Traditional theory would suggest that the failing economy will force some companies out of business and reduce competition in the marketplace.

However it could also force some more stable companies to deliver better products (projectors) at cheaper prices to separate themselves from their competitors.

Your thoughts?

Moving forward with this thread please keep the politics out of it. Thx.

Ultimately it will be good for home theater but many people will get hurt along the way and that is not a good thing.

Many small dealers will close their doors forever. Many PJ manufacturers will leave the business, merge with someone stronger, or just go under. Candidates include players like Infocus, Sanyo, Marantz and Sim2. To survive on the high end, I suspect that the manufacturer will need to have commercial products as well. That is why I put Sim2 on that list. JVC's projector division appears to do well but JVC as a whole does not. Perhaps it will be sold to someone to raise cash? Will Sony continue to fund SXRD projectors even though they are out of the rear projection business? Given what is going on in Germany, you have to question Sony's committment the business.

Hopefully when the dust settles we will have stronger companies with better products.

Hard to say. It might be the case that people will spend more time at home and also put more work into their existing home rather than buy another one. So a down economy might even be good for HT. It might also affect different market segments differently. For example, the guys buying ultra-high end might have their portfolios severely affected, but they may still have the cash to buy what they want. While the guys buying the low-end may put off buying for awhile. Another factor to consider is the US and UK seem to be getting the worst of it, while other countries like India seem to be feeling the pinch less (at least for now). So companies that do business with the most affected countries could feel the pinch the most.

My concern is that some companies may 'hunker down' to weather the storm by cutting back on R&D for a year or two. That may allow them to survive in the short term, but could hurt product advancement in the medium term.

Paul

My concern is that some companies may 'hunker down' to weather the storm by cutting back on R&D for a year or two. That may allow them to survive in the short term, but could hurt product advancement in the medium term.

Paul

Good! So can chill on an upgrade for a few! ;)

Comparing to business projector prices, there is definately scope for home cinema models to become cheaper. Midrange units in particular should go down, but the top end of the market won't change much.

So better prices yes - but better products? No. R&D will be cut back now, meaning improvements and alternative techs like laser & LED will take longer to come to market.

JVC's projector division appears to do well but JVC as a whole does not. Perhaps it will be sold to someone to raise cash? Will Sony continue to fund SXRD projectors even though they are out of the rear projection business? Given what is going on in Germany, you have to question Sony's committment the business.


This is getting OT, but I also wonder if front projection in general is headed for extinction. Panel displays seem to be where everything is headed and when OLED ramps up the displays could get very large, be very light, bright, energy efficient and most importantly will look better than FP technologies. OLED is also flexible and can be sewn into cloth so who knows maybe in the future when we buy a Stewart screen it has the display built-in. Regardless of the economy, investment and advances in front projection technology seems to have slowed for awhile now.

This is getting OT, but I also wonder if front projection in general is headed for extinction. Panel displays seem to be where everything is headed and when OLED ramps up the displays could get very large, be very light, bright, energy efficient and most importantly will look better than FP technologies. OLED is also flexible and can be sewn into cloth so who knows maybe in the future when we buy a Stewart screen it has the display built-in. Regardless of the economy, investment and advances in front projection technology seems to have slowed for awhile now.

The future you describe seems very nice to me!

I am not wedded to front projection. I just like big screens.

The future you describe seems very nice to me!

I am not wedded to front projection. I just like big screens.

+1

A huge weaved in screen that looks amazing with a VP for CIH would be quite nice!

seeing how the SLR(digital pro camera) market have already cannablise their own product line...I can only surmise the home theater market to follow suit. That being said, it always boggles me how fragmented this market is given the oodle amounts of boutique companies and custom installers. Hence there should be further consolidation.
Also the possibility of getting an 80inch LCD tv could be <$15k nicely in 24months maybe? It may derail new home theater enthusiasts altogether from screen+projector set up. Epson Ensemble line is also a nice touch to the industry.
Whatever case it is, being a consumer going forward is still the win. I think the price range of $500-1.5k cost amortization on an average set up for 5years is probably the sweet spot or companies to focus on..

+1

A huge weaved in screen that looks amazing with a VP for CIH would be quite nice!

It could also be a roll-up/drop-down screen. Ambient light won't be much of a problem either. No lightspill for CIH. Lots of upside...


The future you describe seems very nice to me!

I am not wedded to front projection. I just like big screens.


I hate seeing old technology like CRT, vinyl, etc. go by the wayside. In some ways CRT still seems more advanced to me. It's almost sci-fi when you think of the precision of manipulating an e-beam that was developed over many years.

FRONT PROJECTION as THE definition of home theater remains an exotic and highly specialized market. This means only a few people would adopt it and chances are those same people is what we'd call as videophiles. Not just film afficionados but giant screen cinema afficionados. Such folks would truly invest serious money into projection because their experience with giant screen has forever altered their vision. They won't go back to any puny CRT, LCD or plasma displays. However, videophiles are not necessarily rarified financially, like me. Hence, the impact of an economic debacle against the home theater front projection market would likely work for my benefit.

This means the front-runners would slashed back their pricing scheme to maintain their bestselling lead - but not exactly for spectacular profit but simply to survive. When that happens we could - as a wild guess - reckoned that prices will be so democratized that we could start enjoying very decent, very capable models at $2,000. Those who won't stoop to be consumer and populist oriented will either stopped production or adhere to their high-price policy - risking monetary losses where their unsold inventory may find its way to Woot one day, being sold at 60% cheaper than their regular stated value.
Like the other guy, I feel frustrated I can't buy the models I truly want - the Infocus IN83, Planar 8150, Yamaha DPX-1300, 3-chip DLPs - because they're priced so prohibitively. But amidst this debacle, I would wished I could finally get my hands on those because their makers have all read the handwriting on the wall this early. On the event elitist/boutique/non-populist makers like Planar, Sharp, Marantz, Runco, and even Infocus refuses to read the same handwriting, I would wish with some measure of spite that they go under and fold up their home theater assembly. Its sink or swim....

OLED is also flexible and can be sewn into cloth so who knows maybe in the future when we buy a Stewart screen it has the display built-in.

If it becomes available in 235:1 Im in :)

My problem with the 'big panel' market is that the screen I am going to project onto (120 x 60, potentially) will not fit through the doors to get into my room. There is just no way to get it up the stairs and around the corner.

I would LOVE to have a 10' OLED, but it would need to roll up or fold, which I think is unlikely for quite a while. It will happen, but I don't expect bright sharp 10' plus rollup screens inside the next decade.

FRONT PROJECTION as THE definition of home theater remains an exotic and highly specialized market. This means only a few people would adopt it and chances are those same people is what we'd call as videophiles.

Actually, I see front projection making gains among people I know. A couple of my coworkers have projection set ups, as do several of my friends and quite a number of acquaintances etc. (For instance, when I go to staff/parent parties for my kid's school, I'm no longer surprised to end up in a home that uses a front projection set up).

Not one of the people I know who have a projector/screen even remotely matches the description of "videophile." They just like having the big screen experience for sports, HD TV and movies. When my brother and my brother-in-law saw my modest projector projected on my wall they immediately started inquiring about projection and intend to get a projector.

In fact, so many people I know have a projector I feel like at least having a Constant Height Set-up (2:35:1 screen) would make for some individuality from the pack - something a little different the other folks aren't experiencing.

So...I can't say my survey of people who have bought into projection matches the truly esoteric character you give it.

Ultimately it will be good for home theater but many people will get hurt along the way and that is not a good thing.

Many small dealers will close their doors forever. Many PJ manufacturers will leave the business, merge with someone stronger, or just go under. Candidates include players like Infocus, Sanyo, Marantz and Sim2. To survive on the high end, I suspect that the manufacturer will need to have commercial products as well. That is why I put Sim2 on that list. JVC's projector division appears to do well but JVC as a whole does not. Perhaps it will be sold to someone to raise cash? Will Sony continue to fund SXRD projectors even though they are out of the rear projection business? Given what is going on in Germany, you have to question Sony's committment the business.

Hopefully when the dust settles we will have stronger companies with better products.

I think your analysis and predictions, and pmeyer's below, are very likely. However I don't think it will be good for HT. Fewer companies competing in quality and in price doesn't sound promising for us consumers. There have been such strides made in PQ and price in the last 5 years, but I think the economic downturn will slow that down.

My problem with the 'big panel' market is that the screen I am going to project onto (120 x 60, potentially) will not fit through the doors to get into my room. There is just no way to get it up the stairs and around the corner.

Come on Paul if you are like the rest of us here you would think nothing of taking out a wall or blasting a hole in the roof and dropping that puppy in from a Crane:)

I hate seeing old technology like CRT, vinyl, etc. go by the wayside.

Who knew that you were a romantic?

I have discarded all my old records, 8 tracks and CRTs and have not looked back. I can't wait for what's next!

Who knew that you were a romantic?

I have discarded all my old records, 8 tracks and CRTs and have not looked back. I can't wait for what's next!

Don't get me wrong, I'm always upgrading to the latest and greatest too. But sometimes there are some things that are lost in the process. In this ipood era (pun intended) I don't think that the music industry is the same. There was something special about buying a new album, carefully placing the needle on the vinyl and then sitting back and really listening while also studying the artwork on the cover. The relationship of songs on the album also progressed so it was important to listen to the order of songs on the album. A great example is Abbey Road. A person can't get a feel for the genius of that album without listening to the songs in the correct order (or only a few songs from the album).

Agreed Mark.

I have my solid state AV set up, but I gots my tube amps 'n vinyl still humming too. The kids seem to enjoy records and as you probably know vinyl has had quite an upswing in popularity within the last few years.

Agreed Mark.

I have my solid state AV set up, but I gots my tube amps 'n vinyl still humming too. The kids seem to enjoy records and as you probably know vinyl has had quite an upswing in popularity within the last few years.

Now if we could only get vinyl to last as long as CD's. Be immune to dirt (no pop and crackles). Eliminate wow and flutter, etc. etc. Then I'd be in heaven :)

Come on Paul if you are like the rest of us here you would think nothing of taking out a wall or blasting a hole in the roof and dropping that puppy in from a Crane:)

As I was writing the original post, in the back of my mind I was thinking how little of the roof I could get away with removing to get it in there.

Don't get me wrong, I'm always upgrading to the latest and greatest too. But sometimes there are some things that are lost in the process. In this ipood era (pun intended) I don't think that the music industry is the same. There was something special about buying a new album, carefully placing the needle on the vinyl and then sitting back and really listening while also studying the artwork on the cover. The relationship of songs on the album also progressed so it was important to listen to the order of songs on the album. A great example is Abbey Road. A person can't get a feel for the genius of that album without listening to the songs in the correct order (or only a few songs from the album).

You're right. I do miss albums for their cover art and dust sleeves and the "album experience".

On the other hand, I was cleaning out my basement last week and came upon a perfectly good Sony Walkman. I asked myself if I was ever going to use it again. Out it went.

As I was writing the original post, in the back of my mind I was thinking how little of the roof I could get away with removing to get it in there.

You know you are an AVSer when....

:D

Well I can say from first hand experience that the economic slow-down is going to affect small business. I closed my custom home theater business last year, due to the fact that the new housing starts in my neck of the woods was becoming nonexistent. On the plus side, I have been able to spend the last year at home with my new son, who my wife and I adopted from Colombia last October. Thankfully, I had other investments to carry us through this year and in 2009 I plan to reopen my business, working strictly from home and operating as a very specialized company. Who knows where things will go from here, but these things happen and you just have to keep a positive outlook and know that the light at the end of the tunnel is NOT a train!! lol

Chris White

If you look at the fact that more people will stay at home to save money I assume that it will be very good for home theater in general. It will just shift the market place to the lower end projector models which is where over 90% of the consumer demand is anyways.

Am I wrong? Alan I hope AVS keeps doing well.

I hate seeing old technology like CRT, vinyl, etc. go by the wayside. In some ways CRT still seems more advanced to me. It's almost sci-fi when you think of the precision of manipulating an e-beam that was developed over many years.

I agree, it's amazing technology that's slowly getting retired, but I won't miss fiddling with convergence adjustments all the time... well.. maybe just a little :-)

John (old fart)

there are two views to this. One, since HT is a luxury item, people will buy less of it. Look whats happening to cars and we need cars to get around. The other view is that people dont want to spend 70-100 to take the family to a movie so HT becomes a smart investment. Personally I think both will occur. I would imagine TV sales will drop because if you got one right now you can sit and wait until the economy is better while on the other hand, front projection systems will continue to chug along because people still want that theater environment and the pricing is so cheap today relatively speaking that its a crime not to get into it

+1

there are two views to this. One, since HT is a luxury item, people will buy less of it. Look whats happening to cars and we need cars to get around. The other view is that people dont want to spend 70-100 to take the family to a movie so HT becomes a smart investment. Personally I think both will occur. I would imagine TV sales will drop because if you got one right now you can sit and wait until the economy is better while on the other hand, front projection systems will continue to chug along because people still want that theater environment and the pricing is so cheap today relatively speaking that its a crime not to get into it

Yeah I could see it being the case that movie sales slow down while home theater investment increases. Most analysts point to past history where movie ticket sales have been unaffected by bad economic times, because people have been willing to pay the price of a ticket to get an emotional lift. But this time around it could be different because of high ticket costs and the fact that home theater technology has become so good.

I'm going to have to agree with the: Poor economy = Less R&D spending, Less R&D spending = Bad for improvements in the coming years.

Then again, since I'm upgrading this month, and want the upgrade to last a while, I'm completely okay with that.:p

I agree with what other have said. Some of the smaller companies will struggle and may end of closing their doors. Most will survive the recession/downturn in the economy, or whatever you want to call it. The ones that survive will definitely have to reduce costs and overhead which means layoffs in their respective divisions, I would guess. I don't think prices will fall much, if anything they may go up slightly. What I do see happening if things get really bad, is less production of current models, and future models. Instead of JVC, SONY, MITS, PANNY, etc coming out with various new models each year, like they have done for years now, they may stop production in the FP business, and limit the quantities of current models that are produced. Again I would think the latter would only occur if thing get really bad. Either way I definitely see less production in the future, and some layoffs, cuts in overhead for every company.

The failing economy isn't good for my home theater. Three months ago I would have upgraded from my severly lacking Sony white Pearl to the JVC RS20 from AVS but not now.:(

Tom

there are two views to this. One, since HT is a luxury item, people will buy less of it. Look whats happening to cars and we need cars to get around. The other view is that people dont want to spend 70-100 to take the family to a movie so HT becomes a smart investment. Personally I think both will occur. I would imagine TV sales will drop because if you got one right now you can sit and wait until the economy is better while on the other hand, front projection systems will continue to chug along because people still want that theater environment and the pricing is so cheap today relatively speaking that its a crime not to get into it

Like a lot of people here, I have a front projector and a LCD display. Watching the LCD is definitely not as good an total experience as watching the large front projector screen. I don't have a good explanation for the difference, but it is probably something to do with the large screen being an immersion experience vs the LCD being a picture in a frame that does not pull you into the experience.

Probably something to do with why movie theaters are designed with large screens. In other words, I don't have a good logical reason why large screens are better. Got to be some good theories out there beyond my stumbling around comments.

The daily CEA newsbrief I get mentioned a "trend" for people who are doing "staycations" (hate the word) to spend money on CE gear, instead of airfare, hotels, etc. While I believe that this is true (i.e., that it is happening), the question is always "to what extent?". For the latter, I just don't see this as being a big segment of the population. Depending upon the depth of the recession, people will pretty quickly start rationalizing their monthly spend (we have, to an extent; several of my friends in Las Vegas are in a full-on panic). This bodes ill, in general, for total spend on HT.

To the specific question, the US averted a lot of pain we should have felt during the 2001 - 2002 "recession" by using easy credit to pull demand forward. This happened most notably in automobiles, but I expect that easy credit also had a big influence in a lot of other areas (e.g., when I bought my iPhone, the guy next to me was having to spread the purchase over three credit cards). It is a question of data, but how many people bought televisions with a loan (separate from a credit card)? Not too many, I'd wager, but probably more than was healthy for the overall industry.

Will Sony continue to fund SXRD projectors even though they are out of the rear projection business? Given what is going on in Germany, you have to question Sony's committment the business.
I, too, would expect Sony to exit the SXRD market if the recession lasts a while (> 1 year). However, I am curious about what, specifically, is going on in Germany? I must have missed something.

Bill

The daily CEA newsbrief I get mentioned a "trend" for people who are doing "staycations" (hate the word) to spend money on CE gear, instead of airfare, hotels, etc. While I believe that this is true (i.e., that it is happening), the question is always "to what extent?". For the latter, I just don't see this as being a big segment of the population. Depending upon the depth of the recession, people will pretty quickly start rationalizing their monthly spend (we have, to an extent; several of my friends in Las Vegas are in a full-on panic). This bodes ill, in general, for total spend on HT.

To the specific question, the US averted a lot of pain we should have felt during the 2001 - 2002 "recession" by using easy credit to pull demand forward. This happened most notably in automobiles, but I expect that easy credit also had a big influence in a lot of other areas (e.g., when I bought my iPhone, the guy next to me was having to spread the purchase over three credit cards). It is a question of data, but how many people bought televisions with a loan (separate from a credit card)? Not too many, I'd wager, but probably more than was healthy for the overall industry.


I, too, would expect Sony to exit the SXRD market if the recession lasts a while (> 1 year). However, I am curious about what, specifically, is going on in Germany? I must have missed something.

Bill

Since recently european consumer law states that the shop or store is responisble for the the repair or replacement. This goes beyond 'warranty' as stated by the manufacturer. The user has the right for a replacement or a repair when the product fails within it's expected lifetime.

For example a television has perhaps an expected lifetime of 5 years. If the panel fails before that liftime the consumer has the right to get it repaired.
For free or at a fraction of the cost.

The seller has to take care of this and in turn has to deal with the manufacturer.

Product with design flaw(s) will be a major pain for shop now that they can't point the customer to the manufacturer or it's service organizations anymore.

Since recently european consumer law states that the shop or store is responisble for the the repair or replacement. This goes beyond 'warranty' as stated by the manufacturer. The user has the right for a replacement or a repair when the product fails within it's expected lifetime.

For example a television has perhaps an expected lifetime of 5 years. If the panel fails before that liftime the consumer has the right to get it repaired.
For free or at a fraction of the cost.

The seller has to take care of this and in turn has to deal with the manufacturer.

Product with design flaw(s) will be a major pain for shop now that they can't point the customer to the manufacturer or it's service organizations anymore.
To my question, above, does this mean that Sony has exited the German market for SXRDs entirely? I thought they launched the (overpriced) VW80 there?!?

The failing economy isn't good...There will be no where to plug in your projector under that bridge...;)

I don't believe projector systems will ever achieve the same popularity as TV flat panels. There's just too much work (expenses) involved in setting up a projector system, especially if the customer hires a contractor, and the average JSP, who probably couldn't be bothered, will always want a TV flat panel since they're basically plug and play. The brick and mortar stores, where the majority of display sales takes place, will always push the customer towards flat panels. That being said, projector systems still offer a huge advantage in being able to project a huge picture and immersive experience unavailable with flat panels. I don't believe the economic slowdown will affect projector systems as much since the videophiles will always find a way to incorporate these displays into their home theaters. However, I can see how the failing economy can affect flat panel sales.

I just spent a bunch of $$$ on upgrades so I will have a nice system to enjoy when I get laid off.

Of course bad economy will hit the HT market in a bad way.

Just speaking for myself, I have to delay upgrading to a new projector and reciever due to problems selling my apartment. Either I have to keep paying rent for the old one or take a major hit selling it. Either way, money I could have used on the HT is spent elsewhere and I'm not happy about it... :(

To my question, above, does this mean that Sony has exited the German market for SXRDs entirely? I thought they launched the (overpriced) VW80 there?!?

I don't know about sony. From what I gather some german dealers are not offering Sony fpj anymore. Guess they don't like to get stonewalled by sony service not honoring complaints about contrast loss or color uniformity.

I just spent a bunch of $$$ on upgrades so I will have a nice system to enjoy when I get laid off.


You sound rather flippant about your possible unemployment.... :p

Is it going to be good for home theater? I think that's a pretty obvious NO as no doubt R&D budgets are going to be slashed to the bone and companies will be less likely to take risks on new ideas and technologies.

However I doubt it will destroy the home theater market either, we will probably see companies coming out with less "new" features and start cramming more into the lower priced models to gain market share or developing even lower priced models with slightly less features then the majority of low end models have today.

But most of us probably won't even notice it at least for a few years... Remember companies are BIG ponderous creatures they can't turn around on a dime.. So first of all companies will go to their suppliers and demand cost reductions and then they'll start changing their models...

Where the big effect will come is 2-4 years down the line when things start to recover and the new tech that was just around the corner before the recession hasn't really been fully funded and is still years away from showing up in affordable home theater products.

If I could replace my front projector 49 by 115 inches with an OLED screen I would but the biggest screen I can currently buy is 11 inches

I think using the home theater as a crib would be an expanding market. i can no longer run because of bad knees and I bought a program from a Dutch company TACX which sells real life video programs. As you pedal your bike you move along the country side as you peddle faster the scene moves by faster and when you go up a hill the bike makes the peddling harder. Originally the resolution was not so good but now they have come up with a high definition widescreen version which is highly realistic. The other day I pedaled through the French alps and it was exactly like being there and I did not have to put up with the long flight to get there and the occasional French rudeness.

They sell this program to serious bicycle racers for indoor training and most of these guys use a 32 inch LCD. the general market is untapped.

There are programs for golf but none for running or cross country skiing. If the economy plunges it may be cheaper to simulate a European vacation than actually going there.

The pine beetle is destroying the forests of Canada and the US so the only choice in the future may be simulation

The idea of turning a home theater into a home simulator has not been marketed effectively.