This is my take on blu-ray. The sky high price of blu-ray players cannot make them compete with the hd-dvd format. The only way Blu-Ray could win is if they release the same quantity or close quantity of movies in the same timeframe as hd-dvd does and then people might decide to shell out for the $500-$600 Sony PS3 entertainment center. I think this might be Sony's strategy, I don't know. Why would they offer a Blu-Ray player in the PS3 for so little? Let's say the PS3 without Blu-Ray is worth $350, they'd be providing the Blu-Ray player for $150-$200. Amazing. And then they go on to sell the standalone players for $800-$900? Doesn't make sense. The only thing I see is the strategy of selling the PS3. Oh and the PS3's blu-ray player must be of top notch quality.

Ugh!! Again....

Nothing good can come of this thread, so I think Mods should just lock it.

I agree with the PS3 being a strong reason to get BluRay, but you may be missing the issue. All current BluRays output 1080p. HDVD is coming out with 1080p machines. Announced price 1K. The Sony unit that was delayed because of the pressure of the BluRay is a tank at 1k. The first Sony SD DVD player became a reference model. We couldn't keep it in stock at 1K and the Pany 499 and 699 units set on the shelf. Why? I think the performance and build quality spoke for itself.

I will wait for prices to match HD price. I want both formats but will not fork out the $$ for BR. I paid 399.00 for my Toshiba and would pay the same for a BR. However, as a father of two small children, I refuse to buy any video games for the house. I think the games are fun but not for children. I have them read or do constructive playing. Having said that, I think there are a lot of parents that think the same. Therfore, I do not think PS3 will make it to as many households as expected. I think they will hit big numbers but not as big as if it were a stand alone 399.00 player.

I agree with the PS3 being a strong reason to get BluRay, but you may be missing the issue. All current BluRays output 1080p.
BFD. 1080p is overhyped. Most people won't be able to see the difference at normal viewing distances anyway. Not only that, most people aren't going to ditch their current HDTVs just to get 1080p. 1080p won't be a selling point for a few more years yet. By then, it won't matter because it'll be commonplace.

Ugh!! Again....

Nothing good can come of this thread, so I think Mods should just lock it.
True. But looking at the bright side, don't you appreciate all the support and care of the HD-DVD people in this Blu-Ray forum? Look how they try to bring up as many issues as they can come up with, try to analyze Amazon sophisticated sales statistics. make forecasts, etc, etc, etc ... Actually, judging by their contribution to this forum, I say, they are true Blu-Ray supporters in disguise, don't you find that too? :)

I will wait for prices to match HD price.

I expect you'll be enjoying a player by the spring. Look, there never has been, and never will be a reason why HD DVD players cost substantially less to make than BD players. Now that Toshiba appears to be ending their subsidy of the G1 players (probably to try and attrct more CE manufacturers), you will largely see price parity from here on out, starting in the next 1-6 months as lower-end BD machines appear.

Ugh!! Again....

Nothing good can come of this thread, so I think Mods should just lock it.

You never have anything constuctive to say do you ? You lack the ability to have a rational conversation or and ability to debate so you just attack everyone.

Now go ahead and call the OP a troll and start fighting with everyone so you force the mods to close the thread.

Or you could just get lost and not post in threads that don't interest you.

I will wait for prices to match HD price. I want both formats but will not fork out the $$ for BR. I paid 399.00 for my Toshiba and would pay the same for a BR. However, as a father of two small children, I refuse to buy any video games for the house. I think the games are fun but not for children. I have them read or do constructive playing. Having said that, I think there are a lot of parents that think the same. Therfore, I do not think PS3 will make it to as many households as expected. I think they will hit big numbers but not as big as if it were a stand alone 399.00 player.

It's funny. When WILL Blu-Ray match HD-DVD player prices? Nobody's gonna buy them at their exorbitant prices, ESPECIALLY when you've got an HD-DVD sitting next to it for $300-$400 which shows the same quality. The salesguy will tell the consumer hd-dvd's have less space for extra footage, but I'm betting the consumer won't care looking at the price of the Blu-Ray player. That's why I say the PS3 is the only thing that can save Blu-Ray unless those crazy Blu-Ray prices don't come down steeply and quickly.

You never have anything constuctive to say do you ? You lack the ability to have a rational conversation or and ability to debate so you just attack everyone.

Now go ahead and call the OP a troll and start fighting with everyone so you force the mods to close the thread.

Or you could just get lost and not post in threads that don't interest you.

I don't recall you adding anything rational to any discusiions regarding BD.

Perhaps you should follow your own advice.....

It's funny. When WILL Blu-Ray match HD-DVD player prices? Nobody's gonna buy them at their exorbitant prices, ESPECIALLY when you've got an HD-DVD sitting next to it for $300-$400 which shows the same quality. The salesguy will tell the consumer hd-dvd's have less space for extra footage, but I'm betting the consumer won't care looking at the price of the Blu-Ray player. That's why I say the PS3 is the only thing that can save Blu-Ray unless those crazy Blu-Ray prices don't come down steeply and quickly.
When the consumer looks at nine different companies' Blu-ray players and one company's HD DVD player, he's going to realise that one format is actually better than the other.
This isn't cereal here, it's technology.

BFD. 1080p is overhyped. Most people won't be able to see the difference at normal viewing distances anyway. Not only that, most people aren't going to ditch their current HDTVs just to get 1080p. 1080p won't be a selling point for a few more years yet. By then, it won't matter because it'll be commonplace.

I'm deaf. You may have selective hearing. Please read the last sentance of my note.:D Thanks

Those who think that the contest between Blu-ray and HD-DVD will be substantially decided based on the current set of players, the current player prices, or the current set of available disks all need to get back on their meds.

There is one, and only one, strategically pertinent difference between the two competing high-def DVD formats: disk capacity. All other differences are tactical and ephemeral--which is a fancy way to say all such differences are subject to substantial change over the next few years.

Looking at this month's sales figures are about as likely to reveal the ultimate winner as looking at tea leaves or cow entrails. Assuming there will even be any "winner."

I must say that I am interested in learning more about the protective layer added to Blu-Ray disks. Is it possible to add this to HD disks as well ? Or do they feel that it is only needed on Blu-Ray disks due to the closer layer of info ?

When the consumer looks at nine different companies' Blu-ray players and one company's HD DVD player, he's going to realise that one format is actually better than the other.
This isn't cereal here, it's technology.

It doesn't matter if there are 100 brands of Blu-Ray players. As long as they're $800-$900 no one's gonna pick them over the HD-DVD player. I have to say now though that I've found out there are more movies than I thought (I thought there were only like 25 for each format) when there are a bit more than 100. I now feel like maybe buying a player soon (when there's 500 movies or so, hopefully that won't take long). If the PS3's blu-ray player image quality proves to be of equal quality to the HD-DVD players then I might opt for a PS3. And I think a lot of people might do this too. But not everyone. So the HD-DVD will co-exist with Blu-Ray, sort of the way DVD-R has coexisted with DVD+R I think. I don't know, is it possible for them to co-exist? Cause the way Blu-Ray has done things it looks like it's asking to co-exist and not win the format war.

There is one, and only one, strategically pertinent difference between the two competing high-def DVD formats: disk capacity. All other differences are tactical and ephemeral--which is a fancy way to say all such differences are subject to substantial change over the next few years.
"winner."

I would say that this is not COMPLETELY true. Hd-dvd has a distinct advantage over blu-ray in that it is a much closer cousin to dvd... For this reason, a special burner and special disk is not required to burn and play back HD. Blu ray has yet to work this out and it is still very much a guessing game as to weather or not it can even be worked out.

But more to the point of this thread.... people seem to think this war is beween HD-DVD and blu-ray... IT IS NOT... it hasn't even reached that point yet. Right now the war is between HD and SD.... This war will be won at some point, at which point people will then decide on blu ray or hd-dvd. Either way... it will be a LOOOONG time before a blu ray/hddvd war is won by anybody.

What do you mean a special burner isn't required to burn HD? You mean you could burn HD on a dvd+r? I doubt that much HD fits onto an 8.4GB dvd+r disc anyway. But whoever gets a burner out first for their format (or more spacious discs in HD-DVD's case) will also be a deciding factor over who succeeds.

I would say that this is not COMPLETELY true. Hd-dvd has a distinct advantage over blu-ray in that it is a much closer cousin to dvd... For this reason, a special burner and special disk is not required to burn and play back HD. Blu ray has yet to work this out and it is still very much a guessing game as to weather or not it can even be worked out.

Sorry, but your information is wrong. You cannot use an SD-DVD burner to burn HD-DVD onto an HD-DVD disk (although you can burn SD onto a HD-DVD disk using an SD DVD burner.) [Reference: Toshiba Develops Slim HD DVD Burner for Notebooks (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storage/display/20061003224944.html) (Hint 1: Toshiba would not need to develop an HD-DVD burner if SD DVD burners could do the job; Hint 2: Both Blu-ray and also HD-DVD must use blu lasers--for both reading and writing)]

Of course, there is nothing that prevents SD DVD burners from writing high-def content onto SD DVDs--but that has nothing to do with either Blu-ray or HD-DVD. However, you won't be able to get more than 4.5 GB per layer onto SD DVD disks. Greater capacity requires both non-SD disks and a blue laser.

Right now the war is between HD and SD....

Agreed. All this sturm und drang over Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD endangers the far more important goal of throwing SD into the dustbin of history ASAP.

Sorry, but your information is wrong. You cannot use an SD-DVD burner to burn HD-DVD onto an HD-DVD disk (although you can burn SD onto a HD-DVD disk using an SD DVD burner.) [Reference: Toshiba Develops Slim HD DVD Burner for Notebooks (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storage/display/20061003224944.html) (Hint 1: Toshiba would not need to develop an HD-DVD burner if SD DVD burners could do the job; Hint 2: Both Blu-ray and also HD-DVD must use blu lasers--for both reading and writing)]

Of course, there is nothing that prevents SD DVD burners from writing high-def content onto SD DVDs--but that has nothing to do with either Blu-ray or HD-DVD. However, you won't be able to get more than 4.5 GB per layer onto SD DVD disks. Greater capacity requires both non-SD disks and a blue laser.



Agreed. All this sturm und drang over Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD endangers the far more important goal of throwing SD into the dustbin of history ASAP.

Sorry YOUR information is wrong...

I have burned more than a dozen REAL HD-DVD disks from a standard burner (4.7g disks). This can be done with Pinnacle studio's new hd plugin. It is not only possible but it has been done, not just by me but by MANY others.

I asked once if you could burn high-definition on a standard dvd+r and was told no cause dvd players won't play it. Don't know if hd-dvd players would play it though.

I asked once if you could burn high-definition on a standard dvd+r and was told no cause dvd players won't play it. Don't know if hd-dvd players would play it though.

Not true at all.

Sorry I should correct that. once the dvd has been burned, it can not be read back by a standard burner because it is a real hddvd

However, you won't be able to get more than 4.5 GB per layer onto SD DVD disks.



.

At full bitrate (25000k) you can get 40 minutes on a DL disk. But you can drop the bitrate down as low as 19000 with no noticable affect and get an hour on a disk.... that's good enough for home movies!

Sorry YOUR information is wrong...

I have burned more than a dozen REAL HD-DVD disks from a standard burner (4.7g disks). This can be done with Pinnacle studio's new hd plugin. It is not only possible but it has been done, not just by me but by MANY others.

Everything I said is correct--your claims notwithstanding. In fact, there is no conflict with what you claim and what I claim.

By your own admission, you are burning 4.7g disks. That means you are using the burner's red laser to burn HD content onto the SD layer of the HD-DVD disk, and are not burning anything onto the HD-DVD layer of the disk. You don't even need an HD-DVD writeable disk to do this--you could just use an SD writeable DVD instead. If you recheck what I said above, you will see I already mentioned this.

[Reference: HDV to Pinnacle Studio to HDDVD (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/archive/index.php/t-737975.html)]

There's no reason the same could not be done using an SD DVD burner and a Blu-ray player, since most Blu-ray players will read SD DVDs also--and an MPEG2 transport stream doesn't care what kind of disk it's on (which is why the Toshiba player is able to decode it, either from the SD layer of an HD-DVD disk, or from an SD DVD disk.)

Some old same old from the Blu Boys....Blah Blah CE support....blah blah 1080p....blah blah PS3....blah blah high bitrate.....blah blah blah blah lah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah lah blahblah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Fact of the matter is, HD DVD is outselling BD...FACT. No matter what you guys hide behind, be it specs, game systems, or CE support.....you just cannot out talk yourselves from that fact.

Some old same old from the Blu Boys....Blah Blah CE support....blah blah 1080p....blah blah PS3....blah blah high bitrate.....blah blah blah blah lah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah lah blahblah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Fact of the matter is, HD DVD is outselling BD...FACT. No matter what you guys hide behind, be it specs, game systems, or CE support.....you just cannot out talk yourselves from that fact.

And what will the HD-DVD 'fanboys' hide behind if that changes?

I will wait for prices to match HD price. I want both formats but will not fork out the $$ for BR. I paid 399.00 for my Toshiba and would pay the same for a BR. However, as a father of two small children, I refuse to buy any video games for the house. I think the games are fun but not for children. I have them read or do constructive playing. Having said that, I think there are a lot of parents that think the same. Therfore, I do not think PS3 will make it to as many households as expected. I think they will hit big numbers but not as big as if it were a stand alone 399.00 player.

Why not save three to four hundred dollars, get the ps3 and just not buy any games? unless ps3 is a bad blu-ray player, i've read that it wont display movies in 720p.

Fact of the matter is, HD DVD is outselling BD...FACT.

And SD DVDs outsell HD-DVD by a much larger factor. The point: It's very, very, very early in the game, and the fact that one side has 10 points and the other one is probably not a good predictor of the final score, when at least one side will have scored over a thousand points minimum.

The absolute and relative sales figures will change many times before the winner (if any) is decided. And that fact is far more relevant than the one you are using as a palliative.

Sorry, but your information is wrong. You cannot use an SD-DVD burner to burn HD-DVD onto an HD-DVD disk (although you can burn SD onto a HD-DVD disk using an SD DVD burner.)

I must admit... towards the end of your statement you wallowed and changed a bit.. but the above was your opening line.... which is untrue

Never mind... Isee what has happened here... you misread my original statment... I never said anything about using a standard burner to burn HD-DVD DISKS

Furthermore... Every time this comes up... someone is ALWAYS claiming that the same thing can be done on Blu-ray.... Haven't seen it happen yet... heard a lot of people CLAIMING it though.

The truth is the PS3 is like a $350 game console and a $150-$200 Blu-Ray player. So it is strong competition for HD-DVD (if it's a quality Blu-Ray player). Of course not everyone's gonna wanna spend $500+ for the PS3 so I think both formats will stick around.

I must admit... towards the end of your statement you wallowed and changed a bit.. but the above was your opening line.... which is untrue

Never mind... Isee what has happened here... you misread my original statment... I never said anything about using a standard burner to burn HD-DVD DISKS

Furthermore... Every time this comes up... someone is ALWAYS claiming that the same thing can be done on Blu-ray.... Haven't seen it happen yet... heard a lot of people CLAIMING it though.

You claim I have misread your original post, which said "I would say that this is not COMPLETELY true. Hd-dvd has a distinct advantage over blu-ray in that it is a much closer cousin to dvd... For this reason, a special burner and special disk is not required to burn and play back HD. Blu ray has yet to work this out and it is still very much a guessing game as to weather or not it can even be worked out."

It's true you didn't say "...a special burner and special disk is not required to burn onto the HD-DVD layer of an HD-DVD disk and play black HD content from the HD-DVD layer of an HD-DVD disk." However, your previous statements in the same paragraph make it quite clear that that would the most likely interpretation of whay you said, since what you now claim to have meant by what you said is clearly non-sequitur relative to "Hd-dvd has a distinct advantage over blu-ray" (a sentiment expressed in the context of a discussion about strategic advantage.)

What you are talking about is simply the ability to write an MPEG2 transport stream onto an SD DVD, using an SD DVD burner. Any SD DVD player that has the hardware and software needed to decode MPEG2 transport streams (which is all of them,) and whose hardware and software for SD DVD playback can handle HD content (as far as I know, only the Toshiba HD-DVD players have this ability,) could do what you describe.

Obviously, Toshiba decided to permit its HD-DVD players to route any HD content, regardless of whether it comes from the HD-DVD layer of an HD-DVD disk, or from an SD disk, or from the SD layer of an HD-DVD disk, through the player's hardware and software that handles HD content. There is no reason that other manufacturers could not do the same for their players also, whether those players are standard-def-only, HD-DVD or Blu-ray. For all I know, some of them already have, or will in the near future. I haven't tried it yet on my DMP-BD10, but I will.

Bottom line: There is no strategic advantage for HD-DVD here. Therefore, my original statement is completely correct, and your claim otherwise is false.

Kong - I do agree with your post title.

I think that Bluray's only chance to establish a sales lead over HD DVD was the PS3.

But the sales figures show that the 400,000 PS3's sold to date have had no impact of the sales of Bluray movies, which seems to indicate that the PS3 game machine buyers are not buying Bluray movies, by and large.

http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

This means that it is likely that HD DVD will now continue it's sales dominance.

Which, to me, means more studios will now accept the wishes of HD DVD owners and publish in HD DVD.

Kong - I do agree with your post title.

I think that Bluray's only chance to establish a sales lead over HD DVD was the PS3.

But the sales figures show that the 400,000 PS3's sold to date have had no impact of the sales of Bluray movies, which seems to indicate that the PS3 game machine buyers are not buying Bluray movies, by and large.

http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

This means that it is likely that HD DVD will now continue it's sales dominance.

Which, to me, means more studios will now accept the wishes of HD DVD owners and publish in HD DVD.
Yeah, because it's been a whole 5 days since the PS3 came out.

Give us a break already.

Yep, everybody is still trying to unload their PS3s on ebay. The scalping needs to be done with before we can see what effect PS3s have on BD sales.

Which, to me, means more studios will now accept the wishes of HD DVD owners and publish in HD DVD.


It's a simple matter of supply and demand. Contrary to popular belief, it is not the various studios that will dictate the outcome of this mess.... it's us common people.

In the end, majority voice will dictate the actions of the studios. If the vast majority of the population is HD-dvd then blu ray will end up getting dropped.... which is why i can not for the life of me undestand why the blu ray camp has not dropped prices to be more competitive!?

Even if they have to lose money right now the end result would be profit. It is said that when starting a business one should clearly expect a loss in the first 3 years of operation. Does Sony not understand this?

Although it appears that blu ray is not doing so well, I think it is too early to read the future. But clearly blu ray is being left behind and they need to become a little less greedy. They need to losen up their licensing issues a bit so other campanies can manufacture blu ray devices without such heavy restrictions, and they need to drop prices in order to be more competitive. If they don't, then their greed surely will eventually kill them.... IMO

I would say that this is not COMPLETELY true. Hd-dvd has a distinct advantage over blu-ray in that it is a much closer cousin to dvd... For this reason, a special burner and special disk is not required to burn and play back HD. Blu ray has yet to work this out and it is still very much a guessing game as to weather or not it can even be worked out.


Well, this is the only correct statement here... Rest is so twisted, I don't even know where to start!
First, there is NO such thing as SD "layer" on HD disks... Period.
Second: let's distinguish between MEDIA and the FORMAT, it's NOT this same thing!
All blackbill intended to say, and he was correct, was: You can AUTHOR HD-DVD (using whatever input your software allows) and then burn it on SD-DVD Recordable MEDIA the way it is SEEN by HD-DVD Player as HD-DVD (albeit small one, less than 1/3 capacity of "normal" HD-DVD). It is also true that you can limit bitrate/increase compression (subject to limitations of your authoring/encoding software) to squeeze somewhere around 1hr of play time from such a disk, with (specially using footage from non-professional HD-Cams) negligible loss of quality.
That is NOT POSSIBLE so far using Blu-ray Players. I don't even know if they can read DVD-/+R Disks in the first place... Assuming they can, I guess software could be written to allow such a thing, but so far it didn't happen.
Whole issue has NOTHING to do with "putting" MPEG2 (or anything else for that matter) on any kind of media. Of course you can "put" MPEG2 file on anything (including floppy...) and if computer can physically read given media, and has software player to play it - it will. But even if it would be HD video, it doesn't mean you created HD-DVD (or Blu-ray for that matter) disk.

Kris

In the end, majority voice will dictate the actions of the studios. If the vast majority of the population is HD-dvd then blu ray will end up getting dropped.... which is why i can not for the life of me undestand why the blu ray camp has not dropped prices to be more competitive!?
Because it's still too early. Up to now (and for the next few months), the lack of disc sales will be attributed to the low number of players sold. As more players become available and the PS3 situation becomes more clear, we'll get a better indicator of whether BD is what the consumers want.

Even if they have to lose money right now the end result would be profit. It is said that when starting a business one should clearly expect a loss in the first 3 years of operation. Does Sony not understand this?
They do. The PS3 is being sold for a loss of around $250. The expectation is that the PS3 will be a viable platform for at least 10 years so they can withstand selling it for a loss for at least a couple years.

As of today, I tend to agree with the OP simply because stand-alone BD players are so much more expensive that HD-DVD players. The PS3 pricing trys to correct that.

But realistically speaking, the masses are are not going to flock to the PS3 as their player because it is a game console after all.

Once stand-alone BD player pricing matches HD-DVD player pricing, we'll have what we have in the console community: two competing formats, and the masses will flock to the format that has the movies they are interested in (i.e. CE support).

-T

Those who think that the contest between Blu-ray and HD-DVD will be substantially decided based on the current set of players, the current player prices, or the current set of available disks all need to get back on their meds.

Exactly.

What you are talking about is simply the ability to write an MPEG2 transport stream onto an SD DVD, using an SD DVD burner. Any SD DVD player that has the hardware and software needed to decode MPEG2 transport streams (which is all of them,) and whose hardware and software for SD DVD playback can handle HD content (as far as I know, only the Toshiba HD-DVD players have this ability,) could do what you describe.


You have NOT the slightest idea what you are talking about!!


These are not simple mpegs burned to a disk. For all intents and purposes they are REAL hddvd's. Complete with chapters,menus... just like a real dvd.

They contain a HDdvd_ts folder just like a dvd with a video_ts folder. They instead use EVO files as opposed to VOB's

A standard dvd player CAN NOT PLAY THESE BACK!!! If you try xp claims the disk is RAW and sees no files on the disk. XP CAN NOT EVEN READ THE DISK!!! Did you get that or would you like me to say it again???

Do your home work a little better!!!!

Yeah, of course, I was just trying to explain it to the guy about few posts back... Read my earlier post :)
Funny how some people talk authoritatively about things they don't know anything about, isn't it? We have too many self appointed experts here...

Kris

I must say that I am interested in learning more about the protective layer added to Blu-Ray disks. Is it possible to add this to HD disks as well ? Or do they feel that it is only needed on Blu-Ray disks due to the closer layer of info ?
Yes Yes

Its considered to be not needed on HD DVD discs as the layer is in the middle of the disk just like a DVD. Its a added cost so if its not required manufacturers don't want to add it if it is not required.

HD DVDs will have the same durability issues of DVDs which to most consumers are not a significant issue. But for example Netflix and other DVD rental companies routinely polish their rental DVDs before sending them out.

HD DVD could possibly have additional issues as the pits and lands are smaller than in a DVD but those smudges can also occur with Blu-ray and can be wiped off.

If a deep enough gouge gets into the data layer that's a problem but most DVD knicks aren't that deep. Blu-ray disks are more immune to deep cuts but they really can;t be polished by machine equipment either and must be hand wiped.

Yeah, of course, I was just trying to explain it to the guy about few posts back... Read my earlier post :)
Funny how some people talk authoritatively about things they don't know anything about, isn't it? We have too many self appointed experts here...

Kris

Yeah... just read it. The guy just doesn't seem to get it. He OBVIOUSLY has never done it before, yet he seems to know better than ANYONE else on the board!? Thank the heavens we have such "experts" to come to our rescue when we are so completely lost!

Kong - I do agree with your post title.

I think that Bluray's only chance to establish a sales lead over HD DVD was the PS3.

But the sales figures show that the 400,000 PS3's sold to date have had no impact of the sales of Bluray movies, which seems to indicate that the PS3 game machine buyers are not buying Bluray movies, by and large.

http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

This means that it is likely that HD DVD will now continue it's sales dominance.

Which, to me, means more studios will now accept the wishes of HD DVD owners and publish in HD DVD. Its way too early to tell.

Also there are probably less than 200,000 sold to date. Lets let them play their initial games a bit before we jump to conclusions.

Yes Yes

Its considered to be not needed on HD DVD discs as the layer is in the middle of the disk just like a DVD. Its a added cost so if its not required manufacturers don't want to add it if it is not required.

HD DVDs will have the same durability issues of DVDs which to most consumers are not a significant issue. But for example Netflix and other DVD rental companies routinely polish their rental DVDs before sending them out.

HD DVD could possibly have additional issues as the pits and lands are smaller than in a DVD but those smudges can also occur with Blu-ray and can be wiped off.

If a deep enough gouge gets into the data layer that's a problem but most DVD knicks aren't that deep. Blu-ray disks are more immune to deep cuts but they really can;t be polished by machine equipment either and must be hand wiped.

The problem with the BD's however is that once they are scratched, they can not be repaired, whereas it is not the same with HDdvd. These do scratch easier, but are able to be repaired due to the thicker surface layer.

Yeah, because it's been a whole 5 days since the PS3 came out.

Give us a break already.
hmmm, I seem to recall it started shipping on the 11th, according to posts on the forum. Sony says that 400,000 PS3s have shipped to date in the US - so there should have been some impact.

Its way too early to tell.

Also there are probably less than 200,000 sold to date. Lets let them play their initial games a bit before we jump to conclusions.
Yup - no probs there - let's check at Christmas :)

hmmm, I seem to recall it started shipping on the 11th, according to posts on the forum. Sony says that 400,000 PS3s have shipped to date in the US - so there should have been some impact.

Nope, VB's story today-

PS3 launch light by half
Blu-ray, HD DVD software sales see bump from new players
By Jennifer Netherby, Susanne Ault and George T. Chronis 11/22/2006

NOV. 22 | Retailers and others were left scrambling to fill PlayStation 3 orders last week, with analysts estimating that Sony shipped half of the 400,000 units the company had planned.

Sony didn’t say how many PS3 units it shipped at launch, but analysts and industry sources estimated anywhere between 150,000 and 250,000 units made it to stores. A Sony spokesman said the company would continue to ship units to retailers and expects more than 1 million units out by year-end.

HD DVD debut too

Last week also marked the debut of the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. Microsoft didn’t give shipment numbers, but one industry source estimated the company put out 100,000 units.

Studio and retail sources said Blu-ray and HD DVD disc sales got a bump from the added players to the market. 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment’s X-Men: The Last Stand, which debuted on Blu-ray last Tuesday, became the format’s top-seller in one week, though sales numbers weren’t available by deadline.

Warner Home Video’s Batman Begins, which streeted Oct. 10, took the top spot on HD DVD, followed by Universal Studios Home Entertainment’s King Kong, according to Rentrak Retail Essentials. King Kong also was packaged with a limited number of the Xbox 360 add-on units.

At Virgin Megastores, HD DVD had been outselling Blu-ray nearly four to one, but the gap narrowed last week to three to one, said divisional merchandise manager Bart Saunt.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6394173.html?nid=2705

Yes the PS3 has yet again missed the target number of consoles they were supposed to come out with. The stores just don't have them, raising the number of people who'll say for Christmas "the hell with this I'm getting the Xbox360" or a Wii.

But I finally realized why Sony could sell their PS3's for $500-$600, yet sell their standalone Blu-Ray players for $800-$900. It's because PS3's costs Sony $700-$800 to make and they're willing to take the loss until they start getting profits from games. But with their standalone Blu-Ray players they are not willing to take a profit loss and only sell them at $800-$900. This is just a tale of a superior format that is too costly and trying to compete where it can't.

Edit: Now that I think about it again, the PS3's price doesn't account for a big cpu inside that can process the great graphics that it can. So I guess Sony's strategy is to get people to adopt Blu-Ray with the PS3. I still can't understand why the standalone Blu-Ray players can't be priced down if they can in the PS3.

By the way the PS3 won't have a lifetime of 10 years. The PS1 had a life of around 5 years and so has the PS2. In 5 years there'll be a machine that'll smoke the PS3. That's why people wince at having to spend $500-$600 for a console (yes even if it has Blu-Ray). People don't care, they see the price and it's hard to get the message stick into their heads that it also has a Blu-Ray player. People also don't like to be forced to buy 2 products, which is what the PS3 is.

I still can't understand why the standalone Blu-Ray players can't be priced down if they can in the PS3.
The market for game machines is many times greater than the market for BD players. The PS3 is a game machine first, BD player second.

By the way the PS3 won't have a lifetime of 10 years. The PS1 had a life of around 5 years and so has the PS2. In 5 years there'll be a machine that'll smoke the PS3. That's why people wince at having to spend $500-$600 for a console (yes even if it has Blu-Ray). People don't care, they see the price and it's hard to get the message stick into their heads that it also has a Blu-Ray player. People also don't like to be forced to buy 2 products, which is what the PS3 is.
That 10 years figure was attributed to Sony's CEO of Computer Entertainment. What they believe and what is reality are two different things. :)

I still can't understand why the standalone Blu-Ray players can't be priced down if they can in the PS3.
They did the same thing with the PS2 as well as was done with the XBOX, they take a loss in the hardware for the first few years expecting to make it up in the software. With the standalone, they know it has to pay for itself on its own, their are no games to make back up for a loss on hardware now.

Also I wonder, from what I have read here and other post. Is it true that if you took your own HD video and put on any disc, be it a SD disc, or burned to Blu-Ray that you cant play it on a standalone. I know I had read one post in another thread say that he had this trouble, and someone replied that it was in the standard. So not really sure. I have read that some have burned HD video to a SD disc and played back fine in an HD-DVD player. This would actually be an important thing to me, as later on I plan on getting a nice HD camcorder and would of course want to be able to watch the video I shot on my tv.

Also I wonder, from what I have read here and other post. Is it true that if you took your own HD video and put on any disc, be it a SD disc, or burned to Blu-Ray that you cant play it on a standalone. I know I had read one post in another thread say that he had this trouble, and someone replied that it was in the standard. So not really sure. I have read that some have burned HD video to a SD disc and played back fine in an HD-DVD player. This would actually be an important thing to me, as later on I plan on getting a nice HD camcorder and would of course want to be able to watch the video I shot on my tv.


This is 100% True. I have a Sony HC3 hi def camcorder and burn a lot of HDdvd disks. (but you mention blu ray here and that's a different thing). But as far as HDdvd is concerned. You can disk author HD to a standard 4.7/8.5 disk with any standard burner (complete with menus, chapters, etc) and play it back in the toshiba as a REAL HDdvd. It will not playback however in a standard player after the burn. It is now a REAL HDdvd with REAL HDdvd contents. It contains a HDdvd_ts folder (with EVO files instead of vob files like in a video_ts) It is written in a language that only a HDdvd drive can understand which any standard burner is capable of doing. They however can not READ this language. If you try to put one of these homeburned disks back into your burner for a read, xp sees them as RAW and reports the disk full but no files on the disk.

They playback PERFECTLY in the toshiba. The software that does this the best (so far) is Pinnacle studio 10.7

But there have been some issues noted on the pinnacle board about playback in the xbox 360. Some people ARE running into playback problems on these machines.

Let's be very clear about this though... (and I am not a HDdvd fanboy... all I care about is burning disks cheaply and effectively) THIS CAN NOT BE DONE WITH BLU RAY. Let's just say that again for the hearing impaired... THIS CAN NOT BE DONE WITH BLU RAY. And no... it is not a matter of a "simple firmware update" Blu ray at present lacks the PHYSICAL structure to be able to do this. Maybe the future will change this (i don't see how), but for the moment, to properly disk author with bluray, you MUST have the blu ray burner and blu ray disks.

here is a marketing company following closely whats happening now with ps3.
http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=19876&hed=Wii+Pummels+PS3+in+Online+Buzz&sector=Industries&subsector=EntertainmentAndMedia

Kong - I do agree with your post title.

I think that Bluray's only chance to establish a sales lead over HD DVD was the PS3.

But the sales figures show that the 400,000 PS3's sold to date have had no impact of the sales of Bluray movies, which seems to indicate that the PS3 game machine buyers are not buying Bluray movies, by and large.

http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

This means that it is likely that HD DVD will now continue it's sales dominance.

Which, to me, means more studios will now accept the wishes of HD DVD owners and publish in HD DVD.
you have to admit though PS3 is not even commadning a 1:1 ratio on system to games....how can it even gain a 1:1 ration on blu ray movies to PS3 sales ;)

This is 100% True. I have a Sony HC3 hi def camcorder and burn a lot of HDdvd disks. (but you mention blu ray here and that's a different thing). But as far as HDdvd is concerned. You can disk author HD to a standard 4.7/8.5 disk with any standard burner (complete with menus, chapters, etc) and play it back in the toshiba as a REAL HDdvd. It will not playback however in a standard player after the burn. It is now a REAL HDdvd with REAL HDdvd contents. It contains a HDdvd_ts folder (with EVO files instead of vob files like in a video_ts) It is written in a language that only a HDdvd drive can understand which any standard burner is capable of doing. They however can not READ this language. If you try to put one of these homeburned disks back into your burner for a read, xp sees them as RAW and reports the disk full but no files on the disk.

They playback PERFECTLY in the toshiba. The software that does this the best (so far) is Pinnacle studio 10.7

But there have been some issues noted on the pinnacle board about playback in the xbox 360. Some people ARE running into playback problems on these machines.

Let's be very clear about this though... (and I am not a HDdvd fanboy... all I care about is burning disks cheaply and effectively) THIS CAN NOT BE DONE WITH BLU RAY. Let's just say that again for the hearing impaired... THIS CAN NOT BE DONE WITH BLU RAY. And no... it is not a matter of a "simple firmware update" Blu ray at present lacks the PHYSICAL structure to be able to do this. Maybe the future will change this (i don't see how), but for the moment, to properly disk author with bluray, you MUST have the blu ray burner and blu ray disks.
Perfect, thank you so much. I actually thought this was the case. From what I had read around here some, just wanted to be sure. I sort of feel that the reason it cant do it, is more that they don't want it to do it. Now I don't know this for sure, just a feeling mind you. Since they pushed it to studios as so much better at protecting their movies. If it was able to play a homemade disc with menus, then later on someone could figure out how to get past the copy protection and then make disc on their own, be them pirated or just backups.

Perfect, thank you so much. I actually thought this was the case. From what I had read around here some, just wanted to be sure. I sort of feel that the reason it cant do it, is more that they don't want it to do it. Now I don't know this for sure, just a feeling mind you. Since they pushed it to studios as so much better at protecting their movies. If it was able to play a homemade disc with menus, then later on someone could figure out how to get past the copy protection and then make disc on their own, be them pirated or just backups.

Sorry, I have lost you completely???

This has little to do with copyright protections. In fact, there is a certain amount of copy protection built into the machines themselves (blu ray and HDdvd) For example, In HDdvd you can not play a copyright movie through svideo/component/composite outputs, but you can with a non copyright disk.


But burning disks (bluray or HDdvd) has little to do with copy protection... that's a different matter entirely.

Sorry, I have lost you completely???

This has little to do with copyright protections. In fact, there is a certain amount of copy protection built into the machines themselves (blu ray and HDdvd) For example, In HDdvd you can not play a copyright movie through svideo/component/composite outputs, but you can with a non copyright disk.


But burning disks (bluray or HDdvd) has little to do with copy protection... that's a different matter entirely.
Oh I understand, let me clear up what I was trying to say. That it may be possible they are thinking ahead. Since if you take a current production DVD and rip it and burn it to a DVD, it has no copy protection and appears as a homemade DVD. I was just thinking out loud that maybe the reason for the disc not playing in a Blu-Ray was a way to beat them to the punch so to say. So that when the copy protection of the disc was defeated some day,that even then any disc burned to Blu-Ray still would'nt play in a stand alone. I mean I could be completely wrong here, but was just a thought. I mean I have no idea, could be just something they haven't got around to getting just right really, don't know.

In fact, there is a certain amount of copy protection built into the machines themselves (blu ray and HDdvd) For example, In HDdvd you can not play a copyright movie through svideo/component/composite outputs, but you can with a non copyright disk.


But burning disks (bluray or HDdvd) has little to do with copy protection... that's a different matter entirely.

Well, not exactly...
HD-DVD player, just like every upconverting player WILL play copy-protected SD-DVDs over Composite and S-Video up to their (the connections) max. res. which is 480i, and over Component up to 480p (deinterlaced). Tha't due to DVD Consortium restrictions. It will upconvert those to it's maximum capabilities (currently 1080i as we know) over HDMI connection, since it is HDCP encrypted. Non-copy-protected discs of course will upconvert over Component also, but NOT over S-video or Composite, due to connection's limits.

Kris

PS Forgot: Of course you are right, burning HD-DVDs has nothing to do with copy protection...

K.

Well, not exactly...
HD-DVD player, just like every upconverting player WILL play copy-protected SD-DVDs over Composite and S-Video up to their (the connections) max. res. which is 480i, and over Component up to 480p (deinterlaced). Tha't due to DVD Consortium restrictions. It will upconvert those to it's maximum capabilities (currently 1080i as we know) over HDMI connection, since it is HDCP encrypted. Non-copy-protected discs of course will upconvert over Component also, but NOT over S-video or Composite, due to connection's limits.

Kris

Well... I certainly won't argue this point too deeply... you seem to know what you are saying and to be honest, I'm on pretty thin ice here... don't know enough about this end of the spectrum.

But what I do know is that it warns (right on the side of the HDdvd box) that you can not play copyright material over svid/composite... I have tried... and sure enough it's true. but my homeburns work fine.

Some old same old from the Blu Boys....Blah Blah CE support....blah blah 1080p....blah blah PS3....blah blah high bitrate.....blah blah blah blah lah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah lah blahblah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Fact of the matter is, HD DVD is outselling BD...FACT. No matter what you guys hide behind, be it specs, game systems, or CE support.....you just cannot out talk yourselves from that fact.

Are you including the sales of PS3s in those sales totals? PS3 will decide this battle in favor of Blu-Ray - PS3 will outsell either standalone player for quite a while and why would most people go out and buy an HD-DVD player if they already have a PS3? THey aren't going to do that - they're going to say - why don't I get some blu-ray movies to play on my PS3.

I'm going to get a PS3 when I can find one specifically to play movies on. I may play a game from time to time, but nowhere near as often as I'll watch movies on it.

Are you including the sales of PS3s in those sales totals? PS3 will decide this battle in favor of Blu-Ray - PS3 will outsell either standalone player for quite a while and why would most people go out and buy an HD-DVD player if they already have a PS3? THey aren't going to do that - they're going to say - why don't I get some blu-ray movies to play on my PS3.

I'm going to get a PS3 when I can find one specifically to play movies on. I may play a game from time to time, but nowhere near as often as I'll watch movies on it.
I disagree. First, the vast majority of PS3 players will be used for gaming and not movies. Second, true videophiles will get both formats or they will not be able to watch all movies in high def (unless universal players come out or the studios start releasing all movies in both formats). Third, true videophiles will prefer a stand-alone BD player rather than a gaming console. Nobody really knows how the PS3 will affect the format war due to these factors, but the HD Xbox add-on will certainly negate much of the PS3 effect.

I disagree. First, the vast majority of PS3 players will be used for gaming and not movies. Second, true videophiles will get both formats or they will not be able to watch all movies in high def (unless universal players come out or the studios start releasing all movies in both formats). Third, true videophiles will prefer a stand-alone BD player rather than a gaming console. Nobody really knows how the PS3 will affect the format war due to these factors, but the HD Xbox add-on will certainly negate much of the PS3 effect.
i agree i personally like the stand alone players vs two in one machines. quality is better.

I will wait for prices to match HD price. I want both formats but will not fork out the $$ for BR. I paid 399.00 for my Toshiba and would pay the same for a BR. However, as a father of two small children, I refuse to buy any video games for the house. I think the games are fun but not for children. I have them read or do constructive playing. Having said that, I think there are a lot of parents that think the same. Therfore, I do not think PS3 will make it to as many households as expected. I think they will hit big numbers but not as big as if it were a stand alone 399.00 player.

you may want to revaluate your stand on video games though. granted saints row and those types are not for childern. but all of the other ones have proven to give kids better hand eye coordination skills and decision making skills. that's not me bsing either. it's a proven medical fact! you may be hindering your childs advantage in the world as they get older by refusing them "some" video game playing time as a child

I disagree. First, the vast majority of PS3 players will be used for gaming and not movies. Second, true videophiles will get both formats or they will not be able to watch all movies in high def (unless universal players come out or the studios start releasing all movies in both formats). Third, true videophiles will prefer a stand-alone BD player rather than a gaming console. Nobody really knows how the PS3 will affect the format war due to these factors, but the HD Xbox add-on will certainly negate much of the PS3 effect.

First of all, you way overestimate the impact of videophiles on the overall market. Most people aren't going to buy stand alone players for both formats.

Secondly, I think you underestimate the impact of already having a player for one format. People who buy PS3s get a blu-ray player with the system. People who buy XBox 360s don't. It's an added charge that can only be used for HD-DVD.

Consider a family that buys a PS3 for their kids to play games on their main HDTV. Don't you think those families, from time to time, will watch movies on them?

Consider people who buy a PS3 and an XBox 360. How many of those will pay money to get the HD-DVD add on that is only useful for HD-DVD movies when they already have a blu-ray player.

The thing that HD-DVD needs now to compete with the PS3 effect is for microsoft to replace the built in DVD drive with an HD-DVD drive.

Are you including the sales of PS3s in those sales totals? PS3 will decide this battle in favor of Blu-Ray - PS3 will outsell either standalone player for quite a while and why would most people go out and buy an HD-DVD player if they already have a PS3? THey aren't going to do that - they're going to say - why don't I get some blu-ray movies to play on my PS3.

I'm going to get a PS3 when I can find one specifically to play movies on. I may play a game from time to time, but nowhere near as often as I'll watch movies on it.

See .. this is the common misconception the BR camp has thinking all these PS3 sales are going to convert to BR sales. Only a fraction will.

You also (by you i mean BR camp) in every single post in these threads, completely ignore the hd-dvd addon which has already sold over 100k units and each one of those will be used ONLY for hd-dvd movies guaranteeing increased hd-dvd sales.

The HD-dvd addon effectively nullifies the ps3 advantages. Sure more ps3's will be sold then addons, no question. However I believe an equivilant number of addons will be bought, as ps3's that are used for playing BR movies thus nullifying the ps3.

Anyway by spring time you will see the studio's producing in HD-DVD the demand is quickly growing, superman hd-dvd is a top 100 sale item now, they can not ignore the revenue stream just to stand behind BR which isn't paying off for them.

Consider a family that buys a PS3 for their kids to play games on their main HDTV.
This actually runs to the heart of the question. Everyone knew the PS3 would sell out in the 1st few shipments. The question is whether sales will continue after the initial hard core gamers. Will families be buying the PS3 for their kids, or is it too expensive, compared to the XBox and Wii? Only time will tell. But it's certainly possible that Sony made a big mistake not offering a PS3 w/o BD, and therefore requiring a relatively high price. IMO, at $500-$600 for a game console, they will not have the same success that the PS2 had with average families, especially given the fact that most families do not have an HDTV.

First of all, you way overestimate the impact of videophiles on the overall market. Most people aren't going to buy stand alone players for both formats.

Secondly, I think you underestimate the impact of already having a player for one format. People who buy PS3s get a blu-ray player with the system. People who buy XBox 360s don't. It's an added charge that can only be used for HD-DVD.

Consider a family that buys a PS3 for their kids to play games on their main HDTV. Don't you think those families, from time to time, will watch movies on them?

Consider people who buy a PS3 and an XBox 360. How many of those will pay money to get the HD-DVD add on that is only useful for HD-DVD movies when they already have a blu-ray player.

The thing that HD-DVD needs now to compete with the PS3 effect is for microsoft to replace the built in DVD drive with an HD-DVD drive.

Your on a different page then reality .. having the hd-dvd as an addon option is a GOOD thing. It keeps the Xbox360 price under the PS3 by a significant margin, and it gives people that WANT HD-DVD the ability to get it for a very cheap price. Whereas with the PS3 the millions that will never watch a BR on it paid for it anyway.

Your on a different page then reality .. having the hd-dvd as an addon option is a GOOD thing. It keeps the Xbox360 price under the PS3 by a significant margin, and it gives people that WANT HD-DVD the ability to get it for a very cheap price. Whereas with the PS3 the millions that will never watch a BR on it paid for it anyway.

Interesting... I agree with this statement.... having a separate drive gives peple the choice and keeps the overall price down at the same time.

But I also agree with this statement of Alan's:

First of all, you way overestimate the impact of videophiles on the overall market. Most people aren't going to buy stand alone players for both formats.

Heck.... forget players even.... most people don't even buy movies... they rent them.
I've watched dvd movies for YEARS.... don't remember ever actually buying one (except of course the cartoon videos for my kids)

The most videos I have EVER bought (4 now) is with my new Toshiba player... merely for the reason that they are too new for my local rental stores to carry.

I remember shifting from vhs to dvd.... I didn't bother until the dvd starting dominating the shelves at my rental store. My guess is that it was much the same for other average movie watchers... and it will be the same for the shift fromm dvd to HD

Obviously I can not be classified any kind of real videophile.... but the point is... this is true with most of us

keeping the price down may help sales of XBox vs PS3, but it doesn't help the sales of the HD-DVD add on vs PS3 blu-ray. The question is this

- will gamers choose 1 system over the other or buy both. The only way HD-DVD wins is if people choose XBox over PS3. If people buy both, they aren't going to pay again to get the HD-DVD player.

If people choose 1 system instead of getting both, PS3 has other advantages in technology over XBox beyond the blu-ray drive that offset the price difference, so it's not clear XBox wins that battle. They do have the advantage of being first to market, though.

keeping the price down may help sales of XBox vs PS3, but it doesn't help the sales of the HD-DVD add on vs PS3 blu-ray. The question is this

- will gamers choose 1 system over the other or buy both. The only way HD-DVD wins is if people choose XBox over PS3. If people buy both, they aren't going to pay again to get the HD-DVD player.

If people choose 1 system instead of getting both, PS3 has other advantages in technology over XBox beyond the blu-ray drive that offset the price difference, so it's not clear XBox wins that battle. They do have the advantage of being first to market, though.

First of all, the price of the PS3 is high enough so that you are not going to find too many AVERAGE people buying it... maybe if and when the price comes down it will be a different story.... but for now, I believe anyway, that the vast majority of buyers are hard core gamers that want to play games... not watch movies. You may get the odd one that will go the extra distance to pick up a flick... but for the most part their money will be spent on games.

why do you think because people play games they don't watch movies?

And why do you think there aren't people out there like me who will buy a PS3 strictly as a blu-ray player? I could actually go either way, blu-ray or hd-dvd, but PS3 makes blu-ray price competitive with HD-DVD and will quickly give it a substantial market penetration advantage.

And if $499 were too high for average people to buy, average people wouldn't have computers either.

why do you think because people play games they don't watch movies?

And why do you think there aren't people out there like me who will buy a PS3 strictly as a blu-ray player? I could actually go either way, blu-ray or hd-dvd, but PS3 makes blu-ray price competitive with HD-DVD and will quickly give it a substantial market penetration advantage.

And if $499 were too high for average people to buy, average people wouldn't have computers either.

When people buy a PS3... in their mind they are thinking more along the lines of games not movies... it doesn't necessarily mean they won't watch movies... it just means that most people buy the PS3 for games... the movie playing ability is simply an extra.

There are people like you who buy strictly for the purpose of watching movies, but you are not the average.

Prices are extremely relitive things. People base the level of a price (too high/too low) on what else similar is available on the market. When you buy a loaf of bread, how do you know that "bob" bread has a high price tag.... well... because the price of "frank" bread and "hilda" bread on the next shelf is at a much lower price. $500 or $600 (here in Canada) is a FAR cry from what the PS2 cost.

I am not a game nut.... I don't see too much of a problem buying a PS2, but the price of the PS3.... forget it

Why did you buy a PS3 strictly for movies... I am not you, but I would assume it's cheaper to watch movies on a PS3 relitive to what a BR player costs.

Many people have an AVERAGE computer bought at an AVERAGE price relitive to a high priced super machine that they chose not to own as it was too expensive

You would not for a minute buy a loaf of bread for $500... but you would jump at the chance to own a house for $500... price is EXTREMELY relitive.

This is not to say that people don't buy expensive things... people tend to pay a price based on a level of importance to them.... I don't own any kind of expensive game player, and never will. BUt one of my BIG hobbies is video editing... I do have what one would describe as a super computer.

keeping the price down may help sales of XBox vs PS3, but it doesn't help the sales of the HD-DVD add on vs PS3 blu-ray. The question is this

- will gamers choose 1 system over the other or buy both. The only way HD-DVD wins is if people choose XBox over PS3. If people buy both, they aren't going to pay again to get the HD-DVD player.

If people choose 1 system instead of getting both, PS3 has other advantages in technology over XBox beyond the blu-ray drive that offset the price difference, so it's not clear XBox wins that battle. They do have the advantage of being first to market, though.

The problem with this argument is that sales of the addon are doing EXTREMELY well. And every single sale of an add-on is the equiv of a STB as the only reason to buy it is to watch HD-DVD movies.

This is all moot .. just watch sales will continue to be strong for HD-DVD and weak for blu-ray (top 100 movies for hd-dvd is NOT something studios can or will ignore they will be jumping onto the hd-dvd market soon).

HD-DVD has only one direction to go up and up and up as momentum continues to build. BR however continues to fizzle with bad marketing decisions.

how to you expect things to change in the first week or two of PS3 availability? It'll be at least a good 2 months before you can gauge the impact the PS3 will have on Blu-ray sales and likely longer than that - give it at least until you can buy the PS3 off the self at any best buy or walmart in the country. Only then will you get an idea just how many people are willing to buy them for blu-ray players.

I don't have a ps3 yet because I am not waiting in line 3 days for a DVD player. I will buy one the first time I see one on the shelf, though. And I will primarily use it as a movie player.

I am going to get a PS3, but it will be a strictly temporary BD player. I'll use it to be format neutral until a dual player comes out or the prices drop on a stand alone BD player to complement my HD-A1.

Given the great quality of the PS3's Blu-ray playback I think that people will buy the console for multiple reasons. Some people will buy it simply because it is a very capable $500 Blu-ray player. Some will buy it for all its media capabilities. Some will buy it for the next-gen gaming. But most often people will buy it because it does all of these things and really is an incredible deal at the price it is being offered.

Time and time again I see people in these forums naively assume that gamers don't like movies. As someone who has played video games intensely for over twenty years and who has been closely involved in "gamer culture", I can tell you this view is completely false. In fact, I would have to say that gamers on average are much more likely to also be home theater nuts than members of the general public. I know that is certainly true of myself and most of my gaming friends.

The PS3 has barely been on the market for a week and many of the systems bought were bought as Christmas gifts or Ebay resells. The number of people actually using them at this point is quite obviously low.

PS3 will definitely have a noticeable impact on the success or failure of the Blu-ray format. The same is also true to a very slightly lesser degree of the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360.
But despite the distorted perceptions of the hardcore AV enthusiast who tends to give undeserved weight to the current status of each format, this war has a long way to go before deciding a victor. A few commencing shots have been fired but the major battles have yet to be fought. It has been mere months since these formats have entered the market and already some are ready to declare a winner. Unfortunately, it will very likely be years (if ever) before one of them becomes the clearly preferred format. At this early point in time HD DVD is ahead in sales and also has generally better picture quality but the sales of either HD format is still very low compared to the sales of the format they both seek to replace and image quality is becoming ever more equal between the two formats. For perspective on the current situation we should remember that Betamax was the most popular video format in 1983 but by 1985 the market had swung wildly in favor of VHS. It is also important to note that Sony did not concede defeat and release their own VHS recorder until 1988, more than a decade after the release of their first Betamax recorder. So those expecting to see Sony Pictures/Columbia Tristar titles on HD DVD any time soon--don't hold your breath!

For these reasons I think that HD movie enthusiasts, such as myself, who don't want to be extremely limited in what movies they can watch in high-def are better off supporting both formats. And the PS3 is a very nice and economical way to get into Blu-ray.

Given the great quality of the PS3's Blu-ray playback I think that people will buy the console for multiple reasons. Some people will buy it simply because it is a very capable $500 Blu-ray player. Some will buy it for all its media capabilities. Some will buy it for the next-gen gaming. But most often people will buy it because it does all of these things and really is an incredible deal at the price it is being offered.

Time and time again I see people in these forums naively assume that gamers don't like movies. As someone who has played video games intensely for over twenty years and who has been closely involved in "gamer culture", I can tell you this view is completely false. In fact, I would have to say that gamers on average are much more likely to also be home theater nuts than members of the general public. I know that is certainly true of myself and most of my gaming friends.

The PS3 has barely been on the market for a week and many of the systems bought were bought as Christmas gifts or Ebay resells. The number of people actually using them at this point is quite obviously low.

PS3 will definitely have a noticeable impact on the success or failure of the Blu-ray format. The same is also true to a very slightly lesser degree of the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360.
But despite the distorted perceptions of the hardcore AV enthusiast who tends to give undeserved weight to the current status of each format, this war has a long way to go before deciding a victor. A few commencing shots have been fired but the major battles have yet to be fought. It has been mere months since these formats have entered the market and already some are ready to declare a winner. Unfortunately, it will very likely be years (if ever) before one of them becomes the clearly preferred format. At this early point in time HD DVD is ahead in sales and also has generally better picture quality but the sales of either HD format is still very low compared to the sales of the format they both seek to replace and image quality is becoming ever more equal between the two formats. For perspective on the current situation we should remember that Betamax was the most popular video format in 1983 but by 1985 the market had swung wildly in favor of VHS. It is also important to note that Sony did not concede defeat and release their own VHS recorder until 1988, more than a decade after the release of their first Betamax recorder. So those expecting to see Sony Pictures/Columbia Tristar titles on HD DVD any time soon--don't hold your breath!

For these reasons I think that HD movie enthusiasts, such as myself, who don't want to be extremely limited in what movies they can watch in high-def are better off supporting both formats. And the PS3 is a very nice and economical way to get into Blu-ray.


I don't think anybody said that gamers DON'T LIKE movies... this I would find hard to believe... everybody likes movies. But I do think that a gamers priorities are in a different place. There is another thread on this board somewhere (too lazy to find it) mentions that many PS3's at a particular BB were sold but not one person bought a movie along with their PS3 machines. This is a perfect example of what I am talking about. Sooner or later they will get around to buying a movie or 2... but that is not their main purpose for buying the machine

Not withstanding... you have to remember that you (as well as most other people on this board) are quite the enthusiasts when it comes to this sort of thing, and account for a VERY small part of the population. The fact is that the AVERAGE consumer does not think the way the people on this board think. When the average consumer thinks about games, they think PS3,xbox, etc. When they think movies, they think stand alone players. A very small part of the population actually thinks about dual purpose machines. You will certainly not see a PS3 sitting in "Ma and Pa Kettle's" home. If Ma and Pa Kettle are interested in HD movies, they will get a stand-alone palyer. My kid's PS2 is downstairs... where it belongs. I would not for a minute bring it up to the living room to be used for dual purpose. I don't want kids in my living room! I have a stnd alone dvd player and a good quality tv in the living room for the wife and I. Sooner or later when I get around to it, I will build a movie room downstairs... the PS2 won't be there either... I don't want kids in my movie room!!!

As someone mentioned above the xbox drives are selling extremely well though... and there can be no mistake here... these ar being bought for movies.

I do agree though that this format war is going to go on for a while though... and it won't REALLY start until HD movies start dominating the sd-dvd's at the local rental store, and ALL machine prices come down to earth. Until then most people are quite satisfied with regular dvd's.

Your on a different page then reality .. having the hd-dvd as an addon option is a GOOD thing. It keeps the Xbox360 price under the PS3 by a significant margin, and it gives people that WANT HD-DVD the ability to get it for a very cheap price. Whereas with the PS3 the millions that will never watch a BR on it paid for it anyway.

Yep, the way I think it will work is the 360 will sell by itself and as months go bye the new 360 owner will start to look at the cheap 360 hd-dvd add-on. The add-on is a bit later secondary purchase for many 360 owners I believe, the 360 buyer perspective remains cheaper due to these being seperate even in the end they do end up buying both.

I think Ill add somthing to this discussion. Im no videophile and Im also not a hardcore gamer. Im in my mid twenties got some disposible cash and my last video game system was a PS2, that for the latter half of its life did nothing but collect dust. I got a boost in the payrol and recently picked up a nice 32 inch Hi-def LCD. It took me awhile but I had been keeping a close eye on what HD had to offer. My first taste of HD was cable. I was BLOWN away, I could see the football! and I could see everyones wrinkles...AWSOME. Well the wrinkle part is kinda grose...but well..hey ITS HD MAN!

Immediatly my thoughts went to "what else can I see in HD?". Well then I got an upconverting DVD player. It pretty nice I must say, but nothing revolutionary. It made watching my old DVDs alot more fun. Getting rid of the letter boxes was quite enough to keep me happy sorta.

Then I started thinking...well wow I remember how freakin awsome the 360 games looked in demo koisk with the HD set. So I went and checked out my buddies 360...ehh the machine itself looked so so, it was noisy and the power brink kinda turned me off to it. It wasnt going to be a sexy addtition to my growing HD setup. Then I realized the PS3 was coming, with very little thought...(aslong as I could get my hands on one) THAT would be my next gen system. I managed to pick one up online and it arrived yesterday. It came with games so that required no work. The gaming expierence was great, Resistance is alot of fun. After about 4 or five hours I ran off to block buster and picked up a movie. WOW!.........I mean I had expected a slick gaming machine but this BD thing is like a freakin BONUS!...WOW lol. To put it mildly the movies looked better than anything I had ever seen at home.

I know I sound like a newb...but hell I am and I think I represent a very common demographic in the video entertainment market. HD and Blu-rey mean little to me...but since my newest toy plays BD...that all I see. And I can tell you guys right now, If I can help it I wont be renting or buying much on DVD from here on in. The future of movies has arrived for me...and its called Blu-rey.

^^ that only works for HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray if the XBox 360 ends up outselling the PS3 by a wide margin and the people who look at it like that don't end up buying both systems.

As far as the post about opening day PS3 sales not including movies, a little reality needs to be added here. Like I said before, I am not waiting in line 3 days to buy a DVD players. But I did show up at walmart at midnight just in case they had an extra $499 player. I figured it was a longshot, but it's only 2 minutes from my house and I do live in a small town, which I thought would help my very slim chances.

Anyway, they had a total of 12 systems. Of the 12 people they sold them to, only 2 bought them to keep, the rest bought them to sell. I went by Best Buy the next morning to see if they would put me on a waiting list. THey had 26 PS3s. Not one person I saw leaving had anything else in their bag. No movies, no games, no extra controllers. Nothing. Clearly these were people buying them to resell too. So the fact that 1 best buy sold no movies is totally irrelelvant.

Also, what I find interesting on the DVD wars page isn't the sales charts - it's too early to see an impact there. It's the google search chart. After Blu-Ray and HD-DVD trackign each other nicely for a long time, blu-ray search volume has taken a jump since PS3 came out.

And I can tell you guys right now, If I can help it I wont be renting much on DVD from here on it. The future of movies has arrived for me...and its called Blu-rey.

Here you prove one of the points I made above... most people average people don't
buy movies... they rent them.

But many people get into this for many different reasons. My need to get into HD had nothing to do with movies. If it wasn't for the fact that I do a lot of HD video editing, the wife and I would be floating along quite happily on sd-dvd

But yes... you can argue demographics for quite some time, but I don't think too many people (including myself) really know what the score is. You are in your twenties... and I would assume childless. I on the other hand am in my 40's and when I think about a PS3 in my living room, I can just imagine my kids and at least 6 other kids from the area, totally unknown to me, making a hell of a mess of the carpet, the furniture, and ANYTHING else that they touch... Don't worry... given a bit of time you WILL be able to relate to this, and you'll understand EXACTLY what I'm talking about! But the question is... are there more of you... or more of me?

I think there are alot of all of us. I suppose making broad speculatory predictions on who is the market and who isnt is best left to those that make money off of it. I guess all I was trying to say is that Im happy with my PS3 and Im happy with BD. The BD camp has made a fan out of me.

^^ that only works for HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray if the XBox 360 ends up outselling the PS3 by a wide margin and the people who look at it like that don't end up buying both systems.

As far as the post about opening day PS3 sales not including movies, a little reality needs to be added here. Like I said before, I am not waiting in line 3 days to buy a DVD players. But I did show up at walmart at midnight just in case they had an extra $499 player. I figured it was a longshot, but it's only 2 minutes from my house and I do live in a small town, which I thought would help my very slim chances.

Anyway, they had a total of 12 systems. Of the 12 people they sold them to, only 2 bought them to keep, the rest bought them to sell. I went by Best Buy the next morning to see if they would put me on a waiting list. THey had 26 PS3s. Not one person I saw leaving had anything else in their bag. No movies, no games, no extra controllers. Nothing. Clearly these were people buying them to resell too. So the fact that 1 best buy sold no movies is totally irrelelvant.

Also, what I find interesting on the DVD wars page isn't the sales charts - it's too early to see an impact there. It's the google search chart. After Blu-Ray and HD-DVD trackign each other nicely for a long time, blu-ray search volume has taken a jump since PS3 came out.

And that shows the difference right there... I wouldn't bother standing in line for more than 10 minutes for a PS3, OR player of any kind, and I certainly don't too many people that would.... different demographic. And ONE Best buy is hardly a scientific study, but it does show a trend.

It's hardly surprising that a blu ray jump is seen after the release of PS3. I would think something like that would be expected. If it didn't happen then it would defy logic.

you missed my point - most of the people I witnessed buying them on opening day were buying them to sell. Those people didn't buy movies or games - there was no need. Drawing any conclusions from those people is going to be misleading.

They've now been out for all of a week and some expect to see dramatic change in the sales of blu-ray movies, give those units time to be actually sold and shipped. You also have to wait for ones bought as christmas presents to actually be given as presents. It's far, far too early to draw conclusions from sales of blu-ray movies.

you missed my point - most of the people I witnessed buying them on opening day were buying them to sell. Those people didn't buy movies or games - there was no need.

I did not miss your point... I just very tactfully omitted it, because the truth is you have ABSOLUTELY no proof, evidence, or justification to make that kind of statement. Sure.... my guess is that there were a few in line for no other reason than to resell at a profit... But there is NO ONE here that is qualified enough to include the term "Most people".

There is simply no way that one can call this a fact of ANY kind.... it PURE speculation on your part.

your position is noting more than pure speculation too - my point is that you can't claim PS3 isn't going to impact blu-ray sales at this point - it's way too early. Wait until anyone can go into a store and buy a PS3 off the shelf. Only then will you be able to say it's not significantly impacting sales. You simply can't make that claim in week 1. Some are bought to resell - in my own experience, it was 10 out of 12. Those haven't had time to be sold and shipped. Some are bought as presents - those won't be opened for a month.

and why do you believe my first hand observations have less validity than your second hand account? You want to draw general conclusions from one best buy account but reject any conclusions from my experience at best buy and walmart.

If people don't buy a single movie or game with their PS3, are we to conclude the PS3 won't sell movies or games?

your position is noting more than pure speculation too - my point is that you can't claim PS3 isn't going to impact blu-ray sales at this point - it's way too early. Wait until anyone can go into a store and buy a PS3 off the shelf. Only then will you be able to say it's not significantly impacting sales. You simply can't make that claim in week 1. Some are bought to resell - in my own experience, it was 10 out of 12. Those haven't had time to be sold and shipped. Some are bought as presents - those won't be opened for a month.

Come on...

First I have not once in this discussion passed myself off as being anything more than speculative, and second, I never said for a second that PS3 would not have an impact... in fact I have said quite the opposite. I have also said that this format war won't even begin until HD video starts seriously penetrating the rental industry.

And your claim of "10 of 12" I suspect is way out to lunch. I have not checked but you could probably do some kind of rudimentry estimate... check the total number of PS3 sales against various sites such as ebay canada, ebay usa... etc.

Of the machines openned, tested, tried, played with, etc... there is enough evidence (at this point anyway) that ps3 did not have the impact on blu ray that was estimated. Maybe in the future this will change... but for now, that's the way it is.

From a miser's perspective less waiting for a dual combo player that imo will be coming. Buying the 360/addon and Ps3 is the best overall value for getting into all of this your getting two things with each for the price of one. For $1300 plus two monthly subscriptions you can have it all. Subs being Block/Netflix for movies for both and something like Gamefly for game for both. Doing that you are working the system the most to your advantage if entertainment dollars to you have to be calculated, for the rich they can just buy there way out of any predicament here.

Come on...

First I have not once in this discussion passed myself off as being anything more than speculative, and second, I never said for a second that PS3 would not have an impact... in fact I have said quite the opposite. I have also said that this format war won't even begin until HD video starts seriously penetrating the rental industry.

And your claim of "10 of 12" I suspect is way out to lunch. I have not checked but you could probably do some kind of rudimentry estimate... check the total number of PS3 sales against various sites such as ebay canada, ebay usa... etc.

Of the machines openned, tested, tried, played with, etc... there is enough evidence (at this point anyway) that ps3 did not have the impact on blu ray that was estimated. Maybe in the future this will change... but for now, that's the way it is.

my claim of 10 in 12 is based on a sample size of 12, nothing more and nothing less. I simply brought it up as one reason people would buy PS3s without buying a movie with it.

And again, it's been 1 week. It's too early to draw any conclusions from amazon movie sales data.

We know a couple of things
- some units were bought for resale
- some were bought for christmas presents

You have to allow time for both things to happen before you can start drawing any conclusions at all about early adopters. And you have to wait until anyone can buy them off the shelf before you can draw conclusions about what typical owners will or will not do in terms of movie viewing. I find it hard to believe that people will buy them and never watch any movies on them. That's what it would take for the built in blu-ray drive in every unit to not be a factor in the HD-DVD vs blu-ray battle.

The one company that now can change the landscape in that battle is Microsoft - and that only happens if they build in a HD-DVD drive instead of making it an accessory.

Bluray sales falling like a stone again on www.thedvdwars.com ...

^^ define falling like a stone.

1 month ago, HD-DVD's Average Sales Rank of Top 10 (which I assume is what you were referring to) was 384, today it's 912.

1 month ago, blu-ray's average was 4176, today it's 3083

Also, that's not really a great stat. Sure, you can use it to see HD-DVD is currently outselling blu-ray, but you can't use it to gauge total sales of either because standard DVD sales for the existing 115,158,683 DVD players are surging ahead of christmas. Staying steady in rankings ahead of christmas would have to mean increased volume sales.

I just don't understand, how anyone can be happy about blue ray. It's twice as expensive, and just as nice. Come on dudes if Blue Ray would bring somthing to the table that HD-DVD doesn't then please justify it now. I'm not a fan of HD-DVD, but it's doing the same thing for half the cost. Yes on paper blue ray should blow HD-DVD right off the charts, but it's not. Tell me what do I get for the extra $600.00 over the HD-DVD unit. or if you can score a PS3 only extra $200.00? I would like to know? Do you get more movies, do you get more features, do you get better PQ?? I would like to know, becuse 1080P isn't really all that much since most movies are only 24 fps, so why do I need 60 fps, how does that help PQ oh wait it really doesn't. Come on tell me why I should, and you should pay 2x to 3x as much for Blue Ray?? WHY? Also this whole Blue Ray VS HD-DVD is only causing problems, nobody wants to invest in a next gen DVD format for fears of a Betamax fiasco. Man I think both BlueRay & HD-DVD will go the way of the dodo bird unless we all make nice, and come up with a unified format or player.

^^ define falling like a stone.

1 month ago, HD-DVD's Average Sales Rank of Top 10 (which I assume is what you were referring to) was 384, today it's 912.

1 month ago, blu-ray's average was 4176, today it's 3083

Also, that's not really a great stat. Sure, you can use it to see HD-DVD is currently outselling blu-ray, but you can't use it to gauge total sales of either because standard DVD sales for the existing 115,158,683 DVD players are surging ahead of christmas. Staying steady in rankings ahead of christmas would have to mean increased volume sales. I also disagree with the dropping like a stone.

My read is that sales have been flat over the Thanksgiving week for both formats. Waiting for cyber Monday sales to kick in today. Should e more interesting to see this week.

It is interesting to see that on the top 10 chart both trendlines are stuck in a band, which is indicative of consistent and accurate data, with the HD DVD trend between 300-900 and the Blu-ray trend between 2000 and 4000.

A lot more volativity on the Blu-ray side but that would be expected with the dramatically lower sales volume of Blu-ray compared to HD DVD.

I thought I'd revisit this thread. Much was made about how HD-DVD movies still had a vastly higher rankings on amazon a week or two after the PS3 came out. I said then that you had to wait until people actually got their PS3s for christmas before you could start looking at trends.

So lets take a look, pull up this page

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

click on the 30 day chart for the first chart and you'll see that Blu-Ray has, in fact, surged since the PS3 and is virtually tied with HD-DVD now.

What has sony sold, as many PS3s in 2 months and Toshiba plans to sell HD-DVD players in the next 12 months? I suspect that in another 2 months, the same charts on Amazon will show Blu-Ray leaving HD-DVD in the dust in terms of sales ranking at Amazon.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the same comparisons using rental data from netflix?