HiDef DVD News VII - News Only : AND WE MEAN IT: NEWS ONLY

[mikemorel]

Agree. And studios would run away screaming if MS decided to abandon HD-DVD.Do you mean they would not push toward high definition DVD? DVD is being ravaged by blatant duplication. Studios desperately want a hi-def format. HD DVD is the cheaper of the two to replicate.

Hell, even toshiba probably would. W/o the PS3, the other CE companies in BD would put out a 600 USD player, subsidized but functional, like the A-1.Studios not getting substantial royalties from BD have no reason to subsidize BD players.

W/o MS slaving away to prop up HD-DVD, this forum would be fairly empty of suspense wrt the format war.I finally bought an XBox 360 yesterday to go with the HD-DVD player. All I could say is WOW during KK. MI:3 up tonight.

And replication is cheap and does not require a substantial investment in replication facilities. What is there to not like in this format?

The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building HD-DVD players. Once they find that HD-DVD has already been discounted to $199 at retail, they head for the hills... Once again, b2b, this time with rythem; $399 +$199 = $598...for the full experience....And kjack's $150 BD player in a TV by 2007? By who? Pioneer?

[mikemorel]

BTW: anyone see in the HD DVD players section where HP is offering an HD DVD upgrade to PCs for $99?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=756087

I went to the site, lo and behold - $99 upcharge for an HD DVD drive. :)

Meanwhile, BD struggles to include CD support on BD drives.... :(

[rdjam]

So how many 360 HD DVD add-on were actually sold? 10K?
Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately.

Other media reports indicate that Sony only had 150,000 PS3s shipped for launch.

[b2bonez]

Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately.

Other media reports indicate that Sony only had 150,000 PS3s shipped for launch.

Links ???

This is what Amir had to say..

Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP
Amir: I can understand both of them. But can you at least give us a ball park figure on how many MS thinks they will ship in 2006 or so far? are we talking 1M? or 10k? or 100k> or 200k like some are saying?

I am confused why it matters to you Anthony. I thought you were in blu-ray camp. Did you get a recent job as a market analyst?

But no, Xbox related data like this is highly confidential. Come and tell me something I don't know about PS3 shipment volumes and I might think about reciprocating...


b2b

[mikemorel]

SCEA Comments on PS3 Resolution on Older HDTVs (http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/news/?id=14518)

Sony is working on a fix for sets that lack 720p [Updated!]


Sony has contacted us to let us know that they may have spoken a bit prematurely. SCEA's Dave Karraker, Sr. Director, Corporate Communications, informed GameDaily BIZ that they currently cannot confirm that this 1080i issue will be resolved via a firmware patch. The official line is now that they are "looking into the issue and haven't stated any actions that will be taken regarding it."

[rdjam]

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

In the January edition of Home Cinema Choice (UK) - the Bluray Special Issue, there are some interesting cat-talk comments from the Bluray camp (I've added CAPS as emphasis, here and there):

...(PANASONIC) senior executives have admitted that they are surprised that the (Bluray) hi def disc system is still embroiled in a format war with rival HD DVD. They also say that the decision to author the first Bluray titles in Mpeg2 format was a mistake.

...Toshihiro Sakamoto, president of Panasonic's AVC networks company, admits that he thought HD DVD would run out of steam early: "I was hoping that by the end of this year, there would not be a format war"...

How cloistered and unrealistic were some of these people??

...Sakamoto says he is unconcerned that large swathes of Hollywood are now supporting both HD formats. "If I was a software manufacturer, I would buy insurance," he says. "That's natural."

Large swathes? Maybe he knows something?

...Asked if he has been surprised by the generally positive reaction to HD DVD since its American launch, he candidly admits: "Not really. After all Panasonic hasn't released a product yet, and no one has seen the movie titles which we have encoded in H.264 (aka Mpeg4 AVC). We will NOT be encoding in Mpeg2. The picture quality on the early Mpeg2 titles is NOT good. In comparison, OUR H.264 encoding is really excellent."

..."Sony Pictures, I think, tried to launch before the right authoring tools were available. It had to take a technologically conservative approach. THAT'S why it selected Mpeg2."

"I'm sure everyone will move to H.264. It is much better"

Prety damning assessment of Mpeg2, HUH? How does that sit with various Sony shills that post on the internet that Mpeg2 is "da bomb"?

Now would you think that Sony might NOW start conceeding that Mpeg2 is not the right codec for the next-generation?

Well, let's flip forward a few pages in the same issue for an interview with Sony - given by none other than the inimitable Don Eklund. Yes - some of you will recognize the king of credibility (NOT) from his various other FUD-mongering and less than accurate interviews elsewhere...

The interview starts nicely enough with not MUCH mention of the PQ problems of the Bluray format :)

Matt Brown (Exec VP, Europe) and Don Eklund (Exec VP, advanced Technologies) [heh! Mpeg2 falls under that?!] are KEEN to explain their company's take on the HD format war, and allay consumer fears over region coding, Mpeg2, and why Jessica Alba looks a bit GRAINY in that skimpy bikini...

"It was entirely our choice which titles we launched with, and our duty was to build the format by releasing the best picture and the best sound", explains Brown. "I believe we have done that with our initial releases."

HAH! Ya right...

Don Eklund is seen by many in the industry as the face of Bluray. In his role at Sony Pictures, Eklund has overseen the development of the Mpeg2 authoring system that has been utilised by Sony Pictures for all of it's Bluray releases to date.

Naturally, given the controversy that has surrounded the company's decision to stick with Mpeg2 encoding while other companies are already authoring bluray titles in H.264 - not to mention recent comments by Panasonic's Kazuhiro Tsuga (see page 7) - we are quick to ask him for a response.

Wait for it.... :p

Without addressing Tsuga's comments in detail, Eklund says that "Panasonic has also developed what APPEARS to be a VERY EXPENSIVE AVC encoder which they're quite PROUD of". This indicates a belief that this was little more than a rival attempting to downplay the competition, as both Panasonic and Sony Pictures have proprietary Bluray authoring software that they are licensing out to various film studios.

MEEEOOOWWW!! How about some milk with that Sony?

As for sticking with Mpeg2 encoding, it is CLEARLY a question that Eklund has been asked many times before, and he is QUICK to DEFEND the codec.

"...once you get above 20 mbps and you goal is to make the perfect representation, ALL the codecs perform, BASICALLY, equally well. The significant difference between Mpeg2, which we're using on an encoder, (which coincidentally Sony developed for Bluray), versus H.264 and VC-1 is that the latter are software-based and they require many processors to encode. And even with those many processors they take many times realtime to encode yet again. So if you discuss how LONG it takes to do a picture encoding, for instance, Warner Brothers will tell more than two weeks. We can make an outstanding picture, probably Black Hawk down is a good example, in about two days. So IF I can make a picture at a SUFFICIENTLY high bitrate, that has no DISCERNABLE difference from those by the other codecs, but which takes only ten percent as long to encode, why would I use a different codec?"

AHAH!! There it is again - That pretty much translates to "we like MPEG2 because it is QUICKER and CHEAPER to use than the other codecs!". Busted again!

The magazine writer continues...

Of course, WE'VE seen the differences between some of the more QUESTIONABLE Mpeg2 authored discs on the market from Sony Pictures (such as Into The Blue), and the stunning quality of 20th Century Fox's H.264 authored titles. BUT Eklund remains ADAMANT that this is NOT down to the codec. Instead, he places the blame in a very SURPRISING place, "Ultimately, people tend to use this to point at the codec and criticise it, but MOST OFTEN it is the FAULT of the source material, NOT the Mpeg2 encoding."

B**lSh*t. Eklund wraps up his inspiring and factually ever-so-accurate interview with:

"But ultimately, Bluray is all about high quality picture, high quality sound and that's what we're delivering now."

Funny how he seems to have NO CREDIBILITY even with the magazines now, not just A/V fans on this site...

[mikemorel]

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

RDJam - next time - no lime green. Those of us with alternate screen colors can't read it...

But yes, big news. :D

[rdjam]

RDJam - next time - no lime green. Those of us with alternate screen colors can't read it...

But yes, big news. :D
Whoops :) I fix...

[rover2002]

Jesus Christ, CHANGE THE GREEN FONTS !!!!!

[rdjam]

Is the Blue text better? :o

[markrubin]

Is the Blue better? :o

please go back and edit your posts:


it is called Blu-ray

you know better

[rdjam]

Other news - The PS3 is being promoted heavily as the Bluray player that will reverse the significant lead that HD DVD currently enjoys.

There's now news that the player has been cracked, and that game discs (ie rentals or borrowed games) can be saved to the hard drive.

Not yet know if this applies to movies as well...

"One week after launch, PS3 can rip games to any PC hard drive you feel like slapping in..."

http://forum.teamxbox.com/showthread.php?t=488266


I'm only linking to a discussion of it, as it would be against forum rules to go further.

But the news itself might give cause for developers to be concerned.

[rdjam]

please go back and edit your posts:


it is called Blu-ray

you know better
Hi Mark - it certainly isn't intended as a slur to write Bluray, as it's used commonly, even if it is not strictly the exact term. It is not derogatory in any way.

Since I was transcribing everything by hand, it's easier. Surely no-one is reporting compaints over something this petty?

EDIT = OOps, never mind, I found the mistake I think you meant - fixed. Sorry about that..

[2Channel]

Other news - The PS3 is being promoted heavily as the Bluray player that will reverse the significant lead that HD DVD currently enjoys.

There's now news that the player has been cracked, and that game discs (ie rentals or borrowed games) can be saved to the hard drive.

Not yet know if this applies to movies as well...

"One week after launch, PS3 can rip games to any PC hard drive you feel like slapping in..."

http://forum.teamxbox.com/showthread.php?t=488266


I'm only linking to a discussion of it, as it would be against forum rules to go further.

But the news itself might give cause for developers to be concerned.

That'll really boost sales of the 60G model. ;)

[mikemorel]

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

...Toshihiro Sakamoto, president of Panasonic's AVC networks company, admits that he thought HD DVD would run out of steam early: "I was hoping that by the end of this year, there would not be a format war".[/B]

How cloistered and unrealistic were some of these people??

...Sakamoto says he is unconcerned that large swathes of Hollywood are now supporting both HD formats. "If I was a software manufacturer, I would buy insurance," he says. "That's natural."
Large swathes? Maybe he knows something?This quote reminds me of a quote in April...Queue the dream music...

Matsushita Says NO to HD DVD-BD Compromise (http://www.audioholics.com/news/editorials/HDDVDBlurayoneformats.php)

In comments to Reuters, Kazuhiro Tsuga, an executive at Japan's Matsushita, has stated next-generation Blu-ray and HD DVD formats will never merge. "We are not talking and will not talk," he said. "The market will decide the winner." No one at the time was even considering, never mind expecting a truce. Why would they say that stuff, then and now?

[mikemorel]

Nintendo and Sony Get Caught in Microsoft's Xbox 360 Mousetrap (http://games-news.sympatico.msn.ca/Video_Games/BreakingNews/ContentPosting.htm?newsitemid=6874bba7-1c78-4f07-bff5-25738e90510a&feedname=TODD_BREAKINGNEWS&show=true&number=5&showbyline=true&abc=abc)
With 10 million XBox 360 consoles on the market by Jan 07, I see a huge market for HD DVD add-ons. HD DVD add-on works extremely well...If MS ever reduces the price of the 360, war is over. Sony has to reduce price. If they do, without reducing cost however, finances get a whole lot worse....

[nataraj]

Dismal number?


Compared to promises made.

[nataraj]

Some news about video downloads from XBox live.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/293648_msftxbox25.html

Early users of Microsoft Corp.'s new Xbox Live online TV and movie service have been reporting widespread technical problems, including unusually long download times, undelivered content and repeat charges.

Microsoft acknowledged the difficulties Friday, promised refunds to people experiencing trouble and said it was on track to resolving the situation.

Here is the interesting part ...

The demand was "significantly beyond what anybody ever expected," said Aaron Greenberg, the Xbox Live group's marketing manager.

[mikemorel]

Some news about video downloads from XBox live.
In my 24 hours experience with this product, I can corroborate this completely...Better to stay local, with HD-DVD.

[rdjam]

Crickets from the BR side of the aisle on the HCC reports re: sony and Panasonic?

Well, at least we won't keep hearing how VC1 and AVC1 "aren't better than Mpeg2"...

[Talkstr8t]

Meanwhile, BD struggles to include CD support on BD drives.... One drive model (first generation) doesn't include CD support. Every other does, including four or five burners. Where are all the HD-DVD burners? How many HD-DVD ROM drives are even available? Toshiba, NEC, LiteOn, umm, huh.

[Talkstr8t]

Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately. Would you mind citing/ linking one of those reports, please?
Other media reports indicate that Sony only had 150,000 PS3s shipped for launch.They announced 90K in Japan and the lowest estimates for US launch were 125K.

[mikemorel]

Wii DVD player planned (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35919)

Of coiurse it's the Inquirer, nothing more than rumor and inuendo....

Next year, according to rumours.

NINTENDO HAS plans to release a new version of the Wii next year that will ship with a HD DVD player, according to industry rumours.

...
However, the spokesNintendo admitted it shouldn't be impossible in theory. In fact, said the spokesman, Microsoft was able to patch the Xbox 360 to support 1080p and Nintendo has already released a patch to allow Wii gamers to transfer game saves to SD cards.
There are rumors that Wii can support 720p/1080i.

[smithfarmer]

The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building BD players. Once they find that BD has already been discounted to $499 at retail, they head for the hills... ;)

b2b
Fixed. ;)

[mikemorel]

Where are all the HD-DVD burners? How many HD-DVD ROM drives are even available? Toshiba, NEC, LiteOn, umm, huh.
Who cares about burning anything with next gen drives when Hollywood won't let you burn anything? Have you seen ANY statistics that I have been posting about DVD recorders in north america/europe? DVD recording of video in NA/Europe is dead. Worse than dead. And that is before HD comes along and puts a stop to BD recording to disc completely. Unless, of course, you can divulge plans that would say otherwise.

How many BD burners have been sold? Do they have DL capability? How much does DL BD-RE cost? How much does DL BD ROM cost?

[evader45]

I also find it funny about the HD-DVD Addon talk. TalkStr8t, if you go through 90% of the threads about the Addon, they also own the A1! So they're essentially trying out whatever they can as an alternative to the horrific hardware that is the A1. Then they claim that every addon = new customer for discs, when clearly, its mostly the same small minute group of people buying the players in addition to the A1. And go to Frys in so cal, any of them. The HD-DVD Addons have been collecting dust there and the guy working at the department there said theres 0 interest in them, everyone asks about the Wii, and of course, the PS3.

Viva La Blu-Ray!

Would you please stop with the misinformation and the "collecting dust" talk? If you look add the add-on buyers poll here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

It's pretty clear that the vast majority of the buyers do not also have an A1.

[rdjam]

Would you mind citing/ linking one of those reports, please?
They announced 90K in Japan and the lowest estimates for US launch were 125K.
Yes, I was talking about the US only. You've confirmed my number, and even dropped it by 25,000 :)

As for the Xbox add-on, are you disagreeing with the 200,000 or the 120,000 - the stories were linked in another thread that I'm pretty sure you participated in.

Now...

Blu-ray player sales have now permanently surpassed HD-DVD player sales!

Now how about providing evidence of your rather exhuberant signature?

And if fewer people use the PS3 for Bluray movies, it would be indicated by lower bluray movie disc sales, correct?

And movie sales are what matters to the studios, yes?

[mobius]

Some news about video downloads from XBox live.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/293648_msftxbox25.html



Here is the interesting part ...


That sort of stuff is fixable to a large degree. What I want to know is what the picture quality is like with the 720p movies.

[mobius]

Wii DVD player planned (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35919)

Of coiurse it's the Inquirer, nothing more than rumor and inuendo....

There are rumors that Wii can support 720p/1080i.


In terms of studio perception, that could be huge. I say that with a double dose of skepticism though. It's most probably BS.

[Talkstr8t]

I did a search on the forum. Found no such well-documentation. So you will have to link for me. I find it hard to believe one CE had that much power over everyone else that they held their nose and let Toshiba dictate the forum's direction.Here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8237466&&#post8237466), here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8237466&&#post8237466) , many posts in the several pages following here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8418043&&#post8418043) , and external confirmation here (http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20020222S0020) and here (http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,105534-page,1/article.html). There are many more references, search for "DVD Forum", "Steering Committee", and "AOD" for pointers.
First off, they did NOT state Xbox 360 sales in the middle of the month after the product was on sale for merely a couple of weeks. Trust me, I covered the launch. We didn't get sales numbers of the console for a good while. So to try and marginalize the add-on because Microsoft won't immediately give you sales numbers is a little below the proverbial belt.Except in the midst of buying season if they're looking to build momentum they will surely take the opportunity to do so. That's very different from the standard reporting of sales numbers to meet fiduciary obligations.

[g55555sim]

Accepted figures of 380K Xbox 360's sold last year from launch until the end of the year versus very, very conservative figures of 200K PS3's sold at launch (88K in Japan and 120K in the US) plus 100K/wk additional deliveries. Even if Sony only hits half that number they'll still easily pass 2006 Xbox 360 sales.
Because if Microsoft had sold anywhere near enough HD-DVD add-ons to compare with even a fraction of PS3 sales (or standalone HD-DVD players) they'd surely be publicizing the number to anyone who would listen. They've often stated Xbox 360 sales; why wouldn't they state add-on sales?

forgive my "potential ignorance" but did MS announce a 2mil launch figure just months before XBox 360's actual launch? :D

[Talkstr8t]

Who cares about burning anything with next gen drives when Hollywood won't let you burn anything? Have you seen ANY statistics that I have been posting about DVD recorders in north america/europe? DVD recording of video in NA/Europe is dead. Worse than dead. And that is before HD comes along and puts a stop to BD recording to disc completely.There's far more to recording than recording Hollywood content. There's recording over the air content, there's recording camcorder-shot content, there's complilation of hours and hours of SD video, there's archival of non-video data. Are you claiming there's no value in recordable DVD, or that it has sufficient capacity? Did you make the same argument when recordable DVD first came out with regards to recordable CD?
How many BD burners have been sold? Do they have DL capability? How much does DL BD-RE cost? How much does DL BD ROM cost?Most of them do have DL capability. Of course costs are high, sales are currently miniscule, which is exactly how recordable CD and DVD started as well. Few who are knowledgeable deny, however, that BD is far more suited to recordability than HD-DVD.

[mikemorel]

In terms of studio perception, that could be huge. I say that with a double dose of skepticism though. It's most probably BS.If Ninendo comes out with add-on HD-DVD it's game over, Sony...Speculation, of course.

[nilsp]

But yes, big news. :D

What is the BIG news, exactly? That Panasonic talks up their own H.264 or that Sony keeps praising MPEG2? (That Eklund guy really needs to be replaced, btw.) Sorry, but I fail to see a) the news and b) the BIG news...

[nilsp]

In my 24 hours experience with this product, I can corroborate this completely...Better to stay local, with HD-DVD.
They'll probably work it out, increase # of servers, bandwidth etc... But I agree, I prefer the shiny disc (Blu-ray, in my case) in my hand (or rather in my player :)). (Or I will, once I get the PS3...)

But the tides may be turning. Could we be seeing the beginning of the end for shiny discs?

[nilsp]

If Ninendo comes out with add-on HD-DVD it's game over, Sony...Speculation, of course.

Maybe I should just call you... ;)

HD DVD, in glorious 480P? I think not...

[mikemorel]

There's far more to recording than recording Hollywood content. There's recording over the air content, there's recording camcorder-shot content, there's complilation of hours and hours of SD video, there's archival of non-video data. Are you claiming there's no value in recordable DVD, or that it has sufficient capacity? Did you make the same argument when recordable DVD first came out with regards to recordable CD?Yes I am claiming that, because North America does not know what they can or cannot record. You want me to quote stats? You won't be happy if I do.

Most of them do have DL capability.Good to know that most do. Is there a web site I can go to which tells me which do and which do not?

Of course costs are high, sales are currently miniscule, which is exactly how recordable CD and DVD started as well. Few who are knowledgeable deny, however, that BD is far more suited to recordability than HD-DVD.Good luck to you on the recordability front Talk; even if it suceeds, Sun fails (w/BD-J).

[g55555sim]

MEEEOOOWWW!! How about some milk with that Sony? ...

LOL ... now here comes Toshiba .. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr :D


"But ultimately, Bluray is all about high quality picture, high quality sound and that's what we're delivering now."[/B]

Funny how he seems to have NO CREDIBILITY even with the magazines now, not just A/V fans on this site...

I do not agree with you on that. He was just emphasizing that those initial launch PQ and sound were/are the best that Sony Pictures can do ! :D

[mikemorel]

Maybe I should just call you... ;)

HD DVD, in glorious 480P? I think not...Yes absolutely you should call me, if rumors that Wii can support 720p/1080i are correct... ;) I would be amazed...

[trbarry]

There's far more to recording than recording Hollywood content. There's recording over the air content, there's recording camcorder-shot content, there's complilation of hours and hours of SD video, there's archival of non-video data. Are you claiming there's no value in recordable DVD, or that it has sufficient capacity? Did you make the same argument when recordable DVD first came out with regards to recordable CD?

Probably equally common if less talked about is just ignoring Hollywood's rules and the legal fine print and recording pirated or other content from whatever sources, as data with no copy protection. It is just the economical means to record DATA that I'm interested in. Once something is recorded as unencumbered data it's an easy matter to find ways to play it, archive it, move it, etc.

- Tom

[mikemorel]

They'll probably work it out, increase # of servers, bandwidth etc... But I agree, I prefer the shiny disc (Blu-ray, in my case) in my hand (or rather in my player :)). (Or I will, once I get the PS3...)

But the tides may be turning. Could we be seeing the beginning of the end for shiny discs?I'm thinking 5 years...

[g55555sim]

Of course costs are high, sales are currently miniscule, which is exactly how recordable CD and DVD started as well. Few who are knowledgeable deny, however, that BD is far more suited to recordability than HD-DVD.

Good luck to you on the recordability front Talk; even if it suceeds, Sun fails (w/BD-J).

I send my best wishes on that front too. Actually i think both HD DVD/BD wont do well as recordable media :D Regular consumers (non industrial or movie pirates) do not need 15GB or 25GB recordable media. After many many years, DVD9R is still MUCH MORE pricier than DVD5R. Basically, i think 700MB CDR is more than enough for regular usage.

[Talkstr8t]

Yes, I was talking about the US only. You've confirmed my number, and even dropped it by 25,000I am using the most pessimistic analysts' estimates just so you won't claim I am cherry-picking a number.
As for the Xbox add-on, are you disagreeing with the 200,000 or the 120,000 - the stories were linked in another thread that I'm pretty sure you participated in.I disagree with both numbers. I don't think the manufactured nor shipped anywhere near those numbers. And I don't recall a single source referencing an official (or even analyst's estimate) number. If it's in a thread I'm sure you or someone else can point it out.
Now how about providing evidence of your rather exhuberant signature?What do you dispute? Even taking the lowest possible estimates there were more than 200K PS3's sold as of last Friday, ignoring standalone players and upcoming shipments. The only possible way my signature is wrong is if Sony hasn't shipped a single additional player beyond the launch volume and if MS has sold 125K+ add-ons. And since there are reports that Best Buy had new units for sale yesterday, the theory that Sony has shipped no additional units is blown.
And if fewer people use the PS3 for Bluray movies, it would be indicated by lower bluray movie disc sales, correct? And movie sales are what matters to the studios, yes?Agreed. So let's look at Blu-ray movie sales and rentals starting in January, once most of the units being sold now are actually in use. Anything before that doesn't present the full picture since so many current sales are for resale or are going under the Christmas Tree / Hanukkah bush / Kwanzaa shrub, etc.

[Talkstr8t]

Here is the interesting part The demand was "significantly beyond what anybody ever expected," said Aaron Greenberg, the Xbox Live group's marketing manager.What do you expect him to say? "Very few people seem to care about Xbox video downloads, and even with the slack demand our infrastructure was completely overwhelmed."

[Talkstr8t]

Wii DVD player planned (http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=35919)Of coiurse it's the Inquirer, nothing more than rumor and inuendo....This is yet another example of an uninformed "journalist" misreading a source article. First of all, the source article (http://www.gameinformer.com/News/Story/200611/N06.1120.1725.47900.htm) for the Inquirer's article doesn't mention a thing about HD-DVD, just DVD and, in a separate context, high definition. Further, it's already been leaked (see here (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/5514/6538/nintendo-wii-sonic-dvd-playback.phtml) for one source) that Sonic Solutions will provide DVD playback software for the Wii. Finally, the Wii simply doesn't have the hardware or the memory to do HD. An HD DVD add-on would essentially be a full HD-DVD player and could use very little of the Wii's existing hardware.

Does no one actually think before speculating on some of these things?

[Talkstr8t]

Yes I am claiming that, because North America does not know what they can or cannot record. You want me to quote stats? You won't be happy if I do.I know that most of the camcorders on the shelf seem to be based on DVD now, not MiniDV, yet my father-in-law just returned one because the 20 minutes you can store on a disc at max quality is woefully insufficient. Are you saying people aren't buying camcorders, and if they do they won't want 5x the capacity on a disc? DVD recorder sales are meaningless, as few people want to create permanent archives of broadcast TV, and if they want to a Tivo with a network connection to a PC can do it.
Most of them do have DL capability.Good to know that most do. Is there a web site I can go to which tells me which do and which do not?I don't have one handy. I'm sure Google can turn up the info without difficulty.
Good luck to you on the recordability front Talk; even if it suceeds, Sun fails (w/BD-J).How is recordability related to BD-J?

[mikemorel]

This is yet another example of an uninformed "journalist" misreading a source article. First of all, the source article (http://www.gameinformer.com/News/Story/200611/N06.1120.1725.47900.htm) for the Inquirer's article doesn't mention a thing about HD-DVD, just DVD and, in a separate context, high definition. Further, it's already been leaked (see here (http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/5514/6538/nintendo-wii-sonic-dvd-playback.phtml) for one source) that Sonic Solutions will provide DVD playback software for the Wii. Finally, the Wii simply doesn't have the hardware or the memory to do HD. An HD DVD add-on would essentially be a full HD-DVD player and could use very little of the Wii's existing hardware.

Does no one actually think before speculating on some of these things?Geez Talk - I said it was a rumor. :D

[Talkstr8t]

...Sakamoto says he is unconcerned that large swathes of Hollywood are now supporting both HD formats. "If I was a software manufacturer, I would buy insurance," he says. "That's natural."Large swathes? Maybe he knows something?Warner on their own qualfies as a pretty good-sized swatch.
Of course, WE'VE seen the differences between some of the more QUESTIONABLE Mpeg2 authored discs on the market from Sony Pictures (such as Into The Blue), and the stunning quality of 20th Century Fox's H.264 authored titles. BUT Eklund remains ADAMANT that this is NOT down to the codec. Instead, he places the blame in a very SURPRISING place, "Ultimately, people tend to use this to point at the codec and criticise it, but MOST OFTEN it is the FAULT of the source material, NOT the Mpeg2 encoding."B**lSh*t.While there have clearly been sub-par releases in MPEG2, there have also been exceptional releases on a par with the best VC-1 and AVC releases. Therefore one can't claim MPEG2 is incapable of stunning picture quality. There is clearly more to the equation than just the codec.

[g55555sim]

^, ^^, ^^^, Oh dear ... if only BD spend this much time to listen to what critics said and are saying or what consumer wants, BD wouldnt be in this much of deep sh1t right now !!

[Richard Paul]

I don't hate Microsoft or Bill Gates Richard, though that was a pretty slick try. :) Usually since the masses hate Gates for what he's accomplished and he's the symbol of evil for most, I try to understand why people make the comparisons.I was just making a comparison that a lot of people are asking for something with the HD format war that they would find absurd for operating systems. Also the way your post was phrased I thought you were implying that you hated Microsoft and Bill Gates. Wasn't trying to pull a fast one or anything.


As for the comparison, my point was that Windows has been established, though many have tried and failed. Linux has zero chance of taking any real share of the OS home market. HD DVD and Blu-ray are new technologies hitting at around the same time, and now a format is trying to be decided from them both. That is why the comparison is not the same.Well in my opinion Linux and HD DVD have about the same chance of winning in their respective markets though obviously a lot of people would disagree with that. Personally I just find it absurd that some people truly believe that the studios should be forced to support every video format that is released.


On the contrary - the PS3 is the only reason there is a format war at this point. If not for the PS3 Blu-ray would never have seen the light of day. Studios would have ran away screaming in terror at the sight of BD without PS3 to prop it up.I think your exaggerating a bit, but does that mean you believe that the PS3 is the main factor in how well Blu-ray will do in this format war?


Microsoft announced they shipped 200,000 for the launch. Media reports indicate 120,000 sold immediately.rdjam, care to back this claim up with some links to those media reports?


Crickets from the BR side of the aisle on the HCC reports re: sony and Panasonic?

Well, at least we won't keep hearing how VC1 and AVC1 "aren't better than Mpeg2"...No offense rdjam but your posts sometimes get so vile that it doesn't even seem worth it to reply to them. Also how many Blu-ray supporters are there that actually believe that the advanced video codecs are not more efficient at encoding than MPEG-2? Apparently you feel free to call them "Sony shills" but you don't actually mention any of their names.

[UxiSXRD]

While there have clearly been sub-par releases in MPEG2, there have also been exceptional releases on a par with the best VC-1 and AVC releases. Therefore one can't claim MPEG2 is incapable of stunning picture quality. There is clearly more to the equation than just the codec.

Sounds reasonable. In a demonstration on a reference level setup (calibrated Q004 front projector through a Pioneer Elite player with an HD-A1 and Panasonic BD player) there were zero quantifiable differences in quality between various VC1 and Mpeg 2 releases. Both deliver excellent quality at a price differential that's insignificant on any measurable scale that includes that display device. In fact, I'd say the difference was multiplied several times over by the decorations on the walls of this home theater setup... :D

I just can't understand how anyone could be an absolute partisan in this format war, without something else at stake. Both formats deliver outstanding PQ and AQ. The rest appears to me to be mostly politics and industry plants...

[Michael Mullis]

Well in my opinion Linux and HD DVD have about the same chance of winning in their respective markets though obviously a lot of people would disagree with that. Personally I just find it absurd that some people truly believe that the studios should be forced to support every video format that is released.

That's ok. But I don't agree. Warner Bros. has precisely the right attitude about this situation. Put movies on both and let the consumer decide. What I think is funny is that unlike Universal, Fox, and Disney, Warner Bros. and Paramount get to make money on both sides of the fence. Warner certainly has already begun to make money from me on the HD DVD side. I double-dipped Batman Begins (already own on DVD but heard the HD transfer was great), picked up Dukes of Hazzard, and have all three of their Superman releases on pre-order.

I can pretty much guarantee that I won't be picking up any Fox or Disney or Lionsgate Blu-ray movies, so that's money they lose on me. They would certainly make the same kind of money off me if I had access to HD DVD versions of their movies.

I actually will have more Warner Bros. titles than I will Universal titles for now.

[mikemorel]

I think your exaggerating a bit, but does that mean you believe that the PS3 is the main factor in how well Blu-ray will do in this format war?The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3. How embarassing is that? Nevermind...BD supporters do not care. What is vague about this?

[Richard Paul]

I can pretty much guarantee that I won't be picking up any Fox or Disney or Lionsgate Blu-ray movies, so that's money they lose on me.True, and eventually I am hoping that one of the HD formats gets enough consumer support to get all six of the major studios. Of course I would prefer it to be Blu-ray.


The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3.Okay, that certainly does clarify your belief on how important the PS3 is to Blu-ray.

[Michael Mullis]

True, and eventually I am hoping that one of the HD formats gets enough consumer support to get all six of the major studios. Of course I would prefer it to be Blu-ray.

And I HD DVD. Because unless there's a $200 Blu-ray add-on coming for the Xbox 360, if HD DVD goes away it will be a good while before I drop $500+ on a standalone player. Truth be told I'd still have neither format if not for the price of the add-on.

Right now, like you Richard, I am voting in this format war with my wallet. And I am not allowing a company to dictate my choices for me. When Fox begins to support the format I chose, then I will purchase their product. Not before.

And I want to clarify. I don't care if Blu-ray exists as a format or not. That's what I find to be one of the big differences in the two sets of supporters. BD people don't simply want to have Blu-ray, they want the destruction of HD DVD. I haven't seen the same fervor on the HD DVD side that wants Blu-ray dead. I guess we just want to watch our movies in the format we picked.

Personally, Blu-ray staying around as the other HD movie format doesn't matter to me.

[johnu]

The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3. How embarassing is that? Nevermind...BD supporters do not care. What is vague about this?

A lot of people keep trying to remind people that Sony is not Blu-ray. Ironically, at this point they are correct. PS3 is Blu-ray, everything else is a comma in history right now.

[rdjam]

What do you dispute? Even taking the lowest possible estimates there were more than 200K PS3's sold as of last Friday, ignoring standalone players and upcoming shipments. Your own number said the worst case was 125,000 PS3s - now you say the lowest worst case is 200,000?

The only possible way my signature is wrong is if Sony hasn't shipped a single additional player beyond the launch volume and if MS has sold 125K+ add-ons. And since there are reports that Best Buy had new units for sale yesterday, the theory that Sony has shipped no additional units is blown.So let's look at N. America alone - 125,000 PS3s and 10,000 BR standalone players.

Compared with 70,000 standalone HD DVD players plus 120,000 (or maybe 200,000) Xbox HD DVD players.

So the number COULD be 135,000 Bluray players, versus 190,000 or even 270,000 HD DVD players. And that doesn't include the fact that most of those PS3 bluray players will have a MUCH lower movie attach rate than ANY of the HD DVD players counted - by anyone's estimation.

But my real POINT was PROVE IT... You make a statement of fact in your signature that you cannot back up. All of our estimations are just guesses - your statement is not based on fact.

Agreed. So let's look at Blu-ray movie sales and rentals starting in January, once most of the units being sold now are actually in use. Anything before that doesn't present the full picture since so many current sales are for resale or are going under the Christmas Tree / Hanukkah bush / Kwanzaa shrub, etc.False - while this is true of some of them, most of these machines are not going to sit unused for a month. People are too keen to tear them open and fire them up.

My opinion is that this is just another "delaying" tactic to prevent studios and pundits from reaching any judgements on the format in time for CES. Bluray people do NOT want any studio announcements at CES, so are NOW telling everyone "Hey, you can't use December sales as an indication - everyone is hiding those 150,000 PS3s away and are not using them. WAIT another 2 months!"

I can tell you if the "needle" doesn't move significantly for Bluray movie sales in December, with all those PS3s out there, then it means that the movie attach rates for the machine are simply abysmal.

[UxiSXRD]

Except if Sony gave up tomorrow, Matsushita, Philips, Pioneer, and the other members of the DVD Forum who joined the BDA would not. Neither would Fox be satisfied unless the DVD-Forum showed an inclination for something analogous to BD+. The BDA is far larger than just Sony.

[mobius]

My point is not to win.
I actually agree with you that it would be bad for HD DVD if no other CE manufacturer can profitably make HD DVD players that are competitively priced with Toshiba's players.
What I don't agree with is your assumption that this is in fact the case because Toshiba's subsidy is continuing with the A2.
My point simply is that the burden is on those who think that the A2 is in fact a "below cost" player to prove that, and until and unless there is evidence for the subsidy such claims should not be made.

Peace?


My point would be that there is no "point" to the discussion to begin with. The PS3 is a subsidized player, and that was played to significant advantage in wooing the studios to the Bluray format. Tit for tat? I think so.

Moreover, I don't see the "double-edged sword" here for HD-DVD because all the *other* manufacturer's have to do is wait until HD-DVD tech gets commoditized, and then release their own player.

[Rob Zuber]

I just can't understand how anyone could be an absolute partisan in this format war, without something else at stake. Both formats deliver outstanding PQ and AQ. The rest appears to me to be mostly politics and industry plants...No. There are important bandwidth and capacity differences.

[rdjam]

No offense rdjam but your posts sometimes get so vile that it doesn't even seem worth it to reply to them. Also how many Blu-ray supporters are there that actually believe that the advanced video codecs are not more efficient at encoding than MPEG-2? Apparently you feel free to call them "Sony shills" but you don't actually mention any of their names.
Actually, it's practicing the restraint to not get personal.

Which leads me to ask, "why do you call my posts, in particular, 'so vile'?" Is it because some would rather I not mention some of the truths that hurt?

[Michael Mullis]

The BDA might be larger than just Sony, but it's not THAT much larger. Remember it is Sony that promised mass market penetration with the PS3. It was Sony that promised BDA exclusive supporters that movie sales will spur and the format will be the victor.

You can talk about the BDA, but Fox is also a member of the DVD-Forum. I'm quite sure, as I've said for a while, that if the PS3 does not spur the movie sales Sony promised, Fox will not simply sit by and twiddle it's thumbs waiting while Warner, Paramount, and Universal continue to post HD DVD sales. At some point even the mighty Fox will start to get impatient if things don't turn upwards quickly.

[mobius]

Because Toshiba and Microsoft propping up a format which has been rejected by the rest of the industry greatly impedes adoption of any next-generation format by consumers. Even if Sigma had just as many HD-DVD design wins as Blu-ray they would still be seeing far lower sales due to the format war.


That's a bogus argument IMO Talk. Your characterization is overly simplistic. If Microsoft and Toshiba are "propping up the format" then Bluray consortium members are doing no more for their own format.

Perhaps if MS and Intel didn't have the perception that the studios and CE's were trying to lock PC's out of the HD optical movie playback, then they might not be so determined to throw a wrench in Bluray's monkey.

[What'sHD]

The PS3 is the only reason BD exists. PS3 is carrying BD in toto. BD is nothing without PS3. How embarassing is that? Nevermind...BD supporters do not care. What is vague about this?
Mike, re your earlier post, I meant studios would run away from HD-DVD if MS abandoned
it, IMO, not from HD in general. As would Toshiba itself if MS took its support to BD (yeah, that will happen) or went neutral.

I have an add-on on the way, so its not that I think HD-DVD sucks. Its just that I don't see the value of paying more than 2-300 bucks for just Universal titles.

Its all about content and price, for me. If HD-DVD folds, the add-on becomes my future HTPC's drive. And hey, I gotta see KK in HD pronto :)

[Kosty]

The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building HD-DVD players. Once they find that HD-DVD has already been discounted to $199 at retail, they head for the hills... ;) So bringing the price point down for 6-10 million consumers to get into HD DVD to below $199 is bad?

No wonder you support $999 -$1499 Blu-ray players!

The goal is to get HD into as many homes as possible so that studios can start releasing more titles in HD. More HD players, more market, more sales, more profit, more HD titles released, more inventory available to consumers, a virtuous circle becomes created. Consumers win, studios win, and even other CE companies win because component prices drop as quantity scales up as well as they can offer a reason to upgrade from a HD DVD console addon to a stand alone player.

Many CE companies could eventually offer a stand alone player to compete with the console add on. Thats certainly possible by next holiday season as component prices drop. Meanwhile, the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player is expanding the HD DVD market, and studios benefit in the meantime.

A $199 Xbox HD DVD movie player price, a $499 standalone player price and a $999 top end model price make a lot more sense than a $499/$599 game console price or a $999 $1299 or $1499 standalone player price.

Just because your chosen side has higher prices to gain entry into the HD disc world doesn't make high prices good.

The format that gets prices down to $19 discs and $199 players first has a significant advantage. MS has now achieved that price point for everyone that already has a Xbox 360. With the high number of Xbox owners that own HD TVs , a HD DVD player for $199 with a movie and a dedicated media remote is a reasonable alternative.

What would be the easier choice if you wanted to watch HD movies on? A $999 player? A $599 game console with no cables with a game controller for a remote? A $199 HD DVD drive with a dedicated media remote and an action movie?

If your one of the 6-10 million Xbox 360 owners the choice is clear.


And if you own a Xbox 360, just knowing you can buy a HD add on for $199 implies that HD DVD is much more affordable than Blu-ray. The $499 MSRP even seems easier because you know you have a cheaper $199 alternative.

[Richard Paul]

And I HD DVD. Because unless there's a $200 Blu-ray add-on coming for the Xbox 360, if HD DVD goes away it will be a good while before I drop $500+ on a standalone player. Truth be told I'd still have neither format if not for the price of the add-on.I see, and for those that do have an Xbox 360 the HD DVD add-on was a very reasonable choice.


And I want to clarify. I don't care if Blu-ray exists as a format or not. That's what I find to be one of the big differences in the two sets of supporters. BD people don't simply want to have Blu-ray, they want the destruction of HD DVD. I haven't seen the same fervor on the HD DVD side that wants Blu-ray dead. I guess we just want to watch our movies in the format we picked.I wouldn't agree with that generalization though personally speaking I have always wanted a clear victor in this format war. I just don't think that it would be a benefit to consumers if we did end up with universal players.


Actually, it's practicing the restraint to not get personal.Personally speaking I can't remember anyone who claimed that MPEG-2 was as efficient as the advanced video codecs. Also in my opinion restraint would have meant not having any comment about "Sony shills".


Which leads me to ask, "why do you call my posts, in particular, 'so vile'?" Is it because some would rather I not mention some of the truths that hurt?Well for one you seem to be almost overjoyed at any negative news you believe you have found about Blu-ray. Add in statements like "Sony shills" and than the post wondering why no Blu-ray supporter will comment about your post and I have to ask why are you surprised by that? If you were nicer and more restrained with your posts I believe a lot more Blu-ray supporters would be willing to reply to your posts. Also I did answer your post soon after responding to another post where you called me "P.R.".

[Kosty]

...I also find it funny about the HD-DVD Addon talk. TalkStr8t, if you go through 90% of the threads about the Addon, they also own the A1! So they're essentially trying out whatever they can as an alternative to the horrific hardware that is the A1. Then they claim that every addon = new customer for discs, when clearly, its mostly the same small minute group of people buying the players in addition to the A1. And go to Frys in so cal, any of them. The HD-DVD Addons have been collecting dust there and the guy working at the department there said theres 0 interest in them, everyone asks about the Wii, and of course, the PS3.

Viva La Blu-Ray! * Sigh *

Lets use some logic here. If 70,000 people bought the first generation HD DVD players and more people bought the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player, then there has to be some extra people buying the new HD DVD movie player option. All reports indicate that Microsoft will ship and sell far more than 70,000 add ons.

If its the same small group buying the add ons as bought the stand alone HD DVD players, then all those early HD DVD player purchases were bought by people that already had a Xbox 360, or people are buying a new $399 Xbox 360 and $199 HD DVD movie player add on for a total of $598 to replace their $499 HD DVD players. Thats very improbable.

You can't read a report of a satified HD DVD owner who bought a Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player and generalize thats the only type of person that bought one. AVS forum members may be indicative of early adopters but not the general population.

You can't take an anecdotal case of a satisfied HD DVD owner saying he buying a HD DVD add on and logically extend that to say all Xbox 360 add on HD DVD movie players are being bought by that group of people. Thats a hasty generalization fallacy. Same as your experience about seeing some inventory of a item that was released last week "gathering dust".

Some inventory is good, it allows retailers to actually sell the item and make a profit instead of just talk about it. (Talk to a retailer not selling a PS3 because of none being in stock inventory condition).

It probably takes more than a couple days for inventory to "gather dust" , well maybe thats not the case in Southern California during the time of the Santa Ana winds.

[Kosty]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

This poll of AVS members clearly indicates that new people are buying the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option and that the numbers of previous HD DVD owners buying one is relatively small.

BTW 476 is a nice large number for a poll here on AVS. That's indicative of a large demand.

[Michael Mullis]

I wouldn't agree with that generalization though personally speaking I have always wanted a clear victor in this format war. I just don't think that it would be a benefit to consumers if we did end up with universal players.

With all due respect Richard you don't have to do much looking on this and other forum to see that exact sentiment from BD supporters. They want BD at the expense of HD DVD. It's very clear here as well. Even you want a "victor", as I do not care if they both hang around.

And I am not necessarily for universal players either. Or at least in the sense that I wouldn't be in the market for one.

But why should Fox and Universal limit themselves to one half of the market if they could make money on both sides?

[2Channel]

No. There are important bandwidth and capacity differences.

When Sony Pictures is standardized on Mpeg2 (which requires more bandwidth and storage to match VC-1 for quality) can you tell us what the consumer benefit is of the increased technical abilities of BD?

The only benefit I see to BD is that a studio like Warner can do longer releases with great quality on BD-50 because they don't have an issue using VC-1. I don't see this as an important difference considering Toshiba is working on 45GB discs, and they've beaten BD to the punch on hybrid discs.

[2Channel]

Hey all - how about some actual NEWS for a change? :D

In the January edition of Home Cinema Choice (UK) -

Toshihiro Sakamoto, President of Panasonic's AVC networks company

...Asked if he has been surprised by the generally positive reaction to HD DVD since its American launch, he candidly admits: "Not really. After all Panasonic hasn't released a product yet, and no one has seen the movie titles which we have encoded in H.264 (aka Mpeg4 AVC). We will NOT be encoding in Mpeg2. The picture quality on the early Mpeg2 titles is NOT good. In comparison, OUR H.264 encoding is really excellent."

..."Sony Pictures, I think, tried to launch before the right authoring tools were available. It had to take a technologically conservative approach. THAT'S why it selected Mpeg2."

"I'm sure everyone will move to H.264. It is much better"

Well, let's flip forward a few pages in the same issue for an interview with Sony - given by none other than the inimitable Don Eklund. Yes - some of you will recognize the king of credibility (NOT) from his various other FUD-mongering and less than accurate interviews elsewhere...

Matt Brown (Exec VP, Europe, Sony) and Don Eklund (Exec VP, advanced Technologies, Sony)

Don Eklund is seen by many in the industry as the face of Bluray. In his role at Sony Pictures, Eklund has overseen the development of the Mpeg2 authoring system that has been utilised by Sony Pictures for all of it's Bluray releases to date.

Naturally, given the controversy that has surrounded the company's decision to stick with Mpeg2 encoding while other companies are already authoring bluray titles in H.264 - not to mention recent comments by Panasonic's Kazuhiro Tsuga (see page 7) - we are quick to ask him for a response.

Without addressing Tsuga's comments in detail, Eklund says that "Panasonic has also developed what APPEARS to be a VERY EXPENSIVE AVC encoder which they're quite PROUD of". This indicates a belief that this was little more than a rival attempting to downplay the competition, as both Panasonic and Sony Pictures have proprietary Bluray authoring software that they are licensing out to various film studios.

"...once you get above 20 mbps and you goal is to make the perfect representation, ALL the codecs perform, BASICALLY, equally well. The significant difference between Mpeg2, which we're using on an encoder, (which coincidentally Sony developed for Bluray), versus H.264 and VC-1 is that the latter are software-based and they require many processors to encode. And even with those many processors they take many times realtime to encode yet again. So if you discuss how LONG it takes to do a picture encoding, for instance, Warner Brothers will tell more than two weeks. We can make an outstanding picture, probably Black Hawk down is a good example, in about two days. So IF I can make a picture at a SUFFICIENTLY high bitrate, that has no DISCERNABLE difference from those by the other codecs, but which takes only ten percent as long to encode, why would I use a different codec?"

The magazine writer continues...

Of course, WE'VE seen the differences between some of the more QUESTIONABLE Mpeg2 authored discs on the market from Sony Pictures (such as Into The Blue), and the stunning quality of 20th Century Fox's H.264 authored titles. BUT Eklund remains ADAMANT that this is NOT down to the codec. Instead, he places the blame in a very SURPRISING place, "Ultimately, people tend to use this to point at the codec and criticise it, but MOST OFTEN it is the FAULT of the source material, NOT the Mpeg2 encoding."


The above quote is edited down.

Thank you Rdjam for bringing these interviews to our attention. This is very illuminating information and much appreciated.

I'd like to say that it's comforting to hear a BDA member like Panasonic be honest and say that Mpeg2 is no longer the best technology available and it's time to move to new codecs.

The Don Eklund interview is perhaps more informative in telling us what's wrong at Sony. It's pretty clear that Sony has a large investment in Mpeg2, including hardware based Mpeg2 encoding solutions (ASICs). It's also evident that Sony bet that Mpeg2 was good enough, and they did not want to loose their hardware investment yet. Was Don Eklund the decision maker on this? It doesn't matter, it's his job to carry the water on this bad decision, and man does he spin.

But hey, I'm sure plenty of people will tell me how BD looks nearly as good as HD-DVD now, and it really doesn't matter anyway. Perhaps someone should let Toshihiro Sakamoto know that he's wasting his time on this AVC nonsense.

[mikemorel]

Analyst: Sony Shipped Less than 175,000 PS3s in North America (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=5063)

According to research done by American Technology Research analyst Paul-Jon McNealy, Sony's launch weekend had between 125,000 to 175,000 units available for the North American market. Numbers keep going downward as time goes by...Pretty soon we'll be hitting zero. :confused:

[Richard Paul]

With all due respect Richard you don't have to do much looking on this and other forum to see that exact sentiment from BD supporters. They want BD at the expense of HD DVD. It's very clear here as well. Even you want a "victor", as I do not care if they both hang around.That is true, but I would point out that there are many HD DVD supporters on this forum who want HD DVD to win this format war. Personally I think the number of people who want one format to win is about equal for both HD formats.


But why should Fox and Universal limit themselves to one half of the market if they could make money on both sides?Well actually for Fox they believe that HD DVD is less secure which is one of the reasons they support Blu-ray. As for why Universal doesn't support Blu-ray that is a good question.


I'd like to say that it's comforting to hear a BDA member like Panasonic be honest and say that Mpeg2 is no longer the best technology available and it's time to move to new codecs.Well just to point this out but Panasonic has been a supporters of MPEG-4 AVC for a good while and they even showed it off this spring at several CE shows.

[Michael Mullis]

That is true, but I would point out that there are many HD DVD supporters on this forum who want HD DVD to win this format war. Personally I think the number of people who want one format to win is about equal for both HD formats.

I haven't though seen the same attitude one way as I have the other.


Well actually for Fox they believe that HD DVD is less secure which is one of the reasons they support Blu-ray. As for why Universal doesn't support Blu-ray that is a good question.

I can bet I know Universal's reason. Cost. Outfitting standard DVD plants for HD DVD production from everything I read wasn't that expensive. Plus, Universal right now could not put out BD's with "U-Control" because while apparently the structure for those kinds of extras and PiP stuff is standardized with HD DVD, it is not with BD. Which seems to be Warner's reason for not putting certain titles out on BD yet.

As for security, not sure what the lack of it on HD DVD is at this point. Universal, Warner, Paramount, Genius Company, and Image don't seem to really have a concern with security and CP on HD DVD. So I am not sure, simply for lack of info, what makes BD more secure.

[2Channel]

That is true, but I would point out that there are many HD DVD supporters on this forum who want HD DVD to win this format war. Personally I think the number of people who want one format to win is about equal for both HD formats.

I have to agree with Michael on this one. I believe the reason why many BD supporters are still hoping for the knock out punch is that if both formats survive (and they will) it means universal players, and that puts BD in a more difficult position than HD-DVD (replication cost of BD-50 vs. HD-DVD 30).

[b2bonez]

Fixed. ;)


Originally Posted by b2bonez -<<< this is not my quote !!!!
The only ones screaming in terror are CE companies when they price out building BD players. Once they find that BD has already been discounted to $499 at retail, they head for the hills...

b2b

Please don't edit someones post and then quote it as they had written it. I you want to joke around fine, but you don't have to stoop that low to support HD-DVD... or do you ?? :eek:

b2b

[Talkstr8t]

Warner Bros. has precisely the right attitude about this situation. Put movies on both and let the consumer decide. What I think is funny is that unlike Universal, Fox, and Disney, Warner Bros. and Paramount get to make money on both sides of the fence. Warner certainly has already begun to make money from me on the HD DVD side.So if the choice is make $0.25 on each side of the fence, or $1 on one side of the fence, which would you choose? As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format.

[Talkstr8t]

Your own number said the worst case was 125,000 PS3s - now you say the lowest worst case is 200,000?I was very clear. 125K in N America. 90K in Japan. That's over 200K.
So let's look at N. America alone - 125,000 PS3s and 10,000 BR standalone players.

Compared with 70,000 standalone HD DVD players plus 120,000 (or maybe 200,000) Xbox HD DVD players.Once again you quote this phantom 120K/200K number which has not been referenced anywhere.
But my real POINT was PROVE IT... You make a statement of fact in your signature that you cannot back up. All of our estimations are just guesses - your statement is not based on fact.Are you disputing that Sony launched with even 200K units worldwide? If so you are in a tiny minority; I haven't seen a single estimate of less than 125K in N America and 90K in Japan. Meanwhile until you reference a single official statement or industry estimate of HD-DVD add-ons, your 120K/200K figure remains purely your estimate, and a wildly improbable one at that.
I can tell you if the "needle" doesn't move significantly for Bluray movie sales in December, with all those PS3s out there, then it means that the movie attach rates for the machine are simply abysmal.I'm sure you'll come to that conclusion, and probably relay it here whenever you get the chance. Fortunately the studios have a better sense of the realities of the market and aren't going to make a snap decision based on faulty reasoning.

[Talkstr8t]

And if you own a Xbox 360, just knowing you can buy a HD add on for $199 implies that HD DVD is much more affordable than Blu-ray. This is absurd. If you own a PS3 you don't have to spend anything for Blu-ray. Or spend $35 and you'll have a remote, an HDMI cable, and fully-supported audio.

[b2bonez]

My point would be that there is no "point" to the discussion to begin with. The PS3 is a subsidized player, and that was played to significant advantage in wooing the studios to the Bluray format. Tit for tat? I think so.

Moreover, I don't see the "double-edged sword" here for HD-DVD because all the *other* manufacturer's have to do is wait until HD-DVD tech gets commoditized, and then release their own player.

Well that's the point, HD-DVD is a commoditized price for the Xbox addon. The problem is the cost to build leaves no profit to be made.

b2b

[b2bonez]

Analyst: Sony Shipped Less than 175,000 PS3s in North America (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=5063)

Numbers keep going downward as time goes by...Pretty soon we'll be hitting zero. :confused:

The only real effect that I can tell for sure about the PS3 numbers is the more they sell the louder and more pervasive the rhetoric gets from the HD-DVD crowd.

The attack-o-meter is going off the high end of scale... ;)

b2b

[mikemorel]

The only real effect that I can tell for sure about the PS3 numbers is the more they sell the louder and more pervasive the rhetoric gets from the HD-DVD crowd.

The attack-o-meter is going off the high end of scale... ;)

b2b So then you are saying as the launch numbers go down, HD DVD supporters get quieter and less pervasive? :)

[mikemorel]

Well that's the point, HD-DVD is a commoditized price for the Xbox addon. The problem is the cost to build leaves no profit to be made.

b2bb2b - who cares: a recommendation, if I may. Pick up:

XBox 360
HD-DVD add on
It comes w/KK, but pick up MI:3 as well.

You will not be disappointed.

I am in HD-DVD heaven.

[Kosty]

... As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format. The exact same argument could be made on either side.

But since Microsoft is supporting HD DVD with its Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option and Sony is supporting Blu-ray with the Blu-ray drive inserted into the PS3 the chance of both formats coexisting together for years is greatly increased.

Neither Sony nor Microsoft will give up and abandon their products anytime soon and the sales of those items will encourage studios to release in both formats.

Until that is, consumers overwhelmingly choose on side or the other, and one product or another slowly dies a painful death.

[What'sHD]

b2b - who cares: a recommendation, if I may. Pick up:

XBox 360
HD-DVD add on
It comes w/KK, but pick up MI:3 as well.

You will not be disappointed.

I am in HD-DVD heaven.
i have the 360 and am gonna follow above advice.

MI3 the movie may suck the big one but in HD, it should kick serious butt :D
Also, KK vs the T-rexs.. ahh, heaven

[Michael Mullis]

So if the choice is make $0.25 on each side of the fence, or $1 on one side of the fence, which would you choose? As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format.

That's an absolutely bogus arguement, and the video game world is exactly the example that movie studios can use. And the fact that HD DVD ran over your dog and it's "delaying" anything is bogus as well.

The fact is that when you make your product available to more than one market, you are opening up the consumer base in which your product can sell. Your .25/$1 arguement is more along the lines of .75/$1. Instead of making $1 on one side of the fence, you can make .75 on both sides, which is .50 more than if you were on one side.

Gaming companies like EA, UbiSoft, THQ, Etc: have grown leaps and bounds from even 8 years ago. None of those companies are PS3 or Xbox 360 "exclusive", yet EA is the largest game publisher on the planet.

Sorry, but you've got to come up with something better than expanding your consumer base doesn't make you money. ;)

[2Channel]

Interesting bit of news regarding the potential 1080i fix on the PS3.

http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/25/sony-retracts-1080i-fix-statement-leaving-customers-in-lurch/

According to GameDaily, Sony cannot actually confirm this issue can be fixed via a firmware patch (although they're not denying it, either), and that they are "looking into the issue and haven't stated any actions that will be taken regarding it."

[b2bonez]

b2b - who cares: a recommendation, if I may. Pick up:

XBox 360
HD-DVD add on
It comes w/KK, but pick up MI:3 as well.

You will not be disappointed.

I am in HD-DVD heaven.

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD..

b2b

[2Channel]

So if the choice is make $0.25 on each side of the fence, or $1 on one side of the fence, which would you choose? As long as there are two formats the adoption rate will greatly suffer! That is why people argue for a single format. If HD-DVD's continued existence had no bearing on my enjoyment of Blu-ray I'd be happy to keep it around, but the fact is as long as it's around it will delay or prevent the day when high-def video is the default format.

Talk, I certainly agree with your point about one format vs. two and adoption rates. If the industry really wanted to avoid this situation they should have reached a compromise before going to market. They didn't, and with that failure they guaranteed that HD disc adoption would be slow.

The mass market of consumers is afraid of picking the wrong format. So the future leaves us with one of two scenarios, either one format dies before universal players come to market or both survive long enough that universal players come to market, and the universal players remove consumer fear.

I understand your desire for HD-DVD to go away, so that we can have faster adoption with a single remaining BD format. Here's why I don't believe it will happen.

Many people have referenced VHS vs Betamax to draw analogies to this format war. The better analogy in my opinion is DVD-A vs. SACD. Both were new optical formats that offered the same form factor as their optical predecessors (CD and DVD) with enhanced music performance over previous formats. The vast majority of players that came to market were DVD/CD players that in addition supported either DVD-A or SACD. Both formats were slow to market acceptance because of the format war. In short order companies like Denon brought universal players to market. Neither format killed the other, but the CEs lost the mass market of consumers to Apple and MP3 downloads.

In the case of that format war Sony had the superior solution in SACD. The advantages of SACD were:

1. Support for hybrid discs at launch so any hybrid SACD could play in any CD or SACD player. DVD-A could only play in DVD players or DVD-A players.

2. Strong reviews in the trade rags that SACD was the superior sounding solution.

3. Broader support from record companies large and small.

Even with all of these advantages SACD could not score a knock out victory. Granted Sony made a number of mistakes, but they were far less serious than the mistakes they're making with BD. Based on this I believe there is no chance that either format exits the stage to leave a single format to move forward.

[2Channel]

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD..

b2b

Perhaps an A1? Cheaper and more available than a PS3. No games, but it will upconvert SD DVDs. ;)

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=hd-a1&btnG=Search+Froogle

This person makes some interesting comments comparing their Xbox add-on to their PS3 for HD disc playback.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8985485#post8985485

[b2bonez]

Perhaps an A1? Cheaper and more available than a PS3. No games, but it will upconvert SD DVDs. ;)

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=hd-a1&btnG=Search+Froogle

This person makes some interesting comments comparing their Xbox add-on to their PS3 for HD disc playback.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8985485#post8985485

I looked at the A1 several times... I could see a A1 in my future, a used one @ $99 when folks start unloading them to upgrade to the A2 or XA2.. Problem is finding one that doesn't suffer with all of the problems ;) (around 20% here on AVS report the skipping problem). $99 dollars is worth picking up support for Universal titles. :)

b2b

[2Channel]

I looked at the A1 several times... I could see a A1 in my future, a used one @ $99 when folks start unloading them to upgrade to the A2 or XA2.. Problem is finding one that doesn't suffer with all of the problems ;) (around 20% here on AVS report the skipping problem). $99 dollars is worth picking up support for Universal titles. :)

b2b


Is there anyone out there willing to take one for the team? It's almost worth me covering the $186 difference to try and convert you. ;)

[mikemorel]

Sorry I'll pass. A ugly, noisy game box with a another ugly box, two power bricks, a bunch of wires and two movies (KK, one that I FFed through on DVD.. MI:3, already seen on DVD ~ at best a rental).

I'm sure the PQ looks great, but the esthetics of the combo is a nada... $599 buys a PS3 with none of the downsides of the Xbox or HD-DVD.. Fair enough. :cool:

Makes me wonder once again...Why do people want single purpose next-gen DVD players? Why does anyone want a standalone CD player? It is an anachronism. People just do not know it yet.

[nataraj]

If you own a PS3 you don't have to spend anything for Blu-ray.

Isn't ps3 ownership like 20 times less than 360's ?

Ofcouse if you own HD-A1 you don't have to spend anything for HD DVD. Or for that matter if you own the samsung player you get BD for free :p

[AnthonyP]

Compared with 70,000 standalone

rdjam:

there were at most 70k that could be built. From t5hose (and what Robert said) sopme have not shipped. From the remainder some have not sold. Amnd from the beggining the 70k was not US but international (world)

[mikemorel]

This is absurd. If you own a PS3 you don't have to spend anything for Blu-ray.Fantastic Talk... PS3 users should hook up with composite and share their experiences. Kudos.

[AnthonyP]

It upsets me that some of these films are being 'dumbed-down & dithered' to 16 bit, when I personally know that the source was 24.

or a lot of BS :) have some fun, look at some f the names of I only have an add on, that you recognize as people that said they had a player a long time ago.

[AnthonyP]

With all due respect Richard you don't have to do much looking on this and other forum to see that exact sentiment from BD supporters. They want BD at the expense of HD DVD. It's very clear here as well. Even you want a "victor", as I do not care if they both hang around.

Michael Mullis: what is wrong with wanting a winner? with a winner the field becomes clean and all the "I don't want to buy a loser" people can buy into it

But why should Fox and Universal limit themselves to one half of the market if they could make money on both sides?
because right now it is costing them money instead of making money. You need millions of players to make sure titles sell in the hundreds of thousands to make money

[AnthonyP]

Neither Sony nor Microsoft will give up and abandon their products anytime soon and the sales of those items will encourage studios to release in both formats.

Kosty. It is an add-on that adds nothing to a console. It can be dropped with no repercussions. MS could stop the add-on , add a BD add-on with no problems. The only people hurt will be the people that were cheap and thought 200$ for HD disks was a good price. MS could not even be blamed for that (it is not as if they can force studios to support HD DVD)

For the PS3, it is more or less the same thing except a bit worst. (i.e. BD is still good for >10gb games so BD will still be there, but one functionality the consumer thought they were getting is no more). Here too they can add an HD DVD add on for movies. The difference is that Sony does own a studio (so the excuse that it is out of their control would not work as well) and the console manufacturing price is higher for no reason (i.e. they can’t switch to HD DVD internally because BD games are out)

[AnthonyP]

That's an absolutely bogus arguement, and the video game world is exactly the example that movie studios can use. And the fact that HD DVD ran over your dog and it's "delaying" anything is bogus as well.

they also charge a hell of a lot more per title

[g55555sim]

Talk, I certainly agree with your point about one format vs. two and adoption rates. If the industry really wanted to avoid this situation they should have reached a compromise before going to market. They didn't, and with that failure they guaranteed that HD disc adoption would be slow.

CEs consciously made the decision to start this format the war. They knew the consequences of the war. They did the counting and decided that going into this format war is cheaper than backing out when they had their chances. So should we as consumers make it easy on them? Did they take us the consumers into consideration (for our greater benefit ofcouse) when they made their decision to go to war ? :D

if they want a faster adoption of hidef, they would have all threw their support for HD DVD, its cheaper and easier to make yet have the same PQ & AQ as BD. cheaper = faster for consumers to adopt.

So i say, let them suffer !! :D

[nilsp]

I have to agree with Michael on this one. I believe the reason why many BD supporters are still hoping for the knock out punch is that if both formats survive (and they will) it means universal players, and that puts BD in a more difficult position than HD-DVD (replication cost of BD-50 vs. HD-DVD 30).
Well, I disagree. There are at least as many vocal HD DVD fanatics as there are Blu-ray fanatics on this forum. Just count those who post links to anything not good for Blu-ray... I mean ANYTHING...

And you're way off on the reason! I'd love universal players, I expect Pioneer to one of the first ones releasing one. But before someone heralds the universal player are the saviour of HD DVD, a couple of questions:

a) When do you think these players will be available?
b) At what price point will they be then?

a) It won't be this April and b) it won't be $300. I'm thinking next fall and at $999 at the cheapest. What does the market look like for Blu-ray and HD DVD by fall 2007? I think millions of PS3s will have been sold, 2nd gen Blu-ray players at lower prices are out and tons of Blu-ray titles will have been released (and replication cost has decreased on both sides, probably more on the Blu-ray side).

OK, so then universal players are released. Now the Blu-ray exclusive studios should suddenly start thinking: "Well, now it doesn't matter what format we support, so we'd just as well switch to HD DVD!" Huh? Anyone but me see something wrong with that statement?

[b2bonez]

Is there anyone out there willing to take one for the team? It's almost worth me covering the $186 difference to try and convert you. ;)

If I found a reasonable deal to rent a player that would be fine by me.. ;)

b2b

[nilsp]

CEs consciously made the decision to start this format the war. They knew the consequences of the war. They did the counting and decided that going into this format war is cheaper than backing out when they had their chances. So should we as consumers make it easy on them? Did they take us the consumers into consideration (for our greater benefit ofcouse) when they made their decision to go to war ? :D

Who really started the war? Toshiba for not wanting to give up on their royalty scheme or the "other" CE's for not wanting to do what Toshiba wanted to do? I guess it depends which "side" you are on...

[nilsp]

I can bet I know Universal's reason. Cost. Outfitting standard DVD plants for HD DVD production from everything I read wasn't that expensive. Plus, Universal right now could not put out BD's with "U-Control" because while apparently the structure for those kinds of extras and PiP stuff is standardized with HD DVD, it is not with BD. Which seems to be Warner's reason for not putting certain titles out on BD yet.
It's more than that, for sure. (BTW, Universal never outfitted any plant with gear, they just buy the service, AFAIK.) Look at the dealings between Microsoft, Toshiba and Universal. Don't you think it is a tiny bit weird, that Universal (and JUST Universal, no other recording studio) is getting money from Microsoft on ALL Zunes being sold (made by Toshiba)? Why would Microsoft agree to such a deal? Why? (Why not Sony(!), Warner, EMI or Bertelsman too?) Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I just think it is less than a coincidence.

As for security, not sure what the lack of it on HD DVD is at this point. Universal, Warner, Paramount, Genius Company, and Image don't seem to really have a concern with security and CP on HD DVD. So I am not sure, simply for lack of info, what makes BD more secure.

BD is more secure due to BD+, a much hated feature, especially by MS. In fact, IIRC it was their main reason for saying they won't support it in their OS's. We're still early in the HD content game. I'd say the chances for hacking just AACS is higher than AACS and BD+. What happens when DVD Jon decides to make HD content freely available and hacks AACS? Then HD DVD is hacked and Blu-ray is still secure. What then? (OK, I know it will be a while, AACS isn't easily hacked, but to say it is foolproof is optimistic. Of course, the same is true for BD+, but it will most likely take even longer.) We'll see.

What would happen to HD DVD vs. Blu-ray support if HD DVD is hacked next summer?

[nilsp]

Interesting discussion over in the Insider thread. Is there a sound issue with the Xbox 360 HD DVD add on? (Soundtracks sounding flat.) More investigation is to be performed, so we'll know soon. If there is an issue, can it be fixed with a firmware/dashboard update?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8992354&&#post8992354

[2Channel]

Well, I disagree. There are at least as many vocal HD DVD fanatics as there are Blu-ray fanatics on this forum. Just count those who post links to anything not good for Blu-ray... I mean ANYTHING...

And you're way off on the reason! I'd love universal players, I expect Pioneer to one of the first ones releasing one. But before someone heralds the universal player are the saviour of HD DVD, a couple of questions:

a) When do you think these players will be available?
b) At what price point will they be then?

a) It won't be this April and b) it won't be $300. I'm thinking next fall and at $999 at the cheapest. What does the market look like for Blu-ray and HD DVD by fall 2007? I think millions of PS3s will have been sold, 2nd gen Blu-ray players at lower prices are out and tons of Blu-ray titles will have been released (and replication cost has decreased on both sides, probably more on the Blu-ray side).

OK, so then universal players are released. Now the Blu-ray exclusive studios should suddenly start thinking: "Well, now it doesn't matter what format we support, so we'd just as well switch to HD DVD!" Huh? Anyone but me see something wrong with that statement?


I stand corrected then. :)

As for your questions.

a) 11/07
b) $999 (we agree on this one)

When will see a $300 universal player? Probably 11/08. I don't expect there to be some fast move from SD DVD to new formats. This will play out over many years. SD DVD will continue to dominate for years. The installed base is huge, as is the installed based for SD Televisions. Keep in mind most people don't own HD TVs. They own SD TVs with SD DVD players. I believe the majority of these people will make the jump to HD over the next 5-7 years. Universal players shipping within a year of PS3 is a small window when you look at the big picture.

So if the majority of consumers are on the side lines, and those consumers won't be diving into these new products for another couple of years, neither side can gain true dominance, and neither side will give up. As consumers enter the market and do research over the next few years, most will learn that they don't need to pick a format, they can have both. Most consumers faced with a choice between two formats today walk away. If a universal player is on the shelves, even at $2,000, most will stay with SD DVD and wait for the cost of universal players to come down before jumping in. Even the least savy consumers have learned about pricing patterns in technology life cycles.

In regards to PS3, yes it will sell millions of units by 11/07, but they will be purchased primarily by people who want a game system, not people looking for a BD player. The BD exclusive studios may continue to stay with BD, and if they can truly get the costs down and work out hybrids, they may continue to stay in that format. Now if your Warner, you're not going to want to continue to do dual release of titles if it's not really necessary any longer.

I believe both formats will survive. Sony pictures will always use BD. In the long run, we may see BD become more popular because of the increased storage capacity per layer. In the near term, I believe HD-DVD would prosper because it's easier and cheaper to ramp up to the large production levels studios will need, and the hybrid technology is already worked out to offer a seamless transtion at the retail level.

[2Channel]

Interesting discussion over in the Insider thread. Is there a sound issue with the Xbox 360 HD DVD add on? (Soundtracks sounding flat.) More investigation is to be performed, so we'll know soon. If there is an issue, can it be fixed with a firmware/dashboard update?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8992354&&#post8992354

FilmMixer does soundtrack work professionally. I thought his explanation on this was pretty clear. There's nothing to fix.

Quote from FilmMixer

Every disc that I have heard on my system has had a noticeable improvemen in sound quality over their SD counterparts... including the films I have mixed personally.. I have been listening to most titles on an Anthem D2 using PCM from the A1..... there is nothing wrong with the discs... DANSK was speaking in generalities and was taking about thinkgs that I felt were too nebulous to lead to answers.. hence the reason I asked what connections, etc... But saying that some parts of a mix don't sound as good as others is like saying some parts of a movie have pretty scenery to look at part of the time and drab interiors the next... every movie is dynamic, so how can that be a format or hardware problem..

[Talkstr8t]

That's an absolutely bogus arguement, and the video game world is exactly the example that movie studios can use.I'm sorry you disagree, but many analysts have estimated that as long as there are two formats in the marketplace total sales will be 1/2 of what either format would have seen had the battle been resolved to a single format. It should be easy to find such references with a bit of Google help.
Your .25/$1 arguement is more along the lines of .75/$1. Instead of making $1 on one side of the fence, you can make .75 on both sides, which is .50 more than if you were on one side.Right now it's more like lose $3/title in one format, or lose $6/title for both formats, since volumes are far too low for profit. With volume comes profits; as long as critical mass isn't reached, the studios will lose more by supporting both formats. Further, since supporting both formats means delaying overall consumer adoption, doing so delays profitability regardless of whether supporting one format or both.

I agree that the game market supports multiple consoles. Historically it has always done so, and the consoles tend to segment themselves demographically. It's a different analogy, however. For the most part game titles are created exclusively for game consoles. If a brand new console launches with suitably compelling content it may do well. High-def DVD players require content which for the most part is coming from movie theatres or television series. Both formats are targeting the same demographics (A/V enthusiasts). There is far less differentiation between the formats than there is between rival game consoles, so consumers' fear of begin stuck with a losing format is a significant de-motivator.

[b2bonez]

I stand corrected then. :)

As for your questions.

a) 11/07
b) $999 (we agree on this one)

When will see a $300 universal player? Probably 11/08. I don't expect there to be some fast move from SD DVD to new formats. This will play out over many years. SD DVD will continue to dominate for years. The installed base is huge, as is the installed based for SD Televisions. Keep in mind most people don't own HD TVs. They own SD TVs with SD DVD players. I believe the majority of these people will make the jump to HD over the next 5-7 years. Universal players shipping within a year of PS3 is a small window when you look at the big picture.

So if the majority of consumers are on the side lines, and those consumers won't be diving into these new products for another couple of years, neither side can gain true dominance, and neither side will give up. As consumers enter the market and do research over the next few years, most will learn that they don't need to pick a format, they can have both. Most consumers faced with a choice between two formats today walk away. If a universal player is on the shelves, even at $2,000, most will stay with SD DVD and wait for the cost of universal players to come down before jumping in. Even the least savy consumers have learned about pricing patterns in technology life cycles.

In regards to PS3, yes it will sell millions of units by 11/07, but they will be purchased primarily by people who want a game system, not people looking for a BD player. The BD exclusive studios may continue to stay with BD, and if they can truly get the costs down and work out hybrids, they may continue to stay in that format. Now if your Warner, you're not going to want to continue to do dual release of titles if it's not really necessary any longer.

I believe both formats will survive. Sony pictures will always use BD. In the long run, we may see BD become more popular because of the increased storage capacity per layer. In the near term, I believe HD-DVD would prosper because it's easier and cheaper to ramp up to the large production levels studios will need, and the hybrid technology is already worked out to offer a seamless transtion at the retail level.

Seems that the only place that really works for hybrid is the rental space and even that has problems with people putting the discs in wrong way up. The majority of comments here on AVS have been less than happy with the extra $5 dollars for a hybrid disc. Plus too the replication costs and cycle times are weak compared to HD-DVD DL 30GB.

b2b

[Talkstr8t]

FilmMixer does soundtrack work professionally. I thought his explanation on this was pretty clear. There's nothing to fix.

You left out the rest of his post:

Quote from FilmMixer

It does indeed seem that a lot of people are having issues with the add on in their setup.. And some people seem to claim that there are some settings in the 360 dashboard that helps the issue.. I am not using my Add-On in my theater, and I don't have a standalone player since I've sold my A1 in anticipation of the upcoming A2... until then, I cannot do an A-B, level matched comparison to see what the re-encodes are doing on each platform..

I can only assume that Amir has been in touch with the Add-On team at Microsoft regarding this possible issue, and if something isn't up to snuff, they will let us know.

It certainly sounds like he does agree there seems to be a problem.

[b2bonez]

Best mainstream article I've seen summing up where the "war" stands..
"It's too early to know which one to go with," said Sardo, 28, after browsing a Fairfax, Va., store for a next-generation DVD player to go with his new 42-inch high-definition television. "It's like betting on which team will win the Super Bowl before pre-season games start."

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2006/Nov/26/bz/FP611260309.html

b2b

[g55555sim]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

This poll of AVS members clearly indicates that new people are buying the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option and that the numbers of previous HD DVD owners buying one is relatively small.

BTW 476 is a nice large number for a poll here on AVS. That's indicative of a large demand.

hmm the last count was 582 units ! :D

[2Channel]

Seems that the only place that really works for hybrid is the rental space and even that has problems with people putting the discs in wrong way up. The majority of comments here on AVS have been less than happy with the extra $5 dollars for a hybrid disc. Plus too the replication costs and cycle times are weak compared to HD-DVD DL 30GB.

b2b

So are you saying that the industry sees no value in hybrid discs?

If so, can you explain why BD is trying to develop a hybrid disc?

[2Channel]

You left out the rest of his post:

Quote from FilmMixer

It does indeed seem that a lot of people are having issues with the add on in their setup.. And some people seem to claim that there are some settings in the 360 dashboard that helps the issue.. I am not using my Add-On in my theater, and I don't have a standalone player since I've sold my A1 in anticipation of the upcoming A2... until then, I cannot do an A-B, level matched comparison to see what the re-encodes are doing on each platform..

I can only assume that Amir has been in touch with the Add-On team at Microsoft regarding this possible issue, and if something isn't up to snuff, they will let us know.

It certainly sounds like he does agree there seems to be a problem.

I apologize Talk, that was my mistake. Nilsp was clearly talking about an issue with the add-on player as opposed to a problem with the discs themselves. FilmMixer was saying the discs are fine (the quote I pulled), but perhaps there's an issue with the add-on player (the quote you pulled). You are correct.

[b2bonez]

So are you saying that the industry sees no value in hybrid discs?

If so, can you explain why BD is trying to develop a hybrid disc?

I read one comment from the HD-DVD side that all discs would have been hybrid, but there isn't enough replication equipment to do it on. The industry seems quite happy with it, it's the customers that don't seem too keen on hybrids.

BD did prototypes, but it was the same story as the single sided HD-DVD hybrid.. compatability with millions of crappy DVD players.

b2b

[b2bonez]

Hmm.. The Washington Post article is making the rounds... Now a Florida paper.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061125/BUSINESS/611250319

Millions are going to read this and go ""oh well.... guess we can wait a while for the dust to settle..."

b2b

[onanie]

BD is more secure due to BD+, a much hated feature, especially by MS. In fact, IIRC it was their main reason for saying they won't support it in their OS's. We're still early in the HD content game. I'd say the chances for hacking just AACS is higher than AACS and BD+. What happens when DVD Jon decides to make HD content freely available and hacks AACS? Then HD DVD is hacked and Blu-ray is still secure. What then? (OK, I know it will be a while, AACS isn't easily hacked, but to say it is foolproof is optimistic. Of course, the same is true for BD+, but it will most likely take even longer.) We'll see.

What would happen to HD DVD vs. Blu-ray support if HD DVD is hacked next summer?

To my impression, the only thing that AACS does as an end result was player revocation, as a deterrant for non-compliant/sloppy hardware makers. Is there any reason why any HD DVD player (par refusing to play HD DVD-r's) can't play a duplicated HD DVD disc (along with its AACS shell)? Just curious.

[2Channel]

Hmm.. The Washington Post article is making the rounds... Now a Florida paper.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061125/BUSINESS/611250319

Millions are going to read this and go ""oh well.... guess we can wait a while for the dust to settle..."

b2b

Let's hope things don't shift to downloads while this all plays out. If Apple ships a cute white box for the living room that connects to iTunes for movie downloads I'm going to be completely depressed. :(

[2Channel]

Oh no.....

http://www.engadgethd.com/2006/11/26/mytvpal-launching-1080p-vod-service-next-week/

At least it's not Apple with their cute white boxes.

This is starting to feel like SACD vs. DVD-A all over again.

[heavyharmonies]

Let's hope things don't shift to downloads while this all plays out. If Apple ships a cute white box for the living room that connects to iTunes for movie downloads I'm going to be completely depressed. :(

While I would hate to see that happen, I don't think there's enough bandwidth to stream artifact-free HD in real time to a large user base.

[2Channel]

While I would hate to see that happen, I don't think there's enough bandwidth to stream artifact-free HD in real time to a large user base.

I don't believe real time streaming is required for this type of service to succeed. Netflix makes you wait to get your movie, but they still stole many of Blockbusters customers.

With Netflix you have to wait a couple of days, but the selection is huge, the cost is good and no late fees. If a download service could deliver your movie in less than 24 hours and let you hold it on your hard disc until after you've finished watching it, it could succeed. Cost of service delivery would be less than Netflix but selection is still probably the biggest challenge right now. My guess is the studios will embrace it if they felt comfortable with the security used.

[NV5655]

Personally, I'd be happy if the Hollywood Studios would just forget about all this copy protection shiat and be done with it all. Create a Hybrid Player, keep your formats and your greedy patents. Release both and make all consumers happy.

Charge people 5$'s to make one copy that can't be transfered, and $5's extra for additional copies, wether it be to a media streamer, extra PC, Portable Ipod, etc. For those with high speed fios like services, create a Video on Demand service.

EVERYONE will be happy so long as the studios don't get greedy and try to raise their prices...

[b2bonez]

Personally, I'd be happy if the Hollywood Studios would just forget about all this copy protection shiat and be done with it all. Create a Hybrid Player, keep your formats and your greedy patents. Release both and make all consumers happy.

Charge people 5$'s to make one copy that can't be transfered, and $5's extra for additional copies, wether it be to a media streamer, extra PC, Portable Ipod, etc. For those with high speed fios like services, create a Video on Demand service.

EVERYONE will be happy so long as the studios don't get greedy and try to raise their prices...

That would be hoping for a miracle.. "Happy Feet", "Casino Royale".... local theater admission price $9.25 :eek:

b2b

[heavyharmonies]

That would be hoping for a miracle.. "Happy Feet", "Casino Royale".... local theater admission price $9.25 :eek:

b2b


No doubt. By the time you spring for popcorn and a drink, you've just paid for the HD-DVD or BR...

Add into the equation screaming babies, whining children, chatty teenagers, and ringing cellphones, and I really don't miss the theater at all any more.

[NV5655]

The only time I've been in the theater in the last ten years,