I got to thinkin'...

How will we look back on our current PJs ten years from now?

Will they suffer the same fate as our once beloved interlaced CRT direct views?

Will we say, 'OMG, how did we ever live with that?"

Will the grandchildren ask 'You mean you had to change the bulb?"

Will the kid next door ask 'What's calibration mean?'

Will we dust off and old A/V magazine that talks about SDE, RBE, color wheels, dust bunnies, etc and say to ourselves: " I can't believe I paid that kind of money for something like this. They couldn't even get the grayscale right."

What will we say?

What will we say?
In 6 months xxx is coming out the previous gen one will be half price!
or
What projector/tv/Hologram projector should I buy?
or
What's the best *insert latest media player*?
or
Are cables really worth the money?
or
Yeah the colors are improved, but there's still a problem with....

A decade from now, the 3-D movie technology that Lucas and others are working on for feature films will become a standard (if you opt to watch in that method) and HD will be a thing of the past, as some other standard will be the new way to go.

People always say, why would you need anything better, but I remember saying that when I had first upgraded to CDs, a Pentium 1, Dolby Pro-Logic, a 36" TV, etc.

There's always better and it's just around the corner!

Media will probably not even exist, as you just have everything loaded into a virtual space that you own where things are stored (hopefully a backup too!). Everything from music to videos will all be digital, digital transferred via wires (or wireless) and obsolete discs (like HD-DVD, SACD, etc) will be a long forgotten thing of the past.

MP3s, streaming video, etc is already making that a reality very quickly!!!

In 10 years my Panny 3000 will be suffering from horrible 3-d banding while using wireless 10.2 surround video.

Can someone help me?

Victor

Media will probably not even exist, as you just have everything loaded into a virtual space that you own where things are stored (hopefully a backup too!). Everything from music to videos will all be digital, digital transferred via wires (or wireless) and obsolete discs (like HD-DVD, SACD, etc) will be a long forgotten thing of the past.

MP3s, streaming video, etc is already making that a reality very quickly!!!

I speculate that, because of copy right piracy issues, you won't own any videos. Everything will be on demand. You pay per play, in a format that's not licensed for any recordable or play back device. If there are exceptions, it will be severly down rezzed.

We'll still have threads about rainbow effects from holograms, SDE on our 5000p setups, and D* will still be downrezzing their MPEG6 standard ;)

Many here will still be waiting for just the right time to buy...............

Or you might be asking your friend if you set the safety to ON before entering the holodeck. Too optimistic...huh.:)

Ten years from now I don't think projectors will be a serious player in Home Theater. By then I think most people will will be using large screen wall mounted display devices. I don't know weather they will be improved versions of the current plasma or LCD technology, or an entirely new type of display, but I think they will be priced low enough to make projectors obsolete for most people.

That's what I thought about projectors ten years ago, but they are still around. Instead, entry level (basic true HD by then) will be like $500 while the next level up will be like $1000 while the top of the line $30k ones will offer some ridiculous resolution we'll all be dying to get (like 3000 x 5000 lines or something).

How long until the odor box is introduced!? Hey, we're going for that "you are there" feeling in a home theater, right? Afterall, there are those bass shaker things. Wouldn't it just be great to smell the sewers of New York during a mad chase scene!? LOL! :D

Hey, we're going for that "you are there" feeling in a home theater, right?
I'm not even going to guess what porn will be like in 10 years. :)

Seriously, with the things that are being worked on now I expect ambient light issues to be mostly solved, sources to still be pretty much limited to 1080i/1080p, black level issues to be pretty much solved and SDE and pixelization to mostly be a thing of the past (although some might still complain about it on their $1k 1080p unit). Even in 10 years I don't see cheaper units going beyond 1080p unless it is a different technology though.

--Darin

we will all have screens that can be used with almost any amount of normal ambient light

I agree. I think ambient light issues will be solved.

I also don't think much will have changed, really, from a video perspective, other than that all displays will be flat and wall mounted. Resolutions will be higher, of course, but so will prices. Projectors will still be a niche market.

Not to get off subject, but the one thing I see really changing in a revolutionary way in home theater is in amplifier and speaker technology. The efficiencies of digital amps and digital sound processing is too great to ignore. In ten years, I suspect you will not even be able to buy an analog amp except in some high-end esoteric way (like tubes and turntables now). And speakers will sound a lot better, given the abilty to correct room modes in real time. I think this is where the big changes will come in the next ten years.

Doug

How bout we just write a wish list of what we want in next gen devices and formats... like I'd want at least 4:4:4 encoding for higher colour res, hi-res lossless multichannel audio to be bare minimum, 1080p resolution bare minimum on new sources (I mean why are we still giving a toss about interlaced, it should have died a long time ago, the fact that we have 1080i sources on next gen formats is befuddling), that all basic audio equipment and software has some level of room correction and bass management etc.

I'd like for new technology to improve upon the old technology in all aspects, not just some, e.g. how we still haven't exceeded CRT levels of contrast performance yet, despite many many generations. It just goes to show that the solution is not DLP or LCD or plasma or CRt etc. We need a new saviour!

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

In ten years...

... I'm going to be looking at this thread laughing at what we actually thought would be available (whether better or worse)... :)

I think you guys are a little too ambitious. 10 years ago DVDs were just coming out... and we still have them. And CRT still produces the best image... as it did 10 years ago.

in ten years, my personal robot butler will come and switch on my pj for me, then mix a perfect martini for me to enjoy Bad Boys 5 with.

" In ten years...

... I'm going to be looking at this thread laughing at what we actually thought would be available (whether better or worse)... "

God bless the search feature

I don't think things will really be that much different in 10 years. Others are right, 20 years ago we were listening to CD's and watching VHS tapes. Today many people are still listening to CD's and watching VHS tapes. Yes DVD's have come along, but they have really just made a dent over VHS in the last 4-5 years. People are not going to just suddenly dump all those DVD's in such a sort time frame. Yes TV's will be a little bigger, hopefully a little cheaper and projectors might be a little more mainstream, but I don't think the market will look that much different.

I disagree. Year to year we generally see siginificant improvements in the market for projectors. Yes, not as significant as we might like ;). But think back to 2003. There was not a true HD projector in this category if I remember correctly (what was the rez on the HS10?). We had 1/4 HD like the L300U which was nice, but I'd be willing to bet the majority of users in this forum had X1s. We also had a lot less traffic. We now have significantly more traffic. We are on our second, and soon to be 3rd generation of 720P LCDs and finally have 720p DLPs in our forum. Sometime in the near future 1080p LCDs will be introduced (though out of our price range for now...). Is EVERY projector a improvement? No. But generally we do get improvement year to year. If the current pace is kept up, 10 years from now will be a very different world in projectors from what we know.

In 10 years I plan to be writing here, complaining that the retractable black screen built into my new home is too small for me, at only 10 feet wide. I'll wonder why the homebuilders hadn't standardized on a bigger size.
If black screens do solve the ambient (sunlight) problem, then projectors will be preferable to wall sized displays, because then the TV can disappear to let old fashioned paintings decorate the wall.
... and people will maintain a lively debate about which is better, TV with lights on, or with lights off.

In 10 years we will take big picture quality for granted. The excitement in this forum will be about 3D, with shutter glasses.

In 10 years, piracy will be like cigarettes, fashonable only in the third world.

what was the rez on the HS10?

It still is 1368x768. :D

My neice of 12 years asked what a record was (you know, the BIG black thing from the 70-80's...that played scratchy music..?? I still own a few...breakdance fever, motown specials, etc.). I can see kids asking "Whats a CRT?" in the near future....I'm sure my 2 yr old will when he grows up!

I can see kids asking "Whats a CRT?" in the near future....I'm sure my 2 yr old will when he grows up!

Don't be surprised if he/she asks what DLP and LCD stood for either. My crystal ball says SED will become the dominate flat screen technology, but comes up foggy on projection.

In 10 years:

MUCH of the movie "The 6th Day" will be a reality.

Go watch it again, I think it is one of the best references of what we will expect to see in our lifetimes.

Not to get off subject, but the one thing I see really changing in a revolutionary way in home theater is in amplifier and speaker technology. The efficiencies of digital amps and digital sound processing is too great to ignore. In ten years, I suspect you will not even be able to buy an analog amp except in some high-end esoteric way (like tubes and turntables now). And speakers will sound a lot better, given the abilty to correct room modes in real time. I think this is where the big changes will come in the next ten years.

I agree with this. With the Panasonic XR55 wowing those on the low end, I certainly can see this being the future, tho the old school will take a while to buy into it.

I actually don't see resolution increasing much from 1080p. Maybe for the high end, but for the average user, I don't see much more room for improvement. I do think the technology will get better. LED-based projectors will become more of a reality. There is always room to improve contrast and image quality.

I still think projectors will be with us 10 years down the line. There just isn't much out there that will product a large image at a reasonable price.

Jason

I still think projectors will be with us 10 years down the line. There just isn't much out there that will product a large image at a reasonable price.

Jason

Indeed. Long before TV there it was.

The future: 3D anyone? Holograms? Laser and/or LED light sources? Hi Def wireless transmissions on demand? All-in-one capture, record, and playback units? Who knows...maybe even voice control?

I still think projectors will be with us 10 years down the line. There just isn't much out there that will product a large image at a reasonable price.

Jason


You guys need to quit thinking bigger and start thinking smaller

Oakley has an mp3 player sunglass unit
10 years I'm sure they'll incorporate video into it.
if yuo can fit music in a pair of sunglasses, you know there's gonna be some serious video coming out in smaller units.
which leads right into virtual reality and chip implants.

You guys need to quit thinking bigger and start thinking smaller

.

The 'glasses' part sounds cool but would prolly go over like headphones. Everybody has 'em...nobody prefers to use them. Nothing quites satisfies like a 120" screen at 1.5x. Except maybe a 140" screen.

Think big. It's quite American, you know.

Lots of intersting speculation, but one thing left out of the equation is human nature. Fact is, people resist change. I heard somewhere that a standard will remain in place until something comes along that is perceptibly 80 percent better or 20 percent of the cost.

Cars over horses, definitely 80 percent better.

Three days by train or 4 hours by air, 80 percent better by far.

CD's over records, arguably 80 percent better.

Computers over office workers, most definitely 20 percent of cost.

I just don't see these kinds of things developing in the world of video yet. I will point out that we are only just now recreating a technology in our homes that has been available in movie theaters for 80-90 years. Sure, we have better picture and sound, but it's still basically a big image on the wall with music.

I would like to see something come along but, sheesh, trying to get my wife to accept the idea of five speakers in our living room is enough for this cowboy for now.

Doug

...the one thing you can expect IS change when it comes to consumer electronics. And, OEMs, the clever rascals that they are, have figured out how the milk the cow every step of the way.
No big leaps, just constant upgrades and keen pricing keeps us coming back for more.
Whether you like it or not, you will change too. Try and buy a car with a carburator. Try and buy a new LP. When was the last time you saw a new typewriter for sale? How much longer will film cameras be manufactured? You get the idea.
BTW, many will argue here at AVS analog is still best, CRTs are King, they still ride horses, LP is superior to CD, and someone is always fixing the computers. Nobody is complaining about the planes, however.

Agreed, change will happen, but nothing that will 'replace' current technology. Hence, I maintain that not much will be different ten years from now.

Good point on cameras. Yes, digital is much, much better than film and will quickly replace it.

Doug

Will photographs be lost though?

How often do you take photos on a digicam only to delete it off memory sometime later, or, even if you do d/load them to HDD, how often are they printed (and then on decent quality photopaper), what about backing up / burning to disc (scratched discs or failed HDD anyone)?

Sorry for the OT questions, but IMO digital is not necessarily better than film for cameras.

Ten years from now?

We have the CRT die hards on AVS discussing the merits of 4x4 grids of blended G90 stacks they picked up really cheap.

We have DLP fans discussing whether any headaches can be felt from the latest 8000x4000 axial rotating projectors with wobbulating angular sensitive reflection screens.

And we have the LCD fanatics discuss the merits of improving black levels by wearing Ninja gear while viewing a movie and using a 20,000 ANSI lumens lamp together with an optical solar filter.

:D

@htpcfan
Ahahahaha... ninja gear... gotta love that. Reminds me of "The Urban Ninja".

Actually my friend had a funny experience a few years back. As he was driving along he thought he saw a ninja from outta nowhere walking towards his car, turned out it was a lady with the traditional muslim head dress (don't know what they are called sorry), oh how we laughed the night away.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

I just don't see these kinds of things developing in the world of video yet. I will point out that we are only just now recreating a technology in our homes that has been available in movie theaters for 80-90 years. Sure, we have better picture and sound, but it's still basically a big image on the wall with music.



why stop there, have you read Plato's republic, the allegory of the cave? we are only just now recreating a technology in our homes that has been available in caves for 2000+ years. Sure, we have better picture and sound, but it's still basically a big image on the wall




I don't know what will happen in 10 years. But I do know some of us will be here discussing the current tech, what we need for the next level , what will come out in CEDIA 2015 and at what price as well as what the technology will be in 10 years.

as to what I would like, that would be a display device that is the wall (either paint on LCD http://www.prisma-techniek.nl/latestnews_lcd.htm or http://www.research.philips.com/technologies/display/paintdisp/ or e-wall-paper http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/07/13/fujitsu_epaper/) and that is audio generating

Well let’s see. 20 years ago I got a mid-priced Sharp LCD PJ that was 640 x 480 projecting on a 72" diagonal screen with SDE coming out its ears. I was watching movies on my Pioneer Laserdisc player, and I had just upgraded to a 4.1 channel surround sound system (no center channel) with a Velodyne ULD-15 subwoofer.

Today I'm watching a 1280 x 720 MT700 on a 106" diagonal screen for less than 1/3 the cost (a real plus). The sound is a 5.1 channel (7.1 channel as soon as I get the rear channel speakers mounted & wired in), using the same 15" Velodyne subwoofer, BTW.

In another 10 years, I’ll be drooling over not being able to afford a $25K holographic PJ and listening to a 15.4, all-digital, surround sound system. Meanwhile, I’ll be watching my 1920 x 1080 PJ on a 120” “Black” screen (can’t go any bigger because of my room width), and listening to my 9.2 channel surround sound system with my new all digital receiver. The Velodyne will probably be replaced, by then, with 2 of the latest SVS units (or equivalent). My signal sources will be a blu-ray DVD player and a HDTV receiver (hopefully all TV broadcasts will be in HD by then). The cost for this system will be about what I paid for what I have now. Too bad Hollywood won’t be able to keep up.

Maybe by that time we will have started building a base station on the Moon in preparation for Earth’s first manned Mars mission. We can dream can’t we?

I really hope the more optimistic of you are right, but I just don’t see it without a big change in corporate & government think. There was a lot more changes in my dad’s lifetime than there has been in mine, so far.

I predict that in 10 years, I will have the same setup I have now plus an 8yr and 6yr kid! Oh, and Sony will be releasing some new format that creates a 3rd format war!

Will photographs be lost though?

How often do you take photos on a digicam only to delete it off memory sometime later, or, even if you do d/load them to HDD, how often are they printed (and then on decent quality photopaper), what about backing up / burning to disc (scratched discs or failed HDD anyone)?

Sorry for the OT questions, but IMO digital is not necessarily better than film for cameras.
How often do you actually look at a photograph? In my experience, you want to look at a photograph for one of two reasons: browsing through a particular set of photos (in an album) that are from an event or for a particular person, or you just want to find a single photo that you remember being very special/funny/unique, etc.

With digital, finding a single photo is much easier (if you have them even slightly organized... thumbnails anyone?). Displaying a series of photos (typically to a group that is over) is much easier and enjoyable on a TV, projector, or monitor, than it is having people crowd around the album or pass it back and forth.

Even beyond those reasons, the main reason(s) I went to all digital is not having a ton of albums taking up space, and because they are in a digital format and will last forever (essentially free backups, since I will always have space for my normal data as well to backup).

Will photographs be lost though?

Undoubtedly. It's a valid question. But think how many are lost now in fires, floods, neglect, etc. The questions you ask are related to storage of photos, not the actual process of creating an image. At least with digital you can have as many copies stored in different places as you like. Right now, I literally have boxes of negatives that have never been printed. My only desire is to get them scanned and then maybe, with enough work, I can turn some of them into photographs. My wife's father has boxes of photos from pre-communist China and Tibet, and Burma, some the first photos ever taken of various peoples, and some have already been lost due to poor storage. We are trying hard to get them scanned so at least we have some hope of keeping these treasures intact.

I have no problem with someone who wants to stick with film. It's a great medium and at this point still more flexible than digital, but the convienience of digital and it's increasing flexibility, I believe, will win out in the end.

Just my thoughts

Doug

Things don't seem to change that much in 10 years. My desktop resolution has barely doubled. Unlike home theater fans, the majority of people in society still watch regular analog TVs which haven't changed for decades. So, with some luck, 1080p may be the standard of video in 2015, although nerds everywhere will be proclaiming that the PS5 may "support" some much high, unorthodox resolution when it comes out, while others will counter with the fact that 2160p or whatever is simply not a standard display resolution and will only be a gimmick. It could still be 720p at best for the average person.

Even beyond those reasons, the main reason(s) I went to all digital is not having a ton of albums taking up space, and because they are in a digital format and will last forever (essentially free backups, since I will always have space for my normal data as well to backup).

Well, the "last forever" statment is rather debatable, and is a debate for archivists everywhere. I think the lifespan for CD-Rs are about 10-15 years. There isn't a storage medium yet that isn't going to degrade at some point.

Then, there is obsolesance. Eventually, the storage mediums and the file formats we use today will be superseded by other formats. There are still propietary formats (like Nikon's RAW format) that eventually could lead to losing data because you don't have a reader for it anymore.

Not to say the analog world is much better, with the odd film format, films which deteriorate early, etc, but the digital world has its own issues.

Jason

I'm certainly not counting on a CD-R to store my backups. Having the data on RAID arrays and multiple different disks in different boxes is enough to keep it solid state for me. You can always be transferring the data from one digital storage medium to another, and have it in multiple locations, etc. Obviously there's data still saved from 30+ years ago that's digital, and just happens to be on a different medium now (newer hard disk, tape, DVD, etc).

Regarding obsolescence, I can't really imagine any future formats for the next 50 years at least, that won't be able to save digitally. If not digitally, then what other possible format is there? The only issue with digital is the format it's stored in. A loss of quality might occur if the standard changes from JPEG & TIFF to something else, but I would imagine if it's a better standard, it wouldn't lose much if anything.

You know, one thing that I would really like to see, and I think it is possible in ten years, is to have live, high-def feeds of scenes from around the world. I mean, watching a panoramic view of thunderstorms rolling across an African plain would be cool. Maybe a rainforest scene, or a street in New York, or a bridge being built, a bird's nest, a seashore, a waterfall, a mountain. Anything. Of course, a whole wall display to show it would be the ultimate.

Doug

That's completely possible now -- there's just no profitability from it (not enough demand for the price it would cost for the few who would pay for it). Perhaps there could be a cable channel that would have near-live feeds that would be delayed slightly, and the producer could take the most interesting feeds in the last hour and splice them together, etc... The downside is if you wanted a peaceful sunrise for an hour but they only showed 10 minutes, and switched to an interesting street in NYC. The only way around that is a ton of channels each displaying something different. I suppose if they can get to the point where it's very cheap to have multiple HD channels and cameras with long distance satellite feeds, then this would be more likely to happen.

Oh, and for the record, I'd love to have a few channels like this as well!

There are not many clear thoughts in this thread. Perhaps that is the point.

But resolution is not going anywhere. TV is in a decade-and-a-half process of changing its resolution for the first time ever. You really think it will change again in the next 10 years? Come on, how about some reality. It will barely have finished by then.

The discussion of resolution brings Imax to mind. Their 70x70mm film has no worries about standing out for years to come, esp shown on round Omni screens. That is one group of DVDs for which I will wait for some sort of HD disc to come out. For movies I'm saying, "good enough" right now and still purchasing, Imax...different story.

Oh, and the glasses with TV....they are sorta available now. Sony Glasstron. Seems to have died out, though.

i'm waiting for my flying car

You will be able to see those digital pics on your digital wall :) create frame, add on wall X in area Y cycle through folder Z of pics every 1/2 hour.

as for seeing the world in real life, those are called webcams, and for many stuff exist today :)

The idea of webcams is why I think this could happen. I'm guessing bandwidth is the big limiting factor.

If does become reality, how long before people plant themselves in front of the camera and do something stupid? I can see it now: You are watching a gorgeous sunset and someone marches into the scene holding a sign protesting the killing of vegetables. Or worse, an advertisement for sunscreen.

Doug

I haven't seen any webcams streaming 1280x720 (minimum)...

Taperwood -- If you want to see thunderstorms rolling across Africa, get the IMAX DVD "Blue Planet". It's got some really excellent scenes as well as some good sound effects. Coral Reef Adventure is another good one. BTW, Mark Cuban (HDNet) is experimenting with some of the picture programming you’re talking about :cool:.

A lot of advances are possible now; the question is "foot-dragging" which is impeding the actual implementation of these technologies. We AVS members want the bleeding edge of what’s possible; at least, until we have to pay for it :eek:.

I agree with Tim on the digital camera issue. I switched to digital “film” in 1998 and haven’t looked back :D. All my pictures are archived on 2 different computers plus 2 external hard drives and most are also saved on DVD-R disks. We are in the process of scanning in all the old family pictures (and digitally repairing the tears, smudges, etc.) before they are lost forever. It’s a really big job, but now we can find them :rolleyes:.

Tim -- The Sony HD video cameras are still pretty expensive and Canon hasn't really caught up yet.

There are some comments here regarding longevity of digital vs film. How is it that digital is shortchanged to that level? CD-Rs may only last 15 years (I have some from over 10 years ago that I burnt myself that is still going strong, and yet I have some only 2 years ago that have started to develop CRC errors), but the point is, if something is important enough to keep, you'd be wanting to do backups of backups every few years anyway. For example, I had a very large collection on CD-Rs, they took up lots of room in wallets and cd-cases etc. Fast forward to today and I have re-archived them to DVDs (I will still keep the CD-Rs for peace of mind and in case I have a bad DVD or two), when DVDs begin to show signs of obsolesence or when my discs start to wear down, it won't take so long to re-archive them again... try doing that with film. And as for formats becoming obsolete, the presence of lossless formats and convertors will ensure the survival of most formats. JPG, TIFF, BMP and GIF have been around for ages, (GIF is not suitable for photos nowadays), and PNG is the new kid on the block for lossless saves. Whatever replaces these long standing formats will obviously come with convertors, and batch conversions won't take very long at all. Though don't mind me, feel free to hang onto film for as long as it makes you happy.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

In 10 years, we won't be talking about projectors. They'll be cheap and very, very good. There will be something else to obsess about. ;-)

Ricketty

Duy-Khang, you give a good example of how simple it is to archive digitally. Another great advantage that makes this easier is that future discs/technologies almost always have more capacity as well.

I still think projectors will be used in 10 years, but will be much more mainstream. My local BestBuy is in the process of putting up a front projection display area right now. Perhaps in 15+ years or so, complete wall flat screen LCDs (or similar) will probably be somewhat common (at least to us). Just my guess...

Which BB? I went to Maple Grove since it is supposedly one of their signature stores, their setup has gone BACKWARDS since adding Magnolia. Really crappy. (not that I expected much from BB)

The Roseville store is supposedly adding it right now (at least, they said it will be very, very soon a couple weeks ago)... I'll stop by there today after work, as I have a few errands to run in the area.

In ten years' time Hollywood will have ceased making movies that anybody wants to see. At that point, some Taiwanese company will put all existing movies into a device the size of say a joystick, which you then simply connect to your TV and pick the movie to watch from a cheesy on-screen menu. Of course, since this will sell for $19.99 at Wal-Mart, they will have skimped on a power supply and it will require a new 9V battery every few movies or so.

Just my prediction.

I predict that in 10 years, I will have the same setup I have now plus an 8yr and 6yr kid! Oh, and Sony will be releasing some new format that creates a 3rd format war!

I'm still laughing at this one. Well, at least he'll have two good years. Enjoy.

Well, that's offensive.

Let's see 1080p 19" CRT is $179 at Wal-Mart with built in HD-Video player and HD Tuner. Ultra brite LED's replace projector bulbs, last as long as CRT's and consume less power.

I think the format of the display will remain the same: Some type of image projected onto a flat surface.

Content delivery will be awesome. You get a cable or phone company to provide you with a broadband 30Mb + connection over coax or phone wire. Then you have HD-TV, HD Video on demand, IP phone, and internet all on one wire into your house. Your DVR is networked to your PC, or is your PC, and that is connected to your phone line and cell phone. You can program your DVR with your cell phone. Order the latest episode of CSI: Fargo to be dumped to your DVR and ready to watch when you get home. You can choose content with commercials for free or without for a small charge. Create your own marathon night with 3 or 4 episodes of your favorite show, or watch the new programming that is being broadcast that day. Sporting events will have several angles to choose from so you can pick the camera angle you want to watch and switch at any time. Watch every football game from the 50 yardline in HD if you want.

When you buy the latest movie you get a digital license and download the movie to your DVR. Get it with or without multi-channel audio, in the language and format you want. You can burn a copy yourself, and if you lose or damage the media just re-enter your digital license and grab another copy.

Movie theaters install some type of shielding to prevent any cell phone signals from reaching inside the theater.

Let's see 1080p 19" CRT is $179 at Wal-Mart with built in HD-Video player and HD Tuner. Ultra brite LED's replace projector bulbs, last as long as CRT's and consume less power.

I think the format of the display will remain the same: Some type of image projected onto a flat surface.

Content delivery will be awesome. You get a cable or phone company to provide you with a broadband 30Mb + connection over coax or phone wire. Then you have HD-TV, HD Video on demand, IP phone, and internet all on one wire into your house. Your DVR is networked to your PC, or is your PC, and that is connected to your phone line and cell phone. You can program your DVR with your cell phone. Order the latest episode of CSI: Fargo to be dumped to your DVR and ready to watch when you get home. You can choose content with commercials for free or without for a small charge. Create your own marathon night with 3 or 4 episodes of your favorite show, or watch the new programming that is being broadcast that day. Sporting events will have several angles to choose from so you can pick the camera angle you want to watch and switch at any time. Watch every football game from the 50 yardline in HD if you want.

When you buy the latest movie you get a digital license and download the movie to your DVR. Get it with or without multi-channel audio, in the language and format you want. You can burn a copy yourself, and if you lose or damage the media just re-enter your digital license and grab another copy.

Movie theaters install some type of shielding to prevent any cell phone signals from reaching inside the theater.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're going in the wrong direction.

First off, they now have wallpaper that displays video due to nanotechnology.
If anyone reads Star Wars books, there was a Grand Admiral Thrawn who had personal chambers where all of the wall art changed randomly. This is now possible with the wallpaper video.

Secondly, there is a technology out there called WiMax which is Wifi with a 30 mile radius (being tested in Spain). I believe in 10 years not only will everything be wireless, but the speed will be beyond 100Mbps for the consumer.

As far as A/V delivery, you can tell what will happen to video by following audio. MP3 players are big right now, imagine in 10 years you'll be able to have a fully functioning mobile computer that will fit in the palm of your hand and recognize voice commands. Even better, it will be part of your clothing.

10 years is a LONG time, especially since every year we're getting closer and closer (except space) to incredible inventions only dreamed of 10-15 years ago.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're going in the wrong direction.

First off, they now have wallpaper that displays video due to nanotechnology.
If anyone reads Star Wars books, there was a Grand Admiral Thrawn who had personal chambers where all of the wall art changed randomly. This is now possible with the wallpaper video.


10 years is a LONG time, especially since every year we're getting closer and closer (except space) to incredible inventions only dreamed of 10-15 years ago.

Will this be the roll up type or perhaps something like Mr Wizzard's expandable screen we saw as children watching Tennessee Tuxedo? There I go dating myself again.

no, these are installed screens that are your wall every bit of your wall is a pixel and so you can download pics to your walls controller and then tell it to put a family portrait at position (X,Y) on the wall you could also tell it at (m,n) to do a slide show and cycle a set of pictures every so often and at (a,b) put a screen and show movies/TV. You will also be able to tell it what colour you want the rest of the wall, it is Halloween make the walls orange and black, it is Christmas paint them red and green....

That's some pretty expensive decorating bills.. (electricity)

Also, I don't know of many people with built-in whole house speaker systems much less LCD-like wallpaper in 10 years... I suppose it never hurts to dream... (I'm usually too much of a realist I suppose)

I just feel like dreaming BIG in this thread. On the other hand some of the techs like e-paper are passive, electricity is only used to force the change, for wall colour that would be enough, but my guess if you want a good display section it would need some kind of back illumination and have no idea if it can be limited to the "TV" area of the wall.

Is it just me or do others notice an imbalance between the two? Displays are gaining ground with each and every new generation. Yet, software seems to have, with just a few minor exceptions, peeked at DVD.
Though we are on the verge of 1080p and higher, software really takes the back seat. DVDs have been around for a decade, CDs since the 1980s, and VHS before that. WIth the exception of D-Theater (at last count about 75 titles) and a few Asian 720p DVDs where's the HD counterpart?

What's it going to take to get the show on the road?

Here's a taste of the hardware now or soon available:

June 29, 2005 — Mitsubishi Digital Electronics America, Inc. is claiming bragging rights to being the first rear-projection HDTV maker to bring Texas Instruments' 1080p DLP technology to your corner TV store. Mitsubishi (sometimes called by customers shopping for big screens "Mister Bushi" - as in, "Let me see one of those Mister Bushi TVs" - seriously, I'm not making this up) says they'll claim their rightful place in the consumer-electronics history books when they begin shipping the 52-inch WD-52627 to certain lucky (or brown-nosing) Southern California retailers on June 30th. National distribution of the widescreen HDTV will commence in the following weeks. The suggested retail price of the WD-52627 is $3,699 (plus local taxes and applicable delivery charges).

Since there isn't any 1080p material currently available for the average or even above-average consumer to watch, processing circuitry is used to upscale the incoming video (1080i, 720p, 480p, and 480i) and fool you into thinking you're watching true 1080p. Mitsubishi says their 1080p HDTV projectors will utilize an exclusive technology they call Plush1080p to upconvert all incoming signals. The company comments that "given its higher pixel density, even a super-sized 73-inch 1080p DLP HDTV can deliver a sharper picture than a 50-inch 720p model." (Buy your mother still won't let you sit as close to the TV as you want to.)

TI states that the 1080p DLP chip offers a variety of features that the various manufacturers who will soon be shipping 1080p HDTVs - such as Mitsubishi, Samsung, Toshiba, and LG - can adapt in their own technologically creative ways to produce the best image possible:



SharpPicture:
A processing enhancement that works in conjunction with SmoothPicture technology to simultaneously provide sharp, yet smooth and seamless images.
DynamicColor:
Enhances colors and contrast without impacting skin tones, allowing for more vibrant and lifelike color reproduction.
DynamicBlack:
A system level solution which provides dramatic increases in system contrast ratio and grayscale fidelity by as much as 4x, bringing greater detail to dark scenes and images and allowing customers to achieve contrast ratios well above 5000:1.
DarkChip3:
A feature that includes architectural changes to the DLP chip resulting in a 20 - 40% improvement in contrast over DarkChip2.
Earlier this year, Mitsubishi announced nine 1080p DLP integrated HDTVs - ranging from 52 to 73 inches - which are expected to ship during the summer and fall of this year. Three of the nine models to come (WD-73727, WD-73827, and WD-73927) feature a 73-

Who noticed NINE 1080p sets from this ONE manufacturer? Who noticed the advanced feature set?

Personal VR. No more CRT or projector rubbish. Plugged / Wireless straight into the brain at infinite resolution and contrast ratio or at least good enough to emulate reality.

Everyone will have personal 3-D holo cameras. You'll be able to share you day with someone else or share a memory. Great memorys will be saleable.

You'll be able to watch a VR film with as many friends as you want (or have). You might even be able to be the hero. It'll be totally malleable.

I can picture there being some sort of TV that you buy rolled up like a rug. You just take the top corners and mount it to your wall, and let it unroll to the floor. A removeable cord plugs into the bottom and bam, you got near paper thin HDTV images from a big clear flexible rug hanging on your wall. When you want to move it, you just take it down and roll it up! I think that's pretty feasable within ten years. That is....if we all survive WWIII. Wooooowweeeeeeooooooh!

Personal VR. No more CRT or projector rubbish. Plugged / Wireless straight into the brain at infinite resolution and contrast ratio or at least good enough to emulate reality.

Call me old fashioned, but I cannot imagine there will ever be a day when I will think it's a good idea to plug something electronic into my brain unless a team of surgeons tell me I'm going to die without it.

Even then, I'm getting a second opinion.

Love this thread,

I have always loved looked forward and trying to use evidence from existing technologies to derive new and different applications of the technologies. I think like others here that minaturization is the key to what we will see coming. Cell phones were seen as a great tech but rarely used at their inception. They were large/heavy/bulky and just plain "NOT STYLISH". Now I could not think of being without mine as it also acts as my MP3 player, PDA, Gaming Device, Data Storage, oh and its a phone. I think there are three major concepts on the plate for all consumer merchandise.
1) miniaturization - Smaller more wearable/stylish devices (see ipod)
2) convergence - Multiple use of a single device (use your personal assistant device to pay your bills, pay for your groceries, receive/send your mail, play your music, play your personal videos...)
3) Data - Data delivery (on demand wireless, push vs pull your choice), Analysis(realtime stocks and weather not only delivered to you but analyzed for you based upon your preferences/conditions), Manipulation (lighten/darken/soften), Output (multiple choices here given the wireless capabilities).

The funny thing is - looking at all these technologies we can do most of them today. However, the difficult thing is to merge them all into a standard that is worldwide acceptable for security, privacy, and ease of use.

As for display devices? THIN is in and large too i think it will stay that way.
As for audio? Virtual Surround field generation using smaller speaker like items that are a lot less like furniture and can be worked into any decor (see yamaha's virtual surround speaker element here (http://www.yamaha.ca/av/YSP1/main.jsp) ).

I can picture there being some sort of TV that you buy rolled up like a rug. You just take the top corners and mount it to your wall, and let it unroll to the floor. A removeable cord plugs into the bottom and bam, you got near paper thin HDTV images from a big clear flexible rug hanging on your wall. When you want to move it, you just take it down and roll it up! I think that's pretty feasable within ten years. That is....if we all survive WWIII. Wooooowweeeeeeooooooh!

Can I preorder and bypass the war?

The next big thing i see is affordable 3d displays(without the silly glasses) in the home, they will probably start off as the plasma display pricing and go down. It will probably be the size of lets say a smaller pj, like the Optoma H31, and it will be mounted on the ceiling, and project downwards instead of pj now which project in front of you... and little kids are going to go crazy with it... i had a relative who was only like 2 or so, when he saw my pj and we watched finding nemo, he went up to the screen and just watched it and hit the screen in amazement and kept looking back at us on the couch and pointing at the screen, it was funny... just think what he would do if it was 3d... but as far a media storage, it will proably the Holographic Versitile discs, or something real similar to it but named, Green-Ray Discs... but who knows right? other than that, the audio part will just be all digital except for the people who still think the old formats sound better... but the surround sound may move up to 12.4, if that... but all i know is that... we will all be there getting newer stuff when it comes out and then dreaming about newer and better stuff...

Arty

The next big thing i see is affordable 3d displays(without the silly glasses) in the home, they will probably start off as the plasma display pricing and go down. It will probably be the size of lets say a smaller pj, like the Optoma H31, and it will be mounted on the ceiling, and project downwards instead of pj now which project in front of you... and little kids are going to go crazy with it... i had a relative who was only like 2 or so, when he saw my pj and we watched finding nemo, he went up to the screen and just watched it and hit the screen in amazement and kept looking back at us on the couch and pointing at the screen, it was funny... just think what he would do if it was 3d... but as far a media storage, it will proably the Holographic Versitile discs, or something real similar to it but named, Green-Ray Discs... but who knows right? other than that, the audio part will just be all digital except for the people who still think the old formats sound better... but the surround sound may move up to 12.4, if that... but all i know is that... we will all be there getting newer stuff when it comes out and then dreaming about newer and better stuff...

Arty
You mean something like this (http://www.ohgizmo.com/2005/08/17/interactive-3d-display-its-here/)?

yeah similar to that, but holographic and it shoots down so its not in peoples way while they walk around :D hehehehe

Arty

You mean something like this (http://www.ohgizmo.com/2005/08/17/interactive-3d-display-its-here/)?

Yes, and like this too. Looks like more than one gizmo geek is at it.

http://techdigestuk.typepad.com/tech_digest/2004/11/holographic_pro.html

Six months later:

* Cell phones advertised on TV that...what don't they do?
* A pop-top pen set...unfolds as a desktop PC.
* 1080p LCOS 15,000:1 CR Front projector.
* A 30" LCD display with a 1,000,000 to 1 CR
* A rollout display that fits into a shirt pocket.
and more.

I hate to tell you guys, but likely none of this stuff is going to happen. We have hit peak oil production and we are likely looking at the end of the world as we know it. In 10 years, we may be putting on puppet shows in our cold dark houses for entertainment.

I would have a hard time choosing between high-definition video googles and a holographic projector. The googles could include headphones that synthesized 7.1 or better. You wouldn't need a dark room or even worry about disturbing others in the room. It would also have a WAF probably 2-300 percent of what a projector and screen could get. Also, it is unlikely parts would need to be periodically replaced (i.e., bulbs).

The holographic projector will definitely arrive, although I don't know about 10 years from now. The idea of sitting in the middle of a film is probably the ultimate and could even be dangerous for people with damaged health condition.

The problem, however, will be the content -- not how we get it, but what it is. There is so little good television and so few good films. Hopefully, that will change too.

How long until the odor box is introduced!? Hey, we're going for that "you are there" feeling in a home theater, right? Afterall, there are those bass shaker things. Wouldn't it just be great to smell the sewers of New York during a mad chase scene!? LOL! :D

You're not far from the truth. Check out
"How internet smells will work" on HowStuffWorks. (http://www.howstuffworks.com/internet-odor1.htm)

In 10 years we will have OLED wallpaper that creates screens as large as you want with full ambient light:P

http://membres.lycos.fr/marsetsf/tr/wall2.jpg

You guys should read the book "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil. He proposes that technology growth is exponential and we are currently arriving at the turning point where those exponential returns begin to really take effect. So although it seems like the last ten years may not have had that great a change (although i think a ton has changed since 1996), the furture holds much faster technological development. Its a very interesting book, i think it may be a bit extreme (he says that by the 2030's our bodies will be more non biological than biological, and we will effectively stop, and maybe even reverse, aging. It should be noted that this guy isnt some hack with a bunch of theories, he is the most reputable furturist in the world, and has a good track record based on books he wrote in the 80's and before.

poshag

I remember reading something in the 80s about how technology was doubling at a rate of once every 100 years, and that by 2050 it would be doubling every 2 days. I guess it depends what you consider by "doubling", but I don't really think that's possible. The world is not all that different in 20 years, other than networked computers. We still drive gasoline cars, don't have really anything for serious space travel/living, etc, and that's in 20 years. It'll be interesting to see if what he says comes true, but I'm very skeptical about that.. it takes action to spur that kind of growth and I'm wondering where it will come from..

I hate to tell you guys, but likely none of this stuff is going to happen. We have hit peak oil production and we are likely looking at the end of the world as we know it. In 10 years, we may be putting on puppet shows in our cold dark houses for entertainment.

If that happens it won't be because we ran out of oil. We've been hearing that for the last 30 years. The same technological prowess that fuels the current exponential advances in communications and biotech will lead to a solution there, although there will probably be a period when oil is really pricey until the next fuel source kicks in.

What is more likely to cause the scenario you describe is what is playing out right now in Iran....it's unlikely we'll stop them from going nuclear and unlikely that we'll stop those nukes from getting to terrorists and inside the U.S.

Enjoy the fun while you can.

Sorry to be a downer.

Milt,

I think there have recently been advances that say the push for growth you are talking about is already on.

Take a look at the X-Prize. They are now offereing several different X-Prizes for advanced development within multiple fields. I think we will see a larger Private market influence.

The same technological prowess that fuels the current exponential advances in communications and biotech will lead to a solution there

Our technological prowess is the result of access to cheap power over the last 100 years. Without cheap power as the base, we quickly recede back to the preindustrial age.

There is no substitute for oil that is as concentrated, easily portable and useful. Think of it as stored solar power. In 100 years, we have burned through an energy source that had been stored up over 100 million years. It cannot be replaced or substituted.

I do believe that it is possible to have a civilization which is based upon renewable energy and nuclear power. However, it would probably take 50 years of concentrated effort to develop this alternate civilization. Think about it, it took over a century to develop the current power and transporation system we have. If oil production has peaked (which I am 100% convinced it has already or will within the next 2 years), we simply will not have time to adjust. At a 7% depletion rate, oil production will be half of current levels in 10 years.

Even if we decide to make the effort, the resources simply will not be there. In the 1960's, America was able to fight a war much larger than Iraq, implement huge new social programs and put men on the moon. We were able to do that because we had the energy resources. Now, we don't have the ability to even maintain our existing infrastructure, much less build an entirely new infrastructure.

In 10 years ... we will be on the way to the Matrix.
In 20 years, we will watch movies .. or experience movies first hand, inside the Matrix.

..seriously, no joke.


Remember to Google then and find out I said it first :D
(well not actually, I am just repeating what someone else said)

You guys should read the book "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil. He proposes that technology growth is exponential and we are currently arriving at the turning point where those exponential returns begin to really take effect. So although it seems like the last ten years may not have had that great a change (although i think a ton has changed since 1996), the furture holds much faster technological development. Its a very interesting book, i think it may be a bit extreme (he says that by the 2030's our bodies will be more non biological than biological, and we will effectively stop, and maybe even reverse, aging. It should be noted that this guy isnt some hack with a bunch of theories, he is the most reputable furturist in the world, and has a good track record based on books he wrote in the 80's and before.

poshag

I posted before I read this post ...
yes, Ray Kurzweil was the one I was referring to ('someone else' in the post above). He says Matrix will be a reality. I mean virtual reality .... which will be a reality.

You guys are all crazy. :)

this reminds me of a Seinfeld episode where Kramer came into Jerry's apartment, all jazzed about the new Millenium. He was thinking that we would be able to beam thoughts to each others brains and stuff. Jerry told him that the new milennium was only 3 years away, not 300.


I do hope that we finally get good quality and widely accepted wireless home theater speakers within the next 10 years. Even that is probably far fetched.

Ten years from now I don't think projectors will be a serious player in Home Theater. By then I think most people will will be using large screen wall mounted display devices. I don't know weather they will be improved versions of the current plasma or LCD technology, or an entirely new type of display, but I think they will be priced low enough to make projectors obsolete for most people.

I have a feeling that projectors will be around as long as there are movie theaters around. (I don't see them disappearing anytime soon)

Many people seem to forget that it's not all about screen size and resolution.

90% of my reasoning for using a front projector in a home theater is to get the same effect as going to a local movie theater (although now we beat the theater in quality :cool: ). Watching a CRT, LCD, DLP TV just doesn't give you the same effect at all (even if your family is talking or on the phone while your watching your movie).

For that reason front projection isn't going anywhere unless they invent a new way to go to the movie theater...

BTW....

Where the hell is that "Virtual Reality" they promised us back in the early 90's? (Damn you Lawnmower Man & Johnny Mnemonic!)

You guys are all crazy. :)



which ideas do you find crazy ? All of them ?

As we speculate, what will the broadcast standard be ten years from now? 2006 was suppose to be the year ATSC dethones NTSC. I don't see it happening. I see a ton of ATSC 'ready' hardware but broadcasting seems pretty much the same to me as it was two if not three years ago.
Does the general public really care? Sure they seem to want it bigger...but better?

Any thoughts?

10 years - we will all be blind from watching too much giant-sized porn

from watching too much giant-sized porn

na, we will still be watching it on the computer, as God intended us to.

In 10 years, I predict movie theaters will be obsolete (unless there's a drastic change).

Home theaters will offer 90% of the moviegoing experience (large screen, excellent audio) and studios will take advantage of VOD (Video On Demand) services that there would be no reason to visit a theater.

Heck, even at this time I very rarely visit movie theaters -- and that's probably going to drop even more when I get my first PJ in a month or so.

Just my 2 cents, I think in 7-8 years 1080P FP will hit the sub-$1000 level that leads to ubiquity. That of course and 60" flat panel TVs for the same money. That'll be the question, 60" 1080P flat panel for a grand or 120" FP... and measily 40" plasmas in the kitchen/bedrooms.

We'll all have HD-DVD/BRD combo players in every room and 1 master cable/sat box with 6ish HD Tuners that feeds HDMI to every room in the house. I see PPV HD flicks at $12-15 a pop (think about mild inflation) and HD-DVD/BRD hard copies around $25. Of course many ppl will watch H.264 compressed XVID or whatever in 1080P from whatever replaces ********** (cheap Chinese subscription servers? Gives 'rogue nation' new definition).

Movie theaters? Only because Hollywood loves to charge us twice, ppl won't wait the 6 month gap before the new blockbuster comes out on next-gen DVD format, they'll still go see The Hobbit and Harry Potter's adolescent twin's misadventures at hogwarts at the local mall, whining about how their 1080P setup at home is better, how lousy $10 popcorn and watered down coke is, but they'll still line up on opening day.

10 Years from now, things will probably have standardized on 1080p. I don't expect THAT big a change - I think a change from government mandated display technologies within the next 10 years is close to impossible in the US. If anything the next-next gen (post Blu-Ray) group may be picking up traction, there may be the inklings of a higher def format (4000p = film resolution) but for the most part, mainstream will be 1080p. Chances are CRTs will be a small part of the low end market, LCDs and Plasmas still around, most likely, OLEDs and LED lit DLP, LCD and LCOS quite likely. If anyone champions a new ultra-high def format in that timeframe it would most likely be Japan.

I think LCD will no longer be a low contrast technology - we've already seen demos of 1,000,000:1 LCD contrast ratios (claimed) at CES 2006, so I dont doubt we'll have high contrast LCDs in the mainstream. If this happens, the need for LCOS (and the added cost) will make it drop off the radar. High end large scale non projection displays will probably still be at the high end - mainstream 106" flat panel displays, maybe? Maybe 3 chip 1080p DLPs will be mainstream by then - if LED lit DLPs dont make 3 chip obsolete, that is.

I doubt 3d will have made an impact in 10 years. For one theres no content. For another all existing technologies have limited viewing spaces. Commercialization of a radical new technology takes a long time, I don't think we'll be there in 10 years.

Speaking of LCDs. In Ten years, what...?

http://www.lcdtvbuyingguide.com/lcd-news.php?newsId=45

I was watching an old show on tv with my 12 y.o. nephew. Before cutting to a commercial the announcer said, "we'll be right back, don't touch that dial." With a straight face my nephew asked me what that meant.


I guess he didn't know TV's before remote controlls had dials.

Actually, they had buttons before they had remote control!

All I want 10 years from now is to get a 1920x1080 native resolution projector for less than $3,000. I'm still using a 1024x768 400:1 LCD projector with a DIY screen since 2002 and I'm happy. Problem is that the projector is starting to fail and I'm out of money to buy a new projector at this moment :(

My guess is 1080p front projection at < $3000 will happen in < 5 years, and theres a chance it will happen in < 3 years.

I cling firmly to the hope that in ten years, cable cards will be fully functional, although they will be called something else.

Speaking of LCDs. In Ten years, what...?

http://www.lcdtvbuyingguide.com/lcd-news.php?newsId=45

Does the forklift come with it?

ted

My guess is 1080p front projection at < $3000 will happen in < 5 years, and theres a chance it will happen in < 3 years.
My guess is it will definitely happen in 3 years, and most likely in 18 months, in the LCD realm. DLP will take another year.

My guess is it will definitely happen in 3 years, and most likely in 18 months, in the LCD realm. DLP will take another year.

Actually, if some inet sources are to be believed, we should see LCD 1080p FP as early as this fall and surely at CES in January. Chips are already in production and used in some RPTVS. In fact, 1080p DLP and LCOS RPTVs are springing up at lots of retailers too.
Now, the real question is, without the source material will consumers flock to them?

Ten years from now, 2016, we might finally see the death of 480i broadcasts.

2016: 1080p will have almost full support from the upper low end devices.

2016: The high end stuff will be quad HDTV, being fed by somthiing like superbit blu ray. Although there will be almost no quad HDTV content, it will still be a huge selling point.

2016: The Playstation 4 will be a year or two from ending it's successful run and rumors of the Playstation 5 fully supporting quad HD will be annouced. While Playstation4 (2011) was claimed to support quad HD, only a handfull of games did, yet Xbox 3 (540?) fully supported quad HD in 2010.

Movie theaters will be 50% digital 50% film. 50% of movies made will be shot in HD video.

I think in 10 years, projectors will all but replace TVs. Someone will make an uberzoom(TM) lens and we'll be getting 100 inch images from 3 feet away. Also, something will be done about ambient lighting,not to mention incredibly cheap prices. Take my sharp xg old projector. 100:1 contrast, 600 lumens, MSRP... 10,000 dollars. Now days you can buy a 100:1 contrast 600 lumen projector for around 500 or so dollars.

In 10 years, I predict movie theaters will be obsolete (unless there's a drastic change).

Home theaters will offer 90% of the moviegoing experience (large screen, excellent audio) and studios will take advantage of VOD (Video On Demand) services that there would be no reason to visit a theater.

Heck, even at this time I very rarely visit movie theaters -- and that's probably going to drop even more when I get my first PJ in a month or so.

When you think about it, theaters really do need a face lift. My neighbor just complained to me last night it cost her $9.00 for the twilight show. Concessions are outrageous.
Yep, the studios better wise up.

I see about a movie a year, and that will drop even further once I build my dedicated HT in a year or so.

Though we may have 1080p LCDs in the fall, I doubt they'll start at <$3K. Probably somewhere in the low $4Ks would be my guess (but it's obviously just a guess).

A decade from now, the 3-D movie technology that Lucas and others are working on for feature films will become a standard (if you opt to watch in that method) and HD will be a thing of the past, as some other standard will be the new way to go.

Media will probably not even exist, as you just have everything loaded into a virtual space that you own where things are stored (hopefully a backup too!). Everything from music to videos will all be digital, digital transferred via wires (or wireless) and obsolete discs (like HD-DVD, SACD, etc) will be a long forgotten thing of the past.


I'm gonna bet you're wrong on both counts. There will certainly be both regular 2d projectors and physical media. "3d" whatever it means will take a lot longer to come, and then even more time to get inside our living rooms. As for physical media, people want to own it, and to backup it, and not least to pirate it.

You guys need to quit thinking bigger and start thinking smaller

Oakley has an mp3 player sunglass unit
10 years I'm sure they'll incorporate video into it.
if yuo can fit music in a pair of sunglasses, you know there's gonna be some serious video coming out in smaller units.
which leads right into virtual reality and chip implants.
I think you're right-on. Personal-video products will be all the rage and in 10 years I'd predict VR to start becoming mainstream. Once VR takes off the rest of the technology will be for esoterics and throw-backs.

I think in 10 years projection TV will still be big but I agree still somewhat of a niche. I don't see them going beyond 1080p because media won't be availble for any higher - though rumors of such developments will be flying around the AVSForum.

Further miniaturization will rule the day though, and even more so 15-20 years out.

Who needs a decade when stuff like this pops up all the time?
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=688587

How about 3 years from now?

Well, FWIW, here's my vision of where we'll be in ten years.

We'll all wear long flowing silver robes, have flying cars, and eating food will be replaced by swallowing a pill. We'll have 3D Holographic Imaging, but it will be limited to CGA resolution and colors. We'll have direct inject sound, which beams the sensation of sound directly into your brain, bypassing your ears. This is necessary because many of the baby boom generation will be disembodied heads in jars, and the fluid in the jar severely distorts any incoming sound. Drugs will be replaced by a metallic orb which gets passed around amongst friends and which gets you high merely by holding it. Euthanasia will be common, but the method of death won't be standardized, as most euthanasia companies will conform to the HEAD-DEAD standard, while Sony uses the proprietary Death-Ray method. Space travel will have been banned as too many people came back with aliens embedded in their chests. The TV series "Lost" will conclude that year when the Lost gang discovers a group of seven castaways, Michael kills Gilligan, and both groups are finally able to get off the island when Locke, with the help of the Professor, builds a boat made from discarded coconut shells and Apollo bar wrappers. (After 53 years of coconut cream pies, there's a ton of leftover coconut shells.) And it will be a sad time, because the world will be ruled by DAMN DIRTY APES!

But then again, I could be wrong. ;)

Mike

The world is not all that different in 20 years, other than networked computers. ..

20 years ago IBM unveils the PC Convertible, the first laptop computer.

20 years before that BCPL (Basic Combined Programming Language) is designed by Martin Richards of the University of Cambridge. The design of BCPL strongly influenced B, which in turn influenced C. C is now the language of choice for systems programming.

20 years before that In Mexico, Guillermo González Camarena (1917–1965), who had invented an early color television transmission system for public airwaves, sent his first color transmission from his lab in the offices of The Mexican League of Radio Experiments in Lucerna St. #1, in Mexico City. The video signal was transmitted at a frequency of 115 MHz. and the audio in the 40 metre band.

20 years before that was the world's first public demonstration of a working television system.

A lot can happen in 20 years.

10 years from now, projectors will be low tech, cheap and ho-hum. All the rage in large screen homes theaters will be OLED screens, which you will be able to custom order in the size you want to fit the space you have. It'll be printed on a sound conductive flat wall speaker system providing front left, right and center sound.

It's bezel will be custom ordered to fit your decor and it will contain extremely low-voltage electronics enabling it to receive full resolution HD video and high fidelity sound wirelessly. It will stay powered on in constant low voltage power (if you choose), which will render a beautiful view of artwork that you choose to display by subscription.

These will initially be sold through high-end HT stores and through interior design studios. Eventually, prices will come down as they become as common to order over the Net as custom window blinds are today and Krasmuzic will still be defending InFocus as the best HT projector company that ever was (even though InFocus will no longer exist as a company, but only as a brand). :p

I wouldn't consider any of those advancements really "a lot". Perhaps the invention of the TV, and the computer. Interesting regarding the programming language history.. most refer to Fortran and ALGOL as the parent languages.

I really don't see any massive change in technology since the personal computer was invented. Only computing power has changed, but that's to be expected, and not revolutionary. (i.e. it's nothing new)

The next 10 years I see as being the time for developing alternative fuel vehicles, given the skyrocketing prices. They can only last so long before people choose other options, and the gov't provides them. Of course, the demand will be there, but nobody will manufacturer products for 20 years.

I wouldn't consider any of those advancements really "a lot". Perhaps the invention of the TV, and the computer. Interesting regarding the programming language history.. most refer to Fortran and ALGOL as the parent languages.

I really don't see any massive change in technology since the personal computer was invented. Only computing power has changed, but that's to be expected, and not revolutionary. (i.e. it's nothing new)

The next 10 years I see as being the time for developing alternative fuel vehicles, given the skyrocketing prices. They can only last so long before people choose other options, and the gov't provides them. Of course, the demand will be there, but nobody will manufacturer products for 20 years.

Being the cynic that you are, I won't try to convince you that you don't see the forest because of the trees.

FYI - I never said ALGOL or Fortran weren't parent languages. However, C is the most pervasive programming language in use today and was derived from BCPL, not ALGOL or Fortran. The initial development of C occurred at AT&T Bell Labs between 1969 and 1973. It was named "C" because many of its features were derived from an earlier language called "B", which was a stripped down version of the BCPL programming language.

Though I'm a cynic, I don't backdown from a healthy discussion/debate, either. This doesn't have anything to do with the scope of the argument (forest vs trees analogy), but everything to do with timeframe (you've never been on the other side of the forest, and in fact, nobody has, but you can guess based on the trees on this side). But I digress from that flawed analogy..

I guess the question is what is "significant". IMO, I would have simply chosen other events rather than a modification to an existing major concept (laptop), a programming language that wasn't even one of the first dozen or so created, and improvement to another existing invention (color TV). However, the last item you mentioned (TV) is quite significant (IMO of course), as are inventions of the airplane, automobile, nuclear power, computers, and networking, etc. I think you were more going for inventions that happened to be in 20 year increments, though (looking back on your post). Fair enough.

Regarding C.. no doubt, C was derived from B -> BCPL, but they have more ancestors (CPL->ALGOL->Fortran) which was my point (that the invention of C was just a logical progression, but no breakthrough). For reference (http://www.oreilly.com/news/graphics/prog_lang_poster.pdf)..

miltimj,

From your avatar you appear to be a fairly young fellow, so I assume 20 years ago you were still in elementary school. 20 years ago I had just graduated college, so I have experienced the past 20 all in my adult life. I don't mention this to be a snob or imply your age disqualifies you from a valid opinion, only to illustrate why we may differ in our assessment of the impact of changes in technology in the past 20 years.

I agree that most of the tech advances of the past twenty haven't been very sexy, but they have changed our lives in a HUGE way. For example:

20 years ago very few people had answering machines, and cell phones were still pretty much sci-fi to the average person. If you wanted to contact someone you telephoned them, and hoped they were home to receive your call. If not, you were out of luck, because there was no e-mail. Without cell phones if your car broke down you had to hope someone woul see you and would stop and help.

20 years the airlines had just de-regulated, and the economies of scale in aircraft production had not yet kicked in. Flying was the pervue only of the well-healed, and international travel was so expensive that the best an average person could manage was one overseas trip their whole life.

20 years ago when you looked for a job you sat down at a typewriter and typed out you resume, hoping not to make any mistakes that would require you to start over. Then you took it down to kinkos to have copies made. Then you typed each cover letter individually. To find the jobs you had to look in the Sunday papers of the cities you were interested in. There was no Monster.com

20 years ago there were at best about 30 cable channels, and the big three still dominated the TV landscape. Many people had VCRs by then, but they were so cumbersome that virtually no-one used them to time-shift. There was no pausing of live-TV, no search function by actor or director, no on-line program listings. To find out what was on TV you read the TV-Guide. If you missed you favorite show, that was it until re-run season hit. And if you missed it in re-runs, sorry, no DVD box sets or bit-torrent.

20 years ago whe it was time to pay the bills you sat down with a stack of bills and your check-book and stamps and went to town. No on-line banking or automatic bill pay. Direct deposit was just getting started, and most people still had to take their paychecks to the bank on friday.

20 years ago PCs had not yet entered the workforce in large numbers. Designs were done by hand with pencil and paper and given to a draftsman to make drawings. Memos were hand-written and given to a secretary to type. Everything was filed on paper in file cabinets.

20 years ago you got maybe 3 NFL games a week and 2 college football games a week. If you were a fan of the Packers and lived in Dallas you NEVER got to watch your team play. The best you got was a small writeup in the Sunday paper that mentioned the score and gave a brief synopsis of the game. And a bit of coverage on ESPN.

20 years ago if Dan Rather or a NY Times reporter had broken a bogus news story we would have had no way to prove they were bogus, and the story would've held up as truth. (Kind of makes you wonder what bogus news stories made it through the previous 40 years.)

20 years ago there was no MRI, no epidurals, and cancer, HIV, Parkinson's, etc drugs were much less effective.

20 years ago if I wanted to find out if a movie was any good i had only Siskel and Ebert and Gene Shallit's opinions to go by. If I wanted to find out if a product was any good I bought consumer reports and hoped they did a review, or I asked a friend who owned the product. If my TV had a problem my only recourse was a repairman, as there were no TV forums to peruse.

20 years ago the biggest TVs were about 40" and were so huge most folks never even considered buying them. Movies were rented on VHS tapes cropped to 4:3, and watched mostly in mono sound. There were no commentary tracks or alternate endings, and you had to rewind when you were done.

Photographs were taken on film, and if you wanted high-quality prints you waited a week to get them developed.

I could go on and on, (I know, too late :D) but my point is that the advent of always on high-speed internet access has by itself had a profound impact on everyone's lives, not to mention the impact of cell-phones, laptops, TIVO, satellite TV, digital compression, gene-therapy, etc.

Mike

They have cell phones in IOWA? ( Just kidding)

The amazing thing is all this is 24/7 coast to coast, and beyond. My neighbor called via his cell phone a while back...from Panama. Complete with a 'cell phone' picture in my e-mail minutes later.

Nice missive Mike. The next ten years should be equally exciting.

In ten years time projectors as we know the in our HT's will be long gone. If OLED doesn't show, we will have Laser projector heads built into the screen housing, drop the screen down and the LP fires up.....Nirvana!

Hi, Mike.

From your avatar you appear to be a fairly young fellow, so I assume 20 years ago you were still in elementary school. 20 years ago I had just graduated college, so I have experienced the past 20 all in my adult life. I don't mention this to be a snob or imply your age disqualifies you from a valid opinion, only to illustrate why we may differ in our assessment of the impact of changes in technology in the past 20 years.I guess it depends what you do with 20 years.. Though you are accurate that I was in elementary school 20 years ago, I had also moved 5 times by that age. Four years later (16 yrs ago), I was the #2 contributor (behind my dad) to building a large house from the ground up. I suppose we all have different life experiences.. I met someone in college who had never traveled outside the state... Wisconsin is 10 miles away!
I agree that most of the tech advances of the past twenty haven't been very sexy, but they have changed our lives in a HUGE way.I'm not denying some significant changes have occurred; I'm just questioning what is a level of significance to be considered a huge innovation. IMO, something along the lines of the cotton gin, plow, gunpowder, internal combustion engine, etc, are significant. Those are what I'm curious about, at least. I already know it's possible to have a full wall LCD panel (or similar technology). What I haven't seen is a practical, cost-effective, and safe alternative fuel technology available yet. (If there were, it'd be here by now, though there are promising options, of course). This is just an example, though.
20 years ago very few people had answering machines, and cell phones were still pretty much sci-fi to the average person. If you wanted to contact someone you telephoned them, and hoped they were home to receive your call. If not, you were out of luck, because there was no e-mail. Without cell phones if your car broke down you had to hope someone woul see you and would stop and help.Excellent point about the cell phones.. definitely could be considered a major advance. Something unique. Regarding e-mail, this is just a result of one of my few, significant inventions/innovations I mentioned in a previous post: networking (to include the Internet, of course).
20 years the airlines had just de-regulated, and the economies of scale in aircraft production had not yet kicked in. Flying was the pervue only of the well-healed, and international travel was so expensive that the best an average person could manage was one overseas trip their whole life.Again, airplanes being one of my examples of significant inventions. Making flying affordable is more of a business process and infrastructure solution, not a major innovation. Creating the space shuttle and flying to the moon, or launching a space station (if it works :D) is significant; paying $30M to get you into space isn't. Practical and efficient space travel for the average individual will be a breakthrough.
20 years ago when you looked for a job you sat down at a typewriter and typed out you resume, hoping not to make any mistakes that would require you to start over. Then you took it down to kinkos to have copies made. Then you typed each cover letter individually. To find the jobs you had to look in the Sunday papers of the cities you were interested in. There was no Monster.comAgreed; no Monster.com.. but that was a result of.. networking. 20 years ago, though "in elementary school", I was typing papers on a computer, printing, and saving files to disk. I'm not sure why an adult couldn't do the same..
20 years ago there were at best about 30 cable channels, and the big three still dominated the TV landscape. Many people had VCRs by then, but they were so cumbersome that virtually no-one used them to time-shift. There was no pausing of live-TV, no search function by actor or director, no on-line program listings. To find out what was on TV you read the TV-Guide. If you missed you favorite show, that was it until re-run season hit. And if you missed it in re-runs, sorry, no DVD box sets or bit-torrent.DVRs are a byproduct/type of another on my list.. computers.
20 years ago whe it was time to pay the bills you sat down with a stack of bills and your check-book and stamps and went to town. No on-line banking or automatic bill pay. Direct deposit was just getting started, and most people still had to take their paychecks to the bank on friday.Online banking.. result of networking/Internet.
20 years ago PCs had not yet entered the workforce in large numbers. Designs were done by hand with pencil and paper and given to a draftsman to make drawings. Memos were hand-written and given to a secretary to type. Everything was filed on paper in file cabinets.Though CAD was not common, many other day to day tasks were accomplished via computers. Microsoft is 30 yrs old, the first popular spreadsheet program (Visicalc) is 27 yrs old, as well as the Ada programming language, heavily used in the government sector. Though not in many people's homes at that time, they were certainly pervasive in businesses (though perhaps not very many small businesses).
20 years ago you got maybe 3 NFL games a week and 2 college football games a week. If you were a fan of the Packers and lived in Dallas you NEVER got to watch your team play. The best you got was a small writeup in the Sunday paper that mentioned the score and gave a brief synopsis of the game. And a bit of coverage on ESPN.Good selection of cable channels I would hardly call a major advancement. It's just an "uphill in the snow both ways" story..
20 years ago if Dan Rather or a NY Times reporter had broken a bogus news story we would have had no way to prove they were bogus, and the story would've held up as truth. (Kind of makes you wonder what bogus news stories made it through the previous 40 years.)Networking/Internet... a lovely thing. Online newspapers.. just a progression of the main innovation.
20 years ago there was no MRI, no epidurals, and cancer, HIV, Parkinson's, etc drugs were much less effective.Agreed - many great medical advancements have been made. Though many are also far overblown for marketing's sake. I wish I had a reference, but I read an article last year where there was a study done specifically to see how the initial claims of "scientific medical studies" fared in retrospect (5+ yrs later), and more than 50% were patently false initial claims.
20 years ago if I wanted to find out if a movie was any good i had only Siskel and Ebert and Gene Shallit's opinions to go by. If I wanted to find out if a product was any good I bought consumer reports and hoped they did a review, or I asked a friend who owned the product. If my TV had a problem my only recourse was a repairman, as there were no TV forums to peruse. See cable TV comment above..
20 years ago the biggest TVs were about 40" and were so huge most folks never even considered buying them. Movies were rented on VHS tapes cropped to 4:3, and watched mostly in mono sound. There were no commentary tracks or alternate endings, and you had to rewind when you were done.I suppose optical media could be considered significant, as opposed to magnetic media (significant in its own right), given their relative reliability and storage capacity benefits.
Photographs were taken on film, and if you wanted high-quality prints you waited a week to get them developed.Digitial photography.. I agree, a huge advancement, and a reason why most people have more pictures than they know what to do with now... (myself included)
I could go on and on, (I know, too late :D) but my point is that the advent of always on high-speed internet access has by itself had a profound impact on everyone's lives, not to mention the impact of cell-phones, laptops, TIVO, satellite TV, digital compression, gene-therapy, etc.Agreed, and precisely why I mentioned that in my list. Life will certainly be different/better? in 20 years, but I wonder how much significantly better. 10 years ago wasn't so different from what it is now.. only progressive increases in the same concepts (computer power, projector quality). I'm just skeptical (go figure) that we'll have a huge breakthrough 10 years from now. As I've alluded to, I hope that breakthrough is in fuel technology more than anything.

I'd have to agree with Tim; indeed I sometimes look around me and wonder "what happened to the future?"

When I was a kid, the future was a wondrous thing, with promises of artifical intelligence, space travel, startling medical advancements, and so on. Sure there was justified apprehension about the Cold War but in general, people expected the human race to continue advancing technologically, and intellectually.

I think people in the 60's and 70's would have been surprised and disappointed to see how things really played out. Space travel was virtually abandoned. Medicine has not leapfrogged forward by any means and indeed is bankrupt and barely hanging on in much of the world. People are less educated and literate than they used to be. Science and critical thinking are increasingly rejected in favor of religion.

The enlightened and hopeful future that was once a foregone conclusion now sometimes looks like a modern-day version of the Dark Ages, with much of the world actually going backwards. Of course, I know it's not really as bad as all that, I'm just being a bit melodramatic! :) My point was that I don't think we, the human race, have advanced much in the last 30-40 years. There's not been a fundamental shift or leap forward.

In my opinion the "Information Age", in the grand scheme of things, was only an incremental change. The human race is still living under the same basic paradigm as we were 100 years ago.

No, the next big leap forward is going to be nanotechnology. This is the invention that will change everything, and more profoundly than gunpowder or the cotton gin to be sure. Everything's going to shaken up and turned on its head including the entire world's economic system, when nanotechnology comes of age.

No, the next big leap forward is going to be nanotechnology. This is the invention that will change everything, and more profoundly than gunpowder or the cotton gin to be sure. Everything's going to shaken up and turned on its head including the entire world's economic system, when nanotechnology comes of age.

Maybe that'll be the piece of the energy puzzle to be solved that takes care of everything. Fuel made of nanoparticles that assemble more and more nanoparticles. You pull up to a service station, load in some water and the nanoparticles go to work disassembling the molecules into pure hyrodren fuel and dump the oxygen molecules back into the environment.

Next really BIG thing will be homes self powered by their own hydrogen fuel cell, possibly reselling excess energy back to the electric grid. I can see it now, new homes being built with a hydrogen storage tank where a truck will pull up and refill it every 3 months or so. Hank Hill will be making the delivery, of course! :D

"I sell nanotechnology and nanotechnology accessories."

Maybe that'll be the piece of the energy puzzle to be solved that takes care of everything. Fuel made of nanoparticles that assemble more and more nanoparticles. You pull up to a service station, load in some water and the nanoparticles go to work disassembling the molecules into pure hyrodren fuel and dump the oxygen molecules back into the environment.

Next really BIG thing will be homes self powered by their own hydrogen fuel cell, possibly reselling excess energy back to the electric grid. I can see it now, new homes being built with a hydrogen storage tank where a truck will pull up and refill it every 3 months or so. Hank Hill will be making the delivery, of course! :D

Here's a rather clever insight to the future. If it could only be so simple. A nanoparticle reactor could just be what the next sci-fi movie is based on.

The hydrogen aspect has been around for decades. The Nazis were using it in WW2. Good food for thought, dd.

Next really BIG thing will be homes self powered by their own hydrogen fuel cell, possibly reselling excess energy back to the electric grid. I can see it now, new homes being built with a hydrogen storage tank where a truck will pull up and refill it every 3 months or so. Hank Hill will be making the delivery, of course! :D


It's already in the works! I've done some work developing this (patent protected even) about 5 years back. It's still got a long way to go by way of increasing efficienies in the PEM fuel cell - and won't see mass production as long as coal & oil is cheap (which it is, relatively speaking). It could be done today, but is expensive.

No truck deliveries necessary either! A reformer will convert natural gas (or any hydrocarbon based fuel) into 99.99% pure hydrogen. Also, you could take an efficient solar panel or wind turbine converting distilled H20 into hydrogen, store it in a tank, and use the fuel cell to convert the hydrogen back to water + electricity during times of no wind or sun....whole communities based on this could sell it back to the grid as well (when it's cheaper to produce than the grid power) and become a virtual power station.

It's only a matter of time, well as long as OPEC allows it of course!

No truck deliveries necessary either! A reformer will convert natural gas (or any hydrocarbon based fuel) into 99.99% pure hydrogen. Also, you could take an efficient solar panel or wind turbine converting distilled H20 into hydrogen, store it in a tank, and use the fuel cell to convert the hydrogen back to water + electricity during times of no wind or sun....whole communities based on this could sell it back to the grid as well (when it's cheaper to produce than the grid power) and become a virtual power station.

It's only a matter of time, well as long as OPEC allows it of course!

The whole plan would include taking the hydrocarbons out of the equation. Water and 'green' electricity will do the trick. Heck, plants have been doing it for eons. It's as simple as converting wind and solar (free energy) into electricity to extract the hydrogen from the oxygen and then store the hydrogen for fuel. It's been done for decades on a small scale. The best part-zero toxic emmissions.
(But, I gotta admit a nonoparticle reactor sounds truly 21st century.)

The whole plan would include taking the hydrocarbons out of the equation. Water and 'green' electricity will do the trick. Heck, plants have been doing it for eons. It's as simple as converting wind and solar (free energy) into electricity to extract the hydrogen from the oxygen and then store the hydrogen for fuel. It's been done for decades on a small scale. The best part-zero toxic emmissions.

Ideally yes. Up here in Seattle we need really efficient / breakthrough solar panels for this - which are coming soon from what I here, but until then a reformer is a necessary evil. Wind is nice but nobody wants in there backyard. Vashon Island could be completely isolated from the grid but the proposal got shot down for this very reason. You'd be set though in sunny San Diego with the current solar technology!

(But, I gotta admit a nonoparticle reactor sounds truly 21st century.)
That's where most of the patent work focused on, carbon nanotubes...and why I got a chucle from the ironic post about fuel cells and nanotechnology :D Nothing novel about fuel cells and hydrogen, but novel ways of making them significantly more efficient is. ;)

Mike

A research team in Sydney has created molecules that mimic those in plants which harvest light and power life on Earth.

http://www.physorg.com/news76344249.html

The Book 'Singularity is near"
http://singularity.com/
shows how things would shape up in 10-15 yrs from now.

Sonisame

I'll be 10 years older and on the projector front you'll probably be able to buy 1080p units for $300.Don't think there will be a major leap in that time more of refining whats avaliable now the steps will be small.

thought this looked cool

http://sympatico-msn-ca.com.com/2300-1044_3-6120100-1.html?tag=ne.gall.pg

thought this looked cool

http://sympatico-msn-ca.com.com/2300-1044_3-6120100-1.html?tag=ne.gall.pg

looked so 21st century 'til I read this part:
"holds the main electronic components by wooden strips on the vertical sides of the screen. "

why wouldn't it be 21'st century? like the sentence said the wood is there for aesthetics and to hide the electrical components driving the screen. It could be anything.

It could be anything.

Exactly. Carbon fiber would be a little more modern than that old stuff they used to churn butter with in the 19th century! Nothing wrong with wood, just makes it look a lot less high tech!

In 25 years we will plug our brains into a matrix of simulated environment for work or entertainment. No need to travel you're there whenever you plug in. Today online gaming is a crude precursor of where we are going.

You don't need eyeballs or ears because of direct brain stimulation. Much cheaper and more effective without the physical claptrap like projectors or screens. Takes very little energy or natural resources and generates no pollution.

Most employment will revolve around generating and supporting this pseudo-simulated environment as well as the multi-terahertz global communications grid that it requires..

Well, gentleman, the future may arrive early for me. I'm now blessed with some direct feedback on the HD81. Granted, I have NOT seen one as of yet. Nor does it fall in my 'strike' price. But, if it is all my 9" CRT 'only' amigo attests too, maybe just maybe, a decade will be closer to next year for me? My viewing invitation awaits.

10 years? HA!

All bets are off if OLED makes BIG panels. Imagine, 100" screens, 1/2 inch thick, <1ms response times, and 1,000,000 to 1 CR. mmmmm good.

Well, gentleman, the future may arrive early for me. I'm now blessed with some direct feedback on the HD81. Granted, I have NOT seen one as of yet. Nor does it fall in my 'strike' price. But, if it is all my 9" CRT 'only' amigo attests too, maybe just maybe, a decade will be closer to next year for me? My viewing invitation awaits.

Now comes the JVC RS1. My neighbor to the east has one on order. I can hardly wait for an invitation.

Now comes the JVC RS1. My neighbor to the east has one on order. I can hardly wait for an invitation.

Too bad it's nearly 2x the cutoff for this forum. Sounds like an impressive unit though. Should certainly be here in less than a decade!

Too bad it's nearly 2x the cutoff for this forum. Sounds like an impressive unit though. Should certainly be here in less than a decade!

Which decade? How long is it going to take? I keep reading posts where other members already got theirs. :confused: :( :mad:

My biggest hope in 10 years from now there will be movies that are worth watching on our new ultra HD wireless projectors.

Hello:

I really think that wireless connectivity will be an area for real improvement.

A world where your TV, projector, speakers, etc. are all wireless (except for the power cord) would be great in setting up your home systems.

Splotto

Splotto,

Wireless HDMI is here now.

Gefen press release (http://www.gefen.com/kvm/news/ISE-07-06.jsp)
Radiospire products (http://www.radiospire.com/?page=Products)
Phillips announcement (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36787) Amimon chip level technology (http://www.amimon.com/)
Avocent MPX-1000 (http://www.connectivity.avocent.com/products/emerge/mpx1000.asp?WT.srch=1&gclid=CLyOysSfkIsCFSCzgAodyF3rSA)

Now, there's still the question of inter-operability, price, and high quality self powered speakers, but consumers clearly want this, and I think we're on the verge.

Jonathan

I looked at the Avocent stuff at Ramelectronics...it's a pricey proposition, at least a little more than an HDMI cable.

http://www.ramelectronics.net/HTML/Avocent_MPX1000HD.html

Splotto,

Wireless HDMI is here now.

Gefen press release (http://www.gefen.com/kvm/news/ISE-07-06.jsp)
Radiospire products (http://www.radiospire.com/?page=Products)
Phillips announcement (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36787) Amimon chip level technology (http://www.amimon.com/)
Avocent MPX-1000 (http://www.connectivity.avocent.com/products/emerge/mpx1000.asp?WT.srch=1&gclid=CLyOysSfkIsCFSCzgAodyF3rSA)

Now, there's still the question of inter-operability, price, and high quality self powered speakers, but consumers clearly want this, and I think we're on the verge.

Jonathan

It's out there. Very expensive.

I am looking forward to affordable wireless HT's. :-)

Splotto

This MSRP on the Gefen product is about $700 for the transmitter / receiver pair. There are already sites listing it below MSRP and it's just been released. While much more expensive than a 50' HDMI cable from monoprice, it's not as insanely expensive as the Avocent stuff. Gefen is also known for their quality and reliability.

For the non-DIY-home-reno / non-AVS-forum-reading folks, plunking down under $700 for a wireless product instead of tearing up walls and ceilings plus spending over $300 for a monster-of-an-HDMI cable, seems like a pretty compelling solution.

Now that there are chipsets out from a couple of sources, I think it's only a couple of product genrations before it's included in everything, just as HDMI switching is now becoming ubiquious even in mid-level AVR's.

However, competing flavours and interoperability could delay the device level universal integration longer than that. In that case, I believe the 3rd party add-on market will come to the rescue at prices much less than we're seeing for these first generation products.

Jonathan

Well the 'what if' bug struck this weekend.

I'm enjoying my HT so much now that I have BD/HDDVD, an image that easily eclipses what I see at my local cinema, I have to wonder where theaters will be in ten years. Add hi speed HD streaming video, and who needs to leave home to see a first quality film?
About the only benefit to going to the theater is to see new releases and/or a night out.
Could the fate of the multiplex follow the drive-in?

In the future, we will have leaders and presidents who are robots....oh wait :eek:

All I want to see in 10 years (hopefully less) is a $999 1080p LCD/LCOS with 2000 calibrated, no foolin' lumens shining from a LED bulb with 5000:1 or greater measured screen contrast.

'nuff said ;)

All I want to see in 10 years (hopefully less) is a $999 1080p LCD/LCOS with 2000 calibrated, no foolin' lumens shining from a LED bulb with 5000:1 or greater measured screen contrast.

'nuff said ;)

PM me in ten years and I'll dig my 1080p 2000lumen LED 5000:1 out of the closet and ship it to you as I unroll my OLED Tapestry 2.35:1 format 140" screen just in time to watch USC win another Championship bowl! ;) ;)

I agree with reconlabtech (except for the USC part, of course) $1000 will buy a bright 1080P projector in a few years. Some of the real projector technology advances will probably be in screens. Daytime viewing from inexpensive screens are what I want to see.

Jim

Another option for 10 years hence should be laser based projection for less than $2000 with 1080p resolution.

A workable laser projector would solve nearly every outstanding issue in front projection.

Assuming a set of colored lasers could draw the image, front projectors would become ludicrously simple in construction, and therefore highly reliable and cheap.

No more bulb, no more imaging elements like LCD panels, DLP chips, or LCOS panels.

Since a laser can be switched off for black, you'd get CRT-like black levels to boot.

The only parts would be input ports, video processing chips, the laser(s) and some optics.

No fans, no moving parts, no nuttin'

That's what I want to see in 10 years or less.

PS- whether it's LED or laser light sources, read my lips- NO SPINNING WHEELS :D
(or any moving part)

Another option for 10 years hence should be laser based projection for less than $2000 with 1080p resolution.

A workable laser projector would solve nearly every outstanding issue in front projection.

Assuming a set of colored lasers could draw the image, front projectors would become ludicrously simple in construction, and therefore highly reliable and cheap.

No more bulb, no more imaging elements like LCD panels, DLP chips, or LCOS panels.

Since a laser can be switched off for black, you'd get CRT-like black levels to boot.

The only parts would be input ports, video processing chips, the laser(s) and some optics.

No fans, no moving parts, no nuttin'

That's what I want to see in 10 years or less.

PS- whether it's LED or laser light sources, read my lips- NO SPINNING WHEELS :D
(or any moving part)

There must be a prototype somewhere by now. Can you link us up to more info?

PM me in ten years and I'll dig my 1080p 2000lumen LED 5000:1 out of the closet and ship it to you as I unroll my OLED Tapestry 2.35:1 format 140" screen just in time to watch USC win another Championship bowl! ;) ;)

Ten years huh?
Speaking of flat panels, Sammy just released a 70" LED backlit LCD with a claimed 500000 to 1 CR. Hardly a roll up fabric but here now, today...in Korea.

I don't see projectors going away for truly big screen applications. I doubt any direct view technology will become inexpensive and reliable enough to give you a 100" or bigger screen anytime soon. Projectors also have the advantage of being easy to hide when not in use so you can easily convert any room into a theater.

For smaller screens cost will drop and technology will evolve but the basics won't change much.

Expect more bandwidth using fiber and additional satellite capacity. This will lead to more HD content.

For the last 30 years I've been dreaming of a laser based projection system using a red, green and blue laser scanned on a screen. The lack of a bright blue laser has been the limiting factor in making this a reality. I can see this being overcome now and if the cost can be driven down I think it could be the projection technology of choice. It should be bright enough to overcome the ambient light problem, it eliminates the limited life lamps we use today, and there would be no need to color wheels so there would be no rainbow effect.

The cost of all this technology will continue to drop so more people will be able to afford it.

As we begin experiencing more pain from peak oil we will all be inclined to spend more time at home so entertainment systems will become even more popular. Why fly or drive to a vacation spot when you can visit without leaving home? This may even bleed over to our work. Telecommuting from within a home theater with a big bright screen can surly be as effective as attending a meeting in person.

I got to thinkin'...

How will we look back on our current PJs ten years from now?



A bit more than 10 years, but how about a 100", 7,680 x 4,320 pixel screen that you sit 1 meter from? I just ran across this in EETimes this morning and thought you folks might like to see what your kids will be buying.

NHK demos key component systems of 8K by 4K television

But will consumers want system that could take decades to develop?

By Yoshiko Hara

Tokyo — The people at the Japan Broadcasting Corp. see their 8K x 4K ultrahighresolution broadcasting, which they have labeled Super Hi-Vision, as the next generation of consumer television. Now they have taken a step toward realizing that vision by demonstrating working prototypes of key component systems.

But don’t start saving up for a new set yet. It might be a few decades, give or take several years, before the technology makes it to market. And the breakneck pace at which communications, broadcasting and information technologies are transforming themselves leaves a question hanging over the whole enterprise:

Twenty or more years from now, will consumers want it?

Still, the specs are impressive. Super Hi-Vision’s resolution is 7,680 x 4,320 pixels—16 times that of today’s 1,920 x 1,080-pixel HDTV. Japan Broadcasting (NHK), the nation’s public broadcaster, has demonstrated it at several venues over the past two years, ranging from the 2005 Aichi World Exposition in Japan to NAB2006 in Las Vegas, IBC 2006 in Amsterdam and CEATEC 2006 in Makuhari, Japan. At those shows, NHK used large screens—on the order of 450 and 600 inches diagonal.

“We’ve been demonstrating Super Hi-Vision on large screens to show its high image quality, so people might have thought that the system is to be used at a big public event only. No, it isn’t,” said Kenkichi Tanioka, director general of NHK Science and Technical Research Laboratories. “NHK is a TV broadcaster.

Our real challenge is how to deliver this wonderful quality content to each and every home.”

But look at the long-range picture, said Reiji Asakura, digital media critic and vice chairman of the Society of Picture Quality Engineers in Japan. “No one knows yet what the next-generation broadcasting should look like, or even whether the next-generation system itself is necessary,” he said. “Such unknowns were also in existence when NHK started its original HDTV technology development in the 1960s. The research work, therefore, should not be based on the market demand. Rather, it should be an effort to plant seeds for the future. It may be too advanced an effort, but probably only NHK has enough resources to pull this off, ranging from
content and media to research power.

“Current HDTV is OK up to about a 65-inch display. But for larger displays, much higher resolution will be needed sooner or later,” said Asakura.

Based on their experience with HDTV, NHK officials said it takes about 30 years for a broadcasting system to be developed and accepted. NHK began working on
HDTV in 1969, and it was the first to start HDTV broadcasting in 1989—in analog.

It took 31 years, until 2000, for NHK to start satellite digital HDTV broadcasting in Japan. Terrestrial digital TV broadcasting, in collaboration with some private
TV stations, followed in 2003. And by last December, coverage of the terrestrial digital HDTV service had spread to all corners of Japan.

Based on that 30-year-cycle theory, since NHK started working on Super Hi-Vision in 1995, the technology should be ready around 2025.

“We believe that Super Hi-Vision is the ultimate 2-D broadcasting system. But it is not our final target. What comes next will probably be 3-D TV broadcasting. We
want to realize natural, eye-friendly 3-D after we realize Super Hi-Vision broadcasting,” said lab director Tanioka.

NHK’s R&D plan is based on the strong faith in broadcasting. Even two decades ahead. “We believe that TV broadcasting will continue serving,” said Hideki Suganami, director of planning and general affairs of the labs. “Quality and reliability are always required for broadcasting, especially for a public broadcaster, and
we’ve been satisfying the requirement. We don’t expect that something else can easily replace broadcasting.”

A closer look

Super Hi-Vision delivers 8K x 4K images at a 16:9 aspect ratio, scanned 60 frames per second in progressive mode with 22.2 multichannel sound. The transmission
method has not been nailed down yet. It is designed to give the viewer a strong sensation of reality. So to give the viewer the sensation of being engulfed in images
on a display, the desirable horizontal viewing angle was set at 100 degrees.

This means that with the standard recommended viewing distance 0.75 times the display height, NHK calculates that the standard size for a Super Hi-Vision display
in the home would be 100 inches. Therefore, the viewer would have to be about 1 meter from the display.

Under those conditions, 8K x 4K was the resolution at which the viewer would not see individual pixels. “The specifications were defined as the ultimate resolution
from the viewpoint of the human factor. And the number of pixels is the integral multiplication of the present HD specification, four times both horizontally and vertically. This makes format conversion, maintaining backward compatibility, and building hardware easy,”said Suganami.

Showing off

To display the potential of the technology, the NHK lab demonstrated at its open house in May the core technologies required to broadcast Super Hi-Vision TV programs from input (a camera and an image sensor), data processing (H.264 encoder and decoder system), transmission (simulated 21-GHz satellite-relayed
transmission) and output (display technology and a projector system).

• Input: A 33-megapixel image sensor to take full 8K x 4K-resolution images was jointly developed with a United States venture company, which is apparently affiliated with the former Photobit Corp. This year’s prototype captures only monochrome video images. Next, researchers plan to set a prism on the sensor
to capture images in red, green and blue to build a color camera using the three imagers.

• Compression/decompression: With Fujitsu Laboratories Ltd., NHK developed MPEG-4 AVC/H.264-based real-time encoding and decoding prototype systems. The encoder and the decoder have 16 processing units each. For quick algorithm alternation, an FPGA is used for the processing unit.

The original 24-Gbit/s Super Hi-Vision signal is divided into 16 streams at the parallelization unit in the encoder and passed to each of 16 coding units.

The signal is compressed 1/200, to 128 Mbits/s, in real-time; then it can be handled in a broadcasting system.

In actual broadcasting, the signal would be transmitted to a satellite and sent back to the decoding system at home. In the demonstration, the signal was sent to a simulated satellite system and sent to the prototype decoder system, which has the mirror structure with 16 processing units. The 16 streams decoded at 16 processing units are then restored to one Super Hi-Vision signal.

• Transmission: NHK intends to use a 21-GHz-band satellite transmission path to deliver programs to homes. The 21-GHz band is allocated for broadcasting
and reserved for future use. NHK researchers prepared prototype units for the simulated satellite transmission. The wideband modulator prototype can handle multiple Super Hi-Vision channels. It can transmit a 500-Mbit/s signal in 300-MHz bandwidth in the 21.85-GHz band to a satellite. A prototype traveling wave tube, which is mounted on a satellite, amplifies the signaland sends it back via a satellite-mounted antenna. The signal is received in the home via an approximately two-foot parabolic antenna; then it is demodulated at the wideband demodulator. Quadrature phase shift keying was used for the modulation. “The signal is actually
transmitted and received through a simulated satellite path, but there is no home-use upper Hi-Vision display yet,” said a spokesman.

To experiment with the transmission via an actual satellite, NHK and the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology will use the WINDS satellite, a satellite for superhigh-speed data transmission, expected to be launched by March.

• Display: Home displays, even experimental ones, that can deliver 8K x 4K resolution are not yet available. To achieve that high resolution in a 100-inch display, one pixel should be as small as 0.3 mm x 0.3 mm—or half the size of a pixel in today’s 50-inch HD panel. The smallest at present is in a 6.5-inch plasma display panel with 144 x 81 pixels, each 0.3 mm x 0.3 mm, developed by NHK, Pioneer, Noritake and NBC. With the small pixels, the display achieved luminous efficiency
of 1.1 lumen/watt by using Ne-Xe gas in the panel.

Victor Co. of Japan Ltd. (JVC) is working with NHK to develop a Super Hi-Vision front projector with high dynamic range. The prototype projector processes image data in two stages using three I-DLA devices, for R, G and B in the first stage, and a device for luminance processing in the second stage.

Compared with contrast ratios of present front projectors at several thousand to one, the prototype achieved 1 million to one. Tone reproduction in dark areas
has especially been improved.

The prototype projector consists of two systems to generate Super Hi-Vision resolution. The next goal is to display 8K x 4K images with one system.

• Production: For smooth transmission of programming to a broadcasting station from various locations, NHK developed a fiber-optic transmission system that conveys a baseband 24-Gbit/s Super Hi-Vision signal without the need for compression.

In the transmission system, the data is converted to three 10-Gbit/s signals of different wavelengths and multiplexed using dense wavelength division multiplexing for transmission over one fiber-optic cable. Using two amplifiers for relays, the system was reported to have transmitted the Super Hi-Vision signal over 186 miles.

Outwardly appealing

NHK is working to build an ecosystem for Super Hi-Vision in global standardization bodies. It scored a victory last year when its video format (7,680 x 4,320 pixels) was included as one of the International Telecommunication Union’s large-screen formats in the ITUR BT.1769 standard. The large-screen standard includes 4K x 2K (3,820 x 2,160) and 8K x 4K (7,680 x 4,320).

NHK is also working at the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE), a powerful technical society in the area of standardization for broadcasting equipment. It proposes that Super Hi-Vision be included in SMPTE’s discussion agenda.

NHK’s lab has also been partnering with related industries.

Just thought I'd dust this puppy off and see who's predictions are on track. Good reading.

Heck, I'm guessing we'll have the 1080p pj's under $1K within 1 to 2 years, which'll cut the early predictions in half. Still waiting on the laser-based stuff, tho. My little DLP 720p projector is already so much smaller, less than 1/3 the size of my previous 480p DLP projector, I'm guessing that downsizing is also going to continue. Especially if LED-based projectors go mainstream.

Staying tuned...

In ten years we won't need a projection device, per se. We'll just play a movie or scene from real life through our 3-D laser bluetooth control device straight to our cranial interface that will act like the Star Trek Holodeck. Won't it be wonderful!

Wolfie

Sounds like an insidious Government conspiracy, to me! :D

I speculate that, because of copy right piracy issues, you won't own any videos. Everything will be on demand. You pay per play, in a format that's not licensed for any recordable or play back device. If there are exceptions, it will be severly down rezzed.

If movie ownership is outlawed then only criminals will own movies. ;)

- Tom

Yes! After 10 years my HDMI player finally shakes hands with my projector!