Documentation of that?

There is certainly documentation of MS giving laptops with HD-DVD drives to certain bloggers.

Nobody beats MS for astroturfing. :rolleyes:

Here you go.

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/13/sony-owns-up-to-deceptive-marketing-blog/

That was for PSP. Surely they wouldn't do the same thing for PS3? Just because there's so much more at stake with PS3 than PSP is no reason to be suspicious.

I have a PS3. I have a 360. The PS3 is far, far better with compatibility than the 360. Several HUGE XBOX titles like "Mechassault" will *not* play in my 360.

I skipped the PS2. I now have 6 PS2 games and they all play just fine in my PS3. There is an emotion engine chip (a PS2) inside the PS3. The majority of PS3 games are compatible, a *minority* of XBOX games are compatible on the 360. I've even read articles where the 360 folks were debating why it was even wanted an even an issue. Some of us don't like hooking up multiple units to a TV (cabling, wiring, inputs, etc). I'd love to finish "Panzer Dragoon Orta". I want to play "MechAssault 2" on XBOX Live. I enjoy the original "DOAX" more than the sequel. Microsoft doesn't seem to consider it important.

You're lucky, you don't live in the EU. You not only got the deluxe model PS3 with the actual PS2 EE chip, but you also got it at a much lower cost than Sony's EU customers will be paying.

I was in no way belittling the X360 team's accomplishments (it was pretty obvious I was exaggerating, I hope), but out of the large catalogue that the Xbox had only 296 are compatible with the X360, it isn't great, though for the Sony solution I will wait for official numbers, thought they have said the latest titles will work, and pretty much all of the PS1 titles will work (great news for us FF7 fans!). Also it was not cool forcing Halo 2 gamers to buy an X360 if they wanted new Live! content, I hope Sony don't take that route with a seminal title like God of War 2.

The X360 solution looks less elegant than the Sony solution (dependant on actual numbers), you also have to take into account that games like Halo 2 will obviously be harder to run on the X360 under software emulation as the Xbox was pretty decent under the hood, especially in comparison to the PS2. I don't know how easy it is to run RISC on a PPC core (I have heard it is not too bad as RISC is incorporated into Freescale's Power Architecture which is a variant of what the Cell runs, is it not), but they seem to have done it pretty early so they may have been working on this for a lot longer than the PS3 has been out. They have said that the RSX will also be doing a lot of the heavy lifting in addition to the Cell, and the VPU/FPU in the EE sounds pretty similar to the Cell. I would have thought that the massively parallel nature of the Cell will help in this case, as you have 7 SPE cores to play around with, while not as customised as the three co-processors on the EE, there are more of them to pick up the slack.

I think to get as far as they have the X360 emulation team have done very well, but I do wish they had taken a similar view to Sony, use legacy hardware and get the software emulation working in one move rather than drip-feed us titles every 3 months. I still play Halo (I prefer it to Halo 2, better gameplay and all that) now and it was nice that they had that working as soon as I bought my X360, but Halo is a huge game so they have to get it working as soon as possible, the Sony route enables them to cater for niche games (like the Barbie Horse Adventures of the world) as well as the big ones, which is why I prefer it.

Are you dissapointed that Sony has switched to the drip-feed approach and has eliminated the legacy hardware? After making the EU wait to be last for launch and pay the highest price for PS3s, they also get the stripped down model that comes with drip-feed.

PS2 game support to be "limited"
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=23003

"Rather than concentrate on PS2 backwards compatibility, in the future, company resources will be increasingly focused on developing new games and entertainment features exclusively for PS3," said David Reeves, president of SCEE.

Sony will publish a backwards compatibility list on the PS3's launch day, March 23, with additional titles becoming compatible through downloads via the PlayStation Network.

"The backwards compatibility is not going to be as good as in the US and Japanese models," a Sony spokesperson told Reuters.

drip....drip........drip....................drip............ ......................drip.................................. .........

Why would I quote a rank racist ?
Yeah! That's my job!


"THIS... is our finest hour."

You're lucky, you don't live in the EU. You not only got the deluxe model PS3 with the actual PS2 EE chip, but you also got it at a much lower cost than Sony's EU customers will be paying.Is this "compatibility of game titles" relevant to HD DVD/BD situation? If it is, how much will "ring of death (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56-gQq62Hyc)" of Xbox360 console cost to its customers?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56-gQq62Hyc

If it affects PS3 sales its kinda relevant here.

Is this "compatibility of game titles" relevant to HD DVD/BD situation? If it is, how much will "ring of death (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56-gQq62Hyc)" of Xbox360 console cost to its customers?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56-gQq62Hyc

Well the PS3 is the low cost BD player and dwarfs the sales numbers of all other BD players combined. As such, impact to PS3 sales is relevant to the format war. Sony is also counting on a certain percentage of PS3 gamers to turn into BD movie buyers as well.

"Eight percent of people who buy a PS3 also buy Blu-ray movies to go with it" - Randy Waynick, senior vice president of the home products division of Sony Electronics

If it affects PS3 sales its kinda relevant here.

That's a slippery slope. If discussion on everything that affects console sales is allowed then we'll end up talking about piñatas and whatnot. :)

As long as Sony and the BDA talkabout the PS3 as a Blu-ray player, its relevant in this thread. I think its been reasonable so far only triggered by major announcements and then it dies down.

Its not like the daily navel gazing on the Amazon, Nielson Videoscan monster thread you created. ;)

That's a slippery slope. If discussion on everything that affects console sales is allowed then we'll end up talking about piñatas and whatnot. :)

I agree, and I don't really want to focus the discussion on games. Sony, however, came up with the trojan horse strategy and the concept of converting PS3 gamers into BD movie buyers. So it doesn't make sense to me to avoid a subject like a hardware change/cost reduction to the dominant BD player in the market. Especially when that change is likely to negatively impact the EU launch of this player.

I have to say, I can't ever recall a company that had the reverse midas touch to the extent of these folks. Just when you think they've stopped shooting themselves in the foot, they go and do it again.

While I agree that Sony keeps shooting themselves in the foot (with fairly large caliber weapons even), as you say in your post: "converting PS3 gamers into BD movie buyers" is their "secret" plan. In the big picture, I don't think this will be a major issue in the Euro launch. Most people will get the PS3 for the PS3 games and/or Blu-ray playback, not the ability to play PS2 games. While there are some very vocal souls here and on the net, for most people looking forward to PS3 gaming, it is not enough to skip it. Many won't even know...

While I agree that Sony keeps shooting themselves in the foot (with fairly large caliber weapons even), as you say in your post: "converting PS3 gamers into BD movie buyers" is their "secret" plan. In the big picture, I don't think this will be a major issue in the Euro launch. Most people will get the PS3 for the PS3 games and/or Blu-ray playback, not the ability to play PS2 games. While there are some very vocal souls here and on the net, for most people looking forward to PS3 gaming, it is not enough to skip it. Many won't even know...


I wonder why there isn't more outcry about it though. I guess it's become well established that CE companies can subsidize products off the backs of Europeans, and the Europeans will just accept it as their lot in life. It's not just Sony, but in this example it's pretty blatant.

Sony is giving you a product several months later, for several dollars more, that is objectively not as good. And instead of indignation from the Europeans, I hear mostly apologies and excuses for it. It's just odd that I don't see more resistance to this practice. Although to be fair, I did see some articles in the British press that were pretty harsh.

I think it will be more in the press as closer to the release, the press is more tactical then you can dream of.

Those of us who really care, bought our PS3's from the US already. :)

We always get the short end of the stick, but usually it is mostly pricing. We'll see if this "simplified" model makes it to the states before a major overhaul is due. (Like a 65nm shrink etc.)

It's only fair payback because the Europeans and Japanese get all the cool cars we don't get in the US. Ford and Honda especially never send their best stuff to North America, especially on the lower end (I'm thinking Civic and Focus).

More seriously, though does anyone have the planned Euro launch numbers handy? It shouldn't be forgotten that a major firmware revision is reputed to happen BEFORE the Euro launch. If they're ditching the EE+GS, the firware update will almost certainly include some level of software emulation.

Euro launch definitely has better game availability (by some 30 titles), a far better Blu-ray library, and a much better bundled bonus movie.

and a much better bundled bonus movie.


Here I have to agree. I wonder if that was some form of cultural commentary by Sony - they think Europeans should get Casino Royal, while Americans get Talladega Nights....

Just what are they trying to say :)

Here I have to agree. I wonder if that was some form of cultural commentary by Sony - they think Europeans should get Casino Royal, while Americans get Talladega Nights....

Just what are they trying to say :)Other than Casino Royale is the longest Sony Advert I've ever seen? At least Talladega Nights pretended it was a real movie ;)

I wonder why there isn't more outcry about it though. I guess it's become well established that CE companies can subsidize products off the backs of Europeans, and the Europeans will just accept it as their lot in life. It's not just Sony, but in this example it's pretty blatant.

Compare US prices of projectors and the Japanese prices ....

Not to mention prices of clothes in say India and the same ones imported and sold here.

So you know, MS have tried the same thing with the X360 backwards compatibility, but it turned out to be a really half-assed attempt and they only bothered with Halo and a few others, and it was a really long procedure, you have to put the game in, then go onto Live, download the emulator, eject the disc and put it in again to play. The difference in the Sony method is that they have created a whole environment for the PS/PS2 games to run in, much like you can create a Windows environment on Linux using WINE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WINE). The whole environment can be tweaked to improve the performance as a whole rather than going game-by-game, which could be very useful as they would be able to add something like 720p support to PS2 games in one fell-swoop instead of just doing a few titles at a time.
Your experience with backwards compatibility on the 360 is nowhere close to what mine has been. The lengthy process you describe is not what happens on my system. Here's the basic breakdown*:

1. I power on the console. It automatically connects to XBL on startup.
2. I pop in an XBOX game (we'll say Doom 3.)
3. As the game loads, a window pops up saying I need to download new software to play this game - do I want to download now. I say yes.
4. The software downloads (typically takes less than a minute) and the game restarts on its own.
5. I play the game.

Note that the "long procedure" only has to be performed once per game. Ejection of the game disc is not necessary, IIRC.


*It's been a while since I've had to install emulator software, so the exact process may be slightly different. Attribute these differences to my fuzzy memory.

Its not like the daily navel gazing on the Amazon, Nielson Videoscan monster thread you created. ;)

Well, you guys brought it up using Amazon as the end all be all of sales when it was going for HD DVD last fall...

Well, you guys brought it up using Amazon as the end all be all of sales when it was going for HD DVD last fall... Not really.

It was used by most to estimate the relative sales relationship of the standalone players during the course of last year, and the relative interest in the formats.

Its still significant. HD DVD backers mostly now say it still significant in the long term, but the short term lead of Blu-ray may not be sustained.

Thats a heck of a lot less hypocritical than saying its insignificant until the first day Blu-ray takes the lead and then its so conclusive it means the format war is over. :p

I'll still say its significant when/if HD DVD takes the lead again in the tracking.

Betcha if that happens some Blu-ray fans will suddenly discover its faults again. :rolleyes:

The 37th Meeting of the DVD Forum Steering Committee has just been held. Resolutions approved:


1. Version-up Information for DVD Specifications for High Definition Video (HD DVD-Video), Version 1.0 to 1.1

2. DVD Specifications for Recordable Disc for General (DVD-R for General) Part 2 File System Specifications:
Optional Specifications:
DVD Download Disc for CSS Managed Recording, Revision 1.0 Approved

3. International Standardization of
- DVD-R for Dual Layer Part 1 Physical Specifications, and
- DVD-RW for Dual Layer Part 1 Physical Specifications
through ECMA

4. DVD Specifications for High Density Recordable Disc (HD DVD-R) Part 1 Physical Specifications:
Optional Specifications:
2x-speed HD DVD-R, Revision 2.0 Approved

5. DVD Specifications for High Density Re-recordable Disc (HD DVD-RW) Part 1 Physical Specifications:
Optional Specifications:
2x-speed HD DVD-RW, Revision 2.0 Approved

6. PCC Regional Event Plan (FY 2007)
1. Asia Region: Two conferences (Taiwan/Mainland-China), One half-day seminar (Taiwan)
2. Europe Region: One conference, One seminar
3. Japan Region: One conference, One half-day seminar
4. North America Region: One conference Approved

7. HD DVD-RW Disc Test Specification [for SL & DL] Version 1.0 Approved

8. Time Limited DVD Logo Approved

9. Conditional Approval to proceed with licensing of the DVD Specifications for China High Density Read-Only Disc (C-HD DVD-ROM) Physical Specifications, Version 10.0 (or China Only), subject to formation of appropriate licensing entities and execution of agreements and actions in conformance with the Memorandum of Understanding Approved

10. DVD Specifications for China High Density Read-Only Disc (C-HD DVD-ROM) Physical Specifications, Version 10.0 (or China Only) Approved

11. FY2007 Proposed Budget

12. Extension of the duration of the DVD Forum for another ten years to commence from August 7, 2007.


http://www.dvdforum.org/37scmtg-resolution.htm

I agree, and I don't really want to focus the discussion on games. Sony, however, came up with the trojan horse strategy and the concept of converting PS3 gamers into BD movie buyers. So it doesn't make sense to me to avoid a subject like a hardware change/cost reduction to the dominant BD player in the market. Especially when that change is likely to negatively impact the EU launch of this player.


It won't affect the launch at all. There won't be enough units into the launch to meet demand.

It's not clear if it will have any impact on sales. People with PS/2 games have a PS/2. And until it is tested, who knows the compatibility factor of the software emulation?

Are people really going to give the PS/3 a pass because it won't play a particular PS/2 game? They had no problem spending $850 until the emulation situation occured?

With fewer than 14K HD DVD discs sold in the UK, the PS/3 should push BD movies into the lead on launch day.

How does HD DVD respond to that?

Is there a strategy to sell HD DVD beyond hoping BD fails?

Gary

It's not clear if it will have any impact on sales. People with PS/2 games have a PS/2. And until it is tested, who knows the compatibility factor of the software emulation?

Are people really going to give the PS/3 a pass because it won't play a particular PS/2 game? They had no problem spending $850 until the emulation situation occured?
some may. i was able to get a 360 at launch because i could still sell my xbox for about $130. of course the ps2 trade-in value relative to the ps3 cost is much smaller, but it could be a factor.

So is the DVD Forum going to take up the triple-layer proposals for HD-DVD soon?

Sony has already lost, if it depends on PS3 sales to make Blu-ray stick.

The $599 standalone player, "promised" for June, has much greater significance.

As in all future promises, let's wait and see.

Nice to see some really good discussion here.

HD DVD player sales will continue to get stronger as these prices drop. The initial surge of PS3 players represents a lead that will be eroded by HD DVD standalone player sales as time goes on, and HD DVD prices continue to drop.

Bluray is counting too much on the PS3 to win this, IMO. The HD DVD player options are not only much cheaper than the BD options, but they are "feature packed" for that money also.

Yes, Sony have announced that there will be some cheaper BD players down the road - but I'll bet a good lunch that these "stripped down" players won't have the advanced audio codecs, or networking, etc - since the BD spec doesn't require them...

Had this posted in the news thread, but I think it was deleted.

PS3 - 4 Million Shipped, 1.88 Million Sold (http://www.vgcharts.org/news/news.php?id=111)

Not sure how reputable the source is, but I know you guys like to argue numbers :)

Segmentation of "stripped down" players without the codecs, etc and high end players with the codecs seems like where we're headed anyway, particularly with the proliferation of HDMI 1.3. Low end players that will just pass by bitstream to receivers that will have the new decoders built into them. Then you'll have ultra high end that will have options for both and the most tweakability/configuration between the player and the AVR.

Noticed this on DTS' page the other night:

http://dts.com/dts-hd/dtshd-master-audio-with-new-receiver.php

You can enjoy DTS-HD Master audio by upgrading to a Blu-ray Disc or HD-DVD player with DTS-HD Advanced Digital Out and new AV Receiver with DTS-HD Master Audio decoding. Simply connect the player and receiver with an HDMI cable. The DTS-HD bit stream will pass through the player and HDMI cable to be decoded by the AV receiver. Both player and AV receiver will need to be equipped with new HDMI Version 1.3* outputs and inputs. This way you can enjoy DTS-HD Master Audio at up to 7.1 channels at 96 k/24 bit sound that is bit-for-bit identical to the studio master.


Anyone else ever hear about this "Advanced Digital Out" btw... but I'll expect to see "Advanced Digital In" on the new high end receivers from here on out.

And of course, for those of us with HDMI 1.1/1.2:

http://dts.com/dts-hd/dtshd-master-audio-with-existing-receiver.php



High Definition Player with DTS-HD Decoder to Current AV Receiver

You can enjoy DTS-HD Master Audio and DTS-HD High Resolution Audio if you have a new Blu-ray Disc or HD-DVD player with a DTS-HD Audio decoder built into the player. The audio will be decoded inside the player and passed to the receiver in two different ways.

HDMI 1.1 or 1.2 Connection

In this scenario, the high definition player would output the audio as an uncompressed 6 to 8 channel linear PCM digital audio stream. You will need a player with a built-in DTS-HD Decoder, and both player and AV Receiver need to include HDMI version 1.1 or 1.2* outputs/inputs. HDMI stands for High Definition Multimedia Interface, and is a single-cable connection designed to accommodate digital multi channel audio and video. Simply connect the HDMI cable from the output of the player to the HDMI input of the AV Receiver. The DTS decoder inside the AV Receiver will "ignore" the Linear PCM stream and pass the audio stream on to your receiver's digital-to-analog converters and then on to the 5.1 or 7.1 amplifier. This way you can enjoy DTS-HD Master Audio that is a bit-for-bit identical to the studio master.



6 to 8 Channel Analog Connection

In this scenario, the high definition player will output DTS-HD Audio through the analog outputs of the player to your AV Receiver. The DTS-HD Master Audio or DTS-HD High Resolution will be decoded by the player and sent out as analog audio signals to the AV Receiver. You would Simply connect 6, 7, or 8 RCA cables from the analog outputs of the player to the analog inputs on your AV Receiver. The number of analog cables will be determined by the number of analog output/inputs on the player and receiver. The analog signals will go directly to the receiver's amplifier section. In this way you can enjoy DTS-HD Master Audio that is bit-for-bit identical to the studio master.

Dolby has similar info on their site. This latest is the current situation for the 1G (and 2G) players ($500-$1500) and HDMI switching receivers (mostly high end). We're at a transitional/early adopter stage right now, but I expect to see the new decoders (probably not lossless though DD+, DTS-HD (not MA) in most even low/mid-fi HDMI AVR before the end of 2008.

Its still significant. HD DVD backers mostly now say it still significant in the long term, but the short term lead of Blu-ray may not be sustained.

well after more then two months of a BD lead, with the lead increasing maybe they should be more realistic

Thats a heck of a lot less hypocritical than saying its insignificant until the first day Blu-ray takes the lead and then its so conclusive it means the format war is over

it was not hypocriotcal, it was

1) the realization that a lot of BD oplayers would sell soon that would dwarf all the other player that were ever sold combined

2) that if we assume most of the calcs are right HD DVD is now selling around 20-30k movies a week. Back then only conservatively 1/4 of the HD DVD players were sold compared to today (in Jan HD DVD prg said 175k, Toshiba said 60k players, there is a 3:1 there already, and the 60k included some players sold after Sep/Oct and I hope some more players sold this year). Unless one believes HD DVD supporters are leaving in droves like rats off a sinking ship. one would need to agree that the number of disks must have been a lot smaller. what could they be? 10k? less? much less? don't you think it would be stupid to be happy for HD DVD selling 10k movies when BD only sold 3k especially knowing #1.

N

Thats a heck of a lot less hypocritical than saying its insignificant until the first day Blu-ray takes the lead and then its so conclusive it means the format war is over. :p




Not quite what I remember. Many BluRay proponents often said the comparison did net mean much until the PS3 was launched and Fox/Disney started releasing movies. Then if BD sales stayed low, BD lost.

The response was always a snarky, "there's Blurry, always looking to the future, while HD-DVD has blah blah blah."

So the PS3 comes out, FOX and Disney release movies (BD50 becomes more common than expected and even Sony is looking to advanced codecs), and now that indeed BluRay sales have soared, we are treated to this;

well wait until the low priced HD-DVD players come out!
well wait until we have HDTL
well wait until the PS3 tanks here, there everywhere and suddenly all owners stop buying movies.


why can't we instead just look at the numbers for what they are...trends.

Last year when asked about BluRay versus HD-DVD one BD insider (can't for the life of me remember who) said HD-DVD is what it is andn BluRay would launch and act according to it's own market.


These devices are responding to their own markets. When the PS3 was launched sales of BD discs took off. At the same time HD-DVD discs did not fall off a cliff - they have maintained. If cheap HD-DVD players increase HD-DVD sales it does not have to be at the expense of BluRay sales. It is possible for both to grow.

At this point it appears that the PS3 has given BluRay a firm enough footing to last awhile, even if Sony loses this chapter in the console war. Future trends will show us if Toshiba and the Addon can establish a strong enough foothold for HD-DVD to last as well.

Well said! It really is that simple...

Blu-ray has lost because SOny is blocking distribution of p0rn. HD-DVD has it. Watch that grow the number of players sold in the next 6 months. No, I have not seen any of the content yet.

Blu-ray has lost because SOny is blocking distribution of p0rn. HD-DVD has it. Watch that grow the number of players sold in the next 6 months. No, I have not seen any of the content yet.


You're kidding, right? :rolleyes:
Have you been away the internet for the past 2 months? :confused:

For the umpteenth time, Sony isn't blocking any content, the US based replicators are (the ones that make studio discs), and there are replicators outside the US that will press the titles. Vivid is coming out with one here (Debbie) and there's plenty of BD porn in Japan.

Two: some adult studios revenues have plunged, and stats show their income is only about 40% from mainstream DVD. Any HD format will be minuscule on their income. This isn't the 80's where folks couldn't do a Google search and be buried under an avalanche of free adult content. Just ask Playboy Magazine.

You're kidding, right? :rolleyes:
Have you been away the internet for the past 2 months? :confused:

For the umpteenth time, Sony isn't blocking any content, the US based replicators are (the ones that make studio discs), and there are replicators outside the US that will press the titles. Vivid is coming out with one here (Debbie) and there's plenty of BD porn in Japan.

Two: some adult studios revenues have plunged, and stats show their income is only about 40% from mainstream DVD. Any HD format will be minuscule on their income. This isn't the 80's where folks couldn't do a Google search and be buried under an avalanche of free adult content. Just ask Playboy Magazine.

...not to mention that, exactly how much adult entertainment has been/is filmed in 1080i/p or high res film and would benefit from being released in HD-DVD or Blu-ray?

Nothing to see here....move along... move along... :cool:

...not to mention that, exactly how much adult entertainment has been/is filmed in 1080i/p or high res film and would benefit from being released in HD-DVD or Blu-ray?

Apparently most movies shot in the past couple of years from major companies. It came in one of the news reports about adult majors complaining about not being able to release on BD ...

Apparently most movies shot in the past couple of years from major companies. It came in one of the news reports about adult majors complaining about not being able to release on BD ...
Though not near what it was back in the Beta days, I think porn still has some significance for HD optical and is a bit of a problem for Blu-ray.

What I've heard (HD Net World News) from one of the major porn studios is that there are like 7 or 8 replicators at present and Disney uses most of them and has told them that they would not do their replicating business with them if they also did porn.

You wanna' make some money? Start a replicating company that serves only porn. ;)

Not quite what I remember. Many BluRay proponents often said the comparison did net mean much until the PS3 was launched and Fox/Disney started releasing movies. Then if BD sales stayed low, BD lost.

The response was always a snarky, "there's Blurry, always looking to the future, while HD-DVD has blah blah blah."

So the PS3 comes out, FOX and Disney release movies (BD50 becomes more common than expected and even Sony is looking to advanced codecs), and now that indeed BluRay sales have soared, we are treated to this;

well wait until the low priced HD-DVD players come out!
well wait until we have HDTL
well wait until the PS3 tanks here, there everywhere and suddenly all owners stop buying movies.


why can't we instead just look at the numbers for what they are...trends.

Last year when asked about BluRay versus HD-DVD one BD insider (can't for the life of me remember who) said HD-DVD is what it is andn BluRay would launch and act according to it's own market.


These devices are responding to their own markets. When the PS3 was launched sales of BD discs took off. At the same time HD-DVD discs did not fall off a cliff - they have maintained. If cheap HD-DVD players increase HD-DVD sales it does not have to be at the expense of BluRay sales. It is possible for both to grow.

At this point it appears that the PS3 has given BluRay a firm enough footing to last awhile, even if Sony loses this chapter in the console war. Future trends will show us if Toshiba and the Addon can establish a strong enough foothold for HD-DVD to last as well.

Good summary, except it's worth noting that while Blu-ray has "soared" on the strength of the PS3, the numbers for PS3 and Blu-ray are significantly lower than what Sony projected in winning it's major studio support.

When Hollywood studios made the decision to commit to Blu-ray either as neutral or exclusive, the PS3 was not only slated to come out much earlier in the year (in both US & Europe) but also to seed much higher numbers of Blu-ray players into the system, 6 million+ by now as I recall. At this point hd-dvd would be completely dead given projections.

As it is both high def formats are still considered very "niche" in size. So the question is does Hollywood view PS3 performance as "good enough" even though way below projections or are they keeping their options open?

In that respect it's up to hd-dvd to show whether or not it is a real viable alternative with as good or better an upside or perhaps just an even weaker niche prospect.

Good summary, except it's worth noting that while Blu-ray has "soared" on the strength of the PS3, the numbers for PS3 and Blu-ray are significantly lower than what Sony projected in winning it's major studio support.

When Hollywood studios made the decision to commit to Blu-ray either as neutral or exclusive, the PS3 was not only slated to come out much earlier in the year (in both US & Europe) but also to seed much higher numbers of Blu-ray players into the system, 6 million+ by now as I recall. At this point hd-dvd would be completely dead given projections.

As it is both high def formats are still considered very "niche" in size. So the question is does Hollywood view PS3 performance as "good enough" even though way below projections or are they keeping their options open?

In that respect it's up to hd-dvd to show whether or not it is a real viable alternative with as good or better an upside or perhaps just an even weaker niche prospect.

The way I figure it, there are 5x as many 'Blu Ray Players' in the market as there are HD-DVD players. If Blu-Ray was unable to catch up based on such a significant ratio of hardware, then things would be bleak for the BDA indeed.

Of course, I find it interesting that requiring 5x the amount of players to match/exceed HD-DVD disc sales is seen as 'good news'. :confused:

The giant portion of those 5x amount of players have other uses (notably gaming), as many anti-BD'ers are fond of pointing out.

The giant portion of those 5x amount of players have other uses (notably gaming), as many anti-BD'ers are fond of pointing out.

But Sony says 80% are used for movies ... sooo ...

Besides, there aren't any games to play ... :p

But Sony says 80% are used for movies ... sooo ...

Besides, there aren't any games to play ... :p

Sony has said they did a survey that showed 80% of people were INTERESTED in using it for movies.

I think the current quote going around from Sony says the usage at the time of the quote was 8%.

Gary

Does anyone know what the current status of HD DVD-RW is?

I notice they have approved the 2x spec, but so far nothing has been announced that will support even 1x HD DVD-RW.

Gary

Sony has said they did a survey that showed 80% of people were INTERESTED in using it for movies.

I think the current quote going around from Sony says the usage at the time of the quote was 8%.

Gary

I saw the quote twice, at 8% and 80% ... it's all spin imo.

But Sony says 80% are used for movies ... sooo ...

Besides, there aren't any games to play ... :p

There aren't? I'm getting at least 2 free demos a month, bought 5 games (playing online for free, btw), and still playing some of my PS2 games. Finished up Bully. Motorstorm, Armored Core IV, and God of War 2 will be tiding me over, though.

I'm about all played out on Gears of War, however, and my 360 has been collecting dust when I'm not using it as a HDDVD player (which given the lack of new releases since December has just been plain gathering dust). ;) I do have 4 more on my list of already released discs (17 still on my BD list ), though, so maybe time to blow some dust off.

Sony has said they did a survey that showed 80% of people were INTERESTED in using it for movies.

I think the current quote going around from Sony says the usage at the time of the quote was 8%.

Gary

To my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong), the PS3 survey on setup of the device asks if you plan to use the PS3 to watch Blu-Ray movies. According to Sony, 80% of people answer yes to the question.

As far as what is currently happening, Sony has said the following.

"Eight percent of people who buy a PS3 also buy Blu-ray movies to go with it" - Randy Waynick, senior vice president of the home products division of Sony Electronics

All of that is interesting, but it's disc sales that really matter in the end. Blu-Ray continues to hold the lead in disc sales it took around the beginning of the year. So we watch and wait to see if BD can increase it's sales against HD-DVD, or if it stays in the current sales pattern (ahead of HD-DVD, but moving in concert with it), or falls back below HD-DVD.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Looking at this chart, it still spells universal players to me.

Some interesting Sony tidbits:

PS3 updates with firmware upgrade and most expensive download to date (http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/03/01/sony_ps3_firmwareupgrade_tekken5/)

Sony today will add Tekken 5: Dark Resurrection to the Playstation Store with a price of $20. Users also can now download a new, minimal firmware update.

The $20 price tag makes it the most expensive digital download across all next-gen platforms. Most games on the PS3, Wii, and Xbox 360 range from $5 - $10.

…It's unknown exactly how big the PS3 download will be, but given the fact that PSP discs can hold nearly 2 GB, and the game has been upgraded to 1080p resolution, there's no question this will be the biggest download offered so far on the PS3…
Hopefully, Sony will be able to work out any bugs with downloading large files quickly. Large highdef video downloads can’t be too far behind. Will you be able to do that with a standalone HD player?

I have not yet updated my firmware to 1.54. Does anyone know if the latest PS3 firmware has background downloading? It or the next update sure better if any file is going to be over 2 gigs. It would also if we could backup the file onto a USB drive.

Euro PS3 runs 1000 PS2 games, shuts up critics? (http://www.itwire.com.au/content/view/10080/532/)

Of course, 1000 games certainly is a reduced compatibility, but at least we now know the number, and can expect ‘big titles’ to work on the PS3. We also seem to have a commitment from Sony that firmware updates will ensure that more titles work.
Looks like Sony has been quite busy getting the new PS3 firmware ready for the March 23rd launch. Hopefully, the firmware will include playback and scaling support for those people with 720p/1080i sets.

As the first generation of standalone HD players get replaced by the second and later generations, I doubt we'll see firmware updates coming for the earlier players due to the small numbers sold. It's nice to know that my PS3's firmware will be kept up-to-date.

Also, with the removal of the PS2 chipset coupled with the 65nm PS3 chipset they are working on, Sony could now respond to any Xbox 360 price cuts this coming Christmas.

Sony has said they did a survey that showed 80% of people were INTERESTED in using it for movies.Gary
Yep.

Again people, the ever elusive rental effect... ;)

To my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong), the PS3 survey on setup of the device asks if you plan to use the PS3 to watch Blu-Ray movies. According to Sony, 80% of people answer yes to the question.

As far as what is currently happening, Sony has said the following.

"Eight percent of people who buy a PS3 also buy Blu-ray movies to go with it" - Randy Waynick, senior vice president of the home products division of Sony Electronics



Thank you, and this is why it is relatively useless to parse every word that comes out of insiders mouths.

80% intend to use it.
8% who bought the PS3 also bought movies to go with it, probably at the same time.


So neither percentage tells us at all how many PS3's are being used for movies.


If it was 80% then the attachment rate for PS3 movie buyers would be terrible.
If it was 8% then the attachment rate would be insanely high, but it would have been a complete wast to put it in the PS3 (which does remain to be seen).


If we look at the number of standalone players sold, the number of PS3's sold, and the number of discs sold, we could probably come up with a reasonable formula for what the average attach rate per PS3 is, and I'm betting it hovers right around 25% that of a standalone.


But in the end, 2Channel is correct, it is all about how many discs are sold. That is what moves studios to release more movies, to go neutral, or turn off the tap. They don't care if you are playing them on a PS3 or using them for skeet shooting.

At least eighty percent of the first 625,000 PS3 purchasers in North America bought a Blu-ray movie to go with it. They just didn't have a choice, since it was included ("Talladega Nights") in the purchase. ;)

--Darin

Future trends will show us if Toshiba and the Addon can establish a strong enough foothold for HD-DVD to last as well.Which ignores the question of what happens when Universal goes neutral.

So the question is does Hollywood view PS3 performance as "good enough" even though way below projections or are they keeping their options open?I'm confident that Fox and Disney remain fully and exclusively committed to Blu-ray. Future events will bear this out.

Samsung has a new laptop that has a HD DVD burner in it.

http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2007/03/samsung_m55_lap.html

I wonder how long it will be before we hear an official universal player announcement from them. (Again, but this time for real).

Samsung has a new laptop that has a HD DVD burner in it.

http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2007/03/samsung_m55_lap.html

I wonder how long it will be before we hear an official universal player announcement from them. (Again, but this time for real).

That burner comes from TSST, which is a joint Toshiba Samsung venture, so HD DVD drives are produced there. So it comes as no surprise that Samsung Computers decided to include HD DVD drives on their laptops as they get the drives for little to no cost anyway.

In a similar turn of events, NEC, HD DVD PRG board member have a joint optical drive unit with Sony called Sony NEC Optiarc, which, you guessed it, produces HD DVD drives and BD drives. You could say that Sony will go neutral because of this, but as you know it is very unlikely.

Which ignores the question of what happens when Universal goes neutral.

Talkstr8t, I was about to ask you if you knew something about Universal and Blu-ray that we didn't, but I see that you've already answered this question today in the Insider's thread (reposted here for clarity of discussion):

Speaking for the former (BD/Uni), I'm aware of no formal discussions.

SCD

That burner comes from TSST, which is a joint Toshiba Samsung venture, so HD DVD drives are produced there. So it comes as no surprise that Samsung Computers decided to include HD DVD drives on their laptops as they get the drives for little to no cost anyway.

In a similar turn of events, NEC, HD DVD PRG board member have a joint optical drive unit with Sony called Sony NEC Optiarc, which, you guessed it, produces HD DVD drives and BD drives. You could say that Sony will go neutral because of this, but as you know it is very unlikely.

That isn't a comparable analogy. If TSST had only sold the drive, but Samsung didn't put them in their computers, that would be the same as the Sony NEC joint venture.

If Sony Viao's had HD DVD drives, or Toshiba players had BD drives, that would be the equivalent of Sansung putting an HD DVD drive in their players.


But the rumors of Samsung's universal players far predate this news release.

That isn't a comparable analogy. If TSST had only sold the drive, but Samsung didn't put them in their computers, that would be the same as the Sony NEC joint venture.

If Sony Viao's had HD DVD drives, or Toshiba players had BD drives, that would be the equivalent of Sansung putting an HD DVD drive in their players.


But the rumors of Samsung's universal players far predate this news release.

Yes, the difference between the cases is the fact that Sony do not put HD DVD drives in Vaio laptops, but you must also remember that a) Sony are a very staunch BD company, and b) Vaio laptops have a much higher sales volume than Samsung laptops, so this could be a way of separating themselves from the competition, to increase sales.

Samsung (now) are one of the companies that are advocating single format goodness, along with Fox/Disney/Lionsgate/SPE, and the rest of the CE manufacturers other than LG.

Also the CE division is completely separate from the computer division, they have a certain amount of autonomy, so unlike Sony where the bigwigs have said BD is the way forwards and all divisions must follow that, Samsung is set up in a way that each department can pretty much do what they want.

For context, recall that in Sept. 2005 the head of Samsungs CE division said:

"....[we] welcome a unified standard, but if this doesn't come, which looks likely, we'll bring a unified solution to market."


http://www.engadget.com/2005/09/06/samsung-planning-dual-format-hd-dvd-blu-ray-disc-player/

And there have been other hints that Sammy would bring out universal players and drives. My opinion is that it's just a matter of when.

For context, recall that in Sept. 2005 the head of Samsungs CE division said:

"....[we] welcome a unified standard, but if this doesn't come, which looks likely, we'll bring a unified solution to market."


http://www.engadget.com/2005/09/06/samsung-planning-dual-format-hd-dvd-blu-ray-disc-player/

And there have been other hints that Sammy would bring out universal players and drives. My opinion is that it's just a matter of when.

You should also remember he said that while Toshiba and the BDA were in format unification talks. It goes to show that they only want one format, and atm it is BD.

You should also remember he said that while Toshiba and the BDA were in format unification talks. It goes to show that they only want one format, and atm it is BD.


I think it goes to show that they will build a universal player if there are two formats.

And there are two formats.


So they will be building a universal player.

To my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong), the PS3 survey on setup of the device asks if you plan to use the PS3 to watch Blu-Ray movies. According to Sony, 80% of people answer yes to the question.


I don't remember ( :o ) but that seems reasonable. It would be more reliable than some survey of people who haven't bought a thing, you would think.


As far as what is currently happening, Sony has said the following.

"Eight percent of people who buy a PS3 also buy Blu-ray movies to go with it" - Randy Waynick, senior vice president of the home products division of Sony Electronics


Isn't that saying that along with the purchase of the PS/3, 8% also buy a BD movie? That is, this is a statement of the BD movie tie rate with the PS/3?

An attach rate after only three months doesn't have much of a meaning.

Gary

I don't remember ( :o ) but that seems reasonable. It would be more reliable than some survey of people who haven't bought a thing, you would think.



Isn't that saying that along with the purchase of the PS/3, 8% also buy a BD movie? That is, this is a statement of the BD movie tie rate with the PS/3?

An attach rate after only three months doesn't have much of a meaning.

Gary


My understanding is that the 8% number was just a typo from the same conversation that the rest of the reporters had used the figure 80%. It was the Sony's guy spinning the results of the survey, and one paper erroneously misquoted the amount.

I could be wrong, but I think that's what this is about.

My understanding is that the 8% number was just a typo from the same conversation that the rest of the reporters had used the figure 80%. It was the Sony's guy spinning the results of the survey, and one paper erroneously misquoted the amount.

I could be wrong, but I think that's what this is about.

I'd love to get confirmation on that one. That would truly be classic if that is in fact what Sony intended with the statement.

Let's not forget that they will have sold 6 million PS3 by the end of the month. That EU launch is going to have to be massive.

http://nexgenwars.com/
http://www.vgcharts.org/

Console Sales from 1/1/07 to 3/2/07

Nexgenwars
Xbox360 - 1,263,858
PS3 - 678,360
Wii - 2,664,758

VGCharts
Xbox360 - 1,460,000
PS3 - 790,000
Wii - 1,660,000

I'm confident that Fox and Disney remain fully and exclusively committed to Blu-ray. Future events will bear this out.

Seems quite reasonable to assume that anyway. Both markets are niche size but Sony has managed to at least demonstrate that they are committed to spending a great deal of money to grow that market and will in fact have millions of players out there for studios to sell into. They've shown as well that the PS3 certainly will sell some movies too.

The Hd-dvd group have to show they can get their player numbers into the millions in an acceptable time frame and they'll likely have to do it with the studio support they already have. Higher attach rates should mean less numbers than BD counts for more but it still needs to at least get into 7 figures. Warner projects that to happen this year, I guess we'll see.

GamesIndustry.biz: Three Steps Back
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=73642

European consumers, quite rightly, feel shafted by the decision. They are already facing a console launch months later than promised, and at a price point much higher than consumers in North America and Japan are being asked to pay - a price disparity which Sony has still completely failed to justify, even once taxes and fluctuating exchange rates are taken into account. Now it transpires that their expensive, delayed console is to be less functional than the cheaper systems which were being purchased elsewhere in the world three months ago. It's no wonder that not only are consumers hacked off, but that the mainstream press has also seen fit to report Sony's announcement in less than glowing terms.

Let's not forget that they will have sold 6 million PS3 by the end of the month. That EU launch is going to have to be massive.2Channel, if you are going to mock Sony for their earlier prediction about PS3 sales by March, which was pretty optimistic, you should be fair and do the same to Toshiba as well. After all Toshiba originally predicted that they would sell 600,000 to 700,000 HD DVD players (http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/asiatech/archives/2006/03/toshibas_delaye.html) by April 1st.

GamesIndustry.biz: Three Steps Back
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=73642

European consumers, quite rightly, feel shafted by the decision. They are already facing a console launch months later than promised, and at a price point much higher than consumers in North America and Japan are being asked to pay - a price disparity which Sony has still completely failed to justify, even once taxes and fluctuating exchange rates are taken into account. Now it transpires that their expensive, delayed console is to be less functional than the cheaper systems which were being purchased elsewhere in the world three months ago. It's no wonder that not only are consumers hacked off, but that the mainstream press has also seen fit to report Sony's announcement in less than glowing terms.

I don't think that a software solution for PS2 compatibility down the road will assuage European buyers who feel they are paying more for less than US and Japanese PS3 buyers got. This cost reduction and higher price for the PS3 will help Sony lose less money on the consoles in the European market, which may in turn lessen the negative financial impact resulting from US sales. Sooner or later, Sony has to start making money. Traditionally, stockholders cut some slack for R&D and competitive early launch prices. If the PS3 does not do as well as early as it was supposed to, creating a dominant installed base for gamers and developers, Sony may be less convincing in its reports to stockholders; and they may be less forgiving.

I don't believe studios releasing for either format are losing money on hd, although their profits are small compared to DVD profits. I don't believe the non-Sony Blu-ray hardware manufacturers are losing much money: Their sales are small in number relatively. But Sony is taking a financial hit for its lead horse, the PS3. On the other hand, I think that Toshiba is probably breaking even or even making a little money on its second generation models. I think the the greatest financial pressure is on Sony's shoulders right now. If Blu-ray wins quickly, it will have been worth it for them. But not winning quickly could be the same as losing it for them, since the red ink will pile up. Their announcement of a new $599 standalone player may be a concession that the PS3 is having trouble in the game market and therefore not getting the installed base it expected.

The problem in the game market is that subsiding players must be offset by sales of lots of exclusive games; and, with growth in demand and sales, economies of scale can kick in farther down the road. If this whole timetable is slowed or disrupted, because of sales not meeting projections, then a company is under tremendous pressure to change direction. IF HD DVD isn't knocked out soon (and I doubt that it will be knocked out at all -- at least not by an edge in disk sales in a tiny market), Sony will have many questions from investors to answer.

In sum, Blu-ray has to win this thing quickly. HD DVD doesn't have to win this thing quickly. Blu-ray has to deliver a decisive blow within the next year or so. HD DVD can think in terms of years. JMHO about why there are so many victory chants and claims on the Blu-ray side and why the HD DVD camp seems to be more relaxed despite shortfalls in disk releases and sales short term. It may be true that Toshiba and others in the HD DVD group are really scared to death behind the poker face they show even to their "fan base." But I just do not think that is the case at the present time.

not for naught is britian known as "treasure island". we've been fleased for so long and by so many companies that absolutely no fuss is made about this kind of thing. hd dvd is almost certainly a dead horse now in europe, with no build-up of players pre-ps3 launch, there's no market for the red format. unless the mythical chiness players come out very soon, at low prices, and in great number, there simply won't be any hd dvd market over here. which would tend to leave the us as the only hold out for a format war...

not for naught is britian known as "treasure island". we've been fleased for so long and by so many companies that absolutely no fuss is made about this kind of thing. hd dvd is almost certainly a dead horse now in europe, with no build-up of players pre-ps3 launch, there's no market for the red format. unless the mythical chiness players come out very soon, at low prices, and in great number, there simply won't be any hd dvd market over here. which would tend to leave the us as the only hold out for a format war...
Ouch!

If all the above holds true, does anyone think the studios would not take notice?

Probably doesn't portend any new neutrality from the the blu team.

My understanding is that the 8% number was just a typo from the same conversation that the rest of the reporters had used the figure 80%. It was the Sony's guy spinning the results of the survey, and one paper erroneously misquoted the amount.

I could be wrong, but I think that's what this is about.

That's what I had originally thought, but then subsequent posts here really threw me off base.

I wonder if we'll know what the true quote was supposed to be?

I don't know if this has been posted yet (I believe a summary of the info has, but not the graph), but it does provide proof that glue huffing is bad for analysts.

This is from our good friends at Pay Us and We'll Say Anything...some people might know them as Understanding & Solutions. I post this only because (1) it's wacky and (2) it was used as the centerpiece for discussion at the recent BDA US Seminar held in December.


http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/419/picture3gc8.gif

2Channel, if you are going to mock Sony for their earlier prediction about PS3 sales by March, which was pretty optimistic, you should be fair and do the same to Toshiba as well. After all Toshiba originally predicted that they would sell 600,000 to 700,000 HD DVD players (http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/asiatech/archives/2006/03/toshibas_delaye.html) by April 1st.

Well Richard, March 2006 was quite a ways back. Sony had some pretty good predictions back then as well. But that aside, I believe you are correct and they will fall short of that forecast.

I suggest we compare the most recent forecasts (for April 1 2007) from both sides and compare against their actual results (when we have the data). I have a feeling I know which side will come closer to their forecast.

Thanks for posting that Alex. Very interesting.

I don't know if this has been posted yet (I believe a summary of the info has, but not the graph), but it does provide proof that glue huffing is bad for analysts.

This is from our good friends at Pay Us and We'll Say Anything...some people might know them as Understanding & Solutions. I post this only because (1) it's wacky and (2) it was used as the centerpiece for discussion at the recent BDA US Seminar held in December.

You have to love predictions that go out years from now.

What is the HD/Blu-Ray Player/Recorder category? What do they mean by HD/Blu-Ray? Isn't the chart already wrong since this category is shown as being at a higher volume than the PS3 category?

I think that chart is just wacky. The only way it can make any sense is if the PS3 is the blue line, yet the label on the Y - axis seems to indicate otherwise...


I suggest we compare the most recent forecasts (for April 1 2007) from both sides and compare against their actual results (when we have the data).

That would be disingenuous unless you're forgetting that Sony ancitipated a launch 2-3x the size it actually got in November...

I think that chart is just wacky. The only way it can make any sense is if the PS3 is the blue line, yet the label on the Y - axis seems to indicate otherwise

The PS3 is the blue line.

The labels are arranged according to the end points on the chart, so 2010 is when they predict the total BR/HD-DVD standalone player installed base to pass the PS3 installed base, it is above the blue line at that point and thus the uppermost label.

It could be close to that but I think they are WAY off on the PC drives. And of course it looks like they predicted an installed base of PS3s of 8 million by 2007, which makes me wonder just how old this chart really is. :)

Ouch!

If all the above holds true, does anyone think the studios would not take notice?

Probably doesn't portend any new neutrality from the the blu team.


Comon Sketcha, what are you trying to sound like Ed McMahon? You usually steer clear of this sorta thing.

Comon Sketcha, what are you trying to sound like Ed McMahon? You usually steer clear of this sorta thing.
Yeah, I know. Kosty already got to me in PM over this. He went easy on me, too.

Not to give my buddy, nataraj any fuel, but...

had a long night and... subsequently rough morning.

Should've held off on posting, 'til I had my wits about me.

At least I prefaced it all with "if," though, right?

I don't know if this has been posted yet (I believe a summary of the info has, but not the graph), but it does provide proof that glue huffing is bad for analysts.

This is from our good friends at Pay Us and We'll Say Anything...some people might know them as Understanding & Solutions. I post this only because (1) it's wacky and (2) it was used as the centerpiece for discussion at the recent BDA US Seminar held in December.
That chart is competely off. When in 2006 did they create it?

There was not 5 million HD players sold by the middle of 2006.
The PS3 sales start in Jaunary 2006 but weren't actually out until November.
The chart shows HD/Blu-ray players outselling PS3 by 3:1 over the first two years.
The blue line does not include PS3 sales or 360 add-on sales. (PS3 line above blue line in 2010).

A 3-year old could probably scribble a more acurate graph.

Well Richard, March 2006 was quite a ways back. Sony had some pretty good predictions back then as well. But that aside, I believe you are correct and they will fall short of that forecast.All I am pointing out is that you shouldn't be so quick to attack Sony for their bad predictions when the HD DVD companies have had their fair share of them as well. For instance remember the 87 HD DVD titles that were going to be released in the fall of 2005 or how Windows Vista would have native HD DVD playback support? If you don't know about those than trust me when I say that Sony wasn't the only company in this format war that has made bad predictions.


I suggest we compare the most recent forecasts (for April 1 2007) from both sides and compare against their actual results (when we have the data). I have a feeling I know which side will come closer to their forecast.It would be interesting to know how many Toshiba HD DVD players were sold in the first year. Also just to point this out but their were other predictions that Toshiba made in that article (http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/asiatech/archives/2006/03/toshibas_delaye.html).

Hey guys....new to the forum. Interesting chart but one question assuming that HD will be the norm and thus the PS3 will in fact be a successful blu-ray player....with 4-5 million people already playing xbox360's....how is it that they are only going to sell 2%? Especially considering the price and how much lower that price will be by 2010?

Hey guys....new to the forum. Interesting chart but one question assuming that HD will be the norm and thus the PS3 will in fact be a successful blu-ray player....with 4-5 million people already playing xbox360's....how is it that they are only going to sell 2%? Especially considering the price and how much lower that price will be by 2010?First off welcome to the forum and though I don't agree with your initial post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9932769&&#post9932769) for someone who already owned an Xbox 360 the HD DVD drive was the cheaper HD option. As for the chart it looks completely wrong and it was probably made a while ago. Also in general the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is not going to be as big a factor as the PS3 in the format war because while the former requires an additional purchase while the latter requires none. This is one of the main factors why Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2 to 1 at the moment (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9643356&&#post9643356) though the greater studio support that Blu-ray (http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html) has compared to HD DVD (http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html) helps as well.

Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2 to 1 at the moment (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9643356&&#post9643356) though the greater studio support that Blu-ray (http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html) has compared to HD DVD (http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html) helps as well.


Yes, right now it's as if HD DVD and Blu-ray were homeless people, and you gave Blu-ray a dime and I gave HD DVD a nickel. Even if they pooled their resources it wouldn't buy a cup of coffee. ;)

In other words something has to first begin for something to be over.

Let's not forget that they will have sold 6 million PS3 by the end of the month. That EU launch is going to have to be massive.In a personal discussion I had a week ago a Sony representative told me they fully stand by their earlier estimate of 6M units shipped by the end of March. We can quibble about "shipped" vs "sold", but there were only Blu-ray supporters on the call - there would have been no reason for the rep to overstate their shipping estimates.

I don't believe the non-Sony Blu-ray hardware manufacturers are losing much money: Their sales are small in number relatively.Whether or not they are losing money on the individual players relative to the cost of materials and manufacturing for that player, there are certainly tens or hundreds of millions in R&D costs which neither side has begun to recoup (and which the HD DVD side will make increasingly difficult as long as they keep trying to drive the cost of players as low as possible as quickly as possible).
But Sony is taking a financial hit for its lead horse, the PS3. I think the the greatest financial pressure is on Sony's shoulders right now. If Blu-ray wins quickly, it will have been worth it for them. But not winning quickly could be the same as losing it for them, since the red ink will pile up.Yet Sony is quite profitable in spite of high costs of launching the PS3.
Their announcement of a new $599 standalone player may be a concession that the PS3 is having trouble in the game market and therefore not getting the installed base it expected.Odd interpretation. Launching a lower-cost player may shift non-gamers from buying a PS3 (which Sony must subsidize) to buying the standalone, while ensuring more of those who do buy PS3's are actually gamers for whom the subsidization is likely to yield a good return on investment.

In other words something has to first begin for something to be over.It has begun though. For instance which video format do you think will reach a million shipped movies first? Which format do you think will have the first million shipped movies for a single title? In my opinion Blu-ray is the format to beat and I think it has good odds of winning this format war. Personally I am not much of a fan for the idea of universal players since I really don't see the need for both HD formats especially considering the additional costs that would cause for every single HD player I would have to buy in the future.

Personally I am not much of a fan for the idea of universal players since I really don't see the need for both HD formats especially considering the additional costs that would cause for every single HD player I would have to buy in the future.


I feel the same way about Blu-ray. I don't see the need for the additional cost for a product that has the same quality as HD DVD.

But I may end up not having a choice.

GamesIndustry.biz: Three Steps Back
http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=73642

European consumers, quite rightly, feel shafted by the decision. They are already facing a console launch months later than promised, and at a price point much higher than consumers in North America and Japan are being asked to pay - a price disparity which Sony has still completely failed to justify, even once taxes and fluctuating exchange rates are taken into account. Now it transpires that their expensive, delayed console is to be less functional than the cheaper systems which were being purchased elsewhere in the world three months ago. It's no wonder that not only are consumers hacked off, but that the mainstream press has also seen fit to report Sony's announcement in less than glowing terms.

Here's another article worth looking at: "How Sony Killed the PlayStation3, and NOT Just in Europe" http://www.playfuls.com/news_06339_How_Sony_Killed_the_PlayStation3_and_NOT_Just_in_ Europe.html

The author deals with manufacturing cost issues, the stripping down of the EU player, game developers' shying away from writing for PS3 due to higher costs, and a host of other issues, too many to quote. The PS3 is in trouble among both gamers and developers. If the new version without PS2 hardware support ends up playing few PS2 games and few new quality games are developed for the PS3, then the PS3 will have little use beyond being an inexpensive way of playing Blu-ray movies.

Some quotes from the article:

The reason for this hardware modification is of course the cost-saving policy adopted a bit too late. Sony is known to lose a lot of money with every PlayStation 3. The combined materials and manufacturing cost of the PlayStation 3 is $805.85 for the model equipped with a 20Gbyte Hard Disk Drive (HDD), and $840.35 for the 60Gbyte HDD version. This total doesn't include additional costs for elements including the controller, cables and packaging. At these costs, Sony is taking a considerable loss on each PlayStation 3 sold. Materials and manufacturing costs for the 20Gbyte model exceed the suggested retail price of $499 by a total of $306.85. For the 60Gbyte version, costs exceed the $599 price by $241.35. With Sony taking a smaller loss on the higher-end model, it's not a surprise the company is steering customers to the 60Gbyte version.

In contrast, the HDD-equipped Xbox 360 has a manufacturing and materials total of $323.30, based on an updated estimate using costs in the fourth quarter of 2006. This total is $75.70 less than the $399 suggested retail price of the Xbox 360.

What Sony decided to cut from PS3 in order to cut overall costs is exactly the Emotion Engine that ensures the backwards compatibility. It is built by Toshiba, Sony, and IBM and is said to be two times faster than a 733 MHz Pentium III, giving Toshiba control over 11 percent of the total PlayStation 3 materials and manufacturing costs. With its removal from the PS3, Sony will apparently save around $27 with every manufactured console.
And what’s worse is that game developers are heading towards Wii and Xbox 360, rather than the PS3, with Valve’s Gabe Newell calling Sony’s console ”a total disaster”. From all next-gen consoles, programming for the Cell CPU is the most difficult and even at PS3’s launch in November Sony did not have enough developer-kits. It’s also a lot more expensive for game-developers to build games for PS3, which translates into higher prices for PS3 games.

This clarifies what I think is a shift in Sony strategy: With its projected $599 standalone player, which will compete directly with the PS3, Sony hopes to put some of its eggs in a different basket.

Yes, right now it's as if HD DVD and Blu-ray were homeless people, and you gave Blu-ray a dime and I gave HD DVD a nickel. Even if they pooled their resources it wouldn't buy a cup of coffee. ;)

In other words something has to first begin for something to be over.
Yes... we have to "begin" having only 1 format!

From what I gather, player sales are pretty much there (relative to early DVD player sales.) Your (HD DVD supporters') precious "attach rates" are an indication that the war is choking software purchases.

It has begun though. For instance which video format do you think will reach a million shipped movies first? Which format do you think will have the first million shipped movies for a single title? In my opinion Blu-ray is the format to beat and I think it has good odds of winning this format war. Personally I am not much of a fan for the idea of universal players since I really don't see the need for both HD formats especially considering the additional costs that would cause for every single HD player I would have to buy in the future.

Given the cost of producing a new format such as this, nobody's making money and nobody's selling anything close to a million of a single title, even if a studio did they will still make more on the DVD release.

At this point, and until Fall it's pretty much a given BD is going to sell more disks, I know it, you know it, so do the studios, so does Sony and Toshiba.

However, for anything to die, or lose it first has to win something. Nothing has been won here.

HD-DVD is selling less than BD, BD is selling more, but from most analysis is also more in the red after massive subsidies and promotion. Until things change what your reacting too is who appears to be loosing the least.

Yes... we have to "begin" having only 1 format!

Who's we? The greater HD community? I have one format so far, it's just not the one your suggesting. I'm not going to buy the other "for the good of HD and SONY" or to pick up the 4 BDs I can swallow.

I made a choice, I have supported it finacially, if it doesn't work out I'm a big boy I can take it.

I'm not saying you, but it's seeming more and more like the folks ardently trying to tell me what I should be buy, haven't even bought the format they are gunning for yet. Support what you like based on your own criteria and let the chips fall, these aren't charities.

I'm not convinced this is the end of the beginning. It is only a surge of shiny disk buying by new PS3 owners, many of whom will never buy another. I would really like to see some reliable -numbers- of stand alone player sales. That to me would have greater weight on how this is going. Apples to apples.

Who's we? The greater HD community? I have one format so far, it's just not the one your suggesting. I'm not going to buy the other "for the good of HD and SONY" or to pick up the 4 BDs I can swallow.

I made a choice, I have supported it finacially, if it doesn't work out I'm a big boy I can take it.

I'm not saying you, but it's seeming more and more like the folks ardently trying to tell me what I should be buy, haven't even bought the format they are gunning for yet. Support what you like based on your own criteria and let the chips fall, these aren't charities.
"We," of course was a figure of speech. You might hear that kind of language from a teacher, "If WE have five apples and WE take away three..." I think you did take that a bit personally, but that happens to us battle weary AVS members sometimes.

I was responding to your statement about how piddly the software sales are.

There are many people here who think the war is just peachy-keen. You might be in that camp as an apparent supporter of combo players. The fact is, software adoption rate is about 1/10 that of DVD for its first year. How could that be good?

I'm not telling anyone what to do. We have a format war, that's the harsh reality. I just don't like being told that it's so great.

I'm not convinced this is the end of the beginning. It is only a surge of shiny disk buying by new PS3 owners, many of whom will never buy another. I would really like to see some reliable -numbers- of stand alone player sales. That to me would have greater weight on how this is going. Apples to apples.
If that is true, then we are in for a "surge" for quite awhile. PS3 sales are going to out pace standalones of both formats, probably for years.

If that is true, then we are in for a "surge" for quite awhile. PS3 sales are going to out pace standalones of both formats, probably for years.

If the PS3 is the main HD delivery system for years, HD is a goner. Studios won't support a format way more expensive than UMD, with the same or lower player sales an attach rates.

It's funny, so many have made a big deal about how things appeared at CES this year. Well take a picture because it's the last year any HD format steals the spotlight no matter how big their display or how big their claims. HD is in the precarious position of losing it's novel appeal before it even gets off the ground, and that ain't good.

If the PS3 is the main HD delivery system for years, HD is a goner.
I'm sorry, can you point out where I made that statement?

My point is that the PS3 will remain a powerful factor, not, necessarily the "main HD delivery system."

I'm sorry, can you point out where I made that statement?

My point is that the PS3 will remain a powerful factor, not, necessarily the "main HD delivery system."
excuse my extrapolation :D

excuse my extrapolation :D
Extrapolation excused. ;)

There are many people here who think the war is just peachy-keen. You might be in that camp as an apparent supporter of combo players. The fact is, software adoption rate is about 1/10 that of DVD for its first year. How could that be good?




Do we actually ahve numbers for DVD's sold in the early days? I was guessing it was higher than now, but not this much. I do remember the Matrix was the first DVD to sell over 1 million copies, and that was released in Fall of '99, two years after the format launched.

If that is true, then we are in for a "surge" for quite awhile. PS3 sales are going to out pace standalones of both formats, probably for years.
Well, if the 80/20 rule applies (like it does in lots of cases), 80% of disk sales will be to 20% of PS3 owners, and it is a surge.

Do we actually ahve numbers for DVD's sold in the early days? I was guessing it was higher than now, but not this much. I do remember the Matrix was the first DVD to sell over 1 million copies, and that was released in Fall of '99, two years after the format launched.
Here are some shipment figures.

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/102401.html

If the PS3 is the main HD delivery system for years, HD is a goner. Studios won't support a format way more expensive than UMD, with the same or lower player sales an attach rates.

It's funny, so many have made a big deal about how things appeared at CES this year. Well take a picture because it's the last year any HD format steals the spotlight no matter how big their display or how big their claims. HD is in the precarious position of losing it's novel appeal before it even gets off the ground, and that ain't good.HD is already well off the ground. The main HD delivery system will be broadcast television. The studios are already supporting Blu-ray and HD DVD. Movies are and will be encoded for highdef play back on broadcast and cable television stations.

After the digital switchover many televisions will have to be replaced. They will likely be replaced with HD sets. CEs don't make a lot of profits on their digital SD sets. Just, look at the difference in prices between the SD 4:3 sets and the HD sets in today's ads.

Do we actually ahve numbers for DVD's sold in the early days? I was guessing it was higher than now, but not this much. I do remember the Matrix was the first DVD to sell over 1 million copies, and that was released in Fall of '99, two years after the format launched.


We would also do well to remember that less than 30% have the HDTV you need to even bother with the player.

Second generation DVD players were about $375 and you had the TV. If you have to start from scratch your looking at a $1000 to set yourself up with HD, that's major coin for an "upgrade".

HD is already well off the ground. The main HD delivery system will be broadcast television. The studios are already supporting Blu-ray and HD DVD. Movies are and will be encoded for highdef play back on broadcast and cable television stations.

After the digital switchover many televisions will have to be replaced. They will likely be replaced with HD sets. CEs don't make a lot of profits on their digital SD sets. Just, look at the difference in prices between the SD 4:3 sets and the HD sets in today's ads.

Isn't there like a $20 gizmo that lets you keep your TV til you feel like bothering.

I myself am keeping the old SD set until it dies, I have a LCD projector for Hi-deffing. I don't care what definition I watch Family Guy or the Daily Show at.

Okay, I have to get this off my chest since it is getting ridiculous in the fact that questioning Amir in the Insiders thread has all but gotten impossible. Let me explain why. Amir makes a large post filled with mistakes both small and large (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9931723&&#post9931723) and I question him on a few of his comments. For instance:Instead of just one, the AVC filter softens up to 3 pixels on either side of the block edge.Amir, do you mean to say "up to" 3 pixels or do you mean to say exactly 3 pixels? If the effects of the filter could vary why than did you never indicate that before in the previous posts you made about MPEG-4 AVC?Okay, honestly I think that was pretty nice especially since in many past posts he stated as a fact that it was 3 pixels of filtering on either side of the block. Because of this question, which was of course deleted by the mods, someone also asked about that (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9934887&&#post9934887) and Amir responds by posting this :AVC will either use 2 pixels on either side of a block edge or 3 pixels. It picks one or the other based on level of gradient. In no case does it go down to a single pixel as VC-1 does.Of course that isn't true and Ron points that out in this post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9935078&&#post9935078). I know some people here really like Amir but I just wanted to point out that there are good reasons why I am always questioning him. Stuff like this is one of those reasons.

RP, why do you think dr1394's response isn't enough challenge to Amir?

RP, why do you think dr1394's response isn't enough challenge to Amir?I never said that and why would you even think that? Ron's post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9935078&&#post9935078) was a detailed and highly effective response.

I just find it amazing that non-insiders have such a tough time asking any questions about what Amir has posted. For instance was my question that got deleted really that bad? From what I can see it was a pretty good one.

Okay, I have to get this off my chest since it is getting ridiculous in the fact that questioning Amir in the Insiders thread has all but gotten impossible. Let me explain why. Amir makes a large post filled with mistakes both small and large (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9931723&&#post9931723) and I question him on a few of his comments. For instance:Okay, honestly I think that was pretty nice especially since in many past posts he stated as a fact that it was 3 pixels of filtering on either side of the block. Because of this question, which was of course deleted by the mods, someone also asked about that (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9934887&&#post9934887) and Amir responds by posting this :Of course that isn't true and Ron points that out in this post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9935078&&#post9935078). I know some people here really like Amir but I just wanted to point out that there are good reasons why I am always questioning him. Stuff like this is one of those reasons.


In my opinion, you have a good prayer, but were at the wrong church.

I think this is a good place to argue about what he said, but the insiders thread isn't. That's not a place to challenge insiders, it's a place to ask questions. For example, I have many challenges to assertions made by the new insider in that thread. But that isn't the place for it. So if I'm going to do it, I'll have to do it down here somewhere.

Okay, honestly I think that was pretty nice
Yes it was, but I don't believe that was the problem. The issue was with the rest of your post. The relentless innuendo is starting to wear very thin.

Frankly I don't particularly care whether you or anyone else here harbors real unabashed hatred for Amir or any other insider. But if you can't find a way to articulate your questions in a civil and non-confrontational manner then you just aren't trying hard enough and I for one am in favor of those posts getting pulled.

In short, if you want to get your message across then find a better way to communicate it and stop casting yourselves in the role of prosecuting attorney. This isn't the O-J Simpson trial.

--Jerome

Okay, I have to get this off my chest since it is getting ridiculous in the fact that questioning Amir in the Insiders thread has all but gotten impossible. Let me explain why. Amir makes a large post filled with mistakes both small and large (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9931723&&#post9931723) and I question him on a few of his comments. For instance:Okay, honestly I think that was pretty nice especially since in many past posts he stated as a fact that it was 3 pixels of filtering on either side of the block. Because of this question, which was of course deleted by the mods, someone also asked about that (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9934887&&#post9934887) and Amir responds by posting this :Of course that isn't true and Ron points that out in this post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9935078&&#post9935078). I know some people here really like Amir but I just wanted to point out that there are good reasons why I am always questioning him. Stuff like this is one of those reasons.
Everything looks reasonable here, but, of course it is not in complete context so I couldn't give you a true opinion.

Now those people here that "really like Amir" are HD DVD supporters. I don't see him as anything more than an HD DVD insider who promotes his political agenda and spins accordingly. I'm sure he is full of factual information that most of us are not privy to without his graciousness, but I take everything he says with a bag o' (not a truckload, mind you) salt.

I just find it amazing that non-insiders have such a tough time asking any questions about what Amir has posted.There are reasons why this happens, but they can't be mentioned because those explanations also get deleted.

There are reasons why this happens, but they can't be mentioned because those explanations also get deleted.
Gnarly!

There are reasons why this happens, but they can't be mentioned because those explanations also get deleted.
baloney

Isn't there like a $20 gizmo that lets you keep your TV til you feel like bothering.

I myself am keeping the old SD set until it dies, I have a LCD projector for Hi-deffing. I don't care what definition I watch Family Guy or the Daily Show at.I don't know how much each set-top box will cost. But it will likely be more than $20. Beginning in 2008, each household may be able to obtain up to two coupons worth $40 each toward the purchase of converter boxes from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (http://www.fcc.gov/cgb/consumerfacts/digitaltv.html) .

FWIW, cable companies might continue providing certain popular channels in analog by performing a D/A conversion on the incoming signal so that their subscribers won't need set-top boxes, for their analog tvs in the kitchens for instance.

Game Console Forecast from IDC (http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2007/03/game_console_forecast_from_idc_nintendo_wii_on_top.html)
The Nintendo Wii is expected to outsell the other consoles in both 2007 and 2008, according to a new forecast from International Data Corp.Wii is first by the end of 2008, Microsoft is No. 2, and Sony is No. 3. By the end of 2011, Sony ends up on top.

In my opinion, you have a good prayer, but were at the wrong church.

I think this is a good place to argue about what he said, but the insiders thread isn't. That's not a place to challenge insiders, it's a place to ask questions.I can understand that the mods want to make the insiders comfortable in the Industry Insiders thread but I have a hard time wrapping my mind around the idea that the insiders can post what they want in the insiders thread and that the only ones that can question them are other insiders. Also how do you know that questioning of Amir's posts even when made in this thread won't be deleted?


Yes it was, but I don't believe that was the problem. The issue was with the rest of your post. The relentless innuendo is starting to wear very thin.That question about how Microsoft can take pride in MPEG-4 AVC while at the same time saying that studios who use is have made a mistake was a bit harsh but I think even it was a fair question. After all how exactly can Microsoft claim pride in MPEG-4 AVC while saying that all the studios that use it have made a mistake?


Frankly I don't particularly care whether you or anyone else here harbors real unabashed hatred for Amir or any other insider.Good use of a passive aggressive statement but you are mistaken about that. I have nothing personal against Amir though I do often disagree with what he posts.


There are reasons why this happens, but they can't be mentioned because those explanations also get deleted.Just my opinion but I think it basically just boils down to the fact that Amir is an insider who posts here often. As such he is considered by the mods to be an important forum member worthy of extra consideration.

Here are some shipment figures.

http://www.dvdinformation.com/News/press/102401.html



OK, back to non-Amir discussion...

According to the above website, there were 5.5 million DVD's shipped in 1997.

According to Bill Hunt's website there were ~315,000 DVD players sold in 1997.

So each bought roughly 17 discs on average.

Hd-DVD and BluRay are hovering between 0.7 and 3.5 depending on who does the calcuation. For every one person on AVS who has in their tag they own 50 movies, there are 48 others who own ~0.

I'm not questioning the slow adoption in general - only 25-35% of households have and HDTV, DVD is already here and good enough for most, there is a format war, blah blah blah. These are all reasons for not buying a player at all.

When you look at the number of players out on both sides and the number of discs sold, this tells us that HiDef is currently a renters format - this assuming the players are being used.


So the studios have sucessfully screwed themselves a third time. VHS had a rental window, so nobody bought movies, so Blockbuster took over their industry. With DVD they got rid of the rental window and went straight to sell through, destroying blockbuster's market. Everybody became collectors, but lower and lower DVD prices meant they were making less and less money.

So here we are with HiDef. They figured people would pay the premium to buy rereleases with more pixels. Not so much apparently.

OK, back to non-Amir discussion...

According to the above website, there were 5.5 million DVD's shipped in 1997.

According to Bill Hunt's website there were ~315,000 DVD players sold in 1997.

So each bought roughly 17 discs on average.

Hd-DVD and BluRay are hovering between 0.7 and 3.5 depending on who does the calcuation. For every one person on AVS who has in their tag they own 50 movies, there are 48 others who own ~0.

I'm not questioning the slow adoption in general - only 25-35% of households have and HDTV, DVD is already here and good enough for most, there is a format war, blah blah blah. These are all reasons for not buying a player at all.

When you look at the number of players out on both sides and the number of discs sold, this tells us that HiDef is currently a renters format - this assuming the players are being used.


So the studios have sucessfully screwed themselves a third time. VHS had a rental window, so nobody bought movies, so Blockbuster took over their industry. With DVD they got rid of the rental window and went straight to sell through, destroying blockbuster's market. Everybody became collectors, but lower and lower DVD prices meant they were making less and less money.

So here we are with HiDef. They figured people would pay the premium to buy rereleases with more pixels. Not so much apparently.
Info from the DVD FAQ..
# 1997

* 349,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (About 200,000 sold into homes.)
* 900 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S. Over 5 million copies shipped; about 2 million sold.
* Over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped worldwide.
* Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles.
* 60 DVD-ROM titles (mostly bundled).

# 1998

* 1,089,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 1,438,000.)
* 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
* 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
* 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased.

# 1999

* 4,019,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 5,457,000.)
* Over 6,300 DVD-Video titles in the U.S.
* About 26 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
* About 75 DVD-ROM titles available in the U.S.

Both HD formats combined are nowhere near what DVD did at introduction.

b2b

I don't know how much each set-top box will cost. But it will likely be more than $20. Beginning in 2008, each household may be able to obtain up to two coupons worth $40 each toward the purchase of converter boxes from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (http://www.fcc.gov/cgb/consumerfacts/digitaltv.html) .

FWIW, cable companies might continue providing certain popular channels in analog by performing a D/A conversion on the incoming signal so that their subscribers won't need set-top boxes, for their analog tvs in the kitchens for instance.
Wouldn't that violate the new law?

I don't want any analog crap mucking up my bandwith ANYMORE!

Give me a box for my guest room and garage!

I have nothing personal against Amir though I do often disagree with what he posts.
The facts are not on your side here Richard. You go out of your way to get into confrontations with Amir and many of your posts have an unmistakable accusatory tone to them (and that is putting it kindly).

You frequently have interesting comments and were it not for that I would have added you to my ignore list a long time ago. Unfortunately, your keen insights often get drowned in a sea of overt animosity that colors most of your exchanges with Amir. If you toned down the personal angst you might find a more receptive audience when you have something important to say.

--Jerome

OK, back to non-Amir discussion...

According to the above website, there were 5.5 million DVD's shipped in 1997.

According to Bill Hunt's website there were ~315,000 DVD players sold in 1997.

So each bought roughly 17 discs on average.

Hd-DVD and BluRay are hovering between 0.7 and 3.5 depending on who does the calcuation. For every one person on AVS who has in their tag they own 50 movies, there are 48 others who own ~0.

I'm not questioning the slow adoption in general - only 25-35% of households have and HDTV, DVD is already here and good enough for most, there is a format war, blah blah blah. These are all reasons for not buying a player at all.

When you look at the number of players out on both sides and the number of discs sold, this tells us that HiDef is currently a renters format - this assuming the players are being used.


So the studios have sucessfully screwed themselves a third time. VHS had a rental window, so nobody bought movies, so Blockbuster took over their industry. With DVD they got rid of the rental window and went straight to sell through, destroying blockbuster's market. Everybody became collectors, but lower and lower DVD prices meant they were making less and less money.

So here we are with HiDef. They figured people would pay the premium to buy rereleases with more pixels. Not so much apparently.
Now you're starting to come around to my point of view. Sweet, my first convert. ;)

However, I still think the format war is the chief reason for low attach rates on both sides. No one wants to get stuck with an obsolete collection so why not rent? And a quick glance at the average queue will tell you there is heavy demand. I got the guy from Netflix, today to tell me they are adding catalog titles all the time, so they're not exactly backing down from HD optical support.

And yeah, LG has a combo player. IF any near-future buyers even heard about it, all they heard was twelve hundred bucks!

This is why I am not interested in hearing anybody praise this lovely format war.

Yeah, prices may have come down because of it, but how do we know that adoption wouldn't have sped up, with just one format and economies of scale, with competition between ALL manufacturers, wouldn't have had the same effect?

I'm not telling anyone what to do. Support who you want. Fine. But if you try to sell ME on the benefits of the format war, you will run into heavy opposition.

JMHO

Wouldn't that violate the new law?

I don't want any analog crap mucking up my bandwith ANYMORE!

Give me a box for my guest room and garage!AFAIK the DTV switchover only applies to OTA broadcasts.

AFAIK the DTV switchover only applies to OTA broadcasts.
When they switch off analog, OTA will be dead for all practical purposes. The "converter" boxes are a joke..

b2b

When they switch off analog, OTA will be dead for all practical purposes. The "converter" boxes are a joke..b2b
Unfortunately, no. OTA broadcast licenses are gold, even though 90% of their viewers are cable. DTV even gives them 4 channels for 1

In a personal discussion I had a week ago a Sony representative told me they fully stand by their earlier estimate of 6M units shipped by the end of March. We can quibble about "shipped" vs "sold", but there were only Blu-ray supporters on the call - there would have been no reason for the rep to overstate their shipping estimates.

Hi Talk. Glad to hear that Sony is still standing by those numbers. Based on the most rosey estimates of current sales (vgcharts), that would indicate they need to ship 1 million units a week for the next 4 weeks. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

Is it correct that Sony is providing 250,000 PS3s for the EU launch? If not, do you know what their launch stock pile is for this launch?

Game Console Forecast from IDC (http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2007/03/game_console_forecast_from_idc_nintendo_wii_on_top.html)

That's a pretty good one Talk. Let me help you out. You forgot to include the full title of Dean Takahashi's piece.

Game Console Forecast From IDC: Nintendo Wii On Top
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2007/03/game_console_forecast_from_idc_nintendo_wii_on_top.html

And while your analysis was interesting, quotes are soooo much more interesting.

Microsoft’s Xbox 360 installed base of consoles sold is expected to grow from 10 million in 2006 to 19.8 million by the end of 2007 and 30.4 million by the end of 2008. The PS 3 suffered from launch problems but IDC expects it and all of the consoles to be successful. The PS 3 is expected to grow to 11.7 million by the end of 2007 and 24.5 million by the end of 2008. The Wii is expected to hit 13.3 million by the end of 2007 and 32.1 million by the en dof 2008. Between those three platforms, the market share in 2008 comes out to 35 percent for Microsoft, 28 percent for Sony, and 37 percent for Nintendo.

So there you have a prediction. Wii is first by the end of 2008, Microsoft is No. 2, and Sony is No. 3. That’s now it all ends, of course, but it’s a big difference from the last generation. By the end of 2011, Sony ends up on top.

These numbers are already hopelessly optimistic in favor of the PS3, why try to spin it? Sony isn't anywhere near the sales numbers they need to achieve the predictions above. Perhaps IDC is banking on a quick price drop on the PS3 to increase sales volume.

I'm curious, does Sony officially dispute the IDC prediction since their own target is 6 million by the end of this month?

The facts are not on your side here Richard. You go out of your way to get into confrontations with Amir and many of your posts have an unmistakable accusatorial tone to them (and that is putting it kindly).To debate with someone though is not the same as personally disliking them. I don't intend for any of my posts to be rude yet at the same time I see no reason not to point out obvious logical contradictions. One of which is how Microsoft can take pride in MPEG-4 AVC while at the same time considering any studio that uses it to have made a mistake.


Unfortunately, your keen insights often get drowned in a sea of overt animosity that colors most of your exchanges with Amir.Do not mistake bluntness for animosity. I have nothing personal against Amir and I understand well that he is just doing his job as a HD DVD promoter.

That chart is competely off. When in 2006 did they create it?

There was not 5 million HD players sold by the middle of 2006.
The PS3 sales start in Jaunary 2006 but weren't actually out until November.
The chart shows HD/Blu-ray players outselling PS3 by 3:1 over the first two years.
The blue line does not include PS3 sales or 360 add-on sales. (PS3 line above blue line in 2010).

A 3-year old could probably scribble a more acurate graph.

I think those dates must be end dates and not start
and agree with others that the blue line must be PS3

he is just doing his job as a HD DVD promoter.
I think this is core to a lot of the bad attitude around here. I could say the same thing about Paidgeek, but all that does is discount his knowledge and expertise to that of a schill. (edit: I don't)

You may be a fan of BD, and that may make it difficult for you to admit shortcomings of BD or the advantages of HD. I prefer to think the insiders (most if not all) are fans of what they do, or why would they put up with the nonsense here - there ain't enough money. But as fans they support their team.

I think this is core to a lot of the bad attitude around here. I could say the same thing about Paidgeek, but all that does is discount his knowledge and expertise to that of a schill. (edit: I don't)Well in the case of Amir I am not exaggerating when I say he is a HD DVD promoter. That is actually one of his job functions and as he has said at CES he is here to make sure that HD DVD doesn't go away.


I prefer to think the insiders (most if not all) are fans of what they do, or why would they put up with the nonsense here - there ain't enough money. But as fans they support their team.I can understand that Amir wants to support what his company supports and I am just saying that as someone who is officially promoting HD DVD he is going to promote it a lot more than an average HD DVD supporter would. All I am saying is that this understanding helps put his posts in this forum in a better frame of reference.

Insiders should be confined to talk about their own companies instead of being allowed to attack their competition.

I think those dates must be end dates and not start
and agree with others that the blue line must be PS3
http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/419/picture3gc8.gif

It's clear to me that the red line ends higher than the blue line.
29% PS3 > 28% HD Player/Recorder
Therefore, the red line is supposed to represent PS3 sales.
I don't think I've ever seen a line graph with years representing end years like this chart does, IMO it would be more intuitive for EOY totals if they used a bar chart.

Sure is a wacky chart. Hard to believe they get paid for putting these charts out.

That's a pretty good one Talk. Let me help you out. You forgot to include the full title of Dean Takahashi's piece.

Game Console Forecast From IDC: Nintendo Wii On Top
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/aei/2007/03/game_console_forecast_from_idc_nintendo_wii_on_top.html

And while your analysis was interesting, quotes are soooo much more interesting.

Microsoft’s Xbox 360 installed base of consoles sold is expected to grow from 10 million in 2006 to 19.8 million by the end of 2007 and 30.4 million by the end of 2008. The PS 3 suffered from launch problems but IDC expects it and all of the consoles to be successful. The PS 3 is expected to grow to 11.7 million by the end of 2007 and 24.5 million by the end of 2008. The Wii is expected to hit 13.3 million by the end of 2007 and 32.1 million by the en dof 2008. Between those three platforms, the market share in 2008 comes out to 35 percent for Microsoft, 28 percent for Sony, and 37 percent for Nintendo.

So there you have a prediction. Wii is first by the end of 2008, Microsoft is No. 2, and Sony is No. 3. That’s now it all ends, of course, but it’s a big difference from the last generation. By the end of 2011, Sony ends up on top.

These numbers are already hopelessly optimistic in favor of the PS3, why try to spin it? Sony isn't anywhere near the sales numbers they need to achieve the predictions above. Perhaps IDC is banking on a quick price drop on the PS3 to increase sales volume.

I'm curious, does Sony officially dispute the IDC prediction since their own target is 6 million by the end of this month?

He also forgot to mention that all three consoles will trounce HD DVD player sales by more than 5 to 1 as HD DVD's installed base won't even reach 2 million units by the end of 2007. Oh wait I see what the author did now, HD DVD sales will be so insignificant that it wasn't even worth mentioning.

Well in the case of Amir I am not exaggerating when I say he is a HD DVD promoter. That is actually one of his job functions and as he has said at CES he is here to make sure that HD DVD doesn't go away.


I can understand that Amir wants to support what his company supports and I am just saying that as someone who is officially promoting HD DVD he is going to promote it a lot more than an average HD DVD supporter would. All I am saying is that this understanding helps put his posts in this forum in a better frame of reference.

I considered posting a question asking him whether there was any significance to the fact that recently he seems to be focusing a lot more on promoting VC-1 than on promoting HD DVD, but I decided against it for fear it would seem too confrontational.

Well in the case of Amir I am not exaggerating when I say he is a HD DVD promoter. That is actually one of his job functions and as he has said at CES he is here to make sure that HD DVD doesn't go away. I can understand that Amir wants to support what his company supports and I am just saying that as someone who is officially promoting HD DVD he is going to promote it a lot more than an average HD DVD supporter would. All I am saying is that this understanding helps put his posts in this forum in a better frame of reference.

OK, but that doesn't justify attitudes around here that are so confrontational that they get deleted. (thank you mods) I suggest that it may be difficult for some BD fans to accept positive discussion on the merits of HD-DVD. Amir gave a full paper on the development of VC-1, and was roundly attacked on the 3 pixel issue, even though the discrepancy (if any) was already laid out in a factual manner. There are people laying in wait for such opportunities. Where were the questions to amplify on points?

We have all kinds of attack posts on title encoding comparisons, when the variables are so great that specific comparisons are almost meaningless. Too when the flaws are visible only when paused and well within any normal viewing distance. No allowance that the compressionist may have goofed, instead it is a condemnation of the whole format. Straight fandom. Or it appears that way. The sad thing is that the attackers may not realize what they are doing.

Or BD fans complaining about HD audio when HD owners aren't.

Amir shares his great knowledge much more openly than most, he's obviously a busy man, he is very polite with us and he tries to provide new inside information. That is due some respect that is lacking from many posters here, and it carries throughout.

Please, check the tint of your glasses when you do a reply here, and compose it as if you were talking to a friend - use :) 's Don't mean to lecture, but that's how I see it, for all the good it will do.

OK, but that doesn't justify attitudes around here that are so confrontational that they get deleted. (thank you mods) I suggest that it may be difficult for some BD fans to accept positive discussion on the merits of HD-DVD. Amir gave a full paper on the development of VC-1, and was roundly attacked on the 3 pixel issue, even though the discrepancy (if any) was already laid out in a factual manner. There are people laying in wait for such opportunities. Where were the questions to amplify on points?

We have all kinds of attack posts on title encoding comparisons, when the variables are so great that specific comparisons are almost meaningless. Too when the flaws are visible only when paused and well within any normal viewing distance. No allowance that the compressionist may have goofed, instead it is a condemnation of the whole format. Straight fandom. Or it appears that way. The sad thing is that the attackers may not realize what they are doing.

Or BD fans complaining about HD audio when HD owners aren't.

Amir shares his great knowledge much more openly than most, he's obviously a busy man, he is very polite with us and he tries to provide new inside information. That is due some respect that is lacking from many posters here, and it carries throughout.

Please, check the tint of your glasses when you do a reply here, and compose it as if you were talking to a friend - use :) 's Don't mean to lecture, but that's how I see it, for all the good it will do.

I certainly agree that we should be polite and civil with Amir as with anyone else. I own both formats and thus I feel it is appropriate for me to comment on both formats. I have no biases for or against VC-1, AVC, or MPEG2. What I do have a bias against is poor results in the transfer process that are not attributable to flaws in the source material.

Amir's perspective is undoubtedly influenced by his employment position and by the interests of Microsoft. I'm sure he would not deny that. It ought not to be considered offensive to make polite challenges, when appropriate, to what he says.

Insiders should be confined to talk about their own companies instead of being allowed to attack their competition.

I couldn't agree more.

Insiders should be confined to talk about their own companies instead of being allowed to attack their competition.
Unless they want to open up the discussion for debate. ;)

OK, but that doesn't justify attitudes around here that are so confrontational that they get deleted. (thank you mods) I suggest that it may be difficult for some BD fans to accept positive discussion on the merits of HD-DVD. Amir gave a full paper on the development of VC-1, and was roundly attacked on the 3 pixel issue, even though the discrepancy (if any) was already laid out in a factual manner. There are people laying in wait for such opportunities. Where were the questions to amplify on points?


What I find the most annoying are gleeful, aggressive, negative posts about one of the other formats progress issues. It's really poor sportsmanship. Don't $hit where you live, it invalidates any credibility you may have had.

I never previously used ignore functions on any sight before, because I thought it was tantamount to burying my head in the sand. However, there really are a handful who have nothing to contribute but FUD, even if they dress it up with a few red-herring paragraphs first.

This whole "format war" is playing out more like a "format election," and like an election, too much partisan bickering does little more than suppress turnout. Unlike an election there is little to be gained, since "none of the above" is a viable option that can take the whole show down with it.

I don't think either format is going away based on what I see, but if HD DVD vanished tomorrow the amount of "in your face" schadenfreude I've absorbed from the BD camp has pretty much lost my pre-mass adoption financial support. I know this works both ways, I'm just avoiding the pretense of not naming my bias.

but if HD DVD vanished tomorrow the amount of "in your face" schadenfreude I've absorbed from the BD camp has pretty much lost my pre-mass adoption financial support. I know this works both ways, I'm just avoiding the pretense of not naming my bias.
Good post.

But don't let a handful of bad eggs ruin the salad for you.

This whole "format war" is playing out more like a "format election," and like an election, too much partisan bickering does little more than suppress turnout. Unlike an election there is little to be gained, since "none of the above" is a viable option that can take the whole show down with it.
I really like this point. Many claim that having two formats is causing confusion and the lack of adoption of hi def disks, when it is really the FUD (negative advertising) flying around. Except for the presidential election, pols from both parties are elected for better or worse, just fewer voters are involved.

Unless they want to open up the discussion for debate. ;)We non-insiders can do that.

And I'm looking forward to living in Schadenfreudeville for the next few years.

I really like this point. Many claim that having two formats is causing confusion and the lack of adoption of hi def disks, when it is really the FUD (negative advertising) flying around. Except for the presidential election, pols from both parties are elected for better or worse, just fewer voters are involved.
I disagree. Yes there is a level of confusion... and FUD. But I think it's very clear that the major factor is the fact that many people will not wish to jump in until they are certain the war is over and that their collection will not become obsolete.

We non-insiders can do that.
Apparently only between ourselves, not with insiders... unless we agree with them. If true, that is a shame.

Apparently only between ourselves, not with insiders... unless we agree with them. If true, that is a shame.

I agree.

Apparently only between ourselves, not with insiders... unless we agree with them. If true, that is a shame.
There appear to be enough insiders on both sides to balance the insiders' thread. You can disagree all you like in this thread and others. If you (not meaning you Sketcha) are civil, they may join in.

I disagree. Yes there is a level of confusion... and FUD. But I think it's very clear that the major factor is the fact that many people will not wish to jump in until they are certain the war is over and that their collection will not become obsolete.
This is a congress not a presidency - red and blue will have to learn to share the market, and we will be better off for it

There appear to be enough insiders on both sides to balance the insiders' thread. You can disagree all you like in this thread and others. If you (not meaning you Sketcha) are civil, they may join in.

The insiders don't always have the same viewpoint on issues that non-insiders may have.

Apparently only between ourselves, not with insiders... unless we agree with them. If true, that is a shame.Insiders used to post everywhere, and some still do. Amir used to. We can ask anything in general threads. But Amir retreated into the "Protected Zone" of the Insider thread a while ago.

That's because a few posters became confrontational and argumentative. They generally rejected anything he said.

Apparently only between ourselves, not with insiders... unless we agree with them. If true, that is a shame.


The problem is, people have ruined the privilege of having real discussions with the insiders in the rest of the forum.

Amir used to post down here all the time. But people had to be rude to him. People don't know how to argue on the merits without attacking him as a person. So, he no longer post down here for the most part.

There is a long line of people, people whom I respect by the way, who were more interested in destroying his credibility then talking about the issues. And those are the people that are responsible for him not posting here anymore.

Talkstr8t, (who describes his job as marketing, btw,) has a running thread down here. He spends most of his time talking about how HD DVD has lost the war, etc. But most people don't complain about his bashing of HD DVD, and Microsoft for that matter. So if that's what you're interested in, you can still talk to him some.

But most people don't complain about his bashing of HD DVD, and Microsoft for that matter.
!

That's because a few posters became confrontational and argumentative. They generally rejected anything he said.

It became confrontational because Amir&co kept putting BD down even though they have nothing to do with it other than supply a codec. Members challenged Amir's opinion on BD as he kept misrepresenting what he said as fact, and in the main forum he won't get protection from the mods in the same way as he does in the insider thread. That is why he retreated to the insider thread. If he had stuck to telling us about the wonders of what HD DVD + VC-1/HDi could do then I imagine he would still be posting in the main sections of the forum.

wiki:Schadenfreude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude)

The problem is, people have ruined the privilege of having real discussions with the insiders in the rest of the forum.

Amir used to post down here all the time. But people had to be rude to him. People don't know how to argue on the merits without attacking him as a person. So, he no longer post down here for the most part.

There is a long line of people, people whom I respect by the way, who were more interested in destroying his credibility then talking about the issues. And those are the people that are responsible for him not posting here anymore.

Talkstr8t, (who describes his job as marketing, btw,) has a running thread down here. He spends most of his time talking about how HD DVD has lost the war, etc. But most people don't complain about his bashing of HD DVD, and Microsoft for that matter. So if that's what you're interested in, you can still talk to him some.

I am sure I have done in the past, it is not his place as a BDA member company (most likely Sun Microsystems) employee (especially if you are correct and he is a marketing whiz) to put down a competing product by misrepresentation and opinion. I just isn't right. Negative campaigning helps nobody, I just wish people would learn that.

It became confrontational because Amir&co kept putting BD down even though they have nothing to do with it other than supply a codec. Members challenged Amir's opinion on BD as he kept misrepresenting what he said as fact, and in the main forum he won't get protection from the mods in the same way as he does in the insider thread. That is why he retreated to the insider thread. If he had stuck to telling us about the wonders of what HD DVD + VC-1/HDi could do then I imagine he would still be posting in the main sections of the forum.

I'm discussing incidents from last year. Since then, Amir has stopped regularly posting down here, because people couldn't be polite to him. They were on a mission to destroy his personal reputation, and it was really no fun. You had to be here to know what I'm talking about, but it wasn't about substance.

I am sure I have done in the past, it is not his place as a BDA member company (most likely Sun Microsystems) employee (especially if you are correct and he is a marketing whiz) to put down a competing product by misrepresentation and opinion. I just isn't right. Negative campaigning helps nobody, I just wish people would learn that.

I don't know if he is a marketing wiz or not, but if you click on Talklstr8t's profile, it used to say his occupation was marketing. He may have changed it, I don't know.

So if that's what you're interested in, you can still talk to him some.
Whoa, guy.

You and I have a better, rivalry relationship than that, skogan. No need to get smart.

I'm sorry that Amir got his feeling hurt. Too bad his skin is not so thick.

Any post can get reported and the mods have quick, trigger fingers for this kind of crap, which, of course is a very good thing. And I'm betting that Amir has the ingore feature enabled, like the rest of us.

I don't think Amir is, generally prone to FUD, as are some others. But that doesn't mean he should be immune to dispute.

I especially don't think insiders should be allowed to disparage their rival's stuff without fear of reprisal. Anyone should be allowed to challenge them.

JMHO

wiki:Schadenfreude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude)
You had to look that one up, Mark?

What, you don't watch the Simpsons? That's where I learned the word... from Lisa, of course. :D

I'm discussing incidents from last year. Since then, Amir has stopped regularly posting down here, because people couldn't be polite to him. They were on a mission to destroy his personal reputation, and it was really no fun. You had to be here to know what I'm talking about, but it wasn't about substance.

If you are the VP of a major MS division, then I am sure you have thicker skin than that, I do, say what you like about me, I don't give a flying f***. It is a bit difficult to destroy a man's personal reputation without actually knowing him, so I doubt it would even be possible to do that here on AVSF. But if as you say it had no real substance and was just a big personal attack, I can imagine it isn't nice, especially as he is posting here under instruction from MS, he may not even want to do this if MS didn't tell him. I know if it was my job that lead to the personal attacks, then I wouldn't stand for it. If it was what I said that was being attacked then, well I shouldn't have said it, or I would defend it.

Whoa, guy.

You and I have a better, rivalry relationship than that, skogan. No need to get smart.


Sorry, I didn't mean it personally. I just couldn't think of a good concluding sentence. That one kind of wrapped it all up for me. :)

I'm sorry that Amir got his feeling hurt. Too bad his skin is not so thick.

Any post can get reported and the mods have quick, trigger fingers for this kind of crap, which, of course is a very good thing. And I'm betting that Amir has the ingore feature enabled, like the rest of us.

I don't think Amir is, generally proned to FUD, as are some others. But that doesn't mean he should be immune to dispute.

I especially don't think insiders should be allowed to disparage their rival's stuff without fear of reprisal. Anyone should be allowed to challenge them.

JMHO

My point is, we used to be able to dispute him. But people weren't content with that. They wanted a forum to call him names and attack him personally. After awhile, there wasn't much of substance going on, it was just people trying to find a post from back in 2004 that they could use to call Amir a liar today. All of that may have been before you were a regular poster here, I'm not sure.

Believe me, it doesn't work having Amir post here. There will be many who can't stop themselves from attacking him personally. We tried to make it work, but ultimately, we as a forum are not mature enough to be polite in our disagreements. We ran Amir off because people were not content with a civil disagreement. Character assassins had to make it their personal vendetta to ruin attack him rather than his post.

Remember, for the first two years, there was no insiders thread. That thread was added for a reason.

I don't know if he is a marketing wiz or not, but if you click on Talklstr8t's profile, it used to say his occupation was marketing. He may have changed it, I don't know.
BTW, I've seen PLENTY of attacks on Talkstr8t. They may have all been warranted, I don't know. Still, I never saw him crying to the mods about it or anything. I guess he has thicker skin.

You had to look that one up, Mark?

What, you don't watch the Simpsons? That's where I learned the word... from Lisa, of course. :D

Haha, me too :)

BTW, I've seen PLENTY of attacks on Talkstr8t. They may have all been warranted, I don't know. Still, I never saw him crying to the mods about it or anything. I guess he has thicker skin.

He is anonymous though, so nothing he says in retaliation will not be gone over with a fine tooth comb at Sun HQ, as will be done with Amir's posts at MS HQ.

I don't think XXXX is, generally prone to FUD, as are some others. But that doesn't mean he should be immune to dispute.

I especially don't think insiders should be allowed to disparage their rival's stuff without fear of reprisal. Anyone should be allowed to challenge them.

JMHO

Well after buying two A1 players, the above insider put me off so bad over time, I bought a Sony BD player (STB). I enjoy both types of players.

Call it a silent vote. Needless to say this is only my opinion. :)

come on guys, when has sony ever steared us wrong and sold us a technology that didn't last...(sarcasm)

come on guys, when has sony ever steared us wrong and sold us a technology that didn't last...(sarcasm)

Get a grip, this is the type of post that is giving AVSF such a bad name all over the internet at the moment. There is just no need for it.

I'm discussing incidents from last year. Since then, Amir has stopped regularly posting down here, because people couldn't be polite to him. They were on a mission to destroy his personal reputation, and it was really no fun. You had to be here to know what I'm talking about, but it wasn't about substance.

Indeed.

Get a grip, this is the type of post that is giving AVSF such a bad name all over the internet at the moment. There is just no need for it.

Great one Max :D

Sorry, I didn't mean it personally. I just couldn't think of a good concluding sentence. That one kind of wrapped it all up for me. :)
Accepted. ;)

My point is, we used to be able to dispute him. But people weren't content with that. They wanted a forum to call him names and attack him personally. After awhile, there wasn't much of substance going on, it was just people trying to find a post from back in 2004 that they could use to call Amir a liar today. All of that may have been before you were a regular poster here, I'm not sure.

Believe me, it doesn't work having Amir post here. There will be many who can't stop themselves from attacking him personally. We tried to make it work, but ultimately, we as a forum are not mature enough to be polite in our disagreements. We ran Amir off because people were not content with a civil disagreement. Character assassins had to make it their personal vendetta to ruin attack him rather than his post.

Remember, for the first two years, there was no insiders thread. That thread was added for a reason.
Well that kind of behavior is certainly unacceptable.

For the record, I took a break from the HD optical forums for awhile and returned a few months back. Amir was still posting pretty heavily in the general forums, then.

I, of course did not participate in his assassination, so I must've missed it. I'm glad I didn't have to see that.

Regardless, it is not cool that an "insider" can post FUD about the other guy without challenge. It's like democracy; sometimes it can be really ugly, but it's better than the alternative.

BTW, I've seen PLENTY of attacks on Talkstr8t. They may have all been warranted, I don't know. Still, I never saw him crying to the mods about it or anything. I guess he has thicker skin.

I've challanged him on several things where he contradicted himslef or generally known info. I tried not to be over the top. I give him credit for dealing with it.

Not to say Amir didn't, but It seemed to me the "piling upon" was several-to-one in Amir's disfavor.

His posting in just the Insiders thread was fairly recent and IIRC this was generally attributed to his sickness. Maybe it's a recent policy thing for behind the scenes schenanigansmaybe he has inside scoop that Universal is going neutral and/or HD DVD's day are numbered and he's abandoning the sinking ship? ;) The attitude that all codecs stink but VC1 has certainly been proven ludicrous by the numerous high quality BD releses the last few months.

In any case, while it certainly stinks, these boards are NOT a democracy (I'm not paying for my posting priveleges, after all), but fairness on both sides would be nice (and there still seems a favoritism to HD DVD prevalent here).

His posting in just the Insiders thread was fairly recent and IIRC this was generally attributed to his sickness. Maybe it's a recent policy thing for behind the scenes schenanigansmaybe he has inside scoop that Universal is going neutral and/or HD DVD's day are numbered and he's abandoning the sinking ship? ;) The attitude that all codecs stink but VC1 has certainly been proven ludicrous by the numerous high quality BD releses the last few months.

In any case, while it certainly stinks, these boards are NOT a democracy (I'm not paying for my posting priveleges, after all), but fairness on both sides would be nice (and there still seems a favoritism to HD DVD prevalent here).

We used to not have an insiders thread. In those days, he was a very active poster in all threads. Anyone could challenge him if they wanted. But people couldn't do it politely. They coudln't just disagree, they had to accuse him of duplicity. The very reason the insiders thread was created was to allow insiders to avoid all the personal attacks they get out here.

The rules there are strict there, but they have to be. If not, it turns into another smear campaign. So now, you can ask your question, but you are no longer allowed to joust with them. You ask, they answer, and that's it.

We can't now complain about not being able to challenge Amir. We are the ones who ruined that opportunity.

In any case, while it certainly stinks, these boards are NOT a democracy (I'm not paying for my posting priveleges, after all), but fairness on both sides would be nice (and there still seems a favoritism to HD DVD prevalent here).
Well this is a minor point, but if read carefully, I didn't say these boards are a democracy; not even "like" a democracy.

My point was to make an analogy about the ugliness of allowing members to challenge each other. It can get ugly, just like democracy can, but the alternative is worse.... i.e., the alternative of allowing insiders to post whatever, baseless attacks on their opposition they wish, without challenge. IMO, that should not be allowed on a "Science" forum such as this.

I believe your confusion was caused by my mistake in using an analogy that was a little too analogous. :)

My point is, we used to be able to dispute him. But people weren't content with that. They wanted a forum to call him names and attack him personally. After awhile, there wasn't much of substance going on, it was just people trying to find a post from back in 2004 that they could use to call Amir a liar today. All of that may have been before you were a regular poster here, I'm not sure.

Believe me, it doesn't work having Amir post here. There will be many who can't stop themselves from attacking him personally. We tried to make it work, but ultimately, we as a forum are not mature enough to be polite in our disagreements. We ran Amir off because people were not content with a civil disagreement. Character assassins had to make it their personal vendetta to ruin attack him rather than his post.

Remember, for the first two years, there was no insiders thread. That thread was added for a reason.

I completely agree. Whatever compensation ( tangible or otherwise ) Amir may have received for participating in these forums couldn't possibly have been worth the endless litany of disrespectful, prosecutorial "queries" transparently designed solely to elicit a *Gotcha!*, rather than any helpful information.

but the alternative is worse.... i.e., the alternative of allowing insiders to post whatever, baseless attacks on their opposition they wish, without challenge. IMO, that should not be allowed on a "Science" forum such as this.



Two things to remember:

1. Amir isn't anonymous. If he post something false, he could be held accountable. Both legally and professionally, there is a penalty for baseless accusations against the competition.

2. The other insiders are free to respond to him. There are several Blu-ray folks that post here, and others that are simply sympathetic to Blu-ray. So it's not as though Amir isn't contested.

So it's not as though the BDA is at a disadvantage here.

We used to not have an insiders thread. In those days, he was a very active poster in all threads. Anyone could challenge him if they wanted. But people couldn't do it politely. They coudln't just disagree, they had to accuse him of duplicity. The very reason the insiders thread was created was to allow insiders to avoid all the personal attacks they get out here.

The rules there are strict there, but they have to be. If not, it turns into another smear campaign. So now, you can ask your question, but you are no longer allowed to joust with them. You ask, they answer, and that's it.

We can't now complain about not being able to challenge Amir. We are the ones who ruined that opportunity.
It appears that, as far as the mods are concern, the discussion is not up for debate; so this is just academic, at best. Nothing is likely to change, and maybe it shouldn't.

However, if an insider contradicts himself, especially in regard to statements made about his competition, any member should be allowed to question that. If no satisfactory answer is given, more questions should be allowed.

Again, JMHO

However, if an insider contradicts himself, especially in regard to statements made about his competition, any member should be allowed to question that. If no satisfactory answer is given, more questions should be allowed.

Again, JMHO


If we could do it politely, I would agree.


But we have proven that we can't.

Right. The only problem some people have is that their posts are being deleted when they try to hold him 'accountable' or contest his claims. Obviously, trolling, etc should be dealt with and the moderators are generally quite good and even handed compared to other forums I frequent, but I'm thinking of Richard Paul, in particular who's had some posts deleted that i thought were quite fair. But then, that's opinions for you. Everyone's got one... and noone wants to see the other guys.


Well this is a minor point, but if read carefully, I didn't say these boards are a democracy; not even "like" a democracy.

My point was to make an analogy about the ugliness of allowing members to challenge each other. It can get ugly, just like democracy can, but the alternative is worse....


I agree entirely, actually. My post was not in response to yours, specifically, but rather general blathering. ;)

It appears that, as far as the mods are concern, the discussion is not up for debate; so this is just academic, at best. Nothing is likely to change, and maybe it shouldn't.

However, if an insider contradicts himself, especially in regard to statements made about his competition, any member should be allowed to question that. If no satisfactory answer is given, more questions should be allowed.

Again, JMHO

The problem with that is the current furore we have over the AVC vs VC-1 crap. It is time to let it go, yet many on this forum won't do so, and another problem is that Amir won't let it go either, and he keeps hammering the same nail into the wrong hole along with a bunch of members. This is just a recent example, I am sure there have been more.

The problem with that is the current furore we have over the AVC vs VC-1 crap. It is time to let it go, yet many on this forum won't do so, and another problem is that Amir won't let it go either, and he keeps hammering the same nail into the wrong hole along with a bunch of members. This is just a recent example, I am sure there have been more.


.............as in the real world, clearly discernible advantages of lossless audio?...... The space constraints which surely must have resulted in its' lack of inclusion on the KK release? There are spurious arguments repeated ad nauseum, and red herrings aplenty, on both sides of this debate. Having said that, at least Amir always included a smilie, and was unremittingly good humored in his repartee. Can the same be said of his challengers?

If he post something false, he could be held accountable. Both legally and professionally, there is a penalty for baseless accusations against the competition.
Well then he should avoid comment on the opposition as he has clearly made a false statement here.

In no case does it go down to a single pixel as VC-1 does.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9938923&&#post9938923

After, again reviewing Richard Paul's gripe and Ron's response, I found a discrepancy. Here's the first few lines of Ron's response leaving out the technical mumbo jumbo...

Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm
Unfortunately it does not mean that. AVC will either use 2 pixels on either side of a block edge or 3 pixels. It picks one or the other based on level of gradient. In no case does it go down to a single pixel as VC-1 does.
That's incorrect. H.264 has the option of only filtering a single pixel on each block edge. Just read the specification (I've used bold red text to show the case where only one pixel on each side of the block is filtered):
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9935078&&#post9935078

Then we get Amir's response, later down the road.

Ron, appreciate you chiming in. It is great to have another compression expert to interact with on these topics . And sorry for the late reply. Had to go back to getting some business done while here.

Anyway, your objection is somewhat valid wrt to wording of the last statement I made, but not relative to the actual argument . So let me state that more clearly. There is no way to force AVC to use single pixel filtering as VC-1 uses.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9941753&&#post9941753

Now kudos to Amir for stating "that more clearly." However, he "clearly" contradicted himself. I'll put the three statements right next to each other.

In no case does it go down to a single pixel as VC-1 does.
That's incorrect. H.264 has the option of only filtering a single pixel on each block edge.
Anyway, your objection is somewhat valid wrt to wording of the last statement I made, but not relative to the actual argument . So let me state that more clearly. There is no way to force AVC to use single pixel filtering as VC-1 uses.

If you read the full response from Amir, it is clear that AVC CAN do one pixel, if the conditions are right.

Disparaging the opposition in a public forum is a slippery slope. You'd better be right the first time, IMO.

.............as in the real world, clearly discernible advantages of lossless audio?...... The space constraints which surely must have resulted in its' lack of inclusion on the KK release? There are spurious arguments repeated ad nauseum, and red herrings aplenty, on both sides of this debate. Having said that, at least Amir always included a smilie, and was unremittingly good humored in his repartee. Can the same be said of his challengers?

Depends on the challenger ;).

BTW, I've seen PLENTY of attacks on Talkstr8t. They may have all been warranted, I don't know. Still, I never saw him crying to the mods about it or anything. I guess he has thicker skin.
Personal attacks are never justifiable. Once you get your hands around that the rest falls neatly into place. Courtesy is for everyone. But some of you seem to be suggesting that this is not the case.

For some of you, courtesy seems to be strictly reserved for those who share your values and point of view. That smacks of politics, the endeavor of the intellectually bankrupt. And here I thought AVS was a technical forum. Silly me.

--Jerome

Personal attacks are never justifiable. Once you get your hands around that the rest falls neatly into place. Courtesy is for everyone. But some of you seem to be suggesting that this is not the case.

For some of you, courtesy seems to be strictly reserved for those who share your values and point of view. That smacks of politics, the endeavor of the intellectually bankrupt. And here I thought AVS was a technical forum. Silly me.

--Jerome

Silly you indeed! :D :D :D

Right. The only problem some people have is that their posts are being deleted when they try to hold him 'accountable' or contest his claims. Obviously, trolling, etc should be dealt with and the moderators are generally quite good and even handed compared to other forums I frequent, but I'm thinking of Richard Paul, in particular who's had some posts deleted that i thought were quite fair. But then, that's opinions for you. Everyone's got one... and noone wants to see the other guys.
His deleted post looked pretty benign to me.

I agree entirely, actually. My post was not in response to yours, specifically, but rather general blathering. ;)
Roger.

at least Amir always included a smilie, and was unremittingly good humored in his repartee.
This is true. It's funny how emoticons can make all the difference, but they often do. I don't have any issues with Amir, myself. I think he is generally very straight-up and tame as HD optical insiders go. There are many others, on either side that are not so tame.

My only issue is with the ability of members to challenge false statements, which, as near as I can tell, has occurred here.

Personal attacks are never justifiable. Once you get your hands around that the rest falls neatly into place. Courtesy is for everyone. But some of you seem to be suggesting that this is not the case.

For some of you, courtesy seems to be strictly reserved for those who share your values and point of view. That smacks of politics, the endeavor of the intellectually bankrupt. And here I thought AVS was a technical forum. Silly me.

--Jerome

"Spoken" like a true gentleman. But....... what do you care about arguments over the relative merits of storage capacities measured in mere GB? :confused:............................................Nice to see you back. ;)

Silly you indeed! :D :D :D
Yeah! What WERE you thinking?

Now go to He11!!! :D :D :D

Disparaging the opposition in a public forum is a slippery slope. You'd better be right the first time, IMO.

Come now! If he'd literally been "disparaging" the opposition, there would be legal recourse against him, as he participates here in an official capacity. Those who use disclaimers in their signatures are not so constrained.

Some insiders get more protection than others. Look at this now classic post that is a response to Dolby employee Roger Dressler:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=8186418

This childish and insulting post even manages to get in seven uses of the word "Blurray". That's quite an accomplishment! And, of course, the post has not been deleted.

BD supporters going negative again

Come now! If he'd literally been "disparaging" the opposition, there would be legal recourse against him, as he participates here in an official capacity. Those who use disclaimers in their signatures are not so constrained.
Well that word could be taken a little strong and that was not my intention. However, it is not far from accurate.

dictionary.com

#2. to bring reproach or discredit upon; lower the estimation of

Though it may not have been intentional, falsely representing his rival's codec, in an attempt to show why their's is worse than his own, certainly sounds like "lowering the estimation of" to me.

But WTF do I know! ;)

Some insiders get more protection than others. Look at this now classic post that is a response to Dolby employee Roger Dressler:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=8186418

This childish and insulting post even manages to get in seven uses of the word "Blurray". That's quite an accomplishment! And, of course, the post has not been deleted.

For some reason rdjam seems to have the protection of the mods, I can't see why personally he is just a downright troll IMO. It could be that he gets more lee-way because he is a paying member where most of us are not (I would but I am pretty broke atm, the life of a college student :)).

BD supporters going negative again

Where, this is a pretty balanced discussion I would say.

Well that word could be taken a little strong and that was not my intention. However, it is not far from accurate.

dictionary.com

#2. to bring reproach or discredit upon; lower the estimation of

Though it may not have been intentional, falsely representing his rival's codec, in an attempt to show why their's is worse than his own, certainly sounds like "lowering the estimation of" to me.

But WTF do I know! ;)

This is the relevant entry:

1 : the publication of false and injurious statements that are derogatory of another's property, business, or product called also business disparagement commercial disparagement disparagement of property slander of goods trade libel
2 : SLANDER OF TITLE

(emphasis added for clarity)

For some reason rdjam seems to have the protection of the mods, I can't see why personally he is just a downright troll IMO. It could be that he gets more lee-way because he is a paying member where most of us are not (I would but I am pretty broke atm, the life of a college student :)).

I can't speak for rdjam, but his posting style speaks for itself, doesn't it? I don't believe lurkers could reasonably be expected to mistake his colorfully stated opinions for facts. On the other hand, some of the deleted posts under discussion, exceeded the threshold of what I would define as harassment.

Where, this is a pretty balanced discussion I would say.
Hmm, because it only (edit) criticizes HD supporters?

As opposed to athletic supporters... :D

--Jerome

Hmm, because it only (edit) criticizes HD supporters?

I think we have all criticised both sides and the mods and the insiders, pretty much everyone equally, not just HD DVD fans, so stop feeling so persecuted.

Some insiders get more protection than others. Look at this now classic post that is a response to Dolby employee Roger Dressler:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=8186418

This childish and insulting post even manages to get in seven uses of the word "Blurray". That's quite an accomplishment! And, of course, the post has not been deleted.

For the record, Here was my response to rdjam's posts:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8196406&&#post8196406

Nice to see you back.
It's good to see you too.

Thanks.

--Jerome

For the record, Here was my response to rdjam's posts:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8196406&&#post8196406
Yeah, I remember that. Fortunately, Roger seems to have thick enough skin.

Great discussion

I wish all the threads in the format battle forums were like this

Peace

This is the relevant entry:

1 : the publication of false and injurious statements that are derogatory of another's property, business, or product called also business disparagement commercial disparagement disparagement of property slander of goods trade libel
2 : SLANDER OF TITLE

(emphasis added for clarity)
Well "relevant" is very subjective.

However, since this is, obviously so important to you, I'm willing to capitulate. Offer me some alternate words or phrases that encapsulate my obvious intent and I'll see if I can pick one.

Also, anytime you would like to disprove the content of my post, i.e. my claim of false statement on Amir's part, vs. correcting my vocabulary, I'm all ears.

Yeah, I remember that. Fortunately, Roger seems to have thick enough skin.
But should one's willingness to take verbal abuse in stride dictate the standard of behavior here?

I think there is a certain standard of civility and decorum that we all should aspire to. One does not need to assail another's sense of honor, their personal integrity, or impugn their motives to challenge the factual accuracy of their statements.

While giving someone the 3rd degree might make for interesting TV drama, it really does not raise the level of meaningful participation here and does nothing to bring clarity to the discourse.

--Jerome

It's clear to me that the red line ends higher than the blue line.
29% PS3 > 28% HD Player/Recorder
Therefore, the red line is supposed to represent PS3 sales.
I don't think I've ever seen a line graph with years representing end years like this chart does, IMO it would be more intuitive for EOY totals if they used a bar chart.

Sure is a wacky chart. Hard to believe they get paid for putting these charts out

Rusty, agree. But if you look at the chart (labels can bve missplaced) the lines make sense if dates are end dates and blue is PS3

at the end of 2006 there was around 1M PS3, and 100k HD DVD+ BD and a bit under 100k add ons
at the end of 2007 8M PS3, a bit over 1M stand alones and 200k add ons makes sense
....

now I am just eyeing the graphs (and at that level the scale is to big to see what numbers were used. So give or take 100-200)

Well "relevant" is very subjective.

However, since this is, obviously so important to you, I'm willing to capitulate. Offer me some alternate words or phrases that encapsulate my obvious intent and I'll see if I can pick one.

Also, anytime you would like to disprove the content of my post, i.e. my claim of false statement on Amir's part, vs. correcting my vocabulary, I'm all ears.

The meaning of, and intentions behind, specific terminologies employed in public statements by official corporate representatives ( and others ) are the purview of attorneys who specialize in the litigation of issues relating to defamation, slander, etc. Amir's statements in the particular discussion of arcane technical minutia which you referenced, would not meet any legal definition of "disparagement". Nor, for that matter, do I believe they would conform to the meaning of the term as it's used in common vernacular English, ie:

1.To speak of in a slighting or disrespectful way; belittle. See Synonyms at decry.

So, in this instance, I think your use of the term "disparagement" is wholly inappropriate. Perhaps it wouldn't be, in another illustration you might or might not care to provide. BTW, ( since you asked ) If I wasn't feeling charitable, I might suggest that Amir was guilty of attempting to obfuscate the capabilities of an alternative codec.......through a lack of sufficient specificity. ;)

The link is in the news thread but I found

Cinram recorded fourth quarter and full-year high-definition disc revenue of $2.8 million and $5.6 million, respectively, following the June retail launch of both formats. We have replicated 180 HD-DVD and Blu-ray titles for our customers in North America since the launch.

this interesting so half their HD disk sales for the year were last quarter.

The meaning of, and intentions behind, specific terminologies employed in public statements by official corporate representatives ( and others ) are the purview of attorneys who specialize in the litigation of issues relating to defamation, slander, etc. Amir's statements in the particular discussion of arcane technical minutia which you referenced, would not meet any legal definition of "disparagement". Nor, for that matter, do I believe they would conform to the meaning of the term as it's used in common vernacular English, ie:

1.To speak of in a slighting or disrespectful way; belittle. See Synonyms at decry.

So, in this instance, I think your use of the term "disparagement" is wholly inappropriate. Perhaps it wouldn't be, in another illustration you might or might not care to provide. BTW, ( since you asked ) If I wasn't feeling charitable, I might suggest that Amir was guilty of attempting to obfuscate the capabilities of an alternative codec.......through a lack of sufficient specificity. ;)

Which legal definition of "disparagement" are you using?

To quote a law dictionary, it is "a false and injurious statement that discredits or detracts from the reputation of another's property, product, or business."

One could argue that his "non-specificity" (whether deliberate or not) is false, and injurious to the reputation of the competing codec, in this particular example.

But should one's willingness to take verbal abuse in stride dictate the standard of behavior here?

I think there is a certain standard of civility and decorum that we all should aspire to. One does not need to assail another's sense of honor, their personal integrity, or impugn their motives to challenge the factual accuracy of their statements.

While giving someone the 3rd degree might make for interesting TV drama, it really does not raise the level of meaningful participation here and does nothing to bring clarity to the discourse.

--Jerome
Agreed.

None of this was really in question. Though your points are extremely legitimate, IMO they do little to address the discussion at hand.

It is unfortunate that Richard Paul has a difficult time, on occasion operating with a high degree of grace. But he had a very valid point that was brushed aside and has still not been, properly addressed.

No one yet, has made a challenge to my statement earlier involving the quotes from Amir and Ron. I must admit I'm a little surprised. I often count on my friends here to help me see things that I may have missed. That's one of the beauties of this forum, IMO. Through honest debate, everyone can learn something, both from their allies and from their rivals.

To be honest, I could give a rat's a$$ about codecs. That horse is glue. But, of course it's not about that. It's about the ability on this forum for debate to be open and honest.

If insiders want protection, they should not be criticizing the competition, let alone speaking falsehoods about them. They should provide us with information about their product(s) and answer any reasonable question openly and honestly.

JMHO

P.S. Your discussion on decorum is long overdue, but it deserves its own thread.

If I wasn't feeling charitable, I might suggest that Amir was guilty of attempting to obfuscate the capabilities of an alternative codec.......through a lack of sufficient specificity. ;)
That's not good enough.

He flat-out used a false statement, categorically in a comparison between his and his competition's product with the intent to diminish the abilities of the competitions product and thereby further those of his own.

Which legal definition of "disparagement" are you using?

To quote a law dictionary, it is "a false and injurious statement that discredits or detracts from the reputation of another's property, product, or business."
That sounds about right to me. ;)

In fact, that is EXACTLY how I would describe Amir's statement!

Nice work, onanie. Much more succinct than my statement in the post above. Guess that's why I don't write law dictionaries.

OK, but that doesn't justify attitudes around here that are so confrontational that they get deleted.Actually any questioning of an insider or corrections offered by a non-insider gets deleted in the Industry Insiders thread. As such it isn't just the posts that aren't nice that get deleted.


Amir gave a full paper on the development of VC-1, and was roundly attacked on the 3 pixel issue, even though the discrepancy (if any) was already laid out in a factual manner.What Amir made was certainly a long post but that doesn't mean that it was completely factual. Read carefully what Sketcha posted (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9948369&&#post9948369).


The problem is, people have ruined the privilege of having real discussions with the insiders in the rest of the forum.

Amir used to post down here all the time. But people had to be rude to him. People don't know how to argue on the merits without attacking him as a person. So, he no longer post down here for the most part.No offense but that just isn't true. He decided to no longer post anywhere but the Industry Insiders thread while many other insiders continue to post in the rest of the forum. Amir made his own choice and honestly it is a pretty nice choice from what I can see. He can post anything he wants and the only ones that can debate what he posts is other insiders. Even than other insiders are discouraged from doing that.


It is unfortunate that Richard Paul has a difficult time, on occasion operating with a high degree of grace. But he had a very valid point that was brushed aside and has still not been, properly addressed.Agreed, on all points. Also honestly speaking you did do a much better job with your explanation (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9948369&&#post9948369) of it than I did.


No one yet, has made a challenge to my statement earlier involving the quotes from Amir and Ron.I think the reason there hasn't been any challenge to that is that quite frankly there is nothing to challenge in that post.

Now I would like to make a few things clear.

First off I want to make clear that I, myself have made ill-informed and contradictory statements. I know, I know, some of you are shocked. :p It can happen, but never was I allowed to get away with anything like that and I wouldn't want that kind of immunity.

I also want it known that I would find it a great loss if we were to lose Amir. He is an invaluable resource for HD optical. And opposing viewpoints are often the spur of knowledge. And I don't think his misstep, here was terribly horrific. I can certainly understand the mods' motivation to keep him happy. However, I believe unchecked falsehood, coupled with adverse motivation, is far from "AVScientific."

Again, JMHO

Rusty, agree. But if you look at the chart (labels can bve missplaced) the lines make sense if dates are end dates and blue is PS3

at the end of 2006 there was around 1M PS3, and 100k HD DVD+ BD and a bit under 100k add ons
at the end of 2007 8M PS3, a bit over 1M stand alones and 200k add ons makes sense
....

now I am just eyeing the graphs (and at that level the scale is to big to see what numbers were used. So give or take 100-200)Anthony, I agree that your interpretation of the U & S chart must be correct. The numbers just don't make any sense otherwise.

But you are looking at that chart with "educated eyes". You already know how many PS3s and HD players were sold by the end of 2006. You also probably have a very good idea of how many units will be sold thru the end of this year from other industry sources and other recent analyses. It also makes more sense that PS3 sales would taper off by 2010 as represented by the blue line as opposed to increasing as shown by the red line. Therefore you can interpret the chart to fit the current sales numbers and your own expectations.

But being that the use of end years is counter-intuitive (I think it was done deliberately to mislead the media in 2006 into believing that HD adoption was really going to take off right out of the gates) and that the lines are mislabeled (just poor quality control), I really don't have any faith in their actual sales projections or market penetration percentages.

Though your points are extremely legitimate, IMO they do little to address the discussion at hand.I beg to disagree. A recurring theme that has run through several posts made over the past two or three pages is that some people are displeased that they are unable to effectively challenge statements made by Amir in particular and other insiders in general in the Insider Q & A thread.

I am suggesting that if this is true then it is AVS Forum members who are responsible for the restrictions, caused by their own unwillingness or inability to exercise restraint in their exchanges with insiders and to keep the discourse civil.

How quickly people seem willing to forget that even the Insider Q & A thread had to be locked for a short time because it was getting out of hand.

It also strikes me as disingenuous when people hold Amir and other insiders to the highest possible standard and then evade responsibility for their own personal conduct by rationalizing their bad behavior. I have little sympathy for them, and in the end we are all diminished by it.

Do you really think that the moderators would implement these control measures were it not for all of the personal attacks on Amir and others? I seriously doubt they would find it necessary.

AVS Forum used to feature a Special Guest forum and would routinely invite key figures in the industry to come here for a Q & A session with the membership. It was really great to have these industry leaders here to pick their brains and get some insights into the future direction of our hobby and to learn about new products and technologies. But it was always a troubled forum and the guests frequently came under attack. One of the last notable special guests was Sam Runco, and it was particularly ugly. Unfortunately there was only so much a single moderator could do. It was not long after that sad episode that the Special Guest forum was gone. I don't know if it was because the forum membership made it an embarrassment to AVS Forum or if industry leaders were reluctant to come here and take a beating. I suspect it was a little bit of both. Regardless, we cut ourselves off from access to people who are shaping the future of the industry and that was a terrible loss.

--Jerome

But should one's willingness to take verbal abuse in stride dictate the standard of behavior here?


Every board has it's flair-ups, but with this stuff I guess some people labor under the impression they can manipulate outcomes by wearing others morale down.

I beg to disagree. A recurring theme that has run through several posts made over the past two or three pages is that some people are displeased that they are unable to effectively challenge statements made by Amir in particular and other insiders in general in the Insider Q & A thread.

I am suggesting that if this is true then it is AVS Forum members that are personally responsible for the restrictions, caused by their own unwillingness or inability to exercise restraint in their exchanges with insiders and to keep the discourse civil.

How quickly people seem willing to forget that even the Insider Q & A thread had to be locked for a short time because it was getting completely out of hand.

It also strikes me as disingenuous when people hold Amir and other insiders to the highest possible standard and then evade reponsibility for their own personal conduct by rationalizing their bad behavior. I have little sympathy for them, and in the end we are all dimished by it.

Do you really think that the moderators would implement these control measures were it not for all of the personal attacks on Amir and others? I seriously doubt they would find it necessary.

AVS Forum used to feature a Special Guest forum and would routinely invite key figures in the industry to come here for a Q & A session with the membership. It was really great to have these industry leaders here to pick their brains and get some insights into the future direction of our hobby and passion. But it was always a troubled forum and the guests frequently came under attack. One of the last notable special guests was Sam Runco, and it was particularly ugly. Unfortunately there was only so much a single moderator could do. It was not long after that sad episode that the Special Guest forum was gone. I don't know if it was because the forum membership made it an embarassment to AVS Forum or if industry leaders were reluctant to come here and take a beating. I suspect it was a little bit of both. Regardless, we cut ourselves off from access to people who are shaping the future of the industry. What a loss.

--Jerome

I guess I signed up to late for the good stuff. I used to refer ppl to avs now I am a little veary as the site has become flooded with childishness. :o

Then you might be misreading my post. I am not suggesting that the forum isn't a worthwhile place. If that were true then I would not bother to come here.

To reiterate, I am suggesting that it is the membership that has created some special challenges for our moderators and the industry insiders who participate here. The rest is fairly self explanatory.

--Jerome

To reiterate, I am suggesting that it is the membership that has created some special challenges for our moderators and the industry insiders who participate here. The rest is fairly self explanatory.What about sponsoring? Wasn't the AVS Forum party at the last CES sponsored in part by Microsoft? I'm not sure, I wasn't there. If true, theoretically speaking, that too could create some special challenges for our moderators.

On the other hand, it might not. Maybe Microsoft wanted everybody to have a great party, simple as that?

And hey, I would say the same thing if it was sponsored by Sony.

My general question is this: Can a science forum (like AVS), which is supposed to be a neutral ground for discussions, take sponsorships by companies which clearly has stakes in one side of these discussions?

My own answer would be yes, to a certain extent. AVS is a huge place, that covers lots of topics. In the case of MS sponsorship, HTPC, Xbox, HD DVD and others come to mind. So plenty of reasons for MS to support this place.

But, what happens if MS/Sony/Toshiba/Pioneer/Democrats/Republicans then try to leverage their "power" by influencing the mods in a certain direction? I don't believe it is happening, thank goodness, but I do think we should keep our eyes open, whenever we enter "neutral" ground anywhere on the net.

BTW, Amir finally answered my question on whether he thinks using MPEG2/AVC on Blu-ray makes visual transparency impossible. I would have thanked him over in the other thread, but we're not allowed to follow up, are we... (I've PM'ed him.)

It would be unfair to make a general characterization that way wrt to the experience viewers have. Clearly BD has some really good looking titles now, gaining praise from reviewers and consumers alike. So for these titles, and using the eyes of enthusiasts, I would say BD has achieved visual transparency.

If you are asking me what I personally think when looking at the overall portfolio of titles in BD, then I am left wondering how many of them could be improved with VC-1. It is just our nature to analyze the picture, thinking like a “human codec” (:)), spotting things that we know would stress MPEG-2 or AVC when it comes to visual transparency. Having said this, I have to be frank and say that it is unclear whether people could see the visual improvements from VC-1 over these other codecs in every title. What we see should not always be confused with what others see.

Even though Amir doesn't live here anymore, I would like to thank him for the response. I was actually very impressed with it. Firstly, he concedes that yes, there are visually transparent titles available on Blu-ray. Then he wonders how many Blu-ray titles would improve if VC-1 was used. A natural thought, I've had the same myself, and the answer is of course, yes, many would probably have benefitted from it. (Assuming enough time was spent on the title using the orginial codec). Thirdly, he wonders if untrained people would actually be able to see the differences on all titles if VC-1 was used. To me, that is confirmation that it is not the codec used that will matter to most people, but the actual encoding effort, if that makes sense..

Again, thanks Amir, for your candid response. Much appreciated.

But, what happens if MS/Sony/Toshiba/Pioneer/Democrats/Republicans then try to leverage their "power" by influencing the mods in a certain direction? I don't believe it is happening, thank goodness, but I do think we should keep our eyes open, whenever we enter "neutral" ground anywhere on the net.
I don't think it is happening either. One can always take exception to a specific action of a moderator I suppose, and I might not have agreed with them 100% of the time. But I do believe that in each and every case they are acting in what they believe is the best interest of AVS Forum and its membership, and I can hardly fault them for that.

As I said before, moderating here, especially in the HD format areas, seems to me to be a thankless and time consuming job. We are lucky to have them doing this difficult work.

--Jerome

Good morning

AVS mods are unpaid volunteers: we are separate from the owners of the site: I am format neutral and try to to be fair in what I do here

The Insider's thread is a special place that has its own set of rules born out of necessity: we know Insider's have a bias and an agenda- but we recognize the added value of having them post on AVS

I think Dr Don said it best:

"I feel it's time to post something I've been PM-ing to those who have had their posts deleted:

This thread is not a court of law. You're not a lawyer trying to catch someone in a lie or misstatement. Or badger them until they come around to your way of thinking. Take the answers the insiders give you and you do with them what you will. Questions. Answers. That's all that goes in that thread. I understand that the answers may come off as slanted. No surprise, there. Most of our insiders are admittedly not independent. You might not agree with the answers you get but this thread is not the place for challenging those answers. There is a whole forum where you can discuss it in an intelligent, non-bashing, non-confrontational way.

Ask your question. Get your answer. Move on. "


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9913249&&#post9913249

So please don't blame AVS or the mods for what goes on: this is a very unique format battle and it seems to bring out a lot of angst: we deal with it the best we can.

In reading through this thread since last night it proves we can have a pleasant and productive discussion :)

Which legal definition of "disparagement" are you using?

To quote a law dictionary, it is "a false and injurious statement that discredits or detracts from the reputation of another's property, product, or business."

One could argue that his "non-specificity" (whether deliberate or not) is false, and injurious to the reputation of the competing codec, in this particular example.

Apparently, you skimmed over post #5946, in which I included this definition:

1 : the publication of false and injurious statements that are derogatory of another's property, business, or product called also business disparagement commercial disparagement disparagement of property slander of goods trade libel
2 : SLANDER OF TITLE

Amir's original statement was made in a public forum. His "testimony" was open to "cross examination"; another expert "witness" called it into question, and the statement was subsequently qualified. No injurious statement was published in a widely disseminated periodical, and left unchallenged, therefore, no injury was suffered by any party.

Well then he should avoid comment on the opposition as he has clearly made a false statement here.. (clip)

Now kudos to Amir for stating "that more clearly." However, he "clearly" contradicted himself. I'll put the three statements right next to each other.

If you read the full response from Amir, it is clear that AVC CAN do one pixel, if the conditions are right.

Disparaging the opposition in a public forum is a slippery slope. You'd better be right the first time, IMO.

Thanks for summarizing the meat of that discussion. What I find disconcerting, in such a case, is, that we, the readers, would take away complete mis-info from the insider-post if someone like dr1394 was not around who had intimate knowledge of AVC specs.

In such a case, the damage would be more severe than if an insider was corrected a bit down the road, as happened here.

thanks to him for his fantastically detailed know-how. Much appreciated.

Apparently, you skimmed over post #5946, in which I included this definition:

1 : the publication of false and injurious statements that are derogatory of another's property, business, or product called also business disparagement commercial disparagement disparagement of property slander of goods trade libel
2 : SLANDER OF TITLE

Amir's original statement was made in a public forum. His "testimony" was open to "cross examination"; another expert "witness" called it into question, and the statement was subsequently qualified. No injurious statement was published in a widely disseminated periodical, and left unchallenged, therefore, no injury was suffered by any party.

Do you have any legal authorities you can cite in support of your conclusions on these points? Court cases, for example, or legal treatises?

That's not good enough.

He flat-out used a false statement, categorically in a comparison between his and his competition's product with the intent to diminish the abilities of the competitions product and thereby further those of his own.

That is one possible interpretation, and apparently the one you favor. It's equally possible that he was initially confused about this very specific capability, and after being called on it, did some technical research; finally returning to clarify/perform damage control. In any event, you're a long way from providing sufficient evidence to prove that his actions were a deliberate attempt to disparage a competing product.

Do you have any legal authorities you can cite in support of your conclusions on these points? Court cases, for example, or legal treatises?

Frankly, I don't feel like looking, but if you believe there's a case precedent in which statements made in a public forum were immediately called into question, but nonetheless, found to have been injurious, have at it.

Apparently, you skimmed over post #5946, in which I included this definition:

1 : the publication of false and injurious statements that are derogatory of another's property, business, or product called also business disparagement commercial disparagement disparagement of property slander of goods trade libel
2 : SLANDER OF TITLE

Amir's original statement was made in a public forum. His "testimony" was open to "cross examination"; another expert "witness" called it into question, and the statement was subsequently qualified. No injurious statement was published in a widely disseminated periodical, and left unchallenged, therefore, no injury was suffered by any party.

Imo, the legal logic above seems incorrect. Anyone with a law degree here?

'Publication' does not equate to or require wide dissemination, fwiu. Though, one might easily argue that disparaging AVC in the AVSforum during the 1st year of a high def optical war is fairly widely disseminated anyways, considering how small the early adopter market for optical high def is.

Also, whether the statement is refuted by an expert witness has nothing to do with whether it counts as dispragement or not. The witness helps prove the inaccuracy of the statement, either in the same public arena or in court. If he refutes it in the public arena before it reaches the courts, that does not absolve the statement-maker from legal consequnces, I think.

If the above were so, one could post most anything and get away with it cos eventually, some expert would be along on AVS to refute it, especially on the big money items like AVC etc. In the meantime, damage is caused or can be. That is what the law is intended to prevent.

Like someone said, when making a claim about a competing product, one better get it right first time.

In any event, you're a long way from providing sufficient evidence to prove that his actions were a deliberate attempt to disparage a competing product.
Does the law require intent to be proved? Not from what I read of the definition given. I may have misunderstood.

Frankly, I don't feel like looking, but if you believe there's a case precedent in which statements made in a public forum were immediately called into question, but nonetheless, found to have been injurious, have at it.

I am not the one who is making assertions about points of law and their application in a particular factual situation.

He obviously thought the best way he could damage Blu-ray and disparage the entire use of AVC was to highlight the lack of a 1 pixel versus 3 pixel limit in a specific process. :rolleyes:

In the course of a three page summary. And then make a correction. He misspoke or got clarification and then corrected it. Big freaken deal.

Notice the majority of what he said went unchallenged , even by the insiders that openly do it.

Amirm is a VP at Microsoft. He is the executive in charge of VC-1. Of course he is biased for it. Read what he says with that in mind. That's partially the reason he is identified as a insider, so one can openly understand he has a bias and can take that into account when evaluating what he says.

But consider what he does say that is never contested or is acknowledged to be accurate.

I have still seen people able to question Amirm or Talkstr8t or Paidgeek for a fact in question or ask for clarification if you seperate the question from a emotional or confrontational statement accusing him of lying.

He obviously thought the best way he could damage Blu-ray and disparage the entire use of AVC was to highlight the lack of a 1 pixel versus 3 pixel limit in a specific process. :rolleyes: .
Yeah, it made the front page in today's Washington Post. ;)

--Jerome

He obviously thought the best way he could damage Blu-ray and disparage the entire use of AVC was to highlight the lack of a 1 pixel versus 3 pixel limit in a specific process. :rolleyes:

I dont think anyone thinks his intent was to bring the AVC-edifice crashing down. Some of us find the mis-info unpalatable cos we care about the truth, whether wrt to a part or the whole of high def tech.

I, thus, respectfully disagree with the above sentiment cos it casts anyone who pursues the truth as having over-reacted. That is not the case at all. We wouldnt be here if we didnt want to know all the facts and nothing but the facts. That is why we get our news from AVS and not hardware mag or businessweek when it comes to high def.

Imo, every little bit counts (pun intended) and let's aim for accuracy all the way. When not sure, lets not make claims or at least, qualify them appropriately. Jmho.

He obviously thought the best way he could damage Blu-ray and disparage the entire use of AVC was to highlight the lack of a 1 pixel versus 3 pixel limit in a specific process. :rolleyes:


I admit that's weaker than saying "Blu-ray is MPEG-2 only." ;)

What about sponsoring? Wasn't the AVS Forum party at the last CES sponsored in part by Microsoft? I'm not sure, I wasn't there.
Yes the party was partially sponsored by Microsoft. And Toshiba. And Runco. And one or two other companies I can't remember.

Thanks to all of them. It was a great time.

I admit that's weaker than saying "Blu-ray is MPEG-2 only." ;) The point is that when he was in error, he was challenged and not only did the challenge stand, he corrected the information.

You can question his statements or his facts in the insider thread as a followup question if you don't do it in an a prosecutable tone. If you want information or clarification that one thing, if you just want to challenge or attack him that's another.

So it's a question of whether to reply,

"I'm not sure I agree with you a hundred percent on your police work, there, Lou"

or,

"Would that be a full-of-s*** statement?"

:D

The point is that when he was in error, he was challenged and not only did the challenge stand, he corrected the information.

You can question his statements or his facts in the insider thread as a followup question if you don't do it in an a prosecutable tone. If you want information or clarification that one thing, if you just want to challenge or attack him that's another.

One problem is that it is hard to know what exactly will be considered a prosecutorial tone. This sort of thing is sometimes called a "chilling" effect.

One problem is that it is hard to know what exactly will be considered a prosecutorial tone.
I'm not sure about that. It is only a problem for people who engage in agressive pursuit of their quarry and are on a mission to bag the big one (and I do not mean the truth). I would wager that most people here have a genuine understanding of the basic rules of civil discourse.

--Jerome

I'm not sure about that. It is only a problem for people who engage in agressive pursuit of their quarry and are on a mission to bag the big one (and I do not mean the truth). I would wager that most people here have a genuine understanding of the basic rules of civil discourse.

--Jerome

Well, I think I know how to engage in civil discourse but nevertheless I find myself hesitating about whether to post certain questions in the insiders thread for fear that the question will be viewed as prosecutorial.

If you have concerns that your questions might be perceived as prosecutory then they probably are.

Do you mean to suggest that there is no way for you to phrase your questions in a non-confrontational manner to ellicit the factual response, clarification, or opinion in which you were interested? I'm asking out of curiosity.

--Jerome

If you have concerns that your questions might be perceived as prosecutory then they probably are.

Do you mean to suggest that there is no way for you to phrase your questions in a non-confrontational manner to ellicit the factual response, clarification, or opinion in which you were interested? I'm asking out of curiosity.

--Jerome

I suppose I could phrase every question somewhat as follows: "You know, Mr. Insider, I think you're the smartest, most charming, kindest person in the world, and all you care about is making us posters at AVS as happy as you possibly can, and I know that you would never ever intentionally say anything that was untrue or misleading in any way, but..."

If I did that, I would probably feel somewhat comfortable that I would not be perceived as confrontational.

Now you're just being sarcastic. I was hoping you could muster something a little better than that. Being civil with someone that you have fundamental differences with is not easy, and it doesn't mean that your posts need to gush with false respect for someone.

What it does mean is that making personal attacks against one's honor, one's integrity, or one's motives is generally considered to be bad form. Anyone can do that without giving it much thought, and there sure has been a lot of that going on around here, to the benefit of no one. Though I am sure some have found it fairly entertaining.

--Jerome

What Amir made was certainly a long post but that doesn't mean that it was completely factual. Read carefully what Sketcha posted (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9948369&&#post9948369).

I'm not knowledgable in these matters, but the 1-pixel issue appears arguable. AVC can do 1-pixel, but it doesn't appear to be a standard option, or has some other characteristic that makes VC-1 experts view it differently. There was a lot of good information in that post but the anti-Amir forces around here attack one amibiguous point as proof that they should be free to attack the experts. Some BD supporters should look deeply into their souls to make sure they aren't simply prejudiced against HD and its proponents. IMO

I beg to disagree. A recurring theme that has run through several posts made over the past two or three pages is that some people are displeased that they are unable to effectively challenge statements made by Amir in particular and other insiders in general in the Insider Q & A thread.

I am suggesting that if this is true then it is AVS Forum members who are responsible for the restrictions, caused by their own unwillingness or inability to exercise restraint in their exchanges with insiders and to keep the discourse civil.

How quickly people seem willing to forget that even the Insider Q & A thread had to be locked for a short time because it was getting out of hand.

It also strikes me as disingenuous when people hold Amir and other insiders to the highest possible standard and then evade responsibility for their own personal conduct by rationalizing their bad behavior. I have little sympathy for them, and in the end we are all diminished by it.

Do you really think that the moderators would implement these control measures were it not for all of the personal attacks on Amir and others? I seriously doubt they would find it necessary.

AVS Forum used to feature a Special Guest forum and would routinely invite key figures in the industry to come here for a Q & A session with the membership. It was really great to have these industry leaders here to pick their brains and get some insights into the future direction of our hobby and to learn about new products and technologies. But it was always a troubled forum and the guests frequently came under attack. One of the last notable special guests was Sam Runco, and it was particularly ugly. Unfortunately there was only so much a single moderator could do. It was not long after that sad episode that the Special Guest forum was gone. I don't know if it was because the forum membership made it an embarrassment to AVS Forum or if industry leaders were reluctant to come here and take a beating. I suspect it was a little bit of both. Regardless, we cut ourselves off from access to people who are shaping the future of the industry and that was a terrible loss.

--Jerome
I don't think I addressed your points quite correctly. I think it's clear that the conduct issue is a deeper one than the issue at hand, here. There is no doubt that the tone of AVS has changed since the format war began, well, at least within the specific, format war boards.

Fortunately I still find the ability to discuss non-format war issues elsewhere on AVS with the same level of decorum as always.

But I'm right there with ya'. In fact I made an, albeit feeble attempt to find solutions not too long ago to Kosty. He was able to bring me around to the fact that the mods are doing a bang-up job with their cleanup duties. To paraphrase BSG, "Thank the Mods!"

Now you're just being sarcastic. I was hoping you could muster something a little better than that. Being civil with someone that you have fundamental differences with is not easy, and it doesn't mean that your posts need to gush with false respect for someone.

What it does mean is that making personal attacks against one's honor, one's integrity, or one's motives is generally considered to be bad form. Anyone can do that without giving it much thought, and there sure has been a lot of that going on around here, to the benefit of no one. Though I am sure some have found it fairly entertaining.

--Jerome

I don't dispute the proposition that there are people posting here who choose to be confrontational. The very simple point that I have been trying to make is that someone who is not trying to be confrontational runs the risk of being perceived as being confrontational simply by trying to get a particular point answered.

If you want to see real technical bashing of opponents, go look at the lawyer-written, engineer-backed submissions to the FCC on any new technology. It is brutal, but the recipient has enough time (if he has the money) to refute any point in detail. Even so, many of the technical facts are "stretched"

Here we operate in real time, so comments and responses aren't always rigorous or well considered. Let's keep it informal, friendly and communicative.

In reading through this thread since last night it proves we can have a pleasant and productive discussion :)
Yeah, as long as we can blame the mods for our own problems. :D

I know you weren't asking for it, but I don't think we thank you mods enough. I've done it several times in PMs, but those should get transferred over to the public arena.

The only issue I have with Dr. Don's statement is he does not address what should happen if someone makes an outright, false statement about the competitors product. To me, that's a bit more than "slanted."

However, I am content to have members bring such issues over here to this thread so it can be discussed further, hopefully in a respectable manner as, I believe it has been in this case. Are you glad you got my sanction? ;) :D

Carry on, Mark. :)