Microsoft: “We’ll support Blu-ray” [Text View]

mikemorel

03-08-08, 08:38 AM

just bring on the br add-on. MS stated they were all about giving the customer choice. so give me a choice and make a br add-on for the 360.From Chris Lanier's blog... (http://msmvps.com/blogs/chrisl/archive/2008/02/21/1521136.aspx)

I’ve gotten a fair amount of reaction to the various articles I’ve posted on Microsoft and Blu-ray, and it still seems the overall consensus on the web is that Microsoft will fall head over heels for Blu-ray in their products.

I want to preface this post by saying that I’m not advocating Microsoft not supporting Blu-ray. The fact is that Blu-ray won, while I think HD DVD had its clear advantages those don’t matter anymore. I want Blu-ray support in any product that markets itself as part of a digital home.

Fiction: Microsoft should support Blu-ray on the Xbox 360

I truly don’t understand why Microsoft would add Blu-ray support to the Xbox 360 at this point. When Microsoft added HD DVD support they did so by adding some four million lines of code to the Dashboard and had Toshiba manufacturer and sell the HD DVD drives at a loss. How do I know it was at a loss? Just look at the fact that the standard IDE drive was selling for far less than any other IDE HD DVD drive on market.

Toshiba didn’t make any money on the 300,000 that were sold and neither did Microsoft. Microsoft took the development time to add support simply to counter Sony including Blu-ray in the PS3. This was an extremely poor counter, but it provided a fairly cheap way for a consumer to add support for a next gen DVD format on their Xbox.

As that was the only real reason, what reason does Microsoft have now to do the same for Blu-ray? The war is over, Blu-ray won. Your not fighting that anymore. The Xbox 360 is nearly two years old with an approximate four year total turn-over time for the next console. Why add Blu-ray in any form to the Xbox 360?

The simple fact is that it’s not in Microsoft’s best interest to provide Blu-ray support in the Xbox 360. The drives are going to be too expensive as there is no reason to sell them at a loss anymore. Pair that with the development time for BD+ and BD-J, two technologies that Microsoft didn’t agree with in the first place and you have a recipe for no Blu-ray on the Xbox 360.

As for internal drives, that’s even worse. Going back to the drawing board, yet again losing money for an integrated drive that can only be used for movie playback. Remember, developers can’t use Blu-ray Disc’s as that you limit your market by some 18 million current Xbox 360’s (Microsoft also wouldn’t allow it either).

I strongly disagree that Microsoft already has some of these things planned and working as Derek Flickinger suggested on CE Pro yesterday. I don’t believe the Xbox 360 will ever have Blu-ray Disc support. As for the Xbox 720 or whatever you want to call it, I think it is too soon to say it won’t but I don’t think you can say it will either.Blu-ray drives cost $120 - $130 to OEMs now. Blu-ray royalties cost $30 just for the drive. Add in the rest of the royalties (video, audio codecs, BD-J, BD+, etc. - blu-ray cartel members probably don't have to pay full royalties), the cost of a case, remote, packaging, retail markup (30%?) and customer support. Add in the massive software development costs to get everything working and debugged to 48 mbps bit rates (4 million lines of code for HD DVD; BD is probably more).

Then consider that there probably won't be many more BD addons sold than HD DVD drives (especially at $300-$350). And consider that MS has to sell the HD DVD add on for a profit, as there is no incentive to sell it for a loss. Then consider that they will be paying royalties to Sony, which is in effect like subsidizing the PS3.

The conclusion seems clear - no add on BD drive. No internal BD drive either, as that would drive up the manufacturing (and royalty) costs enormously.

Which is why Ballmer said they will support BD in "ways that make sense". He has to say that, as the monopoly police is always looking over his shoulder.

An add on doesn't make any sense financially.

As for the 720 (or whatever the follow on is called)...A VMD drive can hold 30GB, a bit rate of 40mbps and costs 10 times less than a BD drive. It is a plain red laser DVD drive with a tweaked firmware. It would be great for games and doesn't come with a ton of royalties.

Edit: One other possible conclusion - MS might consider making XBox360 BD addons in exchange for studio considerations i.e. download agreements. Studios might pressure MS to support BD on XBox to, in return, support XBox Live (or Media Center).

DrDon

03-08-08, 08:42 AM

Posts attacking other members and involving inappropriate language have been removed and suspensions issued.

iceperson

03-08-08, 09:45 AM

Calamus

03-08-08, 10:13 AM

It should make economical sense aswell.

If one customers wants a 4TB drive in its xbox should microsoft deliver that?

If 100 customers wants SACD playback should they deliver that?

Its not just about that the costumers wants, its also the number of customers.

The HD DVD addon has proved that a very little portion of xbox customer base is interested in HD media.
Based on the sales of HD-DVD SA's VS the HD-DVD AO then it makes since to me :D

Wasn't the AO at least 1/3 of all HD-DVD players sold?

Calamus

03-08-08, 10:21 AM

From Chris Lanier's blog... (http://msmvps.com/blogs/chrisl/archive/2008/02/21/1521136.aspx)

Blu-ray drives cost $120 - $130 to OEMs now. Blu-ray royalties cost $30 just for the drive. Add in the rest of the royalties (video, audio codecs, BD-J, BD+, etc. - blu-ray cartel members probably don't have to pay full royalties), the cost of a case, remote, packaging, retail markup (30%?) and customer support. Add in the massive software development costs to get everything working and debugged to 48 mbps bit rates (4 million lines of code for HD DVD; BD is probably more).

Then consider that there probably won't be many more BD addons sold than HD DVD drives (especially at $300-$350). And consider that MS has to sell the HD DVD add on for a profit, as there is no incentive to sell it for a loss. Then consider that they will be paying royalties to Sony, which is in effect like subsidizing the PS3.

The conclusion seems clear - no add on BD drive. No internal BD drive either, as that would drive up the manufacturing (and royalty) costs enormously.

Which is why Ballmer said they will support BD in "ways that make sense". He has to say that, as the monopoly police is always looking over his shoulder.

An add on doesn't make any sense financially.

As for the 720 (or whatever the follow on is called)...A VMD drive can hold 30GB, a bit rate of 40mbps and costs 10 times less than a BD drive. It is a plain red laser DVD drive with a tweaked firmware. It would be great for games and doesn't come with a ton of royalties.

Edit: One other possible conclusion - MS might consider making XBox360 BD addons in exchange for studio considerations i.e. download agreements. Studios might pressure MS to support BD on XBox to, in return, support XBox Live (or Media Center).

DVD is last decade’s technology and is quickly running out of space for PC and console requirements. Since its inevitable that the Xbox 720 will have integrated Blu-ray technology it makes good since to get something out there in the shorter term.

jitguy

03-08-08, 11:28 AM

It should make economical sense aswell.

If one customers wants a 4TB drive in its xbox should microsoft deliver that?

If 100 customers wants SACD playback should they deliver that?

Its not just about that the costumers wants, its also the number of customers.

The HD DVD addon has proved that a very little portion of xbox customer base is interested in HD media.

I do not believe that the # that purchased an addon for the weaker format in the middle of the format war proves anything about what the interest level might be now that the war is over.

restart

03-09-08, 01:49 AM

From Chris Lanier's blog... (http://msmvps.com/blogs/chrisl/archive/2008/02/21/1521136.aspx)

Blu-ray drives cost $120 - $130 to OEMs now. Blu-ray royalties cost $30 just for the drive. Add in the rest of the royalties (video, audio codecs, BD-J, BD+, etc. - blu-ray cartel members probably don't have to pay full royalties), the cost of a case, remote, packaging, retail markup (30%?) and customer support. Add in the massive software development costs to get everything working and debugged to 48 mbps bit rates (4 million lines of code for HD DVD; BD is probably more).

Then consider that there probably won't be many more BD addons sold than HD DVD drives (especially at $300-$350). And consider that MS has to sell the HD DVD add on for a profit, as there is no incentive to sell it for a loss. Then consider that they will be paying royalties to Sony, which is in effect like subsidizing the PS3.

The conclusion seems clear - no add on BD drive. No internal BD drive either, as that would drive up the manufacturing (and royalty) costs enormously.

Which is why Ballmer said they will support BD in "ways that make sense". He has to say that, as the monopoly police is always looking over his shoulder.

An add on doesn't make any sense financially.

As for the 720 (or whatever the follow on is called)...A VMD drive can hold 30GB, a bit rate of 40mbps and costs 10 times less than a BD drive. It is a plain red laser DVD drive with a tweaked firmware. It would be great for games and doesn't come with a ton of royalties.

Edit: One other possible conclusion - MS might consider making XBox360 BD addons in exchange for studio considerations i.e. download agreements. Studios might pressure MS to support BD on XBox to, in return, support XBox Live (or Media Center).

So how many companies are spending serious R&D $$$ making VMD drives, spending serious $$$ retooling their factory(s) just so microsoft can avoid BD. In <2 years taiwan will flood the market with bd-rom drives. BD rom drives will be vastly more common and cost much less than any VMD drive a supplier can provide. What drive oem company is going to invest all that money to go against industry trends . What replicator is spending $$$ to retool their lines yet again for xbox720 VMD rom production (6 layers for 30GB, yields??) when their only client is ms. Remember microsoft does not have to provide Blu-ray disk movie player functionality i.e. no codecs,HMDV,BD+,BD-j,etc. code to develop or debug. They might just use it as a ROM platform for games. I expect bare OEM BD-ROM drives to cost just $30-40 in 2 years time. MS knows this very well and can't stick with dvd9 roms forever for games. :cool:

Tes7769

03-09-08, 07:13 PM

Everdog

03-09-08, 07:18 PM

Let's hope they do not support Blu-ray the way they did HD DVD. They'll be no more HDM left!:D

Corellianrogue

03-09-08, 07:19 PM

captainjy

03-10-08, 01:25 AM

Contrary to what a lot of people are rumoring, while Microsoft will support Blu-Ray as a storage medium... don't expect to see a Blu-Ray add-on for the Xbox 360 EVER.

BTW Mr. Ballmer.... Thanks for trying to save the Supersonics!

Huh? I don't know what you are reading, but Sony commented last week that they are working with MS specifically on a BD device for the 360. It's unknown as to whether it's internal or external, but an add-on is going to happen, regardless. Unless MS has an exclusive deal with Netflix, a BD is inevitable. The first link is the news blurb and the second contains details:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ca6017de-eba6-11dc-9493-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2F www.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fca6017de-eba6-11dc-9493-0000779fd2ac.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_*********http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.pcworld.com%2Fgameon%2Farchiv es%2F006612.html&nclick_check=1

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca6017de-eba6-11dc-9493-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

penngray

03-10-08, 09:45 AM

Sony has asked MS,and MS has agreed to support and write "REAL" BlueRay drivers for Windows XP and Vista and to work with Sony in promoting different uses for BlueRay tech in pc computing.Nothing has been said about a BR drive for the 360 and nothing is likely to be said about one, because the chances of MS making one are about the same as that of Sony deciding to dump BR in favor of HD-DVD next month.

PCs have had BD drivers for a long time so your post about "REAL" makes no sense. I have had BD drives on both XP and Vista machines already. Generally Sony drivers have worked on PCs for years where have you been? What does "REAL" mean anyways are you saying we have "FAKE" drivers now on PCs? ;)

Dont be foolish about this either. This thread is 100% about the XBOX360 and yes Microsoft wants the XBOX360 to be a HDM player and therefore they need to have BD drive. Its pretty simple business isnt it!!!

user4avsforum

03-10-08, 03:00 PM

DVD is last decade’s technology and is quickly running out of space for PC and console requirements. Since its inevitable that the Xbox 720 will have integrated Blu-ray technology it makes good since to get something out there in the shorter term.

Any links to PC and console portable media storage requirements and trending? Such as a list of all 360 game size as stored on DVD? This would certainly help add some validity to your assertion.

I disagree that it is "inevitable" that the next gen XBOX will have a BD drive in it. Since MS seems to be happy making incremental changes to the XBOX, the next completely new XBOX will probably not hit stores for a minimum of 3 years, more likely 5+. Given that timeframe look for new game delivery methods to be available. Perhaps a more radical approach to the hybrid delivery that has already started - the core game delivered on the disk with a very substantial portion delivered incrementally over the Internet. Of course alternate storage formats - e.g. flash.

Dahlsim

03-10-08, 03:11 PM

Sony has asked MS,and MS has agreed to support and write "REAL" BlueRay drivers for Windows XP and Vista and to work with Sony in promoting different uses for BlueRay tech in pc computing.Nothing has been said about a BR drive for the 360 and nothing is likely to be said about one, because the chances of MS making one are about the same as that of Sony deciding to dump BR in favor of HD-DVD next month.

Blu-ray is now the industry standard for HDM with the full support of the combined Movie industry so MS vs Sony should become almost a non-factor in MS considerations.

Just as Sony has products that use MS Windows because it makes sense in many cases MS will likely use the same pragmatic business approach and use Blu-ray whereever it makes sense for their business.

WirelessGuru

03-10-08, 07:28 PM

Huh? I don't know what you are reading, but Sony commented last week that they are working with MS specifically on a BD device for the 360. It's unknown as to whether it's internal or external, but an add-on is going to happen, regardless. Unless MS has an exclusive deal with Netflix, a BD is inevitable. The first link is the news blurb and the second contains details:You can read a lot of stuff online that is total garbage. How about we check back in a month and see who was right?

mva5580

03-10-08, 07:57 PM

The fanboys in this thread are sad at best, utterly pathetic at worst.

ANYWAY, if MS ever did release a Blu-Ray add-on, unfortunately it would most likely not support the HD audio just like the HD-DVD drive, making it not worth the money. I'd sell my PS3 if MS came out with a full functioning BR add-on, but I highly doubt it'll happen.

Corellianrogue

03-10-08, 08:49 PM

You can read a lot of stuff online that is total garbage. How about we check back in a month and see who was right?

This is an article from a reputable business website (the Financial Times) who are actually talking to Sony so it's not just some internet rumour. Besides, we all (well, us HD DVD supporters anyway) didn't want to believe the Toshiba rumours about quitting HD DVD but they turned out to be true didn't they?

Corellianrogue

03-10-08, 08:53 PM

Any links to PC and console portable media storage requirements and trending? Such as a list of all 360 game size as stored on DVD? This would certainly help add some validity to your assertion.

I disagree that it is "inevitable" that the next gen XBOX will have a BD drive in it. Since MS seems to be happy making incremental changes to the XBOX, the next completely new XBOX will probably not hit stores for a minimum of 3 years, more likely 5+. Given that timeframe look for new game delivery methods to be available. Perhaps a more radical approach to the hybrid delivery that has already started - the core game delivered on the disk with a very substantial portion delivered incrementally over the Internet. Of course alternate storage formats - e.g. flash.

Technology moves too fast to wait that long, especially these days. I'd say a new Xbox will be announced either at E3 2009 and be released in time for Christmas 2009 or announced at E3 2010 for Christmas 2010 at the very latest. Console makers can't wait longer than 5 years between console upgrades as the old ones will just become too obsolete technologically.

briankmonkey

03-10-08, 08:59 PM

Technology moves too fast to wait that long, especially these days. I'd say a new Xbox will be announced either at E3 2009 and be released in time for Christmas 2009 or announced at E3 2010 for Christmas 2010 at the very latest. Console makers can't wait longer than 5 years between console upgrades as the old ones will just become too obsolete technologically.

I'm not sure how fast MS will rush to the market again. They've definitely got a big demon to overcome in the perception of their 360's reliability. The longer the wait (assuming they get QC in check) the better they may be off, or maybe they could outsources a quality manufacture to make their hardware next time. I'd be happy if they simply ran the online service for one of the other big console company's, stick to what they do best ;). Nintendo or Sony and MS joining up to do a 1080p system would be a crazy beast :D

http://i25.tinypic.com/2co262h.jpg

Corellianrogue

03-10-08, 10:15 PM

I'm not sure how fast MS will rush to the market again. They've definitely got a big demon to overcome in the perception of their 360's reliability. The longer the wait (assuming they get QC in check) the better they may be off, or maybe they could outsources a quality manufacture to make their hardware next time. I'd be happy if they simply ran the online service for one of the other big console company's, stick to what they do best ;). Nintendo or Sony and MS joining up to do a 1080p system would be a crazy beast :D

http://i25.tinypic.com/2co262h.jpg

Microsoft was in a race against the PS3 this time. Now it doesn't have to rush as much as obviously the PS4 won't be out until at least 2010 so next time it can bring the "Xbox720" out in 2009 if it's fully ready or wait until 2010 when the manufacturing of it is perfected if it isn't pefected in 2009. Of course this is just an estimate and they may have problems with the next Xbox that causes a delay and they end up having to rush it anyway and it has manufacting problems again but hopefully that won't happen, lol! By the way, I assume that you feel the same way about the PS1 & 2's bad failure rate too?

user4avsforum

03-13-08, 12:02 PM

This is an article from a reputable business website (the Financial Times) who are actually talking to Sony so it's not just some internet rumour. Besides, we all (well, us HD DVD supporters anyway) didn't want to believe the Toshiba rumours about quitting HD DVD but they turned out to be true didn't they?

And then this came out Microsoft says no Blu-ray for XBOX 360 (http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1224707720080313?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true)

"Xbox is not currently in talks with Sony or the Blu-ray Association to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience," Greenberg told Reuters in an interview.

I guess Sony embellished a little.

OP should change title to Microsoft: "We'll NOT support Blu-ray in XBOX 360" :)

Figgie

03-13-08, 12:10 PM

another one bites the dust...

and another one down another one down. Another one bites the dust.

I wonder what will be Thursdays rumor of the day!

iceperson

03-13-08, 12:24 PM

And then this came out Microsoft says no Blu-ray for XBOX 360 (http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1224707720080313?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true)

I guess Sony embellished a little.

OP should change title to Microsoft: "We'll NOT support Blu-ray in XBOX 360" :)

+1

And then in 2 months when there's a blu ray drive for the 360 this thread can be combined with the ones that quoted warner execs saying they had no plans to abandon HD DVD...

30XS955 User

03-13-08, 12:28 PM

And then this came out Microsoft says no Blu-ray for XBOX 360 (http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN1224707720080313?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true)

I guess Sony embellished a little.

OP should change title to Microsoft: "We'll NOT support Blu-ray in XBOX 360" :)

Isn't it funny how two different Microsoft executives can make conflicting statements, but the one made by the subordinate employee is given more credibility than the one made by Ballmer (or whatever his name is) himself?

briankmonkey

03-13-08, 02:06 PM

Isn't it funny how two different Microsoft executives can make conflicting statements, but the one made by the subordinate employee is given more credibility than the one made by Ballmer (or whatever his name is) himself?

Did Balmer say they would have a blu-ray add-on for the 360?

jvillain

03-13-08, 02:55 PM

I couldn't care either way. The last time Microsoft made the right decision was .... was ... was ....

Can some one help me out here.

30XS955 User

03-13-08, 03:50 PM

Did Balmer say they would have a blu-ray add-on for the 360?

Yes, sorry, my post was a little awkward. That's what I meant. He has more credibility than the director of sales or whatever.

briankmonkey

03-13-08, 03:59 PM

Yes, sorry, my post was a little awkward. That's what I meant. He has more credibility than the director of sales or whatever.

Ok, thanks. I wasn't aware that he had said that. What site has the quote?

jkcheng122

03-13-08, 04:09 PM

I couldn't care either way. The last time Microsoft made the right decision was .... was ... was ....

Can some one help me out here.

they offered free downgrade for Vista users and also extended the lifecycle of XP.

briankmonkey

03-13-08, 04:18 PM

Wow, just read from the same site..

"Toshiba faces $986 mln loss on HD DVDs -Nikkei"

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUST28297520080313

TOKYO, March 13 (Reuters) - Japan's Toshiba Corp (6502.T: Quote, Profile, Research) is likely to book a 100 billion yen ($986 million) loss in its high-definition DVD business and post a full-year operating profit of around 250 billion yen, falling short of its outlook, the Nikkei business daily said on Thursday.

Shares of Toshiba opened down 2.3 percent at 717 yen on the report.

Toshiba's decision to pull the plug on HD DVDs will entail production line changes and other charges that would double the 50 billion yen loss the electronics group had previously expected this business year on next-generation DVDs, the Nikkei said. [ID:nHDDVD]

"We did not announce this, and therefore we cannot comment," a Toshiba spokeswoman said.

Figgie

03-13-08, 04:23 PM

Wow, just read from the same site..

"Toshiba faces $986 mln loss on HD DVDs -Nikkei"

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUST28297520080313

always the bad..... lol

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTKB00299720080313

as amir stated, there are numerous thing a company wants to do to pad a loss (and I really mean make it bigger than it really is).

funny that this aquisition of NFI is also valued at hundreds of millions of dollars.

6 billion for Westinghouse aquisition in 2006
100's million for Nuclear Fuel Industries.........

Everdog

03-13-08, 04:24 PM

Ok, thanks. I wasn't aware that he had said that. What site has the quote?

FYI, Balmer did say MS would support Blu-ray...he said "yeah, we'll support Blu-ray...just like we did HD DVD, moohoohahaa (evil MS laugh)"

rob316

03-13-08, 04:36 PM

TomsHT

03-13-08, 04:38 PM

Are there any 30g/50g games for any system?

rob316

03-13-08, 04:40 PM

Are there any 30g/50g games for any system?

No not as of yet, but bet your almighty dollar Sony knows it has the ability to do it, and will use it to their advantage to beat MS.

guima

03-13-08, 04:45 PM

MS will have to support some type of DVD drive with increased DVD size. Remeber the PS3 has BR which can support up to 50gb, Sony can release a game that is 30gb with all the bells and whistles while Microsoft 360 or 720 games can still only handle 9gb. If I had to pick a gaming system that supports 30gb games or 9gb games, I will take the 30gb anyday. We will see what MS does.

Exactly! Both consoles are RAM limited, so the storage size advantage of the PS3 is less important (or it has been until now). However, once they start adding more RAM to the new consoles, a larger (than DVD9) media becomes absolutely mandatory.
I'd be very surprised if the next xbox doesn't come with blu-ray out of the box.

Figgie

03-13-08, 04:53 PM

Exactly! Both consoles are RAM limited, so the storage size advantage of the PS3 is less important (or it has been until now). However, once they start adding more RAM to the new consoles, a larger (than DVD9) media becomes absolutely mandatory.
I'd be very surprised if the next xbox doesn't come with blu-ray out of the box.

I would have to caution that mentality especially from a IT stand point.

RDRAM (Rambus DRAM) was superior in every single way imaginable to SDRAM/DDR DRAM. Performance etc. The only thing it was not superior to SDRAM/DDR DRAM was in price and even when the price was almost on par (within 20% of DRAM). It still did not catch on in the PC market.

efjay

03-13-08, 04:56 PM

MS will have to support some type of DVD drive with increased DVD size. Remeber the PS3 has BR which can support up to 50gb, Sony can release a game that is 30gb with all the bells and whistles while Microsoft 360 or 720 games can still only handle 9gb. If I had to pick a gaming system that supports 30gb games or 9gb games, I will take the 30gb anyday. We will see what MS does.

The ps3 has a disc size advantage already but that hasnt guaranteed better quality games. Having more disc space does not guarantee better games, far better to judge the game on its gameplay etc rather than how much disc space it occupies.

rob316

03-13-08, 04:58 PM

The ps3 has a disc size advantage already but that hasnt guaranteed better quality games. Having more disc space does not guarantee better games, far better to judge the game on its gameplay etc rather than how much disc space it occupies.

I will have to disagree, imagine a game in true 1080p with the 2 HD audio formats now thats a game. You can fit that type of game on BR but not Xbox 360 due to the size limitation of DVD.

Figgie

03-13-08, 05:00 PM

I will have to disagree, imagine a game in true 1080p with the 2 HD audio formats now thats a game. You can fit that type of game on BR but not Xbox 360 due to the size limitation of DVD.

and that makes the game better LOOKING but how well does it play? Hate to bring this here but Wii has some pretty rudimentary (ie no photorealistic, no HD etc) looking games but they are WONDERFUL to play. efjay is totally correct.

wei2008

03-13-08, 05:01 PM

I will have to disagree, imagine a game in true 1080p with the 2 HD audio formats now thats a game. You can fit that type of game on BR but not Xbox 360 due to the size limitation of DVD.

I agree with your point, however, imagination is not reality, :)

rob316

03-13-08, 05:04 PM

and that makes the game better LOOKING but how well does it play? Hate to bring this here but Wii has some pretty rudimentary (ie no photorealistic, no HD etc) looking games but they are WONDERFUL to play. efjay is totally correct.

I agree with you the gameplay may be the same,but for a second imagine the baseball game,The Show with 1080p video and HD audio along with actual picures of stadiums and other visual features that they can put on that would be great.

Figgie

03-13-08, 05:16 PM

I agree with you the gameplay may be the same,but for a second imagine the baseball game,The Show with 1080p video and HD audio along with actual picures of stadiums and other visual features that they can put on that would be great.

Again it depends on how well the game PLAYS. I know of 1080p and actually I play at 1600x1200 with 8X AA and all those doodads. In the end if the game is yuck, even though it looks great, the game is still yuck ;)

iceperson

03-13-08, 05:18 PM

Are there any 30g/50g games for any system?

http://kotaku.com/362807/kojima-says-blu+ray-disc-doesnt-have-enough-space

Kojima: For us, we're not still not satisfied with the quality we can do. You know, there's not capacity space.

Interviewer: Wait, wait a sec. Saying there's not enough capacity, are you talking about Blu-ray?

Kojima: That's correct. There's not enough space at all. (laughs) ...There's not enough space. We always talked about where to cut and what to compress.

rob316

03-13-08, 05:20 PM

Again it depends on how well the game PLAYS. I know of 1080p and actually I play at 1600x1200 with 8X AA and all those doodads. In the end if the game is yuck, even though it looks great, the game is still yuck ;)

Good point, but how many games would really sux? Not many.

Figgie

03-13-08, 05:25 PM

Good point, but how many games would really sux? Not many.

That is a matter of opinion. :)

briankmonkey

03-13-08, 05:53 PM

Atar had some fun games on the 2600 hundred, NES had tons of fun games, SNES, Genesis, etc. Still each generation the storage medium evolved. I can't think of anything aside from the xbox to xbox360 that didn't evolved for a follow up console. A few 360 dev's have already complained about the DVD drive in the 360 and games have already had content reduced. Of course games in general are targeted to whatever the system is capable of so they can simply keep on eye on space.

mva5580

03-13-08, 06:09 PM

Atar had some fun games on the 2600 hundred, NES had tons of fun games, SNES, Genesis, etc. Still each generation the storage medium evolved.

That's hardly true. The NES, SNES, and N64 were all cartridge based. Not much evolution there. The Sega Master System and Genesis were both cartridges.

If anything, technology has just advanced quicker now so these console makers feel the need to adapt. PS1/CD, PS2/DVD, PS3/Blu-Ray. So what's next for PS4? Are you saying you want to see ANOTHER new format for that?

The problem with the PC Gaming industry seems to be making its way over to consoles. Hardware advancing too quickly with people unable to keep up, therefore the cost of hardware keeps going up, making it difficult for consumers to keep up.

briankmonkey

03-13-08, 07:24 PM

That's hardly true. The NES, SNES, and N64 were all cartridge based. Not much evolution there. The Sega Master System and Genesis were both cartridges.

If anything, technology has just advanced quicker now so these console makers feel the need to adapt. PS1/CD, PS2/DVD, PS3/Blu-Ray. So what's next for PS4? Are you saying you want to see ANOTHER new format for that?

The problem with the PC Gaming industry seems to be making its way over to consoles. Hardware advancing too quickly with people unable to keep up, therefore the cost of hardware keeps going up, making it difficult for consumers to keep up.

The capacity on those cartridges were not equal between systems. Same goes for CD's, DVD's and Blu-ray's.

I did not say I wanted another format for the PS4. I expect the PS4 to use a blu-ray drive as well considering how much they've been able to store on a 1 disc already.

restart

03-13-08, 11:59 PM

Wow, just read from the same site..

"Toshiba faces $986 mln loss on HD DVDs -Nikkei"

http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNews/idUST28297520080313

:eek:

That's much higher than even I expected. This staggering loss shows that Toshiba was bleeding to death and could not have continued the format war. I expected $300-500M in losses but not $986,000,000! Toshiba was probably eating a $200-300 loss on each unit when factoring in upfront R&D, factory operation and retooling expenses, Paramount& Dreamworks subsidies, marketing, advertizing, incredible number of free movies, etc. Lots of AVSers cashed in while Toshiba ended up paying the tab. So were $98 A2s+7 free movies really profitable? :)

30XS955 User

03-14-08, 12:13 AM

30XS955 User

03-14-08, 12:17 AM

Put another way, you usually hold some asset which you amortize and expense out over the useful life of the asset. When Toshy discontinued HD DVD, they had to expense the assets associated with HD DVD in their entirety immediately!

Anyway even if MS does release a BD drive for the Xbox I probably won't buy it. I only need one BD player for the time being.

moviegeek

03-14-08, 12:23 AM

they offered free downgrade for Vista users and also extended the lifecycle of XP.

:D Funny but true.
As for Microsoft not supporting Blu Ray:I don't blame them,they would gain nothing monetarily from making a BD add-on for the 360.
I can see an after market company making one though.

tgable

03-14-08, 01:47 AM

Exactly! Both consoles are RAM limited, so the storage size advantage of the PS3 is less important (or it has been until now). However, once they start adding more RAM to the new consoles, a larger (than DVD9) media becomes absolutely mandatory.
I'd be very surprised if the next xbox doesn't come with blu-ray out of the box.

That doesn't makes sense. The storage could be used for better video and audio, which have nothing to do with RAM. Most new games (like Uncharted, Gears, etc.) use texture streaming, so they do not load all the texture for a level at once. You could in theory have 20GB of textures and only show 200MB in any given scene. More disc space is always better.

darinp2

03-14-08, 01:54 AM

:eek:

That's much higher than even I expected. This staggering loss shows that Toshiba was bleeding to death and could not have continued the format war. I expected $300-500M in losses but not $986,000,000! Toshiba was probably eating a $200-300 loss on each unit when factoring in upfront R&D, factory operation and retooling expenses, Paramount& Dreamworks subsidies, marketing, advertizing, incredible number of free movies, etc. Lots of AVSers cashed in while Toshiba ended up paying the tab. So were $98 A2s+7 free movies really profitable? :)I remember when one poster here kept telling us how well he understood business, and also claimed that Toshiba had created a sustainable business model, while Sony hadn't. I realize there are a lot of things in that $986 million, but given that HD DVD should top out with less than 1 million customers (many of us have more than one player and the number of players isn't likely to be that far from one million), the average will likely be higher than $1000 per customer in that loss.

Also, Toshiba probably had losses for HD DVD in previous quarters or last fiscal year, so total losses for Toshiba for the format may end up being higher than the $986 million (although I haven't looked at the wording to see what the time period was for that $986 million).

BTW: I looked at the article and it looks like the loss wasn't really given as $986 million. This looks like another case of somebody not understanding significant digits. The loss was stated as 100 billion yen. That could easily be over $1 billion dollars as the 100 billion yen is a round number.

And according to the article pulling the plug doubled the loss from an already expected close to half a billion dollar loss. Half a billion would have been an average of $500 per customer if we counted 1 million customers.

--Darin

restart

03-14-08, 02:19 AM

Well if we accept that Toshiba sold say ~600,000 standalones in the US, not counting overseas sales & xbox360 addons then we roughly get

$986,000,000 / 600,000 units = $-1643.33 per unit

Great way to run a business, a sustainable business model. :)

cmvolt

03-14-08, 02:36 AM

Microsoft picked up the scent of green and chose to go BLU...the rest of the red ants should follow the scent to that picnic...;)

amirm

03-14-08, 03:00 AM

I remember when one poster here kept telling us how well he understood business, and also claimed that Toshiba had created a sustainable business model, while Sony hadn't. I realize there are a lot of things in that $986 million, but given that HD DVD should top out with less than 1 million customers (many of us have more than one player and the number of players isn't likely to be that far from one million), the average will likely be higher than $1000 per customer in that loss.

Comments like this make me think folks have never been in a company when the discussion of what to write down occur. It is an eye opening experience to say the least. And nothing that makes sense to a layman, or worse, an engineer :D.

HD DVD has cost Toshiba a lot of money to develop and market. But let's not assume that you know the per-player cost because you really don't based on that number. The write-down could be inflated by 3X, 5X, 10X or any other number unknown to folks here. What is known is that it is always, always inflated as to increase future profitability. Market expects the bad news, making it worse has no impact.

CE business these days is not about making money outside of what Apple does. It is about back-end patent and licensing revenues which had not yet kicked in.

darinp2

03-14-08, 03:18 AM

Comments like this make me think folks have never been in a company when the discussion of what to write down occur. It is an eye opening experience to say the least. And nothing that makes sense to a layman, or worse, an engineer :D. It makes sense to me (I expect them to do that because it is the smart thing to do, just like I told somebody when Microsoft announced the $1.1 billion writeoff for the XBOX360 problems that they likely included extra stuff), but you probably didn't read the article and are making assumptions that aren't in what I wrote.
HD DVD has cost Toshiba a lot of money to develop and market. But let's not assume that you know the per-player cost because you really don't based on that number. The write-down could be inflated by 3X, 5X, 10X or any other number unknown to folks here.The article stated that they were going to report a loss of 50 billion yen for that division before they folded and 100 billion now. How about not assuming I said I know the per-player cost when I never any such thing.

I said that a reported loss of $1 billion would mean that the average will likely be higher than $1000 per customer in that loss and that is true. Sure, they can lie about how big the loss is etc. (and often do even if they skirt things so they can say they didn't lie), but within that reported loss it would turn out like I said. And one million customers is likely being very generous, so leaves room for some losses that weren't really losses from this to be included.

But yeah, maybe they only lost $100 million on HD DVD and will say they lost $1 billion. Some fans can always dream. :)
CE business these days is not about making money outside of what Apple does. It is about back-end patent and licensing revenues which had not yet kicked in.Lots of stuff hadn't kicked in, which is why their average loss for the number of customers they will end up with will likely be very high.

--Darin

cmvolt

03-14-08, 03:31 AM

Do we really care that Toshiba lost billions in the format war?? Why is the failed format we identify as HD-DVD still relevant in this forum?? Why do early adopters who contribute nothing to this forum still have a soapbox to stand on?? Insiders are now the outsiders...this is fact...I looked out my window today and I saw that the sky is blue...I would hope that the same was true...in your world...:rolleyes:

K.L.

03-14-08, 03:37 AM

and that makes the game better LOOKING but how well does it play? Hate to bring this here but Wii has some pretty rudimentary (ie no photorealistic, no HD etc) looking games but they are WONDERFUL to play. efjay is totally correct.The developer of the GTA4 said they had to cut the size of the city map due to the size limit of DVD.
Do we really care that Toshiba lost billions in the format war?? Why is the failed format we identify as HD-DVD still relevant in this forum?? Why do early adopters who contribute nothing to this forum still have a soapbox to stand on?? Insiders are now the outsiders...this is fact...I looked out my window today and I saw that the sky is blue...I would hope that the same was true...in your world...:rolleyes:I like this phrase "Insiders are now the outsiders" :D

amirm

03-14-08, 03:59 AM

How about not assuming I said I know the per-player cost when I never any such thing.

I said that a reported loss of $1 billion would mean that the average will likely be higher than $1000 per customer in that loss and that is true.
What you are saying here, is what I am calling per-player cost. You are taking $1B and dividing it by the number of customers to arrive at the cost to Toshiba for each player sold. This is only accurate if $1B is indeed the direct/past expenses for Toshiba. Yet, you have no assurance of that.
Sure, they can lie about how big the loss is etc. (and often do even if they skirt things so they can say they didn't lie), but within that reported loss it would turn out like I said.
Please Darin. Don't use words like "lie." It is an improper characterization of what is done here and borders on slander. There are laws that govern what public companies do and it certainly does not allow them to "lie." It allows them to include expenses that may not make sense to people not in finance and schooled in how these things work. But it doesn't make them liars.

But yeah, maybe they only lost $100 million on HD DVD and will say they lost $1 billion. Some fans can always dream. :)
--Darin
I don't think the fans should care one way or the other how Toshiba conducts its finances. That is for them and their shareholders to deal with.

Companies on both sides of this business have spent so much money as to make anyone's head spin and never stop! Don't think that anyone is sitting happy right this minute because they still have something to sell. There needs to be a hell of a lot more customers before this thing makes any economic sense…

iwaspushed

03-14-08, 04:07 AM

Sony claims that they talking with Microsoft about a Blu-ray drive in the XBOX 360 product line. However, Microsoft says that there is no truth to the story.

Aaron Greenberg, Group Marketing Manager for Xbox, talked with Reuters and said "Xbox is not currently in talks with Sony or the Blu-ray Association to integrate Blu-ray into the Xbox experience,"

"Microsoft, which has stopped making an HD-DVD add-on for the Xbox 360, would continue to invest in its Xbox Live online service that already lets users rent hundreds of movies, including ones in high-definition." according to Reuters.

"We're the only console offering digital distribution of entertainment content," Greenberg said.

Source: Reuters.

30XS955 User

03-14-08, 09:07 AM

Companies on both sides of this business have spent so much money as to make anyone's head spin and never stop! Don't think that anyone is sitting happy right this minute because they still have something to sell. There needs to be a hell of a lot more customers before this thing makes any economic sense…

Amir, in your opinion, do you feel that the prospective buyers Toshiba was targeting are the same that the BDA is currently targeting? I only ask because at one point you, MS, and Toshiba believed HD DVD was a technology worth investing in, but now I'm hearing that companies have already lost so much money that it may have been a mistake in the first place. Please help me and others reconcile these statements.

guima

03-14-08, 11:09 AM

That doesn't makes sense. The storage could be used for better video and audio, which have nothing to do with RAM. Most new games (like Uncharted, Gears, etc.) use texture streaming, so they do not load all the texture for a level at once. You could in theory have 20GB of textures and only show 200MB in any given scene. More disc space is always better.

There is so much juggling one can do with textures, and data in general.
If you are seeing a texture, it's in memory. At any given time, what you see on the screen is in Memory. A GPU can only render what it has in its RAM (or mapped ram).

But, note that I didn't specify which memory in my post earlier, I just said RAM. People tend to focus on video and GPU and forgo that everything they see has a meaning (or should have) and there tons of other stuff going on while the video is being rendered.

Both consoles are very limited RAM wise. That's the real reason they cannot touch a gaming PC. This is pretty much a consensus, check beyond3d.com for more info.

amirm

03-14-08, 12:11 PM

Amir, in your opinion, do you feel that the prospective buyers Toshiba was targeting are the same that the BDA is currently targeting? I only ask because at one point you, MS, and Toshiba believed HD DVD was a technology worth investing in, but now I'm hearing that companies have already lost so much money that it may have been a mistake in the first place. Please help me and others reconcile these statements.
Boy, that is a pretty smart question :).

Actually, you asked two questions. On first one, I think both sides targeted the same customers. What they got in reality at a precise level is hard to tell. I tend to think the majority were early adopter/tech-savvy customers although clearly, a lot of PS3 customers may not fall in that category. Ditto for $99 HD DVD purchasers.

On your second, my statement was relative to anchor providers of each format: Sony and Toshiba. We know the latter has no way of recouping its investments so yes, given this outcome, it did not pay for them to get into it. For Sony, the same is true as I sit here even though BD is the victor. Reason for that is simple. Sony has traded profitability of PS3 to gain BD’s success. In my view, BD at best will make up for the losses here, and most likely not.

It is my opinion that PS3 did not need to have a BD drive in it to be accomplish its goal as a successor to PS2. They could have gone to a red-laser, 0.3mm recoding, ala PSP, to get more storage than DVD and bragging rights from having a proprietary format. That would have let them ship sooner potentially as getting yields on blue-laser was a nightmare for them (and super costly in the form of manufacturing equipment – estimates run into hundreds of millions). And just as importantly, be able to price the console at a lower price. Since the success metric for a console is based on exponential curve of installed base, if one were to add these factors up, you wind up with losses that are incredibility high. All of this is above and beyond what they have had to do to make BD win the format war and market it. Other companies happily let Sony carry the bulk of the weight here.

Add to above the fact that selling players, will become a money losing proposition if one has any dreams of taking over DVD, and you see that the ROI is hard pressed to be in the positive category.

Therefore, I believe the format war was driven primarily by pride of being the leader on this next gen format than any kind of ROI analysis...

iceperson

03-14-08, 01:00 PM

Boy, that is a pretty smart question :).

Actually, you asked two questions. On first one, I think both sides targeted the same customers. What they got in reality at a precise level is hard to tell. I tend to think the majority were early adopter/tech-savvy customers although clearly, a lot of PS3 customers may not fall in that category. Ditto for $99 HD DVD purchasers.

On your second, my statement was relative to anchor providers of each format: Sony and Toshiba. We know the latter has no way of recouping its investments so yes, given this outcome, it did not pay for them to get into it. For Sony, the same is true as I sit here even though BD is the victor. Reason for that is simple. Sony has traded profitability of PS3 to gain BD’s success. In my view, BD at best will make up for the losses here, and most likely not.

It is my opinion that PS3 did not need to have a BD drive in it to be accomplish its goal as a successor to PS2. They could have gone to a red-laser, 0.3mm recoding, ala PSP, to get more storage than DVD and bragging rights from having a proprietary format. That would have let them ship sooner potentially as getting yields on blue-laser was a nightmare for them (and super costly in the form of manufacturing equipment – estimates run into hundreds of millions). And just as importantly, be able to price the console at a lower price. Since the success metric for a console is based on exponential curve of installed base, if one were to add these factors up, you wind up with losses that are incredibility high. All of this is above and beyond what they have had to do to make BD win the format war and market it. Other companies happily let Sony carry the bulk of the weight here.

Add to above the fact that selling players, will become a money losing proposition if one has any dreams of taking over DVD, and you see that the ROI is hard pressed to be in the positive category.

Therefore, I believe the format war was driven primarily by pride of being the leader on this next gen format than any kind of ROI analysis...

Since you brought up profitability of consoles I wonder what your take is on your former employers rush to beat Sony to market which seems to have lead to them releasing what is essentially a defective by design product. How would you compare the over $1 billion hit for selling faulty hardware to the investment Sony made?

Figgie

03-14-08, 01:10 PM

Figgie

03-14-08, 01:18 PM

The developer of the GTA4 said they had to cut the size of the city map due to the size limit of DVD.

and your point is? Does having smaller maps detract from the overall game play? Yes or no. If it doesn't then the game is for you. If it does, then the game is not for you. It is that cut and dry :)

K.L.

03-14-08, 01:42 PM

and your point is? Does having smaller maps detract from the overall game play? Yes or no. If it doesn't then the game is for you. If it does, then the game is not for you. It is that cut and dry :)Nice try. What's the point of bringing up "game play" when you yourself are not much interested in it?

But I'd say 360's biggest drawback is its lack of standard HDD, it hurts more than DVD. Dreaming about online downloads with consoles without HDD? Hilarious.

Figgie

03-14-08, 01:47 PM

Nice try. What's the point of bringing up "game play" when you yourself are not much interested in it?

But I'd say 360's biggest drawback is its lack of standard HDD, it hurts more than DVD.

actaully I am. I could care if it looks "real', if it is plays like a turd....... then it is a good looking turd (if there is such a beast).

iceperson

03-14-08, 02:33 PM

actaully I am. I could care if it looks "real', if it is plays like a turd....... then it is a good looking turd (if there is such a beast).

Why do you think great game play and great graphics are mutually exclusive?

Figgie

03-14-08, 02:49 PM

Why do you think great game play and great graphics are mutually exclusive?

seriously do you guys do selective reading?

I play numerous games that look good and play good (Unreal Tournament 3 as of lately @ 1600x1200).

What I am saying, Just because it looks good does not mean it will play good. I am not an eye candy only person. I care about the overall package.

Clear as mud now?

amirm

03-14-08, 08:51 PM

Since you brought up profitability of consoles I wonder what your take is on your former employers rush to beat Sony to market which seems to have lead to them releasing what is essentially a defective by design product. How would you compare the over $1 billion hit for selling faulty hardware to the investment Sony made?
I am not sure why you are asking me about this as it has nothing to do with HD optical. I was not in Xbox division when the machine was designed so don’t know what they could or could not have done different. I was however, very close to the people who ultimately decided to put a BD drive in PS3 and expectations which were set prior to launch of the product in the eyes of Hollywood and technology providers which backed BD.

Having said that, do I think it is good to put out products that require such expensive warranty claims later? No. But mistakes are made anyway. Time for a little story :). When the Sony PSP came out in Japan, I happen to be visiting Kutaragi-san and he was kind enough to give me one to bring home. Our kids were talk of their school, having a PSP when no other soul in US had one. All of that came to a crash a couple of months later when one of the buttons stopped working and you couldn't use the device anymore. They go online just to find out that it was happening to a lot of those units in Japan. So here we have a hardware company who should know how to put a working switch in a device, yet something went wrong.

The Sony battery recall was another ironic thing. When I worked for Sony, we were building a laptop and I wanted to use Lithium batteries to get more battery life in a portable workstation we were designing. This was 18 years ago, before anyone had thought about using them in laptops. I met the engineers in Sony battery group and found them quite hesitant to make a battery pack for me. I asked why. They said the chemistry was highly unstable and that if a large battery pack shorted out, it could catch on fire and create big liability for them. Fast forward a decade and a half later, and you see Sony (and some other companies) recalling Lithium batteries for same kind of failure. So even with full knowledge of potential issues, and with good engineers behind things, bad things can happen. It is not excusable of course. But these things do happen. One can only hope that proper learning is in place to avoid them in the future.

By the way, on the $1B, once more, I hope people understand that you can’t use layman finance to judge these dollar amounts. A few years ago, I wanted to build a state of the art listening room in our building at Microsoft. So we brought in consultants and decided to convert a conference room to be used this way. All we were doing was knocking the walls down and building them up again using acoustical design practices. The bill was a cool $270,000! I took it to my boss and just about blew a fuse, telling he had just built a complete new addition to his house for less than that and here were just moving four walls. He signed the thing after I explained that these are internal costs and that is just the way the billing works. Not to say these things are monopoly money but I hope we agree that none of us have spent $270K to create just the space for home theater!