Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX, talks to Home Cinema Choice Magazine about Blu-ray's chances to become a dominant format of the future.

After HD DVDs demise the UK Magazine asked him for a comment. "Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" he told the magazine.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format." he concluded.

Hopefully Lucas Film don't listen too much to their THX department or we might never see Star Wars on a HD disc format like Blu-ray.

Source: Home Cinema Choice Magazine (May 2008)

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/thx-chief-scientist-its-too-late-for-blu-ray/5379

I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory.

What an idiot.

I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.

Yea I think those comments are like we should skip a generation when this one is just getting a toe hold. That mentality would ensure that we won't have a significant number of HD films for many many years.

Art

THX? Remind me again why I should trust the opinion of the same people who will whore themselves out to anyone that wants those three letters on a disc or receiver regardless of quality?

Yea I think those comments are like we should skip a generation when this one is just getting a toe hold. That mentality would ensure that we won't have a significant number of HD films for many many years.

Art

That mentality would ensure that we won't have a significant number of HD films to own for many many years.

Fixed it!:p

I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.


That is no longer the case in the largest retailers. Movies take up significantly more space than music does.
The music industry is already taking advantage of it through MP3 players (iPod, Zen, Zune, etc..).

He could very well be right.

THX is a sticker company now, right? :D

What an idiot.

+1

Just because he/she may be the "THX Chief Scientist" doesn't mean he/she knows jack about the consumer market. I really don't see how he could beleive that 50gigs of flash memory will get to the price point of "spinning media" anytime soon. While I beleive it will happen in the future I don't see flash getting large enough and cheap enough for years to come.

That is no longer the case in the largest retailers. Movies take up significantly more space than music does.
The music industry is already taking advantage of it through MP3 players (iPod, Zen, Zune, etc..).

He could very well be right.Except for the part where those are flash-based players, not flash-based media.

Cheif scientists.... LOL. What have they invented lately? Stickers for Monster cable?

There's a reason why scientists and engineers are not business people (no offense to anyone).

One mans opinion don't mean jack.


DJOel

I know a lot of people here don't want to believe it but he is absolutely correct. Some sort of download system is how we will be getting our HD films in the future. It may be 5 years from now but this is where the market is going. BD will have a shorter life span of either VHS or DVD as the dominant home video delivery system. Just because someone has a different view of the future than you doesn't mean he is an idiot. Just my 2 cents.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet

I personally couldn't imagine why I would want to carry movies around in my wallet. :confused: I don't have room for the crap in there right now. Beside why don't we all wait until they have telepathy figured out then we don't needd to carry any thing and the screen can be as big as you can imagine.

Except for the part where those are flash-based players, not flash-based media.

Just look in the front of you PS3 or HD DVD player, there it is.

One mans opinion don't mean jack.


DJOel

Your are correct. I guess it is one man's opinion as to who's opinion it is that doesn't mean jack.

What an idiot.

Just because you disagree, your only response is name calling? Weak and lame to say the least. There are some valid points for flash and downloading.

It's the masses that's going to determine if Flash and/or Downloading is going to surpass Blu-Ray's market share.

But I will tell you reading this type of information does make me hold off on any BD players, not including BD standalones are only at profile 1.1 or getting there.

...Angelo

I know a lot of people here don't want to believe it but he is absolutely correct. Some sort of download system is how we will be getting our HD films in the future. It may be 5 years from now but this is where the market is going. BD will have a shorter life span of either VHS or DVD as the dominant home video delivery system. Just because someone has a different view of the future than you doesn't mean he is an idiot. Just my 2 cents.

Exactly.

It'll be a while before there are USB memory sticks that are big enough and cheap enough to be used for selling high def media on (eg. 8GB USB memory sticks are £19 in the UK and that's without any content on).

Also, wouldn't they need some setting on it to make it read-only? What about power surges - couldn't they be wiped by mistake by a power surge? I can imagine they would generally be more reliable and quieter and cheaper to run than a spinning disc though.

But I will tell you reading this type of information does make me hold off on any BD players, not including BD standalones are only at profile 1.1 or getting there.

...Angelo

If reading that type of information was really holding back your purchases, you wouldn't have bought HD-DVD. The future existed a year ago, didn't it?

Just look in the front of you PS3 or HD DVD player, there it is.

Excellent observation! USB Flash ports already on these devices.

...Angelo

+1

Just because he/she may be the "THX Chief Scientist" doesn't mean he/she knows jack about the consumer market. I really don't see how he could beleive that 50gigs of flash memory will get to the price point of "spinning media" anytime soon. While I beleive it will happen in the future I don't see flash getting large enough and cheap enough for years to come.

Comments like this and calling the guy and "idiot? What are you people thinking??? Who said the movie had to be sold on flash media? A perfectly good distribution method may be to buy one stick and load movies onto it.

I know a lot of people here don't want to believe it but he is absolutely correct. Some sort of download system is how we will be getting our HD films in the future. It may be 5 years from now but this is where the market is going. BD will have a shorter life span of either VHS or DVD as the dominant home video delivery system. Just because someone has a different view of the future than you doesn't mean he is an idiot. Just my 2 cents.

True but saying that it will have a six or seven year lifespan is different than it's too late for it.

Art

I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.

Yes because digital download services (I-tunes) haven't made a dent in the music industry vs. CDs.

:rolleyes:

Comments like this and calling the guy and "idiot? What are you people thinking??? Who said the movie had to be sold on flash media? A perfectly good distribution method may be to buy one stick and load movies onto it.
What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

So currently you wouldn't be able to get more than one movie on a disc at the same quality as a Blu-ray 50GB one, and it'll be a while before 50GB flash memory sticks become available (and that'll only hold 1 movie at 50GB Blu-ray equivalent) - and by that time there might be 100GB or 200GB Blu-ray discs available)?

If reading that type of information was really holding back your purchases, you wouldn't have bought HD-DVD. The future existed a year ago, didn't it?

Going off topic...
I have to agree, I have lived and learned. But I have some valid points to my decision making with HD DVD. Back in the summer of 2005 my 56" RPCRT 480i TV packed it in. I was looking for a replacement at the time without breaking the bank, I bought a 65" 1080i RPCRT HDTV. My 1999 DVD player only supported 480i via component. Therefore in the fall of 2005 I was searching for a up-converting DVD player and I was starting to read about Blu-Ray & HD DVD. Blu-Ray had the better specs like today but on release day Spring 2006 HD DVD had the least problems and completed specs, top it off it is a superb up-converting player which was my main reason to replace my aging DVD player. HD DVD gave a taste of HDM that got me hooked on the media.

Here we are 2 years later and BD still has profile changes and BDM lacking in features and 50GB media still showing no advantage to HDM. HD is gone but I still consider it a better format. I have no regrets with HDM I have a lot of great flicks with a HD player that does excellent DVD up-converting. I plan to continue with another HD format and if Flash turns out to be better, so be it.

...Angelo

He lives in the future...

THX certified flash cards. :p


I look forward to the day when I have a large shelving unit filled with 128GB flash drives. So let's say 2045 or something like that.

Yes because digital download services (I-tunes) haven't made a dent in the music industry vs. CDs.

:rolleyes:

Appropriate analogy? People are downloading songs, not albums. I doubt there's much of a market for 4 minute movie scene downloads...

haha. Nothing like a doom and gloom thread to draw out the bitter HD DVD supporters / BD haters.

Apparently, in this idiots future science won't matter...

edit:
Apparently science doesn't matter in this person's present...

http://www.monsterthx.com/thx/

He states that the studio's will not support blu-ray , hmmmmm
Hello , thought that was how blu-ray won , not long ago...when there were two formats ....and studio support for each (more or less)
better stick with their lab coat and test tubes ...LOL
Bob
Not an idiot , but close ??
I mean myself !!

That is no longer the case in the largest retailers. Movies take up significantly more space than music does.
The music industry is already taking advantage of it through MP3 players (iPod, Zen, Zune, etc..).

He could very well be right.

At my local best buy the cd isles is still twice the size of the movie isles.

THX certified flash cards. :p


I look forward to the day when I have a large shelving unit filled with 128GB flash drives. So let's say 2045 or something like that.

I'll be too old to ride a hover board , DANG !!

He lives in the future...

Another dimension , or dementia

Movies take up shelf space because they want them to, not because they have to. The packaging is a big deal. If this were not the case, they would simply keep the discs in envelopes. Even in game-stores, they put EMPTY BOXES on the shelf and keep the games behind the desk. Why would they put empty boxes out there if retailers didn't like to waste the shelf space? It's because having the pretty box sitting there in plain sight helps to sell the product. Retailers don't want to get rid of shelf space, because as soon as shelf space doesn't matter, they go out of business, because that's the value-add they bring to the equation.

What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

So currently you wouldn't be able to get more than one movie on a disc at the same quality as a Blu-ray 50GB one, and it'll be a while before 50GB flash memory sticks become available (and that'll only hold 1 movie at 50GB Blu-ray equivalent) - and by that time there might be 100GB or 200GB Blu-ray discs available)?

200GB Flash cards will be readily available whereas 200GB Blu-ray discs may never see the light of day outside of laboratory settings. You would be able to easily buy 128GB or larger flash memory within 3 years or less.

I'll be too old to ride a hover board , DANG !!
I thought we'd be getting those in good old 2015, along with flying cars :cool:

200GB Flash cards will be readily available whereas 200GB Blu-ray discs may never see the light of day outside of laboratory settings. You would be able to easily buy 128GB or larger flash memory within 3 years or less.

That's quite the crystal ball you've got...

Movies take up shelf space because they want them to, not because they have to. The packaging is a big deal. If this were not the case, they would simply keep the discs in envelopes. Even in game-stores, they put EMPTY BOXES on the shelf and keep the games behind the desk. Why would they put empty boxes out there if retailers didn't like to waste the shelf space? It's because having the pretty box sitting there in plain sight helps to sell the product. Retailers don't want to get rid of shelf space, because as soon as shelf space doesn't matter, they go out of business, because that's the value-add they bring to the equation.

Also , to help prevent theft . cd's in that long card board box ....
harder to walk out with , not from personal experiance , honest !

Comments like this and calling the guy and "idiot? What are you people thinking??? Who said the movie had to be sold on flash media? A perfectly good distribution method may be to buy one stick and load movies onto it.
Good enough for whom?
Certainly not BD and HD-DVD supporters that want the best possible movie PQ/AQ (BD fans) and all the extras (HD-DVD fans). I want movies in my hands, not available at some point in the future over some download service or video “gas station”. Give me 50GB ROM SD sticks and you have a deal.

Don't forget Divix , they actually were going to make us pay to rewatch a movie ...we paid for.
good for consumer ?? not really
I'm interested if you buy once and own the thang ....

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."


Does this guy actually believe that you would walk into a store and do this? This would all be done from you computer over the net. For that reason, stores will HATE that idea. This guys goes from being futuristic to talking about going to a store and someone copying a movie kind of like getting pictures developed in 1990. lol

True but saying that it will have a six or seven year lifespan is different than it's too late for it.

Art

I think he is saying that with so short a prospective lifespan and the time it will normally takes for a format to be mass adopted that it may in fact be too late. That and the fact that is is possible that technology in general may be moving away from physical media. It is certainly not too late for those of us on AVS though and I think we can all agree on that. However, we are NOT the mass market.

Finally a forward thinking scientist. Optical discs are so 90's ...

I worked on memory stick movie transports about 2 years ago. Allot of stuff I work on is 3-5 years out. Flash movie distribution is coming people, maybe by 2009 even.

Going off topic...
I have to agree, I have lived and learned. But I have some valid points to my decision making with HD DVD. Back in the summer of 2005 my 56" RPCRT 480i TV packed it in. I was looking for a replacement at the time without breaking the bank, I bought a 65" 1080i RPCRT HDTV. My 1999 DVD player only supported 480i via component. Therefore in the fall of 2005 I was searching for a up-converting DVD player and I was starting to read about Blu-Ray & HD DVD. Blu-Ray had the better specs like today but on release day Spring 2006 HD DVD had the least problems and completed specs, top it off it is a superb up-converting player which was my main reason to replace my aging DVD player. HD DVD gave a taste of HDM that got me hooked on the media.

Here we are 2 years later and BD still has profile changes and BDM lacking in features and 50GB media still showing no advantage to HDM. HD is gone but I still consider it a better format. I have no regrets with HDM I have a lot of great flicks with a HD player that does excellent DVD up-converting. I plan to continue with another HD format and if Flash turns out to be better, so be it.

...Angelo

It's very likely that BD will be the last "spinning disk" format, but I personally could not wait 5 - 10 years to get back in to HDM in a solid state form. I plan on enjoying many new BD movies between now and then. When solid state movies become the norm (not downloads, but SD - ROM sticks), I'll likely be an early adopter again.

When is VR coming ??

Did I miss something. When is Star Wars coming out on Flash drives?:D

Since Flash memory can have higher bandwidth/bit-rate, I am waiting for the USB/Flash format that supports 10 bit color and 3D. As the guy said, you can carry them in your wallet and there's no moving parts! Spinning discs are like soooo last century.

Does this guy actually believe that you would walk into a store and do this? This would all be done from you computer over the net. For that reason, stores will HATE that idea. This guys goes from being futuristic to talking about going to a store and someone copying a movie kind of like getting pictures developed in 1990. lol

Hey I still develop pictures, haha! Does that mean I'm old fashioned. That's not possible I'm only 20!

Appropriate analogy? People are downloading songs, not albums. I doubt there's much of a market for 4 minute movie scene downloads...

I download whole albums.

I think he is saying that with so short a prospective lifespan and the time it will normally takes for a format to be mass adopted that it may in fact be too late. That and the fact that is is possible that technology in general may be moving away from physical media. It is certainly not too late for those of us on AVS though and I think we can all agree on that. However, we are NOT the mass market.

Perhaps because of my age and the fact that I spent most of my adult life putting things off,I think that the dismissal of BD isn't a good thing. I don't want to wait another five years to get films in HD(flash memory) so I want to support BD now during this lifetime.

I don't doubt he is right but I think five to seven year increments of life are worth enjoying for today.

Art

Perhaps because of my age and the fact that I spent most of my adult life putting things off,I think that the dismissal of BD isn't a good thing. I don't want to wait another five years to get films in HD(flash memory) so I want to support BD now during this lifetime.

I don't doubt he is right but I think five to seven year increments of life are worth enjoying for today.

Art

Agree with that ...
Also hd-dvd and blu-ray put up a big fuss for something ....
Why would they even get envolved if there was not potential cash to be made...
Plus the life spans of tech always have a limit ...why sell once when you can milk it several times ...
Bob

Agree with that ...
Also hd-dvd and blu-ray put up a big fuss for something ....
Why would they even get envolved if there was not potential cash to be made...
Plus the life spans of tech always have a limit ...why sell once when you can milk it several times ...
Bob


Reminds me of Intel. incremental speed bumps over many years, to hold sales high.

Several people that disagreed with blu-ray are adopting blu-ray ...
Hater ?? no one in here but us chickens ....
Still looking for a player , ahem ....
Bob

I think Flash Memory HD movies will be a hard sell to the casual consumer, unless it's packaged like a UMD with the Flash USB memory stick held in the middle. So that stores can sell it like packaged media.

http://blog.linkedstorefront.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/umds.jpg

I like the idea. I think what it ensures is a non-finite storage space. Flash Memory sticks will go up in capacity. And they really costs almost nothing. Even a $20 8gb stick, they're making a killing on. They've already got a 16gb stick for $30 that they can put 720p movies if they wanted to.
http://www.ubergizmo.com/photos/2007/4/toshiba-16gb.jpg
Note: I'm a blu-ray fan. The Toshiba stick is pure coincidence. :)

I think something like this would definately put a dent on Blu-ray if they were to exceed the capacity of Blu-ray within a year. However, I don't see how they can make it read only. Studios would not be so willing to abandon the disc format and the DRM capabilities of Blu-ray. Millions were spent to ensure that.

I don't believe a semiconductor based movie delivery mechanism can ever be cost competitive with optical media. What does a DVD cost to press today? $0.10? Blu-Ray I've heard is about $0.50. That is a long way from $30.

In any case flash or optical disk who cares? It is the file format that counts, and Blu-Ray files will be what is on the flash drive so that it will play on existing players.

Of course there is a little matter of copy protection to solve, which means you may need some added hardware on that flash drive. It could be a lot longer than 5 years to be a major distribution channel because of costs associated with that idea.

As far as downloads go, I don't think so. It works for overcompressed three minute throwaway pop music singles, but album sales by download haven't taken off; they are minuscule compared to CD sales. An HD movie is bigger yet - ten thousand times larger than a mp3 single.

I personally couldn't imagine why I would want to carry movies around in my wallet. :confused: I don't have room for the crap in there right now. Beside why don't we all wait until they have telepathy figured out then we don't needd to carry any thing and the screen can be as big as you can imagine.



Not before flying cars my friend.:mad: So lets keep it in perspective;)


DJoel

I download whole albums.

You and a couple of other people on the planet do that.

Ld's had bigger pictures on them , Would just hate to see how small the pictures will get in the future ...or no pictures at all ...
K , I gotta stop . This is getting silly ...
Remember buying a few alblums , because of the cover though ..

Suprised this thread has not been locked yet ...

It'll be a while before there are USB memory sticks that are big enough and cheap enough to be used for selling high def media on (eg. 8GB USB memory sticks are £19 in the UK and that's without any content on).Yes, you are right. At this moment in time the 32GB Flash chips are expensive. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for them to get down to < $20 or so. Then the consumer will have a choice of whether to use them for archiving movies instead of reusing for a different movie.

Also, wouldn't they need some setting on it to make it read-only? What about power surges - couldn't they be wiped by mistake by a power surge?SD card already have a tiny write-protect switch on them. many USB Flash thumb drives have also had such a switch.

Besides flash rom is not normally susceptible to accident erasure by a power surge. You have to write a particular pattern in the right sequence and addresses to unlock a flash rom in order to enable deletes and writes. Been using them (writing code to program them -- them being electrically erasable non-volatile memory) since 1989. Their usage in critical applications is well understood.

haha. Nothing like a doom and gloom thread to draw out the bitter HD DVD supporters / BD haters.

If I don't support BD, I'm an instant hater??? Great logic! :rolleyes:

HDM has a lot of cool features that I would like to see studios use with BDM profile 2.0. Plus I want media that makes re-watching with HDi or BDJ worth watching again with a different experience. I have 124 HDMs with more on order, plus I selling some HDM no worth another viewing. Plus this round I'm keeping my options open, something BD fans boys don't like. Even with HD gone you BD guys are still bitter. :rolleyes:

...Angelo

Even with HD gone you BD guys are still bitter. :rolleyes:

...Angelo

Bitter? Why would BD supporters be bitter?

Actually, the guy has several valid points.

1 - Before BD achieves its supremacy as a popular format, it has do defeat DVD. That is not happening. DVDs are still the reigning format and nothing shows that people stopped buying them. If you want home video, DVDs are still the way to go. BD is still a drop in the ocean.

2 - VHS died quickly for several reasons and, so far, nothing points to the fact that DVDs are having the same fate. They might get there. But right now they're not. BD's fight against DVD is a lot harder than DVD's fight against VHS.

3 - BD, for quite sometime, will be a niche format. It is too good and too expensive. Just like SACD or DVD-A.

4 - Today, there are already multiple ways of getting HD content into your TV - meaning that BD has lots of competition. Fast forward two or three years and we'll probably have an even more sophisticated set of options at our disposal other than BD.

5 - Memory cards, flash memory (or whatever you wanna call it) will evolve much faster than BD. And it's gonna get more competitive on those areas BD is regarded as being strong.

6 - Eventually, other forms of data storage and distribution will replace spinning discs. The transition will be from DVD directly into those new forms. BD (at best) will be a rising star that's gonna be swallowed by it.

Same thing would happen to HD DVD.

If I don't support BD, I'm an instant hater??? Great logic! :rolleyes:

HDM has a lot of cool features that I would like to see studios use with BDM profile 2.0. Plus I want media that makes re-watching with HDi or BDJ worth watching again with a different experience. I have 124 HDMs with more on order, plus I selling some HDM no worth another viewing. Plus this round I'm keeping my options open, something BD fans boys don't like. Even with HD gone you BD guys are still bitter. :rolleyes:

...Angelo
Off topic, but I upgraded my BD player to 2.0 last night. :D
Just ahead of the release of 2.0 titles.

memory gets shrunk and doubles capacity just about every year ....
hmmmm
Still like the discs idea . Mass market buyers , where are you ??

Bob

Off topic, but I upgraded my BD player to 2.0 last night. :D
Just ahead of the release of 2.0 titles.

I read about it but didn't bother as I just wanted to fire up I Am Legend. A bit different than what I thought it might be but very entertaining flick! Nice to be able to buy it for under $20 as well for a brand new release. I'm going to have to rent The Omega Man now.

At my local best buy the cd isles is still twice the size of the movie isles.

Your local Best Buy is not indicative of the rest of the market.

200GB Flash cards will be readily available whereas 200GB Blu-ray discs may never see the light of day outside of laboratory settings. You would be able to easily buy 128GB or larger flash memory within 3 years or less.

That's quite the crystal ball you've got...

Not really, just history of flash prices and capacities. In early 2005, you could get 128MB USB drive for around $30. Today for the same price, I could buy a 8GB USB drive. That's 2^6 increase in capacity in 3 years. Carry that forward 3 more years, that would work out to ~512GB USB drive for the same price in 2011.

Actually, the guy has several valid points.

1 - Before BD achieves its supremacy as a popular format, it has do defeat DVD. That is not happening. DVDs are still the reigning format and nothing shows that people stopped buying them. If you want home video, DVDs are still the way to go. BD is still a drop in the ocean.




No dominant video or audio format has ever been replaced in less than 2 years...not even close.

Off topic, but I upgraded my BD player to 2.0 last night. :D
Just ahead of the release of 2.0 titles.

Which standalone with 5.1 analog-out? :D

...Angelo

Off topic, but I upgraded my BD player to 2.0 last night. :D
Just ahead of the release of 2.0 titles.

I thought currently only game machines could be upgraded to 2.0?...not the ones that have sold close to 20 million, I mean the one that sold less than 10.:D

Are there any BD standalones that can be upgraded today?

For years, I have heard the mantra "no moving parts" in terms of future digital storage/playback/etc.

Why is the THX guy an idiot for simply repeating this same mantra?

Technology moves fast & is getting faster all the time. The card/chip/stick thing could happen sooner than any doubters think.

Are BluRay owners concerned that thier "wise format choice" will also go down in flames sooner than expected, hence the "idiot" or "optical media is what people want" comments? Hell, DVDs aren't going anywhere any time soon. That's Blu's biggest enemy. BD disc sales seem to be doing well, but still in the single digits compared to DVD. And no real sign that's gonna change much in the next 12-18 months. Bring disc & player prices down closer to DVD levels? Then it will likely happen. Of course, the added revenue for Blu then flies out the window. It's really a Catch-22 for Blu right now, I think.

I may have been an HD DVD early-bird (not really though, 1st player was bought Nov 07 for $99), but am not bitter over the BD victory. While I'm in no hurry to go Blu, I am not agaisnt the idea at all.

But what with the way tech changes these days, this gives me yet another reason to hold off on BD for the time being.

That & the fact that Toshiba did spoil me with their loss-leading prices. I don't expect to have BD player for a c-note any time soon, But $400-ish is still too high.

DVDs on my Toshiba don't look that bad. And my existing HD DVDs all play fine & look/sound sweet.

Bitter? Why would BD supporters be bitter?

I really don't want to get off topic and want to read about people's thoughts about Flash and Downloading.

...Angelo

Optical discs do need to go the way of the dodo for sure. BD is really an interim format that will have to suffice for now.

I really don't want to get off topic and want to read about people's thoughts about Flash and Downloading.

...Angelo

That's commendable, but if that's the case, why did you post this earlier:

Plus this round I'm keeping my options open, something BD fans boys don't like. Even with HD gone you BD guys are still bitter. :rolleyes:

...Angelo

I think something like this would definitely put a dent on Blu-ray if they were to exceed the capacity of Blu-ray within a year. However, I don't see how they can make it read only. Studios would not be so willing to abandon the disc format and the DRM capabilities of Blu-ray. Millions were spent to ensure that.

If you load SD cards in batches, you could conceivable have nearly unique encryption on each card and even pair that card with a particular release to a set number of playback devices. I could see the studios and retailers using this as both a method to rent AND sell movies. Rent it at Blockbuster, if you like it, hit the buy button within the movie menu and transfer it to your media server. Divx without the throw away discs?

Flash media is the next logical step. Just like everything else, it will require planning and execution.

I thought currently only game machines could be upgraded to 2.0?...not the ones that have sold close to 20 million, I mean the one that sold less than 10.:D

Are there any BD standalones that can be upgraded today?
The PS3 can be a stand alone BD player, no requirements to play any games on it at all. Well, its not truly a stand alone as to watch HD movies you will need a HDTV display device.

I do admit, it's not much like the consoles that have sold 20 million as it doesn't have a green ring that glows red on about 15% :eek: or so of the units sold.

Actually, the guy has several valid points.

1 - Before BD achieves its supremacy as a popular format, it has do defeat DVD. That is not happening. DVDs are still the reigning format and nothing shows that people stopped buying them. If you want home video, DVDs are still the way to go. BD is still a drop in the ocean.


No Country for Old Men Blu-ray accounted for 10-15% of total disc sales. That's a huge gain on DVD from the 2-3% we've been seeing.

I don't believe a semiconductor based movie delivery mechanism can ever be cost competitive with optical media. What does a DVD cost to press today? $0.10? Blu-Ray I've heard is about $0.50. That is a long way from $30.


That is an excellent point. 8mb flash drives cost about $2 to manufacture, if I recall correctly. However, imagine a 48gb flash drive cost in 2009 or 2010. Likely won't be cheaper than a Blu-ray disc production. Also, can flash drives be produced in mass numbers like optical discs? For a big movie release, they'd need a million drives at a minimum.

In my opinion, 3 things stand in the way of adoption for any new format.

The first is technology. For example, flash media would have been impossible 10 years ago. When my family paid $300 for our first 32Kb memory upgrade (yes, that is the correct price for the upgrade kit for a TRS 80 in 1980) it would have been unheard of. Technology in and of itself can be a rather formidable barrier.

The second is infrastructure. Currently, we could build cars that can fly. However, providing the infastructure for such cars would be prohibitively expensive. Laws would have to be rewritten, different monitoring methods built, transit ways reconstructed, parking lots rethought out, ect.

The third is training. You could also call this the personal factor. People are reluctant to adopt technologies they do not understand. For instance, my grandparents refuse to buy digital cameras. They already know how to use their current cameras and don't want to switch.

In the case of using flash memory for movies, the technology is there but the other two are not. Currently, the internet is not sufficient for distribution of large amounts of HD movies. It is getting better, but it is currently not there. Even if it were, there are problems with copy protection and digital transmission of files that would need to be overcome. Also, it would be a radical change in philosophy for the end consumer. From VHS to DVD and now from DVD to Blu Ray the basic principle remains intact. You get a physical copy of the movie and put it into a dedicated player. While using the internet and downloading media might seem like simple tasks to us, I can guarentee it isn't for your average family right now. For flash memory to compete on a price basis with pressed media, it would have to be a download model (ie - buy once, write many - you cannot press a flash memory stick in mass quantities). That means a radical change for the end user - something many people will resist.

It is my belief that if a product has 2 of these 3 the other can be overcome. I just don't see that with Flash memory for movies right now. Yes, the technology is there. Yes, the technology would be cool. I just cannot see people investing the money in the required infrastructure right now, or an easy way to overcome the natural reluctance people have to changing. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just that I don't find it likely.

That being said, the THX scientist is entitled to his opinion that it will happen. I find it odd that people would resort to calling him names over this prediction.

Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX, talks to Home Cinema Choice Magazine about Blu-ray's chances to become a dominant format of the future.

Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."


LOL, I am sure stores will love that idea..... What do we need the store for?

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."'

Do any retail stores do this with music? Legally of course.

What will be more likely to evolve is a business model like the I-tunes/Apple store.

You buy a dedicated memory stick/player (Iphone/Ipod), take it to the store and they download the movie(s) you want to watch into the memory.

You then can play/preview the film on the devices miniature screen or take it home to upload onto your dedicated media station (Apple TV). The license you paid for will allow the film to be transfered to any other (same brand) player/media station registered to you but to no one else.

The stores will be similar to the current rental/retail stores but will have place cards on the shelves for the individual movies as opposed to physical media. Kiosks around the store will allow you to call up and preview any film in the store's library.

This marketing strategy also has the option to allow people with high speed internet connections the ability to purchase/download their movies from home if they have the extra time that would be needed (2-4 hours).

This is what Jobs and Apple are already moving people towards and I would say that the complete business model similar to what I have described above will be up and running in 18-24 months.

Blu-Ray has that long to integrate itself into the mass market and beat this new type of video marketing to the punch.

'

Do any retail stores do this with music? Legally of course.

Apple/I-tunes.

Apple/I-tunes.

I was in the apple store this morning and they don't offer to copy music to a flash based device for you.

You buy a dedicated memory stick/player (Iphone/Ipod), take it to the store and they download the movie(s) you want to watch into the memory.



Surely you can't be serious about people going to a store to download?

I was in the apple store this morning and they don't offer to copy music to a flash based device for you.

Actually they do.

I think if flash base media were in the hunt the music industry would have taken
advantage of it long ago because music takes up far more shelf space than movies
will ever be capable of.Yeah... If only they had something like that... They could call it... oh... an iPod, for example... Oh wait... That's just crazy dreaming on my part!

You would be able to easily buy 128GB or larger flash memory within 3 years or less.

for $29.99? yeah, sure. i'll believe it when I see it. no way that's happening at the same price point as an optical disc within 3 years.

for $29.99? yeah, sure. i'll believe it when I see it. no way that's happening at the same price point as an optical disc within 3 years.

Pay attention to history. Go checkout size/price of flash based storage in 2002, 2005, and now 2008.

Surely you can't be serious about people going to a store to download?

never underestimate the extent that BD haters will go to attempt to support their doom and gloom for BD.

never underestimate the extent that BD haters will go to attempt to support their doom and gloom for BD.

Is the THX Chief Scientist a "BD hater"?

Pay attention to history. Go checkout size/price of flash based storage in 2002, 2005, and now 2008.

i have. there's no way we're getting over 100gb of flash storage for less than $30 in three years.

i have. there's no way we're getting over 100gb of flash storage for less than $30 in three years.

Actually there are plenty of ways.

Is the THX Chief Scientist a "BD hater"?

can't tell. considering he spends most his time stamping monster cables though I doubt he's qualified to make any judgments on anything...

Apple/I-tunes.

Really, any USB device?

Any benefit to doing that over just downloading at home? Will I get a higher quality download?

Well they do have over 200 locations Worlwide. I'm in the minority and live by quite a few of them so it wouldn't be much of a hassle for me on the way home from work if there was an actual benefit.

http://images.apple.com/retail/storelist/images/top-us081507.gif

That is an excellent point. 8mb flash drives cost about $2 to manufacture, if I recall correctly. However, imagine a 48gb flash drive cost in 2009 or 2010. Likely won't be cheaper than a Blu-ray disc production. Also, can flash drives be produced in mass numbers like optical discs? For a big movie release, they'd need a million drives at a minimum.

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen. Take you flash card home and watch the movie. It expires if you pay the "rental fee" of $1. It can be stored to your player if you paid the "own" fee of $4.99. It will never be allowed to be copied back to your flash card.

You don't replace discs with flash cards ... who here is that silly.

moved to appropriate forum

The key words here are "too late". It's not a comment on the quality of bluray, but on the leisurely pace of it's adoption. The historical comparison to the pace of DVD early adoption is odious. DVD offered the consumer two things, quality and convenience, bluray one, quality.

If flash can offer quality and convenience in three or four years, that doesn't seem like much of a window for Bluray.

Actually there are plenty of ways.

such as?
come on, this back and forth is lame.
if you've got some evidence that flash prices are going to fall through the floor like you're predicting, please share it with us.

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen. Take you flash card home and watch the movie. It expires if you pay the "rental fee" of $1. It can be stored to your player if you paid the "own" fee of $4.99. It will never be allowed to be copied back to your flash card.

You don't replace discs with flash cards ... who here is that silly.

that is the way it would have to be, or just download from an official internet store, but that requires either severely compressed files that won't look nearly as good as blu ray, or everyone getting FIOS. . . . which will happen only in my dreams . . .
i still don't think flash prices will fall fast enough to make it attractive enough to impact the short term viability of blu ray. in 5 or 6 years, sure. but not in the timeframe Mr. THX is talking about.

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen.
hmm, a that's an awfully fast hypothetical flash card you're talking about there. Or, are you assuming the files will be smaller than what we generally get on a Bluray?
I mean, 50GB over USB2 does not equal 20 seconds for the download.
anybody got a 50gb flash drive to do a real world test?
anyone?

People like you have no clue about flash drives and how they will be used.

You will own 1 or 2 flash cards. You will carry it with you to the supermarket or gas station where there will be a kiosk server loaded via DSL with the lastest releases. You make your copy in about 20 seconds using the touch screen. Take you flash card home and watch the movie. It expires if you pay the "rental fee" of $1. It can be stored to your player if you paid the "own" fee of $4.99. It will never be allowed to be copied back to your flash card.

You don't replace discs with flash cards ... who here is that silly.

I was throwing out a possible scenario.

And I'm guessing the B&M stores like Best Buy and Walmart are going to be supporting this move in a few years? It's people LIKE YOU who don't seem to get it.

Selling movies is not just for profit to stores! What movie releases do is bring back returning customers to the store every week. Someone coming in to buy a new release movie might buy a vaccum cleaner, or a microwave, or that new tv that's for sale. That's where a lot of the profits come into play.

If flash can offer quality and convenience in three or four years, that doesn't seem like much of a window for Bluray.

How is having to go to the store to copy a movie to a flash drive convenient? If I'm going to go to a store, I'll just buy the disc. Downloading from home is where the convenience will be (provided you have the appropriate download speeds and they provide sufficient quality). Until then, I'll keep enjoying my Blu-ray movies.

Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.

http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p146/CarlosMeat/MollerXM4-02.jpg

How is having to go to the store to copy a movie to a flash drive convenient? If I'm going to go to a store, I'll just buy the disc. Downloading from home is where the convenience will be (provided you have the appropriate download speeds and they provide sufficient quality). Until then, I'll keep enjoying my Blu-ray movies.

What if you are already at a store anyway, say a Starbucks or a Safeway? You remember that a coworker had raved about some movie called The Umbrellas of Cherbourg. You take your Flash card off your keychain and download the movie onto it.

Did this thread really need to be banished?

Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.

http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p146/CarlosMeat/MollerXM4-02.jpg

Hah :eek:

There is a simple reason the movie industry won't move to flash/hard drive based technologies anytime soon: They won't let it!

The reason optical technologies are desireable, you can't modify the data on the disc. Copy protection can't be cracked on the media itself, only on the player. This gives the movie industry a good amount of control of their intellectual property.

A rewritable format like flash or hard drive is screaming 'crack me', that's why we will never see it as a mainstream format for media sales. This is the last bit of control the media industry has.


Regardless, this is the way consumers are moving. Hard drive based DVRs were pretty popular last I checked. Same with flash based media players. Flash cards, flash drives, and portable hard drives are used every day for moving media from one device to another. We will have to be content with downloaded and DVR'd HD content for use in this manner for now...

Here I am on my way over to the store to load my movie onto my memory stick.

http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p146/CarlosMeat/MollerXM4-02.jpg

Hahaha

I'm in agreement with the sticker posts. lol

What has THX done for you lately?

I was bored one day and a calibrated my 7 years old's 10 year old TV with one of my Star Wars discs, aside from that, why does THX still exists? Who's paying to keep the lights on? Oh yeah, the people who buy the stickers.:D;)

The FYE store in my local mall also sells MP3s via download @ a kiosk. Plug in your iPod or other MP3 storage device & pay at register. All while still selling CDs, DVDS, BDs and whatnot.

How is having to go to the store to copy a movie to a flash drive convenient? If I'm going to go to a store, I'll just buy the disc. Downloading from home is where the convenience will be (provided you have the appropriate download speeds and they provide sufficient quality). Until then, I'll keep enjoying my Blu-ray movies.

Exactly. No way I am going to a store to get a movie. The last time I did that was at least 5 years ago. Now it is either buying the movie online from Amazon or renting it via Netflix. Driving to anyplace to plug a flash drive in to a kiosk is an absolute non-starter for me. That kiosk had better be no further than my mailbox.

You need a big fat pipe to make this kind of memory downloading convenient, so a store like a Walmart could afford to have such a big pipe into each store that can load doznes of flash cards with movies in a few seconds while a shopper is already in a store.

You need a big fat pipe

I already have one of those.:D

Art

Exactly. No way I am going to a store to get a movie. The last time I did that was at least 5 years ago. Now it is either buying the movie online from Amazon or renting it via Netflix. Driving to anyplace to plug a flash drive in to a kiosk is an absolute non-starter for me. That kiosk had better be no further than my mailbox.

especially after gas gets up to oh, $5/gallon!:eek:
not much farther to go.

Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.

Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.


I'm certainly not arguing against downloads if the quality is BD/HDDVD level.I do think that there will a void for all of us if BD doesn't take off to some degree in the mean time.

Art

Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.

Yeah, in the 60s I am sure that a lot of people were talking about time travel, phasers, human teleportation and flying cars.

The idea of Kiosks in stores to download movies is just stupid, then you have to go home to offload it to your media server so you can go to the store and download more movies. Its not convinient at all.

What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

Actually, Amazon.com has a good amount of 32GB usb thumb drives and even one 64GB (the reviews are hilarious).

Do any retail stores do this with music? Legally of course.It's not flash, and it's not music, but...

The DVD Forum has spent a lot of blood, sweat and tears trying to get "DVD Download Disc" off the ground...and a key part of this effort is Manufacturing on Demand (MOD), which supports kiosk-based DVD burning (MOD-2) on the fly for high-value content (i.e., CSS protected movies). The technical/licensing challenges are nearing completion, but it remains to be seen if retailers and the studios will embrace this concept.

Very interesting Amillians. I had not read about MOD anywhere before. Thank you.

so the HD DVD faithful will wait a few years for this emerging technology to be embraced...but by then some new technology will be available that will be even better than flash drive media...some (many) will be snake bitten by their HD DVD experience and wait further...

since the HD DVD fan boys are used to waiting (wait for the 4th quarter sales, wait for Transformers, wait for Shrek 3, wait for Bourne 3, wait for Christmas when the owners will start buying movies for their $99 Walmart players, wait for the superbowl commercial), they can keep waiting while I enjoy my HD movies in blu ray today...

There is a simple reason the movie industry won't move to flash/hard drive based technologies anytime soon: They won't let it!

The reason optical technologies are desireable, you can't modify the data on the disc. Copy protection can't be cracked on the media itself, only on the player. This gives the movie industry a good amount of control of their intellectual property.

A rewritable format like flash or hard drive is screaming 'crack me', that's why we will never see it as a mainstream format for media sales. This is the last bit of control the media industry has.

You do realize that it is possible to create a proprietary flash drive with a chip to insure that it can only be read/written to by the kiosk at the video store and by the (proprietary) media server at your home?

Thus insuring at least the same degree of control offered by the current BD+.

Could it be cracked? Certainly but then BD+ has been broken already as well. All the "copy protection" systems do is keep the "average" person from making copies, they do almost nothing to stop the dedicated hacker.

lol at the "wait for the superbowl commercial". Curious, was the HD DVD commercial funny (intentionally ;) ) ?

Yeah, in the 60s I am sure that a lot of people were talking about time travel, phasers, human teleportation and flying cars.


Check out the movie Farenheit 451, from the sixties. They thought TVs in the future would all be about 3 inches thick and several feet long, like a big flat screen! And the wife bugs her husband to get another for the bedroom, but he is uncertain they can afford it.

hmm, a that's an awfully fast hypothetical flash card you're talking about there. Or, are you assuming the files will be smaller than what we generally get on a Bluray?
I mean, 50GB over USB2 does not equal 20 seconds for the download.
anybody got a 50gb flash drive to do a real world test?
anyone?

This was thrashed out in a thread about 3-4 weeks ago. Nobody sits at the kiosk and waits for a flash drive to be loaded. All the popular movie are already inside on flash drives, pre-burned. You pop in your old flash drive, and a new one pops out 10 seconds later with the movie you want on it. The drive you pop in gets burned at the kiosk's whim...

RT

What if HD-DVD had won?

No Country for Old Men Blu-ray accounted for 10-15% of total disc sales. That's a huge gain on DVD from the 2-3% we've been seeing.


One, two or ten titles do not make a format.
American Gangster was an HD DVD success even AFTER the format was declared dead.
Does that mean anything?
I am sure we'll see a few BD titles perform very well when it comes to sales.
But still we are far from seeing DVD's dominance threatened.

What if you are already at a store anyway, say a Starbucks or a Safeway? You remember that a coworker had raved about some movie called The Umbrellas of Cherbourg. You take your Flash card off your keychain and download the movie onto it.

This was thrashed out in a thread about 3-4 weeks ago. Nobody sits at the kiosk and waits for a flash drive to be loaded. All the popular movie are already inside on flash drives, pre-burned. You pop in your old flash drive, and a new one pops out 10 seconds later with the movie you want on it. The drive you pop in gets burned at the kiosk's whim...

And how is this better than shiny discs? It sounds complicated. The store has to buy some kind of machine that securely takes your old $30 media card and exchanges it with a new media card? What if your card was damaged? How is this any better than just buying the disc I want at the store and walking out.

How would rentals work? Do I have to mail my memory card to Netflix, they image it, and then mail it back? And how is it any cheaper for me… I still have to buy the player and the content, but now I also have to buy the storage container?

This reminds me of the Milk Man in the 50’s. You own the glass containers and just buy the milk. Disposable containers obliterated that distribution model. It’s long gone for electronics too. Pressed discs cost next to nothing to make compared to the value of the content they hold. The storage medium itself has no value which is why they can afford to give it away for free with the content. Pressed discs are disposable containers.

Downloads and flying cars are the future… but they’re the distant future. Bluray is here now. That’s a huge advantage over pie in the sky possibilities that may or may not materialize in the future. Should we stick with public transportation until flying cars come out? Life is short. Get yourself a decent car if you can afford it and pickup a Bluray player to watch movies in the best possible quality available. I’m 1st in line when something better comes out, but I’m not going to pass up the best of what’s available today because something better may come out years from now.

information on discs last much longer than flash media. How often have you owned a flash drive or an camera card only to find out it has a limited runtime cycle before it eventually stops working? Am I gonna have to do that after purchaing a $40 flash drive card capable of 50gigs of a movie or movies which if it goes bad I have to shell out another $40. Disc media is gonna be around for a long time and has a much lifetime cycle than a flash drive. I just don't trust the life cyle of flash.

This was thrashed out in a thread about 3-4 weeks ago. Nobody sits at the kiosk and waits for a flash drive to be loaded. All the popular movie are already inside on flash drives, pre-burned. You pop in your old flash drive, and a new one pops out 10 seconds later with the movie you want on it. The drive you pop in gets burned at the kiosk's whim...

RT

Thats even worse. So people are going to pay for used flash drives? And what happens if someone wants more than one movie?

I don't agree with that, and think it is the perfect time for BD.

Flash based media & players still have some time before prices come down.

No one knows where the next generation will bring us.....we could have another generation of optical media, or BD may just be the last optical media.

Really, it would have been interesting debating with some of you when the automobile came out. Time marches on and so will movie distribution, regardless of what any of us think today.
Very true, and I want my fossil fuel free hydrogen powered car in 18 months ok? BTW, it must work in my local area and be fully supported locally for repairs and maintenance. I really do think hydrogen powered cars are the way of the future and in 25 years they may be very common.

Solid State HDM is also the wave of the future, but just like the above it is not going to happen any time soon. The SSHDM sticks must be very cheap to produce and easily reproducible in up to billion piece quantities yearly and meet or exceed BD media in size (50gig, BW should not be a problem). I want the same model Blu-ray has today, with ordering the SSHDM ROM (not flash) sticks from Amazon or picking up at Best Buy.

I really don’t care about flash media movies

The THX lady is not the first to proclaim flash media as the future. And there is already a business model being created by a company in Ireland that will do just what she says - allow consumers to walk into any store with a movie-loaded server and download a HD movie to a 30 GB SDD card in less than a minute. The studios will love it because it is pure profit for them - no disc production required. And for an added fee the consumer will probably be able to buy a license for a one-time rip to a BR burner if he so desires.

information on discs last much longer than flash media. How often have you owned a flash drive or an camera card only to find out it has a limited runtime cycle before it eventually stops working? Am I gonna have to do that after purchaing a $40 flash drive card capable of 50gigs of a movie or movies which if it goes bad I have to shell out another $40. Disc media is gonna be around for a long time and has a much lifetime cycle than a flash drive. I just don't trust the life cyle of flash.The flash memory chip data sheets that I have seen normally quote over 10,000 erase cycles (Intel NOR flash specs 100K erasures minimum as does most Single Level Cell NAND flash -- the higher density Multiple Level Cell NAND flash has 10,000 erase cycle life). I would worry about the lifespan of using a Flash drive as virtual memory (aka Windows ReadyBoost) -- but not for watching movies with a limited number of writes (50 a year or so?).

What if HD-DVD had won?


The exact same argument would ensue, but names/nomenclature/groups of people complaing or rejoicing would be changed.

One, two or ten titles do not make a format.
American Gangster was an HD DVD success even AFTER the format was declared dead.
Does that mean anything?
I am sure we'll see a few BD titles perform very well when it comes to sales.
But still we are far from seeing DVD's dominance threatened.

Very true. AG did very well for it's dead format. And other past HD DVDs also sold respectable numbers (PLANET EARTH & TRANSFORMERS, for example). And HD DVD is where now?:(

When EVERY BD release makes up 10-15% or more of total video sales, then we have something to talk about.

Could happen this year, but probably not. Still think player prices are gonna have to come down before that level of adoption is going to happen.

So, according to what we are being told about player prices, that WON'T happen this year. 2009 at the earliest.

What's the biggest USB memory stick available though. The biggest I saw on amazon UK was 8GB. Yet one Blu-ray disc can be 50GB (and there can be more than one disc in a case).

So currently you wouldn't be able to get more than one movie on a disc at the same quality as a Blu-ray 50GB one, and it'll be a while before 50GB flash memory sticks become available (and that'll only hold 1 movie at 50GB Blu-ray equivalent) - and by that time there might be 100GB or 200GB Blu-ray discs available)?

http://www.pspgn.com/2006/12/14/new-32-gb-psp-memory-stick/

32 GB memory stick in the works at Sony.

http://www.bestsyndication.com/?q=010908_panasonic_announce_32_gb_sd_memory_card.htm

32 GB SD Memory card.

Read rate (average) is ~20 MB/s or 160 Mbits /sec, spec 2.0 cards (Class 6) have a write speed of 6 MB/s guaranteed, can be higher.

The spec for this allows for a (possible) memory limit of 2048 Gbytes of storage. Obviously in the future. I imagine memory stick would trail this..

A few observations:

1. If he were the THX Chief Prognosticator I would be concerned - scientists/engineers suck at prediciting consumer preferences.
2. While it is inevitable than some form of downloading will eventually replace physical discs, the key word is eventually. Don't rush the future, it ain't here yet.
3. Now that the war with HDDVD is over, if BluRay fails as a format it will be because of poor perceived quality/cost.

Simon

Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX,

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."



Storage space I can barely swing a cat around the room with two bookshelves taken up with DVD! Sooner or later I’d have to call it quits because my home will look like a fringing DVD library.

And how is this better than shiny discs? It sounds complicated. The store has to buy some kind of machine...Hmmm, that is complicated, I doubt a Starbucks or a Safeway or a Walmart could figure that one out.What if your card was damaged? .What if your DVD or bluray was damaged?How is this any better than just buying the disc I want at the store and walking out. . "the disk" and "the store" are key here. If "the disk" is The Umbrellas of Cherbourg, for example, can you find it at your Safeway now? If "the store" is the Starbucks half a block from your office, can you find any disks there?

How would rentals work? Do I have to mail my memory card to Netflix, they image it, and then mail it back? And how is it any cheaper for me Perhaps no cheaper.

This reminds me of the Milk Man in the 50’s. You own the glass containers and just buy the milk....Pressed discs are disposable containers.Are you still talking about netflix? Because in the Fifties, you didn't have to wait in line to receive more milk until someone returned one of those "disposable containers".

Here is a slightly altered quote of yours for you to ponder...

Downloads and flying cars are the future… but they’re the distant future. SACD is here now. That’s a huge advantage over pie in the sky possibilities that may or may not materialize in the future. Should we stick with public transportation until flying cars come out? Life is short. Get yourself a decent car if you can afford it and pickup a SACD player to listen to music in the best possible quality available.

The flash memory chip data sheets that I have seen normally quote over 10,000 erase cycles (Intel NOR flash specs 100K erasures minimum as does most Single Level Cell NAND flash -- the higher density Multiple Level Cell NAND flash has 10,000 erase cycle life). I would worry about the lifespan of using a Flash drive as virtual memory (aka Windows ReadyBoost) -- but not for watching movies with a limited number of writes (50 a year or so?).

http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=1096

Comparison of flash drive performance vs. hard drive and SSD (solid state drives). This was done to see how flash drives perform as secondary drives on a PC, but it does address the survival rates for flash drives. You also get the performance specs, which far exceed any kind of shiny disk drive.

In short, drives will fail if you continuously write to the drives at 30 megabytes /second for 4.1 years. This is based on the rate of failure of a flash drive after 1,000,000 write cycles. Reads are much less intrusive on any memory device.

Given the above expectation of only 50 writes per year, the drive stands a good chance of being viable for a while.

Very true, and I want my fossil fuel free hydrogen powered car in 18 months ok? BTW, it must work in my local area and be fully supported locally for repairs and maintenance. I really do think hydrogen powered cars are the way of the future and in 25 years they may be very common.

Solid State HDM is also the wave of the future, but just like the above it is not going to happen any time soon. The SSHDM sticks must be very cheap to produce and easily reproducible in up to billion piece quantities yearly and meet or exceed BD media in size (50gig, BW should not be a problem). I want the same model Blu-ray has today, with ordering the SSHDM ROM (not flash) sticks from Amazon or picking up at Best Buy.

I really don’t care about flash media movies

http://www.teslamotors.com/

the first one rolled off the assembly line. Surprises me the lack of confidence in technology in a technical forum.

What happens when my flash drive goes bad after three or four years of abuse and my movies become corrupted?

http://www.teslamotors.com/

the first one rolled off the assembly line. Surprises me the lack of confidence in technology in a technical forum.

I think that's an electric, not hydrogen cell, car.

I think that's an electric, not hydrogen cell, car.

It is, it originally came out as hydrogen, was changed for the current release.

What happens when my flash drive goes bad after three or four years of abuse and my movies become corrupted?

The drive would only go bad if you were writing to it continually for four years. If you consider getting new movies say 50-100 times per year, then 1,000,000 writes limit / 100 = 10,000 years until it fails. There is some degradation (probably) due to reads, but unless you've got a lemon, the metal in the package would fail before the internal electronics.

I used the test projections in the article to show that a drive that is being beat to death will still last four to five years.

The access speed (about 0.8 ms) is much faster than hard drive speeds (23 ms) while maintaining about half of hard disk data transfer speeds (SDHC - 16 MB/s vs Hard Disk - 30 MB/s). Remember the units in this is MBytes, not Mbits/s, giving the SDHC about 128 Mbits/s data transfer speed and 0.8 ms access speed. The LG super multi blue drive (Blu-ray) has an access speed of 180 ms in comparison.

This just addresses the technical capabilites of the drive, has nothing to do with acceptance of Blu-ray as a business proposition, or talks to whatever motivates the Studios. As an alternative, though, this kind of delivery method is viable now technically, still needs a year or so economically before it has enough effect. As far as the public, they are already used to dealing with these cards for photography, cell phones and video, so it's not foreign technology that needs to be sold to them.

It clearly plausible for Flash memory and video downloads to over take optical formats based upon the info previously given. The potential problem is Hollywood. Hollywood is tortoisely slow on change. Why haven't theater houses switched fully to digital distribution? Imagine Cinema's making money off of the movie and not just popcorn, lowering ticket prices back to $6, or Studios no longer needing huge amounts for film stock. The same can be asked for music stores. digital distribution of music, so consumers can burn the music they want. Zero theft or overhead. These are just 2 examples. However, just because something is a great idea, looks promising, potentially saves millions of dollars, as well as producing millions of dollars, doesn't mean it will come to fruition. I personally think Blu-ray will be suppassed by some other format before it over takes DVD, but Hollywood's track record makes my prediction a hunch at best.

What happens when my flash drive goes bad after three or four years of abuse and my movies become corrupted?

The adoption of flash media almost has to coincide with a video download service, so people will have the ability to backup their media like mp3s.

Why are we still using optical discs? This is the future, we should be using move nifty technology such as flash, which obviosuly saves more space and will hold more data. Let's move away from the 90's and think of the future!

I personally think Blu-ray will be suppassed by some other format before it over takes DVD, but Hollywood's track record makes my prediction a hunch at best.

How would you define overtakes, more sales ? Sales to the level of DVD at it's peak,head to head sales at some specified later time ?

The exact same argument would ensue, but names/nomenclature/groups of people complaing or rejoicing would be changed.

I dont think that is true. People who bought into BD on average paid more and were willing to spend more. The motto "Price is everything" was not a part of the Blu Ray fan base.

It is my opinion that had hddvd won, people would be upset about the lower bandwidth and disc space. But these people are more likely to just buy an HD-DVD player. For instance, I am a blu ray fan, but I bought into HD-DVD when I thought they were going to last for 18 more months(paramount).

In contrast, you have HD-DVD owners who got in on the bottom floor at clearout prices.... who feel price is everything. And since Blu ray prices dont compare to HD-DVD clearout prices, these people are jumping on anything thats not blu ray.

I guess it's easy to generalize, isn't it? There's a difference between price and value. And realize, many HD DVD owners got in well before player prices dropped through the floor. And many of us still don't see value in the current BD hardware options. The picture is more complex than you appear to see it.

A guy in the industry makes a perfectly reasonable opinion about blu-rays chances of replacing DVD and all the smarty pants chime in trying to out do each other with "clever" derogatory comments and wild hyperbole. Why not try to analyze the issue with some common sense and actually contribute?

Think of it. BD & HD had to develop new encodes for audio and video, develop a new media (or two), start up new production facilities, design new players/lasers, build them, sell them and compete for floor space, etc, etc, etc. Then two formats delayed and fractured the market move away from DVD - which incidentally gave alternatives two years of breathing room.

With flash the format is already developed, standardized, implemented and in a robust distribution channel. The content and encoding mechanisms for audio and video already exist as does the capability of loading the encoded content onto the format. Add to that the simplicity of players that have no moving parts and no constraints or relatively high costs of new technology (i.e. blu lasers). Those are some pretty significant advantages that flash starts with to dismiss out of hand. Mr. THX dude didn't say STOP-WAIT, he just said BD probably is too late and flash may be the eventual successor to DVD. Pretty reasonable to me.

I guess it's easy to generalize, isn't it? There's a difference between price and value. And realize, many HD DVD owners got in well before player prices dropped through the floor. And many of us still don't see value in the current BD hardware options. The picture is more complex than you appear to see it.

HD-DVD was always cheaper. HD-DVDs choice was to focus mainly on price. Even their head guy was quoted as saying something to the effect of "HD-DVD will always be cheaper. If Blu Ray cuts their prices, we will cut ours even more"

That was the main focus from beginning to end.

So let me ask you this. You bought it before prices hit rock bottom? When was that and at what price? $250 or $300 for a 1080i player with no 6-ch analog output, that had less blockbuster new releases.... and in a few weeks wont ever have another blockbuster releases. So you found value in that?

But dont see the value in a $400 1080p machine with a 40GB hard drive, wifi, internet, Memory card readers, media server capabilities, and will have the ability to play all the new major releases in true high definition?

I thought this thread was about flash & BD?

I thought this thread was about flash & BD?

Old habits die hard.

A kiosk with 5000 titles sounds like a good start. I'd be willing to wait 45 seconds for a hidef movie.

http://www.news.com/Coming-soon-Movies-on-flash-memory-cards/2100-11398_3-6232651.html

Of course even 5000 titles is limiting. Using Amazon rankings to determine who is in and who isn't:

Local Hero--yes
Rain Man--No
Longest Day--yes
Amacord--no
The Birds--yes

But perhaps you could email the kiosk a special order...

There's a reason why scientists and engineers are not business people (no offense to anyone).

That is so so true.......

So let me ask you this. You bought it before prices hit rock bottom? When was that and at what price? $250 or $300 for a 1080i player with no 6-ch analog output, that had less blockbuster new releases.... and in a few weeks wont ever have another blockbuster releases. So you found value in that?


For $289 in June of last year, I thought it was worth the plunge. I don't buy in to the "Full HD" marketing, so 1080i was not an issue. Needed an AVR and upgraded to a HDMI 1.3 receiver for advanced audio codecs. Actually started with the plan to purchase Blu-ray at the time, but decided to wait for the profile situation to sort out. No profile situation at the time with HD DVD. Didn't foresee the format war ending so soon.


But dont see the value in a $400 1080p machine with a 40GB hard drive, wifi, internet, Memory card readers, media server capabilities, and will have the ability to play all the new major releases in true high definition?

I'm sorry, where is that machine? Is it the PS3? If so, I'll consider it when it decodes or bitsreams DTS HD codecs. Seriously, although a game machine with a bluetooth remote is not my dream for Blu-ray.

You come across as rather hostile regarding this whole Blu-ray/HD DVD thing. What exactly is your problem? Congratulations. You were right. You chose the WINNER. Some of us who chose the losing format are just waiting for the value to be there with Blu-ray. It'll be all right. No reason to point out my idiocy when I try to post rationally about where I see value in Blu-ray. After all, my opinion is worth nothing because I'm a fool for my choice to support HD DVD in the first place, right?

As for the statements of the THX Chief Scientist, I find them of little consequence. These days talk is cheaper than ever, and any statement can be overanalyzed, spun, and propagated to make any point, however irrational.

My question is, where are the releases? Where are the 2.0 players? If Blu-ray is to make it big, it will have to make a sincere effort. If they don't to that by the end of the year, then the no one's opinion will matter much at all. Of course, opinions matter very little anyway, don't they?

For $289 in June of last year, I thought it was worth the plunge. I don't buy in to the "Full HD" marketing, so 1080i was not an issue. Needed an AVR and upgraded to a HDMI 1.3 receiver for advanced audio codecs. Actually started with the plan to purchase Blu-ray at the time, but decided to wait for the profile situation to sort out. No profile situation at the time with HD DVD. Didn't foresee the format war ending so soon.




I'm sorry, where is that machine? Is it the PS3? If so, I'll consider it when it decodes or bitsreams DTS HD codecs. Seriously, although a game machine with a bluetooth remote is not my dream for Blu-ray.

You come across as rather hostile regarding this whole Blu-ray/HD DVD thing. What exactly is your problem? Congratulations. You were right. You chose the WINNER. Some of us who chose the losing format are just waiting for the value to be there with Blu-ray. It'll be all right. No reason to point out my idiocy when I try to post rationally about where I see value in Blu-ray. After all, my opinion is worth nothing because I'm a fool for my choice to support HD DVD in the first place, right?

As for the statements of the THX Chief Scientist, I find them of little consequence. These days talk is cheaper than ever, and any statement can be overanalyzed, spun, and propagated to make any point, however irrational.

My question is, where are the releases? Where are the 2.0 players? If Blu-ray is to make it big, it will have to make a sincere effort. If they don't to that by the end of the year, then the no one's opinion will matter much at all. Of course, opinions matter very little anyway, don't they?

1) I bought both HD-DVD and Blu ray. i never had any prejudice against jumping ship, if I thought BD was going to fail.

2) It is irrational to state that you bought a 1080i HD-DVD player for $290. Then turn around and say... you cant see the value in the PS3. Which plays more movies in HD, than HD-DVD.... and will have new releases in HD. Which HD-DVD wont have. Heck, you cant even buy a disc at the local best buy anymore.

The ability to play new HD movies, Wifi, built in hard drive, Media Server, photo viewer, internet access.... those... you cant see the value in. But the 1080i HD-A2 player for $290was packed with value?

3) Does the HD-A2 decode DTS master? No. So why are you holding that against the PS3?

4) I have 2 2.0 profile Blu rays players. One, I bought over a year ago.

1) I bought both HD-DVD and Blu ray. i never had any prejudice against jumping ship, if I thought BD was going to fail.

Although you do not seem to believe me, it is not prejudice that has kept me from buying Blu-ray yet.

2) It is irrational to state that you bought a 1080i HD-DVD player for $290. Then turn around and say... you cant see the value in the PS3. Which plays more movies in HD, than HD-DVD.... and will have new releases in HD. Which HD-DVD wont have. Heck, you cant even buy a disc at the local best buy anymore.

The ability to play new HD movies, Wifi, built in hard drive, Media Server, photo viewer, internet access.... those... you cant see the value in. But the 1080i HD-A2 player for $290was packed with value?

Packed with value? No. Appropriate value to fulfill a need/curiosity about HD optical media? Yes. And obviously, I'm not advocating getting in to HD DVD as a value right now. Since I've explored the HD DVD path, I'm more clear about what I am looking for with Blu-ray. As for the other features of the PS3, I have WiFi Apple TV for media streaming and photo viewing and WiFi Wii for internet access and gaming for the family. I don't need the other PS3 features, and as a Mac only household, some of PS3's features are limited.

It is irrational to say that I'd prefer a dedicated player to a PS3 as my Blu-ray player? I just don't see it that way. Times and thoughts change. Purchasing the HD DVD player filled the need to own HD optical for a time. I'll be fine with getting a Blu-ray player when I see sustainable value in it.


3) Does the HD-A2 decode DTS master? No. So why are you holding that against the PS3?

Your terminology of "holding that against" PS3 makes it seem so emotional. The reality is that I did not fully understand all the advanced codecs when I purchased the A2. During my ownership of the unit, I have only had one disc from which I could not access advanced audio codecs. With Blu-ray, there are many Fox titles that fall into that category.

If HD DVD had succeeded, I would not have purchased another player that did not access DTS HD codecs, so why would I consider it with Blu-ray?

4) I have 2 2.0 profile Blu rays players. One, I bought over a year ago.

Congratulations.

Why the need to evangelize for Blu-ray and PS3? If you're paying attention to what I'm writing, you will see that I am not uninformed and that I fully understand what you are saying. With the options available to me right now and with what will evolve in the next 6 months, one way or the other, Blu-ray is not a great value to me at this time.

Again, these prognostications by industry "experts" are worth absolutely nothing. There is a discussion to be had here about Blu-ray's timing and strategies for expanding their market in light of current and upcoming competition. Trying to persuade everyone that Blu has arrived and should be had by all, mainly through the PS3, is not adding anything to the discussion.

People want what they want. However, I had stated that many people had bought into HD-DVD when prices came crashing through the floor.

To which you responded
I guess it's easy to generalize, isn't it? There's a difference between price and value. And realize, many HD DVD owners got in well before player prices dropped through the floor. And many of us still don't see value in the current BD hardware options. The picture is more complex than you appear to see it.

Inferring that HD-DVD was the value proposition. I just find it curious that you would say something like "Maybe HD-DVD owners dont see value in Blu Ray".... then turn around and tell me you paid $289 for a 1080i HD-DVD player, which has less resolution, is slow as molasses, plays less HD movies, no wifi, no hard disc.. etc.

And now, you are saying that Value didnt lead you to choose HD-DVD... but value is keeping you away from BD. I just find it interesting. That is all.

People want what they want. However, I had stated that many people had bought into HD-DVD when prices came crashing through the floor.

Inferring that HD-DVD was the value proposition. I just find it curious that you would say something like "Maybe HD-DVD owners dont see value in Blu Ray".... then turn around and tell me you paid $289 for a 1080i HD-DVD player, which has less resolution, is slow as molasses, plays less HD movies, no wifi, no hard disc.. etc.

And now, you are saying that Value didnt lead you to choose HD-DVD... but value is keeping you away from BD. I just find it interesting. That is all.

You know, I didn't say value didn't lead me to HD DVD. This is what I said:

Packed with value? No. Appropriate value to fulfill a need/curiosity about HD optical media? Yes. I also said I didn't see value in current BD hardware offerings, not in the format itself.

Look, it's clear that you have trouble with the whole format war situation still. I don't. I purchased HD DVD, enjoyed it, watched it fail, and moved on. I'm planning on moving in to Blu-ray when I find value in the hardware offerings.

This thread interests me because someone is speculating that it's too late for Blu-ray. I have no idea if that's true, but I do not suspect that it is. As one who is waiting for Blu-ray hardware to provide what I'm looking for, discussing the pace of Blu-ray's penetration against current and future competition is of interest. I'm sure our bickering over my purchasing choices is of no interest to anyone else in this thread (if there's anyone else left).

A kiosk with 5000 titles sounds like a good start. I'd be willing to wait 45 seconds for a hidef movie.

http://www.news.com/Coming-soon-Movies-on-flash-memory-cards/2100-11398_3-6232651.html

Of course even 5000 titles is limiting. Using Amazon rankings to determine who is in and who isn't:

Local Hero--yes
Rain Man--No
Longest Day--yes
Amacord--no
The Birds--yes

But perhaps you could email the kiosk a special order...

The companies involved in this are interesting:

If anything, the company has lined up legitimate technology partners. IBM helped it developed the transaction system. The drives come from Seagate Technologies (which has said for about a year that we will see video rental kiosks with hard drives), while Samsung provides the flash memory. Toshiba is fabricating the chips that make up the high-speed interface. Investors include former film execs like Jay Emmett and Lindsay Gardner.

Why are we still using optical discs? This is the future, we should be using move nifty technology such as flash, which obviosuly saves more space and will hold more data. Let's move away from the 90's and think of the future!

No, this is the present. And we 'presently' have BD as our source for HD. DVD is still a success, and BD is just simply an upgrade.

+1

Just because he/she may be the "THX Chief Scientist" doesn't mean he/she knows jack about the consumer market. I really don't see how he could beleive that 50gigs of flash memory will get to the price point of "spinning media" anytime soon. While I beleive it will happen in the future I don't see flash getting large enough and cheap enough for years to come.

It's fine that you have the belief you do. But I don't think the facts are in agreement with you.

I bought 2GB USB memory a year ago on Black Friday (November 2006) -- that's about an 18 month period. They were an outstanding price at $40/each. I can now buy them for $10. That's a 75% drop in ~18 months.

16GB USB flash was 160 and is now routinely selling for ~100. Granted you will always pay a premium for the highest capacity (which is currently 32GB) but with the number of companies getting into the flash memory game (including Intel) I think it will drop to reasonable prices sooner than you do.

My guess? Blu-ray equivalent storage (50GB, realistic size is 64GB) will be at ~$20 by mid 2010, and they haven't even introduced it yet.

information on discs last much longer than flash media. How often have you owned a flash drive or an camera card only to find out it has a limited runtime cycle before it eventually stops working? Am I gonna have to do that after purchaing a $40 flash drive card capable of 50gigs of a movie or movies which if it goes bad I have to shell out another $40. Disc media is gonna be around for a long time and has a much lifetime cycle than a flash drive. I just don't trust the life cyle of flash.

Currently anticipated lifetimes for wear leveled Solid State Disks (a flash hard drive if you will) are measured in years (5-10 is typical) if you are writing upwards of 10GB/day. These do wear leveling. It's not such a stretch to add this to some type of transportable media.

Reading the data doesn't affect the longevity one bit.

The THX lady is not the first to proclaim flash media as the future. And there is already a business model being created by a company in Ireland that will do just what she says - allow consumers to walk into any store with a movie-loaded server and download a HD movie to a 30 GB SDD card in less than a minute. The studios will love it because it is pure profit for them - no disc production required. And for an added fee the consumer will probably be able to buy a license for a one-time rip to a BR burner if he so desires.

Having met and spoken to Laurie Fincham on several occasions, I have to wonder who you're talking about when you say "THX Lady" 'cause Laurie is a guy.

He's a positively brilliant man and highly respected in the audio industry.

My guess? Blu-ray equivalent storage (50GB, realistic size is 64GB) will be at ~$20 by mid 2010, and they haven't even introduced it yet.

I think the key part of your post is, "and they haven't even introduced it yet." Sounds like Pie in the Sky. Whereas BD is already here with set specs and studio support.

How would you define overtakes, more sales ? Sales to the level of DVD at it's peak,head to head sales at some specified later time ?

Taking over the head to head copies sold would be a good starting point. It's either that or revenue.

I think the key part of your post is, "and they haven't even introduced it yet." Sounds like Pie in the Sky. Whereas BD is already here with set specs and studio support.

Are you in the technology industry? I am.

I can currently buy 32GB flash from several sources for a price of about $6/GB. The highest capacity always exacts a cost premium and the 4-8GB sticks are the sweet spot in price/GB.

As I said in another post, we've gone from ~$20/GB to ~$5-6/GB in about 18 months. That's a 50% compounded drop every 9 months. At that pace, which will continue or accelerate as more flash is manufactured, we are talking about 64GB (to be introduced by years end) at the same actual out of pocket cost as 32GB which puts us at $3/GB. Another 9 months? $1.50/GB. 9 Months after that $.75/GB. 9 months after that ~$0.40/GB. So if the pace continues we'll have 64GB at the ~$25 price point.

Cheers,

My guess? Blu-ray equivalent storage (50GB, realistic size is 64GB) will be at ~$20 by mid 2010, and they haven't even introduced it yet.

Media cost will need to cost less than $1 before the studios will adapt a format to replace DVD's or Blu-Ray - the studios will not give any more than a few percentage points to the cost of media for any consumer product. I am sure CD's and DVD costs are no more than a few pennies now and even when the format's where introduced I am sure they were no more that $1 - $2 per unit.

Now I know there have been a few trial runs where albums have been released on CF or SD cards, but they were done as a publicity stunt.

My guess studios are waiting for digital downloads to become accepted where is no additional cost for media and the consumer will pick-up the costs for bandwidth - in this scenario, they get get it all, and it cost next to nothing.

I have seen the promise of solid state drives for years, but let get serious, only in the past 3 months have any major computer manufacture offered a SSD option in their laptops - and you seen what they are charging? The current offerings are no where close is price and capacity to be considered by the mainstream buying public.

These industries need to walk before it can run...

Are you in the technology industry? I am.

I can currently buy 32GB flash from several sources for a price of about $6/GB. The highest capacity always exacts a cost premium and the 4-8GB sticks are the sweet spot in price/GB.

As I said in another post, we've gone from ~$20/GB to ~$5-6/GB in about 18 months. That's a 50% compounded drop every 9 months. At that pace, which will continue or accelerate as more flash is manufactured, we are talking about 64GB (to be introduced by years end) at the same actual out of pocket cost as 32GB which puts us at $3/GB. Another 9 months? $1.50/GB. 9 Months after that $.75/GB. 9 months after that ~$0.40/GB. So if the pace continues we'll have 64GB at the ~$25 price point.

Cheers,

And so what? I don't see any movie studios putting out HD movies on Flash Drives. :rolleyes: Moreover, even if it's on their minds, it will be sometime before they even consider it since we just went through an expensive format war with optical discs. I think Blu-ray would have to bomb big time before the studios would even think about supporting another HD format at this time.

Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX, talks to Home Cinema Choice Magazine about Blu-ray's chances to become a dominant format of the future.

After HD DVDs demise the UK Magazine asked him for a comment. "Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" he told the magazine.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format." he concluded.

Hopefully Lucas Film don't listen too much to their THX department or we might never see Star Wars on a HD disc format like Blu-ray.

Source: Home Cinema Choice Magazine (May 2008)

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/thx-chief-scientist-its-too-late-for-blu-ray/5379
This guy is too funny.
Talk about wet dreams.:D:D

It's fine that you have the belief you do. But I don't think the facts are in agreement with you.

I bought 2GB USB memory a year ago on Black Friday (November 2006) -- that's about an 18 month period. They were an outstanding price at $40/each. I can now buy them for $10. That's a 75% drop in ~18 months.

16GB USB flash was 160 and is now routinely selling for ~100. Granted you will always pay a premium for the highest capacity (which is currently 32GB) but with the number of companies getting into the flash memory game (including Intel) I think it will drop to reasonable prices sooner than you do.

My guess? Blu-ray equivalent storage (50GB, realistic size is 64GB) will be at ~$20 by mid 2010, and they haven't even introduced it yet.

I wonder what the margin is on these, that compared to replication costs of a format that will be maturing by the end of 2010. It seems like (from an outsiders perspective) that this is stretching it to think that by the time the cost is close that all concerned will then be ready to drop everything for another format. I guess the fact that the present audio and video codecs are established might make the transition simpler than it was forom DVD to BD but, I still don't see it happening in less than five years.


Art

I wonder what the margin is on these, that compared to replication costs of a format that will be maturing by the end of 2010. It seems like (from an outsiders perspective) that this is tretching it to think that by the time the cost is close that all concerned will then be ready to drop everything for another format. I guess the fact that the present audio and video codecs are established might make the transition simpler than it was forom DVD to BD but I still don't see it happening in less than five years.


Art


I totally agree. Plus, in five years I just don't see people lining up to dump their HD discs just to move to a stick. It takes more than just a different package to get people to change formats.

I'd imagine we have no idea how all of this will look in 5 years. Things just change too quickly right now. I'm interested in Blu-ray, but only once 2.0 players are out and playing nice with 2.0 discs. Also waiting for sub-$300 prices on 2.0 players and more catalog/smaller releases.

Will Blu-ray make it to my expectations in the next year? It's not clear to me. Meanwhile, we have Warner experimenting with day-and-date HD availability on Apple TV and On Demand. If Vudu, Apple TV, and On Demand continue to expand title selection at their current rates, they will dwarf what is available on Blu-ray within a year.

These download/streaming services already offer the opportunity to provide HD content without the need to produce and distribute hard media. My guess would be that the market will fragment significantly in the next two years. It'll be interesting to see where the studios' end up putting their strongest efforts.

And so what? I don't see any movie studios putting out HD movies on Flash Drives. :rolleyes: Moreover, even if it's on their minds, it will be sometime before they even consider it since we just went through an expensive format war with optical discs. I think Blu-ray would have to bomb big time before the studios would even think about supporting another HD format at this time.

Then you need to be clear on what you define as "Pie in the Sky" -- do you mean 64GB media or do you mean distribution on flash media?

Why do they have to support "another HD format" when the flash could be inserted into a player with a USB memory slot and read from there?

I wonder what the margin is on these, that compared to replication costs of a format that will be maturing by the end of 2010. It seems like (from an outsiders perspective) that this is stretching it to think that by the time the cost is close that all concerned will then be ready to drop everything for another format. I guess the fact that the present audio and video codecs are established might make the transition simpler than it was forom DVD to BD but, I still don't see it happening in less than five years.


Art

Margin on what? Flash memory? There has to be sufficient margin for big hitters like Intel to be getting into the game, even with lowering costs / GB.

Keep in mind that using the more advanced build lines (think 62nm or 45nm) and you start talking about dramatically increasing yield/wafer which lowers cost (and several other factors that aren't germane to this discussion).

Now, is it going to happen? I don't know -- but I don't see it as impossible as others do.

I totally agree. Plus, in five years I just don't see people lining up to dump their HD discs just to move to a stick. It takes more than just a different package to get people to change formats.

Why would it require a different format?

Load it as an iso on the media and a player could have firmware upgraded to read a movie from that media with literally a minimal amount of changes.

NYT tech guy...it's too late for Flash memory chips.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/buying-movies-on-flash-cards-nice-idea-that-doesnt-work/

His not very convincing take, by the time flash could be a player, downloading will have worked out the kinks.

His reasoning-each movie on its own flash chip would be more expensive than buying it on an optical disk. Kiosks? People like a box, it could "easily take an hour" to download.

Margin on what? Flash memory? There has to be sufficient margin for big hitters like Intel to be getting into the game, even with lowering costs / GB.

Keep in mind that using the more advanced build lines (think 62nm or 45nm) and you start talking about dramatically increasing yield/wafer which lowers cost (and several other factors that aren't germane to this discussion).

Now, is it going to happen? I don't know -- but I don't see it as impossible as others do.

The cost of the stick compared to cost of discs on existing lines (by 2010 there will many more I assume). My point is ,will there be a financial incentive to move in that direction or not if there is a confluence of technological advances making flash memory HD movies possible.

Art

NYT tech guy...it's too late for Flash memory chips.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/buying-movies-on-flash-cards-nice-idea-that-doesnt-work/

His not very convincing take, by the time flash could be a player, downloading will have worked out the kinks.

His reasoning-each movie on its own flash chip would be more expensive than buying it on an optical disk. Kiosks? People like a box, it could "easily take an hour" to download.

In the US where VDSL and other very high speed technologies are not the norm, I have sincere doubts that downloading will be viable in the next 5-10 years.

Abroad, where higher speed connections (think 10-20 Mbits/second sustained) it becomes a more tenable solution. At 20 Mbits/second it would take you about 5.5 hours to download the equivalent of a full Blu-ray disc. Until the US gets some infrastructure upgrades it's not viable.

I'm not "antidownload" -- but without some major bandwidth increases it isn't happening.

The cost of the stick compared to cost of discs on existing lines (by 2010 there will many more I assume). My point is ,will there be a financial incentive to move in that direction or not if there is a confluence of technological advances making flash memory HD movies possible.

Art

You mean like players with no moving parts and no laser diode to fail, lower heat, etc?

How about greater reliability so that the defective rate of players is an order of magnitude (or higher) improved.

As for costs to manufacture, it depends on whether we're collecting the sticks as permanent media or using them as rentals. I'd prefer ownership, but I believe (sadly) that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to be the last generation of media ownership.

Cheers,

You mean like players with no moving parts and no laser diode to fail, lower heat, etc?

How about greater reliability so that the defective rate of players is an order of magnitude (or higher) improved.

As for costs to manufacture, it depends on whether we're collecting the sticks as permanent media or using them as rentals. I'd prefer ownership, but I believe (sadly) that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to be the last generation of media ownership.

Cheers,

Funny. I have a DVD player that's 5 years old and CD player that's 15 years old. I also have had numerous CD/DVD players in many computer over the last 15 years. Not once have I ever had a 'laser diode failure' in ANY of those devices. Yet, I've had a couple of memory sticks simply quit working in just the last year or so. There is no real advantage over memory sticks vs. BD that I can see. So I don't see it happening. At least not any time soon. The fact of the matter is; If you wan't high quality, HD movies that you can purchase and keep on a shelf in your home, BD is the way to go. For the present, and forseeable future.

As for costs to manufacture, it depends on whether we're collecting the sticks as permanent media or using them as rentals. I'd prefer ownership, but I believe (sadly) that HD-DVD and Blu-ray are going to be the last generation of media ownership.

Cheers,

This is where posters could be more clear, are they talking about sticks as permanent media or as rentals.

The sticks as permanent media proposition is different (and less likely to succeed) than sticks as rentals.

If you are talking about the price of the media itself, costs of pressing bluray versus cost to make and load stick, then you are talking about sticks as permanent media.

[QUOTE=Rutgar;13526834]There is no real advantage over memory sticks vs. BD that I can see. So I don't see it happening. At least not any time soon. The fact of the matter is; If you wan't high quality, HD movies that you can purchase and keep on a shelf in your home, BD is the way to go. [QUOTE]

The real advantage is for rentals. Why do people think you will have to go to a store, see what they have, and then wait for it to be downloaded. I will be at work and go to a website where I will browse until I find something I want to see. I will have had an amazing number of movies to select from. I will then order it. At lunch I will walk across the street to the kiosk and pick up my movie.

hahaha rugat: what an idiot.

he has a point though. I wouldn't want to be carrying 1 blue ray movie on my flash drive compared to 4-5! the quality of dvd is something i'm already content with. i don't see the need to be raising the bar. it's like getting a newer car when yours works perfectly. i guess it comes down to luxury vs. satisfaction.

Studios wont want this at all.
1) Less people will collect movies. In general(with exceptions, music is different, you listen to the same song many times) people dont collect things that are not tangible.

Stores wont want this.
1) Because it pushes people towards downloads. Stores want people in the stores.

2) Its a hassle. People have to go to stores to download then upload it when they get home? And if they want more movies at once, they have to buy multiple flash drives?

3) People have to remember to take flash drives with them to the store to buy movies? Forget it.

4) What happens when a kiosk breaks? How many kiosks does a store need on say... tuesday when LOTR IV comes out? Are they going to have aisles of Kiosks?

I should come out with an article "Too Late for THX" They really dropped the ball. With newer Lossless audio formats such as TrueHD and DTS-MA... who needs THX post-processing? THX needed to come up with their own lossless audio format early to keep the THX moniker relavent.

Studios wont want this at all.
1) Less people will collect movies. In general(with exceptions, music is different, you listen to the same song many times) people dont collect things that are not tangible.

Stores wont want this.
1) Because it pushes people towards downloads. Stores want people in the stores.

2) Its a hassle. People have to go to stores to download then upload it when they get home? And if they want more movies at once, they have to buy multiple flash drives?

3) People have to remember to take flash drives with them to the store to buy movies? Forget it.

4) What happens when a kiosk breaks? How many kiosks does a store need on say... tuesday when LOTR IV comes out? Are they going to have aisles of Kiosks?

I should come out with an article "Too Late for THX" They really dropped the ball. With newer Lossless audio formats such as TrueHD and DTS-MA... who needs THX post-processing? THX needed to come up with their own lossless audio format early to keep the THX moniker relavent.

1) This wont stop people from collecting movies. Any movie they buy they will simply upload to thier home server/mass storage device.

2&3&4) Hassle? What hassle? The flash drive will be on your key ring and if you seen most peoples keyring having 2 or 3 on it would'nt be a big deal. As for going to the store just for the movie. Well, since the kiosk will likely be in supermarkets and/or malls folks will just hit them while the're out doing something else. Also, since the service would most likely be availible online as well there is no need to worry about broken kiosk or aisles of kiosk. Anyway, getting the film would be alot easier through DDL then it would be driving down to the local video store and standing in line or waiting for your rental to arrive in the mail when LoTR IV comes out.

1) This wont stop people from collecting movies. Any movie they buy they will simply upload to thier home server/mass storage device.

2&3&4) Hassle? What hassle? The flash drive will be on your key ring and if you seen most peoples keyring having 2 or 3 on it would'nt be a big deal. As for going to the store just for the movie. Well, since the kiosk will likely be in supermarkets and/or malls folks will just hit them while the're out doing something else. Also, since the service would most likely be availible online as well there is no need to worry about broken kiosk or aisles of kiosk. Anyway, getting the film would be alot easier through DDL then it would be driving down to the local video store and standing in line or waiting for your rental to arrive in the mail when LoTR IV comes out.

1) If the service is available online... then why do people need the store? Or the kiosk?

Retailers dont want this.

2) not everyone wants a bunch of items hanging off their keyring. Nor do people want to wait in line to download a movie. Then have to upload when they get home. And then there is the question of how to get it to other TVs? Media server? Is that something everyone would be comfortable setting up. Or do people have to download to flash and then reupload in their rooms.

Its not exactly Easy. Its.... a hassle compared to walking into a store and picking up a disc off the shelf. And if you want to watch in a different room, pick up the disc and walk to the other room.

Studios wont want this at all..
Studios didn't want VHS, yet we got VHS. Studios didn't want DVD yet we got DVD.
1) Less people will collect movies. In general(with exceptions, music is different, you listen to the same song many times) people dont collect things that are not tangible.
People collect movies because they intend to watch them many times.

Stores wont want this.
1) Because it pushes people towards downloads. Stores want people in the stores. . As more of these people become downloaders, stores will want them.

Additionally, a "store" could just be a kiosk at Starbucks or a tiny storefront next to the Taco del Mar in your office building.


2) Its a hassle. People have to go to stores to download then upload it when they get home? And if they want more movies at once, they have to buy multiple flash drives?. Once again with the "stores". I won't have to drive to Blockbuster to get a movie downloaded (although I will be able to soon enough). Multiple disks, oh no thats 5 or ten bucks!


3) People have to remember to take flash drives with them to the store to buy movies? Forget it. . This is your weakest point.


4) What happens when a kiosk breaks? How many kiosks does a store need on say... tuesday when LOTR IV comes out? Are they going to have aisles of Kiosks?. You could order ahead of time, the Hobbit will be waiting for you.


I should come out with an article "Too Late for THX"

Yes, that would really put the hurt on him...

Studios didn't want VHS, yet we got VHS. Studios didn't want DVD yet we got DVD.

People collect movies because they intend to watch them many times.

As more of these people become downloaders, stores will want them.

Additionally, a "store" could just be a kiosk at Starbucks or a tiny storefront next to the Taco del Mar in your office building.


Once again with the "stores". I won't have to drive to Blockbuster to get a movie downloaded (although I will be able to soon enough). Multiple disks, oh no thats 5 or ten bucks!


This is your weakest point.


You could order ahead of time, the Hobbit will be waiting for you.




Yes, that would really put the hurt on him...

1) Ah, but you are wrong. How many people have discs that they have never watched. Or how many people have collections of 500+discs, where they only watch the movie 1 time. A lot of people.

If they dont have a tangleble disc... then why buy, vs renting?

2) Downloading is different than the topic at hand. Which is these flash kiosks.

3) Retailers dont want this because... Hello... as you pointed out, you dont need to go to a store for movies. you can pick up a movie at the kiosk at the corner or download it. Retailers dont want this, they want you in stores looking at other things to buy.

4) how are you going to order aheard of time? You are going to take someone elses used and abused flash card? No thanks. Thats what... renting is for. IE less money for studios, less money for retailers, more hassles for consumers.

Its just not a good idea.

1) Ah, but you are wrong..
Wouldn't be the first time
If they dont have a tangleble disc... then why buy, vs renting?.
Why do people buy music without the tangible disks. And aren't these non tangible disk music buying people a good target market for flash movies?

2) Downloading is different than the topic at hand. Which is these flash kiosks. . Fear of downloaders stealing business will drive download like offerings.


3) Retailers dont want this because... Hello... as you pointed out, you dont need to go to a store for movies. you can pick up a movie at the kiosk at the corner or download it. Retailers dont want this, they want you in stores looking at other things to buy. . Retailers didn't want downloadable music and yet it happened.


4) how are you going to order aheard of time? You are going to take someone elses used and abused flash card? . What exactly can you do to a flash card?

Its just not a good idea.
You don't have to participate if you don't want to.

1) If the service is available online... then why do people need the store? Or the kiosk?

Retailers dont want this.

2) not everyone wants a bunch of items hanging off their keyring. Nor do people want to wait in line to download a movie. Then have to upload when they get home. And then there is the question of how to get it to other TVs? Media server? Is that something everyone would be comfortable setting up. Or do people have to download to flash and then reupload in their rooms.

Its not exactly Easy. Its.... a hassle compared to walking into a store and picking up a disc off the shelf. And if you want to watch in a different room, pick up the disc and walk to the other room.

You are just being silly. Some people, like you, just don't like change. But change will come wether you like it or not. DDL is the future. The near future. Get ready.

I understand where the THX guy is coming from, as flash memory is getting ultra cheap now (just bought a 16GB SD card from newegg for $80), but I do think he's wrong about blu-ray. I think all it's going to take for blu-ray to take hold is the elusive sub $200 player. I still know lots of people who have nice HDTVs who want blu-ray, but will not spend $300-400 on a player (or $30/disc).

edit:
As far as downloads goes, I'll throw in the same $0.02 I always toss out there (as if anyone cares :P): As long as the general population can hop in the car, drive to the store, pick up a blu-ray movie, swing by and grab some grub, head home, and watch the movie before they can complete a 30GB download, physical media will reign supreme.

As far as downloads goes, I'll throw in the same $0.02 I always toss out there (as if anyone cares :P): As long as the general population can hop in the car, drive to the store, pick up a blu-ray movie, swing by and grab some grub, head home, and watch the movie before they can complete a 30GB download, physical media will reign supreme.


But right now I can start a 720p download, go to the fridge, come back to the couch and start watching. For rentals, there'll be no need for discs a lot sooner than most realize. If you're just renting, why would the studios want to manufacture and distribute discs? Take away a significant portion of the rental market, and there's less need for physical media than there was before.

I understand where the THX guy is coming from, as flash memory is getting ultra cheap now (just bought a 16GB SD card from newegg for $80), but I do think he's wrong about blu-ray.

If you had spent that $80 on blank DVDs you would have at least a few terrabytes of storage space.

I download whole albums.

Now Now, we aren't including piracy as a legitimate future way of obtaining media :) j/k not accusing you of anything.

Which personally I believe that flash cards will contribute to making piracy easier.

Downloading iTunes or most of those services, is not what Blu or HD is about, they are far from lossless. So they will never disapper and might be popular for the 480P user, but my opinion is that HD will get larger i.e. 1440 and 3D, media will tend to advance. Downloading 50gigs doesn appeal to my current supplier Rogers with a 25gig cap/month i think, then charging after that to a max of $25 extra.

Devils advocate to that is...I wouldnt go to a store to load the flash drive, when I could pay online then download it, it seems like it would be a killer to rental places.

(I see a studio selling a movie on a flash media, one per city, then the buyer copies it for the rest of the neighborhood, encryption or not won't matter)

Quoter"edit:
As far as downloads goes, I'll throw in the same $0.02 I always toss out there (as if anyone cares :P): As long as the general population can hop in the car, drive to the store, pick up a blu-ray movie, swing by and grab some grub, head home, and watch the movie before they can complete a 30GB download, physical media will reign supreme."


I agree.

Note the comment up a few about the 720P download....While I agree sort of, that is not the target for Blu (or HD) it is 1080P. That is what the Blu buyer has bought it for. 720 is third place in a race. Good for some but not for most, else why would we all be buying/spending more, on 1080P sets, if we were not going to use them.

Just to add a little specificity to the discussion that flash movies are not conceptual - http://www.portomedia.com/.

Wouldn't be the first time

Why do people buy music without the tangible disks. And aren't these non tangible disk music buying people a good target market for flash movies?

Fear of downloaders stealing business will drive download like offerings.


Retailers didn't want downloadable music and yet it happened.


What exactly can you do to a flash card?


You don't have to participate if you don't want to.

2) As I said... people listen to music over and over. Usually, they dont buy just to listen once and keep. Many people collect movies. And buy, even though they may watch once or twice.

3) Retailers didnt want Download music, Studios didnt want it, Many Artists dont want it. It happened because piracy ran rampant. These days, its so easy to catch people.

4) Uh, you can scratch it up, or crush it, while its hanging off your keychain. You can drop it in the rain, trying to open your car door. There are a lot of unsanitary people out there.

5) These download Kiosks.. you cannot participate in anyway. Its a stupid idea that wont go anywhere. I can understand downloads taking off in the future... but kiosks.... come on. Thats just stupid

2) 5) These download Kiosks.. you cannot participate in anyway. Its a stupid idea that wont go anywhere. I can understand downloads taking off in the future... but kiosks.... come on. Thats just stupid

What I don't get is how you can dismiss this idea as "stupid" when there are obviously some very smart people willing to invest in the idea. Besides just throwing out criticisms could you offer an argument for this being "stupid" and what your qualifications are to make such a claim?
And "unsanitary people"????

Laurie Fincham, Chief Scientist at THX, talks to Home Cinema Choice Magazine about Blu-ray's chances to become a dominant format of the future.

After HD DVDs demise the UK Magazine asked him for a comment. "Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" he told the magazine.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format." he concluded.

Hopefully Lucas Film don't listen too much to their THX department or we might never see Star Wars on a HD disc format like Blu-ray.

Source: Home Cinema Choice Magazine (May 2008)

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/thx-chief-scientist-its-too-late-for-blu-ray/5379
That's a matter of opinion and some opinions don't matter. :D

What I don't get is how you can dismiss this idea as "stupid" when there are obviously some very smart people willing to invest in the idea. Besides just throwing out criticisms could you offer an argument for this being "stupid" and what your qualifications are to make such a claim?
And "unsanitary people"????

Having this thing called "Common sense" tells me this idea is stupid.

1) Who are these people investing in flash media download kiosks? Its not even as convinient as buying a Disc or downloading. Whats the point?

2) In your lifetime... you have you never seen a product and thought "What a stupid idea". Have you ever seen a movie trailer and thought "Who produced the funding for that". Or do you automatically assume that every idea produced is good because someone produced the funding for it?

3) Who wants to trade in something they bought new... for a used one. Who knows what the previous owner did with it. They could have used it too sift through Dog Poop. Is that what you want? Pay for a new product... only to trade it in a week later for one that has someone elses germs all over it?

Finally a forward thinking scientist. Optical discs are so 90's ...

I worked on memory stick movie transports about 2 years ago. Allot of stuff I work on is 3-5 years out. Flash movie distribution is coming people, maybe by 2009 even.
Let's just hope the #$%*# DRM restrictions won't come with it, and that I can watch it after 24 hours has passed, and that's it's not Monday afternoon at 3:00pm, and that there's not a full moon that night, and that my portable device doesn't have to be tethered to my PC, and that.... you get the point. I'll take my optical disc for the time-being, thank you very much.

Note the comment up a few about the 720P download....While I agree sort of, that is not the target for Blu (or HD) it is 1080P. That is what the Blu buyer has bought it for. 720 is third place in a race. Good for some but not for most, else why would we all be buying/spending more, on 1080P sets, if we were not going to use them.

720p downloads are here now. That does not mean anything for the future as compression codecs improve and bandwidth increases. I'll be surprised if 1080p and DD+ don't exist for downloads in the relatively near future.

The point I was trying to make was really about rental delivery. There is great incentive to have downloads work and be profitable for rentals. With no disc to produce and distribute, the margins will increase and inventory control will not be an issue.

As for the poster who said Blu-ray is about lossless, it really isn't. For audio, yes, but obviously, the video is nowhere near lossless. It's all about degrees of compression. Right now Blu-ray has the advantage, but digital storage and services have much more opportunity for dynamic upgrades as technology improves. Your computer can play codecs that did not exist when it was designed and manufactured, and there are few limits to future possibilities. Of course bandwidth will do nothing but increase as time goes by. The same cannot be said of players for finalized standards like DVD, HD DVD, and Blu-ray.

Just an opinion. It just seems to me that things are moving much faster than they ever have, and I don't think anyone can really tell what home media will look like in 3-5 years.

Having this thing called "Common sense" tells me this idea is stupid.
I don't suppose you are familiar with the Rumpole of the Old Bailey series?

1) Who are these people investing in flash media download kiosks? Its not even as convinient as buying a Disc or downloading. Whats the point?
If downloading at home was fast I would agree it would be more convenient. However buying a disc would not be as convenient for many. Many people work downtown in large office buildings where a kiosk could be just an elevator ride away.


2) In your lifetime... you have you never seen a product and thought "What a stupid idea". ?
Yes I have. Uncompressed audio on Blu-ray discs.

3) Who wants to trade in something they bought new... for a used one. Who knows what the previous owner did with it. They could have used it too sift through Dog Poop I think the days when people used flash cards to sift through Dog Poop are well behind us, I could be wrong though.

They could have used it too sift through Dog Poop. Is that what you want? Pay for a new product... only to trade it in a week later for one that has someone elses germs all over it?

Well, I guess that answers the "Common Sense" question. Thanks.

At lunch today I walked over to Borders Books and Music to look for a CD. Upstairs where they have their music and dvds there has been quite the change. Whole sections of music have been downsized and moved, rows of cd holders empty, the wooden carcasses of CD display cases sitting on the floor. Curiously, while the number of CDs took a hit, their prices didn't.

And did DVD or Bluray get any of this new found space? Nope, not a bit. Maybe later, but I doubt it. They just set out some more tables with remainder books on them.

Well, I guess that answers the "Common Sense" question. Thanks.

If you like paying for new prices... only to trade it in for someone elses used crap... Thats up to you. But when I pay for new products, I dont want someone elses used junk.

If you paid full price for a cell phone, would you want to trade your cellphone in every few days... for someone elses used phone(same make and model)?

But right now I can start a 720p download, go to the fridge, come back to the couch and start watching. For rentals, there'll be no need for discs a lot sooner than most realize. If you're just renting, why would the studios want to manufacture and distribute discs? Take away a significant portion of the rental market, and there's less need for physical media than there was before.
I'm not going to argue with you, but in true bandwidth available, I can drive to the store and get a movie faster than you can download it. Streaming a 720p movie with arguable quality vs watching a blu-ray disc at 1080p are two completely different things.

If you had spent that $80 on blank DVDs you would have at least a few terrabytes of storage space.
But that few terabytes of space contained in that giant cylinder of discs doesn't fit on a 1" square x 1mm card. Nor does it fit into my new camera (what I bought the card for).

I don't understand some people in this thread's resistance to the idea of a movie kiosk where you download a movie to a flash card. What aspect of it seems so far fetched? We already have automated DVD movie rental machines all over the place, we have flash cards getting enormous very quickly for very cheap, and the hardware needed wouldn't be all that expensive. Hell, my Panny Blu-ray player already has a SD card slot I can stick in it to play videos. I don't think flash (or downloads for that matter) will come out fast enough to stomp out blu-ray as a format, but IMHO it is definitely coming in the next 5-10 yrs and some type of memory based storage device will definitely surpass optical discs.

I don't understand some people in this thread's resistance to the idea of a movie kiosk where you download a movie to a flash card. What aspect of it seems so far fetched? We already have automated DVD movie rental machines all over the place, we have flash cards getting enormous very quickly for very cheap, and the hardware needed wouldn't be all that expensive. Hell, my Panny Blu-ray player already has a SD card slot I can stick in it to play videos. I don't think flash (or downloads for that matter) will come out fast enough to stomp out blu-ray as a format, but IMHO it is definitely coming in the next 5-10 yrs and some type of memory based storage device will definitely surpass optical discs.

It seems to me that someone took all the negatives from VOD.... and all the negatives from Blu ray/disc media and combined it into one. It doesnt make sense. You still have to go to the store... and now you have to download after you get to the store? WTH?

1) Wouldnt it be easier just to use VOD.

2) So now you have that SD card that can play movies from your panasonic. Now you want a new movie.... but you only have the one card. Well, what next?

It seems to me that someone took all the negatives from VOD.... and all the negatives from Blu ray/disc media and combined it into one. It doesnt make sense. You still have to go to the store... and now you have to download after you get to the store? WTH?

1) Wouldnt it be easier just to use VOD.

2) So now you have that SD card that can play movies from your panasonic. Now you want a new movie.... but you only have the one card. Well, what next?

I think you're kindof missing the point. It's a rental market. Like going to Blockbuster is now, except you don't have to worry about the movie being in stock. Like using Netflix now...except you don't have to wait around for the mail or deal with "Very Long Waits" in your queue. Like using VOD is now, except with better quality(?) and not needing a high-speed connection or comcast service (possibly cheaper too?). Less convenient compared to VOD, but again, VOD tends to be limited by service/connection speeds/selection more than the kiosk concept would be.

As for the card, that's like asking "I rented a movie on BR or DVD, but now I want to watch another movie. Well what next?" Well, you return it to the store and rent another one, right? Just like you would return to the kiosk and get another movie.

I'd want to have 2 or 3 movies at once, so either a card that could hold that many or 3 cards would work fine for me. If I could swing by and grab any movie I wanted to watch on the way home, I would use it. You know, cause it sucks when the wife IM's you and says she wants to curl up in front of the TV with some wine and watch a romantic movie (cause it always gets her in the mood), but all you have at home from Netflix is Die Hard 4 and Day of the Dead.

I think you're kindof missing the point. It's a rental market. Like going to Blockbuster is now, except you don't have to worry about the movie being in stock. Like using Netflix now...except you don't have to wait around for the mail or deal with "Very Long Waits" in your queue. Like using VOD is now, except with better quality(?) and not needing a high-speed connection or comcast service (possibly cheaper too?). Less convenient compared to VOD, but again, VOD tends to be limited by service/connection speeds/selection more than the kiosk concept would be.

As for the card, that's like asking "I rented a movie on BR or DVD, but now I want to watch another movie. Well what next?" Well, you return it to the store and rent another one, right? Just like you would return to the kiosk and get another movie.

I'd want to have 2 or 3 movies at once, so either a card that could hold that many or 3 cards would work fine for me. If I could swing by and grab any movie I wanted to watch on the way home, I would use it. You know, cause it sucks when the wife IM's you and says she wants to curl up in front of the TV with some wine and watch a romantic movie (cause it always gets her in the mood), but all you have at home from Netflix is Die Hard 4 and Day of the Dead.

Rental market? Thats not the way it was explained by the chief scientist at THX. THe chief scientist explained it as a replacement for optical media... hence the title "Its too late for Blu Ray"

So lets say impala bought a download flash movie and watched it on his Panasonic... now he wants another movie. What does he have to do next?

Rental market? Thats not the way it was explained by the chief scientist at THX. THe chief scientist explained it as a replacement for optical media... hence the title "Its too late for Blu Ray"

So lets say impala bought a download flash movie and watched it on his Panasonic... now he wants another movie. What does he have to do next?

If you would have read the original article, this threads links and thought about your responses it would have been obvious to you what the conversation is about.

It was explained that way by the THX dude, the link to portomedia said the same thing and most other posters have settled on rental as the viable alternative. Even though the first sentence of your most recent post ackowledges we've been talking about rental you follow up with a question about purchasing a download. Dude, get in the game!

If you would have read the original article, this threads links and thought about your responses it would have been obvious to you what the conversation is about.

It was explained that way by the THX dude, the link to portomedia said the same thing and most other posters have settled on rental as the viable alternative. Even though the first sentence of your most recent post ackowledges we've been talking about rental you follow up with a question about purchasing a download. Dude, get in the game!

Hmmm, strange I havent seen any post stating "The THX scientist is wrong, this is not viable replacement for Disc based media... the consensus is that this flash based downloads are only viable for the rental market."

If thats the case, perhaps a new thread should be created. Because the Original post on this thread is talking about "Flash media & kiosks" being a replacement for disc based media.

This entire thread is hilarious. Who would of thought so many Blu-Ray zealots would rush right over here and claim idiocy, doom, and gloom in basic fear of a superior technology moving in on their precious winner of the most recent "format wars".

Personally, I am all about what is best for the consumers and what offers the most flexibility. If flash media can overtake Blu-Ray in price, it definately has Blu-Ray beat in features and convenience. I for one can at least keep an open mind about it.

^^^

Promoting and expounding the virtues of a service that doesn't exist over one that does is what is truly hilarious.

Rental market? Thats not the way it was explained by the chief scientist at THX. THe chief scientist explained it as a replacement for optical media... hence the title "Its too late for Blu Ray"

So lets say impala bought a download flash movie and watched it on his Panasonic... now he wants another movie. What does he have to do next?
I don't think download flash movies are meant for the collector - unlike many of us HD/BD fans. It's more meant for viewing within some restricted timeframe. And, quite possibly if not viewed within a certain timeframe or days could become inactive. That's my big complaint with DL movies. There's just way to much DRM attached by the studios to protect their precious content. We really never do 'own' the movie, just the media its stored on or time-restricted DL file. Hopefully, this will improve with time as we are finally seeing with MP3s(aside from the bitrate issue). Many are removing the DRM. The studios are finally getting it. However, I personally still like to buy CD, as I can then encode them in any format I want, burn as many CDs, move from PC to PC, stream and all the rest. The DRM paradigm doesn't always easily(hardly ever) allow for this kind of 'file' sharing and hence we are bound to a single PC or portable device. Personally, I have no interest in DL movies. I know they're coming, but having a physical disc in hand(or SDHC card when they become cheap and ubiquitous) is the way I prefer to go.

This entire thread is hilarious. Who would of thought so many Blu-Ray zealots would rush right over here and claim idiocy, doom, and gloom in basic fear of a superior technology moving in on their precious winner of the most recent "format wars".

Personally, I am all about what is best for the consumers and what offers the most flexibility. If flash media can overtake Blu-Ray in price, it definately has Blu-Ray beat in features and convenience. I for one can at least keep an open mind about it.

Well, I for one am not a 'Blue-ray zealot'. I was format neutral in the 'war' from beginning to end. What I'm for is 1080p HD. Period. And right now BD is the ONLY source available for movies and TV shows at this quality level. The THX engineer that is claiming that people are going to skip BD and go straight to memory sticks (which is what this 'hilarious thread' is about) is talking totally out of his bunghole.

Hmmm, strange I havent seen any post stating "The THX scientist is wrong, this is not viable replacement for Disc based media... the consensus is that this flash based downloads are only viable for the rental market."

If thats the case, perhaps a new thread should be created. Because the Original post on this thread is talking about "Flash media & kiosks" being a replacement for disc based media.

Actually, the original post and the THX dude are talking about the replacement of one disc based media, DVD, by another disc based media, Bluray.

Flash doesn't have to be, as you put it, a viable replacement, for it to be too late for bluray. If the rental business moves from disks, both DVD and Bluray, to downloads/kiosks, do you really think the business of selling both DVDs and Blurays will flourish?

Can you imagine a day when you go to that "store" you keep mentioning and there will be aisle after aisle of DVDs, followed by aisle after aisle of Blurays with the exact same movie titles, only with a bluray sticker on them?

I don't think download flash movies are meant for the collector - unlike many of us HD/BD fans. It's more meant for viewing within some restricted timeframe. And, quite possibly if not viewed within a certain timeframe or days could become inactive. That's my big complaint with DL movies. There's just way to much DRM attached by the studios to protect their precious content. We really never do 'own' the movie, just the media its stored on or time-restricted DL file. Hopefully, this will improve with time as we are finally seeing with MP3s(aside from the bitrate issue). Many are removing the DRM. The studios are finally getting it. However, I personally still like to buy CD, as I can then encode them in any format I want, burn as many CDs, move from PC to PC, stream and all the rest. The DRM paradigm doesn't always easily(hardly ever) allow for this kind of 'file' sharing and hence we are bound to a single PC or portable device. Personally, I have no interest in DL movies. I know they're coming, but having a physical disc in hand(or SDHC card when they become cheap and ubiquitous) is the way I prefer to go.

I can understand it working for the Rental market. Though that would present issues as well. (IE having special players with the capability to play USB movies)

As stated by the THX scientist though... flash would displace disc based media. That I dont see happening. Downloads..may take a large chunk in the future... if they get their acts together.... and bandwidth increases

Actually, the original post and the THX dude are talking about the replacement of one disc based media, DVD, by another disc based media, Bluray.

Flash doesn't have to be, as you put it, a viable replacement, for it to be too late for bluray. If the rental business moves from disks, both DVD and Bluray, to downloads/kiosks, do you really think the business of selling both DVDs and Blurays will flourish?

Can you imagine a day when you go to that "store" you keep mentioning and there will be aisle after aisle of DVDs, followed by aisle after aisle of Blurays with the exact same movie titles, only with a bluray sticker on them?

Netflix is pretty convinient and cheap, it put a hurt on Blockbuster... but not even a dent on DVD sales... maybe a rock chip at most. These DVD kiosks with $1/night rentals are at all the Grocery stores in my area.... DVD sales still chugging along.

Some people are renters, some people are buyers. Some people lease cars, some people buy them. It is unlikely that all buyers would just disappear because these kiosks appear.

Rental Flash media has another added detriment. People dont have players to read it. These movies will most cetainly need some sort of hardware DRM to keep people from copying it forever. Which means people will have to pay extra for functionality dedicated to rentals.

And another strike against flash based rentals is VOD. Which is even more convinient than downloading to flash. Why do you need Flash rentals when VOD is closer and more convinient than Flash based kiosks?

It seems to me that someone took all the negatives from VOD.... and all the negatives from Blu ray/disc media and combined it into one. It doesnt make sense. You still have to go to the store... and now you have to download after you get to the store? WTH?
It doesn't make much sense to equate "download from the internet" to "downlaod from a device". Obviously the entire movie would already be on the kiosk, you would just be copying it to your card. Or hell if the memory cards get really cheap, they'd have a bunch of cards already there.

1) Wouldnt it be easier just to use VOD.
"easier" is very subjective. Some would consider time a more valuable commodity than convenience. Others may not. Some may have a video store right down the street, others may not. Some might not have access to a high speed internet connection. There are lots of factors to consider:
1. What happens when you want to watch a movie you've purchased via VOD in a different room in the house, or take it to a buddy's house?
2. What happens when your box takes a crap, do you have to re-DL all the movies you've already bought? Or are you just SOL?

2) So now you have that SD card that can play movies from your panasonic. Now you want a new movie.... but you only have the one card. Well, what next?
Get another card?

Think of the possibilities here. There's already a huge infrastructure in place in netflix/blockbuster/etc for mailing movies. It's caught on very well. Now tell netflix and all their users that the media will be even cheaper to mail, and you no longer have to worry about scratched discs. Sounds very appealing IMHO. Downloads simply won't have the bandwidth to bring us a 1080p movie with one of the newer audio codecs. Not for a long time. There is zero incentive for ISPs to pump 100s of megabits to every home with an HDTV. And even if that was possible, are people going to pay netflix $5/mo to rent 3 memory card movies, or are they going to pay $100/mo for a fast enough internet connection, then another $5/movie on top of that to rent/buy them via VOD, where they don't even physically own anything they bought?

Rental Flash media has another added detriment. People dont have players to read it. These movies will most cetainly need some sort of hardware DRM to keep people from copying it forever. Which means people will have to pay extra for functionality dedicated to rentals.
I don't understand your argument. Both of these are strikes against VOD too. How many people out there have the hardware necessary to get VOD? Or do you expect them to sit in front of the computer and watch movies? And how would VOD not need some kind of DRM as well?

And another strike against flash based rentals is VOD. Which is even more convinient than downloading to flash. Why do you need Flash rentals when VOD is closer and more convinient than Flash based kiosks?
It's more convenient right now to use VOD than renting via netflix or buying a DVD, so how come it hasn't taken those over yet?

It's more convenient right now to use VOD than renting via netflix or buying a DVD, so how come it hasn't taken those over yet?

Oh, oH... me, me! ;) One word... Quality.

Netflix is pretty convinient and cheap, it put a hurt on Blockbuster... but not even a dent on DVD sales... maybe a rock chip at most. These DVD kiosks with $1/night rentals are at all the Grocery stores in my area.... DVD sales still chugging along.


I don't see the word chugging used here...

...the DVD - the main engine of growth between 1999 and 2004. In the past two years, DVD revenues dropped by 11%, to $11.1bn. "It is undeniably true that DVD revenue, which had been responsible for the big boom that has happened in the past few years, has plateaued and now gone into decline," says Michael Gubbins of Screen International magazine.

New Rules for a New Economy

It is not immediately apparent where the revenue to replace slipping DVD sales will come from. It seems unlikely that consumers will pay the same amount for a download. Still, Gubbins thinks the current financial state of play will lead the studios to push more quickly into new forms of media. "I think we will see an acceleration into things like video on demand and downloading your own content. They are small at the moment and they have been ke pt artificially small. No one will risk the existing revenues when they can't yet be sure of new media. But I think that there will be a lot more attention and a lot more of a push to accelerate this new world and to make it happen."

http://film.guardian.co.uk/features/featurepages/0,,2219231,00.html

Oh, oH... me, me! ;) One word... Quality.

Actually, I can give up some quality (HD-Lite) if the selection was better and it was more affordable. I'm considering AppleTV, but kindof waiting for more movies and I wish it was more affordable (I'd take 15 movies a month for $30 in a heartbeat...maybe even $35....$40 would be pushing it though).

^^^

Promoting and expounding the virtues of a service that doesn't exist over one that does is what is truly hilarious.Kinda like supporting alternatives to fossil fuels? Jeez, open you mind friend.

Kinda like supporting alternatives to fossil fuels? Jeez, open you mind friend.
Well....there are actually some alternatives to fossil fuel.

When I went to BB and the movie rental store this week I couldn't find the 50gb usb device to hold even 1 movie nor the kiosk to download from... which is ok since I don't have a device to play back on my HDTV.

Prior planning will be required and it appears nothing is in the pipeline except dreams.

It doesn't make much sense to equate "download from the internet" to "downlaod from a device". Obviously the entire movie would already be on the kiosk, you would just be copying it to your card. Or hell if the memory cards get really cheap, they'd have a bunch of cards already there.


"easier" is very subjective. Some would consider time a more valuable commodity than convenience. Others may not. Some may have a video store right down the street, others may not. Some might not have access to a high speed internet connection. There are lots of factors to consider:
1. What happens when you want to watch a movie you've purchased via VOD in a different room in the house, or take it to a buddy's house?
2. What happens when your box takes a crap, do you have to re-DL all the movies you've already bought? Or are you just SOL?


Get another card?

Think of the possibilities here. There's already a huge infrastructure in place in netflix/blockbuster/etc for mailing movies. It's caught on very well. Now tell netflix and all their users that the media will be even cheaper to mail, and you no longer have to worry about scratched discs. Sounds very appealing IMHO. Downloads simply won't have the bandwidth to bring us a 1080p movie with one of the newer audio codecs. Not for a long time. There is zero incentive for ISPs to pump 100s of megabits to every home with an HDTV. And even if that was possible, are people going to pay netflix $5/mo to rent 3 memory card movies, or are they going to pay $100/mo for a fast enough internet connection, then another $5/movie on top of that to rent/buy them via VOD, where they don't even physically own anything they bought?

1) USB flash cards are not "That" fast. If you are talking 1080P high quality movies,you are talking 20-25GB. You still have to download from the kiosk to your Flash drive. If you figure 10minutes for 25GB(which is currently not possible with USB 2.0).... how long do you think you will have to wait in line at a kiosk when a big hit is released? Will they make sacrifices in quality for space or speed? If VOD is any indication, quality takes a backseat to speed/bandwidth.

You could use your 360 or comcast for VOD and watch low bandwidth HD. by that time.

Or you could have picked up 5 or 10 blu ray discs or DVDs and shopped around for a while... instead of waiting at a kiosk. Unless you think there will be an attendant waiting at the kiosks.

1) USB flash cards are not "That" fast. If you are talking 1080P high quality movies,you are talking 20-25GB. You still have to download from the kiosk to your Flash drive. If you figure 10minutes for 25GB(which is currently not possible with USB 2.0).... how long do you think you will have to wait in line at a kiosk when a big hit is released?

Why am I waiting in line again?

I can order Chicken Cashew from the Thai place across the street right now on line and walk over to pick it up ten minutes later. Why won't I be able to do the same with a movie downloaded to a flash card?

Why am I waiting in line again?

I can order Chicken Cashew from the Thai place across the street right now on line and walk over to pick it up ten minutes later. Why won't I be able to do the same with a movie downloaded to a flash card?

Again, why would you want to? It's just as easy to buy what's currently available. A nice shiney disc.

Actually, the original post and the THX dude are talking about the replacement of one disc based media, DVD, by another disc based media, Bluray.

Flash doesn't have to be, as you put it, a viable replacement, for it to be too late for bluray. If the rental business moves from disks, both DVD and Bluray, to downloads/kiosks, do you really think the business of selling both DVDs and Blurays will flourish?

Can you imagine a day when you go to that "store" you keep mentioning and there will be aisle after aisle of DVDs, followed by aisle after aisle of Blurays with the exact same movie titles, only with a bluray sticker on them?

Yeah, DVD sales have slumped. There is a lot of competition for your time.... bandwidth is fast enough piracy a format war. Plus most of the blockbusters from last year were third installments. Spiderman, pirates, shrek, oceans Tokyo drift. And most were panned compared to previous installments from years. For last year, sales were down overall 2%

Which isnt a sign that rentals is going to make owning movies a thing of the past.

DVD sales are not increasing. Which is why they want a new form of media.

There seems to be accelerating technology in this area and maybe we underestimate how fast flash prices are coming down. I'd expect to be able to get a 128 GB pen drive for under $50 in less than 5 years. And even with the current technology it should be possible to design a 'high speed dump' interface on the other end of the card that writes multiple banks at once for a many times speed-up.

However it is competing with home downloads and you can probably stream full HD pretty easily once everybody has 20+ MBPS broadband, not too far away.

But I'm still guessing it's BD for the collectors for awhile, though I'm not one anymore.

Should be interesting.

- Tom

1) USB flash cards...I'm not talking about USB. SD flash cards of the future are what I'm talking about. The flash card I just bought can transfer at 6MB/s (big B). Still, of course they'd have to get faster, but like I said I'm sure it'd be easy/cheap enough to just have the cards already there just like they do DVDs now, except you can fit like 20x as many into the same space ;). It's not that drastic of a change, just swap DVD for memory card and you're done. No more scratched discs, less overhead, easier distribution, larger, higher quality movies.

1) USB flash cards...You could use your 360 or comcast for VOD and watch low bandwidth HD. by that time.[/quote]
provided you have the bandwidth available to you. this notion that everyone is going to have 50Mbps to their home next year is just crazy IMHO. I know people who don't live all that far out of major metro areas that can barely get 1Mbps. Again, there's zero incentive for ISPs to do the backbone work to increase everyone's speeds. What is someone like Comcast's business motive to get me 50Mbps? How many of their customers will be willing to pay $100+/month for that connection? Just to watch movies that they can rent for $5/mo or buy for $25?

I'm not talking about USB. SD flash cards of the future are what I'm talking about. The flash card I just bought can transfer at 6MB/s (big B). Still, of course they'd have to get faster, but like I said I'm sure it'd be easy/cheap enough to just have the cards already there just like they do DVDs now, except you can fit like 20x as many into the same space ;). It's not that drastic of a change, just swap DVD for memory card and you're done. No more scratched discs, less overhead, easier distribution, larger, higher quality movies.

............
provided you have the bandwidth available to you. this notion that everyone is going to have 50Mbps to their home next year is just crazy IMHO. I know people who don't live all that far out of major metro areas that can barely get 1Mbps. Again, there's zero incentive for ISPs to do the backbone work to increase everyone's speeds. What is someone like Comcast's business motive to get me 50Mbps? How many of their customers will be willing to pay $100+/month for that connection? Just to watch movies that they can rent for $5/mo or buy for $25?

You guys keep changing the story. First it was USB drives that you can keep on your keychain and go to big retailers to download movies instead of buying Discs. Somehow thats transformed into SD card in kiosks at starbucks as an alternative to rentals.

1) If you are in a nonmetro market without HSI... there are Blu ray discs/DVD you can buy.

Think about it. If you are in a market without HSI, without a nearby blockbuster or Bestbuy or Wal mart or Circuit City. What are the chances of your market getting an SD card based Kiosk around every corner.... dont these things need HSI too. So they have to pay higher rates for dedicated lines, and they will get less traffic.

2) SD cards are not exactly sturdy. My Sandisk 2GB extreme II SD card sure is dead. But it looks perfect. These kiosks will have to run tests on them to make sure they still work when you trade them in. That takes time too.

3) I can undertand a SD card like ROM being a replacement for optical in the future, if they can get prices near the costs of Discs. But it would be a long way off. Not only does the Tech need to be there, Standards need to be set bickering needs to go on... then the inevitable Rom card format war needs to happen.

Well....there are actually some alternatives to fossil fuel.

When I went to BB and the movie rental store this week I couldn't find the 50gb usb device to hold even 1 movie nor the kiosk to download from... which is ok since I don't have a device to play back on my HDTV.

Prior planning will be required and it appears nothing is in the pipeline except dreams.The technology and format is there, it just needs to be standardized and developed. Ideas are the root to any great force to make an impact in human living. I'm sure in the 70's the thought of a Microwave was a giant pipe dream but today they are in more homes than television sets. I agree, it is a few years off, but I don't see any urgency on Blu-Ray's part to attempt to take hold of mainstream american consumers other than the PS3 and the BDA telling people that George Bush Jr. wants you to spend your economy stimulas check on a Blu-Ray player.

The BDA needs to get the studios to support the idea of Blu-Ray being the next dominant format and to add incentives including making it affordable and priced competitively to SD-DVD. Am I asking them to subsidize it's adoption? You are darn right I am. They seemed to subsidize plenty in the battle with HD-DVD. Now that that competition is gone I think they are crazy to think people are going to run out and buy $400 Blu-Ray players and $30 discs for their 27" - 50" 720p televisions when the average consumer is hard pressed to tell a difference between 448kbps and 640kbps audio and 1080p downscaled to 720p and 480p upscaled on a decent budget upconverting SD-DVD player. All the while saving themselves from replacing their huge libraries that have amassed over the years. Blu-Ray is like a sports team with a small window of opportunity to win the big game. I don't see them making the moves to win it. The longer they wait, the more likely someone will come along and develop some of these "pipe dreams" and the increased benefits they have over a prssed physical disc.

Sure, it's just random discussion of undeveloped ideas at this point. But the amout of dismissal of those ideas in this thread is crazy. What I am seeing here is the same closed minded mentality that would have said that minidisc would be the next big audio format and digital music downloads would never have a chance. This is the same closed minded thinking that instead of a company like Sony partnering with Napster (in it's heyday) and taking advantage of the huge following they had acquired, worked to destroy it thus handing money and marketshare over to companies like Apple that doesn't think such pipe dreams aren't woth following and taking advantage of.

You point out all of the obstacles that BD still faces, which are good points. But memory chips have all of these same obstacles, plus a whole boat-load more. Sticking with the football analogy, BD is on the opposing teams 30 yard line in field goal range. Memory Sticks are still in their own end zone, as far as I can see.

The technology and format is there, it just needs to be standardized and developed. Ideas are the root to any great force to make an impact in human living. I'm sure in the 70's the thought of a Microwave was a giant pipe dream but today they are in more homes than television sets. I agree, it is a few years off, but I don't see any urgency on Blu-Ray's part to attempt to take hold of mainstream american consumers other than the PS3 and the BDA telling people that George Bush Jr. wants you to spend your economy stimulas check on a Blu-Ray player.

The BDA needs to get the studios to support the idea of Blu-Ray being the next dominant format and to add incentives including making it affordable and priced competitively to SD-DVD. Am I asking them to subsidize it's adoption? You are darn right I am. They seemed to subsidize plenty in the battle with HD-DVD. Now that that competition is gone I think they are crazy to think people are going to run out and buy $400 Blu-Ray players and $30 discs for their 27" - 50" 720p televisions when the average consumer is hard pressed to tell a difference between 448kbps and 640kbps audio and 1080p downscaled to 720p and 480p upscaled on a decent budget upconverting SD-DVD player. All the while saving themselves from replacing their huge libraries that have amassed over the years. Blu-Ray is like a sports team with a small window of opportunity to win the big game. I don't see them making the moves to win it. The longer they wait, the more likely someone will come along and develop some of these "pipe dreams" and the increased benefits they have over a prssed physical disc.

Sure, it's just random discussion of undeveloped ideas at this point. But the amout of dismissal of those ideas in this thread is crazy. What I am seeing here is the same closed minded mentality that would have said that minidisc would be the next big audio format and digital music downloads would never have a chance. This is the same closed minded thinking that instead of a company like Sony partnering with Napster (in it's heyday) and taking advantage of the huge following they had acquired, worked to destroy it thus handing money and marketshare over to companies like Apple that doesn't think such pipe dreams aren't woth following and taking advantage of.
The ideas here are just not good. There are good ideas and then there are ideas that are not good.

These Flash based kiosk idea is not good because its almost completely based on a compromise of negatives.

1) Its not as easy as getting a movie at home(VOD/PPV)
2) Its not as easy as picking up a disc off the shelf and walking to the register.

Reading the comments here Its key highlights are...
a) You dont have to go ALL the way to Wal Mart for your movies
b) It doesnt take as long to download as VOD.

But you still have to leave your house... and now you have to download to flash. And your quality is subject to the compromise of speed and space. And you will need to remember your flashcard. Plus the number of movies you can get will be limited by space on the flash card

The ideas here are just not good. There are good ideas and then there are ideas that are not good.

These Flash based kiosk idea is not good because its almost completely based on a compromise of negatives.


Did you even bother to look at www.portomedia.com and the people involved with it?

Did you even bother to look at www.portomedia.com and the people involved with it?

tqlla is not going to be convinced. Best to leave him to his narrowed minded views.

You guys keep changing the story. First it was USB drives that you can keep on your keychain and go to big retailers to download movies instead of buying Discs. Somehow thats transformed into SD card in kiosks at starbucks as an alternative to rentals..
To begin with, THX guy never specified big retailer or Starbucks.

1) If you are in a nonmetro market without HSI... there are Blu ray discs/DVD you can buy.

Think about it...
Yes, think about it. Nonmetro markets without HSI. If thats what Bluray has going for it, then it really is too late for Bluray.


2) SD cards are not exactly sturdy. My Sandisk 2GB extreme II SD card sure is dead. But it looks perfect. These kiosks will have to run tests on them to make sure they still work when you trade them in.

If I got a bad card I would tell the Kiosk operator. They would throw the bad one away and give me a new one. Same as if I got a bad Bluray disc.

If the card worked for me, it will most likely work for someone else.

You guys keep changing the story. First it was USB drives that you can keep on your keychain and go to big retailers to download movies instead of buying Discs. Somehow thats transformed into SD card in kiosks at starbucks as an alternative to rentals.
Dont say "you guys". I never once said anything about USB.

1) If you are in a nonmetro market without HSI... there are Blu ray discs/DVD you can buy.
And you couldn't purchase a movie on an SD card instead of a blu-ray disc? Same difference man. I'm just arguing for physical media in general here. I think memory cards will be the future, but in general I believe physical media is here to stay, for a very long time and don't see video downloads of any type superceding it.

Think about it. If you are in a market without HSI, without a nearby blockbuster or Bestbuy or Wal mart or Circuit City. What are the chances of your market getting an SD card based Kiosk around every corner.... dont these things need HSI too. So they have to pay higher rates for dedicated lines, and they will get less traffic.
The people I'm talking about aren't living out in the middle of nowhere. They're living out in places where the very high speeds are not available. Contrary to what you seem to believe, not everyone gets some awesome speed at home for $10/month. And I still see zero incentive for any ISP to lower their prices or increase bandwidth to some ungodly amount just so people can download movies instead of buy them on their ppv systems.

2) SD cards are not exactly sturdy. My Sandisk 2GB extreme II SD card sure is dead. But it looks perfect. These kiosks will have to run tests on them to make sure they still work when you trade them in. That takes time too.
Oh please.. are you really going to say a memory card is any less sturdy than an optical disc? Or any less reliable than some set top box & internet connection & home network setup?

3) I can undertand a SD card like ROM being a replacement for optical in the future, if they can get prices near the costs of Discs. But it would be a long way off. Not only does the Tech need to be there, Standards need to be set bickering needs to go on... then the inevitable Rom card format war needs to happen.
I can't disagree with you there. But either way, it's just MHO that video downloads will not surpass any type of physical media any time in the next 5-10 years, possibly longer. The bandwidth simply won't be there. Not on the client side or the server side.

Dont say "you guys". I never once said anything about USB.


And you couldn't purchase a movie on an SD card instead of a blu-ray disc? Same difference man. I'm just arguing for physical media in general here. I think memory cards will be the future, but in general I believe physical media is here to stay, for a very long time and don't see video downloads of any type superceding it.


The people I'm talking about aren't living out in the middle of nowhere. They're living out in places where the very high speeds are not available. Contrary to what you seem to believe, not everyone gets some awesome speed at home for $10/month. And I still see zero incentive for any ISP to lower their prices or increase bandwidth to some ungodly amount just so people can download movies instead of buy them on their ppv systems.


Oh please.. are you really going to say a memory card is any less sturdy than an optical disc? Or any less reliable than some set top box & internet connection & home network setup?


I can't disagree with you there. But either way, it's just MHO that video downloads will not surpass any type of physical media any time in the next 5-10 years, possibly longer. The bandwidth simply won't be there. Not on the client side or the server side.

1) Well, I cant respond to everyone. And apparantly everyone has a "Different vision" of these Kiosks. Stick with the original story, and you see there are a lot of holes in the plot. Even in each of everyone vision of the future... there are numerous different holes.

2) You can purchase a movie on an SD card. I am not discounting that as a ROM format. But carrying it around all the time and downloading it and uploading it. The extra handling, constant transporting, constant rewriting puts the media at risk.

3) How far in the future are you thinking? A couple years for these kiosks if they were to become prevalent? The Phone&Cable company has deemed your are are not worthwhile as an investment for growth. WHY would a Download based Kiosk be placed here? They have to have a dedicated line, which will be more expensive than in major markets, where there will be more foot traffic.

4) I dont carry my DVDs in my pocket and have them written over time and time again. They are kept in a case, and usually on a shelf.

To begin with, THX guy never specified big retailer or Starbucks.

Yes, think about it. Nonmetro markets without HSI. If thats what Bluray has going for it, then it really is too late for Bluray.



If I got a bad card I would tell the Kiosk operator. They would throw the bad one away and give me a new one. Same as if I got a bad Bluray disc.

If the card worked for me, it will most likely work for someone else.

1) Its obvious what he meant. A ROM type card may be another format in the future. But it will take a while. Its not going to be here tommorrow swooping in and killing off optical media. If you are talking 2+years.... BD will have captured a large enough portion of the market that people will be resistant to another format, unless it offers something better. Not a mishmash of compromises.

A card that limits you, that you have to carry with you and download/upload(depending on whose vision you are looking at)... with the same or less PQ? No.

2) Metro markets with HSI can do VOD or PPV if they dont want to drive anywhere. Or they can choose netflix. And if they dont mind leaving the yard... they can go to the local wal mart or Blockbuster and buy/rent a DVD or blu ray disc. At what point does rewriteable flashcards more convinient than these multitude of options that are already available.

And if you are in a rural area without access to HSI, there wont be a kiosk anyway.

3) So now these kiosks are manned? Nice. "Excuse me Starbucks bartender, when you are done with those 30 people in line, can you look at this kiosk?"

3) So now these kiosks are manned? Nice.

So in some unknown time frame we'll have hi-def video kiosks manned by some poor schmoe. Basically, a Blockbuster video store in the size of one of those old-school Kodak film developing drop-off booths, ala "Back to the Future." I just need a 2012 DeLorean and aluminum foil suit. Whatever format gives me the best picture quality, I'll go with it. If that means SD flash cards, VOD, telepathic holograms beamed out from Bill Gates' mansion, etc., I'm game. In the meantime, I'll enjoy the "too late" aspect of watching "I, Robot" for other future takes on the fine city I live.

BTW, I live in what I like to think is a pretty trendy, upwardly mobile part of Chicago (Wicker Park). I have yet to see a DVD kiosk at the supermarkets, coffee shops, gas stations, etc. I frequent. If people with disposable incomes and/or tech-savvy kids in this area are not demanding kiosks, then there are a lot of infrastructure questions to be answered before I see one sporting HD content on every corner.

1) Well, I cant respond to everyone. And apparantly everyone has a "Different vision" of these Kiosks. Stick with the original story, and you see there are a lot of holes in the plot. Even in each of everyone vision of the future... there are numerous different holes.

2) You can purchase a movie on an SD card. I am not discounting that as a ROM format. But carrying it around all the time and downloading it and uploading it. The extra handling, constant transporting, constant rewriting puts the media at risk.

3) How far in the future are you thinking? A couple years for these kiosks if they were to become prevalent? The Phone&Cable company has deemed your are are not worthwhile as an investment for growth. WHY would a Download based Kiosk be placed here? They have to have a dedicated line, which will be more expensive than in major markets, where there will be more foot traffic.

4) I dont carry my DVDs in my pocket and have them written over time and time again. They are kept in a case, and usually on a shelf.
You're starting to lose me here bud. You wouldn't transport a memory card any more than you'd transport an optical disc. Why would a kiosk or rental store renting out flash card movies need some kind of "dedicated line"? They would get restocked just like any other rental store/dvd vending machine. And nobody said you have to keep your movies in your pocket.

I'm trying to figure out what you're arguing here... It seems we're going back and forth between you doing flash memory vs optical discs, and/or physical media vs downloads.

In answer to your question, here's the timeline I see:
now - 5 years: Blu-ray takes over, flash card readers begin to be seen on any new piece of CE involving a display (especially the TVs themselves).
6+ years: Readers are in place for the most part, media is now ultra cheap and begins to take over optical disc formats.

just my $0.02.