To make my bias clear, the add-on is on its way from the US via an angel from heaven (aka a friend who shall be named in my will) and the PS3's asian release is anxiously awaited.

I thought it would be interesting to see when you guys think Universal will go neutral.

For the record, I think BD only studios are also just as likely to switch to neutral. I am curious about Universal cos the PS3 fulfills all my criteria for home entertainment.

I don't think they will ever have to go neutral...just my opinion.

I voted never, because I believe there is just too much ill will between Universal and Sony.
I also don't see that there is any compelling reason for Universal to consider going neutral. It would be different if BD was smoking HD-DVD in movie sales, but I really don't believe that is the case. I think Sony and Universal will be the last hold outs on their respective sides, with Fox being a close second to Sony on the BD side.

I think we're more likely to see BR exclusive companies go neutral before Universal.

Good to see the poll gaining a bit of traction.
Let's see if the Wisdom of Crowds works for something like this.

Spread the word, my fellow HD-lovers. cheers

Universal won't switch.
For Fox, Disney and Lionsgate - 2007 is the switching year.

Sony will only switch when there's absolutely no other way, i.e. when Blu-ray as a movie format is effectively dead. I don't know how long this will take though.

P.S.: when I say "switch" I really mean "go neutral" of course.

Predict the Great Switch
The day after Fox go's neutral.

Considering the dismal debut of blu-ray, I really doubt U?niversal will be the first to go neutral. Afterall, only a month ago I believe one of the higher ups (maybe even CEO) confirmed HD DVD was the future format for HD and they were sticking with it.

Disney or Lions Gate, on the otherhand might become format neutral in the next 6 mos.

I think we're more likely to see BR exclusive companies go neutral before Universal.I would agree more with this...Universal is dug in deep! I also believe Lions Gate will be first to cross the format line. :)

I dont think Universal is itching to spend a bunch of cash to put movies on BluRay so they can experience dismal sales and lose money.

Universal will be neutral within 6-12 months. Even now, they completely ignore BD at their own laughable folly.

Supporting both formats at this rate can only mean more money to be made. Both formats have proven that they are viable and both formats have nice size and ever growing user bases.

In a perfect world, I'd have every studio support both formats and let the chips roll where they may, but obviously we're never going to see that.

To answer a post questioning my loyalty etc., I would be interested in a poll for BD exclusive studios too.. But I am not worried about that situation cos I am getting the PS3 with HDMI, while my add-on leaves me kinda unsatisfied w/o an HDMI option.

Thus, my personal hope is that Universal goes neutral as soon as possible. And i would happy if Disney, Fox etc. go neutral too. I hope they do so that those who have invested money in the HD-DVD players can enjoy those movies too.

It's about the glorious HD experience, not corporate loyalties (my 2c)

P.S. Keep the poll going and circulate it wider, if you can. thanks

Why are you interested in a poll for BD-exclusive studios? The same 65% of fanboys who voted "never" will vote "1st half of '07" when asked about when Disney or Fox will switch. It's become doctrine, not fact around here.

I would vote never; however, I would hold out hope that maybe the studios would come to an agreement that Universal will offer Blu-ray when Sony, FOX, etc... go neutral.

At this point in time though, I would see the Blu-ray companies approaching the HD DVD companies with this type of "truce" since HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray with every expectation for this to continue AND Universal does not have to worry about the higher production costs of Blu-ray.

I actually think this is the only thing that will save Blu-ray going forward with all the missteps we have seen. If anyone in the Blu-ray camp wants the product to move forward, if it is the technology of the future as we are being told to believe, then I would think you would want this and encourage it to happen.

From a rational point of view all studios should be neutral. Non-neutrality meant killing HD-DVD quickly, but this really seems unlikely, especially with the Addon apparently selling so well. Disney and LG could switch without losing face, but both Fox and Universal have had harsh words for the competing format and would look pretty stupid if they did an about face - but then again, why should they care if they can make a buck?

Let's face it, once everyone can afford it we'll all have a player for each format, except the total fanboys who care more about their "team" than watching the best video available. In a couple of years one of these formats will probably fade away, or perhaps both will because everyone will be downloading their HD content and we'll all be stuck with several large paper weights (assuming we still use paper).

Cheers,

Grant

Why are you interested in a poll for BD-exclusive studios? The same 65% of fanboys who voted "never" will vote "1st half of '07" when asked about when Disney or Fox will switch. It's become doctrine, not fact around here.
Possibly, yes that may happen.

This poll is an experiment in Wisdom of Crowds. Since this crowd is far wiser than the average population on HD matters, its the "Wisdom of a wise crowd".

Let's see if it is correct..

P.S. I really hope people are not voting as fanboys. Why do that when this poll can have no effect on anything? But, I digress.. vote away and get the crowds involved.

cheers

Why are you interested in a poll for BD-exclusive studios? The same 65% of fanboys who voted "never" will vote "1st half of '07" when asked about when Disney or Fox will switch. It's become doctrine, not fact around here.
I expect neither side to budge in the near-term.

However, I do think that if one were to budge in 2007, it is more likely for Disney to go dual-format than Universal, given the current sales numbers of Blu-ray vs. HD DVD, and given the fact that the CEO of Disney himself at one point said that they "probably will publish in both formats".

Didn't-cha know, boy-o? BD will be destroyed in (relatively) short order and thus this question is irrelevant/non-sensical.

Didn't-cha know, boy-o? BD will be destroyed in (relatively) short order and thus this question is irrelevant/non-sensical.

And then you woke up.

And then you woke up.

I hate to say it, but I think you need to wake up. HD DVD is barely staying alive and Blu-ray is bleeding profusely with a weak pulse.

It costs money to release titles in HD. So, no it's not as simple as "if they want to make more money, they'll release on both formats". I wish it were.

We're already seeing signs of at least one studio cutting back on the slower selling format. Hopefully there's enough interest in HD DVD to give HD packaged media a life of it's own.

I voted 2009 or later just because if BD ends up killing off HD DVD then I fully expect them to cash in on a revenue stream the same way that Fox eventually came around to DVD. Just covering my butt. :)

It costs money to release titles in HD. So, no it's not as simple as "if they want to make more money, they'll release on both formats". I wish it were.

It's cheap to issue disc when you have appropriate digital source. If it was not so, pirates in different countries of the world would not produce $3 DVDs digitizing film by themselves :)

I don't have any idea. I would say the answer for both sides would be: When there is real money to be made.

That's when studios made the move with DVD.

Gary

...the same way that Fox eventually came around to DVD.

FOX came around to DVD? Did I miss something? When did my anamorphic transfer of "The Abyss" come out?

Another reason I am supporting HD DVD over Blu-ray with my consumer $'s...the Blu-ray exclusive studios have been all about making the wrong decisions initially in any dealings with technology offered to their customers (Sony, Disney and Fox have always been on the wrong side initially...nothing has proven to me this is any different.)

Sony was on the side of DVD, and fought against DIVX.

It's cheap to issue disc when you have appropriate digital source. If it was not so, pirates in different countries of the world would not produce $3 DVDs digitizing film by themselves :)

While I agree there's lots of room for profit (they do with DVD), creating an HD master, tweaking, editing, encoding the movie and audio are only part of it, then you've got the extras, menu's, packaging, etc... This is not something studios bang out in an hour... or even a day. So I'm guessing it costs a couple hundred thousand for even a run-of-the-mill digital transfer. That means they got to sell at least 25,000 disks to break even. Currently, I bet only a few HD DVD's have turned a profit. Not even sure if ay Blu-ray titles have made the studios any money.

I'll admit, I'm really just throwing numbers out there, but maybe you get the idea, it ain't so simple...

Sony was on the side of DVD, and fought against DIVX.

Oops, sorry...I guess "always" was a slight exaggeration...

BetaMax...Mini-Disk...etc...

So I'm guessing it costs a couple hundred thousand for even a run-of-the-mill digital transfer.
That's sounds quite high, if the studio already a clean source to work with.

However, I'm guessing too.

They will be neutral within 6-12 months because Penton-Man, who basically predicts everything right and is an insider, hinted at it in the same manner he has hinted at everything else he know months ahead of time.

Once Universal goes neutral the war is then over. All major studios and 90% of CE manufacturers will be aligned with one format and we can move on with our lives.

They will be neutral within 6-12 months because Penton-Man, who basically predicts everything right and is an insider, hinted at it in the same manner he has hinted at everything else he know months ahead of time.


Could you provide links to these posts please?

The overall costs of preparing titles for release (encodes, special features, advertising, distribution, etc.) mean that it only makes sense for all studios to support both formats.

If all studios supported all formats, it would also greatly ease the uncertainties that consumers have today. Who can predict which studios' products he will want to buy in the future?

As to the specific question, I voted that Universal would switch at the second half of 2007. I suspect Blu-Ray to be doing well enough then that they will want to amortise their costs over a larger consumer base.

I hate to say it, but I think you need to wake up. HD DVD is barely staying alive and Blu-ray is bleeding profusely with a weak pulse.

Wow, what a bleak outlook. The formats just took off.

In case you haven't noticed, Universal is on the winning team. Winners don't capitulate to losers. It's the other way around. Blu-ray will be nothing more than a PS3 format by Q1 of '08. After that, there will be the Sony forced-liquidation sale in '09. Hmmm, maybe GE can pick up another studio, this time on the cheap. Maybe then we can get some good HD transfers from Sony Studios.

Wow, what a bleak outlook. The formats just took off.

I wish the news was more positive... but this war is costing us.

Costing us? How much do you think it would be costing us if there were no competition. I welcome it for now. I am not even being biased saying that. Everybody knows this war would be costing us a heck of a lot more had it not been a war.

Now, that being said, DIE BR, DIE!

I think the biggest gating factor to Universal going neutral is the Blu-ray camp getting a lot of Blu-ray players in use. If Sony really figures out their manufacturing issues and gets a ton of PS3s out there and in use for movies, that could put a lot of pressure on them, even if HD DVD is selling better. As far as this being on the winning team, this is business and for a studio the most winning position could be supporting both in a year or two. That goes for studios from both sides and especially those who just make their money off movie sales (and don't have other ties like Sony does). In other words, making money is really the name of the game in the long run and going from being on what some consider the "winning side" to neutral could make a studio more of a winner than sticking with one side.

At this point I think Lions Gate is most likely going neutral within 3 months. Down the list I think the next most likely to change their position is Disney, then Universal, then Fox, then Sony. Things could be interesting if the first 3 go neutral, meaning Lions Gate, Disney, and Universal. It would mean that HD DVD had swayed a real big one in Disney, but would also mean that Blu-ray would have all the major studios (assuming nobody went from neutral to exclusive).

--Darin

I think this poll should have been about Fox but, we already have a poll that's yielding the same results

I think the biggest gating factor to Universal going neutral is the Blu-ray camp getting a lot of Blu-ray players in use. If Sony really figures out their manufacturing issues and gets a ton of PS3s out there and in use for movies, that could put a lot of pressure on them, even if HD DVD is selling better. As far as this being on the winning team, this is business and for a studio the most winning position could be supporting both in a year or two. That goes for studios from both sides and especially those who just make their money off movie sales (and don't have other ties like Sony does). In other words, making money is really the name of the game in the long run and going from being on what some consider the "winning side" to neutral could make a studio more of a winner than sticking with one side.

At this point I think Lions Gate is most likely going neutral within 3 months. Down the list I think the next most likely to change their position is Disney, then Universal, then Fox, then Sony. Things could be interesting if the first 3 go neutral, meaning Lions Gate, Disney, and Universal. It would mean that HD DVD had swayed a real big one in Disney, but would also mean that Blu-ray would have all the major studios (assuming nobody went from neutral to exclusive).

--Darin

In the end it's about making money, but there are different time horizons for that. Some sacrifice in the short term, might lead to more money or even power in the long term. Make no mistake, this is just as much about a power grab and backroom deals as it is about software sales in the short term.

Universal and the DVD Forum know that if Universal started releasing VC1 titles on BD tomorrow, that would pretty much end the format war in Blu-rays favor. That's why I don't believe it will happen unless it looks like HD-DVD will lose and only until then. It's that simple.

People should also keep in mind where these rumors of Universal releasing on BD are coming from. All of the ones that I have seen have come from Sony, Pioneer, or some other BDA member, but none from Universal. Obviously, if your the guy at Sony who's job is to get Universal to capitulate, then you are going to be telling your boss "any day now, boss, any day... tomorrow, in fact... yeah, that's the ticket", othewise, it's your ass on the pavement soon.

I think we're more likely to see BR exclusive companies go neutral before Universal.

I agree. Regardless what the BD fanboys think I suspect it will go like this: Lions Gate, Disney, Fox, if they can get some of their releases to work on BD spec machines.

I would agree more with this...Universal is dug in deep! I also believe Lions Gate will be first to cross the format line. :)

Should we take bets? 1Q or 2Q for Lions Gate to cross the line?

Costing us? How much do you think it would be costing us if there were no competition. I welcome it for now. I am not even being biased saying that. Everybody knows this war would be costing us a heck of a lot more had it not been a war.

Now, that being said, DIE BR, DIE!

They would be bleeding us by the gonads.

Does anyone have an idea how much it costs a company to transfer and then press a BD or HD DVD movie. I would assume it costs more for BD but maybe not for the HD Combo releases.

A lower break even number for one format "should" help studios decide which formats to support.

...If Sony really figures out their manufacturing issues and gets a ton of PS3s out there and in use for movies, that could put a lot of pressure on them, even if HD DVD is selling better...

BIG IF...that is the whole problem, expecting what most consumers still consider a high priced gaming console to be the salvation for a movie format ("in use for movies.") The PS2 did not make DVD...and the PS3 will not make Blu-ray. Just as I do not believe the Xbox add-on player to make the argument for HD DVD. These will most likely offset each other...BUT, since the Blu-ray crowd has placed all its marbles on the PS3...IMHO, they lose with a bad strategy...another bad decision in the long string of bad management for Blu-ray.

Many a good idea has been lost and buried because of poor strategy/management. The longer these studios and manufacturers swim in the muck of indecision and denial...the worse they look in the eyes of the consumer public and in turn the worse they look to their stockholders.

I think the biggest gating factor to Universal going neutral is the Blu-ray camp getting a lot of Blu-ray players in use.

Someone mentioned this ... but I think one way forward would be universal supporting BD and the BD exlusive studios becoming neutral as well. Some sort of ceasefire between the camps ...

Their corporate egos will not let them do this.

Their corporate egos will not let them do this.

Exactly! If the consumer had all content available on both formats, BR would choke and die, IMO. Toshiba couldn't produce enough A2's to sell! :D

Toshiba couldn't produce enough A2's to sell!

considering they are having problems shipping even one, that is true today :)

At this point I think Lions Gate is most likely going neutral within 3 months. Down the list I think the next most likely to change their position is Disney, then Universal, then Fox, then Sony. Things could be interesting if the first 3 go neutral, meaning Lions Gate, Disney, and Universal. It would mean that HD DVD had swayed a real big one in Disney, but would also mean that Blu-ray would have all the major studios (assuming nobody went from neutral to exclusive).


LGF being a small studio raises questions of both whether than can afford to choose one side, and afford to release for both sides?

I'm sure it was the LGF exec that made that "if we only knew then what we know now" statement. But, I wonder if they too will simply wait until real money is going to be clearly at play?

If the money isn't there, a switch only makes sense for strategic reasons. Going neutral perpetuates the war, and gurantees endless costs for two formats.

Once it is clear that both formats are going to be around for the long haul, and there is money to be made, then the exclusive studios can make a decision.

For Universal and Disney there is wishful thinking overriding logic on both sides.

Gary

Now that the poll has generated enough responses to be somewhat meaningful, I am impressed by the sheer % that chose 'NEVER'.

If nothing else, it provides an estimate of what % of people are strong HD-DVD supporters, imo. Some supporters may have chosen other options and some BD supporters may have chosen 'NEVER' too, but thats probably a wash, in the final reckoning.

Rather interestingly, the % of "NEVER" always stayed between 60-65%

Thanks to all who voted. Let's check back if and when it happens :)

The day after Fox go's neutral.
More like the day SONY goes neutral (ie... you guessed it.. never..) :D

I think that people forget that just because a studio goes "neutral" doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to put 110% into their offerings on both formats. For example, I still feel that warner is leaning in the hd-dvd camp, even though they release on both. Universal may go neutral, but they may reserve their best titles for hd-dvd. What if warner made the matrix trilogy a timed exclusive on hd-dvd, say for one year? Just because a studio is neutral doesn't mean they won't have a favorite child.

considering they are having problems shipping even one, that is true today :)

but not today :)

A2 already out the door and in people's home.

By all accounts, it has great hardware to complement the superior software.

A2 already out the door and in people's home.

You gotta love when Toshiba comes along and pwnes all the naysayers.

And since an A2 was sold at Best Buy already, that FUD's the "since there are no standalone players" line.

Uh oh...........Happy learned to putt.

but not today :)

A2 already out the door and in people's home.

By all accounts, it has great hardware to complement the superior software.

LOL. Anthony said something like this during the launch of A1. Infact he was saying A1s have been shipped using an Amish plane (with picture, IIRC) ... after someone had already bought a A1 and posted pictures :D

I'd say NEVER. I think its just the same with bluuray until said format fails. Only then will they make movies for the other. Wether it be sony or bluuray

As far as the 360 add on that is being bought to watch HD-DVDs were as the ps3 is primarily for gaming. Some will use it for movies but not a lot.

How many Ps3 are pluged in and working now, I'd guess 50% are wraped and/or on ebay

It is interesting how many people think "NEVER". That outcome implies that either BD dies or both formats die.

I think it means that folks consider that HD DVD sales will continue strongly and Universal will have no reason to switch.

Because HD DVD sales are so strong, I would consider that the BR-exclsuive studios will be the ones who will come under pressure to add HD DVD support.

Universal is in the same position sony is in, they wont switch until one format completely fails and this is why.

Universal is the entertainment division of GE corp, the electronics division is RCA one of only two manufacturers of HD DVD players. HD DVD is the Format GE is pushing, if Universal switches that means its giving Blu-ray an advantage over its own product and/or admitting the failure of its chosen format.


Columbia is the entertainment division of Sony corp, the electronics division is one of only several manufacturers of Blu-ray players. Blu-ray is the Format Sony is pushing, if Sony switches it is giving HD DVD an advantage over its own product and/or admiting the failure of its own product. THATS WHY SONY WILL NEVER SWITCH TO HD DVD.

I understand that Universal doesnt have as much riding on this war as sony (sony might go under if Blu-ray fails), but they are still part of a corporation that is competitive and has a vested interest in HD DVD being the eventual winner.

Well, looks like never for Universal and Sony! On to the next poll.

Cheers,

Grant

I agree with the fact Universal is unlikely to switch unless HD dies and I dont think companies going neutral is as likely to happen as some of you might suggest. Each company needs to release a few quality batches on the respective medias and they need to see sales data over the course of at least a year. It is way, way to early to judge anything now. Ive heard HD sales are higher now but I havent seen any data other than from Amazon and I, and many people I know have never bought a single item of Amazon.

And I dont think companies really wanna go neutral. One format is going to win in the long run and Im not forcing my opinion on which one because it is just my opinion and nothing more. But if there are 4 exclusive on one side and 1 exclusive on the other it is going to take a major happening for any of them to suddenly sway there opinions.

I think the main reason this poll was done with Universal is because at this day, date, and time they are fighting a lopsided battle of exclusiveness and as much as I like a lot of Universal movies , there lineup cant compete with the current BD exclusives.

Universal is in the same position sony is in, they wont switch until one format completely fails and this is why.

Universal is the entertainment division of GE corp, the electronics division is RCA one of only two manufacturers of HD DVD players. HD DVD is the Format GE is pushing, if Universal switches that means its giving Blu-ray an advantage over its own product and/or admitting the failure of its chosen format.


The RCA HD-DVD player is just a rebadged Toshiba. Also the RCA brand is owned by Thompson so your theory does not hold water.

I am not sure why Universal is backing HD-DVD exclusively but I think they are more likely to release on BD than Sony is on HD-DVD. They will switch as soon as they believe their current position is costing them too much money. That could take years.

None of the above are exclusive titles, nor are they groundbreaking.

That assumes they are losing money. If Universal is that set on the HD DVD side, then there is something in their title sales they see that they like.

That assumes they are losing money. If Universal is that set on the HD DVD side, then there is something in their title sales they see that they like.

It is way to early for them to judge potential lost sales by being exclusive to HD-DVD. I can't see either format selling that well for at least a couple of years.

It is way to early for them to judge potential lost sales by being exclusive to HD-DVD. I can't see either format selling that well for at least a couple of years.

Well, I know Warner downgraded their entire HD movie sales projections, but in August they reported that HD DVD sales met or exceeded their expectations.

Now, I imagine Universal is seeing more sales of movies than Warner or Paramount because they are an exclusive and I believe they have the most titles out for the format.

I'm just thinking there has to be a reason Universal is staying HD DVD. Movie sales would be the biggest reason.

Well, I know Warner downgraded their entire HD movie sales projections, but in August they reported that HD DVD sales met or exceeded their expectations.

but they said all is OK before the the downgrade. In other word it is not OK any more.

Now, I imagine Universal is seeing more sales of movies than Warner or Paramount because they are an exclusive and I believe they have the most titles out for the format.

could be, but remember for a studio 20k copies of 5 movies is not as good as 100k of of one.

I'm just thinking there has to be a reason Universal is staying HD DVD. Movie sales would be the biggest reason.

I think the biggest reason is that it is early. neither side has sales large enough to be interesting that is why it is status quo since many months before either format came out.

I think the biggest reason is that it is early. neither side has sales large enough to be interesting that is why it is status quo since many months before either format came out.
Yup, its inertia. No studio is going to change strategy until good economic reasons impel it to (even if they know that a change is inevitable, it makes sense to wait for the inevitable).

Then the line about maximising value and responsibility to stockholders shall be trotted out.

Well, I know Warner downgraded their entire HD movie sales projections, but in August they reported that HD DVD sales met or exceeded their expectations.

Now, I imagine Universal is seeing more sales of movies than Warner or Paramount because they are an exclusive and I believe they have the most titles out for the format.

I'm just thinking there has to be a reason Universal is staying HD DVD. Movie sales would be the biggest reason.

Being exclusive is going to reduce their sales, not increase them.

Being exclusive is going to reduce their sales, not increase them.

Please tell that to Disney and Fox.

And for the record, my official position on this forum several times over is that along with Fox and Disney, Universal SHOULD be neutral as well. As Warner says "We let the consumer decide".

What I was saying was that Universal has to see something in HD DVD sales that makes them not desire or need to go neutral.

Please tell that to Disney and Fox.

And for the record, my official position on this forum several times over is that along with Fox and Disney, Universal SHOULD be neutral as well. As Warner says "We let the consumer decide".

What I was saying was that Universal has to see something in HD DVD sales that makes them not desire or need to go neutral.

I would, but I fear they would not listen. I would like everyone to be neutral but that is unlikely given than Sony owns a major movie studio.

I am not sure why Universal has adopted the position it has but I doubt HD-DVD sales has anything to do with it. They may feel that sales are so low in both formats that supporting both is a pointless waste of money.

I am not sure why Universal has adopted the position it has but I doubt HD-DVD sales has anything to do with it. They may feel that sales are so low in both formats that supporting both is a pointless waste of money.
That's an interesting point. Does anyone have figures as to what it costs to make a HD DVD or Blu-ray Disc? Does anyone have any figures showing what, if any, HD DVDs or Blu-ray discs have actually made a decent profit?
J

Being exclusive is going to reduce their sales, not increase them.In the short run that is true, but in the long run being exclusive could give them higher sales compared to being neutral. Especially if the format they are releasing on loses. It has to do with movies losing value for a format the first time they are released for it. Even with special releases that try to grab some people again. Put another way, releasing a title today for both formats could mean less sales in the long run for it than if it had been held back until there were a lot more players out there.

--Darin

Any new thoughts on when Universal will go neutral?

They can afford to stay neutral until at least early '08.

Side switching will start to happen if one or both of the competing formats gain significant mass market traction.

This will not happen anytime soon.

Big blockbuster rollouts this year will only proof that SD DVD is still the format to beat.