A realistic article from Computerworld which made it to Google News:
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9064898&pageNumber=1

In my opinion if Blu-ray discs cost more than $5 over standard definition discs then the public is not going to accept it. The manufacture game-playing of withholding Blu-ray titles from the rental (read Netfix) market will hurt the format too.

Go figure... I totally disagree with practically everything this guy says.

They will fix price and downloads??? :rolleyes:

DVD is good enough is a good point for many. There's the minivan factor, as well. However, once the price comes down people will pay a small premium for the better PQ and interactivity. (Yes, this HD DVD supporter said Blu-Ray interactivity!) Downloads have too many kinks. They will come eventually, but not for awhile.

Blu-Ray is targeting the 11% of HDTV owners that have HD sources. If it can even get 5% of the home video market by 2010, then it will do well.

A realistic article from Computerworld which made it to Google News:
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9064898&pageNumber=1

In my opinion if Blu-ray discs cost more than $5 over standard definition discs then the public is not going to accept it. The manufacture game-playing of withholding Blu-ray titles from the rental (read Netfix) market will hurt the format too.

All those points will be invalid when in early 2009 at the latest when BD will be just as cheap as DVD. Remember studios actually want to make the transition to BD because DVD growth has receded. It's easier for them to sell a new product than an old product, especially if the new product is markedly superior.

You can certainly argue with several of the points however it is hard to argue with the fact that "Blu-ray players are more than four times the cost of standard DVD".

In any case warm up the Blu-ray evangelists complaining that the is just more HD-DVD sour grapes and queue up the thread lock cause it is hard to imagine intelligent discourse occuring in this thread.


I am a BD supporter and I agree with most of what he says, but here is where he blows it:

"I've had a certain disdain for Blu-ray Disc from the beginning (even though I figured it would win the format war) because of the high price of the players".

Just prior to this statement he says he will NOT buy a BD player for his four reasons he listed.

While he lists legit reasons for not buying a BD player, it is more than obvious it is really his hatred for BD that gives him reason not to buy a player. Hatred is not over exaggerating the point if you read the article. It describes exactly how he thinks and feels using facts to back his 'disdain'.

Like many on here who are naysayers about BD's in general and BD's future success, wanting something to happen as in BD's failing due to resentment and dislike, and what will actually happen are two different things.

All those points will be invalid when in early 2009 at the latest when BD will be just as cheap as DVD. Remember studios actually want to make the transition to BD because DVD growth has receded. It's easier for them to sell a new product than an old product, especially if the new product is markedly superior.

This will not happen in early 2009. Blu-ray's cost more to make than DVD's, and the studios are already upset about the low cost of DVD's. They will continue charging a premium for Blu-ray, as will the CE's with their Hardware. Blu-ray will become niche at best for the people who need to have the latest and greatest, while the rest of the public will either continue purchasing SD DVD's and using upconverting players or switch over to VOD services. I'm curious to see who ends up getting in on all of the analog bandwidth that will become available once cable switches to digital next year. This will allow huge increases in internet speeds if purchased and used for such. Many better options are coming in the near future.

Josh

You can certainly argue with several of the points however it is hard to argue with the fact that "Blu-ray players are more than four times the cost of standard DVD".

Not hard to argue at all.

He references Sony's player at $400. Just looking at Sony's website, one can see they have player for $199 (http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=11038468), $499 (http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=11040456), and even $1,299 (http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=11040483). Sony is able to sell products at these price points (as are all major CE Manufacturers). This early in its life, it is a product for aficionados and people with a bit more disposable income. By Christmas of this year, there will be players around $300 list and within 18 months, there will be players at $199.

In any case warm up the Blu-ray evangelists complaining that the is just more HD-DVD sour grapes and queue up the thread lock cause it is hard to imagine intelligent discourse occuring in this thread.

I've had a certain disdain for Blu-ray Disc from the beginning (even though I figured it would win the format war) because of the high price of the players. I know this is partly due to the fact that, unlike HD DVD, manufacturers had to change out their DVD platter-pressing equipment for the new format.

He starts by saying he does not like the format and then explains that players are more expensive because one needs new pressing equipment. Not clear on the connection between the two (nor it seems is he).

Once again, we get this argument that HD DVD was cheaper. If one discounts Toshiba's subsidized hardware, one can see that HD DVD content cost about the same or more as its Blu-ray counterpart. What this means is either it was not materially less to manufacture, or HD DVD studios (both exclusive and neutral) were gouging their customers.

/carmi

Not hard to argue at all.

He references Sony's player at $400. Just looking at Sony's website, one can see they have player for $199 (http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=11038468), $499 (http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=11040456), and even $1,299 (http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10551&storeId=10151&langId=-1&productId=11040483). Sony is able to sell products at these price points (as are all major CE Manufacturers). This early in its life, it is a product for aficionados and people with a bit more disposable income. By Christmas of this year, there will be players around $300 list and within 18 months, there will be players at $199.





/carmi

FYI-The Sony $199 player you linked to is not a Blue Ray player.

Hinestly, I don't think blu-ray will catch on either. Players need to be in the $100 range, and they're not moving off the shelves b/c they're still priced at $500.
Look at HD DVD. They weren't selling well even at $150. By the time blu-ray players are affordable (<$100) to the mass market, it will be too late.

By Christmas of this year, there will be players around $300 list and within 18 months, there will be players at $199.


I hope you are right, but I fear that these $199 players will not be Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Denon, Onkyo, etc. but rather a Funai :(

"I've had a certain disdain for Blu-ray Disc from the beginning (even though I figured it would win the format war) because of the high price of the players".

Player prices is not the reason why blu ray will tank.

Software price is.
Region B retail prices simply scare a lot of folks back to the DVD bin's.
I have seen it happen during my shopping at the few local retailers that sell HD. Actually selling isn't the proper word to use...
30 euro for a movie and the disc goes back into the bin faster than the PS3 can load the disc.
That is for movies that are 10 euro for the SD and often these movies were broadcasted a couple of weeks or so.

Back then DVD where expensive too. But so where pre recorded VHS tapes.
The quality improvement for both video and audio and ease of use sealed VHS fate as a HVM format.
Today the situation is very different The step up from SD to HD for most folks is minimal. The ease of use for a blu ray is now less due to ridicilous load times.

30..40 euro (almost $60 these day's!) for second tier titles is ridicilous.

I don't understand why people who are so certain and eager for HDM to fail bother coming here at all. If HD is a lost cause for you and you're happy with SD then why not hang out at the SD DVD threads? Or does spreading your gloom make you happy?

This stuff is getting tiresome.

What? Reincarnate posting something anti-Sony? I can't believe it! What's next? Is the sky falling? Holy Crap, I think I just saw a pig with wings!

Remember studios actually want to make the transition to BD because DVD growth has receded. It's easier for them to sell a new product than an old product, especially if the new product is markedly superior.

Every new release SD-DVD is a new product. At Wal-Mart some of the big releases are priced $13.96 and some $16.96. It will be tough to overcome those prices with "quality" $29.99 blu-ray discs 2 isles down.

Every new release SD-DVD is a new product. At Wal-Mart some of the big releases are priced $13.96 and some $16.96. It will be tough to overcome those prices with "quality" $29.99 blu-ray discs 2 isles down.

Especially when you have a great upscaler the Blue-Ray picture is not worth the higher price, not to mention the $500 investment in a clunky player or gaming machine.

The problem would be that the studios arnt interested in lowering the prices.Whats the point with a new format if they have to price it the same as the old, and if you count that it more expensive to produce aswell.

I wonders what the price would be, that both attracts J6P and still give the studios the extra $ they want?

On the Author's point of downloads;If Sony ever implements HD Movie/TV downloads for the PS3, they could be cannibalizing their own revenue stream. When it happens, I'd sure like to see the metrics comparing PS3 owners buying Blu, renting Blu and downloading HD.

I don't understand why people who are so certain and eager for HDM to fail bother coming here at all. If HD is a lost cause for you and you're happy with SD then why not hang out at the SD DVD threads? Or does spreading your gloom make you happy?

This stuff is getting tiresome.

Blue Ray may be the current media today, but that does not mean everyone has to embrace and buy into it. Actually I want HDM to prevail, thats why some of us are cynical the current trend will fail.

I for one hope Blu-Ray is a success.

I don't understand why people who are so certain and eager for HDM to fail bother coming here at all. If HD is a lost cause for you and you're happy with SD then why not hang out at the SD DVD threads? Or does spreading your gloom make you happy?

This stuff is getting tiresome.

I often wondered that myself ,if i don't care for something i will not waste
my time with it. i am not sure who they are trying to convince us or themselves forgetting that this is the AVS forum where we care about
the advancement in pq and aq and that just happens to belong to Blu-Ray
currently.

Blu-Ray is targeting the 11% of HDTV owners that have HD sources. If it can even get 5% of the home video market by 2010, then it will do well.

If Blu-ray only gets 5% of the home video market by 2010, most of the CE companies will probably abandon the Blu-ray market.

I don't understand why people who are so certain and eager for HDM to fail bother coming here at all. If HD is a lost cause for you and you're happy with SD then why not hang out at the SD DVD threads? Or does spreading your gloom make you happy?

This stuff is getting tiresome.

I'm willing to spend lots of money for HD and I don't like to see it fail.
Blu ray fans got there wish that almost half the HD market failed. Now they have to face the reality of the situation.

For me software prices is important. Especially if region locked titles costing $26 in region A are over 40 euro in region B.
For the same amount of money I get only half the number of discs in my region.
That might be ok for the PS3 crowd that have Star Wars and Rocky and LotR in third place on there most wanted HD title list. (Most of them 'collect' at most 50 titles and rent the rest)

I'm going to wait now. I can afford to wait. The money I save is now going into an expensive Denon av pre amp to face an hdmi future.

I don't understand why people who are so certain and eager for HDM to fail bother coming here at all. If HD is a lost cause for you and you're happy with SD then why not hang out at the SD DVD threads? Or does spreading your gloom make you happy?

I agree, to a point. Some people are just sore HD-DVD lost, but others (like myself) want HDM to success, but are concerned with the current pricing.

The one thing I disagree with is that DVD is good enough. Nope, no way. Long live HDM...

John

I think he sums up his article with this quote from his first reason:
"I've had a certain disdain for Blu-ray Disc from the beginning.."

But here's my thoughts of his reasons anyway:

1.) The cost for DVD players was easily 4x the price of VHS back in the early days of DVD. Everything is all relative. As for Blu-ray pressing factories, a company making VHS tapes couldn't make DVDs off the same line either...it was a whole new process.

2.) "Near-HD quality". No... it's standard definition material blown to fit into a higher resolution. Think of a stream off YouTube. You can make it full screen if you want, and with most of today's PC monitors at least 1280x1024, does that make YouTube Near-HD quality?

I can agree with him on the screen size. Over 50" is where high definition is benificial, but ask anyone with a 32"-46" screen with Blu-ray, and they'll tell you BD is better than DVD.

3.) This one really gets me... He'd rather pay to watch his favorite movies every time he wants to see them because he doesn't want to store them? He might as well get rid of his car and call a taxi everytime he wants to go any where because that car takes up a lot of storage space.

VOD is just video rentals. Does anybody go to the video store and rent the same movies over and over and over again? No. You buy them once and watch them as many times as you want without extra cost.

4.) Until movie downloads are buy-to-own, then again, he wants to pay every time he wants to watch his favorite movies. Besides, if he starts saving them then he has to store them and from what he says in #3, he doesn't want to do that.

This one really gets me... He'd rather pay to watch his favorite movies every time he wants to see them because he doesn't want to store them? He might as well get rid of his car and call a taxi everytime he wants to go any where because that car takes up a lot of storage space.

VOD is just video rentals. Does anybody go to the video store and rent the same movies over and over and over again? No. You buy them once and watch them as many times as you want without extra cost.



I probably rented five VHS tapes many years ago. Then along came satellite and I watched movies in SD from satellite. Never rented any DVDs, bought a few that I knew I would watch many times, still watching on satellite. Then along came HD. Satellite HD was not an option when DirecTV left TiVo. Nor was there a Tivo with Dish. We had no cable HD. So I waited. In 2006 it all broke loose with HDM and the Tivo series 3. So now I am buying movies like crazy. There is no HD on the satellite or cable, only HD lite, I get OTA for TV programming in HD. I am now blessed with real HD and rentals, non HD VOD, quasi HD anything are just not acceptable.

I am hoping the one big reason for general adoption does go away and that is high prices.

i don't see this thread lasting very long.

Blu-ray pricing is well in line with standard DVD pricing at this point in it's lifetime. In fact, it's a little ahead. I remember paying $30.00 for a 2-episode disc of Star Trek TOS on DVD at about this stage. In fact, $30.00 was about the norm for all DVD's. Players were well above $300.00 for 'cheap, non-progressive scan' players. The last standard DVD player I bought was $900.00. So if you think about it, even the current price of BD isn't unreasonable, nor out of line with the market place.

...

3.) This one really gets me... He'd rather pay to watch his favorite movies every time he wants to see them because he doesn't want to store them? He might as well get rid of his car and call a taxi everytime he wants to go any where because that car takes up a lot of storage space.

VOD is just video rentals. Does anybody go to the video store and rent the same movies over and over and over again? No. You buy them once and watch them as many times as you want without extra cost.


Actually he is right on that one. For 70% of my movie collection that is.
Movies I only watched once ore twice. On hindsight I could have saved thousend. Now I'm buying extra storage furniture to line a 16 feet wall...
Now VOD will be a real possibility for movie delivery in the not so long term future. Why start another collection? I only have to spend 1/5 into a future collection that I really would watch several times.

Ahh ... I do believe that Blu-ray has triumphed and has become the format of the future. Those who don't recognize this are either deluding themselves or are not too bright IMO.

Actually he is right on that one. For 70% of my movie collection that is.
Movies I only watched once ore twice. On hindsight I could have saved thousend. Now I'm buying extra storage furniture to line a 16 feet wall...
Now VOD will be a real possibility for movie delivery in the not so long term future. Why start another collection? I only have to spend 1/5 into a future collection that I really would watch several times.

To start off, VOD isn't anywhere near the quality of BD or HD-DVD. Even broadcast HD-TV is a long way from the quality of BD and HD-DVD.

A realistic article from Computerworld which made it to Google News:
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9064898&pageNumber=1

In my opinion if Blu-ray discs cost more than $5 over standard definition discs then the public is not going to accept it. The manufacture game-playing of withholding Blu-ray titles from the rental (read Netfix) market will hurt the format too.

Sony/BDA's plan all along was to eliminate competition and maintain artificially high prices on BD players and disc. Doing so, ensures BD can take HD in any direction they want and at any pace they see fit. It also helps recoup the obscene amounts of money BR paid out to kill HD DVD their only competition for the HD optical disc media dollar.

Ahh ... I do believe that Blu-ray has triumphed and has become the format of the future. ´

Well that depends on what the future holds.

Quick Downloads.
Holodecks
etc

There is always as possibilty that something new comes along.

If DVDs had arrived in the mid 80is, VHS life would have been short. If BD had arrived in 1999, DVDs would have been in serious trouble.

If there is a demand for something else, well then can something else take marketshare.

Right now there isnt any alternative to BD for me, but what about next year?

I'll take holodecks :)

Those of you who believe BLu-ray and thus HD Media will fail... What are you doing here? If you like HDDVD talk about HDDVD, if you like VOD, talk about VOD.... but the constant BD is doomed from the same people over and over... is tiresome.

If you want to talk about VOD, cant you guys do it without inferring that HDM is DOOMED?

Those of you who believe BLu-ray and thus HD Media will fail... What are you doing here? If you like HDDVD talk about HDDVD, if you like VOD, talk about VOD.... but the constant BD is doomed from the same people over and over... is tiresome.

If you want to talk about VOD, cant you guys do it without inferring that HDM is DOOMED?

So your logic is....It's okay to discuss this topic as long as you don't mention other HD media that factor into the equation? Brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!

Those of you who believe BLu-ray and thus HD Media will fail... What are you doing here? If you like HDDVD talk about HDDVD, if you like VOD, talk about VOD.... but the constant BD is doomed from the same people over and over... is tiresome.

If you want to talk about VOD, cant you guys do it without inferring that HDM is DOOMED?

Well who said it was doomed. But it has a though road ahead, and its high prices doesnt help among other things.

If another delivery method arrives that gives me movies in HD with great PQ and AQ with a fair price, I would take it. But right now BD is the best alternative for HomeTheater.

But the real intresting question for me, is what will the future bring us? and what does BD plan to counter it with?

So your logic is....It's okay to discuss this topic as long as you don't mention other HD media that factor into the equation? Brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!

What equation? If you like VOD, then talk about it for real... and not as a means for killing BD. The only reason you guys talk about VOD is to say "BD is doomed because VOD rules" But behind your statements there is very little actual interest in VOD, only angst against Blu Ray.

And then you guys talk about how BD is doomed because SDDVD is good enough? Then arent there enough SDDVD forums for you to hand out in? If the only reason you hang out in this forum is to say "BD is doomed because... " Then why even visit this forum?

What equation? If you like VOD, then talk about it for real... and not as a means for killing BD. The only reason you guys talk about VOD is to say "BD is doomed because VOD rules" But behind your statements there is very little actual interest in VOD, only angst against Blu Ray.

And then you guys talk about how BD is doomed because SDDVD is good enough? Then arent there enough SDDVD forums for you to hand out in? If the only reason you hang out in this forum is to say "BD is doomed because... " Then why even visit this forum?

Here's the definition of equation since you don't seem to know what it means.

Main Entry: equa·tion
Pronunciation: \i-ˈkwā-zhən also -shən\
Function: noun
Date: 14th century
1 a: the act or process of equating b (1): an element affecting a process : factor (2): a complex of variable factors c: a state of being equated; specifically : a state of close association or identification <bring governmental enterprises and payment for them into immediate equation — R. G. Tugwell>
2 a: a usually formal statement of the equality or equivalence of mathematical or logical expressions b: an expression representing a chemical reaction quantitatively by means of chemical symbols

The only problem I have with HD On-Demand movies is the monthly fee that you have to pay to have the right to pay another $2-$6 to watch the video for 24 hours.

If you watch 2 movies a month that is at least $34 a movie ($60 for cable + $8 for the movie). I don't have cable, but might buy a couple of movies month. I still spend less than the average cable subscriber before they even watch an HD Movie on demand :D

To start off, VOD isn't anywhere near the quality of BD or HD-DVD. Even broadcast HD-TV is a long way from the quality of BD and HD-DVD.

That might be true for folks with "high end" gear with obscene price tags. The reality is that SD and broadcast HD quality is sufficient for most folks.
The other 99% find value in the lower quality. And they are the folks that shape HDM future. Are they buying into it or are they going for the alternative?

Fans forget that when DVD took over VOD wasn't in the equasion.
Now it is and will not go away. The quality an convenience will improve.
It's a cash cow waiting to be milked.

In it's current state movie companies are not going to subsidise a niche HD format for the next 5 years. If they can't establish a premium price over current DVD prices there is little incentive for them to keep subsidizing HDM releases. HDM will not grow the HVM five fold like DVD did. With HDM they can only hope that it replaces the DVD market. At higher production cost...
Warner is laready downsizing and destroyed new line in the process...

It has to take of within the next two or even one year. If not HD nirvana is going to be postponed for another couple of years.

For my casual viewing VOD will be sufficient.

The only problem I have with HD On-Demand movies is the monthly fee that you have to pay to have the right to pay another $2-$6 to watch the video for 24 hours.

If you watch 2 movies a month that is at least $34 a movie ($60 for cable + $8 for the movie). I don't have cable, but might buy a couple of movies month. I still spend less than the average cable subscriber before they even watch an HD Movie on demand :D

Your math is weird.

Spreading the cost of the cable over 2 movies a month is not how other folks would perceive it.
$60 for cable also brings in lots of tv channels, sport channels and internet these days.
Normal folks would only associate only a fraction of the cable fee with VOD.
Spending $2..$6 to watch a movie for a certain period brings it in rentals territory. These are folks that having a buying habit of 2..3 movies a month on average anyway. That is probably true for 80% of the consumers...

Blu ray with a $30 price tag isn't going to transform J6P into rabid movie collectors.
Even DVD with $15 price tags didn't do that.

Those of you who believe BLu-ray and thus HD Media will fail... What are you doing here? If you like HDDVD talk about HDDVD, if you like VOD, talk about VOD.... but the constant BD is doomed from the same people over and over... is tiresome.

If you want to talk about VOD, cant you guys do it without inferring that HDM is DOOMED?

These kind of petulant responses only further reinforce the feeling that the side who "won" is even more nervous now than they were in the heat of the format war.

No one is saying Blue Ray is doomed, but this thread clearly deals with the fact that Blue Ray hardware and software is overpriced and thus will have a hard time getting into people's homes at the moment.

I have HD DVD, the last thing I want to think about is dropping $400 on a PS3 since no other player is worth it's salt, more money for a remote and then go drop $40 on Close Encounters.

That's why some of us see Blue Ray having a tough time as presently constituted.

If they can't get me to grab a player and some discs, then they have a problem.

I'm exactly who they are marketing for and who they want as a customer.

The price of Blue Ray is too high and the fact that people in this very forum tell other people to wait for a better Blue Ray player before running out and buying one at these high prices is proof enough to me that there are some real issues there.

To start off, VOD isn't anywhere near the quality of BD or HD-DVD. Even broadcast HD-TV is a long way from the quality of BD and HD-DVD.

Don't under estimate the value of convenience. PQ is one factor. But is it the only one? If broadcast PQ is good enough to gather billions to watch the Super Bowl then VOD in HD is probably good enough for "50 First Dates".

When was McDonalds ever accused of offering the best PQ - I mean food - in town. I don't believe the best PQ - I mean best restaurant in town - reguires a drive thru. Last I checked convenience was doing pretty well. Even if it may not look as good.

Don't under estimate the value of convenience. PQ is one factor. But is it the only one? If broadcast PQ is good enough to gather billions to watch the Super Bowl then VOD in HD is probably good enough for "50 First Dates".

When was McDonalds ever accused of offering the best PQ - I mean food - in town. I don't believe the best PQ - I mean best restaurant in town - reguires a drive thru. Last I checked convenience was doing pretty well. Even if it may not look as good.

Yes, but when you want a really nice meal, you don't go to McDonalds. And there are plenty of 'Hi-End' restaurants that are quite successful, and have a high enough profit margin for those with more 'discerning' tastes. Besides, at this point, I seriously doubt that Sony will 'let' Blu-ray fail.

In my experience broadcast is very close. Broadcast Heros is pretty much equal to the HD disk. Again, IMO

"Even broadcast HD-TV is a long way from the quality of BD and HD-DVD."

The article is completely wrong on a number of points - I don't have time this second to go into it, but much of it should be obvious. I will just say I find it very humorous and entertaining the number of people who just salivate over the thought of Blu-ray failing. Of course, these are same people who have been WRONG on the entire format war issue for the last two years and told us HD DVD was going to win anyway (and you know exactly who you are.).

That might be true for folks with "high end" gear with obscene price tags. The reality is that SD and broadcast HD quality is sufficient for most folks.
The other 99% find value in the lower quality. And they are the folks that shape HDM future. Are they buying into it or are they going for the alternative?

Fans forget that when DVD took over VOD wasn't in the equasion.
Now it is and will not go away. The quality an convenience will improve.
It's a cash cow waiting to be milked.

In it's current state movie companies are not going to subsidise a niche HD format for the next 5 years. If they can't establish a premium price over current DVD prices there is little incentive for them to keep subsidizing HDM releases. HDM will not grow the HVM five fold like DVD did. With HDM they can only hope that it replaces the DVD market. At higher production cost...
Warner is laready downsizing and destroyed new line in the process...

It has to take of within the next two or even one year. If not HD nirvana is going to be postponed for another couple of years.

For my casual viewing VOD will be sufficient.

I thought you wanted HD audio?

Yes, but when you want a really nice meal, you don't go to McDonalds. And there are plenty of 'Hi-End' restaurants that are quite successful, and have a high enough profit margin for those with more 'discerning' tastes. Besides, at this point, I seriously doubt that Sony will 'let' Blu-ray fail.

I do not believe BR will fail. But I think the jury is still out as it relates to its level of success. I have both a blu and red player. My blu titles are numbered 2 to 1 over red. So I understand the value quotient.

The BDA has a tough task. This is my point. There are hundreds of millions of SD DVD playback devices that will have to be replaced for blu to win the market share game. DVD players, portables, PCs etc. I am not convinced that the mass market is yet willing to landfill this gear in order to pave the way for a quick (3-5 years) adoption of blu.

Call me a pragmatist but how many notebook PCs had a VHS player when DVD arrived on the scene? How many notebook PCs had a DVD drive when HDM arrived on the scene?

How many portable VHS players were there when DVD arrived on the scene? How many portable DVD players were there when HDM arrived on the scene?

What was the number of VOD offerings when DVD arrived on the scene? What are the number of VOD offerings when HDM arrived on the scene?

.......etc....etc....the list goes on.

The mass market is going to sh** can all of their hardware for prettier pictures?

VHS to DVD was a paradigm shift. HDM to DVD simply offers better PQ - for a minority of televisions owners in the US - SDTVs still own the embedded base market share. HDM adoption rates are also governed by HDTV adoption rates

The BDA has said it will be an 8-10 year process. I agree. But the wild card is that in today's world 8-10 years is a very long time.

Add a bit of convenience and the mass market may just take a pass on replacing their "collections" one more time..

A realistic article from Computerworld which made it to Google News:
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9064898&pageNumber=1

In my opinion if Blu-ray discs cost more than $5 over standard definition discs then the public is not going to accept it. The manufacture game-playing of withholding Blu-ray titles from the rental (read Netfix) market will hurt the format too.5$ is huge expense for you even with HD goodness? That's a pity. Likewise, Big Mac will fail.

Add a bit of convenience and the mass market may just take a pass on replacing their "collections" one more time..

Will there be no new movies to purchase in HD for 8 to 10 years, or do we have to rebuy all those old catalog movies for Blu-ray to succeed?

I think this whole thing with doubting BDs viability is either insanity or in extreme denial. Think about the relationship between the players and the television--or more exactly, the television size. Upscaled DVDs vs HDM is one thing a 720P 42" display, and a whole other ball game on the really big 1080P displays.

Bear in mind, as the next 3-5 years go by, not only will most households have HDTVs, those HDTVs will be on average bigger than what the average is now, and BD players will be well under $199. The prices will go down and down and 37", 42" HDTVs will be cheap sets for the kids rooms or the bedroom. 60" and up will become the norm. I don't care if SD DVDs are selling for 99 cents and players can upscale the over living sh** out of them, at 60" and up you would be just about as likely to settle for SD DVDs as you would be settling for VHS tapes today.

Just think about the differences when people start buying HDTVs that are bigger and bigger, 80", 90" etc.

And yes, the masses will get rid of their DVD players. It won't be a big deal because the vast majority paid less than $99 for their players. Yeah, you might still have your original $300 DVD player, but most people have some Wal-Mart special. It will be no hard feeling to the $49 players, and hello to the new BD player at $149-$199.

The word is 'inevitable'

Will there be no new movies to purchase in HD for 8 to 10 years, or do we have to rebuy all those old catalog movies for Blu-ray to succeed?

Well of course.

But the base of HDM players has to increase exponentially for day and date titles to compete with SD DVD releases. If you look at 2007 the SD version of "Flushed Away" sold more copies than the entire catalog (including day and date releases) of both blu and red titles combined. One SD DVD title outsold the entire HDM title offering in 2007. Even after all of the HDM BOGOs that were popular in 2007.

The only way to counter this is to increase the HDM player base. Without this happening HDM remains a home theater high end niche low volume market.

FYI-The Sony $199 player you linked to is not a Blue Ray player.

Nor are the $499 and $1,299 links. They are all DVD players. That was my point.

/carmi

These kind of petulant responses only further reinforce the feeling that the side who "won" is even more nervous now than they were in the heat of the format war.

No one is saying Blue Ray is doomed, but this thread clearly deals with the fact that Blue Ray hardware and software is overpriced and thus will have a hard time getting into people's homes at the moment.

I have HD DVD, the last thing I want to think about is dropping $400 on a PS3 since no other player is worth it's salt, more money for a remote and then go drop $40 on Close Encounters.

That's why some of us see Blue Ray having a tough time as presently constituted.

If they can't get me to grab a player and some discs, then they have a problem.

I'm exactly who they are marketing for and who they want as a customer.

The price of Blue Ray is too high and the fact that people in this very forum tell other people to wait for a better Blue Ray player before running out and buying one at these high prices is proof enough to me that there are some real issues there.


Its the same thread over and over.... the same posts by the same people... People who dont really give a crap about VOD.

The only reason you or anyone else is really talking about VOD, is to say it will beat BD. I havent seen any threads actually about VOD news, that didnt turn into VOD will beat BD thread.

Its so dumb to have the same thread over and over, when there is a sticky on the top of the page.

And if you like SDDVD, there is an regular DVD forum.