Yeah, way up. ;)

It went from 4:1 to 1.66:1. That's way up in my books....

Good Shepherd isn't really a well known blockbuster, is it? What was the market returns for Volver v. Good Shepherd?


Good Shepherd $59,901,040
Volver $12,830,604

The Nielsen big report has taught us that, for the most part, only new releases are big sellers. And whereas HD DVD had one day-and-date title (The Good Shepherd, which entered the chart at #1), BD didn't (well, there was Volver, but foreign-language titles don't sell ;) ).

The mere fact that BD without significant new releases outsold HD DVD 1.66:1 is remarkable.

It is difficult to tell how it is working.

In any given week we have

- sales of newly released titles
- lingering sales of titles released the previous week
- sales of older releases

And then we have

- new buys of old owners
- buys of new owners

We need to be able to figure out this matrix and how it affects sale over a few weeks to be able to say very much. For eg. we have in any given week atleast 25K new PS3 owners. Probably 5K new HD DVD owners. How many movies do these guys buy - do they buy only new releases or old releases that they really want to get ?

Unfortunately the one week of data we have (for Mar 18th) is a non-representative week with high value release (CR). In any case, new releases on 13th had sales of 28K, 1.5K, 1.2K and 192. If you remove the big CR number others didn't really contribute much to the total of 65K BD sales that week.

That I don't know. But this much I DO know:

1. HD DVD isn't a dead format and the format war isn't over.

2. HD DVD with a more aggressive release schedule is picking up the momentum

3. To assume that the Matrix is the last hurrah for HD DVD is a naive assumption that many on the BD side are making - just as they bought into the notion that Warner was going to treat both formats equally going forward.

4. HD DVD hardware sales are picking up and there appears to be growing support for third party hardware vendors - not less. This would not have happened IF people thought that HD DVD was on it's way out.

5. I bet IF people thought that HD DVD was going to throw in the towel in Sept. as many BD supporters have opined openly, that CE manufacturers and studios would not be wasting their money on HD DVD.

You don't need a crystal ball, only some commen sense and logic to figure it out ;)

As far as batting 250, are you referring to the BDA that have been predicting the demise of HD DVD? Or the HD DVD folks that have been saying that sales will pick up with lower priced hardware and more releases.

1. No doubt

2. Some momentum, yes. Frankly, I expected more.

3. The Matrix is not the last hurrah. I doubt it will be much more than a "not bad."

4. Agreed.

5. Agreed. HD DVD is not dead. Sorry to have to be the one to say this, my dear friend, but I guess that's what you've been reduced to. However, there's still a chance to see what happens with the Chinese players. If they don't make the difference, THEY could be the last hurrah, at least for all-out victory. Contiguousness remains a possibility.

Good Shepherd $59,901,040
Volver $12,830,604

Perhaps thats what explains the jump from 1:4 to 1:1.6 ratio for HD DVD. Given that there are far fewer HD DVD players compared to BD, it would indicate a much larger % of HD DVD owners bought a disk than BD owner.

So the next goal for the HD DVD folks will be to try and close the hardware gap.

It went from 4:1 to 1.66:1. That's way up in my books....
You ARE aware that the running average was more like 2:1 and that 4:1 was only for a few weeks, right?

Still, glad you're happy bro, but honestly, didn't you expect a little more these last two weeks? I did.

Perhaps thats what explains the jump from 1:4 to 1:1.6 ratio for HD DVD. Given that there are far fewer HD DVD players compared to BD, it would indicate a much larger % of HD DVD owners bought a disk than BD owner.

So the next goal for the HD DVD folks will be to try and close the hardware gap.
Hasn't that been a major goal since January?

It went from 4:1 to 1.66:1. That's way up in my books....

Too bad it was mostly because of Casino Royale that that 4:1 ratio happened...basically, HD-DVD had some good releases the last few weeks and could not even get on par weekly with BD. The approx 2:1 normal ratio stll holds, especially with night at the museum coming up for blu-ray....

Btw, what happened to the 130,000 copies of HD-DVD that was supposed to happen? :p

So the next goal for the HD DVD folks will be to try and close the hardware gap.

As you know plazman, they are doing just that. 4 out of 6 Best Buys in my area are sold out of the HD-A2 at the moment. The HD-A2 is currently #2 in DVD player sales at Amazon, and #93 in all of electronics. With a street price of $300, sales are without doubt on the upswing. The key will be if the trend continues.

1. No doubt

2. Some momentum, yes. Frankly, I expected more.

3. The Matrix is not the last hurrah. I doubt it will be much more than a "not bad."

4. Agreed.

5. Agreed. HD DVD is not dead. Sorry to have to be the one to say this, my dear friend, but I guess that's what you've been reduced to. However, there's still a chance to see what happens with the Chinese players. If they don't make the difference, THEY could be the last hurrah, at least for all-out victory. Contiguousness remains a possibility.

Actually 1.66:1 is pretty good in my books, especially when one considers the efforts that the BDA made during Q1 - BD releases compared to HD DVD, BD PR blitzkrieg, Casino Royale, 2M PS3s on the street and not even considering that NPD claims the number of HD DVD and BD standalone player sales are about even...

We now have HD DVD ramping up their releases, Toshiba reducing prices further (at at least on Amazon we are seeing significant improvements in sales ranks) and other CE vendors likely to introduce HD DVD players. Coupled with increased marketing....

HD DVD FWIW does not need the Chinese Players to survive or even flourish. They have a solid business model that will allow a number of businesses to profit off of their technology. BD for all practical purposes is a one entity show. The only money to be made is while Sony subsidizes replication costs. On the hardware side, it's pretty much game over for the rest.

In the Airline business, once the full service ailines like United and Delta could not drive out discount carriers like Southwest out of business without hurting themselves too much, the airline industry was changed forever. The efficiency advantage that Southwest had grew over time until the majors had to file for bankruptcy. 911 gave them a good excuse to get a govt. bail out, but the fundamental problems were always there. At no point did Southwest carry more passengers than United or have more planes.

When you are less efficient (high cost provider) you have only 2 choices - 1. convince people that your premium price is justified or 2. Eliminate your more efficient competitor by taking losses in the short term until your more efficient competitor does not have operating reserves.

For now option 2 seems to be a losing proposition for BD. So we are left with the BDA fighting out on 1. Something they clearly do not want to do - just as United, Delta, Northwest etc. did not want to do....

Actually, you can use this examaple for almost any industry - auto, banks, mass merchandize etc...

That I don't know. But this much I DO know:

3. To assume that the Matrix is the last hurrah for HD DVD is a naive assumption that many on the BD side are making - just as they bought into the notion that Warner was going to treat both formats equally going forward.



I am curious to know if you can be more specific? What else does HD-DVD have in its arsenal in the way of software exclusives?

Remember this fall BD Java will be mandatory, so Warner's last excuse not to do simulatneous releases will be over, and Blu-ray should get a big rush of catch-up titles from Warner this fall including all three Matrix movies.

Disney still has a LOT of ammo left. Lots of Disney Blockbusters will be new exclusives on Blu-ray.

I just see the content gap growing bigger and bigger, especially after Fox begins releasing again.

BD+ should be up and running in 60 days or so.

Too bad it was mostly because of Casino Royale that that 4:1 ratio happened...basically, HD-DVD had some good releases the last few weeks and could not even get on par weekly with BD. The approx 2:1 normal ratio stll holds, especially with night at the museum coming up for blu-ray....

Btw, what happened to the 130,000 copies of HD-DVD that was supposed to happen? :p

What happened to the 70K weekly with 50% growth sales that Fox predicted for just themselves :p

2:1 is fine as long as the market shows growth. The ratio isn't as important as growth at this stage.

I am curious to know if you can be more specific? What else does HD-DVD have in its arsenal in the way of software exclusives?

Remember this fall BD Java will be mandatory, so Warner's last excuse not to do simulatneous releases will be over, and Blu-ray should get a big rush of catch-up titles from Warner this fall including all three Matrix movies.

Disney still has a LOT of ammo left. Lots of Disney Blockbusters will be new exclusives on Blu-ray.

I just see the content gap growing bigger and bigger, especially after Fox begins releasing again.

BD+ should be up and running in 60 days or so.

Absolutely nothing. HD DVD has no more movies to release for the rest of the year. Everything possible has been released :rolleyes:

In the Airline business, once the full service ailines like United and Delta could not drive out discount carriers like Southwest out of business without hurting themselves too much, the airline industry was changed forever. The efficiency advantage that Southwest had grew over time until the majors had to file for bankruptcy. 911 gave them a good excuse to get a govt. bail out, but the fundamental problems were always there. At no point did Southwest carry more passengers than United or have more planes.

When you are less efficient (high cost provider) you have only 2 choices - 1. convince people that your premium price is justified or 2. Eliminate your more efficient competitor by taking losses in the short term until your more efficient competitor does not have operating reserves.

For now option 2 seems to be a losing proposition for BD. So we are left with the BDA fighting out on 1. Something they clearly do not want to do - just as United, Delta, Northwest etc. did not want to do....

Actually, you can use this examaple for almost any industry - auto, banks, mass merchandize etc...

This post is not backed up by fact. Sony is making A LOT of money.

See this thread: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=833722

Sony has the resources to keep this going as long as is necessary. The longer time passes the less relevant the cost difference will become as Blu-ray will also benfit from production efficiencies.

Absolutely nothing. HD DVD has no more movies to release for the rest of the year. Everything possible has been released :rolleyes:


I was hoping you would humor me by providing a list of big exclusives waiting in the wings for HD-DVD.

What does Universal have left to release?

What happened to the 70K weekly with 50% growth sales that Fox predicted for just themselves :p

2:1 is fine as long as the market shows growth. The ratio isn't as important as growth at this stage.

The only thing that weekly sales show is that without blockbusters catalog titles just will not cut it....so, we'll all be waiting for Spiderman 3 :D

Sony is making money from BD? News to me!

It's not whether Sony can keep going, it's about if they can win the format war before HD DVD achieves viability.

Krinkle, you seem reasonably smart. Macs have around 5% market share and Dell, MSFT etc can't drive them out of business now since they have achieved a state of viability for their platform. % after a point isn't that critical for a format to survive.

FWIW, the last I checked Apple had a higher market cap than Sony, even with most Apple revenue coming from Macs and NOT ipods.

Sony isn't subsidizing the PS3 because they want to. It's because they have to. They are losing billions in their PS3 roll out and 90% of BD players are PS3. Fortunately Sony is more than just the PS3 or BD.

Universal hasn't even touched their best stuff yet. June is when I expect their first big catalog title for the year and then Q3 and Q4. We should get a couple of box sets from Uni and WB and one from Paramount.....

Actually 1.66:1 is pretty good in my books, especially when one considers the efforts that the BDA made during Q1 - BD releases compared to HD DVD, BD PR blitzkrieg, Casino Royale, 2M PS3s on the street and not even considering that NPD claims the number of HD DVD and BD standalone player sales are about even...

We now have HD DVD ramping up their releases, Toshiba reducing prices further (at at least on Amazon we are seeing significant improvements in sales ranks) and other CE vendors likely to introduce HD DVD players. Coupled with increased marketing....

HD DVD FWIW does not need the Chinese Players to survive or even flourish. They have a solid business model that will allow a number of businesses to profit off of their technology. BD for all practical purposes is a one entity show. The only money to be made is while Sony subsidizes replication costs. On the hardware side, it's pretty much game over for the rest.

In the Airline business, once the full service ailines like United and Delta could not drive out discount carriers like Southwest out of business without hurting themselves too much, the airline industry was changed forever. The efficiency advantage that Southwest had grew over time until the majors had to file for bankruptcy. 911 gave them a good excuse to get a govt. bail out, but the fundamental problems were always there. At no point did Southwest carry more passengers than United or have more planes.

When you are less efficient (high cost provider) you have only 2 choices - 1. convince people that your premium price is justified or 2. Eliminate your more efficient competitor by taking losses in the short term until your more efficient competitor does not have operating reserves.

For now option 2 seems to be a losing proposition for BD. So we are left with the BDA fighting out on 1. Something they clearly do not want to do - just as United, Delta, Northwest etc. did not want to do....

Actually, you can use this examaple for almost any industry - auto, banks, mass merchandize etc...
O.K. man. Want to change your "Gentleman's Wager" vote? You sound pretty sure of yourself.

BTW, Blu-ray will not be more expensive forever. Most likely even by Thanksgiving 2008. Your analogies, while true for the companies mentioned, do not, exactly correlate here.

This post is not backed up by fact. Sony is making A LOT of money.

See this thread: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=833722

Sony has the resources to keep this going as long as is necessary. The longer time passes the less relevant the cost difference will become as Blu-ray will also benfit from production efficiencies.
Ditto. Should have read down a bit further before I posted above.

krinkle,

I am curious to know if you can be more specific? What else does HD-DVD have in its arsenal in the way of software exclusives?

Well, Grindhouse for one.

Sony is making money from BD? News to me!

It's not whether Sony can keep going, it's about if they can win the format war before HD DVD achieves viability.

Krinkle, you seem reasonably smart. Macs have around 5% market share and Dell, MSFT etc can't drive them out of business now since they have achieved a state of viability for their platform. % after a point isn't that critical for a format to survive.

FWIW, the last I checked Apple had a higher market cap than Sony, even with most Apple revenue coming from Macs and NOT ipods.

Sony isn't subsidizing the PS3 because they want to. It's because they have to. They are losing billions in their PS3 roll out and 90% of BD players are PS3. Fortunately Sony is more than just the PS3 or BD.

Universal hasn't even touched their best stuff yet. June is when I expect their first big catalog title for the year and then Q3 and Q4. We should get a couple of box sets from Uni and WB and one from Paramount.....

My position is not that HD-DVD will become extinct, vanish off the face of the earth within a year etc.

I think that HD-DVD can survive for several years as a niche format catering to xbox360 diehards and some AV enthusiasts who are for whatever reason attached to the platform.

No. End of this year BD will be outselling HD DVD. Next year about even. Thereafter, HD DVD will start outselling BD. End 200v, HD DVD will be the de factor HD optical media of choice. IMO.

krinkle,



Well, Grindhouse for one.

Actually I personally would like to see this movie sometime. However, I am not sure that it will be a big seller with the general public.

"Hyped 'Grindhouse' Is Ground Up At B.O.; Tarantino/Rodriguez Tank For Weinsteins"

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/grindhouse-didnt-gun-friday-ticket-sales/

Krinkle,

However, I am not sure that it will be a big seller with the general public

Why did I know you were going to say that? ;).

No. End of this year BD will be outselling HD DVD. Next year about even. Thereafter, HD DVD will start outselling BD. End 200v, HD DVD will be the de factor HD optical media of choice. IMO.
Wow! Talk about a long term projection! I just hope either one of them is still going by then.

No. End of this year BD will be outselling HD DVD. Next year about even. Thereafter, HD DVD will start outselling BD. End 200v, HD DVD will be the de factor HD optical media of choice. IMO.

Wow, your crystal ball seems to be a bit cloudy, seriously guys can we keep away from these predictions, it will just make you look stupid. Especially this type of long-term prediction based on one-weeks worth of data.

Eventually, one of the BD exclusive studios are going to ask themselves why are we BD exclusive anyway? When that happens, all bets are off on any chance of BD being the dominate HD optical medium. If I were a stackholder at Disney, which I am not, I would be asking the management why they are ignoring a growing section of the HD market, namely HD-DVD, for BD, and why they should be taking sides to benefit Sony when the HD-DVD platform delivers the same PQ and AQ as BD. Clearly, there are plenty of HD DVD players being sold and they can add up to a viable format really quick. Unless BD can kill off HD-DVD soon, namely no later than the end of 2007, it will have reached viability status at which point any smart movie company will want to release on the format. Should that happen and should Disney flip, that will be the end and the war as it will end in a stalemate. The point alot of posters on this issue seem to be missing is the bottom line on why these new formats were created. It is pretty clear that the major CE companies were no longer making the profilts they wanted from their DVD players which at this point, might as well be given away with the purchase of a DVD. The CE manufacturers looked at HD as a way to increase their bottom lines hence the high price of the G1 players on the BD side. However, on the BD side, the PS3 cut the CE manufacturers off at the knees resulting in low sales. In addition, with the price of the PS3 and the dropping prices of HD-DVD players, the CE BD companies will have to drop the prices of their players alot sooner then they have planned. Rather than continue to be BD exclusive, the reasonable outcome may be for the CE's to come out with dual players like Samsung and LG. All this will cut into BD's market share especially if the HD DVD studios cut the retail prices of their discs down to DVD levels. I anticipate this happeing as the cost of manufacturing an HD-DVD disc seems to me less than that of BD and Sony will not be underwriting BD replication costs forever. I am sorry guys, but I just don't see the roasy scenario those of you on the BD side do. I have a HD-DVD player and would by a BD one also where one available for under $400.00 with analog audio outs and support for all audio codecs. However, none is on the horizon. At least the Samsung dual player supports all audio codecs which is a good start. Perhaps I will get that one provided it has analog outs and I can put the HD-A1 in the bedroom.

I doubt an expensive box set can tilt the balance in a big way.
It can in the total dollar amount spent for a format. :cool:

Unfortunately you've got a big disappointment coming your way soon ;)

Not that BD will not win for the month of May, but that the Matrix Box is the 'great hope'....theres going to be more :D
Yoda: "There is another...."

I was hoping you would humor me by providing a list of big exclusives waiting in the wings for HD-DVD.

What does Universal have left to release?
Are you serious? :eek:

Krinkle, you seem reasonably smart. Macs have around 5% market share and Dell, MSFT etc can't drive them out of business now since they have achieved a state of viability for their platform. % after a point isn't that critical for a format to survive.

1. Microsoft invested in Apple a while back in order to prop it up in order to show they were not a monopoly.

2. Macs are a niche market at best...if it weren't for the iPod (and the mIcrosoft propping up), the nacs would probably have folded awhile back. I've read several books on Apple.

3. HD disc market != PC market

Windows is cheap and everywhere...mac is expensive and much less used.

Can HD-DVD be cheap AND be a niche? I don't think so....the more surviveable option would be expensive and niche.

I don't want to go too much OT here - but - I'd like to know how does BD plan to go grow their sales ? We know HD DVD's plans. What are the plans of BD ? Continued growth of PS3 ownership doesn't seem to have any effect on sales.

Samwise,

He is serious. Remember, for the BD braintrust, the only thing that really matters are day and date and big blockbusters.

But since he doesnt like grindhouse, how about the bourne ultimatum or maybe Hellboy 2.

Wow, your crystal ball seems to be a bit cloudy, seriously guys can we keep away from these predictions, it will just make you look stupid. Especially this type of long-term prediction based on one-weeks worth of data.

That is what analysts do. I'll take my chances with looking stupid since hind-sight is always 20-20. I didn't see you raise objections when BD supporters were making predictions based on a couple of weeks of 4:1 data.

Yoda: "There is another...."
All movies with Yoda in it are distributed by Fox.

That is what analysts do. I'll take my chances with looking stupid since hind-sight is always 20-20. I didn't see you raise objections when BD supporters were making predictions based on a couple of weeks of 4:1 data.

And?

Plaz, I expect it from most of 'em, but you are a bit smarter than that. It is all about expectations, from the BD fanboys, I expect silly predictions and wild accusations, same goes for your HD DVD lot as well, but from you it is different as you have some sort of decent education behind you and you are not thick.

Samwise,

He is serious. Remember, for the BD braintrust, the only thing that really matters are day and date and big blockbusters.

But since he doesnt like grindhouse, how about the bourne ultimatum or maybe Hellboy 2.


I think you might have misread my post. It said clearly that I am personally interested in seeing Grindhouse. So I do like Grindhouse. :) The box office numbers just provide evidence that not many other people liked it very much. Generally speaking there is a positive correlation between box office numbers and home video sales.

Hellboy 2 would be great for HD-DVD, but it is not even in production and has tentative box office release date of August 2008. So maybe 2009 on HD-DVD?

Bourne Ultimatum is currently filming so maybe 2008 for HD-DVD? Will Universal be neutral by then?

One reason recent Blockbusters will generally sell better than catalog titles is that most people already own catalog tiles on DVD. (among other reasons) Before you say this is not true I would ask you to look at the best selling Hi-def discs, the facts support this conclusion.

In 2006 Blu-ray studios had, by far, many more of the recent blockbuster movies.

All movies with Yoda in it are distributed by Fox.

LOL :p

Krinkle,

Generally speaking there is a positive correlation between box office numbers and home video sales.

While this is true, I think it is less true for HDM. Grindhouse is the type of film that HDM types would love and I think it will do "well" on HD DVD. It might not do that great on SD DVD, but I think it will do well for HDM standards.

I thought the Bourne Ultimatum was going to be released this summer?

I thought the Bourne Ultimatum was going to be released this summer?

Yup, first week of August, but he was probably talking about the HD DVD release.

I must say I feel vindicated. I battled on the new release vs. catalog subject for so long that I finally had to post a poll about it. It brought a lot of people to the table to go on record. 2:1 were in favor of new releases. Looks like we were right.


I think there were plenty of HD DVD fans that expected a little more these last two weeks, but owning up to that is another matter. Looks like wnorris almost did. I'm pleasantly surprised.

I just expected the CC sale to have a bigger impact. I guess a few possibilities exist:

a. My local store was an extreme, and overall CC sold very few A2's
b. The CC rep didn't know what they were talking about when they said 30-40 players (I admit, misinformed CC sales reps are a high probability)
c. Nielsen somehow filtered CC's data, since they knew CC was supposed to be giving the discs away
d. Stores aren't required to file data weekly with Nielsen, and CC files monthly, which would mean a huge correction somewhere in the next few weeks
e. CC doesn't report First Alert, only regular
f. Some flaw exists in HMM's reporting of Nielsen data
g. My store was incorrectly counting the discs as sales, and everywhere else the free discs showed free on the receipts

Any of these could explain why there was no huge spike that I was expecting from the CC sale. A couple of them would mean a HUGE correction in the near future if CC did sell as many A2's as I thought.

I just expected the CC sale to have a bigger impact. I guess a few possibilities exist:

a. My local store was an extreme, and overall CC sold very few A2's
b. The CC rep didn't know what they were talking about when they said 30-40 players (I admit, misinformed CC sales reps are a high probability)
c. Nielsen somehow filtered CC's data, since they knew CC was supposed to be giving the discs away
d. Stores aren't required to file data weekly with Nielsen, and CC files monthly, which would mean a huge correction somewhere in the next few weeks
e. CC doesn't report First Alert, only regular
f. Some flaw exists in HMM's reporting of Nielsen data
g. My store was incorrectly counting the discs as sales, and everywhere else the free discs showed free on the receipts

Any of these could explain why there was no huge spike that I was expecting from the CC sale. A couple of them would mean a HUGE correction in the near future if CC did sell as many A2's as I thought.
One or two of these are viable. I guess we'll just have to continue to wait and see.

And?

Plaz, I expect it from most of 'em, but you are a bit smarter than that. It is all about expectations, from the BD fanboys, I expect silly predictions and wild accusations, same goes for your HD DVD lot as well, but from you it is different as you have some sort of decent education behind you and you are not thick.

'thick' :D

FWIW, I see you're from the UK. I myself got a 'proper' English 'Public School' education :)

As far as predicting the format war, I believe that HD DVD has the cost advantage in the long term and that will be key since performance wise we will end up with both formats looking and sounding the same. Why?

1. HD DVD technology is less complex and hence components should always be cheaper and easier to manufacture in mass.

2. HD DVD allows DVD lines to be switched to HD DVD production and vice versa. This is a critical advantage IMO, since it allows disk replicators to optimize their production for BOTH DVD and HD DVD. For mass market this is a huge advantage. Right now, BD and HD DVD are being made in dedicated new plants, therefore this cost advantage is not a factor. But it will be once HD optics reach a level of critical mass where they start replacing DVD sales for consumers.

3. As long as HD DVD is the lower cost technology and studios can price HD DVD at the same price as BD, the margin for HD DVD sales will be higher. Higher margin means that it offers price flexibility - so the more units I can sell at higher margin the more units I can discount without using money. So, you are more likely to see HD DVD in the $5 bin than BD. Again, this will happen only when both technologies move into mainstream markets.

I could go on....

What is more important, is that economies of scale require the market to reach a certain size. BD can end the war before those economies are reached for HD DVD. I believe it will take another 12 months or so for HD DVD to start showing real cost advantages v. BD and until then BD will have the lead. Could I be wrong? sure. But at least it is based on my trying to analyze the economics of the two formats. Sure political advantage can overcome economic advantage....but we'll see.

e. CC doesn't report First Alert, only regular


Don't know about CC specifically - but it looks like mainly FA doesn't have grocery and drug store data.

I must say I feel vindicated. I battled on the new release vs. catalog subject for so long that I finally had to post a poll about it. It brought a lot of people to the table to go on record. 2:1 were in favor of new releases. Looks like we were right.

What poll was it. And what exactly do you feel vindicated about ?

'thick' :D

FWIW, I see you're from the UK. I myself got a 'proper' English 'Public School' education :)

Ahhh, Public School boy, I myself am from a Grammar School, no comp for me!

As far as predicting the format war, I believe that HD DVD has the cost advantage in the long term and that will be key since performance wise we will end up with both formats looking and sounding the same. Why?

1. HD DVD technology is less complex and hence components should always be cheaper and easier to manufacture in mass.

2. HD DVD allows DVD lines to be switched to HD DVD production and vice versa. This is a critical advantage IMO, since it allows disk replicators to optimize their production for BOTH DVD and HD DVD. For mass market this is a huge advantage. Right now, BD and HD DVD are being made in dedicated new plants, therefore this cost advantage is not a factor. But it will be once HD optics reach a level of critical mass where they start replacing DVD sales for consumers.

3. As long as HD DVD is the lower cost technology and studios can price HD DVD at the same price as BD, the margin for HD DVD sales will be higher. Higher margin means that it offers price flexibility - so the more units I can sell at higher margin the more units I can discount without using money. So, you are more likely to see HD DVD in the $5 bin than BD. Again, this will happen only when both technologies move into mainstream markets.

I could go on....

What is more important, is that economies of scale require the market to reach a certain size. BD can end the war before those economies are reached for HD DVD. I believe it will take another 12 months or so for HD DVD to start showing real cost advantages v. BD and until then BD will have the lead. Could I be wrong? sure. But at least it is based on my trying to analyze the economics of the two formats. Sure political advantage can overcome economic advantage....but we'll see.

I don't know what you are basing all of this on, yes BD may be slightly more complex at the moment, but it won't be that way forever, realistically it will take another 12 months for BD to really ramp up in terms of production and yields to increase to reasonable (80%) levels. HD DVD has got 12 months to make its price advantage show, if it can't then it is all over.

I don't want to go too much OT here - but - I'd like to know how does BD plan to go grow their sales ? We know HD DVD's plans. What are the plans of BD ? Continued growth of PS3 ownership doesn't seem to have any effect on sales.

The PS3 got them where they're at (2:1-4:1 disc sales). Blu-ray opticals have to be getting cheaper and given that upcoming 2nd gen BD players from Sony and Samsung are significantly cheaper than the 1st gen, I expect that to continue for the other CE's. They'll probably always be a generation behind HDDVD/Toshiba dedicated players and dual format players a step behind them (in the ~$1000 range for the first batch, then transitioning in the 600-700 range, etc).

On the content side, releasing some of their blockbusters (Pirates movies are already scheduled and will most likely be followed by the Spiderman movies from Sony and probably the other X-men and maybe Aliens movies from Fox). In the meantime, they will probably go day / date with their current blockbusters (which is to their advantage especially for this year and recent years and doens't look to change in the near future).

In the meantime, the PS3 base will continue to grow...

What's HDDVD's plan? Toshiba to get to $200. Shinco, Lite On, etc to undercut that. Dual format (LG/Samsung) in the elite (~$1k) pricing range? Maybe they're working on Spielberg to release his Universal hits...

HD DVD has got 12 months to make its price advantage show, if it can't then it is all over.

Why ? Just because BD is selling some 35K movies a week ? Let me know when they hit 350K a week.

With the current way they are going both formats can and will remain niche - just like SACD/DVD-A. And I see no move on the part of BD to come out of the niche status anytime soon ...

He is serious. Remember, for the BD braintrust, the only thing that really matters are day and date and big blockbusters.


HD DVD titles that have sold over 10,000 copies since inception to March 18:

Departed - 38,993
Batman Begins - 34,313
Superman Returns - 28,440
Mission Impossible 3 - 17,537
Serenity - 17,755
Goodfellas - 17,504
Troy - 16,229
Last Samurai - 15,799
Apollo 13 - 14,316
Bourne Supremacy - 12,965
V for Vendetta - 12,800
Polar Express - 12,184
Miami Vice - 11,355
Training Day - 10,714
Phantom of the Opera - 10,518
Fearless - 10,004

What poll was it. And what exactly do you feel vindicated about ?
Thanks for your concern, nataraj. "I cannot help... but be touched."

This (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=795137) poll.

Before I posted this, there was a thunderous drumbeat of the importance of catalog titles OVER new releases. It was a bit baffling to me that there was even a debate. To me it was like saying that Blu-ray is less expensive than HD DVD. It's just one of those things you have to give to the opposing argument. After the poll, the drumbeat seemed to quiet by more than a fair amount. I'm betting you wish to rekindle that, eh?

In the meantime, the PS3 base will continue to grow...

But that seems to have almost no effect on movie sales. Why is there no steady growth ?

What's HDDVD's plan? Toshiba to get to $200. Shinco, Lite On, etc to undercut that. Dual format (LG/Samsung) in the elite pricing range? Maybe they're working on Spielberg to release his Universal hits...

Right. We don't know whether that will work or not - we will have to wait and see.

As to BD CE players - they are still more expensive than Tosh's initial price. By the time they get to the mainstream price level the train may have left the station - like it happened with DVD-A/SACD. By the time the player prices got to mainstream levels nobody was interested.

Thanks for your concern, nataraj. "I cannot help... but be touched."

This (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=795137) poll.

Thanks. Don't remember seeing that.

Before I posted this, there was a thunderous drumbeat of the importance of catalog titles OVER new releases. It was a bit baffling to me that there was even a debate. To me it was like saying that Blu-ray is less expensive than HD DVD. It's just one of those things you have to give to the opposing argument. After the poll, the drumbeat seemed to quiet by more than a fair amount. I'm betting you wish to rekindle that, eh?

Actually I don't remember the debate at all. Personally since I never watch a movie more than once - I'm just looking for movies I've not seen. Really doesn't matter whether it is catalog or new release. As to the market - a few pages back I was arguing that catalogs will not sell on HiDef DVD (i.e. people won't re-buy).

BTW, weren't you talking about something totally different ? You are talking about what will sell consoles ...

Which do you believe sells more consoles?

Now we are talking about what will drive sales of movies - and more importantly by how much.

HD DVD titles that have sold over 10,000 copies since inception to March 18:

Departed - 38,993
Batman Begins - 34,313
Superman Returns - 28,440
Mission Impossible 3 - 17,537
Serenity - 17,755
Goodfellas - 17,504
Troy - 16,229
Last Samurai - 15,799
Apollo 13 - 14,316
Bourne Supremacy - 12,965
V for Vendetta - 12,800
Polar Express - 12,184
Miami Vice - 11,355
Training Day - 10,714
Phantom of the Opera - 10,518
Fearless - 10,004
There you go with your facts again, G.

Why can't you just argue with assumptions and opinion like the rest of us? ;)

Well whether or not it was intended, thanks for backing me up. :)

Hopefully this will settle it, but I have my doubts.

Generally speaking there is a positive correlation between box office numbers and home video sales.

One would assume so - but see this chart I posted sometime back.

http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/4558/top25bouh7.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I don't want to go too much OT here - but - I'd like to know how does BD plan to go grow their sales ? We know HD DVD's plans. What are the plans of BD ? Continued growth of PS3 ownership doesn't seem to have any effect on sales.

That's something i've stated before and whole heartedly agree with.. there seems to be little growth coming from standalones on the BD side. It seems the only real strategy BD has is selling PS3's and encouraging owners to buy software, which at this point is looking a difficult job judging by the PS3 ownershio/disk sales ratio. There seems to be little movement from the major CE's and i wonder how long they'll wait. General consumer-wise, their options are to hold out for a massive BD surge which will entice a satisfactory percentage of owners to 'upgrade' to a standalone or drop their prices and severely decrease profit margins this early in the game, and i'm not sure they'd have the incentive to do that any time soon. Maybe LG and Samsung will be just the first to dive into the universal player market.

but yeah.. it's probably off-topic :)

But that seems to have almost no effect on movie sales. Why is there no steady growth ?






Actually it would seem to me that HD-DVD is the format that has been lagging in sales growth.

http://www.movieweb.com/dvd/news/84/18684.php

Since the November launch of Playstation 3, sales of Blu-ray titles have risen exponentially - a more than 700 percent increase. "As a point of comparison, the first DVD title to ship 100,000 units took approximately 11 months (Air Force One, in February 1998)," said Mr. Bishop. "Casino Royale on Blu-ray has done it in far less time and is clearly demonstrating the format's robust growth in the marketplace."

But that seems to have almost no effect on movie sales. Why is there no steady growth ?


Steady 2:1 sales is nothing to sneer at, and i'll bet the average edges towards 3:1. 4:1 and higher will be limited to big releases, though (IIRC peak for Casino Royale was ~4.5:1) and I imagine we'll see similar spikes for Pirates and Spidey.

The key is that the Blu-ray exclusives can keep piling on hits while Universal is running out of similar ammo, though Warner (particularly if they continue to favor HDDVD) can help offset, but won't eliminate since they'll mostly release the same titles maybe slightly dumbed down for Blu-ray (where I expect 5:3 or 5:4 sales). Day & date blockbuster releases will still favor Blu-ray, though, which is really where it's at (as opposed to catalog stuff): IOW Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 will be bigger for Blu-ray than 1/2, particularly if they're sold individually than as sets.



As to BD CE players - they are still more expensive than Tosh's initial price. By the time they get to the mainstream price level the train may have left the station - like it happened with DVD-A/SACD. By the time the player prices got to mainstream levels nobody was interested.

I do expect the Sony and Samsung players to MSRP higher than the Tosh but to be quite competitive in street prices. ~400-500 for the Sony and 300-400 for the Sammy, for example. Guess we'll have to wait and see...

Thanks. Don't remember seeing that.



Actually I don't remember the debate at all. Personally since I never watch a movie more than once - I'm just looking for movies I've not seen. Really doesn't matter whether it is catalog or new release. As to the market - a few pages back I was arguing that catalogs will not sell on HiDef DVD (i.e. people won't re-buy).

BTW, weren't you talking about something totally different ? You are talking about what will sell consoles ...



Now we are talking about what will drive sales of movies - and more importantly by how much.
1. I'm sure you were not part of that debate. Some of those zealots seemed to have dropped off the face of the Earth. Many have yielded, but some remain.

2. I'm with you. I rarely watch a film more than once. Of course it is not we, personally that drive the HD market.

3. I hope you don't think I was pointing fingers at you. I certainly wasn't. Like I said, it was just a general vindication.

4. As far as the specifics of the two conversations go, I think it is more than fair to link them. "Totally different" is quite a stretch, IMO. Someone as intelligent as you is certainly gifted with the ability of extrapolation via my interpolation, no?

The real point is, new HD releases sell better than catalogs. Much of that has to do with double dipping. There are several reasons. All other things being equal, if one format has more new releases, there is a good chance they will sell more discs AND consoles, don't you think? Of course all things are not equal. HD DVD still has the price advantage and some other, less tangibles so the battle rages on.

Actually it would seem to me that HD-DVD is the format that has been lagging in sales growth.

You seem new to the thread. Look at the numbers we have been analysing here and show me the growth. Thanks.

UxiSXRD,

Steady 2:1 sales is nothing to sneer at

No, nothing to snear at, but here is the thing. Many of the BD supporters have said that the war is over - BD is stomping, destroying, maiming (you choose the adjective) HD DVD.

So, within that context STEADY 2:1 is not indicative of "war over" or "stomping" etc. There is not a consistent growth of the ratio. You see the ratio flucuate with a "big" release but then it goes back down. So, in that sense, there is no "growth" and this is something of a problem for BD.

One would assume so - but see this chart I posted sometime back.

http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/4558/top25bouh7.gif (http://imageshack.us)


Why do insist on mixing catalog titles with day and date releases? We both know the difference in sales is day and night between the two.

Steady 2:1 sales is nothing to sneer at ...

You are looging at the wrong matric. I'm looking raw sales .... where's the growth ? For long term viability we should start seeing 5 to 10 times the numbers we see now.

Why do insist on mixing catalog titles with day and date releases? We both know the difference in sales is day and night between the two.

You give me the list of day & date and I'll seperate them out ;)

I'm just trying to tell you huge blockbusters don't neccessarily sell ...

So, within that context STEADY 2:1 is not indicative of "war over" or "stomping" etc. There is not a consistent growth of the ratio. You see the ratio flucuate with a "big" release but then it goes back down. So, in that sense, there is no "growth" and this is something of a problem for BD.
Hardly. If 2:1 lasts all this year, i.e. no growth, that would NOT be a problem for BD. Dude, pass the Wowie. ;)

4. As far as the specifics of the two conversations go, I think it is more than fair to link them. "Totally different" is quite a stretch, IMO. Someone as intelligent as you is certainly gifted with the ability of extrapolation via my interpolation, no?

Probably we are missing each other's context.

I'm trying to figure out how much do new releases affect sales. The 2:1 you quoted isn't useful in that regard.

All other things being equal, if one format has more new releases, there is a good chance they will sell more discs AND consoles, don't you think? Of course all things are not equal. HD DVD still has the price advantage and some other, less tangibles so the battle rages on.

Do you mean by consoles both game consoles and CE players ? That is the source of some confusion for me.

In general specific titles don't sell CE players (unlike consoles).

You are looging at the wrong matric. I'm looking raw sales .... where's the growth ? For long term viability we should start seeing 5 to 10 times the numbers we see now.

I do expect it to grow... just on a slower scale. Say by the end of summer 2007, steady 3:1. By Spring 2007, 4:1, etc. I'm reminded that only 2 or 3 months ago, it was near 1:1 parity. Blu-ray just very recently passed the what... 4 month lead HDDVD had in total sales.

FWIW, I expect total sales to be roughly 2:1 by the end of the year, as well.

I don't believe anyone has realistically expected a Blu-ray slam dunk since launch. The PS3 strategy has turned the whole situation in their favor, though maybe slower than the hype & marketing goons would have had us believe.

You give me the list of day & date and I'll seperate them out ;)

I'm just trying to tell you huge blockbusters don't neccessarily sell ...
Yes, but the day & date blockbusters often do. Sy is correct. Your chart has a flaw. If you want to use it to make your point, then it's not right for you to ask someone else to fix it for you; that is, if you want your point to be taken seriously.

I do expect it to grow... just on a slower scale. Say by the end of summer 2007, steady 3:1. By Spring 2007, 4:1, etc. I'm reminded that only 2 or 3 months ago, it was near 1:1 parity. Blu-ray just very recently passed the what... 4 month lead HDDVD had in total sales.

I don't understand why you are looking at ratios.

Look at the raw numbers. Total # of titles sold per week. When is that hitting - say 300K ? For it to be hitting 300K per week in even '09, shouldn't the numbers be showing some growth trend now ?

You seem new to the thread. Look at the numbers we have been analysing here and show me the growth. Thanks.

Ok sure.

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/594/nielsenapr1chartai8.jpg (http://img253.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nielsenapr1chartai8.jpg)

Other than a one week anomaly Blu-ray has shown growth of approximately 35-40% in the time period covered in the chart.

Or how about this chart, which much more clearly shows the longer term trend since inception. Amazon.com average sales rank since inception:

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/4580/salesrank11allpd4.jpg (http://img259.imageshack.us/my.php?image=salesrank11allpd4.jpg)

Clearly, the general trend in Blu-ray sales in undeniable. HD-DVD is the format that is showing flat sales. :p

Yes, but the day & date blockbusters often do. Sy is correct. Your chart has a flaw. If you want to use it to make your point, then it's not right for you to ask someone else to fix it for you; that is, if you want your point to be taken seriously.

Well it is the Sony report then that has a flaw ;) This is directly from their report.

It seems to me someone else was trying to prove a point to start with, not me.

I don't want to go too much OT here - but - I'd like to know how does BD plan to go grow their sales ? We know HD DVD's plans. What are the plans of BD ? Continued growth of PS3 ownership doesn't seem to have any effect on sales.


hmmmm...

1. cheaper players
2. continued release of recent blockbusters, of which BD has a big advantage over HD-DVD, and which seems to be the only thing that pushes buys up significantly
3. price cut for PS3

UxiSRXD,

I don't believe anyone has realistically expected a Blu-ray slam dunk since launch

Asj, beatboy, bob meridian, krinkle, plasmalover, to name but a few of the more vocal BD supporters.

Ok sure.


Look at Apr 8. It is back to 35K.

http://img482.imageshack.us/img482/9489/nielsenanalysisok3.gif (http://imageshack.us)

You are looging at the wrong matric. I'm looking raw sales .... where's the growth ? For long term viability we should start seeing 5 to 10 times the numbers we see now.

I actually agree with you, although looking at longer time periods (over several months going into last year), Blu-ray has shown pretty robust growth....the question now is whether it can sustain it....

You guys seem to be stuck on looking at 2-3 months only, when you should be looking over longer periods....the release slate for Hd discs seems pretty bare still compared to Sd-DVD...for example, blu-ray seems to be in a slow period right now...

btw, all these numbers being bandied about are CALCULATED numbers, so they may deviate from actual sales...i tnoiced for example a tendency for the numbers to go up and down in tandem, perhaps some systemic error in the reporting?

So ratios of:

YTD 100:44.09
SI 100:77.30


I'll have to admit that I'm a bit disappointed. Something seems screwy with this. Sales of both formats went down considerably this week. The 2nd worst week for BD all year? Many say the week of 3/11 is in error, so would 4/8 be in error as well?

Ice's chart comes up with 771,787 HD DVD sales, but Toshiba claims over 900k, based on Nielsen data. This still leaves a 130k+ difference.

This would also mean that the CC sale had almost zero effect (assuming CC reports to Nielsen). Even if each store only sold two A2's, that should have been 5k disc sales logged. This in no way corresponds to what I saw at my local CC.

Several things just don't seem right...
The discs that went out the door at CC will most likely be estimated and taken off of the number because it was a special event. The way Sony did it in Jan and Feb is a better way to do it, and it shows.

Well it is the Sony report then that has a flaw ;) This is directly from their report.

It seems to me someone else was trying to prove a point to start with, not me.
Sorry nataraj. I didn't mean to pick on you. My bad (I never liked that phrase.)

Sy did make an important distinction in that chart. So you actually made krinkle's point for him.

Look at Apr 8. It is back to 35K.

http://img482.imageshack.us/img482/9489/nielsenanalysisok3.gif (http://imageshack.us)


The numbers are obviously somewhat dependent on new releases. Weekly fluctuations obscure a larger pattern however.

The weekly data in these Nielsen charts does not cover a long enough period of time to clearly see the overall trend, that is part of the reason I included the chart from Amazon.com.

If one were to plot a simple linear regression line between the data points "Blu-ray weekly sales" and "week number" with the number 1 being assigned to the first week we have data, a clear upward sloping line would result.

The trend would be even more clear if we were to assign week one to the first week in July 2006. Unfortunately we do not have weekly Nilesen numbers from that time period, but the general trend is still visible in the Amazon data.

Krinkle, you do realize that is a ranking trend and not a sales trend. Does not show flat sales at all. Or do you want a longer explanation of why a rank of avg. top ten titles trend is not the same as a sales trend?

The numbers are obviously somewhat dependent on new releases. Weekly fluctuations obscure a larger pattern however.

The weekly data in these Nielsen charts does not cover a long enough period of time to clearly see the overall trend, that is part of the reason I included the chart from Amazon.com.

If one were to plot a simple linear regression line between the data points "Blu-ray weekly sales" and "week number" with the number 1 being assigned to the first week we have data, a clear upward sloping line would result.

The trend would be even more clear if we were to assign week one to the first week in July 2006. Unfortunately we do not have weekly Nilesen numbers from that time period, but the general trend is still visible in the Amazon data.
You can just visualize it. If you start with, roughly 45K, you have 3 good peaks, 1 plateau and just 2 weeks where it dips below 45 and not by much. The line would certainly climb to the right. Like it or not guys, that's growth. Now to look at the HD DVD graph...

Krinkle, you do realize that is a ranking trend and not a sales trend. Does not show flat sales at all. Or do you want a longer explanation of why a rank of avg. top ten titles trend is not the same as a sales trend?


This topic (interpretation of Amazon sales rank) has been beaten to death on this forum. I am merely using the data to illustrate a general trend, not to make any kind of specific determination of actual sales.

Krinkle,

If one were to plot a simple linear regression line between the data points "Blu-ray weekly sales" and "week number" with the number 1 being assigned to the first week we have data, a clear upward sloping line would result.

If you look at that figure, and fit a straight line, the slope is essentially 0. Furthermore, I am willing to bet that if you did a correlation, that it would be low, the r2 (variance accounted for) would be small, and that it would not be significant.

If you go back to "since inception" which is what you are suggesting, what you would probably find is a negatively accelerated curve (a hyperbola), indicating that as of January 7 of so, a asymptote (plateau) had been obtained. In other words, BD sales are in a stable, non-growth period.

indicating that as of January 7 of so, a asymptote (plateau) had been obtained. In other words, BD sales are in a stable, non-growth period.
I'll take that bet. I'm saying there IS growth since 1/7/07. The line rises to the right; maybe not sharply, but noticeably.

Now who wants to plot it?

This (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=795137) poll.

Before I posted this, there was a thunderous drumbeat of the importance of catalog titles OVER new releases. It was a bit baffling to me that there was even a debate.
Ahhh, the trouble with generalisations is that they tend to leave out little details.

Details like The Matrix and Lord of the Rings are catalog titles. Introduce those to the poll next time and see what sort of results you get :)

I'll take that bet. I'm saying there IS growth since 1/7/07. The line rises to the right; maybe not sharply, but noticeably.

Now who wants to plot it?

I agree, and I bet that the week when pirates 22may will be released we will see first week with over 100.000 units sold for blu-ray :)

Marek

You ARE aware that the running average was more like 2:1 and that 4:1 was only for a few weeks, right?

Still, glad you're happy bro, but honestly, didn't you expect a little more these last two weeks? I did.
Err - actually - two weeks... During a 50% Bluray sale, at that... :)

BTW - you won't see those days again :p

EDITED to two weeks

I agree, and I bet that the week when pirates 22may will be released we will see first week with over 100.000 units sold for blu-ray :)

Marek

I agree as well. I think george is wrong and the slope will not be zero.

I hope Talk comes back and tells us how correct Fox was in their predictions - now !

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/8819/bdhdza4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Ahhh - JUST as I predicted.

Bluray is on it's way down to a 1:1 sales ratio with HD DVD.

What a lovely picture... ahhh... :p

Ahhh, the trouble with generalisations is that they tend to leave out little details.

Details like The Matrix and Lord of the Rings are catalog titles. Introduce those to the poll next time and see what sort of results you get :)
They were never excluded, nor are they enough to make up for the strength of new release sales. Of course they are not out yet so they can't do much good until they are, can they.

Err - actually - two weeks... During a 50% Bluray sale, at that... :)

BTW - you won't see those days again :p
1. Agreed

2. I wouldn't bet on it if I were you.

Ahhh - JUST as I predicted.

Bluray is on it's way down to a 1:1 sales ratio with HD DVD.No offense but predicting that Blu-ray sales would go down isn't much of a prediction since sales for both HD formats will vary over time. A far more interesting prediction would be when/if HD DVD will equal or beat Blu-ray in weekly sales ratio. Care to give a guess?

If one were to plot a simple linear regression line between the data points "Blu-ray weekly sales" and "week number" with the number 1 being assigned to the first week we have data, a clear upward sloping line would result.

When you start from ZERO and plot obviously you will see some growth.

But what you need to see is a growth independant of new releases ... which shows new people are all the time getting into the format. To me big pushes during new releases and precipetous drop in other weeks - shows that growth in real users / owners is anaemic. It is the same set of people buying titles - that is why you see such a big fluctuation in numbers based on new releases.

Well it would be more impressive if we had data going back to July. But in this very short time period, Jan28 - April 8, there is still a slightly upwardly sloping line produced.

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3460/chartds6.jpg (http://img19.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chartds6.jpg)

Again this is basically for just 9 weeks, so I'll update this graph and make it prettier as we go along.

Over a more relevant time period the trend will be more noticeable.

No offense but predicting that Blu-ray sales would go down isn't much of a prediction since sales for both HD formats will vary over time. A far more interesting prediction would be when/if HD DVD will equal or beat Blu-ray in weekly sales ratio. Care to give a guess?

Very very true. The spike with Casino Royale / Amazon sale was very impressive and could only go down from there until we get more hits of comparable box office caliber. You can look for blockbuster releases to be staggered to supply these large peaks. Naturally, this will create some troughs in between, but then that's sales/marketing 101....

Well it would be more impressive if we had data going back to July. But in this very short time period, Jan28 - April 8, there is still a slightly upwardly sloping line produced.

Beautiful graph ;)

This clearly shows that growth is so low that it could have easily been caused by big releases towards the end of March (CR for eg). If CR release was in Jan instead of Mar, your line would be showing -ve growth.

For eg. if you were to use a 2nd order polynomial instead of linear, you get this.

http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/8784/nielsenanalysisfp4.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I'm sure the Pirates and Spidey movies will be staggered so as to keep the total slope positive well into winter 2007. At which point, Spidey 3 will be coming... ;)

Then this is where Talk's thread/sig about the # of BDA exclusive blockbusters versus those of Universal/WB comes into play...

Well, ok how about HD-DVD? It produces a clearly DOWNWARD sloping line :eek:

ouch!

The trend here is much more defined.

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/5779/hdchartyo5.jpg (http://img19.imageshack.us/my.php?image=hdchartyo5.jpg)

Naturally, this will create some troughs in between, but then that's sales/marketing 101....

Sorry, my marketing 101 didn't cover that ;)

The variations are expected. But not 50% drops.

Anyway, it seems to me the base "minimum" to expect in BD is about 25-30K. New releases could take that up. It is that base that needs to show growth - that is when you know the ownership is expanding.

As you can see both the formats don't show that in the data we have.

Well, ok how about HD-DVD? It produces a clearly DOWNWARD sloping line :eek:


Obviously, if you purposefully exclude new data that gives higher numbers.

As they say there are statistics and lies. And sometime people substitute one for the other :p

Krinkle,

The graph for BD shows a 0 correlation. If you did the regression, then you will have gotten an r and an r2, what are those values. I am also willing to bet that the the correlation is not significant. Hence, there is no slope, just noise.

As to the HD DVD graph. There is a trend but I doubt it is significant. Again, supply the the r and r2 and we will evaluate.

Obviously, if you purposefully exclude new data that gives higher numbers.

As they say there are statistics and lies. And sometime people substitute one for the other :p


Actually I used the same data points, over the same period of time, with the same source (the numbers posted here) for both HD-DVD and Blu-ray. (9 data points total)

So I am not sure why you say this. :confused:

But reagrdless I'm out for the night, so see everyone later. :)

How's this one?
.

sketcha,

A regression analysis performed by Excel was not significant. The r = .23 and the r2 is thus .04, indicating that the linear regression accounts for roughly 4% of the data.

Hence, the line is statistically flat. In other words, not significantly different from 0.

QED - no growth since the beginning of the year.

How's this one?
.

I've already explained above why linear regression is not useful in our case. And george clearly shows that it is not significant.

sketcha,

A regression analysis performed by Excel was not significant. The r = .23 and the r2 is thus .04, indicating that the linear regression accounts for roughly 4% of the data.

Hence, the line is statistically flat. In other words, not significantly different from 0.

QED - no growth since the beginning of the year.
Hey man; don't crap on my graph.

For the record, I got an r of .32 so an r2 of .10 or 10%.

One kind of cheesy way to do it is to just get an average.

The total for 14 weeks is 722,677/14=51,620. That's certainly more than the first week and even the second, fourth, fifth and sixth for that matter. Pretty much had to go up then, didn't it?

Obviously, though this is not significant growth. I would certainly want more if I were the BDA. But I'd want a $hiteload more if I were HD DVD. Even positive growth would be a good start. ;)

I think one of the problems is that once you start concentrating on the war of pygmies, we miss the bigger picture.

I've to say I'm disappointed that the numbers fell this week. For both BD & HD DVD.

There you go with your facts again, G.

Why can't you just argue with assumptions and opinion like the rest of us? ;)

Well whether or not it was intended, thanks for backing me up. :)

Hopefully this will settle it, but I have my doubts.

I thought you were claiming new releases sold better. Grubert's list clearly shows the opposite. Most of those movies had already been released to DVD, thus, were not new releases. The top couple were, but the rest previous DVD releases. I think only four of them were new releases. I think Grubert is pointing out catalog titles have experienced better sales than new releases.

That's something i've stated before and whole heartedly agree with.. there seems to be little growth coming from standalones on the BD side. It seems the only real strategy BD has is selling PS3's and encouraging owners to buy software, which at this point is looking a difficult job judging by the PS3 ownershio/disk sales ratio. There seems to be little movement from the major CE's and i wonder how long they'll wait. General consumer-wise, their options are to hold out for a massive BD surge which will entice a satisfactory percentage of owners to 'upgrade' to a standalone or drop their prices and severely decrease profit margins this early in the game, and i'm not sure they'd have the incentive to do that any time soon. Maybe LG and Samsung will be just the first to dive into the universal player market.

but yeah.. it's probably off-topic :)

Aren't CE's being hurt in a big way by Sony & Blu-ray. Won't most every common household that has a PS3, now have no need for the standalone, until standalone prices outpace PS3 prices?

I think Samsung going dual format is a tell-tale sign of things to come for CE's. And if CE's really though HD-DVD was dead in 6 months, they wouldn't bother with dual format.

Then from the period of Feb 18 - Mar 18, a combined 23k disc undercount was introduced because of the difference in First Alert data vs. the previous reporting method. According to Nielsen, 293k discs sold during this period.
I was looking at weekly data which seems to even out. I didn't pay attention to YTD etc. I'll do that when I get home ... (my spreadsheet is at home).

Looking at the data I can't come to any conclusions. The first error I got on 2/18 was evened out the next week. But the error from 3/11 didn't even out on 3/18.

But I don't expect the error to be cumulative - even if not completely evened out like the weekly figures.

Why do insist on mixing catalog titles with day and date releases? We both know the difference in sales is day and night between the two.


Aren't there only two day and date titles on that list? I guess the only day and date releases being made are the ones with less than stellar performance at the box office...

Well it would be more impressive if we had data going back to July. But in this very short time period, Jan28 - April 8, there is still a slightly upwardly sloping line produced.

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3460/chartds6.jpg (http://img19.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chartds6.jpg)

Again this is basically for just 9 weeks, so I'll update this graph and make it prettier as we go along.

Over a more relevant time period the trend will be more noticeable.

You realize this grap is useless without an R2 value. It probably has an R2 of around .6, which is a horrible fit. It also means a linear regression is useless for fitting this data.

Edit: Apparently it is much worse than .6, which means it is meaningless, statisticly. But hey, if seeing it makes you sleep better at night, it has some value...

I think Samsung going dual format is a tell-tale sign of things to come for CE's. And if CE's really though HD-DVD was dead in 6 months, they wouldn't bother with dual format.

You mean all the other CEs have an optical division partnered with Toshiba?

Aren't CE's being hurt in a big way by Sony & Blu-ray. Won't most every common household that has a PS3, now have no need for the standalone, until standalone prices outpace PS3 prices?

Standalones will be at PS3 or lower prices by the end of the year in all likelihood. PS3 establishes the format and allows other CEs to profit out of selling players for other uses. For a long time the PS2 was considered one of the cheaper ways to buy into DVD (indeed, I know more than a few people who still use it as their primary DVD player). CEs knew the PS3 was coming, they are well aware of the situation.

I'm sure the Pirates and Spidey movies will be staggered so as to keep the total slope positive well into winter 2007. At which point, Spidey 3 will be coming... ;)

Then this is where Talk's thread/sig about the # of BDA exclusive blockbusters versus those of Universal/WB comes into play...

Have they even announced the Spiderman films for 2007?

Looking at the data I can't come to any conclusions. The first error I got on 2/18 was evened out the next week. But the error from 3/11 didn't even out on 3/18.

But I don't expect the error to be cumulative - even if not completely evened out like the weekly figures.

The fact remains that in a one month window, using first alert data created an 8% error that was carried to subsequent weeks.

Without real Nielsen data to compare with, we will never now what level of error is encountered. However, we have seen it can carry into following weeks, which means it can be cumulative, thus producing larger errors in future weeks.

I think this is a definate danger of using First Alert data. Any ideas on why HMM switched? Were we getting the picture too closely, so Nielsen asked them to stop using finalized data, and report First Alert only, to cause error and inaccuracy to anyone closely tracking?

Without real Nielsen data to compare with, we will never now what level of error is encountered. However, we have seen it can carry into following weeks, which means it can be cumulative, thus producing larger errors in future weeks.

As I said, I can't come to that conclusion with the data we have.

I think this is a definate danger of using First Alert data. Any ideas on why HMM switched? Were we getting the picture too closely, so Nielsen asked them to stop using finalized data, and report First Alert only, to cause error and inaccuracy to anyone closely tracking?

Don't know. As such I'm not sure why the totals are not being given out - since individual title numbers are not there and people who subscribe won't stop if they can just see totals.

Have they even announced the Spiderman films for 2007?

Scenes are shown in the "coming soon" preview on the latest Sonly Blu-ray (from Stranger than Fiction, Casino Royale, etc on).

I think one of the problems is that once you start concentrating on the war of pygmies, we miss the bigger picture.

I've to say I'm disappointed that the numbers fell this week. For both BD & HD DVD.
Agreed.

The sad truth is, even with continued hardware sales for both formats, the software sales remain flat... or worse. Not exactly a good sign.

I thought you were claiming new releases sold better. Grubert's list clearly shows the opposite. Most of those movies had already been released to DVD, thus, were not new releases. The top couple were, but the rest previous DVD releases. I think only four of them were new releases. I think Grubert is pointing out catalog titles have experienced better sales than new releases.
I, personally consider recent releases to be new vs. classics. That has been my point all along. And I think most people that have debated this agree. The argument was about movies like "Spartacus" and "The Thing" vs. modern day, Hollywood blockbusters with killer sound and generally better picture quality but yes, in the case of the poll, mainly "New Releases vs. Catalog Classics" as the title of the poll went.

So I will sum up my position; perhaps you agree. I think new and recent releases, especially high grossing films will generally sell better and sell more hardware than classics like "Lawrence of Arabia" which, of course is a wonderful film...

but I've already seen it and already own it... on DVD. ;)


BTW, the first 4 were essentially day and date. Out of 16 titles, the first 4 alone sold nearly as many as the other 12 combined.

What else ya' got. ;)

sketcha,

Hey, I actually liked your graph. I thought it was well done. The difference in the r values was probably due to the fact that I rounded, not that it apparently made much of a difference.

Keep up the good work :D

sketcha,

Hey, I actually liked your graph. I thought it was well done. The difference in the r values was probably due to the fact that I rounded, not that it apparently made much of a difference.

Keep up the good work :D
Thanks teach.

Yeah, it was my first with Excel. Haven't done graphing since college trig about 15 years ago. Never took stats until a quick, online crash course on correlation today. Wish I had. Seems pretty interesting.

Anyway, from what I gathered in that "crash course," yes, it appears my 10% is still quite, statistically insignificant. Need more data points for a wild one like that I guess.

Bottom line, I learned something new today. Mahalo for the red ink that gave me the nudge to delve.

Aloha, Bra!


EDIT: BTW, in case it didn't come through, I was kidding about the graph crapping thing. I wasn't offended. I should've used a smiley.

The sad truth is, even with continued hardware sales for both formats, the software sales remain flat... or worse. Not exactly a good sign.I think this is over-analyzing the available data. There are still only a small number of movies available in each format. Any individual is only going to be interested in buying a subset of those. There are fluctuations from week to week because of factors such as new releases. There are very few releases from one week to the next. The notion that sales should go up week after week is not plausible.

The most meaningful property of the data is the Bluray/HD DVD ratio over the period of the last six months or so. That's a clear trend.

sketch,

I knew you were kidding about the graph, I was paying a compliment. You did a good job, especially for a first effort. I am impressed. I wish there were more 'students" like you, willing to make the extra effort.

mrseder,

The most meaningful property of the data is the Bluray/HD DVD ratio over the period of the last six months or so. That's a clear trend.

There is no "trend" in the ratio data. It, like the sales data, is pretty much flat - somewhere around 2:1. Given the number of ps3 units out there, that largely accounts for the difference I think.

The notion that sales should go up week after week is not plausible.

but it is entirely plausible. If the players are selling in any reasonable amount, then people will buy discs. Hence, sales should increase, as there are a wide range of movies in both formats, and there should be enough there to appeal to everyone.

Have they even announced the Spiderman films for 2007?

here you have french insert with Spiderman 2.1 DVD release

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Sony/Disc_Announcements/Spider-Man_3_Due_for_November_Blu-ray_Release/573

While the date indicated in the advert -- "Le 2 Novembre 2007" -- obviously refers to the planned French release for the disc, such a date would certainly make sense as a target for worldwide release, given the film's theatrical debut four months earlier.

Marek

Here's my latest chart incorporating the new data:

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/Nielsenapr8chart.jpg

NB: Week of Mar 11 was the week where both BD & HD DVD had no new releases but, even allowing for this, the numbers were probably approx. 10,000 higher for each format. Nielsen never issued corrected numbers for this week to my knowledge. It is unknown whether the correction was rolled into the following week.

My numbers are based on earlier reported numbers (such as 250,000:125,000 for February) and have not been modified to fit with the Sony report numbers which we all know are not true market numbers. Neither are mine (probably) but they will be closer to the true volumes as they include some adjustment for missing volume.

The actual market share reported by all people here will be identical as nobody disputes the market share figures reported by Nielsen.

I've also decided to keep track of a rolling 4 week total to see if this better shows movement in market share - week by week can be a bit erratic as this chart shows.

Volume & Market Share based on past 4 weeks (based on above chart):

BD Vol / Share
276,548 / 73%

HD DVD Vol / Share
103,266 / 27%

EDIT: I had forgotten how often 35mm film is used for TV like Northern Exposure.

I can't believe people are still in the dark about this. Almost all US primetime TV has been shot on film since the 50's. Whatever the subject, it'll still be better in HD. Maybe interiors on a soundstage won't look as good but that's true whatever the format

Since most of Sienfeld has come out in the last 2 years I've held off buying them, like all DVD's to wait for the BD release.

I can't believe people are still in the dark about this. Almost all US primetime TV has been shot on film since the 50's. Whatever the subject, it'll still be better in HD. Maybe interiors on a soundstage won't look as good but that's true whatever the format

Since most of Sienfeld has come out in the last 2 years I've held off buying them, like all DVD's to wait for the BD release.

We will have to see how good a job SPE does on Sienfeld, it could go down pretty well if this is released on BD as it will obviously be exclusive.

The thread title seems to have been deleted again for some reason. Until it re-appears, this is a reminder of the topic of discussion.

Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5

If I have accidently posted this reminder in the 'TV shows on HD' thread then please accept my apologies. :p

I can't believe people are still in the dark about this. Almost all US primetime TV has been shot on film since the 50's. Whatever the subject, it'll still be better in HD. Maybe interiors on a soundstage won't look as good but that's true whatever the format

Since most of Sienfeld has come out in the last 2 years I've held off buying them, like all DVD's to wait for the BD release.

Will it be cropped to 16x9 though? That's the big question.

I thought Seinfeld was an NBC show. Wouldn't make it a Universal release? Or did they sell the rights to Sony?

I thought Seinfeld was an NBC show. Wouldn't make it a Universal release? Or did they sell the rights to Sony?

The DVDs are by Sony. It may have aired on NBC, but it is a SPE show.

I think this is over-analyzing the available data. There are still only a small number of movies available in each format. Any individual is only going to be interested in buying a subset of those. There are fluctuations from week to week because of factors such as new releases. There are very few releases from one week to the next. The notion that sales should go up week after week is not plausible.

The most meaningful property of the data is the Bluray/HD DVD ratio over the period of the last six months or so. That's a clear trend.
I agree with George who... apparently agrees with me on the part that you seem to have missed. Because of continued hardware sales, the data seems to indicate that folks are buying their players, a few discs and that's it. This, of course could easily be explained by rentals which we know so little about. Yes, people buy their machines, a few titles and pretty much rent the rest. If that's the case, that would certainly be a better scenario than them just quitting altogether.

I can't believe people are still in the dark about this. Almost all US primetime TV has been shot on film since the 50's.
And they still are. BSG is another, great example.

From what I understand, Rymer shot that with no intention of going HD. 35mm is just what you do.

The DVDs are by Sony. It may have aired on NBC, but it is a SPE show.

In that case releasing them on BD would have or should have crossed Sony's mind...

They were never excluded, nor are they enough to make up for the strength of new release sales. Of course they are not out yet so they can't do much good until they are, can they.
With respect - a poll that just says "catalog" or "new release" neither takes them into account nor excludes them.

I guarantee that when the Matrix and LOTR come out, they will leave all other titles discussed here in the dust on sales volume.

...including CR.

No offense but predicting that Blu-ray sales would go down isn't much of a prediction since sales for both HD formats will vary over time. A far more interesting prediction would be when/if HD DVD will equal or beat Blu-ray in weekly sales ratio. Care to give a guess?
Actually - it is. since it went completely counter to what you and others have been saying.

Now that you've been proven wrong, and BR sales haven't actually "stomped" HD DVD, but are in fact returning to a par level with HD DVD, now you tell me it's just common sense? Well, thank you - I agree, It's common sense.

That's a clear trend.

Are you still around ? What is clear is that as a complete newbie you seem to have come to this forum with a very clear agenda.

With respect - a poll that just says "catalog" or "new release" neither takes them into account nor excludes them.

I guarantee that when the Matrix and LOTR come out, they will leave all other titles discussed here in the dust on sales volume.

...including CR.
The Matrix will have some effect, sure, but nothing like LOTR.

However, I have already predicted that blockbusters like LOTR will win over time. The double dip effect will probably keep a number of folks from picking them up right away.

With respect - a poll that just says "catalog" or "new release" neither takes them into account nor excludes them.

I guarantee that when the Matrix and LOTR come out, they will leave all other titles discussed here in the dust on sales volume.

...including CR.

I agree with you if Matrix was released as separate editions........ first MATRIX could be huge, but as box, not a chance...... of course it will sell well but nowhere near of possible chance of first MATRIX, well LOTR yup, it will sell like hotcakes ;)

at this moment I can si only Pirates first part to do better then CR, no other title.... and then Cars..., I am interested in first Matrix, so I will probably have to wait for separate editions :) or BD version

Marek

The Matrix will have some effect, sure, but nothing like LOTR.

However, I have already predicted that blockbusters like LOTR will win over time. The double dip effect will probably keep a number of folks from picking them up right away.

Agreed. I think even a Jurrasic Park box set or Jaws box set might do better than the Matrix box-set given that the last 2 titles were a little weak. LOTR IF released will probably be the best seller for both formats....by a big margin. JMHO

With all these catalog majors if one assumes interested people already have the dvd they will re-buy the title only if

- they are videophiles OR
- hardcode movie fans (i.e. fans of that particular movie)

BTW, the numbers, even for CR, are so small - almost every decent movie will beat the big current numbers a year or two down the line.

Because of continued hardware sales, the data seems to indicate that folks are buying their players, a few discs and that's it. This, of course could easily be explained by rentals which we know so little about. Yes, people buy their machines, a few titles and pretty much rent the rest. If that's the case, that would certainly be a better scenario than them just quitting altogether.We don't have data, but I do believe that the format war does increase rentals at the expense of purchases. Most people don't really expect to keep the same player for more than five years anyway, right? Players come and go, but people have an attachment to the movie. They have an expectation of collecting and keeping the movie for much longer. That's why "double dipping" [the later release of an improved version of the same movie] is viewed as negative, whereas the constant release of improved players is viewed as positive. So I can see people holding back on purchases of movies until the format war is settled, while at the same time enjoying high res movies by renting.

I have solved my dilemma :)

Thanks to the post from kdragon here http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=9767608&&#post9767608

and also from the data contained in this PDF here, http://www.people.hbs.edu/aelberse/papers/hbs_07-015.pdf

I am now confident that the only Amazon data that is not counted by Nielsen Videoscan is the Amazon MArketplace sales.

All sales by Amazon itself, however, are tracked.

Sometimes it's hard to tell which sales are via Amazon, but if you are Amazon Prime member, and you see, 1-Click free shipping, it's Amazon. If you see another vendors name in the purchase screen, they are farming it out.

DVDs are usually out of Amazon's stock, tho.

We don't have data, but I do believe that the format war does increase rentals at the expense of purchases. Most people don't really expect to keep the same player for more than five years anyway, right? Players come and go, but people have an attachment to the movie. They have an expectation of collecting and keeping the movie for much longer. That's why "double dipping" [the later release of an improved version of the same movie] is viewed as negative, whereas the constant release of improved players is viewed as positive. So I can see people holding back on purchases of movies until the format war is settled, while at the same time enjoying high res movies by renting.
I buy my HD DVDs and I only rent BDs...

You realize this grap is useless without an R2 value. It probably has an R2 of around .6, which is a horrible fit. It also means a linear regression is useless for fitting this data.

Edit: Apparently it is much worse than .6, which means it is meaningless, statisticly. But hey, if seeing it makes you sleep better at night, it has some value...

The R^2 does not say anything on whether the trend is significant, for which you need to look at the p-values or F-values. But these will be misestimated since this is a time series with lots of serial correlation. So you can't indeed draw any clear conclusions, but that has nothing to do with the R^2.

The R^2 does not say anything on whether the trend is significant, for which you need to look at the p-values or F-values. But these will be misestimated since this is a time series with lots of serial correlation. So you can't indeed draw any clear conclusions, but that has nothing to do with the R^2.
In the spirit of Nigel (Spinal Tap)...

This graph... goes up.

I just love this graph - given that the Top Ten Sales account for the lion's share, I think it shows brilliantly what I've been talking about regarding HD DVD's resurgence and BDs levelling off:

http://www.CampaignHD.com/images/TopTenSales45Amazon.png

This will soon start to be reflected in the Nielsen Videoscan numbers too.

The R^2 does not say anything on whether the trend is significant, for which you need to look at the p-values or F-values. But these will be misestimated since this is a time series with lots of serial correlation. So you can't indeed draw any clear conclusions, but that has nothing to do with the R^2.


Sorry. Apparently you are out of practice on your statistics. A low R2 value tells us that knowing time does not help use determine volume. Or otherwise, we can't determine if volumes are going up or down over time, using a regression with a low R2.

A high R2 tells us that we can predict changes in volume with time (well, its the first step down that line of thinking).

You overlook the fundanmentals. Step one is to look at your regression and R2 value. It will point out whether the correct fit is used or if too much randomness is inherent. Once you pass the R2 test, you can move on to F and then p values to help determine the validity of the hypothesis you are trying to make, based on your regression.

Actually - it is. since it went completely counter to what you and others have been saying.

Now that you've been proven wrong, and BR sales haven't actually "stomped" HD DVD, but are in fact returning to a par level with HD DVD, now you tell me it's just common sense? Well, thank you - I agree, It's common sense.

You DO know that outselling another competitor consistently by a weekly average of around 2:1 IS stomping, right? That stomping comment was made when the ratio was 2:1. and it still is about 2:1 right now, and the average running weekly ratio is probably greater than 2:1....

HD-DVD had quite a number of supposedly good releases for April, and so far it hasn't even managed to get even with Blu-ray on a weekly basis, much less on a monthly or YTD (where it continues to pull away from HD-DVD because of weekly wins).

Sorry. Apparently you are out of practice on your statistics. A low R2 value tells us that knowing time does not help use determine volume.
It tells us that time explains relatively little of the variation in volume. But it may be very significant in what it does explain. So if the question is 'does volume goes up or down over time?' then this regression (if it took into account serial correlation in calculating the std errors and got a very low p-value, which is unlikely with so few data points) may potentially give a perfect answer despite a very low R^2 (and .6 is not necessarily a very low R^2. Any decent undergrad text book will explain you that even R^2 below .5 can be very good.) If the question is 'how well can you predict volume with a time trend?' then the answer is indeed that you can't.

You DO know that outselling another competitor consistently by a weekly average of around 2:1 IS stomping, right?
<snip>

BD will be "stomping" with its 2:1 ratio when it can consistently sell 2:1 of same day released dual format movies. Even a giant oscar winning hit like The Departed - which cost 5 bucks less on BD and (I believe) featured an uncompressed sound track - still couldn't score a 2:1 victory over its HD DVD counterpart. And that's with format neutral owners buying the BD version. Never mind some catalog titles like Superman and Superman II which actually have sold MORE HD DVD copies than BD copies.

Put this way, when format neutral studios look at their sales, they are NOT seeing BD with a 2:1 advantage.

So if the question is 'does volume goes up or down over time?'

As I said earlier - if CR was released in Jan instead of March we would be seeing a different line and -ve growth.

BD will be "stomping" with its 2:1 ratio when it can consistently sell 2:1 of same day released dual format movies. Even a giant oscar winning hit like The Departed - which cost 5 bucks less on BD and (I believe) featured an uncompressed sound track - still couldn't score a 2:1 victory over its HD DVD counterpart. And that's with format neutral owners buying the BD version. Never mind some catalog titles like Superman and Superman II which actually have sold MORE HD DVD copies than BD copies.

Put this way, when format neutral studios look at their sales, they are NOT seeing BD with a 2:1 advantage.
This is invalid because the release schedule has been so poor for HD DVD that anything decent will sell very well.

The trees AND the forest are right in front of you and undeniable. BD is outselling HD DVD by a wide margin in both software and hardware. No amount of spin is going to erase the cold hard facts.

You DO know that outselling another competitor consistently by a weekly average of around 2:1 IS stomping, right? That stomping comment was made when the ratio was 2:1. and it still is about 2:1 right now, and the average running weekly ratio is probably greater than 2:1....

HD-DVD had quite a number of supposedly good releases for April, and so far it hasn't even managed to get even with Blu-ray on a weekly basis, much less on a monthly or YTD (where it continues to pull away from HD-DVD because of weekly wins).

You do know that a 10:1 harware advantage and only a 2: 1 software advantage is not a stomping in most minds except your own. Sales are better, of course, due to the number of BR players vrs HD DVD players but they are not even close to 10:1.

When BR can outsell HD DVD based on it's installed base of players vrs HD DVD players, then you may actually make a little since. But of course, that will never happen in the real world.

BD is outselling HD DVD by a wide margin in both software and hardware. No amount of spin is going to erase the cold hard facts.

Can you explain why Disney and Fox avg sales per title is no better than Universals ?

BD is outselling HD DVD by a wide margin in both software and hardware. No amount of spin is going to erase the cold hard facts.
Take a look at the Top 10 high-definition disc sales recently from Amazon.com. Blu-ray sales (blue line) are getting worse.
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t208/MidnightWatcher_photos/salesrank-1-0-recent30Bluray.jpg

HD DVD sales (black line) are getting much better now that there is a slew of new titles being released:
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t208/MidnightWatcher_photos/salesrank-0-1-recent30HDDVD.jpg

HD DVD sales are getting much better now that there is a slew of new titles being released:
[/IMG]

Actually rank is not equal to sales.

Here is some information that details actual sales:


http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/1806/newnielsenav6.jpg (http://img130.imageshack.us/my.php?image=newnielsenav6.jpg)

I like the way you posted the graphs separately to obscure the fact that Blu-ray is leading HD-DVD in sales rank too. :p

looking for this?

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/3040/salesrank11recent30qn5.jpg (http://img263.imageshack.us/my.php?image=salesrank11recent30qn5.jpg)

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/1806/newnielsenav6.jpg (http://img130.imageshack.us/my.php?image=newnielsenav6.jpg)
Let's take a moment to digest what you've provided. Year to date, Blu-ray is leading due to the relative dearth of HD DVD titles released from January to March. BD discs were pushed with 50% off and Buy-1-Get-1-Free promotions, so this is understandable.

Ok, so YTD sales is 69.4% for Blu-ray (which is not very good considering the number of Blu-ray 'players' out there in the form of the PS3, BD promotions were in full effect, and few titles were released during Q1 for HD DVD). But the week ending 4/8 now shows Blu-ray sales at 62.4% which is down from 69.4% for YTD. Shouldn't Blu-ray be extending their lead?? Instead, HD DVD is closing the gap now that HD DVD titles are being released. This does not look good for Blu-ray, and the sales charts you've provided are only correlating the Amazon rank stats that I have provided above.

I like the way you posted the graphs separately to obscure the fact that Blu-ray is leading HD-DVD in sales rank too.
Nothing is obscured, the sales rank is visible for all to see. What it shows is that Blu-ray disc sales are waning, while HD DVD sales are increasing. Again, this does not look good for Blu-ray.

Let's see if I'm understanding this correctly. Year to date, Blu-ray is leading due to the relative dearth of HD DVD titles released from January to March. BD discs were pushed with 50% off and Buy-1-Get-1-Free promotions, so this is understandable.

Let's take a moment to digest what you've provided. YTD sales is 69.4% for Blu-ray (which is not very good considering the number of Blu-ray 'players' out there in the form of the PS3, and few titles were released during Q1 for HD DVD). But the week ending 4/8 now shows Blu-ray sales at 62.4% which is down from 69.4% for YTD. Shouldn't Blu-ray be extending their lead?? Instead, HD DVD is closing the gap now that HD DVD titles are being released. This does not look good for Blu-ray, and the sales charts you've provided are only correlating the Amazon rank stats that I have provided above.


Nothing is obscured. What it shows is that Blu-ray disc sales are waning, while HD DVD sales are increasing. Again, this does not look good for Blu-ray.

Hey I agree that HD-DVD may survive. In fact if we don't see Universal go neutral by 2008 I'll even buy a HD-DVD player. :)

But just don't think that things look so bad for Blu-ray, and good for HD-DVD as you are saying.

Also, attach rate doesn't mean much if you are not leading absolute sales imo.

Actually rank is not equal to sales.

Here is some information that details actual sales:

Again you got it wrong. Sales ratio is not equal to sales :p

Again you got it wrong. Sales ratio is not equal to sales :p


The chart clearly says "Blu-ray and HD-DVD sales comparison" just because the data is represented by a ratio does not mean that it is not representing sales.

The chart clearly says "Blu-ray and HD-DVD sales comparison" just because the data is represented by a ratio does not mean that it is not representing sales.

Just because it is represented by rank .... you get the gist :p

Anyway, I don't really know what you are trying to post here. The idea here is to analyze the data - not just harp on it for partisan purpose.

Good stuff.

Hopefully the battle wages on and prices drop just in time for a hybrid player, burner, full HTPC/HDCP compatibility etc.

I can see 2 years from now we will be referring to HD/BR Disks just as we refer to DVD+-R.

BTW, the far east will have a huge say here, not good for Toshiba.

BTW, the far east will have a huge say here, not good for Toshiba.

Huge say in Nielsen numbers ?

I am curious what will happen to the weekly HD DVD numbers once the "buy a player get 4 free discs" ends. Will this create a similar spike for HD like the 50% sales did for BD?

This is invalid because the release schedule has been so poor for HD DVD that anything decent will sell very well.

The trees AND the forest are right in front of you and undeniable. BD is outselling HD DVD by a wide margin in both software and hardware. No amount of spin is going to erase the cold hard facts.

oh the land that i am living in, i can see one of the seven dwarfs trying to revive Snow White!

Disney's Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, coming soon exclusively to Blu-ray disc. :D

wnorris,

A high R2 tells us that we can predict changes in volume with time (well, its the first step down that line of thinking).

You overlook the fundanmentals. Step one is to look at your regression and R2 value. It will point out whether the correct fit is used or if too much randomness is inherent. Once you pass the R2 test, you can move on to F and then p values to help determine the validity of the hypothesis you are trying to make, based on your regression.

nescio,

It tells us that time explains relatively little of the variation in volume. But it may be very significant in what it does explain. So if the question is 'does volume goes up or down over time?' then this regression (if it took into account serial correlation in calculating the std errors and got a very low p-value, which is unlikely with so few data points) may potentially give a perfect answer despite a very low R^2 (and .6 is not necessarily a very low R^2. Any decent undergrad text book will explain you that even R^2 below .5 can be very good.) If the question is 'how well can you predict volume with a time trend?' then the answer is indeed that you can't

you both have it slightly off. Stats 101

r = the pearson product moment correlation = relationship between two variables. In other words, the degreee to which two variables change together. Note, correlation does not provide any inherent information regarding causation.

r^2 or r2 = the percentage of variance accounted for by your independent variable in a correlation. An r^2 of .6 (60% of the variance) would be considered quite good in many areas of research.

The pearson r can be statistically significant, and this is normally determined by an F test, as the corrleation represents a subset of what is called the general linear model, out of which standard statistical tests such as the ANOVA (analysis of variance = F test). There is no such thing as an r2 test.

Given large enough data sets, even small correlations (e.g., .2) can be significant, and can therefore explain a statistically significant amount of the variance. However, that does not necessarily mean that that variance is important or "significant" in a more traditional sense.

p values are simply the level you set where you are willing to make a Type 1 error, in other words, say you had a significant (i.e., non-chance) result.

Hey I agree that HD-DVD may survive. In fact if we don't see Universal go neutral by 2008 I'll even buy a HD-DVD player. :)

But just don't think that things look so bad for Blu-ray, and good for HD-DVD as you are saying.

Also, attach rate doesn't mean much if you are not leading absolute sales imo.
It's not a question of if HD DVD survive. It will. I think that it is more a question of how poorly will Blu-ray do? And btw, you should buy an HD DVD player and enjoy it today! After all, there are currently more HD DVD titles and HD DVD exclusives announced this year than there are Blu-ray titles and exclusives. :p

As of right now, Amazon rankings are as follows:

TOP 10:

HD DVD 338
Blu-ray 350

TOP 50:

HD DVD 2010
Blu-ray 2138

TOP 100:

HD DVD 4168
Blu-ray 4273

This may go back and forth for some time, but when we've got 5x the number of Blu-ray 'players' in the form of the PS3 in the hands of consumers, the fact that HD DVD is selling numbers like this, again, does not look good for Blu-ray.

It's not a question of if HD DVD survive. It will. I think that it is more a question of how poorly will Blu-ray do? And btw, you should buy an HD DVD player and enjoy it today! After all, there are currently more HD DVD titles and HD DVD exclusives announced this year than there are Blu-ray titles and exclusives. :p

As of right now, Amazon rankings are as follows:

TOP 10:

HD DVD 338
Blu-ray 350

TOP 50:

HD DVD 2010
Blu-ray 2138

TOP 100:

HD DVD 4168
Blu-ray 4273

This may go back and forth for some time, but when we've got 5x the number of Blu-ray 'players' in the form of the PS3 in the hands of consumers, the fact that HD DVD is selling numbers like this, again, does not look good for Blu-ray.

What day is this? Isn't it the 15th of April ...the exact date of your mass/HD DVD support big buy on Amazon? What a coincidence. Enjoy the razor thin lead for several days because it will not last. Nice try though ...most of us know whats going around here.

As of right now, Amazon rankings are as follows:

TOP 10:

Blu-ray 361.3
HD DVD 373.9

TOP 25:

Blu-ray 926.96
HD DVD 1026.48

TOP 100:

HD DVD 4263.41
Blu-ray 4367.26

I like if somebody using PS3 numbers as if all PS3 owners bought it just for blu-ray movies and not for games.... where is that 22% number of PS3 owners, wich are using it for movies ? :) I love how they spin 5:1 10:1 in HW :)

Marek

What day is this? Isn't it the 15th of April ...the exact date of your mass/HD DVD support big buy on Amazon? What a coincidence. Enjoy the razor thin lead for several days because it will not last. Nice try though ...most of us know whats going around here.


Right, and that half-off sale a month ago on Amazon didn't boost Blu-ray's sales past the norm. Funny how every other post in the HD DVD forum was a Blu-ray troll boasting about a 4:1 sales lead while that sale was going on, but when HD DVD gets a boost from a group buy, it's considered an anomaly.

Right, and that half-off sale a month ago on Amazon didn't boost Blu-ray's sales past the norm. Funny how every other post in the HD DVD forum was a Blu-ray troll boasting about a 4:1 sales lead while that sale was going on, but when HD DVD gets a boost from a group buy, it's considered an anomaly.

Excuse me, but a group of HD DVD supporters focussing their purchases on one retailer on one day is the definition of ANOMALY! :rolleyes:

The Blu-ray surge at Amazon during the sale was also an anomaly - as can be seen by the fallback in Blu-ray volumes on Amazon at present.

What is not an anomaly is the state of HD disc sales over a period of time with data gathered from a large number of retail sources - that would be the Nielsen figures reported each week.

A 4:1 weekly ratio was reported for 2 consecutive weeks by Nielsen VideoScan. I await this weeks figures with great interest. Will there be a HD DVD surge? I doubt it. Maybe a blip.

Ok, so YTD sales is 69.4% for Blu-ray (which is not very good considering the number of Blu-ray 'players' out there in the form of the PS3, BD promotions were in full effect, and few titles were released during Q1 for HD DVD). But the week ending 4/8 now shows Blu-ray sales at 62.4% which is down from 69.4% for YTD.

A YTD figure is just that - the cumulative sales ratio for the year so far. Each individual week will have fluctuation, which is an interesting figure in itself, but it is illogical to assume that each weekly figure should match or exceed the YTD figure. Some weeks it will be 60:40, others it will be 80:20.

Can you explain why Disney and Fox avg sales per title is no better than Universals ?
Sure can. In fact I already did several pages back. It goes to inner-format competition, but I'm not about to beat that horse again. If this comparison makes you feel better, I have no wish to take that away from you.

You do know that a 10:1 harware advantage and only a 2: 1 software advantage is not a stomping in most minds except your own. Sales are better, of course, due to the number of BR players vrs HD DVD players but they are not even close to 10:1.

When BR can outsell HD DVD based on it's installed base of players vrs HD DVD players, then you may actually make a little since. But of course, that will never happen in the real world.
I'm glad that you can somehow find solace in a sales beating of 2:1. That takes some real creativity. Kudos.

Let's take a moment to digest what you've provided. Year to date, Blu-ray is leading due to the relative dearth of HD DVD titles released from January to March. BD discs were pushed with 50% off and Buy-1-Get-1-Free promotions, so this is understandable.

Ok, so YTD sales is 69.4% for Blu-ray (which is not very good considering the number of Blu-ray 'players' out there in the form of the PS3, BD promotions were in full effect, and few titles were released during Q1 for HD DVD). But the week ending 4/8 now shows Blu-ray sales at 62.4% which is down from 69.4% for YTD. Shouldn't Blu-ray be extending their lead?? Instead, HD DVD is closing the gap now that HD DVD titles are being released. This does not look good for Blu-ray, and the sales charts you've provided are only correlating the Amazon rank stats that I have provided above.


Nothing is obscured, the sales rank is visible for all to see. What it shows is that Blu-ray disc sales are waning, while HD DVD sales are increasing. Again, this does not look good for Blu-ray.
Since you want to talk about Blu-ray, I'll speak of HD DVD.

You just had your best release schedule in... almost forever. How's your weekly pie chart, there?

Just because it is represented by rank .... you get the gist :p

Anyway, I don't really know what you are trying to post here. The idea here is to analyze the data - not just harp on it for partisan purpose.
I think you may want to tell this to some of your boys.

Disney's Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, coming soon exclusively to Blu-ray disc. :D
:D :D :D

I like if somebody using PS3 numbers as if all PS3 owners bought it just for blu-ray movies and not for games.... where is that 22% number of PS3 owners, wich are using it for movies ? :) I love how they spin 5:1 10:1 in HW :)

Marek
You mean you weren't fooled by this brilliant spin maneuver? ;)

Just when we thought HD DVD was dead and buried it takes the lead in disc sales on Amazon (mid April 2007). Who would have guessed that this was possible? I guess we'll have to get used to the fact that these two "little" formats both have some room to grow!

Cheers,

Grant

These are all true IF the data as reported is true. For now, I can't find it on their site. So, unless someone points me to a link that shows the actual data, I will have to start second guessing...

However, if this data is true. Then we are seeing the end of HD DVD. Like I said, new content had very little impact on the top 5 titles. It was all PS3!

It would illustrate a tremendous hardware momentum that again would prove that Fox was right about HD DVD being unable to create a beach head. Once again, I would have been wrong in my analysis.

Basically, I would have screwed up badly and had it been my job, I would expect to be fired :)

Oh, I don't think you'll be fired just yet! Lots of former BD exclusive guys buying into $299 HD DVD players right now. Who's first to leave a sinking ship (rats and who needs them) and then what if it doesn't sink? You're rat free! :D This "war" is far from over.

Cheers,

Grant

Very interesting:

http://gallery.avsforum.com/data/508/HdGameDb_DVDwarTop10.png

Looks like a definite recent trend is holding on Amazon for now. Another week for this to show up in the Nielsen numbers/rankings that we are able to get?

HDDVD supporters planned a large coordinated group Amazon buy starting today. Could we please stop using today as indicative as some sort of trend? It's nonsense. It's no more a trend than when Bluray had the Amazon sale.

HDDVD supporters planned a large coordinated group Amazon buy starting today. Could we please stop using today as indicative as some sort of trend? It's nonsense. It's no more a trend than when Bluray had the Amazon sale.


Is it a coincidence that currently 8 out of the top 10 BD disks at amazon have gone up in rank too? Maybe they just haven't been as vocal about it....

Did anyone catch this .

Grubert?


The DVDempire stats for Apr 4 went final at 44.70% HD DVD to 55.30% Blu-ray.


That was a 20% gain for HD DVD and 20% loss for Blu-ray over the previouos week. That held steady throughout the week.


Current week iniitial numbers 39.81 % to 60.19%


http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365593062706

HDDVD supporters planned a large coordinated group Amazon buy starting today. Could we please stop using today as indicative as some sort of trend? It's nonsense. It's no more a trend than when Bluray had the Amazon sale.
It is an indication of the fact that no one is buying this stuff when a few people can completely change the sales charts.

Oh, I don't think you'll be fired just yet! Lots of former BD exclusive guys buying into $299 HD DVD players right now. Who's first to leave a sinking ship (rats and who needs them) and then what if it doesn't sink? You're rat free! :D This "war" is far from over.

Cheers,

Grant

That is true :) Actually, the PS3 momentum appears to have stalled. Since Sony was supposed to put out 1M PS3 per month and HD DVD would have a maximum of 1M players by the end of the year, it appeared that HD DVD would be overwhelmed by the PS3 and the owners buying frenzy, especially if the game catalog for the PS3 continued to be weak. It looks like Sony isn't selling nearly as many PS3 as they had hoped and HD DVD seems to be ramping up their hardware sales nicely.

In the end, hardware is needed to create a beach head, so looks like BD hasn't succeeded in stopping HD DVD in their tracks. I have always maintained that it isn't about sales ratios as much as it is about the volume of business that a format can generate.

Of course, Fox isn't anywhere close to meeting their predictions - probably because of the PS3 under delivering in a big way so far....

Guess I get to keep my job, with a nice bonus :D

Originally Posted by Kosty
How does the YTD projection columns work and what do they represent? i seee fixed values....

Can you adjust the numbers up by a fixed number say 1.25 to project for a 80% N/V capture rate? or 60% or 40% rate?[I actually had that feature built into the previous version.

The Projection columns are a measure of the data we are getting from Home Media Magazine.

If you'd like, I can add more columns in the next version and allow for an optional multiplier to "project from the projection" as it were, and allow for a Nielsen coverage of X%. Please add this feature to scale up the numbers.

Did anyone catch this .

Grubert?


The DVDempire stats for Apr 4 went final at 44.70% HD DVD to 55.30% Blu-ray.


That was a 20% gain for HD DVD and 20% loss for Blu-ray over the previouos week. That held steady throughout the week.


Current week iniitial numbers 39.81 % to 60.19%


http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365593062706

DVD empire might be that way but correct real number (or close to real) are :

http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/3750/newnielseniy9.jpg

HMM switched from finalized numbers to First Alert numbers at that point. I thought it would be informative to do a side-by-side comparison of the performance between First Alert versus the finalized figures.

As things stand, it looks like the current Nielsen First Alert data is undercounted by ~13K for Blu-ray and ~11K for HD DVD up through March 18th. We need to bear that in mind when looking at future numbers, as it's very possible that undercount will "bounce back" into the figures at some point. If I were a betting man, I'd say that may have happened on week of April 1. The numbers for both sides are abnormally high, even considering the new releases.

I'd almost prefer that HMM go back to just releasing finalized numbers. These First Alert figures are cool, but they're not really useful for the sort of projections we want to do (week-to-week sales), as evidenced by what happened on March 11th. Maybe Grubert can gee them to do this. they switched over the week Blu-ray was going over HD DVD in the SI numbers. If they can't stop using the first alert numbers maybe they at least can give us a footnote to last weeks final numbers, its almost like a correction and more accurate.

Grubert?

DVD empire might be that way but correct real number (or close to real) are :

http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/3750/newnielseniy9.jpg

Yeah but ...... On Amazon HD DVD is gaining too. Now surpassing Blu-ray. :eek:

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

;)


No matter how you look at it in, Nielson, in DVDempire on Amazon HD DVD is undeniably gaining back some lost ground and the format wars ae obviously not over and the BDA's first quarter propaganda claims of the format war being over are looking more silly every day.

Let me ask you this. How sure are you about this source of yours ?

150K of just XA2s is a lot of players when they have only sold some 50K in the first three months - it sounds like. Afterall that would mean even more of A2s have been made. My information was that Toshiba had planned to manufacture over 700,000 HD A2s by July and over 150,000 HD XA2s'. But thats a little stale.

Its possible that they would produce that many HD XA2s, They certainly intend to sell at least that many by the EOY if not more. Based on demand trends and manufacturing capability, they may have created that many.

Its makes sense to make them in the most economical batches and in the biggest lots you expect to sell. They'll be current for at least a year, why not make that many?

The recent price drops also make the HD XA2 a better upgrade option over the HD A2 and HD A20.

Yeah but ...... On Amazon HD DVD is gaining too. Now surpassing Blu-ray. :eek:

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

;)


No matter how you look at it in, Nielson, in DVDempire on Amazon HD DVD is undeniably gaining back some lost ground and the format wars ae obviously not over and the BDA's first quarter propaganda claims of the format war being over are looking more silly every day.

People pre-ordering every title they can to create a sales spike probably doesn't mean much.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10304796&&#post10304796

Originally Posted by Grubert
Estimates show that as much as 40% of all DVD sales in the country occur in Wal-Mart stores.
While this may be true for DVD sales, I highly doubt optical HD sales are anywhere near that level. I know I've only bought one HD title from Walmart so far, and that was solely because I've only found HD discs in one out of four stores I've checked. I'll also add that the selection at that one store was very thin.That will start to be the case as HD DVD and Blu-ray player and title prices drop a bit more an Wal-Mart and Sam's club start selling them on mass.

That may happen sooner than we think. ;)

Some some of the thought behind the Nielson/Videoscan capture rate discussion. But I agree that Wal-Mart has less HD share than standard DVDs. But so again, at this moment, non N/V small retailers probably have a larger share of the HD market that they normally would.

Double Post.

Possible, but the article does refer to published data. Where has this been published?

You may still be right but I suspect they are refering to the figures up to April 1. My table shows HD DVD at 902,297 units. The difference is that Ice chooses to stick to guessing volume of Nielsen's market coverage. Whereas I prefer to use other numbers published throughout the year that hint at extrapolated volumes that are probably closer to the true state of the market.

For example:


http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6422898.html

I think 250,000:125,000 is more likely than 205,646:97,618 as shown in the Sony report. That would put Nielsen's coverage at close to 80% - more than I initially thought but probably not too far off. We may be using earlier Nielson data . What they refer to "published data" is data coming form Nielson/Videoscan adn distributed to subscribers. It may not have been "published" in a normal sense in consumer or public article. It needs to be leaked or released.

Its probable the larger number is based on a later Nielson report than we have numbers on. That probably means that HD DVD numbers have increased after April 1st first alert numbers,


I also think at this time the N/V number are probably 80% coverage.

I personally think some of the untracked sales would tend toward HD DVD from the small untracked retailers selling HD DVD like VE. Most Blu-ray sales IMHO are going to be captured by N/V.

Sure can. In fact I already did several pages back. It goes to inner-format competition, ....

You mean the "fact" that it is more difficult to sell movies on BD than on HD DVD ? :D

Is it always this nutty at this forum? How do HDDVD supporters think there can be any credible claim of a "trend" based on a timed group buy?

I am skeptical about the Circuit City sales theory, but if it is true about sales getting a huge spike why would they mention that they sold more for last 7 day when they are annnouncing the release of the A20, it wouldnt make much sense and doesnt fit in the format of the press release it would make it seem awkward and desperate. It would go something like this (portion added by me is underlined):

Movie lovers take note - to complement growing HD DVD player sales, more than 70 new HD DVD titles are scheduled to be released between now and July 2007. With more than 900,000 HD DVD discs sold to date, and outselling Blu-ray from Apr 3-10 according to published Nielsen data, the momentum for HD DVD continues to grow.

So even if it did happen I wouldnt make sense that they mention it now.

Also BD people can just reply by saying they out sold HD DVD out for the last 4 months. I can see why it would not be mentioned.

Toshiba would not want to mention a temporary sales trend , a short term one, or invite a direct comparison to pa Blu-ray sales leads.

I've read and written a lot of press releases in the past. It seems likely that Toshiba would have though it premature to release a one week trend.

No reason to complicate the point you are are trying to make. :)

A YTD figure is just that - the cumulative sales ratio for the year so far. Each individual week will have fluctuation, which is an interesting figure in itself, but it is illogical to assume that each weekly figure should match or exceed the YTD figure. Some weeks it will be 60:40, others it will be 80:20.
It does not change the fact that Blu-ray sales have been dwindling.

You just had your best release schedule in... almost forever. How's your weekly pie chart, there?
Wow Skatcha, you admit that HD DVD is getting better and better, and showing no signs of slowing down. Kudos!!

Yes, BD would do that, and at the end of december they knew that they would have a lead for a while since they had PS3 sales and 30 new releases for January compared to HD's 16. But looking at statements Toshiba has made in the past they arent very aggressive. They are taking the conservative approach. They probably want to wait a week or two to see if it continues or not. Whats the point if Blu-Ray outsells HD 2 to 1 next week. Yep.

Toshiba is traditionally very conservative in Press Releases. HD DVD PRG is just a reflection of that.

Remember, HD DVD press strategy is more defensive in nature, and is using a very long term press strategy.

Blu-ray's aggressive 2st quarter PR blitz may come back to haunt them and make future claims suspect as their claim of overwhelming victory may start to look hollow.

Different ways to play the PR game. HD DVD is not making claims that might bite them in the butt in the future.

But they are not trying for a PR victory either.

Yep.

But they are not trying for a PR victory either.

Well that is certainly good news, since its hard to claim a PR victory when there is no sales data to back you up.

Nielsen do not project but anyone buying their data will know what their market coverage is and be able to extrapolate for the missing volume.

This is why we are getting different figures quoted for the same period. Sony were clear in their report that they were using data that did not capture the whole market. When Toshiba quoted the 900,000 HD DVD figure presumably they were estimating for missing data.

It would be nice if we could have a Nielsen insider here to clear a few things up. But, that would devalue their service somewhat. Toshiba said thy were using data as reported by Nielson. (not projected numbers)

Its clear those were numbers from a later report.

Just when we thought HD DVD was dead and buried it takes the lead in disc sales on Amazon (mid April 2007). Who would have guessed that this was possible? I guess we'll have to get used to the fact that these two "little" formats both have some room to grow!
Definitely not someone like Beatboy77. Wasn't he the one who said that Blu-ray had "permanently surpassed HD DVD" or something when Blu-ray sales appeared to surpass HD DVD during HD DVD's slow Q1 release schedule? :rolleyes:

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
Even with lower sales numbers, that's HD DVD's best showing for the year in the first alert data. 1.65 to 1.

That's just a partial showing of the HD DVD Circuit City promotion though. Wonder if the weeks final numbers will be significantly different

Nielsen reporting question.

Would every retailer have to report to Nielsen on a weekly basis? Can retailers just submit data once a month or something, and Nielsen redistribute the sales into the data by date of sale? No its all weekly by design.

Even the diary or survey figures are collected weekly.

Individual retailers may fail to comply weekly, but that that doesn't happen for long, as they lose access to data and their reporting is resolved.

Once a week is final closed. Its a historical document without data revisions, only footnotes or explanatory comments. the monthly and annual figures can have data adjustments for inaccuracy like the lack of dual disc sales earlir in the year.

In any case it looks like HD DVD has had the best weekly ratio for this year. It is now 1.66:1 compared to 4.5:1 on Mar 25th. Looking at the Amazon trends it looks like HD DVD will make even more gains next N/V week.

Plus the CC HD DVD disc sale with HD A2 purchase should be more kicked in.

Makes the Toshiba PR 900,000 H/V reported number seem likely.

The Nielsen big report has taught us that, for the most part, only new releases are big sellers. And whereas HD DVD had one day-and-date title (The Good Shepherd, which entered the chart at #1), BD didn't (well, there was Volver, but foreign-language titles don't sell ;) ).

The mere fact that BD without significant new releases outsold HD DVD 1.66:1 is remarkable. That could change with HD DVD hardware prices dropping and more new player being sold. HD DVD may double its installed base again this quarter and all available HD DVD titles look new for someone unwrapping a new HD A2 or HD A20 or HD A2 or Xbox 360 HD DVD drive orsoon to be Venturer or other Chinese SoC player.

Catalog titles could sell a lot more as player volumes increase.

...And on Apr 24th Deja Vu and Te Queen are released exclusively to BD skewing numbers in favor of Blu-ray and confusing all of the arm chair home video heads again....

:p

fitprod

My position is not that HD-DVD will become extinct, vanish off the face of the earth within a year etc.

I think that HD-DVD can survive for several years as a niche format catering to xbox360 diehards and some AV enthusiasts who are for whatever reason attached to the platform. Some could say the same could be said for Blu-ray and the PS3. Substitute those terms in your statement above.

rewritten as :
My position is not that Blu-ray will become extinct, vanish off the face of the earth within a year etc.

I think that Blu-ray can survive for several years as a niche format catering to PS3 diehards and some AV enthusiasts who are for whatever reason attached to the platform Thats a possible result also. :p

Blu-ray needs more than the PS3 to sustain sales in the long run. ;)

I think the format war is pretty much a joke. Most of us refuse to buy Sony's proprietary junk regardless of it winning or not...

Look at all their formats that have lost... I guess eventually Sony's bound to get something right but lets be honest about it the PS3 is a hunk of crud. I own it and I'd never use it as a video player and thats the general feelings of just about everyone I know who owns one.

The thing is a joke... the games are a joke.

I'd rather stick with SD DVD than go full blown BD. I have a few BD movies and I have about 40 or so HD DVD movies... I just think overall this whole thing is way over blown and that it's waaaaaaaaaaaay to early to tell who's going to win.

I think it will be interesting to see who hits a mass market push of lower cost HD DVD players or BD players... I'm sure that HD DVD will win that race...

I just expected the CC sale to have a bigger impact. I guess a few possibilities exist:

a. My local store was an extreme, and overall CC sold very few A2's
b. The CC rep didn't know what they were talking about when they said 30-40 players (I admit, misinformed CC sales reps are a high probability)
c. Nielsen somehow filtered CC's data, since they knew CC was supposed to be giving the discs away
d. Stores aren't required to file data weekly with Nielsen, and CC files monthly, which would mean a huge correction somewhere in the next few weeks
e. CC doesn't report First Alert, only regular
f. Some flaw exists in HMM's reporting of Nielsen data
g. My store was incorrectly counting the discs as sales, and everywhere else the free discs showed free on the receipts

Any of these could explain why there was no huge spike that I was expecting from the CC sale. A couple of them would mean a HUGE correction in the near future if CC did sell as many A2's as I thought. or the data will be reflected in the Apr 8 final data, (which we don't have ready access to).

CC reports weekly to Nielson/Videoscan. I know this.

that being said your store may be an outlier.

Mist likely though is the data is split week and has not been shown in the April 1 or April 8 first data, but would be caught in the final data, like what Toshiba had in its report of 900,000 HD DVD sales.

Thanks for your concern, nataraj. "I cannot help... but be touched."

This (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=795137) poll.

Before I posted this, there was a thunderous drumbeat of the importance of catalog titles OVER new releases. It was a bit baffling to me that there was even a debate. To me it was like saying that Blu-ray is less expensive than HD DVD. It's just one of those things you have to give to the opposing argument. After the poll, the drumbeat seemed to quiet by more than a fair amount. I'm betting you wish to rekindle that, eh? Nice to know you're felling better for yourself. :p j/k

That poll was what would sell more consoles. :D

There are a lot more catalog titles than current releases. ;) More penetration of players may end up selling a lot more catalog titles.

For studios re -sales of dormant catalog titles in HD is found money. To a degree, sales of HD DVD or Blu-ray new releases may just be a substitute for a DVD sale.

The studios would love to sell a catalog title in HD, that has virtually zero DVD sales and have sustained sales over time of that HD title to a ever increasing base of HD player owners.

Low costs for a catalog title release and steady sales over time for 100's or thousands of titles can add up to real found money.

You mean the "fact" that it is more difficult to sell movies on BD than on HD DVD ? :D
Relatively speaking? Yes. Fortunately there is a hardware advantage to counter this.

This is another reason why I don't buy into the whole competition thing. The exclusives cannot directly compete against one another. If there was one format, of course they would.

you both have it slightly off.

I'm not sure where we disagree :)
An F test simply tests the significance of any F statistic. Simultaneous restrictions in the (linear or non-linear) regression model can be written such that they are F-distributed under the null hypothesis. The F test reported by most stat programs, and the one I referred to, test the joint significance of all coefficients. Of course, you can use it to test the significance of anything that is F-distributed under the null.
Anyways, we're probably in the wrong place to debate the technical merits of alternative hypothesis testing procedures ;)

The discs that went out the door at CC will most likely be estimated and taken off of the number because it was a special event. The way Sony did it in Jan and Feb is a better way to do it, and it shows. If they were considered free with purchase they would not be counted, but that would have to be a subtraction decision by Nielson in accounting for the numbers.

Typically if it hits a retail scanner even at 0 price, it gets counted as a Nielson sale. But I suppose could make the adjustment if it figured those movies were not consumer decisions. I suppose they could tell by the number of HD A2s sold and subtract out the discs. But I think that's unlikely.

But since consumers have a choice of which titles to purchase, and the primary purpose of the Nielson data is show sales data between the titles, my best guess is that the CC sale will eventually show up in the data.

Things like KK or TN in the boxes or the Toshiba shipped free movies do not get counted because they are not only free but are a limited selection and do not go through a retail scanner.

Wow Skatcha, you admit that HD DVD is getting better and better, and showing no signs of slowing down. Kudos!!
Actually, your sarcasm aside, I do. I've been in the "this war is far from over" camp for quite some time. In fact, more and more I consider the stalemate/dual format possibility. I will probably wait until 2008 to make a decision on that, though. Though I voted ("Gentleman's Wager") for BD by 12/31/07, I do believe it is possible to lose that bet. Of course it's going to take some awfully cheap players to pull that off, IMHO.

If you guys would let up a bit, I wouldn't be forced to point out all the flaws in your arguments and you would probably hear more rhetoric, like the paragraph above, out of me.

Also, are you guys prepared to continue buying after today? Otherwise your in for some backlash after all this talk of rank based on an obvious ploy. I think it's great that you did the group buy thing, but no one's falling for the hourly rank gloating.

Enjoy your moment like it was your last. :)

Its makes sense to make them in the most economical batches and in the biggest lots you expect to sell. They'll be current for at least a year, why not make that many?

Cost of carrying inventory. I guess they will have to balance that with how they want to use their manufacturing capacity (or they getting them done in CHina, BTW).

I'm not sure where we disagree :)
An F test simply tests the significance of any F statistic. Simultaneous restrictions in the (linear or non-linear) regression model can be written such that they are F-distributed under the null hypothesis. The F test reported by most stat programs, and the one I referred to, test the joint significance of all coefficients. Of course, you can use it to test the significance of anything that is F-distributed under the null.
Anyways, we're probably in the wrong place to debate the technical merits of alternative hypothesis testing procedures ;)
On the contrary, I can't think of a better thread. Please continue.

What I gathered is the possibility that we cannot FORECAST based on this line, but you CAN see the trend up until the last data point. So it is useful for that. No?

I've also read that there is a difference between strength of the regression line and significance and that you can have one without necessarily having the other, though I cannot say whether or not the line is strong either.

Planet Earth for HD DVD breaks top 10. Currently it is at # 9. This is a new milestone, the first high definition boxset title to reach this type of sales rank. Way to go everyone!!

I am curious what will happen to the weekly HD DVD numbers once the "buy a player get 4 free discs" ends. Will this create a similar spike for HD like the 50% sales did for BD? Except that its a lot cheaper for Toshiba to sustain that promotion that the 50% off retail or $10 of coupons.

Those catalog free discs are bought at a negotiated price from the studios and cost Toshiba a fraction of the retailed based promotions do.

5 free discs is a perceived $150 consumer value, and costs only a tiny fraction ofthat to Toshiba and the HD DVD PRG.

They may sustain that offer throughout the year or stop it and then renew it again with different discs.

Nice to know you're felling better for yourself. :p j/k

There are a lot more catalog titles than current releases. ;) More penetration of players may end up selling a lot more catalog titles.

For studios re -sales of dormant catalog titles in HD is found money. To a degree, sales of HD DVD or Blu-ray new releases may just be a substitute for a DVD sale.

The studios would love to sell a catalog title in HD, that has virtually zero DVD sales and have sustained sales over time of that HD title to a ever increasing base of HD player owners.

Low costs for a catalog title release and steady sales over time for 100's or thousands of titles can add up to real found money.
1. Thanks to you, as well for your concern. :p

2. That's possible, but there is little to no indication of that so far.

3. Agreed, but the winning format is obviously in a much better position for those future catalog sales. Still, this says little of what is actually happening. Catalogs are just not the driving force.

4. Of course they would. Any sales are good.

5. Yes. This post of yours is ALL hypothesis, barring your concern for my well-being, of course. I guess hypothesis is just about all you have at the moment, eh? ;)

Planet Earth for HD DVD breaks top 10. Currently it is at # 9. This is a new milestone, the first high definition boxset title to reach this type of sales rank. Way to go everyone!!

Didn't someone boast on youtube that he would smash his PS3 if a HD DVD came inside top 10 ? Mspeed ... ?

HDDVD supporters planned a large coordinated group Amazon buy starting today. Could we please stop using today as indicative as some sort of trend? It's nonsense. It's no more a trend than when Bluray had the Amazon sale. Except the trend clearly started days ago. :p

If it sustain for few days or more your comment will look silly.

At any rate, it would show alot of power to AVS if only AVS HD DVD backers could tilt Amazon and if confirmed the later Nielson/Videoscan numbers.

By the way, how do you explain now HD DVD rebounds in dvdempire, Nielson and no Amazon? :D

HDDVD supporters planned a large coordinated group Amazon buy starting today. Could we please stop using today as indicative as some sort of trend? It's nonsense. It's no more a trend than when Bluray had the Amazon sale.

So did BD supporters. They just didn't get much traction ...

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=833108

Is it always this nutty at this forum? How do HDDVD supporters think there can be any credible claim of a "trend" based on a timed group buy? because it showing up in several other places and its more than on this date.


Nice post history there since your join date. Welcome to the discussion.

Congratulations to HD-DVD for getting a title in the top 10. I am impressed!! :)

However we still need to keep some perspective.

Here is this HD-DVD spike you have created by doing all the buying that you possibly can, you have put 3 titles in the top 100:

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/715/top10011recent302gq2.jpg (http://img265.imageshack.us/my.php?image=top10011recent302gq2.jpg)

When the big Blu-ray buy happened a few weeks back we put 20 titles in the top 100.

http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/2767/top10011recent30wr9lo7.jpg (http://img126.imageshack.us/my.php?image=top10011recent30wr9lo7.jpg)

I have archived every chart from the blu-ray buy a few weeks back, and in every category Blu-ray dominates the April 15th HD-DVD buy by an exponential margin.

If you want we can go through every one. :p

Or maybe you guys need to start buying 5 or 6 copies of every movie. What would that do to attach rates? :D

Also, I wonder if any of these are being bought on the corporate cards of a certain company with very active members here and charged to "marketing expense" on next quarter's income statement. :p

Snapshot of Walmart "Top Sellers" where ["HD-DVD" or "Blu-Ray"] is used as the search term within "Movies". Only for consideration as to how they're performing comparatively, with no indication of sales numbers.

1. Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (HD-DVD)
Warner Home Video, 04/24/2007 (PreOrder)

2. Happy Feet (Blu-Ray)
Warner Home Video, 03/27/2007

3. Children Of Men (HD-DVD)
Universal Home Video, 03/27/2007

4. Mission: Impossible Ultimate Collection (HD-DVD)
Paramount Home Entertainment, 10/30/2006

5. Night At The Museum (Blu-Ray)
20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, 04/24/2007 (PreOrder)

6. Payback: Straight Up (Blu-Ray)
Paramount Home Entertainment, 04/10/2007

7. Casino Royale 2006 (Blu-Ray)
Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, 03/13/2007

8. Departed (Blu-Ray), The
Warner Home Video, 02/13/2007

9. Happy Feet (HD-DVD)
Warner Home Video, 03/27/2007

10. Eragon (Blu-Ray)
20th Century Fox Home Entertainment, 03/20/2007

4 HD-DVDs in the top 10, 3 out of the top 4 are HD-DVD. How many sites is this coordinated buy targeting?

I have archived every chart from the blu-ray buy a few weeks back

Don't you mean blu-ray sale? Big difference. These HD DVDs are not at 50% off.

Snapshot of Walmart "Top Sellers" where ["HD-DVD" or "Blu-Ray"] is used as the search term within "Movies". Only for consideration as to how they're performing comparatively, with no indication of sales numbers.


I've tried to use this trick before to figure out Walmart's sales, but it gives very inconsistent results. This may be due to extremely low sales of HD's on Walmart or due to the way they calculate their rankings.

Look at it: POTC and Planet Earth on BD don't even show up in this ranking? But Happy Feet on BD is the highest selling BD title (including pre-orders) ?

Krinkle, you do realize that unlike the HD DVD co ordinated buy, the BD sales was driven by a 50% off on Amazon. So people were responding to an incentive. If Amazon added an HD DVD incentive, we'd see a bigger spike for sure.

Krinkle, you do realize that unlike the HD DVD co ordinated buy, the BD sales was driven by a 50% off on Amazon. So people were responding to an incentive. If Amazon added an HD DVD incentive, we'd see a bigger spike for sure.

But we would agree that for both, it is difficult to speak of a 'trend', no?

(If this is considered a trend, then what are the predictions for 4/24? HD outsells BD 2:1 for the week following 4/24? Hey, I don't bet very often, but I'm willing to take that one :) )

Krinkle, you do realize that unlike the HD DVD co ordinated buy, the BD sales was driven by a 50% off on Amazon. So people were responding to an incentive. If Amazon added an HD DVD incentive, we'd see a bigger spike for sure.

Actually this is not true. They were not 50% off Amazon prices. They were 50% off maximum retail price. It worked out to 15-22% off Amazon's regular price depending on the title.


Still there is an exponential difference between 20 titles in the top 100 and 3 titles in the top 100. An order of magnitude separates the two such that they are not really even comparable.

I agree that HD-DVD is getting a second wind and doing better. I may even pick up a player, just to buy Universal's titles. However everything else I would continue to buy on Blu-ray.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how this affects sales going forward. Will HD-DVD users be spent? Are sales going to drop big time after this burst?

Will this make a substantial difference in Nielsen? My guess: it won't, Blu-ray will still lead Nielsen in spite of the heaviest corrdinated HD-DVD buying ever.

I've tried to use this trick before to figure out Walmart's sales, but it gives very inconsistent results. This may be due to extremely low sales of HD's on Walmart or due to the way they calculate their rankings.

Look at it: POTC and Planet Earth on BD don't even show up in this ranking? But Happy Feet on BD is the highest selling BD title (including pre-orders) ?

BYOE = Bring your Own Explanation ;)

It is what it is. I was actually hoping that one of our industrious coders would start to track this on a regular basis so we could determine what it looks like over time.

Definitely not someone like Beatboy77. Wasn't he the one who said that Blu-ray had "permanently surpassed HD DVD" or something when Blu-ray sales appeared to surpass HD DVD during HD DVD's slow Q1 release schedule? :rolleyes:

It would be plainly silly to suggest that Amazon indicates which format is selling best as it can so easily be manipulated - for both formats (sales, orchestrated buying on a specific date etc.). The Amazon charts do show us which format is selling best on Amazon, for what it's worth.

So for balance we look to a wider sample of the market and an independant source for the data.

According to that source (Nielsen VideoScan) Blu-ray surpassed HD DVD in weekly sales in December and has led every week since. Blu-ray passed HD DVD in lifetimes sales in February and has extended that lead in every week since.

I see precisely nothing that would cause HD DVD to outsell Blu-ray in weekly sales from now until the effective end of the HD DVD format (probably around December of this year. Certainly January when Universal finally accepts defeat).

My challenge, so far unanswered, to HD DVD supporters is to answer this question:

What are the circumstances that will see HD DVD lead Blu-ray in any weekly sales reported by Nielsen for the rest of the year?

I am genuinely curious about what it is that is so hopeful when your format is being beaten YTD by 9:3. It must be something good.

I will keep a record of your replies and we'll see which of us guessed correctly later in the year.

An order of magnitude separates the two such that they are not really even comparable.

This is absurd. One was a SALE -- something that got attention of everyone shopping at Amazon... not just random AVSers.

The other is not a sale. Everything sold today is at normal Amazon price. This is just a grassroots 'buying day'. You have a $70 box set at #8 and a $84 set at #107.


You're right. These are not really even comparable... so, why are you comparing them?

Where does it say HD DVD is being beaten YTD by 9:3? I haven't seen a ratio that high....

It would be plainly silly to suggest that Amazon indicates which format is selling best as it can so easily be manipulated - for both formats (sales, orchestrated buying on a specific date etc.). The Amazon charts do show us which format is selling best on Amazon, for what it's worth.

So for balance we look to a wider sample of the market and an independant source for the data.

According to that source (Nielsen VideoScan) Blu-ray surpassed HD DVD in weekly sales in December and has led every week since. Blu-ray passed HD DVD in lifetimes sales in February and has extended that lead in every week since.

I see precisely nothing that would cause HD DVD to outsell Blu-ray in weekly sales from now until the effective end of the HD DVD format (probably around December of this year. Certainly January when Universal finally accepts defeat).

My challenge, so far unanswered, to HD DVD supporters is to answer this question:

What are the circumstances that will see HD DVD lead Blu-ray in any weekly sales reported by Nielsen for the rest of the year?

I am genuinely curious about what it is that is so hopeful when your format is being beaten YTD by 9:3. It must be something good.

I will keep a record of your replies and we'll see which of us guessed correctly later in the year.

My answer to that would be when the novelty value of the ps3 as a blu-ray player dies off. I.e. when they have finished buying a movie just to try it out. And when the number of dedicated hd-dvd players increases as the prices drop.

You must admit the attach rates for ps3 blu-ray sales are lousy, even this early when they should be at their peak.

Just my opinion as to how hd dvd could catch up, you did ask :p

Regards

John.

bboisvert,

I would be curious to know when you think HD-DVD is going to lead Nielsen sales figures by 2:1 or more?

Since you've got this all figured out, why not go on the record and give us a date?

Where does it say HD DVD is being beaten YTD by 9:3? I haven't seen a ratio that high....
http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/6874/newnielsenco1.jpg (http://img384.imageshack.us/my.php?image=newnielsenco1.jpg)'

More like 7.5:3

http://img384.imageshack.us/img384/6874/newnielsenco1.jpg (http://img384.imageshack.us/my.php?image=newnielsenco1.jpg)'

More like 8:3

Thats 7:3

Regards

John.

To be pricise 6.8:3 correct to two decimal places

OK guys, that's enough, lets keep away from the personal attacks or you will be reported.

I think the format war is pretty much a joke. Most of us refuse to buy Sony's proprietary junk regardless of it winning or not...

What? There is someting on the mnagnitude of 3 million people world wide who have bought into the PS3 format. Sony has plenty of haters but there are also plenty of people who swear by Sony. I can't think of a single sony design that is "junk", SACD was a great format as was Beta, Minidisc and both the PS1 and PS2 and lets not forget the CD.

Look at all their formats that have lost... I guess eventually Sony's bound to get something right but lets be honest about it the PS3 is a hunk of crud. I own it and I'd never use it as a video player and thats the general feelings of just about everyone I know who owns one.



The thing is a joke... the games are a joke.

This is silly, every review I have read on the PS3 has been positive, in fact it just won a product of the year from Home Theater mag. It may be one of the best HD players you can get right now, it loads faster and plays better than any player currently available from BD or HD. The only joke here is this part of your post.

I'd rather stick with SD DVD than go full blown BD. I have a few BD movies and I have about 40 or so HD DVD movies... I just think overall this whole thing is way over blown and that it's waaaaaaaaaaaay to early to tell who's going to win.

I have had plenty of time playing with the PS3 and an A2 and I fond the PS3 to be a better player all around, PQ and AQ are near identical and the useability of the PS3 is much faster and more like a SD player than the A2.

I think it will be interesting to see who hits a mass market push of lower cost HD DVD players or BD players... I'm sure that HD DVD will win that race...

I agree, mass adoption of HD media players will be slow, this is likely why my Best Buy has so many open box A2's right now (people bought them and tried them and decided to stick with SD DVD). HD will reach the lowest price quicker but I doubt either of these formats will out pace SD DVD ever.

Not that anyone cares but Planet Earth on HD-DVD just hit #6 on Amazon.

Not that anyone cares but Planet Earth on HD-DVD just hit #6 on Amazon.

... and now #5 ...

Didn't someone boast on youtube that he would smash his PS3 if a HD DVD came inside top 10 ? Mspeed ... ?
Yes.

He said that he would personally destroy his PS3 here (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10016557&&#post10016557). That will be a fun video to watch. :p

Now it's at #5. I don't think that any Blu-ray title has ever made it this high. The fact that this HD DVD is a box set selling for $70 is certainly causing the BD-exclusive studios to take serious notice.

bboisvert,

I would be curious to know when you think HD-DVD is going to lead Nielsen sales figures by 2:1 or more?

Since you've got this all figured out, why not go on the record and give us a date?

krinkle -- I love how you just change the subject whenever it suits you.

I haven't discussed Nielsen figures at all. Not once. So where, exactly, do you get the impression that I've "got this all figured out"?

My point was that comparing a 50% off sale on BD to a day when there's no sale on HD DVD is not an accurate comparison. That's it.

I haven't discussed Nielsen figures at all. Not once.
I find this statement very ironic considering the title of this thread.

It is amazing what a crapfest this thread has become. :(