Spending on HD online video to TRIPLE every year through 2012! That is MASSIVE growth!

Online video revenue will surge over the next three years, as consumers with higher Internet capacity access a wider range of film and television content in both standard-definition and high-definition over the Web, according to a report released last week. U.S. consumers will spend more than $9 billion on online video content in 2012, up from about $1.2 billion last year, content-delivery network Akamai said last week, citing an IDC study it commissioned. Meanwhile, advertisers will spend about $3.3 billion on online video in 2012, up from less than $1 billion last year, according to the study.

“Streaming online video is about to enter the media mainstream, offering alternative means of distributing video content to consumers of the traditional channels,” IDC said in the report.

With the number of online video users expected to grow by about a third to about 160 million between 2008 and 2012, use of HD video will grow exponentially, from 1.5% of the total in 2008, to 17% by 2012. Content distributors, including Internet-based YouTube and Hulu and such retailers as Amazon.com, Blockbuster and Netflix, are fueling such rapid growth rates by widening their inventory of digital titles, as more electronic components allow streamed videos to be played directly on television sets.

As total online video sales grow, revenue from high-definition online video will grow even faster. U.S. spending on HD online video will almost triple every year through 2012, when HD online video spending reaches about $2.2 billion, IDC said in the Akamai-commissioned study.

“HD video is emerging as a strategically important battlefield in the online video publishers’ war for consumer eyeballs, revenue and competitiveness,” IDC said in the report. The research firm estimated that 82% of online video users consider image sharpness and resolution either “important” or “very important.”

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6655631.html

Spending on HD online video to TRIPLE every year through 2012! That is MASSIVE growth!It's important to note that this study is commissioned by Akamai, a company that exists primarily (if not entirely) to provide streaming solutions, which gives it the same credibility as the cableco-sponsored study about internet "brownouts".

It's important to note that this study is commissioned by Akamai, a company that exists primarily (if not entirely) to provide streaming solutions, which gives it the same credibility as the cableco-sponsored study about internet "brownouts".

I have seen the counter-studies from scientists that discuss why the brownout study is flawed. Do you have any data or counter information that specifically shows flaws with this study?

If the idea is to dismiss any studies commissioned by those in the related business, then we can start throwing out most every study in the home entertainment field. I prefer to base my scepticism on fact and analysis.

I have seen the counter-studies from scientists that discuss why the brownout study is flawed. Do you have any data or counter information that specifically shows flaws with this study?There are any of a number (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6654650.html?industryid=47214) of predictions (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6649211.html?industryid=47214) that differ (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6647806.html?industryid=47214) from this one, especially concerning movement (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6648215.html?industryid=47214) from disc to downloads (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6644141.html?industryid=47214).
If the idea is to dismiss any studies commissioned by those in the related business, then we can start throwing out most every study in the home entertainment field. I prefer to base my scepticism on fact and analysis.Do you also prefer to lump scientific research with economic forecasting? One is by nature an empirical process, the other is educated guesswork. I'd toss the lot of the forecasts for the industry if it were up to me.

There are any of a number (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6654650.html?industryid=47214) of predictions (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6649211.html?industryid=47214) that differ (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6647806.html?industryid=47214) from this one, especially concerning movement (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6648215.html?industryid=47214) from disc to downloads (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6644141.html?industryid=47214).
Do you also prefer to lump scientific research with economic forecasting? One is by nature an empirical process, the other is educated guesswork. I'd toss the lot of the forecasts for the industry if it were up to me.

Just for fun, I am going to provide a quote from each of the articles you linked. I will let the reader decide if the info from those articles says anything to refute the growth of online distribution:

Consumer spending on home entertainment slipped just 5% in the first quarter, to $5.3 billion, when revenue from Internet video and cable and satellite video-on-demand are included, according industry promotion organization the Digital Entertainment Group.

DEG’s calculation includes DVD sales down 14% to $2.89 billion, and Blu-ray Disc sales up 105% at $230 million, as well as packaged media rental up 1%. The numbers are very similar to those released earlier by Video Business and Rentrak, but DEG adds $487 million for Internet/cable/satellite, which it says grew 19%.

Consumers increasingly prefer zero marginal cost media (e.g., Internet, cable TV) to transactional media (e.g., DVD purchases, DVD rentals, VOD).

Digital movie and TV sales grew to 3% of the DVD market in 2008 and are expected to reach 7% of disc sales by 2011.

Online video viewing surged 15% between the third and fourth quarters of last year, while time-shifted television watching jumped 33% last year from 2007, Nielsen said in a February report. The number of adults who regularly watch current TV shows on the Internet also jumped by about a third, Leichtman Research said in a separate report last month.

In terms of Internet delivery, "the lack of TV connections has hindered growth," Cambruzzi said. He noted that, nevertheless, revenue for Internet VOD movies was $227 million in 2008, and is forecast for about $400 million in 2009, a healthy growth curve.



And for perspective on how the market is actually growing:

Digital distribution further lifted the total, coming in with an estimated consumer spend of $487 million, up 19% from the year-ago quarter.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/research/consumer-home-media-spending-dips-5-q1-15510

The problem w/ digital DLs as I see them are:

1) Enough people connected at the right speed. Future stuff. Not this year or next or the next.

2) 20 different companies w/ their own way of downloading into their own boxes/software. The hd dvd/BD battle on steroids. Expect each to defend their own business leading to here today gone tommorrow service. How many boxes will you buy?

3) Lack of content. You can get this but you can't get that...well maybe in 30 days.

3) No way to save anything w/o being a pc geek. Unless your adept at Nas drives/stringing drives/maintaining multiple tivos.

3) Quality of DLs. Easy to go dvd to hd lite/not so easy going from 1080p to a bit starved, stuttering mess w/ 2 channel stereo.

5) Most of the population w/ little or no knowledge of how this stuff works.

6) Putting DL-ing on a bill paying/making good profit basis.

Those are all legitimate problems, and each is seeing progress.

Take a look at this forum. All those issues are known and there is great stuff happening to resolve each and every one. Increased download speeds are happening (DOCSIS 3.0 will be ubiquitous in a few years). Convergence of devices and services is happening (Disney joined Hulu in just over a year since it launced!). Contracts are being re-written to change the distribution windows! NAS is becoming cheap and available (check out Costco.com). Quality is improving, and so is the experience (check out Ben Wagonners posts). People are ASKING for digital distribution now!! And businesses are refining the ad-based and subscription models... pay models already offer an improved margin over physical media!!

Very exciting times! With the combination of streaming/downloading being supported natively on display devices, game consoles and Blu-ray players... things can only keep accelerating. Amazing time to be a fan of home entertainment!!

Those are all legitimate problems, and each is seeing progress.

Take a look at this forum. All those issues are known and there is great stuff happening to resolve each and every one. Increased download speeds are happening (DOCSIS 3.0 will be ubiquitous in a few years). Convergence of devices and services is happening (Disney joined Hulu in just over a year since it launced!). Contracts are being re-written to change the distribution windows! NAS is becoming cheap and available (check out Costco.com). Quality is improving, and so is the experience (check out Ben Wagonners posts). People are ASKING for digital distribution now!! And businesses are refining the ad-based and subscription models... pay models already offer an improved margin over physical media!!

Very exciting times! With the combination of streaming/downloading being supported natively on display devices, game consoles and Blu-ray players... things can only keep accelerating. Amazing time to be a fan of home entertainment!!

! !! !!!! !!! ! !! ! (short version) :p

Yes there seems to be a trend toward DL but it is limited to only a few on this blue planet of ours. So if you live in the USA and can enjoy this great invention good for you.

! !! !!!! !!! ! !! ! (short version) :p

Yes there seems to be a trend toward DL but it is limited to only a few on this blue planet of ours. So if you live in the USA and can enjoy this great invention good for you.

A few? Hulu alone had 41.6 million unique viewers in March, and that site is focused on long-form content. The average Hulu viewer spends 3+ hours per month watching content on the site.

And thankfully I do live in the USA and can enjoy this great innovention!! Ironically, the US is actually behind the times in broadband speeds and penetration (compared to other western countries), but if you monitor this forum you can see how things are rapidly improving!

BTW... each and every fact I mentioned in this thread is linked to on posts in this forum. Read and learn! There is a wealth of information for those willing to listen.

3 hours a month is one show a week w/o commercials.

Either the variety or the quality is not keeping viewers. Sure lots come to look but they're not staying for very long...that's not good.

A few? Hulu alone had 41.6 million unique viewers in March, and that site is focused on long-form content. The average Hulu viewer spends 3+ hours per month watching content on the site.

And thankfully I do live in the USA and can enjoy this great innovention!! Ironically, the US is actually behind the times in broadband speeds and penetration (compared to other western countries), but if you monitor this forum you can see how things are rapidly improving!

BTW... each and every fact I mentioned in this thread is linked to on posts in this forum. Read and learn! There is a wealth of information for those willing to listen.

USA != World...

All those services that you talk about are USA centric or available only to US citizen. The world is a prety big place and they are a lot more people on it that can't (and probably never will) use those services than there are people who can.

USA != World...

All those services that you talk about are USA centric or available only to US citizen. The world is a prety big place and they are a lot more people on it that can't (and probably never will) use those services than there are people who can.

This is one thing that keeps bothering me. Why should ABC/NBC/CBS Hulu care about anyone other than the US. Now don't get me wrong, I am not against you watching anything, but why should they care. They are US companies serving US interests. I am sure that I can find several services that you enjoy outside the US that I cannot (better cell phones, better broadband). The networks are here to broadcast their entertainment to US viewers and if they sell the right to broadcast that content in your country to another company, then let that company find a way to service you.

3 hours a month is one show a week w/o commercials.

Either the variety or the quality is not keeping viewers. Sure lots come to look but they're not staying for very long...that's not good.

It is very good. It is still a new market and growing. And one of the reasons that studios and broadcasters embrace it is because it is growing the overall viewer market by not cannibalizing other forms of distribution. Win for the consumer! Win for the studios and broadcasters!

This is one thing that keeps bothering me. Why should ABC/NBC/CBS Hulu care about anyone other than the US. Now don't get me wrong, I am not against you watching anything, but why should they care. They are US companies serving US interests. I am sure that I can find several services that you enjoy outside the US that I cannot (better cell phones, better broadband). The networks are here to broadcast their entertainment to US viewers and if they sell the right to broadcast that content in your country to another company, then let that company find a way to service you.

Each region can serve it's own population quite well. There is also a ton of buzz about the BBC's online efforts.

This is one thing that keeps bothering me. Why should ABC/NBC/CBS Hulu care about anyone other than the US. Now don't get me wrong, I am not against you watching anything, but why should they care. They are US companies serving US interests. I am sure that I can find several services that you enjoy outside the US that I cannot (better cell phones, better broadband). The networks are here to broadcast their entertainment to US viewers and if they sell the right to broadcast that content in your country to another company, then let that company find a way to service you.

You are talking about local TV channel vs Cable or Sat delivered channel. They make as much money outside of the USA than inside. The company here pay ABC/NBC/FOX to distribute their channel not the other way around.

Media is a global business now not local. They make money selling their shows and channel to foreign distributor maybe as much as they do by serving the continental USA. And if they didn't want to do this they wouldn't have lobyist presuring foreign government to change their laws so they can innondate our market with US content.

Also the internet is a global medium not a local one. Banning foreign user from an international communication system is stupid. Hell, maybe they should get Compuserv or America-Online back up and put hulu on those closed system.

Hey, if you want to be isolasionist, please be my guest but don't expect us to continue to purchase your media and let see if your entertainment industry can survive a local market only.

You are talking about local TV channel vs Cable or Sat delivered channel. They make as much money outside of the USA than inside. The company here pay ABC/NBC/FOX to distribute their channel not the other way around.

Media is a global business now not local. They make money selling their shows and channel to foreign distributor maybe as much as they do by serving the continental USA. And if they didn't want to do this they wouldn't have lobyist presuring foreign government to change their laws so they can innondate our market with US content.

Also the internet is a global medium not a local one. Banning foreign user from an international communication system is stupid. Hell, maybe they should get Compuserv or America-Online back up and put hulu on those closed system.

Hey, if you want to be isolasionist, please be my guest but don't expect us to continue to purchase your media and let see if your entertainment industry can survive a local market only.

Ah, see you agree with me, and yet you do not know it. I do not want to be an isolationist, on the contrary. I want you to be able to view whatever you want, I said as much in my original post. You stated that *foreign* distributors purchase content to sell to you. So lets let them do that. Hulu is not *foreign* to the US, so why not a *foreign* distributor for you then.

We agree. You have a way to purchase our media. Great so what was the problem again? I have a way to purchase our media through Hulu. Hulu is the US distributor. Like iTunes, I am sure once they get a working model, they will not pass up your dollars or they will allow someone locally to you to do it for them for a fee.

See, we agree. So whats the problem with Hulu again?? Oh wait, information must be free right? Internet changes everything. Shove our crap on the internet because all countries laws and beliefs are the same. Well, we will have to disagree with that one. Takes quite some time for someone to navigate the different laws and attitudes of each country.

You are a big proponent of local distributors, but upset because Hulu wont ignore them? Like I said, never understood that argument.

Ah, see you agree with me, and yet you do not know it. I do not want to be an isolationist, on the contrary. I want you to be able to view whatever you want, I said as much in my original post. You stated that *foreign* distributors purchase content to sell to you. So lets let them do that. Hulu is not *foreign* to the US, so why not a *foreign* distributor for you then.

We agree. You have a way to purchase our media. Great so what was the problem again? I have a way to purchase our media through Hulu. Hulu is the US distributor. Like iTunes, I am sure once they get a working model, they will not pass up your dollars or they will allow someone locally to you to do it for them for a fee.

See, we agree. So whats the problem with Hulu again?? Oh wait, information must be free right? Internet changes everything. Shove our crap on the internet because all countries laws and beliefs are the same. Well, we will have to disagree with that one. Takes quite some time for someone to navigate the different laws and attitudes of each country.

You are a big proponent of local distributors, but upset because Hulu wont ignore them? Like I said, never understood that argument.

Uuuuh???

Lol, whatever. I guess I wasn't clear enough since I was stating the totaly oposite point of view.

Ok. So lets try again. I will use what you said.

You are talking about local TV channel vs Cable or Sat delivered channel.

No I am not. I am talking about an American company selling an American product using Ad Sales that would mean nothing in your country.

They make as much money outside of the USA than inside. The company here pay ABC/NBC/FOX to distribute their channel not the other way around.

You and I agree on this. Non-American companies pay for the rights to service your country. Hence by contract HULU cannot service you. A local company to you will have to do it or HULU will have to expand to your area. They have not so they do not have the contract.


Media is a global business now not local. They make money selling their shows and channel to foreign distributor maybe as much as they do by serving the continental USA.

Again, foreign distributor. We still agree.

And if they didn't want to do this they wouldn't have lobyist presuring foreign government to change their laws so they can innondate our market with US content.

Again, foreign distributor. We agree. Right. That is what you said above.

Also the internet is a global medium not a local one. Banning foreign user from an international communication system is stupid. Hell, maybe they should get Compuserv or America-Online back up and put hulu on those closed system.

We agree here as well. Only thing I would point out that though I agree with you, I would have to add that *CONTENT* is not global. At least not all of it. You probably don't care to much about my local school board race or the weather here for tomorrow. At least about as much as I care about yours. But your statement that you posted above, I agree with.

Hey, if you want to be isolasionist, please be my guest but don't expect us to continue to purchase your media and let see if your entertainment industry can survive a local market only.

Only place I disagree. I stated in my original post that I support your ability to watch everything you want to. So your isolationist crack was misguided. I want you to buy my country's product.

So, I am left with my original thought. Why should Hulu care that you cannot see it. Their model works only as Ad-supported. It is in its infancy. You watching an american ad does no good to their advertisers.

But you seem to be putting down digital distribution and using the fact that Hulu cannot service your country to justify it. Am I right? If I am wrong then I do apologize. But going by your post history, you care not for digital downloading. Some of us do though. I also care for Bluray. It is all entertainment to me, I do not care if it comes by morse code. As long as I get to watch what I want. If it is missing a few pixels I care not. DVD quality or better for me is fine.

So, can you show me where we disagree in your and my original posts?