For all those naysayers.....http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,347212,00.html

By sooner rather than later, you mean 7-15 years?

The "bandwidth" argument needs to stop. There is currently NOT ENOUGH bandwidth being provided to a large enough portion of the country to make optical obsolete. I would see flash media taking more of the market in the near future than "downloadable content". There are so many variables for it to work successfully and not turn into an :HD" compressed nightmare.

moved to appropriate forum

By sooner rather than later, you mean 7-15 years?

The "bandwidth" argument needs to stop. There is currently NOT ENOUGH bandwidth being provided to a large enough portion of the country to make optical obsolete. I would see flash media taking more of the market in the near future than "downloadable content". There are so many variables for it to work successfully and not turn into an :HD" compressed nightmare.Oh? Do you have proof for any of these assertions?

Welcome R. Jones!

Of course, you are probably wondering why your thread got moved over here where no one will see it. But then you will realize that that is why it got moved here.

I don't think technical issues (like bandwidth) will be what ultimately holds back downloads, I think it will consumer awareness and acceptance.

Awareness: 60% of U.S. consumers are aware of Blu-Ray. How many consumers are aware of downloads? A tenth that? The big-box electronic stores - where most consumers buy their HDTVs - are advertising and pushing Blu-Ray, but they aren't actively pushing download hardware (even if they sell it). How many consumers will be asked if they want to buy a VuDu with their HDTV, compared to how many are asked if they want to buy a Blu-Ray player with their TV?

Acceptance: Among the internet savvy who are aware of downloads, many have expressed that they don't want to a 24-hour timer on their rentals, or have their purchases tied to one machine by DRM. People are happy and comfortable with renting and purchasing their video on optical disks, but are wary of the restrictions placed on downloads.

Even if the bandwidth issue is resolved, downloads have bigger hurdles to overcome.

IMHO we should generally consider that all information storage and delivery is more or less becoming instant and free at a fairly good clip. This creates some consternation among those who previously had profitable distribution monopolies, or maybe even large collections of media.

But these things tend to work themselves out with time.

- Tom

IMHO we should generally consider that all information storage and delivery is more or less becoming instant and free at a fairly good clip.

Tom

I think there are some unfortunate souls in a certain part of Oregon who would disagree with you on this one.

http://bendcable.com/residentialservices_08.cfm

$1.50 for EACH GB over the 50 GB limit! And this is for the "Gold" plan. :eek:

Welcome R. Jones!

Of course, you are probably wondering why your thread got moved over here where no one will see it. But then you will realize that that is why it got moved here.

I here ya, I really enjoyed this forum at one time but here lately it's getting as bad as bluray.com. Thou shalt not comment negatively towards bluray.:eek: I was under the impression that a forum was suppose to offer up both sides of a topic.

HAHAHA! Mark this down with the predictions five years ago that e books would replace paperbacks and put Barnes and Noble out of business! If you look at the predictions of e books back in the day and the forecasts for digital downloads of movies today, the similarities are striking.

Someone needs to tell these "analysts" to stop living in the past. They're still sore over looking stupid after the tech bubble burst. Much like... oh you know. ;)

I think there are some unfortunate souls in a certain part of Oregon who would disagree with you on this one.

http://bendcable.com/residentialservices_08.cfm

$1.50 for EACH GB over the 50 GB limit! And this is for the "Gold" plan. :eek:

People will probably catch on to the trap in that plan real fast. In their basic plan at the full advertised speed you can use up your entire monthly allotment in less than 3 hours and then start paying over$5.00/hour for the rest of the month.

One teenage downloader on the news groups could get a family a monthly bill of thousands of dollars for a month if they got zealous about it.

Expect some objections. ;)

- Tom

Of course, you are probably wondering why your thread got moved over here where no one will see it.
That fact that far fewer people read this sub-forum should be a good indicator that most people simply are not interested in downloads, regardless of technical feasibility.

That fact that far fewer people read this sub-forum should be a good indicator that most people simply are not interested in downloads, regardless of technical feasibility.

^^

That fact that far fewer people read this sub-forum should be a good indicator that most people simply are not interested in downloads, regardless of technical feasibility.

Yes. And that's fewer people of an already audio/video tech savey group. So just imagine what that percentage of JQ Public would be.

Oh? Do you have proof for any of these assertions?

Typical cable modem network has 300-400 houses sharing a single 30-40M pipe. Yeah, you may have an 8M pipe to your house, but the network is not designed for everybody to be downloading multigigbyte programs at the same time on Friday night. If 10% of the houses are downloading a movie on a Friday night, everybody is now down to a 1M pipe at best (and likely less then that).

The business model for cable modems is for median usage to be around 3-5G per month.

Then let's add in that Comcast cuts off service to people who download more then they think is acceptable which seems to be in the 200-300G range/month. Start putting the equiviland of BD-25s (ignoring BD-50s). out there for download and you are at about 10 movies in a month to be an "abuser".

Sorry. The bandwidth is not there and the current infrastructure is designed for most people to be only checking email and surfing the web, not for everybody to be downloading movies.

I don't think technical issues (like bandwidth) will be what ultimately holds back downloads, I think it will consumer awareness and acceptance.

Awareness: 60% of U.S. consumers are aware of Blu-Ray. How many consumers are aware of downloads? A tenth that? The big-box electronic stores - where most consumers buy their HDTVs - are advertising and pushing Blu-Ray, but they aren't actively pushing download hardware (even if they sell it). How many consumers will be asked if they want to buy a VuDu with their HDTV, compared to how many are asked if they want to buy a Blu-Ray player with their TV?

Acceptance: Among the internet savvy who are aware of downloads, many have expressed that they don't want to a 24-hour timer on their rentals, or have their purchases tied to one machine by DRM. People are happy and comfortable with renting and purchasing their video on optical disks, but are wary of the restrictions placed on downloads.

Even if the bandwidth issue is resolved, downloads have bigger hurdles to overcome.

I know of more people that download movies/music than own BD players.

I know of more people that download movies/music than own BD players.

First off, music is a different matter. Second, how many of those people that you know who are D/L movies are actually 'paying' for them? It's not a viable market if there is no money being made by the people who own the content.

HAHAHA! Mark this down with the predictions five years ago that e books would replace paperbacks and put Barnes and Noble out of business! If you look at the predictions of e books back in the day and the forecasts for digital downloads of movies today, the similarities are striking.

Someone needs to tell these "analysts" to stop living in the past. They're still sore over looking stupid after the tech bubble burst. Much like... oh you know. ;)

That is a terrible analogy.

But since you want to go down that road take a look at the readership of newspapers and print media across the country. Down big time since the 1990s.

First off, music is a different matter. Second, how many of those people that you know who are D/L movies are actually 'paying' for them? It's not a viable market if there is no money being made by the people who own the content.

Tell your cable provider, satellite co., Apple, etc., etc, that it's not a viable market. If there was no money to be made, do you think they would go to all the effort?

Tell your cable provider, satellite co., Apple, etc., etc, that it's not a viable market. If there was no money to be made, do you think they would go to all the effort?

Just because someone is pumping venture capital into something doesn't mean it's viable. Look at Toshiba.

Just because someone is pumping venture capital into something doesn't mean it's viable. Look at Toshiba.So Ed Roberts wasted his time back in the mid-70's?

That fact that far fewer people read this sub-forum should be a good indicator that most people simply are not interested in downloads, regardless of technical feasibility.

I remember some years ago, I was at the video store happily browsing for a video when I heard someone say "I can't remember the last time I watched a movie on tape". Up until that moment, I was, as you would put it, "simply not interested" in DVDs, barely aware of their existence. A short time later I bought a DVD player.

My "simply not interested" turned out actually to be "simply not aware".

Yes, there is no interest in any kindof VOD service. Just look at these pathetic numbers from Comcast's On Demand service (source linky to be taken with a grain of salt since the numbers come from Comcast (http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6509888.html))


6 billion views since inception 4 years ago
100 million hours viewed per month.
80% of customers have used it in the last 90 days.


Yeah, there definitely is no market. Pathetic.

It's not like VOD services can't co-exist with Blu-Ray, so I'm not sure why certain...ahem...groups are so against it. I for one like more options, rather than less options. Unless of course you think the AppleTv box is going to eat your Blu-Ray player if they were in the same rack together.

My CES 2009 prediction: 1 huge Blu-Ray booth completely surrounded on all sides by download, streaming, and VOD services. I'm basing that on there being 2 1/4 HD media formats introduced recently (VMD counts as 1/4) and about 50 VOD options (not to mention rumors of Netlix/BB streaming coming as well).

Sorry. The bandwidth is not there and the current infrastructure is designed for most people to be only checking email and surfing the web, not for everybody to be downloading movies.Sorry, I'll have my choice of 50 mbps Comcast DOCSIS 3.0 or Verizon FiOS by this time next year. :D

Just because someone is pumping venture capital into something doesn't mean it's viable. Look at Toshiba.

I am confused. Was Toshiba pumping venture capital into it or using their own funds?

HAHAHA! Mark this down with the predictions five years ago that e books would replace paperbacks and put Barnes and Noble out of business! If you look at the predictions of e books back in the day and the forecasts for digital downloads of movies today, the similarities are striking.

Someone needs to tell these "analysts" to stop living in the past. They're still sore over looking stupid after the tech bubble burst. Much like... oh you know. ;)Did you know there are 24.6 million homes w/DVR (http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.san&s=79336&Nid=40891&p=918739), and 36 million homes have VOD? And those numbers should almost double by 2012...

What is being discussed here is no different. Actually, it is possible that the same cable/telco DVR box will be the download box. Ever hear of Tru2way?

I am confused. Was Toshiba pumping venture capital into it or using their own funds?

What's the difference between venture capital and your own money? I was refering to Toshiba losing billions over HD-DVD. It makes no difference what you 'call' the money. The point is, just because someone is pumping money into something, doesn't mean it will be successful. Or if you don't want to use HD-DVD as example, how about Enron? How much did they lose on VOD? Evidently enough to help lead to their collapse.

It's not like VOD services can't co-exist with Blu-Ray, so I'm not sure why certain...ahem...groups are so against it. I for one like more options, rather than less options. Unless of course you think the AppleTv box is going to eat your Blu-Ray player if they were in the same rack together.

My CES 2009 prediction: 1 huge Blu-Ray booth completely surrounded on all sides by download, streaming, and VOD services. I'm basing that on there being 2 1/4 HD media formats introduced recently (VMD counts as 1/4) and about 50 VOD options (not to mention rumors of Netlix/BB streaming coming as well).

and none of the 50 VOD companies are compatible with each other which makes VOD decent for rentals, but horrible if you want to buy something.

The "bandwidth" argument needs to stop. There is currently NOT ENOUGH bandwidth being provided to a large enough portion of the country to make optical obsolete.I don't see bandwidth being an issue for two reasons.

1. Downloads don't have to equal VOD. I use Apple TV quite often as I simply order a few movies and watch them when I get to them. The other day it was over three weeks before I viewed one. How long they take to download is basically a non issue.

2. The adoption rate can only grow so fast based on numerous factors and the available bandwidth should more than exceed demand for years to come. Sure there will be cases where it's an issue... but that can be said about anything being adopted.

and none of the 50 VOD companies are compatible with each other which makes VOD decent for rentals, but horrible if you want to buy something.

Like anything else, either a couple codecs/formats will emerge that will play on multiple devices (think how MP3 can play on so many devices now), or a handful of providers will emerge.

I guess I look around my house, I see my OnDemand, I see my XBOX, I see my Netflix streaming (hopefully soon through the Xbox), soon I will see my AppleTV and my PS3 with it's version of marketplace, etc. Then I see my HD DVD and Blu-Ray players, and none of them are compatible with each other. But guess which ones are the most inconvenient? The ones that require a few remote button presses, or the ones that require trips to stores or Very Long Waits in my Netflix queue?

I like choices. Got nothing against any of them, but I like having a multitude of choices.

Like anything else, either a couple codecs/formats will emerge that will play on multiple devices (think how MP3 can play on so many devices now), or a handful of providers will emerge.


However, I do not want to buy a movie that will only play on an Apple player (for example). Then if next year the best download player is made my netflix (for example) I now have to rebuy my movies to play them on a new player. No thanks. Like I said, currently a horrible model for buying movies.

You are right MP3s will play on lots of things, but the majority of the legal download services refuse to use MP3s because they can be played on many things. The big music download services have propritary formats that will only play on certain players. One reason I don't deal with them. I don't want something I buy locked into only a small number of hardware devices.

What's the difference between venture capital and your own money? I was refering to Toshiba losing billions over HD-DVD. It makes no difference what you 'call' the money. The point is, just because someone is pumping money into something, doesn't mean it will be successful. Or if you don't want to use HD-DVD as example, how about Enron? How much did they lose on VOD? Evidently enough to help lead to their collapse.

Well let me see. Venture capital is somebody else's money and your own funds, are well, your own funds. So yes there is quite a difference.

And Sony has lost billions pushing Blu-Ray and the PS3 with little to show for it except owning a market that is almost non-existent right now.

This can and will be successful because the people who control your cable\phone\internet are providing the service. As somebody already pointed out above. Billions of VOD views. It is already successful.

However, I do not want to buy a movie that will only play on an Apple player (for example). Then if next year the best download player is made my netflix (for example) I now have to rebuy my movies to play them on a new player. No thanks. Like I said, currently a horrible model for buying movies.

You are right MP3s will play on lots of things, but the majority of the legal download services refuse to use MP3s because they can be played on many things. The big music download services have propritary formats that will only play on certain players. One reason I don't deal with them. I don't want something I buy locked into only a small number of hardware devices.

Netflix's download service is a view once deal. You dont buy it, you watch it. If you want to re-watch it then you redownload it. The quality is actually pretty good and it streams great. I have been using it about the last week and have been impressed. Right now their biggest issue is a weak catalog of movies. But that will change over the next 12 months. I really think a service like Netflix can be a dominant force. What do I care if I own a 20 dollar DVD or Blu-Ray disc? Then have to store it on a wall and hope the damn disc is in the case when I decide to watch it? When instead I can pay a 15\month dollar fee to netflix and have thousands of movies on demand?

Netflix's download service is a view once deal. You dont buy it, you watch it. If you want to re-watch it then you redownload it. The quality is actually pretty good and it streams great. I have been using it about the last week and have been impressed. Right now their biggest issue is a weak catalog of movies. But that will change over the next 12 months. I really think a service like Netflix can be a dominant force. What do I care if I own a 20 dollar DVD or Blu-Ray disc? Then have to store it on a wall and hope the damn disc is in the case when I decide to watch it? When instead I can pay a 15\month dollar fee to netflix and have thousands of movies on demand?

My big issue with Netflix is the whole "have to watch it on your computer thing". I prefer to watch movies on my plasma and don't currently have (not plan to have) a computer hooked up to it. I have no interest in watching movies on my computer.

If there is a movie I really like, for example Lord of the Rings I would prefer to own it and be able to watch it anytime I want. That is convient. I very often put Cars in my Blu-ray player to show people what Blu-Ray can do and I would hate to have to redownload it everytime I wanted to show people a couple a scenes out of Cars.

My big issue with Netflix is the whole "have to watch it on your computer thing". I prefer to watch movies on my plasma and don't currently have (not plan to have) a computer hooked up to it. I have no interest in watching movies on my computer.

If there is a movie I really like, for example Lord of the Rings I would prefer to own it and be able to watch it anytime I want. That is convient. I very often put Cars in my Blu-ray player to show people what Blu-Ray can do and I would hate to have to redownload it everytime I wanted to show people a couple a scenes out of Cars.

That will change as well. Netflix is working on a set top box and will most likely partner up with other companies. I heard they working getting onto the xBox360 and possibly into new TV's coming out next year. I am personally hoping they work with TiVo so I can use it directly from my TiVo box.

My big issue with Netflix is the whole "have to watch it on your computer thing". I prefer to watch movies on my plasma and don't currently have (not plan to have) a computer hooked up to it. I have no interest in watching movies on my computer.

If there is a movie I really like, for example Lord of the Rings I would prefer to own it and be able to watch it anytime I want. That is convient. I very often put Cars in my Blu-ray player to show people what Blu-Ray can do and I would hate to have to redownload it everytime I wanted to show people a couple a scenes out of Cars.

Hopefully I'll be able to stream Netflix to my XBOX or Tivo soon.

And yes, there will always be a handful of movies I want to own (like LOTR). On the other hand, there are hundreds I'm fine with not owning. I'll use a current example here. My top movie in my Netflix queue is the HD DVD version of The Kingdom. I have no desire to own it. It was released on December 23 (well over 3 months ago). Current status is "Very Long Wait"

Now, I don't know if that's available on AppleTv or Vudu or not (i don't own either and am too lazy to look at the list), but if it was/is, I could watch it tonight....or I could've watched it weeks ago. But no......I have to wait months for Netflix to have it available. Heck, I have 3 free months of Starz and Showtime right now...I wonder if I'll be able to watch it on there before I can get it from Netflix.

Right now I look at my collection of 750+ DVDs and think it was a big waste of money. There are maybe 25 I've watched more than once, and significantly less I've watched more than twice. Figure if the average price I paid for them was $10, then I could've rented each one twice for the same cost...and they wouldn't be sitting there taking up space and collecting dust. Never again.

Hopefully I'll be able to stream Netflix to my XBOX or Tivo soon.

And yes, there will always be a handful of movies I want to own (like LOTR). On the other hand, there are hundreds I'm fine with not owning. I'll use a current example here. My top movie in my Netflix queue is the HD DVD version of The Kingdom. I have no desire to own it. It was released on December 23 (well over 3 months ago). Current status is "Very Long Wait"

Now, I don't know if that's available on AppleTv or Vudu or not (i don't own either and am too lazy to look at the list), but if it was/is, I could watch it tonight....or I could've watched it weeks ago. But no......I have to wait months for Netflix to have it available. Heck, I have 3 free months of Starz and Showtime right now...I wonder if I'll be able to watch it on there before I can get it from Netflix.

Right now I look at my collection of 750+ DVDs and think it was a big waste of money. There are maybe 25 I've watched more than once, and significantly less I've watched more than twice. Figure if the average price I paid for them was $10, then I could've rented each one twice for the same cost...and they wouldn't be sitting there taking up space and collecting dust. Never again.

You are so right!

Right now I look at my collection of 750+ DVDs and think it was a big waste of money. There are maybe 25 I've watched more than once, and significantly less I've watched more than twice. Figure if the average price I paid for them was $10, then I could've rented each one twice for the same cost...and they wouldn't be sitting there taking up space and collecting dust. Never again.

I think this points out a hidden benefit to the studios of selling movies in a digital form as opposed to on an optical disk. The consumer can still have the pleasure of wasting money buying movies they only end up watching once, while the evidence of this wastefulness is gone, hence no more guilt.

No more row after row of discs in their cases, "taking up space and collecting dust" and possibly exposing you to ridicule and scorn from family and friends. Just save them to multi/mega terabyte hard disks, out of sight out of mind.

I think this points out a hidden benefit to the studios of selling movies in a digital form as opposed to on an optical disk. The consumer can still have the pleasure of wasting money buying movies they only end up watching once, while the evidence of this wastefulness is gone, hence no more guilt.

No more row after row of discs in their cases, "taking up space and collecting dust" and possibly exposing you to ridicule and scorn from family and friends. Just save them to multi/mega terabyte hard disks, out of sight out of mind.


Um... I don't consider my movie collection a waste. And I also found a wonderful invention to take care of the space they take up... it's called 'shelves'.

Um... I don't consider my movie collection a waste. And I also found a wonderful invention to take care of the space they take up... it's called 'shelves'.

I don't consider mine a waste either, but there is some waste in it. DVDs on shelves? Don't care for the look somehow. Yet I have no problem with books on shelves. I would love to have all my favorite movies in hidef on a great big hard disk.

That will change as well. Netflix is working on a set top box and will most likely partner up with other companies. I heard they working getting onto the xBox360 and possibly into new TV's coming out next year. I am personally hoping they work with TiVo so I can use it directly from my TiVo box.

This is what I want now. I can't believe that msft isn't in bed with tivo right now. Heck the tivo3 is by far the best dvr out there and it would be great to download hd movies on it.

I am not going to buy an xbox360 just to use the dowload service. If sony gets the playstation3 onto the hd download movies I would try that too. I think msft needs to realize this and get their download service into as many devices possible.

I am suprised no one has mentioned Vudu, you can rent or buy the movie and I believe that in the future they will even store your purchased movies on their servers. Their HD content isn't blueray quality yet but it isn't bad.

This is what I want now. I can't believe that msft isn't in bed with tivo right now. Heck the tivo3 is by far the best dvr out there and it would be great to download hd movies on it.

I am not going to buy an xbox360 just to use the dowload service. If sony gets the playstation3 onto the hd download movies I would try that too. I think msft needs to realize this and get their download service into as many devices possible.

Sony will be realeasing their new os on the playstation on April 15. With that said there are no movie downloads for good reason. They just spent several hundred million buying the dying high def plastic disc market. They want PS3 solely as a player of that plastic.

Toshiba should now make a streaming media box and say they knew it was the future and thats why they exited the war. :cool::cool:

Sony will be realeasing their new os on the playstation on April 15. With that said there are no movie downloads for good reason. They just spent several hundred million buying the dying high def plastic disc market. They want PS3 solely as a player of that plastic.

Toshiba should now make a streaming media box and say they knew it was the future and thats why they exited the war. :cool::cool:
That Toshiba streaming media box would also more than likely be made of PLASTIC as well:)

Looks like toshiba and IBM are doing this very thing. Good for them.

Sony needs to bleed after they what they have done here.

...snip...

If there is a movie I really like, for example Lord of the Rings I would prefer to own it and be able to watch it anytime I want. That is convient. I very often put Cars in my Blu-ray player to show people what Blu-Ray can do and I would hate to have to redownload it everytime I wanted to show people a couple a scenes out of Cars.

I can do this with Vudu right now. For example, I have the Bourne Trilogy (HD) on my very own Vudu box and can watch it repeatedly at any time.


I have yet to test it, but I am sure I can pick up my Vudu box and carry over to my neighbors and they too can watch Bourne on their HD.

LT

Right now I can dl/view a movie at 4.7MPS and watch it on my Vudu machine from my RoadRunner/TWC system.

The problem of course is that TWC also provides VOD in direct competition to Vudu. The future of this battle between the pipeline owners who also own and provide content will be an enormous issue in the future.

Being able to easily raise my costs for RoadRunner cable modem or creating throughput plateaus while supporting TimeWarner at their own current rates creates an interesting "tension"...

LT