I just checked the Amazon rankings for the HD DVD and BD titles. The top selling title for both formats is The Departed. It's ranked as #101 for BD and #99 for HD DVD. You don't get much more even than that!

It promises to be a great release for both formats.

i saw it at #82 for hddvd just now when i did my pre-order.

I just placed my order for the HD DVD, pushing the rank up to #77. BD is at #97.

I have the PS3 and HDA1 but I chose the HD DVD version for the TrueHD soundtrack.

There is nothing new on the HD DVD side to buy. The Departed being higher than the Blu-Ray counterpart means there are a lot of pent up demand for something to buy on HD DVD.

I just checked the Amazon rankings for the HD DVD and BD titles. The top selling title for both formats is The Departed. It's ranked as #101 for BD and #99 for HD DVD. You don't get much more even than that! Plus or minus 1%. :)

If the BDA's statement saying 80% of PS3 owners use it for BR movies is true, why aren't the numbers for BR crushing HD-DVD's ? There should be a much higher difference in rankings, shouldn't it ? We're talking over 5 times the installed base for BR players.

There is nothing new on the HD DVD side to buy. The Departed being higher than the Blu-Ray counterpart means there are a lot of pent up demand for something to buy on HD DVD.


That's one way out of a billion ways to look at it. Applies in the inverse as well. I mean I just watched Crank and it's a decent movie but it's no Oscar contender. We really are at parity right now with the format. The hot neutral titles are selling quite evenly between the platforms.

No matter what - a few days or even weeks of one format or the other being "on top" does not a format victory make. (BD)
:)

No matter what - a few days or even weeks of one format or the other being "on top" does not a format victory make. (BD)
:)

Indeed.

Trends are much more interesting...

People said HD DVD outsold BD 11:1.

Then they said 3:1

Then things at Amazon look to be parity.

Then DVD Empire releases actual sales data... BD is almost 2:1 HD DVD at DVD Empire...

Question is... will the trend continue or level out?

Blu-ray will likely pull ahead but HD DVD will stay in the rear view mirror.

Blu-ray has played most of their hand but we're waiting to see what cards are dealt from the HD DVD camp. January isn't the most important month ...many people are realizing just how costly the holidays were. By feb march things will begin to pick up. I'm hoping that we see those HD DVD players hit the market in April or so. Until then MS can focus on HD DVD drives for Xbox..that's a fertile market.

The PS3 will probably improve as well as more games come to market. This is the fun stuff. By summer we'll know who's executing on their 2007 strategy better. The format battle is still inconsequential from a consumers standpoint.

Yeah,
Currently it's #6 (two disk special edition), # 18 (widescreen), #66 HDDVD/DVD Combo, and #71 Blue Ray


These all lead the Full Screen Edition at #123

These all lead the Full Screen Edition at #123

I think we can all agree this is the best news.

I have the PS3 and HDA1 but I chose the HD DVD version for the TrueHD soundtrack.From what I've seen the Blu-ray version will have PCM, so basically the same if they keep the PCM at 16/48 (I bet they will have leftover space and bandwidth that would have allowed 24/48 on Blu-ray, but they will leave it unused).
I'm hoping that we see those HD DVD players hit the market in April or so.What players are you talking about? The HD-A20 was announced for Spring, which normally means May or June. Do you think the Chinese players are going to show up within about 3 months or so?

--Darin

There is nothing new on the HD DVD side to buy. The Departed being higher than the Blu-Ray counterpart means there are a lot of pent up demand for something to buy on HD DVD.


That being said but I know of a few PS3 owners who say that right now there is nothing worth buying game wise for the PS3 so they might as well get some Blu-Ray movies. Maybe that was the strategy all along :)

What players are you talking about? The HD-A20 was announced for Spring, which normally means May or June. Do you think the Chinese players are going to show up within about 3 months or so?

--Darin

Yeah I remember them referencing Q2 as a shipdate for some of the Asian players. Toshiba shipped their 2nd Gen stuff earlier than many expected so I don't have any reason to believe they cannot hit a April 2007 date for introduction.

If you look at the top 3 titles common to both formats, HD DVD has a lead in all of them.

Departed HD DVD (44) Blu-ray (65)
Babel HD DVD (542) Blu-ray (596)
Black Rain HD DVD (737) Blu-ray (2521)

I think that the Amazon rankings provide little more than entertainment value, but nothing else.

The main reason is that they're just rankings -- not sales -- and we don't know what tools Amazon uses to achieve those numbers. If everybody is asleep from 3 to 4 AM and nobody else in the planet buys The Departed during the same 60 minutes, does it mean that the title disappears from the rankings, or Amazon correlates it with its general sales trend? And if there's a correlation, what's the math and ratios that are being used?

And then, how does a ranking equate to actual sales? Is title A is at #80 and title B at #95, it doesn't necessarily means that A sold 15 copies more than B. And if statistical ratios are being used, we don't know if sudden, short-time surges and drops in actual sales are actually smoothed out in the rankings.

But above all, the Amazon rankings don't give us any indication on the actual sales in the real world. I mean, if I want something and I can reasonably wait, I'll buy it online. But if I can't wait or I'm in an impulse mode, I'll go to a brick-and-mortar store. And I definitely don't buy all of my stuff at one vendor alone.

thedvdwars.com now includes the stock in hand data. If you look at the changes in numbers for in stock items, you find that selling only roughly 100 disks in one day is needed to get into the top 200 rankings. Something like 10 disks to get into the top 1000.

We've been watching what amounts to competing lemonade stands selling drinks with plastic cups. The unit volume are so small and the swings so quick, you have to start to wonder if we have nothing better to do. :D

thedvdwars.com now includes the stock in hand data. If you look at the changes in numbers for in stock items, you find that selling only roughly 100 disks in one day is needed to get into the top 200 rankings. Something like 10 disks to get into the top 1000.


Yes. But Amazon isn't divulging the information on how the stock numbers correlate with the actual inventory in their supply chain, so the figures are still as unreliable as before.

For instance, when Crank has still 10 copies left, does it means that Amazon only has 10 copies throughout their entire supply chain? Or do they strategically divide their stock in separate chunks in order to boost sales when availability is low, and shortly thereafter they just aggregate and add more copies?

Quite frankly, I find the data from dvdempire.com more reliable. They're giving % based on comparative actual sales, and we're not left here scrambling with ratios and statistics. :)


We've been watching what amounts to competing lemonade stands selling drinks with plastic cups. The unit volume are so small and the swings so quick, you have to start to wonder if we have nothing better to do. :D

So why are we watching? :D

One significant thing from Amazon rankings right now:

The Departed:

HD DVD: #45 (high today: #43 - second place #316)
Blu-ray: #68 (high today: #57 - second place #219)

Those are amazingly high rankings so early in the adoption cycle. This is very positive for HD discs, since it definitely encourages the retailers to stock and promote them.

Wouldn't such high rankings represent significant volume?

Gary

If the BDA's statement saying 80% of PS3 owners use it for BR movies is true, why aren't the numbers for BR crushing HD-DVD's ? There should be a much higher difference in rankings, shouldn't it ? We're talking over 5 times the installed base for BR players.

"Use" is a very loose term. Even if someone plays the included BD movies for 5 minutes, they can claim that PS3 is being used for BD movies.

They should tell us attach rates ... just like we get game attach rates.

If you look at the top 3 titles common to both formats, HD DVD has a lead in all of them.

Departed HD DVD (44) Blu-ray (65)
Babel HD DVD (542) Blu-ray (596)
Black Rain HD DVD (737) Blu-ray (2521)

This is interesting:

Departed HD DVD (47) #1 Blu-ray (72) #1
Babel HD DVD (465) #5 Blu-ray (588) #6
Black Rain HD DVD (763) #7 Blu-ray (3717) #46

So you can see that, especially with Black Rain, BD buyers are actually buying other titles in preference to these common titles.

Rank #2-5 are all BD.

As the number of titles increase, the amount of choice available will make it difficult to fairly compare title against title.

For example, I might prefer to spend my money on The Prestige than Babel. That helps Blu-ray but not the title vs same title battle.

thedvdwars.com now includes the stock in hand data. If you look at the changes in numbers for in stock items, you find that selling only roughly 100 disks in one day is needed to get into the top 200 rankings. Something like 10 disks to get into the top 1000.

We've been watching what amounts to competing lemonade stands selling drinks with plastic cups. The unit volume are so small and the swings so quick, you have to start to wonder if we have nothing better to do. :D But Amazon stock is JIT and is scattered. So they can fufill a lot more than on hand stockage can indicates.

Also Amazon is the largest DVD online retailer, so the numbers add up quick, their stockage is in motion. and those sales can add up fast in dollar amounts

BTW 100 units a day is $2500 x 365 days = $912,500 a year in sales

Which means that analysis on Amazon's book ranking system is probably appropriate here:

http://www.fonerbooks.com/surfing.htm

http://www.greententacles.com/articles/2/18

If you look at the changes in numbers for in stock items, you find that selling only roughly 100 disks in one day is needed to get into the top 200 rankings. Something like 10 disks to get into the top 1000. How can you do that on that site?

(edit nevermind I see the notation on the individual title info)

This is interesting:

Departed HD DVD (47) #1 Blu-ray (72) #1
Babel HD DVD (465) #5 Blu-ray (588) #6
Black Rain HD DVD (763) #7 Blu-ray (3717) #46

So you can see that, especially with Black Rain, BD buyers are actually buying other titles in preference to these common titles.

Rank #2-5 are all BD.

As the number of titles increase, the amount of choice available will make it difficult to fairly compare title against title.

For example, I might prefer to spend my money on The Prestige than Babel. That helps Blu-ray but not the title vs same title battle.

Im sorry I cant help the BD side with Black Rain as Ive never even heard of it. Who is in it and when did it come out? Also I think as you say having more choices hurts a one on one battle with BD vs HD. There are people in threads here that are buying the Departed without seeing it just because there havent been any other HD titles to purchase. One guy said he was 100% gonna buy the HD version and he just found out that Leonardo Dicaprio was in it so hes now 50/50. Thats a little to much love for a format or a little to much extra money to spend when youre willing to buy movies that you know nothing about or even who is in it.

I think that The Departed was an excellent film. I would recommend it - though it is not for the squeemish :)

In any case, generally speaking people are not deciding whether to buy the HD DVD or the BD of Babel. They want to buy a disc for their player... so Babel competes with Prestige on the Blue side and Slevin on the Red side, and that is how the rank is determined - how it compares to the other discs available in the format of the buyer...

Why do people order a title weeks in advance, since there is no extra value in it?

What players are you talking about? The HD-A20 was announced for Spring, which normally means May or June. Do you think the Chinese players are going to show up within about 3 months or so?

--Darin

Hmurchinson and Snickering Hound both guaranteed chinese players by Q2 07, based on the MS/Broadcom press release. :-)

yeah but most HD DVD supporters guaranteed chinese players by Q2 07, based on the CES 2006 press release. :-)

Why do people order a title weeks in advance, since there is no extra value in it?

Some times you can get it cheaper when preordering. Several high profile releases have jumped $5 in price on Amazon once released if demand exceeds supply. Plus you can always cancel if found cheaper from another source.

Im sorry I cant help the BD side with Black Rain as Ive never even heard of it. Who is in it and when did it come out? Also I think as you say having more choices hurts a one on one battle with BD vs HD. There are people in threads here that are buying the Departed without seeing it just because there havent been any other HD titles to purchase. One guy said he was 100% gonna buy the HD version and he just found out that Leonardo Dicaprio was in it so hes now 50/50. Thats a little to much love for a format or a little to much extra money to spend when youre willing to buy movies that you know nothing about or even who is in it.


"Sometimes you have to Forget your head and Grab your balls"...A great quote from black Rain...

An amazing movie...Glad I grabbed it,I think it's one Michael Douglas's best flick.
Great PQ too...

If the BDA's statement saying 80% of PS3 owners use it for BR movies is true, why aren't the numbers for BR crushing HD-DVD's ? There should be a much higher difference in rankings, shouldn't it ? We're talking over 5 times the installed base for BR players.

They didn't really ask the right question in their poll. I believe their statement was something to the effect of 80% of PS3 owners use it for bluray movies. NOT 80% of PS3 owners have bought a bluray movie. All it really means, is that 80% of people polled after the launch systems came out, actually popped in their free copy of Talledega Nights to see what all the bluray fuss was about. Says nothing about 80% of PS3 owners buying bluray discs.

A misleading way to shout from the rooftops that HD-DVD is dead and Bluray wins if you ask me.

I think they did ask the right question. 80% of PS3 owners using it to watch movies does not translate into 80% of PS3 owners buying every single Blu-ray title that comes out. As far as dedicated movie buffs who buy up everything, I'd say both sides are about equal. Which follows to the point about Blu-ray getting content like Pirates and Spiderman out there. I think Sony and BDA realizes that disc sales DO NOT reflect the return they would like to see. So therefore they're gonna push to get the universally loved titles such as PotC out on Blu-Ray.

Blu-ray Departed is now ranked higher than the HD DVD. This is a bit surprising to me since it's pretty obvious that the HD DVD fanbase is a more "mature" with - how shall I say this... with more "grown up" taste in movies. The Departed certainly fits the Bill.

Blu Ray could outright win this format war, if they were to bring the price of their standalone players down to the same price range of the Toshiba HD-DVD players. They already have the majority of the studios on their side and this would be the daggar to the heart of HD-DVD.