This is a visual breakdown of the running posts by Grubert at HD DVD & Blu-ray - Release Calendar & Distilled HDTV Optical Disc News Link (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=665702)
All information is based on Grubert's main chart, I have been counting and logging the changes on a weekly basis since 5 Sep 06, I used the last chart of August to apply a data points prior to August so a slightly higher % error is implied prior to September dates. All info from then on is first hand (which is why the bars start on 5 Sep 06).

The point of this post is to watch the changes of the formats over time. I started this as an experiment and found the results very interesting. I will keep this updated on Tuesdays (as that is when the media is released to the stores).

TOTAL COUNT / Format Unique Count / Unique to Total Count ratio (%)

HD-DVD released = 301 / 181 / 60.1%
Blu-ray released = 305/ 186 / 61.0%

HD-DVD total = 362/ 207 / 57.2%
Blu-ray total = 418/ 256 / 61.2%

Here the count, from the list, as of last update for the week of 12Sep07.

Released = as of this date
total = released + scheduled(i.e. announced)

Robert L. Sawyer III

Added chart graphing past (estimated), present and future trends in the format wars.

Left (1st) Y Axis is % of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray titles unique to their format (lines)
@ specific date in time (past & present w/ year divided into weeks) including trend lines...
Dashed Trend lines are moving average for the quarter
Dotted trend lines are moving average for the month

Right (2nd) Y Axis is % of HD-DVD or Blu-Ray titles unique to their format (bars)
past, present and announced future.

Any suggestions/comments are appreciated.


http://members.aol.com/sawyeriii/images/hdvsbr88.gif

This graph is a breakdown by studio and does not deal with uniqueness, however it deals with the motivators of the media.

The averages, minimums and maximums are based on when there is a release that week, not every week to date.

http://members.aol.com/sawyeriii/images/studio88.gif

Week # Date HD-DVD Released Blu-Ray Released HD-DVD Total Announced Blu-Ray Total Announced HD-DVD - Blu-Ray Total's
TOTAL Unique % TOTAL Unique % TOTAL Unique % TOTAL Unique %
15 18-Apr-06 4 1 25.0% 4 1 3 0 3
16 25-Apr-06 6 3 50.0% 6 3 3 0 3
17 02-May-06 8 3 37.5% 8 3 5 0 5
18 09-May-06 13 6 46.2% 13 6 7 0 7
19 16-May-06 15 6 40.0% 15 6 9 0 9
20 23-May-06 21 10 47.6% 21 10 11 0 11
21 30-May-06 21 10 47.6% 21 10 11 0 11
22 06-Jun-06 25 12 48.0% 25 12 13 0 13
23 13-Jun-06 28 14 50.0% 28 14 14 0 14
24 20-Jun-06 30 14 46.7% 7 7 100.0% 23 7 16 0 16
25 27-Jun-06 32 14 43.8% 13 13 100.0% 19 1 18 0 18
26 04-Jul-06 36 18 50.0% 13 13 100.0% 23 5 18 0 18
27 11-Jul-06 40 21 52.5% 14 14 100.0% 26 7 19 0 19
28 18-Jul-06 41 21 51.2% 16 14 87.5% 25 7 20 2 18
29 25-Jul-06 45 21 46.7% 20 18 90.0% 25 3 24 2 22
30 01-Aug-06 48 21 43.8% 24 18 75.0% 24 3 27 6 21
31 08-Aug-06 51 21 41.2% 24 18 75.0% 27 3 30 6 24
32 15-Aug-06 54 24 44.4% 27 21 77.8% 27 3 30 6 24
33 22-Aug-06 59 27 45.8% 28 22 78.6% 31 5 32 6 26
34 29-Aug-06 59 27 45.8% 32 26 81.3% 27 1 32 6 26
35 05-Sep-06 59 27 45.8% 36 26 72.2% 104 76 73.1% 90 62 68.9% 23 1 32 10 22
36 12-Sep-06 66 31 47.0% 36 26 72.2% 106 78 73.6% 96 68 70.8% 30 5 35 10 25
37 19-Sep-06 68 33 48.5% 44 34 77.3% 116 87 75.0% 98 68 69.4% 24 -1 35 10 25
38 26-Sep-06 80 42 52.5% 56 34 60.7% 125 93 74.4% 98 63 64.3% 24 8 38 22 16
39 03-Oct-06 81 42 51.9% 58 35 60.3% 125 93 74.4% 107 72 67.3% 23 7 39 23 16
40 10-Oct-06 89 49 55.1% 69 40 58.0% 135 97 71.9% 117 80 68.4% 20 9 40 29 11
41 17-Oct-06 91 51 56.0% 74 45 60.8% 140 98 70.0% 121 80 66.1% 17 6 40 29 11
42 24-Oct-06 97 57 58.8% 78 47 60.3% 148 100 67.6% 127 80 63.0% 19 10 40 31 9
43 31-Oct-06 103 60 58.3% 85 47 55.3% 150 102 68.0% 127 80 63.0% 18 13 43 38 5
44 07-Nov-06 105 60 57.1% 88 48 54.5% 150 102 68.0% 127 80 63.0% 17 12 45 40 5
45 14-Nov-06 115 70 60.9% 101 58 57.4% 150 102 68.0% 127 80 63.0% 14 12 45 43 2
46 21-Nov-06 117 72 61.5% 110 66 60.0% 155 105 67.7% 132 83 62.9% 7 6 45 44 1
47 28-Nov-06 132 83 62.9% 115 67 58.3% 155 105 67.7% 132 83 62.9% 17 16 49 48 1
48 05-Dec-06 137 84 61.3% 122 71 58.2% 155 105 67.7% 132 83 62.9% 15 13 53 51 2
49 12-Dec-06 143 89 62.2% 127 75 59.1% 152 100 65.8% 133 82 61.7% 16 14 54 52 2
50 19-Dec-06 152 96 63.2% 133 79 59.4% 173 108 62.4% 188 122 64.9% 19 17 56 54 2
51 26-Dec-06 154 98 63.6% 135 81 60.0% 173 108 62.4% 188 122 64.9% 19 17 56 54 2
52 02-Jan-07 154 98 63.6% 136 82 60.3% 169 102 60.4% 196 127 64.8% 18 16 56 54 2
53 09-Jan-07 154 98 63.6% 137 83 60.6% 170 102 60.0% 214 144 67.3% 17 15 56 54 2
54 16-Jan-07 161 104 64.6% 142 86 60.6% 173 102 59.0% 218 145 66.5% 19 18 57 56 1
55 23-Jan-07 165 105 63.6% 154 95 61.7% 177 104 58.8% 216 141 65.3% 11 10 60 59 1
56 30-Jan-07 172 106 61.6% 164 98 59.8% 182 108 59.3% 219 143 65.3% 8 8 66 66 0
57 06-Feb-07 173 107 61.8% 170 104 61.2% 182 109 59.9% 222 147 66.2% 3 3 66 66 0
58 13-Feb-07 175 107 61.1% 183 114 62.3% 202 128 63.4% 217 141 65.0% -8 -7 68 69 -1
59 20-Feb-07 176 107 60.8% 187 117 62.6% 203 128 63.1% 228 151 66.2% -11 -10 69 70 -1
60 27-Feb-07 180 107 59.4% 192 118 61.5% 211 134 63.5% 232 153 65.9% -12 -11 73 74 -1
61 06-Mar-07 180 107 59.4% 192 118 61.5% 219 133 60.7% 243 155 63.8% -12 -11 73 74 -1
62 13-Mar-07 180 107 59.4% 196 122 62.2% 220 133 60.5% 245 156 63.7% -16 -15 73 74 -1
63 20-Mar-07 180 107 59.4% 201 127 63.2% 237 144 60.8% 261 166 63.6% -21 -20 73 74 -1
64 27-Mar-07 184 108 58.7% 207 130 62.8% 240 147 61.3% 265 170 64.2% -23 -22 76 77 -1
65 03-Apr-07 185 109 58.9% 211 134 63.5% 236 142 60.2% 270 174 64.4% -26 -25 76 77 -1
66 10-Apr-07 188 109 58.0% 215 134 62.3% 238 143 60.1% 273 176 64.5% -27 -25 79 81 -2
67 17-Apr-07 194 114 58.8% 217 134 61.8% 240 143 59.6% 275 176 64.0% -23 -20 80 83 -3
68 24-Apr-07 200 118 59.0% 224 139 62.1% 242 144 59.5% 276 176 63.8% -24 -21 82 85 -3
69 01-May-07 207 121 58.5% 227 140 61.7% 262 156 59.5% 287 181 63.1% -20 -19 86 87 -1
70 08-May-07 207 121 58.5% 231 144 62.3% 268 160 59.7% 286 178 62.2% -24 -23 86 87 -1
71 15-May-07 210 121 57.6% 235 145 61.7% 279 169 60.6% 290 180 62.1% -25 -24 89 90 -1
72 22-May-07 220 126 57.3% 244 149 61.1% 281 169 60.1% 294 181 61.6% -24 -23 94 95 -1
73 29-May-07 226 132 58.4% 248 153 61.7% 292 176 60.3% 301 185 61.5% -22 -21 94 95 -1
74 05-Jun-07 235 136 57.9% 258 157 60.9% 296 178 60.1% 303 185 61.1% -23 -21 99 101 -2
75 12-Jun-07 246 145 58.9% 266 163 61.3% 296 178 60.1% 303 185 61.1% -20 -18 101 103 -2
76 19-Jun-07 247 146 59.1% 267 164 61.4% 304 179 58.9% 314 189 60.2% -20 -18 101 103 -2
77 26-Jun-07 260 157 60.4% 269 164 61.0% 303 180 59.4% 316 193 61.1% -9 -7 103 105 -2
78 03-Jul-07 264 157 59.5% 273 166 60.8% 309 183 59.2% 319 192 60.2% -9 -9 107 107 0
79 10-Jul-07 269 161 59.9% 274 166 60.6% 311 183 58.8% 327 198 60.6% -5 -5 108 108 0
80 17-Jul-07 269 161 59.9% 277 169 61.0% 313 183 58.5% 337 206 61.1% -8 -8 108 108 0
81 24-Jul-07 280 169 60.4% 281 170 60.5% 327 187 57.2% 349 209 59.9% -1 -1 111 111 0
82 31-Jul-07 286 173 60.5% 284 171 60.2% 336 188 56.0% 372 226 60.8% 2 2 113 113 0
83 07-Aug-07 288 173 60.1% 287 172 59.9% 341 192 56.3% 380 231 60.8% 1 1 115 115 0
84 14-Aug-07 293 177 60.4% 294 178 60.5% 341 192 56.3% 380 231 60.8% -1 -1 116 116 0
85 21-Aug-07 293 177 60.4% 298 182 61.1% 353 204 57.8% 395 247 62.5% -5 -5 116 116 0
86 28-Aug-07 298 181 60.7% 298 182 61.1% 355 206 58.0% 398 250 62.8% 0 -1 117 116 1
87 04-Sep-07 299 181 60.5% 302 185 61.3% 356 207 58.1% 404 256 63.4% -3 -4 118 117 1
88 11-Sep-07 301 181 60.1% 305 186 61.0% 362 207 57.2% 418 256 61.2% -4 -5 120 119 1
89 18-Sep-07 311 184 59.2% 316 190 60.1% -5 -6 127 126 1
90 25-Sep-07 321 190 59.2% 324 194 59.9% -3 -4 131 130 1
91 02-Oct-07 324 191 59.0% 334 202 60.5% -10 -11 133 132 1
92 09-Oct-07 326 192 58.9% 344 211 61.3% -18 -19 134 133 1
93 16-Oct-07 330 194 58.8% 350 215 61.4% -20 -21 136 135 1
94 23-Oct-07 341 198 58.1% 365 224 61.4% -24 -26 143 141 2
95 30-Oct-07 345 200 58.0% 378 226 59.8% -33 -26 145 152 -7
96 06-Nov-07 346 200 57.8% 387 234 60.5% -41 -34 146 153 -7
97 13-Nov-07 352 203 57.7% 398 242 60.8% -46 -39 149 156 -7
98 20-Nov-07 355 204 57.5% 405 247 61.0% -50 -43 151 158 -7
99 27-Nov-07 358 206 57.5% 406 247 60.8% -48 -41 152 159 -7
100 04-Dec-07 359 207 57.7% 412 253 61.4% -53 -46 152 159 -7
101 11-Dec-07 361 207 57.3% 417 256 61.4% -56 -49 154 161 -7
102 18-Dec-07 362 207 57.2% 418 256 61.2% -56 -49 155 162 -7
103 25-Dec-07 362 207 57.2% 418 256 61.2% -56 -49 155 162 -7


http://members.aol.com/sawyeriii/images/hdbrtot88.gif

This is a graph that points out the following...

Total HD-DVD titles launched and scheduled. (with monthly trendlines)
Total Blu-Ray titles launched and scheduled. (with monthly trendlines)
Where would Blu-Ray be now if it launched at the same time as HD-DVD?
Running difference of the totals between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. (with quarterly trendlines)

But how could this be?, PS3, err, I mean Blu-Ray has much greater studio support than HD-DVD. It must be Microsoft Excel screwing up the numbers. :D

Great post. :)

Great work Robert.

Cause Universal is trying to make HD DVD win,so they are pumping out the discs as fast and as much as possible.

For a format launch, all that matters is that consumers see that there is a critical mass of movies available that they want to watch. If there are 10 on the shelf, the perception might be that there is a problem. If there are one hundred on the shelf, the buyers perception might be that they are more available that they can watch.

One theory I have is that soon HD DVD will have enough movies out there that people will say " there's a lot of movies out already, more than I have time to watch right now" so that studio support will not be perceived as an issue.

One problem that Blu-ray has now, is despite the fact of more announced studio support, and Blu-ray trumpeting of that fact, that there are noticably less Blu-ray movies available at Amazon and retail stores than in the HD DVD format.

Yeah, there are a few less (less than 20). Not bad considering they started later.

While the critical mass is important (and I think that this is reached for both formats) the next question becomes what the titles are.

For me neither side has released that one title that makes it a clear choice. And Universal may come closest with the release of Kong.

In any case I am looking forward to see how this chart changes over time too.

Cheers!

In the data field I shall add a totals graph which whill show 4 points...


Total HD-DVD titles launched and scheduled. (with monthly trendlines)
Total Blu-Ray titles launched and scheduled. (with monthly trendlines)
Where would Blu-Ray be now if it launched at the same time as HD-DVD?
Running difference of the totals between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. (with quarterly trendlines)


The results are very interesting.

Great work!

I believe if the Add-on counter-balances the impact of The PS3... if Universal (and smaller studios) keeps the number of titles available higher than BD... if more cheap (and cheaper) HD-DVD stand alone players (and recorders) become available... if people with combo discs decide to buy a player (the combo is an overlooked weapon!!!)... if marketing is more efficient...

HD-DVD will beat BD's higher support and more aggressive marketing.

I think it's possible that if they launched at the same time, HD would have put titles out at a faster rate. Look what they did when they had no competition. BD had (has) to do a catch-up game, so naturally they pushed their output (with quality problems).

Certainly no visible impact of "greater studio support"

If the HD-DVD add on will be playable in Vista OS, then this is a major boon for HD-DVD.

Why is MS subsidizing them I wonder?

Why is MS subsidizing them I wonder?

Who told you the add-on is being subsidized ? :p

For a format launch, all that matters is that consumers see that there is a critical mass of movies available that they want to watch. If there are 10 on the shelf, the perception might be that there is a problem. If there are one hundred on the shelf, the buyers perception might be that they are more available that they can watch.

This is true. When I talk to people and tell them 100 hd dvd movies are already released, they are always surprised ...

Who told you the add-on is being subsidized ? :p

At $200 for an HD-DVD drive + usb enclosure + usb hub the costs of the build of materials for these devices should be >$200, unless I am mistaken. I doubt that they are making any money on it reguardless.

I could be wrong? ;)

I don't think it is subsedized. But at 200$ I agree, unlike other accessories, it is not a cash cow.

This is true. When I talk to people and tell them 100 hd dvd movies are already released, they are always surprised ...


Well, it is surprising! Considering the number of players launched and sold on both sides compared to the number of DVD's launched for the same player penetration, this is pretty nice for early adopters - I remember not having much to choose from the first few months. Walking through Best Buy, both BluRay and HD-DVD had two+ shelves of movies devoted to each.

How the picture stands now is interesting but I still think the PS3 (and now the HD add-on) will be the biggest determiner of how this whole thing will shake out.

The add on is obviously an HD-DVD player through and through - anyone buying one is obviously using it for one purpose, so the studios will react toward it's numbers accordingly and possibly ramp up HD-DVD releases beyond what they are now.

The PS3 is the big question mark, more for studios than customers. Will the studios put out enough titles and copies of each to support the PS3 at all, or will they wait to see what the adoption rate is? If they go halfway in between, will the additional support overcome the current lead of HD-DVD or just match it.

And the big question; how low does the PS3 movie adoption need to be and/or how high does the Add-on sales need to be to sway Disney.

unless I am mistaken.

And your experience and background is ... ?

edit : do you work for altex.com ?

The PS3 is the big question mark, more for studios than customers. Will the studios put out enough titles and copies of each to support the PS3 at all, or will they wait to see what the adoption rate is? If they go halfway in between, will the additional support overcome the current lead of HD-DVD or just match it.

They will have some forecast based on MR ...

And your experience and background is ... ?

edit : do you work for altex.com ?

Yes, I work for Altex Electronics while finishing my masters in electrical engineering at UT San Antonio.

I have done a lot of research into current and past market stratagies to try and forcast what is going to happen with this format war for a school paper.
The paper & blog about related info (http://journals.aol.com/sawyeriii/robert-sawyers-thoughts/)

The BOM(build of materials) at current prices for the drives (Blu-Ray and HD-DVD) are still very high. iSupply performed a teardown of Toshiba's 1st gen HD-DVD player and found that the cost of the parts and materials in the player was about ~$170 more than the selling price of the player itself.

At $200 for an HD-DVD drive + usb enclosure + usb hub the costs of the build of materials for these devices should be >$200, unless I am mistaken. I doubt that they are making any money on it reguardless.

I could be wrong? ;)
A USB hub and USB enclosure is next to nothing. The bulk of the cost (besides the remote, and temporarily the free King Kong HD DVD) is the optical drive itself.

iSuppli did say they felt the original NEC drive in the Toshiba HD-A1 was $200:

http://www.eetasia.com/ARTICLES/2006JUN/5/EEOL_2006JUN27_OPT_NT_01.jpg

However, I'd be surprised if the new Toshiba drive in the 360 add-on costs that much to produce. I do agree though it's quite possible neither Toshiba nor MS are making much off this 360 HD DVD drive, especially in Canada where the price of the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on drive is only US$179 (including remote and free disc).

The BOM(build of materials) at current prices for the drives (Blu-Ray and HD-DVD) are still very high. iSupply performed a teardown of Toshiba's 1st gen HD-DVD player and found that the cost of the parts and materials in the player was about ~$170 more than the selling price of the player itself.

iSuppli did say they felt the original NEC drive in the Toshiba HD-A1 was $200

iSupply is good when it comes to products using well known components. But for brand new ones like this - it will have no idea and can be very wrong. The price negotiated between NEC & Toshiba or Toshiba & MS are bound to be closely held secrets.

The PS3 is the big question mark, more for studios than customers. Will the studios put out enough titles and copies of each to support the PS3 at all, or will they wait to see what the adoption rate is? If they go halfway in between, will the additional support overcome the current lead of HD-DVD or just match it.
The stores have built up an inventory of unsold BD titles, which may handle initial demand.

Great work!

I believe if the Add-on counter-balances the impact of The PS3... if Universal (and smaller studios) keeps the number of titles available higher than BD... if more cheap (and cheaper) HD-DVD stand alone players (and recorders) become available... if people with combo discs decide to buy a player (the combo is an overlooked weapon!!!)... if marketing is more efficient...

HD-DVD will beat BD's higher support and more aggressive marketing.

That is a lot of if's! ;)

I would be interested to know if there are any people buying the combo discs as 'future' proofing.

It seems to me that the choice of a $20 DVD or a $40 combo disc to future proof with a system that may be the next format is not gonna work out favouring the combo disc.

I already have an HD DVD player and refuse to pay extra for combo discs.

So... does anyone know of anyone with no HD DVD player buying combo discs? I'm just curious...

However, I'd be surprised if the new Toshiba drive in the 360 add-on costs that much to produce. I do agree though it's quite possible neither Toshiba nor MS are making much off this 360 HD DVD drive, especially in Canada where the price of the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on drive is only US$179 (including remote and free disc).

With the estimated price at say $150-200, the power brick at $10-20, the usb, pcb, case and passives at $10-20 (totaling $170-240 with out labor, packaging, and transportation costs), can we really say that microsoft is working in the black on this product.

I will admit that the refinement of manufacturing will probally get the HD-DVD into the black with-in a year, but it won't be untill late next year untill the total losses on the unit are approaching black.

The question would be...

Why does Microsoft want another hardware device with an extended (1+ year) ROI?

The question would be...


The real question would be

Why do you pretend to know the cost of hd dvd drive ? :p

Look at Canadian price - that should give you a clue.

iSupply is good when it comes to products using well known components. But for brand new ones like this - it will have no idea and can be very wrong. The price negotiated between NEC & Toshiba or Toshiba & MS are bound to be closely held secrets.

In reguards to the new, unknown component costs involved in the drive, the drives are not such a significant departure from current drives that their components can not be estimated too. For HD-DVD the optical pickup is identical with the exception of the laser diode itself, Blu-Ray adds more complexity on top of that because of the different NA lens used with the pickup.

The real question would be
Why do you pretend to know the cost of hd dvd drive ? :p
Look at Canadian price - that should give you a clue.


I don't pretent to know the cost of the drive and am trying to make educated guesses with all the information available. That information is leading me to believe that Microsoft is going to sell these units at a loss untill manufacturing costs can come down.

In the game console market it very common to LOSE MONEY on the equipment for the first year+ because of the importance of network effects.

Network effects can be described as this... Most people get a telephone not because the technology by itself is important, but the fact that with it (now adays) you can talk to anyone in the world, i.e. this is why video-phones have failed numerous times in the past, because the equipment is useless without people to call.

The difference here is that Microsoft IS PROBALLY LOSING MONEY from these inital sales of these units, which is an acceptable business model to get the equipment out there if you have a stake in the software(media) to recoup the costs faster than waiting untill the costs of manufacturing decreases enough to make profit from the equipment sales themselves.

The reasons for the price differences around the world are that marketing professionals feel that people will accept a prices of 199 (or 20999JPN) better that 253EU (23270JPN).


The question rephrased...

Is Microsoft going to try to make their money by concentrating on bring the manufacturing costs down, or are they getting (or forcasting) another stream of revenue from the media to be sold from these players.

Note: Transporter 2 was listed twice in December, so I corrected this week & last.

In reguards to the new, unknown component costs involved in the drive, the drives are not such a significant departure from current drives that their components can not be estimated too. For HD-DVD the optical pickup is identical with the exception of the laser diode itself, Blu-Ray adds more complexity on top of that because of the different NA lens used with the pickup.

You are going along the right path. Just ask yourself if the OPU is so smilar to DVD why should HD DVD drive be $190 more than a DVD-ROM ? ;)


I don't pretent to know the cost of the drive and am trying to make educated guesses with all the information available. That information is leading me to believe that Microsoft is going to sell these units at a loss untill manufacturing costs can come down.

See above. Tell me your logic why it should be $190 more than DVD (actually dvd-rom can be had for cheaper, but I'm putting $10).


In the game console market it very common to LOSE MONEY on the equipment for the first year+ because of the importance of network effects.

But as you know accessories always make a healthy profit.

The reasons for the price differences around the world are that marketing professionals feel that people will accept a prices of 199 (or 20999JPN) better that 253EU (23270JPN).

Actually if you see the Canadian price - people are surprised. Traditionally Canadians have come to expect higher price than US ...


The question rephrased...

Is Microsoft going to try to make their money by concentrating on bring the manufacturing costs down, or are they getting (or forcasting) another stream of revenue from the media to be sold from these players.

In this particular instance - since most of the cost is in the drive - bringing the cost down entirely depends on the HD DVD drive cost - which MS can't directly control. And MS doesn't make any money on HD DVDs (well minimal anyway). So you would have to restart and look at your assumptions.

Now that iSupply and the costs of Blue Laser OPU's has been discussed a little more, is it so inconceviable that the HD-DVD IS that much more than a DVD OPU?

IIRC, the iSupply figure for the bd-rom in ps3 is 125. Given that BD is more complicated than hd dvd, pick your number for hd dvd drive.

Given that BD is more complicated than hd dvd, pick your number for hd dvd drive.


how do you know that?

1) we now know the PS3 uses a single lense
2) we know it uses a single laser mechanisme.

What makes it cheaper (less complex)?


as for the HD DVD add-on, it is more then just a drive , once we decide the drive, you also need to add the rest because it is external and needs to have extras that support HD DVD on a 360 that a normal drive doesn't.

-----------------
I don't know (and don't think) it is subsedized, but I think one thing is clear that M is not making $ on it and the vendors will probably not make the same margins as other accessories.

how do you know that?

Tighter tolerences.

I don't know (and don't think) it is subsedized, but I think one thing is clear that M is not making $ on it and the vendors will probably not make the same margins as other accessories.

Agreed.

Universal may come closest with the release of Kong.

It's just a shame they couldn't fit a lossless TrueHD track on that HD30.

Tighter tolerences.



Agreed.


Tighter tolerances that should increase cost of the PS3 vs HD DVD and that was also responsible for the manufacturing delays.

Sorry about the delay, it is finals week. Here is last week's. The source information has not changed in 3 weeks so it's fairly easy to keep up with.

Went back a reanalyzed the data, it created a very interesting change in the way the formats came to the points they are at.

You will see on Tuesday.

What do you think about the current trend of HD-DVD's unique titles leveling off and Blu-Ray's titles still increasing?

I'm starting to think the war is pointless. Like Xbox360 and PS3, bluray and HD-DVD will both have a place in many, many homes. Both will have exclusive content that will make you want one system or format over the other. But in the end, hardcore gamers will buy both. Hardcore movie watchers will also buy both.

It pretty much tells me I'll be picking up a PS3 sooner rather than later. I imagine Casino Royale will do me in.

I'll pick up the HD DVD add-on once somethin intriguing from Weinstein or Universal drops that I can't get on BD.

If BD's number of unique titles continues to rise as their total number of titles available rises, surley their will be a distinct dichotomy between the formats to having or not having the titles one is interested in.

Will sales people at big box retail outlets start saying "Yea, you could get the cheeper high def player, but you won't find the titles you like on it, so let me show you this player..."

The informed consumer may or may not agree with the salespersons assessment but what about the uninformed?

As a format agnostic for the time being, I'd say even a informed consumer would have to give pause if the trend continues as such.

I honestly don't see an issue with a consumer following the studios he wants and the titles he wants. Its his decision, his vote. All it does is show that BD might have been right and content was king. Really though, who knows at this poing?

I can't tell if you're inferring that the informed consumer would naturally chose HD DVD, but that's what it sounded like to me. Or maybe that the uninformed would ignorantly chose BD over the superior HD DVD. Apologies if that's not what you meant.

Its made us waiting out the war go into a holding pattern and feel tempted. I tend to own mostly Warner/New Line, Sony/Columbia, Fox, and Disney movies. So you can see my dilemma. I want to chose HD DVD simply for the cost, but 5 dollars more for movies just doesn't seem a lot relative to when I was dropping $25 and $29 on DVDs back in the day. As a gamer, it makes the PS3 seem a more reasonable investment despite the dearth of games. I can't decide. Till then, back to SD DVD and 360 goodness.

The informed consumer may or may not agree with the salespersons assessment but what about the uninformed?

They may be able to suppress HD DVD player sales, but not necessarily sell more BD players. Even the most uninformed buyer knows the salesmen try to push more expensive items ... they aren't going to spend hundreds more just because of a sales push.

If BD's number of unique titles continues to rise as their total number of titles available rises, surley their will be a distinct dichotomy between the formats to having or not having the titles one is interested in.

Will sales people at big box retail outlets start saying "Yea, you could get the cheeper high def player, but you won't find the titles you like on it, so let me show you this player..."

The informed consumer may or may not agree with the salespersons assessment but what about the uninformed?

I suspect the salesman who wants to close the sale will not want to point out this aspect of the player. Whether the victim (er, prospect) wants the red or blue format, pointing out this tiny detail will make him most likely delay that decision.

Pretty soon, if enough people return players of either format, it's going to be difficult to hide this problem from J6P.

As a format agnostic for the time being, I'd say even a informed consumer would have to give pause if the trend continues as such.

I honestly don't see an issue with a consumer following the studios he wants and the titles he wants. Its his decision, his vote. All it does is show that BD might have been right and content was king. Really though, who knows at this poing?

I can't tell if you're inferring that the informed consumer would naturally chose HD DVD, but that's what it sounded like to me. Or maybe that the uninformed would ignorantly chose BD over the superior HD DVD. Apologies if that's not what you meant.

Its made us waiting out the war go into a holding pattern and feel tempted. I tend to own mostly Warner/New Line, Sony/Columbia, Fox, and Disney movies. So you can see my dilemma. I want to chose HD DVD simply for the cost, but 5 dollars more for movies just doesn't seem a lot relative to when I was dropping $25 and $29 on DVDs back in the day. As a gamer, it makes the PS3 seem a more reasonable investment despite the dearth of games. I can't decide. Till then, back to SD DVD and 360 goodness.

But the real problem is that most consumers are not informed. Some even complain after the fact that they already have a red player and want to play these blue movies, so they start petitions, stand outside supermarkets handing out fliers. Pretty much in crusade mode, confusing the hell out of everyone.

I remember clearly the long running joke from the beta-vhs war about how uninformed grandpa was about technology. A family friend who wanted to buy a player, asked him which player to get, he looked at the TV set we had (which he liked) and said SONY! It was only after the friend got the sony player and rented his first movie and called to ask why the tape was too big to go in that we realized what happened.

This will probably get repeated to many people as very few were old enough to know what the vhs betamax format war really was about.

History does repeat it's self doesn't it.

In reguards to this post, the question is...

HD-DVD has had the lions share of titles (unique & otherwise) since the start, but the trend is reversing, so when will it be accepted (at the current trend rates) that if you have to choose 1 format, which one has the best possibilities of having the movies you want to see (assuming they do not know which studios they tend to get themselves)?

I guess around the middle of the year. How about you?

Yes, if HD DVD has slowed the race to announce and release new titles then they will be in trouble in a very few months.

- Tom

Sorry for the delay, I captured Tuesdays info and will process it tonight.

BD drives are not significantly more complicated than HD DVD drives. Where does this myth keep coming from??? BD pressing is more complicated than HD DVD pressing, so the disks are more expensive, but the drives are not significantly different in cost to produce.

BD drives are not significantly more complicated than HD DVD drives. Where does this myth keep coming from??? BD pressing is more complicated than HD DVD pressing, so the disks are more expensive, but the drives are not significantly different in cost to produce.

Exactly.

If HD DVD hardware is so cheap and easy to make, where are all the HD DVD-ROM and HD DVD burner drives?

What possible strategy could Toshiba be using that would keep it from exploiting the PC space?

Gary

BD drives are not significantly more complicated than HD DVD drives. Where does this myth keep coming from???

This is not a myth to people who know engineering.

BD needs to read from different depth (compared to DVD). HD DVD reads from the same depth as DVD. That makes BD more complicated.

Can you explain why early BD drives would not read CD ... as you can see in Sony & Pio BD players ?

I think it is ok for BD to be more complicated than HD DVD if it offers other advantages in capacity and bitrate.

Increased complexity is an indication of improvement - things get more complex all the time and the technology to make these things tracks that.

That is the beauty of technology.

VC-1 is more complicated than MPEG2 - you don't see Microsoft complaining about that - in that case it is a improvement! ;)

Increased complexity is an indication of improvement - things get more complex all the time and the technology to make these things tracks that.


at what cost?

If you are an engineer, you should realize that something which gets the job done in a simpler fashion is less prone to problems, generally requires less resources, and is typically a better 'engineering' solution.

so Nataraj are you an engineer?

so Nataraj are you an engineer?

Ofcourse. I was even considering joining TI since I was into VLSI.

VC-1 is more complicated than MPEG2 - you don't see Microsoft complaining about that - in that case it is a improvement! ;)

Yes, but it is a one time R&D investment. You can search for my posts about the two different ways the formats have approached it - playing to their individual streangths ... s/w & h/w..

This is not a myth to people who know engineering.

BD needs to read from different depth (compared to DVD). HD DVD reads from the same depth as DVD. That makes BD more complicated.

Can you explain why early BD drives would not read CD ... as you can see in Sony & Pio BD players ?


Besides the different depths that the formats are being read at (with CD close to the surface of the label side, DVD and HD-DVD close to the middle {with YD-DVD slightly closer to the laser side}, and Blu-Ray almost at the surface of the laser side) this introduced a new layer of complexity of the media manufacturers...

With the Blu-Ray being so close to the laser side, it would be extremely susceptible to surface scraches so the had to come out with the hard coat technologies to protect the surface. TDK calls theirs DURABISII, Imation's is Forcefield, etc.

The advancement of that technology has backwards compatability. I has ~100 DVD-R's with the DURABIS coating and use them for my tech maintenance kit and put my home movies on to them for longevity.

The other main difference is the fact that HD-DVD, DVD, and CD all use lenses with the same numerical apature (NA), which means that to position the lens in the correct position for those different media you only have to shift the lens towards or away from the surface proportional to the distance between their respective layers. Blu-Ray has a different NA, so it's focus point is closer to the lens (there are multiple reasons for this that I will only discuss if asked). This means that if we tried to focus the lens on the HD-DVD or DVD layer we will be getting much closer to the surface of the disk than normal, and to focus on the CD layer we would be technically "inside"/touching the disk.

With this in mind we ask ourselves... Are they using 2 optical lenses or something else?

I know that Ricoh developed a diffracted optics lens that has different focal lengths (NA's) based on the wavelength of the light going through it, are they using that? LG probally is.

So the answer is MYTH CONFIRMED to an extent... The question that Nataraj and I have discussed before is how much is the cost of the optical assembly compared to the total cost of the entire machine.


Personally I believe that the reason for the huge price gap is more economic than technical. With only 1 (prior to CES) producer of HD-DVD drives, Toshiba, they have a HUGE vested interest in getting the drives out into the wild so the media producing companies will see that there is a reason to put their content on this format. With this in mind it has been shown that Toshiba is selling their players of less than it costs to produce them (iSupply), which while very common for the Game Console Industry it is not very common for the Consumer Electronics Industry (especially the 'high end' electronics). The other companies that are producing the BD drives do not have the same vested interest in the market as Toshiba so they are following traditional high end consumer electronics profit margins. The rub is that with 4+ companies producing different BD players eventually (it looks like its starting to happen now) they will start competing for the consumers dollars between themselves which will bring profit margins down even as cost can come down from manufacturing improvements.

Any comments on the previous post about ...

Unique format title Quantity
Blu-Ray (Warner) 0
HD-DVD (Warner) 21
Blu-Ray (Other) 7
HD-DVD (Other) 20
?

Ofcourse. I was even considering joining TI since I was into VLSI.

might have been obvious to you, but I don't remember you ever mentioning it before. With MS being mostly a SW company and most HW farmed out, Engineering isn't the first thing that pops into peoples mind

Next week HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will be ~tied for the number of unique titles!!! Then it looks like from this point on Blu-Ray will carry the title.

It is intresting that even though they are increasing their total number of titles their percent of unique title is increasing too, while HD-DVD's is trending towards dropping.

This is it!

Our "official" records show that Blu-Ray has surpassed HD-DVD in uniqueness AND total available media. Could we mark this week as the beginning of the end of the HD-DVD format?

I still be feel that the general public / mass media will declare a winner to the format wars with the results of the christmas returns of 2007, i.e. around/after CES 2008.

Our "official" records show that Blu-Ray has surpassed HD-DVD in uniqueness AND total available media. Could we mark this week as the beginning of the end of the HD-DVD format?

How so ? When HD DVD was leading I don't remember you makring any week as the beginning of the end of BD ....

This is it!

Our "official" records show that Blu-Ray has surpassed HD-DVD in uniqueness AND total available media. Could we mark this week as the beginning of the end of the HD-DVD format?

I still be feel that the general public / mass media will declare a winner to the format wars with the results of the christmas returns of 2007, i.e. around/after CES 2008.

People have been marking the begining of the end of HD DVD format about every 6 months. I hadn't realized you were one of those people

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??

Find out what movies you want and will want and use that as a guide.

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??

It may be a long time before the war is over. My opinion is you're better off buying something now and enjoying it. It may very well turn out that both formats co-exist, - some future players can play both formats, some of the future disc will have both formats on them. Or both could die out. It's too soon to tell right now.

That being said, you can probably get an HD DVD player cheaper than a BD player right now. On the other hand, in the future there may be more movies available on the BD format. If you are at all interested in gaming, the PS3 is a reasonably priced console/game machine rolled into one, and it's not that expensive. Blu-ray probably won't die, so that is a fairly safe choice.

The glass is half full. Maybe 3/4 full. We have more HD content, and better quality content, every day. Get something, anything and get going.

My final recommendation is this - if you don't mind having a game machine as your primary movie console, get the PS3 and go blu-ray. If you don't like having a game machine, and/or want to save a little money, go HD DVD. But be advised, It's my opinion that of the two formats, HD DVD is a bit more likely to go under than BD at this time.

People have been marking the begining of the end of HD DVD format about every 6 months. I hadn't realized you were one of those people

Very true. Like this poll from 10/3/05. A majority had voted yes ...

Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148

Very true. Like this poll from 10/3/05. A majority had voted yes ...

Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148

Ha ha! Classic.

Ha ha! Classic. Before my time here on this side of the AVS forum.

I was still happily posting away on the non-controversial sub $3500 front projector threads. :) Ah, those were my happy low post count , everybody loved me days.

Then I discovered the wild side of AVS. :eek: here in the Blu-ray & HD DVD Areas, and AVS posting life has never been the same.

What's funny about that thread is if you start reading some of the the posts in it.

Coffee spewing funny. :D

How so ? When HD DVD was leading I don't remember you makring any week as the beginning of the end of BD ....

People have been marking the begining of the end of HD DVD format about every 6 months. I hadn't realized you were one of those people

Since I have been tracking the numbers, HD-DVD has always been in the lead for uniqueness and total media, so if there was any date that could be chalked up as the end of Blu-Ray it was from day 1 of the first HD-DVD release. Choosing that date as the end of a format before it has even launched would not be realistic.

I have been crunching these numbers since September and have seen the HD-DVD uniqueness numbers consistantly drop. Additionally looking at the trend lines forcast 3 mounths out, there seems to be a trend for Blu-Ray uniqueness to increase and HD-DVD to decrease.

I know that mid-november shows another crossing of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD but at that time it looked like this...

http://members.aol.com/sawyeriii/images/hdvsbr2.gif

..which shows that there is no very clear pattern at that time. This is why I have been taking these 'snapshots' every week for posterity.

As for my prediction, it was from a paper I wrote for my Spring 2006 final essay.

Here is the concluding paragraph...

Up until mid 2005 both camps, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, tried to reconcile their differences to prevent the format war that is rapidly approaching. Neither side would yield to the other and no compromise was ever met. They have decided to meet each others on the field of battle, where we the consumer shall decide the winner by which we decide to buy. With one battle reaching deeply into many different arena’s it will indeed be costly for the loser involved, including the consumerswho buy into it. This war will not be finished for many years, but once the Christmas 2007 returns are in there will be no turning back. The format that take the stance of substantially increasing its advertising is probably the one heading out the door, as Sony did before the collapse of the BetaMax format. So advertisers get your marketing pitch ready for HD-DVD because Sony will not be crying out to the consumers this time .

Here is the entire paper...
Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD: A Market Analysis (http://hometown.aol.com/sawyeriii/bluvshd.pdf)

HD-DVD is closing the gap.

Maybe not.

Personally I believe that the reason for the huge price gap is more economic than technical. With only 1 (prior to CES) producer of HD-DVD drives, Toshiba, they have a HUGE vested interest in getting the drives out into the wild so the media producing companies will see that there is a reason to put their content on this format. With this in mind it has been shown that Toshiba is selling their players of less than it costs to produce them (iSupply), which while very common for the Game Console Industry it is not very common for the Consumer Electronics Industry (especially the 'high end' electronics). The other companies that are producing the BD drives do not have the same vested interest in the market as Toshiba so they are following traditional high end consumer electronics profit margins. The rub is that with 4+ companies producing different BD players eventually (it looks like its starting to happen now) they will start competing for the consumers dollars between themselves which will bring profit margins down even as cost can come down from manufacturing improvements.
?

lets put it this way

Toshiba controls the HD DVD market. They make more hardware as compare to all the BD CEs combined. Toshiba do not compete with HD DVD products from others.

BD CEs - hardware high cost, produce mere number of hardware, need to compete with NUMEROUS other manufacturers. If Panasonic or Sharp releases HD DVD players, i bet they can make tones of money as they are making off their BD players :p

I decided to advance the graph's lowest date forward for visual clarity reasons, however the data is still being entered in it's entirety. I will take suggestions/comments for or against this change.

Updated, sorry for the delay.

Robert, first of all it's commendable that you tried to write this paper and it seems like a decent effort to me. However, if I were grading it as a research paper I would point out the following:

1. Why do you belive that the uniqueness and total media metrics are so relevant at this stage. For instance, if you believe this is the case then the fact that these gaps are increasing between DVD and either of these formats means that HD optics in general are doomed?

2. What other historical data did you use to arrive at these metrics as being relevant. For instance, if one format has 10 titles and another has 50, people may care about the gap, but if one has 600 and the other has 720, it may not matter. For instance, a 20 year who dates a 10 year old will be in trouble, but a 60 year old who dates a 40 year old will not raise an eyebrow :)

3. Did you consider other metrics such as the $ spent per disk sold. For instance if you factor in the total sales & Marketing and player subsidy, what do you get? that would be a financial viability metric.

4. Did you consider the financial ability of people backing each format to continue to back it for a period of time.

5. Did you factor in the costs of production for each format? what are the short term and long term advantages of each?

6. OK. You do talk about Christmas spending being key. However, how many units do you think will be sold ? What % of households will have HD optical players? Is this % something that you can back up by saying, x% adoption is key since if we look at DVD v. VHS the critical share was x...after than VHS had lost and here is where marketing was the key...

I just noted these very quickly while waiting to pick up dinner from an Indian take out in Falls Church (Handi) :). But you get the idea....you have to consider more specific things before making a general conclusion. Your graph looks nice, but it's just another data point. JMHO.

Plazman:

The paper I wrote(Early Spring 06) for school was in regards to the how the network effect will play a huge part in the upcoming battle between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray media. That paper was theorized by multiple case studys of VHS vs Beta, the Game console wars from the 90's to early 00's, and the adoption of computer DVD drives over CD-drives during the same period. Though I know that it had grammatical errors (that I missed before turning in) I stand behind that quality of the research that I invested into the effort. I felt at the time that with the traditional adoption rates of consumer electronics which have a 2+ year acceptance before starting to become mainstream and the traditional adoption rates for Game Consoles which is almost immediately mainstream the PS3 was going to play a critical role in the MAJORITY acceptance of Blu-Ray as the High Def DVD standard of the masses.
All this was theorized and written BEFORE the following occurences:
The price of the PS3 was announced
The lack of the quantity of promised PS3 became evident
The slow rollout of Blu-Ray titles was observed
The lower quality transfers onto Blu-Ray were observed
The low yields on the Royal Blue laser diodes
The XBOX360 HD-DVD drive was announced
The bad press of the Sony battery recall
The cost differences between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray players and drives was observed.
The ENORMOUS drop in prices of HD LCD tv's

Try to go back to that time and consider the limited metrics I had to work with and the unforseen problems that have arisen since then. My original supposition was that by the Christmas returns of 2007 the majority will have spoken and declared Blu-Ray the winner.
Note: Not that blu-ray will have won, but the public perception (because of the network effect) will be that the only real format out there will be Blu-Ray

THIS thread is related to a secondary notion that I just found very interesting and should not be used a the end all explanation on which format will win. The reason that I started it is that I found that though HD-DVD lead in the beginning I was interested in the rate of change of the formats positions, so I started charting it out and eventually decided that this forum might like to see the patterns and trends that I observed in Grubert's excellent charts.

Essentualy I made my bets back in March 06 and am using this as an excuse to continue to track the accuracy of my theory. Remember the actual written paper was written as a function of market forces and network effects based on historical precedents.

It would be interesting to write an addendum to the paper 2 years later and see what has transpired, but I am very wrapped up in my current courses as is, and keeping this updated every Wednesday morning has not occurred as often as I would like.

P.S. What did you get? My local Indian Restraunt has the best Chicken Tika Masala and Masala Chi in San Antonio.

Updated.

Do you think the 5% difference is material ?

1st As for changes from last week they were fairly significant by comparison to the regular changes I see.

2nd Mostly the important thing is keeping continuity, updating weekly as regularly as possible (or at least grabbing the info for processing later as regularly as possible).

So "Do you think the 5% difference is material ?", no I do not think it makes much difference in the realm of trying to answer questions about the format wars, but as someone who has been doing the work, following the numbers weekly since August 06, a jump is exciting.

I will try to contain my excitement forthwith. :rolleyes:

Updated:

I was a week behind in processing the data, but I pulled it on time, however I did two weeks of changes and forgot to get the graphs for that week, the data is still accurate however.

So "Do you think the 5% difference is material ?", no I do not think it makes much difference in the realm of trying to answer questions about the format wars, but as someone who has been doing the work, following the numbers weekly since August 06, a jump is exciting.

I will try to contain my excitement forthwith. :rolleyes:

I'm not trying to belittle your hard work. Sorry if thats how it felt.

I'm trying to figure out what the data means. It will be nice if you can analyse / interpret the data as well when you post.

Truth be told, I think that it is too soon to really be able to understand what the data means.

For example, I suppose that I could say that because of the Blu-Ray camp ramping up it's release of exclusive titles starting around early November it kept people from assuming the HD-DVD has "all" the titles. This could be marked as a turning point in the consumer consciousness.

I could also say that HD-DVD's slowing of the release of unique titles starting in mid-January could also be a sign of the tide turning to believe that HD-DVD may not be the final solution.

I could even say that Blu-Ray's current and announced release schedule's lack of commitment to exclusive titles shows that this 'war' will take a lot longer to resolve than everyone wishes.

But I won't say that (yet), I have data but not enough to make those kind of wild suppositions (don't think I ever will, from this data).

However I will say that though the changes that occur at the first two of these three points in time are at important, how important is yet to be seen.

All I really hope is that having this data available (even if it is empirical), will help me or someone else down the road back up a hypothesis of their own. For right now, I will gather, collect, and if interesting changes occur I will put a shout out.



The one thing that the data currently shows is that neither side has a commanding monopoly on the media itself at this point. If Blu-Ray or HD-DVD wants to take command of the consumers perceptions they (the production houses that are one format only) need to step up to the plate, what I see now is a lot of Warner and Paramount filling (buffering) the launches and Sony competing with Universal. Maybe a breakdown of which studio when (maybe later).


Nataraj: It did seem like a shot (at first) only because you are normaly more prolithic with your posts, but I realized otherwise once I quit overanalyzing it. :)

Until I can get my schedules worked out, I may be posting this bi-weekly, instead of weekly.

It takes 30 seconds to grab the info weekly, but about 30 minutes+ to compile and post it. So I will still grab the info weekly.

Here is the update.

This is a great thread, thanks for your work :)

Hey Robert, thanks for doing all this hard work (from a fellow San Antonian)!

Very true. Like this poll from 10/3/05. A majority had voted yes ...

Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=587148

I see. Of course you didn't mention the never ending supply of posts in 2006 claiming HD-DVD had won (before late November that was). It has gone both ways ;)

View Poll Results: Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point?
Yes 264 26.14%
No 746 73.86%

View Poll Results: Is HD DVD essentially dead in the water at this point?
Yes 264 26.14%
No 746 73.86%



How typical of you to totally miss the context and mispresent.

Since the above poll was an open ended poll - when I resurrected the poll to show the folly of many a BD fan - a lot of people voted without realizing it was an old poll.

Okay, after reading this thread I am even more confused...I am an average consumer trying to be better informed....In about a month I am going to be purchasing my first HD LCD and going back and forth on to also purchase the Blu ray or HD DVD player.....Any idea when this war will stop and be able to see who will come up on top??


If you want to see any Disney movie's (Pirates of the Carribean), Pixar movies (Finding Nemo, Monsters Inc), Fox movies (X-Men, Star Wars), or Sony movies (Spiderman, James Bond)..Then buy Blu-Ray

If you really love Universal Pictures (E.T., Jurrasic park, Jaws) titles above all the movie studio's above and can live without them, then go HD-DVD.

HD-DVD released = 203 / 121 / 59.6%
Blu-ray released = 232/ 148 / 63.8%

This doesn't make sense to me. It sounds to me like you're saying there are 82 HDDVD titles that are not exclusive to that format, but there are 84 bluray titles not exclusive to that format? Why are these 2 figures not the same?

This doesn't make sense to me. It sounds to me like you're saying there are 82 HDDVD titles that are not exclusive to that format, but there are 84 bluray titles not exclusive to that format? Why are these 2 figures not the same?

Good question. Apart from rounding errors - they should indeed be the same.

Good catch, let me verify...

On quick count (color search) I see that I missed one HD-DVD exclusive, but the difference is still off by two.

The uniqueness is time based, so for example when HD-DVD started it was at 100% like Blu-Ray, but it's starting point changed downwards over time, while Blu-Ray started at 100% will stay there because Sony will not release their titles on HD-DVD. Because of this only the total (i.e. announced) should have the correct non-unique number, because the matching title may not have launched yet.

I will continue to look for the discrepancy...

Sahara (Blu-Ray) is on the list twice 10/10 and 10/24

Found the other one...

12/05 Chronos (listed as exclusive HD-DVD), Chronos Blu-Ray came out 2/13

That should do it.

All right, I got Grupert to update the 2006 calander and I updated this weeks info.

I will use that simple check to help look for errors from now on, thanks for the help.

As an example... from 5Jun to 3Jul there will be a discrepancy between the counts because of the release time difference for Blood Diamond, the total difference is correct but the difference on those dates will be off by 1.

P.S. Those that want to see, use the Excel file I made to track this I am attaching it here, post later if you want it updated.

this is a great stat, thanks for it. I find it helpful once that discrepancy was fixed.

I am a little surprised though. I would expect there to be many more non exclusive titles than just 82.

To track down the errors, I has to count every one :eek: ...

if you look at the newest graph I added which is a breakdown by studio you see that Warner and Paramount together only average 4.5 titles each time they have a release. I guess I need to add the average number of days(or weeks) between releases by studio & format to be able to quantify this.

I'll get back to it.

Updated...

I observe that the lead Blu-Ray had is decreasing, I would figure with the number of studios in Blu-Ray's camp this would not be the case. Are Blu-Ray's backers not as dedicated as Universal?

*Fixed date

Updated...

I observe that the lead Blu-Ray had is decreasing, I would figure with the number of studios in Blu-Ray's camp this would not be the case. Are Blu-Ray's backers not as dedicated as Universal?

*Fixed date
Fox isn't putting much (anything?) out, and Disney has pulled a few titles.
J

Updated...

I observe that the lead Blu-Ray had is decreasing, I would figure with the number of studios in Blu-Ray's camp this would not be the case. Are Blu-Ray's backers not as dedicated as Universal?

not sure I understand your graph (or your comment) but if you are comparing announced with dates, then one of the main issue is that Fox and MGM pulled their movies until they get the BD+ code that will stop PC drive stealing of their content. Even though they are still slated, they no longer have known release dates (and we don’t know where Fox is in the process), while more or less at the same time Universal has started to re-release assuming AACS is no more an issue.

Fox isn't putting much (anything?) out, and Disney has pulled a few titles.


there was Night at the Museum and Eragon that are relatively new

So BD+ standardization is limiting the blu-ray releases across the board or just for a few studios?

I noticed Nip Tuck Season 4 box set is coming out on HDDVD isn't this a FOX based production from FX.

So BD+ standardization is limiting the blu-ray releases across the board or just for a few studios?

there is no standardization. The VM was done some time ago and all machines already support it. My understanding is that a studio decides they don't like X (i.e. for example that the AACS keys can be seen and copied ) BD+ code is written that targets the problematic players, it is tested and the approval of the manufacturer is given. Then it can be added to the disks by the studios.

Unlike the AACS revocation list that is mandatory, BD+ is up to each studio to use the availavbble code or not in their titles.

I ment BD-Java not BD+, sorry.


Nip Tuck is being released on Blu-Ray and HD-DVD by Warner.

Any updates for this list? It's been a month...

Any way you'd be willing to add another data point for importable HD-DVD and Blu-Ray titles that are not available in the U.S.? Like Terminator 2, Mr. & Mrs. Smith, Equilibrium, Brotherhood of the Wolf, Basic Instinct, Enemy at the Gates, Harry Potter, King Kong 1976, Killing me Softly, 3 Days of the Condor, Underworld: Evolution, Rambo 1/2/3, The Gift, The Graduate, Total Recall, The Prestige, The Machinist, The Pianist, XXX, and so on. I wish that Grubert would add two additional colors and factor them in for this. It's great that HD-DVD remains region unlocked =)

I don't know that the availbility/cost of shipping in the reverse direction to Europe and Asia from Amazon USA etc. could be cheaper? Anyhow the total different titles is different if you count titles that can be purchased overseas and imported. It adds like another 5-10% in title count and subtracts some from Blu-Ray exclusives.

I realize this is a lot of work maybe, but maybe I'm wrong and someone already has this tallied up somewhere on AVS. If so let me know. I see a lot of them on xploitedcinema.com's HD-DVD order page and on Amazon sites overseas.

There... I updated it!

Sorry of the delay (though the longer wait does make the fluctuations more interesting :) )

It is amazing that the two camps have converged at this time, there was no indicator by the scheduled release anouncements, I get that means that HD-DVD is more into just making the media and springing it on the customers than Blu-Ray.

There... I updated it!

Sorry of the delay (though the longer wait does make the fluctuations more interesting :) )

What do you think about another data bar for importable titles on both formats? All HD DVD's are region free, I think many Blu-Ray's are also region free.

Do you have a source to get the info from?

What do you think about another data bar for importable titles on both formats? All HD DVD's are region free, I think many Blu-Ray's are also region free.


It is not that all HD-DVD's are region free by spec, it is just that the DVD Forum has yet to decide how to set up their Regional Playback Control (they have been sitting on their thumbs on this decision for a while now). So they may require it down the line.

ex.. http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/10/06/hd_dvd_to_get_region_coding/

If you incorporate import data, please seperate it from the other data. I think imports make things messy... just because you can import it doesnt mean you will, and then it becomes title specific on the BD side if/when they start region protecting discs.

Also do we have any data since July 31st?

I have the data, just not compiled it yet.

Traditionally I do it on Wed's to allow Grupert to encorperate any last minute changes for the Tuesday releases.

Sorry for the delays, it is now updated.


:D

Cause Universal is trying to make HD DVD win,so they are pumping out the discs as fast and as much as possible.

I don't think they are pumping them out that fast at all. Uni's problem is quality control and EE. One disk will be great and another will be horrible. It's like a box of chocolates.

Come on Paramount! Give me Gump!