From the front page of AVSforum...
Blu-ray index decreased just 12% Q3 2008. Price decrease may be bad sign for format...

Haven't many of us argued that Blu-ray player prices need to come down before the format takes off and becomes mainstream?

We need SALs cheaper than the PS3 and that perform almost as well.

Here is why I disagree with that article.
First, with the economy the way it is, current high prices will hinder adoption. The average consumers are still waiting to jump in. Once the price drops enough, they will in force.
Second, the Chinese are coming. We already have Funai, and more less expensive players are coming, that I think will ignite sales. Remember how people keep saying $99, $149, or $199 are the magic price points?
Third, movie studios who relase films on the format really would prefer CE prices to drop. They think "give away razors and sell the blades".

What do you guys think? I have said for a while now that come early next year when all the new Chinese players are out and really driving down prices, the Blu-ray format will take off.

I think it has to do more with the economy than lack of interest. and lack of interest because of a souring economy.

It is hard not to cut back with all the doom and gloom surround us. They still need $199 players this holiday though.

As far as buying in force, I don't think anyone will be buying anything "in force" just because of a price drop at this point. The GM employee sale doesn't seem to be working all that well either. It isn't always about price. By price, I don't mean cost.

People cutting back on $1 double cheeseburgers for budgetary reasons (not diet) is not because it is not cheap enough. It is because folks are looking to cut back regardless on what they consider luzury items as well. I am sure that DVd player sales will drop as well.

When folks look over their budget and decide to decrease spending in areas, it is always the luxuries that get hit first. For example, cable bill, cell phones, rentals subscriptions gift purchases, furniture and appliances. That is how it works in my household and most that I talk to. I talk to folks about their finance all the time in my job.

I think it has to do more with the economy than lack of interest. and lack of interest because of a souring economy.

It is hard not to cut back with all the doom and gloom surround us. They still need $199 players this holiday though.



I think you are right and because of the economy, lower price players are even more important. Once it gets to the point that a BD player is close to the same price as the average name-brand upscaler, then I think it will be a no brainer. If your DVD player breaks or you need a new one, then people could just buy the Blu player to be future proofed.

I think you are right and because of the economy, lower price players are even more important. Once it gets to the point that a BD player is close to the same price as the average name-brand upscaler, then I think it will be a no brainer. If your DVD player breaks or you need a new one, then people could just buy the Blu player to be future proofed.

Problem is that I think that point is the $99-$149 range. It will be quite some time until it gets there. You can't look at Oppos as the upscalers or even some of the upper end stuff from sony and Toshiba - most folks don't even know what an Oppo is. They will shop them against the $60-120 "upscalers" like the Philips and similarly price DVD recorders.

It's bad if the the price stays up...no, no...it's bad if the price comes down...no wait, it's bad if the price stays up....no, i'm sure it's.........

It's bad if the the price stays up...no, no...it's bad if the price comes down...no wait, it's bad if the price stays up....no, i'm sure it's.........

As it has become here, it's always about twisting the truth to fit the message one is trying to sell.

Just remember, the economy is cyclic. It won't be bad forever.

In the end lower BD player prices are good, but to a greater extent the software needs to drop more to sway consumers on the fence over.

As it has become here, it's always about twisting the truth to fit the message one is trying to sell.

Just remember, the economy is cyclic. It won't be bad forever.

In the end lower BD player prices are good, but to a greater extent the software needs to drop more to sway consumers on the fence over.

I don't think it is the software prices. I think that is more of an excuse than anything else. Too many people here point to the gouging at Bestbuy. Few people that I know even buy DVDs there let alone BDs. Alot of folks I know who can barely operate a computer get theirs either at online sites like Amazon or local places like Blockbuster or HD fromt the preowned section. Sometimes also from Walmart.

Too many think people are too incompetent to buy at amazon.com or online retailers. Has anyone been to malls recently at Christmas time? Local retailers are getting killed. More grandmothers and parents every year are buying online instead of in the stores. 86% of people who buy a car research online first (I am an exec in the auto business). The internet is not just for a select few.

You need to seperate the reasons from the excuses because they are not one and the same. It usually come down to price and value. When the desire to own outweighs the price that is being charged, people will buy... if the timing is right. What is holding back the value at this point is advertising and market awareness. By market awareness, I am talking about people realizing what BD actually offers from DVD upscaling to 1080p video and lossless audio. I am sure many folks don't even realize BD players can play DVDs. This is the first thing they need to work and I don't think they are doing this enough. Too many folks (including ones on here) think that HD VOD and HDM are the same in terms of quality of video and sound. There is so much misinformation that it is ridiculous. I think the BD group overestimated their impact of winning the initial stage of the format war when HD DVD went down. It was as if they expected people to suddenly rush in.

They need to build the awareness of the product, and then they need to persistently lower the price until they find the sweet spot until it sells. I don't mean drop down to $99. They should go to $250. Then $199. Then $169. Then $139 until they reach a point where mass adoption begins..... and then holdback on price lowering to recoup some costs.

This is a marketing perspective and not a pro-consumer perspective obviously. Too many folks on here throw out magical numbers. Only the market will tell tus what that threshold is and we as avsforum readers really aren't the judges as we are .... well - AVS entusiasts. If they dropped the price down to $99 and they completely sellout, the execs in charge should be fired because they charged too little. If they don't drop enough and another medium moves forward, they should be fired. Business ventures are calculated vicious gambles and really need to be planned - doesn't seem like there has ever been enough of that in the "HD War"

Here is my take.

Prices remained high this spring because there was a serious shortage of players: the format war had ended abruptly and manufacturers were unprepared. Retailers are unlikely to lower prices of SKU's that they cannot keep in stock.

Now, new models are coming out, and supplies are up. This, together with the coming holiday season, is bringing prices down rapidly. This is exactly what we all hoped for.

Now, comes this article, seemingly claiming that the price reductions point to problems with Blu-ray. No such thing! Of course, had prices not fallen, the article would still have pointed to problems with Blu-ray.

My prediction: by CES in January, it will be recognized that Blu-ray exceeded its sales expectations this holiday season.

The price index for Blu-ray players fell just 12 percent over all of Q3 2008, according to the company.

Shouldn't we atleast wait until Q3 is actually over before declaring how much prices have dropped for all of Q3? Or were they reving up the time machine?

I am watching an episode from Battlestar Gallactica in SD. Better than most movies I have seen recently - Blu Ray or DVD. It's the quality of the content :)

The first month or so I had a Blu Ray player I was watching close to 100% Blu Ray. 6 months later it's less than 20% if not less.

In the end, eye candy by itself is not sufficient. As the Blu Ray library builds the story will change. Most people I know will never ever pay a $20 premium over DVD to buy a Blu Ray over DVD. That is what my Best Buy wanted for Speed Racer today! I am betting they will have to cut prices....

Also, for some reason the recent player announcements are mostly in the premium price segment. Perhaps that is where people expect the action to be. That and the PS3. Who knows, Bose may do a Lifestyle Blu ray system as well :)

I am watching an episode from Battlestar Gallactica in SD. Better than most movies I have seen recently - Blu Ray or DVD. It's the quality of the content :)

The first month or so I had a Blu Ray player I was watching close to 100% Blu Ray. 6 months later it's less than 20% if not less.

In the end, eye candy by itself is not sufficient. As the Blu Ray library builds the story will change. Most people I know will never ever pay a $20 premium over DVD to buy a Blu Ray over DVD. That is what my Best Buy wanted for Speed Racer today! I am betting they will have to cut prices....

Also, for some reason the recent player announcements are mostly in the premium price segment. Perhaps that is where people expect the action to be. That and the PS3. Who knows, Bose may do a Lifestyle Blu ray system as well :)
I'm not sure what best buy you're looking at...SR is $10 more than a standard new issue dvd... for online order and store pickup. 6months ago, it would have been $25 more.

Players can be had for slightly more than a few hundred $$$.

I watch a mix of BD and UC dvd. Content is king but when content meets hdm...whoowee!!!!

I'm not sure what best buy you're looking at...SR is $10 more than a standard new issue dvd... for online order and store pickup. 6months ago, it would have been $25 more.

Players can be had for slightly more than a few hundred $$$.

I watch a mix of BD and UC dvd. Content is king but when content meets hdm...whoowee!!!!

Best Buy had Speed Racer at $34.99, DVD was $16.99. I ended up ordering from Amazon for $24.99 which means I need to wait 5 days or so now.

Here is my take.

Prices remained high this spring because there was a serious shortage of players: the format war had ended abruptly and manufacturers were unprepared. Retailers are unlikely to lower prices of SKU's that they cannot keep in stock.

Now, new models are coming out, and supplies are up. This, together with the coming holiday season, is bringing prices down rapidly. This is exactly what we all hoped for.

Now, comes this article, seemingly claiming that the price reductions point to problems with Blu-ray. No such thing! Of course, had prices not fallen, the article would still have pointed to problems with Blu-ray.

My prediction: by CES in January, it will be recognized that Blu-ray exceeded its sales expectations this holiday season.

In a normal economy yes. I have been an avid fan of BD, but what happened yesterday and today and what the economy holds over the next two years, not only will slow BD adoption, I now believe if the economy gets bad enough BD adoption maybe threatened. IMO there will be no retail holiday season this year to speak of. I don't know about your neck of the woods, but virtually everyone I know, clients, friends, family, none are buying anything, but food, gas and other necessities and that includes those with good incomes. It isn't very trendy right now to be out there buying useless material goods.

In a normal economy yes. I have been an avid fan of BD, but what happened yesterday and today and what the economy holds over the next two years, not only will slow BD adoption, I now believe if the economy gets bad enough BD adoption maybe threatened. IMO there will be no retail holiday season this year to speak of. I don't know about your neck of the woods, but virtually everyone I know, clients, friends, family, none are buying anything, but food, gas and other necessities and that includes those with good incomes. It isn't very trendy right now to be out there buying useless material goods.
Items purchased for entertainment puposes in the home will always represent good value.
Contrast a trip to the movies for 4 @ $60 (inc. Snacks/excluding travel cost) w/ $20 spent for a BD where you can pack in 4 to 8, not to mention repeat views. Sure, you had to buy the player but you also had to buy the car.
While the economy may not be in great shape, it always affects some more than others and people will make adjustments to hedge against the threat of bad times.
It's also a fact that it's trendy to be trendy. So while others might be telling you they're not buying anything but groceries and gas, have them also explain why Best Buy, Wally World, Target and all remain very busy.
Price cuts to BD will help CE companies and studios to weather the storm.

Problem is that I think that point is the $99-$149 range. It will be quite some time until it gets there. You can't look at Oppos as the upscalers or even some of the upper end stuff from sony and Toshiba - most folks don't even know what an Oppo is. They will shop them against the $60-120 "upscalers" like the Philips and similarly price DVD recorders.

I really think that very early next year we will hit those prices. That is if the 6 or so Chinese manufacturers come through. We already saw the Funai player on sale for about $199 ($299-$100), and so I think below $149 is not unreasonable.

Now, comes this article, seemingly claiming that the price reductions point to problems with Blu-ray. No such thing! Of course, had prices not fallen, the article would still have pointed to problems with Blu-ray.
Damned if they fall, damned if they don't.:D

My prediction: by CES in January, it will be recognized that Blu-ray exceeded its sales expectations this holiday season.

I don't think sales will be that great this holiday season, althought the BDA will spin it them some how so the do appear good. I really think it will be early next year when those prices really drop that we will see an explosion.
Of course if the prices have a large drop before the end of the year then you will be right.

Best Buy had Speed Racer at $34.99, DVD was $16.99. I ended up ordering from Amazon for $24.99 which means I need to wait 5 days or so now.
Best Buy has Speed Racer for $25.99 on blu-ray in store.
Also, the 2-disc DVD with extras, in which the blu-ray has is $22.99.

Best Buy has Speed Racer for $25.99 on blu-ray in store.
Also, the 2-disc DVD with extras, in which the blu-ray has is $22.99.


This is a ridiculous price to pay for this movie. And it has no HD AUDIO!!!!


That is the lamest part of the price.


*NOTE- I bought the BD for 32 after tax from CC. I am stupid about this stuff most consumers today see that as a half a tank of gas.

Here is my take.

Prices remained high this spring because there was a serious shortage of players: the format war had ended abruptly and manufacturers were unprepared. Retailers are unlikely to lower prices of SKU's that they cannot keep in stock.

Now, new models are coming out, and supplies are up. This, together with the coming holiday season, is bringing prices down rapidly. This is exactly what we all hoped for.

Now, comes this article, seemingly claiming that the price reductions point to problems with Blu-ray. No such thing! Of course, had prices not fallen, the article would still have pointed to problems with Blu-ray.

My prediction: by CES in January, it will be recognized that Blu-ray exceeded its sales expectations this holiday season.

Exactly, I got a new HDTV for the living room last November (just 10 months ago btw) and I just saw an add on the internet where it is $500 off what I paid when I picked it up on sale -- 25% below the sale price. This just goes to show how HDTV is DOOMED to FAIL ;)

[QUOTE=rlsmith;14677320]Here is my take.
Now, new models are coming out, and supplies are up. This, together with the coming holiday season, is bringing prices down rapidly. This is exactly what we all hoped for.QUOTE]

Front the AVSForum Front Page:
"Blu-ray Disc Association Says Prices Won’t Drop Soon
Volume has to increase before player prices can drop, says the Blu-ray Disc Association."

Oooops!

[QUOTE=rlsmith;14677320]Here is my take.
Now, new models are coming out, and supplies are up. This, together with the coming holiday season, is bringing prices down rapidly. This is exactly what we all hoped for.QUOTE]

Front the AVSForum Front Page:
"Blu-ray Disc Association Says Prices Won’t Drop Soon
Volume has to increase before player prices can drop, says the Blu-ray Disc Association."

Oooops!

Wishfull thinking on their part.
They will drop prices on the older models or they won't sell many. I see Sams selling the 301 for a lot less than 1 year ago.

Then why say otherwise?
Well, if they said they were dropping prices RSN, what would happen to sales today? Answer: they would dry up as people would be stupid to buy now, knowing that there would be a "big price drop right around the corner". When I got my PS3 I had been waiting for a long time, then the "rumor" of a price drop was floated around so I waited even longer. Sure enough, in about six weeks there was an add leak and I jumped in BEFORE they went on sale to make sure I could get one (thanks to Curcuit City's 30 day price protection program). I waited for a sale for my "new" HDTV 10 months ago and got it for about $300 less than the regular price. Of course today its $500 less than what I paid, but knowing this I would not miss my last year of HDTV bliss.

BWT, check this site where the first digital wrist watches are featured for over $3000 each originally. http://www.oldpulsars.com/ Prices do change over time don't they.

Front the AVSForum Front Page:
"Blu-ray Disc Association Says Prices Won’t Drop Soon
Volume has to increase before player prices can drop, says the Blu-ray Disc Association."

Oooops!

I suspect that they are keeping their game face for higher software prices in Q4. They know that for full scale acceptance HDM can't hold a 1.5x to 2x premium at street prices.

As far as downloads, I am sure it will be challenging, but "HD" downloads are still aimed at the rental market. I don't see any services offering a pay once for unlimited view options on "HD" downloads.

Maybe the BDA is getting heat from retailers telling them to lower the average MSRP on software. Basically, they are priced so high that few are sold other than during sales.

I suspect that they are keeping their game face for higher software prices in Q4. They know that for full scale acceptance HDM can't hold a 1.5x to 2x premium at street prices.:rolleyes:

At least one major studio (Warner) has already committed to lowering prices, and Q4 is always a price reduction period, so I have no idea where you're coming up with this.
As far as downloads, I am sure it will be challenging, but "HD" downloads are still aimed at the rental market. I don't see any services offering a pay once for unlimited view options on "HD" downloads.And yet, according to NPD, downloads still make up only 0.6% of spending (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6596818.html), compared to 81% for discs (of which about 8% is Blu-ray) and 18% for theaters. That's not just "challenging" for downloads, that's embarrassing.
Maybe the BDA is getting heat from retailers telling them to lower the average MSRP on software. Basically, they are priced so high that few are sold other than during sales.Not even close to the truth. As pointed out above of now, it's selling better than everything but DVD and theaters.

At least one major studio (Warner) has already committed to lowering prices, and Q4 is always a price reduction period, so I have no idea where you're coming up with this.

a couple posts up maybe (not mine, so I won't defend it)?
Front the AVSForum Front Page:
"Blu-ray Disc Association Says Prices Won’t Drop Soon
Volume has to increase before player prices can drop, says the Blu-ray Disc Association."


as for...
And yet, according to NPD, downloads still make up only 0.6% of spending, compared to 81% for discs
I remember 2 years ago when HDM was less than 0.6% of the market and yet we have Sony saying it will replace DVD in a couple years.

None of us can predict the future. (Actually if you can, let me know. There are some bets I like to place this weekend :D).

a couple posts up maybe (not mine, so I won't defend it)?Which is (a) concerning player prices instead of software like he says, and (b) already being proven wrong by the official and unofficial price drops that have already started.
I remember 2 years ago when HDM was less than 0.6% of the market and yet we have Sony saying it will replace DVD in a couple years.

None of us can predict the future. (Actually if you can, let me know. There are some bets I like to place this weekend :D).2 years ago, Blu-ray had just come out, whereas downloads had already been out for a couple years. It also requires an infrastructure and technology model that the world outside Japan and South Korea doesn't have.

Which is (a) concerning player prices instead of software like he says, and (b) already being proven wrong by the official and unofficial price drops that have already started.
2 years ago, Blu-ray had just come out, whereas downloads had already been out for a couple years. It also requires an infrastructure and technology model that the world outside Japan and South Korea doesn't have.

JBlacklow,

I want BD to succeed, but the perception in the market is that software is overpriced. Maybe 1.5x to 2.0x is a little overstated, but I don't understand why the BDA head is publically stating prices will remain high until volume increases. Possible customers are not going to be excited to jump in when the BDA is saying current prices (MSRPs of $30 and up for new releases) are going to be the norm.

'of which about 8% is Blu-ray'

"Despite premium pricing for hardware, Pioneer’s Parsons noted that a respectable 15 million Blu-ray discs have sold since the format’s inception in 2006."


http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/annual/2007.php

8% ? not even close.
The 2007 top 100 total alone totals 350336324 discs sold

15 million (2years total for br) against that calculates to less than 4.5%.

Given that it's only sales for top 100 disc for 2007 alone the blu ray percentage must be lower.

IF as JBlacklow says, downloads are .6% and disks (DVD + Blu Ray) make up 81% what does the other 18.4% consist of?

Best Buy has Speed Racer for $25.99 on blu-ray in store.
Also, the 2-disc DVD with extras, in which the blu-ray has is $22.99.
Not near me! Not when I checked. Looks like your Best Buy is pricing their Blu Rays lower than they are doing here, whereas DVD prices are higher at your Best Buy. Interesting....

It's bad if the the price stays up...no, no...it's bad if the price comes down...no wait, it's bad if the price stays up....no, i'm sure it's.........

Better if prices come down. How can it be better if prices stay up?

'of which about 8% is Blu-ray'

"Despite premium pricing for hardware, Pioneer’s Parsons noted that a respectable 15 million Blu-ray discs have sold since the format’s inception in 2006."


http://www.the-numbers.com/dvd/charts/annual/2007.php

8% ? not even close.
The 2007 top 100 total alone totals 350336324 discs sold

15 million (2years total for br) against that calculates to less than 4.5%.

Given that it's only sales for top 100 disc for 2007 alone the blu ray percentage must be lower.Ah, Frank, your constant missing of my points continues anon.

Read the article (which is talking about monthly spending this year), and remember that I'm talking about the present, not an entirely different tracking period that is not even remotely close to what is being discussed. Unless, of course, you feel like arguing with NPD, Nielsen, and all the other more or less official sources for this data.
IF as JBlacklow says, downloads are .6% and disks (DVD + Blu Ray) make up 81% what does the other 18.4% consist of?As I said in the post, the ~18% is for theaters.

Blu ray is stalling in a niche market. To get it going price levels have to drop to dvd pricing levels.

The problem for the studio's is that production and replication costs are far higher than for dvd. Without the premium they end up with less margin than a dvd release.

Warner is experimenting with a few cheaper 'bare bones' releases. Older movies for around $17 which can be had from dvd bargain bins for $6 or less...

ce manufaturers have a different problem. They must make up for the dollar value loss.
Look for quick follow up player models with 'additional features' to justify putting a higher price tag on it.

It looks like the reported price drop is mainly caused by close out sales of obselete player models and is not a concerted BDA pricing strategy.

I believe that retailers will start phasing out low price DVD Players in favor of Blu Ray hardware starting sometime in Q4.

The idea is to make you leave with an HDTV + Monster cables + Blu Ray player and keep coming back for the media. The retail industry is pretty much beting their Q4 holiday season on Blu Ray. It IS their PS3 for 2008-9.

:rolleyes:

At least one major studio (Warner) has already committed to lowering prices, and Q4 is always a price reduction period, so I have no idea where you're coming up with this.
And yet, according to NPD, downloads still make up only 0.6% of spending (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6596818.html), compared to 81% for discs (of which about 8% is Blu-ray) and 18% for theaters. That's not just "challenging" for downloads, that's embarrassing.
Not even close to the truth. As pointed out above of now, it's selling better than everything but DVD and theaters.

First, is 8% Blu Ray share confirmed or just a guess?

Second, when people talk about downloads should they factor in subscription based models? For instance, I would not pay for HBO (HD and SD) if I didn't have the ability to record the content on a DVR. Is that a form of downloadable content? What about people paying TiVo to download content? Are you saying fewer people use Tivo than Blu Ray? hard for me to believe.

Bottomline is that the downloadable market has different business models that need to be accounted for to get a true measure of what is going on. For now, the pay per movie downloadable market is pretty small.

But Apple is supposed to do around $150M in itunes movie sales this year. IF as you claim Blu Ray is 10X as big as the entire digital downloadable market we're talking over $1.5B or so.

Also, Are these NPD numbers before or after Apple relaunched their itunes movie business in March?

The download market in the end is more than just movie purchases.

All I see are Blu Ray sales comparisons based on top 20 titles. Are you diving the YTD DVD sales and dividing by the YTD Blu Ray sales to get the ratio? Is this data from Neilson. If yes. Then you know it doesn't include Walmart.

Also, do you know what the respective YTD numbers are? in units and $.

Thanks

Not near me! Not when I checked. Looks like your Best Buy is pricing their Blu Rays lower than they are doing here, whereas DVD prices are higher at your Best Buy. Interesting....

What's your store? Best Buy matches there own website. Plus you can simply order using "In store pick up" from there site which does have it $25.99 as 42plasmaman said.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?id=pcat17005&type=page&tab=1&_requestid=152904

Blu ray is stalling in a niche market. To get it going price levels have to drop to dvd pricing levels.Who's saying it's a niche?

At this point, it's the third best-selling video format in history (behind DVD and VHS).
The problem for the studio's is that production and replication costs are far higher than for dvd. Without the premium they end up with less margin than a dvd release.Again, this has been disproven time and time again, as early as the beginning of this year. Your stance would be more believable had you even bothered to read about those.
Warner is experimenting with a few cheaper 'bare bones' releases. Older movies for around $17 which can be had from dvd bargain bins for $6 or less...
ce manufaturers have a different problem. They must make up for the dollar value loss.
Look for quick follow up player models with 'additional features' to justify putting a higher price tag on it.I've yet to see anyone mention the need for "making up dollar loss" from negative profit margins when it comes to CE manufacturing. I'm sure you have links to evidence for this statement, right? Or should I expect the same protestations based on your personal anecdotes that I usually get?
It looks like the reported price drop is mainly caused by close out sales of obselete player models and is not a concerted BDA pricing strategy.Contrary to your belief, the two are not mutually exclusive, nor is it supported by any evidence on your part.

Not near me! Not when I checked. Looks like your Best Buy is pricing their Blu Rays lower than they are doing here, whereas DVD prices are higher at your Best Buy. Interesting....
Huh?
Just go to www.bestbuy.com
View the weekly ad in your area and see what the price is for Speed Racer on blu-ray. I bet it's the same price I posted.

Also, sometimes they don't put their sale price on all the shelves since they usually have the title in multiple locations/shelves.


fyi-
Single SR DVD is $14.99
2-disc SR DVD is $22.99

I believe that retailers will start phasing out low price DVD Players in favor of Blu Ray hardware starting sometime in Q4.


That's called suicide. They use low cost DVD players to get people in the doors. They know that if they advertise $20 DVD players they will get a lot more people to come in than if they sell $200 Blu-ray players.

I was just at CC and saw a lady buy 2 DVD players that we on sale for $24 each.


Just wait until January when the prices of BD players really drop. Players will really start to sell.

What's your store? Best Buy matches there own website. Plus you can simply order using "In store pick up" from there site which does have it $25.99 as 42plasmaman said.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?id=pcat17005&type=page&tab=1&_requestid=152904

Interesting. I should have done that. I walked and was shocked! We were really looking forward to seeing it. But Amazon has shipped my disk...

Who's saying it's a niche?

At this point, it's the third best-selling video format in history (behind DVD and VHS).
Again, this has been disproven time and time again, as early as the beginning of this year. Your stance would be more believable had you even bothered to read about those.

I've yet to see anyone mention the need for "making up dollar loss" from negative profit margins when it comes to CE manufacturing. I'm sure you have links to evidence for this statement, right? Or should I expect the same protestations based on your personal anecdotes that I usually get?
Contrary to your belief, the two are not mutually exclusive, nor is it supported by any evidence on your part.

For now it is a niche. But won't be after Q4 this year. Is Mac a niche product? If yes, then so is Blu Ray.

I think the point that's being missed out on is:

1) BD is the third fastest selling home media-please note the others; DVD, VHS and Laserdisc
2) The economy sucks right now
3) People are used to dvd-No FW updates constantly and pretty m uch hassle free viewing as well as finished spec on ALL players.
4) Not everyone has the setup to get BD,s full potential-big screen(yea I know, I have a 37inch screen and I clearly see a difference)and receivers and speaker set ups for the HD audio.
5) The PS3- this is probably the reason for BD small success and failure. I have the LG bh200. When I bought it at BB the first thing the guy said was"Why don't you get a PS3?" The PS3 is HDMI 1.3 but not 1.3a. Why don't they release a Pro version of the PS3 with this feature and a better upscaling chip?

I was always for 2 formats in the marketplace even though I felt both were not ready for the masses. That being said, I buy BD but not like I used too. I only buy the ones that have replay value....but I have money to blow on this stuff and most people dont these days.

"Or should I expect the same protestations based on your personal anecdotes that I usually get?"



You fail to see that br isn't doing as well as bda claims. With 15 million disc to date 8% is rather optimistic.
Looking at the chart for 2008 you can see that overall movie disc sales are considerably lower. Even if it's 8% it's 8% of a smaller pie.

So far br might even be in fifth place behind laserdisc and betamax.

You not getting more, not worth the effort. Get used to it.

Interesting. I should have done that. I walked and was shocked! We were really looking forward to seeing it. But Amazon has shipped my desk...
I use Amazon prime so I get the discs in 2 days with no shipping costs. They have been good to me...unlike BB.

For now it is a niche. But won't be after Q4 this year. Is Mac a niche product? If yes, then so is Blu Ray.

Great point. Last I saw BDs were about 5% of the disc market,and they may be up to 8% now. That is still a niche (I think Macs are a niche too, but that is another discussion).

BUT....in the next six months this will change. Either at the end of this year or early next player sales will really take off. The bad economy may slow that, but will not stop it.

it's 8% of a smaller pie.
So far br might even be in fifth place behind laserdisc and betamax.


VCDs have sold far more than BD. They are still very popular in Asia and India (and have been for a very long time).

From wikipedia:" ...with 8 million VCD players sold in China in 1997 alone, and more than half of all Chinese households owning at least one VCD player by 2005..."

I think the point that's being missed out on is:

1) BD is the third fastest selling home media-please note the others; DVD, VHS and Laserdisc
5) The PS3- this is probably the reason for BD small success and failure. I have the LG bh200. When I bought it at BB the first thing the guy said was"Why don't you get a PS3?" The PS3 is HDMI 1.3 but not 1.3a. Why don't they release a Pro version of the PS3 with this feature and a better upscaling chip?


1) You forgot VCD (see my post above).
5) the PS3 could easily provide better upscaling with zero modifications because it has more than enough power. Sony just needs to write better software, but they have no motavation to do so.

You fail to see that br isn't doing as well as bda claims. With 15 million disc to date 8% is rather optimistic.Again, read the article and get back to me when you see the differences between monthly sales and SI.
Looking at the chart for 2008 you can see that overall movie disc sales are considerably lower. Even if it's 8% it's 8% of a smaller pie.Nice try, but the facts kill that BS. Unless, of course you want to argue that no change somehow equals considerably lower. That's an argument I don't think you'd win.

Mid-year 2007 spending (overall and sell-through):

http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/20080721034317/www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/2007MidYear-Overall.jpghttp://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/20080721034317/www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/2007MidYear-Sales.jpg

Mid-year 2008 spending (overall and sell-through):

http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/20080721220451/www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/2008MidYearOverall-SMALL.jpghttp://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/20080721220534/www.videobusiness.com/contents/images/2008MidYearSales-SMALL.jpg


So far br might even be in fifth place behind laserdisc and betamax.We already know it's ahead of laserdisc, from EMA. I couldn't find Betamax figures, but even if it was to sell more, as the leading tape format for ~4 years Betamax was far from niche. And as for VCD, the article is talking about the US.
You not getting more, not worth the effort. Get used to it.I have no clue what this even means. Not getting more what?

1) You forgot VCD (see my post above).
5) the PS3 could easily provide better upscaling with zero modifications because it has more than enough power. Sony just needs to write better software, but they have no motavation to do so.

I was mostly talking American consumers but ok. I wonder, if BD doesnt take off this Xmas will it be considered a failure-as far as sales?

Items purchased for entertainment puposes in the home will always represent good value.
Contrast a trip to the movies for 4 @ $60 (inc. Snacks/excluding travel cost) w/ $20 spent for a BD where you can pack in 4 to 8, not to mention repeat views. Sure, you had to buy the player but you also had to buy the car.
While the economy may not be in great shape, it always affects some more than others and people will make adjustments to hedge against the threat of bad times.
It's also a fact that it's trendy to be trendy. So while others might be telling you they're not buying anything but groceries and gas, have them also explain why Best Buy, Wally World, Target and all remain very busy.
Price cuts to BD will help CE companies and studios to weather the storm.

You should look at Best Buy and how much their earnings/profits are down recently and wait till this economic news gets worse and watch how people pull back even more which is the upcoming holiday season. Sure some with disposable incomes who are 20/30 yr olds and have no children and are single may keep things floating a little bit, but the majority of people are not spending money at all except at discount stores like WalMart, and Target for necessities.

Here is the most important factor. This is not just a threat of bad times or a simple recession. This is turning into the worst economic times in our generation and maybe as bad as the depression. It looks different right now because most banking transactions are done electronically so people aren't making a run on the banks, but Wall Street is seeing unprecendented failures which haven't ever happened before. It also looks different today because there is a middle class, which in the depression there were rich and poor. Many rich lost their ass and for the poor things got even worse. Wall Street has seemingly always been 6-9 months ahead of the curve/economy. It seems with these banks failures and takeovers that Wall Street got caught off guard and is now behind the curve. The fallout from all of this over the next two years is going to be very ugly. Again, the worst hasn't really begun or hit yet for most average American consumers as the trickle down takes a while.

I was mostly talking American consumers but ok. I wonder, if BD doesnt take off this Xmas will it be considered a failure-as far as sales?

Depends what it is being compared against.

DVD still overall was the fastest growing consumer-based format in history.

Comparing BD's growth to DVD's growth at the same time may show that DVD had an advantage.

Comparing BD against LD is not even a contest. BD disc sales are far beyond what LD ever sold. LD was niche that even many "high" demand titles were licensed to LD specific companies. DVD was the end of that practice by the major studios for high profile titles. Many LDs were manufactured and licensed to Image and Pioneer even at the height of that formats popularity.

BD is not failure, but it is not a home run either. It may never see DVD like numbers due to the fact HDTVs still are not the "standard" in many US homes.
No reason to buy Blu if you only have SD sets.

Will BD last long enough to supplant DVD? It is going to take a while to see the outcome of this question.

I originally believe BD woould take over DVD by the end of 2010. I now believe it will take at least another year for that to happen due to the economy. My Hollywood video is expanding and I can see the push to replace DVD happening, but it is going to take time.

Again, read the article and get back to me when you see the differences between monthly sales and SI.
Nice try, but the facts kill that BS. Unless, of course you want to argue that no change somehow equals considerably lower. That's an argument I don't think you'd win.

We already know it's ahead of laserdisc, from EMA. I couldn't find Betamax figures, but even if it was to sell more, as the leading tape format for ~4 years Betamax was far from niche. And as for VCD, the article is talking about the US.
I have no clue what this even means. Not getting more what?

I guess it depends on who you listen to...
Consumers spent less on the disks in 2007 than the year before, the first drop in DVD revenues since they became a household staple. And this year is unlikely to be any better, reports Pali Research.

Sales of Blu-ray disks will triple, say analysts Richard Greenfield and Mark Smaldon in a new report. But that won't make up for the steady decline in other disk sales. Overall, the analysts predict that studio disk sales will drop nearly 5 percent this year, after a fall of nearly 2 percent last year.

The future is unlikely to get much brighter, the Pali analysts say. They fret that pirates will steal more video as bandwidth increases across cable and telco networks. Oh, and then there are the legal alternatives: "We are seeing an ongoing evolution in digital distribution (both paid download and advertising-supported models), which cannot be positive long term for the physical formats such as the DVD."


I am not sure who Pali Research is so I will not defend them. Also, I think that was from March 2008, so it is a little dated, but it does agree with Frank Derks .

I guess it depends on who you listen to...


Markets always plan on growth, but markets are cyclic like everything else.

Even though DVD sales are declining it is still a huge revenue stream for the industry. The fact is that DVD caused an exponential increase in the home video market.

BD does represent a growth opportunity in the optical disc market. It might not be enough to make up for the decline, but it COULD someday.

I quit buying DVDs 3-4 years ago in anticipation of the new formats. So I am part of the reason for the declining business, but I am also purchasing movies (on BD) at a rate I have not done since my early DVD adopter days. So I am part of the BD growth potential.

Q4 will be telling for BDs future even in this down economy.

BD is not failure, but it is not a home run either. It may never see DVD like numbers due to the fact HDTVs still are not the "standard" in many US homes.True. The problem is people like Frank see DVD--the most successful and fastest-growing video format ever--as the baseline. Therefore, to them, anything on a growth curve less than DVD is somehow "failing", "stalled", "niche", or any number of illogical descriptors. It's like saying that any millionaires making less than Bill Gates are poor.

Markets always plan on growth, but markets are cyclic like everything else.

Even though DVD sales are declining it is still a huge revenue stream for the industry. The fact is that DVD caused an exponential increase in the home video market.

BD does represent a growth opportunity in the optical disc market. It might not be enough to make up for the decline, but it COULD someday.

I quit buying DVDs 3-4 years ago in anticipation of the new formats. So I am part of the reason for the declining business, but I am also purchasing movies (on BD) at a rate I have not done since my early DVD adopter days. So I am part of the BD growth potential.

Q4 will be telling for BDs future even in this down economy.

I agree. I will bet anything that the % of BD sales will grow faster than the % of DVD sales.:D

And to reiterate what I said in the OP, the fact that prices of player sales decreased 12% in a quarter is NOT a bad sign for Blu-ray.

True. The problem is people like Frank see DVD--the most successful and fastest-growing video format ever--as the baseline. Therefore, to them, anything on a growth curve less than DVD is somehow "failing", "stalled", "niche", or any number of illogical descriptors. It's like saying that any millionaires making less than Bill Gates are poor.

I would still say niche is OK to use. DVD is currently main stream, BD is a niche. Windows is mainstream, Mac OS is a niche. Gasoline cars are mainstream, hybrids and electric cars are a niche. All that may change, but as of this minute, that the way it is.

btw, in 30 years there maybe more hybrid and electric cars than gas, who knows?

True. The problem is people like Frank see DVD--the most successful and fastest-growing video format ever--as the baseline. Therefore, to them, anything on a growth curve less than DVD is somehow "failing", "stalled", "niche", or any number of illogical descriptors. It's like saying that any millionaires making less than Bill Gates are poor.

It seems we are in agreement. I too think there are a lot of research groups and enthusiats using DVD acceptance curve as a baseline.

Again we are only two years in and even two years into DVD it was still not evident DVD was going to be a slam dunk for the industry. CC's failed DIVX did not concede until June 1999 and it took another year and a half for DVD to truly become the preferred home video format.

Hey, at least Lucas is giving us the new Indy movie in less than a month. We had to wait almost two years after the VHS release for Phantom Menace to show up on DVD.

You should look at Best Buy and how much their earnings/profits are down recently and wait till this economic news gets worse and watch how people pull back even more which is the upcoming holiday season. Sure some with disposable incomes who are 20/30 yr olds and have no children and are single may keep things floating a little bit, but the majority of people are not spending money at all except at discount stores like WalMart, and Target for necessities.

Here is the most important factor. This is not just a threat of bad times or a simple recession. This is turning into the worst economic times in our generation and maybe as bad as the depression. It looks different right now because most banking transactions are done electronically so people aren't making a run on the banks, but Wall Street is seeing unprecendented failures which haven't ever happened before. It also looks different today because there is a middle class, which in the depression there were rich and poor. Many rich lost their ass and for the poor things got even worse. Wall Street has seemingly always been 6-9 months ahead of the curve/economy. It seems with these banks failures and takeovers that Wall Street got caught off guard and is now behind the curve. The fallout from all of this over the next two years is going to be very ugly. Again, the worst hasn't really begun or hit yet for most average American consumers as the trickle down takes a while.

i hate qft's, but, qft... that's a pretty good picture of reality these days... i would say that the great majority of us who are homeowners/head of households/middle class these days have scaled back discretionary spending significantly, with not a lot of prospects for the holiday season... that doesn't bode well for "the economy" getting healthier any time soon... it's not like we've had any choice... our non-discretionary spending (primarily fuel, energy and food) has gone through the roof, regardless of what the "official" inflation number is...

bluray could be the greatest thing since sliced bread... but given the economic circumstances it's being introduced in, it's got a really tough row to hoe... :( nothing unique about bluray with that either... if people haven't got money to spend, they can't buy your product...

VCDs have sold far more than BD. They are still very popular in Asia and India (and have been for a very long time).

From wikipedia:" ...with 8 million VCD players sold in China in 1997 alone, and more than half of all Chinese households owning at least one VCD player by 2005..."

VCD is also big in India. Have been on work there several times and many stores sell VCDs. DVDs are considered expensive :)

I agree with Hughmc ( Shocking! ),that the worst is yet to come concerning the economy. It's time for people here to greatly lower expectations with BD. For those that think it will take off this holiday season, forget it! People are worried about surviving, let alone what their entertainment purchases will be. There could not be a worst time than right now for a new product to try and get a foothold in this very unstable market. The CE industry is not stupid, they are not going to start replacing lower priced products ( DVD) with higher priced products ( BD ) during these very difficult times.

True. The problem is people like Frank see DVD--the most successful and fastest-growing video format ever--as the baseline. Therefore, to them, anything on a growth curve less than DVD is somehow "failing", "stalled", "niche", or any number of illogical descriptors. It's like saying that any millionaires making less than Bill Gates are poor.

You get me wrong. I wan't a HDM format. I'm willing to pay a premium. But not the current price.Close encounters is going for 39 euro over here.
That's over $50. On average I see 34 euro for new stuff and 24..27 for catalog. Over here br is going nowhere with these prices.

I think regular folks see DVD as the family car, BR as the muscle/super car.
Everybody likes supercars but most folk will do with a family car.
DVD will not be replaced by DVD as long it's more expensive.

failing, maybe if studio's are forced to drop blu ray price levels to DVD levels they might loose interrest.
Imo they must lower prices to 'compete' with DVD's commodity status.

Stalling is what is happening imo. I'm looking at retail bins sections that do not grow for at least 5 months in a row.
After 2 years DVD sold many more disks than this 15 million.

The current niche is the early adopter home enthiousiats market. That's us, we keep buying movies regardless of economics. That might skew the ratio in favor of br but the overall picture is that movie sales are down considerably.

Just compare the charts '07 and '08 linked in a previous post. Some of this years block busters will makeup the difference later in the year but the crisis will take it's toll.

Ask a car salesman how cars are doing at the moment.

I agree with Hughmc ( Shocking! ),that the worst is yet to come concerning the economy. It's time for people here to greatly lower expectations with BD. For those that think it will take off this holiday season, forget it! People are worried about surviving, let alone what their entertainment purchases will be. There could not be a worst time than right now for a new product to try and get a foothold in this very unstable market. The CE industry is not stupid, they are not going to start replacing lower priced products ( DVD) with higher priced products ( BD ) during these very difficult times.

I agree with both of you and Hughmc. It's so hard to pinch penny's as it is already for so many people due the rising costs of basic survival goods.

I agree with both of you and Hughmc. It's so hard to pinch penny's as it is already for so many people due the rising costs of basic survival goods.

Really, I don't know about any of you, but I am not buying anything besides basics and haven't made any big dollar purchases in a while and I still have no extra money to play with. :(

I agree with Hughmc ( Shocking! ),that the worst is yet to come concerning the economy. It's time for people here to greatly lower expectations with BD. For those that think it will take off this holiday season, forget it! People are worried about surviving, let alone what their entertainment purchases will be. There could not be a worst time than right now for a new product to try and get a foothold in this very unstable market. The CE industry is not stupid, they are not going to start replacing lower priced products ( DVD) with higher priced products ( BD ) during these very difficult times.


USA has build a house of credit cars and it's about to collapse.
The current situation is that pillar companies now get yet again big loans just to survive the month to prevent a total collapse of financial markets.
There simply are not enough shirts to loose left.

You get me wrong. I wan't a HDM format. I'm willing to pay a premium. But not the current price.Close encounters is going for 39 euro over here.
That's over $50. On average I see 34 euro for new stuff and 24..27 for catalog. Over here br is going nowhere with these prices.And yet, you had no real problems with it previously.
failing, maybe if studio's are forced to drop blu ray price levels to DVD levels they might loose interrest.
Imo they must lower prices to 'compete' with DVD's commodity status.
When you reread the definition for commodity, feel free to revisit this argument, because otherwise it's laughable.
Stalling is what is happening imo. I'm looking at retail bins sections that do not grow for at least 5 months in a row.Again, you're using your personal anecdotal evidence, and applying it to a situation larger than you. This is pointless.
After 2 years DVD sold many more disks than this 15 million.
Repeat after me...

DVD was by far the fastest-growing and most successful video format in history. Using it as the baseline is the reverse of logic.
The current niche is the early adopter home enthiousiats market. That's us, we keep buying movies regardless of economics. That might skew the ratio in favor of br but the overall picture is that movie sales are down considerably.In what world is $10b/$6.2b in 2007 and $10.1b/$6.17b (for the math challenged that's +1% overall spending, -0.5% in sell-through) against predictions of -2% to -5% "down considerably"? I'd really like to know.
Just compare the charts '07 and '08 linked in a previous post. Some of this years block busters will makeup the difference later in the year but the crisis will take it's toll.
:confused:

What crisis? Are we even looking at the same charts? Using specific numbers, point out the "crisis" here.
Ask a car salesman how cars are doing at the moment.Two different economies. Entertainment, and especially home entertainment in these days of "staycations", is one of the few "recession-proof" markets (http://seekingalpha.com/article/91717-is-the-entertainment-industry-recession-proof).

Really, I don't know about any of you, but I am not buying anything besides basics and haven't made any big dollar purchases in a while and I still have no extra money to play with. :(

I feel you. I'm still spending money on non-essentials though like $22 a month on blockbuster rental plan as well as Comcast service. Still buying some toys for the boys and taking time away when I can. I can't wait until I my oldest is ready for public school sodon't have to pay for childcare for both of them ($1850 a month total:eek:).. I keep telling myself money comes and goes to ease the tension :cool:

I feel you. I'm still spending money on non-essentials though like $22 a month on blockbuster rental plan as well as Comcast service. Still buying some toys for the boys and taking time away when I can. I can't wait until I my oldest is ready for public school sodon't have to pay for childcare for both of them ($1850 a month total:eek:).. I keep telling myself money comes and goes to ease the tension :cool:

I forgot about my cable/net, cell, Hollywood video accounts as they are non-essentials. :o I have enjoyed them, but they sure add up. Realistically if I had to get rid of them, it would free up about 400.00 per month. :eek: 25+ years ago those luxuries were not even part of a person's budget, now they are taken for granted like they are necessities. :rolleyes: This all plays into why I rent BD's from Hollywood as opposed to buying and then my not buying does nothing to help BD adoption.

no HD AUDIO:eek:

I forgot about my cable/net, cell, Hollywood video accounts as they are non-essentials. :o I have enjoyed them, but they sure add up. Realistically if I had to get rid of them, it would free up about 400.00 per month. :eek: 25+ years ago those luxuries were not even part of a person's budget, now they are taken for granted like they are necessities. :rolleyes: This all plays into why I rent BD's from Hollywood as opposed to buying and then my not buying does nothing to help BD adoption.

No kidding... $400:eek:.. Comcast Triple play for $120 or so a month.. I'd drop it but the wife loves the DVR and insists that we have a house phone despite having 2 cell phones. I wish comcast let you just pay for channels you watched, of course they'd probably charge ridiculous amounts if they went that route.

Would be cool if the blu-ray selection improves in the DVDPlay kiosk at the front of our grocery store. They have some at $1.49 rentals but very limited selection.

I'm glad I never got into a Satelite radio subscription and some of the other monthy pinches out there.

I forgot about my cable/net, cell, Hollywood video accounts as they are non-essentials. :o I have enjoyed them, but they sure add up. Realistically if I had to get rid of them, it would free up about 400.00 per month. :eek: 25+ years ago those luxuries were not even part of a person's budget, now they are taken for granted like they are necessities. :rolleyes: This all plays into why I rent BD's from Hollywood as opposed to buying and then my not buying does nothing to help BD adoption.
Doesn't hollywood buy them for you to rent... and if demand is high doesn't it buy additional copies?

Doesn't hollywood buy them for you to rent... and if demand is high doesn't it buy additional copies?

Yes, but as I see it, if previous buyers are now renting....10 people who would have bought a particular title for example if there were no rentals, now are renting the one or two movies Hollywood is buying. Instead of 10 people buying 10 copies we now have HV buying two. And..is HV paying what the consumer would?

No kidding... $400:eek:.. Comcast Triple play for $120 or so a month.. I'd drop it but the wife loves the DVR and insists that we have a house phone despite having 2 cell phones. I wish comcast let you just pay for channels you watched, of course they'd probably charge ridiculous amounts if they went that route.

Would be cool if the blu-ray selection improves in the DVDPlay kiosk at the front of our grocery store. They have some at $1.49 rentals but very limited selection.

I'm glad I never got into a Satelite radio subscription and some of the other monthy pinches out there.

briankmonkey,

we must be living the same life. my wife too insists on a home phone (due to emergency 911 service). $140/mon to Comcast. wife can't live without the DVR. thankfully I never got into sat radio either. And don't even get me started on childcare expenses. ;)

We are being service fee'd to death. Thankfully I don't have any other vices besides being a HT fanantic.

Who's saying it's a niche?

At this point, it's the third best-selling video format in history (behind DVD and VHS).
Again, this has been disproven time and time again, as early as the beginning of this year. Your stance would be more believable had you even bothered to read about those.

I've yet to see anyone mention the need for "making up dollar loss" from negative profit margins when it comes to CE manufacturing. I'm sure you have links to evidence for this statement, right? Or should I expect the same protestations based on your personal anecdotes that I usually get?
Contrary to your belief, the two are not mutually exclusive, nor is it supported by any evidence on your part.


I would argue that Beta was higher as well as LD perhaps if you look at the global market. LD was really popular in Japan. furthermore VCd was uber popular in Asia.

Yes, but as I see it, if previous buyers are now renting....10 people who would have bought a particular title for example if there were no rentals, now are renting the one or two movies Hollywood is buying. Instead of 10 people buying 10 copies we now have HV buying two. And..is HV paying what the consumer would?

Typically the rental stores and kiosks have agreements with the studios for revenue sharing. I believe it has been like this since the later days of VHS.

So they are getting their copies at significantly reduced rates. But a portion of their profits go back to the studios.

briankmonkey,

we must be living the same life. my wife too insists on a home phone (due to emergency 911 service). $140/mon to Comcast. wife can't live without the DVR. thankfully I never got into sat radio either. And don't even get me started on childcare expenses. ;)

We are being service fee'd to death. Thankfully I don't have any other vices besides being a HT fanantic.

Exact reason she wants it as wel, I think you are right on the price as well. I'm glad I don't either aside from the gym which I'll never give up. Thankfully I don't smoke and I'm not a wine wine connoisseur, I'll take the cheap stuff :)

I forgot about my cable/net, cell, Hollywood video accounts as they are non-essentials. :o I have enjoyed them, but they sure add up. Realistically if I had to get rid of them, it would free up about 400.00 per month. :eek: 25+ years ago those luxuries were not even part of a person's budget, now they are taken for granted like they are necessities. :rolleyes: This all plays into why I rent BD's from Hollywood as opposed to buying and then my not buying does nothing to help BD adoption.

I got rid of my services the other month for netflix and BD. I was a heavy user and spending about $35-40 per month on both. I decided taht the quality was just not there for netflix watch instantly for my HTPC on my PJ screen. Well, I still have blockbuster though with their 3.99/month plan (2 per month). Figured I would atleast keep that. I am going back to buying the rest. I watch most of my TV shows on disk which was adding up.

I still have comcast internet and HD cable with on demand that I have negotiated down to $60/month including taxes and fees instead of about $80. Still too much though, but I really need the internet. And their service is giving me about 25 mbits which beats what verizon was giving me in bandwidth. Atleast until we get FIOS. Internet costs are a bit ridiculous though.

It still eats into my budget though. I find myself not buying as much luxury and am going to scale back my Christmas purchases this year.

Trying to cut costs across the board which also led to me retiring my HTPC as well for the most part.

What really scares me though is that i have a 13 year old daughter and 12 year old son two school ages apart... which mean cars and college coming up. depressing. and then they will boomerang of course and leach off me for another 4-6 years.

I have been going back to buying about about 10-12 per quarter (not at the release prices though... unless it is a special for like $15 or something) and selling all but maybe 8-10 back on ebay to keep my library manageable.

Same with my TV shows on disk.

:rolleyes:


And yet, according to NPD, downloads still make up only 0.6% of spending (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6596818.html), compared to 81% for discs (of which about 8% is Blu-ray) and 18% for theaters. That's not just "challenging" for downloads, that's embarrassing.
Not even close to the truth. As pointed out above of now, it's selling better than everything but DVD and theaters.

Well... that study validates the continued strength of DVD (If any thing). Here are some key parts to it:

1. DVD and DVD upconverters contributed to 89 percent of player sales. Not bad for a format in decline. Would you say?

2. They talk about the DVD digital download being a success. Looks, like this was another new feature that is helping DVD co-exist well with digital downloads. I've always felt that being able to save a digital copy of a DVD is an important differentiator of the format. I've brought this up many times when discussing a key limitation of Blu Ray.

3. An interesting while DVD upconverters are selling almost 3X as many units as Blu Ray, more people are aware of Blu Ray than upconverting DVD! 49% were aware of Blu Ray, but only 34% were aware of DVD upconverters. So, you're selling 3X as much with less awareness. WOW!

To summarize. People like round shiny disks and people like DVD. Everything else is pretty much noise...

I feel you. I'm still spending money on non-essentials though like $22 a month on blockbuster rental plan as well as Comcast service. Still buying some toys for the boys and taking time away when I can. I can't wait until I my oldest is ready for public school sodon't have to pay for childcare for both of them ($1850 a month total:eek:).. I keep telling myself money comes and goes to ease the tension :cool:


I can identify:


1. $200 for 2 ATT cell phones w/data
2. $200 for Cox (internet + cable + DVR + telephone)
3. 2 XM radios + 2 Sirius
4. Apple TV - around 10 movies a month
5. Blu Ray - around 2-4 purchases a month

Plus $1450 for day care for my daughter and another $800 for house help

Condo fees....$475

Gas....

WOW! Just keeps adding up :eek:

The only decline being talked about is Frank's posts on Blu-ray. BD doesn't have to take over DVD to be counted a success. It doesn't even need to match it. Unfortunately, some people can't grasp that concept. It's DVD numbers and speed or bust, everything below that is miserable.


Blu Ray is quite successful in it's own right already.


My closest analogy is think of DVD as Windows XP, Blu Ray as Mac OSX and download/network as Linux :)

ok, AVP wins LOL :0

I had to have my car serviced today (oil and filter and the 5,000 mile inspection) and on the way home I had to pee, so I stopped in Best Buy. This was around 12:15 in the afternoon and is one of the busiest Best Buy's in our area. Noticed in the parking lot there were only a few cars. Went inside and it was like a ghost town. Nobody in there, and even scarier was the cashiers all standing in the front of their registers waiting on anyone to come in and make a purchase. Was looking at Panasonic Viera plasmas, and the salesman told me that the past few days it has been really quiet and very few sales of anything. Makes you wonder.

And as far a cell phones go, get a Virgin Mobile phone that's a pay as you go. Every 3 months I have auto top up for $25 on my account. I've had this phone over a year now, and I have about $180 in credits. Mind you, I don't walk around with this thing glued to my ear chit chatting 24/7 like some I've seen, but it's there when I need it (and it beats the $100 monthly plans that most providers have).

I had to have my car serviced today (oil and filter and the 5,000 mile inspection) and on the way home I had to pee, so I stopped in Best Buy. This was around 12:15 in the afternoon and is one of the busiest Best Buy's in our area. Noticed in the parking lot there were only a few cars. Went inside and it was like a ghost town. Nobody in there, and even scarier was the cashiers all standing in the front of their registers waiting on anyone to come in and make a purchase. Was looking at Panasonic Viera plasmas, and the salesman told me that the past few days it has been really quiet and very few sales of anything. Makes you wonder.

And as far a cell phones go, get a Virgin Mobile phone that's a pay as you go. Every 3 months I have auto top up for $25 on my account. I've had this phone over a year now, and I have about $180 in credits. Mind you, I don't walk around with this thing glued to my ear chit chatting 24/7 like some I've seen, but it's there when I need it (and it beats the $100 monthly plans that most providers have).

Normally, I just ignore individual occurrences like the one above...but I keep hearing the same thing...and experiencing it.

I went to our BB here...and there wasn't a single customer in the store. I asked one of the employees and she said that it has been like this for several weeks. The manager mentioned that they were about to fire some employees because business is so slow.

Combine anecdotal accounts like these...and they don't paint a good picture for our economy.

Normally, I just ignore individual occurrences like the one above...but I keep hearing the same thing...and experiencing it.

I went to our BB here...and there wasn't a single customer in the store. I asked one of the employees and she said that it has been like this for several weeks. The manager mentioned that they were about to fire some employees because business is so slow.

Combine anecdotal accounts like these...and they don't paint a good picture for our economy.

Yeah, I kinda :rolleyes: when I see those type of posts as well, but lately I've been seeing this, not only at places like Best Buy, but other places as well. And not to derail this thread, but if anyone can give anything they can to local food banks or other services to help others out who are in worse shape than we are, please do. Our local food bank has been turning away people who need assistance because they have nothing to give them. I went by there yesterday and dropped off some items, and since I have nothing to do tomorrow, I'll go pick up some items and take them over. Give up one Blu ray purchase a month to help someone is worth it to me.

Again, didn't mean to derail, but damn. This stuff is serious. Even my practice has seen a decline in people bringing their animals in for care. Farmers (my main source) are hurting and have to put off vet care for some of their animals. Not sure how this is going to play out for most people.

It's bad if the the price stays up...no, no...it's bad if the price comes down...no wait, it's bad if the price stays up....no, i'm sure it's.........
No need to be confused if you remember that low prices stimulate sales and sales are good. :D

I had to have my car serviced today (oil and filter and the 5,000 mile inspection) and on the way home I had to pee, so I stopped in Best Buy. This was around 12:15 in the afternoon and is one of the busiest Best Buy's in our area. Noticed in the parking lot there were only a few cars. Went inside and it was like a ghost town. Nobody in there, and even scarier was the cashiers all standing in the front of their registers waiting on anyone to come in and make a purchase. Was looking at Panasonic Viera plasmas, and the salesman told me that the past few days it has been really quiet and very few sales of anything. Makes you wonder. .

I know I had to work all day today...so did my spouse...my kids...in school til 3. That's 4 that weren't at BB today. I'll bet there were many who had the very same problem...or for the adults in my family, not such a problem.
Summer is over in the US. No more sleeping till 10, vacations or hanging out at the mall.

Blu Ray is quite successful in it's own right already.


My closest analogy is think of DVD as Windows XP, Blu Ray as Mac OSX and download/network as Linux :)

I think you are giving linux too much credit. It all depends how you define download. If we are talking downloads like apple or blockbuster then yes. If we are talking streaming and broadcast such as netflix watch intanstly or Fios/comcast on demand then I think it is somewhere inbetween. Probably actually dwarfs BD.

I think many folks including myself vew downloads as being an electronic delivery system. Not necessarily ownership. Just as so many people rent the discs as opposed to buying them..

Yeah, I kinda :rolleyes: when I see those type of posts as well, but lately I've been seeing this, not only at places like Best Buy, but other places as well. And not to derail this thread, but if anyone can give anything they can to local food banks or other services to help others out who are in worse shape than we are, please do. Our local food bank has been turning away people who need assistance because they have nothing to give them. I went by there yesterday and dropped off some items, and since I have nothing to do tomorrow, I'll go pick up some items and take them over. Give up one Blu ray purchase a month to help someone is worth it to me.

Again, didn't mean to derail, but damn. This stuff is serious. Even my practice has seen a decline in people bringing their animals in for care. Farmers (my main source) are hurting and have to put off vet care for some of their animals. Not sure how this is going to play out for most people.

its been slower in our dealerships as well. My Honda dealership is still busy but even they are where they should be.

Let's not forget, it's late 3rd Quarter. People could be holding off buying a lot of stuff in anticipation of the upcoming holiday season and its attendant sales.

Very bad timing for BD.
It seems that Toshiba will lose less money than Sony in the HD wars.

The global financial meltdown will continue for the next few years and HD will be at the bottom of peoples' priorities.

I know, you AVS hobbyist loonies are disagreeing, but you're also less than 1% of the market.

It's the masses that create mass adoption, right?

I'm not rooting for BD to fail, and it won't, but the timing is Bee Ay Dee, BAD.

Normally, I just ignore individual occurrences like the one above...but I keep hearing the same thing...and experiencing it.

I went to our BB here...and there wasn't a single customer in the store. I asked one of the employees and she said that it has been like this for several weeks. The manager mentioned that they were about to fire some employees because business is so slow.

Combine anecdotal accounts like these...and they don't paint a good picture for our economy.

It's seems to be the opposite here.

* Best Buy is still thriving. Actually, they are rebuilding/increasing their home entertainment room. Plenty of people there on Friday(6-7pm) and Sunday afternoon. :confused:

* Frys is always crowded. People still leaving with HDTV's, frigs, washers, computers, etc. :confused:

* The mall. Don't get me started. It's PACKED all the time and people are walking out with bags of stuff. They just remodeled and it's like it's causing people to impulse buy like crazy. Was there Saturday and Sunday afternoon and you'd think it was Black Friday shopping. Their 2 new 4 story parking lots are usually completely full & people are having to park away from the mall. They even had to hire people on the weekends to direct traffic in the mall.

btw:
I walked out with merchandise from all those places this weekend.
I by no means am rich but I don't have cable, monthly DVD rental fees and do have that Virgin mobile prepaid phone. I use my land line, which I only have a basic phone line with no fancy VM, etc for most my calls and tend not to chat on my cell phone.

I save about $200 a month not have those monthly fees & I only buy about 2-3 blu-ray titles a month so I'm still coming out ahead.
Also, in December I buy 2 of the Hollywood Videos calendars every year, which have rent1get1free coupons each month plus 2 more free rentals. That means I'm getting 26 rentals for the price of 12.

I think if people are really in dire need financially, they will start dumping their pay-per-fee entertainment monthly fees or cut back on these type of luxuries.

I guess buying blu-ray movies do have a benefit after all. I can watch them whenever I want and do not need to pay a thing. :)

It's seems to be the opposite here.

* Best Buy is still thriving. Actually, they are rebuilding/increasing their home entertainment room. Plenty of people there on Friday(6-7pm) and Sunday afternoon. :confused:

* Frys is always crowded. People still leaving with HDTV's, frigs, washers, computers, etc. :confused:

* The mall. Don't get me started. It's PACKED all the time and people are walking out with bags of stuff. They just remodeled and it's like it's causing people to impulse buy like crazy. Was there Saturday and Sunday afternoon and you'd think it was Black Friday shopping. Their 2 new 4 story parking lots are usually completely full & people are having to park away from the mall. They even had to hire people on the weekends to direct traffic in the mall.

btw:
I walked out with merchandise from all those places this weekend.
I by no means am rich but I don't have cable, monthly DVD rental fees and do have that Virgin mobile prepaid phone. I use my land line, which I only have a basic phone line with no fancy VM, etc for most my calls and tend not to chat on my cell phone.

I save about $200 a month not have those monthly fees & I only buy about 2-3 blu-ray titles a month so I'm still coming out ahead.
Also, in December I buy 2 of the Hollywood Videos calendars every year, which have rent1get1free coupons each month plus 2 more free rentals. That means I'm getting 26 rentals for the price of 12.

I think if people are really in dire need financially, they will start dumping their pay-per-fee entertainment monthly fees or cut back on these type of luxuries.

I guess buying blu-ray movies do have a benefit after all. I can watch them whenever I want and do not need to pay a thing. :)

Wow is all I can say! Ground control, come in moon!