This thread is intended for general discussions of the format battle



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Originally Posted by David Bott
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Originally Posted by markrubin
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Please keep the discussions civil and technical in nature

Thanks mark!!

Let me establish the tone...

OMFG the format war SUKKZZZ!!!1111

How was that? ;)

Thanks mark!!

Let me establish the tone...

OMFG the format war SUKKZZZ!!!1111

How was that? ;)FORMAT WAR RULZZZZ - YOU'VE BEEN PWNNZZRRD! :D

I really don't know where the HD DVD marketing dollars are going, if there are any. The Blu-Ray strategy seems to be everywhere at this point: live radio reads during talk shows, ads in magazines (Popular Mechanics, Dec.), Television spots on various channels, etc.
Blu-Ray is racking up the touches to the consumers and I have been unable to see any effort from HD DVD.

Have I just missed it?

I really don't know where the HD DVD marketing dollars are going, if there are any. The Blu-Ray strategy seems to be everywhere at this point: live radio reads during talk shows, ads in magazines (Popular Mechanics, Dec.), Television spots on various channels, etc.
Blu-Ray is racking up the touches to the consumers and I have been unable to see any effort from HD DVD.

Have I just missed it?

Nope you haven't. Coz there ain't any. Big games need big money brotha !!

If you ain't got the green, you ain't got the game.

Yep - the format war sucks! :)

Let's end it by getting more movies on HD DVD!

Yep - the format war sucks! :)

Let's end it by getting more movies on HD DVD!

I'd agree to that if HD will announce some more titles to be released. I only see about 3 that I want out of the 20 announced so far

Oh, I thought that someone who was a General in the format battle was posting here... A Sony VP, a Toshiba VP...

Well CNBC featured a story about how EVD might trump both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. But then at the end, they said "if they could get content support." :D

Read another story in the WSJ just the other day where CEA was cited as predicting 30 million HDTVs or 30% household penetration by the end of this year.

I really don't know where the HD DVD marketing dollars are going, if there are any. The Blu-Ray strategy seems to be everywhere at this point: live radio reads during talk shows, ads in magazines (Popular Mechanics, Dec.), Television spots on various channels, etc.
Blu-Ray is racking up the touches to the consumers and I have been unable to see any effort from HD DVD.

Have I just missed it?

Yeah, I think you may just be missing it.

This is the 2nd post I've seen refer to the Dec. Popular Mechanics magazine as if it were some sort of major problem for HD DVD. Has anyone seen the Jan/Feb issue of Premiere (with Spidey 3 on the cover)? Ads in there, plus a contest to win a player? Men's Health -- ads in the magazine and on the web site. I'm sure there are dozens of other magazines with HD DVD ads currently as well.

I've not only seen a Toshiba HD DVD commercial recently, but I've also seen the ads for individual big releases (Superman Returns, Miami Vice) mention HD DVD at the end.


Is it a huge ad blitz? Probably not. But I can't say that I've seen more BD ads than HD DVD. It's been about equal... and probably leaning more toward HD if I count banner ads on various web sites that I frequent.

Everybody support HD DVD!!! Thanks... :o

Not much point in advertising something you don't have to sell! Where I am the big box stores haven't had one HD DVD player to sell since launch. Blu-Ray is everywhere, but not selling much. Toshiba's biggest problem, IMO, is not having the product to sell - not having as much studio support was bad enough, but not getting product into consumers hands is lethal. If there is going to be a real format war, as opposed to a skirmish, then some more manufacturers are going to have to come on board and pretty fast. If a consumer wants to support HD DVD but can't find a player and so buys a BR player instead then this game is over. I had to run from box store to box store in Tampa last spring to get my hands on an open box HD DVD player - in other words finding one of these things was a lot of work.

Momentum (perception) is ererything, though it does shift back and forth. My advice to Toshiba is simply this: 1) get the product out there; 2) turn the screws on the BR only studios to go neutral (use some of MS's money if need be); 3) buy space in the big box stores and pay them to promote the product; 4) get other manufacturers involved and quickly; and 5) get Universal to sell only HD DVD combos at a regular DVD price (so we can rent them anywhere and non HD DVD owners will buy them and become HD DVD owners down the road). If Toshiba isn't working hard on these things then they're wasting everybody's time and money and BR wins by default.

Its hard to believe that with so much against it that HD DVD is still presently in the race - says something for the product.

Cheers,

Grant

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

:)

You know, I'd love it if the studios took that attitude. That would solve the only issue that I currently have with my format of choice. ;)

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

I'd ask Fox, Disney and Universal the same thing. ;)

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

The answer is obvious: because money doesn't grow on trees (thank you, dad!). The moment we buy hardware and software from a format, we invest in it. So, after 'putting your money where your mouth is,' the logical next step is 'putting your mouth where your money is.'

This goes beyond the LCD vs plasma arguments. After all, if suddenly it is decided that plasma is obsolete and needs to die, your plasma screen will continue to operate happily and unimpeded for years. However, if Format X dies, what you'll have left is a big ugly fat f***er of a DVD player (and not even multiregion at that), which you probably won't throw away only because you have several dozen movies that will play on that deck only. And vice versa.

So we all want the best format to win. And of course, each of us has chosen the best format in existence. Who's to prove us wrong?

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

Believe it or not... I kinda am. I've ony bought one, but it's because that's what my budget would allow, but I'd much rather not have to pay 2X or players, or have to forego some titles.

So, here are some gripes (aka debate fodder) about the situataion in general:

- Player Prices: The need to come down, and eventually will... HD DVD has the lead here, but hopefully lots of CE support will help BR as well. And player refinement can hopefully get us to sub-$300 players soon.

- Interactivity support: In my opinion the BDA has botched this by not really communicating what's going on with profiles to the general public. HDDVD has their act together moreso, but I wish they had some game plan for interactivity that didn't assume 60i output (see below). Both sides will need updates for fixes... but that's not a slam on either in my opinion.

-24p support: BDA has their act together better on this. I hope Sony's player applies the appropriate pressure on both sides to make this a checklist item. That having been said HDDVD's greater flexabilty in mix-N-match frametrates for vrious streams on the disc also makes this issue stickier. (My belief: Follow the primary feature framerate if your display supports it. PiP and IME should be frame-doubled/-decimated as need be to match)

- Codec support: BDA/studios needs to get over it and simply select the codec that firstly provides the best A/V experience, and secondly maximizes the file size for usage in connected environments. HD DVD has been more consistent here.

- AACS/MC/MMC: C'mon guys.. finsih the dang thing and let us have it. Both sides are at the mercy of the interim agreement.

That's all I can think of for the moment...

What I REALLY want is for the format battle to go on just long enough to competitively drive prices down and feature sets up, and then one side can tank and we can all choose a single format and get all our movies! ;)

The answer is obvious: because money doesn't grow on trees (thank you, dad!). The moment we buy hardware and software from a format, we invest in it. So, after 'putting your money where your mouth is,' the logical next step is 'putting your mouth where your money is.'



I disagree. I think the next logical step would be to watch HD movies, not frequent a message board to argue about formats. I don't agree that arguing about this stuff is logical.

I disagree. I think the next logical step would be to watch HD movies, not frequent a message board to argue about formats. I don't agree that arguing about this stuff is logical.

Hmmm

he may have a point here:

everyone stop posting and go watch an HD movie on your fav optical disc format :D

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

In the long run, we'd be better off if one format wins and support consolidates around one format. That is why DVD was successful. Imagine if Sony and Philips didn't compromise just before the DVD was launched.

In the short run, I would admit the war has pushed both sides to step up their game, whether in pushing down prices or in the backlash Sony Pictures have gotten. Plus Blu-Ray should know they can't be complacent and take their time with BD-50, BD-Live or integrating advanced codecs.

But really, we need to let the market judge a winner sooner rather than later so that studios can concentrate on releasing content for one instead of dribbling out releases tentatively. One format will help with economies of scale for component suppliers and the overall HW supply chain.

I'm pulling for Blu-Ray to win because of greater capacity, greater bandwidth and better writable support. Plus it's closer to getting universal (not Universal ;)) support. I also believe that studios need to target BD50 for their encodes rather than targeting for HD-DVD-DL and using it for both formats.

However, I will accept HD-DVD if it gains broad market acceptance and gets universal HW and SW support. Prefer one format, either one, than the status quo of both formats fighting each other, when we should just get one format to drive HD adoption. That will get studios to transition from DVD to HD and release more content.

So I don't think format neutrality or buying both formats is the answer. Plus at best, this approach can only be taken by a small percentage of the market -- affluent enthusiasts willing to spend more money than most consumers. IOW, there are not enough people to support both formats. In fact, there may not be enough willing buyers to support one HD optical disc format (despite the expected 30% US household penetration by the end of this month). This could be LaserDiscs all over again.

Hmmm

he may have a point here:

everyone stop posting and go watch an HD movie on your fav optical disc format :D


:D

Does anyone have a link to the history behind the format war, from the beginning? I'm sure it depends completely on who you ask, but an objective timeline of the events that lead up the the "war" would be nice.

Yeah, I think you may just be missing it.

Thanks, that's why I asked. I had noticed all the Blu-Ray advertising without looking for it, but couldn't recall seeing anything for HD DVD.

I'll keep my eyes open.

Hmmm

he may have a point here:

everyone stop posting and go watch an HD movie on your fav optical disc format :D

I don't think that's good for AVS. Isn't that a little like a TV station telling its viewers to go read a book? ;)

why don't we all be format neutral? ;)

That would be great...BRING ON THE MULTI-FORMAT PLAYERS!! :D :D

Ahh

This needs to be made sticky if its to suck the trivia from the news thread

Ahh

This needs to be made sticky if its to suck the trivia from the news thread

stuck :cool:

...continuing from the issues regarding profiles on BR from the News thread...

It was pointed out that the BDA forum says this about BD-Live:

Some Blu-ray Disc Players, those with Internet connections can connect to the internet which enables the end user to download additional content to the player’s internal memory, as well as the ability to enjoy unique, “web-enabled” interactive features.

To which I asked: "Are the players that have ethernet connections today BD-Live capable players?"

Now in another post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9179800&&#post9179800), the following disclaimer is on Pioneer's page:

This player does not support direct connection to the Internet or the retrieval of content through the Internet. Pioneer provides a Limited Firware Warranty for firmware updates in the event of playability issues with some commercially pre-recored discs, however, firmware updates for this Player will not include upgrades for Internet access or retreival of content.

The BDA and Pioneer seem to be at odds here?

Would those who stated that existing players would likely be upgradable to BD-Live care to comment?

:D I make it a point to watch a HD DVD movies or a upconverted SD DVD movie every day. That's why I sometimes post in the middle of the night! :D

The problem I have right now is I have netflixed HD DVD movies and HD DVD movies I have bought sitting on the shelf because I don't have time to watch them all, even though I watch more movies than a normal human.

That's why I think that the studio support issue will be less a factor in the initial purchase decision as time goes on, and price more a factor. The price factor favors HD DVD.

I think the studio support factor becomes neutral for J6P when more than a couple hundred HD DVD or Blu-ray movies are on the shelf, because nobody can watch 100 movies in a reasonable period of time. Once a buyer sees I can buy a bunch of movies fro $19.99 or less that I want to watch, theres a critical tipping point where x amount of movies available is enough to support the buying decision.

HD DVD also has the advantage in sd DVD upconversion being available in teh low end players.

I'm pulling for Blu-Ray to win because of greater capacity, greater bandwidth and better writable support.

Smarter is better than Bigger. Smarter and Bigger is even better, but that seems to escape Sony.

Right, I'm sure you can teach a multibillion dollar consumer electronics company on what is smarter CE design.

Looks like the PS3 does indeed cost a fortune to make...$805 for the 20GB model @ $399 Japan price = $400 loss...

But I think the blu ray drive costs more than shown here ($125)...

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9186050&&#post9186050

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadget.com/media/2006/12/12.15.06---wii_cost_comparison.jpg

Just thought I like to share a couple of slightly old articles I happened to find...

http://ce.seekingalpha.com/article/17605

http://news.com.com/PlayStation+3+component+prices+Why+so+high/2100-1043_3-6042226.html

From a business stand point it seems as if Sony's strategy is somewhat similar to when it launched the PS2 of which it had a 78% of the market shares. Thus it was sucessful because it was able to recover the production costs quickly.

But now, with the PS3 the same strategy may not work as well....because the cost of producing is much higher..plus rising costs due to delays .....plus Xbox 360 and Wii are taking away market shares. It's estimated by some analysts that it may take up to 5 years for Sony to recover the costs...and the attach rate per unit maybe close to 30 units.

If any of these predictions prove to be somewhat accirate, it makes all sense in the world why Sony's focus is shifting toward software...and that it's in for a long dry spell of losses.

What funny is, when iSupply estimated the cost of Toshiba player, HD DVD supporters denied to accept it, and very same company did same thing now for PS3, they suddenly take it as a factual data ;). What a double standard it is :eek:

b2b just posted this link on the news only thread.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4405&Itemid=2

Andy Estes of Nearby Networks, which runs PS3seeker and Wiiseeker, told the paper, “We believe there are going to be Wiis held and released Dec. 17 and that will be the last shipment before Christmas. We think there might be a PS3 shipment about the same time."

I've been told that it's my own fault that I get upset at Sony not delivering on their promisses. So, I think I won't get my hopes up too high on this one. ;)

A while back b2b pointed out that all of those PS3 gamers weren't going to just throw their copy of Talladega Nights in the trash. So what are all those gamers/potential BD enthusiasts doing with their copies of TN?

http://cgi.*********/Talladega-Nights-The-Ballad-Of-Ricky-Bobby-Blu-Ray_W0QQitemZ260063652533QQihZ016QQcategoryZ617QQrdZ1QQcmdZV iewItem

Brand New DVD. Came with Sony Playstation 3. Never been used.

I bet after Christmas you can pick up a sealed BD-25 version of TN for a smoking price on line. ;)

What funny is, when iSupply estimated the cost of Toshiba player, HD DVD supporters denied to accept it, and very same company did same thing now for PS3, they suddenly take it as a factual data ;). What a double standard it is :eek:I never did...Problem is for Sony they've got it bad... - 6 million ea. * $400

One difference is that in a PS3, there are a lot of key components which are produced internally (by Sony group) and it leaves much margin to reduce cost. Actually, the picture mikemorel posted clearly stated this ;) (it says "PS3's one is the cost at the initial shipment. Cost/profit structure will be dramatically improved in a short term since many components are internal products.")

I know some 200-300K HD-DVD players are out there, as per figures quoted.Source please? With 70K G1 Toshibas, 50K HD-DVD add-ons, and maybe a few K HD-A2's, I fail to see how you get 200K let alone 300.

Either way, they launched with what I would term a "stop gap spec" - just a little something to "tide them over" during the "launch" (I use that term generously), but nowhere near as good as the HDi spec in HD DVD. Launch BD players may not have PiP (or might, we won't know until software is released). What else do you think is missing that makes BD-J "nowhere near as good"?!?
So, they are effectively obsolete before you even get them home.Lack of network interface certainly doesn't make a player obsolete unless the only reason you bought it was to use the network interface.
HD DVD , on the other hand, was ready! Boy was it ready... You don't see three different versions of the HDi spec floating around, nor promises that by JUNE 2007, they be able to do the REAL stuff, do you?Huh, so with certain titles not working on certain platforms unless you get a firmware upgrade, or not (U-control not working on PC playback), and HDi online component requiring a firmware upgrade according to Toshiba's manual, everything was ready?
So that's what I meant - which is pretty much exactly what I put "on the box". The bluray players on sale now, are effectively obsolete. The fact that a very specific class of bonus feature may not work certainly doesn't make a player obsolete.

- Talk

i have come across many topics on this board showing a concern over the lack of marketing and advertising, the lack of manufacturer support and the lack of production in the hd dvd camp but there is one very important explanation for all this. Toshiba loses money on every unit they produce and sell to the general public. The average net loss on the first generation units was roughly 200 dollars. There is no way Toshiba can convince other manufactures to produce and item and sell it for a loss. Just like sony could not convice pioneer to manufacture its Ps3 like they did their stand alone blue ray player.

Toshiba is willing to do this because they know that the real money is made from the liscensing of the software (i.e sales of the hd-dvd themselves, just like sd dvd's now, and games for the console market). People have to understand that samsung, panasonic and phillips are not supporting blue ray because they think it is better but because they want to make money and blue ray gives them a chance to enter a market that otherwise they could not enter without taking losses on production. Now the marketing is a different story, the blue ray camp has to use gorilla advertising techniques and viral marketing (i.e paying retailers and internet sites to hype the product) because nobody knows what a blue ray is. Hd-dvd has a name that people are familar with, it would not make sense for toshiba who is already losing money on units to agressively invest in advertising a product whose name is already familar in the eyes of the GP. Really, the only thing Hd-dvd must do is to counter the BR's massive pr campaign by ensuring that in each retail store an hd-dvd unit is being demo'd near or next to blue ray players, and to increase volume of production. I dont see why toshiba has to bear the brunt of this on their own, microsoft is one of the riches companies in the world they need to be pushing them harder for some monetary support. First, they are lackin in the demo endcap areas in retail stores and number of units produced. For them to waste money in intensive advertising like the br camp is doing now would be stupid, because it not neccesarry.

Once the average joe sees a blue ray player and HD dvd player side by side playing movies there is no way a salesperson will be able to convice them that BD is worth 500 more (the newer toshiba AX2 is a different story and maybe things will change unless they take losses on those units but thats unlikey with the high price tag).

I know toshiba is losing money but really all they need to do is hit up MS for some dough so they can crank out more units and get those end caps going. If u really think about it Toshiba is actually banking on winninig this format war and sony is not. Why else would toshiba be willing to lose money on units and sony is persistant to milk the public for as much as possible.

Not saying one format is better then the other just saying that just because u dont see tv comericals for HD-tv does not mean toshiba does not know what they are doing. Trust me blue ray needs it more the HD-dvd. Ask anyone over 50 what a hd-dvd is and ask them what a blue ray is and u will see. Even if they dont know exactly what hd-dvd is they atleast know its a movie, blu ray u could get a wide range of responses but mostly they think its something in the water (and remember the 50year old range is the demographic with all the cash right now).

The paragraph return key is your friend. ;)

edvedder.

ask everybody over 50? the target market for both bluray and hd-dvd at this moment is between 18 and 36.

there has been 42.000 hd-dvd xbox360 add ons sold in 2 weeks time. i dont know sale data of toshiba standalone players, but my guess is that they didnt sold 42.000 units in 2 weeks. but more like 6 months.

at this moment both hd-dvd and bluray are going for the gamer market so to speak. for a new format to succeed you first need a strong basis. once that is done. then you can start marketing the older generation.

yes the older generation have money. but to turn them from dvd to hd-dvd or bluray will be very hard to do.

both bluray and toshiba need guerila marketing to succeed. bluray is doing big marketing now. but hd-dvd aint doing it at this moment. and key titles are being delayed for both formats.

mid 2007 till xmas 2007 will be the time to see if hd-dvd or if bluray will succeed or. maybe both will succeed or both will fail. very intresting times ahead for sure.

One difference is that in a PS3, there are a lot of key components which are produced internally (by Sony group)I hope you could acknowledge that sometimes it is better, sometimes worse to produce parts in house. Especially parts which you are not accostomed to make - e.g. blue laser diodes.

and it leaves much margin to reduce cost. Actually, the picture mikemorel posted clearly stated this ;) (it says "PS3's one is the cost at the initial shipment. Cost/profit structure will be dramatically improved in a short term since many components are internal products.") Internal costs can cost as much or more than external costs, depending on who is doing the work. And blue laser diodes have proven to be a tough nut to crack. Sony's core expertise is not blue laser diodes. Good thing Sharp is there to partially bail Sony out. One Japanese firm helping another.

Woops Sharp is a MPEG-LA blu ray supporter. They get royalties. So that's why they are helping out...

Source please? With 70K G1 Toshibas, 50K HD-DVD add-ons, and maybe a few K HD-A2's, I fail to see how you get 200K let alone 300.
Fair enough. I took gospel as truth. I think 130K woulda been more accurate.

I hope you could acknowledge that sometimes it is better, sometimes worse to produce parts in house. Especially parts which you are not accostomed to make - e.g. blue laser diodes.

Internal costs can cost as much or more than external costs, depending on who is doing the work. And blue laser diodes have proven to be a tough nut to crack. Sony's core expertise is not blue laser diodes. Good thing Sharp is there to partially bail Sony out. One Japanese firm helping another.

Woops Sharp is a MPEG-LA blu ray supporter. They get royalties. So that's why they are helping out...
Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...
November 1969: Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor Inc. established
1970: Manufacture of power transistors started
1986: Manufacture of laser diodes started
1989: Manufacture of laser couplers started
January 1994: ISO9002 certification acquired (manufacture of compound semiconductors)
March 1997: ISO14001 certification acquired
July 1997: Wafer process (post epitaxial) manufacturing started
July 1998: MOCVD manufacturing started
April 1999: Development center established
November 2000: Occupational Health & Safety Management System (JACO standard) certification acquired
April 2001: Building 2 completed
January 2002: ISO9001 certification acquired (Year 2000 Standard)
December 2002: Received the “Ibuka Prize Incentive Award” for development of blue-violet laser devices
May 2003: Building 3 completed with the intention of mass producing blue-violet lasers
November 2004: Celebrated the 35th anniversary of the establishment of Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor Inc.
In laser diode manufacturing, MOCVD* crystal growth is said to be the first, and largest, difficulty. Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor is a manufacturing site that is unique in the world, even if we only consider its unified production system, which includes all four manufacturing processes from MOCVD, to the following wafer, assembly, and testing processes.
However, this site’s uniqueness does not stop there: Sony moved its blue-violet laser
development group here from the Research Center in Yokohama in 1999. By being entrusted with the development and design of the blue-violet laser for the next generation of large-capacity optical discs, Sony Shiroishi Semiconductor became a critical site that holds the fate of optical media in its hands.
http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol41/sideview.html

b2b

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...


http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol41/sideview.html

b2bYou want to reign that mess of a post in and make a point? Because I really didn't get it...

And if your post includes a Sony PR message...I'm not much interested in that...Sony lies like nobody's business.

You want to reign that mess of a post in and make a point? Because I really didn't get it...

And if your post includes a Sony PR message...I'm not much interested in that...Sony lies like nobody's business.

Didn't figure you would...

b2b

Didn't figure you would...

b2bWhy would I? Sony is going down. Not because of me, or any one else here, but because of the introduction of Blu-Ray to the PS3. $500/$600 per box, and retarted DVD players from BD companies will sell in the hundreds.

MS will drop prices soon, and will keep the pressure on.

HD-DVD is cheaper to produce. And discs are cheaper. It's like Windows vs. OS2, all over again.

Launch BD players may not have PiP (or might, we won't know until software is released). What else do you think is missing that makes BD-J "nowhere near as good"?!?
Lack of network interface certainly doesn't make a player obsolete unless the only reason you bought it was to use the network interface.
Huh, so with certain titles not working on certain platforms unless you get a firmware upgrade, or not (U-control not working on PC playback), and HDi online component requiring a firmware upgrade according to Toshiba's manual, everything was ready?
The fact that a very specific class of bonus feature may not work certainly doesn't make a player obsolete.

- Talk

While I specifically avoided the use of "obsolete" in my discussion of the player, as I think it's too strong of a word (hence I'm not surprised to see rdjam use it :p ), I do certainly think that there's a degree of significant issue there.

For instance, Dell knows Vista is coming, and while selling a system now that doesn't have the necessary GPU horsepower to run Aero, significant new OS interface feature, doens't necessarily make that PC obsolete, is is certainly going to be deprecated in the mind of the user. Hence MS publishes both minumum specs and recommeded specs for the software. And logo programs for "Vista Ready", etc... And Dell will have online advisors when you order. This sort of compatability info and consumer education is what is missing from the BDA.

So in one sense I agree with you, Talk: it won't be obsolete in the strict sens of the word. But where I disagree is where there's any real clear indication what will and won't work on systems in the next 6-9 months. Even here insiders like yourself can't say for certaintly... what chance does a consumer have?

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...


May 2003: Building 3 completed with the intention of mass producing blue-violet lasers


b2b

Well good intentions and practical reality are often at odds. Sony's recent blame of delay and shortage on diode problems would seem to support that.

"Best laid plans of mice & men", and all that...

What funny is, when iSupply estimated the cost of Toshiba player, HD DVD supporters denied to accept it, and very same company did same thing now for PS3, they suddenly take it as a factual data ;). What a double standard it is :eek: Well I think the general consensus was that it was a little high and not by much for the HD A1 and thus the HD A1 was losing money. Isuppli made the subsidy at $175 per player. The more expensive HD XA1 used the same guts and sold for $300 more and probably broke even. most HD DVD backers said that those costs might be high because Toshiba also produced laptops and we didn't know their sourcing costs.

But the major point was that the Toshiba first generation subsidy is a different animal than the PS3 subsidy in several critical ways.

First, it applies to a limited production run. Assuming a maximum subsidy of $175 per all probable 70,000 units built is only a 12,250,000 one time investment. That could almost be considered an advertising expense. Consider that the costs were probably not that high in reality, and that HD XA1s didn't lose as much as you get somewhere between 0 and 8-9 million dollars if iSuppli's numbers were accurate. That could almost be considered a wise marketing write off to be first to market and gain early sales and early adopter support. It worked here on AVS to convince people to try it out and it made a lot of us HD DVD supporters.

Compare that to a 300-400 loss on a console that has to be made up for software sales. The PS3 is going to be available in the millions, not the tens of thousands. Assuming a low 4,000,000 PS3s at a conservative $300 loss, thats a huge number times a big number. 4,000,000 x 300 = 1,200,000,000 or a 1.2 Billion dollar subsidy that has to be made up in software sales. That Billion with a B.

Seriously....one question:

What is your concern about Toshiba taking a loss on the Gen 1 players?

The way I feel about it is this:

First, it may not be true. The teardown analysis is an estimate only. Toshiba builds PCs and has buying power, a similar laptop at cost could be built for $500. Intel and other component makers have an incentive to provide components for free. Etc. Etc. Only Toshiba knows the costs.

Next even if it was true, assuming a $200 loss per unit and 70,000 units thats an one time $14,000,000 subsidy to launch the HD DVD format and prime the demand. The Blu-Ray group just wasted millions this month on the format launch which hardly affected the Samsung sales.

Since the current player is PC based and already has been used for four firmware updates, the current players being released is in effect a large scale final beta or release candidate test that has succeeded in getting a positive impression among first adopters.

If Toshiba did subsidize the launch, what it did buy was a first to market advantage, a product demonstration that the HD DVD technology worked, highlighted the flaws in the Blu-Ray MPEG2 SL25 picture and raise the bar that the G1 Blu-Ray ran into to. And created great word of mouth advertising and created evengelical users and converted many people to the HD DVD camp. It also may have pushed content providers to release more movies to the format. Thats seems to me to be a pretty good deal for the money.

The next generation of HD DVD players will have more refined designs and will be cheaper to build. Software on a Chip and more straightforward components produced in larger quantities will be cheaper to build. So even if you assume a loss per unit, it will likely be reduced in the future.

The cost for a comparable HD DVD unit and a Blu-Ray unit produced in the same quantities is likely to have the HD DVD unit cheaper as it is closer to a CE standard DVD player than the Blu-Ray player.

If Toshiba added extra goodies, multiple DSPs etc, to provide a premium early adopter experience, then its a good value for the consumer.

The only significant concern would be if Toshiba would in the future take a large loss on millions of units. But thats probably not going to happen.

Any subsidy argument also applies to the Playstation 3 where because of the volume involved Sony's risk is much greater. And Toshiba has already reaped the rewards with a player that has came first to market with performance that counts.

If Toshiba has subsidized the launch, still unproven IMHO, then what we have is a win win sitution for Toshiba RCA and consumers. The HD DVD camp gains an advantage and only Sony and the Blu-RAy camp suffers. Not Consumers.

If Toshiba is not selling at a loss, then they have an even greater advantage.

Again, the HD DVD lose on every player, even if it is occuring, is a TEMPORARY situation and is sustainable by Toshiba in the short term.

So who cares? I like it if consumers are getting a better deal.

IMHO

Please tell me what I am missing.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8017264#post8017264


The PS3 subsidy is a much larger gamble than the HD A1 subsidy was. Plus its now in the past, Toshiba has easily absorbed that loss and moved on, none the less for wear, and in a different and better market position. The PS3 subsidy is still in the future and if PS3 software sales (movie and game) don't take off to cover it, then Sony's strategy will bleed cash in a massive manner.

Top 10 most significant Hardware of 2006

#7 HD DVD, Blu-ray (tie)

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/12/15/tgdaily_yop_ten_hardware_2006/page4.html

Predictions for 2007:
The HD format war will really begin to take off next year, with the PS3 becoming much more widely available and consumer awareness about the formats continues to grow, combined with price cuts in base models of players. While we currently can simply say that HD DVD has won the first round of the battle, we will be able to point to a likely winner by the end of next year.

Kosty

You have a knack for stating the obvious and making sound like a revelation.

For Sony and Microsoft thats how their console businesses work. This isnt a secret. You've not cracked any secret codes.

You make it sound like Sony is new to the console game and are not aware of the consequences if they get it wrong. It seems you believe if you keep on repeating the pitfalls, ad nauseum, you'll take on some sort of mystical sage like qualities.

Do you believe (even with Sony's absolutely calamatous performances in the last year) that the ps3 will be a failure(sell less than 8 million) in its first year?

Because, imho, that what it will take for all your dreams to come true and even the most cynical, pessimistic part of me cant see that happening.

the blue ray camp has to use gorilla advertising techniques and viral marketing (i.e paying retailers and internet sites to hype the product) because nobody knows what a blue ray is.These "gorilla [sic] advertising techniques" are standard for all retail products. You want a given TV or A/V product advertised by Best Buy or put on an endcap? You have to pay for it. That's simply part of retailing today from all the major outlets. This is certainly not a sign of desparation by the Blu-ray camp, but it's a clear advantage when you've got all the major CE vendors (other than Toshiba) selling the same format.

Really, the only thing Hd-dvd must do is to counter the BR's massive pr campaign by ensuring that in each retail store an hd-dvd unit is being demo'd near or next to blue ray players, and to increase volume of production. Once the average joe sees a blue ray player and HD dvd player side by side playing movies there is no way a salesperson will be able to convice them that BD is worth 500 more. Unless the consumer asks why no one but Toshiba is supporting the format, or why they can't get any Disney or Fox or Sony/Columbia movies, or why there are no HD-DVD PC burners or camcorders. For consumers wary of a format war, the one with players from many vendors (and an incredibly high-profile product like the PS3 which guarantees future support for Blu-ray) will look like a far less risky purchase.

- Talk

Gee Mike, I think you are just makin' stuff up again...


http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/cx_news/vol41/sideview.html

b2b

All very interesting b2b, but it doesn't change the reality. Sony is clearly having problems fixing their yield problems on blue lasers. They bet the farm (or should I say the gaming division) on having yields fixed by this fall. Their gamble didn't work out.

The penalty. PS3 trails WII sales in Japan by a big margin with no hope in sight of catching up. The PS3 will end this year well behind the Xbox360 in North America (about an order of magnitude difference). None of this is good news for the trojan horse strategy.

The format war hasn't been decided yet, but we'll have a good idea of the winners and loosers in the console war by the end of the month.

BTW on that last link you posted. I thought it was interesting that Sony went from claiming 2 Million PS3s by the end of the year to 900,000 PS3s by the end of the year. I'm no less skeptical of the latest revised number than the previous revised number.

Kosty

You have a knack for stating the obvious and making sound like a revelation.

For Sony and Microsoft thats how their console businesses work. This isnt a secret. You've not cracked any secret codes.

You make it sound like Sony is new to the console game and are not aware of the consequences if they get it wrong. It seems you believe if you keep on repeating the pitfalls, ad nauseum, you'll take on some sort of mystical sage like qualities.

Do you believe (even with Sony's absolutely calamatous performances in the last year) that the ps3 will be a failure(sell less than 8 million) in its first year?

Because, imho, that what it will take for all your dreams to come true and even the most cynical, pessimistic part of me cant see that happening.

I'd like to answer this one as well. Yes, Sony will sell less than 8 Million PS3s in the first year.

Why would I? Sony is going down. Not because of me, or any one else here, but because of the introduction of Blu-Ray to the PS3. $500/$600 per box, and retarted [sic] DVD players from BD companies will sell in the hundreds.Wishful thinking. In spite of their huge R&D costs and subsidies, Sony has still been consistently profitable the last few years and will be (barely) this year. The PS2 is incredibly profitable - continues to be the best-selling game system by a wide margin. You think they're subsidizing that? The PS3 will provide the same franchise, but pull in even more revenue since it ensures the success of Blu-ray and will be a tremendous home media center. Very high costs to start with, no question, but great rewards as well given how terrific the hardware has turned out. Compare this with Microsoft, who has reportedly lost $6B on all of their hardware efforts (Xbox/Xbox 360, Zune, Windows Mobile, etc.). They've spent many, many years trying to profit from these efforts and they are still years away from actually doing so.
HD-DVD is cheaper to produce. And discs are cheaper.And a red-laser HD DVD player (DivxHD or WMV-HD) is far cheaper than both, yet there is virtually no consumer interest. Just being cheaper is certainly not sufficient for market success. Incidentally, when is the last time you saw a one CE company format be successful?

So in one sense I agree with you, Talk: it won't be obsolete in the strict sens of the word. But where I disagree is where there's any real clear indication what will and won't work on systems in the next 6-9 months. Even here insiders like yourself can't say for certaintly... what chance does a consumer have?I don't disagree that there hasn't been much transparency around the profiles and what each player supports. The BDA could probably be more proactive in describing the profiles, but ultimately it's up to each player manufacturer to describe what features they support or don't support. I don't think this will be an issue by next Fall, when I expect virtually all players in the market will support BD-Live. Given that the standalone market today is really targeted at well-educated early adopters who are probably more willing than most to upgrade equipment frequently and probably will number less than 100K sales of 1G players, I think this early period of uncertainty won't be a major issue going forward, especially since the PS3 would appear to be capable of full BD-Live support.
Do you know of those chips support all of the necessary features for -Live as well? Understanding of course that you'd also have to supply the DRAM for persistent storage, and the PHY for the network connection, but are memory controllers and network support on the chips to take advantage of ?I believe so (Keith and Tom or Google can likely answer that question quickly). If not, it's probably a trivial amount of peripheral hardware needed to do so.

- Talk

All very interesting b2b, but it doesn't change the reality. Sony is clearly having problems fixing their yield problems on blue lasers. They bet the farm (or should I say the gaming division) on having yields fixed by this fall. Their gamble didn't work out.Perhaps in the short term (and there's no indication anyone else can get higher yields, which would impact HD-DVD as well if there were sufficient demand).
The penalty. PS3 trails WII sales in Japan by a big margin with no hope in sight of catching up. The Wii isn't the PS3's prime competition, the Xbox 360 is.
The PS3 will end this year well behind the Xbox360 in North America (about an order of magnitude difference). None of this is good news for the trojan horse strategy.Short-term issue. The race will be far closer by next summer, when there will likely be over 6M PS3's and perhaps 11M Xbox 360's.
The format war hasn't been decided yet, but we'll have a good idea of the winners and loosers in the console war by the end of the month.This isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. The only way we know anything by the end of the month is if there are PS3's sitting unsold on the shelf.
BTW on that last link you posted. I thought it was interesting that Sony went from claiming 2 Million PS3s by the end of the year to 900,000 PS3s by the end of the year. I'm no less skeptical of the latest revised number than the previous revised number.Sony has reiterated their expectation that they will have 2M units out in Japan and North America by the end of the year. If they know they can't come anywhere close to this there would be major investor consequences, so we can accept that, given how close the timeframe is, there is reason to believe this is fairly realistic. Even PJ McNealy, one of the most conservative analysts, has said he expects there to be nearly 1M PS3's in the US by end of year.

Wishful thinking. In spite of their huge R&D costs and subsidies, Sony has still been consistently profitable the last few years and will be (barely) this year. The PS2 is incredibly profitable - continues to be the best-selling game system by a wide margin. You think they're subsidizing that? The PS3 will provide the same franchise, but pull in even more revenue since it ensures the success of Blu-ray and will be a tremendous home media center. Very high costs to start with, no question, but great rewards as well given how terrific the hardware has turned out. Compare this with Microsoft, who has reportedly lost $6B on all of their hardware efforts (Xbox/Xbox 360, Zune, Windows Mobile, etc.). They've spent many, many years trying to profit from these efforts and they are still years away from actually doing so.
And a red-laser HD DVD player (DivxHD or WMV-HD) is far cheaper than both, yet there is virtually no consumer interest. Just being cheaper is certainly not sufficient for market success. Incidentally, when is the last time you saw a one CE company format be successful?

Two comments.

Microsoft is in a much better financial position to absorb huge bets (like the ones you listed) than Sony is (barely profitable this year, possibly not profitable next year).

When is the last time you saw a one CE company format be successful? I'll go out on a limb and say that I expect CES will be interesting.

Since the original thread changed to a news only thread for anyone curious here is the post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9176200&&#post9176200) I am responding to.

Thank you for the kind invitation to join this little discussion...

The point my sig makes, is that Bluray couldn't get all the stuff HD DVD has in it's HDi spec to work up front - or they didn't know enough about the HDi spec up front.Saying that current Blu-ray players are obsolete is a complete and utter lie and I believe you know that. If you really wanted to say that current Blu-ray players didn't have certain features that current HD DVD players have you could have easily made such a statement for your signature. Actions speak louder than words and until you change that signature all I see is a poster so desperate to attack Blu-ray that they are willing to say basically anything about it.


Will they play a basic Bluray movie? - sure. Will they be compatible with ALL features on future Bluray discs? - not a chance.Than put something in your signature along the lines of "Not all extra features will work on current Blu-ray players". That of course wouldn't have the same level of negativity but at least it would be true.

Sorry if already posted.

"Playstation, Xbox, and Wii: Why did Sony Fail?"

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback159.html

Just to ask this but why do the mods allow rdjam's signature when it obviously breaks forum rules? And there will be some people who read rdjam's signature and will actually believe it. Even those who strongly support HD DVD know that is wrong so why isn't there more backlash against it?

Perhaps in the short term (and there's no indication anyone else can get higher yields, which would impact HD-DVD as well if there were sufficient demand).

Ahhh....but that's not the case. Based on the projections of Mr. Fujii at Toshiba, they are expecting a grand total of 600,000 HD-DVD devices being sold by the end of March 07. The HD-DVD group is only using blue lasers in devices that are being purchased for watching movies (stand alone players, xbox add-on). They don't need big quantities to generate lots of HD-DVD movie sales.

In contrast Sony needs to ship blue lasers in every PS3. Some PS3 owners will adopt BD, others are selling their sealed copy of TN on e-bay and craigs list. Andy Parsons has stated the he expects at least a 33% BD adoption rate among PS3 buyers. I think 10% is a generous number. This makes the blue laser shortage an HD-DVD advantage.

As for when yields will improve, I invite you to define "short term."


The Wii isn't the PS3's prime competition, the Xbox 360 is.
Short-term issue. The race will be far closer by next summer, when there will likely be over 6M PS3's and perhaps 11M Xbox 360's.


Every Wii sold is one more home that is unlikely to buy a PS3. Loosing the sale to an Xbox360 is more painful, but both hurt PS3 sales.


This isn't a sprint, it's a marathon. The only way we know anything by the end of the month is if there are PS3's sitting unsold on the shelf.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. You can have poor sales for two reasons, either people don't want to buy your product or you can't produce your product in sufficient quantities. Sony is well on track to loosing it's dominance in the console market because of the second reason.


Sony has reiterated their expectation that they will have 2M units out in Japan and North America by the end of the year. If they know they can't come anywhere close to this there would be major investor consequences, so we can accept that, given how close the timeframe is, there is reason to believe this is fairly realistic. Even PJ McNealy, one of the most conservative analysts, has said he expects there to be nearly 1M PS3's in the US by end of year.

I full on expect there will be major consequences. I strongly recommend that you watch "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room." It's available on Blu-Ray, by the way. People often forget that when you find yourself in a hole with a shovel in your hands, the first thing you need to do is stop digging. I'm not saying that Sony is in the same position as Enron, but if you believe that a big company that is very profitable can't begin to make big gambles that fail and won't lie to try and hold things together, you're wrong. As Jeff Skilling said at the end.......if we only had a little more time to turn things around.

Here's why I'm very skeptical about their projections. Epitaxial is about as dark an art as there is in technology. They can crack the magic formula tomorrow, or they can keep on chasing the elusive goal for years. It's not a linear progression.

They don't need big quantities to generate lots of HD-DVD movie sales.Well that is surprising since usually to generate lots of movie sales you require lots of players.


Every Wii sold is one more home that is unlikely to buy a PS3. Loosing the sale to an Xbox360 is more painful, but both hurt PS3 sales.I never knew that buying one console prevented you from buying the others. Especially since besides my PS3 I also own a PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube. Also I thought that even Nintendo expected most people who bought a Wii to also buy one of the other game consoles.


I've said it before, I'll say it again. You can have poor sales for two reasons, either people don't want to buy your product or you can't produce your product in sufficient quantities. Sony is well on track to loosing it's dominance in the console market because of the second reason.So because of the first month of PS3 sales you are already proclaiming that Sony is well on track to losing this console war? Jumping the gun just a bit aren't you?

Well that is surprising since usually to generate lots of movie sales you require lots of players.

Sony muddied the waters with the trojan horse strategy. (1) PS3 does not equal (1) HD-A2 as far as disc sales. Only a percentage of PS3 players will be used for movies.


I never knew that buying one console prevented you from buying the others. Especially since besides my PS3 I also own a PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube. Also I thought that even Nintendo expected most people who bought a Wii to also buy one of the other game consoles.

If there is data showing that the majority of console buyers buy more than one console, I'd be interested in seeing it.


So because of the first month of PS3 sales you are already proclaiming that Sony is well on track to losing this console war? Jumping the gun just a bit aren't you?

In the first month Sony has revealed that they do not have the yield issue solved for blue lasers. They may find the magic formula tomorrow, but more likely they will not be able to solve this soon. This spells failure for them.

With every passing month, more and more game developers will shift their bets to consoles that have the installed base and momentum. These things are self perpetuating. It's very hard to recover lost momentum.

Sony muddied the waters with the trojan horse strategy. (1) PS3 does not equal (1) HD-A2 as far as disc sales. Only a percentage of PS3 players will be used for movies.I agree that only a percentage of PS3s will be used for Blu-ray playback but how do you know that the HD-A2 will generate more sales than the PS3? After all there will be a lot of PS3 consoles sold over the next several months.


If there is data showing that the majority of console buyers buy more than one console, I'd be interested in seeing it.When did I say that? I was just disagreeing with the statement that someone who buys a Wii is unlikely to buy a PS3 since I think it is a bit early to start stating that as a fact.


In the first month Sony has revealed that they do not have the yield issue solved for blue lasers. They may find the magic formula tomorrow, but more likely they will not be able to solve this soon. This spells failure for them.Well from what I can see the PS3 is likely to sell better this year than the Xbox 360 did last year. As such excuse me if I find prophecies of doom for the PS3 to be at best wishful thinking.

My favorite analyst (haha) Michael Pachter has chimed in about PS3 and BR:

Next-gen DVD battle will decide console war - Pachter
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=16505

And I think Pachter is completely off his rocker. The next-gen console war will be won or lost with GAMES as always.

These are game consoles. This category's outcome will not be decided by the freaking MOTION-PICTURE industry.

And right now, you have to see that Microsoft has momentum. A larger userbase, a lower price (with greater flexibility to price drop), a solid game library (with many great titles set to release in the first half of '07), and that "critical mass" that happens once a console reaches a certain penetration point, as mentioned above where people buy the console because their friends have it too.

Meanwhile, Sony's got its brand. Something they've undermined among their fanbase by releasing a game console that costs $500-600 with little room (if any) to drop in the near future.

With the botched launch, MS stands to actually accelerate AWAY from Sony this year, and game developers have to see that it makes more sense to put their games on the console with the highest install base and the easiest (and less expensive) development environment. Given that PS3's price may slow adoption of the console, it's not inconceivable that 360 may continue to pull away for a good part of next year. This will definitely impact developers' decisions and if 360 gets the devs and the games, PS3 will never catch up.

This is all a domino effect that started the moment Sony decided to saddle PS3 with Blu-ray, and it started picking up speed the day Kaz Hirai uttered those words, "Five-hundred ninety-nine U.S. dollars." Look at all the bad press Sony has garnered recently, for PS3 as well as Blu-Ray. The tiles are in motion, and I think a major upset is inevitable.

I agree that only a percentage of PS3s will be used for Blu-ray playback but how do you know that the HD-A2 will generate more sales than the PS3? After all there will be a lot of PS3 consoles sold over the next several months.

Let me clarify. 100 HD-A2's will sell more movies than 100 PS3s. The PS3 can overcome with sheer numbers, but that's where the blue laser shortage comes into play.

When did I say that? I was just disagreeing with the statement that someone who buys a Wii is unlikely to buy a PS3 since I think it is a bit early to start stating that as a fact.

Yes, unlikely. Out of 100 homes that buy a Wii, I expect that a majority will not buy a second console, hence hampering the PS3 in over all sales potential because of their weak launch at the critical Christmas season.

Well from what I can see the PS3 is likely to sell better this year than the Xbox 360 did last year. As such excuse me if I find prophecies of doom for the PS3 to be at best wishful thinking.

Only if Sony can solve their blue laser supply problems.

HD-DVD fans harping on Sony = http://www.filmhobbit.com/forum/images/admins/smilies/deadhorse.gif

b2b

Sony muddied the waters with the trojan horse strategy. (1) PS3 does not equal (1) HD-A2 as far as disc sales. Only a percentage of PS3 players will be used for movies.


It does to the studios, who control the movie side of the fence. Their marketing budgets will use the number of BD machines, not the attach rate. The same thought process that produces the draconian behavior complained about, produces a cultural thinking that ALL people want to watch their movies, regardless of why the machines were originally purchased.

Ken

HD-DVD fans harping on Sony = http://www.filmhobbit.com/forum/images/admins/smilies/deadhorse.gif

b2b

this is why u r still not on my ignore list. you make some of the most entertaining posts :D

It does to the studios, who control the movie side of the fence. Their marketing budgets will use the number of BD machines, not the attach rate. The same thought process that produces the draconian behavior complained about, produces a cultural thinking that ALL people want to watch their movies, regardless of why the machines were originally purchased.

Ken

You haven't seen the recent quote from the CEO of Time Warner saying he expects the PS3 to have little impact on BD movie sales?

You haven't seen the recent quote from the CEO of Time Warner saying he expects the PS3 to have little impact on BD movie sales?

Yes - that certainly blows my theories. Sure makes me wonder then why they are releasing on BD then. If I'm a stockholder I'm wondering why are they incurring the loss? Without the PS3, there aren't enough BD players in existence to justify the expenditure and won't be for a long time, if ever... Same is true on the HD-DVD side as Xbox addon doubles the number. Why would the attach rate for PS3 be any different? In fact, given the PS3 IS the low cost player for BD, the attach rate would be higher in theory since HD-DVD has other low cost options to the XBox add-on.....

In the end, he's the CEO and I'm not; guess I'll go fishing.... lot more fun anyway; at least I'm smarter than most of the fish....:)

ken
I think I will make a note though to avoid Time Warner stock; just in case this AOL company might be wrong here....

HD-DVD fans harping on Sony = http://www.filmhobbit.com/forum/images/admins/smilies/deadhorse.gif

b2b

Yes, entertaining...but I also think with Sony's "new format" record and their overall record from the last year + on many fronts...it could possibly be more like "Consumers harping on Sony."

Than put something in your signature along the lines of "Not all extra features will work on current Blu-ray players".Any unsupported features wouldn't show up in the user interface. And somehow I really doubt the Toshiba players can decode HD secondary video for PIP. Do they support WMA Pro audio decoding without a software update? No player can fully support all possible features out of the gate -- they are too complex to develop for.

HD-DVD fans harping on Sony = http://www.filmhobbit.com/forum/images/admins/smilies/deadhorse.gif

Even you are thinking of Sony as a dead horse now?

Any unsupported features wouldn't show up in the user interface. And somehow I really doubt the Toshiba players can decode HD secondary video for PIP. Do they support WMA Pro audio decoding without a software update? No player can fully support all possible features out of the gate -- they are too complex to develop forGood point, and I was just saying that it wouldn't be hard for rdjam to make a better statement than the one that is currently in his signature. In my opinion implying that all Blu-ray players until June of next year are obsolete is just plain deceptive.

Even you are thinking of Sony as a dead horse now?

Nope. Sony is fine and moving right along. It just gets tiresome hearing the same old talking points from the "look and sound of lips moving" play list..

You guys need to get together and come up with a new script to read from...

b2b

The 4th Quarter is the most profitable for all retailers. It is even a more crucial period for Video Game systems as prices have hit a point that takes Birthday presents and such out of the equation for a large percentage of the buying public. As much as some people want to bash MS and point out that they didn't have the greatest launch, it really needs to be looked at more in depth. MS was right in launching first. I believe as did alot of others that Sony would have a hard time making there launch date. MS had there own supply issues at launch, but the key is they were the only show in town, there was no other next gen console to apply the pressure. SUre they misssed some sales, but they accomplished what they needed to. Spring time passes and now its a November launch for Sony. Again MS analyzes the situation and probably prepares 2 scenarios.1) Being the potential price cut we all heard about 2) The let it ride through 4th quarter as Sony will obviously have significant supply issues....Well MS played there cards right. Sure they could have applied more pressure by dropping the price and selling more units this quarter, but I believe they were smart to get another quarter of heavy sales at full price. This is especially important based on the drop in Manufacturing costs on the 360 where they are now making minnimal $$ off of the hardware. Now Sony is going to get as many units as they can in the US before year end, because come Q1 2007 - Q3 2007 there will be an expected slow down in sales and stock will be on shelves plentiful. Now I am positive that MS has a price drop planned for Spring no later then Q2, but most likely Q1 of 2007. They are in the perfect spot to do it and potentially bring the Core below the cost of the Wii and the Premium just $50 above the cost of the Wii. This is significant because MS has to also compete with Nintendo. This is going to be such a huge advantage and what should keep MS on pace or most likely outpace Sony in 2007 and maintain an installed base lead. Sony is really no position to drop there price until at th eearliest 4th Quarter. Recent History has proven that there is a sweet spot around $200 for heavy traffic of console sales. I think teh Wii has shown this at present. Now add Halo 3 and I just can't see Sony passing MS in 2007 or even chopping marginally into the lead in NA. Even if you are PS3 loyalist you would be silly to discount Halo 3 and it's appeal, the numbers clearly prove it. Now Japan Sony will defenitely kill MS there, but now it looks like the Wii could cut into there penetration there significantly which again inadvertantly helps MS. I mean I really think MS made most of the right moves here and are in the drivers seat. I would be suprised IF MS didn't maintain an NA and Europe lead on Sony through the life of these Console Cycles. And looking ahead MS should be able to come out 1st again ......

Just to ask this but why do the mods allow rdjam's signature when it obviously breaks forum rules? And there will be some people who read rdjam's signature and will actually believe it. Even those who strongly support HD DVD know that is wrong so why isn't there more backlash against it?


why isn't there more backlash against it?

same reason I don't get upset when the nutjobs in San Francisco make a new sign to wave in toursists' faces. Not saying rdjm is a nutjob, he's just obviously not objective. That based on his posts, his website, his petition, and did I mention his posts. If someone is obviously not objective, then anything that goes in their signature doesn't really carry any weight.

If Alex or Kjack put something like that in their sig, it would be annoying. If you or B2B put something like that about HD-DVD, no one would care or notice.

I personally have never owned any form of Play station as I dont play much video games but Im pretty sure PS2's sold a tremendous amount more than xbox or xbox 360s. Anyone know the exact numbers. Anyone know why the PS3 wouldnt do the same thing? People werent camping out 3 and 4 days in advance and spending 2000 on ebay for a dying system or company. What was the starting price of the XBOX 360? wasnt it only like 100 dollars cheaper? And anyone who doesnt think in a few years when a new XBOX hits it wont be 600 dollars or more is crazy?

We are all suckers. We all want the newest and best and exciting technological advances and we want them now.

why isn't there more backlash against it?

same reason I don't get upset when the nutjobs in San Francisco make a new sign to wave in toursists' faces. Not saying rdjm is a nutjob, he's just obviously not objective. That based on his posts, his website, his petition, and did I mention his posts. If someone is obviously not objective, then anything that goes in their signature doesn't really carry any weight.I guess that makes sense, but I have the suspicion that if someone said something that was obviously wrong about HD DVD that there would be a lot more posters complaining about it.


If you or B2B put something like that about HD-DVD, no one would care or notice.I am not so sure about that but personally I wouldn't do such a thing simply to put that to the test.


I personally have never owned any form of Play station as I dont play much video games but Im pretty sure PS2's sold a tremendous amount more than xbox or xbox 360s. Anyone know the exact numbers. Anyone know why the PS3 wouldnt do the same thing?Though history can be useful the past does not always reflect the future and the fortunes of a company can change. As such simply because the PS2 did very well does not guarantee that the PS3 will do so as well. Personally speaking though in the last few weeks of owning a PS3 I am rather optimistic about its future.

I understand history doesnt always repeat themselves but Im pretty sure most people have a PS2 are very likely to get the PS3 and so forth and so on. I beleive it sold 25 millions units or so. Again on that number correct me if Im wrong and the xbox and xbox 360 were closer to single digits. Again any haters Im not sure the exact numbers. If anyone has them please let me know and It just seems logical most gamers will continue along with there respective game systems as they can play there old games on there new systems also.

I understand history doesnt always repeat themselves but Im pretty sure most people have a PS2 are very likely to get the PS3 and so forth and so on. I beleive it sold 25 millions units or so. Again on that number correct me if Im wrong and the xbox and xbox 360 were closer to single digits. Again any haters Im not sure the exact numbers. If anyone has them please let me know and It just seems logical most gamers will continue along with there respective game systems as they can play there old games on there new systems also.

I think these are all US numbers..
We also have the corrected life-to-date install bases for the U.S. The PS2 through November was at 35.8 million users. Very close behind is the GBA with 34.3 million. In the more modern battle of the portables, the DS stands at 7.6 million versus the PSP's 5.7 million. The Xbox 360 has sold 3.4 million units in the U.S., and the newly launched Wii and PS3 come in at 476K and 197K, respectively. Along with the Wii console, 270K Wii remotes and 153K nunchuks were also sold.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14737

b2b

WOW. That is a lot of PS2's. So even with less then expected units ready to sell imediately, I am pretty sure the PS3 will be fine in the long run. Even the hardcore HD fans have to think there are going to be many of those owners buying and using there PS3 as a blu ray player. It is going to help Blu Ray sales. Its hard to get the full effect one month in as many of the players are wrapped up for christmas gifts and many are still circulating through ebay.

WOW. That is a lot of PS2's. So even with less then expected units ready to sell imediately, I am pretty sure the PS3 will be fine in the long run. Even the hardcore HD fans have to think there are going to be many of those owners buying and using there PS3 as a blu ray player. It is going to help Blu Ray sales. Its hard to get the full effect one month in as many of the players are wrapped up for christmas gifts and many are still circulating through ebay.

Yup. That's a lot of PS2 SW that can be brought over to the PS3 too. PS2 is still outselling Xb360.
Looking at how the new Sony and Nintendo consoles fared, the Wii sold through 476K units in the U.S. while the PS3 sold 197K units. Meanwhile, Microsoft's Xbox 360 (which is in far greater supply) sold 511K units. Interestingly, the PS2 managed to outsell the Xbox 360 yet again. In fact, so did the old Game Boy. The PS2 and Game Boy sold a respective 664K and 641K units. Sony's PSP managed to sell 412K units. But the real winner continues to be the Nintendo DS, which sold a whopping 918K units. It's as if we say this every month, but people really can't get enough of the dual-screen portable it seems.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14685

b2b

xbox360 as hardware numbers arent a good indicator. i never understand why people use a number of consoles sold as indicator.

fact is on the xbox360 it is possible to play copied games. this is a fact. and lot of people specially in europe buy xbox360 to play copied games. those games wont make any revenue for the studios. same as in china. were 400.000 people bought a xbox360.

so imfportant is to know the number of xbox360 sold, that people use for their orginal games.

if out of those 8 million units sold. only 4 million actually use it to play orginal games. then revenue is much lower. ofcourse this is just an estimation and could be completely wrong. but you have to take that in account when you start using numbers for how many units sold.

same for nintendo DS, Ps2, xbox etc. but PS3 aint hacked yet, you cant play copied games on it.

so revenue wise bluray has sold more then hd-dvds. simply because games are also on bluray. and that is where the bluray effect come kickin in.

people are butchering sony so much for including the bluray drive in the PS3. why? do you want to be stuck in the past or you want to go into the future? i love the bluray drive in my ps3. and i am very happy that i have 1 unit that i can play next generation games on it and watch next generation movies.

i find the hd-dvd addon on the xbox360 and including 1080p on the xbox360 firmware update an indication that sony was right. why would microsoft otherwise do the firmware update and sell the xbox 360 add-on?

microsoft screams murder and death for sony to include such an expesive NExt generation drive in it. if so then why is the xbox360 stuck with a dvd drive from the past, while they release the hd-dvd addon. i would have glady paid 600 bucks as well for a xbox360 with hd-dvd drive inside from the beginning and you wouldnt have me heard complaining at all.

dont get me wrong i like it that i am able to play hd-dvds on my xbox360, but i have to give this to sony. they were right. including the bluray drive was essential. if not so. then microsoft should not had released the xbox360 hd-dvd addon at all.

I hope you could acknowledge that sometimes it is better, sometimes worse to produce parts in house. Especially parts which you are not accostomed to make - e.g. blue laser diodes.

Internal costs can cost as much or more than external costs, depending on who is doing the work. And blue laser diodes have proven to be a tough nut to crack. Sony's core expertise is not blue laser diodes. Good thing Sharp is there to partially bail Sony out. One Japanese firm helping another.One thing I can point out is, current most biggest blue LD supplier in the world is Sony. Not Nichia, nor Sharp. Sanyo? Toshiba? Forget about them.

HD-DVD is cheaper to produce. And discs are cheaper.Talking about discs? Maybe not, since the latter one mentioned "disc". If the former one indicated hardware, then what is your base saying so? What I saw innards of players from both camps, I found Toshiba's (both A1 and A2) looked much expensive to manufacture than BD players. Look, how many "chips" on the mainboard, how big the mainboard is, and so on...

xbox360 as hardware numbers arent a good indicator. i never understand why people use a number of consoles sold as indicator.

fact is on the xbox360 it is possible to play copied games. this is a fact. and lot of people specially in europe buy xbox360 to play copied games. those games wont make any revenue for the studios. same as in china. were 400.000 people bought a xbox360.

so imfportant is to know the number of xbox360 sold, that people use for their orginal games.

if out of those 8 million units sold. only 4 million actually use it to play orginal games. then revenue is much lower. ofcourse this is just an estimation and could be completely wrong. but you have to take that in account when you start using numbers for how many units sold.

same for nintendo DS, Ps2, xbox etc. but PS3 aint hacked yet, you cant play copied games on it.

so revenue wise bluray has sold more then hd-dvds. simply because games are also on bluray. and that is where the bluray effect come kickin in.

people are butchering sony so much for including the bluray drive in the PS3. why? do you want to be stuck in the past or you want to go into the future? i love the bluray drive in my ps3. and i am very happy that i have 1 unit that i can play next generation games on it and watch next generation movies.

i find the hd-dvd addon on the xbox360 and including 1080p on the xbox360 firmware update an indication that sony was right. why would microsoft otherwise do the firmware update and sell the xbox 360 add-on?

microsoft screams murder and death for sony to include such an expesive NExt generation drive in it. if so then why is the xbox360 stuck with a dvd drive from the past, while they release the hd-dvd addon. i would have glady paid 600 bucks as well for a xbox360 with hd-dvd drive inside from the beginning and you wouldnt have me heard complaining at all.

dont get me wrong i like it that i am able to play hd-dvds on my xbox360, but i have to give this to sony. they were right. including the bluray drive was essential. if not so. then microsoft should not had released the xbox360 hd-dvd addon at all.

I also wonder if people realise that a lot of the studios are getting into gaming also. Take the Matrix. On the last 2 movies they did a ton of motion capture and released a pretty crappy Matrix game (as I heard it, don't know for sure..). All of that motion capture can be used in a new PS3 game that on a 50GB disc includes the actual movie. Duh...!! Does anyone actually think that all of that 50GB of space is going to be left to waste forever ??

Storage space is like jumbo shrimp at a cocktail party. No matter how much you have, it won't be enough... ;)

b2b

edvedder.

ask everybody over 50? the target market for both bluray and hd-dvd at this moment is between 18 and 36.


at this moment both hd-dvd and bluray are going for the gamer market so to speak. for a new format to succeed you first need a strong basis. once that is done. then you can start marketing the older generation.

yes the older generation have money. but to turn them from dvd to hd-dvd or bluray will be very hard to do.




So where does a 55 year old guy with both an HD-XA1 and the Xbox-360 HD-DVD add-on fit into this? Who also bought an HD-A1 for a friend's birthday back in April? Who was turning 57? And it looks really nice on his NEC XG projector...

you know what they say about assumptions... ;)

Again..Price mattters in the long run in console penetration....Xbox this time around will have the clear advantage there. Again...people who point to past victories and rely on that for there predictios obviously don't work in the competetive retail/CE industry. Past success doesn't always translate into present and future success. We will see how stronp brand loyalty is when an Xbox 360 can be had for $199.99 and $299.99, or you can chose the $499 or $599 PS3, what is going to be the big seperator that motivates people to purchase the PS3?

Any unsupported features wouldn't show up in the user interface. And somehow I really doubt the Toshiba players can decode HD secondary video for PIP. Do they support WMA Pro audio decoding without a software update? No player can fully support all possible features out of the gate -- they are too complex to develop for.

Is WMA Pro a supported HD DVD audio format? I don't recall ever seeing that, and as a matter of fact I'm pretty sure I've seen Amir comment on "losing" that portion of the effort to get their tech in the spec.

As for seondary video, I've seen specific bit-rate caps for them, and they differ for codec choice (4Mbps for MPEG2, and 2Mbps for VC1/AVC, IIRC). That would seem to indicate that consideration for the hardware impact was given to the spec.

Given that the Toshiba decks thus far have dedicated hardware decoders, do you know of any chip specs that indicate they wouldn't be able to handle those secondary streams?

Wishful thinking. In spite of their huge R&D costs and subsidies, Sony has still been consistently profitable the last few years and will be (barely) this year. The PS2 is incredibly profitable - continues to be the best-selling game system by a wide margin. You think they're subsidizing that? The PS3 will provide the same franchise, but pull in even more revenue since it ensures the success of Blu-ray and will be a tremendous home media center. Very high costs to start with, no question, but great rewards as well given how terrific the hardware has turned out. Compare this with Microsoft, who has reportedly lost $6B on all of their hardware efforts (Xbox/Xbox 360, Zune, Windows Mobile, etc.). They've spent many, many years trying to profit from these efforts and they are still years away from actually doing so.
And a red-laser HD DVD player (DivxHD or WMV-HD) is far cheaper than both, yet there is virtually no consumer interest. Just being cheaper is certainly not sufficient for market success. Incidentally, when is the last time you saw a one CE company format be successful?

(emphasis mine)

When is the last time a game console has ensured the success of anything other than it's own game format?

The PS3 very well might... it's admittedly a trojan horse strategy. It didn't work for UMD, but I hope it does for the PS3. Nonetheless to say it ensures the success of the format is also wishful thinking.

The fact that a very specific class of bonus feature may not work certainly doesn't make a player obsolete.

- Talk
It's actually a "group" of "sevices" (plural) that are missing. The difference between BD-LIVE and BD-J is more than just PIP.

I may analyse it too starkly, and a little black and white, but the simple fact is that the Bluray players being sold today (with the "possible" exception of the PS3 - which we don't yet know can do PIP, etc) will not be able to perform the BD-LIVE features promised for the format. No one can argue with this.

Now, as to that signature file you're sporting - that's easy. A November 17th launch would mean that there would have to be about 900,000 PS3s out there before New Year's for your sig to be true.

And we know that ain't so... :)

I don't disagree that there hasn't been much transparency around the profiles and what each player supports. The BDA could probably be more proactive in describing the profiles, but ultimately it's up to each player manufacturer to describe what features they support or don't support. I don't think this will be an issue by next Fall, when I expect virtually all players in the market will support BD-Live. Given that the standalone market today is really targeted at well-educated early adopters who are probably more willing than most to upgrade equipment frequently and probably will number less than 100K sales of 1G players, I think this early period of uncertainty won't be a major issue going forward, especially since the PS3 would appear to be capable of full BD-Live support.
I believe so (Keith and Tom or Google can likely answer that question quickly). If not, it's probably a trivial amount of peripheral hardware needed to do so.

- Talk

Would you help me understand how even early adopters who are willing to educate themselves are going to find info about this? I can't readily find ANYTHING from CE manufactures, or the BDA that discusses the profiles, the diffences between them, timelines, etc...

Seriously... unless you happen to read multiple 150+ page threads here, where is this info?

Yes - that certainly blows my theories. Sure makes me wonder then why they are releasing on BD then. If I'm a stockholder I'm wondering why are they incurring the loss? Without the PS3, there aren't enough BD players in existence to justify the expenditure and won't be for a long time, if ever... Same is true on the HD-DVD side as Xbox addon doubles the number. Why would the attach rate for PS3 be any different? In fact, given the PS3 IS the low cost player for BD, the attach rate would be higher in theory since HD-DVD has other low cost options to the XBox add-on.....

In the end, he's the CEO and I'm not; guess I'll go fishing.... lot more fun anyway; at least I'm smarter than most of the fish....:)

ken
I think I will make a note though to avoid Time Warner stock; just in case this AOL company might be wrong here....

I don't follow the point you're making about the add-on.....

As for the PS3 attach rates, you're looking at it purely as a low cost BD player. First and foremost it's a game console and the folks lining up to buy them are typicaly males 15-25 and they want to play games. Every HD-DVD device (including the add-on) is being purchased for only one reason....to watch HD-DVD movies.

But as to why Warner would invest in BD and HD-DVD, it's the same reason that other studios have chosen to support both formats. It's not clear which format will ultimately win and they want to be well positioned for the adoption of either format.

I personally have never owned any form of Play station as I dont play much video games but Im pretty sure PS2's sold a tremendous amount more than xbox or xbox 360s. Anyone know the exact numbers. Anyone know why the PS3 wouldnt do the same thing? People werent camping out 3 and 4 days in advance and spending 2000 on ebay for a dying system or company. What was the starting price of the XBOX 360? wasnt it only like 100 dollars cheaper? And anyone who doesnt think in a few years when a new XBOX hits it wont be 600 dollars or more is crazy?

We are all suckers. We all want the newest and best and exciting technological advances and we want them now.

Sony can't make as many PS3s as they could PS2s. Some people think this is a normal startup challenge for a new device. If you dig into the details of blue laser production you start to realize the magnitude of Sony's problem. They could get lucky and fix blue laser yields soon....or not. I think not, but either way, they messed up their launch and missed Christmas 2006 as a prime opportunity to gain market penetration with the PS3.

Take a look at the current global sales numbers for the new consoles.

http://nexgenwars.com/

Is WMA Pro a supported HD DVD audio format? I don't recall ever seeing that, and as a matter of fact I'm pretty sure I've seen Amir comment on "losing" that portion of the effort to get their tech in the spec.
WMA Pro is an optional codec for secondary audio. It hasn't gotten much use, of course, as non-mandatory audio codecs don't get much use in general.

It would have been nice to get it in there, but it's not a killer given the relatively small portion of bitstreams compressed audio takes up (PCM is the obvious exception here). WMA is around 2x as efficient as Dolby Digital for typical 5.1 use. Our new low bit rate implementation is about 4x as efficient in the 32-96 Kbps range (you get great 2-channel music at 48 KHz at 64 Kbps).

Given that the Toshiba decks thus far have dedicated hardware decoders, do you know of any chip specs that indicate they wouldn't be able to handle those secondary streams?
Any HD DVD compliant player needs to support full spec PIP decode. Getting back to the whole complexity/value issue, by using a more constrained PIP spec, it was able to be mandatory, and used from early titles, where BD's more grandious spec has kept PIP from being universally playable or used much.

Sony can't make as many PS3s as they could PS2s. Some people think this is a normal startup challenge for a new device. If you dig into the details of blue laser production you start to realize the magnitude of Sony's problem. They could get lucky and fix blue laser yields soon....or not. I think not, but either way, they messed up their launch and missed Christmas 2006 as a prime opportunity to gain market penetration with the PS3.

Take a look at the current global sales numbers for the new consoles.

http://nexgenwars.com/
http://www.filmhobbit.com/forum/images/admins/smilies/deadhorse.gif

Sony {has/hasn't} {will/won't} {can/can't} _____________ (fill in the blank... )

;)

b2b

WMA Pro is an optional codec for secondary audio. It hasn't gotten much use, of course, as non-mandatory audio codecs don't get much use in general.

It would have been nice to get it in there, but it's not a killer given the relatively small portion of bitstreams compressed audio takes up (PCM is the obvious exception here). WMA is around 2x as efficient as Dolby Digital for typical 5.1 use. Our new low bit rate implementation is about 4x as efficient in the 32-96 Kbps range (you get great 2-channel music at 48 KHz at 64 Kbps).


Thanks Ben... didn't know that. Do you know if there's any labeling standards for media that would use WMA only for the secondary audio, so that way folks can determine if they have a player capable of it?

Any HD DVD compliant player needs to support full spec PIP decode. Getting back to the whole complexity/value issue, by using a more constrained PIP spec, it was able to be mandatory, and used from early titles, where BD's more grandious spec has kept PIP from being universally playable or used much.

Thanks again. Now just to get that pesky framerate thing sorted out. ;)

Sony muddied the waters with the trojan horse strategy. (1) PS3 does not equal (1) HD-A2 as far as disc sales. Only a percentage of PS3 players will be used for movies.

but no one thinks it is 1:1. Let me ask you this, let's keep it simple

what do you think about 500k PS3 by Jan 1? how about 200k HD DVD players? 1/3 of the PS3s would be equivalent to 167k, the other players make the difference.

The added benefit of the PS3 is that even if you assume the attach rate is less you still have more players. In other word even if (over all) the disk sales are less for BD, it is easier to sell 100k copies of a popular title.

Let me clarify. 100 HD-A2's will sell more movies than 100 PS3s. The PS3 can overcome with sheer numbers, but that's where the blue laser shortage comes into play.
but shortage is happening because there are so many more players, the shortage would also be for HD DVD if HD DVD could make and sell that many players in such a short time.

also let's say in a given neighbourhood there are 100 HD DVD players and 300 PS3s , let's also assume everyone buys local. The store sells the same number of BD movies as it does HD DVD. What is the theoretical max of a particular movie in HD DVD? how about BD?

People are getting PS3s without Talledega Nights, which would indicate they've hit 500k already.

People are getting PS3s without Talledega Nights, which would indicate they've hit 500k already.

Maybe they ran low on BD-25s. ;)

http://www.filmhobbit.com/forum/images/admins/smilies/deadhorse.gif

Sony {has/hasn't} {will/won't} {can/can't} _____________ (fill in the blank... )

;)

b2b

currently it's can't ;)

People are getting PS3s without Talledega Nights, which would indicate they've hit 500k already. Probably that many have been shipped already and soon will be sold. But its already Dec 17th and console sales that are not done by Dec 24 drop like a rock. Tick Tock Tick Tock.

From the news thread For all you Rob Enderle lovers out there.

This weeks article where he states: "...Why did Sony Fail?

Finally, Blu-Ray simply wasn’t ready. If anything killed the PS3, Blu-Ray did. By not being able to build enough drives, they sold one tenth the number of consoles they could have sold during the launch week and given the projected 2M (interesting to note that this projection mysteriously got adjusted down to 1M) they were supposed to produce in 2006 will be at about one tenth potential by year end.

Sony had arguably the best marketing campaign of the three systems this year and, even with the other two problems, would have sold out on the strength of its installed base had they been able to build product. But as mentioned above, this market collapses after the holidays and it is the holiday sales that set the foundation for game sales.
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback159_page3.html
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback159_page3.html


Discussion continued in the Format Battle thread....
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=769114

Probably that many have been shipped already and soon will be sold. But its already Dec 17th and console sales that are not done by Dec 24 drop like a rock. Tick Tock Tick Tock.

Yes, youre right the PS3 will probably not sell another one after Dec 24. They should just stop making them now.

From the above article:

First off he mentions the importance of 4th quarter sales. If the Xbox 360 has won both last years holiday and this years holiday seasons, then the PS3 has to buck the 1st quarter drop off historical trend to gain market share.

Finally, in what was clearly a slap at Sony, Microsoft came out with a $200 HD-DVD option and promptly sold out in many markets. While considered a movie only player, this virtually nullified Sony’s perceived advantage in the battle for the follow on to DVD for movies and enhanced the Xbox as a media device. Interesting point. His observation is that the Xbox 360 HD DVD option only has to create a perception of nullifying the PS3 Blu-ray trojan horse strategy. If its close, the PS3 Blu-ray penetration juggernaught is questioned adn may cause studios to reconsider their support.
Microsoft however, has made three mistakes. The most critical, and similar mistake to Nintendo, was not having enough consoles on the market last year. They could have sold between 3x and 5x the actual volume (maybe even more) and left 2005 with such a resounding win that neither Nintendo nor Sony constituted a real threat. ...
Finally they dramatically under-marketed in 2006 and will likely fall short of the projected 10M installed base numbers they have forecast as a result. This last point is also a traditional Microsoft mistake, Microsoft does good launch marketing but doesn’t do well sustaining demand generation marketing for some reason (often makes me wonder if folks there skipped a critical marketing class). With shortages for the other players, Microsoft is benefiting but probably about 50% of what they otherwise would have had they executed a strong demand generation campaign. Both Microsoft and Toshiba's HD DVD marketing has been week, but he's criticizing the Xbox 360 marketing now, and saying that MS is missing an opportunity to accelerate Xbox 360 penetration.
Microsoft’s biggest strengths are that they fight as a company (a very big company) and are experts in software (read game) development tools; and their weakness is poor sustaining marketing and uneven (both Nintendo and Sony are typically more consistently good) hardware designs. Sony’s strengths are marketing, and technical and industrial design competence; their weaknesses include corporate dysfunction (they don’t play well with themselves), a misplaced belief they can (or should) drive industry standards, and the resulting inability to create winning plans they can execute. Nice summary of the three corporate cultures.

Overall, this article seems fairly balanced to me, taking swipes at all three console makers.

What am I missing here, any comments?

Yes, youre right the PS3 will probably not sell another one after Dec 24. They should just stop making them now. of course they will continue to sell, just not as fast as if they were available for the gift buying season.

The point is that console sales slow after the 4th quarter. Sony is swimming upstream against historical trends to sell a lot after Xmas. That gives a large advantage to the Xbox 360.

In addition, after the holiday sales, game designers look to see the installed base and where they should committ development resources to. If there a lot more Xbox 360s than PS3's, they design for the Xbox 360 first and port over to the PS3, that means they don't take advantage of the PS3 unique strengths, and there are less exclusive killer apps for the PS3.

but no one thinks it is 1:1. Let me ask you this, let's keep it simple

Hi Anthony, welcome to the new thread. I was clarifying a point to Richard Paul. Though I do have to say, I've asked b2b this question a couple of times and he never quite answers it. He seems to answer in a way that implies 1:1, but has said that is not what he believes.

what do you think about 500k PS3 by Jan 1? how about 200k HD DVD players? 1/3 of the PS3s would be equivalent to 167k, the other players make the difference.

Let's break that down (I'll just use your 200,000 number for HD-DVD). If I use Andy Parsons (Pioneer) 33% estimate for PS3 buyers who turn into movie watchers that yields the following.

BD = 500,000 x .33 = 165,000
HD-DVD = 200,000

I think he's very optimistic though. This is my estimate, though it looks like in hind sight I was very generous on the number of PS3s Sony would be able to manufacture this year.

BD = 1,000,000 x .10 = 100,000
HD-DVD = 200,000

The added benefit of the PS3 is that even if you assume the attach rate is less you still have more players. In other word even if (over all) the disk sales are less for BD, it is easier to sell 100k copies of a popular title.

That depends entirely on the number of PS3s Sony can make, and the percentage of PS3 buyers that buy BD movies.

but shortage is happening because there are so many more players, the shortage would also be for HD DVD if HD DVD could make and sell that many players in such a short time.

Sony picked a shot gun strategy. They need millions of blue lasers so that some percentage of their blue lasers wind up in the hands of people willing to buy BD movies. The HD-DVD strategy (including the add-on) is more like a sniper. They only need enough blue lasers for movie watchers. They aren't selling blue lasers to gamer customers who turn around and sell their sealed copy of TN on e-bay or craig's list.

also let's say in a given neighbourhood there are 100 HD DVD players and 300 PS3s , let's also assume everyone buys local. The store sells the same number of BD movies as it does HD DVD. What is the theoretical max of a particular movie in HD DVD? how about BD?

Your example has changed the ratio from the beginning of your post. By your own numbers a typical neighborhood would be 200 HD-DVD players and 500 PS3s (or a set of members that yields the same ratio). Using my projection or Andy Parsons, the HD-DVD customers would likely produce more disc sales. I'm not sure why you would assume that everyone buys local. I never buy local. I buy all of my books, music and movies from Amazon. Their prices are usually less, there's no slaes tax and I almost always get free shipping. If you're concerned about local retail supply, I don't think either format will empty the shelves of any local store.

One thing I can point out is, current most biggest blue LD supplier in the world is Sony. Not Nichia, nor Sharp. Sanyo? Toshiba? Forget about them.
First, Sony is not a "supplier" as they are not selling them to others. Second, they may be able to produce more because they spent millions of dollars installing multiple parallel lines, to compensate for poor yields. Others can do the same, should the business call for such high capital equipment expenditure. So any additional capacity they might have, does not position them as being ahead in this respect.

What I saw innards of players from both camps, I found Toshiba's (both A1 and A2) looked much expensive to manufacture than BD players. Look, how many "chips" on the mainboard, how big the mainboard is, and so on...
You can't use such layman logic to account for cost. There are chips like the Intel quad core CPU that cost $1,000, and other CPUs which cost less than $5. We are not selling watermelons where you can count each and account for them that way.

As to PCB ("mainboard"), the number of layers and complexity of testing it determines its cost, which obviously you can't determine by just looking at it.

Above all, volume has a lot to do with this and we know very well that Toshiba sells more HD DVD players than a number of BD stand-alone players combined.

Anyway, I think you have and continue to be the lone voice saying BD is cheaper than HD DVD to manufacture. No BD company has officially claimed such a thing. And if it were true, I am sure they would not be so shy.

Yes, youre right the PS3 will probably not sell another one after Dec 24. They should just stop making them now.

I hope not. I'm planning to buy one, and I think Kosty was considering it as well. ;)

Back to your point. Sure they'll continue to sell, but if you think that the same pent up demand will exist in Q1, Q2 or Q3 as exists during the Chsritmas shopping season, you're wrong.

Then again, if Sony continues to produce PS3s at a slow trickle, it may not matter. It will become an entirely supply bound equation and demand will not be a factor.

In other words ....good news, bad news. The good news is Sony can sell as many PS3s as they can make. The bad news, Sony can only sell as many PS3s as they can make.

Overall, this article seems fairly balanced to me, taking swipes at all three console makers.

What am I missing here, any comments?

Oh... maybe the numbers he keeps pulling out of thin air. Like....
a near 20x installed base advantage against Sony in terms of next generation consoles by the end of 2006.

In the US the Xb360 will be around 4 million... (Robbie) can't even come close to telling any kind of truth...

b2b

First, Sony is not a "supplier" as they are not selling them to others. Second, they may be able to produce more because they spent millions of dollars installing multiple parallel lines, to compensate for poor yields. Others can do the same, should the business call for such high capital equipment expenditure. So any additional capacity they might have, does not position them as being ahead in this respect.........

Hi Amir. You bring up a good point regarding Sony compensating for their yield problems by building more production lines. Can you shed any light on why we haven't seen the benfits of such measures yet? It would seem that Sony should have ramped their capacity appropriately earlier this year in anticipation of the PS3 launch.

Some how the PS2 outsold the 360 in 2006. Who doesnt think the PS3 cant do the same?

Well

http://nexgenwars.com/

as of now :

Xbox 360 (8,646,088)
PS3 (469,779)

That's 8646088/469779 = 18.40 to 1

(Gee thats kinda close to a near 20x installed base advantage?)

Got better numbers, before you start calling someone else an idiot?

IIRC The North American numbers are probably 4 million to 200,000, thats around that 20:1 number.

Hi Amir. You bring up a good point regarding Sony compensating for their yield problems by building more production lines. Can you shed any light on why we haven't seen the benfits of such measures yet? It would seem that Sony should have ramped their capacity appropriately earlier this year in anticipation of the PS3 launch.
Actually you have seen the benefits :). Without them, there would be far less PS3s than there were.

The level of investment by Sony here is quite significant. But this also bought them additional problems in that getting all of those lines running and operational has been problematic. When yields are low, one does not know what makes things work, and what doesn't. So the multiple lines do not behave the same, requiring seperate attention to get them to produce good components. This is why one can't afford to add more lines even if cost were no object.

My hat is off to Sony engineers killing themselves trying to produce these diodes in any way, and at any cost they can.

Some how the PS2 outsold the 360 in 2006. Who doesnt think the PS3 cant do the same?Price
Availablity
Games Available
Irritation with Sony with putting a Blu-ray player in the console which jacks up the price.
Did I say price? ;)

Well

http://nexgenwars.com/

as of now :

Xbox 360 (8,646,088)
PS3 (469,779)

That's 8646088/469779 = 18.40 to 1

(Gee thats kinda close to a near 20x installed base advantage?)

Got better numbers, before you start calling someone else an idiot?

IIRC The North American numbers are probably 4 million to 200,000, thats around that 20:1 number.

Never mind.... I see "Elvis" has returned from the road tour... Y'all have fun with the chit-chat.. :)

b2b

Above all, volume has a lot to do with this and we know very well that Toshiba sells more HD DVD players than a number of BD stand-alone players combined.

70K G1 players isn't a "volume" that brings significant cost reductions with it, is it?

Anyway, I think you have and continue to be the lone voice saying BD is cheaper than HD DVD to manufacture. No BD company has officially claimed such a thing. And if it were true, I am sure they would not be so shy.

I'm not saying BD players are cheaper to manufacture, but why should they be more expensive? Is the tech so different? BD companys don't speak about it, I guess, because they like to sell their players with a margin, unlike Toshiba...

Funny, a MS employee commenting on another company losing money in the console business. :D

Why would anyone here who's a consumer care about the costs? If the prices are viable, that's what people care about.

Should the people who bought the Xbox and X360 last year have stopped and said "But it costs them so much to produce?"

What blithering nonsense.

Can someone name me a new technology or new system or new major advance that wasnt more expensive then the last? Can you name me one that hasnt significantly dropped after its initial launch? The BD players are already going down and PS3s will be plentiful. Why is price always the biggest argument. The Xbox 360 was so much more expenseive then the first xbox and the PS2. Where was the uproar then. Stop crying about price, put it on your credit card and enjoy. Or go to ebay. I bought me a factory sealed Samsung BD player for about 500 dollars, shipping included. I love it.

Some historical numbers to review from http://nexgenwars.com/

11/29

Xbox360 - 7,715,895
PS3 - 333,283

Current

Xbox360 - 8,647,082
PS3 - 469,925

Change between these dates

Xbox360 = +931,187
PS3 = +136,642

At this rate......well, you all know what happens at this rate. ;)

the PS2 has sold 35 million units to date. Where do you think most of them are gonna turn for upgrades on their system?

Can someone name me a new technology or new system or new major advance that wasnt more expensive then the last? Can you name me one that hasnt significantly dropped after its initial launch? The BD players are already going down and PS3s will be plentiful. Why is price always the biggest argument. The Xbox 360 was so much more expenseive then the first xbox and the PS2. Where was the uproar then. Stop crying about price, put it on your credit card and enjoy. Or go to ebay. I bought me a factory sealed Samsung BD player for about 500 dollars, shipping included. I love it.

I believe these are the correct launch prices. If someone sees a mistake, please correct me.

Nintendo
Gamecube - $199
Wii - $249

MS
Xbox - $299
Xbox360 - $299/$399

Sony
PS2 - $299
PS3 - $499/$599

the PS2 has sold 35 million units to date. Where do you think most of them are gonna turn for upgrades on their system?

In the US, most will go to the Xbox360, in Japan most will go to the Wii. ;)

In the US, most will go to the Xbox360, in Japan most will go to the Wii. ;)

Why would you say that? If i had a PS2 id stick with the Ps3 so I couild still play some of my old games on it. Why would I try to learn a new controller and make all of my games useless? Do you have any factual data to show why that would be the case?

...I'm not saying BD players are cheaper to manufacture, but why should they be more expensive? Is the tech so different? BD companys don't speak about it, I guess, because they like to sell their players with a margin, unlike Toshiba... Blu-ray players need to be able to focus on the surface and in the middle of the disk.

Why would you say that? If i had a PS2 id stick with the Ps3 so I couild still play some of my old games on it. Why would I try to learn a new controller and make all of my games useless? Do you have any factual data to show why that would be the case?

I'll just use a friend at work as an example. His son has a PS2, a lot of his friends had PS2s. During the last year a couple of his friends got Xbox360s. He's been bugging his father for an Xbox360 for months. His father told him, no, you're getting a PS3, I've bought you all of these games, we're not switching.

Then my friend realized how hard it would be to get a PS3 for Christmas. He decided that it would make much more sense to buy his son an Xbox360, since it was much easier to find, and it's what his son was asking for in the first place. He feels it's not such a big deal to just hold on to the PS2 for the old games.

I don't think this is such a unique scenario as parents start to scramble for what they're going to put under the tree. The fact that there are more games and it's a smaller bite out of their wallet helps as well.

as for factual data.....my previous post regarding sales numbers between 11/29 and today for the two consoles.

I agree it will happen sometimes. I didnt say it was absolute certanty. But 35 million people switching? An some of these people act like the xbox 360 sold all 8 million units in the first month it was released. No patience on this forum at all.

11/29

Xbox360 - 7,715,895
PS3 - 333,283

Current

Xbox360 - 8,647,082
PS3 - 469,925

Change between these dates

Xbox360 = +931,187
PS3 = +136,642

At this rate......well, you all know what happens at this rate.

why not include the PS2. It did better then bothe of those.

On the other hand wouldn't the %of units sold/arrived at retailers be more interesting?

I'll just use a friend at work as an example. His son has a PS2, a lot of his friends had PS2s. During the last year a couple of his friends got Xbox360s. He's been bugging his father for an Xbox360 for months. His father told him, no, you're getting a PS3, I've bought you all of these games, we're not switching.

Then my friend realized how hard it would be to get a PS3 for Christmas. He decided that it would make much more sense to buy his son an Xbox360, since it was much easier to find, and it's what his son was asking for in the first place. He feels it's not such a big deal to just hold on to the PS2 for the old games.

I don't think this is such a unique scenario as parents start to scramble for what they're going to put under the tree. The fact that there are more games and it's a smaller bite out of their wallet helps as well.

as for factual data.....my previous post regarding sales numbers between 11/29 and today for the two consoles.

so I went from xbox to PS. What is your point?

I may analyse it too starkly, and a little black and white, but the simple fact is that the Bluray players being sold today (with the "possible" exception of the PS3 - which we don't yet know can do PIP, etc) will not be able to perform the BD-LIVE features promised for the format. No one can argue with this.rdjam, care to show us where these BD-Live features were promised on any of the Blu-ray players sold? If not than one can easily argue with that and regardless saying that BD-Video players are obsolete shows a complete lack of interest in the truth since all Blu-ray movies will be able to play on BD-Video players.


In addition, after the holiday sales, game designers look to see the installed base and where they should committ development resources to. If there a lot more Xbox 360s than PS3's, they design for the Xbox 360 first and port over to the PS3, that means they don't take advantage of the PS3 unique strengths, and there are less exclusive killer apps for the PS3.That is a bit too simplistic, after all if game designers were that short sighted than no new game console would ever gain much developer support. Also there are already several great looking games in development for the PS3 today so even a limited launch of the PS3 this year does not mean that it won't do great next year.

rdjam, care to show us where these BD-Live features were promised on any of the Blu-ray players sold? If not than one can easily argue with that and regardless saying that BD-Video players are obsolete shows a complete lack of interest in the truth since all Blu-ray movies will be able to play on BD-Video players.
I believe the point is that the installed base of CE BD players won't ever be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs and players, even with future discs.

Nor will today's BD discs be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs, even with future players.

There's nothing to really buy today that would ever take advantage of the posited technical differentiators of BD.

To flip it around, if one assumed than hybrid players are the long term future, why would anyone ever NOT buy the HD DVD version of a title available in both formats?

I believe the point is that the installed base of CE BD players won't ever be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs and players, even with future discs.Did you read rdjam's signature were he implies that all Blu-ray players until June of next year are obsolete? That is what I find dishonest and are you actually telling me that you agree with what rdjam posted? After all that is a heck of a lot different than simply stating that BD-Video players do not have certain features that will be found on BD-Live players.


Nor will today's BD discs be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs, even with future players.Well actually that depends on the titles that you are comparing.


There's nothing to really buy today that would ever take advantage of the posited technical differentiators of BD.Well I know of certain Blu-ray discs that take advantage of the larger capacity, higher bandwidth, and/or BD-J features of Blu-ray. Now of course you can disagree on whether you think any of those advantages are necessary, but you can't dispute that such discs already exist.


To flip it around, if one assumed than hybrid players are the long term future, why would anyone ever NOT buy the HD DVD version of a title available in both formats?Wait one second. If you are asking about the long term future how the heck do you know that the future Blu-ray versions of movies won't be better? Also if one assumed that Universal will start supporting Blu-ray next year why would consumers want hybrid players to become standard?

My hat is off to Sony engineers killing themselves trying to produce these diodes in any way, and at any cost they can.I am glad there are companies willing to take the risk with new technologies. Sony has been doing this for years. One can criticize their zeal for proprietary formats, but they have always tended to push the technology envelope. They were slowing down recently in terms of technology push, but they are back with Blu-ray and Cell. Same goes for Toshiba/Canon for pursuing SED.

It is easy to criticize certain companies for charging premium, but one also has to understand they have to recover their investment. If Sony started to follow instead of setting tech trends, it would be a shame. They might be unsuccessful at times, but at least they try. It is easier to follow than to set the trend (well, actually, sometimes it is not easy even to follow a trend). It is also easier to aim low and succeed than aim high and succeed. Same applies to yields of BD50 and blue lasers. And then there is Murphy's law .

A new technology (especially the ones aiming higher: Blu-ray, SED) will always be expensive initially. Consumers get the benefit [I]after the economy of scale kicks in. Early adopters like us pay for the R&D not only the equipment cost, and probably most of us understand that. There is always going to be a chance that $200 player of tomorrow will be much better and cheaper than our current gen expensive players.

Yes, my hat's off to engineers and scientists who still work on bringing new technologies and to companies who still believe in research part of the R&D.

I believe the point is that the installed base of CE BD players won't ever be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs and players, even with future discs.

Nor will today's BD discs be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs, even with future players.

There's nothing to really buy today that would ever take advantage of the posited technical differentiators of BD.Uh oh! You may have to eat your words in future! That is too bold!

I believe the point is that the installed base of CE BD players won't ever be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs and players, even with future discs.

Nor will today's BD discs be able to match the experience of today's HD DVD discs, even with future players.

There's nothing to really buy today that would ever take advantage of the posited technical differentiators of BD.

To flip it around, if one assumed than hybrid players are the long term future, why would anyone ever NOT buy the HD DVD version of a title available in both formats?

Today must be the only day left for you then.

Here's the latest console sales figures for JAPAN for the period of 12/4 - 12/10:

Console #sold #change %'age change (Change from previous period/week)

- DS Lite: 309,630 +132,729 75.03%
- Wii: 85,439 -264,919 (75.61%)
- PS3: 50,171 +18,735 59.6%
- Xbox 360: 35,343 +31,290 772.02%
- PS2: 30,460 +7,345 31.78%
- PSP: 28,930 +5,013 20.96%
- GBA SP: 1,896 +324 20.61%
- GBoy Micro: 1,555 +303 24.20%
- Gamecube: 569 -252 (30.69%)
- DS Phat: 167 +27 19.29%
- GBA: 17 -5 (22.73%)
- Xbox: 6 -5 (45.45%)

link:
http://www.nintendowiifanboy.com/2006/12/15/japanese-hardware-sales-4-december-10-december-terminator-ed/

I agree it will happen sometimes. I didnt say it was absolute certanty. But 35 million people switching? An some of these people act like the xbox 360 sold all 8 million units in the first month it was released. No patience on this forum at all.

Nintendo was once the king of consoles. It's a competitive business, and with each new generation of consoles, the ball goes back into play.

why not include the PS2. It did better then bothe of those.

On the other hand wouldn't the %of units sold/arrived at retailers be more interesting?

The PS2 is still selling strong, but it's the last generation. Why not talk about the fact that DVD players are outselling HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?

.........That is a bit too simplistic, after all if game designers were that short sighted than no new game console would ever gain much developer support. Also there are already several great looking games in development for the PS3 today so even a limited launch of the PS3 this year does not mean that it won't do great next year.

Developers always expect new consoles to have a smaller installed base compared to the last gen. But when looking at the latest gen of consoles, they're looking for the winners and loosers. They have their own bets to place and they want those bets to be winners.

For PS3 to do great next year, Sony has to work out their problems making them. I believe it's already too late though. The Xbox360 has enough of a lead that the momentum rolling into next year is in its favor. If a lot of your friends are on xbox live, you want to be on xbox live as well. Once you reach the tipping point it becomes all about the momentum.

Did you read rdjam's signature were he implies that all Blu-ray players until June of next year are obsolete? That is what I find dishonest and are you actually telling me that you agree with what rdjam posted? After all that is a heck of a lot different than simply stating that BD-Video players do not have certain features that will be found on BD-Live players.
I'd rather not get into arguing about who said what, so I'll say what I'm saying:
The lack of support for the full "BD Live" set of features, including advanced audio codecs, means that neither of today's discs nor players deliver on the promise of the format, or enable them to match the interactivity and overall experience of current HD DVD players or advanced titles.

Well I know of certain Blu-ray discs that take advantage of the larger capacity, higher bandwidth, and/or BD-J features of Blu-ray. Now of course you can disagree on whether you think any of those advantages are necessary, but you can't dispute that such discs already exist.
Those are technical aspects - what's the point in using higher bandwidth or capacity if it doesn't deliver a meaningful advantage for the consumer. Are the best BD discs today that use them to provide a better experience than the best HD DVD titles? Would today's BD players be able to use the advanced features of those discs if they existed? No in both cases.

Wait one second. If you are asking about the long term future how the heck do you know that the future Blu-ray versions of movies won't be better? Also if one assumed that Universal will start supporting Blu-ray next year why would consumers want hybrid players to become standard?
I'm asking why anyone would buy a BD disc or player before the long term future, since the oft-touted advantages of it isn't available in either content or players currently available.

No patience on this forum at all.
Amen to that. Impatience combined with anecdotal accounts, chosen carefully for maximal support for the person's PoV.

A single sample makes for poor statistics, someone observed once.

I am glad there are companies willing to take the risk with new technologies. Sony has been doing this for years. One can criticize their zeal for proprietary formats, but they have always tended to push the technology envelope. They were slowing down recently in terms of technology push, but they are back with Blu-ray and Cell. Same goes for Toshiba/Canon for pursuing SED.

It is easy to criticize certain companies for charging premium, but one also has to understand they have to recover their investment. If Sony started to follow instead of setting tech trends, it would be a shame. They might be unsuccessful at times, but at least they try. It is easier to follow then set the trend (well, actually, sometimes it is not easy even to follow a trend). It is also easier to aim low and succeed than aim high and succeed. Same applies to yields of BD50 and blue lasers. And then there is Murphy's law .

A new technology (especially the ones aiming higher: Blu-ray, SED) will always be expensive initially. Consumers get the benefit [I]after the economy of scale kicks in. Early adopters like us pay for the R&D not only the equipment cost, and probably most of us understand that. There is always going to be a chance that $200 player of tomorrow will be much better and cheaper than our current gen expensive players.

Yes, my hat's off to engineers and scientists who still work on bringing new technologies and to companies who still believe in research part of the R&D.
I say, an inspiring post, this. (emphasis mine)

If a company is always pushing the envelope into several areas, i think proprietary formats are an expected & logical by-product cos its too much work to gather everyone round to your format and then enter the market. At least, Sony dares to do it. Hats off for that.

Its a far far better thing to have tried and failed than to have rested on one's laurels. The PS3 is a prime example, imo. Engineering the cutting-edge Cell and BD into it, being patient while the 360 sold millions, developing a console that is quieter and smaller than the 360 + brick, while also running cooler.. that is some awesome development to support the equally inspired research.

Nintendo was once the king of consoles. It's a competitive business, and with each new generation of consoles, the ball goes back into play.

2CH: agree that a win cannot be taken for granted. But at the same time The PS3 is an incredible machine.

Ona different note, this is the HD disk forum on an AV side. The PS3/ 360 add-on is really just i9nteresting as far as movies are concerned. And the simple fact is that even if the PS3 loses market share and loses dominence, right know when it counts for BD/HD DVD and HD disks in general it will do what is important right now and that is putting a lot of players out there in the hands of J6P. It has already put BD in 500k+ homes

The PS2 is still selling strong, but it's the last generation. Why not talk about the fact that DVD players are outselling HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?

360 is selling well because it is one years old, the production and distribution has built up and is not in the "new console" world like the PS3. Deciding that the PS3 lost because it could not manufacture in a week as many as the 360 sold is insane. That is why I asked about the PS2. Like you said it is old, it is at the end of its life, but still doing better at this time then the rest.

360 is selling well because it is one years old, the production and distribution has built up and is not in the "new console" world like the PS3. Deciding that the PS3 lost because it could not manufacture in a week as many as the 360 sold is insane. That is why I asked about the PS2. Like you said it is old, it is at the end of its life, but still doing better at this time then the rest.

Anthony.....the last generation was PS2, Xbox and Gamecube.....the current generation is PS3, Xbox360 and Wii. If you recall, there was supposed to be much less time between the Xbox360 and the PS3, but Sony had to delay.

Amen to that. Impatience combined with anecdotal accounts, chosen carefully for maximal support for the person's PoV.

A single sample makes for poor statistics, someone observed once.

The statistics were previously posted....

11/29

Xbox360 - 7,715,895
PS3 - 333,283

Current

Xbox360 - 8,647,082
PS3 - 469,925

Change between these dates

Xbox360 = +931,187
PS3 = +136,642

I provide an anecdotal case to put a human face to what the numbers are showing us is happening. Feel free to ignore the anecdotal story and focus on the numbers. ;)

although the best seller presently is last generations model PS2. This may indicate that generation cycles are not aligned between manufacturers....

ken

When will PS3 catch up to the PS2 sales?

I think PS3 is also competing against PS2... until Sony stops making PS2.

Hong.

When will PS3 catch up to the PS2 sales?

I think PS3 is also competing against PS2... until Sony stops making PS2.

Hong.

I would guess when PS3 manufacturing catches up so they have the ability to meet the demand, allowing a downscale in PS2 manufacturing;

The sales figures comparing XBox and PS3 are highly skewed reflections of demand, given the limited PS3 production capacity.... I would think these numbers would have more meaning in 6 months or so... But always fun to watch them never-the-less..

ken

For PS3 to do great next year, Sony has to work out their problems making them. I believe it's already too late though.I find it a tad amazing that only a month after the PS3 has launched that people are already saying that they believe it is too late for the PS3. In my opinion it is jumping the gun to say that considering how many years the PS3 will be on sell.


The lack of support for the full "BD Live" set of features, including advanced audio codecs, means that neither of today's discs nor players deliver on the promise of the format, or enable them to match the interactivity and overall experience of current HD DVD players or advanced titles.Good promotional post, but besides ignoring all the of advantages of Blu-ray I think you forgot that the PS3 can decode up to 7.1 channels of Dolby TrueHD. And than there is the Sony Blu-ray player which can output 1080p24. And lets not forget the fact that Blu-ray titles such as League of Extraordinary Gentlemen are already using BD-J. As such don't declare with such certainty that Blu-ray is inferior to HD DVD.


Those are technical aspects - what's the point in using higher bandwidth or capacity if it doesn't deliver a meaningful advantage for the consumer. Are the best BD discs today that use them to provide a better experience than the best HD DVD titles?Can you tell me with absolute certainty that none of the Blu-ray discs released didn't look better because they had a higher maximum peak bit rate to work with? That is what matters, and I am very skeptical when people tell me so confidently that 30 Mbps is a high enough maximum bit rate for anything you would want on a HD disc.


Would today's BD players be able to use the advanced features of those discs if they existed? No in both cases.Come now you have to define "advanced features" pretty narrowly for that statement to be considered accurate.


I'm asking why anyone would buy a BD disc or player before the long term future, since the oft-touted advantages of it isn't available in either content or players currently available.Well it could be because of the advantages that Blu-ray has, the greater studio support it has, the greater number of CE players to choose from, or even the belief that Blu-ray will win this format war. Personally I am happy with the Blu-ray discs I have bought so far and are you actually going to tell me that I shouldn't have bought them?

I find it a tad amazing that only a month after the PS3 has launched that people are already saying that they believe it is too late for the PS3. In my opinion it is jumping the gun to say that considering how many years the PS3 will be on sell.

I stand by it (regarding the console war that is.....still too close on the format war). I'm sure you'll remember to point out my mistake repeatedly if I turn out to be wrong. Not really feeling there's a high likelihood of that though. ;)

I stand by it (regarding the console war that is.....still too close on the format war). I'm sure you'll remember to point out my mistake repeatedly if I turn out to be wrong. Not really feeling there's a high likelihood of that though. ;)

Might better take the crystal ball in for an overhaul... ;)

You will notice two very steep curves (the red ones, that start with "PS") and a third one that will be showing up soon... You know, the "one" that is a BD player too.. :)

http://www.vgcharts.org/images/us_hw.png

b2b

Might better take the crystal ball in for an overhaul... ;)

You will notice two very steep curves (the red ones, that start with "PS") and a third one that will be showing up soon... You know, the "one" that is a BD player too.. :)

http://www.vgcharts.org/images/us_hw.png

b2b

I'll have you tune it up if it turns out wrong, so far it seems to be working just fine. ;)

As for the chart, it's very pretty, and timely. Just 5 minutes ago I saw a commercial for the PS2 come on tv. Now I ask you, did Microsoft buy tv spots for Xbox after they launched the Xbox 360? Is Nintendo buying tv spots for the Gamecube now that the Wii is shipping?

What's that smell in the air???? I believe that's the smell of desperation. Sony knows they can't make PS3s in any real volume, and they're loosing their market share to MS and Nintendo. Better flog the PS2 for all it's worth. It doesn't help BD, but hey, desperate times call for desperate measures.

Good promotional post, but besides ignoring all the of advantages of Blu-ray I think you forgot that the PS3 can decode up to 7.1 channels of Dolby TrueHD. And than there is the Sony Blu-ray player which can output 1080p24. And lets not forget the fact that Blu-ray titles such as League of Extraordinary Gentlemen are already using BD-J. As such don't declare with such certainty that Blu-ray is inferior to HD DVD.
The PS3 is certainly the most complete BD player so far, and I'll leave it for others to argue the portion of people willing to watch movies on it.

But we still don't know if it's full BD-Live yet, do we?

Can you tell me with absolute certainty that none of the Blu-ray discs released didn't look better because they had a higher maximum peak bit rate to work with? That is what matters, and I am very skeptical when people tell me so confidently that 30 Mbps is a high enough maximum bit rate for anything you would want on a HD disc.
Name the BD title you've seen that provides better PQ and AQ than the best HD DVD title you've seen.

What actually matters is the quality of the titles in the real world.

Well it could be because of the advantages that Blu-ray has, the greater studio support it has, the greater number of CE players to choose from, or even the belief that Blu-ray will win this format war. Personally I am happy with the Blu-ray discs I have bought so far and are you actually going to tell me that I shouldn't have bought them?
I'm happy for you that you're happy with them.

But you're happy with them because they're "good enough" for your needs, not because they provided as good an experience as an equivalent set of HD DVD titles.

I'll have you tune it up if it turns out wrong, so far it seems to be working just fine. ;)

As for the chart, it's very pretty, and timely. Just 5 minutes ago I saw a commercial for the PS2 come on tv. Now I ask you, did Microsoft buy tv spots for Xbox after they launched the Xbox 360? Is Nintendo buying tv spots for the Gamecube now that the Wii is shipping?

What's that smell in the air???? I believe that's the smell of desperation. Sony knows they can't make PS3s in any real volume, and they're loosing their market share to MS and Nintendo. Better flog the PS2 for all it's worth. It doesn't help BD, but hey, desperate times call for desperate measures.

I bring data and you go off on some tangent about smelling stuff... What's up with that ?? Is tangible data a foreign subject to the HD-DVD mentality ?? Data is your friend..

I can tell you this, all the drum beating in the world isn't going to save HD-DVD if they don't get some other people building the players and studios stamping the discs...

b2b

I bring data and you go off on some tangent about smelling stuff... What's up with that ?? Is tangible data a foreign subject to the HD-DVD mentality ?? Data is your friend..

I can tell you this, all the drum beating in the world isn't going to save HD-DVD if they don't get some other people building the players and studios stamping the discs...

b2b

Perhaps I was too flippant b2b. Can you please expand on how the PS and PS2 sales numbers are relevant to the format war? Will Sony running PS2 ads to hold on to market share (because they can't make enough PS3s) help BD in some way? I would understand the relevance of the chart if you were posting this a couple of months ago and we were not aware that Sony couldn't make PS3s in quantity. Now it seems to serve as little more than a picture of Sonys dominance in past generations.

The chart is releavant in as much as it shows that Sony is making healthy profits off of PS2 sales. That's all, but with ppl claiming that Sony will bankrupt itself in 2007, such data is useful to have.

What do you expect sony to do wrt marketing for holiday season: Sit Still? Since demand for the limited PS3s is so high that any ads are a waste of money, Sony will obviously try to maintain mind-share over the holidays with PSP and PS2 etc. Also, people spending on PS2 are unlikely to also spend on the 360.


Whether sony-bashers eat their words in 2007 or not, the PS3 will be the hit of all time wrt consoles, IMO.

I reckon that the PS3 will outsell the PS2 over its lifetime.

Perhaps I was too flippant b2b. Can you please expand on how the PS and PS2 sales numbers are relevant to the format war? Will Sony running PS2 ads to hold on to market share (because they can't make enough PS3s) help BD in some way? I would understand the relevance of the chart if you were posting this a couple of months ago and we were not aware that Sony couldn't make PS3s in quantity. Now it seems to serve as little more than a picture of Sonys dominance in past generations.

Well if you look real close a the chart, you will see that almost every console was introduced right before the holiday season showing a small spike. It is the year after introduction and that years holiday season that really show the potential sales curves.

The best curve on the chart is the PS2 and the only one that crosses the #2 seller (PS). The PS2 is just a phenomenal seller and if people keep buying it, why should Sony quit making it ? It is outselling the Xb360 and combined PS2 + PS3 sales next year will still put Sony at the top of the heap.

b2b

The chart is releavant in as much as it shows that Sony is making healthy profits off of PS2 sales. That's all, but with ppl claiming that Sony will bankrupt itself in 2007, such data is useful to have.

What do you expect sony to do wrt marketing for holiday season: Sit Still? Since demand for the limited PS3s is so high that any ads are a waste of money, Sony will obviously try to maintain mind-share over the holidays with PSP and PS2 etc. Also, people spending on PS2 are unlikely to also spend on the 360.


Whether sony-bashers eat their words in 2007 or not, the PS3 will be the hit of all time wrt consoles, IMO.

I reckon that the PS3 will outsell the PS2 over its lifetime.
That's a pretty tall order, but from the looks of the engineering they have done as much as anyone could have done and delivered the product that can do that.

I consider it the first really 21st century CE product to be introduced. Maybe the Toshiba SED HDTVs will be the second... ;)

b2b

I couldn't let this one pass...
Correct.

Now 1.5 Mbps DD+ is by all accounts perceptually lossless for current titles, although I haven't seen conclusive research yet to verify this would be true in all cases. But I suspect that we may determine that DD+ is "good enough" for perceptually perfect reproduction of any film soundtrack in any extant listening environment.

Hmm... There it is again.. "Good Enough"

HD-DVD = "The look and sound of good enough" ;)

b2b

That's a pretty tall order, but from the looks of the engineering they have done as much as anyone could have done and delivered the product that can do that.b2b
I should qualify by adding that the PS3 will outsell the PS2 in the Developed World.

Given how cheap the PS2 is and how many great games exist for it, I think the developing world will buy a hefty number of them (and xbox) in the coming years.

I don't see Sony discontinuing manufacturing and advertising (in the developing world) anytime soon for the PS2.

rdjam, care to show us where these BD-Live features were promised on any of the Blu-ray players sold? If not than one can easily argue with that and regardless saying that BD-Video players are obsolete shows a complete lack of interest in the truth since all Blu-ray movies will be able to play on BD-Video players.


That is a bit too simplistic, after all if game designers were that short sighted than no new game console would ever gain much developer support. Also there are already several great looking games in development for the PS3 today so even a limited launch of the PS3 this year does not mean that it won't do great next year.

The point is it's a FACT that there are players today that will not be able to use known, planned features for discs.

Was interactivity via the ethernet port promised for the Pioneer BR player? No. n a very Clinton-esque way, Pioneer never promised the consumer anything they didn't deliver. However, Pioneer (as only one example) hasn't exactly mentioned in any prominent manner that the new latest and greatest next generation, ethernet enabled player WILL NOT allow for interactive BD-J features either.

They call this a "sin of omission".

So, when Princess Tea Party comes out, and Darling Daughter is all excited to try it out, do you really think Dad is going to be pleased to find out his less-than-year-old $1500 BR player handle it?

I don't. And I think all the "Well we never promised it to you." pleadings in the world ain't gonna matter one bit.... even if technically correct.

Yeah, yeah... I know... "buyer beware"... but I've challanged you, Richard, and others here to show us how a buyer can really be aware from what the BDA/Mfg'ers disclose... and what I see is a recipe for discontent.

Uh oh! You may have to eat your words in future! That is too bold!

You don't find it a little disconcerting to have to say that, yet folks are being asked to plonk down significant $$$ today?

So, when Princess Tea Party comes out, and Darling Daughter is all excited to try it out, do you really think Dad is going to be pleased to find out his less-than-year-old $1500 BR player handle it?
Theoretically, you are 100% correct. But let's not kid ourselves, there are not many families with little girls buying $1,500 BD players at this point in time. And, if Daddy is doing so, he's doing it for himself, not so that his daughter can do the Disney Princess Tea Party in 2 years. So practically, it's not as huge an issue as people here would make it out to be.

I can't either :). For a guy who doesn't even have a Radio Shack A/V system, you may want to leave comments about high fidelity audio to someone else!

"Attack the post, not the poster"... remember?

I can't either :). For a guy who doesn't even have a Radio Shack A/V system, you may want to leave comments about high fidelity audio to someone else!

It doesn't look like you need to. A "good enough" RS system would be a perfect match to "good enough" format like HD-DVD. Got any model numbers to recommend ?? ;)

Is this one of those "bits & bandwidth" issues with HD-DVD not being able to cut the mustard if you throw in too many lossless audio tracks ??

I really don't care, I just figured all of the lossless audio fans would be up in arms if all they're getting is DD+ with HD-DVD. Plus too if DD+ is "good enough" i don't understand why HD-DVD makes decoding all those supported audio codecs mandatory, with DD+ being "good enough" and whatnot. :)

b2b

I just figured all of the lossless audio fans would be up in arms if all they're getting is DD+ with HD-DVD.
As a lossless fan, I can not get "up in arms" about getting 24bit/48kHz (or is it 96kHz?) 1.5 Mbps DD+ instead of 16bit/48kHz Dolby TrueHD. I would be the first to say that we need some good DBT's to make a reasoned decision. Like Cjplay said anyway, getting a dithered 16 bit representation of the original 24 bit soundtrack is not "lossless" anyway.

The only things that I have had to do a personal comparison is the 640 kbps DD+ versus 16bit/48kHz TrueHD on some Warner titles. And then there is the Pat Metheny Group: Way Up disc (HD DVD) that lets you compare two lossy codecs; DD+ to dts-HD Encore. Too bad the linear PCM on that disc was only stereo. I've noticed the most differences with surround channels on 5.1 tracks during low level sound passages (better directivity -- more spacious). Dolby TrueHD and dts seem a little bit better than the DD+. YMMV

What is the bitrate for DD+ on the Pat Metheny Group disc?

As a lossless fan, I can not get "up in arms" about getting 24bit/48kHz (or is it 96kHz?) 1.5 Mbps DD+ instead of 16bit/48kHz Dolby TrueHD. I would be the first to say that we need some good DBT's to make a reasoned decision. Like Cjplay said anyway, getting a dithered 16 bit representation of the original 24 bit soundtrack is not "lossless" anyway.

The only things that I have had to do a personal comparison is the 640 kbps DD+ versus 16bit/48kHz TrueHD on some Warner titles. And then there is the Pat Metheny Group: Way Up disc (HD DVD) that lets you compare two lossy codecs; DD+ to dts-HD Encore. Too bad the linear PCM on that disc was only stereo. I've noticed the most differences with surround channels on 5.1 tracks during low level sound passages (better directivity -- more spacious). Dolby TrueHD and dts seem a little bit better than the DD+. YMMV

What is the bitrate for DD+ on the Pat Metheny Group disc?
A "way back" comment on 16/48 vs 20/48 from Roger Dressler...
We have no arguement with your points. Striving for the best has kept us occupied for 40 years. 48/16 might well be "the lowest possible quality" for a movie soundtrack, but realize that until the recent roll out of Digital Cinema (another area for Dolby), no one ever heard that level of transparency in a movie theater from 35mm digital systems. Additionally, every master made, granted until recently, was 48/16, as that's what DA-88 tapes carried. It was the mastering format of choice for most of Hollywood, if not all.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8147370&&#post8147370

b2b

Rather than:http://www.btinternet.com/~tonyrichardson/horse.gif
I'll let FilmMixer and Cjplay answer question for the number/percentage of recent masters with 16 bit vs 20 to 24 bit sound.

You don't find it a little disconcerting to have to say that, yet folks are being asked to plonk down significant $$$ today?As for the use of "may", that is because it is in future. I have not watched any HD-DVD movie yet, so I cannot compare. I am sure Ben has not watched all the Blu-ray movies, yet it is his choice to predict a bland future for Blu-ray. You don't find that a little disconcerting?

As for "plonking down" $$$, I don't mind since I understand what I am doing. I won't cry tomorrow if there is a better/similar player out there which is cheaper. We generally spend more on the content in the long run. Player cost is just an upfront cost (or at least can be rationalized that way). I am investing in the content and indirectly, in the format, not in the player. 1st gen is never perfect. I know that. In fact, I am already waiting for likes of Denon and Marantz to come out with players to see what they can offer. If I had purchased HD-A1, I would have done with the same assumptions, just that it would have been the wrong format from my perspective. People who bought HD-DVD players are not stupid either. If HD-DVD dies in future, I am sure those who bought 1st gen HD-DVD players would not cry. It was their choice to be early adopters. Just an example; replace it with Blu-ray if you wish.

---

Anyway, I no longer remember what the point is! :) Now that I finally got PS3 (after returning the Samsung some time back), I may not get enough motivation to hang around here that much. I am discovering the console-gaming to be fun too. I never thought I would say that, ever. And no, I am not ashamed of using a console as a player; far from it! All I need now is a 1080p projector. Cost of PS3 seems peanuts now that I am thinking of next steps.

Theoretically, you are 100% correct. But let's not kid ourselves, there are not many families with little girls buying $1,500 BD players at this point in time. And, if Daddy is doing so, he's doing it for himself,


Well, by introducing Daddy in our tale of woe, and then calling it HIS player I wasn't trying to kid anybody. I thought it was pretty clear.

... not so that his daughter can do the Disney Princess Tea Party in 2 years. So practically, it's not as huge an issue as people here would make it out to be.

Given that Princess Tea Party is the default scenario for advanced BR interactivity here on AVS, I was trying to concoct an example that didn't emasculale Daddy too badly.

But feel free to substitute any BD-Live functionality example you wish. If he-who-purchased-BR-deck has no idea he can't use soon-to-be advanced disc functionality on his latest man-cave toy, I bet he won't be happy.

That's where we disagree: You think it will be a minor issue. I suspect that the expectaion for $1500 players is going to be quite a bit higher than that. This is the sort of thing that causes a ground-swell of discontent amongst people. And as they say, perception IS reality.

BTW: Are you suggesting advanced BD-Live functionality on BR discs is 2 years out?

As for the use of "may", that is because it is in future. I have not watched any HD-DVD movie yet, so I cannot compare. I am sure Ben has not watched all the Blu-ray movies, yet it is his choice to predict a bland future for Blu-ray. You don't find that a little disconcerting?

As for "plonking down" $$$, I don't mind since I understand what I am doing. I won't cry tomorrow if there is a better/similar player out there which is cheaper. We generally spend more on the content in the long run. Player cost is just an upfront cost (or at least can be rationalized that way). I am investing in the content and indirectly, in the format, not in the player. 1st gen is never perfect. I know that. In fact, I am already waiting for likes of Denon and Marantz to come out with players to see what they can offer. If I had purchased HD-A1, I would have done with the same assumptions, just that it would have been the wrong format from my perspective. People who bought HD-DVD players are not stupid either. If HD-DVD dies in future, I am sure those who bought 1st gen HD-DVD players would not cry. It was their choice to be early adopters. Just an example; replace it with Blu-ray if you wish.

---

Anyway, I no longer remember what the point is! :) Now that I finally got PS3 (after returning the Samsung some time back), I may not get enough motivation to hang around here that much. I am discovering the console-gaming to be fun too. I never thought I would say that, ever. And no, I am not ashamed of using a console as a player; far from it! All I need now is a 1080p projector. Cost of PS3 seems peanuts now that I am thinking of next steps.


We are AVS'ers. We don't count. ;)

In any case, in my mind there is a difference between somebody making a prediction about something, vs. defending what the BDA folks are doing: encouraging people to by machines that will NOT enable all features in upcoming titles without disclosing what their investment doesn't buy them.

I expect better, cheaper things to come out in the future but I also expect in 6 months (June 07) that the BR player I paid 1k for will work for all BR movies that get released.

I expect better, cheaper things to come out in the future but I also expect in 6 months (June 07) that the BR player I paid 1k for will work for all BR movies that get released.No doubt. I agree. However, I don't expect all the new features to work -- ones that weren't supported when I bought the player -- but expect gracious behavior from the player. That is, new features should not break the features that are supported. One such important feature is "play the damn movie". I expect that to work.

Since these players are highly programmable, I may be pleasantly surprised if new features are also usable in these players, but that would be a wish.

We are AVS'ers. We don't count. ;) Right now we do! :) This may be the only time when we do count!

Right now we do! :) This may be the only time when we do count!

Enjoy your fifteen minutes. :)

We are AVS'ers. We don't count. ;)

In any case, in my mind there is a difference between somebody making a prediction about something, vs. defending what the BDA folks are doing: encouraging people to by machines that will NOT enable all features in upcoming titles without disclosing what their investment doesn't buy them.

Excuse me, is your HD DVD player BD-LIVE capable (or equivalent)?

It seems you are very interested in having those features. You are certainly welcome to buy a BD-LIVE player when it is available.

Enjoy your fifteen minutes. :)I did! :)

I stand by it (regarding the console war that is.....still too close on the format war). I'm sure you'll remember to point out my mistake repeatedly if I turn out to be wrong. Not really feeling there's a high likelihood of that though.Well you are free to be as pessimistic about the PS3 as you like.


But we still don't know if it's full BD-Live yet, do we?Not yet, and it is good to see that though no one even mentioned this you went out of your way to spread uncertainty about this.


Name the BD title you've seen that provides better PQ and AQ than the best HD DVD title you've seen.Well that wouldn't be hard to do since I haven't actually watched any HD DVD titles. As for your question it is stated in such a way to be completely irrelevant since there are a few reference titles on both HD formats. Once again can you tell me with absolute certainty that none of the Blu-ray discs released didn't look better because they had a higher maximum peak bit rate to work with?


I'm happy for you that you're happy with them.

But you're happy with them because they're "good enough" for your needs, not because they provided as good an experience as an equivalent set of HD DVD titles.Impressive piece of propaganda, not only did you bash what I bought you even criticized Blu-ray as a format at the same time. It is even more impressive considering you don't even know what I bought or even if it is available on HD DVD. Still when did propaganda against Blu-ray ever rely on anything as trivial as facts or the truth?

The point is it's a FACT that there are players today that will not be able to use known, planned features for discs.Sure, and you have stated this many times over and why exactly do you want to keep repeating it? Do you hate Blu-ray? Do you support HD DVD? What are you reasons for doing this?

Call me skeptical but I don't think this is being done simply to inform consumers. After all there are many issues that consumers need to be informed of and this is just one of them. How many HD DVD player owners bought their player without knowing the technical differences between Blu-ray and HD DVD? How many of them know the differences between BD-J and HDi? How many of them knew which studios and CE companies were supporting Blu-ray and HD DVD? It seems to me that if somebody really wanted to inform consumers they would want to inform them of everything.

The point is it's a FACT that there are players today that will not be able to use known, planned features for discs.

agree scaesare, but that is true for both sides

Well that wouldn't be hard to do since I haven't actually watched any HD DVD titles. As for your question it is stated in such a way to be completely irrelevant since there are a few reference titles on both HD formats. Once again can you tell me with absolute certainty that none of the Blu-ray discs released didn't look better because they had a higher maximum peak bit rate to work with?

Richard, you do know that that bitrate was really by design only going to be used for MPEG2, right?
I understand you back blu ray. But are you hoping it will get better because it has to? I think many of us believe that A: it won't and B: HD DVD gives us high quality already without having to wait for nirvana.
Right now I have seen Click, Monster House and Into the Blue (I know, couldn't pass up jessica alba in HD with only a bikini on even after the reviews) and from those movies I haven't seen anything that has blown me away (I always said I was going to buy a PS3 for games and blu ray, I did). I am not saying they are poor, but so far I give HD DVD titles the edge to picture quality. I am waiting for that "blown away" title that will change my mind, but I don't think it will come. HD DVD has proven that 30GB is enough for a good quality, 3 hour movie (I have not seen any artifacts that Gary talked about with King Kong using my Toshiba or MS addon). And yes, I have watched on a 1080P RPTV and a 720P projector.

Well if you look real close a the chart, you will see that almost every console was introduced right before the holiday season showing a small spike. It is the year after introduction and that years holiday season that really show the potential sales curves.

The best curve on the chart is the PS2 and the only one that crosses the #2 seller (PS). The PS2 is just a phenomenal seller and if people keep buying it, why should Sony quit making it ? It is outselling the Xb360 and combined PS2 + PS3 sales next year will still put Sony at the top of the heap.

b2b

Ok b2b, I finally got some time to sit down and review your chart. First of all, these aren't charts of sales volume, but installed base. At least in my line of work, when we discuss sales curves, they are sales volume curves, not installed base.

That aside, yes, it takes time for a new product to build installed base, and yes the PS2 built installed base quickly. So here are some observations on the chart. There is only one historical example of a console getting into the market ahead of the curve, building up an installed base of millions of units and then loosing to a challenger that came to market a year later. That product was the Dreamcast and it lost to the PS2.

The general rule is that when a console can get to market before its generation of competitors and reach the 10 Million installed base level first, it goes on to rule that generation.

Sega had a disaster with the Saturn, alienated EA and was on the ropes financially when they were selling Dreamcast. So yes, the PS2 came to market and within 9 months had surpassed the installed base of the Dreamcast. The PS2 also had a 1 year lead on the Xbox and Gamecube and made it to the 10 million mark before those consoles.

Two questions for you...do you believe the PS3 has any chance of passing the Xbox360 installed base within 9 months of its launch? Do you believe the PS3 has any chance of getting to a 10 million unit installed base before the Xbox360?

BTW, I never said Sony should quit making the PS2, it's generating a profit after all. My point was that I've never seen a console maker run tv spots for their old console after the launch of their new console. There is only one reason for this, Sony doesn't have PS3s to sell. If they did, every tv spot from Sony games would be about the PS3.

Richard, you do know that that bitrate was really by design only going to be used for MPEG2, right?It is irrelevant why they decided on a maximum AV bit rate of 48 Mbps and to imply that it is only beneficial for MPEG-2 is done without any evidence.


I understand you back blu ray. But are you hoping it will get better because it has to? I think many of us believe that A: it won't and B: HD DVD gives us high quality already without having to wait for nirvana. I don't think you have been keeping up on the quality level of recent Blu-ray titles to make such a negative statement. Either that or you have begun to believe a lot of the FUD about Blu-ray that is routinely spread on this forum.


HD DVD has proven that 30GB is enough for a good quality, 3 hour movieOkay, but I have before said that HD DVD was a good video format. I just think that Blu-ray is a better video format.

Okay, but I have before said that HD DVD was a good video format. I just think that Blu-ray is a better video format.
Amen

Ok b2b, I finally got some time to sit down and review your chart. First of all, these aren't charts of sales volume, but installed base. At least in my line of work, when we discuss sales curves, they are sales volume curves, not installed base.

That aside, yes, it takes time for a new product to build installed base, and yes the PS2 built installed base quickly. So here are some observations on the chart. There is only one historical example of a console getting into the market ahead of the curve, building up an installed base of millions of units and then loosing to a challenger that came to market a year later. That product was the Dreamcast and it lost to the PS2.

The general rule is that when a console can get to market before its generation of competitors and reach the 10 Million installed base level first, it goes on to rule that generation.

Sega had a disaster with the Saturn, alienated EA and was on the ropes financially when they were selling Dreamcast. So yes, the PS2 came to market and within 9 months had surpassed the installed base of the Dreamcast. The PS2 also had a 1 year lead on the Xbox and Gamecube and made it to the 10 million mark before those consoles.

Two questions for you...do you believe the PS3 has any chance of passing the Xbox360 installed base within 9 months of its launch? Do you believe the PS3 has any chance of getting to a 10 million unit installed base before the Xbox360?

BTW, I never said Sony should quit making the PS2, it's generating a profit after all. My point was that I've never seen a console maker run tv spots for their old console after the launch of their new console. There is only one reason for this, Sony doesn't have PS3s to sell. If they did, every tv spot from Sony games would be about the PS3.

I really don't get your "installed base" vs "sales" differentiation. They can't get "installed" if they don't get "sold".

"Two questions..." question. Don't follow the game stuff close enough to guess. I would say that Sony would be happy with an "installed" base of 10 million PS3 by Feb.-March 2008. Just as MS would be for Xb360 Feb.-March 2007.

Promoting a profitable product is somehow bad business. ?? Don't think so. PS2 is dirt cheap and money in your pocket means that in most cases you kept it out of your competitors.. ;)

b2b

Interesting graph, bonez. Though that's only for the US of course where Microsoft have enjoyed their greatest success. I'd love to see graphs for Europe and Japan as well. They might be even more fun!

No doubt. I agree. However, I don't expect all the new features to work -- ones that weren't supported when I bought the player -- but expect gracious behavior from the player. That is, new features should not break the features that are supported. One such important feature is "play the damn movie". I expect that to work.

Since these players are highly programmable, I may be pleasantly surprised if new features are also usable in these players, but that would be a wish.

Agreed, obviously I don't expect my player that doesn’t even have a internet connection to all of a sudden start playing Live features come June 07. But what I am worried about is as you said I expect it to “play the damn movie”, all BR movies.

Look at some of the newer movies for HD DVD where the movie wont play at all unless you have updated your firmware in order to be compatible for U-Control extra features that you may or may not use during the movie.

I’ll be flipping if I hear that because a movie may have some incompatible Live feature that I may not be able to play the movie at all after spending 1k on a player.

Wicked Pictures, Dimension DVD Produce First Adult HD-DVD

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CANOGA PARK, Calif. - Wicked Pictures has become the first adult video company to penetrate the HD-DVD market with its release of Jonathan Morgan’s slasher-movie spoof, Camp Cuddly Pines Power Tool Massacre. The title is tentatively slated to ship on Friday.

Representatives from Wicked and authoring house Dimension DVD brought a check disc of the finished product to AVN’s offices for a demonstration Monday afternoon. Boasting vivid color and detail, the anamorphic widescreen presentation showcases the unprecedented quality and interactivity of the HD format.

“We started doing the preliminary work on this in March,” said Jackie Ramos, vice president of DVD production for Wicked Pictures. “We really started conceptualizing it before that point; we've been talking about going over to HD-DVD for over a year now. As soon as we heard that great strides were being made in the mainstream world with this format, we’ve always had our ear to the ground. There were a lot of hurdles…it was a lot more work than we thought. I’ve heard through the grapevine that other companies have been ready to do this, but that when it came down to it, they weren’t ready for the technical problems that go along with it.”

Wicked selected Camp Cuddly Pines as its first HD-DVD release based on the title’s popularity. Morgan's feature won the AVN's Best Sex Comedy Award in 2006. “We looked in our vault to see what we had as far as hi-definition, and Camp Cuddly Pines seemed like an obvious choice,” Ramos said. “It’s been a very popular bestseller for us, and a lot of our newer stuff was still being edited when we started testing the new format. We asked Dimension for their opinion, and they agreed on Camp Cuddly -- when they had the encoding ready, we said, okay, let’s roll with it.”

One of the major hurdles that Wicked and Dimension encountered was the scripting of advanced content menus, which allow viewers to navigate options without interrupting the feature.

“The functionality of the disc is the same quality as any mainstream product out there,” said Dimension DVD President Daniel Milstein, who has worked closely with Ramos from the project’s inception. “We used the same exact encoder that the major mainstream studios use…it took about two weeks to encode the feature, frame-by-frame. It takes a lot of processing power.”

“The first one is always the hardest,” added Dimension VP Robert Brickman. “Now that we know the procedure, we’ll be able to do it faster the next time out.”

According to Ramos, Wicked already has additional titles in the HD queue, including the AVN-nominated Curse Eternal. “We’re going to follow up with our other new releases after that,” he said. “It’s been a long, hard road doing this; at times, it got tense. The leading edge of technology is a dangerous place to be sometimes. But we’re really happy with the outcome. When I took the check disc home and watched it on my plasma TV, I was amazed by the color and the definition. It’s incredible.”

Camp Cuddly Pines Power Tool Massacre will be available at this January’s AVN Adult Entertainment Expo. The HD-DVD package will also contain a standard-def DVD sampler with five sex scenes from Wicked releases including the aforementioned Curse Eternal, Sleeping Around, Brad Armstrong’s **** and Manhunters and Julia Ann Hardcore.

"While getting to the market first certainly is very exciting for us, it was more important to us that we put out a properly functioning disc,” said Wicked Pictures President Steve Orenstein. “Jackie has spent countless hours with Dimension DVD to make sure we release a quality product, and I think we have definitely succeeded."

Thanks to forum member Bigkhrisdogg for first posting this.

No doubt. I agree. However, I don't expect all the new features to work -- ones that weren't supported when I bought the player -- but expect gracious behavior from the player. That is, new features should not break the features that are supported. One such important feature is "play the damn movie". I expect that to work.

Since these players are highly programmable, I may be pleasantly surprised if new features are also usable in these players, but that would be a wish.

Fare enough. But, as has been part of my argument all along, HOW DOES ONE KNOW THIS TODAY?.

Seriously. Please show me where anybody is being told that new features are already approved and coming so they can make that decision. Other than the 0.000001% of the population that frequents this forum. Gimme a manufacturer link, an in-store display, a BDA link.. anything that allows me to come to the same conclcusion you did if I wasn't an AVS'er.

Right now we do! :) This may be the only time when we do count!

Oh... right...

UNITE!
:D

Excuse me, is your HD DVD player BD-LIVE capable (or equivalent)?

It seems you are very interested in having those features. You are certainly welcome to buy a BD-LIVE player when it is available.

I'll have to assume that was facetious: HD DVD doesn't use BD-J, but rather HDi, therefore BD-J profiles are not applicable.

I AM interested in such features however, and to the best of my knowledge there are no known approved HDi features that will be forthcoming that my player is incapable of. What's more, one of them, PiP, is already in use on titles and works on my player. If my Toshiba A2 is incapable of something like netowrk interactivty, you are darn right I will be pissed.

Insiders here have told us that as PART OF THE PLAN new features coming on BD-Live discs will not work on BD-Video players. Insiders have told us that THERE IS NO SUCH PLAN for HDi.

Allow me to state the principle once again, however: What I really want is the opportunity to make a fully informed decision regarding what my $1500 buys me.

What's so hard about the BDA simply being upfront to the consumer who's heart and wallet they want so badly to win over? And why would you not support that?

But we still don't know if it's full BD-Live yet, do we?



Not yet, and it is good to see that though no one even mentioned this you went out of your way to spread uncertainty about this.

Umm... Richard? Nobody moentioned this?

You and I (and others) have been debating the issues surrounding the uncertainlty of BD-Live profile compliance for a week or more now.

Sure, and you have stated this many times over and why exactly do you want to keep repeating it? Do you hate Blu-ray? Do you support HD DVD? What are you reasons for doing this?

Call me skeptical but I don't think this is being done simply to inform consumers. After all there are many issues that consumers need to be informed of and this is just one of them. How many HD DVD player owners bought their player without knowing the technical differences between Blu-ray and HD DVD? How many of them know the differences between BD-J and HDi? How many of them knew which studios and CE companies were supporting Blu-ray and HD DVD? It seems to me that if somebody really wanted to inform consumers they would want to inform them of everything.

You may be skeptical. That's fine with me. Why I keep stating it: because for some inexplicable reason it seems that folks here would rather not agree it's in the best intrests of we as consumers for the BDA to disclose this information up front.

And (prepare to be shocked), I agree with you that consumers should know as much as possible.

For those other issues, there seem to be readily avilable sources of information: There are published release calendars, titles have clear distinctive format labeling on the case, boxes have industry recognizable logos on them for codec support, CE companies clearly state what format a player is on their advertising collateral, etc...

This is one area where, IMO, people are NOT being given the information to make an informed decision that will impact them.

Seriously: I got's no problems criticizing even things I like or own. Why would you NOT want to have more info out in the wild about this?

agree scaesare, but that is true for both sides

Can you give me a HDi example?

I don't think you have been keeping up on the quality level of recent Blu-ray titles to make such a negative statement. Either that or you have begun to believe a lot of the FUD about Blu-ray that is routinely spread on this forum.



I'll give you this Ricard: it takes something (cajones?, gall?) to criticize somebody who has personally evaluated both formats, right after you admitted to not having watched a HD DVD movie.

Toshiba launches HD-E1 DVD system in Europe (http://news.techwhack.com/4885/hd-e1-dvd-europe/)

Japanese tech giant Toshiba has launched their latest HD DVD player in the European market.

The company now wants the European customer to use their HD-E1 DVD system rather than the rival Blu-Ray format.

What has the world come to? :D

Toshiba further said that they are aiming at 500,000 worldwide sales of its HD-DVD player by March 2007.


Okay, a new figure to pummel into a pulp. Ding!

Toshiba launches HD-E1 DVD system in Europe (http://news.techwhack.com/4885/hd-e1-dvd-europe/)



What has the world come to? :D

Quote:
Toshiba further said that they are aiming at 500,000 worldwide sales of its HD-DVD player by March 2007.

Okay, a new figure to pummel into a pulp. Ding!

Only thing I can figure is they are using the inventory count for blue laser diodes they bought from Nichia to meet purchase contracts.. or it's another "pass the pipe" prediction to keep WB happy. Trouble is, WB is reported to be in rehab... ;)
Their new player being launched in Europe will retail for about £450. This is almost half the price of competing Blu-ray players in the market.

Yikes !! 450GBP = 884USD

Is the EU being taken to the cleaners so US products are cheap ??

b2b

Re the BD Live vs BD Video features:

I don't think the real issue is the expectation of current players to use BD Live features. The issue is current BD Video players being unable to use future BD Video functionality. The best example at the moment is PiP. Talk has explicitly stated that PiP is NOT a BD Live feature. It is a required BD Video feature after Jun 07. So next summer we will have BD Video players that can perform all BD Video functions and BD Video players that will not perform all BD Video functions. This has great potential for consumer confusion.

Yikes !! 450GBP = 884USD

Is the EU being taken to the cleaners so US products are cheap ??

b2b

It is a result of the devaluation of the dollar vs. the pound.

Re the BD Live vs BD Video features:

I don't think the real issue is the expectation of current players to use BD Live features. The issue is current BD Video players being unable to use future BD Video functionality. The best example at the moment is PiP. Talk has explicitly stated that PiP is NOT a BD Live feature. It is a required BD Video feature after Jun 07. So next summer we will have BD Video players that can perform all BD Video functions and BD Video players that will not perform all BD Video functions. This has great potential for consumer confusion.

Agreed. And resentment from those who purchased without being told this.

I really don't get your "installed base" vs "sales" differentiation. They can't get "installed" if they don't get "sold".

"Two questions..." question. Don't follow the game stuff close enough to guess. I would say that Sony would be happy with an "installed" base of 10 million PS3 by Feb.-March 2008. Just as MS would be for Xb360 Feb.-March 2007.

Promoting a profitable product is somehow bad business. ?? Don't think so. PS2 is dirt cheap and money in your pocket means that in most cases you kept it out of your competitors.. ;)

b2b

A sales volume graph would show units sold each quarter (or perhaps month). This will help you more easily identify product transtions from one generation to the next.

10 million PS3s by feb-march 2008? Is that what they promissed the studios? ;)
In any case this is why I say the format war is still undecided. Sony could end up loosing the console war to MS in North America and Nintendo in Japan, and still manage to cary the format war.......it just becomes much harder to pull off.

Yes, promoting a profitable product can be bad business. You don't buy ads for Windows XP after Vista is released. The PS2 already has huge market share, you don't need to spend money building that installed base anymore. This is purely to hold off the competition (as you stated in your post), because they can't make many PS3s. It always comes back to that same problem, and time is not on Sony's side in this.

A sales volume graph would show units sold each quarter (or perhaps month). This will help you more easily identify product transtions from one generation to the next.

10 million PS3s by feb-march 2008? Is that what they promissed the studios? ;)
In any case this is why I say the format war is still undecided. Sony could end up loosing the console war to MS in North America and Nintendo in Japan, and still manage to cary the format war.......it just becomes much harder to pull off.

Yes, promoting a profitable product can be bad business. You don't buy ads for Windows XP after Vista is released. The PS2 already has huge market share, you don't need to spend money building that installed base anymore. This is purely to hold off the competition (as you stated in your post), because they can't make many PS3s. It always comes back to that same problem, and time is not on Sony's side in this.

The chart shows the sales progress. It's just not a fine granularity that you speak of. You can clearly see the "sales" spikes of all the different consoles around the holiday sales periods.

10 million US sales would match the PS2 for its first year.. Nothing wrong with that.. ;) see attached file..

Yeez.. What sort of pointy-hair school of business did you go to..?? Profits are bad ??? :)

b2b

I don't think you have been keeping up on the quality level of recent Blu-ray titles to make such a negative statement. Either that or you have begun to believe a lot of the FUD about Blu-ray that is routinely spread on this forum.

I bought Monster House which, according to some, shows blu ray at it's best. And contrary to you I have bought into both and have bought and watched movies on both before I make any conclusion. How can you say anything negative about HD DVD if you yourself admit to never having watched any movie on that format? How do you know it's not better than Blu Ray? How do you know the movies your watching are hands down better than HD DVD. The above statement you make is now showing the hypocracy in your posts. You can't have it both ways. Someone that has both (and there are many others here) have watched in the comfort of their own home and not one has said that blu ray is hands down better. But somehow you want to contradict their views without YOU having done the same thing.

PS. maybe hypocritcal was the wrong word. But I still stand by my assertion that to have a stand based on just viewing one format and not both is not common sense and in a way insulting to those who did.

It's also useless to form opinions on the relative merits of both formats on the basis of the first year of releases.

Okay, a new figure to pummel into a pulp. Ding!

I've heard that figure before (500K by Toshiba fiscal year end). But, it's how 3.8 million more are going to sell in the rest of 2007 that is the puzzling figure.

Gary

It's also useless to form opinions on the relative merits of both formats on the basis of the first year of releases.

Really? Useless?? For a YEAR??

You've formed no opionion of the merits of each format thus far at all?

That's absurd. Perhaps not absolute conclusions, but I can darn well form valid relative opinions at this point.

The chart shows the sales progress. It's just not a fine granularity that you speak of. You can clearly see the "sales" spikes of all the different consoles around the holiday sales periods.

10 million US sales would match the PS2 for its first year.. Nothing wrong with that.. ;) see attached file..

Ok, we'll make a note of that then, by November 17, 2007 10 million PS3s in North America. ;)


Yeez.. What sort of pointy-hair school of business did you go to..?? Profits are bad ??? :)

b2b

Change my statements as you like, but you've already admitted it. Sony's spending ad money on the PS2 becuase they don't have PS3s. Hey, here's an idea, Sony can come out and say that the PS2 is so wildly popular that even the PS3 can't compete. That'll fool the studios, right? ;)

... Sony's spending ad money on the PS2 because they don't have PS3s ...Is that a mystery that there are not enough PS3?

Every sale of PS2 in the absence of PS3 puts money in Sony's pockets, and likely takes sale away from competition. Until PS3 volumes increase it is a wise choice to keep advertising PS2. PS2 or PS3, they both strengthen the same PlayStation brand.

Sorry if I missed your point.

Ok, we'll make a note of that then, by November 17, 2007 10 million PS3s in North America. ;)



Change my statements as you like, but you've already admitted it. Sony's spending ad money on the PS2 becuase they don't have PS3s. Hey, here's an idea, Sony can come out and say that the PS2 is so wildly popular that even the PS3 can't compete. That'll fool the studios, right? ;)

I can't understand why you ignore the data on the charts. PS sold for 8 years (11 including PS1)
After 11 years of existence as one of the most popular consoles of all time, the PSone is finally getting the kibosh from Sony. The original PlayStation, through its original and PSone iterations, has sold over 100 million units, and we're sure brought joy to millions of users worldwide, ourselves included.

The PS2 is only 6 years old.. Lots of $$ still left to make with that generation of HW..
History

Only a few million users had obtained consoles by the end of 2000 due to manufacturing delays. The PlayStation 2 was popular after its release so it was quite hard to find one on retailer shelves. Another popular option was purchasing the console online through auction websites such as eBay.

Yet, the PS2 initially sold well partly on the basis of the strength of the PlayStation brand and its backwards compatibility, selling over 900,000 units in the first weekend in Japan. This allowed the PS2 to tap the large install base established by the PlayStation - another major selling point over the competition. Later, Sony gained steam with new development kits for game developers and more PlayStations for consumers.

I would say there is a good chance that PS3 will provide the same results over time, including to help make BluRay the replacement optical disc format for DVD.. ;)

b2b

Really? Useless?? For a YEAR??

You've formed no opionion of the merits of each format thus far at all?

That's absurd. Perhaps not absolute conclusions, but I can darn well form valid relative opinions at this point.It is not absurd not to pass a judgment based on initial releases. Blu-ray started with a dud and went on improving; HD-DVD started with a bang and went on giving miss and hits. Of course, it is not entirely useless to look at releases in this period. It does show who is learning faster (or how schedule impact is creeping into the quality). There are people doing HiDef transfers who are learning and also realizing what people can see on their displays (and complain). People doing the encoding are also learning. Processes have to improve. Encoders are improving too. It is a gradual process.

Actually, Blu-ray has more bandwidth and capacity, so most Blu-ray supporters are willing to be patient with the format. I can understand the desire of HD-DVD supporters to pass the judgment right now! :)

Has HD-DVD already reached its limit? I don't know. Only time will tell. Personally, though, I think it is the studios that matter. This will be true for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray.

Umm... Richard? Nobody moentioned this?

You and I (and others) have been debating the issues surrounding the uncertainlty of BD-Live profile compliance for a week or more now.Well just to point out the obvious but why do you think that Ben suddenly commented on the fact that no one knows yet if the PS3 is BD-Live compliant? It was an attempt to spread uncertainty about the PS3 and a rather obvious one at that.


And (prepare to be shocked), I agree with you that consumers should know as much as possible.Good.


For those other issues, there seem to be readily avilable sources of information:Maybe on the internet if you know where to look, but how many people who bought into HD DVD did so fully understanding the differences between it and Blu-ray? I would say at best maybe 10%. Point is most people buying either HD format know very little about the two HD formats.


Seriously: I got's no problems criticizing even things I like or own. Why would you NOT want to have more info out in the wild about this?I wouldn't mind this info being widely known, but I don't see the need to attack the BDA simply because they made two profiles for Blu-ray players. And to be blunt that is what you have been doing over the past few weeks.


I'll give you this Ricard: it takes something (cajones?, gall?) to criticize somebody who has personally evaluated both formats, right after you admitted to not having watched a HD DVD movie.Thought it is true I have not watched any HD DVD titles I have watched Blu-ray titles that have been released on both HD formats. As such I may not be as ignorant as you assume and Blu-ray may not be as bad you seem to believe it is. Also did you not see the statement he made where he said that Blu-ray would not get any better than those three titles he watched? No offense but that is why I thought he had not been keeping up on the reviews of the latest Blu-ray releases.

Well just to point out the obvious but why do you think that Ben suddenly commented on the fact that no one knows yet if the PS3 is BD-Live compliant? It was an attempt to spread uncertainty about the PS3 and a rather obvious one at that.

Well, tell us, is PS3 BD-Live compliant? Should be a yes, no, or potentially yes. I know I won't get any sleep tonight unless I know. :D

Well, tell us, is PS3 BD-Live compliant? Should be a yes, no, or potentially yes. I know I won't get any sleep tonight unless I know. :D
PS3 is fully BD-Live compliant. It will only need 'slight mod'* via firmware upgrade for some discs.

Go to sleep now! :)


* Similar to one required to play some U-control enabled HD-DVDs on Tosh players.

I bought Monster House which, according to some, shows blu ray at it's best.Haven't seen it yet and though what I have read about it is fairly good I certainly wouldn't consider it the best disc to show off Blu-ray. In fact they even added synthetic grain to it, which didn't help any. In my opinion if you really want to get a good idea of what Blu-ray can do you should look at this list of reviews of Blu-ray titles (http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/reviews.html) and try renting a few of the higher rated discs. The reviewer is pretty subjective but in terms of finding great looking discs that can be useful. From what I have seen I would recommend giving X-Men 3 and Ice Age 2 a try.


And contrary to you I have bought into both and have bought and watched movies on both before I make any conclusion. How can you say anything negative about HD DVD if you yourself admit to never having watched any movie on that format?Well just to state the obvious but it was actually you stating negative things about Blu-ray.


How do you know it's not better than Blu Ray?Well for one any encoding done for HD DVD can be transferred to Blu-ray so at worst they are equal. As for why I believe Blu-ray is better than HD DVD haven't I explained my reasons for why I believe that?


How do you know the movies your watching are hands down better than HD DVD.Well for one thing I never actually said that. Secondly wouldn't that depend on which titles we are comparing? No offense but unless you think that "National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation" shows off what HD DVD can do you should know that content makes a great deal of difference in terms of AV quality.


The above statement you make is now showing the hypocracy in your posts.No, just a statement from a poster who has actually seen great looking encodings on Blu-ray and is tired of all the BS that is posted about Blu-ray.


Someone that has both (and there are many others here) have watched in the comfort of their own home and not one has said that blu ray is hands down better.Once again it depends on which titles you are comparing.


But somehow you want to contradict their views without YOU having done the same thing.So now you are going to claim that my opinions on the format war are worthless simply because I won't buy a HD DVD player? You know that I won't do that and even though that demand is without merit you act as though you are offended because I won't. I guess you must have read the book "How to make unreasonable demands and act offended when the other person won't agree to them.".


PS. maybe hypocritcal was the wrong word. But I still stand by my assertion that to have a stand based on just viewing one format and not both is not common sense and in a way insulting to those who did.So your saying that you believe that I am insulting others by not buying a $500 HD DVD player, and of course several discs to go along with it, and that those who won't buy players for both HD formats show a lack of common sense?

Well just to point out the obvious but why do you think that Ben suddenly commented on the fact that no one knows yet if the PS3 is BD-Live compliant? It was an attempt to spread uncertainty about the PS3 and a rather obvious one at that.


Good.


Maybe on the internet if you know where to look, but how many people who bought into HD DVD did so fully understanding the differences between it and Blu-ray? I would say at best maybe 10%. Point is most people buying either HD format know very little about the two HD formats.


I wouldn't mind this info being widely known, but I don't see the need to attack the BDA simply because they made two profiles for Blu-ray players. And to be blunt that is what you have been doing over the past few weeks.


Thought it is true I have not watched any HD DVD titles I have watched Blu-ray titles that have been released on both HD formats. As such I may not be as ignorant as you assume and Blu-ray may not be as bad you seem to believe it is. Also did you not see the statement he made where he said that Blu-ray would not get any better than those three titles he watched? No offense but that is why I thought he had not been keeping up on the reviews of the latest Blu-ray releases.

Richard, you continue to read what you want, rather than what I write.

Your responses to my questions are so skewed I don't know where to begin, so I won't.

Richard, you continue to read what you want, rather than what I write.

Your responses to my questions are so skewed I don't know where to begin, so I won't.Personally I believe I answered your questions fairly and just because you didn't like my answers doesn't mean they are not correct. For instance when I mentioned that BD-Live has higher requirements than HD DVD you said that didn't matter yet at the same time you repeatedly implied that HD DVD is better because it only has one profile for players. You have made several positive statements about HDi while ignoring any comparison of BD-Live to HD DVD or for that matter even BD-J to HDi. It just seems to me that you don't really seem that interested in comparing interactivity between the two HD formats so much as pointing out what current Blu-ray players can't do.

Has HD-DVD already reached its limit? I don't know. Only time will tell. Personally, though, I think it is the studios that matter. This will be true for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray.
C'mon, we absolutely know it hasn't.

For example, there hasn't been a single title released using the most recent version of the VC-1 encoder, and we're already working on the version after that. Lots of efficiency and especially usability improvements coming.

More broadly for PQ, we're on the cusp of the DI revolution making it down to shiny disc.

Also, there's plenty of depth in the interactive layer that hasn't made it into shipping titles yet. And yes, those'll work with the existing players.

It's isn't just that BD has to eventually catch up to where HD DVD is today. It has to catch up to where HD DVD is going.

Personally I believe I answered your questions fairly and just because you didn't like my answers doesn't mean they are not correct. For instance when I mentioned that BD-Live has higher requirements than HD DVD you said that didn't matter yet at the same time you repeatedly implied that HD DVD is better because it only has one profile for players. You have made several positive statements about HDi while ignoring any comparison of BD-Live to HD DVD or for that matter even BD-J to HDi. It just seems to me that you don't really seem that interested in comparing interactivity between the two HD formats so much as pointing out what current Blu-ray players can't do.

I know that's what you believe Richard.

And incidentally, it's not that I didn't like your answers... it's that they seldom had anything to do with what I was talking about.

It is not absurd not to pass a judgment based on initial releases. Blu-ray started with a dud and went on improving; HD-DVD started with a bang and went on giving miss and hits. Of course, it is not entirely useless to look at releases in this period. It does show who is learning faster (or how schedule impact is creeping into the quality). There are people doing HiDef transfers who are learning and also realizing what people can see on their displays (and complain). People doing the encoding are also learning. Processes have to improve. Encoders are improving too. It is a gradual process.

Actually, Blu-ray has more bandwidth and capacity, so most Blu-ray supporters are willing to be patient with the format. I can understand the desire of HD-DVD supporters to pass the judgment right now! :)

Has HD-DVD already reached its limit? I don't know. Only time will tell. Personally, though, I think it is the studios that matter. This will be true for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray.

"Form an opinion" != "pass judgement".

Please look at wco81 said.

As for limits, I seriously doubt we're even close for either format. That doesn't mean I can't form an opinion regarding who's ahead a the moment, what I don't like about both formats, what I do like about both formats, and where I see one side aiming the barrel at a foot while releasing the safety.

C'mon, we absolutely know it hasn't.

For example, there hasn't been a single title released using the most recent version of the VC-1 encoder, and we're already working on the version after that. Lots of efficiency and especially usability improvements coming.

More broadly for PQ, we're on the cusp of the DI revolution making it down to shiny disc.

Also, there's plenty of depth in the interactive layer that hasn't made it into shipping titles yet. And yes, those'll work with the existing players.

VC1 != HD-DVD. But good work with VC-1, by the way.

And did I just catch you making future promises? ;)

By the way, I don't think HD-DVD has reached its limit (but I don't know -- only future can tell). I just raised the question in the context -- and then added that it matters a lot what studios do (with what the formats offer). So, I definitely agree with these points.

It's isn't just that BD has to eventually catch up to where HD DVD is today. It has to catch up to where HD DVD is going.If HD-DVD was going for 45GB disc or higher bandwidth, I would have agreed with you on this one too. Unfortunately, this doesn't look likely. I looks to me that on picture quality front, BD has already caught up -- with MPEG2 at that! If VC-1 keeps on improving -- faster than AVC -- everyone will use that except Sony. So that will only create a wash.

On interactivity front, Blu-ray has to catch up. But that again rests in the hands of studios once hardware shows up (or gets upgraded). Both HDi and BD-J offer what they can. It is up to the studios to make use of them. No format holds any advantage here since we are talking about one year down the line. This is more in the creative domain than technical domain for all practical purposes.

Bottomline: Specification-wise, there is not a contest between HD-DVD and Blu-ray. In practice, at worst (for Blu-ray) it will end up as a wash/tie, where as at best, Blu-ray can pull ahead because of inherently superior specs. Rather than predict the future, I would rather wait and see. Remember, I support Blu-ray; I am used it! :)

"Form an opinion" != "pass judgement".

Please look at wco81 said.

As for limits, I seriously doubt we're even close for either format. That doesn't mean I can't form an opinion regarding who's ahead a the moment, what I don't like about both formats, what I do like about both formats, and where I see one side aiming the barrel at a foot while releasing the safety.

People are carrying on like HD-DVD titles will always look better than Blu-Ray titles, based on releases in the first few months of the launch of both formats.

Yes they've passed judgement and bet with their dollars and now their advocacy.

"Form an opinion" != "pass judgement".

Please look at wco81 said.

As for limits, I seriously doubt we're even close for either format. That doesn't mean I can't form an opinion regarding who's ahead a the moment, what I don't like about both formats, what I do like about both formats, and where I see one side aiming the barrel at a foot while releasing the safety.I know wco81 used the term first, but I believe merits of both formats are inherent. What you are forming an opinion about is the execution of the companies on both sides. I guess even the ardent of the Blu-ray supporters would agree that HD-DVD had a better execution so far (and I would personally agree that it is ahead right now, overall, because of interactivity since quality has come to a tie more or less).

However, I wouldn't form an opinion on the merits of a format based on this -- they are inherent. There may be a time lag, but inherent merits won't change. There is a long way to go as far as execution is concerned. Only thing missing on Blu-ray is PiP, IMHO, which gives a slight lead to HD-DVD at the moment. It is the inherent merits of Blu-ray as a format that people like me support Blu-ray. I believe the market will force all those involved to get their act together sooner or later. This is why I am patient. Besides, it is not that I am not getting good movies to watch at all.

But, I see what are trying to say. Everyone has a right to form an opinion.

[By the way, I think forming an opinion and passing the judgment are almost the same except for semantics. But I haven't checked the dictionary. Boy I do have a lot of free time]

Well just to point out the obvious but why do you think that Ben suddenly commented on the fact that no one knows yet if the PS3 is BD-Live compliant? It was an attempt to spread uncertainty about the PS3 and a rather obvious one at that.Well - I think it's pretty ridiculous. If the PS3 could decode two streams at once and therefore be able to do PIP, and therefore be capable of being BD-Live compatible, then I think someone in the BD camp would be up here in a flash to tell everyone.

Therefore, I think it's a pretty well-founded conclusion to figure that the PS3 can't do it. Of course, one will have to wait till sometime next year for confirmation either way....

I wouldn't mind this info being widely known, but I don't see the need to attack the BDA simply because they made two profiles for Blu-ray players. You don't, but I do...

If they had thought the whole thing through up front, there would have been no need to have two standards - the "second phase", otherwise known as BD-Live, is, IMO, a "tack-on" to try to match the features of HDi.

So here's what Bluray has ended up with - BD-J, in the currewnt Bluray players, is inferior to HDi. So we're told to "wait for BD-Live" 'cos it'll do the same stuff as HDi (like internet and PIP), but the only problem is that ALLLLL of the standalone Bluray players to date don't seem to be able to do BD-LIVE...

And you say that people shouldn't be upset about this when they dropped a GRAND for these BD players?

When I use the word obsolete, it's my opinion that it's pretty accurate here....

I really don't get your "installed base" vs "sales" differentiation. They can't get "installed" if they don't get "sold".

B2B: one is a running total

Two questions for you...do you believe the PS3 has any chance of passing the Xbox360 installed base within 9 months of its launch? Do you believe the PS3 has any chance of getting to a 10 million unit installed base before the Xbox360?

in 9 months no, but why are you asking? do you think every 360 bought will in 9m be associated to an add-on?



BTW, I never said Sony should quit making the PS2, it's generating a profit after all. My point was that I've never seen a console maker run tv spots for their old console after the launch of their new console. There is only one reason for this, Sony doesn't have PS3s to sell. If they did, every tv spot from Sony games would be about the PS3.


they did the same when the PS2 came out. sales of PS1s continued. That is why when they introduced the PS3 they talked about 10 years. 5years new console 1-2 old console the rest 3world console then gets decomissioned.

Passing final judgement.

How's that?

:D

Can you give me a HDi example?

why HDi? I already gave the MC example

why HDi? I already gave the MC example
Managed copy isn't even approved yet and is a non-issue for both formats at this time, that's why.

HDi kicks BD-J's tail-number and BD-Live won't work on pretty much all existing standalone Bluray players in existence at this time...

BTW - BD folks afraid of my salient argument in http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9221966&&#post9221966 above, it seems...

By the way - in the HD News thread, we've just found out that Disney has released Flightplan as a VC1 encode! And they say Casanova is next in VC1....

And BDboys said it wasn't true....

VC1 != HD-DVD. But good work with VC-1, by the way.
Thanks. Although I didn't do the hard parts. I just talk about them :).

And did I just catch you making future promises? ;)
That the A1 player's interactive implementation can do a lot of stuff that hasn't been done yet? It sure will.

By the way, I don't think HD-DVD has reached its limit (but I don't know -- only future can tell). I just raised the question in the context -- and then added that it matters a lot what studios do (with what the formats offer). So, I definitely agree with these points.
Ah, I was talking about HD DVD improving in the absolute sense (better than today).

Obviously, if BD titles adopt VC-1, that'll neutralize that, and it'll be back to the real-world advantages with interactivity, audio, replication, etcetera.

I can't understand why you ignore the data on the charts. PS sold for 8 years (11 including PS1)

The PS2 is only 6 years old.. Lots of $$ still left to make with that generation of HW..

I would say there is a good chance that PS3 will provide the same results over time, including to help make BluRay the replacement optical disc format for DVD.. ;)

b2b

Ok, I believe my tone was too agressive in my earlier posts. I apologize for that. I'd much rather have a meaningful debate of the market dynamics.

We're looking at the same data in different ways. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you're looking at the ultimate installed base potential of PS3 based on the installed base of PS1 and PS2.

What I'm looking at is launch timing of each generation of consoles and at what point one console comes to dominate the pack and becomes the leader for that generation. Based on my reading of the historical data, the console that gets to an installed base of 10 million first will secure that leadership position. That's my point of view, and why I contend that the PS3 will not lead this generation. For North America it will be the Xbox360.

By the way - in the HD News thread, we've just found out that Disney has released Flightplan as a VC1 encode! And they say Casanova is next in VC1....

And BDboys said it wasn't true....

Wow, that is really great to hear.

By the way - in the HD News thread, we've just found out that Disney has released Flightplan as a VC1 encode! And they say Casanova is next in VC1....

And BDboys said it wasn't true....

This is bad for BD/good for HD-DVD because...?? :rolleyes:

What I'm looking at is launch timing of each generation of consoles and at what point one console comes to dominate the pack and becomes the leader for that generation. Based on my reading of the historical data, the console that gets to an installed base of 10 million first will secure that leadership position. That's my point of view, and why I contend that the PS3 will not lead this generation. For North America it will be the Xbox360.
That is a correlation which creates the illusion of cause and effect. I am not syaing the data is wrong. Just that the inference drawn is unwarranted. Any correlation can only be tentatively accepted as a rule if supported by logic and this one is not. I dont see any logic that makes 10M the magic threshold, especially across decades of consoles as populations get richer and more into gaming.

A handful of console wars is not enough to derive a hard causal relationship between sales and leadership. (I don't think one exists actually). It's just that we are "fooled by randomness" to quote Taleb.

This is bad for BD/good for HD-DVD because...?? :rolleyes:
Actually, good for BD - at least Disney is now using VC1. Only a shame that Mpeg2 is still being used by Sony, etc.

However, remember the rumour that was going around a month or two ago that Disney was going to convert to VC1 and that they may possibly start HD DVD releases? Some folks said "no way, Dude!" yet here we are - Disney with VC1 releases.

They are certainly better positioned to release to HD DVD now, so that's good news for HD DVD also, IMO.

However, remember the rumour that I spent dozens of posts spreading a month or two ago...

Fixed. :D

Actually, good for BD - at least Disney is now using VC1. Only a shame that Mpeg2 is still being used by Sony, etc.

However, remember the rumour that was going around a month or two ago that Disney was going to convert to VC1 and that they may possibly start HD DVD releases? Some folks said "no way, Dude!" yet here we are - Disney with VC1 releases.

They are certainly better positioned to release to HD DVD now, so that's good news for HD DVD also, IMO.

We were saying that Disney using VC-1 on BD, does not = Disney planning on releasing on HD DVD.....

People are carrying on like HD-DVD titles will always look better than Blu-Ray titles, based on releases in the first few months of the launch of both formats.

Yes they've passed judgement and bet with their dollars and now their advocacy.

So, your statement is that "passing judgement" in the first year shouldn't be done. And by "betting with their dollars", that means buying a player.

So... Are you suggesting that nobody buy a player today?

Is there any possibility that somebody can form an opinion of what satisfies their desire for HD thus far at a price point they can swallow and start enjoying HD discs now?

Do you own either format, BTW?

Ok, I believe my tone was too agressive in my earlier posts. I apologize for that. I'd much rather have a meaningful debate of the market dynamics.

We're looking at the same data in different ways. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you're looking at the ultimate installed base potential of PS3 based on the installed base of PS1 and PS2.

What I'm looking at is launch timing of each generation of consoles and at what point one console comes to dominate the pack and becomes the leader for that generation. Based on my reading of the historical data, the console that gets to an installed base of 10 million first will secure that leadership position. That's my point of view, and why I contend that the PS3 will not lead this generation. For North America it will be the Xbox360.

there is an art and sort of black magic in analyzing data and seeing trends, etc.

your interpretation of the data seems plausible...we'll know in a year or so.

why HDi? I already gave the MC example

My bone of contention is the the issue of interactivty profiles.

MC is a function of the yet-to-be-ratfied AACS, which both formats have adopted. I don't harp on the BDA for puposoefully not disclosing MC details, because they can't. I harp on them for not disclusing profile limitations, because they could.

So, in line with your point: can you give me an example of where the interactivity subsystem of HD DVD has a known feature that future titles will employ that is not present in the HDi susbsystem on players today?

No you can buy players and discs.

But trying to judge the relative merits of formats now is like judging the merit of DVD in the first 6 months, when there were no DVD9 releases and certain compatibility problems with certain players.

Now that wouldn't have been a valid judgement, would it?

I have a PS3 but my opinions on the matter have nothing to do with what I or anyone else owns or don't own.

Ok, I believe my tone was too agressive in my earlier posts. I apologize for that. I'd much rather have a meaningful debate of the market dynamics.

We're looking at the same data in different ways. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you're looking at the ultimate installed base potential of PS3 based on the installed base of PS1 and PS2.

What I'm looking at is launch timing of each generation of consoles and at what point one console comes to dominate the pack and becomes the leader for that generation. Based on my reading of the historical data, the console that gets to an installed base of 10 million first will secure that leadership position. That's my point of view, and why I contend that the PS3 will not lead this generation. For North America it will be the Xbox360.

I'm not sure a "rule" based on that presumption is valid. If it were a fixed consumption market maybe you could draw a conclusion like that, but from all evidence the gaming market is still growing. The greatest strength that the PS line has is its franchise, one that PS3 continues even while the PS2 is still beating the Xb360 in unit volume.

I'm not going to try to predict any hard outcomes because there are lots of things that could alter the equation beyond the current circumstances. MS could choose to add a model with a built-in HD-DVD drive & HDMI or both Sony and MS could alter the pricing to accelerate sales rates.

I will predict this though. I think Hollywood will start marketing to the "installed" base of BD players in the PS3. To pass on that many known potential customers would be foolish on a grand scale... :)

Who knows.. ;)

b2b

I know wco81 used the term first, but I believe merits of both formats are inherent. What you are forming an opinion about is the execution of the companies on both sides. I guess even the ardent of the Blu-ray supporters would agree that HD-DVD had a better execution so far (and I would personally agree that it is ahead right now, overall, because of interactivity since quality has come to a tie more or less).

However, I wouldn't form an opinion on the merits of a format based on this -- they are inherent. There may be a time lag, but inherent merits won't change. There is a long way to go as far as execution is concerned. Only thing missing on Blu-ray is PiP, IMHO, which gives a slight lead to HD-DVD at the moment. It is the inherent merits of Blu-ray as a format that people like me support Blu-ray. I believe the market will force all those involved to get their act together sooner or later. This is why I am patient. Besides, it is not that I am not getting good movies to watch at all.

But, I see what are trying to say. Everyone has a right to form an opinion.

[By the way, I think forming an opinion and passing the judgment are almost the same except for semantics. But I haven't checked the dictionary. Boy I do have a lot of free time]

"I opine that there's eveidence thus far that the defendant likely did it."

-or-

"Guilty."


Nonetheless.... rather then getting too far disctracted regarding semantics, the crux of what I'm trying to do is express my displeasure about some issue regarding the format. I don't like what the BD format and it's backers have done with profiles (amongst other things), and I think that's good reason to make an issue of it. Consumer reaction should be a barometer that vendors use to gauge the acceptance of what they are trying to do to make a profit (which, incidentally, is their only motive).

What I don't understand are the stances taken (by the likes of wco81, Richard Paul, etc...) that implies that we should simply be quiet when vendor puts we, the consumer, at a disadvantage in order to further their agenda to increase profits.

My point : I am not arguing that BR is inherantly bad. I am arguing that the BDA should change their execution to less alienate their consumer base. I happen to think that making a stink about some things is a way to do that. I have no allegiances here..., I've made a similar point regarding Toshiba and 24p... I think their execution in that area is poor, and I'd like to see change.

No you can buy players and discs.

But trying to judge the relative merits of formats now is like judging the merit of DVD in the first 6 months, when there were no DVD9 releases and certain compatibility problems with certain players.

Now that wouldn't have been a valid judgement, would it?

I have a PS3 but my opinions on the matter have nothing to do with what I or anyone else owns or don't own.

Well then what did you mean by :

Yes they've passed judgement and bet with their dollars and now their advocacy.

Have you passed a judgment with your purchase or not?

Look, I'm not trying to get in a word battle. My point: Yes, we are early in the game. If the execution continues as it is, it might not improve rapidly, or may turn in a direction we don't like. Just because the ultimatre outcome of some of these things may not be known for several years is in no way reason for us to not to try to influence it now to steer the things the way we might want.

If you want to call that "judgement", then be my guest. The reality is that significant negative reaction can be a powerful force for change. You think that DiVX didn't go away ldue argely to negative consumer sentiment? You think that firmware fixes for the Toshiba player issues, or fast promises for scaling fixeson the PS3 aren't due to people realizing they didn't get what they believed they would and causing a bit of commotion?

C'mon... these are corporations. They aren't going to expend a dime unless they believe they have to. Let's convince them they do.

I'm not going to try to predict any hard outcomes because there are lots of things that could alter the equation beyond the current circumstances. MS could choose to add a model with a built-in HD-DVD drive & HDMI or both Sony and MS could alter the pricing to accelerate sales rates.

Sony simply can not cut prices in 2007 or the PS3 can not be profitable.

Sony is losing between $240 & $300 in the US and $330 & 400 in Japan. The average console owner purchases 8 new games over the consoles lifetime. Now some hardcore gamers may buy 10 or 20 but many will buy even less. Now @ 8 sales per console and $20 royalty per sales Sony can recoup maybe $160 per unit. Let's be generous and say $200 in revenue per unit compared to $240 - $400 loss per system.

The consoles sold in 2006 & 2007 are dead money. They will never recoup their investment. The goal however is to expand the base (promote development of blockbuster games) and generate economies of scale. Add the nearly $100 million in development costs for PS3 & Cell in general and you can start to see the massive margins Sony needs to pull off a profit. Figure if in 2006 and early 2007 Sony sells 8 million units with an average loss of $300, that is another $240 million in losses. Now say in late 2007 they cut their costs brining avg loss per system down $150. Will Sony cut prices?

The simple answer is they can not. They are now sunk $340 million. Figure $200 revenue from games & addons per system (over the systems lifetime) and they can potentially make back about $160 million. That still leave $180 or so million that need to be paid by future systems.

The point is if the agressively cut prices they will end up quickly in a situation where the upfront losses can never be made up by software sales. Sony needs to get the losses on avg system down to less than $160. Every price cut basicly works against them.

I am sure Microsoft is aware of this and will price aggressively in 2007.