There was a dearth of DLP announcements at CEDIA and at least one respected DLP manufacturer (Sharp) has left the market. This has come at a time of big improvements in PQ and cost reductions from LCD and LCOS manufacturers. Sony and JVC seem to be cleaning up on the mid to high market while LCD manufacturers like Epson are doing the same at the lower end. Does this mean that the shakeout in the HT FPTV market has claimed it's first victim (DLP)? Or does this just signify a pause in the action while DLP regroups and hits the market next year in full force with LED? Thoughts?

Sim2 is doing just fine in the three chip DLP market.

The real victor in the DLP war has been flat panels over DLP rear projection.

Or does this just signify a pause in the action while DLP regroups and hits the market next year in full force with LED? I think that is mostly it. But, the improvements to LCDs over the last couple of years seem like they must be hurting DLP in the market this forum and the <$3k forum cover a lot. Back when 720p was the top end the fill factor of DLP made a significant difference to a lot of people over most LCD, but with 1080p I think they matters much less. And LCD looks like it has caught up and even surpassed DLP in many ways with regard to on/off CR. I wouldn't have guessed that both LCOS and LCD would make the strides they have there compared to DLP over the last couple of years (at least up to this point).

I wonder how good the first LED DLPs will be (especially from Optoma) and how long it will be before they get some of the features their competition will have (like 120Hz LCDs and lens memory in the Panasonic AE3000).

--Darin

There was a dearth of DLP announcements at CEDIA and at least one respected DLP manufacturer (Sharp) has left the market. This has come at a time of big improvements in PQ and cost reductions from LCD and LCOS manufacturers. Sony and JVC seem to be cleaning up on the mid to high market while LCD manufacturers like Epson are doing the same at the lower end. Does this mean that the shakeout in the HT FPTV market has claimed it's first victim (DLP)? Or does this just signify a pause in the action while DLP regroups and hits the market next year in full force with LED? Thoughts?

Good analysis, Mark. Yes, DLP seems to have lost this round, being driven into the tiny corner of very high end pj's. Planar seems to be the only serious contender now in the midrange market, but it's not clear yet how competitive they will be against JVC and Sony's LCOS products. Whether led and/or laser illumination will work out and favor dlp versus the others is certainly not clear at present.

Sim2 is doing just fine in the three chip DLP market.

The real victor in the DLP war has been flat panels over DLP rear projection.

Yup, I agree with both statements. In the high-end, bright, 3-chip market, DLP is still doing well but some of it may be due to the fact that there is no real competition to DLP in that market. We may start to see some changes now that JVC seems to be going after it with their 4K though.

Couldn't LED be used for three chip non DLP technologies? Replacing a bulb and a prism? The problem is the light output of LEDs right now. Memorary lens are for fringe folks. Most of the market does not zoom or lens anamprph. Its basically an issue of cost and brightness for most of the mass market. Even on/off CR means little for sports viewing and games. Brightness and sharpness and CHEAPNESS. TI artificially keeps DLP costs high.

I think that is mostly it. But, the improvements to LCDs over the last couple of years seem like they must be hurting DLP in the market this forum and the <$3k forum cover a lot. Back when 720p was the top end the fill factor of DLP made a significant difference to a lot of people over most LCD, but with 1080p I think they matters much less. And LCD looks like it has caught up and even surpassed DLP in many ways with regard to on/off CR. I wouldn't have guessed that both LCOS and LCD would make the strides they have there compared to DLP over the last couple of years (at least up to this point).


Very true. The volumes in the FPTV market are relatively small but LCD and LCOS seem to be owning the vast majority of it. The bigger driver is RPTV and as Mark H. has mentioned, Flat Panel's are really hammering DLP in that market. DLP is doing great in e-cinema however, but how long can that market be supported if the volumes don't exist elsehwere?


I wonder how good the first LED DLPs will be (especially from Optoma) and how long it will be before they get some of the features their competition will have (like 120Hz LCDs and lens memory in the Panasonic AE3000).
--Darin

I'm curious about this too. The nice thing about LED illumination is the reduction or removal in RBE but I'm not so sure how much intra-image contrast is improved. If the technology can be improved to do regional dimming that might help.

Couldn't LED be used for three chip non DLP technologies?Probably. But single chip DLP is the technology that seems like it will gain the most from LEDs.

--Darin

Sim2 is doing just fine in the three chip DLP market.

The real victor in the DLP war has been flat panels over DLP rear projection.

I agree , I don't know what the relative market share was between rear projection tvs and front projection but I would guess at least 10:1. So their is no motivation to improve DLP ot Lcos chips anymore

On the other hand there may be room for a niche retro-player who came out with a super CRT system. Because the format is so much larger, the lens mtf does not have to be anywhere near as good and you could solve the Ansi problem by putting an antireflection coating on the front facet of the CRT. You might be able to build a front projection system which no one could touch.

I read somewhere that the total Front projection market is 40,000 units a year but I really don't know. I would like to know what the total market is for 3 chip DLP in the home

There was a dearth of DLP announcements at CEDIA and at least one respected DLP manufacturer (Sharp) has left the market. This has come at a time of big improvements in PQ and cost reductions from LCD and LCOS manufacturers. Sony and JVC seem to be cleaning up on the mid to high market while LCD manufacturers like Epson are doing the same at the lower end. Does this mean that the shakeout in the HT FPTV market has claimed it's first victim (DLP)? Or does this just signify a pause in the action while DLP regroups and hits the market next year in full force with LED? Thoughts?


Isn't motion blur still a problem with LCD and LCOS displays? My Marantz VP15S1 shows no issues with that.

Isn't motion blur still a problem with LCD and LCOS displays? My Marantz VP15S1 shows no issues with that.

120hz Interpolation should help with that.

HT pjs are only 10% of the projector market. The ultimate loser might be LCOS/SXRD. Due to insignificant business pj sales, LCOS/SXRD might not have enough volume sales to support the the levels of R&D expenditures that Epson (LCD) and TI(DLP) can commit to.

I think that is mostly it. But, the improvements to LCDs over the last couple of years seem like they must be hurting DLP in the market this forum and the <$3k forum cover a lot. Back when 720p was the top end the fill factor of DLP made a significant difference to a lot of people over most LCD, but with 1080p I think they matters much less. And LCD looks like it has caught up and even surpassed DLP in many ways with regard to on/off CR. I wouldn't have guessed that both LCOS and LCD would make the strides they have there compared to DLP over the last couple of years (at least up to this point).

I wonder how good the first LED DLPs will be (especially from Optoma) and how long it will be before they get some of the features their competition will have (like 120Hz LCDs and lens memory in the Panasonic AE3000).

--Darin

I think you have a point, but I have been saying for a while that the flat panel market has really hurt DLP and its ability to compete in the projector market. Without the rear projection DLP market, which even now that it is dead, sold orders of magnitude more units than DLP projectors ever have, the price of DLP chips has to go up. This also contributes to a significant decrease in the amount of money TI has to put towards DLP R&D for future releases. Sure, TI is a huge company, but they aren't just going to suck up the lost revenue and fund DLP out of another area at the levels it was previously.

HT pjs are only 10% of the projector market. The ultimate loser might be LCOS/SXRD. Due to insignificant business pj sales, LCOS/SXRD might not have enough volume sales to support the the levels of R&D expenditures that Epson (LCD) and TI(DLP) can commit to.

Good point. SXRD/DILA RPTV sales have also been hammered by flat panel.

Having worked at TI for many years though I know they are quick to dump product lines and technologies where the market has turned for the worse. With the exception of fab technology, TI doesn't do a lot of R&D unless the market is already there and they have customers lined up. It may be the case that the higher volume DLP office projector market is the saving grace for DLP.

Good point. SXRD/DILA RPTV sales have also been hammered by flat panel.

Having worked at TI for many years though I know they are quick to dump product lines and technologies where the market has turned for the worse. With the exception of fab technology, TI doesn't do a lot of R&D unless the market is already there and they have customers lined up. It may be the case that the higher volume DLP office projector market is the saving grace for DLP.

That said, business projectors are still a small percentage of the volume of consumer televisions. You might see DLP continue as a niche for business, but I really think its days for HT applications are near an end. IMO, LCD is going to just have too much money behind its R&D effort for DLP to keep pace.

Do you guys really think FP sales are going to fbe enough to fund any new generation SXRD or dila chips. maybe some improvements in grates, polarizers yada yes but I doubt any further advancement to any FP chip technolgy other than LCD. What did we see this year? No new chips, just needed product refinement.

4K HTmarket. Be serious, not for the main stream higher end videophile. Maybe for the very top end consumer with a hugh hugh screen. but there is NO source material and scaling to 4K will likely hurt more than it just helps with pixel density allowing someone to sit 4 feet away from his 16 ft wide screen. Suppose Sony comes out with a $45K 4K machine? One then would need to buy a say $10K processor.A street rumor (I have no clue if its real) is that Lumagen is working on a scaler for a 4K machine. The Entertainment Enhancement folks were putting a projector, scaler, server package together and it included a Lumagen under their own name. They are not 4K folks. But I could easily see putting two Lumagens together and getting a combined 4k by using image edge blending. My guess is that something like that is going on.

But Ijust don't see anything like a 4K machine consumer market.

The only way for ANY real additional major progress to be made in the home theater projector market is for the market to grow. This means that prices have to come down and volume has to go up. This is true for all projector technologies.

The sad truth is that the HT market has been piggybacking on developments made for other types of displays. We know, for example, that LED is coming because it is already in use in rear projection. 4k (to the extent it would ever be needed for the typical HT) will come because it is in development for DCI applications. LCD projector manufacturers appear to continue to make modest improvements with each new generation, but they still have much ground to make up to be competitive. The belated response from DLP manufacturers to the mismatch in contrast performance is Dynamic Black, which seems not to make enough of a difference to really matter.

As the display market has really shifted to flat panels, I doubt we can expect much more from Sony, TI, JVC or Epson UNLESS this market really starts to grow from a niche market to a mass market. Economies of scale will lower prices and drive future product innovations. Unfortunately, there are few signs of this happening.

Anyone who doubts the fact that front projection has been depending on other technologies need only look to purchase a new CRT projector, which are obviously no longer made; not because of their quality, but because CRTs have been abandoned by the mass market.

It seems like the most likely new technological advances will be in illumination, i.e., led and/or lasers replacing the lamp. There is well-known activity and progress along these lines, but it will probably still be a few years before any products with these are robust. And even with the hype, it's not totally clear how much better they will be.

As for the questions of has Lcos and LCD vs DLP, well price wise, its almost hard to beat an LCD FP. You can find better in terms of picture ,but for the quality you get from a LCD\LCOS, the price its unbeatable

Imagine if I would have started this thread :)

Imagine if I would have started this thread :)

I think if that were the case it wouldn't have had a '?' at the end of the title :)

Isn't motion blur still a problem with LCD and LCOS displays? My Marantz VP15S1 shows no issues with that.

Has motion blur ever been an issue for FP LCDs? The panels are so small that it would seem that the response time of the LCD's would be extremely fast. I thought motion blur in LCD's was limited to the large computer monitors and flat panel TV's. Something about having a hard time exciting LCD cells at such long distances. Once the screen becomes larger, it gets harder and harder to have a fast response time.

LCD panels in Front Projectors are tiny. For what its worth, I haven't seen any hint of motion blur on my Epson 1080UB LCD Front Projector.

Dan

Mark Petersen
One key question will be the following as I see it.

What kind of ANSI and native on/off contrast will LED dlp designs be capable of reaching?
A Better than lamp based dlp
B Better and worse than lamp based dlp
C Not as good as lamp based dlp

In the lcos area, it seems that only JVC has been able to get to super high CR w/o a dynamical iris. Sony is only able to get there with a DI, which the lcd pj's now seem able to do. So it seems to me that Sony is threatened by lcd, while JVC is still able to claim a unique capability. And dlp is far behind both in o/f CR, even Planar which has introduced a DI into this technology.

Mark Petersen
One key question will be the following as I see it.

What kind of ANSI and native on/off contrast will LED dlp designs be capable of reaching?
A Better than lamp based dlp
B Better and worse than lamp based dlp
C Not as good as lamp based dlp

Good question. Anyone know if local area dimming can be used in a front projection LED design?

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800523102_480700_NT_5220f895.HTM

LAD is done in the new top of the Sony XBR8 LCDs. This is done by placing clusters of LEDS (R,G, B) behinds the screen forming some proprietary number of zones and dimming accomplished by zone. LCD FP chips are small. It would seem next to impossible to have multiple leds (all one color here cause each chip does only one of the three primary colors) because of the extremely small area of each chip.

Isn't motion blur still a problem with LCD and LCOS displays? My Marantz VP15S1 shows no issues with that.

Think again bro. I've seen both and none of them touch my CRT in regards to motion.

You would have to see it to believe it but yes, it's not even close.

Cliff