There are several indications that currently BD movie software are subsidised in someway. If BD is declared the winner and HD DVD is no more (dont kill me please :p ) , will the BD movie software price be increased as the motivation to keep the price down is no longer there? (with HD DVD no longer in the picture).

That could happen, yes. That's why I support HD and not BD. HD is more consumer friendly.

By the time any such determination could be made; prices would have dropped below the current levels, end result we wouldn’t notice the difference even if it occurred.

Why do the AVS Forums continue to allow HD-DVD supporters to spread malicious lies? First, this guy creates a thread with a false accusation called "AVS insider 'sacked' for criticizing Talladega Night PQ" and now this. And the mods don't do ****!

Ban this guy already.

Well it's pretty clear that all HD-DVDs would be "combos" if they had the capacity to make them. They charge $5 more right now. Maybe they would charge $10 dollars more if BD wasn't there for the "competition".. ;)

b2b

Why do the AVS Forums continue to allow HD-DVD supporters to spread malicious lies? First, this guy creates a thread with a false accusation called "AVS insider 'sacked' for criticizing Talladega Night PQ" and now this. And the mods don't do ****!

Ban this guy already.
You know the difference between an accusation and a hypothesis right? I'm speaking to this thread, not the "AVS insider 'sacked'" thread.

Oh, and b.greenway, there's only a few hours left for your prediction:

The net result of this may surprise even the most ardent Blu-ray supporters; I’m told to expect at least one Blu-ray exclusive studio to announce neutrality, before the end of the year.http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2006/10/hollywood_insid.html

There are several indications that currently BD movie software are subsidised in someway. If BD is declared the winner and HD DVD is no more (dont kill me please :p ) , will the BD movie software price be increased as the motivation to keep the price down is no longer there? (with HD DVD no longer in the picture).

Given Sony's track record of excellent customer service, and consumer forward approach to the market I would predict software prices to start a decline should they win.

Oh, and b.greenway, there's only a few hours left for your prediction:

http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2006/10/hollywood_insid.html

That's hilarious.

I'd say no, buy that time their will be a clear winner. I think both formats will be around for some time. Some side switching among the studios could occur.

But I think nether format will win DVD is far to strong. Not many pepole have the cappabilty to use HD to the fullest anyway.
With DVD players selling at 29 bucks each how can they either win over all.

But if one side must I'd vote for HD-DVD.
Sony has a poor track recored although they do like to hang on till the bitter End (look at UMD they still make movies for that thing)...


I think sony will be strong in the blank media format but maybe not the blu-ray movie format the demade is not high enough. Like said many are still just getting the hang of DVD.


But, eitherway I will buy HDDVD as long as I can, and until it or bluray fails I won't stop buying. I may switch sides if needed. But I will keep my HDDVD player and movies. They're still HD so if BR wins they won't stop working. My LDs still "work" and that format is dead..

That's hilarious.
He didn't answer my question but it was pretty damn funny :) Maybe Rob will give me an 11 day and 8 hr. extension? ;)

Why do the AVS Forums continue to allow HD-DVD supporters to spread malicious lies? First, this guy creates a thread with a false accusation called "AVS insider 'sacked' for criticizing Talladega Night PQ" and now this. And the mods don't do ****!

Ban this guy already.

yupe .. 'sacked' from posting at AVS .. which part of the thread is 'malicious; and which part is a lie ;)

Given Sony's track record of excellent customer service, and consumer forward approach to the market I would predict software prices to start a decline should they win.
I’m being dead serious here, no sarcasm. You’re joking right?

He didn't answer my question but it was pretty damn funny :) Maybe Rob will give me an 11 day and 8 hr. extension? ;)

Why that day vs the 7th when HD-DVD is doing their pre-CES announcements?

Why that day vs the 7th when HD-DVD is doing their pre-CES announcements?
No reason other than the 11th is the last day of CES. But yeah, looking forward to hearing what Toshiba has to say.

Oh, and b.greenway, there's only a few hours left for your prediction:

That's not fighting fair. You don't think that if someone were to scrub all the AVS format-war threads for the last two years, that there would be a fair amount of bad calls on both sides of the fence? Dirty pool, my man, just so you know.

That's not fighting fair. You don't think that if someone were to scrub all the AVS format-war threads for the last two years, that there would be a fair amount of bad calls on both sides of the fence? Dirty pool, my man, just so you know.

There's nothing wrong with holding people accountable for what they say. In fact, I find it commendable...and it's funny as heck.

I’m being dead serious here, no sarcasm. You’re joking right?


Yes, joking. Its just funny that I post something which seems like a reasonable statement, which some orginizations should at least strive for, and it gets a response like yours.

There are several indications that currently BD movie software are subsidised in someway. If BD is declared the winner and HD DVD is no more (dont kill me please :p ) , will the BD movie software price be increased as the motivation to keep the price down is no longer there? (with HD DVD no longer in the picture).
Not any more than if the opposite (BD went away) occurred.

You people need to get a grip, on both sides of the issue.

There are several indications that currently BD movie software are subsidised in someway. If BD is declared the winner and HD DVD is no more (dont kill me please :p ) , will the BD movie software price be increased as the motivation to keep the price down is no longer there? (with HD DVD no longer in the picture).
It's difficult to say, but there is no doubt that HD DVD is less expensive to produce, and the studios that are releasing on Blu-Ray are only trying to keep disc prices close to HD DVD. I would expect it to go up about $5 per title, but that's only conjecture, especially when I don't expect Blu-Ray to win. :o

1. The real competition is DVD at that point anyway, and probably new technologies like downloading.
2. The cost of manufacture is small compared to the list prices charged.


It was predicted two years ago by Toshiba that consumers would pay more for Blu-ray disks. This hasn't happened and I doubt that it will.

Why do the AVS Forums continue to allow HD-DVD supporters to spread malicious lies?

Exactly. There's nothing wrong with arguing on merits, but do you know how many times I had to correct HD-DVD supporters in the last two weeks for saying things like:

-"BD cost more to buy than HD-DVD" (this despite the fact that there isn't a single title that is more expensive on BD than its HD-DVD counterpart

-"$1000 for a BD player vs. $500 for HD-DVD. No contest. HD-DVD wins."

-"The Samsung player is $799 at Amazon" (it was actually $569 and had been under $600 for several weeks).

Given Sony's track record of excellent customer service, and consumer forward approach to the market I would predict software prices to start a decline should they win.

As if Sony has any say as to what any other studio charges for their discs.

Replication costs have little effect on the end-cost to the consumer. Both CD and DVD replication costs have dropped drastically in recent years. DVD costs have gone down to the consumer, CD costs have gone up.

2. The cost of manufacture is small compared to the list prices charged.
I am sure you know this but studios do not get the list price as the booked revenue. They get the net price after distributor/retailer discount.

It was predicted two years ago by Toshiba that consumers would pay more for Blu-ray disks. This hasn't happened and I doubt that it will.
They probably didn't realize some BD company was going to shoulder the cost difference to make this market ;). Interestingly enough, some of the other BD companies did and relied on it! Makes you wonder who is really the smarter one of the bunch! :) And yes, BD folks didn't think Toshiba was going to price their player so low. So tit for tat. :D

Anyway, the disc production subsidies are not forever and still represent a big premium over DVD costs. When you are Warner and stamp out half a billion DVDs a year, even a 10 cent cost differential amounts to $50M/year. That is not small change. And we are talking about much larger differential than ten cents here.

If BD production cost had come down and there were proof of that from independent replicators, your prediction would obviously be a prudent one. But as it is, those dynamics are artificial and temporary. The hope is that they climb the learning curve on BD production fast enough to have the real cost be reasonable when the ballon payment comes due. Without deep industry knowledge, anyone making a prediction about this would have equal chances of winning a game in Vegas :).

Exactly. There's nothing wrong with arguing on merits, but do you know how many times I had to correct HD-DVD supporters in the last two weeks for saying things like:


-"$1000 for a BD player vs. $500 for HD-DVD. No contest. HD-DVD wins."

-"The Samsung player is $799 at Amazon" (it was actually $569 and had been under $600 for several weeks).


I would agree with the other parts but the one above still makes me laugh. The Samsung is not worth even $569. It is a mediocre DVD player and a only a fairly competent BD player. Obviously, this thing has been discounted for some time and still is gathering dust on the shelves of many BB stores (I still count the original six here from months ago)

If you like this player so much, buy them up and try to sell them to unsuspecting Ebayers....and good luck.

They probably didn't realize some BD company was going to shoulder the cost difference to make this market . Interestingly enough, some of the other BD companies did and relied on it! Makes you wonder who is really the smarter one of the bunch! And yes, BD folks didn't think Toshiba was going to price their player so low. So tit for tat.

Competition then has driven prices down on both sides :)

The bigger issue in terms of taking a bite out of consumer pockets is the software moreso than the players.

A valid question is not only whether prices would go up w/o competition but also would prices fall at a much slower pace in the absence of competition?

That's not fighting fair. You don't think that if someone were to scrub all the AVS format-war threads for the last two years, that there would be a fair amount of bad calls on both sides of the fence? Dirty pool, my man, just so you know.

That's why anyone seeking fame and fortune with crystal ball gazing into the tech futures should study Nostradamus. Cloak your language in obscure and lyrical terms that can have multiple meanings, make lots of predictions to make sure at least some come true --- you could always point to the ones that could be construed as not wrong and say, "even Canseco did not bat 300 every year."

So predictions such as : "HD-DVD is toast", "BD50 is science fiction", "An exclusive studio will flip by end of the year", or even this one : "BD movie price increase if BD wins the war" are powerful and definite statements. But there is no wiggle room in any of the above and that's why Nostradamus would never utter predictions as these.

Rather, Nostradamus would say
(1) HD-DVD is toast.
--->
For there will be a forum on a spider spun webs,
With men (some women too) meeting to talk of moving pictures and sound
And a format with cases of color defnitely not green,
Would break bread that has been warmed over twice.

Or
(4) BD movie price increase if BD wins the war.
--->
Of moving pictures captured in boxes that are definitely not green.
We shall see one stand on the field of trumpets with workers in dairy products in general,
And should one emerge triumphant,
More green is expected to be seen in the coming days.

----------------------

On a more serious note, my crystal ball is in the shop getting fixed, so no soothsaying for me, the prices of BD are already exorbitant today, it's the retailers that are heavily discounting at percentages close to DVD discounts.

BD discs should actually be cheaper than HD DVD discs eventually due to volume. BD has PS3 games, computer optical storage, movies..etc. The only good usuage for HD-DVD discs are movies.

BD discs should actually be cheaper than HD DVD discs eventually due to volume. BD has PS3 games, computer optical storage, movies..etc. The only good usuage for HD-DVD discs are movies.

I would guess that SL BD-ROM discs should cost less than DL-HD-DVD very soon. A single layer to master and press will be cheaper than two masters and two layers.

And with VC-1 making leaps and bounds improvements in encoding efficiency, 25GB should be as good as 30GB pretty quick.... ;)

b2b

BD discs should actually be cheaper than HD DVD discs eventually due to volume. BD has PS3 games, computer optical storage, movies..etc. The only good usuage for HD-DVD discs are movies.

But when you factor in the setup costs for BD production it can easily swing the other way. Also with very few production facilities, if demand does exceed supply, i'd be very surprised if a manufacturer didn't up the price to maximise their ROI.

I would agree with the other parts but the one above still makes me laugh. The Samsung is not worth even $569. It is a mediocre DVD player and a only a fairly competent BD player. Obviously, this thing has been discounted for some time and still is gathering dust on the shelves of many BB stores (I still count the original six here from months ago)

The point wasn't whether or not the Samsung is a great machine or not. The point was that HD-DVD supporters are constantly inflating prices of BD players and discs. It's become so common, it is laughable.

A valid question is not only whether prices would go up w/o competition but also would prices fall at a much slower pace in the absence of competition?

Exactly, I do not believe higher prices are likely as much as the BDA would want that due to the effect it would have on adoption of HD optical.

But I do believe they will remain higher for much longer if BD prevails. BD+, ROM Mark, and hard coating have to add to replication costs. Many current BD titles avoid royalties by not using advanced codecs. Too many built-in cost uppers, IMO.

The point wasn't whether or not the Samsung is a great machine or not. The point was that HD-DVD supporters are constantly inflating prices of BD players and discs. It's become so common, it is laughable.

Inflated BD player prices yes. But not by us - they have been inflated by BD supporting manufacturers.

BD group wants to play this format introduction conventionally - with very high prices & margins in the beginning - creaming early adopters for all their worth.

Inflated BD player prices yes. But not by us - they have been inflated by BD supporting manufacturers.

BD group wants to play this format introduction conventionally - with very high prices & margins in the beginning - creaming early adopters for all their worth.

Right, and Toshiba.org is not interested in making profit and care about the consumers so much that they subsidize their 1G players.

Right, and Toshiba.org is not interested in making profit and care about the consumers so much that they subsidize their 1G players.

Both sides seem to lie a lot. Toshiba never subsidized their players. This is all based on some guy's internet site that went and priced each piece of equipment, without figuring out the cost of bulk, etc.

The same site I think says the PS3 is subsidizing and losing something like $700 a machine, where Sony has told people it's around $300.

The 1st Gen Toshibas were not subsidized, but they were sold at the lowest point possible. Where as the 2nd Gen Toshiba can go down to $349 MSRP.

Also everyone is talking MSRP on these players. We don't hunt down the best price for the A2 or Samsung players to argue a point about pricing. We quote the MSRP. That isn't lying. That's just common sense. There has been an MSRP drop to $899. Amazon is making practically nothing selling them for $569.

So really when people quote the prices, instead of "twice as much," they need to be saying for "$400 more."

This thread should be retitled FUD. :D

Right, and Toshiba.org is not interested in making profit and care about the consumers so much that they subsidize their 1G players.
Downright heroic is how I would describe the HD-DVD stand by Tosh and MS. Reminds me of the charge of the light brigade. I feel poetry coming on:

"Blu to the left, even Blu-er to the right
Into silicon valley rode the dvd forum guys" (j/k)

(Incidentally, Intel and HP, whose defections were supposed to rock the highdef war are evidently doing zilch to help out. I am curious why.)


But seriously, life has been rather sweet, so far, for HD-DVD buyers:

1. Subsidized 1st gen players. (A full PC inside the player. In case the format doesn't last, it can be used for PC parts. Also, it teaches you the virtue of patience every time you start it. j/k again)

2. Subsidized add-on. Great value at the price. No hdmi, audio lacking a bit.. but still rather decent.

3. Great PQ of launch titles

This thread should be retitled FUD. :D
no no no, it should be retitled "FUD?" in keeping with the tone of the original title =) The '?' is all-important

"AVS insider 'sacked' for criticizing Talladega Night PQ"
Someone was sacked?? :eek:

Where's the thread? :eek:

Both sides seem to lie a lot. Toshiba never subsidized their players. This is all based on some guy's internet site that went and priced each piece of equipment, without figuring out the cost of bulk, etc.

The same site I think says the PS3 is subsidizing and losing something like $700 a machine, where Sony has told people it's around $300.

The 1st Gen Toshibas were not subsidized, but they were sold at the lowest point possible. Where as the 2nd Gen Toshiba can go down to $349 MSRP.

Also everyone is talking MSRP on these players. We don't hunt down the best price for the A2 or Samsung players to argue a point about pricing. We quote the MSRP. That isn't lying. That's just common sense. There has been an MSRP drop to $899. Amazon is making practically nothing selling them for $569.

So really when people quote the prices, instead of "twice as much," they need to be saying for "$400 more."

Some guy's internet site ?? :confused:

Maybe you need to look a little closer. Isuppli (http://www.isuppli.com/catalog/detail.asp?id=8405) is a recognized authority on cost analysis..

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800422980_480700_d841e9b5200606.HTM

b2b

Some guy's internet site ?? :confused:

Maybe you need to look a little closer. Isuppli (http://www.isuppli.com/catalog/detail.asp?id=8405) is a recognized authority on cost analysis..

b2b
Oh man - this was TOO easy :)

According to i-suppli, the PS3 costs $805 and $840 to build, losing up to $305 per unit sold. - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061117130000.html

This is even higher than the Merrill Lynch estimate earlier this year, which Sony (naturally) claimed was false - http://www.engadget.com/2006/02/18/playstation-3-costs-900-sez-merrill-lynch-mob/

As usual, it turns out that Sony wasn't "accurate"?