Disclaimer: I realize that the concensus about whether Amazon.com numbers mean anything is very fluid. We all know that the Blu-ray numbers mean squat until they show a gain for Blu-ray...how convenient... :rolleyes: In my mind, the Amazon.com numbers are not concrete but simply a indicator of relative demand for titles. After all, if a title has a lower numerical sales rank it's selling more than a title with a higher numerical sales rank. What that means in regards to concrete sales...yeah, who really knows.

The numbers displayed on TheDvdWars.com (now eProductWars.com...check out the Political Books War... :rolleyes: ) are apparently updated once per day. The data on HdGameDb.com is updated every 30 minutes. The graphs that span multiple days (the Past 7 Days and Past 14 Days time spans...more coming as more data is collected!) use the average of all intraday sales rank numbers to determine the "daily average" for a given day. That's the average of 48 data points per day!

If I had started the site earlier, there would be more data but since all data is being saved, eventually there will be longer time spans (once they're applicable).

With that being said, if you think the Amazon.com numbers indicate anything or at least just find it fun to compare the numbers then try doing this at TheDvdWars.com...(read: this is not the place to dispute the validity of Amazon.com numbers...right now, it's the best we've got!...Thanks!... :) ).

HD DVD Blu-ray Historical Graphs (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx)

Top 10 - 7 Days:
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/Top_10_7_Days.png

Top 25 - 7 Days:
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/Top_25_7_Days.png

Top 50 - 7 Days:
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/Top_50_7_Days.png

Top 100 - 7 Days:
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/Top_100_7_Days.png

What's that other site URL again?...yeah, that's what I thought... :cool:

ENJOY!!... :D

Pass it along...it's easy with the Email This Page feature!

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

This is the latest update to the Amazon.com Sales Rank Data on HdGameDb.com:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=770631

Compare HD DVD to Blu-ray (Intraday):
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/MI_Compare_Day.png

Compare HD DVD to HD DVD (Intraday):
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/Clerks_Batman_Compare_Day.png

View individual movies (Intraday):
http://www.hdgamedb.com/images/avs/Clerks_Single_Day.png

You are a god.

Thank you. :)

This is AMAZING. Keep up the great work!

Sticky this, please. Someone. :)

Wow...very cool ;)

Good job.

Very nice. :)

How exactly is the thedvdwars wrong? Okay, they get data less often than you do, but does that make them so wrong, as you proudly proclaim.

Sorry, but your post just reads like some politician's smear-tactic ad campaign.

I love the data on your site, keep going.

I think, this is probably one of the most effective graphs we have available:
http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

If you set this graph to the Top 100, you get a very good idea of how things are looking. On Thedvdwars we get the Top 10 only, which is very few titles, thus giving us a less accurate average.

Sorry for the double post. I just set the graph to custom movie and compared Superman Returns on HD DVD and Superman Returns on Blu-ray.

Unfortunately, the legend covers up part of the HD DVD graph. I can see that it's miles ahead of the Blu-ray graph, but still I can't see actual numbers.

Hold on, their numbers are wrong or they update less frequently? Which is it?

Sorry for the double post. I just set the graph to custom movie and compared Superman Returns on HD DVD and Superman Returns on Blu-ray.

Unfortunately, the legend covers up part of the HD DVD graph. I can see that it's miles ahead of the Blu-ray graph, but still I can't see actual numbers.

I think Amazon have stopped selling Superman Returns Blu-Ray for some reason.

Thanks for all the kind words! It was fun developing this...it's always nice when databases and websites have an extremely important purpose... :p

How exactly is the thedvdwars wrong? Okay, they get data less often than you do, but does that make them so wrong, as you proudly proclaim.

Sorry, but your post just reads like some politician's smear-tactic ad campaign.Hold on, their numbers are wrong or they update less frequently? Which is it?Given that the numbers they download from Amazon.com become the basis for which they calculate both the graphs and all averages, I don't think it's at all unreasonable to claim the site is wrong. I will give you this much...the site is correct ONCE a day. How many titles like Clerks II (see last chart I posted above) need to be in a top 10 list before the graphs and averages would be wrong? Is it really considered "right" to take a ranking in the first few hours of the day and call that the day's average for calculating the charts and averages?

I don't know why this topic would appear even the slightest bit like a politician's "smear tactic" ad. The only possibly "offensive" (gotta love this P.C. world of ours... :rolleyes: ) or forward claim made is the single word "wrong" in the title. If the chart for Clerks II doesn't convince you that one data point per day might start to rack up inaccuracies...even to the point of being wrong... ;)...then I don't know what will.

The daily graphs make it evident that there's a lot of movement within a day. So much so that I've seen TheDvdWars.com off by over 100%. Just figured if everyone is "geeking" out over the Amazon.com numbers, they might as well be right... :)

Hmm... The title is a bit misleading. If somebody posted the data from amazon downloaded every 15 minutes would that make your data wrong? With that said, your site is very fun to poke around.

another tool to keep track of the numbers as most educated Hi-def consumers purchase online rather than the B & M stores.

Great work.

Hmm... The title is a bit misleading. If somebody posted the data from amazon downloaded every 15 minutes would that make your data wrong? With that said, your site is very fun to poke around.Given that TheDvdWars.com is "off" 23 hours per day, I think "wrong" is an accurate word to use. If another site updated every 15 minutes it would be more accurate (and even then, likely not given the number of "No Change" occurences with 30 minute updates). The degree by which the numbers are "off" on TheDvdWars.com makes them wrong, not just inaccurate. I spent many hours developing this and had a chance to check numbers against both sites and Amazon and without fail, TheDvdWars.com was off.

NICE SITE MAN, keep up the good work

Great work! Can you add shortcuts to specific settings (top10 last 14 days for example...)?

Excellent site, thanks for the work, Homer. By far the best site for tracking the Amazon sales rankings.

And please sticky this, mods. On the Blu-Ray forum as well!

Very interesting, it does appear that more frequent updating (consdering Amazon's sales rank factors time as a large component to its sales ranking) will be far more accurate. This method reduces perceived error, that is why it is more accurate and better to use (so DVDWars is more prone to error in its numbers, one sample vs. 24).

Very interesting, it does appear that more frequent updating (consdering Amazon's sales rank factors time as a large component to its sales ranking) will be far more accurate. This method reduces perceived error, that is why it is more accurate and better to use (so DVDWars is more prone to error in its numbers, one sample vs. 24).


Well yeah, taking one sample a day could be extremely misleading when it comes to a graph. What if the data is collected at a time when most purchases are not made on Amazon (i.e. early in the morning)? For a graph to have any kind of accuracy, it should represent the sales fluctuations throughout the day.

By the way, Ravens are going all the way! Bears are going down :)

GREAT functionality!! I especially like being able to compare specific individual titles, so we can FINALLY compare trends of HD-DVD and BR titles one on one.

Great job!!

Great work! Can you add shortcuts to specific settings (top10 last 14 days for example...)?I have added a drop down list to the "Historical Graphs" menu item...includes all combinations of comparison type except "custom" and all available time spans. Thanks for the suggestion!

With regards to the HD DVD / Blu-ray List (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank.aspx) and HD DVD vs. Blu-ray List (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx), you can create your own shortcuts by clicking any of the Link To This Page links that are scattered throughout both lists. Clicking any of these links creates a special URL that will load the page using *EXACTLY* the same settings as the page you are viewing (i.e. archive update, list size, sort field and sort order are all maintained). This feature is meant for more easily discussing specific lists. Post these special URLs instead of the plain rank.aspx or versus.aspx links so people can discuss the same list... :cool:

An additional change made is that the archive list on each of the "combined" and "versus" lists now goes back for seven days instead of three.

Very interesting, it does appear that more frequent updating (consdering Amazon's sales rank factors time as a large component to its sales ranking) will be far more accurate. This method reduces perceived error, that is why it is more accurate and better to use (so DVDWars is more prone to error in its numbers, one sample vs. 24).Well yeah, taking one sample a day could be extremely misleading when it comes to a graph. What if the data is collected at a time when most purchases are not made on Amazon (i.e. early in the morning)? For a graph to have any kind of accuracy, it should represent the sales fluctuations throughout the day.

By the way, Ravens are going all the way! Bears are going down :)Exactly! One look at any of the intraday charts on the first page (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9364719&&#post9364719) and it's pretty clear that one sample will not result in accurate averages, graphs, or rankings. Well, with regards to rankings, it would be accurate, just not current... ;)

Thanks for all the feedback!

Thanks so much for it but what I like the most is the top50 and the top100. One thing that the DVDwars kind of sucks with is getting good information about the format as whole. As both get adopted more its going to be easier for both to have 10 or so movies in high demand, but if none of the other movies are getting purchased then thats another thing all together.

arent we suppose to be dead by now?

For looking at one specific day you are correct, your method of sampling sales rank every 15 minutes will provide a more accurate picture among most titles. Especially new titles like the Clerks II graph you listed which was very low and shot way up in the beginning. However, your data will virtually look the same when spread out over a 7-14 day period. So in short.

For one day, your site is superior.

For averages over a week or longer, both sites should replicate the same data.


P.S. You would truly have to understand how Amazon calculates it's sales rank before you could ever trully develop a tracking system for items at it's website. That being said, going to the actual Amazon site and looking at different sales' ranks at anytime may be the best method for reviewing actual sales ranks. Look at it this way, it's almost certain that Amazon has an averaging factor in it's sales rank formula, therefore, Amazon's sales rank numbers are the best "average" representation of the sales of any item. Any sites effort to take these "averages" and average them some more really bastardizes the whole thing in my opinion.

For looking at one specific day you are correct, your method of sampling sales rank every 15 minutes will provide a more accurate picture among most titles. Especially new titles like the Clerks II graph you listed which was very low and shot way up in the beginning. However, your data will virtually look the same when spread out over a 7-14 day period. So in short.

For one day, your site is superior.

For averages over a week or longer, both sites should replicate the same data.


P.S. You would truly have to understand how Amazon calculates it's sales rank before you could ever trully develop a tracking system for items at it's website. That being said, going to the actual Amazon site and looking at different sales' ranks at anytime may be the best method for reviewing actual sales ranks. Look at it this way, it's almost certain that Amazon has an averaging factor in it's sales rank formula, therefore, Amazon's sales rank numbers are the best "average" representation of the sales of any item. Any sites effort to take these "averages" and average them some more really bastardizes the whole thing in my opinion.

But it depends on where the start of an Amazon day begins, and when it ends. In theory all you would need is the number at the very end of the day. When not knowing when the day begins, I think while bound to be off a bit an average over the whole day would be better then a single snapshot taken at a part that could be at the very beginning of the amazon day and therefore be off by a much larger number.

Amazon don't exists!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Studio Summary [Top 10 HD DVD vs. Top 10 Blu-ray @ Jan 6 2007 9:30PM ]


How are you dividing the numbers my answers come out a little different.

========================HD DVD=================Blu-ray
Studio--------------------------Count---------Avg. Rank------------Count--------Avg. Rank


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

20th Century Fox--------------n/a--------------n/a--------------------1--------------1,532


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lions Gate----------------------n/a--------------n/a--------------------3---------------1,075


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Live / Artisan-------------------n/a--------------n/a--------------------1----------------1,270


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MGM (Video & DVD)-----------n/a--------------n/a--------------------1----------------1,200


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sony Pictures------------------n/a--------------n/a---------------------2----------------847


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Touchstone / Disney----------n/a--------------n/a---------------------1---------------485


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Universal Studios---------------5---------------1,166-------------------n/a------------n/a


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Walt Disney Video--------------n/a--------------n/a---------------------1--------------472


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Warner Brothers-----------------4---------------544---------------------0----------------0


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weinstein Company-------------1---------------403--------------------n/a-------------n/a


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total------------------------------10----------------841--------------------10------------988


Its should be--------------------10--------------211.3-------------------10-----------688.1


Can some tell if this is correct? I thought you take the total avg. and divied by the number of titles correct?

The numbers on the website are CORRECT.

See if you can figure it out

Thx alot if you could have simply showed me my mistake, I would have been very appricative.

Petra, which website are you referring to?

Thx alot if you could have simply showed me my mistake, I would have been very appricative.The numbers listed in the average rank can't simply be added together and divided by 10. The quanitity of discs needs to be multiplied by each average rank to get the "sum rank" of each studio. Then you can add together the "sum ranks" and then divide by 10. As in (only HD DVD side for example):

Universal
Average Rank: 1,166
Disc Count: 5
Sum Rank: 5 x 1,166 = 5,830

Warner
Average Rank: 544
Disc Count: 4
Sum Rank: 4 x 544 = 2,176

Weinstein Company
Average Rank: 403
Disc Count: 1
Sum Rank: 1 x 403 = 403

5,830 + 2,176 + 403 = 8,409 / 10 = 840.9

I thought it was harder to hold a higher spot because of the sheer number of consistant titles sold has to be maintained?

Plus by your math it is the average for the stuido not the average for the title its self

As in compairiang MI:3 HD DVD sales = MI:3 Blu-Ray sales

Thats what The DVD Wars does. What you have done is some how changed the argument.

someone needs to check this math.

I thought it was harder to hold a higher spot because of the sheer number of consistant titles sold has to be maintained?

Plus by your math it is the average for the stuido not the average for the title its self

As in compairiang MI:3 HD DVD sales = MI:3 Blu-Ray sales

someone needs to check this math.By my math or by title it's the exact same! I was simply backsolving from the studio numbers. It's perfectly valid. Add up the total by hand and divide by 10...you'll get the number at the bottom of the page.

Example: you have 3 titles with an "average rank" of 1,500 it only follows that the original, total rank of the 3 titles was 4,500. Otherwise, dividing by 3 would never arrive at the average of 1,500.

By my math or by title it's the exact same! I was simply backsolving from the studio numbers. It's perfectly valid. Add up the total by hand and divide by 10...you'll get the number at the bottom of the page.

Example: you have 3 titles with an "average rank" of 1,500 it only follows that the original, total rank of the 3 titles was 4,500. Otherwise, dividing by 3 would never arrive at the average of 1,500.

Thats not how you find the average sales rank of a disk.

You cant say BB,SR and the hulk ( just fro example dont knoe if there the same studio just for the decussion) avg rank to get a rank on one of them. That makes no sense. Why grup them. Let there sales rank individually stand on its own merit. I would't take BB out circulation because SR wasn't selling. Im going to monitor the indivual sales of my product not as whole.

You what I just figured this out. You are trying to confuse ppl. You know you are grouping them studios. You should say that. And finally you can't call DVD Wars wrong when you and Them are doing TWO DIFFERENT STUDIDES.

Thats not how you find the average sales rank of a disk.

You cant say BB,SR and the hulk ( just fro example dont knoe if there the same studio just for the decussion) avg rank to get a rank on one of them. That makes no sense. Why grup them. Let there sales rank individually stand on its own merit. I would't take BB out circulation because SR wasn't selling. Im going to monitor the indivual sales of my product not as whole.

You what I just figured this out. You are trying to confuse ppl. You know you are grouping them studios. You should say that. And finally you can't call DVD Wars wrong when you and Them are doing TWO DIFFERENT STUDIDES.I don't think you know what you are talking about.

Title 1: 1,500
Title 2: 2,000
Title 3: 1,000
Total: 4,500
Average: 4,500 / 3 = 1,500
"Sum Total" I mentioned before...1,500 x 3 = 4,500 ... how is it "invalid" to backsolve (the website DOES NOT calculate it in this manner...I only did it to prove the numbers are correct which I did adequately prove).

The average at the bottom is not the average of the averages as you suggest it should be. That would be a useless number. Take the sales rank numbers for HD DVD and average them. And that doesn't match the bottom number? I'm going to GUARANTEE you that it does...that is if you're AVERAGING the numbers correctly.

You suggest someone should check it. Why don't you (just be sure to use the correct math!)...all the sales rank data is right up there in the list above. There is nothing being hidden. You have all the information you need to validate the numbers right on every page on my site. Add up the sales ranks for each studio on each side and average those numbers. Again, you will see the correct numbers below in the Studio Summary. Oh, and a great thing about programming...if it's right for one dataset, it's ALWAYS right! There are no games being played here. Averaging numbers is about the simplest concept in math. It's not exactly rocket science!

BTW, you are hugely mistaken to suggest that the Studio Summary does anything to mislead. I believe most everyone understands what the numbers are trying to represent and why grouping by studio might prove intresting. This war is being fought by the studios, after all. Why not include whether HD DVD or Blu-ray is ahead with regards to Paramount releases in the top 10? I thought it would be an interesting number to include. I most definitely did not include these numbers to confuse people as your strange attempt at FUD with regards to what is clearly correct math. Blu-ray "believer", are we?... ;)

Here's the list you originally referenced where you suggested the average rank of the HD DVD should be 211.3 and Blu-ray should be 688.1:

Top 10 HD DVD vs. Top 10 Blu-ray @ Jan 6 2007 9:30PM (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx?F6DAEF16A0454DE8B0584DAC6ABDEBD1)

I need to check my math and you get an average for HD DVD that is LESS than the highest ranked movie (lowest numerical value). Please tell me how the average of a group of numbers where all numbers are greater than 300 can ever be 211.3... :rolleyes:

With regards to TheDvdWars.com being wrong. Visit their site anytime during the day and compare their "Top 10" list with mine and then go find the live Amazon.com sales rank numbers. It's not like I'm somehow preventing you from confirming this claim.

Im not buggin my bad if i fliped on you. I just think it would be alot stronger if you just ranked by individual sales per title. Anyhow keep up the good work.

Im not buggin my bad if i fliped on you. I just think it would be alot stronger if you just ranked by individual sales per title. Anyhow keep up the good work.It is ranked by title. That's the "list" part of both lists. The Studio Summary part is just another way of looking at the same list...a summary, by studio of the list above. Sort the list above however you want with the field names. To view both HD DVD and Blu-ray in one list, visit the combined list (http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/rank.aspx).

Your site isn't any better than the other site. ALL of these sites are posting numbers that are not reflective of actual sales and do not have sales data from all the sources needed to make an accurate representation.

NONE of these sites should be used for reference and should be called out for what they are, agenda based self promotion websites.

Your site isn't any better than the other site. ALL of these sites are posting numbers that are not reflective of actual sales and do not have sales data from all the sources needed to make an accurate representation.

NONE of these sites should be used for reference and should be called out for what they are, agenda based self promotion websites.
Is Amazon one of the biggest online stores - yes or no?

Do these numbers show whether HD-DVD or Blu-Ray discs sell better on Amazon - yes or no?

IMO the answer to both questions is "yes". Of course we shouldn't say that overall sales in all online and offline shops must behave identical to the Amazon numbers. We should take these numbers for what they are: Hints about how well HD-DVD and Blu-Ray software sells in comparison on Amazon. This is not the end all number the whole market can be judged on. But these numbers provide the most useful information we are able to get our greedy hands on today. It's better to have somewhat useful data than having no data at all. So stop whining and complaining, please. Most of us are aware about the limits of these numbers. But still we're interested in seeing how the develop. And I *think* they give us some trend information how well HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sell generally on the market. E.g. we can see a clear trend that Blu-Ray software sales have noticably improved recently in comparison to HD-DVD sales. I wouldn't dare saying whether Blu-Ray or HD-DVD software sells better on the whole market today based on these numbers, though.

Is Amazon one of the biggest online stores - yes or no?

Do these numbers show whether HD-DVD or Blu-Ray discs sell better on Amazon - yes or no?

IMO the answer to both questions is "yes". Of course we shouldn't say that overall sales in all online and offline shops must behave identical to the Amazon numbers. We should take these numbers for what they are: Hints about how well HD-DVD and Blu-Ray software sells in comparison on Amazon. This is not the end all number the whole market can be judged on. But these numbers provide the most useful information we are able to get our greedy hands on today. It's better to have somewhat useful data than having no data at all. So stop whining and complaining, please. Most of us are aware about the limits of these numbers. But still we're interested in seeing how the develop. And I *think* they give us some trend information how well HD-DVD and Blu-Ray sell generally on the market. E.g. we can see a clear trend that Blu-Ray software sales have noticably improved recently in comparison to HD-DVD sales. I wouldn't dare saying whether Blu-Ray or HD-DVD software sells better on the whole market today based on these numbers, though.One of the "biggest" online stores? Amazon is not even really an online retailer anymore. They are an online "presence" or "storefront" for other retailers. Amazon really only handles books, audio media, and video media. Second, online sales still only account for less than 15% of all purchases. Amazons sales are still a single digit percentage of all sales of HD media. Maybe Blu-Ray isn't a good deal at Amazon? HD-DVD buyers get 10% off all purchases at Amazon you know... there are too many factors involved and way too small a sample. You are one who probably believes the exit polls are accurate. If you want to believe these bogus numbers then fine. BTW, show some respect to the AVS rules and don't call me a whiner or complainer. I didn't come here calling you names like a grade schooler, and don't come here claiming these websites numbers as fact and absolute.

Numbers don't lie... :)

don't come here claiming these websites numbers as fact and absolute.
Did you actually bother to read my post?

Hmm... The title is a bit misleading. If somebody posted the data from amazon downloaded every 15 minutes would that make your data wrong? With that said, your site is very fun to poke around.

I think you missed the point. Amazon sales ranking is a moving sales rank, whereas the dvdwars data takes a snapshot in time and claims that as the daily average. If I recall, dvdwars initially used to update their data along with Amazon but now use snapshots only.

The OP is essentially doing what the dvdwars used to do previously - report on the current sales rank and the intra day trend (which dvdwars never did) shows the relative rankings across periodic updates. The most accurate report is one that updates the sales ranking in the same frequency that Amazon does.

I credit the OP for putting out the most accurate reflection of what is actually going on in Amazon. The dvdwars site is not the same since it reverted to once daily update. It is now not a very accurate measure of actual amazon.com behavior.

Hope this clarifies it for you :)

One of the "biggest" online stores? Amazon is not even really an online retailer anymore. They are an online "presence" or "storefront" for other retailers. Amazon really only handles books, audio media, and video media. Second, online sales still only account for less than 15% of all purchases. Amazons sales are still a single digit percentage of all sales of HD media. Maybe Blu-Ray isn't a good deal at Amazon? HD-DVD buyers get 10% off all purchases at Amazon you know... there are too many factors involved and way too small a sample. You are one who probably believes the exit polls are accurate. If you want to believe these bogus numbers then fine. BTW, show some respect to the AVS rules and don't call me a whiner or complainer. I didn't come here calling you names like a grade schooler, and don't come here claiming these websites numbers as fact and absolute.

If one were to pick a single store/retail source for data - I'd say Amazon would be the most indicative of real-world preference given its universal reach as well as % of overall media sold through the site. JMHO.

Have you seen the relative sales ranks for HD VD v. BD on Amazon for the UK, France and other countries? Interesting data....

Maybe Blu-Ray isn't a good deal at Amazon? HD-DVD buyers get 10% off all purchases at Amazon you know...
News Flash -- Blu-Ray gets the same 10% discount. Nice try.

Funny how Amazon sales ranks roughly correlated to the actual sales that were reported several months ago (HD-DVD outselling BD 5-1 or whatever it was). So yes, Amazon's ranks do mean something.

Okay, HDGameDB stilll suffers from the same problem as TheDVDWars. It can't tell you how much better one format is selling than the other. Yes, HD-DVD is shown to be selling more copies by sales rank, but neither site can tell you how much better. The difference between the top selling HD-DVD and the best BD might be 5 copies more or 500 copies more. It's possible they could even be tied.

Personally I like GameDB's presentation better, but let's not fool ourselves. The data presented there really tells us very little, the same as DVDWars. It tells us so little, that it doesn't really matter if it is updated real time, or once per day like DVDWars.

Okay, HDGameDB stilll suffers from the same problem as The difference between the top selling HD-DVD and the best BD might be 5 copies more or 500 copies more. It's possible they could even be tied.
And how can you think that a DVD with a sales rank of 200 is equal to a DVD with a sales rank of 500? :confused: The rest of your argument may be accurate (although nobody is trying to put exact numbers on the sales, only stating that HD-DVD is currently outselling BD), but come on, not even a BD fanboy can say that sales ranks that are different are selling the same number of copies.

Okay, HDGameDB stilll suffers from the same problem as TheDVDWars. It can't tell you how much better one format is selling than the other. Yes, HD-DVD is shown to be selling more copies by sales rank, but neither site can tell you how much better. The difference between the top selling HD-DVD and the best BD might be 5 copies more or 500 copies more. It's possible they could even be tied.

Personally I like GameDB's presentation better, but let's not fool ourselves. The data presented there really tells us very little, the same as DVDWars. It tells us so little, that it doesn't really matter if it is updated real time, or once per day like DVDWars.

Wnorris, while we don't know actual shipping numbers, the actual rankings for both are generated with DVD and I believe UMD. That means if one movie is ranked 825 for HD-DVD and 1200 For Blu-Ray then the HD-DVD disc is selling more. You would be right if they were ranked separately.

We don't know by how much HD-DVD is ahead, but we do know they are ahead.

Wnorris, while we don't know actual shipping numbers, the actual rankings for both are generated with DVD and I believe UMD. That means if one movie is ranked 825 for HD-DVD and 1200 For Blu-Ray then the HD-DVD disc is selling more. You would be right if they were ranked separately.


It could mean they are selling more, but it could also be a tie. It also doesn't say how much more. If the difference is 5 units between 250 and 500, then is that really an accomplishment that you are selling 5 more units? From what I gathered from Amazon employees I know, there is a very narrow margain between ranks 1,000 an 10,000. Also, many weeks, if you have a DVD that can sell 5 copies, you will make the top 10,000.

If you think about it, ties are almost guarenteed for discs ranked 1,000 and below. They are highly likely for discs above 1,000 too. If a disk ranked 1,000 isn't selling more than 9,000 copies a week, then there is guarenteed to be at least one tie below 1,000. The lower the sales from 9,000 the more ties/multiple ties there will be. Do you really think any HD-DVD or BD disc ranked around 1,000 is selling 9,000 units a week just through Amazon? Just look at other regular DVD's that are ranking around 1,000. You will see they are titles that are nowhere near 9,000 unit a week sellers.

Everyone is giving way too much credence to the Amazon rankings. During slow periods at Amazon, the difference between Rank 1 and Rank 10,000 may only be 800-1000 units (meaning the #1 rank sells fewer than 1,000 units per week).

Let's just look at some of the titles that are outselling the current HD leader Crank (#267):

Robin Hood: Men in Tights - DVD (#263)
Anne of Green Gables - DVD (#258)
Airewolf Season 2 - DVD (#244)
Eddie Izzard Dressed to Kill - DVD (#239)
Denise Austin Personal Training System - DVD (#229)
White Christmas - DVD (#213)
Another Gay Movie - DVD (#209)
A Christmas Carol B&W Version - DVD (#198)
Celtic Woman - DVD (#161)
Love's Enduring Promise - DVD (#150)
Who Killed The Electric Car - DVD (#122)
Eddie Murphy Delirious - DVD (#88)
It's a Wonderful Life - DVD (#71)

Once you get to the Top 50, you start to see titles thank make sense for selling 1,000's of copies a week. I contend that any movie ranked below 50 is selling fewer than 1,000 units per week on Amazon. Likely anything below a rank of 100 is selling fewer than 100 units per week. This means that ranks 101-10,000 are separated by fewer than 100 units, ensuring multiple way ties throughout the rankings. It also means that HD titles, despite large gaps in rank, may be selling very closely (within 5-10 units difference).

So lets get real with the Amazon rankings. The sooner everyone realizes they don't mean much (if anything), the sooner everyone can quit arguing over them.

I wold like to see DVDwars or HDGameDB include a feature where you can select a movie and it will show you the other titles selling within +/- 5 ranks. Then you can get an idea exactly how few units BD and HD-DVD are actually selling.

Update: For other antecdotal evidence, I started browsing through by page looking for runs of discs that were in alphabetical order. As early as the late 100's, I started seeing groups where consecutive rankings were in alphabetical order. At first it was just 3-4 discs, but once you got into the 200's/300's it was groupings of 5-6 discs. When you got between 800-1000, there were alphabetical groupings of 10-15 discs. Now this could be coincidental (but I doubt they were all coincidence), but it is highly suggestive of numerous ties in ranking, with the tie breaker being alphabetical order. Since they start occuring as early as the 200's, I think this is further evidence that discs in that range are selling very few units.

Thanks for the reality check wnorris.

Wnorris are you trying to say to that their is some king of bias against BD then. There has to be a reason that they are a head if its really just 5 more units 100-1000 then we're were bound to see comparable BD products ahead. That hasn't happened. When you have a sight where 10-30 million shop on a weekly basis and we are talking about cheaper item ($20-$30). It is easy to believe that the quantity shipped would be larger then 5 units in a 500 point separation. I am sure when it comes down to the average top 1000 HD movie probably ships 1000+ unit a week.

Wnorris are you trying to say to that their is some king of bias against BD then. There has to be a reason that they are a head if its really just 5 more units 100-1000 then we're were bound to see comparable BD products ahead. That hasn't happened. When you have a sight where 10-30 million shop on a weekly basis and we are talking about cheaper item ($20-$30). It is easy to believe that the quantity shipped would be larger then 5 units in a 500 point separation. I am sure when it comes down to the average top 1000 HD movie probably ships 1000+ unit a week.

Sorry, I'm not saying there is any bias towards one format or another, and based on my observations, there is no possible way a disc ranked 1,000 is shipping 1000+ units a week. Maybe in a fantasy land or something, but not in the real world.

As for BD products ahead, currently the top two selling HD titles are BD discs.

Also I never said 5 total units sold in a 500 rank separation. I said 5 MORE units in the higher rank versus the lower rank. If you read my post, you will clearly see that I said I believe that anything selling below a rank of 100 is selling 100 or less units per week. So a disc ranked 250 may well be selling 50 units, and one ranked 500 may likely be selling 45 units per week, a difference of 5 units.

Also keep in mind that if Amazon actually has 30 million customers each week, at most 1.25 million people in the world have a BD or HD-DVD player (and count me amongst those who have never ordered a DVD or HD disc from Amazon). So at most 1.25 million people could effect the ranking numbers, and it is highly doubtful that every owner buys from Amazon, and on a weekly basis at that.

Someone with $2000 that they can afford to tie up could easily test my theory. Take a sub-1500 rank HD title and order 100 copies of it from Amazon. I'm extremely sure that would make the rank of that disc jump to the 200's, if not higher.

Wnorris are you trying to say to that their is some king of bias against BD then. There has to be a reason that they are a head if its really just 5 more units 100-1000 then we're were bound to see comparable BD products ahead. That hasn't happened. When you have a sight where 10-30 million shop on a weekly basis and we are talking about cheaper item ($20-$30). It is easy to believe that the quantity shipped would be larger then 5 units in a 500 point separation. I am sure when it comes down to the average top 1000 HD movie probably ships 1000+ unit a week.

Also by your logic, a movie like the B&W version of a Christmas Carol (ranked #198) would have to be selling possibly 5-10k units per week TWO WEEKS AFTER CHRISTMAS. This taking into account the movie isn't on sale.

White Christmas is even on a 2 week backorder I believe and it is outselling the best HD disc.

Do you really believe a disk ranked 1,000 is selling 1000+ units per week? Then how many units of Anne of Green Gables on DVD (#258) are blowing out the door every week? I've been tracking Anne of Green Gables since the first week of December and I never saw it ranked below the best selling HD title (unless you count the Clerk II preorder, which did best it for a few days). I think you would have serious trouble convincing anyone that this title is just blowing the doors off Amazon.

Have the charts stopped updating?

Have the charts stopped updating?

The appear to update for me. One thing you might want to check though. When I first booked marked the site in IE, I was looking at a chart of the Top 50 over a 14 day time frame, starting on December 20th. Well, IE bookmarked these specific settings, so when I went back through my books marks, it appeared that nothing was changing. Then I noticed the date of the 20th on the page, even though it was in January, and realized why it didn't appear to be updating. SO I had to fix my link in the bookmarks to remove specific dates.

Question:

Amazon counts pre-orders on it's sales rankings correct?

If that's so, what's to stop all those sneaky Blu-ray people from pre-ordering blu-ray movies, canceling the orders, then re-ordering them? Is that what has been pushing the blu-ray numbers up recently?

Makes you think, doesn't it. Hmmm. ;)

Question:

Amazon counts pre-orders on it's sales rankings correct?

If that's so, what's to stop all those sneaky Blu-ray people from pre-ordering blu-ray movies, canceling the orders, then re-ordering them? Is that what has been pushing the blu-ray numbers up recently?I would assume that cancelled orders also lower the ranking, so people doing that might cause a blip, but it would show up as a drop later. Not positive, but it doesn't make any sense that cancelled orders wouldn't negate the original order in the rankings in some way.

BTW: Since "The Prestige" is the only BD in the top 9 right now that is a pre-order, which titles do you believe they've done this for. :)

--Darin

I was just wondering. I've heard that there was some ambiguity regarding how the sales rankings were determined and wasn't sure if that would be a way to work the numbers.

Though, if they do lower the rank when an order is cancelled, that may account for the erratic graphs for blu-ray and the steady one for hd-dvd. :)

I've been tracking Anne of Green Gables since the first week of December...
There are stalking laws these days, you know. ;)

I agree entirely with your analysis, BTW. Nice and clearly presented as well. I tried to explain this problem the first time the amazon sales rankings were used to try and make some sort of format specific point. Unfortunately people are inclined to get invested in something past the point of looking at the logic behind their arguments.

Though, if they do lower the rank when an order is cancelled, that may account for the erratic graphs for blu-ray and the steady one for hd-dvd. :)I'm not sure what erratic behavior you are referring to, but some of it might be caused by "Superman Returns" on Blu-ray going in and out of stock. It is the one title I've seen that goes out of stock and can't be ordered. Then it doesn't show up in the list on hdgamedb.com (due to problems with getting the data from Amazon). From what I've seen that title has come in stock, risen, gone out of stock, fallen, come in stock, risen, ... I think there is (or was) a bug on thedvdwars.com site where "Superman Returns" going out of stock but being in the top 10 messes up their average selling price, since it hasn't had a price when it has been unorderable. I saw once where thedvdwars.com said that the average price for Blu-ray was over $28 dollars and there wasn't even one title in the top 10 that was that high. But SR was in there with no price.

--Darin

I was just wondering. I've heard that there was some ambiguity regarding how the sales rankings were determined and wasn't sure if that would be a way to work the numbers.

Though, if they do lower the rank when an order is cancelled, that may account for the erratic graphs for blu-ray and the steady one for hd-dvd. :)

Something suspect happened on the 8th at around 11-12 am and again today. Like a big order went in for Blu-Ray top 10 discs. I wouldn't put it passed some Sony exec to try and fudge the figures a little during CES.

I thought folks might be interested in seeing the Top 10 HD discs at Buy.com:

1. Superman Returns (BD)
2. Blackhawk Down (BD)
3. Serenity (HD-DVD)
4. X3 (BD)
5. Descent (BD)
6. Kingdom of Heaven (BD)
7. Dune (HD-DVD)
8. Superman Returns (HD-DVD)
9. Pitch Black (HD-DVD)
10. Terminator 2 (BD)

Buy includes out of stock items, but not preorders. Being sold out will cause the rank to slip though each day it is out of stock.

Something suspect happened on the 8th at around 11-12 am and again today. Like a big order went in for Blu-Ray top 10 discs. I wouldn't put it passed some Sony exec to try and fudge the figures a little during CES.I don't know about the 8th, but the one today looks like it is what I described above with "Superman Returns". I discussed it with HomerJay last night. When that one has gone out of stock at Amazon it doesn't show up in the data he gets. So, with a case like right now where it is at around #500, it going away will bring in another title at the bottom. As an example, if that other title is at #1500, then it lowers the average for the top 10 about 100 points from what it should be. If you go to the listing for SR on the Blu-ray side on www.hdgamedb.com and click on "Today" you will see that it started getting included again at 11:30 am.

--Darin

Something suspect happened on the 8th at around 11-12 am and again today. Like a big order went in for Blu-Ray top 10 discs. I wouldn't put it passed some Sony exec to try and fudge the figures a little during CES.

I think something odd is going on here too. I don't know if it's BD buying their own discs (doubtful, but possible), or some effect of some Amazon procedure. On the 8th and 10th there have been substantial BD spikes on the Top 10 discs between 11 and 12 am. Another similar spike appeared on the 6th at a different time of day.

It is odd that this at the exact same time during the day. I'm not sure what it would be. I guess it could be like I was saying all along. The difference between 500 and 200 may be a small number of units, so sell 5 or 6 additional copies of something and watch the sales rank leap up.

Question:

Amazon counts pre-orders on it's sales rankings correct?

If that's so, what's to stop all those sneaky Blu-ray people from pre-ordering blu-ray movies, canceling the orders, then re-ordering them? Is that what has been pushing the blu-ray numbers up recently?

Makes you think, doesn't it. Hmmm. ;)

lol. thats the most rediculous thing i have ever heard.

I think CES added a lot of confidence for people who were considering spending their money on Blu-ray movies. To purchase movies and build a library you need confidence that the format will be around for a long time and CES certainly solidified that for Blu-ray owners. It's only natural then that sales would go up after all the announcements they had. The conspiracy theories really need to stop.

I think CES added a lot of confidence for people who were considering spending their money on Blu-ray movies. To purchase movies and build a library you need confidence that the format will be around for a long time and CES certainly solidified that for Blu-ray owners. It's only natural then that sales would go up after all the announcements they had. The conspiracy theories really need to stop.

What good news? That they have ~ 40 new releases coming? What else? No real price drops and they had a good week for blu-ray sales.

HD-DVD on the other hand anounced new hardware vendors as well as a number of chinese manufactures which should drive hardware costs even lower. :p

If I were a blu-ray owner, I'd be even more nervous after CES. :o

lol. thats the most rediculous thing i have ever heard.

Blu-Ray ranking has dropped like a stone in the last couple of hours and HD-DVD is back in front.

I think something odd is going on here too. I don't know if it's BD buying their own discs (doubtful, but possible), or some effect of some Amazon procedure. On the 8th and 10th there have been substantial BD spikes on the Top 10 discs between 11 and 12 am.I explained most of the one on the 10th above. Just look at the lists and you will see that "Superman Returns" was not being included at 11 am, but was at noon. That was an error. On the 8th it looks like multiple titles jumped up on the Blu-ray side around then. A couple of the biggest jumps look like they were for "The Covenant" and "Saw 3".
Another similar spike appeared on the 6th at a different time of day.I didn't notice a big one there, but didn't check every timeframe.
It is odd that this at the exact same time during the day.With the one on the 10th I'm guessing it has to do with the guy running the site fixing up the SR error after he gets up or whatever.
I'm not sure what it would be. I guess it could be like I was saying all along. The difference between 500 and 200 may be a small number of units, so sell 5 or 6 additional copies of something and watch the sales rank leap up.It wouldn't surprise me if the numbers needed to move things aren't real big, but here is one datapoint. Last night I looked at SR on Blu-ray and it said there were 4 left in stock. The ranking at the time was #357 I believe (might have the last number wrong). I checked it maybe half an hour later and it was sold out. Then it showed #307 after a rankings update.

--Darin

Blu-Ray ranking has dropped like a stone in the last couple of hours and HD-DVD is back in front.I don't know if I would call it dropping like a stone on the BD side, but it did take a drop of about 55 points between 3:30 and 4 pm eastern. Looks like "Superman Returns" is dropping because it sold out last night and can't be ordered. That has taken it from #307 to #720 and it should keep dropping unless it comes back in stock.

The HD DVD side made a good jump around 2 pm eastern. Looks like "Serenity", "Casablanca", "King Kong", "The Chronicles of Riddick", and "Apollo 13" jumped up around that time.

--Darin

Couldn't find contact details for hdgamedb.com, so I'm hoping the people responsible for the comparison graph see this.

While I love what you've done, the graph needs a bit of work. See attached jpeg, and you'll get the picture (ahem).

Watch Warner undership Amazon to suck the BD average down ;)

Amazon numbers seem to be compiled on hourly time periods. There also does not seem to be a cumulative day ranking or cumulative week ranking, this makes it an interesting diversion for people who like to follow those lines on a chart, but a weekly raking based on total sales is what people really want to know, not a snapshot on one day or even average of 48 samples in one day because most people's buying patterns are weighted to when they are awake not when they are supposed to be sleeping, or when they're out to lunch.

The hdgamedb.com site gives some very good tools. Great job on such fine statistics gathering and putting together some really fine web tools.

I was most intersted in the top titles that are released on both BD and HD DVD to try to track the selling patterns and detect any fundamental shifts in the last 14 days (since it only goes back 14 days) for these titles. The Custom Movie Comparisons are very interesting.

Superman Returns certainly is telling an interesting story (even as it keeps getting sold out on the BD side and drop quickly in rankings).

World Trade center is another good day and date release that gives good statistics, as are ATL, The Italian Job. I think once you look at these titles, amazon rankings as an indirect way to determine mkt share breakdown is actually very similar to what is seen on dvdempire.com and what the studios are saying for numbers since xmas '06.

Actually, even some releases that came out later on BD is showing some surprising strength. Take The Last Samurai and FMJ (a terrible transfer that people seem to buy anyway) and the trend is very obvious.

While I love what you've done, the graph needs a bit of work. See attached jpeg, and you'll get the picture (ahem).

You mean where the key covers part of the graph? If you think that's bad, I've seen one title where the line actually jumps above zero and the settles on zero for a few days. Checking on the 7 day view reveals that the peak was around 100 and it then settled to around 200 after

When you sell out of titles that don't break 500 in a couple of week, to me indicates a supply problem. After all we know Warner and Paramount have sold more on HD DVD than BD.

What we are seeing is the impact of PS3 owners buying movies while the game selection improves. The current ratio on dvd empire is 3:2 in favor of BD, which clearly indicates sales momentum is picking up for BD and the HD DVD group need to re group and make their title annoucements soon. People are looking to Universal.....

You mean where the key covers part of the graph?
Exactamundo. HomerJay PM'd me to tell me that he's fixing that.

A truely impressive website. Much, MUCH better than thedvdwars.

Thanks for putting it together.

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

Seems dead to me now.

Personally, I'm waiting for the Departed preordersto go up so we can see how the two formats compare there. There haven't been any "hot" titles out for HD-DVD here in a while so I'm interested to see what happens then.

Frankly, given all of the new titles on pre-order for Blu-ray, it's a miracle HD-DVD is this close to even right now.

Chris

Personally, I'm waiting for the Departed preordersto go up so we can see how the two formats compare there. There haven't been any "hot" titles out for HD-DVD here in a while so I'm interested to see what happens then.

Frankly, given all of the new titles on pre-order for Blu-ray, it's a miracle HD-DVD is this close to even right now.

Chris
Well, one should note that most of those Blu-ray owners are PS3 owners.

Most people predicted that while the PS3 would give a huge boost to Blu-ray, one PS3 isn't equivalent to one Toshiba player or 360 HD DVD add-on in terms of expected disc sales.

Well, one should note that most of those Blu-ray owners are PS3 owners.

Most people predicted that while the PS3 would give a huge boost to Blu-ray, one PS3 isn't equivalent to one Toshiba player or 360 HD DVD add-on in terms of expected disc sales.

I have no idea what this had to do with my software post, but my contention is the ratio of PS3 BD users/PS3 owners is currently at an all time high. It's not 1:1, but I bet it's way above what it will be in May.

Chris

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

Seems dead to me now.While I moved the website from to a virtual server, the DNS is still running outside of the upgraded system. Unfortunately, a router needed to be reset due to a power outage. It is now back online; there were no updates lost due to this.

I am in the process of moving DNS to the virtual server as well so this doesn't happen again.

UPDATES (1/15/2007):

10 Minute Updates - data is now updated from Amazon.com every 10 minutes. It appeared that numbers were moving more since CES (I can only assume?).
Graph legend adjusted so the grid is no longer blocked
Longer date range graphs will be released shortly; there will soon be enough data for 30 day graphs.

HDGameDB comparisons can be misleading (at least on the bestsellers list). I wish there was a better way for the site to do averages. Take today for example, 7 out of 10 of the Top 10 discs are HD-DVD discs (BD had the #1 spot, but HD-DVD had the 2,3,4 spots). This is clearly better performance for HD-DVD, but when you look at the average ranking of the Top 10, BD is doing better.

The same logic that the site currently uses for averages would also mean that if 9 of the 10 top discs were HD-DVD, and the #2 disc was a BD disc with a ranking of 200, then the average would indicate BD has a better ranking. So the fewer BD discs that make it into the Top 10, the better BD will rank on average.

This just doesn't seem like the best way to present the data. I think averages should be left out of the bestsellars studio summary. Too many people don't think and misrepresent what is presented.

Yes. One would expect the denominator to be the same number of units for both. So, from that perspective dvdwars is more accurate since it gives the avg. rank for the top 10 for each format.

Try looking at the historical vs charts, they compare top 10/25/50/100 HD-DVD vs top 10/25/50/100 Blu-Ray

HDGameDB comparisons can be misleading (at least on the bestsellers list). I wish there was a better way for the site to do averages. Take today for example, 7 out of 10 of the Top 10 discs are HD-DVD discs (BD had the #1 spot, but HD-DVD had the 2,3,4 spots). This is clearly better performance for HD-DVD, but when you look at the average ranking of the Top 10, BD is doing better.Yes. One would expect the denominator to be the same number of units for both. So, from that perspective dvdwars is more accurate since it gives the avg. rank for the top 10 for each format.Thanks for the comments. I have added a note that will hopefully clarify that those averages are only listed for additional information.

I have also removed the shading that indicated which side was ahead. This was a change I have been wanting to make but have kept forgetting. Thanks for reminding me!

There is also a link to the "versus" page where the Top 10/25/50/100 HD DVD are compared to the Top 10/25/50/100 Blu-ray.

If I'm not mistaken, TheDvdWars is limited to the Top 10 average. And even then there are serveral titles with incorrect sales rank values (even after the move to 15 minute updates...some titles on TheDvdWars are stuck at incorrect values... :confused: ).

Yes. One would expect the denominator to be the same number of units for both. So, from that perspective dvdwars is more accurate since it gives the avg. rank for the top 10 for each format.I always look at 10 vs 10 or like # vs like # by going here:

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx

or look at the historical graphs.

--Darin

What gets me most nervous is that even after Toshiba's HD-A2 and Sony's PS3 have been released, the sales charts for both formats aren't any higher than they were before XMas. I'm getting the sinking feeling both formats are going to die.

What gets me most nervous is that even after Toshiba's HD-A2 and Sony's PS3 have been released, the sales charts for both formats aren't any higher than they were before XMas. I'm getting the sinking feeling both formats are going to die.

Or, possibly that both will end up being niche products for the next few years.
J

You shouldn’t read too much in the sales rankings, they are good for comparing HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray, but can’t be used to gauge the total number of discs sold. It’s totally possible for the sales ranking to go up and have actually sold less discs and vice versa.