BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.If those numbers are right and your 1.5:1 lead in software sales for HD DVD for December is right, then it does support that the PS3 is very important. Especially if it started the month of December higher than 1.5:1 and ended up lower on a run rate level.

Your numbers end up at 270,000 vs 25,000 without the PS3, so there is pretty much no way that BD software sales could be even close without the PS3 being significant. If the ratio of players in use was 1.5:1 in HD DVD's favor (I know it doesn't have to be for the software ratio to be there, but this is just an example), then that would mean 155,000 PS3s in use as players. Which would be 20% if the total PS3 count was 775,000.

BTW: I guess I better check. Were those US numbers? That is what I was going by.

--Darin

I bet it's at least that. My thoughts are a lot of PS3 were sold with the direct intention of using it as a Blu-ray player and not a gaming machine - a lot more than people think.

Chris

Yeah Darin that's US only... and now there are reports that those numbers might be lower than in actuality anyway.

But if those BD standalone sales are real, then yeah... PS3 is the crucial element. I mean it was anyway, but...

In any event, it will be interesting to see what CES brings. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of that 25,000 wasn't in recent months, as prices on certain players have come down. Hopefully CES brings a number of lower priced standalones to the table.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

I don't think you can get at WSJ articles anywhere without a subscription. Here's the relevant passage from the article:

About 695,000 consumers own either a Blu-ray or an HD-DVD player, according to Tom Adams of Adams Media Research in Carmel, Calif. But only about 25,000 have purchased stand-alone Blu-ray players. Another 400,000 consumers have Blu-ray because they bought a Sony PS3 game console. Meanwhile, about 120,000 or so have a stand-alone HD-DVD player while about 150,000 have an HD-DVD upgrade kit for their Xbox 360 game consoles, Mr. Adams says. He adds that those numbers are well in excess of the 300,000 DVD-player sales in 1997, when that technology rolled out.

Some consumers have dodged high-definition players because they already own top-of-the-line DVD players that add higher resolution onto regular DVDs so they look crisper on HDTV sets. For those viewers, there might not be much advantage to the newer technologies.

San Francisco computer consultant Tyler Dikman, for example, owns a high-end Denon 3910 DVD player that he uses with a 60-inch Sony Grand Wega rear-projection HDTV set. Mr. Dikman had heard the buzz about next-generation DVDs for a couple of years and shelled out $1,000 for a Sony Blu-ray player in November. After watching movies like Paramount Pictures' "Mission Impossible III" and Columbia Pictures' "The Fifth Element" on the new player, he decided that, although the text was crisper on subtitles and there were fewer glitches like blurring, overall the Blu-ray movies didn't look much better than regular DVDs on his Denon player. The Sony player also wouldn't play his audio CDs. He took it back to a Best Buy Co. store last month.

"I was waiting for this night-and-day difference, and I don't feel I got it," says Mr. Dikman, who says he still plans to buy a high-definition DVD player once the players have overcome snafus like the CD issue. Sony says there may be changes in future models, and overall, consumers have responded favorably to the product. "Of course, performance is affected by several factors, including what other components are included in the home theater system, how they are connected to one another and how the content was encoded," a Sony spokesman says.

Anyone who wants to read the whole thing has to go out and buy the paper. ;)

Wow! If these numbers are indeed accurate, then Blu-Ray sales are even more pathetic than I thought. Before the Sony, Panasonic or Pioneer BD players had launched, it was speculated that 10,000 Samsung players had been sold (versus 70,000 Toshiba players) -- and this was months ago! If only another 10,000 players have sold since that time, then that is certainly pathetic.

So the entire hope for the format is a videogame console?!? Who's the genius behind the Blu-Ray launch again? Does anybody doubt that without their exclusive studios BD would have already been an afterthought? It looks to me like the Blu-Ray format could go down in history as the single-biggest bust in consumer electronics history! Sony better PRAY that LG brings the dual-format player to market with sales like these...

ooOoo... some numbers.

I think it'll be good to be able to track how these pan out in the coming months. A new toy invariably comes with desire to purchase some software to take advantage of it... if the experience is good, then more sales to be had, if they are not overwhelmed, then it will slow down... e.g. UMD.

Given there weren't many releases coming up to Christmas 2006, and many more New BD owners... it's only natural that BD software sales surge. If HD-DVD software releases don't start enticing owners to continue to buy software and BD titles start giving lots to choose from, the trend will continue and the gap will grow smaller. BD made a good showing this holiday despite PS3 falling short of shipments. HD-DVD has to have more up its sleeves.

Personally I do hope the HD-DVD addon drive comes to Australia soon. I'll buy it anyway even if LG come out with a dual reader drive in March. If anyone brings a PC BD/HD-DVD ROM drive to the party, then I'll look into upgrading my HTPC for the task. It'll be good to be format neutral. Then there is the PS3... a few games have me wanting to get the console... (MGS4, GT5, Ninja Gaiden Sigma) but I'll probably save those funds for the things I can make time for.. namely Movies.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

The official US numbers on PS3 are at the 850,000 mark, total worldwide, 1.18 million

Okay then - so remind me again why we need to create new methods to allow the fumbling format to surivive? Maybe all Warner really wants/sees with TotalHD is another way to make money and not really the benevolent, necessary solution that is needed?

Let BD be used for great PS3 game discs and PC storage. God bless them on those two fronts. But give HD DVD the rightful movie crown that they've earned as an underdog who has apparently (based on these numbers) delivered to the satisfaction of the majority of movie-only lovers from day 1.

Given this data - IMO, if the studios were smart/fair then they would just pick HD DVD now as the single format of choice and let us all live forever in high-def peace.

Anything else will just prolong things, add confusion, and make all average people naseous.

If those numbers are right and your 1.5:1 lead in software sales for HD DVD for December is right, then it does support that the PS3 is very important. Especially if it started the month of December higher than 1.5:1 and ended up lower on a run rate level.

Your numbers end up at 270,000 vs 25,000 without the PS3, so there is pretty much no way that BD software sales could be even close without the PS3 being significant. If the ratio of players in use was 1.5:1 in HD DVD's favor (I know it doesn't have to be for the software ratio to be there, but this is just an example), then that would mean 155,000 PS3s in use as players. Which would be 20% if the total PS3 count was 775,000.

BTW: I guess I better check. Were those US numbers? That is what I was going by.

--Darin You know, it could also mean that HD DVD movie disc sales numbers were much higher than Blu-ray and we don't know yet.

If the numbers are 270,000 versus 25,000 + 10% of the PS3 say 750,000 number that would equate to 270,000 versus 25% + 75,000 PS3 Blu-ray watchers.

But if only 10% of the PS3 owners are watching Blu-ray, and that's the only Blu-ray player under $699, then thats trouble for Blu-ray. If 10% is high, then even more so. 10% of say 4 million is only 400,000 which would put Blu-ray at a disadvantage.

Oh and the official numbers on the addon are only 42,000 units as well. maybe another 20 since then, but they've been shelf sitting for 3-4 weeks now and not moving in most venues.

Let BD be used for great PS3 game discs and PC storage. God bless them on those two fronts. But give HD DVD the rightful movie crown that they've earned as an underdog who has apparently (based on these numbers) delivered to the satisfaction of the majority of movie-only lovers from day 1.

Earned? Blu-Ray is up on it 5-1 in decks, 5-1 in exclusive studios(unlikely to change at CES either), and all the compression and production problems seem to have been ironed out. Regardless of how you try to spin it, every PS3 can play BR out of the box, and is therefore counted.

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

25K BD standalone sold! Boy would Samsung, LG, Panasonic be pissed with Sony's PS3. This BD cannabalization by PS3 is probably one of the factor LG is going universal.....

Oh and the official numbers on the addon are only 42,000 units as well. maybe another 20 since then, but they've been shelf sitting for 3-4 weeks now and not moving in most venues.

Earned? Blu-Ray is up on it 5-1 in decks, 5-1 in exclusive studios(unlikely to change at CES either), and all the compression and production problems seem to have been ironed out. Regardless of how you try to spin it, every PS3 can play BR out of the box, and is therefore counted. Do you take the time to read the posts above? :eek:

42000 was weeks ago.

This analyst has a WAG at 150,000 Xbox add ons. And 125,000 HD DVD standalones. versus 25,000 stand alone Blu-ray players and whatever percentage of PS3 owners you want to choose that will buy Blu-ray movies.

If you close your eyes and stick your fingers in you ears, you not only won't see things you don't like, you woun't be able to hear them as well.

Notice anytime a mainstream press article expresses a consumers disapointment a Blu-ray player or PS3 is always mentioned as the item that has the disapointing results?

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

This has confirmed what I have suspected all along. HD DVD stand alone players have way outsold BD stand alone players. With out numbers it would also be reasonable to assume HD DVD software has outsold BD software 5:1. I would assume the addons equal the number of PS3 owners that buy BDs.

looks like thedvdwars.com did act as microcosm.

400,000 PS3's was weeks ago also though. Tom Adams - the analyst in question - may or may not know what he is talking about... we just don't know. He could very well be pulling all of his information from public sources that we ourselves have been discussing on these boards over the last couple of months.

Hopefully soon, we get some add-on sales numbers from NPD or someone else.

This has confirmed what I have suspected all along. HD DVD stand alone players have way outsold BD stand alone players. With out numbers it would also be reasonable to assume HD DVD software has outsold BD software 5:1. I would assume the addons equal the number of PS3 owners that buy BDs.

looks like thedvdwars.com did act as microcosm. Good points.

You know, it could also mean that HD DVD movie disc sales numbers were much higher than Blu-ray and we don't know yet.

If the numbers are 270,000 versus 25,000 + 10% of the PS3 say 750,000 number that would equate to 270,000 versus 25% + 75,000 PS3 Blu-ray watchers.

But if only 10% of the PS3 owners are watching Blu-ray, and that's the only Blu-ray player under $699, then thats trouble for Blu-ray. If 10% is high, then even more so. 10% of say 4 million is only 400,000 which would put Blu-ray at a disadvantage.Using your 10% number it would be about 270,000 vs 100,000. Do you believe HD DVD movie disc sales killed Blu-ray movie disc sales at the end of December and now in a way that a 2.7:1 player in use advantage would support? And if 10% is high, then the player advantage would be even more than 2.7:1 there.

--Darin

From 09-23-06
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8499102&&#post8499102


Originally Posted by b2bonez

HD-DVD has been selling around 8,300 players per month, they will be lucky to double or triple that rate for the holidays. b2b


So you are predicting 16,000 to 25,000 for the month of December? I predict it will be far higher. In other words, over 83,000. I'll bookmark this page so we'll see who's right... (if the info is ever publicly released.)

From 09-23-06
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8499102&&#post8499102Good one. As far as predictions, wasn't there a poll where people predicted the number of HD DVD players total? I seem to recall I guessed something like 300k-350k, which looks like it was too high. Might not have been a poll though.

--Darin

Goes to show, HD DVD is indeed the consumer's format of choice.

This has confirmed what I have suspected all along. HD DVD stand alone players have way outsold BD stand alone players.


Indeed. And this is despite the marketing onslaught of Blu-Ray, the exclusive studio support, the favoritism displayed at every major retailer in the country, the total lack of support from CC, and the end-cap domination at BB! Care to guess how long Blu-Ray would have lasted without any of these advantages?

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

I wonder if anyone will be big enough to apologize to you after calling you a liar about the numbers your reps gave to you? Sounds like you were right on. I've heard some choice words in the last month when I predicted year end sales of the 360 drive to be around 150-250K world wide.

I actually thought there were more standalone BD players sold by now. Wow, that is really suprising. Then again, $1K is alot to spend on a player especially when the PS3 is available (sorta). This is going to be an interesting year.

FIXED
"Wall Street Journal Article with Standalone numbers"

"
BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).
"

I'm confused by some of the comments here I guess. Isn't 25,000 vs 120,000 about the same rate per month. Given the large price differential in stand-alones, I was surprised these numbers were so close per month; Some of the comments above though have made me re-think I must have something wrong....

ken

"Wall Street Journal Article with Standalone numbers"

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released

Blu-Ray already ahead, I see, after starting later.

This appears to be the whole article, in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07004/751258-96.stm

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released

I bought a PS3 as a BD player too, but I would never presume to know how many people are also using in that capacity. The only way answer that question is to wait on some BD software sales figures. You can be sure that, where the HD DVD numbers are concerned that 100% will be used to watch movies. We'll see.

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released
We're all big boys and girls and know what stand-alone player means. And I'm one of those people (who bought a PS3 as a stand-alone) you referred to. I have looked at thedvdwars.com, looks like that spike from yesterday has cooled somewhat, check the last 7 days.

It's absolutely hilarious that HD-DVD supporters want to compare cheaper HD-DVD standalone player sales against much more expensive BD "standalone" player sales while not counting the highest volume selling high def player in the world! :D

Amazing.

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released

No, sorry. People who bought PS3 for standalone players dont represent a number big enough to even talk about. Less then 1%.

Yes gamers buy movies. Im a gamer and I buy movies, but for my stand alone player.

Take the xbox 360. If they sold $140,00 addons that represents 1.5% of the 360 owners. There is no reason to think a PS3 owner is much different then a 360 owner when it comes to using thier console for movies. Yes there are acceptions to the rule but that doesnt mean the rule isnt true.

Its been proven that BD owners have the same Amazon buying habbits as HD DVD owners, its just that HD DVD sells more then BD. NOT because BD owners have banned together magically to shop somewhere else.<---The same example is true with PS3 and 306 owners. Its not like people who own PS3s are much more likely to buy movies then people who own 360s.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released

Using your "total" numbers, there are more than 3x more BD players out there than HD DVD players. And looking at DVDwars (as you suggest) shows that HD DVD still, today, has the lead in sales rankings -- as it has pretty much every day since BD's launch.

This is a good thing?

If those hardware numbers are accurate, and HD DVD is still leading in movie sales, BD-exclusive companies should be terrified.

I would have thought BD would have sold more than 25,000 players. The other CE companies must be pretty excited with this news...

Unfortunately, I have very little confidence in numbers like these. I want to see how they arrived at those numbers. I want to see the homework. Just because some guy named Tom Adams has a company called Adams Media Research doesn't mean we should automatically give him credability. No offense to him (if he is reading this), but we have no idea who he is or how he arrives at those figures.

I'm not saying that the numbers are wrong, I'm only saying that we shouldn't just accept them as proven fact until we get other data points.

Blu-Ray already ahead, I see, after starting later.

This appears to be the whole article, in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07004/751258-96.stm

The only possibly positive take on BD from that article is:

"Because the Blu-ray-capable PS3 game consoles came to market only late last year, and many buyers are using them primarily for games, HD-DVD movies were far outselling Blu-ray titles, Mr. Adams says. Before the PS3s were shipped, HD-DVD titles were outselling Blu-Ray titles by two to one, he estimates, although the difference has narrowed considerably in recent weeks."

I don't know, kinda sketchy to try and make this look all shiney and happy for BD. But hey, the PS3 has got to be helping.

I'm only saying that we shouldn't just accept them as proven fact until we get other data points.
I thought that was what AVS HD/BD threads were all about ;)

That quote from Adam Powes just highlights his ignorance on the matter though. Most buyers were using it to sell on eBay, not play games. Too little is known right now post-eBay meltdown to know what the attach rate is for PS3 on either the games front or the movie front; but I do know that at the time that 400k sold would have been valid, the PS3 had a PS3 game attach rate of less than one game per console. I think that gives an indication of the effect the scalpers have had in retarding the market.

It'll take some time before we get more 'real world' numbers on the matter.

It's absolutely hilarious that HD-DVD supporters want to compare cheaper HD-DVD standalone player sales against much more expensive BD "standalone" player sales while not counting the highest volume selling high def player in the world! :D

Amazing.

I think any HD DVD supporter who discounts the PS3 COMPLETELY is not living in the real world...and I think any Blu-ray supporter who counts EACH and EVERY PS3 is also living in fantasy land. It can be debated as to the % to use, but only software sales over a period of time (more than just initial spikes) will tell. Also, many would argue this forum has a demographic that will have a higher % of PS3 owners purchasing as Blu-ray players than the general public.

It's absolutely hilarious that HD-DVD supporters want to compare cheaper HD-DVD standalone player sales against much more expensive BD "standalone" player sales while not counting the highest volume selling high def player in the world! :D

Amazing.


It's absolutely hilarious that BD supporters can't differentiate between an HD player and a videogame that happens to play BD movies as a secondary function if the buyer so chooses.

If Blu-Ray is outselling HD-DVD 3:1 as you propose, then why aren't software sales representing this discrepancy as well? To somehow take this article as positive news for BD is ridiculous.

well if it turns out these numbers are true the bd only studios better smarten up and look at reality and give some bd movies in hd-dvd!!

You PS3 freaks don't seem to understand that every console sold as a BR player only is a major loss to Sony. They depend on game sales to recoup costs on the console since they lose so much money on each. Something you should all know by now.

So keep bragging about how important the PS3 sales are to BR as a standalone player and how smart you are for buying it. At least until they can't afford to build them any more because it's being used for movies instead of games by people like you.

I'll set back and enjoy a great flick on a great standalone player that actually makes a profit for the company that sells it.

It's absolutely hilarious that HD-DVD supporters want to compare cheaper HD-DVD standalone player sales against much more expensive BD "standalone" player sales while not counting the highest volume selling high def player in the world! :D

Amazing.


Be Reasonable!!

OK I will dumb it down for you. The number of people who bought a piece of electronic equipment in order to watch a HD movie is greater for HD DVD then BD.

Some times I honestly think if Sony themselfs had a press conference admitting BD sales were much lower then HD DVD people on this forum would still be making desperate, outlandish and sad posts like this.

It's absolutely hilarious that BD supporters can't differentiate between an HD player and a videogame that happens to play BD movies as a secondary function if the buyer so chooses.

If Blu-Ray is outselling HD-DVD 3:1 as you propose, then why aren't software sales representing this discrepancy as well? To somehow take this article as positive news for BD is ridiculous.

You have a point. At the end of the day, the really important data is about the number of disc sold in their respective format.....No thanks to WB and their hybrid disc this data might not be so clear in the future.

I alluded to combined BD hardware sales being dominated by HDDVD in another thread, but i honestly believe that 25,000 standalone units is off.

My estimates would put the number at closer to 35,000-40,000 sold by 31st December 2006.

Still a far cry from the 120,000 HD DVD units (which personally i believe is a tad high - i would have expected 90,00-100,000).

That quote from Adam Powes just highlights his ignorance on the matter though. Most buyers were using it to sell on eBay, not play games. Too little is known right now post-eBay meltdown to know what the attach rate is for PS3 on either the games front or the movie front; but I do know that at the time that 400k sold would have been valid, the PS3 had a PS3 game attach rate of less than one game per console. I think that gives an indication of the effect the scalpers have had in retarding the market.

It'll take some time before we get more 'real world' numbers on the matter.

More time. Gee, does that sound familiar! More time doesn't seem to be helping does it. You can already buy them at just about any place you want and only 6 weeks after launch. Yea, that is great news isn't it.

Weren't you saying that because all the games were setting under the Christmas trees the sale s are slow? Now it's, what again?

Maybe, just maybe, it's because all the fanboys, such as yourself, have bought the early units and now the smart consumers are not interested.

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

this wall street journal article is loaded with inaccuracies and old information. "hi im john from john's research, and i declare these numbers!". WSJ should quote nextgenwars next as an accurate source.

Using your "total" numbers, there are more than 3x more BD players out there than HD DVD players. And looking at DVDwars (as you suggest) shows that HD DVD still, today, has the lead in sales rankings -- as it has pretty much every day since BD's launch.

This is a good thing?

If those hardware numbers are accurate, and HD DVD is still leading in movie sales, BD-exclusive companies should be terrified.

I hope the Home Entertainment Heads at FOX, Disney, MGM and Lionsgate are fired and loose everything they have for this crime against the consumer! Sony will just wilt away and die and that is sad because they employee thousands world wide. I bet the CEO doesn't care one bit!

More time. Gee, does that sound familiar! More time doesn't seem to be helping does it. You can already buy them at just about any place you want and only 6 weeks after launch. Yea, that is great news isn't it.

Uh, ok. We don't have to wait - let's start now. BD sales are climbing sharply; that's all PS3. I agree with the thinking in this thread that hardware sales, ultimately, don't matter compared to software sales. So... let's just keep watching the software sales going forward. I certainly don't think there's any "just wait" qualifiers that need to be applied to BD's performance of late.

Not only that, but if HD DVD hardliners are going to keep tossing 'just wait' to the wind - even when it is the only reasonable option given a data set - I don't want to hear any talk of studios switching sides. Apparently it's only the absolute present that's greenlighted for debate; in this context, well... looks like Blu-ray studio and manufacturer support crushes HD DVDs. Eh? Or is it different when we're waiting for studios?

Weren't you saying that because all the games were setting under the Christmas trees the sale s are slow? Now it's, what again?

Nope, that wasn't me.

Maybe, just maybe, it's because all the fanboys, such as yourself, have bought the early units and now the smart consumers are not interested.

Riiiiiight. You've got my inadequacies all figured out.

I alluded to combined BD hardware sales being dominated by HDDVD in another thread, but i honestly believe that 25,000 standalone units is off.

My estimates would put the number at closer to 35,000-40,000 sold by 31st December 2006.

Still a far cry from the 120,000 HD DVD units (which personally i believe is a tad high - i would have expected 90,00-100,000).

And your estimates are based on what?

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

this wall street journal article is loaded with inaccuracies and old information. "hi im john from john's research, and i declare these numbers!". WSJ should quote nextgenwars next as an accurate source.

A case of pots & kettle? You started with data of 1.5m from "accredited" research firm. Link? And where did the 10m in 2008 forecast come from?

No, sorry. People who bought PS3 for standalone players dont represent a number big enough to even talk about. Less then 1%.

Yes gamers buy movies. Im a gamer and I buy movies, but for my stand alone player.

Take the xbox 360. If they sold 140,000 addons that represents 1.5% of the 360 owners. There is no reason to think a PS3 owner is much different then a 360 owner when it comes to using thier console for movies. Yes there are acceptions to the rule but that doesnt mean the rule isnt true.

Its been proven that BD owners have the same Amazon buying habbits as HD DVD owners, its just that HD DVD sells more then BD. NOT because BD owners have banned together magically to shop somewhere else.<---The same example is true with PS3 and 306 owners. Its not like people who own PS3s are much more likely to buy movies then people who own 360s.Okay, so if you believe that 1.5% of PS3s are being used for watching movies, then how do you explain how much closer things have gotten on Amazon and how Blu-ray looks to be ahead for software sales recently on buy.com and dvdempire? If HD DVD has 270,000 players in use and less than 50,000 standalone Blu-ray players have been sold, then where are those sales for Blu-ray coming from? 1.5% of one million PS3s would only be 15,000. Do you disagree with the 270,000 HD DVD players, a different number, or do you believe that Blu-ray owners are buying way more movies right now per system than HD DVD owners?

--Darin

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

this wall street journal article is loaded with inaccuracies and old information. "hi im john from john's research, and i declare these numbers!". WSJ should quote nextgenwars next as an accurate source.

Yeah man, so true and it was only published in that rag that isn't worth the paper it's printed on. What was it? The Sun? The Enquirer? Oh yeah, it was the Wallstreet Journal...one of the most respected financial publications in the United States.

I own a PS3, but I am not fooling myself...or anyone on AVS.

That quote from Adam Powes just highlights his ignorance on the matter though. Most buyers were using it to sell on eBay, not play games. Too little is known right now post-eBay meltdown to know what the attach rate is for PS3 on either the games front or the movie front; but I do know that at the time that 400k sold would have been valid, the PS3 had a PS3 game attach rate of less than one game per console. I think that gives an indication of the effect the scalpers have had in retarding the market.

It'll take some time before we get more 'real world' numbers on the matter.

Most buyers? As in 50% + ? :confused:

I don't know how many listings were duplicates, but 10-20% max would seem to be a better guess. A bigger influence could have been Christmas present sales sitting under the tree, or maybe, the buyers ran out of money to buy more than 1 game after spending $600 for a PS3 in the middle of other Christmas shopping.

Besides, all the ebay/auction buyers were presumably buying to use either right away or as a gift, although they were more likely than retail buyers to run out of money after seeing some of the sale prices :)

Okay, so if you believe that 1.5% of PS3s are being used for watching movies, then how do you explain how much closer things have gotten on Amazon and how Blu-ray looks to be ahead for software sales recently on buy.com and dvdempire? If HD DVD has 270,000 players in use and less than 50,000 standalone Blu-ray players have been sold, then where are those sales for Blu-ray coming from? 1.5% of one million PS3s would only be 15,000. Do you disagree with the 270,000 HD DVD players, a different number, or do you believe that Blu-ray owners are buying way more movies right now per system than HD DVD owners?

--Darin

Honest truth? There aren't any HD DVDs that are worth buying right now. But, personally, I can't force myself to buy a BD movie right now either. There just isn't anything killer out there. 07 is looking up though!

Most buyers? As in 50% + ? :confused:

Yes, that's what I'm saying. In fact, well over 50% at launch - I'd say 95%.

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

this wall street journal article is loaded with inaccuracies and old information. "hi im john from john's research, and i declare these numbers!". WSJ should quote nextgenwars next as an accurate source.
Yeah man, so true and it was only published in that rag that isn't worth the paper it's printed on. What was it? The Sun? The Enquirer? Oh yeah, it was the Wallstreet Journal...one of the most respected financial publications in the United States.

I own a PS3, but I am not fooling myself...or anyone on AVS.

Just the reason Dink is on my ignore list...I just wish the ignore list feature would include blocking their quoted posts in other posts also.

Just the reason Dink is on my ignore list...I just wish the ignore list feature would include blocking their quoted posts in other posts also.

That's why I stopped ignoring him...and others ;)

I alluded to combined BD hardware sales being dominated by HDDVD in another thread, but i honestly believe that 25,000 standalone units is off.

My estimates would put the number at closer to 35,000-40,000 sold by 31st December 2006.

Yes indeed. The power of the BD consortium has packed the shelves and storerooms of stores with their players and blown by the 25,000 mark. :D

Okay, so if you believe that 1.5% of PS3s are being used for watching movies, then how do you explain how much closer things have gotten on Amazon and how Blu-ray looks to be ahead for software sales recently on buy.com and dvdempire? If HD DVD has 270,000 players in use and less than 50,000 standalone Blu-ray players have been sold, then where are those sales for Blu-ray coming from? 1.5% of one million PS3s would only be 15,000. Do you disagree with the 270,000 HD DVD players, a different number, or do you believe that Blu-ray owners are buying way more movies right now per system than HD DVD owners?

--Darin

The big question is how representative is the stats at Amazon, Buy.com & Dvdempire when it comes to the final disc sold figures?

Wow the plant comes out to tell us about 1.5M players!!!

Facts:

Early adopters are not the commmon consumer.

This is true for both formats and for CONSOLE MACHINES.

The majority of early PS3 buyers are the type to use the BD function.

Studios know this and they also know that as of mid December official numbers were around 400,000 PS3s in the US, 150,000 addons, 120,000 HD-DVD players, and 25,000 BD players. These numbers are off by anywhere up to 20%.

Post Holiday rush is not yet in numbers wise. When it's all done about 850,000 PS3s sold in the US will be the number, approximately 10,000 more BD players and about 30,000 more HD-DVD players, and 50,000 more addons.

I am not surprised by these numbers at all. Back in the late summer, early fall, I posted in many threads that I believed the number was in the 5:1 range for players (at the time it was stand alones only). Of course I was getting hammered by the blu-ray fan boys for not being able to back up my numbers.
But I will admit that I am a bit surprised by the seeming attach rates of blu-ray software to the PS3. It seems as though it could be as high as 10%.
Now if Toshiba drops the floor on standalones to say $300-400 (which I expect an announcement at CES), we can expect a wider, say 10:1 favoring of HD DVD stand alones.

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

1.5 million BD 'users'. No way. Again, if you're including the PS3 in that figure, you don't know how many of those are being used for BD. I'm getting really tired of typing that.

Can you provide some links to your data sources?

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

Forgive me if I have my doubts. We heard that they were going to leave HD DVD "in the dust" in November when the PS3 came out. Then, when that didn't happen, it was because the units were sitting under Christmas trees, so it would happen in December. Now, it's 'early next year' after the scalpers return their units to the stores (or whatever).

Sure, BD sales have increased. Given the numbers of hardware units out there, that isn't too surprising. But it appears (given the EXTREMELY limited data we have access to) that HD DVD is still leading in software sales. Once again, forgive me if I'm skeptical about HD DVD being left in the dust... especially since it has been in the lead for the past 6 months.

A very interesting read at ABC news and tech site:

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=2768596&page=1

Also looked at the Japanese Media Create research site Ron refers to. Looks like Nintendo had the best Merry Christmas of all, at least in Japan.

John

Wow the plant comes out to tell us about 1.5M players!!!

Facts:

Early adopters are not the commmon consumer.

This is true for both formats and for CONSOLE MACHINES.

The majority of early PS3 buyers are the type to use the BD function.

Studios know this and they also know that as of mid December official numbers were around 400,000 PS3s in the US, 150,000 addons, 120,000 HD-DVD players, and 25,000 BD players. These numbers are off by anywhere up to 20%.

Post Holiday rush is not yet in numbers wise. When it's all done about 850,000 PS3s sold in the US will be the number, approximately 10,000 more BD players and about 30,000 more HD-DVD players, and 50,000 more addons.Just to be clear, is your position also still that HD DVD outsold Blu-ray for software at a rate of about 1.5:1 for December?

That is with about 350k HD DVD players, 35k standalone HD DVD players, and 850k PS3s.

Also, to be clear, is your position that a higher percentage of PS3 owners are using it for Blu-ray movies today than will be the case a year from now after movies like, "Casino Royale" and "Spiderman 3" should have come out?

--Darin

He posted the famous thread of "which should I buy?" Then claimed he had been to an extremely high number of stores, had horrible HD-DVD experiences and then bought a BD player that was working wonderfully. Ofcourse the time frame between posts made his story totally 100% impossible. Then he voted in a poll that he owned every BD player on the market, without knowing that we could see everyone who voted and their selections.

Ah, yes... I remember both of those. Just didn't recognize the name.

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

this wall street journal article is loaded with inaccuracies and old information. "hi im john from john's research, and i declare these numbers!". WSJ should quote nextgenwars next as an accurate source.


Complete and utter presumptuous drivel in your post. These are concrete figures that show unbelievably underwhelming sales for Blu-Ray players. The PS3 launch has been a disaster -- units sitting on shelves all over the country only 6 weeks after the launch. And this WITH very low launch numbers that have been cut back numerous times.

And if you think 10 million PS3's is a lock by 2008 (or anytime for that matter), then I believe you are dead wrong. The price of this console is quickly killing its sales. Sony will struggle to move several million of these machines at their high prices, continuing to lose market share to the 360 and Wii. Look at the numerous articles slamming the PS3 launch. And you also don't seem to grasp the fact that the PS3's main function is a videogame (PLAYstation), which doesn't necessarily equate into BD movie purchases. If you hadn't heard, there's also an HD-DVD add-on for the 360 which ONLY plays movies -- and is selling very well amongst the 10,000,000+ 360 owners.

This is fantastic news, good to see Blu-ray is finally coming out on top. Hopefully Universal sees the writing on the wall here and puts an end to this format war for good.

And your estimates are based on what?

Known manufacturing quantities of HD DVD players vs HDVD movie disc attach rates compared to BD movie disc sales and attach rates.

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

Worldwide? Yes i would agree with those figures, but only because the sony ships their PS3 games on BD media.

Wow the plant comes out to tell us about 1.5M players!!!

Facts:

Early adopters are not the commmon consumer.

This is true for both formats and for CONSOLE MACHINES.

The majority of early PS3 buyers are the type to use the BD function.

Studios know this and they also know that as of mid December official numbers were around 400,000 PS3s in the US, 150,000 addons, 120,000 HD-DVD players, and 25,000 BD players. These numbers are off by anywhere up to 20%.

Post Holiday rush is not yet in numbers wise. When it's all done about 850,000 PS3s sold in the US will be the number, approximately 10,000 more BD players and about 30,000 more HD-DVD players, and 50,000 more addons.

Once again, I can totally dig your numbers. At the very least, a great estimation, but I am just waiting to see the usual suspects chime in and slam you. Good luck!

The only mystery is how big a boost in BD software sales will the PS3 generate in the long/short term?

It's absolutely hilarious that BD supporters can't differentiate between an HD player and a videogame that happens to play BD movies as a secondary function if the buyer so chooses.

You're picking nits. That's like saying that DVD-ROM equipped computers don't count because they can also read data discs.

You simply don't like the fact that if only 1 in 5 PS3 owners is buying alot of BR movies, it puts it directly on par, and that more people will buy PS3s than BR and HD standalones combined in the next year.


I hope the Home Entertainment Heads at FOX, Disney, MGM and Lionsgate are fired and loose everything they have for this crime against the consumer! Sony will just wilt away and die and that is sad because they employee thousands world wide. I bet the CEO doesn't care one bit!

What crime against the consumer? Toshiba is sitting there alone, keeping you from getting big software and cheaper players nearly as quickly because they chose to be sticks in the mud. Blame the proper parties, not your personal bias.

Go to Best Buy, look at the racks. Both formats are moving, but BR much more quickly. It's got more shelf space, and more discs are gone per capita. That's only going to climb as more people run out of games to play and buy the units. This will especially be true if the rumor of a $400 BR player at CES comes about. Hell, even the crappy Samsung decks are moving. Best Buy had a stack of them under the BR dispaly with the new 40" 1080p set(about a dozen) and there was one left on monday. The spots where the BDP-1 was (half dozen I saw) were gone, and so were the Toshiba A2s(4 at last count).

Honest truth? There aren't any HD DVDs that are worth buying right now

Serenity, Riddick(I don't care what people think, it's great), and especially Adventures of Robin Hood. I hope the BR version is out when I get a deck, because that's a #1 favorite. The DVD is gorgeous, the HD version is supposedly eyepopping technicolor tight-filled glory.

The majority of early PS3 buyers are the type to use the BD function.


Yup, geeks with money to burn. I'd say the vast majority of those who buy before the summmer will be similarly inclined, maybe even up through the first pricedrop, which will have to be next fall. Sony's in huge trouble in the gaming market if they can't shave $100 off by then

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

So what do the innumerable CE manufacturers lined up behind BD think of this ? :p

This is fantastic news, good to see Blu-ray is finally coming out on top.

How did you come up with this gem?

Let's cut through the BS of the PS3 part of this. In order for the WSJ numbers to be even close on tbe Blu-ray side, at least 80% of the PS3's sold so far would have to be used as BD players. And to validate that, you need attach sales figures for BD movies to show that. You can't arbitrarily come up with a number and say that's the percentage.

You need movie sale numbers. Otherwise, number of PS3's out there means nothing.


So what do the innumerable CE manufacturers lined up behind BD think of this ?

If I were them, I'd be a slight bit pissed off that Toshiba is outselling all of them except for the PS3, and we're already in the middle of that whole debate.

Let's cut through the BS of the PS3 part of this. In order for the WSJ numbers to be even close on tbe Blu-ray side, at least 80% of the PS3's sold so far would have to be used as BD players.Why do you claim that?

--Darin

And if you think 10 million PS3's is a lock by 2008 (or anytime for that matter), then I believe you are dead wrong. The price of this console is quickly killing its sales.

True. I think the price of PS3 and even 360 is a drag on their sales. PS3 might hit 10M someday - but probably they will have to bring down their price (or it will take a while).

The other CE companies cannot be happy with the performance of their BD standalones. That is for sure.

OMG .. the combined sales figure of standalone BD players is just 25K since June 2006 ... OMG OMG OMG .. :D

Good news for Blu-ray

IF ~20% of respondents in Europe intend to buy the PS3 for watching movies (see info above) while 1-2% of 360 owners have bought the add-on, I would say Sony's strategy is the better one, wrt the format war.

I feel MS is not fully committed to HD-dvd, otherwise they should aim to release/announce a 360 with a hd-dvd drive which plays HD movies & has hdmi but games will still be released on DVDs only, of course.

If toshiba is selling the HD drive to MS for cost or below, then MS effectively has it easy. The gain they have from HD-dvd is HDi and the hope that BD-J dies. If HD-dvd dies, MS has not lost much. But, with more support, they stand to lose a good deal more but they stand to gain only a little more. BD-J is here to stay anyways whether HDi is around or not. Nothing stops Universal from using VC1 even if HD-dvd dies.

Not a knock on MS, just an apparaisal. I do think the 360 with HD drive and HDMI will help tremendously.

Known manufacturing quantities of HD DVD players vs HDVD movie disc attach rates compared to BD movie disc sales and attach rates.



Worldwide? Yes i would agree with those figures, but only because the sony ships their PS3 games on BD media.

Ahh! So your the one person on the planet that has access to this information. Congratulations! Please tell us more.

What crime against the consumer? Toshiba is sitting there alone, keeping you from getting big software and cheaper players nearly as quickly because they chose to be sticks in the mud. Blame the proper parties, not your personal bias.

LOL, wait a second. Are you telling us that Toshiba is now responsible for Blu-ray not having cheaper standalone players? What happened to all the BD CE manufacturers competing with each other and driving prices down.

And if you're referring to HD DVD, Toshiba has cheap players on the market already, and even half that price if you own an Xbox 360. So I don't know what kind of point you're trying to make.


Go to Best Buy, look at the racks. Both formats are moving, but BR much more quickly. It's got more shelf space, and more discs are gone per capita.

Ok, enough of this bullshit. Either post Best Buy sales figures, or quit posting this FUD. For every store you can mention that is that way, I can mention 2 in my area that are the opposite, and give equal shelf space to both. You can't take one score and pretend you're in a vacumn talking about the entire country. Sorry, real life doesn't work that way.


That's only going to climb as more people run out of games to play and buy the units.

If that is the case, Sony is in some deep trouble with the Playstation 3. I'm pretty sure they want to sell games. Otherwise the Xbox 360 is going to continue to roll over them month after month.


This will especially be true if the rumor of a $400 BR player at CES comes about.

Unless Toshiba announces a $299 player, or another CE manufactuer jumps on board with one.


Yup, geeks with money to burn. I'd say the vast majority of those who buy before the summmer will be similarly inclined, maybe even up through the first pricedrop, which will have to be next fall. Sony's in huge trouble in the gaming market if they can't shave $100 off by then

It's not just the geeks with money to burn. I keep saying if Microsoft was smart, they would tag every one of their Xbox Live Marketplace movie downloads with an advertisement for the HD DVD player. If people were shown a $200 product that they could then own the movie they just rented, sales of that drive would be even higher than they are.


Why do you claim that?

Because with all due respect to the WSJ article, the Playstation 3 is still a game machine that happens to be able to play Blu-ray discs, the same way that the Playstation 2 and Xbox happened to be able to play movies as well. It's primary purpose is to play video games, which is why Sony built it and put the Playstation name on it, added controllers, and showed it off at E3.

You simply can't say (not you specifically darin :)) that Blu-ray has X number of players because the PS3 is out there. You need to show that people are buying movies to watch on it.

I would liken it to the same article using an inflated number people that owned DVD players because they were adding in Xbox 360, Playstation 2, and anyone who owned a PC with a DVD drive in it.

Serenity, Riddick(I don't care what people think, it's great), and especially Adventures of Robin Hood. I hope the BR version is out when I get a deck, because that's a #1 favorite. The DVD is gorgeous, the HD version is supposedly eyepopping technicolor tight-filled glory.

And how long have those movies been out? Do you expect us to keep buying the same movies over and over again? Remember, amazon sales data is representative of relative figures. HD DVD and BD sales are shown in comparison to DVD, which means HD DVD sales stayed relatively constant and BD had a slight spike.

I really think the PS3 gave BD sales a short term, holiday season spike...spike. And I would venture a guess that if total HD DVD software sales were compared to total BD sofware sales the ratio would be 4:1 or 5:1 in favor of HD DVD, but that could all change. We'll see.

Trojan Horse crashes & burns!
Remember last fall when Sony said they would ship 8 million PS3 in '06?
Then Sony in the winter said 4 million to shipped in '06?
As the holidays came 2 million in '06 became the call.
Of coarse upon release, it turned into what, 1/2 million or a little more were shipped in '06.

It's not all good news for HD DVD. Combining both waring HiDef formats, software sales totaled less than one percent of SD DVD;s for '06.

Bring on CES!
And some GREAT news for HD Disc!!!

Because with all due respect to the WSJ article, the Playstation 3 is still a game machine that happens to be able to play Blu-ray discs, the same way that the Playstation 2 and Xbox happened to be able to play movies as well. It's primary purpose is to play video games, which is why Sony built it and put the Playstation name on it, added controllers, and showed it off at E3.

You simply can't say (not you specifically darin :)) that Blu-ray has X number of players because the PS3 is out there. You need to show that people are buying movies to watch on it.

I would liken it to the same article using an inflated number people that owned DVD players because they were adding in Xbox 360, Playstation 2, and anyone who owned a PC with a DVD drive in it.I don't remember seeing anything about the WSJ article claiming a certain number of players in use (only how many machines were out there), but maybe it was there (I didn't read the article myself). I think we agree that the number used for movies won't be 100% and won't be 0%. But I think we can get a general ballpark if we can get a good idea of how movies sales are going and then we can refine those as more accurate numbers come in. tsd2005 said before that HD DVD would lead Blu-ray by about 1.5:1 for software sales for December from Videoscan. If that number holds and his numbers about standalone players and the XBOX360 hold (350k vs 35k), then something would have to account for the software sales ratio being so much different than that player ratio not counting the PS3.

--Darin

I sold about 2.65% of the total US HD DVD player sales volume.

-Robert

-
Oh I almost forgot...everybody say it with me now...
BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons)....GOOD NEWS FOR BLU-RAY! GOOD NEWS FOR BLU-RAY! WOO-HOO! YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY, BLU-RAY!!!!! :D

I sold about 2.65% of the total US HD DVD player sales volume.

-Robert


we need you in every BB to push the sales of HD DVD players (when they are widely available) ... so anyone knows a corporation that does cloning ? LOL

Why are people so delusional that they won't accept that HD DVD is trouncing BD where it counts: stand-alone players. CE support will evaporate if 25K is something to get excited about. Toshiba is killing them all and I for one, welcome those that think the PS3 will be their saviour. It ain't gonna happen. Those that buy stand-alones will dedicate more money to buying movies because that is the ONLY reason to buy a HD DVD player.

There are 270,000 (+) HD DVD owners that will only buy HD DVDs with their purchase. There are 1 million BD owners of which 2.5% are only gonna buy BD movies. The other 97.5% will buy a mix, none at all, or only BDs depending on why they bought a PS3. Those that think that the PS3 is still going strong need to do some shopping this weekend, there are plenty of lonely PS3s that are being ignored post-christmas. There is a freakin' website dedicated to people trying (in vain) to trade their PS3s for Wiis. 600<250.

HD DVD is doing well. BD certainly has its outs but if this was a game of poker, BD went all in against some strong pockets...

What people arent going to be able to count and dont realize is even if the PS3 is used by about 10 to 15% of people regularly that still leaves close to a million now and soon to be many more that still have that option and will probably use it at some point. Even if it is 5 times a year that is still added sales for Blu Ray. If nothing Changes and the Spiderman movies and Pirates Movies both come exclusively to Blu Ray (Probably near April or May to coincide with the 3rd movie of each series) Then your random PS3 gamer might pick up these titles. Or they might want Alien Vs Predator or one of many other exclusive BD titles. They dont have to buy 2-3 titles a week like some of us but that fact there are going to be many more exclusive BD titles (unless some thing major happens) gives these gamers many, many options and will definitely help BD sales.

I bought a PS3 for BR only, and I know many recently who bought it for the same function (which on one side hurts sony as they make their money off game sales). On the other side however there are many more systems out there who arent using it for movies, but for gaming only. Yeah they may buy one or two movies to try it out at first, like people did with the PSP ( I know I did) but after a while they bought the thing to game on, or they use the included cable, because they dont know HDMI from MCI and say "dosnt look any different to me".

Don't get me wrong. I was hesistant about the PS3 as a BR player. However i have had it almost a week now, and cant recommend it for BR playback enough. No matter how goodl the PS3 is selling as a system, the other CE manufacturers have to look at that low stand alone number are for now 4 major manufacturers (5 if you count Phillips), and wonder what the hell is going on. All the major chains have BR players on the end caps. Most have more then one player set up. They are in the ad's every week. That's a very low number even if the players are expensive

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies

Boy, this analysis is weak. But let's go with the flow. Ok, Blu-ray has a huge install base advantage, as you say. Then if I'm a studio, I say "HD DVD has more sales even though Blu-ray has over 3x as many players! I say Blu-ray is obviously a no-go. Eventually, everyone will have cheap stand-alone players, and the PS3 will not be a major factor in determining disc sales. So, I want the format that has over 3x the attach rate per player, and that's HD DVD". See how your analysis falls to shreads as you try to make what you think is a pro-Blu-ray argument? Now the fact is that my analysis is wrong simply because yours is wrong, and I'm basing mine on yours. You CAN NOT compare the HD DVD install base with the Blu-ray install base by adding PS3's because the PS3 installs have not been weighted for the attach rate. No one really knows what the attach rate of a gaming console relative to a stand-alone player should be, but it obviously is not 1:1. So, in summary, to include PS3's in the calculation of the Blu-ray install base, without any weighting is intellectually dishonest and frankly borders on propaganda. Buit like I said, in the beginning, if you want to go with the argument, you're gonna lose anyway.

What people arent going to be able to count and dont realize is even if the PS3 is used by about 10 to 15% of people regularly that still leaves close to a million now

Because it doesn't?? 15% at best of PS3's would be a rough estimate of 142.500 if we're going by NPD's 950k number. Since we know the NPD is a lower estimate than actual numbers, you might be able to say 150,000. That's at 15%, your highest number.

Tell me how that plus 25,000 comes close to a million again??


I don't remember seeing anything about the WSJ article claiming a certain number of players in use (only how many machines were out there), but maybe it was there (I didn't read the article myself).

The quote was: "Another 400,000 consumers have Blu-ray because they bought a Sony PS3 game console."

The assumption being at the time of the article, those many PS3's made the Blu-ray population higher. The writer was assuming a 100% usage rate. That's really all I was saying. You and I are in agreement we really need to see some attach rates for movie sales.

Why are people so delusional that they won't accept that HD DVD is trouncing BD where it counts: stand-alone players. CE support will evaporate if 25K is something to get excited about. Toshiba is killing them all and I for one, welcome those that think the PS3 will be their saviour. It ain't gonna happen. Those that buy stand-alones will dedicate more money to buying movies because that is the ONLY reason to buy a HD DVD player.Of course they will on average. That should be as obvious as that if there are more of the others then they don't have to average as high to end up with a higher total. Both have to be taken into account.
There are 270,000 (+) HD DVD owners that will only buy HD DVDs with their purchase. There are 1 million BD owners of which 2.5% are only gonna buy BD movies. The other 97.5% will buy a mix, none at all, or only BDs depending on why they bought a PS3.If you think that HD DVD has close a 10:1 advantage in players not counting the PS3, then do you think the software sales on a run rate basis on HD DVD are trouncing Blu-ray, that software sales to PS3 owners are making up most of the gap, or something else? If the PS3 isn't contributing much to software sales, then the sales gap on a run rate basis should be way more in favor of HD DVD than the 1.5:1 that tsd2005 mentioned he thought it would be for the month of December (where it could have even ended the month closer than that).

It just seems like some people want to claim the PS3 isn't contributing much and that not many standalone Blu-ray players have been sold (which I pretty much agree with). Well, if that is the case then HD DVD software sales should be trouncing Blu-ray software sales today, and not just sales from months ago being way better.

--Darin

Boy, this analysis is weak. But let's go with the flow. Ok, Blu-ray has a huge install base advantage, as you say. Then if I'm a studio, I say "HD DVD has more sales even though Blu-ray has over 3x as many players! I say Blu-ray is obviously a no-go. Eventually, everyone will have cheap stand-alone players, and the PS3 will not be a major factor in determining disc sales. So, I want the format that has over 3x the attach rate per player, and that's HD DVD". See how your analysis falls to shreads as you try to make what you think is a pro-Blu-ray argument? Now the fact is that my analysis is wrong simply because yours is wrong, and I'm basing mine on yours. You CAN NOT compare the HD DVD install base with the Blu-ray install base by adding PS3's because the PS3 installs have not been weighted for the attach rate. No one really knows what the attach rate of a gaming console relative to a stand-alone player should be, but it obviously is not 1:1. So, in summary, to include PS3's in the calculation of the Blu-ray install base, without any weighting is intellectually dishonest and frankly borders on propaganda. Buit like I said, in the beginning, if you want to go with the argument, you're gonna lose anyway.

We are about a 150 or so titles in with both formats. Most Huge monster titles havent been released with the exception that Universal has released 14 of its top 20 titles from the last 4 years. Im not arguing that everyone is gonna by movies like Covenant and the Descent. Ive got 60 BD titles and I skipped those 2. But there are about 15 titles Im getting In January. Im sure that there might be something that interests a few more people than me on that list. Let the movies come and see how the software sells.

Darin,

I don't doubt that PS3 owners are buying Blu Ray movies, but why is it that everyone is accepting Amazon sales figures are gospel when only months ago it was heresy to even suggest that they were indicative of the software sales? Its such a joke! Clearly BD is coming into its own both in terms of quality and sales (coincidence, I think not!). This doesn't mean that it is better than HD DVD in terms of quality or even approaching parity. The long term figures show that BD has come close to HD DVD in terms of software sales and then quickly died back down to its usual position. It is simply too early to say that BD software sales are anywhere near strong, but they certainly aren't as anemic as they once were. If I were a BD fan, I wouldn't take solace in that morose assessment, things are not what they should be for the promised format and it looks like BD is on the proving grounds not HD DVD.

forceflow, Toshiba would prob not be trouncing BD in stand-alone sales if it was not initially subsidized. If samsung and the rest had subsidized too, it wouldn't be hard to sell more players. The fact that they are not, shows one of two things:

1. They are confident that the PS3 will do a good job of getting BD installed in the mass market. So, they'd rather make profits on their players OR

2. "Nobody buys a console as a stand-alone" is Wrong.

Otherwise, there should be a subtantial market segment that is waiting for 5-600 USD BD stand-alone players. These chaps would be stuck cos they will not buy the PS3 for movies alone, thus it would have made sense for BD manufacturers to release a clunky BD stand-alone (at cost or loss) to capture this market.

The fact that they are not means PS3 as a BD player-only does work.

Boy, this analysis is weak. But let's go with the flow. Ok, Blu-ray has a huge install base advantage, as you say. Then if I'm a studio, I say "HD DVD has more sales even though Blu-ray has over 3x as many players! I say Blu-ray is obviously a no-go.

Great post!

Yes, if you're a CE company and you look at those figures, you'll likely quickly figure out a way to sell HD DVD players as BD is a BUST.

97.5% of their players lose them 350 dollars. 2.5% of them make them wealthy but why produce these units if you only sell 10,000 (or less)? Why not go for the gusto and leverage economies of scale?

BD may have played their pipe (or packed it) to gain a following of CE companies, but it will likely disappear without more viable BD stand alone players.

Darin,

I don't doubt that PS3 owners are buying Blu Ray movies, but why is it that everyone is accepting Amazon sales figures are gospel when only months ago it was heresy to even suggest that they were indicative of the software sales? Its such a joke! Clearly BD is coming into its own both in terms of quality and sales (coincidence, I think not!).So, do you believe the Amazon numbers give us a reasonable idea of what is going on or not? This isn't about what some other people have said.
This doesn't mean that it is better than HD DVD in terms of quality or even approaching parity.What does this even have to do with what we are discussing?
The long term figures show that BD has come close to HD DVD in terms of software sales and then quickly died back down to its usual position.They have? Please show me the figures that back up what you just claimed. If you are looking at thedvdwars site then you must be looking at different data than I am to make that claim.

I'm not clear about whether your claim is that software sales to PS3 owners are a big deal or that they are not, given that you went off about Amazon's numbers and it not being better than HD DVD in quality. So, do you think the videoscan numbers will show HD DVD trouncing Blu-ray for software sales on a run rate basis?

--Darin

Yes, if you're a CE company and you look at those figures, you'll likely quickly figure out a way to sell HD DVD players as BD is a BUST.Silly. It's common knowledge that Toshiba produced the first HD DVD player at a loss (or, at best, at cost), while Samsung and Co. are making a profit off of their units.

So unless CE manufacturers want to subsidize Toshiba/Universal's optical disc format, I don't see many of them jumping ship from BD to HD DVD.

In any event, I don't see how anyone can see these new numbers as anything but a big win for BD. HD DVD had a two to three month head start, and here we are looking at BD with 1 million installed units to HD DVD's.. what, barely half that?

With all the BD exclusive titles coming in the next few months, I think we'll see the software sales begin to align with the hardware sales.

Of course they will on average. That should be as obvious as that if there are more of the others then they don't have to average as high to end up with a higher total. Both have to be taken into account.
If you think that HD DVD has close a 10:1 advantage in players not counting the PS3, then do you think the software sales on a run rate basis on HD DVD are trouncing Blu-ray, that software sales to PS3 owners are making up most of the gap, or something else? If the PS3 isn't contributing much to software sales, then the sales gap on a run rate basis should be way more in favor of HD DVD than the 1.5:1 that tsd2005 mentioned he thought it would be for the month of December (where it could have even ended the month closer than that).

It just seems like some people want to claim the PS3 isn't contributing much and that not many standalone Blu-ray players have been sold (which I pretty much agree with). Well, if that is the case then HD DVD software sales should be trouncing Blu-ray software sales today, and not just sales from months ago being way better.

--Darin

Darin, I don't discredit the PS3 impact at all. If the Amazon sales charts are representative (and I think they certainly are) blu-ray sales have come very close to HD DVD over the past month. But to be honest, the past month, you'd expect a pretty good bump in blu-ray sales. But then again, the HD DVD releases haven't been much to cheer about over the same time period.
On another note, I think blu-ray disk sales will level off then drop as the "ooh, it plays blu-ray movies too" fad will wear off, especially as seeing the PS3 supply has essentially met demand.
But if I'm wrong, and blu-ray titles do maintain to grow and surpass HD DVD over the next couple months, then Sony's backdoor (Trojan Horse) strategy will appear to be working.

forceflow, Toshiba would prob not be trouncing BD in stand-alone sales if it was not initially subsidized. If samsung and the rest had subsidized too, it wouldn't be hard to sell more players. The fact that they are not, shows one of two things:

1. They are confident that the PS3 will do a good job of getting BD installed in the mass market. So, they'd rather make profits on their players OR

It can't be this because then those companies are ceeding player sales to the PS3, and they aren't making any real profit because they can't move their players.

The fact that they are not means PS3 as a BD player-only does work.

But at what percentage. That's the question here. I don't think anyone discounts that some people will buy the PS3 as a Blu-ray player. But that percentage is still in the very big minority. Remember, it's not a standalone player, it's a PLAYSTATION. The name of the machine resonates more with it's primary function. Otherwise they should have called it the Blu-ray Station.

On another note, I think blu-ray disk sales will level off then drop as the "ooh, it plays blu-ray movies too" fad will wear off, especially as seeing the PS3 supply has essentially met demand. And there is much of the crux of the debate. Will demand taper off, or will this be a group of people that the Blu-ray side can market to and get to buy things like, "Casino Royale" in high enough percentages to be significant. Basically, how many of them can they get accustomed to getting their movies in Blu-ray. Time should tell.

--Darin

They have? Please show me the figures that back up what you just claimed. If you are looking at thedvdwars site then you must be looking at different data than I am to make that claim.

Yes, dvdwars. Same data, click on view all for Top 10. Look at the BD launch, mid june. See that spike? See it die off? See it continue to die off? See it come back around the start of Oct.?

Just now its getting close to parity and that is with no real annoucements or releases by the HD DVD camp. BB is still #2 and still ranked above 250 after so many months. Look at the top 10 BD movies, all are new releases. HD DVD is by no means done for and I think this latest BD surge, like the one in mid June, will fail to maintain its steam.

Just for kicks, click on see all for In top 100. Then uncheck show HD DVD. Flatline. :D

So, do you believe the Amazon numbers give us a reasonable idea of what is going on or not? This isn't about what some other people have said.

Darin, what FF's point was that when the margin between HD DVD and Blu-ray was wider, anyone who mentioned Amazon sales figures was attacked and it was even suggested that Blu-ray owners simply didn't buy movies on Amazon.

Now all of a sudden the numbers tighten, and Amazon is magically all of a sudden a valid method of sales tracking. It's not the numbers, it's the hypocritical attitude of those who are now trying to trumpet them.

For the record, I didn't really buy into the Amazon numbers then, and I don't now either. I'm one that likes to see actual hard numbers. That's why I don't put as much stock in NPD numbers as some like to either.


Silly. It's common knowledge that Toshiba produced the first HD DVD player at a loss (or, at best, at cost), while Samsung and Co. are making a profit off of their units.

Common knowledge huh? Have a link to go with that?


In any event, I don't see how anyone can see these new numbers as anything but a big win for BD. HD DVD had a two to three month head start, and here we are looking at BD with 1 million installed units to HD DVD's.. what, barely half that?

Still waiting to hear where that 1 million comes from, but that's just me.

So now every single PS3 sale constitutes a BR user?? We've now officially crossed over from roll-your-eyes territory into looneytoonesville.

The claims from the BR diehards get crazier with each passing day.... desperation?

Good thing universal players will make this whole format war immaterial... no need for a winner or loser.

Yes, dvdwars. Same data, click on view all for Top 10. Look at the BD launch, mid june. See that spike? See it die off? See it continue to die off? See it come back around the start of Oct.?I'm looking at the same data and I'm having a hard time seeing how you can come even close to justifying, "The long term figures show that BD has come close to HD DVD in terms of software sales and then quickly died back down to its usual position." Do you think it's usual position is with an average ranking for the top 10 of around 1000, with 5 or so titles in the top 1000, and 80 or so titles in the top 10,000? I doubt many others would call Blu-ray being at about 1000 for an average of the top 10 right now its "usual position" when this is the whole graph:

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank-1-1-All.jpg

Look at the top 10 BD movies, all are new releases.I'm not sure where you got that one either. Are you looking at the same site I am?
HD DVD is by no means done for and I think this latest BD surge, like the one in mid June, will fail to maintain its steam.It sounds like your prediction is that it will settle down to its usual position and even though the data doesn't support that it has, said it had out of hope or something. Maybe it will settle down to its usual position, but that would be a change from now.

--Darin

In any event, I don't see how anyone can see these new numbers as anything but a big win for BD. HD DVD had a two to three month head start, and here we are looking at BD with 1 million installed units to HD DVD's.. what, barely half that?

With all the BD exclusive titles coming in the next few months, I think we'll see the software sales begin to align with the hardware sales.

And the point that many are trying to make here is that there are two arguments.

1. Bd has an install base of over 1 million players because of the PS3.

But if there are over a million BD players out there, which would put BD at over a 3:1 ratio, why does HD DVD still continue to lead in software sales? Even with a 2 to 3 month head start, BD should be killing HD DVD with that amount of players on the street.

2. BD software is catching up to HD DVD sofware because of PS3 sales.

The problem with that is when their was a huge influx of BD players (PS3) over the holidays, BD software experienced a spike instead of the huge boost it should have received. Once again, BD software sales should have gone through the roof but didn't.

How is that good for BD?

I personally believe from now on software sales from both camps will be pretty close to each other. I think the PS3 is the only reason BD is staying alive at this point. Is that good news for BD? I don't think so. All that means is that standalone players from one company are not only standing toe to toe with every company that supports BD, but continually and consistantly outselling those companies (including the PS3).

Common knowledge huh? Have a link to go with that?It was on Slashdot shortly after the Samsung player launched, for one, though I'm not about to go spelunking through their archives. Feel free to do so yourself, if you're curious.

Still waiting to hear where that 1 million comes from, but that's just me.It's in the article cited on the first comment of this thread (though the comment author fudged the numbers, neglecting to include the PS3 sales; this was corrected in later comments though).

Using your 10% number it would be about 270,000 vs 100,000. Do you believe HD DVD movie disc sales killed Blu-ray movie disc sales at the end of December and now in a way that a 2.7:1 player in use advantage would support? And if 10% is high, then the player advantage would be even more than 2.7:1 there.

--Darin Don't know. Its possible that HD DVD shiny disc sales were over 2.7 to 1 over Blu-ray disc sales . We just don't know yet.

The Amazon trend lines are clearly up for Blu-ray and closing in on HD DVD, but their still an order of magnitude lower for the best sellers.

I am waiting for real numbers. But so far so good for HD DVD in teh holiday sales, and that may be enough to convince studios that HD DVD will not die.

It was on Slashdot shortly after the Samsung player launched, for one, though I'm not about to go spelunking through their archives. Feel free to do so yourself, if you're curious.


Your the one making claims...claims that have been made for months and nary a link to show for it...I doubt you will magically come up with one now.

It's in the article cited on the first comment of this thread (though the comment author fudged the numbers, neglecting to include the PS3 sales; this was corrected in later comments though).

Pretty sad BD sales for over a million players out there. Maybe everyone is renting? That can be a new thread topic. "BD sales low because everyone with a BD player is renting, not buying." Makes as much sense as half the poo flyin around here.

Darin, what FF's point was that when the margin between HD DVD and Blu-ray was wider, anyone who mentioned Amazon sales figures was attacked and it was even suggested that Blu-ray owners simply didn't buy movies on Amazon.

Now all of a sudden the numbers tighten, and Amazon is magically all of a sudden a valid method of sales tracking. It's not the numbers, it's the hypocritical attitude of those who are now trying to trumpet them.If you would show me one place where I have said they are meaningless, then your hypocritical comment could stick here. :) I think I have been consistent in what I have said. There are flaws, but I think they give us a pretty good idea of what is going on and have for a while. Not exact of course with multiple weaknesses (like sold out titles, titles not being up and being ranks and not exact figures, etc.), but pretty good. Especially when combined with other data that we can get. I'm not sure who the people are who supposedly downplayed them and then trumpeted them. It seems like it is a "them" or "those" situation, but maybe there are specific people.

--Darin

Looks like there is a bit of discrepancy in these numbers. PS3 numbers are shown to be 400,000, which means that the add-on numbers are or should also be during that same time period. If so, 150,000 doesn't sound right. When PS3 was at that mark, add-on numbers would have been close to 50,000 or so. Something doesn't compute. What am I missing?

Is there any other analyst claiming this? Are these real numbers?

PS: I only read the first page before posting -- by mistake. Maybe answer is somewhere in this thread. Sorry, if it is so.

2. BD software is catching up to HD DVD sofware because of PS3 sales.

The problem with that is when their was a huge influx of BD players (PS3) over the holidays, BD software experienced a spike instead of the huge boost it should have received. Once again, BD software sales should have gone through the roof but didn't.Where is this spike you are talking about? And why should they have gone through the roof compared to HD DVD sales? Just pick a reasonable figure for the effective percentage of PS3s that should be counted as movie players and then look at the number of players for each side after that. It seems like some people want to use something close to 100% and some people want to use something close to 0%, while neither is realistic. If the effective rate was 20% over the next couple of years that would be pretty big, but wouldn't be likely to be enough for sales to go "through the roof" compared to HD DVD with the add-on and their lower priced standalone players out there.

--Darin

It was on Slashdot shortly after the Samsung player launched, for one, though I'm not about to go spelunking through their archives. Feel free to do so yourself, if you're curious.


Nononono. If you make the claim, back it up with a link. Don't throw some general statement out there and expect someone else to do the legwork the back up your own claim. If you can't produce the link, then your comment is nothing more than conjecture. Sorry.


If you would show me one place where I have said they are meaningless, then your hypocritical comment could stick here.

Well, if you would show me one place where I said you said they were meaningless, then I could go forward with that. ;)

You know as well as I do that there are people on this very forum who HAVE said it though.

I really do think this analyst is just following the online news reports; real numbers for the add-on (and hopefully all of it) will come. If NPD covered it before, they should likely be reporting it again.

Nononono. If you make the claim, back it up with a link. Don't throw some general statement out there and expect someone else to do the legwork the back up your own claim. If you can't produce the link, then your comment is nothing more than conjecture. Sorry.

You can't be serious - this is the first time you've heard of the HD DVD subsidization? IMO it is very much 'common knowledge,' and I have to wonder how you've avoided coming across it in your time here.

Here's a link for you, since I guess somebody's got to do the legwork for a conversation to proceed on these subjects: http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,1980865,00.asp

I really do think this analyst is just following the online news reports; real numbers for the add-on (and hopefully all of it) will come. If NPD covered it before, they should likely be reporting it again. I think this guy is legit, I remember references to his work before.

http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/site/contact/companyprofile.asp

His work includes some significant research techniques. He is probably not pulling numbers out of his butt. Because of the possible damage to his reputation, he probably would have some data and methodology to back up his conlcusions.

Notice his fuzziness to actual software sales (was probably 2:1) etc. He doesn't have hard data there yet, he has info on the player sales he is comfortable stating.

His sales numbers probably have some basis in fact, they are at least a SWAG. (scientific wild a**ed guess).

Your the one making claims...claims that have been made for months and nary a link to show for it...I doubt you will magically come up with one now.It's common knowledge... oh right, common to everyone but HD DVD fanbois. Here, link, link, and excerpt from article making the statement:

Slashdot: http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/06/23/210201
EETimes: http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=189600999

From the EETimes article titled "'Teardown' finds Toshiba taking a loss on HD DVD player":

According to iSuppli's teardown analysis, bill-of-materials (BOM) costs for Toshiba's HD-A1 HD DVD total an estimated $674, far exceeding the unit's $499 U.S. retail price. The estimated BOM figure excludes costs for manufacturing, testing, cables, remote control and packaging—costs that could easily push the total cost of each unit to more than $700, iSuppli (El Segundo, Calif.) said.
Let me guess, next you guys will dispute the article or claim it's BD FUD.

Pretty sad BD sales for over a million players out there.Or it's possible a good percentage of the sales were as Christmas presents, which weren't opened until December 25th. Wait for January numbers? But I guess since HD DVD sales went down in December, we can make the leap that the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on wasn't used for movies at all. :eek:

@Kosty: I'm not saying the guy isn't legit... in fact, many an industry analyst does no more than check the news of the day and draw analysis relative to their general industry knowledge. Again I'm not knocking the guy, I'm just saying that Adams doesn't create numbers... he reports them. And where those numbers come from originally makes all the difference in terms of their relevence to our conversations here.

It's just figures like 150,000 add-ons sold... commonly known to be the initial target run of the add-on in the first place.... are just too even and convenient. (And I *know* not all of those have sold, just by walking around stores.) Just like 400,000 PS3's, the *exact* target launch amount Sony claimed to have in the wings for the US on launch day, is just too even and convenient a number for him to be quoting. Hell, SOny didn't even meet that target... yet quickly surpassed it on proceeding shipments. So there is no other way he could come to 400k exactly except to be quoting (lazily) articles like this: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

For him to be quoting the numbers he is, this guy is reading the same news we are and regurgitating it. Not only that, but he regurgitates some incorrect figures for lack of effort in follow-up.

blu-ray has about 1,500,000 users worldwide according to accredited media research groups like like media create and NPD. this will likely be up over 10,000,000 by 2008.

blu-ray software sales are spiking fast and should completely leave hd dvd sales in the dust early this year, never to look back.

this wall street journal article is loaded with inaccuracies and old information. "hi im john from john's research, and i declare these numbers!". WSJ should quote nextgenwars next as an accurate source. Nice to know that you are a judge of professional research companies. He's at least been used as an expert court witness, that's a step above "john's research"

http://www.adamsmediaresearch.com/site/contact/companyprofile.asp

Okay, so if you believe that 1.5% of PS3s are being used for watching movies, then how do you explain how much closer things have gotten on Amazon and how Blu-ray looks to be ahead for software sales recently on buy.com and dvdempire? If HD DVD has 270,000 players in use and less than 50,000 standalone Blu-ray players have been sold, then where are those sales for Blu-ray coming from? 1.5% of one million PS3s would only be 15,000. Do you disagree with the 270,000 HD DVD players, a different number, or do you believe that Blu-ray owners are buying way more movies right now per system than HD DVD owners?

--Darin


Because the price of the samsung has droped and alot of the HD DVD ppl have bought the PS3 for Blu Ray play back. Plus there have not been alot of movies tht have come out lately for HD DVD so...... there was alot of HD drought among the HD DVD crowd.

Don't be an jerk, xbdestroya. I asked him to provide the link to the claim he was making. A link was provided, and I am satisfied. I'm sorry we're not all massively superior people that know it all as you do. We mere mortals don't have your super powers. You're quickly sliding into my ignore list section.

And it's not the first time. But there has been debate on this same forum about the validity of claims that Toshiba subsidized it's players. There is a VAST difference between losing money on a product, and having someone else subsidize the cost of that product. If losing money is the definition of subsidize, someone needs to change it in the dictionary.

Maybe he has, but either way his numbers do not match up with the numbers we have officially reported. He's definately regurgitating. Perhaps someone should contact him and ask him where he's sourcing? Anyone got that WSJ?

Amazon is still an invalid source, as is DVDWars.com of the overall market.

We knowfor a fact his numbers are off because Talledega Nights is no longer a packin, and that stopped at 500K. So Sony has absolutely shipped more than 500,000 units to US stores, they claim 800,000(let's even subtract 50,000 returns from scalpers). That still puts it at 750K, and 1.1million in houses worldwide.

I'm going to bet that the people who dismiss and refuse to count the PS3 are not, nor have they ever been gamers, and thus know nothing about the market or it's demographics. I find especially hilarious the ones who count the addon as a $200 HD-DVD player when it clearly costs at least $500 for a complete playback package.

Intent doesn't matter. How many Wiis will be gathering dust when the gimmick wears off in a few months? How many soloflexes? How do you know that the 360 addon people will keep buying movies?

You don't. It's the same boat as PS3, the difference being that no one who has a PS3 has to think about, or do anything to play BR discs, while the 360 people have to go out and buy a special device for $200. You're going to get a lot of casual purchases that the addon will never see.

Don't be an *******, xbdestroya. I asked him to provide the link to the claim he was making. A link was provided, and I am satisfied. I'm sorry we're not all massively superior people that know it all as you do. We mere mortals don't have your super powers. You're quickly sliding into my ignore list section.

The problem I have is that you basically took the stance that unless he provided a link, you just simply wouldn't believe him. Innocent until proven guilty is fine by me, but when something is so easy to research you'd think that all parties involved would at least do the one second Google search required to reach the conclusion, rather than defer it.

If you have been party to said Toshiba-subsidization discussions in the past:

1) Why were you playing coy when he said it was common knowledge?

and

2) Did this very well-known teardown analysis not get posted in *any* of those debates?

It's not about 'super powers,' but rather what I perceived to have been willfully playing dumb on a matter that is indeed well documented. If I read it wrong, and you were indeed unawares that this was 'common knowledge,' I apologize. But you could see where your post count and your join date would have left me to assume that you'd likely come across this before.

And it's not the first time. But there has been debate on this same forum about the validity of claims that Toshiba subsidized it's players. There is a VAST difference between losing money on a product, and having someone else subsidize the cost of that product. If losing money is the definition of subsidize, someone needs to change it in the dictionary.

People say that Toshiba is 'subsidizing' HD DVD because their willingness to take a loss on the players is what allows them to price said players in a bracket that has sped up adoption of the actual format (which is where they want to win ultimately). It's the same model console makers use to speed up adoption of their software, where the real money for them lies.

Yes, dvdwars. Same data, click on view all for Top 10. Look at the BD launch, mid june. See that spike? See it die off? See it continue to die off? See it come back around the start of Oct.?

Just now its getting close to parity and that is with no real annoucements or releases by the HD DVD camp. BB is still #2 and still ranked above 250 after so many months. Look at the top 10 BD movies, all are new releases. HD DVD is by no means done for and I think this latest BD surge, like the one in mid June, will fail to maintain its steam.

Just for kicks, click on see all for In top 100. Then uncheck show HD DVD. Flatline. :D If you look at the top 10 average and the number in the top 10000 charts, HD DVD is still trending above Blu-ray. What you have to see is that the top of the chart represents a lot more sales than the bottom so the top gap is much harder to close and means a lot more.

If the top 10 HD DVD graph is trending 600 as an average, and Blu-ray has gone from 3000 t0 1000 it looks like a hell of a closing gain, but the gap of what a sales ranking of 600 means compared to 1000 still remains.

3000 may mean 1 sale per day. 1000 may mean 100 sales per day and 500 may mean 500 sales per day. The linear nature of the graph exaggerates the closing rate, if the graph is rescaled (look at the 7 day trends) a gap can still be seen that can be a significant delta in sales.

We've now officially crossed over from roll-your-eyes territory into looneytoonesville. ROFLMAO :D

http://www.spitting-image.net/archives/images/looney%20toons

@Kosty: I'm not saying the guy isn't legit... in fact, many an industry analyst does no more than check the news of the day and draw analysis relative to their general industry knowledge. Again I'm not knocking the guy, I'm just saying that Adams doesn't create numbers... he reports them. And where those numbers come from originally makes all the difference in terms of their relevence to our conversations here.

It's just figures like 150,000 add-ons sold... commonly known to be the initial target run of the add-on in the first place.... are just too even and convenient. (And I *know* not all of those have sold, just by walking around stores.) Just like 400,000 PS3's, the *exact* target launch amount Sony claimed to have in the wings for the US on launch day, is just too even and convenient a number for him to be quoting. Hell, SOny didn't even meet that target... yet quickly surpassed it on proceeding shipments. So there is no other way he could come to 400k exactly except to be quoting (lazily) articles like this: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

For him to be quoting the numbers he is, this guy is reading the same news we are and regurgitating it. Not only that, but he regurgitates some incorrect figures for lack of effort in follow-up. Agreed .

Well, for a few of the in depth guys here at AVS, some may know more information on the HD format wars than many of those guys. You and I both could probably give some good quotes to the press. :)

Just because he is using those numbers though, doesn't mean he hasn't validated them somewhat.

If the top 10 HD DVD graph is trending 600 as an average, and Blu-ray has gone from 3000 t0 1000 it looks like a hell of a closing gain, but the gap of what a sales ranking of 600 means compared to 1000 still remains.

3000 may mean 1 sale per day. 1000 may mean 100 sales per day and 500 may mean 500 sales per day. The linear nature of the graph exaggerates the closing rate, if the graph is rescaled (look at the 7 day trends) a gap can still be seen that can be a significant delta in sales.I've seen you mention before that the gap between 1000 and 500 could be big and that could be true, but if it is real big, then the numbers just for the last few days are interesting. Going back to the last entry on http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx which was Jan 2nd at 4 am, HD DVD was at 913 average for the top 10 according to that site. 24 hours later they were at 1061. 24 more hours they were at 576. And almost 24 hours later they are at 814. I don't know what time thedvdwars.com site updates their charts, but the other one is every half hour. At the moment that gap shows 814 to 1072 between HD DVD and Blu-ray, so if the gap between 500 and 1000 is as big as you are speculating, then Blu-ray must have closed a lot (with HD DVD dropping quite a bit).

There are some complicating factors, like "Superman Returns" selling out on Blu-ray so it can't even be ordered for shipment later (it shot up when it came into stock, sold out quickly and then started falling again). A couple of days ago the site wasn't including SR on HD DVD and I mentioned it here, then it looks like it got corrected. There are also other titles that are selling out on both that tend to hurt their rankings.

--Darin

I've seen you mention before that the gap between 1000 and 500 could be big and that could be true, but if it is real big, then the numbers just for the last few days are interesting. Going back to the last entry on http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx which was Jan 2nd at 4 am, HD DVD was at 913 average for the top 10 according to that site. 24 hours later they were at 1061. 24 more hours they were at 576. And almost 24 hours later they are at 814. I don't know what time thedvdwars.com site updates their charts, but the other one is every half hour. At the moment that gap shows 814 to 1072 between HD DVD and Blu-ray, so if the gap between 500 and 1000 is as big as you are speculating, then Blu-ray must have closed a lot (with HD DVD dropping quite a bit).

There are some complicating factors, like "Superman Returns" selling out on Blu-ray so it can't even be ordered for shipment later (it shot up when it came into stock, sold out quickly and then started falling again). A couple of days ago the site wasn't including SR on HD DVD and I mentioned it here, then it looks like it got corrected. There are also other titles that are selling out on both that tend to hurt their rankings.

--Darin

I am starting to track the hdgamdb site. The problem there is there is a hour by hour change which tends to stabilize over a longer 24 hour period. The dvdwars site does a sampling snapshot at the same time every day, so the hourly variation is softened. Over a couple says the trend becomes clearer.

It would be nice if we could get long historical data form that site for more than 72 hours. I have an idea about that, but I am sure it will be feasible.

The daily snapshot and historical tracking of the dvdwars site gives better trend information, but the db site has all the raw data but doesn't keep it for long enough to make sense of it. :mad: It gives a looking at tree bark perspective instead of seeing the forest. It would be nice to have that data for a longer period.

I agree with the micro issues of tracking the Amazon stats, but I think their is validity in the trends.

I am starting to track the hdgamdb site. The problem there is there is a hour by hour change which tends to stabilize over a longer 24 hour period. The dvdwars site does a sampling snapshot at the same time every day, so the hourly variation is softened. Over a couple says the trend becomes clearer.This makes it sound like less samples gives you more reliable information. Do you believe that the numbers are related to the hour (as in they will tend to be up at a certain time of day and down at another time)? Because if not I would say that it is thedvdwars.com site that has the weakness from drawing straight lines between their points 24 hours apart. Being able to go back further is of course nice, but I would prefer a chart that had snapshots every half hour to one that had snapshots every day, all else being equal.
I agree with the micro issues of tracking the Amazon stats, but I think their is validity in the trends.I agree that there is validity in looking at trends, but do you agree that it would be a little strange for the HD DVD stats to jump around as much as they have if the gap in sales between 500 and 1000 is 5x?

--Darin

This makes it sound like less samples gives you more reliable information. Do you believe that the numbers are related to the hour (as in they will tend to be up at a certain time of day and down at another time)? Because if not I would say that it is thedvdwars.com site that has the weakness from drawing straight lines between their points 24 hours apart. Being able to go back further is of course nice, but I would prefer a chart that had snapshots every half hour to one that had snapshots every day, all else being equal.
I agree that there is validity in looking at trends, but do you agree that it would be a little strange for the HD DVD stats to jump around as much as they have if the gap in sales between 500 and 1000 is 5x?

--Darin More samples or more data would be better. But seeing it over time is more useful as there is short term volativity that is just random noise.

I would like more samples over a longer time period. I may have discovered how to do that for the db site, but it may be too time intensive to make it practicable.

Its just that the hour to hour ratings vary based on the sales in a more random manner than the average over a several day period when the total aging and total cumulative sales part of the Anazon equation kicks in. There is not a lot of differnece between say a 746 and 800 number, its almost random hour by hour, but over a couple days the cumlative effect seperates out the rankings.

There is a lot more volativity hour by hour than day by day. or week by week.

I may have a method that can track those hourly changes over time. The stats are updated hourly although the site gives 30 minute breaks. If you notice there are no change between every other 30 minute interval.

1. iSupply was wrong. A Toshiba VP has been quoted in the press in saying he's wrong. A VP at CEDIA told me that iSupply was "very mistaken." They didn't understand that chip costs as well as some other costs were much less for Toshiba because they make them vs buying them. It was shoddy internet journalism. Not one "article," on it ever even tried to contact Toshiba about it. You don't even get "Toshiba refused comment," and it's bunk. I believe iSupply said the PS3 was losing like $500 a unit and Sony says it's $200.

RCA sold units that Toshiba sold them. So Toshiba lost a massive amount on those? SURE. Talk of cheap <$350 Chinese players has been going around for awhile (supposedly Spring 2007, so should be announced at CES) players has consistently been mentioned. They would be losing money as well?

Not likely. iSupply said they could be wrong and they had no idea by how much. It seems by about $300.

I've always been told that they were making "barely anything," and couldn't reduce the MSRP anymore. The A2 was needed for that, the A2 according to Toshiba can be lowered to around $350 and still be profitable.

2. The CONFIRMABLE hardware numbers are good into the middle of December on the Addon, 2nd week of December for the PS3, 25th of December for Toshiba, etc.

Knowing the person being quoted in the article's history he was only using confirmed numbers of SALES vs. shipped. So he is using mixed data. We know the addon sold 50,000 units in roughly 11 days. We also know that the initial shipment of PS3s was around 195,000.

The numbers are legit.

The big problem for BD is standalone sales

If you're a CE why would you make a BD player? The competition is selling 5 times as many players as all of you combined! The competition is also cheaper to manufacture.

LG had a VP quit because they were going to release a BD player!!!!

Now they are releasing a Universal player, and that is smart.

We're told more CEs will be making HD-DVD players.

We now know it will be Toshiba, RCA, and LG with players definately.

Other CEs aren't stupid. They see the sales differences.

Maybe everyone is renting?

Probably not everyone, but i do suspect movie renting would be a common trait for console owning movie viewers.

Probably not everyone, but i do suspect movie renting would be a common trait for console owning movie viewers.

I know I'm doing a lot of renting. I don't have the same enthusiasm to replace my DVDs like I did with VHS. I've been a lot more selective with what titles I buy.

tsd2005
Very well explained about the isupply and see the stand alones for bluray not doing well.Pioneer,panasonic etc must not be happy with small return they are getting. :p
thanks

tsd2005

Logic is the kryptonite of spin.

I've always been told that they were making "barely anything," and couldn't reduce the MSRP anymore. The A2 was needed for that, the A2 according to Toshiba can be lowered to around $350 and still be profitable.
Just to confirm: $350 MSRP?

If so, the predictions of an A2 MSRP at $399 in Q2 2007 might make sense. The predictions of an A2 MSRP at $299 do not however.

1. iSupply was wrong. A Toshiba VP has been quoted in the press in saying he's wrong.
Are you refering to the fella working in Toshiba's Australian organisation, with no particular connection to their HD DVD division? He offered no information, and didn't suggest he knew anything at all. I believe his words were along the line that he didn't think selling at a loss was consistant with his knowledge of Toshiba's general policy.

A VP at CEDIA told me that iSupply was "very mistaken." They didn't understand that chip costs as well as some other costs were much less for Toshiba because they make them vs buying them. It was shoddy internet journalism.
That's odd, an SVP told me it was actually a fairly conservative estimate. Don't believe everything you're told folks, particularly by "insiders" on the internet...

RCA sold units that Toshiba sold them. So Toshiba lost a massive amount on those? SURE.
How many Toshiba units had the RCA badge slapped on them? And how much is the marketing budget for HD DVD? Please think before you type.

The big problem for BD is standalone sales

If you're a CE why would you make a BD player? The competition is selling 5 times as many players as all of you combined! The competition is also cheaper to manufacture.

LG had a VP quit because they were going to release a BD player!!!!

Now they are releasing a Universal player, and that is smart.


Following your logic, LG should be making an HD DVD only player.

LG is killing competitiveness in the HD DVD marketplace by filling their box with (your claim) more expensive to manufacture BD stuff. That's smart?

The problem is an LG can't compete with the PS/3 in the BD player space. The combo distiguishes them. But, it's still a BD player. And people won't be buying it if they don't intend to purchase BD discs.

Gary

Are you refering to the fella working in Toshiba's Australian organisation, with no particular connection to their HD DVD division? He offered no information, and didn't suggest he knew anything at all. I believe his words were along the line that he didn't think selling at a loss was consistant with his knowledge of Toshiba's general policy.


That's odd, an SVP told me it was actually a fairly conservative estimate. Don't believe everything you're told folks, particularly by "insiders" on the internet...


How many Toshiba units had the RCA badge slapped on them? And how much is the marketing budget for HD DVD? Please think before you type. I got much the same information as tsd2005 on this issue during Cedia and through other sale distribution channels. Not just through the www. Best guess was a smaller loss than the iSuppli estimate for the HD A1, close to breakeven on the HD XA1, but any loss was limited by the small production run of around 70, 000 units and was treated as a wise investment/

People say that Toshiba is 'subsidizing' HD DVD because their willingness to take a loss on the players is what allows them to price said players in a bracket that has sped up adoption of the actual format (which is where they want to win ultimately). It's the same model console makers use to speed up adoption of their software, where the real money for them lies.

Ok, but that's not "subsidizing" either. The definition of the word is not the same as "selling for a loss". It's two different things.

But then if we are going on the perception of what a subsidy is, we are all agreed that Sony is currently "subsidizing" the Playstation 3?

So really if Sony had to subsidize the PS3 in order to get Blu-ray out there. Isn't that the attack that was given on Toshiba? And so why aren't we hearing the same cries of "foul" that Sony is doing the same thing Toshiba did?


And again XB I am not interested in quabbling about what your problems are with what everyone posts here. I was looking for a link, not a link with commentary was the bottom line. And as tsd2005 has said, those reports are in doubt, so it's not exactly "common knowledge", and I'll leave that part of our conversation at that.

1. iSupply was wrong.Prove it. Ranting about it without a shred of proof does not disprove it. Besides, those are all (for the most part) off-the-shelf components; very little was custom for the unit according to the analysis.

Dual format players ensure that both formats are here to stay and no hardware sales numbers are going to change that.

Finally something that we both can agree on. ;)

The recent developments re: universal players and universal discs seem to make it apparent that since there has not been a clear winner thus far in the format war, more entities want to find a solution that embraces both formats. I imagine that we'll see that approach continue, especially from companies/studios that currently do not have a vested interest or sunk cost in the format war to date.

Darin, I don't discredit the PS3 impact at all. If the Amazon sales charts are representative (and I think they certainly are) blu-ray sales have come very close to HD DVD over the past month. But to be honest, the past month, you'd expect a pretty good bump in blu-ray sales. But then again, the HD DVD releases haven't been much to cheer about over the same time period.
On another note, I think blu-ray disk sales will level off then drop as the "ooh, it plays blu-ray movies too" fad will wear off, especially as seeing the PS3 supply has essentially met demand.
But if I'm wrong, and blu-ray titles do maintain to grow and surpass HD DVD over the next couple months, then Sony's backdoor (Trojan Horse) strategy will appear to be working.

If the studios remain exclusive, then it doesn't seem that the HD DVD only releases are slated to be much better so shouldn't that BD bump continue since most believe that the announced BD only title look pretty good.

Why would you think of the movie playing feature as a "fad" in the eyes of gamers? I do not think a gamer would go out and buy $20-$30 movie to test the BD player. IMO, if a gamer bought movies before the PS3 and bought movies in December then I would think the behavior would continue. Buying a movie isn't an impulse purchase and something someone would do to check out the player.

IMO, if you one were to believe that there are only 25k standalone players out there then either those 25k owners are buying lots of movies or the PS3 is having an impact.

It's common knowledge... oh right, common to everyone but HD DVD fanbois. Here, link, link, and excerpt from article making the statement:

Slashdot: http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/06/23/210201
EETimes: http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=189600999

From the EETimes article titled "'Teardown' finds Toshiba taking a loss on HD DVD player":

According to iSuppli's teardown analysis, bill-of-materials (BOM) costs for Toshiba's HD-A1 HD DVD total an estimated $674, far exceeding the unit's $499 U.S. retail price. The estimated BOM figure excludes costs for manufacturing, testing, cables, remote control and packaging—costs that could easily push the total cost of each unit to more than $700, iSuppli (El Segundo, Calif.) said.
Let me guess, next you guys will dispute the article or claim it's BD FUD.

Or it's possible a good percentage of the sales were as Christmas presents, which weren't opened until December 25th. Wait for January numbers? But I guess since HD DVD sales went down in December, we can make the leap that the XBox 360 HD DVD add-on wasn't used for movies at all. :eek:

Thanks for the links. You just need to know, that in order to be taken seriously here, you need to back up your claims. I have heard over and over again about subsity and this is the first time I have laid eyes on them. So in one breath I will say, yes, it looks like Toshiba subsidized their players and in the nest I will ask how does that matter to us?

You misunderstand me for someone taking sides. I am neither pro HD DVD or pro BD. Review my history and you will see. I own both formats and I call it like I see it. Just because someone disagrees with your opinion doesn't mean they don't support the same rpoduct. We aren't on the Sony/BD softball team together.

Like your last paragraph...if the movies where purchased as presents, they would count as sales...guess when? Wait for it...when they where purchased. Not when they were opened. Do you have a bar code scanner at your house?

I really think the Holiday sales boost is a direct reflection of the PS3 entering the market. HD DVD sales never dropped, they stayed the same. The PS3 has yet to have the profound effect on the HD market as predicted. If there are 1 million players out there, as you say, even if software sales should only count when little Jonny opens his presents :rolleyes: don't you think BD sales should have been higher, even going by your argument.

I'm not anti BD, I'm anti poo :D

1. iSupply was wrong. A Toshiba VP has been quoted in the press in saying he's wrong. A VP at CEDIA told me that iSupply was "very mistaken." They didn't understand that chip costs as well as some other costs were much less for Toshiba because they make them vs buying them. It was shoddy internet journalism. Not one "article," on it ever even tried to contact Toshiba about it. You don't even get "Toshiba refused comment," and it's bunk. I believe iSupply said the PS3 was losing like $500 a unit and Sony says it's $200.


The proof is not in iSupply, or in Toshiba's statements. It's that they're charging double for the same deck outside of the US.

The big problem for BD is standalone sales

The PS3 is a standalone player by every definition of the word, including the dictionary. No matter how much you like it
The 360 addon is not, as it requires a $300 minimunm game console in order to function (or a $1000+ PC)


But then if we are going on the perception of what a subsidy is, we are all agreed that Sony is currently "subsidizing" the Playstation 3?
So really if Sony had to subsidize the PS3 in order to get Blu-ray out there. Isn't that the attack that was given on Toshiba? And so why aren't we hearing the same cries of "foul" that Sony is doing the same thing Toshiba did?


Of course Sony is. It's standard procedure in the games industry to sell your console at a loss(unless you're Nintendo)
You're trying to turn it around. The difference is that Sony has a reasonable expectation of making back, given that they get $10 for every piece of software on the market. Toshiba is at best getting a quarter, and it's probably far closer to a nickle. There are plenty of people with 30 games for their game console, but nowhere near as many people with a thousand or more DVDs it'd take to make up the difference on Toshiba's HD-DVD players.

. Besides, those are all (for the most part) off-the-shelf components; very little was custom for the unit according to the analysis.

True. From the pictures of the A-1 opened up, it's a lot of off the shelf PC parts. That's part of the problem Microsoft had with getting the original XBox down in price

Prove it. Ranting about it without a shred of proof does not disprove it. Besides, those are all (for the most part) off-the-shelf components; very little was custom for the unit according to the analysis.

iSupply drive costs were wrong. And it is not an off the shelf unit.

Many parts Tosh buys from Intel are at a huge volume. Only Intel & Tosh know the prices. Those are confidential and iSupply won't know them - unless they have spies.

If the studios remain exclusive, then it doesn't seem that the HD DVD only releases are slated to be much better so shouldn't that BD bump continue since most believe that the announced BD only title look pretty good.

Why would you think of the movie playing feature as a "fad" in the eyes of gamers? I do not think a gamer would go out and buy $20-$30 movie to test the BD player. IMO, if a gamer bought movies before the PS3 and bought movies in December then I would think the behavior would continue. Buying a movie isn't an impulse purchase and something someone would do to check out the player.

IMO, if you one were to believe that there are only 25k standalone players out there then either those 25k owners are buying lots of movies or the PS3 is having an impact.

The bump in Blu-ray sales is partly from the PS3, but I believe more importantly, it's from the new releases which are more likely being bought up by movie fans as opposed to game players. Have you noticed that nearly all of the blu-ray's to 20 or so best selling titles have been released in the past month or so? Many of them also appear to be exclusive, so there are a lot of HD DVD supporters that have held off buying into blu-ray until the PS3 or the discounted Samsung.

I don't think gamers care about the PS3 movie playback.... not enough to buy movies at $20-40 apiece. I'm sure they prefer to save up their allowance for a game. But I do think there's a better chance they'll rent titles from Netflix, Blockbuster.

Again, I think a lot of those 25k owners bought their stand alones in the past month or so. My guess is it's probably around 10 of the 25k. I'd also say a good 20-30k of the PS3's were bought as a stanalone over the same time period, but I expect those storng sales to level off as well as the PS3 hasn't exactly been the blockbuster blu-ray player many were hoping for. (I'm hearing the $550 Samsung is the better movie player).

Maybe he has, but either way his numbers do not match up with the numbers we have officially reported. He's definately regurgitating. Perhaps someone should contact him and ask him where he's sourcing? Anyone got that WSJ?.


Emphasis added



Why do people keep using the term "official" numbers, and "officially" reported? Were these numbers turned into the government somewhere? Just what exactly is official about them?

@Kosty: I'm not saying the guy isn't legit... in fact, many an industry analyst does no more than check the news of the day and draw analysis relative to their general industry knowledge. Again I'm not knocking the guy, I'm just saying that Adams doesn't create numbers... he reports them. And where those numbers come from originally makes all the difference in terms of their relevence to our conversations here.

It's just figures like 150,000 add-ons sold... commonly known to be the initial target run of the add-on in the first place.... are just too even and convenient. (And I *know* not all of those have sold, just by walking around stores.) Just like 400,000 PS3's, the *exact* target launch amount Sony claimed to have in the wings for the US on launch day, is just too even and convenient a number for him to be quoting. Hell, SOny didn't even meet that target... yet quickly surpassed it on proceeding shipments. So there is no other way he could come to 400k exactly except to be quoting (lazily) articles like this: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6157152.html

For him to be quoting the numbers he is, this guy is reading the same news we are and regurgitating it. Not only that, but he regurgitates some incorrect figures for lack of effort in follow-up.

I agree. It's one thing if he's getting those numbers from inside sources at the CE companies. It's another if he is getting them analyzing data he has collected from retail stores. It's another if he is passing on his estimate based on open source news reporting. He has valid credentials, but in the end he is just a guy who told us how many he thinks are out there. He didn't tell us why he thinks that many are out there, or how confident he is in those numbers.

Perhaps someone should try to reach him for a comment.

The difference is that Sony has a reasonable expectation of making back, given that they get $10 for every piece of software on the market. Toshiba is at best getting a quarter, and it's probably far closer to a nickle. There are plenty of people with 30 games for their game console, but nowhere near as many people with a thousand or more DVDs it'd take to make up the difference on Toshiba's HD-DVD players.


I highlighted part of your quote to sort of make my counterpoint. Right above that you said the PS3 was a standalone player by definition. But then it wouldn't rely on game sales to make up the difference in the hardware loss. And that is absolutely true and all video game consoles do this, including the PS2 and Xbox. But because they have to make that money back on software, they have to bill the PS3 as a game console. And that's the point where you can start to jostle on how many people use it as a BD player and how many aren't going to.

And that number is going to correlate with what Blu-ray movie sales are, whatever that number is.

It's my hope that SOMEONE puts out some real numbers at CES so we could at least get past the speculation and find out just who is winning this thing.

Darin,

(1) If one believes that consumers will buy (on average) more movies the first month they've owned their player than any individual month after that, and

(2) One believes that a higher percentage of BD owners were new owners in December (compared to HD DVD owners), then

(3) Shouldn't one believe that BD disc sales are temporarily inflated due to them having a higher percentage of new owners?


IOW, we will need another month or two to figure out the real attach rate of BD owners, because the December numbers reflect almost entirely new owners. In 6 months, the average owner's monthly buy should lower somewhat, wouldn't you agree?

Darin,

(1) If one believes that consumers will buy (on average) more movies the first month they've owned their player than any individual month after that, and
Isn't it just as possible to suggest that the higher price of the PS3 compared to other consoles will result in a lower than normal attach rate in the early months, followed by normal or higher rates in later months when the purchaser has reconstituted their spending fund. It's also more likely to see more sales once there are more discs on the market that people actually want to own, such as the Pirates movies, or Lawrence of Arabia. In the meantime folks are almost buying discs just for the novelty of owning something in HighDef, rather than going for the movies they love.

I'm not anti BD, I'm anti poo :D

Isn't it just as possible to suggest that the higher price of the PS3 compared to other consoles will result in a lower than normal attach rate in the early months, followed by normal or higher rates in later months when the purchaser has reconstituted their spending fund. It's also more likely to see more sales once there are more discs on the market that people actually want to own, such as the Pirates movies, or Lawrence of Arabia. In the meantime folks are almost buying discs just for the novelty of owning something in HighDef, rather than going for the movies they love.

The average attach rate for a player is less than one a month, in my opinion. People who are interested in using the PS3 as a BD player probably bought at least one movie. So while I understand your point, I disagree.

But just to be clear here, we have two questions about recent attach rates:

1. How many people will use their PS3 as a BD player, which has been well addressed previously, and

2. What is the attach rate of new player owners? This is something I didn't think had been factored in when discussing the recent Amazon figures, etc. Yes, it does show an increase due to the number of PS3 users coming onboard. But those numbers are also a bit inflated (relative to HD DVD) because it has a higher portion of new owners than HD DVD has now. When the installed base is more mature, the monthly attach rate average will be lower, I believe.

What is the attach rate of new player owners? This is something I didn't think had been factored in when discussing the recent Amazon figures, etc. Yes, it does show an increase due to the number of PS3 users coming onboard. But those numbers are also a bit inflated (relative to HD DVD) because it has a higher portion of new owners than HD DVD has now. When the installed base is more mature, the monthly attach rate average will be lower, I believe.

Likely correct. Both HD and BR are currently experiencing the "shiny" period after Christmas with lots of people having new decks and/or HDTVs.

But if there are 8x as many blu-ray people as their are HD, even if the HD attach rate is 10 discs per year, all the BR people have to do is buy 2 and they crush them with sheer mass

The studios don't care about how many YOU buy. They care how many they sell together, it doesn't matter to how many people.

Likely correct. Both HD and BR are currently experiencing the "shiny" period after Christmas with lots of people having new decks and/or HDTVs.

But if there are 8x as many blu-ray people as their are HD, even if the HD attach rate is 10 discs per year, all the BR people have to do is buy 2 and they crush them with sheer mass

The studios don't care about how many YOU buy. They care how many they sell together, it doesn't matter to how many people.

While I understand your general point, that oversimplifies things a bit.

For example, lets say that your average BD person only buys 2 films. I would argue that someone buying that small of a number is going to be buying a biggie title -- Casino Royale, Spider-man, Pirates.

So a few big hit titles become huge bestsellers, while the hundreds of others collect dust? No studio wants that...


I guess I'm saying that even if the install base #s favor BD, if those people aren't ultimately movie collectors, this is going to be a failure (maybe even for both HD formats). Studios need to see large attachment numbers per unit (like they have on DVD).

The studios don't care about how many YOU buy. They care how many they sell together, it doesn't matter to how many people Not that simple. If the attach rate is consistently high for a low volume piece of equipment, it can be determined that additional sales could sustain a similar attach rate, so more advertising could drive equipment and those additional attached software sales.

But if you have a lot of items sold, with low attach rate, then you have to change consumer's behavior, not just find additional consumers. Thats much harder to to. Thats behavior modification, not marketing.

A high attach rate leaves a lot of potential for future sales growth of the main item and the supplemental item. It normally implies high satisfaction and user enthusiasm.

All in all the studios care about the volume, but higher attach rates give the potential of higher sustained volumes that can readily increase.

I may have a method that can track those hourly changes over time.I think the person who runs hdgamedb might be on this site and if so, maybe they could add something that averages the final results over each 24 hour period and saves those with some kind of graph.
Darin,

(1) If one believes that consumers will buy (on average) more movies the first month they've owned their player than any individual month after that, and

(2) One believes that a higher percentage of BD owners were new owners in December (compared to HD DVD owners), then

(3) Shouldn't one believe that BD disc sales are temporarily inflated due to them having a higher percentage of new owners?

IOW, we will need another month or two to figure out the real attach rate of BD owners, because the December numbers reflect almost entirely new owners. In 6 months, the average owner's monthly buy should lower somewhat, wouldn't you agree?I agree that this is one possible factor. If we believe the numbers for players out there, then more than half of HD DVD owners bought them in the last 2 months (the add-on is over half and it wasn't even available 2 months ago), but the percentage should be even higher for Blu-ray. On the other hand, I would expect more people buying a new game system to start with games and move to movies after they get bored with those or want to take a break. There, the XBOX360 owners may have moved past that point and when they buy the add-on, it is the new thing and so they should tend toward using it more right at first and then sway back more toward games (at least on a percentage basis) later.

There are of course multiple factors at play and one that I feel will be very relevant is big titles. I could be wrong, but I think things like "Casino Royale" could get quite a few more people over to start using their PS3s for HD movies. I just see a base that should be easy to advertise to. I'm not even close to being in advertising, but if it were my job I would want to pound home the message that if you already own a PS3 you could be watching movies in HD instead of DVD and you don't even have to go buy anything extra to make the HD movie work. Although the remote is nice and a promotion with the remote might be a good thing. Like, buy a Bond box set on Blu-ray and get a free PS3 remote.

--Darin

I think the person who runs hdgamedb might be on this site and if so, maybe they could add something that averages the final results over each 24 hour period and saves those with some kind of graph.
I agree that this is one possible factor. If we believe the numbers for players out there, then more than half of HD DVD owners bought them in the last 2 months (the add-on is over half and it wasn't even available 2 months ago), but the percentage should be even higher for Blu-ray. On the other hand, I would expect more people buying a new game system to start with games and move to movies after they get bored with those or want to take a break. There, the XBOX360 owners may have moved past that point and when they buy the add-on, it is the new thing and so they should tend toward using it more right at first and then sway back more toward games (at least on a percentage basis) later.

There are of course multiple factors at play and one that I feel will be very relevant is big titles. I could be wrong, but I think things like "Casino Royale" could get quite a few more people over to start using their PS3s for HD movies. I just see a base that should be easy to advertise to.

--Darin

Fair enough. There's also the fact that supply constraints made getting the PS3 hard for anyone but the most tenacious. Those people tended to be gamers rather than AV buffs. Now that AV geeks can easily get their hands on them, the percent used for movies may go up. In other words, the first 2 months sample of PS3 owners was artificially skewed toward gamers.

400,000 PS3's was weeks ago also though. Tom Adams - the analyst in question - may or may not know what he is talking about... we just don't know. He could very well be pulling all of his information from public sources that we ourselves have been discussing on these boards over the last couple of months.

Hopefully soon, we get some add-on sales numbers from NPD or someone else.

Before I make my post, let me preface it by saying that I expect there to be more HD-DVD standalone players purchased than BD. That being said...

I think these analysts are pulling the numbers out of somewhere south of their waistebands. I'll believe numbers when I see press releases from the DVD Forum and the BDA, or a reputable sales tracking company. If those numbers are correct, then HD-DVD is doing better than DVD did at launch in 1997, and that would really be something for the DVD Forum to be proud of. But since they haven't said anything, I have a hard time believing it.

(I'm hearing the $550 Samsung is the better movie player).I'm not sure where you heard that, but I've owned both and I definitely think the PS3 is better. I am amazed at how fast it does things. I haven't done a bunch of head-to-head for images and now sold the Samsung to a friend. From memory one movie looked better to me with the PS3, but maybe I had something set wrong with the Samsung the day I played that movie on there as a friend with the Panasonic player and the same projector as me said it looked better on there than the Samsung at my house. I'm pretty sure that the Samsung has the Chroma Upsampling Error like the HD-A1. The PS3 doesn't, but I don't think that was the difference.

--Darin

The PS3 is a standalone player by every definition of the word, including the dictionary. No matter how much you like it
The 360 addon is not, as it requires a $300 minimunm game console in order to function (or a $1000+ PC)

I'll repost for you, because I guess you didn't get it the first time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo
"And that fits the PS3. It has within itself all that is necessary for playback, and is independant of other devices to do so.

Seems to be more of the prevailing attitude of anti-game system snobbery than anything."



What you don't understand is that YOU don't get to decide weather or not the PS3 is considered a stand alone. You can argue all you want, you can post a million times, but to the vast majority, including the most die hard of BD supporters, the PS3 is a video game system and not a standalone player.

If you go to any web site that sells HD players and gaming systems, which section do you think you would find the PS3? The console area. Will any of the custom HT installation houses sell the PS3 as a BD player? No. You're not going to get much support on this one bro no matter how bad you want it.

Do you consider a Media Center PC an upscaling standalone DVD player? I mean, it works as a DVD player right out of the box, with a remote and everything. According to your logic it fits. According to your logic a riding lawnmower is a car and a moped is a motorcycle and a scimboard is a surfboard. We label things for a reason...to set them apart so we know what they are actually for.

And again, I own a PS3 as a BD player, but I do not agree with you.

What people arent going to be able to count and dont realize is even if the PS3 is used by about 10 to 15% of people regularly that still leaves close to a million now and soon to be many more that still have that option and will probably use it at some point. Even if it is 5 times a year that is still added sales for Blu Ray. If nothing Changes and the Spiderman movies and Pirates Movies both come exclusively to Blu Ray (Probably near April or May to coincide with the 3rd movie of each series) Then your random PS3 gamer might pick up these titles. Or they might want Alien Vs Predator or one of many other exclusive BD titles. They dont have to buy 2-3 titles a week like some of us but that fact there are going to be many more exclusive BD titles (unless some thing major happens) gives these gamers many, many options and will definitely help BD sales.


Alright, let'f follow you logic to its ultimate demise. You say count 1 million PS3's all as BD players, because some game may pick up 5 high profile titles a year. So that would be 5 million BD disc sales if EVERYONE with a BD player buys these 5 magic titles. So 250,000 HD-DVD players (standalones and Xbox) vs 1,000,000 PS3.

Okay, now lets say on average, every HD-DVD owner buys 2 discs per month (thats about my average DVD purchase level and I think I'm typical in this area). So each owner is buying 24 discs per year, compared to the casual gamers 5 discs per year. This means 6,000,000 HD-DVD discs to the 5,000,000 BD discs. Now maybe the 25,000 standalone BD owners buy 24 discs per year too for 600,000 more discs. This means HD-DVD still outsells BD by a narrow margin.

So again, by your logic, even with more PS3's in the field, they still won't sell as much software as HD-DVD. Maybe if they are lucky it will be even. Now cut to the movie studios that use attach rate to determine which format to support. Well, the HD-DVD attach rate is over 4X better for HD-DVD, which means that is the way the studios would swing.

So by your logic, BD is still in dire straights if EVERY PS3 user used it rarely for big title releases.

Alright, let'f follow you logic to its ultimate demise. You say count 1 million PS3's all as BD players, because some game may pick up 5 high profile titles a year. So that would be 5 million BD disc sales if EVERYONE with a BD player buys these 5 magic titles. So 250,000 HD-DVD players (standalones and Xbox) vs 1,000,000 PS3.

Okay, now lets say on average, every HD-DVD owner buys 2 discs per month (thats about my average DVD purchase level and I think I'm typical in this area). So each owner is buying 24 discs per year, compared to the casual gamers 5 discs per year. This means 6,000,000 HD-DVD discs to the 5,000,000 BD discs. Now maybe the 25,000 standalone BD owners buy 24 discs per year too for 600,000 more discs. This means HD-DVD still outsells BD by a narrow margin.

So again, by your logic, even with more PS3's in the field, they still won't sell as much software as HD-DVD. Maybe if they are lucky it will be even. Now cut to the movie studios that use attach rate to determine which format to support. Well, the HD-DVD attach rate is over 4X better for HD-DVD, which means that is the way the studios would swing.This is why what we need is some kind of effective rate. Basically, it gets complicated with different attach rates for different kinds of groups as you point out. So, if 40% use it even once in a long while and 10% use it a lot, then maybe it averages out to 20% effectively when comparing to a movie only player. Or maybe those numbers are lower. Either way if we really want to understand the subject I think we need to get beyond the counting of every PS3 as if it is equivalent to a standalone player (or whatever word somebody wants to use to differentiate these) as well as counting them as nothing, which I'm guessing we agree on. Unfortunately, this complication can make it hard to compare markets, but hopefully we will get better information with time.

--Darin

Man reading this thread is making my head spin. All of these predictions and surmising is like predicting what the high temperature will be in Rome on December 14, 2009. Only time will tell. You would think that some of you guys were making money on each sale of a BD or HD-DVD player. Just take a deep breath and relax.

The PS3 is going to kill BD.

Here is why:

BD is currently expensive to produce. CEs are releasing BDs, but have found that the PS3 is stealing all sales because it can be sold for $499. The cheapest BD player is going to be $799 MSRP. That is $300 more expensive.

FOR EVERY CE MADE PLAYER 25 PS3s ARE SOLD

Wow. That is just amazing. Throw in that the competition's format is outselling you 5 to 1.....

Sony promised the PS3 would HELP BD GREATLY. It is in Sales of Software.

Hardware sales it is stealing away numbers. A PS3 owner isn't going to say "Hey BD is great, I think I'll go drop another $800 to $1500 on another BD player that isn't really better than my PS3!!!!!"

The PS3 is not promoting new hardware sales.

The 360addon might be. If you want better AQ you go buy a player. If you want HDMI you go buy a player.

The 360addon might be. If you want better AQ you go buy a player. If you want HDMI you go buy a player.Not when the XBOX360 that has been reported on comes out. Although I don't know what they will use the HDMI for (it doesn't have to be for both video and audio, although I hope it will be).

I think the PS3 is hurting the Blu-ray player CEs, but many of these companies know that the lower priced Toshiba would have a similar effect if they decide to release a standalone HD DVD player. It is a tough market right now for them to figure out what to do in given these lower priced models from what I've heard. But, I have always been of the mind that one lower priced player could way outsell multiple higher priced players and that is basically what I said after Toshiba announced the $499 price point a year ago. If software sales from one side beat the other over the next year or two then I think that will be much more important to victory than how many CE companies support each. I'm sure some would disagree with this, but that is why I think it is way more important for Toshiba to get more software support than more CE company support, unless that CE company support is low priced players that will bring the software support.

BTW: On your comment about hearing that Toshiba was making some profit on the first gen, that would match up with what some have heard about the higher end model (the XA1). Were you talking about the A1 or XA1 when you claimed they were making a profit on each one? And I hope you don't let yourself get taken by statements like those ones from the Toshiba guy in Australia who made it pretty clear that he wasn't in a position to know. That press release could be used to teach people how to look for tricks from companies that are meant to get them to believe things that the press release doesn't actually say. I would hope that people here become aware of techniques like those.

--Darin

This is why what we need is some kind of effective rate. Basically, it gets complicated with different attach rates for different kinds of groups as you point out. So, if 40% use it even once in a long while and 10% use it a lot, then maybe it averages out to 20% effectively when comparing to a movie only player. Or maybe those numbers are lower. Either way if we really want to understand the subject I think we need to get beyond the counting of every PS3 as if it is equivalent to a standalone player (or whatever word somebody wants to use to differentiate these) as well as counting them as nothing, which I'm guessing we agree on. Unfortunately, this complication can make it hard to compare markets, but hopefully we will get better information with time.

--Darin

I'm not sure why more can't get a grasp this easy concept. Great post.

The PS3 is going to kill BD.

Here is why:

BD is currently expensive to produce. CEs are releasing BDs, but have found that the PS3 is stealing all sales because it can be sold for $499. The cheapest BD player is going to be $799 MSRP. That is $300 more expensive.

FOR EVERY CE MADE PLAYER 25 PS3s ARE SOLD

Wow. That is just amazing. Throw in that the competition's format is outselling you 5 to 1.....

Sony promised the PS3 would HELP BD GREATLY. It is in Sales of Software.

Hardware sales it is stealing away numbers. A PS3 owner isn't going to say "Hey BD is great, I think I'll go drop another $800 to $1500 on another BD player that isn't really better than my PS3!!!!!"

The PS3 is not promoting new hardware sales.

The 360addon might be. If you want better AQ you go buy a player. If you want HDMI you go buy a player.
none of this is any surprise to most of us.

the hardware makers must know something important noone else does :p

i think the "1st round KO theory" is all that remains of trying to make sense of it (they thought all the support would result in a first round KO of hd-dvd).

The PS3 is going to kill BD.

Here is why:

BD is currently expensive to produce. CEs are releasing BDs, but have found that the PS3 is stealing all sales because it can be sold for $499. The cheapest BD player is going to be $799 MSRP. That is $300 more expensive.

FOR EVERY CE MADE PLAYER 25 PS3s ARE SOLD

Wow. That is just amazing. Throw in that the competition's format is outselling you 5 to 1.....

Sony promised the PS3 would HELP BD GREATLY. It is in Sales of Software.

Hardware sales it is stealing away numbers. A PS3 owner isn't going to say "Hey BD is great, I think I'll go drop another $800 to $1500 on another BD player that isn't really better than my PS3!!!!!"

The PS3 is not promoting new hardware sales.

The 360addon might be. If you want better AQ you go buy a player. If you want HDMI you go buy a player.

I would hate to be any other company than Toshiba or Sony during the first couple years of the "war". There just seems to be so little return after so much effort and developent...at least until players can be manufactured at lower costs and not be undercut by the usual suspects on both sides.

The PS3 is going to kill BD.

Here is why:

BD is currently expensive to produce. CEs are releasing BDs, but have found that the PS3 is stealing all sales because it can be sold for $499. The cheapest BD player is going to be $799 MSRP. That is $300 more expensive.

FOR EVERY CE MADE PLAYER 25 PS3s ARE SOLD

Wow. That is just amazing. Throw in that the competition's format is outselling you 5 to 1.....

Sony promised the PS3 would HELP BD GREATLY. It is in Sales of Software.

Hardware sales it is stealing away numbers. A PS3 owner isn't going to say "Hey BD is great, I think I'll go drop another $800 to $1500 on another BD player that isn't really better than my PS3!!!!!"

The PS3 is not promoting new hardware sales.

The 360addon might be. If you want better AQ you go buy a player. If you want HDMI you go buy a player.

so let me put all these in simplier words... Exclusive BD CE supporters = naive suckers ? :eek:

I think the PS3 is hurting the Blu-ray player CEs, but many of these companies know that the lower priced Toshiba would have a similar effect if they decide to release a standalone HD DVD player.
--Darin

It's my opinion that very few people make money in player sales anymore, except maybe the Chinese. All the money is in the IP. That's why the only CE manufactures you see making players have IP in one or both formats. If BD wins, for example, I bet Pioneer will make its money off the royalties more so than any players they sell.

The only people making and selling razors are the people who own the rights to the razorblades. In an odd paradox, the CE companies aren't making money off CE's, they will make it off IP.

If that is the case, they don't really mind if the PS3 gets all the sales. They don't care who physically produces the player, they get their money so long as BD sells.

But that's just my hunch.

I'm not sure where you heard that, but I've owned both and I definitely think the PS3 is better. I am amazed at how fast it does things. I haven't done a bunch of head-to-head for images and now sold the Samsung to a friend. From memory one movie looked better to me with the PS3, but maybe I had something set wrong with the Samsung the day I played that movie on there as a friend with the Panasonic player and the same projector as me said it looked better on there than the Samsung at my house. I'm pretty sure that the Samsung has the Chroma Upsampling Error like the HD-A1. The PS3 doesn't, but I don't think that was the difference.

--Darin

I've heard it's responsiveness is better, but one needs to use the game controller as a remote, universal remotes (even the Harmony 880) are not compatible, so the other alternative is another remote to buy :mad: also, I'm hearing lots of storied of it locking up, heat issues, doesn't upscale DVD's, and trouble playing certain titles.

If that is the case, they don't really mind if the PS3 gets all the sales. They don't care who physically produces the player, they get their money so long as BD sells.


If that's the case, why go through the trouble/time/money/r&d in designing, making and selling their own BD players? Why not just sit back and let the PS3 do its magic and collect the royalties?

I've heard it's responsiveness is better,

The PS3 is very responsive. It makes the HD-A1/A2 look like molasses on a cold day. Fortunately, the 360 w/ add-on is very responsive for HD-DVD.

but one needs to use the game controller as a remote, universal remotes (even the Harmony 880) are not compatible, so the other alternative is another remote to buy :mad:

There is a workaround to get IR working. You need the IR dongle from the previous PS2 remote and a Playstation 2 to USB controller adapter. Then, any multi-function IR remote that can control the PS2 can control the PS3.

also, I'm hearing lots of storied of it locking up, heat issues, doesn't upscale DVD's, and trouble playing certain titles.

I've had mine since launch day, and the only time I had a lockup was when the ambient temp in my theater was 86 degrees because we had an unseasonably warm day and the AC was off. This is not a device you can put in an unventilated enclosed cabinet, much like the 360. The only title that's been confirmed not to play in the PS3, that I know if, is the Jazz Legends BD. I've had no problems playing the 30+ titles I've bought or received via netflix. As for upscaling DVD's, that's not done yet, but it's all done via software and is supposed to happen with a future software update. Since I have an upscaling player already, it doesn't bother me, but it does make watching SD extras a pain. Fortunately we're starting to see HD extras on BD titles.

The PS3 is very responsive. It makes the HD-A1/A2 look like molasses on a cold day. Fortunately, the 360 w/ add-on is very responsive for HD-DVD.



There is a workaround to get IR working. You need the IR dongle from the previous PS2 remote and a Playstation 2 to USB controller adapter. Then, any multi-function IR remote that can control the PS2 can control the PS3.



I've had mine since launch day, and the only time I had a lockup was when the ambient temp in my theater was 86 degrees because we had an unseasonably warm day and the AC was off. This is not a device you can put in an unventilated enclosed cabinet, much like the 360. The only title that's been confirmed not to play in the PS3, that I know if, is the Jazz Legends BD. I've had no problems playing the 30+ titles I've bought or received via netflix. As for upscaling DVD's, that's not done yet, but it's all done via software and is supposed to happen with a future software update. Since I have an upscaling player already, it doesn't bother me, but it does make watching SD extras a pain. Fortunately we're starting to see HD extras on BD titles.

Does the dongle really work? I'm gonna do some research. If it does, I am all over it. I would much rather sacrifice a USB port than buy another remote. Good timing, I was just researching the PS3 remote. Thanks!

Now, by all means, don't let me stop anyone from arguing. On with the war! People are getting way to friendly! :D

You were right. Here's a link. Ugliest work around I could imagine, but should allow anyone to use their universal remotes!

http://www.engadget.com/2006/12/24/control-your-playstation-3-with-ir/

If that's the case, why go through the trouble/time/money/r&d in designing, making and selling their own BD players? Why not just sit back and let the PS3 do its magic and collect the royalties?

Because they are trying to support their format and help it win. But in the end, which player their IP is on may not be that important.

Doesn't it seem odd to you that the only companies currently making players have strong IP positions in the products?

So in one breath I will say, yes, it looks like Toshiba subsidized their players and in the nest I will ask how does that matter to us?It explains how they got their machine to market at such a low price. Blu-ray didn't release their subsidized player until the PS3, so HD DVD has had (effectively) a six month head start on gaining market at the $500 price point.

I guess the point I'm making is, people didn't buy into HD DVD because it was necessarily better (either technically, or quality-wise), but because it was cheaper and more inexpensive. Now that the cost is equal for both players and software, and with Blu-ray Disc's other pluses (more studio support, more CE support), we should see a gradual shift in the market lead away from HD DVD to Blu-ray Disc.

Like your last paragraph...if the movies where purchased as presents, they would count as sales...guess when? Wait for it...when they where purchased. Not when they were opened. Do you have a bar code scanner at your house?I was speaking of software sales (that is, Blu-ray Disc movies). As PS3's may not have been opened until Christmas, it seems reasonable to think that Blu-ray Disc movie sales (software sales) wouldn't be fully realized until January or later. Having said that, Blu-ray Disc software sales did increase in December, likely because people bought movies as gifts as well (or some people didn't wait until December 25th to open their gifts, and decided to go out and buy some movies too).

IMHO, we'll see software sales on BD accelerate starting in January and probably through the summer (assuming there's no big revelations at CES).

I don't think you can get at WSJ articles anywhere without a subscription. Here's the relevant passage from the article:

About 695,000 consumers own either a Blu-ray or an HD-DVD player, according to Tom Adams of Adams Media Research in Carmel, Calif. But only about 25,000 have purchased stand-alone Blu-ray players. Another 400,000 consumers have Blu-ray because they bought a Sony PS3 game console. Meanwhile, about 120,000 or so have a stand-alone HD-DVD player while about 150,000 have an HD-DVD upgrade kit for their Xbox 360 game consoles, Mr. Adams says. He adds that those numbers are well in excess of the 300,000 DVD-player sales in 1997, when that technology rolled out.

Some consumers have dodged high-definition players because they already own top-of-the-line DVD players that add higher resolution onto regular DVDs so they look crisper on HDTV sets. For those viewers, there might not be much advantage to the newer technologies.

San Francisco computer consultant Tyler Dikman, for example, owns a high-end Denon 3910 DVD player that he uses with a 60-inch Sony Grand Wega rear-projection HDTV set. Mr. Dikman had heard the buzz about next-generation DVDs for a couple of years and shelled out $1,000 for a Sony Blu-ray player in November. After watching movies like Paramount Pictures' "Mission Impossible III" and Columbia Pictures' "The Fifth Element" on the new player, he decided that, although the text was crisper on subtitles and there were fewer glitches like blurring, overall the Blu-ray movies didn't look much better than regular DVDs on his Denon player. The Sony player also wouldn't play his audio CDs. He took it back to a Best Buy Co. store last month.

"I was waiting for this night-and-day difference, and I don't feel I got it," says Mr. Dikman, who says he still plans to buy a high-definition DVD player once the players have overcome snafus like the CD issue. Sony says there may be changes in future models, and overall, consumers have responded favorably to the product. "Of course, performance is affected by several factors, including what other components are included in the home theater system, how they are connected to one another and how the content was encoded," a Sony spokesman says.

Anyone who wants to read the whole thing has to go out and buy the paper. ;)

That comment is BS. The A2 didn't come online until about the middle of Dec. The total 1G production was 70,000. The last comment I saw was 35,000 US sales for 1G (old comment from one of the HD-DVD wags..). To get 120,000 the A2 would had to have sold 50,000 units in about two weeks. I you believe that, you will believe anything.
About Adams Media Research
AMR compiles and analyses financial and market data on filmed entertainment and related media markets, and analyses new digital media technologies and their likely impact on the media market. Its primary focus is the post-theatrical markets of home video, cable, DBS and broadcast television, along with the emerging market for digital media delivery over the Internet. AMR publishes the monthly Hollywood Aftermarket newsletter, which contains the findings of its research. AMR's market data and analytical models are also made available through its web site at www.adamsmediaresearch.com The company also publishes reports on the media markets, and provides custom research, strategic consulting, expert witness and fair market appraisal services for clients that include the top media companies and leading investment houses in the world.

I would like to see Tom take the stand on this and testify... ;)

b2b

What about the RCA and the Walmart HD player? Those may have accounted for 20k.

...I guess the point I'm making is, people didn't buy into HD DVD because it was necessarily better (either technically, or quality-wise), but because it was cheaper and more inexpensive. Now that the cost is equal for both players and software, and with Blu-ray Disc's other pluses (more studio support, more CE support), we should see a gradual shift in the market lead away from HD DVD to Blu-ray Disc...

Don't know how you can say in one generic statement that people bought "into HD DVD because it was cheaper and more inexpensive" instead of other reasons like "better (either technically, or quality wise)"

There are MANY reasons people bought into HD DVD and even changed their allegiance from Blu-ray...
-better value = less cost for better (yes, for many initial titles things were much better) quality...and even if the same quality...lower cost for even the same quality equals better value. And no, I do not think the consumer cost can be considered "the same" at this point either.
-broken promises...delays...etc... from the Blu-ray camp...
-better compatibility...players play CD's when some Blu-ray do not...
-whether any think it is right or wrong, avoiding Sony is a real reason for some...
-etc...

If you do some searching, you will find more reasons than just "less expensive" from quite a few individuals. There are many reasons I (and others) do not support Blu-ray...simple cost is not the only reason.

I think the person who runs hdgamedb might be on this site and if so, maybe they could add something that averages the final results over each 24 hour period and saves those with some kind of graph.
I agree that this is one possible factor. If we believe the numbers for players out there, then more than half of HD DVD owners bought them in the last 2 months (the add-on is over half and it wasn't even available 2 months ago), but the percentage should be even higher for Blu-ray. On the other hand, I would expect more people buying a new game system to start with games and move to movies after they get bored with those or want to take a break. There, the XBOX360 owners may have moved past that point and when they buy the add-on, it is the new thing and so they should tend toward using it more right at first and then sway back more toward games (at least on a percentage basis) later.

There are of course multiple factors at play and one that I feel will be very relevant is big titles. I could be wrong, but I think things like "Casino Royale" could get quite a few more people over to start using their PS3s for HD movies. I just see a base that should be easy to advertise to. I'm not even close to being in advertising, but if it were my job I would want to pound home the message that if you already own a PS3 you could be watching movies in HD instead of DVD and you don't even have to go buy anything extra to make the HD movie work. Although the remote is nice and a promotion with the remote might be a good thing. Like, buy a Bond box set on Blu-ray and get a free PS3 remote.

--DarinDarin,

I am here at AVS and just updated the site this morning to include graphs...

HD DVD / Blu-ray Historical Graphs (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx)

The interface will let you create just about any graph you could possibly want to make. Compare individual movies or view any of the "Top" list averages over the past 24 hours, Past 7 Days, or Past 14 Days. Since I only created the site a couple of weeks ago, as time goes on, 30, 60, etc will be added to the "Time Span" list on the graph form.

The response below is included from my reply to a similar post by Darin in the Blu-ray Software (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9371003&&#post9371003) forum (included to clarify why titles will disappear and reappear):

Thanks for mentioning my site! Glad to know it's being used. I just thought I'd chime in regarding the "mistake" of not including Superman Returns. Based on the time of your post, I checked the archive data ('cause you can do that at my site... :cool: ) and have linked to it below:

1/2/2007 6:00PM (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank.aspx?62E240ED0C264B4ABD547DFA9D0BE520)

You are correct. Superman Returns is not listed. While it would appear at first glance that this is a mistake, it's not. This is because the data listed on my site is completely at the mercy of the data transmitted from Amazon.com. It appears (from your comments about out of stock titles being listed) that there are multiple levels to an "out of stock" condition in Amazon's system.

Besides normalizing the studio names, there is no data modified when data is retrieved from Amazon.com. I am not able to comment on how eProductWars does it but the datasets I retrieve from Amazon.com include all available titles. According to developer documentation, "available" titles includes pre-orders. There seems to be a difference between availability and out of stock status. Maybe for titles they expect to be replenished within a certain time frame aren't removed from "available"?...(pure speculation)

FYI, I have also made an update to the site that now includes historical graphs. I have outlined this update in this thread:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=781308

There are many reasons I (and others) do not support Blu-ray...simple cost is not the only reason.My bad. The vast majority of people likely bought it because it was cheaper. In any event, now that price is no longer a factor (at least between the two formats; they're both still expensive when compared to DVD), I suspect we'll see a gradual shift as people take notice that more of the movies they want are available exclusively on Blu-ray Disc and not on HD DVD, as well as the various BD players available from different CE manufacturers.

so let me put all these in simplier words... Exclusive BD CE supporters = naive suckers ? :eek:

Fox and Disney were DIVX-exclusive for nearly a year. You do the math. ;)

If that is the case, they don't really mind if the PS3 gets all the sales. They don't care who physically produces the player, they get their money so long as BD sells.

If that is the case, than that is the actual literal meaning of the word "subsidize". Other CE's are getting paid by the BDA even if the PS3 is what sells the most? Actually, I think that is called a "kickback".


I guess the point I'm making is, people didn't buy into HD DVD because it was necessarily better (either technically, or quality-wise), but because it was cheaper and more inexpensive. Now that the cost is equal for both players and software, and with Blu-ray Disc's other pluses (more studio support, more CE support), we should see a gradual shift in the market lead away from HD DVD to Blu-ray Disc.

The flaw in your logic is that you assume the prices will remain equal for both players and software. If Toshiba rolls into CES and announces a $299 player, or some CE we weren't expecting like Lite-on or someone (NOT SAYING THEY ARE, BEFORE ANYONE'S PANTIES BUNCH UP) comes out and announces one, then that arguement goes right back out the window.

The bottom line is that for your gradual shift to Blu-ray to happen, someone on the CE side of BD needs to step up with a sub-$499 player.

And you STILL have to convince the average person that the PS3 is a Blu-ray player and not a game console. Again, if Sony didn't want the focus to be on gaming, they should not have called it a Playstation. Outside of the people on this forum, how many people do you really think see the word "PLAYstation" and think "Hey, it's a movie player!".


That comment is BS. The A2 didn't come online until about the middle of Dec. The total 1G production was 70,000. The last comment I saw was 35,000 US sales for 1G (old comment from one of the HD-DVD wags..). To get 120,000 the A2 would had to have sold 50,000 units in about two weeks. I you believe that, you will believe anything.

So just where did you get YOUR numbers from? Unless you believe there were no A1 or AX1 sales before December.

And if the Xbox 360 add-on could sell 150,000, you don't think the A2 could have sold 50,000? Hehehe, it's good to see you back and posting b2b. :)

Fox and Disney were DIVX-exclusive for nearly a year. You do the math. ;)That's why I'm figuring if not at CES at least by end of 2Q07 Disney and Fox get their senses about them!! Those two are definitely not the two to follow... ;).

HD DVD is clearly the way to go. I'm a movie collector and the prospect of ending up with as many bombs as Blu-ray has doesn't make it a desirable format. With HD DVD I have the confidence to buy a title I want simply based on the title...the quality is consistently great!

With as many standalones and add-ons out there, the studios just need to pull out some movies with mass appeal to have some HUGE hits on their hands. Why not bring out The Matrix?...and while they're at it, PLEASE make it another Poseidon or Batman Begins or V for Vendetta and "forget" to put out the Blu-ray version!... ;)

I love that each Xbox addon carries as much weight as a standalone... :cool: ...what's the percentage they're guessing at for PS3 movie player usage? If you ask Sony, it's probably hovering somewhere between 95-98%... :rolleyes:

Outside of the people on this forum, how many people do you really think see the word "PLAYstation" and think "Hey, it's a movie player!"And if they do make the connection because they remember that the PS2 played DVDs, I certainly hope they remember just how crappy a DVD player it was (not suggesting that the Blu-ray player in the PS3 is poor...just looking to prevent a sale!)... ;)

Maybe he has, but either way his numbers do not match up with the numbers we have officially reported.

Hmmm ... who exactly are you ... what is "we" above ? You joined just about a month back and have posted quite a bit here ...

If you are an insider, you should declare your affiliations.

Hmmm ... who exactly are you ... what is "we" above ? You joined just about a month back and have posted quite a bit here ...

If you are an insider, you should declare your affiliations.

I think he is "officially" full of Poo-Ray :p

Not when the XBOX360 that has been reported on comes out. Although I don't know what they will use the HDMI for (it doesn't have to be for both video and audio, although I hope it will be).

I think the PS3 is hurting the Blu-ray player CEs, but many of these companies know that the lower priced Toshiba would have a similar effect if they decide to release a standalone HD DVD player. It is a tough market right now for them to figure out what to do in given these lower priced models from what I've heard. But, I have always been of the mind that one lower priced player could way outsell multiple higher priced players and that is basically what I said after Toshiba announced the $499 price point a year ago. If software sales from one side beat the other over the next year or two then I think that will be much more important to victory than how many CE companies support each. I'm sure some would disagree with this, but that is why I think it is way more important for Toshiba to get more software support than more CE company support, unless that CE company support is low priced players that will bring the software support.

BTW: On your comment about hearing that Toshiba was making some profit on the first gen, that would match up with what some have heard about the higher end model (the XA1). Were you talking about the A1 or XA1 when you claimed they were making a profit on each one? And I hope you don't let yourself get taken by statements like those ones from the Toshiba guy in Australia who made it pretty clear that he wasn't in a position to know. That press release could be used to teach people how to look for tricks from companies that are meant to get them to believe things that the press release doesn't actually say. I would hope that people here become aware of techniques like those.

--Darin

They lost money on the RCA Rebadge.
They supposedly made or lost about $20 on the A1.
They made money on the XA1.

That was from my Toshiba Rep today on the phone.

I agree that HD-DVD had to look scary for CEs, but Toshiba was willing to offer them a subsidized player for rebadging to go along with a "high end," player they could sell for $800+.

Compare that to BD... with the PS3.

Today things are different, costs have dropped substantially in HD-DVD production. A $300 player will be released this year (if not less). That player will make money. So CEs can definately enter the game now and make money.

Man reading this thread is making my head spin. All of these predictions and surmising is like predicting what the high temperature will be in Rome on December 14, 2009. Only time will tell. You would think that some of you guys were making money on each sale of a BD or HD-DVD player. Just take a deep breath and relax. 50 degrees Fahrenheit / 10 degrees Celsius ??? :D

That comment is BS. The A2 didn't come online until about the middle of Dec. The total 1G production was 70,000. The last comment I saw was 35,000 US sales for 1G (old comment from one of the HD-DVD wags..). To get 120,000 the A2 would had to have sold 50,000 units in about two weeks. I you believe that, you will believe anything.


I would like to see Tom take the stand on this and testify... ;)

b2b

Well I spoke with my Toshiba Rep today and he affirmed that he believes about 125,000 stand alones were sold in 2006. I asked about the 70,000 number and was told 100,000 1st gen players including the Wal-Mart, RCA, and XA1 were sold.

So he is saying 20,000 were sold in 2 weeks. I can believe that easily.

Hmmm ... who exactly are you ... what is "we" above ? You joined just about a month back and have posted quite a bit here ...

If you are an insider, you should declare your affiliations.

I always thought that Wicky could be a Sony Employee and really, belonging to the site for 2 months and he had an absurd amount of posts and every single one of them pro-BD and full of FUD. So that could be a slip on his part, where he accidentally used "we," and got caught.

^ I have a hard time believing Wicky is anybody's employee! Thats why he has all this time to post his FUD.

Well I spoke with my Toshiba Rep today and he affirmed that he believes about 125,000 stand alones were sold in 2006. I asked about the 70,000 number and was told 100,000 1st gen players including the Wal-Mart, RCA, and XA1 were sold.The information that has been passed around has been that Toshiba only had parts to make 70,000 or so of the first gen units that were somewhat like PCs. Since CES is right around the corner it would be nice if some people can ask more Toshiba people how many first gen players were built. The information that Robert (one of their bigger dealers) posted that reportedly came from Toshiba was that they had sold out of the lower end models months ago and there were only going to be 70,000 of the first gen ones. He mentioned that at the time that the HD-A2 slipped and then there were 1000 XA1s that hadn't sold.

So, that 100,000 number for first gen players looks like it conflicts with information that reportedly came from Toshiba before.

--Darin

The information that has been passed around has been that Toshiba only had parts to make 70,000 or so of the first gen units that were somewhat like PCs. Since CES is right around the corner it would be nice if some people can ask more Toshiba people how many first gen players were built. The information that Robert (one of their bigger dealers) posted that reportedly came from Toshiba was that they had sold out of the lower end models months ago and there were only going to be 70,000 of the first gen ones. He mentioned that at the time that the HD-A2 slipped and then there were 1000 XA1s that hadn't sold.

So, that 100,000 number for first gen players looks like it conflicts with information that reportedly came from Toshiba before.

--Darin

I think Robert can chip in, but that 70,000 number was not for the rebadged units.

^ I have a hard time believing Wicky is anybody's employee! Thats why he has all this time to post his FUD.

Unless, someone is paying for just this job (not implying someone is) ...

The information that has been passed around has been that Toshiba only had parts to make 70,000 or so of the first gen units that were somewhat like PCs.

I've never understood where that number came from. I think someone said that many intel CPUs were available .... and thus the "truthiness" of 70K was born ....

The information that has been passed around has been that Toshiba only had parts to make 70,000 or so of the first gen units that were somewhat like PCs. Since CES is right around the corner it would be nice if some people can ask more Toshiba people how many first gen players were built. The information that Robert (one of their bigger dealers) posted that reportedly came from Toshiba was that they had sold out of the lower end models months ago and there were only going to be 70,000 of the first gen ones. He mentioned that at the time that the HD-A2 slipped and then there were 1000 XA1s that hadn't sold.

So, that 100,000 number for first gen players looks like it conflicts with information that reportedly came from Toshiba before.

--Darin I will ask at CES.

The figures were vague enough at Cedia that it is possible that more than 70000 first generation were built and that number may of refered to the HD A1 only. That could leave room for 20,000 to 30,000 HD XA1s and the RCA and Wal-Mart clones.

The Toshiba guys said they had no idea on the amount of redages sold and really didn't know the mix of HD A1 to HD XA2 but they thought it around 5:1 in units sold.

My HD player poll has currently 319 to 86 HD A1 to HD XA1s a 3.7 to 1 ratio.

70,000 / 3.71 = 18,918

Maybe the actual figures were 70,000 HD A1s, 20,000 HD XA1s and 10,000 clones?


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=768075&page=1&pp=60

100,000 actually sound as like a nice round number that an executive decision could be made from.

ie, " Why don't we build 100,000 of the first generation units and see how the market reacts? Our exposure is $100 per 10,000 rebadges, $50 per 70,000 base models and an offset of $50 profit for 20,000 premium models. " Thats an investment of X ( 1 million + 3.5 million offset 1 million = 3.5 million dollars) to seed the market." It is likely that all 100,000 will be sold."

I could see that pitch being made. Decisons are sometimes made on round numbers. ;)

I thought the 70,000 was based on Intel having only 70k of the microprocessors (P4s) used in the First Gen products, thus limiting the production run based on that one component.

I thought the 70,000 was based on Intel having only 70k of the microprocessors (P4s) used in the First Gen products, thus limiting the production run based on that one component.

Right. The question is where did that 70K come from - certainly not a press release by Intel ....

Right. The question is where did that 70K come from - certainly not a press release by Intel ....

Yes, great question. I was trying to recall that myself... I would do some searching, but Twilight Princess has beckoned me. Who am I to turn that down?

70K came from someone who said a personal contact at Toshiba told him that they bought the entire run of a processor batch that totaled some 70,000 CPU's and that they would be used in the 1st generation models.

No one every disputed it and it was repeated so often m that if it was untrue someone would have chimed in, Other sales figures seemed to support that amount as being in the ballpark.

The assumption was that after that unique processor batch was used up the production run of the first generation players would finish.

However, that was before HD A1s became hard to find and were clearly seen to be selling well. There is nothing to say that Toshiba could not have asked Intel to runnage around and find similar or additional compatable processors. Who knows maybe the last HD XA1'a had a different chip in them, probably noone bothered to open one up and look inside, we just assumed the CPU stayed the same the entire run....

Nothing would have stopped Toshiba from buying 30,000 more CPU's if they thought they needed them to sustain HD DVD sales before the HD A2 was ready....

Also, we don' know whether Tosh already had some of those CPUs from their laptop division ...

Also, we don' know whether Tosh already had some of those CPUs from their laptop division ...How would that be relevant?

I've never understood where that number came from. I think someone said that many intel CPUs were available .... and thus the "truthiness" of 70K was born ....Another Colber' Repor' fan? :)

So the official total number of players (standalone + 360 add-on) is 175k. What's up with that?

How would that be relevant?

If they got 70K from Intel (last batch) and they already had some, they could make 70K+x number of players.

Another Colber' Repor' fan? :)

Jon's daily news & Colber' Repor' are the only SD TV shows that I DVR/watch ....

So the official total number of players (standalone + 360 add-on) is 175k. What's up with that?

Well, if Microsoft's numbers are to be believed, and I think they aren't, that means that BR and BD have sold the same number of HD media only units.

In reality, Toshiba probably really has moved their 70K, plus a little more A2s, and Microsoft has probably moved around 100 of their addons

Well, if Microsoft's numbers are to be believed, and I think they aren't, that means that BR and BD have sold the same number of HD media only units.

In reality, Toshiba probably really has moved their 70K, plus a little more A2s, and Microsoft has probably moved around 100 of their addons

Just curious. You Dont believe M$, But you Do believe Fox?

Just curious. You Dont believe M$, But you Do believe Fox?

As i have stated numerous times today, if Fox were lying Toshiba and MS would have been all over them like white on rice, as the VideoScan numbers are accessible to all parties with a financial stake in this. They didn't call Shennanigans, so there is no reason to doubt it until proven otherwise.

Microsoft refused to provide a number of addons they sold other than something like "selling quickly", and it appears the Toshiba number includes all HD capable devices, so since the numbers don't jive (150,000+70+,000 does not equal 175,000) we're forced to conclude that someone is fudging their numbers. Since Toshiba is unlikely to be fudging the numbers down, once must conclude that MS is fudging their numbers UP, at least to the point of "150,000 shipped", when Toshiba was reporting sellthrough

Maybe the number is purposely deflated to boost the attach rate number. Anyways someone is lying.

Well, if Microsoft's numbers are to be believed, and I think they aren't,

Which numbers are you talking about ?

As i have stated numerous times today, if Fox were lying Toshiba and MS would have been all over them like white on rice, as the VideoScan numbers are accessible to all parties with a financial stake in this. They didn't call Shennanigans, so there is no reason to doubt it until proven otherwise.

Why would they? The BDA conference for what it was, was a rah rah session declaring themselves victorious (as if they were going to talk up HD DVD, which would have made for news).

Toshiba probably shook their heads at that Fox graph, laughed a little, then went about their business.

Toshiba probably shook their heads at that Fox graph, laughed a little, then went about their business.That "business" likely consisted of beginning development of a Blu-ray Disc player since their format was handily beaten in the marketplace.