Here is my article on CES and the format war:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/rsmith122906.htm


I am writing a follow-up after the show, and would appreciate any comments or input here.

Thanks to everyone and Happy New Year!

I think it's very much a Pro-BD article. You even claim that things look like a BD win in 2007 for the Format war.

So you disagree with every firm that makes their living judging market trends?

Toshiba pretty much did what they had to do to guarantee there will be no winner.

It's Toshiba's game to screw up right now. They have an excellent understanding of the market.

BDA has already said they will have a $400 player at CES (I saw this on TV, on CNet). So you know that HD-DVD will have to have an answer. I expect the answer in a $349 package, possibly a $299 package from the Chinese.

2007 may well end up being the year of Neutrality.

LG, Disney, Fox, and MGM will all likely go Neutral by years end, or be leaning that way by year's end.

Toshiba has done a good job of securing a piece of the market. I believe Sony having the edge in Studios and CE support will just make their market share grow. However it won't kill Toshiba's share. Currently software sales are still being won by HD-DVD. This is a big deal. The PS3 was GUARANTEED by Sony to just about every Studio Exec I know to have pushed them over the top for the XMAS season. They were supposed to win December. They didn't even win the last week of December. HD-DVD is still strongly outselling BD.

It is cheaper for a company to manufacture HD-DVD devices. Denon and Arcam engineers have told me this. They want to make HD-DVD players mainly for that reason. The fact that HD-DVD won the software sales war of Christmas is a big deal for them. They were GUARANTEED that BD would win.

You don't think Disney is asking how in the world did BD lose December sales? Fox? LG? MGM? Heck even Sony? They had the PS3!!!! It shipped about 800k units in the US!!! Throw in the estimated player sales of 50k. That is 850K units vs what? about 300k in HD-DVD?

Early sales show that the PS3 was not the end all answer that Sony promised it would be. HD-DVD won December sales, and shows no sign currently of giving that up in January.

So the question is, what does that show the Studios?

Disney has a CEO that has been leaning neutrality for awhile. He sees no reason there can't be TWO formats that live side by side for a long, long time. Bob might be the smartest guy in this whole entire thing.

Perhaps there is no reason that two formats can't thrive together. Currently both are doing poorly, but the designated winner is currently in 2nd place.

Cheaper players and additional Studio Support will just cause there to be a DRAW.

I foresee a 2010 where both formats exist.

btw, NEWLINE will be announcing HD-DVD titles at the big HD-DVD announcement. I believe that DreamWorks might be as well. I know that both were getting a lot of good incentives to show up.

Is it supposed to be a critical, objective analysis of the current market and potential effects of CES?

..because it is not. You throw your subjective ideas, guesses, etc. into the mix. I hope that it is supposed to just represent your personal opinion.

btw, NEWLINE will be announcing HD-DVD titles at the big HD-DVD announcement. I believe that DreamWorks might be as well. I know that both were getting a lot of good incentives to show up.
So, just to be clear here. New Line Cinema will be announcing HD optical disc titles, exclusive to HD DVD, at Jan 2007 CES?

Also, can you clarify your comments on the Soros owned Dreamworks library?

Thanks.

So, just to be clear here. New Line Cinema will be announcing HD optical disc titles, exclusive to HD DVD, at Jan 2007 CES?

Also, can you clarify your comments on the Soros owned Dreamworks library?

Thanks.

New line supporting HD DVD and BD is sort of old news and it's been known for a while that they were waiting until 2007 to start releasing. http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/hdformats/highdefreleases.html

New line supporting HD DVD and BD is sort of old news and it's been known for a while that they were waiting until 2007 to start releasing. http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/hdformats/highdefreleases.html
I fully understand that's what they've said previously.

I wanted to make sure I'm not misinterpreting his post. Is he indeed saying New Line is going HD DVD exclusive at CES 2007?

Is it supposed to be a critical, objective analysis of the current market and potential effects of CES?

..because it is not. You throw your subjective ideas, guesses, etc. into the mix. I hope that it is supposed to just represent your personal opinion.

I tried to make clear what were my guesses and opinions. The point of the article is to make a pre-CES guess as to what may happen and what relevance it will have, if any.

We will see what does happen.

He uses 1st person in the article, so obviously he is telling you his opinion. I actually agree with the article (despite having a PS3 and an A2).

Unless HD DVD gets more software and hardware support it will go bye bye.

A year ago at CES, it appeared that Blu-ray was a shoo-in.

Not at .. possibly before. Infact last CES was all about HD DVD - with two important news items. The HD DVD add-on for XBox and the $499 HD-A1. Infact as we have seen that $499 HD-A1 has been one of the most important factor in the war until now ....

And it is not HDTV DVD formats ...

will virtually decide the HDTV DVD format war.

I think it's very much a Pro-BD article. You even claim that things look like a BD win in 2007 for the Format war.

So you disagree with every firm that makes their living judging market trends?

Toshiba pretty much did what they had to do to guarantee there will be no winner.

It's Toshiba's game to screw up right now. They have an excellent understanding of the market.

BDA has already said they will have a $400 player at CES (I saw this on TV, on CNet). So you know that HD-DVD will have to have an answer. I expect the answer in a $349 package, possibly a $299 package from the Chinese.

2007 may well end up being the year of Neutrality.

LG, Disney, Fox, and MGM will all likely go Neutral by years end, or be leaning that way by year's end.

Toshiba has done a good job of securing a piece of the market. I believe Sony having the edge in Studios and CE support will just make their market share grow. However it won't kill Toshiba's share. Currently software sales are still being won by HD-DVD. This is a big deal. The PS3 was GUARANTEED by Sony to just about every Studio Exec I know to have pushed them over the top for the XMAS season. They were supposed to win December. They didn't even win the last week of December. HD-DVD is still strongly outselling BD.

It is cheaper for a company to manufacture HD-DVD devices. Denon and Arcam engineers have told me this. They want to make HD-DVD players mainly for that reason. The fact that HD-DVD won the software sales war of Christmas is a big deal for them. They were GUARANTEED that BD would win.

You don't think Disney is asking how in the world did BD lose December sales? Fox? LG? MGM? Heck even Sony? They had the PS3!!!! It shipped about 800k units in the US!!! Throw in the estimated player sales of 50k. That is 850K units vs what? about 300k in HD-DVD?

Early sales show that the PS3 was not the end all answer that Sony promised it would be. HD-DVD won December sales, and shows no sign currently of giving that up in January.

So the question is, what does that show the Studios?

Disney has a CEO that has been leaning neutrality for awhile. He sees no reason there can't be TWO formats that live side by side for a long, long time. Bob might be the smartest guy in this whole entire thing.

Perhaps there is no reason that two formats can't thrive together. Currently both are doing poorly, but the designated winner is currently in 2nd place.

Cheaper players and additional Studio Support will just cause there to be a DRAW.

I foresee a 2010 where both formats exist.

btw, NEWLINE will be announcing HD-DVD titles at the big HD-DVD announcement. I believe that DreamWorks might be as well. I know that both were getting a lot of good incentives to show up.

A lot of good points here, I won't respond to them all.

1. Yes, I am pro-BD based on the specs. I think I also gave a very fair accounting of Sony's problems and Toshiba's successes in the article. I am very critical of Sony.

2. Certainly, events at this show could be very significant. That was my point. If, as you suggest, Disney goes neutral, that would be important.

3. Cost of manufacture is obviously converging as components become available. Going forward this will not be a factor. In fact, the Toshiba A1 was planned to debut for $999 until Toshiba wisely lowered the price.

4. Companies like Arcam and Denon will not affect the format war, their price points are too high to be of any interest to most consumers. Arcam's current upscaling DVD player (DV-29) is $3000; if they announce an HD DVD player, what would it list for? How many would they sell?

5. Where do you get your information about December disk sales? From what I am hearing, Blu-ray is on a better track than many people thought. There was a prediction that the PS3 would have no real interest as a Blu-ray player, obviously not true. Of course it is an expectation game.


Thanks for your post.

Not at .. possibly before. Infact last CES was all about HD DVD - with two important news items. The HD DVD add-on for XBox and the $499 HD-A1. Infact as we have seen that $499 HD-A1 has been one of the most important factor in the war until now ....

And it is not HDTV DVD formats ...

Last year at CES, HD DVD did better than expected, but the consensus was still that Blu-ray was a shoo-in.

The full importance of Toshiba's decision to subsidize the A1 and drop the price from $999 to $499 was not appreciated until the summer. In part, this was because the PS3 turned out to be a lot later than it had been expected at CES.

Its kind of a silly article-little more than stating "I'm waiting to announce BD ther winner", without any real data.
Weee.
J

Last year at CES, HD DVD did better than expected, but the consensus was still that Blu-ray was a shoo-in.

What consensus ... definitely not in avs or the press I read.

The full importance of Toshiba's decision to subsidize the A1 and drop the price from $999 to $499 was not appreciated until the summer. In part, this was because the PS3 turned out to be a lot later than it had been expected at CES.

May be not by you ... if you go back and read the relevent posts, you will see that many of us recognized the importance.

So we've got a pro-BR article written by someone with admitted pro-BR bias...

*snore*

I really don't get the point of so-called "predictive" articles and columns, other than people hoping that they'll be able to say "Nyah nyah! Told you so!" after the fact.

And it is not HDTV DVD formats ...

Yes.

Its High Definition, but not television. HD optical software would probably be the best way to phrase it, unless software will not be commonly understood as discs. DVD is a loaded term as it can't apply to BD.

While there were clear biases in the article, it is better than most of the filth that people put online in terms of "analysis" of the war.

BD is not doing as well as you make it out in this article. Their software offerings have improved, but we're not at the point where 50GB discs are "common."

I think CES will have way more surprises for HD DVD and those surprises will be positive. I'm curious as to whether the BD surprises will be from a lack of annoucements or something dealing with playing on security fears.

Nice article. IMO if Toshiba doesn't have some more studio and hardware support to announce for HD DVD at CES then their days are numbered.

Here is my article on CES and the format war:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/rsmith122906.htm


I am writing a follow-up after the show, and would appreciate any comments or input here.

Thanks to everyone and Happy New Year!
Your article fails to mention some very significant points that should not be overlooked, such as:

* That the majority of PS3 owners bought the PS3 for games, not movies
* That ALL X360 HD DVD add-on owners are soley for HD DVD movies
* That Toshiba HD DVD players sell out as quickly as they can stock them
* Does not note that Blu-Ray disc sales have always lagged behind HD DVD
* Did not mention the In-Movie-Experience and U-Control that is winning HD DVD fans
* Failed to underscore that though Blu-Ray has been improving, HD DVD has been consistently better and has won High-Def Digest's Best Of 2006 list
* Did not note that although BD50 discs have begun shipping, they have yet to prove to be any better than HD30 since PQ still lags behind or, at best, only matches HD DVD

Despite Blu-Ray's specs and improvements, HD DVD has the momentum behind it that shows no signs whatsoever of slowing down.

Here is my article on CES and the format war:

http://www.tvpredictions.com/rsmith122906.htm


I am writing a follow-up after the show, and would appreciate any comments or input here.

Thanks to everyone and Happy New Year!


good, balanced article.


But why put Sony on the spotlight?? blu-ray is BDA

Nicely written article rlsmith, although I don't agree with it. It really doesn't matter what each sides writes about the other. The other will simply tear it down anyway.:)

You know, we all have our opinions on whats going to happen. So far, I have yet to a single one thats been correct.:) I know mine haven't been. CES will be important, no doubt.

What consensus ... definitely not in avs or the press I read.



May be not by you ... if you go back and read the relevent posts, you will see that many of us recognized the importance.

nataraj,

We could continue to argue about this historical point forever. I agree that Toshiba made some good decisions.

What do you think about the central thesis of the article?

So, just to be clear here. New Line Cinema will be announcing HD optical disc titles, exclusive to HD DVD, at Jan 2007 CES?

Also, can you clarify your comments on the Soros owned Dreamworks library?

Thanks.

Newline is planning on being neutral. However early releases by them will be on HD-DVD only, because PiP is not yet available on BD. That is unless the BDA has somehow got them to wait. I heard about the Newline announcements 2nd hand.

A friend at DCM told me they will be releasing titles on HD-DVD in 2007 and are likely to be part of the announcement on the 7th. I don't know if they are going to be neutral or not. Paramount will be distributing their titles.

A lot of good points here, I won't respond to them all.

1. Yes, I am pro-BD based on the specs. I think I also gave a very fair accounting of Sony's problems and Toshiba's successes in the article. I am very critical of Sony.

2. Certainly, events at this show could be very significant. That was my point. If, as you suggest, Disney goes neutral, that would be important.

3. Cost of manufacture is obviously converging as components become available. Going forward this will not be a factor. In fact, the Toshiba A1 was planned to debut for $999 until Toshiba wisely lowered the price.

4. Companies like Arcam and Denon will not affect the format war, their price points are too high to be of any interest to most consumers. Arcam's current upscaling DVD player (DV-29) is $3000; if they announce an HD DVD player, what would it list for? How many would they sell?

5. Where do you get your information about December disk sales? From what I am hearing, Blu-ray is on a better track than many people thought. There was a prediction that the PS3 would have no real interest as a Blu-ray player, obviously not true. Of course it is an expectation game.


Thanks for your post.

1. I've never been a fan of paper. I always base my decisions on how things affect me in the real world. HD-DVD was no surprise to me.

2. LGF will make their switch at CES, Disney is being lead poorly on this point. I think Bob will step in after CES to force the switch, but I could be wrong. It may still happen at CES.

3. Cost of manufacture has always been less expensive for HD-DVD. For one the A1 was never subsidized as many like to claim. Everyone at Toshiba has told me that was just a vicious rumor. In fact I've been told the A2 could be dropped to $349 MSRP without too much difficulty for them, and yes they'd still be making money. Which means the Chinese could likely really come out with a $299 or less player. I just don't see BD anywhere near that.

4. Yes, the Arcam FMJ line is expensive. It's also their top of the line. They have a DVD player for under $1,000. I'd expect their HD-DVD player to be around $1,200 to $1,500. That was the range they told me if they made one. I'd rather have an Arcam than a Pioneer, and it would definately be up against them. You however missed the point. If it's "far less expensive," for Arcam to make a HD-DVD than BD, then that again states the advantage that HD-DVD has.

5. Nobody with a brain thought the PS3 wouldn't be a factor. In fact every analyst picked BD to win because of the PS3. The BDA was GUARANTEED to win Christmas. They promised people it would happen. Analysts bought the theory. Meanwhile a select few said "wait, we don't know how big an impact it will be, but we agree it will be an impact." What it did was take BD sales out of the gutter. BD sales have grown substantially and it's all thanks to the PS3. However HD-DVD sales picked up with the same exact bit of steam. So HD-DVD software sales are doing EXTREMELY well. They are still outselling BD. Videoscan estimates that December sales will show that HD-DVD outsold BD 1.5:1.

For you to even hint that BD wasn't supposed to catch up that well is a joke. BD was supposed to surpass HD-DVD and leave it in the dust. It just wasn't able to do it. The PS3 numbers weren't enough, yet. That's a big deal. For one Sony and the BDA's expectations for software sales have all been wrong. For another Sony's expectations of surpassing HD-DVD sales by October was wrong. By November was wrong. By December was wrong. By January was wrong. Being wrong FIVE times to Studios is not a good sign. Meanwhile the guys trying to win you over keep on doing what they said they were going to do.

However PS3 sales are supposedly dropping. They aren't flying off shelves anymore. The frenzy has slowed dramatically. I'd say this is Sony's fault. If Sony had say 2M to release on opening day, they'd have sold them all. Yet, they didn't. So what happened was about 200,000 sold. And people saw their friends PS3 and said "you know what it isn't that great...."

This format war is over. It's going to be a tie. Disney sees that, and that is why at somepoint in 2007, Disney will be neutral.

Newline is planning on being neutral. However early releases by them will be on HD-DVD only, because PiP is not yet available on BD. That is unless the BDA has somehow got them to wait. I heard about the Newline announcements 2nd hand.

A friend at DCM told me they will be releasing titles on HD-DVD in 2007 and are likely to be part of the announcement on the 7th. I don't know if they are going to be neutral or not. Paramount will be distributing their titles.

I'm not surprised. New Line likes to go crazy with interactivity and it seems to me they'd go with HD DVD and HDi first since BD-J is still a little behind at the moment.

^
tsd2005,

Thanks for the post.

I am a bit surprised at the amount of credit you are giving Disney for knowing what they are doing. Next to Sony, they seem to have done the poorest job overall in supporting hidef disks.

Up until now, their offerings on BD have been sadly lacking. The best title was "Eight Under", which is nice, but all of us could list all of the titles that would make a difference.

I was quite prepared to buy Cars and Pirates on Blu-ray this Christmas. Disney didn't want to sell them.

Their announcements after the first of the year are more impressive, and in fact suggest a strong commitment to BD in the use of BD50, but still far less than what they could do.

I well remember that Disney launched 2 DVD titles in late 1997, Mary Poppins and something else. They didn't sell, and so Disney decided that DVD was a loser. The MP was filled with mosquito noise, really very poor. Then, after a Divx flirtation, they finally started with DVD in earnest after some analysts pointed out that they had missed the boat by not supporting DVD. Now, the way Disney talks about DVD, you would think they invented it.

If Disney really cared about hidef disks and their future, they would be a) supporting both formats, and b) putting some of their key titles on the line. At least we should have seen Pirates day-and-date for example.

As to your number of 1.5:1, if it is true, I am still not that discouraged. Remember that Blu-ray still has significantly fewer titles in the market. As I pointed out in the article, it is the upcoming scheduled releases that impress me for BD. Of course, if Disney expected something more favorable, then I guess they could be discouraged.

As I stated in the article, I think a key point among the studios may be the "let's get it over with" attitude about the format war. If Disney thinks that supporting HD DVD would just prolong the format war, they will hold off. I think this has been their thought.

Your idea is that the format war is actually over and both will survive. I don't know about that one.

TVPredictions.com recently seems to have a BD bias and I tend to adjust for that as I read it. They may actually be right but my own predictions suggest somewhat differently.

But hey, everybody's got an opinion. ;)

- Tom

All other points aside. Sony has blown their advatage and it will be very tough for them to recover. The studios are certainly rethinking their current stance with BR. They would be poor business men not to. And even with all the misteps, they are not poor business men and will follow the dollar.

The PS3 is not doing as well as expected and I don't believe it ever will. They have upset their base customers with the pricing and thats a possible fatal error for BR. The Wii is a real threat to them and is taking many of their PS3 customers away. Again due to cost.

Sony's credibality is very low and any additional misteps by them will spell disaster for exclusive support for most, if not all, the studios over the coming year.

^
tsd2005,

Thanks for the post.

I am a bit surprised at the amount of credit you are giving Disney for knowing what they are doing. Next to Sony, they seem to have done the poorest job overall in supporting hidef disks.

Up until now, their offerings on BD have been sadly lacking. The best title was "Eight Under", which is nice, but all of us could list all of the titles that would make a difference.

I was quite prepared to buy Cars and Pirates on Blu-ray this Christmas. Disney didn't want to sell them.

Their announcements after the first of the year are more impressive, and in fact suggest a strong commitment to BD in the use of BD50, but still far less than what they could do.

I well remember that Disney launched 2 DVD titles in late 1997, Mary Poppins and something else. They didn't sell, and so Disney decided that DVD was a loser. The MP was filled with mosquito noise, really very poor. Then, after a Divx flirtation, they finally started with DVD in earnest after some analysts pointed out that they had missed the boat by not supporting DVD. Now, the way Disney talks about DVD, you would think they invented it.

If Disney really cared about hidef disks and their future, they would be a) supporting both formats, and b) putting some of their key titles on the line. At least we should have seen Pirates day-and-date for example.

Now, if you had put this kind of insight into the article, that would have made for unique and worthwhile reading! :). But it may have screwed up the conclusion you drew at the end so maybe its omission was for the best...

Now, if you had put this kind of insight into the article, that would have made for unique and worthwhile reading! :). But it may have screwed up the conclusion you drew at the end so maybe its omission was for the best...

Thanks I think. :)

I am not sure that I thought the article was even very controversial in a way.

It is a simple matter to look at the numbers of titles coming out from the supporting studios and also the CE support with players and to see that the Blu-ray strategy, as clunky as it was, may be working at long last.

It's not that bad an article. For someone who admits pro-BR bias, HD DVD was given a number of compliments. The shortcomings that were noted were fair. As far as guessing the winner, I'll agree that there's really no point. If the article is supposed to be about CES 2007, then it doesn't need to be looking forward to the end of 2007. Save that for the CES 2008 article.

The only thing that I strongly disagreed with is:

"The PS3 has been very well received as a Blu-ray player, and it is now clear that game consoles are a large part of the format war."

There's no data to back this up, and is a very debatable topic, but it comes across as a fact rather than opinion.

The only thing that I strongly disagreed with is:

"The PS3 has been very well received as a Blu-ray player, and it is now clear that game consoles are a large part of the format war."

There's no data to back this up, and is a very debatable topic, but it comes across as a fact rather than opinion.I don't know about solid data for the PS3 yet, but I think when the year end numbers come in we will see that add-ons for the 360 outnumber standalone HD DVD players by a wide margin.

--Darin

I don't know about solid data for the PS3 yet, but I think when the year end numbers come in we will see that add-ons for the 360 outnumber standalone HD DVD players by a wide margin.

--Darin

I don't doubt that. I guess my point is that we need those numbers to say anything about it with certainty. The article implies the numbers are already known as fact. You expect that from forum members, but a journalist is held to a higher standard.

I don't know about solid data for the PS3 yet, but I think when the year end numbers come in we will see that add-ons for the 360 outnumber standalone HD DVD players by a wide margin.

--Darin

There was an article in Variety claiming that game consoles were being used as players. I can try to find the reference.

Also, there are several polls on the forum that have shown a signficant interest in the PS3 as a player. Look at:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=768087

for example. The #1 and #2 Blu-ray players shown there are the two models of the PS3, by a wide margin.

I thought it was a good article, Robert. It laid out a nice recap of the last 6 months for the casual reader, and make well-reasoned, logical (rather than empassioned) predictions of what is likely to happen. Its hard in this forum to rise above the fray of emotion and rumor to really look at things objectively. The article does a good job of avoiding what people WANT to happen and what evidence points to probably WILL happen.

If either side reads it as biased, I think its more a case of not hearing what you want to hear.

Of course since I am BD-biased I WOULD say that, wouldn't I.

Nice work.

rismith,

Having a bias is poison in trying to write objectively. I feel your article showed some bias be leaving out some pro-HD DVD points. But worse than that is that it was just flimsy. You are smart enough and insightful enough to get past your bias. There are loads of fanboys on both sides of the format war, but there are only a few that can be coherent and analytical. An insightful analysis, at least to me, is far more interesting that just some opinions. You're doing yourself a disservice by having a bias and the rest of the enthusiast community is deprived of your potentially salient insights.

There was an article in Variety claiming that game consoles were being used as players. I can try to find the reference.

Without a percentage it doesn't mean squat.

The #1 and #2 Blu-ray players shown there are the two models of the PS3, by a wide margin.

If you want to go by AVS polls, more people have bought HD DVD add-on than PS3 for use as HiDef DVD player.

If this format war is anything like a real war or even a sporting competition then your analysis is flawed. Things never stay on their current course (as you had written in your conclusion). Both sides need to change strategy to counter the other side. I don't know who'll win but I for one wouldn't count out HD DVD too quickly.

Pretty good article overall. You say outright that HD DVD has been surprising to date and mroe consumer friendly and even state a possible switch of a major studio releasing on HD DVD, more CES releasing HD DVD standalones or even a possible combo player add to this a greater liklihood of a $299 to $399 MSRP HD DVD player but predict blu-ray to win in 2007??? :confused:
Other than a few more titles to be release in the next month or so, it appears Blu-ray doesn't have any other cards to play in 2007. PS3 has had an impact, but considering players are available on store shelves already, I don't know if it's enough to sustain a blu-ray win. Standalone sales have been very disappointing, wouldn't you agree?
HD DVD hasn't done anything surprising since the Add-on was announced yet media sales appear to still be ahead of blu-ray. If Toshiba and HD DVD do announce another surprise at CES (either another studio, or a $300-400 MSRP player), I think HD DVD will win the war.

There was an article in Variety claiming that game consoles were being used as players. I can try to find the reference...
Knowing your BR bias before reading your article, I consider it fairly enough on facts, but it's your reasoning I don't agree. Based on the facts you presented and your opinion that Toshiba understands customers better than BR companies, it's very hard to understand how you can make a prediction that BR will win in 2007. If the recent history of HD/BD showed us anything, it showed how foolish so many expert predictions (made before 2006) look today :-)

From a business strategy point of view, Toshiba/MS have executed brilliantly, they anticipated and countered every BR move: shocking BR world with $499 price tag and HDDVD addon against PS3, high vs. poor quality titles, timely customer support. When the dust settles (and especially if HD wins), this will be a must read for every business school student.

As to game consoles were being used as players, of course they are, it's a no brainer to me. However, "It is the attach rate, stupid !" (let me clarify here pre-emptively, no 'pig insult' is intended here, it's a variation of Clinton campaign slogan), for that, we need more data to make any firm conclusions.

^
tsd2005,

Thanks for the post.

I am a bit surprised at the amount of credit you are giving Disney for knowing what they are doing. Next to Sony, they seem to have done the poorest job overall in supporting hidef disks.

Up until now, their offerings on BD have been sadly lacking. The best title was "Eight Under", which is nice, but all of us could list all of the titles that would make a difference.

I was quite prepared to buy Cars and Pirates on Blu-ray this Christmas. Disney didn't want to sell them.

Their announcements after the first of the year are more impressive, and in fact suggest a strong commitment to BD in the use of BD50, but still far less than what they could do.

I well remember that Disney launched 2 DVD titles in late 1997, Mary Poppins and something else. They didn't sell, and so Disney decided that DVD was a loser. The MP was filled with mosquito noise, really very poor. Then, after a Divx flirtation, they finally started with DVD in earnest after some analysts pointed out that they had missed the boat by not supporting DVD. Now, the way Disney talks about DVD, you would think they invented it.

If Disney really cared about hidef disks and their future, they would be a) supporting both formats, and b) putting some of their key titles on the line. At least we should have seen Pirates day-and-date for example.

As to your number of 1.5:1, if it is true, I am still not that discouraged. Remember that Blu-ray still has significantly fewer titles in the market. As I pointed out in the article, it is the upcoming scheduled releases that impress me for BD. Of course, if Disney expected something more favorable, then I guess they could be discouraged.

As I stated in the article, I think a key point among the studios may be the "let's get it over with" attitude about the format war. If Disney thinks that supporting HD DVD would just prolong the format war, they will hold off. I think this has been their thought.

Your idea is that the format war is actually over and both will survive. I don't know about that one.

That is just as absurd as Bill Hunt's take, that "just you wait until BD has more players, more PS3s sold, and BETTER TITLES!!!"

HD-DVD is just going to sit there and let it happen?

As for HD-DVD having more titles out... ok, by what 15%? What about BD outnumbering HD-DVD players 3 to 1? Shouldn't that make up for the 15% less titles?

My thoughts on Disney have to do with Bob and his ideas about the formats. It has little to nothing to do with Buena Vista Home Video and how they've treated DVD or BD. It has to do with the guy at the top and his thoughts. He has the right idea, if that right idea can slip thru the cracks and down the totem pole, then we'd all be in a great place.

I think Bob wishes every DVD, BD, or future HD-DVD was treated like their treasure chests and platinum releases.

What amazes me is that the PRO-BD crowd is again chanting "wait," when we were told the same thing Sony was preaching to anyone who would listen: Come November we win! Long live the PS3!" Now that has changed. I don't remember one Pro-BD person on this site who thought that HD-DVD would win December, not one.

Perception is half the battle. I truly believe that MS tested the waters with the Addon, and now that they know that HD-DVD can survive...

I bet that HD-DVD has a lot more up it's sleaves. BDA has shown us their hands. We got the PS3, all the studio support, and all the CE support.

HD-DVD is winning with a lot less. The more they add, the more I'd be worried if I was exclusive to the BDA camp.

That is just as absurd as Bill Hunt's take, that "just you wait until BD has more players, more PS3s sold, and BETTER TITLES!!!"

HD-DVD is just going to sit there and let it happen?

...
As for HD-DVD having more titles out... ok, by what 15%? What about BD outnumbering HD-DVD players 3 to 1? Shouldn't that make up for the 15% less titles?
...
What amazes me is that the PRO-BD crowd is again chanting "wait," when we were told the same thing Sony was preaching to anyone who would listen: Come November we win! Long live the PS3!" Now that has changed. I don't remember one Pro-BD person on this site who thought that HD-DVD would win December, not one.



I don't know the rate at which Blu-ray is gaining but the direction is very clear that Blu-ray is gaining.

As I look at the announced titles for the next several months, it is hard to see Blu-ray not continuing to gain. Just study the list and judge for yourself.

If, as you suggest in one post, MGM, Fox, and Disney (and presumably Sony) all remain exclusive to the end of 2007, the title count will be enormous in Blu-ray's favor.

What will HD DVD do about this?

I don't know the rate at which Blu-ray is gaining but the direction is very clear that Blu-ray is gaining.

As I look at the announced titles for the next several months, it is hard to see Blu-ray not continuing to gain. Just study the list and judge for yourself.

If, as you suggest in one post, MGM, Fox, and Disney (and presumably Sony) all remain exclusive to the end of 2007, the title count will be enormous in Blu-ray's favor.

What will HD DVD do about this?

BR first needs to catch up and then gain. If it takes them 1.5 million devices to HD DVD's 300,000K and are pulling even or even still trailing in software sales, it's scary. A studio simply has to think "what would happen if it was other way around? would HD DVD hit home with a lot more people and would we sell a lot more discs?" The low attach rate of BR is and very well should be alarming to a studio exec.

This is all assuming that the HDDVD camp simply does not try to pull studio or CE support. The corporate policits involved in this war are something we'll likely never learn about. However, they will mold each format greatly.

In one of your posts you made the "too expensive" comment in reference to Denon. You're absolutely right. All the BR players are too expensive for Joe Q and even the HD DVD players. As long as the content fight is going on, the race to the $249 HD player will be the one that could possibly attract the masses. No one I know is willing to pay $399+ for a HD player and these are people with good incomes but what I'd consider the mass consumer. Just because people have the money doesn't mean they wanna spend it on expensive Hi Def players.

Content cost is another factor. For most, they cannot justify $30-40 discs at best buy for a PQ increase they might or might not notice. As for audio, anyone outside of a $2000+ 5.1 system isn't going to get much. So really, we're left with PQ which NEEDS to have the "wow!" factor of HD football or Discovery HD. Grain, while loved on here, is frowned up by the masses. They want a very clear, clean, 3D look. That is their idea of "HD" Good luck convincing them otherwise.

When people come and check out my setup, they all love HD DVD. I really mean that. However when they ask me about it, I simply give them the present day situation which is:

Player cost, media cost and a format war. All 3 combined are the perfect storm to turn back the masses. So really, if these formats stay niche and never take off, both sides deserve it.

How about the porn switching to HD DVD ?
http://adult.dvdempire.com/v2_index2.asp?userid=99365154632845&tab_id=50&site_id=74&site_media_id=0

$50 for porn? screw that...I don't think anyone would pay that much money for 1 porn movie unless they are a big pervert.

Newness!
Price will decrease:
http://www.adameve.com/adult-movies/hd-dvd-c-735.aspx

Your article fails to mention some very significant points that should not be overlooked, such as:

* That the majority of PS3 owners bought the PS3 for games, not movies
* That ALL X360 HD DVD add-on owners are soley for HD DVD movies
* That Toshiba HD DVD players sell out as quickly as they can stock them
* Does not note that Blu-Ray disc sales have always lagged behind HD DVD
* Did not mention the In-Movie-Experience and U-Control that is winning HD DVD fans
* Failed to underscore that though Blu-Ray has been improving, HD DVD has been consistently better and has won High-Def Digest's Best Of 2006 list
* Did not note that although BD50 discs have begun shipping, they have yet to prove to be any better than HD30 since PQ still lags behind or, at best, only matches HD DVD

Despite Blu-Ray's specs and improvements, HD DVD has the momentum behind it that shows no signs whatsoever of slowing down. Nice article, but I agree you missed some signifcant points facoring HD DVD. Some of these points tend to negate Blu-ray's largest asset, the studio support, because they will give studios pause.

Besides TSD's posts which include some points you missed, Midnight's comments above are the major items you missed.

HD DVD has shown huge attach rates which implies customer satisfaction and has sold almost all the players manufactured. Those factors have probably not be lost on studios. The PS3 production and thus sales has been slower than expected and has not delivered a knock out blow to HD DVD over the critical holiday season. The Xbox 360 HD DVD addon was not even considered by most analysts last year.

In short, the longer HD DVD survives the more likely its costs will go down to consumer friendly mass adoption levels.

I have said before that street prices of $19.99 for software and $199 for hardware are the critical adoption points. HD DVD is looking better and better at reaching those points before Blu-ray does, and even before the PS3 itself reaches those price points.

But overall, I liked the article and I think you tried to be fair, but the adoption rates and XBox 360 HD sales were the more significant omissions.

As for HD-DVD having more titles out... ok, by what 15%? What about BD outnumbering HD-DVD players 3 to 1? Shouldn't that make up for the 15% less titles?



According to The DVD Wars (http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/) there are 168 Blu-ray titles versus 163 HD DVD titles that can be purchased today. Ergo, I don't think the BDA can use the lack of titles as a reason for lackluster sales.

As to your number of 1.5:1, if it is true, I am still not that discouraged. Remember that Blu-ray still has significantly fewer titles in the market.


:confused:

Significantly fewer? BD has 168 titles that can be purchased today, and HD-DVD has 163 (according to DVD Wars). HD-DVD has 148 that can acutally ship, BD has 128. How are either of these "significantly fewer?"

A French received his 200th HD DVD several days ago.
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29823334&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=4020#170393521

I thought the article was very fair considering the bias. There were a couple of rather obvious omissions though - no mention of price for the stand alone BD players, only the PS3 and no mention of software sales even though most of the studios support BD at the moment. The article would have appeared less biased if you have asked another question, being - how is it that with many more companies making BD players and much more studio support BD software sales are not beating HD DVD software sales to a pulp? You also state as a fact that Toshiba is subsidizing their players, but don't confirm this with references. The "subsidization" may be true, but you need to be able to support this as a fact, not just throw it out there as fact. If you can't support this as fact then why should we believe you on this point and if not on this point then why on any and every other point in the article? If you lack credibility on one point you then compromise every other point (whether accurate or not) and your entire thesis stands to be impugned.

As far as BD supporters go you are by far one of the fairest and your primary interest appears to be the attainment of the best quality PQ and AQ possible, unlike many here, who seem to me, to be on a religious crusade.

I suspect that its not what we know, but rather what we don't know that's going to win this war.

Cheers,

Grant

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

* majority bought the ps3 for games only?

----> what about bought ps3 for games and movies? like most of us do. most people who like games also like movies. they present the largest install base on this planet!

* That ALL X360 HD DVD add-on owners are soley for HD DVD movies

----> so far i agree, but i am still hoping it will be used for games as well

* That Toshiba HD DVD players sell out as quickly as they can stock them

----> true but how many units does every store get? 1,2 ? 1000?

* Does not note that Blu-Ray disc sales have always lagged behind HD DVD

-----> based on what? amazon rankings???? looooooooooooooool

* Did not mention the In-Movie-Experience and U-Control that is winning HD DVD fans

-----> is that so? how many people buy a HD-MOVIE just for U-control or IME?
i bet if picure quality and audio quality would be bad, people wouldnt care at all. that said, i agree it helps in overall value of the disc and experience.

* Failed to underscore that though Blu-Ray has been improving, HD DVD has been consistently better and has won High-Def Digest's Best Of 2006 list.

----------> HD-DVD consistenly better? i have 52 titles now on HD-DVD but some are real stinkers. just like bluray has titles that are bad as well. but i agree HD-DVD has the top teir title PQ wise with the Hulk. but not consistently putting movies out with that quality. which ofcourse is impossible too ,if you have a bad master.

* Did not note that although BD50 discs have begun shipping, they have yet to prove to be any better than HD30 since PQ still lags behind or, at best, only matches HD DVD

----------> you dont answer it complete. what about better audio? bluray has much more loss less audio tracks then HD-DVd at this moment. if King Kong would be released on bluray because of 50GB could have had a LPCM track or DTS-MA track on it. while on HD-DVd King Kong only has a DD+ track because of the 30gb limitation.

so in other words size does matter. specially for larger movies. and that doesnt always have to do with PQ, but AQ as well.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

* majority bought the ps3 for games only?

----> what about bought ps3 for games and movies? like most of us do. most people who like games also like movies. they present the largest install base on this planet!

Yes, but what attach rates ? People only have limited money to spend on entertainment - when they buy games, thats money going away from movies.


* Does not note that Blu-Ray disc sales have always lagged behind HD DVD

-----> based on what? amazon rankings???? looooooooooooooool


Multiple sources, including CED.

----------> you dont answer it complete. what about better audio? bluray has much more loss less audio tracks then HD-DVd at this moment.

How many can recognize lossless vs dd+ in db test ? Anyway, marketability of better audio has been laid to rest with sacd/dvd-a.

If companies like Disney and Fox chose BD from the start, why would they switch 2 months in and while both HD and BD have only around 200,00o stand alone players. It just seems premature to switch 2 minutes into the game.

And for the record, even though I support BD i didnt think they would be able to take the lead in December as at the time their were still too few titles, and HD had to big of a lead. When there is a winner in this war its not happening overnight.

If companies like Disney and Fox chose BD from the start, why would they switch 2 months in and while both HD and BD have only around 200,00o stand alone players. It just seems premature to switch 2 minutes into the game.



They won't. Don't believe anything you read, unless it comes directly (not indirectly from a fanboy or "reporter") from a studio executive in a press release.

They won't. Don't believe anything you read, unless it comes directly (not indirectly from a fanboy or "reporter") from a studio executive in a press release.

When did that become a credible source? ;)

- Tom

They won't. Don't believe anything you read, unless it comes directly (not indirectly from a fanboy or "reporter") from a studio executive in a press release.

Sure I'll follow your advice and not believe what you just wrote :p

:confused:

Significantly fewer? BD has 168 titles that can be purchased today, and HD-DVD has 163 (according to DVD Wars). HD-DVD has 148 that can acutally ship, BD has 128. How are either of these "significantly fewer?"

What did these numbers look like two months ago?

Good article RLSmith.

For those of you saying his bias is negatively impacting the article, reread it without the last sentence or two. The article is dead on, and to think otherwise is to have drunk the HD DVD/AVS coolaid. HD DVD HAS performed much better on their strategy, but their strategy is (and has always been) from a point of weakness in the war. The BDA strategy has been poorly executed, but has far more guns. This will likely show at CES, and I am very much interested in year end numbers, because they won't be anything like what fanboys here are expecting (remember that 11:1 hype that was being touted in the same month when Toshiba said it was 3:1? and even thedvedwars.com has shown that BDs have closed the gap almost entirely, despite fewer releases and the fact that Amazon's not exactly the most accurate tracker of sales).

I bet that HD-DVD has a lot more up it's sleaves. BDA has shown us their hands. We got the PS3, all the studio support, and all the CE support.

HD-DVD is winning with a lot less. The more they add, the more I'd be worried if I was exclusive to the BDA camp.

People are glossing over these two points without really realizing right now how this truely hurts the BDA. The big problem the BDA will continue to have is that the public isn't going to mass buy into these formats yet, and are still content to buy regular DVDs. That is going to make it vastly more difficult for Blu-ray to "catch up". And thus, why studios who are exclusive to one format or the other are going to have to go neutral at some point to broaden their audience to make more money on their titles.

If HD DVD titles continues to sell while Blu-ray titles don't, it isn't going to take much longer before Disney and Fox start to wonder why they aren't supporting the better selling format.


And do the Blu-ray supporters really believe that Toshiba has been simply content to sit on the sidelines now and do nothing? Does anyone think they aren't looking at the Blu-ray release list and forming a counter to it? Universal is just sitting around thinking You, Me, and Dupree is the counter to Fox? They got to see what Fox is releasing, and I'm hoping they are now going through their catalog for their next push.

The BDA had no choice for to push it's exclusive studios to blow a big wad of release dates. They have to start gaining some sort of traction in the market. If it was the other way around, Universal might have done the same thing.

People are glossing over these two points without really realizing right now how this truely hurts the BDA. The big problem the BDA will continue to have is that the public isn't going to mass buy into these formats yet, and are still content to buy regular DVDs. That is going to make it vastly more difficult for Blu-ray to "catch up". And thus, why studios who are exclusive to one format or the other are going to have to go neutral at some point to broaden their audience to make more money on their titles.

If HD DVD titles continues to sell while Blu-ray titles don't, it isn't going to take much longer before Disney and Fox start to wonder why they aren't supporting the better selling format.


And do the Blu-ray supporters really believe that Toshiba has been simply content to sit on the sidelines now and do nothing? Does anyone think they aren't looking at the Blu-ray release list and forming a counter to it? Universal is just sitting around thinking You, Me, and Dupree is the counter to Fox? They got to see what Fox is releasing, and I'm hoping they are now going through their catalog for their next push.

The BDA had no choice for to push it's exclusive studios to blow a big wad of release dates. They have to start gaining some sort of traction in the market. If it was the other way around, Universal might have done the same thing.

The thing is that Fox, Disney, Sony and Lionsgate can keep pushing as they combined easily have many many more titles and especially over the last decade have produced more note worthy titles that have made a lot more money in ticket and DVD sales. If they want to support BD the nUniversal can only hold on for so long on its own and they will have to fold a lot quicker than the oher companies do. That is an easier end to the war. If universal folds then HD dies and we have 1 new High Def format and that is what people will buy. Some people might be angry but they will deal with it. Im rooting for BD but if HD wins I say "Oh Well" and buy into HD. Im a movie fan first and foremost.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

* That Toshiba HD DVD players sell out as quickly as they can stock them

----> true but how many units does every store get? 1,2 ? 1000?

Some retailers get in and sell out thousands. And I would assume I am not the only dealer who does a very high volume of HD DVD player sales.

The Gen 1 and Gen 2 player sales have been very strong and steady.

-Robert

Nice article -- one of the best on the format war I have read. After checking the upcoming release slate for HD-DVD and Blu-ray, I think your conclusion is warranted.

Good article RLSmith.

For those of you saying his bias is negatively impacting the article, reread it without the last sentence or two. The article is dead on, and to think otherwise is to have drunk the HD DVD/AVS coolaid. HD DVD HAS performed much better on their strategy, but their strategy is (and has always been) from a point of weakness in the war. The BDA strategy has been poorly executed, but has far more guns. This will likely show at CES, and I am very much interested in year end numbers, because they won't be anything like what fanboys here are expecting (remember that 11:1 hype that was being touted in the same month when Toshiba said it was 3:1? and even thedvedwars.com has shown that BDs have closed the gap almost entirely, despite fewer releases and the fact that Amazon's not exactly the most accurate tracker of sales).

I don't agree with your statement saying HD DVD is dealing from a point of weakness. Toshiba beat BD by several critical months with their hardware launch and priced the hardware very well to gain market share, which they achieved very well. If Toshiba was in a weak position they sure have come out on top with far more player sales than all BD hardware manufacturers added together (gaming consoles excluded).

Firmware upgrades have been addressed promptly and accurately. BD companies barely address firmware fixes and upgrades.

True HD audio is an advantage for HD DVD, hardware prices are a considerable advantage for HD DVD and more advanced gen 2 HD DVD players are hitting the market as we speak.

Considering all of the facts and the quick and pro-active culture Toshiba is applying to the HD DVD format they have the upper had in many respects. If HD DVD gets more studio support BD will have a very tough time succeding.

-Robert

According to The DVD Wars (http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/) there are 168 Blu-ray titles versus 163 HD DVD titles that can be purchased today. Ergo, I don't think the BDA can use the lack of titles as a reason for lackluster sales.

Many of those are preorders that are not actually available yet, and more for Blu-ray than for HD DVD, since Blu-ray has many more announced titles than HD DVD.

Titles actually available today have Blu-ray about 20 behind. See the "shippable" ranking on the same web site.

We carry 163 HD DVD titles in our inventory.

-Robert

The thing is that Fox, Disney, Sony and Lionsgate can keep pushing as they combined easily have many many more titles and especially over the last decade have produced more note worthy titles that have made a lot more money in ticket and DVD sales. If they want to support BD the nUniversal can only hold on for so long on its own and they will have to fold a lot quicker than the oher companies do. That is an easier end to the war. If universal folds then HD dies and we have 1 new High Def format and that is what people will buy. Some people might be angry but they will deal with it. Im rooting for BD but if HD wins I say "Oh Well" and buy into HD. Im a movie fan first and foremost.


Every fanboy on this site has it all wrong. It seems to always be about "winning," and what you don't understand is that there won't be a "winner," in the sense that there must be a "loser."

Currently BD has a huge edge in Studio and CE support. They aren't winning in hardware (non game) sales, and in software sales. HD-DVD even won December when players outnumbered them 3:1. The BDA had a much better Christmas release slate than HD-DVD imho as well. Yet HD-DVD still won.

The point is, and some execs are starting to see it:

THE CONSUMER DOESN'T WANT A FORMAT WAR.

So there were two ways to do deal with that. As others have hinted some Studios picked the side they were "guaranteed," to win thanks to the PS3. One exec feels "lied to," by Sony. When their own marketing group did research they found that the attach rates for the PS3 were to be far, far, far lower than Sony was claiming. Sony said "Wait, we will win December, it is inevitable," and it DIDN'T HAPPEN.

So Studios are watching HD-DVD win, and the consumers....

STILL DON'T WANT A FORMAT WAR!!!

This isn't a game machine. This isn't about whose games are better. We've had a landslide of gamers try and turn this thing into a real format war.

It doesn't have to be. With LGF making the switch to neutrality you get the first of many to make that decision. Disney will be next.

We don't want a format war. If every studio was neutral there wouldn't be one. It would be like chosing a CD from a downloaded Ipod song. Sure there are two formats, but it's not hurting the consumer, so the consumer makes the purchase that makes most sense to them.

That would likely be HD-DVD (cheaper usually wins).

Universal says they will remain exclusive as long as Sony does. The executives at Time Warner saw the signs and said "We're not picking sides, let the consumer do that," and went neutral.

Going neutral is GOOD for EVERYONE.

BD fanboys should WANT more neutral studios. If LGF, Disney, FOX, and MGM go neutral it just means more likely that Sony and Universal will.

100% Neutral studios means no war for the consumer. It means peace of mind in purchasing a product. Sure one might outsell the other, but both will exist.

Many of those are preorders that are not actually available yet, and more for Blu-ray than for HD DVD, since Blu-ray has many more announced titles than HD DVD.

Titles actually available today have Blu-ray about 20 behind. See the "shippable" ranking on the same web site.

I did not realize their "Number of DVDs that can be purchased today" statistic included pre-orders -- please accept my apologies. Irregardless, if one format has 20+ more titles than the other I think it all comes out in the wash.

Good article. While I disagree with a bit of it, it was well written and perfectly within the convention of a standard editorial.

INteresting post tsd. Do you have some sort of inside information which indicates more than we know now? You seem to be quite positive about the HDDVD solution.

Every fanboy on this site has it all wrong. It seems to always be about "winning," and what you don't understand is that there won't be a "winner," in the sense that there must be a "loser."

Currently BD has a huge edge in Studio and CE support. They aren't winning in hardware (non game) sales, and in software sales. HD-DVD even won December when players outnumbered them 3:1. The BDA had a much better Christmas release slate than HD-DVD imho as well. Yet HD-DVD still won.

The point is, and some execs are starting to see it:

THE CONSUMER DOESN'T WANT A FORMAT WAR.

So there were two ways to do deal with that. As others have hinted some Studios picked the side they were "guaranteed," to win thanks to the PS3. One exec feels "lied to," by Sony. When their own marketing group did research they found that the attach rates for the PS3 were to be far, far, far lower than Sony was claiming. Sony said "Wait, we will win December, it is inevitable," and it DIDN'T HAPPEN.

So Studios are watching HD-DVD win, and the consumers....

STILL DON'T WANT A FORMAT WAR!!!

This isn't a game machine. This isn't about whose games are better. We've had a landslide of gamers try and turn this thing into a real format war.

It doesn't have to be. With LGF making the switch to neutrality you get the first of many to make that decision. Disney will be next.

We don't want a format war. If every studio was neutral there wouldn't be one. It would be like chosing a CD from a downloaded Ipod song. Sure there are two formats, but it's not hurting the consumer, so the consumer makes the purchase that makes most sense to them.

That would likely be HD-DVD (cheaper usually wins).

Universal says they will remain exclusive as long as Sony does. The executives at Time Warner saw the signs and said "We're not picking sides, let the consumer do that," and went neutral.

Going neutral is GOOD for EVERYONE.

BD fanboys should WANT more neutral studios. If LGF, Disney, FOX, and MGM go neutral it just means more likely that Sony and Universal will.

100% Neutral studios means no war for the consumer. It means peace of mind in purchasing a product. Sure one might outsell the other, but both will exist.

I agree, sort of. I dont want a war so let Universal switch and end it. Ive said it repeatedly, why would 5 companies switch when 1 can to have the same effect. Again, The BD exclusive companies chose BD for a reason so why would they switch so very, very, very early. Most people still dont know what BD and HD is. Im still the only one I know that has either format and I hang out with a lot of people who love movies. They might as well give it a go on the format they chose initally and like I said It will be hard for Universal to keep up. If Sony, Disney, and Fox want BD to win and the companies that are neutral stay neutral then it is gonna be hard for Universal and Toshiba to Stop that. Each month as more titles are released and more public start becoming aware of the 2 formats they are gonna start noticing that BD exclusive titles are coming out at a rate of 4 or 5 to 1. I know things could change at CES but without someone going neutral and prolonging the war it cant last more than a year or 2 at most.

INteresting post tsd. Do you have some sort of inside information which indicates more than we know now? You seem to be quite positive about the HDDVD solution.

I know someone at a Studio that is currently exclusive to BD. He is rather high up in the system. He and others are starting to compare the war to SACD/DVD-A where nobody won because consumers:

1. Weren't educated on it, and had no idea what it meant.

2. It was a format war with record labels picking sides, and nobody winning. Consumers didn't want to invest in something not knowing if their favorite music would all make it on the format.

Ofcourse the number 2 situation only happened for those consumers who were able to even know what the two were.

HD-DVD and BD are right now fighting a losing battle. The initial marketing group reports had Studios estimating MUCH larger sales. The reason is simple:

CONSUMERS WANT HIGH DEFINITION CONTENT

The consumers are now buying HDTV sets. They need content. HDMI (the one cable solution) is a SMART consumer decision, it is much easier to deal with than Component, etc. Simplifying things into one cable is brilliant.

However consumers are still confused MASSIVELY about 480p, 720p, 1080i, 1080p, etc. Not to mention the new audio codecs!

The Studios know that market reports show that the consumer wants a simple HD solution. They know they want that content. They also know that sales are MUCH LOWER than estimated. This can be blamed on hardware issues, but it's also primarily the fault of the FORMAT WAR.

Attachment rates are incredibly low on the PS3. HD-DVD is winning the software sales war. However recent reports state that the majority of HDTV buyers said they wanted to wait before buying into the HD Content Players. They were either confused or wanted to see "who would win."

Right now there is a winner or loser outlook. This exec I know is thinking this could end up more like LPs and Cassettes if Studios level the playing field. Neutrality is a good thing to promote the sales of either format.

If you make the consumer worry less, they are more likely to buy. The only way that will happen now is:

1. One side wins.

or

2. Studio Neutrality.

Number 1 can't happen anytime soon, and I believe PS3 sales, and the success of HD-DVD have shown that both will be around for awhile.

That leaves number 2 as the most likely solution to getting the consumer to buy into either format. That is why LGF and Disney will be the first to go neutral and FOX will not be far behind. MGM has to worry about Sony owning 20% and not pissing them off, but they will be making that same decision as well.

Then it will come down to Sony and Universal, and I think when/if that time comes both will make the switch to Neutrality at the same time.

Thus allowing consumers to make the decision they want. For Sony, their brand image should be enough. They've been winning the TV battle for ages...

There is room for two HD Content formats to thrive. It can only happen with studio neutrality. Until then sales for both will remain lower than they potentially could be.

Plus you still have to educate the masses.

I agree, sort of. I dont want a war so let Universal switch and end it. Ive said it repeatedly, why would 5 companies switch when 1 can to have the same effect. Again, The BD exclusive companies chose BD for a reason so why would they switch so very, very, very early. Most people still dont know what BD and HD is. Im still the only one I know that has either format and I hang out with a lot of people who love movies. They might as well give it a go on the format they chose initally and like I said It will be hard for Universal to keep up. If Sony, Disney, and Fox want BD to win and the companies that are neutral stay neutral then it is gonna be hard for Universal and Toshiba to Stop that. Each month as more titles are released and more public start becoming aware of the 2 formats they are gonna start noticing that BD exclusive titles are coming out at a rate of 4 or 5 to 1. I know things could change at CES but without someone going neutral and prolonging the war it cant last more than a year or 2 at most.

The common consumer won't buy into HD Content if there is a war. Just like they didn't buy into the SACD/DVD-A formats. Fighting at the consumer's expense is never a good thing.

Universal will hold out longer than any studio. They don't care about the BD sales and won't for YEARS. They care about DVD sales. For Universal it's not about the money it's about how the whole format war came about. They aren't going to let Sony BUY a format war.

In fact you and others keep asking about changes "so early," it's not that early. By the time the Studios that are exclusive start releasing in a neutral format the war will be close to a year old. It will compare a lot to the time frames of DVD and DIVX.

Most importantly Sony is paying for portions of software production costs. That timeframe is quickly coming to an end. When that is over, HD-DVD is going to look that much more enticing.

Again Universal will hold out the longest of the bunch. So if you want to see titles on both sides, the best thing to do is hope that Disney makes their switch SOONER rather than later. Because when DISNEY makes their switch, FOX & MGM will be right behind them.

Then it's just Sony and Universal. They will both make the switch to neutrality at the same time.

An all Neutral Studio world is best for consumers and best for either format in surviving. A format war just means nobody will win.

The common consumer won't buy into HD Content if there is a war. Just like they didn't buy into the SACD/DVD-A formats. Fighting at the consumer's expense is never a good thing.

Universal will hold out longer than any studio. They don't care about the BD sales and won't for YEARS. They care about DVD sales. For Universal it's not about the money it's about how the whole format war came about. They aren't going to let Sony BUY a format war.

In fact you and others keep asking about changes "so early," it's not that early. By the time the Studios that are exclusive start releasing in a neutral format the war will be close to a year old. It will compare a lot to the time frames of DVD and DIVX.

Most importantly Sony is paying for portions of software production costs. That timeframe is quickly coming to an end. When that is over, HD-DVD is going to look that much more enticing.

Again Universal will hold out the longest of the bunch. So if you want to see titles on both sides, the best thing to do is hope that Disney makes their switch SOONER rather than later. Because when DISNEY makes their switch, FOX & MGM will be right behind them.

Then it's just Sony and Universal. They will both make the switch to neutrality at the same time.

An all Neutral Studio world is best for consumers and best for either format in surviving. A format war just means nobody will win.

I dont need neutrality. On average 90% or so of content is or will be available on BD. Neutrality is pointless. Why would every studio put out the same title on 2 HD formats for the nex 10 years or so just because of the first 100 or 200 thousand hi def fans were split. Their goals is going to get 100 million BD or HD player out there and have them in every home. They dont want 50 million of one and 50 million of the other when basically it is the same thing.

You know, we all have our opinions on whats going to happen. So far, I have yet to a single one thats been correct.

Hey some of my predictions have been correct:

- 200 HD titles
- Bad discs getting through quality control (both formats)

I agree, sort of. I dont want a war so let Universal switch and end it. Ive said it repeatedly, why would 5 companies switch when 1 can to have the same effect.


Ok, that would be easier except that HD DVD is the current market preference. Why should the leader in the race drop behind just to let second place take the checkered flag? It's not that easy, there is too much money invested. Going neutral by all studios is the only choice that makes sense. Let the market decide. I see a lot of BD supporters saying exactly what you said here instead of supporting neutrality. Why is that? It's not that hard for a studio to produce product for both camps. I think the reason most BD supporters say what you did is because they know if the other studios went neutral HD DVD would probably win the format war.

Ok, that would be easier except that HD DVD is the current market preference. Why should the leader in the race drop behind just to let second place take the checkered flag? It's not that easy, there is too much money invested. Going neutral by all studios is the only choice that makes sense. Let the market decide. I see a lot of BD supporters saying exactly what you said here instead of supporting neutrality. Why is that? It's not that hard for a studio to produce product for both camps. I think the reason most BD supporters say what you did is because they know if the other studios went neutral HD DVD would probably win the format war.

WHY? WHY? WHY? I can not understand the logic of prolonging a war and having 2 formats. I dont want 2 formats. Nobody wants 2 formats. That is just pointless. I dont want a mix of red and blue cases on my shelves. HD has the lead now but its not a big lead and its still way to early. High Def formats havent even occupied 1% of SD players. So if the companies that make on average of about 50% of film box office grosses want one format, and then about 40% want both formats and the lonely 10% or so want to be the only one supporting a format then why drag it out.

why would 5 companies switch when 1 can to have the same effect. Again, The BD exclusive companies chose BD for a reason so why would they switch so very, very, very early.

They could switch because the reasons they chose BD turned out differently than expected. Perhaps promises were made that weren't kept. Perhaps reality has spoken louder than hype. Who knows?

They could switch because the reasons they chose BD turned out differently than expected. Perhaps promises were made that weren't kept. Perhaps reality has spoken louder than hype. Who knows?

What reality? The reality that the handful of HD fans on here are louder than the handful of BD fans on here? If movie companies executives jumped ship and changed their minds over the slightest blips on the radar (and thats what HD and BD are right now) then they wouldnt be good at their jobs. None of them are gonna overeact to anything just yet. Why would they?

If Universal announced going neutral at CES I wouldn't be the least bit concerned at this point. One studio going neutral is not going to make a difference. If it did, HD DVD would not have sold a single disk with only one exclusive large studio. Obviously thats not the case, since HD DVD is ahead in every single category. Exclusive studios has not helped BR at all. The biggest sellers have been the neutral studio titles.

I believe all studios will be forced to go neutral this year for one simple reason. If they don't, neither side will win and they will be stuck with dvd for another 10 years. That, is the very last thing they want to happen.

The studios are in this for 2 reasons.
1. Profit
2. Better protection for the product.

They don't care who wins, just as long as one does. They all thought it would be BR by a lanslide. That is not going to happen now and they will adjust their plans accordingly.

With LGF making the switch to neutrality you get the first of many to make that decision.Just to be clear, your position is that Lions Gate will definitely be announcing neutrality at CES (by Janaury 12th or so). Is that right?
I think the reason most BD supporters say what you did is because they know if the other studios went neutral HD DVD would probably win the format war.That same logic could be used to say that Disney shouldn't go neutral unless they are resigned to HD DVD winning or an even longer war. And a similar kind of thing for Universal, although them going neutral could be even more significant as far as giving the win to the other side.

--Darin

WHY? WHY? WHY? I can not understand the logic of prolonging a war and having 2 formats. I dont want 2 formats. Nobody wants 2 formats. That is just pointless.

But there are 2 formats, with both camps having invested heavily. That's a fact that can't be changed at this point.

I dont want a mix of red and blue cases on my shelves.

Wah. These are movies, not necessities.

HD has the lead now but its not a big lead and its still way to early.

So you admit HD DVD is ahead, but they should throw in the towel. Why not let the format in 2nd place concede to the winning side? You act like thousands of BR titles are already pressed to disc and whole libraries would have to be reworked. The fact is that both formats have a similar number of releases to date, so it's the same amount of rework. And the earlier BR titles need reworked anyway, it might as well be on HD DVD.

So if the companies that make on average of about 50% of film box office grosses want one format, and then about 40% want both formats and the lonely 10% or so want to be the only one supporting a format then why drag it out.

This is a circular question. You're asking it with respect to studios going neutral. Well, if a studio goes neutral, then they don't still want one format, do they?

Why can't you just be reasonable and admit that YOU don't want to have to replace YOUR player and YOUR library. There's no shame in picking the losing format. Somebody has to.

If HD DVD titles continues to sell while Blu-ray titles don't ...
I believe that according to tsd2005 the end of the year numbers from videoscan will show that at the end of the year HD DVD was running at about a 1.5:1 advantage for software sales, although maybe that was a longer period and not the run rate right at the end. Is that what you consider one selling and the other not selling?

--Darin

What reality? The reality that the handful of HD fans on here are louder than the handful of BD fans on here? If movie companies executives jumped ship and changed their minds over the slightest blips on the radar (and thats what HD and BD are right now) then they wouldnt be good at their jobs. None of them are gonna overeact to anything just yet. Why would they?

Because they don't want a repeat of sacd/dvd-a.

What reality? The reality that the handful of HD fans on here are louder than the handful of BD fans on here? If movie companies executives jumped ship and changed their minds over the slightest blips on the radar (and thats what HD and BD are right now) then they wouldnt be good at their jobs. None of them are gonna overeact to anything just yet. Why would they?

The reality is that HD DVD is outselling BR despite all the alleged advantages and despite the fact that HD DVD was supposed to be behind by now. If both camps are just blips right now, then what difference does it make who switches? 90% studio support means NOTHING on paper. How much effort does it take to change your mind on paper? There are THOUSANDS of titles out there that haven't been pressed to ANY next gen disc yet and can just as easily be put on one as the other.

Who are you to judge what makes a movie executive good at his/her job? They made decisions based on the information available to them at the time. If they feel that the circumstances have turned out differently, and that it warrants rethinking their strategy, who are YOU to say that's a poor decision?

Just to be clear, your position is that Lions Gate will definitely be announcing neutrality at CES (by Janaury 12th or so). Is that right?
That same logic could be used to say that Disney shouldn't go neutral unless they are resigned to HD DVD winning or an even longer war. And a similar kind of thing for Universal, although them going neutral could be even more significant as far as giving the win to the other side.

--Darin

If all the studios went neutral this war would be over much quicker than if they didn't.

The studios tried to force a winner but they now are seeing that is not going to work. The consumer has screwed up their plans by supporting HD DVD in larger numbers than they ever expected and in much smaller numbers for BR than they expected.

It will now be decided by the consumer and that means by price.

Universal is just sitting around thinking You, Me, and Dupree is the counter to Fox? They got to see what Fox is releasing, and I'm hoping they are now going through their catalog for their next push.Based on box office numbers it looks like Universal is going to have to dig deeper into their choices (and go with more older hits) if they really want to counter the other side. Of their top 5 box office titles from the last 4 years, they have already released 14 out of 20. For 2005 and 2006 they have already released 8 out of 10. All they have left of their top 5 box office titles from each of the years to release are:

2003: Bruce Almighty, American Wedding
2004: Meet the Fockers, Along Came Polly
2005: The 40-Year-Old Virgin
2006: Inside Man

While it is impressive that Universal would release 80% of their 5 top box office draws of the last 2 years in the first 9 months of the format, it makes it more difficult for them to continue at that pace. Much like a deck of cards where a lot of good cards come out at first. It means they can't come out later, even though some may interpret it as a great deck of cards. I will be interested to see how many of the above get announced at CES.

--Darin

WHY? WHY? WHY? I can not understand the logic of prolonging a war and having 2 formats. I dont want 2 formats. Nobody wants 2 formats. That is just pointless. I dont want a mix of red and blue cases on my shelves. HD has the lead now but its not a big lead and its still way to early. High Def formats havent even occupied 1% of SD players. So if the companies that make on average of about 50% of film box office grosses want one format, and then about 40% want both formats and the lonely 10% or so want to be the only one supporting a format then why drag it out.


You're right nobody really wants two formats, but at the same time we are talking about huge investments here. Why do you care if it's a bit more expensive for the studios to produce dual products? It's not your money and the additional sales gains will offset the cost. I don't think a company, on either side, should throw away all the capital they've spent in developing a format just because you want to color coordinate your collection. This ain't Queer Eye For The HD Guy. The fact is that not everyone supports the format that you support just the same as you don't support HD DVD. Let the consumer decide not the corporations. If HD DVD didn't exist we would probably be saddled with the substandard releases that constituted initial (and still plague some current) BD titles. You shouldn't want a victory to be bought and paid for, you should want the best format to win. Now is that HD DVD or BD? Well specs would say BD, but specs mean nothing in the real world. The only thing that means something is the quality of the product that is out in the market and, sorry to say, right now HD DVD is putting forth a better effort in that department. Sure BD has more CE support and studio support, but that means nothing if the product is not putting it's best foot forth and BD certainly isn't at this point. Yes BD has produced some very nice titles, but even now 6 months after launch they are producing some real stinkers much more frequently than the HD camp. As I said before, if all studios went neutral, HD DVD would win. They have name recognition, much better pricing (J6P is not going to by a PS3 as a standalone player) and better overall quality at this point. I find it funny that BD supporters use the "just wait" line constantly. It's like asking an official to add more laps after the race has started just to allow the 2nd place driver time to take the lead.

If all the studios went neutral this war would be over much quicker than if they didn't.Taking the position for a second that HD DVD would win in the above scenario, would you agree that the war would be over quicker if Disney switched sides (abandoned Blu-ray) than if they went neutral?

We could also look at the scenario where you think the above would make Blu-ray the winner, but I'm guessing that isn't what you believe and so I'll stick with the HD DVD being the winner in your scenario unless you say you think it would be the other way around.

Studios are supposed to make decisions individually, so that is really what matters to a person at a studio trying to decide what they should do, other than some collusion that they might or might not get away with. If one person were making the decisions for all studios they could of course choose to have the format war be basically over tomorrow, by only supporting one side.

I doubt Disney will go neutral unless they are willing to give up the bandwidth and 50GB of space of Blu-ray, if they understand that going neutral would be more likely to bring about a scenario where those capabilities are not really available to them in the future (at least not for the majority of discs they will sell with high definition encodings).

--Darin

If all the studios went neutral this war would be over much quicker than if they didn't.

The studios tried to force a winner but they now are seeing that is not going to work. The consumer has screwed up their plans by supporting HD DVD in larger numbers than they ever expected and in much smaller numbers for BR than they expected.

It will now be decided by the consumer and that means by price.

...and QUALITY!! I own both, but my HD DVD's look better across the board. And from the reviews I have seen, even BD only supporters admit that their titles are grainier....and I don't think it is just film grain....but even if it is it is too much grain for HT users to be happy with. Most consumers don't know what film grain is, and will likely see that as an inferior picture. Some grain is fine, but BD titles seem excessive. Feels to me like they are rushing them out to market too fast. The argument that BD buys you better quality has been proven wrong. Now if BD used newer codecs and did a better job mastering their releases THEN quaity would be a draw and price would decide.

In my view, BD supporters should THANK HD DVD for forcing BD studios to give a damn about quality! Competition is good here.

I agree somewhat with curlyjive, the poster above. One way to look at this is a) competition is good for many reasons and b) consumer have many choices when they are buying consumer products, why not HD DVD or BD.

Personally and professionally, I believe one optical disc format would be best for all of us, but consider this.

We all have to make choices, when you are buying a flat panel HDTV you can get a LCD or plasma or a gaming console where you need to decide on Nintendo, Sony or MS and when we select our programming source we need to decide on satellite or cable programming. HD DVD or BD is just another consumer choice.

Can both co-exist? Maybe so.

-Robert

Taking the position for a second that HD DVD would win in the above scenario, would you agree that the war would be over quicker if Disney switched sides (abandoned Blu-ray) than if they went neutral?

We could also look at the scenario where you think the above would make Blu-ray the winner, but I'm guessing that isn't what you believe and so I'll stick with the HD DVD being the winner in your scenario unless you say you think it would be the other way around.

Studios are supposed to make decisions individually, so that is really what matters to a person at a studio trying to decide what they should do, other than some collusion that they might or might not get away with. If one person were making the decisions for all studios they could of course choose to have the format war be basically over tomorrow, by only supporting one side.

I doubt Disney will go neutral unless they are willing to give up the bandwidth and 50GB of space of Blu-ray, if they understand that going neutral would be more likely to bring about a scenario where those capabilities are not really available to them in the future (at least not for the majority of discs they will sell with high definition encodings).

--Darin

I don't see any possibilty of any studio switching sides. Neutral yes, switching sides no. I also don't believe Disney going neutral alone will make much of a difference over the next year or so. They won't release any real animation titles in that time frame anyway.

I don't believe bandwidth is a huge conern for Disney since their big catalog titles are animation and don't need the extra bandwidth anyway.

I do believe that neutrality would benefit HD DVD more than it would BR. But, to be honest, I am more concerened about HD being accepted by the public than I am about who wins, BR or HD DVD. Lets let the market decide. I will accept whatever happens, obviously.

I do believe that neutrality would benefit HD DVD more than it would BR. But, to be honest, I am more concerened about HD being accepted by the public than I am about who wins, BR or HD DVD. Lets let the market decide. I will accept whatever happens, obviously.


No matter what anyone on this board says, everyone here will accept the outcome. This is still an enthusiast forum and nobody here will be able to resist having some type of HD optical format. But under the current system, neither side will be embraced by the public and both formats will likely become only a niche product. Neutrality (by all studios including Universal and Sony) is the only way for there to be a clear winner in the future.

I don't believe bandwidth is a huge conern for Disney since their big catalog titles are animation and don't need the extra bandwidth anyway.The Disney group controls lots of non-animations. We are talking about the group that controls, "Pirates of the Caribean", "Sin City", "Pulp Fiction", "Kill Bill #1 and #2", and lots of other things not in the animation realm. And their Japanese side has already shown that they will do something that is difficult to do with HD DVD, release a disc with 2 lossless audio tracks (Japanese and English).
Lets let the market decide. I will accept whatever happens, obviously.Of course you can feel that the market should decide. If you owned a bunch of content and letting the market decide would decrease your chances of being able to deliver some stuff you want to deliver, you might feel differently.

Consider a professional bike rider who rides a bike from company A and prefers it to another company's bikes. People ask him why he won't support company B and let the public decide which bikes they buy and whether one of the two companies either goes out of business or ends up with very reduced resources. Well, if he truely wants to be able to continue riding bikes from company A in the future with the kind of support he wants, he may realize that supporting company B might hurt his chances of having something he wants to ride in a couple of years.

The studios are much like bike riders and the formats like the bikes that are provided to them. If a studio helps bring about the demise of one format, then they will have brought about the demise of any advantages that side brought to the table compared to the other. Whether that be bandwidth, disc size, costs of discs, costs of packaging or other things with different disc counts, etc.

--Darin

Well, if he truely wants to be able to continue riding bikes from company A in the future with the kind of support he wants, he may realize that supporting company B might hurt his chances of having something he wants to ride in a couple of years.

--Darin

Or, he runs the risk of not having anything to ride in the future because the public gave up and bought a car.

The Disney group controls lots of non-animations. We are talking about the group that controls, "Pirates of the Caribean", "Sin City", "Pulp Fiction", "Kill Bill #1 and #2", and lots of other things not in the animation realm. And their Japanese side has already shown that they will do something that is difficult to do with HD DVD, release a disc with 2 lossless audio tracks (Japanese and English).
Of course you can feel that the market should decide. If you owned a bunch of content and letting the market decide would decrease your chances of being able to deliver some stuff you want to deliver, you might feel differently.

Consider a professional bike rider who rides a bike from company A and prefers it to another company's bikes. People ask him why he won't support company B and let the public decide which bikes they buy and whether one of the two companies either goes out of business or ends up with very reduced resources. Well, if he truely wants to be able to continue riding bikes from company A in the future with the kind of support he wants, he may realize that supporting company B might hurt his chances of having something he wants to ride in a couple of years.

--Darin

Animation or not, either format can handle the content with quality PQ and AQ.

Consumer choice should be the driving factor here. NO compnay(s) should be the ones to decide for us wht is best. When consumers stop having choices, quality will go down and prices will go up...it's called capitalism and it works. And ANY studio can decide to release on either format....nothing is really stopping them from doing so. So your argument doesn't really work.

Nice article. IMO if Toshiba doesn't have some more studio and hardware support to announce for HD DVD at CES then their days are numbered.
Unfortuently I agree.
More A-list titles from the current HD studios.
Please more neutral studios,and at least a couple of more hardware manufacturers.
I knoe Lite-on is going to be making the drives for the Xbox-360 add-on,and possible for Toshiba too,but more set top players at lower prices,even if from Chinees manufacturers is needed to really help the format,as well as to get j6p interested in HD-DVD.

Consumer choice should be the driving factor here. NO compnay(s) should be the ones to decide for us wht is best. When consumers stop having choices, quality will go down and prices will go up...it's called capitalism and it works.Okay, so if another HD format showed up tomorrow that was 720p on red laser DVDs with players at $99, do you feel that every studio here should release their content on there as well as on these 1080p formats, and let the public decide?
And ANY studio can decide to release on either format....nothing is really stopping them from doing so. So your argument doesn't really work.What? If a studio helps one format to take 90% of the market in a couple of years to less than 10% for the other, then of course they could release for the one with less than 10%, but they are in business and will have put themselves into a position where the main sales are going to be on the format that had specific advantages and disadvantages compared to the other. So, if they sway the war, they will have given things up. I was talking about the real world and what one of these formats dominating in a few years means for these studios as far as what they will basically need to do at that time (since they are in business).

--Darin

Okay, so if another HD format showed up tomorrow that was 720p on red laser DVDs with players at $99, do you feel that every studio here should release their content on there as well as on these 1080p formats, and let the public decide?
What? If a studio helps one format to take 90% of the market in a couple of years to less than 10% for the other, then of course they could release for the one with less than 10%, but they are in business and will have put themselves into a position where the main sales are going to be on the format that had specific advantages and disadvantages compared to the other. So, if they sway the war, they will have given things up. I was talking about the real world and what one of these formats dominating in a few years means for these studios as far as what they will basically need to do at that time (since they are in business).

--Darin

I think you know that argument 1 (720 format) is completely off the mark. You are still assuming that one format is superior in its ability to deliver the same quality PQ and AQ. BD's advantage in size is irrelevent to me ad HD DVD looks better than my BD titles. Consumers aren't SO dense as to know there is a difference between 1080p and 720p. What is more confusing to them is when some idiot at Best Buy tells them that BD is just way better. Right now, it just isn't in terms of quality. IF BD can prove me wrong...awesome! My PS3 is ready and willing! That's why I own both, so I don't have to care who "wins". I will by the content that looks the best on a title by title basis...and BD for the titles that are exclusive to it.

Maybe I am not getting your second point, but to me content providers have nothing to lose by releasing on both formats. More money for them. Even if say Fox and Disney hold out for a year with BD only and then suddenly went neutral...how would that hurt them? Just one more format for them to sell their movies. IF there was still a HD DVD market at that time, they would make a profit. But maybe I am missing your point

Okay, so if another HD format showed up tomorrow that was 720p on red laser DVDs with players at $99, do you feel that every studio here should release their content on there as well as on these 1080p formats, and let the public decide?

What? If a studio helps one format to take 90% of the market in a couple of years to less than 10% for the other, then of course they could release for the one with less than 10%, but they are in business and will have put themselves into a position where the main sales are going to be on the format that had specific advantages and disadvantages compared to the other. So, if they sway the war, they will have given things up. I was talking about the real world and what one of these formats dominating in a few years means for these studios as far as what they will basically need to do at that time (since they are in business).

--Darin


So you advocate that the studios make your choices for you? Where did you stand of the Divx debate years ago? Pretty much the same studios supporting BD were the big supporters there. If they had made that decision for you, what would we have today? The studios don't need to decide what's best for the consumer.

I am not AV expert,,I will be one of those that wait to see which format wins the war before I make a purchase,,however

My experience is into locking up content for future technology,,,,and I guarantee a big player like Disney got a very big check for going exclusively with one format,,,I'm sure they also have an escape clause that allows them to use both formats if it looks like they signed with the loser.

"Content is King",that is the war,,if you get the content, you win the war, no matter if your technology is better or worse,,

Both sides have millions of dollars on the line, the winner will make a lot of money for a long time,,,so they don't care about money now,,just winning the war,,if you win the war the money will take care of itself

Again,,I do not know the details of one format over another,,but the winning format will be the one that locks up the most content,,,and I speak with lots of experience on that

andy

I think you know that argument 1 (720 format) is completely off the mark. You are still assuming that one format is superior in its ability to deliver the same quality PQ and AQ. BD's advantage in size is irrelevent to me ad HD DVD looks better than my BD titles. Consumers aren't SO dense as to know there is a difference between 1080p and 720p. What is more confusing to them is when some idiot at Best Buy tells them that BD is just way better. Right now, it just isn't in terms of quality. IF BD can prove me wrong...awesome! My PS3 is ready and willing! That's why I own both, so I don't have to care who "wins". I will by the content that looks the best on a title by title basis...and BD for the titles that are exclusive to it.So, is that a "No", that you don't think the studios should release on any HD format, but the HD format that you or others choose? The formats do provide different capabilities to the studios along with some of the same capabilities that affect what they can do as well as how long it takes them to do them, but this is a separate issue from whether you believe all studios should release on all formats or not? If you think the studios shouldn't decide which format they release their content on, then who should?
Maybe I am not getting your second point, but to me content providers have nothing to lose by releasing on both formats.You seem like you have a bias toward one side, so I will ask it toward that side and see if it clears up the point for you. Let's take Universal and let's assume that the most important thing to Universal between the formats is disc cost and that HD DVD discs will always be cheaper (even if only by a little). Now if Universal does something that helps Blu-ray to win so that in a couple of years Blu-ray dominates and HD DVD is either gone or a very minor player compared to Blu-ray, will Universal have lost anything in your opinion? You could use the argument that you did above that nothing would be keeping them from releasing on HD DVD, so the argument that they would have given something up by helping Blu-ray win doesn't work. But is that how you feel? That Universal wouldn't be giving up anything if they help Blu-ray win as oppossed to if they can get HD DVD to win?
So you advocate that the studios make your choices for you?Nope. I advocate that the studios decide how to offer stuff that they own and I decide whether to buy it or not. Much like I decide whether to put items I own up on ebay or craigslist and others decide whether to buy it or not. Who do you think should decide what individual studios offer? You? The government? Somebody else? If you think studios should have to release on both formats discussed here, do you also believe they should have to release on a third HD format if one appears?
Where did you stand of the Divx debate years ago? Pretty much the same studios supporting BD were the big supporters there. If they had made that decision for you, what would we have today?I wasn't paying much attention back then, but the studios did decide what to offer and the consumers decided what to buy or not buy. Who do you think should have made the decisions as far as what the studios released?

--Darin

I have been an HD DVD supporter as there price point has been more reasonable, the favorable PQ reviews over BD, and the fact that I own an Xbox 360 and my cost for entry was very little. I have since become an HD DVD supporter and would really like to see them succeed as I am invested with the 360 and will be adding 3 more as clients as soon as I get Vista MCE with Cable Card support, so my money and eggs are defenitely heading into MS's basket. I only own 2 HD DVD's and decided that I'm noty going to buy any until after CES. I am realistic in that if HD DVD doesn't announce additional Studio support then there future isn't bright . BD would basically win once there was a large enough discrepancy between movies that are available only on BD versus movies that are available only on HD DVD. I want the movies and now that I have been renting HD DVD's I don't want to go back to SD DVD and so if HD DVD can't get 1 or 2 of these studios who aren't neutral to go neutral after how well HD DVD has done early on, then that tells me that parties are steadfast in there resolve. So what I really want to do is start building a big catalogue of HD media, and unless things change, as much as I would hate to see it decided like that, BD would be the best option. Toshiba really needs to come out with some big announcements, but nothing is more important then studio support!

What did these numbers look like two months ago?

What does that have to do with this? This article is dated 12/31/2006, and his counter to the 1.5 : 1 sales ratio point was after that.

So, is that a "No", that you don't think the studios should release on any HD format, but the HD format that you or others choose? The formats do provide different capabilities to the studios along with some of the same capabilities that affect what they can do as well as how long it takes them to do them, but this is a separate issue from whether you believe all studios should release on all formats or not? If you think the studios shouldn't decide which format they release their content on, then who should?
You seem like you have a bias toward one side, so I will ask it toward that side and see if it clears up the point for you. Let's take Universal and let's assume that the most important thing to Universal between the formats is disc cost and that HD DVD discs will always be cheaper (even if only by a little). Now if Universal does something that helps Blu-ray to win so that in a couple of years Blu-ray dominates and HD DVD is either gone or a very minor player compared to Blu-ray, will Universal have lost anything in your opinion? You could use the argument that you did above that nothing would be keeping them from releasing on HD DVD, so the argument that they would have given something up by helping Blu-ray win doesn't work. But is that how you feel? That Universal wouldn't be giving up anything if they help Blu-ray win as oppossed to if they can get HD DVD to win?
Nope. I advocate that the studios decide how to offer stuff that they own and I decide whether to buy it or not. Much like I decide whether to put items I own up on ebay or craigslist and others decide whether to buy it or not. Who do you think should decide what individual studios offer? You? The government? Somebody else? If you think studios should have to release on both formats discussed here, do you also believe they should have to release on a third HD format if one appears?
I wasn't paying much attention back then, but the studios did decide what to offer and the consumers decided what to buy or not buy. Who do you think should have made the decisions as far as what the studios released?

--Darin

Right now there are two competetors. So let's just leave it at that for right now. Two is bad enough, a third would make things so complicated that NO format will recieve wide adoption and we all lose.

Saying that, I don;t advocate forcing any company or studio to do anything. I THINK it is in their best interest to release on both. They should not be MADE to do anything. But if they want to make the most profit, both formats give them the best opportunity to do so.

Now as to my bais...I own both, so my bias is based on what I am seeing. PQ and AQ right now go to HD DVD. That's my bias, but I am not worried if they lose. I am only worried about BD winning without giving us a better quality product and NO incentive to do so. Big companies and studios do what is their best interest, not ours. So as I said, the competetion might be a good thing for us all as it will push both camps to deliver a better product.

I look at it like this. When I only owned an XA1, I felt more defensive of HD DVD because of my inverstment in it. But now that I own a ps3 also (and bought it FOR BD use), I feel "liberated" in a sense b/c I no longer care who wins as long as the winner wins for the right reasons...best PQ and AQ...and I think we can ALL agree that is the most important thing!!

Maybe the big companies and studios are the same. They have investments in one or the other. So they have to be defensive of their respective sides. However, this does not apply to studios as much as it does to CE's and those that have investments in the actual hardware. Does the fact the WB has gone neutral mean that they are conceeding defeat for HD DVD....or that they see an opportunity to make more profit? They surely have not abondoned HD DVD, so it seems they see it is best for them to support both sides and make money off both. If a winner emerges, what will they have lost? Same goes for any studio NOT getting some sort of incentive from Sony or other BD member to keep them from supporting both.

The thing is that Fox, Disney, Sony and Lionsgate can keep pushing as they combined easily have many many more titles and especially over the last decade have produced more note worthy titles that have made a lot more money in ticket and DVD sales.

It doesn't matter how many titles they have if they aren't going to sell. Again, a format war doesn't favor Blu-ray if people aren't buying into the format because they want to wait it out.

Whether you like it or not, money drives everything; including movie studios. So unless Fox, Disney, and Lionsgate are getting subsidized by Sony right now, they are looking at $$$$ just like everyone else.


If they want to support BD the nUniversal can only hold on for so long on its own and they will have to fold a lot quicker than the oher companies do.

Except if Universal HD DVD's are selling, then they don't have to "hold on" for anything, because they are seeing success in the format.


On average 90% or so of content is or will be available on BD.

Where is that number coming from?


If movie companies executives jumped ship and changed their minds over the slightest blips on the radar (and thats what HD and BD are right now) then they wouldnt be good at their jobs. None of them are gonna overeact to anything just yet. Why would they?

Yet you want Universal to "switch and be done with it".


I believe that according to tsd2005 the end of the year numbers from videoscan will show that at the end of the year HD DVD was running at about a 1.5:1 advantage for software sales, although maybe that was a longer period and not the run rate right at the end. Is that what you consider one selling and the other not selling?

BDA and HD DVD are not studios. I am speaking strictly stuiod by studio. If Fox is wondering, for example, why their big titles aren't selling but look over at Universal and see they their HD DVD's are; wouldn't that be a signal to them they should rethink their exclusivity?

This is assuming this is true. I am not suggesting it is.


Based on box office numbers it looks like Universal is going to have to dig deeper into their choices (and go with more older hits) if they really want to counter the other side.

Box office numbers I don't go by anymore. Thanks to the magic of outrageous ticket prices, my wife and I don't even go to the movies ourselves anymore. Why when for the same price as the night out, I can own the movie and watch it from the comfort of our own home on a 65" screen? So we buy movies instead of go out. I believe more people than not are going this route unless it's a "must see in theaters" movie.

That said, I agree that they should dip into the back catalog more as well as the day and date releases for new movies. But that is how they counter. Announcing Evan Almighty is great, but announcing The Blues Brothers would be wonderful. I'd love to see older films like Wierd Science, The Dark Crystal, Scarface, An American Tail (for my son), Dante's Peak, and Gladiator. And that's leaving out movies that might be subject to issues like co-produced movies from Amblin and Dreamworks.


Taking the position for a second that HD DVD would win in the above scenario, would you agree that the war would be over quicker if Disney switched sides (abandoned Blu-ray) than if they went neutral?

Not necessarily. It still needs to be the choice of the consumer as to who lives and dies. I've long said here that Universal should also be neutral. They should all be neutral and let us decide what format we want.

My opinion is that because of cost, Sony and BDA don't want that to happen.


I doubt Disney will go neutral unless they are willing to give up the bandwidth and 50GB of space of Blu-ray, if they understand that going neutral would be more likely to bring about a scenario where those capabilities are not really available to them in the future (at least not for the majority of discs they will sell with high definition encodings).

Why would this be? Warner and Paramount don't seem to have this problem.


Okay, so if another HD format showed up tomorrow that was 720p on red laser DVDs with players at $99, do you feel that every studio here should release their content on there as well as on these 1080p formats, and let the public decide?

If people began snapping up the players and buying movies at a rate not seen on HD DVD and Blu-ray, you better believe studios would jump on board that like you wouldn't believe.

Money drives everything. Why do you think this new rash of upconverting DVD players all of a sudden have hit the market?

What reality? The reality that the handful of HD fans on here are louder than the handful of BD fans on here? If movie companies executives jumped ship and changed their minds over the slightest blips on the radar (and thats what HD and BD are right now) then they wouldnt be good at their jobs. None of them are gonna overeact to anything just yet. Why would they?

(emphasis added)

Now wait a sec... earlier in this very thread you were lamenting in anguish why Universal couldn't just switch and end the format war in favor of BD? Got a bit of a double standard going? If a pro-HD-DVD studio were to switch, that would be just dandy for BR, but if a pro-BR studio were to switch, that would be "overreacting"?

Bottom line: It's always easier to ask the opposition to change than to ask the same of your own side... that would be unfathomable. ;)

(emphasis added)

Now wait a sec... earlier in this very thread you were lamenting in anguish why Universal couldn't just switch and end the format war in favor of BD? Got a bit of a double standard going? If a pro-HD-DVD studio were to switch, that would be just dandy for BR, but if a pro-BR studio were to switch, that would be "overreacting"?

Bottom line: It's always easier to ask the opposition to change than to ask the same of your own side... that would be unfathomable. ;)

And let's not forget, Studios are playing for profits not pride and bragging rights. Arguably the BD and HD DVD organizations are more interested in "owning" the winning format. Yeah I know the studios belong to these groups too, but they make movies and at the end of the day are looking for the most profitable distribution medium for them.

WHY? WHY? WHY? I can not understand the logic of prolonging a war and having 2 formats. I dont want 2 formats. Nobody wants 2 formats. That is just pointless. I dont want a mix of red and blue cases on my shelves. HD has the lead now but its not a big lead and its still way to early. High Def formats havent even occupied 1% of SD players. So if the companies that make on average of about 50% of film box office grosses want one format, and then about 40% want both formats and the lonely 10% or so want to be the only one supporting a format then why drag it out.

There would be no war. It would be over. It's like buying a plasma instead of an LCD, or an Itune instead of a CD. It's just another format.

I think both have proved that they can both survive. So if Studios go neutral BD isn't going to "lose."

As for content, Warners and Paramount don't have any problem releasing on both.

Maybe we should all just live in a world where everyone buys a white honda civic, everyone has a LCD tv, and all speakers are made by Bose.

There is nothing wrong iwth giving people a choice.

Maybe we should all just live in a world where everyone buys a white honda civic, everyone has a LCD tv, and all speakers are made by Bose... :eek: , :eek: and more :eek:

What does that have to do with this? This article is dated 12/31/2006, and his counter to the 1.5 : 1 sales ratio point was after that.


The 1.5:1 is just for the month of December. Overall sales is closer to 4:1. Again that would be from the early lead. However the monthly loss is a big deal, BDA said they'd win December.

There would be no war. It would be over. It's like buying a plasma instead of an LCD, or an Itune instead of a CD. It's just another format.

I think both have proved that they can both survive. So if Studios go neutral BD isn't going to "lose."

As for content, Warners and Paramount don't have any problem releasing on both.

Maybe we should all just live in a world where everyone buys a white honda civic, everyone has a LCD tv, and all speakers are made by Bose.

There is nothing wrong iwth giving people a choice.

Youre going a little over board. Im not talking about 2 different items. Im talking about High Definition discs. They are the same thing with slightly different specs. One comes in a red case and one comes in blue. If most already favor the blue and the technical specs are better then why doesnt the one red company work together with all of the blues and really maximize the 50gb potential and stop screwing around with the consumers. I just dont want a war and I dont want 2 High Def formats. Regardless of mine and your feelings, more studios prefer BD as of right now and if everyone worked together it would save us all money from having to rebuy once one format or the other wins.

Youre going a little over board. Im not talking about 2 different items. Im talking about High Definition discs. They are the same thing with slightly different specs. One comes in a red case and one comes in blue. If most already favor the blue and the technical specs are better then why doesnt the one red company work together with all of the blues and really maximize the 50gb potential and stop screwing around with the consumers. I just dont want a war and I dont want 2 High Def formats. Regardless of mine and your feelings, more studios prefer BD as of right now and if everyone worked together it would save us all money from having to rebuy once one format or the other wins.


You're right. My comparisons of them to LCD vs DLP vs PLASMA, etc. is just silly. Those TVs don't offer the same resolution or near the same specs.

I'm sorry. You're right. I don't know what I was thinking about there being a logical way for 2 formats to survive without causing any trouble.

I agree. The studios should just go with who the consumers want, screw BD. They should all go exclusive to HD-DVD, the consumer's choice.

You're right. My comparisons of them to LCD vs DLP vs PLASMA, etc. is just silly. Those TVs don't offer the same resolution or near the same specs.

I'm sorry. You're right. I don't know what I was thinking about there being a logical way for 2 formats to survive without causing any trouble.

I agree. The studios should just go with who the consumers want, screw BD. They should all go exclusive to HD-DVD, the consumer's choice.

I thought technically speaking the Blu ray disc has better features and storage capacity. If thats true, why doesnt everyone use that?

I thought technically speaking the Blu ray disc has better features and storage capacity. If thats true, why doesnt everyone use that?

Well it's more expensive for one.

For another HD-DVD has more standard features than BD. BD doesn't require Studios to give you as much.

Sure it has 50GB vs 30GB. Big deal. Nothing has shown that more space is really needed.

The Bandwidth issue has also yet to prove anything. So far HD-DVD has the best looking movies and best sounding movies.

Plus more consumers have bought standalone players in HD-DVD than BD.

Well it's more expensive for one.

For another HD-DVD has more standard features than BD. BD doesn't require Studios to give you as much.

Sure it has 50GB vs 30GB. Big deal. Nothing has shown that more space is really needed.

The Bandwidth issue has also yet to prove anything. So far HD-DVD has the best looking movies and best sounding movies.

Plus more consumers have bought standalone players in HD-DVD than BD.

Well they might have more standalone players now, but not by much, and they had quite a big head start. I bought my Toshiba back in April and never even knew what Blu Ray was until July and didnt get my Samsung until October.

You're right. My comparisons of them to LCD vs DLP vs PLASMA, etc. is just silly. Those TVs don't offer the same resolution or near the same specs.

I'm sorry. You're right. I don't know what I was thinking about there being a logical way for 2 formats to survive without causing any trouble.

I agree. The studios should just go with who the consumers want, screw BD. They should all go exclusive to HD-DVD, the consumer's choice.

I suspect that the studios are interpreting that the consumer doesn't want either one very much. The differences in support are miniscule compared to the clear indifference to both in the last year.

Last April, when HD DVD was introduced, most consumers ignored it. Most mainstream reviewers said "wait". HD DVD had two months in the marketplace before Blu-ray was even introduced. Then, the Samsung player was twice as expensive, and the Sony launch titles damaged Blu-ray very severely.

HD DVD basically had five months in the marketplace as the unchallenged king of hd quality, until Warners and Sony started releasing good BD disks, and more Blu-ray players were introduced.

What happened during these five months? Did studios and CE companies flock to support HD DVD? Was there a huge excitement about HD DVD?

Within the hothouse incubator of the AVSForum, it seems like everything is hd, and HD DVD is winning big. It is not that way outside.

To this day, I do not personally know a single person who has bought HD DVD. I only know one person who has bought Blu-ray: me, a Samsung and a PS3. I am demoing to some success but most of my HT-owing friends are still saying they will wait. I know a lot of people who want PS3's, probably mainly for gaming, but most are waiting until they are more accessible and more games are available.

I have read dozens of mainstream articles about the format war in the last month. The consensus: "none of the above" is winning, wait for the format war to end.

I have read your many posts, especially about how poorly Blu-ray is doing in relation to HD DVD. You claim that December disk sales are 1.5:1. For the sake of the arugment, I believe you. But this in no way suggests that HD DVD is doing well. To say that the consumers "want" HD DVD is a gross exaggeration of the situation.

You suggest that the studios should all just go HD DVD-exclusive and be done with this. Perhaps they will do something like that.

What happened during these five months? Did studios and CE companies flock to support HD DVD? Was there a huge excitement about HD DVD?

Yes.

I have read your many posts, especially about how poorly Blu-ray is doing in relation to HD DVD. You claim that December disk sales are 1.5:1. For the sake of the arugment, I believe you. But this in no way suggests that HD DVD is doing well.

If you consider there could be as much as 4x the number of BD players then the smaller format whick sells 1.5x the number of movies looks like it is doing well to me.

I suspect that the studios are interpreting that the consumer doesn't want either one very much. The differences in support are miniscule compared to the clear indifference to both in the last year.

Last April, when HD DVD was introduced, most consumers ignored it. Most mainstream reviewers said "wait". HD DVD had two months in the marketplace before Blu-ray was even introduced. Then, the Samsung player was twice as expensive, and the Sony launch titles damaged Blu-ray very severely.

HD DVD basically had five months in the marketplace as the unchallenged king of hd quality, until Warners and Sony started releasing good BD disks, and more Blu-ray players were introduced.

What happened during these five months? Did studios and CE companies flock to support HD DVD? Was there a huge excitement about HD DVD?

Within the hothouse incubator of the AVSForum, it seems like everything is hd, and HD DVD is winning big. It is not that way outside.

To this day, I do not personally know a single person who has bought HD DVD. I only know one person who has bought Blu-ray: me, a Samsung and a PS3. I am demoing to some success but most of my HT-owing friends are still saying they will wait. I know a lot of people who want PS3's, probably mainly for gaming, but most are waiting until they are more accessible and more games are available.

I have read dozens of mainstream articles about the format war in the last month. The consensus: "none of the above" is winning, wait for the format war to end.

I have read your many posts, especially about how poorly Blu-ray is doing in relation to HD DVD. You claim that December disk sales are 1.5:1. For the sake of the arugment, I believe you. But this in no way suggests that HD DVD is doing well. To say that the consumers "want" HD DVD is a gross exaggeration of the situation.

You suggest that the studios should all just go HD DVD-exclusive and be done with this. Perhaps they will do something like that.

For one standalone players total sales are in 6 figures for HD-DVD, and aren't close in BD.

Secondly, HD is a big deal to the consumer. They are just uneducated about the products, confused, and unwilling to gamble on a product.

If we had a neutral field, consumers would be able to make a purchase without fear.

For one standalone players total sales are in 6 figures for HD-DVD, and aren't close in BD.

Secondly, HD is a big deal to the consumer. They are just uneducated about the products, confused, and unwilling to gamble on a product.

If we had a neutral field, consumers would be able to make a purchase without fear.


Oooh, 6 figures. I guess they should just stop making standard DVDs and shut down the whole Blu Ray thing now.

Oooh, 6 figures. I guess they should just stop making standard DVDs and shut down the whole Blu Ray thing now.

3 Toshiba players and a RCA player. Outselling Panasonic, Samsung, Sony, Pioneer, Phillips....

Six figures isn't a big deal. It just says how lame the BD group is. Without PS3 it would be DEAD in comparison.

If you consider there could be as much as 4x the number of BD players then the smaller format whick sells 1.5x the number of movies looks like it is doing well to me.The PS3 isn't going to have 100% of owners using it for BDs and it isn't going to be 0% either. Even 20% for the next couple of years would be very significant, but counting 20% of PS3s right now (which I believe would probably be high today) looks like it would still leave them behind in the number of players in use. I believe that the percentage is likely to be lower today than later on after they have marketed some top movies (like "Casino Royale") to this base.
For one standalone players total sales are in 6 figures for HD-DVD, and aren't close in BD.If the standalone players are as far ahead for HD DVD as this indicates and they were able to sell close to 200,000 XBOX360 add-ons on top of that, then it would seem that the PS3s have had a pretty good impact for the Blu-ray camp for your statement about a 1.5:1 software sales lead for HD DVD for December to be true. Obviously, there are those who will overstate how much of an impact something will have, but I didn't believe that they would be enough to put Blu-ray in the lead for software sales for the month, given the number of PS3s that Sony was likely to get out there. At this point I think it is important for the HD DVD side to get enough players manufactured so that people who want them won't have any trouble finding them in stores.
Six figures isn't a big deal. It just says how lame the BD group is. Without PS3 it would be DEAD in comparison.Without the threat of the PS3 it is unlikely that Toshiba would have priced the HD-A1 at $499 and without the PS3 the Blu-ray camp might have had to sell a player at a very reduced price like that. It looks like both sides would have some problems without the game systems. From the numbers you stated and what I've seen, if the numbers for the HD DVD add-on for the XBOX360 weren't counted then Blu-ray would have likely been in the lead for software sales.

--Darin

3 Toshiba players and a RCA player. Outselling Panasonic, Samsung, Sony, Pioneer, Phillips....

Six figures isn't a big deal. It just says how lame the BD group is. Without PS3 it would be DEAD in comparison.

You are right, it isnt a big deal. We have a long way to go and HD had a 5 month head start and the gap is closing and almost closed. It is only the beginning, neither is going away anytime soon and BD at this time has more and bigger guns to work with. Unless things change Jan 7th then that is the way it is.

You are right, it isnt a big deal. We have a long way to go and HD had a 5 month head start and the gap is closing and almost closed. It is only the beginning, neither is going away anytime soon and BD at this time has more and bigger guns to work with. Unless things change Jan 7th then that is the way it is.

When did 2 months turn into 5 months?

April, May... the Samsung came out in JUNE.

That isn't 5 months.

We have a long way to go and HD had a 5 month head start and the gap is closing and almost closed.

What gap are we talking about?

For one standalone players total sales are in 6 figures for HD-DVD, and aren't close in BD.

Secondly, HD is a big deal to the consumer. They are just uneducated about the products, confused, and unwilling to gamble on a product.

If we had a neutral field, consumers would be able to make a purchase without fear.

By comparison, DVD had 315,000 players in the first year (1997, 9 months). Source: CEA via thedigitalbits.com. This was with support from only about half of the studios (little Disney, no Paramount or Fox). 1998 was over 1M, 1999 was over 4M. These numbers did not include computers or PS2's (when they became available).

Despite spotty studio support and the threat of Divx, reviewers were enthusiastic. I remember having a player preordered before launch, and everyone I knew was in the game within months. I did a lot of A/B'ing LD against DVD for people who immediately bought a DVD player.

Hidef disks and players are innately a harder sell today because the quality differences are not so obvious to many people; but the format war really tanks it.

I don't think that universal studio support of both formats (which I have always supported) would make that much difference in the current context. It would help, but customers would still know that if they picked the "wrong" format, it would soon be orphaned. Beta, LD, and VHS have all died before people's eyes, so they know that the chain doesn't want to support multiple formats.

People also understand that a segmented marketplace is economically inefficient in terms of providing the benefits of competition.

When did 2 months turn into 5 months?

April, May... the Samsung came out in JUNE.

That isn't 5 months.

You are right, the Samsung came out just a little over 2 months after the Toshiba players.

In many respects, however, the gap was closer to 4 or 5 months because of the low-quality Sony and Lionsgate titles. People quite properly described Blu-ray as having lower PQ during this period because, from all examples that Sony could offer, it did. Many reviewers sat down with both systems last summer and made a very telling comparison.

I think tsd is right on this one.

It is likely that more studios are going to become neutral.

Declaring for Blu-ray instead of HD DVD was the least risky and highest potential for profit previously. It made some sense for studios to choose that path.

But the situation has now changed. The performance and sales of HD DVD versus the PS3 and Blu-ray sales performance has altered the risk/benefit analysis for studio decision makers. Supporting Blu-ray is no longer the least risky more profit path.

It is now less risky for them to support both formats, as it is now clear that HD DVD will survive and people are starting to make money off of HD DVD sales and some people will stay HD DVD loyal.

The studios are in business to make money. When it becomes more risky to stay Blu-ray exclusive than to become neutral, more and more pressure will be on those studio executives to release on both formats.

It honestly surprises me how so many people here can talk with so much authority about who is going to do what, when, and why. This isn't a simple game of tic tac toe where you can apply some half-baked logic to deduce what the outcome will be months from now. Really, some of the 'reasoning' I have read in here border on being laughably childish and tantrum like (guess which posts I mean). Look, most people have the deductive capacity to look at a given input/situation and predict a reasonable output/outcome. That doesn't mean it is always going to be right - the real world is a somewhat more complex place - *gasp* people actually react to each other and take actions without the other knowing what they are. Things happen, people act smart, people act dumb, whatever it is, one thing is for sure, more often than not surprising things occur (isn't that why we have news?). There is a reason why there is a whole branch of study dedicated to situations/games like this, and trust me even experts in game theory would not dare assert themselves as strongly as some of you have of what is going to happen.

If you want to make predictions, fine go ahead, but a bunch of you need to stop being armchair generals and farsighted seers should start tempering your posts with a little less hostility and arrogance and a little more humility. If you don't agree and want to prove me wrong and really think you are that clairvoyant, stop wasting your time on this forum and go make a fortune in the stock market, after all if you can predict with utter infallibility the exact moves that are going to be made by the many parties involved in this 'war', then go buy some stock or better yet invest in the next Google.

Man....I have never looked at either of these two formats with such ferocity as people here. I bought the A1 when it came out because it was "cheap" and the disks looked great. I always planned on getting into BD but the Sammy was getting such bad reviews as were the early disks. I took a wait and see approach and it turned out BD got better and the PS3 came along.

I don't waffle about what disks to buy either. If I see NL Christmas Vacation on HD DVD...I pick it up. If I happen to pass by Training Day on BD, I'll pick that up or vice versa. HD is HD to me and I will take it anyway I can get it. My new A2 is never going to disappear and it upscales great so its not a wasted investment. My PS3 will always hold value so I am happy I have that.

Some of you are sacrificing dignity for unabashed loyalty to BD or HD DVD. If you have one, be proud and thankful for what you have.

If at ces toshiba announces a $300 or less player even with gimped audio its game over for BDA .

At $300 you start to enter the mass market price. Players will start to move alot faster and more and more people will pick it up . Studios will have no choice but to start supporting it and thats that .

Untill ces happens I will continue to support hd dvd and buy more movies . Like i did just before this post (hulk and willy wanka )

I bought the hd-dvd add on for my 360 and I know own i would say 13 movies .

Serinity , National lampoons x mass vacation , Batman begins , harry potter , , casablanca , the mummy , smallville season 5 , superman returns , Van hesling , consintine , Army of darkness and american wear wolf in paris . So 12 + Hulk and willy on the way . Thats off the top of my head. I may have another movie that i'm forgetting .

I will continue to buy movies i enjoy each month. If Disney , fox and other studios refuse to support hd-dvd its simply more movies i buy from Universal and warners and whoever else releases on hd-dvd .

If at ces toshiba announces a $300 or less player even with gimped audio its game over for BDA .

At $300 you start to enter the mass market price. Players will start to move alot faster and more and more people will pick it up . Studios will have no choice but to start supporting it and thats that .


Even if a $300.00 player is announced at CES it will still be hard to get it out to the masses with the Blue Laser Diode situation.

sony is producing hundreds of thousands of bluray players a month now , why can't toshiba do the same ?

sony is producing hundreds of thousands of bluray players a month now , why can't toshiba do the same ?

Maybe because Sony makes its own blue diodes and Toshiba doesn't?

This all goes round and round. But I think most of the important cards are already on the table now and if we just watch the disc sales figures for the next few months the eventual winner should be obvious. If the advent of the PS3 and at least limited supply of DL discs is enough to give BD an ongoing sales advantage then they will likely win the war, otherwise they probably won't.

- Tom (still betting on downloads and holo cards)

I know someone at a Studio that is currently exclusive to BD. He is rather high up in the system. He and others are starting to compare the war to SACD/DVD-A where nobody won because consumers:

1. Weren't educated on it, and had no idea what it meant.

2. It was a format war with record labels picking sides, and nobody winning. Consumers didn't want to invest in something not knowing if their favorite music would all make it on the format.

Ofcourse the number 2 situation only happened for those consumers who were able to even know what the two were.

HD-DVD and BD are right now fighting a losing battle. The initial marketing group reports had Studios estimating MUCH larger sales. The reason is simple:

CONSUMERS WANT HIGH DEFINITION CONTENT

The consumers are now buying HDTV sets. They need content. HDMI (the one cable solution) is a SMART consumer decision, it is much easier to deal with than Component, etc. Simplifying things into one cable is brilliant.

However consumers are still confused MASSIVELY about 480p, 720p, 1080i, 1080p, etc. Not to mention the new audio codecs!

The Studios know that market reports show that the consumer wants a simple HD solution. They know they want that content. They also know that sales are MUCH LOWER than estimated. This can be blamed on hardware issues, but it's also primarily the fault of the FORMAT WAR.

Attachment rates are incredibly low on the PS3. HD-DVD is winning the software sales war. However recent reports state that the majority of HDTV buyers said they wanted to wait before buying into the HD Content Players. They were either confused or wanted to see "who would win."

Right now there is a winner or loser outlook. This exec I know is thinking this could end up more like LPs and Cassettes if Studios level the playing field. Neutrality is a good thing to promote the sales of either format.

If you make the consumer worry less, they are more likely to buy. The only way that will happen now is:

1. One side wins.

or

2. Studio Neutrality.

Number 1 can't happen anytime soon, and I believe PS3 sales, and the success of HD-DVD have shown that both will be around for awhile.

That leaves number 2 as the most likely solution to getting the consumer to buy into either format. That is why LGF and Disney will be the first to go neutral and FOX will not be far behind. MGM has to worry about Sony owning 20% and not pissing them off, but they will be making that same decision as well.

Then it will come down to Sony and Universal, and I think when/if that time comes both will make the switch to Neutrality at the same time.

Thus allowing consumers to make the decision they want. For Sony, their brand image should be enough. They've been winning the TV battle for ages...

There is room for two HD Content formats to thrive. It can only happen with studio neutrality. Until then sales for both will remain lower than they potentially could be.

Plus you still have to educate the masses.
From your mouth to God's ear.... :)

Regardless of mine and your feelings, more studios prefer BD as of right now and if everyone worked together it would save us all money from having to rebuy once one format or the other wins.


Those studios prefer BD because of promises that they were made that haven't panned out.

From your mouth to God's ear.... :) I think tsd is hitting the nail on the head here.

It is less risky and more profitable now to support both formats. That may not have been the case before, but with HD DVD's success and PS3 and Blu-ray stumbles, the situation has changed.

What do you think the studios are going to do? Less risk and more profit is pretty enticing.

Here's a question I've been having lately: What was the maximum base for Divx or DVHS or Laserdisc?

One problem I have with all studios being format neutral (and therefore you can buy either) is retail shelf safe. Imagine now that you had to carry both of every DVD because you don't know what player people have. That's the only problem I see.

Personally, I think both will survive and we'll start to see combo players in the next 1-2 years. At that point, the "war" will be over. In fact, I think the ultimate solution (between the two groups) is to make combo players and end up with two disc types, but similar packaging. It's the best of both worlds: cheaper to make HD-DVDs for some movies and then when you have special editions or 4 hour movies you could make BD50. Both groups get patient fees, both formats live, etc etc etc. I know that won't happen, but that seems like the best compromise at this point.

Chris

I think tsd is hitting the nail on the head here.

It is less risky and more profitable now to support both formats. That may not have been the case before, but with HD DVD's success and PS3 and Blu-ray stumbles, the situation has changed.

What do you think the studios are going to do? Less risk and more profit is pretty enticing.

To tell you the truth, tsd's posts are really the only ones on this board that hold weight with me any more. Everyone else comes across as a lunatic fanboy.

Spin???

It is less risky and more profitable now to support both formats. That may not have been the case before, but with HD DVD's success and PS3 and Blu-ray stumbles, the situation has changed.

What do you think the studios are going to do? Less risk and more profit is pretty enticing.

It is less risky and profitable right now to just support standard DVD and ignore the new formats.

It is less risky and more profitable now to support both formats. That may not have been the case before, but with HD DVD's success and PS3 and Blu-ray stumbles, the situation has changed.

What do you think the studios are going to do? Less risk and more profit is pretty enticing.


I offer another perspective; If the studios support both formats, the war will protract beyond the profitability stage and revert to a downloads scenario; perhaps without HD at all and certainly not of the quality capable from Disk. IMO 2007 had better determine to one format or the window will be lost...

ken

Downloads aren't practicle for DVD let alone HD-DVD, I think we'll go solid state before film downloads become popular.

Based on box office numbers it looks like Universal is going to have to dig deeper into their choices (and go with more older hits) if they really want to counter the other side. Of their top 5 box office titles from the last 4 years, they have already released 14 out of 20. For 2005 and 2006 they have already released 8 out of 10. All they have left of their top 5 box office titles from each of the years to release are:

2003: Bruce Almighty, American Wedding
2004: Meet the Fockers, Along Came Polly
2005: The 40-Year-Old Virgin
2006: Inside Man

While it is impressive that Universal would release 80% of their 5 top box office draws of the last 2 years in the first 9 months of the format, it makes it more difficult for them to continue at that pace.

I definitely see your point, but I really don't think that Universal has all that much to worry about. The list above will exhaust their "huge" hits from the past 3 years, but...

They still have lots of successful recent indies such as Lost in Translation, Pride and Prejudice, Eternal Sunshine, and The Constant Gardener.

They have older blockbusters like E.T., Jaws, Jurassic Park, Airport, American Graffiti, Back to the Future, Smokey and the Bandit.

2006/2007 releases like Children of Men (on just about every critic top-10 list this year), Good Shepherd, Alpha Dog, Evan Almighty, The Kingdom, Smokin Aces, Breach, etc.

And lots of other recent-ish titles like American Pie, 8 Mile, Beautiful Mind, Erin Brockovich, Nutty Professor, Bring it On, Notting Hill, etc.

Not to mention the 'classic' titles in the catalog (To Kill a Mockingbird, Double Indemnity, Universal Monsters) and TV titles (Battlestar Galactica, Law&Order, Monk, The Office)

It may seem like Universal has blown its load early on, but there is still *plenty* of popular stuff to come out in 2007 and beyond. Plus there are always things like Conan, etc. to throw into the mix to surprise people. :)

What happens if there is a $400 BD player, as rumored?

Nothing. So long as it's the more expensive option, it's at the disadvantage when:

$300 HD-DVD vs. $400 BD? With the BD studio support the $100 isn't that bad, given how 'high end' it's still seen as.

There is also a 'value' issue - if there is a $300 HD-DVD player and 5 $1000 BD players, people may stop seeing them as equivalent and start seeing HD-DVD as a cheap pre-cursor to "full HD with Blu-ray", as there can't possibly be competitive technologies with such divergent price points.


Here's the flaw in your arguement. To the joe consumer, putting these two formats up next to each other at BEST nets the same result in PQ and AQ, depending on the movies shown. So the consumer could have the opposite effect and wonder why BD costs more and doesn't look any better.

Again, disadvantage to Blu-ray if the players cost more.


I'm getting sick of getting looked at like an alien when I ask for HD-DVD or Blu-ray discs at the local Best Buy... or having to wait an extra week to get a a Blu-ray version of a film at the same Best Buy, even though the studio released both the DVD and Blu-ray (or HD-DVD) discs day-and-date.

I would take that up with Best Buy and not the BDA or Toshiba. Best Buy's lack of knowledgeable sales people is not their fault. Why are you continuing to ask anyway, you seem to have your mind made up?


I'm reasonably sure that Fox/Disney/et all were naive if they thought that anything would be decided by now. HD-DVDs 'success' so far is really only 'success' compared to Blu-ray. As a product, it's a giant flop on it's own. Few players, few discs.

Wait, and Blu-ray isn't? Buy your own admission, Blu-ray should be a "giant flop" too.


As much as people aren't going to like the idea, there will probably be at least 10,000,000 PS3's installed by then (count on it - the PS3 -will- sell in Japan where the XBox is not, Blue Dragon bundles aside). Maybe 10% will buy movies - that's still 1M BD buying users and is an awfully good installed base.

Let me make sure I understand this. Sony couldn't even get 1 million out the door before January 1st in the US. You honestly think that Sony will have 10 million in homes by January of 2008?

This one I have to see for myself.


I offer another perspective; If the studios support both formats, the war will protract beyond the profitability stage and revert to a downloads scenario; perhaps without HD at all and certainly not of the quality capable from Disk. IMO 2007 had better determine to one format or the window will be lost...


But not if DRM is in place. As much as I love downloading stuff from Xbox Live Marketplace, it's highly unlikely it will ever replace a physical medium for watching movies.

Downloads aren't practicle for DVD let alone HD-DVD, I think we'll go solid state before film downloads become popular.

I bet about as many copies of Mission Impossible III (HD) were distributed over the Xbox Live network as it was on either optical disc format. It's 720P, but it's inexpensive, and convenient to download.

My understanding is that XBL downloads are going pretty good. I myself have watched several TV programs, Ultimate Fighting (in HD), as well as movies. XBL works well for movie distribution because all these people already have a broadband connection and HD to store it on, and most are hooked up to a HDTV. Also, paying is convenient, because you normally have some extra MS points sitting around. The HD titles are only $1 more to rent than the non-HD versions, I believe.

I think tsd is hitting the nail on the head here.

It is less risky and more profitable now to support both formats. That may not have been the case before, but with HD DVD's success and PS3 and Blu-ray stumbles, the situation has changed.Do you feel the same way about Universal (that they should go neutral)? And are you talking about short term profit or overall profit? One question is whether a movie released early makes as much money as a movie that is held back until there are more players. If the latter, then waiting can be more profitable for an individual movie and/or studio.

We'll see if this claim from him comes true by the end of next week:
LGF will make their switch at CES...

Do you believe that Fox all of a sudden will stop caring as much about BD+ because HD DVD sold maybe 300,000 players in 2006 and will turn to possibly helping HD DVD win (by going neutral) soon?

Also, do you agree with tsd2005 that the HD-A1 was never subsidized?

--Darin

Do you believe that Fox all of a sudden will stop caring as much about BD+ because HD DVD sold maybe 300,000 players in 2006 and will turn to possibly helping HD DVD win (by going neutral) soon?

Yes.

I didn't agree with anything else you said either, but this one is pretty brutal.

MGM is owned by Sony. Never, ever, I repeat never, going formal neutral.

Fox hates Toshiba. They're still bitter over Toshiba 'promising' them that CSS couldn't be broken in the days when Fox was a DivX studio and was lured to DVD. Fox will be the last studio to go neutral, if they ever do.

This is a big problem with this site. Tons of misinformation passed along as the Gospel.

1. SONY DOES NOT OWN MGM. They weren't able to buy MGM, and had to settle in purchasing close to 20% of MGM. They don't have controlling power, and they already had their board vote on whether or not to support HD-DVD. Guess what? They voted that they could support HD-DVD when/if that time ever rears its head. SONY has put pressure on them to be exclusive, so they were buying the same BS Sony gave everyone else: The PS3 guarantees a winner by Christmas. Disney jumping will make MGM want to jump. MGM needs their catalog titles to sell.

2. FOX DOESN'T HATE TOSHIBA. This is just a stupid claim. It has nothing to do with reality and is just bad gossip. FOX joined up with DIVX and bought the whole "we know what you watch and the disc dies in 48 hours!" pitch. They loved the idea of people having to buy a movie multiple times. By the time FOX jumped aboard DVD there were over 1 million players sold, and DIVX was already dead. They were the last to jump. DIVX by the way never approached 100,000 units....

FOX originally was neutral and planning on supporting both formats. Sony bought them with promises and paying for BD50 costs among other things. FOX's Peter Staddon is a very very gung ho guy. He will act totally like he is backing your party if he is in it. So he appears VERY PRO-BD. Reality is that FOX is looking at sales, and NEWSCORP their parent company is worried about brand image. FOX took a big hit with the DIVX disaster and had to act like DVD was the end all when they joined up. They supported DTS greatly which was a big boost for their image.

I thought that FOX actually has the distribution rights for the MGM titles.

I thought that FOX actually has the distribution rights for the MGM titles.

Another situation where things have been misunderstood.

Sony bought 20% of MGM, and it was thought that Sony would get to distribute the MGM catalog, but MGM ended up making a distribution deal with FOX. "rights," is a term that doesn't exactly fit. FOX distributes the home video releases, but MGM makes the decisions. So while FOX is distributing their titles, they don't own them. MGM still makes the decisions, FOX carries them out.

Do you feel the same way about Universal (that they should go neutral)? And are you talking about short term profit or overall profit? One question is whether a movie released early makes as much money as a movie that is held back until there are more players. If the latter, then waiting can be more profitable for an individual movie and/or studio.

We'll see if this claim from him comes true by the end of next week:


Do you believe that Fox all of a sudden will stop caring as much about BD+ because HD DVD sold maybe 300,000 players in 2006 and will turn to possibly helping HD DVD win (by going neutral) soon?

Also, do you agree with tsd2005 that the HD-A1 was never subsidized?

--Darin

If FOX cares so much about BD+, as you claim. Why are they releasing titles without it. There is no date when BD+ will even be available to any studio. So your claims have no merit at all.

FOX is the the business of making money, period, They will go where that is, sooner rather than later, I believe. Better to do it now rather than later.

Also, I don't believe the A1 was subsidised either. Sold at cost, yes. But who cares, their making a profit on the A2 and the XA2 sounds like it will mop the floor with any HD player on the market. It actually has what it's supposed to have in the machine. Imagine that! Well. I guess if you support BR you really can't, can you.:)

My apologies. If you spend enough time on AVS you assume that people all people are just talking out of their ass.

Not knowing the politics of MGM, my assumption was that Sony's steak in them locked them down as a Blu-ray studio. Indeed, you are the first person with any specific information that suggests this isn't the case so I'll need to look into this further.

As for Fox, the 'Fox hates Toshiba' story is a fairly often repeated one. I've heard it so many places that it is hard to believe it's purely fictitious. I certainly didn't invent it, as I don't have the imagination for such intrigue to begin with. As you say, Fox was the last studio to jump from DIVX, and when DIVX died I remember Fox being quite begrudged to depart.

If Fox and MGM are looking at sales, as you say, then what they're seeing is that Blu-ray is catching up and is trending ahead. Why would this make them think about changing courses, as you suggest? It just doesn't add up.

I could only believe you if what was happening 6 months ago was how things still were - one BD player that wasn't very good and one half priced HD-DVD player. But even then, the people buying HD-DVD were largely the same group who is buying it now - vocal early adopters.

Of course, on top of all of this is my faith in the American corporations ability to only change course when it becomes critical to do so. 6 months into a format war that one side really hasn't started aggressively fighting doesn't seem like the right timeframe for a multi-million dollar organization to just up and decide to abandon their plans.

12 months from -now- i could see it... but this soon? Forget movies, studios, and technology - from a business point of view none of these companies could possibly have ever thought the 'war' would have even really begun by now....

Why are you so convinced that FOX doesn't already have a plan to support HD DVD. Do you really think they would not cover their ass this time and be prepared if BR was to fail or lag far behind. Please, they are not that stupid nor are any of the other studios.

You can bet they all have contingency plans in place for just that purpose. Forget the public hype for a minute and understand why corporation are in business!

If Fox and MGM are looking at sales, as you say, then what they're seeing is that Blu-ray is catching up and is trending ahead. Why would this make them think about changing courses, as you suggest?

Because their is a high chance they were promised very different results.

Wow. I thought a discussion was breaking out.

Then you went all 8 year old on him....

Do you understand what a smiley face means at the end of a sentence?

As for Fox, the 'Fox hates Toshiba' story is a fairly often repeated one. I've heard it so many places that it is hard to believe it's purely fictitious. I certainly didn't invent it, as I don't have the imagination for such intrigue to begin with.

Realise also that Bill Gates never said that 640k was all the storage space anyone would ever need. It just got repeated over and over again until people just accepted it to be true.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

My apologies. If you spend enough time on AVS you assume that people all people are just talking out of their ass.

Not knowing the politics of MGM, my assumption was that Sony's stake in them locked them down as a Blu-ray studio. Indeed, you are the first person with any specific information that suggests this isn't the case so I'll need to look into this further.

As for Fox, the 'Fox hates Toshiba' story is a fairly often repeated one. I've heard it so many places that it is hard to believe it's purely fictitious. I certainly didn't invent it, as I don't have the imagination for such intrigue to begin with. As you say, Fox was the last studio to jump from DIVX, and when DIVX died I remember Fox being quite begrudged to depart.

If Fox and MGM are looking at sales, as you say, then what they're seeing is that Blu-ray is catching up and is trending ahead. Why would this make them think about changing courses, as you suggest? It just doesn't add up.

I could only believe you if what was happening 6 months ago was how things still were - one BD player that wasn't very good and one half priced HD-DVD player. But even then, the people buying HD-DVD were largely the same group who is buying it now - vocal early adopters.

Of course, on top of all of this is my faith in the American corporations ability to only change course when it becomes critical to do so. 6 months into a format war that one side really hasn't started aggressively fighting doesn't seem like the right timeframe for a multi-million dollar organization to just up and decide to abandon their plans.

12 months from -now- i could see it... but this soon? Forget movies, studios, and technology - from a business point of view none of these companies could possibly have ever thought the 'war' would have even really begun by now....


Consider that Sony bought 20% of MGM thinking it guaranteed them the distribution deal on MGM's catalog. The Board still voted to go with FOX instead of Sony. Sony has some influence, but past history shows that MGM goes where the money is.

As for timeframes... it took how long for each company to switch or go neutral with the DIVX/DVD fiasco? Between 6 months to 18 months. FOX held out the longest if memory serves. FOX was totally into customers having to repurchase titles they "love." For FOX it was the greatest thing they ever saw. It was so anti-consumer that they went all giddy over it.

It killed Circuit City, and it did hurt FOX's early sales in DVD. FOX quickly embraced the format with some exceptional titles and the use of DTS. So the good news is that when FOX does go neutral, we should expect PiP, etc.

The biggest problem currently for BD is attachment rates these are so far behind HD-DVD at this point it is just plain scary. The healthier format marketwise is HD-DVD by an enormous amount. Don't let BD is catching up in sales fool you. Because they are catching up in sales, but with around 4 times as many players That just isn't a strong market.

The facts are that the market is hurting drastically due to the format war. Consumers don't want it. Consumers are also very confused. The comparisons to the SACD/DVD-A battle are getting a lot of attention from executives.

Studios going neutral shows that they care about the consumer and they don't want a war. Two formats can exist.

I think everyone here, BD fans, and HD-DVD fans should be all for Disney and Co. making the switch to neutrality. Because if they do it will force Universal and Sony to make the same decisions.

Then people can be happy with their format of choice.

Then people can be happy with their format of choice.

But if all studios are equal...what's the point of having two different formats?

Sorry but I guess I'm one of the people who would just rather have one. At this point, I'm not caring WHICH...i just want one.

Any thoughts about the recent upswing for BD sales via Amazon? They're almost neck and neck.

Really? People are pretty used to seeing Toshiba gear in Best Buy for $100 or so. People assume Pioneer, Sony, etc cost more. I don't think at those price points people will think "well, one is just more expensive". They'll think it's premium product. To reach the conclusion you suggest, most people would need far more background information.

Sorry? My point was just that I'd like to walk into Best Buy, walk to a large selection of HD discs (whatever format that happens to be) and buy them. I don't go in and ask every day or anything.

Right now, I'd say it is. Neither format is really on the radar for most people. I do feel the Blu-ray has more potential to get 'on the radar' with the likes of my grandmother (for example), but I wasn't suggesting it as all the rage or anything.

If only!

This isn't too hard to believe. Most consoles are thin early, and thicken as they age from a sales perspective. Microsoft had only gotten to 5 million in July iirc, so the fact that they are -close- to 10 million now without Japan's support suggests the PS3 could do the same.

Toshiba is the 2nd most popular brand in the world. In TVs they are the 2nd most thought of in terms of quality. In DVD players they are number 1.

This is what the consumer believes. They don't think Toshiba is cheap. They aren't. However they've always offered great deals. Their RPTV HDTVs were for the longest time the best deal in HDTVs. They were always aggressively priced and were actually pretty good in PQ.

Also as far as what the consumer thinks about a $1,000 BD player and a $500 HD-DVD player...

They're buying the HD-DVD player. My stores keep track of not just sales, but in some categories we require our staff to ask questions about purchases. I can tell you that 60% of the people who buy HD-DVD were aware of it before going in the store vs over 90% of the people for BD. That means to me that the common consumer is buying the cheaper player.

But bottomline is that they think BD is way overpriced. It always amazes me how much a customer will spend on projectors, speakers, receivers/separates... but tell them they should spend $1,000 on a DVD player... and they start having problems. Anything over $1,000 is generally a tough, tough, tough sale. It doesn't matter if it's a Linn, Arcam, Lexicon, Krell, or Meridian unit. For some reason people have problem spending a lot on players. Which is weird when the source is the most important part of the chain.

As to the PS3 reaching 10,000,000 units by January 2008 they should get close. Right now most markets are cooling down on the PS3, and only markets like Chicago, NYC, and LA are having shortage issues. This is a lot earlier than I thought we'd see slowdowns.

I think the PS3 will make that 10,000,000 units. I also think the XBOX-360 will be at around 25,000,000 units at that point.

But if all studios are equal...what's the point of having two different formats?

Sorry but I guess I'm one of the people who would just rather have one. At this point, I'm not caring WHICH...i just want one.

Any thoughts about the recent upswing for BD sales via Amazon? They're almost neck and neck.

What's the point in there being anything but plasma tvs, lcos projectors, etc?

Competition is always GOOD. The point of things being equal is to create a stronger market. The war causes a very weak market. The studios are causing the war not the CE companies. A buyer can buy without fear if they know that both are getting equal treatment.

Then they buy the brand/unit that suits them best.

We're starting to see more PS3s being sold and thus sales will continue to get better for BD. Sales have also dropped on HD-DVD, as recent releases have been pathetic.

The big issue is how weak a market BD is. Even if they pass HD-DVD in sales, the attachment rate is horrible. The stronger market will still be HD-DVD.

If FOX cares so much about BD+, as you claim. Why are they releasing titles without it. There is no date when BD+ will even be available to any studio. So your claims have no merit at all.It should be pretty obvious that not having that safety net in use right now does not mean that Fox does not care about the ability to use it later, especially if AACS turns out not to be enough in their opinion. Even if the capability isn't available to them today, it in no way means it isn't something they care about for the future. If you think they changed their mind about BD+ since they chose the Blu-ray side, what are you basing that on? Because if it is based on them not using it yet, that really isn't all that logical.
The biggest problem currently for BD is attachment rates these are so far behind HD-DVD at this point it is just plain scary. The healthier format marketwise is HD-DVD by an enormous amount. Don't let BD is catching up in sales fool you. Because they are catching up in sales, but with around 4 times as many players That just isn't a strong market.Anybody really paying attention would have known that the PS3 should require more units in place for the same number of movie sales, just because it is a game machine and so many (probably most) will use it for games and not movies. Microsoft gets to count their attach rate different because most owners won't get the capability to play HD movies (by getting the add-on). If Microsoft all of a sudden sent an add-on to every XBOX360 owner tomorrow their attachment rate for movies per player would plummet and people could claim that it therefore wasn't a healthy market, even though disc sales would be higher. If the Blu-ray side gets about 20% of PS3 owners using them for movies then that will be big, despite people being able to point out that there would be 5 times as many players there than in use.
I think everyone here, BD fans, and HD-DVD fans should be all for Disney and Co. making the switch to neutrality. Because if they do it will force Universal and Sony to make the same decisions.Just to be clear, is your position really that if Disney goes neutral toward the HD DVD side that it will make it more likely that Universal will go neutral toward the Blu-ray side? Even though Disney going neutral would be more likely to give Universal's current side a win.

--Darin

It should be pretty obvious that not having that safety net in use right now does not mean that Fox does not care about the ability to use it later, especially if AACS turns out not to be enough in their opinion. Even if the capability isn't available to them today, it in no way means it isn't something they care about for the future. If you think they changed their mind about BD+ since they chose the Blu-ray side, what are you basing that on? Because if it is based on them not using it yet, that really isn't all that logical.
Anybody really paying attention would have known that the PS3 should require more units in place for the same number of movie sales, just because it is a game machine and so many (probably most) will use it for games and not movies. Microsoft gets to count their attach rate different because most owners won't get the capability to play HD movies (by getting the add-on). If Microsoft all of a sudden sent an add-on to every XBOX360 owner tomorrow their attachment rate for movies per player would plummet and people could claim that it therefore wasn't a healthy market, even though disc sales would be higher. If the Blu-ray side gets about 20% of PS3 owners using them for movies then that will be big, despite people being able to point out that there would be 5 times as many players there than in use.
Just to be clear, is your position really that if Disney goes neutral toward the HD DVD side that it will make it more likely that Universal will go neutral toward the Blu-ray side? Even though Disney going neutral would be more likely to give Universal's current side a win.

--Darin

Universal will go neutral last at the same time as Sony.

Will there even be a need for studios to switch if a good # of companies start making dual-format players? Kinda makes the situation moot.

Universal will go neutral last at the same time as Sony.I know that you want all studios to go neutral, but are you basing this on what you think is likely, or more on hope? It seems like your scenario is that either Universal or Sony will go to neutrality at a time when their chosen format is ahead.

--Darin

Really? People are pretty used to seeing Toshiba gear in Best Buy for $100 or so. People assume Pioneer, Sony, etc cost more. I don't think at those price points people will think "well, one is just more expensive". They'll think it's premium product. To reach the conclusion you suggest, most people would need far more background information.

Wait what? You are aware Sony sells gear for $100 or so as well right? You can right now get an 800W home theater in a box from Sony for $199. So I'm really not sure exactly who you think ASSUMES Sony is more expensive.

For that matter, you can get a Pioneer receiver for $199 as well.

Do you know why those companies also put out sub-$300 products? Because they need to sell them to people who..........don't want to spend a lot of money on products and thus turn to Toshiba and Aiwa and such. Sony and Pioneer want a piece of that pie too. So this is a flawed arguement in and of itself.


Sorry? My point was just that I'd like to walk into Best Buy, walk to a large selection of HD discs (whatever format that happens to be) and buy them. I don't go in and ask every day or anything.

Well, I thought you could do that right now with Blu-ray? Isn't that what the whole "nyah nyah we have more studios than you" arguement is all about? Surely you're not hung up simply because of Universal, Weinstein, and some porn are you?


I do feel the Blu-ray has more potential to get 'on the radar' with the likes of my grandmother (for example), but I wasn't suggesting it as all the rage or anything.

Exactly how is your grandmother going to hit the Blu-ray radar? She's not going to buy a video game console to watch movies with, and not many grandparents I know are ready to plop down $499-$999 for a movie player to run on a TV that likely isn't HD, and a stereo receiver they likely don't even own.

HD DVD and Blu-ray aren't targetted to that demographic.

I believe the format war has been very beneficial to the consumer.
If bd and hd dvd worked things out for one format I believe we would be still waiting for a high def. player.

There sub $1000 player would not exist for quite some time and the studios could provide people with subpar picture quality that we would have to accept for quite some time.


just my opinion.

I know that you want all studios to go neutral, but are you basing this on what you think is likely, or more on hope? It seems like your scenario is that either Universal or Sony will go to neutrality at a time when their chosen format is ahead.

--Darin

Today it is a likely scenario, the when is the question.

I believe the format war has been very beneficial to the consumer.
If bd and hd dvd worked things out for one format I believe we would be still waiting for a high def. player.

There sub $1000 player would not exist for quite some time and the studios could provide people with subpar picture quality that we would have to accept for quite some time.


just my opinion.

There would still be a format war if studios went neutral. No side would "win," but there would remain competition.

Today it is a likely scenario, the when is the question.You do understand that for your scenario to play out that either Sony or Universal would most likely have to go neutral while their chosen side is ahead, don't you? Do you believe they would go neutral even while ahead? Sony has a lot invested in Blu-ray. If you see Blu-ray leading at the time that Sony goes neutral, why do you think they would make that choice? In your view, would they do it if they thought going neutral could make them lose a war that they would have won if they had stayed exclusive?

Also, are universal players required for your scenario, or would they go neutral even without universal players and while leading in the war?

--Darin

Anybody really paying attention would have known that the PS3 should require more units in place for the same number of movie sales, just because it is a game machine and so many (probably most) will use it for games and not movies. Microsoft gets to count their attach rate different because most owners won't get the capability to play HD movies (by getting the add-on). If Microsoft all of a sudden sent an add-on to every XBOX360 owner tomorrow their attachment rate for movies per player would plummet and people could claim that it therefore wasn't a healthy market, even though disc sales would be higher. If the Blu-ray side gets about 20% of PS3 owners using them for movies then that will be big, despite people being able to point out that there would be 5 times as many players there than in use.
--Darin

While attach rates lower with greater quantity there is still an acceptable limit or a desireable one, in this case. If BR software isn't outselling HD DVD with a 4:1 (or higher) player advantage, than it might be a concern to the studios especially considering the hardcore gamers/early adopters of the PS3 are likely the ones that'll be interested in BR for some time. As the PS3 drops in price over the years and becomes ready for the mass consumer, there will likely be standalone players that are even cheaper and more desireable to the mass consumer. If BR standalone players haven't come down in price to that level in a year or so, the PS3 won't save it.

While attach rates lower with greater quantity there is still an acceptable limit or a desireable one, in this case. If BR software isn't outselling HD DVD with a 4:1 (or higher) player advantage, than it might be a concern to the studios especially considering the hardcore gamers/early adopters of the PS3 are likely the ones that'll be interested in BR for some time.I'll be interested in what the numbers out of Sony end up being, but the www.vgcharts.org shows 730,000 PS3s for the US. The HD DVD side has reportedly sold over 100,000 standalone players (I doubt it is many outside the US, so I'll go with 100,000 in the US for now). tsd2005 said he thought the XBOX360 add-on would come in at 200,000 (after earlier saying 500,000). Maybe it came in lower than 200,000 in the end. If we guessed 70,000 standalone Blu-ray players that would be 800,000 total to 300,000 for the HD DVD side. Now if the XBOX360 only sold 100,000 that wouldn't be very good considering how quickly they sold 42,000 or 50,000, so let's say 150,000. That would put the HD DVD side at 250,000. 4x that would be one million Blu-ray players and I personally doubt they reached that, although it is possible.

Robert, what would you think of 20% of the PS3s being used as Blu-ray players at this point. Do you think that would be good, bad, or average? In any case, using that number and 730,000 (with 70,000 standalones) would mean Blu-ray had effectively close to 220,000 players to HD DVD's 250,000.

I hope we'll get some numbers at CES for player shipments, but I wouldn't see a 20% rate of PS3s being used for movies as bad at all. I would see that as more of a positive for the Blu-ray side than a negative, yet using what I think are pretty realistic numbers for the HD DVD side still wouldn't mean that Blu-ray would be selling more discs than HD DVD today if each active player had the same run rate.

I agree that other BR players need to come down. But I think the PS3 could give the BR side a big boost for the next year or two. If anybody thinks the attach rate for the PS3 is really bad, I would like to see how that is shown in numbers given the number of players the HD DVD side has likely sold and that Blu-ray is nipping at HD DVD's heals for sales rank on Amazon right now in a way they haven't done at all in the last six months.

tsd2005,

If you think that Blu-ray has 4 times as many players out in the US, then I would like to hear how many HD DVD players you think there are in use. Is it the 300,000 or so that 100,000 standalones and 200,000 XBOX360 add-ons would have taken them to?

--Darin

Hey, I just put an article up too! (or three):

http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_Fatal_Flaw.html
http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_BD_1G_Obsolete.html
http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_Who_Is_Muslix.html

I'll be interested in what the numbers out of Sony end up being, but the www.vgcharts.org shows 730,000 PS3s for the US. The HD DVD side has reportedly sold over 100,000 standalone players (I doubt it is many outside the US, so I'll go with 100,000 in the US for now). tsd2005 said he thought the XBOX360 add-on would come in at 200,000 (after earlier saying 500,000). Maybe it came in lower than 200,000 in the end. If we guessed 70,000 standalone Blu-ray players that would be 800,000 total to 300,000 for the HD DVD side. Now if the XBOX360 only sold 100,000 that wouldn't be very good considering how quickly they sold 42,000 or 50,000, so let's say 150,000. That would put the HD DVD side at 250,000. 4x that would be one million Blu-ray players and I personally doubt they reached that, although it is possible.

Robert, what would you think of 20% of the PS3s being used as Blu-ray players at this point. Do you think that would be good, bad, or average? In any case, using that number and 730,000 (with 70,000 standalones) would mean Blu-ray had effectively close to 220,000 players to HD DVD's 250,000.

I hope we'll get some numbers at CES for player shipments, but I wouldn't see a 20% rate of PS3s being used for movies as bad at all. I would see that as more of a positive for the Blu-ray side than a negative, yet using what I think are pretty realistic numbers for the HD DVD side still wouldn't mean that Blu-ray would be selling more discs than HD DVD today if each active player had the same run rate.

I agree that other BR players need to come down. But I think the PS3 could give the BR side a big boost for the next year or two. If anybody thinks the attach rate for the PS3 is really bad, I would like to see how that is shown in numbers given the number of players the HD DVD side has likely sold and that Blu-ray is nipping at HD DVD's heals for sales rank on Amazon right now in a way they haven't done at all in the last six months.

--Darin

I think 20% is a good number to use and could perhaps even be in line with the expectations from studio execs but the other outside factors such as volume shipped, the HD DVD add-on for the 360, HD DVD's popularity amongst early adopt/enthusiasts (non gaming people), cheaper standalone player could lead to some very interesting number crunching and comparisons.

Let's take Sony's original estimate of 4mil PS3's by EOY 2006. If the studios signed on believing that: with a 20% attach rate that leaves us with 800,000 PS3's alone for BR movie playback. Let’s say that the attach rate is 3 movies per player for the time being. That's 2.4mil discs sold vs 600K (I’m giving Sony 1 million PS3's sold for clean cut numbers). Clearly, that’s hard to beat but with all the issues regarding the PS3 coupled with the aforementioned factors, the old projections are invalid and new numbers must be crunched. If a studio exec isn't having their staff doing that as we speak, their respective board should be very concerned.

My personal interest in all of this would be see Sony’s presentation and projections that lead certain studios to head over. BD+, BD50 and other incentives aside, I’m sure a lot of number based projections with pretty dollar signs lead to some of the signings. I’d like to compare those projections to present day situation. Maybe I should’ve asked Santa last year :)

Is there anything stopping BD+ from being implemented in a way that brings the DIVX model back to life?Yes. ;)

Let's take Sony's original estimate of 4mil PS3's by EOY 2006. If the studios signed on believing that: with a 20% attach rate that leaves us with 800,000 PS3's alone for BR movie playback. Let’s say that the attach rate is 3 movies per player for the time being. That's 2.4mil discs sold vs 600K (I’m giving Sony 1 million PS3's sold for clean cut numbers). Clearly, that’s hard to beat but with all the issues regarding the PS3 coupled with the aforementioned factors, the old projections are invalid and new numbers must be crunched. If a studio exec isn't having their staff doing that as we speak, their respective board should be very concerned.I agree. Expectations were probably higher for BR, so more disappointment at this point. But I think Warner's numbers for their expectations would indicate that they are probably disappointed in numbers from both sides. I seem to recall them predicting something like $750 million of HD software sales for 2006 (somebody please correct that if my memory is off). I'm not sure it even hit $80 million. It seemed to me like Toshiba mostly missed the Christmas sales season for their standalone players given that the limited number they released probably would have been picked up by early adopters anyway and I doubt they ended the year as well as Warner had been hoping.

Assuming they are crunching numbers, the question then becomes what to do about it. Unfortunately, that might come down to them feeling that neither one is really worth it at this point. A Blu-ray studio could go neutral, but it doesn't look like there are huge sales on the other side right now and vis versa. I know it is a little more complicated than this, but in the Amazon rankings the HD DVD side is basically leading by one title, "Batman Begins". Take that one title away and it is pretty much a tie at the moment. Way different than just a few weeks ago.

Looking at the numbers for the discs from the Weinsteins, I'm wondering if they are even going to make any money on each of their early releases, even though they are on the HD DVD side.

--Darin

You do understand that for your scenario to play out that either Sony or Universal would most likely have to go neutral while their chosen side is ahead, don't you? Do you believe they would go neutral even while ahead? Sony has a lot invested in Blu-ray. If you see Blu-ray leading at the time that Sony goes neutral, why do you think they would make that choice? In your view, would they do it if they thought going neutral could make them lose a war that they would have won if they had stayed exclusive?

Also, are universal players required for your scenario, or would they go neutral even without universal players and while leading in the war?

--Darin

What will happen is that everyone will be neutral but Sony and Universal. Universal will claim they will go neutral if Sony does. Then both go neutral. Likely with a large enough base for both formats to survive.

What will happen is that everyone will be neutral but Sony and Universal. Universal will claim they will go neutral if Sony does. Then both go neutral.Is that legal?

--Darin

I agree. Expectations were probably higher for BR, so more disappointment at this point. But I think Warner's numbers for their expectations would indicate that they are probably disappointed in numbers from both sides. I seem to recall them predicting something like $750 million of HD software sales for 2006. I'm not sure it even hit $50 million. It seemed to me like Toshiba mostly missed the Christmas sales season for their standalone players given that the limited number they released probably would have been picked up by early adopters anyway and I doubt they ended the year as well as Warner had been hoping.

Assuming they are crunching numbers, the question then becomes what to do about it. Unfortunately, that might come down to them feeling that neither one is really worth it at this point. A Blu-ray studio could go neutral, but it doesn't look like there are huge sales on the other side right now and vis versa. I know it is a little more complicated than this, but in the Amazon rankings the HD DVD side is basically leading by one title, "Batman Begins". Take that one title away and it is pretty much a tie at the moment. Way different than just a few weeks ago.

Looking at the numbers for the discs from the Weinsteins, I'm wondering if they are even going to make any money on each of their early releases, even though they are on the HD DVD side.

--Darin

Since the PS3 volume was sharply reduced I think you can carry that over to Warner's numbers being drastically cut. Ofcourse, I believed Warner's numbers to highly optimistic out of the gate as they were.......sometimes I have no clue how people sit around in a boardroom and not question this stuff. Who knows?

At the end of the day, neither format is blowing people's socks off. Outside of these forums, no one gives a ****, plain and simple. For the sake of conversation though, the job going forward for the BR camp and HD DVD camp is simple. BR needs to hold onto their CE and studio advantage and overwhelm HD DVD with product and marketing. HD DVD needs to pull support away and up their marketing. Even then, the "winner" might end up being the winner of a niche format but atleast they'll be able to say "i told you so!"

As for amazon rankings, I certainly expected this and if CE and studio support hold firm and BR flood the market with products and marketing, then BR should build up a good lead and never look back, over the next year. However, I just can't see MS and Toshiba sitting back and letting it happen. Especially how important it is for MS to hurt the PS3's economies of scale model and gain a strong advantage in the console war.

Everyone is waiting for CES. Personally I think it's too early and ripple effect, if any, would come in the later months. I'll be more interested in the snapshot come CEDIA. That should give us a very clear perspective of how things will turn out.

I agree. Expectations were probably higher for BR, so more disappointment at this point. But I think Warner's numbers for their expectations would indicate that they are probably disappointed in numbers from both sides. I seem to recall them predicting something like $750 million of HD software sales for 2006 (somebody please correct that if my memory is off). I'm not sure it even hit $80 million. It seemed to me like Toshiba mostly missed the Christmas sales season for their standalone players given that the limited number they released probably would have been picked up by early adopters anyway and I doubt they ended the year as well as Warner had been hoping.

Assuming they are crunching numbers, the question then becomes what to do about it. Unfortunately, that might come down to them feeling that neither one is really worth it at this point. A Blu-ray studio could go neutral, but it doesn't look like there are huge sales on the other side right now and vis versa. I know it is a little more complicated than this, but in the Amazon rankings the HD DVD side is basically leading by one title, "Batman Begins". Take that one title away and it is pretty much a tie at the moment. Way different than just a few weeks ago.

Looking at the numbers for the discs from the Weinsteins, I'm wondering if they are even going to make any money on each of their early releases, even though they are on the HD DVD side.

--Darin

You're way off on your numbers. $1.5B was expected in hardware and lowered to $750M. Software was "up to $500M" and lowered to $150M.

I believe that HD-DVD sales will figure out to be close to $100M for the year. Meanwhile BD sales at about $25M.

So basically their updated expectations weren't even met. While BD is catching up in sales, even on Amazon the top two HD-DVD titles are better than BD's top title.

Still top 10 HD-DVDs average around 900, while top 10 BDs average in at around 1100.

New Releases always do really well, and unfortunately for HD-DVD the only really nice release in a while has been Fearless...

So I'm not surprised at all. Plus BD gains more players everyday with the PS3 finally showing up in big numbers (I'm told 1M were sold in NA by year's end).

Hey, I just put an article up too! (or three):

http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_Fatal_Flaw.html
http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_BD_1G_Obsolete.html
http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_Who_Is_Muslix.html


Nice articles

There would still be a format war if studios went neutral. No side would "win," but there would remain competition.

The consumer would win. There would be two ways to get HD content on Disc. And competition between the two would mean better PQ and AQ and cheaper hardware/software. That's how a free market works.

IF you didn't know anything about the HD formats, and went to a store...even with idiots working there, and were at least informed that there were two HD formats but all movies could be had for either, wouldn't that elimininate a good deal of the confusion from the consumer perspective?

Since the PS3 volume was sharply reduced I think you can carry that over to Warner's numbers being drastically cut. Ofcourse, I believed Warner's numbers to highly optimistic out of the gate as they were.......sometimes I have no clue how people sit around in a boardroom and not question this stuff. Who knows?

At the end of the day, neither format is blowing people's socks off. Outside of these forums, no one gives a ****, plain and simple. For the sake of conversation though, the job going forward for the BR camp and HD DVD camp is simple. BR needs to hold onto their CE and studio advantage and overwhelm HD DVD with product and marketing. HD DVD needs to pull support away and up their marketing. Even then, the "winner" might end up being the winner of a niche format but atleast they'll be able to say "i told you so!"

As for amazon rankings, I certainly expected this and if CE and studio support hold firm and BR flood the market with products and marketing, then BR should build up a good lead and never look back, over the next year. However, I just can't see MS and Toshiba sitting back and letting it happen. Especially how important it is for MS to hurt the PS3's economies of scale model and gain a strong advantage in the console war.

Everyone is waiting for CES. Personally I think it's too early and ripple effect, if any, would come in the later months. I'll be more interested in the snapshot come CEDIA. That should give us a very clear perspective of how things will turn out.


I agree with what you see each side needing to do to win. If BD can hold the line...any since it is is only missing Universal, and release GOOD titles that are well mastered, and bring down hardware costs (COMPETITION between CE should help here) they can win. IF HD DVD can get Disney and FOX to go netral and draw additional CE support, they can win.

Either way, I feel the competition in this early stage will help to generate a better quality product regardless of the outcome. It will force everyone involved to try and go one better.

You also make a good point about MS. They do have an interest in hurting sony since their consoles compete.

I would disagree that people don't care outside of this forum. With the BD player all over the B&M stores, people are seeing these things. They might not be buying them yet, but the are taking notice. With more and more HDTV's coming out people will want more content. As to what BS they are being fed at these stores....well that's a whole other thread ;)

Ah, the joys of being format neutral :D

What's the point in there being anything but plasma tvs, lcos projectors, etc?

Competition is always GOOD. The point of things being equal is to create a stronger market. The war causes a very weak market. The studios are causing the war not the CE companies. A buyer can buy without fear if they know that both are getting equal treatment.

Then they buy the brand/unit that suits them best.

We're starting to see more PS3s being sold and thus sales will continue to get better for BD. Sales have also dropped on HD-DVD, as recent releases have been pathetic.

The big issue is how weak a market BD is. Even if they pass HD-DVD in sales, the attachment rate is horrible. The stronger market will still be HD-DVD.


Competition is good. Competing standards is not. Competition among CE players to keep prices works as well and does not lock out people from one standard or another. You say you want neutrality to happen to enable people to move on. It's simpler for Universal to switch to Blu-ray. Boom. Problem solved. Then Toshiba can scrap their HD DVD players and switch to Blu-ray. Again, problem solved. Toshiba competes with Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, and Samsung on player costs. No war, no fuss.

Rather, though, you would like to think that because one market sold around 100,000 (maybe) units of players while another sold only potentially 75k worth of players that will be used as players, suddenly Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, and MGM are going to be going, "THE SKY IS FALLING! OMGZ! WE MUST SWITCH BEFORE WE LOSE MONEY!" Newsflash. Universal and WB's might love that they've got the "most" sales on HD DVD or have in past months when their releases were anything but crap, but the truth is the sales are pittance. Like it has been said, if they REALLY wanted to keep from losing money and guarantee success, they'd drop out of high definition disc entirely and stick with DVD from the start. It's too late for that.

The fact is the BD market is picking up steam. Fox didn't release very many BD's during 2006, so they can't be disappointed with sales. Sheesh, they just barely got started and delayed at least a few titles already. As for Disney, well, with the pittance Disney has released, they can't have expected mindblowing sales either. You argue that Disney was promised this or that, but they didn't match up. I would argue that HD DVD was first place and just managed to lose a little less money than the competition. 2006 wasn't the year when the format war would be decided. Nobody thought that. What Sony promised was that Blu-ray would pick up when PS3 arrived. And look at that! It did pick up. They met their promise. Did they promise to steamroll HD DVD? Well, let's see. They promised to have steamroll the market with players. They did it. Players by Samsung, Sony, Pioneer, and Panasonic all hit the market. They promised the PS3 would come and pick up sales. It did. Seems like they're a corporation of their word.

Did they say that the PS3 would win the war? Sure. The war ain't over yet, the PS3's been out for a MONTH AND A HALF. You act as though Fox/MGM and Disney are itchy, antsy, worried they made the wrong choice, consumed by the fear that they are LOSING MONEY right this moment. Hell, we all know the HD market ain't that big. Not HD DVD, not Blu-ray. It could be, but one of these standards has to go. Which is easier to dissolve? Yes, that's HD DVD. No, it's not going to and we know Universal'll eat blu-ray discs for lunch before they go Blu-ray out of a distinct distaste between its CEO and Sony. So there we are.

And no, I don't believe that Toshiba could make the A1 without losing money. I don't care what they say, I've seen the insides of an A1 and I know that building a CE device like that costs a lot of money. More than 500, you can be sure. The hardware they used alone would have cost more. So Toshiba bit the bullet and took the hit. Fine. Great. So did Samsung, though less of one.

If CES brings 400 dollar BD players, I can't see how that won't really change the landscape of this market. People wonder, "Why would a 400 dollar BD player vs a 300 dollar HD DVD player be any different from a 1k BD player vs a 500 HD DVD player?" Because a consumer is going to look at titles like Chicken Little, Pirates of the Carribean (and quite possibly its sequel), Alien Vs Predator (and perhaps its predecessors), Mr and Mrs Smith, any number of Fox, MGM, Disney titles, including a new Bond movie, and they'll see why they're paying an extra 100 dollars.

So here's the short of it:

1) Disney and Fox are more patient than you give them credit for. As soon as Fox decided to delay until the PS3 launch, we all knew that meant they would be going well into 2007 before they would change. We knew by the releases Disney put out that they weren't taking the format seriously in 2006 because they, too, knew the game didn't really start until the PS3 came. Now that it's here, what do we hear? Chicken Little, Pirates of the Carribean. Even Nemo and whisperes about Cars. There's no other way to see this. They've just got started with Blu-ray and you act as though we're years into this war and HD DVD's walking all over Blu-ray when it's not.

2) Your argument is that because there are more PS3's and Blu-ray players, no amount of sales will bode well. If more sales happen for BD, then that just shows how bad the attach rate is. HD DVD is better. If it doesn't happen, then HD DVD is better by default. By your argument, even if BD surpass HD DVD as 2007 goes on, you'll STILL be arguing that the attach rate is poor based on the number of PS3's that go out and thus "HD DVD is healthy." Yeah, right. I don't care about attach rate. I care about discs sold. In the end, I think that's all the movie publishers will care about, too.

3) Speaking of which, you said that HD DVD now sells 1.5:1 of Blu-ray. That's interesting. A month ago it was... what? 4:1? So in a month, they've cut it down by quite a lot. I suppose that's PS3. That's after only one month of PS3 sales, which don't even count a full month since we haven't really seen what December or the beginning of January are like. I've seen several BD ads over the last couple of weeks. Yes, BDA has better advertising. HD DVD could do better, but they don't. Their own fault.

4) When you site this change in sales numbers, you lament that it's for lack of releases. But hey, I could argue the same damn thing in Late Summer/Fall 2006. HD DVD had releases from WB's that they didn't bother to send over to Blu-ray. Hey, this is easy then. Any time sales dip, you just say, "Well, they didn't have any good releases then." Man, that makes this whole debating the numbers of sales thing easy! I'd say that if BD is selling more during the Christmas holiday season, then that suggests HD DVD is not doing as well by comparison in the same period. Now I'm going to ignore your silly, "They didn't have the releases," argument since HD DVD still has, by and large, a better library, thanks in no small part to Universal's enthusiasm for the format (and blowing its launch wad so early in the standard's history) and WB's favoritism that seems to be fading away. Given the sheer numbers of titles that were available, it could well be that the PS3 combined with the arrival of Fox and some better titles from other BDA studios have resulted in garnering interest in the format. Far better than the meager titles and poor quality of the titles earlier in the year when they launched prematurely. If this is the case, then BLu-ray may just now be showing its potential and by comparison, sales for HD DVD may be holding steady. Or they could begin to diminish if Blu-ray continues to build momentum.

5) Universal is the big reason that the catalogue for HD DVD looks as good as it does. They have released some really big titles while the BDA seemed very unprepared for that. They released the substandard titles that most companies release at a format's launch. Universal and, to a more limited degree, WB released some really big titles. Universal's quickly running through its best catalogue titles, though. What will happen when Fox, Disney, MGM, and Sony/Tristar/Columbia do the same? For most of 2006, they were content to muddle through, but that doesn't seem to be the case for 2007. What then? Do you really think the movie executives are unaware of this fact? Do you think they think just because they released five to ten discs on a format and all of them were not megahits, that the format is DOOMED?

6) I can't say it enough. You act as though we're talking about millions of units or even millions of dollars. We're talking hundreds of thousands of dollars, at most. We're talking tens of thousands of units, close to a hundred thousand maybe if you count an Xbox add on that seems to have been bought by quite a few people who already owned an A1. People who are buying the A2's? A lot of them had A1's, some even had XA1's after that. So what happens when you have a lot of people moving through the same hardware? You've a stagnant market. We already know Toshiba's not producing a TON of these devices, so what does it mean that I see so many talking about having upgraded their units? I'm not saying there aren't a lot of A1's out there, but it's as easy comparing how many people went with an A1, then an XA1, then possibly got an add-on for their bedroom and an A2 for the reduced speed as to attack the number of PS3's sold as making a "low attach rate." I think they could equally affect attach rate, but I don't hear you noting that.

So blah, blah, blah. You can repeat over and over why you think Disney will turn, but I think you're reaching. Because we're not even close to the end-game and we're not even talking about the big money yet. We're just talking about a niche product fighting another niche product in a niche market over domination of a niche marketplace.

It'd be a lot easier for us all if Universal'd just stop fighting and switch so we could take the niche market and make it the replacement for DVD, but I don't hear you arguing that. Do you know why? Because you're not really for neutrality and people choosing what standard they want. You're afraid that Blu-ray's going to make your standard a dead format and so you think spreading FUD about everyone going neutral is best will help.

No. I'm sorry. By the time Sony goes HD DVD or Universal goes BD, the war will be over and one or the other will be dead. The sooner this happens, the better. One company or five need to change. I say let it be the one.

I'm ready for a high def disc format to hit the big leagues.

Competition is good. Competing standards is not. Competition among CE players to keep prices works as well and does not lock out people from one standard or another. You say you want neutrality to happen to enable people to move on. It's simpler for Universal to switch to Blu-ray. Boom. Problem solved. Then Toshiba can scrap their HD DVD players and switch to Blu-ray. Again, problem solved. Toshiba competes with Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, and Samsung on player costs. No war, no fuss.

Rather, though, you would like to think that because one market sold around 100,000 (maybe) units of players while another sold only potentially 75k worth of players that will be used as players, suddenly Fox, Disney, Lionsgate, and MGM are going to be going, "THE SKY IS FALLING! OMGZ! WE MUST SWITCH BEFORE WE LOSE MONEY!" Newsflash. Universal and WB's might love that they've got the "most" sales on HD DVD or have in past months when their releases were anything but crap, but the truth is the sales are pittance. Like it has been said, if they REALLY wanted to keep from losing money and guarantee success, they'd drop out of high definition disc entirely and stick with DVD from the start. It's too late for that.

The fact is the BD market is picking up steam. Fox didn't release very many BD's during 2006, so they can't be disappointed with sales. Sheesh, they just barely got started and delayed at least a few titles already. As for Disney, well, with the pittance Disney has released, they can't have expected mindblowing sales either. You argue that Disney was promised this or that, but they didn't match up. I would argue that HD DVD was first place and just managed to lose a little less money than the competition. 2006 wasn't the year when the format war would be decided. Nobody thought that. What Sony promised was that Blu-ray would pick up when PS3 arrived. And look at that! It did pick up. They met their promise. Did they promise to steamroll HD DVD? Well, let's see. They promised to have steamroll the market with players. They did it. Players by Samsung, Sony, Pioneer, and Panasonic all hit the market. They promised the PS3 would come and pick up sales. It did. Seems like they're a corporation of their word.

Did they say that the PS3 would win the war? Sure. The war ain't over yet, the PS3's been out for a MONTH AND A HALF. You act as though Fox/MGM and Disney are itchy, antsy, worried they made the wrong choice, consumed by the fear that they are LOSING MONEY right this moment. Hell, we all know the HD market ain't that big. Not HD DVD, not Blu-ray. It could be, but one of these standards has to go. Which is easier to dissolve? Yes, that's HD DVD. No, it's not going to and we know Universal'll eat blu-ray discs for lunch before they go Blu-ray out of a distinct distaste between its CEO and Sony. So there we are.

And no, I don't believe that Toshiba could make the A1 without losing money. I don't care what they say, I've seen the insides of an A1 and I know that building a CE device like that costs a lot of money. More than 500, you can be sure. The hardware they used alone would have cost more. So Toshiba bit the bullet and took the hit. Fine. Great. So did Samsung, though less of one.

If CES brings 400 dollar BD players, I can't see how that won't really change the landscape of this market. People wonder, "Why would a 400 dollar BD player vs a 300 dollar HD DVD player be any different from a 1k BD player vs a 500 HD DVD player?" Because a consumer is going to look at titles like Chicken Little, Pirates of the Carribean (and quite possibly its sequel), Alien Vs Predator (and perhaps its predecessors), Mr and Mrs Smith, any number of Fox, MGM, Disney titles, including a new Bond movie, and they'll see why they're paying an extra 100 dollars.

So here's the short of it:

1) Disney and Fox are more patient than you give them credit for. As soon as Fox decided to delay until the PS3 launch, we all knew that meant they would be going well into 2007 before they would change. We knew by the releases Disney put out that they weren't taking the format seriously in 2006 because they, too, knew the game didn't really start until the PS3 came. Now that it's here, what do we hear? Chicken Little, Pirates of the Carribean. Even Nemo and whisperes about Cars. There's no other way to see this. They've just got started with Blu-ray and you act as though we're years into this war and HD DVD's walking all over Blu-ray when it's not.

2) Your argument is that because there are more PS3's and Blu-ray players, no amount of sales will bode well. If more sales happen for BD, then that just shows how bad the attach rate is. HD DVD is better. If it doesn't happen, then HD DVD is better by default. By your argument, even if BD surpass HD DVD as 2007 goes on, you'll STILL be arguing that the attach rate is poor based on the number of PS3's that go out and thus "HD DVD is healthy." Yeah, right. I don't care about attach rate. I care about discs sold. In the end, I think that's all the movie publishers will care about, too.

3) Speaking of which, you said that HD DVD now sells 1.5:1 of Blu-ray. That's interesting. A month ago it was... what? 4:1? So in a month, they've cut it down by quite a lot. I suppose that's PS3. That's after only one month of PS3 sales, which don't even count a full month since we haven't really seen what December or the beginning of January are like. I've seen several BD ads over the last couple of weeks. Yes, BDA has better advertising. HD DVD could do better, but they don't. Their own fault.

4) When you site this change in sales numbers, you lament that it's for lack of releases. But hey, I could argue the same damn thing in Late Summer/Fall 2006. HD DVD had releases from WB's that they didn't bother to send over to Blu-ray. Hey, this is easy then. Any time sales dip, you just say, "Well, they didn't have any good releases then." Man, that makes this whole debating the numbers of sales thing easy! I'd say that if BD is selling more during the Christmas holiday season, then that suggests HD DVD is not doing as well by comparison in the same period. Now I'm going to ignore your silly, "They didn't have the releases," argument since HD DVD still has, by and large, a better library, thanks in no small part to Universal's enthusiasm for the format (and blowing its launch wad so early in the standard's history) and WB's favoritism that seems to be fading away. Given the sheer numbers of titles that were available, it could well be that the PS3 combined with the arrival of Fox and some better titles from other BDA studios have resulted in garnering interest in the format. Far better than the meager titles and poor quality of the titles earlier in the year when they launched prematurely. If this is the case, then BLu-ray may just now be showing its potential and by comparison, sales for HD DVD may be holding steady. Or they could begin to diminish if Blu-ray continues to build momentum.

5) Universal is the big reason that the catalogue for HD DVD looks as good as it does. They have released some really big titles while the BDA seemed very unprepared for that. They released the substandard titles that most companies release at a format's launch. Universal and, to a more limited degree, WB released some really big titles. Universal's quickly running through its best catalogue titles, though. What will happen when Fox, Disney, MGM, and Sony/Tristar/Columbia do the same? For most of 2006, they were content to muddle through, but that doesn't seem to be the case for 2007. What then? Do you really think the movie executives are unaware of this fact? Do you think they think just because they released five to ten discs on a format and all of them were not megahits, that the format is DOOMED?

6) I can't say it enough. You act as though we're talking about millions of units or even millions of dollars. We're talking hundreds of thousands of dollars, at most. We're talking tens of thousands of units, close to a hundred thousand maybe if you count an Xbox add on that seems to have been bought by quite a few people who already owned an A1. People who are buying the A2's? A lot of them had A1's, some even had XA1's after that. So what happens when you have a lot of people moving through the same hardware? You've a stagnant market. We already know Toshiba's not producing a TON of these devices, so what does it mean that I see so many talking about having upgraded their units? I'm not saying there aren't a lot of A1's out there, but it's as easy comparing how many people went with an A1, then an XA1, then possibly got an add-on for their bedroom and an A2 for the reduced speed as to attack the number of PS3's sold as making a "low attach rate." I think they could equally affect attach rate, but I don't hear you noting that.

So blah, blah, blah. You can repeat over and over why you think Disney will turn, but I think you're reaching. Because we're not even close to the end-game and we're not even talking about the big money yet. We're just talking about a niche product fighting another niche product in a niche market over domination of a niche marketplace.

It'd be a lot easier for us all if Universal'd just stop fighting and switch so we could take the niche market and make it the replacement for DVD, but I don't hear you arguing that. Do you know why? Because you're not really for neutrality and people choosing what standard they want. You're afraid that Blu-ray's going to make your standard a dead format and so you think spreading FUD about everyone going neutral is best will help.

No. I'm sorry. By the time Sony goes HD DVD or Universal goes BD, the war will be over and one or the other will be dead. The sooner this happens, the better. One company or five need to change. I say let it be the one.

I'm ready for a high def disc format to hit the big leagues.


Maybe when BD starts making discs that look as good as HD DVD, I'll buy this. Until then, the "just submit to the almighty BD" argument is just absurd. "Just give up" is a lame argument. I own both, so I think I have the right to make that statement.

$100 more for AVP? Please, you can studios will have to do better than that movie

We carry 163 HD DVD titles in our inventory.

-Robert

Yes but a few of those titles are not even out yet.

Greg

Maybe when BD starts making discs that look as good as HD DVD, I'll buy this. Until then, the "just submit to the almighty BD" argument is just absurd. .


Already happened. Several Warner BDs use exactly the same transfer as the HD-DVD version. PQ must therefore be identical. Any variations will be due to the players.