Not even sure what that means, are you implying they'll (Toshiba) fold by the fall? if so you'd be foolish to assume that. If you mean their selling out... thats about as improbable as the first one.
Well the ;) and the :) should have given you a clue that I was joking, but I'll clarify.

I just changed the post to say HD DVD discs instead of HD DVDs. I never meant to imply the hardware would be gone.

Well the ;) and the :) should have given you a clue that I was joking, but I'll clarify.

I just changed the post to say HD DVD discs instead of HD DVDs. I never meant to imply the hardware would be gone.
Shrug, the discs aren't going anywhere either, but ok.

Kosty?
Nope:

But it does sound that I could have wrote that piece. :D


It's kinda nice when the editor at large at Video Business agrees with you. :o

Maybe he reads our posts here on AVS?

Remember Grubert, when you were quoted around the world?

No high-def winner yet (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6419351.html)

Moreover, BD software sales in January also likely benefited from the 600,000-700,000 PlayStation 3 consoles sold in the U.S. in December, each of which came packaged with a $15 coupon for a BD movie.

We won’t know whether that PS3-propelled spike in sales will be sustained until we have a few months-worth of data.

If you look at lifetime data of the two formats, total software sales are about even, while BD has nearly a 5-to-1 lead in the installed hardware base if you include PS3 consoles. That suggests the overall attach rate of discs per player is far lower for Blu-ray than for HD DVD.

Insofar as PS3 is considered critical to the success of BD, in fact, it’s hard to see why anyone in the BD camp is feeling optimistic.

Nice to know he responds nicely to my personal coaching. :cool:

He even mentioned "ATTACH RATES." :D

Just like the PC mag ratio chart.

It implies a raw drop off in HD DVD sales, and that isnt the case.

A more accurate telling is something like the Amazon top 10 average chart


http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/...ank11allyg0.jpg


a sales volume or dollar sales chart would have a similar shape
Here's the Top 100 chart with some added trend lines:
http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t288/RustyC_337/hdgamedb_100_02222007.jpg

This does seem to indicate a drop off in HD DVD sales on Amazon.

No high-def winner yet (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6419351.html)Moreover, BD software sales in January also likely benefited from the 600,000-700,000 PlayStation 3 consoles sold in the U.S. in December, each of which came packaged with a $15 coupon for a BD movie.

We won’t know whether that PS3-propelled spike in sales will be sustained until we have a few months-worth of data.

If you look at lifetime data of the two formats, total software sales are about even, while BD has nearly a 5-to-1 lead in the installed hardware base if you include PS3 consoles. That suggests the overall attach rate of discs per player is far lower for Blu-ray than for HD DVD.

Insofar as PS3 is considered critical to the success of BD, in fact, it’s hard to see why anyone in the BD camp is feeling optimistic.

Nice to know he responds nicely to my personal coaching. :cool:

He even mentioned "ATTACH RATES." :D
Where is this $15 coupon that all these pro-HD DVD articles keep mentioning? I didn't get one with my PS3. Are they so desperate that they're totally making stuff up now? And again with the Wii knockdown..jeesh how well did the Toshiba HD DVD players sell compared to the Wii? :rolleyes:

I'd like to see Cymfony do a new forum survey today.

Was there a different offer than the $10 seven Blu-ray movies for a total of a $70 rebate direct from Sony for the PS3 purchases? That's what I meant.

Did the units with Talledega Nights have this $15 offer? Did any PS3 units?

Are they so desperate that they're totally making stuff up now? That was the editor at large from Video Business. not a Toshiba or HD DVD spokesman.

Even if he mispoke about the $15 off coupon the $70 rebate $10x 7 movies does much the same thing in its one time effect. That was the point.

I don't think he is desperate.

Shrug, the discs aren't going anywhere either, but ok.
Ahhh... I said... "joking."

Dang! The news today must've really wound some people up. I can't get the point across that I am joking with 2 emoticons!!! I guess I should end each joke line with...

"By the way... I am totally joking here. Please don't take this line seriously, nor hold me to said line as being factual or representative of my true opinion in any way. Any such holding to said line will not be admissible in a court of law and by reading this statement, you wave any action of liability against Sketcha and all of whom he represents. If your erection lasts for more than 8 hours, see your doctor immediately."

Too far?


By the way, b.greenway...

just kidding. ;)

:) :) :)

Insofar as PS3 is considered critical to the success of BD, in fact, it’s hard to see why anyone in the BD camp is feeling optimistic.


It is very strange that this kind of statement would come from Paul.

Nope:

But it does sound that I could have wrote that piece. :D

It's kinda nice when the editor at large at Video Business agrees with you. :o

Maybe he reads our posts here on AVS?Could be, as getting information wrong that matches incorrect information that has been posted here could be a sign of that. Kind of like somebody cheating during an exam by copying somebody else's wrong answer. Not sure who came up with this $15 coupon claim, but I've seen it here and I don't think it is true. This is the only place I recall seeing that claim until his article. So, maybe he is copying off people here.

--Darin

Here's the Top 100 chart with some added trend lines:

This does seem to indicate a drop off in HD DVD sales on Amazon.

For a lot of reasons, no it doesn't.

http://www.videostoremag.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=10323

BD has surpassed HD-DVD in total sales, did anyone see this?

rankings not sales...

i feel old and tired.

Could be, as getting information wrong that matches incorrect information that has been posted here could be a sign of that. Kind of like somebody cheating during an exam by copying somebody else's wrong answer. Not sure who came up with this $15 coupon claim, but I've seen it here and I don't think it is true. This is the only place I recall seeing that claim until his article. So, maybe he is copying off people here.

--Darin
Oh you reminded me of a story.

A good friend of mine used to copy off me in High School, Senior (1988,) Social Studies class, or Government, or something like that.

On one question he couldn't read my answer so he whispered to let me know.

The question was something to the effect of "What is the complex that houses the Russian Prime minister, etc. etc."

So I whispered back, "The Kremlin."

Apparently not loud enough because he wrote "Gremlin"

In our awards ceremony during our last few days of high school, my friend received the First Annual Gremlin Award for cheating on a test. Everyone cracked up! The trophy was a model Gremlin car mounted on a plaque.

The teacher was an extremely good natured and nice guy. My friend was never sanctioned for cheating and he passed the test with almost as good a score as mine. ;)

Thanks for the indulgence. Carry on.

http://www.videostoremag.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=10323

BD has surpassed HD-DVD in total sales, did anyone see this?


Someone should start a new thread about that... maybe we could call it something like Blu-ray software surpasses HD DVD lifetime-to-date (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=809888)...

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6418854.html

Sally reported that through Feb. 13, sales of Toshiba’s second HD-A2 ($499) and HD-XA2 ($999), which went on sale in late December, have eclipsed the lifetime sales of the company’s first-generation players.Interesting given what the head of Toshiba America said about sales in 2006. I recall him saying that over half were Gen2s. If the sales were good enough I'm guessing they would have given actual figures this time.

--Darin

I was thinking of the Fry's sale that included "The Fifth Element", but I don't remember the dates. Was Best Buy really running one of these for the 4th thru 10th of February? I remember them doing one back in January and then another later, but I didn't think it was that recent.

Yep, Best Buy was running this sale from the 4th thru the 10th. I BELIEVE that the Fry's sale might have been the same week as well, but I'm not sure of that as there are no Fry's in my area, and the deal wasn't available on-line.

There aren't any Best Buy's in my immediate area either (closest one is an hour away), but you could get their deal on-line... which made it too tempting to not take advantage of... so I did. I ordered it the night of the 10th (last day of the sale), and I received "Underworld: Evolution" in the mail on the 15th, and "Into The Blue" this past Tuesday (20th). I can't watch them yet, but they look pretty with my HD DVDs.

~Alan

Interesting given what the head of Toshiba America said about sales in 2006. I recall him saying that over half were Gen2s. If the sales were good enough I'm guessing they would have given actual figures this time.

--Darin Not true. Your guess is probably wrong.

At this stage actual sales figures are a competitive secret.

They will come out soon enough from NPD data or when Toshiba wants to make a major PR announcement about them, not in an interview.

BTW, I was told that that statement from the CEO was a translation error/loss of nuance and was meant to be less definitive.

Here's the Top 100 chart with some added trend lines:
This does seem to indicate a drop off in HD DVD sales on Amazon.For a lot of reasons, no it doesn't.The rankings of the titles are somehow based on the relative sales numbers of those titles against all HD and DVD titles, correct?
DVD sales numbers are orders of magnitudes larger than and constant for both HD formats, correct?
Over the past 45 days the average ranking of the top 100 HD DVD titles is trending down, correct?
If all the statements are true, why would this not indicate that HD DVD sales are falling? The top 100 chart is fairly close to the top 10 chart which shows the same trends. And 45 days is a pretty long time span; enough to factor out daily and weekly highs and lows.

Because they are competing with general DVD releases in the same group.

A slight decline may be because some general DVD releases with vastly larger volumes may have been proportionally larger than the HD DVD sales. If there have been no hit HD DVD releases they may have been some change in the overall base they are ranked against.

If they were sales total that's one thing, but relative rankings are another.

Either way the trend line is relatively flat, and is not not steep under any measure . Your axis scaling has as much affect on the perceived result as the position of the linear trend line.

Updated using Feb 18th figures. Looks like the weekly sales has slightly increased for both.

Day YTD SI BD# HD#
02/18 67.4/32.6 52.3/49.7 91,242** 44,340**
02/04 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9 44,856 20,114
01/28 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3 45,086 20,405
01/21 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9 133,564* 67,587*


* : for first three weeks of 2007.
** : for two weeks ending 2/18

See http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9843212&&#post9843212 for all the assumptions.

See http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9843212&&#post9843212 for all the assumptions.I'm not sure how you can calculate the last numbers unless somebody told us the final YTD (which I haven't seen) or something like that, but I did want to add up your numbers for all weeks to see what they show. I get:

Blu-ray: 314,748
HD DVD: 152,446
Difference: 162,302

I'm not sure if these weeks ending on Sunday count the Sunday as part of the previous week or part of the next week. If the previous week, then those numbers are for 49 days in, or close to 14% of the year. I'm not sure what percent of the market they cover, but with Toshiba saying that there were 175k+ players at the end of 2006, that 152k number for software looks interesting for almost 1/7th of the way through the year, and that is not even counting new players sold in 2007 that should account for some software sales.

Kosty's hinting at good news coming, so maybe there will be an announcement that will pick up HD DVD's pace.

--Darin

I'm not sure how you can calculate the last numbers unless somebody told us the final YTD (which I haven't seen) or something like that,

Final YTD / last number ... ? Which ones are you referring to ... ?

I'm not sure what percent of the market they cover, but with Toshiba saying that there were 175k+ players at the end of 2006, that 152k number for software looks interesting for almost 1/7th of the way through the year, and that is not even counting new players sold in 2007 that should account for some software sales.

Clearly there is a disconnect between Toshiba's numbers and these. Long time back we got 1.5M shipped numbers ... and only now is HD DVD coming to 600K. I guess videoscan is missing a large % of sales. So, not sure the attach rates we get out of these numbers are good - though they are indicative.

OTOH, one interesting thing to note is that BD to HD ratio seems to be somewhat constant. So, BD is not really gaining on HD DVD in any sense. I've seen a lot of products survive with a 33% market share. Heck, I know a product that survives with just 5% share in what is essentially a 2 horse race ;)

Final YTD / last number ... ? Which ones are you referring to ... ?I meant if somebody gave us the YTD for 2/18. Did you calculate that, or continue with the 67.4 from before?
Clearly there is a disconnect between Toshiba's numbers and these. Long time back we got 1.5M shipped numbers ... and only now is HD DVD coming to 600K. I guess videoscan is missing a large % of sales.Maybe there's a big disconnect between shipped and sold. It would be interesting to know how long some copies have been sitting around.
Heck, I know a product that survives with just 5% share in what is essentially a 2 horse race ;)Maybe it survives by being way better. ;) I'm kidding, but they have better commercials, IMO.

--Darin

Heck, I know a product that survives with just 5% share in what is essentially a 2 horse race ;)

Decent analogy, but let's expand. If you look at that further you will see one company (DVD?) has a 93% market share while another company has 5% and yet another has 2%. Somehow out of millions of these things being sold around the world all three survive.

Maybe there's a big disconnect between shipped and sold. It would be interesting to know how long some copies have been sitting around.

(((((Cough))))) Target (((((Cough)))))

~Alan

Maybe it survives by being way better. ;) I'm kidding, but they have better commercials, IMO.

--Darin

It's surviving at this point buy having become 98% like it's competitor.

For the first time, the Amazon ranking of BD's top 25 is better than that of HD's top 10. Largely symbolic, but still.

(And these 3 BD players have remained in the DVD top 60. Maybe there is some standalone hardware momentum building too.)

I meant if somebody gave us the YTD for 2/18. Did you calculate that, or continue with the 67.4 from before?

http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/7561/sales21807pe6.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I'm kidding, but they have better commercials, IMO.

I think there a niche market that likes an integrated approach .... ofcourse they found an industry where the integrated approach really clicks ... forcing us to follow in the footsteps.

Decent analogy, but let's expand. If you look at that further you will see one company (DVD?) has a 93% market share while another company has 5% and yet another has 2%. Somehow out of millions of these things being sold around the world all three survive.

Yep. This is the battle of pygmies ...

Blu-ray Summit Report (http://dvd.ign.com/articles/524/524681p1.html)

...The studios are betting on the adoption of HDTV sets to drive Blu-ray. After all, a full screen TV gets no benefit from an High Definition DVD. There are an estimated nine million HDTV sets installed in the U.S. currently and a projected 25 million will be sold by 2005.

They also emphasized Blu-ray is not going to make current DVD obsolete. "I'd be foolish to sit here and think it's not going to be around much longer," Andy Parsons, senior vice president of advanced product development for Pioneer Electronics told the crowd.

The consortium expects Blu-ray to piggyback onto DVD and be a gradual replacement, but there won't be the wholesale market shift like we saw with the move from VHS, where people couldn't get away from it fast enough...

ooh nice blast form the past.

I've always said Blu-ray companies would be in no hurry to replace DVD , andwould be content for years to have two tiers of content Blu-ray and DVD, while HD DVD companies see the similarity to DVD production a way to move a lot more content to HD faster by making it more available to niche productions.

Maybe I missed this http://www.blu-raymovierebate.com

"Now between 11/17/06 and 06/30/07, you can receive a $10 rebate on eligible Blu-ray Disc Movies! Using the original rebate forms found in your PS3 package, you can receive one $10 rebate from each of the 7 participating studios for a total rebate of $70.See below for qualifying Blu-ray disc movies from all participating studios. More titles will be added throughout the promotion, so be sure to check back often!"

Explains the "surge" in BD sales

"Now between 11/17/06 and 06/30/07, you can receive a $10 rebate on eligible Blu-ray Disc Movies! Using the original rebate forms found in your PS3 package, you can receive one $10 rebate from each of the 7 participating studios for a total rebate of $70.See below for qualifying Blu-ray disc movies from all participating studios. More titles will be added throughout the promotion, so be sure to check back often!"

Explains the "surge" in BD sales

It sure does? On Amazon, the top 5 released BD movies (limit to released to be conservative) are:
The Departed
The Prestige
Babel
Black Hawk Down
Crank

Oopsie! None of these videos qualifies for a rebate.

It's on PS3 owners and how many BD discs they have purchased. The majority have purchased at least 10 that frequent this forum.

Stromprophet: I voted in that poll, and it is extremely useless.

why?

1) it is on AVS, why would any AVSer have a PS3 and not own at least one movie?
2) it only asks if you own a PS3 and how many disks. I own more then 50 (so I voted that) but I also have a Samsung player.

I voted what the question asked, but don't even try and associate disks with player. (should all my disks count as stand alone, all as PS3, all as either, 50/50, how many I saw on each player -and then what about the 20+ that have yet to see-, average out on time, average out on # titles..... )

BTW, I was told that that statement from the CEO was a translation error/loss of nuance and was meant to be less definitive.

either way, he said 60k last year (both combined), even if the almost half was wrong and it was 40/20, 50/10, 55/5 it puts an extremely small limit on what second gen just surpassed 1st gen, let's face it every HD DVD supporter is expecting HD DVD to outdo DVD this year, if we are talking 25k/30k players a month, that becomes a major joke.

It sure does? On Amazon, the top 5 released BD movies (limit to released to be conservative) are:
The Departed
The Prestige
Babel
Black Hawk Down
Crank

Oopsie! None of these videos qualifies for a rebate.
Oh, those top 100 Amazon charts include only 5 titles? Holy Batman,what if they counted 100?????

My best guess was still 50,000 to 70,000 1st generation players total including the Wal-mart and RCA rebadges.

Also just a wild guess but I think that HD DVD players will have sold at least 40,000 units in february and are ramping up to sell 75000 or more in March and 100,000 or more per month from April on.

Thats my expectation.

Current HD DVD sales don't seem to support that at the moment, and I 've been predicting HD DVD sales to move up for a few weeks now, so its happening slower than I expected.

I didn't think the slowdown in HD DVD releases would have lasted this long. That surprised me a bit.

Were still midway into the first quarter, that's like 7:30 into a football game. Lots of time left

Also just a wild guess but I think that HD DVD palyers will have sold at least 40,000 untis in Febuary and are ramping up to sell 75000 or more in March and 100,000 or more per month from April on.

I doubt there is that much demand. Afterall consoles are selling only a couple of hundred each.

Well in the last VB article Toshiba VP said 2nd gen sales have already passed 1 gen sales in total units.

Toshiba CEO said 1,8 million units projected by end of year.

Probable MRSP cut in 60-90 days for the HD A2 to $399 list $299 by this fall.

Lower prices means more sales.

DVD player sales pick up dramatically in March and April

Well in the last VB article Toshiba VP said 2nd gen sales have already passed 1 gen sales in total units.

Assuming 70K 1st gen sales, we have had 2nd gen now for 2 months. I think 35K per month is a definite possibility ...but not 100K.

Probable MRSP cut in 60-90 days for the HD A2 to $399 list $299 by this fall.

Lower prices means more sales.

DVD player sales pick up dramatically in March and April

Yes, if the prices reach $299 ... that will push the sales up. I didn't know about the increase in March/April ... that might help too.

From this page it looks like March gets a boost in sales.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

We will have to see if the sales look like it did for dvd in '97 / '98 or '99. Currently the format are trailing DVD in player sales ... adjusted for launch.

It will take a few months to reach 100K I think.

It will take a few months to reach 100K I think.

This might happen in Q4 - around holiday season. I think the only way to push hidef dvd player sales is to practically give it away with every HDTV sold ....

Oh, those top 100 Amazon charts include only 5 titles? Holy Batman,what if they counted 100?????

Oh, I surely believe it is a factor on the lower part of the charts. But you claimed to have explained the "surge" in BD sales. Part of the "surge" in BD sales is that BD currently has 3 movies in Amazon's top 100 versus 1 for HD-DVD.

My implicit point was simply that your claim that this "Explains the "surge" in BD sales" was quite a strong and absolute statement to make. (And yes, it was reported and discussed before, which made me maybe a bit too edgy in responding.)

Sorry if I plowed old ground. Those coupons must have had some noticeable effect

The rankings of the titles are somehow based on the relative sales numbers of those titles against all HD and DVD titles, correct?
DVD sales numbers are orders of magnitudes larger than and constant for both HD formats, correct?
Over the past 45 days the average ranking of the top 100 HD DVD titles is trending down, correct?
If all the statements are true, why would this not indicate that HD DVD sales are falling? The top 100 chart is fairly close to the top 10 chart which shows the same trends. And 45 days is a pretty long time span; enough to factor out daily and weekly highs and lows.

Sorry, it's taken me a little while to get back to this.

(1) for a few reasons, an individual title's ranks can go down, up, or stay the same even if you have increased sales.

(2) Average rank can go up, down, or stay the same even if you have more sales as well.


One thing I would point out is that the interval between sales ranks is not consistent. So the number of sales it takes to get from rank 5 to rank 4 is not the same, or even proportional to, the number of sales it takes to get from rank 6 to rank 5. More importantly, the number of sales it takes to go from rank 10 to rank 5 is far higher than the amount it takes to go from rank 1000 to rank 500. Yet going from rank 1000 to 500 would have a far greater impact on your average than going from rank 10 to rank 5.

Therefore, even if you have more net sales for your top25 disc, your average rank can be effected by how your sales are distributed. You could increase your total number of sales, but do it in such away that your average actually goes lower, if they are distributed poorly.

The Amazon sales rank are only useful to get a general impression of who is doing better, in my opinion. It's not good at trends because averaging sales ranks isn't all that helpful.

One more number to chew on.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6418854.html?nid=2840

But lifetime sales of HD DVD and BD titles are running fairly even—at about 700,000 discs sold for each format through Feb. 10, according to one studio.

To get to this figure I assume a 550K figure for EOY '06 for HD DVD.

http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/6601/nielsenhidefzb9.gif (http://imageshack.us)

See http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9843212&&#post9843212 for all the assumptions.

edit : don't like the forum "table"

One more number to chew on.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6418854.html?nid=2840
Yes, this of course has been posted about, but it's pretty cool that we have a number and date to go off of now, assuming, of course that it's accurate.

EDIT:

Since I replied you added the table. Nice work.

Sorry if I plowed old ground. Those coupons must have had some noticeable effect Plowing old ground is ok here if you don't get upset about people pointing it out.

Plus sometimes it a very useful part of the current discussion.

This might happen in Q4 - around holiday season. I think the only way to push hidef dvd player sales is to practically give it away with every HDTV sold .... I disagree. I think it has is very possible by the summer if Toshiba builds and ships as many they say they will and they continue their Circuit City and Best Buy training programs.

Their literature drops are not due until the HD A20 ships and that will probably be with the $399 HD A2 MSRP.

I disagree.

I think that stems from my overall scepticism about the chances of HiDef. I'd be surprised if both formats together sold more movies than DVD in the next 5 years.

I think HD DVD has that chance as an HD DVD ecosystem has a chance of replacing many standard DVD only discs. In 5 years combo discs could be the legacy pressing standard.

If Blu-ray dominates, I think there will be a high def tier and a lower resolution standard def tier of releases.

My best guess was still 50,000 to 70,000 1st generation players total including the Wal-mart and RCA rebadges.How do you reconcile that with the head of Toshiba America's comments about 70k shipped and 60k sold total in 2006 (counting Gen1 and Gen2), along with 175k+ total for everything (when the XBOX360 add-on probably did over 100k in actuality, with NPD or whoever's numbers being on the low side)? You've mentioned the Toshiba's guys statements not being as definitive as they looked, so why do you think he said 60k sold? If you believe that number, how many do you think were Gen2's?
Also just a wild guess but I think that HD DVD players will have sold at least 40,000 units in february and are ramping up to sell 75000 or more in March and 100,000 or more per month from April on.Are you counting the XBOX360 add-on?

--Darin

My best guess was still 50,000 to 70,000 1st generation players total including the Wal-mart and RCA rebadges.Also just a wild guess but I think that HD DVD players will have sold at least 40,000 units in february and are ramping up to sell 75000 or more in March and 100,000 or more per month from April onI am talking only the Toshiba made standalone players., not the Xbox 360 HD DVD drives.

I think by the end of next week there will be 40,000-50,000 Toshiba first generation units in the field and 40,000 -50,000 HD A2 and HD XA2s in the field plus another 5,000-10,000 RCA and Wal-Mart HD A1 clones.

Total of 90,000 to 110,000 stand alone HD DVD players in the field about half in each generation plus the Xbox 360 add ons.

What do you think about 100,000 Xbox 360's HD DVD drives on top of that? Or more?

The think the interview date of the Toshiba interview explains something in his data snapshot, plus he wan't talking about the rebadged players.

I think the HD A2 sales will accelerate greatly in March and April.

Kosty: I can understand the RCA might not be included (but they did say 1st generation HD DVD and not 1st gen Toshiba players) but the WM is a Toshiba, it is just a different model number there is no way it is not included.

Kosty: I can understand the RCA might not be included (but they did say 1st generation HD DVD and not 1st gen Toshiba players) but the WM is a Toshiba, it is just a different model number there is no way it is not included. I understand. the WM would probably be included in the numbers.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=768075

I know DarinP thinks this was just a coincidence but here is my final poll numbers for the HD DVD poll I conducted through from Dec 13 through Jan 26

The numbers were consistent every on of the six weeks, so I'm sure this was an accurate representation of AVS members, which in this case I contend is a very good representation of this unique group that would buy the first generation HD DVD products. FWIW

Check this out.......

add the HD D1 together with the HD A1 and you get 449 A1 types to 113 XA1 types or an 3.9735 to 1 ratio,

not quite exactly 4:1 (*ahem* thanks AnthonyP :o) but amazingly close.

That either is a amazing coincidence or it is a strong hint of a round number being used in an executive decision.


39.40% (435) Toshiba HD A1
10.24% (113) Toshiba HD XA1
02.45% (027) RCA HDV5000
01.27% (014) Walmart HD D1

15.85% (175) Toshiba HD A2
04.71% (052) Toshiba HD XA2 (includes preorder)

01.54% (017) Toshiba HD E1 / HD XF2
00.45% (005) Toshiba HD XE1 / HD XA2 (Japan)

39.67% (438) X Box 360 HD DVD Player bundle

01.81% (020) Other (state reason in comments))

That either is a amazing coincidence or it is a strong hint of a round number being used in an executive decision.

don't know, I would never consider an AVS poll to be representative of the public and reality. I would assume more people here would buy disproportionately the better (more expensive) player

1000 people responding takes a lot of BS out and it was a public poll.

AVS are first adopter type people and poll was on a first adopter type product. In this case a good match. Self selection bias is obviously still there, but should affect spread between the format player types.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=768087

Numbers from the Blu-ray Poll started at the same time*

21.50% (161) PS3 20GB
49.13% (368) PS3 60GB

13.35% (100) Samsung
08.41% (063) Panasonic
09.61% (072) Sony
02.94% (022) Pioneer
01.87% (014) Phillips
01.47% (011) Other

34.18% (256) I also own a HD DVD player

Kinda bears out the theory that some AVS guys are movie fanatics are are willing to pay another $600 for another format's player, and that a lot of PS3's were bought to satisfy that Blu-ray first adopter demand.

Notice this doesn't skew toward the most expensive players, it overwhelmingly skews to the PS3.

The PS3 is 70% of the AVS first adopter purchases, and 34% of the Blu-ray purchasers are dual format.

If they are dual format, there buying Blu-ray now, because that's who is releasing now, but they could also go back and start buying HD DVDs.







* Note: this was marred a bit by 3-5 people voting in all categories, these numbers include at least 20 inflated votes from admissions of non ownership

One more number to chew on.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6418854.html?nid=2840



To get to this figure I assume a 550K figure for EOY '06 for HD DVD.

http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/6601/nielsenhidefzb9.gif (http://imageshack.us)

See http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9843212&&#post9843212 for all the assumptions.

edit : don't like the forum "table"

Nice work!

That gives sustained sales of about 57,000 units for BD and half that for HD DVD.

Also, what would the attach rates be?

When does Blu-ray reach market saturation? With the war ongoing, it doesn't make sense that Blu-ray would continue to gain at the current rate. At some point, its going to hit a brick wall where all those who are going to buy with an ongoing format war have bought in. It is possible, at this point, people may start buying the competing format to complete their collections (if no end is sight, they may concede).

The question is multiple parts, as usual:

1) At how many units will Blu-ray reach market saturation (when all the people who intend to buy Blu-ray during a format war have bought into Blu-ray)?

2) At this point, will it be possible for HD DVD to make up the ground? or will it be too substantial and the war will effectively end?

Initial posts updated.

Grubert,

Where is this data collected from (what stores)? I'm sure this info is present within this thread somewhere, but with a thread this size it would take forever to find it... ;)

Grubert,

Where is this data collected from (what stores)? I'm sure this info is present within this thread somewhere, but with a thread this size it would take forever to find it... ;)
It's been beaten to the ground lately. You should be able to find it within the last 10 pages, or so.

It's been beaten to the ground lately. You should be able to find it within the last 10 pages, or so.
Wrong!

20 pages back.

pdf

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9767608&&#post9767608

If you read the posts following, there is some debate of the accuracy of the list. However, I think we all agree that a high percentage are accurate. To be honest, I've forgotten who is excluded. Maybe someone else can take that ball and run.

Hey Grubert,

Should this list be in the OP?

Also, did anyone ever find the 2/11 figures?

And one more thing? Did we ever authenticate the list? Is Amazon still being counted?

Hey Grubert,

Should this list be in the OP?

Also, did anyone ever find the 2/11 figures?

And one more thing? Did we ever authenticate the list? Is Amazon still being counted?
Thank you!

I'd suggest at least adding it to the bottom of the 1st post as a footnote.

Thank you!

I'd suggest at least adding it to the bottom of the 1st post as a footnote.
Agreed. At least.

I've got a PM into Grubert. We'll get it figured out here soon.

Well I've been using Walmart to buy BR discs... I'll start buying them elsewhere so my 'vote' is counted. :)

Thanks again guys.

Well I've been using Walmart to buy BR discs... I'll start buying them elsewhere so my 'vote' is counted. :)

Thanks again guys.
Good for you! Yeah, at the present sales volumes, your vote DOES count! ;)

And you have it right, it is well covered on AVS that Walmart is not counted.

Yeah, at the present sales volumes, your vote DOES count!

:) :) :)

Yeah, at the present sales volumes, your vote DOES count! The weekly sales volume difference is something order of magnitude 25,000 units?

That's like a small local electoral precinct or a small city council seat or dog catcher election :eek:

Stand up and be counted!

So why isn't this thread a sticky in a forum like this?????????????????????

Wrong!

20 pages back.

pdf

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9767608&&#post9767608

If you read the posts following, there is some debate of the accuracy of the list. However, I think we all agree that a high percentage are accurate. To be honest, I've forgotten who is excluded. Maybe someone else can take that ball and run.

Hey Grubert,

Should this list be in the OP?

Yeah, why not? I'll add a link.



Also, did anyone ever find the 2/11 figures?

No. I'll send an email to Home Media Magazine to try to find out.

And one more thing? Did we ever authenticate the list? Is Amazon still being counted?

I have been asking around but no luck.

Also, did anyone ever find the 2/11 figures?

Call me a cynic if you will, but I think it was more attractive to skip that week so they could include the "First Alert data" and show BD surpassing HD DVD ASAP.

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"

First Alert data is subject to additions & corrections. Are the 2/18 numbers we have First Alert?

HMM should have stuck with a two-week lag reporting time, who cares about getting the data fast, it should be about getting it right.

I also think it would've been interesting to see how BRs 5-11/2 onslaught affected things.

I think its obvious that The Departed would've (should've) equalised the YTD more than is represented in the two week gap. What is a .09 shift would've probably been a 3% shift if we were comparing to last weeks, not last fortnights.

I really thought that the presumed close parity of The Departed sales combined with the presumed high volume would see Blu-ray go under 2:1 YTD though. Pleasantly surprised :)

First Alert data is subject to additions & corrections. Are the 2/18 numbers we have First Alert?
I think they are. It's too early yet for those numbers to be finalized. If this were a "normal" report we should be seeing data on the week fo Feb. 5th-11th this week.

I would caution everyone about relying too much on this data. It's interesting, but subject to correction (remember the combo disc fiasco from 1/7 and 1/14?).

Let's wait and see what the real numbers for 2/11 are. Elwar's commentary about The Departed is spot on. That one week of data should shed a lot of light on what's happening on the ground; more so than the protracted data from the 2/18 figures, even.

1000 people responding takes a lot of BS out and it was a public poll.

AVS are first adopter type people and poll was on a first adopter type product. In this case a good match.You know that there are different groups even within first adopter types. It is unlikely that people who go to the level of logging into a site like this and voting in a poll really represent that whole group of early adopters (or in this case even people who waited over 6 months).

It still amazes me how much of the information that the head of Toshiba America said is claimed to be false, like his 7:1 ratio. Maybe Toshiba should have somebody else giving out number if he has been giving out bogus information to the press.

--Darin

1000 people responding takes a lot of BS out and it was a public poll.


who said BS or fraud? let me go a different route

21.50% (161) PS3 20GB
49.13% (368) PS3 60GB

13.35% (100) Samsung
08.41% (063) Panasonic
09.61% (072) Sony
02.94% (022) Pioneer
01.87% (014) Phillips
01.47% (011) Other

according to this poll (same concept)
70.63 % of people that own a BD player own a PS3 and 13.35% own a Samsung. Do you think 6-7X more PS3s sold then Samsungs in reality? The none PS3 give 37.65, do you think that PS3 has less then 2x the players?

Nice work!

Thanks to Office 2007 :D

Also, what would the attach rates be?

Life time attach rates is somewhat easy. We know HD DVD player numbers were 175K by CES. Let us say 200K now. BD players would be 1M PS3s plus a few thousand CE players. Let us say 1M.

So, BD life time attach rate is 700K/1M = 0.7.

HD-DVD life time attach rate is 700K/200K = 3.5.

Annualized attach rates get tricky. We don't know the rate at which players got sold or the movie sale rate for 2006. When I get some time I'll cook up something ....

Annualized attach rates get tricky. We don't know the rate at which players got sold or the movie sale rate for 2006. When I get some time I'll cook up something ....

agree. That is what I am trying to get ome idiots to undersand.

My guess since close to 95% of BD players are PS3 and that it came out in late Nov and some of those where most likely Christmas presents that the .7 is ~ 2 Months
I would also guess that HD DVD players are around 50k before Oct (some going back to April) and so 1/4 are more then 5M so it would be somewhere between 4-6


annual rate must be somewhere around .7*6=4.2 and for HD DVD 3.5*3=10.5 and 3.5*2=7

That is what I am trying to get ome idiots to undersand.
Oh, the irony... that's signature material. :D

Grubert: february 4 history data missing from the first post. Most recent value was added but last one were not copypasted to a history part.
february 4
YTD: BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI: BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Grubert: february 4 history data missing from the first post. Most recent value was added but last one were not copypasted to a history part.
february 4
YTD: BD 100.00 HD 48.38
SI: BD 92.56 HD 100.00

Inserted. Thanks!

I don't need all these pointless analysis to understand the situation. Just looking at my pre-order for the next few months is enough. On the best weeks the ration are 2:1 for Blu-Ray.

I don't need all these pointless analysis to understand the situation. Just looking at my pre-order for the next few months is enough. On the best weeks the ration are 2:1 for Blu-Ray.

Thanks for letting us know that you are absolutely the perfect symbol of all BD and HD DVD consumers ;)

Thanks for letting us know that you are absolutely the perfect symbol of all BD and HD DVD consumers ;)

The consumers (that MS cares so much about) are speaking and they are choosing BD > 2:1 ... what's your problem?

I believe the studios have decided to slowly kill off HD DVD.

Do you still believe that?

The consumers (that MS cares so much about) are speaking and they are choosing BD > 2:1 ... what's your problem?

Strawman. Did I say I have a problem ? BTW, stop interjecting yourself in others' conversations :p

1) At how many units will Blu-ray reach market saturation (when all the people who intend to buy Blu-ray during a format war have bought into Blu-ray)?

2 million? 3 million? 10 million? Since new customers buying new players (inc PS3) will continue indefinitely (at least within the time span we're talking about), I don't believe you can actually get a number for this.

2) At this point, will it be possible for HD DVD to make up the ground? or will it be too substantial and the war will effectively end?

How exactly would Hd-dvd make up ground? Blu-ray has a "market saturation" point and hd-dvd (with much lower player penetration and much less new releases and potential blockbuster titles) does not?

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of Home Media Magazine, has been so kind as to send me the figures for the week ending February 11.

I want to express my heartfelt appreciation to Ms Prange for caring about the concerns of the enthusiast community.

Anyway, here goes the data from the week ended Feb. 11:
BD since inception 97.08 to HD DVD since inception 100
BD year-to-date 100 to HD DVD year-to-date 47.62

Includes HD DVD/DVD combos.


Converting that to market share percentages we can complete our table as follows:


Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 n/a 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 n/a 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 n/a 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7

Thanks lots !!!

How exactly would Hd-dvd make up ground? Blu-ray has a "market saturation" point and hd-dvd (with much lower player penetration and much less new releases and potential blockbuster titles) does not?

If Blu-ray meets market saturation, and HD DVD is still around, those owners could decide to buy into HD DVD meaning it would be possible for HD DVD to make up ground. I realize it is highly unlikely that HD DVD will see a sales advantage ever again, but it is possible they can make up some ground.

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of Home Media Magazine, has been so kind as to send me the figures for the week ending February 11.

I want to express my heartfelt appreciation to Ms Prange for caring about the concerns of the enthusiast community.

Ms. Prange, if you are reading this, thank you.

Grubert, thanks for the update!

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of Home Media Magazine, has been so kind as to send me the figures for the week ending February 11.

I want to express my heartfelt appreciation to Ms Prange for caring about the concerns of the enthusiast community.

Anyway, here goes the data from the week ended Feb. 11:
BD since inception 97.08 to HD DVD since inception 100
BD year-to-date 100 to HD DVD year-to-date 47.62

Includes HD DVD/DVD combos.


Converting that to market share percentages we can complete our table as follows:


Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 n/a 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 n/a 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 n/a 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7

Wow! What a jump, then between the 11th and the 18th!

Thanks, G.

This info does, somewhat substantiate the theory that the timing of the 18th announcement had motive. Doesn't do much to change the significance of it though. ;)

Wrong!

20 pages back.

pdf

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9767608&&#post9767608

If you read the posts following, there is some debate of the accuracy of the list. However, I think we all agree that a high percentage are accurate. To be honest, I've forgotten who is excluded. Maybe someone else can take that ball and run.

Hey Grubert,

Should this list be in the OP?

Also, did anyone ever find the 2/11 figures?

And one more thing? Did we ever authenticate the list? Is Amazon still being counted?

I still question the autheticity of that document. When I contacted Nielson, they would not give it out. Add that to the list of all the inaccuracies and inconsistancies found to be on the list, and I say it is pretty much BS. If it ever really was a list, it was from years ago and altered to make it seem more recent.

Wow! What a jump, then between the 11th and the 18th!

Thanks, G.

This info does, somewhat substantiate the theory that the timing of the 18th announcement had motive. Doesn't do much to change the significance of it though. ;) Yeah, its looks like they did not want to publish close, they wanted to publish over to maximize the PR or at least the headline news value.

Very close and then over the next week would have been anticlimatic. Better headline this way. Better Blu-ray PR value too. :rolleyes:


In fairness, maybe they just did not want to be scooped. I would have published both or at least the data for the 11th at the same time.

Thanks for letting us know that you are absolutely the perfect symbol of all BD and HD DVD consumers ;)


Talking about consumer moods, this ratio could quickly fall to 2:0 if Toshiba can get the combo disk to play properly on the XA2.

Yeah, its looks like they did not want to publish close, they wanted to publish over to maximize the PR or at least the headline news value.

Very close and then over the next week would have been anticlimatic. Better headline this way. Better Blu-ray PR value too. :rolleyes:


In fairness, maybe they just did not want to be scooped. I would have published both or at least the data for the 11th at the same time.
I don't know, maybe.

It seems to me that a publication like that doesn't really care about weekly, boring figures like we do. I think you nailed it on the head with the "scoop" idea. That was the big news. Not many would've gave a rat's a$$ about last week's figures in small print below. I think it's a bit paranoid to consider it a conspiracy based on this tiny, shred of non-evidence.

But that's AVS. ;)

Anyway, here goes the data from the week ended Feb. 11:
BD since inception 97.08 to HD DVD since inception 100
BD year-to-date 100 to HD DVD year-to-date 47.62


Your table shows upto the 18th and shows BD in the lead on SI sales.

Your table shows upto the 18th and shows BD in the lead on SI sales.

11 was missing. 18 was posted earlier. it is also on the front page

These are all true IF the data as reported is true. For now, I can't find it on their site. So, unless someone points me to a link that shows the actual data, I will have to start second guessing...

However, if this data is true. Then we are seeing the end of HD DVD. Like I said, new content had very little impact on the top 5 titles. It was all PS3!

It would illustrate a tremendous hardware momentum that again would prove that Fox was right about HD DVD being unable to create a beach head. Once again, I would have been wrong in my analysis.

Basically, I would have screwed up badly and had it been my job, I would expect to be fired :)
I just want to point out that even though I dont post here much I watch alot. I want Blu Ray to win. Why? One reason and one reason only, I have a PS3 and dont want to have to buy another player. Plazman is a much bigger man than 98% of people on forums (this and most all others) and deserves respect for that.

Anyway, here goes the data from the week ended Feb. 11:
BD since inception 97.08 to HD DVD since inception 100
BD year-to-date 100 to HD DVD year-to-date 47.62


Here we go.

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1408/nielsenhidefrx0.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Stephanie Prange, editor in chief of Home Media Magazine, has been so kind as to send me the figures for the week ending February 11.

I want to express my heartfelt appreciation to Ms Prange for caring about the concerns of the enthusiast community.

Anyway, here goes the data from the week ended Feb. 11:
BD since inception 97.08 to HD DVD since inception 100
BD year-to-date 100 to HD DVD year-to-date 47.62

Includes HD DVD/DVD combos.


Converting that to market share percentages we can complete our table as follows:


Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 n/a 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 n/a 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 n/a 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7



So, is it reasonable to conclude that it takes a 5+:1 ratio in BR player over HD-DVD players sold to achieve a 3:1 ratio in software sales ? If that's a yes, it's going to take a while for BR to replace SD DVD.

As an aside, I've been to Best Buy a few times recently, and whereas before I would always see people watching the BR demos (of which there are 3 in one store alone, and none for HD-DVD) and/or hang around the BR/HD-DVD aisle, I never ever see anybody there anymore. I have a feeling I'm not the only one having lost interest. That combined with the rampant piracy that is hitting both formats way too soon in their life cycle doesn't really spell bright future for HD optical IMO.

So, is it reasonable to conclude that it takes a 5+:1 ratio in BR player over HD-DVD players sold to achieve a 3:1 ratio in software sales ? If that's a yes, it's going to take a while for BR to replace SD DVD.You might be able to conclude some things about the PS3, but I don't think you could conclude anything like that about non-gamesystem players. If the PS3 had half the attach rate of those type of HD DVD players, then HD DVD would be in some trouble. I think they need way more than 2x the attach rate of the PS3. And the fact that the PS3 has a lower attach rate than players that are basically only movie players shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. We could have figured that out anytime in the year before it even launched just by thinking about it. I thought people knew that it should have a lower attach rate just based on what it is.

--Darin

darin,

And the fact that the PS3 has a lower attach rate than players that are basically only movie players shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. We could have figured that out anytime in the year before it even launched just by thinking about it.

And yet in the Fall, Xbdestroya said that virtually every PS3 owner would buy at least 1 movie to try it out, and some of the more extreme BD fanboys saying that the majority PS3 owners would buy lots of movies once they saw it in action.

You may have thought the attach rate would be lower, and I certainly did, but that was not the general consensus in the fall I would say.

darin,

And yet in the Fall, Xbdestroya said that virtually every PS3 owner would buy at least 1 movie to try it out, and some of the more extreme BD fanboys saying that the majority PS3 owners would buy lots of movies once they saw it in action.

You may have thought the attach rate would be lower, and I certainly did, but that was not the general consensus in the fall I would say.They didn't have to buy a movie to try it out - they got one free. At least the first 500,000 did, which was virtually all of the PS3s sold last fall. As reported by Sony, a significant number of PS3 owners answered Sony's online poll and the majority did say they planned to buy a Blu-ray movie.

I think it's likely that PS3 owners are renting games as well as movies to play on their shiny, well mine started off shiny, new machines.

I also think it's fair to say that most the the Blu-ray movies being sold are being sold to PS3 owners. Heck, many of the HD DVDs being sold are being sold to PS3 owners.

Here we go.

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1408/nielsenhidefrx0.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Very interesting. Some implications (always based on the assumed initial numbers):

Week 7 (endiing Feb. 18) was the best for both BD and HD DVD (if we average the sales for weeks 1-3), probably due to the release of The Departed, which has been reported as the best-selling hidef title yet.

However, that title gave a stronger boost to HD DVD sales than BD sales: HD DVD sales on week 7 were 28 percent higher than week 6, whereas BD sales were only 9 percent higher.

Projections going forward:

- If HD DVD continues to sell 28,000 copies per week and BD twice that, by July 1 BD sales since inception will be 1,817,000 while BD sales will be 1,276,000 , ie 1.42:1 or 58.7/41.3. YTD sales will be 1,465,000 for BD and 726,000 for HD DVD, ie 2.02:1 or 66.8/33.2.

However, that title gave a stronger boost to HD DVD sales than BD sales: HD DVD sales on week 7 were 28 percent higher than week 6, whereas BD sales were only 9 percent higher..
I would suggest this is because the lack of new releases (of any quality) on HD-DVD is drying up. Therefore, any new release with any substance will likely be heavily adopted by a good percentage of the HD-DVD camp. Since the BR folks have many other new release choices, I suspect we'll see their buying pattern is more diversified rather than heavily favoring one release (such as The Departed).


Projections going forward:

- If HD DVD continues to sell 28,000 copies per week and BD twice that, by July 1 BD sales since inception will be 1,817,000 while BD sales will be 1,276,000 , ie 1.42:1 or 58.7/41.3. YTD sales will be 1,465,000 for BD and 726,000 for HD DVD, ie 2.02:1 or 66.8/33.2.

I would also suggest that if the total monthly sales of optical HD discs sales are not above those numbers, the current optical HD formats are both in trouble. Sales need to be sloping up for both (or either) to survive. At this point in their life cycle, trending flat (or negative) over several months is a bad sign. For this reason alone, I hope your total number projections are substantially lower than the actual.

The best thing that could possibly happen for the survival optical HD is for one or the other to quickly die off. Let's all hope this happens sooner rather than later. :o

Here we go.

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1408/nielsenhidefrx0.gif (http://imageshack.us)If the numbers are order of magnitude correct here's a thought.

Blu-ray HD DVD

SI 752,876 743,896


2006 352,000 550,000 40 weeks of the year

2007 400,876 193,896 7 weeks of the year

113.89% 35.25% 7 week 2007 sales as % of 2006 salesBlu-ray disc sales obviously are accelerating with 400,876 new sales over the course of the last 7 weeks (752,876 SI - 352,000 for 2006).

400,876 Blu-ray disc for 2007 is an impressive 113% of all last years 352,000 sales.
Obviously very good for Blu-ray in that 7 week period.


But HD DVD is not standing still either, its increasing its sales rate also over last year.
Its not growing as fast as lt year, but its still growing at an accelerated pace.

Blu-ray disc sales obviously are accelerating with 400,876 new sales over the course of the last 7 weeks (752,876 SI - 352,000 for 2006).

193,896 HD DVD discs for 2007 is still a significant 35.25% of all last years 550,000 sales.
Its actually 55% of what Blu-ray managed in all of last year.

So in 7 weeks of this year HD DVD also did 35.25% or over a third of last years HD DVD sales and also half of Blu-ray sales for last year.

Thats actually significant increase in HD DVDs sales rate also, not as much as Blu-ray's to be sure, but thats accelerating real growth and profits for HD DVD compared to last year, without the benefit of any significant releases for several months now. A lot of posts here give th impression HDDV sales are falling, they aer not, they are just not rising as fast as Blu-rays.

Its not so much that HD DVD is slowing down, its that its growth rate is less than the Blu-ray growth that surged past it.

But it also looks like the Feb 18 numbers even show that sales rate accelerating.

Very interesting. Some implications (always based on the assumed initial numbers):

Week 7 (endiing Feb. 18) was the best for both BD and HD DVD (if we average the sales for weeks 1-3), probably due to the release of The Departed, which has been reported as the best-selling hidef title yet.

However, that title gave a stronger boost to HD DVD sales than BD sales: HD DVD sales on week 7 were 28 percent higher than week 6, whereas BD sales were only 9 percent higher.

Projections going forward:

- If HD DVD continues to sell 28,000 copies per week and BD twice that, by July 1 BD sales since inception will be 1,817,000 while BD sales will be 1,276,000 , ie 1.42:1 or 58.7/41.3. YTD sales will be 1,465,000 for BD and 726,000 for HD DVD, ie 2.02:1 or 66.8/33.2. Doesn't that kind of projection assume that the ratio of HD DVD releases to Blu-ray releases stays about the same, the lack of HD DVD releases continue and the ratio and attach rates of PS3s sold and standalone Blu-ray and HD DVD players stay the same.

Those are really big assumptions for a projection. ;)

by July 1 BD sales since inception will be 1,817,000

Let us say 2M sales of 250 movies. That is a paltry 8,000 copies per movie. Even if the margin is $10 per movie - $80K a movie is simply not worth it.

The sales have to increase substantially before any studio will be forced to switch because of "don't want to leave money on the table" argument.

From the few weeks we have seen - the sales are not increasing. For eg. the first 3 weeks for BD gave it 170K and the next three weeks 169K.

But it also looks like the Feb 18 numbers even show that sales rate accelerating.
I originally was going to post this, but then I realized that the bump in both figures on the 18th may be due to the release of The Departed on February 13th.

If you look at the trend for the previous two weeks, sales were actually dropping off slightly for both formats. Without the very obvious boost from The Departed, the numbers would have been lower still I think.

I think there is obvious evidence of growth on both sides, but I don't feel the tenuous data from February 18th isn't admissable as evidence of growth until we see what the sales results from the week of February 25th are like. Obviously sales overall should grow over time with the title catalog available for each format, but until the release of The Departed, it looks like HD-DVD was treading water (with Blu-ray not doing all that much better).

Some of this is obviously post-Christmas slump as far as available disposable income, but I don't feel comfortable in drawing trending conclusions from a single datapoint.

I originally was going to post this, but then I realized that the bump in both figures on the 18th may be due to the release of The Departed on February 13th.

If you look at the trend for the previous two weeks, sales were actually dropping off slightly for both formats. Without the very obvious boost from The Departed, the numbers would have been lower still I think.

I think there is obvious evidence of growth on both sides, but I don't feel the tenuous data from February 18th isn't admissable as evidence of growth until we see what the sales results from the week of February 25th are like. Obviously sales overall should grow over time with the title catalog available for each format, but until the release of The Departed, it looks like HD-DVD was treading water (with Blu-ray not doing all that much better).

Some of this is obviously post-Christmas slump as far as available disposable income, but I don't feel comfortable in drawing trending conclusions from a single datapoint. I agree with you. One week is to short a time.

If we eventually can tell that it is because of the sales of The Departed, which would be the first significant new movie release for HD DVD in a while, it could bode well for HD DVD sales with additional releases.

But again, much too early to tell.

darin,



And yet in the Fall, Xbdestroya said that virtually every PS3 owner would buy at least 1 movie to try it out, and some of the more extreme BD fanboys saying that the majority PS3 owners would buy lots of movies once they saw it in action.

You may have thought the attach rate would be lower, and I certainly did, but that was not the general consensus in the fall I would say.
Then there's the minority, like me that have said from the beginning that the PS3 will have the greatest effect on the rental market, which, I believe is every bit as important. Netflix and BB do have to BUY their discs, after all. And we have yet to get figures on that. If I were arguing in HD DVD's favor, I would not be in a hurry to hear those figures.

Here we go.

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1408/nielsenhidefrx0.gif (http://imageshack.us)


I have a question wouldn't this mean that there are at least 25k HD DVD players, sold per month.

I.E. Ppl that own a HD DVD buying copies.

25k x 52 = 1.3 mil players in 2007?

Does this make since? :confused:

I have a question wouldn't this mean that there are at least 25k HD DVD players, sold per month.

I.E. Ppl that own a HD DVD buying copies.

25k x 52 = 1.3 mil players in 2007?

Does this make since? :confused:

If you assume that 25,000 or so HD DVD movies are being sold a week and that noone except the new owners for that are buying them. :D

I think that new owners normally walk out of the store with a least two movies though, and probably buy at least some more in the weeks thereafter.

But 100,000 HD DVDmovies each month without a lot of new releases mean a lot of new owners are probably buying HD DVD players. The assumption is the newer owners are buying the older releases.

Of course even more Blu-ray sales means the same for Blu-ray with the difference being more Blu-ray new releases for older owners to buy.

Then there's the minority, like me that have said from the beginning that the PS3 will have the greatest effect on the rental market, which, I believe is every bit as important. Netflix and BB do have to BUY their discs, after all. And we have yet to get figures on that. If I were arguing in HD DVD's favor, I would not be in a hurry to hear those figures.HD DVD owners and Xbox 360 HD DVD owners rent from Netflix and Blockbuster too. ;)

Projections going forward:

- If HD DVD continues to sell 28,000 copies per week and BD twice that, by July 1 BD sales since inception will be 1,817,000 while BD sales will be 1,276,000 , ie 1.42:1 or 58.7/41.3. YTD sales will be 1,465,000 for BD and 726,000 for HD DVD, ie 2.02:1 or 66.8/33.2.

You're may be forgetting that "Casino Royale" and POTC and POTC II will have been released on Blu-Ray before that time, and these titles will probably be three of the biggest titles to hit HD media since "Superman Returns" and "Saw III" (the best selling Blu-Ray title).

~Alan

HD DVD owners and Xbox 360 HD DVD owners rent from Netflix and Blockbuster too. ;)
I'm sorry Kosty. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I know how sensitive you are. ;)

(insider)

Never said they didn't, K. I don't know how many times I have to say this. Hopefully not as many times as you've tried to convince me that attach rates are the thing. :D

We all know that the PS3 is a different animal.

1. 360 add-on owners can be considered almost the movie buffs as standalone owners with similar "attach rates." ;)

2. There are many PS3 owners who bought and even more will soon be buying the PS3 as, primarily a gaming machine that also plays BDs. These are the people that are more likely to rent; especially at first. Many of them will not have HDTVs but since prices are the same on Netflix and BB atleast, there is no reason for them not to try out their fancy, new, expensive machine. Many of them are likely to discover that, though they can't realize much of a resolution difference, the color will be better.

And let's talk about resolution for a minute. Is it not possible that a 1080i source downrezzed to 480p could look better on an SDTV than a 480i source upscaled?

I think people who come from the adversarial perspective are prone to failure of recognition of the possibilities of the opposition. To me, the fact that the PS3 is much more inclined to have an effect on the rental market, per machine is extremely obvious.

I have a question wouldn't this mean that there are at least 25k HD DVD players, sold per month.

I.E. Ppl that own a HD DVD buying copies.

25k x 52 = 1.3 mil players in 2007?

Does this make since? :confused:

The number are NOT for the players sold - but movies. Yes, it is quite small ...

If you assume that 25,000 or so HD DVD movies are being sold a week and that noone except the new owners for that are buying them. :D

I think that new owners normally walk out of the store with a least two movies though, and probably buy at least some more in the weeks thereafter.

But 100,000 HD DVDmovies each month without a lot of new releases mean a lot of new owners are probably buying HD DVD players. The assumption is the newer owners are buying the older releases.

Of course even more Blu-ray sales means the same for Blu-ray with the difference being more Blu-ray new releases for older owners to buy.


This is a fair statement.

The number are NOT for the players sold - but movies. Yes, it is quite small ... I think his point (at least my point) was even though the numbers of movies was small. that was kinda expected since the numbers of titles released has also been small. (or as HD DVD advocates has noted almost nonexistent) compared to Blu-ray's slate of recently released titles.

Thus is might not be a bad assumption to say that those 25,000 movies per week have mostly been bought by new owners of shiny new HD DVD players buying the older new HD DVD releases (which look new to a new owner).

He was implying that 25, 000 movie units sold a week implied that 25,000 new HD DVD players were sold each weekend that would equal 1.3 million new players a year would be sold if you projected that rate for a year.

I added that it made sense but new owners typically buy two disks with each purchase and some more in the next couple weeks after purchase so the new players sales would not be that high for HD DVD in Jan and Feb based on that line of reasoning.

100,000 movies sales in a month with few new releases reported by Videoscan may very well imply 50,000 new HD DVD player sales in that month, considering that they don't capture the entire market.

I'm sorry Kosty. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings. I know how sensitive you are. ;)

(insider)

Never said they didn't, K. I don't know how many times I have to say this. Hopefully not as many times as you've tried to convince me that attach rates are the thing. :D

We all know that the PS3 is a different animal.

1. 360 add-on owners can be considered almost the movie buffs as standalone owners with similar "attach rates." ;)

2. There are many PS3 owners who bought and even more will soon be buying the PS3 as, primarily a gaming machine that also plays BDs. These are the people that are more likely to rent; especially at first. Many of them will not have HDTVs but since prices are the same on Netflix and BB atleast, there is no reason for them not to try out their fancy, new, expensive machine. Many of them are likely to discover that, though they can't realize much of a resolution difference, the color will be better.

And let's talk about resolution for a minute. Is it not possible that a 1080i source downrezzed to 480p could look better on an SDTV than a 480i source upscaled?

I think people who come from the adversarial perspective are prone to failure of recognition of the possibilities of the opposition. To me, the fact that the PS3 is much more inclined to have an effect on the rental market, per machine is extremely obvious. PS3 and Xbox 360 owners may be even to cheap or indifferent to even sign up for Netflix or Blockbuster Online.

Their rental rates will probably increase when B&M rentals are available.


Totally agree though that Netflix inventory buying is a hidden sales base for both formats.

PS3 and Xbox 360 owners may be even to cheap or indifferent to even sign up for Netflix or Blockbuster Online.

Who are you calling cheap?

PS3 with Netflix account :)

Who are you calling cheap?

PS3 with Netflix account :)
Ditto. I spent way too much on DVDs, so I'm renting a lot more than I ever did in the past. Enough to warrant a Netflix account. I'm buying mostly new releases that I know I will watch again, but renting any catalog titles.

Originally Posted by kbellve
Who are you calling cheap?

PS3 with Netflix account

Ditto. I spent way too much on DVDs, so I'm renting a lot more than I ever did in the past. Enough to warrant a Netflix account. I'm buying mostly new releases that I know I will watch again, but renting any catalog titles.
Ooh you stepped in it there, Kosty. :p

I don't blame you for trying to diminish my argument, but you're not doing a very good job.

I'm guessing there are plenty of single PS3 owners with a little disposable income, no interest in home ownership, no kids, few responsibilities, etc. etc. that can easily afford the 18 bucks a month.

Have you forgotten what it was like to be young?

I know when I was young I couldn't wait to spend my extra cash on CDs. I bought like 300 of them within just a few years!

Never underestimate the power of the gamer to blow cash on more fun.

But HD DVD is not standing still either, its increasing its sales rate also over last year.
Its not growing as fast as lt year, but its still growing at an accelerated pace.It is when you count all of last year, including the period of time early on when HD DVD had less than 10% of the installed base they have now. I don't see much to indicate that HD DVD is selling more per week than they were in October, November, or December though.
A lot of posts here give th impression HDDV sales are falling, they aer not, they are just not rising as fast as Blu-rays.Maybe they are from the last couple of months of 2006 or so.
Thus is might not be a bad assumption to say that those 25,000 movies per week have mostly been bought by new owners of shiny new HD DVD players buying the older new HD DVD releases (which look new to a new owner).For most of them to have been bought by new owners this year, that would mean that 175k owners from 2006 were buying less than 12,500 discs per week through the first 7 weeks of this year. That would be an annualized attach rate of under 4 for those owners for that period. If the average ownership time for 2006 was 7 weeks (the year was pretty back ended) and the average annualized attach rate for them was 28 (and not just 28 for owners through September), then that would take the annualized rate down to under 16 for that group. People shouldn't use the annualized attachment rate of 28 for HD DVD if over half of this years sales are going to be said to be going to new owners this year.

Do you believe that those 175k owners bought on average half a disc each through the first 7 weeks of this year (or one disc per 14 owners per week), and that this group was buying at an annualized rate of 28 per year, or over half a disc per week, before that? The half a disc in 7 weeks would be the result of 12,500 sales per week for 7 weeks to a group that size.

Releases may be a little slow, but I just find it a little amazing that out the following list:

Clerks 2
Lucky Number Slevin
The Mummy Returns
Poseidon
Pulse
Scooby-Doo
Alice Cooper at Montreux
Black Rain
Brokeback Mountain
Beerfest
Half Baked
The Wicker Man
Hollywoodland
The Departed (although only available for a few days of this period)

and all of the other titles still available, that 175k owners of HD DVD players would only buy half a disc each on average through those 7 weeks. Or even less than half a disc each total during that period if you want to say that most software sales were to new owners.

Note: I realized that my numbers might be a little off if software sales are US only and hardware is North America, but the general idea still stands.

--Darin

You might be able to conclude some things about the PS3, but I don't think you could conclude anything like that about non-gamesystem players. If the PS3 had half the attach rate of those type of HD DVD players, then HD DVD would be in some trouble. I think they need way more than 2x the attach rate of the PS3. And the fact that the PS3 has a lower attach rate than players that are basically only movie players shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. We could have figured that out anytime in the year before it even launched just by thinking about it. I thought people knew that it should have a lower attach rate just based on what it is.

--Darin

Excepted that according to Sony, more than 80% of PS3s are used to play BR. I got the survey they are using to affirm that point when I bought my PS3, and the way it was formulated, it doesn't surprise me in the least that they would get more than 80% people saying yes to trying a BR movie on their PS3, especially considering the 1st 500,000 units came with one... Isn't the PS3 essentially the BR market right now ? And wasn't it from the very start the selling point for Sony, ie, "PS3 will put millions of BR players in homes" ? If that's an affirmative, then why shouldn't attach rates of PS3s being compared to attach rates of movie players ?

If that's an affirmative, then why shouldn't attach rates of PS3s being compared to attach rates of movie players ?
I think they can be, if taken into perspective. Attach rates would be an internal tool for those with a vested interest (BDA, supporting studios, supporting hardware manufacturers, etc.) to use. They would probably have expected attach rates for dedicated players and the PS3. The thing is, the PS3's projected or expected attach rate would be lower than a dedicated player's. The comparison would come in when looking at the ability of the PS3's ability to meet it's projected attach rate versus the dedicated players' ability to match theirs. Attach rates are all about the expectations of the companies involved with the product and how they relate to potential profit.

I think they can be, if taken into perspective. Attach rates would be an internal tool for those with a vested interest (BDA, supporting studios, supporting hardware manufacturers, etc.) to use. They would probably have expected attach rates for dedicated players and the PS3. The thing is, the PS3's projected or expected attach rate would be lower than a dedicated player's. The comparison would come in when looking at the ability of the PS3's ability to meet it's projected attach rate versus the dedicated players' ability to match theirs. Attach rates are all about the expectations of the companies involved with the product and how they relate to potential profit.
Well said.

Ooh you stepped in it there, Kosty. :p

I don't blame you for trying to diminish my argument, but you're not doing a very good job.

I'm guessing there are plenty of single PS3 owners with a little disposable income, no interest in home ownership, no kids, few responsibilities, etc. etc. that can easily afford the 18 bucks a month.

Have you forgotten what it was like to be young?

I know when I was young I couldn't wait to spend my extra cash on CDs. I bought like 300 of them within just a few years!

Never underestimate the power of the gamer to blow cash on more fun. Hey, stop right there. I even Netflix a lot, me being on the 6 out at a time club.

Any PS3 user that finds his way here on AVS is probably atypical anyway. :p

I was not saying PS3 owners would not or could not Netflix. I was saying that HD DVD owners Netflix too.

I agreed with you that this is a topic that has been mostly unexplored.

I even started a thread on it for you. :)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=804549

Here we go.
http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1408/nielsenhidefrx0.gif (http://imageshack.us)
If you look for small mercies, you may find them.
From Nataraj's base numbers (21 Jan), the weeks of 11 Feb and 18 Feb each showed a BD increase of 32% and 35% respectively, while HD showed 28% and 36%. So BD sales increased by 3% and HD sales 8% (roughly) in the last week.

I think they can be, if taken into perspective. Attach rates would be an internal tool for those with a vested interest (BDA, supporting studios, supporting hardware manufacturers, etc.) to use. They would probably have expected attach rates for dedicated players and the PS3. The thing is, the PS3's projected or expected attach rate would be lower than a dedicated player's. The comparison would come in when looking at the ability of the PS3's ability to meet it's projected attach rate versus the dedicated players' ability to match theirs. Attach rates are all about the expectations of the companies involved with the product and how they relate to potential profit. Nicely said.

Decision makers will however be also comparing the actual attach rates and impact on Blu-ray sales against the promises and expectations that Sony and the BDA raised before the PS3 launch and how they will sustain over time.

If you look for small mercies, you may find them.
From Nataraj's base numbers (21 Jan), the weeks of 11 Feb and 18 Feb each showed a BD increase of 32% and 35% respectively, while HD showed 28% and 36%. So BD sales increased by 3% and HD sales 8% (roughly) in the last week. Well that meant that HD DVD went from being beated across both the head and shoulders in the weekly Nielson stat race to be only beaten on top of the head.

Blu-ray still outsold HD DVD 2:1. If the gap closes next week, then we may have something of mini reverse trend.

Blu-ray still outsold HD DVD 2:1. If the gap closes next week, then we may have something of mini reverse trend.I wouldn't expect HD DVD to close the gap given "Babel" (both) and "The Prestige" (Blu-ray exclusive), but if they did I would say that would be a good sign for them. The releases for the week ending March 4th are a little closer and then the data for the week ending March 11th should be interesting given no new releases for either format that week. Of course, the week ending the 17th includes "Casino Royale" and the week ending the 24th has 3 day-and-date releases for Blu-ray, with currently none announced for HD DVD (although "Blood Diamond" could still get announced for both).

--Darin

Hey, stop right there. I even Netflix a lot, me being on the 6 out at a time club.

Any PS3 user that finds his way here on AVS is probably atypical anyway. :p

I was not saying PS3 owners would not or could not Netflix. I was saying that HD DVD owners Netflix too.

I agreed with you that this is a topic that has been mostly unexplored.

I even started a thread on it for you. :)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=804549
Don't get mad at me, man. I didn't say all that stuff. :)

Yes, you did throw me a bone with your agreement verbiage. :)

And Yes, you did start a thread on the subject and I appreciate it. :)

But you've never, really acknowledged my belief that the PS3 will have more of an effect on the rental market than the rest of the lot. Instead, you basically diminished it. That's fine. It's your God-give right as an HD DVD fanboy... ahem... I mean... supporter. :D ;)

And I didn't say that you said "PS3 owners would not or could not Netflix." Just that you said "PS3 and Xbox 360 owners may be even to cheap or indifferent to even sign up for Netflix or Blockbuster Online."

It's alright, dude. You're still my bro. I maybe should have used more emoticons, being as you're so sensitive. :D

(Inside joke. He's really not. He's actually a total Harda$$ :D )

Well that meant that HD DVD went from being beated across both the head and shoulders in the weekly Nielson stat race to be only beaten on top of the head.

Blu-ray still outsold HD DVD 2:1. If the gap closes next week, then we may have something of mini reverse trend.

How can the gap close when there are no releases for HD-DVD ? The sad part is everything done on HD-DVD's side points to "abandon", and this war is as much psychological at this moment in time than it is about numbers. Which is why Sony and Fox are using it to their full advantage and want to put the message out there that BR won the war (yet again).

I believe that if we would see a day with as many good quality releases on both formats (it would have to be soon), the ratio wouldn't even be 1.5:1 in favor of BR, and that would show one thing : PS3 attach rate for BR movies is weak, and will get weaker once the real good games show up. Sony, Fox, Disney, and LG know it, so they're just throwing out everything but the kitchen sink right now in order to grow the user base enough until the great games come from june going forward, at which point they hope there is enough PS3s out there to make up for that decreasing attach rate. Then they will have lower cost movie only players available to finally offer people a choice (still at a $500 entry point, mind you, but that's a start).

Personally, I'll be a happy camper if HD-DVD holds out long enough so we get 3 or 4 studios going THD and/or we get other dual format players. And to the BR fanboys, this is my opinion, so keep your personal attacks to yourself, as I'm neither a movie studio exec nor own major stocks of whatever company, just like none of you do.

How can the gap close when there are no releases for HD-DVD ?

Lot of new player sales.

If PS3 users were really buying BD movies ... thats all BD requires as well. If there are 250K PS3 sales per month, if they all buy One movie each, that is 250K movies per month. About the same BD is selling now. No need for new releases.

How can the gap close when there are no releases for HD-DVD ? The sad part is everything done on HD-DVD's side points to "abandon", and this war is as much psychological at this moment in time than it is about numbers. Which is why Sony and Fox are using it to their full advantage and want to put the message out there that BR won the war (yet again).

I believe that if we would see a day with as many good quality releases on both formats (it would have to be soon), the ratio wouldn't even be 1.5:1 in favor of BR, and that would show one thing : PS3 attach rate for BR movies is weak, and will get weaker once the real good games show up. Sony, Fox, Disney, and LG know it, so they're just throwing out everything but the kitchen sink right now in order to grow the user base enough until the great games come from june going forward, at which point they hope there is enough PS3s out there to make up for that decreasing attach rate. Then they will have lower cost movie only players available to finally offer people a choice (still at a $500 entry point, mind you, but that's a start).

Personally, I'll be a happy camper if HD-DVD holds out long enough so we get 3 or 4 studios going THD and/or we get other dual format players. And to the BR fanboys, this is my opinion, so keep your personal attacks to yourself, as I'm neither a movie studio exec nor own major stocks of whatever company, just like none of you do.
Well I don't know if I quite qualify as the typical "fanboy" or not, but actually, I think this is mostly logical and well thought-out, as well as a bit of a mirror of some of my own theories.

Personally, I believe that March will see an increase in PS3 sales, as well as any other period where game releases are strong, ala June. I also believe that these increases should roughly offset any decrease in BD attach rates. It appears that you have similar thoughts.

As far as your 1.5:1 and your hope for THD, well we part ways, a bit there, but those are J Our NSHOs.

Lot of new player sales.

If PS3 users were really buying BD movies ... thats all BD requires as well. If there are 250K PS3 sales per month, if they all buy One movie each, that is 250K movies per month. About the same BD is selling now. No need for new releases.

and thats not really going to change much in the next few month. ps3 sales will be relativly flat in N.A. maybe a bit better with more games.

But we are only seeing part of the picture. what about world wide?

japan has like a 90% blu-ray only stance. and europe will have the ps3 in 22 days.

numbers will still be low. but the ps3 low attach rate player will still have 3-4 million units sold.

and thats not really going to change much in the next few month. ps3 sales will be relativly flat in N.A. maybe a bit better with more games.

But we are only seeing part of the picture. what about world wide?

japan has like a 90% blu-ray only stance. and europe will have the ps3 in 22 days.

numbers will still be low. but the ps3 low attach rate player will still have 3-4 million units sold.

Videoscan/Nielson numbers we are getting are US only (or is it NA ?). Unless we hear some numbers for other regions we limit ourselfs to US/NA here ...

Lot of new player sales.

If PS3 users were really buying BD movies ... thats all BD requires as well. If there are 250K PS3 sales per month, if they all buy One movie each, that is 250K movies per month. About the same BD is selling now. No need for new releases.


Then BD sales are going to be pulling away right? Unless you really expect all the Tosh players combined to equal PS3 sales?

Top 10 for the week ending Feb. 25, according to RenTrak:

Top 10 HD DVD
1 The Departed
2 Batman Begins
3 Babel
4 Troy
5 Goodfellas
6 Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
7 Hollywoodland
8 Serenity
9 The Last Samurai
10 The Bourne Supremacy

Top 10 BD
1 Babel
2 The Departed
3 Superman Returns
4 The Prestige
5 The Fifth Element
6 Terminator 2
7 X-Men: The Last Stand
8 Crank
9 Black Hawk Down
10 Flyboys

Top 10 for the week ending Feb. 25, according to RenTrak:

Top 10 HD DVD
1 The Departed
2 Batman Begins
3 Babel
4 Troy
5 Goodfellas
6 Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
7 Hollywoodland
8 Serenity
9 The Last Samurai
10 The Bourne Supremacy

Top 10 BD
1 Babel
2 The Departed
3 Superman Returns
4 The Prestige
5 The Fifth Element
6 Terminator 2
7 X-Men: The Last Stand
8 Crank
9 Black Hawk Down
10 Flyboys

it's interesting that the 5th element and terminator 2 are top movies for Blu-ray...a fair percentage of buyers must be new to the format.

it's interesting that the 5th element and terminator 2 are top movies for Blu-ray...a fair percentage of buyers must be new to the format.

Also, the Batman Begins HD DVD is consistently at the top - and this week it outsold the only new HD DVD release (Babel)!

Then BD sales are going to be pulling away right? Unless you really expect all the Tosh players combined to equal PS3 sales?

That's it in a nutshell...the blu-ray side has:

1. more total players out there by a huge margin, and it's only going to get worse

2. more titles out there and more blockbusters and more exclusive studios supporting it

3. a potential blu-ray player that's as cost-competitive as the cheap toshiba players

The first 2 explain the current surge in Blu-ray title sales, such that it is now outselling Hd-DVD by more than 2 to 1.

But add those 3 together and you can pretty much ALSO predict what's going to happen. HD-DVD is a big train wreck that's going on in slow-mo :p

That's it in a nutshell...the blu-ray side has:

1. more total players out there by a huge margin, and it's only going to get worse

2. more titles out there and more blockbusters and more exclusive studios supporting it

3. a potential blu-ray player that's as cost-competitive as the cheap toshiba players

The first 2 explain the current surge in Blu-ray title sales, such that it is now outselling Hd-DVD by more than 2 to 1.

But add those 3 together and you can pretty much ALSO predict what's going to happen. HD-DVD is a big train wreck that's going on in slow-mo :p
1. as said before, the PS3'rs return to buying games and not movies
2. the 300 HD releases announced at CES begin to arrive
3. by the time the Sony player arrives it will no longer be cost competitive

BD will be a big train wreck in real time :D

I'm guessing there are plenty of single PS3 owners with a little disposable income, no interest in home ownership, no kids, few responsibilities, etc. etc. that can easily afford the 18 bucks a month.
.

What I think people are forgetting are people like me. I have kids who like to playstation games. I also have a lot of disposable income. I also have a home theatre, but I also didn't want to pick a high-def DVD winner at this time. Along comes the PS3 and I can kill two birds with one stone....kids get a game machine and I get a Blu-Ray player for my home theatre. The kids still play the PS2 on a normal tv, but they do also get to play the PS3 on a 110" screen!

1) Own a 2700sq foot home.
2) I have 3 kids
3) I have many responsibilities
4) I have a home theatre with a 110" screen/720p projector.

What I think people are forgetting are people like me. I have kids who like to playstation games. I also have a lot of disposable income. I also have a home theatre, but I also didn't want to pick a high-def DVD winner at this time. Along comes the PS3 and I can kill two birds with one stone....kids get a game machine and I get a Blu-Ray player for my home theatre. The kids still play the PS2 on a normal tv, but they do also get to play the PS3 on a 110" screen!

1) Own a 2700sq foot home.
2) I have 3 kids
3) I have many responsibilities
4) I have a home theatre with a 110" screen/720p projector.
Will you consider adoption...

of a family of 3? ;)

Will you consider adoption...

of a family of 3? ;)

hahaha....NO :p

Week ended February 25, 2007*
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.30 (67.4/32.6)
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 94.25 (51.5/48.5)

* Includes First Alert data.

Top 5 BD
1 The Prestige 100.00
2. The Departed 73.67
3. Babel 36.31
4. Open Season 9.42
5. Superman Returns 9.33

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Babel 61.41
3. Batman Begins 21.69
4. Lucky Number Slevin 14.59
5. Troy 11.84

Week ended February 25, 2007*
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.30 (67.4/32.6)
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 94.25 (51.5/48.5)

* Includes First Alert data.
It looks like these numbers are really starting to stabilize.

March should be a bump for BD though.

It looks like these numbers are really starting to stabilize.

As far as YTD is concerned, yes. But since inception is different.

The week-to-week percentage variations were:


01/28 1.6
02/04 1.4
02/11 1.2
02/18 1.0
02/25 1.2

So until nataraj works his math magic here, I'd say volume has increased noticeably this week.

So until nataraj works his math magic here, I'd say volume has increased noticeably this week.

That's what it looks like to me.

But I also like how the YTD is over 2:1. That's a nice running average for the year.

That's what it looks like to me.

But I also like how the YTD is over 2:1. That's a nice running average for the year.

Until the March new releases come in, it looks like BD has captured about 67% of the market, and have been holding that pretty steady. Volume may be up a little, (which is good in and of itself), but it went up in roughly the same proportions as has been tradition.


At some point, SI numbers become irrelevant. Who really cares if HD DVD out-sold BD in the first few months? What matters the most is what have you done for me lately, and on that score BD has managed to increase it's market share to a pretty consistent 67%.

At some point, SI numbers become irrelevant. Who really cares if HD DVD out-sold BD in the first few months? What matters the most is what have you done for me lately, and on that score BD has managed to increase it's market share to a pretty consistent 67%.
Yes. If that spread can sustain until Christmas, that would be something.

Now if it widens...

Yes. If that spread can sustain until Christmas, that would be something.

Now if it widens...

Well, remember that that 2:1 ratio does NOT take into account all the sales of upcoming Blu-ray exclusive blockbusters like PoTC, Casino Royale, Cars, etc, so that margin is almost surely going to grow as the year passes.

I think it could very well be 4:1 by the end of this year (ie. 80% Blu-ray to 20% hd-dvd).... :eek:

At some point, SI numbers become irrelevant.

They've long become irrelevant. It's not a question of if the SI numbers will reach 65/35 but when. It's been the case since mid-Jan. Unless HD DVD can turn the weekly numbers back in their favour the SI or YTD will continue to increase for BD until all three plateaux at the same percentage.

The week-to-week percentage variations were:

01/28 1.6
02/04 1.4
02/11 1.2
02/18 1.0
02/25 1.2

The rate of change in SI numbers is slowing and that's to be expected. As the SI numbers get closer to parity with the weekly numbers the rate of change slows. By the time we get to the summer we may see 0.1% swings in SI maybe even 0.1% every other week.

I think it could very well be 4:1 by the end of this year (ie. 80% Blu-ray to 20% hd-dvd).... :eek:

I would think we'd need a lot more information about other BD releases in the second half before I'd agree to that.

The rumoured list from Bill Hunt (who is only attacked for rumours not beneficial to HD DVD) should generate a good number of HD DVD sales. Those would have to be countered and significantly topped by BD releases before a 4:1 could be reached.

I think we can safely assume the following big summer titles will be released on BD in the fall:

Sony: Spiderman 3
Disney: Pirates of the Carribean 3
Fox: Fantastic 4 - Rise of the Silver Surfer

Gary

What I think people are forgetting are people like me. I have kids who like to playstation games. I also have a lot of disposable income. I also have a home theatre, but I also didn't want to pick a high-def DVD winner at this time. Along comes the PS3 and I can kill two birds with one stone....kids get a game machine and I get a Blu-Ray player for my home theatre. The kids still play the PS2 on a normal tv, but they do also get to play the PS3 on a 110" screen!

1) Own a 2700sq foot home.
2) I have 3 kids
3) I have many responsibilities
4) I have a home theatre with a 110" screen/720p projector.

Exactly. I don't quite get the argument that people who buy PS3 must be young and with low income. I would assume people buying the most expensive machine must be the oldest people with the highest income of people who buy consoles. BTW, I also own the PS2, the Wii and preordered the PS3 in Europe. I'm 34 and have a pretty decent income, with wife and 2 kids. Most of my friends are also getting the PS3. And BTW I actually don't know anyone that own an Xbox 360 or who owns a HD DVD player, they're all buying PS3.

But add those 3 together and you can pretty much ALSO predict what's going to happen. HD-DVD is a big train wreck that's going on in slow-mo :p

I don't know if this is a serious analysis or fan boy comment.

Assuming it is serious, you can look elsewhere for my comments on why this kind of logic is wrong. Essentially you are assuming HD DVD is unable or unwilling to do anything to change course. Considering the huge amount of money spent by these comapnies on the formats you would have to be very nieve to assume that ...

Think about it. Total BD movie sales is something like 2M a year. And for HD DVD it is 1M. The difference is only something like 25M $ per year. And we know HD DVD group has some 150M $ to promote the format ...

You do the math ;)

Week ended February 25, 2007*
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.30 (67.4/32.6)
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 94.25 (51.5/48.5)

* Includes First Alert data.
Chart attached to go with data...

b2b

Essentially you are assuming HD DVD is unable or unwilling to do anything to change course. Considering the huge amount of money spent by these comapnies on the formats you would have to be very nieve to assume that

I disagree...unless HD-DVD somehow convinces Fox, Disney, and the other Blu-ray exclusive studios to commit to HD-DVD then the result is inevitable - the only question is how long it would take. This does not guarantee that Blu-ray would win against SD, although the factors are certainly already in play for that to happen (strong studio support for change, HDTV uptake).

HD-DVD had to convince these studios that people were buying more into HD-DVD than Blu-ray. I don't believe they have accomplished this, especially considering that the sales gap between them is now 2:1 and growing quickly.

I , especially considering that the sales gap between them is now 2:1 and growing quickly.


Actually, it looks to me like it's 2:1 and staying the same. It may grow some this month because of the content advantage, (which, from a studio's point of view is irrelevent because they can control who has the content advantage). But otherwise, the evidence right now is that BD has about 67% of the software market, and it's not changing much either way.

While 67% is better than 50%, it's not overwhelming. In fact, if it stays at 67% throughout March, I think that may be a bad sign for BD. In a month where you have a huge content advantage, you should be able to sell well more than 67% of the content, even without a PS3 trojan horse.

The rate of change in SI numbers is slowing and that's to be expected.

It was slowing - but it has accelerated for the latest data point.

Using the assumed Jan 1, 2007 numbers we get that for that week BD sold 74,076 units and HD DVD sold 35,505.

I more surprised that 'The Prestige' sold more copies than 'The Departed' than anything.

On a side note, I have The Prestige from Netflix, and I'll be picking up a copy for myself tomorrow, so add 1 more to that tally ;)

While 67% is better than 50%, it's not overwhelming. In fact, if it stays at 67% throughout March, I think that may be a bad sign for BD. In a month where you have a huge content advantage, you should be able to sell well more than 67% of the content, even without a PS3 trojan horse.

A 2:1 advantage in sales for Blu-ray is not overwhelming after Hd-dvd was leading solidly just a couple or so months back? :rolleyes:

How does Blu-ray currently have the content advantage? if you look at the titles released it's about the same for both at this time.

The content of advantage of blu-ray will start to show as the spring and summer progresses, and then we'll start seeing a widening of that ratio.

Worldwide, the gap will be even wider as it looks like HD is barely penetrating Europe (unlike the USA, where HD-DVD became entrenched early on with higher sales numbers), and the PS3 looks to boost Blu-ray at a much higher level in that region. Japan is the same.

PS. when i say "growing quickly", i meant within several months, i obviously did not mean the ratio was somehow changing day by day, or even weekly.

This war is about to be over whether people want to admit or not. Japan is Blu-ray, Australia is Blu-ray, Europe will be Blu-ray in a matter of weeks. You think there's going to be one high def format dominating the rest of the world and 2 formats here? Not gonna happen.

Actually, it looks to me like it's 2:1 and staying the same. It may grow some this month because of the content advantage, (which, from a studio's point of view is irrelevent because they can control who has the content advantage). But otherwise, the evidence right now is that BD has about 67% of the software market, and it's not changing much either way.

While 67% is better than 50%, it's not overwhelming. In fact, if it stays at 67% throughout March, I think that may be a bad sign for BD. In a month where you have a huge content advantage, you should be able to sell well more than 67% of the content, even without a PS3 trojan horse.
Well you're WAY off, skogan. Using Grubert's figures, BD is at 67.6 for the week. :p

I more surprised that 'The Prestige' sold more copies than 'The Departed' than anything.


The Prestige is a way better movie than The Departed....IMO of course.

A 2:1 advantage in sales for Blu-ray is not overwhelming after Hd-dvd was leading solidly just a couple or so months back? :rolleyes:

Not really. There weren't very many disc or players sold until 4 months ago. Now, after the introduction of the PS3, Blu-ray has 67% of the market.

Of course, there's no standard definition for "overwhelming." I suppose it's possilbe that you as an individual are overwhelmed by having 67% of the market. But I consider it a good lead, but all things considered, not overwhelming.


How does Blu-ray currently have the content advantage? if you look at the titles released it's about the same for both at this time.

The content of advantage of blu-ray will start to show as the spring and summer progresses, and then we'll start seeing a widening of that ratio.

If you reread what I posted, I think you will see that I said "if it stays at 67% throughout March" it may be a bad sign because it wouldn't have grown any when it has a content advantage. Maybe you can see through that I am talking about the blockbuster movies coming out soon on BD while HD DVD doesn't have new releases for the next month.


PS. when i say "growing quickly", i meant within several months, i obviously did not mean the ratio was somehow changing day by day, or even weekly.

I'm not sure what you meant, but what you said was:
the sales gap between them is now 2:1 and growing quickly.

In fact, the sales gap between the two has maintained a 2:1 ratio for the past month, and has not changed significantly. The coming months may change that some, but that remains to be seen. What looks like has happened so far is that the PS3 advantage got the BD to a steady 67% market share and holding. Content differential, and time, may change that.

I disagree...unless HD-DVD somehow convinces Fox, Disney, and the other Blu-ray exclusive studios to commit to HD-DVD then the result is inevitable ...

No. Just as they came around from DIVX to DVD - you can force them to change if you build enough market presence.

Don't just look at market share or percentage. The current $ difference between HD & BD movie sales is so pitiable - it is not going to fornce the war one way or the other.

Don't confuse the war with the little battles.

Right. The pressure is not going to be on the BDA companies, though. Unfortunately, HD DVD has had a steadily diminishing position and look to be in the shoes of DIVX...

Right. The pressure is not going to be on the BDA companies, though. Unfortunately, HD DVD has had a steadily diminishing position and look to be in the shoes of DIVX...

I'm not sure the DIVX comparison is valid. DIVX was basically DOA while HD DVD has had some initial level of consumer interest. At the end of the day (or year) the distinction may be moot though.

Let's see 67-17=50. 17/67=0.25 So something says BD sales can't drop 25%?

Wayne - your math is flawed.

67% is 2 sales for every 1 (67 ~= 2 x 33%).

In order for it to be 1 for every 1 (50%), the BD sales would have to halve (assuming HD DVD sales are constant).

Think about it. Total BD movie sales is something like 2M a year. And for HD DVD it is 1M. The difference is only something like 25M $ per year. And we know HD DVD group has some 150M $ to promote the format ...

You do the math ;)

They could use that money to buy lots of HD DVDs and make the numbers better :D

Seriously though, they are going to have to do something to stem the tide. The key will be to get enough installed that they cannot be ignored. So far, they are not there yet (IMHO)...

No. Just as they came around from DIVX to DVD - you can force them to change if you build enough market presence.


Too bad for your argument that Blu-ray titles are selling more than 2:1 right now against HD-DVD :rolleyes:

With less expensive players, new titles, no insults to CE (Europa), HD sales could increase by 25%, and there it is! BD sales can decrease by 25% because of coupon expiry, player cost, insults to Europe, lots of PS3 games and minority support by cognoscenti (AVS forum)

Not to mention feature-ful or "un" players

Just as they came around from DIVX to DVD - you can force them to change if you build enough market presence.


Too bad for your argument that Blu-ray titles are selling more than 2:1 right now against HD-DVD

Indeed nataraj's statement applies equally to Universal going BD. And it would seem that at the current rate, this will apply sooner than the argument that HD DVD can build a market to get HD DVDs from BD exclusive studios.

I guess it will come down to how they spend their $150M....

With less expensive players, new titles, no insults to CE (Europa), HD sales could increase by 25%, and there it is! BD sales can decrease by 25% because of coupon expiry, player cost, insults to Europe, lots of PS3 games and minority support by cognoscenti (AVS forum)

Another math lesson for Wayne.

25% drop for BD and 25% gain for HD DVD would be a ratio of 1.5:1.25...

So you need more than that to break even.

A 25% decrease in BD sales and a 50% increase in HD DVD sales would do it.

:) I'll go for a 50% decrease in BD and a 50% increase in HD

:) I'll go for a 50% decrease in BD and a 50% increase in HD

That'll do it for sure! :D

Toshiba has some new deal where you get 5 HD DVDs for buying a player. Pretty sweet deal. I predict that by early June, they'll offer the entire HD DVD library for buying a player. :cool:

Week ended February 25, 2007*
YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 48.30 (67.4/32.6)
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 94.25 (51.5/48.5)

* Includes First Alert data.

There is a big jump in BD sales. Since this is First Alert, we need to wait for final numbers to be sure.

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/3345/nielsenhidefpr4.gif (http://imageshack.us)

By just looking at the shape of the curve in the 24hour stock number for amazon (as reported in thedvdwars.com - this is the most interesting numbers if we can figure out that the stock goes up only once a day, but decreases over longer periods (?) [my guess] ), the steepness of stock depletion over the last week (daily at around 9pm) should give a good idea that there is a rapid rise in the # of disks sold in week ending Mar2nd that was higher than last weeks.

76138/wk works out to about 4M disks/yr btw, in case anyone cares about these numbers. BD sold < 400K+ in all of 2006. This is a 10X increase for 2007 at this rate --- which is large growth by any measure.

There is a big jump in BD sales. Since this is First Alert, we need to wait for final numbers to be sure.

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/3345/nielsenhidefpr4.gif (http://imageshack.us)

That is a HUMONGUOUS JUMP in Blu-ray sales (from 59k to 71k sold on the week of feb 25)!!!!!

Another way to look at it is that it took only 42 days in 2007 for BD to sell more disks than all of 2006. Alternately, you can project that it will take 75 days in 2007 to sell twice as many disks as all of 2006.

Another way to look at it is that it took only 42 days in 2007 for BD to sell more disks than all of 2006. Alternately, you can project that it will take 75 days in 2007 to sell twice as many disks as all of 2006.

i think as of this point, BD has already sold more than twice what it did in 2006 (400k in 2007+ versus 350k)

And another point (if these figures are correct ... btw, nice job nataraj)

- HD DVD increased their weekly sales by about 5,000 discs;

- Blu-ray increased their weekly sales by about 16,000 discs.

That's a ~ 3:1 on the derivative.

Keep in mind BD had 2 major releases the week of 2/25 (Bable and The Prestige), while HD only had Bable. The Prestige alone accounts for the bump in BD. Granted one of the advantages BD has going for it is more new releases, but you can't extrapolate 1 week's sales data out 52 weeks and expect to be even close. The number of March releases will give BD a big advantage for the next few weeks, but late March/April should be more even.

The number of March releases will give BD a big advantage for the next few weeks, but late March/April should be more even.

Not if new users keep coming into the market....these new users will CONTINUE to buy older releases so long as they are blockbusters. Since these are both new markets, we should expect a continued influx of new users who will continue to drive sales of older discs.

So, sales of Blu-ray in April/March should continue to accelerate even with lower number of releases.

Not if new users keep coming into the market....these new users will CONTINUE to buy older releases so long as they are blockbusters. Since these are both new markets, we should expect a continued influx of new users who will continue to drive sales of older discs.

So, sales of Blu-ray in April/March should continue to accelerate even with lower number of releases.

But the same is also true for HD-DVD, maybe even to a greater extent. With far fewer new releases HD-DVD is continuing to grow as well. Look at the top 5 for HD last week. As always Batman Begins is near the top. Not bad for a title that shipped on Oct. 10 2006. Older titles are selling a higher percentage on HD than BD:

Top 5 BD
1 The Prestige 100.00
2. The Departed 73.67
3. Babel 36.31
4. Open Season 9.42
5. Superman Returns 9.33

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Babel 61.41
3. Batman Begins 21.69
4. Lucky Number Slevin 14.59
5. Troy 11.84

But the same is also true for HD-DVD, maybe even to a greater extent. With far fewer new releases HD-DVD is continuing to grow as well. Look at the top 5 for HD last week. As always Batman Begins is near the top. Not bad for a title that shipped on Oct. 10 2006. Older titles are selling a higher percentage on HD than BD:

Top 5 BD
1 The Prestige 100.00
2. The Departed 73.67
3. Babel 36.31
4. Open Season 9.42
5. Superman Returns 9.33

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Babel 61.41
3. Batman Begins 21.69
4. Lucky Number Slevin 14.59
5. Troy 11.84

This is not correct.

Prestige (Blu-ray) 100 does not equal The Departed (HD DVD) 100.

Each list shows sales of titles relative to the most successful in each format. These lists cannot be merged with the numbers shown.

that isn't what the poster was trying to accomplish. he was comparing older with more recent releases within each format's offerings.

does anyone know of a similar source for sales figures/ratios for the european market? the ps3 is about to launch and it would be interesting to see how things currently stand, and how the console effects the waters it's dropped into.

I disagree...unless HD-DVD somehow convinces Fox, Disney, and the other Blu-ray exclusive studios to commit to HD-DVD then the result is inevitable - the only question is how long it would take. This does not guarantee that Blu-ray would win against SD, although the factors are certainly already in play for that to happen (strong studio support for change, HDTV uptake).

HD-DVD had to convince these studios that people were buying more into HD-DVD than Blu-ray. I don't believe they have accomplished this, especially considering that the sales gap between them is now 2:1 and growing quickly.

That they switch is not necessary for now IMO. As long as they can have the format grow to a level where it will survive long enough for the market to have 3 or 4 studios releasing in THD and 2 or 3 manufacturers coming out with full featured dual players, that in itself would constitute a victory if you consider that most of the industry sided with BR. Of course, that would imply that HD-DVD studios actually get off their arse and release a decent number of titles...

This is not correct.

Prestige (Blu-ray) 100 does not equal The Departed (HD DVD) 100.

Each list shows sales of titles relative to the most successful in each format. These lists cannot be merged with the numbers shown.

If you re-read my post, I stated that older titles are selling at a higher PERCENTAGE on HD than BD. The sales data I listed is exactly that, a percentage of disk sales with the highest disk being 100%. Last I checked 21% is higher than 9%. The BD numbers indicate that a very high percentage of sales were for 3 new releases. HD shows that older titles are selling at a higher percentage than on BD and that is what I said. Thank you Issac for correctly interpreting my post.

does anyone know of a similar source for sales figures/ratios for the european market? the ps3 is about to launch and it would be interesting to see how things currently stand, and how the console effects the waters it's dropped into.


Nothing clear. HD-DVD sales a bit better, but sale numbers are not interesting yet. PS3 seems to have a good start, but we have to wait until release.

Most popular HD Player is still xbox 360`s addon. So the PS3 may have a good chance to make the deal.

Greetz

Nothing clear. HD-DVD sales a bit better, but sale numbers are not interesting yet. PS3 seems to have a good start, but we have to wait until release.

HD-DVD outsold Blu-ray about 4:1 last year in England in the weeks leading up to the holidays, but the total numbers are ridiculously small compared to HD penetration here in the USA....

http://chinese.engadgethd.com/2007/02/24/hd-dvd-outsold-blu-ray-4-to-1-last-year-in-england/
8,200 HD DVD movies sold to Blu-ray's 1,834

So, I think Blu-ray will basically crush HD-dvd in these areas once the PS3 starts rolling.

But the same is also true for HD-DVD, maybe even to a greater extent. With far fewer new releases HD-DVD is continuing to grow as well.


You HD-DVD guys are SO blind, or is it just "delusional" ;)

the total number of releases for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray is about equal at this point in time, so that 2:1 sales advantage is not because Blu-ray somehow has more titles available.

Blu-ray surely has more future releases (and bigger blockbusters) in the next few months though.

8,200 HD DVD movies sold to Blu-ray's 1,834



Total of 10.000 HD Discs in over 3 Month means nothing! Not for the war, only for HD, it means it doenst exist! If the PS3 cant change that it will be hard for HD in europe.

GReetz

You HD-DVD guys are SO blind, or is it just "delusional" ;)

the total number of releases for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray is about equal at this point in time, so that 2:1 sales advantage is not because Blu-ray somehow has more titles available.

Blu-ray surely has more future releases (and bigger blockbusters) in the next few months though.

What, you can't stand the fact that your argument for 'accelerated sales' of BD is also true for HD-DVD? The sales numbers clearly point to new HD-DVD owners buying older titles and leading to growth in HD-DVD sales. I said absolutely nothing about HD-DVD or BD having more available titles. Who's delusional now?

You HD-DVD guys are SO blind, or is it just "delusional" ;)

I think you are slowly crossing the line between argument and personal attack. Probably crave for some mods attention, do you ?

I don't know if this is a serious analysis or fan boy comment.

Assuming it is serious, you can look elsewhere for my comments on why this kind of logic is wrong. Essentially you are assuming HD DVD is unable or unwilling to do anything to change course. Considering the huge amount of money spent by these comapnies on the formats you would have to be very nieve to assume that ...

Think about it. Total BD movie sales is something like 2M a year. And for HD DVD it is 1M. The difference is only something like 25M $ per year. And we know HD DVD group has some 150M $ to promote the format ...

You do the math ;)


I think (IMHO of course) that your analysis may be fatally flawed. If Toshiba actually spends $150 million to promote a format that only sells 1 million discs, disc sales that make studios revenue and them only royalties, then they are more likely to pull the plug than pursue it more.

I think every studio, Sony, and Toshiba were all expecting much greater HD penetration much faster than this. The studios aren't that hurt by this because they can keep selling DVD's. Sony is in for a penny, in for a pound with the PS3 so they can't stop at this point - they will probably put a few games on BD whether they need it or not just 'cause. The other CE's foresaw this scneario the best, I think, so they will drip out slow and follow whoever wins.

But Toshiba cut most of the profit out of their players. The profit they are making from their players probably is enough to eventually cover their R&D costs for the format. But spending $150 million on advertising to get $1 million in royalty checks (WAG based on $1 per movie - probably high), doesn't seem like a very good business proposition.

At some point Toshiba Corporate is going to give the word to pull the plug. How many years will they allow $150 Million to be spent to increase the sales of movies for the studios?


What I don't get is why the disc sales are so low, for both formats. The standalone player sales are approximately what DVD was at the same time, but the movie adoption rate was quite a bit higher. Why buy the player if you aren't going to buy any movies. Of course, back then we didn't have any place to rent, let alone Netflix, but still.

Sony is in for a penny, in for a pound with the PS3 so they can't stop at this point - they will probably put a few games on BD whether they need it or not just 'cause. All games are on BD.

What I don't get is why the disc sales are so low, for both formats. The standalone player sales are approximately what DVD was at the same time, but the movie adoption rate was quite a bit higher. Why buy the player if you aren't going to buy any movies. Of course, back then we didn't have any place to rent, let alone Netflix, but still.
No "but still" about it. I strongly believe that you just answered your own question. Especially since we have a format war, not only are people ABLE to rent, they are compelled to do so in lieu of getting stuck with a lot of obsolete software.

I admit that competition has been, mostly a good thing, up until now and almost always is, but this is a very negative side effect IMHO.

All games are on BD.
That's what I've always understood.

That's what I've always understood.
Correct. All PS3-specific discs are Blu-ray discs.

Not all of the PS3 games are on disc - a few are downloadables, such as flOw and Tekken 5: Dark Revolution.

No "but still" about it. I strongly believe that you just answered your own question. Especially since we have a format war, not only are people ABLE to rent, they are compelled to do so in lieu of getting stuck with a lot of obsolete software.

I admit that competition has been, mostly a good thing, up until now and almost always is, but this is a very negative side effect IMHO.



Has anyone asked Netflix how HiDef rentals are doing? If those numbers are pitiful as well then one has to ask, why have people bought these players if they aren't going to watch movies on them?

Has anyone asked Netflix how HiDef rentals are doing? If those numbers are pitiful as well then one has to ask, why have people bought these players if they aren't going to watch movies on them?
Looks like someone just found themselves a project. ;) :D

I, myself have not asked. No good reason why not to, at least give it a shot. They do have an email address, after all.

I firmly believe that rental sales are strong. They pretty much have to be. All the signs point to it. The demand is obvious when you take a gander at queues. I doubt the would not want to meet that demand. I just think they can't buy the discs fast enough to keep up with the ever-expanding player sales. When Netflix was born, DVD players were already well installed. In contrast, HD optical, player sales are growing rather rapidly.

Give 'em a jingle, t. :)


EDIT: I just emailed Blockbuster.

UPDATE 3/4/07: Talked to a guy at Netflix. Couldn't give me much, other than the fact that they are adding titles all the time, so they're not halting support or anything.

He did give me the Los Gatos, corporate number, so I'll try them tomorrow.


UPDATE 3/4/07: Just got a return email from Blockbuster...

Thanks for contacting BLOCKBUSTER Online Customer Care.

I understand your concern, however, I am not entitled to divulge such information. You can check out our website to view our available BD and HD DVDs.

www.blockbuster.com


Worry no more,

Germiniano
Customer Care Associate
BLOCKBUSTER Online
Here was my reply...


Thanks,

Can you point me in the direction of someone who can?

If not, are there any press releases, or other public notifications that you could point me toward?

Thanks again

Looks like someone just found themselves a project. ;) :D

I, myself have not asked. No good reason why not to, at least give it a shot. They do have an email address, after all.

I firmly believe that rental sales are strong. They pretty much have to be. All the signs point to it. The demand is obvious when you take a gander at queues. I doubt the would not want to meet that demand. I just think they can't buy the discs fast enough to keep up with the ever-expanding player sales. When Netflix was born, DVD players were already well installed. In contrast, HD optical, player sales are growing rather rapidly.

Untrue, DVD launched here in the US in 1997, Netflix started up in 98, the installed base of DVD players were around one million at that time.

Untrue, DVD launched here in the US in 1997, Netflix started up in 98, the installed base of DVD players were around one million at that time.
O.K., but Netlfix did not take off right away. As a new company, they had time to grow and build up their inventory as demand grew. Not only that, but they had time to build their inventory before launch so they would be ready.

Now they are huge and would've needed to buy everything that the studios could pump out. Either way, I believe they did not anticipate the demand for HD optical.

True. Netflix was able to get started because DVD wasn't well established yet. The big rental chains weren't fully on board at the time and Netflix was able to take advantage of that.

I sent a PM to Grubert. It looks like the new issue is available. It's just not listed on the Home Media homepage:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom030407/

Notice the interesting ad on page 9. Warner makes it clear why they release in both formats. They appeal to non-neutral studios to get their slice.
Who do you feel that ad is aimed at?

Who do you feel that ad is aimed at?I think it is aimed at companies not selling products on both sides. Whether that's studios or hardware manufacturers. It could also be appealing to retailers to carry both product lines. The line "Being in both formats is a huge opportunity for you" makes me think it's aimed at studios/manufacturers more than retailers, though. Considering that Warner itself is "in both formats"; whereas I wouldn't consider Best Buy "in both formats."

Or maybe next month Warner will be advertising for TotalHD...now that everyone knows they should be neutral, let us sell you this bomb... ;)

Who do you feel that ad is aimed at?
Who else could it be aimed at. It's either content producers or retailers who are holding off stocking either disc format.

The "Billion dollars" is more of Warner's pie-in-the-sky projections for sales like they had for last year. That would take around 30 million discs to be sold in the next 10 months. Not going to happen.

b2b

For those who don't want to click on the link to the ad, it's a full pager that says the following:

Who can win with two formats?
You can.


[Pictures of a bunch of HD DVD and Blu-ray disc]

In 2007, consumers will spend over a billion dollars buying movies on HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc. Being in both fomats is a huge opportunity for you - a billion dollar opportunity - that you don't want to miss. Make sure you get your share of both.

Who do you feel that ad is aimed at?

The ad is aimed at retailers. The bit at the bottom makes that perfectly clear.

If people see a secondary message aimed at single-format studios then they've got better eyes than me. The studios know what the situation is. They don't need a retailer ad from WB to educate them.

But companies do stuff like this to create preasure or a buzz.

My theory is that the ad is aimed at the studios, to get them to adopt their hybrid disc. Warner not only has the IP in the hybrid disc, they also have significant IP in HD DVD. If hybrid disc become the norm, Warner will get big royalties even on disc that are being played in PS3's.

Warner is in a significantly better IP position if this format war is resolved by the use of hybrid disc than any other outcome.

I think it is aimed at companies not selling products on both sides. Whether that's studios or hardware manufacturers. It could also be appealing to retailers to carry both product lines. The line "Being in both formats is a huge opportunity for you" makes me think it's aimed at studios/manufacturers more than retailers, though. Considering that Warner itself is "in both formats"; whereas I wouldn't consider Best Buy "in both formats."
Yeah, that's pretty much what I was thinking.

Seems like it's aimed at Filmmakers. Like, "Sign with Warner and when your picture goes to disc, it will have twice the consumer base (on the HD optical portion, not DVD) as any of the neutral studios."

I've been wondering about this for awhile. If I were a filmmaker, all else being equal, I would certainly consider this when studio shopping.

Lot of guys chiming in while I was typing.

It's just speculation, obviously, but I disagree that this is aimed at retailers.

Retailers, with limited shelf space, are going to stock movies that sell. Period. Either format, whatever.

Of course a good flick from Warner is apt to sell twice as many discs. I don't think the retailers need to be told this. They'll buy what they can and restock when they run out.

That said, it seems strange to create such an add for such a small audience like filmmakers.

Somebody call 'em up and ask 'em.

I've been wondering about this for awhile. If I were a filmmaker, all else being equal, I would certainly consider this when studio shopping.I hadn't thought of that. Makes a lot of sense! Why would you purposely limit high definition home video sales by working with exclusive studios.

Here's the new numbers, for those curious.
http://img89.imageshack.us/img89/186/bdvshddvd20070225bs3.png

In 2007, consumers will spend over a billion dollars buying movies on HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc. Being in both fomats is a huge opportunity for you - a billion dollar opportunity - that you don't want to miss. Make sure you get your share of both.

Let us see.

$25 per disc, so $1B => 40M movies. That is some 3 M movies a month or some 750K a week.

Current sales 115K a week. Even if they sell a third of 3M movies during holidays, it is still a big stretch.

Why would you purposely limit high definition home video sales by working with exclusive studios.Because as long as the format war persists, combined sales of both formats are going to substantially less than total sales of a single format would be without a format war. That's why Fox and Disney have no interest in neutrality; the sooner this war ends, the more discs everyone sells.

Because as long as the format war persists, combined sales of both formats are going to substantially less than total sales of a single format would be without a format war. That's why Fox and Disney have no interest in neutrality; the sooner this war ends, the more discs everyone sells.
Tru dat, T. I feel ya'.

However, this particular portion of the discussion was about Filmmakers.

Because as long as the format war persists, combined sales of both formats are going to substantially less than total sales of a single format would be without a format war. That's why Fox and Disney have no interest in neutrality; the sooner this war ends, the more discs everyone sells.

I guess we will then have to wait until Sony cannot subsidize this thing any more for the BDA. So, if anyone is interested in ending the format war soon they should go out buy a PS3 (preferably the 20Gb model) for only watching movies and then rent all their BD movies from Netflix :)

Let us see.

$25 per disc, so $1B => 40M movies. That is some 3 M movies a month or some 750K a week.

Current sales 115K a week. Even if they sell a third of 3M movies during holidays, it is still a big stretch.



Is it at all possible that the numbers everyone has been obsessing about lately are actually wrong? I know this would be funny, but something has to explain why the average early adopter of both formats has bought hardly any movies. I'm still not quite ready to pin it all on "everyone is renting" and yes I will try to get in touch with the people I know at Netflix - just haven't talked to them in awhile.

thom

I'm still not quite ready to pin it all on "everyone is renting" and yes I will try to get in touch with the people I know at Netflix - just haven't talked to them in awhile.

thom
1. Why not? When I peeked in on the renting vs. purchasing poll, here awhile back, there appeared to be quite a lot of renting going on. AND THIS IS AVS!!! Who is going to make more HD optical purchases, on average, than AVS members?

2. I look forward to hearing what your Netflix people have to say.

I guess we will then have to wait until Sony cannot subsidize this thing any more for the BDA. So, if anyone is interested in ending the format war soon they should go out buy a PS3 (preferably the 20Gb model) for only watching movies and then rent all their BD movies from Netflix :)

you are MEAN !!!!



love it !! :D

Another way to look at it is that it took only 42 days in 2007 for BD to sell more disks than all of 2006. Alternately, you can project that it will take 75 days in 2007 to sell twice as many disks as all of 2006.

yupe SOny knows this and is doing damage control by announcing a $599 player. Sony knows that they cant have their PS3s to be used to watch movies ... :D :D :D

I think (IMHO of course) that your analysis may be fatally flawed. If Toshiba actually spends $150 million to promote a format that only sells 1 million discs, disc sales that make studios revenue and them only royalties, then they are more likely to pull the plug than pursue it more.

I think every studio, Sony, and Toshiba were all expecting much greater HD penetration much faster than this. The studios aren't that hurt by this because they can keep selling DVD's. Sony is in for a penny, in for a pound with the PS3 so they can't stop at this point - they will probably put a few games on BD whether they need it or not just 'cause. The other CE's foresaw this scneario the best, I think, so they will drip out slow and follow whoever wins.

But Toshiba cut most of the profit out of their players. The profit they are making from their players probably is enough to eventually cover their R&D costs for the format. But spending $150 million on advertising to get $1 million in royalty checks (WAG based on $1 per movie - probably high), doesn't seem like a very good business proposition.

At some point Toshiba Corporate is going to give the word to pull the plug. How many years will they allow $150 Million to be spent to increase the sales of movies for the studios?
the key word, Toshiba cut profit.... SOny is subsidizing BD is ALMOST every front !!!! :D :D

xboi, just curious but do you plan to every update your signature? Last I checked Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2 to 1 in weekly sales and has surpassed it in total disc sales as well. Now matter how you look at it that signature is not correct.

I think (IMHO of course) that your analysis may be fatally flawed. If Toshiba actually spends $150 million to promote a format that only sells 1 million discs, disc sales that make studios revenue and them only royalties, then they are more likely to pull the plug than pursue it more.

I think every studio, Sony, and Toshiba were all expecting much greater HD penetration much faster than this. The studios aren't that hurt by this because they can keep selling DVD's. Sony is in for a penny, in for a pound with the PS3 so they can't stop at this point - they will probably put a few games on BD whether they need it or not just 'cause. The other CE's foresaw this scneario the best, I think, so they will drip out slow and follow whoever wins.

But Toshiba cut most of the profit out of their players. The profit they are making from their players probably is enough to eventually cover their R&D costs for the format. But spending $150 million on advertising to get $1 million in royalty checks (WAG based on $1 per movie - probably high), doesn't seem like a very good business proposition.

At some point Toshiba Corporate is going to give the word to pull the plug. How many years will they allow $150 Million to be spent to increase the sales of movies for the studios?


What I don't get is why the disc sales are so low, for both formats. The standalone player sales are approximately what DVD was at the same time, but the movie adoption rate was quite a bit higher. Why buy the player if you aren't going to buy any movies. Of course, back then we didn't have any place to rent, let alone Netflix, but still.

Toshiba alone is not fiting the bill for the 150mil I'm sure its divided by all the HD DVD backers.

xboi, just curious but do you plan to every update your signature? Last I checked Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD 2 to 1 in weekly sales and has surpassed it in total disc sales as well. Now matter how you look at it that signature is not correct.

damn i am just amazed by how much some people hate selective data. ;)

Toshiba alone is not fiting the bill for the 150mil I'm sure its divided by all the HD DVD backers.And who would those backers be exactly?

damn i am just amazed by how much some people hate selective data. ;)

Yet still Videoscan data HD DVD (55%) ahead of BD(45%).

This is your current claim stated in present terms. No problem with anyone making a claim but it is contradicted by current statistics. The last published figures by Nielson VideoScan put Blu-ray ahead of HD DVD by 51.48% to 48.52% (SI figures for week of 25th February).

The last time Nielson agreed with you was on 21st January (SI figures: HD DVD = 54.85, Blu-ray = 45.15). So, it's not a case of people hating selective data. it's a case of you being wrong.

I sent a PM to Grubert. It looks like the new issue is available. It's just not listed on the Home Media homepage:



We've been discussing this new issue since Friday. That's where I got the sales information and b2b those nifty captures. ;)

Notice the interesting ad on page 9. Warner makes it clear why they release in both formats. They appeal to non-neutral studios to get their slice.

They had the same ad on two weeks ago. It was discussed when it was first presented (CEDIA or CES, I don't remember anymore). The overall conclusion was that it was addressed to retailers.

And who would those backers be exactly?

The other HD DVD members..... :cool:

We've been discussing this new issue since Friday. That's where I got the sales information and b2b those nifty captures. ;)



They had the same ad on two weeks ago. It was discussed when it was first presented (CEDIA or CES, I don't remember anymore). The overall conclusion was that it was addressed to retailers.

Did people speculate on how Warner could achieve their claim of $1 Billion sales for HD disc this year?

I think it's improbable but it can be done. However, it would require an average month-on-month growth rate of over 20% (based on average MSRP of $35). That would result in sales of 28 million units!

Maybe they figure if all studios were netural, the abdotion rate would be greater. I know I would buy all the moves I could afford. Maybe they can see sales we can't.

I took a stab over the weekend to generate some code inside an Excel spreadsheet to do numeric projections against the Neilsen/VideoScan data. Using the same assumption nataraj used of 64:100 Blu-ray to 500,000 HD SI sales on 1/1, here are the results:

http://www.endrop.com/album/photos/wxgtfoiyzmy2h0nly2wy.jpg (http://www.endrop.com/viewer.php?file=wxgtfoiyzmy2h0nly2wy.jpg)

I've attached a copy of the spreadsheet (zipped) for those that want to follow along.

The code behind the button is a macro that does number projection by applying increasing numbers of sales each week until the projected SI figures match what is being reported by VideoScan to within 1/100th of a percent. You can adjust the numbers in either the gray or yellow background cells (reserved for Neilsen reporting numbers and assumed SI disc sales respectively), then click CALCULATE to see the numbers change.

Warning for those with slower computers: The code is very brute force, and may take some time to run. It takes about 15 seconds to run on my 3.0 HT Pentium 4, but YMMV.

There's also room to add more Neilsen data as it comes in. Just add the dates and the Nielsen ratios (normalized to 100 is fine, though you can use the percentages as well, the code doesn't care as long as the ratios are right).

EDIT: It occurs to me that most people will have the default security settings in Excel set to High. You'll need to set your Excel security temporarily to LOW to make this work with the button. Tools > Macro > Security > Low. Change it back once you're done.

New issue of Home Media Magazine officially out:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom030407/

Initial post updated.

New issue of Home Media Magazine officially out:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom030407/

Initial post updated.

That is one of the worst-functioning websites I have ever seen...everything is in SLOW flash. I never got past the cover.

That is one of the worst-functioning websites I have ever seen...everything is in SLOW flash. I never got past the cover.
Works perfect for me. Almost instantaneous... and that's with my old Pentium M already under a full load.

Could it be your connection?