I believe the official figure was 112k for the add-on through January (with 92k through December). I doubt sales have picked up for the add-on since January (looks like they slowed down on Amazon), but maybe they will pick up after the software update to fix audio issues.

--Darin

There is a lot of extra value in buying an "old stock" 360 add on, if you know what I mean. I bet sales at electronics stores are doing fairly well.

since people like milestones 800k PS3s sold in Europe

Re reading the press release, it actually doesn't seem to actually give any firm sales numbers nor give date of the data nor the source.

It just says "over" 100,000 units.

One possibility, is that the 100,000 unit mark is just an excuse to send out the press release. :rolleyes:

Maybe they were waiting until now to send it out, when its clear HD DVD has some new momentum.

Its been planned all along for HD DVD to start spending marketing money starting this month. A PR piece , slightly understated might be in order.

Its real purpose was to highlight the MSRP price reduction to $399, create PR buzz that April sales are accelerating, and that HD DVD has momentum.

Notice the following parts:
There is actually precious little in the press release about the 100,000 milestone.

That would seem to me to indicate that that was not the primary reason for its distribution. :D

and yes, I've read a lot of press releases in my time. :)

This analysis makes an awful lot of sense.

This analysis makes an awful lot of sense. :o

Aw shucks, I surprise even myself sometimes. ;)

Someone should do the math to calculate just how many disc are being bought per HD DVD and BR players by dividing the total number of HD DVD players sold by the total number of disc sold. Do the same with bluray so that we can see which owners are most supportive of their formats.

I can't remember, if its for the week ending on Apr 10th or ending on Apr 10th.

April 10th is a Tuesday.

And so was the 17th but I'm not sure why anyone is still confused about this.

To repeat:

DVD Empire report figures from Tuesday to Monday.

They update the previous weeks FULL figures on the 1st day of the new reporting week. They also report the FIRST DAY of the new week.

So the figures for 10th - 16th April inclusive were 50.66% for HD DVD and 49.34% - that would include any buying activity on Sunday and Monday (the Amazon assault by HD DVD supporters).

The figure for 17th April ONLY was 32.86% for HD DVD and 67.14% for Blu-ray.

The full week figures for week 17th to 23rd April inclusive will be reported on April 24th at which time the 1st days figures for the new week will be reported.

Hope that clears up any confusion.

Nielsen figures cover Monday to Sunday in case anyone wondered.

Someone should do the math to calculate just how many disc are being bought per HD DVD and BR players by dividing the total number of HD DVD players sold by the total number of disc sold. Do the same with bluray so that we can see which owners are most supportive of their formats. What divisor do we use for Blu-ray?

The over 1 million PS3's the BDA claims are all Blu-ray players or the maybe under or over 50,000 standalone Blu-ray players sold.

The over 100,000 HD DVD players and 100,000 or so Xbox 360 HD DVD add ons?

Got a good number?


How about this for a WAG for silly calculations of HD DVD's attach rate?

For example if NPD sales say 100,000 and Nielson/Videoscan say 712,013 (as of March 18th) then thats a conservative 7:1 attach rate.

If we assume last years sales were NPD at 50,000 then Nielson gives a 462,564 for last year thats an 9.25:1 overall attach rate.

If the 249,451 2007 sales through March 18th were old titles bought by an assumed 50,000 new 2nd gen owners thats a 10 week attach rate of 4.90 or annualized to 25.4 : 1 for 52 weeks.

That seems silly, but maybe there is a method to the madness of Toshiba showing a conservative number for player sales.

Maybe it just looks better compared to possible Blu-ray claims.

If there are 50,000 HD DVD player sales Jan-Feb reported by NPD this year and 50,000 last year, 100,000 may be an ok number to state and still have room to brag some more soon.

I don't even want to state what 846,771 Blu-ray sales since inception thru March 18th divided by 1,000,000 plus PS3's and Blu-ray standalones is for an attach rate. :D

Hint: Not every PS3 owner redeemed their $10 off rebate coupons...... ;)

And so was the 17th but I'm not sure why anyone is still confused about this.

To repeat:

DVD Empire report figures from Tuesday to Monday.

They update the previous weeks FULL figures on the 1st day of the new reporting week. They also report the FIRST DAY of the new week.

So the figures for 10th - 16th April inclusive were 50.66% for HD DVD and 49.34% - that would include any buying activity on Sunday and Monday (the Amazon assault by HD DVD supporters).

The figure for 17th April ONLY was 32.86% for HD DVD and 67.14% for Blu-ray.

The full week figures for week 17th to 23rd April inclusive will be reported on April 24th at which time the 1st days figures for the new week will be reported.

Hope that clears up any confusion.

Nielsen figures cover Monday to Sunday in case anyone wondered. Thanks . That makes sense to me.



BTW "(the Amazon assault by HD DVD supporters)" you make it sound so nasty and dirty LOL .....good thing the coordinated "Amazon" assault affected the DVD empire numbers too. :D

Like I said above 100,000 is a pretty milestone and may have been an excuse to release the press release with all the marketing copy points.

There may be a reason not for them to state what they think are actual sales, before they made a point of this milestone (like I said a few posts above)


They can always say 150,000 or 250,000 or 500,000 or 1,000,000 later. ;)

(and they probably will :p)

j/k :D

Thank God you were kidding! Otherwise it would seem you were in full "I like not this news - bring me some other news" mode... even if the 'some other news' involved the ludicrous scenario of a participant in a PR war downplaying its own performance.

And don't give me the 'But Toshiba prefers to keep a low profile' shtick. Who resorted to 'annualized attach rates' to give an inflated figure of 28 movies per player? Who expected an "install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007"? Those are not modest figures.

Still living in the past? :) Yes, we all know that BR beat HD DVD since New Year's. But they're even now, and this week will be touch and go for BR as to whether HD DVD has a lead for the week.

No doubt when HD DVD in in the lead at the start of June, you'll remind us of this again :)

I find your optimism utterley astonishing and, in a sense, admirable. I hope you're not too distressed when the Nielsen figures don't support your hopes and dreams. If I may put things in perspective for you:

If HD DVD sold 42,000 for the next 6 weeks and Blu-ray sold zero units, HD DVD still would not catch Blu-ray on SI figures.

To catch Blu-ray on YTD figures HD DVD would have to sell 42,000 for 11 weeks with Blu-ray selling zero units.

Here's some pictures to illustrate the reality for you:

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/bdvshdcume2007.jpg

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/bdvshdsi2007.jpg

These are based on Nielsen reported sales ratios.

How about this for a WAG for silly calculations of HD DVD's attach rate?

For example if NPD sales say 100,000 and Nielson/Videoscan say 712,013 (as of March 18th) then thats a conservative 7:1 attach rate.

If we assume last years sales were NPD at 50,000 then Nielson gives a 462,564 for last year thats an 9.25:1 overall attach rate.

If the 249,451 2007 sales through March 18th were old titles bought by an assumed 50,000 new 2nd gen owners thats a 10 week attach rate of 4.90 or annualized to 25.4 : 1 for 52 weeks.


I know those figures are self-confessed silly, but WTF?

- 175,000 total players in 2006
- 92,000 xbox add-ons in 2006
- 20,000 add-ons in Jan 07
- 100,000 standalones as of now

Total add-ons may be about 150,000 now. Which makes total players 250,000.

Movie sales are under a million (BDA just said they reached a million units sold).

Attach rate is under 4:1.

Attach rate is under 4:1. Yah, but..... Probably half of those players and maybe movies were sold in the first 3 months of the year or less. So that would work out to be an annualized attach rate of what? Around 12 or more?

Thank God you were kidding! Otherwise it would seem you were in full "I like not this news - bring me some other news" mode... even if the 'some other news' involved the ludicrous scenario of a participant in a PR war downplaying its own performance.

And don't give me the 'But Toshiba prefers to keep a low profile' shtick. Who resorted to 'annualized attach rates' to give an inflated figure of 28 movies per player? Who expected an "install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007"? Those are not modest figures. Don't remember the 2.5 million figure.

I thought Toshiba estimated 1.2 million Toshiba HD DVD players by the end of the year.

Did the HD DVD PRG (not Toshiba) say 2.5 M?

I admit saying a calculation of a 28 attach rate 6 months into the format launch was a bit, shall we say, aggressive? but its nothing compared to the BDA's pure propaganda and PR games, now isn't it?

But seriously, there are solid professionally known in the trade reasons in a public relations campaign to tactically understate you position in order to make future anticipated gains seem even more impressive.

As I said above, its also quite possible the point of that press release was not actually to brag about the "over" 100,000 units sold, it was to highlight the beginning of a resurgence in HD DVD's momentum.

What better way to continue that momentum, than to be able to state in a couple weeks a huge jump in standalone sales, using a low-ish 100,000 as a base number.

If you have a PR plan. its nice to be able to state steady milestones. :)

Again , 100,000 is also a pretty number that one can wrap there head around. Why say 1xx,xxx when you can first say 100,000 and then soon thereafter say 150,000.

Like I said above 100,000 is a pretty milestone and may have been an excuse to release the press release with all the marketing copy points.

Yah, but..... Probably half of those players and maybe movies were sold in the first 3 months of the year or less. So that would work out to be an annualized attach rate of what? Around 12 or more?

You are dividing software sales during 2007 by player sales during 2007? You must be kidding.

You are dividing software sales during 2007 by player sales during 2007? You must be kidding. Well that's using the March 18th data when there were no new releases during the year so that calculation (obviously aggressive ;) ) is saying virtually all of the disc sales through March 18th were bought by new HD DVD player owners, buying the old titles. That's obviously exaggerated, but there may be some value in the calculation.

With the drought of titles being released, a lot of the HD DVD sales of the earlier released title probably were bought by the newer owners, who say the entire catalog as new, as opposed to the older owners.

Heck, I know I hardly bought any HD DVD discs this year until a couple weeks ago. I was still catching up on what I already bought. And I had no releases to buy.

Its not that improbable or outlandish to surmise that a lot of the HD DVD sales in 2007 until March 18th were to new owners, not when Batman Begins Serenity and Goodfellas were among the top sellers. I bought those last summer. ;) Someone who just bought a player probably bought them this year. :D

Obviously that 's not a accurate calculation, nor one that can be seriously defended, but it might be one that could be surmised with better consumer research.

I'm just saying, there might be tactical reasons for Toshiba and the HD DVD PG to be conservative in stating player sales.

One reason is that would increase a calculated attach rate, the other is that it would make other upcoming sales figures look better.

Heck, I know I hardly bought any HD DVD discs this year until a couple weeks ago. I was still catching up on what I already bought. And I had no releases to buy.

That's a gross generalization.

To counter your own personal example, I bought four HD DVD titles in the first three months of the year. I'd have bought more, but then my local DVD store began renting HD DVDs. ;)

Its not that improbable or outlandish to surmise that a lot of the HD DVD sales in 2007 until March 18th were to new owners, not when Batman Begins Serenity and Goodfellas were among the top sellers. I bought those last summer. Someone who just bought a player probably bought them this year.

But we have seen many forum members who bought a player last year and bought this year some titles which were released last year.

Not to mention that you don't include new releases. The Departed sold over 23,000 copies. Babel, Lucky Number Slevin, Clerks 2, The Mummy Returns, sold 4,000 - 5,000 each. How many were sold by new owners and how many by existing owners?

Thank God you were kidding! Otherwise it would seem you were in full "I like not this news - bring me some other news" mode... even if the 'some other news' involved the ludicrous scenario of a participant in a PR war downplaying its own performance.

And don't give me the 'But Toshiba prefers to keep a low profile' shtick. Who resorted to 'annualized attach rates' to give an inflated figure of 28 movies per player? Who expected an "install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007"? Those are not modest figures.


Well according to a Microsoft rep at CeBit, worldwide 2.5 million HD-DVD drives were sold in 2006. If true, then they already have a 2.5 million install base.

And to use previous logic... Since no one at the BDA has issued a release disputing it, it must be true. :eek:

Well according to a Microsoft rep at CeBit, worldwide 2.5 million HD-DVD drives were sold in 2006. If true, then they already have a 2.5 million install base.

That started on TG Daily, which is worth shite as a reference. Definitely a misquote.

And to use previous logic... Since no one at the BDA has issued a release disputing it, it must be true. :eek:

Well it has been debunked by a Toshiba press release, which is even better.

Back to serious conversation:

If we have over 200,000 players, and if 40% of US HD DVD households buy a new disc every week -as claimed last month (http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=8701) , weekly sales should be over 80,000.

I know those figures are self-confessed silly, but WTF?

- 175,000 total players in 2006
- 92,000 xbox add-ons in 2006
- 20,000 add-ons in Jan 07
- 100,000 standalones as of now

Total add-ons may be about 150,000 now. Which makes total players 250,000.

Movie sales are under a million (BDA just said they reached a million units sold).

Attach rate is under 4:1.
Grubert, how many xbox addon came with KK? I hear that there's a lot of these addons sold. Near where I live, I see stacks of them with the KK sticker still on.

Disney's ad in HMM also expects 2.5M red player figure by end of 2007, so they are basing that number on the HD DVD PG estimate. Everyone's estimates for titles, sw sales, hw sales are coming below projection for all of highdef gaming and video. Sometimes, the miss is huge and the channels become stuffed with boxes of all sizes and colors.

Heck, I know I hardly bought any HD DVD discs this year until a couple weeks ago. I was still catching up on what I already bought. And I had no releases to buy.

Well, there were about 30 HD DVD titles released from Jan-Mar this year, so while you had no releases to buy, I don't think it's safe to assume that this was the case for everyone.

I bought Clerks II, The Sting, The Departed, Bullitt... others picked up Brokeback, Black Rain, Slevin, Poseidon, Mummy Returns, Babel.


While there may have been fewer titles than people hoped for, it wasn't like *nothing* came out during this time. I don't think you can make many assumptions with the figures based on a lighter release schedule.

Someone should do the math to calculate just how many disc are being bought per HD DVD and BR players by dividing the total number of HD DVD players sold by the total number of disc sold. Do the same with bluray so that we can see which owners are most supportive of their formats.

Good thought.

As I was reading the 100k release and then seeing some supporters and nay sayers say it is insignificant, I was kind of shocked.

BD has what? 1,000,000 PS3 plus whatever stand alones they have sold. HD-DVD has ~200,000???

Thats 5:1 lead in sales units, but BD has not consistently held a 5:1 lead in software sales. I believe it only hit that mark one week?

I may be wrong with my numbers and it may have already been touched upon since this post here. But, it seems to me the HD-DVD owners are much more supportive of their format and have a higher attach rate.

it seems to me the HD-DVD owners are much more supportive of their format and have a higher attach rate.

That's the consensus. A Paramount analyst said only about 22% of PS3 owners buy BD movies regularly.

Good thought.

As I was reading the 100k release and then seeing some supporters and nay sayers say it is insignificant, I was kind of shocked.

BD has what? 1,000,000 PS3 plus whatever stand alones they have sold. HD-DVD has ~200,000???

Thats 5:1 lead in sales units, but BD has not consistently held a 5:1 lead in software sales. I believe it only hit that mark one week?

I may be wrong with my numbers and it may have already been touched upon since this post here. But, it seems to me the HD-DVD owners are much more supportive of their format and have a higher attach rate.

It was 4:1 for two weeks running, and this was the Casino Royale release weeks, so basically if the BDA want to take advantage of the PS3 crowd, they will have to release discs that cater to that crowd like CR and ID4 etc...

BD has what? 1,000,000 PS3 plus whatever stand alones they have sold. HD-DVD has ~200,000???

Thats 5:1 lead in sales units, but BD has not consistently held a 5:1 lead in software sales. I believe it only hit that mark one week?
There have been a couple of reports that other members have posted that showed estimates of 5.5-6 million PS3's shipped and 3 million in customers hands. It has also been argued that Blu-ray has sold nearly as many stand alones. That would be 3,200,000 total players to 200,000 players or 16:1, if the numbers hold out.

I may be wrong with my numbers and it may have already been touched upon since this post here. But, it seems to me the HD-DVD owners are much more supportive of their format and have a higher attach rate.

It would have been even more significant if HD DVD would have sold only 10,000 players! Then HD DVD owners would have been incredibly supportive of their format. Maybe they should raise their prices a bit ;)

I have to admit that the attach rate for HD DVD looks like is below 4:1 + the freebies. So, higher attach rates may be expected annualized rates as opposed to actual attachment. I can safely say that given what we know of HD DVD standalone + Xbox drive sales, an attach rate of 8 disks or whatever folks have been saying so far is almost impossible. Only possible IF HD DVD sold 2X as many disks as being reported!

There have been a couple of reports that other members have posted that showed estimates of 5.5-6 million PS3's shipped and 3 million in customers hands. It has also been argued that Blu-ray has sold nearly as many stand alones. That would be 3,200,000 total players to 200,000 players or 16:1, if the numbers hold out.

US <> World ;)

It would have been even more significant if HD DVD would have sold only 10,000 players! Then HD DVD owners would have been incredibly supportive of their format. Maybe they should raise their prices a bit ;)

Well, I don't think that would be reason to celebrate lol.

I was just thinking to myself. That 100,000 stand alones isn't a bad mark, not stellar mind you. But not dismal. Considering the amount of sales both sides have had. I just happen to think it looks better for the HD-DVD camp than the BD camp.

Comparing the # of total units of playback devices sold to the total # of software unit sales and I think its pretty clear that HD is doing better. As far as customer satisfaction with that product and them using it for what it was made for.

This is my opinion only.

Well it appears that Amazon DOES wish to keep their BD inventory up. ;)

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/quantity-1-1-recent30.jpg

Or maybe sales have dropped keeping stock high?

Nah, couldn't be ;)

US <> World ;)
I was under the impression that the numbers represented NA, EU, and Japan. If that is not right, then correct it. I'm not above being wrong. ;)

I was under the impression that the numbers represented NA, EU, and Japan. If that is not right, then correct it. I'm not above being wrong. ;)

Outside of the US, we only have figures for standalone players in France, Germany and UK: http://www.cinemotion.biz/informacion.php?iinfo=75 and only covering up to February. No information on xbox add-on sales at all.

Or maybe sales have dropped keeping stock high?

Nah, couldn't be ;)
Uhhh. No. Notice the prior dip. According to some, the dip possibly represented return shipments back to the studios or wherever, not sales.

The only other possibility that I can see for the return to full stock is customer returns. I guess it's just a coincidence that Amazon has been keeping their BD inventory constant for so long and just suddenly decided to return some. Then they just happened to get a load of customer returns that brought the inventory back up to normal. :rolleyes:

seems like things are coming back on amazon..
http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

TOP 10
Blu-ray : 186.7
HD DVD : 181

TOP 25
Blu-ray : 590.28
HD DVD : 606.84

TOP 100
Blu-ray : 3263.04
HD DVD : 3161.67


# in TOP 100
Blu-ray : 3
HD DVD : 2

# in TOP 1000
Blu-ray : 20
HD DVD : 18

# in the TOP 10000:
Blu-ray : 139
HD DVD : 134

That started on TG Daily, which is worth shite as a reference. Definitely a misquote.



Well it has been debunked by a Toshiba press release, which is even better.

Back to serious conversation:

If we have over 200,000 players, and if 40% of US HD DVD households buy a new disc every week -as claimed last month (http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/index.cfm?newsid=8701) , weekly sales should be over 80,000.

First, that story didn't start on TG Daily. It was started by a Swedish journalist, Wolfgang Gruner, and TG Daily did their best translation on his original article. The untranslated version is copied here:

http://www.tomshardware.se/multimedia/20070316/

I'm not saying its not a misquote, but if it was, what did Ribas actually say? 250,000 HD DVD drives? 2.5 million HD drives?

Also, don't mislead people. Toshiba did not debunk the claim. The numbers at CeBit were for HD-DVD players, which can take many forms. The number was also worldwide.

The Toshiba press release in standalone players only. In NA only.

The 40% number that was also stated at CeBit did not specify if this was a worldwide stat, limited to the US, or limited to NA.

Finally, you further mislead people by trying to use a Nielsen statistic and an NPD statistoc together. Nielsen only tracks US sales. They do not account for any sales outside the US. NPD, which tracks hardware, tracks for North America. So the numbers come from two different populations. It's aout as bad as taking the US software number and dividing that by the Japanese hardware number to determine the attach rate.

Again, I think you need to update your signature if you are going to start making these kinds of misleading posts.

Just a reminder of what the HD DVD promo group said in their CES report on January 7th, 2007:

Fueled by brisk sales of second-generation Toshiba HD DVD players, the HD DVD drive for Xbox 360, and HD DVD-enabled Intel® Core™2 Duo laptops and desktop PCs from companies like Acer, HP, Niveus and Toshiba, HD DVD’s installed base is estimated to have exceeded 175,000 in North America.

So they were counting everything they could.

One thing we all know must be false is that in 2006 there were not 2.5 million HD DVD drives sold and neither were there 250,000 HD DVD drives sold. If there had been I think the HD DVD promo group might have mentioned it.

Manufactured and stored in warehouses? Possibly. Granted this is a NA figure but I find it doubtful that at least 10 times the number of HD DVD drives would have sold in the rest of the world.

BTW you can download the full report at http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect.com/

First, that story didn't start on TG Daily. It was started by a Swedish journalist, Wolfgang Gruner, and TG Daily did their best translation on his original article. The untranslated version is copied here:

http://www.tomshardware.se/multimedia/20070316/

TG Daily is the English-language news section of Tom's Hardware. :D

I'm not saying its not a misquote, but if it was, what did Ribas actually say? 250,000 HD DVD drives? 2.5 million HD drives?

2.5 million players total expected by the end of 2007.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6425099.html

Manufactured and stored in warehouses? Possibly.

No. That isn't possible either. I'll post a question in the insider thread to get clarification.

The 40% number that was also stated at CeBit did not specify if this was a worldwide stat, limited to the US, or limited to NA.

Actually it did:

Around 40 percent of US HD DVD households buy a new disc every week, he added.

Finally, you further mislead people by trying to use a Nielsen statistic and an NPD statistoc together. Nielsen only tracks US sales. They do not account for any sales outside the US. NPD, which tracks hardware, tracks for North America.

Wrong again. http://www.360-gamer.com/news.asp?id=226

I am interested in your own estimate. How many add-ons you think have been sold to date in the US?

That's the consensus. A Paramount analyst said only about 22% of PS3 owners buy BD movies regularly.

If that trend continues (and is accurate) that will be VERY significant.

As I was reading the 100k release and then seeing some supporters and nay sayers say it is insignificant, I was kind of shocked.


The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

That would be worrying numbers in terms of take-up of the format (actually for both formats), though it may explain why they have been cutting prices so unusually aggressively.

Actually, even is Kosty is right and they lowballed this to give the impression of huge growth later on, 70K units in 3 months would still be abominal if you hope to sell more than a million over the whole year.

All the Blu-Ray companies combined only sold 20K standalone players in the whole of 2006, 20K by a single company in the 1st 3 months was pretty good.

That's the consensus. A Paramount analyst said only about 22% of PS3 owners buy BD movies regularly.

I wonder what that means. Does that mean the avg attach rates for PS3 is some 1/5th of the avg attach rates for stand alone ?

All the Blu-Ray companies combined only sold 20K standalone players in the whole of 2006, 20K by a single company in the 1st 3 months was pretty good.

I'm obviously looking at the trend, which is why I said it was bad news for both.

It means that their average monthly sales decreased from 2006 to 2007.
(And yes, I'm aware that 2006 includes the holidays. But I'm also aware that prices were cut dramatically in 2007.)

Nataraj,

I wonder what that means. Does that mean the avg attach rates for PS3 is some 1/5th of the avg attach rates for stand alone

What the 22% figure means is that this number is to be treated as if they ARE standalones, and the rest are to be ignored because they are game machines. So, if there are 1 million ps3's it means that for all intents and purposes, those 1 million units translates into 220K standalone BD players. Thus, those 220K are to be included in calculating attach rates, not 1 million.

I wonder what that means. Does that mean the avg attach rates for PS3 is some 1/5th of the avg attach rates for stand alone ?

I guess that actually means that they (at most) might have done a survey and that only 22% said that they were planning to regularly buy (or had regularly bought) movies.
Given how little information there is on all sales, it is difficult to imagine that a Paramount consultant (let alone Paramount itself) would have some real and realistic data on attach rates for either standalones or PS3/Xbox add-on. To me it seems the guy made a rough guesstimate that coincidentally 'happened' to give equivalent numbers for both formats. From a consultant for a neutral studio who does not want to be out of a job too quickly, that is not unexpected ;)

I guess that actually means that they (at most) might have done a survey and that only 22% said that they were planning to regularly buy (or had regularly bought) movies.
Given how little information there is on all sales, it is difficult to imagine that a Paramount consultant (let alone Paramount itself) would have some real and realistic data on attach rates for either standalones or PS3/Xbox add-on. To me it seems the guy made a rough guesstimate that coincidentally 'happened' to give equivalent numbers for both formats. From a consultant for a neutral studio who does not want to be out of a job too quickly, that is not unexpected ;)

I'd think so too. Any kind of attach rates is a moving target now - even if we have sales data for movies and players.

Or maybe sales have dropped keeping stock high?

Nah, couldn't be ;)
Look at the shape of that curve, especially the 24 hour stock. There have been dips and resuppy --- meaning stock is moving.

Mind you, the sales numbers on amazon are a lot smaller than I originally thought. I tried to keep track of the change in stock every 24 hours and have been surprised at what the arithmetic tells me in terms of 24 hour unit sales per title for each position in the amazon ranking. I believe I saw about 400 disks a day for CR and that was when CR was around #007 for a few days post release!

These people organizing these hd dvd and BD amazon buys must be paid by amazon. ;)

Actually it did:


Someone may have said that elsewhere (I haven't seen an article or release though). But from the TG Daily article where I originally mention this several posts back...

...with 40% of HD-DVD owners buying a new movie every week.

No mention of the US in there anywhere.

I believe I saw about 400 disks a day for CR and that was when CR was around #007 for a few days post release!

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.

Some people have speculated, looking at Amazon stock that sudden drops and replinishments might be stock moving from one warehouse to another i.e. not really sales.


These people organizing these hd dvd and BD amazon buys must be paid by amazon. ;)

To use a slashdot concept - this is like soviet union. The shop pays you money if you buy from them :D

Wrong again. http://www.360-gamer.com/news.asp?id=226

I am interested in your own estimate. How many add-ons you think have been sold to date in the US?

Sorry, you are wrong. NPD tracks US and Canadian sales, while Nielsen does not track Canadian disc sales.

From other reports...

NPD reports that since the November launch of the HD-DVD add-on for the Xbox 360, the add-on has sold 92,000 units in North America as of the end of December 2006.

Well, there were about 30 HD DVD titles released from Jan-Mar this year, so while you had no releases to buy, I don't think it's safe to assume that this was the case for everyone.

I bought Clerks II, The Sting, The Departed, Bullitt... others picked up Brokeback, Black Rain, Slevin, Poseidon, Mummy Returns, Babel.


While there may have been fewer titles than people hoped for, it wasn't like *nothing* came out during this time. I don't think you can make many assumptions with the figures based on a lighter release schedule.

I just looked up the release #'s for each since Jan 1 through Apr 17th (high-def digest)

BD=82 titles
HD-DVD 37 titles

That means BD got 69% of the HD releases so far for 2007. No matter how you spin the numbers HD-DVD is holding on quite well for having a few hundred thousand players out there vs. millions of PS3's. Given the touted 2:1 sales of BD over HD-DVD isn't all that impressive when you have nearly 70% of the releases and millions more players in homes. Now that HD-DVD actually has movies coming out in the coming months, I think you will see BD maintain a lead but HD-DVD even with the fraction of players out there will stay relatively close. I think a 2:1 sales margin for BD isn't a bad thing for HD-DVD given the current market. The PS3 market is mostly saturated now with the major launches done.

It will be quite interesting to see how this year shapes up for each. Either way, we aren't getting rid of either one of them any time soon.

The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

That would be worrying numbers in terms of take-up of the format (actually for both formats), though it may explain why they have been cutting prices so unusually aggressively.

Actually, even is Kosty is right and they lowballed this to give the impression of huge growth later on, 70K units in 3 months would still be abominal if you hope to sell more than a million over the whole year.

Not really. In DVD's second year, it sold 8X as many players in December, as it did in January. So if it is 20k units or so, and it follows the DVD trend, that would be 160k units sold in Decemeber.

DVD basically sold the same for the first three months of its second year, slowly started to ramp up, and then sales exploded starting in June. I see the same trend occuring here.

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.

Some people have speculated, looking at Amazon stock that sudden drops and replinishments might be stock moving from one warehouse to another i.e. not really sales.




To use a slashdot concept - this is like soviet union. The shop pays you money if you buy from them :D
That's the few days after release, and the rank was bouncing around 5-9 those few days. Something like 2000 CR disks was sold by amazon that week.

The 400 number is to show how few disks amazon sells, not how well CR sold. Nielsen numbers are POS, meaning 28K was from participating stores. As for what is the multiplier to get the actual total sales number, your guess is as good as mine. Note there's a lot of Walmarts, and from what I remember, each store that have HDM shelves, carried at least 6 CR disks.

As for the stock in amazon, I don't have an idea how they work either, but it does look on the surface that the dips correspond to the few well selling titles. There's very few titles that carry the bulk of that stock total, and even tracking them using the ALL HD or ALL BD option every 24 hours gives an approximate correlation in the unit sales with placement. (very few disks are sold daily in total, so it's easy to track.

Barring new inventory, of course. Happy Feet stock is a nice one to track.
---
nataraj, how many 360 addons include the KingKong disk? Was it 150K or 250K?

Not really. In DVD's second year, it sold 8X as many players in December, as it did in January. So if it is 20k units or so, and it follows the DVD trend, that would be 160k units sold in Decemeber.

DVD basically sold the same for the first three months of its second year, slowly started to ramp up, and then sales exploded starting in June. I see the same trend occuring here.

But the 20K were for 3 months, not per month!

So that cuts your estimate to 50-60K for December. So if they do half of that per month between now and then (given that holidays are really a peak, that is even a conservative estimate), then we have some 300K players for 2007. That is way below anyone's estimate for the year.

The 400 number is to show how few disks amazon sells, not how well CR sold.

I understand that. I was just commenting that the number is probably lower than that ...


As for the stock in amazon, I don't have an idea how they work either, but it does look on the surface that the dips correspond to the few well selling titles.


We don't know - Amazon has had some strange stock movements.


nataraj, how many 360 addons include the KingKong disk? Was it 150K or 250K?

Unfortunately, this is the kind of question where either I wouldn't know or if I knew I wouldn't be able to tell. AFAIK, there is no public information.

Sorry, you are wrong. NPD tracks US and Canadian sales, while Nielsen does not track Canadian disc sales.

Just because they track US and Canadian sales doesn't mean they can't disaggregate US and Canadian sales. :)

Just another example, this time from Variety (http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117955798.html?categoryid=1009&cs=1) (Nov. 16):

According to industry tracker NPD Group, Sony sold 197,000 PlayStation 3's in the U.S. in November, following the console's Nov. 17 launch.

Microsoft, meanwhile, sold 42,000 units of its new HD-DVD player add-on for the Xbox 360 in the U.S. last month.

And another (http://www.planetxbox360.com/index.php/articledetails/show/1192):

Microsoft's HD DVD peripheral landed in 92,000 US homes since it was launched in November, but comparing its success to that of Sony's competing Blu-Ray is tough. Researchers at the NPD group tallied all sales for the add-on over the last two months of 2006.

The only figure specifically pertaining to "North America" is the 175,000 total players in 2006. To correct that, as Canada population is about one tenth that of the US, we can have an estimate that it was 158,000 for the US and 17,000 for Canada.

That would give 66,000 standalone HD DVD players for the US in 2006.

The 100,000 standalone players figures is also for the US. That would yield 34,000 players sold in 2007 for the US.

Unfortunately, this is the kind of question where either I wouldn't know or if I knew I wouldn't be able to tell. AFAIK, there is no public information.

Correct. When the inclusion of KK was announced, the only information was "for a limited time". That timespan was not specified BTW.

Unfortunately, this is the kind of question where either I wouldn't know or if I knew I wouldn't be able to tell. AFAIK, there is no public information.
I think it was announced way back --- some time limited promotion first X buyers get a free KK disk. And for a while the drives showed up and disappeared quickly, but now, they just sit there stacked up in piles. And I'm surprised they still have the KK sticker.
---

This is what disney had in their HMM ad for blu-ray.
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom041507/index.php?startpage=4

Their estimate was for 2.5M HD DVD players by end of 2007. 8.5M for BD (probably mostly PS3s).

I doubt either numbers will be met unless some miracle $50 player shows up.

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.I think that is probably too high for weeks after the first week, but Amazon could skew toward higher for the first week because they accept preorders. My best guess from looking at the rankings and stock numbers for CR (while being careful to avoid the big drops and spikes that I don't think indicate sales) is that Amazon sold about 2k during the first 7 days and had preorders in the range of 4k. That would make it 21% or so of the first week, but mostly because of preorders. The 4k is definitely a guess with a large margin of error though.

--Darin

The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!Based on a few different things (like the head of Toshiba of America saying 60k for standalones for 2006 and bkilian of Microsoft saying something about the NPD or Nielsen numbers being low for the add-on), I think it is reasonably likely that the 175k+ number from Toshiba assumed more XBOX360 add-ons than the 92k that were announced. I don't remember when that number was published, but seems like it might have been after the 175k+ number was given.

--Darin

Comparing the # of total units of playback devices sold to the total # of software unit sales and I think its pretty clear that HD is doing better.Of course it is. I thought people understood how the different approaches would affect things long ago. Sony went with a strategy that should result in lower attach rates, but likely higher sales overall (which is the real goal). Microsoft went with a strategy that made sure that it doesn't count game system owners who don't specifically spend money to get the HD movie player part. That should mean higher attach rate, even if lower software sales. I hope HD DVD fans aren't ignorant enough to think that Microsoft stepping up and putting an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360 would have been bad for HD DVD, since it would likely result in lower attach rates. Would any HD DVD fan here be upset if Microsoft sent a free add-on drive to every XBOXLive customer, since it would likely lower attach rates?

Maybe some of us should have discussed this clearly before the formats even launched (over a year ago), as we had enough information to know that HD DVD's approach should lead to a higher attach rate, even if less movies sold. I figured people understood that when some of us said things like that if PS3s sold BDs at a rate to count as 15-20% of regular standalones that it would be significant, that it had to do with this issue. Maybe if we had discussed it more clearly at that time more people would have understood it, as it almost seems like people are going with ignorance on this subject because it helps the side they are rooting for to look better. I still haven't had anybody who thinks that attach rate is the most important factor explain why RCA dropped their CED format and basically admitted defeat to VHS years ago when CED had good attach rates. CED didn't sell as many players as expected and looks like it didn't get much beyond a core of enthusiastic buyers, which is a major problem, even though it can help attach rates.

--Darin

The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

I think (from what Toshiba said) that it was closer to 60k last year

Their estimate was for 2.5M HD DVD players by end of 2007. 8.5M for BD (probably mostly PS3s).

I doubt either numbers will be met unless some miracle $50 player shows up.


well BD is almost 1/2 way there, so I think the 8.5 is credible I would guess HD DVD is <1/5 so it needs some serious catch up

PS maybe we should start a different thread on player sales, this is the VS thread after all

But the 20K were for 3 months, not per month!

So that cuts your estimate to 50-60K for December. So if they do half of that per month between now and then (given that holidays are really a peak, that is even a conservative estimate), then we have some 300K players for 2007. That is way below anyone's estimate for the year.


No, in your previous statement you said what if Toshiba lowballed their press release and the number YTD was 70k, which would be over 20k a month, not for all year.

Correct. When the inclusion of KK was announced, the only information was "for a limited time". That timespan was not specified BTW.

My understanding that it was going to be included until the drive went into mass production. This was supposed to have happened this month, I believe, but is being held up.

So all drives to date will have had KK. I think the rumored addon price drop is a result of going into mass production. Likely what will happen is that once it is mass produced, the price will drop to $150, but you will no longer get the free disc, and maybe not even the remote...

No, in your previous statement you said what if Toshiba lowballed their press release and the number YTD was 70k, which would be over 20k a month, not for all year.


that is not what he said at all.

He said ~175k devices reported for last year ~92k of those are add-ons 175 - 92 ~80 HD DVD players last year

100k-80k=20k we are April that gives 20k/3 per month

My understanding that it was going to be included until the drive went into mass production. This was supposed to have happened this month, I believe, but is being held up.

So all drives to date will have had KK. I think the rumored addon price drop is a result of going into mass production. Likely what will happen is that once it is mass produced, the price will drop to $150, but you will no longer get the free disc, and maybe not even the remote...

I'd consider the above info completely your opinion - with no basis in any real plans.

Of course it is. I thought people understood how the different approaches would affect things long ago. Sony went with a strategy that should result in lower attach rates, but likely higher sales overall (which is the real goal). Microsoft went with a strategy that made sure that it doesn't count game system owners who don't specifically spend money to get the HD movie player part. That should mean higher attach rate, even if lower software sales. I hope HD DVD fans aren't ignorant enough to think that Microsoft stepping up and putting an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360 would have been bad for HD DVD, since it would likely result in lower attach rates. Would any HD DVD fan here be upset if Microsoft sent a free add-on drive to every XBOXLive customer, since it would likely lower attach rates?

Maybe some of us should have discussed this clearly before the formats even launched (over a year ago), as we had enough information to know that HD DVD's approach should lead to a higher attach rate, even if less movies sold. I figured people understood that when some of us said things like that if PS3s sold BDs at a rate to count as 15-20% of regular standalones that it would be significant, that it had to do with this issue. Maybe if we had discussed it more clearly at that time more people would have understood it, as it almost seems like people are going with ignorance on this subject because it helps the side they are rooting for to look better. I still haven't had anybody who thinks that attach rate is the most important factor explain why RCA dropped their CED format and basically admitted defeat to VHS years ago when CED had good attach rates. CED didn't sell as many players as expected and looks like it didn't get much beyond a core of enthusiastic buyers, which is a major problem, even though it can help attach rates.

--Darin

Hindsight is always 20/20

Hindsight is always 20/20If so, why can't some people figure out the attach rate thing even with hindsight? I didn't need hindsight to figure out that the PS3 should have a lower attach rate. I mentioned that if it could provide sales that gave it an effective rate of 15-20% of the standalone players that it would be significant, well before it launched. I thought others understood that the average sales for it should be lower and the question was mostly how much lower (was it going provide an effective rate of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, etc.). I was surprised when multiple people started acting like it should sell discs at the same rate per unit as standalones, when that isn't even close to logical. I wonder how many of them would have predicted that it would sell as many discs per unit as standalones back before it launched, and at a time when the main argument from some HD DVD supporters against the PS3 was that owners wouldn't buy movies for it. Strange how things seemed to have turned around as far as the arguments against the PS3.

I hope that more people will use hindsight and look at the case of CED being dropped by RCA despite a report that although hardware didn't sell as well as they expected, people were buying more discs than they expected. Maybe there will be more comprehension of attach rates and what they do indicate and don't indicate. I wouldn't expect the HD DVD group to be ignorant about attach rates if they were asked whether they wanted Microsoft to put an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360 from now on and were told that attach rates would drop. I have no doubt they would jump on the opportunity to have lower attach rates, but more discs sold.

--Darin

I wouldn't expect the HD DVD group to be ignorant about attach rates if they were asked whether they wanted Microsoft to put an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360 from now on and were told that attach rates would drop. I have no doubt they would jump on the opportunity to have lower attach rates, but more discs sold.

--Darin


how wrong - i hope and pray to god that MS will continue to offer the HD DVD drive as an add on ;) well unless its as cheap and as common as standard dvd rom that is :p

Some people have speculated, looking at Amazon stock that sudden drops and replinishments might be stock moving from one warehouse to another i.e. not really sales.
That makes a LOT of sense - and I think it is true.

A shipment from one warehouse would be debited from one location's inventory when shipped, then would be out of inventory for a while, then credited into inventory for the other site.

This does seem to be exactly what shows up in that chart that sketcha is carrying around with him.

EDIT: On closer examination of the charts I believe that this is EXACTLY what is happening.

Notice near the 15th, the the Bluray drops, is down for a day, and then goes right back to the equivalent level and trend on the second day. That would indicate 2 day shipping between warehouses.

Notice the HD DVD line shows truer signs of sales and replenishment. Notice that BOTH formats got new stock on the 7th - but BD seems to overestimated demand by quite a way.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/quantity-1-1-recent30.jpg

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.


The 28,000 CR figure was for the volume of retailers reporting to Nielsen. We do not know the volumes from those retailers who do not report to Nielsen - that includes Wal*Mart.

Guessing sales volume based on the stock movements is a little bit flaky, but if you accept the Nielsen figure as absolute and the 400/day figure was for week 1 that would put Amazon at a little over 8% share. Factor in the probable missing volume (30% as a guess) and that drops to around 6%.

With regard to the Amazon stock levels then it makes more sense to look at it over a longer period of time.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/amazonstockapr19.jpg

You can clearly see the Amazon sale / Casino Royale effect but it's interesting to note that stock jumped from around 10,000 to over 40,000! It then continued upwards to peak at almost 60,000 units. Make of that what you will.

All the Blu-Ray companies combined only sold 20K standalone players in the whole of 2006, 20K by a single company in the 1st 3 months was pretty good.

I would like to see link for this nuber !!
last time reported it was something like 52% for HD DVD and 48% for Blu-ray standalone players in january..... and if HD DVD was around 60-80K players at that time, Blu-ray can't be at 20K so please post a link...

Marek

I'd consider the above info completely your opinion - with no basis in any real plans.


Wrong again. This is not completely my opinion.

http://www.gamersquad.com/category/Xbox-360/Manufacturing-postponed-on-Xbox-360-HD-DVD-players/

Microsoft is attempting to move this drive into mass production, which it has not yet done. Further, there have been rumors of a MSRP price drop in the near future for some time now, as I stated. The fact that some retailers are already selling the drive for well below $200 is probably the reason for this rumor. It is also simple logic that when things are mass produced, they become cheaper, and the price will drop.

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/dealzmodo-xbox-360-hd-dvd-for-130-or-149-249392.php

Further, back in September, a Microsoft rep stated that the limited window for KK was not a number of units, but a window of time. To me it would seem stupid to pick some arbitrary window with no reasoning, but the window of time between limited production to mass production would seem to be a logical time frame.

So it is my opinion that the KK disc will be removed from the addon package at the time they shift to mass production. But it is very much based on actual facts.

I would like to see link for this nuber !!
last time reported it was something like 52% for HD DVD and 48% for Blu-ray standalone players in january..... and if HD DVD was around 60-80K players at that time, Blu-ray can't be at 20K so please post a link...

Marek


He was probably referring to this:

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070115-8625.html

I believe it says 25k BD standalones by mid-jan 2007. Of course, the numbers in that piece contradict Toshiba's numbers, but it may be where he got the info from.

Just to point out the fallacy of survey's and percentages, I missed this little news tidbit from before:

A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles. NPD determined that most had actually bought neither, based on the fact that the titles they reported purchasing were not released in either format.

:D

Obviously consumers still don't really know what HD-DVD and Blu-ray are. Another sign the war is far from over.

So it is my opinion that the KK disc will be removed from the addon package at the time they shift to mass production. But it is very much based on actual facts.

So you think that Amazon and newegg are shipping the add-on with KK without even mentioning it?

Wrong again. This is not completely my opinion.


I was specifically referring to the highlighted portion.

Likely what will happen is that once it is mass produced, the price will drop to $150, but you will no longer get the free disc, and maybe not even the remote

And can someone tell me the meaning of "mass produced" as opposed to how it is produced now ?

but if you accept the Nielsen figure as absolute and the 400/day figure was for week 1

Are you saying the number was for the 1st week ?

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/amazonstockapr19.jpg

You can clearly see the Amazon sale / Casino Royale effect but it's interesting to note that stock jumped from around 10,000 to over 40,000! It then continued upwards to peak at almost 60,000 units. Make of that what you will.

I've no idea why the stock level went up so much. Clearly some problem with Amazon's sales/inventory guessing software or someone drinking some koolaid about how well BD will sell.

When did Amazon have the BD titles sale ? Was that before or after the stock pileup ?

A recent NPD survey showed 83% of DVD buyers said they had bought HD DVD titles, and 69% said they had bought BD titles. NPD determined that most had actually bought neither, based on the fact that the titles they reported purchasing were not released in either format.

Hmmm. I heard somewhere that they have started selling HD DVD and Blu-ray discs. So obviously the dvds I bought in wal-mart from the $5 bin are those, right ? They won't be selling me old stuff if something new has come, correct ?

When did Amazon have the BD titles sale ? Was that before or after the stock pileup ?

It started March 5 and went on for two weeks (one week less than expected).

This does seem to be exactly what shows up in that chart that sketcha is carrying around with him.
LOL!!!

Please bear in mind that I was not the OP of that chart and I only made a few comments on it as did many of us.

Still... that was pretty funny. :D

EDIT: On closer examination of the charts I believe that this is EXACTLY what is happening.
Well that about wraps it up then. :rolleyes:

Are you saying the number was for the 1st week ?



I've no idea why the stock level went up so much. Clearly some problem with Amazon's sales/inventory guessing software or someone drinking some koolaid about how well BD will sell.

When did Amazon have the BD titles sale ? Was that before or after the stock pileup ?

Perhaps the stock went up because Sony wanted to be able to say they SHIPPED 100K copies of CR?

Perhaps the stock went up because Sony wanted to be able to say they SHIPPED 100K copies of CR?
Of course!!!

And it remains that high because...?

It started March 5 and went on for two weeks (one week less than expected).

Looks like the stock went up somewhere around March 12th i.e. one week after the sale started.

We know BD sales jumped up during the sale - which may have prompted their inventory ordering system to order a lot of stock - which ofcourse never got depleted much.

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 4/15/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
2 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
3 HAPPY FEET (WB, $39.99)
4 * PAYBACK: DIRECTOR'S CUT (PAR, $29.99)
5 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)
6 * A SCANNER DARKLY (WB, $28.99)
7 TROY (WB, $28.99)
8 FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)
9 GOODFELLAS (WB, $28.99)
10 BABEL (PAR, $39.99)

TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 4/15/2007

Powered By RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CASINO ROYALE (SONY, $38.96)
2 HAPPY FEET (WB, $34.99)
3 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
4 * PAYBACK: DIRECTOR'S CUT (PAR, $29.99)
5 * A SCANNER DARKLY (WB, $28.99)
6 KING ARTHUR (BV, $29.99)
7 THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS (SONY, $38.96)
8 ERAGON (FOX, $39.98)
9 THE PRESTIGE (BV, $34.99)
10 THE FIFTH ELEMENT (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

That makes a LOT of sense - and I think it is true.

A shipment from one warehouse would be debited from one location's inventory when shipped, then would be out of inventory for a while, then credited into inventory for the other site.

This does seem to be exactly what shows up in that chart that sketcha is carrying around with him.

EDIT: On closer examination of the charts I believe that this is EXACTLY what is happening.

Notice near the 15th, the the Bluray drops, is down for a day, and then goes right back to the equivalent level and trend on the second day. That would indicate 2 day shipping between warehouses.

Notice the HD DVD line shows truer signs of sales and replenishment. Notice that BOTH formats got new stock on the 7th - but BD seems to overestimated demand by quite a way.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/quantity-1-1-recent30.jpg


Oh, come on! Why would Amazon move inventory from one warehouse to another? Why would Amazon incur this extra transport cost just to house something in a different warehouse? And why would they do it as often as it would appear to occur if this was the actual explanation?

Amazon's shipping system is setup so that an item will ship from the nearest warehouse that has the item in stock. So if I order a disc and it isn't in stock in their Lexington warehouse, it will check the next nearest warehouse. Also, discs aren't stocked in all wareshouses. For example, Amazon's warehouse in Lexington KY has books, discs, CD's etc. Their warehouse in the Cincy area houses electronics, but no discs, books, etc.

Since Amazon has no storefront at its warehouses, there is little benefit for them to just move inventory from one warehouse to another, unless they are closing down a wareshouse.

This moving inventory theory is just silly, unless you think Amazon is trying to come up with ways to waste money. The only cost advantage they may gain from having equally stocked warehouses would be from multiple title orders. If I order three titles and they must ship from three warehouses, there would be some added cost for the extra packaging and shipping. However, if my nearest warehouse didn't have all three, the system could just check for the next nearest that did and ship from there. So moving inventory around really would only help of all your warehouses had a poor distribution of titles (and then you would only need to requalize your inventory a few times a year).

And even if they do move inventory, there is no indication that it is checked out of inventory, and then back in. Amazon is still in possesion of the items, it is just a matter if it is stored in a warehouse, or on a transit truck. With my employer, we manufacture items at my location and warehouse and ship in Florence, KY. We check items into inventory here, and then move them there by truck. If a customer orders an intem in transit, it just doesn't ship until it arrives there, usually the same day.

The only real question to ask here is why is the BD inventory 5X higher? My theory would be that Sony has offered Amazon a deal, where they can basically stock an unlimited number of discs, and return any unsold ones back to their distributor (so basically Amazon can stock 55k of them, pay for the ones the sell, and eventually return all excess at no cost to Amazon). HD-DVD is probably treating their discs like standard DVD's. Amazon has to buy them, and if they don't sell, Amazon eats it.

So it would be no risk to Amazon to stock 55k in case there is a BD explosion. If HD-DVD offered them the same deal, you would probably see stock levels change to 35-40k for each format.

Of course!!!

And it remains that high because...?


They didn't sell many... ?

The only real question to ask here is why is the BD inventory 5X higher? My theory would be that Sony has offered Amazon a deal, where they can basically stock an unlimited number of discs, and return any unsold ones back to their distributor (so basically Amazon can stock 55k of them, pay for the ones the sell, and eventually return all excess at no cost to Amazon). HD-DVD is probably treating their discs like standard DVD's. Amazon has to buy them, and if they don't sell, Amazon eats it.

So it would be no risk to Amazon to stock 55k in case there is a BD explosion. If HD-DVD offered them the same deal, you would probably see stock levels change to 35-40k for each format.

That's an interesting explanation. If true, then they probably are sending back old titles that don't sell, keeping inventory numbers about the same. Even so, that's alot of warehouse space, that could be used for something else. I still don't see a justification for it.
J

I still don't see a justification for it.
J

I do, so Sketcher can continue to post it here as proof of... Well, something :p

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 4/15/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
2 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
3 HAPPY FEET (WB, $39.99)
4 * PAYBACK: DIRECTOR'S CUT (PAR, $29.99)
5 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)
6 * A SCANNER DARKLY (WB, $28.99)
7 TROY (WB, $28.99)
8 FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)
9 GOODFELLAS (WB, $28.99)
10 BABEL (PAR, $39.99)

TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 4/15/2007

Powered By RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CASINO ROYALE (SONY, $38.96)
2 HAPPY FEET (WB, $34.99)
3 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
4 * PAYBACK: DIRECTOR'S CUT (PAR, $29.99)
5 * A SCANNER DARKLY (WB, $28.99)
6 KING ARTHUR (BV, $29.99)
7 THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS (SONY, $38.96)
8 ERAGON (FOX, $39.98)
9 THE PRESTIGE (BV, $34.99)
10 THE FIFTH ELEMENT (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

The disparity between rentrak and amazon widens. Take T5E, it's on rentrak list every week as far as i can recall, and it is nowhere on amazon.

The disparity between rentrak and amazon widens. Take T5E, it's on rentrak list every week as far as i can recall, and it is nowhere on amazon.

Same with "Troy," "Goodfellas" and "Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas." These HD-DVD movies are invisible on amazon.com but constantly rank in the Top 10 on rentrak. WTF??!! :confused:

The only cost advantage they may gain from having equally stocked warehouses would be from multiple title orders.

The other benefit might be if it costs Amazon different amounts to ship from a nearby location compared to a far off location. In that case it may be beneficial to ship inventory around periodically depending on where the sales originate.

The other reason would be if they get their stock in one location and then distribute to other warehouses.

And even if they do move inventory, there is no indication that it is checked out of inventory, and then back in. Amazon is still in possesion of the items, it is just a matter if it is stored in a warehouse, or on a transit truck.

If a 3rd party is moving the inventory - they may do this check in and out. More over - they would keep track of inventory at ware house lvel and they need to move them around as the inventory gets redistributed.

HD-DVD is probably treating their discs like standard DVD's. Amazon has to buy them, and if they don't sell, Amazon eats it.

AFAIK, retailers can send back unsold DVDs and get their money back.

I do, so Sketcher can continue to post it here as proof of... Well, something :p
I'll tell ya' where YOU can post it! :p

:)

The only real question to ask here is why is the BD inventory 5X higher? My theory would be that Sony has offered Amazon a deal, where they can basically stock an unlimited number of discs, and return any unsold ones back to their distributor (so basically Amazon can stock 55k of them, pay for the ones the sell, and eventually return all excess at no cost to Amazon). HD-DVD is probably treating their discs like standard DVD's. Amazon has to buy them, and if they don't sell, Amazon eats it. Where are actual Amazon sales figures (not sales rankings)?

I went through the eproduct listing for BD movies and noticed that Rocky Balboa had 4000 disks. Happy Feet was about 2400. A handful of movies from the march sale like KoH,XMen3, T5E BHD and Kungfu Hustle has about 1000-2000.

Other than Balboa, these movies are now $5-$8 more than they were a month ago in that sale, so it will take a while before people are willing to pay more for them.

The stocking levels of the other titles look normal, and are typically in the 100-200 range. My suspicion is that somewhere in there, there is automated buying program(s) that is basing reorders based on previous sales volumes.

I don't detect any anomaly in the numbers. And if we take a look at the top seller rankings and follow the snapshots daily, it should show any strange behaviour. Their movement (for the ones in stock) look normal to me, and other than the April15 skirmish, look consistent once we remove the future releases from the sales vs rankings correlation.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/top.cfm?db=dvd

How do you think the news of Wal-Mart ordering 2 million Chinese HD-DVD players (looks like a holiday delivery) will effect the Nielsen ratings once they hit shelves.

I'm assuming that if Wal-Mart will be carrying players in every store, they will also have discs too... :eek:

How do you think the news of Wal-Mart ordering 2 million Chinese HD-DVD players (looks like a summer delivery) will effect the Nielsen ratings once they hit shelves.I would wait and see what exactly this 2 million order forms is about before assuming something like that since so far there is a serious lack of information on what exactly Fuh Yuan is making/selling/expecting.

I'll tell ya' where YOU can post it! :p

:)


:D

I would wait and see what exactly this 2 million order forms is about before assuming something like that since so far there is a serious lack of information on what exactly Fuh Yuan is making/selling/expecting.

They are making an HD-DVD drive for Wal-Mart. I guess Wal-Mart could sell the bare drive, but more likely, it will be in a player.

It is definately an HD-DVD drive though, because the press release states that it will read both DVD and HD-DVD, an explains that HD-DVD discs can be manufactured on existing DVD lines.

So no mistaking it is HD-DVD, and the article clearly states that the first order to be filled will be a 2 million unit order for Wal-Mart.

What lack of information are you refering to?

How do you think the news of Wal-Mart ordering 2 million Chinese HD-DVD players (looks like a holiday delivery) will effect the Nielsen ratings once they hit shelves.

I'm assuming that if Wal-Mart will be carrying players in every store, they will also have discs too... :eek:

I think - if our interpretation of the translation is correct - this is extremely significant news - that can permanently tilt the balance in this format war.

As to what happens to videoscan numbers - we don't have to worry about that till the players actually hit the store. But this very news can boost HD DVD greatly - since now there will be anticipation that HD DVD is sure to survive the format war.

I wouldn't count your players before they're hatched. I'm not sure we have rock solid information on these 2 million Wal-Mart players just yet.

I wouldn't count your players before they're hatched. I'm not sure we have rock solid information on these 2 million Wal-Mart players just yet.

Common, we thrive on scant information. That is our job here ... :)

Common, we thrive on scant information. That is our job here ... :)

Did I miss a link? I haven't seen anything about this 2 million wal-mart thingie...

I wouldn't count your players before they're hatched. I'm not sure we have rock solid information on these 2 million Wal-Mart players just yet.

You don't have your Xbox 360 addon update yet either, which I long ago said you would never have by March...

But I digress...

The only ambiguity is if Wal-mart is purchasing players, or HD-DVD PC drives. I highly doubt it would be the latter though, as Wal-mart sells no generic PC drives that I've ever seen. They are all HP's pretty much. The Great Wall group is also an electronics integrator. While they do specialize in PC peripherals, they have also manufactured LCD TV's and other consumer devices.

Plus if Fuh Yuan is making the drives, why would they need to send them to an integrator to sell them as bare drives. An intergrator would integrate them into another product, aka a standalone player. So Fuh Yuan with TDK will make the bare drive. The drive is sent to Great Wall, who intergrates it into a standalone player, which is then shipped to Wal-Mart.

And FYI, Great Wall is a multi-billion dollar government owned CE manufacturer. They are considered one of the Top 10 brands in China. So this is no small potatoes outfit.

Did I miss a link? I haven't seen anything about this 2 million wal-mart thingie...

Here is the thread
Link (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=836632)

And if it is true as it does appear to be. HD-DVD isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I wouldn't count your players before they're hatched. I'm not sure we have rock solid information on these 2 million Wal-Mart players just yet.

I noticed you tried to tell them it was targeted for $299, and they glazed right over it talking about how cool it will be when the $99 players hit this year. People only see what they want to see.

This is undoubtedly good news for HD DVD though if it turns out to be true.

It should be good news for HDDVD at least in the short term regarding the format war... but once this genie is out of the bottle does anyone else think may be trouble for the rest of the CE (including Toshiba, seeing how this player will be their main competitor), seeing how this very thing is what destroyed profitability in the DVD Player market? Even if HDDVD survives, Blu-ray isn't going anywhere though I hope they wouldn't resort to the same tactics. If PS3 sales hold to the PS2 pattern, they'll sell 4-5 times as many for holidays 07.

I could see my dad buying one of these things like the Apex DVD player he got. Unfortunately, I expect it's quality will be similar.

Update guys:

Wal-Mart is buying the COMPLETE player for $50, not just the drive, so the price will likely be much less than $299. My guess would be $149-$199.

The original article indicated Wal-Mart was buying "machine cores" for $50. In the second article, the two online translators that I ran it through called the $499 MSRP Toshiba player (old A2 price or current A20?) a "machine core". I think the original OP saw "core" and assumed it meant bare drive. Actually, it is a problem in the online Chinese translators that result in fully functional players being called "machine cores".

Knowing this, it would appear Wal-Mart is paying $50 per player. Of course, there are freight fees and other costs that run up the base price. Then Wal-Mart will mark up from that.

It should be good news for HDDVD at least in the short term regarding the format war... but once this genie is out of the bottle does anyone else think may be trouble for the rest of the CE (including Toshiba, seeing how this player will be their main competitor), seeing how this very thing is what destroyed profitability in the DVD Player market? Even if HDDVD survives, Blu-ray isn't going anywhere though I hope they wouldn't resort to the same tactics. If PS3 sales hold to the PS2 pattern, they'll sell 4-5 times as many for holidays 07.

I could see my dad buying one of these things like the Apex DVD player he got. Unfortunately, I expect it's quality will be similar.

Hey, I'm still using my Apex DVD player in the guest bedroom (AD-1500). The thing is a tank and will play anything. There was even a disc released once that was misauthored and wouldn't play in my Sony or Samsung player, but no problem in my Apex. I also had three defective discs that wouldn't play in my Sony (didn't have the Samsung yet), and the Apex had no problem.

If PS3 sales hold to the PS2 pattern, they'll sell 4-5 times as many for holidays 07.

Did you see the NPD numbers today ? ;)

Wal-Mart is buying the COMPLETE player for $50, not just the drive, so the price will likely be much less than $299. My guess would be $149-$199.

The photo shows the drive. The price makes sense too.

http://www.udn.com/2007/4/16/NEWS/MEDIA/3804769-1594596.JPG

The photo shows the drive. The price makes sense too.

http://www.udn.com/2007/4/16/NEWS/MEDIA/3804769-1594596.JPG

Yes, but the article says they will be competing against the $599 Philips machine core and the Toshiba $499 machine core. They feel they will have a market advantage if the sell their machine core at $299.

Wal-Mart bought 2 million of their machine cores, worth up to $100 million (people seem to be glossing over the "up to" part, which means Wal-Mart may be getting them for less).

What do you think machine core means?

Also, if you look at the picture, he is holding an empty housing. There are no electronics or optics. SInce that is the picture, does it mean that are just selling an empty shell?

Update guys:

Wal-Mart is buying the COMPLETE player for $50, not just the drive, so the price will likely be much less than $299. My guess would be $149-$199.

The original article indicated Wal-Mart was buying "machine cores" for $50. In the second article, the two online translators that I ran it through called the $499 MSRP Toshiba player (old A2 price or current A20?) a "machine core". I think the original OP saw "core" and assumed it meant bare drive. Actually, it is a problem in the online Chinese translators that result in fully functional players being called "machine cores".

Knowing this, it would appear Wal-Mart is paying $50 per player. Of course, there are freight fees and other costs that run up the base price. Then Wal-Mart will mark up from that.

That seems a little preposterous at this point.

That seems a little preposterous at this point.


Why? You can sell a Chinese DVD player for $25 US. What are the manufacturing costs there? $5? $10? This is for a red laser based drive.

In Januray, A blue laser diode was around $25-$30 (red laser is just a buck or two), and the price was only that high because of a shortage in supply. If that shortage is eliminated, that part may drop to $5-$10. The manufacturing cost may be $25 with blue laser, and then a few bucks more for licensing AVC, VC-1, MPEG-2, etc. These things will probably just have an optical out that gives you DTS. Probably a set of component outs and maybe HDMI. They will probably be 1080i outputs. It will likely be bare bones like most Chinese brand players.

I don't think going from a $5-10 cost for DVD to a $25-$35 cost for blue laser is preposterous. Especially not in quantities of 2 million...

Please take the Walmart discussion elsewhere. It doesn't in any way shape or form belong in this thread.

I went through the eproduct listing for BD movies and noticed that Rocky Balboa had 4000 disks. Happy Feet was about 2400. A handful of movies from the march sale like KoH,XMen3, T5E BHD and Kungfu Hustle has about 1000-2000.

Other than Balboa, these movies are now $5-$8 more than they were a month ago in that sale, so it will take a while before people are willing to pay more for them.

The stocking levels of the other titles look normal, and are typically in the 100-200 range. My suspicion is that somewhere in there, there is automated buying program(s) that is basing reorders based on previous sales volumes.

I don't detect any anomaly in the numbers. And if we take a look at the top seller rankings and follow the snapshots daily, it should show any strange behaviour. Their movement (for the ones in stock) look normal to me, and other than the April15 skirmish, look consistent once we remove the future releases from the sales vs rankings correlation.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/top.cfm?db=dvd
I've been looking at those stock levels for a while now and I'm still at a loss about why Amazon's disc stock for Blu-ray is ever so much higher than HD DVD. The number of titles is still about the same. The March sale might have triggered some extra buys, but if so, we might also see a bump in HD DVD stock levels from the April 15 HD DVD buy.

In any case, should be interesting to see tomorrow's Nielsen data (assuming it gets posted tomorrow).

In any case, should be interesting to see tomorrow's Nielsen data (assuming it gets posted tomorrow) Understatement of the year from you Icemage. :D

Looking forward to seeing you do the spreadsheet magic on the data. :)

Please take the Walmart discussion elsewhere. It doesn't in any way shape or form belong in this thread. A discussion of current or imminent Wal-Mart sales data not included in the Nielson/Videoscan numbers probably has a place in this thread if we are putting that in the context of total HD discs sales.

But hardware that might be sold at Wal-mart is a bit more off topic and drifting as that is way future sales it might affect. ;)

Understatement of the year from you Icemage. :D

Looking forward to seeing you do the spreadsheet magic on the data. :)
Heh. Might be a bit late with my analysis tomorrow. Work's been a bear - I just turned in my 2 week notice at the beginning of the week and haven't had much energy to do anything else for the past 5 days. Fortunately this state of affairs only lasts till next Friday, at which point I'm treating myself to a nice healthy chunk of time of non-employment to recharge the creative batteries. :)

The only real question to ask here is why is the BD inventory 5X higher? My theory would be that Sony has offered Amazon a deal, where they can basically stock an unlimited number of discs, and return any unsold ones back to their distributor (so basically Amazon can stock 55k of them, pay for the ones the sell, and eventually return all excess at no cost to Amazon). HD-DVD is probably treating their discs like standard DVD's. Amazon has to buy them, and if they don't sell, Amazon eats it.

So it would be no risk to Amazon to stock 55k in case there is a BD explosion. If HD-DVD offered them the same deal, you would probably see stock levels change to 35-40k for each format. I think this is probable . Amazon may have negotiated or Sony or the BDA studios may have offered a 100% buyback deal or may have advanced shipped on special pricing or compensated for inventory storage for those Blu-ray titles.

Then again, there is not that much cost for storing a ton of these items.

Once, I was in charge of liquidating a huge stock of 1,000,000 CD-Roms from a defunct mail order company, in Southern California.

When I did the physical inventory of the stockage, I was rather shocked on how small the space the items took up when boxed and palleted. A lot fits on a pallet and it dozen take that much space to store it. So if the items were refundable or on-credit and insured for loss or damage , there's not a lot of downside to holding a lot in inventory, if you are not tying up cash in buying them.

I am only going to briefly discuss the Walmart thing.

A couple of months ago I posted some information, maybe even in this thread, about the Chinese getting permission from the HD DVD group to make a Chinese only HD DVD player.

I also mentioned that this could mean cheap chinese players in America this year.

Quite a few BD supporters completely dismissed the argument and said that the Chinese and their players were pretty much a non-factor. IIRC Darin argued that it wouldnt have any effect because the chinese are too poor to buy HD DVD players and someone else argued that it wouldnt matter because the Chinese already had a red laser based HD DVD system.

I said it would matter because economies of scale would allow the Chinese to produce dirt cheap HD DVD players for the American market. Well, folks, you are now seeing the implications of that little bit of news.

If Walmart ordered 2 million HD DVD players (and it has not been confirmed), they must know something that the BD brain trust here doesnt, because they would never back a losing horse because they would lose money and Walmart doesnt like to lose money.

We shall see how this all plays out wont we.

PS3 hardware sales have nose dived across the world, it will be interesting to see the effects on disc purchases in the coming months, not many more new owners wanting to try out Blu-Ray.

Sales-related article on Video Business (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6435141.html).

Top Blu-ray title for March: Casino Royale (59,000 units)
Top HD DVD title for March: The Departed (16,000 units, surpassing the 13,000 it sold in February)

HD DVD players have gotten a sales boost since Toshiba lowered the price on its bottom line player to $399 on April 1 (no specific monthly figures given)

X360 Dec 06 1,320,250
X360 Jan 07 332,250
X360 Feb 07 257,500
X360 Mar 07 199,000

---
PS3 Mar 07 130,000
PS2 Mar 07 280,000
NDS Mar07 508,000
WII Mar 07 259,000
--------------

If I remember the Feb numbers correctly, did the PS2 and NDS both increased their monthly numbers? And did everyone else just fall off a cliff?

Does anyone have the Feb numbers for PS3 and PS2?

PS3 Feb was 127,000. February though was a 4 week month for NPD while march was a 5 week month.
Motorstorm, Home and whatnot appeared to not help at all it seems.

XBox sales probably dropped due to the announcement of Elite.

I noticed you tried to tell them it was targeted for $299, and they glazed right over it talking about how cool it will be when the $99 players hit this year. People only see what they want to see.

This is undoubtedly good news for HD DVD though if it turns out to be true.
It probably won't be $99. But it doesn't compute that it will be $299, either. That is too close to what players are selling for now or will be by the time these hit the shelves. That makes the $199 figure mentioned seem more likely. ;)

not many more new owners wanting to try out Blu-Ray.

Oh, man, still flogging that dead horse?! A large percentage of PS3 owners are BD supporters who didn't want to pay $800 for a player with fewer features. Another large percentage are people who intend to buy their favourite titles as well as games. I doubt there are many people who want to "try it out" and those who do would watch Talledega nights or rent. Those people did it months ago.

Are you still going to be spinning this line 5 years from now? Is DVD successful only because 100m PS2 owners "tried out" 1 disc each?

PS3 Feb was 127,000. February though was a 4 week month for NPD while march was a 5 week month.
Motorstorm, Home and whatnot appeared to not help at all it seems.

XBox sales probably dropped due to the announcement of Elite.

In other related news, vgcharts stopped giving NPD info and have started their own weekly numbers. It seems NPD threatened VGChartz with a lawsuit ... Interestingly VGChartz is using smaller retailer numbers to extrapolate the numbers and they got wii & 360 wrong. Guiterhero was completely wrong (it did more than Motorstorm even though it had only 4 days in the moth).

BTW, The latest week is brutal for PS3 - selling less than half of 360..

Wii 70,570
360 43,341
PS3 18,655

I'd say PS3 numbers are coming low compared to estimates month after month. With the 2M HD DVD walmart order - I won't be surprised if in '08 HD DVD stand alones sell more than PS3 in the US.

In other related news, vgcharts stopped giving NPD info and have started their own weekly numbers. It seems NPD threatened VGChartz with a lawsuit ... Interestingly VGChartz is using smaller retailer numbers to extrapolate the numbers and they got wii & 360 wrong. Guiterhero was completely wrong (it did more than Motorstorm even though it had only 4 days in the moth).

BTW, The latest week is brutal for PS3 - selling less than half of 360..



I'd say PS3 numbers are coming low compared to estimates month after month. With the 2M HD DVD walmart order - I won't be surprised if in '08 HD DVD stand alones sell more than PS3 in the US.

So how many PS3 are out there now? It seems the March weekly run rate was lower if the feb numbers were 4 weeks and March 5 weeks. I actually get my PS3 tomorrow!

Chris

not many more new owners wanting to try out Blu-Ray.

Every single PS3 owner purchases Blu-Ray discs...that is if they want to use the machine for anything other than helping cure cancer or playing PS2 games.

Every single PS3 owner purchases Blu-Ray discs...that is if they want to use the machine for anything other than helping cure cancer or playing PS2 games.

Is that meant to be funny?

I obviously wasn't including games, not that PS3 owners are buying any games at the moment, if you look at sales figures.

you still going to be spinning this line 5 years from now? Is DVD successful only because 100m PS2 owners "tried out" 1 disc each?

DVD's success has almost nothing to do with the PS2. It's the other way around. DVD was already well entrenched, and indeed the "most successful product launch in history", LONG before the PS2 was even released. There were already 15 million DVD players in 13 million homes (12% of US homes) and DVD was the established new video standard before the VERY FIRST PS2 was ever sold.

Now, on the flipside, the PS2s inclusion of DVD was a MAJOR factor in its success, especially in Japan. At the Japanese launch, the PS2 was the cheapest DVD player available, so many people bought it exclusively for that purpose, even if they weren't gamers. The situation was similar, but not identical in the US, as $200-250 DVD players were relatively commonplace by that time. However, for people in the market for a DVD player, an extra $50-100 to be able to play the PS2's small library (at the time) and the PS1s MASSIVE library was VERY tempting, and TONS of units were sold as a result.

Yes, by the end of 2001 (almost FOUR YEARS after DVD's launch, but only 13 months after the PS2s) 12% of DVD players WERE in fact PS2s. But the PS2s success was a reflection of DVDs success, not the other way around.

DVD's success has almost nothing to do with the PS2.

Lol, you missed my point spectacularly there! I was asking Joffy if that's what he believed not stating what I believed.

Anyway the PS2 was a big factor in DVD's success. I'm not saying it wouldn't have been successful anyway but a lot of people (most outside the US) found the PS2 was the first DVD player they owned because it was either cheaper than a standalone or they would have bought one anyway. DVD-roms played a big role in the early years for the same reason

Ahh, I see your original intention now. My bad. But I'm not the only one who missed the other's point. :)

You just made mine for me. A lot of people bought the PS2 as their first DVD player because it was cheaper or price competitive with standalone players. But they would have bought a standalone player anyway; they either saw the added value for no extra investment, or might have waited for the price to drop another $50. If the PS2 had a CD-ROM drive, it would likely have sold less than half the units it did, because no one would have bought it as a DVD player. But DVD still would have been a smash, because it already was a smash before the PS2 came along.

DVD's success has almost nothing to do with the PS2. It's the other way around. DVD was already well entrenched, and indeed the "most successful product launch in history", LONG before the PS2 was even released. There were already 15 million DVD players in 13 million homes (12% of US homes) and DVD was the established new video standard before the VERY FIRST PS2 was ever sold.

Now, on the flipside, the PS2s inclusion of DVD was a MAJOR factor in its success, especially in Japan. At the Japanese launch, the PS2 was the cheapest DVD player available, so many people bought it exclusively for that purpose, even if they weren't gamers. The situation was similar, but not identical in the US, as $200-250 DVD players were relatively commonplace by that time. However, for people in the market for a DVD player, an extra $50-100 to be able to play the PS2's small library (at the time) and the PS1s MASSIVE library was VERY tempting, and TONS of units were sold as a result.

Yes, by the end of 2001 (almost FOUR YEARS after DVD's launch, but only 13 months after the PS2s) 12% of DVD players WERE in fact PS2s. But the PS2s success was a reflection of DVDs success, not the other way around.

Things don't happen overnight.

From design decision to actual boxes rolling off the factories is measured in years. Sony's gamble was when they looked past CD-rom and decided to include a DVD-rom drive within a PS2 and they did this before it was certain that DVDs were even going to stick around. Looking back, we can make several snide comments about the who helped who. In reality, it probably was mutually synergistic.

This time around, all participants are trying to shrink those years into months, and whether they succeed or not, we don't really know yet. Not for sure anyway. The good thing is that all these stuff are cheap, so if one dies, other than bruised egos, there's really no real harm done.

I'd say PS3 numbers are coming low compared to estimates month after month. With the 2M HD DVD walmart order - I won't be surprised if in '08 HD DVD stand alones sell more than PS3 in the US.
To understand the low PS3 sales numbers, you simply have to look at why anyone would buy a PS3. It has the primary target of a gamer and a secondary target of a HT enthusiast. Sony spins the PS3 as a hybrid entertainment device, but that is forward thinking that may or may not happen. So, let's take the gamer. You are going to sell the PS3 initially to hardcore gamers and Sony fans without having any software at all. Those numbers generally spike at launch and then drop. The casual gamer, however, sees the $599 price tag and takes a hard look at the availible games. Without having games, he doesn't buy, period. The price is a barrier, but not having games is a brick wall. When the competition has a cheaper console that is highly capable, as is the case with the X360, then this casual gamer is going to pass on the PS3 and buy a X360. This hurts Sony because a fence-sitter who buys a X360 is not going to buy an additional PS3. This casual gamer is important for Sony to attract. How does Sony do that with a $599 console price? Well, crank out great games and lots of them. If this happens, then a demand is created for the PS3 and gamers will begin to place a higher utility for the $599 price. HUGE, BIG, MASSIVE titles will see spikes in PS3 sales, so the more big games, the more PS3 sales.

Up to this point, Sony has not even broke into this gamer market because of the lack of games. However, the HT enthusiast sees the PS3 as a very capable Blu-ray player that at launch of the format(and still continues for the most part) was not only the cheapest, but also the best value and one of, if not the best players out. So, the PS3 sold a big number of units to people who would never have bought a gaming console if there had been good, cheap BD players on the market. I believe this was vital for Sony's PS3 sales numbers early on because it allowed Sony to sell PS3's(to other than the hardcore fans) despite not having many games at all. As cheaper and full featured BD players come out, fewer and fewer PS3's will be sold as BD players. Sony had better get out some great games so they can continue to sell the PS3. At this point in 2007, if great BD titles come out, then people are still going to be tempted to buy the PS3 to get into Blu to be able to watch the high def BD. Again, releasing GREAT movies is huge and will generate sales here. Its very much software driven.

So, I don't see the current low PS3 sales as a continuing trend. Its all dependant on software. This is why we see Amazon spikes in sales ranks. When there are weeks with good titles coming out, then you see that format's numbers jump. Its very simple. The PS3 hardware will begin to sell to its primary target gamer audience when they get a number of good games out. This will far surpass any Chinese HD DVD sales numbers. I would say that Sony will sell 2M PS3's in Nov-Dec of 2007 alone with the big holiday season push. Then, in 2008, the PS3 will continue to sell pretty well at maybe 200,000-600,000 units per month with more potential if great games continue to develop.

it already was a smash before the PS2 came along.

I don't agree that it was a smash. I knew no one who owned a standalone player at the time and a small handful that had DVD-rom drives. PS2 bought it to the mainstream or the cusp of the mainstream because most people didn't want to pay $500 for a DVD player when "VHS is good enough" and they couldn't tell the difference between VHS and DVD.

DVD would have got there, it just would have taken longer

The casual gamer, however, sees the $599 price tag and takes a hard look at the availible games.

I don't - definitely - want to get into a gaming argument here. Just want to say though that casual gamer looks at $599 and moves on (probably buys PS2/Wii/360) - irrespective of games. Just as a casual movie watcher will just ignore a BD player at $1,000 - irrespective of available software. Software will only help to a certain extent i.e. it is a necessary though not a sufficient condition.

I would say that Sony will sell 2M PS3's in Nov-Dec of 2007 alone with the big holiday season push. Then, in 2008, the PS3 will continue to sell pretty well at maybe 200,000-600,000 units per month with more potential if great games continue to develop.

I've heard this often enough - depends a lot on price cuts. We will come back here after that period. But it looks like PS3 will come in below 100K this month - something no console has done after 2002(3?) when xbox clocked in 80K.

Anyway, I'll not be posting about this topic. It is just interesting from HiDef perspective to see where it could go with the 2M Walmart HD DVD news - all our assumptions of spectacularly larger BD ownership could turn on its head.

I don't agree that it was a smash. I knew no one who owned a standalone player at the time and a small handful that had DVD-rom drives.

You should have known someone who had one, unless you were a college student at the time. More than one out of every ten homes had at least one, and there were 3 million players that were people's 2nd or 3rd units. There were more DVD players in US homes then there are currently Xbox 360s in the world, more than total worldwide sales of the Sega Master System, Dreamcast or Saturn, and more than twice as many as there are currently Wiis in the world. There were about as many people in the US who had a DVD player at the end of 2000 as there are current subscribers to satellite radio (both services combined). And I imagine you've known somebody at some point who had (or has) several of those. Including myself, I knew at least 8 people who had DVD players when the PS2 was launched in November of 2000, and I was one of three of those who were on their 2nd player.

I would wait and see what exactly this 2 million order forms is about before assuming something like that since so far there is a serious lack of information on what exactly Fuh Yuan is making/selling/expecting.

That is certainly a good plan. Engadget now has a correction (http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/) saying that it is Blu-ray players that were ordered. When it is posted in English I will worry about it.

/carmi

You should have known someone who had one

I didn't. I'm in Britain so you have to remember we didn't get DVD until summer 98. I'm not just talking about friends, I'm talking about neighbours, family and acquaintances.

That is certainly a good plan. Engadget now has a correction (http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/) saying that it is Blu-ray players that were ordered. When it is posted in English I will worry about it.

/carmi

No thats not what it says. I'm really surprised how people spin the news that they link. Why can't you just give quote what it actually says ?

Update: Pull back the reigns HD DVD fanboys, Akihabara now says that they've made a "huge mistake" with their translation: the original source called it "藍光 HD DVD and 藍光 means Blu-RAY." In other words, Blu-ray HD DVD. Huh? Word to the wise: since both formats use blue lasers, it's best to wait for an English press release before either camp celebrates.

Seems to me the symbol is not for blu-ray but blue light (i.e. blue laser). I guess they were differentiating between BL HD DVD and upconverting DVD players (which the marketing people try to mis-name HDDVD).

No thats not what it says. I'm really surprised how people spin the news that they link. Why can't you just give quote what it actually says ?


Seems to me the symbol is not for blu-ray but blue light (i.e. blue laser). I guess they were differentiating between BL HD DVD and upconverting DVD players (which the marketing people try to mis-name HDDVD).

Maybe it's a dual format player.

Edit: As TDK is mentioned in the article is anyone aware of any HD DVD developments that TDK are involved in? They don't mention the format anywhere on their website. Just Blu-ray:

http://www.tdk.com/consumer/bluray/index.html

Looks like Walmart have ordered BD devices after all. :)

Just because they track US and Canadian sales doesn't mean they can't disaggregate US and Canadian sales. :)

Just another example, this time from Variety (http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117955798.html?categoryid=1009&cs=1) (Nov. 16):



And another (http://www.planetxbox360.com/index.php/articledetails/show/1192):



The only figure specifically pertaining to "North America" is the 175,000 total players in 2006. To correct that, as Canada population is about one tenth that of the US, we can have an estimate that it was 158,000 for the US and 17,000 for Canada.

That would give 66,000 standalone HD DVD players for the US in 2006.

The 100,000 standalone players figures is also for the US. That would yield 34,000 players sold in 2007 for the US. I think now that 66,000-75,000 is a pretty accurate number for HD DVD sales in 2006. Probably closer to 66,000.

I do think as of the end of March, more than 100,000 HD DVD units were sold since inception. I know what the Toshiba press release said, but I think now that's through end of Feb NPD sales.

March and April HD DVD player sales are by all indications signifcantly higher, hence some movement in HD DVD disc sales.

If I had to guess, I'd say 105,000 NPD reported HD DVD sales end of Feb and 25,000 more in March and probably 50,000 plus in April.

By the end of April that's an installed base of 180,000 standalones plus the Xbox 360 HD DVD drives.

Need to subtract out 10,000 effective units because some people bought both generation of players though. There are some 2 player HD DVD households out there.

To understand the low PS3 sales numbers, you simply have to look at why anyone would buy a PS3. It has the primary target of a gamer and a secondary target of a HT enthusiast. Sony spins the PS3 as a hybrid entertainment device, but that is forward thinking that may or may not happen. So, let's take the gamer. You are going to sell the PS3 initially to hardcore gamers and Sony fans without having any software at all. Those numbers generally spike at launch and then drop. The casual gamer, however, sees the $599 price tag and takes a hard look at the availible games. Without having games, he doesn't buy, period. The price is a barrier, but not having games is a brick wall. When the competition has a cheaper console that is highly capable, as is the case with the X360, then this casual gamer is going to pass on the PS3 and buy a X360. This hurts Sony because a fence-sitter who buys a X360 is not going to buy an additional PS3. This casual gamer is important for Sony to attract. How does Sony do that with a $599 console price? Well, crank out great games and lots of them. If this happens, then a demand is created for the PS3 and gamers will begin to place a higher utility for the $599 price. HUGE, BIG, MASSIVE titles will see spikes in PS3 sales, so the more big games, the more PS3 sales.

Up to this point, Sony has not even broke into this gamer market because of the lack of games. However, the HT enthusiast sees the PS3 as a very capable Blu-ray player that at launch of the format(and still continues for the most part) was not only the cheapest, but also the best value and one of, if not the best players out. So, the PS3 sold a big number of units to people who would never have bought a gaming console if there had been good, cheap BD players on the market. I believe this was vital for Sony's PS3 sales numbers early on because it allowed Sony to sell PS3's(to other than the hardcore fans) despite not having many games at all. As cheaper and full featured BD players come out, fewer and fewer PS3's will be sold as BD players. Sony had better get out some great games so they can continue to sell the PS3. At this point in 2007, if great BD titles come out, then people are still going to be tempted to buy the PS3 to get into Blu to be able to watch the high def BD. Again, releasing GREAT movies is huge and will generate sales here. Its very much software driven.

So, I don't see the current low PS3 sales as a continuing trend. Its all dependant on software. This is why we see Amazon spikes in sales ranks. When there are weeks with good titles coming out, then you see that format's numbers jump. Its very simple. The PS3 hardware will begin to sell to its primary target gamer audience when they get a number of good games out. This will far surpass any Chinese HD DVD sales numbers. I would say that Sony will sell 2M PS3's in Nov-Dec of 2007 alone with the big holiday season push. Then, in 2008, the PS3 will continue to sell pretty well at maybe 200,000-600,000 units per month with more potential if great games continue to develop.


You are glossing over history if you really believe this. The PS2 was released before Christmas 2000. It sold roughly the same the first three months as the PS3 has (the PS3 actually sold a little less). However, in March 2001 (also a 5 week reporting period), the PS2 sold 546k units, compared to the PS3's 130k this year. Starting March, the PS2 was selling 80-100k consoles PER WEEK. This seems to be what the PS3 is doing per month.

In November-December 2001, the PS2 sold around 2.9 million consoles. This is about 5.3X their March volume. In the case of the PS3, that would mean about 690k consoles for November-December 2007.

Or, to compare it to the X360. The first three months sales were almost identical. However, in March 2006, the X360 sold 192k consoles compared to the PS3's 130k. The X360 also outsold it in Februray 2006 vs 2007. So the PS3 sold 67.7% in it's first March of the X360's first March. The X360's second Nov-Dec saw 1.6 million consoles sold, which means at 67.7%, the PS3 would sell around 1.1 million consoles this Holiday.

So I would say your guess of 2 million this holiday season is way off the mark. My US estimate for the end of 2007 is 3.35 million total PS3's sold since launch.

Any word on the Nielsen numbers :confused: ? They have usually been released on Friday morning.

That is certainly a good plan. Engadget now has a correction (http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/) saying that it is Blu-ray players that were ordered. When it is posted in English I will worry about it.

/carmi


Actually the source of Engadgets article just released another correction saying it is indeed HD-DVD.

Or they're doing both. 1 million each?

PS2 sales are still 2nd place and combined PS2 and PS3 still put Sony at the top of heap for gaming, so they're doubtfully too concerned until the PS2 sales fall off even more. By which point more and better PS3 games will be out.

Regarding BD and the point of this thread, BDA is most likely aiming at maintaining their current 2:1-4:1 sales and expanding it with the their staggered release of big hits (Pirates, Spidey), sales, and cheaper standalone players taking a handoff from the superior BDA CE support take the previously conceded low end market from the PS3, which will see less price elasticity than the standalones. As Robert from VE noted, his margins were much much higher for his BD standalones than from the Tosh HDDVD players. But Toshiba is basically up aainst the wall... increase margins, increase price, and their only talking point against BD is lost.

Actually the source of Engadgets article just released another correction saying it is indeed HD-DVD.

http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-13678-2+millions+of+Blu-Ray+players+for+Walmart.html

Doesn't look like it to me. I think the TDK connection is the key to all this. When have TDK ever promoted HD DVD?

But Toshiba is basically up aainst the wall... increase margins, increase price, and their only talking point against BD is lost.

And sales would suffer. There strategy seems to be get as many players out their and let the chips fall, the "hit and hope" strategy.

Maybe it's a dual format player.

Edit: As TDK is mentioned in the article is anyone aware of any HD DVD developments that TDK are involved in? They don't mention the format anywhere on their website. Just Blu-ray:

http://www.tdk.com/consumer/bluray/index.html

Looks like Walmart have ordered BD devices after all. :)

I wish we had a :barf: smiley.

No TDK has nothing to do with HD-DVD at all. THEY ONLY HELPED DEVELOPE THE 51GB TRIPLE LAYER HD-DVD DISC FOR TOSHIBA. Memory Tech developed the 45 GB triple layer, and TDK is the one who developed 17 GB single/ 34 GB double/ and 51 GB tiple layer discs.

Nope, nothing to do with HD-DVD at all. Indeed....

http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-13678-2+millions+of+Blu-Ray+players+for+Walmart.html

Doesn't look like it to me. I think the TDK connection is the key to all this. When have TDK ever promoted HD DVD?

Really, what part don't you get?

According to the Chinese medias, Taiwan based company Fuh Yuan in cooperation with TDK, should produce 2 millions HD DVD players for Walmart, representing a deal of around 100 million dollars.

Really, what part don't you get?

He gets the part you're leaving off:

--- Sorry for the previous News but we were lost in the transaltion , We had to read Blu-Ray HD DVD... an in Chinese it is 藍光 = blue ray --- :o

Guys the title of the article is :


2 millions of HD DVD (but which one?) players for Walmart


The key is "which one?"


I'm gonna really have a laugh it turns out to be blu-ray

Back to topic ;)

New data in as of 4/15

Week 61/39
YTD 69/31
SI 57/43

I'm gonna really have a laugh it turns out to be blu-ray

I can think of a couple really nice signatures. :D

Top 5 BD
1. Casino Royale 100.00
2. Happy Feet 64.39
3. The Pursuit of Happyness 41.55
4. Eragon 33.21
5. Payback 33.10

Top 5 HD DVD
1. The Good Shepherd 100.00
2. Batman Begins 78.27
3. Happy Feet 67.13
4. Children of Men 65.13
5. Payback 57.33

Q1 Sellers based on VideoScan and studio research
In thousands

1. Casino Royale BD 59.68
2. The Departed BD 53.64
3. The Departed HD 31.59
4. The Prestige BD 28.50
5. Crank BD 20.88
6. Saw 3 BD 18.80
7. Superman Returns BD 17.92
8. Batman Begins HD 16.98
9. Black Hawk Down BD 16.81
10. The Fifth Element BD 16.06

Top sellers since inception
In thousands

1. Casino Royale BD 59.68
2. The Departed BD 53.64
3. Batman Begins HD 44.59
4. Superman Returns BD 40.14
5. Superman Returns HD 36.21
6. The Departed HD 31.59
7. The Fifth Element BD 29.00
8. X-Men 3 BD 28.68
9. The Prestige BD 28.50
10. Underworld Evolution 28.20

Total discs sold Q1
BD: 832,530
HD: 359,300

Total discs SI as of end of Q1
BD: 1.2 million
HD: 937,500

Back to topic ;)

New data in as of 4/15

Week 61/39
YTD 69/31
SI 57/43

Thanks. Looks like we are significantly off. So I can't get the weekly figure using the YTD and SI figures. Could be because we don't have the SI & YTD figures at higher accuracy (two decimal places would help).

So, no numbers until I've the time to figure all this out.

Total discs sold Q1
BD: 832,530
HD: 359,300

Total discs SI as of end of Q1
BD: 1.2 million
HD: 937,500

Wow - real numbers. When exactly does Q1 end ?

Source for your data Grubert? Not doubting it, just wondering.

He gets the part you're leaving off:

:o

Yes, the prvious news they were refering to was calling it a Blu-ray player. They are saying the article has been updated and then they are explaining why. The mistakenly called it a Blu-ray player.

In the HD-DVD player forum, there have been three native CHinese speakers who have all confirmed the article is referring to HD-DVD. Case closed...

^^

This is where it comes from :
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom042207/index.php?startpage=2

If I continue on from the prev week calcs using only YTD and Weekly ratios, this is what I get for weekly sales :

Assumption :
YTD 03.31 BD 665888
YTD 03.31 HD 287397

Solving the above.
04.07 BD 38404
04.07 HD 23141
04.15 BD 30952
04.15 HD 19789

But the YTD numbers on Mar31 are probably off.
---
If I use HMM's numbers as, I get :

Assumption (HMM's YTD):
YTD 03.31 BD 832530
YTD 03.31 HD 359300
04.07 BD 48136
04.07 HD 29005
04.15 BD 38703
04.15 HD 24744

Total discs sold Q1
BD: 832,530
HD: 359,300

Total discs SI as of end of Q1
BD: 1.2 million
HD: 937,500

These are obviously not Videoscan numbers. I think these are projected HMM numbers. From Sony report we get as of Mar 18th 834K for BD. It couldn't have gone to 1.2M (i.e. about 400K) in just two more weeks.

If I had to guess, I'd say 105,000 NPD reported HD DVD sales end of Feb and 25,000 more in March and probably 50,000 plus in April.What happened with your contact that claimed 200k? Do you think they weren't telling the truth (whether because they were misinformed or for some other reason).

Seriously, if they had sold close to 150k at the time that they came out with a press release that said they had surpassed 100k, then the person who made that decision should really be looked at to see how well they are doing their job. I don't think they've shown a propensity to undershoot with their claims of how many they planned to sell, attach rates, etc. and I think there is some wishful thinking here.

How many standalone players do you now think they had sold by the end of 2006 in NA? You were arguing against what the head of Toshiba of America said (60k) and claiming it was a misinterpretation or something for a while and that looked like wishful thinking to me too.

--Darin

Total discs sold Q1
BD: 832,530
HD: 359,300


Interesting. Has anyone assembled the previous sales by Quarter (for 2006)?

Interesting. Has anyone assembled the previous sales by Quarter (for 2006)?
I was editing this in flight and the posts flew by me, here it is again, calculated numbers using HMM for YTD 2007.03.31

Assumption (HMM's YTD):
YTD 03.31 BD 832530
YTD 03.31 HD 359300

calculated using YTD & Weekly:
04.08 BD 48137
04.08 HD 29006
04.15 BD 38704
04.15 HD 24745

Btw, if I also use the SI numbers in HMM of
SI 03.31 BD 1,200,000
SI 03.31 HD 937,500

we get :
SI 04.15 BD 1,286,841
SI 04.15 HD 991,251

this gives 56.4877% to BD.
---

Since 1,200,000 is too exact a number, if I make that 1,201,000, voila, I get 56.5% which rounds to 57:43 that HMM gave for nielsen videoscan SI.

Since the weekly, YTD, SI all seem to match. I am inclined to believe that the above numbers probably are very very close as far as nielsen videoscan first alert is concerned using the 4.08 and 4.15 ratios.

---

Ok, there's that missing April 1 day...

IIRC Darin argued that it wouldnt have any effect because the chinese are too poor to buy HD DVD players ...I think your memory is faulty here and would like to see you or somebody show me where you think I claimed that.

I did bring up the issue that having a format in China that is almost exactly the same as HD DVD might keep the HD DVD group from changing the HD DVD specs for TL51s that Toshiba has mentioned and to require the 1.5x spin rate that Amir mentioned (in order to maintain high commonality). Eurotrance jumped all over me for even bringing the issue up, despite it being completely relevant to the thread topic.

--Darin

These are obviously not Videoscan numbers. I think these are projected HMM numbers. From Sony report we get as of Mar 18th 834K for BD. It couldn't have gone to 1.2M (i.e. about 400K) in just two more weeks.

They came from Nielsen, but Home Media tweaked them with info from the studios.

WRT the end date for Q1, usually it's March 31 :D but I guess this is up to April 1st.

Back to topic ;)

New data in as of 4/15

Week 61/39
YTD 69/31
SI 57/43

OUCH! HD-DVD spanked again. So much for the idea that HD-DVD is surging or catching up. :rolleyes:

This was during the worst BD release week in a while too.

Back to topic ;)

New data in as of 4/15

Week 61/39
YTD 69/31
SI 57/43

Does that mean it includes the April 15th sales surge, or will that be in next weeks numbers?

Does that mean it includes the April 15th sales surge, or will that be in next weeks numbers?

Good question. I'm not sure Sunday sales at amazon would make the First Alert deadline.

OUCH! HD-DVD spanked again. So much for the idea that HD-DVD is surging or catching up. :rolleyes:

You don't see any catching up?

When the week ratio is better for HD DVD than the year to date ratio (61/39 vs. 69/31) you don't think this should be considered catching up?

You don't see any catching up?

When the week ratio is better for HD DVD than the year to date ratio (61/39 vs. 69/31) you don't think this should be considered catching up?
I think it is a matter of semantics. If you look at the total number of DVDs sold, BD widened the gap even farther which they continue to do as long as they keep better than a 50-50 ratio.

No one's pointed it out so I will, worst week for Blu-ray since Jan 1st but still strong numbers

Good question. I'm not sure Sunday sales at amazon would make the First Alert deadline.Do you know if Sunday is included in the previous week, or the next week?

--Darin

No one's pointed it out so I will, worst week for Blu-ray since Jan 1st but still strong numbers

Is that raw numbers or just the ratio ?

Good question. I'm not sure Sunday sales at amazon would make the First Alert deadline.

Also shouldn't the sale be counted when the goods ship ?

Just a guess.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/nielsenvolchartapr15.jpg

That is based on a weekly split of Blu-ray:61.21% & HD DVD: 38.79% (rounded down that equates to the published 61:39 weekly split).

They came from Nielsen, but Home Media tweaked them with info from the studios.

Right. What I meant was these are not direct Videoscan numbers and so - since we are basically using Sony provided Videoscan numbers - they don't match.

WRT the end date for Q1, usually it's March 31 :D but I guess this is up to April 1st.

NPD counted till last week as Q1. Just wanted to know what Videoscan means by Q1.

Perhaps we should add DVD sales to this graph as well. What has got me really curious now is that the shape of the graph is same for both formats - one goes up so does the other, one goes down so does the other. So, is this up and down movement also tracking what is happening with DVD? How is it that we don't have any week this year where say BD sales went up from the previous week and HD DVD declined and vise versa? Or perhaps it IS there but I can't see it in the graph.

Seems like game theory :)

Back to topic ;)

New data in as of 4/15

Week 61/39
YTD 69/31
SI 57/43

So Blu-ray still leads for the week in the first alert data.

Its the lowest showing for Blu-ray all year.

Its the best showing for HD DVD all year.

Weekly ratio closing to 1.56:1.

OUCH! HD-DVD spanked again. So much for the idea that HD-DVD is surging or catching up. :rolleyes:

This was during the worst BD release week in a while too. huh?

Thats HD DVD best performance all year.

ie. Its catching up, not falling further behind.

Still behind Blu-ray but if its getting closer........

Perhaps we should add DVD sales to this graph as well. What has got me really curious now is that the shape of the graph is same for both formats - one goes up so does the other, one goes down so does the other. So, is this up and down movement also tracking what is happening with DVD? How is it that we don't have any week this year where say BD sales went up from the previous week and HD DVD declined and vise versa? Or perhaps it IS there but I can't see it in the graph.

Seems like game theory :)

If we did that the Blu-ray and HD DVD levels would be so small in comparison that the scale of graph would make attempting to glean anything meaningless. Unless they scaled the DVD to be in thousands or even ten thousands =)

If we did that the Blu-ray and HD DVD levels would be so small in comparison that the scale of graph would make attempting to glean anything meaningless. Unless they scaled the DVD to be in thousands or even ten thousands =)

I think we should scale DVD to 1000. So we see the % contribution of each format to DVD as well as how they are tracking relative to DVD growth. At this point growth rates v. DVD would be an interesting metric to gauge adoption.

Plus there is the interesting synchronized trend for both formats that has me intrigued as well. Why is it?

I think we should scale DVD to 1000. So we see the % contribution of each format to DVD as well as how they are tracking relative to DVD growth. At this point growth rates v. DVD would be an interesting metric to gauge adoption.

Plus there is the interesting synchronized trend for both formats that has me intrigued as well. Why is it?

In a word: Warner. We already know they supply a large percentage of both formats total sales. I would expect we are seeing the influence of neutral studios.

Just a guess.

http://75.126.103.40/images/guy06/nielsenvolchartapr15.jpg

That is based on a weekly split of Blu-ray:61.21% & HD DVD: 38.79% (rounded down that equates to the published 61:39 weekly split).

Actually, I have the sales all declining again week over week if we start with HMM's YTD and weekly ratio.

Assumption (HMM's YTD):
YTD 03.31 BD 832530
YTD 03.31 HD 359300

Ignoring the missing April 1st number.......

And calculated using YTD & Weekly ratios:
04.08 BD 48137
04.08 HD 29006
04.15 BD 38704
04.15 HD 24745

Plus there is the interesting synchronized trend for both formats that has me intrigued as well. Why is it?
Yes, if those are reporting artifacts, they may show up in DVD as well

In a word: Warner. We already know they supply a large percentage of both formats total sales. I would expect we are seeing the influence of neutral studios.
Good point... so those dips are possibly weak release weeks for nuetral studios?

huh?

Thats HD DVD best performance all year.

ie. Its catching up, not falling further behind.

Still behind Blu-ray but if its getting closer........
Please. Let's leave the spin to the promotion groups, OK?

There is no way you can honestly look at these numbers and based on them suggest that HD DVD is getting closer to BD. You can say the pace at which BD is pulling ahead has slowed recently but that's about it.

People come into this forum looking for real information so let's help them get it.

Please. Let's leave the spin to the promotion groups, OK?

There is no way you can honestly look at these numbers and based on them suggest that HD DVD is getting closer to BD. You can say the pace at which BD is pulling ahead has slowed recently but that's about it.

People come into this forum looking for real information so let's help them get it.

Nicely put.

With next week's day an date releases of Night at the Museum, Deja Vu, and The Queen, don't expect HD DVD to make any headway in the numbers. :D

huh?

Thats HD DVD best performance all year.

ie. Its catching up, not falling further behind.

Still behind Blu-ray but if its getting closer........

I hope that everybody is clear about one thing.

In order for HD DVD to be "catching up" it would have to lead Blu-ray for at least 1 week. To be "getting closer" HD DVD would have to sell more than Blu-ray on a weekly basis, not less than! :rolleyes:

I have not seen this event since 2006, so Blu-ray is actually extending it's lead. The rate at which this is happening may vary but HD DVD is falling further behind for each week that Blu-ray leads.

My view is that HD DVD will never be catching up to Blu-ray because it will never lead in weekly sales.

With next week's day an date releases of Night at the Museum, Deja Vu, and The Queen, don't expect HD DVD to make any headway in the numbers. :D

I'm eager to see how the previous massive preordering of Planet Earth HD DVD on april 15th affects the amazon rankings. Will there be the usual post-release spike, or has that already been hit?

I hope that everybody is clear about one thing.

In order for HD DVD to be "catching up" it would have to lead Blu-ray for at least 1 week. To be "getting closer" HD DVD would have to sell more than Blu-ray on a weekly basis, not less than! :rolleyes:

I have not seen this event since 2006, so Blu-ray is actually extending it's lead. The rate at which this is happening may vary but HD DVD is falling further behind for each week that Blu-ray leads.

My view is that HD DVD will never be catching up to Blu-ray because it will never lead in weekly sales.

My thoughts exactly. The ratio can continue getting closer, but every sale over 1:1 is a sale that HD DVD would have to pick up in a later month on top of Blu-ray just to catch up. The ratio may be decreasing, but the hole is still getting deeper.

I'm eager to see how the previous massive preordering of Planet Earth HD DVD on april 15th affects the amazon rankings. Will there be the usual post-release spike, or has that already been hit?

Have you forgotten already? Planet Earth is not exclusive to HD DVD. Any advantage HD DVD may have in the Amazon's preorders of Planet Earth HD DVD will be erased by the Blu-ray version on Amazon and the probable stronger sales at B&M stores. I highly doubt HD DVD could even outsells Blu-ray with Planet Earth.

So Blu-ray still leads for the week in the first alert data.

Its the lowest showing for Blu-ray all year.

Its the best showing for HD DVD all year.

Weekly ratio closing to 1.56:1.

So was last week !

http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/360/bdhdlq0.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Note : 25th Mar and 1st Apr are estimates.

My thoughts exactly. The ratio can continue getting closer, but every sale over 1:1 is a sale that HD DVD would have to pick up in a later month on top of Blu-ray just to catch up. The ratio may be decreasing, but the hole is still getting deeper.

Why does this "hole" matter for software sales? What should matter is what the numbers show as far as some kind of trend, which gives the studios an indicator of the future of each format.

Actually, The BDA was probably expecting the the release of Casino Royale on the backs of a buy one get one offer from B&M sales, and the 50% off sales and the BD coupon book and the increasing gap in BD v. HD DVD hardware AND a big promotion and PR campaign would effectively end the format war by causing a massive uptick in BD sales while seeing a decline in HD DVD sales.

Well....the fact is that HD DVD has shown itself to be a resiliant format with the ability to hit back. Let's not forget that BD is surviving off of subsidized products is a much bigger way and it cannot carry on for over.

So, as you claim, IF you eliminate the PR spin, you'll see that HD DVD has made an impressive come back and it looks like those who predicted that HD DVD would throw in the towel are going to be wrong!

Yes. I say eliminate spin and examine the evidence and do some simple analysis of your own ;)

Yes. I say eliminate spin and examine the evidence and do some simple analysis of your own ;)

I'd have to say I'm getting tired of all the format war stuff here. Very little analysis and a lot of bickering. Lets see this page. One person refuted what Kosty said. No problems there. Three other said the same thing or just posted their support. Where is the analysis there ?

Why does this "hole" matter for software sales? What should matter is what the numbers show as far as some kind of trend, which gives the studios an indicator of the future of each format.

I'm talking about the "Since Inception" hole in which the number of sold Blu-ray discs continually grows. I agree that trends are what matter most, and therefore everything is trending in Blu-rays favor at this point. Two weeks worth of drop does not change four months worth of trend. Try plotting a best-fit line and you'll see what I mean.

The PS3 market is mostly saturated now with the major launches done.

Dude, seriously

There is no way you can honestly look at these numbers and based on them suggest that HD DVD is getting closer to BD. You can say the pace at which BD is pulling ahead has slowed recently but that's about it.


It has got to start somewhere !

Seriously, I don't expect weekly HD DVD figures to overtake BD consistently till '08.

nat, in my books analysis is trying to understand what the data means and is telling us. NOT just rehashing the numbers. That has it's place, but it isn't analysis. It is simply collection and presentation of data. Analysis is trying to understand what it means and shows....

So I am not sure what you were referring to by format war discussions. But we ARE discussing adoption of two competing HD formats - No? and using data from Neilson as evidence. AFAIK :)

nat, in my books analysis is trying to understand what the data means and is telling us. NOT just rehashing the numbers. That has it's place, but it isn't analysis. It is simply collection and presentation of data. Analysis is trying to understand what it means and shows....

Exactly. I was expanding your statement ...

ie. Its catching up, not falling further behind."HD-DVD is right in that meaty part of the curve, not showing off, not falling behind." - George Costanza

:D

With next week's day an date releases of Night at the Museum, Deja Vu, and The Queen, don't expect HD DVD to make any headway in the numbers. :D
see:
Please. Let's leave the spin to the promotion groups, OK?
There is no way you can honestly look at these numbers and based on them suggest that HD DVD is getting closer to BD. You can say the pace at which BD is pulling ahead has slowed recently but that's about it.
People come into this forum looking for real information so let's help them get it.
Thanks!
I hope that everybody is clear about one thing.

In order for HD DVD to be "catching up" it would have to lead Blu-ray for at least 1 week. To be "getting closer" HD DVD would have to sell more than Blu-ray on a weekly basis, not less than!

I have not seen this event since 2006, so Blu-ray is actually extending it's lead. The rate at which this is happening may vary but HD DVD is falling further behind for each week that Blu-ray leads.

My view is that HD DVD will never be catching up to Blu-ray because it will never lead in weekly sales.
I hope that everybody is clear about one thing.

"Catching up"; is not "leading". Caught up is when your tied in a race. "Catching up" is when your coming from behind, yet have not caught up to the leader.

"Getting closer"; is not leading. "Getting closer" is indeed "getting closer", however on has yet to catch or surpass the leader.

"In your opinion" is not what this thread is about, nor is it about my opinion of withier or not HD DVD will be in the lead in the future.

"Never" is a long time!!! :p

OP,

Great thread! :)
Too badd this has turned into a guessing game. :mad:

"Catching up"; is not "leading". Caught up is when your tied in a race. "Catching up" is when your coming from behind, yet have not caught up to the leader.

"Getting closer"; is not leading. "Getting closer" is indeed "getting closer", however on has yet to catch or surpass the leader.


Here is an easy example for you.

We are running a 50 km marathon and we start at the same time. In the first hour I run 2 km and you run 1 km. We are now 1 km apart, right? In the next hour I run 2 km and you run 1 km. Now we are 2 km apart. In the third hour I run 1.5 km and you run 1 km. We are now 2.5 km apart. You didn't catch up, and you didn't get any closer. I just stopped pulling away from you as quickly as before. Now if in the fourth hour I run 1 km and you run 1.5 km, we are now 2 km apart and you can say you are catching up and getting closer.

As you can see HD DVD is not "catching up" and it isn't "getting closer".

A true statement would be "Blu-ray isn't pulling away as quickly as before."

see:

Thanks!

I hope that everybody is clear about one thing.

"Catching up"; is not "leading". Caught up is when your tied in a race. "Catching up" is when your coming from behind, yet have not caught up to the leader.
FACT: HD DVD is not catching up. That would suggest the gap between the two formats was decreasing as opposed to increasing.

"Getting closer"; is not leading. "Getting closer" is indeed "getting closer", however on has yet to catch or surpass the leader
FACT: HD DVD is not getting closer (only further away).

I'm not sure what is confusing people about these rather basic concepts.

I've not seen anything this silly since ... well people arguing by what % 50GB is higher than 30GB.

It all depends on what your reference is. HD DVD is catching up with BD in terms of weekly sales ratio - but not in terms of YTD or SI totals. Lets move on.

The logical flaw in your argument is that you are assuming that you are assuming that BD wins by having 51% of the market.

In fact the short term strategy of HD DVD has always been co-existance since it has long term cost advantages that are not factors now (like using DVD lines to replicate disks and cheaper laser assembly and drives).

So, all that HD DVD needs to do in the short term is to achieve viability. Sony is spending a lot on software subsidy, hardware subsidy and of course PR and marketing....so, closing the gap in terms of achieving a stable 60:40 share or even 70:30 share is and important achievement in the short term since Sony probably will find it hard to continue this rate of spending.

I believe others including hardware vendors like TDK and Samsung and LG are seeing the writing on the wall. Resistance is futile ;)

Seriously, I don't expect weekly HD DVD figures to overtake BD consistently till '08.

How far behind per week do you think HD DVD will be behind on 12/31/07, when would you see the YTD for 08 passing, and how long before they will retake the lead SI?

Just curious. I obviously don't think they will ever catch up on weekly, YTD, or SI ever again... though I do believe HD DVD could accumulate enough sales to stay viable for 5-10 years, lingering on like LD while BD slowly displaces DVD. Nor do I believe downloads take over for the next decade at the absolute earliest maybe as long as twice that.

How far behind per week do you think HD DVD will be behind on 12/31/07, when would you see the YTD for 08 passing, and how long before they will retake the lead SI?

How does it matter ? Who cares about SI figures anyway - apart from stat junkies ?

Does Wii have to beat PS2 SI figures to be considered successful ? No.

Let us think about it. What studios care about is how many they can sell per title. SI figures is not a useful indicator there. That is why I've been pointing out that as for as Disney and Fox are concerned BD is no better than HD DVD - since their per title sales is no better than Universal's.

Does that mean it includes the April 15th sales surge, or will that be in next weeks numbers?

It will be interesting to see if the 'Amazon surge' shows up at all.

If Neo's numbers are even close to correct, even a few hundred disc sales at Amazon wouldn't really show up much when overall sales are in the 25k units per week range...???

I've not seen anything this silly since ... well people arguing by what % 50GB is higher than 30GB.




Approximately 67% :p

Let us think about it. What studios care about is how many they can sell per title. SI figures is not a useful indicator there.

I guess in that case a relevant statistic to consider would be:


Q1 Sellers based on VideoScan and studio research
In thousands

2. The Departed BD 53.64
3. The Departed HD 31.59


Same title, HD DVD sales 60% of BD sales.

It will be interesting to see how Happy Feet stacks up...

Same title, HD DVD sales 60% of BD sales.


Individual titles will sell better in one or the other. I can list the titles that sold better in HD DVD too. The question is on avg how are they selling.

Anyway, we will see how things go in '08 - this is what I was referring to.

Individual titles will sell better in one or the other. I can list the titles that sold better in HD DVD too. The question is on avg how are they selling.

Anyway, we will see how things go in '08 - this is what I was referring to.

Please do. I'd like to see which ones have.

My IQ dropped 30 points from reading this thread.

FACT: HD DVD is not catching up. That would suggest the gap between the two formats was decreasing as opposed to increasing.


FACT: HD DVD is not getting closer (only further away).

I'm not sure what is confusing people about these rather basic concepts.
This all reminds me of when I was in 2nd semester Physics(I've got a Chemistry degree, but took a lot of Physics). The concept of Velocity is easily grasped by most. The concept of Acceleration is easily understood.(Deceleration is the opposite). Time is, of course, part of the equation. When people would look at differences over time holding one variable constant and varying the other, like constant velocity or constant acceleration and then put that in graph form, they would get very lost. These were very smart people who would lose all logic and forget very basic fundamentals. Take you in your car, if acceleration is equal to zero, then you are going a constant velocity. You could be stopped at a stop sign(then your velocity would also equal Zero) or you could be driving 65mph down the highway.(your velocity would equal 65 mph). If someone behind you by some distance is traveling at a greater velocity, they are catching you(it doesn't matter what the acceleration is because the only way they can catch you is if their velocity is greater than yours for some period of time.) If you always maintain a greater velocity, then the distance by which you lead is always increasing. If you accelerate and decelerate(but always keep a velocity greater than the car behind you), then the RATE at which you increase you lead changes. If the distance gets extremely large, then you could actually stop your car at a rest stop for some period of time, then get back on the highway and still have a lead. People get very confused with rates of change vs. positive or negative values.

Its very easy. If you have acceleration of Blu-ray sales ratio, then velocity is INCREASING.(Blu-ray is pulling away from HD DVD) If you have deceleration(negative acceleration) of Blu-ray sales ratio, then velocity is decreasing.(HD DVD is catching up). In the above posts, acceleration has always been a number greater than 1. This means Blu-ray has always been increasing its velocity and pulling away. When the number is closer to, but greater than 1, its pulling away at a smaller rate. When the number begins to rise much above 2, then its pulling away at a greater rate.

In order to be catching up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in velocity, which in our case means it will have to sell MORE discs than Blu-ray in a given week to even begin to "catch up". In order to actually catch up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in sales for a length of time. The amount of time depends on the difference in the number of discs and the magnitude of the sales difference.

theflux

Please do. I'd like to see which ones have

this is what the search function is for. This thread had an extensive discussion of the report Sony issued, which listed sales of titles. You can find that information in there.

Darin,

You were partially right. You were not the one that said that China was too poor to support HD DVD players, it was Anthony P who said that.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=816841&page=6&pp=30&highlight=chinese+only+hd+dvd+players

Nonetheless, the implications of the news I posted are starting to raise their heads.

Please do. I'd like to see which ones have.

If you search, there is a spreadsheet with all the numbers posted ... if you can't get to it, I'll post the list when I can.

In order to be catching up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in velocity, which in our case means it will have to sell MORE discs than Blu-ray in a given week to even begin to "catch up". In order to actually catch up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in sales for a length of time. The amount of time depends on the difference in the number of discs and the magnitude of the sales difference.

Well, it depends on what you think is driving sales. (Before I continue: if you were to suggest that I'm a HD DVD fanboy, pls do check my posting history :) ) Note that, in stationary state, the rate at which discs sells is determined by the number of players (ie the level). So if we see HD DVD sales accelerating relative to BD, this would indicate (again in stationary state) that the rate at which HD DVD players sell is higher than the rate at which BD players sell (since you're integrating). In that case, the level of HD players is indeed catching up (approaching) with the level of BD players. So the statement that 'HD may be catching up' is not that crazy: it depends on what you think is the key driver in this process.

Here is the first estimate. I've used YTD and Weekly ratios, instead of YTD and SI ratios like we used to. Some more corrections need to be done to get SI numbers right.

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/4939/nielsenestsf1.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Edit : As you can see this is the worst week for BD in terms of actual sales. Actually past two weeks have been the worst two weeks. Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.

Here were the releases for the period.

04/10 Dog Day Afternoon W DL V DD+ EFS 28.95
Dog Day Afternoon W V DD EFS 28.95
Dragon's Lair O
Payback P 29.99
Payback P 29.99
Scanner Darkly, A W DL V DD+ EFS 28.95
Scanner Darkly, A W V DD EFS 28.95

Edit : As you can see this is the worst week for BD in terms of actual sales. Actually past two weeks have been the worst two weeks. Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.




Week ending April 8, 2007
Week 62.4/37.6

New data in as of 4/15
Week 61/39


Since the ratios are barely different, I guess this must be true of HD DVD also?

Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.

Since the ratios are barely different, I guess this must be true of HD DVD also?

Can't you see the chart ? :rolleyes:

phloyd,

Since the ratios are barely different, I guess this must be true of HD DVD also?

Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.

True, but it is also not a sign that BD is pulling away from HD either.

phloyd,
True, but it is also not a sign that BD is pulling away from HD either.

This thread is becoming too cluttered with blurbs, but I'll point out quickly that:

SINCE BLU-RAY IS OUTSELLING HD-DVD EVERY WEEK BY AN AVERAGE OF 2:1, THEN BLU-RAY IS PULLING AWAY FROM HD-DVD.

The WIDENING SI and YTD absolute sales numbers numbers will easily show this fact.

Btw, Dragon's Lair looks like it is counted as a game, not a movie title (e.g. see amazon.com)

Wrong Thread

Btw, Dragon's Lair looks like it is counted as a game, not a movie title (e.g. see amazon.com)

Well, isn't that correct? It *is* a game.

This thread is becoming too cluttered with blurbs ...

So you have nothing to say about this weeks numbers ? Just about general averages ? Then why post ?

So you have nothing to say about this weeks numbers ? Just about general averages ? Then why post ?

Blu-ray is still outselling HD-DVD and widening its sales lead no matter what HD-DVD does (including some really juvenile "manipulation" of amazon.com rankings). Does that about cover it?

Can't you see the chart ? :rolleyes:

Yeah I see HD DVD in a downward trend for the last two weeks, just like BD...

What do you see?


True, but it is also not a sign that BD is pulling away from HD either.


Every week that HD DVD sells less than BD, BD is pulling away from HD DVD.

Widening the gap. This week is no exception.

Does your math work differently?

phloyd,

it all depends on what you mean by widening the gap - the ratio is not increasing, hence in one sense the gap is not widening, as much as asj would like to assert. There is a constant difference between the two. However, in terms of YTD numbers, the gap widens.

asj,

Blu-ray is still outselling HD-DVD and widening its sales lead no matter what HD-DVD does

you in particular though have a small problem. You spent a couple of weeks repeatedly posting that BD was outselling HD 4:1, and touting that as a sign of BDs strength. However, it is now back down to where it pretty much has been for a while 1.5-2:1. so, in some respects, in the context of your earlier posts, BD has lost some of its strength so to speak.

it all depends on what you mean by widening the gap - the ratio is not increasing, hence in one sense the gap is not widening, as much as asj would like to assert. There is a constant difference between the two. However, in terms of YTD numbers, the gap widens.


Indeed. In absolute numbers (SI, YTD, etc) the gap widens ... it is just not widening at an increasing rate. In fact, in order for HD DVD to make ground it needs to sell more than BD in the given week... Even if HD DVD picked up to 45/55, the gap would be widening in favour of BD, just at a decreasing rate...

However the ratio has not really changed over the last few weeks which means that any trend for BD has been followed by HD DVD with the same percentage.

This is why I found it surprising that nataraj sees that as a bad thing for BD but does not acknowledge that HD DVD has followed the roughly the same percentage drops in sales.

It is not good news for either format - I would say equally bad news for both.

The logical flaw in your argument is that you are assuming that you are assuming that BD wins by having 51% of the market.

In fact the short term strategy of HD DVD has always been co-existance since it has long term cost advantages that are not factors now (like using DVD lines to replicate disks and cheaper laser assembly and drives).

So, all that HD DVD needs to do in the short term is to achieve viability. Sony is spending a lot on software subsidy, hardware subsidy and of course PR and marketing....so, closing the gap in terms of achieving a stable 60:40 share or even 70:30 share is and important achievement in the short term since Sony probably will find it hard to continue this rate of spending.

I believe others including hardware vendors like TDK and Samsung and LG are seeing the writing on the wall. Resistance is futile ;) The SI number is irrelevant. Current weekly sales trending is far more important. Its the trends,not the history.

Blu-ray's PR strategy has been based on inevitability and a sense of increasing momentum and a steadily increasing gap in sales.

Trends are what is important, not historical sales figures.

The simple fact is that Blu-ray is currently leading in the sales ratios, but the volumes are pitifully small. The Blu-ray PR campaign has heavily been based on increasing separation and overwhelming sales advantages.

The fact that HD DVD has closed that sales gap trend is counter to the BDA PR campaign.

Current sales of hardware implies that HD DVD is a viable format. Blu-ray's ecosystem work best with Blu-ray the sole survivor. The PS3 has not proved to be the death blow to HD DVD.

Although its obvious Blu-ray still leads in the low volume of current HD disc sales, it is no longer apparent that player sales will be in Blu-ray's favor. The weight of increasing lower priced HD DVD players seems to an ever increasing factor that will eventually lead to dramatically larger HD DVD sales. The question is when.

CE companies may now decide that HD DVD is the horse that may break into mass market sales territory.

The simple fact that Blu-ray is not pulling away in weekly sales and HD DVD is competitive on a weekly basis is counter to the BDA claims.

I've not seen anything this silly since ... well people arguing by what % 50GB is higher than 30GB.

It all depends on what your reference is. HD DVD is catching up with BD in terms of weekly sales ratio - but not in terms of YTD or SI totals. Lets move on.

Not with that comment Nat! You're right, it is pretty silly to think selling less is doing well. :rolleyes: (I'm not sure you can demonstrate that selling less is good, even using String Theory - http://superstringtheory.com/).

The kindest thing I can say about your view is that I agree that the sales volume gap between Blu-ray and HD DVD has been increasing at a slightly lower rate in the past few weeks.

If this is an achievement for the HD DVD camp then you really should raise your sights a little.

But, back to reality. I think both camps would like to be seeing weekly volumes above 100,000 by now. Blu-ray certainly, with the difference in studio support. That this hasn't happened is bound to be unsettling, but what is to be done.

HD DVD have decided to cut hardware prices. Blu-ray have decided to sit tight and bank on the studio support coming good for them as more blockbusters are fed into the Blu-ray library.

Ken Graffeo seems convinced that HD DVD will start to catch up (even he's at it) in the 4th quarter. Sony seem to think that HD DVD will be enjoying a market share on a par with their Japanese counterparts by Christmas.

In the meantime we can all have fun with the weekly Nielsen numbers. Trust me, a lot of people think people posting here are slightly worse than silly - and that includes the people who only post the "I can't believe you're still talking about....." comments - especially them! :p

Blu-ray studios are clearly rationing AAA blockbuster releases this early in the year, but are aware they will sell in big numbers (for HD) when released.

On the HD-DVD side it seems a risky strategy to allow BD to outsell them 2-1 for the course of the year, then hope to blow BD away with cheap Chinese players in Q4.

What if BD floods the market with AAA titles and introduces competitively priced players in the meantime, all of which are likeyl?

What if BD floods the market with AAA titles and introduces competitively priced players in the meantime, all of which are likeyl?
I don't think they can. Sony can't afford to lose 10-20% of their PS3 sales, and undercut their standalones, so they won't grant the licenses.

My analysis:

This week had no day-and-date releases, and three neutral catalog releases. Interestingly, Payback sold better than A Scanner Darkly. Old mainstream beats new arthouse.

In this extremely neutral week, which little mass appeal, sales were about 30,000 for BD and 20,000 for HD DVD, per above estimates. In another week, title advantage would add on top of that.

you in particular though have a small problem. You spent a couple of weeks repeatedly posting that BD was outselling HD 4:1, and touting that as a sign of BDs strength. However, it is now back down to where it pretty much has been for a while 1.5-2:1. so, in some respects, in the context of your earlier posts, BD has lost some of its strength so to speak.

Uh, dude, you DO know that 4:1 lead was because of CR, right, and that it could not have lasted?

Indeed. Those conclusions based on Casino Royale were misguided to begin with.

Not with that comment Nat! You're right, it is pretty silly to think selling less is doing well. :rolleyes:

Since you can't figure out what I'm saying. Let me spell it out for you.

It is silly to be talking about "catching up" - without defining what exactly you mean. Depending on the definition (i.e. whether you are looking at weekly ratio, ytd or SI numbers) you get different answers.

I can clearly see both sides of the argument - can you ?

Yeah I see HD DVD in a downward trend for the last two weeks, just like BD...

What do you see?

I don't really know why you are replying to my posts. Afterall you have extreme prejudice against anyone who works for MS - as you stated yourself.

Go back and read the context.

What if BD floods the market with AAA titles and introduces competitively priced players in the meantime, all of which are likeyl?


What if BD weren't actually all one entity but a collective of CE groups and studios, and were all acting somewhat independent of each other and in whatever way their priorities dictated?

Why then you'd have players that don't all conform to spec and studios who release titles as they see fit, based on things like copy-protection and implementation of BDJ. Some CE groups might even branch off into releasing hybrid players. ;)