http://www.engadgethd.com/2009/06/25/harris-poll-concerning-blu-ray-and-hd-dvd-penetration-is-way-off/

Harris Poll concerning Blu-ray and HD DVD penetration is way off

by Ben Drawbaugh, posted Jun 25th 2009 at 8:09PM

We had a feeling something was up with the results of the recent Harris Poll and it looks like we had good reason. No one is trying to say that the folks that conducted the poll had a Red agenda or anything, it is just like Adams research puts it when talking about consumer polls in general, "you can't trust the average survey respondent to correctly identify the high-tech devices in their homes." You can say that again. The funny thing is that the results of the poll even look screwy when compared to the HD DVD Promotion group's numbers which reported that even after a few months following the format war, only 1 million stand-alone HD DVD players were sold. This is nowhere near the 10 million that it would take to make up 9 percent of the 111 million US households the poll reports. And in case you care, analysts project -- you know, the ones actually based on retail sales instead of a consumer survey -- that 14.8 percent of US households will have some way to play a Blu-ray Disc by the end of 2009, which is almost double what it was at the end of 2008

BDA, Adams Dispute Harris Survey on Blu-ray


By Chris Tribbey | Posted: 25 Jun 2009
ctribbey@questex.com

The Blu-ray Disc Association is challenging the accuracy of a June 18 Harris Poll, which says that as of April, more Americans owned an HD DVD player (11%) than a Blu-ray Disc player (7%).

The BDA on June 25 said the Harris survey doesn’t mesh with actual shipping and sales numbers for Blu-ray, pointing to Adams Media Research data that puts the numbers closer to nearly 8% for Blu-ray and less than 1% for HD DVD. Calling the Harris data “grossly inaccurate,” the news release states that by the end of 2009, Blu-ray players will be in nearly 15% of American TV homes.

Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research, blamed the survey findings on consumers’ inability to identify what exactly is next to their TVs.

"Some people believe a DVD player on an HDTV is high-def. There's just so much confusion out there," Adams said. "Everybody makes mistakes" he said of the Harris survey "but we have models that show those numbers just can't be true."


“This finding suggesting that HD DVD player penetration grew from 6% to 9% in the period since the Blu-ray victory in the format war simply can't be right,” he said. “Our research on shipments and retail sales of players suggests that some 340,000 homes had an HD DVD player by the end of 2008 vs. 3.1 million homes with a dedicated Blu-ray player, and 9 million homes with either a dedicated player, a PlayStation 3 or both.”

Adams’ research has dedicated Blu-ray players in 7.2 million homes by the end of 2009, and, with the PS3 included, that number jumps to more than 17 million.

“Meanwhile, HD DVD machines are long gone from store shelves and household penetration is shrinking dramatically,” Adams said. “By way of comparison to what had been the most successful format launch in consumer electronics history, at the same point in DVD’s lifespan, four years in, at the end of 2000, DVD-enabled homes, set-tops or game machines, numbered 13.7 million.”

The BDA also noted that the HD DVD Promotions Group, just 50 days before the HD DVD format went under, announced set-top sales of fewer than 1 million units.

A representative from Harris were not available for comment at press time. However, Milton Ellis, VP and senior consultant for media for Harris Interactive Technology, said findings show that Blu-ray is facing stiff competition from Internet and broadcast TV.

“In the near future, access to high-definition movies may be a download or streaming delivery of one’s favorite movies to a home media server,” he said. “That eliminates the need for a Blu-ray player and Blu-ray Disc.”
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu-ray-disc/bda-adams-dispute-harris-survey-blu-ray-16189

Of course most intelligent people knew this a few days ago.

Makes sense to dispute the core issue at this time and in such a strong manner. They sidestepped the issue that consumer education is part of their mission ;) The Harris reaction sounds a bit defensive and petty though, and if he was the approval authority for release of the poll it seems that his response seems a bit more involved and emotional than a pollster should be.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/tks-take/harris-interactive-survey-gets-slammed

Harris Interactive Survey Gets Slammed

By Thomas K. Arnold | Posted: 25 Jun 2009
tarnold@questex.com,

I thought I would pass on an email I just received from Corporate Advocates about a recent survey on high-definition packaged media. It reads as follows:

As you may have seen, there has been some recent reporting on the results of a Harris Interactive survey that arrived at some highly questionable findings on the number of Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD players currently in US households. By way of background, the recent Harris Interactive poll asked consumers whether they owned an HD DVD player, a Blu-ray Disc player, a PS3, etc. The survey has garnered some media attention despite the fact that, according to analyst groups that regularly track Blu-ray Disc hardware sales (as well as HD DVD sales before the format was pulled from the market), the survey results don't square with the actual shipping and sales numbers.

Given the grossly inaccurate results with respect to HD DVD sales (many times greater than those previously reported by the HD DVD group itself), and given that the sales-based numbers and the dramatic increase in Blu-ray Disc hardware and software sales clearly indicate that the format has in fact reached critical mass (surpassing even DVD penetration at the same point in DVD's lifespan), we thought it important to take a moment to provide you with actual data based on manufacturers' shipments and retail sales.

The 2008 sales data and the latest 2009 projections from Adams Media Research are as follows:
As of December 31, 2008, 2.7% of US TV homes had a Blu-ray Disc set top player, and by the end of 2009 that number will have grown to 6.2% of US TV homes (6.1% and 11.0%, respectively, of HDTV homes)
As of December 31, 2008, 5.6% of US TV homes had a PS3, and by the end of 2009 that number will have grown to 10.0% of US homes (12.5% and 17.6%, respectively, of HDTV homes).
As of December 31, 2008 7.8% of US TV homes had either a Blu-ray Disc set top player, a PS3 or both, and by the end of 2009 that number will have grown to 14.8% of US TV homes (17.5% and 26%, respectively, of HDTV homes).
As of December 31, 2008 0.3% of US TV homes had an HD DVD set top player, and by the end of 2009, that number will have shrunk to 0.2% of US homes (0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, of HDTV homes).

The estimates reported by Adams Media Research are based on its research into actual manufacturer shipments to retail and actual retail sales to consumers, and are significantly different than the survey-based numbers reported by Harris. In fact, the Harris numbers don't even square with the numbers reported by the HD DVD Promotions Group toward the end of that format's lifespan. As of the end of 2007, some 50 days before the announcement that the HD DVD format would be discontinued, the HD DVD Promotions Group was reporting set top sales of less than 1 million units….nowhere near the 9% of households that Harris claims based on its survey results.

As for the discrepancy between the survey results and the actual data, Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research notes:
"The media industry has long known you can't trust the average survey respondent to correctly identify the high-tech devices in their homes; this finding suggesting that HD DVD player penetration grew from 6% to 9% in the period since the Blu-ray victory in the format war simply can't be right. Our research on shipments and retail sales of players suggests that some 340,000 homes had an HD-DVD player by the end of 2008 v. 3.1 million homes with a dedicated Blu-ray player, and 9 million homes with either a dedicated player, a PS3 or both. So far, despite the recession, sales this year put dedicated Blu-ray players on track to be in 7.2 million homes by year's end, with the number of homes having a BD-Player, a PS3, or both growing to 17.1 million. Meanwhile, HD DVD machines are long gone from store shelves and household penetration is shrinking dramatically. By way of comparison to what had been the most successful format launch in consumer electronics history, at the same point in DVD’s lifespan (four years in, at the end of 2000), DVD-enabled homes (set-tops or game machines) numbered 13.7 million”

Makes sense to dispute the core issue at this time and in such a strong manner. They sidestepped the issue that consumer education is part of their mission ;) The Harris reaction sounds a bit defensive and petty though, and if he was the approval authority for release of the poll it seems that his response seems a bit more involved and emotional than a pollster should be.

Funny. Someone ask the Milton Ellis guy why we should believe his new comment, when his company let a poll that was obviously critically flawed out of the door.

Way to sidestep the fact that your poll was jacked up there Mr. Ellis...

Funny. Someone ask the Milton Ellis guy why we should believe his new comment, when his company let a poll that was obviously critically flawed out of the door.

Way to sidestep the fact that your poll was jacked up there Mr. Ellis...

He was not the press contact for it, so he was the next guy reached. He may not know more about the issue in detail than what he knows of the summary and as a Internet guy of course his DNA will trend to the Internet being the solution eventually for everything. Heck I believe eventually network stuff will bring more movies in the home too. The questions are why how much and at what quality and what the near term balance with optical media would be.

Kinda obvious from his statement on how the poll could have got past him, its original findings played right into his biases so he was blind to its issues.

Not a good response from Harris Interactive. Makes it look like they play favorites and have biases. Not good for them at all.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu-ray-disc/bda-adams-dispute-harris-survey-blu-ray-16189

Of course most intelligent people knew this a few days ago.

by the end of 2008 vs. 3.1 million homes with a dedicated Blu-ray player,

Adams’ research has dedicated Blu-ray players in 7.2 million homes by the end of 2009

What happened to the 6 million dedicated BD players sold in 2009 forecast? That's 4.1 million.

6M Blu-ray Players May Be No Sure Thing - 2/23/2009 - TWICE

http://www.highdefforum.com/high-definition-media/90615-6m-blu-ray-players-may-no-sure-thing.html

What happened to the 6 million dedicated BD players sold in 2009 forecast? That's 4.1 million.

6M Blu-ray Players May Be No Sure Thing - 2/23/2009 - TWICE

http://www.highdefforum.com/high-definition-media/90615-6m-blu-ray-players-may-no-sure-thing.html

US vs. worldwide?

I have no clue - the data gets jumbled around so much because there are multiple agencies like Adams reporting data.

ask Adams.

US vs. worldwide?

I have no clue - the data gets jumbled around so much because there are multiple agencies like Adams reporting data.

ask Adams.

Nope.

Similar to the CEA, market research firm FutureSource Consulting is predicting U.S. stand-alone Blu-ray Disc player sales at 6 million in 2009, up from 2.5 million in 2008.

What happened to the 6 million dedicated BD players sold in 2009 forecast? That's 4.1 million.

Maybe the economy is doing so well that people who were going to buy blu-ray players are buying new cars from GM/Ford instead?

Hey look, there goes a red herring. Fire up the grill.

Brandon

Here is Tom Adams forecast for 2008 which he made in June of 2008 and how it turned out:

The executives hosted by The Digital Entertainment Group, a consortium of movie studios and electronics manufacturers, forecast that 10.5 million households would be able to play Blu-ray videos by the end of the year — with about 2.5 million standalone players and 8 million PlayStation 3 game consoles.

That estimate is much lower than the 14.4 million households that Adams Media Research said in June would be playing Blu-rays by the end of the year. But if it is to come true, about 1 million more standalone players and 2.3 million more PS3s must be sold through the holidays.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/133758/Can-Blu-ray-save-Christmas-for-Hollywood

The actual numbers were very close to DEG's number - 10.5M.

Maybe he decided to be conservative this year after last years missing the mark so bad.

I thought the Harris Poll was wrong about the number of HD DVD players but being wrong by 1000% is somewhat impressive. Than again they asked a question about HD DVD players without bothering to give an explanation. They should have explained what a HD DVD player was and given an example of the HD DVD logo.

You are criticizing a projection made mid 2008? :rolleyes:

I read that the other day and knew right away it was BS.

Help me understand, it is generally recognized that Blu-ray offers the best picture and sound that is available to the consumer. So why is it there are many here that will post anti Blu-ray comments at the slightest hint of anything negative Blu-ray?

Some even admit they do not own a BD player. The war is over and even Toshiba may join the BDA. Please follow the lead of some very enthusiastic HD DVD supporters that realized the war was over, switched sides and moved on.

You are criticizing a projection made mid 2008? :rolleyes:

Guy is supposed to be an expert. He made his forecast in JUNE - and blew it by 4 million.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Help me understand, it is generally recognized that Blu-ray offers the best picture and sound that is available to the consumer. So why is it there are many here that will post anti Blu-ray comments at the slightest hint of anything negative Blu-ray?

Some even admit they do not own a BD player. The war is over and even Toshiba may join the BDA. Please follow the lead of some very enthusiastic HD DVD supporters that realized the war was over, switched sides and moved on.

What's the matter? You can't handle a different opinion then your own?

I refuse to "eat up" all the BS and spin that goes along with the BD format. I thought this was AVScience - Science - you know - when you examine things under a microscope.

It has to be a branding issue. J6P bought a Bluray player / PS3 that takes DVDs and outputs HD so on the poll he says he has an "HD" DVD player.

As I stated in my original post in the news section (before it was edited) and in the subsequent thread, the Harris Poll shows two distinct things.

The first is that some people with upscaling DVDs obviously checked that they had HD DVD. That strongly suggests that Blu-ray marketing is doing a poor job.

The second thing that was indicated is that less people now plan to buy a Blu-ray player then last year. It is impossible to know the cause, but intention to buy seems to be waning.

Sales may still go up simply as people replace aging/broken DVD players, as long as the pricing gets down to attract the market of people looking to replace their DVD players.

As I stated in my original post in the news section (before it was edited) and in the subsequent thread, the Harris Poll shows two distinct things.

The first is that some people with upscaling DVDs obviously checked that they had HD DVD. That strongly suggests that Blu-ray marketing is doing a poor job.

Or that the question wasn't clear enough. Maybe they didn't write a disclaimer saying that upconverter aren't HD-DVD.

The second thing that was indicated is that less people now plan to buy a Blu-ray player then last year. It is impossible to know the cause, but intention to buy seems to be waning.

Sales may still go up simply as people replace aging/broken DVD players, as long as the pricing gets down to attract the market of people looking to replace their DVD players.

That is the normal progression anyway. People tends to wait to replace their player when those break. Lots of people waited until their VHS died before buying into DVD.

Bluray doesn't offer enough of a PQ improvement over DVD to justify the high cost for most people. Think how many DVD/VCR combos are in use running through compsite video or RF3. People moved from VHS to DVD for convince.

Bluray doesn't offer enough of a PQ improvement over DVD to justify the high cost for most people. Think how many DVD/VCR combos are in use running through compsite video or RF3. People moved from VHS to DVD for convince.

Yea Blu-ray doesn't have enough PQ increase over DVD if your using it with a SDTV!!
Anyone with an HDTV & a nice home theater setup will tell you the increase in picture & audio quality is a big jump over DVD.

People didn't change from VHS to DVD for CONVENIENCE they changed because the picture & audio quality was better (I know that's why I changed).
But if you believe that it was for CONVENIENCE that would explain why you don't see the improvement in Blu-ray.

People didn't change from VHS to DVD for CONVENIENCE they changed because the picture & audio quality was better (I know that's why I changed).
But if you believe that it was for CONVENIENCE that would explain why you don't see the improvement in Blu-ray.

Yes I also changed to DVD because of the PQ. But the sad truth is that most people isnt like me (thats maybe a good truth?).

Alot changed to DVD because they liked the disc format over the tape format.

Some changed because others had changed.

And last some changed because they had to change.

BD will attract people like me because of the PQ upgrade. The rest will take alot more work.

The plus side for BD compared to DVD is that every player can play DVD(verses few DVD could play VHS). So you can still watch your old disc on the same player.

Or that the question wasn't clear enough. Maybe they didn't write a disclaimer saying that upconverter aren't HD-DVD.



That is the normal progression anyway. People tends to wait to replace their player when those break. Lots of people waited until their VHS died before buying into DVD.

The poll did not even have a check off button for upconverting DVD players, so its no wonder people got confused.

It really did not get any play in mass media and the sites it did happen on are fairly low reach or it was in a small corner of them. Its not format war time where every little issue had some worth.

But I think it was very good professional PR to address it exactly as they did.

Only off thing I see is the bizarre defense of it by the anecdotal comments from the Harris VP. Thats fairly stupid PR on the part of Harris Interactive now.

Or that the question wasn't clear enough. Maybe they didn't write a disclaimer saying that upconverter aren't HD-DVD.

The question asked if they had an "HD DVD player". That is clear to an informed consumer.

The consumers are not well informed. That is a failing of those marketing Blu-ray.

What's the matter? You can't handle a different opinion then your own?Sure can. But why do you care what Blu-ray does or does not do? You have made it clear you are not buying.

I refuse to "eat up" all the BS and spin that goes along with the BD format.:confused: But you "ate up" all the BS and spin that went along with the HD DVD format.

I thought this was AVScience - Science - you know - when you examine things under a microscope.Science is the key word, here is a link to some of my latest science, click here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=16683408#post16683408). More post by me follows that post. Where is your science?

For even more science from me click the Red & Green in my signature line!!

Considering I know of only 1 person ( Friend) and my nephew ( PS3 ) who have a BD player after almost 3 years in, I think the poll is not far off.

Sure can. But why do you care what Blu-ray does or does not do? You have made it clear you are not buying.

That is not a true statement. I was all set to buy the Vizio BD player until I learned that what they said at CES didn't jive with the actual player for sale - ie; no analog outputs

:confused: But you "ate up" all the BS and spin that went along with the HD DVD format.

Yes - I did - HD DVD had some very good points going for it especially the facts of no profiles, region free and HD DVD/DVD combo's

Science is the key word, here is a link to some of my latest science, click here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=16683408#post16683408). More post by me follows that post. Where is your science?

For even more science from me click the Red & Green in my signature line!!

Industry people make statements/predictions/forecasts/whatevers about BD's performance and growth.

I like to tear those apart to see what is factual and what is BS and spin. I think that qualifies as "science." Maybe you don't. I don't think you do.

That is not a true statement. I was all set to buy the Vizio BD player until I learned that what they said at CES didn't jive with the actual player for sale - ie; no analog outputsThere are many low cost, fully featured players available. The fact remains your are not a BD owner and you are a prolific anti Blu-ray poster. Just the facts. Did you not state on another BBS that you would do everything you could against Blu-ray?


Yes - I did - HD DVD had some very good points going for it especially the facts of no profiles, region free and HD DVD/DVD combo'sBD has its strong points as well.


Industry people make statements/predictions/forecasts/whatevers about BD's performance and growth.

I like to tear those apart to see what is factual and what is BS and spin. I think that qualifies as "science." Maybe you don't. I don't think you do.Adams Media Research that you refer to was a prediction, the Harris Poll was supposed to represent the current state of affairs. The prediction was off, that is understandable for anyone that knows even a little about the US and world economy. The Harris Poll was a screw-up by any measure. The fact that people try to defend the Harris Poll does not speak well for them, IMHO.

In the end it will not matter, this thread is destined to be locked just like the others.

None of the BDA spin control refutes the central issue in that poll; one that most news sites picked up on.

Only 7% of consumers are likely to purchase a blu-ray player in the next year. Down from 9% last year. That is a 20% drop from an already bad number.

93% of consumers are not likely to buy a blu-ray player in the next year. That is a statistic that no amount of spin can change.

And it is likely the reason that AACS founders finally issued the specs for Managed Copy. Desperate times call for desperate measures.