Are you guys following some of the comments coming out of the latest quarterly report regarding future guidance. Particularly those which might be related to our interests.

No 'news' here; But some comments that might generate some interesting thoughts for us:

"
There is a secret "product transition" that will affect Apple's product margins and drop them to about 30 percent, but which CFO Peter Oppenheimer can't talk about today. Whether this applies to the Mac, iPod, or another category is unclear.

Regarding the mystery transition, Apple doesn't want to leave a margin so high that it creates an "umbrella" for competitors to rest under; it often releases products at a high price but lowers their prices later.

These state-of-the-art products will be ones that others "can't match," Oppenheimer says.

Gross margins should be about 30 percent as a result of this.
"

Also:
"
Apple TV remains a "hobby," as it's not a very large business. However, Apple plans to continue investing in the media hub as the company is still "excited" about it.
"

ken
(I extracted these from the Analyst's report on Apple Insider from their quarterly conference call with Apple management.)

New ACDs that the competition can't match ;)

I'd say it has to be the iTablet, obviously along with new MacBook(Pros)

Headless Mac to fuel the rising market share even more??

yep - agreed Ted; perhaps an 'iTunes server' as well...

ken

Are you guys following some of the comments coming out of the latest quarterly report regarding future guidance. Particularly those which might be related to our interests.

No 'news' here; But some comments that might generate some interesting thoughts for us:

"
There is a secret "product transition" that will affect Apple's product margins and drop them to about 30 percent, but which CFO Peter Oppenheimer can't talk about today. Whether this applies to the Mac, iPod, or another category is unclear.

Regarding the mystery transition, Apple doesn't want to leave a margin so high that it creates an "umbrella" for competitors to rest under; it often releases products at a high price but lowers their prices later.

These state-of-the-art products will be ones that others "can't match," Oppenheimer says.

Gross margins should be about 30 percent as a result of this.
"

Also:
"
Apple TV remains a "hobby," as it's not a very large business. However, Apple plans to continue investing in the media hub as the company is still "excited" about it.
"

ken
(I extracted these from the Analyst's report on Apple Insider from their quarterly conference call with Apple management.)

The 2 things I can think of that would soak up margins would be Blu-Ray support, or massive SSDs... or maybe touchscreen.

Can't say I feel too optimistic about any of those. Heck, we can't even get a Mini refresh... by now those parts are so old, newer ones almost have to increase margins :)

I was thinking about massive SSDs as well; But whatever it is; It's not trivial and the market is punishing Apple for whatever they think it is:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/21/apple_plans_mystery_product_transition_before_septembers_end .html

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/21/apple_shares_beaten_late_on_concerns_over_ceos_health_guidan ce.html

Where is OLED these days.. anywhere near ready for actual use at 12-21" screen sizes?

Or some kind of new battery tech that would create Apple laptops that run for 12 hours?

Seems like Apple is saying they are going to bite the bullet and adopt a technology that is otherwise considered not quite ready for primetime (most likely from a cost perspective). Once someone bites that bullet, economies of scale will likely drive the prices down such that it will eventually become cost effective.

It doesn't seem like its one new product, but something they could apply to much or all of their product line.

Perhaps it's the game platform that Sculley killed years ago? That would be the hardware to introduce a BluRay player, and with Apple's innovations, could possibly compete but with reduced margins? Is that something that Apple would want to get into, but maybe bundle it with an entertainment server?

all reasonable ideas; the other item of note was the recent hiring Doug Field (Segway) to VP Product Design...
http://www.engadget.com/2008/07/07/segway-cto-becoming-vp-of-apple-product-design-yes-really/

And I heard Jobs quoted during the last Keynote saying something about Apple being much more than just a 3 trick pony company...

Something's up, but I can't get a firm feel for it;

ken

Maybe they will officially support (so we can finally build the machines we want (ie. the Mac super-Mini) vs. the machines Apple deigns to allow us to buy)

Just kidding.. :D (I know how folks here feel about clones)

I'd say Apple's going to implement multi-touch across it's product line in some fashion. As Apple killed the floppy, maybe it's time to kill the mouse.

Fits all the criteria for Oppy's mysterious words.

now that's an interesting thought and maybe in concert with the Tablet launch, which would also be SSD likely -
good thought Rock....

ken

Am I the only one who sees no point to this thread? This is a htpc forum, so, of course, we all hope there will be something for us. But until the announcement is made (assuming there is one), all anyone can do is make wild guesses.

Yes, but wild guesses are more fun than yet another "how do I get a 1080P connection from my MacMini to HDTV model X+infinity" thread, however necessary they may be.

More seriously though: it would be more than a guess to interpret what Apple has said as a move towards much greater market share over premium margins: relation to HT: if we are talking about Macs, there are two possible scenarios -- introducing a MacMaxi/xMac with the obvious implications to HTPC. Or, cutting prices on MacBooks (&MBPros) substantially to the point where they are an affordable (more powerful) alternative to Minis. Wilder speculation could involve a "product transition" in the Apple Cinema Display line with serious HT implications as well.

Of course it is possible the lower margins and "product transition" are all about moving the iPod line other than the shuffle, to a screen only iPod Touch, OS X running configuration, all priced aggressively, thus killing of the Zune or any other would be iPod competitor. In which case Further is right, and we are wasting our time with this thread. But come on -- it is so much fun.

I'm also not happy about the constantly repetitive questions here, but this thread reappears every six months or so and is itself one of the most repetitive in this forum. It was fun the first one or two times it appeared a couple of years ago.

I think some conjecture on Apple is warranted in the context that for HTPC we have had to 'force-fit' Apple from the beginning. With them, it's been an evolutionary process and some discussion of thoughts is warranted from time to time... The only 'point' is to share thoughts and ideas... (the fun part - I'm with Ted!);

But hey - let's not waste those bits.... Movin' on...

ken

I'm also not happy about the constantly repetitive questions here, but this thread reappears every six months or so and is itself one of the most repetitive in this forum. It was fun the first one or two times it appeared a couple of years ago.
Well, we could have one permanent "Future Apple Products Speculation Thread" with the understanding that there has to be a HTPC connection to the products we speculate about (Maxi, ACDs, Blu-ray, etc.)

As Ken says, banning all future product speculation would rob us of the ability to imagine better Apple HT products, which may have an actual impact on future Apple products. After all, there is at least one AVS person (Imlucid) who works for Apple.

Don't you think that our Apple DVD Player complaints or our desire to play VIDEO_TS through Front Row had something to do with Apple vastly improving the player in Leopard and upgrading Front Row to allow VIDEO_TS and DVD cover art? I think that constant speculation about future Apple products doesn't happen in a vacuum, Apple does (sometimes) listen to us.

In that respect future product speculation is useful, as indeed are the endless "How do I connect my Mini" threads because maybe Apple will finally decide that they should either release their own Apple branded 1080P monitors or partner with a third party to have guaranteed working plug/play between Macs and that company's HDTVs (say Samsung, because Sony is already busy turning their HDTVs into Apple TV competitors).

Ted

P.S. We now have the real truth on that Apple product transition: Joy of Tech knows. (http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/1132.html)

Well, we could have one permanent "Future Apple Products Speculation Thread" with the understanding that there has to be a HTPC connection to the products we speculate about (Maxi, ACDs, Blu-ray, etc.)

We now have the real truth on that Apple product transition: Joy of Tech knows. (http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchives/1132.html)
Ha! Guess jobs health is non-issue as well:
"
Steve Jobs is reassuring some of his closest associates that rumors of his health are greatly exaggerated, but is telling those same people that he underwent a procedure this year related to his weight, the New York Times is reporting.

"[In] recent weeks, Mr. Jobs has reassured several people that he is doing well and that four years after a successful operation to treat a rare form of pancreatic cancer, he is cancer free," the paper said.
"

Anyway - I think Ted's single permanent thread idea is a good one... Might be the best compromise...

ken

Well, we could have one permanent "Future Apple Products Speculation Thread" with the understanding that there has to be a HTPC connection to the products we speculate about (Maxi, ACDs, Blu-ray, etc.)

Twice or three times a year is quite enough, thank you.

As Ken says, banning all future product speculation would rob us of the ability to imagine better Apple HT products, which may have an actual impact on future Apple products. After all, there is at least one AVS person (Imlucid) who works for Apple.


Unfortunately, he hasn't posted anything here since last February. I have been wondering why.

Don't you think that our Apple DVD Player complaints or our desire to play VIDEO_TS through Front Row had something to do with Apple vastly improving the player in Leopard and upgrading Front Row to allow VIDEO_TS and DVD cover art? I think that constant speculation about future Apple products doesn't happen in a vacuum, Apple does (sometimes) listen to us.


It would be nice if they did, but I suspect they pay more attention to their own forum.

I'm not shutting the thread down (unless it gets out of hand), I just don't see any point to it. Especially considering that, assuming Apple does introduce a wonderful new htpc product, there will be a long discussion about it then.

I'm leaving for a beer dinner in a few minutes, why don't you guys spend the next couple of hours researching displays that are Mac compatible or check which kinds of files will or won't play on ATV? Those are things we all want to know more about, aren't they?

Unfortunately, he hasn't posted anything here since last February. I have been wondering why.




huh?
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/search.php?searchid=10630842

ken

huh?
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/search.php?searchid=10630842


(Ah, yes, the dinner was superb.)

Try this:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/search.php?searchid=10631426

(Ah, yes, the dinner was superb.)

Try this:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/search.php?searchid=10631426

no way, jose'
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/search.php?searchid=10631790

Hope the Bier was excellent too; Love that Guinness.... :))

ken

Do you guys realize you're posting links to searches that provide no matches?

Do you guys realize you're posting links to searches that provide no matches?

It really is strange, isn't it? The searches obviously worked, which is where the URL comes from.

IAC, this should work!!! Here is his last post:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=13092235#post13092235

The beer, btw, Ken, was all kriek and gueuze (Belgian beers). I had a 3 Fonteinen lambik served from the cask that was worth all the fun I missed here :)

Unfortunately, he hasn't posted anything here since last February. I have been wondering why.
He's on Twitter where all the cool kids are. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple doesn't encourage forum posting for its minions.
...I just don't see any point to it. Especially considering that, assuming Apple does introduce a wonderful new htpc product, there will be a long discussion about it then.
See I think that talking about the Apple products we imagine are so much more fun than talking about the real thing -- if they are insanely great, why talk about them -- we can just play with them.

Glad the beer was good -- I'm off for tasty Japanese food and Johnnie To's new movie -- Mad Detective

you guys are making me hungry... love the Japanese teppanyaki... and the Belgian's are awesome... I'm off to Portland OR next month for micro-brewery heaven...

back on topic -
I'm with Ted..
Let's have a thread..
to have some fun..
until Apple's done..

(lame limerick - sorry)

ken

...or maybe touchscreen....
How about a tablet with iPod/iPhone touch capabilities, no joystick mouse, SSD, a some of the wireless tricks of the MacBook Air?

How about a tablet with iPod/iPhone touch capabilities, no joystick mouse, SSD, a some of the wireless tricks of the MacBook Air?
The iTablet is pretty much guaranteed -- the question is how big (1.5 x size of iPhone or .75 times size of MacBook screen or somewhere in between). And what flavor of OS X? And when will it be released.

agreed Ted - and I also think it might well encompass the things Jim mentions; Full touch, ssd, and I'm hoping a new level of ATV-iTunes server (not requiring a mac and capsule coordinated). I really relate to Rock's suggestion, that all new product may incorporate touch interface as well...

ken

Apple could very well lead the industry due to their approach with industrial design, and a "simple" touch screen tablet, with a good form factor also leading the industry, would be another home run for them. No one seems to be able to produce a worthy candidate for this segment, so let Apple lead the way! Shouldn't a true "tablet" be no thicker than a tablet of paper??? All the above would lead to this, and the Air has set the standard, although not one that fits all the criteria.

Apple could very well lead the industry due to their approach with industrial design, and a "simple" touch screen tablet, with a good form factor also leading the industry, would be another home run for them. No one seems to be able to produce a worthy candidate for this segment, so let Apple lead the way! Shouldn't a true "tablet" be no thicker than a tablet of paper??? All the above would lead to this, and the Air has set the standard, although not one that fits all the criteria.

Don't forget something that kicks Kindle to the curb too..

ABC News is reporting on the rumored MacBook Touch (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/AheadoftheCurve/Story?id=5443989). Can you imagine a better strato-lounger laptop for controlling the home theater? And doing a lot of other things?

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Technology/macrumor_080724_mn.jpg

Don't forget something that kicks Kindle to the curb too..
There is already (at least one) iPhone app that lets you download commercial eBooks -- eReader. Unfortunately based on the free book they throw in (Last of the Mohicans) the thing is a mess -- slow and buggy. Hopefully they'll fix it soon.

Stanza on the other hand is GREAT, but works with public domain books only.

ABC News is reporting on the rumored MacBook Touch (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/AheadoftheCurve/Story?id=5443989). Can you imagine a better strato-lounger laptop for controlling the home theater? And doing a lot of other things?

http://a.abcnews.com/images/Technology/macrumor_080724_mn.jpg

yeah, but.. do you have to buy 2? one as the controller, one as the player?

Wireless video is just right around the corner. :-)

yeah, but.. do you have to buy 2? one as the controller, one as the player?

assuming it runs iTunes, you would only need one - in fact (as wildrock says) - I can't imagine much of anything you could(n't) do and with wireless video to the TV - that could be killer-app for family room control...

ken

assuming it runs iTunes, you would only need one - in fact (as wildrock says) - I can't imagine much of anything you could do and with wireless video to the TV - that could be killer-app for family room control...

ken

Wireless HDMI (or equivalent) (video + audio) would be great... the little digging I've done on this tho shows items that are in the $500 range :(

Then again, this would qualify as a new tech that would eat in to margins and be ahead of the curve.

Wireless HDMI (or equivalent) (video + audio) would be great... the little digging I've done on this tho shows items that are in the $500 range :(

Then again, this would qualify as a new tech that would eat in to margins and be ahead of the curve.

Ok, I did a little more digging. The new WirelessHD spec (http://www.wirelesshd.org/index.html) was finalized earlier this year. It looks to be the missing "link."

Add to that SiBeam's (http://www.sibeam.com/) new chipset, the OmniLink60 (http://news.soft32.com/announcing-worlds-first-wirelesshd-chipset-solutions_5788.html) (or some other solution that inevitable will show up to compete), and you have the perfect combo of a multi-touch tablet/laptop, iTunes, and Internet receiver. What more could you want? Truffles?

For those averse to clicking on links:

"SiBEAM’s transmitter and receiver chipsets employ SiBEAM’s Omnilink60 advanced adaptive beam-forming systems that dynamically steer content to the specific receiving station, maintaining stable connectivity regardless of any obstacles that may obstruct its path, without compromising quality. Additionally, Omnilink60’s high speed micro array antennas enable efficient use of power for better reception and longer distance at a higher bandwidth.

Further, each embedded processor handles the WirelessHD protocol that is capable of joining, leaving and creating an intelligent Wireless Video Area Network (WVAN) which can consist of a variety of WirelessHD-enabled devices, including a high-definition television, high-definition disc player, digital video recorder, digital video camera, digital A/V player and more. With OmniLink60 technology, each SiBEAM-enabled device will not only maintain awareness of other devices in the network, but also that device’s capabilities, such as whether it is a digital video camera, game console or set-top box.

With the availability of the SK9110TXRX WirelessHD Development Kit, SiBEAM technology can be easily and affordably integrated by consumer electronics manufacturers, PC manufacturers and network infrastructure providers into their next generation wireless communications product lines, providing consumers with a simple, secure way to connect, play and transmit their high definition (HD) content."

Unfortunately, I couldn't find any evidence of Apple's involvement with this tech. What I would do if I were Apple, were be to put this transmitter into laptops/tablets, and then add the receiver to an AirPort Express Base Station, and pop an HDMI and optical port into it. Of course, with WirelessHD being a standard, anybody can make a receiver, so there would be lots of cheaper alternatives.

---

update:

Ok, no sooner than when I posted that, an article showed up on the front page of AVS about WiHD's competition (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1052579): WHDI (Wireless Home Digital Interface), and it's developer Amimon (http://www.amimon.com/). So this whole battle for blasting 1080p wirelessly through the house is really heating up. Time that with Apple's mystery product(s), and I can't hardly help but speculate that Apple's got to jump in here, or they're going to get lost in the dust and be a follower, and not a leader.

cool - that would be interesting and it could be a combination effect;
Here's some speculation on 'other-than-Intel' chips coming; Might be in addition to, or in lieu of... (Or total speculation of course) - Just another interesting thought:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/28/apples_next_gen_macs_to_have_something_special_under_the_hoo d.html

ken

cool - that would be interesting and it could be a combination effect;
Here's some speculation on 'other-than-Intel' chips coming; Might be in addition to, or in lieu of... (Or total speculation of course) - Just another interesting thought:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/28/apples_next_gen_macs_to_have_something_special_under_the_hoo d.html

ken

The article seems to lead to much mis-speculation (IMO). Apple is still going to use Intel as the main proc.. it may simply be that the accompanying 'chipset' is not Intel... tho I do not understand how that gains them any competitive edge that another competitor could not also choose to use.

The implication from the earnings report was that others would not be able to follow in Apple's footsteps. So unless PA semi cranks out a chipset to match up with the new Intel chips...

shrug.

yea - the only thing I could think of was the newly purchase chip company; Also, Jobs said very clearly when they did that Intel was their partner for as far out as he could see; If this has any merit to me, it would have to be a parallel chip set that performed specialized functions - maybe for touch...

But I agree with your assessment, this take seems like a long shot... We'll just tuck it away for now...

ken

If you look closely, there are several reasons for Apple to go with a custom chip set. As Ken said, maybe multi touch is going to move to hardware and have a chip for it.

Then take blu-ray. How the Mac deals with decoding and drm is drastically different than a Windows-based PC. Maybe Apple wants a custom chip for this purpose. Then the wireless HD video. There's already two custom chips for it. How many PC laptops want a custom wireless HD chip embedded? NOt many. And Apple is moving to wireless peripherals for external drives like it did with the Air. Another custom chip needed.

Apple says they want reduced heat over current Intel chipsets. Meaning longer battery life.

So there's 5 reasons to go custom. Make it six: PA Semi, like Zim mentioned. Apple didn't buy them out of kindness. And a custom chipset almost has to mean increased costs, but it brings more diverse applications. Apple wants to differentiate so as to push marketshare--which means moving into new niches.

So there's a lot of stars aligning here. Mix in Snow Leopard, and we're going to see some interesting products between now and MacWorld. I've already brought forth the argument that OS X (and particularly Snow Leopard) is the heart of the Apple product matrix. NOw Apple wants to bring forward a chipset that it is in control of to have a hardware base by which to leverage Snow Leopard and all of the other technologies across the platform.

My call? Starts with a tablet with multi touch, bluray, and wireless HD video. No mouse needed. Low heat generation, very power efficient, long battery life. An inductive charger cradle to set it in. Some great software to emulate a keyboard. 11" and 13" models. SSD. Built similarly to a MacBook Air. Call it the MacBook Touch, TouchBook, or iTab(let). $1299, $1499. Wireless everything. Bluetooth/IR. Video cam and mic. No ports, except maybe one USB port for service, or the odd 3rd party add on.

Any takers?

Update:

No sooner than I write this and move on in my morning readings, than two more pieces of the puzzle show up.

MultiTouch.Framework (http://hci.rwth-aachen.de/multitouch) just announced they are working on, well a multitouch framework for OS X (and they're from Denmark Further!). Check out the video demo of what they are working on. They are using an iPhone touch pad connected with a MacBook. Very cool. Say buh-bye mouse!

Then MDN takes this story a bit further (http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/18001/) and posits a MacBook with an iPhone like touchpad for a trackpad, or replace the keyboard with a full touchscreen and haptic technology (haptics combines some tactile feedback with your touch on a touchscreen).

My call? Starts with a tablet with multi touch, bluray, and wireless HD video. No mouse needed. Low heat generation, very power efficient, long battery life. An inductive charger cradle to set it in. Some great software to emulate a keyboard. 11" and 13" models. SSD. Built similarly to a MacBook Air. Call it the MacBook Touch, TouchBook, or iTab(let). $1299, $1499. Wireless everything. Bluetooth/IR. Video cam and mic. No ports, except maybe one USB port for service, or the odd 3rd party add on.

Any takers?

I'd take 2 of those in heart-beat. Something like this in the family room would be a whole new product category too (allowing an iPhone/iPod category merge). That's a nice round-up analysis Rock - I could really see that being a game changer if they pull it off. (parenthetically, A longer shot, might include a resurrection of the long discussed AppleTVs to go along with it)...

Either way, I'm in! :)

ken