asj,

3. The HD-DVD market has collapsed because of (a) no new good releases; (b) news reports all over the media saying that Blu-ray has won, which means people are less likely to buy Hd-DVD.

I dont understand this. If one already owns an HD DVD player, why not buy more movies. The movies are going to play just fine. Are the BD police going to come and take it away if HD DVD stops?

asj,



I dont understand this. If one already owns an HD DVD player, why not buy more movies. The movies are going to play just fine. Are the BD police going to come and take it away if HD DVD stops?

first, let me say, I hope those calculated numbers are WRONG.

second, i myself find it hard to believe only 5k title units moved for HD-dvd...as i said, i'm leaning towards the explanation that amazon.com, the leading e-tailer is not included in the number. Most savvy buyers probably buy from amazon.com

third, are there any hard numbers for hd-dvd players and add-ons sold recently that did NOT come from toshiba?

fourth, we have had anecdotal evidence that some brick and mortar shops are removing Hd discs. perhaps this downturn is the result? (Then again, I thought circuit city had a big promo for hd-dvd recently)

asj,

fourth, we have had anecdotal evidence that some brick and mortar shops are removing Hd discs. perhaps this downturn is the result? (Then again, I thought circuit city had a big promo for hd-dvd recently)

I dont believe the anecdotal reports on either side, nor do I think it represents a trend. People talk about stores not having them, etc, and yet, I can walk into my local CC and there are two big stands, prominently displayed, one for BD and one for HD. The store has a nice big BD setup, and a smaller, but out in the open HD Display. My local BB has two HD displays, one an expensive theather setup with couch, etc. and one BD display on an endcap. The BB has two adjacent racks, roughly the same size, one for BD and one for HD.

So, I dont think these reports amount to much. I really dont.

third, are there any hard numbers for hd-dvd players and add-ons sold recently that did NOT come from toshiba?

There was a thread around here lately that said that standalone player sales were roughly equal. I doubt those numbers came from Toshiba

5000 players a week sounds very high. Didn't Toshiba come out and say they had sold 85,000 G1 players, or something like that? That was over the course of 9 months - or 2,500 players a week. This was, of course, prior to Blu-ray leading, so who knows what kind of weekly hardware sales they are putting up.Actually, 5,000 players a week is very, very low considering that Toshiba projected 2.2 million units (players, pc drives, and add-ons) sold IIRC through the end of 2007.

If the numbers are correct and this slump is due to a week with no new HD releases, then I would expect HD DVD sales to jump right back up in a couple weeks.

My personal musings-

- How many people chose/will choose Blu-ray because of the three weeks HD DVD did not have a release (including the previously HD DVD-only.) How many are waiting for the lower-priced players which were announced.

-What percentage of owners own both formats. And what effect do those owners have on the nielsen numbers and videoscan percentages.

-Is the Blu-ray movie drop due to Sony selling half as many PS3s? If it is, this could provide an idea of how many BDs new PS3 owners are buying along with their new systems.

-What's Craig Kornblau thinking now? And how is Ken Graffeo gonna spin these numbers? There's your 5:1, Ken. Okay, so it's not exactly 5 to 1 but it's close.

-What happened to FOX selling 70,000 discs per week all by itself?

-Last week's numbers are bad for both formats. No amount of turd polishing will ever make either number shine.

rusty,

What happened to FOX selling 70,000 discs per week all by itself

Well, they have delayed a lot of their releases due to piracy concerns. It is an open question when they will be released.

You're quick! :)


Not quicker than me on HighDef Digest Forum, the exact same time :)

asj,



I dont believe the anecdotal reports on either side, nor do I think it represents a trend. People talk about stores not having them, etc, and yet, I can walk into my local CC and there are two big stands, prominently displayed, one for BD and one for HD. The store has a nice big BD setup, and a smaller, but out in the open HD Display. My local BB has two HD displays, one an expensive theather setup with couch, etc. and one BD display on an endcap. The BB has two adjacent racks, roughly the same size, one for BD and one for HD.

So, I dont think these reports amount to much. I really dont ...

I found it ironic how you disparage anecdotal reports in one breath and then try to disprove them with YOUR OWN anecdotal evidence.

A 50% drop would already be enormous cause for concern. This sort of cataclysmic drop defies belief.I agree. Just not really plausible. As far as having no new releases, we can look at the previous weeks to see if that might cause an 80% drop for HD DVD. What we can see is that when "Babel" came out it only sold about 61% of "The Departed", which had been out from the previous week. Then the next week there were multiple new releases for both formats and none of the HD DVD ones even got to 14% of the sales of "The Departed" for that week according to Nielsen. So, while I would expect some drop for the last week as "The Departed" was out there longer, a drop to 1/5th just doesn't make any sense. It would be one thing if those top 5 percentages supported a drop of that magnitude because of no new releases, but I don't think they do.

As far as 5k HD DVD players, I could see that. It wouldn't surprise me if Toshiba sold less players than that for the week, although combined with the XBOX360 add-on sales I would expect something higher than 5k. But lower than 10k. One set of numbers indicated that the add-on sold around 20k in January, I'm betting it accounted for more than half of HD DVD player sales (just like I think it did for 2006) and I think there is a good chance add-on sales were lower for this week than they averaged in January.

--Darin

syhd,

I was making the point that one can always find an anecdote to support any position that one wants. That is why anecdotes arent useful. If that didnt come through, then I apologize.

5000 players a week sounds very high. Didn't Toshiba come out and say they had sold 85,000 G1 players, or something like that?

no, 60k 2006 G1 & G2

When did the G2 Tosh come out?

I will start by saying I hope it is not a trend

now here are some points

1) can it be that one company jumped off from VS?

2) don't forget, new releases (new players) means something to buy. HD DVD has been dry for some time. High AR early on and no new content catches up fast.

3) maybe it is part of the anti BD attitude of some (there is the buy Amazon thread in the HD DVD forum, if they decided to postpone some titles until then, the low might be felt now

4) there were many PO HD DVD fan boys. Bitching about t6he 50% sale on BDs, but Amazon also had a 50% sale on some HD DVDs

5) (to George) yes as long as your player plays you can watch your disks. But what happens if the player brakes and there are no new players? Maybe some are still buying movies that are HD DVD only but decided there is more value to buy BD on dual releases or BD.

When did the G2 Tosh come out?

Dec

Amazon had 50% of One title, Worlds Fastest Indian.

Amazon had 50% of One title, Worlds Fastest Indian.

my understanding was that it was more then one (but more limited then BD)

my understanding was that it was more then one (but more limited then BD)

There were two magnolia titles on sale.

-What's Craig Kornblau thinking now? And how is Ken Graffeo gonna spin these numbers? There's your 5:1, Ken. Okay, so it's not exactly 5 to 1 but it's close.

The next week for HD-DVD is going to be even worse...that 4:1 sales ratio in favor of blu-ray is going to jump to more than 6:1 when the Casino Royale numbers are added, possibly much worse if hd-dvd title unit sales stay at 5k per week.

So, what's Graffeo's excuse now?

Looks like the Amazon #s are NOT included in the Nielson/Videoscan data.

Case in point, the BD "sales" at Amazon had the effect of sucking out unit sales volume at the retailers in their sample group. This also affected the sales of HD DVD to a greater degree (given the lack of new or "on sale" titles).

I could be wrong..... I think I am not ;)

The next week for HD-DVD is going to be even worse...that 4:1 sales ratio in favor of blu-ray is going to jump to more than 6:1 when the Casino Royale numbers are added, possibly much worse if hd-dvd title unit sales stay at 5k per week.

So, what's Graffeo's excuse now?

Lets not count the chicks before they hatch. We do not know for sure these numbers were a mistake or not. I also contend that the Amazon numbers were not included in the survey. I remember the Blu-ray inventory went down from 22,000 to something like 11,000 in the first week of the Amazon sale. Clearly these numbers were not represented.

Lets not count the chicks before they hatch. We do not know for sure these numbers were a mistake or not. I also contend that the Amazon numbers were not included in the survey. I remember the Blu-ray inventory went down from 22,000 to something like 11,000 in the first week of the Amazon sale. Clearly these numbers were not represented.

yeah, I'm suspicious of the numbers too...i mean, 5k HD-DVDs - total?!???

but, whatever, the Casino Royale release will skew those sales ratios strongly in blu-ray's favor whether or not that 4:1 ratio is correct.

I also contend that the Amazon numbers were not included in the survey.My guess is that they were given that "Black Hawk Down" seemingly came out of nowhere to take the number 5 spot for the week, not that far behind "Stranger than Fiction" and about 1/4th of the numbers for "The Departed". Given that it looks like it has been about the best selling of the for sale titles on Amazon, it makes sense that it would move into the 5th spot below 4 titles that weren't for sale on there. If we could see a top 10 list we could probably tell easier, but even the Rentrak top 10 would seem to indicate that Amazon was included, given some of the titles that ended up in their top 10.

--Darin

Is there any new information here?

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2104850,00.asp

My guess is that they were given that "Black Hawk Down" seemingly came out of nowhere to take the number 5 spot for the week, not that far behind "Stranger than Fiction" and about 1/4th of the numbers for "The Departed". Given that it looks like it has been about the best selling of the for sale titles on Amazon, it makes sense that it would move into the 5th spot below 4 titles that weren't for sale on there. If we could see a top 10 list we could probably tell easier, but even the Rentrak top 10 would seem to indicate that Amazon was included, given some of the titles that ended up in their top 10.

--Darin

probably not for rentrak given this -

Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

or this, from a news article:

Rentrak’s Retail Essentials business, which tracks DVD sales through 10,000-plus storefronts, is continuing to fine-tune its data collection, Rosenbaum said.

A comparison of the Top 10 blu-rays for 3/4 and 3/11 also seems to show some same titles, inclusing BHD, X-men, but it does seem skewed to the xmen, koh, ice age, which displaced titles not on sale like crank, stranger than fiction, etc...so, the million dollar question is:

Are these rankings from the same people who gave the percentage numbers, that is, from videoscan/nielsen?...i've googled rentrak like crazy and have yet to see any mention that they track online (web) sales...from all indication, they only track brick and mortar stores (as well as video on demand, a new service)

TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 3/4/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 The Departed (WB, $34.99)
2 Babel (PAR, $39.99)
3 The Prestige (BV, $34.99)
4 Superman Returns (WB, $34.99)
5 Stranger Than Fiction (SONY, $38.96)
6 The Fifth Element (SONY, $28.95)
7 TERMINATOR 2 (LG, $29.99)
8 Black Hawk Down (SONY, $28.95)
9 Crank (LG, $39.99)
10 X-MEN: The Last Stand (FOX, $39.98)


Top Blu-Ray Title For Week Ended 3/11/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 The Departed (WB, $34.99)
2 The Prestige (BV, $34.99)
3 X-Men: The Last Stand (FOX, $39.98)
4 Black Hawk Down (SONY, $28.95)
5 Open Season (SONY, $34.99)
6 The Fifth Element (SONY, $28.95)
7 Kingdom Of Heaven (FOX, $39.98)
8 Underworld Evolution (SONY, $38.95)
9 Ice Age: Meltdown (FOX, $39.98)
10 House Of Flying Daggers (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Is there any new information here?

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2104850,00.asp

Yes! It does corrolate fairly well with iceimage's spreadsheet fairly well, a few weeks are off and clearly PCmag/neilsen have rounded up in a few places

Every war has a tipping point where many different events coalesce into a final push.

-Warner announced it would move to put all movies on TotalHD - thereby removing any notion that they would have exclusives to HD-DVD.

-Universal announced that soon all movies would be hybrids, which means all their releases would be higher cost than average (a mandatory feature is only a plus to those who want it - see PS3).

-The PS3 has casued an increase in BD sales which has caused an increase in stories about BD/PS3/BD sales, which has allowed consumer awareness of where trends are going, and that awareness has affected the trends and then around again.



When you couple those events with fewer HD-DVD releases for HD-DVD owners to get excited about and draw them into stores to buy catalog titles, an amazon sale to push BD, more new(er) releases for BD announced in the coming months (Children of Men and The Good Shepard are big movies but they aren't going to sell like Pirates, Cars, or even Chicken Little - CoM and TGS are more renters) - it is not dificult to see why HD-DVD is going to decline, no matter how passionate about it people are here.

And speaking of passion, nothing kills it like new info. Between comments made by insiders and press releases hinting at the same, it would appear that Microsoft has noticed how well downloads, specifically HD Downloads (albeit HD Lite at the moment) are doing. If HD-DVD's biggest backer (or 2nd) decides the world is ready for HD downloads much earlier than even they were planning, why should they continue to help HD-DVD?


And did anyone else hear how they want to use all the white noise over TV for this specific purpose?

http://www.infoworld.com/article/06/05/16/78377_HNspectrummsdell_1.html?WI-FI

FCC is screwing around because
1) broadcasters are their most powerful customer
2) broadcasters will want to provide wireless or be paid not to
3) FCC does not want licensed wireless, as that would set up competition to licensed cell phone ops, who are their second most powerful customer
4) cell phone ops may buy it to keep out competition, but they can do that through the FCC without spending.

Anyway, these numbers cast doubt on the whole process

Any new numbers from Videoscan/Nielson?

I'm curious to see if those Amazon sales made a difference.

Perhaps a picture will help illustrate the point for those who think these numbers are plausible:

http://75.126.103.40/images/eva/eva104/nielsenmar11.jpg

Sort of the same shape as the DJI. Are all you guys day traders? :D

Here's what my calculation spreadsheet indicates, based on the numbers given:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/nwzymny5zkzfzfqhm2ng.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=nwzymny5zkzfzfqhm2ng.jpg)

These numbers HAVE to be wrong. It's not a matter of the Amazon sale; from what I can tell the problem is that the shift in SI is too small for the posted difference in YTD.

Yeah, I think those numbers can't possibly be right. Still, there were no new movies from both formats that week.

But it's obvious to me that Videoscan/Nielson does not include Amazon.com sales because they sold 5,000 copies the first day of that sale and the average sales rank has stayed high for the top 25 Blu-ray movies. Sure it tailed off, but I'd say they sold around 10,000-15,000 movies by March 11.

Sort of the same shape as the DJI. Are all you guys day traders? :D

Except it's only down about 5% not 50%. :D

Yeah, I think those numbers can't possibly be right. Still, there were no new movies from both formats that week.

But it's obvious to me that Videoscan/Nielson does not include Amazon.com sales because they sold 5,000 copies the first day of that sale and the average sales rank has stayed high for the top 25 Blu-ray movies. Sure it tailed off, but I'd say they sold around 10,000-15,000 movies by March 11.First you say the numbers can't possibly be right and then you use them to say that Videoscan/Nielsen doesn't include Amazon.com. I doubt that Blu-ray had close to a 50% dropoff for the week, but since that was calculated with the same methods that an 80% dropoff for HD DVD was calculated, neither one should be used to prove anything. Hopefully next weeks numbers will give us a better idea if we don't get some clarification before then.

--Darin

Is there any new information here?

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1895,2104850,00.aspPage 2 there has some interesting stuff. Especially the percentages they give off the best selling title through March 4th that come out to:

1. Batman Begins (HD DVD) 100
2. The Departed (Blu-ray) 99
3. Superman Returns (Blu-ray) 89
4. Superman Returns (HD DVD) 85
5. Underworld: Evolution (Blu-ray) 64

7. The Departed (HD DVD) 61

?. Mission Impossible 3 (HD DVD) 52
?. Mission Impossible 3 (Blu-ray) 50

At first I would have expected those numbers to be just for 2007, but from looking at the relative rankings and the numbers for the different titles back in the 2nd post in this thread (where "The Departed" on HD DVD outsold "Batman Begins" by almost 5:1 even in the 2nd week it was included in and almost 4:1 in the 3rd week it was included in, with the 1st week for it not shown) I think they are more likely to be since inception.

--Darin

First you say the numbers can't possibly be right and then you use them to say that Videoscan/Nielsen doesn't include Amazon.com. I doubt that Blu-ray had close to a 50% dropoff for the week, but since that was calculated with the same methods that an 80% dropoff for HD DVD was calculated, neither one should be used to prove anything. Hopefully next weeks numbers will give us a better idea if we don't get some clarification before then.

--Darin

I just don't see how it could include the Amazon.com sales if there was only 25k for the whole week. Amazon.com alone had at least 10-15k in sales that week. They sold 5,000 discs on the first day of that sale and the numbers did not drop off too sharply.

I just don't see how it could include the Amazon.com sales if there was only 25k for the whole week.But you just said:
Yeah, I think those numbers can't possibly be right.It isn't logical to take the position that the 25k can't possibly be right and then jump to some conclusion based on it being right. Basically, if the 5k for HD DVD isn't right then the 25k for Blu-ray is very unlikely to be right and we shouldn't jump to conclusions based on them.

--Darin

These numbers have a problem. 5K is too less for HD DVD. If anything of the two formats, HD DVD is the more steady one (for eg. when BD fell from 60K to 49K, HD only went down by 3 K).

BTW, my MoBo got fried a couple of days back. So I can't run the numbers yet, but I expect them to be practically the same as what icemage has got.

Every war has a tipping point where many different events coalesce into a final push.

-Warner announced it would move to put all movies on TotalHD - thereby removing any notion that they would have exclusives to HD-DVD.

-Universal announced that soon all movies would be hybrids, which means all their releases would be higher cost than average (a mandatory feature is only a plus to those who want it - see PS3).

-The PS3 has casued an increase in BD sales which has caused an increase in stories about BD/PS3/BD sales, which has allowed consumer awareness of where trends are going, and that awareness has affected the trends and then around again.


Universal is going to release new movies in combo discs but library titles in HD DVD only. The publicity about PS3 sales is how bad they are--losing 50% each month since its introduction.

I just don't see how it could include the Amazon.com sales if there was only 25k for the whole week. Amazon.com alone had at least 10-15k in sales that week. They sold 5,000 discs on the first day of that sale and the numbers did not drop off too sharply.Maybe it's a correction related to the Amazon rankings drop that happened around February 16th?

And I agree with you that they are wrong today as they were last fall, though the faces may have changed. This format war does not end until the HD DVD PRG or the BDA give up, or one format reaches an insurmountable supermajority of market penetration. You can't blame the proponents of both sides for buying into the propaganda too much; that's what propaganda is all about.

The hope is that we can rise above the spin and find some truth somewhere in between. Just reading stuff I missed while dealing with client issues in the real world.

I just wanted to comment here that I appreciate your analysis here with the excel spreadsheet and I appreciate your comments here.

This format war does not end until the HD DVD PRG or the BDA give up, or one format reaches an insurmountable supermajority of market penetration.

You can't blame the proponents of both sides for buying into the propaganda too much; that's what propaganda is all about. I absolutely agree.

Icemage, excellent posts and insights on this thread. Thanks :)

Bandwidth only solves the download problem, not the storage problem. Grandma doesn't want to maintain a series of networked computers with RAID arrays to assure that movies she paid for aren't lost. At best, downloads compete only with the rental industry.

This might be Microsoft's fantasy, but it's not going to happen. I'll take movies on optical disks, thank you. Rob I absolutely agree with you on this issue.

Shoving a disc in a player is a simple action. Downloading even with huge bandwidth is still complex. And don't underestimate the urge to physically possess a movie. Movies as in DVDs are seen by consumers to be tangible single possessable collectible items. more than a newscast or TV show.

Streaming of downloading works for small consumable or perishable or replaceable things, but movies are different in consumers minds. Movies are meant to be watched over and over again. Its nice to have a physical token for a movie in the form of a disc and a holding box with artwork that signifies ownership

(I wanted to type that at least once this year :) )


HD optical discs are now established in consumer's minds. Bandwidth limitations in much of low population density USA make video downloads inpracticable for many years. People like physically collecting a movie ownership token, versus a file.

Yeah, I think those numbers can't possibly be right. Still, there were no new movies from both formats that week.

But it's obvious to me that Videoscan/Nielson does not include Amazon.com sales because they sold 5,000 copies the first day of that sale and the average sales rank has stayed high for the top 25 Blu-ray movies. Sure it tailed off, but I'd say they sold around 10,000-15,000 movies by March 11. Maybe the carrier pigeon with the Amazon data dropped dead mid flight? :D

......or maybe its confirmation that Amazon's numbers are not in the figures? Or they are out of time sync with other numbers? Or its a one time glitch?

I have some information that HD A2 sales having been increasing week by week since early Febuary, so I really doubt the 5000 total sales units figure.

I have some information that HD A2 sales having been increasing week by week since early Febuary, so I really doubt the 5000 total sales units figure.Do you have info about what those figures started at or ended at (I'm not asking you to share them)? It is easy to say that they've been increasing when they weren't very big to start with. I know in the past you disagreed with numbers like this, but if I was betting the over-under I would bet that the HD-A2 sold less than 40k total for January and February combined.

--Darin

Do you have info about what those figures started at or ended at (I'm not asking you to share them)? It is easy to say that they've been increasing when they weren't very big to start with. I know in the past you disagreed with numbers like this, but if I was betting the over-under I would bet that the HD-A2 sold less than 40k total for January and February combined.

--Darin I will try to see what I can post here.

My understanding is that sales since the first week of Feburary have steadily increased each week every week for at least the last 6 weeks ongoing.

Toshiba second generation HD DVD sales are well past 60,000 units at this date.

March alone may easily exceed 40,000 units.

I am extremely confident that HD A2 and HD XA2 sales are signifcantly more than 40,000 units for January and Febuary. Confirmation of that can be easily made just from extrapoloating from some Circuit City regional numbers and from Value Electronics.

I am still waiting for HD DVD disc sales to show a higher increase on the Amazon stats. They have been less than I have expected based on what I know and can confidently surmise on HD DVD second generation player sales. The average 2 disc buy for new owners should lead soon to better VS numbers.

I'm kinda feeling beat up over crying wolf though on any HD DVD sales spikes, but I expect HD DVD sales to accelerate soon. ;)

Toshiba second generation HD DVD sales are well past 60,000 units at this date.The head of Toshiba of America indicated that they were over 30k for 2006, so if he was telling the truth, then well past 60k could still be less than 40k for January and February combined.
I am extremely confident that HD A2 and HD XA2 sales are signifcantly more than 40,000 units for January and Febuary.If they were over 30k for 2006, then whoever you are talking to should be indicating over 70k total to be "signifcantly more than 40,000 units for January and Febuary". If they use the number 60k as a total (even way more than 60k), then that would support what I said, when combined with what the head guy said.
Confirmation of that can be easily made just from extrapoloating from some Circuit City regional numbers and from Value Electronics.Seems like you might have to do some interesting extrapolations for VE numbers, as they could be doing a good percentage of the sales at this point.

--Darin

I classify his info temporarily into the "BS" column.

I posted above that at first glance his numbers are plausible, and they are. There's nothing inherently wrong with his ratios compared to VideoScan (they're actually very close).

However, I fed his numbers into my calculation spreadsheet and I got these values:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/5w3wnjtkmmmgneejjywk.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=5w3wnjtkmmmgneejjywk.jpg)

His values are not internally consistent. I don't know that he's totally wrong; it's possible he's either misinterpreted the data, reported it incorrectly, or what, but none of my projections based off of the information he posted himself are consistent with his own postings.

Unless I misunderstand his posts, according to his information, I should have 72,666 Blu-ray and 32,675 HD DVD disc sales for week of 2/25/07. As you can see above, I don't come close enough for horseshoes, and with the numbers he provided, I should at least be within a few hundred of his provided numbers.

My apologies to the forum; this "bzcat" guy does not appear to be trustworthy (deliberately or otherwise), and I should have run the numbers before posting them to verify.

EDIT: Should note that my "Actual YTD" number above is mislabelled; it's worded off the assumption that the numbers in yellow (the starting point) were for 1/1/07. My calculations should be essentially correct, however, since I make no assumptions about relative or absolute dates within the calculations themselves.IMHO no apology is needed. I'd rather you'd post info like this with a caveat on its sourcing and then we can dissect it, than not post it at all.

The tool you created allows us to check the internal consistency and allows us to play with various assumption scenarios.

Well done sir. :)

I am sure there is a lot of debate within BBY as well. A few years ago, I used to be better connected to info at BB than now :)

However, they are the primary force behind 'one format' is issue #1. I am sure this is being pushed by Sony, especially when they saw that folks like Samsung may be thinking dual format hardware.

BB itself is under pressure to continue showing growth and hi-def right now is low risk, especially if they are reciprocated by Sony in some way. BB is under financial pressure now and they are on record as rather having one format. They have been among the most outspoken retailers in that regard.

That being said, no one makes decisions in the CE based on 1st qtr numbers especially with two major late winter week long snow storms. Its inside baseball thinking, but retail numbers sometimes take a weather hit and the US east coast and midwest have gotten pounded twice this year.

Its a risky decision to pull a product line or category, and it is just too early for most decision makers to take that risk. Once stocked, it takes a fair amount of effort to pull a category and it alienates consumers. No reason to take that risk now just to free up a little bit of shelf space.

If BB would do it it would be a major move and would look stupid when HD DVD sales would increase. Too much risk, too little reward to even seriously consider it now. It would be irrational based on 1st qtr numbers.

Its either pure FUD, which I think is actually unlikely, or more likely speculation based on conversations that are hearing on side of the internal debate or more likely filtered by one of the participants.

These numbers have a problem. 5K is too less for HD DVD. If anything of the two formats, HD DVD is the more steady one (for eg. when BD fell from 60K to 49K, HD only went down by 3 K).

BTW, my MoBo got fried a couple of days back. So I can't run the numbers yet, but I expect them to be practically the same as what icemage has got.

Finally. If these numbers are true, HiDef DVD is dead !

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/7465/nielsenhidefpp9.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I am hoping last weeks numbers aren't true and expecting some clarification or update. That's a bad sign regardless of which format you choose.

Finally. If these numbers are true, HiDef DVD is dead !

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/7465/nielsenhidefpp9.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Also, if these numbers are true, then Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD ~4+:1 ... the press will have a field day with that.

I think those numbers are incorrect.

I am hoping last weeks numbers aren't true and expecting some clarification or update. That's a bad sign regardless of which format you choose.

I think there were two things affecting the volume in the survey. First, there were no new releases for that week in either format. Second, I don't think they accounted for the Amazon numbers. If that the case, then the numbers make sense ...at least on the Blu-ray side. As of yet, I have no explanation for HD DVD only selling 5604 copies for that week.

I'm kinda feeling beat up over crying wolf though on any HD DVD sales spikes, but I expect HD DVD sales to accelerate soon. ;)

I think we should see a definite spike week of march 27th, but it won't trample BR's numbers either. However, if there is a steady stream of HD DVD releases going forward, we might very well see HD DVD numbers putting a dent in the ratio. HD DVD is not going for the win, IMO, but co-existence.

Aren't you projecting sales figures based on the ratios and some known past quantity (sorry, not willing to look through 90+ pages to try and find out)?

If that is the case, couldn't adding or dropping a couple of retailers with slightly different numbers skew the ratios enough to make sales look way off? Would they even bother to report an adjustment to previous data if the numbers didn't change much? After all, if they were providing this information to clients who wanted to know actual sales volumes, they would provide sales volumes, but this is just a ratio. Projecting sales volumes from a previously known number and 3 digit sales ratios is entertaining, but I'd think it is quite prone to error.

Provided, of course, that that is how you are obtaining the numbers.

Aren't you projecting sales figures based on the ratios and some known past quantity (sorry, not willing to look through 90+ pages to try and find out)?

If that is the case, couldn't adding or dropping a couple of retailers with slightly different numbers skew the ratios enough to make sales look way off? Would they even bother to report an adjustment to previous data if the numbers didn't change much? After all, if they were providing this information to clients who wanted to know actual sales volumes, they would provide sales volumes, but this is just a ratio. Projecting sales volumes from a previously known number and 3 digit sales ratios is entertaining, but I'd think it is quite prone to error.

Provided, of course, that that is how you are obtaining the numbers.
That is, in essence, what we are doing. However, I think you underestimate the power of math. :)

With the processes that Nataraj and I are using, the projection is accurate to within 3 significant digits based on the assumed values for 1/1/07, which, given the volumes we are discussing, is close enough for discussion of overall trends.

I doubt either of us would be spending our time tracking the numbers if we didn't feel there was value in doing so, and thus far, the numbers have been very consistent and enlightening.

That is, in essence, what we are doing. However, I think you underestimate the power of math. :)

With the processes that Nataraj and I are using, the projection is accurate to within 3 significant digits based on the assumed values for 1/1/07, which, given the volumes we are discussing, is close enough for discussion of overall trends.

I doubt either of us would be spending our time tracking the numbers if we didn't feel there was value in doing so, and thus far, the numbers have been very consistent and enlightening.

The math is only as strong as the numbers you put into it ;) I think we may have a better idea of what happened after the next set of numbers. But really this could just be an adjustment to the previous numbers or something of that sort.

The math is only as strong as the numbers you put into it ;) I think we may have a better idea of what happened after the next set of numbers. But really this could just be an adjustment to the previous numbers or something of that sort.
I certainly hope you are right. Nielsen needs to fess up soon and explain the discrepancy to their clients (as they did on 1/28 when they acknowledged their mistake regarding HD DVD combos).

If we're wrong and the numbers are accurate, then that means all high def content is going the way of the dodo, and I doubt any of us here wants that to happen.

Do take into account, though, that these numbers do include / are based on their 'first alert' data. The term suggests that these are not the final numbers. If these are temporary estimates before all numbers are in, then it can simply be that numbers came in slower for that week or, worse, that they may have used unusually complete numbers the week before and unusually incomplete numbers this week.
They only care about (or prefer to indicate) the trend, not the perfect numbers from week to week that can be used to interpolate the actual sales numbers. Why would they otherwise not give the sales numbers? ;)

Do take into account, though, that these numbers do include / are based on their 'first alert' data. The term suggests that these are not the final numbers. If these are temporary estimates before all numbers are in, then it can simply be that numbers came in slower for that week or, worse, that they may have used unusually complete numbers the week before and unusually incomplete numbers this week.

They only care about (or prefer to indicate) the trend, not the perfect numbers from week to week that can be used to interpolate the actual sales numbers. Why would they otherwise not give the sales numbers? ;)
I would expect First Alert data to at least be within the boundaries of existing trends, barring anomalous conditions.

We've been tracking the First Alert data for about 3 weeks now and it seems in line with what we've expected (I agree that they're probably off by a bit).

It's possible that this is a correction made to adjust for previous overinflated First Alert numbers. However, IF this is true, then the data from 2/25 and 3/4 are also suspect and need reconfirmation of the finalized numbers.

If that is the case, couldn't adding or dropping a couple of retailers with slightly different numbers skew the ratios enough to make sales look way off?

Actually no. Even though we are looking at ratios, the fact that ratios are based on actual numbers would ensure that.

I don't think any big names would have dropped off - if so we would have seen some press releases. So, if only a small number of retailers drop off, there won't be a big change.

Let us say retailers worth 10% sales dropped off. Then, instead of a 50K figure we would see 45K or for HD 23K instead of 25K.

This assumes that when the retailers drop off, Nielsen does not remove all the previous data gathered from these retailers from their SI and YTD numbers.

BTW, I think the subscribers get actual numbers, not just ratios. But they can't disclose that publicly - so they disclose things like market share or average.

I don't think any big names would have dropped off - if so we would have seen some press releases. So, if only a small number of retailers drop off, there won't be a big change.

Let us say retailers worth 10% sales dropped off. Then, instead of a 50K figure we would see 45K or for HD 23K instead of 25K.

This suggests that Nielsen doesn't extrapolate their data to account for all of North America which seems very unlikely to me.

Doesn't Nielsen project overall sales for NA based on their tracked data?

This suggests that Nielsen doesn't extrapolate their data to account for all of North America which seems very unlikely to me.

Doesn't Nielsen project overall sales for NA based on their tracked data?

No. They don't. NPD does, but not Nielsen.

BTW, we have been playing around with initial assumed numbers. The current numbers are such that the figures they yield come close to reported figures in the media.

I would expect First Alert data to at least be within the boundaries of existing trends, barring anomalous conditions.

We've been tracking the First Alert data for about 3 weeks now and it seems in line with what we've expected (I agree that they're probably off by a bit).

It's possible that this is a correction made to adjust for previous overinflated First Alert numbers. However, IF this is true, then the data from 2/25 and 3/4 are also suspect and need reconfirmation of the finalized numbers.

if there caculations are based on certain retailers selling some % of units, a huge shift to amazon, might cause goofy numbers.

i.e. best buy sales 20% of units, c.c. 20%, amazon 10%... if amazon canabilzed all of those then that drop would happen

if there caculations are based on certain retailers selling some % of units, a huge shift to amazon, might cause goofy numbers.

i.e. best buy sales 20% of units, c.c. 20%, amazon 10%... if amazon canabilzed all of those then that drop would happen

Right. BD numbers can be explained if one assumes Amazon is not counted. How about HD DVD ?

There was a major late winter snowstorm this Thursday - Friday on the US east coast.

Could that have affected any final data tabulations as a lot of major metro offices closed early?

Right. BD numbers can be explained if one assumes Amazon is not counted. How about HD DVD ?

hd-dvd sucks and no one wants it?

j/k.

very good point, theres just something wrong

There was a major late winter snowstorm this Thursday - Friday on the US east coast.

Could that have affected any final data tabulations as a lot of major metro offices closed early?

East coast + Thusday/Friday - I expect that to be no more than 25% of the market. I guess we will have to wait to see the next week's data. If that goes up, we know there was something wrong this week ... otherwise we would know the sales have tanked.

Grubert,

Have you heard anything further on these numbers?

Grubert,

Have you heard anything further on these numbers?

No, today was awfully busy at work. Will do it now.

Okay that was quick. Stephanie Prange (editor-in-chief) and Judith McCourt (associate publisher) have confirmed the ratios are valid, and that sales for both formats were down for the week compared to the previous one.

Okay that was quick. Stephanie Prange (editor-in-chief) and Judith McCourt (associate publisher) have confirmed the ratios are valid, and that sales for both formats were down for the week compared to the previous one.

Wow! That really sucks for both - actually even worse for HD DVD.

Okay that was quick. Stephanie Prange (editor-in-chief) and Judith McCourt (associate publisher) have confirmed the ratios are valid, and that sales for both formats were down for the week compared to the previous one.
Just... wow.

Something is still wrong. If Nielsen is showing HD DVD tanking like this, why are we the only ones to have noticed?

Icemage,

If Nielsen is showing HD DVD tanking like this

I am confused. Sales of BOTH dropped by 25K. So why is it that only HD DVD tanked and not BD.

Okay that was quick. Stephanie Prange (editor-in-chief) and Judith McCourt (associate publisher) have confirmed the ratios are valid, and that sales for both formats were down for the week compared to the previous one.Down doesn't surprise me. But down 80% on the HD DVD side doesn't sound right. Could you check and see if the sales were way down (like way over 50%) and see if they will confirm that? Thanks.

It could be that the current numbers were correct, but that some previous ones were off and so that conclusion of only 5k or so for HD DVD was wrong.

--Darin

Icemage,



I am confused. Sales of BOTH dropped by 25K. So why is it that only HD DVD tanked and not BD.


It all makes sense because the survey does not count the Amazon numbers and plus there were no new releases for both format that week. The Amazon sale had a drastic affect on the B&M numbers.

As with HD DVD tanking so much, I don't have an explanation for that. If I had to guess, there are really only two explanations possible. Its either a erroneous number or maybe HD DVD supporters are finally hedging. With all the news about Blu-ray winning in the press, they are having second thoughts and changing their buying habits.

Okay that was quick. Stephanie Prange (editor-in-chief) and Judith McCourt (associate publisher) have confirmed the ratios are valid, and that sales for both formats were down for the week compared to the previous one.

Can you confirm whether the numbers we have got are in correct range or atleast the weekly ratio is correct ? Thx.

SyHd,

I guess my point didnt come through. If HD tanked because its sales went down 20K units, then BD tanked because its sales went down 25K.

In other words, to say that HD tanked, and BD didnt is being disingenuous.

I am confused. Sales of BOTH dropped by 25K. So why is it that only HD DVD tanked and not BD.If those numbers were right then you could say that BD tanked more than HD DVD by using absolute numbers. However, they would show BD being down 50% and HD DVD down 78%. Depends on how you look at it as if you go by absolute numbers HD DVD sales could go to zero and you could still claim that Blu-ray sales tanked more if the absolute fall was farther.

Those numbers still don't sound right to me and hopefully we can get some more clarification.

--Darin

darin,

darin, what you say is true, but there are two things. First, like I said, it is not honest to say one tanked and the other didnt, which is the implication of his statement. Second, they started from different baselines, so the percentages will of course be different.

If Nielsen is showing HD DVD tanking like this, why are we the only ones to have noticed?

We are the only people who care :p

And since we are comparing:

5604 is 21.7% of the previous week's sales for HD DVD.

24702 is 50% of the previous week's sales for Blu-ray.

In other words, HD DVD lost an additional 30% of sales during the same week. If Blu-ray dropped by 50%, then the past trend indicates that HD DVD too should have dropped by 50% (to maintain the 2:1 sales ratio). We see here that it dropped almost 80%. Clearly, HD DVD is in a much worse situation.

darin, what you say is true, but there are two things. First, like I said, it is not honest to say one tanked and the other didnt, which is the implication of his statement. Second, they started from different baselines, so the percentages will of course be different.
We have a potential explanation for the BD numbers dropping; if Amazon numbers are NOT included in Nielsen calculations, the sale on 3/6 and later will have drawn away a noticeable proportion of sales from the retailers that Nielsen is tracking.

What we don't have is any reasonable explanation for why Nielsen suddenly shows HD DVD sales falling by 80%+, except perhaps SyHD's theory about HD DVD buyers who aren't in the loop getting cold feet and hedging.

josh,

And since we are comparing:

In other words, HD DVD lost an additional 30% of sales during the same week. If Blu-ray dropped by 50%, then the past trend indicates that HD DVD too should have dropped by 50% (to maintain the 2:1 sales ratio).

Except that no one knows about the Amazon numbers. If the sale kept the numbers temporarily high, then BD could also be in trouble now that the sale is over. We shall see.

We see here that it dropped almost 80%. Clearly, HD DVD is in a much worse situation.

Not necessarily. You do know about the concept of a threshold right? It could be that numbers below a threshold are all equivalent.

Icemage,

We have a potential explanation for the BD numbers dropping; if Amazon numbers are NOT included in Nielsen calculations, the sale on 3/6 and later will have drawn away a noticeable proportion of sales from the retailers that Nielsen is tracking.

What we don't have is any reasonable explanation for why Nielsen suddenly shows HD DVD sales falling by 80%+, except perhaps SyHD's theory about HD DVD buyers who aren't in the loop getting cold feet and hedging.

So what about explanations. Based on the data that you have BOTH formats tanked, not just HD DVD like you implied. HD supporters getting cold feet is the only explanation if you are a BD fanboy. Perfectly reasonable explanations are there were no movies that people wanted to buy.


Personally, if these numbers are correct then both formats are in trouble, not just HD DVD.

Except that no one knows about the Amazon numbers. If the sale kept the numbers temporarily high, then BD could also be in trouble now that the sale is over. We shall see.


Based on the stock movements, Amazon should have sold approximately 10,000 BD during the sale.

And since we're talking with stock quantities, Casino Royale started at Amazon with 3666 copies and is right now at 1935 copies left. And - according to the dvdwars stats (http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000MRA5NS), it has been restocked at least once with 326 more copies.

That would mean that, in almost one week, Casino Royale has sold (1731 + 326) 2,057 copies at Amazon, and that doesn't include the presales.

Okay that was quick. Stephanie Prange (editor-in-chief) and Judith McCourt (associate publisher) have confirmed the ratios are valid, and that sales for both formats were down for the week compared to the previous one.

If that is correct then Nielsen have just confirmed they do not include Amazon figures.

In a week when Amazon had almost 20 released Blu-ray titles in their top 100 DVD chart sales actually dropped by 50%?

There is only one sane explanation. Amazon took a large chunk of Blu-ray dollars from the B&M stores.

But then it's still hard to explain the 80% drop for HD DVD. Maybe getting 5 free discs per player negates the effect a new player buyer would normally have - ie: buy a few discs to go with it. It's still really weird - and I want HD DVD to go down the plughole!

Azumi,

My point was is that people dont know if the Amazon numbers are included or not.

That would mean that, in almost one week, Casino Royale has sold (1731 + 326) 2,057 copies at Amazon

And how many SD DVDs of CR do you think Amazon sold?

Like I said above, I think all the numbers for both formats are subthreshold and dont mean much to the studios, as much as people would like to argue otherwise.

Personally, if these numbers are correct then both formats are in trouble, not just HD DVD.
Not true if Amazon numbers are not accounted... In that case only HD-DVD is in trouble. ;)

wet

Not true if Amazon numbers are not accounted... In that case only HD-DVD is in trouble

but we dont know do we, and claiming one has problems while the other doesnt isnt being consistent.

but we dont know do we, and claiming one has problems while the other doesnt isnt being consistent.Are you saying we can't claim one format has problems and the other doesn't? Because we certainly can. Either both numbers are wrong or both numbers are right. If both numbers are wrong, we're back to square one. If both numbers are right and Amazon isn't included, then it's really bad news for HD DVD. However, if you mean that saying one set of numbers has problems and another set doesn't, I'd understand.

wet



but we dont know do we, and claiming one has problems while the other doesnt isnt being consistent.
We don't know either way if the Amazon info is included. Given the popularity of the sale, hypothosizing that it wasn't included would not be reaching. Given that, I'm just being just as consistent as you are. You conveniently (and typically) post the pro HD-DVD / anti BR viewpoint, so I thought I'd point out the other possibility you conveniently left off the table. ;)

And how many SD DVDs of CR do you think Amazon sold?


I don't know, but I'm kind of suggesting to Grubert and Nataraj a feature that neither Thedvdwars nor Hdgamedb currently have. ;)

If they manage to grab in quasi real-time the amount of stock via Web Services, they should be able to track how many copies each title is selling, or the total sales for each format. :)

Granted, this feature wouldn't be able to keep track of presales, the individual sale cancellations and other factors, but it would give us a good perception based on the data that is broadcast through Web Services.

Just... wow.

Something is still wrong. If Nielsen is showing HD DVD tanking like this, why are we the only ones to have noticed?

Because they are waiting for the numbers on Casino Royale, at which point the ratio may actually go to 10:1 for Blu-ray....

The "announcement" by Toshiba today is likely a way to salvage something out of what they know will be a bloodbath when the numbers for Casino Royale come up and HD-DVD is still selling 6000 discs a week and Blu-ray is suddenly selling 50,000 or 60,000 discs that week.

but we dont know do we, and claiming one has problems while the other doesnt isnt being consistent.

While I personally believe these numbers must be wrong, they would be much worse for HD than for BD: a loss of 80% versus a loss of 50%. BD sold nearly as much as HD sold the week before, so if these numbers mean that BD is in trouble, then HD was in trouble already the week before!

(Looking at the absolute losses does not make sense. If they both would have dropped by 26K, then HD would not have sold anything while BD would have sold a not so great 23K. These do sound like quite different degrees of 'being in trouble' ;) )

edit: but again, I don't think these numbers can be right unless Amazon is not in there or there is some other fluke in the collected data

Icemage,



I am confused. Sales of BOTH dropped by 25K. So why is it that only HD DVD tanked and not BD.

Uh, maybe because the absolute numbers of HD-DVD sales are much less? Therefore, the percentage drop of HD-DVD is much worse, which is why the sales ratio for that week is 4:1 in blu-ray's favor, much higher than the 2:1 previous.

When Casino Royale comes into play the next week, we could see a bloodbath of epic proportions if HD-DVD continues to lose sales and goes below 6000 per week. We could see up to a 10:1 ratio in blu-ray's favor....

Jblack,

what I am saying is that AS OF THIS POINT IN TIME (just to make it clear) to say that HD DVD is in trouble (tanked) and BD is fine, when both available numbers dropped by roughly 20K is not logically consistent especially since the absolute numbers are so low.

It may turn out that it is bad news for HD and not for BD, but we dont know that yet, and to imply otherwise is being disingenuous.

IF the numbers are accurate, then right now, there are two possibilities that present themselves:

(A) Amazon figures are included in Nielsen/VideoScan.

If this is true, then both Blu-ray and HD DVD are in a world of trouble in the USA.

(B) Amazon figures are not included in Nielsen/VideoScan.

If this is true, then only HD DVD is in trouble, since the assumption has been that the Amazon sale would draw away Blu-ray sales from many other venues due to the widespread publicity the sale received.

What's common to both of these scenarios?

HD DVD is in trouble. There's no way to get around this if we believe the numbers. I don't care how much you spin it. 5000ish sales is horrible. It means the attach rate is tapped out due to everyone already owning the stuff they really wanted.

---

With that said, I don't think it's time to shovel dirt on HD DVD's grave yet. The numbers could be wrong. Perhaps our First Alert data from previous weeks are wrong. Perhaps some discs weren't included.

We don't know for sure. Let's see what numbers emerge next week. The conditions for HD DVD don't change at all next week: no releases. We'll also see what happens to the Blu-ray numbers (which should shoot way up, considering that Casino Royale's release date should be in next week's data).

If we see HD DVD numbers bounce back into the expected range, then we'll know it was just a statistical blip.

Because they are waiting for the numbers on Casino Royale, at which point the ratio may actually go to 10:1 for Blu-ray....

The "announcement" by Toshiba today is likely a way to salvage something out of what they know will be a bloodbath when the numbers for Casino Royale come up and HD-DVD is still selling 6000 discs a week and Blu-ray is suddenly selling 50,000 or 60,000 discs that week.

Or then again, maybe they have NO IDEA what to make of the numbers :D

Whether or not the amazon numbers were included, HD-DVD seems to be in very BIG trouble if it only managed to sell 5000 discs that week.

HD-DVD seems to be in very BIG trouble if it only managed to sell 5000 discs that week

and BD is a smashing success if it only sold 25K units in a week?

That is the inconsistency that is bothersome.

and BD is a smashing success if it only sold 25K units in a week?

That is the inconsistency that is bothersome.

really? if BD is in trouble, HD-DVD is already dust.

Btw, The sales ratio moved from 2:1 to 4:1 in blu-ray's favor even with no releases for both sides that week....

and, there is still the question of whether that amazon.com sale pulled a lot of sales away from the blu-ray number. HD-DVD has NO excuses at all.

20% of the top 20 in amazon.com were blu-ray titles that week...unless amazon.com is selling very very few DVDs, then we can reasonably assume the online retailer managed to sell a boatload of blu-ray titles (and in fact, it cut the sale short from march 27, to today, probably due to the very strong demand)

my worthless .02

the numbers for both sides are probably wrong.

Hd-dvd sales should be holding constant, while blu-ray should have taken off as a result of the amazon sale & CR.

On the amazon br vs hd-dvd site, it shows what I've mentioned above.

asj,

really? if BD is in trouble, HD-DVD is already dust.

I never said anything of the sort. What I said is that if you think 5k is toast, then saying BD is a success with 25K is being inconsistent.

Btw, The sales ratio moved from 2:1 to 4:1 in blu-ray's favor even with no releases for both sides that week....

we will never see eye to eye on this. You seem to think that BD is a success and has won the war.

I have consistently said that it is way to early to tell because the absolute numbers are so small. You may think it is over, Sony wants it to be over, but given the overall numbers the studios arent going to do a thing, especially based on 1 week. If you think otherwise that is your perogative, but that doesnt make you right.

I never said anything of the sort. What I said is that if you think 5k is toast, then saying BD is a success with 25K is being inconsistent.
25K per week on Nielsen is where HD DVD seems to have been for the majority of the year thus far. If you're going to say 25K is bad, then you're in essence saying that HD DVD has been doing badly all year.

I have consistently said that it is way to early to tell because the absolute numbers are so small. You may think it is over, Sony wants it to be over, but given the overall numbers the studios arent going to do a thing, especially based on 1 week. If you think otherwise that is your perogative, but that doesnt make you right.
Are you trying to convince yourself or others?

I said it above: 5K is horrible. If you believe the Nielsen numbers, there is no way to spin this positively for HD DVD, regardless of what's going on with the Blu-ray side.

---

Open advice? Wait for the end of the week, when we'll hopefully have some new numbers to tinker with and lay some of this speculation to rest.

If that is correct then Nielsen have just confirmed they do not include Amazon figures.

In a week when Amazon had almost 20 released Blu-ray titles in their top 100 DVD chart sales actually dropped by 50%?

There is only one sane explanation. Amazon took a large chunk of Blu-ray dollars from the B&M stores.

But then it's still hard to explain the 80% drop for HD DVD. Maybe getting 5 free discs per player negates the effect a new player buyer would normally have - ie: buy a few discs to go with it. It's still really weird - and I want HD DVD to go down the plughole!
I think you nailed it on all counts, fozz... especially the last statement. :D

I say it looks like a duck.

If Casino Royale, alone can sell ~ 2K discs at Amazon, then it would only take 20 or so other discs to sell a thousand more than normal at Amazon and you've got your Neilsen drop.

I believe the most reasonable conclusion is that Amazon is not counted by Neilsen... which is really unfortunate.

And your 5 free discs/player is a much more reasonable conclusion than is HD DVD has gone down the tubes overnight... also unfortunate. :)

wnorris has particpated quite a bit in this thread and I'm wondering what other people think of some claims he has made in another thread that relate to these sales figures. From:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10071813&&#post10071813

Like I've been saying for awhile now, you guys are all too hung up on what Nielsen is reporting, and you refuse to listen when someone tells you Nielsen only accounts for a very small piece of the pie.

I'll say it again, Nielsen is only capturing about 25-30% of what studios are actually selling (they are low for BD numbers too). So your tracking of 25k discs per week at Nielsen is relating to 100k HD-DVD sales per week and more on good weeks. HD-DVD is selling roughly 500k copies a month in 2007 (lower for February ~425,000, but it was three days shorter too) Now I'm sure you will attempt to use the same old arguements to discredit the info, so go ahead. Feel free to live the delusion.

I don't know the actual hardware numbers sold, but I was estimating around 200-225k, which means HD-DVD is seeing ~2 discs sold per player per month (the number would be closer to 200k for the end of Jan and 225k for the end of Feb.

So to break this hard math down for you, since you asked. If each player sells 2 discs per month on average. After 12 months, 24 discs would have sold for each player, on average. 2 x 12 = 24 annualized attach rate for 2007.

Now how is this "poor" sales?Anybody here find this 500k per month claim for HD DVD credible? That would put Blu-ray over a million per month for this year.

--Darin

If Casino Royale, alone can sell ~ 2K discs at Amazon, then it would only take 20 or so other discs to sell a thousand more than normal at Amazon and you've got your Neilsen drop.I'm still waiting to see the next weeks numbers or hear more from Grubert to verify the huge drop. As far as "Casino Royale", based on how long it was up for preorder and how high its ranking was for a while, I think there could easily have been 4k preorders for it on Amazon (doesn't count those ~2k).

--Darin

As diversion while we are waiting for Godot ... uh new Nielsen numbers, here are a few Buy.com rankings for movies that were released in both formats:
Happy Feet BD 388 / HD 727
Babel BD 727 / HD 153
The Departed BD 22 / HD 65
Superman returns BD 2270 / HD 15301
NiN Live BD 15301 / HD 388

(Note: there are ties.)

With those figures confirmed, I wonder how many press pick-ups there will be indicating that Blu-ray outsold HD DVD ~4:1 last week?

icemage,

25K per week on Nielsen is where HD DVD seems to have been for the majority of the year thus far. If you're going to say 25K is bad, then you're in essence saying that HD DVD has been doing badly all year.

Yes, and I have never denied that. Actually what I have said is that the sales numbers are so low for both formats that any discussion of the format war being over is premature. The numbers and money are so small that the studios are not going to switch sides, especially based on a couple of months of sales.

Are you trying to convince yourself or others?

Neither, as I dont own a player. However, I find the inconsistency in statements bothersome.

I said it above: 5K is horrible. If you believe the Nielsen numbers, there is no way to spin this positively for HD DVD, regardless of what's going on with the Blu-ray side.

5K units, if true, is bad, but so what, the numbers are "bad" for both. Let me put it this way, when iTunes sells more movies than both formats combined, then neither format has anything to crow about.

IF the numbers are accurate, then right now, there are two possibilities that present themselves:

(A) Amazon figures are included in Nielsen/VideoScan.

If this is true, then both Blu-ray and HD DVD are in a world of trouble in the USA.

(B) Amazon figures are not included in Nielsen/VideoScan.

If this is true, then only HD DVD is in trouble, since the assumption has been that the Amazon sale would draw away Blu-ray sales from many other venues due to the widespread publicity the sale received.

What's common to both of these scenarios?

HD DVD is in trouble. There's no way to get around this if we believe the numbers. I don't care how much you spin it. 5000ish sales is horrible. It means the attach rate is tapped out due to everyone already owning the stuff they really wanted.

---

With that said, I don't think it's time to shovel dirt on HD DVD's grave yet. The numbers could be wrong. Perhaps our First Alert data from previous weeks are wrong. Perhaps some discs weren't included.

We don't know for sure. Let's see what numbers emerge next week. The conditions for HD DVD don't change at all next week: no releases. We'll also see what happens to the Blu-ray numbers (which should shoot way up, considering that Casino Royale's release date should be in next week's data).

If we see HD DVD numbers bounce back into the expected range, then we'll know it was just a statistical blip. OR maybe the HD DVD sales data from a major chain didn't get sent because someone got stuck in the snow?

Lots of real world things can happen in data collection from multiple sources.

One week could be anything , two weeks could be a coincidence, three week begins a trend.

wnorris has particpated quite a bit in this thread and I'm wondering what other people think of some claims he has made in another thread that relate to these sales figures. From:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10071813&&#post10071813

Anybody here find this 500k per month claim for HD DVD credible? That would put Blu-ray over a million per month for this year.

--Darin I think the 25K per month, 100K per month Nielson is reporting is way too low.

I do think that 500K per month though for HD DVD is too high at this point.

But I do think its possible that Nielson is only capturing 50% or so of the market at this point. 200,000 HD DVD sales per month may not be absurd. Blu-ray sales could also be much higher.

But a lot of HD DVD player sales at this point is through small retailers like Value Electronics which aren't captured at all by these tracking systems. There's probably 10,000 HD DVD disc sales this year in that one small retailer that are not being tracked.

The numbers of Blu-ray sales for the time that the 7 x $10 off PS3 redemptions is in force seems to be very low for me also. A million PS3's with 7 $10 Blu-ray coupons should generate more initial sales than what we have seen.

I also think at least 100,000 HD DVD players have been sold this year alone. Initial purchases alone of those new owners should generate at least 200,000-300,000 HD DVD disc sales.

I think we get to see how much impact the accumulated mass of HD DVD players do when the Universal releases start rolling next month.

I also think that a total of 200,000 HD DVD standalone players and 100,000 or so Xbox add ons are currently in the field.

OK. We have two formats that are separated by 20K disks. That translates to around 500K or so in revenue. I believe the 20K gap has been pretty consistent throughout the year.

I am not sure how this looks worse for HD DVD v, BD.? As an analyst, I'd say the gap in weekly sales between the formats is holding at 20K units. In the grand scheme of things 20K units is not a big deal at all. Also, were there any new releases on BD? How many? Should you have a drop in sales when you have new releases? Should the gap have been greater given that there were no new releases in HD DVD?

Anyone have a chart with weekly sales gap between the two formats? That will show more clearly than any other metric if BD is pulling away. Remember, studios care about absolute sales differences.

asj,

Your problem is you think you'll be able to spoil it for everyone just because your preferred format is stinking to high heaven right now and being stomped all over the place by Blu-ray. It's a case of pissing on the food so no one else can eat it....

That was uncalled for. First, I have no preferred format. I dont own a player of any type. Second, how am I "pissing on your food" so to speak. Is your faith in the absolute superiority of BD so frail that it cannot stand someone who says something different. Do you have doubts about the correctness of your position? Are you out to establish some sort of BD orthodoxy where only the Right Thinking and Right Speaking are allowed to say anything. Do you wish to establish your own Re-education camp for the BD unbelievers?

Have I accused of you ruining a HD owners enjoyment of their media because of your incessant gloating and proclamations of BD's supeiority. There is such a thing as being a poor winner you know.

If you look at the graph on page 94, your decisive sales lead is a pretty constant 20-25K units a week, that hasnt changed much over time. Given the difference in player numbers, that doesnt seem like a decisive lead. This is not a stomping as you would suggest, nor is it getting bigger. You can believe what you want but again, that doesnt make it true, and saying it over and over and over and over again, wont make it any truer.

I am simply pointing out that things arent as rosy as your prostations would indicate. By your logic, BD is being slaughtered by iTunes - they have sold movies for less than a year, and yet they outsell HD and BD combined.

In the end, me thinks thou protest too much. You know the old saying, Pride cometh before the fall. The HD fanboys spoke too soon, and history does have a tendency to repeat itself.

Your problem is you think you'll be able to spoil it for everyone just because your preferred format is stinking to high heaven right now and being stomped all over the place by Blu-ray. It's a case of pissing on the food so no one else can eat it....

Unfortunately for you, for a format that is LESS THAN ONE YEAR OLD,
yes, blu-ray does have something to crow about...

1. it is selling better than DVD did at the time of its launch.

2. Casino Royale (Blu-ray) broke the Top 10 of Amazon.com (and nearly got to the top 5 at #6) and outsold even the FS SD-DVD version of CR, not to mention the widescreen versions of several mainstream movies. It is still holding at #15 or so 1 week after its release.

3. It is DECISIVELY outselling a format (HD-DVD) that appeared earlier and had a clear lead just a couple months ago, but which now is being outsold by 4:1, even before the release of CR.

4. Blu-ray managed to hold more than 20% (!!!) of the Top 100 of amazon.com and 20% of the Top 20 of Amazon.com a couple weeks back.

let me say again, all THESE is for a format that is less than one year old!

There is no need for this kind of post. get a grip on what is being talked about here.

It could be that the current numbers were correct, but that some previous ones were off and so that conclusion of only 5k or so for HD DVD was wrong.


Can you confirm whether the numbers we have got are in correct range or atleast the weekly ratio is correct ? Thx.

That's the first thing I asked ;) but they couldn't go into any more detail. Probably there is only so much they can say openly. However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease.

we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease. That's pretty darn cryptic.

So both formats sales numbers decreases weren't as bad as we calculated?

Maybe there was a general one time adjustment factor that screwed up our weekly calculation numbers.

First, I have no preferred format.
I couldn't reading past the first sentence because I spit my coffee all over the monitor after reading this. :o

I don't see any point in further analysis of this weeks data until we see next weeks numbers.

Because they are waiting for the numbers on Casino Royale, at which point the ratio may actually go to 10:1 for Blu-ray....

The "announcement" by Toshiba today is likely a way to salvage something out of what they know will be a bloodbath when the numbers for Casino Royale come up and HD-DVD is still selling 6000 discs a week and Blu-ray is suddenly selling 50,000 or 60,000 discs that week.

Rats! I forecast 10:1 for Blu-ray would happen by November. Oh, well. :D

The one thing we can analyze is the sales ratios. We see that our February 11th YTD number and March 11th YTD number are about the same. Between these two points, HD DVD had a spike in sales to gain some ground and then lost it again. So what happened during that 4 week period?

HD DVD had 6 releases while Blu-ray had 21 releases. This would seem to indicate to me that a title released in Blu-ray will, on average, sell more copies than a title on Blu-ray. Until you can show that a title on Blu-ray can sell more than a title on HD DVD consistently, I don't think you will see Universal make any moves.

The irony is that if any Blu-ray studio decides to go neutral, it would make the sales per title worse for all those involved (as more titles are fighting over the same dollar).

03-13-2007 from DVD Empire.

Blu-Ray
Week:....71.43%
Month:...63.04%
Year:.....59.91%

HD-DVD
Week:....28.57%
Month:...36.96%
Year:.....40.09%


02-15-2007 from DVD Empire.

Blu-Ray
Week:....68.77%
Month:...64.84%
Year:.....59.14%

HD-DVD
Week:....31.23%
Month:...35.16%
Year:.....40.86%

DVD Empire info 01/22/2007

Blu-Ray
Week:....59.63%
Month:...56.73%

HD-DVD
Week:....40.37%
Month:...43.27%



March 20, 2007 (http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/index.cfm)

Blu-Ray
Top 20.......1 Title - Rank 16
Top 100.....3 Titles
Top 200.....5 Titles

HD-DVD
Top 20.......0 Titles
Top 100.....1 Title - Rank 93
Top 200.....2 Titles

Until you can show that a title on Blu-ray can sell more than a title on HD DVD consistently, I don't think you will see Universal make any moves.

First week sales of The departed:
Blu-ray - 20,000+
HD-DVD - 13,000

Then check out the amazon.com sales rankings where the Blu-ray version has ranked significantly higher than the HD-DVD version since then....at one point it was #59 versus #500+, today it's #109 vs #369

wnorris has particpated quite a bit in this thread and I'm wondering what other people think of some claims he has made in another thread that relate to these sales figures. From:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10071813&&#post10071813

Anybody here find this 500k per month claim for HD DVD credible? That would put Blu-ray over a million per month for this year.

--Darin

Absolutely it's credible. Remember, Warner are claiming the total HD disc market will be worth $1 Billion in 2007. That may be a little hopeful and sales would be heavily weighted towards the end of the year, but if true would mean over 30 million discs sold in 2007 (assuming $30 average price per title).

If we go by Nielsen alone then less than 1 million discs have sold, counting both formats. Nielsen reporting 50% of the market would make close to 2 million (year to date). That's still a little low to hit Warner's target but maybe more realistic.

I think we can now reasonably say that Nielsen are good for showing us accurate market share data but not much use when it comes to calculating actual volumes that can account for online sales and B&M sales.

I'm begining to think that when sales volume figures are reported the source of the data is in fact the HD format war forums!

First week sales of The departed:
Blu-ray - 20,000+
HD-DVD - 13,000

Then check out the amazon.com sales rankings where the Blu-ray version has ranked significantly higher than the HD-DVD version since then....at one point it was #59 versus #500+, today it's #109 vs #369

Which is why I said on average. 200K in disc sales spread across 21 titles is much less, on average, than 100K spread across 6. The numbers don't have to be correct, but the sales ratio is.

That's the first thing I asked ;) but they couldn't go into any more detail. Probably there is only so much they can say openly. However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease.
As someone said before (I belive Kosty) , the recent bad weather (ice, snow) could have hampered the data collection or processing, lets wait for the next set of #s.

Grubert, can you ask if there will be a revision to these current figures, and therefore subsequent weekly data to reflect actual weekly #s or will the revision be "lumped" into the next set. If the latter, for accuracy we may have to average the 2weeks but this will obfuscate CR's sales #s and impact.

Fun fun fun :eek: :p

asj,
This is not a stomping as you would suggest, nor is it getting bigger. You can believe what you want but again, that doesnt make it true, and saying it over and over and over and over again, wont make it any truer.

The adjective indicates that one format (Blu-ray) is beating another (Hd-DVD) in a decisive manner...

A 4:1 sales lead IS a stomping (that means 80% of all HD sales were blu-ray). The EVER RISING lead in DVDEmpire, Amazon.com sales rankings, and videoscan numbers for Blu-ray IS a stomping.

HD-DVD used to outsell blu-ray only several months a ago, while it is now being outsold 4:1 - that means blu-ray sales are growing faster than HD-DVD - if it did not, then HD-DVD would STILL be outselling blu-ray today. simple huh?

And Toshiba emailing customers urging them not to listen to the "propaganda" from the BDA (as if that would cover the actual sales NUMBERS) is a real example of "protesting too much" in the face of reality - the NUMBERS.

The one thing we can analyze is the sales ratios. We see that our February 11th YTD number and March 11th YTD number are about the same. Between these two points, HD DVD had a spike in sales to gain some ground and then lost it again. So what happened during that 4 week period?

HD DVD had 6 releases while Blu-ray had 21 releases. This would seem to indicate to me that a title released in Blu-ray will, on average, sell more copies than a title on Blu-ray. Until you can show that a title on Blu-ray can sell more than a title on HD DVD consistently, I don't think you will see Universal make any moves.

The irony is that if any Blu-ray studio decides to go neutral, it would make the sales per title worse for all those involved (as more titles are fighting over the same dollar).
Okay, you confused me. :D

If you're suggesting a new release on HD-DVD will sell more (proportionately) than a new release on BR, of course it will! The reason is HD-DVD customers are starving for software! HD-DVD owners are hungry for content so anything being released is initially selling well. Since BR customers have so many more new releases to choose from, the individual releases on BR become more diluted, but in the long run they should out sell HD-DVD.

Grubert, can you ask if there will be a revision to these current figures, and therefore subsequent weekly data to reflect actual weekly #s or will the revision be "lumped" into the next set. If the latter, for accuracy we may have to average the 2weeks but this will obfuscate CR's sales #s and impact.


Ms McCourt said that the data for the week of March 11 is based on first alert estimates from Nielsen and that the data for the previous week is adjusted on Wednesday to reflect the entire reporting sample, although to date the adjustments have not been measurable.

However, those corrections are not incorporated to published sales ratios, so are carried over to next week's data.

That's the first thing I asked ;) but they couldn't go into any more detail. Probably there is only so much they can say openly. However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease.

Sorry, but if the ratios reported are correct then the volume drops are correct - at least on the spreadsheet model used here with Icemage's start numbers.

If the volumes this week are off then they have been off every week and the spreadsheet model is useless no matter what starting data you put into it.

Anybody want to explain how the model has somehow worked, but only up to this week?

We know the true volumes are not correct because no correction has been made for the fact that Nielsen don't report Amazon (or have hidden their figures this week) and at least one major retailer - Walmart.

Nielsen claim not to extrapolate either so it would be nice to see their actual numbers. On the other hand, it's possible that the calculations here are pretty close (at least as far as Nielsens limited reporting market is concerned) and Nielsen want to make us think were not close to protect their 'expert' status.

Edit: hang on, did I just misread! Did Nielsen say we, as in here on AVS, were off or were they saying WE NIELSEN are off. If the latter please disregard the above!

That's pretty darn cryptic.

So both formats sales numbers decreases weren't as bad as we calculated?

Maybe there was a general one time adjustment factor that screwed up our weekly calculation numbers.
It's even more cryptic that this, I think. They didn't say whether we were over- or under-estimating the decreases...

That's the first thing I asked ;) but they couldn't go into any more detail. Probably there is only so much they can say openly. However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease.

Grubert, do you have any idea, why they don't release actual measured sales numbers, in addition to their ratios?

Maybe HD-DVD showed a strong showing and Nielson figured the data was wrong. Wasn't there talk of have hd-dvd supports buying as many discs as they could no Amazon on the 15th? Maybe when they saw that, they were told not to include the data?

Maybe HD-DVD showed a strong showing and Nielson figured the data was wrong. Wasn't there talk of have hd-dvd supports buying as many discs as they could no Amazon on the 15th? Maybe when they saw that, they were told not to include the data?

I think the HD DVD fans are going over the top on APRIL 15th not March 15th - which showed not much happening at Amazon on the HD DVD side.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/amazon25mar20.jpg

In my vocabulary 'being out sold' 4:1 would indicate this is happening on a consistent basis for some time, not one week where the better selling format appears to have lost 50% sales. If anything it means the sources data gathering is suspect or not totally reliable, if the more likely scenario was that BD sales did not drop 50%. Overall monthly sales even on DVDempire shows less than 2:1 sales lead and Neilson too is showing a 2:1 ratio.

Now 2:1 can be a stomping, but not when the difference is 20K units as it is now.

It behooves us to be objective :)

I think the HD DVD fans are going over the top on APRIL 15th not March 15th - which showed not much happening at Amazon on the HD DVD side.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/amazon25mar20.jpg

What's the point of April 15, given that it appears that Amazon isn't sampled in the Neilsen/VideoScan numbers???

What's the point of April 15, given that it appears that Amazon isn't sampled in the Neilsen/VideoScan numbers???

You'll have to ask the HD DVD fanboys. It's their wacky idea.

Perhaps they think Amazon sales do show up in Nielsen. Perhaps they just want to post an Amazon chart that shows a sales spike. Who knows? Who cares? :)

However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease.

Which to me means the decreases are much smaller than our calculations show.

Since our calculations are mathematically consistent, I've to say the base for each week probably changes a little everyweek making our calculations go off track once in a while (I hope). Let us wait for next week's data.

What's the point of April 15, given that it appears that Amazon isn't sampled in the Neilsen/VideoScan numbers???

How do you know it isn't? I took heat from BD supporters a while back for saying just that (with someone producing a document from Neilson showing that they did) - I guess it's somewhere buried on this thread!

So is Amazon factored or not?

You'll have to ask the HD DVD fanboys. It's their wacky idea.


thanks for saying "fanboys". i own hd dvd and have nothing to do with that dumb idea. especially since there's nothing but crap movies to buy!

I think the HD DVD fans are going over the top on APRIL 15th not March 15th - which showed not much happening at Amazon on the HD DVD side.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/amazon25mar20.jpg


FWIW you graph does show a slight upward inflection for HD DVD and a downward inflection on March 15 for BD - perhaps that is the impact of a few who thought it was 3/15 instead of 4/15 :)

Here's what my calculation spreadsheet indicates, based on the numbers given:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/nwzymny5zkzfzfqhm2ng.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=nwzymny5zkzfzfqhm2ng.jpg)

These numbers HAVE to be wrong. It's not a matter of the Amazon sale; from what I can tell the problem is that the shift in SI is too small for the posted difference in YTD.

I also want to point out something. PC Mag said that the sales ratio for March 4th were as follows:

BD: 65.7
HD: 34.3

According to the above, that week 75,145 discs were sold. BD sold 49,371 (65%) and HD sold 25,774 (35%). So it appears the thing is working. As long as those Nielson numbers are true, so are the units.

OR maybe the HD DVD sales data from a major chain didn't get sent because someone got stuck in the snow?As someone said before (I belive Kosty) , the recent bad weather (ice, snow) could have hampered the data collection or processing, lets wait for the next set of #s.Is there some reason to think sales numbers are delivered by hand? I believe we got rid of the Pony Express some time ago.

No, sales numbers are communicated via computer and stored electronically in a central area with plenty of backups. Unless someone let off an EMP in the NE, sales numbers (especially from the big chains) were not delayed or misplaced.

How do you know it isn't? I took heat from BD supporters a while back for saying just that (with someone producing a document from Neilson showing that they did) - I guess it's somewhere buried on this thread!

So is Amazon factored or not?

For last week's figures, I assumed it wasn't included. Prior to that, I wasn't entirely sure ...

I do remember seeing that PDF (purported to be from Neilsen/VideoScan) showing that Amazon was included. However, I inferred from the most recent set of numbers from VideoScan that Amazon was *not* included, as the 50% drop in unit sales (coinciding with the huge jump in the Amazon Blu-ray rankings) strongly supports that assumption.

Maybe Grubert or an insider could find out if Amazon sales are included?

Sorry, but if the ratios reported are correct then the volume drops are correct - at least on the spreadsheet model used here with Icemage's start numbers.

If the volumes this week are off then they have been off every week and the spreadsheet model is useless no matter what starting data you put into it.

Anybody want to explain how the model has somehow worked, but only up to this week?

We know the true volumes are not correct because no correction has been made for the fact that Nielsen don't report Amazon (or have hidden their figures this week) and at least one major retailer - Walmart.

I'll explain how my model works, and you'll see why I think the numbers are strange.

I take the assumed values from the yellow boxes (1/1/07) and increase by a multiple of the weekly YTD values for both formats until I reach the reported SI value. Since the projection is a function of ratios and not raw numbers, the size of the numbers estimated on 1/1/07 is irrelavent to what Home Media Magazine is reporting from Nielsen. What matters is the ratio of BD to HD.

If you have a copy of my spreadsheet you can see this yourself; plug in any numbers in the yellow boxes that match the same 64% ratio on 1/1/07 and you'll see that the calculated weekly percentages don't budge.

There are two interpretations of what Home Media Magazine responded with.

Case A
The first possibility is that our estimate of the decrease is "signficantly off" with respect to the scale of the numbers. That would mean that our usage of Vito Montado's numbers is flawed, and that his numbers only happened to match Nielsen's in ratio that week (this similarity is what prompted me to use his numbers for projection in the first place).

Case B
The second possibility is that our estimate of the weekly sales ratios is "significantly off". If this is the case, then the only source of error would be our assumed values from 1/1/07 if we assume the Nielsen data provided is accurate (and we have no reason to believe they are not being reported incorrectly).

There is a third possibility, too:

Case C
It is possible that our ratio of SI assumed on 1/1/07 is wrong. I did some experimenting and found that, as the relative SI of BD gets smaller, the relative weekly sales ratios of BD to HD on 3/11 shift in the opposite direction.

Our current assumption is that BD had 64% of the sales since inception of HD on 1/1/07.

If we assume BD only had 50% of HD's SI on 1/1/07, the weekly numbers in most weeks doesn't change much, but the one on 3/11/07 grows more lopsided, leaving BD with 87.52% to HD's 12.48% of weekly sales for 3/11/07.

If we shift the numbers in the other direction, the numbers change as well. If we assume BD had 75% of HD's SI on 1/1/07, the percentages become 77.50% for BD versus 22.50% for HD.

Note that the weekly numbers don't make a lot of sense in either of the two extreme cases above, so I don't really think either one is representative, but... something's got to give.

If somebody just gave us the units sold by each format as of 1/1/07 life would be much easier. :)

This is really going to blow everyone's gasket. Sony will soon announce that Casino Royale has sold over 100K units. That's probably worldwide, but still, at least 2/3 are going to be here in the states.

Nice!

thanks for saying "fanboys". i own hd dvd and have nothing to do with that dumb idea. especially since there's nothing but crap movies to buy!

Then, clearly, I was not refering to you. Just the ones who do have something to do with that "dumb idea".

And Plaz, yes, maybe a few jumped the gun on March 15th!

So does Videoscan put a little device on the PoS system to send scanned data to their servers directly, or do vendors send them a spreadsheet that they manually enter to come up with the aggregate sales?

FWIW, I think a better idea would be for an equivalent amazon sale by Universal, they easily have enough disks already released, and there's a few almost buys in there that are just priced too high.

FWIW, I think a better idea would be for an equivalent amazon sale by Universal, they easily have enough disks already released, and there's a few almost buys in there that are just priced too high.

Something like 50% off all combos would be a nice idea.

As someone said before (I belive Kosty) , the recent bad weather (ice, snow) could have hampered the data collection or processing, lets wait for the next set of #s.

Grubert, can you ask if there will be a revision to these current figures, and therefore subsequent weekly data to reflect actual weekly #s or will the revision be "lumped" into the next set. If the latter, for accuracy we may have to average the 2weeks but this will obfuscate CR's sales #s and impact.

Fun fun fun :eek: :pMs McCourt said that the data for the week of March 11 is based on first alert estimates from Nielsen and that the data for the previous week is adjusted on Wednesday to reflect the entire reporting sample, although to date the adjustments have not been measurable.

However, those corrections are not incorporated to published sales ratios, so are carried over to next week's data. It is entirely possible that real world weather events that closed businesses on the US midwest and east coast cities for a few days affected the data collection, especially of the first alert data.

Having been involved in some types of weekly national data collection efforts in the past (in the miilitary not consomumer research) I know firsthand how some very human events can affect even automated and electronically processed weekly data collection. Those types of things though eventually correct themselves in the data set in subsequent weeks if the system is designed correctly, which I assume the Nielson system is.

Something like 50% off all combos would be a nice idea.

Amir just gave personal endorsement for the April 15th amazon HD DVD day.

Cry Havoc, and let loose the dogs of war. :D

Actually, I am curious how that will pan out, but I think a more effective strategy is to just have a simple 10 day sale.

I'm not particularly alarmed for either format. 1) Neither format had any releases the for the last week and 2) we don't even know if this drop is normal or not, since neither existed last year.

If BD, at least, doesn't show a huge surge due to Casino Royale, then I may grow a bit concerned, but I'm expecting a couple peaks and troughs this year...

Something like 50% off all combos would be a nice idea.

I'd probably get a couple, at least. But they'd still be flippers. :mad:

So does Videoscan put a little device on the PoS system to send scanned data to their servers directly, or do vendors send them a spreadsheet that they manually enter to come up with the aggregate sales? Could be automatic, or it could be aggregated and then electronically sent when someone pushes a button.

The first alert data is a probably all electronically gathered through the POS systems although it does does not have to be automatically transmitted without review.

The later final numbers have to be survey or sample based or manually called in and collected and probably have some human transcription involved. They involve some retailers where the data cannot be electronically compiled and transmitted.

Amir just gave personal endorsement for the April 15th amazon HD DVD day.

Cry Havoc, and let loose the dogs of war. :D

Actually, I am curious how that will pan out, but I think a more effective strategy is to just have a simple 10 day sale. That will be interesting.

I personally see some HD DVD discs I want to buy now, but I'm holding off onto that date to see if there might be any measurable affect on the Amazon rankings.

IMO, "Amazon HD DVD day" will amount to a couple hundred extra disks sold at the most, but it'll be fun to watch.

How do you know it isn't? I took heat from BD supporters a while back for saying just that (with someone producing a document from Neilson showing that they did) - I guess it's somewhere buried on this thread!

So is Amazon factored or not? The "evidence" some were citing was the Nielson numbers recently were not consistent with the Amazon numbers showing either the Amazon Blu-ray 50% off sales spike or last weeks Blu-ra and HD DVD sales drop.

But that could either be explained by absolute volumes or data collection (first alert) quirks.

That e-mail list you criticized still seemed pretty reasonable to me.

The one thing to consider in the long run as volumes pick up and more retailers carry and sell larger quantities is that Wal-Mart and Sam's Club data won't be submitted and IIRC must be estimated or not included. (IIRC its estimated).

Ms McCourt said that the data for the week of March 11 is based on first alert estimates from Nielsen and that the data for the previous week is adjusted on Wednesday to reflect the entire reporting sample, although to date the adjustments have not been measurable.

However, those corrections are not incorporated to published sales ratios, so are carried over to next week's data.
ty.

I take it then, as in the Combo's not being included for 2 weeks in the Jan weekly sales ratios but then included in the YTD ones, we will only see a bump in the YTD ratios once the data is revised/corrected.

This also explains well why we have seen some YTD and SI fluctuations that weren't consistent with the weekly ratios :D

I still believe Amazon #s are not included in the Nielson/Videoscan data....

Is there some reason to think sales numbers are delivered by hand? I believe we got rid of the Pony Express some time ago.

No, sales numbers are communicated via computer and stored electronically in a central area with plenty of backups. Unless someone let off an EMP in the NE, sales numbers (especially from the big chains) were not delayed or misplaced. Not necessarily true. That's ususally the case, but not absolutely so. Some companies may actually have a human trigger to allow data to transmit after electronic collection. Wal-Mart used to before they completely pulled out of the reporting systems. I believe that some other major retailers still do have human reviews before they release data to outside sources.

Also power outages and other events could delay reporting.

Not saying it did, but the first alert data is identified as being vulnerable to imcomplete data reporting.

That could also affect "first alert" data more than final numbers as the first alert does not have to include a complete data set.

IMO, "Amazon HD DVD day" will amount to a couple hundred extra disks sold at the most, but it'll be fun to watch. Could be interesting if a couple hundred people here participated. I plan to buy at least a half dozen discs that I previously rented and want now to own and a half dozen new releases.

A thousand Amazon disc sales or more should produce a noticable spike.

Could be interesting if a couple hundred people here participated. I plan to buy at least a half dozen discs that I previously rented and want now to own and a half dozen new releases.

A thousand Amazon disc sales or more should produce a noticable spike.

Unfortunately, it's ridiculous as it ultimately proves nothing because one could theoretically PRE-ORDER 100,000 copies of a title, get the title to spike to #1 briefly, then CANCEL the pre-order before it ships.

I would be more interested in seeing an actual sales spike for that day from nielsen, but what's happening is they are simply buying in one day what they would in 31 days or so, so the real effect would be a net of zero for that month, but possibly an effect on sales that week. maybe we get a sales raio of 2:1 in favor of blu-ray instead of 4:1 blu-ray :p

Btw, if this doesn't smack of fanboyism and desperation, I'm not sure what would :rolleyes:

wet,

I couldn't reading past the first sentence because I spit my coffee all over the monitor after reading this.

I actually dont, since I dont own a player. What I find bothersome are things like claims from Sony that BD will replace DVD in 3 years.

asj,

I dont know why I respond but - this is from your post

First week sales of The departed:
Blu-ray - 20,000+
HD-DVD - 13,000

7-10K discs in a week, especially at those levels, are not a stomping. If the numbers were available I would bet that iTunes sold more than 30K copies of the departed.

A 4:1 sales lead IS a stomping (that means 80% of all HD sales were blu-ray). The EVER RISING lead in DVDEmpire, Amazon.com sales rankings, and videoscan numbers for Blu-ray IS a stomping.

Ratios are misleading, especially in this case. The increase in the ratio came in the face of apparently large Decreases in sales. The ratio increased because HD started at a lower level, and the same drop was a bigger precentage drop for HD than BD - hence the ratio increased.

Your increased ratio does NOT indicate an increase in sales, but a differential drop rate. Again, check the figure on Page 94 and you will see that the sales differential remains a pretty constant 25K units, which is accountable by increased number of releases and the PS3.

I also think at least 100,000 HD DVD players have been sold this year alone. Initial purchases alone of those new owners should generate at least 200,000-300,000 HD DVD disc sales.So why doesn't it look like "Batman Begins" is selling better with all those new owners? And are you talking about 100k standalones plus however many XBOX360s add-ons have sold?I also think that a total of 200,000 HD DVD standalone players and 100,000 or so Xbox add ons are currently in the field.There were already reports of 92,000 XBOX360 add-ons at the end of 2006 and 112,000 later (I think it might have been the end of January). From what I've seen Toshiba makes the drives for those (or at least they did). The HD DVD camp included all player types (including the add-on) in their sentence about 175k+ players in NA at the end of 2006. Why do you think they would only give the number for standalones and not include the add-on when the total would be a much more impressive number and in the past they used the total? And why do you think people at Toshiba or working for the HD DVD camp would mention Blu-ray having 5x the players (when counting the PS3) if HD DVD has well over 300,000 and not just 200,000 installed?

With your claim of 300,000 dedicated players (including the XBOX360 with add-on), what do you think of the sales reports for "The Departed" on HD DVD of 13,000 or 15,0000 the first week?

--Darin

...Btw, if this doesn't smack of fanboyism and desperation, I'm not sure what would :rolleyes: I consider myself neither a fanboy nr desperate but I will participate as I think it would be a useful experiment to get an idea of what kind of volumes we are talking about in the Amazon sales tracking and to see if any sales translate into stockage numbers.

All I am saying is that I am now delaying my personal sales for the month until that date. :D


I do not think think the HD DVD fans are as desperae as you image them to be.

Thats a pretty emotionally invested statement.

HD DVD had 6 releases while Blu-ray had 21 releases. This would seem to indicate to me that a title released in Blu-ray will, on average, sell more copies than a title on Blu-ray. Until you can show that a title on Blu-ray can sell more than a title on HD DVD consistently, I don't think you will see Universal make any moves.There are multiple problems with that analysis. First, it leaves out all previous movies in the marketplace. Sales aren't just new releases and so it is incorrect to use a ratio of new releases as if it should be the ratio of sales. Also, the quality of the releases matters quite a bit. "The Departed" on Blu-ray could have easily outsold something like 12 other Blu-ray releases the same day. If those hadn't come out the effect on sales probably would have been lower than if "The Departed" hadn't come out. You have to look at comparable titles at the least.

If you want to use the logic above, then maybe you should look at the data for the week ending January 21st when HD DVD had 7 new releases to 5 for Blu-ray and Blu-ray still outsold them over 2:1 according to Nielsen.
Also, were there any new releases on BD? How many? Should you have a drop in sales when you have new releases? Should the gap have been greater given that there were no new releases in HD DVD?Neither had any new releases that week.
Absolutely it's credible. Remember, Warner are claiming the total HD disc market will be worth $1 Billion in 2007. That may be a little hopeful and sales would be heavily weighted towards the end of the year, but if true would mean over 30 million discs sold in 2007 (assuming $30 average price per title).

If we go by Nielsen alone then less than 1 million discs have sold, counting both formats. Nielsen reporting 50% of the market would make close to 2 million (year to date). That's still a little low to hit Warner's target but maybe more realistic.Warner was also throwing out big numbers for 2006 about a year ago. They didn't happen. You claim that his stuff about the sales actually being 4x higher or 500k per month is credible, but you really didn't back it up with much. Do you believe that Blu-ray is selling 1 million discs per month, which would only be 2x that 500k claim for HD DVD and Blu-ray has actually been tracking better than that according the Nielsen numbers.

--Darin

7-10K discs in a week, especially at those levels, are not a stomping. If the numbers were available I would bet that iTunes sold more than 30K copies of the departed.

You are way too hung up on unit numbers. We are comparing the two formats directly against each other, not to the market. Using percentages to compare the two formats when only Blu-ray and HD DVD data is being used is more than valid. Using those percentages, we can clearly see that HD DVD is taking a hurting compared to Blu-ray.

Now, if you want to say that none of this matters because total sales are too small on a market level, that is fine, but you can't use market level data to directly compare two formats in the market. That would be like saying that the Personal Computer is a failure because only a small percentage of the world actually owns Personal Computers.

Darin,

That whole paragraph seems to be based on the incorrect assumption that Blu-ray had releases and HD DVD didn't for that week. Neither had any new releases that week.

Not at all. Go look at the Figure in the middle of page 94 that shows weekly sales from Jan through Mar 11. The gap is a pretty constant 20-25K units per week. So, at least according to that figure BD is not increasing its lead etc. - it shows a pretty constant difference between the two that hasnt really changed much over the last couple of months.

Not at all. Go look at the Figure in the middle of page 94 that shows weekly sales from Jan through Mar 11. The gap is a pretty constant 20-25K units per week. So, at least according to that figure BD is not increasing its lead etc. - it shows a pretty constant difference between the two that hasnt really changed much over the last couple of months.
This is an intellectually dishonest observation.

In the world of sales, you don't get 25,000 consumers who suddenly say "Oh, I want to buy more Blu-ray than HD DVD this week." The vast majority of these buyers do not have a choice; format neutrality is still exceedingly rare.

The real question on the table is what happened to the HD DVD sales last week, and why are my projections (as well as nataraj's) so low?

Between us, nataraj and I are probably the ones most familiar with the numbers at this point, and I'm sure nataraj will agree with me when I say that, if we accept that the reported values from Nielsen are correct on 3/4 and 3/11, then the sales ratio between Blu-ray and HD DVD on 3/11 cannot reasonably be any lower than about 3.5:1, and no higher than 7.0:1, no matter what numbers we pick as the starting point on 1/1/07. This is a huge departure from the 1.8 to 2.2 ratio we've been seeing since 1/28.

So why doesn't it look like "Batman Begins" is selling better with all those new owners? I don't know unless the sites we are using don't track all the sales.

And are you talking about 100k standalones plus however many XBOX360s add-ons have sold?There were already reports of 92,000 XBOX360 add-ons at the end of 2006 and 112,000 later (I think it might have been the end of January). At CeBit a Toshiba executive mentioned 200,000 Toshiba HD DVD players sold to date. That syncs pretty well with other data I have and is consistent with my previous declarations that 50-60 000 1st generation players were sold, Toshiba has already last month sold as many 2nd generation players as first generation players and Circuit City has had increased HD A2 sales each week for more than a month now.

I have no better Xbox numbers than the ones you cited.

From what I've seen Toshiba makes the drives for those (or at least they did). The HD DVD camp included all player types (including the add-on) in their sentence about 175k+ players in NA at the end of 2006. Why do you think they would only give the number for standalone and not include the add-on when the total would be a much more impressive number and in the past they used the total? Maybe because the Toshiba executive was not trying to PR spin in a press conference as much as he was trying to give an accurate response to what he knew of, which was the Toshiba numbers? Maybe he felt it was not appropriate to mention the Xbox 360 add on numbers?

And why do you think people at Toshiba or working for the HD DVD camp would mention Blu-ray having 5x the players (when counting the PS3) if HD DVD has well over 300,000 and not just 200,000 installed? Because these are coming from interviews and not coordinated press conferences?

With your claim of 300,000 dedicated players (including the XBOX360 with add-on), what do you think of the sales reports for "The Departed" on HD DVD of 13,000 or 15,0000 the first week? Well, typically a normal DVD release has about a 6 week run for 80% of it sales and IIRC about 20% of its sales in the first week. But that is for the installed base of DVD players. With HD DVD that 6 week window would account for only short term sales and the installed base is continuing to expand.

So assume 15,000 total sales the first week. That would give 75,000 unit sales in the next 6 weeks.

75,000/300,000 = 25% sales rate for that particular title. If a studio could count on a 25% sales rate to an installed base, they would just love that.

I'm not sure if The Departed is a Xbox 360 kind of title.

I also think a lot of first generation players are now the second HD DVD players in a lot of first adopter households so 25,000 or so of them are now secondary players. Total WAG on my part.

Not at all. Go look at the Figure in the middle of page 94 that shows weekly sales from Jan through Mar 11. The gap is a pretty constant 20-25K units per week. So, at least according to that figure BD is not increasing its lead etc. - it shows a pretty constant difference between the two that hasnt really changed much over the last couple of months.I had changed my post before this to take out the first half of his paragraph, as it was really the 2nd half that was based on the assumption that Blu-ray had releases that week and HD DVD didn't.

--Darin

With your claim of 300,000 dedicated players (including the XBOX360 with add-on), what do you think of the sales reports for "The Departed" on HD DVD of 13,000 or 15,0000 the first week? Not so much my claim as my best estimate based on some other information besides the stuff being openly discussed here. :)

I'm just saying that the Toshiba executive CeBit quote of 200,000 Toshiba players sold so far and the estimated 112,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD add on estimate is very close to the estimate I had made that was based on some addtional information sources.

In my mind at least, it made it more likely to be true.

As an aside, Toshiba has been previously conservative in its stated sales estimates of HD DVD players.

http://www.tech.co.uk/home-entertainment/high-definition/news/toshiba-rejects-blu-ray-victory-claim?articleid=943604279

Olivier Van Wynendaele, Deputy General manager of HD DVD at Toshiba Ltd said ....that Toshiba had sold 200,00 HD DVD players in the US, compared to just 30,000 true Blu-ray players. ...

Icemage,

This is an intellectually dishonest observation.

How is it intellectually dishonest? The figure on page 94 is from Natarj, here are the rounded numbers

date bd hd diff ratio

Jan 28 49 22 27 2.22
Feb 4 46 21 25 2.1 9
Feb 11 45 20 25 2.25
Feb 18 54 29 25 1.86
Feb 25 61 29 32 2.10
Mar 4 49 26 23 1.88
Mar 11 25 6 19 4.17

So, you tell me what is intellecually dishonest. The absolute difference over that time frame is a fairly constant 25K units per month. Am I wrong? Not really.

Also, the increase in the sales ratio to 4:1 that asj loves to trumpet, is not because sales of BD discs increased over HD discs, as asj seems to imply. Rather the ratio increased because HD had a proportionally bigger drop in sales than BD. If asj wants to call that stomping and smashing, he may do so, but most people wouldnt agree with him.

That syncs pretty well with other data I have and is consistent with my previous declarations that 50-60 000 1st generation players were sold, Toshiba has already last month sold as many 2nd generation players as first generation players and Circuit City has had increased HD A2 sales each week for more than a month now.Still wondering why the head of Toshiba of America said 60k total at the end of 2006, counting maybe 30k Gen1s. Circuit City should have increased sales each week given that they started carrying it not that long ago. I still doubt that Toshiba sold even 20k HD-A2s in January. I wonder where all these sales are given that it looks like Amazon has been selling maybe 1k a month or less.
Well, typically a normal DVD release has about a 6 week run for 80% of it sales and IIRC about 20% of its sales in the first week. But that is for the installed base of DVD players. With HD DVD that 6 week window would account for only short term sales and the installed base is continuing to expand.For a high profile title with its first release? I've seen 5 million the first day for one of the Pirates DVDs and I doubt they ended up selling as many as the only 20% in the first week (not just the first day) would lead to.

--Darin

Still wondering why the head of Toshiba of America said 60k total at the end of 2006, counting maybe 30k Gen1s I was told very specifically that that was a translation error and it confused two statements of his together.

He could have meant something like we have sold 50,000 first and 10,000 second generation units to date this year and we expect to sell as many second generation as first generation units by the end of the year. But since the HD A2 shipment date slipped that expectation of second generation sales matching first generation sales was not met until January or Febuary.

That I think is more or less the accurate statement.

Stop press:

The numbers include amazon.

I was told very specifically that that was a translation error and it confused two statements of his together.

He could have meant something like we have sold 50,000 first and 10,000 second generation units to date this year and we expect to sell as many second generation as first generation units by the end of the year. But since the HD A2 shipment date slipped that expectation of second generation sales matching first generation sales was not met until January or Febuary.

That I think is more or less the accurate statement.I thought his statement was after the end of 2006.

--Darin

I wonder where all these sales are given that it looks like Amazon has been selling maybe 1k a month or less. I think the inventoy tracking methodolgy you are basing that on is underestimating sales, perhaps some direct fufillment sales that never show up in inventory?

IIRC I think VE alone has sold more than 1000 HD A2s a month mail order , or close to it. I can't believe Amazon has sold less.

Not so much my claim as my best estimate based on some other information besides the stuff being openly discussed here. :)Maybe you could ask your contacts a simple question. Does HD DVD have an installed base of over 320k, including standalones and XBOX360 add-ons? I think the Toshiba guy was probably including both in his 200k number, but they should be willing to clarify that it was standalones and didn't include the add-ons, if that is the case.

--Darin

IIRC I think VE alone has sold more than 1000 HD A2s a month mail order , or close to it. I can't believe Amazon has sold less.Do you remember what he said for Gen1s? I seem to recall him posting a number that indicated a good percentage of standalone player sales (maybe 10%) were through him.

--Darin

josh,

You are way too hung up on unit numbers. We are comparing the two formats directly against each other, not to the market. Using percentages to compare the two formats when only Blu-ray and HD DVD data is being used is more than valid. Using those percentages, we can clearly see that HD DVD is taking a hurting compared to Blu-ray.

Ratios are abstracted data - and there are different ways to get changes in ratios, and the way the ratios get there make a difference. As I pointed out above, the 4:1 sales ratio did not occur because BD sales went up and HD sales remained the same. The ratio went up, because HD had a proportionally larger drop in sales. Again, if you want to call a relatively smaller decline in sales a victory, go ahead but that is not the same as BD stomping HD, which implies that BD sales are on the increase.

That would be like saying that the Personal Computer is a failure because only a small percentage of the world actually owns Personal Computers.

You have picked a nonsensical context for the numbers in this case. The world is not the proper frame of reference.

grubert,

Stop press:

The numbers include amazon.

Are you sure? if so, then HD is in trouble, and all the BD boys should hold onto their hats, cause they are in trouble also.

Stop press:

The numbers include amazon.

Well, so much for the 50% sale ... LOL

I'm amazed. It really does seem both formats are in trouble, with some being more equal than the others.

...

Between us, nataraj and I are probably the ones most familiar with the numbers at this point, and I'm sure nataraj will agree with me when I say that, if we accept that the reported values from Nielsen are correct on 3/4 and 3/11, then the sales ratio between Blu-ray and HD DVD on 3/11 cannot reasonably be any lower than about 3.5:1, and no higher than 7.0:1, no matter what numbers we pick as the starting point on 1/1/07. This is a huge departure from the 1.8 to 2.2 ratio we've been seeing since 1/28.

So, the data is collared as [3.5,7]:1. If this continues for any period of time, the press will have a field day with these kinds of numbers.

Ratios are abstracted data - and there are different ways to get changes in ratios, and the way the ratios get there make a difference. As I pointed out above, the 4:1 sales ratio did not occur because BD sales went up and HD sales remained the same. The ratio went up, because HD had a proportionally larger drop in sales. Again, if you want to call a relatively smaller decline in sales a victory, go ahead but that is not the same as BD stomping HD, which implies that BD sales are on the increase.

If anything, can you agree that HD DVD is more sensitive to the market? That it relies heavier on new releases to sustain its existence than Blu-ray does?

Maybe you could ask your contacts a simple question. Does HD DVD have an installed base of over 320k, including standalone and XBOX360 add-ons? I think the Toshiba guy was probably including both in his 200k number, but they should be willing to clarify that it was standalone and didn't include the add-ons, if that is the case.

--Darin They say that 200,000 Toshiba units sold is an accurate number and that shipments are increasing as well as stockage requests from major retailers.

There may be always some shipped/sold disparity in reporting.

They say Toshiba is well on track to sell over 1.2 million second generation players this year and that the HD A2 first quarter sales numbers were above their internal projections.

Toshiba has not yet met a flat 100,000 in HD A2 sales in any month, which would be the straight line estimate, but that 2nd and 3rd quarter and 4th quarter sales projections were being revised upward based on 1st quarter sales.

Sales were expected to increase significantly in the second quarter and would be boosted further by the MSRP reduction to $399.

The HD A2 MSRP was expected to be reduced to $399 earlier, but was held to $499 because of stronger than projected sales at that price point at a major retailer.

The HD XA2 is selling much better than expected and that production is being increased on that model.

I have no additional information on Xbox 360 add on sales besides what has been discussed here at AVS.

Well, so much for the 50% sale ... LOL

I'm amazed. It really does seem both formats are in trouble, with some being more equal than the others.

Note that many titles went out of stock very fast so the actual sale didn't take place that week. For example, I ordered Memento on Wed 7 (third day into the sale) and it shipped eight days later.

Are you sure? if so, then HD is in trouble, and all the BD boys should hold onto their hats, cause they are in trouble also.Grubert already posted:
However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease."so I'm not sure why people still seem to be assuming that things dropped as much as our numbers show. Unless you are claiming BD is in trouble for some other reason.

--Darin

Stop press:

The numbers include amazon.

What we know for sure:

1) Next weeks data will include Casino Royale.
2) Next weeks data will include no new HD DVD releases.

Ouch. Any bets on what the ratio is going to be?

Ilka,

Well, so much for the 50% sale ... LOL

I'm amazed. It really does seem both formats are in trouble, with some being more equal than the others.

I dont see how you can say that. If those numbers are true, it is a disaster for both. As you pointed out, the numbers include the Amazon sale. IN SPITE of the sale, BD saw a 50% drop in volume. That spells as much trouble for BD as it does HD.

Josh,

If anything, can you agree that HD DVD is more sensitive to the market? That it relies heavier on new releases to sustain its existence than Blu-ray does?

I will agree that HD is being outsold. That is indisputable. I dont know about the new release parts though, as most of the titles are catalog, which personally I prefer.

Look the only point I am really arguing is the term stomping, etc because when you look at the numbers,

1. they arent that far apart in the grand scheme of things, and the difference is easily accounted for by the PS3

2. The difference is amazingly constant, as the numbers show, and the difference isnt getting bigger.

darin,

so I'm not sure why people still seem to be assuming that things dropped as much as our numbers show. Unless you are claiming BD is in trouble for some other reason

Because the numbers include the Amazon sale.

However, a clue was given: we "are off significantly" in our estimates of the decrease."

That statement has many potential meanings. For all anyone knows, the decrease could actually be larger.

Grubert,

Note that many titles went out of stock very fast so the actual sale didn't take place that week. For example, I ordered Memento on Wed 7 (third day into the sale) and it shipped eight days later.

Your statement isnt correct, unless you assume ALL of the titles were out of stock that week. Titles out of stock might attenuate the effects of the sale, but, unless all titles were out of stock, then the sale occurec

Stop press:

The numbers include amazon.
1. How do you know this, G? (Curiosity. Of course no offense intended)

2. How could those March 11, Neilsen figures be correct, then? Those Amazon rankings for BD were through the roof!. One would certainly not expect a drop in sales that week and MOST certainly not to that magnitude.

If Amazon is included, then the 4:1 ratio makes a lot of sense... I'm just not buying the weekly total numbers for either. :confused:

1. How do you know this, G? (Curiosity. Of course no offense intended)

2. How could those March 11, Neilsen figures be correct, then? Those Amazon rankings for BD were through the roof!. One would certainly not expect a drop in sales that week and MOST certainly not to that magnitude.

The top titles are still only selling in the thousands. The top three I computed at about 2,000 units. Amazon sells a lot of discs, but they are by no means the top seller.

Well, so much for the 50% sale ... LOL

I'm amazed. It really does seem both formats are in trouble, with some being more equal than the others.

125K new player sales in the post Xmas doldrums would be a massive and unprecedented occurance.

So, the questions would be:

- Where are the disc sales?
- Where are the newbie posts on here (the biggest A/V site in the world)?
- How can 125K HD DVD players sell in 10 weeks and the world be filled with "HD is in trouble" and "BB's support of HD DVD is crap" posts?

Something doesn't compute here.

Gary

Note that many titles went out of stock very fast so the actual sale didn't take place that week. For example, I ordered Memento on Wed 7 (third day into the sale) and it shipped eight days later.
This is true. I ordered 9 titles from the sale on the 7th. One shipped on March 12th, 4 shipped on March 16th, and the remaining 4 have yet to ship.

This still doesn't explain what happened to HD DVD sales though.

josh,

The top titles are still only selling in the thousands. The top three I computed at about 2,000 units

which is why the rankings are not a stable, or particularly meaningful metric. Selling or not selling a couple of hundred discs could have a huge impact on the rank.

Ilka,



I dont see how you can say that. If those numbers are true, it is a disaster for both. As you pointed out, the numbers include the Amazon sale. IN SPITE of the sale, BD saw a 50% drop in volume. That spells as much trouble for BD as it does HD.

Josh,



I will agree that HD is being outsold. That is indisputable. I dont know about the new release parts though, as most of the titles are catalog, which personally I prefer.

Look the only point I am really arguing is the term stomping, etc because when you look at the numbers,

1. they arent that far apart in the grand scheme of things, and the difference is easily accounted for by the PS3

2. The difference is amazingly constant, as the numbers show, and the difference isnt getting bigger.
:eek: :eek: :eek:

TIME OUT!!!

You guys are driving me freakin' nuts!!!...

and I've been involved in enough of these spats to have developed some resiliency.

O.K., George, you're absolutely correct. If these figures are accurate, this is not good news for either camp. Of course the figures could be accurate, but could be indicative of some weird, weekly loss of interest in HD optical and everything will go back to normal next week. Who knows.

Also, regardless, the ratios bode worse for HD DVD. Period. But personally, with these, reported, low volumes, I could not call this a stomping. Both figures are hideously low and represent a major drop from the nice, cozy averages that we had become so accustomed.

Now I'm begging you guys. PLEASE move on.

This is true. I ordered 9 titles from the sale on the 7th. One shipped on March 12th, 4 shipped on March 16th, and the remaining 4 have yet to ship.

I ordered more titles than I'd care to admit (around 20) and I don't even have a PS3 yet. However, I ordered mine in tiers with some shipping out in June (along with a TV on DVD set), some in April (along with "Deja Vu"), and some with "Casino Royale", but ended up being five different shipments.

Two titles, "Memento" and "Hitch" are shown to be shipping out this week.

"Casino Royale," "Fantastic Four," "Ice Age: The Meltdown", "Kingdom Of Heaven," "The Transporter," and "The Transporter 2" were shipped, and delivered last week.

I was also stopping by Circuit City for something and took advantage of their "Crank" for $24.99 deal (cheaper than on-line) and ended up getting "Layer Cake" due to their $19.99 price tag and "The Holiday" so I could use a $10 off coupon I had.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people lumped their titles in with "Casino Royale"... but I'm still surprised by the lower numbers...

~Alan

I dont see how you can say that. If those numbers are true, it is a disaster for both. As you pointed out, the numbers include the Amazon sale. IN SPITE of the sale, BD saw a 50% drop in volume. That spells as much trouble for BD as it does HD.Why are you using a 50% drop for BD when you agree later that we were told that our numbers are off significantly? What Grubert has said is that the "03/11 YTD: 67.9/32.1 SI: 52.8/47.2" includes Amazon.
Because the numbers include the Amazon sale.Those ratios include the Amazon sale. The ratio looks pretty good for Blu-ray. Can you tell us how Blu-ray is in trouble without relying on that 50% drop?
That statement has many potential meanings. For all anyone knows, the decrease could actually be larger.So, will you please stop basing conclusions on our absolute numbers being right or it being worse?

--Darin

Why are people still assuming the calculated raw weekly numbers are correct?

We've already gotten confirmation they are off and it's especially obvious since Amazon sales are apparently counted.

This shouldn't exactly be surprising when you use data from several different sources and try to combine them.

This is true. I ordered 9 titles from the sale on the 7th. One shipped on March 12th, 4 shipped on March 16th, and the remaining 4 have yet to ship.

This still doesn't explain what happened to HD DVD sales though.
Aha. That could explain a lot. Not about HD DVD, of course. However, how many neutral folks here took a break from HD DVD purchases since the Amazon sale began?

And Josh,

So your top 3 are 6,000. That's a quarter of the total, Neilsen, BD week! The rest of the Amazon sales, alone could account for ALL of Neilsen that week.

However, if it's true that so few were actually shipped and therefore reported until the following week, this could explain it. Loads of consumers, like AVS members heard about the sale, made their purchases there, instead of elsewhere, but few were actually shipped.

So much is now riding on next week's figures.

As an aside, Toshiba has been previously conservative in its stated sales estimates of HD DVD players.

http://www.tech.co.uk/home-entertainment/high-definition/news/toshiba-rejects-blu-ray-victory-claim?articleid=943604279

Quote:
Olivier Van Wynendaele, Deputy General manager of HD DVD at Toshiba Ltd said ....that Toshiba had sold 200,00 HD DVD players in the US, compared to just 30,000 true Blu-ray players. ...



where si that link that HD DVD standalones were about 52% and Blu-ray standalones were about 48% ? it's hardly 200,000 to 30,000

Marek

I ordered more titles than I'd care to admit (around 20) and I don't even have a PS3 yet. However, I ordered mine in tiers with some shipping out in June (along with a TV on DVD set), some in April (along with "Deja Vu"), and some with "Casino Royale", but ended up being five different shipments.

Two titles, "Memento" and "Hitch" are shown to be shipping out this week.

"Casino Royale," "Fantastic Four," "Ice Age: The Meltdown", "Kingdom Of Heaven," "The Transporter," and "The Transporter 2" were shipped, and delivered last week.

I was also stopping by Circuit City for something and took advantage of their "Crank" for $24.99 deal (cheaper than on-line) and ended up getting "Layer Cake" due to their $19.99 price tag and "The Holiday" so I could use a $10 off coupon I had.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people lumped their titles in with "Casino Royale"... but I'm still surprised by the lower numbers...

~Alan
This is making more and more sense to me... or at least the possibilities.

Store purchases, that are counted by Neilsen are immediate.

Now Amazon puts on a big sale where there is a possibility of preorder, unlike the B&Ms. So many decide to put there money here, where, at least I believe, their orders don't count until shipped.

If this is the case, consumers may have just used up their BD budget for weeks, even months, in order to capitalize on this sale. With all of these preorders, it may take some time before the numbers settle back in.

125K new player sales in the post Xmas doldrums would be a massive and unprecedented occurance.

So, the questions would be:

- Where are the disc sales?
- Where are the newbie posts on here (the biggest A/V site in the world)?
- How can 125K HD DVD players sell in 10 weeks and the world be filled with "HD is in trouble" and "BB's support of HD DVD is crap" posts?

Something doesn't compute here.

Gary

Agreed. But what? Kosty thinks it was a weather phenomenom. MidnightWatcher thinks this shows HD DVD strength. Most seem to be happy that since their ship is sinking, as long as BD goes down too, all is well.

What a zoo!

Indeed, if there were 125K HD DVD player sales over the last 10 weeks, then the Attach Rate is probably worse than the PS3. Oh! The insanity of it all. My head hurts.

This is making more and more sense to me... or at least the possibilities.

Store purchases, that are counted by Neilsen are immediate.

Now Amazon puts on a big sale where there is a possibility of preorder, unlike the B&Ms. So many decide to put there money here, where, at least I believe, their orders don't count until shipped.

If this is the case, consumers may have just used up their BD budget for weeks, even months, in order to capitalize on this sale. With all of these preorders, it may take some time before the numbers settle back in.

If a lot of people did like me and lumped their titles in with CR, then next week's numbers should not only get a HUGE boost from CR, but from a bunch of other catalog Blu-Ray releases.

~Alan<~~~~~~~~Who needs a PS3...

So much is now riding on next week's figures.

I just can't believe how much productivity loss comes from following these sales numbers. If this indeed is 24K vs 5K, then we've lost more productivity dollars following it that the total sales that week. ;)

I was told very specifically that that was a translation error and it confused two statements of his together.

He could have meant something like we have sold 50,000 first and 10,000 second generation units to date this year and we expect to sell as many second generation as first generation units by the end of the year. But since the HD A2 shipment date slipped that expectation of second generation sales matching first generation sales was not met until January or Febuary.

That I think is more or less the accurate statement.I thought that I was the one who posted here the interview article with Mr. Uchiyama (http://plusd.itmedia.co.jp/lifestyle/articles/0701/13/news001_3.html), a VP of Toshiba America, about the number of player shipment. Mr. Uchiyama is a Japanese guy and the interviewer is also a Japanese, so unless there was some serious hearing problem or misunderstanding on the interviewer side, or Mr. Uchiyama had completely wrong information at that time, it's difficult to consider there was a translation error. By who were you told that this was a translation error?

darin,

Why are you using a 50% drop for BD when you agree later that we were told that our numbers are off significantly? What Grubert has said is that the "03/11 YTD: 67.9/32.1 SI: 52.8/47.2" includes Amazon.

Why are raw numbers of any sort included at all then? How trustworthy are any of those numbers then. Besides, you have people like Josh using raw numbers.

The ratio looks pretty good for Blu-ray. Can you tell us how Blu-ray is in trouble without relying on that 50% drop?

I will say it again, the ratio exists within a context because it is not the raw data. The ratio looking "pretty good" for BD really depends on absolute numbers.

Sketcha,

Now Amazon puts on a big sale where there is a possibility of preorder, unlike the B&Ms. So many decide to put there money here, where, at least I believe, their orders don't count until shipped.

The thing is, for the effects of the Amazon sale to be non-existent for the week one has to make certain assumptions. First, that no, or at least extremely few discs, were actually sent that week. So, essentially you are assuming that Amazon took orders for discs that werent in stock and they are fulfilling them at a later date. You are also assuming that this is the case for the majority of the titles. That may be true, but it seems unlikely.

As to the HD DVD drop. Does anyone remember when the BB give away was? If it occured that week, one could assume that people buying the player wouldnt buy any titles for awhile, since they got 4 free immediately, and then 5 more with the mail in offer from Toshiba.

I thought that I was the one who posted here the interview article with Mr. Uchiyama (http://plusd.itmedia.co.jp/lifestyle/articles/0701/13/news001_3.html), a VP of Toshiba America, about the number of player shipment. Mr. Uchiyama is a Japanese guy and the interviewer is also a Japanese, so unless there was some serious hearing problem or misunderstanding on the interviewer side, or Mr. Uchiyama had completely wrong information at that time, it's difficult to consider there was a translation error. By who were you told that this was a translation error?

Rio, aren't you fluent in Japanese?

Can you translate this bolder part better:

Google robo translation:

Last year, preceding to BD, business started from April. As for HD-A1 and HD-XA1 it probably is to be able to sell at some kind of ratio.

Uchiyama:　A1 sells preponderantly in 9 to 1. As for the superior type because it circulates the high-class AV equipment special channel on the center, with general circulation A1 is the majority. Very much, it is to have become the commodity whose popularity is high, but the specific part (the royal purple laser diode is not) by the fact that supply is late not be able to prepare necessary number, it sold out early, especially early fall a state where it does not have the article in the shop front continuing, it put away.

　Originally, after XA1 and A1, from the fall to XA2 and A2 in the plan which is transferred, as for the 1st generation model favorably according to expectation it is to be able to sell, but as for opportunity loss you think because the 2nd generation machine is late somewhat that it was.

- - Last year, the HD DVD player no stand, it probably is to be sold?

Uchiyama:　70,000 unit it is shipping DVD player altogether HD last year was sold. Being the cell through, it probably is the extent which exceeds 60,000. It does not produce the number classified by type, but after entering into the 2nd generation, as for demand is more favorable. Half of the amount which last year sold is the 2nd generation player. Especially, after being December, being favorable, it could sell considerable number. I cannot say who told me but it was a person who was in position to reliably know the exact Toshiba sales numbers. That was my impression that it was implied that it was a translation or interview question problem.

DVD Empire figures just went up. 20th March 2007.

Blu-ray 75.56% HD-DVD 24.44%

Ratio 3:1 :D

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365057684065

DVD Empire figures just went up. 20th March 2007.

Blu-ray 75.56% HD-DVD 24.44%

Ratio 3:1 :D

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365057684065

Look again!!

71.23% vs. 28.77%

~Alan

They've put last weeks figures where this weeks should be, because last week BD was at 71%. I doubt the numbers would go down this week with the release of Casino Royale.

They've put last weeks figures where this weeks should be, because last week BD was at 71%. I doubt the numbers would go down this week with the release of Casino Royale.

DOH!!!

~Alan

Icemage,

I just re-read this, and have a couple of questions just to help me understand things here. I am not criticising, or denigrating you or your model in any way, but rather, I am trying to understand how the model works, and how the numbers are derived.

I'll explain how my model works, and you'll see why I think the numbers are strange.

I take the assumed values from the yellow boxes (1/1/07) and increase by a multiple of the weekly YTD values for both formats until I reach the reported SI value.

Where did the assumed values come from? On what basis did you make your assumptions.

Since the projection is a function of ratios and not raw numbers, the size of the numbers estimated on 1/1/07 is irrelavent to what Home Media Magazine is reporting from Nielsen. What matters is the ratio of BD to HD.

However, in some respects your initial volume estimate is relevant to speak of the health of both formats. If your absolute numbers are off, yes the ratio may show BD outselling HD but that may not mean much in the grand scheme of things. There is a big difference if the numbers are 100K vs. 50K per week or 25K vs. 12.5K per week.

If you have a copy of my spreadsheet you can see this yourself; plug in any numbers in the yellow boxes that match the same 64% ratio on 1/1/07 and you'll see that the calculated weekly percentages don't budge.

Well, that isnt surprising since your 64% ratio doesnt change.

Case A
The first possibility is that our estimate of the decrease is "signficantly off" with respect to the scale of the numbers. That would mean that our usage of Vito Montado's numbers is flawed, and that his numbers only happened to match Nielsen's in ratio that week (this similarity is what prompted me to use his numbers for projection in the first place).

Possibly, but that would be a mighty strange coincidence - that the numbers he quoted were ONLY good for one week.

Case B
The second possibility is that our estimate of the weekly sales ratios is "significantly off". If this is the case, then the only source of error would be our assumed values from 1/1/07 if we assume the Nielsen data provided is accurate (and we have no reason to believe they are not being reported incorrectly).

Here is where I am confused. Normally in any math model there are successive iterations of the model that are checked against objective data. Parameter values are then adjusted to minimize the variance to the data to improve the model. I may have missed something, but how is your model verified here? I mean down below, you have a constant assumption that BD has 64% of sales since inception. How do you know that hasnt changed?

Case C
It is possible that our ratio of SI assumed on 1/1/07 is wrong. I did some experimenting and found that, as the relative SI of BD gets smaller, the relative weekly sales ratios of BD to HD on 3/11 shift in the opposite direction.

Our current assumption is that BD had 64% of the sales since inception of HD on 1/1/07.

Why? Why do you assume a static sales ratio? Where is the verification of the ratio?

Note that the weekly numbers don't make a lot of sense in either of the two extreme cases above, so I don't really think either one is representative, but... something's got to give.

I am not criticisizing you, nor am I somehow denigrating your work, as you have done a lot of work, and put in a lot of effort, and the output is impressive, but when you say something has to give, have you considered that maybe the model is wrong?

As to the HD DVD drop. Does anyone remember when the BB give away was? If it occured that week, one could assume that people buying the player wouldnt buy any titles for awhile, since they got 4 free immediately, and then 5 more with the mail in offer from Toshiba.
fozziwig mentioned something about this, a few pages back and I agreed. Still do. Certainly seems logical, anyway.

Rio, aren't you fluent in Japanese?

Can you translate this bolder part better:

Google robo translation:Ahh. Once again? I already posted exactly same portion of that article one month ago, directed to you.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9689029&&#post9689029
Thats not how I read that translation of the interview with the Mr. Uchiyama, Toshiba , VP of Toshiba America. I can't find it now. Do you have the link?

All the various reports considered that I have read, still support 60-70,000 1st generation units shipped and sold in 2006. I beleive I saw that article but the translation was rough.Do you have better translated report which does not conflict against other reports you have read, or do you speak Japanese better than me?

Here is the original Japanese article:
http://plusd.itmedia.co.jp/lifestyle/articles/0701/13/news001_3.html

――昨年、HD DVDプレーヤーは何台販売されたのでしょう？

内山氏：　昨年販売したHD DVDプレーヤー全体で7万台出荷しています。セルスルーで6万を超えるぐらいでしょう。機種別の数字は出していませんが、第2 世代に入ってからの方が売れ行きは好調です。昨年販売した分の半分は第2世代プレーヤーです。特に12月になってからは好調でか なりの数が売れました。
My translation:
-- How many HD DVD players were sold last year?

Uchiyama: We shipped 70,000 units last year in all of HD DVD players. Probably over 60,000 via sell through. We don't have actual numbers for each product type, but sales of 2nd generation is better (than 1st gen.). About half of the sales in last year was 2nd gen. players, especially in December, there was favorable sales and many players were sold.
Google machine translation:
70,000 unit it is shipping DVD player altogether HD last year was sold. Being the cell through, it probably is the extent which exceeds 60,000. It does not produce the number classified by type, but after entering into the 2nd generation, as for demand is more favorable. Half of the amount which last year sold is the 2nd generation player. Especially, after being December, being favorable, it could sell considerable number.

I cannot say who told me but it was a person who was in position to reliably know the exact Toshiba sales numbers. That was my impression that it was implied that it was a translation or interview question problem.Interviewer's question sounds very clear to me, as well as Uchiyama-san's answer. So, problem is which person -- a VP of Toshiba America, or a certain person who told you secret information -- we should rely on.

BTW, there are another numbers around CES -- 175k for all of HD DVD related products world wide (standalone, Xbox360 add-on and PC drives come with software player), 92k add-ons for US only. Considering those numbers, it's little bit difficult to consider that 200,000 number is solely for standalone players.

Icemage,

I just re-read this, and have a couple of questions just to help me understand things here. I am not criticising, or denigrating you or your model in any way, but rather, I am trying to understand how the model works, and how the numbers are derived.

Where did the assumed values come from? On what basis did you make your assumptions.
The assumed values took the known "clean" values of SI on 1/21 and 1/28 to arrive at a per-week differential of 5.46%. Since we know that the rate of SI change should degrade over time, the estimation is walked backwards at a slightly higher rate over the previous three weeks and placed at a tentative -18.30% from the 1/21 figure, leaving us at 64.00% (estimated). I did not make the decision for this; I believe nataraj did the initial calculation. I am simply expanding on it as I generally agree with the methodology.

It is possible that the sales during this period were different, or volumes were much different, but I find that this estimate really gives HD DVD the benefit of the doubt; Blu-ray SI could actually be lower than what we have projected. Before you jump in and say this is "obviously" what should be assumed, please wait until I finish my explanation to see why this actually isn't a good thing for HD DVD's numbers.

However, in some respects your initial volume estimate is relevant to speak of the health of both formats. If your absolute numbers are off, yes the ratio may show BD outselling HD but that may not mean much in the grand scheme of things. There is a big difference if the numbers are 100K vs. 50K per week or 25K vs. 12.5K per week.
Agreed, the big picture is lost when we don't know the relative scale. Since Nielsen/VideoScan does not claim to cover the entire industry, however, that's what we're left with regardless of what numbers we use. Nielsen is good for tracking trends, but not so good for tracking absolute sales volume since there's no way to know how many sales escape their notice from retailers that don't work with them.


Well, that isnt surprising since your 64% ratio doesnt change.
Yes, precisely my point.


Possibly, but that would be a mighty strange coincidence - that the numbers he quoted were ONLY good for one week.
Vito Mandato said himself what time period his numbers were pertinent to. I modelled my projection as a curve of best fit against his figures, but in reality all I did with his data was set a scale for my numbers. Using his values does NOT change the ratios of sales in any way as reported by Nielsen, nor do they change the ratios in the projections.

Here is where I am confused. Normally in any math model there are successive iterations of the model that are checked against objective data. Parameter values are then adjusted to minimize the variance to the data to improve the model. I may have missed something, but how is your model verified here? I mean down below, you have a constant assumption that BD has 64% of sales since inception. How do you know that hasnt changed?
The 64.00% estimate is an assumed value for the past. It's not a moving target in the calculations.

If I give you five apples today, then tomorrow you ask how many apples I gave you, the answer will still be five.

That's why these calculations work, and it's why, when you look at my weekly projections for sales percentages, they match PC Magazine's reports on the Nielsen weekly values almost precisely - despite the fact that I know and assume nothing about the actual weekly values.

Case C

Why? Why do you assume a static sales ratio? Where is the verification of the ratio?
See above. My experimentation was to verify what happens to the data projection on 3/11 when I change the assumption from 64.00% to 50.00% or to 70.00%.

In short, I looked at the range of probable values and did an analysis against it.

I am not criticisizing you, nor am I somehow denigrating your work, as you have done a lot of work, and put in a lot of effort, and the output is impressive, but when you say something has to give, have you considered that maybe the model is wrong?
The model is not wrong unless Nielsen is internally inconsistent, and even there it isn't heavily dependent on internal consistency. The maximum exposure that my projections have to variations and errors in the Nielsen numbers is + 1 week. That is, if there is an error in the 2/18/07 figures, that error is not detectable (it self-corrects) by 3/4/07 since the only dependence is on the previous week's data, and the assumed value on 1/1/07.

Please bear in mind that when I (and nataraj) do our projections, the ratios of sales week-to-week are not directly impacted by the numbers we use as the assumed values on 1/1/07. The only thing that affects them is the ratio of BD SI to HD SI on 1/1/07, and even there, stretching the assumption in even the most favorable light puts HD DVD behind in weekly sales 3.5 to 1.

DVD Empire figures just went up. 20th March 2007.

Blu-ray 75.56% HD-DVD 24.44%

Ratio 3:1 :D

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365057684065

Week of Mar20th means STARTING mar20th. That's really just one day of sales. Doesn't mean much. You have to look at Week of MAR 13th to get the last week sales.

Anyone else notice that dvdempire is trying to heat up sales by riling up hd dvd fans with this article?
Blu-ray Winning The Format War? (http://hidefdvdempire.blogspot.com/2007/03/its-time-for-hd-dvd-to-rally-troops.html)

Now that's smart marketing, trying to squeeze a few more bucks off people. ;)

Icemage,

Blu-ray SI could actually be lower than what we have projected. Before you jump in and say this is "obviously" what should be assumed

Why would I say that your SI should obviously be changed. I simply asked where the assumption came from, and you provided a rational answer. Case closed.

The 64.00% estimate is an assumed value for the past. It's not a moving target in the calculations

Ok, it just wasnt clear that these were assumed values for the past.

Vito Mandato said himself what time period his numbers were pertinent to. I modelled my projection as a curve of best fit against his figures, but in reality all I did with his data was set a scale for my numbers. Using his values does NOT change the ratios of sales in any way as reported by Nielsen, nor do they change the ratios in the projections.

No it wouldnt change the ratios, but it would change the absolute numbers you derive. Hence, some of the possible confusion in the most recent numbers.

That's why these calculations work, and it's why, when you look at my weekly projections for sales percentages

Yes, it works for percentages, but it may not be that accurate for the absolute numbers.

See above. My experimentation was to verify what happens to the data projection on 3/11 when I change the assumption from 64.00% to 50.00% or to 70.00%.

I understood your experimentation, but all you did was change one static number for another. My question is about the assumption of a static percentage. In other words, what happens if the percentage changes from week to week?

I understood your experimentation, but all you did was change one static number for another. My question is about the assumption of a static percentage. In other words, what happens if the percentage changes from week to week?
You just got done agreeing that the 1/1/07 is a fixed assumption in the past, so why are you talking about week-to-week changes again?

I make no assumptions about the ratios week to week. Those numbers are provided in their entirety by Nielsen.

Where did the assumed values come from? On what basis did you make your assumptions.

The assumed numbers for 1/1/07 are such that they give figures which are close to some of the publicly disclosed numbers. The latest assumed figures are such that we get close to what Paramount exec said in one of the seminars. If you go back and see my estimates, you will see different starting numbers based on publicly stated numbers at that time.

The ratio of HD & BD at 1/1/07 is an estimation based on the SI ratio progression that we have over several weeks. Ofcourse I played around with a lot of numbers - but settled on this since it gave most plausible looking numbers.

Ofcourse there is nothing sacrosact about our assumptions. I think you can play around with the initial numbers and you get different numbers. If anyone has an idea what the numbers are for any given week - we can use that instead.


However, in some respects your initial volume estimate is relevant to speak of the health of both formats. If your absolute numbers are off, yes the ratio may show BD outselling HD but that may not mean much in the grand scheme of things. There is a big difference if the numbers are 100K vs. 50K per week or 25K vs. 12.5K per week.

This is correct. But if various public pronouncements are any indication our numbers should be in the same ball park. And we can draw very valid conclusions about the size and relevance of the HD market.

Here is where I am confused. Normally in any math model there are successive iterations of the model that are checked against objective data. Parameter values are then adjusted to minimize the variance to the data to improve the model. I may have missed something, but how is your model verified here? I mean down below, you have a constant assumption that BD has 64% of sales since inception. How do you know that hasnt changed?

This is not correct. Only the initial numbers are assumed. Everything else has no guess work in it. It is based purely on math. Every week you get two unknowns and two simultaneous equations to solve.

BTW, my calculations and Ice's are very different (in the sense, we have got our calculations independantly) - but get the same numbers. This validates that our calculations are correct. We are using the same initial numbers as to not confuse everyone.

As I said, if anyone knows the numbers (from nielsen, not somewhere else) for a week we can use that to derive everything else.

Icemage,

all well and good, but then could you explain why the models both predict significant drops that apparently didnt occur unless you are assuming that Mondantos numbers were wrong.

Icemage,

all well and good, but then could you explain why the models both predict significant drops that apparently didnt occur unless you are assuming that Mondantos numbers were wrong.
What do Montado's numbers have to do with the price of Lima beans in Peru?

Whether Vito Montado was right or not, the ratios expressed in both my projection and nataraj's hinge only on the ratio of SI assumed for 1/1/07.

If we assume a lower Blu-ray value, then the ratio of sales for 2007 must necessarily increase to compensate to reach the published Nielsen values. That's why I got a 7:1 ratio when I dropped the Blu-ray assumed SI to 50% on 1/1/07.

If we assume that Blu-ray did a lot of catching up in the waning weeks of 2006 and came up to 75% of HD DVD's SI, the numbers compute out to a ratio of 3.5:1 in favor of Blu-ray. This is the best-case scenario for HD DVD if the numbers for 3/4 and 3/11 are accurate.

The drop in total sales volume itself is indisputable if the Nielsen numbers are correct. No matter what numbers we assume for 1/1/07, the volumes on 3/11/07 are drastically lower. There are no scenarios where this is not true if the numbers are consistent. I've tried everything to explain it, but it comes down to two things and two things only - either the numbers are just wrong, which Home Media Magazine denies emphatically, or there really was a huge drop in sales volume.

icemage,

Whether Vito Montado was right or not, the ratios expressed in both my projection and nataraj's hinge only on the ratio of SI assumed for 1/1/07.

we arent talking about ratios, we are talking absolute numbers, and we are doing so because people (myself included) got their knickers in a twist based on YOUR numbers and supposed drop. ASJ, the guru himself, declared HD DVD dead because of the 6K predicted units sold in the week. As such, the numbers matter, not the ratios.

The drop in total sales volume itself is indisputable if the Nielsen numbers are correct.

Here is the thing, Grubert says his sources say that the your predicted sales drop is significantly off the mark. You can find the quote around here if you look. Hence, something is wrong - either Grubert's sources who say the predicted drop is off the mark, or something about your model is wrong to make the prediction.

here you go, Darin said this in paraphrasing Grubert,

Why are you using a 50% drop for BD when you agree later that we were told that our numbers are off significantly? What Grubert has said is that the "03/11 YTD: 67.9/32.1 SI: 52.8/47.2" includes Amazon.

Numbers don't lie, George.

People might, but numbers do not. I trust my math.

Home Media Magazine has been very gracious in allowing us to retrieve and confirm data through them, and for that I am very thankful, but their cryptic remark does nothing to alter the laws of mathematics. They may indeed be looking at some real numbers that disagree with my conclusions, but if so, then one or more of the numbers I am using is wrong - and all of my weekly data comes from them.

Hips don't lie! Aiyee, Shakira! :D

Icemage,

First, I really do appreciate everything you and Natraj have done. I really do. Both of you have had a significant impact on this forum. I do respect you both.

On the other hand, there is a discrepancy that needs to be accounted for. Your model predicts one thing, and there is an indication that that prediction might be wrong.

The laws of mathematics are what they are. However, having spent over 20 years as a researcher doing lots and lots and lots of statistics, I know that the math can give different answers with different numbers and different assumptions.

It may be that Gruberts sources are using different numbers from different sources, since you seem to use Nielsen, or they may be wrong, or one of your numbers may be wrong but your model started a bit of a controversy and it behooves all of us to get the truth.

Numbers don't lie? Numbers provided by humans are wrong all the time. So yes, people provide misleading numbers all the time. In fact when I did my masters thesis, I found that numbers provided to and by the IMF for many countries were wrong or suspect....so that's not even something to discuss. Numbers do lie and are incorrect and real world examples are there everywhere. I say this based on my 2 years experience on Wall Street and now 8 years in software implementation, sales, marketing and product management (plus my Masters thesis where I examined monetary and fiscal policy and their impact on econ. growth and currency volatility). I analyze data for a living and it is my passion - even more than AV and my primary interest in the format wars is from a business case study and economics perspective, more than just the technology themselves.

On the other hand, I'd say the marhematics doesn't lie. 2 +2 = 4 always. But the problem is whether the right number is 2 or 3.

plazman,

Numbers don't lie? Numbers provided by humans are wrong all the time

The numbers dont lie, but the humans providing the numbers do.

On the other hand, I'd say the marhematics doesn't lie. 2 +2 = 4 always. But the problem is whether the right number is 2 or 3.

and that is the crux of the entire matter right there.

George,

Now that you understand what we are doing, let us see if we can get to the bottom of this week's data.

This is what Grubert posted.

Ms McCourt said that the data for the week of March 11 is based on first alert estimates from Nielsen and that the data for the previous week is adjusted on Wednesday to reflect the entire reporting sample, although to date the adjustments have not been measurable.

However, those corrections are not incorporated to published sales ratios, so are carried over to next week's data.

The question is, what do they consider measurable ? Would they consider a change from say 100:89.25 to 100:89.28 measurable ? Do they mean by "measurable" significant ... since obviously the change is measurable when the sale changes by even one, though not within 2 decimal places.

The reason I'm talking about this is - let us say last week's YTD, instead of being 100 : 48.73 actually was 100 : 48.1 after wednesdays correction (and similar correction to SI ratios). You get quite a significantly different set of numbers for this week. Overall the numbers look to have changed insignificantly - but can change a week's numbers quite a bit.

That is why I think if we give it one more week, things should even out.

It may be that Gruberts sources are using different numbers from different sources, since you seem to use Nielsen, or they may be wrong, or one of your numbers may be wrong but your model started a bit of a controversy and it behooves all of us to get the truth.

All of us are using the same ratios that Home Media Magazine publishes. They get the data from Nielsen. Grubert's sources are Home Media Magazine's people.

The point I'm making is that Home Media Magazine says our conclusions are wrong. However, our conclusions are drawn directly from the numbers they themselves have published. We've made one single assumption about the SI ratios on 1/1/07, and I've gone to the trouble of projecting the reasonable range of values, and no matter what I do with that assumptions, the numbers still sink like a stone on 3/11.

The problems aren't in the mathematics; if they were, nataraj and I wouldn't be getting the exact same values despite wildly (and I do mean wildly different methods of arriving at an answer - we compared notes after the fact and nataraj goes about calculating the numbers in a much different fashion).

The problem is the numbers themselves. Either the numbers reported are correct, and sales really did tank. Or they are misreported, and Nielsen is wrong somewhere.

BTW, since I've not posted this before, here are my formulas. This is got purely by solving the simultaneous equations we have for a week.

BDWeekly=(HDSI-mBDSI+nBDYTD-HDYTD)/(m-n)

Where : m is the HD DVD SI market share devided by BD SI market share for this week

and

n is the HD DVD YTD market share devided by BD YTD market share for this week

SI and YTD numbers for HD and BD should be taken as of last week.

Icemage,

The problems aren't in the mathematics; if they were, nataraj and I wouldn't be getting the exact same values despite wildly (and I do mean wildly different methods of arriving at an answer - we compared notes after the fact and nataraj goes about calculating the numbers in a much different fashion).

The problem is the numbers themselves. Either the numbers reported are correct, and sales really did tank. Or they are misreported, and Nielsen is wrong somewhere.

We are in complete agreement.

The reason I'm talking about this is - let us say last week's YTD, instead of being 100 : 48.73 actually was 100 : 48.1 after wednesdays correction (and similar correction to SI ratios). You get quite a significantly different set of numbers for this week. Overall the numbers look to have changed insignificantly - but can change a week's numbers quite a bit.

That seems reasonable, but under those conditions, should weekly numbers be projected, or would you be better off taking a longer time frame to even things out.

That seems reasonable, but under those conditions, should weekly numbers be projected, or would you be better off taking a longer time frame to even things out.

Curiosity killed the cat ... but ...

No way we can refrain from projecting weekly numbers :D

Curiosity killed the cat ... but ...

No way we can refrain from projecting weekly numbers :D
It should also be noted that PC Magazine is looking at the same exact data that Home Media Magazine is, and their actual weekly ratio numbers very closely mirrors our projected numbers. This tells me that we're on the right track, even if we're not 100% exact.

I suspect the differences have to do with it being First Alert data. As nataraj mentioned above (and as I illustrated several pages back) even a 1% difference in, say, the reporting of SI would taint the numbers.

It should also be noted that PC Magazine is looking at the same exact data that Home Media Magazine is, and their actual weekly ratio numbers very closely mirrors our projected numbers. This tells me that we're on the right track, even if we're not 100% exact.

I suspect the differences have to do with it being First Alert data. As nataraj mentioned above (and as I illustrated several pages back) even a 1% difference in, say, the reporting of SI would taint the numbers.

Would it 'taint the range of something that you and nataraj had inferred earlier of [3.5, 7]:1?

Would it 'taint the range of something that you and nataraj had inferred earlier of [3.5, 7]:1?
I believe that range of [3.5, 7] : 1 should be an accurate representation of the possibilities if the numbers were not adjusted on 3/4.

All of us are using the same ratios that Home Media Magazine publishes. They get the data from Nielsen. Grubert's sources are Home Media Magazine's people.

Exactly. And algebra is impartial.

If the [3.5,7]:1 sales ratio is real, then we should see something more concrete friday, If Friday numbers are also in that range, I expect the bda people would probably have something witty to say.

Note however, if the units did tank for both, that would be a bigger problem for highdef in general, and that would be the real tragedy here. Given the buying activity in amazon, I seriously doubt that is the case, especially if the rumours of CR selling 100K is true, which we are about to find out.

Something just occurred to me. What if the First Alert data is basically a compilation of those retailers who can get close-to-realtime data to Nielsen (i.e. e-tailers like Amazon)? If Nielsen feels it's a representative sample, perhaps they publish those early results as First Alert (sort of like a voting exit poll). This would leave the SI figures under-represented since not all sources are reporting - and the bellweather e-tailers would be the first to see a trend and exaggerate it, since online buyers tend to react faster to market shift?

One week dont show a trend. If people bought alot of HD movies, they are maybe more keen to watch them before they buy any new. Of course if it stays likes this for 2 months then it could show something.

With so smal numbers like we have. It doesnt take much for statistic to take high and low peaks.

If people bought alot of HD movies, they are maybe more keen to watch them before they buy any new.

Even at 25K for HD DVD - only a tenth of the owners are buying a movie a week. So, your logic doesn't sound persuasive.

Even at 25K for HD DVD - only a tenth of the owners are buying a movie a week. So, your logic doesn't sound persuasive.

Just a theory...


But there could be hundreds of reason why the sales dip a certain week. Not enough data to draw any conclusion.

When is payday over the atlantic?

Something just occurred to me. What if the First Alert data is basically a compilation of those retailers who can get close-to-realtime data to Nielsen (i.e. e-tailers like Amazon)? If Nielsen feels it's a representative sample, perhaps they publish those early results as First Alert (sort of like a voting exit poll). This would leave the SI figures under-represented since not all sources are reporting - and the bellweather e-tailers would be the first to see a trend and exaggerate it, since online buyers tend to react faster to market shift?

The numbers should be adjusted to represent the entire market based on whatever data they have compiled. So, if a typical B&M store reports sales 50% of what Amazon reports for Blu-ray and 150% of what they report for HD DVD on a weekly basis, that should be taken into consideration when a total number is computed.

The numbers should be adjusted to represent the entire market based on whatever data they have compiled. So, if a typical B&M store reports sales 50% of what Amazon reports for Blu-ray and 150% of what they report for HD DVD on a weekly basis, that should be taken into consideration when a total number is computed.
...but we have people arguing that Nielsen does not project for the rest of the market. What if their First Alert data really is a representative "snapshot" of what they're seeing, minus the pending sales figures from their non-immediate reponders.

I'd think that would be a pretty good explanation of why the SI numbers haven't shifted as much as expected (that and perhaps a larger than expected correction for 3/4 as late returns came in?).

...but we have people arguing that Nielsen does not project for the rest of the market. What if their First Alert data really is a representative "snapshot" of what they're seeing, minus the pending sales figures from their non-immediate reponders.

I'd think that would be a pretty good explanation of why the SI numbers haven't shifted as much as expected (that and perhaps a larger than expected correction for 3/4 as late returns came in?).

If Nielsen doesn't project for the rest of the market, than what is their purpose? Also, we are not seeing much variation from our regular Nielson reports, which were not titled as "First Alert".

Here is some antecdotal information for you:

A study was done to see how representative Bookscan is of the entire book market. For best sellers and major releases (stuff carried in every store, everywhere), Nielsen was found to catch 65%-75% of the market. However, for non-mainstream books, it only captured 25% of the market.

If DVD is mainstream, and HD formats are the niche products, could a similar trnd be in effect (I've been told by a weally big studio rep that this is the case)? What does that mean for all this analysis you guys slave away at?

Discuss.

What does that mean for all this analysis you guys slave away at?

Discuss.

BD is winning, but HD DVDers make us prove it over and over.

Something just occurred to me. What if the First Alert data is basically a compilation of those retailers who can get close-to-realtime data to Nielsen (i.e. e-tailers like Amazon)? If Nielsen feels it's a representative sample, perhaps they publish those early results as First Alert (sort of like a voting exit poll). This would leave the SI figures under-represented since not all sources are reporting - and the bellweather e-tailers would be the first to see a trend and exaggerate it, since online buyers tend to react faster to market shift? That is entirely possible.

We are looking at these numbers and the available Amazon numbers in a way that no one had anticipated.

There could be all sorts of unintended consequences and artifacts inherent in our using the week by week stats in this horse race and projection kinda way, and we may be by passing some of their data corrections which might lead to creeping or rounding errors. It's also possible our SI calculations are biased downward.

Don't get me wrong, I think the work here is excellent and the best information we have, but we are using the data in a way that it wasn't intended to be used so some unknown adjustments or corrections may be overlooked or may not available.

All of our tracking numbers we are using here come out of the final numbers? Or our the weekly HMM published numbers the first alert data and we never see the final numbers and know of the adjustments?

Anyway Grubert , Icemage and Nataraj and any one else crunching and playing with these numbers, thanks for the great work. :cool:

Here is some antecdotal information for you:

A study was done to see how representative Bookscan is of the entire book market. For best sellers and major releases (stuff carried in every store, everywhere), Nielsen was found to catch 65%-75% of the market. However, for non-mainstream books, it only captured 25% of the market.

If DVD is mainstream, and HD formats are the niche products, could a similar trnd be in effect (I've been told by a weally big studio rep that this is the case)? What does that mean for all this analysis you guys slave away at?

Discuss. Yes. Nielson and any tracking system is much more volatile and inacccurate for niche products than high volume ones. The data will get more accurate with time, but its much more inaccurate than with the higher volume well established DVD market.

Thath being said, its obviously capturing the macro trend that Blu-ray is significantly outselling HD DVD at this point.

Then, clearly, I was not refering to you. Just the ones who do have something to do with that "dumb idea".

And Plaz, yes, maybe a few jumped the gun on March 15th!
no, i mean it. thanks for not lumping the normal hd dvd owners with the fanboys who will run out and buy every crappy hd dvd movie there is just to say that they have so many hd dvd movies and try to get lame sales up.

Yes. Nielson and any tracking system is much more volatile and inacccurate for niche products than high volume ones.I could see niche books having more problem from being carried at smaller bookstores that don't get counted. Even though HD DVD and Blu-ray are niche, they may actually be getting carried by places that get counted more than a less niche product. Especially if Best Buy, Amazon, and Frys are all counted in the Nielsen numbers.

Unless somebody wants to claim that the sales haven't been at 2:1 or higher for Blu-ray this year, then claiming that HD DVD has been selling 500k discs per month would mean 1 million a month or more for Blu-ray. Which would pretty much go against claims of low attach rates for the PS3.

--Darin

Unless somebody wants to claim that the sales haven't been at 2:1 or higher for Blu-ray this year, then claiming that HD DVD has been selling 500k discs per month would mean 1 million a month or more for Blu-ray. Which would pretty much go against claims of low attach rates for the PS3.

--Darin
Yes...

Yes it would. ;)