HiDef DVD News VII - News Only : AND WE MEAN IT: NEWS ONLY [Text View] - Page 5

Michael Mullis

11-30-06, 10:07 PM

Ummm, this is the same site that had this article:

http://www.bbspot.com/News/2005/03/mpaa_piracy.html

MPAA to Thwart Pirates
By Making All Movies Suck
By G. Lloyd Girty

Los Angeles, CA - Motion Picture Association of America President and CEO Dan Glickman announced a bold new strategy to combat the "pernicious effects of piracy". After many failures to stop piracy by technological and litigious means, Hollywood will rely on psychological tactics to thwart would-be file-swappers by making only movies that suck.

So I'm not fearing the MPAA at this point.

Richard Paul

11-30-06, 10:10 PM

Really? This is the Samsung Richard. Remember, the player that launched the format? Seems like they would want to appease those early adopters who suffered through some bad early releases.I am just saying that Fox might have tested out their discs with some other player than the Samsung. Also from the sounds of it Speed is working fine on the other Blu-ray players it has been tried on and even some Samsung owners have gotten it to work.

True. I'm wondering if it might be BD+ related, being a Fox title and all...Well considering the number of other Fox titles doing well with the Samsung I think it would be jumping the gun a bit to assume it is related to BD+.

nilsp

12-01-06, 02:29 AM

It is true that a few posters did. Also just to point this out but I already see some people who supported firmware updates for the HD-A1 starting to make negative remarks about the firmware updates for the PS3. Just to be clear but this is not aimed at you, but if you look closely there are a few posters on this forum doing that.

True. I would claim there is a difference between updating a CE player that has one task, "just play the &%"¤# movie" and updating a multi-purpose machine by adding additional features etc.

The A1 was released too early, in my opinion, it should have been more mature. But I understand the reasoning behind it, timing etc., so with a few updates it seems to be doing better now. Fine. (That said, the Samsung maybe should not have been released at all... ;))

Now, the PS3 will have continuous updates and I think it is great. It now does what it is supposed to do, it plays movies and games. Adding features to it just adds to the value of the money already spent. If even half of what was said yesterday of the planned updates are true, I'm extatic! If I were to guess, there's probably even more planned down the pipeline. Bring it on! Firmware updates on my PSP have been great, and I'm glad they continue that tradition. (Just like M$ update the firmware/dashboard etc. on the Xbox360)

2Channel

12-01-06, 02:35 AM

Ummm, this is the same site that had this article:

http://www.bbspot.com/News/2005/03/mpaa_piracy.html

So I'm not fearing the MPAA at this point.

That's good....but this is my favorite ;)

Sony Unveils New Self-Destructive DVD Player
http://www.bbspot.com/News/2003/05/self_destruct.html

mikemorel

12-01-06, 07:21 AM

PlayStation 3 sales drop sharply on low supply (http://www.infoworld.nl/idgns/bericht.phtml?id=002570DE00740E1800257237000DF3D8)

Sales of the PlayStation 3 console during its first full week of availability in Japan were sharply lower than those during the two days immediately following its launch, according to estimates published this week.

During the seven days from Nov. 13 to Nov. 19, there were 43,378 of the consoles sold in Japan compared with 88,400 sold on Nov. 11 and Nov. 12, according to figures published by Enterbrain Inc. Friday. The company publishes local gaming magazine Famitsu and its figures are generally regarded in the industry as reliable.

Another local market data supplier, Media Create Co. Ltd., estimated sales in the first full week at 42,099 units and said they dropped further to 32,622 units in the week from Nov. 20 to Nov. 27. Media Create earlier estimated launch weekend shipments were 81,693 units.
...Shipments are dropping significantly in Japan.

BenDover

12-01-06, 07:36 AM

PlayStation 3 sales drop sharply on low supply (http://www.infoworld.nl/idgns/bericht.phtml?id=002570DE00740E1800257237000DF3D8)

Shipments are dropping significantly in Japan.

ummm, wouldn't we need to know if there were actually more than the number sold available for sale to conclude that sales are down :D

scaesare

12-01-06, 10:01 AM

Just to point this out... the news posted a few pages back by KLee is fantastic if accurate (it is a translation afterall) however, it's funny that the usual dissection has not yet occurred.

@ scaesare (Steve), the BD drive in the PS3 is 2X as opposed to 1.5X in standalones. But 1.5 times of 1.5X speed is 2.25X speed. So for a PS3 to be able to comfortably play any and all streams at max bandwidth at 1.5X speed, the drive would need to be a bit faster, not sure how the PS3 buffers data but I think it would be safe to say that the 2X should be enough to not be a talking point since people won't be watching at 1.5X anyway.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

Thanks for that. I didn't know it was a 2x drive in there.

scaesare

12-01-06, 10:05 AM

We're in "phase one" of HD on shiny disc.. all technology has a limited life span. HD-DVD just made an unfortunate decision to get a head start (April 2006) by selling a 2 year old player design that forces a compliance level back to 2004. That is most evident in their clinging to 29.97 as their "encoded frame rate" for 24fps film material that is stored on the discs as flagged content.

b2b

You do know that means: 24p stored on the disc with flags to tell the decoder how often to repeat for output to a 60i device.

Nothing antique about this.

amillians

12-01-06, 10:16 AM

36th DVD Forum SC Results:

http://www.dvdforum.org/36scmtg-resolution.htm

HD DVD-RW plods forward. File system books get revised.

What's interesting (disturbing) is that most of the talk was about "fixing" CSS to support BOD* DVDs (e.g., via kiosks) with appropriate CP protection. Apparently the studios are really excited about BOD DVD right now--talk of this new product started some time back, but things are progressing forward very quickly. The WG showed decent results from SL DVD tests on legacy equipment; DL tests, not so good, so more work is needed there. Naturally, some legacy DVD players won't be able to play either of the new BOD DVD flavors.

* BOD = Burn-on-Demand. I just made it up. I'm a marketing genius. Unless someone else thought of it first, in which case I'll still take credit, 'cause hey, I'm American.

SamwisetheBrave

12-01-06, 10:44 AM

Grubert

12-01-06, 10:51 AM

36th DVD Forum SC Results:

http://www.dvdforum.org/36scmtg-resolution.htm

HD DVD-RW plods forward. File system books get revised.

...and region coding was not adopted for HD DVD yet. :D

Kosty

12-01-06, 10:53 AM

...and region coding was not adopted for HD DVD yet. :D Nor Triple Layer 45GB discs

WayneL

12-01-06, 11:14 AM

* BOD = Burn-on-Demand. I just made it up. I'm a marketing genius. Unless someone else thought of it first, in which case I'll still take credit, 'cause hey, I'm American.
DOD Disk-on-Demand is better, because I just thought of it :p

mikey p

12-01-06, 12:24 PM

Shipments are dropping significantly in Japan.

And, what' your point?

b2bonez

12-01-06, 01:03 PM

Nor Triple Layer 45GB discs

How about native 24p passthru support ??

b2b

lymzy

12-01-06, 01:17 PM

How about native 24p passthru support ??

b2b

Additional feature for the player doesn't need a vote, does it? Do you need vote for 1080p60 output for XA2?

jsl_80

12-01-06, 01:19 PM

DL tests, not so good, so more work is needed there.

Not surprising as the whole DVD-R DL format is b0rked. I guess they need to turn to Philips and ask for permission to use the non-DVD Forum DVD+R DL format instead :p

orogogus

12-01-06, 01:32 PM

Even worse news...

http://www.bbspot.com/News/2006/11/home-theater-regulations.html

"Just because you buy a DVD to watch at home doesn't give you the right to invite friends over to watch it too. That's a violation of copyright and denies us the revenue that would be generated from DVD sales to your friends" said Glickman"

What next? MMC is dependent on how many people in the household??? This is utter rubbish and I can't believe this person is even saying that. I suppose they can't have family because I'd love to see how they are for buying 5 copies of Ice Age 2 for each of their kids.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

Wow, just wow. They pay people at the MPAA to come up with this kind of tripe?

When I read the article I found myself checking the date thinking ,'is it April 1st already?' because I had a hard time believing what I was reading was actually serious. Biometric sensors in equipment to track the number of viewers? Seriously... ROFLMAO. May the RIAA and the MPAA both die a horrible death.

Edit- satire site! Got me, but it is telling that I wouldn't consider this out of line for the MPAA to try to pull off!

b2bonez

12-01-06, 01:44 PM

Additional feature for the player doesn't need a vote, does it? Do you need vote for 1080p60 output for XA2?

There you are... :) Wasn't this the meeting that the whole issue of 24p was going to be resolved in the HD-DVD spec. ??

Once the 60i signal comes out of the HD-DVD spec controlled portion of the player then you can do any kind of processing you want. They could add in a HQV chip and have a full blown video processor if they want to. They are using some kind of deinterlacing process/chip to get 1080p60 for sure.

b2b

mikemorel

12-01-06, 01:47 PM

And, what' your point?IMO, declining shipments in Japan probably mean declining shipments in the US, which in turn means 4 million no, 2 million no, 1 million PS3s shipped by end of year might not be doable. Which, my guess is not what blu-ray backing studios want to hear.

From VB on October 26 (http://www.videobusiness.com/blog/1730000173/post/1560005156.html)

Pioneer Electronics VP Andy Parsons, also with the Blu-ray Disc Association, speaking on a high-def DVD panel said that the delay of PS3 hasn't made a difference in the format's launch. I've spoken to several Blu-ray studio backers unhappy with the delays who I'd be willing to bet would disagree with that. Just not on the record, of course...

2Channel

12-01-06, 01:48 PM

ummm, wouldn't we need to know if there were actually more than the number sold available for sale to conclude that sales are down :D

Dropping sales is different from dropping demand. If supply of players was ramping and sales of players was dropping that would indicate dropping demand. Dropping sales can also be due to the manufacturer running into problems making the product. Very likely in this case. Like I've said before, if you can't make the PS3 in quantity, it looses by default.

If the 360 add-on sells well and the PS3 supply problems continues into January and February, what will the studios think? Do they come back to this and say that based on what Sony had promissed for PS3 volumes BD was the right choice, but they've let us down and we need to revisit our earlier decision to back one format?

b2bonez

12-01-06, 02:00 PM

IMO, declining shipments in Japan probably mean declining shipments in the US, which in turn means 4 million no, 2 million no, 1 million PS3s shipped by end of year might not be doable. Which, my guess is not what blu-ray backing studios want to hear.

From VB on October 26 (http://www.videobusiness.com/blog/1730000173/post/1560005156.html)

I wonder what the studios think of HD-DVD (Toshiba) falling flat on it's face with none of the new (new as in "new" models - don't want to get accused of making misleading comments, but that's another story.. ;) ) standalone players being available during the critical holiday shopping period ??

They are over arguing in the BD forum about which of the six BD players is the best. An embarrassment of BD player riches for sure.. :)

Right now I would say the both camps have delivered everything they respectively have to offer at this time and the ball is back in the studios side of the court to start pumping out the HD titles (and HD before the DVD release of new titles). No one (in normal consumer space) is going to buy expensive HW to stare at blank screens and retread releases for the "next big thing".

b2b

BenDover

12-01-06, 02:11 PM

kdragon

12-01-06, 02:16 PM

There you are... :) Wasn't this the meeting that the whole issue of 24p was going to be resolved in the HD-DVD spec. ??

Once the 60i signal comes out of the HD-DVD spec controlled portion of the player then you can do any kind of processing you want. They could add in a HQV chip and have a full blown video processor if they want to. They are using some kind of deinterlacing process/chip to get 1080p60 for sure.

b2bI am not sure if CE players can legitimately (i.e., in a compliant way) ignore the flags after the decode phase until they change the HD-DVD spec. However, even assuming the player ignores the flags to keep 24p native, this becomes more complex once you add PiP into the picture (pun intended). HD-DVD doesn't require frame rates to match for the main feature and PiP secondary feature. I have a feeling that current secondary streams are 30i. (can anyone confirm this?) That means it is not so straight forward to get 24p pass-through. Post-processed 24p, yes, but not pass-through. I will take back my words once I see pass-through 24p HD-DVD CE player, but until then I am (optimistic but) skeptical. They have already done that for PC, so it is not impossible.

But aren't we supposed to look at only the present? Only BD is allowed to promise the future! :D

[Kidding aside, I think it will happen, but just don't think it is easy in HD-DVD]

b2bonez

12-01-06, 02:17 PM

HD DVD spec doesn't mandate/require 60i out...please stop trying to spread FUD...did you forget your own "FUD for idiots" post already ;)

Then what does it require ??

b2b

kdragon

12-01-06, 02:20 PM

HD DVD spec doesn't mandate/require 60i out...please stop trying to spread FUD...did you forget your own "FUD for idiots" post already ;)Ben, 60i output is not mandated, of course, but I am not sure the player can ignore the flags as per specs. That's the reason I think post-processed 24p is more likely than pass-through 24p. They can if they decide to, but not per spec. I will have to check the old posts again to refresh myself.

b2bonez

12-01-06, 02:24 PM

I am not sure if CE players can legitimately (i.e., in a compliant way) ignore the flags after the decode phase until they change the HD-DVD spec. However, even assuming the player ignores the flags to keep 24p native, this becomes more complex once you add PiP into the picture (pun intended). HD-DVD doesn't require frame rates to match for the main feature and PiP secondary feature. I have a feeling that current secondary streams are 30i. (can anyone confirm this?) That means it is not so straight forward to get 24p pass-through. Post-processed 24p, yes, but not pass-through. I will take back my words once I see pass-through 24p HD-DVD CE player, but until then I am (optimistic but) skeptical. They have already done that for PC, so it is not impossible.

But aren't we supposed to look at only the present? Only BD is allowed to promise the future! :D

[Kidding aside, I think it will happen, but just don't think it is easy in HD-DVD]

My understanding is that the flags must be ignored before the decode phase.. But you're right, until they actually produce players it's a moot issue.

b2b

kdragon

12-01-06, 02:42 PM

My understanding is that the flags must be ignored before the decode phase.. But you're right, until they actually produce players it's a moot issue.

b2bMy definition of decode phase is seemingly slightly different (2-step vs 1-step), but we are saying the same thing (i.e., whether the final decoder output -- not player output -- of primary stream is 60i or 24p).

BenDover

12-01-06, 02:54 PM

the decoder, at least for avc and vc-1, doesn't use the flags you speak of for decoding the video; the decoder is responsible for merely extracting these flags/metadata/"side information" and passing it to the "display process" ... those are the terms from the avc/vc-1 standards so please, b2b, let's not get into that again ;)

can a particular company come up with a piece of silicon that incorporates the decode process and the display process (e.g., broadcom) and which also uses the flags to create 60i, sure, but that is not the same as the hd dvd standard requiring such behavior.

the hd dvd standard, at least from the publicly available, outdated, versions we've seen, requires that video, when encoded for a 60hz region, must include these flags so that they can properly be displayed on sets which operate at 60i...this is a GOOD thing that the flags are required...and this is why we, or at least on my setup, get such excellent results on our 1080p sets (which don't actually accept 1080p signals but display 1080p)

b2bonez

12-01-06, 03:04 PM

the decoder, at least for avc and vc-1, doesn't use the flags you speak of for decoding the video; the decoder is responsible for merely extracting these flags/metadata/"side information" and passing it to the "display process" ... those are the terms from the avc/vc-1 standards so please, b2b, let's not get into that again ;)

can a particular company come up with a piece of silicon that incorporates the decode process and the display process (e.g., broadcom) and which also uses the flags to create 60i, sure, but that is not the same as the hd dvd standard requiring such behavior.

I agree.. Until HD-DVD players start doing something different than what they are doing now and with nothing to look at (as far as documentation) 24p output is a dead issue for HD-DVD until it is done.

b2b

BenDover

12-01-06, 03:07 PM

I agree.. Until HD-DVD players start doing something different than what they are doing now and with nothing to look at (as far as documentation) 24p output is a dead issue for HD-DVD until it is done.

b2b

nice of you to agree to something i didn't exactly say but that is the art of spin which you have given a whole new meaing to...i say that in a nice way ;)

but anywho, what i'm interested in is your state of mind with respect to the non-availability of ANY BD Standards documentation...you have to go through a very involved process just to be entitled to BUY the documentation and then ONLY if you sign a restrictive Confidentiality agreement :confused:

b2bonez

12-01-06, 03:12 PM

the hd dvd standard, at least from the publicly available, outdated, versions we've seen, requires that video, when encoded for a 60hz region, must include these flags so that they can properly be displayed on sets which operate at 60i...this is a GOOD thing that the flags are required...and this is why we, or at least on my setup, get such excellent results on our 1080p sets (which don't actually accept 1080p signals but display 1080p)

Does your set do both quality deinterlacing and IVTC for film material ?? In reality most displays are progressive by nature (LCD.. etc.).

b2b

b2bonez

12-01-06, 03:20 PM

nice of you to agree to something i didn't exactly say but that is the art of spin which you have given a whole new meaing to...i say that in a nice way ;)

but anywho, what i'm interested in is your state of mind with respect to the non-availability of ANY BD Standards documentation...you have to go through a very involved process just to be entitled to BUY the documentation and then ONLY if you sign a restrictive Confidentiality agreement :confused:

If I'm not mistaken that is the same for both HD-DVD & BD. To get the "official" real-deal copies of the docs (or books) requires payment and signing legal paper. But both offer a wealth of white papers and other info to the general public. I have downloaded many of those BD docs without even a requirement of a simple registration process.

b2b

BenDover

12-01-06, 03:27 PM

Does your set do both quality deinterlacing and IVTC for film material ?? In reality most displays are progressive by nature (LCD.. etc.).

b2b

i believe so, i have the qualia 006...

but if not, the set i ordered does...pioneer pro-fhd1 :D

BenDover

12-01-06, 03:29 PM

If I'm not mistaken that is the same for both HD-DVD & BD. To get the "official" real-deal copies of the docs (or books) requires payment and signing legal paper. But both offer a wealth of white papers and other info to the general public. I have downloaded many of those BD docs without even a requirement of a simple registration process.

b2b

yes, it does seem as though hd dvd requires a cda as well...

b2bonez

12-01-06, 03:48 PM

to my knowledge the hd dvd standard books aren't/weren't confidential, but i could be wrong...i KNOW that it is true for the BD books ...

Edit: yes, it does seem as though hd dvd requires a cda as well...

NDA is specified in the DVD "License". I would post a quote, but the PDF is PW protected.. ;)

http://www.dvdfllc.co.jp/pdf/NewLicense.pdf

b2b

kdragon

12-01-06, 03:57 PM

...{} the set i ordered {}...pioneer pro-fhd1 :DLucky you! In more sense than one!

BenDover

12-01-06, 04:26 PM

I'm curious to see what is inside of Sony's standalone player and to get some insight into what future upgrades/enhancements may be in the cards for this player...

Anyone have a link?

2Channel

12-01-06, 04:37 PM

I agree.. Until HD-DVD players start doing something different than what they are doing now and with nothing to look at (as far as documentation) 24p output is a dead issue for HD-DVD until it is done.

b2b

I would expect no less from the person who wrote the guide to FUD. ;)

On a serious note, I had a chance to meet and talk to Amir and Kevin last night in San Francisco along with a number of other AVS people. This is the 8th demo that Amir has put on for AVS members around the country. I took a photo of their traveling HD-DVD demo truck. Inside they have an 8' wide projection screen with a Marantz single chip 1080p dark chip DLP projector.

They will be there again tonight. If you're in the area (or they come to your area in the future), I'd certainly try to reserve a seat to get in. You can talk to Amir in person about the issue of 1080p24 playback on HD-DVD. Amir is candid in his discussion and is willing to answer a lot of questions.

I have a much better understanding now of why the HD-DVD launch titles looked so good out of the gate. These things don't just happen by accident. In the demo material they displayed I also noticed that later releases are looking even better than the earlier releases.

Because Microsoft has taken a software aproach to VC-1 encoding, they continue to improve the tools on a constant basis. VC-1 just keeps getting better.

BenDover

12-01-06, 04:56 PM

Hmmm, they delayed Poseidon :(

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Warner/Disc_Announcements/Poseidon_HD_DVD_Torpedoed/371

Now I don't feel that bad about downloading Poseidong onto the 360...I wanted to see the quality and I never saw this title in the theater so i figured, what the hell!

LeeS

12-01-06, 05:16 PM

KUDO's guys, the last 24hrs worth of posts have been outstanding (IMHO)

Back to lurking :)

b2bonez

12-01-06, 05:21 PM

I would expect no less from the person who wrote the guide to FUD. ;)

Sad to say the "guide" seems to have been deleated... ;) I guess you are on your on...

b2b

BrynRhys

12-01-06, 05:31 PM

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6395661.html

A couple of points to ponder:

- The studios seem to be focusing a lot more on digital downloads than HD packaged media. Check out some of the quarterly analyst call transcripts.

- Is part of MS' strategy around HD-DVD to prevent packaged HD from gaining too much of a foothold ahead of an MS-centric Media Center world?

Considering that Bi77orr3nt has made attempts to go legit, I really question the filter on its name.

mikey p

12-01-06, 05:37 PM

Which, my guess is not what blu-ray backing studios want to hear.

Actually as a happy A1 (HD DVD) owner myself, frankly, I could care less about ANY game machine, or is this now a game forum? :eek:

Rio

12-01-06, 05:40 PM

Another local market data supplier, Media Create Co. Ltd., estimated sales in the first full week at 42,099 units and said they dropped further to 32,622 units in the week from Nov. 20 to Nov. 27. Media Create earlier estimated launch weekend shipments were 81,693 units.Shipments are dropping significantly in Japan. Yes, small shipment.

Another numbers...
XB360 PS3
~'06/3Q 143,625
2006/10 8,891
~ 11/05 6,580
~ 11/12 3,864 81,639
~ 11/19 4,050 42,099
~ 11/26 7,007 32,662
---------------------------
Total 174,017 156,400

b2bonez

12-01-06, 05:47 PM

Actually as a happy A1 (HD DVD) owner myself, frankly, I could care less about ANY game machine, or is this now a game forum? :eek:

Well sad to say the top two selling devices that support HD on shiny disc are... #1 Sony PS3 and #2 Xbox addon.

b2b

2Channel

12-01-06, 05:48 PM

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6395661.html

A couple of points to ponder:

- The studios seem to be focusing a lot more on digital downloads than HD packaged media. Check out some of the quarterly analyst call transcripts.

The movie studios don't want to repeat what happened to the music publishers. They're looking to lead the charge on downloads instead of letting others do it. Everyone is getting into this game though. Everyday I seem to find another article about someone with a plan to do dowloadable movies.

http://news.com.com/Blockbuster+High+def+will+slow+movie+downloads/2100-1026_3-6139041.html

- Is part of MS' strategy around HD-DVD to prevent packaged HD from gaining too much of a foothold ahead of an MS-centric Media Center world?

Considering that Bi77orr3nt has made attempts to go legit, I really question the filter on its name.

Microsoft is placing bets on downloads and HD media. I believe downloads are still the long term play. For right now, physical media is where the action is and they want to win.

2Channel

12-01-06, 06:04 PM

Yes, small shipment.

Another numbers...
XB360 PS3
~'06/3Q 143,625
2006/10 8,891
~ 11/05 6,580
~ 11/12 3,864 81,639
~ 11/19 4,050 42,099
~ 11/26 7,007 32,662
---------------------------
Total 174,017 156,400

That's interesting....

These are the numbers I posted from nexgenwars.com less than 48 hours ago.

Xbox360 - 7,715,895
PS3 - 333,283

These are the current numbers

Xbox360 - 7,806,901
PS3 - 346,638

If I recall correctly the Xbox360 crossed the 7 Million threshold just about when the PS3 launched. There seems to be a pattern developing here. The only thing that can reverse this trend is Sony getting their hands on more blue lasers so they can increase their PS3 production.

BenDover

12-01-06, 06:04 PM

if that's what ms is up to then so to is sonym i've always fealt that the ps3 didn't represent a trojan horse in favor of bd but instead a trojan horse into the living room pc space...that is why i believe sony and ms are aligned on the frontlines of opposing sides of the battlefield.

the ps3 is an assault on the media center pc...i see the 360 as helping ms with getting the pc into the living room too...jmo

kdragon

12-01-06, 06:49 PM

That's interesting....

These are the numbers I posted from nexgenwars.com less than 48 hours ago.

Xbox360 - 7,715,895
PS3 - 333,283

These are the current numbers

Xbox360 - 7,806,901
PS3 - 346,638

If I recall correctly the Xbox360 crossed the 7 Million threshold just about when the PS3 launched. There seems to be a pattern developing here. The only thing that can reverse this trend is Sony getting their hands on more blue lasers so they can increase their PS3 production.From numbers posted by Rio and you what I can see is that Sony has Japan covered as far as Xbox360 is concerned (doesn't look like much demand for 360 there). They should now fully focus on USA+rest, especially USA. I would love to see similar numbers for USA or even NA combined numbers.

I think Wii is stealing the thunder from both PS3 and 360 everywhere.

K.L.

12-01-06, 07:15 PM

What's the point of the Xbox 360 figures? Where's the number of the HD DVD addon?

Rio

12-01-06, 07:43 PM

The numbers I posted is for Japanese market, based on the same news source that mikemorel posted.

mikemorel

12-01-06, 08:31 PM

The numbers I posted is for Japanese market, based on the same news source that mikemorel posted.There is no doubt in anyone's mind that the XBox360 will get swamped by PS3 in Japan. It is a foregone conclusion.

My point is that the declining PS3 shipments may be an indication of depleting stockpiles of finished consoles, both in Japan and the U.S. There may be some lean times ahead for Sony before things get better.

nataraj

12-01-06, 08:37 PM

What's interesting (disturbing) is that most of the talk was about "fixing" CSS to support BOD* DVDs (e.g., via kiosks) with appropriate CP protection. Apparently the studios are really excited about BOD DVD right now--talk of this new product started some time back, but things are progressing forward very quickly.

Wal-mart, target etc have told the studios that unless they allow BOD, they will start reducing the shelf space for DVDs. The retailers think DVDs take up too much shelf space .... thus the need for BOD.

2Channel

12-01-06, 09:33 PM

What's the point of the Xbox 360 figures? Where's the number of the HD DVD addon?

We won't really know until Microsoft's next earnings call in late January. I came across this in another thread. There's no way to know if his numbers are real or not, but here you go.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9050926#post9050926

Richard Paul

12-01-06, 09:57 PM

HD DVD spec doesn't mandate/require 60i out...True, but the specs do specify 60/50 Hz synchronization which is why flags are required with 24p video on HD DVD.

the hd dvd standard, at least from the publicly available, outdated, versions we've seen, requires that video, when encoded for a 60hz region, must include these flags so that they can properly be displayed on sets which operate at 60i...this is a GOOD thing that the flags are required...Just curious but how is it a good thing that flags are required? In fact why do you believe the flags are needed to convert 1080p24 into 1080i60?

In the demo material they displayed I also noticed that later releases are looking even better than the earlier releases.Which if taken literally would mean that either the earlier releases are not transparent or that they showed better looking material at the demo.

We won't really know until Microsoft's next earnings call in late January. I came across this in another thread. There's no way to know if his numbers are real or not, but here you go.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9050926#post9050926With posts such as these (1 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9050885&&#post9050885), 2 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9050480&&#post9050480), 3 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8844130&&#post8844130), 4 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8760191&&#post8760191), 5 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8631264&&#post8631264), 6 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8749961&&#post8749961)) I would say that the guy just likes to make guesses. To sum it up he has claimed that Resistance could fit on a single DVD, that 50,000 HD DVD add ons have been sold already, that Lionsgate and Disney will release on HD DVD next year, that Fox might announce support for HD DVD at the 2007 CES, that Toshiba has shipped 300,000 HD DVD players, and that hundreds of thousands of HD DVD add ons will be sold by Nov 14. And all of these claims are from posts he has made in the last month.

2Channel

12-01-06, 11:00 PM

Which if taken literally would mean that either the earlier releases are not transparent or that they showed better looking material at the demo.

VC-1, Mpeg2, Mpeg4/AVC are all lossy codecs.....nothing is actually "transparent to the master" unless it's a lossless codec. Having said that, in my opinion the early release titles I saw looked very good, the more recently encoded titles looked even better. VC-1 is being refined on a continual basis and the benefits show.

With posts such as these (1 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9050885&&#post9050885), 2 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9050480&&#post9050480), 3 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8844130&&#post8844130), 4 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8760191&&#post8760191), 5 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8631264&&#post8631264), 6 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8749961&&#post8749961)) I would say that the guy just likes to make guesses. To sum it up he has claimed that Resistance could fit on a single DVD, that 50,000 HD DVD add ons have been sold already, that Lionsgate and Disney will release on HD DVD next year, that Fox might announce support for HD DVD at the 2007 CES, that Toshiba has shipped 300,000 HD DVD players, and that hundreds of thousands of HD DVD add ons will be sold by Nov 14. And all of these claims are from posts he has made in the last month.

It was a mistake on my part to link to someones "hot tip." I should have known better than to spread an unsubstantiated rumor. As I did note in my post, we won't know for sure until Microsoft does their next earnings call at the end of January.

darinp2

12-02-06, 12:35 AM

PlayStation 3 sales drop sharply on low supply (http://www.infoworld.nl/idgns/bericht.phtml?id=002570DE00740E1800257237000DF3D8)

Shipments are dropping significantly in Japan.I don't see why we wouldn't expect less in the 2nd week than the first week with most releases. When companies announce a release date than have generally saved up production from more than a week for the initial launch, so that is what I would expect.

--Darin

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:13 AM

I wonder what the studios think of HD-DVD (Toshiba) falling flat on it's face with none of the new (new as in "new" models - don't want to get accused of making misleading comments, but that's another story.. ;) ) standalone players being available during the critical holiday shopping period ??

They are over arguing in the BD forum about which of the six BD players is the best. An embarrassment of BD player riches for sure.. :)

Right now I would say the both camps have delivered everything they respectively have to offer at this time and the ball is back in the studios side of the court to start pumping out the HD titles (and HD before the DVD release of new titles). No one (in normal consumer space) is going to buy expensive HW to stare at blank screens and retread releases for the "next big thing".

b2b No matter how you spin it, HD DVD and the Xbox 360 movie player add on are exceeding sales expectations, the PS3 and the more expensive Blu-ray players are below sales expectations.

Thats a reality to the studios and may affect content availability after the new year.

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:17 AM

http://www.videobusiness.com/blog/1730000173/post/1560005156.html
Pioneer Electronics VP Andy Parsons, also with the Blu-ray Disc Association, speaking on a high-def DVD panel said that the delay of PS3 hasn't made a difference in the format's launch. I've spoken to several Blu-ray studio backers unhappy with the delays who I'd be willing to bet would disagree with that. Just not on the record, of course... Wos, I mean what are the chances that the studios are privately disagreeing with the propaganda and happy stories being touted by Andy Parsons.

Maybe, just maybe, they can see through the hype, even if some people here cannot.

UxiSXRD

12-02-06, 03:29 AM

No matter how you spin it, HD DVD and the Xbox 360 movie player add on are exceeding sales expectations, the PS3 and the more expensive Blu-ray players are below sales expectations.

I bought one and I'm pleased with it... but what were the expectations and how many have they sold? And where did you get the numbers and reaction? Or is this conjecture? :confused:

b2bonez

12-02-06, 03:35 AM

No matter how you spin it, HD DVD and the Xbox 360 movie player add on are exceeding sales expectations, the PS3 and the more expensive Blu-ray players are below sales expectations.

Thats a reality to the studios and may affect content availability after the new year.

That might be a very valid point if there were some "sales expectations" numbers to look at. Right now the "sales" of the new Toshiba players is ZERO.. nada.. zilch. The addon... what can I say.. it might be selling well or not. MS hasn't given a clue of what a "sales expectation" might be, so exceeding an unknown number is pretty easy to do when you say what the "expectation" is after the fact... ;)

b2b

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:39 AM

With posts such as these (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) I would say that the guy just likes to make guesses. To sum it up he has claimed that Resistance could fit on a single DVD, that 50,000 HD DVD add ons have been sold already, that Lionsgate and Disney will release on HD DVD next year, that Fox might announce support for HD DVD at the 2007 CES, that Toshiba has shipped 300,000 HD DVD players, and that hundreds of thousands of HD DVD add ons will be sold by Nov 14. And all of these claims are from posts he has made in the last month. Well the estimate he made two months ago of 200,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player add on sales by Nov 14th does seem to be overly exuberant. As well as 300,000 HD DVD players sold. But his sins seem to be in the estimate of the time that those milestones will be reached, not when. Those are at least possibilities that may happen in the future, even if his sense of timing of them is premature.

How is that different than the official BS we get out of the Blu-ray spin offices, your not as critical of those estimates?

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:47 AM

That might be a very valid point if there were some "sales expectations" numbers to look at. Right now the "sales" of the new Toshiba players is ZERO.. nada.. zilch. The addon... what can I say.. it might be selling well or not. MS hasn't given a clue of what a "sales expectation" might be, so exceeding an unknown number is pretty easy to do when you say what the "expectation" is after the fact... ;)

b2b Well you are right in that HD DVD has not created false expectations.
That seems smarter than creating ones you dramatically fail to meet, like Blu-ray has...

Studios are obviously watching they lower than expected sales of the PS3 based on its delays and availability.

Sony set the expectation bar it has failed to cross. That is an issue that may effect studio support.

Because Toshiba and Microsoft were smart enough not to raised false hopes and expectations, and low keyed consistently under-promised and over-delivered means that they don't have the same expectations to meet.

Blu-ray is failing to deliver on its sales hype, and Sony is partially to blame because of its hype.

HD DVD has a lower bar, because it publicly did not set its bar so high.

b2bonez

12-02-06, 11:13 AM

Well you are right in that HD DVD has not created false expectations.
That seems smarter than creating ones you dramatically fail to meet, like Blu-ray has...

Studios are obviously watching they lower than expected sales of the PS3 based on its delays and availability.

Sony set the expectation bar it has failed to cross. That is an issue that may effect studio support.

Because Toshiba and Microsoft were smart enough not to raised false hopes and expectations, and low keyed consistently under-promised and over-delivered means that they don't have the same expectations to meet.

Blu-ray is failing to deliver on its sales hype, and Sony is partially to blame because of its hype.

HD DVD has a lower bar, because it publicly did not set its bar so high.

Five "in production" BD player devices (six when Pioneer releases), 50GB BD discs released and in production. That doesn't sound too shabby to me..

That is vs. four discontinued Tosh HD-DVD players (and clones) one USB addon drive (Xbox) and two Tosh players delayed due to parts/QC problems. I guess you're right. If you set the "bar" low enough, you can claim "success" at most any level of achievement.. ;)

b2b

Esox50

12-02-06, 11:20 AM

Well the estimate he made two months ago of 200,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player add on sales by Nov 14th does seem to be overly exuberant. As well as 300,000 HD DVD players sold. But his sins seem to be in the estimate of the time that those milestones will be reached, not when. Those are at least possibilities that may happen in the future, even if his sense of timing of them is premature.
Are you seriously defending this guy? I almost spit out my coffee when I read this.

Here's my SWAG at a prediction: HD DVD and Bd are going to sell 3MM units each in the next four weeks before year-end. I do hope though you'll forgive me if they fall way short of that. But at the end of the day, I'm still right in my prediction because they probably will sell that many eventually?!?!?!?! :rolleyes:

The sun is going to rise tomorrow morning at 2am. I do hope you'll forgive me if it really happens at around 6:50AM. After all, I was only off by 4 hours and 50 minutes. :D

The Chicago Cubs are going to win the World Series in 2007. I do hope you'll forgive me if it doesn't happen next year because it will happen at some point...oh wait...no it won't...sorry. Bad example. :D :D :D

Kosty

12-02-06, 11:33 AM

Five "in production" BD player devices (six when Pioneer releases), 50GB BD discs released and in production. That doesn't sound too shabby to me..

That is vs. four discontinued Tosh HD-DVD players (and clones) one USB addon drive (Xbox) and two Tosh players delayed due to parts/QC problems. I guess you're right. If you set the "bar" low enough, you can claim "success" at most any level of achievement.. ;)

b2b Well how many Blu-ray player models in production doesn't equate to sales there bucko.

Strange how the positive atmosphere of quiet confidence and success coming out of the HD DVD leaders, Toshiba and Microsoft, camps contrast with the finger-pointing and excuses coming from the Blu-ray leader Sony's camp.

What you describe for HD DVD players is accurate enough, although it is phrased in your usual biased and inflammatory word choices.

"Discontinued" usually means obsolete or stopped in production because of market failure. That certainly isn't the case with the HD A1. In fact it's unavailability is unrelated to those common issues, its because its sold faster than projected and has a high user sastisfaction rate. Thats a different problem than if the Samsung would be taken off the market with its pitiful sales rate and early reviews. Then the 'discontinued" label and all of its perjorative attributes would be appropriate. But that's probably not going to happen in that case as with its new firmware, the Sammy is at least competitive as a Blu-ray player.

The production rate of its ergonomically improved HD DVD successors will be an issue, But its probably a good thing to await until quantities are available for launch (or you can do a PS3 model and NOT have adequate supplies to meet demand at launch) . Most HD DVD backers would rather have the G2 launch delayed for whatever issues ( at least they caught the QC issue before launch) unlike in the Samsung launch.

The issue of setting a sales "expectation bar" is that if you don't meet it you generate your own standard of failure.

I much rather take the quiet approach of HD DVD and deliver lower cost higher performing players and more titles with superior quality and let the market judge.

I guess you prefer the big talk and no performance attitude of the Blu-ray camp.

Goodie for you. :rolleyes:

Kosty

12-02-06, 11:38 AM

Are you seriously defending this guy? I almost spit out my coffee when I read this.

Here's my SWAG at a prediction: HD DVD and Bd are going to sell 3MM units each in the next four weeks before year-end. I do hope though you'll forgive me if they fall way short of that. But at the end of the day, I'm still right in my prediction because they probably will sell that many eventually?!?!?!?! :rolleyes:

The sun is going to rise tomorrow morning at 2am. I do hope you'll forgive me if it really happens at around 6:50AM. After all, I was only off by 4 hours and 50 minutes. :D

The Chicago Cubs are going to win the World Series in 2007. I do hope you'll forgive me if it doesn't happen next year because it will happen at some point...oh wait...no it won't...sorry. Bad example. :D :D :D Not really defending him. His estimates have obviously been wildly optimistic in their timing, even if they are possible. I don't trust the accuracy of his estimates.

I was just trying to state that some of the official Sony and Blu-ray estimates have been just as wrong and haven't been criticized as much by the Blu-ray defenders. Just highlighting the double standard of slamming a poster for saying the same things the BDA guys do.

b2bonez

12-02-06, 11:59 AM

Well how many Blu-ray player models in production doesn't equate to sales there bucko.

Strange how the positive atmosphere of quiet confidence and success coming out of the HD DVD leaders, Toshiba and Microsoft, camps contrast with the finger-pointing and excuses coming from the Blu-ray leader Sony's camp.

What you describe for HD DVD players is accurate enough, although it is phrased in your usual biased and inflammatory word choices.

"Discontinued" usually means obsolete or stopped in production because of market failure. That certainly isn't the case with the HD A1. In fact it's unavailability is unrelated to those common issues, its because its sold faster than projected and has a high user sastisfaction rate. Thats a different problem than if the Samsung would be taken off the market with its pitiful sales rate and early reviews. Then the 'discontinued" label and all of its perjorative attributes would be appropriate. But that's probably not going to happen in that case as with its new firmware, the Sammy is at least competitive as a Blu-ray player.

The production rate of its ergonomically improved HD DVD successors will be an issue, But its probably a good thing to await until quantities are available for launch (or you can do a PS3 model and NOT have adequate supplies to meet demand at launch) . Most HD DVD backers would rather have the G2 launch delayed for whatever issues ( at least they caught the QC issue before launch) unlike in the Samsung launch.

The issue of setting a sales "expectation bar" is that if you don't meet it you generate your own standard of failure.

I much rather take the quiet approach of HD DVD and deliver lower cost higher performing players and more titles with superior quality and let the market judge.

I guess you prefer the big talk and no performance attitude of the Blu-ray camp.

Goodie for you. :rolleyes:

"Discontinued" - "2. To cease making or manufacturing: discontinued the sportscar in the 1960s."

Seems like a reasonable description to me.. And more to the point, the A1 was based on a two year old design that used parts (Intel processor) that were only available in "discontinued" quantities. "Obsolete" in design and parts pretty much sums up the first Toshiba players. ;)

b2b

kjack

12-02-06, 12:03 PM

Strange how the positive atmosphere of quiet confidence and success coming out of the HD DVD leaders, Toshiba and Microsoft, camps contrast with the finger-pointing and excuses coming from the Blu-ray leader Sony's camp.The fewer the companies involved, and the fewer the implentation variations, the smoother deploying a new technology goes. If all the BD companies were making HD-DVD, I have no doubt there would be plenty of issues, both public and private. These are very complex specs with lots of room for interpretation on how do things.

b2bonez

12-02-06, 12:10 PM

The fewer the companies involved, and the fewer the implentation variations, the smoother deploying a new technology goes. If all the BD companies were making HD-DVD, I have no doubt there would be plenty of issues, both public and private. These are very complex specs with lots of room for interpretation on how do things.

Any idea if they are coming up with "reference" media (encoding, authoring, physical disc) and a "reference" HW platform to get a handle on the "room for interpretation" ?? It really would be a shame to end up with a repeat of the same mess as DVD has become..

b2b

BenDover

12-02-06, 12:35 PM

"Discontinued" - "2. To cease making or manufacturing: discontinued the sportscar in the 1960s."

Seems like a reasonable description to me.. And more to the point, the A1 was based on a two year old design that used parts (Intel processor) that were only available in "discontinued" quantities. "Obsolete" in design and parts pretty much sums up the first Toshiba players. ;)

b2b

every product out on the market, by the time it makes it to market, is already a dated design!!

spin on dj b2b ;)

Kosty

12-02-06, 12:39 PM

"Discontinued" - "2. To cease making or manufacturing: discontinued the sportscar in the 1960s."

Seems like a reasonable description to me.. And more to the point, the A1 was based on a two year old design that used parts (Intel processor) that were only available in "discontinued" quantities. "Obsolete" in design and parts pretty much sums up the first Toshiba players. ;)

b2b Yeah its a shame they performed better than the cutting edge Samsung Blu-ray player design..And sold a lot more too... ;)

kjack

12-02-06, 12:40 PM

Any idea if they are coming up with "reference" media (encoding, authoring, physical disc) and a "reference" HW platform to get a handle on the "room for interpretation" ?? There are test discs. However, they do not cover all possibilities. For example, we used ~70+ BD test discs (many custom made) to be able to easily narrow down where any problem areas are when we or a customer find an issue.

All current and upcoming movies (soon to be released) are tested in the current and upcoming (soon to be released) players. This will go on for quite awhile. At some point a limited set of players will be used for movie testing.

For DVD, at Sigma we had to test every new DVD that came out for several years due to authoring issues. The same thing will have to be done for BD and HD-DVD.

There is no HW reference platform for the players, except for commerically available solutions. That's why some companies rush to be first to market - they become the standard others are compared against. So, for example, any HD-DVD player coming out will have to match the Toshiba in how it handles things that may affect the playback experience, even if it is in error.

What'sHD

12-02-06, 12:42 PM

But his sins seem to be in the estimate of the time that those milestones will be reached, not when. Those are at least possibilities that may happen in the future, even if his sense of timing of them is premature.
hoo mama
If ever the chips are down, I want you on my side, dude. Way to support the team

Not so much with the logic though :)

Kosty

12-02-06, 12:45 PM

every product out on the market, by the time it makes it to market, is already a dated design!!

spin on dj b2b ;) You gotta admit Ben that b2 is pretty good at this wordplay stuff.

I sometimes wonder what would happen if he would apply his gifts in the service of good instead of evil... ;)

just kidding of course.. :)

I just gotta say, your talents are wasted here B2. I'm actually pretty impressed by your ingenuity, even if I don't agree with your logic or conclusions.

Its like talking politics with a good friend. :) Everyone learns and has fun even if you don't agree at the the end of the night.

What'sHD

12-02-06, 12:48 PM

The sun is going to rise tomorrow morning at 2am. I do hope you'll forgive me if it really happens at around 6:50AM. After all, I was only off by 4 hours and 50 minutes. :D
Here, I have one too:

BD is going to release movies that will clearly surpass the quality of any released HD movie, thanks to higher bitrate and AVC or VC1, in 9 months.

This one may actually come true, but if it doesn't, excuse my "pre-maturity" and replace '9 months' with 'lifetime of format'.

Kosty

12-02-06, 12:52 PM

hoo mama
If ever the chips are down, I want you on my side, dude. Way to support the team

Not so much with the logic though :) Just battlefield first aid.

I tried not to shoot my own wounded when they are down on the ground in the field after they were just shooting in the same direction I was a moment ago.

Even inaccurate allies are useful in suppressing enemy fire so the more talented warriors can finish the battle. ;)

b2bonez

12-02-06, 12:58 PM

Yeah its a shame they performed better than the cutting edge Samsung Blu-ray player design..And sold a lot more too... ;)

How about this comment.. observations from the "real world" of consumers ???
I haven't bought either system and don't plan to for awhile. I've bought a couple of Blu-ray discs, but no player yet. I can't see that changing anytime soon, because the blu-ray players are too expensive and the available titles either don't interest me and/or I already have them on DVD or laserdisc (I don't replace discs with newer formats). I'm not interested in HD-DVD, because I'm not interested in what I consider to be prototype players that aren't ready for prime time (too many load time, freezing, re-boot and playback skip complaints in the HD-DVD forums).

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9054863&&#post9054863

b2b

rdjam

12-02-06, 01:00 PM

rdjam

12-02-06, 01:03 PM

How about this comment.. observations from the "real world" of consumers ???
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9054863&&#post9054863

b2b
Gee whiz - you are now using a noob, with 3 posts, who doesn't have either player as your expert witness that the Toshibas don't work?

And should we take anything from the fact that your noob witness has already bought Bluray movies without a player - yet is "openminded"? :p

Anyhoo - anyone got some real news here?

b2bonez

12-02-06, 01:07 PM

Just battlefield first aid. I tried not to shoot my own wounded when they are down on the ground in the field after they were just shooting in the same direction I was a momement ago. Even innacurate allies are useful in supressing enemy fire so the more talented warriors can finish the battle.

I think there is a term for that..."Cannon fodder"... ;)

b2b

AnthonyP

12-02-06, 02:26 PM

in my engineering days, individuals that were seen as problems and that couldn't get the job done were "promoted out of the way" ...

BenDover: is that from personal experience :)

AnthonyP

12-02-06, 02:47 PM

Rob, here's my experience. Personally my company has sold over 3000 HD DVD players and have taken back 5 units, 3 of which I am personally using and have no trouble whatsoever.

I have also helped a few HD DVD owners expedite their repair/replacement HD DVD playas with Toshiba, but in no way is the A1, D1 XA1 or RCA HD DVD player having any serious problem or high rate of defect. IN fact, the reliability is excellent.

I have seen hundreds of Samsung players being returned. The Panasonic BMP-BD10 has been a very nice player and to date I have only seen 1 defective unit.

I expect the HD DVD G2 players to be fast and glitch free.

Robert: how many Samsungs have you sold?

dsinger

12-02-06, 02:52 PM

hoo mama
If ever the chips are down, I want you on my side, dude. Way to support the team

Not so much with the logic though :)

Perhaps MS-DVD started paying overtime for Saturdays.

AnthonyP

12-02-06, 02:55 PM

HD DVD spec doesn't mandate/require 60i out...please stop trying to spread FUD...did you forget your own "FUD for idiots" post already

no Ben, it requires all work on the player all internal processing be done in 60i

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:00 PM

b2bonez

12-02-06, 03:07 PM

Not a penny coming this way boys, although I would consider any offers to support the things I think are the best of breed. Just fighting for truth justice and the American way.

I like do like HD DVD now, although I consider myself a HD fanatic first and foremost. I also want Blu-ray to improve since I think Sony will not abandon it for a long time. I am open to Blu-ray when it is a cost effective solution that works as well as HD DVD does now at a competitive price.

Kinda insulting to say so directly though, I don't even say that of some of the more passionate Blu-ray supporters.

BTW saying MS-DVD is as inflammatory as Blurray and is kinda frowned upon here.

So you consider associating MS with HD-DVD (in a humorous sort of way) a derogatory statement ?? ;) Actually considering how much MS technology is built into HD-DVD (VC-1, HDi, AACS (MS was the primary developer) and now the second wave of HW products being from MS, the term is pretty well founded in reality...

b2b

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:16 PM

Nah only humorous. I see the evil knife twisting irony in it. But I also see Blur-ray is the same way, it highlights the initial fault and PQ problems in the Blu-ray initial releases.

But I think the common use of either of those terms cause people to go insane here, and the mods don;t like it, so I proposed a cease fire on their use.

I have seen the mods lock this thread and delete posts when people were talking back and forth using that term and some other misspellings for Blu-ray so I wanted to steer away from it.

So you consider associating MS with HD-DVD (in a humorous sort of way) a derogatory statement ?? I do consider implying I am paid by MSFT to post here kinda insulting as you would if I said that Sony was paying you for your own post count.

I post here because I believe in what I say and I think I am contributing to the discussion. I read your posts and others because I learn some things and am entertained by others.

I am glad you post here. I hope you keep it up. I hope others think the same for my contributions here as well.

AnthonyP

12-02-06, 03:22 PM

Kosty

12-02-06, 03:50 PM

I dunno. At least 200 in my local market from my conversations with managers in my big box retailers and game shops. And my market is around 150-200 largest nationally. Several of them have already gone through and sold their second shipments. Sales were better than they expected, as most of them admit the 360 add on was not on their radar screens.

So low end just by my measly little market x 200 markets is 200 x 200 is 40,000 plus sold to date.

Iif I had to guess, I would double that figure and say 60,000 to 80,000 have been sold to date, based on the fact that supply seems to be just ahead of demand at this point.

Surprising thing is that some of those guys are telling me that a lot of people are buying both a new HD DVD player add on and a new Xbox 360 at the same time. That was unexpected thing to a couple of guys I talked to. They never thought someone who was just buying a new Xbox would get the HD DVD drive at the same time.

I thought I saw a VB link that estimated 50,000 Xbox add ons sold, but I can't find the link.

Anyone else have it?

What % of Xbox owners will buy the HD DVD movie player add on is anyones guess.
http://nexgenwars.com/

dialog_gvf

12-02-06, 03:51 PM

The fewer the companies involved, and the fewer the implentation variations, the smoother deploying a new technology goes. If all the BD companies were making HD-DVD, I have no doubt there would be plenty of issues, both public and private. These are very complex specs with lots of room for interpretation on how do things.

So true. When the first upscaling DVD players came out, the Samsung one couldn't do 1080i with my Toshiba set. The HDCP handshake would fail. Samsung said the reason was a different interpretation on how to handle some situation.

They provided a firmware update, and all was fine. But it shows what can happen.

The BDA is doing interoperability testing to avoid that specific issue, aren't they?

Gary

dialog_gvf

12-02-06, 04:06 PM

I thought I saw a VB link that estimated 50,000 Xbox add ons sold, but I can't find the link.

Another recent link referenced (without a link) a VB article saying an industry insider said the number was 100K.

The thing is, they are easily available (right now, 25 are stacked up at my local BB). And if $200 is the magic price point, I would have hoped to see a heck of a lot sold.

If we eliminate all those who buy Xbox 360s and PS/3s, where is the mass market for HD coming from?

Well the estimate he made two months ago of 200,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player add on sales by Nov 14th does seem to be overly exuberant. As well as 300,000 HD DVD players sold. But his sins seem to be in the estimate of the time that those milestones will be reached, not when. Those are at least possibilities that may happen in the future, even if his sense of timing of them is premature.

Couldn't the same thing be said for the PS/3? It will hit the numbers eventually too.

Hype is hype. How fair is it to attack one side's and forgive the other's?

Gary

dialog_gvf

12-02-06, 04:10 PM

What % of Xbox owners will buy the HD DVD movie player add on is anyones guess.
http://nexgenwars.com/

At this rate, it will be Apple and Sun arguing who has the better OS.

1.1 million Wii in two weeks?! That is going to absolutely murder both sides.

Gary

Talkstr8t

12-02-06, 04:24 PM

Thanks for the clarification. Is it possible for there to be a Blu-ray authoring suite like this or does the encryption issues make this kind of home authoring impossible for Blu-ray?

I would think so, but is red laser authoring on DVD-R a sure thing or is it prohibited? If so why haven't we seen an authoring suite released?This isn't prohibited - AACS is only required on replicated (i.e. stamped) discs, not duplicated (i.e. burned). You can absolutely author to DVD-R. Authoring suites aren't out because PC-based playback suites are barely out (only bundled with Blu-ray equipped PC's for the most part). They'll come, but it takes time for the authoring tools vendors to determine what the right features and user interfaces are for the non-professional public.

Talkstr8t

12-02-06, 05:03 PM

The $1,000 BD player you just bought a few months ago plays almost all BDs and that's a "gotcha."There are plenty of people with the Samsung who can play Speed fine. There are people with the Samsung who couldn't play one disc and then could play another copy. I've seen no reports of non-Samsung players having any trouble. The net? It appears there is some borderline condition between the Samsung and certain pressings of Speed resulting in incompatibility. This sort of behavior was common in the early days of DVD and certainly doesn't suggest Fox was somehow blatantly negligent in their QA.

WayneL

12-02-06, 05:26 PM

I do consider implying I am paid by MSFT to post here kinda insulting as you would if I said that Sony was paying you for your own post count.
I do think the frequent and ardent posters should disclose (or deny) any financial incentives they or a relative may have with any of the subject parties.

kdragon

12-02-06, 05:43 PM

Robert: how many Samsungs have you sold?Anthony, I asked something similar to him. Although, I asked how many of the returned Samsung players were defective (after he gave number for A1). I didn't get an answer. In the absence of an answer I am guessing that most of the returned Samsung players were not defective! ;)

2Channel

12-02-06, 08:14 PM

There are plenty of people with the Samsung who can play Speed fine. There are people with the Samsung who couldn't play one disc and then could play another copy. I've seen no reports of non-Samsung players having any trouble. The net? It appears there is some borderline condition between the Samsung and certain pressings of Speed resulting in incompatibility. This sort of behavior was common in the early days of DVD and certainly doesn't suggest Fox was somehow blatantly negligent in their QA.

Thanks for the update. I saw the article last night on highdefdigest saying that a number of the Speed BDs didn't work specifically on the Samsung player and Fox is offering replacement discs to those affected.

Any ideas on why? It sound like the drive mechanism on the Samsung may be a little more touchy than the PS3.

2Channel

12-02-06, 08:36 PM

Another recent link referenced (without a link) a VB article saying an industry insider said the number was 100K.

The thing is, they are easily available (right now, 25 are stacked up at my local BB). And if $200 is the magic price point, I would have hoped to see a heck of a lot sold.

If we eliminate all those who buy Xbox 360s and PS/3s, where is the mass market for HD coming from?

There is no mass market for HD discs. Maybe some day...or maybe never. This is all about building early momentum and credibility.

Couldn't the same thing be said for the PS/3? It will hit the numbers eventually too.

Hype is hype. How fair is it to attack one side's and forgive the other's?
Gary

Yes, I see your point. So the hype of one AVS member is equivalent to the hype Sony corporation spreads to its investors, its studio partners and its customers?

The last I heard Sony was still saying they would ship 2 Million PS3s by 12/31/06 and 6 Million PS3s by March 07? Can the BD supporters go on the record and say if they believe Sony this time?

mikemorel

12-02-06, 09:06 PM

HD DVD playback and recording via red laser on conventional DVD blanks was among items approved at last week's DVD Forum Steering Committee. The blend of red laser DVDs and advanced compression systems has been embraced for HD DVD content playback and for disc-based HD camcorders. For playback, the DVD Forum already has approved the 3X HD DVD-ROM, a hybrid Warner devised for short-form videos. It would put content on regular DVDs, read by red lasers but compressed with MPEG-4/H.264-AVC or VC1 and spinning at 3 times DVD's speed to render HD DVD data rates and resolution.

2Channel

12-02-06, 09:17 PM

I do think the frequent and ardent posters should disclose (or deny) any financial incentives they or a relative may have with any of the subject parties.

Sure, why not.

I am not now or have I ever been in the employ of any of the companies involved with HD-DVD or BD. I have never received any form of payment or compensation for services rendered to any of the corporations involved with either standard.

I owned a small number of shares of Microsoft stock about 5 - 6 years ago that I purchased on the open market. I sold those shares about a year later at a small profit. I currently have no shares in any of the companies involved with either standard.

I have been a customer of Microsoft in the past and have used their products in a personal and professional capacity. I currently own a Toshiba TV and a Sony DVD/SACD player. I have a Toshiba HD-DVD player on pre-order and plan to buy a PS3 as soon as I no longer have to worry about being injured as a result of buying one. ;)

The robbers reportedly bum rushed the house with their eyes on the prize, tied up the victims with a “PlayStation power cord,” bolted out while laughing evilly, and then realized they needed the very cable they left behind. Similar to the crook who jacked a TV but returned for the remote, these guys apparently forgot the keys to pulling off an even marginally successful heist, but thankfully didn’t harm the poor family they intruded upon. The wonders of humanity will never cease.

http://news.naikmichel.com/2006/11/29/crooks-tie-up-victims-with-power-cord-whilst-stealing-playstation/

*********
Update. We do have one friend that works for Sony. No other friends or family that work for or profit from any of the companies involved with HD-DVD or BD.

Kosty

12-02-06, 09:32 PM

There are plenty of people with the Samsung who can play Speed fine. There are people with the Samsung who couldn't play one disc and then could play another copy. I've seen no reports of non-Samsung players having any trouble. The net? It appears there is some borderline condition between the Samsung and certain pressings of Speed resulting in incompatibility. This sort of behavior was common in the early days of DVD and certainly doesn't suggest Fox was somehow blatantly negligent in their QA. I thought Fox handled this problem in a fantastic way by offering refunds or duplicate discs to anyone affected. Good for them and the people that brought up the problem.

Kosty

12-02-06, 09:36 PM

Anthony, I asked something similar to him. Although, I asked how many of the returned Samsung players were defective (after he gave number for A1). I didn't get an answer. In the absence of an answer I am guessing that most of the returned Samsung players were not defective! ;) Per my conversation with him, I think its fair to say that most of his Samsung returns were not defective, its just that the buyers were dissatisfied with the performance and hence their value.

That was in contrast with the low return rate and high user satisfation with the HD A1 and HD XA2 models. Although they have ergonomic issues, most owners are well satisfied with them, at least well enough to keep them.

2Channel

12-02-06, 09:58 PM

Just battlefield first aid.

I tried not to shoot my own wounded when they are down on the ground in the field after they were just shooting in the same direction I was a moment ago.

Even inaccurate allies are useful in suppressing enemy fire so the more talented warriors can finish the battle. ;)

You're a class act Kosty....I alwasy enjoy reading your posts as well as the many other great HD-DVD supporters. I won't name them all out of concern that I would forget someone. On the BD side, I enjoy b2b most (but there are others as well).

All of you help entertain, provoke thought and pass the time as we wait for more nuggets of news. :)

b2bonez

12-02-06, 10:13 PM

You're a class act Kosty....I alwasy enjoy reading your posts as well as the many other great HD-DVD supporters. I won't name them all out of concern that I would forget someone. On the BD side, I enjoy b2b most (but there are others as well).

All of you help entertain, provoke thought and pass the time as we wait for more nuggets of news. :)

Did you say nuggets... ;) Now Collins* is saying 35,000 Toshiba players. :eek:
How people have HD DVD players are out there now?

Kevin Collins: There are over 35,000 Toshiba HD DVD players and a second generation player coming out. From what I hear the Xbox 360 player has been flying off the shelves, particularly here in the LA area. However, we're still early.

http://www.socaltech.com/fullstory/0006501.html

b2b

*note: Kevin Collins, Director of HD DVD Evangelism at Microsoft

2Channel

12-02-06, 10:53 PM

Did you say nuggets... ;) Now Collins* is saying 35,000 Toshiba players. :eek:

http://www.socaltech.com/fullstory/0006501.html

b2b

*note: Kevin Collins, Director of HD DVD Evangelism at Microsoft

That's interesting....Kevin actually said over 35,000. Could he be down playing the numbers in the opposite fashion from the way Sony overplays them by saying 2 Millions PS3s by the end of the year?

By the way, still waiting for your answer. Do you believe Sony this time? 2 Million PS3s by 12/31/06 and 6 Million by March 07? Enquiring minds want to know. ;)

b2bonez

12-02-06, 11:09 PM

That's interesting....Kevin actually said over 35,000. Could he be down playing the numbers in the opposite fashion from the way Sony overplays them by saying 2 Millions PS3s by the end of the year?

By the way, still waiting for your answer. Do you believe Sony this time? 2 Million PS3s by 12/31/06 and 6 Milliong by March 07? Enquiring minds want to know. ;)

I will take a queue from the reverend Kevin and say "over 35,000", ;) but in any event the PS3 will be the #1 HD movie disc device on either of those dates you mentioned... :)

b2b

mikey p

12-02-06, 11:11 PM

I do think the frequent and ardent posters should disclose (or deny) any financial incentives they or a relative may have with any of the subject parties.

Yes, it sure would put things in better focus. ;)

2Channel

12-03-06, 12:02 AM

I will take a queue from the reverend Kevin and say "over 35,000", ;) but in any event the PS3 will be the #1 HD movie disc device on either of those dates you mentioned... :)

b2b

So, I hate to be a stickler on this ;), but am I understanding you correctly in that you don't believe Sony on their latest revised PS3 projections? There's been thounderous silence from the rest of the BD supporters on this question, so I think you have lots of company on this one. This leads me to two questions.

1. If the above is true.....do you believe the studios are more trusting than the cynical group on this thread?

2. Do you believe the rest of the things Sony and the reverend Don Eklund are saying about the current state and future potential of BD?

b2bonez

12-03-06, 12:13 AM

So, I hate to be a stickler on this ;), but am I understanding you correctly in that you don't believe Sony on their latest revised PS3 projections? There's been thounderous silence from the rest of the BD supporters on this question, so I think you have lots of company on this one. This leads me to two questions.

1. If the above is true.....do you believe the studios are more trusting than the cynical group on this thread?

2. Do you believe the rest of the things Sony and the reverend Don Eklund are saying about the current state and future potential of BD?

Well post a link to what Sony said.. This is the last I read from a Sony person..
We’re comfortable we’ll have the 400,000 within a week. Then we want a steady flow for the rest of the year--all planes. The cavalry is coming.
http://www.forbes.com/digitalentertainment/2006/11/16/sony-ps3-playstation-tech-media-cx_rr_116sony.html

That was the day before release. If they are doing all air shipments until the end of the year there is going to a period when the supply goes slack if they cut over to ships. Post an actual Sony link and I will look at it.

b2b

2Channel

12-03-06, 01:30 AM

Well post a link to what Sony said.. This is the last I read from a Sony person..

http://www.forbes.com/digitalentertainment/2006/11/16/sony-ps3-playstation-tech-media-cx_rr_116sony.html

That was the day before release. If they are doing all air shipments until the end of the year there is going to a period when the supply goes slack if they cut over to ships. Post an actual Sony link and I will look at it.

b2b

Sony spokesman Dave Karraker Wednesday reiterated Sony's goal of shipping 1 million PS3s to the United States, and 2 million globally, by year end.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15854413/

Sony has set a PS3 global shipment target of 6 million by next March.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-11-17T051832Z_01_T118602_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-JAPAN-STOCKS-UPDATE-5.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

I know I've seen a newer article quoting Sony on the 6 Million number for March, but it's hard to find. When I search Google I mostly find articles about how the PS3 will not be out in Christmas 2005, but will instead launch in March 2006. Then there's this gem. ;)

By INQUIRER staff: Wednesday 14 July 2004, 09:52

SONY WILL have models of the Playstation 3 in shops by March next year, the Kyodo News service reported earlier this week.

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=17206

Is anyone else noticing Sony's love for the month of March? That's the EU launch....right?

2Channel

12-03-06, 02:22 AM

Well post a link to what Sony said.. This is the last I read from a Sony person..

We’re comfortable we’ll have the 400,000 within a week. Then we want a steady flow for the rest of the year--all planes. The cavalry is coming.

http://www.forbes.com/digitalentertainment/2006/11/16/sony-ps3-playstation-tech-media-cx_rr_116sony.html

That was the day before release. If they are doing all air shipments until the end of the year there is going to a period when the supply goes slack if they cut over to ships. Post an actual Sony link and I will look at it.

b2b

I just realized, this is yet another broken promise from Sony. They never shipped the 400,000 within a week. Another quote from the Forbes article you linked.

And at least one group of hardcore gamers agrees--they’re the ones that camped out in the rain Thursday to get their hands on one of the 400,000 units on U.S. soil. More are on the way within a week, and Sony says a total of 1 million will make it to the U.S. by the end of 2006.

The global sales number according to nexgenwars.com

ps3 = 357,006

We're two weeks out from the launch and their haven't been 400,000 shipped globally, let alone in the U.S. and there's no cavalry in site.

Why does it matter? The studios know that only a percentage of PS3 buyers will turn into BD movie watchers. The trojan horse strategy depends on the kind of huge volume that the dominant gaming console can generate (think PS2 volumes). So while there may be more BD capable players now than HD-DVD (though we don't know the numbers for the xbox add-on), it doesn't translate 1:1 to BD watchers and more importantly BD sales.

How much longer before studios start to feel like they've been taken for a ride?

Why do you still trust Sony and put faith in them delivering on their promises?

dialog_gvf

12-03-06, 02:25 AM

Is anyone else noticing Sony's love for the month of March? That's the EU launch....right?

It's Sony's fiscal year end.

Microsoft's is the end of June: Hence the 5 million Xbox 360 prediction for end of June.

Warner's is calendar year end: Hence all those HD estimates for the end of year.

Gary

dialog_gvf

12-03-06, 02:56 AM

There is no mass market for HD discs. Maybe some day...or maybe never. This is all about building early momentum and credibility.

I agree. I hope we're wrong, but I don't see it.

Yes, I see your point. So the hype of one AVS member is equivalent to the hype Sony corporation spreads to its investors, its studio partners and its customers?

Of course not. The reference was to a claim from an MS rep of estimates. Not an AVS poster. And the player estimates probably came from the Toshiba president:

Toshiba Debuts Second-Gen HD DVD Players (http://techbuilder.org/news/194400562)

The introduction of two new HD DVD players by Toshiba Corp. represent the company's second-generation system that it hopes will boost sales above a half-million units by next spring.

Originally, Toshiba was saying 300K by the end of year, and 500K by fiscal year end (also March).

Toshiba predicts the HD DVD market will grow to nearly 4 million units by next year and over 8 million by 2008. "In 2008, 20 million PCs will have HD DVD drives," Fujii predicted, adding that PC drives will surpass HD DVD players by 2008.

Can you reconcile those numbers with your opinion stated above?

Gary

darinp2

12-03-06, 04:23 AM

I do think the frequent and ardent posters should disclose (or deny) any financial incentives they or a relative may have with any of the subject parties.Should I mention that a certain Microsoft Vice President offered me $7500 here, but I didn't take it, since that could be said to be a "financial incentive"? ;) :)

--Darin

Eternal_Sunshine

12-03-06, 04:29 AM

We're two weeks out from the launch and their haven't been 400,000 shipped globally, let alone in the U.S. and there's no cavalry in site. (...) How much longer before studios start to feel like they've been taken for a ride?

In light of all their other talking points essentially vanished by now (a variety of BD players in the market, 50 GB discs in the market, PQ/use of newer codecs obviously a studio issue, not a format issue) it's quite interesting how HD-DVD supporter's last straw has become this "Sony is not delivering as many PS3s as they promised – the studios will turn neutral soon" argument. This is understandable as HD-DVD can only get so far with the studio support they now have. The facts are that Sony is selling PS3s as fast as they can make them, that supply will get better and better and that it's a damn great BD player. I'm sure the studios will give Sony credit for delivering a quality product and have a long-term strategy looking way beyond launch day sales. I'm not a betting guy but if I was my money would be on Universal turning neutral rather than Sony or Fox.

wco81

12-03-06, 09:18 AM

Should I mention that a certain Microsoft Vice President offered me $7500 here, but I didn't take it, since that could be said to be a "financial incentive"? ;) :)

--Darin

You're kidding right?

b2bonez

12-03-06, 10:13 AM

I just realized, this is yet another broken promise from Sony. They never shipped the 400,000 within a week. Another quote from the Forbes article you linked.

And at least one group of hardcore gamers agrees--they’re the ones that camped out in the rain Thursday to get their hands on one of the 400,000 units on U.S. soil. More are on the way within a week, and Sony says a total of 1 million will make it to the U.S. by the end of 2006.

The global sales number according to nexgenwars.com

ps3 = 357,006

We're two weeks out from the launch and their haven't been 400,000 shipped globally, let alone in the U.S. and there's no cavalry in site.

Why does it matter? The studios know that only a percentage of PS3 buyers will turn into BD movie watchers. The trojan horse strategy depends on the kind of huge volume that the dominant gaming console can generate (think PS2 volumes). So while there may be more BD capable players now than HD-DVD (though we don't know the numbers for the xbox add-on), it doesn't translate 1:1 to BD watchers and more importantly BD sales.

How much longer before studios start to feel like they've been taken for a ride?

Why do you still trust Sony and put faith in them delivering on their promises?

Duh ??? Time for a reality check.. You need to wake up and smell the HW. So far Toshiba has delivered the A1 for $499 and Sony has delivered the PS3 for $499. If you don't see an inherent difference in quality of product and value for dollar cost between those two products, then you are just talking "party line". Why all this praise keeps getting heaped on such a barely functional example of a HD player (A1) is beyond me... :confused:

If Sony had come out with a product like the A1 they would have been laughed out business. Get real folks, the only excellent bit of HD-DVD so far has been the maturity of MSs VC-1 encoder and the results that got stuck on a disc.

b2b

2Channel

12-03-06, 12:13 PM

Duh ??? Time for a reality check.. You need to wake up and smell the HW. So far Toshiba has delivered the A1 for $499 and Sony has delivered the PS3 for $499. If you don't see an inherent difference in quality of product and value for dollar cost between those two products, then you are just talking "party line". Why all this praise keeps getting heaped on such a barely functional example of a HD player (A1) is beyond me... :confused:

If Sony had come out with a product like the A1 they would have been laughed out business. Get real folks, the only excellent bit of HD-DVD so far has been the maturity of MSs VC-1 encoder and the results that got stuck on a disc.

b2b

I don't remember praising the A1 other than to say it was a smart strategy to come to market quicker with a player priced at the $500 level. And I get your point, you like Sony because they did do a nice job on the PS3 as a player.

PS3 vs. the A1. Yes, from a hardware design perspective the PS3 is a better player (unless you're on of the few people that's going to run into the scaler problem on the PS3). The PS3 also shipped 7 months after the A1. That aside, Software based CPU playback is great for the consumer because Sony can update the box down the road to add BD-Live and other functionality that's not here yet. 1080p24 output in a future software upgrade is a really nice touch as well (I hope they follow through on that one). The problem with the PS3 is not its design, it's the fact that it's targeted to teenage boys willing to wait in line to get one. With tight supply of components and therefore players, how long before a decent number of people interested in BD actually can get their hands on one? With the supply constraints of the PS3, the attach rates are going to be terrible.

If Sony had come out with the A1? Um....I think you'd be saying that they were so much faster to market delivering a great product at a great price, and the firmware updates have taken care of the bugs. Come on...you can tell us. ;)

2Channel

12-03-06, 12:32 PM

In light of all their other talking points essentially vanished by now (a variety of BD players in the market, 50 GB discs in the market, PQ/use of newer codecs obviously a studio issue, not a format issue) it's quite interesting how HD-DVD supporter's last straw has become this "Sony is not delivering as many PS3s as they promised – the studios will turn neutral soon" argument. This is understandable as HD-DVD can only get so far with the studio support they now have. The facts are that Sony is selling PS3s as fast as they can make them, that supply will get better and better and that it's a damn great BD player. I'm sure the studios will give Sony credit for delivering a quality product and have a long-term strategy looking way beyond launch day sales. I'm not a betting guy but if I was my money would be on Universal turning neutral rather than Sony or Fox.

My point of view on this.......Sony has the reverse Midas touch when it come to launching formats. They continue to find ways to fail over and over again, and I believe it stems back from corporate culture problems within the organization.

If you like Sony, you believe they're delivering a good value to you as the customer, by all means, have at it.

I'm sure the movie studios will give Sony credit (or blame) for BD disc sales numbers. They could care less about the rest.

b2bonez

12-03-06, 12:47 PM

I don't remember praising the A1 other than to say it was a smart strategy to come to market quicker with a player priced at the $500 level. And I get your point, you like Sony because they did do a nice job on the PS3 as a player.

PS3 vs. the A1. Yes, from a hardware design perspective the PS3 is a better player (unless you're on of the few people that's going to run into the scaler problem on the PS3). The PS3 also shipped 7 months after the A1. That aside, Software based CPU playback is great for the consumer because Sony can update the box down the road to add BD-Live and other functionality that's not here yet. 1080p24 output in a future software upgrade is a really nice touch as well (I hope they follow through on that one). The problem with the PS3 is not its design, it's the fact that it's targeted to teenage boys willing to wait in line to get one. With tight supply of components and therefore players, how long before a decent number of people interested in BD actually can get their hands on one? With the supply constraints of the PS3, the attach rates are going to be terrible.

If Sony had come out with the A1? Um....I think you'd be saying that they were so much faster to market delivering a great product at a great price, and the firmware updates have taken care of the bugs. Come on...you can tell us. ;)

How about the actual users with 2.0 FW. ?? They can tell you... ;)
So how does King Kong behave after 2.0 ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4096

64% "success" rate ?? :confused:

b2b

2Channel

12-03-06, 01:07 PM

I agree. I hope we're wrong, but I don't see it.

Yeah, I hope so too.

Of course not. The reference was to a claim from an MS rep of estimates. Not an AVS poster. And the player estimates probably came from the Toshiba president:

Toshiba Debuts Second-Gen HD DVD Players (http://techbuilder.org/news/194400562)

I missunderstood you then. The original post from Richard Paul on the subject pointed out that the AVS poster did not have a reliable track record.

Originally, Toshiba was saying 300K by the end of year, and 500K by fiscal year end (also March).

Can you reconcile those numbers with your opinion stated above?

Gary

"We expect that the sales of HD DVD products by March will reach the initially planned 600,000 units," said Fujii.

It looks like Mr. Fuji has increased their sales projection from 500K to 600K by March 07, and no change (at least in this interview) to the original 300K of HD-DVD players by the end of 06. Since Toshiba is producing the 360 add-on for Microsoft, I would assume that his numbers count those units along with the stand alone players they're making.

I hadn't seen these projections before. It gives me more hope for the survival of HD media in general. Unlike the PS3 numbers, these are people laying down cash specifically for the purpose of watching HD movies.

2Channel

12-03-06, 01:18 PM

How about the actual users with 2.0 FW. ?? They can tell you... ;)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4096

64% "success" rate ?? :confused:

b2b

Touche b2b. You haven't been stuffing the ballot box, have you? ;)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9053075#post9053075

But on a serious note, it's odd that the same player with the same firmware would experience different results with the same disc. Shades of Samsung here?

From reading the posts it seems like some people resolved this by cleaning their discs better. I'm sure with BD we don't have to worry about such mundane things though. ;)

Eternal_Sunshine

12-03-06, 01:33 PM

If you like Sony, you believe they're delivering a good value to you as the customer, by all means, have at it.

You don't think the PS3 is good value?

I'm sure the movie studios will give Sony credit (or blame) for BD disc sales numbers. They could care less about the rest.

Sure, but don't you think there is a rather close relation between the PS3's quality as a BD player and BD discs sold, at least in these very early days of the "format war"? It is BD's entry level player after all, at least for now.

Kosty

12-03-06, 01:46 PM

How about the actual users with 2.0 FW. ?? They can tell you... ;) http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4096
64% "success" rate ?? :confused:

Problems experienced with King Kong Well once again you are misleading by failing to put the phrase "successful" in context. :)

If you go to the actual thread that the poll data came from you get the definitions the poll author specified.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=757950
After a few weeks of various posts of experiences by members that upgraded to version 2.0 just to see King Kong, we need data how successful this has been.

I have set this up to find out what the success rate is by the following breakdown:
64.29% (45) Successful= no glitch whatsoever
15.71% (11) Near Success= 1-2 minor glitch that was fixed by a simple press of the PAUSE button
14.29% (10) Unsuccessful= more than 2 glitches but tolerable
04.29% (03) Pitiful= Too much glitches rendering it unwatchable by the owner
01.43% (01) Other= Post your reason please
This poll are for stand-alone player owners, no offense intended.

So actually only 3 (4.29%) of the small self reported sample of 70 people said they problems were so bad they couldn't enjoy the disc.

It was also a closed poll so we don't know who voted, all sort of mischief could be there (people who don't own a player in the specified format have been found voting on open polls)

45 + 11 + 10 = 66 of the 70 people voting said they had none, 1-2 minor glitches, or more than 2 glitches but tolerable. So at least 95% still enjoyed the movie, even with this small self selected sample.

If King Kong was a real problem, we probably would have heard about it in some other reports by now.

I'm not saying that any glitches are a good thing, I'm just saying the problem may not be as widespread as you make it out to be. A lot of those guys reporting may also have used rental discs from Netflix and so expected some smudges and skipping issues.

I personally had a playback problem with my loaned copy of King Kong. It lost audio sync/audio dropped out twice. I took the disc out and saw a big greasy fingerprint on it. Cleaned it and it played no problem after that. It could be that the VC-1 compression is so effective that the first generation players are more subject to skipping when a critical data layer is smudged because there is less redundant data to refer too. BTW that was the first time I had a real playback problem that I even needed to clean a HD DVD before, my HD XA1 and firmware 2.0 works just fine thank you very much.

Since we haven't heard of any reports of this happening with the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option, its probably a G1 issue of buffering and error checking.

I am sure you would have told us if it was widespread with the Xbox 360 bundle. ;)

b2bonez

12-03-06, 01:46 PM

Touche b2b. You haven't been stuffing the ballot box, have you? ;)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9053075#post9053075

But on a serious note, it's odd that the same player with the same firmware would experience different results with the same disc. Shades of Samsung here?

From reading the posts it seems like some people resolved this by cleaning their discs better. I'm sure with BD we don't have to worry about such mundane things though. ;)

No, I don't do things like that. By all appearances it's not even necessary. ;)

The honest answers of the users is enough to show the problem. If there was ballot stuffing the real users would be all over it screaming "foul".

b2b

b2bonez

12-03-06, 02:02 PM

Well once again you are misleading by failing to put the phrase "successful" in context. :)

If you go to the actual thread that the poll data came from you get the definitions the poll author specified.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=757950

So actually only 3 (4.29%) of the small self reported sample of 70 people said they problems were so bad they couldn't enjoy the disc.

It was also a closed poll so we don't know who voted, all sort of mischief could be there (people who don't own a player in the specified format have been found voting on open polls)

45 + 11 + 10 = 66 of the 70 people voting said they had none, 1-2 minor glitches, or more than 2 glitches but tolerable. So at least 95% still enjoyed the movie, even with this small self selected sample.

If King Kong was a real problem, we probably would have heard about it in some other reports by now.

I'm not saying that any glitches are a good thing, I'm just saying the problem may not be as widespread as you make it out to be. A lot of those guys reporting may also have used rental discs from Netflix and so expected some smudges and skipping issues.

I personally had a playback problem with my loaned copy of King Kong. It lost audio sync/audio dropped out twice. I took the disc out and saw a big greasy fingerprint on it. Cleaned it and it played no problem after that. It could be that the VC-1 compression is so effective that the first generation players are more subject to skipping when a critical data layer is smudged because there is less redundant data to refer too.

Since we haven't heard of any reports of this happening with the Xbox 360 HD DVD movie player option, its probably a G1 issue of buffering and error checking.

I am sure you would have told us if it was widespread with the Xbox 360 bundle. ;)

Maybe your definitions are different than mine, but glitching during playback comes under "not acceptable" in mine. :rolleyes:
64.29% Successful= no glitch whatsoever

This is not a "one disc" or rare occurrence either. The HD-DVD forum is full of reports like this, all the time :eek:

You can rationalize, stick you head in the sand or just plain ignore it (which most folks seem to do), but facts are facts. ;)

The addon has it's own problems with audio sync (with threads on that too..)

b2b

Kosty

12-03-06, 02:19 PM

Maybe your definitions are different than mine, but glitching during playback comes under "not acceptable" in mine. :rolleyes:

This is not a "one disc" or rare occurrence either. The HD-DVD forum is full of reports like this, all the time :eek:

You can rationalize, stick you head in the sand or just plain ignore it (which most folks seem to do), but facts are facts. ;)

The addon has it's own problems with audio sync (with threads on that too..)

b2bFair enough. But 24 people stating a minor problem on a poll here does not a catastrophe make. I would be more concerned if the disc wouldn't play after I wiped off the greasy fingerprint, or if I saw a VB report on widespread problems with it a with a consumer recall demand, and a new disc I bought wouldn't play on my $999 HD player.

Oh, pardon me, sorry about that, so far that's only happened with Blu-ray discs. ;)

dsinger

12-03-06, 02:37 PM

My point of view on this.......Sony has the reverse Midas touch when it come to launching formats. They continue to find ways to fail over and over again, and I believe it stems back from corporate culture problems within the organization.

If you like Sony, you believe they're delivering a good value to you as the customer, by all means, have at it.

I'm sure the movie studios will give Sony credit (or blame) for BD disc sales numbers. They could care less about the rest.

As my few posts may have indicated (e.g. MS-DVD) I have decided to support blu-ray. However, on the subject of Sony I agree with you. For those readers old enough to remember, Sony reminds me of GM in the early 1980s. GM had been on top so long they lost the ability to adapt to market changes and kept putting out inferior products (vs. Japanese and Germans) for years. I have also had more years of experience trying to change corporate cultures than I sometimes care to remember. It's very difficult if bankr