Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 [Text View] - Page 20

fozziwig

04-16-07, 04:11 AM

Except that most people who pre-ordered those titles, like me, have no intention of cancelling them.

Bit of hassle involved in ordering and cancelling. Most people aren't going through the hassle of doing it.

Your mindless expectations are just projections......

You're right, it's a horribly complex process:

Cancel Items from an Order

You can cancel your order for any item sold by Amazon.com, provided that the order has not yet entered the shipping process.

......

Once you've reached the order summary, click the "Need to cancel an item?" button. On the next page, click the checkbox next to any item you want to cancel. Be sure to click the "Cancel checked items" button when you are finished.

You actually have to click on some buttons?!! No way is anyone going to go through the hassle of doing that. :rolleyes:

In truth nobody can say if this HD DVD Amazon assault consists of mainly genuine orders or phantom pre-orders, but logically, Planet Earth should be the top selling title on HD DVD in its release week by a very long way if the Amazon chart is representative of real life.

I think we should be grateful that the HD DVD supporters have taken this action, because when the set of Nielsen data comes out that covers these days come out we will see exactly what effect Amazon (or more accurately, the Amazon chart) has on the whole market data.

If you want to know what Amazon really thinks about the relative popularity of the two formats check the in-stock figures. Currently around 57,000 Blu-ray and 15,000 HD DVD.

SyHD

04-16-07, 04:12 AM

rdjam

04-16-07, 04:18 AM

rdjam

04-16-07, 04:21 AM

This is hilarious - HD DVD is kicking butt again and certain folks come out with "oh, but they might cancel!" :p

fozziwig

04-16-07, 04:23 AM

Thats clear from the 90 day graphs on hd game db.

Yesterday's efforts just pulled HD DVD up another plateu, but Blu-ray hasn't been as dominant since 3/18.

BTW, anyone notice that 3/18 is the ending date on the complete 2007 Nielson/Videoscan data Sony leaked/released to the press.

Gee, looking at those charts, I wonder why Sony choose that ending date.

Nielsen do not leak data. Companies who want to use it buy it.

If you are interested in using Amazon charts to suggest trends then try using a larger sample of products - say top 25 or 50 or even 100. What does that show?

Using top 10's is not a good way of illustrating trends for the wider market because it will always weigh heavily towards a small number of highly active titles. Using a larger pool of titles dilutes this effect and gives a clearer picture of trends.

Grubert

04-16-07, 04:28 AM

Friendly reminder:

This is the Nielsen VideoScan thread. In other words, actual sales reported thread. ;)

rdjam

04-16-07, 04:30 AM

Using top 10's is not a good way of illustrating trends for the wider market because it will always weigh heavily towards a small number of highly active titles. Using a larger pool of titles dilutes this effect and gives a clearer picture of trends.
BD got their buhind kicked in the Top 100 too:

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/Top100Sales90Amazon.png

rdjam

04-16-07, 04:31 AM

Friendly reminder:

This is the Nielsen VideoScan thread. In other words, actual sales reported thread. ;)
Nice try at censorship.

This is fresh info that precedes the weekly info from Videoscan.

It's very relevant to forecasting what may show in Videoscan.

Videoscan won't report this for 10 days.

fozziwig

04-16-07, 04:35 AM

BD got their buhind kicked in the Top 100 too:

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/Top100Sales90Amazon.png

I did say to look at the trend prior to the buying spree. :rolleyes:

Thanks for illustrating my point, which was to say there was NO trend to HD DVD before the orchestrated 'protest' on Amazon.

rdjam

04-16-07, 04:37 AM

I did say to look at the trend prior to the buying spree. :rolleyes:

Thanks for illustrating my point, which was to say there was NO trend to HD DVD before the orchestrated 'protest' on Amazon.
Then you're obviously not looking very closely after the 24th of March ;)

BtW - what 'protest' :confused: oh, I see - yah yah - trying to turn a birthday celebration into a protest now? :p

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/eWars1030.jpg

chad_cincy

04-16-07, 04:38 AM

http://www.mrdowling.com/images/604nile.jpg :D

SyHD

04-16-07, 04:42 AM

You're clutching at straws a bit if your hoping to convince folks that these orders aren't real and that most are going to cancel. If one or two cancel, such is life, but that would happen with ANY sales at ANY time - so it's clearly not an issue.

BTW - eproductwars view: you can see that this didn't just happen today - bluray has been crusing for a bruising for a few weeks now - today was just the slamdunk effect :)

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/eWars1030.jpg

You are accusing me of clutching at straws? ROFL :D

Sorry dude ...I am NOT the one touting a manipulated sale "surge" that coincidentally won't last next week.

Grubert

04-16-07, 04:50 AM

Sorry for leaving the followup of this pending for the weekend.

HD DVD titles that have sold over 10,000 copies since inception to March 18:

Departed - 38,993
Batman Begins - 34,313
Superman Returns - 28,440
Mission Impossible 3 - 17,537
Serenity - 17,755
Goodfellas - 17,504
Troy - 16,229
Last Samurai - 15,799
Apollo 13 - 14,316
Bourne Supremacy - 12,965
V for Vendetta - 12,800
Polar Express - 12,184
Miami Vice - 11,355
Training Day - 10,714
Phantom of the Opera - 10,518
Fearless - 10,004

There you go with your facts again, G.

Why can't you just argue with assumptions and opinion like the rest of us? ;)

Well whether or not it was intended, thanks for backing me up. :)

Hopefully this will settle it, but I have my doubts.

Day-and-date titles: Superman Returns, Mission Impossible 3, Polar Express, Miami Vice, Fearless.

First wave titles: Serenity, Phantom of the Opera, Last Samurai, Apollo 13. BTW Million Dollar Baby and Doom also released then, but didn't sell so well for different reasons (MDB has no eye-candy and Doom is a terrible movie).

Training Day and Goodfellas also came out pretty early.

Batman Begins, Troy, Bourne Supremacy, V for Vendetta were all recent A-list titles (though not day-and-date). Also to note that all of them have PiP and/or lossless audio, so that may be a selling point (but then again, so did Dukes of Hazzard ;) ).

fozziwig

04-16-07, 05:32 AM

Then you're obviously not looking very closely after the 24th of March ;)

BtW - what 'protest' :confused: oh, I see - yah yah - trying to turn a birthday celebration into a protest now? :p

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/eWars1030.jpg

Wrong again! Now, you've gone back to posting a top 10 chart which is a poor guide to indicating trends - as I'm sure you are aware.

Here's the top 100.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/salesrank100-1-1-recent30.jpg

Prior to the "birthday celebration" there was no trend to HD DVD. We see a burst of activity at the end of March as it was the first time in 4 weeks when new HD DVD titles became available but since then nothing much.

Face it, this is a 1 week wonder (if you're lucky) but Nielsen will restore some normality when they report on Friday (although we may not get the full data for Sunday until the following week).

bsk4life

04-16-07, 08:14 AM

Nice try at censorship.

This is fresh info that precedes the weekly info from Videoscan.

It's very relevant to forecasting what may show in Videoscan.

Videoscan won't report this for 10 days.
The pre-orders, which apparently are a big part of this upswing on the amazon chart, are not reported by Videoscan. Amazon is not necessarily a good indicator of what will happen in the Videoscan numbers as we've seen in the past. I think the Blu-ray 50% off sale was a good indicator of this. Not to mention these charts are showing the sales rank of particular discs on Amazon and we have no idea how many have sold or been pre-ordered. Grubert is not trying to censor anybody, he's just making a, probably futile, effort of getting this once great thread back on track.

I'm curious, do those that are posting constantly about this big climb on the amazon ranking charts think there will also be a big decline by HD DVD on those same charts? If there is, will you also be constantly posting as the charts show any decline and give constant updates as particular items move down in rank?

skogan

04-16-07, 11:00 AM

Friendly reminder:

This is the Nielsen VideoScan thread. In other words, actual sales reported thread. ;)

Right on. I don't know why we need to have this amazon talk when we so much better data in the first place. Amazon is as likely to mislead as to inform, the VS numbers should be what we look at, especially in this thread.

skogan

04-16-07, 11:03 AM

Nice try at censorship.

This is fresh info that precedes the weekly info from Videoscan.

It's very relevant to forecasting what may show in Videoscan.

Videoscan won't report this for 10 days.

Amazon numbers are nearly useless, in my opinion. Before we had VS, they were the best indicator we had. But now, there's no point in looking at them, really.

gosawx

04-16-07, 11:45 AM

http://www.mrdowling.com/images/604nile.jpg :D

The trend is obvious now... :D

Kosty

04-16-07, 11:55 AM

Kosty ...you personally won't cancel your orders but how can you speak for others? We don't know the rate in which people cancel pre-orders or their true intent with the pre-orders. It isn't any surprise why Nielsen does not count pre-orders ...they are not actual sales. Human nature goes with inertia.

Contrary to the conspiracy theories of some of you guys, the buy was genuine and no real effort was made to inflate the numbers in the ways you blu folks are implying.

No one said, buy the $70 box set (instead of 4 or 5 other titles :rolleyes: ) or detailed procedures or even mentioned to pre-order to maximize the stats.

Most people will follow through and buy their pre-orders, its human nature. that's why people don't return rebate forms.

I think it just shows the relatively small volumes involved and how little effort it takes to change sales numbers, and how close the format war still is.

Now I understand that not the news some Blu-ray fan bois want to here on how the war is not over, but the closing Nielson/Videoscan numbers, the DVD empire stats for the last couple weeks and the new Amazon stats and reports of HD A2 sales all give evidence in some degree to a shift in HD DVD's sales momentum.

All coming as I predicted in the second quarter.

Kosty

04-16-07, 11:58 AM

http://www.mrdowling.com/images/604nile.jpg :D De Nile is a river in Egypt? :D

nataraj

04-16-07, 12:10 PM

Amazon numbers are nearly useless, in my opinion. Before we had VS, they were the best indicator we had. But now, there's no point in looking at them, really.

It will be interesting to see if this will have any perceptible impact on Nielsen figures.

It seems yesterday's planned buy might have generated a couple of thousand sales. If that is the case, it is not difficult to see why it would not affect weekly sales in a major way (just 10% of total).

Sketcha

04-16-07, 12:19 PM

Sketcha

04-16-07, 12:21 PM

If that is the case, it is not difficult to see why it would not affect weekly sales in a major way (just 10% of total).
Is this sentence structured the way you meant it to be?

chad_cincy

04-16-07, 12:23 PM

I was begining to wonder if anyone got it. :) Just my attempt to bring some light humor to the bickering. ;)

To bring some bickering back to the light humor... As I stated before, I still do not believe the entire surge is from the coordinated buy. There was a much bigger surge in March, which has been sustained, that the coordinated buy cannot account for. I think it is a combination of the coordinated buy effort and the recent player sales. It'll be interesting to see the latest VS numbers, nonetheless.

Although I cetainly admit it puts the entire scale of both HD DVD and BD sales into perspective. That said, I wonder what the effect of the PS3 really is, given the number of consoles sold? I won't speculate further, as this isn't the appropriate thread for it.

Kosty

04-16-07, 12:36 PM

Right on. I don't know why we need to have this amazon talk when we so much better data in the first place. Amazon is as likely to mislead as to inform, the VS numbers should be what we look at, especially in this thread Well selected use of the Nielson/Videoscan data , like Sony releasing the data thru March 18th, before HD DVD starts to rebound in sales and release movies is just as "likely to mislead as inform" except that is direct PR manipulation by a company trying to skew the discussion to its advantage.

Changing data from final weekly data to first alert data, the week of a milestone event in surpassing sales of a competing format is also suspicious. Continuing to use that incomplete data also is possibly as "likely to mislead as inform".

The Amazon tracking, when Blu-ray is leading or when HD DVD is leading gives us additional clues , trends and leading indications. The Nielson/Videoscan data is more complete, but it is still flawed at these low volumes, and missing Wal-Mart and other niche retailers selling HD players. The Amazon data is single source, but we have it near real time. DVD empire data, when finalized for the week now seems to be a consistent data set. Together all of these sources together as well as the occasional press release, interview , article or presentation give us more information. Together they give us a better picture.

The use of only the Nielson/Videoscan data alone at these sales volumes would be flawed.

Amazon numbers are nearly useless, in my opinion. Before we had VS, they were the best indicator we had. But now, there's no point in looking at them, really. . BS Just because you don't like the data does not mean it is not relevent to this discussion. Combined with the Nielson data, it tells even more than the N/V data alone. Plus it gives us information real time, the quickest we now get N/V is weeks later and that only the deliberately incomplete first alert data. Take the Amazon data as a leading indicator or clue to the more comprehensive N.V set of data. But we are deliberately being withheld the final weekly data now, and don't have access to the more accurate final weekly data since the Sony released March 19th dataset.

Plus we have Amazon data going back for over a year on one site and since near the start of the year on another. It can help put things into perspective.

The Amazon tracking sites give daily information which although flawed still gives significant trends, early indicators and specific title information. It roughly correlates with the Nielson data.

No reason not to talk about it if it gives daily context to the weekly numbers from Nielson.

The Nielson numbers are not fully indicative when they give us only the partial First Alert numbers and we don't have the final numbers until weeks later, if then.

You should put the Amazon numbers in context, but they are a valid point of discussion. Plus the charting options put rough sales trends, as verified by Nielson into perspective.

BTW, If you look at the Amazon tracking for more than 60 days, it clearly shows that HD DVD decreased the sales gap in the weeks after March 19th, ( the day after the Sony released Nielson/Videoscan numbers) Sony obviously choose the release date to maximize the sales gap shown.

If we were not looking at the Amazon data to show trends, now starting to be verified by Nielson/Videoscan weeks later, we would be victims of Sony propaganda of a selective data release.

All of these data points are tools, and have some validity and are worthy of discussion.

One of the key points shown, even in this AVS April 15th HD DVD Anniversary buy, is that the volumes are so low that even a unorganized buy can have some effect on the Amazon numbers, and maybe if confirmed on the Nielson reporting.

If that's the case, then the format war is far from over as even a small bit of effort can improve HD DVD sales.

It's funny how some of the biggest supporters (not only in this thread) will discount any data when it is unfavorable to their case, and embrace it when it shows in their favor. That hypocrisy in the extreme.

I agree that a one day spike in Amazon is not significant in itself, but what is significant is the same significance that was shown in the release of the Sony Nielson/Videoscan data:

That is : that the sales gap between the two formats is small enough in real numbers that small incentives or any marketing programs can have a significant effect on the sales ratios.

In addition, the Blu-ray propaganda bluster of the format war being over in the 1st quarter, was based on sales ratios using small volumes of sales and the PS 3 did not deliver a knockout blow.

HD DVD is not dead, the format war is still alive and the BDA's tactic of using the PS3 launch, sales incentives in the low volume 1st quarter sales period to highlight the sales gap and end the format war has failed.

HD DVD is increasing its sales of hardware players in the normal increased period of consumer electronic spending, out of the traditional winter sales slump.

HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are using well tested proving marketing and advertising principles to market and sell a competitive product that is being produced at greater numbers and sold for lower cost than its competition.

Sony and the BDA are trying an unproven tactic of having a gaming console, having trouble in its own market, and with its own sales as the adoption vehicle for its own format with the use of secondary to that product capability of HD disc playback.

HD DVD is executing well tested theories and practices for a major product roll out. Blu-ray is gambling on untested methods in hopes of a early win.

What all these sales sites and data points are showing is that the window for a rapid Blu-ray win is slipping away, and that HD DVD is showing increased competitiveness and that HD DVD is over time increasing its chances of survival and is steadily increasing it chances of possible long term sales dominance.

edit: deleted name of quoted poster

SyHD

04-16-07, 12:40 PM

plazman

04-16-07, 12:45 PM

Kudos to all of those that filled up this "Neilsen" thread with "Amazon group buy" charts and banter rather than posting it in the group buy thread where it belongs. I'm so glad I didn't miss out on any of this, oh-so-relevant information.

In all seriousness, I'm very happy for you that you were able to rally up and get this done; very impressive. I truly hope you enjoyed your moment.BTW, for any of you that are not able to grasp the obvious, it's a bit more difficult to rally those on the winning side. There is a lack of motivation. Kind of a "who gives a $hit" sort of thing. Also that thread was hijacked just as soon as it was started.

But again, kudos.

Yes, the moment I will remember is that someone at AVS set up this event and the voluntary participation resulted in an HD title achieving a top 5 rank on Amazon for the first time ever :D

Lee Heytow

04-16-07, 12:47 PM

SyHD,

Isn't that a chart of quantities in stock and not of quantities sold. That would say to me that Amazon is choking on stuff they can't move

plazman

04-16-07, 12:48 PM

I am sorry for having to post one last graph about the April 15th Bubble, but hopefully this will be it. Blu-ray actually outsold HD DVD during the bubble. Blu-ray moved more actual copies. How ironic!

http://img238.imageshack.us/img238/3583/stockmf4.gif

Do you have insider info on stock replishment and sales on Amazon? Looking at that chart does not tell you how many units were actually sold.

However, that graph does show BD inventory is building up - perhaps excess stuff sent by Sony to pump up their 'shipped' numbers. Wonder how many other retailers have such bloated inventory? ;)

Sketcha

04-16-07, 12:50 PM

Yes, the moment I will remember is that someone at AVS set up this event and the voluntary participation resulted in an HD title achieving a top 5 rank on Amazon for the first time ever :D
Yes. Nice work! For one day you almost made HD DVD sales look like Blu-ray's do without effort. ;)

fulcizombie

04-16-07, 12:52 PM

plazman

04-16-07, 01:01 PM

Yes. Nice work! For one day you almost made HD DVD sales look like Blu-ray's do without effort. ;)

Really? which BD title reached #5?

Also, since 3/27 HD DVD top 10 graph has been tracking pretty close to BD. http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

Alan Gordon

04-16-07, 01:01 PM

I came in here to catch up on reading this thread which I find so interesting... and decided it may not be worth it.

It's turned into a "my school is better than your school" kindergarten mentality thread...

~Alan

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:04 PM

SyHD,

Isn't that a chart of quantities in stock and not of quantities sold. That would say to me that Amazon is choking on stuff they can't move

You can see the change in stock ..thus the big red circle. :D I thought I made that very clear.

Kosty

04-16-07, 01:06 PM

Kudos to all of those that filled up this "Neilsen" thread with "Amazon group buy" charts and banter rather than posting it in the group buy thread where it belongs. I'm so glad I didn't miss out on any of this, oh-so-relevant information.

In all seriousness, I'm very happy for you that you were able to rally up and get this done; very impressive. I truly hope you enjoyed your moment.

BTW, for any of you that are not able to grasp the obvious, it's a bit more difficult to rally those on the winning side. There is a lack of motivation. Kind of a "who gives a $hit" sort of thing. Also that thread was hijacked just as soon as it was started.

But again, kudos. You of all people talking about taking this thread off topic?

The Amazon tracking discussion at least has some validity as an early indicator to the N/V data, plus it tells us some general things that are later validated by N/V.

But N/V , and first alert data, by itself can be flawed at these low sales volumes.

The Amazon buy, just again highlighted how low those volumes are at this point, in additional to the low numbers tracked on the released N/V data.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10312919&&#post10312919

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:09 PM

Do you have insider info on stock replishment and sales on Amazon? Looking at that chart does not tell you how many units were actually sold.

However, that graph does show BD inventory is building up - perhaps excess stuff sent by Sony to pump up their 'shipped' numbers. Wonder how many other retailers have such bloated inventory? ;)

I did looked at a more detailed graph and it showed no upward bump in stock. Do you see any? I am assuming they do not add stock to their computer system on Sundays and all the graphs that I looked at indicated such. You know darn well retailers don't stock products unless they think they could sell them.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:12 PM

I am sorry for having to post one last graph about the April 15th Bubble, but hopefully this will be it. Blu-ray actually outsold HD DVD during the bubble. Blu-ray moved more actual copies. How ironic!

http://img238.imageshack.us/img238/3583/stockmf4.gif
Err, that looks like the "quantity in stock" chart, bubba.

Everyone has lots of stock because someone in the BDA said they'd sell it.

Your chart proves they ain't moving... :p

Kosty

04-16-07, 01:13 PM

I revised my litttle 11:36 rant 10 posts above.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10312919&&#post10312919

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:15 PM

Do you have insider info on stock replishment and sales on Amazon? Looking at that chart does not tell you how many units were actually sold.

However, that graph does show BD inventory is building up - perhaps excess stuff sent by Sony to pump up their 'shipped' numbers. Wonder how many other retailers have such bloated inventory? ;)

I did looked at a more detailed graph and it showed no upward bump in stock. Do you see any? I am assuming they do not add stock to their computer system on Sundays and all the graphs that I looked at indicated such. You can't tell how many units were actually sold but you can see which side has a higher rate of units sold. You know darn well retailers don't stock products unless they think they could sell them.

Grubert

04-16-07, 01:15 PM

The Amazon tracking discussion at least has some validity as an early indicator to the N/V data, plus it tells us some general things that are later validated by N/V.

Wrongo! For example during the first half of January HD DVD outsold BD in average ranking of top 10 titles - but actual sales were clearly in BD's favour.

Dump the amazon rankings. They don't belong here.

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:16 PM

Err, that looks like the "quantity in stock" chart, bubba.

Everyone has lots of stock because someone in the BDA said they'd sell it.

Your chart proves they ain't moving... :p

Here ...I give you a clue ...look inside the red circle. Which side has steeper declining slope?

plazman

04-16-07, 01:19 PM

I did looked at a more detailed graph and it showed no upward bump in stock. Do you see any? I am assuming they do not add stock to their computer system on Sundays and all the graphs that I looked at indicated such. You know darn well retailers don't stock products unless they think they could sell them.

between 4/09 and 4/13 the HD DVD graph has an upward slope. So they weren't selling any HD DVD it would appear based on that graph!

Why are you posting a graph that shows something different from what you are trying to tell. A sell thru graph cannot have an upward slope as your chart shows :eek:

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:20 PM

plazman

04-16-07, 01:20 PM

Here ...I give you a clue ...look inside the red circle. Which side has steeper declining slope?

Look outside your circle to see that your graph does not prove what you are claiming. You can't be serious by basing your argument on that chart. This is 4th grade common sense stuff!

bsk4life

04-16-07, 01:21 PM

The Amazon tracking discussion at least has some validity as an early indicator to the N/V data, plus it tells us some general things that are later validated by N/V.

But N/V , and first alert data, by itself can be flawed at these low sales volumes.

The Amazon buy, just again highlighted how low those volumes are at this point, in additional to the low numbers tracked on the released N/V data.
But if the Amazon numbers are so easily manipulated, are we sure that they are a valid indicator of the Videoscan numbers? If we don't see this big spike in the Videoscan numbers later, perhaps then it will help us see if the Amazon charts are relevant. That's what I thought would be the interesting thing about the April 15th effort. I wanted to see what kind of impact it would have on Amazon's charts, which we can see is great, and how that correlates to N/V. I was hoping that it would not lead to a lot of posturing and unnecessary boasting, especially in this thread.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:22 PM

Wrong again! Now, you've gone back to posting a top 10 chart which is a poor guide to indicating trends - as I'm sure you are aware.

Here's the top 100.You're link is broken, so here it is.

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/Top100Sales90Amazon.png

Prior to the "birthday celebration" there was no trend to HD DVD.I'm going to be polite and call you mistaken. It started 3/24 and it can clearly be seen in every chart. You are only picking the Top 100 because it shows the least there - but you look rather foolish trying to deny it when everyone can see with their own eyes.

http://www.campaignhd.com/images/eWars1030.jpg

We see a burst of activity at the end of March as it was the first time in 4 weeks when new HD DVD titles became available but since then nothing much.So in one breath you say it isn't there and in the next you admit it? :p

Yes, you are getting the point now - Given that there are now new releases to buy, we are seeing the true strength of the HD DVD market once again. When there was a paucity of releases early in the year, there were fewer sales, because mainly only new Player owners were buying, since most HD DVD owners have been in the market longer and owned much of what was already available.

This is not hard to grasp, is it?

Face it, this is a 1 week wonder (if you're lucky) but Nielsen will restore some normality when they report on Friday (although we may not get the full data for Sunday until the following week).Face it, Your Wrong....

You have just yourself admitted that the HD DVD increases are because new releases are back in the market - you can't have it both ways - the spaghetti is either in your mouth or on the wall ;)

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:22 PM

between 4/09 and 4/13 the HD DVD graph has an upward slope. So they weren't selling any HD DVD it would appear based on that graph!

Why are you posting a graph that shows something different from what you are trying to tell. A sell thru graph cannot have an upward slope as your chart shows :eek:

It has a upward slope BECAUSE Amazon added stock. Duh.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:25 PM

Here ...I give you a clue ...look inside the red circle. Which side has steeper declining slope?
Absolutely irrelevant.

You are again pointing to the BD sales bubble during the "50% sale"

No one is disputing that BD outsold HD DVD during that period, so what are you trying to prove? Your use of the chart was deceptive, since by showing a large difference, you hope the less informed would take it to mean the magnitude by which it out sold.

However, all you are doing is distracting from "today's conversation" which is that BD is in number two place.

Live in the past all you want, posting graphs from then to try to argue against now is a waste of time IMHO :)

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:26 PM

Look outside your circle to see that your graph does not prove what you are claiming. You can't be serious by basing your argument on that chart. This is 4th grade common sense stuff!

Fourth grade common sense? Its a graph of stock on hand at Amazon. When Amazon add stocks, the slope will be upwards if its more than the rate of sales. The slope will go downwards if the rate of sale is greater than the rate of restocking.

Grubert

04-16-07, 01:27 PM

Back to topic

The new issue of Home Media Magazine is officially up:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom041507/

Initial posts updated.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:27 PM

It has a upward slope BECAUSE Amazon added stock. Duh.
So Amazon doesn't add stock for HD DVD also? :p

This is rich.. :)

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:28 PM

Dot50Cal

04-16-07, 01:28 PM

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:28 PM

So Amazon doesn't add stock for HD DVD also? :p

This is rich.. :)

Did I say Amazon does not add stock to HD DVD? Do you have a hard time reading graphs? Apparently so.

PSound

04-16-07, 01:29 PM

Perhaps Amazon returned some excess BD stock to their distributor. Based on the overall sales volume, having 50k-60k discs in a warehouse seems pretty high.

Kosty

04-16-07, 01:30 PM

Wrongo! For example during the first half of January HD DVD outsold BD in average ranking of top 10 titles - but actual sales were clearly in BD's favour.

Dump the amazon rankings. They don't belong here.

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx

For the first two weeks, Amazon there was different, but it quickly corrected itself and its been quite consistent. I still contend that the Amazon data combined with the Nielson/Videoscan dat agives a more complete picture and is a check on the selective use of teh Nielson/Videoscan numbers which can have their own methodology flaws at this level of sales volume.

A direct question to you Grubert....

Recently , you seem to me to be quite defensive of any criticism and more and more seemingly supportive of Blu-ray, which has been a change from your past format more neutral ways.

Did you have an epiphany?

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:35 PM

I revised my litttle 11:36 rant 10 posts above.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10312919&&#post10312919
I agree.

e_professor

04-16-07, 01:35 PM

Regarding the movement of stocks during April 15 HD DVD buying spree, I believe that there were more pre-orders for upcoming HD DVD titles than actual-day sales (for titles already released).

Which might explain the greater movement of stocks for Blu-ray (probably a "counterattack") than HD DVD during this period while rankings of HD DVD titles kept moving up. So give it a month or two, and see how those pre-orders for April, May and June titles reflects in actual sales.

So I presume more Blu-ray titles available now are in "demand" than upcoming titles, maybe Fox's retraction of all its upcoming titles have resulted in "lower demand" (less pre-orders) for upcoming BD titles?

fronn

04-16-07, 01:36 PM

Absolutely irrelevant.

You are again pointing to the BD sales bubble during the "50% sale"

No one is disputing that BD outsold HD DVD during that period, so what are you trying to prove? Your use of the chart was deceptive, since by showing a large difference, you hope the less informed would take it to mean the magnitude by which it out sold.

However, all you are doing is distracting from "today's conversation" which is that BD is in number two place.

Live in the past all you want, posting graphs from then to try to argue against now is a waste of time IMHO :)
It appears you aren't reading that chart correctly, as it's from this last week and shows BR's stock declining more than HD DVDs, which would imply more sales -- not sure how Amazon handles their stocking, so it doesn't really prove much either way... but what's on that chart has nothing to do with the "50% sale"

And I'm not quite sure saying BD is in number two place is correct -- it may be #2 for 4/15 on amazon, but not likely at all retailers for that day and not likely at all retailers this month (or amazon this month even).

I can only imagine you are intentionally being disingenuous in your posting, which is pretty terrible in itself, but at least you'd have the mental capacity for change. I don't know if you actually believe the things you say and post or if you think this is all just funny (in which case, you can parody with the best!), but it's getting kind of scary reading your posts lately.

SyHD

04-16-07, 01:38 PM

Regarding the movement of stocks during April 15 HD DVD buying spree, I believe that there were more pre-orders for upcoming HD DVD titles than actual-day sales (for titles already released).

Which might explain the greater movement of stocks for Blu-ray (probably a "counterattack") than HD DVD during this period while rankings of HD DVD titles kept moving up.

So I presume more Blu-ray titles available now are in "demand" than upcoming titles, maybe Fox's retraction of all its upcoming titles have resulted in "lower demand" (less pre-orders) for upcoming BD titles?

Thank you for taking the time to actually read the graph. Thats all I was trying to say. If you take away the pre-orders, Blu-ray sold more titles than HD DVD on the April 15th Bubble.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:40 PM

Wrongo! For example during the first half of January HD DVD outsold BD in average ranking of top 10 titles - but actual sales were clearly in BD's favour.

Dump the amazon rankings. They don't belong here.
Again, that was because new owners in the BD market (mainly PS3 owners) were buying everything on the shelves.

As opposed to the large installed base of HD DVD owners that had already bought much of what was previously available.

It's not hard to understand.

Now that the initial surge of PS3 owners has had their pick of existing titles, they are starting to exhibit the same buying patterns as an existing user base.

Therefore, while the Top Ten was less relevant in January with an unusually high percentage of new BD owners in the market, the Top Ten is once more becoming the relevant measure.

If both user bases continue to grow at an equivalent rate, the Top Ten, Top 25 , Top 50 and Top 100 charts will start to look more and more similar.

If HD DVD is outselling BD players for the next three months, you will see a shift the other way, where Top 100 will be stronger for HD DVD than BD.

For now, the BD strength in the Top 100 chart is STILL only a reflection of the PS3 influx from christmas and the BD lead in this chart will fade over the next 3 months.

[insert knee-jerk response of disagreement here...]

asj2006

04-16-07, 01:41 PM

Wrongo! For example during the first half of January HD DVD outsold BD in average ranking of top 10 titles - but actual sales were clearly in BD's favour.

Dump the amazon rankings. They don't belong here.

This used to be a thread with ACTUAL numbers (well, at least ratios and calculated numbers), now we get flaming going on as well....me, ill just wait for icemage's stats.... :)

Kosty

04-16-07, 01:43 PM

But if the Amazon numbers are so easily manipulated, are we sure that they are a valid indicator of the Videoscan numbers? If we don't see this big spike in the Videoscan numbers later, perhaps then it will help us see if the Amazon charts are relevant. That's what I thought would be the interesting thing about the April 15th effort. I wanted to see what kind of impact it would have on Amazon's charts, which we can see is great, and how that correlates to N/V. I was hoping that it would not lead to a lot of posturing and unnecessary boasting, especially in this thread. That is exactly what I wanted to see.

If the spike in Amazon from April 15th would show in the Nielson/Videoscan numbers over time.

Sorry, if my posts seemed like posturing.

Just got my fur up I guess. :o

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:43 PM

Did I say Amazon does not add stock to HD DVD? Do you have a hard time reading graphs? Apparently so.
You made an excuse that BD stock actually went up because of new stock. Yet somehow you don't seem to think that applies to HD DVD also.

If you look you can clearly see HD DVD stock went up also - unless you have cataracts. ;)

Grubert

04-16-07, 01:44 PM

I shan't let you derail this into a character debate regarding myself. Boo to you.

The point is, ever since I opened this thread in late January, what counts and is under analysis and discussion is actual sales information from Nielsen VideoScan.

Other sources (dvdempire, amazon) have always been tangential references at best.

Devoting a huge number of posts to amazon exactly when there is an orchestrated purchase drive is partisan at best.

Sketcha

04-16-07, 01:44 PM

You of all people talking about taking this thread off topic?

The Amazon tracking discussion at least has some validity as an early indicator to the N/V data, plus it tells us some general things that are later validated by N/V.

But N/V , and first alert data, by itself can be flawed at these low sales volumes.

The Amazon buy, just again highlighted how low those volumes are at this point, in additional to the low numbers tracked on the released N/V data.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10312919&&#post10312919
"I must've hit it pretty close to the mark to get (you) all riled up like that eh...?"

Ouch, dude!

I think if you examine my posts carefully, you will find that I rarely "take" this thread off topic. I do respond to posts that I feel require a response, however and yes, some of those posts had already gone off topic. That said, I am happy to say that you almost never go off topic on this thread and your posts are very often informative, and often much more so than mine.

As for the rest of your post above, I'll let Grubert's post #4830 speak to it. Justify it all you wish, but gloating over an Amazon group buy, on this thread is not to topic.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:46 PM

He isnt comparing how Blu-ray has 4x more in stock, hes showing that the decline (sales) in stock has gone down MORE during your HD-DVD buy day than HD-DVD has. Thus, Blu-ray sold more units during your buying spree.

Why that was so hard to see for you two, I dont know. It was quite obvious to me.
And THAT's the problem.

Bluray did NOT outsell HD DVD during the anniversary buy, as any sighted person can quite PLAINLY see from the relevant charts.

The use of this stock chart to try to make a case that BD outsold HD here is LEWDICHRIS :D

Geez, what's so hard to understand about that :cool:

Kosty

04-16-07, 01:47 PM

Again, that was because new owners in the BD market (mainly PS3 owners) were buying everything on the shelves.

As opposed to the large installed base of HD DVD owners that had already bought much of what was previously available.

It's not hard to understand.

Now that the initial surge of PS3 owners has had their pick of existing titles, they are starting to exhibit the same buying patterns as an existing user base.

Therefore, while the Top Ten was less relevant in January with an unusually high percentage of new BD owners in the market, the Top Ten is once more becoming the relevant measure.

If both user bases continue to grow at an equivalent rate, the Top Ten, Top 25 , Top 50 and Top 100 charts will start to look more and more similar.

If HD DVD is outselling BD players for the next three months, you will see a shift the other way, where Top 100 will be stronger for HD DVD than BD.

For now, the BD strength in the Top 100 chart is STILL only a reflection of the PS3 influx from christmas and the BD lead in this chart will fade over the next 3 months.

[insert knee-jerk response of disagreement here...] That is an obvious explanation that explains why the first couple weeks of Amazon tracking did not correspond with the Nielson /Videoscan numbers as teh huge influx of PS3 owners probably bought most of their Blu-ray discs at B & M locations nea rthe time of inititl purchase. Plus the PS3 in box coupons required trotting down to a B& M retailer for their $10 off redemption.

But as time goes on, and volumes increase, both the Amazon tracking and Nielson/Videoscan tracking will gain more validity as sales volumes increase over their current pygmy levels.

Dot50Cal

04-16-07, 01:48 PM

It appears you aren't reading that chart correctly, as it's from this last week and shows BR's stock declining more than HD DVDs, which would imply more sales -- not sure how Amazon handles their stocking, so it doesn't really prove much either way... but what's on that chart has nothing to do with the "50% sale"

And I'm not quite sure saying BD is in number two place is correct -- it may be #2 for 4/15 on amazon, but not likely at all retailers for that day and not likely at all retailers this month (or amazon this month even).

I can only imagine you are intentionally being disingenuous in your posting, which is pretty terrible in itself, but at least you'd have the mental capacity for change. I don't know if you actually believe the things you say and post or if you think this is all just funny (in which case, you can parody with the best!), but it's getting kind of scary reading your posts lately.

Agree with this entirely. Excellent post, you hit the nail right on the head.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:48 PM

It appears you aren't reading that chart correctly, as it's from this last week and shows BR's stock declining more than HD DVDs, which would imply more sales -- not sure how Amazon handles their stocking, so it doesn't really prove much either way... but what's on that chart has nothing to do with the "50% sale"

And I'm not quite sure saying BD is in number two place is correct -- it may be #2 for 4/15 on amazon, but not likely at all retailers for that day and not likely at all retailers this month (or amazon this month even).

I can only imagine you are intentionally being disingenuous in your posting, which is pretty terrible in itself, but at least you'd have the mental capacity for change. I don't know if you actually believe the things you say and post or if you think this is all just funny (in which case, you can parody with the best!), but it's getting kind of scary reading your posts lately.
It's the USE of the chart I contested. The chart is what it is. The SALES charts are what they are.

There is no debate at all that HD DVD has outsold BD here.

It's rather ridiculous the amount of effort being expended to try to argue with that simple FACT.

BrynRhys

04-16-07, 01:49 PM

Back to topic

The new issue of Home Media Magazine is officially up:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom041507/

Initial posts updated.

Thanks, Grubert.

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:51 PM

This used to be a thread with ACTUAL numbers (well, at least ratios and calculated numbers), now we get flaming going on as well....me, ill just wait for icemage's stats.... :)
We "are" discussing numbers.

Just, perhaps, not the ones you want?

plazman

04-16-07, 01:51 PM

Fourth grade common sense? Its a graph of stock on hand at Amazon. When Amazon add stocks, the slope will be upwards if its more than the rate of sales. The slope will go downwards if the rate of sale is greater than the rate of restocking.

So if you sell 200 units and receive 175, the graph goes down by 25. So you are saying this should count for 25 sales!

So unless you know what the inflow was, you cannot determine the outflow by looking at the change in slope. So, when that line shows an upward slope, it IS proof that that chart has both inflow and outflow and hence cannot be used to determine sales (outflow) by looking at the change in the slope of the line. make sense?

Kosty

04-16-07, 01:53 PM

"I must've hit it pretty close to the mark to get (you) all riled up like that eh...?"

Ouch, dude!

I think if you examine my posts carefully, you will find that I rarely "take" this thread off topic. I do respond to posts that I feel require a response, however and yes, some of those posts had already gone off topic. That said, I am happy to say that you almost never go off topic on this thread and your posts are very often informative, and often much more so than mine.

As for the rest of your post above, I'll let Grubert's post #4830 speak to it. Justify it all you wish, but gloating over an Amazon group buy, on this thread is not to topic.

Wasn't trying to gloat, although others might have. I just thought it had some validity in demonstrating the volumes involved and had some thought s on when/if it would hit the N/V stats.

But I feel any points on that have been now beaten to a pulp, and I've had my say.

But at this point, I feel I am contributing to the delinquency of a rdjam, so I'll try to restrain myself. ;)

Sketcha

04-16-07, 01:54 PM

It's the USE of the chart I contested. The chart is what it is. The SALES charts are what they are.

There is no debate at all that HD DVD has outsold BD here.

It's rather ridiculous the amount of effort being expended to try to argue with that simple FACT.
To what "SALES" carts are you referring? You don't mean rankings, do you?

Sketcha

04-16-07, 01:54 PM

rdjam

04-16-07, 01:55 PM

Devoting a huge number of posts to amazon exactly when there is an orchestrated purchase drive is partisan at best.
In your opinion.

The fact is, that these Amazon charts are a leading indicator.

Sales today will not be released by Videoscan until Next week Wednesday, 10 days away.

Your implication that no one can discuss what those numbers may show, especially since we have indications of that, seems far more partisan.

Evryone has a good time discussing these when BD is in the lead? Why the sudden change of heart, then?

Sketcha

04-16-07, 02:00 PM

But at this point, I feel I am contributing to the delinquency of a rdjam, so I'll try to restrain myself. ;)
:D

I appreciate that. It is big of you to move on. Respect restored.

I'm no saint in this. After wasting my time trying to get through all the Amazon charts today, I couldn't help but register my disdain which, of course led to more off-topic posts. I'm calling it quits as well.

Now I'm just disappointed that you didn't get my movie-line quote.

rdjam

04-16-07, 02:00 PM

To what "SALES" carts are you referring? You don't mean rankings, do you?
Doh - we know what they are, don't you think? Splitting hairs, sketch? They are ranking that are representative of sales, so we call them sales charts as a generic term, ya know..

Or were you simply looking for a cheap shot? ;)

Anyway, the REAL question - moving on from the arguments - is how long will this surge last?

And, is the overall trend of HD DVD in the last three weeks going to level off or continue climbing.

My feeling is that there is a lot of enthusiam in the HD DVD camp right now.

With the second universal player hitting the market this year (and possibly TWO more) people are more relaxed about investing in movie discs, and not being as susceptible to Fear about the future of their particular format.

I think we'll see this continue for a couple months - HD DVD will have solidified the lead within 5 weeks, IMO.

rdjam

04-16-07, 02:01 PM

Wasn't trying to gloat, although others might have. I just thought it had some validity in demonstrating the volumes involved and had some thought s on when/if it would hit the N/V stats.

But I feel any points on that have been now beaten to a pulp, and I've had my say.

But at this point, I feel I am contributing to the delinquency of a rdjam, so I'll try to restrain myself. ;)
Apologies to all for the momentary exhuberance.

As long as we agree that the discussion of contributory sales figues is relevant - then let us proceed with respect.

Peace.

Back to moving discussion forward:

Anyway, the REAL question - moving on - is how long will this surge last?

And, is the overall trend of HD DVD in the last three weeks going to level off or continue climbing.

My feeling is that there is a lot of enthusiam in the HD DVD camp right now.

With the second universal player hitting the market this year (and possibly TWO more) people are more relaxed about investing in movie discs, and not being as susceptible to Fear about the future of their particular format.

I think we'll see this continue for a couple months - HD DVD will have solidified the lead within 5 weeks, IMO.

SyHD

04-16-07, 02:03 PM

So if you sell 200 units and receive 175, the graph goes down by 25. So you are saying this should count for 25 sales!

So unless you know what the inflow was, you cannot determine the outflow by looking at the change in slope. So, when that line shows an upward slope, it IS proof that that chart has both inflow and outflow and hence cannot be used to determine sales (outflow) by looking at the change in the slope of the line. make sense?

Clearly this is not a sale chart. I never indicated that it was. Its a chart of stock on hand at Amazon. You can only ascertain so much from it. I thought my rate explanation was sufficient enough to indicate what the graphs were all about and the fact I understood the graph? Like I told you before, I assumed that there was no restocking last Saturday/Sunday because there were no upper slopes on the graphs and its a Sunday. Like any assumption, I might be off-based but its the most logical assumption. Even if there were restocking, it was insignificant or the same amount for both. In any which case, my point is probably still valid. Take for what it is.

Yes, I have understood all along ...thank you very much.

nataraj

04-16-07, 02:05 PM

Is this sentence structured the way you meant it to be?

I think so. My guess is that this co-ordinated buying will not affect Nielsen data in a major way.

nataraj

04-16-07, 02:08 PM

Clearly this is not a sale chart. I never indicated that it was. Its a chart of stock on hand at Amazon. You can only ascertain so much from it. Like I told you before, I assumed that there was no restocking last Saturday/Sunday because there were no upper slopes on the graphs and its a Sunday. Like any assumption, I might be off-based but its the most logical assumption. Even if there were restocking, it was insignificant or the same amount for both. In any which case, my point is probably still valid. Take for what it is.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to crack Amazon stock numbers and the way they move. Otherwise it would have given us a good indicator - but that is not the case.

Even rankings do not tell the whole story - in that it has some residual effect (past sales affect current ranking).

I suggest a new thread to talk about Amazon rankings, numbers and its overall importance in Nielsen numbers.

Sketcha

04-16-07, 02:08 PM

Or were you simply looking for a cheap shot? ;)

Cheap AND easy. ;)

I'm glad to see you are ready to get back down to business. I think there is some relevance to the amazon charts pertaining to the following week's VS figures. It was all those up-to-the-minute Amazon charts that I was less than thrilled about. I guess if in 10 days, or whatever it is, we need to refer back to them, they won't be hard to find. :)

Sketcha

04-16-07, 02:11 PM

I think so. My guess is that this co-ordinated buying will not affect Nielsen data in a major way.
Roger that.

I agree.

wnorris

04-16-07, 02:11 PM

How many shipments do you think Amazon received on a Sunday, Plaz?

On the chart in question, I believe there is just one data point for each day. So if Amazon received a shipment on Friday, and checked it into inventory on Saturday AFTER the data point for that day was collected, then the increase in inventory would occur on Sunday, which would mask the sales volume.

The same can happen for a decrease. We overstocked and have a return policy with the manufacturer. On Saturday, after the data point is taken, Amazon employees pull stock to return. The inventory is updated, and we see the decrease on Sunday.

In both examples, no employees need be present on Sunday.

I've never bought into the "nothing checked in on Sunday so we can use that data to calculate volume" line of thinking. I think it yields false results.

plazman

04-16-07, 02:15 PM

Clearly this is not a sale chart. I never indicated that it was. Its a chart of stock on hand at Amazon. You can only ascertain so much from it. I thought my rate explanation was sufficient enough to indicate what the graphs were all about and the fact I understood the graph? Like I told you before, I assumed that there was no restocking last Saturday/Sunday because there were no upper slopes on the graphs and its a Sunday. Like any assumption, I might be off-based but its the most logical assumption. Even if there were restocking, it was insignificant or the same amount for both. In any which case, my point is probably still valid. Take for what it is.

Yes, I have understood all along ...thank you very much.

Why would you assume that restocking was insignificant and it would be the same for both formats? I would say given the high inventory that already exists for BD that restocking for HD DVD is more likely to higher going forward, until the BD inventory was exhausted to an extent....

bsk4life

04-16-07, 02:18 PM

That is exactly what I wanted to see.

If the spike in Amazon from April 15th would show in the Nielson/Videoscan numbers over time.

Sorry, if my posts seemed like posturing.

Just got my fur up I guess. :o
Sorry, I did not mean to point fingers at you personally. Your posts here are ordinarily valid to the topic of discussion. It is the sudden influx of unnecessary posts boasting about the sales spike from yesterday's event that I was mostly referring to with the posturing.

nataraj

04-16-07, 02:19 PM

I am sorry for having to post one last graph about the April 15th Bubble, but hopefully this will be it. Blu-ray actually outsold HD DVD during the bubble. Blu-ray moved more actual copies. How ironic!

http://img238.imageshack.us/img238/3583/stockmf4.gif

I think this chart can be spun in different ways.

- Amazon ordered more BD than they have been able to sell, building up huge inventory.
- If BD is selling about 2:1 compared to HD DVD, why is Amazon holding 5 times the inventory ?
- Did Amazon return some inventory since they realized they are overstocked ?

SyHD

04-16-07, 02:20 PM

Why would you assume that restocking was insignificant and it would be the same for both formats? I would say given the high inventory that already exists for BD that restocking for HD DVD is more likely to higher going forward, until the BD inventory was exhausted to an extent....

Restocking is only higher if HD DVD was outselling Blu-ray in the previous weeks/days. From all indications, Blu-ray was outselling HD DVD on Amazon for a very long time before the April 15th bubble.

Sketcha

04-16-07, 02:21 PM

Why would you assume that restocking was insignificant and it would be the same for both formats? I would say given the high inventory that already exists for BD that restocking for HD DVD is more likely to higher going forward, until the BD inventory was exhausted to an extent....
And why would you assume that? Given that Neilsen has shown sales to be relatively flat for months... AND the chart in question is flat, why would they make such a sudden change? A little coincidental don't you think?

Get your Ockham on, my friend.

Kosty

04-16-07, 02:23 PM

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
Grubert,

Don't those Nielson/Videoscan numbers show a significant rebound for HD DVD during the last couple weeks, ie since the dataset that was released from Sony ended?

And P.S: Isn't that the same thing that the Amazon trackings sites were previously showing for those periods??

simplifying a bit for clarity;
Week BD HD Ratio
01/07 64% 36% 1.78
01/14 68% 32% 2.13
01/21 68% 32% 2.13
01/28 69% 31% 2.23
02/04 69% 31% 2.23
02/11 70% 30% 2.33
02/18 65% 35% 1.86
02/25 69% 31% 2.23
03/04 66% 34% 1.94
03/11 69% 31% 2.23
03/18 82% 18 % 4.56 Sony releases data, Best Blu-ray showing all year
03/25 n/a
04/01 n/a
04/08 62% 38% 1.63 Best showing for HD DVD all year
Why do you think Sony choose to release the 3/18th data?

If it wasn't for the Amazon tracking as a leading indicator and other sources to compare the lagging Nielson/Videoscan to , the Sony selected data period would have been unchallenged, and the change in HD DVD sales trends would have been downplayed.

The data from multiple sources gives a better picture.

BrynRhys

04-16-07, 02:28 PM

[QUOTE=Kosty]Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 n/a n/a
01/14 68.2/31.8 n/a n/a
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
I may have missed this earlier in the thread, but how can the YTD share go down for Blu-Ray compared to last week, but the SI go up?
Were 04/01 and 03/25 estimates? Or am I missing something obvious in how Blu-Ray could lose share YTD while gaining share SI?

Sketcha

04-16-07, 02:28 PM

I think this chart can be spun in different ways.

- Amazon ordered more BD than they have been able to sell, building up huge inventory.
- If BD is selling about 2:1 compared to HD DVD, why is Amazon holding 5 times the inventory ?
- Did Amazon return some inventory since they realized they are overstocked ?
1. Again, Ochkam.

2. It's less than 4 times. Given the recent upswing (though subsequent downswing) to 4:1, this would be, not at all unreasonable. If they are responding to the downswing, then your saying they just happened to do that yesterday?

3. Coincidences are stacking up.

We can't be exactly sure of just what the graph change is representative. However the most responsible theory is that of sales over the weekend.

patrick99

04-16-07, 02:31 PM

BrynRhys

04-16-07, 02:32 PM

[QUOTE=BrynRhys]

Weekly ratio is higher than prior SI but lower than prior YTD.
Thanks!

GBFreek

04-16-07, 02:39 PM

Out of curiosity, are all these free HD DVD offers being reflected in the sales? Or does that not factor in?

nataraj

04-16-07, 02:39 PM

1. Again, Ochkam.

I miss the meaning of that.

We can't be exactly sure of just what the graph change is representative. However the most responsible theory is that of sales over the weekend.

I'm not going to argue what is more responsible in a vacuum - but as I emphasised the data can be "spun" in various ways. I was giving one example. You are giving another.

Anyway, as I said, let us take this talk to a different thread.

Kosty

04-16-07, 02:45 PM

Out of curiosity, are all these free HD DVD offers being reflected in the sales? Or does that not factor in? The Toshiba HD DVD pRG mail in Free DVDs rebate is probably not figured in.

Its unknown if the Circuit City receive 3 or 4? disc at the time of purchase will be included with the Nielson/Videoscan stats. Normal practice is if it goes through a retail scanner and the consumer had a choice of title it counts. It is unlikely but possible, that someone at Nielson/Videoscan can make a judgment call and conclude those should not be counted as sales, but IMHO that is unlikely. The main purpose of N/V is to show differences between titles and it would be tough to seperate out what discs were associated with that promotion. N/V does not usu sally separate out retail promotions so those Free CC discs with purchase will probably count, even if they show up as $0.00 sales.

We will have to wait and see, and someone may eventually release information on the decision.

GBFreek

04-16-07, 02:47 PM

bboisvert

04-16-07, 02:48 PM

I miss the meaning of that.

I assume he's referring to Ockham's razor... a principle that states (in essence) that the simpliest solution is often the answer. That is, don't needlessly add complicated assumptions when trying to explain something.

How that directly applies to these value "inventory stock" charts is beyond me... but there you go.

Sketcha

04-16-07, 02:49 PM

I miss the meaning of that.

I'm not going to argue what is more responsible in a vacuum - but as I emphasised the data can be "spun" in various ways. I was giving one example. You are giving another.

Anyway, as I said, let us take this talk to a different thread.
Well Kosty and rdjam feel it pertains and the graph in question is part of this debate.

However, I appreciate your desire to move on.

To answer your first question above, I believe there are "fewer" assumptions in the theory that the stock went down as a result of sales on a SUNDAY than the other, purported theories. You are correct, though; there ARE different ways to spin it, but IMO, there is one answer that is more likely than the rest.

Again, IMO.

Movin' on.

chad_cincy

04-16-07, 03:05 PM

03/18 82% 18 % 4.56 Sony releases data, Best Blu-ray showing all year
03/25 n/a
04/01 n/a
04/08 62% 38% 1.63 Best showing for HD DVD all year
Why do you think Sony choose to release the 3/18th data?
4/8 seems to corrolate well enough with the various Amazon reporting sites. Any indication why the data from 3/25 to 4/1 is missing? This should have actually been even stronger for HD DVD. 4/8 was actually a slight lull before the next major increase (the coordinated buy).

nataraj

04-16-07, 03:20 PM

plazman

04-16-07, 03:22 PM

And why would you assume that? Given that Neilsen has shown sales to be relatively flat for months... AND the chart in question is flat, why would they make such a sudden change? A little coincidental don't you think?

Get your Ockham on, my friend.

Who was talking about sudden changes? My point was really simple. You cannot use a chart that includes both inflows and outflows to show outflows without knowing what the outflows were. Is that too hard to understand?

I see that you didn't bother to challenge the critical assumption made by the other poster - assuming that re-stocking was minimal and that both formats were being restocked at the same rate. If that were true, given the higher sales of BD, HD DVD inventory would have been higher. So, where is the Ockham's Razor being applied by me? It's just pointing out the basic inconsistency in the evidence being shown as proof. So. IF you believe that chart is valid proof that BD sold more than HD DVD, just go ahead and say so. I am not disputing that BD did not sell more than HD DVD on that date (I don't know who sold more), but that chart as presented is not proof of that.

Sketcha

04-16-07, 03:35 PM

but that chart as presented is not proof of that.
No doubt.

I'm willing to just leave it at that.

As far as Ockham is concerned, I was asking you to use it. I felt that sales was the likeliest candidate with the fewest assumptions for the dip in the BD line. Still do, as a matter of fact, but it remains that this is still just a little too inductive and based on assumptions that cannot be proven without inside info. Not enough evidence. There are at least several possibilities and again I believe sales is the possibility with the fewest assumptions.

Okey dokey?

rdjam

04-16-07, 03:59 PM

Is there a way to just remove all of rdjam's post or ignore them?

How many threads can you get closed in one day? Then you carry your drivel over into here.

Yes, HD DVD sales have gone up a bit...but they are still nearly 1/2 that of BD...if that makes you tingle, I feel sad for you.

Either way, sales of both are anemic...
It's personal posts like this that cause discussion to go wrong.

The posts closed today were not because of arguments, but just that the mods felt they were already covered elsewhere.

If I can be mature enough to answer you politely, perhaps you could attempt to keep words like "drivel" in check.

I relaize you may not like the fact that I have brought in this discussion about HD DVD being ahead of BD, but lets try to stick with relevant points instead of too much personality.

asj2006

04-16-07, 04:06 PM

It's personal posts like this that cause discussion to go wrong. The posts closed today were not because of arguments, but just that the mods felt they were already covered elsewhere.

Well actually, it's trolling all over the forums that cause things to go wrong....please limit any flamebait threads to either your own forum (HD-DVD), or maybe, this forum....

I know HD-DVD has been in the dumps lately, and ANY good news, even phantom pre-orders that inflate amazon rankings can get you excited, but let's put some perspective here...unless HD-DVD can get blockbusters that sell like CR (Blu-ray), or like Spiderman 3 will, then all these petitions and sad BUY days are just drops in the bucket :D

I can tell you right now the top Hd-DVD title at amazon.com (Planet Earth) has beaten CR (Blu)-ray in RANKING (#4 vs #6), but it will sell heck lot fewer copies than CR (Blu-ray) in the REAL world :p

Sketcha

04-16-07, 04:09 PM

I relaize you may not like the fact that I have brought in this discussion about HD DVD being ahead of BD
Uhhhh...

nevermind.

Enjoy your moment. See ya' next week for the corresponding VS report. ;)

krinkle

04-16-07, 04:12 PM

Uhhhh...

nevermind.

Enjoy your moment. See ya' next week for the corresponding VS report. ;)

Yep, I can't wait for the next Nielsen report to come out and show up this nonsense. Bu-ray is still going to be ahead in sales. Luckily Nielsen does not count fake pre-orders that are later cancelled.

skogan

04-16-07, 04:12 PM

...BS Just because you don't like the data does not mean it is not relevent to this discussion.

....It's funny how some of the biggest supporters (not only in this thread) will discount any data when it is unfavorable to their case, and embrace it when it shows in their favor. That hypocrisy in the extreme.

Hey Kosty, remember about two month ago when we had nearly the same conversation? You ended up having to delete parts of your post and asked me to delete mine, because you were kind of embarrassed about what you wrote?

Here is your PM to me from 2-20-2007:

Sorry

I will delete that statment referring directly to you.

I got confused with my response on another thread.

I know you have not done that.
I will reedit my post. Would you consider altering yours so I won;t look as stupid as I do know?

In case you don't remember, let me remind you:

I am an HD DVD supporter. I have been since the very beginning. I have an HD-A1, I don't own a PS3 or any other BD player. I don't post as much now as I used to, because there's not much to post about anymore. But check my history, and I'm sure you'll find few stronger HD DVD supporters than I.

But none of that has to do with why I don't like Amazon's graphs. Amazon numbers are a small, small sample, and it isn't representative of the larger population.

The graphs represent rankings rather than sales. Since there isn't an equal distribution between ranks, the graphs inaccurately represent the relationship between the formats. For example, the graphs could show the rankings getting closer together, when in fact the sales would put them further apart. That is misleading.

So I don't like Amazon. It misleads people into thinking that sales are directly related to rankings, when they aren't. And it's such a small misrepresented sample anyway, that it's just not any good.

That's why I don't like Amazon graphs, not because I'm an alleged hypocritical BD supporter.

wnorris

04-16-07, 04:14 PM

Well actually, it's trolling all over the forums that cause things to go wrong....please limit any flamebait threads to either your own forum (HD-DVD), or maybe, this forum....

I know HD-DVD has been in the dumps lately, and ANY good news, even phantom pre-orders that inflate amazon rankings can get you excited, but let's put some perspective here...unless HD-DVD can get blockbusters that sell like CR (Blu-ray), or like Spiderman 3 will, then all these petitions and sad BUY days are just drops in the bucket :D

I can tell you right now the top Hd-DVD title at amazon.com (Planet Earth) has beaten CR (Blu)-ray in RANKING (#4 vs #6), but it will sell heck lot fewer copies than CR (Blu-ray) in the REAL world :p

Talk about flamebait...

chad_cincy

04-16-07, 04:22 PM

Skogan, it's none of my business, but in my oppinion that is bad form. Private messages are that and you should have asked Kosty before posting his message to you.

krinkle

04-16-07, 04:24 PM

Hey Kosty, remember about two month ago when we had nearly the same conversation? You ended up having to delete parts of your post and asked me to delete mine, because you were kind of embarrassed about what you wrote?

Here is your PM to me from 2-20-2007:

Wow what a nasty thing to do. Making public a private message he sent you. The words I would use to describe this would probably get me banned. Serously this is very very wrong.

bboisvert

04-16-07, 04:27 PM

Luckily Nielsen does not count fake pre-orders that are later cancelled.

I love this myth. Love it. Completely fabricated... no proof or even valid reason for suspicion. Yet it's become the new rallying cry of BD people in the face of some increased HD DVD sales rankings. Classic.

My new theory is that no one out there actually likes James Bond... and that Casino Royale sales are all due to Sony employees buying 20-30 copies each. Silly theory? Of course... but it has just as much right to be in this thread as the fiction above.

krinkle

04-16-07, 04:33 PM

I love this myth. Love it. Completely fabricated... no proof or even valid reason for suspicion. Yet it's become the new rallying cry of BD people in the face of some increased HD DVD sales rankings. Classic.

My new theory is that no one out there actually likes James Bond... and that Casino Royale sales are all due to Sony employees buying 20-30 copies each. Silly theory? Of course... but it has just as much right to be in this thread as the fiction above.

Well we shall see what the Nielsen report says next week. If what the HDDVD people are saying is true, HDDVD will take a lead in sales from Blu-ray for the week.

Are you willing to go on record and state that this is what will happen? Or are you actually doubting HDDVDs sales after all?

My prediction is that even after all of the huffing and puffing and shouting and yelling of the HDDVD crowd here Nielsen will prove you all to be impotent because Blu-ray will lead in sales yet again. ;)

Kosty

04-16-07, 04:33 PM

Hey Kosty, remember about two month ago when we had nearly the same conversation? You ended up having to delete parts of your post and asked me to delete mine, because you were kind of embarrassed about what you wrote?

Here is your PM to me from 2-20-2007:

In case you don't remember, let me remind you:

I am an HD DVD supporter. I have been since the very beginning. I have an HD-A1, I don't own a PS3 or any other BD player. I don't post as much now as I used to, because there's not much to post about anymore. But check my history, and I'm sure you'll find few stronger HD DVD supporters than I.

But none of that has to do with why I don't like Amazon's graphs. Amazon numbers are a small, small sample, and it isn't representative of the larger population.

The graphs represent rankings rather than sales. Since there isn't an equal distribution between ranks, the graphs inaccurately represent the relationship between the formats. For example, the graphs could show the rankings getting closer together, when in fact the sales would put them further apart. That is misleading.

So I don't like Amazon. It misleads people into thinking that sales are directly related to rankings, when they aren't. And it's such a small misrepresented sample anyway, that it's just not any good.

That's why I don't like Amazon graphs, not because I'm an alleged hypocritical BD supporter. I wasn't directly the comment toward you.

I also am not in the habit of posting Private Messages between me and others without there permission. That crosses some boundries of trust and respect.

You and I disagree about Amazon, butI and others here think that Amazon is a valid data set, with flaws, but useful nontheless.

The Amazon tracking sites added many useful features this year including rank tracking, title tracking and multiple chart options for time periods.

And they are consistent data points, released daily, hourly, and weekly.

We disagree is its useful. I accept that.

Thanks for sharing a personal PM. :mad:

Kosty

04-16-07, 04:35 PM

BBS G35

04-16-07, 04:37 PM

Thanks for sharing a personal PM. :mad:

"Private" message huh :confused:

Kosty

04-16-07, 04:39 PM

BTW, My PM to Skogan is slightly out of context, that's the problem with breaching the trust of posting it.

But my postings are as honest as my PM's or my face to face conversations.

But posting a PM without permission is not right.

Skogan should delete that reference and never do it again.

bboisvert

04-16-07, 04:42 PM

Are you willing to go on record and state that this is what will happen?

You just love deflecting, don't you? This is the 2nd time in as many days.

I've made NO statements about overall HD DVD sales yesterday or whether or not it will overtake BD next week. That was never the stated goal of the celebratory buying day on 4/15, nor do I have any data to know if it will happen.

How many titles purchased were preorders that don't come out for a week or two (or more)? How many titles were purchased in total? Is it enough to make a noticable impact? I don't know -- and I don't think you do either. So it's guesswork no matter what.

But... then again, this has absolutely nothing to do with anything I've posted. So I don't know why you even asked the question. Other than to deflect any attention away from your absurd and false assertion that there was some attempt to manipulate stats by preordering titles and then cancelling.

rdjam

04-16-07, 05:01 PM

I can tell you right now the top Hd-DVD title at amazon.com (Planet Earth) has beaten CR (Blu)-ray in RANKING (#4 vs #6), but it will sell heck lot fewer copies than CR (Blu-ray) in the REAL world :p
Well at least you were nice enough to compare like for like in the first instance with Planet Earth.. :)

However, Casino Royale being your "Best of the best" Bluray sales is great. Now we'll know what to compare The Matrix Trilogy against.

However, we'll have to multiply the two Trilogy sets by 3 and 5 times respectively to have an accurate comparison - you don't mind, do you? ;) Since of course you realize that Planet Earth is also a multi-disc set.. :)

Grubert

04-16-07, 05:05 PM

Why do you think Sony choose to release the 3/18th data?

Gee, I don't know - without trying to second-guess Sony, I would say that they thought that specific date would make them look best. ;)

skogan

04-16-07, 05:09 PM

But posting a PM without permission is not right.

Skogan should delete that reference and never do it again.

Rather than carry on this Orwellian exercise of deleting post you wish weren't made, why don't we just preserve history the way it happened. You need to be more concerned with what YOU post, and less concerned with people outing you.

And for the record, we didn't have a confidential conversation. You were trying to hide the fact that you wrongfully accused me of hypocrisy, which was fine until you did it again.

ILJG

04-16-07, 05:19 PM

Maybe you should be more careful in your posting style and less willing to attack those people you disagree with.... Nah, that would require you to take some responsibility for your own actions, ...

Wow, this is some of the best hypocrisy comedy I've read in such a long time. Thanks, I needed it! :D Such a great laugh for a rainy Monday!

Skogan, of all people, telling someone not to attack someone they disagree with, and to be careful about what they post.

We all remember Darin's non-stop personal attacks on Amir, and when I, and others took Darin to task, you should have seen Super-skogan-AVS-Hero telling us how great Darin is and how we should respect him for his knowledge, and how he should be able to question Amir no matter how tactlessly, blah, blah, blah. (I'm not saying Darin isn't great, he's very technical and knowledgeable, and has been very good about helping me with some of the stuff I had questions with...there's just no question he was literally going after Amir)

Then, after even more non-stop Amir thrashings, Skogan then says "hey, why does everyone just want to discredit Amir all the time?" His reponse when I pointed out this little about-face of his was something like "well, if I had known all along I wouldn't have defended Darin."

LOL! At least he admitted to jumping in without knowing the score...but it's still a great comedy routine for someone like skogan tell someone else to "look before they leap."

edit: here's the link to the "about face"...I could also link the nasty tirade skogan launched, but there doesn't seem to be a need for that yet

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8225109#post8225109

fronn

04-16-07, 05:22 PM

Grubert

04-16-07, 05:29 PM

are HD DVD fans going to splurge every day from now on to keep these rankings up on amazon?

Isn't that what Scientologists do with L. Ron Hubbard's books? :D

Now to the point - going from polls here and at highdefdigest, it seems that units sold Sunday were a little over 1,000. And HD DVD has been selling in the area of 10,000 - 30,000 per week during this year so far.

UxiSXRD

04-16-07, 05:39 PM

Well said, Fronn.

How about all the amazon stuff goes to it's own thread? It's largely useless except for vague trends (if even that).

markrubin

04-16-07, 05:41 PM

mod

this thread has several reports

tone it done please...

tnx

Kosty

04-16-07, 06:04 PM

Something that I've not seen mentioned with relation to sales rankings:

A ranking of #1 or #5 or #10 or whatever is not an absolute, as far as sales goes... it's relative. It's quite likely and possible the sales of Casino royale will still dwarf those of Planet earth, even just from amazon, though it never reached and broke the top 5. Upon release, Casino royale had much more competition from other movies -- take a look at what's in the top 10 for DVDs at the moment... no new releases and no high profile titles -- if this week had bigger name blockbuster titles coming out, you wouldn't see Planet earth managing these rankings. Rankings are not comparable from different days if you're trying to figure out which sold more -- if highest ranking is the concern then sure, but that's not a very important figure as the the meaning behind the rankings aren't comparable, only the superficial number.

It made me think about it when I realize all it took was about 150-250 preorders on sunday to accomplish that (maybe even less -- not sure though, but I have my doubts out of the few hundred people that there was more than half that wanted it).

Amazon rankings are extremely crude and abuse friendly (not in the malicious sense, only in that they can be affected rather largely by things not commonly thought of, skewing the usefulness without even knowing it). It's rather terrible how they became so commonly used. I feel like a hypocrit for only realizing how useless amazon figures are in the face of success of HD DVD, but it doesn't change the fact that these splurge rankings on HD DVDs side seems a bit like a pyrrhic victory (are HD DVD fans going to splurge every day from now on to keep these rankings up on amazon? -- they'll likely fall down again for a while, because quite a few bought all they wanted to for a month or more so). Not true. The Amazon rankings don't vary from day to day they have a historical aging component.

But, doubtless the Amazon sales yesterday were a one day spike and soon will float down to an equilibrium.

It may just be coincidental that they pushed HD DVD sales over the top in the Amazon chartings at about the time of HD DVD increased retail sales.

Maybe not exactly a coincidence, as Toshiba did launch the format at the start of the spring CE sales season, and the anniversary buying celebration and the launch of HD DVD 's 2007 spring offensive are at the same time of year for a reason.

But we don't have an neutral forum based Amazon sales thread to discuss this on. since all were closed by the mods.

But I think any Amazon discussion is more useful in this context anyway, as we have a week between any Nielson/Videoscan data updates.

Kosty

04-16-07, 06:30 PM

Isn't that what Scientologists do with L. Ron Hubbard's books? :D

Now to the point - going from polls here and at highdefdigest, it seems that units sold Sunday were a little over 1,000. And HD DVD has been selling in the area of 10,000 - 30,000 per week during this year so far. Lot of lurkers though and unreported sales.

But the entire point was not a serious attempt to manipulate the Amazon ratings. There was not agreement on titles, and the best selling title was a $70 boxed set. If there was a coordinated effort that $70 could have bought 5 times more individual title numbers.

It was more of a fun celebration by satisfied HD DVD owners and a bit of whimsy when the buys starting spiking upwards the tracking sites. Kinda neat when you can see you buying attempts affecting the tracking when combined with a few others.

Read the thread in the HD DVD software area. No evil there, just fun.

Don't know of too many HD DVD backers who are making this more significant than it is. It may be coincidental that it gave an energy to some older HD DVD owners who were lacking confidence, or that the little spike may correspond to an increased sales period for HD DVD.

But the shift in the Amazon charts is in no way highly significant by itself. If it sustains over time , and is later confirmed by the Nielson/Videoscan and later numbers, then it may be a symbol.

The only thing for sure it shows is that the Amazon ratings can show a noticeable spike when 300 or more people buy at the same time. That shows the volumes there, as well as in the other retailers tracked by Nielson/Videoscan are still low.

The most significant thing is the shift from #20 or so to #4 (now #5) for Planet Earth in the overall DVD rankings. It was significant when Casino Royale did it for Blu-ray and cracked into the top 10 there. Its also significant when Planet Earth hits #4 in sales for HD DVD , even for a short time, as Amazon does sell a large number of standard DVDs.

And for an expensive box set to do well there, well, that's not bad for a format some people want to declare dead.

No one is saying the HD DVD guys should do this week after week, like a Battlefield Earth hardcover buying frenzy. But it did show there is less gap between the format than the sales ratios would indicate on their face.

It is what it is. :) And it was kinda fun . :cool:

Kosty

04-16-07, 06:32 PM

4/8 seems to corrolate well enough with the various Amazon reporting sites. Any indication why the data from 3/25 to 4/1 is missing? This should have actually been even stronger for HD DVD. 4/8 was actually a slight lull before the next major increase (the coordinated buy). 03/18 82% 18 % 4.56 Sony releases data, Best Blu-ray showing all year
03/25 82% 18% (edit)
04/01 65% 35% (edit)
04/08 62% 38% 1.63 Best showing for HD DVD all year Originally Posted by Kosty
Why do you think Sony choose to release the 3/18th data? Gee, I don't know - without trying to second-guess Sony, I would say that they thought that specific date would make them look best. ;) it was meant as a rhetorical question.... :D

Kosty

04-16-07, 06:33 PM

Grubert, can we get the weekly sales figures for the missing two weeks?

Icemage and Nataraj, can we calculate those weekly sales figures and ratios through April 8th?

nataraj

04-16-07, 07:18 PM

Grubert, can we get the weekly sales figures for the missing two weeks?

Icemage and Nataraj, can we calculate those weekly sales figures and ratios through April 8th?

Already posted ...

Well, 25th for 82% / 18% and 1st was 65% & 35%.

These are ofcourse calculated. It would be great to get weekly data for the missing weeks from HMM. That will serve as our "check" ratio ...

wnorris

04-16-07, 07:55 PM

Well we shall see what the Nielsen report says next week. If what the HDDVD people are saying is true, HDDVD will take a lead in sales from Blu-ray for the week.

Are you willing to go on record and state that this is what will happen? Or are you actually doubting HDDVDs sales after all?

My prediction is that even after all of the huffing and puffing and shouting and yelling of the HDDVD crowd here Nielsen will prove you all to be impotent because Blu-ray will lead in sales yet again. ;)

I don't think anyone is claiming the group buy is going to make HD-DVD take the sales lead overall, just on Amazon.

If you look at the survey in the HD-DVD software forum, they think maybe they sold 1000 discs (pre-order and instock) from the group buy. I don't think anyone there is naive enough to think that their 1000 discs are going to be enough to overcome a 30,000 gap on Nielsen.

If HD-DVD did surpass BD, it would be a combined effect (group buy, CC and Best Buy 5+4 sales, $299 A2, etc.). However, it points out how few HD discs are actually sold on Amazon. Less than 1000 discs can swing things pretty big there.

Where did you see someone claim that the group buy would make HD-DVD take the Nielsen sales lead, as opposed to just spike sales somewhat (I don't think you will be able to pick out a 1k disc spike BTW)?

Kosty

04-16-07, 08:40 PM

Where did you see someone claim that the group buy would make HD-DVD take the Nielsen sales lead, as opposed to just spike sales somewhat (I don't think you will be able to pick out a 1k disc spike BTW)?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

:D

AnthonyP

04-16-07, 08:40 PM

AnthonyP

04-16-07, 08:48 PM

I don't think anyone is claiming the group buy is going to make HD-DVD take the sales lead overall, just on Amazon.

so why are people talking "trends" and HD DVD sales eclypsing/surpassing BD?

Why are they posting in the "Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios " saying Amazon is a precursor.

zBuff

04-16-07, 08:49 PM

If this group buy has little to no effect on sales figures and ratios, why post about it in THIS thread then?

Kosty

04-16-07, 08:57 PM

Kosty: comme on do you really believe what you are saying. Why Amazon and not buy an HD DVD day from anywhere? or buy an HD DVD from CC or BB that don't have s3everal on line sites graphing the change? how did so many posts form so many of the organizers just happened to notice HD DVD went higher then BD.

It is 100% about manipulating the charts. Of course it was about seeing what a coordinated buy could do to the readily available Amazon charts and to see the impact.

But "manipulating the charts' is a pejorative term. Its implies deceit and deception.

This was a open attempt to see what a few loyal HD DVD supporters could do to show a bit of support for HD DVD on the anniversary of that format's launch. I don't think any of the organizers expected there to be as much of a bump as there was. There was no coordination made to really select titles to buy, there really wasn't much of a push ot buy on Amazon.

The only real guidance was to buy as many of the titles you wanted to on April 15th , preferably on Amazon to show support for HD DVD .

I think the obvious clear and dramatic spike upwards for HD DVD was unexpected.

The jump of Planet Earth, a $70+ Box set was totally uncoordinated and unexpected, people just started buying it on their own, until people late in the day
and following its progress became a fun horse race.

Obviously, people were looking how the HD DVD sales were progressing vis a vis Blu-ray throughout the day, but I don't think anyone expected HD DVD to gain and surpass Blu-ray for the first time this year in virtually every.

It was not a serious attempt to affect the ratings, it was hoped to have some impact, but not as much as it did.

I fully expect the HD DVD lead to be transitory. But if HD DVD stays closer now on Amazon and on Nielson, it will be an unexpected turn.

No one predicted that Planet Earth or any other HD DVD would ever get to #4 on the Amazon DVD rankings. People made a big deal when Casino Royale got to #10, this just put that somewhat into perspective.

Read the thread, feel the HD DVD owners joy. :) No evil intent there. ;)

Kosty

04-16-07, 08:58 PM

But the entire point was not a serious attempt to manipulate the Amazon ratings.

Kosty: comme on do you really believe what you are saying. Why Amazon and not buy an HD DVD day from anywhere? or buy an HD DVD from CC or BB that don't have s3everal on line sites graphing the change? how did so many posts form so many of the organizers just happened to notice HD DVD went higher then BD.

It is 100% about manipulating the charts. Of course it was about seeing what a coordinated buy could do to the readily available Amazon charts and to see the impact. I said it wan't a serious attempt.

But "manipulating the charts' is a pejorative term. Its implies deceit and deception.

This was a open attempt to see what a few loyal HD DVD supporters could do to show a bit of support for HD DVD on the anniversary of that format's launch. I don't think any of the organizers expected there to be as much of a bump as there was. There was no coordination made to really select titles to buy, there really wasn't much of a push to buy on Amazon.

The only real guidance was to buy as many of the titles you wanted to on April 15th , preferably on Amazon to show support for HD DVD .

I think the obvious clear and dramatic spike upwards for HD DVD was unexpected.

The jump of Planet Earth, a $70+ Box set was totally uncoordinated and unexpected, people just started buying it on their own, until people late in the day
and following its progress became a fun horse race.

Obviously, people were looking how the HD DVD sales were progressing vis a vis Blu-ray throughout the day, but I don't think anyone expected HD DVD to gain and surpass Blu-ray for the first time this year in virtually every.

It was not a serious attempt to affect the ratings, it was hoped to have some impact, but not as much as it did.

I fully expect the HD DVD lead to be transitory. But if HD DVD stays closer now on Amazon and on Nielson, it will be an unexpected turn.

No one predicted that Planet Earth or any other HD DVD would ever get to #4 on the Amazon DVD rankings. People made a big deal when Casino Royale got to #10, this just put that somewhat into perspective.

Read the thread, feel the HD DVD owners joy. :) No evil intent there. ;)

AnthonyP

04-16-07, 09:09 PM

But "manipulating the charts' is a pejorative term. Its implies deceit and deception

but it is about deceit and deception. If we all agree the spike that might pop up will be extremely short leaved then why are there people here saying "look HD DVD has cought up"....... that would fall in trying to deceive people.

george king

04-16-07, 09:13 PM

anthony,

That is simply misplaced enthusiasm, like BD supporters going around talking about how BD is outselling HD 4:1 when that was only for a week. It goes both ways.

Kosty

04-16-07, 09:13 PM

so why are people talking "trends" and HD DVD sales eclypsing/surpassing BD? I think the effect of the April 15th HD DVD anniversary buy is temporary.

It is a fact though, that one the Amazon tracking sites, HD DVD has for the first time all year surpassed Blu-ray in most of the metrics tracked. Temporary or not , that is the first time that has happened all year. HD DVD has clearly been making gains since MArch 18th.

Why are they posting in the "Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios " saying Amazon is a precursor. Because it might be?

Seems pretty clear that HD DVD has been doing better in the Nielson /Videoscan trackings since March 19th.

If you look at the 45 day or 60 day or 90 day Amazon tracking charts, you can see that the clear increase in HD DVD sales showed up there, before the Nielson data was available.

In other words it was a leading indicator. or in this case a precursor.

What we have from Amazon is 100% collection of data from one major one online vendor. Is is comprehensively deep data, but skinny as in being from a single source.

The Nielson/Videoscan data (especially the digital only first alert data) is deep and a little less skinny, but misses some specialty vendors, that are important in the early adoption market.

Both sources will become more accurate to HD format sales as those formats increase in volume and reach mass consumer levels.

But I don't think anyone ( with the possible exception of rdjam ;) j/k) is stating that this temporary sales spike means HD DVD has won the war. It may imply that Blu-ray has certainly not won it either.

BTW, Even when I agree with his points, I often disagree in the way that rdjam may express them. He doesn't speak for me.

rdjam

04-16-07, 09:14 PM

If this group buy has little to no effect on sales figures and ratios, why post about it in THIS thread then?
The purpose was to highlight the trends over the last three weeks, which have put HD DVD firmly in the same sales territory as BD.

That the group buy happened at this moment in time is fortuitous, but it illustrates how close the two are now, when one considers how easily this "anniversary buy" reversed the standings.

Correct, the real story here isn't necessarily the "buy" - it's what has really been happening for weeks.

Next week we'll see how the standings stack up, then, one week after that we'll see that they are even closer - and there won't be a "anniversary buy" to blame it on.

5 weeks from now, I'll bet my chewing gum that HD DVD will be ahead of Bluray sales.

ILJG

04-16-07, 09:15 PM

5 weeks from now, I'll bet my chewing gum that HD DVD will be ahead of Bluray sales.

Uh-oh! Another bet!! :eek:

AnthonyP

04-16-07, 09:18 PM

AnthonyP

04-16-07, 09:23 PM

anthony,

That is simply misplaced enthusiasm, like BD supporters going around talking about how BD is outselling HD 4:1 when that was only for a week. It goes both ways.

actually it was for two weeks that it was around 4:1, and I don't know about you but there were not more then 5pages a day by BD supporters here claming in evry post it is now 4:1. That as also actual sales and not some bastardization based on some peoples misunderstanding of how ranking works or a concerted effort to skew the numbers

Kosty

04-16-07, 09:25 PM

but it is about deceit and deception. If we all agree the spike that might pop up will be extremely short leaved then why are there people here saying "look HD DVD has cought up"....... that would fall in trying to deceive people. But is has at least for the moment caught up, at least in today's Amzon rankings.

It also has been closing the gap during the last month.

I don't think anyone would disagree that it is a spike based on an exceptional event. It is most probably temporary in that Blu-ray may very well regain the lead again in hours, if not days or weeks.

But you can't predict the future any more than I can.

i see though that Blu-ray's sales lead has in ever tracking method we have been eroding since March 19th. That's a fact.

If that is because of the reasons I believe it is, then HD DVD will continue to be more competitive with Blu-ray as the weeks roll by.

If HD DVD players continue to get lower in price, if HD DVD players get manufactured in graeater more economical numbrs, if more CE companies release hybrid players, if more CE companies release HD DVD only players, if HD DVD titles continue to be released, if HD DVD PRG and Toshiba start using their $150 million marketing war chest effectively and if Blu-ray companies don't releae lower priced player to compete, those cheaper HD DVD players will continue to accumulate sales that will probably have high movie disc attach rates.

In addition, if PS3 sales continue their slump, then there impact on Blu-ray sales will eventually slow.

HD DVD has clearly not surpassed Blu-ray in sales, based alone on this probably short term Amazon tracking. But it might in the future.

Kosty

04-16-07, 09:31 PM

actually it was for two weeks that it was around 4:1, and I don't know about you but there were not more then 5pages a day by BD supporters here claming in evry post it is now 4:1. That as also actual sales and not some bastardization based on some peoples misunderstanding of how ranking works or a concerted effort to skew the numbers

We know there are gaps in Nielson sales coverages. but I agree that the Nielson stats are far more comprehensive than the single Amazon sourcing.

but a comment like "not some bastardization based on some peoples misunderstanding of how ranking works or a concerted effort to skew the numbers" is just taking the information just too freaken seriously.

The HD DVD anniversary buy was a unusual event. Lets see how the sales data looks in the next few days and weeks. ;)

I'm taking a break and I am going to have a nice calming adult beverage and watch some HD movie.

Want to join me? :)

rdjam

04-16-07, 09:32 PM

but it is about deceit and deception. If we all agree the spike that might pop up will be extremely short leaved then why are there people here saying "look HD DVD has cought up"....... that would fall in trying to deceive people.
Because, quite simply, it HAS caught up.

This is not all about the 1-day "buy" look at the last three weeks - which is what I have been drawing attention to in virtually every post.

You are consistently calling folks "deceivers", when all one has to do is use ones eyes.

The Videoscan numbers have shown this trend very clearly, also, just in case anyone has been watching. BD went from a peak, to 1.5 to 1 in the numbers last Wednesday, which was for the period of about the 1st to the 7th of April.

We are now in a period 2 weeks after that 1.5 measurement. Last week's Videoscan numbers will be out in two days. And this weeks numbers will be out in 9 days.

The trend is the story, here. After all the emotion is said and done (and there *is* too much of it) this Wednesday's numbers from Videoscan will not reflect the buy, but it will *not* be a 2 to 1 ratio for BD.

However, the numbers for *this* week, which will be released on the 25th of April, will show both formats virtually equal (if not HD ahead).

But every week more that passes, HD DVD is pulling closer alongside BD - and I predict quite comfortably that by the end of May, there will be no looking back. HD DVD is pulling ahead again.

I hope that my position is very clear here - just so there are no irrational retorts.

I've made my case, stated my position, and I'm confident that I will be shown to be correct.

If I'm wrong, so be it, but I'm certain that it'll only only be "wrong" in the context of how long it takes for HD DVD to leave BD sales behind. Heck - it could even happen sooner, for all I know.

But trends, and the fundamentals that make them, something I've become quite good at in my time :)

I don't ask anyone to agree - just bookmark this post and let's chat in 5 or 6 weeks.

Kosty

04-16-07, 09:34 PM

The purpose was to highlight the trends over the last three weeks, which have put HD DVD firmly in the same sales territory as BD.

That the group buy happened at this moment in time is fortuitous, but it illustrates how close the two are now, when one considers how easily this "anniversary buy" reversed the standings.

Correct, the real story here isn't necessarily the "buy" - it's what has really been happening for weeks.

Next week we'll see how the standings stack up, then, one week after that we'll see that they are even closer - and there won't be a "anniversary buy" to blame it on.

5 weeks from now, I'll bet my chewing gum that HD DVD will be ahead of Bluray sales. Ye gads. I agree with you here. :)

Why did you get rational all of a sudden? :p

AnthonyP

04-16-07, 09:40 PM

I think the effect of the April 15th HD DVD anniversary buy is temporary.

It is a fact though, that one the Amazon tracking sites, HD DVD has for the first time all year surpassed Blu-ray in most of the metrics tracked. Temporary or not , that is the first time that has happened all year. HD DVD has clearly been making gains since MArch 18th.

agree. Just don't know why it is here. This thread is for real numbers and most of us are here to look at trends and see how HDOM is doing. Let's face it most of the regulars of this thread be they BD supporters or HD DVD supporters. This is the first time since the thread has started where I skipped tons of pages because there is literally nothing interesting to look at. My first question is will HDOM survive and take over from DVD. I am interested to know how well each side is doing. And how well each side is doing.

Seems pretty clear that HD DVD has been doing better in the Nielson /Videoscan trackings since March 19th.

not at all YTD went up on the week of the 25.

What we have from Amazon is 100% collection of data from one major one online vendor. Is is comprehensively deep data, but skinny as in being from a single source.

The Nielson/Videoscan data (especially the digital only first alert data) is deep and a little less skinny, but misses some specialty vendors, that are important in the early adoption market.

no offence, but that is the dumbest comment you have ever made. If you were talking WM then yes what you say is true and having a look at a larger percent that is not included would be great. If it was NPD or Rentrak or some other CS equivalent that might not have 100% the same retailers then it would also be good (but not as good as WM, since there would be a large double count, but at least we could compare the two) But considering Amazon is counted by VS, looking at Ranking and trying to pretend we can determine what it means and that it adds anything is a joke.

Kosty

04-16-07, 09:43 PM

PS as for why is PA doingfg so well. Because it is a preorder and any one can use this happy coincidence to order 100 or 1000 copies that they will cancel in a few days with no penalty. You don't need too many people doing it to screw up the numbers.

And no I don't think all the preorders and sales are fake. Just pointing out pre orders are the easiest way to artificially boost the numbers.

CR was not preorders but actual sales. It also went a bit above #10. If I thought the #5 of PA was honest it would be a good sign and I would be happy for it, but there is almost no chance that it is. The way the numbers changed show that there were most likely some fake pre-orders.

Because of the way Amazone tracks ranking it will be easy to kn ow soon enough if it is BS or not. If you followed the thread yesterday, there was no encouragement of any such plumping of the pre-orders. People were in angst about not having money set aside to buy PE. PE. also wasn't a conversation topic in the thread until most people had placed their orders. Most people did not even place pre-orders.

Scan through the thread before you make such comments. I don't think your theoretical possibilities are valid, its possible but unlikely.

I can quickly look at the HD DVD PE thread and see many of the people who say they bought it in the April 15 th thread, were already considering it.

BTW, Planet Earth HD DVD is still #6 today on Amazon for all DVDs.

Kosty

04-16-07, 09:49 PM

OK, its time to take a breath: Too much testosterone floating around. ;)

I'm taking a break and I am going to have a nice calming adult beverage and watch some HD movie.

Really I am this time.

Want to join me? :)

I'll check back in a few hours.....

rdjam

04-16-07, 10:08 PM

I'm taking a break and I am going to have a nice calming adult beverage and watch some HD movie.

Want to join me? :)
While catching up on this thread I watched The Good Shepherd.

Stunning. I'll post in the appropriate thread, but it far exceeded my expectations. Very subdued filmwork, slight ly dark, until the first flashback to childhood, when the color and contrast just went off the charts. The the first scene in Africa - whoa!

And finally, the last scene where he lights a paper - you have never seen colors like this in a film, just beautiful.

And the movies, excellent, I really enjoyed this film. More stars than a country sky.

Well done De Niro and Co.

[/end hijack]

Richard Paul

04-16-07, 10:26 PM

But every week more that passes, HD DVD is pulling closer alongside BD - and I predict quite comfortably that by the end of May, there will be no looking back. HD DVD is pulling ahead again.So are you predicting that by the end of May HD DVD will equal or surpass Blu-ray in the Nielsen weekly ratio? Also do you expect that if that happens HD DVD would remain ahead of Blu-ray in movie sales permanently or did you mean temporarily?

Kosty

04-16-07, 10:44 PM

So are you predicting that by the end of May HD DVD will equal or surpass Blu-ray in the Nielsen weekly ratio? Also do you expect that if that happens HD DVD would remain ahead of Blu-ray in movie sales permanently or did you mean temporarily? For the record, I think that HD DVD will consistently pull ahead of Blu-ray in the Nielson in the 4th quarter. I think HD DVD will close the gap over the next three months and will be neck and neck in the 3rd quarter.

rto

04-16-07, 10:52 PM

Timothy Ramzyk

04-16-07, 10:55 PM

And finally, the last scene where he lights a paper - you have never seen colors like this in a film, just beautiful.

[/end hijack]

Hey! Some haven't seen it yet, spoiler alerts always a good idea. :)

SyHD

04-16-07, 11:30 PM

Hey! Some haven't seen it yet, spoiler alerts always a good idea. :)

The movie was good ...if you don't fall asleep. Its basically a 3 hr dialog movie with little to no action. It wasn't a bad movie but I would not waste 3 hrs to watch it again.

scitek

04-16-07, 11:33 PM

The movie was good ...if you don't fall asleep. Its basically a 3 hr dialog movie with little to no action. It wasn't a bad movie but I would not waste 3 hrs to watch it again.
Yeah, I'm glad I rented it because I fell asleep.

dilvish

04-16-07, 11:34 PM

Well, with that big spoiler that was just let out, I don't think I'll spend time to watch this movie. Sheesh. What's the point of watching if I know that in the last scene, one of the characters is going to light a paper? :)

fozziwig

04-17-07, 03:54 AM

For the record, I think that HD DVD will consistently pull ahead of Blu-ray in the Nielson in the 4th quarter. I think HD DVD will close the gap over the next three months and will be neck and neck in the 3rd quarter.

So noted.

For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases (that's YTD of course - weekly fluctuations will see BD's lead rise above 4:1 or fall below 2:1 depending on various factors).

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.

As a reference point the YTD ratio reported by Nielsen VideoScan as at week ending April 8th was Blu-ray 69% and HD DVD 31%.

WayneL

04-17-07, 11:02 AM

So noted.

For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases (that's YTD of course - weekly fluctuations will see BD's lead rise above 4:1 or fall below 2:1 depending on various factors).

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.

As a reference point the YTD ratio reported by Nielsen VideoScan as at week ending April 8th was Blu-ray 69% and HD DVD 31%.
The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time. Now do you expect PS3 sales to continue at the rate it did at introduction, or even, accelerate? That's what they have to do to maintain the gap, while standalone HD players continue to steadily sell to movie buffs

Sketcha

04-17-07, 11:10 AM

Timothy Ramzyk

04-17-07, 11:16 AM

The movie was good ...if you don't fall asleep. Its basically a 3 hr dialog movie with little to no action. It wasn't a bad movie but I would not waste 3 hrs to watch it again.

I'm a three hours of dialog (if it's good) kind of guy.

I have nearly a couple 1000 DVDs, only about 2% could be characterized as "action-pictures"

I've never owned any 007, Indiana Jones, Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Spider Man, Batman, Terminator, or Mission Impossible type films; just not my cup.

Timothy Ramzyk

04-17-07, 11:20 AM

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.

When is the last time you heard? I'm not being a smarty-pants, just curious if if HD players drawing closer to the $300 threshold has made any difference. Amazon seems to move a lot more HD DVD players than BD.

WayneL

04-17-07, 11:23 AM

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.
I haven't seen any numbers, but I kind of doubt BD's higher price players are keeping up. This goes back to the year-end "market share" where higher price BD's were out-selling unavailable HD players. In $ or numbers, we still don't know.

Sketcha

04-17-07, 11:33 AM

When is the last time you heard? I'm not being a smarty-pants, just curious if if HD players drawing closer to the $300 threshold has made any difference. Amazon seems to move a lot more HD DVD players than BD.
It's been awhile.

One problem with bias is we tend not to view the evidence with complete impartiality. Of course, that's why we benefit from discourse.

It is more than a little bit difficult to judge player sales from Amazon rankings. The problem is, there is not just one player on each side. Blu-ray has a whole host of players. They could all be ranked well below the few that HD DVD has to offer, yet cumulatively outsell HD DVD.

This, BTW is another part of the BD strategy. Just more models in the stores, nearly all of which are big names.

nataraj

04-17-07, 11:47 AM

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.

Curiously unlike Toshiba which has given some numbers from time to time, BD group companies haven't released a single number about CE player sales.

Kosty

04-17-07, 11:59 AM

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will. I'm still of the opinion that the statements talking about the NPD report of standalone players neck and neck was a distortion of the real NPD findings in that they implied that the numbers of players sold were neck and neck, while the actual NPD report really said that sales revenues were neck and neck, but HD DVD still had a significant margin in units sold.

That being said, the latest reports attributed to NPD on HD player sales were back in Jan AFAIK, and that is stale, as the HD A2 and HD XA2 have now been available in inventory and their prices have dropped far below any other Blu-ray standalone player.

Toshiba has given some numbers from time to time, including a statement a month ago that second generation sales units sold surpassed first generation sales.

That was before the price reductions to the MRSP. Lower prices also generate higher sales. It logical to assume HD A2 and HD XA2 sales have accelerated.

Toshiba has pointedly mentioned high unit sales. This year Blu-ray companies have been noticably silent on standalone unit sales. Since the BDA brags about everything they can, it probable that standalone sales haven't been a strong point.

I know that CC in my region is selling much much more HD A2s than any Blu-ray player, despite the fact that Blu-ray has more POS signage.

fozziwig

04-17-07, 12:04 PM

The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time. Now do you expect PS3 sales to continue at the rate it did at introduction, or even, accelerate? That's what they have to do to maintain the gap, while standalone HD players continue to steadily sell to movie buffs

This is what I was saying:

For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases (that's YTD of course - weekly fluctuations will see BD's lead rise above 4:1 or fall below 2:1 depending on various factors).

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.

In fact, that's actually what I said! No mention of PS3 in there that I can see. :rolleyes:

I note that you don't agree with my forecast. I'm sure you are not alone.

fozziwig

04-17-07, 12:08 PM

I'm still of the opinion that the statements talking about the NPD report of standalone players neck and neck was a distortion of the real NPD findings in that they implied that the numbers of players sold were neck and neck, while the actual NPD report really said that sales revenues were neck and neck, but HD DVD still had a significant margin in units sold.

Where did you get that idea from?

Despite price differences, high-definition stand-alone Blu-ray and HD DVD players are neck-and-neck in sales, according to the NPD Group.

Between April and December, 48% of high-def stand-alones sold were Blu-ray and the remaining 52% were HD DVD. Blu-ray stand-alones, including models by Sony, Samsung, Philips and Pioneer, are priced at about $1,000 and up. In contrast, certain Toshiba HD DVD models can be found for about $500.

One possible contributing factor to the results is that retailers have noted tight Toshiba inventory relative to the flusher availability of stand-alone Blu-ray players.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

Seems pretty clear to me. They are talking about UNIT SALES.

UxiSXRD

04-17-07, 12:14 PM

I haven't seen any numbers, but I kind of doubt BD's higher price players are keeping up. This goes back to the year-end "market share" where higher price BD's were out-selling unavailable HD players. In $ or numbers, we still don't know.

It was something like 45:55 in January or Febuary (after the holiday reports came in). It should definitely prove interesting to see if Toshiba's price drops have helped or not, as well as how sales will look towards holidays 07 when the lowered price Blu-ray standalones have been out. So far, the BDA strategy has been to concede the low ground to the PS3 while they concentrated on the high end (and according to Robert at VE had much higher margins than his Tosh HDDVD players).

EDIT: Ah there you go, 48:52.

Kosty

04-17-07, 12:36 PM

Where did you get that idea from?

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

Seems pretty clear to me. They are talking about UNIT SALES. I talked to someone who say the actual report. From what I heard at CES from people who attended a briefing from NPD.

The article clearly implied unit sales, I agree, Thats the way I read it too.

But it was possible the writer was mislead, and did not actually see the actual report or misinterpreted what was carefully told to them.

That report was based on the EOY data that was reported at CES. I have talked to 3 other people who saw that data who said it clearly showed that EOY standalone units sales were 2:1 in HD DVDs favor but sales revenues were about even because on average Blu-ray players cost twice as much. that would be a success in itself as double the price usually leads to less than half the sales.

I first heard the story of the NPD briefing at CES by some people I shared a cab with at CES.

As I said before YMMV. This is my opinion only, but its based on some concrete information. I have not found any other published reports to back my unsubstantiated claim.

It would not be te first time that a company mislead a reporter. I mean if someone told you HD players sales were about even 52% to 48% you might assume that meant unit sales, while the person telling you that could have known it meant revenues. I would not put it past a format backer to mislead someone in this manner. :rolleyes:

wnorris

04-17-07, 12:38 PM

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=835640

Doesn't this contradict some of what was previously believed here. According to a new press release from the HD-DVD group, HD-DVD is the first format to 100,000 sold standalone players (not counting PC and 360 addon drives).

Haven't we seen estimates of 200k Bluray standalones before? Apparently all BD standalones combined have fewer than 100k units.

I'm assuming this comes from the latest NPD report for March, which was due out this week I think (which would also mean it doesn't include sales figures from the Apr 1 price drop and the 5+4 BB and CC promotions).

This also raises the question, how are the LG and upcoming Samsung Duo hardware going to be counted? I'm assuming that since the LG lacks the HD-DVD logo, it won't be in this 100k number. For the duo, will a new catagory emerge, or will it be counted as a sale by both camps?

Kosty

04-17-07, 12:52 PM

nataraj

04-17-07, 12:56 PM

Haven't we seen estimates of 200k Bluray standalones before? Apparently all BD standalones combined have fewer than 100k units.

Never seen that figure. If it was so high it would have definitely been mentioned in some PR.

I'm assuming this comes from the latest NPD report for March, which was due out this week I think (which would also mean it doesn't include sales figures from the Apr 1 price drop and the 5+4 BB and CC promotions).

NPD figures for consoles is coming on 19th. NPD usually releases numbers on the Thursday after the end of their month (not calendar).

SamwisetheBrave

04-17-07, 12:56 PM

Kosty

04-17-07, 01:01 PM

Grubert forgive me. ;)

DVD Empire numbers for the week just went final for the week of April 10th ( I know you said preliminary numbers weren't worth anything)

Week HD DVD Blu-ray
Apr 10 50.66% 49.34%
Apr 03 44.70% 55.30%

Mar 27 26.89% 73.11%
Mar 20 27.83% 72.17%
Mar 13 24.44% 75.56%
Mar 06 38.11% 61.89%

Feb 27 50.00% 50.00%

That is the first time all year that HD DVD has lead in a final weekly number for that online retailers sales.

Leading indcator for Nielson/Videoscan?

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365593062706

wnorris

04-17-07, 01:33 PM

It does not mention its from NPD.

If it was from NPD it might miss retailers like Value Electronics, IIRC, although I think NPD does project from shipments and manufacturer and retailer supplied data.

IIRC NPD does their best market estimate of sales, not just collected data.

They are not just a pure census or survey like Nielson/Videoscan.

Well to make the kind of statement that was made, one would need to know the number of HD-DVD standalones sold and the number of BD standalones sold. While Toshiba knows how many are manufactured, I think they would have to estimate sell through. Also, they would have no idea about BD numbers. So to me this implies that the data came from a 3rd party tracking service for the hardware. The only people I know who would track that sort of thing would be NPD, thus, I assume that is the source of the Promotions Group data.

wnorris

04-17-07, 01:45 PM

Never seen that figure. If it was so high it would have definitely been mentioned in some PR.

NPD figures for consoles is coming on 19th. NPD usually releases numbers on the Thursday after the end of their month (not calendar).

The 200k number was tossed about in this very forum. It was speculation on the part of AVSr's. Basically, when Toshiba said that 175k (standalone, addon, pc drives) HD-DVD players had been sold at CES, and then NPD said BD has sold an equal number of standalones, the standalone figure was pegged at being 175k too. The same thing happened again not long ago when people were guessing at the number of addons + standalones through March. The same, BD has sold just as many standalones arguement came into play.

However, this statement from Toshiba seems to say:

Total BD drives to market: <100k standalones + pc drives + PS3's = ?
Total HD DVD drives to market: >100k standalones + pc drives + 360 addons = ?

To me, this indicates that BD and HD-DVD may be on very equal footing so far. HD-DVD leads in standalones. We don't know about PC drives, but globally, HD-DVD has the lead at a 7:3 for laptops, and lets assume BD has the lead for desktops, so we will call that roughly equal.

It all goes back to the PS3 vs. addon arguement. Only a portion of PS3's are used to play BD movies. 100% of addons are used to play HD-DVD's. So it seems this is where the hardware race gets decided. If only 25% of US PS3 hardware is used for BD, then that is 250k players or so. The Xbox 360 had like 80k players at the end of 2006, and maybe has 125-150k now. Add on a guesstimated 20k standalone lead for HD-DVD and you arrive at a guestimated difference of maybe 75k effective (actually used to play movies) hardware players.

Maybe Nielsen data is showing us the true difference in hardware. If BD owners who bought hardware for movie playback and HD-DVD owners who did the same have the same purchasing habits, maybe the 30k more disc sales seen by BD each month indicates there are 30k-60k more effective BD players on the market currently. If so, it seems logical that the two formats will reach parity soon, as HD-DVD standalone sales seem to be increasing in rate, while PS3 sales seem to be declining. So HD-DVD may be adding more effective players to the market each month, thus gaining back lost ground.

eecubed

04-17-07, 02:00 PM

I talked to someone who say the actual report. From what I heard at CES from people who attended a briefing from NPD.

The article clearly implied unit sales, I agree, Thats the way I read it too.

But it was possible the writer was mislead, and did not actually see the actual report or misinterpreted what was carefully told to them.

That report was based on the EOY data that was reported at CES. I have talked to 3 other people who saw that data who said it clearly showed that EOY standalone units sales were 2:1 in HD DVDs favor but sales revenues were about even because on average Blu-ray players cost twice as much. that would be a success in itself as double the price usually leads to less than half the sales.

I first heard the story of the NPD briefing at CES by some people I shared a cab with at CES.

As I said before YMMV. This is my opinion only, but its based on some concrete information. I have not found any other published reports to back my unsubstantiated claim.

It would not be te first time that a company mislead a reporter. I mean if someone told you HD players sales were about even 52% to 48% you might assume that meant unit sales, while the person telling you that could have known it meant revenues. I would not put it past a format backer to mislead someone in this manner. :rolleyes:

And the reason why the HD DVD Alliance didn't correct the error was...

wnorris

04-17-07, 02:06 PM

I was also reading some news on this years CeBit conference, and came across some tidbits I hadn't seen elsewhere. Forgive me if they were already discussed here.

My take from these comments is on worldwide sales too, not just US sales.

HD-DVD slim PC drives are outselling BD drive 7:3.

The HD-DVD promotion group said that 40% of HD-DVD owners are buying 1 movie every week.

And here was the comment that got me:

Microsoft's Jordi Ribas said that 2.5 million HD DVD players had been sold in 2006.

2.5 Million! How many PC drives and Xbox 360 addons have sold? I'm a HD-DVD supporter and even I have trouble believing that number. If true though, it must mean there is some area of the globe that has really embraced HD-DVD, since Toshiba said 175k players in NA for 2006.

Grubert

04-17-07, 03:55 PM

plazman

04-17-07, 04:37 PM

It's been awhile.

One problem with bias is we tend not to view the evidence with complete impartiality. Of course, that's why we benefit from discourse.

It is more than a little bit difficult to judge player sales from Amazon rankings. The problem is, there is not just one player on each side. Blu-ray has a whole host of players. They could all be ranked well below the few that HD DVD has to offer, yet cumulatively outsell HD DVD.

This, BTW is another part of the BD strategy. Just more models in the stores, nearly all of which are big names.

Non-gaming CE devices

Amazon lists the following HD DVD Players (with rank):

Toshiba A-2 (109)
Toshiba XA-2 (146)
Toshiba A20 (653)
Toshiba A1 (16099)
Toshiba XA1 (20085)

and the following BD Players:

Sony BDP S-1 (1181)
Samsung BD P1000 (1382)
Philips BDP 9000 ( 5665)
Panasonic DMP BD 10 (13080)

Verification is always one click away ;)

Kosty

04-17-07, 04:39 PM

And the reason why the HD DVD Alliance didn't correct the error was... The article was published and no big deal was made of it. The correct data was still showing low sales and HD DVD PRG did not want to make a big point of it. It wasn't asked in an interview question to an HD DVD source. There was going to be much stronger new in the future, HD A2s still were in short supply and just arriving to market. Hardware parity to Blu-ray was seen as an OK idea, and not worth complicating. There was no major reactio nto the article.

In short, little upside to the correction, as it was clear that it would sound futile in the face of Blu-ray at the time mounting disc sales lead.

Sometimes its just better to let somethings go. :D

Tosiba and the HD DVD aren't using a crisis room PR strategy to respond to innacuracies. They are just confidently and steadily letting facts on the ground speak for themselves and choosing strategic times to release summary data.

fozziwig

04-17-07, 05:51 PM

nataraj

04-17-07, 05:54 PM

yep, looks like some HD DVD buyers went onto DVD Empire by mistake on Sunday. Shame, they could have got Planet Earth to #1! :D

Except Sunday was 15th and reported sales data is for 10th :D

Richard Paul

04-17-07, 06:21 PM

The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time.That really should have been stated as a personal opinion since I have never seen any evidence that is true. In fact call me skeptical that those who have an HDTV and bought a good looking Blu-ray movie will over time become uninterested in Blu-ray.

rdjam

04-17-07, 06:27 PM

For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases For the record I think you will be shown wrong.. :)

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.For the record, I think hard drugs are bad. :)

As a reference point the YTD ratio reported by Nielsen VideoScan as at week ending April 8th was Blu-ray 69% and HD DVD 31%.Old news, and Sooooo two-weeks-ago :p

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? Old numbers, sketch.

I think the only time that BD standalone players gained on HD DVD was late '06 when the 2nd gen HD DVD players were delayed. A snapshot of player sales early this year would have shown a best-case scenario for BD.

Right now, HD DVD standalone players are outselling BD.

If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.Actually, that is not a correct assesment, in my view. Given that such a low percentage of PS3 owners are really buying BD films, the PS3 would have to outsell HD DVD players by about 10 to 1 to have even a chance a chance.

Just my perspective, Your Mileage May Vary, etc...

2.5 Million! How many PC drives and Xbox 360 addons have sold? I'm a HD-DVD supporter and even I have trouble believing that number. If true though, it must mean there is some area of the globe that has really embraced HD-DVD, since Toshiba said 175k players in NA for 2006. I suppose anything's possible, since there are a lot of OEM drives for laptops and PCs, including the Xbox add-on, but it would be nice to hear them come back and give some confirmation...

Perfect timing for this press release:

HD DVD First to Reach 100K CE Players Sold in the U.S. (http://www.broadcastnewsroom.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=129198)

We aren't given a specific date when that figure was met but that's something.At least we know the standalone number now. I'd put BD standalones at 50,000 but that's just my guess. Don't expect the BD folks to say much until 2008 when they have better machines which have sold a few.

I'm rather surprised that this release didn't include details about the Awards from Home Theatre Magazine and Home Cinema Choice.

I'm also surprised that Toshiba and the HD DVD PG haven't done separate releases on those two awards.

Anyone have contacts to make the suggestion?

WayneL

04-17-07, 06:54 PM

That really should have been stated as a personal opinion since I have never seen any evidence that is true. In fact call me skeptical that those who have an HDTV and bought a good looking Blu-ray movie will over time become uninterested in Blu-ray.
Yes, it is a personal opinion. Is it illogical, and if so, how? If the trojan horse is to turn all the gamers into movie fans, Sony better be making up its subsidies from patents.

fozziwig

04-17-07, 07:29 PM

Except Sunday was 15th and reported sales data is for 10th :D

You did know that the most recent DVD Empire data was for week COMMENCING 10th April?

That means all sales from 10th April to 16th April inclusive are reported. :D

fozziwig

04-17-07, 07:38 PM

For the record I think you will be shown wrong.. :)

For the record, I think hard drugs are bad. :)

Yes, I have seen your website, thanks.

I'll give you a short term forecast.

YTD on the next set of Nielsen data will also be in the region of 70:30 to Blu-ray. Blu-ray will outsell HD DVD on weekly volume and the impact of the Amazon assault will amount to a few thousand units at the very best - actually on HD DVD volumes that's around 5 - 10% of total sales, so a pretty good effort.. :)

trgraphics

04-17-07, 07:39 PM

Hey , an increase is better than a decrease. Unless of course you can't see past the blue fog.

Why does this one week lead scare you guys so much? With the sizable reduction in player costs it was bound to happen.

Kosty

04-17-07, 08:25 PM

You did know that the most recent DVD Empire data was for week COMMENCING 10th April?

That means all sales from 10th April to 16th April inclusive are reported. :D

I can't remember, if its for the week ending on Apr 10th or ending on Apr 10th.

April 10th is a Tuesday.

Current week stats show

Week of April 17th : HD DVD 32.86% Blu-ray 67.14%

But as Grubert has stated before , the initial numbers usually change a lot, but they sometimes don't at all (they didn't two weeks ago) which leads me to believe its for the end of the week and is finalized when the next weeks data comes in.

But it also could be the next week starting on that date, and the initial numbers is just the first days sales, or pre orders. That seems less likely to me.

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365593062706

darinp2

04-17-07, 08:28 PM

Your signature speaks volumes about BD sales and the expense incurred to gets those sales. I think there is a lot to be said for the "bleeding scenario."I think xboxboi's signature speaks volumes about him (especially considering his last signature that he knew was wrong, but kept up anyway). Another one using software sales for the US or North America, but conveniently including PS3 sales in Japan or elsewhere in order to include more players on the Blu-ray side in the comparison. Just one way to mislead. If a person wants to compare software sales for specific area they should use hardware sales for that area if they can, not artificially inflate them by including other parts of the planet while ignoring that software sales there may reflect those.

--Darin

darinp2

04-17-07, 08:35 PM

Perfect timing for this press release:

HD DVD First to Reach 100K CE Players Sold in the U.S. (http://www.broadcastnewsroom.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=129198)

We aren't given a specific date when that figure was met but that's something.I'm surprised they would even mention that figure. I'm surprised they would brag about 100k a year after launch when it looks like some people had successfully gotten people to believe that they were selling much better than this. I think this puts into perspective Robert's claims of much better sales than this, Kosty's insider telling him it was 200k sales just for Toshiba (not counting the XBOX360 add-on) maybe a couple of weeks or so ago, and with 100k reportedly counting all the standalones (HD-A1, HD-D1, HD-XA1, HD-A2, HD-D2, HD-XA2), wnorris's info about XA2 shipments:
I've heard that to date, Toshiba has shipped over 150k XA2's. Now that is shipped, and not sold, but places like Amazon and VE seem to be moving a lot of these players, and I haven't seen big box stores like BB or CC even carry this model. So it seems they would have to be stocked on websites and non-Big Box retailers.

It would lead me to believe that a high percentage of that 150k has possible sold (maybe 100k or so). If the more expensive XA2 could sell that well, I would think the more broadly available, and cheaper, A2, would sell even better.Now we have not only the info from the head of Toshiba of America that standalones were something like 60k total for 2006 that some argued against and said was a misunderstanding, but now 100k. I think this makes it more likely that the head of Toshiba of America's comments about 2006 were pretty accurate and those trying to claim much higher where the ones out of touch with the reality of their sales.

--Darin

rdjam

04-17-07, 08:50 PM

You did know that the most recent DVD Empire data was for week COMMENCING 10th April?

That means all sales from 10th April to 16th April inclusive are reported. :D
Well, HD DVD *still* beat BR for sales for that week, regardless :)

Which also indicates that people bought from various sites, not just Amazon.

YTD on the next set of Nielsen data will also be in the region of 70:30 to Blu-ray. Blu-ray will outsell HD DVD on weekly volume and the impact of the Amazon assault will amount to a few thousand units at the very best - actually on HD DVD volumes that's around 5 - 10% of total sales, so a pretty good effort.. Still living in the past? :) Yes, we all know that BR beat HD DVD since New Year's. But they're even now, and this week will be touch and go for BR as to whether HD DVD has a lead for the week.

No doubt when HD DVD in in the lead at the start of June, you'll remind us of this again :)

Kosty

04-17-07, 08:51 PM

That release does seem to show less standalone sales than I understood to date. But March sales and April sales are higher than Jan and Feb, so maybe the figures are NPD numbers through Feb?

That would still sync with 50,000 first generation players and last months Toshiba statement that they sold as many 2nd gen as 1st gen. Maybe the 100,000 is the verifiable NPD number for through Feb sales, or through March sales. If its through Feb sales, thats before the March sales incentives at Circuit City and before the April 1 MSRP reductions.

I agree with your assessment Darin about why they would release that, unless it was based on NPD numbers and was meant to preempt some Blu-ray PR piece or to prepare the battlefield for an attach rate annoucement.

Maybe they know internal numbers that hare higher and are reporting only NPD numbers. Maybe they are know the later numbers for March or projected April NPD sales and they want to show a large surge in March or April sales.

It could also mean 50-60 K last year and 40-50K in Jan and Feb sales. Its probably too early for final March NPD numbers. Initial NPD numbers would be in though.

At any rate, they seem to think that the numbers for HD DVD players are much higher than for Blu-ray standalone players.

On Bill Hunts site, DVD players sold 315,316 in year of launch and 421,735 units in the first 12 months.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

I also agree that 100,000 units is nothing really to brag about.

rdjam

04-17-07, 08:55 PM

However, to be fair, we don't know how many hundreds of thousands of other players were sold, like Xbox add-ons and PC drives.

Nescio

04-17-07, 08:56 PM

5 weeks from now, I'll bet my chewing gum that HD DVD will be ahead of Bluray sales.

If it wasn't your chewing gum, I'd take the bet in a second. 5 weeks from now is the week starting 5/22. What about the loser doesn't post for 2 weeks?

Kosty

04-17-07, 09:26 PM

I'm surprised they would even mention that figure. I'm surprised they would brag about 100k a year after launch when it looks like some people had successfully gotten people to believe that they were selling much better than this. I think this puts into perspective Robert's claims of much better sales than this, Kosty's insider telling him it was 200k sales just for Toshiba (not counting the XBOX360 add-on) maybe a couple of weeks or so ago, and with 100k reportedly counting all the standalones (HD-A1, HD-D1, HD-XA1, HD-A2, HD-D2, HD-XA2), wnorris's info about XA2 shipments:
Now we have not only the info from the head of Toshiba of America that standalones were something like 60k total for 2006 that some argued against and said was a misunderstanding, but now 100k. I think this makes it more likely that the head of Toshiba of America's comments about 2006 were pretty accurate and those trying to claim much higher where the ones out of touch with the reality of their sales.

--DarinRe reading the press release, it actually doesn't seem to actually give any firm sales numbers nor give date of the data nor the source.

It just says "over" 100,000 units.

One possibility, is that the 100,000 unit mark is just an excuse to send out the press release. :rolleyes:

Maybe they were waiting until now to send it out, when its clear HD DVD has some new momentum.

Its been planned all along for HD DVD to start spending marketing money starting this month. A PR piece , slightly understated might be in order.

Its real purpose was to highlight the MSRP price reduction to $399, create PR buzz that April sales are accelerating, and that HD DVD has momentum.

Notice the following parts:

"Retailers are showing a significant increase in sales volume this month so far. On Amazon.com, our HD DVD players continue to rank among the top ten best sellers of all DVD players, which says a lot about how consumers relate to price."With mandatory features such as a network connection, picture-in-picture, persistent storage, and decode support for Dolby True HD, every player can take advantage of new interactive and audio features as they are introducedWith titles like The Complete Matrix Trilogy coming in May from Warner Home Video, and more than 70 new titles expected to be released before the end of July, HD DVD owners will have more than 300 titles worldwide to choose from this summer, with more to come in the fall and holiday seasons.HD DVD is the next generation, post-DVD standard for high capacity, high definition optical discs, approved by the DVD Forum, which develops and defines DVD formats. Its more than 220 strong membership brings together leaders in movies and entertainment, computing, consumer electronics and software. HD DVD is fast becoming the primary visual medium for the age of high-definition TV There is actually precious little in the press release about the 100,000 milestone.

That would seem to me to indicate that that was not the primary reason for its distribution. :D

and yes, I've read a lot of press releases in my time. :)