Agree. And studios would run away screaming if MS decided to abandon HD-DVD.Do you mean they would not push toward high definition DVD? DVD is being ravaged by blatant duplication. Studios desperately want a hi-def format. HD DVD is the cheaper of the two to replicate.

Hell, even toshiba probably would. W/o the PS3, the other CE companies in BD would put out a 600 USD player, subsidized but functional, like the A-1.Studios not getting substantial royalties from BD have no reason to subsidize BD players.

W/o MS slaving away to prop up HD-DVD, this forum would be fairly empty of suspense wrt the format war.I finally bought an XBox 360 yesterday to go with the HD-DVD player. All I could say is WOW during KK. MI:3 up tonight.

And replication is cheap and does not require a substantial investment in replication facilities. What is there to not like in this format?

The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building HD-DVD players. Once they find that HD-DVD has already been discounted to $199 at retail, they head for the hills... Once again, b2b, this time with rythem; $399 +$199 = $598...for the full experience....And kjack's $150 BD player in a TV by 2007? By who? Pioneer?

BTW: anyone see in the HD DVD players section where HP is offering an HD DVD upgrade to PCs for $99?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=756087

I went to the site, lo and behold - $99 upcharge for an HD DVD drive. :)

Meanwhile, BD struggles to include CD support on BD drives.... :(

So how many 360 HD DVD add-on were actually sold? 10K?
Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately.

Other media reports indicate that Sony only had 150,000 PS3s shipped for launch.

Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately.

Other media reports indicate that Sony only had 150,000 PS3s shipped for launch.

Links ???

This is what Amir had to say..

Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Amir: I can understand both of them. But can you at least give us a ball park figure on how many MS thinks they will ship in 2006 or so far? are we talking 1M? or 10k? or 100k> or 200k like some are saying?

I am confused why it matters to you Anthony. I thought you were in blu-ray camp. Did you get a recent job as a market analyst?

But no, Xbox related data like this is highly confidential. Come and tell me something I don't know about PS3 shipment volumes and I might think about reciprocating...


b2b

SCEA Comments on PS3 Resolution on Older HDTVs (http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/news/?id=14518)

Sony is working on a fix for sets that lack 720p [Updated!]


Sony has contacted us to let us know that they may have spoken a bit prematurely. SCEA's Dave Karraker, Sr. Director, Corporate Communications, informed GameDaily BIZ that they currently cannot confirm that this 1080i issue will be resolved via a firmware patch. The official line is now that they are "looking into the issue and haven't stated any actions that will be taken regarding it."

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

In the January edition of Home Cinema Choice (UK) - the Bluray Special Issue, there are some interesting cat-talk comments from the Bluray camp (I've added CAPS as emphasis, here and there):

...(PANASONIC) senior executives have admitted that they are surprised that the (Bluray) hi def disc system is still embroiled in a format war with rival HD DVD. They also say that the decision to author the first Bluray titles in Mpeg2 format was a mistake.

...Toshihiro Sakamoto, president of Panasonic's AVC networks company, admits that he thought HD DVD would run out of steam early: "I was hoping that by the end of this year, there would not be a format war"...

How cloistered and unrealistic were some of these people??

...Sakamoto says he is unconcerned that large swathes of Hollywood are now supporting both HD formats. "If I was a software manufacturer, I would buy insurance," he says. "That's natural."

Large swathes? Maybe he knows something?

...Asked if he has been surprised by the generally positive reaction to HD DVD since its American launch, he candidly admits: "Not really. After all Panasonic hasn't released a product yet, and no one has seen the movie titles which we have encoded in H.264 (aka Mpeg4 AVC). We will NOT be encoding in Mpeg2. The picture quality on the early Mpeg2 titles is NOT good. In comparison, OUR H.264 encoding is really excellent."

..."Sony Pictures, I think, tried to launch before the right authoring tools were available. It had to take a technologically conservative approach. THAT'S why it selected Mpeg2."

"I'm sure everyone will move to H.264. It is much better"

Prety damning assessment of Mpeg2, HUH? How does that sit with various Sony shills that post on the internet that Mpeg2 is "da bomb"?

Now would you think that Sony might NOW start conceeding that Mpeg2 is not the right codec for the next-generation?

Well, let's flip forward a few pages in the same issue for an interview with Sony - given by none other than the inimitable Don Eklund. Yes - some of you will recognize the king of credibility (NOT) from his various other FUD-mongering and less than accurate interviews elsewhere...

The interview starts nicely enough with not MUCH mention of the PQ problems of the Bluray format :)

Matt Brown (Exec VP, Europe) and Don Eklund (Exec VP, advanced Technologies) [heh! Mpeg2 falls under that?!] are KEEN to explain their company's take on the HD format war, and allay consumer fears over region coding, Mpeg2, and why Jessica Alba looks a bit GRAINY in that skimpy bikini...

"It was entirely our choice which titles we launched with, and our duty was to build the format by releasing the best picture and the best sound", explains Brown. "I believe we have done that with our initial releases."

HAH! Ya right...

Don Eklund is seen by many in the industry as the face of Bluray. In his role at Sony Pictures, Eklund has overseen the development of the Mpeg2 authoring system that has been utilised by Sony Pictures for all of it's Bluray releases to date.

Naturally, given the controversy that has surrounded the company's decision to stick with Mpeg2 encoding while other companies are already authoring bluray titles in H.264 - not to mention recent comments by Panasonic's Kazuhiro Tsuga (see page 7) - we are quick to ask him for a response.

Wait for it.... :p

Without addressing Tsuga's comments in detail, Eklund says that "Panasonic has also developed what APPEARS to be a VERY EXPENSIVE AVC encoder which they're quite PROUD of". This indicates a belief that this was little more than a rival attempting to downplay the competition, as both Panasonic and Sony Pictures have proprietary Bluray authoring software that they are licensing out to various film studios.

MEEEOOOWWW!! How about some milk with that Sony?

As for sticking with Mpeg2 encoding, it is CLEARLY a question that Eklund has been asked many times before, and he is QUICK to DEFEND the codec.

"...once you get above 20 mbps and you goal is to make the perfect representation, ALL the codecs perform, BASICALLY, equally well. The significant difference between Mpeg2, which we're using on an encoder, (which coincidentally Sony developed for Bluray), versus H.264 and VC-1 is that the latter are software-based and they require many processors to encode. And even with those many processors they take many times realtime to encode yet again. So if you discuss how LONG it takes to do a picture encoding, for instance, Warner Brothers will tell more than two weeks. We can make an outstanding picture, probably Black Hawk down is a good example, in about two days. So IF I can make a picture at a SUFFICIENTLY high bitrate, that has no DISCERNABLE difference from those by the other codecs, but which takes only ten percent as long to encode, why would I use a different codec?"

AHAH!! There it is again - That pretty much translates to "we like MPEG2 because it is QUICKER and CHEAPER to use than the other codecs!". Busted again!

The magazine writer continues...

Of course, WE'VE seen the differences between some of the more QUESTIONABLE Mpeg2 authored discs on the market from Sony Pictures (such as Into The Blue), and the stunning quality of 20th Century Fox's H.264 authored titles. BUT Eklund remains ADAMANT that this is NOT down to the codec. Instead, he places the blame in a very SURPRISING place, "Ultimately, people tend to use this to point at the codec and criticise it, but MOST OFTEN it is the FAULT of the source material, NOT the Mpeg2 encoding."

B**lSh*t. Eklund wraps up his inspiring and factually ever-so-accurate interview with:

"But ultimately, Bluray is all about high quality picture, high quality sound and that's what we're delivering now."

Funny how he seems to have NO CREDIBILITY even with the magazines now, not just A/V fans on this site...

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

RDJam - next time - no lime green. Those of us with alternate screen colors can't read it...

But yes, big news. :D

RDJam - next time - no lime green. Those of us with alternate screen colors can't read it...

But yes, big news. :D
Whoops :) I fix...

Jesus Christ, CHANGE THE GREEN FONTS !!!!!

Is the Blue text better? :o

Is the Blue better? :o

please go back and edit your posts:


it is called Blu-ray

you know better

Other news - The PS3 is being promoted heavily as the Bluray player that will reverse the significant lead that HD DVD currently enjoys.

There's now news that the player has been cracked, and that game discs (ie rentals or borrowed games) can be saved to the hard drive.

Not yet know if this applies to movies as well...

"One week after launch, PS3 can rip games to any PC hard drive you feel like slapping in..."

http://forum.teamxbox.com/showthread.php?t=488266


I'm only linking to a discussion of it, as it would be against forum rules to go further.

But the news itself might give cause for developers to be concerned.

please go back and edit your posts:


it is called Blu-ray

you know better
Hi Mark - it certainly isn't intended as a slur to write Bluray, as it's used commonly, even if it is not strictly the exact term. It is not derogatory in any way.

Since I was transcribing everything by hand, it's easier. Surely no-one is reporting compaints over something this petty?

EDIT = OOps, never mind, I found the mistake I think you meant - fixed. Sorry about that..

Other news - The PS3 is being promoted heavily as the Bluray player that will reverse the significant lead that HD DVD currently enjoys.

There's now news that the player has been cracked, and that game discs (ie rentals or borrowed games) can be saved to the hard drive.

Not yet know if this applies to movies as well...

"One week after launch, PS3 can rip games to any PC hard drive you feel like slapping in..."

http://forum.teamxbox.com/showthread.php?t=488266


I'm only linking to a discussion of it, as it would be against forum rules to go further.

But the news itself might give cause for developers to be concerned.

That'll really boost sales of the 60G model. ;)

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

...Toshihiro Sakamoto, president of Panasonic's AVC networks company, admits that he thought HD DVD would run out of steam early: "I was hoping that by the end of this year, there would not be a format war".[/B]

How cloistered and unrealistic were some of these people??

...Sakamoto says he is unconcerned that large swathes of Hollywood are now supporting both HD formats. "If I was a software manufacturer, I would buy insurance," he says. "That's natural."
Large swathes? Maybe he knows something?This quote reminds me of a quote in April...Queue the dream music...

Matsushita Says NO to HD DVD-BD Compromise (http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/HDDVDBlurayoneformats.php)

In comments to Reuters, Kazuhiro Tsuga, an executive at Japan's Matsushita, has stated next-generation Blu-ray and HD DVD formats will never merge. "We are not talking and will not talk," he said. "The market will decide the winner." No one at the time was even considering, never mind expecting a truce. Why would they say that stuff, then and now?

Nintendo and Sony Get Caught in Microsoft's Xbox 360 Mousetrap (http://games-news.sympatico.msn.ca/Video_Games/BreakingNews/ContentPosting.htm?newsitemid=6874bba7-1c78-4f07-bff5-25738e90510a&feedname=TODD_BREAKINGNEWS&show=true&number=5&showbyline=true&abc=abc)
With 10 million XBox 360 consoles on the market by Jan 07, I see a huge market for HD DVD add-ons. HD DVD add-on works extremely well...If MS ever reduces the price of the 360, war is over. Sony has to reduce price. If they do, without reducing cost however, finances get a whole lot worse....

Dismal number?


Compared to promises made.

Some news about video downloads from XBox live.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/293648_msftxbox25.html

Early users of Microsoft Corp.'s new Xbox Live online TV and movie service have been reporting widespread technical problems, including unusually long download times, undelivered content and repeat charges.

Microsoft acknowledged the difficulties Friday, promised refunds to people experiencing trouble and said it was on track to resolving the situation.

Here is the interesting part ...

The demand was "significantly beyond what anybody ever expected," said Aaron Greenberg, the Xbox Live group's marketing manager.

Some news about video downloads from XBox live.
In my 24 hours experience with this product, I can corroborate this completely...Better to stay local, with HD-DVD.

Crickets from the BR side of the aisle on the HCC reports re: sony and Panasonic?

Well, at least we won't keep hearing how VC1 and AVC1 "aren't better than Mpeg2"...

Meanwhile, BD struggles to include CD support on BD drives.... One drive model (first generation) doesn't include CD support. Every other does, including four or five burners. Where are all the HD-DVD burners? How many HD-DVD ROM drives are even available? Toshiba, NEC, LiteOn, umm, huh.

Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately. Would you mind citing/ linking one of those reports, please?
Other media reports indicate that Sony only had 150,000 PS3s shipped for launch.They announced 90K in Japan and the lowest estimates for US launch were 125K.

Wii DVD player planned (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35919)

Of coiurse it's the Inquirer, nothing more than rumor and inuendo....

Next year, according to rumours.

NINTENDO HAS plans to release a new version of the Wii next year that will ship with a HD DVD player, according to industry rumours.

...
However, the spokesNintendo admitted it shouldn't be impossible in theory. In fact, said the spokesman, Microsoft was able to patch the Xbox 360 to support 1080p and Nintendo has already released a patch to allow Wii gamers to transfer game saves to SD cards.
There are rumors that Wii can support 720p/1080i.

The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building BD players. Once they find that BD has already been discounted to $499 at retail, they head for the hills... ;)

b2b
Fixed. ;)

Where are all the HD-DVD burners? How many HD-DVD ROM drives are even available? Toshiba, NEC, LiteOn, umm, huh.
Who cares about burning anything with next gen drives when Hollywood won't let you burn anything? Have you seen ANY statistics that I have been posting about DVD recorders in north america/europe? DVD recording of video in NA/Europe is dead. Worse than dead. And that is before HD comes along and puts a stop to BD recording to disc completely. Unless, of course, you can divulge plans that would say otherwise.

How many BD burners have been sold? Do they have DL capability? How much does DL BD-RE cost? How much does DL BD ROM cost?

I also find it funny about the HD-DVD Addon talk. TalkStr8t, if you go through 90% of the threads about the Addon, they also own the A1! So they're essentially trying out whatever they can as an alternative to the horrific hardware that is the A1. Then they claim that every addon = new customer for discs, when clearly, its mostly the same small minute group of people buying the players in addition to the A1. And go to Frys in so cal, any of them. The HD-DVD Addons have been collecting dust there and the guy working at the department there said theres 0 interest in them, everyone asks about the Wii, and of course, the PS3.

Viva La Blu-Ray!

Would you please stop with the misinformation and the "collecting dust" talk? If you look add the add-on buyers poll here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

It's pretty clear that the vast majority of the buyers do not also have an A1.

Would you mind citing/ linking one of those reports, please?
They announced 90K in Japan and the lowest estimates for US launch were 125K.
Yes, I was talking about the US only. You've confirmed my number, and even dropped it by 25,000 :)

As for the Xbox add-on, are you disagreeing with the 200,000 or the 120,000 - the stories were linked in another thread that I'm pretty sure you participated in.

Now...

Blu-ray player sales have now permanently surpassed HD-DVD player sales!

Now how about providing evidence of your rather exhuberant signature?

And if fewer people use the PS3 for Bluray movies, it would be indicated by lower bluray movie disc sales, correct?

And movie sales are what matters to the studios, yes?

Some news about video downloads from XBox live.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/293648_msftxbox25.html



Here is the interesting part ...


That sort of stuff is fixable to a large degree. What I want to know is what the picture quality is like with the 720p movies.

Wii DVD player planned (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35919)

Of coiurse it's the Inquirer, nothing more than rumor and inuendo....

There are rumors that Wii can support 720p/1080i.


In terms of studio perception, that could be huge. I say that with a double dose of skepticism though. It's most probably BS.

I did a search on the forum. Found no such well-documentation. So you will have to link for me. I find it hard to believe one CE had that much power over everyone else that they held their nose and let Toshiba dictate the forum's direction.Here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8237466&&#post8237466), here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8237466&&#post8237466) , many posts in the several pages following here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8418043&&#post8418043) , and external confirmation here (http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20020222S0020) and here (http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,105534-page,1/article.html). There are many more references, search for "DVD Forum", "Steering Committee", and "AOD" for pointers.
First off, they did NOT state Xbox 360 sales in the middle of the month after the product was on sale for merely a couple of weeks. Trust me, I covered the launch. We didn't get sales numbers of the console for a good while. So to try and marginalize the add-on because Microsoft won't immediately give you sales numbers is a little below the proverbial belt.Except in the midst of buying season if they're looking to build momentum they will surely take the opportunity to do so. That's very different from the standard reporting of sales numbers to meet fiduciary obligations.

Accepted figures of 380K Xbox 360's sold last year from launch until the end of the year versus very, very conservative figures of 200K PS3's sold at launch (88K in Japan and 120K in the US) plus 100K/wk additional deliveries. Even if Sony only hits half that number they'll still easily pass 2006 Xbox 360 sales.
Because if Microsoft had sold anywhere near enough HD-DVD add-ons to compare with even a fraction of PS3 sales (or standalone HD-DVD players) they'd surely be publicizing the number to anyone who would listen. They've often stated Xbox 360 sales; why wouldn't they state add-on sales?

forgive my "potential ignorance" but did MS announce a 2mil launch figure just months before XBox 360's actual launch? :D

Who cares about burning anything with next gen drives when Hollywood won't let you burn anything? Have you seen ANY statistics that I have been posting about DVD recorders in north america/europe? DVD recording of video in NA/Europe is dead. Worse than dead. And that is before HD comes along and puts a stop to BD recording to disc completely.There's far more to recording than recording Hollywood content. There's recording over the air content, there's recording camcorder-shot content, there's complilation of hours and hours of SD video, there's archival of non-video data. Are you claiming there's no value in recordable DVD, or that it has sufficient capacity? Did you make the same argument when recordable DVD first came out with regards to recordable CD?
How many BD burners have been sold? Do they have DL capability? How much does DL BD-RE cost? How much does DL BD ROM cost?Most of them do have DL capability. Of course costs are high, sales are currently miniscule, which is exactly how recordable CD and DVD started as well. Few who are knowledgeable deny, however, that BD is far more suited to recordability than HD-DVD.

In terms of studio perception, that could be huge. I say that with a double dose of skepticism though. It's most probably BS.If Ninendo comes out with add-on HD-DVD it's game over, Sony...Speculation, of course.

But yes, big news. :D

What is the BIG news, exactly? That Panasonic talks up their own H.264 or that Sony keeps praising MPEG2? (That Eklund guy really needs to be replaced, btw.) Sorry, but I fail to see a) the news and b) the BIG news...

In my 24 hours experience with this product, I can corroborate this completely...Better to stay local, with HD-DVD.
They'll probably work it out, increase # of servers, bandwidth etc... But I agree, I prefer the shiny disc (Blu-ray, in my case) in my hand (or rather in my player :)). (Or I will, once I get the PS3...)

But the tides may be turning. Could we be seeing the beginning of the end for shiny discs?

If Ninendo comes out with add-on HD-DVD it's game over, Sony...Speculation, of course.

Maybe I should just call you... ;)

HD DVD, in glorious 480P? I think not...

There's far more to recording than recording Hollywood content. There's recording over the air content, there's recording camcorder-shot content, there's complilation of hours and hours of SD video, there's archival of non-video data. Are you claiming there's no value in recordable DVD, or that it has sufficient capacity? Did you make the same argument when recordable DVD first came out with regards to recordable CD?Yes I am claiming that, because North America does not know what they can or cannot record. You want me to quote stats? You won't be happy if I do.

Most of them do have DL capability.Good to know that most do. Is there a web site I can go to which tells me which do and which do not?

Of course costs are high, sales are currently miniscule, which is exactly how recordable CD and DVD started as well. Few who are knowledgeable deny, however, that BD is far more suited to recordability than HD-DVD.Good luck to you on the recordability front Talk; even if it suceeds, Sun fails (w/BD-J).

MEEEOOOWWW!! How about some milk with that Sony? ...

LOL ... now here comes Toshiba .. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr :D


"But ultimately, Bluray is all about high quality picture, high quality sound and that's what we're delivering now."[/B]

Funny how he seems to have NO CREDIBILITY even with the magazines now, not just A/V fans on this site...

I do not agree with you on that. He was just emphasizing that those initial launch PQ and sound were/are the best that Sony Pictures can do ! :D

Maybe I should just call you... ;)

HD DVD, in glorious 480P? I think not...Yes absolutely you should call me, if rumors that Wii can support 720p/1080i are correct... ;) I would be amazed...

There's far more to recording than recording Hollywood content. There's recording over the air content, there's recording camcorder-shot content, there's complilation of hours and hours of SD video, there's archival of non-video data. Are you claiming there's no value in recordable DVD, or that it has sufficient capacity? Did you make the same argument when recordable DVD first came out with regards to recordable CD?

Probably equally common if less talked about is just ignoring Hollywood's rules and the legal fine print and recording pirated or other content from whatever sources, as data with no copy protection. It is just the economical means to record DATA that I'm interested in. Once something is recorded as unencumbered data it's an easy matter to find ways to play it, archive it, move it, etc.

- Tom

They'll probably work it out, increase # of servers, bandwidth etc... But I agree, I prefer the shiny disc (Blu-ray, in my case) in my hand (or rather in my player :)). (Or I will, once I get the PS3...)

But the tides may be turning. Could we be seeing the beginning of the end for shiny discs?I'm thinking 5 years...

Of course costs are high, sales are currently miniscule, which is exactly how recordable CD and DVD started as well. Few who are knowledgeable deny, however, that BD is far more suited to recordability than HD-DVD.

Good luck to you on the recordability front Talk; even if it suceeds, Sun fails (w/BD-J).

I send my best wishes on that front too. Actually i think both HD DVD/BD wont do well as recordable media :D Regular consumers (non industrial or movie pirates) do not need 15GB or 25GB recordable media. After many many years, DVD9R is still MUCH MORE pricier than DVD5R. Basically, i think 700MB CDR is more than enough for regular usage.

Yes, I was talking about the US only. You've confirmed my number, and even dropped it by 25,000I am using the most pessimistic analysts' estimates just so you won't claim I am cherry-picking a number.
As for the Xbox add-on, are you disagreeing with the 200,000 or the 120,000 - the stories were linked in another thread that I'm pretty sure you participated in.I disagree with both numbers. I don't think the manufactured nor shipped anywhere near those numbers. And I don't recall a single source referencing an official (or even analyst's estimate) number. If it's in a thread I'm sure you or someone else can point it out.
Now how about providing evidence of your rather exhuberant signature?What do you dispute? Even taking the lowest possible estimates there were more than 200K PS3's sold as of last Friday, ignoring standalone players and upcoming shipments. The only possible way my signature is wrong is if Sony hasn't shipped a single additional player beyond the launch volume and if MS has sold 125K+ add-ons. And since there are reports that Best Buy had new units for sale yesterday, the theory that Sony has shipped no additional units is blown.
And if fewer people use the PS3 for Bluray movies, it would be indicated by lower bluray movie disc sales, correct? And movie sales are what matters to the studios, yes?Agreed. So let's look at Blu-ray movie sales and rentals starting in January, once most of the units being sold now are actually in use. Anything before that doesn't present the full picture since so many current sales are for resale or are going under the Christmas Tree / Hanukkah bush / Kwanzaa shrub, etc.

Here is the interesting part The demand was "significantly beyond what anybody ever expected," said Aaron Greenberg, the Xbox Live group's marketing manager.What do you expect him to say? "Very few people seem to care about Xbox video downloads, and even with the slack demand our infrastructure was completely overwhelmed."

Wii DVD player planned (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35919)Of coiurse it's the Inquirer, nothing more than rumor and inuendo....This is yet another example of an uninformed "journalist" misreading a source article. First of all, the source article (http://www.gameinformer.com/News/Story/200611/N06.1120.1725.47900.htm) for the Inquirer's article doesn't mention a thing about HD-DVD, just DVD and, in a separate context, high definition. Further, it's already been leaked (see here (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/5514/6538/nintendo-wii-sonic-dvd-playback.phtml) for one source) that Sonic Solutions will provide DVD playback software for the Wii. Finally, the Wii simply doesn't have the hardware or the memory to do HD. An HD DVD add-on would essentially be a full HD-DVD player and could use very little of the Wii's existing hardware.

Does no one actually think before speculating on some of these things?

Yes I am claiming that, because North America does not know what they can or cannot record. You want me to quote stats? You won't be happy if I do.I know that most of the camcorders on the shelf seem to be based on DVD now, not MiniDV, yet my father-in-law just returned one because the 20 minutes you can store on a disc at max quality is woefully insufficient. Are you saying people aren't buying camcorders, and if they do they won't want 5x the capacity on a disc? DVD recorder sales are meaningless, as few people want to create permanent archives of broadcast TV, and if they want to a Tivo with a network connection to a PC can do it.
Most of them do have DL capability.Good to know that most do. Is there a web site I can go to which tells me which do and which do not?I don't have one handy. I'm sure Google can turn up the info without difficulty.
Good luck to you on the recordability front Talk; even if it suceeds, Sun fails (w/BD-J).How is recordability related to BD-J?

This is yet another example of an uninformed "journalist" misreading a source article. First of all, the source article (http://www.gameinformer.com/News/Story/200611/N06.1120.1725.47900.htm) for the Inquirer's article doesn't mention a thing about HD-DVD, just DVD and, in a separate context, high definition. Further, it's already been leaked (see here (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/5514/6538/nintendo-wii-sonic-dvd-playback.phtml) for one source) that Sonic Solutions will provide DVD playback software for the Wii. Finally, the Wii simply doesn't have the hardware or the memory to do HD. An HD DVD add-on would essentially be a full HD-DVD player and could use very little of the Wii's existing hardware.

Does no one actually think before speculating on some of these things?Geez Talk - I said it was a rumor. :D

...Sakamoto says he is unconcerned that large swathes of Hollywood are now supporting both HD formats. "If I was a software manufacturer, I would buy insurance," he says. "That's natural."Large swathes? Maybe he knows something?Warner on their own qualfies as a pretty good-sized swatch.
Of course, WE'VE seen the differences between some of the more QUESTIONABLE Mpeg2 authored discs on the market from Sony Pictures (such as Into The Blue), and the stunning quality of 20th Century Fox's H.264 authored titles. BUT Eklund remains ADAMANT that this is NOT down to the codec. Instead, he places the blame in a very SURPRISING place, "Ultimately, people tend to use this to point at the codec and criticise it, but MOST OFTEN it is the FAULT of the source material, NOT the Mpeg2 encoding."B**lSh*t.While there have clearly been sub-par releases in MPEG2, there have also been exceptional releases on a par with the best VC-1 and AVC releases. Therefore one can't claim MPEG2 is incapable of stunning picture quality. There is clearly more to the equation than just the codec.

^, ^^, ^^^, Oh dear ... if only BD spend this much time to listen to what critics said and are saying or what consumer wants, BD wouldnt be in this much of deep sh1t right now !!

I don't hate Microsoft or Bill Gates Richard, though that was a pretty slick try. :) Usually since the masses hate Gates for what he's accomplished and he's the symbol of evil for most, I try to understand why people make the comparisons.I was just making a comparison that a lot of people are asking for something with the HD format war that they would find absurd for operating systems. Also the way your post was phrased I thought you were implying that you hated Microsoft and Bill Gates. Wasn't trying to pull a fast one or anything.


As for the comparison, my point was that Windows has been established, though many have tried and failed. Linux has zero chance of taking any real share of the OS home market. HD DVD and Blu-ray are new technologies hitting at around the same time, and now a format is trying to be decided from them both. That is why the comparison is not the same.Well in my opinion Linux and HD DVD have about the same chance of winning in their respective markets though obviously a lot of people would disagree with that. Personally I just find it absurd that some people truly believe that the studios should be forced to support every video format that is released.


On the contrary - the PS3 is the only reason there is a format war at this point. If not for the PS3 Blu-ray would never have seen the light of day. Studios would have ran away screaming in terror at the sight of BD without PS3 to prop it up.I think your exaggerating a bit, but does that mean you believe that the PS3 is the main factor in how well Blu-ray will do in this format war?


Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately.rdjam, care to back this claim up with some links to those media reports?


Crickets from the BR side of the aisle on the HCC reports re: sony and Panasonic?

Well, at least we won't keep hearing how VC1 and AVC1 "aren't better than Mpeg2"...No offense rdjam but your posts sometimes get so vile that it doesn't even seem worth it to reply to them. Also how many Blu-ray supporters are there that actually believe that the advanced video codecs are not more efficient at encoding than MPEG-2? Apparently you feel free to call them "Sony shills" but you don't actually mention any of their names.

While there have clearly been sub-par releases in MPEG2, there have also been exceptional releases on a par with the best VC-1 and AVC releases. Therefore one can't claim MPEG2 is incapable of stunning picture quality. There is clearly more to the equation than just the codec.

Sounds reasonable. In a demonstration on a reference level setup (calibrated Q004 front projector through a Pioneer Elite player with an HD-A1 and Panasonic BD player) there were zero quantifiable differences in quality between various VC1 and Mpeg 2 releases. Both deliver excellent quality at a price differential that's insignificant on any measurable scale that includes that display device. In fact, I'd say the difference was multiplied several times over by the decorations on the walls of this home theater setup... :D

I just can't understand how anyone could be an absolute partisan in this format war, without something else at stake. Both formats deliver outstanding PQ and AQ. The rest appears to me to be mostly politics and industry plants...

Well in my opinion Linux and HD DVD have about the same chance of winning in their respective markets though obviously a lot of people would disagree with that. Personally I just find it absurd that some people truly believe that the studios should be forced to support every video format that is released.

That's ok. But I don't agree. Warner Bros. has precisely the right attitude about this situation. Put movies on both and let the consumer decide. What I think is funny is that unlike Universal, Fox, and Disney, Warner Bros. and Paramount get to make money on both sides of the fence. Warner certainly has already begun to make money from me on the HD DVD side. I double-dipped Batman Begins (already own on DVD but heard the HD transfer was great), picked up Dukes of Hazzard, and have all three of their Superman releases on pre-order.

I can pretty much guarantee that I won't be picking up any Fox or Disney or Lionsgate Blu-ray movies, so that's money they lose on me. They would certainly make the same kind of money off me if I had access to HD DVD versions of their movies.

I actually will have more Warner Bros. titles than I will Universal titles for now.

I think your exaggerating a bit, but does that mean you believe that the PS3 is the main factor in how well Blu-ray will do in this format war?The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3. How embarassing is that? Nevermind...BD supporters do not care. What is vague about this?

I can pretty much guarantee that I won't be picking up any Fox or Disney or Lionsgate Blu-ray movies, so that's money they lose on me.True, and eventually I am hoping that one of the HD formats gets enough consumer support to get all six of the major studios. Of course I would prefer it to be Blu-ray.


The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3.Okay, that certainly does clarify your belief on how important the PS3 is to Blu-ray.

True, and eventually I am hoping that one of the HD formats gets enough consumer support to get all six of the major studios. Of course I would prefer it to be Blu-ray.

And I HD DVD. Because unless there's a $200 Blu-ray add-on coming for the Xbox 360, if HD DVD goes away it will be a good while before I drop $500+ on a standalone player. Truth be told I'd still have neither format if not for the price of the add-on.

Right now, like you Richard, I am voting in this format war with my wallet. And I am not allowing a company to dictate my choices for me. When Fox begins to support the format I chose, then I will purchase their product. Not before.

And I want to clarify. I don't care if Blu-ray exists as a format or not. That's what I find to be one of the big differences in the two sets of supporters. BD people don't simply want to have Blu-ray, they want the destruction of HD DVD. I haven't seen the same fervor on the HD DVD side that wants Blu-ray dead. I guess we just want to watch our movies in the format we picked.

Personally, Blu-ray staying around as the other HD movie format doesn't matter to me.

The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3. How embarassing is that? Nevermind...BD supporters do not care. What is vague about this?

A lot of people keep trying to remind people that Sony is not Blu-ray. Ironically, at this point they are correct. PS3 is Blu-ray, everything else is a comma in history right now.

What do you dispute? Even taking the lowest possible estimates there were more than 200K PS3's sold as of last Friday, ignoring standalone players and upcoming shipments. Your own number said the worst case was 125,000 PS3s - now you say the lowest worst case is 200,000?

The only possible way my signature is wrong is if Sony hasn't shipped a single additional player beyond the launch volume and if MS has sold 125K+ add-ons. And since there are reports that Best Buy had new units for sale yesterday, the theory that Sony has shipped no additional units is blown.So let's look at N. America alone - 125,000 PS3s and 10,000 BR standalone players.

Compared with 70,000 standalone HD DVD players plus 120,000 (or maybe 200,000) Xbox HD DVD players.

So the number COULD be 135,000 Bluray players, versus 190,000 or even 270,000 HD DVD players. And that doesn't include the fact that most of those PS3 bluray players will have a MUCH lower movie attach rate than ANY of the HD DVD players counted - by anyone's estimation.

But my real POINT was PROVE IT... You make a statement of fact in your signature that you cannot back up. All of our estimations are just guesses - your statement is not based on fact.

Agreed. So let's look at Blu-ray movie sales and rentals starting in January, once most of the units being sold now are actually in use. Anything before that doesn't present the full picture since so many current sales are for resale or are going under the Christmas Tree / Hanukkah bush / Kwanzaa shrub, etc.False - while this is true of some of them, most of these machines are not going to sit unused for a month. People are too keen to tear them open and fire them up.

My opinion is that this is just another "delaying" tactic to prevent studios and pundits from reaching any judgements on the format in time for CES. Bluray people do NOT want any studio announcements at CES, so are NOW telling everyone "Hey, you can't use December sales as an indication - everyone is hiding those 150,000 PS3s away and are not using them. WAIT another 2 months!"

I can tell you if the "needle" doesn't move significantly for Bluray movie sales in December, with all those PS3s out there, then it means that the movie attach rates for the machine are simply abysmal.

Except if Sony gave up tomorrow, Matsushita, Philips, Pioneer, and the other members of the DVD Forum who joined the BDA would not. Neither would Fox be satisfied unless the DVD-Forum showed an inclination for something analogous to BD+. The BDA is far larger than just Sony.

My point is not to win.
I actually agree with you that it would be bad for HD DVD if no other CE manufacturer can profitably make HD DVD players that are competitively priced with Toshiba's players.
What I don't agree with is your assumption that this is in fact the case because Toshiba's subsidy is continuing with the A2.
My point simply is that the burden is on those who think that the A2 is in fact a "below cost" player to prove that, and until and unless there is evidence for the subsidy such claims should not be made.

Peace?


My point would be that there is no "point" to the discussion to begin with. The PS3 is a subsidized player, and that was played to significant advantage in wooing the studios to the Bluray format. Tit for tat? I think so.

Moreover, I don't see the "double-edged sword" here for HD-DVD because all the *other* manufacturer's have to do is wait until HD-DVD tech gets commoditized, and then release their own player.

I just can't understand how anyone could be an absolute partisan in this format war, without something else at stake. Both formats deliver outstanding PQ and AQ. The rest appears to me to be mostly politics and industry plants...No. There are important bandwidth and capacity differences.

No offense rdjam but your posts sometimes get so vile that it doesn't even seem worth it to reply to them. Also how many Blu-ray supporters are there that actually believe that the advanced video codecs are not more efficient at encoding than MPEG-2? Apparently you feel free to call them "Sony shills" but you don't actually mention any of their names.
Actually, it's practicing the restraint to not get personal.

Which leads me to ask, "why do you call my posts, in particular, 'so vile'?" Is it because some would rather I not mention some of the truths that hurt?

The BDA might be larger than just Sony, but it's not THAT much larger. Remember it is Sony that promised mass market penetration with the PS3. It was Sony that promised BDA exclusive supporters that movie sales will spur and the format will be the victor.

You can talk about the BDA, but Fox is also a member of the DVD-Forum. I'm quite sure, as I've said for a while, that if the PS3 does not spur the movie sales Sony promised, Fox will not simply sit by and twiddle it's thumbs waiting while Warner, Paramount, and Universal continue to post HD DVD sales. At some point even the mighty Fox will start to get impatient if things don't turn upwards quickly.

Because Toshiba and Microsoft propping up a format which has been rejected by the rest of the industry greatly impedes adoption of any next-generation format by consumers. Even if Sigma had just as many HD-DVD design wins as Blu-ray they would still be seeing far lower sales due to the format war.


That's a bogus argument IMO Talk. Your characterization is overly simplistic. If Microsoft and Toshiba are "propping up the format" then Bluray consortium members are doing no more for their own format.

Perhaps if MS and Intel didn't have the perception that the studios and CE's were trying to lock PC's out of the HD optical movie playback, then they might not be so determined to throw a wrench in Bluray's monkey.

The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3. How embarassing is that? Nevermind...BD supporters do not care. What is vague about this?
Mike, re your earlier post, I meant studios would run away from HD-DVD if MS abandoned
it, IMO, not from HD in general. As would Toshiba itself if MS took its support to BD (yeah, that will happen) or went neutral.

I have an add-on on the way, so its not that I think HD-DVD sucks. Its just that I don't see the value of paying more than 2-300 bucks for just Universal titles.

Its all about content and price, for me. If HD-DVD folds, the add-on becomes my future HTPC's drive. And hey, I gotta see KK in HD pronto :)

The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building HD-DVD players. Once they find that HD-DVD has already been discounted to $199 at retail, they head for the hills... ;) So bringing the price point down for 6-10 million consumers to get into HD DVD to below $199 is bad?

No wonder you support $999 -$1499 Blu-ray players!

The goal is to get HD into as many homes as possible so that studios can start releasing more titles in HD. More HD players, more market, more sales, more profit, more HD titles released, more inventory available to consumers, a virtuous circle becomes created. Consumers win, studios win, and even other CE companies win because component prices drop as quantity scales up as well as they can offer a reason to upgrade from a HD DVD console addon to a stand alone player.

Many CE companies could eventually offer a stand alone player to compete with the console add on. Thats certainly possible by next holiday season as component prices drop. Meanwhile, the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player is expanding the HD DVD market, and studios benefit in the meantime.

A $199 Xbox HD DVD movie player price, a $499 standalone player price and a $999 top end model price make a lot more sense than a $499/$599 game console price or a $999 $1299 or $1499 standalone player price.

Just because your chosen side has higher prices to gain entry into the HD disc world doesn't make high prices good.

The format that gets prices down to $19 discs and $199 players first has a significant advantage. MS has now achieved that price point for everyone that already has a Xbox 360. With the high number of Xbox owners that own HD TVs , a HD DVD player for $199 with a movie and a dedicated media remote is a reasonable alternative.

What would be the easier choice if you wanted to watch HD movies on? A $999 player? A $599 game console with no cables with a game controller for a remote? A $199 HD DVD drive with a dedicated media remote and an action movie?

If your one of the 6-10 million Xbox 360 owners the choice is clear.


And if you own a Xbox 360, just knowing you can buy a HD add on for $199 implies that HD DVD is much more affordable than Blu-ray. The $499 MSRP even seems easier because you know you have a cheaper $199 alternative.

And I HD DVD. Because unless there's a $200 Blu-ray add-on coming for the Xbox 360, if HD DVD goes away it will be a good while before I drop $500+ on a standalone player. Truth be told I'd still have neither format if not for the price of the add-on.I see, and for those that do have an Xbox 360 the HD DVD add-on was a very reasonable choice.


And I want to clarify. I don't care if Blu-ray exists as a format or not. That's what I find to be one of the big differences in the two sets of supporters. BD people don't simply want to have Blu-ray, they want the destruction of HD DVD. I haven't seen the same fervor on the HD DVD side that wants Blu-ray dead. I guess we just want to watch our movies in the format we picked.I wouldn't agree with that generalization though personally speaking I have always wanted a clear victor in this format war. I just don't think that it would be a benefit to consumers if we did end up with universal players.


Actually, it's practicing the restraint to not get personal.Personally speaking I can't remember anyone who claimed that MPEG-2 was as efficient as the advanced video codecs. Also in my opinion restraint would have meant not having any comment about "Sony shills".


Which leads me to ask, "why do you call my posts, in particular, 'so vile'?" Is it because some would rather I not mention some of the truths that hurt?Well for one you seem to be almost overjoyed at any negative news you believe you have found about Blu-ray. Add in statements like "Sony shills" and than the post wondering why no Blu-ray supporter will comment about your post and I have to ask why are you surprised by that? If you were nicer and more restrained with your posts I believe a lot more Blu-ray supporters would be willing to reply to your posts. Also I did answer your post soon after responding to another post where you called me "P.R.".

...I also find it funny about the HD-DVD Addon talk. TalkStr8t, if you go through 90% of the threads about the Addon, they also own the A1! So they're essentially trying out whatever they can as an alternative to the horrific hardware that is the A1. Then they claim that every addon = new customer for discs, when clearly, its mostly the same small minute group of people buying the players in addition to the A1. And go to Frys in so cal, any of them. The HD-DVD Addons have been collecting dust there and the guy working at the department there said theres 0 interest in them, everyone asks about the Wii, and of course, the PS3.

Viva La Blu-Ray! * Sigh *

Lets use some logic here. If 70,000 people bought the first generation HD DVD players and more people bought the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player, then there has to be some extra people buying the new HD DVD movie player option. All reports indicate that Microsoft will ship and sell far more than 70,000 add ons.

If its the same small group buying the add ons as bought the stand alone HD DVD players, then all those early HD DVD player purchases were bought by people that already had a Xbox 360, or people are buying a new $399 Xbox 360 and $199 HD DVD movie player add on for a total of $598 to replace their $499 HD DVD players. Thats very improbable.

You can't read a report of a satified HD DVD owner who bought a Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player and generalize thats the only type of person that bought one. AVS forum members may be indicative of early adopters but not the general population.

You can't take an anecdotal case of a satisfied HD DVD owner saying he buying a HD DVD add on and logically extend that to say all Xbox 360 add on HD DVD movie players are being bought by that group of people. Thats a hasty generalization fallacy. Same as your experience about seeing some inventory of a item that was released last week "gathering dust".

Some inventory is good, it allows retailers to actually sell the item and make a profit instead of just talk about it. (Talk to a retailer not selling a PS3 because of none being in stock inventory condition).

It probably takes more than a couple days for inventory to "gather dust" , well maybe thats not the case in Southern California during the time of the Santa Ana winds.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

This poll of AVS members clearly indicates that new people are buying the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option and that the numbers of previous HD DVD owners buying one is relatively small.

BTW 476 is a nice large number for a poll here on AVS. That's indicative of a large demand.

I wouldn't agree with that generalization though personally speaking I have always wanted a clear victor in this format war. I just don't think that it would be a benefit to consumers if we did end up with universal players.

With all due respect Richard you don't have to do much looking on this and other forum to see that exact sentiment from BD supporters. They want BD at the expense of HD DVD. It's very clear here as well. Even you want a "victor", as I do not care if they both hang around.

And I am not necessarily for universal players either. Or at least in the sense that I wouldn't be in the market for one.

But why should Fox and Universal limit themselves to one half of the market if they could make money on both sides?

No. There are important bandwidth and capacity differences.

When Sony Pictures is standardized on Mpeg2 (which requires more bandwidth and storage to match VC-1 for quality) can you tell us what the consumer benefit is of the increased technical abilities of BD?

The only benefit I see to BD is that a studio like Warner can do longer releases with great quality on BD-50 because they don't have an issue using VC-1. I don't see this as an important difference considering Toshiba is working on 45GB discs, and they've beaten BD to the punch on hybrid discs.

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

In the January edition of Home Cinema Choice (UK) -

Toshihiro Sakamoto, President of Panasonic's AVC networks company

...Asked if he has been surprised by the generally positive reaction to HD DVD since its American launch, he candidly admits: "Not really. After all Panasonic hasn't released a product yet, and no one has seen the movie titles which we have encoded in H.264 (aka Mpeg4 AVC). We will NOT be encoding in Mpeg2. The picture quality on the early Mpeg2 titles is NOT good. In comparison, OUR H.264 encoding is really excellent."

..."Sony Pictures, I think, tried to launch before the right authoring tools were available. It had to take a technologically conservative approach. THAT'S why it selected Mpeg2."

"I'm sure everyone will move to H.264. It is much better"

Well, let's flip forward a few pages in the same issue for an interview with Sony - given by none other than the inimitable Don Eklund. Yes - some of you will recognize the king of credibility (NOT) from his various other FUD-mongering and less than accurate interviews elsewhere...

Matt Brown (Exec VP, Europe, Sony) and Don Eklund (Exec VP, advanced Technologies, Sony)

Don Eklund is seen by many in the industry as the face of Bluray. In his role at Sony Pictures, Eklund has overseen the development of the Mpeg2 authoring system that has been utilised by Sony Pictures for all of it's Bluray releases to date.

Naturally, given the controversy that has surrounded the company's decision to stick with Mpeg2 encoding while other companies are already authoring bluray titles in H.264 - not to mention recent comments by Panasonic's Kazuhiro Tsuga (see page 7) - we are quick to ask him for a response.

Without addressing Tsuga's comments in detail, Eklund says that "Panasonic has also developed what APPEARS to be a VERY EXPENSIVE AVC encoder which they're quite PROUD of". This indicates a belief that this was little more than a rival attempting to downplay the competition, as both Panasonic and Sony Pictures have proprietary Bluray authoring software that they are licensing out to various film studios.

"...once you get above 20 mbps and you goal is to make the perfect representation, ALL the codecs perform, BASICALLY, equally well. The significant difference between Mpeg2, which we're using on an encoder, (which coincidentally Sony developed for Bluray), versus H.264 and VC-1 is that the latter are software-based and they require many processors to encode. And even with those many processors they take many times realtime to encode yet again. So if you discuss how LONG it takes to do a picture encoding, for instance, Warner Brothers will tell more than two weeks. We can make an outstanding picture, probably Black Hawk down is a good example, in about two days. So IF I can make a picture at a SUFFICIENTLY high bitrate, that has no DISCERNABLE difference from those by the other codecs, but which takes only ten percent as long to encode, why would I use a different codec?"

The magazine writer continues...

Of course, WE'VE seen the differences between some of the more QUESTIONABLE Mpeg2 authored discs on the market from Sony Pictures (such as Into The Blue), and the stunning quality of 20th Century Fox's H.264 authored titles. BUT Eklund remains ADAMANT that this is NOT down to the codec. Instead, he places the blame in a very SURPRISING place, "Ultimately, people tend to use this to point at the codec and criticise it, but MOST OFTEN it is the FAULT of the source material, NOT the Mpeg2 encoding."


The above quote is edited down.

Thank you Rdjam for bringing these interviews to our attention. This is very illuminating information and much appreciated.

I'd like to say that it's comforting to hear a BDA member like Panasonic be honest and say that Mpeg2 is no longer the best technology available and it's time to move to new codecs.

The Don Eklund interview is perhaps more informative in telling us what's wrong at Sony. It's pretty clear that Sony has a large investment in Mpeg2, including hardware based Mpeg2 encoding solutions (ASICs). It's also evident that Sony bet that Mpeg2 was good enough, and they did not want to loose their hardware investment yet. Was Don Eklund the decision maker on this? It doesn't matter, it's his job to carry the water on this bad decision, and man does he spin.

But hey, I'm sure plenty of people will tell me how BD looks nearly as good as HD-DVD now, and it really doesn't matter anyway. Perhaps someone should let Toshihiro Sakamoto know that he's wasting his time on this AVC nonsense.

Analyst: Sony Shipped Less than 175,000 PS3s in North America (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=5063)

According to research done by American Technology Research analyst Paul-Jon McNealy, Sony's launch weekend had between 125,000 to 175,000 units available for the North American market. Numbers keep going downward as time goes by...Pretty soon we'll be hitting zero. :confused:

With all due respect Richard you don't have to do much looking on this and other forum to see that exact sentiment from BD supporters. They want BD at the expense of HD DVD. It's very clear here as well. Even you want a "victor", as I do not care if they both hang around.That is true, but I would point out that there are many HD DVD supporters on this forum who want HD DVD to win this format war. Personally I think the number of people who want one format to win is about equal for both HD formats.


But why should Fox and Universal limit themselves to one half of the market if they could make money on both sides?Well actually for Fox they believe that HD DVD is less secure which is one of the reasons they support Blu-ray. As for why Universal doesn't support Blu-ray that is a good question.


I'd like to say that it's comforting to hear a BDA member like Panasonic be honest and say that Mpeg2 is no longer the best technology available and it's time to move to new codecs.Well just to point this out but Panasonic has been a supporters of MPEG-4 AVC for a good while and they even showed it off this spring at several CE shows.

That is true, but I would point out that there are many HD DVD supporters on this forum who want HD DVD to win this format war. Personally I think the number of people who want one format to win is about equal for both HD formats.

I haven't though seen the same attitude one way as I have the other.


Well actually for Fox they believe that HD DVD is less secure which is one of the reasons they support Blu-ray. As for why Universal doesn't support Blu-ray that is a good question.

I can bet I know Universal's reason. Cost. Outfitting standard DVD plants for HD DVD production from everything I read wasn't that expensive. Plus, Universal right now could not put out BD's with "U-Control" because while apparently the structure for those kinds of extras and PiP stuff is standardized with HD DVD, it is not with BD. Which seems to be Warner's reason for not putting certain titles out on BD yet.

As for security, not sure what the lack of it on HD DVD is at this point. Universal, Warner, Paramount, Genius Company, and Image don't seem to really have a concern with security and CP on HD DVD. So I am not sure, simply for lack of info, what makes BD more secure.

That is true, but I would point out that there are many HD DVD supporters on this forum who want HD DVD to win this format war. Personally I think the number of people who want one format to win is about equal for both HD formats.

I have to agree with Michael on this one. I believe the reason why many BD supporters are still hoping for the knock out punch is that if both formats survive (and they will) it means universal players, and that puts BD in a more difficult position than HD-DVD (replication cost of BD-50 vs. HD-DVD 30).

Fixed. ;)


Originally Posted by b2bonez -<<< this is not my quote !!!!
The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building BD players. Once they find that BD has already been discounted to $499 at retail, they head for the hills...

b2b

Please don't edit someones post and then quote it as they had written it. I you want to joke around fine, but you don't have to stoop that low to support HD-DVD... or do you ?? :eek:

b2b

Warner Bros. has precisely the right attitude about this situation. Put movies on both and let the consumer decide. What I think is funny is that unlike Universal, Fox, and Disney, Warner Bros. and Paramount get to make money on both sides of the fence. Warner certainly has already begun to make money from me on the HD DVD side.So if the choice is make $0.25 on each side of the fence, or $1 on one side of the fence, which would you choose? As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format.

Your own number said the worst case was 125,000 PS3s - now you say the lowest worst case is 200,000?I was very clear. 125K in N America. 90K in Japan. That's over 200K.
So let's look at N. America alone - 125,000 PS3s and 10,000 BR standalone players.

Compared with 70,000 standalone HD DVD players plus 120,000 (or maybe 200,000) Xbox HD DVD players.Once again you quote this phantom 120K/200K number which has not been referenced anywhere.
But my real POINT was PROVE IT... You make a statement of fact in your signature that you cannot back up. All of our estimations are just guesses - your statement is not based on fact.Are you disputing that Sony launched with even 200K units worldwide? If so you are in a tiny minority; I haven't seen a single estimate of less than 125K in N America and 90K in Japan. Meanwhile until you reference a single official statement or industry estimate of HD-DVD add-ons, your 120K/200K figure remains purely your estimate, and a wildly improbable one at that.
I can tell you if the "needle" doesn't move significantly for Bluray movie sales in December, with all those PS3s out there, then it means that the movie attach rates for the machine are simply abysmal.I'm sure you'll come to that conclusion, and probably relay it here whenever you get the chance. Fortunately the studios have a better sense of the realities of the market and aren't going to make a snap decision based on faulty reasoning.

And if you own a Xbox 360, just knowing you can buy a HD add on for $199 implies that HD DVD is much more affordable than Blu-ray. This is absurd. If you own a PS3 you don't have to spend anything for Blu-ray. Or spend $35 and you'll have a remote, an HDMI cable, and fully-supported audio.

My point would be that there is no "point" to the discussion to begin with. The PS3 is a subsidized player, and that was played to significant advantage in wooing the studios to the Bluray format. Tit for tat? I think so.

Moreover, I don't see the "double-edged sword" here for HD-DVD because all the *other* manufacturer's have to do is wait until HD-DVD tech gets commoditized, and then release their own player.

Well that's the point, HD-DVD is a commoditized price for the Xbox addon. The problem is the cost to build leaves no profit to be made.

b2b

Analyst: Sony Shipped Less than 175,000 PS3s in North America (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=5063)

Numbers keep going downward as time goes by...Pretty soon we'll be hitting zero. :confused:

The only real effect that I can tell for sure about the PS3 numbers is the more they sell the louder and more pervasive the rhetoric gets from the HD-DVD crowd.

The attack-o-meter is going off the high end of scale... ;)

b2b

The only real effect that I can tell for sure about the PS3 numbers is the more they sell the louder and more pervasive the rhetoric gets from the HD-DVD crowd.

The attack-o-meter is going off the high end of scale... ;)

b2b So then you are saying as the launch numbers go down, HD DVD supporters get quieter and less pervasive? :)

Well that's the point, HD-DVD is a commoditized price for the Xbox addon. The problem is the cost to build leaves no profit to be made.

b2bb2b - who cares: a recommendation, if I may. Pick up:

XBox 360
HD-DVD add on
It comes w/KK, but pick up MI:3 as well.

You will not be disappointed.

I am in HD-DVD heaven.

... As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format. The exact same argument could be made on either side.

But since Microsoft is supporting HD DVD with its Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option and Sony is supporting Blu-ray with the Blu-ray drive inserted into the PS3 the chance of both formats coexisting together for years is greatly increased.

Neither Sony nor Microsoft will give up and abandon their products anytime soon and the sales of those items will encourage studios to release in both formats.

Until that is, consumers overwhelmingly choose on side or the other, and one product or another slowly dies a painful death.

b2b - who cares: a recommendation, if I may. Pick up:

XBox 360
HD-DVD add on
It comes w/KK, but pick up MI:3 as well.

You will not be disappointed.

I am in HD-DVD heaven.
i have the 360 and am gonna follow above advice.

MI3 the movie may suck the big one but in HD, it should kick serious butt :D
Also, KK vs the T-rexs.. ahh, heaven

So if the choice is make $0.25 on each side of the fence, or $1 on one side of the fence, which would you choose? As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format.

That's an absolutely bogus arguement, and the video game world is exactly the example that movie studios can use. And the fact that HD DVD ran over your dog and it's "delaying" anything is bogus as well.

The fact is that when you make your product available to more than one market, you are opening up the consumer base in which your product can sell. Your .25/$1 arguement is more along the lines of .75/$1. Instead of making $1 on one side of the fence, you can make .75 on both sides, which is .50 more than if you were on one side.

Gaming companies like EA, UbiSoft, THQ, Etc: have grown leaps and bounds from even 8 years ago. None of those companies are PS3 or Xbox 360 "exclusive", yet EA is the largest game publisher on the planet.

Sorry, but you've got to come up with something better than expanding your consumer base doesn't make you money. ;)

Interesting bit of news regarding the potential 1080i fix on the PS3.

http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/25/sony-retracts-1080i-fix-statement-leaving-customers-in-lurch/

According to GameDaily, Sony cannot actually confirm this issue can be fixed via a firmware patch (although they're not denying it, either), and that they are "looking into the issue and haven't stated any actions that will be taken regarding it."

b2b - who cares: a recommendation, if I may. Pick up:

XBox 360
HD-DVD add on
It comes w/KK, but pick up MI:3 as well.

You will not be disappointed.

I am in HD-DVD heaven.

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD..

b2b

So if the choice is make $0.25 on each side of the fence, or $1 on one side of the fence, which would you choose? As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format.

Talk, I certainly agree with your point about one format vs. two and adoption rates. If the industry really wanted to avoid this situation they should have reached a compromise before going to market. They didn't, and with that failure they guaranteed that HD disc adoption would be slow.

The mass market of consumers is afraid of picking the wrong format. So the future leaves us with one of two scenarios, either one format dies before universal players come to market or both survive long enough that universal players come to market, and the universal players remove consumer fear.

I understand your desire for HD-DVD to go away, so that we can have faster adoption with a single remaining BD format. Here's why I don't believe it will happen.

Many people have referenced VHS vs Betamax to draw analogies to this format war. The better analogy in my opinion is DVD-A vs. SACD. Both were new optical formats that offered the same form factor as their optical predecessors (CD and DVD) with enhanced music performance over previous formats. The vast majority of players that came to market were DVD/CD players that in addition supported either DVD-A or SACD. Both formats were slow to market acceptance because of the format war. In short order companies like Denon brought universal players to market. Neither format killed the other, but the CEs lost the mass market of consumers to Apple and MP3 downloads.

In the case of that format war Sony had the superior solution in SACD. The advantages of SACD were:

1. Support for hybrid discs at launch so any hybrid SACD could play in any CD or SACD player. DVD-A could only play in DVD players or DVD-A players.

2. Strong reviews in the trade rags that SACD was the superior sounding solution.

3. Broader support from record companies large and small.

Even with all of these advantages SACD could not score a knock out victory. Granted Sony made a number of mistakes, but they were far less serious than the mistakes they're making with BD. Based on this I believe there is no chance that either format exits the stage to leave a single format to move forward.

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD..

b2b

Perhaps an A1? Cheaper and more available than a PS3. No games, but it will upconvert SD DVDs. ;)

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=hd-a1&btnG=Search+Froogle

This person makes some interesting comments comparing their Xbox add-on to their PS3 for HD disc playback.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8985485#post8985485

Perhaps an A1? Cheaper and more available than a PS3. No games, but it will upconvert SD DVDs. ;)

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=hd-a1&btnG=Search+Froogle

This person makes some interesting comments comparing their Xbox add-on to their PS3 for HD disc playback.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8985485#post8985485

I looked at the A1 several times... I could see a A1 in my future, a used one @ $99 when folks start unloading them to upgrade to the A2 or XA2.. Problem is finding one that doesn't suffer with all of the problems ;) (around 20% here on AVS report the skipping problem). $99 dollars is worth picking up support for Universal titles. :)

b2b

I looked at the A1 several times... I could see a A1 in my future, a used one @ $99 when folks start unloading them to upgrade to the A2 or XA2.. Problem is finding one that doesn't suffer with all of the problems ;) (around 20% here on AVS report the skipping problem). $99 dollars is worth picking up support for Universal titles. :)

b2b


Is there anyone out there willing to take one for the team? It's almost worth me covering the $186 difference to try and convert you. ;)

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD.. Fair enough. :cool:

Makes me wonder once again...Why do people want single purpose next-gen DVD players? Why does anyone want a standalone CD player? It is an anachronism. People just do not know it yet.

If you own a PS3 you don't have to spend anything for Blu-ray.

Isn't ps3 ownership like 20 times less than 360's ?

Ofcouse if you own HD-A1 you don't have to spend anything for HD DVD. Or for that matter if you own the samsung player you get BD for free :p

Compared with 70,000 standalone

rdjam:

there were at most 70k that could be built. From t5hose (and what Robert said) sopme have not shipped. From the remainder some have not sold. Amnd from the beggining the 70k was not US but international (world)

This is absurd. If you own a PS3 you don't have to spend anything for Blu-ray.Fantastic Talk... PS3 users should hook up with composite and share their experiences. Kudos.

It upsets me that some of these films are being 'dumbed-down & dithered' to 16 bit, when I personally know that the source was 24.

or a lot of BS :) have some fun, look at some f the names of I only have an add on, that you recognize as people that said they had a player a long time ago.

With all due respect Richard you don't have to do much looking on this and other forum to see that exact sentiment from BD supporters. They want BD at the expense of HD DVD. It's very clear here as well. Even you want a "victor", as I do not care if they both hang around.

Michael Mullis: what is wrong with wanting a winner? with a winner the field becomes clean and all the "I don't want to buy a loser" people can buy into it

But why should Fox and Universal limit themselves to one half of the market if they could make money on both sides?
because right now it is costing them money instead of making money. You need millions of players to make sure titles sell in the hundreds of thousands to make money

Neither Sony nor Microsoft will give up and abandon their products anytime soon and the sales of those items will encourage studios to release in both formats.

Kosty. It is an add-on that adds nothing to a console. It can be dropped with no repercussions. MS could stop the add-on , add a BD add-on with no problems. The only people hurt will be the people that were cheap and thought 200$ for HD disks was a good price. MS could not even be blamed for that (it is not as if they can force studios to support HD DVD)

For the PS3, it is more or less the same thing except a bit worst. (i.e. BD is still good for >10gb games so BD will still be there, but one functionality the consumer thought they were getting is no more). Here too they can add an HD DVD add on for movies. The difference is that Sony does own a studio (so the excuse that it is out of their control would not work as well) and the console manufacturing price is higher for no reason (i.e. they can’t switch to HD DVD internally because BD games are out)

That's an absolutely bogus arguement, and the video game world is exactly the example that movie studios can use. And the fact that HD DVD ran over your dog and it's "delaying" anything is bogus as well.

they also charge a hell of a lot more per title

Talk, I certainly agree with your point about one format vs. two and adoption rates. If the industry really wanted to avoid this situation they should have reached a compromise before going to market. They didn't, and with that failure they guaranteed that HD disc adoption would be slow.

CEs consciously made the decision to start this format the war. They knew the consequences of the war. They did the counting and decided that going into this format war is cheaper than backing out when they had their chances. So should we as consumers make it easy on them? Did they take us the consumers into consideration (for our greater benefit ofcouse) when they made their decision to go to war ? :D

if they want a faster adoption of hidef, they would have all threw their support for HD DVD, its cheaper and easier to make yet have the same PQ & AQ as BD. cheaper = faster for consumers to adopt.

So i say, let them suffer !! :D

I have to agree with Michael on this one. I believe the reason why many BD supporters are still hoping for the knock out punch is that if both formats survive (and they will) it means universal players, and that puts BD in a more difficult position than HD-DVD (replication cost of BD-50 vs. HD-DVD 30).
Well, I disagree. There are at least as many vocal HD DVD fanatics as there are Blu-ray fanatics on this forum. Just count those who post links to anything not good for Blu-ray... I mean ANYTHING...

And you're way off on the reason! I'd love universal players, I expect Pioneer to one of the first ones releasing one. But before someone heralds the universal player are the saviour of HD DVD, a couple of questions:

a) When do you think these players will be available?
b) At what price point will they be then?

a) It won't be this April and b) it won't be $300. I'm thinking next fall and at $999 at the cheapest. What does the market look like for Blu-ray and HD DVD by fall 2007? I think millions of PS3s will have been sold, 2nd gen Blu-ray players at lower prices are out and tons of Blu-ray titles will have been released (and replication cost has decreased on both sides, probably more on the Blu-ray side).

OK, so then universal players are released. Now the Blu-ray exclusive studios should suddenly start thinking: "Well, now it doesn't matter what format we support, so we'd just as well switch to HD DVD!" Huh? Anyone but me see something wrong with that statement?

Is there anyone out there willing to take one for the team? It's almost worth me covering the $186 difference to try and convert you. ;)

If I found a reasonable deal to rent a player that would be fine by me.. ;)

b2b

CEs consciously made the decision to start this format the war. They knew the consequences of the war. They did the counting and decided that going into this format war is cheaper than backing out when they had their chances. So should we as consumers make it easy on them? Did they take us the consumers into consideration (for our greater benefit ofcouse) when they made their decision to go to war ? :D

Who really started the war? Toshiba for not wanting to give up on their royalty scheme or the "other" CE's for not wanting to do what Toshiba wanted to do? I guess it depends which "side" you are on...

I can bet I know Universal's reason. Cost. Outfitting standard DVD plants for HD DVD production from everything I read wasn't that expensive. Plus, Universal right now could not put out BD's with "U-Control" because while apparently the structure for those kinds of extras and PiP stuff is standardized with HD DVD, it is not with BD. Which seems to be Warner's reason for not putting certain titles out on BD yet.
It's more than that, for sure. (BTW, Universal never outfitted any plant with gear, they just buy the service, AFAIK.) Look at the dealings between Microsoft, Toshiba and Universal. Don't you think it is a tiny bit weird, that Universal (and JUST Universal, no other recording studio) is getting money from Microsoft on ALL Zunes being sold (made by Toshiba)? Why would Microsoft agree to such a deal? Why? (Why not Sony(!), Warner, EMI or Bertelsman too?) Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I just think it is less than a coincidence.

As for security, not sure what the lack of it on HD DVD is at this point. Universal, Warner, Paramount, Genius Company, and Image don't seem to really have a concern with security and CP on HD DVD. So I am not sure, simply for lack of info, what makes BD more secure.

BD is more secure due to BD+, a much hated feature, especially by MS. In fact, IIRC it was their main reason for saying they won't support it in their OS's. We're still early in the HD content game. I'd say the chances for hacking just AACS is higher than AACS and BD+. What happens when DVD Jon decides to make HD content freely available and hacks AACS? Then HD DVD is hacked and Blu-ray is still secure. What then? (OK, I know it will be a while, AACS isn't easily hacked, but to say it is foolproof is optimistic. Of course, the same is true for BD+, but it will most likely take even longer.) We'll see.

What would happen to HD DVD vs. Blu-ray support if HD DVD is hacked next summer?

Interesting discussion over in the Insider thread. Is there a sound issue with the Xbox 360 HD DVD add on? (Soundtracks sounding flat.) More investigation is to be performed, so we'll know soon. If there is an issue, can it be fixed with a firmware/dashboard update?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8992354&&#post8992354

Well, I disagree. There are at least as many vocal HD DVD fanatics as there are Blu-ray fanatics on this forum. Just count those who post links to anything not good for Blu-ray... I mean ANYTHING...

And you're way off on the reason! I'd love universal players, I expect Pioneer to one of the first ones releasing one. But before someone heralds the universal player are the saviour of HD DVD, a couple of questions:

a) When do you think these players will be available?
b) At what price point will they be then?

a) It won't be this April and b) it won't be $300. I'm thinking next fall and at $999 at the cheapest. What does the market look like for Blu-ray and HD DVD by fall 2007? I think millions of PS3s will have been sold, 2nd gen Blu-ray players at lower prices are out and tons of Blu-ray titles will have been released (and replication cost has decreased on both sides, probably more on the Blu-ray side).

OK, so then universal players are released. Now the Blu-ray exclusive studios should suddenly start thinking: "Well, now it doesn't matter what format we support, so we'd just as well switch to HD DVD!" Huh? Anyone but me see something wrong with that statement?


I stand corrected then. :)

As for your questions.

a) 11/07
b) $999 (we agree on this one)

When will see a $300 universal player? Probably 11/08. I don't expect there to be some fast move from SD DVD to new formats. This will play out over many years. SD DVD will continue to dominate for years. The installed base is huge, as is the installed based for SD Televisions. Keep in mind most people don't own HD TVs. They own SD TVs with SD DVD players. I believe the majority of these people will make the jump to HD over the next 5-7 years. Universal players shipping within a year of PS3 is a small window when you look at the big picture.

So if the majority of consumers are on the side lines, and those consumers won't be diving into these new products for another couple of years, neither side can gain true dominance, and neither side will give up. As consumers enter the market and do research over the next few years, most will learn that they don't need to pick a format, they can have both. Most consumers faced with a choice between two formats today walk away. If a universal player is on the shelves, even at $2,000, most will stay with SD DVD and wait for the cost of universal players to come down before jumping in. Even the least savy consumers have learned about pricing patterns in technology life cycles.

In regards to PS3, yes it will sell millions of units by 11/07, but they will be purchased primarily by people who want a game system, not people looking for a BD player. The BD exclusive studios may continue to stay with BD, and if they can truly get the costs down and work out hybrids, they may continue to stay in that format. Now if your Warner, you're not going to want to continue to do dual release of titles if it's not really necessary any longer.

I believe both formats will survive. Sony pictures will always use BD. In the long run, we may see BD become more popular because of the increased storage capacity per layer. In the near term, I believe HD-DVD would prosper because it's easier and cheaper to ramp up to the large production levels studios will need, and the hybrid technology is already worked out to offer a seamless transtion at the retail level.

Interesting discussion over in the Insider thread. Is there a sound issue with the Xbox 360 HD DVD add on? (Soundtracks sounding flat.) More investigation is to be performed, so we'll know soon. If there is an issue, can it be fixed with a firmware/dashboard update?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8992354&&#post8992354

FilmMixer does soundtrack work professionally. I thought his explanation on this was pretty clear. There's nothing to fix.

Quote from FilmMixer

Every disc that I have heard on my system has had a noticeable improvemen in sound quality over their SD counterparts... including the films I have mixed personally.. I have been listening to most titles on an Anthem D2 using PCM from the A1..... there is nothing wrong with the discs... DANSK was speaking in generalities and was taking about thinkgs that I felt were too nebulous to lead to answers.. hence the reason I asked what connections, etc... But saying that some parts of a mix don't sound as good as others is like saying some parts of a movie have pretty scenery to look at part of the time and drab interiors the next... every movie is dynamic, so how can that be a format or hardware problem..

That's an absolutely bogus arguement, and the video game world is exactly the example that movie studios can use.I'm sorry you disagree, but many analysts have estimated that as long as there are two formats in the marketplace total sales will be 1/2 of what either format would have seen had the battle been resolved to a single format. It should be easy to find such references with a bit of Google help.
Your .25/$1 arguement is more along the lines of .75/$1. Instead of making $1 on one side of the fence, you can make .75 on both sides, which is .50 more than if you were on one side.Right now it's more like lose $3/title in one format, or lose $6/title for both formats, since volumes are far too low for profit. With volume comes profits; as long as critical mass isn't reached, the studios will lose more by supporting both formats. Further, since supporting both formats means delaying overall consumer adoption, doing so delays profitability regardless of whether supporting one format or both.

I agree that the game market supports multiple consoles. Historically it has always done so, and the consoles tend to segment themselves demographically. It's a different analogy, however. For the most part game titles are created exclusively for game consoles. If a brand new console launches with suitably compelling content it may do well. High-def DVD players require content which for the most part is coming from movie theatres or television series. Both formats are targeting the same demographics (A/V enthusiasts). There is far less differentiation between the formats than there is between rival game consoles, so consumers' fear of begin stuck with a losing format is a significant de-motivator.

I stand corrected then. :)

As for your questions.

a) 11/07
b) $999 (we agree on this one)

When will see a $300 universal player? Probably 11/08. I don't expect there to be some fast move from SD DVD to new formats. This will play out over many years. SD DVD will continue to dominate for years. The installed base is huge, as is the installed based for SD Televisions. Keep in mind most people don't own HD TVs. They own SD TVs with SD DVD players. I believe the majority of these people will make the jump to HD over the next 5-7 years. Universal players shipping within a year of PS3 is a small window when you look at the big picture.

So if the majority of consumers are on the side lines, and those consumers won't be diving into these new products for another couple of years, neither side can gain true dominance, and neither side will give up. As consumers enter the market and do research over the next few years, most will learn that they don't need to pick a format, they can have both. Most consumers faced with a choice between two formats today walk away. If a universal player is on the shelves, even at $2,000, most will stay with SD DVD and wait for the cost of universal players to come down before jumping in. Even the least savy consumers have learned about pricing patterns in technology life cycles.

In regards to PS3, yes it will sell millions of units by 11/07, but they will be purchased primarily by people who want a game system, not people looking for a BD player. The BD exclusive studios may continue to stay with BD, and if they can truly get the costs down and work out hybrids, they may continue to stay in that format. Now if your Warner, you're not going to want to continue to do dual release of titles if it's not really necessary any longer.

I believe both formats will survive. Sony pictures will always use BD. In the long run, we may see BD become more popular because of the increased storage capacity per layer. In the near term, I believe HD-DVD would prosper because it's easier and cheaper to ramp up to the large production levels studios will need, and the hybrid technology is already worked out to offer a seamless transtion at the retail level.

Seems that the only place that really works for hybrid is the rental space and even that has problems with people putting the discs in wrong way up. The majority of comments here on AVS have been less than happy with the extra $5 dollars for a hybrid disc. Plus too the replication costs and cycle times are weak compared to HD-DVD DL 30GB.

b2b

FilmMixer does soundtrack work professionally. I thought his explanation on this was pretty clear. There's nothing to fix.

You left out the rest of his post:

Quote from FilmMixer

It does indeed seem that a lot of people are having issues with the add on in their setup.. And some people seem to claim that there are some settings in the 360 dashboard that helps the issue.. I am not using my Add-On in my theater, and I don't have a standalone player since I've sold my A1 in anticipation of the upcoming A2... until then, I cannot do an A-B, level matched comparison to see what the re-encodes are doing on each platform..

I can only assume that Amir has been in touch with the Add-On team at Microsoft regarding this possible issue, and if something isn't up to snuff, they will let us know.

It certainly sounds like he does agree there seems to be a problem.

Best mainstream article I've seen summing up where the "war" stands..
"It's too early to know which one to go with," said Sardo, 28, after browsing a Fairfax, Va., store for a next-generation DVD player to go with his new 42-inch high-definition television. "It's like betting on which team will win the Super Bowl before pre-season games start."

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2006/Nov/26/bz/FP611260309.html

b2b

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

This poll of AVS members clearly indicates that new people are buying the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option and that the numbers of previous HD DVD owners buying one is relatively small.

BTW 476 is a nice large number for a poll here on AVS. That's indicative of a large demand.

hmm the last count was 582 units ! :D

Seems that the only place that really works for hybrid is the rental space and even that has problems with people putting the discs in wrong way up. The majority of comments here on AVS have been less than happy with the extra $5 dollars for a hybrid disc. Plus too the replication costs and cycle times are weak compared to HD-DVD DL 30GB.

b2b

So are you saying that the industry sees no value in hybrid discs?

If so, can you explain why BD is trying to develop a hybrid disc?

You left out the rest of his post:

Quote from FilmMixer

It does indeed seem that a lot of people are having issues with the add on in their setup.. And some people seem to claim that there are some settings in the 360 dashboard that helps the issue.. I am not using my Add-On in my theater, and I don't have a standalone player since I've sold my A1 in anticipation of the upcoming A2... until then, I cannot do an A-B, level matched comparison to see what the re-encodes are doing on each platform..

I can only assume that Amir has been in touch with the Add-On team at Microsoft regarding this possible issue, and if something isn't up to snuff, they will let us know.

It certainly sounds like he does agree there seems to be a problem.

I apologize Talk, that was my mistake. Nilsp was clearly talking about an issue with the add-on player as opposed to a problem with the discs themselves. FilmMixer was saying the discs are fine (the quote I pulled), but perhaps there's an issue with the add-on player (the quote you pulled). You are correct.

So are you saying that the industry sees no value in hybrid discs?

If so, can you explain why BD is trying to develop a hybrid disc?

I read one comment from the HD-DVD side that all discs would have been hybrid, but there isn't enough replication equipment to do it on. The industry seems quite happy with it, it's the customers that don't seem too keen on hybrids.

BD did prototypes, but it was the same story as the single sided HD-DVD hybrid.. compatability with millions of crappy DVD players.

b2b

Hmm.. The Washington Post article is making the rounds... Now a Florida paper.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061125/BUSINESS/611250319

Millions are going to read this and go ""oh well.... guess we can wait a while for the dust to settle..."

b2b

BD is more secure due to BD+, a much hated feature, especially by MS. In fact, IIRC it was their main reason for saying they won't support it in their OS's. We're still early in the HD content game. I'd say the chances for hacking just AACS is higher than AACS and BD+. What happens when DVD Jon decides to make HD content freely available and hacks AACS? Then HD DVD is hacked and Blu-ray is still secure. What then? (OK, I know it will be a while, AACS isn't easily hacked, but to say it is foolproof is optimistic. Of course, the same is true for BD+, but it will most likely take even longer.) We'll see.

What would happen to HD DVD vs. Blu-ray support if HD DVD is hacked next summer?

To my impression, the only thing that AACS does as an end result was player revocation, as a deterrant for non-compliant/sloppy hardware makers. Is there any reason why any HD DVD player (par refusing to play HD DVD-r's) can't play a duplicated HD DVD disc (along with its AACS shell)? Just curious.

Hmm.. The Washington Post article is making the rounds... Now a Florida paper.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061125/BUSINESS/611250319

Millions are going to read this and go ""oh well.... guess we can wait a while for the dust to settle..."

b2b

Let's hope things don't shift to downloads while this all plays out. If Apple ships a cute white box for the living room that connects to iTunes for movie downloads I'm going to be completely depressed. :(

Oh no.....

http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/11/26/mytvpal-launching-1080p-vod-service-next-week/

At least it's not Apple with their cute white boxes.

This is starting to feel like SACD vs. DVD-A all over again.

Let's hope things don't shift to downloads while this all plays out. If Apple ships a cute white box for the living room that connects to iTunes for movie downloads I'm going to be completely depressed. :(

While I would hate to see that happen, I don't think there's enough bandwidth to stream artifact-free HD in real time to a large user base.

While I would hate to see that happen, I don't think there's enough bandwidth to stream artifact-free HD in real time to a large user base.

I don't believe real time streaming is required for this type of service to succeed. Netflix makes you wait to get your movie, but they still stole many of Blockbusters customers.

With Netflix you have to wait a couple of days, but the selection is huge, the cost is good and no late fees. If a download service could deliver your movie in less than 24 hours and let you hold it on your hard disc until after you've finished watching it, it could succeed. Cost of service delivery would be less than Netflix but selection is still probably the biggest challenge right now. My guess is the studios will embrace it if they felt comfortable with the security used.

Personally, I'd be happy if the Hollywood Studios would just forget about all this copy protection shiat and be done with it all. Create a Hybrid Player, keep your formats and your greedy patents. Release both and make all consumers happy.

Charge people 5$'s to make one copy that can't be transfered, and $5's extra for additional copies, wether it be to a media streamer, extra PC, Portable Ipod, etc. For those with high speed fios like services, create a Video on Demand service.

EVERYONE will be happy so long as the studios don't get greedy and try to raise their prices...

Personally, I'd be happy if the Hollywood Studios would just forget about all this copy protection shiat and be done with it all. Create a Hybrid Player, keep your formats and your greedy patents. Release both and make all consumers happy.

Charge people 5$'s to make one copy that can't be transfered, and $5's extra for additional copies, wether it be to a media streamer, extra PC, Portable Ipod, etc. For those with high speed fios like services, create a Video on Demand service.

EVERYONE will be happy so long as the studios don't get greedy and try to raise their prices...

That would be hoping for a miracle.. "Happy Feet", "Casino Royale".... local theater admission price $9.25 :eek:

b2b

That would be hoping for a miracle.. "Happy Feet", "Casino Royale".... local theater admission price $9.25 :eek:

b2b


No doubt. By the time you spring for popcorn and a drink, you've just paid for the HD-DVD or BR...

Add into the equation screaming babies, whining children, chatty teenagers, and ringing cellphones, and I really don't miss the theater at all any more.

The only time I've been in the theater in the last ten years, has been to see Star Wars Movies.

If we had a space big enough for a 100" Screen and projector, and someplace nicer than the spider infested basement to put it, we'd get a projector and be done with the theater all together.

I'm surprised they are still in business ;)

I can't even watch a TV or Radio live anymore thanks to DVR and PVR's that skip over the commercials :).

Definitely.

I barely like going to movies even with my modest home theater setup. And when I do, I prefer a setup like the Arclight for reserved seating, ushers who actually do something, the superior legroom, etc. If I had something like Thomas Marshall's incredible setup, i'd NEVER go.

Michael Mullis: what is wrong with wanting a winner? with a winner the field becomes clean and all the "I don't want to buy a loser" people can buy into it

I see, so what happens if HD DVD "wins". Are you ready or willing to drop your Blu-ray equipment and re-invest another $500-$1000 in an HD DVD player?


because right now it is costing them money instead of making money. You need millions of players to make sure titles sell in the hundreds of thousands to make money

Millions? Well, then both formats are screwed, aren't they?

Warner BTW announced a little earlier this year they were pleased that their HD DVD movies sales "met or exceeded expectations". Sounds like they were doing just fine. So are they losing money on Blu-ray? So.......shouldn't HD DVD win then?

These are the questions that make studios supporting both formats easier to understand.


they also charge a hell of a lot more per title

Anthony, there is also a WHOLE LOT more than goes into the process of making a video game than it is to transfer and press a movie disc. Development costs of some video games rival the costs of a low-budget movie. So of course they are going to charge more for the game.


Right now it's more like lose $3/title in one format, or lose $6/title for both formats, since volumes are far too low for profit. With volume comes profits; as long as critical mass isn't reached, the studios will lose more by supporting both formats. Further, since supporting both formats means delaying overall consumer adoption, doing so delays profitability regardless of whether supporting one format or both.

So, if companies are losing $3 a title, then why are they making them in the first place? You would think critical mass would equal more losses, and run themselves out of business by video sales.


I agree that the game market supports multiple consoles. Historically it has always done so, and the consoles tend to segment themselves demographically. It's a different analogy, however. For the most part game titles are created exclusively for game consoles. If a brand new console launches with suitably compelling content it may do well. High-def DVD players require content which for the most part is coming from movie theatres or television series. Both formats are targeting the same demographics (A/V enthusiasts). There is far less differentiation between the formats than there is between rival game consoles, so consumers' fear of begin stuck with a losing format is a significant de-motivator.

Considering how fierce the gaming market is, and covering it for as long as I have, I have to disagree with this. The demographics of the video game market are quite clear, and all three console makers are currently shooting for that specific market. I think if anything there is far less differentiation in the gaming market than in the movie market. Companies make their games for both formats to allow the consumer the opportunity to play their games on the format they chose (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii). It's the same scenerio I want in the HD movie market. Do as Warner does. Support both formats, and let the consumer decide, and purchase the version on the format they chose.

The more you force a choice on the public, the more risk you run of the public not wanting to be forced into into.

I can bet I know Universal's reason. Cost. Outfitting standard DVD plants for HD DVD production from everything I read wasn't that expensive.Personally I don't think it is the cost of Blu-ray production that is preventing Universal from releasing on Blu-ray. Also Universal wouldn't need to make a Blu-ray production plant simply to release on Blu-ray.


Plus, Universal right now could not put out BD's with "U-Control" because while apparently the structure for those kinds of extras and PiP stuff is standardized with HD DVD, it is not with BD.Well it would be nice to think that Universal is simply waiting to put out Blu-ray titles with equivalent features as their HD DVD releases.


As for security, not sure what the lack of it on HD DVD is at this point. Universal, Warner, Paramount, Genius Company, and Image don't seem to really have a concern with security and CP on HD DVD. So I am not sure, simply for lack of info, what makes BD more secure.Fox believes that Blu-ray is more secure than HD DVD and without getting into a debate I would point out that is all that really matters. Since Fox believes Blu-ray is more secure it is unlikely that they will support HD DVD unless Blu-ray fails and it is unlikely Blu-ray will fail as long as Fox exclusively supports it. As far as I know there is no equivalent reason for Universal not to support Blu-ray.


The more you force a choice on the public, the more risk you run of the public not wanting to be forced into into.Agreed, as long as we are talking about HD DVD that is ;). Seriously though competition is at the heart of capitalism and it is not surprising that there are two competing HD video formats (technically around half a dozen if you include the red laser based HD formats).

Fox believes that Blu-ray is more secure than HD DVD and without getting into a debate I would point out that is all that really matters. Since Fox believes Blu-ray is more secure it is unlikely that they will support HD DVD unless Blu-ray fails and it is unlikely Blu-ray will fail as long as Fox exclusively supports it. As far as I know there is no equivalent reason for Universal not to support Blu-ray.

I would tend to believe money transcends all that. Warner has been satisfied with their expectations of HD DVD sales. I would think so is Universal. It would seem to me that if Fox is sitting on stock of Blu-ray titles while watching other studios successfully selling HD DVD stock, at some point Fox is going to want to get in on that.

And that goes to one of my other points. Right now, I spend $0 on Fox Blu-ray titles. So far I have purchased or have on pre-order 7 Warner titles (Goodfellas, Dukes of Hazzard, Batman Begins, Superman Returns, Superman, Superman II Richard Donner, The Ant-Bully). If Fox was supporting HD DVD, that would guarantee movie sales from me.

At some point, I would think even Fox would decide money is more important than hanging onto a format exclusive because it's more secure, if in fact it is. Again, I simply don't have enough solid info to know one way or another. Everytime someone tells me something is secure, someone finds a way around it pretty quickly.


Agreed, as long as we are talking about HD DVD that is .

Hehehe, I caught that. It's funny though because I made the choice of my format. I wasn't forced to buy HD DVD, and I am not forced to buy into Blu-ray. Price was my determination, and I was able to exercise my "rights" as a consumer. That's all I am asking for.


Edit: I found something interesting which may answer another question.

As far as I know there is no equivalent reason for Universal not to support Blu-ray.

http://dvd.themanroom.com/dvd-newsview.php?id=375

Universal continues to put their best foot forward with their handling of HD-DVD as proven by these additional details for their upcoming 'Miami Vice (Unrated Director's Cut)' December release.

In addition to lossless Dolby TrueHD audio, the Combo Format HD-DVD/DVD will also include an audio commentary track with writer-director-producer Michael Mann along with the following extras powered by Microsoft's HDi- technology:

I wonder if part of their alliance to HD DVD is a deal of some sort with Microsoft on authoring tools?

Well that's the point, HD-DVD is a commoditized price for the Xbox addon. The problem is the cost to build leaves no profit to be made.

b2b


Sure it will- over time. After all, they won't be the one's trying to recoup R&D, and the initial high cost of manufacturing. In essence, Toshiba will bear that cost for them.

Look at how commoditized the DVD player market has become. After the players and manufacturing processes for HD-DVD have been streamlined, and the parts are commoditized more, then there will be far less inhibition for someone like Samsung to enter the HD-DVD market.

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD..

b2b


Fire up GoW and then get back to me on those "downsides". ;)

Besides that, the 360 w/add-on makes very little noise while playing HD-DVD. In fact, I can't hear it above the constant whirr of my 4805. ;)

Ugh another combo. At least I didn't like Miami Vice that much when I saw it in the movies. I am making sure I don't buy any of the combos and hopefully the studios will get the message.

Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez
Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD.. I have to admit B2when you're on a roll, you have a way with words when you are doing those attack posts. I may want to hire you for writing attack ads for my next local election cycle.

Fire up GoW and then get back to me on those "downsides".

Besides that, the 360 w/add-on makes very little noise while playing HD-DVD. In fact, I can't hear it above the constant whirr of my 4805. Well with the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player add on sales to date being as strong as they are, most 360 owners must disagree with the above "ugly looking" post. I know its a shock, but real consumers may have a different take on the situation than some of the spin here implies.

BTW do you think a neutered copy of a comedy, Talladega Nights, showcases HD content better than King Kong, an effects laden action movie, does?

PS3 problems abound as second batch to hit shelves in December (http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20061127PD205.html)

Second batch? What happened to 100,000 PS3s per week, for a total of four? (no), two? (no), one million by end of calendar year?

Did anyone post from C E D recently?

This was from Friday...

The content launched on the first anniversary of Xbox 360's launch; as of Sept. 30, 6 million units of the console sold, according to Microsoft, which expects to have sold “at least 10 million... by holiday.” It expects the system will be available in 37 countries by then.

“We’re exactly where we wanted to be this holiday with Xbox 360 retail stock availability,” said Jeff Bell, Microsoft Interactive Entertainment corporate vp-global mktg. The 360 will “have a booming holiday,”with consoles accompanied at retail by new accessories like the Xbox 360 wireless racing wheel, Xbox Live Vision camera and Xbox 360 HD DVD player, Microsoft said. But Microsoft corporate Vp-Interactive Entertainment Peter Moore told Consumer Electronics Daily early this month “I worry a little bit” about supplies of the HD DVD player, based on strong initial demand at Amazon.com (CED Nov 8 p4). The player, readily available at Amazon Wed., was listed as the #3 best-selling 360 product, trailing games Gears of War from Microsoft and Activision’s Call of Duty 3.
Blue laser diodes - who would have thought they would play a pivotal role?

http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/images/copernio_1.gif

http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/main_sections/news_archive/2003_free/1111_dab_tables.htm

http://www.dvd-intelligence.com/main_sections/news_archive/2003_free/1111_dab_tables.htm

With just a month left in 2006 I don't think the 4.5% for this year is going to make it. Maybe around .50% is more like it.

b2b

Sure it will- over time. After all, they won't be the one's trying to recoup R&D, and the initial high cost of manufacturing. In essence, Toshiba will bear that cost for them.

Look at how commoditized the DVD player market has become. After the players and manufacturing processes for HD-DVD have been streamlined, and the parts are commoditized more, then there will be far less inhibition for someone like Samsung to enter the HD-DVD market.

I think that's what the CE companies are afraid of.. ;) What's the point of trading one dead-end product class for another dead-end.

b2b

With just a month left in 2006 I don't think the 4.5% for this year is going to make it. Maybe around .50% is more like it.Well, that page does have "2003" in the URL. :)

I have to admit B2when you're on a roll, you have a way with words when you are doing those attack posts. I may want to hire you for writing attack ads for my next local election cycle.

Well with the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player add on sales to date being as strong as they are, most 360 owners must disagree with the above "ugly looking" post. I know its a shock, but real consumers may have a different take on the situation than some of the spin here implies.

BTW do you think a neutered copy of a comedy, Talladega Nights, showcases HD content better than King Kong, an effects laden action movie, does?

Put 5 Xbox + 5 addons on display (power bricks, wired up and ready to run) and do the same with 5 PS3. Then bring in 25 random women to select the product based on esthetics and you will discover that the Xbox is the equivalent of female kryptonite... :eek:

The Xbox+addon will rate right up there with a pair of worn sneakers+dirty athletic shorts as something a female would want on display in "her" living/family room. ;)

b2b

a woman wouldn't want ANY game console on display in her living room...not to mention trying to explain to a woman that in order to watch a movie she needs to fire up the gaming console ;)

Plextor PX-B900A Blu-Ray drive review (http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=19105)

a woman wouldn't want ANY game console on display in her living room...not to mention trying to explain to a woman that in order to watch a movie she needs to fire up the gaming console ;)

That's the point of the PS3... it doesn't look like a game console. :)

b2b

Put 5 Xbox + 5 addons on display (power bricks, wired up and ready to run) and do the same with 5 PS3. Then bring in 25 random women to select the product based on esthetics and you will discover that the Xbox is the equivalent of female kryptonite...

My wife thought it was "cute", sitting on top of the Xbox 360. "It's like it's little son", she said. And she's a very bright woman, so it wasn't a blonde comment.


That's the point of the PS3... it doesn't look like a game console.

It doesn't? With the big PLAYSTATION 3 plastered on top and and card reader/usb ports on the front?

My wife thought it was "cute", sitting on top of the Xbox 360. "It's like it's little son", she said. And she's a very bright woman, so it wasn't a blonde comment.




It doesn't? With the big PLAYSTATION 3 plastered on top and and card reader/usb ports on the front?

I case you missed it, they are covered with a lift up panel..

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2006/1111/ps3_12.jpg

b2b

That's the point of the PS3... it doesn't look like a game console. :)

b2b
You’re delusional if you think the average Josephine is going to warm up to the idea of using a game console as a DVD player. Now by all means let the “well my wife...” comments pour in, which proves my point for me. Our wives and girlfriends hardly exemplify the average consumer as they live with A/V geeks.

That's the point of the PS3... it doesn't look like a game console. :)

b2b

you're focusing on aesthetics, which is certainly one thing a woman looks to, but more importantly, in my experience, is the user experience for a woman...there is no hiding the fact that it IS a game console.

and, just to be clear, the ps3 DOES NOT look like a piece of a/v equipment...so yes, it does look like a game console, just a shiny black one...

you're focusing on aesthetics, which is certainly one thing a woman looks to, but more importantly, in my experience, is the user experience for a woman...there is no hiding the fact that it IS a game console.

and, just to be clear, the ps3 DOES NOT look like a piece of a/v equipment...so yes, it does look like a game console, just a shiny black one...

The PS3 doesn't look like anything except a PS3. I doesn't look like any other game console or A/V component. The point is that it looks good and not butt ugly like a lot of equipment (including the Xbox and "it's little son") ;)

b2b

The PS3 doesn't look like anything except a PS3. I doesn't look like any other game console or A/V component. The point is that it looks good and not butt ugly like a lot of equipment (including the Xbox and "it's little son") ;)

b2b

i've been absent from avs since late wednesday and boy i didn't miss it one bit...

your post leaves me scratching my head since when the gamecube came out it looked only like the gamecube, when the first xbox came out it looked only like the xbox, when the xbox 360 came out it looked only like the xbox 360, when the ps3 came out it looked only like the ps3, when the wii came out it looked only like the wii...

none of them looks like a piece of a/v equipment and all may be deemed "butt ugly" in any person't POV... ;)

Does there really need to be this much discussion about how the players/consoles look? Although there may be small interest to the players appearance to everyone I doubt very highly if this has influenced anyone’s decision on how the player performs or prevented anyone from purchasing it.

Does there really need to be this much discussion about how the players/consoles look?


this thread is really not the place to discuss game platforms at all

b2b, I know it's covered by a flip-panel. But it's there, and it's not something you see on your standard DVD player.

Again, my wife is used to using the Xbox 360 as a DVD player, because she knows that I am a game player. So to her the look of the 360 and the add-on isn't taken into account.

But I agree the PS3 simply does not look like a piece of A/V equipment. It looks like exactly what it is, a PS3.

Mark, I think b2b's point was how it looks as A/V equipment. I don't think we're getting into a gaming platform debate here.

this thread is really not the place to discuss game platforms at all

Well with the PS3 with it's BD movie disc player capability and the HD-DVD addon to the Xbox, plus the fact that they are going to be the respective #1 and #2 top selling HD disc devices, it's going to be hard not to include them in a valid discussion. I have tried to avoid the "game play" aspect in any discussion.

b2b

b2b, I know it's covered by a flip-panel. But it's there, and it's not something you see on your standard DVD player.

Again, my wife is used to using the Xbox 360 as a DVD player, because she knows that I am a game player. So to her the look of the 360 and the add-on isn't taken into account.

But I agree the PS3 simply does not look like a piece of A/V equipment. It looks like exactly what it is, a PS3.

Mark, I think b2b's point was how it looks as A/V equipment. I don't think we're getting into a gaming platform debate here.

I'm sitting here with a 2003 vintage Sampo DVE-631CF in front of me and it has a card slot right next to the disc loader..

b2b

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20061127PD205.html

While Sony is preparing to deliver its second batch of PS3 game consoles in December, consumers who are currently enjoying the new gaming device reportedly have encountered problems with the console, including overheating, inability to start up the console, and a lower display resolution from its Blu-ray Disc (BD) player, according to market sources

Well with the PS3 with it's BD movie disc player capability and the HD-DVD addon to the Xbox, plus the fact that they are going to be the respective #1 and #2 top selling HD disc devices, it's going to be hard not to include them in a valid discussion. I have tried to avoid the "game play" aspect in any discussion.

b2b

Fair enough :)

I have to admit B2when you're on a roll, you have a way with words when you are doing those attack posts. I may want to hire you for writing attack ads for my next local election cycle.

An attack post? That was an attack post? You must be a very sensitive person. ;) I thought it was a very accurate description of the combo. He was even nice enough to not mention the noise level from the two units. In fact, how anyone aestetically prefers two units over one, totally escapes me. "Cute"? I mean, really?

Plextor PX-B900A Blu-Ray drive review (http://www.cdrinfo.com/Sections/News/Details.aspx?NewsId=19105)
Thanks for the link, Grubert. Looking like a solid unit. Now the price on it and media needs to come down. 50GB on one disc. That is a lot of Battlestar Galactica episodes! :)

Does there really need to be this much discussion about how the players/consoles look? Although there may be small interest to the players appearance to everyone I doubt very highly if this has influenced anyone’s decision on how the player performs or prevented anyone from purchasing it.
Well no there isn't any need, but how the equipment looks seems to be most important to b2b, not the actual movie quality. :) Interesting, now we see where he is coming from. I now understand why you like Blu-ray better.

-Mark

Your own number said the worst case was 125,000 PS3s - now you say the lowest worst case is 200,000?

So let's look at N. America alone - 125,000 PS3s and 10,000 BR standalone players.

Compared with 70,000 standalone HD DVD players plus 120,000 (or maybe 200,000) Xbox HD DVD players.

So the number COULD be 135,000 Bluray players, versus 190,000 or even 270,000 HD DVD players. And that doesn't include the fact that most of those PS3 bluray players will have a MUCH lower movie attach rate than ANY of the HD DVD players counted - by anyone's estimation.

But my real POINT was PROVE IT... You make a statement of fact in your signature that you cannot back up. All of our estimations are just guesses - your statement is not based on fact.

False - while this is true of some of them, most of these machines are not going to sit unused for a month. People are too keen to tear them open and fire them up.

My opinion is that this is just another "delaying" tactic to prevent studios and pundits from reaching any judgements on the format in time for CES. Bluray people do NOT want any studio announcements at CES, so are NOW telling everyone "Hey, you can't use December sales as an indication - everyone is hiding those 150,000 PS3s away and are not using them. WAIT another 2 months!"

I can tell you if the "needle" doesn't move significantly for Bluray movie sales in December, with all those PS3s out there, then it means that the movie attach rates for the machine are simply abysmal.

He can't prove it. He makes an absolute statement predicated on a future time frame. Unless he's got a red phone on his desk that God calls, his sig remains nothing more than an opinion.

When I called Talk on this in the HD DVD VI thread, he opted to not respond.


Oh, and for the record, I'm pretty sure God doesn't care one whit about the format war.

Well no there isn't any need, but how the equipment looks seems to be most important to b2b, not the actual movie quality. :) Interesting, now we see where he is coming from. I now understand why you like Blu-ray better.

-Mark

The actual "movie quality" is something that the studios control when they put the content on the discs. Is there some kind of PQ guarantee that is part of the HD-DVD spec ?? Funny, I haven't seen one. Is HD-DVD immune to bad masters and QC problems with encoding ?? Nope, don't think so.

DVD had plenty of bad transfers and any HD material (disc, download, VOD...) is going to have the same problems over time.

b2b

He can't prove it. He makes an absolute statement predicated on a future time frame. Unless he's got a red phone on his desk that God calls, his sig remains nothgin more than an opinion.

When I called Talk on this in the HD DVD VI thread, he opted to not respond.


Oh, and for the record, I'm pretty sure God doesn't care one whit about the format war.

500,000 of the first PS3s are going to have a BD movie right in the box, right at the fingertips of each and everyone of those people who own a PS3.

I asked the DTV Tivo guy to make a guess what percentage of those PS3 owners would take the time to pop that BD disc into the box and give it a try. I estimated that at least >90% would do that.

The reply I got back was silence. Why ?? The shear numbers of PS3 are going to put more BD players in homes more than any amount of low ball pricing that HD-DVD could ever afford to do. It's hard to beat "free and in the box". Ask Netscape how that turned out against Explorer... ;)

b2b

500,000 of the first PS3s are going to have a BD movie right in the box, right at the fingertips of each and everyone of those people who own a PS3.

I asked the DTV Tivo guy to make a guess what percentage of those PS3 owners would take the time to pop that BD disc into the box and give it a try. I estimated that at least >90% would do that.

The reply I got back was silence. Why ?? The shear numbers of PS3 are going to put more BD players in homes more than any amount of low ball pricing that HD-DVD could ever afford to do. It's hard to beat "free and in the box". Ask Netscape how that turned out against Explorer... ;)

b2b

I dont understand why you make it out that low balling / subsidizing is a bad thing for HD DVD but a good thing when done by PS3/BR. Hopefully the format with the best PQ/AQ wins and not neccessarily the format with the best marketing scheme

500,000 of the first PS3s are going to have a BD movie right in the box, right at the fingertips of each and everyone of those people who own a PS3.

I asked the DTV Tivo guy to make a guess what percentage of those PS3 owners would take the time to pop that BD disc into the box and give it a try. I estimated that at least >90% would do that.

The reply I got back was silence. Why ?? The shear numbers of PS3 are going to put more BD players in homes more than any amount of low ball pricing that HD-DVD could ever afford to do. It's hard to beat "free and in the box". Ask Netscape how that turned out against Explorer... ;)

b2b

OK b2b. Good for you. Have a treat.

It doesn't address that Talk's .sig predicts the future.

Unless of course you want to put your moneysig where his mouth is. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8909775&&#post8909775)

how many bad encodes of talladega nights is sony offloading onto new ps3 owners? ;)

it is a limited distribution thing, isn't it, much like kong?

500,000 of the first PS3s are going to have a BD movie right in the box, right at the fingertips of each and everyone of those people who own a PS3.

I asked the DTV Tivo guy to make a guess what percentage of those PS3 owners would take the time to pop that BD disc into the box and give it a try. I estimated that at least >90% would do that.

The reply I got back was silence. Why ?? The shear numbers of PS3 are going to put more BD players in homes more than any amount of low ball pricing that HD-DVD could ever afford to do. It's hard to beat "free and in the box". Ask Netscape how that turned out against Explorer... ;)

b2b

Bad analogy b2b. The first disc (and poor example of BD) is free and in the box. They'll have to pay for additional content. What if they look at that disc and say, "you know, this isn't so much better than my DVD player." Worse yet, better hope little Billy (with a PS3) doesn't visit little Johny with a 360 w/ add-on and watches King Kong.

Back to all of those millions of PS3 players in everyones homes. What percentage do you think will start buying more expensive BD discs (compared to DVD) after watching Talladega Nights?

I dont understand why you make it out that low balling / subsidizing is a bad thing for HD DVD but a good thing when done by PS3/BR. Hopefully the format with the best PQ/AQ wins and not neccessarily the format with the best marketing scheme

It's all good for consumers pricewise. When was the last time you had the opportunity to buy cutting edge technology below cost ??

PQ/AQ is strictly in the domain and control of the studios. The only real difference between the two formats is storage space and bandwidth, which BD has the edge there.

b2b

It's all good for consumers pricewise. When was the last time you had the opportunity to buy cutting edge technology below cost ??

PQ/AQ is strictly in the domain and control of the studios. The only real difference between the two formats is storage space and bandwidth, which BD has the edge there.

b2b

So far I've only seen 3 full length BR titles (Underworld, Eight Below & SWAT). Underworld looked good but I was unimpressed with the other two. So yes PQ is very important to me and I want to see the same level of awe as when I have watched some of the best HD DVDs. So far I havent seen any superior PQ in BR so the extra space and bandwidth means very little to me at this point.

Bad analogy b2b. The first disc (and poor example of BD) is free and in the box. They'll have to pay for additional content. What if they look at that disc and say, "you know, this isn't so much better than my DVD player." Worse yet, better hope little Billy (with a PS3) doesn't visit little Johny with a 360 w/ add-on and watches King Kong.

Back to all of those millions of PS3 players in everyones homes. What percentage do you think will start buying more expensive BD discs (compared to DVD) after watching Talladega Nights?

First off I don't get this whole PQ thing, saying that KK looks better than Tallagega. It's supposed to look better, it looked better in the theaters. One is a heavy duty CGI fantasy film and the other is a more natural real life setting. They are two different films, two different styles. How funny would a T-Rex look running around the race track ?

Percentage to start buying ?? Who knows.. but it is 100% better than if they didn't have the capability, which would be 0%. Maybe they would choose to rent the BD disc from Netflix instead of DVD or impulse buy the latest disc they see walking through Walmart or Best Buy. They are targeting the best demographic they can find and are supplying BD movie playback as a EUI (every unit item).

b2b

PQ and AQ are a wash between the two formats on a high end, if not reference level, setup, as I had demonstrated at a local AVS Forum meet (ISF calibrated Qualia 004 projector to a 133" screen with a Pioneer Elite 7.1 in a dedicated acoustically prepared home theater with both the Panny BD and Tosh HD-DVD). The pricing difference between the two isn't even relevent on the scale of the pricing of the rest of that equipment, either, just as it isn't really relevent considering the lowest common denominator of PS3 versus 360/A1/A2. Any time one of us thought we saw some artifact or something in one format, we went to the exact same scene on the other format and saw the same thing there.

A bad master or bad encode is an entirely different enchilada. The Tier threads for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray releases show plenty of good and bad releases for both.

The only remaining factor is the content available. Right now they're close, but if an enthusiast wants Black Hawk Down or Kingdom of Heaven they can't get that from HD-DVD, just as if they wanted King Kong or Serenity, Blu-ray can't satisfy them. Unfortunately for the HD-DVD side, they've been steadily losing ground in the software side and things are just about at parity and eventually they simply won't have enough titles to offer to maintain that unless they can crack Disney, Lion's Gate, or Fox.

That's the point of the PS3... it doesn't look like a game console. :)

b2b Just to play a Blu-ray disc on it through the media menus and the remote makes the interface the WAF from hell.

Its tough enough explaining a regular remote to your better half.

At least the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player comes with a remote with labeled buttons.

An attack post? That was an attack post? You must be a very sensitive person. ;) I thought it was a very accurate description of the combo. He was even nice enough to not mention the noise level from the two units. In fact, how anyone aestetically prefers two units over one, totally escapes me. "Cute"? I mean, really?... Oh, you misunderstood me. :)

I didn't take it as a personal attack. As a matter of fact, I liked B2's comment, and I was glad he posted it. Snarky and full of wit, but I thought it was appropriate.

I just took it as a "attack" post as a descriptive device, like meaning an attack or defensive tactical maneuver in a military sense or an attack ad in a political campaign, as his comment was a attacking a possible perceived weakness in the HD DVD format. It was attacking a possible weakness.

I didn't consider a personal attack on me at all. I actually liked it, although I disagreed with it. I'm a big boy now, and I don't get offended that easily.

PQ and AQ are a wash between the two formats on a high end, if not reference level, setup, as I had demonstrated at a local AVS Forum meet (ISF calibrated Qualia 004 projector to a 133" screen with a Pioneer Elite 7.1 in a dedicated acoustically prepared home theater with both the Panny BD and Tosh HD-DVD). The pricing difference between the two isn't even relevent on the scale of the pricing of the rest of that equipment, either, just as it isn't really relevent considering the lowest common denominator of PS3 versus 360/A1/A2. Any time one of us thought we saw some artifact or something in one format, we went to the exact same scene on the other format and saw the same thing there.

A bad master or bad encode is an entirely different enchilada. The Tier threads for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray releases show plenty of good and bad releases for both.

The only remaining factor is the content available. Right now they're close, but if an enthusiast wants Black Hawk Down or Kingdom of Heaven they can't get that from HD-DVD, just as if they wanted King Kong or Serenity, Blu-ray can't satisfy them. Unfortunately for the HD-DVD side, they've been steadily losing ground in the software side and things are just about at parity and eventually they simply won't have enough titles to offer to maintain that unless they can crack Disney, Lion's Gate, or Fox.

Thanks for the feedback. I agree, content will be critical. In the end it comes down to disc sales and revenue. This is where the rubber meets the road. Does anyone have any stats on disc sales between the two formats? I've seen the DVD wars site, but I'm interested in actual sales numbers.

Just to play a Blu-ray disc on it through the media menus and the remote makes the interface the WAF from hell.

Its tough enough explaining a regular remote to your better half.

At least the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player comes with a remote with labeled buttons.

You're all confused...

She is the Minister of Decoration and Style and all decisions are beyond appeal.
You are the Minister of Gadgets and all responsibilities of correct operation is your job (including stopped up toilets)..

:)

b2b

500,000 of the first PS3s are going to have a BD movie right in the box, right at the fingertips of each and everyone of those people who own a PS3.

I asked the DTV Tivo guy to make a guess what percentage of those PS3 owners would take the time to pop that BD disc into the box and give it a try. I estimated that at least >90% would do that.

The reply I got back was silence. Why ?? The shear numbers of PS3 are going to put more BD players in homes more than any amount of low ball pricing that HD-DVD could ever afford to do. It's hard to beat "free and in the box". Ask Netscape how that turned out against Explorer... ;)

b2b Well ask me or do a google search on consumer rebate redemption rates. If you do any consumer behavior research, its amazing how a little complication can affect behavior even when free money is involved.

Little stuff like spending money to buy a component cable, using a game remote without labels or having to spend $30 on a media remote for DVD style ergonomics add up to affect usage rates. That's why I think Sony games division is seriously thinking their will be a large movie attach rate for the PS3. They just didn't try very hard to make it easy to be used as a DVD or Blu-ray player.

Why people won't redeem a $50 rebate because they need to buy a stamp and fill out a form a little obstacle can make a huge different in usage rates.

Even if the one black PS3 monolith looks cuter to her , she still won't use it. :rolleyes:

First off I don't get this whole PQ thing, saying that KK looks better than Tallagega. It's supposed to look better, it looked better in the theaters. One is a heavy duty CGI fantasy film and the other is a more natural real life setting. They are two different films, two different styles. How funny would a T-Rex look running around the race track ? ...b2b Thats the point. King Kong is a much better HD movie to include with the initial package than Talladega Nights.

Microsoft made a much better decision here than Sony. It choose a movie that highlights the potential of the format, even the name is cooler KING KONG vs talladega nights . One reinforces the wow thats cool factor, the other kinda says what's so different about this.

One is a better choice for a free movie to showcase the format. HD DVD will probably sell more movies because of that choice. Blu-ray probably will not.

You're all confused...

She is the Minister of Decoration and Style and all decisions are beyond appeal.
You are the Minister of Gadgets and all responsibilities of correct operation is your job (including stopped up toilets)..

:)

b2b LOL

Agreed, although thats another point in that the PS3 is more a gadget than a consumer device and its the lowest priced Blu-ray player out there and probably will be for all of next year. It will be tough for that gadget to sell a lot of movies.

It seems that the scaler issue on the PS3 impacts BD playback as well.

The same problem seems to haunt the PS3 when scaling Blue-ray movies, according to Arstechnica which states: "If you don't have a set that does 1080i or 1080p, you're going to be forced into 480p which is far less impressive. PS3's lack of a scaler bites it again. 720p output is not available on the titles we tested".

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35983

The same problem seems to haunt the PS3 when scaling Blue-ray movies, according to Arstechnica which states: "If you don't have a set that does 1080i or 1080p, you're going to be forced into 480p which is far less impressive. PS3's lack of a scaler bites it again. 720p output is not available on the titles we tested".

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35983

So, what HDTVs don't accept 1080i ?

Unfortunately for the HD-DVD side, they've been steadily losing ground in the software side and things are just about at parity and eventually they simply won't have enough titles to offer to maintain that unless they can crack Disney, Lion's Gate, or Fox.

On paper what you say makes sense, but from the format uniqueness charts, it doesn't look like that.

TOTAL COUNT / Format Unique Count / Unique to Total Count ratio (%)

HD-DVD released = 121 / 79 / 65.3%
Blu-ray released = 107 / 66 / 61.7%

HD-DVD total = 155 / 105 / 67.7%
Blu-ray total = 132 / 83 / 62.9%

So, what HDTVs don't accept 1080i ?


oh man, don't you remember the endless discussions/complaints about the G1 Tosh players and their subpar ability to scale to 720p output?

on another topic, ISO images dumped from PS3 Blu-ray discs via Linux (http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/27/iso-images-dumped-from-ps3-blu-ray-discs-via-linux/)

oh man, don't you remember the endless discussions/complaints about the G1 Tosh players and their subpar ability to scale to 720p output?

I do. But, I'm curious which HDTVs don't take 1080i input at all (may not be the best input for a lot of 720p TVs ... still).

I think the BD camp is starting to operate on blind faith

First, do you really believe that Sony cannot manufacture the PS3's in the quantity they originally promised, or is it not more likely that they cannot afford to sell the PS3's and absorb the red ink that these quantities would generate


Second, Microsoft has 10 million xbox 360's out there, the ones with hard drives can sample HD with the down load system, and the studios now have two ways to sell HD content, once on a rental, second time on a HDDVD

If Microsoft got 10 percent of the base to buy the upgrade, they would have 1 million hd dvd units out there. We have also seen the tech solutions to running the HD DVD drive on a pc making progress, my guess is just about march time frame we will see full support for the drive on PC's easily increasing sales substantially, and with an extension of promotions etc a solution that will easily remain in the sub 200 dollar range.

Microsoft is very clever at marketing, and it would be hard to not give Sony low marks for the entire PS3 Marketing roll out campaign. It would not be out of the question to see Microsoft make another major move just about the time Sony tries to get PS3 ramping up to higher sales levels. It is still interesting to see that Sony had to drop prices in Japan, and the weak dollar is going to continue to put pressure on Sony's margins. Microsoft/TOSHIBA needs to get the drive production rate up to a higher level but this is a far less expensive problem than getting the entire ps3 levels up and costs down.

In addition Sony has basically lost the Holiday season, the people really making money will be the scalpers on EBAY, in addition if you look at the likely consumer scenario we are likely to seen continued price sensitivity, and weak high margin retail Sales.

The massive price underwriting for the PS3 is likely to keep the rest of the Ce companies with only luke warm support until the basic cost structure gets dramatically reduced. TOSHIBA on the other hand will be able to benefit from the volumes of HD DVD drives from the Xbox 360 program, and will continue to be far more price competative, with a likely hood of seeing 250 dollar HD DVD standalone players in 2007. Sony on the other hand wants the PS3 to be the lowest cost solution, but at the same time cannot afford a 250 dollar price point.

Sony's and the Studio's gamble was all based on a market approach that did not include Microsoft, It was based on a TOSHIBA VS SONY model, that did not take into consideration Microsoft's codec ability, willingness to underwrite an upgrade for the Xbox 360, and a likely ability to drive HD DVD penetration in the PC marketplace. On top of all this Sony was not anticipating the Li ION battery problems and those costs.

At this point Sony's strong point is the studios, but that support is not absolute, and ultimately the studios are interested in selling the most copies of their content, no matter what format that is. Initially Sony's pitch was a no brainer, but that view is hard to sustain today. If HD DVD and the Microsoft HD rental continues to out sell BD, we will start to see the exclusivity erode.

We may very well be beginning the end game, but it is Sony that is looking weaker all the time. Sir Howard knows full well that his tenure at the helm is tied to maintaining profitability, and that there is just so much underwriting that he can afford. He is an outsider, blame can easily be placed on him, allowing many more of the insiders to save face.

I would tend to believe money transcends all that.Given enough money that is true.


Warner has been satisfied with their expectations of HD DVD sales. I would think so is Universal. It would seem to me that if Fox is sitting on stock of Blu-ray titles while watching other studios successfully selling HD DVD stock, at some point Fox is going to want to get in on that.That assumes a lot including the idea that releasing on HD DVD is profitable at the moment. Based on current volume that is unlikely and I believe it is the potential that is causing studios to release on the two HD formats and not the current user base. And to be clear about this at the moment that goes for both HD formats.


At some point, I would think even Fox would decide money is more important than hanging onto a format exclusive because it's more secure, if in fact it is.Sure, but that is based on the assumption that HD DVD will someday have enough of a user base for that to occur.


Price was my determination, and I was able to exercise my "rights" as a consumer. That's all I am asking for.Okay, but at the end of the day it is the studios who get to decide which video format(s) to support since that is their right. No offense but some HD DVD supporters act as though the studios are obligated to support HD DVD simply because they bought into it.


I wonder if part of their alliance to HD DVD is a deal of some sort with Microsoft on authoring tools?HDi is part of HD DVD and no studio who releases on HD DVD could avoid it if they wanted interactivity better than DVD. As such I don't think that is the reason that Universal does not support Blu-ray.

I think the BD camp is starting to operate on blind faith

First, do you really believe that Sony cannot manufacture the PS3's in the quantity they originally promised, or is it not more likely that they cannot afford to sell the PS3's and absorb the red ink that these quantities would generate


Second, Microsoft has 10 million xbox 360's out there, the ones with hard drives can sample HD with the down load system, and the studios now have two ways to sell HD content, once on a rental, second time on a HDDVD

If Microsoft got 10 percent of the base to buy the upgrade, they would have 1 million hd dvd units out there. We have also seen the tech solutions to running the HD DVD drive on a pc making progress, my guess is just about march time frame we will see full support for the drive on PC's easily increasing sales substantially, and with an extension of promotions etc a solution that will easily remain in the sub 200 dollar range.

Microsoft is very clever at marketing, and it would be hard to not give Sony low marks for the entire PS3 Marketing roll out campaign. It would not be out of the question to see Microsoft make another major move just about the time Sony tries to get PS3 ramping up to higher sales levels. It is still interesting to see that Sony had to drop prices in Japan, and the weak dollar is going to continue to put pressure on Sony's margins. Microsoft/TOSHIBA needs to get the drive production rate up to a higher level but this is a far less expensive problem than getting the entire ps3 levels up and costs down.

In addition Sony has basically lost the Holiday season, the people really making money will be the scalpers on EBAY, in addition if you look at the likely consumer scenario we are likely to seen continued price sensitivity, and weak high margin retail Sales.

The massive price underwriting for the PS3 is likely to keep the rest of the Ce companies with only luke warm support until the basic cost structure gets dramatically reduced. TOSHIBA on the other hand will be able to benefit from the volumes of HD DVD drives from the Xbox 360 program, and will continue to be far more price competative, with a likely hood of seeing 250 dollar HD DVD standalone players in 2007. Sony on the other hand wants the PS3 to be the lowest cost solution, but at the same time cannot afford a 250 dollar price point.

Sony's and the Studio's gamble was all based on a market approach that did not include Microsoft, It was based on a TOSHIBA VS SONY model, that did not take into consideration Microsoft's codec ability, willingness to underwrite an upgrade for the Xbox 360, and a likely ability to drive HD DVD penetration in the PC marketplace. On top of all this Sony was not anticipating the Li ION battery problems and those costs.

At this point Sony's strong point is the studios, but that support is not absolute, and ultimately the studios are interested in selling the most copies of their content, no matter what format that is. Initially Sony's pitch was a no brainer, but that view is hard to sustain today. If HD DVD and the Microsoft HD rental continues to out sell BD, we will start to see the exclusivity erode.

We may very well be beginning the end game, but it is Sony that is looking weaker all the time. Sir Howard knows full well that his tenure at the helm is tied to maintaining profitability, and that there is just so much underwriting that he can afford. He is an outsider, blame can easily be placed on him, allowing many more of the insiders to save face.

Sony missed the season ?? Umm.. it's Toshiba that is missing Santa sleigh with the A2... :rolleyes:

Always with the shovels and "tales from the crypt" waiting to bury BD. Knock, knock... hello.. it's HD-DVD with no players, 1 USB addon drive and 3 studios for the 2006 holiday season.

b2b

I think the BD camp is starting to operate on blind faithMost of the studios and CE companies support Blu-ray so your casting a very wide net with that statement.


Second, Microsoft has 10 million xbox 360's out there, the ones with hard drives can sample HD with the down load system, and the studios now have two ways to sell HD content, once on a rental, second time on a HDDVDThat 10 million figure was a prediction made this spring by Microsoft and the current worldwide sales of the Xbox 360 is around 6 million.


TOSHIBA on the other hand will be able to benefit from the volumes of HD DVD drives from the Xbox 360 program, and will continue to be far more price competative, with a likely hood of seeing 250 dollar HD DVD standalone players in 2007.Do you really believe that Toshiba will sell a $250 HD DVD player next year? Also how many CE companies do you think will make HD DVD players next year?

I think that's what the CE companies are afraid of.. ;) What's the point of trading one dead-end product class for another dead-end.

b2b


Bluray and HD-DVD are guaranteed to become commoditized when the Chinese crank up their manufacturing machinery. ;) It's all a part of the 'race to the bottom', that the Walmart throngs have demanded. The whole question is how quickly it will happen.

Thats the point. King Kong is a much better HD movie to include with the initial package than Talladega Nights.

Microsoft made a much better decision here than Sony. It choose a movie that highlights the potential of the format, even the name is cooler KING KONG vs talladega nights . One reinforces the wow thats cool factor, the other kinda says what's so different about this.

One is a better choice for a free movie to showcase the format. HD DVD will probably sell more movies because of that choice. Blu-ray probably will not.

How about the "cool factor" of actually getting a top ten movie in HD almost a month before it hits the shelves for DVD ?? What a novel idea. Maybe it will start a trend. People who spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars on new HD equipment get to see new movies before the people with $50 dollar DVD players and a 19" TV... ;)

b2b

That's the point of the PS3... it doesn't look like a game console. :)

b2b


You're right b2b, it doesn't look like a game console. :p

http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/2223/ps3grillteasenn1.th.jpg (http://img83.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ps3grillteasenn1.jpg)


Seriously though, not that it matters to the discussion, I like the 'look' of the PS3 and 360. :)

Most of the studios and CE companies support Blu-ray so your casting a very wide net with that statement.


That 10 million figure was a prediction made this spring by Microsoft and the current worldwide sales of the Xbox 360 is around 6 million.


Do you really believe that Toshiba will sell a $250 HD DVD player next year? Also how many CE companies do you think will make HD DVD players next year?

The Studios made their choice early in the game, the decision factors are totally different today. Sony made a series of predictions that they have simply not been able to meet.

So even if we take the 6 million, 10 percent of the base is still 600 thousand units, and is it unrealistic to expect that Microsoft is not going to sell more units? how many are they likely to sell by the end of the year, It will be interesting to see how close they come to the 10 million, at the same time Sony is at 500 thousand.

I do think we will see a HD 250 dollar player next year, Getting the drive volumes based on Xbox 360 addons and PC sales will make it possible. With a PS3 at 600 dollars even if we have Ce companies with BD players, the pricing and the marketing is likely to be less than significant. I don't see any of the BD ce manufacturers stepping up to underwrite the pricing, and Sony has staked their position with PS3. Toshiba sees the opportunity, and the price point and has the royalty stream potential to underwrite the price point.

The Studios made their choice early in the game, the decision factors are totally different today. Sony made a series of predictions that they have simply not been able to meet.

So even if we take the 6 million, 10 percent of the base is still 600 thousand units, and is it unrealistic to expect that Microsoft is not going to sell more units? how many are they likely to sell by the end of the year, It will be interesting to see how close they come to the 10 million, at the same time Sony is at 500 thousand.

I do think we will see a HD 250 dollar player next year, Getting the drive volumes based on Xbox 360 addons and PC sales will make it possible. With a PS3 at 600 dollars even if we have Ce companies with BD players, the pricing and the marketing is likely to be less than significant. I don't see any of the BD ce manufacturers stepping up to underwrite the pricing, and Sony has staked their position with PS3. Toshiba sees the opportunity, and the price point and has the royalty stream potential to underwrite the price point.

So they are going to make billions writing royalty checks to themselves ?? ;)

b2b

Sony missed the season ?? Umm.. it's Toshiba that is missing Santa sleigh with the A2... :rolleyes:

Always with the shovels and "tales from the crypt" waiting to bury BD. Knock, knock... hello.. it's HD-DVD with no players, 1 USB addon drive and 3 studios for the 2006 holiday season.

b2b


This is a chess game, TOSHIBA sees the major push in BD is with the PS3, the stand alone player market is minimal, so why would they not support the X box 360 push, get the drive volumes up, so the cost of the players can be brought down. The more pressure they put on Sony with the product that is racking up the losses the more effective the marketing program is. Right now the least expensive solution is to add on the HD DVD drive to the Xbox 360, with a significant installed base. Why slug it out in the Player market, do you go after the 100 thousand unit market or the multi million unit market?

The Studios made their choice early in the game, the decision factors are totally different today. Sony made a series of predictions that they have simply not been able to meet.

So even if we take the 6 million, 10 percent of the base is still 600 thousand units, and is it unrealistic to expect that Microsoft is not going to sell more units? how many are they likely to sell by the end of the year, It will be interesting to see how close they come to the 10 million, at the same time Sony is at 500 thousand.

I do think we will see a HD 250 dollar player next year, Getting the drive volumes based on Xbox 360 addons and PC sales will make it possible. With a PS3 at 600 dollars even if we have Ce companies with BD players, the pricing and the marketing is likely to be less than significant. I don't see any of the BD ce manufacturers stepping up to underwrite the pricing, and Sony has staked their position with PS3. Toshiba sees the opportunity, and the price point and has the royalty stream potential to underwrite the price point.


With the shortage of PS3's and the possibility of 360 bundles, I wouldn't be suprised to see Microsoft sell roughly 1.5 million 360's worldwide this holiday season.

You're right b2b, it doesn't look like a game console. :p

http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/2223/ps3grillteasenn1.th.jpg (http://img83.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ps3grillteasenn1.jpg)


Seriously though, not that it matters to the discussion, I like the 'look' of the PS3 and 360. :)

The the 360 is a handy appliance too... Rumor has it there is another "Addon" in the works.. ;)

b2b

“I worry a little bit” about supplies of the HD DVD player
Blue laser diodes - who would have thought they would play a pivotal role?

There are two things. Blue lasers definitely, but also the ramp up. You don't want to build a huge 1M/month capacity if in the long run you only expect 100K/month sales (numbers just for eg.).

This is a chess game, TOSHIBA sees the major push in BD is with the PS3, the stand alone player market is minimal, so why would they not support the X box 360 push, get the drive volumes up, so the cost of the players can be brought down. The more pressure they put on Sony with the product that is racking up the losses the more effective the marketing program is. Right now the least expensive solution is to add on the HD DVD drive to the Xbox 360, with a significant installed base. Why slug it out in the Player market, do you go after the 100 thousand unit market or the multi million unit market?

Well it's more like a "one-legged man in a arse kicking contest"... :)

b2b

note: My father-in-law, God rest him, only had one leg and was the one that told me of the expression.

I see, so what happens if HD DVD "wins". Are you ready or willing to drop your Blu-ray equipment and re-invest another $500-$1000 in an HD DVD player?


Michael Mullis: obviously, who here wouldn’t buy the other format (if they have not already)? If HD DVD were to stop tomorrow would you go back to DVD and be happy? There is a reason we spent money to be early adopters, we wanted something better.Why would not want it a bit latter?



Millions? Well, then both formats are screwed, aren't they?

Well thre will be over a miilion BD players by the end of the year :)


Warner BTW announced a little earlier this year they were pleased that their HD DVD movies sales "met or exceeded expectations". Sounds like they were doing just fine. So are they losing money on Blu-ray? So.......shouldn't HD DVD win then?

No, they announced they were recalculating the next month. They said pleased in June/July. They assumed the big bleep was a push up in sales but what it was was a bleep due to some HD DVDers doing the “I will buy now that BD is starting to show HD DVD is better)


Anthony, there is also a WHOLE LOT more than goes into the process of making a video game than it is to transfer and press a movie disc. Development costs of some video games rival the costs of a low-budget movie. So of course they are going to charge more for the game.
So you don’t need to shoot a movie? Like you said development of some of the more expensive games rivals low budget movies. Movies will make some of it back in theatres but also in Disks. Why do you limit movies to replication costs and mastering costs and not games as well?



So, if companies are losing $3 a title, then why are they making them in the first place? You would think critical mass would equal more losses, and run themselves out of business by video sales.

a) there are fixed costs and variable costs. When you produce a few fixed cost is more important, when you produce a lot fixed cost is less important.
b) Studios want us to move away from DVD. HD is the carrot on the stick, DVD is cracked and anyone can make a copy, people that make copies or buy/dl illegal copies don’t produce revenue for the studios. HD DVD/BD is all about plugging the crack.

Second batch? What happened to 100,000 PS3s per week, for a total of four? (no), two? (no), one million by end of calendar year?

Mike considering there has already been a second batch and from what I hears a third batch coming this week that article was quite funny

That assumes a lot including the idea that releasing on HD DVD is profitable at the moment. Based on current volume that is unlikely and I believe it is the potential that is causing studios to release on the two HD formats and not the current user base. And to be clear about this at the moment that goes for both HD formats.

I am starting to read things about that. Earlier in the year Warner said that HD DVD sales were meeting or exceeding their expectations. They just recently reprojected their 4th quarter earnings down on both formats.


Sure, but that is based on the assumption that HD DVD will someday have enough of a user base for that to occur.

That it is. Just as Fox's sticking exclusive would be based on an assumption that Blu-ray would have a user base that could sustain it's movie sales. Unfortunately as we're starting to see, it's a harder sell for the HD format as a whole right now.


Okay, but at the end of the day it is the studios who get to decide which video format(s) to support since that is their right. No offense but some HD DVD supporters act as though the studios are obligated to support HD DVD simply because they bought into it.

And at the end of the day it's my money that the studios get in sales for their movies. Money I don't have to give them if I don't want. Whether or not a studio decides what it wants to do, it's still economics that drives them. If they want my money, they'll have to decide to support my format.

They might not be "obligated", but they do have to pay attention. Again, I spent no money on Fox Blu-ray movies, and now well over $150 in the span of 2-3 weeks on Warner HD DVD's. The economics of it are pretty cut and dry.


HDi is part of HD DVD and no studio who releases on HD DVD could avoid it if they wanted interactivity better than DVD. As such I don't think that is the reason that Universal does not support Blu-ray.[/QUOTE]

But it's there, and it's not something you see on your standard DVD player.


Michael Mullis: 20$ DVD players, mabe not, but many DVD players have them

Michael Mullis: obviously, who here wouldn’t buy the other format (if they have not already)? If HD DVD were to stop tomorrow would you go back to DVD and be happy? There is a reason we spent money to be early adopters, we wanted something better.Why would not want it a bit latter?

Anthonyp: If HD DVD stopped tomorrow, I would go back to DVD until Blu-ray became affordable. I'm sorry my friend, but you can't compete with $200. You just can't.


Well thre will be over a miilion BD players by the end of the year :)

If you really think so Anthony. If you really think so.


No, they announced they were recalculating the next month. They said pleased in June/July. They assumed the big bleep was a push up in sales but what it was was a bleep due to some HD DVDers doing the “I will buy now that BD is starting to show HD DVD is better)

Or perhaps the fact that people bought into HD DVD and started buying their movies. Paramount announced that Mission Impossible brought in record HD DVD and Blu-ray sales for them. Yes, they are re-calcing their numbers. But so is the entire retail industry on BOTH formats.


So you don’t need to shoot a movie? Like you said development of some of the more expensive games rivals low budget movies. Movies will make some of it back in theatres but also in Disks. Why do you limit movies to replication costs and mastering costs and not games as well?

Because video games go from development to shelf with nothing inbetween. They don't have a theatre box office to recoup dev costs to before going on the shelf at the store. I also happen to know roughly about what it costs to press a game disc. Because I have debug units, we deal a lot in builds.

It is two wholly different things, and it happens to be something I know more about than you might think.

And at the end of the day it's my money that the studios get in sales for their movies. Money I don't have to give them if I don't want. Whether or not a studio decides what it wants to do, it's still economics that drives them. If they want my money, they'll have to decide to support my format.

They might not be "obligated", but they do have to pay attention. Again, I spent no money on Fox Blu-ray movies, and now well over $150 in the span of 2-3 weeks on Warner HD DVD's. The economics of it are pretty cut and dry.
Alternate scenario...what if it still is economics that drives them, but it isn't the format of your choice? This could happen more way than one as well. Are you prepared to go down with the ship? Because I'm not prepared to go down with either ship at this point.

Looks Like the NME of HD DVD and Blu-Ray is back! but does anyone care? :confused:

Home Media Retailing (http://www.homemediaretailing.com/index.cfm?sec_id=2)

New Medium Enterprises, a London-based technology company incorporated in the state of Nevada, Nov. 27 announced a list of Hollywood movies it claims will be released in January 2007 in Germany in HD VMD, a low cost high-definition optical disc format.

The titles include Hostage (Miramax), Wu-Jii: The Promise (Warner Home Video), Reefer Madness and Paparazzi (20th Century Fox Home Entertainment), Sleepy Hollow (Paramount Home Entertainment), Gospel of John Descent (Buena Vista Home Entertainment), Hitters (Hanover House), Shockwave (released in the U.S. as The Arrival) from Lionsgate, and Island of Beasts.

The movies are part of a previously announced deal between NME and German distributor VCL, whose 800-film library will be released in the new format.

NME also plans to release movies from India and China in HD VMD, which it claims is “the only affordable HD format.”

Anthonyp: If HD DVD stopped tomorrow, I would go back to DVD until Blu-ray became affordable. I'm sorry my friend, but you can't compete with $200. You just can't.

I (like I am sure most here) consider it the cost of our addiction. Maybe that is why you are defending HD DVD beyond reason, the add-on made it possible to be an early adopter but you can't really afford it.

Or perhaps the fact that people bought into HD DVD and started buying their movies. Paramount announced that Mission Impossible brought in record HD DVD and Blu-ray sales for them. Yes, they are re-calcing their numbers. But so is the entire retail industry on BOTH formats.

yes, the biggest selling movie in HD, and what was it? 20k BD and HD DVD combined, that was the record it set.

Anthonyp: If HD DVD stopped tomorrow, I would go back to DVD until Blu-ray became affordable. I'm sorry my friend, but you can't compete with $200. You just can't.


Hmm.. I forgot, how many CE companies are lining up to build HD-DVD MS-DVD players ?? ;)

b2b

The Studios made their choice early in the game, the decision factors are totally different today.I certainly can't argue against a statement that vague since factors certainly have changed since the studios originally decided on which format(s) to support.


So even if we take the 6 million, 10 percent of the base is still 600 thousand units, and is it unrealistic to expect that Microsoft is not going to sell more units?Well I certainly do expect that Microsoft will sell more Xbox 360 consoles and your 10% estimate for the HD DVD add-on is technically possible especially since you don't give any date for it. Still does anyone actually know how many HD DVD add-ons Microsoft is going to release this year?


With a PS3 at 600 dollars even if we have Ce companies with BD players, the pricing and the marketing is likely to be less than significant. I don't see any of the BD ce manufacturers stepping up to underwrite the pricing, and Sony has staked their position with PS3. Toshiba sees the opportunity, and the price point and has the royalty stream potential to underwrite the price point.It was good to see that you agreed that there would be more CE manufacturers making Blu-ray players than HD DVD players, which to be blunt is very likely. Personally I think there are limits to how far Toshiba can carry the stand alone HD DVD market and it will be very interesting to see what other CE companies will support HD DVD in 2007.

I am starting to read things about that. Earlier in the year Warner said that HD DVD sales were meeting or exceeding their expectations. They just recently reprojected their 4th quarter earnings down on both formats.That doesn't mean much without more information and that certainly doesn't indicate that releasing on HD DVD is profitable at the moment.


Whether or not a studio decides what it wants to do, it's still economics that drives them. If they want my money, they'll have to decide to support my format.Sure, and if there is enough economic reason for a studio to do that they will.


I (like I am sure most here) consider it the cost of our addiction. Maybe that is why you are defending HD DVD beyond reason, the add-on made it possible to be an early adopter but you can't really afford it.Anthony, I don't think that is really fair since though the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360 does have a few limitations it does make a good amount of sense for those interested in HD DVD and who own an Xbox 360.

He can't prove it. He makes an absolute statement predicated on a future time frame. Unless he's got a red phone on his desk that God calls, his sig remains nothing more than an opinion.So Steve, are you saying that in fact there aren't more Blu-ray players on the market today than HD-DVD players?

Let's look at the available data:

Blu-ray:
90K PS3 sales in Japan
A bare minimum of 125K PS3 sales in North America
20K standalone sales (more-or-less)
Unknown number of PS3 sales since the initial launch
HD-DVD:
70K Toshiba A1/XA1 sales (more-or-less)
Unknown number of HD-DVD Xbox add-on sales

So we reasonably know there are at least 235K BD players in the market. We can assume there is some unknown number of additional units in the market representing actual PS3 launch shipments above 125K (some analysts say it was 200K+) plus however many more many additional PS3's have been shipped since launch weekend.

For HD-DVD we reasonably know there are 70K players in the market, plus a completely unknown number of HD-DVD Xbox add-on units. It could be a few tens of thousand or less, or it could be 100K or more. I say it's less, but there hasn't been a single estimate or report, which argues that the number isn't hugely impressive or Microsoft would have provided that information to add momentum.

If you have any background in logic whatsoever you would have to agree that it's very, very likely that my signature is currently correct. With regards to whether it will forever remain so, of course it's my opinion, but the number of PS3's alone projected to be sold will almost certainly be higher than all HD-DVD player sales for years to come, assuming HD-DVD survives.
When I called Talk on this in the HD DVD VI thread, he opted to not respond.No, the thread was closed two hours after you posted and before I saw your post. If Blu-ray dies and HD-DVD survives you're welcome to design my signature for thirty days, as long as it's within the bounds of AVSForum etiquette.

- Talk

on another topic, ISO images dumped from PS3 Blu-ray discs via Linux (http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/27/iso-images-dumped-from-ps3-blu-ray-discs-via-linux/)What do you think this means? In case you haven't noticed, you can copy the images off your HD-DVD and legacy DVD discs as well, but you can't do anything with them unless you have a program which can decrypt the data. No one has attempted to prevent copying data from a Bu-ray disc (whether PS3 or BD-Video). The data is encrypted, all copying it to a hard drive accomplishes is wasting space on your hard drive!

This is a chess game, TOSHIBA sees the major push in BD is with the PS3, the stand alone player market is minimal, so why would they not support the X box 360 push, get the drive volumes up, so the cost of the players can be brought down.Of course, since the Xbox HD-DVD add-on doesn't share many (any?) components with standalone players other than the drive itself, you only get economies of scale on the drive; it doesn't benefit other component costs.

I think the BD camp is starting to operate on blind faith. Far from it. No need for blind faith. We could say the same thing about the HD DVD camp. You believe studio support will come? You think more CE makers will come?

First, do you really believe that Sony cannot manufacture the PS3's in the quantity they originally promised, or is it not more likely that they cannot afford to sell the PS3's and absorb the red ink that these quantities would generate

Let me get this straight. You believe Sony is limiting the production on the PS3 to limit their losses? Seriously? Sony may be arrogant, but they are NOT stupid. Maybe you can explain why you think this?

What do you think this means? In case you haven't noticed, you can copy the images off your HD-DVD and legacy DVD discs as well, but you can't do anything with them unless you have a program which can decrypt the data. No one has attempted to prevent copying data from a Bu-ray disc (whether PS3 or BD-Video). The data is encrypted, all copying it to a hard drive accomplishes is wasting space on your hard drive!


it is the first step, you know that!

Well thre will be over a miilion BD players by the end of the year :)





Care to share your math for this projection?

Let me get this straight. You believe Sony is limiting the production on the PS3 to limit their losses? Seriously? Sony may be arrogant, but they are NOT stupid. Maybe you can explain why you think this?

I posted something similar recently.

Do the math for the original 2 million launch/4 million by end of year. Using the iSuppli estimates:

Cash outlay: 2M x $820/4M x $820 = $1.64 and $3.28 BILLION.
Loss: 2M * $240/4M * $240 = $480/$960 million.

At $240 loss a pop, that needs a 12-24 attach rate to recover for each unit ($10 - $20 per game). How many units could Sony release at that loss before the loss is unrecoverable?

Gary

Hmm.. I forgot, how many CE companies are lining up to build HD-DVD MS-DVD players ??

Well, just like with movie sales, if Blu-ray wants my money they'll make an affordable solution to it. It's just that simple.


I (like I am sure most here) consider it the cost of our addiction. Maybe that is why you are defending HD DVD beyond reason, the add-on made it possible to be an early adopter but you can't really afford it.

I'm sorry, exactly what does "beyond reason" mean? Is this yet another attack on HD DVD supporters. I could say the same thing about many Blu-ray supporters on this same forum you know.

And the "cost of my addiction" was $200. Besides the fact you made a very eliteist statement about your "cost of addiction", like it or not it is what it is. Marginalize it all you want.

I posted something similar recently.

Do the math for the original 2 million launch/4 million by end of year. Using the iSuppli estimates:

Cash outlay: 2M x $820/4M x $820 = $1.64 and $3.28 BILLION.
Loss: 2M * $240/4M * $240 = $480/$960 million.

At $240 loss a pop, that needs a 12-24 attach rate to recover for each unit ($10 - $20 per game). How many units could Sony release at that loss before the loss is unrecoverable?

Gary

An initial run rate of 6M per year would require a mfg. plant to build 16,438 units per day (a unit cycle time of 5.25 seconds). Sony is world class in electronic manufacturing, so they have as good a chance of bring down the costs rapidly as anyone. Sony has a lot of vertical integration with the CELL and producing their own blue lasers (which both can sold as a OEM products to other companies). Sony definitely is playing their cost cards close to the chest, but they have been doing this kind of work for years (like everyone has).

MS with the 360 is reportedly moved out of the red on build costs in just one year and they contract their work out, so they are paying for costs plus a profit margin for the contractors. If MS can do it so can Sony.

b2b

Sony's PlayStation 3 squares off with players from Panasonic and Samsung in a three-way true-Blu showdown.
(http://www.soundandvisionmag.com/hd-dvd-bluray/1927/shootout-3-blu-ray-disc-players.html)
^^
The PS3 is a giant killer and an absolute steal for the kind of machine that it is at $500-$600 MSRP.

Sony's PlayStation 3 squares off with players from Panasonic and Samsung in a three-way true-Blu showdown.
(http://www.soundandvisionmag.com/hd-dvd-bluray/1927/shootout-3-blu-ray-disc-players.html)
^^
The PS3 is a giant killer and an absolute steal for the kind of machine that it is at $500-$600 MSRP.

Selected quote:
BOTTOM LINE With its crisp 1080p Blu-ray Disc playback, flexible, wide-ranging audio options, and mounds of other network and gaming features, the Sony PlayStation 3 is nothing short of awesome. From my perspective, the only reason someone would buy a standalone Blu-ray player instead of a PS3 is a complete aversion to videogames — either that, or the desire for a more traditional A/V form factor (that also includes upconversion of standard-def DVDs). That said, Sony's PS3 game console is one of the most exciting, well-executed home theater products I've laid my hands on in a long time. Good luck finding one!

And that's just the tip of the iceberg... :)

b2b

So Steve, are you saying that in fact there aren't more Blu-ray players on the market today than HD-DVD players?


Today? No. That's why I took issue with the future absolute in your sig.



{many numbers snipped}

If you have any background in logic whatsoever you would have to agree that it's very, very likely that my signature is currently correct.

(emphasis mine)

Current_situation != permanent_future, no?.

Look, Beta had an early lead in The Video Tape Wars too, but to state that it had "permanently surpassed" VHS was: a) impossible to know, and b) ultimately untrue.


With regards to whether it will forever remain so, of course it's my opinion, but the number of PS3's alone projected to be sold will almost certainly be higher than all HD-DVD player sales for years to come, assuming HD-DVD survives.

(emphasis again mine)

But those phrases are at odds with something that you've qualifed as "permanent", no?


No, the thread was closed two hours after you posted and before I saw your post.


Eh?

My POST (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8909775&&#post8909775) to you regarding your sig: 11/15/06 9:57pm EST

markrubin's POST (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8933236&&#post8933236) ending the thread on 11/18/06 3:44PM EST

In that 2 days, 17 hours, and 47 minutes, not only did you chime in 6 more times, but I reminded you again (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8925604&&#post8925604) about your sig.



If Blu-ray dies and HD-DVD survives you're welcome to design my signature for thirty days, as long as it's within the bounds of AVSForum etiquette.

- Talk

Now we're Talkstr8tin'!

Are sigs exposing the amourous relationships of other forum members allowed? ;)

Selected quote:

From my perspective, the only reason someone would buy a standalone Blu-ray player instead of a PS3 is a complete aversion to videogames — either that, or the desire for a more traditional A/V form factor (that also includes upconversion of standard-def DVDs). So if people buy these PS3s to play BD movies on, how does Sony make back any of those gigantic losses? Will they raise the royalties on Blu Ray movies?

And if people are buying the PS3 for movie playback at highly subsidized prices, why on earth is Panasonic, Samsung and Pioneer even bothering to try to produce players? Just to cash the royalty checks from MPEG-LA? Or will they stay in high price "niche" and leave the mass market to Sony?

Today? No. That's why I took issue with the future absolute in your sig.



(emphasis mine)

Current_situation != permanent_future, no?.

Look, Beta had an early lead in The Video Tape Wars too, but to state that it had "permanently surpassed" VHS was: a) impossible to know, and b) ultimately untrue.


(emphasis again mine)

But those phrases are at odds with something that you've qualifed as "permanent", no?



Eh?

My POST (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8909775&&#post8909775) to you regarding your sig: 11/15/06 9:57pm EST

markrubin's POST (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8933236&&#post8933236) ending the thread on 11/18/06 3:44PM EST

In that 2 days, 17 hours, and 47 minutes, not only did you chime in 6 more times, but I reminded you again (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8925604&&#post8925604) about your sig.




Now we're Talkstr8tin'!

Are sigs exposing the amourous relationships of other forum members allowed? ;)

So whada we got here now, a sig war ???

Sigs I've seen...
Disclaimer : Strictly my personal views that do not necessarily reflect those of Microsoft, my employer .

Ever seen an empty trojan horse ?
I find it amusing, that BD fans call HDDVD fans"FANBOYS". the BD format has issues of their own!! Just say NO to COMBOS!
“The reviews are in and HD DVD is hands down the leader in picture quality, audio experiences and interactive capabilities that have never been seen before" - Craig Kornblau, president of Universal.
Gamertag: Napali06... Too funny...
Xbox Live Gamercard: StingerNLG (Click for my Xbox.com Profile)
HD-DVD Supporter
I now own both formats... but I refuse to drink the Blu KoolAid that makes fanatics delusional.
HD-DVD titles: 63
Blu-Ray titles: 5
i have great faith in fools -- self confidence my friends call it. -- edgar allan poe

And the point is.......??

b2b

So whada we got here now, a sig war ???

Sigs I've seen...









And the point is.......??

b2b

None of the others state an unknowable future as a certainty.

So if people buy these PS3s to play BD movies on, how does Sony make back any of those gigantic losses? Will they raise the royalties on Blu Ray movies?

And if people are buying the PS3 for movie playback at highly subsidized prices, why on earth is Panasonic, Samsung and Pioneer even bothering to try to produce players? Just to cash the royalty checks from MPEG-LA? Or will they stay in high price "niche" and leave the mass market to Sony?

1. If you buy a PS3 for movies, there is a good chance you will buy a game. If you buy a PS3 for games, there is a good chance you will buy a movie.

2. $500 dollars is plenty of room to build player at a profit for the next year (2007 holidays). $200 dollars isn't (ala 360 addon).

b2b

Today? No. That's why I took issue with the future absolute in your sig.
Current_situation != permanent_future, no?.


How/when do you see that situation ever changing in HD-DVD's favor with every major CE manufacturfer except Toshiba on the other side? 360 add-ons? Lite-on?

I expect Sony, Matsushita, Pioneer, and Samsung to be more than able to offset what any of the others could do. The 360 add-on and PS3 will consume the entiriety of the lower end market until costs come down. In which case dedicated units can also add multi-disc carousels and burner capability.

The high end snobs will most likely snub both in favor of things like analog outputs, nameplate (Pioneer Elite I'm looking at you and Denon/Marantz if they ever get in the game, etc), and UI idiosyncracies.

1. If you buy a PS3 for movies, there is a good chance you will buy a game. If you buy a PS3 for games, there is a good chance you will buy a movie. At a $240 loss (just on BOM, not including shipping, marketing, et. al.) you would have to buy a lot more than one game for Sony to break even on the sale.

2. $500 dollars is plenty of room to build player at a profit for the next year (2007 holidays). $200 dollars isn't (ala 360 addon). More b2b fuzzy math. :confused:

None of the others state an unknowable future as a certainty.

Well we used to get "insiders" saying that 50GB BD was "science fiction" and "in violation of the laws of physics", (they didn't put them in a sig though). So if he is wrong, then you can call him out as a blatant propagandist, much as the "science fiction" propagandists have been called out for their statements.. ;)

b2b

How/when do you see that situation ever changing in HD-DVD's favor with every major CE manufacturfer except Toshiba on the other side? 360 add-ons? Lite-on?

I expect Sony, Matsushita, Pioneer, and Samsung to be more than able to offset what any of the others could do. The 360 add-on and PS3 will consume the entiriety of the lower end market until costs come down. In which case dedicated units can also add multi-disc carousels and burner capability.

The high end snobs will most likely snub both in favor of things like analog outputs, nameplate (Pioneer Elite I'm looking at you and Denon/Marantz if they ever get in the game, etc), and UI idiosyncracies.

I'm not debating likliehoods. I'm debating the statement of unknowable absolutes.

Beta is the obvious example. It had clear advantages technical advantages. VHS had some practical advantages. If BR fails, then I can pretty much guarantee that BR will not have permanently suprassed HD DVD. But I don't know that, but the trick is...(wiat for it)...neither does Talk!

Talk has taken the postioin that he's here to present accurate information. Having a sig that talks about the future as if it's the past doesn't fit that mold, therefore I've called him on it.

What's more, he's risen to the challange, so I'm cool with that... not to mention it's more than I can say for other folks who avoided their own inconsistencies then they were challanged on them.

At a $240 loss (just on BOM, not including shipping, marketing, et. al.) you would have to buy a lot more than one game for Sony to break even on the sale.

More b2b fuzzy math. :confused:

I'm sorry that you are confused by simple math. Entry level is $200 for HD-DVD and $500 for BD. So if you want to compete in the HD-DVD.. sorry, MS-DVD space you have to do a player @ 200 dollars. For BD the entry level is $500 dollars, that leaves $300 dollars to work with (for profit).

b2b

Well we used to get "insiders" saying that 50GB BD was "science fiction" and "in violation of the laws of physics", (they didn't put them in a sig though). So if he is wrong, then you can call him out as a blatant propagandist, much as the "science fiction" propagandists have been called out for their statements.. ;)

b2b


No need to get your panties in a bunch... he's a big boy and is willing to back it up with a friendly wager.

I didn't have enough additional insight to call them on it. But when I do, I will. And the nature of how I do so depends largely on the original poster's posture: if he comes accross as "knowing more", then he deserves a higher level of scrutiny than the 14th newbie I just corrected about HDMI 1.3....

A Toshiba spokesman, said that "from an engineer's point of view, the Blu-ray is a masterpiece.."

It is also rumored that "from an artists point of view it its efficiently designed". ;)

- Tom

B2B, I challenge you to find an insider directly calling BD50 science fiction.

If you do not wish to waste your time, I can tell you it is not there. Only a few quotes of an insider quoting what another industry insider said followed by countless BD drones imploding.

B2B, I challenge you to find an insider directly calling BD50 science fiction.

If you do not wish to waste your time, I can tell you it is not there. Only a few quotes of an insider quoting what another industry insider said followed by countless BD drones imploding.

Amir has used that term numerous times in the past.....

The challenge stands.

I'm sorry that you are confused by simple math. Entry level is $200 for HD-DVD and $500 for BD. So if you want to compete in the HD-DVD.. sorry, MS-DVD space you have to do a player @ 200 dollars. For BD the entry level is $500 dollars, that leaves $300 dollars to work with (for profit).So entry level movie watching in the HD DVD space is $200? No 360 console to buy - just the add-on? I hope that BD CE manufacturers worked a little harder to determine their place in the BD scheme of things...

So entry level movie watching in the HD DVD space is $200? No 360 console to buy - just the add-on? I hope that BD CE manufacturers worked a little harder to determine their place in the BD scheme of things...

How much did you spend to start watching HD DVD

b2b

[moderator: please refer to it only as HD DVD]

The challenge stands.

Spreading FUD does not have to be "I hereby proclaim". Saying "my sources", "friends of mine", "replicators I know" etc. is just as bad. You're passing on unsubstantiated rumours to spread FUD. Especially bad when you are a respected source in the industry.

B2B, I challenge you to find an insider directly calling BD50 science fiction.

If you do not wish to waste your time, I can tell you it is not there. Only a few quotes of an insider quoting what another industry insider said followed by countless BD drones imploding.

Well it really doesn't matter, BD 50 has been amply proven to be "science fact" and whoever uttered the phrase "science fiction" as opinion or parroting the words of others has been proven to be more about FUD and spin than fact and reality.. ;)

b2b

I posted something similar recently.

Do the math for the original 2 million launch/4 million by end of year. Using the iSuppli estimates:

Cash outlay: 2M x $820/4M x $820 = $1.64 and $3.28 BILLION.
Loss: 2M * $240/4M * $240 = $480/$960 million.

At $240 loss a pop, that needs a 12-24 attach rate to recover for each unit ($10 - $20 per game). How many units could Sony release at that loss before the loss is unrecoverable?

Gary

They are no doubt hemmorhaging money. But Sony is not the only player in this game. As far as other CEs AND studios are concerned, the PS3 is vital in the battle for domination of the HD movie market (attach rates remain to be seen.) Should Sony suddenly limit production to limit their own losses, they are risking the very existince of Blu-ray, IMHO.

They are aiming for the same 100M number of sold units as the two previous generations, and over the consoles lifetime, with reduced cost and (planned) high volumes of sold games, they will make money. OK, so over 10 years it will only be 50 cents, but at least they ensured Blu-ray reigned supreme in the end (YMMV) :).

(And as was mentioned by B2B I think, we don't really know they are losing $240, it is the estimate of iSupply. I, for one, though the BOM was a bit on the high side for a few of the items, but then again, I'm no analyst. But then again the analyst probably does not have access to the pricing Sony is actually getting.)

What about continuously misquoting some one? Where's your and everyone else's moral standards on that?

Is anyone besides Sony pressing dual layer BD's yet? Is it not true there were a ton of delays and technical issues getting it out the door? So is it FUD when Amir says, hey I know a replicator who thinks it's science fiction, when said replicator probably still isn't making them yet today and the quote was made a year ago?

I think we should just drop the whole thing, but some how it keeps coming up and not by Amir or HD DVD mouth pieces. Where's the "FUD" in that? It seems the "FUD" in this story has morphed more into character assassination.

Has AVS made anyone else really hate the word FUD?

They are no doubt hemmorhaging money. But Sony is not the only player in this game. As far as other CEs AND studios are concerned, the PS3 is vital in the battle for domination of the HD movie market (attach rates remain to be seen.) Should Sony suddenly limit production to limit their own losses, they are risking the very existince of Blu-ray, IMHO.

They are aiming for the same 100M number of sold units as the two previous generations, and over the consoles lifetime, with reduced cost and (planned) high volumes of sold games, they will make money. OK, so over 10 years it will only be 50 cents, but at least they ensured Blu-ray reigned supreme in the end (YMMV) :).

(And as was mentioned by B2B I think, we don't really know they are losing $240, it is the estimate of iSupply. I, for one, though the BOM was a bit on the high side for a few of the items, but then again, I'm no analyst. But then again the analyst probably does not have access to the pricing Sony is actually getting.)

Who knows how much capital investment has been spent developing the piece parts for a PS3. My only estimate is the first PS3 off the line cost them 3 billion dollars to do it... ;)

b2b

What about continuously misquoting some one? Where's your and everyone else's moral standards on that?

Is anyone besides Sony pressing dual layer BD's yet? Is it not true there were a ton of delays and technical issues getting it out the door? So is it FUD when Amir says, hey I know a replicator who thinks it's science fiction, when said replicator probably still isn't making them yet today and the quote was made a year ago?

I think we should just drop the whole thing, but some how it keeps coming up and not by Amir or HD DVD mouth pieces. Where's the "FUD" in that? It seems the "FUD" in this story has morphed more into character assassination.

Has AVS made anyone else really hate the word FUD?
Preach it.

What about continuously misquoting some one? Where's your and everyone else's moral standards on that?

Is anyone besides Sony pressing dual layer BD's yet? Is it not true there were a ton of delays and technical issues getting it out the door? So is it FUD when Amir says, hey I know a replicator who thinks it's science fiction, when said replicator probably still isn't making them yet today and the quote was made a year ago?

I think we should just drop the whole thing, but some how it keeps coming up and not by Amir or HD DVD mouth pieces. Where's the "FUD" in that? It seems the "FUD" in this story has morphed more into character assassination.

Has AVS made anyone else really hate the word FUD?

The problem is that tactics like that were used in the past and continue to this day. FUD was brought to AVS, not by the rank and file enthusist, but by the vested interests that seek to use AVS as a platform for their own purposes. If you fail to see that reality then you just haven't paid close attention to the last year here on AVS.

b2b

How much did you spend to start watching MS-DVD ?? If you mean HD DVD, then $399+$200=$599.

Is anyone besides Sony pressing dual layer BD's yet?No.

And therein lies the problem. I mean issue. I mean opportunity.

If you mean HD DVD, then $399+$200=$599.

Maybe cheaper soon...

Xbox 360 price cut for the holiday season (http://www.techkills.com/273-xbox-360-price-cut-for-the-holiday-season.html)

If you mean HD DVD, then $399+$200=$599.

Ooops.. Wrong Mike.. The other Mike (Mullis ?) is the gamer that only spent $200 for HD-DVD.

b2b

Is anyone besides Sony pressing dual layer BD's yet? Is it not true there were a ton of delays and technical issues getting it out the door? So is it FUD when Amir says, hey I know a replicator who thinks it's science fiction, when said replicator probably still isn't making them yet today and the quote was made a year ago?When someone can produce BD50 commercially, it is not science fiction. Period. It doesn't matter if there is only one company in the world that can do it. Delays happen. Is SED science fiction? Cost reduction of the process is a required effort to get a product out and be successful with it.

By the way, Amir is very accurate in what he says. I will give him that. Doesn't mean he doesn't spread FUD. Here is one example (from the original thread):

And don't forget, to get more capacity, there is dual layer.

I and many other people like to forget. Thank you . Even the panel member from DLUX on the home theater cruise agreed that DL BD is not real and is akin to science fiction. Widescreen Review should put out the transcripts soon....
So, yes, he didn't directly say it, but did use it when someone mentioned BD50. Take note of the use of the word 'Even' (hint: inclusive). You can keep the challenge open, and you will win, because he never said it directly. Happy?

I think we should just drop the whole thing, but some how it keeps coming up and not by Amir or HD DVD mouth pieces. Where's the "FUD" in that? It seems the "FUD" in this story has morphed more into character assassination.We tolerated this 'science fiction' FUD for a couple of years why can't we tolerate a mere reference to it? There is only a finite amount of time when one can spread FUD. After that the tide turns. And by the way, I am not surprised that Amir or HD-DVD supporters don't bring it up. Guess why! :)

Has AVS made anyone else really hate the word FUD?Okay, that I agree with. I have started to hate this word even though I had to use the word in this post. I think it is a matter of balance. :)

Personally, I would rather drop the whole format debate at this point (if I could)!

Maybe cheaper soon...

Xbox 360 price cut for the holiday season (http://www.techkills.com/273-xbox-360-price-cut-for-the-holiday-season.html)

Article from June ??? :confused:

Published:
6.20.06 / 12pm
Last time I checked the "Holidays" aren't "soon on us", but are "on us".. No $100 price cut yet..

b2b

I can't help but to notice your lopsided scrutiny of AVS insiders. In addition, I'm not entirely sure you yourself are living above the vested interest you vow to protect everyone from.

I can't help but to notice your lopsided scrutiny of AVS insiders. In addition, I'm not entirely sure you yourself are living above the vested interest you vow to protect everyone from. :confused: (Edit: I guess this is not directed at me).