Inspired by a debate with Kosty and Sean_O about whether the installed base of PS3s worldwide by end of 2008 would reach 20M.

Vote your view. I know we had a poll on PS3 sales projections but apparently, things have changed with analysts predicting lesser nos. now.

Either way, vote your view (its public and multiple choice, fyi).

cheers

Yes, the PS3 will sell more than 20M by end of 2008.

I don't see it. They will need to 'sell' about 19 million by the end of 2007. Better get crackin'.

Have they hit 2m sold yet ? I know they shipped 2m + but last i saw japan still didn't hit 500k and the usa was still trying to break 1m.

I'm going to ay by the end of 2008 they will be close to 20m . But i think it will be to little to late

Who cares. This is the A/V section not the game section. When you can buy this thing in the A/V section of stores then I'll worry about how many it sells. Until then......

I think Sony said, that they will sell (or ship?) 6M PS3 until march. Analysts have said something about 4.5M, right? I think, with an eye on the european market and the upcoming european release of the PS3, that Sony can be -very- happy if they manage to sell 4M until april. Then I basicly extrapolate the data: They will sell about 8-9M until Dec 31, 2007 and 16-18M until Dec 31, 2008. And I consider this as the best case scenario for Sony - it could as well end up with less than 15M sold units by the end of 2008. Depends pretty much on how soon and how far they lower the price of the PS3. But 20M? No way. Or have they sold 2M units up today?

It all about the content vs price. Theirs not enough games to suporrt the price yet. And until they get a good number of exclusives they may not sell many consoles.

The though thing is will their MGS be it. The ps2 exclusives are now multi-platform The gta series and FF are on xbox now. GTA4 will be multiplatform as well.

I hope the BD disc isn't holding many back. Prehapps duplactaion is a much bigger issuer then they thought. Or maybe its just harder to utlize that much space. Given the other platforms rely on less then 9gb. Not sure what the wii uses prehapps just cdroms. I don't know.


As a blu-ray playback machine. Yes some are buying it for this. Which should tell sony to lower their standalone prices. They must get them at or bellow the cost of ps3.

I'd get a ps3 but like said I don't see any games I want. The one I do are already on or comming to the 360. So I don't see why I need one.....

FF are on xbox now.

The MMO is on Xbox, however there haven't been any announcements to bring any of Square's other FF titles to the Xbox. (Assuming FF means Final Fantasy)

I don't see it. They will need to 'sell' about 19 million by the end of 2007. Better get crackin'.

Uh, don't you mean... 2008?

I'm guessing this poll is for worldwide. I think this is a tough one to figure. Even 7 million sold in 2007 and 12 million sold in 2008 would put them over 20 million total by the end of 2008 if they did over 1 million in 2006 (which I believe they did).

--Darin

They will need to drop the price on this thing before they break 12 million worldwide. Oh.... and they better get some freakin games made for the thing too!!!

So why do you think the answer is 'no' though WirelessGuru? Are you saying that those things won't come?

with the cost of living now adays.... who can afford it?

The PS3 has been out for 2 1/2 months and sold how many? 1 million? Sales seem to be slowing down already (even the weekly Japan numbers get lower and lower), so I don't see Sony hitting anywhere near 10 million by the end of 2007, much less 20 million by the end of 2008.

The PS3 has been out for 2 1/2 months and sold how many? 1 million? Sales seem to be slowing down already (even the weekly Japan numbers get lower and lower), so I don't see Sony hitting anywhere near 10 million by the end of 2007, much less 20 million by the end of 2008.

You seem to assume it would "naturally" sell more this year than next.

Why?

That logic runs counter to previous trending in the console space.

Yes, the PS3 will sell more than 20M by end of 2008.

To further clarify my vote here,

I think the PS3 WILL bite the bullet and we WILL see a price drop of at least $100-150 in 2008, but will continue to be priced higher than the 360 throughout its lifespan.

I think the PS3 would sell close to 10M worldwide by the end of 2007, and coupled with the inevitable price drop in 2008, and availability of more "system seller franchises" in late 2007 and spring 2008, the PS3 will hit 20M by the end of 2008.

So, my vote is predicated on the assumption that the PS3 WILL [inevitably] drop in price in Spring/Summer 2008. If not, the PS3 would be a distant third to Nintendo Wii and Xbox360.

I said 'no', but it could just squeak past 20M if they have a price drop of at least $150 in late 2007 or so. Even then I'd be impressed since it will still be the price of the 360 today (basically) at that time... good luck Sony!

with the cost of living now adays.... who can afford it?
Kind of an odd thing to say when in your sig it says "Proud Owner of XBOX 360 and PS3..."

So apparently, you can.

I voted yes. It may seem slow now but look at what is out there, nothing. As soon as the games start coming and with Europe they should be able to match the 360 near 10m it did in its first year. Japan is going to make up a lot of ground there. After 2007 holiday season we'll probably see a price drop in the springtime of 2008. Another 10m should be a piece of cake. The games are really the biggest factor holding up sales, the price is a distant second.

Console sales spike in 4th qtr. Slow in 1st 2nd and 3rd. PS3 still has some sales momentum, but the Xbox 360 has more. Wii has taken some PS3 thunder. PS 3 priced too high.

I voted not a chance. Not even with PS3 price reductions. ;)

There are a lot of untapped Playstation loyalist who are happily playing their PS2s right now. Sooner or later their favorite franchises will move to the PS3. Will this happen in 2007/2008? I'd guess 15 million is realistic. 20 million may be a better target for MS with their 1 year head start. NA is a 360 haven, but Japan and Europe are Sony's.

FFXIII, God of War 3, MGS 4, DMC4, Resistance 2, Killzone 2, Ratchet, Jak, etc. If these games come out and come out in the next two years coupled with a $100 price drop the PS3 will take off, not to mention Blu-ray becoming the de facto HD standard in 2007 :)

Yes, the PS3 will sell more than 20M by end of 2008.
Agreed. As the months go on there will be far more must have games and must have Blu-ray Discs. Also I wouldn't be surprised if there's a pricecut well before the end of '08 which sees this thing selling for $299.

I think the PS3 WILL bite the bullet and we WILL see a price drop of at least $100-150 in 2008, but will continue to be priced higher than the 360 throughout its lifespan.
I understand the logic and it makes perfect sense...the only thing I would wonder from a business sense and stockholder value is this: If they have to consider a price drop prior to much of a cost drop (since reports show Sony is losing several hundred per console,) then would Sony continue to pump them out to meet this level of market penetration in an effort to sell more at that kind of loss?

I voted no. The only chance the PS3 has is a significant price reduction. There is just no reason to own this system right now from a gaming perspective.

I voted no. The only chance the PS3 has is a significant price reduction. There is just no reason to own this system right now from a gaming perspective.

The poll is not "do you want it," but do you think it will reach 20 million by the end of '08.

If you predicate that on a significant price cut, then consider the question rephrased for you: do you think the PS3 will see a significant price cut before the end of 2008?

The poll is not "do you want it," but do you think it will reach 20 million by the end of '08.

If you predicate that on a significant price cut, then consider the question rephrased for you: do you think the PS3 will see a significant price cut before the end of 2008?

I know what the poll says. I think the only chance is with a significant price cut, but I do not expect that price cut nor do I expect the PS3 to sell 20m by end of 2008.

I have done my part though as I already own the PS3.

I know what the poll says. I think the only chance is with a significant price cut, but I do not expect that price cut nor do I expect the PS3 to sell 20m by end of 2008.

I have done my part though as I already own the PS3.

Fair enough on both counts.

I understand the logic and it makes perfect sense...the only thing I would wonder from a business sense and stockholder value is this: If they have to consider a price drop prior to much of a cost drop (since reports show Sony is losing several hundred per console,) then would Sony continue to pump them out to meet this level of market penetration in an effort to sell more at that kind of loss?

Here is my thinking:

With the reports of stronger than predicted profits for Sony, and with the very survival of Blu-Ray predicated on the longevity of the PS3, I think Sony will continue to pour funds into the PS3.

The only way for Sony to recoup their investments is to get the PS3 into the hands of more gamers and thereby getting them to buy more games. Movie buffs will simply kill SCE and the PS3 if they are the majority of the PS3 user base.

Sony simply has to sell enough consoles to not just quench the demand of BR movie buyers, but also the millions of gamers. The only way to accomplish this is by a price drop.

I agree with the concept of a price drop, but how much and when? The demand for the PS3 clearly is not there. There are not any must have exclusive system seller games on the horizon with the exception of VF5 and Motorstorm, which both are most likely not system sellers.

I think they need to drop at least $100 across the board, but that may cause 2 problems if it happens in 2007.

1. Sony loses even more on their console. I am not sure the current cost structure or how much the company is willing to lose. Does anyone have any ideas?
2. This kills the BD player market and may alienate some CE companies if the PS3 is $399 in 2007.

I think Sony is damned if they do and damned if they don't.

The title really should be: Perspective 2009: How many PS3s sold?

When we pass the end of the period in question, it will be 2009.

2 million sold in 2006 (NA + Japan)
X million sell in 2007 (worldwide)
Y million sell in 2008 (worldwide)

So, the question is: X + Y >= 18 million?

Xbox 360 managed 10 million in only two of three key markets with a growth of titles from launch count.

Assuming some price reduction in early 2008, and the number of titles that should be available starting in 2008, the PS/3 should be able to easily surpass 12 million worldwide for 2008. Leaving only the need to sell six million this year to hit the OP target.

Gary

I agree with the concept of a price drop, but how much and when? The demand for the PS3 clearly is not there. There are not any must have exclusive system seller games on the horizon with the exception of VF5 and Motorstorm, which both are most likely not system sellers.

I think they need to drop at least $100 across the board, but that may cause 2 problems if it happens in 2007.

1. Sony loses even more on their console. I am not sure the current cost structure or how much the company is willing to lose. Does anyone have any ideas?
2. This kills the BD player market and may alienate some CE companies if the PS3 is $399 in 2007.

I think Sony is damned if they do and damned if they don't.

The price drop will most likely not happen in 2007. Why? For one, it is too early in the lifespan of the technology to drop in COST by $100-150. And also, Q2-Q4 will be first few quarters where the available games will be the driving factor to buy a PS3 rather than its price. This will see the PS3 through till Holiday 2007.

Spring 2008 will be the right time for a price drop, as GTA4 and MGS4 - arguably two of the best selling franchises on the platform will have already debuted, and Sony will be left with GT5, KillZone and Final Fantasy as the big guns, but with a cheaper [and possibly improved] Xbox360 will be chomping at the bit with competing franchises. There won't possibly 20M people in the world that would buy a $600 console with a total outlay of close to $750 just to buy in.

Here are Nomura Securities newly slashed fiscal year sales forecast:

4.5 million (end of March 2007)
10 million (end of March 2008)
11 million (end of March 2009)

Assuming end of 2008 would account for at least 75% of that last figure then we'd have:

4.5 + 10 + 8.25 = 22.75 million.

If the numbers hold up.

Sony didn't sell 2 million PS3's last year, they manufactured 2 million.

They actually sold less than 500,000 in Japan in 2006, and less than 700,000 in the US in 2006.

Shipments doesn't equal sales.

For example, Nintendo manufactured 4 million Wii's in 2006, but only sold 3.2 million.

I think that the ps3 will be a callosal failure for Sony, I believe it already is. The 360 came out first to the table, then the wii came out at the same time and is eating the ps3's lunch. The price for the ps3 is a big issue as both the 360 and certainly the wii are much cheaper and arguably better games. As for the price drop, if it is true that Sony is subsidizing each unit sold, then we shouldn't expect any price drop-this year or next. That just wouldn't make any sense to lose money on each unit, then drop the price to lose more money.

A large part of the video game demographic is under 18. How many parents are going to shell out $500-600 for a video game system they probably don't want their kids spending too much time on anyway. Many of those sales will end up going to the $250 Wii, which has already sold over 4 million units.

I think the early adopter market (those willing to pay top dollar for the system) is already tapped out. Look at what happened to PS3 Ebay prices over the holiday season. The PS3 has an uphill battle at such a high price point and it will take a significant reduction in price for it to have the mass market appeal of the PS2. Add to this the impact of the 360 and I don't think you will hit 20 million by the end of 2008.

The Wii doesn't compete with the PS3, it competes with the PS2 in both price point, graphics capability, and games (Guitar Hero, DDR, that karaoke game, etc).

They should easily get to 10 million worldwide in 2007 (already nearly a fifth of the way there). 20 million in 2008 doesn't seem so incredulous.

Even though I plan to have a PS3 by end of year 2008, I voted no.

Among the people I know in the 25 - 35 age group, all of which are more than capable of affording one, I know of only 1 other person planning on getting one. 3 currently own Xbox 360s and 2 are considering getting one. Most of them are considering getting a Wii though, not because price is a factor, but because it's different and seems like a more social and fun toy to have around the house. The cost difference is a good excuse to buy more games too.

Cheers...
Duy-Khang Hoang

The title really should be: Perspective 2009: How many PS3s sold?

When we pass the end of the period in question, it will be 2009.

Gary
Good point that.

This is what happens when one watches too much Daily Show

Some people are betting on making the numbers because of a price cut.

I say no price cut in 2007. Will be late 2008 likely timed just before holidays before the first cut. Why? Sony is losing up to $300 per unit. So what you say all consoles lose money. Not that much. The expected attach rates, add ons, and game royalties means that Sony (or Microsoft, on Nintendo) can expect to make about $150-$200 in profit over the life of the system. At $300 loss up front and $200 profit over life of the system it is a net loser.

Cost will come down but if Sony drops prices along with those costs they stay in a long term net loss situation. Add in the upfront R&D cost that need to be paid off and the combined lifetime cost of all the systems sold at loss before the cost cuts and you can see the "dead money" quickly moves into the billions. Sony needs to get the system down to a <$100 loss per unit. They will never get there with price cuts.

You tell me the prices for PS3, XBOX 360 and Wii till 2008, I'll tell you how much they will all sell.

From looking at the cut in forecast for XBox360, I guess PS3 will not real 20M by 2008 end. But XBox 360 will ...

In your dreams... it'll be lucky to do 10 million in 2007 even... :)

I voted no, but I think the answer is completely price dependent. If Sony can shave $200 off the price by Christmas season 2007, then they have a chance. If the price is still hovering in the $400-$500 (USD) range by then, I'd say not.

Some people are betting on making the numbers because of a price cut.

I say no price cut in 2007. Will be late 2008 likely timed just before holidays before the first cut. Why? Sony is losing up to $300 per unit. So what you say all consoles lose money. Not that much. The expected attach rates, add ons, and game royalties means that Sony (or Microsoft, on Nintendo) can expect to make about $150-$200 in profit over the life of the system. At $300 loss up front and $200 profit over life of the system it is a net loser.

Cost will come down but if Sony drops prices along with those costs they stay in a long term net loss situation. Add in the upfront R&D cost that need to be paid off and the combined lifetime cost of all the systems sold at loss before the cost cuts and you can see the "dead money" quickly moves into the billions. Sony needs to get the system down to a <$100 loss per unit. They will never get there with price cuts.


They'll get some cost saving with their process shrink to 65 nm, but I agree. Sony's biggest problem now is overcoming the enormous chunk of R&D and plant investment they have in the PS3 AND simultaneously cost-reducing it.

with the cost of living now adays.... who can afford it?

If Jersey is too expensive, move to the south east and get a nice house for $120k or an apartment for $385/month.

Or if you like the north, go up to Penn. and get a really nice apartment for $400, lol.

No one is forcing you to live where you live. :p

If Sony can shave $200 off the price by Christmas season 2007.

I voted no as well, because I just don't see a price reduction of more than 20% in the first year.

they sold merely slightly over 1/2mil units when PS3 was still hot at launch. Unless the price is reduced, I dont how they will be selling more than during the christmas season.

I am still staggering from the opinion of a person (who shall remain nameless) that PS3 will sell < 5M in 12 months after launch.

Stop the looney-van, we have a customer (j/k)

But seriously dude, I mean seriously.. not cricket

When I provided multiple choices, it was in jest. I didnt think anyone would really use them, but one lives and learns ;)

I have learnt soo much on AVS.

20 million is a lock by the end of 2008. Probably looking at 30 million+ with a pricedrop.

MGS4, White Knight Story, Devil May Cry 4, FFXIII et. al will push sales past 5M in Japan. FFXIII will push consoles like nobodies business. They may not like the price but thats not a huge barrier. Japanese games are still by and large exclusive to the PS3, especially 'next-gen' (non-Wii) titles.

Europe hasn't taken to the Xbox 360 at all, its Sonys strongest market and they'll have a million out the door in two months. The price is also closer to the launch price of the PS2.

America will be tough, but I can't see them doing less than 3 million/year (even the GameCube managed this). They will already be at ~1-1.2 million after we get January NPD.

Worldwide in second place, rapidly achieving parity with Wii. Xbox 360 will continue its poor performance everywhere but NA and be at about 25 million (~8 million sold now, 10.4 million shipped).



This will all of course have dramatic effect on the HD war at the start, but by the end of 2007 if BR isn't the established leader I think more people will be interested in only the games.

I voted no as well, because I just don't see a price reduction of more than 20% in the first year.

But the question is to the end of 2008. The reduction could happen after 18 months and have a major impact on 2008 sales.

Gary

I'd love to see someone put their neck on the line for a forecast that isn't two years away :)

How about telling us how many PS3's will have sold By July 1st 2007 and by Jan 1 2008?

I know I"m gonna be rubbing some posters face in it for doubting. :take another screenshot of the poll results:

I'd love to see someone put their neck on the line for a forecast that isn't two years away :)

How about telling us how many PS3's will have sold By July 1st 2007 and by Jan 1 2008?

July 1st: 4 million.
Jan 1st 2008: 10 million.

July 1st 2007- 3.5 Million
Jan 1st 2008- 9.0 Million (This really depends on when FFXIII and MGS4 debut)

I love the fact that all the people with pro-HD-DVD sigs are forcasting doom and gloom and continue to bash Sony and the PS3. I think their is a label for that...

I know I"m gonna be rubbing some posters face in it for doubting. :take another screenshot of the poll results:
Hehe, I just screenshotted the names of all the voters.

This is gonna be Fun :D

Sony is facing some tough challenges on that front, namely price, competition, and a late start for the PS3.

They are fighting a phenomenon in the Wii (which is beating the pants off of everything in Japan except for Nintendo's own hand held systems) and they are fighting a machine that is just as technically capable if not more so in the Xbox 360 (which also has a one year head start and a $200 price advantage here in the States.)

The PS3 is set to launch in Europe later this year with a price that will be through the roof.

As both North America and Japan have shown, the mindshare built into the Playstation brand did not translate into the overwhelming sales numbers Sony had planned on, and at this point there is no reason to conclude that the European market will return numbers which vary in any significant and relative way from those already scored in the other major territories.

Sony are getting hammered in the press and there is a fairly substantial backlash they will need to face for their years of marketing spin and false promises about the capabilities of their product, and attacking & sniping with intent to cast a perceived weakness on a competing product.

All of their assertions (PS3 will have dual 1080p support, Xbox 360 is weak = Xbox 1.5, Next Gen starts when we get to market, we will overwhelm them, we are double their power, etc. etc.) are coming home to roost as their product hits the market and not only fails to deliver the impossible, but is also outperformed by the machine Sony was ridiculing as being vastly inferior. Some of the more jaded supporters will simply argue that "hey, it's marketing" -Well, yeah, there is marketing and then there is sleaze marketing that crosses the line between reality and outright Bullshit, and that is exactly why so many people (look around this forum and you will find many examples) have turned on Sony.

So with negative press, high price, par performance at best, a weak software library, two powerhouse competitors in the marketplace, and a customer backlash, just what is there to encourage people to go out and buy a PS3? Potential? I think Sony marketing has pissed that trust away and people are tired of waiting to see if Sony will deliver or if they are yet again promising the World just to keep people from buying into a competing product.

That leaves us with only software to drive PS3 sales. What exclusives do they have left that would drive the kind of hardware adoption needed to hit 20 million units by 08'? Final Fantasy XIII? It’s supposedly on the release schedule for 2008 but if the FF track record is anything to go by, then its release could easily slip beyond that timeframe.

Metal Gear? Devil May Cry? Not quite the massive system mover that Final Fantasy is, and there is always a chance that both of those titles may go cross-platform. That chance becomes ever more likely if the PS3 sales continue to crawl.

Well established Playstation exclusive software franchises are finding their way to the Xbox 360 platform, or in the case of Dragon Quest, the Nintendo DS.

The upcoming exclusive software release list for the 360 is arguably more interesting than the PS3's, with games like Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Cry On, Eternal Sonata, Halo 3, and eventually, Gears Of War 2.

Upcoming mega franchises (GTA 4, Resident Evil 5, etc.) are coming to both PS3 and 360 with no timed-exclusive deals for Sony, meaning day and date releases. If we go by what has been shown so far, they will all look, sound, and play identically if not superior on the 360. But when the 360 can be had for much less money, which system are customers going to buy to play those games?

Even of Sony does a massive price drop on the PS3, Microsoft will no doubt cut the price of the 360 in equal measure to maintain the market edge. At that point Sony will sell many more systems, but Microsoft will sell massive amounts of systems. Whatever exclusive mega developers Sony has left will be tempted to follow the money and go cross platform.

This is one reason I feel strongly that Blu Ray supporters are jumping the gun when looking at the latest software sales figures. The PS3 IS Blu Ray, and if it has nothing to drive sales to a mass market level then Blu Ray will eventually be passed by cheap HD DVD players and single SKU DVD-HD DVD combo discs.

So far, the NPD and media create numbers back up the claim that the PS3 is underperforming. Some will try and (falsely) claim that the PS3 outsold the 360 in a relative time period, but that is untrue as the PS3 did not do a world wide launch, and the overall total of 360 systems sold during the same period was greater.

It's actually quite something to see people try and defend the sales of the PS3 by comparing them to the 360 a year ago when the PS3 was supposed to absolutely ‘destroyah’ all Xbox sales numbers and sell through something like 4 to 6 million systems within the first two months.

So for all of the above reasons I don’t think that 20 million is achievable by 08’ for the PS3… not unless Sony cuts their own throat and prices the system at $250. I doubt very much they would want to do that, but they may have no other choice before too long.

Imo, PS3 will, by 2008, convincingly beat 360 in terms of PQ.

One factor discounted here (re PS3 sales) is that if BD wins the war in 2007, then PS3 price drop is a sure thing, given that BD drives will fall dramatically in price.

Also, with BD winning the war, more people would have a reason to buy the PS3, for movies only.

Cutting through some FUD/providing a retort.
two powerhouse competitors in the marketplace
Whilst you could argue that the Wii might be a powerhouse (IMO you need more than two months to declare that), Xbox 360 is definitely NOT. Disappointing sales, missing analyst projections EVERY SINGLE MONTH for 2006 in NA, disappointing EU sales, dead in Japan.

They also recently announced they were cutting shipments by 3M for the fiscal year.
What exclusives do they have left that would drive the kind of hardware adoption needed to hit 20 million units by 08'? Final Fantasy XIII?
Final Fantasy XIII
Metal Gear Solid 4
Heavenly Sword
Warhawk
MotorStorm
Final Fantasy Versus XIII
SingStar (multi-million franchise in EU)
Gran Turismo 5
Monster Hunter 3 (In Japan - 1/2 million seller on PS2, nearly a million seller on the freaking PSP (still in top 30 after a year))
Ninja Gaiden: Sigma
Hot Shots Golf
Lair
White Knight Story
Devil May Cry 4
Killzone
Tekken 6
Mercenaries 2


And LOTS more, those are just the ones I'm definitely sure have been announced and can remember. And then it still has nearly everything that will be released on the Xbox 360, too. Those games will still contribute.

Metal Gear? Devil May Cry? Not quite the massive system mover that Final Fantasy is
Yet those two titles were as popular as the second highest selling Xbox exclusive last generation (Fable), whilst being modest by PlayStation standards. THATs interesting.


Well established Playstation exclusive software franchises are finding their way to the Xbox 360 platform
Microsoft has lost WAY more exclusives than Sony. Last generation nearly EVERY PC developer was exclusive to Xbox, now most are cross-platform. See: UT2007, The Darkness, Oblivion etc. its a huge list.

They even lost their flagship JP game Ninja Gaiden.

with games like Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Cry On, Eternal Sonata, Halo 3, and eventually, Gears Of War 2.
Very arguably, eh? Only Halo 3 of those announced will have any type of impact or importance, albeit H3 will be huge and any self-respecting gamer will get it. We're going to talk about Gears 2 though? If we name franchise sequels PS3 SHITS on the Xbox 360 (at least in sales).

Eternal Sonata? Come on, seriously.


Upcoming mega franchises (GTA 4, Resident Evil 5, etc.)
RE5 should be placed amongst MGS4 in potential, but eh, its bad if your victory is day and date releases. Wow, equality.

but Microsoft will sell massive amounts of systems.
Theres no indication Microsoft will EVER sell massive amounts of systems. Its still selling worse than the original Xbox, and will need pricedrops to maintain pace with that.

when looking at the latest software sales figures.
Those software figures are bad for everyone compared to last-generation (PS2 rules in overall and tie-ratio), and the PS3s is only marginally more awful than the Wii.

So far, the NPD and media create numbers back up the claim that the PS3 is underperforming.
Wrong. Only media-create suggests this - NPD for December finished even before the PS3 was widely available. NPD for January isn't out yet, and then deliberations can be made.

Some will try and (falsely) claim that the PS3 outsold the 360 in a relative time period, but that is untrue as the PS3 did not do a world wide launch, and the overall total of 360 systems sold during the same period was greater.
WRONG. Sony sold more in NA, and a LOT more in Japan, more than making up for EU. Breakdown is like 750/500 vs. 650/100/350 (NA/JP/EU) sold through in first holiday.

If you want to go by shipments (1M/800k vs. 900/100/500) its the same case.

It's actually quite something to see people try and defend the sales of the PS3 by comparing them to the 360 a year ago when the PS3 was supposed to absolutely ‘destroyah’ all Xbox sales numbers and sell through something like 4 to 6 million systems within the first two months.
Considering they announced shipment figures of 6M by the end of March, errr, would've been difficult. I find it laughable that you would use a comparison with Xbox sales numbers to put the PS3 in a negative light. And btw, 6 million shipped by the end of March is half of what MS will have shipped by the end of >June<.

That lead is evaporating. Sold-through will be anyones guess.

I don’t think that 20 million is achievable by 08’ for the PS3… not unless Sony cuts their own throat and prices the system at $250.
$250? Sony sold 30M PS2s at $300 SIX YEARS AGO. Bit of perspective, please.

i doubt it

Dec 2008 is an awfully long time from Jan '07, and seeing PS2 sells 20M/yr worldwide, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where PS3 cannot do that in 2 years.

thanks for the info, Elwar.

Good to know.

Elwar, your whole post is ridiculous. You would probably be the only person on Earth at this point to think that the PS3 is not underperforming according to expectations.

The fact that you view their December NPD totals as a positive asset says it all.

I'll see you when the January NPD hits, so you can try and tell me that the numbers are looking good or that they are on par with what the 360 did a year ago (which would have been an embarrassing or even insulting suggestion about the PS3 in the minds of Sony supporters just before it launched.)

In the meantime it appears the majority of people on this poll also feel there is no way the PS3 will take of the way you expect.

Keep the faith.

PS, Your numbers for world wide 360 sales are off by sever hundred thousand... but I am sure you knew that. 360 did about 100k more units world wide than the PS3 had by the end of launch year, and the 360 came to market later in the year than the PS3 did.

But if you just keep on refuting everything with "WRONG" in all caps, I guess in your mind that makes you correct.

I'll be happy to dig up those numbers and post them if you really want me to. Just say the word.

$250? Sony sold 30M PS2s at $300 SIX YEARS AGO. Bit of perspective, please.

Indeed.

In response to the thought that the PS3 could sell nearly 10 million this year, 2007:

I would seriously applaud them, be shocked to my core, and look at Sony with ten times more respect/fear then I ever had - if they even get close to selling 10 million units.

IMO, they can't hope to have anything like what's truly offered on an Xbox Live service going by the end of the year, they have the toughest competition ever in both the 360 and Wii, and the games they have lined up to be released for the rest of the year are either unexciting or unexclusive. As I see it, for 07, - they really seem to have probably the most un-desirable and weak console product/offering for a given year that I've seen for quite some time.

Really, the only thing they have going for them is BD playback and the Sony brand name. If they can sell 20 million units based on that alone - I quit. I when I say "I quit" - I mean "I quit life". At that point, I will cease to believe I'm living in a sane world and will turn into a secluded, pyschotic "Neo" looking for "Morpheus" and my way out of the rabbit hole.

In response to the thought that the PS3 could sell nearly 10 million this year, 2007:

I would seriously applaud them, be shocked to my core, and look at Sony with ten times more respect/fear then I ever had - if they even get close to selling 10 million units.

IMO, they can't hope to have anything like what's truly offered on an Xbox Live service going by the end of the year, they have the toughest competition ever in both the 360 and Wii, and the games they have lined up to be released for the rest of the year are either unexciting or unexclusive. As I see it, for 07, - they really seem to have probably the most un-desirable and weak console product/offering for a given year that I've seen for quite some time.

Really, the only thing they have going for them is BD playback and the Sony brand name. If they can sell 20 million units based on that alone - I quit. I when I say "I quit" - I mean "I quit life". At that point, I will cease to believe I'm living in a sane world and will turn into a secluded, pyschotic "Neo" looking for "Morpheus" and my way out of the rabbit hole.

Very funny post, but I do not think you have anything to worry about.

IMO, they can't hope to have anything like what's truly offered on an Xbox Live service going by the end of the yearThe problem for Live is exactly that it's already good enough and has little to be improved from now on...

The problem for Live is exactly that it's already good enough and has little to be improved from now on...

I think it will be improved by adding more content such as music videos, and it will improve by being cross platform with Vista.

I think it will be improved by adding more content such as music videos, and it will improve by being cross platform with Vista.If that helps gamers to buy consoles :p

Great response, no substance at all Sean.
The fact that you view their December NPD totals as a positive asset says it all.
Only 20% less than the Wii, better than (reduced) expectations, and still sold-out at the time. I recall much surprise at the time it had done 500k. Sony was definitely happy with it.

PS, Your numbers for world wide 360 sales are off by sever hundred thousand... but I am sure you knew that. 360 did about 100k more units world wide than the PS3 had by the end of launch year, and the 360 came to market later in the year than the PS3 did.
WRONG. (You like it, eh?)

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/01/26/microsoftq2_2006/ (Xbox 360 ships 1.5 million units in Q4 2005)
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/viewer/06q3/slide/13_slide.html (Sony ships 1.84 million units in Q4 2006)

Dig up YOUR numbers.

In the meantime it appears the majority of people on this poll also feel there is no way the PS3 will take of the way you expect.
Heres the thing, it doesn't matter. They are entitled to their opinion. They may be right, but I disagree. I know what I'm talking about, I have facts and figures and understanding. I'm expecting it to do less than half of what the PS2 did in a similar timeframe.

Did you know the PS2 sold 16 million just in America by the end of 2002 (~2 years) according to NPD? That PS2 shipments worldwide hit 50 million?

You realise that 20 million by the end of 2008 would be a poor effort and not a success for Sony? And at the same time it would be a gleaming success for Nintendo or Microsoft? No, you probably don't, neither would most in this thread.

I'll see you when the January NPD hits, so you can try and tell me that the numbers are looking good or that they are on par with what the 360 did a year ago
Ok, but you'll just embarrass yourself by anyones metric.

You realise that 20 million by the end of 2008 would be a poor effort and not a success for Sony?
Thats what I figure too.

20M by 1 Jan 2009 is a gimme. I am thus rather surprised at the NO voters. And thus, my screenshot which I hope to not misplace by end 2008 :D

Based on how often these guys put up the sales numbers, in a few days, this chart is probably going to be updated with cumulative launch aligned monthly data. For the 1 month mark, the PS3 did outpace x360 launch.

http://www.vgcharts.org/usaconscomps.php?name1=X360&name2=PS3&type=2

Here are some updated numbers for anyone who cares:

Media Create numbers for PS3 sales in Japan, January 2007:

Jan 1-7: -69,944
Jan 8-14: -25,531
Jan 15-21: -21,105
Jan 22-28: -19,996

That’s a total of 136,576 PS3s sold from January 1-28, and if we follow that trend we can safely conclude PS3 year to date sales in Japan are just shy of 150,000 units.

Is anyone still thinking that 20 million consoles by 08’ is a given?

As for console launch numbers, they vary.

Xbox 360 launch numbers:
North America: (NPD) -607,343
Europe: Most estimates put the total at ~500,000
Japan: (Media Create) ~65,000

There are higher totals listed in Microsoft’s Q2 report. You can see a copy of it by looking through the references of the ‘sales’ area of the following Wiki link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360

They list the total sales of Xbox 360 as of December 31, 2005 at 1.5 million units, and they break it down like this:

North America: 900,000
Europe: 500,000
Japan: 100,000

I generally go with the lowest totals to be safe, but whichever way you add it up the 360 sold more systems in its launch year than the PS3 did. It also had less relative time to accomplish this.

Here are the launch dates:

PS3
Japan: November 11, 2006
North America: November 17, 2006

Xbox 360
North America: November 22, 2005
Europe: December 2, 2005
Japan: December 10, 2005

I’ll let people draw their own conclusions from there. Also, see how many sources you can find supporting a claim of 850,000 total Xbox 360 systems sold by the end of 2005, as I believe was suggested earlier in this thread.

If I had to guess, I would think that January NPD for the PS3 will be somewhere around 150,000 units, possibly as high as 200,000. Another 12 days and we will know for sure.

Is anyone still thinking that 20 million consoles by 08’ is a given?

Yeah, pretty much. What you have shown is that the PS3 is still selling even with basically no software out there. In other words, it really doesn't mean much. Let's see what happens in March and April when some big titles finally start coming out and the Europeans get their hands on the system. The end of 2008 is a looooong ways off with 2 major holiday seasons in between.

We had a poll earlier about sales of PS3 by end of 2010.

A bunch of people voted for >50M. If they dont reach 20M by end 2008, 50M by end 2010 sounds iffy..

excuse me for the ot response but what happened to the thread with your apology for using multiple aliases whatshd?

was the question ever answered about you being in the bda(bd insider)?

excuse me for the ot response but what happened to the thread with your apology for using multiple aliases whatshd?

was the question ever answered about you being in the bda(bd insider)?
I'm led to believe he was banned (he certainly should have been).

I think this post of his must have been before that.

thanks rdjam.

too bad they didn't leave the thread up, i was interested in the discussion. i guess it got really ugly.

thanks rdjam.

too bad they didn't leave the thread up, i was interested in the discussion. i guess it got really ugly.
Yes, mosts people's opinion was that it was deceitful and deliberate. I stayed out with my opinion, since I felt it would have been uneccesary anyway.

I left a little reference to the "assasination attempt" :) here.... (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9662991&&#post9662991)

Anyone that honestly thinks ps3 will sell 20 million units by 09' hasn't followed the game industry. Most console sales pick up after a console hits the 150-250 mark. Price is more important than brand-name when it comes to mass consumption.

i hope ps3 games come out pronto because from looking at the selection at bb today i wouldn't buy it.

even with all the blu ray releases the selection of great titles is thin :confused: