By participating in the contest, you agree to the following:

1- Nielsen/VideoScan gets a statistically significant amount of sales data. It does not get all data, but the amount it gets is far more than sufficient to be useful and statistically significant.
2- If the studios had aligned differently, things would be different. See, we all agree on that now. There is no need to discuss it ad nauseam.
3- If not for BOGOs and other sales, things would be different.
4- Did anyone really believe the Democratic nomination would last longer than this contest?
5- Studios have made decisions based on factors confessed to and not confessed to. What those factors are is irrelevant to any possible on topic discussion in this thread.
6- People make predictions based on a wide variety of assumptions and for different reasons. Do not make fun of the person make fun of the pick, especially if it does not add up to 100%.
7- Saying the real contest is now Blu-ray vs. DVD and then posting the ratio for that is not witty or clever. Oh, it might have been when it was done the first time. That is in the past. All it does now is make the poster look petty.
8- Yes, this thread is not the most relevant thread in the universe. People coming in here and commenting on how pointless it is really should get out some more. Talk to some girls, breath some fresh air, that sort of thing. People who lack the sense to not click on a thread that is clearly labeled and on a topic that does not interest them likely have a far more serious problem.
9- While discussion of the various calendars is fascinating, this is not the place for it.
10- This list is likely to get longer as time goes by.

If you are unable to follow these rules, you will get a warning. If you break them again, I will put you on ignore. Actually, you will likely be asked by the mods to not post in the thread again.

Both sides have a slim release slate this week. We'll start with Blu-ray and it's mighty three releases. Fox brings Ice Age and the awfully named Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium to Blu this week. They are joined by Disney's real life baseball classic The Rookie.

HD DVD sadly bids adieu to Paramount this week as they release their last HD DDVD title with Into The Wild. Pretty appropriate name for a last title, actually. They are joined by Dreamwork's last release with the also aptly named Things We Lost In the Fire. Things are rounded out with Warner's delayed release of No Reservations and Navarre's Mystic Forests.

There are no neutral releases this week.

As always, thanks to manikin for maintaining the release schedule.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on March 7th will cover sales from February 25th-March 2nd, inclusive.


HD DVD
Into The Wild (Paramount)
Things We Lost In The Fire (Dreamworks)
Mystic Forests (Navarre Corporation)
No Reservations (Warner)

Blu-ray
Ice Age (Fox)
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Fox)
The Rookie (2002) (Walt Disney)

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81
4 136 14 91 (10) [26] 81 60 (21) [96] 77.58 79 78
5 110 0 96 (23) [109] 73 70 (3) [1] 85.32 85 85
6 88 1 92 (15) [62] 77 60 (17) [25] 79.30 80 80
7 88 9 91 (16) [53] 75 20 (55) [26] 75.02 76 78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.



Nielsen contest results for 03/07/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 75:25

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
hammie34 75:25 1 0.00
SRR 76:24 1 1.00
EJ1 76:24 1 1.00
Cnd Joe 74:26 1 1.00
petetheaxe 76:24 2 2.50
h0mi 76:24 5 2.80
dad1153 77:23 2 3.00
Kamakzie 78:22 1 3.00
online 75:25 7 3.71
SGRSBSKIER 75:25 7 3.71
theflux 75:25 7 3.71
patrick99 78:22 6 3.83
Kemet 77:23 6 3.83
bato 75:25 7 3.86
Jiffylush 75:25 7 3.86
Sketcha 74:26 7 3.86
dc_pilgrim 72:28 7 4.00
Staying Salty 72:28 6 4.17
spazzcat 75:25 4 4.25
darinp2 78:22 7 4.29
Winn 76:24 7 4.29
phansson 74:26 7 4.29
Jackietreehorn 74:26 6 4.33
neillkrin 77:23 7 4.43
HuntzHD 78:22 7 4.57
Neo1965 78:22 7 4.57
UxiSXRD 78:22 7 4.57
Richard Paul 73:27 7 4.57
tomsteeper 71:29 7 4.57
Rich Peterson 80:20 7 4.71
eightninesuited 72:28 7 4.71
ICBM99 78:22 6 4.83
Random Digital 80:20 7 4.86
lomax 78:22 7 4.86
basano 81:19 7 5.00
merlintl 81:19 7 5.00
jmcq 78:22 7 5.00
nick_weasel 76:24 7 5.00
Elementalism 80:20 1 5.00
1MaNArmY 70:30 1 5.00
user friendly 81:19 7 5.14
iamitman 80:20 7 5.14
Greg Kettell 77:23 7 5.14
DarkAdept 73:27 7 5.14
BritInVA 76:24 6 5.17
dildatonr 70:30 3 5.33
crimsona 79:21 5 5.40
Steve Schauer 81:19 7 5.43
swedcrip 78:22 7 5.43
carljanderson 79:21 6 5.50
iamian 81:19 2 5.50
MASrules 79:21 7 5.57
rlsmith 74:26 7 5.57
MrPorterhouse 80:20 7 5.71
Ktak 78:22 7 5.71
brianmonkey 70:30 7 5.71
spacejamz 77:23 7 5.86
JAC6 76:24 7 5.86
rcase13 80:20 7 6.00
galperi1 78:22 7 6.00
Jblacklow 71:29 6 6.00
yampan 69:31 2 6.00
Leviathan25 75:25 7 6.14
manikin 74:26 7 6.14
splinters 79:21 4 6.25
soremekun 79:21 7 6.29
Jallopy 70:30 7 6.29
klac 76:24 7 6.43
ifmracin 76:24 6 6.50
nyg 70:30 6 6.67
bplewis 76:24 7 6.71
Icemage 71:29 7 6.71
datobin1 82:18 7 6.86
MarekM 79:21 7 6.86
Aresca 82:18 7 7.00
mike179179 69:31 4 7.00
dstewart 85:15 7 7.14
gand41f 75:25 7 7.14
MRMOTA 78:22 6 7.33
Mel2 81:19 6 7.67
aaronwt 76:24 7 7.71
allargon 67:33 6 8.50
ts.enigma 49:51 6 10.00
PaulGo 90:10 3 12.33
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 7 13.14
Shmack 45:55 7 15.71
mpgxsvcd 58:42 1 17.00
Corellianrogue 20:80 1 55.00

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

Once again I am putting up a $10 gift certificate. Someone jokingly suggested donating a player as a prize and I am going to run with that idea. I will be accepting prize donations. If anyone has two copies of a movie and want to donate one or got a movie in a giveaway they just do not want, here is a way to get rid of them instead of trying to get a buck for them on eBay.

Spacejamz has also donated a copy of Spiderman 3 on Blu.

Still seems like there is a ton of excess inventory on HD DVD' and stores are discounting them very heavily. Plus Blu-ray's releases suck this week.

75:35

77:23

78:22

75:25

72:28

76:24

Still seems like there is a ton of excess inventory on HD DVD' and stores are discounting them very heavily. Plus Blu-ray's releases suck this week.

75:35

Does not compute....:o

78:22

79:21

Blu-ray 78:22 HDDVD

79:21

78:22

75:25

80:20

77:23

81:19

85:25

76:24

Let it ride. :)

86:14

Brandon

83:17

75:25

78:22

Blu-ray 78 HD-DVD 22.

73:27

72:28 A lot of $10 HD-DVD deals out there now.

80:20

80:20

58:42

This is the week HD-DVD rises from the DEAD!

70:30

Bounce, kitty, bounce!

80:20

Firesales are ending and remaining stocks and new releases seem to be drying up now for the red team.

78/22

75:25

--Darin

75:25

77:23

76:24

77:23

78/22

78:22

79:21

Put me down for 77:23

79:21

73:27

-Splints

81:19

75:25

77:23

73:27

82:18

76:24

74:26

78:22

74:26

69:31

74:26

Well, last week I picked HD DVD for the win. No dice. :)

I was going to be a lot less optimistic this week and put down 70:30 or 60:40. But that just wouldn't be much fun, so I'm going to call it even: 50:50. :D

See, now that's fun!

73:27

1. Sales still blazing on Amazon.
2. I am sensing that stores are not ordering many copies of new HD DVD releases, are pulling things off shelves.
3. "Into the Wild" is excellent and has a cult following but in general is not doing well. I suspect the "videogame demographic" will not buy it anyway. So it is only a slight factor.
4. Nothing in Blu-ray to speak of this week.

80:20

81:19

ok i will go 75 : 25

frys has a ton HD-DVD disks on two big tables right at the front entrance with 9.99 or 12.00 prices

they seemed to be selling there stock out, and just a week ago they expanded both HDM sides so HD-DVD had twice the shelf space it had before.

75:25

Why not?

75:25

80:20

76:24 Blu-Ray

69:31

If it happpens, I want to be there. :eek:

74:26

I think HD DVD stock is beginning to dry up at some retailers which didn't have as much invested.

On the new release front, Mr. Magorium should win this week, though being a Fox release with the typical outrageous Fox pricing will probably curtail some of its effect.

The dead cat should still be bouncing however.

78 : 22

82:18

78:22

83 : 17

90:10

76:24

An uptick for Blu to 79-21.

This brings another prediction period to a close. I will update with the guesses and stats shortly.

Nielsen contest entries for 03/14/2008

NAME BD:HD
frizshizzle 90:10
bplewis 86:14
dstewart 85:15
nyg 83:17
jmcq 83:17
allargon 82:18
Staying Salty 82:18
MASrules 81:19
Fran O'Hern 81:19
bato 81:19
Aresca 80:20
MrPorterhouse 80:20
Random Digital 80:20
Rich Peterson 80:20
HuntzHD 80:20
Jiffylush 80:20
klac 79:21
soremekun 79:21
spacejamz 79:21
Winn 79:21
SRR 79:21
Icemage 78:22
swedcrip 78:22
basano 78:22
merlintl 78:22
Richard Paul 78:22
UxiSXRD 78:22
Jackietreehorn 78:22
Will d s 78:22
dc_pilgrim 78:22
SGRSBSKIER 78:22
dad1153 78:22
FletchQ 78:22
elikhom 77:23
DarkAdept 77:23
eightninesuited 77:23
phansson 77:23
patrick99 77:23
hammie34 77:23
Leviathan25 76:24
manikin 76:24
galperi1 76:24
neillkrin 76:24
spazzcat 76:24
Kemet 76:24
gand41f 75:25
JAC6 75:25
brianmonkey 75:25
Greg Kettell 75:25
lomax 75:25
Neo1965 75:25
darinp2 75:25
online 75:25
theflux 75:25
EJ1 75:25
aaronwt 74:26
BritInVA 74:26
tomsteeper 74:26
Sketcha 74:26
splinters 73:27
rlsmith 73:27
dildatonr 73:27
petetheaxe 73:27
iamian 72:28
dpags 72:28
Jallopy 70:30
yampan 69:31
q3131a 69:31
mpgxsvcd 58:42
Shmack 50:50



Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81
4 136 14 91 (10) [26] 81 60 (21) [96] 77.58 79 78
5 110 0 96 (23) [109] 73 70 (3) [1] 85.32 85 85
6 88 1 92 (15) [62] 77 60 (17) [25] 79.30 80 80
7 88 9 91 (16) [53] 75 20 (55) [26] 75.02 76 78
8 70 90 50 76.59 77 78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i0e7d8449d58e7ec1264cfa9f02ca5b1c

"On the high-definition disc front, Sony's "30 Days of Night" remained the No. 1 Blu-ray Disc seller, while "Beowulf" was the top HD DVD seller."

Top-selling DVD was "101 Dalmations", #2 was "Mr. Magorium".

91:9

What would be good is if HMM or some other site would publish the DVD vs. Blu-ray ratios. At this point, that would be more interesting. 98.15 : 1.85 DVD would be my guess for next week's numbers.

What would be good is if HMM or some other site would publish the DVD vs. Blu-ray ratios. At this point, that would be more interesting. 98.15 : 1.85 DVD would be my guess for next week's numbers.

Remember that DVD currently has a much "longer tail" because of the very large number of titles available in the format.

A more favorable result to Blu-ray, and one that is more actively important to the industry, is to look at the numbers on key titles such as No Country and I am Legend. These numbers will be higher. $ are also interesting to the studios, which will skew a bit more toward Blu-ray due to higher unit pricing.

BD vs DVD would be a boring game at this stage because there won't be much fluctuation.

BD vs DVD would be a boring game at this stage because there won't be much fluctuation.

Exactly. When this wraps up in a few weeks, I'll look into predicintg the BD:DVD ratio for a few big titles and, eventually, the BD-DVD numbers when they get more interesting.

I doubt we will get the numbers for much longer. Once Best Buy drops HD DVD , there is little point in continuing publishing the numbers.

Remember that DVD currently has a much "longer tail" because of the very large number of titles available in the format.

A more favorable result to Blu-ray, and one that is more actively important to the industry, is to look at the numbers on key titles such as No Country and I am Legend. These numbers will be higher. $ are also interesting to the studios, which will skew a bit more toward Blu-ray due to higher unit pricing.

Yes, good point about the lopsided amount of total titles. So comparing totals would not be very meaningful. But, comparing the ratios sold of popular titles, like you suggest, would be very interesting, IMO. It will be interesting to to see which, if any, titles released this year can top WB's total sales of 300 (both BD and HD DVD) from last year, which I think is around 1/2 million. I still think a lot of people were buying instead of renting because of the format war (e.g., to support their team). 300 was in the middle of that. So comparison against that will be interesting for a lot of reasons.

I dont think blu-ray vs dvd would be all that helpful but getting actual volume figures (especially to learn if any new titles hit 6 figures) would be nice.

99:1...still watching SDDVD on my 19" Zenith in my double-wide trailer ...J6P 4 da WIN !!!!

Numbers are up!

65:35 Blu-Ray
YTD 75:25
SI: 66:34

Wow! I would have never expected those numbers! Wow!!
That's why this game is still fun. It's so hard to predict even with HD DVD being discontinued.
No correct guesses this week.

Numbers are up!

65:35 Blu-Ray
YTD 75:25
SI: 66:34

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: This guessing game just became fun again! :D

Obviously people are snapping the big HD-DVD titles ("Michael Clayton," "American Gangster," "Beowulf," "The Brave One," etc.) for the $20.90 at BB (30% off retail price), which explains why a 'dead' format can attract more than a 1/3 of all HDM sales almost TWO MONTHS since it was dealt the Warner Bros. death blow. Unbelievable!

Numbers are up!

65:35 Blu-Ray
YTD 75:25
SI: 66:34

Ouch, 10 off. That's gonna hurt my average :(

Those super sales had a nice effect.

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek: This guessing game just became fun again! :D

Obviously people are snapping the big HD-DVD titles ("Michael Clayton," "American Gangster," "Beowulf," "The Brave One," etc.) for the $20.90 at BB (30% off retail price), which explains why a 'dead' format can attract more than a 1/3 of all HDM sales almost TWO MONTHS since it was dealt the Warner Bros. death blow. Unbelievable!

Yep, I think prices make Beowulf sold better the second week than the first one (after release), so Beowulf is the number 1 HDM for the week. I guessed AG as the last HD top title. Congrats Beowulf for being the last HD DVD as top HDM for a week.

Ouch. After a perfect pick and a point off, I was on a roll. No more. . .

Originally Posted by galperi1
Numbers are up!

65:35 Blu-Ray
YTD 75:25
SI: 66:34

Maybe pricing is key after all. Just look at the ratio it provided HD DVD for dropping most of their titles below $10.

Heh so the this week the numbers look like they were all through 07. Except one format is dead. Hmmm makes you wonder if they both arent dead in the water right now ;)

Heh so the this week the numbers look like they were all through 07. Except one format is dead. Hmmm makes you wonder if they both arent dead in the water right now ;)

Zombies are scary, and right now HD DVD appears to be a Zombie format.:eek:

My bet is volume was very low, but blu sold LESS than 2:1?

Maybe pricing is key after all. Just look at the ratio it provided HD DVD for dropping most of their titles below $10.
Yeah, if either of the formats could sustain those prices, I'd have a lot more discs!

Zombies are scary, and right now HD DVD appears to be a Zombie format.:eek:

My bet is volume was very low, but blu sold LESS than 2:1?
It was probably my deepdiscount, HD DVD order that did it.

:)

Seriously though, I'm quite sure there are a lot of purple owners out there that are bargain shopping. I voted 74:26 (while many others went higher) based on this belief, but it appears to be even more rampant than I thought.

You Blu Ray fan boys that are getting your butt's kicked have to stop with the fake excuses.

Less than 10 dollar movies and all the firesales, are doing NOTHING for these numbers.

The fact that Beowulf was number one just totally baffles you doesn't it.

I mean it can't be had for less than $20.

And the fact that 3 HD DVDs were in the top 10, Beowulf, along with American Gangster and Into the Wild, also seemed to skip by you guys unnoticed.

The firesales are not effecting these numbers much, the new HD DVD releases are.

LOL, which is why, when the HD DVD exclusive new releases go away, the numbers will become 95:5 very very fast, regardless of the firesales.

Uhhhh...

65:35 is a butt kicking against blu?

Uhhhh...

65:35 is a butt kicking against blu?

65% vs a dead format. If there are 100 dollar bills on the ground and I am fighting a dead guy for them, I would hope to get more than 65.

^^^ Uhh, snap! :D

Uhhhh...

65:35 is a butt kicking against blu?

Of course, has been for over a year :D That's why Warner went with HD :eek:


Yeah, if either of the formats could sustain those prices, I'd have a lot more discs!

Most definitely. Fry's has been tempting me with some HD DVD's but I'm awaiting the fait of my A3 to see if I'll be getting it fixed/swapper for a better model or just store credit. If store credit then I'm going to sell all of my HD-DVD's, if not then I'll pick up some budget $9.99 titles that I want to watch.

This will certainly impact the contest standings. It will certainly have an impact for me.

There were firesales for HD-DVD and that impacted the Nielsen number. It is purely short term, of course, as Toshiba has surrendered and Universal and Paramount will be supporting Blu-Ray. I'm not sure why some are dancing on the decks of a sinking ship.

I don't mean the actual sales numbers.

I mean your getting your butt kicked in this competition.

If you blindly guess Blu Ray to win 90:10 every time, you are getting your butt kicked.

This will certainly impact the contest standings. It will certainly have an impact for me.

There were firesales for HD-DVD and that impacted the Nielsen number. It is purely short term, of course, as Toshiba has surrendered and Universal and Paramount will be supporting Blu-Ray. I'm not sure why some are dancing on the decks of a sinking ship.

One would almost think some people haven't heard the format war is over.

The fact that Beowulf was number one just totally baffles you doesn't it.


You mean the fact that Beowulf topped 30 Days of Night? "Baffle" is an understatement; I'm completely bewildered. Honestly how did Beowulf top 30 Days of Night?

You mean the fact that Beowulf topped 30 Days of Night? "Baffle" is an understatement; I'm completely bewildered. Honestly how did Beowulf top 30 Days of Night?

Better question . . . How did 30 Days of Night get on the list at all? It was a horrible movie.

This will certainly impact the contest standings. It will certainly have an impact for me.

There were firesales for HD-DVD and that impacted the Nielsen number. It is purely short term, of course, as Toshiba has surrendered and Universal and Paramount will be supporting Blu-Ray. I'm not sure why some are dancing on the decks of a sinking ship.

I don't think HD DVD people care one way or the other, afterall the format is dead. But it should be a bit concerning for the people on the BD group, thats not the type of PR they need at this time!

The 65:35 number is easily explained by the lackluster new releases of BD on 3/4. One not so compelling new release (Mr. Magorium) and two okay catalog titles (Ice Age, The Rookie) weren't ever gonna set sales records.

The numbers for the following week, inclusive of 3/11 releases, should easily swing the numbers back to 80:20.

6 new releases:

* Appleseed Ex Machina (Warner)
* August Rush (Warner)
* Dan in Real Life (Walt Disney)
* Hitman (Fox)
* No Country for Old Men (Walt Disney)
* Sleuth (2007) (Sony)

4 catalog films:

* Dogma (Sony)
* Gattaca (Sony)
* I, Robot (Fox)
* Independence Day (Fox)

While HD-DVD had... one catalog (Fletch) and two Warner delayed titles (In the Valley of Elah, Michael Clayton).

Then the following week (3/18 releases), look for Enchanted and I Am Legend to absolutely trounce Atonement and the Warner delayed Led Zeppelin: The song Remains the Same and Justice League: The New Frontier. Easily 90:10 that week.

I saw the firesale pricing of titles like "Beowulf" and "Into the Wild" on Amazon (these titles are already on firesale!) and also the fast-emptying racks at BB with their 30% off firesale, and I realized that this week would see a peek for HD DVD.

Even Lucky # Slevin is selling well at Frys for $9.95, they have two boxes full of them ready to unload.

But the racks will be empty soon enough.


The real message here for the future is the following: Blu-ray catalog titles will sell very well if the studios lower the price to levels people expect for catalog.

I don't think HD DVD people care one way or the other, afterall the format is dead. But it should be a bit concerning for the people on the BD group, thats not the type of PR they need at this time!

Not at all a concern. The format is being sold out at firesale pricing.

I remember being at a store 20 years ago that was selling out the RCA CED system and disks at low prices. The place was jammed with customers. They had amassed a huge number of disks, and people were buying them like crazy.

Then the CED format was gone forever.

Yesterday at my local BB, the HD DVD racks were being quickly emptied at 30% off. Titles that had been sitting there for months were gone.

These kinds of sales have to have an effect.

65:35? I'm starting to think HD DVD can pull this thing out after all. They just might win this war.

Brandon

You mean the fact that Beowulf topped 30 Days of Night? "Baffle" is an understatement; I'm completely bewildered. Honestly how did Beowulf top 30 Days of Night?

It is on sale. Beowulf jumped up on Amazon when they increased the sale on the title.

You can now find American Gangster, Beowulf, and Into the Wild--all new HD DVD titles--on sale.

Take a look at the detail of the HD DVD numbers. Top Gun is in the top 5 for last week. Why? It is on sale.

Not at all a concern. The format is being sold out at firesale pricing.

I remember being at a store 20 years ago that was selling out the RCA CED system and disks at low prices. The place was jammed with customers. They had amassed a huge number of disks, and people were buying them like crazy.

Then the CED format was gone forever.

Yesterday at my local BB, the HD DVD racks were being quickly emptied at 30% off. Titles that had been sitting there for months were gone.

These kinds of sales have to have an effect.

Just talking about public perception at this time, It could delay people from jumping into BD sooner or have them wait even longer than they had planned. It takes people a certain amount of time to forget things, and seeing those prices for HD DVD might linger for awhile and have an effect for the adoption of BD in the short term.

Well, they won't be seeing them on the shelves at that price (or any price for that matter) for much longer, so that won't affect anything.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6540698.html

You Blu Ray fan boys that are getting your butt's kicked have to stop with the fake excuses.

Less than 10 dollar movies and all the firesales, are doing NOTHING for these numbers.

The fact that Beowulf was number one just totally baffles you doesn't it.

I mean it can't be had for less than $20.

And the fact that 3 HD DVDs were in the top 10, Beowulf, along with American Gangster and Into the Wild, also seemed to skip by you guys unnoticed.

The firesales are not effecting these numbers much, the new HD DVD releases are.

LOL, which is why, when the HD DVD exclusive new releases go away, the numbers will become 95:5 very very fast, regardless of the firesales.

Hmm...box office hit Beowulf lost in it's debut week to an unknown 30 Days of Night when they were both $30 though...http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom030908/index.php. 30% off all HD-DVD (including new releases) comes up now at Best Buy and online sites, couldn't have anything to do with the switch this week. Nahhh.

Just talking about public perception at this time, It could delay people from jumping into BD sooner or have them wait even longer than they had planned. It takes people a certain amount of time to forget things, and seeing those prices for HD DVD might linger for awhile and have an effect for the adoption of BD in the short term.

I think there are other issues that Blu-ray has to contend with that are much more important. Player availability is scarce for many models, and the prices have moved away from their Christmas sale price points (which always happens at this time of the year BTW).

I suspect that we will have a lot of models coming out in the May/June timeframe for Father's Day, and older models will be price-reduced, but until May it will be a bit sparse.

Hey if HD-DVD's new releases were always $20 from a year ago, they could have been on to something. $10 more for 30 Days of Night, I'm not surprised it didn't do as well.

Well, they won't be seeing them on the shelves at that price (or any price for that matter) for much longer, so that won't affect anything.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6540698.html



Hmm...box office hit Beowulf lost in it's debut week to an unknown 30 Days of Night when they were both $30 though...http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom030908/index.php. 30% off all HD-DVD (including new releases) comes up now at Best Buy and online sites, couldn't have anything to do with the switch this week. Nahhh.

Having 3 top sellers of a dead format in the top 10 is an embarrassment for both sides IMHO. Show me another case in history a dead format has ever accomplished such a feat regardless of the circumstances that helped it achieve that status?

If anything, it's an embarrassment for the three new BD titles that got released, nothing more.

It's worth noting the actual amount of money netted for the Blu camp is much higher, since we're dealing with per unit sales instead of profit.

It's worth noting the actual amount of money netted for the Blu camp is much higher, since we're dealing with per unit sales instead of profit.

Your still dealing with a dead format, so how impressive is that?

When I look at the guesses for this week and then the actual numbers, I would say EVERYONE was suprised....or even better shocked.

According to what people were saying up until a few hours ago, BD under-performed.

This is a predictable death spasm, no more and no less. It's like kicking a field goal in the last seconds to avoid a shutout. The score is 56-3 rather tha 56-0, but the outcome was never in doubt.

Ask yourself what the numbers will be in six weeks....

This just in, BD was endorsed (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2b1D5w82yU) by Senator Hillary Clinton on 3/10/08. I'm pretty sure that was responsible for the underperformance this week.

Brandon

This is a predictable death spasm, no more and no less. It's like kicking a field goal in the last seconds to avoid a shutout. The score is 56-3 rather tha 56-0, but the outcome was never in doubt.

Ask yourself what the numbers will be in six weeks....

I'll give it a shot!

SD DVD 98%
BD 2%

No sense in adding the dead format in , because it will be even more dead by then and thats what this thread should based on if it is to continue.

Some still think even 65:35 is close and that was the misperception all of last year when sales ratios were close to this. If you know ratios/percentages, then you know even if it got down to 55:45 there is a huge gap and the reality is it is not even close.

My hollywood is selling HD DVD for 10.00 and the manager asked me if I was interested she could work a deal on top of that if I bought multiples.

She forgot I only own BD.

I would say Volume affected the numbers more than new HDDVD releases.
PE is probably selling pretty constant and this week it was over 50% of the top title when the previous weeks its been less than 25%.

Blu-ray supporters, look on the bright side. Maybe the BDA will sponser another BOGO to get those numbers back up.

This is ironic. HD-DVD had to die to increase sales.

Blu-ray supporters, look on the bright side. Maybe the BDA will sponser another BOGO to get those numbers back up.

The "bright side" (if you want to put it that way) is that there is a limited time for these sales and when they are finished, that is the end.

^ But, it does go to show just how important sales really are to total sales. One has to wonder what the sales ratios would have been last year without all of those blu-ray BOGO's. Not that it really matters at this point, but it is an interesting and amusing side note as HD DVD is about to fade away.

^ But, it does go to show just how important sales really are to total sales. One has to wonder what the sales ratios would have been last year without all of those blu-ray BOGO's. Not that it really matters at this point, but it is an interesting and amusing side note as HD DVD is about to fade away.

Maybe if HD DVD had all these sales in last year, then things would have been real interesting. I'm a sucker for a good deal for sure :D

Nielsen contest results for 03/14/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 65:35

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
dpags 72:28 6 3.50
q3131a 69:31 1 4.00
petetheaxe 73:27 3 4.33
online 75:25 8 4.50
Sketcha 74:26 8 4.50
theflux 75:25 8 4.50
Kemet 76:24 7 4.86
SGRSBSKIER 78:22 8 4.88
darinp2 75:25 8 5.00
patrick99 77:23 7 5.00
dc_pilgrim 78:22 8 5.13
tomsteeper 74:26 8 5.13
Jiffylush 80:20 8 5.25
neillkrin 76:24 8 5.25
Neo1965 75:25 8 5.25
phansson 77:23 8 5.25
yampan 69:31 3 5.33
bato 81:19 8 5.38
lomax 75:25 8 5.50
Winn 79:21 8 5.50
EJ1 75:25 2 5.50
Jackietreehorn 78:22 7 5.57
spazzcat 76:24 5 5.60
eightninesuited 77:23 8 5.63
Richard Paul 78:22 8 5.63
UxiSXRD 78:22 8 5.63
BritInVA 74:26 7 5.71
Greg Kettell 75:25 8 5.75
HuntzHD 80:20 8 5.88
rlsmith 73:27 8 5.88
basano 78:22 8 6.00
DarkAdept 77:23 8 6.00
merlintl 78:22 8 6.00
Rich Peterson 80:20 8 6.00
Staying Salty 82:18 7 6.00
Will d s 78:22 5 6.00
dildatonr 73:27 4 6.00
iamian 72:28 3 6.00
hammie34 77:23 2 6.00
Jallopy 70:30 8 6.13
Random Digital 80:20 8 6.13
Fran O'Hern 81:19 7 6.14
brianmonkey 75:25 8 6.25
dad1153 78:22 3 6.33
JAC6 75:25 8 6.38
swedcrip 78:22 8 6.38
splinters 73:27 5 6.60
galperi1 76:24 8 6.63
jmcq 83:17 8 6.63
Leviathan25 76:24 8 6.75
manikin 76:24 8 6.75
MASrules 81:19 8 6.88
MrPorterhouse 80:20 8 6.88
spacejamz 79:21 8 6.88
elikhom 77:23 7 7.00
soremekun 79:21 8 7.25
klac 79:21 8 7.38
gand41f 75:25 8 7.50
Icemage 78:22 8 7.50
SRR 79:21 2 7.50
aaronwt 74:26 8 7.88
Aresca 80:20 8 8.00
nyg 83:17 7 8.29
bplewis 86:14 8 8.50
dstewart 85:15 8 8.75
allargon 82:18 7 9.71
frizshizzle 90:10 7 10.14
mpgxsvcd 58:42 2 12.00
FletchQ 78:22 1 13.00
Shmack 50:50 8 15.63



No perfect picks this week. New thread with an abbreviated first post shortly.

Your still dealing with a dead format, so how impressive is that?

I said nothing about impressive, only the money that's netted being a larger disparity than the percentages of units.

I said nothing about impressive, only the money that's netted being a larger disparity than the percentages of units.

Public perception don't care about those things, they just look at the numbers!

65% vs a dead format. If there are 100 dollar bills on the ground and I am fighting a dead guy for them, I would hope to get more than 65.
I gotta' say, that WAS pretty funny.

:D

I don't mean the actual sales numbers.

I mean your getting your butt kicked in this competition.

If you blindly guess Blu Ray to win 90:10 every time, you are getting your butt kicked.
I see. Well fortunately for me, I don't fall into that category. I'm doing pretty well, though my 74 guess this week was still, clearly too high.

I don't see you in the rankings. Why is that? Are you more of a sideline, spectator, armchair quarterback type? Just curious. :)

Public perception don't care about those things, they just look at the numbers!

True enough.

Blu-ray supporters, look on the bright side. Maybe the BDA will sponser another BOGO to get those numbers back up.

Heh. And a little later in the day I received an email from Amazon advising of a 50% off sale on some Blu-ray discs. Coincidence? Well, could be, I suppose. Or not.

Too bad there was none there I didn't either already own or not want.

Your still dealing with a dead format, so how impressive is that?HD DVD will be dead, but it sure isn't dead in the way that a person dies (can't move or accomplish anything). I misjudged this week since I guessed 75:25, so HD DVD did better than I expected. However, as far as Blu-ray having anything to worry about as far as this goes, I don't think so. There is a reason there are laws in this country (at least in some places) about advertising that your store is going out of business. The reason is that it works (people are more likely to buy) and if it isn't true then it deceives people and isn't right. But if it is true, then sales generally pick up real fast. Much like they seem to have done here. Just check out any store that really is going out of business and marks all prices down 30%, then 40%, then 50%, ... Things start to move that haven't. But it isn't sustainable.

I don't see this hurting public perception. HD DVD product getting closed out and actually selling shouldn't surprise a lot of people. Closeout items often outsell non-closeout items, until the closeout items are gone. I don't know if Beta tapes were put on closeout right after Sony announced that they were dropping Beta, but it wouldn't surprise me if their tape sales increased for a little while if they did have closeouts on them shortly after that. Whether they got close to VHS tape sales for a few weeks or even outsold them due to closeout pricing would have been pretty much irrelevant as far as the longer term prospects, as people knew that VHS had won that war.

--Darin

It is on sale. Beowulf jumped up on Amazon when they increased the sale on the title.

You can now find American Gangster, Beowulf, and Into the Wild--all new HD DVD titles--on sale.

Take a look at the detail of the HD DVD numbers. Top Gun is in the top 5 for last week. Why? It is on sale.

I probably should have put one of those sarcastic faces after my post. I think it's funny so many people are making such a big deal out of this. Beowulf was a pretty greatly hyped flick when it came to theaters; 30 Days of Night... not so much.

On top of that, the clear out pricing on nearly all HD DVDs is playing a huge part. Again, it's comical that people are making any noise about this week's numbers.

Honestly, it's pathetic to boast, "Oh look people who own HD DVD players are buying up movies like crazy now that they are dirt cheap!" No s*** Sherlock. If those HD DVD owners weren't buying movies now, when the hell would they? When stores start paying the consumer to take the movies off the shelf?

Blu-ray supporters, look on the bright side. Maybe the BDA will sponser another BOGO to get those numbers back up.

It seems like some people are relishing this a bit too much.

I didn't even realize that Over California on Blu-ray made it into the top 10 (with 40% of what Beowulf sold). I don't remember even seeing it in stores in Washington and it is #14,060 on Amazon despite being $14. I wonder how many of the sales last week were in California.

As far as prices go, I Am Legend on Blu-ray is now $18.95 on Amazon (and it is up to #2). I wasn't planning on buying it, but probably will order it now.

--Darin

This is ironic. HD-DVD had to die to increase sales.

So it works for unpopular people (increase popularity/likeability) and movie formats.

Brandon

I find it a bit ironic how the die-hard Blu supporters are saying " the only reason HD DVD did as well as it did for the week was because of the fire sales". :o

It seems like some people are relishing this a bit too much.

It's almost as though they haven't heard the format war really is over. . .

I find it a bit ironic how the die-hard Blu supporters are saying " the only reason HD DVD did as well as it did for the week was because of the fire sales". :o
It worked the same for hardware. When people knew that time was running out, they seemed to buy up what they could. And software? I did. I picked up a dozen HD DVDs from deep discount a few weeks back.

I find it funny that SOME HD DVD supporters still believe that price was and is king. Clearly this was Toshiba's folly.

However, I will say this. Many of us blu fans espoused software as the real king. Perhaps if Toshiba could have convinced studios to take the same types of losses on their software as Toshiba did on hardware, we would be looking at a different world today. ;)

It worked the same for hardware. When people knew that time was running out, they seemed to buy up what they could. And software? I did. I picked up a dozen HD DVDs from deep discount a few weeks back.

I find it funny that SOME HD DVD supporters still believe that price was and is king. Clearly this was Toshiba's folly.

However, I will say this. Many of us blu fans espoused software as the real king. Perhaps if Toshiba could have convinced studios to take the same types of losses on their software as Toshiba did on hardware, we would be looking at a different world today. ;)

Exactly. I would never have invested in Blu-ray if Toshiba's first players cost less than $100 and the movies were $10-15 across the board from the get go. At these prices, the format is a steal if you're already invested. Unfortunately for Toshiba, this war wasn't all about price like they wanted to think it was.

I find it a bit ironic how the die-hard Blu supporters are saying " the only reason HD DVD did as well as it did for the week was because of the fire sales". :o
I find it a bit ironic you're finding it ironic. :D

well i moved up in the rankings even though i was off by 10 !

there is a big problem coming that no one is talking about much yet.

that is the huge drop in the dollar against the Yen, we should be seeing price increases for all players that are produced in Japan or by Japanese companies that keep there books in Yen. the normal trend is for a slow drop in price but if you take in the currency change they are selling for a lot less just to keep the same USA price.

i am not sure how long they can keep it up, we could be seeing prices go up for lots of HD products.

well i moved up in the rankings even though i was off by 10 !

there is a big problem coming that no one is talking about much yet.

that is the huge drop in the dollar against the Yen, we should be seeing price increases for all players that are produced in Japan or by Japanese companies that keep there books in Yen. the normal trend is for a slow drop in price but if you take in the currency change they are selling for a lot less just to keep the same USA price.

i am not sure how long they can keep it up, we could be seeing prices go up for lots of HD products.
Yep.

It sucks.

Of course some hold-outs will see things differently, but if that helps 'em sleep at night...

It just means that 35% of people this week who bought HD discs, would rather buy ones of a format that they know is DEAD rather than Blu-ray.

That's all it means.

btw, I went to CC, BB, WM and Target and was shocked to find that NONE ever carried In to the Wild. That is a movie screaming to be watched in HD and I finally had to order it off the Internet (along with Enchanted for the kids:D).

It just means that 35% of people this week who bought HD discs, would rather buy ones of a format that they know is DEAD rather than Blu-ray.
Do you really believe that all 35% KNOW that HD DVD is dead?

It just means that 35% of people this week who bought HD discs, would rather buy ones of a format that they know is DEAD rather than Blu-ray.This reminds me of the time you predicted 66:34 and then when Blu-ray did better than that (68:32) you claimed that Blu-ray didn't dominate as much as it should have that week. People can see that here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11887195#post11887195

and I don't recall you ever explaining why you guessed one ratio and then spun it as if Blu-ray had underperformed when they beat your prediction. I was glad you made those original posts though because they told me a lot about how much you would be willing to spin things (and so how much stock I should put in the things you said after that).
btw, I went to CC, BB, WM and Target and was shocked to find that NONE ever carried In to the Wild. That is a movie screaming to be watched in HD and I finally had to order it off the Internet (along with Enchanted for the kids:D).I was surprised with how many copies the Best Buy in Bellevue, WA had of Into the Wild on HD DVD just after it came out. It was 3 stacks in the main HD DVD area and I believe it was a little more than 30. When I checked a few days ago they probably had about 20 there.

--Darin

This reminds me of the time you predicted 66:34 and then when Blu-ray did better than that (68:32) you claimed that Blu-ray didn't dominate as much as it should have that week. People can see that here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11887195#post11887195

and I don't recall you ever explaining why you guessed one ratio and then spun it as if Blu-ray had underperformed when they beat your prediction. I was glad you made those original posts though because they told me a lot about how much you would be willing to spin things (and so how much stock I should put in the things you said after that).
I was surprised with how many copies the Best Buy in Bellevue, WA had of Into the Wild on HD DVD just after it came out. It was 3 stacks in the main HD DVD area and I believe it was a little more than 30. When I checked a few days ago they probably had about 20 there.

--Darin
A great Homer Simpson quote comes to mind,

"Well of course, everything looks bad if you remember it."

Gotta' love the ol' post history!

Too funny


I also love theflux-s reply to that post you quoted,

"I'm sure its related to the arbitrary "should have done" scale. The scale where no matter what Blu-ray does, it "should have done" better even if a person somehow can still somewhat accurately guess what it will *really* do."

Good stuff


LONG LIVE HD DVD!!!

:)

It just means that 35% of people this week who bought HD discs, would rather buy ones of a format that they know is DEAD rather than Blu-ray.


Actually it doesn't mean that at all, unless you want to provide hard evidence that each individual disk sale recorded was to one unique person, and that means the same person can't buy two different movies either.

A great Homer Simpson quote comes to mind,

"Well of course, everything looks bad if you remember it."

Gotta' love the ol' post history!

Too funny


I also love theflux-s reply to that post you quoted,

"I'm sure its related to the arbitrary "should have done" scale. The scale where no matter what Blu-ray does, it "should have done" better even if a person somehow can still somewhat accurately guess what it will *really* do."

Good stuff


LONG LIVE HD DVD!!!

:)

Ah yeah, I remember that thread. Good times. It was one of those threads where you get to see if someone has something worth saying, or if they are just an agenda-bot.

This reminds me of the time you predicted 66:34 and then when Blu-ray did better than that (68:32) you claimed that Blu-ray didn't dominate as much as it should have that week. People can see that here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=11887195#post11887195

and I don't recall you ever explaining why you guessed one ratio and then spun it as if Blu-ray had underperformed when they beat your prediction. I was glad you made those original posts though because they told me a lot about how much you would be willing to spin things (and so how much stock I should put in the things you said after that).
I was surprised with how many copies the Best Buy in Bellevue, WA had of Into the Wild on HD DVD just after it came out. It was 3 stacks in the main HD DVD area and I believe it was a little more than 30. When I checked a few days ago they probably had about 20 there.

--Darin

LOL! , one of many many classics :D

Heh. And a little later in the day I received an email from Amazon advising of a 50% off sale on some Blu-ray discs. Coincidence? Well, could be, I suppose. Or not.This is the first time I've dropped in this thread [series] for several weeks, and I expected the ratio to be 90-10, not 65-35. Maybe I'm not alone in deciding that the time to buy (or even rent) Blu-ray has come and gone? (I'm not about to invest $350-450 on additional hardware just to satisfy Hollywood's copy protection paranonia.)

Maybe I'm not alone in deciding that the time to buy (or even rent) Blu-ray has come and gone?

Yes I think you're absolutely right. The time to buy or rent Blu-ray has come and gone.

Brandon

(I'm not about to invest $350-450 on additional hardware just to satisfy Hollywood's copy protection paranonia.)

Good thing that digital downloads have no copy protection then! They're the future you know.

Good thing that digital downloads have no copy protection then! They're the future you know.
No doubt about it!

'Course he would still have to spend 3 or 400 dollars on hardware.

I guess there's NO future.

;)

No doubt about it!

'Course he would still have to spend 3 or 400 dollars on hardware.

I guess there's NO future.

;)

OH SNAP!