Based on the thread post at http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=16795530#post16795530 which is based off a Forbes article at http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/08/television-internet-magazines-business-media-media.html?feed=rss_business_media, I am opening this up for debate.

What networks do you guys see possibly going dark this year or next? To quote the article:

From 1976 to 2000, a boom in consumer spending touched off an explosive demand for new advertising inventory. That produced an overwhelming supply, "…making the 1980s the heyday of media fortunes." Cable programmers rolled out new shows and channels; magazines expanded their page counts. Later, the ad boom helped build the Web itself. "Now we have a nearly unlimited supply of potential advertising inventory," says the report.

I would think that there won't be enough advertising $$$ to support all this inventory. NO upfront deals have been made for cable nor broadcast. The best option may be to merge some cable nets together or simply allow some to go dark. Or is the dual income stream going to mean this is a moot point. What say you?

What networks do you guys see possibly going dark this year or next?

None.

There may be some consolidation, but I'd expect to see changes as oppose to channels simply going dead.

msnbc.

yeah MSNBC

msnbc.

Ditto this. MSNBC doesn't really fit in the world of cable news. It's all CNN (and it's family) or Fox News (and it's family).

I'm also thinking one of the women's networks will shut down. Lifetime is still the premiere destination, and Bravo caters to women too. I don't think there is room for both WE and Oxygen, for example.

None.

There may be some consolidation, but I'd expect to see changes as oppose to channels simply going dead.

I do think there will be consolidation as the cable universe can't sustain all of them. I think the drying up of ad dollars is part of the reason so many are trying so hard to become general cable networks.

The next question is, how would this affect sub fees? Could it be a chance for fees to go down. No, I don't think the subscriber bill will go down (they are never giving that back), but perhaps hold prices where they are.

msnbc.

yeah MSNBC

You're joking, right? They just launched a high definition channel and several new daytime programs two weeks ago. Plus they have decent ratings on weekend crime story/prison documentaries.

No way in hell NBC Universal would cripple themselves in the news department. Look how many cable nets they own. Something like Sleuth/Chiller or Oxygen(just one of many women's channels) or Bravo(a what the hell channel) are more likely.

NBC not too long ago completely rebranded their news as MSNBC. I would doubt that highly. Besides, they have their own devout following, the fact that relatively few of us show up on AVS doesn't mean you should have tunnel vision. :)

More realistically than a basic cable channel distributed on essentially every cable system in America, I'd guess some of the more esoteric and lightly distributed digital channels, like Fuel TV, Style, Tru, etc; or second channels of other more high profile channels that generally have subpar content. Ala Lifetime Movies, or one of the Discoveries (Investigation, I'd imagine).

They are already rather dark when you consider that they mostly show reruns. How much darker could they get?

You're joking, right? They just launched a high definition channel and several new daytime programs two weeks ago. Plus they have decent ratings on weekend crime story/prison documentaries.
Not to mention they just went HD......

They need to pull the plug on TV Land right now. That station is a former shell of itself. They should be embarrased of the situation they are in now.

I think there will definitely be some local OTA stations going dark, but more likely we'll be seeing lower ads rates meaning you'll see your neighbor's garage sale advertised in between innings of a baseball game on your local RSN. :)

They're all going to stick around a lot longer if we, the consumer are forced to subsidize them. They don't need viewers to survive, just a contract with the cable and satellite companies for coverage and they have built in revenues, irregardless of whether they have viewers or not.

If anyone is going to shutter networks, it'll be Viacom. They have like 30 small, redundant cable networks that can't possibly be profitable. I'm thinking specifically of the army of MTV, VH1, CMT, and BET networks buried in the upper tiers of digital cable.

If anyone is going to shutter networks, it'll be Viacom. They have like 30 small, redundant cable networks that can't possibly be profitable. I'm thinking specifically of the army of MTV, VH1, CMT, and BET networks buried in the upper tiers of digital cable.

Let's see, there's: MTV Jams, MTV Hits, GAC, CMT, VH1 Classic. I'd expect the two MTV channels listed(that have very small cable carriage) and one of the country channels to go.

Also, I think at least one BROADCAST network will go. My top contenders:
1. My Network TV
2. ION Television
3. The CW
4. NBC
5. Religious
6. Subchannel only networks: This TV, RTN, weather.

Let's see, there's: MTV Jams, MTV Hits, GAC, CMT, VH1 Classic. I'd expect the two MTV channels listed(that have very small cable carriage) and one of the country channels to go.

There are many more than that, and I've left out Palladia and the fleet of Nickelodeon channels, of which there are six or seven as well.

MTV2
MTV Tr3́s
MTV Desi
MTV Hits
MTV Jams
mtvU
CMT Pure Country
VH1 Classic
VH1 Soul
BET J
BET Hip-Hop
BET Gospel
BET UK

NBC?

That would be like losing Pan Am, TWA, Eastern, Western, and Braniff.

Oh ... wait ... :eek:

Maybe we'll see the emergence of "dollar store" networks? IOW, doing 4-5 shows a week and repeating them rather than trying to carry such a heavy schedule. They'll be priced affordably too, sort of like the 99 cent iPhone apps. They need to cut the pay of the execs at the top and in a world where there is a glut of film school grads who needs Hollywood anymore?

5. Religious

There will always be people to shovel checks from their 401ks into those wastes of bandwidth, unfortunately.

Religious?

OH COME ON!!! That was edited. :rolleyes:

Maybe we'll see the emergence of "dollar store" networks? IOW, doing 4-5 shows a week and repeating them rather than trying to carry such a heavy schedule. They'll be priced affordably too, sort of like the 99 cent iPhone apps. They need to cut the pay of the execs at the top and in a world where there is a glut of film school grads who needs Hollywood anymore?

This has already begun. The .TV networks by Entertainment Studios that Verizon carries do this. Each channel has one program with a handful of episodes that run all day long. ES has also signed an agreement with Verizon's mobile platform to cross broadcast their content.

Dollar Store Network? The thought of that sends shivers of terror down my spine. The networks are already getting cheap with their shows.

They need to pull the plug on TV Land right now. That station is a former shell of itself. They should be embarrased of the situation they are in now.

Unfortunately, their ratings have never been higher.

Sad, but true.

Same for all commercial, all-the-time AMC.

If anyone is going to shutter networks, it'll be Viacom. They have like 30 small, redundant cable networks that can't possibly be profitable. I'm thinking specifically of the army of MTV, VH1, CMT, and BET networks buried in the upper tiers of digital cable.

I will share some knowledge I do have on those channels you mentioned (VH1 Classic, MTV Hits, et al). Costs them almost nothing to put up there on the sat as its videos they already have from labels sending them in for free or programs previously aired on MTV or VH1. They run no commercials and probably have one person monitoring all (or no person). The savings would have to be from not having to pay for that satellite transponder.

I'm more focusing on commercial channels. As for MSNBC, I can buy the argument of those feeling it may go dark. They admit they went HD to try to capture viewers. That was mentioned in an article http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/307007-MSNBC_Aims_to_Raise_Profile_with_HD.php


MSNBC Aims to Raise Profile with HD
Hi-def rollout part of bid to boost name recognition with viewers
By Marisa Guthrie -- Broadcasting & Cable, 6/28/2009 9:43:11 PM EDT

For MSNBC executives, the network's less-than-household-name status was apparent after the first one-on-one debate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in February 2008.

Moderated by Brian Williams and Tim Russert from Cleveland, the debate was viewed by 7.8 million people on MSNBC. It was the most-watched program of the night on television, and the top-rated program in MSNBC's 13-year history. But suddenly, MSNBC executives were fielding queries from first-time viewers.

"People did not know what MSNBC was," says network president Phil Griffin. "They were like, ‘MSNBC? Is that a business network, some newfangled Microsoft network?' Everybody knows CNN. Fox News Channel, they get it. ‘MSNBC? Huh?'"

So executives launched a consciousness- raising campaign that has included a new slogans--"The Place for Politics" and "Politics Comes First"--and strategic marketing initiatives. Those initiatives included a deal with Starbucks to carry MSNBC's coverage of the Jan. 20 presidential inauguration on the coffee retailer's in-store TVs. And the campaign culminates June 29 with the start of the network's HD rollout.

The network is the last among its all-news competitors to go HD, and for Griffin it's not just about visuals. "I love our anchors and our people being looked at in hi-def. But this is about being in the neighborhood. You get your regular core audience to tune in, but a good chunk of our [total] audience is people who are flipping around."

If a news network is going to attract casual viewers and turn them into loyal viewers, it helps to be in the same HD neighborhood as their cable news competitors. MSNBC in HD will launch at different times on different MSOs. It will debut on Cablevision on June 29 and on Time Warner in July. By the end of August, MSNBC HD will be available in 11 million homes.

Being part of the same HD real estate with CNN and Fox News is one thing, but brand awareness is another. "We still have to get our message out," Griffin concedes. "This year, we've just been constantly trying to make noise in a positive way so that people know who we are."

That din includes new dayside programming: The Meeting With Dylan Ratigan from 9-11 a.m., and an hour hosted by health guru Dr. Nancy Snyderman at noon, premiering with the June 29 HD launch. (Carlos Watson hosts a news headline hour at 11 a.m.)

"We're changing dayside away from the TelePrompTer headline news to Dylan Ratigan and Dr. Nancy. And we'll continue to do that less--of people sitting behind a desk, reading TelePrompTers," Griffin says. "Our audience knows what's going on. They've got BlackBerrys. They're on the Web. So we've got to give them more."

It's a strategy that MSNBC has employed to positive effect in the early morning with Joe Scarborough's Morning Joe, and in primetime with Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow. MSNBC, for years a distant third in the cable news ratings race behind leader Fox News and CNN, has now surpassed CNN in primetime among the network's target 25-54 demographic for the second consecutive quarter, according to data provided by Nielsen Media Research.

And while HD has not yet reached critical mass, it is where the market is heading.
"I think you've got to be there now," Griffin points out. "And I think in a year or two it will definitely make a huge difference. If you want to be competitive in this game, it's the price of entry."

NBCU would be better served to take theMSNBC HD capacity and rerun old shows from other NBCU networks. They changed the low-rated channel and it became even less popular. They have no market left.

The only upside is now we can see how bad the shows are **** in HD ****.

MSNBC averaged a better rating in primetime in both total viewers and the news demo during Q2 than CNN. Apparently it's also the top news network (besting even Fox News) in the 18-34 category. It's not going anywhere.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/ratings/q2_cable_ratings_msnbc_tops_cnn_in_prime_120395.asp

Originally Posted by Jedi Master View Post
They need to pull the plug on TV Land right now. That station is a former shell of itself. They should be embarrased of the situation they are in now.

Unfortunately, their ratings have never been higher.

Sad, but true.

Same for all commercial, all-the-time AMC.

I guess some folks would rather see some stupid reality shows that feature some old "cougar" than classic shows like Car 54, Hazel, My 3 Sons, Munsters, Mr. Ed and all the others that put TV Land on the map. They were good at what they done. Now they are just another fish in the sea (TBS, USA, TNT, etc. - just another variety channel)

What are some of the lowest rated cable networks out there? I'd think Bio, History International & G4 just to name a few. Also, probably Planet Green.

Unfortunately, their ratings have never been higher.

Sad, but true.

Same for all commercial, all-the-time AMC.

No. Their ratings are in the crapper. Their daytime lineup just fell out of the top 20 and they are overall 34th in the cable ratings. Just go to their message boards and look at all the complaining going on. TV Land is hurting bad.

http://forums.tvland.com/tvln/board?board.id=programcomments

Do remember, when thinking of low rated networks, there are networks that aren't rated at all. Sales have been light at most networks. Upfronts (where 80% of ad sales business is usually done) is in stall with not one deal made as yet. Note, it usually is wrapping up by now.

Maybe we should focus further. Could any local stations go dark? we read of sales of station groups. Could they choose to cease operations?

Could any local stations go dark?No.

we read of sales of station groups.Sure, that could and probably will happen. Could they choose to cease operations?No, that would not happen. Someone would buy them.

Why couldn't some local stations go dark? It's happened in the past -- many stations that were economically viable went dark in the sixties and seventies, and some did in the eighties, as well. There's even a website devoted to some of these failed stations -- the UHF Morgue.

We're not talking about major network affiliates in major markets, but possibly some of the minor players, especially in the smaller markets. Say, something like a sub-100 market MNTV affiliate. Or one of those stations in a larger market that subsists on infomercials.

MNT and CW don't have their own full-service affiliates in most small markets. They may have been on low-power stations or cable-only in the analog days, but most have since moved to subchannels of a major network affiliate, perhaps sharing time with a 24/7 network like RTN or This TV.

I simply don't see many full-power stations going dark because the license and associated must-carry status on cable and satellite is simply worth too much not to use. The current flood of low-power digital stations signing on with limited interest programming might be another story because of the lack of carriage, but it would take a lot of misfortune for a full-service station to simply shut down.

I doubt MNT will go, WWE provides plenty of ratings for it.

News Corp.'s MNTV has the rights to Smackdown. If they shut down My Network TV, it could either go to FOX(who usually kills off shows on Friday anyway) or even to cable on F/X. But I don't see My Network TV going off the air, at least not soon. They're in a better place now because of WWE, plus I doubt Murdoch/Ailes will pull the plug on their channel as long as the CW is still alive. For all we know, the CW could pull a complete turn around this season. They could have decent programming, and more viewers now that nobody is watching analog only OTA.

Unfortunately, their ratings have never been higher.

Sad, but true.



Not true. Their latest reality shows bombed bad and they've been tweaking their schedule almost weekly in attempt to drum up some ratings. Go to tv land's forum or the sitcomsonline forum for the dirt.

I forgot to mention that TV Land's ratings are hurting so bad that they started airing infomercials in the morning and started going "off the clock" so they could insert even more commercials into their programming. They've pretty much run the channel into the ground and made it unwatchable.

From THR.com

Bankruptcy looms for Sinclair
Drop in advertising to blame for company's woes

By Paul Bond

July 13, 2009

Shares of Sinclair Broadcast Group plunged 21% on Monday, the first trading day since the company warned that high debt and a weak advertising environment could force it into bankruptcy.

Sinclair, which owns or operates 58 television stations in 35 U.S. markets, said slow political advertising and a drop in auto advertising -- along with a recent downgrade of the company's debt -- will make it difficult to meet certain financial obligations.

The company said that auto ads used to make up a quarter of its business, but that sector dipped to 18% last year and to 14% in the first quarter this year.

Sinclair has $1.33 billion in debt and about $11 million in cash on hand. Last year, it lost $241 million on revenue of $756 million. Sinclair stock sunk 38 cents Monday to $1.46.

"If we are required to repurchase our 3% notes and 4.875% notes, we do not have the cash necessary to meet our repurchase obligations," Sinclair said in its filing.

The company said it will discuss its options during a conference call Tuesday.

(Although they filed Chpt.11 a few months, may as well add Young Broadcasting. I think the auction of assets was set for today or tomorrow. Young paid the highest price ever paid for a TV station when they purchased then NBC affiliate KRON - San Francisco about 9 years ago, some $830 million, I believe it's still the record.)

KRON-TV Owner Young Broadcasting Files Bankruptcy
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5 / AP) ―Feb 15, 2009 2:43 am US/Pacific


Young Broadcasting Inc., the parent company of KRON-TV in San Francisco, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Friday.

Word of the bankruptcy filing came in a letter to KRON employees from Young Broadcasting's chairman Vincent Young.

Young said the New York-based company had "more than $20 million cash on hand" and expected to continue operating its television stations as usual while undergoing bankruptcy reorganization.

The chairman emphasized that no layoffs were planned.

In explaining the rationale for the bankruptcy filing to employees, Young wrote simply: "Our company generates significant profits, but those profits are not sufficient to support all of our debt."

Young owns and operates 10 television stations across the country, the largest of which is KRON. Most of the others are affiliated with the CBS and ABC television networks and are concentrated in mid-sized markets in the Midwest and in New York state.

"Our decision to restructure through a Chapter 11 filing will allow the company to bring its debt in line with current economic realities so that we can emerge a stronger and more financially secure company. It is important to note that we are restructuring our debt, not our operations," said Young.

TV broadcasters in the U.S. are under pressure as the economic downturn reduces advertising revenue.

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service warned recently that broadcasters entered the recession with high debt and were struggling to retain audiences as more customers turn to portable gadgets and the Web for entertainment.

At the same time, broadcasters — and some of their cable counterparts — are facing tough times absent must-see television such as major political campaigns or the Olympics.

On Thursday, the country's fourth-largest cable operator Charter Communications Inc., said it expects to file for bankruptcy by April 1 and get relief from creditors.

The St. Louis-based company has never made a profit since it began trading publicly in 1999.

And last December, Chicago-based Tribune Co., which owns flagship newspapers such as the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, The (Baltimore) Sun, The Hartford Courant and other dailies, as well as 23 television stations and the Chicago Cubs baseball team, sought bankruptcy protection amid a $13 billion debt load and sinking ad revenues.

Young has also been struggling in recent months. Their stock has hovered near five cents a share for some time and was recently delisted by NASDAQ.

The company also reported in January that they planned to forego making a $6.125 million dollar interest payment.

Young's bankruptcy filing occured in U.S. bankruptcy court in the Southern District of New York.

The filing reported that Young's debts exceed assets by a little over $400 million.

Aside from KRON, the other stations owned by Young are:

_ WKRN-TV in Nashville, Tenn. (ABC)

_ WTEN-TV in Albany, N.Y. (ABC)

_ WRIC-TV in Richmond, Va. (ABC)

_ WATE-TV in Knoxville, Tenn. (ABC)

_ WBAY-TV in Green Bay, Wis. (ABC)

_ WLNS-TV in Lansing, Mich. (CBS)

_ KLFY-TV in Lafayette, La. (CBS)

_ KELO-TV in Sioux Falls, S.D. (CBS)

_ KWQC-TV in Davenport, Iowa (NBC)

In addition to its TV stations, Young Broadcasting owns a national television representation firm, Adam Young Inc.

http://cbs5.com/local/young.broadcasting.bankrupcty.2.935042.html

Young Stations Going to Lenders

"Highest offer" for stations comes from the bankers

By Michael Malone -- Broadcasting & Cable

It appears no bids on the Young stations met the minimum the company was looking for, so the struggling broadcaster's bankers look to assume control of Young Broadcasting.

"We received initial bids on Friday and spent the weekend reviewing them with our professionals," Chairman Vincent Young said in a memo to employees today. "The highest offer received was from our existing senior lenders. After speaking with the other qualified bidders, it became clear that they were not prepared to exceed that bid."

These senior lenders, a consortium of banks, bid $220 million. Young will ask the bankruptcy court to approve the bid July 22nd.

UBS has been handling the sale for Young. An auction was to take place Tuesday, but the bids did not appear to merit the need for one, so Young called it off. H.I.G. Capital was said to be a bullish bidder for the stations, at least early on.

Vincent Young said the company, which owns 10 stations, looks to emerge from bankruptcy "later this year with our lenders as our principal shareholders."

Young entered Chapt. 11 in February.

Young executives are to appear before Bankruptcy Court Wednesday to report on the "substantial progress" toward an agreement with its lenders. A subsequent court appearance next week will be to seek an order approving the transaction.

Chairman Young said having the lenders take over will dramatically reduce Young's crippling debt and give the company "an improved capital structure that will make us more competitive in the current economic environment."