I'm fully supporting Blu-ray now because its the only and best path to 1080p24 PQ and lossless AQ for HD home theater fans. :D

I have never seen much PQ or AQ difference between the two formats, I thought both could get the job done. But I thought HD DVD could do so at cheaper cost to consumers, in a more consumer friendly manner, with more niche content and in a faster time frame.

A lot of my fears about what would happen if Blu-ray won, besides being overcome by events, are being mitigated now that its the only game in town.

I thought the content available to HD DVD would increase if it won, and if Blu-ray had won there was a chance that only new day and date titles and movies catering to the PS3 gamer crowd would be on Blu-ray, and that most movies would never find there way to HD and would stay on DVD forever.

I feared that if Blu-ray won, niche long tail content would never get to be published on Blu-ray.

I feel much much better about that now.

Among the reasons I supported HD DVD was that I thought it did the same things at lower cost and had the quicker path to mass adoption.

But with the unexpectedly fast Toshiba decision to kill off HD DVD, that has changed things. The complete end of the war in Feb 2008 was more decisive and quicker than I expected and has already lead to some major investment decisions for Blu-ray that will show up in the fall. Thats a gift to consumers.

The significant HD DVD advantages I saw, are now being mitigated by events and those Blu-ray consumers who bought 1.0 players are going to be the only ones getting screwed , but most of them don't really care because they bought their movies in the right colored cases.

I had three major fears about Blu-ray and saw three major HD DVD advantages.

1st: Replication capacity and costs leading to less non high profile content

I had a fear that BD costs and replication constraints would lead to only day and date releases coming out in good PQ and AQ, and that library and catalog titles would suffer or not be released. Also BD would cost so much that niche titles would not afford to be released. CINRAM and Sony DADC's decision to add dozens of BD50 lines and gains in yields have made me feel better about this as has the pure numbers of BD titles available.

2nd: HD DVD had a consistent profile from day one.

Blu-ray was rushed to market with 1.0 players and is now just getting 2.0 players on the market and will have a mix of Bonus View and BD-Live players being sold this fall at higher prices than HD DVD players. The PS3 is the fastest BD-J player out there.

The specific fear was content providers would not use advanced BD-J interactivity for fear of backlash from profile 1.0 owners or people that have slow performance on BD-J titles that do not own PS3s. But it seems studios are just forging ahead, and expecting people to upgrade their hardware to keep up.

3rd: Blu-ray hardware complexity and costs. HD DVD optics were cheaper in BOM , but now with competition and greater volumes and with manufacturers committing now to Blu-ray after end of the format war, prices will fall and performance will increase . Last two years CE manufacturers were only dabbling in Blu-ray production and were content to let Sony take all the risk. this year more than a dozen new Blu-ray hardware designs will be introduced and people will finally have options to a PS3 for acceptable Blu-ray playback.

That and the quick end of the format war will get BD player prices to near mainstream adoption points this fall and certainly by next year.

Other factors like Blu-ray being less of a consumer friendly branding element than the self explanatory HD DVD name, are being or have been addressed by the pure weight of the Sony Disney and BDA marketing and advertising campaigns.

The only thing HD DVD could do that Blu-ray currently can't do is combo discs

Which was an advantage HD DVD squandered because of higher consumer costs (combos cost more), no release beside TOS Star Trek was combo only, and with playability issues.

Even though those were mostly resolved the never were much of a facto in the format war.

Maybe BD combos will come in time, but not for a while, they just won't be a factor in moving people away from DVD as combos could have been for HD DVD.

It clearly appears to me that the studios , manufacturers and retailers are going to commit enough resources to insure Blu-ray reaches adoption as quick as possible.

I thought HD DVD was the quicker path, but with the end of the format war, I see things now moving fast for consumer adoption of Blu-ray.

By the fall, I see a lot of resources falling in place and things moving faster than what anyone expected.

I've always been a HD and home theater fan through all this. I saw little PQ and AQ quality between the two formats, but I wanted one to become mainstream as soon as possible.

I'm glad Blu-ray has won as soon as it did so that this fall can be significant in Blu-ray sales to the masses.

In short, all the HD DVD advantages I saw are now being addressed by Blu-ray.

Even Bill Hunt is calling for a consistent Blu-ray BD-Live profile 2.0 standard for new BD players and for a $250 BD player by the end of the year.

Blu-ray has resource advantages and support advantages that HD DVD never had, but HD DVD did a lot with far less and gave a great consumer experience than its fans loved. I hope Blu-ray companies learn from what HD DVD did well.

I hope, as many people, as soon as possible, will also see what Blu-ray can also do as well or better .

Kosty

Did you see region free playback as a HD-DVD advantage? (I did but I don't see that coming to Blu-ray any time soon).

PS: I think combos were a disadvantage, I never wanted to play the SD-DVD side of a combo disc in an SD-DVD player so it just made it more confusing to know which side to put in.

I'm fully supporting Blu-ray now because its the only and best path to 1080p24 PQ and lossless AQ for HD home theater fans.........
:rolleyes:

I'm still waiting for a Profile 1.1 Player (+ ethernet port upgradable to BD-Live) with Bitstream output for $299. Since there isn't such a thing out there yet and I don't feel like wasting any more money due to hasty and premature purchasing, I won't be adopting Blu-Ray anytime soon.

....and I'm an audio/videophile, so If I'm not buying... I wonder where that leaves J6P?

Kosty, wake me up when prices come into normality. Unfortunately I haven't bought a Blu-ray in a couple months.

I'm fully supporting Blu-ray now because its the only and best path to 1080p24 PQ and lossless AQ for HD home theater fans. :D

I have never seen much PQ or AQ difference between the two formats, I thought both could get the job done. But I thought HD DVD could do so at cheaper cost to consumers, in a more consumer friendly manner, with more niche content and in a faster time frame.

A lot of my fears about what would happen if Blu-ray won, besides being overcome by events, are being mitigated now that its the only game in town.

I thought the content available to HD DVD would increase if it won, and if Blu-ray had won there was a chance that only new day and date titles and movies catering to the PS3 gamer crowd would be on Blu-ray, and that most movies would never find there way to HD and would stay on DVD forever.

I feared that if Blu-ray won, niche long tail content would never get to be published on Blu-ray.

I feel much much better about that now.

Among the reasons I supported HD DVD was that I thought it did the same things at lower cost and had the quicker path to mass adoption.

But with the unexpectedly fast Toshiba decision to kill off HD DVD, that has changed things. The complete end of the war in Feb 2008 was more decisive and quicker than I expected and has already lead to some major investment decisions for Blu-ray that will show up in the fall. Thats a gift to consumers.

The significant HD DVD advantages I saw, are now being mitigated by events and those Blu-ray consumers who bought 1.0 players are going to be the only ones getting screwed , but most of them don't really care because they bought their movies in the right colored cases.

I had three major fears about Blu-ray and saw three major HD DVD advantages.

1st: Replication capacity and costs leading to less non high profile content

I had a fear that BD costs and replication constraints would lead to only day and date releases coming out in good PQ and AQ, and that library and catalog titles would suffer or not be released. Also BD would cost so much that niche titles would not afford to be released. CINRAM and Sony DADC's decision to add dozens of BD50 lines and gains in yields have made me feel better about this as has the pure numbers of BD titles available.

2nd: HD DVD had a consistent profile from day one.

Blu-ray was rushed to market with 1.0 players and is now just getting 2.0 players on the market and will have a mix of Bonus View and BD-Live players being sold this fall at higher prices than HD DVD players. The PS3 is the fastest BD-J player out there.

The specific fear was content providers would not use advanced BD-J interactivity for fear of backlash from profile 1.0 owners or people that have slow performance on BD-J titles that do not own PS3s. But it seems studios are just forging ahead, and expecting people to upgrade their hardware to keep up.

3rd: Blu-ray hardware complexity and costs. HD DVD optics were cheaper in BOM , but now with competition and greater volumes and with manufacturers committing now to Blu-ray after end of the format war, prices will fall and performance will increase . Last two years CE manufacturers were only dabbling in Blu-ray production and were content to let Sony take all the risk. this year more than a dozen new Blu-ray hardware designs will be introduced and people will finally have options to a PS3 for acceptable Blu-ray playback.

That and the quick end of the format war will get BD player prices to near mainstream adoption points this fall and certainly by next year.

Other factors like Blu-ray being less of a consumer friendly branding element than the self explanatory HD DVD name, are being or have been addressed by the pure weight of the Sony Disney and BDA marketing and advertising campaigns.

The only thing HD DVD could do that Blu-ray currently can't do is combo discs

Which was an advantage HD DVD squandered because of higher consumer costs (combos cost more), no release beside TOS Star Trek was combo only, and with playability issues.

Even though those were mostly resolved the never were much of a facto in the format war.

Maybe BD combos will come in time, but not for a while, they just won't be a factor in moving people away from DVD as combos could have been for HD DVD.

It clearly appears to me that the studios , manufacturers and retailers are going to commit enough resources to insure Blu-ray reaches adoption as quick as possible.

I thought HD DVD was the quicker path, but with the end of the format war, I see things now moving fast for consumer adoption of Blu-ray.

By the fall, I see a lot of resources falling in place and things moving faster than what anyone expected.

I've always been a HD and home theater fan through all this. I saw little PQ and AQ quality between the two formats, but I wanted one to become mainstream as soon as possible.

I'm glad Blu-ray has won as soon as it did so that this fall can be significant in Blu-ray sales to the masses.

In short, all the HD DVD advantages I saw are now being addressed by Blu-ray.

Even Bill Hunt is calling for a consistent Blu-ray BD-Live profile 2.0 standard for new BD players and for a $250 BD player by the end of the year.

Blu-ray has resource advantages and support advantages that HD DVD never had, but HD DVD did a lot with far less and gave a great consumer experience than its fans loved. I hope Blu-ray companies learn from what HD DVD did well.

I hope, as many people, as soon as possible, will also see what Blu-ray can also do as well or better .

Kosty

Gee - I just saw this very same blu-ray advertisement in a different forum as well . . . :cool:

I'm still waiting for a Profile 1.1 Player (+ ethernet port upgradable to BD-Live) with Bitstream output for $299. Since there isn't such a thing out there yet and I don't feel like wasting any more money due to hasty and premature purchasing, I won't be adopting Blu-Ray anytime soon.

....and I'm an audio/videophile, so If I'm not buying... I wonder where that leaves J6P?

It will leave him just fine, seeing as the average person doesn't buy into this kind of tech at this stage. Years down the line when they do, it won't be an issue.

For me it is very hard to stop buying very, very cheap HD DVD firesale discs! My money will be spent entirely on HD DVD in the next few months. But I hope I could afford, after all the firesales, and atleast before this year ends, a BD-player with all profiles and a affordable price!

Gee - I just saw this very same blu-ray advertisement in a different forum as well . . . :cool:

Aside from superior specs, studio support,CE support userbase and players blu-ray has has better marketing as well :D

I agree with your analysis. I always thought that all we needed was to get everyone on board to a single format, and then the problems of whichever format would be resolved.


1. REPLICATION ISSUES: I never thought this would be a problem for long. I remember 30 years ago when MCA DiscoVision was trying to make a go of LaserDisc with their Culver City pressing plant. What a disaster! People would try a dozen disks before they found one that would play. Then, Pioneer bought the business, cleaned it up, and proved that optical formats could work economically. Had this not happened, we might never have seen the CD, since there was real skepticism about optical pressing in the late 70's.

2. HARDWARE EXPENSE: Repeatedly, we have seen seemingly insoluable economic problems solved by throwing silicon at them and then mass-producing it until it is cheap. The compute power on my desktop here at Stanford is practically more than what the whole school had when I was a grad student. I just couldn't believe that the difference between HD DVD and Blu-ray was going to make much of a price difference to the customer after things got rolling. Totally swamped out.

3. VARIOUS ARGUMENTS: It no longer appears that the various arguments we all had (on both sides) mattered as much as getting the format war resolved and getting everyone together. I always thought that the extra bandwidth and capacity of Blu-ray were small but clear advantages, but it is now seems that these would have been mitigated by HD DVD had it in fact won.

kosty did you rewrite your post from this...

Bobby McFerrin -

Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don't worry be happy
In every life we have some trouble
When you worry you make it double
Don't worry, be happy......

Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Look at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don't worry, be happy
Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
Ain't got not girl to make you smile
But don't worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don't worry, be happy (now).....

There is this little song I wrote
I hope you learn it note for note
Like good little children
Don't worry, be happy
Listen to what I say
In your life expect some trouble
But when you worry
You make it double
Don't worry, be happy......
Don't worry don't do it, be happy
Put a smile on your face
Don't bring everybody down like this
Don't worry, it will soon past
Whatever it is
Don't worry, be happy

Sorry Kosty - I played my hand, and lost. Too burnt out on next gen optical to jump back in and buy a BD 1.0 or 1.1 player, and don't want another game console. Maybe if prices come down, 2.0 players come out, and I'm bored I'll pick up a new toy next year (or not).

I'm getting into learning about the download thing lately. I think that has lots of potential going forward, and might be here sooner than many think. I'd hate to invest $1000s in yet another round of physical media only to find out that the Netflix/LG (e.g.) set top box rental/purchase service is the "next big thing". :)

I do think that there is value in CONSTRUCTIVE criticism of Blu-ray to make it overall better. There are still a lot of issues (many of which were issues with HD DVD as well) that need to be addressed. If we can get some of this discussion going in the near future, I think it can help.

The early adopter/enthusiast community still has a role to play here. We need to get back together and start lobbying etc. for improvements.

I thought the content available to HD DVD would increase if it won, and if Blu-ray had won there was a chance that only new day and date titles and movies catering to the PS3 gamer crowd would be on Blu-ray, and that most movies would never find there way to HD and would stay on DVD forever.
I never understood why people thought that. I guess it's the same mentality that makes people say the PS3 is "just a game machine with Blu-ray in it."

Anyway, glad your worries are gone.

....and I'm an audio/videophile, so If I'm not buying... I wonder where that leaves J6P?
Another thing I don't understand. Why do people think "J6P" is a group of people with a common hive mind? If "J6P" were all so like-minded they'd all have the same kind of car, same brand and type of TV, same political views etc.

Did you see region free playback as a HD-DVD advantage? (I did but I don't see that coming to Blu-ray any time soon). In theory yes, but it meant little in practice.

Not a lot worth importing and the cost and hassle were obstacles.

Many Blu-ray discs were in practice region free, and most Blu-ray titles that are region locked were newer day and date titles that would be available in all regions or at least North America anyway soon enough.

Potential advantage for HD DVD , that did not amount to much in the real world, and as its working out is not being abused by the Blu-ray studios.

PS: I think combos were a disadvantage, I never wanted to play the SD-DVD side of a combo disc in an SD-DVD player so it just made it more confusing to know which side to put in Last few released had a bigger red or blue colored middle around the center hole, which made it easier to see the red (HD DVD) or Blue (DVD) side.

I never understood why people thought that. I guess it's the same mentality that makes people say the PS3 is "just a game machine with Blu-ray in it."

Anyway, glad your worries are gone.

Well there were plenty from the red side who thought the PS3 wouldn't have an impact and gamers wouldn't buy into HDM. PS3 is a win win situation for many of us that love gaming and movies. Top notch gaming and fantastic blu-ray movies all in one of the best values in home theater :D

Another thing I don't understand. Why do people think "J6P" is a group of people with a common hive mind? If "J6P" were all so like-minded they'd all have the same kind of car, same brand and type of TV, same political views etc.

Maybe they felt that way in the HD DVD crowd? :eek:

Gee - I just saw this very same blu-ray advertisement in a different forum as well . . . :cool:
Well not everybody reads that forum. ;)

Thought it worthwhile to post it here as well, and get AVS thoughts as well. :)

Fears I had about Blu-ray and how that has now changed since it won the format war. ...
Aside from superior specs, studio support,CE support userbase and players blu-ray has has better marketing as well :D
Those were never fears that I had about Blu-ray. :p

:D:D:D

Much of this was predictable, as companies were going to support the winning HD format no matter which one it was -- provided there was just one -- as there's just to much money at stake not to do so. Prices will come down and selection will improve and I imagine we'll see great strides by Holiday 2008. It's good to see people beginning to see the light, even if there are others people who who carp about profiles and prices in every thread.

Did you see region free playback as a HD-DVD advantage? (I did but I don't see that coming to Blu-ray any time soon).

PS: I think combos were a disadvantage, I never wanted to play the SD-DVD side of a combo disc in an SD-DVD player so it just made it more confusing to know which side to put in.

That's always been on my mind, I have to have region free somehow and originally I thought of buying 3 Xbox360 Blu-Ray add-ons when/if it comes out. But I've just realised that could get expensive as obviously I'd have to import 2 of them (is the UK region A? If so then I'd need B & C, actually I think I'm going to go check the regions, lol!) so they would cost more due to P&P and possibly import charges. So I've just had an idea that might make getting Blu-Ray possible. I'm going to find the absolute cheapest PC I can that has the minimum specs for playing Blu-Ray and all its features pefectly (if anyone knows what those minum specs would be can they post them? Thanks. :D) then buy the LG combo drive as it's only £150. (Probably less by the time I get Blu-Ray.) That way I can use AnyDVD HD for lovely region-freeness and the whole set-up would probably cost less than 1 profile 2.0 Blu-Ray player! :D This is of course in the event that someone like Pioneer doesn't get tired of the PS3 monopolising Blu-Ray, decides to resurrect HD DVD, market it properly and get all the studios to support it and make it the huge success it should have been, lol! ;):p

Maybe they felt that way in the HD DVD crowd? :eek:

Actually it's the Blu-Ray crowd that seem to have the hive-mind mentality. :D

I think region free would have been nice. But, hey, they reduced the regions from 6 on DVD all the way down to 2 and you don't have the NTSC vs. PAL in your way either. So, I'm not going to complain.

Another thing I don't understand. Why do people think "J6P" is a group of people with a common hive mind? If "J6P" were all so like-minded they'd all have the same kind of car, same brand and type of TV, same political views etc.


How else do you explain politics the last 8 years? The vast majority of citizens do think (sort of) as one mind, and it is not a very clever mind, unfortunately.

How else do you explain politics the last 8 years? The vast majority of citizens do think (sort of) as one mind, and it is not a very clever mind, unfortunately.

+1

Another thing I don't understand. Why do people think "J6P" is a group of people with a common hive mind? If "J6P" were all so like-minded they'd all have the same kind of car, same brand and type of TV, same political views etc.I was referring to the people who are more cavalier about electronics, in which case they would not be familiar with BD profiles and have less interest in upgrading from DVD. It's usually accepted around here that J6P be used as an acronym for what I just described. What I don't get is why so many people around here have a problem with the "Joe Six Pack" stereotype? There's always one person in every thread that gets upset whenever that term is used. In the past I have used "the average consumer". I guess i'll go back to that so I don't piss off any beer drinkers named Joe. :p

How else do you explain politics the last 8 years? The vast majority of citizens do think (sort of) as one mind, and it is not a very clever mind, unfortunately.

Well, the last presidential election was about as 50/50 as its going to get. So, that's at least 2 different mindsets right there.

Actually it's the Blu-Ray crowd that seem to have the hive-mind mentality. :D

Could be some of it on both sides for sure. One side just happened to have a much more dominating hive in the real world outside of AVS :D

I think region free would have been nice. But, hey, they reduced the regions from 6 on DVD all the way down to 2 and you don't have the NTSC vs. PAL in your way either. So, I'm not going to complain.

I was about to say it's 3 regions not 2 (and actually I'd be right) but I just looked it up and I think just getting 2 regions should be OK, yay! :D It turns out I'm in region B not region A (I'm in the UK) but just buying region A & B should be OK. Region C says it includes mainland China but does anybody know about Hong Kong, is it Region C or is it included in either Region A or B? A Hong Kong website I use has some cool Japanese, Hong Kong etc horror movies and they're really cheap (no, they're not pirates, lol!) so if I got Blu-Ray I'd want to be able to get Blu-Ray movies from Hong Kong. Also to the people saying importing is expensive, it's not when you're in the UK importing from America!

Originally Posted by briankmonkey
Aside from superior specs, studio support,CE support userbase and players blu-ray has has better marketing as well

Those were never fears that I had about Blu-ray. :p

:D:D:D

Neither did I :D

I agree with your analysis. I always thought that all we needed was to get everyone on board to a single format, and then the problems of whichever format would be resolved.


1. REPLICATION ISSUES: I never thought this would be a problem for long. I remember 30 years ago when MCA DiscoVision was trying to make a go of LaserDisc with their Culver City pressing plant. What a disaster! People would try a dozen disks before they found one that would play. Then, Pioneer bought the business, cleaned it up, and proved that optical formats could work economically. Had this not happened, we might never have seen the CD, since there was real skepticism about optical pressing in the late 70's.

2. HARDWARE EXPENSE: Repeatedly, we have seen seemingly insoluable economic problems solved by throwing silicon at them and then mass-producing it until it is cheap. The compute power on my desktop here at Stanford is practically more than what the whole school had when I was a grad student. I just couldn't believe that the difference between HD DVD and Blu-ray was going to make much of a price difference to the customer after things got rolling. Totally swamped out.

3. VARIOUS ARGUMENTS: It no longer appears that the various arguments we all had (on both sides) mattered as much as getting the format war resolved and getting everyone together. I always thought that the extra bandwidth and capacity of Blu-ray were small but clear advantages, but it is now seems that these would have been mitigated by HD DVD had it in fact won.All of the Blu-ray issues that existed are being solved with alot of money being spent. :D

Replication is still a constraint, with only a few Sony DADC and Cinram lines now still being able to make BD50s, low yields and 8000 /per 24 hr output versus 25,000 plus for a DVD9 or (HD DVD DL30) machine.

But Warner must have prompted or negotiated something as Cinram is now buying at least a couple dozen BD50 capable lines from Singulus this spring and Sony is spending 100s of millions on expanding BD50 capacity.

That should be enough to meet demand this year. Or a least to have couple of thousand copies of 800 plus titles at Amazon, if not at brick and mortar locations.

I think either could have done well. but its great to have one format to focus energies on and to end consumer and retailer vapor lock and confusion.

On hardware pricing and performance, I think Blu-ray will gt better and cheaper over time.

The format war did not delay Blu-ray adoption at all IMNSHO. If it carried into this fall, it would have, but by ending as it did it only spurred Blu-ray along.

If HD DVD had never existed, Blu-ray would have not been where it was last fall, and with the format war ending in Feb, it will not affect this fall except in a positive way for Blu-ray.

Only thing the format war ended up doing was to place profile 1.0 hardware out in field that can't do all the stuff newer BD players can do.

Could be some of it on both sides for sure. One side just happened to have a much more dominating hive in the real world outside of AVS :D

No, 1 side's company just paid off enough studios and companies to win. :p Besides, I don't think anyone should be championing dominating hive-minds, lol!

I think region free would have been nice. But, hey, they reduced the regions from 6 on DVD all the way down to 2 and you don't have the NTSC vs. PAL in your way either. So, I'm not going to complain.
What happened to region C ;)

and you don't have the NTSC vs. PAL in your way either
Except if you're in the US and you have to make sure the disc isn't 25p/50hz :)

And all PiP content will now also be forced to be 24p if the movie is in 24p too.

I do think that there is value in CONSTRUCTIVE criticism of Blu-ray to make it overall better. There are still a lot of issues (many of which were issues with HD DVD as well) that need to be addressed. If we can get some of this discussion going in the near future, I think it can help.

The early adopter/enthusiast community still has a role to play here. We need to get back together and start lobbying etc. for improvements. Thats one of the reasons I created this thread. :)

All of the Blu-ray issues that existed are being solved with alot of money being spent. :D

Replication is still a constraint, with only a few Sony DADC and Cinram lines now still being able to make BD50s, low yields and 8000 /per 24 hr output versus 25,000 plus for a DVD9 or (HD DVD DL30) machine.

But Warner must have prompted or negotiated something as Cinram is now buying at least a couple dozen BD50 capable lines from Singulus this spring and Sony is spending 100s of millions on expanding BD50 capacity.

That should be enough to meet demand this year. Or a least to have couple of 800 plus titles at Amazon, if not at brick and mortar locations.

I think either could have done well. but its great to have one format to focus energies on and to end consumer and retailer vapor lock and confusion.

On hardware pricing and performance, I think Blu-ray will gt better and cheaper over time.

The format ward did not delay Blu-ray adoption at all IMNSHO. If it carried into this fall, it would have, but by ending as it did it only spurred Blu-ray along.

If HD DVD had never existed, Blu-ray would have not been where it was last fall, and with the format war ending in Feb, it will not affect this fall except in a positive way for Blu-ray.

Only thing the format war ended up doing was to place profile 1.0 hardware out in field that can't do all the stuff newer BD players can do.

I still think HD DVD movies would have come down in price a lot quicker than Blu-Rays (although not that quickly as the studios would still try to keep making the most profit on them as possible) because Sony was subsizing the disc manufacturing and now they've won there isn't any incentive to keep subsizing so making Blu-Rays will get more expensive until they get cheaper so no price reductions for quite some time I'd bet, maybe even slight increases. (Haven't some people on here already posted that they've noticed a few Blu-Ray movies creeping up a little in price?)

Kosty, wake me up when prices come into normality. Unfortunately I haven't bought a Blu-ray in a couple months.

I purchased only 1 disc in 6 weeks. Prices are $29.99 and $34.99 at local shops. Nuts.

No, 1 side's company just paid off enough studios and companies to win. :p Besides, I don't think anyone should be championing dominating hive-minds, lol!All of the Blu-ray issues that existed are being solved with alot of money being spent. Sony and Disney have demonstrated last fall that they will spend a lot of resources in advertising and marketing to promote the format.

Some small retailers I work with have been impressed by the created marketing materials that are being provided free.

I know of some future Bu-ray related cable and other media buys that will push Bu-ray in front of consumers through tout this year.

HD DVD may not required tons of money for more replication lines, but that money is now being invested in Blu-ray, so who cares now.

I'm still waiting for a Profile 1.1 Player (+ ethernet port upgradable to BD-Live) with Bitstream output for $299. Since there isn't such a thing out there yet and I don't feel like wasting any more money due to hasty and premature purchasing, I won't be adopting Blu-Ray anytime soon.

....and I'm an audio/videophile, so If I'm not buying... I wonder where that leaves J6P?

The PS3 does all of that except the bitstream (on TrueHD which it decodes).

I believe J6P is buying PS3's. Especially if they have any inclination to gaming (or kids that do)

Even a month or so ago I couldn't picture Kosty or 5thDanMaster talking about the benefits of blu ray. Wow.Well I've always liked Blu-ray. Its just that I thought HD DVD was effectively as good, was a better value and was a quicker path to mass adoption.

Always was and will be a HD and home theater fan first.

...plus , as the OP stated, I had some fears about Blu-ray. :D

Toshiba's bribing of Paramount really only IMO extended the war a little longer as HD DVD probably wouldn't have made it to 08 without that move. It was a smart desperation move indeed but still not nearly enough. In the end it was a miserable failure for Toshiba and depending on how much Paramount got to keep a great success for them.

Thankfully Toshiba wasn't able to pay off Warner :p and Warner sided with the vast majority of early adopters unlike Paramount :D

Oh, brother....

One thing's for sure, Bluray would still be pumping out mpeg-2 movies if HD-DVD hadn't blown them away in the picture quality category with their initial VC-1 releases. If bluray Mpeg-2 didn't have anything to compare itself to, I think they would have continued along that path. But since HD-DVD provided superior picture quality and sound right out the gate, it forced bluray to improve, which was simply by adopting apple's codec instead of the tired old mpeg-2.

Not another Blu-ray cheerleading thread... :rolleyes:

Let's see what happens. Let's see how the OP's predictions play out this year and the next.

There are economic storms on the horizon that will be harder than profiles for Blu-ray to control.

Yeah, 5thDanMaster/Oshodi especially. It seems like yesterday he was passing out flyers at Best Buy to push HD-DVD. Ok, maybe it was a year ago but still.;)http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=47782

His statement was/is quite an event.

Unlike him though, I never was anti Blu-ray. I just thought that HD DVD was the better option, but I always enjoyed watching Blu-ray and always planned to get a Blu-ray player as soon as BD-Live prices fell.

I've demoed a lot of Blu-ray equipment, loved the PQ and AQ but never found a player besides the PS3 that met my usability standards and had the oomph to run BD-J effectively.

One thing's for sure, Bluray would still be pumping out mpeg-2 movies if HD-DVD hadn't blown them away in the picture quality category with their initial VC-1 releases. If bluray Mpeg-2 didn't have anything to compare itself to, I think they would have continued along that path. But since HD-DVD provided superior picture quality and sound right out the gate, it forced bluray to improve, which was simply by adopting apple's codec instead of the tired old mpeg-2.

Exactly, Blu-Ray supporters should be thankful of HD DVD's competition, not still bashing it even after the war is over. I still don't get why they're still being so defensive over any litle piece of Blu-Ray criticism, what are they afraid of? :confused:

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=47782

His statement was/is quite an event.

Unlike him though, I never was anti Blu-ray. I just thought that HD DVD was the better option, but I always enjoyed watching Blu-ray and always planned to get a Blu-ray player as soon as BD-Live prices fell.

I've demoed a lot of Blu-ray equipment, loved the PQ and AQ but never found a player besides the PS3 that met my usability standards and had the oomph to run BD-J effectively.

Ditto but in reverse. I still have my HD-A3r but always found blu-ray to have more of what I wanted in specs and content, but not all the contend by itself. In the end it is all about having a kick ass experience in the home, if blu-ray folded I'd simply be looking forward to getting an upgraded HD DVD player down the line.


Sony's bribing of Disney and Fox stopped HD DVD from getting a better fothold from the start. (Along with Toshiba and Microsoft's poor marketing admittedly.) And no, Toshiba wasn't able to pay off Warner, I guess they thought $448 million was just too much and apparently Warner were too concerned about gas prices anyway, LMAO! 2:1 isn't a vast majority when HD movies only sell in the hundreds of thousands at most on either side.

$448 million is the figure being spewed now? Dam I knew I should have signed up for the email updates from the red leader, lol :eek:

66.52% of all currently released Blu-rays are region free. Take away Fox releases and that number rises to approximately 80%. Region coding is a boogeyman that doesn't really impact consumers as much as some would like you to think.

For me it is very hard to stop buying very, very cheap HD DVD firesale discs! My money will be spent entirely on HD DVD in the next few months. But I hope I could afford, after all the firesales, and atleast before this year ends, a BD-player with all profiles and a affordable price!

I can't agree more. I have a PS3 coming soon (about a month) but still am hunting down and willing to buy HDDVD discs at reduced prices to play on my A2.

I will buy BD discs, but if the HDDVD counterpart is far cheaper somewhere (relevant to discs already released, obviously) then I will pick up the HDDVD.

But I do feel much more comfortable with the prospect of buy BD discs in the near future.

Toshiba's bribing of Paramount really only IMO extended the war a little longer as HD DVD probably wouldn't have made it to 08 without that move. It was a smart desperation move indeed but still not nearly enough. In the end it was a miserable failure for Toshiba and depending on how much Paramount got to keep a great success for them.

Thankfully Toshiba wasn't able to pay off Warner :p and Warner sided with the vast majority of early adopters unlike Paramount :D I think Toshiba's money to Paramount and Dreamworks and Sony's money to Warner and Fox were really part of the negotiations but were made to enable the decisions, but were not the determining factors.

Paramount decision was primarily based on replication concerns, and I think most of those issues were solved to Warner's satisfaction by January.That and Toshiba's failure to move tons of hardware during the 4th quarter.

It was clear then that supporting HD DVD would only prolong a stalemate while Warner supporting Blu-ray might end it.

When the HD DVD player price drops after CES failed to spike HD DVD hardware sales after 30 day, that was curtains for HD DVD. Thats when retail support collapsed.

The monies exchanged or promised for both decisions was nice, but were just sugar on top.

Toshiba was playing for big stakes, but the monies spent on HD DVD is already in last years 2007 fiscal numbers. so that corporation is already moving on.

I'm fully supporting Blu-ray now because its the only and best path to 1080p24 PQ and lossless AQ for HD home theater fans. :D

I have never seen much PQ or AQ difference between the two formats, I thought both could get the job done. But I thought HD DVD could do so at cheaper cost to consumers, in a more consumer friendly manner, with more niche content and in a faster time frame.

A lot of my fears about what would happen if Blu-ray won, besides being overcome by events, are being mitigated now that its the only game in town.

I thought the content available to HD DVD would increase if it won, and if Blu-ray had won there was a chance that only new day and date titles and movies catering to the PS3 gamer crowd would be on Blu-ray, and that most movies would never find there way to HD and would stay on DVD forever.

I feared that if Blu-ray won, niche long tail content would never get to be published on Blu-ray.

I feel much much better about that now.

Among the reasons I supported HD DVD was that I thought it did the same things at lower cost and had the quicker path to mass adoption.

But with the unexpectedly fast Toshiba decision to kill off HD DVD, that has changed things. The complete end of the war in Feb 2008 was more decisive and quicker than I expected and has already lead to some major investment decisions for Blu-ray that will show up in the fall. Thats a gift to consumers.

The significant HD DVD advantages I saw, are now being mitigated by events and those Blu-ray consumers who bought 1.0 players are going to be the only ones getting screwed , but most of them don't really care because they bought their movies in the right colored cases.

I had three major fears about Blu-ray and saw three major HD DVD advantages.

1st: Replication capacity and costs leading to less non high profile content

I had a fear that BD costs and replication constraints would lead to only day and date releases coming out in good PQ and AQ, and that library and catalog titles would suffer or not be released. Also BD would cost so much that niche titles would not afford to be released. CINRAM and Sony DADC's decision to add dozens of BD50 lines and gains in yields have made me feel better about this as has the pure numbers of BD titles available.

2nd: HD DVD had a consistent profile from day one.

Blu-ray was rushed to market with 1.0 players and is now just getting 2.0 players on the market and will have a mix of Bonus View and BD-Live players being sold this fall at higher prices than HD DVD players. The PS3 is the fastest BD-J player out there.

The specific fear was content providers would not use advanced BD-J interactivity for fear of backlash from profile 1.0 owners or people that have slow performance on BD-J titles that do not own PS3s. But it seems studios are just forging ahead, and expecting people to upgrade their hardware to keep up.

3rd: Blu-ray hardware complexity and costs. HD DVD optics were cheaper in BOM , but now with competition and greater volumes and with manufacturers committing now to Blu-ray after end of the format war, prices will fall and performance will increase . Last two years CE manufacturers were only dabbling in Blu-ray production and were content to let Sony take all the risk. this year more than a dozen new Blu-ray hardware designs will be introduced and people will finally have options to a PS3 for acceptable Blu-ray playback.

That and the quick end of the format war will get BD player prices to near mainstream adoption points this fall and certainly by next year.

Other factors like Blu-ray being less of a consumer friendly branding element than the self explanatory HD DVD name, are being or have been addressed by the pure weight of the Sony Disney and BDA marketing and advertising campaigns.

The only thing HD DVD could do that Blu-ray currently can't do is combo discs

Which was an advantage HD DVD squandered because of higher consumer costs (combos cost more), no release beside TOS Star Trek was combo only, and with playability issues.

Even though those were mostly resolved the never were much of a facto in the format war.

Maybe BD combos will come in time, but not for a while, they just won't be a factor in moving people away from DVD as combos could have been for HD DVD.

It clearly appears to me that the studios , manufacturers and retailers are going to commit enough resources to insure Blu-ray reaches adoption as quick as possible.

I thought HD DVD was the quicker path, but with the end of the format war, I see things now moving fast for consumer adoption of Blu-ray.

By the fall, I see a lot of resources falling in place and things moving faster than what anyone expected.

I've always been a HD and home theater fan through all this. I saw little PQ and AQ quality between the two formats, but I wanted one to become mainstream as soon as possible.

I'm glad Blu-ray has won as soon as it did so that this fall can be significant in Blu-ray sales to the masses.

In short, all the HD DVD advantages I saw are now being addressed by Blu-ray.

Even Bill Hunt is calling for a consistent Blu-ray BD-Live profile 2.0 standard for new BD players and for a $250 BD player by the end of the year.

Blu-ray has resource advantages and support advantages that HD DVD never had, but HD DVD did a lot with far less and gave a great consumer experience than its fans loved. I hope Blu-ray companies learn from what HD DVD did well.

I hope, as many people, as soon as possible, will also see what Blu-ray can also do as well or better .

Kosty

It doesn't inspire confidence in a format that has a game console as it's best BD player and standard bearer. Therefore, I might feel better about blu-ray when they produce a standalone with comparable functionality and performance as the HD DVD players at a reasonable price. But then again what incentive do they have to produce a reasonably priced feature laden standalone when they have the enire market to themselves after killing off competition? What's the hurry?

Ditto but in reverse. I still have my HD-A3r but always found blu-ray to have more of what I wanted in specs and content, but not all the contend by itself. In the end it is all about having a kick ass experience in the home, if blu-ray folded I'd simply be looking forward to getting an upgraded HD DVD player down the line.




$448 million is the figure being spewed now? Dam I knew I should have signed up for the email updates from the red leader, lol :eek:

Dude! How can you be so heartless? :mad: Garven Dreis (or Dave to his friends) valiantly gave up his life during the Battle of Yavin when his X-Wing was destroyed by Darth Vader. Show some respect! :rolleyes:

Not another Blu-ray cheerleading thread... :rolleyes:

Let's see what happens. Let's see how the OP's predictions play out this year and the next.

There are economic storms on the horizon that will be harder than profiles for Blu-ray to control.
...if I can help bring 5thDanMaster/Oshodi over to the dark blu side of the force, there's hope for you too...

Rdjam has already fallen to seduction of blu. :D

....remember, just don't go into REM sleep, and you can't be converted.... :p j/k

Your position is very reasonable in holding off moving to Blu-ray and using your HD XA2 as a superior upconverter for awhile. Besides, I know you'll be there too when you can get a fast BD-Live player for under $149 next year. ;)

It doesn't inspire confidence in a format that has a game console as it's best BD player and standard bearer. Therefore, I might feel better about blu-ray when they produce a standalone with comparable functionality and performance as the HD DVD players at a reasonable price. But then again what incentive do they have to produce a reasonably priced feature laden standalone when they have the enire market to themselves after killing off competition? What's the hurry? Because Sony does not control its Blu-ray competitors.

Market competition is now in full swing and you will see some significant competition with BD players in performance and pricing by the end of the year.

Fortunately, BD-50 ended up being science fact and not science fiction, but it certainly look a lot more science than Sony and the BDA thought it would to make it a reality. I'm glad they put the effort in though, because 50GB is a lot more than 30GB no matter what kind of quantum math you try to apply to it. In the end, SIZE DOES MATTER. :)

...if I can help bring 5thDanMaster/Oshodi over to the dark blu side of the force, there's hope for you too...

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?t=47782

One by one, the free peoples of Middle Earth fell before the power of the Ring... ;)

Dude! How can you be so heartless? :mad: Garven Dreis (or Dave to his friends) valiantly gave up his life during the Battle of Yavin when his X-Wing was destroyed by Darth Vader. Show some respect! :rolleyes:
I'll take your word for it that that happened - but I still don't know how Obi-Wan knew he was now called Darth

None of this matters any more. We will buy as we please and we will now let the marketplace prevail........unless the studios start to degrade SD DVD's :eek:

I was about to say it's 3 regions not 2 (and actually I'd be right) but I just looked it up and I think just getting 2 regions should be OK, yay! :D It turns out I'm in region B not region A (I'm in the UK) but just buying region A & B should be OK. Region C says it includes mainland China but does anybody know about Hong Kong, is it Region C or is it included in either Region A or B? A Hong Kong website I use has some cool Japanese, Hong Kong etc horror movies and they're really cheap (no, they're not pirates, lol!) so if I got Blu-Ray I'd want to be able to get Blu-Ray movies from Hong Kong. Also to the people saying importing is expensive, it's not when you're in the UK importing from America!
A
Dude! How can you be so heartless? :mad: Garven Dreis (or Dave to his friends) valiantly gave up his life during the Battle of Yavin when his X-Wing was destroyed by Darth Vader. Show some respect! :rolleyes:

LMFAO Best post in this craptacular thread :D

I'll take your word for it that that happened - but I still don't know how Obi-Wan knew he was now called Darth

He sees/hears Darth Sidious/Palpatine call Anakin Darth Vader on the security hologram in the Jedi Temple in Revenge Of The Sith. (At least I think he does in the finished film, I'll have to check. There was definitely originally a scene like that shot even if it didn't make the final cut.)

A


LMFAO Best post in this craptacular thread :D

Thanks, for both. :D (Looks like I only need region A & B then, cool!)

...if I can help bring 5thDanMaster/Oshodi over to the dark blu side of the force, there's hope for you too...

Rdjam has already fallen to seduction of blu. :D
....remember, just don't go into REM sleep, and you can't be converted.... :p j/k

Your position is very reasonable in holding off moving to Blu-ray and using your HD XA2 as a superior upconverter for awhile. Besides, I know you'll be there too when you can get a fast BD-Live player for under $149 next year. ;)

Kosty or Rdjam tell me it is not true! The "Invasion" really has happened (not as bad a movie as some have said). Love HD DVD but am moving on, Panasonic BD50 is in my sights. Prefer Denon 2.0 player as I am a Denon fanboy.
'

Sony's bribing of Disney and Fox [..]

Sources ?

Thanks rogue, I remember a CCTV scene but didn't remember hearing him saying that (I'm sure he probably does though, but he still uses the old name for the rest of the film and I didn't know how he knew until now)

Common sense ? You mean the same common sense that made some people go HD DVD, some others Blu-Ray and some others wait.. Please...

Why present hard facts, when we have such pratical tools as "obviousness" and "common sense" ? :rolleyes:



So why post it ?

In a respose to the other post about Paramount and Dreamworks to keep things fair. Plus nobody officially confirmed that deal until Toshiba quit HD DVD yet everybody still talked about it.

Kosty, sorry but my shipment of blue pom poms have not arrived yet!

Thanks rogue, I remember a CCTV scene but didn't remember hearing him saying that (I'm sure he probably does though, but he still uses the old name for the rest of the film and I didn't know how he knew until now :))

Well they were best buddies before Anakin turned to the dark side so I don't think Obi Wan really wanted to call him Darth or Vader. (At least until they met again, but then obviously he couldn't call him Anakin in A New Hope or it would ruin The Empire Strikes Back's twist, lol!) Also I just thought, doesn't Anakin call himself Darth and/or Vader during the final duel in Revenge Of The Sith? I really need to watch it again, I think my memory's getting worse, lol!

I was format neutral from early on, but clearly preferred HD DVD. But, it's over and I am very happy to move on and embrace BD. The video quality and lossless audio on BD is superb. I just hope that competition gets cranked up and the price keeps coming down on the players. As a home theater junkie, this whole format war was a win-win for me.:)

I don't fear Blu Ray as much as I do HD VMD,it sounds like it has a disease.

....and I'm an audio/videophile, so If I'm not buying... I wonder where that leaves J6P?

no self-respecting audio or videophile would be setting a $299 budget for an essential piece of hardware. You'd be looking for the best quality on the market, instead.

no self-respecting audio or videophile would be setting a $299 budget for an essential piece of hardware. You'd be looking for the best quality on the market, instead.

How about a poor one?

I glad all you HD-DVD supporters have jumped onto the Blu ship but I think it's going to sink as well. I will never get on board and I am continuing to buy HD-DVDs and I've even bought an AppleTv which is doing better than I expected not to mention cable HD downloads. No blu here not now not ever. :D

I acknowledge that BD won but I didn't like it then and I don't like it now. Enjoy the dog food! ;)

You might call it trolling, sour grapes, etc. but I am going a separate path and I truly hope you enjoy yours but I won't be joining,

Have fun. I am,

no self-respecting audio or videophile would be setting a $299 budget for an essential piece of hardware. You'd be looking for the best quality on the market, instead.

Well, it depends on your budget, and Wireless sounds like Penniless. J6P may have a BD player way before he does ;)

How else do you explain politics the last 8 years? The vast majority of citizens do think (sort of) as one mind, and it is not a very clever mind, unfortunately.
Someone else already said it but things were split pretty evenly in 2000 and 2004, no vast majority there.

I was referring to the people who are more cavalier about electronics, in which case they would not be familiar with BD profiles and have less interest in upgrading from DVD. It's usually accepted around here that J6P be used as an acronym for what I just described. What I don't get is why so many people around here have a problem with the "Joe Six Pack" stereotype? There's always one person in every thread that gets upset whenever that term is used. In the past I have used "the average consumer". I guess i'll go back to that so I don't piss off any beer drinkers named Joe. :p
I know who you were referring to and I wasn't upset. I don't have a problem with the term "J6P." I just don't get why people think they'll act in unison with regards to anything. It's the same as saying we here at AVS are AV freaks and we all do the same thing. Obviously we don't.

The average consumer isn't going to make a decision about something at the same time as all the rest, adoption is a gradual process. Unless you're Angelina Jolie, then it happens quickly and over and over again.

no self-respecting audio or videophile would be setting a $299 budget for an essential piece of hardware. You'd be looking for the best quality on the market, instead.

Very true. It's like someone calling themselves an audiophile, and then going to Walmart to buy a budget pair of speakers. It doesn't add up.

Unless you're Angelina Jolie, then it happens quickly and over and over again.

You, sir, are a God among Internet forum comedians. Thank you. :)

Kosty say it isn't so!!

A wolf (blu) in sheep's (HD DVD) clothing!

Should have known, most out spoken people, like you were, are usually just trying to convince themselves.

I see you've found something else to convince yourself about now. Good Luck!!

Another day, another FUD. Did you have fears about DVD when it won the standard?

Considering the overall economy at this time and the near future, BD may struggle to grow beyond what it has already obtained.

Toshiba killing HD DVD has not helped matters much. People are buying HD DVD hardware and software more rapidly now because the fire sales have brought HD media well within their reach. HD DVD prices continue to fall every day.

It's very likely going to set expectations that HD hardware and software should always be priced this low. How many people are going to be willing to pay 2-3x more than current HD DVD prices to get the same performance on BD?

Kosty, you can talk about Sony's or the BDA's plans all day long. You know as well as I do that they tow the "just wait" line better than anyone else, and "just wait" means nothing for today.

If they are trying to get people to buy into BD on speculation, good luck with that.

To see the needle move in any meaningful way they are going to have to slash BD hardware and software prices in line with what HD DVD is selling for today, and I just don't think they can afford to do that regardless of what rumors may be circulating.

no self-respecting audio or videophile would be setting a $299 budget for an essential piece of hardware. You'd be looking for the best quality on the market, instead.

So basically, if you can't afford to throw tens of thousands of dollars at a hobby, then you can't be considered a video/audiophile?

I suppose then that people also cannot truly appreciate fine art unless they have the money to purchase original masterpieces as well?

I hate to tell you but just because a person cannot afford something does not inherently meant that they are unable to appreciate it.

Allow me to adjust your comments to a better grounding in reality...

Any self-respecting audio or videophile would be setting a $299 budget for an essential piece of hardware if that was all they could afford. However, you'd still be looking for the best quality on the market in that price range.

So basically, if you can't afford to throw tens of thousands of dollars at a hobby, then you can't be considered a video/audiophile?

I suppose then that people also cannot truly appreciate fine art unless they have the money to purchase original masterpieces as well?

I hate to tell you but just because a person cannot afford something does not inherently meant that they are unable to appreciate it.

Allow me to adjust your comments to a better grounding in reality...Wow I didn't notice this kind of person who can't afford to throw tens of thousands of dollars for something they love was the voice of reality in this forum. It's a good thing to be serious about your hobby. I don't mean any disrespect to you but it's really surprising.

Aside from superior specs, studio support,CE support userbase and players blu-ray has has better marketing as well :D

In lots of places disguised as something else also apparently . . . :cool:

Wow I didn't notice this kind of person who can't afford to throw tens of thousands of dollars for something they love was the voice of reality in this forum. It's a good thing to be serious about your hobby. I don't mean any disrespect to you but it's really surprising.

While it may come as a shock to some people here, there are actually people who both love and appreciate fine quality audio and video equipment who nevertheless cannot afford $2000 media players and $20,000 speakers.

However that does not mean that those same people will not attempt to purchase the best pieces of equipment which fall within their means.

And before anyone asks, I do not consider myself to be a true audio/videophile.

I consider myself to be a hobbyist at best and while I can appreciate the difference in the quality of some of the high end equipment I have experienced in the more upscale electronics retailers, to me personally the cost/benefit ratio is too steep to consider investing that kind of money for the improvement in perceived quality to me.

However, I have friends who work in the field of acoustical engineering who spend literally every day exposed to some of the highest quality equipment available. However, none of them feel that they can afford to spend more than a few thousand dollars on their personal audio equipment based upon their current budgets.

While they can certainly appreciate the difference higher priced gear brings to the experience and would love to be able to own that kind of equipment, they cannot spend the amounts of money needed at this time to modify their homes acoustically to be able to justify the expense of the extreme end of the electronics spectrum.

And so, they shop for the best items that they can afford in order to experience the best quality that they are able.

Given unlimited resources though, they would spend the money required to achieve what they would consider to be a room for that "perfect experience".

Which is where they differ from me in that even if I had tens of millions of dollars I doubt that I would ever spend $20,000 on speakers.

They however, would.

Thus I would consider them to be "true" audiophiles even if they are for the time being limited by their resources.

Well not everybody reads that forum. ;)

Thought it worthwhile to post it here as well, and get AVS thoughts as well. :)

So - any other networks you are putting this advertisement in also?
Do you get revenues based on volume? :cool:

Even a month or so ago I couldn't picture Kosty or 5thDanMaster talking about the benefits of blu ray. Wow.

Yep - same kool-aid - different color . . . :cool:

The PS3 does all of that except the bitstream (on TrueHD which it decodes).

I believe J6P is buying PS3's. Especially if they have any inclination to gaming (or kids that do)

Agreed - if someone is into gaming and likes the games available on the ps3, it is a good blu-ray solution. For the rest of us . . just wait for a profile 2 standalone player in the $200 price range before buying. Maybe sometime in 2009 now that Sony/Matsushita has a monopoly. :cool:

And no, Toshiba wasn't able to pay off Warner, I guess they thought $448 million was just too much and apparently Warner were too concerned about gas prices anyway, LMAO!According to one or more of the same insiders who have said that Warner was paid, Toshiba wasn't given the opportunity to match it by Warner (really would be Time Warner making final decisions though). So, Toshiba may have been willing to match the worth of the offer from the other side, but it wouldn't have mattered if they had, unless they got another big studio to go their way. As I've said before, kind of like a star quarterback refusing to sign with a team unless they sign a star wide receiver first and when they don't he goes to the team with a star wide receiver because he wants to win championships and while he will get paid, it wasn't just the money that decided which team he went to. Warner wanted to play just for a side that could win this thing quickly, as Kosty said. And I think the evidence is pretty strong that Warner was right that going to Blu-ray would end the war quicker.
2:1 isn't a vast majority when HD movies only sell in the hundreds of thousands at most on either side.~2:1 was just the US. Europe was worse for HD DVD and HD DVD was getting killed in Japan (~9:1 is what I've seen). Warner going with HD DVD exclusively worldwide would have meant going with the side that was behind pretty much everywhere (maybe somebody can name one spot in the world where HD DVD was selling better than Blu-ray for discs), despite Warner favoring HD DVD and keeping the gaps from being worse, which they likely would have been if Warner had really been totally neutral. Even if Warner had gone to HD DVD it may never have won in Japan, but could have stagnated the HDM market there for all the studios.

BTW: I haven't seen posts from MidnightWatcher recently (haven't looked on highdefdigest), but I think it was only a couple of weeks or so before Toshiba announced they were folding HD DVD that he claimed HD DVD was still going to win the war (this was after the Warner announcement). If 5thDanMaster can change sides like that, I wonder how many others like him (although there aren't many like him) will change their opinions.

As far as those who will never go Blu-ray and will go with downloads or back to DVDs, there is nothing really wrong with choosing to go with inferior image or sound quality choices as long as people realize that is what they are doing, but I will keep in mind that these people couldn't care about getting the best quality for their movies all that much. This whole thing about Blu-ray costing multiple times what HD DVD did or would have is pretty much BS for anybody who has to pay to get their content. Of course HD DVDs are much cheaper now as is natural for a format that loses a war or for lots of discontinued products.

--Darin

As far as those who will never go Blu-ray and will go with downloads or back to DVDs, there is nothing really wrong with choosing to go with inferior image or sound quality choices as long as people realize that is what they are doing, but I will keep in mind that these people couldn't care about getting the best quality for their movies all that much.


Maybe they're picking the real winning format - downloads. You guys can make fun of that crowd all you want, but the writing is on the wall for BD -- prices for movies have gone up after HD-DVD died, no BOGO, no 5 free movie offer. Zero incentive to buy in...especially considering that a majority of the population don't own HDTV(s), and the ones that do (and only own a 23 - 37" LCD) couldn't tell the difference between upconverted DVD and BD.

BD = gap filler until 10 mbps transparent to the master video (we're getting there) and 1.5 mbps transparent to the master audio (DD+, DTS-HD, DTS-HD MA core already available) have been perfected.

According to one or more of the same insiders who have said that Warner was paid, Toshiba wasn't given the opportunity to match it by Warner (really would be Time Warner making final decisions though). So, Toshiba may have been willing to match the worth of the offer from the other side, but it wouldn't have mattered if they had, unless they got another big studio to go their way. As I've said before, kind of like a star quarterback refusing to sign with a team unless they sign a star wide receiver first and when they don't he goes to the team with a star wide receiver because he wants to win championships and while he will get paid, it wasn't just the money that decided which team he went to. Warner wanted to play just for a side that could win this thing quickly, as Kosty said. And I think the evidence is pretty strong that Warner was right that going to Blu-ray would end the war quicker.
~2:1 was just the US. Europe was worse for HD DVD and HD DVD was getting killed in Japan (~9:1 is what I've seen). Warner going with HD DVD exclusively worldwide would have meant going with the side that was behind pretty much everywhere (maybe somebody can name one spot in the world where HD DVD was selling better than Blu-ray for discs), despite Warner favoring HD DVD and keeping the gaps from being worse, which they likely would have been if Warner had really been totally neutral. Even if Warner had gone to HD DVD it may never have won in Japan, but could have stagnated the HDM market there for all the studios.

BTW: I haven't seen posts from MidnightWatcher recently (haven't looked on highdefdigest), but I think it was only a couple of weeks or so before Toshiba announced they were folding HD DVD that he claimed HD DVD was still going to win the war (this was after the Warner announcement). If 5thDanMaster can change sides like that, I wonder how many others like him (although there aren't many like him) will change their opinions.

As far as those who will never go Blu-ray and will go with downloads or back to DVDs, there is nothing really wrong with choosing to go with inferior image or sound quality choices as long as people realize that is what they are doing, but I will keep in mind that these people couldn't care about getting the best quality for their movies all that much. This whole thing about Blu-ray costing multiple times what HD DVD did or would have is pretty much BS for anybody who has to pay to get their content. Of course HD DVDs are much cheaper now as is natural for a format that loses a war or for lots of discontinued products.

--Darin


Frankly, to some BD is like a dish that has been pulled out of the oven prematurely. Therefore, it is not really fit eat. Some have allowed impatience for HDM to get the best of them and in that case they will eat anything ready or not. Me I'll wait for 1.1 and 2.0 profile sauce in the horizonal standalone container as they can keep the oddly shaped vertical one.

Maybe they're picking the real winning format - downloads.As I said, being fine with lower image or sound quality is okay. However, even if downloads sell more, a person picking them because they won is still picking lower image or sound quality as long as that is what you get with them. Please let me know when legal downloads match the image and sound quality of HD DVD or Blu-ray.
You guys can make fun of that crowd all you want, but the writing is on the wall for BD -- prices for movies have gone up after HD-DVD died, no BOGO, no 5 free movie offer. Zero incentive to buy in...Zero incentive for those who don't care about getting the best image or sound quality. For those who care (I would say the majority the frequent a place like this) and love movies, there is definitely incentive. Getting lots of HD movies at the best quality we can get for home for them.
... especially considering that a majority of the population don't own HDTV(s), and the ones that do (and only own a 23 - 37" LCD) couldn't tell the difference between upconverted DVD and BD.Interesting that these same arguments go against HD DVD. Were you pushing downloads over HD DVD too? I hope you aren't naive enough to think that Toshiba would have had super low prices if Blu-ray went away. Toshiba didn't want to have to sell those HD-A2s at $99. They were mostly units that hadn't sold at their higher prices. They were forced to have their much lower hardware prices because they were behind.
BD = gap filler until 10 mbps transparent to the master video (we're getting there) ...Where is this 10 mbps tranparent to the master video number coming from? If from Amir's claims, then I think you've been deceived. Amir knows that he posted false information in trying to support his claims about a couple of titles going under 10 mbps, but instead of showing integrity he decided to try to keep the readers here deceived. He knows that he made a choice to play tricks to try to keep readers from finding out he had posted false information, but yet asks me for respect. And I think intimidation Microsoft had done behind the scenes helped him to keep people deceived when he knew that was what he was doing. I'm sure there is a rule against spreading misinformation here, but some people are pretty good at trickery and there are some people naive enough to believe them even when they are tricking the readers here. Amir could choose to come clean about the misinformation he posted and then tried to get people to believe when he knew it wasn't true, but I doubt he will (if he didn't have enough integrity to not try to trick people here before, I don't think he would have enough to actually tell the truth about it now). Did you come up with this 10 mbps on your own, or did it come out of some of Amir's claims?

And even if they did meet your 10 mbps, I would expect it will be a while before downloads would actually deliver that consistently. With downloads there will be pressure for quite a while to push bitrates down to speed things up and save storage space and hope people don't notice. Kind of like what DIRECTV has done with their limited bandwidth, even after putting up more satellites. This is one of the advantages of having fixed sizes like 25GB and 50GB. There is little incentive to take something that takes 24GB and make it 20GB or take something that takes 35GB and make it 30GB, like there is with downloads. There is basically just the crossover point and then the difference in those disc costs (25GB and 50GB), like DVD had with single and dual layer discs of fixed sizes, where downloads have pressure to make every release smaller.

And who do you think is getting to 10 mbps transparent to the master, since you say we are getting there? And please don't use some animation having a low bitrate to make claims about how much things have improved.

--Darin

I think region free would have been nice. But, hey, they reduced the regions from 6 on DVD all the way down to 2 and you don't have the NTSC vs. PAL in your way either. So, I'm not going to complain.

Let me begin by saying that I'm not the content-owning enthusiast that many others here appear to be.

Having said that, I have to question the value of "region free." I know that region locking affects some certain percentage of people, but I don't know any.

I have maybe 200 dvd's, and about 50 bluray titles. One of my closest friends has in excess of 1500 dvds, and another over 2000 titles. However, other than people on various forums, I don't know a single person that has ever bothered, or even attempted, to import a dvd.

I know its anecdotal at best, but from my personal experience I would have to assume that region locking affects at most 1 to 2 per cent of people in the US.

Apart from some blatently obvious pointers how about common sense? So Disney helps create HD DVD's specs then jumps ship to Blu-Ray because it possibly has extra disc space? :rolleyes: (Remember that Blu-Ray movies were still only single layered 25GB discs until Casino Royale came out.) Anyway it doesn't matter anymore as the war's over. (Unless something else comes along.)

If you're going to claim it, then back it up. If it doesn't matter any more, don't post it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chris0
Unless you're Angelina Jolie, then it happens quickly and over and over again.

You, sir, are a God among Internet forum comedians. Thank youYou, sir, are a God among Internet forum comedians. Thank you. :)

I was reading this thread backwards. I can't tell you how disappointed I was to make it past your post to chris0's and find out what happens quickly and over and over again.

I know its anecdotal at best, but from my personal experience I would have to assume that region locking affects at most 1 to 2 per cent of people in the US.
I think it's mostly people outside the US that are most disadvantaged by region coding (and price differences/non-existing titles in their region/or if they are, they appear months later)

As I said, being fine with lower image or sound quality is okay. However, even if downloads sell more, a person picking them because they won is still picking lower image or sound quality as long as that is what you get with them. Please let me know when legal downloads match the image and sound quality of HD DVD or Blu-ray.
Zero incentive for those who don't care about getting the best image or sound quality. For those who care (I would say the majority the frequent a place like this) and love movies, there is definitely incentive. Getting lots of HD movies at the best quality we can get for home for them.
Interesting that these same arguments go against HD DVD. Were you pushing downloads over HD DVD too? I hope you aren't naive enough to think that Toshiba would have had super low prices if Blu-ray went away. Toshiba didn't want to have to sell those HD-A2s at $99. They were mostly units that hadn't sold at their higher prices. They were forced to have their much lower hardware prices because they were behind.
Where is this 10 mbps tranparent to the master video number coming from? If from Amir's claims, then I think you've been deceived. Amir knows that he posted false information in trying to support his claims about a couple of titles going under 10 mbps, but instead of showing integrity he decided to try to keep the readers here deceived. He knows that he made a choice to play tricks to try to keep readers from finding out he had posted false information, but yet asks me for respect. And I think intimidation Microsoft had done behind the scenes helped him to keep people deceived when he knew that was what he was doing. I'm sure there is a rule against spreading misinformation here, but some people are pretty good at trickery and there are some people naive enough to believe them even when they are tricking the readers here. Amir could choose to come clean about the misinformation he posted and then tried to get people to believe when he knew it wasn't true, but I doubt he will (if he didn't have enough integrity to not try to trick people here before, I don't think he would have enough to actually tell the truth about it now). Did you come up with this 10 mbps on your own, or did it come out of some of Amir's claims?

And even if they did meet your 10 mbps, I would expect it will be a while before downloads would actually deliver that consistently. With downloads there will be pressure for quite a while to push bitrates down to speed things up and save storage space and hope people don't notice. Kind of like what DIRECTV has done with their limited bandwidth, even after putting up more satellites. This is one of the advantages of having fixed sizes like 25GB and 50GB. There is little incentive to take something that takes 24GB and make it 20GB or take something that takes 35GB and make it 30GB, like there is with downloads. There is basically just the crossover point and then the difference in those disc costs (25GB and 50GB), like DVD had with single and dual layer discs of fixed sizes, where downloads have pressure to make every release smaller.

And who do you think is getting to 10 mbps transparent to the master, since you say we are getting there? And please don't use some animation having a low bitrate to make claims about how much things have improved.

--Darin

check xbox live downloads - they are lower bitrate, and unless you have a 110" screen and are hell bent on looking for artifacts (which no one outside this forum is doing), the quality is just fine. They are 4 - 8 gb just for the record.

you may consider downloads inferior, but when both formats are dead (blu and hd-dvd) you aren't going to have a choice, and that's the path we're on right now thanks to your buddies in the BD camp.

If Toshiba cut msrp's to $199 by the 3rd gen, how can they raise it for subsequent generations? Blu is using this profile garbage to jack up prices (players with ethernet are $100 more than players without - look at the msrp of sony's next gen players). HD's feature set was defined from day one, and never had this problem. Your argument makes no sense.

Meanwhile...after HD-DVD died,

1. 5 free movie offer was not renewed
2. i haven't seen any BOGOs
3. Warner titles have gone up in price.

I still think HD DVD movies would have come down in price a lot quicker than Blu-Rays (although not that quickly as the studios would still try to keep making the most profit on them as possible) because Sony was subsizing the disc manufacturing and now they've won there isn't any incentive to keep subsizing so making Blu-Rays will get more expensive until they get cheaper so no price reductions for quite some time I'd bet, maybe even slight increases. (Haven't some people on here already posted that they've noticed a few Blu-Ray movies creeping up a little in price?)I thought lower disc prices would eventually be an HD DVD advantage all along, because of lower production costs, but that never turned out to be true. Marketing trumpeted economics here.

Promotion and marketing incentives from Blu-ray studios like Sony and Disney overwhelmed any economic production cost savings and most probably aggressive Sony subsidies on replication cost (recent Cinram insider said order of magnitude $3 per disc unit) evened thing out.

HD DVD companies never priced HD DVD at significant consumer price points below Blu-ray, and BOGOs etc for Blu-ray in 2007 made it effectively the cheaper format for software.

Add in the fact that if you were a gamer and were planning to buy a PS3 anyway, you got the Blu-ray drive included as a bonus, so your Blu-ray player was essentially free.

Again, replication costs or capacity were a potential HD DVD advantage that might have been a long term benefit to consumers, but in the short term didn't help.

The ramp up of Blu-ray replication capacity is happening now, and with consumer BD movie price points heading to day and date DVD release levels , any suspension of subsidies won't matter much now anyway.

Even if Blu-ray software prices rise a bit during the year, they will still be below HD DVD combo pricing, and they will naturally fall at retail as the market does its thing.

Another day, another FUD. Did you have fears about DVD when it won the standard? err.:rolleyes:

Where is the Fear Uncertainty and Doubt in my OP?

If anything this thread is anti-FUD. :D

BTW, never had doubts about DVD over VHS. :D

Kosty say it isn't so!!

A wolf (blu) in sheep's (HD DVD) clothing!

Should have known, most out spoken people, like you were, are usually just trying to convince themselves.

I see you've found something else to convince yourself about now. Good Luck!!
Always posted the truth as I saw it, and any support or analysis I posted was based on the information I gained and the experiences I had.

Don't need to convince myself of anything, I'm pretty secure in my own skin.

But, I thought expressing myself and sharing my views on the current situation was certainly appropriate.

I like the fact that some of the fears had about Blu-ray are now being addressed and solved. :)

check xbox live downloads - they are lower bitrate, and unless you have a 110" screen and are hell bent on looking for artifacts (which no one outside this forum is doing), the quality is just fine. They are 4 - 8 gb just for the record.

Having used live's downloads, yes it is better than DVD but blu-ray is far superior, heck even HD DVD is superior.

Considering the overall economy at this time and the near future, BD may struggle to grow beyond what it has already obtained.

Toshiba killing HD DVD has not helped matters much. People are buying HD DVD hardware and software more rapidly now because the fire sales have brought HD media well within their reach. HD DVD prices continue to fall every day.

It's very likely going to set expectations that HD hardware and software should always be priced this low. How many people are going to be willing to pay 2-3x more than current HD DVD prices to get the same performance on BD?

Kosty, you can talk about Sony's or the BDA's plans all day long. You know as well as I do that they tow the "just wait" line better than anyone else, and "just wait" means nothing for today.

If they are trying to get people to buy into BD on speculation, good luck with that.

To see the needle move in any meaningful way they are going to have to slash BD hardware and software prices in line with what HD DVD is selling for today, and I just don't think they can afford to do that regardless of what rumors may be circulating. I'm seeing estimates of what Sony and Disney spent in cable advertising for the 4th quarter. I'm seeing already the preparation and distribution of some amazing point of sale materials for retailers. I have national cable contacts who tell me what the Blu-ray companies are planning in dramatically increase advertising later this year.

I have no doubt that Blu-ray will start to be heavily promoted and significantly more available at retail very soon, and certainly during the fall.

DVD player sales have been steady for years (couple million units per month) at an above $100 average price point and upconverting players have sold well at above $150 points. Without any promotion or advertising.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

With a new push, increased availability at retail, and a new technology to sell along with a match with new HDTVs, a lot of consumers who would be buying replacement DVD players will migrate to Blu-ray when the prices are right.

check xbox live downloads ...I have. 720p. Pretty sad that you use 720p as your example to back up your transparent at 10 mbps claim, IMO.
- they are lower bitrate, and unless you have a 110" screen and are hell bent on looking for artifacts (which no one outside this forum is doing), the quality is just fine. "Just fine" isn't transparent. Look, if you are happy with 720p then that is okay, just don't act like they are going to be transparent to 1080p on HD DVD or Blu-ray (other than some material that is resolution limited to 720p or less). If you don't care about getting the best quality then just say so. The argument you are using there would be the same against HD DVD as against Blu-ray, so why not answer the question about whether you were pushing downloads over HD DVD? Rather interesting how some HD DVD fans all of a sudden started claiming that downloads would beat HDM as soon as it was Blu-ray that won.
you may consider downloads inferior, but when both formats are dead (blu and hd-dvd) you aren't going to have a choice, and that's the path we're on right now thanks to your buddies in the BD camp.Seriously, this whole thing about BD is going to die because it is going on more of a normal track like HD DVD likely would have if Blu-ray didn't exist is ridiculous. Sounds like sour grapes, a lack of comprehension of what had gone on (Toshiba going with much lower standalone prices because they basically they had to in order to even stay in the game).
If Toshiba cut msrp's to $199 by the 3rd gen, how can they raise it for subsequent generations?They weren't $199 MSRP, so what are you talking about? And prices were raised from some of the specials like $199 early in the holiday season 2007. Maybe you just weren't paying attention. The HD-A3s were $199 at Best Buy Thanksgiving week and then $299 close to Christmas there. The MSRP didn't change from $299 there. And there were deals with 2 extra free discs on the spot that Toshiba wouldn't have needed to do as much if Blu-ray went away.
Blu is using this profile garbage to jack up prices (players with ethernet are $100 more than players without - look at the msrp of sony's next gen players). HD's feature set was defined from day one, and never had this problem.HD DVD was working on improving their format too, but maybe people here just weren't aware of it. The Blu-ray side does have more of an issue with their profiles, but this whole thing about HD DVD being done was BS from people who didn't know what they were talking about or didn't want people to know they were still looking into adding certain things. HD DVD may have been done as far as locking themselves into that 1.0 spin rate for a long time though, even though much of their reason for picking that was a lack of comprehension about what kind of bitrates would be needed for certain things. Just like you are looking at 720p XBOX360 downloads now, some of them were looking at low bitrate WMV encodes and not understanding the differences between those and these formats, and probably ignoring some of the artifacts those had.
Meanwhile...after HD-DVD died,

1. 5 free movie offer was not renewed
2. i haven't seen any BOGOs
3. Warner titles have gone up in price.Seriously, is it that you want Blu-ray to die, or that you actually believe things like the 5 free movie offer going away are going to make it die? I'm not sure what Warner titles you are referring to, but I Am Legend and August Rush are the same price Warner day-and-date BDs were before HD DVD died and less than their combo day-and-date HD DVDs were before (when they were $39.99). And formats don't need BOGOs to survive and prosper. We know that from DVD. Multiple BDs are on sale this week at Best Buy with a $20 gift card when people buy 2 discs. Do you think downloads are going to get BOGO deals? If not, why do you think Blu-ray is going to die from not having BOGOs (even though there could still be some)? You seem to be reaching in the hope that Blu-ray will die, to me.

--Darin

So - any other networks you are putting this advertisement in also?
Do you get revenues based on volume? :cool: Never received anything at all from any posting I ever did. Except maybe for an occassional T-shirt. pen, or bit of free food or swag at a trade show . :p I don't work for a company involved in the consumer electronics industry or Hollywood and I've never gotten any financial incentive to post.

Thats not why I post.

Never was and never will be.

I have posted actively only on one other forum, HDD, really mostly after the AVS format war time out last fall. A similar thread is there. But I wanted AVS views as well, as this is my Internet home. I was posting here at AVS well before the format war got heated up.

As a signifcant poster throughout the last couple years here in this forum, I feel I still have a bit of responsibility to share my views.

If you disagree, feel free to comment, as always.

Thanks for caring. ;)

Originally Posted by soremekun
Even a month or so ago I couldn't picture Kosty or 5thDanMaster talking about the benefits of blu ray. Wow.Yep - same kool-aid - different color . . . :cool: Never drink the stuff. :D

I've been consistent as a enthusiastic supporter of HDTVs, front projectors and home theaters and for high definition content of all forms and for HD optical media in particular.

As I said above, I've always liked Blu-ray but I had some Fear Uncertainty and Doubt about it , and I thought HD DVD was better positioned to be a mass market format.


The OP expresses that some of that , I think legitimate, Fear Uncertainty and Doubt, I had is now being overtaken by events and will be addressed in the future.

The unequivocal Toshiba declaration of abandonment of HD DVD support , so early in the year, has dramatically increased the chances of Blu-ray becoming mainstream this fall.

Blu-ray has the potential to become more than a niche, and I see signs that it is ready to break out later this year.

...
Even if Blu-ray software prices rise a bit during the year, ... and thy will naturally fall at retail as the market does its thing.

with bd established as the high water mark for movie pricing. what is to stop them from raising the price on dvd releases?

isn't making dvd more expensive an alternative to making bd less expensive if you want consumers to move to bd?

do studios want a new mass market product or just a way to jack up the price of movies?

imo most of them don't care where the money comes from. bd sale or dvd sale, what is the difference?

if the dvd cost is too much then people will rent or download.

seems like studios would love to kill off the low end of dvd sales in favor of rentals.

Never thought I'd see the day when Kosty would be attacked as a "blu ray" fanboi. I for one welcome him, and anyone else who's truly interested in getting the best HD possible now that Toshiba abandoned HD DVD.

According to one or more of the same insiders who have said that Warner was paid, Toshiba wasn't given the opportunity to match it by Warner (really would be Time Warner making final decisions though). So, Toshiba may have been willing to match the worth of the offer from the other side, but it wouldn't have mattered if they had, unless they got another big studio to go their way. As I've said before, kind of like a star quarterback refusing to sign with a team unless they sign a star wide receiver first and when they don't he goes to the team with a star wide receiver because he wants to win championships and while he will get paid, it wasn't just the money that decided which team he went to. Warner wanted to play just for a side that could win this thing quickly, as Kosty said. And I think the evidence is pretty strong that Warner was right that going to Blu-ray would end the war quicker.
~2:1 was just the US. Europe was worse for HD DVD and HD DVD was getting killed in Japan (~9:1 is what I've seen). Warner going with HD DVD exclusively worldwide would have meant going with the side that was behind pretty much everywhere (maybe somebody can name one spot in the world where HD DVD was selling better than Blu-ray for discs), despite Warner favoring HD DVD and keeping the gaps from being worse, which they likely would have been if Warner had really been totally neutral. Even if Warner had gone to HD DVD it may never have won in Japan, but could have stagnated the HDM market there for all the studios.

BTW: I haven't seen posts from MidnightWatcher recently (haven't looked on highdefdigest), but I think it was only a couple of weeks or so before Toshiba announced they were folding HD DVD that he claimed HD DVD was still going to win the war (this was after the Warner announcement). If 5thDanMaster can change sides like that, I wonder how many others like him (although there aren't many like him) will change their opinions.

As far as those who will never go Blu-ray and will go with downloads or back to DVDs, there is nothing really wrong with choosing to go with inferior image or sound quality choices as long as people realize that is what they are doing, but I will keep in mind that these people couldn't care about getting the best quality for their movies all that much. This whole thing about Blu-ray costing multiple times what HD DVD did or would have is pretty much BS for anybody who has to pay to get their content. Of course HD DVDs are much cheaper now as is natural for a format that loses a war or for lots of discontinued products.

--Darin I think you are dead on in this entire post.

Warner's decision was made on one dominant decision factor. Ending the format war.

They were right.

Now that that has happened faster than anyone expected, there is a huge amount of momentum and resources being focused to ensure the vast amount of money already expended has not been spent in vain.

A lot of money was already planned to be sent in winning the format war this year. That money now will be redirected into migrating people with HDTVs away from DVD to Blu-ray and it will have far more bang for the buck now that the format war is over.

One small example. Circuit City is now giving away 3 free Blu-ray discs in a promo package to people that buy a new HDTV. No Blu-ray player purchase is required, but it encourages a BD player purchase. Movies include Invincible and Night at the Museum and a chick flick and have Blu-ray demo materials in the case.

I've never understood the allegiances to a format (HDM or otherwise). It is possible to support more than one format and it is possible to support a format while still criticizing its short comings. I know, I know. Radical thinking, but there it is.

As for Kosty's coming out (:D), good for you. The Blu-ray feature/price point isn't where I want it to be yet, but I'll be joining up soon enough.

John

Maybe they're picking the real winning format - downloads. You guys can make fun of that crowd all you want, but the writing is on the wall for BD -- prices for movies have gone up after HD-DVD died, no BOGO, no 5 free movie offer. Zero incentive to buy in...especially considering that a majority of the population don't own HDTV(s), and the ones that do (and only own a 23 - 37" LCD) couldn't tell the difference between upconverted DVD and BD.

BD = gap filler until 10 mbps transparent to the master video (we're getting there) and 1.5 mbps transparent to the master audio (DD+, DTS-HD, DTS-HD MA core already available) have been perfected. temporary situation

expect to see things ramp up when new hardware hits this year

BOGOs may fall away, but market forces will now come into play

According to one or more of the same insiders who have said that Warner was paid, Toshiba wasn't given the opportunity to match it by Warner (really would be Time Warner making final decisions though). So, Toshiba may have been willing to match the worth of the offer from the other side, but it wouldn't have mattered if they had, unless they got another big studio to go their way. As I've said before, kind of like a star quarterback refusing to sign with a team unless they sign a star wide receiver first and when they don't he goes to the team with a star wide receiver because he wants to win championships and while he will get paid, it wasn't just the money that decided which team he went to. Warner wanted to play just for a side that could win this thing quickly, as Kosty said. And I think the evidence is pretty strong that Warner was right that going to Blu-ray would end the war quicker. I believe this is exactly what happened and have had insiders relate the same scenario to me. Toshiba was never given a chance to match the offer after it was clear Fox would not go neutral.

But thats OBE now. For the history books or format war memoirs.

kosty,

i am curios to see why you are assuming studios want bd prices to fall.

it seems like you have the same assumption with bd that lead you to think hd dvd prices would be lower.... that is, studios will pass on lower costs to consumers.

imo the objective is to create a more expensive product to raise profits.

by creating a new high water mark, doesn't that allow them the option to raise the lower mark?

i am not sure which is more likely, studios lowering bd prices to "compete" with dvd.....or studios raising dvd prices to get max profit from dvd now that there is something more expensive to make the dvd prices look better.

thoughts?

And even if they did meet your 10 mbps, I would expect it will be a while before downloads would actually deliver that consistently. With downloads there will be pressure for quite a while to push bitrates down to speed things up and save storage space and hope people don't notice. Kind of like what DIRECTV has done with their limited bandwidth, even after putting up more satellites. This is one of the advantages of having fixed sizes like 25GB and 50GB. There is little incentive to take something that takes 24GB and make it 20GB or take something that takes 35GB and make it 30GB, like there is with downloads. There is basically just the crossover point and then the difference in those disc costs (25GB and 50GB), like DVD had with single and dual layer discs of fixed sizes, where downloads have pressure to make every release smaller. Disagree with the Amirm conspiracy rant, but I agree with this part of the post.

Blu-ray will always have a quality advantage as long as there is a bandwidth constraint on downloads. There is no incentive on fixed optical media to do anything less than maxit out. If you have extra space, there can be less aggressive compression an a higher bit rate or better extras etc can be used to fill the bucket.

But thats not the incentive for downloads. Besides the fact of using compressionists looking at the output versus a real time encoder, there is an incentive to save bandwidths and use the lowest size encoding that is acceptable. So that may be a 720p VC-1 or AC decode that exceeds broadcast OAR 720p or 1080i60 real time transmissions but falls well short of Blu-ray's 1080p24 video and lossless audio.

Add in the infrastructure issues, and downloads are not there yet for many years. Even when it gets here, there will be incentives for it to be less than what Blu-ray has available right now.

Frankly, to some BD is like a dish that has been pulled out of the oven prematurely. Therefore, it is not really fit eat. Some have allowed impatience for HDM to get the best of them and in that case they will eat anything ready or not. Me I'll wait for 1.1 and 2.0 profile sauce in the horizonal standalone container as they can keep the oddly shaped vertical one. Thats a reasonable approach. No hurry.

But my Blu-ray library is going to start accumulating sooner instead of later.

check xbox live downloads - they are lower bitrate, and unless you have a 110" screen and are hell bent on looking for artifacts (which no one outside this forum is doing), the quality is just fine. They are 4 - 8 gb just for the record.

you may consider downloads inferior, but when both formats are dead (blu and hd-dvd) you aren't going to have a choice, and that's the path we're on right now thanks to your buddies in the BD camp.

If Toshiba cut msrp's to $199 by the 3rd gen, how can they raise it for subsequent generations? Blu is using this profile garbage to jack up prices (players with ethernet are $100 more than players without - look at the msrp of sony's next gen players). HD's feature set was defined from day one, and never had this problem. Your argument makes no sense.

Meanwhile...after HD-DVD died,

1. 5 free movie offer was not renewed
2. i haven't seen any BOGOs
3. Warner titles have gone up in price. Could be, but I hope you are not right.

On your specific points. Toshiba $199 MSRPs or any HD DVD player pricing are irrelevent to Blu-ray player pricing. Consumers just don't remember things that long and its apples to oranges. Blu-ray will get to sub $249 an $199 pricing soon enough as thats where consumers react to the price an buy.

With Bonus View and BD-Live movies being authored and marketed, market forces will move consumers to BD-Live machines as prices drop. The sooner the better. HD DVD was better here, but it dead. Blu-ray pricing is more a factor of soaking the first adopters, a lack of inventory for mass market pricing and a transition to mass market production during this low volume post holiday hardware sales period.

That will change.

Meanwhile...after HD-DVD died,

1. 5 free movie offer was not renewed
2. i haven't seen any BOGOs
3. Warner titles have gone up in price Yep. :(

But other incentives are coming to drive BD hardware sales (like 3 free BDs with HDTV purchase) . BOGOs not needed for winning the software sales war claims, but now its a shift to driving up attach rates for PS3 owners and to entice new Blu-ray hardware sales.

Blu-ray studios are shifting their focus from killing off HD DVD and winning the format war to transitioning consumers away from DVD and into Blu-ray.

Thats takes a little bit of time. Its only been weeks since the death of HD DVD was announced and hardware for it is still on store shelves.

Blu-ray incentives will come soon enough as studio and retailers get serious on promoting Blu-ray in a few months. :)

To all the people who said no more BOGOS:

Target has one next week. And Amazon.co.uk has one going on as well. Check HighDefDigest or the Deals threads.