HD DVD and Blu-ray are carried in a larger number of place than niche books but the principle is the same.

Nielson is using their DVD sales tracking system for HD DVD and Blu-ray sales. That makes sense but in these early stages there will be volatility and inaccuracy based on the relative volumes involved.

Because the volumes are 1/100th of DVD sales the methodology and procedures used will have more variance and will be susceptible to more errors. Those artifacts will tend to even out over the long term, or will be corrected for, but were using them as horse race tracking on a week by week basis, with low sales volumes and low numbers of releases so their just is a lot more variation possible than with the higher volume DVD sales figures.

BTW, I personally don't believe HD DVD is selling 500K discs per month this year yet.

I could see niche books having more problem from being carried at smaller bookstores that don't get counted. Even though HD DVD and Blu-ray are niche, they may actually be getting carried by places that get counted more than a less niche product. Especially if Best Buy, Amazon, and Frys are all counted in the Nielsen numbers.

Unless somebody wants to claim that the sales haven't been at 2:1 or higher for Blu-ray this year, then claiming that HD DVD has been selling 500k discs per month would mean 1 million a month or more for Blu-ray. Which would pretty much go against claims of low attach rates for the PS3.

--Darin

I agree that Nielsen is likely catching only a fraction of actual BD sales as well.

However, the true performance of the two formats can only be determined by weally big studios that sell many titles on both formats.

Who has the sales lead, or what the real ratio (I'll claim that it wasn't really 2:1 during the time Nielsen reported it as 2:1) between the two formats is likely not represented by Nielsens small sampling.

Hogwash.

HD DVD and Blu-ray are carried in a larger number of place than niche books but the principle is the same.

Nielson is using their DVD sales tracking system for HD DVD and Blu-ray sales. That makes sense but in these early stages there will be volatility and inaccuracy based on the relative volumes involved.

Because the volumes are 1/100th of DVD sales the methodology and procedures used will have more variance and will be susceptible to more errors. Those artifacts will tend to even out over the long term, or will be corrected for, but were using them as horse race tracking on a week by week basis, with low sales volumes and low numbers of releases so their just is a lot more variation possible than with the higher volume DVD sales figures.

BTW, I personally don't believe HD DVD is selling 500K discs per month this year yet.

Why wouldn't you belive ~500k per month? Do you realize that in North America, DVD is selling over 50 million units a month (closer to 60 million). Do you not believe that on a monthly basis, HD-DVD is capable of selling around 1% (probably closer to .85%) the volume of DVD at this point?

wnorris,

The answer to your question is no. In a recent article from a conference, it was stated that both formats combined account for less than 0.5% of sales. It was also stated that iTunes sold more movies and TV shows than both formats combined. These are niche formats right now.

wnorris,

The answer to your question is no. In a recent article from a conference, it was stated that both formats combined account for less than 0.5% of sales. It was also stated that iTunes sold more movies and TV shows than both formats combined. These are niche formats right now.


Which conference was that?

wnorris,

The answer to your question is no. In a recent article from a conference, it was stated that both formats combined account for less than 0.5% of sales. It was also stated that iTunes sold more movies and TV shows than both formats combined. These are niche formats right now.


I still can't believe that you guys find it hard to believe that someone would shell out between $200-$500 for a piece of hardware that performs one function, and then would purchase little to no software for the device. Why does buying one movie every other week per piece of hardware seem so far fetched to you guys? Do you really think people even shelled out $200 for a 360 addon and they just repeatedly watch King Kong over and over? And the folks who paid $800-$1000 for an XA2 are even more serious about movie viewing.

Come one guys, step out of the artificial world of Nielsen reports and start using some common sense...

Come one guys, step out of the artificial world of Nielsen reports and start using some common sense...Did a studio insider tell you that HD DVD was selling 500k discs per month this year? Did you make it up based on some niche books only getting logged at 25% of sales by Nielsen? What is your claim that the ratio is better for HD DVD than Nielsen has reported based on? Is that part of that "common sense" thing you claim to be using?

--Darin

Anybody remember what the numbers were from Warner for projections for 2007 and the multiple from 2006? My memory is that they said $600 million for 2007, which would be 40x 2006. That would make 2006 about $15 million, which works out to 600k discs at $25 or 750k at $20. Anybody else have the actual figures if they were different?

--Darin

No sir. It is me (among others) who is putting in hours and hours to try to shed some light on the misinformationfest that is the format war. I have fought for perfect information for more than a year.

When other people say that "Nielsen is likely catching only a fraction of actual BD sales as well," without any proof whatsoever, they are doing a disservice to this thread and this forum, and I fear those people might be doing so just because they don't like the data they have in front of them.

amazon is counted. So are most retailers, except Wal-Mart and Sam's Club. Are you implying that the sales ratio is much different in Wal-Mart than in the rest of the retailers?


How do you know who is counted by Nielsen? My claims are based on studio provided information. You know, the people who would actually know exactly how much of their products are sold, as oppsed to a company that provides inaccurate polling of niche markets. I know Nielsen is not catching all the BD sales, but I have no information regarding by how much they are missing the mark. I know that for HD-DVD, they are catching around 25-30% of the pie. It could be they are only catching 25-30% of BD, or they could be catching 60%. I don't know, and their is enough margin to actually swing the YTD lead to HD-DVD (I don't know if this is the case or not, but it is a possibility). This means all these claims of "BD leads 2:1" are about as accurate as the claims "Al Gore defeats George Bush".

All I know is that HD-DVD is averaging ~2 discs per player per month for 2007. This is a huge difference from what Nielsen reports, which tells me that no one (or very few) knows the real picture, no one will be able to guess or calculate it, and the picture may be very different than what you guys have let yourself be conned into believing.

Darin,

Based on an expected install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007, the HD DVD Promotional Group estimates HD DVD movie title sales to exceed $600 million in North America for 2007. This is more than 40 times the revenue accrued in 2006 by the format.

http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect.com/_pdf/010707_hddvd_ces_2007.pdf

I know that for HD-DVD, they are catching around 25-30% of the pie.

Proof? Link?

All I know is that HD-DVD is averaging ~2 discs per player per month for 2007.

Proof? Link?

I still can't believe that you guys find it hard to believe that someone would shell out between $200-$500 for a piece of hardware that performs one function, and then would purchase little to no software for the device. Why does buying one movie every other week per piece of hardware seem so far fetched to you guys? Do you really think people even shelled out $200 for a 360 addon and they just repeatedly watch King Kong over and over? And the folks who paid $800-$1000 for an XA2 are even more serious about movie viewing.

Come one guys, step out of the artificial world of Nielsen reports and start using some common sense...
Common sense tells me that there's a reason why Blockbuster and Netflix do such a huge business.

One movie every other week? Are you being serious or sarcastic? Only movie enthusiasts buy movies at that sort of a clip when we're talking the sort of prices that high definition discs cost in general.

We have evidence even on this forum that there are people just renting movies until the format war ends and they can feel confident when investing in media.

If total overall sales volume were 500,000 per month for HD DVD, and Blu-ray outsells HD DVD by 2:1 for 1 million discs per month, you'd think at least one title would have hit 100,000 copies by now and the studio that managed such numbers would be shouting it from the rooftops, but that's not what we have.

Common sense tells me that there's a reason why Blockbuster and Netflix do such a huge business.

One movie every other week? Are you being serious or sarcastic? Only movie enthusiasts buy movies at that sort of a clip when we're talking the sort of prices that high definition discs cost in general.

We have evidence even on this forum that there are people just renting movies until the format war ends and they can feel confident when investing in media.

If total overall sales volume were 500,000 per month for HD DVD, and Blu-ray outsells HD DVD by 2:1 for 1 million discs per month, you'd think at least one title would have hit 100,000 copies by now and the studio that managed such numbers would be shouting it from the rooftops, but that's not what we have.

And for the most part, only movie enthusiasts own HD players at this point...

Anybody remember what the numbers were from Warner for projections for 2007 and the multiple from 2006? My memory is that they said $600 million for 2007, which would be 40x 2006. That would make 2006 about $15 million, which works out to 600k discs at $25 or 750k at $20. Anybody else have the actual figures if they were different?

--Darin

I remember that prediction. It was $600 million for HD-DVD and $400 for BD. This was predicted by Warner though, and not the promotions group as quoted elsewhere.

So do you stand by all of this experts opinion, or do you want to say that HD will be $600 million, but ignore the part about BD being $400 million. Based on the information you are referring to, the sales lead should be 1.5:1 in favor of HD-DVD.

Warner has talked to Paramount about Total HD and plans to talk to other studios to get industry support for the disc, Warner Home Video president Ron Sanders said after the presentation. The hope is that Total HD will convince Blu-ray-only studios, such as Disney and 20th Century Fox, and HD DVD-only Universal Studios to support both formats.

Sanders said it could become more difficult for studios to justify sticking to one format in the coming year with sales on each growing.

More than 9 million high-definition DVD devices, including game systems, are expected to be in homes this year, and “consumers are hungry for high-definition movies in both formats,” Sanders said. Warner estimates software sales will total $1 billion, with $600 million of that expected to come from HD DVD software sales.

Warner is projecting that revenue from Blu-ray software sales will reach just $400 million in 2007, even though the format will have 6.2 million players in the market. However, the majority of those will be PlayStation 3 game consoles, and Sanders said the studio has found that most units are being used for gaming.

Proof? Link?



Proof? Link?


Evidence that Amazon (or any other retailer you claim) is included in Nielsen.

Proof? Link?

Eividence that the numbers estimated in this forum are accurate based on comparisons with actual studio sales figures.

Proof? Link?

wnorris, as the author of the claims that "for HD-DVD, Nielsen is catching around 25-30% of the pie," and that "HD-DVD is averaging ~2 discs per player per month for 2007," the burden of proof is on you.

I remember that prediction. It was $600 million for HD-DVD and $400 for BD. This was predicted by Warner though, and not the promotions group as quoted elsewhere.

So do you stand by all of this experts opinion, or do you want to say that HD will be $600 million, but ignore the part about BD being $400 million. Based on the information you are referring to, the sales lead should be 1.5:1 in favor of HD-DVD.I don't believe their predictions are likely to have that much accuracy, just like their predictions from a year ago didn't come close to what happened. But what they claim about past performance should be based on actual events. Do you accept that the document on the lookandsoundofperfect site here:

http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect.com/_pdf/010707_hddvd_ces_2007.pdf
...the HD DVD Promotional Group estimates HD DVD movie title sales to exceed $600 million in North America for 2007. This is more than 40 times the revenue accrued in 2006 by the format.works out to about $15 million in sales for 2006? Since you claim 500k disc sales per month this year, how many do you think they sold in December and then all of 2006?

--Darin

Evidence that Amazon (or any other retailer you claim) is included in Nielsen.

Proof? Link?
I'm curious about this, as well.

Eividence that the numbers estimated in this forum are accurate based on comparisons with actual studio sales figures.

Proof? Link?
Unnecessary in the context of this thread, as the basic premise behind it is that Nielsen is a trustworthy and most importantly neutral information source, which is a rare commodity these days.

Rather than survive on hopes and dreams like yourself, there are those of us that would like to do something with the unbiased numbers we have available to us. You can't prove things that you don't have information for, but I think most people who aren't totally blinded by bias will note that every neutral indicator we have right now shows Blu-ray with a solid lead in sales. There isn't a single indicator showing HD DVD doing better or even equal right now; not even Toshiba's email from yesterday tried to claim this.

Why are you questioning our desire to arrive at the truth? Is it because you just don't like the message?

I will admit here that I own a PS3 and would like to see Blu-ray win, but unlike some of the partisans here, I do not let my bias influence my analysis of the numbers. If the numbers took a sudden downturn for Blu-ray, I will be the first person in line to congratulate HD DVD on making a comeback.

I'll put it plainly: It is not our fault if you don't like the results and conclusions drawn from the numbers we calculate in this thread. The figures and calculations, as you can clearly see, are untainted and unbiased except insofar as they may arrive so from Nielsen Media/VideoScan. If you don't believe my numbers (since I am a Blu-ray partisan), then trust nataraj's (who is pro-HD DVD). Our numbers are virtually identical, and differ only because we use slightly different methods of calculation.

I'm curious about this, as well.



I posted it a few pages back. The inclusion of amazon sales was confirmed personally by the associate publisher of Home Media Magazine in reply to a question I asked by email.

I posted it a few pages back. The inclusion of amazon sales was confirmed personally by the associate publisher of Home Media Magazine in reply to a question I asked by email.
Fair enough. Thanks, Grubert! :)

I hadn't seen that document from the HD DVD PRG before, but using their numbers:

$600M / 40 >= Total HD DVD revenue 2006

That means "total revenue for HD DVD in 2006" was less than or equal to $15 million.

At $20 per title average (and I'm being generous here) that's still less than 750,000 discs total for the whole year (probably worldwide).

My current estimate, based on Vito Montado's numbers, estimates HD DVD at 462,000 for 2006 for North America, which means my estimate at worst should be 61.6% of the total market. I happen to think my number is very close to reality, since the retail price of an HD DVD is higher than $20 average, and I also believe that number includes worldwide sales (for instance, we know that the UK had a bit over 8K discs sold in 2006).

Here is some antecdotal information for you:

A study was done to see how representative Bookscan is of the entire book market. For best sellers and major releases (stuff carried in every store, everywhere), Nielsen was found to catch 65%-75% of the market. However, for non-mainstream books, it only captured 25% of the market.

If DVD is mainstream, and HD formats are the niche products, could a similar trnd be in effect (I've been told by a weally big studio rep that this is the case)? What does that mean for all this analysis you guys slave away at?

Discuss.


How does a studio know what volume has sold? A studio supplies the disc's do they then go and research how many have sold from retailers?

Look at the stock numbers on Amazon 55,000 for Blu-ray and 13,000 for HD-DVD, a studio has supplied these but can't claim they are actually sold. Just like Sony with its number of "shipped" PS3's.

Supposedly, Casino Royale sold close to 100,000 blu-ray copies. What would that do to the sales ratio?

wnorris, as the author of the claims that "for HD-DVD, Nielsen is catching around 25-30% of the pie," and that "HD-DVD is averaging ~2 discs per player per month for 2007," the burden of proof is on you.

And you claim Amazon is included and that the Nielsen numbers are representative of actual sales, so let's see the proof.

Anybody remember what the numbers were from Warner for projections for 2007 and the multiple from 2006? My memory is that they said $600 million for 2007, which would be 40x 2006. That would make 2006 about $15 million, which works out to 600k discs at $25 or 750k at $20. Anybody else have the actual figures if they were different?

--Darin

It also means they also estimate 24 million (@$25 per disc) Hd-dvd disc sales for 2007. How does everyone think they will get there at 100k discs per month. Do you think in August the numbers will magically jump to 4-5 mil a month.

I don't think they will sell 24 mil, but I think about 15 mil appears tp be reasonable. 925,000 discs through the end of Feb will still require a big year end ramp up.

And you claim Amazon is included and that the Nielsen numbers are representative of actual sales, so let's see the proof.

Reversal-of-proof fallacy is so 2006. I haven't made a smegging claim about Nielsen representativity. You have. Therefore, you produce the proof. This is how it works.

wnorris, you should listen to yourself man... either drop it, or start providing links and proof for your wild proclamations.

It also means they also estimate 24 million (@$25 per disc) Hd-dvd disc sales for 2007. How does everyone think they will get there at 100k discs per month. Do you think in August the numbers will magically jump to 4-5 mil a month.

I don't think they will sell 24 mil, but I think about 15 mil appears tp be reasonable. 925,000 discs through the end of Feb will still require a big year end ramp up.Is there a reason you claim to know the figures for January and February, but won't address December or 2006? Once again, how many discs do you think were sold in 2006 by HD DVD? Do you believe the ~$15 million or less claim for software sold in 2006 in that document or not? What do you think the dollar figure for January would be based on your 500k discs claim?

I've already told you that I don't trust their predictions for the future. Their predictions for 2006 were way higher than they reported after reality happened. Their claims for what happened should be much closer than their predictions of what will happen.
And you claim Amazon is included and that the Nielsen numbers are representative of actual sales, so let's see the proof.One difference is that Grubert has built up credibility over time. You on the other hand have posted stuff that has made some of the more astute people (IMO) here skeptical of claims you make. And even here seem like you want to avoid addressing what happened in 2006 while claiming that HD DVD has been selling 500k discs per month in 2007. Did software sales for HD DVD just shoot up in January over December? Kind of interesting if you claim that given your previous comments about so little software from HD DVD this year. Once again, did a studio insider tell you that HD DVD has been selling 500k discs per month (~425k in February) this year?

--Darin

wnorris:

I'd also like to see your evidence that proves Nielsen is only tracking 25%-30% of the market.

At $20 per title average (and I'm being generous here) that's still less than 750,000 discs total for the whole year (probably worldwide).


Thats right. At the time this came out I did similar calculations and found the numbers low compared to claimed 1.5M movie sales.

Thats right. At the time this came out I did similar calculations and found the numbers low compared to claimed 1.5M movie sales.Wasn't the 1.5 million shipped? Do you believe the $15 million figure?

--Darin

This means all these claims of "BD leads 2:1" are about as accurate as the claims "Al Gore defeats George Bush".

Sounds to me they must be pretty accurate then :)

I still can't believe that you guys find it hard to believe that someone would shell out between $200-$500 for a piece of hardware that performs one function, and then would purchase little to no software for the device. Why does buying one movie every other week per piece of hardware seem so far fetched to you guys? Do you really think people even shelled out $200 for a 360 addon and they just repeatedly watch King Kong over and over? And the folks who paid $800-$1000 for an XA2 are even more serious about movie viewing.

Take my example. I've two HD DVD players - HD-A1 and the 360 add-on. The number of movies I have bought is a grand total of Zero. Because I only rent ( I can't watch a movie more than once).

Your assumption is that attach rate is 24 per year. That is very high. At 25K per week, the attach rate comes to about 5 per year (assuming 250K players). That is a little low, but more beleivable.

Wasn't the 1.5 million shipped? Do you believe the $15 million figure?

IIRC, that is how we "reconciled" the figures. That was never properly conveyed by the press release.

Sounds to me they must be pretty accurate then :)

LOL.

no, i mean it. thanks for not lumping the normal hd dvd owners with the fanboys who will run out and buy every crappy hd dvd movie there is just to say that they have so many hd dvd movies and try to get lame sales up.


How do you know they aren't buying because they actually LIKE the movie? Who made you the authority on what hd-dvd owners like and don't like?

Why wouldn't you belive ~500k per month?

Where did you get this info from ? Where did your source get the information from ? (I'm not asking for proof or links, just how and from where did you get the info).

One big problem is studios really have no way of figuring out sold numbers accurately ... that too in a timely manner. They only know the shipped data.

I can see Nielsen missing some 50% of sales. So we are talking about may be 200K sales per month instead of 100K. Given 250K players about 10 per year attach rates look practicle.

How do you know they aren't buying because they actually LIKE the movie? Who made you the authority on what hd-dvd owners like and don't like?Given that at least one person has posted that they are buying titles they wouldn't otherwise just to help HD DVD and it looks like some others are doing the same, I don't think it is off to say that some are doing it. Of course there are those are are just buying movies they like, but it isn't like people haven't admitted trying to get sales up.

--Darin

For all intents and purposes, 25-30% would be a pretty strong sample. Given Nielsen's reputation, these 25-30% would have been selected as a representative sample (rather than a random collection of stores). With such sampling approach, you will need some really strong unobserved bias before it's going to nudge a 67/33 ratio in any meaningful way.

So, sure, the absolute numbers could be off. But the ratio's are quite reliable.

For all intents and purposes, 25-30% would be a pretty strong sample. Given Nielsen's reputation, these 25-30% would have been selected as a representative sample (rather than a random collection of stores). With such sampling approach, you will need some really strong unobserved bias before it's going to nudge a 67/33 ratio in any meaningful way.

So, sure, the absolute numbers could be off. But the ratio's are quite reliable.

AFAIK, Nielsen doesn't "sample". Any retailer can get into their program (they might market it as well) and send data. They will accept and use the data.

But, as a long time HD DVD supporter I've no problem accepting 2:1 as the correct ratio of sales. I don't see why anyone else would have that problem ...

Thats right. At the time this came out I did similar calculations and found the numbers low compared to claimed 1.5M movie sales.
Agreed.

Looking back at my calculation on the previous page of 750,000 maximum sales for calendar year for HD DVD per Toshiba, here's what I derive based on our projections for 2007:

In January (allowing for 50% of the sales between 1/28 and 2/4 to be counted to round out the month), we're looking at 105,340/462,000 = Equivalent of 22.8% of 2006 sales made in the month of January.

February saw even fewer sales (Half of the 2/4 figure through half of the 3/4 figure), 100,241/462,000 = Equivalent to 21.7% of 2006 sales made in February.

For wnorris' 500K number to be true, that would mean that HD DVD needed to have sold about 2.3 million discs in 2006. Do I have anyone here who believes that there were that many discs sold back then?

Anyone at all?

I didn't think so.

AFAIK, Nielsen doesn't "sample". Any retailer can get into their program (they might market it as well) and send data. They will accept and use the data.

You may be right here.
(My experience with Nielsen is on quite different media products, where they are actually very careful in selecting their sources. I was just extrapolating from there.)

Take my example. I've two HD DVD players - HD-A1 and the 360 add-on. The number of movies I have bought is a grand total of Zero. Because I only rent ( I can't watch a movie more than once).
It's nice to hear some other people talking about this. Even though we created a thread about the rental phenomenon, I still feel like it's being overlooked. I think it has something to do with the fact that BB and Netflix are so tight-lipped about their figures, that there is little to discuss in the way of factual evidence.

But there is circumstantial and anecdotal evidence such as what you've provided here. There have also been polls and it does seem that even AVS members tend to rent most of their HD media.

But there is circumstantial and anecdotal evidence such as what you've provided here. There have also been polls and it does seem that even AVS members tend to rent most of their HD media.

Its the same with me for DVD. I don't buy them either - I just rent.

We know that # of rentals > # of sell-throughs. But Total Sell-through revenue is greater than rental revenue for DVDs.

Its the same with me for DVD. I don't buy them either - I just rent.
Same here.

Now when DVD was new, there wasn't much of a rental selection, so I bought quite a few, though I would have bought some of my favorites, as well as a few to show off, regardless.

Now we have a different situation with HD.

1. Early adopters will buy some software to have on hand no matter what.

2. But they may have bought more if there was no danger of obsolescence, i.e. one format.

3. Also, in this case, the rental houses began to stock HD, pretty much right away.

Its the same with me for DVD. I don't buy them either - I just rent.

We know that # of rentals > # of sell-throughs. But Total Sell-through revenue is greater than rental revenue for DVDs.
With DVD it's a matter of convenience, though.

I think with high definition discs, a lot of the reason people are renting is hedging their bets against buying stuff that may become obsolete. DVD doesn't have that fear hanging about it, so naturally people are more willing to buy in.

With DVD it's a matter of convenience, though.

I think with high definition discs, a lot of the reason people are renting is hedging their bets against buying stuff that may become obsolete. DVD doesn't have that fear hanging about it, so naturally people are more willing to buy in.
Ha-ha, beat you to it. :p

:)

Glad to see we're on the same page.

I think with high definition discs, a lot of the reason people are renting is hedging their bets against buying stuff that may become obsolete. DVD doesn't have that fear hanging about it, so naturally people are more willing to buy in.

I'm sure there are people who aren't buying because of fear of obselesence ... but you wouldn't think so, looking at all the posts in the s/w sections.

We should run a poll to see which DVD buyers are resorting to renting for the fear of obselesence .

I'm sure there are people who aren't buying because of fear of obselesence ... but you wouldn't think so, looking at all the posts in the s/w sections.

We should run a poll to see which DVD buyers are resorting to renting for the fear of obselesence .
AVS is full of movie nutcase early adopters though. :) Not everyone has the kind of disposable income to gamble hundreds of dollars on a risky venture in the middle of a format war.

Of course, I think it's fairly obvious that most of what comprise the main buying demographic for both formats remains the early adopters plus a smattering of early majority, so hey, perhaps AVS really is a decent sample after all...

perhaps AVS really is a decent sample after all...

No it's not. People in here buy a heck lot more than any typical consumer I know, who mostly rent. I also have a hard time believing typical consumers would spend hundreds of dollars replacing their older catalog titles with new HD ones, which is why i doubt catalog sales are relevant in this format war in the long run and are only significant now, where enthusiasts are willing to spend too much money on old titles.

Another tidbit drawn from the eProductWars posting forum:
Casino Royale on Blu-ray outsells The Departed on Blu-ray 9 to 1 (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3ia6dfe0191d68dacbe8b587f728519b21)

Given the report from paidgeek (Sony Pictures insider) that indicates that CR had upwards of 85,000 sales in its first week, that would peg The Departed (BD) at just under 10K discs for week of 3/13-3/20.

Posting this here as a reference for when we have more information on next week's numbers.

No it's not. People in here buy a heck lot more than any typical consumer I know, who mostly rent. I also have a hard time believing typical consumers would spend hundreds of dollars replacing their older catalog titles with new HD ones, which is why i doubt catalog sales are relevant in this format war in the long run and are only significant now, where enthusiasts are willing to spend too much money on old titles.
Non-blockbuster catalog titles I agree are not going to shift the numbers significantly in either direction.

Blockbuster titles that are already on DVD is still an open question. I think May 22nd will be a good litmus test for the performance of blockbuster catalogs, with Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 on Blu-ray and The Matrix Ultimate Collection on HD DVD releasing on the same day.

Another tidbit drawn from the eProductWars posting forum:
Casino Royale on Blu-ray outsells The Departed on Blu-ray 9 to 1 (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3ia6dfe0191d68dacbe8b587f728519b21)

Given the report from paidgeek (Sony Pictures insider) that indicates that CR had upwards of 85,000 sales in its first week, that would peg The Departed (BD) at just under 10K discs for week of 3/13-3/20.

Posting this here as a reference for when we have more information on next week's numbers.

Sounds reasonable as that is in line with its (The Departed Bluray) first week's sales of 20,000-23,000 copies.

I think CR Blu-ray has set a bar that will most likely not be broken until Spideyman 3 (if it gets to blu-ray on the same day as the sd-dvd version)

Non-blockbuster catalog titles I agree are not going to shift the numbers significantly in either direction.

Blockbuster titles that are already on DVD is still an open question. I think May 22nd will be a good litmus test for the performance of blockbuster catalogs, with Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 on Blu-ray and The Matrix Ultimate Collection on HD DVD releasing on the same day.

Probably, first week sales:

CR (Blu-ray) >>> PoTC 1 or 2 (Blu-ray) >> Matrix (Blu-ray?) > Matrix (HD-DVD)

However,

Spideyman 3 (blu-ray) >>>>>>> CR (blu-ray) :D

Sounds reasonable as that is in line with its (The Departed Bluray) first week's sales of 20,000-23,000 copies.

I think CR Blu-ray has set a bar that will most likely not be broken until Spideyman 3 (if it gets to blu-ray on the same day as the sd-dvd version)
I don't know about that. The number of players in the wild increases over time, so it'll take less exposure as well to beat these first week performances.

Also, notice A Night at the Museum on 4/24 is a Blu-ray day and date for the #2 movie of 2006. It has a decent chance of unseating Casino Royale, having a wider base demographic.

I don't know about that. The number of players in the wild increases over time, so it'll take less exposure as well to beat these first week performances.

Also, notice A Night at the Museum on 4/24 is a Blu-ray day and date for the #2 movie of 2006. It has a decent chance of unseating Casino Royale, having a wider base demographic.

You are probably right about the population base of blu-ray being much larger by that time (I mean, the PS3 in USA is selling a hundred thousand to 200,000 units every month)

I'll point out one factor in that James Bond movies have a more rabid following than Night at the Museum "fans", which could explain the very strong performance of CR on blu-ray, which may not be repeated for NatM.

But, you're probably right....

One factor that you must consider, that CR wasnt own by any PS3 owner on DVD. That makes them more interested in buying the blueray version, even if they dont have a HD ready tv.

For movies thats already been out like POTC, wouldnt attract as much buyers.

For wnorris' 500K number to be true, that would mean that HD DVD needed to have sold about 2.3 million discs in 2006. Do I have anyone here who believes that there were that many discs sold back then?

Anyone at all?

I didn't think so.I agree. His numbers are refuted by every single piece of evidence and all projections, including the Video Business report (which quoted industry sources), the charts, and quotes from neutral studios. Unless he can show us irrefutable evidence, what reason do we have to accept his numbers?

BTW, has anyone retried the Feb numbers from VB (250k BD vs 125k HD) to see what comes up? I know they were discounted, but might they possibly straighten out the numbers?

BTW I just bumped into a previous Warner estimate from last August: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6360750.html

"Warner exec forecasts title spending up to $500M in Q4 2006"

Can I get a LOL?

AVS is full of movie nutcase early adopters though. :) Not everyone has the kind of disposable income to gamble hundreds of dollars on a risky venture in the middle of a format war.

Of course, I think it's fairly obvious that most of what comprise the main buying demographic for both formats remains the early adopters plus a smattering of early majority, so hey, perhaps AVS really is a decent sample after all...
This question has come up before, but compared to how much a family has to spend on a typical vacation, movie collecting is still one of the cheapest hobbies around. A golf membership alone is enough to buy all the movies you will ever collect in your life time.

You just have to prioritize what's important.

I have no doubt though that for most people, watching movies is not high on their list.

BTW, has anyone retried the Feb numbers from VB (250k BD vs 125k HD) to see what comes up? I know they were discounted, but might they possibly straighten out the numbers?
I tried them. They don't mesh at all with Nielsen's numbers; the sales ratio is way off from what Nielsen is reporting.

BTW I just bumped into a previous Warner estimate from last August: http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6360750.html

"Warner exec forecasts title spending up to $500M in Q4 2006"

Can I get a LOL?

LOL. :)

wnorris:

I'd also like to see your evidence that proves Nielsen is only tracking 25%-30% of the market.


The evidence is here in the forum. Using Nielsen ratios, the disc volumes for HD-DVD are being tracked way under the actual level, buy about 25-30% (or worse) of actual.

Agreed.

Looking back at my calculation on the previous page of 750,000 maximum sales for calendar year for HD DVD per Toshiba, here's what I derive based on our projections for 2007:

In January (allowing for 50% of the sales between 1/28 and 2/4 to be counted to round out the month), we're looking at 105,340/462,000 = Equivalent of 22.8% of 2006 sales made in the month of January.

February saw even fewer sales (Half of the 2/4 figure through half of the 3/4 figure), 100,241/462,000 = Equivalent to 21.7% of 2006 sales made in February.

For wnorris' 500K number to be true, that would mean that HD DVD needed to have sold about 2.3 million discs in 2006. Do I have anyone here who believes that there were that many discs sold back then?

Anyone at all?

I didn't think so.

What delusional world are you guys living in? You keep throwing Nielsen numbers into every arguement. And then try to make faulty Nielsen numbers somehow jive. 925,000 discs sold in Jan and Feb for HD-DVD. This doesn't mean anything about disc sales in 2006. The two figures are in no way related (unless you try to apply Nielsen data that is non-representative of the actual market).

Whatever. You guys just keep spending your time playing with numbers that aren't even close to reflecting reality. I guess that is what it takes for you to sleep well at night...

"Figures are not always facts." -- Aesop

Take my example. I've two HD DVD players - HD-A1 and the 360 add-on. The number of movies I have bought is a grand total of Zero. Because I only rent ( I can't watch a movie more than once).

Your assumption is that attach rate is 24 per year. That is very high. At 25K per week, the attach rate comes to about 5 per year (assuming 250K players). That is a little low, but more beleivable.

Yes, but for every two or three like you, there is another person who owns 120+ HD-DVD's. An average is how I arrive at ~2 discs per player per month. 925k discs in two months with 200-225k players (I don't know the actual number of players, so I'm taking an educated guess there).

I also agree with everyone that studios don't know exactly how many movies were sold by retailers, but they are extremely efficient at estimating it. They have an estimate for the number of films currently in retail channels, an exact number for how many more were ordered and shipped, and somehow (based on these two numbers and experience I believe), arrive at the estimated number of discs sold through. I think the logic goes, retailers wouldn't order, X number of discs, unless they were selling a large percentage of those discs. Or in this case, if retailers were only selling 200k HD-DVD discs per month, they wouldn't be ordering 3-4X that amount from studios, or otherwise inventory would just keep piling up. Especially at this time of year, when they are doing inventory for tax purposes. Historically, restock is at its lowest levels in Jan/Feb.

I'll admit the studio estimate could be way off base if somewhere out there, someone is buying hundreds of thousands of discs and just stockpiling them in a warehouse. I guess the next response will be from nutjobs claiming Toshiba or Sony are ordering discs and stockpiling them in hidden warehouses to either a) make studios think they are selling better than they are, or b) to flood the market at some future date to make prices drop and give the appearance of a "clearance" of something that won't sell.

What delusional world are you guys living in? You keep throwing Nielsen numbers into every arguement. And then try to make faulty Nielsen numbers somehow jive. 925,000 discs sold in Jan and Feb for HD-DVD. This doesn't mean anything about disc sales in 2006. The two figures are in no way related (unless you try to apply Nielsen data that is non-representative of the actual market).

Yes, I'm sure Nielsen is just so bad at tracking data that no one trusts them but everyone still throws money at them to continue studying the market. /sarcasm

I used Nielsen as a standard for expected ratios, not for exact figures. Your claim of 925,000 discs sold (with zero proof) holds no water unless you believe there were either many more disc sales in 2006 than even Toshiba is willing to claim, or you believe that sales suddenly exploded from December to January.

Whatever. You guys just keep spending your time playing with numbers that aren't even close to reflecting reality. I guess that is what it takes for you to sleep well at night...

"Figures are not always facts." -- Aesop
If you want a place where you can state things and have people believe them on faith alone, there are these places called "churches" that are in the business.

Furthermore, if you have nothing to contribute but mystical pronouncements, might I suggest you find another thread to pollute? Some of us are trying to have a rational discussion here.

The evidence is here in the forum. Using Nielsen ratios, the disc volumes for HD-DVD are being tracked way under the actual level, buy about 25-30% (or worse) of actual.

So, your 25% to 30% is based on what we are calculating along with the numbers you think (or know or heard or read) the studios think they are actually selling ?

So, how do you know - where did you get - the numbers from studios ? Remember our numbers are based on paramount exec's statement. Not on Nielsen. We use Nielsen to get the ratios.

I got a buddy to buy the 360 add on after I did (printed another copy of the CC coupon, too). He hasn't bought a single HDDVD either, though I let him borrow a couple of mine.

I'll have to stand corrected a bit...

I received some more clarification on the 925,000 HD-DVD disc number. It is an estimate of sales, but it is not necesarrily an estimate of sales to the consumer. It would also include sales to outlets such as video rental.

I guess that would change my arguement a bit, but by how much is another arguement.

If you believe Nielsen catches 50% of sales, and that it shows ~100k units per month, then you are saying retail outlets sell through 200k units per month. This would mean the "other" outlets (video rental is the only signifigant "other" I can think of, unless studios are selling to Toshiba for the get 3 free with player offer). This would mean 300k units to "other".

There are fewer than 30k B&M rental outlets in the US, plus Netflix and Blockbuster online. Is it reasonable to think rental outlets are buying 300k discs a month of various titles? Seems a bit high to me, considering the majority of outlets don't carry either hi-def format. Or if it did inlcude Toshiba freebies (I guess if Toshiba has to pay the studios for the discs, that is a sale to studios), is it 200k retail, maybe 150k rental, and 150k for the Toshiba freebies. That would mean (50k player sales per month, since it was get 3 free during this time frame).

The last scenario does sound feasible. But regardless of the combinantion, my point is that any proclomation of BD's "victory" or that BD is outperforming HD-DVD is "propoganda" (as Toshiba would say) without looking at the entire picture.

Any way you boil it, if HD-DVD sales just pace the 925k every two months like the start of the year (traditionally slow, and not many new releases for HD-DVD, so it should ramp up), that will be around 5.5 million discs sold by studios by year end, for a revenue of $138 million for the year, which is a huge improvement over 2006. Nothing there that would make HD-DVD appear to go away.

If it is 300k discs in sales to renatl outlets per month, then the format must be renting huge amongst HD-DVD owners. Again, nothing that would make video stores shy away from the format.

If it is 150k from from freebies with players, that would still mean 50k players sold per month on average, and BD is averaging maybe 140k per month in the same time frame. With HD-DVD, we know those will all be used primarily for movies, but with the BD figure, most are PS3's, and only a portion of those are likely to be used. With a cheap HD-DVD player on the horizon (The Venturer) and the announced drop of Toshiba MSRP in the immediate future (which means lower retail prices), and US PS3 sales dropping, its not a stretch to believe as much or more HD-DVD hardware will be sold a month than BD hardware.

If you don't believe that rental outlets are buying this many, or enough hardware is being sold, then it would mean that Nielsen is capturing less than 50% or retail sales, which to me, would make it a poor indicator of performance.

However you shake the numbers down, there is nothing there to indicate HD-DVD is performing poorly, which is the tone that often seems to accompany the Nielsen analysis in this thread. At best Nielsen is correct, but not reflective of HD-DVD's true overall performance. At worst, Nielsen is not representative of retail sales, which makes threads like this one about as signifigant as the threads that analyzed eproductwars.

Now, I've never stated BD is performing poorly either. I've said that if Nielsen is way off in the data they capture, it could be possible for HD-DVD to actually be leading, but for Nielsen to show the reverse, which is true. To me, both formats seem to be doing fairly well (the PS3 hardware sales drop is the only negative trend on the BD side), which leads me back to the position that I've always maintained: Dual format is the reality of the future, at least for the next several years.

Yes, I'm sure Nielsen is just so bad at tracking data that no one trusts them but everyone still throws money at them to continue studying the market. /sarcasm

I used Nielsen as a standard for expected ratios, not for exact figures. Your claim of 925,000 discs sold (with zero proof) holds no water unless you believe there were either many more disc sales in 2006 than even Toshiba is willing to claim, or you believe that sales suddenly exploded from December to January.


If you want a place where you can state things and have people believe them on faith alone, there are these places called "churches" that are in the business.

Furthermore, if you have nothing to contribute but mystical pronouncements, might I suggest you find another thread to pollute? Some of us are trying to have a rational discussion here.

Enlighten me, what exactly is Toshiba willing to claim? Are you refering to the 1.5 million shipped number from early November last year?

I do believe it is the case that sales exploded, at least in January. I don't know about December 2006, but it isn't a far stretch to believe they "exploded" there too. I don't think Jan. 1 rolled around and suddenly the masses started a buying frenzy at the stroke of midnight.

The evidence is here in the forum. Using Nielsen ratios, the disc volumes for HD-DVD are being tracked way under the actual level, buy about 25-30% (or worse) of actual.

ok, so I get it now. you claim that nielsen is only tracking 25-50% of the market etrapolated from its sales ratio based on your 925,000 discs sold figure?

So where did you come up with 925,000 discs sold? and if nielsen is indeed only tracking 25-30% of the hd dvd market, isn't it fair to conclude that it is doing the same for BD as well?

I agree. His numbers are refuted by every single piece of evidence and all projections, including the Video Business report (which quoted industry sources), the charts, and quotes from neutral studios. Unless he can show us irrefutable evidence, what reason do we have to accept his numbers?

BTW, has anyone retried the Feb numbers from VB (250k BD vs 125k HD) to see what comes up? I know they were discounted, but might they possibly straighten out the numbers?

What, you mean like this?

Wk HD SI WK Day Avg. Adjusted
02/04 694,848 24,690 3,527 14,109
02/11 718,600 23,752 3,393 23,752
02/18 752,916 34,316 4,902 34,316
02/25 787,590 34,674 4,953 34,674
03/04 818,595 31,005 4,429 13,288

Total HD DVD - Feb 2007 120,138

Wk BD SI WK Day Avg. Adjusted
02/04 643,152 55,020 7,860 31,440
02/11 697,617 54,465 7,781 54,465
02/18 762,756 65,139 9,306 65,139
02/25 835,639 72,883 10,412 72,883
03/04 895,031 59,392 8,485 25,454

Total BD - Feb 2007 249,381


Nope. Never tried that. ;)

Using start numbers that get us pretty close to the 250k/125k Feb 07 report we get the following for the most recent data:

BD: 29,717 (50% down on previous week)
HD DVD: 6,742 (78% down on previous week)

Still doesn't make any sense to me.

I'll have to stand corrected a bit...

I received some more clarification on the 925,000 HD-DVD disc number. It is an estimate of sales, but it is not necesarrily an estimate of sales to the consumer. It would also include sales to outlets such as video rental.

I guess that would change my arguement a bit, but by how much is another arguement.

If you believe Nielsen catches 50% of sales, and that it shows ~100k units per month, then you are saying retail outlets sell through 200k units per month. This would mean the "other" outlets (video rental is the only signifigant "other" I can think of, unless studios are selling to Toshiba for the get 3 free with player offer). This would mean 300k units to "other".

There are fewer than 30k B&M rental outlets in the US, plus Netflix and Blockbuster online. Is it reasonable to think rental outlets are buying 300k discs a month of various titles? Seems a bit high to me, considering the majority of outlets don't carry either hi-def format. Or if it did inlcude Toshiba freebies (I guess if Toshiba has to pay the studios for the discs, that is a sale to studios), is it 200k retail, maybe 150k rental, and 150k for the Toshiba freebies. That would mean (50k player sales per month, since it was get 3 free during this time frame).

The last scenario does sound feasible. But regardless of the combinantion, my point is that any proclomation of BD's "victory" or that BD is outperforming HD-DVD is "propoganda" (as Toshiba would say) without looking at the entire picture.

Any way you boil it, if HD-DVD sales just pace the 925k every two months like the start of the year (traditionally slow, and not many new releases for HD-DVD, so it should ramp up), that will be around 5.5 million discs sold by studios by year end, for a revenue of $138 million for the year, which is a huge improvement over 2006. Nothing there that would make HD-DVD appear to go away.

If it is 300k discs in sales to renatl outlets per month, then the format must be renting huge amongst HD-DVD owners. Again, nothing that would make video stores shy away from the format.

If it is 150k from from freebies with players, that would still mean 50k players sold per month on average, and BD is averaging maybe 140k per month in the same time frame. With HD-DVD, we know those will all be used primarily for movies, but with the BD figure, most are PS3's, and only a portion of those are likely to be used. With a cheap HD-DVD player on the horizon (The Venturer) and the announced drop of Toshiba MSRP in the immediate future (which means lower retail prices), and US PS3 sales dropping, its not a stretch to believe as much or more HD-DVD hardware will be sold a month than BD hardware.

If you don't believe that rental outlets are buying this many, or enough hardware is being sold, then it would mean that Nielsen is capturing less than 50% or retail sales, which to me, would make it a poor indicator of performance.

However you shake the numbers down, there is nothing there to indicate HD-DVD is performing poorly, which is the tone that often seems to accompany the Nielsen analysis in this thread. At best Nielsen is correct, but not reflective of HD-DVD's true overall performance. At worst, Nielsen is not representative of retail sales, which makes threads like this one about as signifigant as the threads that analyzed eproductwars.

Now, I've never stated BD is performing poorly either. I've said that if Nielsen is way off in the data they capture, it could be possible for HD-DVD to actually be leading, but for Nielsen to show the reverse, which is true. To me, both formats seem to be doing fairly well (the PS3 hardware sales drop is the only negative trend on the BD side), which leads me back to the position that I've always maintained: Dual format is the reality of the future, at least for the next several years.

Why are you arguing about the accuracy of the Nielsen data when every other disc sales source shows the same thing as Nielsen?

First off, we have no data on rental figures. None. Zero. Zilch. Zip. Blockbuster and Netflix aren't talking. Hollywood Video isn't talking. No one is talking. Are there a lot of sales tied up in the rental business? Maybe. Do we have any idea how much? Absolutely not.

Are those sales outpacing retail sales? Possible, but how do you prove it either way?

More importantly, you're now talking about areas that Nielsen doesn't even claim to cover. They cover retail sell-through. That's all. This entire discussion revolves around retail sell-through, because that's the only data we have right now.

Is it an incomplete picture? Of course. How incomplete, though? For all we know, the rental services could only be ordering a few hundred copies of every title. The queue times for BBO and Netflix for most high definition discs certainly don't indicate that they've got a preponderance of stock to rent.

At any rate, the operating idea is that what happens in the retail sector should roughly approximate what is happening behind the scenes in other sectors as well. If we want to talk about invisible sales, for instance, there's the 45,000+ disc disparity of stock at Amazon. I would imagine that other online retailers like DVDEmpire are also stocking more Blu-ray than HD DVD since they also show more sell-through.

I would trust even studio numbers with a jaundiced eye at this point, because the truth is that nobody has a bird's eye view of what's going on. Retailers have a clue based on what they see. Studios have a clue based on what number of discs get ordered. Rental services have a clue based on demand from their subscribers. But none of them see what the others are seeing, and it's possible (unlikely but possible) that one format is doing better at one venue than others.

I'd say that all of them at least have a good idea, though, since the natural assumption is that whichever format is doing best in one category is most likely going to be doing well in the others as well. If we accept this to be true, then regardless of the market coverage of Nielsen, then as long as they are representative of the trends in the retail channel, we can project and say it is very likely that the sales hidden from view are also following suit.

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 3/18/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 The Departed (WB, $39.99)
2 Casino (UNI, $29.98)
3 Superman Returns (WB, $39.99)
4 The Last Samurai (WB, $28.99)
5 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
6 Phantom Of the Opera (WB, $28.99)
7 Babel (PAR, $39.99)
8 The Mummy Returns (UNI, $29.98)
9 Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas (UNI, $29.98)
10 Goodfellas (WB, $28.99)


Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 3/18/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Casino Royale (SONY, $38.96)
2 The Departed (WB, $34.99)
3 The Prestige (BV, $34.99)
4 The Fifth Element (SONY, $28.95)
5 The Holiday (SONY, $38.96)
6 Black Hawk Down (SONY, $28.95)
7 House Of Flying Daggers (SONY, $28.95)
8 X-MEN: The Last Stand (FOX, $39.98)
9 Underworld Evolution (SONY, $38.95)
10 Layer Cake (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Why are you arguing about the accuracy of the Nielsen data when every other disc sales source shows the same thing as Nielsen?

What are those other sources? Every report I see cites Nielsen as their source.

What are those other sources? Every report I see cites Nielsen as their source.

Both of these show data consistent with Nielsen:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Whether it's Amazon, DVDEmpire, or Videoscan, the result is the same. Blu-ray discs are outselling HD-DVD discs by a wide margin.

fa,

Whether it's Amazon, DVDEmpire, or Videoscan, the result is the same. Blu-ray discs are outselling HD-DVD discs by a wide margin

Where in those two sites did you find information that the sales difference was "wide" as you put it. All I saw were percentages and rankings.

In the absence of any raw numbers, for all you know, the percentages could actually represent rather small absolute numbers. Hence, the difference may not be wide at all.

This is the problem of using percentages without knowing the context.

fa,



Where in those two sites did you find information that the sales difference was "wide" as you put it. All I saw were percentages and rankings.

In the absence of any raw numbers, for all you know, the percentages could actually represent rather small absolute numbers. Hence, the difference may not be wide at all.

This is the problem of using percentages without knowing the context.
Oh George.

With your education, you, of all people should understand that the very word, "margin," is a differential term. Absolute figures take a back seat.

If Blu-ray sells 2 discs and HD DVD only one, that's a 2:1 "margin."

And that definition is valid whether it's actually 2:1 OR 70,000:35,000.

Please. I know you can do better, or maybe it's just the material that you're, unfortunately stuck with. ;)

Oh, Sketcha

With your education, you should have clearly realized I was refering to the term "wide" not margin. And that definition ISNT valid whether it is2:1 or 70K:35K.

I'll have to stand corrected a bit...

I received some more clarification on the 925,000 HD-DVD disc number. It is an estimate of sales, but it is not necesarrily an estimate of sales to the consumer. It would also include sales to outlets such as video rental.

If that includes things like freebees Tosh sends or the HD DVD that comes with the 360 add-on - we get a very different picture.

Let us say 25K Tosh players and 25K add-ons are sold per month. That is some 125K in freebees.

Let us assume all the 250K player onwers are netflix users. Also that they rent 4 HD DVDs a month and keep them for a week each. So, a total 1M rentals per month for netflix. Assume there are about 200 titles with 10 releasing every month. Further assume 10% of the onwers want to see a titile quickly. So, netflix needs to keep some 25/4 = 6K copies of each movie. That would also explain why it took me months to get Batman Begin's - even if they upped their order, % of people wanting to see the title must be very high.

Anyway, with all these assumptions, netflix would have bought about 60K titles per month.

Let us say a total of 200K between freebees and rental. That brings us close to what you are talking about. 100K (Neilsen) + 100K (retail not covered) + 125K freebees + 60K rentals.

I'd like to hear anyone who has a better idea about netflix. How many copies do they buy ?

We're wandering way too far afield of the original discussion into the realm of speculation. I would respectfully suggest that those who are arguing for its own sake leave this thread alone and move to the next field. There are plenty of speculation threads on this forum, and I'd rather not see this one go down that route when we've got real data to work with.

I'll have to stand corrected a bit...

I received some more clarification on the 925,000 HD-DVD disc number. It is an estimate of sales, but it is not necesarrily an estimate of sales to the consumer. It would also include sales to outlets such as video rental.Since you seem to have a source, how about asking your source whether these shot up in January and February over November and December. At normal disc prices they are claiming over $15 million worth of discs for the first 2 months of the year (or you are claiming that based on some info), while the press release from the HD DVD group indicated only about $15 million in disc sales for all of 2006.

--Darin

Here's my theory. The mass of PS3 owners are buying because they're not committed to the BD movie format while the mass of HD owners are, so they buy and subscribe to Netflix. Happens to result in a 2:1 buying ratio. We really need to know rental ratios - could be 1:2 or more.

Anyway, in all this only the counts the studios count are meaningful.

Here's my theory. The mass of PS3 owners are buying because they're not committed to the BD movie format while the mass of HD owners are, so they buy and subscribe to Netflix. Happens to result in a 2:1 buying ratio. We really need to know rental ratios - could be 1:2 or more.Just want to get this straight. Are you claiming that HD DVD owners are more committed and so rent more and buy less? Seems like it would be the other way around. People who are more committed to a format would be more likely to buy discs for it, while less committed people would be more likely to rent. Or were you just looking for a way to try to claim that HD DVD is doing better? :)

--Darin

Oh, Sketcha

With your education, you should have clearly realized I was refering to the term "wide" not margin. And that definition ISNT valid whether it is2:1 or 70K:35K.
So if a horse is leading a race by half the circumference of the track, I guess you would not consider that a "wide" margin. :)

Of course our SI figures show that our horse is only leading by about 15% track circumference or about 792 feet. I guess you would probably call that "neck and neck." ;)

Hugs :)

EDIT: Oh, and P.S. Yes, for the record, you did quote the word "wide." But fa's term was "wide margin," which you also quoted (see your quote box.) You can't really expect to wiggle out of the extra word, if it was truly your intention to question his position, can you? Otherwise you would just be quoting him out of context for some argument's sake which, of course, anyone in this thread could clearly see through.

If that includes things like freebees Tosh sends or the HD DVD that comes with the 360 add-on - we get a very different picture.

Let us say 25K Tosh players and 25K add-ons are sold per month. That is some 125K in freebees.

Let us assume all the 250K player onwers are netflix users. Also that they rent 4 HD DVDs a month and keep them for a week each. So, a total 1M rentals per month for netflix. Assume there are about 200 titles with 10 releasing every month. Further assume 10% of the onwers want to see a titile quickly. So, netflix needs to keep some 25/4 = 6K copies of each movie. That would also explain why it took me months to get Batman Begin's - even if they upped their order, % of people wanting to see the title must be very high.

Anyway, with all these assumptions, netflix would have bought about 60K titles per month.

Let us say a total of 200K between freebees and rental. That brings us close to what you are talking about. 100K (Neilsen) + 100K (retail not covered) + 125K freebees + 60K rentals.

I'd like to hear anyone who has a better idea about netflix. How many copies do they buy ?
As would I.

Like you said, there are obviously quite a few assumptions here, but nice work! It would be great if we could move further down the road of deciphering the rental volume question.

:)

Just want to get this straight. Are you claiming that HD DVD owners are more committed and so rent more and buy less? Seems like it would be the other way around. People who are more committed to a format would be more likely to buy discs for it, while less committed people would be more likely to rent. Or were you just looking for a way to try to claim that HD DVD is doing better? :)

--Darin
Yeah, that was a tough read. Seemed pretty jumbled up and backwards. Could you clarify that, Wayne?

I've been a strong proponent of the PS3 owners = greater renters theory since way before either format was released. And everything I've seen, seems to further that theory.

What delusional world are you guys living in? You keep throwing Nielsen numbers into every arguement.No offense norris but read the title of this thread and you will see this is a thread about Nielsen sales ratios. So far you have made a lot of claims against Nielsen but you have provided no proof at all for those claims. Expect skepticism until you start providing proof for those claims.


I received some more clarification on the 925,000 HD-DVD disc number.You received clarification from whom?


However you shake the numbers down, there is nothing there to indicate HD-DVD is performing poorly, which is the tone that often seems to accompany the Nielsen analysis in this thread.Well you certainly don't have to agree with the analysis of anyone else, but you still haven't provided any evidence for the claims that you have made in this thread.

Week ended March 18, 2007

YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 44.44
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 84.07

Week ended March 18, 2007

YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 44.44
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 84.07

Beat me to it!

Let the hurting begin:


Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 n/a 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 n/a 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 The Departed (WB, $39.99)
2 Casino (UNI, $29.98)
3 Superman Returns (WB, $39.99)
4 The Last Samurai (WB, $28.99)
5 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
6 Phantom Of the Opera (WB, $28.99)
7 Babel (PAR, $39.99)
8 The Mummy Returns (UNI, $29.98)
9 Fear And Loathing In Las Vegas (UNI, $29.98)
10 Goodfellas (WB, $28.99)

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Casino Royale (SONY, $38.96)
2 The Departed (WB, $34.99)
3 The Prestige (BV, $34.99)
4 The Fifth Element (SONY, $28.95)
5 The Holiday (SONY, $38.96)
6 Black Hawk Down (SONY, $28.95)
7 House Of Flying Daggers (SONY, $28.95)
8 X-MEN: The Last Stand (FOX, $39.98)
9 Underworld Evolution (SONY, $38.95)
10 Layer Cake (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.

Is it just me or do these prices seem VERY high relative to the SD-DVD's that come out for $14.88 on release day. Good luck taking over SD-DVD.

k

Until someone throws up the graphic, check page 5 for Disney's take on monthly unit sales from August to January, according to Nielsen.

8/06
BD: 12000
HD: 32000

9/06
BD: 13000
HD: 33000

10/06
BD: 20000
HD: 49000

11/06
BD: 75000
HD: 149000

12/06
BD: 210000
HD: 212000

1/07
BD: 279000
HD: 135000

That decrease in January: :eek:

Interesting graph on a Disney BD ad on HMM


Month HD DVD BD
08/06 32 12
09/06 33 13
10/06 49 20
11/06 147 75
12/06 212 210
01/07 135 279


edit. *hates JBlacklow* ;)

Top 5 BD
1. Casino Royale 100.00
2. The Departed 10.83
3. The Prestige 6.02
4. The Holiday 5.20
5. Layer Cake 4.26

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Departed 100.00
2. Batman Begins 55.96
3. Babel 50.75
4. Clerks II 43.33
5. Troy 38.36

Here is the graph:

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6861/disneygraphqj8.gif

Essentially 10:1 CR vs the next highest BD Departed. Ow!

R.

Here is the graph ...its for BD and HD DVD drives ...NOT discs.

Well, the word 'drives' is the verb in the sentence as in 'causes'. Given that it refers to Nielsen as its source, this must refer to movies.

Comparing those numbers to what we have computed using Icemage's tool:

BD: 193,210 (69%)
HD: 95,078 (70%)

So, we could easily say that Nielson captures 70% of the market, which means all previous unit totals should be multiplied by 1.42 (I think) to get the total number sold that week.

Well, the word 'drives' is the verb in the sentence as in 'causes'. Given that it refers to Nielsen as its source, this must refer to movies.

Yeah I caught my mistake after posting ...the sentence was misleading.

279:135 = 2.067

Going back to the records, the week ended February 4 had YTD: BD 100.00 HD 48.38

100/48.38 = 2.067

Interesting graph on a Disney BD ad on HMM


Month HD DVD BD
08/06 32 12
09/06 33 13
10/06 49 20
11/06 147 75
12/06 212 210
01/07 279 135


edit. *hates JBlacklow* ;)

Looks like you have the numbers reversed for 01/07

oops! corrected, thanks.

Yeah I caught my mistake after posting ...the sentence was misleading.
Agree :)

Where's Icemage and Nataraj ... we need their conjectures as to units sales, and hence the computed ratio ???

Comparing those numbers to what we have computed using Icemage's tool:

BD: 193,210 (69%)
HD: 95,078 (70%)

So, we could easily say that Nielson captures 70% of the market, which means all previous unit totals should be multiplied by 1.42 (I think) to get the total number sold that week.HMM said our estimates are off. What if Disney is only using Nielsen's numbers and not making any projections? Unlikely, but a possible explanation.

Also, what's to explain the threefold rise in HD DVD numbers (by the spreadsheet)? That just adds to the wonkiness of these numbers.

HMM said our estimates are off. What if Disney is only using Nielsen's numbers and not making any projections? Unlikely, but a possible explanation.

Also, what's to explain the threefold rise in HD DVD numbers (by the spreadsheet)? That just adds to the wonkiness of these numbers.

The problem is, it is very difficult to see where the issue lies. If we assume that our numbers are only capturing 70% of the market, then we can just multiply to get the market total. If we start asking where are we really off, and try to fix that, we could run into some harsh compounding issues. Changing our starting point may or may not solve the problem, but that's very difficult to tell until you start plugging everything into the tool.

Changing our starting point may or may not solve the problem, but that's very difficult to tell until you start plugging everything into the tool.Well, I multiplied the source figures by 1.42857 (assuming the 70% number), and in terms of totals, I got 276014 BD vs 135826 HD for the month of January.

PS: How do you guys make the tables work in the post? Is it the CODE function?

Is it just me or do these prices seem VERY high relative to the SD-DVD's that come out for $14.88 on release day. Good luck taking over SD-DVD.


What you have to remember is that some of those prices are the same as release day prices of DVD, it's just that the retailers discount more due to the amount of people buying them.

Also, some of the other higher prices are the exact same prices Fox used to charge for their movies back in the early days of DVD... yet it overcame VHS.

~Alan

I'd like to hear anyone who has a better idea about netflix. How many copies do they buy ? Netflix has over 12 IIRC Maybe 16 regional centers. Minimum copies of a low volume title is about 50 copies x 12 distribution centers = 600 copies.

The CBS newsmagazine 60 Minutes piece showed one area with a rack of Spiderman titles for one distribution center. It showed a minimum of 50 boxes x 200 discs each in its stockage. It implied that that the studios sent 10,000 - 12,000 copies for each center to Netflix for a blockbuster mainstream release. That could be 12 x 12,000 copies. or more than 144,000 for a huge blockbuster.

Netflix's SEC filing statements imply that the major titles are to some degree subsidized by the studios and are not bought at retail cost.

AFAIK, Netflix obtains a minimum of 600-1000 copies of ever disc in its inventory and may for a short time stock 150,000 or more copies of some titles.

There replacement policy is also a bit of a mystery. It may be for most titles they get at a discount, they just get a bunch at first and then as discs go bad the demand has slowed down so their available stockage is adequate.

PS: How do you guys make the tables work in the post? Is it the CODE function?Use the code function around a table just like a quote box. It preserves spaces in teh formatting. It is funky , so you may have to preview it a couple times and add and delete spaces to get it to show right, but if you don't use the code function spacing is deleted.

Well, I multiplied the source figures by 1.42857 (assuming the 70% number), and in terms of totals, I got 276014 BD vs 135826 HD for the month of January.

PS: How do you guys make the tables work in the post? Is it the CODE function?

The January numbers should come out right if you adjust the starting point (its only 4 weeks of data). The problem becomes when we get to March and the problem (if there is one) has some time to multiply.

And yes, if you use the CODE tags, it will count all the spaces so you can line everything up.

Rather than the sales ratio, the 36% decline in sales between Dec and Jan for HD DVD is the bad news. In a new product you want growth and the BD graph looks way better. In fact of any data I have (if this is accurately capturing the market), this is the most compelling case for BD - The fact that HD DVD is showing negative growth. That is terrible if you want to publish content to one format...

However, I'm surprised that even with CR data that HD DVD got 30% of the overall market. Plus that CR did such a huge % of the BD market....

HD DVD really needs to show they have reversed the negative growth problem.

I'll have new charts posted in a bit. Suffice to say that 3/18 looks very bad for HD DVD until I get some numbers confirmed. Stay tuned.

However, I'm surprised that even with CR data that HD DVD got 30% of the overall market. Plus that CR did such a huge % of the BD market....

HD DVD really needs to show they have reversed the negative growth problem.

30% of the market since January 1, yes, but not that week. I hope Icemage or nataraj come in here soon and do their Excel magic so we can see what the weekly percentage is.

But I will agree with you that negative growth is not what you ever want to see in a new format. I will give them that the first quarter after Christmas is always slow, but Blu-ray's maintaining power can't be discounted. HD DVD may look "ok" by showing negative growth in January, but Blu-ray looks "awesome" for showing positive growth.

I believe March 27th will be a much bigger week for testing the market viability of HD DVD. If we don't see a major uptick, or even outsell BD for that week I'd say that HD DVD is in huge trouble....

Unless the 3.11 numbers are wrong, the 3.18 numbers are a rather large spike. Actually, a very large spike given all of february is essentially stalling on YTD.

Those are "week ending" dates, and 3.18 contained Casino Royale (dropped 3.13). A large spike was expected.

Gary

I believe March 27th will be a much bigger week for testing the market viability of HD DVD. If we don't see a major uptick, or even outsell BD for that week I'd say that HD DVD is in huge trouble....

I'm not sure I follow. Most of the releases are Warner, and since they are on both formats and Blu-ray has the install base advantage, that should push towards Blu-ray. Are you saying Children of Men is going to be that significant of a title?

I believe March 27th will be a much bigger week for testing the market viability of HD DVD. If we don't see a major uptick, or even outsell BD for that week I'd say that HD DVD is in huge trouble....

No doubt there is going to be an up tick for HD DVD considering they went 3 weeks WITHOUT a release. As for outselling BD, I highly doubt this. The residual sales of Casino Royale, Rocky Balboa and Eragon along with the new release of The Pursuit of Happyness will counteract and then some to anything HD DVD will offer on 3/27.

Basically its residual sales of Casino Royale/Rocky Balboa/Eragon + The Pursuit of Happyness VS. Children of Men.

Just want to get this straight. Are you claiming that HD DVD owners are more committed and so rent more and buy less? Seems like it would be the other way around. People who are more committed to a format would be more likely to buy discs for it, while less committed people would be more likely to rent. Or were you just looking for a way to try to claim that HD DVD is doing better? :)

--Darin
Say you have a telescope. If you are really into it, you will buy a magazine subscription, rather than buying individual issues off the shelf, but you will buy individual issues from another publisher of the one's that happen to interest you. The guy sort of interested will buy only the occasional magazine at the store.

A bit different here, but if you are really into HD and don't want to lay out so much cash, you subscribe and buy fewer. The guys that are sampling it won't watch the stream coming from a subscription, so they buy a few.

I do think HD-DVD can be doing better than these numbers show :)

Updated chart for Nielsen/VideoScan March 18, 2007:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg)

Attached is the updated spreadsheet.

Updated chart for Nielsen/VideoScan March 18, 2007:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg)

Attached is the updated spreadsheet.

Maybe you should incorporate numbers Disney provided in their latest ad ...their numbers are a bit off from your chart:

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6861/disneygraphqj8.gif

Week ended March 18, 2007

YTD BD 100.00 HD DVD 44.44
SI BD 100.00 HD DVD 84.07When I first read these I thought the 100/44 was for the week and figured HD DVD had done much better than I thought they would given the circumstances. Then I realized it was YTD and see that the week was probably closer to 4:1. The next week should be interesting, but I don't expect HD DVD to win it on Videoscan. I proposed a bet to rdjam for this next weeks numbers maybe 4-6 weeks ago, but he wanted to base the bet on lots of things, but wouldn't tell me how the winner of the bet was really going to be determined or answer simple questions like whether preorders on Amazon would count for the bet or not. At the time I had thought this next week would be a tough call as to who would win on Videoscan, but at this point I think Blu-ray has to be the favorite for that week.

--Darin

Updated chart for Nielsen/VideoScan March 18, 2007:

http://endrop.com/album/photos/zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg)

Attached is the updated spreadsheet.

Ok, so if we assume then that Nielsen is reporting on 70% of sales per week, then the new numbers would be:

Blu-ray: 93,669
HD DVD: 21,808

Either way, our sales ratio is 4.3:1 (and two weeks in a row!)

Say you have a telescope. If you are really into it, you will buy a magazine subscription, rather than buying individual issues off the shelf, but you will buy individual issues from another publisher of the one's that happen to interest you. The guy sort of interested will buy only the occasional magazine at the store.

A bit different here, but if you are really into HD and don't want to lay out so much cash, you subscribe and buy fewer. The guys that are sampling it won't watch the stream coming from a subscription, so they buy a few.In your telescope example the more serious person ends up owning more magazines than the less serious person. But here it seems like you are trying to claim that the more serious person for HD will own less titles.

I think your analogy would be more appropriate to your Netflix claim if you said that the more serious person would go rent the magazines from the library and then take them back while the less serious person would buy a few, but then that wouldn't help your point.

--Darin

Maybe you should incorporate numbers Disney provided in their latest ad ...their numbers are a bit off from your chart
Disney's numbers match the ratios for VideoScan pretty well. I'll work up an alternate spreadsheet to illustrate their figures, since mine are now marked (as of this week) as Nielsen projections.

Now that the Disney chart shows how they believe sales from the last months of 2006 related to sales in 2007 so far, I think it is a good time to go back and look at some things wnorris said. I'm hoping he will take his own advice and use some common sense.
Come one guys, step out of the artificial world of Nielsen reports and start using some common sense...
What delusional world are you guys living in? You keep throwing Nielsen numbers into every arguement. And then try to make faulty Nielsen numbers somehow jive. 925,000 discs sold in Jan and Feb for HD-DVD. This doesn't mean anything about disc sales in 2006. The two figures are in no way related (unless you try to apply Nielsen data that is non-representative of the actual market).

Whatever. You guys just keep spending your time playing with numbers that aren't even close to reflecting reality. I guess that is what it takes for you to sleep well at night...

"Figures are not always facts." -- Aesop
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6861/disneygraphqj8.gifAs people can see, he claims that they have nothing to do with sales in 2006, even though common sense (which he said people should use) would lead us to sales either going up significantly in 2007 to support his 925k number, or conflicting with the $15 million number taken from the HD DVD group's claim.

The Disney chart shows the HD DVD sales for December being 57% higher (212k/135k) than January's. If wnorris' claim of 500k for January was right, the Disney chart was showing the same percentage of sales for each month, and the kinds of sales were relative, that would mean that December had 785k of sales (spread out the way wnorris speculated). At $20 per disc that would be more than the $15 million the HD DVD group numbers work out to for all of 2006.

Using common sense seems like a good idea to me. :)

--Darin

Rather than the sales ratio, the 36% decline in sales between Dec and Jan for HD DVD is the bad news. In a new product you want growth and the BD graph looks way better. In fact of any data I have (if this is accurately capturing the market), this is the most compelling case for BD - The fact that HD DVD is showing negative growth. That is terrible if you want to publish content to one format...

However, I'm surprised that even with CR data that HD DVD got 30% of the overall market. Plus that CR did such a huge % of the BD market....

HD DVD really needs to show they have reversed the negative growth problem.

There is no surprise at the 36% declines. December is a hot month and January is not. This is also reflected in the number of titles sold in January and February. This also shows clearly that the sales of HD DVD hardware at this point is not sufficient to cope for the lack of title. You need both to generate sales increase. Blu-Ray’s strategy covers both and it shows.

It will interesting to see what will happen to the sales ratio in May and June which are 2 good months and are already populated with a significant number of release some of them being really good.

Notation to above: Per the data from Nielsen (assuming that the data wasn't horribly tainted from 3/11), HD DVD didn't hold 30% of the sales volume; it held just over 18%, giving Blu-ray a better than 4 to 1 sales advantage that week.

Of course, I don't expect these numbers to persist even into next week's figures, but it's still an eye opener to see what happens when a moderate blockbuster title gets thrown into the mix.

Notation to above: Per the data from Nielsen (assuming that the data wasn't horribly tainted from 3/11), HD DVD didn't hold 30% of the sales volume; it held just over 18%, giving Blu-ray a better than 4 to 1 sales advantage that week.

Of course, I don't expect these numbers to persist even into next week's figures, but it's still an eye opener to see what happens when a moderate blockbuster title gets thrown into the mix.

Exact, the total number of sales is so low on both side that a single title could cause significant change in the sales ratio for a given week. This is why I believe May and June will be interesting with close to identical release in terms of quantity and quality on both sides.

icemage,

Of course, I don't expect these numbers to persist even into next week's figures, but it's still an eye opener to see what happens when a moderate blockbuster title gets thrown into the mix.

then it will be interesting to see what happens when the Matrix gets released.

On the other hand, many BD supporters believe that only recent titles and blockbusters will show the sales surge effect. I asked ASJ what would happen if Star Wars were released on BD. He claimed it would sell fewer titles than Casino Royale.

This is how those new numbers look with my slightly higher start numbers. I decided Mandato wasn't correct.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/nielsenvolchartmar18.jpg

Start numbers (Jan 1 07)

BD
355,698

HD
555,778

Exact, the total number of sales is so low on both side that a single title could cause significant change in the sales ratio for a given week. This is why I believe May and June will be interesting with close to identical release in terms of quantity and quality on both sides.

April 10th may not be a bad litmus test as the same three titles and only these titles are released on both formats:

A Scanner Darkly, Payback and Dog Day Afternoon

Not big hitters, but...

Notation to above: Per the data from Nielsen (assuming that the data wasn't horribly tainted from 3/11), HD DVD didn't hold 30% of the sales volume; it held just over 18%, giving Blu-ray a better than 4 to 1 sales advantage that week.

Of course, I don't expect these numbers to persist even into next week's figures, but it's still an eye opener to see what happens when a moderate blockbuster title gets thrown into the mix.

Nice work, and great analysis. So, two weeks in a row at > 4:1 ... that's gnarly! :)

Now where is that thread where some posters stated that we would never see the ratios that high? (It was from a couple of months ago, around the time of the infamous FOX chart, showing ... 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, etc.)

Ok, so if we assume then that Nielsen is reporting on 70% of sales per week, then the new numbers would be:

Blu-ray: 93,669
HD DVD: 21,808
These numbers match pretty well with the rumors that Casino Royale will very soon be the first HD title to sell more than 100.000 copies.

Either way, our sales ratio is 4.3:1 (and two weeks in a row!)
:D

ilka,

Now where is that thread where some posters stated that we would never see the ratios that high? (It was from a couple of months ago, around the time of the infamous FOX chart, showing ... 2:1, 3:1, 4:1, etc.)

Let us remember that chart completely ok. Fox predicted steadily increasing sales of BD discs. If you look at Fozziwig's chart, what do you see? BD lost 50% of its sales volume in 2 weeks. This is not consistent with Fox's prediction.

Also, the increase in ratio that you mention, and ASJ loves to mention is the result of a proportionally greater drop in HD sales as compared to BD sales in the first week. Hence the increase in the ratio. If you want to say BD is winning over that time period because it is falling more slowly, then be my guest. It is a bit of an odd conclusion though.

The recovery is probably due to CR. So the question to be asked, and answered soon, is what will happen to sales once CR is tapped out.

Josh,

Either way, our sales ratio is 4.3:1 (and two weeks in a row!)

You do realize that in the first week of the 4.3 ratio BD sales actually fell about 50%? This is something to crow about?

then it will be interesting to see what happens when the Matrix gets released.

On the other hand, many BD supporters believe that only recent titles and blockbusters will show the sales surge effect. I asked ASJ what would happen if Star Wars were released on BD. He claimed it would sell fewer titles than Casino Royale.

I don't doubt for a second that "The Matrix" would sell tons on any format, though I do feel that the box set route (especially so high priced of one) will hurt the sales of "The Matrix" on HD DVD... as a lot of people I know didn't care that much for the second and third films.

If Warner Bros. were to release "The Matrix" on HD DVD (by itself), I do believe it would help HD DVDs numbers that week... but without it, I see Pirates steamrolling over the box set numbers...

~Alan

then it will be interesting to see what happens when the Matrix gets released.
Agreed. It will be an interesting litmus test to see whether the marketing draw of the Matrix trilogy will overcome the price tag.

On the other hand, many BD supporters believe that only recent titles and blockbusters will show the sales surge effect. I asked ASJ what would happen if Star Wars were released on BD. He claimed it would sell fewer titles than Casino Royale.
I doubt that he's right, but we've got pretty good evidence so far that typical catalog titles are not bringing much influence into the sales figures.

Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 and The Matrix Collection are both going to be interesting case studies for 5/22, that much is certain.

From the evidence we have, day and date titles do better than catalog. Strong box office titles do better than weak titles. None of this is, of course, unexpected, but what's most interesting to me is just how little impact weak catalog titles are having even when they have no other content to compete against.

Alan,

I don't doubt for a second that "The Matrix" would sell tons on any format, though I do feel that the box set route (especially so high priced of one) will hurt the sales of "The Matrix" on HD DVD... as a lot of people I know didn't care that much for the second and third films.

I agree the box set deal will hurt.

As to selling. Well, it will be an interesting test of the accuracy of the BD brain trust, to be sure. Again, people like ASJ say that old films including blockbusters dont really have much of an effect - again, ASJ claims that Star Wars would sell fewer copies than CR. If he is right, then sales of the Matrix will be virtually non-existent.

icemage,

Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 and The Matrix Collection are both going to be interesting case studies for 5/22, that much is certain.

they will be, but I am not sure how to treat them. One cant look at simple sales numbers, as the two Pirates flicks are selling as individual titles, and the Matrix is a box set. So, does each Matrix sale actually count as 3 discs, or should one look at dollar volume. Who knows.

icemage,

then it will be interesting to see what happens when the Matrix gets released.


It certainly will. I'm interested in seeing the comparison of the Matrix box set sales spike VS the 2 Pirates of the Carribean movies. If you noticed there are polls related to which will sell better going on in the respective format forums, and of course the winner of the poll is the forum's choice format. Things are going to continue to evolve and get interesting, especially a month out from now when concrete Europe numbers are available (the PS3 launch isn't going amazing or so I hear)

icemage,



they will be, but I am not sure how to treat them. One cant look at simple sales numbers, as the two Pirates flicks are selling as individual titles, and the Matrix is a box set. So, does each Matrix sale actually count as 3 discs, or should one look at dollar volume. Who knows.


I think the box set is going to hurt them a bit as some people will hold off for just the first film. I know thats what I'll do when the Blu-ray release comes around someday. I already have the Ultimate Matrix on DVD and am only really interested in a HD version of the first.

I think the 15k estimate for the last week for HD DVD supports that the 5.6k estimate is off. HD DVD didn't have releases either week and I don't see why they would have that big a disparity. I know the numbers support it, but seems like more reason to question them.

Looks like titles #2 through #5 only accounted for about 26% of the sales for "Casino Royale". So, looks like it probably did outsell all other BDs for the week and also outsold all HD DVDs for the week.

--Darin

This is how those new numbers look with my slightly higher start numbers. I decided Mandato wasn't correct.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/nielsenvolchartmar18.jpg

Start numbers (Jan 1 07)

BD
355,698

HD
555,778
If your spike to 79K is correct, perhaps the two missing days of reporting ending 03.11 theory is correct. O/W if both formats had sales that declined like that, then we have a bigger problem for highdef disks in general.

I thought Casino Royale alone sold 85k+ copies on week 1. Yet the chart shows 65k total for Blu-ray. Doesn't make sense. Are all the Casino Royale total accounted for?

You do realize that in the first week of the 4.3 ratio BD sales actually fell about 50%? This is something to crow about?

Yes. Blu-ray was more successful at "weathering the storm" than HD DVD. This is a sign of strength for the format.

I thought Casino Royale alone sold 85k+ copies on week 1. Yet the chart shows 65k total for Blu-ray. Doesn't make sense. Are all the Casino Royale total accounted for?

As mentioned previously on other posts, the Nielson Videoscan numbers only account for some 66/70% of the total market. If you project it out, I believe its more in lined.

I thought Casino Royale alone sold 85k+ copies on week 1. Yet the chart shows 65k total for Blu-ray. Doesn't make sense. Are all the Casino Royale total accounted for?The 85k+ wasn't sell through. It was sold to dealers.

--Darin

Looks like titles #2 through #5 only accounted for about 26% of the sales for "Casino Royale". So, looks like it probably did outsell all other BDs for the week and also outsold all HD DVDs for the week.

--Darin
Furthermore, if you remove Casino Royal, you end up with even HD DVD and Blu-Ray sales.

Either way, our sales ratio is 4.3:1 (and two weeks in a row!)

There is no way we can really accept last week's numbers. They are plain wrong (for various reasons we have discussed).

The current week's 4:1 numbers, I guess, were expected because of CR (though I can't figure out why people liked this bond movie - I didn't).

Let us remember that chart completely ok. Fox predicted steadily increasing sales of BD discs. If you look at Fozziwig's chart, what do you see? BD lost 50% of its sales volume in 2 weeks. This is not consistent with Fox's prediction.Their prediction and chart referenced general trends. You can't look at one or two weeks during the slowest sales months of the year and declare their prediction to be wrong. They've already surpassed the [widely ridiculed] 3:1 prediction by a good margin. Where are the apologies from those who said that prediction was absurd?

As to selling. Well, it will be an interesting test of the accuracy of the BD brain trust, to be sure. Again, people like ASJ say that old films including blockbusters dont really have much of an effect - again, ASJ claims that Star Wars would sell fewer copies than CR. If he is right, then sales of the Matrix will be virtually non-existent.

I see ASJ's point given the low numbers of people currently with either Blu-Ray or HD DVD. For instance, let's look at the type of people who are most likely to have bought into High-Def media.

Early Adopters: People with money to burn and film films.
These are the type of people who would come near buying the Indiana Jones trilogy over "Saw III" (the best selling Blu-Ray disc title until CR).

Video Gamers
These are the type of people who will buy "Saw III" over Indiana Jones.

I'm somewhere in the middle of these groups, so I'm not insulting anybody, but rather stating a point.

However, "Star Wars,", "The Matrix" (at least the first movie), POTC I & II, and several other films appeal to both crowds.

I can see ASJ's point and I agree with him mostly, but I disagree with his opinion on Star Wars...

~Alan

Furthermore, if you remove Casino Royal, you end up with even HD DVD and Blu-Ray sales.How do you figure that? Even if CR was 2/3rds of BD sales, the rest of BD would have outsold HD DVD by a fair amount. Are you assuming that CR accounted for a much higher percentage of BD sales?

--Darin

Furthermore, if you remove Casino Royal, you end up with even HD DVD and Blu-Ray sales.And if you remove Toshiba you have no standalone HD DVD players. What's your point?

I asked ASJ what would happen if Star Wars were released on BD. He claimed it would sell fewer titles than Casino Royale.
I agree with ASJ.

I firmly believe that blockbuster, new releases will outsell blockbuster classics... even Star Wars. Too many people already have the box sets (myself included, of course) on DVD. The upgrade will not be as universal as the move towards new blockbusters that no one already owns.

And, IMO, the only way the Matrix trilogy could possibly outsell CR, is if you count all 3 movies. Even then, I bet it will be a long time before the Matrix catches up.

There is no way we can really accept last week's numbers. They are plain wrong (for various reasons we have discussed).

The current week's 4:1 numbers, I guess, were expected because of CR (though I can't figure out why people liked this bond movie - I didn't).

If you can't accept last week's numbers, then you can't accept any of these numbers. Period. The week is the variable, and the source is the constant. We know they have corrected data before, and unless we see a correction (like with the combos), we must assume that the data is correct.

Let us remember that chart completely ok. Fox predicted steadily increasing sales of BD discs. If you look at Fozziwig's chart, what do you see? BD lost 50% of its sales volume in 2 weeks. This is not consistent with Fox's prediction.Looks like they were way off with how fast the BD side would grow. On the other hand, one of the big problems a lot of people around here had with the chart was that it showed HD DVD sales as flat. Looks like they were actually overly optimistic for HD DVD up until now (we still have next weeks releases that could change things).

--Darin

I asked ASJ what would happen if Star Wars were released on BD. He claimed it would sell fewer titles than Casino Royale.
I agree with ASJ... at least in the relative short run.

I firmly believe that blockbuster, new releases will outsell blockbuster classics... even Star Wars (again, in the relative short run.) Too many people already have the box sets (myself included, of course) on DVD. The upgrade will not be as universal as the move towards new blockbusters that no one already owns.

And, IMO, the only way the Matrix trilogy could possibly outsell CR, is if you count all 3 movies. Even then, I bet it will be a long time before the Matrix catches up.

Their prediction and chart referenced general trends. You can't look at one or two weeks during the slowest sales months of the year and declare their prediction to be wrong. They've already surpassed the [widely ridiculed] 3:1 prediction by a good margin. Where are the apologies from those who said that prediction was absurd?

In addition, the ridiculed assertion that new releases of blockbuster movies would lead to substantial disc sales.

If you can't accept last week's numbers, then you can't accept any of these numbers. Period. The week is the variable, and the source is the constant. We know they have corrected data before, and unless we see a correction (like with the combos), we must assume that the data is correct.

Wrong. Pls go back and read why one week's data can be wrong because we use first alert and don't get wednesday's updated data. Besides, our source (Grubert & the magazine) have confirmed that the decresease our numbers show are significantly off.

There is no reason why HD DVD or BD numbers would dive so deeply down one week and recover the next.

what's most interesting to me is just how little impact weak catalog titles are having even when they have no other content to compete against.
Doesn't surprise me a bit. Shows we are moving out of the early adopter/movie-fanatic phase and on to the next. For the next year or two, look for day and date, new release blockbusters to dominate

I am not sure what % of total sales were madeup by CR. However, for all the studios other than Sony they will be looking at how 'their' titles did. For them CR is irrelevant, just as the PS3 sales are irrelevant for Panny and Pio.

So, I will be interested in knowing how many non CR disks were sold in BD v. total HD DVD disks. That will tell us what % of the business on HD was done by a Non Sony studio and how it compared across the 2 formats. I know people here like to analyze data and that is one way you go about analyzing data.

Talk on the other hand is asking a rhetorical question that is meaningless and of no analytic interest.

Wrong. Pls go back and read why one week's data can be wrong because we use first alert and don't get wednesday's updated data. Besides, our source (Grubert & the magazine) have confirmed that the decresease our numbers show are significantly off.

There is no reason why HD DVD or BD numbers would dive so deeply down one week and recover the next.

I know they are significantly off. I have showed that using Disney's numbers, Nielsen is only reporting 70%. That would mean that what we have seen weekly is off by 30% - which is significant. That doesn't change the fact that there could have been a drop. Yes, one week's data can be wrong, but Nielsen will then correct and annotate the following weeks data to reflect the correction. Why should we expect any less for last week?

Furthermore, if you remove Casino Royal, you end up with even HD DVD and Blu-Ray sales.
Weak.

Any time a blockbuster sells like crazy, it's going to rob sales from elsewhere.

Didn't Fox say they were going to ship 70K disks a week? Didn't they show HD DVD disk sales declining over the Summer? How about backing that up?

ilka,



Let us remember that chart completely ok. Fox predicted steadily increasing sales of BD discs. If you look at Fozziwig's chart, what do you see? BD lost 50% of its sales volume in 2 weeks. This is not consistent with Fox's prediction.

Also, the increase in ratio that you mention, and ASJ loves to mention is the result of a proportionally greater drop in HD sales as compared to BD sales in the first week. Hence the increase in the ratio. If you want to say BD is winning over that time period because it is falling more slowly, then be my guest. It is a bit of an odd conclusion though.

The recovery is probably due to CR. So the question to be asked, and answered soon, is what will happen to sales once CR is tapped out.

Josh,



You do realize that in the first week of the 4.3 ratio BD sales actually fell about 50%? This is something to crow about?
George...

you gotta' be kidding me!

So now your saying that Fox's, forecast chart should have predicted every crest AND trough?!?!

Now that would be something. If you possess any amount of the skill this would require, I'd really like to talk to you about some stocks. You and I could buy out Bill Gates within a year!!!

I know they are significantly off. I have showed that using Disney's numbers, Nielsen is only reporting 70%. That would mean that what we have seen weekly is off by 30% - which is significant. That doesn't change the fact that there could have been a drop. Yes, one week's data can be wrong, but Nielsen will then correct and annotate the following weeks data to reflect the correction. Why should we expect any less for last week?

Couple of clarifications.

We don't know what numbers Nielsen is reporting. Again, we don't know what numbers Nielsen is reporting. We only know the ratios. We can easily come up with Disney numbers using Nielsen (BTW, where did Disney get their numbers, if not Nielsen ? - also do those numbers include combos ?).

As I said you need to go back and read. Since the ratios are what we are using - slight changes in reported ratios make big changes in numbers.

In your telescope example the more serious person ends up owning more magazines than the less serious person. But here it seems like you are trying to claim that the more serious person for HD will own less titles.

I think your analogy would be more appropriate to your Netflix claim if you said that the more serious person would go rent the magazines from the library and then take them back while the less serious person would buy a few, but then that wouldn't help your point.

--Darin
No no no. The serious guy may spend more, but he will make an effort to minimize his cost. If Netflix were a book-of-the-month club, yes HD owners would keep them, but it's not. They buy only the ones they want to keep.

The huge number of casual PS3 owners will buy a few disks and be done with it.

Their prediction and chart referenced general trends. You can't look at one or two weeks during the slowest sales months of the year and declare their prediction to be wrong. They've already surpassed the [widely ridiculed] 3:1 prediction by a good margin. Where are the apologies from those who said that prediction was absurd?

Their prediction was that they would double sales every week (based BTW, on two weeks of data in December !!).

I'm willing to accept their apaology for putting out something truly so ridiculous.

I very much appreciate all your enthusiasm and the effort all of you have put into dissecting the sales numbers, but IMO all this incredibly detailed analysis is starting to resemble the proverbial counting of angels on a pinpoint - while it may be academically very interesting and fun, it has little impact on the real world.

Regardless of how accurate these sales numbers may or may not be, the overall high-def software sales are currently so, so low compared to dvd sales - even to the extent that one major release (Casino Royale) appears to have outsold all other BD discs combined as well as all HD discs combined, for the week - that the relative numbers of BD v. HD discs sold IMO has virtually no effect on the commitments/decisions of hardware/software companies or retailers on either side.

IMO, until the software and hardware sales numbers are much higher, to the extent that a company may commit to one side or another or become neutral, it will much, much more likely be due to reasons other than whether one side sells a few thousand more discs per day than the other side.

I am not sure what % of total sales were madeup by CR. However, for all the studios other than Sony they will be looking at how 'their' titles did. For them CR is irrelevant, just as the PS3 sales are irrelevant for Panny and Pio.The sales are definitely relevant to the other studios as far as looking at what movies from them with similar popularity are likely to do.
Didn't Fox say they were going to ship 70K disks a week? Didn't they show HD DVD disk sales declining over the Summer? How about backing that up?Yes, how about backing that up and showing where Fox showed HD DVD disc sales declining over the summer. They don't need to back something up if they didn't show it.

--Darin

Couple of clarifications.

We don't know what numbers Nielsen is reporting. Again, we don't know what numbers Nielsen is reporting. We only know the ratios. We can easily come up with Disney numbers using Nielsen (BTW, where did Disney get their numbers, if not Nielsen ? - also do those numbers include combos ?).

As I said you need to go back and read. Since the ratios are what we are using - slight changes in reported ratios make big changes in numbers.

Yes, we are using sales ratios. We are then inputing unit data against these sales ratios to to get estimated unit sales. What we can see is that the data Disney provided for January is higher than our prediction (which is only 70% of what Disney reports). More importantly, the sales ratio using Disney's unit data matches perfectly with Nielson's ratios, indicating that combos are included.

What we need to do, is replace January 28 data with that provided by Disney and recompute the unit data. I believe Icemage is working that right now.

IMO, until the software and hardware sales numbers are much higher, to the extent that a company may commit to one side or another or become neutral, it will much, much more likely be due to reasons other than whether one side sells a few thousand more discs per day than the other side.

The problem with that is that there are a lot of people who will simply not buy into either format until one is declared a winner, and because of that, both formats may soon hit a temporary ceiling where less people are coming in and sales ratios don't increase as much.

~Alan

I agree with ASJ... at least in the relative short run.

Yep, we were talking first week sales i believe...in the long run, star wars will probably draw even or more likely pass CR. Most "normal" people tend to stay away from too much double dipping - it hurts the wallet.

three things, firstly I don't think Fox predicted numbers, only ratio's. So far there has been no 50% drop in the ratio. So far, their claims seem to be accurate.

Secondly, I don't believe that 85k for CR was for week one, I think that's just total sales. Either way the claim that with out it both formats would be 50/50 isn't likely. Why would this week buck the trend?

Not sure why we would leave out particular titles, unless they were from a neutral studio that had released on one format first. The matrix will sell well but not enough to win the week.

Finally, Disney were a bit misleading with that graph, the numbers are correct but the lines wouldn't look like that if they were correctly plotted!

Nice work, and great analysis. So, two weeks in a row at > 4:1 ... that's gnarly! :)

I guess the 3.5:1 ratio of Fox was right after all :)

What we need to do, is replace January 28 data with that provided by Disney and recompute the unit data. I believe Icemage is working that right now.

You mean like this ?

http://img400.imageshack.us/img400/8753/disneynumbersor5.gif (http://imageshack.us)

You mean like this ?

http://img400.imageshack.us/img400/8753/disneynumbersor5.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Yes, except that the 279/135 break down should be under January 28th data. It would be more accurate to miss 3 days of January sales rather than add 4 days of February sales.

three things, firstly I don't think Fox predicted numbers, only ratio's. So far there has been no 50% drop in the ratio. So far, their claims seem to be accurate.

Here is the original thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=784573&highlight=fox

And the article (sorry to be linking to foxnews).

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,242599,00.html

By the end of the first quarter of 2007, he projected Blu-ray sales to be three to four times higher than HD's.

"By the end of the first quarter, the format war is over," he said, noting Sony's recently released PlayStation 3 game console with a Blu-ray drive had boosted sales.

"I'm selling 70,000 discs a week. Sales are doubling every week. ... Average PS3 owners buy 6 discs," he said.

So, do we see doubling of sales every week ? Do we think avg PS3 owner buying 6 movies ? Do we see Fox selling 70K discs a week ?

PS : I think the sales ratio we see for the latest week is purely co-incidental - but for CR release we won't have the ratio we are seeing. It has been more like 2:1 most of the year ...

Yes, except that the 279/135 break down should be under January 28th data. It would be more accurate to miss 3 days of January sales rather than add 4 days of February sales.

I think Disney included till Feb 4 ... thats why we have a perfect match in the sales ratio. Moreover where else is Disney getting the numbers ?

EDIT: Still calculating

three things, firstly I don't think Fox predicted numbers, only ratio's. So far there has been no 50% drop in the ratio. So far, their claims seem to be accurate.There were numbers over on the left side of the chart. I recall them being much bigger than the numbers we are talking about here.

--Darin

Icemage,

nataraj is correct. The 279/135 ratio should be for Feb 4 data (as the ratio works out perfectly with that data). So don't prorate the data, just plug and let it fly.

So, do we see doubling of sales every week ? Do we think avg PS3 owner buying 6 movies ? Do we see Fox selling 70K discs a week ?

1) No, but they didn't predict that, they claimed it had happened up previously
2) Probably more
3) If the numbers are right, and I'm sure they are, no.

This is the aforementioned chart (http://img144.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=69506_fox_graphic_122_455lo.jpg)

The numbers ARE much higher than they predicted but to be honest the only thing I focused on was the ratio, that's the main point they were making and they have been right. People were swearing that BD wouldn't outsell HD DVD 2:1 let alone 3:1 and that the figures were a blip and things would return to pre-november numbers after CES

I think the whole discussion now is pretty pointless. It's becoming more and more inevitable that Blu-ray will continue to dominate by a wide margin despite higher prices. We can squabble over a few percent here and there but is there any point? Sales for HD DVD can only slow HD DVD's death

All I will add is that this weeks numbers were very impressive 80:20 two weeks on neilsen too. While I fully expect the number to bounce around it seems that the Blu-ray climbs on average, HD DVD falls

josh,

Yes. Blu-ray was more successful at "weathering the storm" than HD DVD. This is a sign of strength for the format.

what storm? you and beatboy and asj constantly say how dominant BD is, and how the PS3 is a success and the inevitablility of BD. So, why should there be a storm.

talk,

Their prediction and chart referenced general trends. You can't look at one or two weeks during the slowest sales months of the year and declare their prediction to be wrong. They've already surpassed the [widely ridiculed] 3:1 prediction by a good margin. Where are the apologies from those who said that prediction was absurd?

What an amazing bit of selectivity. Two things. Fox predicted steadily increasing sales. They predicted steadily increasing sales during the slowest months of the year. I didnt make the prediction. They did - so yes their prediction is wrong.

Second, are you really go to say with a straight face that Fox predicted the 3:1 ratio because of a decrease in sales? Are you really going to say that is what they meant? They meant that in the face of a doubling of weekly sales.

Sketcha,

Should they predict troughs? I dont know, but they predicted a weekly doubling of sales. There is a big difference between that, and the actual sales volume.

camaj,

The numbers ARE much higher than they predicted but to be honest the only thing I focused on was the ratio, that's the main point they were making and they have been right

and your, and most people's focus on ratios without context is exactly what is wrong. I said it before, the 4:1 ratio for the first week occured in the face of a significant sales drop for both formats. The meaning of that 4:1 ratio is very different than the ratio for the second week which shows an increase in BD sales. That seems to be the main issue that most of the BD boys want to ignore.

Yep, we were talking first week sales i believe...in the long run, star wars will probably draw even or more likely pass CR. Most "normal" people tend to stay away from too much double dipping - it hurts the wallet.

yes you are right about double dipping..........

but for the moment, just imagine perfect transfer of SW EP3 with PCM or DTS-HD MASTER audio :)......., do you thing that it can't outdo CR now ? Or what about EP4 :) ? I am sure it will sell like crazy...........

Marek

Icemage,

nataraj is correct. The 279/135 ratio should be for Feb 4 data (as the ratio works out perfectly with that data). So don't prorate the data, just plug and let it fly.
It's not that simple. The ratio looks good on paper but the numbers don't come out even like you'd expect. Nataraj's calculation using my sheet shows 135K instead of 137K for instance.

I'm toying with the numbers now to see if I can find a set that comes closer, but it doesn't look like bringing the numbers closer together helps.

As such, it doesn't appear that Disney is using Nielsen data from February 4th. Per Nielsen's YTD ratios on 2/4, if Blu-ray has 279K on 2/4, then HD DVD should have had 135K.

I'd go with nataraj's calculation for now, as it's about as close as we're going to get probably.

what storm? you and beatboy and asj constantly say how dominant BD is, and how the PS3 is a success and the inevitablility of BD. So, why should there be a storm.

The US is considered one the strongest economies in the world, yet the stock market fluctuates daily, sometime drastically taking large dips and gains. Are you suggesting that the home media market is stronger and more predictable than the US market as a whole?

Yes, except that the 279/135 break down should be under January 28th data. It would be more accurate to miss 3 days of January sales rather than add 4 days of February sales.

I disagree. At any rate, all Tuesdays (release days) should be included, because weekly sales are concentrated around that time. Adding Feb 1-4 (Thu-Sun) is not as serious as missing Jan 29-31 (Mon-Wed).

However, for all the studios other than Sony they will be looking at how 'their' titles did. For them CR is irrelevantIt's not, because purchases of CR surely eat into purchases of other titles. There isn't unlimited elasticity in the demand curve. CR is important because it indicates what sort of success they can have when their own blockbusters are released.

- Talk

Actually, most media-based reporting services are week-to-week on Tuesdays. NPD's figures for January also included 5 weeks of data, for instance.

As such, I think nataraj's projection is fine for discussion.

josh,

The US is considered one the strongest economies in the world, yet the stock market fluctuates daily, sometime drastically taking large dips and gains. Are you suggesting that the home media market is stronger and more predictable than the US market as a whole?

who me, no. I said you and beatboy and asj do. Read your posts - essentially BD can do no wrong, and even bad data are good (e.g. ASJ saying that the PS3 only selling 130K units in Feb is actually ok). So, given ya'lls previous posting history, the drop in sales over 2 weeks have been surprising.

It's not that simple. The ratio looks good on paper but the numbers don't come out even like you'd expect. Nataraj's calculation using my sheet shows 135K instead of 137K for instance.

I'm looking at this ... so, 135K is the correct number. Where are you seeing 137K ?

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6861/disneygraphqj8.gif

Didn't Fox show HD DVD disk sales declining over the Summer? How about backing that up?How about we wait until summer to see if it's true?

who me, no. I said you and beatboy and asj do. Read your posts - essentially BD can do no wrong, and even bad data are good (e.g. ASJ saying that the PS3 only selling 130K units in Feb is actually ok). So, given ya'lls previous posting history, the drop in sales over 2 weeks have been surprising.
Glass half full, glass half empty. The question is what is happening to HD DVD sales. This is now two weeks running of very weak sales due to lack of releases. HD DVD still has one more week of this before it gets some relief.

And yes, I am aware the data from 3/11 and/or 3/4 are possibly tainted, but the raw sales projections don't change; you can tweak the numbers and make one week show more sales, but only at the cost of other weekly sales.

I'm looking at this ... so, 135K is the correct number. Where are you seeing 137K ?

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/6861/disneygraphqj8.gif
Hmm.. never mind, I'm blind as a bat. You're right. I read the chart wrong. :) Percentages look good this way. With that in mind, I might be able to dial in a bit more... more anon.

josh,



who me, no. I said you and beatboy and asj do. Read your posts - essentially BD can do no wrong, and even bad data are good (e.g. ASJ saying that the PS3 only selling 130K units in Feb is actually ok). So, given ya'lls previous posting history, the drop in sales over 2 weeks have been surprising.


If you have two horses, and one wins every time they race, than one is clearly better than the other. It doesn't mater if it takes 40 seconds to get around the track or 40 minutes. If one always wins, it is clearly better. Its that simple.

Sales are doubling every week.So, do we see doubling of sales every week ?They didn't say sales will double every week, they said they are. Present tense, not future tense. Do you doubt that sales in the weeks after the PS3 launch doubled from pre-launch? Obviously sales can't continue to double every week, within three months you'd go from 4K sales/week to 32M, and three months later you'd be at 268B/week.

There is no reason why HD DVD or BD numbers would dive so deeply down one week and recover the next.

Most of the numbers, I think, come from booking of pre-orders on release day. That is, when pre-orders turn into actual sales.

Without new releases, there are not pre-order bookings (which represent an accumulation of 1-2 months of purchase activity) and all sales activity is replaced solely with stock sales.

Even the Amazon sale didn't result in massive unit counts, and definitely cannibalized sales that would have gone to other other vendors.

It seems to confirm, strongly, that title releases are the real driver of unit sales in the statistics.

Gary

http://endrop.com/album/photos/zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=zm4yg2mvmkqmibwztyyw.jpg)



http://img400.imageshack.us/img400/8753/disneynumbersor5.gif (http://imageshack.us)

For comparison.

Updated chart, with a line-of-best fit match against the Disney figures for HD DVD (assumably for YTD 2/4/07):

http://endrop.com/album/photos/dyetzgylt4qitjynnybh.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=dyetzgylt4qitjynnybh.jpg)

1) No, but they didn't predict that, they claimed it had happened up previously

"I'm selling 70,000 discs a week. Sales are doubling every week. ... Average PS3 owners buy 6 discs," he said.

He says "sales are doubling every week". This is present continuous (IIRC) and certainly doesn't pertain just to the past.

It's becoming more and more inevitable that Blu-ray will continue to dominate by a wide margin despite higher prices. We can squabble over a few percent here and there but is there any point?

That is your opinion - not derived from the numbers we have.

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/7492/foxgraphic122455ya6.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

According to this, they should be selling 250K per week. Obviously wrong. Infact the actual BD sales look more like the HD DVD line ...

edit : added back disappeared chart

Updated chart, with a line-of-best fit match against the Disney figures for HD DVD (assumably for YTD 2/4/07):

http://endrop.com/album/photos/dyetzgylt4qitjynnybh.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=dyetzgylt4qitjynnybh.jpg)

Well, that certainly does raise us up a bit more in total sales. Though I doubt HD DVD fans will be happy to see that last weeks data barely moved.

Talk,

They didn't say sales will double every week, they said they are. Present tense, not future tense. Do you doubt that sales in the weeks after the PS3 launch doubled from pre-launch? Obviously sales can't continue to double every week, within three months you'd go from 4K sales/week to 32M, and three months later you'd be at 268B/week.

Go look at the figure linked on this page. The predicted (notice the X-axis goes out to 4/2) steadily climbing sales - they predict a linear increase in sales. And, with the exception of the last 2 weeks, the sales ratio over the time period has been a constant 2:1, and the sales volume has fluctuated widely.

The first week the ratio increased because of a sales DROP. The second week, due to a sales increase.

I know you are a BD insider and apologist, but sometimes the best thing is not to argue when you are wrong.

Incidentally, it occurs to me that, if these Disney-linked charts are accurate, Blu-ray will cross the line of 1 million discs sold through since inception as of the week of March 25. Anyone want to wager whether the BDA makes such an announcement?

They didn't say sales will double every week, they said they are. Present tense, not future tense.

You want to spin this ? Be my guest ...

Sales are doubling every week

Do you doubt that sales in the weeks after the PS3 launch doubled from pre-launch? Obviously sales can't continue to double every week, within three months you'd go from 4K sales/week to 32M, and three months later you'd be at 268B/week.

This was exactly what everyone rediculed fox for in the old thread.

You came to this thread to claim they are somehow "correct". Look at the chart and then say they are correct. Don't see one week's sales (I'm sure you won't come here when the ratio doesn't maintain).

josh,

If you have two horses, and one wins every time they race, than one is clearly better than the other. It doesn't mater if it takes 40 seconds to get around the track or 40 minutes. If one always wins, it is clearly better. Its that simple.

thank you for confirming my post. On the other hand, if two people are drowning, does it really matter who drowns first?

Take away the CR sales, which probably accounted for 2/3 of BD disc sales, and BD sold roughly 25K discs, which if the numbers are correct, would represent the 3rd straight month of BD sales decline. That puts the ratio, not at 4:1 but more like 1.5:1. That wouldnt be pretty.

We shall see what happens when the CR effect wears off. What would say if the ratio drops back down to 2:1 after the effects of CR wear off?

Most of the numbers, I think, come from booking of pre-orders on release day. That is, when pre-orders turn into actual sales.

That is one explanation. But, I hope retailers are giving actual shipment numbers rather than pre-orders. Afterall pre-orders can be easily cancelled and won't be noticed ... (unlike returns).

That is one explanation. But, I hope retailers are giving actual shipment numbers rather than pre-orders. Afterall pre-orders can be easily cancelled and won't be noticed ... (unlike returns).
I think it's fair to say that pre-orders that convert to sales are being reported correctly (which is why we're seeing big spikes in sales for big titles, for things like Casino Royale and The Departed).

Most of the numbers, I think, come from booking of pre-orders on release day. That is, when pre-orders turn into actual sales.

Without new releases, there are not pre-order bookings (which represent an accumulation of 1-2 months of purchase activity) and all sales activity is replaced solely with stock sales.

Even the Amazon sale didn't result in massive unit counts, and definitely cannibalized sales that would have gone to other other vendors.

It seems to confirm, strongly, that title releases are the real driver of unit sales in the statistics.

Gary
Yup.

Seems someone posted a poll, sometime back on this very subject. ;)

Kosty, where are you bud? :) Remember my post and your response from Jan. 26?

I think the Blu-Ray surge multiple is here to stay, and furthermore, that we'll be heading to 2x, 3x, or 4x the sales ratio soon (and no, I do not work for Fox ... lol). Feb/Mar/Apr looks like a bloodbath for HD-DVD sales, as per the lack of confirmed release dates for this interim period:

from: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9589728&&#post9589728

There's some real classic stuff back there post-CES, when FOX created that firestorm over their projections of ~3.5:1 sales.

josh,



thank you for confirming my post. On the other hand, if two people are drowning, does it really matter who drowns first?

Take away the CR sales, which probably accounted for 2/3 of BD disc sales, and BD sold roughly 25K discs, which if the numbers are correct, would represent the 3rd straight month of BD sales decline. That puts the ratio, not at 4:1 but more like 1.5:1. That wouldnt be pretty.

We shall see what happens when the CR effect wears off. What would say if the ratio drops back down to 2:1 after the effects of CR wear off?
Yes, and while we're at it, why don't we discount all, future, Blu-ray blockbusters for future sales comparisons. :rolleyes:

Aren't you the one who is so concerned with actual sales volumes? Doesn't it matter what releases each format has? In your own, interesting sort of way, aren't you confirming the Blu-ray mantra of "content," with statements like this?

George, I fear you're going to be the death of me. :)

We shall see what happens when the CR effect wears off. What would say if the ratio drops back down to 2:1 after the effects of CR wear off?Not Josh, but I expect them to come back down. And if they come back to 2:1 and stay that way through June, then I would say that the HD DVD camp would have to change something.

--Darin

sketcha,

George, I fear you're going to be the death of me.

well, that would be horrible :( :( :( , and not something I want.

Yes, and while we're at it, why don't we discount all, future, Blu-ray blockbusters for future sales comparisons.

Not at all. However the point I was making was that the spike in sales was probably due to 1 title. What happens when the blockbusters are finished? The studios want to be able to resell their catalog because of declining DVD sales. If HD optical discs are dependent on recent blockbusters, then its longevity can legitimately be questioned.

Darin,

And if they come back to 2:1 and stay that way through June, then I would say that the HD DVD camp would have to change something.

Here is the thing though, the BD brain trust keeps talking of World Domination and crushing and inevitablity of BD and all the rest. If the ratio stays at a constant 2:1 ratio that would indicate something of a stalemate and a prolongation of the format war.

sketcha,

well, that would be horrible :( :( :( , and not something I want.
Glad to hear you don't want me dead! :)



Not at all. However the point I was making was that the spike in sales was probably due to 1 title. What happens when the blockbusters are finished? The studios want to be able to resell their catalog because of declining DVD sales. If HD optical discs are dependent on recent blockbusters, then its longevity can legitimately be questioned.
Uh, a spike?

Take a look at the BD figures in the chart. Not much of a spike. The 4:1 ratio came mainly from a plummet from HD DVD.

Also, are you saying that Hollywood is done producing blockbusters? Is the movie industry folding? I haven't heard this.

HD catalog titles will sell over time. The blockbusters will just settle the war.

Now that the Disney chart shows how they believe sales from the last months of 2006 related to sales in 2007 so far, I think it is a good time to go back and look at some things wnorris said. I'm hoping he will take his own advice and use some common sense.


As people can see, he claims that they have nothing to do with sales in 2006, even though common sense (which he said people should use) would lead us to sales either going up significantly in 2007 to support his 925k number, or conflicting with the $15 million number taken from the HD DVD group's claim.

The Disney chart shows the HD DVD sales for December being 57% higher (212k/135k) than January's. If wnorris' claim of 500k for January was right, the Disney chart was showing the same percentage of sales for each month, and the kinds of sales were relative, that would mean that December had 785k of sales (spread out the way wnorris speculated). At $20 per disc that would be more than the $15 million the HD DVD group numbers work out to for all of 2006.

Using common sense seems like a good idea to me. :)

--Darin

Wrong. The Disney chart is based on Nielsen data, which is what I'm saying may be wrong. You keep saying that I am incorrect that Nielsen data is flawed, and back up your comment with the same flawed data. I'm saying the Nielsen numbers could be missing a big chunk of sales and might be flawed. So in this case, I'm also saying the Disney chart is wrong, because it is based on the same potentially flawed data.

Nothing I've said would require December to have 785k disc sales. You really need to get a clue and stop misleading people.

Common sense says that you can't use the numbers in dispute to try to prove your point.

Here is the thing though, the BD brain trust keeps talking of World Domination and crushing and inevitablity of BD and all the rest. If the ratio stays at a constant 2:1 ratio that would indicate something of a stalemate and a prolongation of the format war.I don't really agree. While it could if Universal is so dug in that they will stick with the side with 33% then that is possible, but if a constant 2:1 led to Universal going neutral and none of the studios on the 67% side going neutral, then the sustained 2:1 could be a triggering event that would lead to a higher number later. That of course assumes they can hold the 2:1 long enough to cause an allegience switch.

--Darin

Not at all. However the point I was making was that the spike in sales was probably due to 1 title. What happens when the blockbusters are finished? The studios want to be able to resell their catalog because of declining DVD sales. If HD optical discs are dependent on recent blockbusters, then its longevity can legitimately be questioned.

Once the blockbusters are finished, more blockbusters will be there for release.

As far as catalog titles go, one could say that people are less likely to buy catalog titles until the war is over. Another thing is, as long as the people are willing to buy the new blockbuster titles, it becomes kind of clear that once more people come into the format, catalog titles will increase... as well as sales of the new blockbusters since these titles will then become catalog titles...

If the ratio stays at a constant 2:1 ratio that would indicate something of a stalemate and a prolongation of the format war.

In baseball and football, if a game had a 2:1 ratio, would that be considered a stalemate and a prolongation (?) of the game?

~Alan

sketcha,

Last 3 weeks

BD HD

58 30
29 7
77 18

You see the two 4:1 ratios in the last two weeks. In the first week, it is the result of a drop in sales, with the drop being bigger for HD. The spike I was referring to was the jump from 29K to 77K, which is probably due to CR.

Do I think that Hollywood is done producing blockbusters. No, but I also dont think they can "predict" them. I also think that Hollywoods dependence on blockbusters is a large part of their current problem.

Wrong. The Disney chart is based on Nielsen data, which is what I'm saying may be wrong.Of course the data may be wrong. It probably is by at least a few percent. But if you want to go out on a limb and claim that there wasn't a drop of anything close to what Disney reported from December to January then go ahead. Being off by a relatively constant percentage is one thing, but are you going to tell us that the percentage drop that Disney indicated between those two months isn't even close to reality? If so, based on what?

Do you believe that HD DVD sold more discs in January 2007 than December 2006? Do you believe the ~$15 million for HD DVD disc sales for all of 2006 that the HD DVD group's numbers indicate?

--Darin

Comparing those numbers to what we have computed using Icemage's tool:

BD: 193,210 (69%)
HD: 95,078 (70%)

So, we could easily say that Nielson captures 70% of the market, which means all previous unit totals should be multiplied by 1.42 (I think) to get the total number sold that week.

Why can you say that?

Icemage's "tool" is based off Nielsen's sales ratios, with a guess at 2006 sales. The difference between the "tool" and the numbers on the Disney chart is just the error in Icemage's guess.

This chart just shows this "tool" is off by 70% and says nothing about how much of the market Nielsen captures.

alan and darin,

In baseball and football, if a game had a 2:1 ratio, would that be considered a stalemate and a prolongation (?) of the game?

No, but a constant 2:1 ratio would indicate that HD is probably financially viable. It would also indicate that there is not a widening of the gap.

No, but a constant 2:1 ratio would indicate that HD is probably financially viable. It would also indicate that there is not a widening of the gap.The big difference is that in those sports players can't just switch sides during the game. Here, it makes sense to be on the winning side in the long run (even if joining late). So, it behooves each side to not get so far behind that they lose their star players (even if to neutrality).

--Darin

fa,



Where in those two sites did you find information that the sales difference was "wide" as you put it. All I saw were percentages and rankings.

In the absence of any raw numbers, for all you know, the percentages could actually represent rather small absolute numbers. Hence, the difference may not be wide at all.

This is the problem of using percentages without knowing the context.

Yep, DVD Empire may sell 10 HD discs, 7 BD and 3 HD-DVD. In the context of total sales, the low volume would mean nothing. The performance of one retailer is not supporting evidence for Nielsen.

Do I think that Hollywood is done producing blockbusters. No, but I also dont think they can "predict" them. I also think that Hollywoods dependence on blockbusters is a large part of their current problem.

I don't think their dependence on blockbusters is at all a problem, I think it has more to do with the economy. Most people I see are dealing with higher gas prices, higher insurance rates, higher utility bills, higher food prices, etc., and so they aren't going to movies as much (especially because of DVDs and HDTVs make the home viewing so much more appealing), as well as less buying of DVDs.

~Alan

No, but a constant 2:1 ratio would indicate that HD is probably financially viable. It would also indicate that there is not a widening of the gap.

True, but wouldn't Universal and Weinstein be dumb to only release to lesser selling format? So, let's say they were to go neutral or one of the other studios were to go Blu-Ray only. Who would be dumb enough to buy an HD DVD player?

~Alan

If that includes things like freebees Tosh sends or the HD DVD that comes with the 360 add-on - we get a very different picture.

Let us say 25K Tosh players and 25K add-ons are sold per month. That is some 125K in freebees.

Let us assume all the 250K player onwers are netflix users. Also that they rent 4 HD DVDs a month and keep them for a week each. So, a total 1M rentals per month for netflix. Assume there are about 200 titles with 10 releasing every month. Further assume 10% of the onwers want to see a titile quickly. So, netflix needs to keep some 25/4 = 6K copies of each movie. That would also explain why it took me months to get Batman Begin's - even if they upped their order, % of people wanting to see the title must be very high.

Anyway, with all these assumptions, netflix would have bought about 60K titles per month.

Let us say a total of 200K between freebees and rental. That brings us close to what you are talking about. 100K (Neilsen) + 100K (retail not covered) + 125K freebees + 60K rentals.

I'd like to hear anyone who has a better idea about netflix. How many copies do they buy ?

Your understanding is closer to where I'm at now, but that would still leave around 100k discs unaccounted for. So if Nielsen sees 100k discs, and 200k are unaccounted for at retail, it still means Nielsen only catches 33% of sales., which isn't much different than the 25-30% I stated before. The only way I see Nielsen capturing more of the market than that is if more Toshiba players are selling that 25k (like 50k), or rental markets are buying many more, which means a pretty big rental demand.

True, but wouldn't Universal and Weinstein be dumb to only release to lesser selling format? So, let's say they were to go neutral or one of the other studios were to go Blu-Ray only. Who would be dumb enough to buy an HD DVD player?

~Alan

Lets say the 2:1 ratio is maintained and Sony is selling 4-5 million discs on new releases like DVD. Why would BD exclusive studios be dumb enough to leave 2-2.5 million HD-DVD discs sales on the table, ignoring $40-50 million in revenue for each release?

I don't really agree. While it could if Universal is so dug in that they will stick with the side with 33% then that is possible, but if a constant 2:1 led to Universal going neutral and none of the studios on the 67% side going neutral, then the sustained 2:1 could be a triggering event that would lead to a higher number later. That of course assumes they can hold the 2:1 long enough to cause an allegience switch.

--Darin

Darin, so you are arguing that exclusive content is necessary (but not sufficent) to keep a format alive. That 70% share for BD if it is sustained week after week will doom HD DVD. Right? If that were the case, how do you suppose the PS3 will fare as a game console. Since release it has done much worse than 30% share and is that why game developer will shun it as a game console? So, if you believe that 30% share nor exclusive content, nor better value (cost-performance) is sufficent to keep a format alive, then the PS3 probably is doomed as a game console. No? It looks like every month since release it has been steady losing market share to the xbox and the Wii....

This whole argument that only one format can ever succeed is a falasy and when it happens it is an exception rather than the rule - VHS v. beta, DVD v. DiVx are not the norm....we have multiple formats for most things in life. Pre-recorded home has been an exception....until now. I see this as evolution of the market. The notion that some industries are not suitable for competition is not a new argument. It has been argued by every monopolist that ever existed. It has never been shown to be beneficial for the consumer. I am sure the existance of the xbox 360 had soe bearing on the PS3 design....which will have bearing on the next gen xbox. Competition makes companies push the envelope more vigorously.

I would prefer if the HD wars were decided after a 2 year battle in the market....by then the winner will be looking over their shoulder at the next big thing :)

Lets say the 2:1 ratio is maintained and Sony is selling 4-5 million discs on new releases like DVD. Why would BD exclusive studios be dumb enough to leave 2-2.5 million HD-DVD discs sales on the table, ignoring $40-50 million in revenue for each release?

They may feel they can make more money in the long haul by having just one format because of royalities, lower costs to just support one format, and greater consumer confidence (more people are likely to buying into HD discs when there is only one format). Most people do not want two formats.

True, but wouldn't Universal and Weinstein be dumb to only release to lesser selling format? So, let's say they were to go neutral or one of the other studios were to go Blu-Ray only. Who would be dumb enough to buy an HD DVD player?

~Alan

Perhaps the only way to make money on BD is if Sony cuts a studio a deal on royalties and replication. Perhaps Universal was not extended this by Sony. I am not sure how much it costs a studio end-to-end to put a title on 50GB BD v. 30GB HD DVD....that could explain things.

Darin, so you are arguing that exclusive content is necessary (but not sufficent) to keep a format alive. That 70% share for BD if it is sustained week after week will doom HD DVD. Right? If that were the case, how do you suppose the PS3 will fare as a game console. Since release it has done much worse than 30% share and is that why game developer will shun it as a game console? So, if you believe that 30% share nor exclusive content, nor better value (cost-performance) is sufficent to keep a format alive, then the PS3 probably is doomed as a game console. No? It looks like every month since release it has been steady losing market share to the xbox and the Wii....I think right now the PS3 guys should be worried about the gaming market. But as far as surviving, the gaming market is somewhat different. For one thing, all 3 of these companies make their own exclusive games. As far as movies, in the long run it won't be real difficult to release on both formats, depending on features. But if one side ends up with all the content then it is going to be pretty difficult for the other side. Now they have to compete on other factors to get people to buy their stuff even though the people could buy a competing product and get everything. If the gaming market was similar then people could buy one of these systems and be able to play all the games and use all the major accessories.

If one side ends up with some exclusive content (like porn) then that could really keep it going. But if one side gets it all, I'm not sure it is going to make sense for the other side to continue after a while.

--Darin

Why can you say that?

Icemage's "tool" is based off Nielsen's sales ratios, with a guess at 2006 sales. The difference between the "tool" and the numbers on the Disney chart is just the error in Icemage's guess.

This chart just shows this "tool" is off by 70% and says nothing about how much of the market Nielsen captures.
70%? No. Closer to 30-40%, which is pretty much what I calculated previously based on Toshiba's numbers.

I remember somewhere seeing that Nielsen/VideoScan claims roughly 2/3 market coverage. Looking at the results I have in front of me, I'd say they're pretty close in that estimate.

Take off the tinfoil hat. No one is beaming gamma rays to turn you into a Blu-ray supporter, but you need to realize that admitting that HD DVD is losing the sales war right now is not a betrayal of your belief in HD DVD's staying power.

I'm very sorry you do not like the numbers we are arriving at, but if you have nothing substantial to contribute to this line of conversation, I invite you once again to either provide some proof of your claims, or move on and find other threads to participate instead of this one.

They may feel they can make more money in the long haul by having just one format because of royalities and greater consumer confidence (more people are likely to buying into HD discs when there is only one format). Most people do not want two formats.

How do you know 'most people' don't prefer it? Most people don't care about buying $200 DVD Players....let alone $500 and up.

Most people don't seem to have a problem with choices in everything else in their lives. What makes HD movie formats so special? I have devices that use SD Cards, MicroSD cards and Sony Memory sticks (and even Sony has multiple memory stick formats)!

Lets say the 2:1 ratio is maintained and Sony is selling 4-5 million discs on new releases like DVD. Why would BD exclusive studios be dumb enough to leave 2-2.5 million HD-DVD discs sales on the table, ignoring $40-50 million in revenue for each release?

Simple... because in the long run, if they continue to hold on to that sales advantage, it would only be a matter of time before Universal and Weinstein were to switch over which would effectively end any valid reason for someone buying an HD DVD player.

Once that happened, those 2/2.5 million HD DVD disc sales would never go any higher, and probably start dropping like flies, wheras Blu-Ray would continue to grow until there were no reason for them to WANT to switch. It's the same reason studios decided they didn't need the sales generated from DIVX and why most studios no longer release to UMD.

~Alan

sketcha,

Last 3 weeks

BD HD

58 30
29 7
77 18

You see the two 4:1 ratios in the last two weeks. In the first week, it is the result of a drop in sales, with the drop being bigger for HD. The spike I was referring to was the jump from 29K to 77K, which is probably due to CR.

Do I think that Hollywood is done producing blockbusters. No, but I also dont think they can "predict" them. I also think that Hollywoods dependence on blockbusters is a large part of their current problem.
Oh, I see. So your "spike" was over a two week period; not the whole year. Boy, what a terrific use of limited data to spin your point.

Is anyone out there falling for this?

How about you go back just one more week, eh? Come on. Do it for your ol' pal, Sketch. How's about I get ya' started.

70,752

Your spike is roughly 5K, George. Not even 10%. Believe me, I wish it were better, but I'm hoping next weeks numbers will reflect more of the Amazon sale.

So here we are, still debating whether or not last week's drop is even accurate, and you're using it, while discounting the rest of the year to promote you're agenda.

I swear, George, I'm hearin' the angels a' callin' for me.

Hugs

Lets say the 2:1 ratio is maintained and Sony is selling 4-5 million discs on new releases like DVD. Why would BD exclusive studios be dumb enough to leave 2-2.5 million HD-DVD discs sales on the table, ignoring $40-50 million in revenue for each release?If you start by looking at the assumption that Universal and Disney would require the same threshold in order to go exclusive, then a 2:1 ratio that was maintained in Blu-ray's favor would make Universal hit their threshold first. Then that could change the ratio so that Disney wouldn't go neutral. On the other hand, if Universal is more dug in than Disney, then Disney might go neutral first and start a chain that would keep Universal from going neutral. Basically, if one format has a high sales advantage for studios, then it is the exclusives on the lower side that would be leaving the most money on the table by staying exclusive. There are of course more complicating factors, but the idea of leaving money on the table applies to both sides and each side wants to make it cost too much for the other studios not to join them.

--Darin

Perhaps the only way to make money on BD is if Sony cuts a studio a deal on royalties and replication. Perhaps Universal was not extended this by Sony. I am not sure how much it costs a studio end-to-end to put a title on 50GB BD v. 30GB HD DVD....that could explain things.

All of the real confirmed 3rd-party analysis here does confirm that there are additional costs associated with BD-50 production. But as a percent of the studio's MSRP, it is marginal.

Fox's decision to price higher than other studios, for example, far outweighs the incremental cost of production on BD-50.

It's a tired and old red-herring argument that (other than naive newbie posters) should have been put to bed long ago (much like VC-1 or <insert-your-favourite-video-codec-here> always (irrespective of all other 7 factors that contribute to PQ) provides superior PQ.

All of the real confirmed 3rd-party analysis here does confirm that there are additional costs associated with BD-50 production. But as a percent of the studio's MSRP, it is marginal.

Agreed! One must also take into account the fact that most Blu-Ray discs are still on BD-25s as well as the fact that day-and-date titles from Universal are Combo disc titles and not (exactly) 30GB HD DVDs.

Also, during the early days of DVDs, Dual Layer DVDs were more expensive than Single Layer DVDs, yet that didn't stop studios from releasing them, nor did it stop several studios from experimenting with DVD-18s.

Manufacturing costs can come down...

~Alan

How do you know 'most people' don't prefer it? Most people don't care about buying $200 DVD Players....let alone $500 and up.

Most people don't seem to have a problem with choices in everything else in their lives. What makes HD movie formats so special? I have devices that use SD Cards, MicroSD cards and Sony Memory sticks (and even Sony has multiple memory stick formats)!

There won't be enough retail space for two new formats and DVD, and the only studio that wants two formats is Warner.

Now they have to compete on other factors to get people to buy their stuff even though the people could buy a competing product and get everything.

For a long time both formats will have to say they have only a small portion of the content compared to DVD - irrespective of # of studios supporting them.

If HD DVD players do get down in price, it is possible they will start attracting non-early adopters looking to replace their DVD players and that can be a huge market. Perhaps that can narrow the movie sale gap.

The way Tosh exec is looking at it is that BD now has a lead, primarily because of coupons that come with PS3. May be all that Tosh has to do is to change their HD DVD freebees into MIR for any 4 HD DVD that new owners can buy from retail. That will cost more but can increase the sales overnight.

The way Tosh exec is looking at it is that BD now has a lead, primarily because of coupons that come with PS3.

Since January, how many of the top selling Blu-Ray titles have a coupon for it?

~Alan

There won't be enough retail space for two new formats and DVD, and the only studio that wants two formats is Warner.

There isn't enough shelf space for DVD anyway ! Thats why retail gaints are pushing burn-on-demand.

Anyway, in the long run HD DVD studios can phase out DVD and get only combos. That will eliminate shelf space problem.

Since January, how many of the top selling Blu-Ray titles have a coupon for it?

How do I know ?

If you have a point - pls make it.

For a long time both formats will have to say they have only a small portion of the content compared to DVD - irrespective of # of studios supporting them.

If HD DVD players do get down in price, it is possible they will start attracting non-early adopters looking to replace their DVD players and that can be a huge market. Perhaps that can narrow the movie sale gap.Maybe. Kind of a trojan horse thing. But it relies on lower player prices, otherwise people would be more likely to buy the Blu-ray player. While they will both have less content than DVD for a while, salespeople knowing that one format had all the studios and the other didn't wouldn't be a good thing for the one without. But the one without all the studios could make up for it with lower prices, which is one thing I was thinking of as one way to overcome a disadvantage like that. Its just likely to make it much tougher to be profitable.

As far as the rebates, I think they are only good for certain movies and the top ranked movies on Blu-ray haven't been the ones that quality for the most part. But I could be wrong. I just glanced at the rebate coupons and haven't done anything with them.

--Darin

darin,

Darin, think of it this way. There are lots of drugs out there to treat the same condition - for example, there are lots of different anti-depressants. No one company owns all the different antidepressants, and each of them can be economically viable for a company.

Maybe. Kind of a trojan horse thing

Kind of like a PS3 thing.

All of the real confirmed 3rd-party analysis here does confirm that there are additional costs associated with BD-50 production. But as a percent of the studio's MSRP, it is marginal.

How about as a % of net income ? I had done some analysis - you can search for it.

If you can cut cost - you do it. Even a saving of 5% is appreciated ...

Darin, think of it this way. There are lots of drugs out there to treat the same condition - for example, there are lots of different anti-depressants. No one company owns all the different antidepressants, and each of them can be economically viable for a company.I don't think that this is the same kind of thing. Your analogy would apply to different movie studios, but I don't think it applies to different formats with players that only play content for that format. It is more like a phone that would only take calls from certain people, vs a phone that would take calls from everybody (for the situation we are discussing where one side gets all studios).
Kind of like a PS3 thing.Yes, you got what I was alluding to. :)

--Darin

The way Tosh exec is looking at it is that BD now has a lead, primarily because of coupons that come with PS3.

I doubt he thinks that...that is just what he's saying publicly. If he really thinks that he's behind because of coupons, Toshiba should fire him now, because his thinking is incompetent. He is behind primarily because he's up against a game console that has outsold all HD-DVD standalones combined and because his product can't play HD offerings from Disney, Fox, Sony and MGM.

I doubt he thinks that...that is just what he's saying publicly. If he really thinks that he's behind because of coupons, Toshiba should fire him now, because his thinking is incompetent.

You mean like Fox's sales projections (or for that matter Warner's) ...