I'm convinced that both formats will survive to the detriment of both.
What do you think?

As long as both formats survive, they'll remain niche formats unless combo players arrive in masses and cheap at some point.

I think the existence of the Xbox and PS3 will necessitate the survival of both formats.
This guarantees that neither of them will be as succesful as DVD.

I believe that by 2010, both formats will have proven to be comparative failures, a tiny bit more succesful than SACD and DVD-Audio.

I think that Blu-ray may be the format that prevails. I went to my local BB and CC and they had these on display with the demo disc running. The HD DVD players were shelved without a display. At my local BB, the Blu-ray section, with the player and discs is very prominently displayed. They have two very small HD DVD sections. One is near the DVD section and the other is right next to the player. My CC has a couch and a big screen TV with their Blu-ray player. Their HD DVD section is behind the counter, out of sight.

I really wish that HD DVD comes out ahead, or even ties with Blu-ray. I have seen both formats in action and believe that HD DVD is the superior format. So far I have 15 HD DVD movies at home, 2 more are on their way via UPS, and I'm buying another one this week. I really enjoy this format, but Toshiba is not really promoting it. Maybe they want a big tax writeoff, or something.

VHS will rule in the end! :D

Retro rules apply ONLY, with Microsoft doing the Arcade Games on XBOX 360 and all...

Well If you ask me we are going to have a resurgence of Super 35 Reel-to-reel.. biyatches! :)

Sure it will make masterbation a LITTLE more complex but then where is your adventure!! :D

I picked the BluRay answer, although I don't think marketing is the whole reason. I think the PS3 is likely to convince all major studios (including Universal) to release movies for BluRay (unless the PS3 slips significantly), while the XBOX360 add-on won't. And the PS3, 50GB long term disk size, and higher instantaneous rates are likely to keep any current BluRay supporting studios from defecting to only release for HD DVD.

--Darin

you should have made it multiple choices, it would make it much easier :)

I don't think in 2010 there will be two formats.

I think BD still has the better chance of winning of the two. And I still think that there is a good chance that HD disks will survive, but I also still think it can be easy for neither to survive.

Even though I think it is close to 50/50 I will pick BD, I would rather have HD then not.

HD-DVD has no answer to the PS3. It makes no difference how much HD-DVD may be better/cheaper, it can't stop the PS3 freight train. Which means that we'll get stuck with the inferior format, IMO.

HD-DVD has no answer to the PS3. It makes no difference how much HD-DVD may be better/cheaper, it can't stop the PS3 freight train. Which means that we'll get stuck with the inferior format, IMO.


By the time the PS3 is out in mass supply, there will be much cheaper stand alone players.

Not one household I know uses a gaming console as their DVD player. Infact, most of these household's have multiple stand along DVD players. People buy too much into the PS3 hype.

I think all the formats will survive (2010 is not far away) ... with DVD and the hidef formats selling equally well (with DVD still in lead). Downloads will be battling both DVDs and the rental market.

The other possibility is hidef dvds will have some 1% of market share - not able to challenge the dominance of DVD.

I think both formats will survive, but only because Sony will not have given up BluRry after "only" four years.

I believe that more HD DVD discs will be being pressed in 2010 and most if not all studios will be supporting HD DVD releases.

At that point in time, when there is a real mass-market (ie mainstream) for Hidef optical discs, the cost differentials in production will be making themselves most apparent.

Sony has placed themselves in a very tough position, as they have banked the entire future of the company on the success of Bluray... When the PS3 is outsold by Wii and Xbox, some execs will have a lot to answer for to the board...

I believe BluRay will go the way of UMD, MD, memoryStick, microMV, and consumer Beta.

I believe the failure of BluRay will be the final motivation needed for Sony to undergo a massive overhaul, restructuring and transformation.

I believe within 18 months from now, BD's failure will cause the breakup of Sony- the divestiture of the content creation side, and independant operation of the consumer and professional lines.

IMHO, of course.

I believe BluRay will go the way of UMD, MD, memoryStick, microMV, and consumer Beta.

I believe the failure of BluRay will be the final motivation needed for Sony to undergo a massive overhaul, restructuring and transformation.

I believe within 18 months from now, BD's failure will cause the breakup of Sony- the divestiture of the content creation side, and independant operation of the consumer and professional lines.

IMHO, of course.


The end result of the above might be a leaner, meaner, smarter Sony, instead of the myopic, self-absorbed behemoth we presently know. That would put them in a better position for winning the next format war. As I recall, Papillon's final words were "I'm still here you bastards!"

Wow, I'm surprised that HD DVD surviving is leading the poll.
I thought Bluray fans were much more numerous than HD DVD fans.

The option for Blu Ray surviving without HD DVD should not include "marketing" for being the only listed reason. Marketing could be attributed to any outcome. There for my immediate response to this poll is that it serves as a shot against Blu Ray.

Anything going for HVD?

Anything going for HVD?

I would put HVD into the download camp. It would represent the alternative burn-it-yourself storage form.

I suspect HVD would have to be duplicated (recorded) and rather than replicated (manufactured) for packaged media. So, you'd need a 300GB (picking a number out of thin air) HVD blank to be $2-$3 before it would even be considered.

On the other hand, 10x HD DVD movies downloaded onto a 300GB HVD could be economical in 2-3 years.

Gary

>$500 as a survival bet is a lot more palatable as a risk than $1,000. Am I the only one that thinks that PS3 won't make a hill of beans of difference with this war? You can't compare it to PS2 and DVD . Most gamers have SD TV's and are 12 years old. I have an XBOX 360 and talk to others on live that have XBOX360. You'd be suprised at the number of people that bought XBOX360 and don't have an HDTV. Why would these people purchase movies that only play on their PS3. If they purchase movies that only play on their PS3 (that'll be their perception), they can't rip them, they can't play them in their car, or loan them to a friend with DVD player, etc,..and they look the same on their 27" CRT TV.
IMHO, to get one of these formats going, you need a relatively cheap player (Toshiba), cheap software, lots of software support, easy rental availability. If all of this happens it still might end up being a nitch market. My guess is at least 80% of the world is perfectly happy with DVD.

By the time the PS3 is out in mass supply, there will be much cheaper stand alone players.

Not one household I know uses a gaming console as their DVD player. Infact, most of these household's have multiple stand along DVD players. People buy too much into the PS3 hype.

Exactly.

Video game consoles since the Atari 2600 have been hyped as the "home entertainment/edutainment/educational/home office epicenter".

The computer add-ons for the 2600.

Then the hype around NES.

Then Cdi and 3DO.

Then the Xbox and PS2 promising "one box for gaming and DVD", which *no one* used as DVD players regularly or seriously.

Why people continue to fall for these gimmicks, letting history repeat itself, I'll never know.

Once universal players come out, studios are going to flock to HD-DVD. Who wants to incur additional cost of pressing BD when you could play either disc in your machine. Sony knows this and that's why they are very afraid of anyone making a universal player.

Am I the only one that thinks that PS3 won't make a hill of beans of difference with this war?

yes

Let's hope the PS3's BR playback isn't crippled like Sony'd new Vaio with the BR player.

http://www.sonystyle.com/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/eCS/Store/en/-/USD/SY_DisplayProductInformation-Start;sid=pTV7Lapa6D57xe78vtRxJuVLIDBjtLMSoNQ=?ProductSKU=VG CRC310G&Dept=computers&CategoryName=cpu_rcseriesdesktops

Blu-ray Compatible
Blu-ray disc™ Media/Format is not universally compatible. VAIO computers do not support movie playback on packaged media recorded in AVC or VC1 formats at bit rates higher than 20 Mbps. Requires compatible high-definition display for high definition playback. Playback of HDCP encoded media requires and HDCP compliant output and HDCP compliant display.

And yes, they are arrogant/stupid enough to do such a thing.

Blu-Ray only will survive, marketing will bury HD DVD

This is my vote although this is dependent on Sony not taking forever to get better Blu-ray software available and of course not losing the exclusive support they have from some studios and manufacturers.

Some of you are underestimating the PS3's power to dictate the outcome. I will agree with what was said above - I too, know nobody that uses game consoles to watch DVDs. (It's kind of a lame concept, because whenever the "adult" wants to watch a DVD, he has to kick the "child" off of a game (I put "adult" and "child" in quotes, since the roles I describe can actually played by persons be of any age ;)). And many game consoles are in "play rooms" rather than hooked up to the main TV/Theater.)

But that's beside the point. The point is that the studios lined up behind Sony precisely because of the PS3 trojan horse strategy; they couldn't care less about whether BD is actually "better" or not. They see those milions of *potential* BD movie players, and so prostrate themselves before Sony.

If HD-DVD had the same studio support, it would be all over for BD (since it's too expensive to justify the meager advantages it has (or claims it will have in the future) over HD-DVD). But PS3 has delivered studio support. And I don't think it's like UMD, which failed despite early studio support, because UMD made zero sense at all.

because UMD made zero sense at all.

And why does BD on PS3 make any *more* sense than UMD on PMP?

And why does BD on PS3 make any *more* sense than UMD on PMP?

BD makes perfect sense on paper.
Had it not been for pesky Toshiba, Sony et al would take it slowly and they would be able to ramp up manufacturing that is actually 'manufacturable' rather than the mess they are in right now.
Plus Sony is a bone-headed operation cutting off their nose to spite their faces (i.e. not using MS's VC1)...
Only one company has the power to say "Game Over" and that is Sony.
Which way it will go, it's up to them...

yes
Sorry Anthony, just don't see it. I may not be the most knowlegdable on the subject here, but with the initial price of about $600 for a PS3 and most consumers really not aware that they are more than just a game, IMO it will be a flop long term for the viewing of BD discs.

If you have that kind of money to play games, you are going to just buy a BD or HD-DVD anyhow.

Edit:
If a kid can get the parents to pony up the funds for the PS3 and the games will initially go for about $50 that will probably come from the kids pocket, I don't think that he will go out and buy Gladiator instead of the newest RPG.
EndEdit

$600 is not that much nowadays... Hell, the iPod is $400 and everybody has them!

$600 is not that much nowadays... Hell, the iPod is $400 and everybody has them!

Sorry Andrikos, had to edit that one.

The initial price is only part of the equation. Once the console is purchaced, then the game software providers are going to have to compete with the Studios (MGM, Sony, etc...) for the $'s that are spent on the media played on the console.

The I-Tunes website will offer a single song download for what 50 cents, a buck? A new game is alot more.

TNG. Let's divide it into two discussions

1) price and will people buy PS3

2) will people that buy PS3 buy BDs

-----------
1) I think this is a bit of a red herring. What I mean is yes a higher (or lower) price can affect how many will be sold. But do you think if the 360 was 100$ more or less then what it was that the numbers in the first few months would be different? I don't there were people paying 1000K on ebay for the core model when it came out. The first 6 months I think manufacturing will be the biggest obstacle, in 5 years it could be price, but by then who cares. It is the first -1.5 years that should be the most important for the new formats and at that time the true gamers, the cheap BD player buyers will most likely be buying everyone of them. If we assume 6M sold by March and 600k HD DVD players by the same time then there is a 10:1 BD advantage just because of the PS3. And a number that will more or less take 2-3 years for HD DVD to match.

2) This one is harder and can be debated. Does anyone know how much? will it be 10% (so in reality HD-DVD@600k=PS3@6m) or is it much higher or much lower. Even if one assumes 1% (and all other # the same) it still adds 10% (compared to HD DVD), so still a bit important (hill of beans is not big but still there)

You also have the "psychological" factor for the studios. Yes if only 1% buy it is not that big a factor (but it is a factor), but a studio can advertise and no one knows if/when it will go to 2%, 5% or 10% or 20%.

as to UMD/BD, I think there is a lot to learn and to ignore from it.

-to learn
when people buy a new gadget and they find out some cool "bonus" they want to try it out.

- to ignore
people that bought UMDs to try it out did not continue buying.

why can that be ignored. Like Andrikos said it is dumb to buy UMDs. The movies were too expensive and useless for any other usage. How many people will only watch a movie on that small screen. The person needs the DVD and UMD, and it is easy to use the DVD and a MS to watch the movies on the PS3 without needing to pay all the extra for a UMD

Anthony,

I agree, I watched people go wild over the PS2 and 360, spending much more than MSRP just to have it for someone in time for the holidays. These were the initial people who are the first buyers and they have to have it first, we all know a couple of people like that. At some point the market saturates and sales are alot more moderate.

Again most people who want to look at a BD player will not look at a PS3 (IMO). The more snotty hi end types (yes we are all in that category in some way) will not even consider it. Alot more of the JSP types will not even know the PS3 will play BD and the CC's and BB's of the world will not point out this fact because they want to sell their version.

Also the same reasons apply for things like the TV/computer combos that were out a few years ago. All in one items just don't seem to have legs.

No matter how many millions of PS3's you put out there, if people only play games on them, what is the point?

If BD wins over HD-DVD it will be because of what I have heard mentioned before and witnessed today at a BB in Pleasanton CA. A Samsung BD player hooked up to a 46"Samsung LCD playing a movie with a prominent place in the store. The only HD-DVD player I saw was on a shelf nearby with a cable around it to prevent theft, unpluged, not even a price tag or description tag. Probably the same at every BB around the country for a reason. Find your own BB and check it out.

But the early PS3 adopters are what is important in the A/V war. in a few years if the PS3 is doing well or not is inconsequential, by that time either these formats have taken off and the sales are massive or not. It is now that is important. Toshiba said they sold 20k players. I don't expect player sales to be leaner (20k in two months means 10k a month) but it is unreasonable to expect them to be more then 1M anytime soon. And the soon part is where the PS3 will add the big # to BD

As for people not knowing the PS3 can play movies. Do you really believe that Sony will try and hide that fact? my guess it will be plastered around everywhere the PS3 is sold. That there will be a movie (or demo disk) that comes bundled with the player and that they will add some movies to help fill up the PS3 area of the store. There are some people (I don’t agree with this) saying that BD is in the PS3 only to sell BD (no value for game play) if even remotely true do you think that Sony would have added BD and then not try and sell that feature?

PS I agree on the HT fans. That is why I will buy a BD player. If all it would bring is HT fans then it adds nothing. They could buy BD elsewhere. The beauty is that it brings to BD movie watchers (let's face it, that is everyone) that would not think of HD disks or that would not buy an HD player to upgrade.

I'm convinced that both formats will survive to the detriment of both.


There are two ways that both formats could survive - as competing formats, or as a merged format. If Toshiba and Sony agree to make dual format players, then both formats would survive, but there would be no "format war".

I truely beleive that the PS3 is the deciding factor. Lets just be honest, sony is going to promote to heck and back that the PS3 plays BD movies out of the box. And i more then sure a BD Demo/Movie disc will be included to help demo it. Im also going to assume the holiday "Bundles" that will be out for this xmas will include a ton of movies to help drive up the prices. Thats a huge benefit to stores, to bundle movies AND/or games to help sell the system even more. This xmas we'll see the BD explosion happen im sure. Im patiently awaiting for a ps3 myself.

I don't believe that the mainstream market is interested in HD. Here in Germany most people who buy an HD-Ready TV already believe they are watching HDTV. DVD Players are widely spread and I don't think the mainstream is interested in buying a new player again.

I don't think downloads will be very important, either. ATM, VOD is expensive, of low-quality, and not very comfortable to use due to DRM. It would also require to buy new STBs.

DVDs on the other side are cheap, their PQ is good enough for most users, they can be easily copied and shared with friends. Try lending a DRM'ed file to a friend, it simply won't work.

I wonder what the line is in Vegas regarding the survival of the 2 formats! :D
Looking at our results here, it's not looking good for BD / Blu-Ray (what a confusingly stupid selection of names/acronyms. It should lose just because of that...)

I truely beleive that the PS3 is the deciding factor. Lets just be honest, sony is going to promote to heck and back that the PS3 plays BD movies out of the box. And i more then sure a BD Demo/Movie disc will be included to help demo it. Im also going to assume the holiday "Bundles" that will be out for this xmas will include a ton of movies to help drive up the prices. Thats a huge benefit to stores, to bundle movies AND/or games to help sell the system even more. This xmas we'll see the BD explosion happen im sure. Im patiently awaiting for a ps3 myself.


PS3 isn't going to mean **** if they don't get a Sony BD player out before the end of summer. Sony has NO hardware in the wild except for a ghetto Vaio notebook that sucks like most Vaios. You're looking at Sony making their "power-play" more than 4 months after the format launch? The $500 PS3 is going to compete with HD DVD? You really don't think HD DVD will have a price drop right before Christmas?

The PS3 lost it's ability as a Trojan Horse. Japan, a Sony stronghold, did a survey and found only 20% of those polled would be buying a PS3 whereas nearly 70% said they were going to buy a Wii. Sony priced themselves out of the market with their ignorance/arrogance.

They will need to sell the PS3 for $349 or less for it to be as effective as you believe. Only Hardcore gamers are gonna pay Sony's price, and the majority of them don't give a **** about BR movies.

Im patiently awaiting for a ps3 myself.
Are you going to use it as a BD player or buy a separate console?

I think the poll really should include a question if you buy a PS3, is that going to be your BD Player?

Anthony is right they will promote it (still don't think it will work).

And to IronCamel, as I type this, it is on a Sony Viao notebook. Less than a year old and the screen brightness has dimmed enough to make dark movies look like crap. My friends in Japan say that is just the start of what is in store for me with this thing, give it another year they say, you'll see. They aren't fans of Sony either.

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that PS3 will have nothing to do with this format war.
Nobody I know uses their gaming consoles for DVD watching.
It's so cheap and easy to have a $100 standalone DVD player, why bother with the gaming console?
Now, for college dorms, a PS3 would be an ideal device but who can afford to buy several BD movies when they're in college? I know I couldn't plus you're supposed to be studying people! :D

It's so cheap and easy to have a $100 standalone DVD player, why bother with the gaming console?

but that is the difference, there are no HD players at 100$.


Now, for college dorms, a PS3 would be an ideal device but who can afford to buy several BD movies when they're in college?

I have to ask this since others have talked about BD movie prices. Where are you guys finding these expensive BDs. The BD disks I have seen are priced close to HD DVD

but that is the difference, there are no HD players at 100$.

True, not yet.
But it will happen within a year or so.




I have to ask this since others have talked about BD movie prices. Where are you guys finding these expensive BDs. The BD disks I have seen are priced close to HD DVD

Anthony, I never said BD disks are more expensive (retail).
All I'm saying is that students don't 'collect' movies, people with jobs do.
Of course blockbuster is an ideal way for renting a couple of movies to watch on a PS3 but that's not what the studios are shooting for...

I'm one of those with no intention of buying another game console any time soon. So it's hard for me to understand all the hoopla of how the ps3 (or Xbox upgrade drive) will affect the format war. I'm just not in that demographic.

- Tom

What must be frustrating for the Blu-Ray supporters is that this war would be over now if Sony had released BDs with equal quality as HD-DVD and went head to head on the price of the players. If Sony does this in the next few months then game over, however, if not then I suspect these formats are dependent on "videophiles" and the vast majority will gravitate to HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will slowly choke to death.

With the introduction of both HD formats CRT displays (particularly front projection) should have taken a death blow and some on this forum predicted this. However, cheap HDCP strippers and no ITC over compoment allowed these projectors to live to see another day. The best most rational arguments are based on what we know today. It is what we don't know or how inventive people are when faced with adversity that will determine what type of HD format we have in 2010, IMO.

Cheers,

Grant

True, not yet.
But it will happen within a year or so.

you really think so?


Anthony, I never said BD disks are more expensive (retail).
All I'm saying is that students don't 'collect' movies, people with jobs do.
Of course blockbuster is an ideal way for renting a couple of movies to watch on a PS3 but that's not what the studios are shooting for...

sorry. There was someone else that said BD disks were way too expensive compared to HD DVD, and I thought your post was in the same vain. The DVD store near my place has HD DVDs and BDs at more or less the same price(some BDs a bit more and some a bit less). I found it odd then and with your post I found it more curious (I would not expect BS from you)

as for buying movies, it has been a long time since I have been a student. On the other hand it is still 2BDs for 1 game. So who knows. Also even if they don't buy movies but rent them, they will still have an effect. The rental places will need to buy BDs. And the important thing (for either format) is that it will help build support for a nascent format and concept.

;)
No problem Anthony, I'm not (in)vested in this format war.
Actually my company is in the BluRay camp, but personally I couldn't care less who wins.

It certainly seems that HDVD is winning this very early battle of the war.
In the end it could easily go either way (or neither way).

As for the $100 HDVD player, I don't have any insider info by any means but I foresee China positioning itself in this battle ready to cream Japanese competition. Exactly what Japan did (and is doing) to US manufacturing.
Everybody who's laughing at the Chinese quality won't be laughing for much longer.
The giant is awake and ready to conquer. But that's another story...

I started this poll back in late June and I thought the results were interesting.

The momentum right now definitely belongs to the BluRay camp and I don't foresee any change.

However, I still believe we will have both camps in 2010.

What do you think?

Both formats will survive, with HD DVD edging out Blu Ray, all studios will be format neutral by then.... but

downloadable High Def content will be the force to contend.

I can now download at about 15meg (Cablevision) and am switching to FIOS soon (up to 50meg), u do the math...

yes in 2010 i will be downloading as much as possible :)

I thought the results of this poll were completely bizzare until I saw the original date posted. It seems to make sense for last summer.

Depending on how the releases go, HD DVD could or could not hang on for three more years. Unless something completely unforeseen happens, Blu-ray will be here though. No question. Downloadable - niche markets definitely, wider distribution hard to say, a lot of variables there. The telecoms are still lurching along for the most part in this country.

It is only a matter of time before downloadable content is the format of choice.

I thought the results of this poll were completely bizzare until I saw the original date posted. It seems to make sense for last summer.

Indeed.
The data belongs in a time window of the past that seems to have passed.

I don't think anyone at this point would doubt the survival of the BluRay camp.

The HD-DVD camp OTOH is a bit more up in the air. It needs more market penetration and a vast media campaign to outdo what BR has done recently.

Maybe they're both on borrowed time (DL content) but I don't think so.
We're probably 5 years away from a purely "soft" future. There are too many DRM issues to solve.

At the risk of repeating what has been said many times.

Content is king and Blu-ray's studio advantage will drive the market over to Blu-ray over time.

J6P goes into a store and asks the following questions:

Q: "which format is selling better?"
A: Blu-ray currently has a 2:1 sales advantage

Q: "which has better studio support?"
A: 7/8 of major studios support Blu-ray with 3 exclusive, 5/8 support HD DVD with 1 exclusive.

And this is assuming J6P is more informed that most. A more typical example would be

Q: which format is better?
A: Blu-ray because more movies are coming out for it

Cheers
Christy

PS: I own both by the way.

At the risk of repeating what has been said many times.

Content is king and Blu-ray's studio advantage will drive the market over to Blu-ray over time.

Again, at the risk of repeating what has been said many times ... if content is king why should anyone buy BD instead of sticking with DVD ?

Lets see ... BD has 100 movies and DVD has 100,000. Do you want to see a more lopsided fight w.r.t. content ?

In reality - what matters is perceived value.

- perceived value of better PQ of HD over SD
- perceived value of possibly more movies in BD over HD DVD
- perceived value of cheaper HD DVD players compared to BD
- perceived value of a CE player compared to a game console

For eg. if J6P feels the perceived value from higher PQ of HD over SD is not worth the extra money ... then they don't buy HiDef DVD (true for 99.9% of population today).

If the world were suddenly filled with dual-format players, BR would die instantly. Studios would make the cheaper-to-make HD DVD discs - and have immediate access to ample production facilities.

If the world were suddenly filled with dual-format players, BR would die instantly. Studios would make the cheaper-to-make HD DVD discs - and have immediate access to ample production facilities.

no, it would be the other way. Let me ask you this. in 2005 there were no players so everything out there was dual, the studios could have all gone HD DVD and the CEs would have dumped BD in a heart beat. Why did most studios go the other way and said they hoped HD DVD would go away?

I started this poll back in late June and I thought the results were interesting.
The momentum right now definitely belongs to the BluRay camp and I don't foresee any change.
However, I still believe we will have both camps in 2010.
What do you think?Which ever one is cheaper and the first one that is cracked.

And I believe HD-DVD is already cracked and available for downloads.

As u can see the HD-dvd market is shrinking from lack of titles and players. Once Euro gets ahold of PS3 in March We will be yelling "Finish Him".

As u can see the HD-dvd market is shrinking from lack of titles and players. Once Euro gets ahold of PS3 in March We will be yelling "Finish Him".
:( ..... longer and longer....

As u can see the HD-dvd market is shrinking from lack of titles and players. Once Euro gets ahold of PS3 in March We will be yelling "Finish Him".

Where is it shrinking ?

Which ever one is cheaper and the first one that is cracked.

And I believe HD-DVD is already cracked and available for downloads.

Hmmm, how long does it take for a 30GB download?
Crazy.

Blu-ray is definately going to be around in 2010.

The question is about HD-DVD. I don't think they will, but if they are it will likely be to the detriment of HD movies. Fighting formats will not catch on with the public. Only widespread acceptance will bring prices down and fuel more movies and better prices. As I see it now, our only hope for this is with Blu-ray.

I'd say either blu-ray will be the clear winner and will proliferate like wildfire around 2010, or HD-DVD will continue to fight and both formats will sputter until download speeds are fast enough to do away with these formats all together.

Hmmm, how long does it take for a 30GB download?
Crazy.

A few hours for me. I definitely do not have the fastest connection.

Even if it's up to 16 hours, assuming people sleep and work, and a constant connection at home, what's the difference? You could have a movie a night. Note, I am not advocating piracy, just downloads. 360 marketplace already has 720p downloads.

Don't ISP's typically have download limits?

The poll topic should be : 2012 - will any of us survive?

;)

Where is it shrinking ?

Maybe it's more accurate to say the Blu-Ray market's expanding at a far faster rate than HD-DVD, and still has far more potential to grow.

HD-DVD's had the shot in the arm from the 360 add-on and King Kong, what else have they realistically, in the short to medium term, left in their locker.

2010. You cannot be serious!

It's all going to happen much faster. The resolution will be measured in months, not years.

It's quite simple. One survives or both die.

We happy few posting here amount to a pimple upon the bottom of an Elephant.

We won't decide this war. The Elephant will. And, no, it doesn't know or care about the pimple on its bottom.

PS: That last bit was an analogy - in case you were befuddled or you want all your widescreen tele filled with a 2.35:1 image - which amounts to the same thing quite frankly.

... still has far more potential to grow.

That is just your opinion. COme back here after thinking about UMD.

2010 nothing. HD-DVD for all intents and purposes dies in 2007 and WILL be burried in 2008. $$$ is $$$ and by the time we reach the 2007 holiday season, BD will be outselling HD-DVD (software) by at least 5 to 1 and Universal will announce there support of BD at the January 2008 CES... END OF STORY!
It's off to the liquidation bins (90% off) for HD-DVD in 2008.

By 2009, instead of TOTAL HD we will have TOTAL MOVIE: BD on one side DVD on the other and ALL movies will be released this way essentially forcing the consumer to wake up to the reality of High Definition wether they like it or not.
Doing this will cut down on costs as studios won't have to release 3 versions anymore (just 1) and brick and mortar establishments will also greatly benefit from this as it will reduce the real estate needed for movies and eliminate returns because of wrong format purchases.

P.S. The ONLY chance HD-DVD ever HAD to survive was for the XBOX 360 to include it standard in there gaming console. The instant that did not happen HD-DVD was DOA. If if had happened, we would probably have a stalemate as the end result so be glad and thankful to Microsoft for deciding not to include it (present and future).

Hmmm.... nice world Sony would have us live in eh homer? "wake up to the reality of HD wether you like it or not" sure DOES sound like a Sony marketing line to me I must admit.

Will they be buying the masses the thousands of dollars of gear it will take for these people to "wake up" to reality?

LOL!!!!!

Sony has no choice. Blu-ray must prevail. They have studio support. Now Sony needs to flood the market with players. If they haven't already done this, I predict Sony will give away or have deals on Blu-ray players next holiday season. For example, buy a Bravia or XRD and get a Blu-ray player for $200.

I'm still perplexed why studios support Blu-ray. Aren't they, in effect, lining the pockets of their competitor?

Hmmm.... nice world Sony would have us live in eh homer? "wake up to the reality of HD wether you like it or not" sure DOES sound like a Sony marketing line to me I must admit.

Will they be buying the masses the thousands of dollars of gear it will take for these people to "wake up" to reality?

LOL!!!!!


STFU. This has nothing at all to do with Sony. It has EVERYTHING to do with studios saving money and putting out one product on the market instead of 3, therefore saving costs and increasing customer satisfaction. Once the average Joe slowly (for some VERY slowly... :D ) starts to realize that he allready has a substantial High Definition movie collection (he got them bundled in when he purchased the regular DVD...) the very rapidly declining prices of the HDTV sets he walks by every week at Wallmart will start to look more and more appealing.

Thousands of dollars??? Nov 2006 Black Friday you could pick up a 50" rear projection HDTV for less then 500$. By the end of 2008, you will be able to pick up a high definition player AND an HDTV for less then 1000$.

Sony has no choice. Blu-ray must prevail. They have studio support. Now Sony needs to flood the market with players. If they haven't already done this, I predict Sony will give away or have deals on Blu-ray players next holiday season. For example, buy a Bravia or XRD and get a Blu-ray player for $200.

I'm still perplexed why studios support Blu-ray. Aren't they, in effect, lining the pockets of their competitor?

Why studios support Blu-ray is an interesting question.

I think that they signed on initially because they thought it was going to win; the PS3 was the key to their optimism.

I also think that more than one studio rethought their position last fall and would have gone with HD DVD had they realized how the launches would go.

However, by winter, the PS3 had launched. Then, studios like Disney had a hard choice. Basically, they realized that neither format was selling very well beyond the early adopters, and that the problem was the format war.

So, Disney and Lionsgate (in particular) stayed with Blu-ray for the simple reason that it became the vehicle for ending the format war.

For those who remember the poll results from a few months back, HDDVD was clearly leading the way.

Now with the increasing momentum of the Blu Ray juggernaut, it has surpassed HDDVD for the first time. [BOTH=22.72%, HD DVD = 30.73%, Blu Ray = 31.40%, Downloadable = 12.03%, DVD = 3.12%]

It will will be interesting what the picture will look like at the end of this year...

I like to revive this every few months or so just to see where the actual window in time is.

Right now (June 07) the momentum seems to have to returned to the HD DVD camp.
Costco has a $250 HD DVD player on sale.
While this may be a bit too pricey for everybody, I do believe once they crack the $200 barrier, the people will start buying them in hundreds of thousands of units.
Lower the price to under $100 and it will be in the tens of millions of units.

The first technology to do that (HD DVD is a LOT closer now) will have the upper hand.

Of course, if a hybrid player comes out at under $200, all the above points are moot.
Both formats will limp along and both camps will lose.

Both will be around as niche products. DVD will continue to be the dominant format.

looking at the poll tho it seems fair enough to say at least that those who have seen hi-def don't think dvd rules =)

This is one of the least objectively worded polls we have had.

For example, the "Blu-ray will win" choice attributes this to marketing in a quite perjorative way. The "HD DVD will win" choice attributes this to the Blu-ray being "stillborn".

Obviously Blu-ray was not stillborn and yet HD DVD is still in the game. And there are many reasons to support Blu-ray beyond "marketing", and HD DVD has proven pretty adept at marketing as well, especially to early adopters.

If one wants a poll to have credibility, it should word the choices in an even-handed manner. Can't one just say "Blu-ray wins" and "HD DVD wins" for example?

Don't like the push poll

'Blu Ray only will survive, marketing will bury HD DVD'

Sales of movies is and will continue to bury HD DVD.

This is one of the least objectively worded polls we have had.

For example, the "Blu-ray will win" choice attributes this to marketing in a quite perjorative way. The "HD DVD will win" choice attributes this to the Blu-ray being "stillborn".

Obviously Blu-ray was not stillborn and yet HD DVD is still in the game. And there are many reasons to support Blu-ray beyond "marketing", and HD DVD has proven pretty adept at marketing as well, especially to early adopters.

If one wants a poll to have credibility, it should word the choices in an even-handed manner. Can't one just say "Blu-ray wins" and "HD DVD wins" for example?

agreed.

This is one of the least objectively worded polls we have had.

For example, the "Blu-ray will win" choice attributes this to marketing in a quite perjorative way. The "HD DVD will win" choice attributes this to the Blu-ray being "stillborn".

Obviously Blu-ray was not stillborn and yet HD DVD is still in the game. And there are many reasons to support Blu-ray beyond "marketing", and HD DVD has proven pretty adept at marketing as well, especially to early adopters.

If one wants a poll to have credibility, it should word the choices in an even-handed manner. Can't one just say "Blu-ray wins" and "HD DVD wins" for example?

I'd go a step further

Only Blu-ray survives.
Only HD DVD survives.
Both HD DVD & BD formats survive.
DVD remains the primary format.

"Winning" is almost too fuzzy a distinction the way things are shaping up. UMD is still around, still getting a trickle of releases, but I don't think it's "winning" anything. Likewise either HD format or both could exist, but not prosper.

I think the existence of the Xbox and PS3 will necessitate the survival of both formats.
This guarantees that neither of them will be as succesful as DVD.

I believe that by 2010, both formats will have proven to be comparative failures, a tiny bit more succesful than SACD and DVD-Audio.

I don't think the Xbox comes into play at all.

I don't think the Xbox comes into play at all.

Of course it does. If there is small attachment % then the 360 impacts HD DVD positively and BD negatively. Even ignoring the HD DVD add-on the 360 still has an impact.

If more people purchase the 360 over the PS3 due to the price or game availability then that has no net benefit for HD DVD, but it is a net loss for Blu-Ray since there is one less potential Blu-Ray movie purchaser.

This is one of the least objectively worded polls we have had.

Again, you have to look at this under the context of the window in time the poll was taken.

I have no bias against or for any HD disc format.
I couldn't care less.
I'm not a fan boy or a hater.

I don't think the Xbox comes into play at all.

It does (wasn't it the #1 selling HD-DVD player for a while despited being crippled ?) , just nothing remotely close to the impact the PS3 has had. This despite what some HD-DVD fanatics were shouting last year that they would cancel each other out, not even remotely close. MS is to blame for this, many people will not buy the add-on due to it being half-assed as well as the system itself being noisy. Also, they could have had possibly had a significant impact if they included the drive standard in every system.

Again, you have to look at this under the context of the window in time the poll was taken.

I have no bias against or for any HD disc format.
I couldn't care less.
I'm not a fan boy or a hater.
I see a lot of people claim neutrality, but if that's the case, they why add the jabs such as "BD is stillborn" and " [b]marketing will bury HD-DVD" to the choices? It makes your claims of "no bias" difficult for many to accept. (Not necessarily me).

Can we all please try to be as objective as possible? I want this forum to be a great place for folks to come for information as it was in the past.

Interesting poll results.

As BD's DRM fails, DRM fanboys will fade (Sony, FOX, Disney,...) No DRM means no studio support. They are not going to give away the masters. BD/HDDVD will be relegated to old films.

The only other factor is $$$. HDM will always have a higher price than DVD. If DRM works, DVD will be snuffed. If not, DVD will dominate and HDM will be reserved to get extra $$$.

I see a lot of people claim neutrality, but if that's the case, they why add the jabs such as "BD is stillborn" and " [b]marketing will bury HD-DVD" to the choices? It makes your claims of "no bias" difficult for many to accept. (Not necessarily me).

Can we all please try to be as objective as possible? I want this forum to be a great place for folks to come for information as it was in the past.

Interesting poll results.

It's interesting that nobody objected to the "neutrality" or "objectivity" of the poll when it was originally taken a full year ago.

It is a testament, I think, of the polarization this forum has experienced since.
People are tired of the incessant battles between format fanboys and haters.
It got old fast but it's still going on.
Whether anybody thinks I'm biased either way or not, I couldn't care less.
I'll just let the poll speak of itself.

Who cares. I have 40 HD-DVDs and 10 BR movies. Who ever wins, I'll just rip to my hard drive and keep for a rainy day when I need to watch. I did not however waste $1000.00 dollars on a BR player that is now obsolete. For the $400.00 I spent on my HD-DVD player it makes an incredible Audio Disk player! :D

It's interesting that nobody objected to the "neutrality" or "objectivity" of the poll when it was originally taken a full year ago.

It is a testament, I think, of the polarization this forum has experienced since.
People are tired of the incessant battles between format fanboys and haters.
It got old fast but it's still going on.
Whether anybody thinks I'm biased either way or not, I couldn't care less.
I'll just let the poll speak of itself.

AVs Forum BR/HD-DVD Area has become the Ford vs. Chevy, Victicrat vs. Repubvictim and Coor's Vs. Budweiser of the Blogs Sphere. :rolleyes:

Although it can be very entertaining, both sides can be down right mean! :D

I like to revive this every few months or so just to see where the actual window in time is.

Right now (June 07) the momentum seems to have to returned to the HD DVD camp.
Costco has a $250 HD DVD player on sale.It's natural for retailers to give a heavy discount to reduce the inventory when they think there's no future for it. And please don't perform thread necromancy!

It's natural for retailers to give a heavy discount to reduce the inventory when they think there's no future for it. And please don't perform thread necromancy!

You know that's not what is going down, so spare us the "fire-sale" FUD.

These are price-war promotional sales offered by Toshiba to increase the installed base of their players before discount BD players can hit as well.

... And please don't perform thread necromancy!

Hilarious!
You managed to stuff the word "necromancy" in an AVS Forum thread.
Congrats! ;)

Right now (June 07) the momentum seems to have to returned to the HD DVD camp.
Costco has a $250 HD DVD player on sale.

I would like to know what metric you are using to gouge what format has momentum? It is obviously not changes in disk sales BD is kicking HD DVDs but, it is obviously not players sales BD is doing the same there, and for neither it looks like it is about to change. Since when is desperation a metric of momentum?