High-def player sales even, says NPD Group (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html?nid=2705)

From Toshiba we know that means about 80K standalones sold of each format through December.

Time is Absolute, and Relative, But Never Universal.
Nice one! But where are your quotes around "Universal"

Some may just miss it.

High-def player sales even, says NPD Group (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html?nid=2705)

From Toshiba we know that means about 80K standalones sold of each format through December.

Those numbers are surprising. Everything I had read here over the last several weeks seemed to indicate that standalone HD DVD players outnumbered standalone Blu-Ray players ~5:1 (or thereabouts). Another "myth" bites the dust ...

Those numbers are surprising. Everything I had read here over the last several weeks seemed to indicate that standalone HD DVD players outnumbered standalone Blu-Ray players ~5:1 (or thereabouts). Another "myth" bites the dust ...

Ouch! What a bummer for Toshiba. The demand may be there, but limited supply?

And to the extent where standalones even up?

The A2 streeted this week? I thought it came out in mid-December and the XA2 at the end of December (both delayed from October). Why the shortages and delays?

Gary

I honestly didn't know that. I wasn't even in the market in December, so I mistook the recent arrival of new players as a premiere. My mistake.

However, I am growing weary of the "horse race" gaging of something that is not going to be won or lost this quickly. Both camps are guilty of this equally.

Why the shortages, and why the delays of either format? I mean common, over the last six months, I can't think of one Blu-ray "launch" that hasn't been moved back and plagued with shortages. Which was wrongly characterized as BD being "dead before it even leaves the gate" by the HD-DVD devotees.

I'd really do well to look in on this stuff a couple times a month rather than a couple times a day.

High-def player sales even, says NPD Group (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html?nid=2705)

From Toshiba we know that means about 80K standalones sold of each format through December.
I don't see any numbers, and I don't see any reference to a study on the NPD website. They're a market survey gun for hire, and I wonder who hired them? Good old trustworthy Sony? What is their source? I think Tosh said they sold 80k Gen 1, and had Gen 2 on sale too.

But guns are worthless without bullets to shoot.

Conversely, bullets are worthless, and will remain unsold, if the guns are too expensive. Especially when the only gun cheap enough to consider purchasing is a fishing pole that happens to also shoot bullets.

:D

Timothy - exactly right. The BD side are trying to get as much press as possible at the moment based on some rather "small picture" slices of the cherry.

The Videoscan numbers certainly look rather odd, but they are debating it in the nilsen thread - both side agree theres and error and we'll have to wait another week or so to get the proper picture.


Personally I don't consider... (SNIP)Richard, I don't generally put anyone on an ignore list, including even you. I have not been rude to you, but almost every post of yours, including this one, tries to assert that. True, I don't have a high opinion of your posting style, but I've never said the obvious until right now. You don't bring the tone "up" in most of your "debates". But at this point, with your last set of posts to me as a reference, I'll state my opinion that most of your disagreements are all about personality and trying to undermine people, instead of information.

I've found it quite useful to put such posters on ignore. They very seldom contribute anything substantial, and it makes the forum much more enjoyable.
Wayne, I am now taking your advice.

Richard is officially the first that I have been forced to place on ignore.

Very, very depressing, :( but as I was just about to put my HD-DVDs in the CD slot of my shredder, a little voice started speaking to me.

"Did you notice that was only a two-week chart?"

"Did you notice it was top-ten sales, not overall sales"

"Did you remember that no new HD titles have streeted"

"Did you remember PS3 put a lot of players out in one burst?"

"Did you remember that A2 and XA2 streeted this week and are selling really well?"

Then as if by magic, or maybe common sense, I put my discs back and had leisurely breakfast. :p

http://www.macmonkies.com/Fun/DontPanic_1024.jpg

Conversely, bullets are worthless, and will remain unsold, if the guns are too expensive. Especially when the only gun cheap enough to consider purchasing is a fishing pole that happens to also shoot bullets.

:D
Personally, I think bullets are overated - I can't see any defference at all to talk about that makes me wanna buy bullets instead of just sticking to my regular old SD spears! :p

Very, very depressing, :( but as I was just about to put my HD-DVDs in the CD slot of my shredder, a little voice started speaking to me.

"Did you notice that was only a two-week chart?"

"Did you notice it was top-ten sales, not overall sales"

"Did you remember that no new HD titles have streeted"

"Did you remember PS3 put a lot of players out in one burst?"

"Did you remember that A2 and XA2 streeted this week and are selling really well?"

Then as if by magic, or maybe common sense, I put my discs back and had leisurely breakfast. :p
I think you made some interesting points. When thrown a bone, HD DVD still has plenty of bite:

>Link< (http://www.emptysocket.com/Images/beerfestsales.gif)

......................

However, I am growing weary of the "horse race" gaging of something that is not going to be won or lost this quickly. Both camps are guilty of this equally.

Why the shortages, and why the delays of either format? I mean common, over the last six months, I can't think of one Blu-ray "launch" that hasn't been moved back and plagued with shortages. Which was wrongly characterized as BD being "dead before it even leaves the gate" by the HD-DVD devotees.

I'd really do well to look in on this stuff a couple times a month rather than a couple times a day.

..................................



You just joined in January and already you are growing weary of the horserace mentality??!! It has been going on for two and a half years already, and it's been at least two years since the "debate" has had any decorum. While some such as Amillians and Palladin finally managed to wean themselves away from it, several of us are still hooked - having to log in every few days to get the non-update that this soap opera/car wreck has become. I need my crack, my heroine, my purple screen of nerd (wife's words).

Even rdjm (sigh, oh deep deep sigh, sad face!, sad face! roll my eyes forever at you!!) is a noob in this "war" though his now disdained ex-partner Richard Paul has been posting since the beginning.

Not sure why rdjm lately has chosen to carry Amir's water for him. I would think being a VP at MS, Amir can readily take care of himself.


Regardless, the random stats may be noise, but they are fun for people to bash each other over the head with as they switch back and forth like a high school football game. Both sides have invested many billions into this race, and neither is going to let go easily, but one day, one will let go. From launch to death, Sony held onto Beta for ten years - and that was a format that required huge infrastructure for mass duplication, nothing to take lightly today.

The only interesting question from a format/consumer product launch perspective has always been, "What is the better strategy: inexpensive line of machines or bundling your new toy with a popular toy?"

We are just starting to get some answers to that, and I'm sure in a couple of years it will make for a nice chapter in business school.


thom

High-def player sales even, says NPD Group (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html?nid=2705)

From Toshiba we know that means about 80K standalones sold of each format through December.

I'd not trust NPD with any HiDef DVD numbers - look at the botched movie sales numbers that don't make sense.

I think they are excluding crucial retailers (like amazon) and extrapolate using old models that don't hold good for HiDef DVD players.

I'd not trust NPD with any HiDef DVD numbers - look at the botched movie sales numbers that don't make sense.

I think they are excluding crucial retailers (like amazon) and extrapolate using old models that don't hold good for HiDef DVD players.

NPD isn't the same company. Videoscan did the movie sales numbers. ;)

I didn't hear any protests from Microsoft about the 92,000 number (from NPD) given out for the addon sales..

b2b

You just joined in January and already you are growing weary of the horserace mentality??!! It has been going on for two and a half years already, and it's been at least two years since the "debate" has had any decorum. While some such as Amillians and Palladin finally managed to wean themselves away from it, several of us are still hooked - having to log in every few days to get the non-update that this soap opera/car wreck has become. I need my crack, my heroine, my purple screen of nerd (wife's words).

Even rdjm (sigh, oh deep deep sigh, sad face!, sad face! roll my eyes forever at you!!) is a noob in this "war" though his now disdained ex-partner Richard Paul has been posting since the beginning.

Not sure why rdjm lately has chosen to carry Amir's water for him. I would think being a VP at MS, Amir can readily take care of himself.


Regardless, the random stats may be noise, but they are fun for people to bash each other over the head with as they switch back and forth like a high school football game. Both sides have invested many billions into this race, and neither is going to let go easily, but one day, one will let go. From launch to death, Sony held onto Beta for ten years - and that was a format that required huge infrastructure for mass duplication, nothing to take lightly today.

The only interesting question from a format/consumer product launch perspective has always been, "What is the better strategy: inexpensive line of machines or bundling your new toy with a popular toy?"

We are just starting to get some answers to that, and I'm sure in a couple of years it will make for a nice chapter in business school.


thom

Well, the reason I came here is that because in my various movie forums (which enjoy just as many contributers) nobody cares. The general philosophy is DVD is good enough for me until HD players are between $200 and $300, and even then don't expect me to upgrade. Also they find the whole notion of a format war contemptible.

Many resent the double and triple dips on blockbuster DVD titles, and they don't see Hi-Def so much as a technical marvel, as they do another chance for studio's to reach in our pockets, yet again. They won't care who releases Casino Royale, because they don't have HD, and they will buy the DVD. So if and when they they do go Hi-def, the novelty of all the titles people are wetting themselves over now will no longer be relevant.

Entry level prices will have a ton to do with what goes down, people are kidding themselves if they don't think so. I just started buying titles compared to most here, and since I'm not made of money, it's going to be quite some time before I'm even worried about new releases (and I still buy more DVDs than HD). So the perspective of the late adopter is rather different from the early adopter.

I'm not so sure either format will "die" or has to die, which will disappoint those hungry for the drama of a take-down. From where I sit the market for entertainment devices is broadening, and much more niche-oriented than it used to be.

Entry level prices will have a ton to do with what goes down, people are kidding themselves if they don't think so. I just started buying titles compared to most here, and since I'm not made of money, it's going to be quite some time before I'm even worried about new releases (and I still buy more DVDs than HD). So the perspective of the late adopter is rather different from the early adopter.

Both console combatants in this war know they have to lower cost so they can then lower price before they'll get to 'late adopter' prices.

Hence the move to 65nm (http://ps3.qj.net/Sony-and-Microsoft-look-to-65nm-to-reduce-costs/pg/49/aid/81520)

Sony intends to cut PS3 costs even beyond 65nm

On the Sony side, they add that they also plan to reduce the number of parts in the PS3 in an attempt to see "drastic" cost reductions.

Both console combatants in this war know they have to lower cost so they can then lower price before they'll get to 'late adopter' prices.

Hence the move to 65nm (http://ps3.qj.net/Sony-and-Microsoft-look-to-65nm-to-reduce-costs/pg/49/aid/81520)

Sony intends to cut PS3 costs even beyond 65nm

That may mean the removal of legacy hardware from the mainboard (EE+GS) and maybe a die shrink on the RSX and XDR, to keep silicon costs down.

Both console combatants in this war know they have to lower cost so they can then lower price before they'll get to 'late adopter' prices.

Hence the move to 65nm (http://ps3.qj.net/Sony-and-Microsoft-look-to-65nm-to-reduce-costs/pg/49/aid/81520)

Sony intends to cut PS3 costs even beyond 65nm

Interesting, so is everyone who hooted and hollered about low-cost Chines HD-DVD players being seen as bargain basement fodder, going to feel the same way about cheaply manufactured PS3s?

I'm not a gamer, so I still find it odd that people want an HD movie player would buy a PS3, especially if they don't upscale DVD. Or do they?

Interesting, so is everyone who hooted and hollered about low-cost Chines HD-DVD players being seen as bargain basement fodder, going to feel the same way about cheaply manufactured PS3s?

I'm not a gamer, so I still find it odd that people want an HD movie player would buy a PS3, especially if they don't upscale DVD. Or do they?

When Sony change manufacturing processes of the Cell, in fact it is better as it reduces heat, and that means less fan noise. Sony are not going to hack out features from the PS3, at this early stage they will only do a few die-shrinks and maybe remove some legacy hardware. Neither will be noticed by the end-user.

Richard, I don't generally put anyone on an ignore list, including even you. I have not been rude to you, but almost every post of yours, including this one, tries to assert that.Well besides the small fact that you have been less than civil in your posts to me I doubt this is the reason that you would put me on your ignore list.


True, I don't have a high opinion of your posting style, but I've never said the obvious until right now.Actually you have told me what you thought of me several times in the past in less than polite terms.


You don't bring the tone "up" in most of your "debates".I am quite civil in most of my debates and I don't even see what you considered to be rude in my last post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9670242&&#post9670242). In fact if anything this is almost the opposite of how this conversation should be going considering some of the things you said to me in your last post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9659603&&#post9659603).


But at this point, with your last set of posts to me as a reference, I'll state my opinion that most of your disagreements are all about personality and trying to undermine people, instead of information.rdjam, when ever I ask you to provide evidence for the statements you have made for some reason you do not take it well. You tend to get evasive in your answers and begin personally attacking me. That does not seem to be the actions of someone who cares much about information and facts.

When Sony change manufacturing processes of the Cell, in fact it is better as it reduces heat, and that means less fan noise. Sony are not going to hack out features from the PS3, at this early stage they will only do a few die-shrinks and maybe remove some legacy hardware. Neither will be noticed by the end-user.

Still, lets not kid ourselves as to why this is happening. It's Sony's assumption that they scared people away with the price.

This doesn't strike me as a savvy "we had planned this all the long" maneuver, it's more a "oh my god, oh my god! what should we do?" response, and seems directly tied to the financial statements we've seen coming out of Sony.

I think at this point they're more worried about the gamers turning away than pushing Blu-ray. If the latter were the case they would be also announcing a highly affordable stand-alone too.

Can you see the consumer looking for a HD player being led to a PS3 and told "sure you may not be interested in gaming, and it does look a little strange, but it's the best Blu-ray value on the market"? :confused: It just doesn't add up to me.

Still, lets not kid ourselves as to why this is happening. It's Sony's assumption that they scared people away with the price.

This doesn't strike me as a savvy "we had planned this all the long" maneuver, it's more a "oh my god, oh my god! what should we do?" response, and seems directly tied to the financial statements we've seen coming out of Sony.

I think at this point they're more worried about the gamers turning away than pushing Blu-ray. If the latter were the case they would be also announcing a highly affordable stand-alone too.

Can you see the consumer looking for a HD player being led to a PS3 and told "sure you may not be interested in gaming, and it does look a little strange, but it's the best Blu-ray value on the market"? :confused: It just doesn't add up to me.

I never said it was a savvy move, they should have been using 65nm processors from the start, the technology has been around for a while now. All I am saying is that any internal changes made by Sony to reduce their costs and the price for us will not be noticed (except of course for the price cut).

Interesting, so is everyone who hooted and hollered about low-cost Chines HD-DVD players being seen as bargain basement fodder, going to feel the same way about cheaply manufactured PS3s?

I'm not a gamer, so I still find it odd that people want an HD movie player would buy a PS3, especially if they don't upscale DVD. Or do they?


Both BD and HD-DVD have this issue now. Sony subsidizes the PS3 because every console is subsidized - razor/shaver. Toshiba puts out inexpensive players and recruited Chinese CE's to head off the influence of the PS3 and hold onto their royalties. All the other CE's are caught in a pickle. They originally sided with BD to get a share of the royalties and get a small piece of the pie of the side they thought would win (from PS3). Sony faltered with the launch of the PS3 so some may have gone neutral, but Toshiba took most of the profit out of that market for them at this point.

Because HD-DVD has made a decent showing up until now, I am acutally surprised Sharp or Samsung has put out a ~$800 player or Phillips has put out their own. Maybe the market is too small on both sides for anyone to really care yet.

I think Tosh said they sold 80k Gen 1, and had Gen 2 on sale too.Last time I read an interview article with VP of Toshiba America, he said 70,000 players (including both G1 and G2) were shipped last year and 60,000+ players were sold.

Toshiba's claim, interview with Mr. Uchiyama, VP of Toshiba America (http://plusd.itmedia.co.jp/lifestyle/articles/0701/13/news001_3.html)

- The ratio of A1 to XA1 sold was 1:9
- 70,000 players shipped in last year (including G1 and G2), 60,000+ players sold. About half of this number was G2 player
- 18 Wheeler HD DVD experience event seems having good effect
- "Attach rate" (28 titles per player) was given by Warner, calculated by dividing the number of HD DVD titles sold by shipped player in North America, not counting Xbox360 add-ons
- 1.8M sales projection in 2007 is basically coming from the penetration rate for households of HDTV. HDTV users will be 55M households in 2007, if 5% of those will purchase HD player, the demand will be 3M. Considering price advantage, we could take 1.8M of this
- 1.8M projection is purely for Toshiba players only, others will share the rest 1.2M with cheap Chinese HD DVD players and BD players.
- LG was a pro BD company, so LG's player is welcome for Toshiba as a promoter of HD DVD
- There is enough possibility of changing the situation of studio support. Studios always watch the numbers of hardware and software, and software business is doing business based on hardware sales, so we believe pro BD studios would support HD DVD by watching the market share
- (In replying to the question that Nelsen's data showed the number sold of BD titles surpassed HD DVD by the week of 12/24) We heard the information that PS3 bundled coupons of BD titles. The sales did not surpass in the same condition. There are various information about sales, we still have an advantage, for example, by seeing Amazon's sales data
- It is said that BD has an advantage because of PS3, while there is complaint why consumers have to pay the cost of expensive BD drive for gaming. Considering many complaints about BD drive inclusion, we don't think there are many peoples who watch movies on PS3.

I never said it was a savvy move, they should have been using 65nm processors from the start, the technology has been around for a while now. All I am saying is that any internal changes made by Sony to reduce their costs and the price for us will not be noticed (except of course for the price cut).


They were trying to launch with 65nm Cell's but couldn't get them to work in volume. This has been one of the planned cost reductions from the beginning, and like all their planned cost reductions it is taking much longer than planned to implement. So the first year they spend more money than planned, I just think it was a bit much that several people were claiming Sony would go bankrupt this year because of it. It's like claiming MS would go under because Vista was delayed - they both have a few other things going on.

They were trying to launch with 65nm Cell's but couldn't get them to work in volume. This has been one of the planned cost reductions from the beginning, and like all their planned cost reductions it is taking much longer than planned to implement. So the first year they spend more money than planned, I just think it was a bit much that several people were claiming Sony would go bankrupt this year because of it. It's like claiming MS would go under because Vista was delayed - they both have a few other things going on.

Anyone who thinks Sony is going bankrupt because of the PS3 delays is deluded or they have bought into the MS FUD.

Anyone who thinks Sony is going bankrupt because of the PS3 delays is deluded or they have bought into the MS FUD.



Nobody from MS has ever said Sony was going bankrupt. Some have said it was a really dumb thing to do with the PS3 and Sony would lose a ton of money as a result (paraphrasing) but they didn't say they would go bankrupt.

Anyone who thinks Sony is going bankrupt because of the PS3 delays is deluded or they have bought into the MS FUD.

Your coming up with that all on your own, at least in terms of what I said.

I'm suggesting they are trying to elevate the PS3 out of ending up the third-place platform among gamers.

Now, they may have had it in mind to swap out the parts in question (once working consistently) so that the machine started being more profitable all the long, but I'll venture the price-drop this soon was not in the picture.

Sony has deep, deep pockets and they are hugely diversified; in some ways that's their problem. They can afford to be sloppy and slow here and there, then cloak inefficiency with other sources of revenue and dress it up in a wave of advertising.

Really, they can use the competition.

I'd not trust NPD with any HiDef DVD numbersIncluding the numbers that have been used in past HD DVD press releases? Also just curious but do you trust Amazon sales numbers?


Interesting, so is everyone who hooted and hollered about low-cost Chines HD-DVD players being seen as bargain basement fodder, going to feel the same way about cheaply manufactured PS3s?Personally I have nothing against Chinese made HD players as long as they are well made, which is a legitimate concern, but how exactly would making the PS3 cheaper be a bad thing? All game consoles have revisions over time to make them cheaper, and sometimes better, and the Xbox 360 is going to get a new lower heat producing 65 nm CPU sometime this year.

Including the numbers that have been used in past HD DVD press releases? Also just curious but do you trust Amazon sales numbers?

Haven't seen any Amazon sales figures - only ranks (which I completely trust). Have you ?

I'll trust NPD figures which sound plausible ... and that they have expertise on. On something so new ... I'd like to hear stats & MR experts tell me how NPD can form an extrapolation technique that is solid for Hidef DVD.

Haven't seen any Amazon sales figures - only ranks (which I completely trust). Have you ?Good point, it is sales ranks and not sales numbers on Amazon. Still considering that you do trust Amazon ranking does that mean you believe that they can indicate how well something is selling on Amazon?


I'll trust NPD figures which sound plausible ... and that they have expertise on.I see, and it does look like some people have decided that NPD must be wrong since what they said doesn't match up with the Adams Media Research numbers.

Including the numbers that have been used in past HD DVD press releases? Also just curious but do you trust Amazon sales numbers?


Personally I have nothing against Chinese made HD players as long as they are well made, which is a legitimate concern, but how exactly would making the PS3 cheaper be a bad thing? All game consoles have revisions over time to make them cheaper, and sometimes better, and the Xbox 360 is going to get a new lower heat producing 65 nm CPU sometime this year.

I'm just pointing out that there can be a double-standard in how these things are addressed.

The thing I find the most out-of-touch when were talking about price issues, is the lack of understanding just how relative cost can be. People have been buying name-brand DVD players for under $100 for at least two years now, off-brand for under $50. So when we snicker at $200-$299 HD/BD players as being on the cheap, I'm sure a lot of potential new owners think they should be getting something pretty top-drawer for that price range.

NPD isn't the same company. Videoscan did the movie sales numbers. ;)

I didn't hear any protests from Microsoft about the 92,000 number (from NPD) given out for the addon sales..

b2bMainly because MS does not comment on rumors or speculation (which those numbers are :)). In any event, they were wrong, as most speculation usually is.

Time is Absolute, and Relative, But Never Universal.

Au contraire, mon amie: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/UT.html

Good point, it is sales ranks and not sales numbers on Amazon. Still considering that you do trust Amazon ranking does that mean you believe that they can indicate how well something is selling on Amazon?

Yes. Esp. over a long period of time if you track ...

I see, and it does look like some people have decided that NPD must be wrong since what they said doesn't match up with the Adams Media Research numbers.

No. There have been multiple sources which pointed to low BD player sales over several past months.

However, I am growing weary of the "horse race" gaging of something that is not going to be won or lost this quickly. Both camps are guilty of this equally.


The arguments have always been are that the mass consumer audience don't want two formats. The studios don't want two formats. And the retailers don't want two formats. Given that, why wouldn't you expect much of the effort from creators and supporters to be to be toward the goal of one format?

The exclusive studios that are putting their "one format" beliefs on the line, are also the reason for much of the bitterness. Supporters realize that the other side's exclusives may not move unless they are FORCED to.

A constant stalemate with minor sales compared to DVD isn't going to change a darn thing.

Gary

A constant stalemate with minor sales compared to DVD isn't going to change a darn thing.

Gary

__________________

- Blu-ray in Japan: The true sign of Universal neutral inevitability.

Seems contradictory ;)

Mainly because MS does not comment on rumors or speculation (which those numbers are :)). In any event, they were wrong, as most speculation usually is.

Calling NPDs numbers "rumors and speculation" is a bit shallow. Maybe you should give Jodi Sally a buzz and tell her those losers at NPDs are spreading misinformation about the addon numbers... :)

b2b

Mainly because MS does not comment on rumors or speculation (which those numbers are :)). In any event, they were wrong, as most speculation usually is.

You're saying NPD is in the business of rumours and speculation rather than estimation?

Unless you release a number, saying 92K was wrong is pretty meaningless. It could be 93K, which would mean the NPD number was wrong, but totally unimportantly so.

The NPD number was also a estimation of consumer sales in the US. I'd very much like to know how Microsoft could have the real number of sell throughs.

Gary

The NPD number was also a estimation of consumer sales in the US. I'd very much like to know how Microsoft could have a factual number of sell throughs.

MS gets pretty good sell-through numbers. No, you won't hear about them.

Seems contradictory ;)

It's not a stalemate in Japan. It's a slaughter. Do try to keep up. :)

Universal continuing the charade there is perpetuating the nonsense, instead of eliminating it for at least the Japanese.

Gary

Do try to keep up. :)


I was talking about ...

minor sales compared to DVD

Do you have HiDef DVD movie sales figures for Japan ?

Do you have HiDef DVD movie sales figures for Japan ?

I would assume they are currently minor in Japan too compared to DVD.

The "leaving money on the table" argument was always wrong. And I never claimed Universal was doing so in Japan. However, if the current trends continue, and Blu-ray does grow over time against DVD, then Universal will be defacto slowly exiting the disc selling business in Japan.

I'm sure you figure on some sort of HD DVD miracle happening there. But, at this point HD DVD isn't even offering what the Japanese standalone consumer wants: An affordable recorder.

Gary

Yes. Esp. over a long period of time if you track ...Would you consider 6 months to be a long period of time?


No. There have been multiple sources which pointed to low BD player sales over several past months.Well in terms of major marketing research groups I know of only two who have estimated HD player sales and they are NPD and Adams Media Research. Honestly I don't know which estimate is closer to the truth but it seems premature to state that NPD must be wrong. After all do we have any detailed information on how either estimate was made?

Would you consider 6 months to be a long period of time?


Well in terms of major marketing research groups I know of only two who have estimated HD player sales and they are NPD and Adams Media Research. Honestly I don't know which estimate is closer to the truth but it seems premature to state that NPD must be wrong. After all do we have any detailed information on how either estimate was made?

Adams sounds like a one-man-band, professional pundit.
In addition, Mr. Adams has served as expert witness in numerous court cases, and is frequently tapped by media and technology companies to provide presentations on the future of media and technology markets to sales meetings, strategic planning retreats, conferences and conventions.
http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/site/contact/companyprofile.asp


NPD collects real data
The NPD Group, founded in 1967, is the leading global provider of consumer and retail market research information for a wide range of industries. We provide critical consumer behavior and point-of-sale (POS) information and industry expertise across more industries than any other market research company.
http://www.npd.com/corpServlet?nextpage=profile_s.html

b2b

The arguments have always been are that the mass consumer audience don't want two formats. The studios don't want two formats. And the retailers don't want two formats. Given that, why wouldn't you expect much of the effort from creators and supporters to be to be toward the goal of one format?
Gary

Sure, but it's tiresome. It's just one FUD-bomb after another with grand exaggeration and over speculation all around. I really don't believe anyone is doing all this posturing for "the good of the consumer" At this point it's highly speculative that the mass consumer wants any HD format. I realize a format war makes Hi-def even less appealing, but "negative campaigning" keeps people away from the poles in elections, I wouldn't be surprised if it also turns-off consumers.

All this "In your face BD" and "take that HD" makes it hard for me to believe anyone getting that bent can actually turn around and enjoy what they have.

A constant stalemate with minor sales compared to DVD isn't going to change a darn thing.

Gary

Well, for that matter, I have no real desire to blow DVD off the map either. Theres no way the stuff I like is all destined for HD, I'm amazed some of it even made it to SD.

I would assume they are currently minor in Japan too compared to DVD.

The "leaving money on the table" argument was always wrong. And I never claimed Universal was doing so in Japan. However, if the current trends continue, and Blu-ray does grow over time against DVD, then Universal will be defacto slowly exiting the disc selling business in Japan.

I'm sure you figure on some sort of HD DVD miracle happening there. But, at this point HD DVD isn't even offering what the Japanese standalone consumer wants: An affordable recorder.

GaryWho has the Japanese rights to Universal's library? I was under the impression that another studio had the foreign release rights. Was that misinformation or just wishful thinking on my part?

I've been wondering; since HD-DVD doesn't have as much studio support as BD, do you think they are courting some of the smaller labels?

If the porn industry is using HD-DVD for lower-volume pressing, then by now the production plants are probably are quite good at working with small runs. A company like Anchor Bay, Dark Sky or Blue Underground could at least get things like EVIL DEAD, REANIMATOR, ZOMBIE, HALLOWEEN, and the original DAWN OF THE DEAD or TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE out there.

Not to everyone's taste I'm sure, but I think it would knock some of the cult audience who wouldn't watch "CARS" on a bet into the ring.

Yeah, but then this goes back to your previous post. How much better will a B-Rated horror movie on old stock look in HD than on DVD upconverted?

As far as porn, I think Sony is being a tad shortsighted considering the target age group of the majority of PS3 buyers. However I doubt it will have quite the effect it had in the VHS vs. Beta battle. Back then there was no other venue for porn in your home. Today there is VHS, DVD, and the interweb. I'm sure there will be some interest, but not the insatiable drive of every 15-70 year old male.

You know, regardless of what some posters may think on this site, these NPD figures will be used as the factual basis for the state of the format war by pretty much every organisation from here onwards (until newer data comes in). Sticking fingers in your ears won't change that from happening.

Here's the DVD Empire chart showing disc sales relative to each format -


http://img112.imageshack.us/img112/1530/dvdempirechartin5.jpg

Yeah, but then this goes back to your previous post. How much better will a B-Rated horror movie on old stock look in HD than on DVD upconverted?

As far as porn, I think Sony is being a tad shortsighted considering the target age group of the majority of PS3 buyers. However I doubt it will have quite the effect it had in the VHS vs. Beta battle. Back then there was no other venue for porn in your home. Today there is VHS, DVD, and the interweb. I'm sure there will be some interest, but not the insatiable drive of every 15-70 year old male.

Well therein lies the quandary of Hi-def.

For me, I like the idea of Hi-def getting me as close to that 35mm print or better yet camera neg, or inter-positive in my living room as I can get. That goes for Metropolis or Alien. I don't mind if a film looks like film, because it's a film! Why shouldn't it look like what it is? Anything is "good enough" for high-def in the best condition in which it survives and can be preserved/restored IMO.

DVD has gotten very impressive over the years, but it has weak spots, it handles grain poorly and flattens subtle differences in low-level, diffused lighting and has poor black-levels. Higher resolution and better mastering techniques help with all those issues. I'd argue that Hi-Def has more to offer VERTIGO or THE FOG than A BUGS LIFE or TOY STORY, because getting the latter to "sparkle" is like falling off a log. Getting VERTIGO to look like an original, luminous Technicolor print is not so easily done, but has a better chance minus the artifacts and simplifications inherent to SD.

Apart from that, I think some people would buy those titles no matter what the format, and it's a built-in audience. I know, I'm one of those suckers. I've owned NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD on 8mm, 16mm, VHS, Laserdisc, a couple DVDs, so is one more $20 HD-DVD gonna stop me?

You know, regardless of what some posters may think on this site, these NPD figures will be used as the factual basis for the state of the format war by pretty much every organisation from here onwards (until newer data comes in). Sticking fingers in your ears won't change that from happening.

Here's the DVD Empire chart showing disc sales relative to each format -


http://img112.imageshack.us/img112/1530/dvdempirechartin5.jpg

Another datapoint (14-day Amazon trend):

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=10&SPAN=14

One format looks like it is dying; one doesn't.

Another datapoint (14-day Amazon trend):

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=10&SPAN=14

One format looks like it is dying; one doesn't.

That graph is only for 14 days but, it it had been sufficiently longer, it would appear that neither format was making any headway against DVD's.

Though HD DVD did obvously slip more in the last couple weeks. They seriously need to release some stuff.

- Tom

Though HD DVD did obvously slip more in the last couple weeks. They seriously need to release some stuff.

- TomAnd soon!

Another datapoint (14-day Amazon trend):

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=10&SPAN=14

One format looks like it is dying; one doesn't.

This is so lame, "appears" is certainly the word. PS3 = more BD sales.
A spike in the number of BDs being made available = more BD sales
A temporary lull in HD-DVD output = fewer HD sales.

If these factors had no effect; now that would be news.

Are the studios that release HD-DVD put off by this info?
Probably not, given they are more than half the reason for it.
I'm sure they've been at this game long enough to know they won't get more sales til they get more product out.

Profit is another thing entirely, because so far nobody illustrated anything that shows the short-term profit on sales of discs at the numbers being sold. If it cost more to make BD than HD so you have to sell more BD to offset production costs.

In short the studios are probably not nearly so moved as you'd like to think.

Toshiba? They sell what they make, and have had a profitable year. So your not going to see their board of directors do anything but say keep them coming. However you may see more promotion.

Sony? I'm sure Sony is making the same mountain out of a mole-hill that some are here. What else can they do? PS3 may have put a lot of Blu-ray players into homes relative to HD, but Sony hasn't put as many PS3s into homes as they had hoped, and sales are falling off. Hence all the scramble to get that price down. So Sony's already hugely subsidized product will continue to operate at a loss a lot longer than expected. As I said before, Sony's got deep pockets, and can afford to subsidize for a long time to come.

The upshot is don't expect anyone to change policy.

That graph is only for 14 days but, it it had been sufficiently longer, it would appear that neither format was making any headway against DVD's.


Casino Royale [Blu-ray] is #29 and currently outranking the following DVD on Amazon.com:

Saw III
Cars (Widescreen Edition)
Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)
Marie Antoinette
24 - Season Five
Open Season (Full Screen Special Edition)
Flags of Our Fathers (Full Screen Edition)

The Departed [Blu-ray] is #55.

That's headway. And very impressive given there are 100x as many DVD consumers.

Gary

Au contraire, mon amie: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/UT.html

Mon ami?

If you love him, why don't you marry him? :p

Seriously, though, nice comeback w/GMT!

Who has the Japanese rights to Universal's library? I was under the impression that another studio had the foreign release rights. Was that misinformation or just wishful thinking on my part?

Studios enter into co-production (risk sharing) deals all the time. And usually the primary studio takes the domestic (US + Canada) sales and the partner gets one or more foreign markets.

Titanic was Paramount in NA and Fox in the rest of the world.
Cinderella Man was Universal in NA, and is a BD50 Disney release in Japan.
Certain BD titles are on Studio Canal releases in Europe.

See my sig for a link to a BD importing guide.

Gary

Casino Royale [Blu-ray] is #29 and currently outranking the following DVD on Amazon.com:

Saw III
Cars (Widescreen Edition)
Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Two-Disc Collector's Edition)
Marie Antoinette
24 - Season Five
Open Season (Full Screen Special Edition)
Flags of Our Fathers (Full Screen Edition)

The Departed [Blu-ray] is #55.

That's headway. And very impressive given there are 100x as many DVD consumers.

Gary

Wow! That is pretty cool.

Anyone who truly claims to be a fan of HiDef vs. DVD, regardless of who wins the war, should be happy about that.

Sure, but it's tiresome. It's just one FUD-bomb after another with grand exaggeration and over speculation all around. I really don't believe anyone is doing all this posturing for "the good of the consumer" At this point it's highly speculative that the mass consumer wants any HD format. I realize a format war makes Hi-def even less appealing, but "negative campaigning" keeps people away from the poles in elections, I wouldn't be surprised if it also turns-off consumers.

All this "In your face BD" and "take that HD" makes it hard for me to believe anyone getting that bent can actually turn around and enjoy what they have.

Great post. I agree with you completely.

I've said for a long time that "negative campaigning" is useless in attracting supporters.

Gary

Wow! That is pretty cool.

Anyone who truly claims to be a fan of HiDef vs. DVD, regardless of who wins the war, should be happy about that.

Ya, but DVD is so cheap and plentiful, don't you think on titles like Casino Royale a lot of consumers take their time, or wait to see who's going to have the cheapest promotion in the Sunday ads?

Regardles of the rationale, I think that may be the highest placed disc from either format on Amazon's rankings so far, which can hardly be considered a bad thing. How long do people think it will be before a HighDef disc sits at the no1 ranking spot? 1 year? 2?

Ya, but DVD is so cheap and plentiful, don't you think on titles like Casino Royale a lot of consumers take their time, or wait to see who's going to have the cheapest promotion in the Sunday ads?

I agree with that, DVD consumers by and large are the J6P demographic, so they will wait until release day and go to whichever of their local B&Ms has it listed cheapest, whereas we BD people really don't mind paying a bit more if we know it will be on our doorstep on or near release day.

Regardles of the rationale, I think that may be the highest placed disc from either format on Amazon's rankings so far, which can hardly be considered a bad thing. How long do people think it will be before a HighDef disc sits at the no1 ranking spot? 1 year? 2?

A while yet, as any day and date BD will have to compete with the DVD, take Spiderman 3, the DVD will outsell the BD, even if both are in the top 10, the DVD will inevitably be higher.

Regardles of the rationale, I think that may be the highest placed disc from either format on Amazon's rankings so far, which can hardly be considered a bad thing. How long do people think it will be before a HighDef disc sits at the no1 ranking spot? 1 year? 2?

How about Walmart ? How long will it be before dvd gets trounced there ? Will it ever ?

Casino Royale [Blu-ray] is #29 and ...

What is the highest ranking hidef dvd ever ... anyone knows ?

What is the highest ranking hidef dvd ever ... anyone knows ?

Casino Royale is, BB made about #35, and SR on HD DVD made about the same.

One day even Walmart will stop selling DVDs. The only question is whether they start selling more of another type of optical disc first.

What is the highest ranking hidef dvd ever ... anyone knows ?

I think Casino Royale's #28 (as of this writing) is it.

I've seen claims Batman Begins reached #33. But, I never saw it below #60.

Gary

This is so lame, "appears" is certainly the word. PS3 = more BD sales.
A spike in the number of BDs being made available = more BD sales
A temporary lull in HD-DVD output = fewer HD sales.

If these factors had no effect; now that would be news.




However, these things in and of themselves have an effect on the general consumer and on the studios.

Take on it for the future;

If someone hasn't bought into either yet and they look to see what is coming out in the near term on both, a "temporary lull" in HD-DVD output so early in the format is going to affect their format buying decision. With the PS3 actually affecting BD sales (forever we heard people here say and even Universal say "gamers don't buy movies") this can and will affect the launch decisions of neutral studios.

Take on it from the past;

Don't just look at the last 14 days or 30 days, take a look at the chart for both formats separately going back to last June (check out www.thedvdwars.com). All this does is show trends since actual sales numbers are not forthcoming. Ignore BD in relation to HD-DVD and vice versa.

The trend line for BluRay looks very much like a new rising format; as of mid-October the average ranking history for product sold has been steadily increasing with greater increase once the PS3 was out in volume.

The trend for HD-DVD looks relatively even since early October. The disc rankings appear to rise and fall with the release of new material but it doesn't appear that overall volume (or popularity depending on how you look at it) is increasing.

For BluRay it appears more players are being sold this month than last for the preceding three months. For HD-DVD the best case it appears the same number of players are being sold this month than last, and worst case there are actually fewer being sold now since the current trend could be driven by current owners not new ones.

I'm sure the studios themselves have access to actual sales info from every possible venue. That is what will drive one format versus the other, but for the moment, this is all we have to look at.

One day even Walmart will stop selling DVDs. The only question is whether they start selling more of another type of optical disc first.

I think it will be like VHS. It will require DVD sales to totally tank before the studios give up a revenue stream. They'll keep selling DVD while it is profitable to do so.

I just got my parents a Westinghouse 27" LCD TV (the largest that would fit in their entertainment unit). That's 1280x720. I can't really see how they'd ever see much of a difference with HD discs over a good DVD.

I expect HD disc popularity to even out at the relationship between larger HDTV (>= 32") and smaller (< 32") sales.

Gary

I've been negative about NPD because they have (on this topic) popped up out of nowhere, giving an unexpected result. If they gave us sales by manufacturer or model on a month to month basis, we could test their credibility. Meanwhile we have only the word of some (usually BD supporters) attesting to their unseen detail.

However, these things in and of themselves have an effect on the general consumer and on the studios.

Take on it for the future;

If someone hasn't bought into either yet and they look to see what is coming out in the near term on both, a "temporary lull" in HD-DVD output so early in the format is going to affect their format buying decision. With the PS3 actually affecting BD sales (forever we heard people here say and even Universal say "gamers don't buy movies") this can and will affect the launch decisions of neutral studios.


They also know what those numbers mean to them, and how they contribute to those numbers.


I think at this juncture the consumer should buy the format that appeals to them the most, and sure that should include seeing if there are available titles that appeal to them. I also think all studios should be neutral. You want Universal stuff? Why shouldn't you? I want Lionsgate/Disney stuff. Why shouldn't I? I'd love to see what HD-DVD could do in an even playing field.

My feeling is that HD-DVD appeals to me much more and is the way to go, and I've accepted the risk of supporting the product I believe in. If nothing is made available to me in HD-DVD I obviously can't continue (I don't see that happening anyway). However, that won't suddenly make BD appeal, because it too could go nowhere and I'm not so HD horny that I'll run the risk of two dead formats that I'm heavily invested in.

I'd like to see HD-DVD and Blu-Ray live long enough so that dual-format players become the rule, and then none of this junk will matter, and the consumer won't get burned, because none of us deserves to be.

One day even Walmart will stop selling DVDs.

I look forward to that day. But won't hold my breath ...

BTW, we will soon have burn-and-buy option in major retailers ....

I think Casino Royale's #28 (as of this writing) is it.

I've seen claims Batman Begins reached #33.

Not bad for BB ... and without the help of any trojan horses ....

Not bad for BB ... and without the help of any trojan horses ....

That's a political statement. If you're choosing based on politics, then there really is nothing to discuss.

I choose based on blantant selfish reasons. I make no apologies. :)

Gary

That's a political statement. If you're choosing based on politics, then there really is nothing to discuss.

I choose based on blantant selfish reasons. I make no apologies. :)

Nothing political. Just saying we are not breaking any new ground here. Sorry to disappoint ...

Was that presentation going on at the Blu-ray booth constantly, or did they have scheduled times for it?After the first day they ended up doubling the number of times they did the preso due to the over-capacity standing-room-only crowds.

- Talk

After the first day they ended up doubling the number of times they did the preso due to the over-capacity standing-room-only crowds.

- Talk

Did anyone faint!? Were there plenty of smelling-salts on hand; tell me there was there at least a nurse on duty? :D

I just got my parents a Westinghouse 27" LCD TV (the largest that would fit in their entertainment unit). That's 1280x720. I can't really see how they'd ever see much of a difference with HD discs over a good DVD.

I expect HD disc popularity to even out at the relationship between larger HDTV (>= 32") and smaller (< 32") sales.

Gary
It's going to be interesting to watch just what happens. At the moment it seems likely that one format will survive, and will create a market somewhat larger than Laserdisc, but significantly smaller than DVD. OTOH TV prices are falling all the time, and (at least in Britain) non-widescreen sets are almost impossible to find in major retailers. Once afordable wall mounted sets of sufficient size start to flood the market the HD sector could well make significant in-roads into the DVD market. Until then, as you say, the size of the sets will probably limit the potential customer base.

BTW, I'm still waiting for those TV screens you can roll up like paper and carry around with you!

I look forward to that day. But won't hold my breath ...

BTW, we will soon have burn-and-buy option in major retailers ....
There are make-your-own-card machines in most card shops over here, and yet I've never seen so many new cards on sale in my life. These sorts of technology just demand the one thing of consumers that you never should: that they expend some effort. It simply won't do! ;)

Another datapoint (14-day Amazon trend):

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=10&SPAN=14

One format looks like it is dying; one doesn't.

For a broader view:

1. 53 of the top 100 titles are HD DVD

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank.aspx?88301320BFB14AE081D2FBDDF756414C


2. The rankings of standalone players are as follows (among all DVD players sold)
Toshiba A-2 - ranked #5
Toshiba XA-2 - ranked #10
Samsung BDP 1000 - ranked #27
Toshiba XA-1 - ranked #33
Toshiba A-1 - ranked #35.
Sony BDP-S1 - ranked #46
RCA HDV 5000 - ranked # 73
Panny Player at 21,188 didn't make the top 100

So, 4 of the top 5 standalone players were HD DVD!


http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/1036922/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/102-4279731-5297722

Both formats are very much still in the game....

For a broader view:

1. 53 of the top 100 titles are HD DVD

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank.aspx?88301320BFB14AE081D2FBDDF756414C


2. The rankings of standalone players are as follows (among all DVD players sold)
Toshiba A-2 - ranked #5
Toshiba XA-2 - ranked #10
Samsung BDP 1000 - ranked #27
Toshiba XA-1 - ranked #33
Toshiba A-1 - ranked #35.
Sony BDP-S1 - ranked #46
RCA HDV 5000 - ranked # 73
Panny Player at 21,188 didn't make the top 100

So, 4 of the top 5 standalone players were HD DVD!


http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/1036922/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/102-4279731-5297722

Both formats are very much still in the game....

Plaz, I think you may have a typo or a simple maths mistake, the number in the top 100 is split 57/43 in favour of BD.

It's going to be interesting to watch just what happens. At the moment it seems likely that one format will survive, and will create a market somewhat larger than Laserdisc, but significantly smaller than DVD. OTOH TV prices are falling all the time, and (at least in Britain) non-widescreen sets are almost impossible to find in major retailers. Once afordable wall mounted sets of sufficient size start to flood the market the HD sector could well make significant in-roads into the DVD market. Until then, as you say, the size of the sets will probably limit the potential customer base.

BTW, I'm still waiting for those TV screens you can roll up like paper and carry around with you!

I can't remember where I read it, but the price of new 50" plasma's have dropped 20% a year for the past 3 years.

Plazman,

I've been watching these rankings too. The HD DVD hardware numbers speak for themselves. What is amazing is the rank of the XA2, which is priced higher and sells briskly all the same. The studios won't quit HD DVD as long as there are so many HD DVD players to feed.

I can't remember where I read it, but the price of new 50" plasma's have dropped 20% a year for the past 3 years.

The question is do HD sets = a thirst for HD media? I had an HD projector long before any up-scaler for my DVDs, they look better now that I do, but they didn't look like turd before either.

I remember asking all my friend's when I got my DVDO "Notice anything different tonight?," which of course nobody did. :confused: I did.

Not bad for BB ... and without the help of any trojan horses ....Yet it did have help from the low cost, and the most likely subsidized, Toshiba HD DVD players and the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. Not saying that there is anything wrong with that just saying that one can hardly point out the effect the PS3 has had without accepting that those two factors had an effect on the format war as well.


1. 53 of the top 100 titles are HD DVD

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank.aspx?88301320BFB14AE081D2FBDDF756414CJust added up the numbers from that list and I get 57 Blu-ray and 43 HD DVD from the top 100 list. Also I am not so sure that it makes much sense to simply count up the number of titles without accounting for the ranking.

Yet it did have help from the low cost, and the most likely subsidized, Toshiba HD DVD players and the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on. Not saying that there is anything wrong with that just saying that one can hardly point out the effect the PS3 has had without accepting that those two factors had an effect on the format war as well.

It definitely did, the war would be very different had Toshiba stuck to their guns and released the A1 for $799 MSRP, but then that showed their confidence in the format similarly priced Toshiba knew that they had no chance against BD.

Well this should be thrilling news for the studios supporting HD-DVD... ;)
Preliminary reports over at the new SlySoft support forum indicate that SlySoft is hard at work developing AnyDVD HD, a new software product that is designed to help decrypt HD DVD movies (HD DVD-ROMs) on the fly. This is a logical evolution for the company behind the famous AnyDVD app, which is an excellent piece of software that allows users to decrypt DVD discs on-the-fly. This is great news for HD DVD owners who wish to back up their HD DVD movies.

http://wesleytech.com/anydvd-hd-coming-soon/

b2b

Well this should be thrilling news for the studios supporting HD-DVD...
http://wesleytech.com/anydvd-hd-coming-soon/
From your link:
Once AnyDVD HD has been launched, they will take a look at the Blu-ray format.

Management change at NBC Universal:

Jeff Zucker to take top spot at NBC Universal (http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-wright4feb04,0,3673501.story?coll=la-home-local)

This probably means nothing to our debate, but who knows?

New management can try new strategies without losing face. And clearly something needs to be done about Universal Studio's abysmal theatrical box office.

Gary

It definitely did, the war would be very different had Toshiba stuck to their guns and released the A1 for $799 MSRP, but then that showed their confidence in the format similarly priced Toshiba knew that they had no chance against BD.

Most likely I don't think we would have seen the A1 at all and there would have only been the XA1.

Last time I read an interview article with VP of Toshiba America, he said 70,000 players (including both G1 and G2) were shipped last year and 60,000+ players were sold.
...
Toshiba's claim, interview with Mr. Uchiyama, VP of Toshiba America

- The ratio of A1 to XA1 sold was 1:9
- 70,000 players shipped in last year (including G1 and G2), 60,000+ players sold. About half of this number was G2 player
I am disappointed with how unreliable DTV TiVo Dealer's (Robert's) information has been in some cases. Back in November I pointed out that Robert had claimed that Toshiba had sold 70k HD DVD players in the US alone in September, but when the first Gen 2 player got delayed it all of a sudden changed to them having 1000 left to sell. He then claimed that his number had been 97% correct and his newer information was 100% correct. This can be seen here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8900521&&#post8900521

Then after the start of CES I remember somebody saying that at Toshiba's press conference they mentioned 60k players sold, but Robert claimed that the 60k was for Gen2 units. I pointed out that the 175k+ number for North America counting XBOX360 add-ons and laptops didn't match up with Robert's claims. Now, if the information from the VP of Toshiba America is correct, then I would say that Robert has been posting misinformation on this subject. There is no way that they could have shipped 70k Gen1 players and also shipped only 70k total with Gen1 and Gen2 and had 60k+ total sold with Gen1 and Gen2 with about half being Gen2. I wonder if Robert's information he posted about the XA2 getting 1080p24 by about the end of February will be more reliable than his claims of how many players Toshiba sold seem to be.

If you want to respond to this Robert, please tell us why you claimed that they had 70k out in September and 69k (or close to that) before the G2s even hit, along with saying that your claim of 70k in the US alone was 97% true in September when I pointed out the discrepancy in 2 of your claims. Was that inside information you had gotten, or were you guessing and posting here as if you knew?

--Darin

Thats not how I read that translation of the interview with the Mr. Uchiyama, Toshiba , VP of Toshiba America. I can't find it now. Do you have the link?

All the various reports considered that I have read, still support 60-70,000 1st generation units shipped and sold in 2006. I beleive I saw that article but the translation was rough.

Most likely I don't think we would have seen the A1 at all and there would have only been the XA1.

Sounds about right, but even so, HD DVD would never have gained so many buyers if it had been priced as Toshiba initially intended.

Sounds about right, but even so, HD DVD would never have gained so many buyers if it had been priced as Toshiba initially intended.
The same thing could be said for the PS3. Sony decided to change their original plans and lowered the price by $100, and stuck HDMI on the cheaper (20gig) units.
J

The same thing could be said for the PS3. Sony decided to change their original plans and lowered the price by $100, and stuck HDMI on the cheaper (20gig) units.
J

Only in Japan was the price lowered on the 20GB unit. With HDMI you bring up a good point. Toshiba halved the SRP (799 to 399) of their original player, hardly comparable to a $100 price drop which happened in only one territory.

With HDMI you bring up a good point. Toshiba halved the SRP (799 to 399) of their original player,
No, the HD-A1 originally listed for $499.
J

No, the HD-A1 originally listed for $499.
J

Sorry, I am not American, so I was going by the Amazon price :o.

Not saying that there is anything wrong with that just saying that one can hardly point out the effect the PS3 has had without accepting that those two factors had an effect on the format war as well.

I guess those two are because of PS3 in the first place ... in anycase you didn't follow the "thread". Read my further comments this before jumping in ...

Very, very depressing, :( but as I was just about to put my HD-DVDs in the CD slot of my shredder, a little voice started speaking to me.

"Did you notice that was only a two-week chart?"

"Did you notice it was top-ten sales, not overall sales"

"Did you remember that no new HD titles have streeted"

"Did you remember PS3 put a lot of players out in one burst?"

"Did you remember that A2 and XA2 streeted this week and are selling really well?"

Then as if by magic, or maybe common sense, I put my discs back and had leisurely breakfast. :p

Plus ... there are no PS3 games (concidence?) so people have to buy some movies to justify their $600 doorstop. :p

Thats not how I read that translation of the interview with the Mr. Uchiyama, Toshiba , VP of Toshiba America. I can't find it now. Do you have the link?

All the various reports considered that I have read, still support 60-70,000 1st generation units shipped and sold in 2006. I beleive I saw that article but the translation was rough.Do you have better translated report which does not conflict against other reports you have read, or do you speak Japanese better than me?

Here is the original Japanese article:
http://plusd.itmedia.co.jp/lifestyle/articles/0701/13/news001_3.html

――昨年、HD DVDプレーヤーは何台販売されたのでしょう？

内山氏：　昨年販売したHD DVDプレーヤー全体で7万台出荷しています。セルスルーで6万を超えるぐらいでしょう。機種別の数字は出していませんが、第2 世代に入ってからの方が売れ行きは好調です。昨年販売した分の半分は第2世代プレーヤーです。特に12月になってからは好調でか なりの数が売れました。
My translation:
-- How many HD DVD players were sold last year?

Uchiyama: We shipped 70,000 units last year in all of HD DVD players. Probably over 60,000 via sell through. We don't have actual numbers for each product type, but sales of 2nd generation is better (than 1st gen.). About half of the sales in last year was 2nd gen. players, especially in December, there was favorable sales and many players were sold.
Google machine translation:
70,000 unit it is shipping DVD player altogether HD last year was sold. Being the cell through, it probably is the extent which exceeds 60,000. It does not produce the number classified by type, but after entering into the 2nd generation, as for demand is more favorable. Half of the amount which last year sold is the 2nd generation player. Especially, after being December, being favorable, it could sell considerable number.

I am posting this here because B2b made a remark about Tom not being active lately (for those of you who don't know him, he is an insider working at our partner company, Broadcom). I heard this unfortunate news at CES and just got this from him. Here we think format war is what is important to us when things like this happen to someone over Xmas of all times! Really puts things in prespective, doesn't it?

Our deepest prayers go to him and his family.

-------

[Eileen, Peter, etc.; I cannot send Email to some of these lists from
this account so please forward for me, thanks. This is the first time I
have been either technically able to connect from the hospital or
coherent enough to connect at all once home, hence the lack of any
communications before this time.]

After suffering a severe seizure over the XMas holidays I have just been
released from the hospital (yesterday). The seizure resulted in burst
fractures in some of my mid-lower spinal vertebrae in addition to
cracked ribs which I've been told would have led to permanent paralysis
from the waist downward. So they locked me away in an ICU for the last N
weeks.

I am now living in an upper body brace and am pretty heavily drugged
with morphine, vicaden, Librium, and other stuff. I am told that this
was partially due to osteoporosis plus bad diet and too much stress
recently. I'll be pretty used up in physical therapy and drug/dietary
supplements over the next few weeks, and although I expect to be on line
a lot more now, physically I'll be pretty scarce.

My reason for this Email is to apologize to anyone and everyone I may
have let down during the CES lead-in and execution window. I am really
really sorry if I dropped any balls that led to problems for Broadcom,
the HPA, the IBC Council, or any members thereof. Monster people - I am
also really sorry I couldn't make your concert - I tried to fly from the
hospital direct last night but the answer from both my wife and the
doctors was NO. John Ive - I am also very very sorry about our trip.

My profound and sincere apologies. Please let me know what I can do to
help make things up or help in any way during the post CES follow-up
window.

Thank you and please accept my belated apologies - Tom.
Thanks, Amir. I am feeling much better but it is going to be a long time before I fully recover. Thanks again.

Good to hear from you Tom. Hope you are doing well.

It is GREAT to see you back Tom!!!

Tom - great to hear from you. We all wish you speedy healing and best-case outcomes!

Calling NPDs numbers "rumors and speculation" is a bit shallow. Maybe you should give Jodi Sally a buzz and tell her those losers at NPDs are spreading misinformation about the addon numbers... :)

b2bFrom Wordnet (http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=speculation): Speculation: a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence. Are you trying to say that the NPD numbers are not speculation by that definition?

What NPD does is use incomplete data to guesstimate sales numbers. Sometimes they're close, and sometimes they're not. They're more likely to be off in supply constrained systems, where the distributor does not distribute their product evenly through the channel, especially when the companies getting a disproportionate amount of the product are not included in their information gathering.

That's not to say they aren't useful. Even when they're wrong they can provide excellent indications of sales trends and volumes. I just always take their acual numbers with a grain of salt. For console numbers, they seem to be consistently low.

From Wordnet (http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=speculation): Speculation: a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence. Are you trying to say that the NPD numbers are not speculation by that definition?

What NPD does is use incomplete data to guesstimate sales numbers. Sometimes they're close, and sometimes they're not. They're more likely to be off in supply constrained systems, where the distributor does not distribute their product evenly through the channel, especially when the companies getting a disproportionate amount of the product are not included in their information gathering.

That's not to say they aren't useful. Even when they're wrong they can provide excellent indications of sales trends and volumes. I just always take their acual numbers with a grain of salt. For console numbers, they seem to be consistently low.

Until the day that every product can be tracked through the entire supply chain with an embedded RFID tag, the best thing anyone has is to count products POS sales data. Right now NPD is the best version of the truth that's available. ;)

b2b

From Wordnet (http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=speculation): Speculation: a message expressing an opinion based on incomplete evidence. Are you trying to say that the NPD numbers are not speculation by that definition?

What NPD does is use incomplete data to guesstimate sales numbers. Sometimes they're close, and sometimes they're not. They're more likely to be off in supply constrained systems, where the distributor does not distribute their product evenly through the channel, especially when the companies getting a disproportionate amount of the product are not included in their information gathering.

That's not to say they aren't useful. Even when they're wrong they can provide excellent indications of sales trends and volumes. I just always take their acual numbers with a grain of salt. For console numbers, they seem to be consistently low. Seems to exactly describe the standalone HD DVD and Blu-ray player market in 2006. VE got a disproportinate share from their channel and Circuit City did not even sell the first generation HD DVD players.

Plus ... there are no PS3 games (concidence?) so people have to buy some movies to justify their $600 doorstop. :p

Of course... They're holding back releasing games to MAKE people buy movies. Why didn't I think of that.... :eek:

BTW, finally got the PS3 installed last night and watched Superman Returns with the family. They were all impressed. :) And, that MotorStorm demo rocks!

Geez people never heard of a statistical sample?

You think NPD would be in business long if its work product was speculative?

Yes they do sell their data.

Of course... They're holding back releasing games to MAKE people buy movies. Why didn't I think of that.... :eek:

...

ROFL ... I am not sure where people come up with these ideas ... Obsession and denial are powerful forces ...

Geez people never heard of a statistical sample?

You think NPD would be in business long if its work product was speculative?

Yes they do sell their data.

You understand that they didn't draw a sample randomly from the popultion, correct? They had to model the sample they drew, and use their best guesses to fill in the gaps. We don't know how accurate their model is. And there is no way to model data like that that without speculation. It would be easy for the model to be off, and the figures to be completely wrong.

ROFL ... I am not sure where people come up with these ideas ... Obsession and denial are powerful forces ...


This morning a member was banned because his post wasn't "cordial". Actually, his post was deleted because it wasn't cordial, and he was banned for complaining about it.

I wonder, (and this isn't strictly speaking directed at you,) was your post cordial? I don't know where the line is anymore, but the post that was deleted this morning was less offensive than this. So I would guess this one is in jeopardy as well.

This morning a member was banned because his post wasn't "cordial". Actually, his post was deleted because it wasn't cordial, and he was banned for complaining about it.

I wonder, (and this isn't strictly speaking directed at you,) was your post cordial? I don't know where the line is anymore, but the post that was deleted this morning was less offensive than this. So I would guess this one is in jeopardy as well.
I figured he agreed with nilsp and his post was intended generally. Was I wrong?

You understand that they didn't draw a sample randomly from the popultion, correct? They had to model the sample they drew, and use their best guesses to fill in the gaps. We don't know how accurate their model is. And there is no way to model data like that that without speculation. It would be easy for the model to be off, and the figures to be completely wrong.

Oops.. Better tell Tosh to quit dealing with these lamers at NPD and their bum data !! ;)
Toshiba America Consumer Products is a division of one of the nation’s leading high-technology companies, specializing in electronics products for the home and office. The company’s Director of Marketing, Digital A/V Group, Jodi Sally, looks to NPD’s sales and marketing information for insights into the television, digital video recorder, DVD player and home theater markets. Here, she shares her perspective on the value of NPD’s market information and discusses how the data is used by Toshiba America.
http://www.npdinsights.com/corp/enewsletter/html/archives/june2004/close_up.html

b2b

Skogan, I hope nobody reports him! :) There are only a few BD supporters left on this forum! :)



I was surprised about that post+poster incident too. However, I do think that it will be better in general if we all debate the points rather than roll on the floor laughing at others! :p
[EDIT: Above paragraph not directed at anyone particular; not the least at Ilka]

Get well soon Tom

Oops.. Better tell Tosh to quit dealing with these lamers at NPD and their bum data !! ;)

http://www.npdinsights.com/corp/enewsletter/html/archives/june2004/close_up.html

b2b

That's great and all, but it has nothing to do with the point I was making.

Skogan, I hope nobody reports him! :) There are only a few BD supporters left on this forum! :)



I was surprised about that post+poster incident too. However, I do think that it will be better in general if we all debate the points rather than roll on the floor laughing at others! :p
[EDIT: Above paragraph not directed at anyone particular; not the least at Ilka]

Me too :)

It was just weird this morning. Almost arbitrary.

Of course... They're holding back releasing games to MAKE people buy movies. Why didn't I think of that.... :eek:

BTW, finally got the PS3 installed last night and watched Superman Returns with the family. They were all impressed. :) And, that MotorStorm demo rocks!

Was the demo finally 1080p60? Or 720p30?

That's great and all, but it has nothing to do with the point I was making.

That the data is bad because you are disappointed in the result ?? If you are disappointed, imagine how bad Toshiba feels being a customer of NPD data products... ;)

b2b

That the data is bad because you are disappointed in the result ?? If you are disappointed, imagine how bad Toshiba feels being a customer of NPD data products... ;)

b2b
My point was about the use of samples that aren't randomly collected, and the degree of confidence one puts in them. I have already said that I provisionally accept these numbers as accurate even though they go against the weight of what our previous sources indicate. But I don't have a great degree of confidence in them until we know more.

This is opposed to the OP implication that the methodology provided metaphysical proof one way or the other. He acted incredulous that anyone would dare question these numbers. Kind of like you are doing.

But your both wrong, in my opinion. This data is the best we have, and we should accept that. But we should also not pretend that it is proven beyond a doubt. There is some question of their validity.

That the data is bad because you are disappointed in the result ?? If you are disappointed, imagine how bad Toshiba feels being a customer of NPD data products... ;)

b2b A lot of us have said that NPD data is usually first rate but it can have its limitations, This is one scenario where it has less accuracy than others.

But since the whole conversation was about Blu-ray standalones closing the gap of HD DVD players at the end of last year, (if you don't count Xbox 360 add ons) that was no surprise because for most of Oct Nov and Dec, there were few HD DVD 1st generation players to sell and there was a gap before the HD A2's reached the street.

If Blu-ray hadn't somewhat closed the gap in that period, there would have been people jumping out of the windows in the BDA offices.

We all know the Xbox 360 add on was the only HD DVD player actively sold during that period. If Blu-ray players did not close the gap when they had no competiton then that would be a real story.

Lets look at stand alone sales this quarter, when both formats have palyers available in inventory at the retail level.

A lot of us have said that NPD data is usually first rate but it can have its limitations, This is one scenario where it has less accuracy than others.

But since the whole conversation was about Blu-ray standalones closing the gap of HD DVD players at the end of last year, (if you don't count Xbox 360 add ons) that was no surprise because for most of Oct Nov and Dec, there were few HD DVD 1st generation players to sell and there was a gap before the HD A2's reached the street.

If Blu-ray hadn't somewhat closed the gap in that period, there would have been people jumping out of the windows in the BDA offices.

We all know the Xbox 360 add on was the only HD DVD player actively sold during that period. If Blu-ray players did not close the gap when they had no competiton then that would be a real story.

Lets look at stand alone sales this quarter, when both formats have palyers available in inventory at the retail level.

I can accept Toshiba shipping 70,000 players (60,000 sell though) vs. 55-60,000 total sales of all BD players being sold. Add up 90-100,000 Xbox addons, minus 5,000 for PC drives and that matches Toshiba's 175,000 number pretty close.
-- How many HD DVD players were sold last year?

Uchiyama: We shipped 70,000 units last year in all of HD DVD players. Probably over 60,000 via sell through. We don't have actual numbers for each product type, but sales of 2nd generation is better (than 1st gen.). About half of the sales in last year was 2nd gen. players, especially in December, there was favorable sales and many players were sold.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers come in for 1st quarter '07 now that Tosh has loads of A2s they are trying to sell. ;)

b2b

We all know the Xbox 360 add on was the only HD DVD player actively sold during that period. If Blu-ray players did not close the gap when they had no competiton then that would be a real story.You seem not to be bothered by reading my previous post. I pointed that a VP of Toshiba America mentioned that G2 players were sold better than G1 last year and G2 players shared almost half of the total sales of HD DVD players last year.

Lets look at stand alone sales this quarter, when both formats have palyers available in inventory at the retail level.Let's see. Watching player sales ranking on Amazon, HD DVD could have favorable trend.

I am surprised at how things went with my poll on the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=800495) and though I was expecting some hostility the number of personal attacks I received from it was far higher than I expected. What really gets to me about most of the angry responses in the thread was that so few of them tried to refute what I said. In fact almost all of them agreed with me but attacked me for pointing out that the website was biased. The only poster who even tried to refute what I said was rdjam and he did that in between posting a stream of personal attacks against me. It is not hard to notice that the mods criticized none of those personal attacks or took any action against those posters.

I used to like AVS Forum a lot but I am rather dismayed not only with what happened in my poll but the fact that it is now forbidden to criticize the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9690066&&#post9690066). To be honest I am rather hurt about this since as much as I have been told that AVS Forum was biased for HD DVD until now I never really believed it.

I am surprised at how things went with my poll on the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=800495) and though I was expecting some hostility the number of personal attacks I received from it was far higher than I expected. What really gets to me about most of the angry responses in the thread was that so few of them tried to refute what I said. In fact almost all of them agreed with me but attacked me for pointing out that the website was biased. The only poster who even tried to refute what I said was rdjam and he did that in between posting a stream of personal attacks against me. It is not hard to notice that the mods criticized none of those personal attacks or took any action against those posters.

I used to like AVS Forum a lot but I am rather dismayed not only with what happened in my poll but the fact that it is now forbidden to criticize the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9690066&&#post9690066). To be honest I am rather hurt about this since as much as I have been told that AVS Forum was biased for HD DVD until now I never really believed it.

Believe it! lol

I can accept Toshiba shipping 70,000 players (60,000 sell though) vs. 55-60,000 total sales of all BD players being sold. Add up 90-100,000 Xbox addons, minus 5,000 for PC drives and that matches Toshiba's 175,000 number pretty close.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers come in for 1st quarter '07 now that Tosh has loads of A2s they are trying to sell. ;)

b2b Who is this person and what happened to my friend the real b2bonez? :)

Rio answer here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9695186&&#post9695186

I believe he was being very conservative in that article as is Toshiba's corporate culture and he also was not addressing the sales of the RCA/Thompson and Wal-Mart branded HD A1 clones.

At the time of the interview he may not have known of all the channel sales of the HD XA1 and may have been reluctant to count those as sold. But other Toshiba sources and sales figures have also indicated a 4:1 ratio with the HD XA1 being the last 1st generation model built.

Not to say that that there might have been only 11% HD XA1's built as he said but 20% seems to be a much nicer number to make and the 39.4% to 10.4% figures seems too close to a round number ratio of 4:1 to be coincidental.

of the HD A1 and XA1 owners identified in the survey thats a total of 548 players

435/548 = 79.38%
113/548 = 20.32% or a almost perfect 4;1 ratio

Thats either a very unlikely coincidence or that looks like a ratio a decison maker would approve.

Who is this person and what happened to my friend the real b2bonez? :)

I said trying to sell... ;) My guesstimate is about 15,000 per month.. (don't forget they have the addon @ < $199 to compete with)

b2b

I am surprised at how things went with my poll on the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=800495) and though I was expecting some hostility the number of personal attacks I received from it was far higher than I expected. What really gets to me about most of the angry responses in the thread was that so few of them tried to refute what I said. In fact almost all of them agreed with me but attacked me for pointing out that the website was biased. The only poster who even tried to refute what I said was rdjam and he did that in between posting a stream of personal attacks against me. It is not hard to notice that the mods criticized none of those personal attacks or took any action against those posters.

I used to like AVS Forum a lot but I am rather dismayed not only with what happened in my poll but the fact that it is now forbidden to criticize the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9690066&&#post9690066). To be honest I am rather hurt about this since as much as I have been told that AVS Forum was biased for HD DVD until now I never really believed it.


Wow! Just let it go man. You've usually been an intelligent and interesting read on these forums. That poll and this post is beneath you. Please move on.

To be honest I am rather hurt about this ....

If you really want to know ... that poll was seen as a personal attack against another forum member. Esp. after how another BD supporter used a new alias to try do the same thing ....

Afterall - I can also start a poll saying is Richard biased and quote a few of your posts. And you can do the same for me (or many others).

All this adds no value to AVS ....

Rio answer here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9695186&&#post9695186So... the conclusion is, no one know exactly what is going on now? ;)

Toshiba America VP doesn't know the sales number, HD DVD PRG doesn't know whether the upcoming title list is correct, NPD doesn't know the trend, Amazon doesn't know etc., etc.

Toshiba America VP doesn't know the sales number....

Did his numbers include rebadges ?

If you really want to know ... that poll was seen as a personal attack against another forum member. Esp. after how another BD supporter used a new alias to try do the same thing ....

Afterall - I can also start a poll saying is Richard biased and quote a few of your posts. And you can do the same for me (or many others).

All this adds no value to AVS ....

True, but what *was* interesting was the reference by a certain declared MS insider to that website.

True, but what *was* interesting was the reference by a certain declared MS insider to that website.

What is *so* interesting about it ? It is a site that promotes HD DVD ... it is as interesting as a democratic site referencing moveon.

Did his numbers include rebadges ?What you read was what I read. This is just my opinion whithout any backup, but considering the numbers Toshiba has mentioned sometime was counting not only standalone players but also Xbox360 addons and even PC drives as "HD DVD players", I won't be surprised if the number form the exec was counting Walmart one and RCA one as G1 players.

But... no one knows. ;)

What you read was what I read. This is just my opinion whithout any backup, but considering the numbers Toshiba has mentioned sometime was counting not only standalone players but also Xbox360 addons and even PC drives as "HD DVD players", I won't be surprised if the number form the exec was counting Walmart one and RCA one as G1 players.

But... no one knows. ;)

I have never taken the time to complement you, but your written English is almost perfect (I assume your native language is Japanese). Did you learn English in school or is it something you picked up along the way ??

b2b

I think it will be like VHS. It will require DVD sales to totally tank before the studios give up a revenue stream. They'll keep selling DVD while it is profitable to do so.

I just got my parents a Westinghouse 27" LCD TV (the largest that would fit in their entertainment unit). That's 1280x720. I can't really see how they'd ever see much of a difference with HD discs over a good DVD.

I expect HD disc popularity to even out at the relationship between larger HDTV (>= 32") and smaller (< 32") sales.

I disagree. I think you are missing two points due to the facts today.

1) player prices will continue to drop and DVD players are ever harder to make a decent buck. In a couple of years (assuming things go well) I think DVD players will more or less be dropped for HD players. The thing is that unlike VHS, no one needs a DVD player> I still have VHS tapes (not that I use them) and in a way that still makes VHS needed in the home.

2) once new players means HD and older dead DVD players are being replaced by new HD players studios interest in DVD will drop.

DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY. Dooo dooo doo do do dooodoodooo.

All the various reports considered that I have read, still support 60-70,000 1st generation units shipped and sold in 2006. I beleive I saw that article but the translation was rough.

I think the question is how many shipped and sold in NA.

Afterall - I can also start a poll saying is Richard biased and quote a few of your posts. And you can do the same for me (or many others).
Sure. But Richard, you and me are people on a forum with personal opinions. People expect that on a public forum. We're not a website that supposedly is educating the consumer about HD, but instead presents blatant lies as truth, not to mention how "objectively" things are presented. I wholeheartedly agree with Richard. As did most who answered the poll before it was shut down.

I'm sure glad that is not a pro Blu-ray site, I'd then expect the BDA to take steps to shut it down. Is any technology well served by supporters trying to win people over by lying and twisting the truth to serve their purpose? Just wondering.

I disagree. I think you are missing two points due to the facts today.

1) player prices will continue to drop and DVD players are ever harder to make a decent buck. In a couple of years (assuming things go well) I think DVD players will more or less be dropped for HD players. The thing is that unlike VHS, no one needs a DVD player> I still have VHS tapes (not that I use them) and in a way that still makes VHS needed in the home.

2) once new players means HD and older dead DVD players are being replaced by new HD players studios interest in DVD will drop.

My only comment is that the attrition time will take many years to replace all of the DVD players that are currently in use by the public.
119,462,278
(3/97 to 11/24/06)

120 million players is a lot to be replaced in anything less than a 5-7 year period.

Not to mention that DVD players are still selling at 2.5 million a month at the present time.

b2b

I am surprised at how things went with my poll on the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=800495) and though I was expecting some hostility the number of personal attacks I received from it was far higher than I expected. What really gets to me about most of the angry responses in the thread was that so few of them tried to refute what I said. In fact almost all of them agreed with me but attacked me for pointing out that the website was biased. The only poster who even tried to refute what I said was rdjam and he did that in between posting a stream of personal attacks against me. It is not hard to notice that the mods criticized none of those personal attacks or took any action against those posters.

I used to like AVS Forum a lot but I am rather dismayed not only with what happened in my poll but the fact that it is now forbidden to criticize the hdnowonline website (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9690066&&#post9690066). To be honest I am rather hurt about this since as much as I have been told that AVS Forum was biased for HD DVD until now I never really believed it.

That site is such a joke, I don't know how anyone can take it seriously. It might as well be called www.rdjamswackedouttheories.com.

My only comment is that the attrition time will take many years to replace all of the DVD players that are currently in use by the public.


120 million players is a lot to be replaced in anything less than a 5-7 year period.

Not to mention that DVD players are still selling at 2.5 million a month at the present time.

b2b
Perhaps this is why the PS3 strategy holds such pull for the studios.

2.5M a month is quite staggering. Wonder what the net profit will be this year on those 30M dvd players.

I'm sure glad that is not a pro Blu-ray site, I'd then expect the BDA to take steps to shut it down. Is any technology well served by supporters trying to win people over by lying and twisting the truth to serve their purpose? Just wondering.

See the thread about disney ? Did you see the CES PR from BD, Fox ... where have you been ?

But... no one knows. ;)

Exactly. So, what exactly are we using those numbers to argue for ?

So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?

Every time any producer of either format makes any policy statement I see a rash of "I was all for _______ until they decided that, now though it pains me, I'm going have to go with_______"

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?
I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest, proving it on the other hand, well of course thats another story.

Exactly. So, what exactly are we using those numbers to argue for ?Maybe to balance the arguments, or probably we are liking to see any thread of clue to backup ourselves. ;)

Do you want all AVSers to stop referring Amazon, DVD Empire, NPD, consulting research firms, each camp's press release, and even numbers from some insiders since no one can prove those being correct other than another insiders who has different interest. Perhaps if the numbers coming from competing camps are identical or similar, it would likely be credible?

So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?

Every time any producer of either format makes any policy statement I see a rash of "I was all for _______ until they decided that, now though it pains me, I'm going have to go with_______"

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?

I think you have a healthy level of skepticism. The number of oH nOes, teh sKy si falliNg! threads and posts, simply isn't supported by any reality of this stage in the game. IMHO, format neutrality makes sense, while an outright "defection" from one side to the other....selling a disc collection, etc. would not only be terribly premature, but more than a little goofy.

I think you have a healthy level of skepticism. The number of oH nOes, teh sKy si falliNg! threads and posts, simply isn't supported by any reality of this stage in the game. IMHO, format neutrality makes sense, while an outright "defection" from one side to the other....selling a disc collection, etc. would not only be terribly premature, but more than a little goofy.

I completely agree. It may also be a "staged" cry for help to get the attention of the studios etc. As such it is probably a waste of time. The sky is falling stuff is really annoying and makes me wonder the agenda of the poster. Why bother - why not just move to the other format and be done with it! Are these just attention getting posts or FUD or both?

Cheers,

Grant

Did his numbers include rebadges ?The 175k+ total number for NA that Toshiba gave out at CES should have included rebadges given that they listed multiple items (like the XBOX360 add-on) and said they estimated that those got them to 175k+. If the add-on sold 100k-110k (assuming the NPD numbers were on the light side at 92k, as I think bkilian's posts imply) then the Toshiba VPs numbers match up much better with the 175k+ total than the 70k Gen1s and another 60k Gen2s (not counting add-ons) from Robert. I personally find it quite incredible that a self selecting poll on this site is being given more credence than the VP of Toshiba America.

--Darin

So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?

Every time any producer of either format makes any policy statement I see a rash of "I was all for _______ until they decided that, now though it pains me, I'm going have to go with_______"

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?
I seriously doubt anyone setup an account a many months ago and nurtured it for a long time only to spring a defection on the assembled membership.

Or, are you just questioning the motives of newcomers, such as yourself?

Gary

So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?


I've seen a few of those, but you need the context of said poster(s) history to really appreciate it. Even being new, you can backcheck that either through his existing posts or in the archives. In many cases, these guys WERE apparently die hard supporters who were first extreme advocates and then disillusioned and then as extremely die hard on the other side.

I've seen people make similar switches on politics, religion, sports, cars, etc. Former cigarette smokers tend to be the worst, but that's neither here nor there. :D


These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?


Heh, I don't think any "moles" have ever been proven, though it would be amusing. I tend to post more from the Blu-ray side, but that's mostly because I find more HD DVD supporters with more posts disagreeable enough for me to express my disagreement with more than any views of inherent superiority of either format. I'll go where the content is, as I'm voting with my wallet. HD DVD had a lead for awhile, but it switched to parity and is now leaning Blu-ray... and looking at the future that trend doesn't appear likely to reverse, though one never knows what surprises lie in store. Toshiba comes out with a nice silver G2/G3 player in a realistic price range for me to consider and I'll most likely grab it. Right now, though I still intend to stay with my game consoles for at least the duration of 2007, though.

I still long to think of what a wonderful Blu-ray player Toshiba could make (I always liked their DVD players)...

With the ever-widening lead in Blu-ray sales it becomes an increasingly large lost opportunity for Universal. It's certainly possible that their support of Blu-ray would be the death knell for HD DVD as a format, but since Universal doesn't appear to have a significant intellectual property stake in HD DVD's success it's not clear that this would be a deterrent for them as long as the end result is higher sales of their movies.
Stick this in your spin filter, or you'll be spinned! (it works in the opposite sense for BD)

I seriously doubt anyone setup an account a many months ago and nurtured it for a long time only to spring a defection on the assembled membership.

Or, are you just questioning the motives of newcomers, such as yourself?

Gary

No, I just tend not to flip-flop on my convictions quite so much. I support HD-DVD for about four important distinctions (to me), those won't change, so I'm not all that likely to change just because BD has a surge.

I want HD-DVD to survive, but I'm not hungry for a BD kill, and had I a dual format player at a reasonable price I would buy a few BD titles, but I wouldn't plop down another $800 to a $1000 on a BD players since it could go plooey.

I have 3000 SDs a DVDO upconvertor, limited funds, and plenty of time to support what find worthy of support.

So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?

Every time any producer of either format makes any policy statement I see a rash of "I was all for _______ until they decided that, now though it pains me, I'm going have to go with_______"

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen? Most of the time they are people with 2006 or 2007 join dates and low post counts. and they tend to start new threads. Mostly transparent if you know what to look for. ;)

I seriously doubt anyone setup an account a many months ago and nurtured it for a long time only to spring a defection on the assembled membership.

Or, are you just questioning the motives of newcomers, such as yourself?

Gary OMG :eek: That would be sleeper cells on AVS :D

I still long to think of what a wonderful Blu-ray player Toshiba could make (I always liked their DVD players)...

When the uber cheapo Chinese HD-DVD players get here they can start making dual-format players like LG... ;)

b2b

No, I just tend not to flip-flop on my convictions quite so much. I support HD-DVD for about four important distinctions (to me), those won't change, so I'm not all that likely to change just because BD has a surge.

I want HD-DVD to survive, but I'm not hungry for a BD kill, and had I a dual format player at a reasonable price I would buy a few BD titles, but I wouldn't plop down another $800 to a $1000 on a BD players since it could go plooey.

I have 3000 SDs a DVDO upconvertor, limited funds, and plenty of time to support what find worthy of support. Pretty much describes me too. I would consider buying a Blu-ray player when prices drop some more.

But I believe HD DVD is they way for more niche content and catalog titles to find their way to HD and I think Blu-ray is more a big studios toy.

Pretty much describes me too. I would consider buying a Blu-ray player when prices drop some more.

But I believe HD DVD is they way for more niche content and catalog titles to find their way to HD and I think Blu-ray is more a big studios toy.

Exactly. If porn has taught us anything :p , it's that there is room for an HD disc with ease of entry :p

That's why I kind of resent BD supporters telling me HD-DVD has to go, when I don't see them filling the gap that would be left. It's also why I see room for two, and hope this gets settled in more flexible hardware.

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Blu-ray is better in specs and support.

I think universal should start making Blu-ray movies.

I think most HD-DVD supporters on here know that HD-DVD will fail (it will).

I hope they all of the (seemingly unreasonable) HD-DVD supporters will still be as gung-ho for all of universal's marginal movies as they are now when these "great catalog titles" come out on Blu-ray so we can have at least one surviving format.

As it stands now, the only way to really support HD movies is to support blu-ray.

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Blu-ray is better in specs and support.

I think universal should start making Blu-ray movies.

I think most HD-DVD supporters on here know that HD-DVD will fail (it will).

I hope they all of the (seemingly unreasonable) HD-DVD supporters will still be as gung-ho for all of universal's marginal movies as they are now when these "great catalog titles" come out on Blu-ray so we can have at least one surviving format.

As it stands now, the only way to really support HD movies is to support blu-ray.
You sound delusional. :p

I think Disney And the rest of em should start making HD DVD movies..
Disney could have some nice IME HDi features for the kiddies...
I really want "Dude where is my Car", "AVP" and "G.I. Jane" so bad! :D

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Blu-ray is better in specs and support.

I think universal should start making Blu-ray movies.

I think most HD-DVD supporters on here know that HD-DVD will fail (it will).

I hope they all of the (seemingly unreasonable) HD-DVD supporters will still be as gung-ho for all of universal's marginal movies as they are now when these "great catalog titles" come out on Blu-ray so we can have at least one surviving format.

As it stands now, the only way to really support HD movies is to support blu-ray.
that is your opinion and you are entitled to it. :p

for the foreseeable future I say "no" to the BDA / Sony world domination of High Definition and "no" to being told what to do when there is another lower cost, better quality format.

I get to see one or two movies a week and have yet to see all the 60+ HD DVD titles I already own. The kids love the upconverting PQ of the 100+ Disney and childrens titles they own on SD, so i will not ever have to replace those with HD DVD ones....

Why do you and the many other BD fanboys keep preaching and trying to convince me and other happy HD DVD format owners that we are in a soon to be (lol) dead format?

WHY DO YOU BLU RAY GUYS CARE EITHER WAY? are you are afraid of BD going nowhere or have the need to be right on a forum?

I think all you PS3 junkies need to give the HD DVD format a try for a change.... go pick up a player and spin some nice HD DVD movies....
what you afraid that a lower cost A2 may be in fact BETTER than a PS3 when it comes to playback and upconversion.... don't go bashing HD DVD if you don't have it, you have no right.

Go pick one up, then come back and preach doom and gloom for HD DVD like Jeff does so well :p ;)

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Blu-ray is better in specs and support.

I think universal should start making Blu-ray movies.

I think most HD-DVD supporters on here know that HD-DVD will fail (it will).

I hope they all of the (seemingly unreasonable) HD-DVD supporters will still be as gung-ho for all of universal's marginal movies as they are now when these "great catalog titles" come out on Blu-ray so we can have at least one surviving format.

As it stands now, the only way to really support HD movies is to support blu-ray.

I think people shouldn't say i'm "seemingly unreasonable" simply because I prefer HD DVD.

I think people shouldn't state their guesses as facts (BD and HD DVD may or may not fail).

I think there are several ways to support HD movies.

I think your post is flame bait.

I think you're one post away from joining my ignore list for new people who don't really add anything to this site.

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Blu-ray is better in specs and support.

I think universal should start making Blu-ray movies.

I think most HD-DVD supporters on here know that HD-DVD will fail (it will).

I hope they all of the (seemingly unreasonable) HD-DVD supporters will still be as gung-ho for all of universal's marginal movies as they are now when these "great catalog titles" come out on Blu-ray so we can have at least one surviving format.

As it stands now, the only way to really support HD movies is to support blu-ray.

Wishful thinking...

So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?

Every time any producer of either format makes any policy statement I see a rash of "I was all for _______ until they decided that, now though it pains me, I'm going have to go with_______"

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?

"Viral Marketing" and "Roach Baiting" are Sony marketing practices. They used them with the PSP and camera phones. Sony marketers are well aware of this forum and certainly use it for their own purposes.

Sadly, these tactics are becoming more pervasive with all corporations. It would be great if more "insiders" would declare themselves like Amir and Talkstr8t have.

All these "The Sky is falling" threads seem to follow similar formats.

I think the best solution would be a "The sky is falling" sticky thread for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray forums and aggressive deleting of new threads and even some responses along this topic line by the mods.

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Apparently so did the DVD Forum, thats why only one format was agreed upon and approved as the standard for high def, guess which format that was?

Sometimes I get the feeling they can't win this thing with good products at fair prices, so they decide to badger and scare us into converting to blu-ray. I think some of these folks are turning into cult followers. They can't really win the format war outright, so they keep telling us they have already won it, are winning it, and will win it in the future. The Siren song is getting old. They complain about skipping (which most HD DVD players don't do), slow loading times, lousy remotes, and the like; but they can't come up with a single blu-ray player that plays CDs, upconverts as well as the best Denons, supports interactive features, decodes advanced audio, has an ethernet port, and is available at a price real people can afford. So they whine; they bully; they call themselves format neutral; they buy and return players as if they were rentals; and... Yeesh.

Okay, I give up. I surrender. I'll go out and spend too much money to buy what looks like a George Foreman grill to play movies I don't really like. NOT.

The signal to noise ratio has got to improve, don't you think?

Pretty much describes me too. I would consider buying a Blu-ray player when prices drop some more.

But I believe HD DVD is they way for more niche content and catalog titles to find their way to HD and I think Blu-ray is more a big studios toy.

BDP-1000s can be had for around 400$

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/5325/screenshotxn3.th.png (http://img357.imageshack.us/my.php?image=screenshotxn3.png)

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Blu-ray is better in specs and support.

I think universal should start making Blu-ray movies.

I think most HD-DVD supporters on here know that HD-DVD will fail (it will).

I hope they all of the (seemingly unreasonable) HD-DVD supporters will still be as gung-ho for all of universal's marginal movies as they are now when these "great catalog titles" come out on Blu-ray so we can have at least one surviving format.

As it stands now, the only way to really support HD movies is to support blu-ray.
Yep: 34 posts. Kinda proves the point, doesn't it? :p

BDP-1000s can be had for around 400$

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/5325/screenshotxn3.th.png (http://img357.imageshack.us/my.php?image=screenshotxn3.png)

It's about twice that when I check ebay... :confused:

BDP-1000s can be had for around 400$

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/5325/screenshotxn3.th.png (http://img357.imageshack.us/my.php?image=screenshotxn3.png)
Great! Are those authorized dealers? Full warranty?

New? Used? Refurbs?

Can I return it in thirty days? Three days?

Oh, Ebay... :confused:

I think there should be 1 format for HD movies.

Great.

But I'd rather that paying public (remember cusomer is King) should decide which format that is than be bulldozed by studios ... or for that matter by some newbie like you :p

Great! Are those authorized dealers? Full warranty?

New? Used? Refurbs?

Can I return it in thirty days? Three days?

Oh, Ebay... :confused:

Wow, people are really trying to get rid of their legacy format players cheap. They must see the writing on the wall. j/k :)

Yes, I have only 34 posts, and only started my home theater this year. I was going to be format neutral. I asked for HD-DVD and Blu-ray titles for christmas this year and recieved both.

I did copious research on every part of my home theater, and I just figured I would have to get both HD-DVD and Blu-ray to supply movies to my great gear.

I did much research on this forum and other sources, and when it finally was time to get my HD players, I really did a lot of reading to decide which format's player to buy first.

I noticed a lot of things.

Blu-ray had MANY more studios and titles. I had not realized that it was so skewed in favor of blu-ray. I saw the incredible problems that the HD-DVD players were having. It seems the only good thing about the HD-DVD players is that they are good at upconverting (I already have an OPPO for that). I also realized how much more storage and futureproof the Blu-ray format offered, and the great reviews the PS3 was getting.

What I decided was to look at the FACTS and realized that HD-DVD was not offering much of anything beyond the Universal catalog. I made the bet that Universal will go to Blu-ray and went full into Blu-ray (taking back the HD-DVD titles I recieved for christmas). It seems that many people have been making the same decision as I have in the Dec-Feb timeframe.

Since that decision, I have only been happier and happier.

The HD-DVD supporters on this forum are getting less in number and more irrational in their arguements. The almost paranoid responses to my post bear this out.

I represent the demographic the HD movie market craves. I went into the "game" with a total clean slate. Blu-ray won me over.
Now I just wish that the HD-DVD supporters would get rid of their bias and get over it. HD-DVD will not survive. The writing is on the wall. The more people that get behind Blu-ray, the better its chances are of surviving. I just want one format to survive, and it is clear to me that the format with the best chance is Blu-ray.

If you can't make any clear points and only attack the number of posts that I have or spout unoriginal and poorly concieved quips, then you are not helping HD movie penetration. You really aren't helping anything except your feeling of smugness when you won't argue with ideas. I would prefer to further Blu-ray, so that we can all have many HD movies to watch in the future.

Originally Posted by MASrules

HD-DVD will not survive. The writing is on the wall. The more people that get behind Blu-ray, the better its chances are of surviving.

Are you saying that if HD-DVD supporters do not convert to Blu-ray then Blu-ray will not survive either ????

MASrules:
If only BD existed you would have been stuck with the poor quality encodes and players (still lacking some standard HD features) that we saw when they started out last year. Thanks to HD DVD, it was apparent BD products were inferior, and they started pulling up their socks. They still have to prove they are superior in quality of transfers, features, price or quantity of titles. So your smugness doesn't prove BD is superior either.

Yes, I have only 34 posts, and only started my home theater this year. I was going to be format neutral. I asked for HD-DVD and Blu-ray titles for christmas this year and recieved both.

I did copious research on every part of my home theater, and I just figured I would have to get both HD-DVD and Blu-ray to supply movies to my great gear.

I did much research on this forum and other sources, and when it finally was time to get my HD players, I really did a lot of reading to decide which format's player to buy first.

I noticed a lot of things.

That's a great story. You should tell it more often.

Blu-ray had MANY more studios

BD has 3 that HD DVD doesn't have. HD DVD has 1 that BD doesn't have, giving BD 2 more studios. That's not "many". That's a "few." Now if you want to count smaller, indie, and foreign studios, than HD DVD might actually have more.


and titles.


They currently have about the same number number of titles out.


I saw the incredible problems that the HD-DVD players were having. It seems the only good thing about the HD-DVD players is that they are good at upconverting (I already have an OPPO for that).

I, and most people, never had problems with their HD DVD players.


The HD-DVD supporters on this forum are getting less in number and more irrational in their arguements. The almost paranoid responses to my post bear this out.

This is a direct insult to me as well as other HD DVD supporters, and it's a prime example why you are going on my ignore list.

I am the intelligent, very well paid, young man

Good for you. If only we could all describe ourselves as intelligent and well paid. Let me guess, you're going to tell us you're good looking and well endowed too? Please, keep on telling us how smart and rich you are, because we care.



Now I just wish that the HD-DVD supporters would get rid of their bias and get over it.


Once again, this is why you are going on ignore immediately after I post this.


HD-DVD will not survive.

You have no clue what you are talking about.

You really aren't helping anything except your feeling of smugness.

How dare you post that and then accuse anyone else of smugness. Outrageous.


Anyway, welcome to my ignore list you self-described intelligent, very well paid, young man. You can respond to this or not, I don't really care. I won't read it. But If you are anything other than a Sony bot then you should know that even after this format war is over, and we are onto different things, I'll still have you on ignore.

Are you saying that if HD-DVD supporters do not convert to Blu-ray then Blu-ray will not survive either ????
They don't all have to convert, but I am very afraid that the public will not buy either format. The longer the war goes on, the better the chances we will never see mainstream acceptance ANY HD movie format.

I realize that this is all my opinion, but history says that if a single format is presented, it at least has a chance to be popular. If mulitple competitive formats are presented, there is almost no chance to be popular.

My fear is that without all studios behind a single format, neither will survive.

It is very clear to me the easiest way to get to a single format is for Universal to switch to blu-ray. This seems likely to happen.

One format, more movies, more acceptance, better chance of HD movies reaching saturation and penetration to the point were DVD is today.

I realize that a year ago it was not clear which way the war would go, and support of HD-DVD was much easier to defend/go with. Today the situation is different. The major studios did not cave, Current PQ with blu-ray is as good as HD-DVD, the PS3 (finally) did come to bear on the market ( and doing very well). These things are what ensures HD-DVD's doom in my opinion.

I am not a fanboy or totally sure of Blu-ray's survival either, but its chances are MUCH better than that of HD-DVD, and would be much better if HD-DVD would go away sooner rather than later

Good for you. If only we could all describe ourselves as intelligent and well paid. Let me guess, you're going to tell us you're good looking and well endowed too? Please, keep on telling us how smart and rich you are, because we care....
hehehe, you got me laughing :p

he forgot this isn't myspace or adultfriendfinder... lol ;)

I am the intelligent, very well paid, young man demographic the HD movie market craves.

Hmmm...Yet this very same demographic that would blow $600 on a video game and $60 for its software have zilch, zero, nada interest in viewing $40 HD porn which HD-DVD has cornered... :rolleyes:

I have only tried to elaborate who/what I am, and how I reached where I am today in the format war after one personal attack involving the number of posts I have. Insinuating I am an underhanded plant is false and bordering on a personal attack.

Skogan, I am sorry that you don't agree with me. I posted that information in response to a bogus personal attack, see above.

Your response was uncalled for and a definate personal attack.

I stated my opinion and you did nothing but attack me. That is not meaningful converstation. Its going to get awfully lonely if you put everyone who does not agree with you on your ignore list.

The HD-DVD supporters on this forum are getting less in number and more irrational in their arguements. The almost paranoid responses to my post bear this out.

You are a troll and it shows. Reported to mods.

I am the intelligent ....

hahahaha ... I like your sense of humor.

You are a troll and it shows. Reported to mods.



hahahaha ... I like your sense of humor.
I am a troll? Giving my opinion on HD software in the HD software forum, in a format battle thread?

Why do so many have such thin skin?

Why is there only name calling and not much discussion these days?

I am a troll? Giving my opinion on HD software in the HD software forum, in a format battle thread?

Why do so many have such thin skin?

Why is there only name calling and not much discussion these days?

Because you think for yourself and examine the facts and have come to a conclusion that the die hard HD-DVD fans can't deal with. Don't let them get to you. The worst they can do is just type something... :D

b2b

Because you think for yourself and examine the facts and have come to a conclusion that the die hard HD-DVD fans can't deal with. Don't let them get to you. The worst they can do is just type something... :D

b2b

Well, at least SOMEONE is impressed that MASrules is smart and rich :p

Because you think for yourself and examine the facts and have come to a conclusion that the die hard HD-DVD fans can't deal with. Don't let them get to you. The worst they can do is just type something... :D

b2b

Or maybe it's because he started out by calling us "seemingly unreasonable" and irrational and smug? If his tone had been different, he wouldn't be on my ignore list right now. But don't start out by hurling insults and then start crying when people don't like it.

However, you are unfortunately correct. The worst we can do is type stuff.. (although I am looking into varous voo doo sects for alternatives) :)

....I am the intelligent, very well paid, young man demographic the HD movie market craves. I went into the "game" with a total clean slate. Blu-ray won me over. Now I just wish that the HD-DVD supporters would get rid of their bias and get over it. HD-DVD will not survive. The writing is on the wall. The more people that get behind Blu-ray, the better its chances are of surviving. I just want one format to survive, and it is clear to me that the format with the best chance is Blu-ray.

If you can't make any clear points and only attack the number of posts that I have or spout unoriginal and poorly concieved quips, then you are not helping HD movie penetration. You really aren't helping anything except your feeling of smugness......

C'mon.....you couldn't possibly have typed this without comprehending the incredible irony of your post.

hint: beginning a conversation by telling people how bloody intelligent and wealthy you are is always, always, always, a bad idea.



did I mention it's always a bad idea?

BDP-1000s can be had for around 400$

http://img357.imageshack.us/img357/5325/screenshotxn3.th.png (http://img357.imageshack.us/my.php?image=screenshotxn3.png) OK any thing but that Samsung. ;) Though if its new that's a nice price. Maybe someone who posts here a lot and doesn't yet have a HD of either type should consider one? :p

Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk
So, just for my information, and because I'm new here. Are there contributers who pretend to support one format, then give "heart-felt" comments as to why they just "can't go on"?

Every time any producer of either format makes any policy statement I see a rash of "I was all for _______ until they decided that, now though it pains me, I'm going have to go with_______"

These seem like decoys pretending to defect from something they never supported to begin with. Does this happen?

It does seem likely, and probably on the rise recently. ;)

- Tom

Apparently so did the DVD Forum, thats why only one format was agreed upon and approved as the standard for high def, guess which format that was?


Seeing how most (if not all) of the BDA members are also in DVD Forum and abstained from voting definitely puts a different perspective on it, though.

Why wasn't the issue just forced in DVD Forum, anyway? It looks like BDA easily had the majority votes necessary unless major members hold the ability to veto?

Here is something that might have gone in the News thread - but mods don't want to see console sales numbers there.

Looks like Japan buyers have rejected the need for a HD console.


Japan: Wii Outselling PS3 3-to-1 - http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=15171

...in the most recent weekly chart the disparity between PS3 and Wii sales is even greater. 83,754 Wii consoles were sold compared to just 19,996 PS3s. The Xbox 360, as usual in Japan, trailed behind with 7,365 units.

Get that BDP-S1 down to $299 at a decent online retailer and I'd probably spring for one.

Even with that ugly blue bottom on it that doesn't match the rest of my AV system :p

I realize that this is all my opinion, but history says that if a single format is presented, it at least has a chance to be popular. If mulitple competitive formats are presented, there is almost no chance to be popular.

My fear is that without all studios behind a single format, neither will survive.
you mean like playstation vs xbox vs nintendo?

Get that BDP-S1 down to $299 at a decent online retailer and I'd probably spring for one.

I'll wait for a universal or a much cheaper PS3.

Extremely unlikely you'll ever see an unused BDP-S1 or PS3 at that price for at least 2 or 3 years.

Incidently that's about the threshold at which I'm willing to get an HD-XA1 and play Frankenstein with my 360 add-on, a new CPU, RAM and maybe liquid cooling. :D

Or maybe it's because he started out by calling us "seemingly unreasonable" and irrational and smug? If his tone had been different, he wouldn't be on my ignore list right now. But don't start out by hurling insults and then start crying when people don't like it.

However, you are unfortunately correct. The worst we can do is type stuff.. (although I am looking into varous voo doo sects for alternatives) :)

Voodoo doll pins don't work on BD discs... they've got the "hardcoat" to protect from scratches and overzealous HD-DVD witch doctors... ;)

But you could give it a try..
Revenge in the Palm of Your Hand This pocket-sized kit includes a voodoo doll, pins, and a 32-page introduction to voodoo spells and techniques. So, get out there and stick it to 'em!


http://www.kleargear.com/1871.html

b2b

C'mon.....you couldn't possibly have typed this without comprehending the incredible irony of your post.

hint: beginning a conversation by telling people how bloody intelligent and wealthy you are is always, always, always, a bad idea.



did I mention it's always a bad idea?
You are correct reading that post.

The fisrt part was just me trying to explain where I was coming from. I realize most people on here that can throw around money on home theater are probably in a similar demographic as myself.

The smugness line was in reference to how my opinions were not only discarded without an ounce of retort, but done so in such a high and mighty atmosphere.

I agree that the post should have been been written better, and I will slightly alter it, but I still believe that after I presented my opinion, several did nothing to refute it and only tried to attack the poster.

I already have a 360 and an A2, mebbe they would have that one on clearance sometime.

That blue sure is ugly though.

Here is something that might have gone in the News thread - but mods don't want to see console sales numbers there.

Looks like Japan buyers have rejected the need for a HD console.


Japan: Wii Outselling PS3 3-to-1 - http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=15171

I don't see why you are so happy about that. Wii is eating more of Xbox 360's lunch than PS3's.. ;)

b2b

Incidently that's about the threshold at which I'm willing to get an HD-XA1 and play Frankenstein with my 360 add-on, a new CPU, RAM and maybe liquid cooling. :D

I don't think you can get decent HTPC components for that price. What with RAM costing so much now-a-days ...

Thats the good thing about the hd dvd add-on. If you have 360, it is really a nice low-cost entry ...

I don't see why you are so happy about that. Wii is eating more of Xbox 360's lunch than PS3's.. ;)

b2b
Well its because HD DVD isn't as dependent on the Xbox 360 as Blu-ray is dependent on the success of the PS3. ;)

I don't see why you are so happy about that. Wii is eating more of Xbox 360's lunch than the PS3.. ;)

b2b


Actually, I was surprised that the 360 had sold about 1/2 as many players as the Ps3 in Japan. I thought the PS3 would sell 4X as well as the 360.

Originally Posted by b2bonez

Voodoo doll pins don't work on BD discs... they've got the "hardcoat" to protect from scratches and overzealous HD-DVD witch doctors...

Dang ... I was wondering why it wasn't working. That explains it!

I don't see why you are so happy about that. Wii is eating more of Xbox 360's lunch than PS3's..
Well its because HD DVD isn't as dependent on the Xbox 360 as Blu-ray is dependent on the success of the PS3. ;)

Looks like someone hasn't figured out about blacklists ... and continues to reply to me after several months !!

You are correct reading that post.

The fisrt part was just me trying to explain where I was coming from. I realize most people on here that can throw around money on home theater are probably in a similar demographic as myself.

The smugness line was in reference to how my opinions were not only discarded without an ounce of retort, but done so in such a high and mighty atmosphere.

I agree that the post should have been been written better, and I will slightly alter it, but I still believe that after I presented my opinion, several did nothing to refute it and only tried to attack the poster.

They are all just real grumpy right now with bad numbers for disc sales and the NPD report on player sales. You just happened to be the unlucky contestant that wandered in at bad moment.. ;)

b2b

Looks like someone hasn't figured out about blacklists ... and continues to reply to me after several months !!

Oh, I figured that out a long time ago... Makes it easy when you know there won't be a flaming retort coming back... :)

b2b

Well its because HD DVD isn't as dependent on the Xbox 360 as Blu-ray is dependent on the success of the PS3. ;)

If it wasn't for the addon HD-DVD would have been reporting 80,000 players for 2006 instead of 175,000... ;)

b2b

If it wasn't for the addon HD-DVD would have been reporting 80,000 players for 2006 instead of 175,000... ;)

b2b
As you've pointed out previously, 80K or 175K, it really doesn't matter anyway since many of the add-ons went to the same customers who bought the standalones. ;)

As you've pointed out previously, 80K or 175K, it really doesn't matter anyway since many of the add-ons went to the same customers who bought the standalones. ;)

Oops... I forgot about that. The poll here reported that 134 out of 912 (14.69%) addon owners also owned standalone players.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=4036

I guess after they own 2 or 3 HD-DVD players they will figure out that if they want to watch something different they will have to buy a PS3 or BD player... ;)

b2b

I guess after they own 2 or 3 HD-DVD players they will figure out that if they want to watch something different they will have to buy a PS3 or BD player...Hey I'm guilty of owning multiple HD DVD players. So I can watch the discs I purchased in multiple places. Granted if I want to expand my horizons beyond HD DVD -- I have to upconvert a DVD. Waiting for a $150 universal BD/HD DVD player.....

Didn't you say you have 10 DVD players and yet have problems burning a DVD that can be played in all of them? (Seriously get a new Plextor burner & Nero. Bitset Nero to always set DVD-ROM Book Type. Always finalize your burnt discs. That should get you good to go :) )

Wow! Just let it go man.What is so wrong about pointing out bias and factual errors on a website that is being used to promote HD DVD? Do you think that if a Blu-ray website like that existed we wouldn't have several threads criticizing it on this forum? I have seen many threads devoted to criticizing organizations, studios, CE companies, and even websites because of supposed bias and factual errors. Why than are posters not allowed to criticize the hdnowonline website?


If you really want to know ... that poll was seen as a personal attack against another forum member.I never mentioned the name of any forum member in that poll and are you saying that no one should be able to criticize a website if it is run by a forum member?


Afterall - I can also start a poll saying is Richard biased and quote a few of your posts. And you can do the same for me (or many others).That though would be a personal attack. I believe that criticism of a website is acceptable and I have yet to hear any reason for why posters should not be allowed to criticize the hdnowonline website. It looks to me like there is a double standard in that posters can promote it but that posters are not allowed to criticize it.

Hey I'm guilty of owning multiple HD DVD players. So I can watch the discs I purchased in multiple places. Granted if I want to expand my horizons beyond HD DVD -- I have to upconvert a DVD. Waiting for a $150 universal BD/HD DVD player.....

Didn't you say you have 10 DVD players and yet have problems burning a DVD that can be played in all of them? (Seriously get a new Plextor burner & Nero. Bitset Nero to always set DVD-ROM Book Type. Always finalize your burnt discs. That should get you good to go :) )

Sorry, I got out of the PC black-hole-money-pit business about 5 years ago. I still have one that boots Win98 for nostalgic reasons and a minor PC grave yard in the garage. I have a Mac-Mini and can pull up a terminal window when odd urge strikes to do a man page on AWK though.. ;)

b2b

I don't think you can get decent HTPC components for that price. What with RAM costing so much now-a-days ...

I meant for the XA1 by itself.

Besides, I'm a computer geek and I have 10k rmp raptors and 512MB and 1GB sticks of DDR just floating around my office. :D I might have to pull the liquid cooling stuff off of the current gaming rig, but I'm contemplating a new rebuild anyway and with most of the new dual cores, I don't think I'll need the overclocking anyway. ;)



Thats the good thing about the hd dvd add-on. If you have 360, it is really a nice low-cost entry ...

It was indeed very good to sample the HD DVD and decide I liked it enough. It's great enough for what it is, but I'm growing increasingly disatisfied with it as my long term solution, though. Noise of the 360 itself and the audio options are my main grumbles. 65nm with integrated HD DVD drive would solve all of those, since I am also a gamer. :) Unfortunately, I'm more than a little discouraged that I'll ever see that drive internal unless I hack it up myself (which I am considering!). I just think the XA1 quirks would irk me more than the 360 right now, though I'm would enjoy the opportunity to tinker. Plus, I've always thought the XA1 was a beauty and I would be putting the analogs to use stat and give HDDVD the AQ lead while I wait to see if this Denon 4308CI is going to be in silver or not.

Well I'm off to buy the First Blood BD.

Oops... I forgot about that. The poll here reported that 134 out of 912 (14.69%) addon owners also owned standalone players.
Right, and of course, it's probably higher than that. After all, on such a lopsided partisan site such as this, you know the poll was skewed by fanboys as much as possible to allow HD DVD to seen in the best possible light. ;) Therefore, you can assume, 14.7% is the floor with regard to the percent of people who own a standalone AND an add-on.

I guess after they own 2 or 3 HD-DVD players they will figure out that if they want to watch something different they will have to buy a PS3 or BD player... ;)
Of course...you are assuming these people are capable of such logic. I'm not yet convinced. ;)

Of course...you are assuming these people are capable of such logic. I'm not yet convinced. ;)

I remember discussing with Darin this very issue many months ago. The question was, if a console owner bought a secondary playing device, would they most likely get one of the same format, or would the get one from the competing format. On one hand, getting it in the same format would allow you to watch your disc wherever you were. On the other hand, getting it in the other format would allow you to watch a wider variety of movies.

Unfortunetly, I don't remember which position I or he took, or how it turned out.

I guess you guys are saying that the smart thing for PS3 owners to do is buy a HD DVD stand alone, so they would have access to all the movies. I mean if you are logically consistent that's what you would say.

I see may HD DVD customers buying second and even third HD DVD players as well as BD players. And BD customers buying second BD players and HD DVD players.

So the moral of the story is if your a HT enthusiasts you buy HD devices.

-Robert

120 million players is a lot to be replaced in anything less than a 5-7 year period.

how many still have and use the player they bought inj 97?

how many still have and use the player they bought inj 97?
It would be nice if you could please start attributing the quotes in your posts to the person who said them. It makes things a lot easier to follow. Thanks.

I remember discussing with Darin this very issue many months ago. The question was, if a console owner bought a secondary playing device, would they most likely get one of the same format, or would the get one from the competing format. On one hand, getting it in the same format would allow you to watch your disc wherever you were. On the other hand, getting it in the other format would allow you to watch a wider variety of movies.

Unfortunetly, I don't remember which position I or he took, or how it turned out.

I guess you guys are saying that the smart thing for PS3 owners to do is buy a HD DVD stand alone, so they would have access to all the movies. I mean if you are logically consistent that's what you would say.

That depends on if you are willing to buy a player just to watch Universal titles.. ;) Some people would think that is a poor value proposition...

b2b

That depends on if you are willing to buy a player just to watch Universal titles.. ;) Some people would think that is a poor value proposition...

b2b

Well, you won't buy a player to watch all the titles, so you would say that. But I would point out that we get the good porn and indie stuff as well.

BD has 3 that HD DVD doesn't have.

Skogan what 3 studios?

Well its because HD DVD isn't as dependent on the Xbox 360 as Blu-ray is dependent on the success of the PS3.

don't know about that, what I mean is that there is most likely 2x more add ons then stand alone players. Coulkd you imagine how badly HD DVD would be doing if the add on was not there

That depends on if you are willing to buy a player just to watch Universal titles.. ;) Some people would think that is a poor value proposition...

b2b

You also get the choice of the best version of the disk then they differ from neutral studios.

I don't see why you are so happy about that. Wii is eating more of Xbox 360's lunch than PS3's.. ;)
b2b
Considering the XBox 360 doubled it's year-ago numbers, I'd say it's the PS3's lunch being eaten, the 360's got nowhere to go but up ;)
January 16 - 22, 2006
X360 - 3,616

January 15 - 21, 2007
X360 - 7,041

[Industry Insider mr]

Great! Are those authorized dealers? Full warranty?

New? Used? Refurbs?

Can I return it in thirty days? Three days?

Oh, Ebay... :confused:
Agreed.

I don't consider ebay an option for most of my new electronics. Certainly not something with watch-sized moving parts.

That depends on if you are willing to buy a player just to watch Universal titles.. ;) Some people would think that is a poor value proposition...

b2bJust think how great it would be to watch ALL the HD content on either format. As true HD enthusiasts this is what it’s all about. I can pick and choose as pleased. ;)

Skogan what 3 studios?
I count the majors, Fox Sony and Disney for BD, and Universal for HD DVD.

For the purposes of that conversation, I didn't count Weinstien, Studio Cannel or any of the smaller studios for either side.

They are all just real grumpy right now with bad numbers for disc sales and the NPD report on player sales. You just happened to be the unlucky contestant that wandered in at bad moment.. ;)

b2b



Defending everyone who agrees with your opinion is even worse than arguing with everyone who disagrees with you. It shows a lack of discretion, nuance, tact if you will. It makes it a tad hard for those of who are reading these threads to take your posts seriously, even when you deliver interesting arguments and info.

More of a debater, a little less of my drunk uncle yelling from the cheap seats.

Considering the XBox 360 doubled it's year-ago numbers, I'd say it's the PS3's lunch being eaten, the 360's got nowhere to go but up ;)
January 16 - 22, 2006
X360 - 3,616

January 15 - 21, 2007
X360 - 7,041

On the other hand EA sounds ecstatic to help chip in with the PS3 and launch the BD format in NA

Electronic Arts VP, Frank Gibeau, has cited the publisher's disappointment with PS3 software sales (http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=157048) in a finance conference call.

Despite attaining $41 million in orders from retailers throughout the holiday quarter, EA notes that this is considerably less than the $76 million filled during the Xbox 360's respective launch, according to a report on Video Business.

As an aside, how do the Amazon numbers make any kind of sense??

HD-DVD now has the Departed at 49, then DVE at 683, then Beerfest at 1368, in that order.

Yet the HD-DVD players are really high in the DVD player rankings.

Either all those new owners are buying from Amazon and making their setup really pretty with DVE just to watch Beerfest or everyone is buying movies from another store....

So what's the other store?

On the other hand EA sounds ecstatic to help chip in with the PS3 and launch the BD format in NA

My heart bleeds for EA and their non-innovative, lowest common denominator business philosophy, but in this generation, they'll be porting from the MS box, to PS.

I remember discussing with Darin this very issue many months ago. The question was, if a console owner bought a secondary playing device, would they most likely get one of the same format, or would the get one from the competing format. On one hand, getting it in the same format would allow you to watch your disc wherever you were. On the other hand, getting it in the other format would allow you to watch a wider variety of movies.

Unfortunetly, I don't remember which position I or he took, or how it turned out.I don't remember either. I would personally first go for a player of the other format in general if there was much content I would miss out on otherwise. But I understand that there are a lot of different situations that people are in and I would think that a family that wanted the console in one room and a standalone in the other might lean heavily toward getting the same kind of player for both. Especially if they had built a library before deciding on getting another player. The amount of content that they would miss out on would be likely to play heavily in which way many of them would lean, assuming they knew that they would be missing out on content by sticking with only one format and how some idea about how much that would be.
Considering the XBox 360 doubled it's year-ago numbers, I'd say it's the PS3's lunch being eaten, the 360's got nowhere to go but up ;)
January 16 - 22, 2006
X360 - 3,616

January 15 - 21, 2007
X360 - 7,041Sorry, but I'm not following these numbers. They look too low to be total units sold to me and too high to be hundreds of thousands of units sold.

--Darin

HD-DVD now has the Departed at 49, then DVE at 683, then Beerfest at 1368,

Beerfest should only be sold on VHS (EP mode)

As an aside, how do the Amazon numbers make any kind of sense??

HD-DVD now has the Departed at 49, then DVE at 683, then Beerfest at 1368, in that order.

Yet the HD-DVD players are really high in the DVD player rankings.

Either all those new owners are buying from Amazon and making their setup really pretty with DVE just to watch Beerfest or everyone is buying movies from another store....

So what's the other store? The new owners maybe buying a little bit from each of the older released titles spreading out the sales volume among the 150 or so releases instead of concentrating them on the new releases.

Remember the entire released list is new to those that just bought a player. :)

The new owners maybe buying a little bit from each of the older released titles spreading out the sales volume among the 150 or so releases instead of concentrating them on the new releases.

Remember the entire released list is new to those that just bought a player. :)

I'd add that at $365 the A2 was a great deal at amazon.

Their disc prices aren't nearly as generous.

$365 ???

OMFG :eek:

$365 ???

OMFG :eek:


It's still pretty close to that, the XA2 has been $776 off-and-on.

Right, and of course, it's probably higher than that. After all, on such a lopsided partisan site such as this, you know the poll was skewed by fanboys as much as possible to allow HD DVD to seen in the best possible light. ;) Therefore, you can assume, 14.7% is the floor with regard to the percent of people who own a standalone AND an add-on.


Of course...you are assuming these people are capable of such logic. I'm not yet convinced. ;)
How can a poll of owners of a PARTICULAR format possibly be biased?

It never ceases to amaze me that some people will try to look for a scheme in even the most simple things. What part of the results do you object to? That there are so many HD DVD add-on owners?

I guess after they own 2 or 3 HD-DVD players they will figure out that if they want to watch something different they will have to buy a PS3 or BD player... ;)

b2b
I guess you forgot to consider the possibility that they are used in different rooms?

such a lopsided partisan site such as this...
I've seen you and some of the others here complaining bitterly on bluray.com about your inability to have your own way unopposed here on AVS. I think you are flat out wrong on this, since just as many have been "banned" from the ranks of HD supporters as BD.

However, I note that some folks are accustomed to having a much free-er rein in discussions on forum.bluray.com than here on AVS, and that you are typically very quick to have any contrary opinion silenced over there within minutes.

If that is you standard of "fair" that you would like to see on AVS, I hope you'll be waiting a VERY long time... Please stop attacking the AVS site just because it is not like the bluray.com forum. Over here, you will find that there are TWO sides in a debate, and I truly hope it remains that way.

Sorry, but I'm not following these numbers. They look too low to be total units sold to me and too high to be hundreds of thousands of units sold.

Weekly units sold in Japan.

Coulkd you imagine how badly HD DVD would be doing if the add on was not there

Better than BD without PS3.

how many still have and use the player they bought inj 97?

Wonder why everyone quotes full PS2 sales figure as the ownership ... infact most PS2 sales now are to PS2 onwers - just as most DVD player sales now are to DVD player owners.

BTW, DVD ownership just surpassed VHS ownership recently. When I checked last 80% (or 85%) of US households had a dvd player. Out of these only 30% to 35% even have a HDTV.

Wonder why everyone quotes full PS2 sales figure as the ownership ... infact most PS2 sales now are to PS2 onwers - just as most DVD player sales now are to DVD player owners.

BTW, DVD ownership just surpassed VHS ownership recently. When I checked last 80% (or 85%) of US households had a dvd player. Out of these only 30% to 35% even have a HDTV.

Actually that's more HDTV owners than I would have guessed; but I guess at this stage even the average consumer would think it's a good idea to replace what they have with HD.

Oddly enough I own an HD projector for disc-watching but my big-screen TV is a standard resolution JVC. It's 11 years old at still humming along without a hitch. I'll probably just pick up a converter when broadcast standards change, because I don't need HD to watch The Daily Show and Family Guy (which I TVO anyway).

I've seen you and some of the others here complaining bitterly on bluray.com about your inability to have your own way unopposed here on AVS. I think you are flat out wrong on this, since just as many have been "banned" from the ranks of HD supporters as BD.

However, I note that some folks are accustomed to having a much free-er rein in discussions on forum.bluray.com than here on AVS, and that you are typically very quick to have any contrary opinion silenced over there within minutes.

I do see that people avoid broader political extrapolations here (which is good), but apart from being an AV geek, I'm an avid political junkie, & potential parallels between what goes down in political partisanship and what goes down in this microcosm haunt my poor little mind non-stop.

I actually see more BR support here than in my general movie forums, where Hi-Def support itself is minimal. Most of their bias seems due to a general distaste with Sony politics, and how they have handled their video branch in general.