Will the BDA eventually become more powerful than the DVD Forum? Personally I think it could happen in as little as 3 years but I am curious to see how many people think that it will never happen. Also to clarify what I meant by "more powerful" I was thinking along the lines of total economic effect on the marketplace.

Poll?

Poll?Yes, and discussion about the topic is welcome as well. Also for anyone wondering why he asked the thread is made before the poll is made when you make a poll on AVS Forum.

I think much of it depends on how well the BDA mobilizes a plan of brainwa... er... education. If they can get the average consumer to recognize that there's something called "Blu-ray" out there and that it's "better than DVD", they'll succeed.

I was a little iffy about whether or not Blu-ray could become mainstream, but I recently came to the realization that there are a number of still-powerful entities out there whose fortunes are tied inextricably to the success of optical media. Blockbuster and Netflix are the obvious winners if Blu-ray successfully holds off a major shift towards video-on-demand, and most brick and mortar retailers "win" in this scenario as well, so I'm expecting that all of the above will be joining the CEs and studios in their attempts to publicize Blu-ray (and probably demonize DVD while they're at it).

I voted YES since it is likely that members of the DVD Forum ( that haven't already ) will join the BDA. The BDA has a year to get its act together in order to have a chance of replacing DVDs or VOD. The standards should be finalized with Profile 2.0.

The DVD Forum is not very powerful, period, first of all. They established the DVD format, and basically nothing at all since then. They accomplished nothing with recordable DVDs; witness the + and - versions, which are basically equal in the market (or maybe + is a bit ahead, having had DL discs available first). The forum's HD disc format has now failed, and there is probably nothing else the DVD Forum can decide or promote that will carry any weight in the home-entertainment business. For example, if the Apple or Microsoft HD download systems started to gain real market share in a few years, like 10-20% of rental revenue for either, but then the DVD Forum came out with a different system even with some big partners, do you think the MS/Apple one would just shrink away then? Since there is no "power" there, the BDA has nothing to take over from the DVD Forum.

If you are just asking whether BD will eventually sell more copies then the same title on DVD, that is a different question, but is not related to 'BDA versus DVD Forum'.

I voted no.

Before the BDA could overrun the DVD Forum the Forum would rather throw them a bone and accomplish the Blu-Ray as the official offspring of the DVD.

BTW: The DVD Forum lists more than 800 members. So it's 800 vs 8.

how about a 3rd option. An "I dunno" option

BTW: The DVD Forum lists more than 800 members. So it's 800 vs 8.

800 vs. ~270 you mean.

Pretty much all the members of the BDA are also DVD Forum members in some capacity. Of the Nine Founders of the BDA, several are very high ranking members of the DVD Forum.

The DVD Forum's realm of influence is DVD. The BDA's realm of influence is Blu-ray. These are not mutually in opposition to each other, so it doesn't matter how powerful the DVD Forum is because they have no interest in Blu-ray, and it doesn't matter how powerful the BDA becomes because they have no interest in DVD and their members are all DVD Forum members anyways and they participate in the DVD Forum for DVD-related matters.

I believe the BDA has made the DVD Forum irrelevant by retaining there positions in the Forum but also directly competing against its formats and approved standards.

how about a 3rd option. An "I dunno" optionJust my preference since in an internet forum poll I like encouraging people to make a choice so if they vote in the poll they vote for the option they consider most likely.


I believe the BDA has made the DVD Forum irrelevant by retaining there positions in the Forum but also directly competing against its formats and approved standards.Well just to point this out but it would be illegal to make the standards of an organization binding which is why HP and Thomson could remain members of the Board of Directors in the BDA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association) even when they started supporting HD DVD. As such this situation has been seen in both the BDA and DVD Forum and there are many companies that are members of both. In my opinion it is a good thing that standards aren't binding in an organization since I consider both DVD+R/RW and Blu-ray to be better than the competing standards that were made in the DVD Forum.

Of course it will.

DVD will go away eventually, and then all that will be left will be BD.

Seggers

DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.

DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.

Yeah. And even then. Who tells you that all the people with a HDTV are going to buy into Blu-Ray?

Yeah. And even then. Who tells you that all the people with a HDTV are going to buy into Blu-Ray?

They won't. The TV penetration is 98% of all households so there are 16% that do not have a DVD player.

And as we know, many people are buying HDTV's for the form factor and not to get HD.

DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.

i believe that.

we will see in the next couple of years if bd + dvd actually grows or bd + dvd shrinks with bd growing and dvd evaporating.

if the overall market for bd + dvd is shrinking then i guess the people are moving on.

They won't. The TV penetration is 98% of all households so there are 16% that do not have a DVD player.

And as we know, many people are buying HDTV's for the form factor and not to get HD.

as strange as this might be to us on avs some people also don't want hdtv because of the form factor. lots of people have furniture based on the old cube shaped tvs and how the furniture looks is more important to a lot of consumers (a lot of females for example).

if the overall market for bd + dvd is shrinking then i guess the people are moving on.


of course overall bd + dvd will shrink, Its too damn obvious. Its an outdated way to deliver content. The internet just cuts out the middle man over time. BD and DVD are simply distribution middle men.

In the end we will all download the content we want to watch or hear so WHO CARES about either in the end.

I don't think it will be as popular as DVD and could and will end up as the same as HD DVD. As soon as HD downloads pick up steam and move into the main stream why would you want a plastic disk with whatever format (DVD, BD,...)???

I don't think it will be as popular as DVD and could and will end up as the same as HD DVD. As soon as HD downloads pick up steam and move into the main stream why would you want a plastic disk with whatever format (DVD, BD,...)???

some people just like to collect shiny things. :)

some people just like to collect shiny things

Yep but in this debate that .005% of the population doesnt matter.

Isnt all these debates about what the majority of people want and use? AVers are generally not normal and they definitely are not the average person ;)

I think BR will have a VERY tough time killing DVD. I think there simply aren't enough people that even care about HD. My personal experience confirms other's comments that no more than 50% of HDTV owners even bother to get an HD source. Of those that do, many have a tuner connected with an S-video connector - or even worse, a composite cable. People like big flat panels and wide-screen, but most couldn't tell the difference between SD and HD.

I was recently discussing this with a salesman at a high end store. I suggested that probably was not the case with his customers, since they were spending more for the very best. He said that was definitely NOT the case! In some cases where they had installed a high-end system, they found people watching a local SD channel rather than the HD channel. Most people seemed indifferent to the suggestion that it would be better to watch the HD channel.

This indifference to quality picture or sound seems pretty widespread. I guess Warner will just have to quit making DVDs too!

It may even be that DVD's success over VHS was due more to features than PQ. Everyone could appreciate the durability, size, and random access of the DVD - and they didn't even have to rewind! The only real advantage to BR is picture quality - and who cares? Apparently only a few of us!

Dave

Yep but in this debate that .005% of the population doesnt matter.

Isnt all these debates about what the majority of people want and use? AVers are generally not normal and they definitely are not the average person ;)

i agree with that. imo bd could be called blu ray laserdisc. it only seems to be wanted by people like me who are into the av hobby. in my experience so far, normal people couldn't care less.

Im out there daily in the real world, golf tournaments, fund raisers, conferences and so on. The real world doesnt have a clue about HD and doesnt care. I dont have a friend or a family member that cares about it.

Dave, is right PEOPLE DONT CARE AND NEVER WILL!!!

btw, I love too watch it dont get me wrong but when I can not play it through my full house HTPC system without problems its A CRAPPY SOLUTION.

Just my preference since in an internet forum poll I like encouraging people to make a choice so if they vote in the poll they vote for the option they consider most likely.


Well just to point this out but it would be illegal to make the standards of an organization binding which is why HP and Thomson could remain members of the Board of Directors in the BDA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association) even when they started supporting HD DVD. As such this situation has been seen in both the BDA and DVD Forum and there are many companies that are members of both. In my opinion it is a good thing that standards aren't binding in an organization since I consider both DVD+R/RW and Blu-ray to be better than the competing standards that were made in the DVD Forum.


This is in complete conflict to belonging to the DVD Forum in the first place.

This is an organazation built on the principles of its members voting for and agreeing to set media standards for the industry so that there is not format wars such as Betamax vs VHS, BR vs HD.

What good is it for there to be an organazation built on member agreement to standards if the same members don't agree to follow those standards and directly compete against anything that doesnt go there way?

of course overall bd + dvd will shrink, Its too damn obvious. Its an outdated way to deliver content.

+1 if the measure of success is market penetration.

DVD came to market at a perfect time. Alternate forms of content delivery were almost non-existent; Cable + Sat penetration was lower & VOD & PPV options were limitted at best. Any discussion of movie downloads seemed rediculous. Video tapes were a horrible format, yet introduced people to playing movies in the home.

Things are so incredibly different now. A more interesting poll might to be speculate what % of houshold penetration BD will after 10 years.

+1 if the measure of success is market penetration.

DVD came to market at a perfect time. Alternate forms of content delivery were almost non-existent; Cable + Sat penetration was lower & VOD & PPV options were limitted at best. Any discussion of movie downloads seemed rediculous. Video tapes were a horrible format, yet introduced people to playing movies in the home.

Things are so incredibly different now. A more interesting poll might to be speculate what % of houshold penetration BD will after 10 years.

Agreed on every point:

BD + DVD < max sales of DVD.
BD < max sales of DVD.

DVD was a perfect storm. It was cheaper than tape, convenient, added features (menus, extras), greatly improved PQ/AQ. Due to low replication cost and low hardware cost is reached massive economies of scale.

This will never happen again. BD is just DVD++. Now I think it will succeed. It will sell billions but it will never be as "big" as DVD was/is. For the record DVD in the future will never be as big as it was.

I would certainly think the BDA will become more important than the DVD Forum. My thinking is that the DVD Forum's early expectations for DVD were far exceeded. Due to the great success of DVD, the BDA will be looked at more closely to see if they can help push BD to become the replacement to DVD. It won't happen overnight but I think in time BD will become the mainstream format of choice as prices get lower and lower and more people will have friends and family who own BD players and won't want to be left out. I mean the day when Best Buy is advertising a new release Transformers 3 BD for only $15.99 on new release Tuesday, why wouldn't consumers pick it up rather than the DVD. These HDTVs are great with sports and TV programs but they only get put to more good use with the addition of BD.

as strange as this might be to us on avs some people also don't want hdtv because of the form factor. lots of people have furniture based on the old cube shaped tvs and how the furniture looks is more important to a lot of consumers (a lot of females for example).

You couldn't be more right. My parents have a 27" JVC tube tv that they have fit snug inside an expensive solid oak entertainment center. They are looking for a tv that will fit inside it.

I'm pretty sure it'll take more than just BD to kill DVD. Even if BD takes off like a rocket in the next few years (which it very well may), DVD has enormous amounts of production facilities online for both hardware and discs, and it will take more than 10 years to obsolesce them.

As such, no matter how cheap BD production gets, DVD will always be cheaper, and it's going to be very hard to BD to ever get close to DVD's market penetration, let alone surpass it. For that to happen, we'd have to see retailers and studios stop producing DVDs - and that in turn is dependent on future Blu-ray hardware not being compatible with standard DVD (which is technically possible under the spec, but this provision has almost never been used except for perhaps the occasional BD-only burner).

Besides, there's going to be content that just doesn't need the extras that BD brings to the table; and will be for a long, long time.

The DVD forum never had power to begin with.
Most of its major members are also BDA members, remember that the authorities had to step in cause the BDA was actually controlling the forum to delay the release of HDDVD. Thats how weak they are.

Perhaps the biggest evidence is the fact that HDDVD lost despite having the official support of the DVD forum.

Sony is the vice chairman of the DVD forum btw.
http://www.dvdforum.org/41scmtg-resolution.htm

Isn't it all the same companies anyways? Except Toshiba isn't in the BDA yet?

DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.
I couldn't agree more. Although perhaps neither HD DVD nor Blu-ray would have had a chance to displace DVD, I think choosing Blu-ray to carry the flag was a move that is certain to fail. While there are several reasons, one reigns supreme: Blu-ray has nothing to offer the millions upon millions of people who own portable DVD players, car-based DVD players, cheap DVD players attached to smaller televisions, etc. The BDA will have a very difficult time convincing people (especially families with kids) that they must pay 30-40 dollars for a Blu-ray movie, and then, oops, they also have to pay for a standard definition DVD version for all of their other players. The plain fact is that for any application other than display on a very large TV with at least a decent surround sound system, Blu-ray has exactly ZERO advantage over DVD (and one giant disadvantage where cost is concerned).

The ubiquity of playback devices with small display screens is served quite well by SD DVD. When a product meets consumer expectations, and happens to be dirt cheap these days, it is almost impossible to displace it. This is also an area where the physical limitations of the consumer himself, such as maximum visual acuity, represent an absolute limitation on how much technology he needs. The BDA could come up with billion pixel, trillion color Blu-ray discs tomorrow, and for small-screen applications it still wouldn't matter one bit. The average person would be unable to see a substantial difference to justify the very substantial price.

Ironically enough, the one format the studios decided to kick to the curb, HD DVD, does (did?) have something to offer these consumers in the form of the combo HD/SD disc, and/or the twindisc; a disc that only needs to be purchased once and which then works in ALL playback devices whether HD or SD. HD DVD was also offering consumers pricing that made sense (on the hardware side anyway). Oh well, if the studio heads really knew anything they wouldn't routinely spend hundreds of millions of dollars making obvious box office bombs, now would they? This was just one more poorly thought out decision. Par for the course.

Mark my words, Blu-ray will bomb too precisely because it is a format that was designed not to give the consumer what they want, but to give SONY what it wants. Always a bad business move. I wish this weren't so. I am an HD DVD supporter, but would love to see Blu-ray thrive now since in the end I just want to see movies in the highest quality possible. I don't think it's going to happen, though.

^

I don't think HD/DVD combos were the answer. Selling a disc to someone for three times the price while making it more fragile and cutting the quality (remember, only 1 layer on the DVD side!) isn't a very good solution. Twin discs were even worse, being only single sided on both formats.

What's the point of a 15GB HD DVD Twin compared to a 9GB DVD? Sure, you have a better codec to use, but you also have six times as many pixels to try and represent.

If triple layer HD DVD DL/SD DVD Twins were viable, don't you think they would have produced them? As it was, the triple layer Combos (which were just glued together) had noticeable QC problems. I can't imagine how bad the failure rate on TL Twins would have been.

^

I don't think HD/DVD combos were the answer. Selling a disc to someone for three times the price while making it more fragile and cutting the quality (remember, only 1 layer on the DVD side!) isn't a very good solution. Twin discs were even worse, being only single sided on both formats.

What's the point of a 15GB HD DVD Twin compared to a 9GB DVD? Sure, you have a better codec to use, but you also have six times as many pixels to try and represent.

If triple layer HD DVD DL/SD DVD Twins were viable, don't you think they would have produced them? As it was, the triple layer Combos (which were just glued together) had noticeable QC problems. I can't imagine how bad the failure rate on TL Twins would have been.
I certainly don't know what the combo failure rate was, but I never experienced the slightest hiccup. I wasn't aware that the SD DVD side of a combo is limited to a single layer. I take you at your word since I don't know, so if true, that would be a valid consideration.

Regarding the twindisc, a 30gb HD DVD / 4.7gb DVD triple layer format was announced in 2006. I don't know if any further refinement occurred after that, but even that configuration makes it a very viable option, although admittedly still a bit small on the SD DVD portion.

Regardless, Blu-ray has a combo/twindisc capacity of exactly zero gigabytes, since it doesn't support anything of the kind. More than ever, consumers value and demand portability and convenience in their audio and video media. SD DVD has those needs covered in spades, and for minimal cost. I still see no evidence that Blu-ray has anything to offer consumers in these areas (unless the BDA seriously thinks people will spend exhorbitant amounts of money to purchase portable/car/boat/whatever Blu-ray players, if and when they become available, only to see no discernable difference in picture quality....not to mention; who needs True-HD, uncompressed PCM, or DTS HD MA on a device with speakers the size of half-dollars?).

No, HD DVD appears to have been much better thought out, while Blu-ray has had, and still has the appearance of a format that was rushed to market in an incomplete state for the sole purpose of creating a media monopoly (OK, maybe an oligopoly). Let's face it, if not for a certain VIDEO GAME SYSTEM, there would be no Blu-ray at all.

Like I said, I truly hope I am wrong and that Blu-ray takes over the world, because I don't want to see happen to movie media what happened to music media...settling for mediocre quality because Sony wouldn't play nice (SACD vs. DVD-A). All the indicators, however, point in a quite different direction.

I certainly don't know what the combo failure rate was, but I never experienced the slightest hiccup. I wasn't aware that the SD DVD side of a combo is limited to a single layer. I take you at your word since I don't know, so if true, that would be a valid consideration.
All of the HD/SD combo discs on the market are 30GB/5GB.

Regarding the twindisc, a 30gb HD DVD / 4.7gb DVD triple layer format was announced in 2006. I don't know if any further refinement occurred after that, but even that configuration makes it a very viable option, although admittedly still a bit small on the SD DVD portion.
The only Twin discs that ever made it on the market were 15GB/5GB discs (Freedom Vol 1 and 2). 30/5's never made it into production - for what reason is anyone's guess, but I'd hazard it was probably a combination of high cost, unreliability and/or insufficient yield.

Regardless, Blu-ray has a combo/twindisc capacity of exactly zero gigabytes, since it doesn't support anything of the kind. More than ever, consumers value and demand portability and convenience in their audio and video media. SD DVD has those needs covered in spades, and for minimal cost. I still see no evidence that Blu-ray has anything to offer consumers in these areas (unless the BDA seriously thinks people will spend exhorbitant amounts of money to purchase portable/car/boat/whatever Blu-ray players, if and when they become available, only to see no discernable difference in picture quality....not to mention; who needs True-HD, uncompressed PCM, or DTS HD MA on a device with speakers the size of half-dollars?).
I don't recall DVD being backward compatible with VHS, or CD being backward compatible with casette tape, and those seemed to do just fine.

Sure, it'd be nice to have some sort of Twin disc (JVC actually had something in the works for a Blu-ray/DVD Twin disc, but eventually gave up on it being economically unfeasible). Is it necessary, though? Past history would suggest no.

No, HD DVD appears to have been much better thought out, while Blu-ray has had, and still has the appearance of a format that was rushed to market in an incomplete state for the sole purpose of creating a media monopoly (OK, maybe an oligopoly). Let's face it, if not for a certain VIDEO GAME SYSTEM, there would be no Blu-ray at all.
HD DVD did have some nice polish on its player spec, but it, too was rushed to market. Take a look at the burners available for each format; the single HD DVD burner that made it to the market was dreadfully slow and unreliable. Blu-ray burners are easily accessible, faster, cheaper, and more reliable.

Mentioning the PS3 is neither here nor there, since it's all rather water under the bridge.

Like I said, I truly hope I am wrong and that Blu-ray takes over the world, because I don't want to see happen to movie media what happened to music media...settling for mediocre quality because Sony wouldn't play nice (SACD vs. DVD-A). All the indicators, however, point in a quite different direction.
The BDA's been pretty good about letting people in; I think the only people they've been wary of are the Chinese CEs who have been bootlegging the DVD spec for years and refusing to pay royalties to the DVD Forum.

The question still remains about whether the BDA can convince the public that Blu-ray is a better mass market alternative value proposition than the aging DVD, but it's far too early to make that call right now.

Great points Icemage.

Lets face it the PS3 is here :D Another thing to face is MS didn't take Toshiba's desire to want to integrate an HD DVD player and here we are today. ;)

You make some very good points Icemage; you're obviously very knowledgeable about this subject. One area where I would still disagree is when you said:

"I don't recall DVD being backward compatible with VHS, or CD being backward compatible with casette tape, and those seemed to do just fine."

I think the current situation is different from VHS vs DVD or cassette vs CD because in pretty much every type of usage, DVD's offered a clearly superior (and more convenient) experience to that provided by VHS tape, and the same could be said about CD's. Blu-ray played back on a 7" screen (as an example) would offer no similar advantage over DVD.

All of the HD/SD combo discs on the market are 30GB/5GB.

Just curious but are you sure?

I own three HD DVD combo discs. The Kingdom, The Bourne Ultimatum and Animal House. The SD side of each is dual layer.

I think the current situation is different from VHS vs DVD or cassette vs CD because in pretty much every type of usage, DVD's offered a clearly superior (and more convenient) experience to that provided by VHS tape, and the same could be said about CD's. Blu-ray played back on a 7" screen (as an example) would offer no similar advantage over DVD.

I agree. As far as a portable Blu-ray player there is actually a disadvantage. Battery life. Anybody have a guess what the battery life would be on a portable playing a BD disc? The answer - not very good. Down right terrible.

I agree. As far as a portable Blu-ray player there is actually a disadvantage. Battery life. Anybody have a guess what the battery life would be on a portable playing a BD disc? The answer - not very good. Down right terrible.

What was that functionality with blu-ray's and PSP's? Has that started yet?

What was that functionality with blu-ray's and PSP's? Has that started yet?

I don't think so (are there even any plans about mobile playback of Blu-Rays other than playback on mobile computers?)

The only thing I can recall for sure is, that there were already plans for HD-DVD portables (prototypes could be seen on the last CES).

I don't think so (are there even any plans about mobile playback of Blu-Rays other than playback on mobile computers?)

The only thing I can recall for sure is, that there were already plans for HD-DVD portables (prototypes could be seen on the last CES).

Found it, though not released yet.
http://gizmodo.com/342980/blu+ray+to+psp-movie-transfers-how-its-gonna-work

Sony synergy FTW! Sony officially announced Blu-ray-to-PSP movie transfers at CES today. Pop a Blu-ray movie into your PS3, jack in your PSP and download to the portable or a Memory Stick for keeps. It's sorta like pre-ripped iPod rips on DVDs, but on Sony's ball field.

Im out there daily in the real world, golf tournaments, fund raisers, conferences and so on. The real world doesnt have a clue about HD and doesnt care. I dont have a friend or a family member that cares about it.

Dave, is right PEOPLE DONT CARE AND NEVER WILL!!! Never is a very absolute word but that viewpoint does explain the reasoning of why some people voted no in the poll.


This is in complete conflict to belonging to the DVD Forum in the first place.So you would want every company that belongs to the DVD Forum to support every standard the DVD Forum creates and to agree not to compete against those standards?


What good is it for there to be an organazation built on member agreement to standards if the same members don't agree to follow those standards and directly compete against anything that doesnt go there way?I know you supported HD DVD but think carefully of what you are asking for since if organizations were allowed to create binding standards it would severely hinder any competition to that organization. That is why it is illegal for an organization to create binding standards and why neither the DVD Forum or BDA can prevent companies from supporting competing products.

The DVD forum is irrelevant right now. They went against the collective might of the biggest CE manufacturers to thwart Blu-ray. And they lost. Does anyone really care what the DVD forum does now?

The DVD forum is irrelevant right now. They went against the collective might of the biggest CE manufacturers to thwart Blu-ray. And they lost. Does anyone really care what the DVD forum does now?


Irrelevant?

In 2007 the combined sales of HDM came in at 0.58% of the optical media market. 0.58% included both blu and red sales. Meaning SD DVD sales contributed 99.42% of the total. Or 99.42% of a $24 billion market.

I do not believe SD DVD has been deemed irrelevant because Toshiba decided to exit the HDM market.

It was a great win for Blu-ray as far as high def is concerned but that's about it.

The members who create these polls really need to include timeframes, otherwise the poll is useless. Are you talking by Christmas? In two years? In ten years? What???

Just curious but are you sure?

I own three HD DVD combo discs. The Kingdom, The Bourne Ultimatum and Animal House. The SD side of each is dual layer.

I rarely quote myself but are there any others out there with HD DVD combo discs that are in fact dual layer on the SD side?

Way to early to tell give it a couple of years.

Of course it will.

DVD will go away eventually, and then all that will be left will be BD.

Seggers


I think you have it the other way around.

Just a question to throw out there.
I haven't read this thread but doesn't the fact that the BDDA defied the DVD Forum by making Blu Ray and winning show that they are already stronger then the DVD Forum?

If the BDA wasn't stronger then the DVD Forum, HD-DVD would have won out right?

Just a question to throw out there.
I haven't read this thread but doesn't the fact that the BDDA defied the DVD Forum by making Blu Ray and winning show that they are already stronger then the DVD Forum?

If the BDA wasn't stronger then the DVD Forum, HD-DVD would have won out right?


Well there is also the argument that the high def war was much ado about nothing.
Time will tell. But the money grab based on recent trends is not in the high def favor.

This could change.

The real dough currently is in SD DVD. 99+% of the market. Exit strategies may have been based on the fact that the high def optical market was deemed not worth it. Not worth the cost of the battle.

I guess we'll see how well Sony does. The track record over recent formats Sony has chosen has not been good. But I would not count Sony out.

Tough road to hoe though.

Just curious but are you sure?

I own three HD DVD combo discs. The Kingdom, The Bourne Ultimatum and Animal House. The SD side of each is dual layer.
Hmm... it seems you are right, and that they did in fact take the plunge on later combo releases and go dual layer DVD-9 on the flip side as well.

Odd that this was never publicized; I remember looking at the specs on combo discs at one point and not seeing any quad-layer discs, but a spot check on those titles does indicate they are DVD-9 on the back side. Actually, perhaps it's not such a surprise that they never publicized it - it's not always a good idea to tell consumers they shelled out $30+ for a product with less quality than expected.

Nonetheless, I do stand corrected. :)

In a word no!!! Only 33% of US homes have hdtv's and they have made about every mastake in the book on releasing thier format so far. Releasing 3 profiles of players when they should have released 2.0 players out of the gate, but refused due to greed. BDJ has become so problematic that newer encrypted titles will not play on older players and the instruction manual even says so. At CES 2008 the BDA states they cannot guarantee playback of newer titles with 1.0 players. On the complaint of consumers not being able to access the newer features on discs like 1.1 and 2.0 stuff they say "The consumers knew what they were getting into." Bluray is the laserdisc of the 21st century and will never take over from dvd.

You make some very good points Icemage; you're obviously very knowledgeable about this subject. One area where I would still disagree is when you said:

"I don't recall DVD being backward compatible with VHS, or CD being backward compatible with casette tape, and those seemed to do just fine."

I think the current situation is different from VHS vs DVD or cassette vs CD because in pretty much every type of usage, DVD's offered a clearly superior (and more convenient) experience to that provided by VHS tape, and the same could be said about CD's. Blu-ray played back on a 7" screen (as an example) would offer no similar advantage over DVD.
Don't mistake my position as being overly optimistic for Blu-ray. I think the BDA has a very long way to go to convince the general public to abandon DVD and dive into high definition, but they do at least have a chance to do so.

Display size isn't exactly the issue - resolution and reproduction are; I find DVDs barely watchable on even a small portable device, largely due to the excessive amounts of EE and macroblocking that are often present. It wouldn't surprise me to see 720p Blu-ray portables show up at some point. I think if we start seeing such units show up in quantity, that would be a leading indicator that Blu-ray would be successful.

Another market space to watch is the PC market, where Blu-ray drives offer better storage and durability versus DVD-9. If prices come down on that hardware (and it should), and the blanks become much more affordable (which they also should), that's going to give Blu-ray another shot in the arm for reaching further economy of scale (it already has two sources of demand, from movies as well as PS3 games).

This is, in fact, how DVD managed to get so inexpensive; DVD is used in many, many applications, not just for movies, and it is the sum total of the demand that drove the commoditization curve for DVD so low that you can now buy a blank DVD for pennies, and why you can pick up a movie DVD in a bargain bin for $5.

Did DVD Forum have any power to start with? If you think about it, first we had chinese companies making DVD players and walmart selling them at less than the royalties that was supposed to be collected by the DVD FLLC. Then we had financially successful operations of millions (perhaps tens of millions) of bootleg DVDs pressed at factories sold in major metropolitan centers of practically every affluent western and eastern country.

And throughout all this, DVD FLLC appears to be powerless to do anything about it.

I guess they never had much power to start with.

Since the original question is about the future of the DVD forum (did they prevent a war, I can't remember who stopped it that time?)

Would it not seem that the studio issue and the securing of content is going to be the main concern at this venture?

All the talk of downloads of true HD content has me amused. Not for years in most venues in the USA.

The content providers will stand strong together to secure their property. Can't fault them for that. The DVD standard is too compromised.

My hope is that they get smart and release SD DVD and BD discs at the same msrp.