Amazon has a higher proportion of low volume niche and specialty sales, as they can afford to stock those low selling long tail sales and a retail B&M location cannot.

For HD DVD and Blu-ray for example, most retailers do not carry the inventory Amazon does. For a tech savvy purchaser, Amazon's cheaper prices may drive addtional sales.

At this point, its probable that Amazon may sell a higher proportion of total sales of HD DVDs and Blu-ray discs than it does of DVDs as those are niche products.

That will drop in the future as high def media gets better stockage at brick and mortar stores but Amazon is probably pretty important to HD media sales right now.

I think those Amazon stock levels are a bit screwy. They could be true but, other than recent big releases they seem to have large stocks still of the recent sale titles, such as over 1000 copies of Tears Of The Sun at a rank of 17,990. There are far more sustained selling titles that have stock levels in the low tens of copies. They also seem to have close to a thousand of all the Living Landscape titles that are languishing low in the ranks. I know they've only just been released but having 1000 copies of a title that ranks close to 45,000 is a bit extreme. There's probably either some sale or return going on or the stock counters aren't working too well.

This gives a good idea about Amazon market share of retail in general.

http://www.longtail.com/the_long_tail/2005/11/questioning_the.html

Said to be 10-15%. There is an interesting discussion on the "Long Tail" in that article for books - in our lingo catalog sales. Amazon has a higher % in long tail sales - some 1/3rd. Infact Netflix apparently buys a high proprtion of long tail titles.

But doesn't most DVDs say not for rent etc? It's been so long since I rented anything that I can't remember but aren't rentals usually a separate pressing? Same content but different warnings etc?

I think those Amazon stock levels are a bit screwy. They could be true but, other than recent big releases they seem to have large stocks still of the recent sale titles, such as over 1000 copies of Tears Of The Sun at a rank of 17,990. There are far more sustained selling titles that have stock levels in the low tens of copies. They also seem to have close to a thousand of all the Living Landscape titles that are languishing low in the ranks. I know they've only just been released but having 1000 copies of a title that ranks close to 45,000 is a bit extreme. There's probably either some sale or return going on or the stock counters aren't working too well.

Considering that they probably had to press at least 10.000 copies I don't think it's that strange. It's not like Amazon have paid for all these. They pay as they sell on most stuff like this. Only people complaining are the warehouse guys.

There was a thread a few weeks ago where an insider said that it seemed like the smallest run you could get for Blu Ray was 10.000 (and 5.000 for HD DVD)

But doesn't most DVDs say not for rent etc? It's been so long since I rented anything that I can't remember but aren't rentals usually a separate pressing? Same content but different warnings etc?

I don't think so. Moreover in the US nobody can stop you from renting DVDs you have bought. This is because of "first sale doctrine". Note that in Europe this is not the case.

In exchange for the federal government protecting copyright holders from unauthorized publication or performance of their works, copyright law requires copyright holders to give up their ability to control distribution of those works once they have put them into the stream of commerce (except in certain carefully delineated instances). This principle, commonly referred to as the "first sale doctrine," is codified in Section 109 of the Copyright Act.

Section 109(a) provides that, notwithstanding a copyright holder's distribution right, the owner of a particular copy or phonorecord lawfully made under U.S. copyright law "is entitled, without the authority of the copyright owner, to sell or otherwise dispose of that copy or phonorecord."

http://www.entmerch.org/body_positions.html

So does anyone think that Amazon actually have 70000 BD in stock? That would be about 300 copies per titles on average. That's quite a bit considering the low number of disc sold. We're looking at over a week worth inventory?

Week ? Assuming Amazon sells some 15% of total Blu-ray and an average of 200K per month of total BD sales - they sell some 30K per month. So, 70K is more than 2 months inventory.

But that is just the average. On some titles they may have inventory worth 2 years and on some only a week.

Week ? Assuming Amazon sells some 15% of total Blu-ray and an average of 200K per month of total BD sales - they sell some 30K per month. So, 70K is more than 2 months inventory.

But that is just the average. On some titles they may have inventory worth 2 years and on some only a week.

I thought that Amazon and Walmart practice Just-in-Time inventory. It would be unusual to carry more than a couple of days worth of stock.

I thought that Amazon and Walmart practice Just-in-Time inventory. It would be unusual to carry more than a couple of days worth of stock.

I have no idea what their normal inventory levels are - but 2 days of inventory for low volume items like hidef dvds is impossible. Infact if you read the link about the LongTail and how Amazon serves LT, you will see that they have to carry some minimum inventory for all items, irrespective of how long it will take to sell them. Otherwise shipping to their warehouses will be cost prohibitive.

You mean 20M/yr and US only

oops, yup M not k

1. Guess the BD/HD percentage for week ending May 6
2. Guess the 'podium' (first, second and third title) on the hidef sellers list

66/34
1) Night at the Museum BD
2) Dreamgirls BD
3) Dreamgirls HDDVD

I don't think so. Moreover in the US nobody can stop you from renting DVDs you have bought. This is because of "first sale doctrine". Note that in Europe this is not the case.



http://www.entmerch.org/body_positions.html

Thanks, wasn't aware of that. Makes perfect sense then for Netflix and others to buy low volume stuff from somewhere like Amazon instead of buying from hundreds of different small distributors.

I thought that Amazon and Walmart practice Just-in-Time inventory. It would be unusual to carry more than a couple of days worth of stock. They absolutley do JIT or ship from source for some very low volume books, but fro a dew hundred or even thousands of HD titles, no reason not to stock them. They will sell eventually. The physical storage cost is small.

But I agree , reading the tea leaves of the reported stockage levels is thetoughest thing we are trying to do as the assumptions of inflow and when they receive things are pretty aggressive.

A water level does not always give a good feeling of the leaks and rate of refilling of the container.

Where/how does one get the stock level in Amazon?

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/6/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
4 THE HITCHER (UNI, $39.98)
5 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
6 ALPHA DOG (UNI, $39.98)
7 FEAR & LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)
8 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
9 ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (UNI, $29.98)
10 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/6/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 DÉJÀ VU (BV, $34.99)
5 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
7 RESERVOIR DOGS (LG, $29.99)
8 TERMINATOR 2: JUDGMENT DAY (LG, $29.99)
9 HAPPILY N'EVER AFTER (LG, $39.99)
10 THE QUEEN (BV, $34.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/6/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)


Interesting. As I expected DG beats NATM. BTW, are videoscan estimates generally the same as Rentracks ?

I would guess so, not sure. This is posted on there website.
Top 10 Report (Movies)

Just 48 hours after the close of the business week, Rentrak's Retail Essentials™ Top 10 Selling Title Report publishes estimated national consumer spending for the brick-and-mortar sales channel for the Top 10 DVD, UMD, HD DVD, and Blu-Ray Disc titles. Only Rentrak is capable of providing such timely, accurate national estimations. Link (http://www.retail.rentrak.com/marketing/research/top_movies.html)

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/6/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
4 THE HITCHER (UNI, $39.98)
5 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
snip

TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/6/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 DÉJÀ VU (BV, $34.99)
5 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
snip

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
snip.

Wow, am I the only one who find it pretty surprising that Planet Earth beat out Night at the Museum already the second week?

Actually if these ranks hold over to Nielsen I think the split is gonna be much more even than many thought. It's pretty likely that Dreamgirls and Planet Earth sold roughly equally on both formats and if they take the top two spots it's bound to be a closer gap this week.

Interesting. As I expected DG beats NATM. BTW, are videoscan estimates generally the same as Rentracks ?

Fairly similar, but not the same.

For example the previous week for HD DVD was:

Rentrak
1. Planet Earth
2. Smokin' Aces
3 Children of Men
4. Happy Feet
5. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Nielsen VideoScan
1. Planet Earth
2. Smokin' Aces
3. Digital Video Essentials
4. Batman Begins
5. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless

Previous week for Blu-ray:

Rentrak
1. Night at the Museum
2. Planet Earth
3. Deja Vu
4 Casino Royale
5. The Queen

Nielsen VideoScan
Top 5 BD
1. Night at the Museum
2. Deja Vu
3. Planet Earth
4. The Queen
5. Casino Royale

Just a refresher from last week:

TOP 10 Hi Def Optical Media
1. Night at the Museum BD 100.00
2. Deja Vu BD 75.04
3. Planet Earth HD-DVD 32.78
4. Planet Earth BD 24.14
5. The Queen BD 17.29
6. Smokin' Aces HD-DVD 17.24
7. Casino Royal BD 14.33
8. Happy Feet BD 7.19
9. Black Hawk Down BD 7.05
10. The Departed BD 5.82

I would guess that Smokin Aces will just about hang on in the top 10 giving HD DVD 3 titles out of 10 this week.

The Hitcher & Alpha Dog are both (relative) HD flops and as for Happily N'ever After, what a stinker!

Not too big a shock I suppose as the above mentioned movies were all BO flops as well.

Excellent result for Planet Earth. Maybe Amazon are onto somenthing after all. ;)

It looks to me - there is a loyal band of people in both BD and HD DVD buying titles week after week when well known day & date titles come out. They number probably 20 to 30K on BD and some 10 to 20K on HD.

Doesn't look like this group is increasing in streangth or that the base of non-loyalists is increasing. That is why we see almost flat sales with titles released being the only variable.

It looks to me - there is a loyal band of people in both BD and HD DVD buying titles week after week when well known day & date titles come out. They number probably 20 to 30K on BD and some 10 to 20K on HD.

Doesn't look like this group is increasing in streangth or that the base of non-loyalists is increasing. That is why we see almost flat sales with titles released being the only variable.
Although sales will pick up later in the year, I truly believe the format war is prohibiting adoption... we really need this war to end in order for a HDM to take off. As long as this war continues, we'll see relatively stagnate sales. :(

Although sales will pick up later in the year, I truly believe the format war is prohibiting adoption... we really need this war to end in order for a HDM to take off. As long as this war continues, we'll see relatively stagnate sales. :(

I tend to agree. I can't see even cheaper ($199) players driving adoption much. People either don't know about the formats (because of low exposure since sales are low) or they want to wait for a winner (they remember the previous format war).

I tend to agree. I can't see even cheaper ($199) players driving adoption much. People either don't know about the formats (because of low exposure since sales are low) or they want to wait for a winner (they remember the previous format war).

The markup on Chinese name brands is usually very high. If $199 players went on sale for $149 and dropped to $99 by next year, BD is finished. Low-cost hardware takes the risk factor out of the purchase process. Format war or not, a lot of people will jump in.

Sony needs to counter with their own cheap players or drop the price of the PS3. At the rate the PS3 is selling now, it will take years to get a high market penetration.

BD is finished.

They could make ferraris cost 1500 new at the dealer, but not include the engine. That wouldnt make them the top selling car of all time. You have to remember, content IS important. If someone cannot watch his all time favorite movies in HD on the format, what is the format worth to that person?

They could make ferraris cost 1500 new at the dealer, but not include the engine. That wouldnt make them the top selling car of all time. You have to remember, content IS important. If someone cannot watch his all time favorite movies in HD on the format, what is the format worth to that person?

I think his argument is that people will buy a cheap player that won't play everything and once there are enough of them the holdout studios will be forced to offer their titles too. It is an interesting theory and it will be interesting to see if it plays out that way should the necessary conditions present themselves. I think it is folly to assume we'll see anything below a $199 player this year or even early next year though.

If $199 players went on sale for $149 and dropped to $99 by next year, BD is finished.

This is really OT for this thread - but I don't think this is likely.

Low-cost hardware takes the risk factor out of the purchase process. Format war or not, a lot of people will jump in.


This ofcourse is the key to taking hidef dvd mainstream. Otherwise they are headed to the same niche DVD-A/SACD was sent to.

Although sales will pick up later in the year, I truly believe the format war is prohibiting adoption... we really need this war to end in order for a HDM to take off. As long as this war continues, we'll see relatively stagnate sales. :(
On Demand and video downloads will probably take over before HD DVD/BD will be able to gain wide acceptance. On Demand is just too easy for people to use. I know people who swore they would never need it or use it, but once they have tried it, if the signal goes out, they are crying that they can't watch their On Demand. Now they rarely rent or buy any discs and stick to On Demand for most of their movie watching.
Personally If I could get the same quality and features as BD/HD DVD with On Demand, I would stop buying the discs and use On Demand for 90% of the titles.

Personally If I could get the same quality and features as BD/HD DVD with On Demand...

You won't. That's why HD on optical discs needs to be a success.

You won't. That's why HD on optical discs needs to be a success.

Totally agree.

But the majority of people are only interested in the movie, and I'm not talking about the people on AVS. Your average person is quite content with On Demand.

You won't. That's why HD on optical discs needs to be a success.

Not to mention that geographical restrictions for online content are going to be a big PITA. Hell, I can't even watch the goals of the Spanish soccer league (http://www.elpais.com/deportes/futbol/liga/2007) online! :mad:

On Demand and video downloads will probably take over before HD DVD/BD will be able to gain wide acceptance.

Already more On Demand / download movies are sold / rented than HiDef DVD. But, I physical media and online distributions serve two separate sets of markets and thus will co-exist. Just like in the case of music - where online distribution is a lot more feasible and popular, yet has less than 10% of the music market.

You won't. That's why HD on optical discs needs to be a success.
Totally agree.I believe the number of people that are able - have the eye, ear and gear - to see/hear the difference between a 6GB (360 Live)
and 26GB (BD/HD) version of a movie, is probably in the same ballpark as the number of people that have experienced D-VHS.

As long as this is the case, one can't claim BD/HD are off life support.
And not much needs to happen for this support to be cut off.

Diogen.

Week 60/40
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43

Top 10 hidef sellers
1. Planet Earth HD DVD 100
2. Planet EArth BD 95.07
3. Night at the Museum BD 78.28
4. Deja Vu BD 68.84
5. Dreamgirls BD 67.59
6. Dreamgirls HD 44.17
7. Casino Royale BD 33.32
8. Alpha Dog HD DVD 28.91
9. Smokin' Aces HD DVD 24.42
10. Digital Video Essentials HD DVD 23.78

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100
2. Dreamgirls 44.17
3. Alpha Dog 28.91
4. Smokin' Aces 24.42
5. Digital Video Essentials 23.78

Top 5 BD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Night at the Museum 82.34
3. Deja Vu 72.41
4. Dreamgirls 71.09
5. Casino Royale 33.05

I believe the number of people that are able - have the eye, ear and gear - to see/hear the difference between a 6GB (360 Live)
and 26GB (BD/HD) version of a movie, is probably in the same ballpark as the number of people that have experienced D-VHS.

As of today, I agree with the "gear" part, but 1080p displays will come down in price, and fast. With the "eye and ear" part I strongly disagree.

What I meant by saying that HD on optical discs 'needs' to be a success was that at least here on AVS it should be a given that we all want the absolutely best quality possible, not something that is 'ok' or 'good enough'.

And for the record, I'm pretty sure that Blu-ray/HD-DVD will be cheap enough soon enough that one or both of them will be successful on a mass market scale. It's not like everyone has broadband internet today either, much less the extra "gear" it takes to get the content on the TV screen.

Week 60/40
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43

60, 68 and 57 being blu-ray? If so, I guess the wait until next week that I kept hearing from certain HD-DVD fans wasn't quite accurate.

What is the link for this info?

Week 60/40
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43

Wasn't it 58/42 SI last week?

If BD sold 60/40 for the week, how did the SI numbers change in the opposite direction?

That will make it hard to work out sales numbers! :)

Kosty 59/41
JE3146 61/39

These win the prize for best guess :)

a couple at 68:32 were a bit over-excited though :p

Kosty 59/41
JE3146 61/39

These win the prize for best guess :)

a couple at 68:32 were a bit over-excited though :p


Hot damn :D

What's the prize ;)?

If BD sold 60/40 for the week, how did the SI numbers change in the opposite direction?

Perhaps First Alert Data Syndrome? Prior week BD sales may have been over reported because of preliminary data.

Wasn't it 58/42 SI last week?

If BD sold 60/40 for the week, how did the SI numbers change in the opposite direction?

That will make it hard to work out sales numbers! :)

Since the numbers were rounded, they could have changed a fraction of a percent and swayed it the other way. As was mentioned above, it could be some alterations in the data.

Hey, Grubert didn't actually say BD was the winner, right? If HD-DVD won that would explain the SI differences.

(Like others here I assume BD had 60% and HD-DVD 40% but just throwing out this possibility.)

Hey, Grubert didn't actually say BD was the winner, right? If HD-DVD won that would explain the SI differences.

(Like others here I assume BD had 60% and HD-DVD 40% but just throwing out this possibility.)

Yes, BD 60 HD 40. Sorry for the omission.

Interesting that Planet Earth on both formats topped the overall chart. History suggests that second week sales are smaller so could be both formats took a hit in sales this week. Did someone say niche? Sales certainly aren't correlating with the general DVD buying public. Here's the top DVD sellers:

1. Dreamgirls 100.00
2. Night At THe Museum 70.41
3. Deja Vu 22.32

10. Planet Earth 7.02

I guess the wait until next week that I kept hearing from certain HD-DVD fans wasn't quite accurate.


Give us the links to such quotes. Don't just build a strawman ...

I am inclined to believe that last weeks 79:29 was adjusted to show a similar 60:40 ratio as this week....hence why HD DVD picked up points in SI, although BD sold more for the week.

A rounding off error in one week cannot result in a 1% point gain SI - or so it seems to me. The adjustment must have been significant.

Since the numbers were rounded, they could have changed a fraction of a percent and swayed it the other way. As was mentioned above, it could be some alterations in the data.

Perhaps they changed the way they round the numbers :)

Since the YTD did not change at all (it should have moved in HD DVD's favour - both SI and YTD should move, albeit a small amount, towards the week in question's numbers), and this weird change with the SI numbers, I think it is safe to say that the overall sales were low this week.

Regardless, if BD outsold HD DVD by greater than the SI numbers (as is indicated), the SI numbers should not have changed in favour of HD DVD...

I am inclined to believe that last weeks 79:29 was adjusted to show a similar 60:40 ratio as this week....hence why HD DVD picked up points in SI, although BD sold more for the week.

A rounding off error in one week cannot result in a 1% point gain SI - or so it seems to me. The adjustment must have been significant.

I simply meant if the numbers were adjusted, it could have changed a fraction of a percent, and then rounded.

The jump may look substantial either way (it did when it was first shown last week), but odds are it was just a .1% shift.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom051307/

Obviously the SI cannot go into reverse unless HD DVD starts to sell more - highly unlikely - but without accurate figures it's futile trying to guess what really happened. There was an error in rounding last week or this week.

I'm inclined to think the SI is still in fact 58:42 and someone had made a generous rounding in HD DVD's favour. So 57.98 becomes 57 for BD and 42.02 becomes 43 for HD DVD!

A rounding off error in one week cannot result in a 1% point gain SI - or so it seems to me. The adjustment must have been significant.

I tend to agree - an adjustment of last weeks numbers was not something I had considered.

If they do adjust numbers in retro, it makes it even harder to determine the sales numbers etc. from this kind of information!

Week 60/40
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43

With this we have 3 weeks of 68/32 YTD in a row. We have to make up a finer granular number to resolve it. To me 67.8 looks the best bet. Last week I had assumed 68.16 ... and since the weekly ratio is 60:40 the YTD ratio had to come down a bit this week.

Moreover I expect lower sales than last week for BD (looking at the top 10 chart).

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/8814/vsil2.png (http://imageshack.us)

Obviously the SI cannot go into reverse unless HD DVD starts to sell more

Wrong. If the weekly numbers are better (for HD) than SI ratio, it will go into reverse.

Here is a simple exercise.

SI number last week : 800, 200
Weekly number this week : 60, 40

SI ratio last week : 80/20
SI ratio this week : ?/?

Do you think it will be more than 80 or less than 80 ?

If you assume (and yes that's obviously gonna be a BIG assume but probably the best we have this week) that Casino sold the same this week as last week then the top 5 BD would sell about 60 percent of what it sold last week.

It would mean though that Planet Earth sold more on both formats the second week and in BD quite a bit more.

Too bad we don't get Batman figures every week as that would probably have been the best indicator.

If you instead assume that Planet Earth in HD DVD sold the same as last week the top 5 BD would have sold about 50 percent of last week.

edit:
and the top 5 HD DVD would have been up about 50 percent. More Edit: sorry that should be up about 12 percent (not 50). Looks more likely than Casino being the same.
end edit

Have we figured out approximately how big a share the top 5 usually is?

Top 10 hidef sellers
1. Planet Earth HD DVD 100
2. Planet EArth BD 95.07
3. Night at the Museum BD 78.28
4. Deja Vu BD 68.84
5. Dreamgirls BD 67.59
6. Dreamgirls HD 44.17
7. Casino Royale BD 33.32
8. Alpha Dog HD DVD 28.91
9. Smokin' Aces HD DVD 24.42
10. Digital Video Essentials HD DVD 23.78

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100
2. Dreamgirls 44.17
3. Alpha Dog 28.91
4. Smokin' Aces 24.42
5. Digital Video Essentials 23.78

Top 5 BD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Night at the Museum 82.34
3. Deja Vu 72.41
4. Dreamgirls 71.09
5. Casino Royale 33.05

For comparison

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/3325/dvdgy3.png (http://imageshack.us)

I think the coolest thing about that list (Top 10 DVD sellers) is that only ONE of those are not available on HD at all.

Week 60/40
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43


Wow, those 3 millions PS3's are really ripping HD DVD apart aren't they? I mean 60/40 split for the week. How could HD DVD possibly survive?! ;)

Wrong. If the weekly numbers are better (for HD) than SI ratio, it will go into reverse.

Here is a simple exercise.

SI number last week : 800, 200
Weekly number this week : 60, 40

SI ratio last week : 80/20
SI ratio this week : ?/?

Do you think it will be more than 80 or less than 80 ?

The weekly number is WORSE than the SI number, so it cannot go in reverse.....unless I am missing something here :confused:

The weekly number is WORSE than the SI number, so it cannot go in reverse.....unless I am missing something here :confused:

You are right. I was just commenting on the specific sentance - it sounded like he was saying HD has to actually beat BD for the SI number to reverse.

I think the coolest thing about that list (Top 10 DVD sellers) is that only ONE of those are not available on HD at all.

But you would need to buy both formats. I really do think all studios should go neutral and let the consumers decide who wins ...

I think the coolest thing about that list (Top 10 DVD sellers) is that only ONE of those are not available on HD at all.

I'm sure this is a stupid question, but which one?

I'm sure this is a stupid question, but which one?

Not really :o

I haden't noticed that Happily N'ever After was out on Blu Ray. I had actually never heard of the movie. Sorry bout that but it makes my original statement even better.

Not a single one of the top 10 sellers on DVD are missing from HD.

I haden't noticed that Happily N'ever After was out on Blu Ray. I had actually never heard of the movie. Sorry bout that but it makes my original statement even better.

Not a single one of the top 10 sellers on DVD are missing from HD.

Well that means, even if Happily was missing - we wouldn't have missed it at all ;)

Well that means, even if Happily was missing - we wouldn't have missed it at all ;)

It is a very awful film, so hardly surprising it didn't make much of a sales splash on BD or SD.

Two possible reasons for the Planet Earth jump:

- Positive buzz and reviews increased sales after release
- Several retailers (including amazon) sold out of their initial allotment and eventually shipped a week after release

Note that both editions of Planet Earth are #2 on the respective Rentrak charts.

If Night at the Museum sold 10.000 first week then

Total NatM: 12.566
Total PE: 12.086

If Night at the Museum sold 15.000 first week then

Total NatM: 20.099
Total PE: 21.120

Also Casino Royale is down to somewhere between 1.000 - 1.500 per week. Can't remember how far back the 60.000 sold was but it seems like it will take some time for it to get to 100.000. Actually it's quite possible that some not yet released title will beat it there.

Wrong. If the weekly numbers are better (for HD) than SI ratio, it will go into reverse.

Here is a simple exercise.

SI number last week : 800, 200
Weekly number this week : 60, 40

SI ratio last week : 80/20
SI ratio this week : ?/?

Do you think it will be more than 80 or less than 80 ?

Except I wasn't talking about your example.

BD has sold 1.4 million
HD DVD has sold 1 million

To shift the ratio from 58:42 to 57:43 in a week HD DVD sure as hell DOES have to outsell Blu-ray!

To shift the ratio from 58:42 to 57:43 in a week HD DVD sure as hell DOES have to outsell Blu-ray!

I think we all agree that the numbers do not make sense.

Based on that, I think that nataraj's term 'making up' (as in "We have to make up a finer granular number to resolve it.") is a very accurate term. There is no deterministic answer and any sales numbers from this week are pure speculation.

These numbers apparently can't be trusted on a week to week basis.

Retrospective corrections are the only explanation that makes any sense to me at the moment.

Interesting that Planet Earth on both formats topped the overall chart. History suggests that second week sales are smaller so could be both formats took a hit in sales this week. Did someone say niche? Sales certainly aren't correlating with the general DVD buying public. Here's the top DVD sellers:

1. Dreamgirls 100.00
2. Night At THe Museum 70.41
3. Deja Vu 22.32

10. Planet Earth 7.02

Well who wants to watch PE on DVD. It actually does make sense to want to watch it i hd.

Two possible reasons for the Planet Earth jump:

- Positive buzz and reviews increased sales after release
- Several retailers (including amazon) sold out of their initial allotment and eventually shipped a week after release

Or dreamgirls had poor sales (for a day & date blockbuster).


Note that both editions of Planet Earth are #2 on the respective Rentrak charts.

Could be the Amazon effect - Rentrak is apparently only B&M.

Next week's releases are all BD. Given with rating from RottonTomatoes and the Box Office.

05/08 Catch and Release New 22% 15M
Dirty Dancing Catalog 65% 63M
Donnie Brasco Catalog 85% 42M
Revenge Catalog 38% 15M

Given that the New release is not a blockbuster, I expect PE and N@TM to continue to top. BD ratio may increase a bit compared to HD, but not by much. The total numbers will probably go down.

Well who wants to watch PE on DVD. It actually does make sense to want to watch it i hd.
Even though PE was a poor seller on DVD, it likely still sold 30-50X as many copies as it did on PE BD and HDDVD combined. In fact, it probably sold more copies than all the BD+HDDVD disks combined that week. ;)

Even though PE was a poor seller on DVD, it likely still sold 30-50X as many copies as it did on PE BD and HDDVD combined. In fact, it probably sold more copies than all the BD+HDDVD disks combined that week. ;)

Not just that, PE sold as much as BD would sell in a whole month. Or three weeks of BD + HD DVD together. Night at the Museum sold in one week 3 times what HD + BD has sold in a year.

If Night at the Museum sold 6M, PE on DVD sold about 200K. Not bad.

Ofcourse it sold so much more on HD - instead of 3.3% of Night at the Museum, it sold nearly 56%.

With this we have 3 weeks of 68/32 YTD in a row. We have to make up a finer granular number to resolve it. To me 67.8 looks the best bet. Last week I had assumed 68.16 ... and since the weekly ratio is 60:40 the YTD ratio had to come down a bit this week.

Moreover I expect lower sales than last week for BD (looking at the top 10 chart).

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/8814/vsil2.png (http://imageshack.us)

Uh... is it just me or is this graph not, quite indicative of a growing medium?

Week after week.

I think it's very clear that people are buying a few titles when they first take the plunge and, pretty much renting from there on out. Sure wish we had more rental data.

DreamGirls BD
DreamGirls HD DVD
Night at the Museum BD
The Hitcher HD DVD
Planet Earth HD DVD
Planet Earth BD
Alpha Dog HD DVD
Happily N'ever After BD

60-40 Blu-ray

I was way off on the titles but at least I got the ratio right.

Sorry if this has been covered, but are these Nielsen numbers for just the US, or do they include Canada?

I see that at least one person is still using PS3s sold in Japan, Europe and other places outside of NA to make the software sales look worse, despite those software sales being for the US (or NA). I wish people would at least be honest and mention that they are using worldwide numbers for hardware against localized numbers for software.

--Darin

Uh... is it just me or is this graph not, quite indicative of a growing medium?

Week after week.

I think it's very clear that people are buying a few titles when they first take the plunge and, pretty much renting from there on out. Sure wish we had more rental data.

Pretty much my thoughts. Despite this just being a niche market right now, neither format really looks like it's growing, or those lines would be making a steady incline.

Looking at HD DVD, they started off the year selling between 20 and 30k per week, and that's still where they're at.

BD started off between 40 and 50, and they actually look a little lower (between 30 and 40) the last few weeks.

You would think that both formats would actually be selling more copies per week by now, rather than remainining relatively steady.

Sorry if this has been covered, but are these Nielsen numbers for just the US, or do they include Canada?

IIRC, they are just US.

Uh... is it just me or is this graph not, quite indicative of a growing medium?

Week after week.

I think it's very clear that people are buying a few titles when they first take the plunge and, pretty much renting from there on out. Sure wish we had more rental data.

I've been saying this for sometime. Infact there were several regressions that people posted claiming upward curve for BD.

But I should caution that the numbers could be wrong - since the YTD ratios are not moving at all, week after week and we have to assume some decimal place to get a number. But I don't think the numbers are hugely wrong ... I think the final takeaway that on the avg the sales are not increasing for either BD or HD is correct.

Interesting that Planet Earth on both formats topped the overall chart. History suggests that second week sales are smaller so could be both formats took a hit in sales this week. Did someone say niche? Sales certainly aren't correlating with the general DVD buying public. Here's the top DVD sellers:

1. Dreamgirls 100.00
2. Night At THe Museum 70.41
3. Deja Vu 22.32

10. Planet Earth 7.02
Note that the DVD numbers dropped by about a third last week. Perhaps the drop was in the same ballpark for hi-def.

P.S. Here's the screengrab:

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/TopTenHD.jpg

BTW, I haven't been following the thread closely. Is Grubert getting the numbers only when Home Media Magazine comes out?

Note that the DVD numbers dropped by about a third last week.

Where do you get weekly DVD numbers ? Any links ?

BTW, I haven't been following the thread closely. Is Grubert getting the numbers only when Home Media Magazine comes out?

On Friday when HMM is posted to their site (even though not linked yet).

Where do you get weekly DVD numbers ? Any links ?
Same magazine. Note, to be clear: They're just talking about the top 20 DVDs.

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/TopTwentyDVD.jpg

I expect the data now should clearly show that it is the new titles (especially day date releases) that drive the sales, and the next milestone test is may 22nd. Both formats should grow their weekly numbers that week. If a release slate like May22 doesn't cause either to cross 100K as a psychologically important milestone that week, then we could say HDMs are not growing at a healthy rate. It is important that the dominant format continues to knock out these tiny milestones one by one.

The next big milestones would be Ghost Rider, 300, Spidey, and the really big milestones would be when Spidey3, PotC3 (maybe Shrek III) come out.

At some point, Star Wars, Aliens, Indiana Jones, Jurrassic Park(maybe), Back to the Future could play a role (though I'm not sure how the last three will do, being rather dated by now.

Week 60/40
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43
59%/41%

Blu-ray over HD DVD once again, but the gap closes as HD DVD regains some market share back
Hot damn :D

What's the prize ;)?Do we get a cookie? :D :p

It seems that there are some signiifcant adjustments to the SI and YTD ratios that incorporate the corrections to the preceeding week as the data becomes finalized.

By not giving us that corrected figure for the past week and leaving us hanging with the first alert numbers, they are trying to maek it difficult for us the get exact weekly numbers.

Too bad we can't go back and recalculate the preceeding weeks corrected numbers when we get the next weeks SI and YTD and new first alert numbers.

Or can we? I think I asked this question before.

Too bad we can't go back and recalculate the preceeding weeks corrected numbers when we get the next weeks SI and YTD and new first alert numbers.

Or can we? I think I asked this question before.

We can easily do that ... my spreadsheet is completely formula driven. But without the corrected numbers - there is nothing to correct. More importantly without ratios of higher precision, what we are getting now are basically just the weekly ratios - not enough to get actual sell-through numbers ...

Hopefully we will get a complete breakdown of actual numbers one of these days - like we got from Sony.

Wrong. If the weekly numbers are better (for HD) than SI ratio, it will go into reverse.


Nataraj: true, but irrelevent in this case.

Could be the Amazon effect - Rentrak is apparently only B&M.

Nataraj (I know you said apparently) but I always found Rentrak to match Amazon a bit more then VS. I always thought Amazon had a larger role to play in their numbers

Except I wasn't talking about your example.

BD has sold 1.4 million
HD DVD has sold 1 million

To shift the ratio from 58:42 to 57:43 in a week HD DVD sure as hell DOES have to outsell Blu-ray!

that is not exactly true. we don't have precise numbers, if it is 57.6:42.4 ->57.4:42.6 the change is smaller. The only thing certain is that weekly BD <58 and HD DVD>42. Obviously as time goes buy you most likely need a bigger weekly difference to have a smaller SI one.

Sorry if this has been covered, but are these Nielsen numbers for just the US, or do they include Canada?

it was discussed before, but I don't think anyone knows

Except I wasn't talking about your example.

BD has sold 1.4 million
HD DVD has sold 1 million

To shift the ratio from 58:42 to 57:43 in a week HD DVD sure as hell DOES have to outsell Blu-ray!

Ok. Let us look at your example.

SI number last week : 1,352,941 / 1,000,000
Weekly number this week : 30,000 / 25,000

SI ratio last week : 57.5 / 42.5
SI ratio this week : 57.4 / 42.6

Ok. Let us look at your example.

SI number last week : 1,352,941 / 1,000,000
Weekly number this week : 30,000 / 25,000

SI ratio last week : 57.5 / 42.5
SI ratio this week : 57.4 / 42.6

But I used the numbers 1.4 million Vs. 1 million.

Have another go. :)

Given the propensity for New titles to be the real market-movers versus catalog titles, I don't believe May 22 is as important a date as many others are thinking. We'll probably see some (temporary) weekly growth, but keep in mind POTC and Matrix are catalog titles, and Matrix will probably be hit by the 3-in-one price tag issue we saw with PE.

The real climactic battle will be this Fall, when all this summer's blockbusters hit the slate as New releases. This other stuff is mostly PR ammo.

But I used the numbers 1.4 million Vs. 1 million.

but is it 1.4million exactly or rounded to the first decimal?

1,352,941 is rounded to 1.4M :)

Have another go. :)

I definitely have better things to do in life :p

And Anthony has already answered ...

Pretty much my thoughts. Despite this just being a niche market right now, neither format really looks like it's growing, or those lines would be making a steady incline.

Looking at HD DVD, they started off the year selling between 20 and 30k per week, and that's still where they're at.

BD started off between 40 and 50, and they actually look a little lower (between 30 and 40) the last few weeks.

You would think that both formats would actually be selling more copies per week by now, rather than remainining relatively steady.


I think there just isn't a large enough pool of buyers to cause an increase in software sales, after they catch-up with what is available, especially when your only seeing a few new titles per week.

Who buys movies they don't care about just to see them in HD?

I think there just isn't a large enough pool of buyers to cause an increase in software sales, after they catch-up with what is available, especially when your only seeing a few new titles per week.

Who buys movies they don't care about just to see them in HD?

There are some 25K new PS3 owners every week. May be 2 or 3K BD CE player owners. And some 10K new HD DVD player owners (Tosh + the add on).

Apart from these, there are 1.3M existing PS3 owners, 80K BD CE player owners and 250K HD DVD player owners.

I'd expect more sales than what we are seeing with even these many potential buyers. For eg. HD DVD owners aren't even buying one HD DVD a month (let alone an annualized attach rate of 28). PS3 owners aren't buying a BD movie even once in 6 months (on the average).

I saw one paper that says DVD sales are seasonal. If HDM follows the same pattern, they will continue to decline until November. http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~molin/papers/Movie%20Stars%20and%20Consumer%20Learning.pdf

nataraj, nobody afford movies after spending all money on players. ;)

But I think when people have bought their first 10 HighDef movie they will get more restricted and starts to buy movies they really wants. Thats its Highdef will not be enough in it self.

The first disc, will be anything they can get hold off. Nobody wants a player and no disc to play.
The Second disc will be the Demo disc they will show their friends and neigbours.
Then comes the avarage titles that maybe not the best, but they are OK to watch.

I dont know were the magic number will be 10 disc 15 disc 20 disc. But they will not buy the 21st disc with the same criteria as they bought the 3rd disc.

The Second disc will be the Demo disc they will show their friends and neigbours.
Then comes the avarage titles that maybe not the best, but they are OK to watch.

I dont know were the magic number will be 10 disc 15 disc 20 disc. But they will not buy the 21st disc with the same criteria as they bought the 3rd disc.

Well, speaking for myself, I see nothing coming out in either HDM format for the next few months that I give a rip about.

On the other hand in SD I see Sweet Movie (Criterion), The Popeye Box (Warner), The Woody Woodpecker Box (Universal), The Complete Droopy Box (Warner), El Topo (Anchor Bay, Holy Mountain (Anchor Bay), IF (Criterion) Bedazzled (original), Attack of the 50ft. Woman (Warner), Caged (Warner), Trog (Warner) and Pan's Labyrinth (New Line) are all a must.

I dont know were the magic number will be 10 disc 15 disc 20 disc. But they will not buy the 21st disc with the same criteria as they bought the 3rd disc.

If you see the attach rates, looks like people aren't even buying their first disc !

Just something I want to throw out there.

Does anyone find it odd that Planet Earth has been in the Amazon top 10 for quite a while? While I think it's fantastic for a High def disc to be up there for so long, I can't help but think, how many people bought it thinking it's the HD version of the DVD set - ie, it will play in their Upconverted player and then return it back to amazon.

The reason being is that HD DVD and Blu-ray sales on Amazon has been pretty even on a title. In fact, what we've all noticed is that usually the HD DVD version is the one that starts dropping down the list first - Departed, Happy Feet, etc... come to mind. However, the HD DVD version has been up and down but manages to climb back up quite a lot. HD DVD is at #5 while Blu-ray one is at #15. That's a huge gap in sales. It's just odd that it's only Planet Earth - not on any other titles.

Possible reasons:

1. Those unfamiliar with HD DVD may think it'll play on their DVD player.

2. This is a unique title. People buying Planet Earth will not only get it for the documentary aspect but also for the "WOW" factor. They know it's nature footage and will look great. And really, it is nature in HD that sticks out in people's mind when they see HD for the first time on TV. Hence, it could be extra incentive to pick the HD DVD version over the DVD unknowingly. No one buys movies mainly for the Picture (except us, of course) but this may be one exception.

I'm not trying to bash HD DVD with the thread. This is the kind of strategy that HD DVD was aware of and hopes to take advantage of, especially with its name. However, I hope someone, somewhere is crunching numbers of people who return their discs. Don't think we'll know but it would be interesting to see what affect, if any that had.

Of course, on the other hand, the sales gap can be due to HD DVD having more enthusiasts (evidenced by standalone sales) who appreciate documentaries over the younger PS3 owners who make up a sizable portion of Blu-ray fans.

Just something I want to throw out there.

Does anyone find it odd that Planet Earth has been in the Amazon top 10 for quite a while? While I think it's fantastic for a High def disc to be up there for so long, I can't help but think, how many people bought it thinking it's the HD version of the DVD set - ie, it will play in their Upconverted player and then return it back to amazon.

The reason being is that HD DVD and Blu-ray sales on Amazon has been pretty even on a title. In fact, what we've all noticed is that usually the HD DVD version is the one that starts dropping down the list first - Departed, Happy Feet, etc... come to mind. However, the HD DVD version has been up and down but manages to climb back up quite a lot. HD DVD is at #5 while Blu-ray one is at #15. That's a huge gap in sales. It's just odd that it's only Planet Earth - not on any other titles.

Possible reasons:

1. Those unfamiliar with HD DVD may think it'll play on their DVD player.

2. This is a unique title. People buying Planet Earth will not only get it for the documentary aspect but also for the "WOW" factor. They know it's nature footage and will look great. And really, it is nature in HD that sticks out in people's mind when they see HD for the first time on TV. Hence, it could be extra incentive to pick the HD DVD version over the DVD unknowingly. No one buys movies mainly for the Picture (except us, of course) but this may be one exception.

I'm not trying to bash HD DVD with the thread. This is the kind of strategy that HD DVD was aware of and hopes to take advantage of, especially with its name. However, I hope someone, somewhere is crunching numbers of people who return their discs. Don't think we'll know but it would be interesting to see what affect, if any that had.

Of course, on the other hand, the sales gap can be due to HD DVD having more enthusiasts (evidenced by standalone sales) who appreciate documentaries over the younger PS3 owners who make up a sizable portion of Blu-ray fans.

I think the main reason it has remained so high is the price

$66 on Amazon compared to $99.99 in Best Buy and Circuit City. Obviously all Blu-Ray and HD DVD discs are more more expensive in B&M stores, but Planet Earth is so much cheaper on Amazon it just makes sense to purchase it online. People can easily grit their teeth as they buy a HD DVD or Blu-Ray for $30 in a B&M store, but it is much harder to make a $100 purchase.

Its not like the Blu-Ray version is doing bad, it was in the top 10 for a few weeks and has remained in the top 20 for as long as Casino Royale. If a bunch of people were buying the HD DVD version thinking it would work with their DVD players, then there would obviously be a large influx of returns to Amazon, and the quanitity in stock doesn't indicate that is the scenario. However that being said there are a few posts on the message board on the Planet Earth HD DVD page at Amazon with people asking if the HD DVD version of Planet Earth works in normal DVD players, so there has most likely been some accidental orders.

I have also seen Planet Earth being demoed @ Fry's, so maybe that is causing people to pick up HD DVD players and Planet Earth. If someone sees Planet Earth is available on HD DVD and Blu-Ray, then they see the $399 HD DVD player and the $699 Blu-Ray player, which high definition player is most likely to get purchased?

If you see the attach rates, looks like people aren't even buying their first disc !


What if PS3 owners want it more for games, got a free-bee and aren't gonna move til titles they want more or prices they like happen?

Likewise HD DVD owners got a lot of free-bees and may just be doing the upconversion thing til movies they want more at prices that appeal more are the norm?

Software is where you really get screwed if your format dies.

2. This is a unique title. People buying Planet Earth will not only get it for the documentary aspect but also for the "WOW" factor. They know it's nature footage and will look great.And as I've mentioned before and somebody else just mentioned, a title like this is likely to sell more of the inexpensive players. I would say something similar about "The Matrix" if it was going to be released on both formats simultaneously, but the effect is probably even bigger with an HD documentary like this because people who want it in HD aren't necessarily as concerned about movies as those who want things like "The Matrix" in HD.

As far as sales, from the eproductwars.com site, it looks like in a 72 hour period ending earlier today (last time I checked) Amazon had sold about 900 copies on HD DVD (of course an average of about 300 per day). Back further than that things got a little more murky as it looks like stock came in. If those aren't people messing up, this seems like somewhat of a sleeper title to still be selling that many.

--Darin

What if PS3 owners want it more for games, got a free-bee and aren't gonna move til titles they want more or prices they like happen?

Likewise HD DVD owners got a lot of free-bees and may just be doing the upconversion thing til movies they want more at prices that appeal more are the norm?

Software is where you really get screwed if your format dies.

Very true, I got 10 free discs with my XE1, I now have no need or inclination to buy any HD DVDs as I got most of the ones I wanted for free (off the shelf, any disc - gotta love those 'one time offers' that salesman make!).

I've only bought a couple of HD DVDs for my 2 players, but rented 30+

If you see the attach rates, looks like people aren't even buying their first disc !

As been stated, some in the HD DVD camp have gotten alot of disc for free. No need to buy more movies for them for a while.

Most in the PS3 camp dont buy movies at all. They are gamers and dont spend 30$ on movies they already have on DVD.

I think its to early to tell. How this will fold in the near future.

And as I've mentioned before and somebody else just mentioned, a title like this is likely to sell more of the inexpensive players. I would say something similar about "The Matrix" if it was going to be released on both formats simultaneously, but the effect is probably even bigger with an HD documentary like this because people who want it in HD aren't necessarily as concerned about movies as those who want things like "The Matrix" in HD.

As far as sales, from the eproductwars.com site, it looks like in a 72 hour period ending earlier today (last time I checked) Amazon had sold about 900 copies on HD DVD (of course an average of about 300 per day). Back further than that things got a little more murky as it looks like stock came in. If those aren't people messing up, this seems like somewhat of a sleeper title to still be selling that many.

--Darin

I've been taking notes on the inventory levels at different ranks at Amazon for several weeks (I'll continue to get more numbers and look for changes as the seasons changes). If you note down numbers for a few titles at different rankings a few times a day it's easy to get a fell for how much different rankings normally sell.

And yes I know that there is no real way to determine any Nielsen numbers from this since some titles sell very differently on Amazon. But it's fun ...

Planet Earth has been selling between 2-300 copies on HD DVD a day since it came out. It has also held pretty much the same ranking for 30 days which means it has already on Amazon alone sold some 6-9000 copies on HD DVD and maybe 4-6000 on Blu Ray.

Right now it is back up to number 4 for HD DVD (but down to 15 for Blu Ray) which is tieing the highest ranking it (or any other title) has had so far. Rank 15 is normally around half the copies sold compared to 5.

There are some 25K new PS3 owners every week. May be 2 or 3K BD CE player owners. And some 10K new HD DVD player owners (Tosh + the add on).

Apart from these, there are 1.3M existing PS3 owners, 80K BD CE player owners and 250K HD DVD player owners.


Where are you getting these numbers? Particularly the 10k new HDDVD per week. And if this is from a reputable source, any idea of the breakdown between add-on and Tosh standalones? My impression was that add-on sales have slowed down considerably, but don't know if that's accurate or not.

The lowest number I've seen for the PS3 by month is 127,000, which would be just under 32k per week. Since launch, the average per week is something like 65k per week.

Didn't NPD have standalones at 52-48% as of 2/1/07? What portion of that 170k disparity is coming from the add-on (and have we seen any numbers since the ~92k?)?

Quick explanation of the numbers.

There are some 25K new PS3 owners every week. May be 2 or 3K BD CE player owners. And some 10K new HD DVD player owners (Tosh + the add on).

25K per week is the low (minimum) number from vgchartz weekly numbers for PS3. Tosh was said to be selling 15 to 20K per month before the Apr price drop. After Apr price drop the numbers are supposed to be better. Add-on is said to be selling about the same (figures from NPD quoted in various paces). That makes it about 40K per month or 10K per week. 2 to 3K BD CE players comes from the claim by Tosh that they are seeling 4 times that of BD CE players.

Apart from these, there are 1.3M existing PS3 owners, 80K BD CE player owners and 250K HD DVD player owners.

1.3M is ofcourse from NPD/Vgchartz. 80K is a figure I read sometimeback. 250K is from 100K for tosh players + 125K for the add-on + sales for month of April.

All these figures are rough estimates - but on the low (minimum) side.

Very true, I got 10 free discs with my XE1, I now have no need or inclination to buy any HD DVDs as I got most of the ones I wanted for free (off the shelf, any disc - gotta love those 'one time offers' that salesman make!).

Did the salesman scan it - will that be part of the videoscan sales (if you had been in the US).

We know that the Tosh MIR movies don't get counted. Not sure about the free movies that BB or CC is offering.

PS : Aren't you a student ? Students in UK must be rich to buy XE1 !

I think its to early to tell. How this will fold in the near future.

I hope so. The numbers for this week give me more faith in my last week's statement.

It looks to me - there is a loyal band of people in both BD and HD DVD buying titles week after week when well known day & date titles come out. They number probably 20 to 30K on BD and some 10 to 20K on HD.

Doesn't look like this group is increasing in streangth or that the base of non-loyalists is increasing. That is why we see almost flat sales with titles released being the only variable.

As been stated, some in the HD DVD camp have gotten alot of disc for free. No need to buy more movies for them for a while.

Most in the PS3 camp dont buy movies at all. They are gamers and dont spend 30$ on movies they already have on DVD.

I think its to early to tell. How this will fold in the near future.


Meh... I have 5 free on the way, but those don't help me or anyone on the day of purchase. I have bought 10 other movies already.

I've been taking notes on the inventory levels at different ranks at Amazon for several weeks (I'll continue to get more numbers and look for changes as the seasons changes). If you note down numbers for a few titles at different rankings a few times a day it's easy to get a fell for how much different rankings normally sell.If you go to eproductwars.com/dvd then the sales rank and history for a title, then "View more sales rank ..." you can click on the graph and put the mouse over different spots on the green graph to see the time and stock numbers for that time. That way you don't need to write them down ahead of time and can look for places where the stock jumps. Some of those make it hard to know what happened, so I look for places where the stock steadily decreases.

--Darin

I think the main reason it has remained so high is the price

$66 on Amazon compared to $99.99 in Best Buy and Circuit City. Obviously all Blu-Ray and HD DVD discs are more more expensive in B&M stores, but Planet Earth is so much cheaper on Amazon it just makes sense to purchase it online. People can easily grit their teeth as they buy a HD DVD or Blu-Ray for $30 in a B&M store, but it is much harder to make a $100 purchase.

Its not like the Blu-Ray version is doing bad, it was in the top 10 for a few weeks and has remained in the top 20 for as long as Casino Royale. If a bunch of people were buying the HD DVD version thinking it would work with their DVD players, then there would obviously be a large influx of returns to Amazon, and the quanitity in stock doesn't indicate that is the scenario. However that being said there are a few posts on the message board on the Planet Earth HD DVD page at Amazon with people asking if the HD DVD version of Planet Earth works in normal DVD players, so there has most likely been some accidental orders.

I have also seen Planet Earth being demoed @ Fry's, so maybe that is causing people to pick up HD DVD players and Planet Earth. If someone sees Planet Earth is available on HD DVD and Blu-Ray, then they see the $399 HD DVD player and the $699 Blu-Ray player, which high definition player is most likely to get purchased?

If its like my Fry's where the available amount of titles is over 2 : 1 in favor of BD.

Probably neither.

I love the HD-DVD displays at Fry's. One is demoing SD Spiderman, and the other tells you there are over 200 available titles to purchase in that store, when in reality, there is barely 75.

Meh... I have 5 free on the way, but those don't help me or anyone on the day of purchase. I have bought 10 other movies already.

I've bought about 12, and have yet t get my free-bees (2 of which I could give a rip about). So I buy, but now I'm caught up.

As I said before there are about 20 SDs I really want, but when they are coming out at 125-175 per week, the odds are a lot better.

Given the propensity for New titles to be the real market-movers versus catalog titles, I don't believe May 22 is as important a date as many others are thinking. We'll probably see some (temporary) weekly growth, but keep in mind POTC and Matrix are catalog titles, and Matrix will probably be hit by the 3-in-one price tag issue we saw with PE.

The real climactic battle will be this Fall, when all this summer's blockbusters hit the slate as New releases. This other stuff is mostly PR ammo.

I don't agree with you, there is a large crowd that is ready to buy Matrix at any price. Matrix will peak the sales. Matrix is also one of the rare titles capable of selling players on its own.

There are some 25K new PS3 owners every week. May be 2 or 3K BD CE player owners. And some 10K new HD DVD player owners (Tosh + the add on).

Apart from these, there are 1.3M existing PS3 owners, 80K BD CE player owners and 250K HD DVD player owners.

I'd expect more sales than what we are seeing with even these many potential buyers. For eg. HD DVD owners aren't even buying one HD DVD a month (let alone an annualized attach rate of 28). PS3 owners aren't buying a BD movie even once in 6 months (on the average).

Quick explanation of the numbers.

25K per week is the low (minimum) number from vgchartz weekly numbers for PS3. Tosh was said to be selling 15 to 20K per month before the Apr price drop. After Apr price drop the numbers are supposed to be better. Add-on is said to be selling about the same (figures from NPD quoted in various paces). That makes it about 40K per month or 10K per week. 2 to 3K BD CE players comes from the claim by Tosh that they are seeling 4 times that of BD CE players.

1.3M is ofcourse from NPD/Vgchartz. 80K is a figure I read sometimeback. 250K is from 100K for tosh players + 125K for the add-on + sales for month of April.

All these figures are rough estimates - but on the low (minimum) side.I agree with Natarajs figures for estimates with those on the low side.

Unisxrd, those were not Feb NPD numbers. Toshiba players have been outselling standalone players well over 2:1 all this year with April having dramatically increased sales. April Toshiba sales will be well over 40,000 units sold to consumers. The April price drops and intro of the 1080p HD A20 has probably increased sales of all three NA Toshiba HD DVD player models.

There really has been no equal price drop for the Blu-ray players.

The 100,000 Toshiba NPD standalone player announcement was probably based on Feb 07 NPD numbers. Toshiba has shipped over 250,000 HD DVD players worldwide as of mid April. Not yet NPD tracked as sold to consumers. Add 30,000 and 40,000 or more sales for March and April to get Toshiba's NA sold numbers.

HD DVD sales were minimum of 40,000 sold for April according to several established sources of mine and Robert DTV Tivo Dealer from VE. Thats seems very plausible to me based on the circumstances. Another retailer I know says that Toshiba told him over 40,000 HD DVD units were sold in April and that HD XA2 sales were so strong that additional production runs were being made.

If you go to eproductwars.com/dvd then the sales rank and history for a title, then "View more sales rank ..." you can click on the graph and put the mouse over different spots on the green graph to see the time and stock numbers for that time. That way you don't need to write them down ahead of time and can look for places where the stock jumps. Some of those make it hard to know what happened, so I look for places where the stock steadily decreases.

--Darin

I know, and I often use that feature to collect the info when I don't have time to do it "live". However I've seen sites come and go for many years and if a site collecting this data goes down the next one will most likely not be able to get historical info. Hence the "need" to note down numbers myself.

Besides the above never seems to work for unreleased titles.

Yeah I sometimes have to much time on my hands.

Btw, using Amazon ranks I now estimate that the Pirates movies have at least caught up with Matrix preorders and since they have higher rankings should pull ahead. Of course it is also likely that Pirates will do better in stores. Unless there is a huge swing in preorders the last week I would guess that if Pirates are at say 100 and 90% then Matrix will be at 60 and 50% in Nielsen numbers.

Also, neither the Pirates nor the Matrix movies are breaking any sales records. Taking into account that boxes (and HD DVD) probably sell better than average on Amazon and more recent titles (and Blu Ray) in general sell worse. I would estimate that none of the titles will go over 20.000 first week and the Matrix boxes will have a hard time get over 20.000 combined on Nielsen. Of course we will probably not get any numbers to determine that for sure.

Btw, using Amazon ranks I now estimate that the Pirates movies have at least caught up with Matrix preorders and since they have higher rankings should pull ahead.Do you think the Pirates moves were ever really behind for preorders? They were up for preorder way before the Matrix movies, so would have banked some before the Matrix movies went up. It is possible that the first weeks worth of preorders for the Matrix movies put them ahead, but even with their higher ranks for a few days after they went up for preorder I'm not sure if they ever caught up for total preorders on Amazon.

--Darin

Unisxrd, those were not Feb NPD numbers.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

FEB. 2 | Despite price differences, high-definition stand-alone Blu-ray and HD DVD players are neck-and-neck in sales, according to the NPD Group.

Between April and December, 48% of high-def stand-alones sold were Blu-ray and the remaining 52% were HD DVD. Blu-ray stand-alones, including models by Sony, Samsung, Philips and Pioneer, are priced at about $1,000 and up. In contrast, certain Toshiba HD DVD models can be found for about $500.

One possible contributing factor to the results is that retailers have noted tight Toshiba inventory relative to the flusher availability of stand-alone Blu-ray players.

Also, there are more Blu-ray manufacturers than HD DVD manufacturers releasing stand-alone players.

NPD’s data excludes sales of high-def gaming devices, the Blu-ray-compatible PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360’s HD DVD drive. NPD plans to update this information on a quarterly basis.




Toshiba players have been outselling standalone players well over 2:1 all this year with April having dramactically increased sales.

Do you have a source that can be reviewed for the hard numbers that pertain to this thread, or are such claims better left to a rumors thread?

Do you have a source that can be reviewed for the hard numbers that pertain to this thread, or are such claims better left to a rumors thread?

If you have access to CED you can see many of these numbers ;)

Does that mean your answer is a rumor thread? :D

Do you think the Pirates moves were ever really behind for preorders? They were up for preorder way before the Matrix movies, so would have banked some before the Matrix movies went up. It is possible that the first weeks worth of preorders for the Matrix movies put them ahead, but even with their higher ranks for a few days after they went up for preorder I'm not sure if they ever caught up for total preorders on Amazon.

--Darin

Yes I do think Matrix was ahead with stronger first weeks of preorders. Those ranks make up for alot of days with lower ranks later for both franchises. But no, one can't be sure. This isn't exact enough even to be sure of that. We will get relative numbers from Nielsen and with PE numbers seemingly holding steady it will be possible to get fairly good guesses at total numbers sold first week. Should be interesting.

Remember that The Matrix has two boxsets of the three movies. No HD DVD owner is going to order both boxsets, so that splits the HD DVD user base with 1/2 going to the Ultimate Collection and 1/2 going for the Complete Trilogy, hence the lower sales ranks on amazon.

Pirates on the other hand does not split the Blu-Ray user base. If someone orders Pirates 1 they are likely to order Pirates 2. There is no split in the user base so both should be much high in the sales ranks, as they currently are. We'll have to wait for the Nielsen numbers to see which does better, it is really a toss up.

Data reported on 2/2 and only covering thru Dec of last year (if that) is really pretty useless.

Yes I do think Matrix was ahead with stronger first weeks of preorders. Those ranks make up for alot of days with lower ranks later for both franchises.Not sure if my question really got through. It was whether you think the first few days or the first week of the preorders for the Matrix put it ahead of what was already weeks worth of preorders for Pirates (since it went up for preorder way before the Matrix sets). Put another way, if 500 copies of the Matrix were ordered its first week and the Pirates movies had averaged 150 per week up until then, the Pirates movies still would have had more preorders after the first week for the Matrix movies.

--Darin

They seem quite useful to me. If HDDVD could only lead by 4 percentage points when they had a $500 / 50% advantage in price, how are they supposed to be doing better when that advantage is half that in real dollar amounts?

Data reported on 2/2 and only covering thru Dec of last year (if that) is really pretty useless.

True. I think there was a spurt in BD CE player sales in Nov and Dec - along with the tight supply of Tosh players.

question. sorry if this was covered in this thread already but i haven't seen it.

everybody keeps comparing pirates to the matrix using amazon rankings. do these neilson video scan ratios include purchases made form warner home video. yall remember that 20% off sale they had with free shipping not to long ago and their price ended of being cheaper than amazon's prices. many people went with them instead.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

FEB. 2 | Despite price differences, high-definition stand-alone Blu-ray and HD DVD players are neck-and-neck in sales, according to the NPD Group.

Between April and December, 48% of high-def stand-alones sold were Blu-ray and the remaining 52% were HD DVD. Blu-ray stand-alones, including models by Sony, Samsung, Philips and Pioneer, are priced at about $1,000 and up. In contrast, certain Toshiba HD DVD models can be found for about $500.

One possible contributing factor to the results is that retailers have noted tight Toshiba inventory relative to the flusher availability of stand-alone Blu-ray players.

Also, there are more Blu-ray manufacturers than HD DVD manufacturers releasing stand-alone players.

NPD’s data excludes sales of high-def gaming devices, the Blu-ray-compatible PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360’s HD DVD drive. NPD plans to update this information on a quarterly basis.

Do you have a source that can be reviewed for the hard numbers that pertain to this thread, or are such claims better left to a rumors thread? This discussion has been done before. I read that article in the same way, although I believe it incorrrectly read the NPD end of year numbers that were released at CES. But even if you don't believe me, that Feb article is history.

Toshiba has since given numbers from NPD that showed HD DVD standalones were outselling Blu-ray by a sunstantial basis this year. That was based on EOM Feb (or later) NPD numbers.

True. I think there was a spurt in BD CE player sales in Nov and Dec - along with the tight supply of Tosh players. Its just like citing HD DVD player margins before Oct 2006 before when the first gen Samsung player was the only Blu-ray option. Useful history for someone writing a book on the HD format war but kinda out of date for future projections.

Not sure if my question really got through. It was whether you think the first few days or the first week of the preorders for the Matrix put it ahead of what was already weeks worth of preorders for Pirates (since it went up for preorder way before the Matrix sets). Put another way, if 500 copies of the Matrix were ordered its first week and the Pirates movies had averaged 150 per week up until then, the Pirates movies still would have had more preorders after the first week for the Matrix movies.

--Darin

I understood you fine. Obviously (or not so I guess) with later I meant in both cases relative to their preorders. So yes, despite Pirates having a longer timespan as preorders most of that time was spent low enough not to make much of a difference so I think Matrix made up for it. Just as Pirates lately has gone high enough again to make more of a difference. I don't have frequent enough numbers from march to know for sure but then not much is for sure with those ranks are they? It will be interesting to see how high both franchises can go this week.

On a related note I wager that Pirates will do 8-10 times on Nielsen what it sells on Amazon the first week and Matrix will do 3-4 times. In total revenue it should be close.

question. sorry if this was covered in this thread already but i haven't seen it.

everybody keeps comparing pirates to the matrix using amazon rankings. do these neilson video scan ratios include purchases made form warner home video. yall remember that 20% off sale they had with free shipping not to long ago and their price ended of being cheaper than amazon's prices. many people went with them instead.

Nobody knows but considering that Warner would want to have their sales counted I would say yes.

On a similar note. Although there are reports all the time of BB or other major chains breaking street dates this is normally out of ignorance and not on purpose. They sell everything through a scanner and a huge number of units sold before street dates would get a reaction. There are a few smaller (than Amazon at least) webstores that routinely break street dates. I'm not gonna name them here but they seem to have a tendency of HD DVD leading their own statistics. Somehow counting them would obviously not change the big picture but I'm pretty sure from dealing with just one of them that they sell a couple of thousand HD DVDs a month (and obviously Blu Rays as well although a few less)

We know that the Tosh MIR movies don't get counted. Not sure about the free movies that BB or CC is offering.

yes store sales count. The BB and CC specials are in those numbers you see for HD DVD

This discussion has been done before. I read that article in the same way, although I believe it incorrrectly read the NPD end of year numbers that were released at CES. But even if you don't believe me, that Feb article is history.

Toshiba has since given numbers from NPD that showed HD DVD standalones were outselling Blu-ray by a sunstantial basis this year. That was based on EOM Feb (or later) NPD numbers.

when figures surface confirming this, can we agree that PS3 single handedly 'killed-off' sales of BD standalone players before Toshiba decreases player prices which further dampened the sales figure?

yes store sales count. The BB and CC specials are in those numbers you see for HD DVD

You don't know that for a fact. The free movies from BB and CC may not be counted, depending on how they are wrang up, and then also depending if CC or BB filter out the freebies before reporting to Nielsen.

You don't know that for a fact. The free movies from BB and CC may not be counted, depending on how they are wrang up, and then also depending if CC or BB filter out the freebies before reporting to Nielsen.

POS data is useless if you are allowed to manipulate it. stores don't get to choose what they send. If they agreed to movies then it is going there. As for ringing it in, how else would they keep track of inventory?

You don't know that for a fact. The free movies from BB and CC may not be counted, depending on how they are wrang up, and then also depending if CC or BB filter out the freebies before reporting to Nielsen.

I've seen reports that they were on the receits both at 0.01 dollar each and that the price of the player was adjusted to allow for the software titles at regular price.

I'm on the HD DVD side at the moment and I have no doubt those were counted.

The free disks mailed to you from Toshiba are very unlikely to be counted though. So yeah, even say 100.000 players times 5 disks equals quite a few disks at this time.

This discussion has been done before. I read that article in the same way, although I believe it incorrrectly read the NPD end of year numbers that were released at CES. But even if you don't believe me, that Feb article is history.

Toshiba has since given numbers from NPD that showed HD DVD standalones were outselling Blu-ray by a sunstantial basis this year. That was based on EOM Feb (or later) NPD numbers.

Kosty, as far as I read what you posted, you don't have any HARD evidence of HD DVD standalones outselling Blu-ray standalones by 2:1 or 4:1 or any other number....

Marek

Nor is there any HARD evidence of BD standalone sales!

Kosty, as far as I read what you posted, you don't have any HARD evidence of HD DVD standalones outselling Blu-ray standalones by 2:1 or 4:1 or any other number....

Tosh says they are outselling BD players by 4:1. Now is that hard evidence ? It is for you to decide. No different from Sony's claim of 100K CR shipped. Would you convict someone in court with that evidence - probably not. It is a good starting point when calculating numbers ? I think so. YMMV.

Tosh says they are outselling BD players by 4:1.

Well there's an objective source! :rolleyes: Like I said, this claim belongs in a rumor thread rather than one allegedly about hard numbers. :D

The lowest number I've seen for the PS3 by month is 127,000, which would be just under 32k per week. Since launch, the average per week is something like 65k per week.

127k/32k per week was February, then March was 130k/26k per week. So after dropping by half in January and again in February, they fell by 19% in March. Overall average per week for 2007 is 38k. I expect to see the April numbers down again, probably in the 90k/22k per week range. It will almost definitely be under 100k, but we'll know for sure in a few days.

Tosh says they are outselling BD players by 4:1. Now is that hard evidence ? It is for you to decide. No different from Sony's claim of 100K CR shipped. Would you convict someone in court with that evidence - probably not. It is a good starting point when calculating numbers ? I think so. YMMV.Well there's an objective source! Like I said, this claim belongs in a rumor thread rather than one allegedly about hard numbers. Toshiba cited NPD numbers as the source of their claim. NPD is as unbiased as you can get. Those are based on as hard of numbers as N/V.

But it can be obviously selective just as Sony releasing Nielson/Videoscan numbers thru March 18th 2007, which showed Blu-ray disc sales at their best.

It could certainly be a case of using a unbiased source of numbers with a selective time frame to majke your side look better. But all accounts show HD DVD standalone sales accelerating.

Sony released a full report. Toshiba's undocumented and unsubstantiated claims are rumor until corroborated by NPD themselves or at least some presented evidence.

"All accounts" claimed a dominating lead in standalones last year, too, but we know it just wasn't so. If it's anything comparable, they maybe have a whopping 5 or 6% lead in standalones now. :eek: :o

Nor is there any HARD evidence of BD standalone sales!

Its probably because BR standalone sales are non-existant. Blu-Ray would probably be doing better if it was just the PS3 and the PS3 alone.

Talking about standalone sales, some hard numbers have been published for Europe through March: http://www.cinemotion.biz/informacion.php?iinfo=148

Its probably because BR standalone sales are non-existant. Blu-Ray would probably be doing better if it was just the PS3 and the PS3 alone.

non-existant ? so HD DVD sales of standalones 52% versus 48% sales of BD standalones in january report is what ? so you really thing, people did not bought any blu-ray standalone player from january right ? sureeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

M.

non-existant ? so HD DVD sales of standalones 52% versus 48% sales of BD standalones in january report is what ? so you really thing, people did not bought any blu-ray standalone player from january right ? sureeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

M.

3 million PS3s and how many standalones? Give me a link to a statistic.

Well there's an objective source! :rolleyes: Like I said, this claim belongs in a rumor thread rather than one allegedly about hard numbers. :D

Go back and take a look through out this thread where we have used "non-objective" sources to get out initial Jan numbers and things like that. We have used several times sources ranging from Sony, Disney to some numbers execs from individual companies discussed in news stories(like Tosh or Warner or other studios).

Don't try to act as if the thread didn't exist before we got Videoscan numbers from Sony.

Talking about standalone sales, some hard numbers have been published for Europe through March: http://www.cinemotion.biz/informacion.php?iinfo=148

Those are some awful numbers. Good thing the PS3 plays BDs and has sold nearly 1m in Europe.

3 million PS3s and how many standalones? Give me a link to a statistic.

When did sony sell 3 million PS3s in the US? Can you link me to a statistic? Since we on the forum are discussing US numbers, since i dont think a PS3 owner from afganistan is changing the Amazon and Neilson #s we all love to use. Thanks in advanced for any link you can come up with!

Don't try to act as if the thread didn't exist before we got Videoscan numbers from Sony.

No this thread exists because of videoscan numbers, not the numbers somebody came up with out of their ouija board that can't be verified. Until they're substantiated, these rumored sales numbers are just that: rumor

When did sony sell 3 million PS3s in the US? Can you link me to a statistic? Since we on the forum are discussing US numbers, since i dont think a PS3 owner from afganistan is changing the Amazon and Neilson #s we all love to use. Thanks in advanced for any link you can come up with!


Since when did I say

"In the US"

Since you are dicussing words which I allegedly said I assume you can link me to that quote. Thanks in advance for any link you come up with!

As for the 3 million PS3s

http://www.vgchartz.com/

0.91 million Japan
1.42 million US
0.96 million 'others' (European Nations, Australia, etc)

Total sold >3 million

I'll be waiting for the link where you I said 3 million were sold in the US. The PS3 hasn't done that good so good luck ;)

Since when did I say

"In the US"

NPD's 2/1/07 reported 52-48% sales of standalones, which you quoted in your reply, was for the US. ;)

NPD's 2/1/07 reported 52-48% sales of standalones, which you quoted in your reply, was for the US. ;)

There was an argument - might even be somewhere in this thread - that the 52:48 standalone figure was for $ value and not units. If this is true then with BD being almost double the price of HD DVD (roughly) the unit sales ratio may be closer to 60:40 (maybe even 70:30).

I think this is probably true as the Blu-ray camp often touts software figures and all player stats (inc. PS3) but rarely boasts about standalone sales - if it was 52:48 in units sales at the end of 2006 then Blu-ray should also have passed the 100K standalone mark by now. Has it been reported?

My view is that the standalone market is currently Blu-ray's achilles heel and they need to work hard to get those players moving - right now!

The good news is that there is a new Panasonic player out with a 5-free movie deal and Sony have a lower priced player coming out soon as well. If both these models can hit the $499 mark at the cash register then this will provide a boost for BD player sales.

Ultimately Blu-ray cannot live by the PS3 alone (but it's nice to have around).

I agree. I just don't think the imperative is that dire on standalones... at least any more dire in that the cheaper G2 BD standalones already on the way should be rushed. I really doubt I'll see the need to replace my PS3 with one, though. Maybe a G3, depending on feature/price. We're still in the formative stages of these formats, though. I don't see players on either side dipping belong $199 until G3/2008-2009, at which point HDTV penetration will be greater, too.

NPD's 2/1/07 reported 52-48% sales of standalones, which you quoted in your reply, was for the US. ;)

???

So are you going to provide a link to where I said 3 million PS3s in the US, you are the 3rd Blu-Ray user to take one statement I said and apply it to another situation.

So you can provide a link to where I said that, or you can offer an apology. All apologies are taken over PM or on the message board. Cash and checks are also accepted.

I just don't think the imperative is that dire on standalones...
It is dire. Format success depends on hundreds of millions of players. PS3 is not even in that league or on the radar. If BD is depending on the PS3 it has already lost.

No this thread exists because of videoscan numbers, not the numbers somebody came up with out of their ouija board that can't be verified. Until they're substantiated, these rumored sales numbers are just that: rumor

Then why are you asking for NPD numbers. Videoscan doesn't give hardware numbers. End of story. Don't read these posts.

BTW, don't get confused between rumor and claim. What we have is a Tosh claim - just like we have used Sony's or Disney's claim in the past. Show me when you said the same thing when Sony's or Disney's numbers (or others) was used in this thread. Otherwise it is obvious you are complaining because you don't like the numbers - not because of its sourcing.

Infact the numbers we are using of videoscan are actually Sony's claim of them being videoscan numbers.

This is the last I'm replying to this useless topic. I've made clear where the numbers are from - take it or leave it.

Tosh says they are outselling BD players by 4:1. Now is that hard evidence ? It is for you to decide. No different from Sony's claim of 100K CR shipped.

there is one Big difference. Sony obviously knows exactly how many copies of their movie has shoipped. Toshiba does not know how many BD players sold

Talking about standalone sales, some hard numbers have been published for Europe through March:

Grubert: are there only those two in Europe?

How about the Sony and Pioneer?

Toshiba is using a third party serive in all likelihood. They can't just be making up such claims since they can be refuted....

Going by Gruberts source, it's impressive that Toshiba would capture 75% of the standalone market, while all other competitors ('BD) would have 25% market share. Having the 1 million PS3 is critical to keep the format competitive for awhile. Given that there are 8K HD DVD players competing with 1M PS3 Players, it's amazing that disk sales are as close as they are! Wow! How much is it costing the BDA to sell a disk in Europe? Must be terrible. I didn't think the situation would be that bad. Looks like Europe has only 500K fewer PS3 players than the US, and HD DVD player sales are far lower in Europe than the US, yet disk sales are competitive (again, I am just going by what I have seen in threads here). So, how does the BDA expect to make money on this ?

Nataraj: just curious, where is the article with Toshiba claiming 4:1? (not doubting just don't remember seeing it.

There was an argument - might even be somewhere in this thread - that the 52:48 standalone figure was for $ value and not units.

the problem with that argument is that NPD gives unit sales.

the problem with that argument is that NPD gives unit sales.

Which would mean that there must be now over 100,000 Blu-ray standalone players sold, yes?

Just wondered where the press release was that announced that landmark.

As a Blu-ray supporter I think it would be great if it had been 52:48 in unit sales at the end of December because it means that everytime the HD DVD camp made a claim on standalone sales we would know that the Blu-ray figure was more or less matching it.

But how does 52:48 fit in with Toshiba's claim of 80:20? Does that include the X-Box add-on?

We need those updated NPD numbers. I had hoped we might have numbers for both sides for Q1 2007 by now.

Watching this thread is like watching sea monkeys. Fascinating for a short period of time, but then you loose interest.

Okay, time to predict results for the week ending May 13:

Blu-ray
New releases: Catch and Release
Catalog releases: Dirty Dancing, Donnie Brasco, Revenge

HD DVD
New releases: none
Catalog releases: none

As before: BD/HD percentage for the week, and three top-selling hidef titles.

67:33

1. PE HD DVD
2. DB
3. PE BD

Nataraj: just curious, where is the article with Toshiba claiming 4:1?

CED.

BTW, CEA released figures about the players. Unfortunately they combines HiDef player figures with DVD players.

Here is what I think.

Next week's releases are all BD. Given with rating from RottonTomatoes and the Box Office.

05/08 Catch and Release New 22% 15M
Dirty Dancing Catalog 65% 63M
Donnie Brasco Catalog 85% 42M
Revenge Catalog 38% 15M

Given that the New release is not a blockbuster, I expect PE and N@TM to continue to top. BD ratio may increase a bit compared to HD, but not by much. The total numbers will probably go down.

I say 64/36 again.

1. Planet Earth BD
2. Dreamgirls BD
3. Planet Earth HD

My guess: 59/41.

1. Planet Earth HD
2. Planet Earth BD
3. Dreamgirls BD

My guess 68/32
1. Planet Earth HD
2. Planet Earth BD
3. NATM BD

My guess..

71/29 BD>HD-DVD

the problem with that argument is that NPD gives unit sales. Not true. Unit sales is only one of the NPD data points collected.

Its the one usually released unless someone is trying to use misdirection.

61 % 39$ BD over HD DVD

My guess 65/35
1. Planet Earth BD
2. NATM BD
3. Planet Earth HDDVD

I'm going 65/35

1. Planet Earth BD
2. Planet Earth HD
3. Dreamgirls BD

CED.

BTW, CEA released figures about the players. Unfortunately they combines HiDef player figures with DVD players.


thanks. did you read the article? (since CED ius not available) what exactly did it say?

Which would mean that there must be now over 100,000 Blu-ray standalone players sold, yes?

no idea

Just wondered where the press release was that announced that landmark.


what PR are you expecting. Unlike HD DVD with BD there are several manufacturers.
Toshiba told us when they reached 20k shipped, 50k, shipped and when they reached 100k. On BD we never got any numbers. THere is just no one to give them because there are many companies.


As a Blu-ray supporter I think it would be great if it had been 52:48 in unit sales at the end of December because it means that every time the HD DVD camp made a claim on standalone sales we would know that the Blu-ray figure was more or less matching it.

Not at all. Maybe HD DVD is selling relatively much better this year. Maybe many realized the PS3 is one of the best BD players and are getting it instead of one of the others.


But how does 52:48 fit in with Toshiba's claim of 80:20? Does that include the X-Box add-on?


1) we don’t know what the 4:1 means. Except for a few posts here (and, no I am not questioning the integrity of people re-…-reporting it) no one knows what those two numbers are related to

2) they are distanced in time of many months.

65/35 Bd

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10664

On the high-def disc front, 62% of the discs purchased by consumers the week ended May 13 were Blu-ray, while 38% were HD DVD. Warner’s Planet Earth was the top seller on all three high-def disc charts: Blu-ray, HD DVD and blended. Because I Said So was one of the few new Universal Studios releases to come out only on DVD and not in HD DVD.

Kosty wins again!

no idea

what PR are you expecting. Unlike HD DVD with BD there are several manufacturers.
Toshiba told us when they reached 20k shipped, 50k, shipped and when they reached 100k. On BD we never got any numbers. THere is just no one to give them because there are many companies.

I thought it was 100K sold to consumers, not shipped?

Anyway, if a person accepts the 52:48 player ratio reported at the end of 2006 as unit sales, then when HD DVD gets to 100,000 that person must accept that Blu-ray standalone sales won't be far behind. If the same ratio is maintained 100,000 HD DVD players sold means that 92,000 Blu-ray standalones have been sold.

Personally, I have no more idea of the truth than you do. I just find it surprising that Blu-ray do not make more of their virtual parity on standalone player sales - if that is indeed the case.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10664



Kosty wins again!

Kosty demands the box of Kitkat that you promised him !! Now where is it?

On the high-def disc front, 62% of the discs purchased by consumers the week ended May 13 were Blu-ray, while 38% were HD DVD
Kosty wins again!

I'm almost sure the YTD ratio will not show any change. There goes our effort at getting good estimates for the week. I predict very similar numbers to last weeks.

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/1527/ratiosyb4.png (http://imageshack.us)

Are the WB online movies included? A lot of HD-DVD folks order there matrix movies through there with the stacked coupons.... I'm just curious what that will mean for the May 22nd numbers.

Are the WB online movies included? A lot of HD-DVD folks order there matrix movies through there with the stacked coupons.... I'm just curious what that will mean for the May 22nd numbers.

I doubt there are any internet shops/online movies included in the Nielsen charts.

I doubt there are any internet shops/online movies included in the Nielsen charts.

Big shops like Amazon are included. There was a slightly dated list someone posted a while back.

IIRC, generally for a retailer to get the Nielsen data - they need to send data as well.

I actually think that the current ratio of 60:40 is about 'normal' and that times where BD has sold at higher ratios (or HD DVD for that matter) has been due to specific titles.

As Grubert noted, this is the ratio that we are seeing on 'slow weeks' with catalogue titles released to both formats roughly equally... I think that these last two weeks are the best measure we have seen lately of the reality of the sales ratios...

I said this April 21.

With 60:40 last week, and 62:38 apparently this week - it seems that this still holds...

I wonder what will need to happen to move this in one direction or the other...?

The May 22 sales will be interesting to say the least, but I mean what it will take to change the ratio of ownership and long term sales, rather than temporary spikes one way or the other...

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10664

Kosty wins again! Me scares meself sometimes.

Two cookies in a row. Now all I need is a glass of warm milk.

I thought it was 100K sold to consumers, not shipped?

Anyway, if a person accepts the 52:48 player ratio reported at the end of 2006 as unit sales, then when HD DVD gets to 100,000 that person must accept that Blu-ray standalone sales won't be far behind. If the same ratio is maintained 100,000 HD DVD players sold means that 92,000 Blu-ray standalones have been sold.

Personally, I have no more idea of the truth than you do. I just find it surprising that Blu-ray do not make more of their virtual parity on standalone player sales - if that is indeed the case. I don't think that Blu-ray is at virtual parity with standalone player sales. HD DVD has been at much lower price points since the start of the year, and has had the April 1 MSRP price reductions and Circuit City and Best Buy promotions.

Much lower consumer prices have to result directly in greater sales volumes especially as you near $299 consumer price points.

However, I still don't see HD DVD lead in standalone player sales translating into a lead in HD movies sold. Blu-ray has still lead all this year in the N/V ratings. That means to me that the blockbuster strategy of Blu-ray is still leading the steady growth of installed standalone player base of HD DVD. But HD DVD has knocked down that 70/30 market share lead of Blu-ray to around 60/40 or less for the second quarter.

If HD DVD market share continues to bounce back and close, then the lower price player strategy may work sooner than later. Their $100 instant rebate will now reducr reduce the official price point form $399 MSRP to $299 after instant rebate, and the possibly of $200 off a Toshiba HD DVD and HDTV combo is starting to get to mass market levels for consumer adoption.

Right now its a race for of Blu-ray with more blockbuster content and format neutral content versus HD DVD with more players on the street with its mix of catalog and few exclusive hot releases and the neutral content. Its also a matter on how energized the BD can get those PS3 owners to be.

Big shops like Amazon are included. There was a slightly dated list someone posted a while back.

IIRC, generally for a retailer to get the Nielsen data - they need to send data as well. I think Warner online would supply data to get the data and to get more reported sales for its releases.

Big shops like Amazon are included. There was a slightly dated list someone posted a while back.

IIRC, generally for a retailer to get the Nielsen data - they need to send data as well.

A retailer getting data has nothing to do with sending data. It has everything to do with paying for it. Even if Warner sends data they have to pay for it. As do everyone else. Anyone who is not sending data can also pay for and get it.

But yeah, very likely both Amazon and Warner online is included.

Anyone who is not sending data can also pay for and get it.

This is the part I'm not sure about. IIRC, I read somewhere that you need to send data in order to subscribe (if you are a retailer). This is also one of the reasons why Walmart dropped out of all these data collection - they thought they were helping these agencies and other retailers more than the value they were getting.

Think about it. Why would anyone send data ?

Discount, maybe? Certainly not altruism. :p

The lowest number I've seen for the PS3 by month is 127,000, which would be just under 32k per week. Since launch, the average per week is something like 65k per week.

NPD numbers for April are horrific for PS3. About 20K a week. Worse than what vgchartz had predicted.

DS - 471k

WII - 360k

PS2 - 194k

PSP - 183k

360 - 174k

GBA - 84k

PS3 - 82k

NPD numbers for April are horrific for PS3. About 20K a week. Worse than what vgchartz had predicted.

People either waiting for more games or the rumored price cut or both. Sony need to act to revive sales again.

Bad numbers, but not surprising since nothing came out. Looking at what was shown at Gamer's Day, this fall should show a bunch of must own titles hitting the streets, just in time for the holiday season. A price drop sure would help at that point of time as well...if they do it.

I am always amazed at how people view their respective formats. The PS3 has pretty consistently dropped in monthly sales volume after the initial surge. And every month someone says the PS3 is doing ok considering that nothing was released. Now the answer is, let us wait until Fall, and the games will come and then people will by. So, essentially Sony has to suffer through 4 more months of poor sales, before they can hope to see an uptick?

By the way, by the BD braintrusts own logic, doesnt this mean the 360 is whipping, stomping and destroying the PS3, given the pretty consistent 2:1 sales ratio. :D

By the way, by the BD braintrusts own logic, doesnt this mean the 360 is whipping, stomping and destroying the PS3, given the pretty consistent 2:1 sales ratio. :D

I think that is the case given any kind of logic...

These are possibly the same arguments used by Universal, saying that HD DVD got severely beaten by BD earlier in the year due to a lack of new titles on HD DVD.

If your format is being outsold by 2:1, you are losing the game... doesn't matter which game it is.

By these same definitions the 360 is losing to the older PS2 and the PSP. So I guess we shouldn't cry too much of a river for Sony in any case...

What I really want to know is... who is buying all the Wiis! :)

NPD numbers for April are horrific for PS3. About 20K a week. Worse than what vgchartz had predicted.

From gamedaily.biz:

NPD: DS Sells More than 5 Times PS3 in April; Total Industry Sales Up 20%

Nintendo absolutely dominated the competition in yet another month, as the DS led by Pokemon Diamond and Pearl drove sales. The PS3 had its worst month with only 82,000 sold.
...
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter predicted PS3 sales in the U.S. for April would be around 100K. Unfortunately for Sony, they were even worse. PS3 sold a woeful 82,000 units for the month, while the Nintendo DS once again stole the show with 471K. PS3 sales were so low that Nintendo's ancient GBA sold more with 84K. The best selling console was Nintendo's Wii with 360K sold, while the Xbox 360 sold an unimpressive 174K. Sony's PS2 beat out the 360 (again) with 194K. The PSP sold 183K units and the GameCube (essentially on life support) sold just 13K.

Phloyd,

What I really want to know is... who is buying all the Wiis!

No, it isnt the Wii's it is the DS's.

I got one for my daughter a couple of months back. However, I had to wait 10 days and put in an order, because none of the stores around me had any in stock.

The same is true these days. If I go into BB or CC, they may have 1 DS unit, but that is on a lucky day.

Then last week, my daughter had saved her money and wanted the Pokemon Diamond game. 3 stores later, we found one.

Ninetendo has a real killer in the DS.

As to the 360, I bet sales are slow because alot of people are waiting for the new Elite unit.

Part of the reason I made the comments was that not too long ago posters like ASJ and others were saying the world was going Blu because of the overwhelming success of the PS3, etc, and the claims that the PS3 was a success in the face of steadily declining sales.

The PS3 had its worst month with only 82,000 sold

To put it in perspective no home console has sold so less in a month (except perhaps game cube on a couple of occassions).

But, in this thread what matters is how does this affect BD s/w sales. I'd say not much - which is kind of bad for BD since they expected large sales of PS3 which would translate to higher sales of BD movie s/w.

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/13/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (UNI, $29.98)
8 THE DEPARTED (WB, $39.99)
9 SUPERMAN RETURNS (WB, $39.99)
10 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/13/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 DEJA VU (BV, $34.99)
5 DIRTY DANCING: 20TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION (LG, $29.99)
6 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
7 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)
8 TERMINATOR 2: JUDGMENT DAY (LG, $29.99)
9 THE QUEEN (BV, $34.99)
10 CATCH & RELEASE (SONY, $38.96)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Part of the reason I made the comments was that not too long ago posters like ASJ and others were saying the world was going Blu because of the overwhelming success of the PS3, etc, and the claims that the PS3 was a success in the face of steadily declining sales.

Not too long ago? The PS3 is selling several fold higher than any HD-DVD player and Blu-ray continues to widen its sales lead over HD-DVD with no end in sight, so exactly what has changed? :rolleyes:

Hate to tell anyone this, but a 60/40 ratio in software for either format is not going to kill the other one off. Just ain't gonna happen.

By the way, by the BD braintrusts own logic, doesnt this mean the 360 is whipping, stomping and destroying the PS3, given the pretty consistent 2:1 sales ratio. :D

You forget that it's a worldwide market, and the PS3 is doing much better abroad (especially in japan, where Xbox is doing really horrendously) so it evens out.

As I said, Sony's stock is surging, which pretty much says that people are looking at the long-term forecasts by analysts, which still show PS3 dominating the high-end console market in the end - it's just taking longer to do so :cool:

Btw, what happened to this thread...it used to nhave some good info, but now all the trolls are starting to spout stuff that really has nothing to do with hard sales numbers. :mad:

Hate to tell anyone this, but a 60/40 ratio in software for either format is not going to kill the other one off. Just ain't gonna happen.

Hate to tell you this, but that's bad news for BOTH camps. The sooner HD-DVD goes away (and the way it stands, that's more likely than blu-ray going away), the BETTER for High-def in general.

Hate to tell you this, but looking at the BD performance with practically all studios lined up behind it, all CE manufacturers lined up behind it and the massive marketing, PR and subsidies being spent looks like BD ain't gonna cut it with the public. It's a format for the PS3 only.

The worse news is that sales are flat from Jan-May if one were to draw a trend line plotting weekly sales. Actually, it could well be declining if we remove the top 2 titles....does not bode well at all.

HD DvD on the other hand has had much less to work with....so I would say, given it's much better compatibility with DVD, only HD DVD as a chance as an HD format to complement DVD....for the next 3-5 years.

In the end, BD = PS3 and UMD = PSP. Memory Stick = Sony Devices....

Hate to tell you this, but looking at the BD performance with practically all studios lined up behind it, all CE manufacturers lined up behind it and the massive marketing, PR and subsidies being spent looks like BD ain't gonna cut it with the public. It's a format for the PS3 only.

The worse news is that sales are flat from Jan-May if one were to draw a trend line plotting weekly sales. Actually, it could well be declining if we remove the top 2 titles....does not bode well at all.

HD DvD on the other hand has had much less to work with....so I would say, given it's much better compatibility with DVD, only HD DVD as a chance as an HD format to complement DVD....for the next 3-5 years.

In the end, BD = PS3 and UMD = PSP. Memory Stick = Sony Devices....
You have it pretty much nailed there. Way back there was a segment on the today show for HD DVD and the PR rep explained "Blu ray was for the PS3 and HD DVD was for the replacment for DVD' or something along those lines.
Now i'm in my 30s and friends that iv asked about getting BR players have pretty much all said the same thing, ie what would we do with game machines?

Hate to tell you this, but looking at the BD performance with practically all studios lined up behind it, all CE manufacturers lined up behind it and the massive marketing, PR and subsidies being spent looks like BD ain't gonna cut it with the public. It's a format for the PS3 only.

Hate to tell you this, but the general public does not give a darn what format wins out so long as there is one format only AND there are titles to buy. So long as we have two competing formats many will stay in the sidelines. Right now, Blu-ray is continuing to widen its lead against HD-DVD and it is more future-proof (in terms of interactive capabilities and size). Rational poeple would point out that the way to go is Blu-ray if we want to make sure HD survives at all.

You forget that it's a worldwide market, and the PS3 is doing much better abroad (especially in japan, where Xbox is doing really horrendously) so it evens out.

I didn't want to bring it up since we talk only about US sales here - but since you mentioned it.

In Japan PS3 is doing very poorly. It is being outsold 8:1 by wii. On the home turf of Sony.

Here are the hardware numbers for Japan for week ending 13th. The third column shows total consoles sold since inception.

Wii 66,657 2,459,437
PS3 8,872 914,368
360 2,293 386,079

But look at the software sales for the same week.

Wii 133,850 5,796,146
360 6,864 1,283,832
PS3 6,523 1,185,030

Looks like the low attach rates in not just on BD movies ;)

Hate to tell you this, but the general public still prefers DVD and are staying away from HD formats mainly because of the FUD, misinformation and politics played by the BDA. If not for this, HD DVD would be closer to being a mainstream product.

Hate to tell you this, but the general public still prefers DVD and are staying away from HD formats mainly because of the FUD, misinformation and politics played by the BDA. If not for this, HD DVD would be closer to being a mainstream product.

Seems to me it's quite the opposite.

I've seen more misinformation from the other side it's sad.

Like the myth that BD is a "Sony only" format. Or that the discs are more expensive, or that BD players won't play DVDs, etc.

Or that there are other HD DVD players besides Toshiba.

In Japan PS3 is doing very poorly. It is being outsold 8:1 by wii. On the home turf of Sony.

Um, isn't it Nintendo's home turf as well?

Hate to tell you this, but the general public still prefers DVD and are staying away from HD formats mainly because of the FUD, misinformation and politics played by Toshiba. If not for this, Blu-ray would be closer to being a mainstream product.

It works both ways.

In Japan PS3 is doing very poorly. It is being outsold 8:1 by wii. On the home turf of Sony.


You mean on that same turf where the DS was already selling out every month? Sounds like the home turf of Nintendo too.


Here are the hardware numbers for Japan for week ending 13th. The third column shows total consoles sold since inception.

Wii 66,657 2,459,437
PS3 8,872 914,368
360 2,293 386,079

But look at the software sales for the same week.

Wii 133,850 5,796,146
360 6,864 1,283,832
PS3 6,523 1,185,030

Looks like the low attach rates in not just on BD movies ;)

So how many games are out on the 360 and how many are out on the PS3? I know its fun to neglect important numbers, but lets try to have a bit more integrity here.

Um, isn't it Nintendo's home turf as well?

Right. Currently Wii vs Sony is looking like iPod vs Zune - except Zune is new while PS3 is an upgrade over the #1 console of last generation.

...but lets try to have a bit more integrity here.

I don't need any lectures from you about integrity ... :rolleyes:

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/13/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (UNI, $29.98)
8 THE DEPARTED (WB, $39.99)
9 SUPERMAN RETURNS (WB, $39.99)
10 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/13/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 DEJA VU (BV, $34.99)
5 DIRTY DANCING: 20TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION (LG, $29.99)
6 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
7 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)
8 TERMINATOR 2: JUDGMENT DAY (LG, $29.99)
9 THE QUEEN (BV, $34.99)
10 CATCH & RELEASE (SONY, $38.96)



Wow ...assuming Dreamgirls sell the same for both sides, Blu-ray owned 5 of the 6 and probably 7 of the top 8 titles for last week. Blu-ray still dominates. The week before, DreamGirls BD outsold the HD DVD version 67.6:44.2.

You mean on that same turf where the DS was already selling out every month? Sounds like the home turf of Nintendo too.



So how many games are out on the 360 and how many are out on the PS3? I know its fun to neglect important numbers, but lets try to have a bit more integrity here.
Muppet?

Right. Currently Wii vs Sony is looking like iPod vs Zune - except Zune is new while PS3 is an upgrade over the #1 console of last generation.

Please ...the Wii and PS3 are like Apples and oranges. Of course the Wii(over twice as cheap) will sell a lot more than the PS3.

I don't need any lectures from you about integrity ... :rolleyes:

Do you have an example or was this just a failed attempt to dodge the question?

HD DVD supporters for months said that the reason sales were low was because there were less movies than Blu-ray had. And now you compare a console with more games to a console with less and try to say it means something different.

Muppet?

I think I get your meaning, but could you just accuse me of something more directly?

Does anyone have seasonal numbers for DVDs? IE: do more DVDs sell around summer or winter or fall or spring? I would expect winter as more people stay indoors in the northern snowbound areas and spend more time in their HT.

Does anyone have seasonal numbers for DVDs? IE: do more DVDs sell around summer or winter or fall or spring? I would expect winter as more people stay indoors in the northern snowbound areas and spend more time in their HT.

I don't have any hard numbers but I'm pretty sure they decline all year long up until around November when they spike up like crazy leading to Christmas.

Hate to tell you this, but that's bad news for BOTH camps. The sooner HD-DVD goes away (and the way it stands, that's more likely than blu-ray going away), the BETTER for High-def in general.

You wish. Except a 60:40 sales ratio is not going to crush HD DVD anytime soon. Why is it that BR supporters only want their favorite format to survive ? I just don't see where the problem is if we end up with dual format full featured players. It's the situation for DVD recorders, why couldn't it be the same for BR/HD DVD ? You really think the mass market cares what logo is on the disc ? Only you fanboys would get your panties in a bunch if dual players would become the norm...

You wish. Except a 60:40 sales ratio is not going to crush HD DVD anytime soon. Why is it that BR supporters only want their favorite format to survive ? I just don't see where the problem is if we end up with dual format full featured players. It's the situation for DVD recorders, why couldn't it be the same for BR/HD DVD ? You really think the mass market cares what logo is on the disc ? Only you fanboys would get your panties in a bunch if dual players would become the norm...

The DVD recorder situation is terrible in terms of media prices. You can't honestly say that the prices wouldn't be lower if every company was producing a single standard. Just look at CDs. The difference between producing a DVD and a CD is really not that large, and yet writable DVDs are insanely more expensive -- especially the dual layer ones. The writable format war proved to be a big deterrent for adoption by consumers, and it is still a crap shoot as to whether + or - will work in a given player. I don't care which side wins just as long as one wins and soon. That is the big reason why when I see one side have more studios and more sales I want them to push for the kill.

You are absolutely correct though. So long as neither side is willing to relent and the difference in sales is 60:40 or less both formats are on the road towards meager acceptance and practical failure.

You wish. Except a 60:40 sales ratio is not going to crush HD DVD anytime soon. Why is it that BR supporters only want their favorite format to survive ? I just don't see where the problem is if we end up with dual format full featured players. It's the situation for DVD recorders, why couldn't it be the same for BR/HD DVD ? You really think the mass market cares what logo is on the disc ? Only you fanboys would get your panties in a bunch if dual players would become the norm...

I think that most Blu-ray supporters just want SOMETHING to win.

If you have a way of getting HD DVD to win, I invite you to execute it now so that the format war will end and we can start to see some major content be available at reasonable prices. I would welcome a quick HD DVD victory if you can make it happen.

The fact is that HD DVD supporters have no coherent plan for winning other than to continue to press their case.

Despite many errors, the BDA appears to be ahead however and appears to be closer to victory than HD DVD.

So I might ask you: exactly why do HD DVD supporters keep up the effort when it is only causing the format war to continue? I do not see that HD DVD can win. I do see that both can lose.

I think that most Blu-ray supporters just want SOMETHING to win.

So I might ask you: exactly why do HD DVD supporters keep up the effort when it is only causing the format war to continue? I do not see that HD DVD can win. I do see that both can lose.
This question can go both ways, to both sides. The fact is neither side is winning. We're too early into the formats to declare a winning or losing strategy. I could easily present the same arguement like this:

HD-DVD is clearly the superior format. With standardized features that allow for interactivity and audio codec support which may make many blu-ray players obsolete why don't blu-ray supporters just give up their losing format? With 4 to 1 standalone player advantage over blu-ray, how can blu-ray win. HD-DVD will continue to sell cheaper players. Just wait until sub $200 players hit the market this year and the bubble pops. The PS3 can only keep the blu-ray's Exxon Valdez afloat for so long. When HD-DVD leaves blu-ray in the dust due to cheap players, how long will it take for it's supporters and studios to follow suit?

See, an arguement can easily be made for both sides to give up and let the other win. But this Texas hold-em match is just beginning, and both sides have hardly had to dig in to their big pile of chips they have stacked in front of them. There's no giving up by either side, it's far too early in the game.

I don't think it's actually early in the game at all, in fact I think (at at least hope) it's in the endgame phase.

I would rather have my preferred format lose, than have neither format gain mainstream adoption.

Actually that would be a pretty interesting poll.

HD-DVD is clearly the superior format. With standardized features that allow for interactivity and audio codec support which may make many blu-ray players obsolete


Can you be specific here? I have not seen these standardised features and codecs that make BD players obsolete. Perhaps you can actually use an example to prove HD DVD superiority...?

The HD DVD discs can't even resume when stopped, or frame forward. It seems the HD DVD format lacks standardised features if anything.


why don't blu-ray supporters just give up their losing format?

Because HD DVD is inferior in every spec that matters.

Capacity
Bitrate
Studio Support
Sales
Recordablility

Which is the losing format again?

Blu-ray supporters want HD DVD to go away because it is the lower spec'ed format. It is really that simple. It just muddies the waters for people looking for HD discs...

But you have heard that all before I am sure....

Can you be specific here? I have not seen these standardised features and codecs that make BD players obsolete. Perhaps you can actually use an example to prove HD DVD superiority...?

The HD DVD discs can't even resume when stopped, or frame forward. It seems the HD DVD format lacks standardised features if anything.



Because HD DVD is inferior in every spec that matters.

Capacity
Bitrate
Studio Support
Sales
Recordablility

Which is the losing format again?

Blu-ray supporters want HD DVD to go away because it is the lower spec'ed format. It is really that simple. It just muddies the waters for people looking for HD discs...

But you have heard that all before I am sure....
I'm sorry that this has nothing to do with the topic of this thread, but this cannot be left unanswered.

Let me throw the following arguments in here:
- mandatory codecs per spec, all codecs are supported by each player
- easy upgrade of production lines hence lower costs of the product
- IME/PiP available and mandatory per specification
- cheap players available now
- no region limitation, freedom to buy around the world

... just a few examples for superiority. Tell me: why should I elect for BD when I have to give up the features I listed above?

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/13/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
5 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (UNI, $29.98)
8 THE DEPARTED (WB, $39.99)
9 SUPERMAN RETURNS (WB, $39.99)
10 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/13/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 DEJA VU (BV, $34.99)
5 DIRTY DANCING: 20TH ANNIVERSARY EDITION (LG, $29.99)
6 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)
7 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)
8 TERMINATOR 2: JUDGMENT DAY (LG, $29.99)
9 THE QUEEN (BV, $34.99)
10 CATCH & RELEASE (SONY, $38.96)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

It's remarkable that Dirty Dancing and Donnie Brasco (which are catalog titles) entered higher than Catch and Release. Maybe that's why Universal didn't release Because I Said So on HD DVD - romantic comedies don't sell that well on hidef.



A slow week, indeed.

A slow week, indeed.

The calm before the storm.

Wow ...assuming Dreamgirls sell the same for both sides, Blu-ray owned 5 of the 6 and probably 7 of the top 8 titles for last week. Blu-ray still dominates. The week before, DreamGirls BD outsold the HD DVD version 67.6:44.2.

Assuming Casino Royale sold like the week before not a single title except for PE sold more than around 2.000 copies. This based on percentages from last two weeks and an estimate that Night at the Museum didn't sell more than 15.000 it's first week.

So the entire #2-10 titles on both formats would probably reside within 500-2.000 copies for the week. That won't make anyone happy. Certainly won't decide any format wars.

The same is true these days. If I go into BB or CC, they may have 1 DS unit, but that is on a lucky day.

You need to go to Costco or Sam's. I go to both at least once a week, and maybe twice in the last 4 months have there been less than SIXTY in stock.

I'm sorry that this has nothing to do with the topic of this thread, but this cannot be left unanswered.

Let me throw the following arguments in here:
- mandatory codecs per spec, all codecs are supported by each player
- easy upgrade of production lines hence lower costs of the product
- IME/PiP available and mandatory per specification
- cheap players available now
- no region limitation, freedom to buy around the world

... just a few examples for superiority. Tell me: why should I elect for BD when I have to give up the features I listed above?

- Not True, While TrueHD and DD+ is supported, DTS HD and HD MA aren't, Panasonic and PS3 support TrueHD on BluRay, the New Pioneer Elite will, the old Pioneer Elite will get a FW Update for it in July and i read that Samsung BP1200 has the same audio DSP that Panasonic Use, so theorically it would too in the future.
- Yeah, that's for the Disc, but the price are about the same on both
- That one you're right...
- Right too, but the new Panasonic is at the same price that XA2, Sony got one coming too.. (1080p support etc etc)
- No region is good, but it's cost them studio support, Fox and Disney are a big fan of those..

Looks like the thread is again overrun by people who are treating this as general format war thread :(

HD DVD supporters for months said that the reason sales were low was because there were less movies than Blu-ray had.

Show me quotes on that.

Learn to be more specific. People were talking about releases that week - not overall numbers. Same holds for games in Japan. I'm not going to argue about japanese game numbers here - if you want go to vgchartz and show your sony fanboyism there ...

So I might ask you: exactly why do HD DVD supporters keep up the effort when it is only causing the format war to continue? I do not see that HD DVD can win. I do see that both can lose.

Sounds a lot like Lord Cornwallis in "The Patriot" when he wondered aloud why this rabble with pitchforks and swords continued to rush his vaunted cavalry. Certainly they had no hopes of actually winning. ;)

So I might ask you: exactly why do HD DVD supporters keep up the effort when it is only causing the format war to continue? I do not see that HD DVD can win. I do see that both can lose.

This has been answered a number of times. Here it is again for the lazy ..

HD DVD in the only format that beleives in providing inexpensive players which is essential for mass adoption of HiDef DVD. Not just that they are putting that beleaf into action.

We have already seen that the BD / HD movie sales are pathetic compared to DVD sales. If this continues both the formats will fold up / relegated to niche. Now with PS3 tanking what other hope does BD have of going mainstream ?

This is the part I'm not sure about. IIRC, I read somewhere that you need to send data in order to subscribe (if you are a retailer). This is also one of the reasons why Walmart dropped out of all these data collection - they thought they were helping these agencies and other retailers more than the value they were getting.

Think about it. Why would anyone send data ?

My personal experience in the US is a couple of years old and from music retail. Nielsen/Videoscan (Musicscan) was (is) doing the data collecting there as well. It was crucial for any store/smaller chain to give the data or you would not get fair treatment from the labels/distributors. Simple as that. Small equals no choice.

Today, working in Europe we have a similar report system that is also used to get technical, price and release info into the stores system. This is free but if you don't report sales you have to pay. I have no idea if this is something that is also implemented by Nielsen today. If so it would be very hard for any significant retailer not to be included.

It was useful for the stores that there was a top 100 etc. It was a sales tool. It was published in most newspapers and every media. Probably less so than in the past but still. This and getting more promotional material, not getting new shipments later than others etc. We did not get free detailed info. There was some regional lists that we could get that I don't think the public had access to but apart from that nothing.

As for Walmart I can see at least three possible reasons for them not giving data. 1. They will get preferential treatment from labels anyway since they are a huge player. 2. The didn't want to pay and refused on principle when they didn't get the compiled data free (basically what you said). 3. There was some conflict with their own systems.

It is of course possible for Nielsen to refuse anyone who does sell directly to customers access without also giving info. That's their choice really.

Please ...the Wii and PS3 are like Apples and oranges. Of course the Wii(over twice as cheap) will sell a lot more than the PS3.

Yeah maybe if the Zune was half the price it would sell more content than iTMS... but then there's the example of HDDVD versus Blu-ray and we know that just isn't so. :o :D

I didn't want to bring it up since we talk only about US sales here - but since you mentioned it.

In Japan PS3 is doing very poorly. It is being outsold 8:1 by wii. On the home turf of Sony.

Here are the hardware numbers for Japan for week ending 13th. The third column shows total consoles sold since inception.


Looks like the low attach rates in not just on BD movies ;)

I'm not going to argue about japanese game numbers here - if you want go to vgchartz and show your sony fanboyism there ...
"Here are some japanese game numbers." "I WON'T TALK ABOUT JAPANESE GAME NUMBERS."

You brought them up in the first place. You made a comparison that was misleading without additional data, and now you don't want to talk about them? Someone is a fanboy and a "deceptive viral marketer" alright, but it certainly isn't me.

Looks like the thread is again overrun by people who are treating this as general format war thread :(
If you start something someone is going to try and finish it.

Since you obviously don't have the data I asked for, and since you seem more likely to call someone a shill than be proven wrong I'll let you drop the issue. In the past I haven't always agreed with your posts, but at least they were on-topic. Please try to refrain from letting your console fanboyism leak into a thread where it doesn't belong.

HD DVD in the only format that beleives in providing inexpensive players which is essential for mass adoption of HiDef DVD. Oh, please. :rolleyes: Have you seen the product plans of the BD CE companies? All of them have been planning on offering a wide range of players at different prices points since day one. The difference is that HD DVD has been implementing it faster. The BD CE companies also want to sell tens of millions of BD stand-alone players and know the price-adoption rate curves just as well as Toshiba.

Sales numbers for week ending May 13

Week 62/38
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43

All numbers BD/HD DVD