This is the first of 5 threads. Please read this before answering the other 4. This thread won’t have a poll attach and it is just the introduction (wanted it in a neutral thread). This was a topic discussed a long time ago but that I thought would be interesting to start it again. The idea came to me a few days ago when reading some people asking if being on a tight budget they should jump in


The idea is simple.

No date is given and by winning I mean in at least 50% of homes that have DVD now and that every studio releases titles in that format.

I see 4 possible outcomes

1) BD (BD is in 50% of homes and HD DVD is more or less no where to be found)
2) HD DVD (HD DVD is in 50% of homes and BD is more or less no where to be found)
3) both BD and HD DVD (due to THD disks or universal players even though DVD is on the way out none of them have control of the market but either both or each have 50% and released means released on HD in one or both formats)
4) none (no format by itself or combined ever become the main standard for movie distribution to consumers, DVD either remains champ or some other tech takes its place but not any of these HD disks)

and so the 4 threads

each thread will have a poll with % of likelihood , due to only 10 choices the % will be in 10% increments pick the one that is closest to what you think . You can post moiré info in the appropriate thread or here.

There are just two simple rules for your vote to be considered legitimate

1) you must vote in all four threads for all 4 outcomes (even if one of them is 0)
2) your combined votes must equal 100.

These two rules are obvious and will help eliminate the brainless and the spammers.


here are links to the other 4 sections with the polls

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=796233
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=796235
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=796238
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=796241


PS Polls 2-4 have values ranging 0-90% poll 5 has 10-100% this is semi forced by SW and semi intentional. A poll can only have 10 choices and I thought for 2-4 0 is more likely then 100% while the opposite is true for #5 where none of them win.

2) HD DVD (HD DVD is in 50% of homes and HD DVD is more or less no where to be found)

Cut'n'paste problem there .... change the third hd dvd to bd.

thanks, corrected it. If you see any other issues let me know. I also added links to the other 4 sections

Stupidist idea ever.

I do agree that this is a pretty stupid poll. You're goign to get a lot of fanbois skewing the polls.

I do agree that this is a pretty stupid poll. You're goign to get a lot of fanbois skewing the polls.

if every poll that can be skewed by fanboys would be stupid then all of them are stupid because any poll can be skewed by people making stupid votes that they don't believe to influence the outcome

Actually there are two things working against it in these polls

1) it is public so someone dumb enough to predict something stupid we will instantly know that

2) there are 4 choices and 4 outcomes if someone , for example, voted BD=0, HD DVD=90, both=20 and none=(no answer) you instantly know they either cannot read or not bright enough to be able to add or fanboy enough to try and skew a poll to make their vote irrelevant or most likely all three

What additional information do you hope to get from likelihood opinions? Wouldn't it be easier to just have four outcomes and ask everyone to post what is their opinion on the most-likely outcome?

SCD

I don't see the point.

What additional information do you hope to get from likelihood opinions? Wouldn't it be easier to just have four outcomes and ask everyone to post what is their opinion on the most-likely outcome?


started off when I read the thread from the guy that was wondering what should he buy if he can't afford it. In it after most told him to stick with DVD for now, he asked how does any of you know who will win and the answer was we don't that is why we told you to stick with DVD if you are worried that you will buy the wrong one. I think most people will agree there is a chance this can be SACD/DVD-A (none) instead of DVD+/-R (both) or VHS/Beta (one of them). In the older days (late 2004- early 2005) when there were less fanboys we used to discuss the likely hood of the different outcomes. And I thought it is the beginning of 2006 and was wondering what most people thought.

As for a 4 choice vote would be relatively useless (Do you think BD is most likely to win, HD DVD is most likely to win, both and none). What if someone thinks two choices have equal probability? Doesn’t it make it easier for fanboys to make the results useless? How will it show what the guy thinks of the other choices? For example, I think BD is almost as likely as none, both means none and HD DVD has a very slight chance. If I voted in your poll the only choice would be BD wins and it would show much more confidence into HD disks winning then I really think they have.

I think the odds are both will survive but one will have a 65-75% share of the market and the other will have a 25-35% share of the market for HD movies sales.

THD disks will make it a bit tough to determine market share, but the numbers of stand alone players will make the format winner clear.

First format to $199 players wins 70% of the market.

I voted

10% Blu-ray only
20% HD DVD only
70% both
00% none

I see this as a nice idea. Lets watch the results.

I see this as a nice idea. Lets watch the results.

thanks, but if I had to redo it again I would have kept 0 and not 100 for the last one. I realy did not think anyone would guesss the chances of an other SACD/DVD-A would be 0

Interesting idea, with the summation of probabilities.

At least the half (or quarter) witted will be flushed out easily.

Why can't I vote that there is 0% chance that none will win? Keep the HD faith!

started off when I read the thread from the guy that was wondering what should he buy if he can't afford it. In it after most told him to stick with DVD for now, he asked how does any of you know who will win and the answer was we don't that is why we told you to stick with DVD if you are worried that you will buy the wrong one. I think most people will agree there is a chance this can be SACD/DVD-A (none) instead of DVD+/-R (both) or VHS/Beta (one of them). In the older days (late 2004- early 2005) when there were less fanboys we used to discuss the likely hood of the different outcomes. And I thought it is the beginning of 2006 and was wondering what most people thought.

As for a 4 choice vote would be relatively useless (Do you think BD is most likely to win, HD DVD is most likely to win, both and none). What if someone thinks two choices have equal probability? Doesn’t it make it easier for fanboys to make the results useless? How will it show what the guy thinks of the other choices? For example, I think BD is almost as likely as none, both means none and HD DVD has a very slight chance.

Got your point. Including a distribution with the decision provides more information to infer a result at some later point. As a gauge of public sentiment, it might be useful. I hope that the respondents are well-informed...

SCD

Current Averages:

23.7% -- based on 43 votes (Both lose)
22.0% -- based on 46 votes (Both win)
40.0% -- based on 47 votes (HD DVD wins)
46.7% -- based on 46 votes (Blu-ray wins)

Great job, fanboys! The grand total is: 132.4%

When I read your instructions I knew that this wasn't gonna work out because people wouldn't split up their 4 votes to get a total of 100%.
The difference in votes also shows that some people haven't voted 4 times.

P.S.: since the last poll (both lose) does not have a 0% option, it's probably safe to say that:

46 people voted in total, with 3 of those chosing 0% for "Both lose", thus not having a voting option.

One person only voted in the HD DVD category, but in none of the others.

But even if you account for those, a huge number of people did not split their votes properly to get a total of 100%. Either that or I miscalculated, but I don't think so.

10% BD Win
30% HD DVD Win
50% Both Win
10% Both Lose

90% odd doesn't seem to bad...

Got your point. Including a distribution with the decision provides more information to infer a result at some later point. As a gauge of public sentiment, it might be useful. I hope that the respondents are well-informed...

SCD

Not public sentiment, since the poll can't measure people who don't vote or visit this site...and in percentage terms of the population, virtually no one visits here and votes. It can only measure (and not necessarily accurately) the sentiments of those who come here and choose to vote (and vote honestly).

I think this is a good idea, but unfortunately too many people can't follow simple directions so it will probably get screwed up.

Great job, fanboys! The grand total is: 132.4%

When I read your instructions I knew that this wasn't gonna work out because people wouldn't split up their 4 votes to get a total of 100%.
The difference in votes also shows that some people haven't voted 4 times.

I knew that for some it would not work as well. Actually my first idea was three polls BD, HD DVD, Both. Anyone (like Kosty) that though both would just vote in both (i.e. Kosty's would be 90% HD DVD, 80% BD and 0% none) but then I thought some will mess up their voting and we won't be ab le to catch it. The reality is the 4 choices are complete and independent by definition it should be 100%.

Not public sentiment, since the poll can't measure people who don't vote or visit this site...and in percentage terms of the population, virtually no one visits here and votes.
so what poll can do that? are you just against every poll?

but unfortunately too many people can't follow simple directions so it will probably get screwed up.

I just hope enough can, I did my part. I put a link to the introduction in the title and in the first post, I reiterated that they must vote in all 4 polls and that the sum must be 100 in each thread.

I think this is a good idea, Anthony.

My vote:
60% BD wins
10% HD wins
20% Both win
10% none wins

I am conveying 80% (BD) - 30% (HD-DVD) probability of each to succeed. On the second thought, I would have given more weight to "Both win" probability by 10% (with something like 70% - 40% probabilities). Anyway, this is still close to what I think.

Missed this one

Why can't I vote that there is 0% chance that none will win? Keep the HD faith!

you can, Like I added in that section, just post in the thread I want 0. I could not fit 0 and 100, I assumed that even though unlikely someone would be here and think that DVD would not be dethroned from any of these, but then again some do think that niche would mean higher quality. Truth is I did not think anyone would really be that optemistic that to think there is 0 chance that HD disks won't be a success

Blu-ray still has the deck stacked in it's favor, on both the CE variety and content sides, so I gave it 70%.
HD-DVD is still alive and kicking. I was going back and forth between 30 and 40% and gave it the benefit the doubt (40%).
I don't believe that both formats will win (20%) and don't believe both will die (10%).

I should be going up to 12 BD's today with Fly-boys. I still have 15 on my BD prospects list, but only 5 left on my HD-DVD list...

UxiSXRD : there are four mutually exclusive outcomes. That means that the probability of one of these outcomes must be <=1 you came out with a probability of 1.4. These chouces are also complete (i.e. there is no other outcome that is possible) that is why the probability must =1. and so the four things added together must =100 and not 140. If you have not actually voted yet (in the other 4 threads with the poll, then please rethink your numbers and then vote)

bump in case anyone still wants to vote but missed it

Yeah I wasn't taking them as mutually exclusive for purposes of my votes (which I had done before my post).

Otherwise, I would have voted:

BD wins: 60
HDDVD: 30
Both "win": 10
Neither win: 0

hey nataraj, why did you not vote?

You have to use a conditional poll to get this sort of information. So, the kth question posed to the user is a function of the previous k-1 questions.

As it stands, the numbers do not add up at all.

However, given the available technology, nice try.

It would seem that:
-- both will win is rejected
-- neither will win is rejected
-- a slight tilt towards HD DVD (balancing out the two formally incompatible results)

the plan is that once the thread is closed I will take out the data of the 5 polls and compact them into a 5 column table (most likely more then one or colour coded
good - intent is clear sum =100 and voted in all 4 (and anyone that posted a correction that with the correction we get that)

assumed - these are most likely good but I can't be 100% sure i.e. someone voted 100% in the first three and did not vote in the last or voted 10% in the last one but did not clearly spell out what they meant

rejected - anything that really does not conform and that I have no idea what they meant

since there was some discussion in some other threads on the outcome, I thought I would bump them back up to give a chance to those that did not vote.

For anyone new, please read the first post a link to the 4 polls can be found there. Also the last poll (poll 5 of 5 thread) does not have a 0% if you feal it is 0% just mention it in the 5 of 5 thread

I finally got into tabulating the results

I will let people make their own conclusions on the results. All I am doing is putting the data into tables

There will be three tables with each showing the users and votes

the first one will show votes that follow the rules or are easy to interpret (i.e. anyone that wanted 0 for none did not have the choice so I accept no vote or 10% as 0%)

the second is the people that got 100 in total but they don't have votes in some other sections

the third is the what were they thinking poll. the values range from much lower then 100 to much more.

I also added a , between columns just in case someone wants to do more analysis (easy to save as txt and then open in XL).


good votes

user BD, HD DVD, none, both
AnthonyP ,50 ,10 ,40 ,0
apodaca ,60 ,40 ,0 ,0
Assayer ,40 ,10 ,0 ,50
beatboy77 ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
BiggNewt ,80 ,20 ,0 ,0
Bill0711 ,50 ,0 ,0 ,50
bluescreen ,30 ,20 ,20 ,30
chalex010 ,60 ,0 ,30 ,10
chefboy1 ,40 ,10 ,20 ,30
Chris_TC ,30 ,40 ,20 ,10
compson ,0 ,90 ,10 ,0
CoveX ,10 ,30 ,10 ,50
crobo ,20 ,80 ,0 ,0
DavidHir ,60 ,40 ,0 ,0
Deja-vue ,0 ,90 ,0 ,10
deria ,30 ,40 ,10 ,20
dialog_gvf ,50 ,20 ,30 ,0
DJWikiera ,20 ,70 ,0 ,10
dobyblue ,80 ,0 ,10 ,10
dsinger ,70 ,10 ,0 ,20
FoxyMulder ,10 ,20 ,60 ,10
Frank Derks ,30 ,70 ,0 ,0
fronn ,70 ,20 ,0 ,10
hassoon ,90 ,0 ,0 ,10
Ilka ,50 ,0 ,10 ,40
Jarod M ,10 ,20 ,60 ,10
joealtus ,40 ,30 ,10 ,20
jwakaruk ,20 ,40 ,20 ,20
kdragon ,60 ,10 ,10 ,20
khwiggins2 ,10 ,70 ,0 ,20
Kosty ,10 ,20 ,0 ,70
Ktulu_1 ,40 ,30 ,10 ,20
lorelevitt ,60 ,40 ,0 ,0
luddite ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
madskills1182 ,90 ,10 ,0 ,0
majortom ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
marjangsp ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
Mark0 ,20 ,60 ,20 ,0
md1953 ,70 ,10 ,10 ,10
merlin2111 ,20 ,70 ,10 ,0
moore ,90 ,0 ,0 ,10
MrPorterhouse ,90 ,10 ,0 ,0
navysandsquid ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
nyg ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
pointless2 ,10 ,90 ,0 ,0
ranman88 ,20 ,40 ,10 ,30
Rastor ,30 ,50 ,10 ,10
Ripnickus ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
rlsmith ,70 ,30 ,0 ,0
rover2002 ,20 ,80 ,0 ,0
Ruined ,20 ,40 ,10 ,30
skogan ,50 ,10 ,30 ,10
sparky3887 ,90 ,0 ,10 ,0
Steeb ,20 ,60 ,0 ,20
The BigRalf ,0 ,0 ,100 ,0
unsmart thing ,20 ,70 ,10 ,0
UxiSXRD ,60 ,30 ,0 ,10
vsbdtv ,40 ,0 ,50 ,10
Will d s ,20 ,20 ,0 ,60
WirelessGuru ,50 ,50 ,0 ,0
wnorris ,20 ,40 ,0 ,40
xradman ,10 ,30 ,10 ,50



good? votes

user BD, HD DVD, none, both
BLT , , ,100 ,
briankmonkey ,90 , , ,10
Purple Kerbie ,10 ,90 , ,
Silver-Fox , ,50 , ,50
studiotan ,20 ,80 , ,
What'sHD ,80 ,20 , ,
Zagor , , ,100 ,



? votes

user BD, HD DVD, none, both
10Drunks&aDriver ,80 , , ,
Andy Anderson ,20 ,80 ,10 ,30
anttimonty , , ,90 ,
arlrch ,50 , , ,
Arpeggio ,0 ,90 ,50 ,50
atagert , , ,60 ,
AustinX ,90 ,0 , ,0
AvGeek07 , , , ,50
benwaggoner ,20 ,80 ,10 ,
bitemymac ,0 ,90 ,50 ,0
blb1274 , , ,40 ,
boden11 , ,40 , ,
Brian Shannon , , ,100 ,90
brian12773 ,50 ,50 ,10 ,10
bruceames , , ,80 ,
Carbon_Le , , ,30 ,
carnivale880 ,90 , , ,
casper77 , , ,10 ,
chakotay2 , ,30 , ,
chokeslam ,90 ,10 ,10 ,40
Chuckwl ,90 ,0 ,10 ,20
Cin0s3 ,70 , , ,
David Susilo , , , ,0
DigitalfreakNYC , , ,80 ,
Earz ,90 ,10 ,10 ,10
Forest Fan ,0 ,90 ,20 ,20
FrancescoP ,0 ,90 ,10 ,50
ginsen ,80 ,20 ,40 ,0
GJN ,60 ,10 ,70 ,0
Glen911 ,50 ,50 ,10 ,90
gocam ,50 ,70 ,90 ,20
haribokart ,0 , , ,
HB GAMER ,0 ,90 ,30 ,30
Henke ,90 ,10 ,50 ,10
HighDeff ,0 ,90 , ,20
Humbert Humbert , , ,20 ,
JBlacklow ,50 ,50 ,90 ,10
Jerry Gardner ,20 , , ,
jmpage2 ,30 ,30 ,100 ,20
JohnFR ,60 ,40 ,10 ,70
JonMarsh , , ,20 ,
kenliles ,80 , , ,
kevink109 , , ,80 ,
lomax ,70 ,30 ,50 ,0
LonnyE , , ,50 ,
lvisneau ,50 , , ,
LynxFX ,80 ,20 ,30 ,20
macwintux ,80 ,20 ,80 ,20
MarekM , , ,10 ,
mark.hannis ,90 , , ,
Masfer , , ,60 ,
MASrules ,90 ,0 ,40 ,20
maverick0716 ,60 ,40 ,10 ,80
Maxpower1987 ,80 ,20 ,30 ,0
Maxx_75 ,70 ,30 ,10 ,40
mcsporfut , , ,50 ,
MidnightWatcher ,10 ,90 ,10 ,10
mikelike2 , , ,60 ,
mikemorel ,0 ,90 , ,20
mikeyj ,30 , , ,
minshin ,50 , , ,
Monty22001 ,70 ,10 ,30 ,20
Neo1965 ,70 ,30 ,50 ,0
nharmon91 ,50 ,0 ,100 ,90
Nic Rhodes ,30 ,50 ,70 ,90
nick2010 ,80 ,20 ,30 ,70
nirvanalx ,30 , , ,
omeaga66 ,30 ,60 ,10 ,50
oooOooo ,10 ,90 ,10 ,20
pcostabel ,70 ,0 ,50 ,0
PerHT ,60 ,40 ,20 ,0
phansson , , ,50 ,
PrinceLH ,90 ,10 ,10 ,30
Prisoner655321 ,50 , , ,
properbostonian ,20 ,50 ,20 ,80
Ray Cathode , , ,10 ,
RaymondBlue ,0 , , ,
RichB , , ,10 ,
Rikard ,80 , , ,
rolom ,0 , , ,
Ron Lee ,30 ,70 ,10 ,90
rstewar , , ,60 ,
seyak ,0 , , ,
Shark Bait , , ,50 ,
space2001 ,90 , , ,
Spoudazo ,70 ,30 ,10 ,30
Stan Rozenfeld ,70 ,10 , ,
stefanpaulmayer , , ,80 ,
szitzma , , ,10 ,
theforce8686 ,90 , ,20 ,
TheLion ,80 , , ,
Tim Glover ,10 ,70 ,10 ,80
tim459 ,40 ,60 ,10 ,80
tlreddragon , , ,30 ,
trbopooh ,30 , , ,
Urza ,50 ,50 ,10 ,90
Von-Bek , , ,40 ,
vurbano , , ,40 ,

Can you give us an average percentage for each of the four columns, taking only the good votes into account?

As I understand it here, the poll is finished, so now you are trying to separate the votes out by which was a "good" vote or not?

Seems that the most accurate way to deal with votes that don't equal 100%, is simply to convert their numbers to 100% - ie 160% would become 100%, so an 80 in a 160, would become 50%.

How does that sound?

Short summary:

BD Wins HD Wins None Wins Both Win
The Good 45.8 28.9 11.8 13.5
The Bad 28.6 34.3 28.6 8.6
The Ugly 35.3 17.0 36.6 11.1

Combined 39.0 22.3 26.8 11.9

The Ugly was normalized to 100%

Diogen.

I do agree that this is a pretty stupid poll. You're goign to get a lot of fanbois skewing the polls.

lol, funny ;)

Diogen. love the names you gave to the categories I find them extremely fitting

As I understand it here, the poll is finished, so now you are trying to separate the votes out by which was a "good" vote or not?

Seems that the most accurate way to deal with votes that don't equal 100%, is simply to convert their numbers to 100% - ie 160% would become 100%, so an 80 in a 160, would become 50%.

How does that sound?


if you want to, you can do it.

The "bad" are easy to do, the "good" have some where I did it (added 0 if blank and 0 if 10- if it would make them good)

I don't feel comfortable doing it with the ugly.

why? I don't want to play God with peoples opinions.

for example
10Drunks&aDriver: voted 80% BD and nothing else.
should it be 100% BD? I am guessing not or he would have voted 100%, so where do I attribute the other 20?
casper77 voted only 10% none. so what % does he think for the rest?
chakotay2 voted only 30% HD DVD
and an example of the funniest type
David Susilo voted 0% both (so is he saying 0% both and nothing else not easy for me to guess what he wished to vote for)

these are just a few examples of the <100

the >100 are not any easier

look at Brian Shannon None:100 Both:90
does that mean he thinks there is roughly a 50/50 that both win or neither will win? Or did he just forget to vote for the other two
how about
brian12773 50,50,10,10
is that a 40,40,10,10 (the 10 for both is in the BD and HD DVD)
how about
jmpage2 ,30 ,30 ,100 ,20
how can someone say it is a guarantee (100%) that none will win and then give a % for the rest

At this point in the game, I would probably change my votes to Blu-ray: 60, HDDVD: 10, none: 0, both: 30

At this point in the game, I would probably change my votes to Blu-ray: 60, HDDVD: 10, none: 0, both: 30


I don't think I would change my vote yet. But that is one of the reason that I put a close date (not just to be able to make the table). Obviously peoples opinion will change with time, so someone voting much later has a bit of a benefit of being farther along. Who knows, maybe in a few months start a new one