When do you think Toshiba will release a stand alone Blu-ray player? [Text View]

ottscay

05-27-09, 11:10 AM

Thanks for the chart, but I do wonder what the percentages are on a unit basis. Does anyone know?

At a unit level BD is far less than the revenue market share.

DVD is entering its final phase, so downward price pressure is in full swing. I would guess that Blu is still at less than 10% on a unit basis. I am not sure that is good or bad, but this is a new model for sure.

It's good for BD, bad for DVD (and Toshiba). Apparently many die-hard fans of a certain defunct HD format don't understand this (not aimed at you larrimore), but this is NOT a new trend or sales model, it's the same one that plays out every time a new format replaces an old one. The high profit margin to lower sales volume trend gets reset, and as manufacturing prices come down and sales volume goes up retail prices are reduced to drive even greater sales volume/market penetration. One of the reasons the other format couldn't get more companies on board was it kept trying to skip this to squeeze the profit margins too early on in the life cycle.

By the time BD revenue hits 35-40% of the market DVD will be a dead legacy product from the POV of most companies. They'll shift to releasing DVDs later, just as they did with the VHS/DVD transition. Companies always favor higher-margin growth markets over saturated markets with razor-thin profit margins.

As for Toshiba, I think the change in management will help. As long as Toshiba thinks it is prolonging its DVD royalties and not cannibalizing future sales in other markets (consumer electronics, computers, etc.) it won't release a BD product...but there is little they can do to forestall the replacement of DVD at this point, and dragging their feet too much longer will cause them to lose brand support over the long run (many consumers don't know why Toshiba doesn't make a BD player, just that Sony, Panasonic, and Samsung do). It will become a bullet point that favors Dell or Sony laptops over their own, etc.

I expect Toshiba will quietly look into the manufacturing issue this year, but wait on the sidelines until after the next holiday season, hoping that interest in the format will dwindle (which it won't...sales and awareness have increased too far, it's all but inevitable baring an even greater economic collapse that BD will replace DVD over the next couple years). If BD sales continue on pace Toshiba will jump into the fray next year (possibly with a CES announcement in 2010) to help polish their brand and get in on the game.

Unlike the move from VHS to DVD, many peole will still buy DVDs as the player will still play them and they are cheaper.

Probably, but the same is true for people who own combo VHS/DVD players. My in-laws, for example, still pick up (used) VHS tapes on the cheap to this day. Doesn't change the fact that any new movie you want to see can only be had on DVD (and now BD).

It still doesn't make me feel great about BD, but it is good to see it growing, which is a start.

Not only is it growing, but BD sales as a percent of overall sales is pretty much on target compared to DVD/VHS. I don't know where this hysteria came from about BD, sales rate, and pricing, but it's right on track. It took DVD half a decade to catch VHS in actual unit sales, but that didn't change the fact that DVD was the de facto standard even before then. The same is happening right now with BD.

Some people have very short memories.

Everdog

05-27-09, 01:08 PM

...By the time BD revenue hits 35-40% of the market DVD will be a dead legacy product from the POV of most companies. They'll shift to releasing DVDs later, just as they did with the VHS/DVD transition. Companies always favor higher-margin growth markets over saturated markets with razor-thin profit margins.
...

I thin your logic is flawed...
First VHS cost much more (and takes a lot longer) to produce than DVD (so studios wanted to get away from it), while BD cost more than DVD. Also, DVDs are lighter and take up less space, therefore they are cheaper to ship.
Second, you could record/copy with VHS and studios hated that which is another reason they wanted to transition.
Third, it will still be a few years before BD hits 35-40% of the market and by then BD prices will have dropped to near the same price as DVD, so the profits margins will be close to same... and DVD will still be selling 2x BD.
Fourth, in 2 years virtually every TV and disc player will support streaming (even Sony (http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/01/07/sony-brings-yahoo-widgets-to-1080p-zbr9-z-series-hdtvs/)).

I have said all along in a couple years we will see a good mix of marketshare like this (just a guess):
BD - 25%
DVD-50%
Streaming-20%
??-5%

mike171979

05-27-09, 02:26 PM

I think the writing is going to be on the wall for Toshiba next year.

Bluray isn't going away, its only getting better. Any one building ANY kind of decent home theater setup, is going to get a Bluray player.

Not having a Bluray player will begin to hurt their HDTV sales eventually, as many people like to keep like brands in their chains.

If Toshiba refuses to accept Bluray, they will begin to look like an antiquated company, especially if all they do is continue to push upconversion.

We all know Toshiba doesn't want DVD going anywhere because they make a lot of money off of DVD, but if they hold off of Bluray for too long, it will bite them.

Brand Perception is a big part of marketing. If someone goes to Best Buy, and sees the new Panasonic, Sony, and Samsung Bluray Players, and all they see from Toshbia on that aisle is a Upconverting DVD player at the end of the aisle, people will perceive Toshiba as a lesser brand.

42Plasmaman

05-27-09, 02:31 PM

I thin your logic is flawed...
First VHS cost much more (and takes a lot longer) to produce than DVD (so studios wanted to get away from it), while BD cost more than DVD. Also, DVDs are lighter and take up less space, therefore they are cheaper to ship.
Second, you could record/copy with VHS and studios hated that which is another reason they wanted to transition.

So, since DVD recording is readily available and cheap, you would agree that the studios would like to transition to BD since BD recording is not readily available.

Third, it will still be a few years before BD hits 35-40% of the market and by then BD prices will have dropped to near the same price as DVD, so the profits margins will be close to same... and DVD will still be selling 2x BD.

So now you can predict the market share & pricing of BD in the future but you chose HD DVD in the beginning to dominate the HiDef media format? :confused:
Not sure if I can trust your predictions.

Fourth, in 2 years virtually every TV and disc player will support streaming (even Sony (http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/01/07/sony-brings-yahoo-widgets-to-1080p-zbr9-z-series-hdtvs/)).

Just because they may have the ability to stream does not mean it will be used. It's like saying just because my car has a satellite receiver capabilities or OnStar that it's assumed to be enabled/used.

I have said all along in a couple years we will see a good mix of marketshare like this (just a guess):
BD - 25%
DVD-50%
Streaming-20%
??-5%
You have high hopes for streaming but predict it will be around 5-10% at most in the next 5 years as physical media stays as the preferred method for movie delivery to homes. Right now, a lot of streaming is free but as pricing goes up and streaming is no longer free, the usage will plateau quickly.
Streaming won't dominate until it's mass adopted in 10-20 years.

42Plasmaman

05-27-09, 02:36 PM

If Toshiba refuses to accept Bluray, they will begin to look like an antiquated company, especially if all they do is continue to push upconversion.

Kind of like how Netzero advertises that dial up can save you money and gets you to the same internet. :)
Their advertisment is true but we all know with dial up, the quality of your internet usage/experience suffers greatly.

Everdog

05-27-09, 03:18 PM

So, since DVD recording is readily available and cheap, you would agree that the studios would like to transition to BD since BD recording is not readily available.
Um, BD rips all over the Internet. My bet is every BD can easily be found. If you were a studio would you rather have people stealing 480p versions or 1080p versions of you best films?

So now you can predict the market share & pricing of BD in the future but you chose HD DVD in the beginning to dominate the HiDef media format? :confused:
Not sure if I can trust your predictions.
Wow, the format war again...why do you always bring that up? For the record, I never predicted BD would lose and never said HD DVD would dominate, and repeatedly said the 2 would co-exist..and was wrong.

Just because they may have the ability to stream does not mean it will be used. It's like saying just because my car has a satellite receiver capabilities or OnStar that it's assumed to be enabled/used..
Sure, that is why I said 20%. Also, I think most will watch a combination of DVD, BD and streaming in the future.

You have high hopes for streaming but predict it will be around 5-10% at most in the next 5 years as physical media stays as the preferred method for movie delivery to homes. Right now, a lot of streaming is free but as pricing goes up and streaming is no longer free, the usage will plateau quickly.
Streaming won't dominate until it's mass adopted in 10-20 years.
So you think streaming will dominate? Sounds like you are the one with high hopes!:D As you point out, I just say it will reach 20% of marketshare while disc will keep up to 75% in the next few years.

42Plasmaman

05-27-09, 04:52 PM

Um, BD rips all over the Internet. My bet is every BD can easily be found. If you were a studio would you rather have people stealing 480p versions or 1080p versions of you best films?

So can take those BD rips and burn them to a BD at a reasonable cost?
And if you did, you still need a BD player to watch them. :)
If they burn them to DVD, then they won't get the same PQ since the DVD output bandwidth is limited.

Or are you making another assumption that J6P is a savvy PC user and knows how to hunt, download these illegal rips and project the BD rip to his HDTV.
(*If this were true, I believe they call this digital media theft.)

pointless2

05-27-09, 06:58 PM

Everdog

05-27-09, 07:50 PM

So can take those BD rips and burn them to a BD at a reasonable cost?)

Um, no need to. Play them back from most PCs, laptops and now streaming devices (PS3, Xbox, WesternDigital, etc), or burn them to a DVD-R for a few pennies. I haven't looked for a while, but I remember last fall when I saw The Dark Knight ripped from a BD down to 8 GB so that it could fit on a cheap DVD...AND I saw it posted about 2 and 1/2 weeks before it was offically released. I am told that just about every big budget movie is available on the Internet at least 2 weeks before it release data and THAT is what studios hate. If you are going to copy an illegal version of a movie, do you go with the SD or HD version?

Anyway, that all off topic. Toshiba can do just fine without releasing a BD player. IMHO, I think they still might in about a year. My bet is that if they do it won't be a good one, and will stream HD video and be great at upscaling DVDs. Then, they will promote the heck out of the fact that DVDs and HD streams look just as good as BD. :D

42Plasmaman

05-27-09, 08:55 PM

Toshiba saw the writing on the wall last year and is the smarter corporation for it. They knew that disc-based media's day were coming to a close and made other plans.

I do believe that physical media will continue to be available, but more likely memory-based solutions where there are no real limits to the capacity and bandwidth. I'm not much for renting and would rather own, so streaming is not for me.
Really? :confused:
I thought it had to do with losing billions on getting Paramount to be HD DVD exclusive then Warner going blu-ray exclusive several months later.:D

ack_bk

05-28-09, 12:33 AM

I voted "Never".

I don't see that Blu-ray will ever be anything other than a niche product for videophiles. I sincerely doubt Blu-ray will ever see as much as 25% market share and more likely less than 20%. I personally am happy with that - both Blu-ray and HD DVD are the new laserdisc - and I loved laserdisc.

Toshiba saw the writing on the wall last year and is the smarter corporation for it. They knew that disc-based media's day were coming to a close and made other plans.

I do believe that physical media will continue to be available, but more likely memory-based solutions where there are no real limits to the capacity and bandwidth. I'm not much for renting and would rather own, so streaming is not for me.

Wow. You really like to bury your head in the sand don't you. You may want to checkout the Nielsen thread sometimes. You might be pretty surprised how much marketshare many Top 20 releases are getting on Blu-Ray this year.

At any rate, I really don't think it matters at all if Toshiba makes a Blu-Ray player as the vast majority of CE's are making them (Panasonic, LG, Samsung, Sony, Pioneer, Sharp, Magnavox, Phillips, Sylvania, Oppo, Denon, Marantz, Vizio, etc). Plenty of choice from some solid companies. Blu-Ray is clearly here to stay and at some point CE's and most retailers will only be pushing name brand Blu-Ray players and perhaps some generic DVD branded players. In a couple of years you will most likely find Blu-Ray players for $49 and higher and point will be moot. CE's and retailers will make the decision for the consumer.

And OP. You forgot to add the choice "who cares?".. So I didn't vote.

pointless2

05-28-09, 01:31 AM

Wow. You really like to bury your head in the sand don't you. You may want to checkout the Nielsen thread sometimes. You might be pretty surprised how much marketshare many Top 20 releases are getting on Blu-Ray this year.

I do read the Nielsen thread about once a week - I think that it is hilarious. Talk about obsessing over a format! :p

ack_bk

05-28-09, 02:03 AM

I do read the Nielsen thread about once a week - I think that it is hilarious. Talk about obsessing over a format! :p

So then you realize that Blu-Ray (for quite a few new releases) is sometimes accounting for 20% of all home video sales? For instance, Valkyrie last week was the #2 best selling title on DVD and 20% of it's sales were on Blu-Ray. And we are talking about unit sales. Revenue wise, that percentage would be even higher for this particular title on Blu-Ray since the Blu-Ray version typically sells for $3-10 more than the DVD versions.

So if you do realize things like this (because you are reading the Nielsen thread) then why make such ridiculous statements like you have in this thread? I hate to tell you, but Blu-Ray is not going anywhere. DVD sales are dropping, and Blu-Ray sales are increasing. I would not be surprised to see many day and date releases on Blu-Ray next year accounting for 30%+ of sales. Some may even get close to 50% on any given week.

What is funny to me is to wander into this subforum and still see such bitterness towards Blu-Ray..

Bozster

05-28-09, 07:00 AM

So can take those BD rips and burn them to a BD at a reasonable cost?
And if you did, you still need a BD player to watch them. :)
If they burn them to DVD, then they won't get the same PQ since the DVD output bandwidth is limited.

Or are you making another assumption that J6P is a savvy PC user and knows how to hunt, download these illegal rips and project the BD rip to his HDTV.
(*If this were true, I believe they call this digital media theft.)

Well you can call it whatver. The point is that every-single-person I know that downloaded HD rips to watch them, certainly didn't burn them to DVD or BD. They want it for free, so burning a disc is an expense they are certainly not going to accept.

The point is.. NAS devices, external hard drives, PCs connected to PS3s, Xbox 360s or whatever will be more and more homes. You don't need a Blu-ray player for that. Even CEs see that in order to sell Blu-ray players they have to integrated internet, Netflix and so on. Otherwise people don't buy.

DIdn't want to get off topic, just wanted to point out that nobody I know burns discs to Blu-rays :) Hell they don't burn stuff to DVDs. And I don't see that changing in the future. In fact, I know very little people who backup anything to optical media anymore. It's just very impractical. External 1tb drive for $90 is just so much more practical than $20 50gb BD-R and those HDD prices keep falling down and ridiculous rate with even higher capacity.

Bozster

05-28-09, 07:05 AM

So then you realize that Blu-Ray (for quite a few new releases) is sometimes accounting for 20% of all home video sales?

I'd be interested to see what are those quite a few BD releases that sell 20% of DVD version? Do you have links or charts for those?

bt12483

05-28-09, 07:39 AM

bt12483

05-28-09, 08:13 AM

I'd be interested to see what are those quite a few BD releases that sell 20% of DVD version? Do you have links or charts for those?

I would suggest you look here (since this is Offtopic).

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798272&page=219

Particularly at post #6562 and below.

Most recently Taken and Valkyrie have been doing about 20%.

Quantum of Solace has been doing about 25%.

And there are lots of others. Mainly action flicks, but it is not a rare occurrence anymore to see 20-25%, and as the weeks in release drag on, sometimes the blurays account for 50-75% of the copies sold in that week (V for Vendetta comes to mind). For example, here is the sales of Body of Lies:

Body of Lies
Week 1 in release: 21% of sales were on bluray
Week 2: 18%
Week 3: 21%
Week 4: 20%
Week 5: 21%
Week 6: 23%
Week 7: unknown
Week 8: 60%

You were not aware of this?:confused:

Everdog

05-28-09, 09:14 AM

Well you can call it whatver. The point is that every-single-person I know that downloaded HD rips to watch them, certainly didn't burn them to DVD or BD. They want it for free, so burning a disc is an expense they are certainly not going to accept.

The point is.. NAS devices, external hard drives, PCs connected to PS3s, Xbox 360s or whatever will be more and more homes. You don't need a Blu-ray player for that. Even CEs see that in order to sell Blu-ray players they have to integrated internet, Netflix and so on. Otherwise people don't buy.

DIdn't want to get off topic, just wanted to point out that nobody I know burns discs to Blu-rays :) Hell they don't burn stuff to DVDs. And I don't see that changing in the future. In fact, I know very little people who backup anything to optical media anymore. It's just very impractical. External 1tb drive for $90 is just so much more practical than $20 50gb BD-R and those HDD prices keep falling down and ridiculous rate with even higher capacity.

Sadly, you are 100% correct. I know several people who have tons of BD rips on their hard drives and they usually get them long before they are available to you and me (studios need to quit handing out BDs to too many people weeks in advance of release dates). No one of them put their movies on discs.

We are seeing the same trend with video as with music. People illegally download content because it is fast and easy. And they go the free and illegal route because they are not familiar with a service that does the same thing for a fair price.

For music, that has mostly changed. People now are flocking to iTunes, Amazon, etc. Most people I know who used to illegally download now tend to pay for their songs. I know that Apple and Amazon have made a bunch of money off of me!

Once people get more familiar with Netflix, iTunes, etc and more HD content becomes available, I hope that the very prevalent illegal downloading of BD rips declines. I guess the other thing is they can't pack videos to full of DRM and make them difficult to watch.

What does this have to do with Toshiba? Well as time goes on and overall disc sales decline (I did not say BD), they are weighing their options. They were the ones who said a few years back that disc based HDM would compliment DVD and not replace it.

42Plasmaman

05-28-09, 09:55 AM

42Plasmaman

05-28-09, 09:59 AM

People illegally download content because it is fast and easy. And they go the free and illegal route because they are not familiar with a service that does the same thing for a fair price.

So, all of sudden when HD streaming/download becomes "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals) they will have it in their heart to now pay for it when it will still be available for illegal download through their criminal download network? :rolleyes:

bt12483

05-28-09, 10:20 AM

It is not clear how important Toshiba is to Blu-ray.

I would think that Blu-ray is important to Toshiba if they want to keep selling HDTV's and computers.

1. Retailers are going to be offering Blu-ray players bundled with HDTV sets this next fall. This trend is very clear. I have already seen Toshiba HDTV's bundled with Sony Blu-ray players. This cannot be good for Toshiba.

Funny that you mention bundling HDM players with likebranded HDTVs...apparently Toshiba (used) to think the same thing was at least partially important...enough to mention it in a press release:

CES, LAS VEGAS - JANUARY 7, 2007
TOSHIBA DELIVERS - SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH OF SECOND GENERATION HD DVD PLAYERS COMPLETES THE SEAMLESS TRANSITION TO HIGH DEFINITION
...

"According to NPD Group data, the sales of HDTVs grew 52 percent between January and September of 2006. With the continued growth over this most recent holiday selling period and throughout 2007, we anticipate the demand for HD DVD to complement the demand and adoption of HDTVs," continued Sally. "There is no other high definition format in the market that can meet this demand with the same breadth of line and availability of players as Toshiba."

...
With black high gloss finishes and slim chassis designs, the new HD DVD player line has a refined, sleek appearance that complements Toshibas extensive TV line-up.
http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/news/newsarticle.asp?newsid=135

So, if Toshiba believed that HD DVD players complemented "demand and adoption of HDTVs" which included "Toshibas extensive TV line-up", why would a bluray player not do the exact same thing?:confused:

As usual, it appears that such thinking went out the window when they lost.

Everdog

05-28-09, 10:45 AM

So, all of sudden when HD streaming/download becomes "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals) they will have it in their heart to now pay for it when it will still be available for illegal download through their criminal download network? :rolleyes:

Well let's see what happened when music streaming/download became "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals)...Oh look..
CUPERTINO, California—April 3, 2008—Apple® today announced that the iTunes® Store (www.itunes.com) surpassed Wal-Mart to become the number one music retailer in the US, based on the latest data from the NPD Group*. With over 50 million customers, iTunes has sold over four billion songs and features the world’s largest music catalog of over six million songs.
I guess history is on my side!:D

bt12483

05-28-09, 11:07 AM

Well let's see what happened when music streaming/download became "aware/affordable" to these thieves(new age criminals)...Oh look..

I guess history is on my side!:D

That doesn't mean that people that stole music suddenly started buying it at iTunes.:rolleyes:

It means that now ~50% of the people that used to BUY their music at Walmart started buying it via iTunes. But they were music buyers all along. Not music stealers.

The people that stole music likely are still stealing it. You think once iTunes became available they suddenly said, "hey, why get this track for free when I can now buy it with Apple DRM and lesser quality for 99 cents". :rolleyes: Sorry - it doesn't work that way. Nothing is more "aware/affordable" than FREE downloads via limewire, torrent, etc. It is the ultimate convenience. More convenient than iTunes.

You can't equate a shift in music being purchased from one store to another store by saying suddenly people that formerly stole music now buy it from iTunes. Those people don't buy music. They didn't buy it from Walmart. They don't buy it from iTunes. They steal it.

If your theory were correct, the music industry would be showing an incredible growth in sales, since ALL of those people that used to steal are now using iTunes to BUY. But that isn't happening. Merely, sales are shifting from the B&M retailers to online retailers. But it is the same buyers buying. Just in a different way (Walmart vs iTunes). Just like the same stealers aren't buying, they are sitll stealing.

Everdog

05-28-09, 11:19 AM

It means that now ~50% of the people that used to BUY their music at Walmart started buying it via iTunes. But they were music buyers all along. Not music stealers.

The people that stole music likely are still stealing it.
As 42Plasmaman oftens says...link please. Where is you proof?

What we do know and have proof of is that once people became comfortable buying music downloads BILLIONS were sold over the Internet and download services quickly became some of the largest retailers in the US (and of course iTunes is #1). See my quote above.
If your theory were correct, the music industry would be showing an incredible growth in sales, since ALL of those people that used to steal are now using iTunes to BUY.

Um, no. People now have far more entertainment choices than just listening to music these days (video games are killing both music and video). I am not going to waste anymore time on this, but search the internet and read the studies.

42Plasmaman

05-28-09, 11:49 AM

As 42Plasmaman oftens says...link please. Where is you proof?

What we do know and have proof of is that once people became comfortable buying music downloads BILLIONS were sold over the Internet and download services quickly became some of the largest retailers in the US (and of course iTunes is #1). See my quote above.

Um, no. People now have far more entertainment choices than just listening to music these days (video games are killing both music and video). I am not going to waste anymore time on this, but search the internet and read the studies.
Your logic relies on that a digital media thief who now has a choice of:

A. Get the digital media for free like before using illegal downloads.
B. Buy the digital media because they have a conscience and want to feed the beast(corperations).

will switch to buying digital media.
I suspect they stick with option A until they get caught. Some people in society believe they are entitled to digital media for free and just because it's now available for purchase on the Internet isn't going to sway them in their morals or thought process.

bt12483

05-28-09, 11:55 AM

As 42Plasmaman oftens says...link please. Where is you proof?

New figures from media research group Nielsen SoundScan claim that U.S. sales of music CDs declinedby 20 percent in the first quarter of 2007 compared to the sale period a year ago, underscoring the music industry's sentiment that digital music downloads are undermining their business. SoundScan also offered figures for digital music sales, noting that while sales of digital albums fell during the same period, the sales of digital music singles actually rose. The numbers may indicate a fundamental shift in the music industry away from album-based sales to a singles-driven, digital market.
http://news.digitaltrends.com/news-article/12526/u-s-cd-sales-down-20-percent

Digital sales boost music industry
Album sales drop yet again
By PHIL GALLO

The music biz can't stem the bleeding, but for now, digital tracks are proving to be a secure Band-aid.

Album sales dropped for a seventh consecutive year, but a dramatic increase in the sale of digital tracks helped keep the music industry afloat in 2006.
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117956655.html?categoryid=16&cs=1

"The trends we're seeing in our consumer tracking studies are evidence of the continued transformation of the music industry," said Russ Crupnick, NPD’s entertainment industry analyst. "Just as music piracy and the advent of digital music ended the primacy of the CD, we are beginning to see new forms of listening challenge the practice of paying for music. The music industry now has to redouble efforts to intercept and engage these listeners, so they can create revenue through up-selling music, videos, concert tickets and related merchandise."
http://www.twice.com/article/CA6644692.html

What we do know and have proof of is that once people became comfortable buying music downloads BILLIONS were sold over the Internet and download services quickly became some of the largest retailers in the US (and of course iTunes is #1). See my quote above.
Yeah - people are buying singles as opposed to whole albums. Or in other words, shifting from physical to digital. This has nothing to do with people stealing music. It means people that buy music are buying it in a different way. But people that were stealing, or in other words GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE, have not suddenly started buying music. Why would they pay for something they have been getting for free?:confused:

Um, no. People now have far more entertainment choices than just listening to music these days (video games are killing both music and video).
And this has nothing to do with your original supposition that music thieves have suddenly turned into music buyers because of iTunes.

I am not going to waste anymore time on this, but search the internet and read the studies. Ditto.

Everdog

05-28-09, 01:39 PM

Yeah - people are buying singles as opposed to whole albums. Or in other words, shifting from physical to digital. This has nothing to do with people stealing music. It means people that buy music are buying it in a different way. But people that were stealing, or in other words GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE, have not suddenly started buying music. Why would they pay for something they have been getting for free?:confused:.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10223789-16.html
While the music industry desperately searches for ways to stem the tide of piracy that threatens to engulf it, new data from the BI Norwegian School of Management suggests that music pirates actually buy more music than others. A lot more.
As Ars Technica reports,
When it comes to P2P, it seems that those who wave the pirate flag are the most click-happy on services like the iTunes Store and Amazon MP3. BI said that those who said they download illegal music for "free" bought 10 times as much legal music as those who never download music illegally.

That pretty much proves your silly statement false. Not only are they legally buying music, they are 10x times more likely to do so than someone who NEVER downloaded illegally.

btw, it was the singles as opposed to whole albums and the price fixing by the music industry from 1995-2000 (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2002/10/01/entertainment/main523833.shtml)that drove people to downloading illegally in the first place. Once they finally had a legal option that was fair, many went that route.

/off topic

let's get back to Toshiba...

bt12483

05-28-09, 02:08 PM

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10223789-16.html

That pretty much proves your silly statement false. Not only are they legally buying music, they are 10x times more likely to do so than someone who NEVER downloaded illegally.

/off topic

Not quite.

Why? The same people in the Norwegian study also steal a lot more than the other people (who said they "never" download illegally).

Here is a simple example that shows how the article does not prove what you think it proves:
Let's say I don't steal music. I buy 1 album per year.

We know the people in the study steal music. They admitted it. To satisfy the 10x rate that they buy music more than me, that means a stealer would have to buy 10 albums in a year (since 10x my 1 album is 10 albums).

But here is the kicker...how much is the stealer stealing versus how much he is buying???:confused:

They bought 10 albums, but they could illegally download 300 albums in the same year.

So where does that the music industry at the end of the year?

They have 11 albums that were purchased by myself and the stealer combined, and 300 that were stolen by the stealer. I think even you can see that the situation is not good. 300:11 is not a good ratio to have. In simpler words, people are stealing more than they buy.

If all stealers also bought music at a 10x rate, the music industry simply would not be in decline. But it simply is. If everyone were buying more music than they steal, the industry would have ridiculous growth. It would not be shedding 20% CD sales, etc.

I can't believe you are still trying to pass this stuff, especially since you tried to tie the music industry behavior to downloading movies.

People steal music. It has been the bane of the music industry ever since Napster was released. Just because iTunes came out doesn't mean people stopped illegally downloading music. People are also now stealing movies. Just because they can get movies from other places, and even buy some, doesn't mean they aren't stealing, and doesn't mean they aren't stealing more than they buy.

Oh, and here is the record labels response to the same study:
Record label EMI doesn't quite buy into BI's stats, though. EMI's Bjørn Rogstad told Aftenposten that the results make it seem like free downloads stimulate pay downloads, but there's no way to know for sure. "There is one thing we are not going away, and it is the consumption of music increases, while revenue declines. It can not be explained in any way other than that the illegal downloading is over the legal sale of music," Rogstad said.

Rogstad's dismissal of the findings don't take into account that the online music model has dramatically changed how consumers buy music. Instead of selling a huge volume of full albums—the physical media model—the record labels are now selling a huge volume of individual, cherry-picked tracks. It's no secret that the old album format is in dire straits thanks to online music, which is a large part of why overall music revenue is going down.

BI's report corroborates data that the Canadian branch of the RIAA, the Canadian Record Industry Association, released in 2006. At that time, the organization acknowledged that P2P users do indeed buy more music than the industry wants to admit, and that P2P isn't the primary reason why other people aren't buying music. 73 percent of of respondents to the CRIA's survey said that they bought music after they downloaded it illegally, while the primary reason from the non-P2P camp for not buying music was attributed to plain old apathy.
http://arstechnica.com/media/news/2009/04/study-pirates-buy-tons-more-music-than-average-folks.ars

Why are revenues declining if illegal downloaders buy at a 10x rate? Hmmm...probably because the rate at which they steal is 100x. Not good when more of your product is stolen than bought.

Everdog

05-28-09, 03:01 PM

They have 11 albums that were purchased by myself and the stealer combined, and 300 that were stolen by the stealer. I think even you can see that the situation is not good. 300:11 is not a good ratio to have. In simpler words, people are stealing more than they buy.[/I]
Extremely flawed logic. The average person who illegally downloaded music in 1997 (you said they never change right?) would not buy 300 albums a year if he had no illegal option.

Anyway, I think we agree that your claim...
people that were stealing, or in other words GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE, have not suddenly started buying music.
...is false. They ARE buying music and a lot of it.

bt12483

05-28-09, 03:17 PM

Extremely flawed logic. The average person who illegally downloaded music in 1997 (you said they never change right?) would not buy 300 albums a year if he had no illegal option. :confused:

The point is someone can download 300 albums but only buy 10. If you had a B&M record store with that amount of "shrink", you would be out of business in a week.

This is the situation the music industry is facing.

Anyway, I think we agree that your claim...

...is false. They ARE buying music and a lot of it.

No. We agree on nothing.

If so much music is selling, then why are music industry revenues falling all the time?:confused:

Something doesn't add up. record labels make money from CDs. they make money from iTunes. They make money from Pandora. Yet why are revenues falling? Because they DON'T make money from illegal downloads.

People have been stealing loads of music ever since Napster came out, and every variation since (Kazaa, limewire, torrent, etc.). Surely you won't deny this simple fact, right?

Why do you think college campuses had to crack down? Kids were coming in and downloading a ridiculous amount of illegal material off of all of those campus T1 lines.

Why do you think the RIAA is suing 80 year old grandmothers? For fun? Because they are SCARED. Not to say the RIAA are good guys, but they are like a rat backed into a corner now. Desperate. Their property is getting stolen left and right.

What exactly are you getting at with your insistence here?

It is undeniable that people have been stealing loads of music for almost a decade now, and that it has had a tremendous effect on the music industry. This is regardless of the fact that music appears to be shifting from a physical landscape to the digital landscape, and from an album landscape to a single landscape (brought along by the physical to digital transition). I can download a CD 2 weeks before it hits stores. Just because people changed from buying a CD to buying an mp3 doesn't mean they don't steal even more than what they buy.

SO WHAT IS YOUR POINT?:confused: Whatever it is it is full of fallacies.

Lee Stewart

05-28-09, 04:04 PM

Bozster

05-28-09, 04:15 PM

bt12483

05-28-09, 04:18 PM

Why I picked never for the poll . . .

1. The longer Toshiba waits to make a BD player - the lower the price goes which means the lower the profit goes.

2. AFAIK, Toshiba holds zero patents on BD so the only profit they will derive is from the sale of their BD players.

3. We have see a while ago, Toshiba file for patents for quad layer DVD.

4. At CES they showed a system consisting of a 4K 60" FPD and a CELL BE based processor that upconverts HD to 4K. Supposedly to be released (the system) in Japan Q3 this year.

5. A "tell" that Toshiba is getting ready to release a BD player would be for them to join the BDA - that hasn't happened yet.

1. That doesn't stop them from making new DVD players. XDE anyone?? What's the difference? If they can see fit to sell the XDE at $149.99 (initially) even though $29.99 DVD players are out, surely they can find a price point for a bluray player. After all, every other CE has.

2. Might come with 5.

3. And? You know how many patents are issued that are never commercialized? Toshiba was also supposed to come out with a "Super resolution" DVD player - that never happened.

4. Too far ahead of its time to make an impact or be commercialized on a large scale.

5. Maybe they are busy "reorganizing" the DVD Forum...or focusing on XDE2, or that little SD card player thing, that may/may not actually play HD content. Let me know when they are intersted in HD again, as opposed to upscaling trickery.

Why did Toshiba used to believe that HDM was a selling point for HDTVs, yet now they try to peddle XDE with HDTVs? Isn't this an insult to HD DVD owners?

"According to NPD Group data, the sales of HDTVs grew 52 percent between January and September of 2006. With the continued growth over this most recent holiday selling period and throughout 2007, we anticipate the demand for HD DVD to complement the demand and adoption of HDTVs," continued Sally. "There is no other high definition format in the market that can meet this demand with the same breadth of line and availability of players as Toshiba."

...
With black high gloss finishes and slim chassis designs, the new HD DVD player line has a refined, sleek appearance that complements Toshibas extensive TV line-up.
http://www.tacp.toshiba.com/news/newsarticle.asp?newsid=135

Wouldn't a nice Toshiba bluray player fill the gap left by HD DVD? What can they market with their HDTVs now? Nothing that is real HD.

mike171979

05-28-09, 04:22 PM

So, if Toshiba believed that HD DVD players complemented "demand and adoption of HDTVs" which included "Toshibas extensive TV line-up", why would a bluray player not do the exact same thing?:confused:

As usual, it appears that such thinking went out the window when they lost.

Its pretty sad when anyone or any organization, in this case Toshiba, completely back tracks and ignores what its true beliefs are, just to not look like a failure.

I mean Toshiba really needs to let it go.

For them to suddenly say that a High Definition physical format is useless, just because HD DVD lost, is sad. Not only is it sad, it represents a completely flawed strategy.

They should have dumped EVERYONE that was the slightest bit involved with the development of HD DVD, and get totally new people in there, so that hard feelings won't effect future decisions.

Bozster

05-28-09, 04:34 PM

I would suggest you look here (since this is Offtopic).

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=798272&page=219

Particularly at post #6562 and below.

Most recently Taken and Valkyrie have been doing about 20%.

Quantum of Solace has been doing about 25%.

And there are lots of others. Mainly action flicks, but it is not a rare occurrence anymore to see 20-25%, and as the weeks in release drag on, sometimes the blurays account for 50-75% of the copies sold in that week (V for Vendetta comes to mind). For example, here is the sales of Body of Lies:

Body of Lies
Week 1 in release: 21% of sales were on bluray
Week 2: 18%
Week 3: 21%
Week 4: 20%
Week 5: 21%
Week 6: 23%
Week 7: unknown
Week 8: 60%

You were not aware of this?:confused:

So you take 2 movies as a trend? From Kosty's posts in that other thread I see that individual title sales hover around 10-15% and they peak on ocassion to 20%.. Paul Blart was a single case I've seen in a long time that sold 25% of DVD version.

You look at BD/DVD*100 numbers right? Cause that's the percentage of unit sales.

Blu-ray still has a looooong way to go when you look at some of these charts, especially this one:

http://i39.tinypic.com/2v7uglc.jpg

and this is why I think we'll see mixed market where Blu-ray hardware and software won't be making nearly the amount of money as DVD. When DVD was around there weren't so many other ways of getting content.

Since market will be segmented as Everdog said (which is pretty logical) I don't see Toshiba investing anything in Blu-ray but trying to dominate other content delivery methods and physical distribution through media and DVD.

I can see in the next 5 years market being 50% DVD, 25% Blu-ray, 25% Digital Downloads/Subscriptions/VOD with slowly marketshare going in favor of digital content delivery after that especially if we see Apple and others introducing kiosks and other methods of getting content in a form other then optical media which is by itself technology deprecated and growth limited.

Lee Stewart

05-28-09, 04:37 PM

Mitsubishi makes all kinds of HDTV's:

http://www.mitsubishi-tv.com/

I don't see a BD player.

ottscay

05-28-09, 04:43 PM

I thin your logic is flawed...

Given your response after that I'd take it as a compliment.

First VHS cost much more (and takes a lot longer) to produce than DVD (so studios wanted to get away from it), while BD cost more than DVD.

Um, not when DVD first came out it didn't. You can't compare DVD 6 years after adoption to BD now, that's comparing apples to space shuttles.

Also, DVDs are lighter and take up less space, therefore they are cheaper to ship.

Technically BD cases are smaller and therefore marginally cheaper to ship en masse as well. Regardless, the cost difference in both cases is insignificant compared to other costs and played no significant role.

Second, you could record/copy with VHS and studios hated that which is another reason they wanted to transition.

Um...have you been to Dell or a Fry's lately? DVD burner's are very common and frequently used to back up DVDs. For movie producers the problem is probably worse with DVD than it was for VHS, as copying VHS tapes required either a special dubbing deck with two VHS slots to record from one tape to another, or else two DVD players in a row, which made significantly degraded copies. DVD ripping is common and produces a copy with no degradation. Presumably that's why several studios invested a lot of money into enhanced copyright protection.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of such schemes, but you're flat wrong if you think VHS copying of movies was more of a problem then DVDs are (even if you don't burn new copies, people make digital copies of their DVDs and then use them on computers, iPods, etc too!).

Third, it will still be a few years before BD hits 35-40% of the market and by then BD prices will have dropped to near the same price as DVD, so the profits margins will be close to same... and DVD will still be selling 2x BD.

I doubt your numbers. First of all, DVD sales are dropping, and are only being propped up as high as they are by continuing to slash margins (in essence, aside from new releases they are selling things to be only because they prices are so low that consumers figure it's worth a couple of bucks). The rate at which DVD margins are dissapearing mean BD revenue will catch DVD sooner rather than later. Given the 15%+ already seen, I'd expect to see 25-30% after next holiday season, maybe higher if falling HDTV prices increase consumer penetration faster.

There is no way BD movie prices will fall as fast as you imply (e.g. so fast they will be priced the same as DVDs in a couple years). The main factor inhibiting growth in BD is having enough HDTVs installed (primary consumer adoption) not media prices, while the main factor inhibiting DVD sales is market saturation (hence reduced prices are the only way to go). Claiming otherwise demonstrates your lack of a grasp on the market forces involved.

Fourth, in 2 years virtually every TV and disc player will support streaming

Um, how about "in 2 years virtually every high end TV and disc player ON SALE will support streaming". People who bought TVs last year are not going to run out and buy new ones in two years just because they let you watch youtube videos.

Also, in your haste to repeat anti-BD talking points, you miss an obvious fact; the market is already fragmented, and has been throughout most of DVDs life cycle as well. Movies on Demand aren't a new thing that just showed up last year. The fact that hotels, satellite, DVRs, etc have been out for most of the last decade didn't meant that DVD wasn't the industries bread and butter for packaged media. And there aren't going to be DVD players for sale in two years with streaming ability, they will be Blu-ray players. This added convenience will be one more reason why late adopters will switch to Blu-ray, not something that will hinder its adoption. But if you think video on demand will replace packaged media in the next few years, you're engaging in wishful speculation.

I have said all along...

And how has your track record been so far?

... in a couple years we will see a good mix of marketshare like this (just a guess):
BD - 25%
DVD-50%
Streaming-20%
??-5%

Those numbers are meaningless without more context. Are they unit or revenue? What is the current marketshare of VoD applications (you realize that "streaming" is just a new form of delivery for VoD, right?). Do you think streaming VoD is likely to cannibalize disk sales (why more than VoD already has?), erode already existing VoD sales (e.g. may no real impact on disk sales) or simply merge with current VoD choices from a consumers point of view (e.g. have satellite companies stream more choices right to the TV).

You are just repeating banal platitudes that give specious reasons why the same market forces that have worked for the last 20 years are suddenly going to change, handing you personal revenge by stopping BD from becoming the dominant packaged media format.

Steeb

05-28-09, 04:45 PM

bt12483

05-28-09, 04:52 PM

So you take 2 movies as a trend?

I am not going to dig up all the releases that have averaged at 20% or higher. The Dark Knight has. Probably Iron Man. Probably Hellboy II. Eagle Eye. You figure it out.

And yes, there is a trend. Most new actions flicks do about 20% on bluray.

Blu-ray still has a looooong way to go when you look at some of these charts Long way for what? I enjoy the hell out of blurays I buy and rent regardless of their % of sales versus DVD.

and this is why I think we'll see mixed market where Blu-ray hardware and software won't be making nearly the amount of money as DVD. When DVD was around there weren't so many other ways of getting content.

Since market will be segmented as Everdog said (which is pretty logical) I don't see Toshiba investing anything in Blu-ray but trying to dominate other content delivery methods and physical distribution through media and DVD.

I can see in the next 5 years market being 50% DVD, 25% Blu-ray, 25% Digital Downloads/Subscriptions/VOD with slowly marketshare going in favor of digital content delivery after that especially if we see Apple and others introducing kiosks and other methods of getting content in a form other then optical media which is by itself technology deprecated and growth limited.
Bluray sales are killing digital download sales. And digital downloads have been out longer. Exactly when will downloads be taking off again? When bluray players are $99 and movies are about the same as DVD is now?

I keep hearing about downloads, but yet they are still clocking single digit %'s all around. Apple TV has been out for over 2 years (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV). I don't see it making many waves. Vudu has been out for over a year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vudu). Where are the sales???

If bluray and downloads will be 25% each in 5 years....downloads already have a lot of catching up to do.

bt12483

05-28-09, 04:56 PM

Mitsubishi makes all kinds of HDTV's:

http://www.mitsubishi-tv.com/

I don't see a BD player.

And Westinghouse doesn't either.:rolleyes:

Question: Would Toshiba rather be compared with Mitsu and Westinghouse, or LG, Samsung and Panasonic?

Unless they want their brand image to fall, I would hope they choose to compete with the higher end of the CE pool...not the lower end.

Not too mention that fact that Toshiba USED to explictly mention in press releases how grrrreat their HD DVD players worked with HDTVs, especially Toshiba HDTVs. Obviously the intent was there to bundle HD DVD players with HDTVs, preferably Toshiba HDTVs. Now what do they have to bundle??? The XDE? Which is $79.99 and quickly falling off store shelves to discontinued status?

ottscay

05-28-09, 04:57 PM

Why I picked never for the poll . . .

1. The longer Toshiba waits to make a BD player - the lower the price goes which means the lower the profit goes.

Profit of course is equal to net take per unit x number of units sold. There is quite likely a lot more profit to be made as prices come down, especially since Toshiba can take advantage of ready-made chipset designs. In addition to this, the importance of brand support (letting Toshiba fans buy a Toshiba disk player along with their shiny new LCD TV) is valuable too. Toshiba risks losing TV and other electronics sales if their brand loses appeal by not making a product in a popular market segment. Ask Sony how many DVD players they sold in the 1980's compared to other companies.

2. AFAIK, Toshiba holds zero patents on BD so the only profit they will derive is from the sale of their BD players.

See above comments about the importance of brand recognition and perception. Still, you are right that they will certainly not make one if they think it will hurt their DVD royalties. Still, the writing will probably be on the wall by the end of this year.

3. We have see a while ago, Toshiba file for patents for quad layer DVD.

Which is almost certainly irrelevant for the foreseeable future. Possibly even more so now that management is changed at Toshiba.

4. At CES they showed a system consisting of a 4K 60" FPD and a CELL BE based processor that upconverts HD to 4K. Supposedly to be released (the system) in Japan Q3 this year.

Much like OLED TVs I imagine (oops, they already failed to appear last year...maybe this year?). Toshiba is not going to invest a lot of money in an economic downturn to try and introduce a new format, and it wouldn't save DVD even if they did. It would cost more money, and they'd probably still have to sell a rebadged Toshiba BD player in the long run.

Ultimately it's their brand to do whatever they see fit to it, but my guess is "never" is too long to wait, especially with new management that didn't lose face on HD DVD.

ottscay

05-28-09, 04:59 PM

So you take 2 movies as a trend? From Kosty's posts in that other thread I see that individual title sales hover around 10-15% and they peak on ocassion to 20%.

You realize that BD has only been competing against DVD as the defacto followup format (e.g. after the format war) for less than a year and a half, right? How much of VHS's sales where DVD after 18 months of competition?

can see in the next 5 years market being 50% DVD, 25% Blu-ray, 25% Digital Downloads/Subscriptions/VOD with slowly marketshare going in favor of digital content delivery after that especially if we see Apple and others introducing kiosks and other methods of getting content in a form other then optical media which is by itself technology deprecated and growth limited.

Wow, how do you generate those numbers??? First of all, since BD sales already hit as high as 20-25% on individual titles, do you really think BD sales are going to grow no more than 20% from this point over the next 5 years? Really??? And are you looking at unit or revenue? How will DVD sales stay that high since they have been falling while BD sales grow?

Also, 25% to VoD (in all it's flavors) how? Do you mean it will take 1/4 of the current disk market? Or did you mean of all video revenue? What is it at now? Given how popular VoD is now, is that even growth in the overall market? You guys post these numbers as if they mean somthing, but you don't even know what the numbers are now for goodness sake.

Lee Stewart

05-28-09, 05:00 PM

And Westinghouse doesn't either.:rolleyes:

Question: Would Toshiba rather be compared with Mitsu and Westinghouse, or LG, Samsung and Panasonic?

Unless they want their brand image to fall, I would hope they choose to compete with the higher end of the CE pool...not the lower end.

Toshiba is a $70+ Billion company.

So how much of that $70+B comes from their consumer electronics division?

Splicer010

05-28-09, 05:02 PM

Toshiba's whole approach to HDM has turned me off so badly that I will never consider buying another Toshiba product ever again.

Boo-hoo-hoo...:rolleyes:

I thought there already was a poll asking the exact same question??? Maybe another forum I guess...

Never...And Toshiba has already made their position clear that they will not support blu-ray...

bt12483

05-28-09, 05:03 PM

Which story to believe... hmmmm....

Looks like someone now cares....:rolleyes:;)

Lee Stewart

05-28-09, 05:05 PM

You realize that BD has only been competing against DVD as the defacto followup format (e.g. after the format war) for less than a year and a half, right? How much of VHS's sales where DVD after 18 months of competition?

That might not be a good question to ask because of DIVX - which was introduced 12/98 and died 6/99. DVD's "format war" didn't happen from the getgo (March 1997).

Also check when BBi started to offer DVD's for rental - you should find the answer to be around Q1 2000.

bt12483

05-28-09, 05:26 PM

Toshiba is a $70+ Billion company.

So how much of that $70+B comes from their consumer electronics division?

It doesn't matter. That has no relevance.

The only relevant matter is Toshiba makes DVD players and (HD)TVs. They used to actually make HD DVD players too...now they don't seem to care about HD too much though.

The glaringly obvious point is that Toshiba is now missing HD from their product offering(s). While the majority of their DIRECT competitors have it. Not good to let your competition one up you.

bt12483

05-28-09, 05:31 PM

...Never...And Toshiba has already made their position clear that they will not support blu-ray...

When is Nishida "bowing out" again?

Oh that's right:
TOKYO -- Facing the prospect of a record loss and the possible need for additional capital to shore up a battered balance sheet, Toshiba Corp. said its chief executive will step down in June and be succeeded by a veteran of the company's nuclear-power business.

Norio Sasaki, the 59-year-old head of Toshiba's infrastructure systems group, will become the next president and CEO in June, pending shareholder approval. The current CEO, Atsutoshi Nishida, 65, will become the company's chairman as part of the management change. Tadashi Okamura, the current chairman, will become an adviser to the board.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123736435351268601.html

So in a few days the old guy is out. Wonder if anything will change....

ottscay

05-28-09, 06:05 PM

I'm not sure what the point of the poll was, but from it's results I think we can conclude that somewhere between 40 and 45.45% of the people that use these forums see the world through grudge-colored glasses...

Lee Stewart

05-28-09, 07:37 PM

Bozster

05-28-09, 08:15 PM

I am not going to dig up all the releases that have averaged at 20% or higher. The Dark Knight has. Probably Iron Man. Probably Hellboy II. Eagle Eye. You figure it out.

It's an ocassional flick that appeals to a specific demographic. It's far from a trend for all releases.

Long way for what? I enjoy the hell out of blurays I buy and rent regardless of their % of sales versus DVD.

Long way of getting real marketshare in terms of numbers. I enjoy the hell out of it too but that's not what I'm saying.

Bluray sales are killing digital download sales. And digital downloads have been out longer.

Longer how? We just had maybe a year of real digital downloads/subscription services. And they are growing at a rapid rate because people like them and convenience. The fact that major CE Blu-ray manufacturers are integrating Netflix just shows you where it's going.

And btw, VOD/Digital Downloads made more money then Blu-ray in the last article I read from Video Business.

I keep hearing about downloads, but yet they are still clocking single digit %'s all around. Apple TV has been out for over 2 years (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_TV). I don't see it making many waves. Vudu has been out for over a year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vudu). Where are the sales???

We have Blu-ray for 3 years. Where are the sales???? It's growing in single digit percentage as well.

Digital content delivery is just at a swing. It has growing pains (somewhat different from BLu-ray's but still present), just like Blu-ray did, but unlike Blu-ray once the problems are fixed there's no ceiling in growth. Add convenience and it's easy to see it's the future and that the market will most likely be split between various content delivery methods.

Unlike your way of thinking, I don't diss BLu-ray but I also get content from a variety of other sources, a thing that was not present when DVD was growing. So to imply that Blu-ray is the next DVD is extremely optimistic, especially since studios nor CEs are too happy about the fact that consumers are completely uninterested for Blu-ray unless they lower the prices close to DVD, which is by itself something they want to avoid.

This brings me to Toshiba. Why in the hell would someone who has majority of royalties from still most present format (DVD) even get into Blu-ray. They might as well just jump on board, keep holding the DVD market plus helping growing new digital medium for physical distribution in online content delivery.

As a businessman that makes more sense to me then getting into Blu-ray market which is still in less then or just about 10% of all market. Don't confuse individual title sales percentages to overall unit sales on both formats.

As I said, Blu-ray has a looong way to go to reach serious market penetration among housholds and become a true standard. Right now it's still an enthusiast format.

If bluray and downloads will be 25% each in 5 years....downloads already have a lot of catching up to do.

They don't have a lot of catching up to do because unlike Blu-ray, people will be able to utilize download networks from the equipment they already have. Unlike Blu-ray who still needs to actually physically occupy retailer locations and rely on hardware and so on.

The problem online content delivery has (let's call it that because it's not just digital downloads we are talking about, we are talking about any way of delivering content through your online connection) which is slowly getting resolved but if they reach 25% within 5 years (which I'm pretty sure it's not a problem) and Blu-ray takes 25%, it's still not going to be anywhere near the standard as a format. DVD will be king for a long time IMO while the rest of the market will be split between Blu-ray and other ways of content delivery, as least IMO.

We are looking at very diverse future IMO. The age of optical media will be behind us as it's already declining. How many more articles we have to post here that show that Blu-ray simply won't be able to compensate for DVD decline.

I would've thought it's very obvious. And if that's something we can expect, then I don't see Toshiba getting involved with Blu-ray when they can have a much more lucrative business supplying remaining DVD and alternative content delivery methods and hardware instead of Blu-ray where they have to pay others to release hardware. I don't expect nor want Blu-ray to fail cause I enjoy it a lot and would like it to provide us with content until a better and more flexible way of delivering content takes over (which would be digital downloads) but I still think they won't grab nowhere near significant market share as DVD did. From Toshiba point of view, if we go with my estimate that let's say by 2015 we'll have 50% DVD/25% BD/25% online content) ratio, I would definitely understand them wanting to keep a hand in 75% of the market (which is DVD+alternative formats) instead of 25% of the BD market. Just putting numbers to illustrate the point.

A simple example is Samsung, LG and other who are integrating online services for content delivery in their BLu-ray players. How long do you think will take before people realize that instead of going to the Blockbuster or going to the store to pick up a new Blu-ray movie, it's just less problematic to use online delivery on the Blu-ray player or PC or whatever. I say not too long, especially since when I watched Netflix HD latest shows like CSI they look pretty damn good. The point here is that unlike Blu-ray, theoretically, with online delivery we can have all content immediately available. How long do you have to wait until you get your latest TV show or whatever on BLu-ray? That right there is the key. People want instant gratification and that human nature won't change.

bt12483

05-28-09, 09:38 PM

It's an ocassional flick that appeals to a specific demographic. It's far from a trend for all releases. If you wouldn't have chopped up my comment, you would have seen:
And yes, there is a trend. Most new actions flicks do about 20% on bluray.
It's not "an occasional flick" - its the majority of new action titles.

The fact that major CE Blu-ray manufacturers are integrating Netflix just shows you where it's going. But Netflix is a subscription service that offers streaming as a value added incentive. People don't sign up to Netflix to stream primarily. They sign up to rent discs.

And btw, VOD/Digital Downloads made more money then Blu-ray in the last article I read from Video Business.
VOD and digital downloads are separate in my mind. VOD is through your cable provider, and it equivalent to PPV, which has been out for years.

Digital downloads are dedicated boxes, like AppleTV and Vudu.

The last chart I saw from Video Business/HMM showed single digit use for VOD and digital downloads, while bluray and DVD were double digits.

We have Blu-ray for 3 years. Where are the sales???? It's growing in single digit percentage as well. Compared to what? DVD? bluray software sales have already sold as much in 2009 as all of 2008. Players are estimated to double to ~6M sold worldwide.

Digital content delivery is just at a swing. It has growing pains (somewhat different from BLu-ray's but still present), just like Blu-ray did, but unlike Blu-ray once the problems are fixed there's no ceiling in growth. Add convenience and it's easy to see it's the future and that the market will most likely be split between various content delivery methods.

Unlike your way of thinking, I don't diss BLu-ray but I also get content from a variety of other sources, a thing that was not present when DVD was growing. So to imply that Blu-ray is the next DVD is extremely optimistic, especially since studios nor CEs are too happy about the fact that consumers are completely uninterested for Blu-ray unless they lower the prices close to DVD, which is by itself something they want to avoid.

This brings me to Toshiba. Why in the hell would someone who has majority of royalties from still most present format (DVD) even get into Blu-ray. They might as well just jump on board, keep holding the DVD market plus helping growing new digital medium for physical distribution in online content delivery.

As a businessman that makes more sense to me then getting into Blu-ray market which is still in less then or just about 10% of all market. Don't confuse individual title sales percentages to overall unit sales on both formats.

As I said, Blu-ray has a looong way to go to reach serious market penetration among housholds and become a true standard. Right now it's still an enthusiast format.

They don't have a lot of catching up to do because unlike Blu-ray, people will be able to utilize download networks from the equipment they already have. Unlike Blu-ray who still needs to actually physically occupy retailer locations and rely on hardware and so on.

The problem online content delivery has (let's call it that because it's not just digital downloads we are talking about, we are talking about any way of delivering content through your online connection) which is slowly getting resolved but if they reach 25% within 5 years (which I'm pretty sure it's not a problem) and Blu-ray takes 25%, it's still not going to be anywhere near the standard as a format. DVD will be king for a long time IMO while the rest of the market will be split between Blu-ray and other ways of content delivery, as least IMO.

We are looking at very diverse future IMO. The age of optical media will be behind us as it's already declining. How many more articles we have to post here that show that Blu-ray simply won't be able to compensate for DVD decline.

I would've thought it's very obvious. And if that's something we can expect, then I don't see Toshiba getting involved with Blu-ray when they can have a much more lucrative business supplying remaining DVD and alternative content delivery methods and hardware instead of Blu-ray where they have to pay others to release hardware. I don't expect nor want Blu-ray to fail cause I enjoy it a lot and would like it to provide us with content until a better and more flexible way of delivering content takes over (which would be digital downloads) but I still think they won't grab nowhere near significant market share as DVD did. From Toshiba point of view, if we go with my estimate that let's say by 2015 we'll have 50% DVD/25% BD/25% online content) ratio, I would definitely understand them wanting to keep a hand in 75% of the market (which is DVD+alternative formats) instead of 25% of the BD market. Just putting numbers to illustrate the point.

A simple example is Samsung, LG and other who are integrating online services for content delivery in their BLu-ray players. How long do you think will take before people realize that instead of going to the Blockbuster or going to the store to pick up a new Blu-ray movie, it's just less problematic to use online delivery on the Blu-ray player or PC or whatever. I say not too long, especially since when I watched Netflix HD latest shows like CSI they look pretty damn good. The point here is that unlike Blu-ray, theoretically, with online delivery we can have all content immediately available. How long do you have to wait until you get your latest TV show or whatever on BLu-ray? That right there is the key. People want instant gratification and that human nature won't change.

When Toshiba's DVD patents run out in ~2014 and 2016, we shall see. Though I think they make a move before then.

And I think you grossly overestimate how many people will utilize digital downloads. Physical media is still leaps and bounds preferred over digital methods. And most analysts and industry people do not see this changing for a good while.

Richard Paul

05-28-09, 10:23 PM

Personally speaking I think that companies are usually logical and unlike people they would not carry a grudge against a video format. Assuming that it is profitable to sell stand alone Blu-ray players, and based on the number of CE companies that sell stand alone Blu-ray players I consider that to be very likely, than I think that Toshiba will eventually release a stand alone Blu-ray player.

Never...And Toshiba has already made their position clear that they will not support blu-ray...I have never seen Toshiba say that they would not support Blu-ray. Could you link to the article where Toshiba said that?

Lee Stewart

05-28-09, 10:54 PM

I have never seen Toshiba say that they would not support Blu-ray. Could you link to the article where Toshiba said that?

Toshiba did not equip any of its notebooks with a BluRay drive so far, and this won’t change in the future. The Toshiba senior vice president Yoshihide Fujii told, that they won’t equip a recorder or player with a BluRay drive.External observers think that there are two reasons for this statement. Firstly, the manufacturer does not want to support its competitor Sony. Secondly, the BluRay Disc Association wants a $ 30 fee for each device which offers a BluRay drive.

In a former interview Toshiba representives told us, that Toshiba counts on downloadable HD content or other alternative storage methods (SD cards for example).

http://www.notebookcheck.net/Newsentry.153+M525b851e85a.0.html

"We have no intention of adopting Blu-ray for our DVD players and recorders,” corporate senior vice president Yoshihide Fujii said at a press conference to in Tokyo, Japan, last week, reports TradingMarkets.com web-site.

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20080923252610_Toshiba_Still_Has_No_Intention_of_Adopting_Bl u_Ray.html

Splicer010

05-28-09, 10:59 PM

Thanks Lee...;)

Richard Paul

05-29-09, 12:09 AM

http://www.notebookcheck.net/Newsentry.153+M525b851e85a.0.html

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20080923252610_Toshiba_Still_Has_No_Intention_of_Adopting_Bl u_Ray.htmlInteresting, though I would mention that saying in September of 2008 that Toshiba had no intention of selling a stand alone Blu-ray player/recorder is not the same as saying that they will not support Blu-ray. After all intentions can change with time and for example that quote could be accurate even if Toshiba were to release a stand alone Blu-ray player in 2010.

b.greenway

05-29-09, 12:18 AM

Really? :confused:
I thought it had to do with losing billions on getting Paramount to be HD DVD exclusive then Warner going blu-ray exclusive several months later.:D

Now its billions?

Lee Stewart

05-29-09, 01:10 AM

Interesting, though I would mention that saying in September of 2008 that Toshiba had no intention of selling a stand alone Blu-ray player/recorder is not the same as saying that they will not support Blu-ray. After all intentions can change with time and for example that quote could be accurate even if Toshiba were to release a stand alone Blu-ray player in 2010.

Not a quote from a Toshiba exec:

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Strangely enough, Blu-ray is a non-topic so far at CES 2009 - and is trumped by presentations about Wireless HD as well as Internet content streaming. Toshiba is still not offering Blu-ray players and today said that it won’t introduce such players in 2009 either.

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/40883/97/

Guess we will have to wait until CES 2010 to see what their position for 2010 on BD is.

Grubert

05-29-09, 04:00 AM

Longer how? We just had maybe a year of real digital downloads/subscription services. And they are growing at a rapid rate because people like them and convenience. The fact that major CE Blu-ray manufacturers are integrating Netflix just shows you where it's going.

This just came up:

The Streaming Content Is There, But Not Enough People Are Watching It — Yet (http://gigaom.com/2009/05/29/the-streaming-content-is-there-but-not-enough-people-are-watching-it-yet/)

Over the past 12 months, we’ve seen a lot of new content offerings announced by companies like Netflix, Amazon and YouTube as they look to directly target the living room via entertainment devices. Indeed, the adoption rate of hardware devices like the Xbox 360, PS3, TiVo, Roku, VUDU, Apple TV and broadband-enabled Blu-ray players and TV sets will be crucial in determining if content owners can make money delivering video to the TV.

But despite all these new offerings, that content still only reaches a few million customers, a number largely unchanged from this time last year. Such low adoption rates in the face of so much effort leads me to think that while the market of delivering content to the TV will grow, it is unlikely to do so at the rate that many in this industry would like to believe. In fact I don’t think we’ll see these devices having a combined impact in any measurable way for at least another 3-4 years.

Here is a breakdown on the number of devices on the market and some data on the volume of content being consumed on them:

Xbox 360: Microsoft has so far sold 15.1 million Xbox 360 consoles in North America, according to NPD. Since the Xbox LIVE Video Marketplace launched in November 2006, there have been more than 42 million downloads of entertainment content, which includes movies, TV shows, music videos and featured trailers, Redmond told me, while Xbox 360 owners have downloaded nearly 12.3 million hours of video content from the Xbox LIVE Video Store.

Xbox/Netflix: As of February, 1 million Xbox LIVE Gold members had downloaded and activated the application for streaming Netflix movies to the Xbox 360 console. Meanwhile, users had watched more than 1.5 billion minutes of movies and TV episodes from the Netflix Watch Instantly library.

TiVo: While TiVo doesn’t break out how many Series 1, 2 or 3 units have been sold individually, it has 1.6 million standalone TiVo subscribers. I estimate that 65 percent of those are Series 2, which means that there are roughly 525,000 Series 3 TiVos today. The company has said that 85 percent of its HD TiVos are connected via broadband, which puts the number of units capable of getting content via Amazon or Netflix at around 445,000. For DVRs that can get YouTube content the number is likely higher, since YouTube only requires a Series 2 DVR.

Roku: Roku won’t say how many units it’s sold to date, but if we estimate that 3 percent of Netflix’s 10.3 million subscribers at the end of the first quarter bought the $99 unit, a total of about 300,000 Roku units have been sold.

VUDU: VUDU told me it’s sold “five figures” worth of devices, which I believe is less than 50,000 units.

Apple TV: Published reports put the number of Apple TVs sold at less than 500,000. Notably, of course, Apple has, on multiple occasions, acknowledged that the device hasn’t been nearly as successful as the company had hoped it would be.

Blockbuster Mediapoint Player: The company has never offered up numbers as to how many of these have been sold, nor has anyone really bothered to hazard a guess. Bottom line: Blockbuster has no online video strategy of any kind and while the Mediapoint player was first unveiled some five months ago, when you visit the Blockbuster.com web site, it’s nowhere to be found.

Broadband-enabled TVs: There are more than 50 broadband-enabled TV models due out in 2009, but analysts estimate that only about 3 million total sets will be sold in the next two years combined.

Broadband-enabled Blu-ray Players: To date, 9.6 million Blu-ray players have been sold, but less than 2 million of them don’t include the PS3, according to DEG. While new broadband-enabled players continue to be released into the market, the total number of sales to date has to be less than 50,000.

Even with all these numbers, they don’t truly give us an idea of the growth, as there are a lot of unanswered questions. For starters, Microsoft won’t say how many of the 15.1 million Xbox 360 consoles are connected to a broadband connection. And while Netflix says that a million Xbox LIVE members have downloaded and installed the Netflix app for their Xbox 360, since Netflix offers free 48-hour streaming trials to Xbox 360 owners, we don’t know how many paying Netflix subscribers are using the service today. With Netflix spending about 5 cents to stream every movie to the Xbox 360, clearly content offerings such as this are not yet making any money due to the small number of devices in the market.

While some may suggest that the Wii gaming console is missing from this list, so far the Wii doesn’t really offer up any content. Whether or not set-top boxes should be included in these numbers is debatable. It’s my belief that the cable companies are the ones that should be winning in the market when it comes to delivering Internet-based content to the TV or premium content with all-you-can-eat models. But so far, I don’t see the cable companies doing a very good job at this.

On the surface, some of these numbers look really big. But once you break down how many of these devices are being used via a broadband connection and how many consumers have more than one of these devices in their living room, the actual number of individual consumers content owners are reaching via these devices is still very, very small.

Dan Rayburn is EVP of StreamingMedia.com, has his own blog at BusinessofVideo.com and is a principal analyst with Frost & Sullivan.

That from the EVP of a site whose goal (http://www.streamingmedia.com/whatisstreaming.asp) is "to foster the adoption of streaming media technology and applications."

Grubert

05-29-09, 04:01 AM

And more on topic...

Toshiba Sells $3 Billion of Stock After Record Loss (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiYYGUOMphz4&refer=home)

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Toshiba Corp., needing funds for investment after a record annual loss, raised 289.7 billion yen ($3.04 billion) in Japan’s biggest stock offering by a non- financial company in eight years.

The country’s biggest chipmaker sold 870 million shares at 333 yen apiece, Tokyo-based Toshiba said today. The stock, offered at 3.2 percent less than its closing price today, was sold at the high end of a range indicated last week.

“Investors’ risk appetite is recovering,” Mamoru Shimode, chief equity strategist at Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, said by telephone. Technology companies “haven’t been received positively by investors, but some started to see them as under- valued,” he said.

Toshiba has lost 60 percent of its value in the past year, almost twice the decline in Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average. About 500 companies worldwide have raised $124 billion selling stock in 2009, 27 percent fewer issuers and 22 percent less in value than in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The proceeds from the offering will help Toshiba invest in factories to compete against Samsung Electronics Co. in making chips that store data in cameras and mobile phones after last year’s net loss more than tripled the Japanese company’s ratio of debt to equity.

The sale, the first for Toshiba since 1981, may be increased to as much as 1 billion shares with enough demand, the company said today in a statement to the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Toshiba said May 8 it planned to sell as much as 313.1 billion yen of stock and 180 billion yen of 60-year subordinated debt.

Biggest Since DoCoMo

It’s the biggest offering of new stock in Japan by a non- financial issuer since 2001, when NTT DoCoMo Inc., the mobile- phone operator that was the country’s largest company by market value at the time, raised 950.4 billion yen.

Toshiba Chief Executive Officer Atsutoshi Nishida, 65, plans to return the maker of semiconductors and nuclear reactors to an operating profit this year as production cuts by chipmakers worldwide prompt a rebound in prices.

The industry is recovering after manufacturers curbed output to boost prices of NAND flash memory, which stores songs and data in portable musical players, handsets and digital cameras.

[Note that consumer electronics are not mentioned once.]

Grubert

05-29-09, 04:44 AM

I'd be interested to see what are those quite a few BD releases that sell 20% of DVD version?

Body of Lies
Let the Right One In
Max Payne
My Bloody Valentine 3D
Quantum of Solace
RockNRolla
Taken
Tales of the Black Freighter
The Dark Knight
The Day the Earth Stood Still
Valkyrie
Watchmen Motion Comic

The first title to sell 20% or more of total packaged media sales on BD in its first week was The Dark Knight.

It's an ocassional flick that appeals to a specific demographic. It's far from a trend for all releases.

The market share for other genres is also increasing.

Case in point: drama movies. This time last year, dramas never got even 10% Blu-ray market share in their first week. The first drama to get 10% was The Express, released January 20, 2009.

Recently, several dramas have done 10% or more:

The Wrestler (19%)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (14%)
Slumdog Millionaire (13%)
Australia (12%)
Frost/Nixon (12%)
Notorious (12%)
Milk (10%)

In other words, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is doing better this year than Rambo did last year. :D And Milk did better than National Treasure 2. :D :D

Of course, other drama titles didn't do so well (Rachel Getting Married 5%, Last Chance Harvey 4%).

The genre that still does worst is comedy/family, although some of them did 10% or more (Yes Man, Zack and Miri, Role Models).

PSound

05-29-09, 05:16 AM

This just came up:

The Streaming Content Is There, But Not Enough People Are Watching It — Yet (http://gigaom.com/2009/05/29/the-streaming-content-is-there-but-not-enough-people-are-watching-it-yet/)

That from the EVP of a site whose goal (http://www.streamingmedia.com/whatisstreaming.asp) is "to foster the adoption of streaming media technology and applications."

Some good info on streaming hardware and growth:

Worldwide shipments of consumer-electronics devices capable of supporting Internet video are projected to rise by nearly a factor of five from 2009 to 2013, according to research firm iSuppli.

The firm forecast that 376.5 million devices supporting Internet video will be shipped annually by 2013, up from 80.5 million in 2008. The devices include televisions, set-top boxes, Blu-ray DVD players, videogame consoles and dedicated video platforms.

"The expansion of broadband Internet access from home computers to other devices including [set-top boxes] has opened up a world of new possibilities for supporting Internet video via streaming and downloads," said iSuppli analyst Sheri Greenspan in a statement. "More importantly, the public is demanding this type of content on a wider variety of platforms. However, they want this content to be easily available, and they want it to be of the same video quality as the programming on their living room televisions."

http://www.multichannel.com/article/277225-Internet_TVs_Other_Video_Devices_To_More_Than_Quadruple_By_2 013.php

NOTE: Just providing competing data since someone decided to put an article that is focused SOLELY on the topic of streaming/download in this section.

Bozster

05-29-09, 05:23 AM

This just came up:

The Streaming Content Is There, But Not Enough People Are Watching It — Yet (http://gigaom.com/2009/05/29/the-streaming-content-is-there-but-not-enough-people-are-watching-it-yet/)

That from the EVP of a site whose goal (http://www.streamingmedia.com/whatisstreaming.asp) is "to foster the adoption of streaming media technology and applications."

You see and he didn't even consider PCs and other ways of utilizing digital downloads. The point is that online content delivery is much more accessible from variety of devices. So it will never be clear cut number as with Blu-ray players.

IMO the reason why the online content delivery is not still growing at a rapid rate is because there's still an obsticle coming from studios by limiting a lot of content and the connection speeds are still not up to part to provide smooth experience. Something that will change most definitely within next 5 years.

The market share will continue increasing. Let's not forget, Blu-ray has been on the market longer. Let's talk about online content delivery in 2010/2011 which will be a much better comparison. As I noted, the difference between online content delivery and blu-ray is that online delivery has a much more potential to grow faster because for many people already posses hardware in one way or the other, it's all about the service. Blu-ray is a completely different model. You have to buy everything and people need to buy another device (Blu-ray standalone) in order to get Blu-ray. I'm not sure if you see what I"m saying.

Once, the service and cable connection gets to a level where experince is smoother you might see an adoption rate that is through the roof, because PCs, Xbox 360s and other devices (even existing Blu-ray players) will be capable of getting some kind of online content. Hardware is less important with this approach.

With this being said, I think I can objectively conclude what stands behind the reasoning of Toshiba and not supporting Blu-ray. They would rather have the new wave and be the first and big supplier of devices or media (flash, ssds, sd cards etc) while still making a chunk out of DVD then investing in Blu-ray which will most likely cost them money.

PSound

05-29-09, 05:24 AM

This just came up:

The Streaming Content Is There, But Not Enough People Are Watching It — Yet (http://gigaom.com/2009/05/29/the-streaming-content-is-there-but-not-enough-people-are-watching-it-yet/)

BTW... I find these two statements to be in direct contradiction:

But despite all these new offerings, that content still only reaches a few million customers, a number largely unchanged from this time last year.

Xbox/Netflix: As of February, 1 million Xbox LIVE Gold members had downloaded and activated the application for streaming Netflix movies to the Xbox 360 console. Meanwhile, users had watched more than 1.5 billion minutes of movies and TV episodes from the Netflix Watch Instantly library.

If the market is only "a few million", and over 1 million people added streaming via Netfllix/XBox in a fiscal quarter... how can that be an "largely unchanged" number? Assuming "a few million" is under 10 million, you are talking about 10% growth in one quarter from ONE source of streaming/downloading. That does not include the massive growth reported from sites like Hulu and TV.com in the first few months of this year.

It would be great if there was either a consensus that the streaming/downloading market IS a HDTV Software Media market, or to move this converstation to the Digital Downloads sub-forum.

Bozster

05-29-09, 05:24 AM

Body of Lies
Let the Right One In
Max Payne
My Bloody Valentine 3D
Quantum of Solace
RockNRolla
Taken
Tales of the Black Freighter
The Dark Knight
The Day the Earth Stood Still
Valkyrie
Watchmen Motion Comic

The first title to sell 20% or more of total packaged media sales on BD in its first week was The Dark Knight.

The market share for other genres is also increasing.

Case in point: drama movies. This time last year, dramas never got even 10% Blu-ray market share in their first week. The first drama to get 10% was The Express, released January 20, 2009.

Recently, several dramas have done 10% or more:

The Wrestler (19%)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (14%)
Slumdog Millionaire (13%)
Australia (12%)
Frost/Nixon (12%)
Notorious (12%)
Milk (10%)

In other words, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is doing better this year than Rambo did last year. :D And Milk did better than National Treasure 2. :D :D

Of course, other drama titles didn't do so well (Rachel Getting Married 5%, Last Chance Harvey 4%).

The genre that still does worst is comedy/family, although some of them did 10% or more (Yes Man, Zack and Miri, Role Models).

As for your comparison on the movies, what you you noted is still such a small number of movies that it's hardly a huge chunk in the market. Big hits/blockbusters, oscar winning movies will sell well and they are mostly action based. I was with a friend at Walmart yesterday and we had a chuckle when we saw Terminator 1 Blu-ray for $25 and on the other side Extreme Edition T1 on DVD was $7.90.

On the scheme of things, Blu-ray is still a drop in the sea compared to the overall DVD market and will be most likely like that for a forseeable future. I have no doubts it will grow, but how much, that's the real question and if growth is directly connected to lowering prices to DVD levels then I don't see an incentive for studios to continue pushing furiously Blu-ray when they can make a lot more money with online content delivery. CEs are a different story, they might be introducing hardware because they can still charge a premium (to an extent) on it, but for how long that's another question too. To be honest I don't see a lot of those chinese BD players anymore and I don't really see who's gonna sell Blu-ray player for $99 come this Christmas when they are still around $250. Maybe clearance on older models but I guess we'll have to wait and see. I would love to snap 2 more Blu-ray players at $100 each but I doubt it.

It's boils down to money and I think that studios will continue pursing more and more both ways and it's in their interest (as they are already seeing) to push more and more content through online channels.

There's a reason why Disney is trying to think of a way for people to upgrade to Blu-ray. They are not getting results as they want so they have to come up with some incentives as people are simply not buying.

If market is already saturated with equipment and software for Blu-ray (in a way) what chance or reason has Toshiba to join it.

IMO, zip, nada! ;)

For all these reasons I don't see Toshiba being in panic for not joining Blu-ray. Quite the contrary.

Grubert

05-29-09, 05:57 AM

As for your comparison on the movies, what you you noted is still such a small number of movies that it's hardly a huge chunk in the market. Big hits/blockbusters, oscar winning movies will sell well and they are mostly action based. I was with a friend at Walmart yesterday and we had a chuckle when we saw Terminator 1 Blu-ray for $25 and on the other side Extreme Edition T1 on DVD was $7.90.

First, catalog sales on DVD are residual. They're not selling a lot, not even at $7.90.

Second, you wouldn't chuckle so much if you shopped around. The Terminator Blu-ray is $12.99 at Best Buy. (T2 Skynet edition is $14.99).

On the scheme of things, Blu-ray is still a drop in the sea compared to the overall DVD market and will be most likely like that for a forseeable future.

Last week Blu-ray did 10.5% revenue of total disc sales. For any finance guy, that's not "a drop in the sea".

I have no doubts it will grow, but how much, that's the real question and if growth is directly connected to lowering prices to DVD levels then I don't see an incentive for studios to continue pushing furiously Blu-ray when they can make a lot more money with online content delivery.

The last news is that there's not really a lot more money with online content delivery. Not now, at any rate.

CEs are a different story, they might be introducing hardware because they can still charge a premium (to an extent) on it, but for how long that's another question too. To be honest I don't see a lot of those chinese BD players anymore and I don't really see who's gonna sell Blu-ray player for $99 come this Christmas when they are still around $250. Maybe clearance on older models but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Right now you can get a Samsung BD-P1600 (new model) for under $200, with four free movies.

Historically I have noticed that those who most complain about pricing are the most oblivious to good deals.

If market is already saturated with equipment and software for Blu-ray (in a way) what chance or reason has Toshiba to join it.

IMO, zip, nada! ;)

Well, market is saturated with LCD TVs and laptops, and Toshiba continues to make them. Why?

MovieSwede

05-29-09, 06:04 AM

Well, market is saturated with LCD TVs and laptops, and Toshiba continues to make them. Why?

I would guess profits are better with flatscreens. But I believe that some flatscreen manufacturers are pulling out from that area now.

But how much money could toshiba make on selling BD standalones?

Grubert

05-29-09, 06:05 AM

It would be great if there was either a consensus that the streaming/downloading market IS a HDTV Software Media market, or to move this converstation to the Digital Downloads sub-forum.

Good idea, thanks for your suggestion.

I just opened a thread there:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=16547108#post16547108

And BTW, the streaming/downloading market is by and large SDTV anyway.

Grubert

05-29-09, 06:13 AM

NOTE: Just providing competing data since someone decided to put an article that is focused SOLELY on the topic of streaming/download in this section.

False.

I was just responding to Bozster who brought up streaming/downloading (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=16545192&postcount=69). Allow me to quote him again:

We just had maybe a year of real digital downloads/subscription services. And they are growing at a rapid rate because people like them and convenience. The fact that major CE Blu-ray manufacturers are integrating Netflix just shows you where it's going.

Bozster

05-29-09, 06:23 AM

Right now you can get a Samsung BD-P1600 (new model) for under $200, with four free movies.

Where? Everywhere I looked it's $249. I don't really buy a lot of electronics stuff online through stores (because it's a lot of hassle to return if it doesn't work or whatever - most people I know don't buy electronics online just for that reason too) so I'm not keeping a track of where and when I can use coupons or special sales to get a player for $200. Maybe some people do, but I'm pretty sure people like me are in majority.

Every single B&M store I went to sells them for $250 and they won't budge the price.

Where is $200 with 4 free movies? Amazon? EDIT: Well it's certainly not amazon because there it's $250 as wel: http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-BD-P1600-1080p-Blu-Ray-Player/dp/B001TK3D4A/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1243592666&sr=1-1

And these are all temporary sales anyways. If you are lucky to stumble upon. Same with Blu-ray movies. I was at Walmart where I saw these prices, so it's quite relevant as it's one of the major retailers. Fry's is no better.

The point is at long as at B&M stores it costs what it costs that's the real price. Online sales and deals are not a real measure of price.

And again, Samsung probably has a better deal within BDA, I can't even imagine Toshiba getting into BD production when they have to pay through the nose and will probably lose money.

First, catalog sales on DVD are residual. They're not selling a lot, not even at $7.90.

Second, you wouldn't chuckle so much if you shopped around. The Terminator Blu-ray is $12.99 at Best Buy. (T2 Skynet edition is $14.99).

Neither does Blu-ray version so? The bottom line is that at a major retailer DVD version is $8, BD is $25.

Bozster

05-29-09, 06:26 AM

False.

I was just responding to Bozster who brought up streaming/downloading (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=16545192&postcount=69). Allow me to quote him again:

I brought it up in context that Toshiba doesn't have incentive to make Blu-ray when they have a whole new market opening up where they can lead and still harvest a lot of money from DVD licensing, so quoting a sentence without everything else is a really interesting way to put it.

Good idea, thanks for your suggestion.

And BTW, the streaming/downloading market is by and large SDTV anyway.

To be perfectly honest I don't remember when I watched something via online that wasn't HD. Maybe Youtube or something but even those are higher resolution then SD with their HD option.

Grubert

05-29-09, 06:41 AM

Where? Everywhere I looked it's $249. I don't really buy a lot of electronics stuff online through stores (because it's a lot of hassle to return if it doesn't work or whatever - most people I know don't buy electronics online just for that reason too) so I'm not keeping a track of where and when I can use coupons or special sales to get a player for $200. Maybe some people do, but I'm pretty sure people like me are in majority.

Every single B&M store I went to sells them for $250 and they won't budge the price.

Where is $200 with 4 free movies? Amazon? EDIT: Well it's certainly not amazon because there it's $250 as wel: http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-BD-P1600-1080p-Blu-Ray-Player/dp/B001TK3D4A/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1243592666&sr=1-1

Buy it with 4 movies and get $125 off. (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/redirect?link_code=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325&path=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fgp%2Ffeature.html%2Fref%3 Damb_link_84400351_4%3Fie%3DUTF8%26docId%3D1000376801%26pf_r d_m%3DATVPDKIKX0DER%26pf_rd_s%3Dhero-quick-promo%26pf_rd_r%3D1C203ERHMEDF1RJ43YAT%26pf_rd_t%3D201%26pf_ rd_p%3D478065931%26pf_rd_i%3DB001TK3D4A)

And these are all temporary sales anyways. If you are lucky to stumble upon. Same with Blu-ray movies. I was at Walmart where I saw these prices, so it's quite relevant as it's one of the major retailers. Fry's is no better.

Funny that someone who accesses content online refuses to consider online disc sales.

The point is at long as at B&M stores it costs what it costs that's the real price. Online sales and deals are not a real measure of price.

Walmart is not the biggest Blu-ray retailer. Best Buy is.

And again, Samsung probably has a better deal within BDA, I can't even imagine Toshiba getting into BD production when they have to pay through the nose and will probably lose money.

That's 100% conjecture on top of conjecture.