... We will have to see what wins out. There is no reason why a BD player can't be made for the same price as a HD DVD player - but does Sony (and others) think that is important and spend effort and money towards that goal ?

Well, if you listened to engadget podcast, it left me with the distinct impression that a separate Celeron processor (900 MHz or so) on the latest Toshibas, in addition to all the rest of audio A/V processing, was required just to process Hid/HDi/iHd (or whatever it is called). Does that add cost, or does BD-J require the same? more? less?

The point I'm making is where did you get the figure when "traditionally retailers stop stocking". I'm questioning whether such a beast exists. If so what is the basis for the figure ? How do you know it is not 10:1 or 20:1 ?

We know it exists. Why did retailers stop stocking Betamax? Why did retailers stop stocking VHS? Why did retailers quit stocking Minidisc? Why did retailers quit stocking Cassettes?

I'm going based off what was said by marketing folks. I assumed they knew a bit more about retailers and their market, granted, it was Fox marketing folks and they might be biased, but they did say 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 prolonged sales were tipping points.

The question is - is it just breaking even / making money / losing money. We all know they get a few bucks ... but what are the costs ? Have you done any calculations - have you seen any ?

Currently the models, I beleive, are more like the iTMS - apple doesn't make much moeny (if any at all) of the store - but sells a ton of iPod. So, iTMS becomes cost of doing business.

Selling software over the net I'm almost certain is more than break even.

They've elminated some of the major costs associated with selling these things. They've eliminated inventory which is a huge cost for all retailers, they've eliminated transportation of the product, another huge cost, especially at todays gas prices, they have no manufacturing to pay for to get the product (no pressing discs).

Apple makes more sq. ft. in its retail stores than almost any other company, including Bestbuy and Tiffanys. If you don't think they make money off I-tunes I think you're high. They get great rates for the music from Record Companies (and why wouldn't they, record companies need them (and like services) to keep label music alive and counter mass pirating). There are no packaging costs, no manufacturing costs, no inventory costs, no transportation costs. The only cost was having to create a service (which was investment money long ago for the code, software, etc), purchase the music liscence, and maintain the servers and service. Do you think Google doesn't make money cause they have to maintain a website?

I'm sorry, I completely disagree with you. Software is one of the most profitable businesses and Microsoft is a prime demonstration of that. Their net profit margin is ridiculous because the costs of making software are nothing compared to undertaking the cost of say making a car. Manufacturing costs for software are low, software can be sold online, costs to make software are essentially only the cost of maintaining a work force and the buildings they work in.

It's even less costs if you consider these guys are merely selling software they purchased/liscenced from movie companies, music companies, etc.

Correct. BD got a boost from some new PS3 users who saw the whole catalog as a new option.

But now, HD DVD player sales have continue to grow strongly, and we are seeing a balance return to a more even position.

Any support for this? The HD-DVD add on is the best selling one and it has demonstrated only around 20k a month in the US. There's no evidence to suggest stand alone player sales have become greater.


BD's efforts to reduce player costs will be too little too late to prevent HD DVD from taking the sales lead again, IMO. The players that they are reducing are mostly the same old 1st gen-type players which are lacking in features that HD DVD players already have.

Furthermore, it seems obvious to any objective observer (say that fast :) ) that a big factor in BDA pushing back the mandatory BDJ player profiles is to allow them to continue selling the "cheap" feature-less machines for a longer time.

So even if they get the prices down to $600 this year, it'll be on less desirable machines that do not meet the 1.1 or 2.0 profile specifications.

Uh....Sony is introducing a new player in June for 600. It's not a first gen player, and I guess June would be before the end of the year.


At the end of the day, this is why HD DVD is clawing back the ground so fast...

Again what evidence is there for this? Nielson numbers indicate a 4:1 ratio as of last week. If you going merely by Amazon then it's still behind, albiet they recieved a pretty hefty boost from the Matrix announcement and that has attracted second movie buying.

This is a rather blindered argument.

Given that HD DVD and Bluray movies sales are so close right now, yet Bluray has 15 time the "players" in the market (counting the illustrious PS3, of course), are you SURE that you want to attempt a debate about "attach rates"?? ;)

If you actually count the discs sold and estimate the amount of HD-DVD players out there the attach rates are about 3.5 for HD-DVD and around 0.6 for Blu-ray. Niether is something to really boast about.

15 times? Where do you figure this? I'm estimating around 375,000 HD-DVD players in the US right now, and we have about 1.3 million Blu-ray players. Where do you get 15 to 1?

I see no reason why sales (very small amounts at that) ratio has anything to do with who can take over DVD. One format can clearly with this hidef "battle" only to lose the war to DVD.

What really needs to happen to take on DVD is (not just my idea, but some MR I've read) :

- Players in the $200 range
- Movie prices no more than SD (may be just a couple of bucks more)

The format that achieves these first, can take on DVD and try to win.

All the PS3s in the world will not help you get there. I can clearly see how BD can win the pygmies war but be beaten by DVD & HD DVD in the long run. This is like chosing your primary candidate - do you want someone with partisan appeal or general appeal ;)

Well, I still don't think anyone is going to buy a 200 dollar player they can't see 50% of the most recent movies they saw in the last few years on.

Well, if you listened to engadget podcast, it left me with the distinct impression that a separate Celeron processor (900 MHz or so) on the latest Toshibas ...

The HD-A2 still uses a celeron.

Broadcom MS complete SOC solution is not in the market yet ...

Anyway, I'm talking about strategy (as in where we are heading in the future as well). So don't worry too much about the present about these ...

rdjam,

Are you going to tell us what numbers you use for, ".... yet Bluray has 15 time the "players" in the market (counting the illustrious PS3, of course),... "? You've made claims like this enough that you should be able to give us some ballpark numbers and an explanation of why you chose to use those numbers.

What number do you use for PS3s?
What number do you use for HD DVD players?

Or did you just make the 15x up because it sounded good to you?

--Darin
Your memory is short, grasshopper :) I gave it in another thread when the same discussion was being had.

I'm sure someone here has the basic numbers, but it's too close to bedtime and I can't be bothered to look for the links again..

But something like xxx million PS3s, etc etc

In the other thread I exaggerated for effect saying something like "50 times" the "players". When it was worked out, it came in closer to about 16 times the "players".

I use "players" in inverted commas because it seems clear to all now that the average PS3 owner did not buy it for Bluray movies, since the overall average BD player attach rate (inclusive of the PS3) is logically anywhere from 1/7th to 1/15th that of HD DVD players, when you take the differential between Player sales and movies sales into account.

Well, I still don't think anyone is going to buy a 200 dollar player they can't see 50% of the most recent movies they saw in the last few years on.

Thats the same case with BD. I've always commented there is not much of a competition between 100,000 and 200.

Anyway, HD DVD group thinks content will follow adoption (which follows price). Obviously 0% content will not produce sales at even low prices - but is 50% less price with fewer number of movies better ? We will see ...

Let us remember that while the promised low price of HD DVD has materialized / looks imminent - the much hyped content advantage of BD has no produced obviously visible movie differences (in terms of releases).

...

In the other thread I exaggerated for effect...



Shame on you!

You should resgn your position.

Again with the personal attacks - so predictable for certain folks here.

Anyway, you'll be glad to know that I am talking specifically of the US market - but counting a few extra from Europe might be a really great idea - thanks! ;)

Sure. If someone wants to prove that they aren't very intelligent (even after just saying they were) by making claims about attach rates that show a lack of intelligence, then they can go ahead. I do wonder if those making claims like 15 times the players where they count players in Europe that just sold in the last 2 weeks and sales in Japan while only counting software sales in the US are doing things like that purposely in order to deceive, or if they really don't know enough about this to keep from making claims like that.

Please, back up your 15 times the players by telling us how many of each and then explain why you would use overseas players. Blinded or purposely deceptive would describe that claim, IMO.You are clearly the mostest intelligent here, since you have instantly clocked that math cannot be used to determine a matter which is obviously religious in nature...

There fore, something as simple as the following hypothetical mathematical formulas would have no bearing on said complicated religious issue:

A) if Format H has 100 players and 100 discs, then attach rate = 1. If Format B has 1,500 "players" and 100 discs, then attach rate is 0.0666666666. One can then see that 1 divided by 0.06666666 = 15 times the attach rate.

B) if Format H has 100 players and 100 discs, then attach rate = 1. If Format B has 1,500 "players" and 200 diwscs, then attach rate is 0.133333333. One can then see that 1 divided by 0.13333333 = 7 times the attach rate.

This talk about 4 to 1 is old, the formats are much closer together again.

BTW: If you didn't know a year ago that the PS3 strategy would result in lower attach rates per player but likely higher software sales overall then ...

--DarinVery rich - after all the denials about lower attach rates for months (including above), not we hear that this was the strategy all along so it doesn't matter? :p

Selling software over the net I'm almost certain is more than break even.

I'm sorry, I completely disagree with you.

You are welcome to beleive whatever you want. Since I can't convince you without giving info I can't give you - I'll just let it drop. You can search for iTMS / itunes music store and profit to get some opinion/facts on any of the internets.

Edit : See here - http://www.edn.com/article/CA6406501.html

Apple makes no money on downloads, only on hardware, on purpose. This is both so no one else can easily compete, and because if Apple tried to earn a profit on its iTunes Store sales, the all-powerful music labels would simply raise prices and transfer that incremental profit to themselves, a phenomenon he referred to as "transfer pricing power."

Thats the same case with BD. I've always commented there is not much of a competition between 100,000 and 200.

Anyway, HD DVD group thinks content will follow adoption (which follows price). Obviously 0% content will not produce sales at even low prices - but is 50% less price with fewer number of movies better ? We will see ...

Let us remember that while the promised low price of HD DVD has materialized / looks imminent - the much hyped content advantage of BD has no produced obviously visible movie differences (in terms of releases).

Is it 50% less? The cheapest blu-ray player is 500 dollars retailer and the cheapest HD-DVD player is 400 dollar retail (yes I know you can find them for slightly less, but most retail at 400).

What lower price? Last I heard, HD-DVD (Toshiba, who has been selling these at a loss by most accounts) was saying a 300 price by the fall. The price "JUST" went to 400. You think it gets dropped again so quickly? I doubt it.

In terms of releases? BD has more available today and more on the slate for the year than HD-DVD does. So the content advantage has materialized.

As far as your first statement, no, you can get about 80-85% of all NEW releases if you choose a BD player. And given the fact that NEW movies outsell LIBRARY titles the advantage of Universal is negated.

In terms of NEW releases you're seeing a much bigger advantage to blu. New really does matter, especially to the consumer, who does not want to spend money replacing their DVD library. The money they would spend replacing just a few universal titles would buy them the Blu-ray player instead of an HD-DVD player.

You are welcome to beleive whatever you want. Since I can't convince you without giving info I can't give you - I'll just let it drop. You can search for iTMS / itunes music store and profit to get some opinion/facts on any of the internets.

My opinion comes from working in manufacturing and knowing what it costs to make things, run things, maintain things, and what you can expect on margins of various products.

But we don't have any real evidence about the particular topic no.

Your memory is short, grasshopper :) I gave it in another thread when the same discussion was being had.

I'm sure someone here has the basic numbers, but it's too close to bedtime and I can't be bothered to look for the links again..

But something like xxx million PS3s, etc etc

In the other thread I exaggerated for effect saying something like "50 times" the "players". When it was worked out, it came in closer to about 16 times the "players".

I use "players" in inverted commas because it seems clear to all now that the average PS3 owner did not buy it for Bluray movies, since the overall average BD player attach rate (inclusive of the PS3) is logically anywhere from 1/7th to 1/15th that of HD DVD players, when you take the differential between Player sales and movies sales into account.

Hello!?!

1.1-1.2 million PS3s sold in America. If you count possibly 100k-200k Stand alone players sold that brings us to 1.4 million maybe.

HD-DVD claimed 175k HD-DVD Players sold last year. With the 360 add on sales for this year and stand alone sales you might get to 300k-375k.

Regardless, it's nothing close to 15 to 1. It might be 15 to 1 worldwide, but the only sales we are comparing on disc sales here in America.

If you actually look at the data we have available. HD-DVD sales of discs are around 900k, that's only a 3:1 attach rate.

Blu-ray has sold 1.15 million discs, bringing it close to a 1:1 attachment rate.

You are so ridiculous it's hilarious, these numbers are easily verified by checking NPD sales for PS3s and the data we have from Toshiba themselves at the end of last year, and HD-DVD add on sales which are available every month from NPD.

I think someone is FOS.

Is it 50% less? The cheapest blu-ray player is 500 dollars retailer and the cheapest HD-DVD player is 400 dollar retail (yes I know you can find them for slightly less, but most retail at 400).

We are not talking current.

And console <> CE player. Yes, again, console <> CE player.

The same way

PC gaming <> console gaming.

My opinion comes from working in manufacturing and knowing what it costs to make things, run things, maintain things, and what you can expect on margins of various products.

You are in the wrong industry if we are talking about software services.

But we don't have any real evidence about the particular topic no.

You mean you don't - don't assume I don't ;)

I don't mean to belittle this programming effort, as it is a substantial advantage, but WinCE's track record here is not exactly stellar, in spite of the depth of their talent pool there.

Do you have an equivalent in BD ? Or more importantly the willingness to help Chinese players put out inexpensive players.

Guys timeout.

We are going way off of the topic and the thread will get closed if anyone indulges in personal attacks.

Reopen. More of the personal attacks and it will be for good,

moving closer to the topic

DVD empire has been a leading indicator to the Nielson/Videoscan stats after they do the weekly update, but lately they have lagged the Amazon tracking.

Their new week of Apr 3 data is up and it shows (at least for now) a sharp reebound for HD DVD up to 47.22 % and has Blu-ray at 52.78 % for the last week posted.

Revisions have happened in the past, so a big grain of salt is needed, but that's the best showing there for HD DVD all year included weeks where the data was later revised downward.



http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365560421881

I see no reason why sales (very small amounts at that) ratio has anything to do with who can take over DVD. One format can clearly with this hidef "battle" only to lose the war to DVD.

What really needs to happen to take on DVD is (not just my idea, but some MR I've read) :

- Players in the $200 range
- Movie prices no more than SD (may be just a couple of bucks more)

The format that achieves these first, can take on DVD and try to win.

All the PS3s in the world will not help you get there. I can clearly see how BD can win the pygmies war but be beaten by DVD & HD DVD in the long run. This is like chosing your primary candidate - do you want someone with partisan appeal or general appeal ;) Could not agree with this post more.

This seems to be a basic difference in strategy between the two camps.

Blu-ray companies seem to be content to keep hardware prices higher and to use a longer period for player prices to drop so that their CE companies can keep that margin up. The PS3 trojan horse can drive software sales while the hardware vendors can move at a restrained pace toward consumer price points. Win the HD DVD Blu-ray fight and eventually evolve to take on DVD after they win the format war.

HD DVD backers seem to be ignoring Blu-ray CE companies and are trying to bypass the format war stage and more quickly to a consumer adoption pricing model. Their faster pace of price drops means their strategy is to get to that $199 price point sooner.

As I said before:


First format to $199 wins* (* 70% market share)

dvdempire's current-week sales ratio is useless.

moving closer to the topic

DVD empire has been a leading indicator to the Nielson/Videoscan stats after they do the weekly update, but lately they have lagged the Amazon tracking.

Their new week of Apr 3 data is up and it shows (at least for now) a sharp reebound for HD DVD up to 47.22 % and has Blu-ray at 52.78 % for the last week posted.

Revisions have happened in the past, so a big grain of salt is needed, but that's the best showing there for HD DVD all year included weeks where the data was later revised downward.


http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365560421881

it happend several times during week with even HD DVD in lead, but after all data was published at the end od the week it was BR in lead..

data and % ratios on dvdempride are missleading before final data, and final data are up when there are new data of new week....

Marek

dvdempire's current-week sales ratio is useless. Well it would be pretty bad if after this weeks Amazon uptick for HD DVD that those numbers did not show a rise. All of the revisions there to date have been downward to HD DVD.

I agree that the data is not valid until they post the following weeks numbers.

I trust the Nielson/Videoscan numbers as the best consistent data set we have for trend setting.

I firmly believe as time goes on and volumes increase they will be even more valuable.

Well, I still don't think anyone is going to buy a 200 dollar player they can't see 50% of the most recent movies they saw in the last few years on.

To clarify, 49% of 2006 sales were from BD exclusive studios. About 17% was from HD-DVD exclusive studios. So neither BD or HD-DVD has 100%. You could say that if 2007 repeats 2006, 51% HD-DVD and 83% BD. So the question really is, would a consumer pay $199 for access to 51% of the content, or $399 to access 83%. Would they pay an extra $200 to gain 32%. Or, you pay $3.92 per percent for the first 51%, and then you have to pay Sony/Fox/BV/MGM/Lionsgate
$6.25 per percent for their 32%.

I don't think it is so black and white. Consumers believe they have power, and if they want to go the cheapest route, I believe they think (probably correctly so), that studios will follow them down that route. It isn't like either format has released a ton of material yet. Out of 70,000+ potential titles, we have what, 200-300 unique titles? I don't think the volume of exclusive content is high enough yet for either format to sway a purchasing decision based on exclusives. Plus, do you really think J6P knows which studios release what films? Do you really think he knows that Back to the Future is released by Universal, or that Star Wars is released by Fox? He only knows what he sees in front of him, which is limited at this time, so he likely won't know what franchises or films he might miss out on, one format vs. the other.

and yet $200 players aren't going to build themselves. they'll have to be earned via savings in the manufacturing process, many of which will be applicable to both formats. the real monster in this department is the ps3 which is the only genuinely mass produced hd device currently on the market. if sony are unable to extract great savings on their drive through this route there's little chance toshiba will be able to with their far lower volume players.

We know it exists. Why did retailers stop stocking Betamax? Why did retailers stop stocking VHS? Why did retailers quit stocking Minidisc? Why did retailers quit stocking Cassettes?

I'm going based off what was said by marketing folks. I assumed they knew a bit more about retailers and their market, granted, it was Fox marketing folks and they might be biased, but they did say 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 prolonged sales were tipping points.

I don't know where you get your 3:1 and 4:1 numbers from, your marketing folks must not know much. DVD outsold VHS by more than 3:1 and 4:1 FOR FIVE YEARS! Studios and retailers did not stop support at 3:1 or 4:1.

Like I said before, retailers and studios decision to stop major support of VHS (studios do actually still release some material to VHS) occurred when the ratio was between 10:1 and 20:1 (Shrek 2 was ~20:1, LOTR: Return of the King ~12.5:1, Spiderman 2 ~10:1, etc.).

If they follow the same guidelines here (they may not, as volumes and history are different), neither format will go away for at least a couple of years. I think everyone needs to get out of the mindset that one format will be gone by the start of next year, and realize that both formats have at least three years of life in them, and that one or both may stick around much longer than that...

dvdempire's current-week sales ratio is useless.
not that i agree or disagree but pls explain why :confused:

generic blank statements like this don't help us (in the figuring out BD / HD DVD ales trends)

not that i agree or disagree but pls explain why :confused:

generic blank statements like this don't help us (in the figuring out BD / HD DVD ales trends)
I think what Grubert was referring to is that the numbers for the unfinalized current week of data at DVDEmpire have seen enormous swings on the last day of reporting, and shouldn't be used until they become "locked in" with the start of a new week.

For instance, the week of March 6th actually showed HD DVD leading for the majority of the week, but the numbers completely inverted when the final numbers were posted on March 13th.

I think what Grubert was referring to is that the numbers for the unfinalized current week of data at DVDEmpire have seen enormous swings on the last day of reporting, and shouldn't be used until they become "locked in" with the start of a new week.

For instance, the week of March 6th actually showed HD DVD leading for the majority of the week, but the numbers completed inverted when the final numbers were posted on March 13th.

Exactly. It has been reported that on dvdempire preorders, which comprise the majority of overall sales, are processed and logged at the end of the week. So most of the volume is done in the last couple days.

BTW the week of April 9-15 is going to be interesting. The exact same three catalog titles both for Blu-ray and HD DVD, and no new releases.

Icemage, Grubert, ty for the explaination :)

BTW the week of April 9-15 is going to be interesting. The exact same three catalog titles both for Blu-ray and HD DVD, and no new releases.I believe "Dragon's Lair" is coming out on Blu-ray on the 9th or 10th as well, although I can't find it at any reputable dealer except J&R.

Well it would be pretty bad if after this weeks Amazon uptick for HD DVD that those numbers did not show a rise. All of the revisions there to date have been downward to HD DVD.

I agree that the data is not valid until they post the following weeks numbers.

I trust the Nielson/Videoscan numbers as the best consistent data set we have for trend setting.

I firmly believe as time goes on and volumes increase they will be even more valuable.
Isn't this the strongest release period for HD DVD in months?

What would be bad is if HD DVD didn't lead the next few weeks by a margin of, oh, say, 2:1. ;)

After the thread lockdown tonight, Icemage had asked me to open a new thread, and I thought it would be a good idea to open it in such a way that the initial posts were for our two math/Excel wizards, so that they can edit them to include their latest projections.

Does everyone agree?

I believe "Dragon's Lair" is coming out on Blu-ray on the 9th or 10th as well, although I can't find it at any reputable dealer except J&R.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B000IMUYRE

After the thread lockdown tonight, Icemage had asked me to open a new thread, and I thought it would be a good idea to open it in such a way that the initial posts were for our two math/Excel wizards, so that they can edit them to include their latest projections.

Does everyone agree?

But now that this thread is reopened, do we want two threads on the same subject?

But now that this thread is reopened, do we want two threads on the same subject?

Maybe one for information and projections exclusively, and one for discussion (like the news/discussion stickies)?

Just a thought...

After the thread lockdown tonight, Icemage had asked me to open a new thread, and I thought it would be a good idea to open it in such a way that the initial posts were for our two math/Excel wizards, so that they can edit them to include their latest projections.

Does everyone agree?
I'm open to whatever.

Still, I know this thread is bloated with crap, but I would hate for it to get lost. It's interesting to see the chain of events and the process.

'Course it's probably akin to a lot of the crap in the attic. The likelihood of actually going through it again...

If there is a way to preserve some of the major theories and such, in this new thread, that would be quite a bonus.

Now if you can keep the new thread clean, that would really be something.

Maybe one for information and projections exclusively, and one for discussion (like the news/discussion stickies)?

Just a thought...
That could be nice... if you can actually make it work. It does seem to work in the news threads where it's made clear in the title that posting is just for news.

I still want some independent verification of N/V numbers. I work in a business where trust begins and ends in a written contract, and we haven't seen anything in writing, except some tippy scales (have we?). Doesn't anyone have a friend in Netflix or Blockbuster who can give us relative volumes there?

Maybe one for information and projections exclusively, and one for discussion (like the news/discussion stickies)?

Just a thought...

It would be necessary to have the bare thread stickied, of course. That could be helpful. It would make it a lot easier to find the basic data.

I still think rdjam should actually address his claim that "Bluray has 15 time the "players" in the market (counting the illustrious PS3, of course)" where he says that he is just talking about the US market. The threat of a thread being closed shouldn't be an excuse to just leave bogus information out there unchallenged for people to be misled IMO. I don't know if some trick is being played where PS3s are counted, but XBOX360s with add-ons aren't, whether somebody is just confused, or something else, but whatever it is, the bogus claim should stop (or be backed up).

rdjam,

Please actually back up your statement about 15x which you have made multiple times, or retract it (and stop claiming it).

--Darin

Maybe one for information and projections exclusively, and one for discussion (like the news/discussion stickies)?

Just a thought...

Please! Or a thread tool which filters out posts from certain tiresome individuals ;)

R.

Question from the ignorant...

Does the latest info from DVDEmpire showing a near 1:1 race capture all of the free movies being given away with new HD-DVD hardware purchases??? I haven't looked into the details, but I think I've heard as many as 5 free movies come from the manufacturer, and I believe CC is offering an additional 4 freebies. I would think including 5+ free movies would certainly skew the numbers if they are included... What about pre-orders for stuff like the Matrix or PoTC?

Please! Or a thread tool which filters out posts from certain tiresome individuals ;)

R.
It's called the 'ignore' function in your CP. ;)

It's called the 'ignore' function in your CP. ;)

It's easy for you to do. Others have to watch over the signal-to-BS. ;)

Question from the ignorant...

Does the latest info from DVDEmpire showing a near 1:1 race capture all of the free movies being given away with new HD-DVD hardware purchases. I haven't looked into the details, but I think I've heard as many as 5 free movies come from the manufacture, and I believe CC is offering an additional 4. I would think including 5+ free movies would certainly scew the numbers if they are included... What about pre-orders for stuff like the Matrix or PoTC?DVDEmpire is just tracking their own sales. From the information I've seen, they only count shipments (not preorders or orders for things not in stock). Since they don't sell the HD-A2, they shouldn't be giving away free movies with it themselves. The 52.78/47.22 put up yesterday looks like it was just for yesterday's balance (since it is for the week of April 3rd and that is the week starting that day from what we've seen before). Also, I now wonder if the figures given for the month are for certain weeks (like starting April 3rd for April) and not actually from the 1st day of the month to the last day of the month. Otherwise, the week of April 3rd exactly matching April seems like quite a coincidence. Especially when last week was so lopsided. The 73.11/26.89 seems too lopsided to me given the releases last week and I wonder if some of the HD DVDs were just out of stock to give Blu-ray such a big advantage for that week. That could cause the next week to swing more toward HD DVD.

--Darin

Thank you for the clarification Darin. You also bring up a good point about the dates and possible backorders...

Maybe one for information and projections exclusively, and one for discussion (like the news/discussion stickies)?

Just a thought... I really like that idea. I would like to have the other thread a summary of calculations and links to new sales data trackings and this thread for a continuous discussion of their significance.

I still think rdjam should actually address his claim that "Bluray has 15 time the "players" in the market (counting the illustrious PS3, of course)" where he says that he is just talking about the US market. The threat of a thread being closed shouldn't be an excuse to just leave bogus information out there unchallenged for people to be misled IMO. I don't know if some trick is being played where PS3s are counted, but XBOX360s with add-ons aren't, whether somebody is just confused, or something else, but whatever it is, the bogus claim should stop (or be backed up).

rdjam,

Please actually back up your statement about 15x which you have made multiple times, or retract it (and stop claiming it).

--Darin I don't understand that statement either.

But I think it a moot point. If you count every PS3 as Blu-ray player (as BDA are akin to do) then Blu-ray has obviously more Blu-ray drives in the field than HD DVD does.

But since most PS3 owners didn't buy their PS3s for that reason, that potential will also obviously go somewhat untapped.

I think rdjam was just trying to point out in his own way the problem with millions of potential players generating thousands of sales. More than HD DVD, to be sure during the last couple months, but small in comparison with the numbers of PS3s in the field.

BTW, I do not think the case was made or explanation was done very well for that ratio.

I really like that idea. I would like to have the other thread a summary of calculations and links to new sales data trackings and this thread for a continuous discussion of their significance.

Yep. Lets us do that. We can post all sale number related "news" / figures in that thread and post discussion and analysis here.

Yep. Lets us do that. We can post all sale number related "news" / figures in that thread and post discussion and analysis here. I would not even limit it to Nielson/Videoscan but would open it up to any link with any significant data or change in rankings from any creditable source, such as even a link to a news article or even a ratings spike because of a new title release.

But all discussion should be here, that will keep it clean.

http://endrop.com/album/photos/edh3amjmm121timrwmmt.jpg (http://endrop.com/viewer.php?file=edh3amjmm121timrwmmt.jpg)

What is your estimate for April 1st based on the above data ?

vgcharts.org has a cool predictions league. That is ofcourse difficult to implement here. Still I'd like to hear what everyone's prediction is - we can compare when the new numbers come out.

My prediction :

BD - 30K
HD DVD - 20K

This is for Nielsen (proj) numbers.

What would be bad is if HD DVD didn't lead the next few weeks by a margin of, oh, say, 2:1.

This is a totally non-sensical statement. You could say that if Blu-ray chose to release nothing for the next couple of months, the same as HD DVD did in Jan/Feb/Mar. But that is not the case. Right now, the HD DVD release schedule has made them competitive with Blu-ray, for the first time this year. Therefore, the results over the next few weeks should show that. I don't expect any 2:1 advantages. Blu-ray is more likely to lead than HD DVD, but not by anywhere near the margin they've become used to.

BD - 30K
HD DVD - 20K

This is for Nielsen (proj) numbers.
For reference, the new discs for the next week of data through April 1 (released 3/27/07) are:

HD DVD:
Children of Men (exclusive)
Happy Feet (neutral)
National Geographic: Relentless Enemies (neutral)
March of the Penguins (neutral)

Blu-ray:
The Pursuit of Happyness (exclusive)
Incubus: Live at Red Rocks (exclusive)
Happy Feet (neutral)
National Geographic: Relentless Enemies (neutral)
March of the Penguins (neutral)

For what it's worth, I really think speculation needs to stay off of this thread and be moved to a new topic. There's already a ton of clutter here, and having everyone throw in $.02 on predictions will drop the already low signal-to-noise here down to effectively zero.

vgcharts.org has a cool predictions league. That is ofcourse difficult to implement here. Still I'd like to hear what everyone's prediction is - we can compare when the new numbers come out.There is a poll with predictions of ratio here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=827227

I personally think it will show how out of touch some are with the causes and effects here.

--Darin

This is a totally non-sensical statement. You could say that if Blu-ray chose to release nothing for the next couple of months, the same as HD DVD did in Jan/Feb/Mar. But that is not the case. Right now, the HD DVD release schedule has made them competitive with Blu-ray, for the first time this year. Therefore, the results over the next few weeks should show that. I don't expect any 2:1 advantages. Blu-ray is more likely to lead than HD DVD, but not by anywhere near the margin they've become used to.
You got me Jeff. Hence the wink. maybe you missed that since you neglected to place that in your quote.

That said, I would not be shocked if HD DVD did, at least take the lead one week. Yes, Blu-ray has had some solid releases as well, but I was thinking maybe after all the expenditures of CR and others that BD owners may take a break for a bit giving HD DVD the chance to share the spotlight.

Sorry if I upset you.

For what it's worth, I really think speculation needs to stay off of this thread and be moved to a new topic. There's already a ton of clutter here, and having everyone throw in $.02 on predictions will drop the already low signal-to-noise here down to effectively zero.

Agreed. We can start a new thread ...

There is a poll with predictions of ratio here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=827227

I personally think it will show how out of touch some are with the causes and effects here.

Hadn't seen that. But it is in BD section.

You got me Jeff. Hence the wink. maybe you missed that since you neglected to place that in your quote.

My fault. Didn't catch the wink. Sorry about that.

Real sales numbers could be much higher than the Nielson/Videoscan survey numbers. At the low volume of the survey capture, there can be a lot of variation as you scale those numbers up to the entire market.

Kosty, who cares. The only numbers that count are Nielsen's. The top 5 from Neilsen obviously is built on the same numbers as the ratios. It's not like they will say

"OK we got 500 copies of X and 300 copies of Y but we will guess many more Y sold atr Walmart so we will rank Y higher then X"

I know we discussed that amazon sales don't necessarily correlate to the nielsen numbers, but I have a theory that their stock number is a trailing indicator of what their previous week sales numbers are. Since videoscan numbers show up later, I wonder if amazon stock can be used as a gauge for the ratio (at least for amazon sales).

It wouldn't do too much good, but if we see that the ratio of BD/HD stock goes down, maybe that's an indication of a closer race (in amazon). As well, if the relative stock levels compared to previous weeks go down or up, that might be an indication of past declining or rising sales.

I wonder if averaging the daily numbers over 7 days and seeing how closely those curves matches historical sales numbers of BD & HD can tell us anything.

Amazon stock amounts aren't a good indicator for microtrends, though the fact that Amazon is choosing to stock 4 times as much inventory for Blu-ray than HD DVD seems very curious.

Nonetheless it's still off-topic - this thread is supposed to be talking about what we can glean (if anything) from Nielsen/VideoScan.

I wonder if averaging the daily numbers over 7 days and seeing how closely those curves matches historical sales numbers of BD & HD can tell us anything.

The problem is we haven't figured out how and why the stock levels change. We should actually be able to get the sales figures if it behaves the way it should - simplistically speaking. But it doesn't.

I think that amazon stock level as a whole is something like 6 weeks based on january nielsen, but it doesn't correlate with nielsen either, since it now looks more like it is 2 weeks behind. My guess is that it is a piece of software determining stocking levels at amazon.

The problem with tracking automated inventory ordering systems is that the stock level tend to react slower going up and going down, probably useful as well, but the 4x multiple in their current stock ratio does tend to mirror the march numbers from 3 weeks ago doesn't it? That can't be a coincidence, even though they seem to sellthrough different top titles from the B&Ms.

ugghh, I leave for a while and you people are back on bashing nielsen/videoscan.
-----

Do you think monkeys work there? If there in the buisness of numbers. I'm pretty sure they have some very qualified people working there. If there reports were so in-accurate as you make them appear to be, they would not be around any more. Simple as that, the market would have driven them out.

And while hi-def disks are a small volume product. You are overusing the term the niche term.

A small volume product would sell a handful of items a week, and ussually in small mom&pop stores. where a store running a promo one week might account for 90% of the sales of the item.

Blu-ray & hd-dvd are being sold in most/every major electronic's retail location, ie circuit city, best buys, targets, etc depending on your area.

A lack of stock of any one item would cause the automatic re-ordering system in these compaines to stock extra copies in that location.

for example my target has a lame selection of both formats. when casino-royale came out their stock was the same as other disks, but the sell out occured on day one, so the system ordered what appears to be 3x as many copies, and those sold at some new rate, which will determine stock next week.

And while stores will be infulenced by the rates they get paid for selling item A, if item b sells faster & in greater qty, then the volume will make up for the difference.

Stores dropping volumes of disks would do so because they are not selling.


to conclude, unless you have real PROOF, that the numbers are biased, all you have is theories as to why they could be. None of which matters, because you can make up any case where numbers could mean something else. Just stating that videoscan could be off, does not make it so.

It appears that hd-dvd fans are just sticking there heads in the sand, afraid of the writing on the walls.

It appears that hd-dvd fans are just sticking there heads in the sand, afraid of the writing on the walls.

If you had bought HD-DVD, you'd likely be doing the same thing. Facing the fact that you likely chose wrong and that it cost you $1000-$2500 (player and discs) isn't easy to deal with...despite the fact that those discs can still be played regardless of whether the format dies.

If you had bought HD-DVD, you'd likely be doing the same thing. Facing the fact that you likely chose wrong and that it cost you $1000-$2500 (player and discs) isn't easy to deal with...despite the fact that those discs can still be played regardless of whether the format dies.

...as long as your player works.

Back to the topic...

If you had bought HD-DVD, you'd likely be doing the same thing. Facing the fact that you likely chose wrong and that it cost you $1000-$2500 (player and discs) isn't easy to deal with...despite the fact that those discs can still be played regardless of whether the format dies.

i bougth the drive for my 360. but i'm mainly a gamer, I have 3 hd-dvd, and 4 blu-rays for my ps3.

I was dumb and missed the 50% of sale at amazon. Otherwise, its hard to buy a 30 dollar movie for ethier format, unless its great.

Please, please, please take the off-topic format battle discussion off of this thread.

Thank you.

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/nielsentrackingreporttellswhichhdsells/4401

This should be on topic enough. Now digest...

Best selling BD disc YTD 38,993

Best selling HD disc YTD more than 14,441 but less than 28,306

According to Nielsen.

Also, discuss the potential effet of the CC sale on HD-DVD numbers. Looks like it will be a BD-type tactic. The four "free" movies actually ring up as a sale on the receipt. The player is $X dollars and the movies ring up the remainder to make it $399. So the "free" movies should count as sales with Nielsen. So if CC sold a huge number of players, disc volumes should be 4X the hardware sales.

Will this week be the week HD-DVD strikes back and tops BD? Will we see blogs and articles all over the web that say "HD-DVD outsells Blu-ray", or "HD-DVD winning the format war" like we did with BD?

this is from the article that wnorris posted.

Cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units. But those numbers and ones to follow come with a disclaimer. Totals do not include retailers that aren't using VideoScan, among them Wal-Mart. Still, there are some interesting things here.

so, how does this affect things and the chart.

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/nielsentrackingreporttellswhichhdsells/4401

This should be on topic enough. Now digest...

Best selling BD disc YTD 38,993

Best selling HD disc YTD more than 14,441 but less than 28,306

Very interesting. SI numbers as of 18-mar is given. I think we should stick to these numbers going forward and not worry about HMM projections. The 40% figure looks way off from what is reported here.

Cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units. But those numbers and ones to follow come with a disclaimer. Totals do not include retailers that aren't using VideoScan, among them Wal-Mart. Still, there are some interesting things here.

http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/6687/nielsenanalysisdl2.gif (http://imageshack.us)

PS : We don't get the exact SI numbers. Probably because of difference in first alert and final .. ?

What we have is 100:84.07 and what we get with 844K/708.6K is 100:83.96.

YTD ranking and some unit sales

1. The Departed 38,993
2. Casino Royale 28,306
3. The Departed
4. The Prestige
5. Crank
6. Saw 3 14,441
7. Superman Returns
8 Batman Begins
9. Black Hawk Down
10. Underworld Evolution
11. The Fifth Element
12. X-Men: The Last Stand
13. Talladega Nights 10,346
14. The Guardian
15. Open Season
16. Ice Age: The Meltdown
17. Babel
18. Flyboys
19. House of Flying Daggers
20. Mission Impossible Collection
21. Click
22. The Terminator
23. The Covenant
24. Gridiron Gang
25. Kingdom of Heaven

YTD ranking and some unit sales

1. The Departed 38,993
2. Casino Royale 28,306
3. The Departed
4. The Prestige
5. Crank
6. Saw 3 14,441
7. Superman Returns
8 Batman Begins
9. Black Hawk Down
10. Underworld Evolution
11. The Fifth Element
12. X-Men: The Last Stand
13. Talladega Nights 10,346
14. The Guardian
15. Open Season
16. Ice Age: The Meltdown
17. Babel
18. Flyboys
19. House of Flying Daggers
20. Mission Impossible Collection
21. Click
22. The Terminator
23. The Covenant
24. Gridiron Gang
25. Kingdom of Heaven

How are we supposed to read this list?

Is it saying that even Kingdom of heaven has outsold all other HD DVD releases (excluding The Departed and Batman Begins)? That seems unlikely...?

And... only 28k for Casino Royale? Surely it must have done better than that...

fronn,

And... only 28k for Casino Royale? Surely it must have done better than that...

Why? Because Sony said so?

Why? Because Sony said so?Nice attempt at messing with dates, but they didn't. The report's source is 3/18, the SPHE release was 3/27.

How are we supposed to read this list?

Is it saying that even Kingdom of heaven has outsold all other HD DVD releases (excluding The Departed and Batman Begins)? That seems unlikely...?

And... only 28k for Casino Royale? Surely it must have done better than that...


Pretty interesting numbers....Nielsen only looks at a subset of the unit sales, but it probably looks at a large proportion of sales.

From the stats, it looks like BD in general is outselling HD-DVD in a larger and more broad-based way than we thought..That is, I was thinking that the 4:1 ratio was solely because of Casino-Royale, but it looks like MOST Blu-ray titles are outselling the bulk of HD-DVD titles by a good clip (cumulatively of course).

jblackow,

Nice attempt at FUD, but they didn't. The report's source is 3/18, the SPHE release was 3/27.

What FUD? Fronn said that CR had to sell more than 28K and I asked why he thought so? And I asked if it was because Sony said they did . The date of the announcement is irrelevant.

Look, not every anti Sony statement is FUD, unless you believe that everything Sony says is true.

fronn,



Why? Because Sony said so?
No?

Maybe because it was one of the biggest films of last year (was praised all around and recieved very high marks) and had a larger market appeal than something like, say, The Departed (especially in the "PS3 demographic"). The ranking on Amazon has been consistantly very high since it's release (relative to the average of a movie on either format), for example.

I didn't figure it would be 100k (as that was shipped numbers), but I was thinking 50-70k wouldn't be unreasonable.

Are these figures 40% figures, or are they final whole market figures? Either way, I'm kind of surprised the BD version of The Departed (unless I'm reading the blue name wrong and it includes HD DVD version as well?) has outsold it -- I suppose it has been out a lot longer, but still a little surprised.

fronn,

These are the Nielsen numbers. Do they track everyone? No, the article states they dont track Walmart.

So, maybe CR did do better that 28K, but then you have to assume that it captures less than 50% of the market.

Amazon rankings dont mean much because the volumes are low - sell a few extra discs and the rankings can shift dramatically.

What the numbers show is how little HDM are selling in general.

Don't forget foreign sales. CR was waaaay up on Amazon.co.uk in the weeks prior to release. Probably not an inconsequential sales figure.

So, maybe CR did do better that 28K, but then you have to assume that it captures less than 50% of the market.

Why do you have to assume this? The numbers btw, look screwed if you make the assumption that the 28,000 for CR is for several weeks.....The Departed (Blu-ray), according to nielsen, did 20,000 or so its first week...are we saying CR did less than this? VERY unlikely based on the hype, the shipment values, and the amazon rankings, which did show a very large difference between the two blu-ray titles.

Btw, where does this article get those numbers? I don't see these nielsen numbers reported anywhere else (from Home media or some other outlet)

Don't forget foreign sales. CR was waaaay up on Amazon.co.uk in the weeks prior to release. Probably not an inconsequential sales figure.

Well, yeah, nielsen in this case is reporting only USA (or maybe NA) sales. Blu-ray would also be overshadowing HD-DVD elsewhere I would suspect though.

What the numbers show is how little HDM are selling in general.

IIRC, last week's top seller on dvd, Happy Feet, sold over 4 million copies in its first week.

In other words, a single blockbuster dvd release, in one week, had more than twice the combined sales of both hi-def formats for all releases since inception.

IIRC, last week's top seller on dvd, Happy Feet, sold over 4 million copies in its first week.

In other words, a single blockbuster dvd release, in one week, had more than twice the combined sales of both hi-def formats for all releases since inception.

remember again though that both formats, and blu-ray in particular, are LESS THAN A YEAR OLD, and both seem to be doing BETTER than DVD did in its first year.

That is, current reality does not approximate future results in this case.

asj,

The numbers btw, look screwed if you make the assumption that the 28,000 for CR is for several weeks

Well, the article certainly implies that is cumulative sales. The numbers only look screwed if you assume, as you and probably Darin seem to, that HDM are selling like gang busters etc. Now, before everyone goes Apes**** and thinks that I am saying that Nielsen captures everyone, I dont. But for the rosy scenarios a lot of people paint for the "success" of HDM/BD one has to assume that Nielsen captures a fraction of the market. If you do, then heck, at a certain level you can make up almost any numbers you want.

asj,

Btw, where does this article get those numbers? I don't see these nielsen numbers reported anywhere else (from Home media or some other outlet)

This is from the article, if you read it.

More of interest. Nielsen VideoScan tracking generated a list of the Top 25 titles sold during the year. Top seller? Jack is back. "The Departed" in Blu-ray. Number two is "Casino Royale" in Blu-ray. Number three, "The Departed" in HD-DVD. Here's the rest of the 25 Top Sellers:

also, from the article if you read it

Casino Royale" Blu-ray is the top seller in the Action/Adventure category, with a YTD of 28,306 units (a little off the 100,00 shipped mark that was reported earlier). "The Departed" Blu-ray is on top of the Drama category with 38, 993 units sold. "Talladega Nights" is tops for Comedy at 10,346 units sold. "Saw 3" Blu-ray is atop the Horror genre, with 14,441 units sold.


Asj,

The Departed (Blu-ray), according to nielsen, did 20,000 or so its first week...are we saying CR did less than this?

if you believe Nielsen, then the answer must be yes.

asj,

That is, current reality does not approximate future results in this case.

My, that is an odd statement coming from you in the sense that the current reality is that BD is outselling HD but you see no way that the situation can change. And yet, you say that current reality is not predictive of the future. Do we want our cake and eat it too? :)

asj,

VERY unlikely based on the hype, the shipment values, and the amazon rankings, which did show a very large difference between the two blu-ray titles.

here is the thing, and you nailed it on the head - people were spouting things based on "hype" etc. Amazon rankings dont mean much because of the low volumes, as IIRC you said about the Tosh A2 rankings. Just a few sales and the rankings can shift dramatically. Quite a few people have also commented on the imcomprehensibility of Amazon stock numbers. So, in the end, people spun a lot of fanciful stories based on hype, rumor and dubious data. So now some real numbers come out and reality isnt quite the same, and you seem to want to believe the hype and not the numbers. That is of course your decision.

asj,
My, that is an odd statement coming from you in the sense that the current reality is that BD is outselling HD but you see no way that the situation can change. And yet, you say that current reality is not predictive of the future. Do we want our cake and eat it too? :)

Not that I know of...again, unless you can show me some defining event or trend that HD-DVD is somehow starting to gain on Blu-ray, then i really don't see HD-DVD catching up at all. In fact, that list vividly shows how far behind HD-DVD already is, and there is no denying the fact that (1) the PS3 will continue to outsell all HD-DVD players b a wide margin, (2) Blu-ray still has significantly more exclusive studios than HD-DVD, the impact of which will continue to increase as time passes. Until either of those factors change, i cannot foresee HD-DVD catching up to Blu-ray.

On the other hand, we do have past trends that show DVD doing not as well as Blu-ray today, which points to the tentative conclusion that Blu-ray can still very much outdo DVD in the long run.

Pretty interesting numbers....Nielsen only looks at a subset of the unit sales, but it probably looks at a large proportion of sales.

From the stats, it looks like BD in general is outselling HD-DVD in a larger and more broad-based way than we thought..That is, I was thinking that the 4:1 ratio was solely because of Casino-Royale, but it looks like MOST Blu-ray titles are outselling the bulk of HD-DVD titles by a good clip (cumulatively of course).

I'm not sure how you are coming to this conclusion? If you look at total sales of disks the numbers, they are not that far apart.

?Cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units. But those numbers and ones to follow come with a disclaimer. Totals do not include retailers that aren't using VideoScan, among them Wal-Mart. Still, there are some interesting things here."

YTD ranking and some unit sales

1. The Departed 38,993
2. Casino Royale 28,306
.
.
.
.
25. Kingdom of Heaven

Grubert those numbers are from march 18th ? or wich date ?
if yes, that number for CR is not for FULL FIRST WEEK right ?

Marek

Well, the article certainly implies that is cumulative sales. Not in the case of CR, which is presumably what he was talking about. The report is through March 18, only a couple days after CR came out.

Not in the case of CR, which is presumably what he was talking about. The report is through March 18, only a couple days after CR came out.

The CR numbers it seems were released on 27th - but CR release was 13th.

03/13 Casino Royale S DL A PCM/DD 38.95

The confusion is that the article talks about HMM research figures too - and those were confirmed by Grubert as for 18th.

Maybe I got mixed up, but it looked like CR was being singled out for cumulative sales from the report, although the report specifically mentions it is from 3/18. The press release is from 3/27, but it didn't look like that was the data asj2006 or george king were referring to.

Maybe I got mixed up, but it looked like CR was being singled out for cumulative sales from the report, although the report specifically mentions it is from 3/18. The press release is from 3/27, but it didn't look like that was the data asj2006 or george king were referring to.

I think there are several numbers we have got from various sources and they don't all tally nicely.

There were also some numbers released for Departed (18K BD vs 13K HD, IIRC) and those atleast seem to be not contradicted here.

Not in the case of CR, which is presumably what he was talking about. The report is through March 18, only a couple days after CR came out.

NICE NICE catch...in fact, wasn't there a report that came out earlier that by the second day, CR (Blu-ray) had become the #2 selling Blu-ray title...

Is THIS is the basis of that report!??!!! :confused:

So, in fact, if these numbers are for only 2 days or so of CR (Blu-ray), then that would explain the numbers. Because there is no way CR (Blu-ray) is selling only as well as The Departed (Blu-ray)...NO WAY JOSE!

YTD ranking and some unit sales

1. The Departed 38,993
2. Casino Royale 28,306
3. The Departed
4. The Prestige
5. Crank
6. Saw 3 14,441
7. Superman Returns
8 Batman Begins
9. Black Hawk Down
10. Underworld Evolution
11. The Fifth Element
12. X-Men: The Last Stand
13. Talladega Nights 10,346
14. The Guardian
15. Open Season
16. Ice Age: The Meltdown
17. Babel
18. Flyboys
19. House of Flying Daggers
20. Mission Impossible Collection
21. Click
22. The Terminator
23. The Covenant
24. Gridiron Gang
25. Kingdom of Heaven

I also find it difficult to believe that the red MI3 and Superman Returns did not sell even 10K disks. What is the context of this list? Is it since inception or 2007 only?

I don''t understand how Warner's statements on titles selling well "on both formats" can be reconciled with this list. If we use a natural progression of numbers and the rate of decline on that list, #25 KoH, may not even sell 5000 disks, that would be a sad pill for me to take since I love this movie, but to think that no other HD DVD would sell at least 10,000 is difficult to understand. All studios must be bleeding massive red ink from all the highdef movies they are producing.

I don't know what is worse : that the sales numbers per title are all so low or that Babel and Click outsold KoH. I'm going to have reach for more of the good stuff to wash this down.

asj,

Not that I know of...again, unless you can show me some defining event or trend that HD-DVD is somehow starting to gain on Blu-ray, then i really don't see HD-DVD catching up at all

But here is the thing, the numbers from the article show how little HDM are selling. That is in spite of approximately 1.5 million BD capable players on the market.

So to use your logic, show me some defining trend or event that will show BD gaining in popularity. In other words, what is going to change that will accelerate the adoption of HDM. Thus, given your view, HDM is doomed to failure.

Neo,

I don''t understand how Warner's statements on titles selling well "on both formats" can be reconciled with this list.

Warner never said the titles were selling well, they said they were selling roughly equally for those joint titles.

asj,



But here is the thing, the numbers from the article show how little HDM are selling. That is in spite of approximately 1.5 million BD capable players on the market.

So to use your logic, show me some defining trend or event that will show BD gaining in popularity. In other words, what is going to change that will accelerate the adoption of HDM. Thus, given your view, HDM is doomed to failure.

Neo,



Warner never said the titles were selling well, they said they were selling roughly equally for those joint titles.

Nope, we've had several Warner statements that they are 'happy' with the highdef sales. If they are happy with selling only a few thousand disks of a few titles, possibly only hundreds on many of them, then they must be the happiest group of people in the world.

I don't see Superman Returns or Babel or any other neutral titles showing up "roughly equal" on that list. Do you?

You also ducked the question on how hd dvd is catching up. If after all that, there are only 2 red disks on the top 25 selling titles with 23 blue disks, what does that really say? That blu is not healthy because the numbers are so low? If Blu is unhealthy, then what adjective describes Red best? How about comatose?

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 4/1/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Happy Feet (WB, $39.99)
2 Children of Men (UNI, $39.98)
3 The Departed (WB, $39.99)
4 The Mummy Returns (UNI, $29.98)
5 Fear And Loathing in Las Vegas (UNI, $29.98)
6 The Phantom Of The Opera (WB, $28.99)
7 Superman Returns (WB, $39.99)
8 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
9 The Last Samurai (WB, $28.99)
10 Casino (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 4/1/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Happy feet (WB, $34.99)
2 Casino Royale (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
3 The Pursuit Of Happiness (SONY, $38.96)
4 Eragon (FOX, $39.98)
5 Rocky Balboa (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
6 The Departed (WB, $34.99)
7 The Fifth Element (SONY, $28.95)
8 Black Hawk Down (SONY, $28.95)
9 Underworld: Evolution (SONY, $38.95)
10 The Prestige (BV, $34.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

So, in fact, if these numbers are for only 2 days or so of CR (Blu-ray), then that would explain the numbers. Because there is no way CR (Blu-ray) is selling only as well as The Departed (Blu-ray)...NO WAY JOSE!

You missed my post. CR released on 13th. So, this would be the first 5 days of sales - which we know is a substantial amount of total sales for the title.

Neo,

Nope, we've had several Warner statements that they are 'happy' with the highdef sales.


You are changing things now. First you said that Warner claimed they were selling "well". I said that Warner never said that. The term 'well" within this context implies selling lots of copies.

So instead of admitting that Warner never said discs were selling well, you state they are happy with sales. "Happy with" and "selling well", in the context of the current situation are two different things.

They could easily be happy with sales. If sales of the discs are meeting or exceeding their expectations, then I would imagine they would be happy with sales, even if they werent selling 100K copies of each disc. It is all about their expectations, not yours or mine or anyone elses.


You also ducked the question on how hd dvd is catching up.

I didnt duck it, as I have repeatedly said, in lots of other posts, that it is too early to tell because sales volumes are so low. If the Nielsen numbers are accurate, the low part of my statement has been verified. Given the low numbers, studios arent going to make any decisions and a few big releases (e.g., Matrix, Harry Potter) could change the sales differential.

So, we shall see what happens with sales given some recent HD DVD releases, and the fact that quite a few titles are scheduled for release, including the Matrix.

Warner never said the titles were selling well, they said they were selling roughly equally for those joint titles.

And they were dishonest - part of the THD propoganda campaign?

Departed (Blu-ray): 38, 993

Casino Royale (BD): 28,306

Departed (HD DVD): ?????? - but less than 28,306

Let's be generous and say that Departed sold 28,000 on HD DVD. That makes the ratio on that title 58:42 - about equal? :rolleyes:

You missed my post. CR released on 13th. So, this would be the first 5 days of sales - which we know is a substantial amount of total sales for the title.

yes, but even with second weekend CR droping about 50% , CR can be over 40.000 units...

Marek

when we can get new data from Nielsen for last week ?

Marek

An A.C. Nielsen VideoScan Tracking Report for the week ending March 18, released to the public by Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, reveals some interesting data about HD sales.

Cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units. But those numbers and ones to follow come with a disclaimer. Totals do not include retailers that aren't using VideoScan, among them Wal-Mart. Still, there are some interesting things here.

First, lets talk title count. Universal leads the HD-DVD pack with 62 titles, closely followed by Warner Brothers at 61 titles, with Paramount contributing 16, Genius 7, and HBO 1. On the Blu-ray side, Sony is on top with 40 titles, closely followed by Warner Brothers, who've released 38 Blu-ray titles. Fox has 26 titles, Disney/Buena Vista 25, LionsGate 18, Paramount 16, and MGM 11. Totals? HD-DVD now offers 158 titles, Blu-ray 189.

More of interest. Nielsen VideoScan tracking generated a list of the Top 25 titles sold during the year. Top seller? Jack is back. "The Departed" in Blu-ray. Number two is "Casino Royale" in Blu-ray. Number three, "The Departed" in HD-DVD. Here's the rest of the 25 Top Sellers:

4) "The Prestige" Blu-ray
5) "Crank" Blu-ray
6) "Saw 3" Blu-ray
7) "Superman Returns" Blu-ray
8) "Batman Begins" HD-DVD
9) "Black Hawk Down" Blu-ray
10) "Underworld Evolution" Blu-ray
11) "The Fifth Element" Blu-ray
12) "X-Men: The Last Stand" Blu-ray
13) "Talladega Nights" Blu-ray
14) "The Guardian" Blu-ray
15) "Open Season" Blu-ray
16) "Ice Age: The Meltdown" Blu-ray
17) "Babel" Blu-ray
18) "Flyboys" Blu-ray
19) "House of Flying Daggers" Blu-ray
20) "Mission Impossible" 3-pack Blu-ray
21) "Click" Blu-ray"
22) "The Terminator" Blu-ray
23) "The Covenant" Blu-ray
24) Gridiron Gang" Blu-ray
25) "Kingdom of Heaven" Director's Cut Blu-ray

"Casino Royale" Blu-ray is the top seller in the Action/Adventure category, with a YTD of 28,306 units (a little off the 100,00 shipped mark that was reported earlier). "The Departed" Blu-ray is on top of the Drama category with 38, 993 units sold. "Talladega Nights" is tops for Comedy at 10,346 units sold. "Saw 3" Blu-ray is atop the Horror genre, with 14,441 units sold.

Already linked and being discussed, AV Doogie.

YTD ranking and some unit sales

1. The Departed 38,993
2. Casino Royale 28,306
3. The Departed
4. The Prestige
5. Crank
6. Saw 3 14,441
7. Superman Returns
8 Batman Begins
9. Black Hawk Down
10. Underworld Evolution
11. The Fifth Element
12. X-Men: The Last Stand
13. Talladega Nights 10,346
14. The Guardian
15. Open Season
16. Ice Age: The Meltdown
17. Babel
18. Flyboys
19. House of Flying Daggers
20. Mission Impossible Collection
21. Click
22. The Terminator
23. The Covenant
24. Gridiron Gang
25. Kingdom of Heaven

It does look a little out of what "common sense" would dictate, what with only 2 in top 25 for HD DVD.

In anycase, the numbers look aneamic. As I've been saying avg release isn't adding much to the bottomline ...

Sorry, Thought you took parts of the information from other sources.

Let's be generous and say that Departed sold 28,000 on HD DVD. That makes the ratio on that title 58:42 - about equal? :rolleyes:

Warner exec interview was before departed, IIRC.

An A.C. Nielsen VideoScan Tracking Report for the week ending March 18, released to the public by Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, reveals some interesting data about HD sales.

Ofcourse critics can point out and say are they really giving us the whole picture ?

Ofcourse critics can point out and say are they really giving us the whole picture ?

Would said critics claim that Sony has altered or omitted any relevent information?

fozziwig,

And they were dishonest - part of the THD propoganda campaign?

Departed (Blu-ray): 38, 993

Casino Royale (BD): 28,306

Departed (HD DVD): ?????? - but less than 28,306

Let's be generous and say that Departed sold 28,000 on HD DVD. That makes the ratio on that title 58:42 - about equal

What is so hard to understand about the concept of "about equal for all the titles". So you found one title where that wasnt the case. The Warner exec did not say that each and every title sold exactly the same amount. He said that for the titles where there were dual releases overall sales were about equal. You can be paranoid all you want and assume deep and dark and nefarious things, but your example is not inconsistent with his statement.

Who determines which dual releases titles are colored blue or red? That list of titles seems odd.

No one doubts that BR is selling more but the total disk sales numbers don't seem to jive with 23 of 25 being BR releases.

Who determines which dual releases titles are colored blue or red? That list of titles seems odd.

Consumers...

~Alan

Who determines which dual releases titles are colored blue or red? That list of titles seems odd.

No one doubts that BR is selling more but the total disk sales numbers don't seem to jive with 23 of 25 being BR releases.

Read the original source article...those colors are derived from titles that have either "Blu-ray" or "HD-DVD" right next to them.

trgraphics,

No one doubts that BR is selling more but the total disk sales numbers don't seem to jive with 23 of 25 being BR releases.

Who knows, and that is the thing about rankings. With the low overall sales in terms of absolute numbers and for the individual titles, it is quite possible that the absolute differences between many of those titles is only a couple of hundred discs.

One has no idea whatsoever what the absolute differences are between the different titles.

yes, but even with second weekend CR droping about 50% , CR can be over 40.000 units...

Right... "Casino Royale," according to Sony shipped over 100,00 units... and has remained the 1st and 2nd best selling Blu-Ray title since... and probably will until at least later this month or sometime next month.

~Alan

Would said critics claim that Sony has altered or omitted any relevent information?

The said critics could say anything - afterall many don't even think Nielsen numbers are right.

Ofcourse we know that corporations will quote stuff makes them look good.

I am surprised SM Returns and Serenity on HD DVD isn't on the list.

I am surprised SM Returns and Serenity on HD DVD isn't on the list.
It is a YTD list so Serenity wouldn't make it, and the BD of SR was cheaper so that could explain the much higher BD sales (without getting into popularity of each format etc...).

trgraphics,



Who knows, and that is the thing about rankings. With the low overall sales in terms of absolute numbers and for the individual titles, it is quite possible that the absolute differences between many of those titles is only a couple of hundred discs.

One has no idea whatsoever what the absolute differences are between the different titles.

Or possibly even closer than a few hundred. I really don't pay attention to the weekly reports, they are meaningless in my mind at this stage of the game. Total sales is what I tend to watch, and that doesn't tell me that BR is outselling HD DVD by 4:1 or more, as I have seen a few claim here. Sure BR is doing better now but no one knows if it will stay that way with the slowing player sales or that HD DVD will catch up with cheaper players.

There is a lot more to this than just the top ten sales every week. A lot of folks, including myself, buy a lot of cataog titles that may not hit the top ten or twenty in a given week but still sell a lot over 6 to 8 months.

I nolonger care about the format war but outragous claims still urk me when I see them from either side. And claiming to have outsold one side by 4:1 is one of those that does when the total sales says otherwise. Thnking only a week at a time will get you into real trouble in business.

No one doubts that BR is selling more but the total disk sales numbers don't seem to jive with 23 of 25 being BR releases.Why not? Nielsen estimates have indicated that since the beginning of the year Blu-ray has on a weekly basis outsold HD DVD at anywhere from 2:1 to 4:1. As such it shouldn't be that surprising that 23 of the top 25 selling titles on both HD formats, since the beginning of the year, have been sold on Blu-ray.

Why not? Nielsen estimates have indicated that since the beginning of the year Blu-ray has on a weekly basis outsold HD DVD at anywhere from 2:1 to 4:1. As such it shouldn't be that surprising that 23 of the top 25 selling titles on both HD formats, since the beginning of the year, have been sold on Blu-ray.

YTD figures show BD is a little over 2:1 on HD (544 vs 241). Considering that the difference between top title and the 13th is nearly 4:1 (38K vs 10K) - if HD followed the same kind of distribution, you do expect a lot of HD DVD titles in the top 25. You can do a bit of modeling in excel and see it yourself.

So, yes, it is surprising to find only BD titles from 9 to 25.

Total sales is what I tend to watch, and that doesn't tell me that BR is outselling HD DVD by 4:1 or more, as I have seen a few claim here.

Blu-ray IS outselling HD-DVD by at least 4:1 for the last 3 weeks or so, according to calculations based on Nielsen actual sales.

asj,

yes, but only for three weeks. You should have quoted the rest of his statement.

Thnking only a week at a time will get you into real trouble in business.

Blu-ray IS outselling HD-DVD by at least 4:1 for the last 3 weeks or so, according to calculations based on Nielsen actual sales.

You really don't get it do you? Keep at it, at least you've convinced yourself.

The only scenario I see where 23 of the top 25 disks being BD is if the HD DVD sales are spread across a much wider range of disks while BD is focused on the top 25. Otherwise, IF we would expectat least a third to be HD DVD. Just common logic.

If BD sales, which overall for the year is less than 3:1 advantage over HD DVD then I'd guess those 23 titles are a huge % of the sales. Much more than say the top 25 HD DVD titles....

The question is would studios prefer that 90% sales come from 10% of the titles, or prefer the HD DVD outcome of a more flatter distribution. Probably makes a good case for why studios that have catalog titles to release on both formats - especially HD DVD. Since the BD tail (poor performers) seems to be very long. I am saying this only because we know that the oversales ratio is not 1:12 in favor of BD as this list suggests...

You really don't get it do you? Keep at it, at least you've convinced yourself.

And before that it was outselling HD-DVD by 2:1 for a couple months....

By the end of this year it could be outselling HD-DVD by 6:1, and YTD might be 3:1 or 4:1

asj,

And before that it was outselling HD-DVD by 2:1 for a couple months....

By the end of this year it could be outselling HD-DVD by 6:1, and YTD might be 3:1 or 4:1

and with a couple of big releases like the Matrix and the Bourne series it could be back down to close to 1:1.

plazman,

The only scenario I see where 23 of the top 25 disks being BD is if the HD DVD sales are spread across a much wider range of disks while BD is focused on the top 25. Otherwise, IF we would expectat least a third to be HD DVD. Just common logic.

That is distinctly possible, as the BD braintrust consistently state that the only really critical releases are new day and date, and new blockbusters (e.g., CR). They consistently downplay the role of catalog titles, and indeed some say this is a shortcoming of HD DVD, as Universal has no more recent blockbusters to offer.

OTOH, HD DVD tends to be more catalog oriented, to date, and you would have different people buying different titles.

asj,



and with a couple of big releases like the Matrix and the Bourne series it could be back down to close to 1:1.

catalog titles will not be big........., yes even with matrix pack......
first matrix yup, that one can do it, but as pack no chance........
and Bourne ? hmm hard to tell, because I don't see Bourne on HD DVD making big sales ? so hopefully first part will do better, but by how much........ that's the question...

and with more bigger titles on BR side, I don't see anything close 1:1
first pirates alone will outdo matrix and bourne... plus second pirates, cars, spiderman movies... other top box office performers from last year.......

than pirates 3 , spiderman3 will shake top numbers......
and if disney will put out some other pixar stuff later this year, or lion king etc...
no, nothing like close 1:1

Marek

By the end of this year it could be outselling HD-DVD by 6:1, and YTD might be 3:1 or 4:1

I'm sure this will happen - what with the way PS3 sales are going and the upcoming cheaper HD DVD players ;)

YTD figures show BD is a little over 2:1 on HD (544 vs 241).To be exact that is 2.25:1 and personally I think that helps explain why Nielsen's top 25 graph for both HD formats is so in favor of Blu-ray.


Considering that the difference between top title and the 13th is nearly 4:1 (38K vs 10K) - if HD followed the same kind of distribution, you do expect a lot of HD DVD titles in the top 25.Without knowing the average sales distribution of Blu-ray titles that isn't necessarily true and I think you are placing a lot of weight on the first 3 titles in that list. For instance if that list was made today goodness knows the difference between the 1st and 13th title could be far higher.


So, yes, it is surprising to find only BD titles from 9 to 25.Well I guess it would be surprising to some and impressive to others depending on personal expectations.


The only scenario I see where 23 of the top 25 disks being BD is if the HD DVD sales are spread across a much wider range of disks while BD is focused on the top 25. Otherwise, IF we would expectat least a third to be HD DVD. Just common logic.What one person considers common sense isn't always mathematically correct. I am just saying that without knowing the distribution of Blu-ray titles that top 25 chart might be possible even if both HD formats had the same average sales distributions. Though of course it is also possible they don't have the same average sales distributions.

Marek,

thanks for confirming my post about catalog.

and with more bigger titles on BR side, I don't see anything close 1:1

of course you dont. I wouldnt expect you or asj or beatboy to ever believe that HD DVD could ever do anything even half right.

first pirates alone will outdo matrix and bourne

Depends on how you measure it. If it is in terms of unit sales, sure, because the box set is only 1 sale for three movies. If it is in terms of dollar volume, I am not so sure.


than pirates 3 , spiderman3 will shake top numbers......

I doubt you will see them on BD by the end of the year. Maybe, but I tend to doubt it.

The only scenario I see where 23 of the top 25 disks being BD is if the HD DVD sales are spread across a much wider range of disks while BD is focused on the top 25. Otherwise, IF we would expectat least a third to be HD DVD. Just common logic.

If BD sales, which overall for the year is less than 3:1 advantage over HD DVD then I'd guess those 23 titles are a huge % of the sales. Much more than say the top 25 HD DVD titles....

The question is would studios prefer that 90% sales come from 10% of the titles, or prefer the HD DVD outcome of a more flatter distribution. Probably makes a good case for why studios that have catalog titles to release on both formats - especially HD DVD. Since the BD tail (poor performers) seems to be very long. I am saying this only because we know that the oversales ratio is not 1:12 in favor of BD as this list suggests...
Thanks for this insight.

All 25 titles are action movies (in my view) which would appeal to a certain demographic, not necessarily the same as movie afficionados, i.e. there are few good movies in the list (YMMV).

It might be concluded BD is targeting PS3 owners, which I think is an unstable movie buying group. Sooner or later, they will also run out of action titles.

The movie studios and industry might also notice that in contrast HD-DVD is selling "good" movies, which should keep that format alive. How many PS3 owners will buy The Pianist?

Without knowing the average sales distribution of Blu-ray titles that isn't necessarily true and I think you are placing a lot of weight on the first 3 titles in that list.

With the 3 numbers we know roughly where 13 titles stand. Good enough to figure out a distribution. And yes, it is surprising.

I hope we find more info on numbers to figure this out ...

The question is would studios prefer that 90% sales come from 10% of the titles, or prefer the HD DVD outcome of a more flatter distribution.

If you had one group, and it was selling twice as many copies of new movies than the other group... or one group that was selling more catalog copies... but not as many new copies... then you go to the one showing the most growth (new movies seller) and expect the catalog releases to pick up.

But that's just me. I can't remember for sure, but I'm pretty sure new titles were what sold DVD and catalog titles only a small percent during the early years as well. I do know that DVD didn't get as many catalog releases as either HDM format is getting during the same time period...

~Alan

Not that I know of...again, unless you can show me some defining event or trend that HD-DVD is somehow starting to gain on Blu-ray, then i really don't see HD-DVD catching up at all. In fact, that list vividly shows how far behind HD-DVD already is, and there is no denying the fact that (1) the PS3 will continue to outsell all HD-DVD players b a wide margin, (2) Blu-ray still has significantly more exclusive studios than HD-DVD, the impact of which will continue to increase as time passes. Until either of those factors change, i cannot foresee HD-DVD catching up to Blu-ray.

On the other hand, we do have past trends that show DVD doing not as well as Blu-ray today, which points to the tentative conclusion that Blu-ray can still very much outdo DVD in the long run.

HD-DVD will catch up to Blu-ray in the next few weeks because all the discs given away by CC (and possibly BB next week) will be counted as disk sales, the way they ring up. So roughly 700 CC stores. If they sell 1 A2 per day for 7 days, that is 4900 A2's. 4900*4=19600. Combine that with the 10k or so discs that were already selling and Nielsen numbers should show HD-DVD essentially even with BD for the week. If BB does the promotion, then the same for the next week (except there are 1150 BB's, so the number should be higher, if the discs are rang the same way, which I believe Toshiba is requiring them to be). If the A2 average better than 1 per store per day, then sales should surpass BD for that week. Then throw in a big release or two like CoM and Smokin Aces, and it should be enough to turn the Nielsen numbers around to where the two formats sell equally for 2-3 weeks.

Again, I think by the end of June, sales ratios will be very close to 1-1.5:1 YTD and 1:1 SI.

It might be concluded BD is targeting PS3 owners, which I think is an unstable movie buying group. Sooner or later, they will also run out of action titles.

I'm a XBox (First-Gen) and Wii owner, but I'm fixing to get a PS3 to view Blu-Ray films. I'm not what I would consider an average PS3 owner or X-Box owner either, but I would think the PS3 and XBox 360 owners would share similar movie tastes... but maybe that's just me.

The movie studios and industry might also notice that in contrast HD-DVD is selling "good" movies, which should keep that format alive. How many PS3 owners will buy The Pianist?

Actually, that would depend on your definition of good. I currently own most of the titles from Universal that I'm interested in, and the majority of the remaining have already been announced as coming later this year... meaning that I would run out of "Exclusive" HD DVD catalog titles later this year, yet I still have a lot more to buy on the Blu-Ray side... not even counting the catalog titles from the neutral studios.

As for "The Pianist," I've always wanted to see that movie, but I don't think I'd care to buy it anytime soon...

~Alan

Does anyone know how many new titles were sold on HD & BD in 2007 ? I can't figure out all the colors in the release list. I'm looking for only recent feature titles (by that I mean not HDNet etc).

Hello!?!

1.1-1.2 million PS3s sold in America. If you count possibly 100k-200k Stand alone players sold that brings us to 1.4 million maybe.

HD-DVD claimed 175k HD-DVD Players sold last year. With the 360 add on sales for this year and stand alone sales you might get to 300k-375k.

Regardless, it's nothing close to 15 to 1. It might be 15 to 1 worldwide, but the only sales we are comparing on disc sales here in America.

If you actually look at the data we have available. HD-DVD sales of discs are around 900k, that's only a 3:1 attach rate.

Blu-ray has sold 1.15 million discs, bringing it close to a 1:1 attachment rate.

You are so ridiculous it's hilarious, these numbers are easily verified by checking NPD sales for PS3s and the data we have from Toshiba themselves at the end of last year, and HD-DVD add on sales which are available every month from NPD.

I think someone is FOS.
Actually, even the lowest estimate I've seen (vgchartz) has 1.35 million PS3's sold - for the US alone. And the 1.15 million Bluray discs you are quoting is worldwide - so how do you arrive at 1.1 to one.

If you want to get an attach rate, you'll have to divide that 1.15 million discs worldwide by the worldwide total of players - which is 3.07 million PS3s, plus an unknown quantity of standalone BD players.

What we DO know is that the BD attach rate is LESS THAN 0.37 per player - how MUCH less only depends on how many BD strandalone players there are out there.

Even by these numbers, the HD DVD attach rate is almost 10 TIMES that of BD...

I also find it difficult to believe that the red MI3 and Superman Returns did not sell even 10K disks. What is the context of this list? Is it since inception or 2007 only?

I don''t understand how Warner's statements on titles selling well "on both formats" can be reconciled with this list. If we use a natural progression of numbers and the rate of decline on that list, #25 KoH, may not even sell 5000 disks, that would be a sad pill for me to take since I love this movie, but to think that no other HD DVD would sell at least 10,000 is difficult to understand. All studios must be bleeding massive red ink from all the highdef movies they are producing.

I don't know what is worse : that the sales numbers per title are all so low or that Babel and Click outsold KoH. I'm going to have reach for more of the good stuff to wash this down.

This is 2007 only.

trgraphics,



Who knows, and that is the thing about rankings. With the low overall sales in terms of absolute numbers and for the individual titles, it is quite possible that the absolute differences between many of those titles is only a couple of hundred discs.

One has no idea whatsoever what the absolute differences are between the different titles.

Correct. 10,346 is for the #13 spot. The #25 spot could be 9,800. HD-DVD could hold 90% of the #25-#100 spots (with #100 selling 8k copies), with a mix of blue and red after. This list doesn't prove that BD is putting a smack down on HD-DVD. Sony is the source and they filtered out enough info to slant the conclusions their way. If Sony also domintaed the #25-#50 spot, don't you think they would have released that too? More than likely HD-DVD dominates the majority of the next slots after #25.

Correct. 10,346 is for the #13 spot. The #25 spot could be 9,800. HD-DVD could hold 90% of the #25-#100 spots (with #100 selling 8k copies), with a mix of blue and red after. This list doesn't prove that BD is putting a smack down on HD-DVD. Sony is the source and they filtered out enough info to slant the conclusions their way. If Sony also domintaed the #25-#50 spot, don't you think they would have released that too? More than likely HD-DVD dominates the majority of the next slots after #25.

I'm not convinced this list is correct. It could be the first 10 are correct. Rest are only BD because they were supposed to be - they have removed the HD DVDs from there. We haven't seen the original Sony PR - so we can't really tell.

I'm not convinced this list is correct. It could be the first 10 are correct. Rest are only BD because they were supposed to be - they have removed the HD DVDs from there. We haven't seen the original Sony PR - so we can't really tell.


It's possible though. Weren't most of those discs Amazon and BB sale titles?

I suppose the normal ratios for hmm tomorrow is not coming out?

I think that Sony realizes that HD DVD sales are closing in on Bluray very fast and figures they should make some quick news about their soon-to-be-history past sales lead.

Take a look at the sales of the top 25 for both formats over the last few weeks:

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank100-1-1-recent30.jpg

The picture looks even worse for the top 10:

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank-1-1-recent30.jpg
And with even more HD DVD releases in the pipe, Bluray will not be boasting of huge leads for long...

Their PS3 sales surge, as you can see above, has now plummeted. While they can boast that they had 21 of the top 25 for a brief amount of time, a more objective look at CURRENT numbers shows that this will soon be history.

Tomorrow's figures should be interesting, assuming Home Media Magazine comes through for us again.

---

As for the numbers in Sony's announcement... well, it's from Sony. Doesn't make it automatically incorrect, but certain warrants a serving of sodium chloride for sure, depending on what they haven't mentioned.

Their PS3 sales surge, as you can see above, has now plummeted.Uhm... no. What's plummeted is the affect of the Fox BD sale from last month. Change the view to "Show all" and you can see that BD is still gradually climbing. On the other hand, HD DVD seems to be having trouble even breaking even.

Of course, The Matrix will probably provide a temporary bump, but I don't expect it to be much more significant than Casino Royale (in fact, looking at the rankings right now, it looks like both of the Pirates of the Caribbean films are ahead of the Matrix trilogy).

Uhm... no. What's plummeted is the affect of the Fox BD sale from last month. Change the view to "Show all" and you can see that BD is still gradually climbing. On the other hand, HD DVD seems to be having trouble even breaking even.

Of course, The Matrix will probably provide a temporary bump, but I don't expect it to be much more significant than Casino Royale (in fact, looking at the rankings right now, it looks like both of the Pirates of the Caribbean films are ahead of the Matrix trilogy).

BD is still out releasing HD-DVD, at least for the next couple of weeks. I think that may have more to do with BD climbing. It will be interesting to see how things hold up in the long run, since BD does have more studio support. In the end though, I think cheaper hardware prices will prevail over any content advantage.

Americans just traditionally want cheap products, whether they are complete or not. Be it sub $10,000 cars with no air bags or anti lock brakes; $30 DVD players that will die in three months, have no digital out, and sometimes no component; or $4 fast food meals with little or no nutritional value (often they are counter nutritious).

I think that Sony realizes that HD DVD sales are closing in on Bluray very fast and figures they should make some quick news about their soon-to-be-history past sales lead.I have been hearing that from a few HD DVD supporters for almost 3 months now. Funny that none of them ever put an exact week, or even month, on when HD DVD is supposed to take the lead from Blu-ray.


Take a look at the sales of the top 25 for both formats over the last few weeks:rdjam, it is interesting that you point out the top 25 since that is an area in which Blu-ray has done better than HD DVD since that graph was added to that website. Also it isn't very honest trying to mislead people into thinking that something is wrong when anyone who looks at the whole graph (http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/) "show all" can see that Blu-ray is actually doing better after the 2 week Amazon Blu-ray sale (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=815574) than before it. As for the top ten it is true that HD DVD is doing better in Amazon ranking, but let us see how much that will actually affect the next Nielsen sales ratio.


Their PS3 sales surge, as you can see above, has now plummeted.rdjam, for someone who has the word respect in your signature you certainly aren't respecting the people on this forum. You know that the sales lowered on Amazon because of the end of the 2 week Amazon Blu-ray sale (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=815574) and not telling people that fact is rather misleading.


While they can boast that they had 21 of the top 25 for a brief amount of time, a more objective look at CURRENT numbers shows that this will soon be history.Well for one thing it is 23 out of 25 and considering current Nielsen ratios indicate Blu-ray outselling HD DVD by 4:1 the current sales numbers do not support that belief.

Uhm... no. What's plummeted is the affect of the Fox BD sale from last month. Change the view to "Show all" and you can see that BD is still gradually climbing. On the other hand, HD DVD seems to be having trouble even breaking even.

Of course, The Matrix will probably provide a temporary bump, but I don't expect it to be much more significant than Casino Royale (in fact, looking at the rankings right now, it looks like both of the Pirates of the Caribbean films are ahead of the Matrix trilogy).
Actually, show all only expands the view, which compresses the sales line and makes the drop appear smaller. But there's no question that BD sales are still dropping, while HD DVD sales continue to climb.

Furthermore, Pirate of the Caribbean on BR is being outsold by MULTIPLE HD DVD releases, including: Happy Feet, The Good Shepherd and Planet Earth.

As far as The Matrix HD DVD is concerned, it is three to four times the price of POC, since it is a full trilogy, yet it still ranks 232 vs. 215 for POC. There is almost no difference in sales volume, yet likely a huge difference in revenue.

Actually, show all only expands the view, which compresses the sales line and makes the drop appear smaller. But there's no question that BD sales are still dropping, while HD DVD sales continue to climb.
Considering Blu-ray is coming off its two strongest weeks ever in Nielsen reporting, and that HD DVD is coming out of its two weakest weeks in recent months, this statement means very little.

Furthermore, Pirate of the Caribbean on BR is being outsold by MULTIPLE HD DVD releases, including: Happy Feet, The Good Shepherd and Planet Earth.
Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 aren't due for imminent release (May 22).

As far as The Matrix HD DVD is concerned, it is three to four times the price of POC, since it is a full trilogy, yet it still ranks 232 vs. 215 for POC. There is almost no difference in sales volume, yet likely a huge difference in revenue.
Uh... do you ever listen to yourself when you talk? Allow me to belabor the obvious but neither Pirates of the Caribbean nor The Matrix are released yet, so naturally sales are exactly equal. They're both zero.

Now, if you'd like to discuss pre-orders, kindly take that discussion off this thread, which is devoted to Nielsen / VideoScan sales, which measure only retailer sell-through on released products.

Can we please stay on topic?

I have been hearing that from a few HD DVD supporters for almost 3 months now. Funny that none of them ever put an exact week, or even month, on when HD DVD is supposed to take the lead from Blu-ray.Well I, for one, have predicted the PS3 sales surge from new owners would peter off after the initial curiosity faded, and yes, that is what the numbers show now. Meanwhile, HD DVD sales have surged again. Which one of these two statements are you denying?

rdjam, it is interesting that you point out the top 25 since that is an area in which Blu-ray has done better than HD DVD since that graph was added to that website. Yes, it "was". That is changing again now, as you can see.

Also it isn't very honest trying to mislead people into thinking that something is wrong when anyone who looks at the whole graph "show all" can see that Blu-ray is actually doing better after the 2 week Amazon Blu-ray sale than before it. Like this?

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank100-1-1-All.jpg

As you can see, there was a pretty nasty plunge shortly before the sale, which probably precipitated the decision to have the hasty sale put together. There is no question that the PS3 surge was ending before the sale. The sale clearly delayed it, but the numbers are still on the way down.

As for the top ten it is true that HD DVD is doing better in Amazon rankingUh, thanks

rdjam, for someone who has the word respect in your signature you certainly aren't respecting the people on this forum. Perhaps just for ONCE, you could have a debate without taking it to a personal level. I feel that would be something many folks respect.

You know that the sales lowered on Amazon because of the end of the 2 week Amazon Blu-ray sale and not telling people that fact is rather dishonest.Despite your claim re: honesty, the BR numbers were plunging before the sale and are on their way down again. Talking about the sale like it caused this is a smoke screen, IMO.

Well for one thing it is 23 out of 25 and considering current Nielsen ratios indicate Blu-ray outselling HD DVD by 4:1.This is the cute thing about the effect of the PS3 new owner surge and the sale - it means that folks like Sony can come out with a press release showing that many of the top 25 (no it wasn't 23 of 25) for that period were BD. It dostorts the true picture. NOW the true picture is really being seen, and BD is in trouble.

Considering Blu-ray is coming off its two strongest weeks ever in Nielsen reporting, and that HD DVD is coming out of its two weakest weeks in recent months, this statement means very little.pure hyperbole - a look at the graph shows clearly that this was not near HD DVD's weakest two weeks. And BR's sales being it's strongest ever, was by admission solely due to the sale.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank100-1-1-All.jpg

Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 aren't due for imminent release (May 22). Same goes for the Matrix.

Uh... do you ever listen to yourself when you talk? Allow me to belabor the obvious but neither Pirates of the Caribbean nor The Matrix are released yet, so naturally sales are exactly equal. They're both zero.Incorrect, my friend. You can clearly see that they have a ranking in these charts, clearly based on their pre-orders, so that statement is transparent.

Now, if you'd like to discuss pre-orders, kindly take that discussion off this thread, which is devoted to Nielsen / VideoScan sales, which measure only retailer sell-through on released products.

Can we please stay on topic?Interesting that the only sales numbers some folks wish to talk about are the ones that show the most "sympatico" towards BD? ;)

Interesting that the only sales numbers some folks wish to talk about are the ones that show the most "sympatico" towards BD? ;)
I'm sorry, but do you see the title of this thread? I have called repeatedly for people to stay on topic.

If you feel you must turn every thread into a format battleground, so be it, but I am tired of seeing the partisans on BOTH sides taking potshots at one another, particularly in this thread which is devoted to demystifying the numbers and undoing the spin from both sides.

Since you refuse to respect standard forum etiquette, in the absence of moderator action, let me also welcome you to my ignore list.

I'm sorry, but do you see the title of this thread? I have called repeatedly for people to stay on topic.

If you feel you must turn every thread into a format battleground, so be it, but I am tired of seeing the partisans on BOTH sides taking potshots at one another, particularly in this thread which is devoted to demystifying the numbers and undoing the spin from both sides.

Since you refuse to respect standard forum etiquette, in the absence of moderator action, let me also welcome you to my ignore list.
The whole purpose of this thread is a comparison of the two formats, let's face it. So calling a discussion on sales of the two is off topic now because the balance appears to be shifting?

The Amazon numbers are a leading indicator for the Neilsen/Videoscan numbers, so this discussion is hardly off-topic.

Objecting because the content of the discussion may not suit your preference is potentially shortsighted, or an attempt to censor another opinion.

It is my opinion that the Neilsen numbers will also start to reflect what we are seeing on Amazon.

But there's no question that BD sales are still dropping, while HD DVD sales continue to climb.rdjam, besides the fact that you continue to ignore the effects of the Amazon Blu-ray sale you are also ignoring the latest Nielsen sales ratios.


There is no question that the PS3 surge was ending before the sale.That is an opinion and not a fact.


Perhaps just for ONCE, you could have a debate without taking it to a personal level.I rarely take debates on this forum personally but I do react badly when I think a poster is trying to be deceptive.


Despite your claim re: honesty, the BR numbers were plunging before the sale and are on their way down again.Well besides depending on which charts you are looking at that does not address the issue of why you didn't mention the Amazon Blu-ray sales in your earlier post. Also rdjam if you don't want to believe the Nielsen sales figures why than are you posting in this thread?


This is the cute thing about the effect of the PS3 new owner surge and the sale - it means that folks like Sony can come out with a press release showing that many of the top 25 (no it wasn't 23 of 25) for that period were BD.Actually it is 23 out of 25 and though it was released by Sony it was a A.C. Nielsen VideoScan Tracking Report (http://www.dvdtown.com/news/nielsentrackingreporttellswhichhdsells/4401).

Since this no doubt your response to my decision to Ignore you, I respond to this final post from you before your words are forever silenced on my screen.

The whole purpose of this thread is a comparison of the two formats, let's face it. So calling a discussion on sales of the two is off topic now because the balance appears to be shifting?
This thread is not a comparison of the two formats. It is an attempt to derive some truth from the neutral numbers released by Nielsen/VideoScan.

If you feel that this verbal duelling with members of the "other side" somehow accomplishes anything but trashing what has been (prior to your personal involvement) a relatively quiet and civilized discussion, then I pity you, because you have placed your blind faith in an ephemeral technology above the pursuit of truth.

The Amazon numbers are a leading indicator for the Neilsen/Videoscan numbers, so this discussion is hardly off-topic.
Not so. The Departed sales showed HD DVD winning on Amazon, but the Nielsen results clearly indicate that the Blu-ray version won. Amazon rankings are extremely treacherous indicators because they are time-sensitive future projections as compared to other products in similar categories, not indicators of current sales volumes.

Objecting because the content of the discussion may not suit your preference is potentially shortsighted, or an attempt to censor another opinion.
I object when people trample on perfectly good discussions to pursue their pointless crusades. If the Blu-ray supporters on this forum were being as obstructionist towards the progress of this thread as you have been over the past several pages, I would be adding them to my ignore list as well.

It is my opinion that the Neilsen numbers will also start to reflect what we are seeing on Amazon.
We're not seeing much of anything unexpected on Amazon. HD DVD sales are naturally going to increase in the immediate short term; it would be disastrous to HD DVD if sales do not recover in the wake of a 1 month moratorium on releases.

As such, I'm sure all of our expectations are that HD DVD will stabilize its sales over the next weeks. As for your personal opinion, there's no point in me discussing it with you since I won't be seeing any more of your relentless drumbeating in the future.

Have a nice day. :)

The only scenario I see where 23 of the top 25 disks being BD is if the HD DVD sales are spread across a much wider range of disks while BD is focused on the top 25.

And this could be the case. Have you looked at the theatrical release dates of those Top 25 discs?

1. The Departed 2006
2. Casino Royale 2006
3. The Departed 2006
4. The Prestige 2006
5. Crank 2006
6. Saw 3 2006
7. Superman Returns 2006
8 Batman Begins 2005
9. Black Hawk Down 2001
10. Underworld Evolution 2006
11. The Fifth Element 1997
12. X-Men: The Last Stand 2006
13. Talladega Nights 2006
14. The Guardian 2006
15. Open Season 2006
16. Ice Age: The Meltdown 2006
17. Babel 2006
18. Flyboys 2006
19. House of Flying Daggers 2004
20. Mission Impossible Collection 1996-2006
21. Click 2006
22. The Terminator 1984
23. The Covenant 2006
24. Gridiron Gang 2006
25. Kingdom of Heaven 2005

Almost all of these movies are brand new, and these types of movies generally do better than older releases.

So it makes sense that the Top 25 would be biased towards Blu-ray even though total sales ratios don't show an equally strong bias.

Of course this doesn't explain why e.g. King Kong didn't make it into the list.

Of course this doesn't explain why e.g. King Kong didn't make it into the list.
I find that strange, too. We suspect that around half, perhaps more, of the HD DVD players out there are 360 add-ons that shipped with King Kong included. We know that about 500,000 PS3 owners got a copy of Talladega Nights.

So how come Talladega Nights is on the list, but King Kong isn't? Does anyone have an explanation?

I find that strange, too. We suspect that around half, perhaps more, of the HD DVD players out there are 360 add-ons that shipped with King Kong included. We know that about 500,000 PS3 owners got a copy of Talladega Nights.

So how come Talladega Nights is on the list, but King Kong isn't? Does anyone have an explanation?

For starters King Kong isnt a very good movie. ;)

About Tallagada Nights...

PS3 Owners didnt want to wait
Alot of PS3 owners (post 500 000) wanted the movie.
PS3 owners are morons and bought the same movie twice.
Or some of the free copies of Talladega night was counted as a sale.

I find that strange, too. We suspect that around half, perhaps more, of the HD DVD players out there are 360 add-ons that shipped with King Kong included. We know that about 500,000 PS3 owners got a copy of Talladega Nights.

So how come Talladega Nights is on the list, but King Kong isn't? Does anyone have an explanation?

No, but there are only a few possibilities:

1) Nielsen VideoScan have miscalculated and reported numbers incorrectly
2) Since 1/1/07 (the start point for this chart) Talladega Nights has sold sufficiently more copies than King Kong to make the chart.
3) KK has sold fewer copies in 2007 than kingdom of Heaven at #25.

I can't think of others - maybe other people can.

Well over 500,000 PS3's have sold without a free 'Talladega Nights' so maybe this movie apeals to the PS3 owner demographic in some way.

KoH outsells KK by a wide margin on the Amazon chart as you can see:

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy05/amazonkohvskk.jpg

On the other hand KK currently outsells TN on Amazon - maybe TN had better sales at the start of the year.

I don't know how it is in the US, but here in Canadian BestBuys and Walmarts, the 360 addon still has the free KK disks. Whatever initial shipment there was that went out last year, there is still a lot of units stacking up - while walmarts typically carry only two boxes, The two bestbuys nearest me at last check have about 15-20 in a pile out of maybe 30 or so from xmas of 2006, and they all have the free KK sticker. Even in ebgames you wil find two boxes with the KK sticker.

This means no xbox 360 addon owner woud need to buy a KK disk. It also means there is a lot of inventory in the channel.

PS3 however sold out their initial shipment, and although I don't enjoy TN, I imagine there are people who do, and later PS3 owners don't have it in box.

For starters King Kong isnt a very good movie. ;)

About Tallagada Nights...

PS3 Owners didnt want to wait
Alot of PS3 owners (post 500 000) wanted the movie.
PS3 owners are morons and bought the same movie twice.
Or some of the free copies of Talladega night was counted as a sale.

no free copies are counted as sale, so no KK, no TN are counted...

Marek

The sale clearly delayed it, but the numbers are still on the way down.
Am I missing something here? The graph you show has BD numbers slightly higher at the end of the graph than they are at the start. There's a big decline after the sale but I don't see the decline that you are describing, at least as far as that graph is concerned.

The Amazon numbers are a leading indicator for the Neilsen/Videoscan numbers, so this discussion is hardly off-topic.
I'm pretty sure Icemage was referring to your discussion of preorders, which would be off topic. They're not factored into the Neilsen numbers until they ship and are not a great indicator of what actually happens once the street date hits.

Marek,

thanks for confirming my post about catalog.

of course you dont. I wouldnt expect you or asj or beatboy to ever believe that HD DVD could ever do anything even half right.

Depends on how you measure it. If it is in terms of unit sales, sure, because the box set is only 1 sale for three movies. If it is in terms of dollar volume, I am not so sure.

I doubt you will see them on BD by the end of the year. Maybe, but I tend to doubt it.

Hey George,

are you trying to label me ? did I said anytime something personal to you ?
can you please point me at least to one post that I am bashing HD DVD ?
are you puting me to some elite BR groupe ? :) come on George :)
at least I own toshiba xa1 player with my BR player, do you own blu-ray player ?

Well we will see soon how Pirates will handle Matrix :) I am sure it will get big publicity when some numbers will be out.... you are right about number of units, and we will see about dolar value count....

and about Pirates 3 and Spiderman 3...

Do you really thing that they WILL MISS OPURTUNITY TO MAKE MAX PROFIT on DAY AND DATE release for those potentionaly biggiest sellers this year ?

they would be totaly crazy and stupid to not release them...

For that videoscan list, one question for me is why red Superman Returns did not make top25. Babel-BD at #17 and MI collection BD at #20 could mean the hd versions might be at #26,#27, but SR (BD) is at #7.

For that videoscan list, one question for me is why red Superman Returns did not make top25. Babel-BD at #17 and MI collection BD at #20 could mean the hd versions might be at #26,#27, but SR (BD) is at #7.

maybe it's because this list is YTD 2007........
and there were more new blu-ray players (PS3) in 2007, so more potential buyers..., maybe that's the reason that SR HD DVD is not in the list....

it would be great to have at least TOP 50 for YTD and for SI with sales numbers...

Marek

Originally Posted by Icemage
I find that strange, too. We suspect that around half, perhaps more, of the HD DVD players out there are 360 add-ons that shipped with King Kong included. We know that about 500,000 PS3 owners got a copy of Talladega Nights.

So how come Talladega Nights is on the list, but King Kong isn't? Does anyone have an explanation?

i have an explanation for it. most families dont want to sit trough a 3 hour borefest that is kong. they want to see a comedy / action movie that fits perfect in the american culture.

and that is talledaga nights. it simply doesnt get any more americana then that. so ofcourse it is logical that talledaga nights sells better then king kong.

This thread is not a comparison of the two formats. It is an attempt to derive some truth from the neutral numbers released by Nielsen/VideoScan.
I for one would like to see if there's a (graphical) correlation between VS and Amazon. Could someone do a plot of relevant numbers? I see a BD surge that's ending in the Amazon numbers, is it there in the VS #'s?

P.S. in what other thread can we compare and discuss relative numbers, as they come up? If it's done in another thread any discussion gets fragmented and useless.

No, but there are only a few possibilities:

1) Nielsen VideoScan have miscalculated and reported numbers incorrectly
2) Since 1/1/07 (the start point for this chart) Talladega Nights has sold sufficiently more copies than King Kong to make the chart.
3) KK has sold fewer copies in 2007 than kingdom of Heaven at #25.

I can't think of others - maybe other people can.

Well over 500,000 PS3's have sold without a free 'Talladega Nights' so maybe this movie apeals to the PS3 owner demographic in some way.

KoH outsells KK by a wide margin on the Amazon chart as you can see:

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy05/amazonkohvskk.jpg

On the other hand KK currently outsells TN on Amazon - maybe TN had better sales at the start of the year.


Wasn't KoH an Amazon sale title? Wouldn't that explain the "outsells by a wide margin"? It was like $15 for two weeks. If not for the sale, it sales around the same as KK.

King Kong is an easy one. The original shipment of 360 addons with the free KK still has a lot of inventory in the channel. If you walk in Bestbuys in canada, you should be able to get those addons with the free KK. Meaning x360 addon owners already have KK.

PS3 on the other hand already sold out the first shipment, and whatever returns are generally gone by january, meaning the people who bought PS3s later don't get the TN disk, and would have to buy them.

Wasn't KoH an Amazon sale title? Wouldn't that explain the "outsells by a wide margin"? It was like $15 for two weeks. If not for the sale, it sales around the same as KK.If you look at the chart, KoH was outselling King King by a fair margin even before the 1st week of March, when the sale started.

I don't know how it is in the US, but here in Canadian BestBuys and Walmarts, the 360 addon still has the free KK disks. Whatever initial shipment there was that went out last year, there is still a lot of units stacking up - while walmarts typically carry only two boxes, The two bestbuys nearest me at last check have about 15-20 in a pile out of maybe 30 or so from xmas of 2006, and they all have the free KK sticker. Even in ebgames you wil find two boxes with the KK sticker.

This means no xbox 360 addon owner woud need to buy a KK disk. It also means there is a lot of inventory in the channel.

PS3 however sold out their initial shipment, and although I don't enjoy TN, I imagine there are people who do, and later PS3 owners don't have it in box.

MS has not removed KK from its product yet. A new drive manufactured today would still get a KK disc. So just because you see an addon with the KK sticker doesn't mean old inventory that has been around since Christmas. It could have been manufactured yesterday.

I find that strange, too. We suspect that around half, perhaps more, of the HD DVD players out there are 360 add-ons that shipped with King Kong included. We know that about 500,000 PS3 owners got a copy of Talladega Nights.

So how come Talladega Nights is on the list, but King Kong isn't? Does anyone have an explanation?

i have an explanation for it. most families dont want to sit trough a 3 hour borefest that is kong. they want to see a comedy / action movie that fits perfect in the american culture.

and that is talledaga nights. it simply doesnt get any more americana then that. so ofcourse it is logical that talledaga nights sells better then king kong.

I could see you're point but I think you're shortchanging King Kong a bit.

Boxofficemojo figures for King Kong:
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=kingkong05.htm

Domestic: $218,080,025 39.7%
+ Foreign: $331,278,422 60.3%

= Worldwide: $549,358,447

Boxofficemojo figures for Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=talladeganights.htm

Domestic: $148,213,377 90.9%
+ Foreign: $14,752,800 9.1%

= Worldwide: $162,966,177

As you can see, Talladega Nights is a much stronger release on its home soil in the USA, while King Kong did more of its business abroad. However, the total box office sales for King Kong were significantly higher than for Talladega Nights...

Was Talladega Nights a day and date release? Perhaps most people already owned King Kong on SD DVD and refused to double dip?

If you look at the chart, KoH was outselling King King by a fair margin even before the 1st week of March, when the sale started.


I wouldn't call that "a fair margin". The difference in rank from 1500 to 2500 is likely 5-10 copies. 5-10 copies more is not "a fair margin".

King Kong is an easy one. The original shipment of 360 addons with the free KK still has a lot of inventory in the channel. If you walk in Bestbuys in canada, you should be able to get those addons with the free KK. Meaning x360 addon owners already have KK.

PS3 on the other hand already sold out the first shipment, and whatever returns are generally gone by january, meaning the people who bought PS3s later don't get the TN disk, and would have to buy them.

The original shipment of 360 addons sold out FYI.

If you look at the chart, KoH was outselling King King by a fair margin even before the 1st week of March, when the sale started.
KoH was 19.97 on amazon, still 2c more than warner titles.

No, but there are only a few possibilities:

1) Nielsen VideoScan have miscalculated and reported numbers incorrectly
2) Since 1/1/07 (the start point for this chart) Talladega Nights has sold sufficiently more copies than King Kong to make the chart.
3) KK has sold fewer copies in 2007 than kingdom of Heaven at #25.

I can't think of others - maybe other people can.
Could it be that N/V is accepting data from Sony that says the included TN were "sold"? Part of their Hydra project?

So how come Talladega Nights is on the list, but King Kong isn't? Does anyone have an explanation?

If I had to guess its becauses KK came out on DVD at the end of March '06 and TN BD was D&D with DVD.

KK has never set the HD DVD world on fire for some reason. Never cracked Amazons top 100 and can be had for peanuts on eBay and at Video game stores that sell used DVDs. In fact I have seen the same used copy for sale for months at one of my local Music and Movie disc shops.

In my opinion IF sales of neutral titles were so much in favor of BD, would it not indicate that Paramount at least and Warner perhaps should consider tilting to BD for their releases? The fact they are not implies that sales must be pretty close for them to maintain neutrality.

Also 28K CR disks sold is far below any other estimate I have seen, especially for a title that made the Amazon top 10. If anything, I am leaning towards the belief that Amazon is not factored in Nielson. Otherwise these numbers are just too low overall. As far as B&M, it's possible that BD has 23 of the 25 if my BB is any indicator. I have yet to find an HD DVD title available on the week it was released except for Happy Feet.

Anyway, for one format to have a 2:1 sales lead overall and 12:1 share of the top 25 is interesting. If we didn't have the Videoscan overall results, we might have inferred incorrectly that BD has over 90% of the market this year.

So, it does appear that BD sells more copies of the top titles, while HD DVD sells more of the rest. A graph with sale units on the ( axis and titles (sorted by sales rank) would have BD much above HD DVD at the start of the graph and then have HD DVD higher than BD for the rest of the graph due to a slower decline.

Also 28K CR disks sold is far below any other estimate I have seen, especially for a title that made the Amazon top 10.What estimates? Where?
If anything, I am leaning towards the belief that Amazon is not factored in Nielson.You mean, despite the fact that it's already been confirmed by HMM that Amazon is included?

My math is too rusty for me to give a good probablity of this kind of distribution of top titles - given the 2.5:1 sales ratio. But I suspect it is very low. Usually the distribution for such items would be exponential (i.e. difference between #1 and #10 would be much higher than #90 and #100).

Assuming an exponential distribution and that every HD title sold 2.5 times less than BD, I expect atleast 5 out of top 25 titles to be HD.

What estimates? Where?
You mean, despite the fact that it's already been confirmed by HMM that Amazon is included?

I thought Amazon were not included around the time Blu-ray was selling like hotcakes on Amazon.

However I now accept that they are, but Amazon are not actually that big a deal in terms of overall volume. As we have recently seen with the Amazon sale, their unit sales cannot be that significant as a % of the total Nielsen data - maybe only 10% or less?

Most of Nielsen data comes from B&M stores. So do most of the sales.

The Amazon charts are a rough guide that allow us to say one thing is more popular than another thing (on Amazon) but it gives no real clue as to volume sales or even market share. It is an indicator but nothing more.

The only US retailer I'm aware of that indicates market share is DVD Empire. They report numbers at present that reflect quite closely what Nielsen are reporting - a sales ratio of 70:30 in Blu-ray's favour.

In any event unless people think Nielsen are lying or are misreporting, the cold hard fact is that in 2007 (to date) 23 of the top 25 selling HD movies are on the Blu-ray format. I undertstand that some HD DVD supporters don't like that but there it is.

If I read the article correctly, the number is actual tracked sellthrough numbers from stores participating in nielsen. Meaning the numbers are not scaled up, walmart and other sales are not counted. Either we take the usual 2.5x to get actual numbers or find some other way to predict other numbers, the actual sell through numbers would still be higher.

If 2.5 is the right multiplier, 28K x 2.5 would be 70K (for 5 days). This means Departed BD at 95K is still ahead of CR by 25K, but Departed had 33 days of sales compared to 5 for CR.

Well, lets hear the official propaganda machine on both sides fight this one out.

If the numbers are in dispute, Toshiba and HD DVD PG would dispute this release with their own copy of the nielsen tracking report, since it is reports like this that make more fence sitters jump into BD.

If I was sitting this out until a winner emerged, wouldn't this list awash in a sea of blu titles make me buy something?

However I now accept that they are, but Amazon are not actually that big a deal in terms of overall volume. As we have recently seen with the Amazon sale, their unit sales cannot be that significant as a % of the total Nielsen data - maybe only 10% or less?

Yes, that is what we calculated for CR. Something like 10 to 15%. Also for a comparison, they sell 3 to 5% of HD DVD players ...

In any event unless people think Nielsen are lying or are misreporting, the cold hard fact is that in 2007 (to date) 23 of the top 25 selling HD movies are on the Blu-ray format. I undertstand that some HD DVD supporters don't like that but there it is.

There is another possibility. We only saw a 3rd party report of what Sony says is the Videoscan numbers. I suspect some misreported.

For eg what if Sony said "These are the top ten HiDef DVD titles ..... and here are the other top 15 BD titles".

Edit : From the numbers released by SPHE - it looks like the list is correct (no wonder they released it !). More analysis is needed to see what actually happened.

If 2.5 is the right multiplier, 28K x 2.5 would be 70K (for 5 days). This means Departed BD at 95K is still ahead of CR by 25K, but Departed had 33 days of sales compared to 5 for CR.

I strongly suspect 2.5 is very wrong when it comes to HiDef DVD. That is probably a good indicator for DVD - what with Walmart and Target ( ?) missing. I don't think they sell many HiDef discs at all. I expect Videoscan numbers to be close to the actual total.

I strongly suspect 2.5 is very wrong when it comes to HiDef DVD. That is probably a good indicator for DVD - what with Walmart and Target ( ?) missing. I don't think they sell many HiDef discs at all. I expect Videoscan numbers to be close to the actual total.
Does that mean walmart don't sell many disks?

Walmarts near my home carry about 1/3 the number of highdef disks that Bestbuy has, but there are significantly more walmarts than bestbuys.

OK. To be clear. I am not arguing that the data is wrong, but what this would mean for a studio that wants to release a lot of titles soon. It says, that if you release a lot of catalog titles then HD DVD is the better bet, since you are likely to sell more on avg. However, if you want to sell a more recent title BD is better - not withstanding The Deaprted and Batman on HD DVD. So, it makes sense for studios to pull older catalog titles from their BD release schedule and yet not lose much in terms of overall sales.

I know some companies like to have all their eggs in one basket, but for those who don't want all their eggs in the PS3/gamer market HD DVD may be the more robust format - already!

So, depending on how you analyze the data, there is something to think about - not something JB does very often ;)

As far as the 28K for CR, I thought 50K were sold on day 1 out of 100K shipped....wasn't that what Sony said in a PR. To be honest I haven't being paying close attention to Sony PR lately :)

My math is too rusty for me to give a good probablity of this kind of distribution of top titles - given the 2.5:1 sales ratio. But I suspect it is very low. Usually the distribution for such items would be exponential (i.e. difference between #1 and #10 would be much higher than #90 and #100).

Assuming an exponential distribution and that every HD title sold 2.5 times less than BD, I expect atleast 5 out of top 25 titles to be HD.

On weekly volumes we have seen ratios going above 4:1 for the past 3 weeks. That amounts to approaching 200,000 Blu-ray discs to around 50,000 HD DVD.

If that Blu-ray volume is spread over the titles that are in the top 25 then there's nothing wrong with the Nielsen chart. There will be a bias towards the top titles but it makes perfect sense that a hit like Casino Royale will also generate sales on older BD releases. Maybe prior to the March surge there were more HD DVD titles in the top 25 but we may never know.

Nielsen are saying 23 of the top 25 are Blu-ray titles. If you are saying there should be 5 then please tell us what error Nielsen have made in their reporting.

Yes, that is what we calculated for CR. Something like 10 to 15%. Also for a comparison, they sell 3 to 5% of HD DVD players ...



There is another possibility. We only saw a 3rd party report of what Sony says is the Videoscan numbers. I suspect some misreported.

For eg what if Sony said "These are the top ten HiDef DVD titles ..... and here are the other top 15 BD titles".

Then this should be quite easy to correct. Universal can come back and say "aha! here's the real top 25" - I think we could be in for a long wait on that 'correction'. :)

So, depending on how you analyze the data, there is something to think about - not something JB does very often ;)Nice dig :rolleyes: . It's not as if you have any data to back up your claims, since all HD DVD's catalog titles could be at the bottom of the hypothetical entire list, with a bunch of day-and-dates coming in right after the top 25. I just tend not to look at the data with a conspiracy mindset that continually gets challenged by facts.
As far as the 28K for CR, I thought 50K were sold on day 1 out of 100K shipped....wasn't that what Sony said in a PR. To be honest I haven't being paying close attention to Sony PR lately :)Yes, and Sony was using totals. Nielsen and the article both come with a disclaimer that the entire market wasn't captured. Unsubstantiated theories aside, a ~40% of sales recorded by Nielsen means that 50K could easily have been reached.

BTW, has anybody reconciled the "cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units" statement from the article?

As far as the 28K for CR, I thought 50K were sold on day 1 out of 100K shipped....wasn't that what Sony said in a PR. To be honest I haven't being paying close attention to Sony PR lately :)
I don't think Sony ever said 50K were sold through on Day 1. The press release was issued on Mar 27th but the title had been available for several days by then. And what they said on Mar 27th was "of the 100,000 units that were shipped to retailers March 13, more than 50% already have sold through to consumers."

These are more than likely worldwide sales.

Source: Home Media Magazine (http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10441)

I may have missed some things while trying to catch up with this thread, so sorry if this repeats some things.

1. As far as TN vs KK, the version of TN being sold was a different one than the one being given away. KK was the same version. If you could buy the extended version of KK then it would be a similar situation.

2. If we look back in this thread at post #2 I think we can guess that the 3rd best selling HD DVD for 2007 should be Babel or Troy, with Troy selling around 50% of what BB sold. BB was #8 on the whole list at probably under 14k. If Troy was 7k then it seems like it might have made the top 25 with TN at #13 with a little over 10k. Babel looks like it probably sold more on Blu-ray than on HD DVD to me, and the Blu-ray version is #17 overall.

3. Is rdjam trying to avoid addressing his claim of Blu-ray having 15x as many players, where he says he was talking about the US, with numbers or did he address that somewhere?

--Darin

On weekly volumes we have seen ratios going above 4:1 for the past 3 weeks.

I'm not sure why people keep parroting this.

We know that one of those weeks the data is wrong (as confirmed by Grubert from HMM). The third week is for 25th - and the data we have got for top 25 is for 18th.

So, ONLY ONE week out of a dozen has BD outselling HD DVD by 4:1.

Now, what was your point ? ;)

BTW, has anybody reconciled the "cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units" statement from the article?
I've tried, and as posted previously, it's close but not exact.

The Nielsen totals in Sony's press release calculates out to a SI ratio of:

100 BD : 83.96 HD

Our First Alert data shows :

100 BD : 84.07 HD

Unfortunately, we can't reconcile the numbers without tainting them since we don't have the matching adjusted non-First Alert YTD values for BD and HD for that week.

From some basic projections I've done, though, the difference is no more than a few thousand discs for Blu-ray, and perhaps a thousand for HD DVD that are missing from the First Alert data.

Then this should be quite easy to correct. Universal can come back and say "aha! here's the real top 25" - I think we could be in for a long wait on that 'correction'. :)

But only if they want to ... or care to.

I tried to search for other sources of this Sony PR - didn't find any. So, is this a PR or something only DVDFile got out of Sony ?

We all know not to trust the reporting by one site only - we may be arguing forever about something they think is trivial and made a "small mistake" in reporting.

Where are the other news reports ?

When are the numbers for last week released? I though they were usually released on Friday :confused:

Unfortunately, we can't reconcile the numbers without tainting them since we don't have the matching adjusted non-First Alert YTD values for BD and HD for that week.

From some basic projections I've done, though, the difference is no more than a few thousand discs for Blu-ray, and perhaps a thousand for HD DVD that are missing from the First Alert data.

I suggest we stick to the HMM first alert ratios - but change our intial values to get as close to SPHE numbers as possible.

The other part is whatever happened to "Videoscan captures 40%" ? That statement, along with the 1M crossing issued sometime back and these numbers don't reconcile. It is as if videoscan numbers are 90% of the actuals, rather than 40%. The only other possibility is Videoscan actually gives projected numbers (doesn't sound right considering the statement about missing WalMart numbers).

Nice dig :rolleyes: . It's not as if you have any data to back up your claims, since all HD DVD's catalog titles could be at the bottom of the hypothetical entire list, with a bunch of day-and-dates coming in right after the top 25. I just tend not to look at the data with a conspiracy mindset that continually gets challenged by facts.
Yes, and Sony was using totals. Nielsen and the article both come with a disclaimer that the entire market wasn't captured. Unsubstantiated theories aside, a ~40% of sales recorded by Nielsen means that 50K could easily have been reached.

BTW, has anybody reconciled the "cumulative sales of HD-DVD are at 708,600 units, while cumulative sales of Blu-ray are 844,000 units" statement from the article?

let's try the Turbotax approach :)

Line 1. Enter the number of BD disks were sold this year ____________

Line 2. Enter the number of BD titles available ___________________

Line 3. Subtract 23 from Line 2. _________________

Line 4. Enter the number of BD disks sold of the 23 listed_________

Line 5. Subtract Line 4 from Line 1. _________

Line 6. Divide the result in Line 5 with the results in Line 3. This is the avg. sales of all BD disks not on this list ______________



Line 7. Enter the number of HD DVD disks sold this year ______________

Line 8. Enter the number of HD DVD titles available ________________

Line 9. Subtract 2 from Line 8.________________

Line 10. Enter the number of HD DVD disks sold from the 2 listed ___________

Line 11. Subtract Line 10. from Line. 7 __________

Line 12. Divide the result in Line 11 with the result in line 9. This is the avg. sales of all HD DVD disks not on this list ___________

--------------------------------

So we can now compare Line 12 with

Line 12 with Line 6 to see what the avg. sales for the 'other' titles are and we can compare Line 11 and Line 5 to see how many 'other' titles are in play.

At the very least, it will help us understand what is going on 'outside' of the top 25 titles.

You mean, despite the fact that it's already been confirmed by HMM that Amazon is included?
Please link where this was confirmed...

When are the numbers for last week released? I though they were usually released on Friday :confused:

Sometime by the end of today or tomorrow. IIRC, the magazine itself comes out online on Monday.

Please link where this was confirmed...Here's a post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10089779&&#post10089779) from Grubert:The inclusion of amazon sales was confirmed personally by the associate publisher of Home Media Magazine in reply to a question I asked by email.

Richard and Icemage,

This thread is about the discussion comparing sales number of each format - based on Videoscan/Nielsen. For weeks you have clearly made it about the two formats, quite pointedly, so try not to take false umbrage at a related discussion which indicates the numbers may be shifting.

N/V numbers have always been the most "sympathetic" to the BR format in comparisons, so I understand your contention that no other numbers are relevant here, but disagree. Changes in Amazon's numbers have frequently presaged shifts in the V/N numbers - which makes discussion of them in relation to future movements of the V/N numbers perfectly valid.

However, the continuous personal attacks by the two of you is not justified, nor condonable, no matter what you believe the justification to be. This thread is not a club that you can choose who is accepted in the discussion and who to drive off. Icemage, you have a brand new join date of Feb 2007, yet you seem rather at home with taking the discussion personal in the same style as another member who was banned earlier this year.

I hope that you can both keep the discussion civil, even if some of the items discussed are not to your liking.

Richard, at no point have I ignored the BR sale - in fact, I have pointed at it as a direct factor in disguising a drop in BR sales, post-PS3 launch.

I'm not sure why people keep parroting this.

We know that one of those weeks the data is wrong (as confirmed by Grubert from HMM). The third week is for 25th - and the data we have got for top 25 is for 18th.

So, ONLY ONE week out of a dozen has BD outselling HD DVD by 4:1.

Now, what was your point ? ;)

Ok, 2 weeks at 4:1 (that encompass the top 25 chart)

Could you do me a favour and post the corrected Nielsen numbers for

March 11, 2007

My chart shows a 4:1 sales volume ratio to Blu-ray for this week:

The (apparently) faulty data I have is:

YTD BD / HD DVD
100.00 / 47.37

SI BD / HD DVD
100.00 / 89.25

I did check Icemage for the same week and he got:

Date / BD / HD
March 11 / 81.51% / 18.49%

Greater than 4:1 for that week. Mind you, Icemage seems to be using the same faulty data as me. :rolleyes:

Ok, 2 weeks at 4:1 (that encompass the top 25 chart)

Could you do me a favour and post the corrected Nielsen numbers for

March 11, 2007



You need to go back and check the posts around that period. The sudden drop in numbers was confirmed to be "significantly off" by HMM.

Here's a post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10089779&&#post10089779) from Grubert:
Thanks JB, but I can't find the proof.

You have linked a post by Grubert where he says he posted an email from a friend at HMM that says that Amazon is included - he indicates he posted it "a few posts ago" - yet I have gone back several pages from that linked post and can find nothing.

For the record, I recall a post that included a "listing" of all V/N sources being put up several weeks ago, also from an "HMM Source" - and I'm thinking this is the same post by Grubert being referred to.

Yet, that list was universally acknowledged to be wrong and out of date, since some of the sources listed were no longer in business, and some sources were no longer contributing to N/V.

Could you be so kind to link the actual post by Grubert which he is reffering to in the post you previously linked? Thank you.

Thanks JB, but I can't find the proof.Because you have blinders on.
You have linked a post by Grubert where he says he posted an email from a friend at HMM that says that Amazon is included - he indicates he posted it "a few posts ago" - yet I have gone back several pages from that linked post and can find nothing.Wow, your capacity for twisting the truth really knows no bounds. Read the part where he said "associate publisher of Home Media Magazine", not his friend. The people who run the magazine.
Could you be so kind to link the actual post by Grubert which he is reffering to in the post you previously linked? Thank you.Here's the post (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10077926&&#post10077926), as well as a couple (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10070350&&#post10070350) other (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9898690&&#post9898690) posts where Grubert mentions the editor and publisher.

And you know, we're getting tired of your constant efforts to derail, close, and otherwise question the point of a thread you had no real involvement in, and that was doing quite well on both sides. Your ignorance of where the data is coming from is obvious, as is your intent.

jblackow,

Yes, and Sony was using totals. Nielsen and the article both come with a disclaimer that the entire market wasn't captured. Unsubstantiated theories aside, a ~40% of sales recorded by Nielsen means that 50K could easily have been reached.

The thing is that we dont know if the 40% number is correct. It could be higher or lower, who knows. That percentage makes a world of difference. If the Nielsen numbers are essentially correct (e.g., 90% of the market), then both formats are having troubles, and there isnt much difference between the two in the grand scheme of things. If, however, Nielsen only captures 25-40% of the market, BD is doing reasonably well, and HD has some problems.

You need to go back and check the posts around that period. The sudden drop in numbers was confirmed to be "significantly off" by HMM.

That doesn't mean that the ratio (4:1) was off as well, especially as that ratio was repeated in the following two weeks.

Read the part where he said "associate publisher of Home Media Magazine", not his friend. The people who run the magazine.How about something from N/V? The list we saw some time ago didn't include Amazon. All we have is third hand info.

And you know, we're getting tired of your constant efforts to derail, close, and otherwise question the point of a thread you had no real involvement in, and that was doing quite well on both sides. Your ignorance of where the data is coming from is obvious, as is your intent.
I don't think much of your attitude either. You have no exclusive domain on this forum, and the validity of data should be questioned, or maybe this thread should be moved to the BD software area, since you seem to regard questions as attacks on BD.

As far as The Matrix HD DVD is concerned, it is three to four times the price of POC, since it is a full trilogy, yet it still ranks 232 vs. 215 for POC. There is almost no difference in sales volume, yet likely a huge difference in revenue.

You have to laugh, 'sales revenue', how much more spin are HD-DVD fans going to put onto sales figures in order to scew them into looking favourable for HD-DVD!

Lets look at the Departed, still going strong on Blu-ray, even outselling last weeks overall HD No.1 title, Children of Men.

HD-DVD titles appear to have a good week, then plummet.

It's also clear from sales figure that HD-DVD shows better on Amazon than at brick and mortor stores.

Children of Men was out of stock by Friday of the week of it's release on Amazon. Not sure if they are still showing a June delivery date. If yes. that would discourage a few from placing an order. IMO.

Jag,

You have to laugh, 'sales revenue', how much more spin are HD-DVD fans going to put onto sales figures in order to scew them into looking favourable for HD-DVD!

what an odd comment, as the companies want to make money. So, if you want to sell more copies, and make less money, more power to you, but I am not sure that the studios would agree with you.

That doesn't mean that the ratio (4:1) was off as well, especially as that ratio was repeated in the following two weeks.

It means we don't know what happened that week. We can't say the numbers are wrong but somehow the ratio - which are derived from those wrong numbers - are correct.

How about something from N/V? The list we saw some time ago didn't include Amazon. All we have is third hand info.I doubt that the associate publisher and editor-in-chief would by lying or misinformed. Again, the conspiracy theories here
I don't think much of your attitude either. You have no exclusive domain on this forumNor do I claim such.
and the validity of data should be questioned, or maybe this thread should be moved to the BD software area, since you seem to regard questions as attacks on BD.No, I regard blatant ignorance from some one who has made completely erroneous claims about Blu-ray before as deliberate attempts to decry the work of all the investigation of the posters in the thread. A quick check on his posts in this thread back me up on why I responded how I did. And I'm not the only one, as darinp2, Icemage, Grubert and others have called him on his methods before.

Do I believe the validity of the data shouldn't be questioned? No, of course not. But when the line of questioning has no basis in fact, or is unrelated to the thread, then why shouldn't we point that out?

How about something from N/V? The list we saw some time ago didn't include Amazon. All we have is third hand info.

Actually, IIRC, the list included Amazon. And while it may be 3rd hand - I've complete faith that Grubert is reporting what he heard. And I don't have any reason to think HMM would lie to him ...

There are discripancies in various figures we have got - but here we are barking up the wrong tree if we start wondering whether HMM / Grubert is reporting wrong.

Originally Posted by rdjam

As far as The Matrix HD DVD is concerned, it is three to four times the price of POC, since it is a full trilogy, yet it still ranks 232 vs. 215 for POC. There is almost no difference in sales volume, yet likely a huge difference in revenue.
Also, POTC has been available for preorder for how long now? 2 months? Yet it is still keeping up. While I think the Matrix Trilogy on HD DVD will have very solid numbers, it won't even touch either POTC films. I don't think it will come close once on Blu-ray either, and I love the Matrix.

You have to laugh, 'sales revenue', how much more spin are HD-DVD fans going to put onto sales figures in order to scew them into looking favourable for HD-DVD!

Just following Sony's example, I guess :D

According to NPD data, February 2007 showed a 67% increase in retail dollars generated year-over-year for SCEA in the US with total sales of $377 million. With this increase, the PlayStation brand remained the number-one revenue driver for the month in the industry owning 38.5% of total sales.

I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

Wow!

I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

Has everybody passed out from the shock?

Jag,



what an odd comment, as the companies want to make money. So, if you want to sell more copies, and make less money, more power to you, but I am not sure that the studios would agree with you.


So what if the Matrix boxset will generate a few dollars more per set sold, it's a premium boxset, I'm sure we'll see a similar POTC boxset in time, I'm also quite sure POTC will generate more revenue for Disney than the Matrix set will for Warner, short and long term.

Matrix is one title thats dual format, what else is going to sell in big numbers on HD-DVD?

HD-DVD has one big hitter for every dozen on Blu-ray.

And it looks to me the only reason BD has 23 out of top 25 is because of the sale on Amazon. Nice try, Sony! First the 40% off promotion and then publish a report with pathetic sales number to show how you have the 'Absolute' sales advantage over HD.


I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

It's interesting to see which "neutral" titles sell better on Blu-Ray than HD DVD... and vice versa...

~Alan

And it looks to me the only reason BD has 23 out of top 25 is because of the sale on Amazon.Do you have any actual evidence of this claim? Like say relative volume sales from Amazon versus non-Amazon sources?

I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

Here is the link ...

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

and the link to the SPHE report

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/files/sonyhdreport031807.zip

There is so much there to read. It looks like our assumption on ratio for the '07 Initial numbers is right on the mark - 297K BD and 462K for HD - 64%.

BTW, avg sales per title is about equal - 4,485 vs 4,467. Now does anyone want to say why on avg they are not making much money ? :D

I am surprised on one is discussing the Sony/Videoscan report with "real" numbers that you can download from Bill Hunts site, which does confirm some of the numbers from the linked article in this thread.

I am sure the BD fans will spin this as BD stomping, but to me it shows how poorly all the media are selling, when the top sellng BD title (as of March 18) only sold 39K copies.

Thanks for the 'spot' George. I'll read it in some detail later.

Obviously it's a Sony report so a tad biased! However it does seem to be based on actual Nielsen data and has not been extrapolated by Sony (on initial glance at least). For example there is the following disclaimer: "POS Totals are based on All A.C. Nielsen VideoScan reporting channels which excludes some retailers including Wal*Mart" at the bottom of a page of charts.

So, once again, it is hard to nail down the absolute numbers unless someone knows for sure what % Nielsen reports on.

Hopefully we'll get the new Nielsen data soon to add into the mix.

No matter how you try to spin it, these numbers are bad for HD Media in general.How did you reach this conclusion? How high should the numbers be to be "good" for the industry?

How did you reach this conclusion? How high should the numbers be to be "good" for the industry?

So that average titles make some money ?

That doesn't mean that the ratio (4:1) was off as well, especially as that ratio was repeated in the following two weeks.

We have the numbers now.

For 3/11 it was 37,733 vs 17,166 or close to 2:1. :p

Remember this from Disney?

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/disneygraphqj8.gif

Where did they get 279,000 units for BD and 135,000 units for HD DVD??

Did they take Nielsen data and do their own extrapolation?

Looking at Sony's chart there's nowhere near this volume for BD in January - I make it less than 200,000 for the month.

Edit - found the actual number in Sony's report. Jan '07 = 191,386.

Difference with Disney = 87,614 (Disney are 46% higher than the Sony figure)

Remember this from Disney?

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy01/disneygraphqj8.gif

Where did they get 279,000 units for BD and 135,000 units for HD DVD??

Did they take Nielsen data and do their own extrapolation?

Looking at Sony's chart there's nowhere near this volume for BD in January - I make it less than 200,000 for the month.

Edit - found the actual number in Sony's report. Jan '07 = 191,386.

Difference with Disney = 87,614 (Disney are 46% higher than the Sony figure)

They counted the PS3 would be my guess.

Whoah. Real numbers? In this format war? Can it really be?

Time for me to work some more numerical magic!

You mean I found something new? Geez, I never expected that, especially with the time difference here in Hawaii.

I think Sony's absolute numbers are probably pretty accurate. If they weren't they would get called on it and that would be bad for Sony's rep.

OTOH, I think they probably selected a set of dates to make BD look good and HD look bad in terms of percent change in sales and so forth. Someone else can dig around and see if that isnt the case.

Rob

Originally Posted by Rob Zuber
How did you reach this conclusion? How high should the numbers be to be "good" for the industry?

Well, when the average title sells about 4.5K copies that isnt very good, when you consider that there are, what, 1.5 million or so BD players in NA. Like I said, these numbers just show how little HD media are selling.
Enjoy.

Here you go. It's a rough guess still, but if Montado's numbers are even close this should do.

Again, like Nataraj, I am assuming a 64% SI ratio on 1/1/06 (basically walking back from 1/28/07 at around 5-6% SI per week).

Here's the modified numbers to match Montado's close enough for discussion.

http://www.endrop.com/album/photos/qmqrnez0mfndwn2m4hnh.jpg (http://www.endrop.com/viewer.php?file=qmqrnez0mfndwn2m4hnh.jpg)



Looks like indeed Montado's numbers were correct. And we were very close in the calculations. For eg. for Jan/28 numbers these numbers are within 1K of what Sony reports.

Looking at Sony's chart there's nowhere near this volume for BD in January - I make it less than 200,000 for the month.

Edit - found the actual number in Sony's report. Jan '07 = 191,386.

Difference with Disney = 87,614 (Disney are 46% higher than the Sony figure)And the Disney HD DVD figure is also much higher than the Sony one for that month (about 43%). The other months don't match either. The Disney chart does not say the source of data is "POS Totals based on A.C. Nielsen VideoScan" as the Sony report does. Obviously different sources of data.

BTW, I found out what the problem was for 3/11. The SI ratio was correct. But YTD should have been 48.49 instead of 47.37 we got.

Whoah. Real numbers? In this format war? Can it really be?

Time for me to work some more numerical magic!

Well, there is not much to do ... all the numbers (as of 18th March) is given.

Now, the fun part is to figure out what is happening with individual titles - like are catalog selling worse than new ones, on average etc.

And ofcourse things like - how come Fox & Disney numbers on average are worse / no better than Universal's if BD is doing so much better then HD DVD ?!

BTW, does anyone know of a tool to bring in data from pdf to excel ?

BTW, does anyone know of a tool to bring in data from pdf to excel ?

If you can do Word--> Excel then pdf to Excel will work. Export from pdf -->Word-->Excel.

Hey you're from MSFT. You should have it figured :D

Well, there is not much to do ... all the numbers (as of 18th March) is given.

Now, the fun part is to figure out what is happening with individual titles - like are catalog selling worse than new ones, on average etc.

And ofcourse things like - how come Fox & Disney numbers on average are worse / no better than Universal's if BD is doing so much better then HD DVD ?!

BTW, does anyone know of a tool to bring in data from pdf to excel ?

there are tools for editing pdf, but to export data I am afraid you have to write some macro for reading pdf, extracting data etc.... but I could be wrong, I never tested such conversion of data from pdf to excel...

Marek

Hey you're from MSFT. You should have it figured :D

Already tried :D Can't seem to be able to get from pdf to excel.

Well, there is not much to do ... all the numbers (as of 18th March) is given.
Yes, but we can use the real numbers as an indicator of how much error we can expect to see in the future projections (since I doubt we're going to see such a detailed report again for a while).

Now, the fun part is to figure out what is happening with individual titles - like are catalog selling worse than new ones, on average etc.

And ofcourse things like - how come Fox & Disney numbers on average are worse / no better than Universal's if BD is doing so much better then HD DVD ?!
Universal has a lot more titles out than either Fox or Disney.

What's interesting to me is that Warner is turning out to be the most successful high definition studio so far. Universal is holding its own due to having the largest release slate to date, and Sony's doing well due to lots of promotions (*g*), but it's telling to see just how few discs are selling for anything but blockbusters.

BTW, does anyone know of a tool to bring in data from pdf to excel ?
I can't convert it to Excel, but I do have the means to extract the text via Adobe Acrobat. Will this do?

EDIT: If no one else figures it out by this weekend, I'll try and throw some programming muscle at this and script in the data via Excel or Microsoft Access this weekend.

The best way to get the tables out of the PDF is to just print the damn thing and then scan it in doing OCR. ;)

BTW, does anyone know of a tool to bring in data from pdf to excel ?

Yes, its called a keyboard. :D

If you have Adobe Acrobat Professional, you can select, copy and paste like any other application if the PDF was sourced from softcopy.

I use Professional, so I'll offer any assistance I can.

Week Ending April 1:

YTD: BD: 100 HD: 43.16
SI: BD: 100 HD 77.88

Blu-ray:

1. Happy Feet
2. Casino Royale
3. Pursuit of Happyness
4. Rocky Balboa
5. Eragon

HD DVD:

1. Children of Men
2. Happy Feet
3. The Departed
4. Batman Begins
5. Troy

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 n/a 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 n/a 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8

Week Ending April 1:

YTD: BD: 100 HD: 43.16
SI: BD: 100 HD 77.88

Quick calculations show figures of 66,577 and 34,908. So the ratio has fallen to 1.9:1. Not posting the chart since we need to use the newly known correct ratios for other weeks to get better figures.