I am of the opinion that (prepare your jokes) the PS3 will outsell the PS2 over its lifetime, in terms of respective sales in the Developed World.

So, I am polling to see what your prediction is about PS3 Worldwide Sales for the relatively near time-horizon of 2010.


P.S. Hope the same group of posters is around on AVS then and AVS itself still exists, of course.

P.P.S Sorry about the huge font above on Worldwide, but ppl seem to be voting for NA market.

Here's food for thought:


IDG predicts 23.9M 360s and 23.5M PS3s in NA by end of 2010. The Wii is predicted to gamely soldier on at 13.6M.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4047&Itemid=2


--

Here's food for thought:IDG predicts 23.9M 360s and 23.5M PS3s by end of 2010.

Well if that is true then that is horrible news for Sony.
4 years after the launch of the PS2 sales # were about 72 million PS2 and 16 million Xbox. That gave Sony a market share of 82%. If those # are right then in 2010 Sony will have less than a 50% market share, about 1/3 as many consoles, and a dismal 20 million in sales Both the original Xbox and Gamecube sold 20+ million and they are hardly considered run away successes. Combined with the huge R&D costs and currently losses per console (up to $400 per unit) Sony needs to post some massive numbers to make the PS3 profitable.

Likely around 2010 Microsoft will be releasing the next console which will be far more powerful and capable of True HD gaming. Doesn't look so good for Sony.

Well remember the ps2 launched against the dreamcast . Sega at the time was bankrupt and actually canceled the dreamcast before the ps2 launched.

if sega could have kept going the market would have been a much diffrent place as the dreamcast could have been sold at 100$ vs the 300$ of the ps2 and could have prevented sony from gaining the momentum with both gamers and developers that they did . Giving the cube and xbox a better chance.


This time its ms that launched first and has momentum . You can see this buy the amount of games coming out for the system . 2007 when the ps3 is easily avalible it will go up against a 360 most likely price dropped with halo 3 , mass effect , froza 2 , pgr4 , bioshock , too human , crack down and perhaps fable 2 . Not to mention titles from 2005 that will be at 20ish a pop and 2006 titles like GOW , Graw and deadrising that will have seen price drops .

The wii also has a big push behind it . In japan where ms is basicly non existant the wii is outselling the ps3 by leaps and bounds and if it takes off like the ds did then sony will loose alot of key support. What will happen is japanese developers will publish for the wii first and foremost and then the 360 as the 360 will most likely hold the ww lead through 2007/2008 .

Then of course I predict sony will catch up in 2009/2010 but i believe by then we will be hearing of the xbox 3 with a launch possibly in 2010/2011

I predict that in 2010, we will still be arguing about which format is superior.

I predict that in 2010, we will still be arguing about which format is superior.

2010? How about 3010. :D

Agreed though. :(

As much of a Sony critic I am, I guess I bucked the trend, in that I am the only one who voted that Sony will sell 35-50M by 2010. Here's the reason why:

1. Sony is getting its asswhooped right now, and through 2007 due to its high price and lack of must have titles. 2007 will be the same for the most part, but towards the holiday season, the big guns like MGS4 and Killzone-2 will redeem the console. They will have more AAA titles to look forward to from 2007 Fall.

2. Sony will have no choice but to drop the price of the PS3 in Fall 2007, and it will pull in more gamers.

3. Blu-Ray will have more AAA movies releasing by Fall 2007 - and Fox will still be in BR camp (Disney might jump ship before then) and they have had bigger hits lately than Universal.

4. Given the above, PS3 WILL strongly surge in sales due to becoming more affordable to its loyal fans and franchises like Jak and Daxter, Ratchet and Clank, MGS, DMC, Team Ico projects and Gran Turismo will bring the masses back post Fall 2007.

5. Unless Microsoft snatches some of those franchises for multiconsole releases, they will have tough fight on their hands to come up with equivalent franchises on the Xbox360. So, there is only so much market for FPS, TPS and driving games on a console. RPGs have traditionally been bigger on the PlayStation platforms, and 2007-2010 will see a parity in this respect with western RPGs gaining a following to rival the JRPGs.

So, in summation, Sony could still be on target for 35-50M by 2010 - but the key milestones are: price drop in Fall 2007, and DON'T LOSE ANY EXCLUSIVE FRANCHISES TO XBOX360.

As much of a Sony critic I am, I guess I bucked the trend, in that I am the only one who voted that Sony will sell 35-50M by 2010. Here's the reason why:

1. Sony is getting its asswhooped right now, and through 2007 due to its high price and lack of must have titles. 2007 will be the same for the most part, but towards the holiday season, the big guns like MGS4 and Killzone-2 will redeem the console. They will have more AAA titles to look forward to from 2007 Fall.

2. Sony will have no choice but to drop the price of the PS3 in Fall 2007, and it will pull in more gamers.

3. Blu-Ray will have more AAA movies releasing by Fall 2007 - and Fox will still be in BR camp (Disney might jump ship before then) and they have had bigger hits lately than Universal.

4. Given the above, PS3 WILL strongly surge in sales due to becoming more affordable to its loyal fans and franchises like Jak and Daxter, Ratchet and Clank, MGS, DMC, Team Ico projects and Gran Turismo will bring the masses back post Fall 2007.

5. Unless Microsoft snatches some of those franchises for multiconsole releases, they will have tough fight on their hands to come up with equivalent franchises on the Xbox360. So, there is only so much market for FPS, TPS and driving games on a console. RPGs have traditionally been bigger on the PlayStation platforms, and 2007-2010 will see a parity in this respect with western RPGs gaining a following to rival the JRPGs.

So, in summation, Sony could still be on target for 35-50M by 2010 - but the key milestones are: price drop in Fall 2007, and DON'T LOSE ANY EXCLUSIVE FRANCHISES TO XBOX360.


1) the problem is Sony doesnt have alot of exclusive titles. MSG4 will be released on Xbox 360 as well and remember, GTA4 will be released but it will be released first on XBOX 360..

2) Sony announced no matter what, it will not drop the price until 2008.

3) True

4) See number 1 again

5) Halo and Gears of War 2 coming in the fall, MS should have no problem. But like i said, see answer 1 again

1) I don't really see this . The only big title they have for fall 2007 is MGS4 which may be delayed till 2008 . They have dmc4 coming out this juneish and the new and unproven heavenly sword. However ms has the list I posted for 2007 which off the top of my head is lost planet , mass effect , froza 2 , fable 2 , pgr4 and don't forget Halo 3 . 2007 will be the year of the xbox 360 as we will most likely see Halo 3 + its first price drop

2)Only if production improves. If they still have problems supplying enough units (And they will be adding more countrys to support over the year) dropping the price wont do much good. then there is the possiblity that they are loosing upwards of 200$ per unit . Can they really drop the price ? Will the price drop to say 400/500 help when the 360 will most likely be 300/400$ ?

3) I think bluray is a non factor in this . The casual gamer that sony needs to hit to sell so many units wont really care and will be using the ps3 / xbox / wii as a gaming console and to top it off 100% of the biggest movies will be out on dvd . Not many will jump ship for awhile .

4)Well for each of those exclusives ms and nintendo have something to counter . In some cases ms may be on their second version of some of thier exlcusives when those titles come out. Not to mention that may of those may not apear till post 2008 and some other big titles can jump ship. What would happen if square releases the ffs on both ps3 and xbox 360 ? What happens if they move dragon warrior / quest over to the wii ? That will take alot of the wind out of sonys sales

5) that may have been the xbox , but the 360 is a diffrent beast . It already has oblivion and enchanted arms . In japan blue dragon came out . In the next year we will see 3 more jrps come out (trusted bell , lost odessy and something else i'm forgetting) along with mass effect (bio ware makers of kotor) and most likely fable 2 . This is far greater than sony's rpg line up till at least 2008

Dmc4 is using the same engine that dead rising and lost planet are using and thus we might see it make its way to the 360 as capcom is very happy with Dead rising's sales and Lost planet looks to be the best game coming out in january / febuary .

Sony is facing an uphill battle and I think for the consumer its best that nintendo or ms takes the reins for a generation or two. The 360 shows everythign that is currently right with ms . innovation , great performance to price ration , great new ips and solid old ones . The wii shows whats great with nintendo . A solid new control scheme and solid old franchises . however the ps3 shows what happens when your the market leader for 2 generations. Once of which was basicly uncontested. Its over priced , over promised and under devlivered . When the industry balances out it will be a good thing . It was great when sega shook up nintendo , when sony shook up nintendo and sega and it will be great when ms and nintendo shake up sony . Hopefully sony gets the message though and doesn't take as long to fix its problems as nintendo did

1) the problem is Sony doesnt have alot of exclusive titles. MSG4 will be released on Xbox 360 as well and remember, GTA4 will be released but it will be released first on XBOX 360..

2) Sony announced no matter what, it will not drop the price until 2008.

3) True

4) See number 1 again

5) Halo and Gears of War 2 coming in the fall, MS should have no problem. But like i said, see answer 1 again

1. I believe MGS4 is exclusive to PS3 for now, but have heard speculation that MGS4 might go multiconsole, but haven't seen any annoucements so far. If you know of an announcement, please point me to it, as I have missed it. I expect such an announcement would be made at E3, and there was none at E3 '06 - might be at E3 '07 or TGS '07. GTA4 was of course confirmed last year, but I think that franchise has been played out long enough already. It's a non-starter, at best.

2. They might have announced that before launch, but things have changed since launch, and they have been outsold by the Wii this fall. If they don't have a price drop by Fall 2007, they are in trouble.

3. True, too.

4. See me number 1, mate.

5. Halo 3 is coming in Fall 2007, no doubts. Gears of War 2 WILL NOT come out till Spring or Fall 2008. Think about it. Why would Microsoft canibalize Halo-3's sales by releasing another top franchise head to head and compromize the sales of both titles? If I were making the policy decisions at MGS, I would NOT release GoW-2 before Spring '08 at the earliest.

well once again

1) GTA was never big with me . However it still has a big following and the 3 releases are amongst the top 5 franchises on the ps2. Its up there with FF series and some of the others . MS used to get them months later up to a year later. Now its the same day adn the 360 will be much cheaper than the ps3 and will most likely have halo 3 a month after gta 4. Its going to be tough for a casual not to grab the 360 next holiday

2)Like i said . if they are loosing 200$ per unit as some are saying and pricing doesn't drop by large margins how will they drop the price of the unit ? 65nm is coming and when in 2007 it happens i don't know . But it seems that the most expensive parts are bluray and the ram . So when can we see that drop in price ? If the ps3 now costs 800 . If in 2007 its able to dorp to 700. they will still be loosing 100/200$ depending on the model and droping the price will knock it up even more . Can they really do this ?

Not to mention that even with a price drop if production issues continue they might be in deep doodoo . They were originaly going to ship 4m units this year. The forcast is now 2m with many saying they will hit only 1m ish world wide. This is a far cry from 4m and if trends continue I doubt they will make 4m by march which will still be way under the goal of 6m . How much longer does that last for ? Can they make 10m units and sell 10m units by holiday 2007 ? Ms by all acounts will be at 10m through this holiday and will have shipped another 13-15m by this june. Its not impossible for them to hit 20m by next holiday. Perhaps if the list of games i mentioned in another post hits consumers right they could see 25m units . Sony could actually be even further behind than when they weren't in the market . Every price reduction sony is going to see in 2007 in terms of process nodes ms will also see . So ms should be able to match them price drop for price drop if not more as ms has been mass producing these for a year now.

5) Halo 3 , Gta 4 , Project Gotham racing 4 , Froza 2 , Crackdown , Mass effect , Bioshock , Lost planet , Fable 2 . Not to mention anything else that is announced for the holidays at the trade shows this year . Follow that into 2008 which should see Halo wars and gears of war 2 plus whatever.


Like i said sony has an uphill battle.

Why do they predict so few sales for PS3? The PS2 sold over 35 million units while the xbox and the 360 sold around 7 to 9. Thats a huge drop if they suddenly think that PS3 will lose 12 million or so customers and 360 will gain them all.

well once again

1) GTA was never big with me . However it still has a big following and the 3 releases are amongst the top 5 franchises on the ps2. Its up there with FF series and some of the others . MS used to get them months later up to a year later. Now its the same day adn the 360 will be much cheaper than the ps3 and will most likely have halo 3 a month after gta 4. Its going to be tough for a casual not to grab the 360 next holiday

2)Like i said . if they are loosing 200$ per unit as some are saying and pricing doesn't drop by large margins how will they drop the price of the unit ? 65nm is coming and when in 2007 it happens i don't know . But it seems that the most expensive parts are bluray and the ram . So when can we see that drop in price ? If the ps3 now costs 800 . If in 2007 its able to dorp to 700. they will still be loosing 100/200$ depending on the model and droping the price will knock it up even more . Can they really do this ?

Not to mention that even with a price drop if production issues continue they might be in deep doodoo . They were originaly going to ship 4m units this year. The forcast is now 2m with many saying they will hit only 1m ish world wide. This is a far cry from 4m and if trends continue I doubt they will make 4m by march which will still be way under the goal of 6m . How much longer does that last for ? Can they make 10m units and sell 10m units by holiday 2007 ? Ms by all acounts will be at 10m through this holiday and will have shipped another 13-15m by this june. Its not impossible for them to hit 20m by next holiday. Perhaps if the list of games i mentioned in another post hits consumers right they could see 25m units . Sony could actually be even further behind than when they weren't in the market . Every price reduction sony is going to see in 2007 in terms of process nodes ms will also see . So ms should be able to match them price drop for price drop if not more as ms has been mass producing these for a year now.

5) Halo 3 , Gta 4 , Project Gotham racing 4 , Froza 2 , Crackdown , Mass effect , Bioshock , Lost planet , Fable 2 . Not to mention anything else that is announced for the holidays at the trade shows this year . Follow that into 2008 which should see Halo wars and gears of war 2 plus whatever.


Like i said sony has an uphill battle.

We are not so different [in our points] - you and I. :)

I concur on all your points. And Sony does have an uphill battle. That is why they will drop from 100M installed base in 6 yrs to about 50M 4 years after launch. I am saying even with these challenges, Sony has enough hardcore followers [just not as many as the PS2 had] to reach 35-50M by end of 2010.

Why do they predict so few sales for PS3? The PS2 sold over 35 million units while the xbox and the 360 sold around 7 to 9. Thats a huge drop if they suddenly think that PS3 will lose 12 million or so customers and 360 will gain them all.

I think 12 million going from PS2 to Xbox 360 is very reasonable. That would include me and almost all of my friends. I was all about the PS2 but i'll never look twice at the PS3.

To anyone who voted for 50 million+, Sony will have a hard time making that many nevermind selling that many. Remember this is only 3 years from now.

No way they will sell more than 10 million a year.

For Sony's sake they better sell a lot by 2010. Microsoft will be releasing X-box 3( or 720 or whatever name they come with) in 2010, while the next PS is not due until 2013. If this battle does not harm Sony the NEXT console war will bury them.

hxxp: xxx.npd.xxx press releases press_061113.html (Can't link it cause I'm under 5 posts >.>; Sorry)
What Gamers Want
According to the report, males and those under age 35 are the most passionate about the overall features of the next generation systems but Heavy Gamers, those who spend the most time and money on video games, are more likely than all other segments to emphasize the importance of these systems having appealing game titles, backward compatibility, wireless controllers, Wi-Fi capability, and the ability to play online.

The only thing that Sony really has going for it is the PS2 catalog. Online play with the unified friend list and the loss of exclusive titles will continue to pound away at the hard core gamers. Then the release of Halo 3 and Gears of War exclusive to the 360 not to mention the lower entry price and Microsoft's ability to lower the price at any time will keep pressure on the PS3.

We are not so different [in our points] - you and I. :)

I concur on all your points. And Sony does have an uphill battle. That is why they will drop from 100M installed base in 6 yrs to about 50M 4 years after launch. I am saying even with these challenges, Sony has enough hardcore followers [just not as many as the PS2 had] to reach 35-50M by end of 2010.


Thats just the thing. I don't believe they have 35-50m hardcore followers. I think there are around 15m or so hardcore sony fans that wont switch (or completely switch) . Far cry from 35-50m . The majority of gamers who bought the ps2 were from one of two camps . a) they bought it cause it was the cool thing to have . b) there was a few games that were must plays in pop culture (ff , gta and what not)

however a) is now the wii and xbox live and b) newer titles will become the cool thing to have. Look at gears of war . Its already past 2m units sold and the fan base is excited about a second one already.

Is this poll for NA alone?

The IDG article is talking of NA alone, IIRC.

If it's for worldwide (which is what I thought when I voted), I don't see any trouble getting >50mil -- in NA alone, I'd say 20-30m sounds about right. A lot can happen in 4 years though -- it could be 15 million or it could be 35million. 2008/2009 are really the important years.

The PS3 is about 5 times more powerful than the XBox 360. Someone will figure out how to use it.

I don't see the XBox 360 going anywhere. Look at the recent sales. The PS2 is still selling more than the 360. The natural growth path for the PS2 customers is the PS3, which is upward compatible and fits what they are doing.

The PS3 is about 5 times more powerful than the XBox 360. Someone will figure out how to use it.
It's hard to make a direct comparsion for "power" - there are big differences in the whole platform engineering, plus how much effort it takes to get use out of the systems. One could just as easily argue that the 360 is 3x as powerful, since it has three times as many units for running scalar code. And the 360 GPU is also much more flexible and advanced.

Certainly, every indication is, given a fixed amount of engineering resources, a Xbox 360 game is able to deliver more than a PS3 game.

Having a straighforward programming model and a good dev environment matter a ton.

The PS2 is still selling more than the 360.

Last week in Japan the 360 actually outsold the PS2.

Can we all agree that the 'five times' and 'scaler code' PR-talk is just that... PR talk?

Also the '360 GPU' being more advanced is something that needs qualification, because are we concerned with the GPU alone, or the entire graphics subsystem?

I don't think we want this thread to turn into a console spec comparison, but if it does, well...

Last week in Japan the 360 actually outsold the PS2.

And the PS3 surpassed 360's one-year install base in one week. I don't think Japan is the example you want to use for 360 sales...

Since i am the owner of both systems, i have to say that Sony seriously dropped the ball here and it might lead to their downfall.

The problem with this is just by looking at the hd dvd -add on sales...its alot but gamers dont give an f about movies... they care about games....but what did sony do, they put all their money on blu ray and thought that this system would turn the tide....now it isnt...with the ridiculous price tag and not so good start games, it doesnt surprise me that the 360 is doing good..... not to mention, more and more analysts are saying the 360 is a much better machine....

i know i bought the ps3 and xbox 360, it just sucks when the more powerful machine doesnt look as good as the $100 less machine...

1) the problem is Sony doesnt have alot of exclusive titles. MSG4 will be released on Xbox 360 as well and remember, GTA4 will be released but it will be released first on XBOX 360..

2) Sony announced no matter what, it will not drop the price until 2008.

3) True

4) See number 1 again

5) Halo and Gears of War 2 coming in the fall, MS should have no problem. But like i said, see answer 1 again

I guess konami didn't get the memo yet :o

"Konami: "MGS4 is exclusive to PlayStation 3"Monday 18-Dec-2006 (http://computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=152210&skip=yes)

I guess konami didn't get the memo yet :o

"Konami: "MGS4 is exclusive to PlayStation 3"Monday 18-Dec-2006 (http://computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=152210&skip=yes)


yep found that out too... oh well... still more and more exclusive titles are arriving on the 360 as well...

i know i bought the ps3 and xbox 360, it just sucks when the more powerful machine doesnt look as good as the $100 less machine...

Give it a year. The Cell is outright superior in its ability to provide an improved gameplay experience via animation, physics, and sound. As experience grows, its effect on the graphics themselves will also increase. Heavenly Sword and Motorstorm will be two good 'waypoint' titles to judge progress on the PS3 in the first half-year of its life.

Yup, both the PS3 and 360 are scheduled for a quite a bit of exclusives. I'm wondering though if maybe the Wii will have the most due to it being the most different in terms of gameplay mechanics.

Give it a year. The Cell is outright superior in its ability to provide an improved gameplay experience via animation, physics, and sound. As experience grows, its effect on the graphics themselves will also increase. Heavenly Sword and Motorstorm will be two good 'waypoint' titles to judge progress on the PS3 in the first half-year of its life.

Motorstorm is already out in Japan. I have yet to play any demo's or full games on my 360 or other PS3 demo's that come even close in the racing genre. The physics and gameplay is above and beyond, but most importantly it freaking is awesome to play (based off the demo, the final build is even better according to review sites) :D

OK..... LISTEN...

I own both systems, but Im more into the exclusives that the PS3 will give me. There are countless ones, sure you can look at what is out or coming out for the 360 but lets look at the ones for the PS3 too then? Look at the PS2 catalogue and tell me that a vast majority of those exclusive titles there sold in the millions arent coming for the PS3???

The 360 is selling OK, but nothing crazy. Give the PS3 time - it hasnt even been out for 2 months yet!!! How you can reserve future judgement for a system that isnt out yet!? I didnt do that with the 360, when it came out the HORRIBLE launch games, tons of glitches...... I knew that with time things would get better. Same with the PS3, firmware updates, huge exclusive games..... MGS4, Final Fantasy XIII and Final Fantasy XIII VS, Gran Turismo 5, Jak and Daxter, Ratched and Clank, Motorstorm, Black II (working title), Devil May Cry 4, Lair, Tekken, Warhawk, countless Japanese RPGS, The INdianna jones titles, Fatal Intertia, the list goes on.... and more and more will come out, just like the PS2 had titles FLOWING in like crazy after the 1st 8months to 1 year.

I think that if you look at it from outside everything else then there is almost no way that the PS3 can do worse than the 360. I dont want to bash the 360, its a good machine but I see no way that it can outsell the PS3 this "gen".

Is this poll for NA alone?

The IDG article is talking of NA alone, IIRC.

If it's for worldwide (which is what I thought when I voted), I don't see any trouble getting >50mil -- in NA alone, I'd say 20-30m sounds about right. A lot can happen in 4 years though -- it could be 15 million or it could be 35million. 2008/2009 are really the important years.
You are right, the IDG is for NA alone (edited in original post)

To all voters: The Poll is for Worldwide sales of PS3.

The 360 is a nice machine. But the list of innovation in the box is short. Sure, there is the wireless controller with the connect button, but here's my main comments about the device itself.

1. That giant brick of a power supply. With all the system engineering expertise that MSFT could have bought, you'd think they can figure out how to ship something smaller and lighter. I am building the game room to hide all the wires behind the drywall and if this brick was smaller, I can chuck it in there, but right now it is too big to go in and it destroys the aethetics of the floating thick glass shelving effect I have next to the LCD game 1080P TV (and occasional BD/HD-DVD player) - so much so I am considering retiring the 360 to my museum of dead equipment in my basement.

2. The external HD-DVD drive. Smart money says that in 16 months, we will see an integrated HD-DVD or BD-ROM drive. BlueDragon already ships with 3 DVDs! It is time.

3. Why not ship with WiFi built in?

4. Why not support bluetooth wireless headsets? Bluetooth music for games are very useful, and you get to leverage the underlying technologies for things such as vibrating speaker chairs too.

5. The fan. Copy that PS3 fan. It is very quiet. Do what they did.

6. The web browser. 360 should release a web browser firmware upgrade. If in the middle of a game you wanted to check for walkthroughs or cheats, you should be able to google this - heck add google and youtube search bar to the XBOX panel. ;)

7. While on this subject , add a printer driver module to be able to print the walkthroughs or anything else you need to the LAN-printer.

---

In comparison, the PS3 is late to the game and still has huge supply problems, but considering what it comes with, I would say it has a lot more innovation in that box. The fan design alone is enough to give many PC makers food for research in the coming months. I'll bet it gets copied on PC designs as well.

---

My prediction : the PS3 is more expensive than the PS2. Sure, with all things in electronics, their manufacturing costs will go down, but even at half today's price in tail half of 2008, we are still talking about expensive boxes that are above mainstream affordability. The one saving grace is that it is a good BD movie player, and if BD lives on, that might be enough of an incentive to get people to pay the extra to get the box.

I say installed base by 2008 should be between 30M and 40M if BD wins and 20-25M if HD-DVD wins.

I bet you think the PS3 has no chinks in its black armor...

1. I will give you that the power brick is huge. Better that, than have the PSU inside the console case and risking overheating of the components. Time will tell which design works better. My PS3 is in a shelf with an open front, and after an hour of watching a movie, it heats up like a mofo. Guess I have to give it open air on all sides.

2. External HD-DVD drive enabled the console to ship a year earlier, with none of the associated worries. This makes the console free to launch a Blu-Ray add-on drive if HD-DVD sinks. The PS3 is stuck with BR no matter what. Stop giving me that Shyte about multiple DVDs. People did fine with multiple discs on the PS1 and PS2 and they will do just fine on the 360.

3. Why didn't the PS3 launch with IR remote compatibility, rumble in the controller, and a better online service? Or those four rumored Gigabit Ethernet ports and two HDMI outputs at 120fps? How about that Cell network based video upconversion from standard to hi-def?

4. Bluetooth for music sounds like shyte. What comes out of BT headsets is crap and not music. I am happy there is no BT support for music nonsense. What percentage of the gamers use Buttkicker systems in their gaming setups? You cannot be everything to everyone and still be economical.

5. See point 1.

6. Web browser would be nice. But not terribly necessary. I don't want to use a wirless KB&M in my couch to type in the URLs or navigate a webpage. If I wanted to do that I will just hop on to my laptop, and probably do it quicker. A nicer implementation would be to provide links to game walkthroughs and guides through the guide panel.

7. See above. I have a PC to do all that stuff, and it does it better, faster and easier.

The point in countering your every point was not meant to be argumentative, but rather to show that one man's gold is another's bull.

The PS3 is about 5 times more powerful than the XBox 360. Someone will figure out how to use it.

I don't see the XBox 360 going anywhere. Look at the recent sales. The PS2 is still selling more than the 360. The natural growth path for the PS2 customers is the PS3, which is upward compatible and fits what they are doing.


I don't see where you get this from.

The 360 and ps3 have 512 megs of ram. However the 360 uses only 32mbs for its OS while the ps3 uses 32megs of video ram and 64 megs of system ram for a total of 96 megs of ram. So the 360 has more ram for textures.

It also has much more bandwidth with its on die edram.

The r600/xenos is also as powerfull if not more powerfull (due to the unified shaders and its edram setup ) than the rsx


The cell chip does have a speed advantage but will it amount to anything ?



As for the ps2. It costs 130$ of course there is more of a demand for it than a 300/400 system.

Its the same reason why the psone sold more than the ps2 did in the ps2s first year .

Give it a year. The Cell is outright superior in its ability to provide an improved gameplay experience via animation, physics, and sound. As experience grows, its effect on the graphics themselves will also increase. Heavenly Sword and Motorstorm will be two good 'waypoint' titles to judge progress on the PS3 in the first half-year of its life.

Give it a year ?

You know its funny. The ps3 is such a rushed product with a ton of rushed games / ports it makes the 360's launch look like the greatest thing ever.

The system was already delayed 6months and it still came out with a ton of flaws. Just imagine the state it would have been in 6 months ago .

Not only that but devs have had final cell chips (not final clock speeds ) and g7x gpus (same family as the rsx ) for longer than devs have had the waternoose and xenos from the xbox 360. If devs are still having problems getting equal performance from the ps3 with the same dev time that 360 devs have had then there are problems plain and simple .


Sony fans have the same mantra . "Just Wait" how long is too long to wait .

I mean is it going to be 2010 and the xbox 3 comes out and sony fans are saying just wait the ps3 will blow away the xbox 360 ?

Proof is in the pudding xboxdestroya . Sonycontinues to fumble the ball

The 360 is a nice machine. But the list of innovation in the box is short. Sure, there is the wireless controller with the connect button, but here's my main comments about the device itself.

One innovation many miss that Xbox 360 brought to console systems it the accessible operating system.

The ability to multi-task and pop out to operatoring system in one way or the other w/o actually restarting the system may be taken for granted by PC users but for consoles it's added a new dimension the systems giving them the feel of a more versatile system rather than only a gaming machine.

Kudos should go to MS there for brining some Windows like flavor to gaming consoles and with a nice interface at that.

6. Web browser would be nice.

I agree that 360 should add a web browser, advantage PS3 there. 360 has Media Center integration though, but more people will use the basic feature of web browser I'd say.

On the other hand the PS3 browser implementation is still lacking quite a bit, not very good on multimedia sites yet (which would be nice on a television) and is not exactly easy to use while gaming the way described in earilier post about what would be nice.

There is room for MS to still introduce a web browser on 360 that could be a better web browser than what I'm seeing now on PS3 and the ability to swap to it from within a game would be handy indeed.

JVD I *love* how you just slip-and-slide all of your arguments together into one giant morass of logic. Somehow for you, 'Sony has a weak launch' translates into 'Cell has problems.'

Well, bad logic. Yeah yeah, Sony fans this and that.... 'just wait for it,' 'it's coming,' blah blah.

Give it a year. Motorstorm is already the best physics achievement to date on either console IMO, and for those that choose to program to it - Cell's going to show what its got. Anyone that understands the architectural differences will be able to enumerate on the aspects for which the SPEs are simply better suited than the PPE and XeCPU cores.

I don't like to knock the 360, because I think its a great system; rather I prefer to defend the PS3 against unwarranted slander. But for you to say that the PS3 launched with 'problems'... compared to the 360 launch?... I mean, what in the world.

When Sony is putting out BS statements saying "Only 1% of 360s have failed, which is normal...," *then* we'll talk launch problems. I know people on their fourth 360.

JVD I *love* how you just slip-and-slide all of your arguments together into one giant morass of logic. Somehow for you, 'Sony has a weak launch' translates into 'Cell has problems.'

Well, bad logic. Yeah yeah, Sony fans this and that.... 'just wait for it,' 'it's coming,' blah blah.

Give it a year. Motorstorm is already the best physics achievement to date on either console IMO, and for those that choose to program to it - Cell's going to show what its got. Anyone that understands the architectural differences will be able to enumerate on the aspects for which the SPEs are simply better suited than the PPE and XeCPU cores.

I don't like to knock the 360, because I think its a great system; rather I prefer to defend the PS3 against unwarranted slander. But for you to say that the PS3 launched with 'problems'... compared to the 360 launch?... I mean, what in the world.

When Sony is putting out BS statements saying "Only 1% of 360s have failed, which is normal...," *then* we'll talk launch problems. I know people on their fourth 360.
Yeah you're one to talk about logic Mr. BD-has-more-mpeg2-titles-in-Tier 1-so therefore-mpeg2-must-be-better-than-VC-1.

Yeah you're one to talk about logic Mr. BD-has-more-mpeg2-titles-in-Tier 1-so therefore-mpeg2-must-be-better-than-VC-1.

LOL!

Wow. I've never said MPEG-2 is better than VC-1. *Never.*

Why don't you go and re-read that debate we had Tlreddragon, and actually maybe understand this time what was being said. What I was saying, is that MPEG-2 is capable of as good a picture as VC-1, and I was pointing to the proportion of MPEG-2 titles at the top of the BD PQ rankings as an exemplar of this.

Since you've involved yourself in this by the way, I'll note also that in your attempt to take a potshot at me, you actually didn't have anything to contribute to the conversation. So... since your implication is that my logic must be bogus, would you care to point out any statements I made in my last post with which you disagree?

jvd and xbd, you BOTH know there are better places to makes these arguments than avs. I did enough eye rolls in this thread already.

I will however throw this out there, xbd, if you were to ask Dean or Marco if they had a choice between dev kits if they would take the Sony Alpha or the MSFT Alpha, what do you think they would say?

From the blue corner, at least they had "most" of their system (from a hardware perspective) intact, so it does NOT surprise me that Motorstorm is shaping up to be great, or that HS WILL be great, they've had similar hardware seemingly forever...not to mention they have hella talent at NT (personally I hate the Goddess of War moniker being thrown around, but that probably having more to do with my feelings about DJ)

NavNuc I actually think Dean would have gone for MS' tools early on, and Marco Sony's... not for the dev tools, which aren't all that, but for the hardware itself. Dean comes more from a PC/XBox background though and I think he'd appreciate the compiler support.

I agree there are better places to discuss this, and I hope the thread honestly gets locked. That ~40% of the voters think PS3 might sell under 10 million consoles in four years (and 1 in 5 under 5 million?) is a perfect example though of what rubs me the wrong way here on this forum. It's not people actually voting for what they think around here... it seems to be voting what they want.

JVD I *love* how you just slip-and-slide all of your arguments together into one giant morass of logic. Somehow for you, 'Sony has a weak launch' translates into 'Cell has problems.'

No my logic is fine. Yours is not. If devs have had more time with cell chips and versions of the same hardware family as the rsx (g7x) than they did with the xenos and waternoose and yet titles run like crap (cod2) or are pushed back further (sonic , rainbow six ) or canceled all together (nba live ) then there are problems with the ps3 and the cell is a major diffrence between the ps3 and xbox 360.

Perhaps it isn't the cell fault . But then what ? The rsx ? Bloated os ? Something is at fault. After all they did have another 6 months to work on launch titles .

Give it a year. Motorstorm is already the best physics achievement to date on either console IMO, and for those that choose to program to it - Cell's going to show what its got. Anyone that understands the architectural differences will be able to enumerate on the aspects for which the SPEs are simply better suited than the PPE and XeCPU cores.
I hope the graphics on the downloadable demo aren't what your using as the best physics achievement to date .

Sorry but the graphics are sub par compared to pgr3

I know enough about the ppe and spes and I know thier short comings and the work it will take to get performance from them. I also know other parts of the system are going to be bottle necks where the 360 skates around those very bottle necks

I don't like to knock the 360, because I think its a great system; rather I prefer to defend the PS3 against unwarranted slander. But for you to say that the PS3 launched with 'problems'... compared to the 360 launch?... I mean, what in the world.

Lets see sony already has the poor cooling that the 360 launch had. It already has a small amount of defects . Its already missing its promised launch amounts by half if not more . Its controllers suddenly stop working , it has no 720p mode for games , its online service is buggy and slow , some of its games don't make use of its unified buddy list (prob the best and only worth while launch game resistance) and a huge amount (more than the 360 ) of games were pushed back off launch.

I don't see how you can claim this is a good launch or how its not worse than the xbox 360 which only had unit failure problems .


The ps3 has by far the most pathatic launch i've yet to seen . Worse so than the ps2 imo as at least that had working controllers

NavNuc I actually think Dean would have gone for MS' tools early on, and Marco Sony's... not for the dev tools, which aren't all that, but for the hardware itself. Dean comes more from a PC/XBox background though and I think he'd appreciate the compiler support.

I agree there are better places to discuss this, and I hope the thread honestly gets locked. That ~40% of the voters think PS3 might sell under 10 million consoles in four years is a perfect example though of what rubs me the wrong way here on this forum. It's not people actually voting for what they think around here... it seems to be voting what they want.

I'm not talking from the software side though, I meant stricly from the hardware side. I think you know where I stand on Sony software tools vs MS software tools ;)

If it makes you feel better I don't know how anyone could not think the PS3 will not hit >50mil in its life time, but keep in mind bro its NOT 4 years its 3, and UK won't even have an entire year.

If it makes you feel better I don't know how anyone could not think the PS3 will not hit >50mil in its life time, but keep in mind bro its NOT 4 years its 3, and UK won't even have an entire year.

Ok well if you meant hardware, who knows - probably the same split between the two at alpha stage. I know for a fact which one Marco would have gone with; Dean we'd just straight have to ask.

From now until the end of 2010... that's four years. ;)

(2007, 2008, 2009, 2010)

@JVD, whatever. Your physics example didn't even make sense because you started talking about graphics. But for some reason, I guess those sorts of topic transitions all make sense to you. Somehow, in your world, PS3 has sub-par physics because PGR3 has better graphics. I mean I don't know. I won't address the other points, because a) I need to step out, and b) I'm certain the rest of the forum hates reading these exchanges.

NavNuc I actually think Dean would have gone for MS' tools early on, and Marco Sony's... not for the dev tools, which aren't all that, but for the hardware itself. Dean comes more from a PC/XBox background though and I think he'd appreciate the compiler support.

I agree there are better places to discuss this, and I hope the thread honestly gets locked. That ~40% of the voters think PS3 might sell under 10 million consoles in four years (and 1 in 5 under 5 million?) is a perfect example though of what rubs me the wrong way here on this forum. It's not people actually voting for what they think around here... it seems to be voting what they want.


Wow, so I just went and looked at the poll numbers, I must say I concur with your assessment 22 people believe it will do <5mil , you would have to be a raving lunatic to believe it could fail that badly, even if you thought the poll was the US only...that is nonsense!
With that, once again...you take it to personal, where is the calm, cool, collected xbd :D

I hope the graphics on the downloadable demo aren't what your using as the best physics achievement to date .

Sorry but the graphics are sub par compared to pgr3

Probably not, graphics are graphics and physics are physics ;)

As for Motorstorms graphics being sub par to Motorstorm, well I have PGR3 and have the demo of Motorstorm. I highly disagree on my display, IMO PGR3 looks so dated compared to Motorstorm. Motorstorm has raised the bar in a major way. To each their own of course. PGR3 is still a fun game in its own right.

Well NavNuc this is north america .

25-30m is my guess . IF they were able to sell 50m + in NA alone then ms and nintendo would have made negative progress

As for the hardware. The alpha kits for the xbox 360 were 2 g5 dual cores i think and a x800 radeon ( sm 2.0 )

The diffrences between these and the final xbox 360 hardware are vast . No edram , no sm3.0 no unified shaders , no fp10 and so on .


The alpha ps3 kits on the other hand had cell chips clocked at 2.4 ghz i believe and geforce 6800s in sli mode which are what the g7x family and thus the rsx is based on

Probably not, graphics are graphics and physics are physics ;)

As for Motorstorms graphics being sub par to Motorstorm, well I have PGR3 and have the demo of Motorstorm. I highly disagree on my display, IMO PGR3 looks so dated compared to Motorstorm. Motorstorm has raised the bar in a major way. To each their own of course. PGR3 is still a fun game in its own right.


perhaps . PGR3 is in a huge city with highly detailed buildings and settings. The board i played of motorstorm was in a valley in nevada or something which was just a brown canyon with some mountians and a static backround back drop which is most likely just one large texture ala mega texture .

Very unimpressive . THough things like the car crashes look cool on the whole its no jump foward .

Wow, so I just went and looked at the poll numbers, I must say I concur with your assessment 22 people believe it will do <5mil , you would have to be a raving lunatic to believe it could fail that badly, even if you thought the poll was the US only...that is nonsense!
With that, once again...you take it to personal, where is the calm, cool, collected xbd :D

Hopefully I'll find him at dinner. :D

NavNuc... I told you this place was doing things to me... :(

I'll PM you later btw - maybe there's some more productive subjects we can discuss on the side.

..and I hope the thread honestly gets locked. That ~40% of the voters think PS3 might sell under 10 million consoles in four years (and 1 in 5 under 5 million?) is a perfect example though of what rubs me the wrong way here on this forum. It's not people actually voting for what they think around here... it seems to be voting what they want.
I agree completely about how this part of AVS has become overwhelmingly not about the Science of AV, but agenda-pushing (not very subtly either, I might add).

I mean, 1-10M PS3s Worldwide in 4 years is hilarious. No adult with any business sense could possibly actually think that. "Believe" yes, "wish for passionately", sure but think? No way

I gave that option just to see whether any one would choose it. I honestly didnt think that it would be the most popular. Wisdom of Crowds, my third, size 56 left foot :D

My only regret is that I did not make it public. I could have pinpointed the irrationally anti-sony brigade right there.. sigh.

Mods, if you are reading this, Please, please change the POLL to public. thanks


P.S. Wonder if any of the "1-10M" voters are stockbrokers. Think how much fun it would be to buy options for Sony stock from them. It would be a friggin steal :)

Well NavNuc this is north america .

25-30m is my guess . IF they were able to sell 50m + in NA alone then ms and nintendo would have made negative progress
The poll is for Worldwide sales.. the quoted stats are for NA, just as baseline reference. My bad on the confusion.

Well NavNuc this is north america .

25-30m is my guess . IF they were able to sell 50m + in NA alone then ms and nintendo would have made negative progress

As for the hardware. The alpha kits for the xbox 360 were 2 g5 dual cores i think and a x800 radeon ( sm 2.0 )

The diffrences between these and the final xbox 360 hardware are vast . No edram , no sm3.0 no unified shaders , no fp10 and so on .


The alpha ps3 kits on the other hand had cell chips clocked at 2.4 ghz i believe and geforce 6800s in sli mode which are what the g7x family and thus the rsx is based on

I know, and I know that both you and xbd know, hence my request that both you and xbd keep it on the other fora, or at least in the gaming section...btw the OPoster says that this is a worldwide vote

That ~40% of the voters think PS3 might sell under 10 million consoles in four years (and 1 in 5 under 5 million?) is a perfect example though of what rubs me the wrong way here on this forum. It's not people actually voting for what they think around here... it seems to be voting what they want.We've seen previous polls where time provided an answer that showed that this place was out of touch with reality, as far as being biased towards things that would help HD DVD. Like when the first advanced codec title would show up on Blu-ray. Here is another example:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=689947

In that one over half the people voted that the first BD50 would show up in 2007 or later. I know that some would have voted 2008 or even further if I had put that in as an option. The reality is that something like 14 BD50 titles will be released this year and I think the run rate is even close to 20% for the last 2 months of the year.

I think some of these show how well some propaganda campaigns work.

--Darin

on the flip side if last x mass you posted a thread about when you think the ps3 would launch. Would you have called those who stated delays as bias ? Those who said fall 2006 or hell spring 2007 wouldn't be off the mark. But i could see how someo f you would shout at the roof tops that everyon doesn't know how to vote and are bias

LOL!

Wow. I've never said MPEG-2 is better than VC-1. *Never.*

Why don't you go and re-read that debate we had Tlreddragon, and actually maybe understand this time what was being said. What I was saying, is that MPEG-2 is capable of as good a picture as VC-1, and I was pointing to the proportion of MPEG-2 titles at the top of the BD PQ rankings as an exemplar of this.

Since you've involved yourself in this by the way, I'll note also that in your attempt to take a potshot at me, you actually didn't have anything to contribute to the conversation. So... since your implication is that my logic must be bogus, would you care to point out any statements I made in my last post with which you disagree?
LOL!

I *love* how you use *** for emphasis. It's *great*. As for our "debate," even if you were saying that mpeg2 was only as good as VC-1, your logic still doesn't make sense because the proportion of mpeg2 BD's as a whole is far greater than VC-1 thus skewing the analysis of PQ rankings of mpeg2 versus VC-1.

And I wasn't implying anything, I was inferring. You're the one implying that I was making an implication. Look it up.

LOL!

I *love* how you use *** for emphasis. It's *great*. As for our "debate," even if you were saying that mpeg2 was only as good as VC-1, your logic still doesn't make sense because the proportion of mpeg2 BD's as a whole is far greater than VC-1 thus skewing the analysis of PQ rankings of mpeg2 versus VC-1.

It does make sense. Here watch.

If an MPEG-2 title is considered to be on par with the best VC-1 title on a given format, then on that format, MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 in terms of PQ.

Proportion doesn't matter; 5:1, 100:1 - the logic holds the same.

Does that make sense to you?

It does make sense. Here watch.

If an MPEG-2 title is considered to be on par with the best VC-1 title on a given format, then on that format, MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 in terms of PQ.

Proportion doesn't matter; 5:1, 100:1 - the logic holds the same.

Does that make sense to you?

Did you include that "disclaimer" - "then on that format, MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 in terms of PQ" in your previous posts or did it just dawn on you?

Did you include that "disclaimer" - "then on that format, MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 in terms of PQ" in your previous posts or did it just dawn on you?

It was in a thread about Blu-ray; was a disclaimer needed Raaj? Even then, I'm sure I enumerated the point.

It does make sense. Here watch.

If an MPEG-2 title is considered to be on par with the best VC-1 title on a given format, then on that format, MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 in terms of PQ.

Proportion doesn't matter; 5:1, 100:1 - the logic holds the same.

Does that make sense to you?


Doesn't make any sense actually . Not if there is a format with better VC-1 titles. All your stating is that companys behind said format are a bunch of smucks and are allowing piss poor transfers onto thier medium .

If we already see a Similar format that actually has less room but better VC-1 titles than the other formats mpeg 2 and vc-1 titles we know there is something wrong some where else .

Mpeg2 is what over 10 years old now ? I have no doubt that while mpeg 2 has reached its codec maturity vc1 has along way to go and titles continue to improve upon thier self. Check out Serenity US vs UK releases too see how even in a few months vc-1 has improved .

i was going to vote 600mil units but that option is not available, so i voted >30mil instead

It does make sense. Here watch.

If an MPEG-2 title is considered to be on par with the best VC-1 title on a given format, then on that format, MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 in terms of PQ.

Proportion doesn't matter; 5:1, 100:1 - the logic holds the same.

Does that make sense to you?
What in the world are you talking about 5:1 100:1?? You were talking about how there are a greater number of mpeg2-encoded titles than VC-1 in the top tier of Blu-ray PQ, not how the same title using different codecs can look the same. Let's say for the sake of argument there are 10 HD-DVD players in the world but only 2 BD players. The fact that HD-DVD titles will be selling better has absolutely nothing to do with the quality it has to do with quantity. Same thing with your obscenely flawed logic. Just because there are more mpeg2-encoded titles in the top tier of PQ says nothing about the codec itself. It's the simple fact that there are more mpeg2 titles than VC-1.

Your logic DOESN'T make sense. Does that make sense to you?

Just because there are more mpeg2-encoded titles in the top tier of PQ says nothing about the codec itself. It's the simple fact that there are more mpeg2 titles than VC-1.

Man, this is some density here for sure.

I'm not talking about volumes of MPEG-2 titles, or numbers in the top tier vs VC-1. I am talking about simply the fact that they are in the top tier - hanging with the VC-1 titles - in an absolute sense.

Maybe a simple question should be asked instead, as I think it will be telling:

Do you, tlreddragon, think that given space and bitrates, MPEG-2 can match VC-1 in PQ?

*All* of this back and forth here... and in our previous 'debate' as well... has been me trying to show that th answer is 'yes.' Now - you've been having a hard time of it, and fighting that assertion tooth and nail based on the 'lower numbr of VC-1 titles' on Blu-ray... but I'm done with that circular game of yours.

So I asked you a question. Whatever else you choose to berate me with in your response, I'd like a yes/no answer from you on at least that one thing.

I'm not talking about volumes of MPEG-2 titles, or numbers in the top tier vs VC-1.
Actually, you did.

Do you, tlreddragon, think that given space and bitrates, MPEG-2 can match VC-1 in PQ?
Yes, but only when "given the space and bitrate." There's your answer but it still has nothing to do with you making any sense in your argument.

Mods, would it be possible to make this poll public, if not retroactively, at least from here on in?

red and xbd, how about PM or the other threads for discussing that issue?

Lets please discuss PS3 sales projections in this thread. Thats the whole reason I started such a targeted, specific thread.

please dont let it get locked down :)

Yes, but only when "given the space and bitrate." There's your answer

...which BD has. Great, I'm glad we agree. See how easy it is when the conversational setups and the quibbling over semantics are left behind?

Lets please discuss PS3 sales projections in this thread. Thats the whole reason I started such a targeted, specific thread.

Well, the fact that *more* people have voted for 'under 5 million' in this poll even since it was called out here as absurd... I think shows just how irradiated the whole thing has become.

...which BD has. Great, I'm glad we agree. See how easy it is when the conversational setups and the quibbling over semantics are left behind?
Did I ever disagree that mpeg2 titles could look as good as VC-1? I said in our original debate that mpeg2 could never be "better" than VC-1, but at the very least could match any VC-1 title in terms of picture quality (which is evident from titles that have been released for both formats). My problem was with your logic, which is NOT so easy to argue when you leave all that out. You must be the king of sidestepping, you'd make a killing as a minesweeper.

You know what? My logic was flawless. But I know you don't agree. So, knowing that, I've just put it all behind me and here we've come to an understanding. On the issue of 'logic,' we'll just agree to disagree. The back-and-forth isn't worth it to either of us I don't think.

Well, the fact that *more* people have voted for 'under 5 million' in this poll even since it was called out here as absurd... I think shows just how irradiated the whole thing has become.
I agree. Such is life :)

I wonder what the average age of a poster is on this fourm?

<15 I'd guess. Who gives a rats a$$ how many PS3 are sold?

You know what? My logic was flawless. But I know you don't agree. So, knowing that, I've just put it all behind me and here we've come to an understanding. On the issue of 'logic,' we'll just agree to disagree. The back-and-forth isn't worth it to either of us I don't think.
No, we don't agree to disagree and you calling your logic flawless is like a laugh and a half. I just find it incredible how people like you just deny something or brush it off when they're wrong.

My personal favorite:
I was pointing to the proportion of MPEG-2 titles at the top of the BD PQ rankings as an exemplar of this.
followed by

Proportion doesn't matter; 5:1, 100:1 - the logic holds the same.

If that's not a contradiction I don't know what is.

My personal favorite:

......

If that's not a contradiction I don't know what is.

I'm going to explain it again for you. It doesn't matter how many MPEG-2 titles are in 'Tier 1,' it just matters that they're there at all relative to VC-1. My original reference to proportions was to illustrate how many MPEG-2 titles were up there; my second reference was illustrating that the amount does't matter, however, to 'prove' the point that MPEG-2 is as capable of a good PQ as is VC-1.

Let me condense them into a single cohesive thought for you:

The fact that so many Tier 1 BD movies are in MPEG-2, and compete toe-to-toe with the VC-1 BD titles, indicates clearly that MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 PQ; however this point would have been proven - if less overwhelmingly - if it were just one or two titles, since it is absolute achievement we are looking for in order to judge the potential of the codec, and not quantity or volume...

...

Let me condense them into a single cohesive thought for you:

The fact that so many Tier 1 BD movies are in MPEG-2, and compete toe-to-toe with the VC-1 BD titles, indicates clearly that MPEG-2 is capable of matching VC-1 PQ - on that format; however this point would have been proven - if less overwhelmingly - if it were just one or two titles, since it is absolute achievement we are looking for in order to judge the potential of the codec, and not quantity or volume...

You forgot the customary "on that format.." disclaimer. ;) I added it in bold to fix your statement for better accuracy and objectivity.

There are some reviewers who still give the edge to VC-1 encodes on HD-DVD - albeit by an ever so slightest margin, and you know these VC-1 encodes have not yet shown up on BD. So, until then, please don't forget to add the disclaimer while making statements regarding the two codecs.

You forgot the customary "on that format.." disclaimer. ;) I added it in bold to fix your statement for better accuracy and objectivity.

Raaj, again, my post deals *specifically* with BD. Thanks for your efforts though. It should be obvious we're talking about BD moreso because space and bitrates are an explicit part of my argument. HD DVD is too space/bitrate constrained to deliver good PQ with that codec.

There are some reviewers who still give the edge to VC-1 encodes on HD-DVD - albeit by an ever so slightest margin, and you know these VC-1 encodes have not yet shown up on BD. So, until then, please don't forget to add the disclaimer while making statements regarding the two codecs.

Uh huh.

Raaj let me just ask you the same question I asked dragon; same deal, yes/no.

Do you, Raaj, think that given space and bitrates, MPEG-2 can match VC-1 in PQ?

^That's the worst possible explanation even for an illogical argument.
My original reference to proportions was to illustrate how many MPEG-2 titles were up there; my second reference was illustrating that the amount does't matter
If it doesn't matter then why did you bring it up in the first place?

I'm not even going to go into your "single cohesive thought" because it's more of the same nonsense that you've been trying to mold into a logical argument. The fact that you edited it means it's not cohesive.

If it doesn't matter then why did you bring it up in the first place?

I'm not even going to go into your "single cohesive thought" because it's more of the same nonsense that you've been trying to mold into a logical argument.

So in other words, you didn't understand what I just wrote, and now it's *my* fault for having brought up the MPEG-2 Tier 1 frequency in the first place... because it threw you off. Is that it?

...because, I don't see how in the world the two positions are mutually exclusive. But you obviously do.

I bet you think the PS3 has no chinks in its black armor...

1. I will give you that the power brick is huge. Better that, than have the PSU inside the console case and risking overheating of the components. Time will tell which design works better. My PS3 is in a shelf with an open front, and after an hour of watching a movie, it heats up like a mofo. Guess I have to give it open air on all sides.

Never said PS3 was perfect. I only said it was much more innovative. Ok, they did copy that PS button that also allows you to quit the game and go the OS to browse the web without getting up. The main problem as you said is correct. It runs very hot, just like my laptops do, and I pity the person who has to have it behind closed glass in their shelves. These heat issues are engineering tasks and like all engineering tasks, they have engineerins solutions that will be solved, there will be slim versions of the PS3, further integrated versions, heck perhaps a PSP3 that can play on the local LCD but perhaps also use WiMax to transmit the video with low latency to a large panel. Who knows how innovation will unfold.


2. External HD-DVD drive enabled the console to ship a year earlier, with none of the associated worries. This makes the console free to launch a Blu-Ray add-on drive if HD-DVD sinks. The PS3 is stuck with BR no matter what. Stop giving me that Shyte about multiple DVDs. People did fine with multiple discs on the PS1 and PS2 and they will do just fine on the 360.


I had a choice of picking up LOTR Battle for MiddleEarth II on PC-cdroms or on x360. The PC was $10 (actually $20 in another store) cheaper, but I picked the X360 because I saw that inherently the one DVD disk was a better deal for me. I played FF7 on 4 disks, so I know it won't stop me if I really want to play the game and I have no choice. But if I have the choice then between 4 disks or 1 disk, I will still pick the 1 disk for a small premium in price, because I perceive the single disk to be a clear advantage. And I don't believe for a second that all those people buying bludragon today on 3 disks would not pay $1 more to get an identical version that fits on one HD-DVD DL disk.


3. Why didn't the PS3 launch with IR remote compatibility, rumble in the controller, and a better online service? Or those four rumored Gigabit Ethernet ports and two HDMI outputs at 120fps? How about that Cell network based video upconversion from standard to hi-def?

Agree with you on the IR, the bluetooth thing could be too advanced for our time. They should have provided an IR port for harmony remotes just for the movie side. They should also provide adapters to use DanceMats.


4. Bluetooth for music sounds like shyte. What comes out of BT headsets is crap and not music. I am happy there is no BT support for music nonsense. What percentage of the gamers use Buttkicker systems in their gaming setups? You cannot be everything to everyone and still be economical.

I'm talking about gaming --- there's background music and sound in games, and there are many times when you really want to do this quietly - you can use some other wireless headphones via the TV/receiver, or you can just use the blutooth ones and not worry about the transmitter. Bluetooth is an old standard, and because it is a standard, like USB, you can leverage the product development by other companies. Take wireless headsets that are built mainly for pocketPCs and mp3-phones to play mp3, with a driver, those things can now be used quite easily without too much effort. That's the sort of thinking that made PCs so successful.


5. See point 1.

I take it you think the fan will fail. Well, I don't know, the PS3 doesn't run that much hotter than my laptop and fans in my laptops generally last many years.

6. Web browser would be nice. But not terribly necessary. I don't want to use a wirless KB&M in my couch to type in the URLs or navigate a webpage. If I wanted to do that I will just hop on to my laptop, and probably do it quicker. A nicer implementation would be to provide links to game walkthroughs and guides through the guide panel.

I agree laptop has better webbrowser, but going to google and to IGN or youtube generally works quite well. I don't want to always run up and find a laptop if it's not beside me. The other day, I had to go to dinner in the middle of a game, I went to canada411.com and searched for a restaurant all from a PS3. It works and is convenient for casual browsing.

7. See above. I have a PC to do all that stuff, and it does it better, faster and easier.

The point in countering your every point was not meant to be argumentative, but rather to show that one man's gold is another's bull.

I generally agree PS3 has lots of warts that it has to fix, but it definitely also has more innovative solutions from industrial design, from mechanical engineering, from included technology, and (this last one is a surprise seeing microsoft could have done more) from included application support.

I have no doubt MSFT will beef up their application and provide some type of web browsing support at some point. This is a very useful feature and many xbox owners must find value to enable this. It's just software, MSFT should find this a walk in the park.

Still... That power brick is god awful huge, if MSFT were to make one that is 1/3 the size, I can chuck it behind the drywall.

Dragon I just re-read our original 'debate,' located here: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9055474&&#post9055474

...and it's just stunning the way you jump all over the place to prove... to prove what exactly?

Apparently you have a *big* problem with me saying MPEG-2 can match VC-1 quality, and everything I say that uses the BD Tier 1 PQ rankings as support is a huge no-no for you. It's simply 'illogical,' and you point to the fact that there are no MPEG-2 titles in the HD DVD Tier 1. Now that's illogical dragon, because I don't think *anyone* is saying MPEG-2 could match VC-1 on HD DVD. But since the entire discussion was and remains about BD, well... I hope you recognize how you are totally out in left field.

Add to that that earlier in this thread you actually agreed that MPEG-2 could match VC-1 in PQ and I'm at an utter loss. What axe is it you have to grind? My logic has made perfect sense. I'm sorry if you can't deal with it. I really am...

So in other words, you didn't understand what I just wrote, and now it's *my* fault for having brought up the MPEG-2 Tier 1 frequency in the first place... because it threw you off. Is that it
No, it is *your* fault because your argument was illogical to begin with and you attempting to rationalize it makes it even more nonsensical.

Apparently you have a *big* problem with me saying MPEG-2 can match VC-1 quality
Incredible. How many times have I said I don't have a problem with mpeg2 or VC-1, just your logic? Apparently you don't know how to read.



You said the fact that there many Tier 1 titles in the Blu-ray PQ rankings that are mpeg2 encoded indicates that it can be AS GOOD as VC-1. I'm not disagreeing with that last part. However, I pointed to the fact that EVERY Tier 1 title in the HD DVD PQ rankings are VC-1 encoded and therefore, using your logic, it must be superior to mpeg2 because there isn't a single mpeg2 title on that list. Obviously that's not true, but according to your theory it must be.

Raaj, again, my post deals *specifically* with BD. Thanks for your efforts though. It should be obvious we're talking about BD moreso because space and bitrates are an explicit part of my argument. HD DVD is too space/bitrate constrained to deliver good PQ with that codec.



Uh huh.

Raaj let me just ask you the same question I asked dragon; same deal, yes/no.

Do you, Raaj, think that given space and bitrates, MPEG-2 can match VC-1 in PQ?

Your original reply in this thread was [and I quote]



Yeah you're one to talk about logic Mr. BD-has-more-mpeg2-titles-in-Tier 1-so therefore-mpeg2-must-be-better-than-VC-1.

LOL!

Wow. I've never said MPEG-2 is better than VC-1. *Never.*

Why don't you go and re-read that debate we had Tlreddragon, and actually maybe understand this time what was being said. What I was saying, is that MPEG-2 is capable of as good a picture as VC-1, and I was pointing to the proportion of MPEG-2 titles at the top of the BD PQ rankings as an exemplar of this.

You were saying that because the number of MPEG-2 titles in BD tier-1 is greater than VC-1, it must be capable of as good a picture as VC-1. Later you changed your statement to "given enough bit rate and storage space, MPEG-2 could provide equal or better PQ as VC-1".

Either your logic was flawed in the first statement, or you simply didn't convey it in the right words. Your second statement is obviously true. Given enough space and bit rate, MPEG-2 could theoretically produce as good a PQ as VC-1. But, MPEG-2 is wasteful of resources and that is where VC-1 comes in handy.

Why splurge on the space when you could include more audio and video extras using VC-1? The biggest reason to not use VC-1 might have to do with Microsoft being its biggest proponent and beneficiary, and that using VC-1 [or AVC for that matter] might negate the biggest excuse used to justify the need for 50GB discs. Also, if they give us all the extras using a VC-1 codec now, what will they have to come up with to force us to double dip?? ;)

You were saying that because the number of MPEG-2 titles in BD tier-1 is greater than VC-1, it must be capable of as good a picture as VC-1. Later you changed your statement to "given enough bit rate and storage space, MPEG-2 could provide equal or better PQ as VC-1".

Right, and neither of those two statements is mutually exclusive; or do you disagree? By the way I don't consider that a 'change' in statement at all - I consider that an entirely new statement that stands alone on its own merits. They both do.

Either your logic was flawed in the first statement, or you simply didn't convey it in the right words.

There was nothing to clarify; MPEG-2 can match VC-1 in terms of PQ is a true statement. The added language of 'given proper space and bitrate' is just necessary for those who don't understand the context to begin with. Seeing as I am dealing with such people, I think I have done a good job of making it explicitly clear what I am refering to.

I have no issue with VC-1; it's great. We're talking about PQ. MPEG-2 can match it, and no one even disagrees. What is all this runaround in this thread about? VC-1 is more efficient - have I implied otherwise? Efficient codecs make a difference; so do formats with larger storage and higher bitrates.

Your second statement is obviously true.

My first statement was true as well, I guess just not as 'obvious.'

Why splurge on the space when you could include more audio and video extras using VC-1? The biggest reason to not use VC-1 might have to do with Microsoft being its biggest proponent and beneficiary, and that using VC-1 [or AVC for that matter] might negate the biggest excuse used to justify the need for 50GB discs. Also, if they give us all the extras using a VC-1 codec now, what will they have to come up with to force us to double dip?? ;)

No I don't think so. I think using MPEG-2 just reduces the encoding costs is all. I'm a very 'the simplest explanation is probably the most accurate' kind of a guy. I don't think there are any big conspiracies behind the scenes. I think it's just, you've got the room and the bitrates, so don't spend the money on the encoding. By the way, I'm reflecting studio thinking, not my own ideal. My own ideal would be AVC on BD50 at high bitrates, lossless audio, and a good bit of extras.

But we're talking about MPEG-2 and PQ.

thanks to Petra for the link: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c47765

Predicted total of 75M PS3s by 2010.

thanks to Petra for the link: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c47765

Predicted total of 75M PS3s by 2010.

Which is absurd.

1) The price is way too high.
2) There are viable competitors.
3) They have a head start.
4) They're getting "exclusive" games that normally go to PlayStation.
5) What's the blue-laser diode situation? Gonna be tight for a while?

Kolgar, let's talk in 2010 =)

The analyst would have gone through the very same points as you enumerated above.. something to consider. So, 75M by end of 2010 comes to 18M per year for the next 4 years.

2010? Probably in the neighborhood of 70M-80M worldwide, probably about 35-40M or so for NA and about the same for the rest of the world. 2007 will ramp up much like the 360 did with the really good titles starting to show up the fall after launch. Just like with the PS2, as well. No price cut until 2008 sometime.

Slimline PS3 with laptop BD drive somewhere around late 2010

PS3 for now is 500 and 600 USD.

Following the 360 as an example, lets assume PS3 prices stay level for 2007. Also, demand may still outstrip supply.

For 2008: lets say hypothetically (pls do not lol or :p in return; you'd be wasting credibility) that prices fall to 400 and 500.

For 2009: 300 and 375

For 2010: 200 and 250


I am guessing the bulk of PS3 sales will happen from 2008 onwards, both due to price and supply issues. Thus,

2006: 1M

2007: ~14M

2008: ~25M

2009: ~20M

2010: ~15M


Sound reasonable? Mature inputs welcomed

For context for the previous post, here's some history of the PS2 sales.

Launched in Japan in march and NA in Oct 2000. Milestones:

40M by Sep 2002 (2.5 years)

50M by Jan 2003 (2.75 years)

70M by Jan 2004 (3.75 years)

100M by Dec 2005 (~5.75 years)

In reaching 100 million units shipped after five years and nine months, the PlayStation 2 beat the original PlayStation to the mark by almost four years.

Due to manufacturing issues, only a few M were sold in 2000 itself but sales took off in 2001 with some good titles and resolution of the issues.

For context for the previous post, here's some history of the PS2 sales.Thanks. My guess is that the Wii is the new Playstation 2 as far as sales will go. But just my guess.

--Darin

Thanks. My guess is that the Wii is the new Playstation 2 as far as sales will go. But just my guess.

--Darin

My Wii is so much fun. Really distances itself from the other consoles.

It also doesn't need to pass the "I gotta ask my wife before buying" test as its way less expensive.

IMO that is the killer hold up with the PS3. I don't see that changing for at least 1.5 more years given how much Sony loses today. Also some killer software will help drive sales. What's HD's figures show more that killer apps like FFVII/VIII/IX can create domination rather than any hardware specific items. I'm sure that Halo has helped sell its fair share of XBOXes (and will for XBOX 360).

Get some software out and the buyers will buy, but if price is an obstacle, it will only retard growth.

Found a cool article on tech review: http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17955&ch=infotech


"The Xbox 360's three 3.2-gigahertz central processing units (CPUs) and its 500-megahertz graphics processing unit (GPU) allow it to render 500 million polygons per frame. (The original Xbox, by contrast, had a single 733-megahertz CPU and a 133-megahertz GPU and could generate only 2.1 million polygons per frame.) The PlayStation 3 has eight 3.2-gigahertz CPUs and a 700-megahertz GPU and can render a billion polygons per frame."


Sounds like this explains the 1080p vs 720p issue since 1080p is slightly over twice the rez of 720p.

Found a cool article on tech review: http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?id=17955&ch=infotech


"The Xbox 360's three 3.2-gigahertz central processing units (CPUs) and its 500-megahertz graphics processing unit (GPU) allow it to render 500 million polygons per frame. (The original Xbox, by contrast, had a single 733-megahertz CPU and a 133-megahertz GPU and could generate only 2.1 million polygons per frame.) The PlayStation 3 has eight 3.2-gigahertz CPUs and a 700-megahertz GPU and can render a billion polygons per frame."


Sounds like this explains the 1080p vs 720p issue since 1080p is slightly over twice the rez of 720p.

Yep, all our PS3 games will be 1080P with every with every advanced rendering technique imagineable thanks to the Cell!

The Cell Solves!

Amazing how people can post endlessly and can't grab a clue along the way.....

Yep, all our PS3 games will be 1080P with every with every advanced rendering technique imagineable thanks to the Cell!

The Cell Solves!

Amazing how people can post endlessly and can't grab a clue along the way.....
Annd ignore it is.

My only other comment is that you should put me on ignore also so that your evidently fragile mood does not get ruffled again.


P.S. Mods, is there a limit to the no. if ignores one may use? Anyone else know? I am going to reach triple digits by end 2007 at this rate.

You know what? My logic was flawless. But I know you don't agree. So, knowing that, I've just put it all behind me and here we've come to an understanding. On the issue of 'logic,' we'll just agree to disagree. The back-and-forth isn't worth it to either of us I don't think.


Yes given the space mpeg 2 can look as good as vc 1 .

However then you use extra space on more expensive discs and loose features .

Using vc 1 and that extra space you can have not only great IQ but also use all that wasted space that mpeg2 sucked up to look as good as vc 1 for extras .

On hd-dvd you can use 1 30gig hd dvd with the movie looking as great as a 50 gig bluray disc and then while most likely still saving money use a second 15 gig for tons of features

Sadly your little mpeg2 vs vc1 rant exists outside of reality and fails to discuss the downside of wasting space

Nexgenwars has 860,227 ps3s sold as of now.