By participating in the contest, you agree to the following:

1- Nielsen/VideoScan gets a statistically significant amount of sales data. It does not get all data, but the amount it gets is far more than sufficient to be useful and statistically significant.
2- If the studios had aligned differently, things would be different. See, we all agree on that now. There is no need to discuss it ad nauseam.
3- If not for BOGOs and other sales, things would be different.
4- Whoever decided to sign a contract that bound a studio to a format after it announced it's own death is a major league idiot.
5- Studios have made decisions based on factors confessed to and not confessed to. What those factors are is irrelevant to any possible on topic discussion in this thread.
6- People make predictions based on a wide variety of assumptions and for different reasons. Do not make fun of the person make fun of the pick, especially if it does not add up to 100%.
7- Saying the real contest is now Blu-ray vs. DVD and then posting the ratio for that is not witty or clever. Oh, it might have been when it was done the first time. That is in the past. All it does now is make the poster look petty.
8- Yes, this thread is not the most relevant thread in the universe. People coming in here and commenting on how pointless it is really should get out some more. Talk to some girls, breath some fresh air, that sort of thing. People who lack the sense to not click on a thread that is clearly labeled and on a topic that does not interest them likely have a far more serious problem.
9- While discussion of the various calendars is fascinating, this is not the place for it.
10- This list is likely to get longer as time goes by.

If you are unable to follow these rules, you will get a warning. If you break them again, I will put you on ignore. Actually, you will likely be asked by the mods to not post in the thread again.

The wind down continues with HD DVD getting what may be it's last major hit.

Paramount unleashes Beowulf on HD DVD, exclusively for now. It is joined by Warner's The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford as the other major release in a slate of 8 titles, including a box set of the three previously released episodes of Freedom from Bandai Visual along side the new release of the fourth episode.

Blu-ray gets Sony's release of the vampire thriller 30 Days of Night and the timed exclusive of Warner's new direct to DVD and Blu-ray animated Justice League movie as the major studios part of an 8 release schedule.

There are no neutral releases this week.

As always, thanks to manikin for maintaining the release schedule.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on March 7th will cover sales from February 25th-March 2nd, inclusive.


HD DVD
Beowulf (2007)(Paramount)
Rain in the Mountains (Vanguard Cinema)
The Brave One (Warner)
Freedom: 1-3 Giftset (Bandai Visual)
Freedom: 4 (Bandai Visual)
Cecilia & Bryn At Glyndebourne (Opus Arte)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner)
Gustav Mahler: Symphony No. 2 Resurrection (EuroArts)

Blu-ray
30 Days of Night (Sony)
To Kill a King (Starz)
Beyonce: The Beyonce Experience - Live (Sony BMG)
Justice League: The New Frontier (Warner)
Led Zeppelin: The Song Remains the Same (Warner)
Intial D (Tai Seng)
Over America In High Definition (Topics)
Over California In High Definition (Topics)

Just one perfect pick this week for DC_pilgrim. Well done!

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81
4 136 14 91 (10) [26] 81 60 (21) [96] 77.58 79 78
5 110 0 96 (23) [109] 73 70 (3) [1] 85.32 85 85
6 88 1 92 (15) [62] 77 60 (17) [25] 79.30 80 80

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.


Nielsen contest results for 02/29/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 77:23

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
dpags 76:24 5 2.80
ehomer 81:19 5 3.60
patrick99 80:20 5 4.00
petetheaxe 81:19 1 4.00
dad1153 81:19 1 4.00
dc_pilgrim 77:23 6 4.17
Kemet 76:24 5 4.20
Woodshed 72:28 5 4.20
online 75:25 6 4.33
Sketcha 75:25 6 4.33
theflux 75:25 6 4.33
SGRSBSKIER 71:29 6 4.33
opfreak 78:22 3 4.33
Staying Salty 74:26 5 4.40
Jiffylush 80:20 6 4.50
bato 79:21 6 4.50
Fran O'Hern 78:22 6 4.50
darinp2 69:31 6 4.50
Rich Peterson 80:20 6 4.67
tomsteeper 79:21 6 4.67
phansson 84:16 6 4.83
ottscay 82:18 6 4.83
basano 81:19 6 4.83
merlintl 80:20 6 4.83
neillkrin 80:20 6 4.83
Random Digital 80:20 6 4.83
Neo1965 79:21 6 4.83
HuntzHD 78:22 6 4.83
UxiSXRD 78:22 6 4.83
Winn 78:22 6 4.83
Richard Paul 78:22 6 5.00
user friendly 75:25 6 5.00
eightninesuited 72:28 6 5.00
Jackietreehorn 76:24 5 5.00
Monty22001 84:16 4 5.00
iamian 72:28 1 5.00
lomax 80:20 6 5.17
iamitman 65:35 6 5.17
ICBM99 79:21 5 5.20
Steve Schauer 82:18 6 5.33
jmcq 81:19 6 5.33
chirpie 79:21 6 5.33
Greg Kettell 82:18 6 5.67
nick_weasel 80:20 6 5.67
DarkAdept 79:21 6 5.67
spazzcat 76:24 3 5.67
crimsona 86:14 4 5.75
MrPorterhouse 86:14 6 5.83
MASrules 82:18 6 5.83
brianmonkey 80:20 6 5.83
swedcrip 80:20 6 5.83
BritInVA 76:24 5 6.00
elikhom 83:17 6 6.17
rcase13 83:17 6 6.17
Ktak 81:19 6 6.17
Maxphoenix5 72:28 4 6.25
rlsmith 68:32 6 6.33
fitprod 80:20 5 6.40
spacejamz 84:16 6 6.50
galperi1 76:24 6 6.50
Jallopy 75:25 6 6.50
dstewart 85:15 6 6.67
JAC6 83:17 6 6.67
soremekun 82:18 6 6.67
datobin1 64:36 6 6.83
Aresca 86:14 6 7.00
jling84 82:18 6 7.00
manikin 80:20 6 7.00
nyg 90:10 5 7.00
splinters 90:10 3 7.00
Leviathan25 85:15 6 7.17
Icemage 73:27 6 7.17
MarekM 81:19 6 7.33
klac 79:21 6 7.33
mike179179 65:35 3 7.33
bplewis 89:11 6 7.67
frizshizzle 88:12 6 7.67
Mel2 81:19 5 8.00
onkeh 85:15 3 8.00
MRMOTA 79:21 5 8.20
gand41f 90:10 6 8.33
Newbie 92:8 6 8.67
JamesDFarrow 87:13 6 8.67
aaronwt 68:32 6 8.83
Dave Mack 86:14 1 9.00
Ethos99 88:12 1 11.00
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 6 12.67
Shmack 60:40 6 13.33

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

Once again I am putting up a $10 gift certificate. Someone jokingly suggested donating a player as a prize and I am going to run with that idea. I will be accepting prize donations. If anyone has two copies of a movie and want to donate one or got a movie in a giveaway they just do not want, here is a way to get rid of them instead of trying to get a buck for them on eBay.

It is looking like we might not get to 10 weeks. This leaves a question of what to do with the prize donation I have recieved. Spacejamz donated a copy of Spiderman 3.

Suggestions welcome.

70:30

Due to discounted discs.

79:21

80:20

72:28

74:26

76:24

Brandon

77:23

A slight correction to the release slate for this week's contest.

I believe Dragon Tiger Gate [HD DVD] was cancelled by Tai Seng, and will be instead released on Blu-ray on May 27.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?p=803208#post803208

---

Realistically this week boils down to Beowulf + firesales versus 30 Days of Night. American Gangster will probably chip in some residuals, too.

I think Beowulf will pick up more excitement than American Gangster, while 30 Days of Night doesn't seem like it would be such a big seller.

Add in the progressively lower prices on HD DVD stock at many retailers, and I'm going to have to guess:

71 : 29

76:24

81:19

75:25

Blu-ray 78:22 HDDVD


My inclination would be closer to 72-75 for BD but I think the weight of all the previous annoucements is going to be weighing increasingly heavy.

74:26

76:24

49:51

75:25

Due to low volume and a good HD DVD release.

70:30

73:27

81:19. 30 days will dominate the charts. sold out around my area.

82:18

hmm, AG and Beowulf in the top 10....

So, 69:31 should be spot on.

79:21

Wasn't Beyonce postponed?
http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Street_Date_Changes/Music_on_High-Def/Sony_BMG/Sony_BMG_Bumps_Beyonce_Experience_Blu-ray/1470

74:26

I believe the last week where HD DVD will keep it this close.

But ive been wrong before as my track record shows :o

80:20

75:25

79:21

81:19

67:33

20:80 :p :D

75:25

I'm going to let it ride at 60:40. :D

This is fun!

75:25

78:22

71:29

75:25

70:30

That cat's gotta land soon.

81:19

81 : 19

76:24

Well, lets try for two and a row:

72:28

77:23

90:10

76:24

76:24

73:27 as retailers try to clear inventory. I see another week or two of credible sales before the channel starts to shift aggressively toward Blu-ray. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

85:15

70:30

78:22 Blu

81:19

76:24

I'm going to let it ride at 60:40. :D

This is fun!

I've changed my mind. With HD DVD releases drying up :(, this could be my last chance to go all out for HD DVD.

So I think I'll go with 45:55 in favor of HD DVD. :cool:

Come on Beowulf . . . let's rip the heart out of that beast! :)

58:42 Beowulf sales were strong at HV!

91:9

76:24

I'll go 77:23 for Blu-ray. Residuals from "American Gangster" plus "Beowulf" (a title custom-made for HDM and one of the last bonafide blockbusters that will appear on HD-DVD) and firesales won't match the day-and-date power of "30 Days of Night" (also a movie tailor-made for HDM) and the growing BD sales. The last (or next to last) week HD-DVD will have HDM sales above 20%.

75:25

76:24

78:22

56 entries so far.

80:20

74:26

78:22

its a slow time of the year.

i just got back from frys, they moved the HDM section to the outside isle.

HDM is now very visible, its almost all blu but there is still MORE HD-DVDs then there were last week. they just went from one 1/6 of a isle for both to the whole isle. so Blu-Ray expanded the most but HD-DVD still doubled in size.

i forgot about this last week, dag nab it..

anyway,

79:21

"I was out, but they dragged me back in!" -Godfather III

69:31

Next week should be even more interesting, now that Universal has finally slashed list prices. I think a lot of people waiting to act on their lesser tier choices will spring for them now. I know I did.

72:28

The firesales have to be affecting the numbers.

damn firesales

77:23

Eh, why not?

71:29.

damn firesales

77:23

Damn Blu-Ray BOGOs throught 2007! :mad:

78:22

76:24

79:21

78:22

--Darin

74:26

-- Beowulf is a bit of a help to HD DVD, nothing special on Blu-ray.
-- Firesales blazing, hard to figure out the effect.
-- Paramount announcements may have dampened general enthusiasm for HD DVD even at firesale prices.

I was in the 60's last week and got destroyed, so this week I am trying to fit in the middle someplace.

Damn Blu-Ray BOGOs throught 2007! :mad:

:D for me as 50+ blu-ray's most were $10-15. Though HD DVD had them as well I wish both sides had them every week :cool:

79/21

78:22

78:22

80:20

78:22

78:22 (Not exactly sure how beowulf would do, I assume animation still don't sell well in units even if it becomes the #1 title just because of angelina).

75:25

enjoy
gandalf :o

Ill go 80:20

But one question. How have the disc sales looked? Somebody posted about a month ago the weekly totals and it was cut in half from the first week of Jan to the first week of Feb. Curious if it has seen an uptick since then or if it has remained flat.

78 : 22

80:20

74:26

77:23
exactly the same as last week

76:24

70:30

75:25

Ill go 80:20

But one question. How have the disc sales looked? Somebody posted about a month ago the weekly totals and it was cut in half from the first week of Jan to the first week of Feb. Curious if it has seen an uptick since then or if it has remained flat.

I don't have an answer to your question, but that sales behavior is typical of the industry following the holidays. January DVD sales are always terrible in comparison.

Damn Blu-Ray BOGOs throught 2007! :mad:

let it go already dude...besides, how is that affecting last week's numbers?? :confused:

30 Days of Night will clear number one :)

I will go with 79:21

Marek

78:22

82:18

I'll update the files later, for now I am just closing it with 76-24.

Blu 87:13

James

See:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i9a2f1e72ad0ce6f3246da019d0249f08

for the summary of the week's sales. Here is the hd-relevant comment:

""30 Days of Night" was the top Blu-ray Disc seller for the week, outselling the HD DVD edition of "Beowulf," one of the final big titles to be released on the doomed next-generation format. "

Well, now that makes things interesting. The #1 disc is a Blu-ray, but last week also saw a ton of firesales across most HD DVD titles.

^Hmm, yes it does. I had lowered my prediction into the 70's figuring a hit and hi-def friendly title like Beowulf would be #1 over a no-namer like 30 Days and in combination with the firesales, kinda like a repeat of the American Gangster performance. Maybe the HD-DVD death news is sinking into the masses.

The question though is what legs A.G. has in red in their 2nd week. A.G. is a much more popular title than Beowulf. Beowulf by itself suffers from the animation genre to date not pulling in their boxoffice weight in highdef. The best animation release is still Rat, and that didn't go anywhere near 100k units. A.G. though is in the right genre that normally does well.

30 days of night. Not exactly a big seller in boxoffice or on DVD, so the position at the top is a reflection of the red format's current status. I expect from now on, with no more big titles coming (not day&date, Legend is a 3 week delay), following Beowulf, the trajectory will be predictable, even if the exact landing point and time is not known...

Hollywood Reporter doesn't mince words...

"Beowulf," one of the final big titles to be released on the doomed next-generation format. .

Hollywood Reporter doesn't mince words...



It's more of a factual statement at this point, and on a whole I agree with you. Looking ahead I don't see any particular title that could be #1 for HD DVD. I don't want to completely discount the top 10 though, as the right title at the right price can still sell a lot.

It is hard to see a #1 title coming up.

The best film still to be released on HD DVD is "Atonement", but I don't see that one with enough market interest (unfortunately).

Paramount is no more and Universal is gone after Atonement. The Warners titles are all 3-week-delayed and most of them are not big BO titles, except for I Am Legend. The indie titles announced will not do that well, and some of them may be cancelled anyway.

If I had to pick a possible #1 at this point, it would be I Am Legend.

It is hard to see a #1 title coming up.

The best film still to be released on HD DVD is "Atonement", but I don't see that one with enough market interest (unfortunately).

Paramount is no more and Universal is gone after Atonement. The Warners titles are all 3-week-delayed and most of them are not big BO titles, except for I Am Legend. The indie titles announced will not do that well, and some of them may be cancelled anyway.

If I had to pick a possible #1 at this point, it would be I Am Legend.

HDDVD Legend does have a shot, but it's released 3 weeks after the BD version, that makes it a long shot. The value (and volume) of any title declines rapidly for all shiny disks as residual sales after the 3rd week is very very small.

Time is money in this case, and 3 weeks is a long long time.

HDDVD Legend does have a shot, but it's released 3 weeks after the BD version, that makes it a long shot.Especially if some leak out those first 3 weeks (decreasing the demand for the HD DVD version after its official release date, since some of it will be filled before that).

--Darin

HDDVD Legend does have a shot, but it's released 3 weeks after the BD version, that makes it a long shot. The value (and volume) of any title declines rapidly for all shiny disks as residual sales after the 3rd week is very very small.

Time is money in this case, and 3 weeks is a long long time.

I thought I am Legend would have been the top title when it would be released for HDDVD last week as the only day and date title for BD is Dewey Cox and 2nd week of Alvin and the Chipmunks (I also thought Beowulf would have been the top this week), but with CC expecting to get rid of HDDVD by the end of March, I think that may take away enough sales (at least 15%) to keep it from the #1 spot. (CC is in the top 5 of HDM sales so is Walmart which doesn't count in Nielsen numbers) Along with WB previous statements about doing limited runs on new titles for HDDVD it may be hard to find.

The question though is what legs A.G. has in red in their 2nd week. A.G. is a much more popular title than Beowulf.

In my humble opinion, A.G. won't have a ton of legs this week. My personal speculation sees A.G. releasing the same day that Toshiba dropped the bomb, so most who were going to purchase A.G., already had. Either by way of pre-order or perhaps even buying at a B&M before they even knew about the news.

I actually don't consider Beowulf an "animated" film though it technically is. I thought it would be more popular than A.G. because of the genre of the story. It's catering to the "300" crowd, just with CGI. So I'm under the firm belief that it would've been more successful on HDM than A.G. had there been no Toshiba news to undercut it.

Brandon

Its up

Week: 75:25
YTD: 76:24
SI: 66:34

My first perfect pick of the new year! :)

Its up

Week: 75:25
YTD: 76:24
SI: 66:34

Closer than what I thought.

Arghh...I forgot to post my actual prediction even though i made mention of it yesterday morning in post #102:

^Hmm, yes it does. I had lowered my prediction into the 70's figuring a hit and hi-def friendly title like Beowulf would be #1 over a no-namer like 30 Days and in combination with the firesales, kinda like a repeat of the American Gangster performance. Maybe the HD-DVD death news is sinking into the masses.

Sucks, because I'm currently leading and my prediction would've been 77/23. I'll be more vigilant next time :)

In my humble opinion, A.G. won't have a ton of legs this week. My personal speculation sees A.G. releasing the same day that Toshiba dropped the bomb, so most who were going to purchase A.G., already had. Either by way of pre-order or perhaps even buying at a B&M before they even knew about the news.

I actually don't consider Beowulf an "animated" film though it technically is. I thought it would be more popular than A.G. because of the genre of the story. It's catering to the "300" crowd, just with CGI. So I'm under the firm belief that it would've been more successful on HDM than A.G. had there been no Toshiba news to undercut it.

Brandon

I think Beowulf didnt do as well for the exact reason why 300 originally outsold 2:1 on blu-ray. It appeals to the gamer crowd, and most HD DVD owners are into movies in general rather than gamer-movies. It's also why the Harry Potters and Planet Earth had better ratios.

Its up

Week: 75:25
YTD: 76:24
SI: 66:34

My first perfect pick of the new year! :)
Yeah, good for you. :mad:

I'm off by one!

I think Beowulf didnt do as well for the exact reason why 300 originally outsold 2:1 on blu-ray. It appeals to the gamer crowd, and most HD DVD owners are into movies in general rather than gamer-movies. It's also why the Harry Potters and Planet Earth had better ratios.

This theory has been debunked many times. Need I remind you a large portion of HD DVD owners were using the add-on, and a large portion of non-gamers the PS3.

Makes me wonder what the numbers would have been if Best Buy and Netflix didn't get the whole ball moving with HD DVD's death.

Its amazing what those 2 announcements did.

I know the Warner announcement was the main blow, but those 2 announcements from Best Buy and Netflix really got the "Lets kill HD DVD NOW" bandwagon moving.

I think Beowulf didnt do as well for the exact reason why 300 originally outsold 2:1 on blu-ray. It appeals to the gamer crowd, and most HD DVD owners are into movies in general rather than gamer-movies. It's also why the Harry Potters and Planet Earth had better ratios.

Doubt that, it probably has more to do with the larger number of blu-ray players in the marketplace. Remember we just came off Christmas and a large number of PS3 were sold. This is a pattern that happened last Christmas and likely again next Christmas. This format is still driven by the PS3. Not that this is a bad thing but it is a reality.

Makes me wonder what the numbers would have been if Best Buy and Netflix didn't get the whole ball moving with HD DVD's death.

Its amazing what those 2 announcements did.

I know the Warner announcement was the main blow, but those 2 announcements from Best Buy and Netflix really got the "Lets kill HD DVD NOW" bandwagon moving.

From Toshiba's CEO it seems like the bandwagon was already unstoppable, but Best Buy and Netflix just let everyone know they should get out of its way. Kudos to them for saving customers some money and hassle.

Its up

Week: 75:25
YTD: 76:24
SI: 66:34

My first perfect pick of the new year! :)

Oh well, it was worth a shot, lol! It may not have been 20:80 but at least it wasn't 80:20. :D I honestly thought Beowulf was going to be number 1 though, however 30 Days Of Night wasn't just some "no-namer" like some people here claim. Have you been on the Moon for a year or something? Lol!

Makes me wonder what the numbers would have been if Best Buy and Netflix didn't get the whole ball moving with HD DVD's death.

Its amazing what those 2 announcements did.

I know the Warner announcement was the main blow, but those 2 announcements from Best Buy and Netflix really got the "Lets kill HD DVD NOW" bandwagon moving.

If Warner had remained neutral, we would have already seen HD DVD with two or three winning weeks. The exclusives on the HD DVD side would have finally started to tip the scale towards HD DVD, with more high profile exclusives on the way later in the year. Tipping the scale wasn't enough for Time Warner, so they chose Blu-ray for the faster end to the format war.

I think Beowulf didnt do as well for the exact reason why 300 originally outsold 2:1 on blu-ray. It appeals to the gamer crowd, and most HD DVD owners are into movies in general rather than gamer-movies. It's also why the Harry Potters and Planet Earth had better ratios.

I believe that to this day Transformers and 300 are still two of HD DVDs best sellers, if not the best sellers on the format. This legend that HD DVD owners are the purer of the movie lovers is a bit overblown.

And elaborate on your last sentence for me, I don't quite get your drift. On which format are you saying HP and PE had better ratios and for what reason?

Brandon

Its up

Week: 75:25
YTD: 76:24
SI: 66:34

My first perfect pick of the new year! :)

Dude, off by 1 point. This is the greatest moment of my AVS career.

Brandon

30 days of night is a gamer movie. that is why it beat out beowulf. the PS3 effect kicked in. and once the PS3 effect kicks in. no movie on the other format will beat it.

also what beowulf had against it. is that it cant deliver the 3D cinema experience at home.

does Paramount really think i am going to buy beowulf in HD, while i watched the 3D version in the imax. no way.

every movie i watch in that 3D quality imax delivers i will not buy on HD or dvd for that matter. because when i would watch it at home. i would think i am missing something here.

that 3D experience is just to amazing. it is the true evolution of movies. HD and dvd are nice. but the real evolution start with the true 3D stuff like beowulf.

If Warner had remained neutral, we would have already seen HD DVD with two or three winning weeks.

You should preface that with it being pure speculation/guesswork on your behalf, because I doubt you have anything that can back that up. HD DVD had the #1 title last week plus fire sales of catalog titles and pulled in 23% of the market share. You can add in some sales for consumer confidence in the format if the Warner and Toshiba announcement's don't happen--I'll even grant 10-15% increase--but I hope you understand that it's offset by the lack of fire-sale purchases of catalog titles, even if not completely. And it's not going to be much higher than a 10-15% increase because it's not like people who wanted A.G. or Beowulf could buy it on BD, it's still an exclusive title.

Projecting that into a win (let alone 2 or 3) is making a ton of assumptions that have no precedence set for them. It seems more like wishful thinking than anything else, because it's as though you're speculating about a theoretical world where certain events didn't take place but not taking into account how those same events shaped the current landscape that you're using to make these assumptions. In other words, you can't use numbers that are impacted by a fire sale of software and hardware and talk about how closer they'd be if the events directly leading to the software/hardwire firesale never came about.

And let's just be realistic for a second, don't you think if Warner never went exclusive and Toshiba was still full-go that the BD group would have a few BOGOs in the works for the Beowulf and A.G. weeks? Maybe not a ton more, since this time of year is slow for sales anyway, but at least for those specific weeks.

Brandon

You should preface that with it being pure speculation/guesswork on your behalf, because I doubt you have anything that can back that up. HD DVD had the #1 title last week plus fire sales of catalog titles and pulled in 23% of the market share. You can add in some sales for consumer confidence in the format if the Warner and Toshiba announcement's don't happen, but I hope you understand that it's offset by the lack of fire-sale purchases of catalog titles, even if not completely.

Projecting that into a win (let alone 2 or 3) is making a ton of assumptions that have no precedence set for them. It seems more like wishful thinking than anything else, because it's as though you're speculating about a theoretical world where certain events didn't take place but not taking into account how those same events shaped the current landscape that you're using to make these assumptions. In other words, you can't use numbers that are impacted by a fire sale of software and hardware and talk about how closer they'd be if the events directly leading to the software/hardwire firesale never came about.

And let's just be realistic for a second, don't you think if Warner never went exclusive and Toshiba was still full-go that the BD group would have a few BOGOs in the works for the Beowulf and A.G. weeks? Maybe not a ton more, since this time of year is slow for sales anyway, but at least for those specific weeks.

Brandon

Thanks for the frank admission. :D

Thanks for the frank admission. :D

Well it aint rocket science, nor is it a secret that a BOGO during the Transformers week helped to laed to a victory that week.

30 days of night is a gamer movie. that is why it beat out beowulf.

Ahh, we're back to this again. Thanks for the insight.

Brandon

Hmm.. Beowulf did less well than I expected, if 30 Days of Night (a totally unremarkable title) was able to outsell it. I was expecting Beowulf to win that matchup easily; I wonder what was different about American Gangster?

Next week's numbers are going to be interesting, to say the least, with a much more level playing field. We'll see how far the dead cat can bounce without a major title to get people browsing the shelves.

P.S. How is Beowulf any less of a gamer movie than 30 Days of Night? It's freaking CGI Fantasy - and half the HD DVD ownership has 360 add-ons.

We'll see how far the dead cat can bounce without a major title to get people browsing the shelves.
That dead cat has been bouncing for 2 months now =P Doesnt look like it was ready to die to me.. Euthanized in its prime.

Well it aint rocket science, nor is it a secret that a BOGO during the Transformers week helped to laed to a victory that week.


I know, but so many Blu-Ray fans refuse to admit that Blu-Ray used BOGOs to win weeks and maintain the 2:1 lead. So it's good that you're so honest about it. :)

That dead cat has been bouncing for 2 months now =P Doesnt look like it was ready to die to me.. Euthanized in its prime.

Well then during HD-DVD's prime it was getting outsold 3:1, which was kind of the problem in the first place.

I know, but so many Blu-Ray fans refuse to admit that Blu-Ray used BOGOs to win weeks and maintain the 2:1 lead. So it's good that you're so honest about it. :)I think any reasonable person realizes that Blu-ray did that, while HD DVD used sales, BOGOs and free discs included with players that the user chose (both sides did this some) to get closer some weeks (BOGOs didn't get HD DVD any overall weekly wins) and to maintain just a ~2:1 margin instead of worse for HD DVD. Basically, "free" discs sold in a way that would count (offered with another item) were used by both sides. Even during the week Transformers came out and Blu-ray used BOGOs extensively, HD DVD had sales on discs (Paramount titles at Frys for 2 for $27 for one) and many of us got HD DVDs on BOGO at Circuit City (even though that may have been a mistake on Circuit City's part). Blu-ray was effective with their BOGOs that week, but HD DVD probably wouldn't have done even as well as it did that week or other weeks without some special sales of their own on discs.

HD DVD also had The Bourne Ultimatum on BOGO only 5 days after release and is still the only exclusive day-and-date title I can think of for either format that got a BOGO its first week out. The other title with a similar thing was that last Harry Potter movie, but that was a neutral title.

--Darin

If Warner had remained neutral, we would have already seen HD DVD with two or three winning weeks. The exclusives on the HD DVD side would have finally started to tip the scale towards HD DVD, with more high profile exclusives on the way later in the year. Tipping the scale wasn't enough for Time Warner, so they chose Blu-ray for the faster end to the format war.I guess it all came down to balls, and Sony had more balls than Toshiba. Sony wouldn't have given up on Blu-Ray as easy as Toshiba has given up on HD-DVD. Toshiba blew every chance they had to put the hammer down. Makes me wonder how much confidence they really had going in. It was like Warner was their girlfriend who had left them and instead of moving on, they took the cowards way out and killed themselves.

You should preface that with it being pure speculation/guesswork on your behalf, because I doubt you have anything that can back that up. HD DVD had the #1 title last week plus fire sales of catalog titles and pulled in 23% of the market share. You can add in some sales for consumer confidence in the format if the Warner and Toshiba announcement's don't happen--I'll even grant 10-15% increase--but I hope you understand that it's offset by the lack of fire-sale purchases of catalog titles, even if not completely. And it's not going to be much higher than a 10-15% increase because it's not like people who wanted A.G. or Beowulf could buy it on BD, it's still an exclusive title. Actually, I think you are the one who is guessing. You are assuming HD-DVD owners are buying up titles because of cheap prices. I contest the opposite. I bought American Gangster last week, but I am definately not running out and buying a bunch of catalog titles that aren't even that well priced, fire sale or not, on a dead format just because I have a player. What am I going to do in several years when my player doesn't function. I stopped buying physical HD media. American Gangster and the Bee Movie were to be the only exceptions and now the Bee Movie won't be one of them. And what about all the people liquidating their collections on E-bay at much lower prices than retail? Those sales don't show up in Nielsen and they detract from possible sales at retail. I don't know which of you is right, I can only speak for myself. But for you to say the other poster is speculating, only to back it up with your own speculation without proof doesn't make your post right and his wrong.

30 days of night is a gamer movie.

Ah yes, the "gamer" movie. We can't forget about those.

IActually, I think you are the one who is guessing. You are assuming HD-DVD owners are buying up titles because of cheap prices.

...

I don't know which of you is right, I can only speak for myself. But for you to say the other poster is speculating, only to back it up with your own speculation without proof doesn't make your post right and his wrong.

First, I never said that HD DVD owners are only buying because of fire sales, which you imply I said. But if you are suggesting that HD DVD owners aren't buying up titles because of cheap prices then I guess I won't even belabor that point.

Second, you say that I am the one who is guessing and by extension he isn't, which is disingenuous. I specifically said "my humble opinion" and that I was "speculating" in my original post. The difference is that there is precedent to base my speculation/guess on, which lends it credibility and something to back it up.

In the absence of way to prove either of us right in the future (since this is all based on what might've been, what could've been and what would've been, etc, in relation to a point in time that altered the course of events), the only thing we can really use is what actually happened to date before said point in time. So going back to what I said in the first sentence of that post, claiming HD DVD would have won without any way to back it up and lacking any precedent for it doesn't really bode well for the credibility of his speculation.

A prime example that hurts his case is the week The Bourne Ultimatum was released.

Brandon

I know, but so many Blu-Ray fans refuse to admit that Blu-Ray used BOGOs to win weeks and maintain the 2:1 lead. So it's good that you're so honest about it. :)

I think the fact that blu-ray's have been more affordable for the most part of last year definitely helped. BOGO's helped as well, granted HD DVD's have had their bogo's (even Transformers was a BOGO at Circuit City the week it released) and still have been getting destroyed week after week after week in sales. A doubt even if HD DVD had caused a blip on the radar in over a year it would have matter as it has been clear which format that vast majority of consumers have been choosing for a long time. HD-DVD's lead from launch early was just that and it faded rather quickly.

If Warner had remained neutral, we would have already seen HD DVD with two or three winning weeks. The exclusives on the HD DVD side would have finally started to tip the scale towards HD DVD, with more high profile exclusives on the way later in the year. Tipping the scale wasn't enough for Time Warner, so they chose Blu-ray for the faster end to the format war.

:rolleyes:

Only off by 1 this week!!!

This theory has been debunked many times. Need I remind you a large portion of HD DVD owners were using the add-on, and a large portion of non-gamers the PS3.

Here's the difference between a 360 owner with HD DVD add on, and PS3 owner. It's logical to think that most of the people who bought the add-on were gamers who are also movie enthusiasts (or somewhat enthusiasts). This would be equivalent to someone who bought the PS3 for both gaming and movies.

Now if you compare those who bought the PS3 purely for movies against those who bought HD DVDs for movies... you've got a second group... movie enthusiasts who don't game.

But there's still something left over... Those who are gamers, who typically don't buy movies, but made an exception. This doesnt really exist in the 360 world because this group most likely would not have paid 180-200 for the add-on since they were just casual movie watchers.

I know, all of this is theory and there's a good chance it's completely incorrect. But with the bigger install base, as well as the X-factor (those who will only use PS3 as blu-ray player in special cases), it may explain why 300 was 2:1 whereas most other titles were 3:2.

damn I was off by 1.... Where is the winner list Winn?

I know, all of this is theory and there's a good chance it's completely incorrect. But with the bigger install base, as well as the X-factor (those who will only use PS3 as blu-ray player in special cases), it may explain why 300 was 2:1 whereas most other titles were 3:2.

Most titles were between 2:1 and 3:2. 62%-63% for BD and 27%-28% for HDDVD. Except for TMNT and 300 were more than 2:1 and PE and HPOTP less than 3:2.

Most titles were between 2:1 and 3:2. 62%-63% for BD and 27%-28% for HDDVD. Except for TMNT and 300 were more than 2:1 and PE and HPOTP less than 3:2.

Just correcting the maths, 2:1 would be about 66% BR to 33% HD DVD and 3:2 would be 60% BR to 40% HD DVD. Also wasn't Planet Earth about 3:2 in HD DVD's favour?

Here's the difference between a 360 owner with HD DVD add on, and PS3 owner. It's logical to think that most of the people who bought the add-on were gamers who are also movie enthusiasts (or somewhat enthusiasts). This would be equivalent to someone who bought the PS3 for both gaming and movies.

Now if you compare those who bought the PS3 purely for movies against those who bought HD DVDs for movies... you've got a second group... movie enthusiasts who don't game.

But there's still something left over... Those who are gamers, who typically don't buy movies, but made an exception. This doesnt really exist in the 360 world because this group most likely would not have paid 180-200 for the add-on since they were just casual movie watchers.

I know, all of this is theory and there's a good chance it's completely incorrect. But with the bigger install base, as well as the X-factor (those who will only use PS3 as blu-ray player in special cases), it may explain why 300 was 2:1 whereas most other titles were 3:2.

Wow, someone's got it spot on! :D The only bit you missed out was that there are some people who bought the Xbox360 HD DVD add-on for their PCs and didn't even have an Xbox360 so unless they played PC games they couldn't be counted as a "gamer" at all. I couldn't stand it when some people claimed the HD DVD add-on should be discounted when counting dedicated players if the PS3 was discounted too. They're nothing alike! :rolleyes:

Just correcting the maths, 2:1 would be about 66% BR to 33% HD DVD and 3:2 would be 60% BR to 40% HD DVD. Also wasn't Planet Earth about 3:2 in HD DVD's favour?

45% BD 55% HDDVD with 30k difference as of 12/30/07.

With sales this year they are probably around 5k difference (a Guess)

I know, all of this is theory and there's a good chance it's completely incorrect. But with the bigger install base, as well as the X-factor (those who will only use PS3 as blu-ray player in special cases), it may explain why 300 was 2:1 whereas most other titles were 3:2.One other thing to consider is that 300 came out July 31st, 2007 and around that time 2:1 was a normal ratio for new releases. Even titles that weren't considered gamer titles were doing that or higher. It was shortly after this that Paramount and Dreamworks announced a change and there was some momentum away from 2:1 for common titles. I don't have the list now, but around the time of 300's release I calculated the ratios for 6 titles that had just been released and 300 wasn't abnormal as far as the 2:1 ratio. My memory is that only 1 of the 6 titles had a less than 2:1 for the first week in the first alert data percentages we got to see.

--Darin

76:24

Not bad this week.

I know, all of this is theory and there's a good chance it's completely incorrect. But with the bigger install base, as well as the X-factor (those who will only use PS3 as blu-ray player in special cases), it may explain why 300 was 2:1 whereas most other titles were 3:2.

There's a very good chance that 300 was 2:1 while others were 3:2 because the install base was more heavily skewed towards BD owners when 300 came out. It took a while (Paramount going exclusive and a couple big sales) before HD DVDs installed base gained any momentum.

Brandon

Ok, I am awake. getting on this now.

9 perfect picks this week. Congratulations go out to:

gand41f
Leviathan25
spazzcat
bato
Jiffylush
online
SGRSBSKIER
theflux
hammie34


Nielsen contest results for 03/07/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 75:25

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
hammie34 75:25 1 0.00
SRR 76:24 1 1.00
EJ1 76:24 1 1.00
Cnd Joe 74:26 1 1.00
petetheaxe 76:24 2 2.50
h0mi 76:24 5 2.80
dad1153 77:23 2 3.00
Kamakzie 78:22 1 3.00
online 75:25 7 3.71
SGRSBSKIER 75:25 7 3.71
theflux 75:25 7 3.71
patrick99 78:22 6 3.83
Kemet 77:23 6 3.83
bato 75:25 7 3.86
Jiffylush 75:25 7 3.86
Sketcha 74:26 7 3.86
dc_pilgrim 72:28 7 4.00
Staying Salty 72:28 6 4.17
spazzcat 75:25 4 4.25
darinp2 78:22 7 4.29
Winn 76:24 7 4.29
phansson 74:26 7 4.29
Jackietreehorn 74:26 6 4.33
neillkrin 77:23 7 4.43
HuntzHD 78:22 7 4.57
Neo1965 78:22 7 4.57
UxiSXRD 78:22 7 4.57
Richard Paul 73:27 7 4.57
tomsteeper 71:29 7 4.57
Rich Peterson 80:20 7 4.71
eightninesuited 72:28 7 4.71
ICBM99 78:22 6 4.83
Random Digital 80:20 7 4.86
lomax 78:22 7 4.86
basano 81:19 7 5.00
merlintl 81:19 7 5.00
jmcq 78:22 7 5.00
nick_weasel 76:24 7 5.00
Elementalism 80:20 1 5.00
1MaNArmY 70:30 1 5.00
user friendly 81:19 7 5.14
iamitman 80:20 7 5.14
Greg Kettell 77:23 7 5.14
DarkAdept 73:27 7 5.14
BritInVA 76:24 6 5.17
dildatonr 70:30 3 5.33
crimsona 79:21 5 5.40
Steve Schauer 81:19 7 5.43
swedcrip 78:22 7 5.43
carljanderson 79:21 6 5.50
iamian 81:19 2 5.50
MASrules 79:21 7 5.57
rlsmith 74:26 7 5.57
MrPorterhouse 80:20 7 5.71
Ktak 78:22 7 5.71
brianmonkey 70:30 7 5.71
spacejamz 77:23 7 5.86
JAC6 76:24 7 5.86
rcase13 80:20 7 6.00
galperi1 78:22 7 6.00
Jblacklow 71:29 6 6.00
yampan 69:31 2 6.00
Leviathan25 75:25 7 6.14
manikin 74:26 7 6.14
splinters 79:21 4 6.25
soremekun 79:21 7 6.29
Jallopy 70:30 7 6.29
klac 76:24 7 6.43
ifmracin 76:24 6 6.50
nyg 70:30 6 6.67
bplewis 76:24 7 6.71
Icemage 71:29 7 6.71
datobin1 82:18 7 6.86
MarekM 79:21 7 6.86
Aresca 82:18 7 7.00
mike179179 69:31 4 7.00
dstewart 85:15 7 7.14
gand41f 75:25 7 7.14
MRMOTA 78:22 6 7.33
Mel2 81:19 6 7.67
aaronwt 76:24 7 7.71
allargon 67:33 6 8.50
ts.enigma 49:51 6 10.00
PaulGo 90:10 3 12.33
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 7 13.14
Shmack 45:55 7 15.71
mpgxsvcd 58:42 1 17.00
Corellianrogue 20:80 1 55.00


Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81
4 136 14 91 (10) [26] 81 60 (21) [96] 77.58 79 78
5 110 0 96 (23) [109] 73 70 (3) [1] 85.32 85 85
6 88 1 92 (15) [62] 77 60 (17) [25] 79.30 80 80
7 88 9 91 (16) [53] 75 20 (55) [26] 75.02 76 78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

I am going to run this for at least 3 more weeks so we get enough differentiation for prizes to be handed out. With word that Best Buy drops all HD DVD in early April, the end of March/early April looks like a good time to call it quits. To that end, here is a listing of people who are currently prize eligible:

NIELSEN CONTEST FINAL RESULTS (eligible players only)

NAME Attempts Avg. Score
online 7 3.71
SGRSBSKIER 7 3.71
theflux 7 3.71
patrick99 6 3.83
Kemet 6 3.83
bato 7 3.86
Jiffylush 7 3.86
Sketcha 7 3.86
dc_pilgrim 7 4.00
Staying Salty 6 4.17
darinp2 7 4.29
Winn 7 4.29
phansson 7 4.29
Jackietreehorn 6 4.33
neillkrin 7 4.43
Fran O'Hern 6 4.50
HuntzHD 7 4.57
Neo1965 7 4.57
UxiSXRD 7 4.57
Richard Paul 7 4.57
tomsteeper 7 4.57
Rich Peterson 7 4.71
eightninesuited 7 4.71
ICBM99 6 4.83
ottscay 6 4.83
Random Digital 7 4.86
lomax 7 4.86
basano 7 5.00
merlintl 7 5.00
jmcq 7 5.00
nick_weasel 7 5.00
user friendly 7 5.14
iamitman 7 5.14
Greg Kettell 7 5.14
DarkAdept 7 5.14
BritInVA 6 5.17
chirpie 6 5.33
Steve Schauer 7 5.43
swedcrip 7 5.43
carljanderson 6 5.50
MASrules 7 5.57
rlsmith 7 5.57
MrPorterhouse 7 5.71
Ktak 7 5.71
brianmonkey 7 5.71
spacejamz 7 5.86
JAC6 7 5.86
rcase13 7 6.00
galperi1 7 6.00
Jblacklow 6 6.00
Leviathan25 7 6.14
manikin 7 6.14
elikhom 6 6.17
soremekun 7 6.29
Jallopy 7 6.29
klac 7 6.43
ifmracin 6 6.50
nyg 6 6.67
bplewis 7 6.71
Icemage 7 6.71
datobin1 7 6.86
MarekM 7 6.86
Aresca 7 7.00
jling84 6 7.00
dstewart 7 7.14
gand41f 7 7.14
MRMOTA 6 7.33
Mel2 6 7.67
frizshizzle 6 7.67
aaronwt 7 7.71
allargon 6 8.50
JamesDFarrow 6 8.67
Newbie 6 8.67
ts.enigma 6 10.00
Robert SawyerIII 7 13.14
Shmack 7 15.71

I guess it all came down to balls, and Sony had more balls than Toshiba. Sony wouldn't have given up on Blu-Ray as easy as Toshiba has given up on HD-DVD. Toshiba blew every chance they had to put the hammer down. Makes me wonder how much confidence they really had going in. It was like Warner was their girlfriend who had left them and instead of moving on, they took the cowards way out and killed themselves.

Sony bet their company on the success of BD. Toshiba looked at it as both a new product, and a way to continue the revenue stream from DVD - protect it so to speak and to see if HD movies on disc would be a desire by the general public

Actually, I think you are the one who is guessing. You are assuming HD-DVD owners are buying up titles because of cheap prices. I contest the opposite. I bought American Gangster last week, but I am definately not running out and buying a bunch of catalog titles that aren't even that well priced, fire sale or not, on a dead format just because I have a player. What am I going to do in several years when my player doesn't function. I stopped buying physical HD media. American Gangster and the Bee Movie were to be the only exceptions and now the Bee Movie won't be one of them. And what about all the people liquidating their collections on E-bay at much lower prices than retail? Those sales don't show up in Nielsen and they detract from possible sales at retail. I don't know which of you is right, I can only speak for myself. But for you to say the other poster is speculating, only to back it up with your own speculation without proof doesn't make your post right and his wrong.

You should look at posts from other forums. People are buying 5, 10 even 15 movies at a time . . . for less than $150. And none of the purchases have been from Ebay - from online etailers.

Sony bet their company on the success of BD.

2007 sales estimated

Sony 76 Billion USD
Toshiba 68 Billion USD


I doubt that Sony "bet" the success of their company on Blu Ray. Sony is a bigger comapny than Toshiba.

thank you