Does anybody have an predictions on the value of the converter boxes after February 17, 2009? Certainly there will be some demand for these after February 17, 2009, but after the initial number of folks that somehow missed out that a change was coming I would think that there would be little value for these boxes. Certainly there will be some folks buying replacements or additional boxes, but this is something of a gamble for the companies manufacturing these tuners. (Maybe they will be as valuable as HD DVD equipment is now!)

good question. For those of us with TVs / recording devices without digital tuners - they will still be useful.

I'm guessing most of the cheaper models would go below $40. Right now, it's subsidized so I guess they're milking the coupon for all its worth. When people have to pay out of their own pocket, they're less likely to part with the cash. Out of curiosity, do retailers actually receive $40 from the government for every coupon claimed?

Does anybody have an predictions on the value of the converter boxes after February 17, 2009? Certainly there will be some demand for these after February 17, 2009, but after the initial number of folks that somehow missed out that a change was coming I would think that there would be little value for these boxes. Certainly there will be some folks buying replacements or additional boxes, but this is something of a gamble for the companies manufacturing these tuners. (Maybe they will be as valuable as HD DVD equipment is now!) Primarily because of the FCC/NTIA mandated limitations on CECB functionality, CECBs are likely to have weak resale value a year from now. By 2011, CECBs might be commonplace finds at yard sales and flea markets.

One wild card, though, is the outcome of the Rembrandt Technologies "patent troll" lawsuits. In those lawsuits, Rembrandt is seeking exhorbitant royalty payments against CECB manufacturers as well as against TV broadcasters.

Unless Rembrandt's patents are invalidated by the Federal courts, buyers of ATSC gear might be forced to pay a punishing "patent tax" on new ATSC tuners, giving a marketplace boost to resale values for used CECBs.

I'm guessing most of the cheaper models would go below $40. Right now, it's subsidized so I guess they're milking the coupon for all its worth. When people have to pay out of their own pocket, they're less likely to part with the cash. Out of curiosity, do retailers actually receive $40 from the government for every coupon claimed?

According to http://www.ntia.doc.gov/dtvcoupon/status.html the total value of the coupons ordered is slightly less than 40 times the number of coupons ordered. That tells me that some of the coupons are being redeemed for less than $40.

I predict that a couple months after 2/17/09 the better quality CECBs will sell for under $40. There will also be stacks of the poorer performing CECBs real cheap in the second hand stores.

Does anybody have an predictions on the value of the converter boxes after February 17, 2009? Certainly there will be some demand for these after February 17, 2009, but after the initial number of folks that somehow missed out that a change was coming I would think that there would be little value for these boxes. Certainly there will be some folks buying replacements or additional boxes, but this is something of a gamble for the companies manufacturing these tuners. (Maybe they will be as valuable as HD DVD equipment is now!)


I'd say new popular low end units will be going for about $30. I'd expect a lot of clearance sales on less popular models in 1st qt 2009.

Keep in mind that Canada & Mexico are switching to the same ATSC system, so there still will be a North American market for these things and those governments haven't announced any coupon program.

One thing to look forward to is boxes that have both ATSC & QAM tuners once the 33 million coupons are gone. As cable systems switch to all-digital, these will be a continuing market for some time.

My interest is how cheap HDD recorders with ATSC/QAM will become.

>Maybe they will be as valuable as HD DVD equipment is now!)

I understand that HD DVD players are real good at DVD upconverting.

Thinking like a beaurocrat, the discrepancy is probably an accounting thing. They could be reporting the actual number of coupon requests, but on the $$ side adding in the $40 only when the coupon is mailed, so $$ trails by a day or so.

Or, my preferred explanation: they got a batch of boxes as freebies for program admins and congressmen; they need to show these in the numbers of boxes distributed via this program, so they show up in the coupon count, but without any redemption value, the $$ is reduced by that much.

ETA: ok, so I did the math, and there are 100 more coupons than cash. Sounds like a batch of "free samples."

Near the end, people who waited to the last minute may panic and drive demand up again. There will still be a market, and the way they are pacing things with the coupons may keep the price more steady.

The greatest demand will be in the month after the analog shut down. You'll have plenty of procastinators. The value of used CECB will peak a couple of months after the last of the coupons expire. After that it'll become a niche market tho some of the makers that planned ahead and included QAM capability will resurect them for cable subscribers - with no definite shutdown date those sales are uncertain, plus there'll be some competition from cableco subsidized STBs.

Keep in mind that Canada & Mexico are switching to the same ATSC system, so there still will be a North American market for these things and those governments haven't announced any coupon program. Canada's analog shutoff is in 2011, but Mexico's analog shutoff is about ten years later. Mexico apparently isn't facing the same commercial / political demand to reclaim bandwidth from analog broadcasting.

the total value of the coupons ordered is slightly less than 40 times the number of coupons ordered. That tells me that some of the coupons are being redeemed for less than $40.
I predict that a couple months after 2/17/09 the better quality CECBs will sell for under $40. There will also be stacks of the poorer performing CECBs real cheap in the second hand stores.

Yep, when boxes are sold for under 40 dollars, the redemption value
will be less than 40.

Thinking like a beaurocrat, the discrepancy is probably an accounting thing. They could be reporting the actual number of coupon requests, but on the $$ side adding in the $40 only when the coupon is mailed, so $$ trails by a day or so.

Or, my preferred explanation: they got a batch of boxes as freebies for program admins and congressmen; they need to show these in the numbers of boxes distributed via this program, so they show up in the coupon count, but without any redemption value, the $$ is reduced by that much.

ETA: ok, so I did the math, and there are 100 more coupons than cash. Sounds like a batch of "free samples."

I saw an aticle last week that said: 11 million coupons had been requested, but only 500,000 had been redeemed (article didn't state as of what date)

Seems like a lot of people are waiting on the perfect box

According to http://www.ntia.doc.gov/dtvcoupon/status.html the total value of the coupons ordered is slightly less than 40 times the number of coupons ordered. That tells me that some of the coupons are being redeemed for less than $40.

Although that could be the case, a more reasonable explanation is a number of unredeemed coupons issued. Some people may realize they don't need the converter after requesting coupons because of their newer TV or with cable subscription. In addition, some coupons may be just sitting around and become expired.

I saw an aticle last week that said: 11 million coupons had been requested, but only 500,000 had been redeemed (article didn't state as of what date)

Seems like a lot of people are waiting on the perfect box

Don't forget the number of people that have requested the coupons within the last couple months and have not received the coupons yet. In addition, many local stores are OOS with converters.

My brother just ordered his coupons a few weeks ago. Now he is talking about replacing his TV with a HD unit. Maybe a lot of coupons will not get used. He ordered two and has absolutely no need for more than one.

Rick R

And if the coupons don't get used within the 90 days, the money goes back into the pot.

The guy at the local Radio Shack came up with a good point, that demand will be high Memorial Day weekend or thereabouts, next year. Around here in the Northeast, there are a good many people with summer camps. At home they either have cable or satellite so don't care about the transition, but come next Memorial Day, the time when most people first go to open their summer camps, they turn on the TV and get no signal. Lots of these camps are in the mountains or back in the woods where there's no cable and satellite may be blocked by trees and/or hills. If they have TV, it's usually a snowy but watchable signal from a rooftop antenna. Next year they will get nothing and rush out to buy a converter box. Whether they get a digital signal is of no concern at that point, they've already bought the box. You might also see a spike in antenna sales at that time to go along with it, who knows?

Seems to me to be a likely enough scenario. Whether that will create a noticable spike in box sales next year is another thing. Some people may just decide to not have TV at camp or cut down some trees for a satellite dish. Those whose camps are behind mountains will be outta luck.

LD

My brother just ordered his coupons a few weeks ago. Now he is talking about replacing his TV with a HD unit. Maybe a lot of coupons will not get used. He ordered two and has absolutely no need for more than one.

Rick R

Yeah, it amazes me how many folks have VCRs and DVD recorders without digital tuners, but don't care about recording off air after next February. Apparently, there are a lot of folks in that situation.

Does anybody have an predictions on the value of the converter boxes after February 17, 2009? ......... (Maybe they will be as valuable as HD DVD equipment is now!)Resale value of used CECBs will probably be modest, and they will become common finds at yard sales and flea markets in summer 2010.

If the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession, though, then people are likely to hold onto their existing TVs and postpone buying a new HD LCD or plasma set. They might even cancel cable or satellite service if the economic slump gets really awful - i.e. if gas prices rise to $5/gallon (which is highly unlikely).

If Uncle Sam's stimulus checks and other "economic pump priming" measures do the trick, I suspect used CECBs will have very little resale value two years from now.

Yeah, it amazes me how many folks have VCRs and DVD recorders without digital tuners, but don't care about recording off air after next February. Apparently, there are a lot of folks in that situation.

I think people have not thought it out. I think on February 18 2009 people will say, "Wow I can not record OTA without another CECB. I better go buy one."

Rick R

Yep, when the subchannels kick in fully, they will want to watch more than they can watch, and that old analog recorder will need a box. And on the borders, when people lose coverage of US channels they watched, they will want a box.

I saw an aticle last week that said: 11 million coupons had been requested, but only 500,000 had been redeemed (article didn't state as of what date)

Seems like a lot of people are waiting on the perfect box
the problem is that these coupons are only valid for 90 days, something I did not consider when ordering mine, so waiting for the 'perfect box' may not be an option.

TX

I don't think they were waiting for perfect box. The FTIA list was extremely misleading about what was actually on the market - especially the pass through models, they showed 6 early on, and nobody had it.

Yep, when the subchannels kick in fully, they will want to watch more than they can watch, and that old analog recorder will need a box. And on the borders, when people lose coverage of US channels they watched, they will want a box.

There's a bill winding its way through Congress right now that would grant stations within 50 miles of the Mexican border a waiver from the analog shutoff.

Interesting anomaly, or the first salvo in the greatest wimp-out in the history of the US government? We shall see.