1. (1) Planet Earth HD DVD 100.00
2. (2) Planet Earth BD 66.03
3. (3) Night at the Museum BD 49.43
4. (4) Deja Vu BD 46.45
5. (7) Casino Royale BD 41.66
6. (5) Dreamgirls BD 31.21
7. (9) Smokin' Aces HD DVD 20.41
8. (6) Dreamgirls HD DVD 18.20
9. (-) Happy Feet BD 17.37
10. (-) The Departed BD 17.20

Top 5 BD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Night at the Museum 74.86
3. Deja Vu 70.34
4. Casino Royale 63.10
5. Dreamgirls 47.26

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. Smokin' Aces 20.41
3. Dreamgirls 18.20
4. Alpha Dog 14.58
5. Batman Begins 14.46

Looks like the thread is again overrun by people who are treating this as general format war thread :(

You have to admit you have been fanning some of the flames in that regard, no? Your very following reply to theflux, if not to rlsmith and others just smack of the battle thread.



- mandatory codecs per spec, all codecs are supported by each player
- easy upgrade of production lines hence lower costs of the product
- IME/PiP available and mandatory per specification
- cheap players available now
- no region limitation, freedom to buy around the world

... just a few examples for superiority. Tell me: why should I elect for BD when I have to give up the features I listed above?


For one it does nothing to nullify the advantages layed out by Phloyd:

Capacity
Bitrate
Studio Support
Sales
Recordablility


The mandated codec support you refer to incorrect (as ryoohki noted) and is misleading since while the player may require that support, the content is not also mandated. Thus, no TrueHD in King Kong, as an infamous example. BD regularly increases its lead in providing lossless sound, as a matter of fact.

IME/PiP is available for BD, just not in the same way. Jason Statham on my Crank BD doesn't look to be in any less resolution than Jason Bale in my Batman Begins HDDVD, for example. No option for region coding is almost certainly a factor in keeping a certain studio from supporting HDDVD. It's worth nothing that region coding is not mandated by the format, merely provided to those studios that choose to implement it to protect their theatrical windows in foreign markets.

I guess you have the cheap player part... for now at least, unless you don't want to believe a perfectly reputable guy like kjack. :D . How much did you pay for your player, though? ;)

1. (1) Planet Earth HD DVD 100.00
2. (2) Planet Earth BD 66.03
3. (3) Night at the Museum BD 49.43
4. (4) Deja Vu BD 46.45
5. (7) Casino Royale BD 41.66
6. (5) Dreamgirls BD 31.21
7. (9) Smokin' Aces HD DVD 20.41
8. (6) Dreamgirls HD DVD 18.20
9. (-) Happy Feet BD 17.37
10. (-) The Departed BD 17.20

That was unexpected.
Planet Earth on HD DVD outsold Planet Earth on BD by quite a margin and even sold twice as many copies as Night at the Museum? That's amazing.

That was unexpected.
Planet Earth on HD DVD outsold Planet Earth on BD by quite a margin and even sold twice as many copies as Night at the Museum? That's amazing.

I was pretty surprised by it as well. Planet Earth on HD DVD is a great title and its nice to see it get a lot of exposure.

That was unexpected.
Planet Earth on HD DVD outsold Planet Earth on BD by quite a margin and even sold twice as many copies as Night at the Museum? That's amazing.

I have marveled at this - the sales of PE on HD DVD. It outsold all of the other HD DVDs by 5:1!

It kinda makes me wonder if they are counting $ or unit sales...?!?

I guess with no movement in the SI numbers, we have another low sales volume week...

Everybody is saving up for next week. Especially on the BD side, I know there are 5 definite and 2 maybes. And I'm still pondering the Matrix set on HDDVD, as well but thinking I might save that money for an XA2...

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052007/

Lots of interesting stuff.

I have marveled at this - the sales of PE on HD DVD. It outsold all of the other HD DVDs by 5:1!

It kinda makes me wonder if they are counting $ or unit sales...?!?
I've had the same thought. Maybe they are counting the dollars. That might help explain it. Either way, the staying power of that title is amazing.

Actually I kinda feel sorry for the member who said he would destroy his PS3 if the organized buy moved any HD-DVD title into the top 10. It's clear to me that PE was going to be there anyway (although the buy day may have pushed it there faster, I really don't know.)

asj,

Not too long ago? The PS3 is selling several fold higher than any HD-DVD player and Blu-ray continues to widen its sales lead over HD-DVD with no end in sight, so exactly what has changed?

One last time - do you consider the PS3 to be primarily a BD player? In other words, should every single PS3 be counted as a BD player?

Later in this thread, you claim that PS3 is outselling the 360. There are two points. First, the PS3 is selling worse in Japan than it is in America. Second, this is a bogus argument as the 360 never has and never will sell well in Japan. No one, and that probably includes MS ever expected the 360 to sell well. OTOH, the PS3 is being decimated by Nintendo in Japan.

which still show PS3 dominating the high-end console market in the end

I dont understand this statement. The ps3 is pretty much in last place in most markets. How does this constitute "domination" By your logic, HD DVD is dominating BD.

NPD numbers for April are horrific for PS3. About 20K a week. Worse than what vgchartz had predicted. What happens if HD A2 players being sold at $299 ($399 MSRP - $100 instant rebate = $299 or $200 off with Toshiba HDTV purchase) start to approach the PS3 monthly sales volume?

What happens if no Blu-ray player matches or comes close to the $299 price point this year? When do those HD DVD players sales start affecting the Nielson/Videoscan numbers? Do second quarter HD DVD player sales start affecting 2nd quarter disc sales or would it be later than that? Why haven't we see movement on HD DVD discs sales already? Or when would we assuming April May and June HD DVD sales accelerate because of the price drops? When would we know?

Does anyone have seasonal numbers for DVDs? IE: do more DVDs sell around summer or winter or fall or spring? I would expect winter as more people stay indoors in the northern snowbound areas and spend more time in their HT. Large in early Jan ( the so called fifth quarter) as people buy DVDs to play on their new Christmas toys. Low in rest of Jan-Mar, with April - October flat (but much better than 1st quarter) with a huge spike upwards after Thanksgiving and throughout December.

All bets are off though if new player sales spike demand for more movies, or if new player owners want to watch newly released hit movies.

Both formats sales volumes are so low that exceptional events can overwhelm any natural seasonal trends.

asj,
One last time - do you consider the PS3 to be primarily a BD player? In other words, should every single PS3 be counted as a BD player?

Duh, it IS a blu-ray player...now, whether the attachment rate is the same, that's another question.

Later in this thread, you claim that PS3 is outselling the 360. There are two points. First, the PS3 is selling worse in Japan than it is in America. Second, this is a bogus argument as the 360 never has and never will sell well in Japan. No one, and that probably includes MS ever expected the 360 to sell well.

Actually, my point was that it's a worldwide market so the success of a console is dependent on overall world sales. You seem to be going in tangents here.

OTOH, the PS3 is being decimated by Nintendo in Japan.

And your point would be? I don't think Nintendo runs HD-DVD, do you?


I dont understand this statement. The ps3 is pretty much in last place in most markets. How does this constitute "domination" By your logic, HD DVD is dominating BD.

You forget to mention that i said "will dominate", as in future tense. As I said, most analysts note that as time passes and games come to the PS3 and sony finally cuts the price slightly, the PS3 will gain momentum and several years from now will have the lion's share of the high-end console market. In fact, I think this is a consensus analysis, but one that obviously depends on sony cutting the price is future.

Looks like the thread is again overrun by people who are treating this as general format war thread :( Can we get back to talking about numbers or speculate on how current events will affect future numbers?

What happens is HD A2 players being sold at $299 ($399 MSRP - $100 instant rebate = $299 or $200 off with Toshiba HDTV purchase) start to approach the PS3 monthly sales volume?


What happens if pigs can fly? All this speculation is hurting this thread, which was supposed to be for hard numbers. I guess the HD-DVD fanboys can't bear to see Blu-ray continuing to dominate HD-DVD and widen its lead every week :rolleyes:

What happens if pigs can fly? All this speculation is hurting this thread, which was supposed to be for hard numbers. I guess the HD-DVD fanboys can't bear to see Blu-ray continuing to dominate HD-DVD and widen its lead every week :rolleyes: The HD A2 has probably sold at least 30-40,000 units in April being priced at $399. It will now be available at $299.

The PS3 is priced at $499 and has just been NPD tracked at 80,000 NA sales.

With the price drop to $299, increasing HD A2 sales from 20K or 30k or 40K (choice one) to 80,000 units may not be fantasy.

An increase from 30K to 80K in sales with a $100 price drop to $299 is not necessarily a bovine flight fantasy.

The HD A2 has probably sold at least 30-40,000 units in April being priced at $399. It will now be available at $299.

The PS3 is priced at $499 and has just been NPD tracked at 80,000 NA sales.

With the price drop to $299, increasing HD A2 sales from 20K or 30k or 40K (choice one) to 80,000 units may not be fantasy.

An increase from 30K to 80K in sales with a $100 price drop to $299 is not necessarily a bovine flight fantasy.

Let me repeat: what if pigs can fly? All these alleged HD-DVD standalone sales have not done anything for the more important meter - sales of movie titles. I very VERY much doubt sales of a standalone player can equal a game console*, but that's beside the point. This thread is for title sales numbers NOW, not speculation and guesses.

*Here's a hard number:
http://www.dailytech.com/Over+100000+HD+DVD+Players+Sold+in+the+US/article6964c.htm

100k total HD-DVD players in ONE YEAR. And you're talking about outselling a game console that on its worst month sold 82K in one month.

An increase from 30K to 80K in sales with a $100 price drop to $299 is not necessarily a bovine flight fantasy.
Shouldn't that be Porcine? :)
J

Let me repeat: what if pigs can fly? All these alleged HD-DVD standalone sales have not done anything for the more important meter - sales of movie titles. I very VERY much doubt sales of a standalone player can equal a game console, but that's beside the point. This thread is for title sales numbers NOW, not speculation and guesses.

Of course it has. there are several million BD players to a few hundred thousand HD DVD players, yet the BD sales aren't pulling away from HD DVD. The attach rate is higher for HD DVD. There is no way to dispute that. You take the total sold and divide by the number of players. And since both formats have sold a similar number, within 5 figures but you have several million BD players yet only hundreds of thousands of HD DVD players, the HD DVD attach rate is higher.

UniSXRD,

Pls go back and see my original comment. It was all about how HiDef numbers are not showing any signs of increase. It started with you going totally OT and challeging the rough numbers I had used.

If you guys have anything to argue about lets move that to the general thread.

If you start something someone is going to try and finish it.


Talk about integrity. Pls go back and check who said anything first about Japan.

ps : BTW, not only did you go totally OT - you also started a personal attack on me.

Talk about integrity. Pls go back and check who said anything first about Japan.

ps : BTW, not only did you go totally OT - you also started a personal attack on me.

Maybe you should go back and check instead. asj2006 compared sales of a Blu-ray player (the PS3) to a potential HD DVD player (the 360). You respond by bringing in sales number for a console that can't even play DVDs. Talk about off-topic.

Where did I personally attack you? Your post was misleading and lacked important information. It lacked integrity. You responded by implying I was a shill or something and then called me a fanboy.

Looks like we can get at least some guidance by comparing percentages again.

Start with deciding that Planet Earth on HD DVD has sold the same the last three weeks. To support this there is not only the very consistent Amazon rank and units sold there but also that doing this gets us very likely numbers for a number of older titles. Batman on HD as well as Departed and Casino Royal on Blue Ray has then this week EACH sold the same as two weeks ago with a max difference of less than 5 percent each. Since these has been out for some time it would seem likely with very small changes in their numbers.

Obviously each of these guesses introduces a margin of error that can not be determined.

Nevertheless based on this.

Here's some numbers comparing top 5 for the last 3 weeks against BD 5/1

BD 5/1 100%
BD 5/8 48.7%
BD 5/15 33.4% (comparing top 7 would give 36.0%)

HD DVD 5/1 27.8%
HD DVD 5/8 31.4 %
HD DVD 5/15 23.8%

So it would seem like the top titles for BD this week sold about 1/3 of two weeks ago and last week about 1/2 of two weeks ago.

By estimating a number for Night at the Museum during release week, and the Planet Earth estimation above, we could also get some rough numbers for other titles. I choose 15.000. Seems likely to me and is a nice round figure. If you believe 10.000 multiply with 0.667, for 20.000 with 1.333

For last three weeks ending 5/15

26.293 Planet Earth combined
21.280 Night at Museum BD
16.925 Deja Vu BD
14.751 Planet Earth HD DVD
11.542 Planet Earth BD
7.925 Dreamgirl combined (2 weeks since release)
5.836 Casino Royal BD
4.858 Dreamgirl BD (2 weeks since release)
4.790 Smokin Aces HD DVD
3.067 Dreamgirl HD DVD (2 weeks since release)
2.138 Alpha Dog HD DVD (2 weeks since release)

The following have been estimated for 3 weeks from 2 weeks data)

2.900 Happy Feet BD
2.690 DVE HD DVD
2.580 Departed BD
2.100 Batman Begins HD DVD

Please do not use these numbers in any other thread or forum where the background for the estimates would get lost. They are not correct and do not pretend to be anything other than an educated guess.

Now back to PS3

Sales numbers for week ending May 13

Week 62/38
YTD 68/32
SI 57/43

All numbers BD/HD DVD

Well, as predicted YTD and SI numbers are same as last week. Infact YTD hasn't moved in 4 weeks.

Last week I has assumed a figure of 67.8 for YTD. Since the weekly is 62/38, YTD needs to go down. It can move from 67.8 till 67.5. These are the numbers I get ..

67.7/32.3 11,392 7,284
67.6/32.4 23,130 14,788
67.5/32.5 35,228 22,523

Considering PE is still tops, I think the total numbers are lower, rather than higher. So, my inclination would be to use 67.6/32.4. If this is the case, it would be the lowest we have seen of BD this year and HD DVD the second lowest.

http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/6659/vsfm7.png (http://imageshack.us)

edit : formating

Start with deciding that Planet Earth on HD DVD has sold the same the last three weeks. To support this there is not only the very consistent Amazon rank and units sold there but also that doing this gets us very likely numbers for a number of older titles.

My assumption would be, it is decreasing every week. But this is a good starting point.

Batman on HD as well as Departed and Casino Royal on Blue Ray has then this week EACH sold the same as two weeks ago with a max difference of less than 5 percent each. Since these has been out for some time it would seem likely with very small changes in their numbers.

2.580 Departed BD
2.100 Batman Begins HD DVD

This is a good guess. And here we have some help. We can use Son't videoscan numbers. Batman was released on 10/10/2006 and Departed on 2/13/2007. The data was till Mar-18 (11 weeks in '07).

First 8 Wks (Total) 2006-TD Annual 2006 YTD 2007
BATMAN BEGINS-HDD 12,395 34,313 22,088 12,225
DEPARTED-BRY 38,993 38,993 38,993

So, looks like Batman was selling at an avg of about 1,100 (12,225 / 11). May be you can halve your estimates all around. Departed is difficult to figure out because of possibly high sales in the first couple of weeks.

Maybe you should go back and check instead.

Trying to move the goal post again ? Pls go back and check who brought in Japan first. And this is the last I'm responding to you about this in this thread.

Oh, please. :rolleyes: Have you seen the product plans of the BD CE companies?

Certainly not. BD not a very open organization - even their specs are closed - which their rep recently told CED they might open in future ;)

All of them have been planning on offering a wide range of players at different prices points since day one. The difference is that HD DVD has been implementing it faster. The BD CE companies also want to sell tens of millions of BD stand-alone players and know the price-adoption rate curves just as well as Toshiba.

Why exactly is that ? Because - BD beleives they can win the pygmies war on the streagth of brand recognition/name and studios support. Tosh is the one that has the low price strategy.

BD is still about doing the business the old way - skimming customers with high margins and prices in the beginning. Tosh is forcing them to wake up and smell the coffee and I (and a lot of consumers) appreciate that.

Do you really think they would have come up with lower priced players but for Toshiba's pricing ?

PS : But this is all OT and we should probably move this to the general thread. And before people scream about me going OT pls go back and see that I was responding to a question.

My assumption would be, it is decreasing every week. But this is a good starting point.



This is a good guess. And here we have some help. We can use Son't videoscan numbers. Batman was released on 10/10/2006 and Departed on 2/13/2007. The data was till Mar-18 (11 weeks in '07).

First 8 Wks (Total) 2006-TD Annual 2006 YTD 2007
BATMAN BEGINS-HDD 12,395 34,313 22,088 12,225
DEPARTED-BRY 38,993 38,993 38,993

So, looks like Batman was selling at an avg of about 1,100 (12,225 / 11). May be you can halve your estimates all around. Departed is difficult to figure out because of possibly high sales in the first couple of weeks.

I'm not following. Using 15.000 for NatM I get 687 for two weeks back and 711 for this week for an average of 700. Which works pretty well with 1.100 for beginning of year. If I halved everything I would get 350. 700 seems pretty logical to me.

Thanks for bringing up the possibility to compare with the confirmed Nielsen numbers.

Certainly not. BD not a very open organization - even their specs are closed - which their rep recently told CED they might open in future ;)



Why exactly is that ? Because - BD beleives they can win the pygmies war on the streagth of brand recognition/name and studios support. Tosh is the one that has the low price strategy.

BD is still about doing the business the old way - skimming customers with high margins and prices in the beginning. Tosh is forcing them to wake up and smell the coffee and I (and a lot of consumers) appreciate that.

Do you really think they would have come up with lower priced players but for Toshiba's pricing ?

PS : But this is all OT and we should probably move this to the general thread. And before people scream about me going OT pls go back and see that I was responding to a question.
Right... Like Toshiba planned to launch a format selling their hardware at a loss. Here's some coffee to smell: They have to sell the cheapest players! Toshiba is VERY aware that it is the only way they can possibly win this "war". How popular has this choice been with the rest of the CE industry?

So you think Toshiba is doing this out of their compassion for the consumers? Seriously, YOU need to wake up and smell the coffee.

Oh, right, OT. Anyways, the next few weeks will be telling, possibly. Some big titles hitting, ratios will be very interesting.

I've had the same thought. Maybe they are counting the dollars. That might help explain it. Either way, the staying power of that title is amazing.

Actually I kinda feel sorry for the member who said he would destroy his PS3 if the organized buy moved any HD-DVD title into the top 10. It's clear to me that PE was going to be there anyway (although the buy day may have pushed it there faster, I really don't know.)

There is absolutely nothing to indicate that public Nielsen numbers are based on anything other than units.

The numbers that Sony liberated indicates units is used for the ranks. My personal knowledge of how Nielsen presented numbers a few years back says units and the facts that Nielsen wouldn't know the price each unit sold for indicates units. Unless something has changed Nielsen can't see what each disc sold cost. And they can't use msrp since that would introduce errors when msrp changes for titles.

Planet Earth is selling very well. Especially considering it's price. I predict that next week with Planet Earth and two versions of Matrix HD DVD may get close counting dollars instead of units. Of course we would have to do the math ourself. Nielsen won't.

I'm not following. Using 15.000 for NatM I get 687 for two weeks back and 711 for this week for an average of 700. Which works pretty well with 1.100 for beginning of year. If I halved everything I would get 350. 700 seems pretty logical to me.

Thanks for bringing up the possibility to compare with the confirmed Nielsen numbers.

You are right. I was looking at the numbers you posted as per week. Infact you could increase to make that about 1K per week (even though 700 might be a good estimate as well).

asj,

let us focus on disc sales then. You say that low price HD DVD players havent helped disc sales. And yet, the same can be said for the PS3. The charts (see above) clearly indicate mediocre sales at best for HDM in general, so all those PS3 players have not resulted in millions of discs sold every month. Heck, they havent even generated 500K unit sales per month.

Yes yes yes you and Darin can now talk about how well PS3s are not really BD players and no one would expect every PS3 should be counted as a player (which your earlier statement implied).

So, about all anyone can really say is that HDM are doing pretty poorly over all, and if you want to say that BD is less of a failure and therefore "winning" be my guest.

They have to sell the cheapest players!

This proves my point. Not only BD but their fans are elitists who scorn at inexpensive players. They prefer expensive players and HiDef DVD to remain a niche. :p

Problem with BD has always been they are just concentrating on the pygmies war between HD & BD instead of working to take on DVD. That is the reason they keep talking about "more content" as if 200 BD movies can compete with 100,000 DVDs. :eek:

Trying to move the goal post again ? Pls go back and check who brought in Japan first. And this is the last I'm responding to you about this in this thread.

Japan was relevant since the a Blu-ray player (the PS3) outsells a potential HD DVD player (the 360). Your numbers for the Wii were irrelevant and off-topic because the Wii doesn't even play DVDs or an HD format (this thread is about HD format sales remember). I'm glad you won't be responding anymore, you weren't able to defend your statements. I applaud you trying to save face by just admitting you were wrong and dropping it.

Certainly not. BD not a very open organization - even their specs are closed - which their rep recently told CED they might open in future ;) How are the specs more closed than for DVD and HD DVD? All require signing a similar agreement before they can be obtained.

skimming customers with high margins and prices in the beginning. Tosh is forcing them to wake up and smell the coffee

Please. It's about recouping startup and R&D costs.

Not every company is sitting on a multibillion dollar war-chest.

Not only BD but their fans are elitists who scorn at inexpensive players.

No, they scorn cheap crap players from China who have less reliability and don't last as long as a goldfish won at a county fair.

Is MS now demoing VC-1/XBOX 360 materials on a Polaroid instead of a Sony XBR?

How are the specs more closed than for DVD and HD DVD? All require signing a similar agreement before they can be obtained.

Don't really know. Need to ask CED - somehow the BD rep seemed to agree with the question.

You need to do that over the entire product cycle. And as if Tosh doesn't have R&D costs too :p


I thought that was the whole point of HD DVD? An evolution of DVD to keep costs down instead of creating a new superior format?

I thought that was the whole point of HD DVD? An evolution of DVD to keep costs down instead of creating a new superior format?
Suely you mean: instead of creating new patents

Suely you mean: instead of creating new patents

Oh I'm sure there are plenty of patents to go around for both formats. VC-1 has over 200.

I've had the same thought. Maybe they are counting the dollars. That might help explain it. Either way, the staying power of that title is amazing.

I'm +ve that videoscan gives only units - not revenue. Yes, it is amazing that PE continues to be at the top - but probably because there are no good releases. Afterall the first week of release, it was #3.

What happens if HD A2 players being sold at $299 ($399 MSRP - $100 instant rebate = $299 or $200 off with Toshiba HDTV purchase) start to approach the PS3 monthly sales volume?

What happens if no Blu-ray player matches or comes close to the $299 price point this year? When do those HD DVD players sales start affecting the Nielson/Videoscan numbers? Do second quarter HD DVD player sales start affecting 2nd quarter disc sales or would it be later than that? Why haven't we see movement on HD DVD discs sales already? Or when would we assuming April May and June HD DVD sales accelerate because of the price drops? When would we know?

These are critical questions that will shape the future of the format war.

I'd say if Tosh starts selling 50K per month on a regular basis (from what I guess is 20K now) - it is going to have a major impact on the s/w sale numbers. PS3 would have to sell close to 300K per month to match that going by current attach rates.

I think the price cut of Tosh and thus more unit sales will probably not have an impact until well into the second half of the year. With so many free movies being offered, they are not likely to buy many in the beginning.

Let me repeat: what if pigs can fly? All these alleged HD-DVD standalone sales have not done anything for the more important meter - sales of movie titles. I very VERY much doubt sales of a standalone player can equal a game console*, but that's beside the point. This thread is for title sales numbers NOW, not speculation and guesses.



wotz wrong with you. PIGS CAN FLY !!!!

Some interesting numbers in this article in HMM.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052007/index.php?startpage=34

The expected number of s/w sales (combined) are

2007 2.00M
2008 4.75M
2009 8.47M
2010 16.50M

This translates to some 40K per week this year and 90K per week next year. Even in 2010 HiDef DVD is expected to sell less than 17% of the DVD sales.

Our numbers seem to tally with the 40K average per week for this year.

One more thing. HD DVD claims an attach rate of 15 to 18 per annum. That translates to atleast 1 movie per month. But doesn't look like HD DVD will sell 250K movies this month - so they may be talking about only CE players (not including the 360 add-on) when they talk attach rates - even though I don't see how they can differentiate CE player owners and add-on owners using just the unit sales numbers.

This is a new low for you I see. Comparing a BD supporter to terrorists. Nice.

No not a BD supporter - but someone who refuses to identify himself or his company but takes pot shots at others who do. You want to remain hidden under covers and then throw stones at others. Shame on you.

No not a BD supporter - but someone who refuses to identify himself or his company but takes pot shots at others who do. Shame on you.

You are so in the wrong here it isn't funny.

Was I saying anything about you?

No, I was commenting that even Microsoft wouldn't use junk from China (like using a Polaroid to demo the 360 rather than the XBR that they *did* use).

You need to do that over the entire product cycle. And as if Tosh doesn't have R&D costs too :p



Except Tosh is planning on eating it and recouping on patent royalties. That's why no other CE joined them.

Except Tosh is planning on eating it and recouping on patent royalties. That's why no other CE joined them.

But other CEs don't have major R&D costs anyway and the ones that have (Sony, Panny & Tosh) get money thr' royalty.

peter,

No, they scorn cheap crap players from China who have less reliability and don't last as long as a goldfish won at a county fair.

Wow, that is a rather amazing statement, given the number of CE manufacturers who have their products made in China - where the only difference between these players and the "cheap" chinese players are name recognition.

peter,



Wow, that is a rather amazing statement, given the number of CE manufacturers who have their products made in China - where the only difference between these players and the "cheap" chinese players are name recognition.


Not even close.

By setting up shop in China they save on land use, labor, taxes, and other costs.

The cheapo players use low grade components, ICs, and Quality Control is quite different as well. You seriously think that a $40 Shinco player made in China has the same quality of components and QA as a $200 Onkyo also made in China?

But other CEs don't have major R&D costs anyway and the ones that have (Sony, Panny & Tosh) get money thr' royalty.

That doesn't mean the others have any incentive to go down to commodity pricing. They most likely made the most profit with DVD between $200 and 300... The Chinese, if not Tosh themselves have made the milking the early adopter followed by mass profitibility difficult since they're bypassing the stages.

IN addition, Toshiba is facing the eventual loss of it's DVD patent royalties which was their incentive to stay as close to those patents as possible. Which is the same reason why the rest of the DVD Forum CE's jumped ship to BDA.

No not a BD supporter - but someone who refuses to identify himself or his company but takes pot shots at others who do. You want to remain hidden under covers and then throw stones at others. Shame on you.

Time to apologise nat, calling people terrorists is not on.

Time to apologise nat, calling people terrorists is not on.

I'm perfectly willing to remove the post if he removes post taking pot shots at me while hiding himself.

And I'd like you guys to think why AVS wants me to disclose where I work while allowing people like Peter and Talk to post here without doing that. This clearly exposes myself to rock throws by people like you and Peter who are confirmed MS haters.

I'm perfectly willing to remove the post if he removes post taking pot shots at me while hiding himself.

And I'd like you guys to think why AVS wants me to disclose where I work while allowing people like Peter and Talk to post here without doing that. This clearly exposes myself to rock throws by people like you and Peter who are confirmed MS haters.

I think this is going OT.

But I prefer that AVS doesn't make people show their allegiance, if they did, even my posts would be monitored (not by HMV, by a different company in finance) because many of our clients are from involved companies and I have had personal contact with many, so I doubt that they would want me spreading company/client secrets.

So I think it is good that AVS allows some amount of anonymity, I know if they didn't I would stop posting here instantly (probably under instruction from my company - they don't even like people keeping blogs if you work directly for directors, like myself, or are director level).

For the record I don't hate MS, I despise the way they go about business, forcing people to upgrade their OS through payments to the OEM channel (or forcing them to drop any motivation to even try open source re: Dell) or using threats is not cool. Subsidies I can handle, but anti-competitive behaviour such as the above is not on.

OT post:

I have reported the terrorist post, as I am sure, have others.

Talking of alleged MS-hating as justification, comparing someone to a terrorist is pretty strong hatred right there... Eye for an eye, is it? :)

Geez, the BD fanboys or employees are on the attack! They do tend to travel in packs.

I'm perfectly willing to remove the post if he removes post taking pot shots at me while hiding himself.

And I'd like you guys to think why AVS wants me to disclose where I work while allowing people like Peter and Talk to post here without doing that. This clearly exposes myself to rock throws by people like you and Peter who are confirmed MS haters.

Show me where I personally insulted you Nataraj. Saying that MS is sitting on a large pile of money isn't a potshot, it's a widely known fact. I'd love to be sitting on a large pile of cash. Saying that companies have a right to recoup R&D costs is a potshot?

Saying that Microsoft would demo the 360 on the best possible television rather than some cheapo from China is a postshot? (I'm glad there are no Polaroid reps around here BTW)

You also don't know my posting history. I've defended VC-1, Vista, and other Microsoft products many, many times. I was one of the first to buy an XBOX 360.

So to not like HD DVD is to hate Microsoft? I dislike Sony audio. Does this mean I dislike Sony?

You really really need to look at the situation here.

Peter,

The cheapo players use low grade components, ICs, and Quality Control is quite different as well. You seriously think that a $40 Shinco player made in China has the same quality of components and QA as a $200 Onkyo also made in China?

Actually, I would say that the quality of components between a $150-200 Onkyo player and the $40 Shinco are probably close - there will probably be some differences in QA but not a lot.

Look, when the whole internet audio thing started, companies were and are selling chinese made prodcuts for a fraction of the cost that Big Name companies supposedly sell the same item for.

You pay for the name and the distribution network, and the advertising, etc with an Onkyo that you dont have for Shinco. So the costs are less and the price is less.

Go to any of the DIY forums, especially speaker forums, where people take apart Big Name, Big Buck speakers and find rather modestly priced parts.

So to answer your question, I would not expect there to be a huge difference in parts quality.

It is getting a bit heated isn't it? I'm 51 years old and just going through a "hot flash." My apologies. :eek:

Thread is getting out of hand. If you dont want this thread closed please stay on topic and stop the personal attacks,

non-existant ? so HD DVD sales of standalones 52% versus 48% sales of BD standalones in january report is what ? so you really thing, people did not bought any blu-ray standalone player from january right ? sureeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Nobody bought anything in January. Too expensive. BD is still too expensive. Yeah, I know, Real Soon Now they'll have two players @$600. And PS3 (how could we forget?).

But HDDVD is going to be under $300 from Sunday. That's $300 in hand, versus $600 someday soon. List.

Frankly, at that price difference all standalone sales will be HD DVD. At least to everyone who works for a living. And given that, how does BD survive? Not clear at all that they do. Come this time in 2008, with 4 million standalone HD DVDs sucking down 10 discs for each one sold for a PS3 ... the war is over.

Sony has to bring the standalone BD price down under $400 by September-October or it's all over.

Actually, I would say that the quality of components between a $150-200 Onkyo player and the $40 Shinco are probably close - there will probably be some differences in QA but not a lot.

So to answer your question, I would not expect there to be a huge difference in parts quality.

I have friends at a couple retailers.

It's interesting, one retailer has the opposite of a distribution warehouse: it's where all the defective items go if they fail within the first 30 days of purchase. I compared several no-names and several well known top selling brands.

The no names would literally have hundreds to THOUSANDS of defective players.
The "good" brands (Sony, Panasonic, etc) would have few to none.

Dead LCDs out of the box. Again, most of them said "Made In China" on the back.

These no names are no name for a reason. If a branding gets a bad enough reputation, they simply change their name. Voila! New company, same (crap) product.

But HDDVD is going to be under $300 from Sunday. That's $300 in hand, versus $600 someday soon. List.

HD has always been cheaper player wise so I don't get your point, since this thread shows that BD has been out selling HD in the 60:40 range this year. That means people have bought the expensive standalones or the PS3 and are buying movies as well.

I like most people are going to be most curious as to what the results of the 5/22 release date has an effect on sales. I know as a BD buyer I've been not buying, so as to spend a great deal of money on 5/22. Some purchases are considered a wash since they are available on both formats, others exclusive.

Anyways, chill out and watch some movies, that is what really counts.

Player prices really aren't the issue IMO. There are plenty of players already in consumer's hands, yet the software is still sitting on shelves. The movie prices are just too high, especially for impulse buying. Most people are only getting the titles they really want which isn't very often. With DVD, I don't think I spent more than $13 for a DVD the first couple years. It was a constant sale for new titles and I would buy stuff just because of the price, not because I really wanted it. HDM really needs to come down even before the players.

Nobody bought anything in January. Too expensive. BD is still too expensive. Yeah, I know, Real Soon Now they'll have two players @$600. And PS3 (how could we forget?).

But HDDVD is going to be under $300 from Sunday. That's $300 in hand, versus $600 someday soon. List.

Frankly, at that price difference all standalone sales will be HD DVD. At least to everyone who works for a living. And given that, how does BD survive? Not clear at all that they do. Come this time in 2008, with 4 million standalone HD DVDs sucking down 10 discs for each one sold for a PS3 ... the war is over.

Sony has to bring the standalone BD price down under $400 by September-October or it's all over.

hohoho :) 4 milion this time next year ? with not even 20k selling monthly now, and maybe 40k average with price cut over rest of the year ? it will not even be on 1 million at that time :)

M.

Actually, I would say that the quality of components between a $150-200 Onkyo player and the $40 Shinco are probably close - there will probably be some differences in QA but not a lot..

:o

4X-5X the cost results in equality of reliablility?

Blu Ray is twice the cost of HD DVD and at least twice as reliable. The forums bear this out as the playback complaints are many fold greater in the HD DVD forums. These cheap HD DVD players may end up being a real risk (and gamble) for HD DVD rather than the cavalry...

:o

4X-5X the cost results in equality of reliablility?

Blu Ray is twice the cost of HD DVD and at least twice as reliable. The forums bear this out as the playback complaints are many fold greater in the HD DVD forums. These cheap HD DVD players may end up being a real risk (and gamble) for HD DVD rather than the cavalry...

the only reason that " the playback complaints are many fold greater in the HD DVD forums" is because the figure of HD DVD standalone player owners is many fold greater than BD !!!!

Glad you agree.

Both of these show data consistent with Nielsen:

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Whether it's Amazon, DVDEmpire, or Videoscan, the result is the same. Blu-ray discs are outselling HD-DVD discs by a wide margin.

Not completely true. There should be a lot of small internet shops and other small shops and ofcourse Wal-mart with a different ratio than Nielsen. For example http://www.axelmusic.com/index_fab.php?fid=39&pid=fmt where the weekly ratio is: 64.0% for HD DVD, monthly ratio is also better for HD DVD - 63,7%, and lastly also the Yearly ratio is better for HD DVD at 64.3%

and all of those sources have shown the same trends as Nielson with Blu-ray still leading 60/40 ish but HD DVD regaining market share since March 19th.

Not completely true. There should be a lot of small internet shops and other small shops and ofcourse Wal-mart with a different ratio than Nielsen. For example http://www.axelmusic.com/index_fab.php?fid=39&pid=fmt where the weekly ratio is: 64.0% for HD DVD, monthly ratio is also better for HD DVD - 63,7%, and lastly also the Yearly ratio is better for HD DVD at 64.3%

axelmusic shop as example ? :) suuure...., you want european online shop (owned byL.S - Canada) to be included in Nielsen data ? wich are doing a lot of exports/imports to Europe, so they numbers are totaly unusable...

:)

axelmusic shop as example ? :) suuure...., you want european online shop (owned byL.S - Canada) to be included in Nielsen data ? wich are doing a lot of exports/imports to Europe, so they numbers are totaly unusable...

:)

Not to be included in Nielsen data, but only as a example. I think every little shop can be a example because all sales of HD discs are small compared to what they could or should be in the future.

Just wondering if Amazon numbers is included in Nielsen numbers: how big might Amazon be in those numbers, it could be very big in percent. And I've heard that Amazon are quite expensive on HD DVD discs but less expensive at BD discs? This could be a reason why Amazon could drag down the HD DVD ratio at the Nielsen numbers?

and all of those sources have shown the same trends as Nielson with Blu-ray still leading 60/40 ish but HD DVD regaining market share since March 19th.

Yes. PS3 sales have already flattened off.

Unless Sony lowers the price or brings out a comparable $299 player, HD stand alone sales will continue to grow much faster.

Player prices really aren't the issue IMO. There are plenty of players already in consumer's hands, yet the software is still sitting on shelves. The movie prices are just too high, especially for impulse buying. Most people are only getting the titles they really want which isn't very often. With DVD, I don't think I spent more than $13 for a DVD the first couple years. It was a constant sale for new titles and I would buy stuff just because of the price, not because I really wanted it. HDM really needs to come down even before the players. Movie prices will probably cost a lot less later in the year at B&M stores at least for HD DVD. Look at the Amazon prices to get a start. Retailers and studios are probably waiting for more players to start pricing for volume sales.

the only reason that " the playback complaints are many fold greater in the HD DVD forums" is because the figure of HD DVD standalone player owners is many fold greater than BD !!!!

I still bet the ratio of players to issues is higher with HD DVD. I mean I've had FOUR different HD DVD players and each one had issues of some sort - some players worse than others. However, this is not "bad luck" nor a coincidence. Meanwhile, my PS3 has been flawless.

This kind of talk just has no place anywhere. For every dung that says "I've had no problem with mine! But that other guys player what a mess!" There is another dung that says the exact oppsite so it proves nothing!

p.s. I've had zero problems with my a20

Movie prices will probably cost a lot less later in the year at B&M stores at least for HD DVD. Look at the Amazon prices to get a start. Retailers and studios are probably waiting for more players to start pricing for volume sales.
What makes you think just HD DVD?

As for the retailers and Studios, they won't sell more players if when the customer walks over to the media isle and sees that HD media is almost twice as much as DVD. New releases need to start debuting below $20. They could give away players and you probably wouldn't see that big of a jump in software sales. We've past a year now and software sales are pretty much stagnant despite new players in people's homes each month.

Not completely true. There should be a lot of small internet shops and other small shops and ofcourse Wal-mart with a different ratio than Nielsen. For example http://www.axelmusic.com/index_fab.php?fid=39&pid=fmt where the weekly ratio is: 64.0% for HD DVD, monthly ratio is also better for HD DVD - 63,7%, and lastly also the Yearly ratio is better for HD DVD at 64.3%

Since an owner of a European Region B Blu-ray player can't buy all their Blu-ray movies at Axelmusic.com (they don't sell Region B movies) their stats aren't worth anything.

Their "local" sites (axelmusic.dk and other) which sells Region B movies are way too overpriced - they even cost more than in local shops here in Denmark

Since an owner of a European Region B Blu-ray player can't buy all their Blu-ray movies at Axelmusic.com (they don't sell Region B movies) their stats aren't worth anything.

Their "local" sites (axelmusic.dk and other) which sells Region B movies are way too overpriced - they even cost more than in local shops here in Denmark

Either way they sell discs that are made and sold by the US studios. When they add up their results for the HD DVDs the income from these will be as important as any others. The studios have no way of knowing how many are exported anyway. They do sell quite a lot of HD DVDs actually.

It's not HD DVDs problem that Blu Ray owners can't take advantage of lower US prices.

Obviously they aren't counted by Nielsen. If for nothing else because they break the street dates with weeks when they can. At least not the US Nielsen, not sure how Canada are counting.

:o

4X-5X the cost results in equality of reliablility?

Blu Ray is twice the cost of HD DVD and at least twice as reliable. The forums bear this out as the playback complaints are many fold greater in the HD DVD forums. These cheap HD DVD players may end up being a real risk (and gamble) for HD DVD rather than the cavalry...

Hardly twice as reliable. At least for me any problems I had could be corrected with a firmware update. WIth the problem BD I had the only solution was a replacement to be able to play it on the PS3. I would much rather have a firmware update than have a disc replacement.

Hardly twice as reliable. At least for me any problems I had could be corrected with a firmware update. WIth the problem BD I had the only solution was a replacement to be able to play it on the PS3. I would much rather have a firmware update than have a disc replacement.

Depand on what side you're on. I had a HD-A1, played fine until V1.3 then it was hickup land and still did it on fw2.0, i don't know if it was bad luck but after that at leasdt 60% of my movies chocked, stranglely, King Kong didn't and did for a lot of people, anyway i sold it, because the loading time was killing me and i had to pray each time for a title on to hang up..

So, what happened to the excellent idea of locking this thread from Sunday to Friday to prevent people from using it as a dumping ground for any number of 'several miles off-topic' posts.

Maybe just retitle the thread to:

Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 and player reliability and anything else you want to talk about - even sport and the weather!

That should cover it.

So, what happened to the excellent idea of locking this thread from Sunday to Friday to prevent people from using it as a dumping ground for any number of 'several miles off-topic' posts.


The sad part is that on the very Friday and Saturday we got the Nielsen figures, people kept on derailing the thread.

It isn't our fault if the numbers are boring. ;)

I think people are unhappy to see lower & lower sales ....

What makes you think just HD DVD?

As for the retailers and Studios, they won't sell more players if when the customer walks over to the media isle and sees that HD media is almost twice as much as DVD. New releases need to start debuting below $20. They could give away players and you probably wouldn't see that big of a jump in software sales. We've past a year now and software sales are pretty much stagnant despite new players in people's homes each month.

Nothing stopping Blu-ray from dropping disc prices except a probable higher manufacturing cost and lower profit margin per disk.

But also just like for player prices , disc prices for Blu-ray seem to be expected to have the first adopter /new format premium for a while until player prices drop.

But the lower prices for movies and players going to mass adoption levels are a declared part of HD DVDs mass adoption strategy. Universal has stated that retail prices will drop as sales increase and it only makes sense for HD DVD studios to drop prices when more and more players enter the ecosystem.

Right now with low player penetration still or low PS3 attach rates it seems the studios are still on early adopter pricing. As more and more HD DVD (and Blu-ray) players get sold at the $299 mass adoption price point, the studios and retailers will adjust prices to maximize revenues.

HD DVD will just probably get there first as it is being more aggressive in player pricing. That should lead to lower B&M pricing and more disc sales.

Eventually. :rolleyes:

Not completely true. There should be a lot of small internet shops and other small shops and ofcourse Wal-mart with a different ratio than Nielsen. For example http://www.axelmusic.com/index_fab.php?fid=39&pid=fmt where the weekly ratio is: 64.0% for HD DVD, monthly ratio is also better for HD DVD - 63,7%, and lastly also the Yearly ratio is better for HD DVD at 64.3%

wow, that place is expensive.

yes I am sure there can be a few places that have different numbers then Neilsen, but the question is impact. Neilsen has all the BIG retailers except for Walmart and some smaller ones. The reason we look at Neilsen is that the vast majority of disks that are sold will show up there. If your place sold 64 HD DVDS and 36 BDs in the week how does it change the numbers?

Just wondering if Amazon numbers is included in Nielsen numbers: how big might Amazon be in those numbers, it could be very big in percent. And I've heard that Amazon are quite expensive on HD DVD discs but less expensive at BD discs? This could be a reason why Amazon could drag down the HD DVD ratio at the Nielsen numbers?

yes Amazon is included, no the % of neilsen is not that large, no Amazon pricing does not help BD, they are inline with most of the other retailers.

I think people are unhappy to see lower & lower sales ....

well at least this expensive week should show up soon :)

wow, that place is expensive.

yes I am sure there can be a few places that have different numbers then Neilsen, but the question is impact. Neilsen has all the BIG retailers except for Walmart and some smaller ones. The reason we look at Neilsen is that the vast majority of disks that are sold will show up there. If your place sold 64 HD DVDS and 36 BDs in the week how does it change the numbers?


I can guarantee you that they sell ALOT more than that.

The price in US dollars are 5-10 percent worse than paying in Euros or other currencies, not sure why. So while they are high not as bad as it seems.

Even so they(and others) may seem expensive to you but they ship from within EU which means that there are no chance of getting hit with custom and extra taxes.

Compared to anyone selling EU releases, they are cheap. As a bonus they often have US releases delivered in Europe before any of you guys get them in the US.

Player prices really aren't the issue IMO. There are plenty of players already in consumer's hands, yet the software is still sitting on shelves. The movie prices are just too high, especially for impulse buying. Most people are only getting the titles they really want which isn't very often. With DVD, I don't think I spent more than $13 for a DVD the first couple years. It was a constant sale for new titles and I would buy stuff just because of the price, not because I really wanted it. HDM really needs to come down even before the players.

I have to say I agree with everything you've said 100%.

The problem in the market today that is stifling HD format sales is not the price of the "razors" its the price of the "blades". If HD DVD or Blu-ray wanted to win the format war today they would drop movie prices $5-10 accross the board. Right now you could probably give away a player and sales would STILL not be competition to DVD. Movies are just too expensive, even on Amazon -- and lets not even think about the $30 movie prices at the brick and mortar stores. People flocked to DVD because it was cheaper to buy the movie outright than it was to rent it twice or go see it in theaters. Right now that simply isn't true for the HD formats. We've all see what happened during the Blu-ray 50% off sale. Thousands of copies were moved. At the current format prices I have no intention of replacing my DVD collection, and I guarantee you neither does Joe Six Pack. While we both may replace the razzle-dazzle titles, for the most part DVD is fine compared to paying $20+ for the same title I already own.

This all leads back to HD DVD prices. Why aren't HD DVD prices lower? The whole point of HD DVD was that it was much cheaper to run a manufacturing plant than Blu-ray. Why isn't this reflected in the prices of the movies?

I can guarantee you that they sell ALOT more than that.

The price in US dollars are 5-10 percent worse than paying in Euros or other currencies, not sure why. So while they are high not as bad as it seems.

Even so they(and others) may seem expensive to you but they ship from within EU which means that there are no chance of getting hit with custom and extra taxes.

Compared to anyone selling EU releases, they are cheap. As a bonus they often have US releases delivered in Europe before any of you guys get them in the US.

if they are EU only then they have nothing to do with this thread, not only because they are not VS numbers but because they are not US numbers. So there should be no reasoin VS should be looking at them. As for the EU every other place has BD kicking HD DVDs a$$ way more then it is doing here.

As for the prices, my comment was based on the simple fact that when I looked at the BD prices they were higher in USD then what I paid for most titles in CAD and I only buy at B&M.

I have to say I agree with everything you've said 100%.

The problem in the market today that is stifling HD format sales is not the price of the "razors" its the price of the "blades". If HD DVD or Blu-ray wanted to win the format war today they would drop movie prices $5-10 accross the board. Right now you could probably give away a player and sales would STILL not be competition to DVD. Movies are just too expensive, even on Amazon -- and lets not even think about the $30 movie prices at the brick and mortar stores. People flocked to DVD because it was cheaper to buy the movie outright than it was to rent it twice or go see it in theaters. Right now that simply isn't true. We've all see what happened during the Blu-ray 50% off sale. Thousands of copies were moved. At the current format prices I have no intention of replacing my DVD collection, and I guarantee you neither does Joe Six Pack. While we both may replace the razzle-dazzle titles, for the most part DVD is fine compared to paying $20+ for the same title I already own.

This all leads back to HD DVD prices. Why aren't HD DVD prices lower? The whole point of HD DVD was that it was much cheaper to run a manufacturing plant than Blu-ray. Why isn't this reflected in the prices of the movies?

I would not mind lower prices, but let's be honest new titles are not all that more expensive. The problem with old ones is that sometimes you can find them in discount boxes (so it hurts when you compare the 5$ to 20$). What is killing HD disks is the stupid war. I have discussed with many people that are worried to buy a player (or movies) just in case it will go nowhere.

if they are EU only then they have nothing to do with this thread, not only because they are not VS numbers but because they are not US numbers. So there should be no reasoin VS should be looking at them. As for the EU every other place has BD kicking HD DVDs a$$ way more then it is doing here.



Well, should we check and see if every one of your posts in this thread relate directly to Nielsen?

They are US numbers because they are copies bought from US studios and furthermore (for the most part) played on standalones bought from the US market. I'm sure you'll spin that anyway you want but it's a fact. The studios and Toshiba gets the money from this and in the end the income is booked in the US. Does it hurt them in Europe? Possibly but that's hard to tell since prices are so high sales here would be pitiful anyway, and that includes Blu Ray software.

If you think prices are high in the US try buying a HD disk in a store in EU. Heck, try ing to find them should keep you busy.

Well, should we check and see if every one of your posts in this thread relate directly to Nielsen?

don't know if every one is, but I try not to introduce irrelevant stuff.

They are US numbers because they are copies bought from US studios and furthermore (for the most part) played on standalones bought from the US market. I'm sure you'll spin that anyway you want but it's a fact. The studios and Toshiba gets the money from this and in the end the income is booked in the US. Does it hurt them in Europe? Possibly but that's hard to tell since prices are so high sales here would be pitiful anyway, and that includes Blu Ray software.


you are the one spinning. Studios look at what is shipped out but they get the VS numbers for a reason. Titles being stock pilled in warehouses because someone asked for much more then what was needed that later get sent back for a refund don't help anyone. The reason we look at VS is the same reason the studios do. They show what title has sold how much and in what region and store. We might be getting a summery that says HD DVD sold much less this week then BD but the studios and anyone else that pays for the full report gets the breakdown. Studios use that to gauge demand and decide what to do, they don’t look at your two bit side because it is unimportant.

If you think prices are high in the US try buying a HD disk in a store in EU. Heck, try ing to find them should keep you busy.

no I thought those prices were high. I don’t know about Europe (but some of the BDs I saw there are region A so they won’t work in Europe) but those prices are high compared to what they can be found at other places in the US and Canada (where I live). I did not realize that it was for Europe, it just looked odd that anyone would buy them there when they can go to the store and buy them for less.

well at least this expensive week should show up soon :)

Yes, it should be an interesting week. Amazon still shows PE at the top - beating Pirates which beat Matrix.

Amazon still shows PE at the top - beating Pirates which beat Matrix.

?

?

I thought you were talking about the coming week ?

They're not officially released are they? I wouldn't expect either Pirates or Matrix to have shown up on any figures yet.

Next week's releases for Nielsen, along with their tomoto meter ratings and BO.


Title Std Fmt Cat/New Year Tomato BO
Battle of the Bulge W HD Catalog 1967 67%
Battle of the Bulge W BD Catalog 1967 67%
Fountain, The W HD New 2006 50% 10M
Fountain, The W BD New 2006 50% 10M
Road Warrior, The W HD Catalog 1981 100% 11M
Road Warrior, The W BD Catalog 1981 100% 11M
Stomp the Yard S BD New 2007 25% 61M

So, what happened to the excellent idea of locking this thread from Sunday to Friday to prevent people from using it as a dumping ground for any number of 'several miles off-topic' posts.

Maybe just retitle the thread to:

Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 and player reliability and anything else you want to talk about - even sport and the weather!

That should cover it.

I agree..maybe start over...this used to be a good thread with hard numbers until people started spinning stuff about future trends and adding other types of speculation. Me, i'd rather just watch the hard numbers as Blu-ray continues to pummel Hd-DVD :D

you are the one spinning. Studios look at what is shipped out but they get the VS numbers for a reason. Titles being stock pilled in warehouses because someone asked for much more then what was needed that later get sent back for a refund don't help anyone. The reason we look at VS is the same reason the studios do. They show what title has sold how much and in what region and store. We might be getting a summery that says HD DVD sold much less this week then BD but the studios and anyone else that pays for the full report gets the breakdown. Studios use that to gauge demand and decide what to do, they don’t look at your two bit side because it is unimportant.



Sure, why would they care for how many copies that are actually sold and that they get paid for instead of how many Nielsen tells them they sold?

For the studios Nielsen numbers are good only for a short time. For many things, including getting quick estimates for how new titles are doing and to see how they compete against other studios. You think they care about how many King Kongs Nielsen numbers showed that they sold three months back (except for comparisons to other titles)? Of course not. They care about how many they got paid for. Your warehouse/return theory isn't valid. As soon as a store reorders a title they basically forfeits the right to return anything from a previous order so the studios will quickly know very well how they are doing for real.

Go back a few pages and there are discussions about what the studios can do with the info they get. You're not telling us anything new except that studios don't care about actual sales as opposed to estimates? Nielsen is an estimate. No getting around that. It's the best one but it's still an estimate.

I agree..maybe start over...this used to be a good thread with hard numbers until people started spinning stuff about future trends and adding other types of speculation. Me, i'd rather just watch the hard numbers as Blu-ray continues to pummel Hd-DVD :D

Yeah, it's strange how that happens when some start posting in a thread. :rolleyes:

Why don't you suggest how we should get those hard numbers. If you haven't noticed we haven't been getting anything but percentages lately.

Initial post updated.

Next week's releases for Nielsen, along with their tomoto meter ratings and BO.


Title Std Fmt Cat/New Year Tomato BO
Battle of the Bulge W HD Catalog 1967 67%
Battle of the Bulge W BD Catalog 1967 67%
Fountain, The W HD New 2006 50% 10M
Fountain, The W BD New 2006 50% 10M
Road Warrior, The W HD Catalog 1981 100% 11M
Road Warrior, The W BD Catalog 1981 100% 11M
Stomp the Yard S BD New 2007 25% 61M

(WAG warning)
Battle of the Bulge won't register. The Road Warrior will chart at about #5, just above The Fountain. Stomp the Yard will sell well on SD DVD, but not on Blu-ray.

I would not mind lower prices, but let's be honest new titles are not all that more expensive. The problem with old ones is that sometimes you can find them in discount boxes (so it hurts when you compare the 5$ to 20$). What is killing HD disks is the stupid war. I have discussed with many people that are worried to buy a player (or movies) just in case it will go nowhere.

I totally agree. I think that overall players and disc sales for HD would be higher if there were only one format. I think more people would adopt even if prices were slightly higher as they would have much more confidence in one format for the long term.

Sure, why would they care for how many copies that are actually sold and that they get paid for instead of how many Nielsen tells them they sold?

For the studios Nielsen numbers are good only for a short time. For many things, including getting quick estimates for how new titles are doing and to see how they compete against other studios. You think they care about how many King Kongs Nielsen numbers showed that they sold three months back (except for comparisons to other titles)? Of course not. They care about how many they got paid for. Your warehouse/return theory isn't valid. As soon as a store reorders a title they basically forfeits the right to return anything from a previous order so the studios will quickly know very well how they are doing for real.

Go back a few pages and there are discussions about what the studios can do with the info they get. You're not telling us anything new except that studios don't care about actual sales as opposed to estimates? Nielsen is an estimate. No getting around that. It's the best one but it's still an estimate.

The only real purpose of Videoscan at the studio level is to compare how their product performs against the competition. Warner Brothers knows how many discs of a particular movie they sell, but they have no way of knowing how Sony Pictures did.

So lets say Warner knows they sold 10 million units of Movie X. Let's also say Videoscan shows they sold 6 million. Well Warner knows Videoscan is off, because they know how many discs they actually sold. However, let's say Movie X is up against Sony's Movie Y. Well, without Videoscan, Warner would have no way of knowing how well that movie did for Sony. But if Videoscan shows that Movie Y did 10% worse than Movie X, then all things being equal, Warner would know that Sony's Movie Y probably sold 9 million units, even though Videoscan reports 5.4 million.

So for studios, Videoscan is a double-edged sword. You give away some of the information for how well (or poorly) you faired, but in turn, you gain insight into how all your competitors faired.

So Videoscan does not need to accurately reflect studio sales. It merely needs to be representative. Of course, the closer you get to tracking 100% of sales, the more likely you are to be representative. However, you could still be representative with a very low capture of the market.

The problem with the emerging markets of HD DVD and BD is that no one has yet to establish how representative the comparative rankings are to actual studio sales. Videoscan could be painting an entirely inaccurate picture, especially when they are only capturing a thousand or so sales on some titles.

I have to say I agree with everything you've said 100%.

The problem in the market today that is stifling HD format sales is not the price of the "razors" its the price of the "blades". If HD DVD or Blu-ray wanted to win the format war today they would drop movie prices $5-10 accross the board. Right now you could probably give away a player and sales would STILL not be competition to DVD. Movies are just too expensive, even on Amazon -- and lets not even think about the $30 movie prices at the brick and mortar stores. People flocked to DVD because it was cheaper to buy the movie outright than it was to rent it twice or go see it in theaters. Right now that simply isn't true for the HD formats. We've all see what happened during the Blu-ray 50% off sale. Thousands of copies were moved. At the current format prices I have no intention of replacing my DVD collection, and I guarantee you neither does Joe Six Pack. While we both may replace the razzle-dazzle titles, for the most part DVD is fine compared to paying $20+ for the same title I already own.

This all leads back to HD DVD prices. Why aren't HD DVD prices lower? The whole point of HD DVD was that it was much cheaper to run a manufacturing plant than Blu-ray. Why isn't this reflected in the prices of the movies? Disc prices are not B&M lower because the studios can do that later (like in the 4th quarter) and reduce prices when more stand alone players are in the marketplace. Right now the retailers are not serious about maximixing revenues.

Disc street prices on HD DVD will drop by the Nov/Dec sales timeframe to $14.99 or undre for catalog releases and $19.99 or under a $5 premium over they DVD release. Blu-ray prices will probably fall as well to those levels. retailers and studios are still testing pricing as volumes are still small.

I thought you were talking about the coming week ?

yes I was, what I did not understand was your comment.

I would not mind lower prices, but let's be honest new titles are not all that more expensive. The problem with old ones is that sometimes you can find them in discount boxes (so it hurts when you compare the 5$ to 20$). What is killing HD disks is the stupid war. I have discussed with many people that are worried to buy a player (or movies) just in case it will go nowhere.

I think the prices of NEW releases are fine at $25 or whatever amazon is charging. But older titles should be priced in the $10 - $15 range. It's hard for me to purchase a 10-20 year old movie for "full price". This may be hd-dvd's problem, as a lot of their exclusive titles are catagory titles. I think aside from the hardcore enthusist, the prices are too high.

BTW the stuff I mentioned above applies to new releases that are "mediocre" as well. I can see paying maybe $12 - $15 for an "ok" title, but not full price.

The point made about the BR 50% off sale was a good one (even though it's really 20% off of amazon's already discounted prices). A lot of the 47 titles offered fit into the categories I mentioned above (older releases & mediocre newer releases). At $15 a pop, people found it to be reasonable.

The only real purpose of Videoscan at the studio level is to compare how their product performs against the competition. Warner Brothers knows how many discs of a particular movie they sell, but they have no way of knowing how Sony Pictures did.



No, the studio knows how much they shipped not how many were sold. Large distributors and chains tend to have options for returns (and they tend to be passed down the chain). Let's take your example if 10M shipped and they know they shipped 3M to BB, if they get back from VS that BB sold 300k it affects their strategy.

So yes it is important for them to get a good idea how their movie did compared to some other movie but it is not the only thing, or they could just do like us and read the magazines :)

I think the prices of NEW releases are fine at $25 or whatever amazon is charging. But older titles should be priced in the $10 - $15 range. It's hard for me to purchase a 10-20 year old movie for "full price". This may be hd-dvd's problem, as a lot of their exclusive titles are catagory titles. I think aside from the hardcore enthusist, the prices are too high.

you brought up a good example, even with the 50% BD disks did not fly off the shelves. HD DVD has a deal with some merchants for people to pick in the store 4 or 5 titles for free, even with that HD DVD numbers are not exciting. The disk sales are not there (even when you think they should because of the low price) because of two reasons.

1) many people are scared to buy a player because they don't want to spend the money because they might be useless soon

2) many people that did buy a player (that is already a small number) are scared to spend too much on disks because in the end if it goes nowhere they don't want a ton of useless devices connected to their TV and so the collection they did buy becomes useless pretty fast.

you brought up a good example, even with the 50% BD disks did not fly off the shelves. HD DVD has a deal with some merchants for people to pick in the store 4 or 5 titles for free, even with that HD DVD numbers are not exciting. The disk sales are not there (even when you think they should because of the low price) because of two reasons.

1) many people are scared to buy a player because they don't want to spend the money because they might be useless soon

2) many people that did buy a player (that is already a small number) are scared to spend too much on disks because in the end if it goes nowhere they don't want a ton of useless devices connected to their TV and so the collection they did buy becomes useless pretty fast.

Actually his point and mine was that at 50% off the titles did fly off the shelves. Just about every title in the sale was out of stock within a few days despite restocking. At the $15ish dollar range all of the titles were very easy impulse buys. $20 and up starts getting harder.

I think for sales to compared apples-to-apples, some portion of the free HD DVD discs should be counted. Say if Sony does buy 1 get one 50% off, then for every two 50% discs sold in this manner, 1 free HD DVD should be counted.

If you started to examine sales objectively, I think you would see both formats are basically dead even. I mean technically, all free discs should be counted. When a person purchases an HD DVD player, the free discs definately factor into the buying decision. Nielsen has always said they don't count bundle discs because they do not reflect the will of the purchaser to buy the disc. I disagree, as I'm sure the bundled item did factor into the buying decision, and the item may not have been purchased without it. In the case of HD DVD, it even becomes more grey, because the 5 free discs are chosen from 5 tiers, with 4 discs each. So the consumer does have choice of discs, and the are picking one based on their preference, not just some random bundled disc. And if they wouldn't have bought a player for $399 with zero discs, but they would buy one for $399 with 5 discs, then they are essentially paying some premium to get to chose 5 discs from 20.

Bundled discs should not be included in sales data ever.

You have already pointed out that consumers don't have a choice in what titles they get (which skews data to reflect supplier choice instead of consumer choice) and even when they do (in the case of the HD DVD promotion) they really don't. You have to choose from a group of titles that you may not want at all.

Nielsen is supposed to show consumer preference and it does so by keeping out bundled titles.

Actually his point and mine was that at 50% off the titles did fly off the shelves. Just about every title in the sale was out of stock within a few days despite restocking. At the $15ish dollar range all of the titles were very easy impulse buys. $20 and up starts getting harder.

Excellent point. Same thing with the Amazon 50% off. I would certainly pick up many Fox titles if they were priced almost as bad as HDDVD combos.

I think for sales to compared apples-to-apples, some portion of the free HD DVD discs should be counted. Say if Sony does buy 1 get one 50% off, then for every two 50% discs sold in this manner, 1 free HD DVD should be counted.

If you started to examine sales objectively, I think you would see both formats are basically dead even. I mean technically, all free discs should be counted. When a person purchases an HD DVD player, the free discs definately factor into the buying decision. Nielsen has always said they don't count bundle discs because they do not reflect the will of the purchaser to buy the disc. I disagree, as I'm sure the bundled item did factor into the buying decision, and the item may not have been purchased without it. In the case of HD DVD, it even becomes more grey, because the 5 free discs are chosen from 5 tiers, with 4 discs each. So the consumer does have choice of discs, and the are picking one based on their preference, not just some random bundled disc. And if they wouldn't have bought a player for $399 with zero discs, but they would buy one for $399 with 5 discs, then they are essentially paying some premium to get to chose 5 discs from 20.

I completely disagree. Bundled titles should never be included in sales data, because the customer is locked in to the title. Even when given a choice in the 5 tiers, they only have the potential to get one of the 4 movies in that tier, none of which they may want. I realize you want these disks to count because it has an affect on the overall sales numbers, but its not like the BDA is the one bundling free HD DVD's with players. Toshiba is using the free disks as incentives, and if they wanted those titles to count as sales they should stop the practice. The same obviously goes for the new free movies coming with a few Blu-ray players. They should not be counted as sales because they aren't sold to the consumer freely.

In contrast, the BDA appears to use disk sales more often, which will allow it to have higher NPD numbers. There is absolutely nothing stopping Toshiba from doing the same.

Actually his point and mine was that at 50% off the titles did fly off the shelves. Just about every title in the sale was out of stock within a few days despite restocking. At the $15ish dollar range all of the titles were very easy impulse buys. $20 and up starts getting harder.

That's my view too. $22.99-28.99 discount, is still a bite out of the wallet for most (it is for me). You also have the ever-looming contrast of DVD, which not only devalues HDM by price comparison, but also in it's seemingly infinite variety.

King Kong, Casino Royalle, and Casablanca are all appealing titles, but DVD is out there catering to the off-the-beaten path tastes as well. Catering to a crowd that likes something other than just blockbusters doesn't get you huge sales in a small market, but I think there is some long-term value in bringing diverse tastes on board.

Bundled discs should not be included in sales data ever.

You have already pointed out that consumers don't have a choice in what titles they get (which skews data to reflect supplier choice instead of consumer choice) and even when they do (in the case of the HD DVD promotion) they really don't. You have to choose from a group of titles that you may not want at all.

Nielsen is supposed to show consumer preference and it does so by keeping out bundled titles.

Yes, but you are assuming the discs are unwanted. If all 20 discs that are offered are unwanted, then how are they an incentive to buy the player? I know several people who purchased a player because you got free discs (5-9). Without the free discs, they would never have bought. So they did have some desire to own the free discs, or they would not have affected their buying decision. So while they may not have found 5 discs out of 20 that they wanted, surely at least 2-3 must have appealed strongly to them, or the free discs are no incentive at all.

So I think to use the volume of discs sold as some measure of the success of a format, then at least a portion of the free discs must be included in the volume of discs sold (after all, a studio did sell them). I can see severally discounting something like the King Kong HD DVD, as a user may have still wanted the cheapest player and bought anyway, regardless of King Kong. But when 5 discs are offered, with a choice of discs, then I think some partial credit should apply, if you want to compared the sale of discs between one format and the other.

Over 100,000 Toshiba players have sold, probably the free discs on all have been redeemed, so say that is an average of 4 discs, since the offer has varied. That is 400,000 discs that a studio did sell. Add 400,000 to the total of HD DVD sales, and I think you are left with two formats who have sold the same amount of software.

I can understand why BD fans would be afraid to count the free discs as sold, since it would eliminate the software sales advantage BD claims to have.

Bundled discs should not be included in sales data ever.

You have already pointed out that consumers don't have a choice in what titles they get (which skews data to reflect supplier choice instead of consumer choice) and even when they do (in the case of the HD DVD promotion) they really don't. You have to choose from a group of titles that you may not want at all.

Nielsen is supposed to show consumer preference and it does so by keeping out bundled titles.

Who says Nielsen is supposed to show consumer preference? Is it not a tool for studios to use to gauge sales? Even the free discs are sales for the studios, just sales to Toshiba as opposed to BB or CC. BB and CC then sell them to a customer, where Toshiba gives them away with the purchase of a player.

Over 100,000 Toshiba players have sold, probably the free discs on all have been redeemed, so say that is an average of 4 discs, since the offer has varied. That is 400,000 discs that a studio did sell. Add 400,000 to the total of HD DVD sales, and I think you are left with two formats who have sold the same amount of software.

I can understand why BD fans would be afraid to count the free discs as sold, since it would eliminate the software sales advantage BD claims to have.Interesting how you counted the free discs for HD DVD and not for BD. Did you do that on purpose?

--Darin

Interesting how you counted the free discs for HD DVD and not for BD. Did you do that on purpose?

--Darin

What free discs for Blu-ray? Notice I didn't count King Kong, only the Toshiba offer where you get to choose from 20 different titles. Did Blu-ray have a similar offer?

King Kong = Talledega Nights = Not counted because there was no choice there, and there is a high probability the one free discs may not have been a major incentive to purchase the hardware (would people not have bought a PS3, or not have bought the cheapest upgrade to HD DVD if you already own a 360?)

I can understand why BD fans would be afraid to count the free discs as sold, since it would eliminate the software sales advantage BD claims to have.

I can understand why you would be afraid to count the other free discs as sold, since it would eliminate the software sales parity you are attempting to claim by including the HD DVD player freebies.

What free discs for Blu-ray? Notice I didn't count King Kong, only the Toshiba offer where you get to choose from 20 different titles. Did Blu-ray have a similar offer?

King Kong = Talledega Nights = Not counted because there was no choice there, and there is a high probability the one free discs may not have been a major incentive to purchase the hardware (would people not have bought a PS3, or not have bought the cheapest upgrade to HD DVD if you already own a 360?)

Its interesting that you want selective free titles to be counted for your format but not the other. You also left out 500,000 copies of Casino Royale.

This is exactly the reason why the disks are not counted. Who is to say that someone didn't buy the 360 add-on because it included King Kong? You? I've seen a lot of people directly mention getting King Kong free as a reason they bought the add-on. Admittedly, the same isn't true of Talledga Nights. :) You want to count all 400,000 freebies, but what if someone bought the player and didn't want any of them? There is just too much guesswork involved. Did it factor in? Did they want those movies? How many of those movies should count, or should it be fractional? If so, what is the fraction? It is much easier to say that freebies don't count.

Its interesting that you want selective free titles to be counted for your format but not the other. You also left out 500,000 copies of Casino Royale.


I'm under the impression here we are discussing NA numbers, not worldwide. If that's the case, then the CR freebies don't count as they were for Europe.

Chris

I can understand why you would be afraid to count the other free discs as sold, since it would eliminate the software sales parity you are attempting to claim by including the HD DVD player freebies.



Its interesting that you want selective free titles to be counted for your format but not the other. You also left out 500,000 copies of Casino Royale.

This is exactly the reason why the disks are not counted. Who is to say that someone didn't buy the 360 add-on because it included King Kong? You? I've seen a lot of people directly mention getting King Kong free as a reason they bought the add-on. Admittedly, the same isn't true of Talledga Nights. :) You want to count all 400,000 freebies, but what if someone bought the player and didn't want any of them? There is just too much guesswork involved. Did it factor in? Did they want those movies? How many of those movies should count, or should it be fractional? If so, what is the fraction? It is much easier to say that freebies don't count.

Maybe if you thought for a minute...

The 500,000 copies of Casino Royale were only for Europe. The last time I checked, this thread was about US sales numbers, not global numbers. Care to explain why BD would need to count foreign releases in with its US releases to compare against only HD DVD's US releases?

I didn't think box-ins of one title that have a questionable effect to motivate a buyer should be counted. If you think they should, then I wouldn't have a problem with it, as the studios did sell those discs. So to date, there have been about 350k KK discs, and what 500k TN discs? So add 250k discs to the difference between HD DVD and BD, and you still end up with essentially no difference at all. But actually, it appears you said that you think KK should be counted, but that TN should not be counted, so going buy what you said, I guess that would mean HD DVD has a +750k disc count to add to Nielsen numbers.

But are you also seriously claiming that people bought the HD DVD addon strictly for the KK disc? Was that the only reason? Isn't that paying a bit much for it? The HD DVD addon is in a class by itself. No other product competes with it. It's not like if you wanted a $200 HD optical device that you addon to another device, you have a choice about what product to buy. The movie may have been enough to tip people off the fence to get the item, but in most cases, the fact it is the only product in its class, and it the cheapest route for some to get HD DVD were likely bigger factors than just KK.

Are you also seriously saying that for at least a sizable percentage of HD DVD standalone buyers, the free movies provided absolutely no incentive at all, and that they didn't want any of them. Would those people even claim the rebate then? If not, then they wouldn't count as sales, as no discs were given. Along those same lines, are you claiming that those same customers would have been just as likely to buy a Toshiba if you got $100 worth of free baseball cards. After all, if the movies provided no incentive, then it shouldn't matter what the incentive being offered is, right?

Everyone, let me introduce you to theflux, one of the BD fearful who would be afraid to see the true studio disc sales numbers compared head-to-head.

Maybe if you thought for a minute...

The 500,000 copies of Casino Royale were only for Europe. The last time I checked, this thread was about US sales numbers, not global numbers. Care to explain why BD would need to count foreign releases in with its US releases to compare against only HD DVD's US releases?


I'm sorry I brought the free Casino Royale discs into this since you are correct they are foreign releases. There's no need for them to be counted for this discussion.

And in the same way, we are here to talk about the Nielsen/VideoScan numbers, so you should probably start your own thread to talk about your new and exciting calculation methods. They aren't Nielsen's.


I didn't think box-ins of one title that have a questionable effect to motivate a buyer should be counted. If you think they should, then I wouldn't have a problem with it, as the studios did sell those discs. So to date, there have been about 350k KK discs, and what 500k TN discs? So add 250k discs to the difference between HD DVD and BD, and you still end up with essentially no difference at all. But actually, it appears you said that you think KK should be counted, but that TN should not be counted, so going buy what you said, I guess that would mean HD DVD has a +750k disc count to add to Nielsen numbers.


350K copies of King Kong sold with the add-on? I'd like to see your source for the add-on having sold that many.


But are you also seriously claiming that people bought the HD DVD addon strictly for the KK disc? Was that the only reason? Isn't that paying a bit much for it? The HD DVD addon is in a class by itself. No other product competes with it. It's not like if you wanted a $200 HD optical device that you addon to another device, you have a choice about what product to buy. The movie may have been enough to tip people off the fence to get the item, but in most cases, the fact it is the only product in its class, and it the cheapest route for some to get HD DVD were likely bigger factors than just KK.

Are you also seriously saying that for at least a sizable percentage of HD DVD standalone buyers, the free movies provided absolutely no incentive at all, and that they didn't want any of them. Would those people even claim the rebate then? If not, then they wouldn't count as sales, as no discs were given. Along those same lines, are you claiming that those same customers would have been just as likely to buy a Toshiba if you got $100 worth of free baseball cards. After all, if the movies provided no incentive, then it shouldn't matter what the incentive being offered is, right?


What percentage of buyers of the add-on with King Kong should we count? What percentage of the disks included with the players should we count? What is your basis for assuming that if the costs of the players were reduced such that 5 disks could be purchased and total the same retail price that 5 disks in fact would be purchased?



Everyone, let me introduce you to theflux, one of the BD fearful who would be afraid to see the true studio disc sales numbers compared head-to-head.

I'd love to see true studio disc sales numbers compared head to head. Do you have any true disc sale numbers to provide? I'm not interested in your imaginary sales numbers head-to-head comparisons. Somehow everyone else is happy with the freebies not being counted, including Toshiba and the BDA. Clearly though, you must have a better way to do it. You should probably start your own company and put those Nielsen crocks out of business.

1) the Panny comes with free disks in the box, don't know of others.

2) the issue with "free disks" (and many HDF DVDs are counted like the CC buy a Toshiba and pick any 4 (or 5) for free. Is that in the end the user does not have a "choice". Some people buy, others rent. If a renter picked the 5 disks from Toshibas limited list because "they are free" and if they were not free he would not have bought any because he can Netflix. How is his 5 really counted?


3) Toshiba said they sold 100k players, the number of disks during that time has moved from 0 (day one) to what it is today (wasn't it 3 at some point in time) so the total is definitely not Xdisks *100k players.

4) the reality is we don't even know if they are counted, or how many were actually distributed.

Well I think this shows Neilson is of little value to anyone outside of the studios who really know how well they're doing. Since we haven't seen any format moves, we can guess the results so far are inconclusive. The aggressive price move by Tosh leads me to think they believe we're at a tipping point (in their favor)

Well I think this shows Neilson is of little value to anyone outside of the studios who really know how well they're doing. Since we haven't seen any format moves, we can guess the results so far are inconclusive. The aggressive price move by Tosh leads me to think they believe we're at a tipping point (in their favor)

Actually it is a lot of use to us here in the Home Theater world. We don't need to know absolute numbers, or even how close the two formats since inception sales are to talk about the weekly sales ratios and which format they favor.

350K copies of King Kong sold with the add-on? I'd like to see your source for the add-on having sold that many.



I know this question wasn't posed @ me. However it was confirmed that 92,000 360 HD DVD players were sold in the months of November and December. So 92,000 in 2 months. Since then 5 months have passed. So if 92k were sold in 2 months then based on 46k units per month >300k could have been sold. Obviously that is just speculation which is no doubt inaccurate since sales obviously rose higher during December for X-Mas. However given some of the recent sales with the 360 HD DVD player such as two free movies @ Circuit City, the $40 off coupon, etc it is definetly helping to move 360 HD DVD player sales. 350k does seem on the high side, however there should be no doubt that the 360 HD DVD player sales have at MINIMUM doubled since December.

However it was confirmed that 92,000 360 HD DVD players were sold in the months of November and December. So 92,000 in 2 months. Since then 5 months have passed. So if 92k were sold in 2 months then based on 46k units per month >300k could have been sold.

Logic > yU0. It's only reasonable to presume a spike during the holidays. There's simply no believable way that sales on the add-on have gone up since then.


Obviously that is just speculation which is no doubt inaccurate since sales obviously rose higher during December for X-Mas.


No doubt.


However given some of the recent sales with the 360 HD DVD player such as two free movies @ Circuit City, the $40 off coupon, etc it is definetly helping to move 360 HD DVD player sales. 350k does seem on the high side, however there should be no doubt that the 360 HD DVD player sales have at MINIMUM doubled since December.

VERY on the high side. I think you'd be lucky to have doubled but wouldn't be surprised with that (180k or so).

didn´t they announce 150k sold early spring(feb-march) worldwide?

112K up to January (nataraj quoting CED IIRC).

112K up to January (nataraj quoting CED IIRC).
I think that was by Keith. I quoted a later figure of some 130K - have to check back.

What NPD quoted was 92K end of '06 - which MS said looked low. Anyway, I think 250K of Tosh + add-on sounds like a good estimate for May.

Is it time to start the ratio game again? I haven't played the last couple rounds but it's time to take Kosty down. :p

For reference, here are the ratios from the last two weeks:
05/06 60:40 BD
05/13 62:38 BD


From Grubert's release calendar for 5/15

Exclusive releases on BD:
Stomp the Yard

Exclusive releases on HD DVD:
None

Releases on both formats:
Battle of the Bulge
Fountain, The
Road Warrior: Mad Max 2


Put me in for 58:42 BD and just for fun:

#1 Planet Earth HD DVD
#2 Stomp the Yard BD
#3 Planet Earth BD
#4 The Fountain BD
#5 The Road Warrior HD DVD

Next week's releases for Nielsen, along with their tomoto meter ratings and BO.


Title Std Fmt Cat/New Year Tomato BO
Battle of the Bulge W HD Catalog 1967 67%
Battle of the Bulge W BD Catalog 1967 67%
Fountain, The W HD New 2006 50% 10M
Fountain, The W BD New 2006 50% 10M
Road Warrior, The W HD Catalog 1981 100% 11M
Road Warrior, The W BD Catalog 1981 100% 11M
Stomp the Yard S BD New 2007 25% 61M

Some more info.

I know this question wasn't posed @ me. However it was confirmed that 92,000 360 HD DVD players were sold in the months of November and December. So 92,000 in 2 months. Since then 5 months have passed. So if 92k were sold in 2 months then based on 46k units per month >300k could have been sold. Obviously that is just speculation which is no doubt inaccurate since sales obviously rose higher during December for X-Mas. However given some of the recent sales with the 360 HD DVD player such as two free movies @ Circuit City, the $40 off coupon, etc it is definetly helping to move 360 HD DVD player sales. 350k does seem on the high side, however there should be no doubt that the 360 HD DVD player sales have at MINIMUM doubled since December.

I'm perfectly happy with accepting add-on sales in the 200,000-250,000 range. Your points seem valid and plausible to me. I was just a bit surprised to see someone suggest 350,000 add-ons had been sold. That didn't seem reasonable at all. I noticed he hasn't returned with proof, so I can only assume he wanted to guess on the extreme high side to bolster his argument.

Ratio Game: 5/20 edition.

60:40 Blu-ray:HD DVD.

#1 Planet Earth HD DVD
#2 The Fountain BD
#3 Planet Earth BD
#4 The Road Warrior HD DVD
#5 The Fountain HD DVD

63:37 Blu-ray:HD DVD

1. Planet Earth HD DVD
2. Planet Earth BD
3. Stomp the Yard BD :p

1) the Panny comes with free disks in the box...
That's only partially true. One movie was included in the box. The other two were mailed to you when you registered online.

The others arrived in under a week - customer service at its finest.

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
2 HAPPY FEET (WB, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
5 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
8 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $39.99)
9 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)
10 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $34.99)
5 DÉJÀ VU (BV, $34.99)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
7 ERAGON (FOX, $39.98)
8 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
9 HAPPY FEET (WB, $34.99)
10 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
2 HAPPY FEET (WB, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
5 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
8 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $39.99)
9 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)
10 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $34.99)
5 DÉJÀ VU (BV, $34.99)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
7 ERAGON (FOX, $39.98)
8 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
9 HAPPY FEET (WB, $34.99)
10 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

WoW ...is there some sort of error?

Maybe if you thought for a minute...

The 500,000 copies of Casino Royale were only for Europe. The last time I checked, this thread was about US sales numbers, not global numbers. Care to explain why BD would need to count foreign releases in with its US releases to compare against only HD DVD's US releases?Wow. Pretty interesting coming from somebody who posted:
Wow, those 3 millions PS3's are really ripping HD DVD apart aren't they? I mean 60/40 split for the week. How could HD DVD possibly survive?! ;)In this very thread. I thought it was pretty bad when you not only used PS3s sold in Europe, but at least a good chunkc of those sold in Japan in order to make attach rates look worse for Blu-ray, yet above you show that you understand how wrong doing things like that is. Care to tell everybody why you have been counting hardware outside of the US against US software sales figures in order to make Blu-ray's attach rate look worse, when the above shows how you feel about using figures for outside the US inappropriately?
I didn't think box-ins of one title that have a questionable effect to motivate a buyer should be counted.When one title is included it would only have to have the same effect as one of 5 titles (or 1/5th that total effect from 5 titles) included in order to have as much reason to count it.
So to date, there have been about 350k KK discs ...I hope this was a typo on your part and not another case of posting something as fact that isn't true, without a typo being the reason.

Those who want to claim a high number of add-ons sold in the US (or NA) and/or a high number of HD DVD standalones sold in the US (or NA) can look at what an HD DVD marketing company (Webersh and Wick) sent out on April 25th:

"First is that HD DVD titles are now at 998,059 units sold –"

Fortunately, trying to exaggerate the player sales will show low attach rates and trying to exaggerate the attach rates will show lower player sales. Helps keep some of the deception down.

--Darin

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
2 HAPPY FEET (WB, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
5 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
8 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $39.99)
9 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)
10 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $34.99)
5 DÉJÀ VU (BV, $34.99)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
7 ERAGON (FOX, $39.98)
8 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
9 HAPPY FEET (WB, $34.99)
10 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Looks like a rebound for Casino Royale if the numbers above are correct.

Home Media Magazine (http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10690) says that The Fountain was "the top high-def disc seller of the week, due largely to its simultaneous release on both the Blu-ray Disc and the HD DVD format."

******
In other sales news, Warner has announced (http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070523006337&newsLang=en) that "it is the first studio to surpass sales of 100,000 copies of a high definition title" with The Departed.

The most recent figures came on the HMM Q1 summary (http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10559), according to which 53,640 copies of the film were sold on Blu-ray Disc and 31,590 units on HD DVD. If that 1.7:1 ratio stayed the same after March 31, a fair estimate would be 63K Departed for BD and 37K for HD DVD.

Also of interest is that Superman Returns is #2 in combined HDM sales, and three other Warner titles are in the top ten (Batman Begins, Happy Feet and Goodfellas).

WHV continues to be the market share leader in high definition disc sales.

Slightly confusing messages from the Rentrak numbers this week.

Could there have been a rather big drop for Planet Earth HD DVD in b&m stores? Even if the BD version reaches the same numbers as the HD DVD which seems tough enough (considering last week it was at 66%) this ranking looks bad for Blu Ray. Either that or 3 titles ahead of Planet Earth indicates big (relativly) jumps for these.

Unless there are many stores out of stock on Planet Earth it's hard to see what could cause such a drop but it's equally hard to see what could have spiked a sudden interest in Batman, Happy feet and Children of Men.

The Fountain #4 on Blu Ray and #8 on HD DVD also seems to indicate a weak Blu Ray week although the combo format may screw up the comparasion for those.

If, and that's a big if, these ranks hold over to Nielsen I would think that HD DVD would be closer than 60-40 this week. Maybe getting towards 55-45.

WoW ...is there some sort of error?
Very bazaar indeed... :confused:

Slightly confusing messages from the Rentrak numbers this week.

Could there have been a rather big drop for Planet Earth HD DVD in b&m stores?
I wonder if all those people who bought the HD-DVD version of PE are returning their copy (after they realized if won't play in their SD DVD player) and these returns are now showing up in the numbers??? :p

I wonder if all those people who bought the HD-DVD version of PE are returning their copy (after they realized if won't play in their SD DVD player) and these returns are now showing up in the numbers??? :p

Well then you should also wonder why that would suddenly happen after 4 weeks and not after 1,2 or 3 weeks? Not bloody likely.

Actually this theory pops up now and then about different titles but there has never been anything to indicate that this happens as often as some seems to hope. A return (for any reason) is counted as negative the moment it's scanned back into the system. Which is done the moment the customer gets his money back.

Home Media Magazine (http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10690) says that The Fountain was "the top high-def disc seller of the week, due largely to its simultaneous release on both the Blu-ray Disc and the HD DVD format."


WHV continues to be the market share leader in high definition disc sales.

Something is funky in these Rentrak ranks. If The Fountain is number one then whatever it sold on HD DVD (#8!!!) would be enough to push it from #4 on Blu Ray to a total that's higher than the #1 Blu Ray. Just can't see that happen from that ranking.

Since the info about The Fountain being on top is from Nielsen first alert it's pretty obvious that Rentrak is way off this week.

What's interesting about Warner's top sellers is only one of those (Batman Begins) is just on HD DVD. It does pay off for studios to release in BOTH formats. I wonder if other studios recognize this?

What's interesting about Warner's top sellers is only one of those (Batman Begins) is just on HD DVD. It does pay off for studios to release in BOTH formats. I wonder if other studios recognize this?

One other; Paramount.

The rest are fighting for a single format outcome. The only outcome that will give HD disc the best chance of wider adoption.

Continuing this dual format nonsense beyond this year is just plain bonkers - IMO.

One other; Paramount.

The rest are fighting for a single format outcome. The only outcome that will give HD disc the best chance of wider adoption.

Continuing this dual format nonsense beyond this year is just plain bonkers - IMO.

Don't think so. We need all studios to go neutral - then consumers can choose the format they like best. We can't let studio backroom dealings to take that decision away from us ...

But that is all OT.

Don't think so. We need all studios to go neutral - then consumers can choose the format they like best.But this flies in the face of lowest cost, and most consumers don't know enough to be able to choose a format. They want plug and play, no thought required. That's why the plasma vs. lcd TV comparison isn't valid.

But this flies in the face of lowest cost, and most consumers don't know enough to be able to choose a format. They want plug and play, no thought required. That's why the plasma vs. lcd TV comparison isn't valid.

Well, that is assuming there is some leg to the hidef dvd at all. Its highly probable that they will not become mainstream - given only marginal improvements most people will not care about in their smallish flat panel displays setup badly.

But this flies in the face of lowest cost, and most consumers don't know enough to be able to choose a format. They want plug and play, no thought required. That's why the plasma vs. lcd TV comparison isn't valid.

If all content were available on HD DVD and BD. It would be a plasma v. LCD comparison. If only some channels worked on plasma and some on LCD, we would have the same problem......as HD DVD v. BD.

It will be interesting to see if the $19.99 Complete Matrix Collection HD DVD deal at Circuit City makes a dent.

Not huge numbers, and who knows if this even close to being accurate, but at least one CC CSR claims they got ~3500 orders at that price.

Those who want to claim a high number of add-ons sold in the US (or NA) and/or a high number of HD DVD standalones sold in the US (or NA) can look at what an HD DVD marketing company (Webersh and Wick) sent out on April 25th:


Good post. Here is one quick correction that I was burned with in the past. The IGN article incorrectly said Webersh and Wick, but the PR firm is actually named Weber Shandwick.

Was that a legit price or a mistake? I was thinking it was the latter, but certainly would have bought it at that price since I already have the ultimate DVD set with all the same extras. As is, I'm hoping to get it in a deal with an A2. :D

All studios going neutral only helps HDDVD, as it nullifies one of Blu-ray's main advantages (superior studio support). Besides which, it's easier to convince the board of one company (Universal) than it is to convince 3.

Was that a legit price or a mistake? I was thinking it was the latter, but certainly would have bought it at that price since I already have the ultimate DVD set with all the same extras. As is, I'm hoping to get it in a deal with an A2. :D
It was a mistake, but CC has decided to ship 1 copy to most who ordered at $19.99.

The eBay leeches that ordered say 10 got their orders cancelled.

All studios going neutral only helps HDDVD, as it nullifies one of Blu-ray's main advantages (superior studio support). Besides which, it's easier to convince the board of one company (Universal) than it is to convince 3.

Yeah. I don't see Universal buying 2 pages in Video Business and holding press/industry launches (Pirates) like Disney is doing for BD. If they did, it would probably be paid for by Microsoft.

Right. Uni would rather spend the money on putting out more HD DVD titles. Disney would rather talk about it.....so which requires more effort, and which shows more commitment? I thought so ;)

What was Universal's best selling title? Does anyone think it will hold a candle to the Pirates sales? Maybe they should do it Disney style instead? :o

Good post. Here is one quick correction that I was burned with in the past. The IGN article incorrectly said Webersh and Wick, but the PR firm is actually named Weber Shandwick.Thanks. I actually made the same mistake they did for that one. I got the email that was addressed from hddvdupdate@webershandwick.com. It wasn't signed at the bottom and I made an incorrect assumption about the name.

--Darin

In other sales news, Warner has announced (http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070523006337&newsLang=en) that "it is the first studio to surpass sales of 100,000 copies of a high definition title" with The Departed.

Wasn't there an announcement a while ago that Casino Royale sold > 100,000?

Somebody must be fibbin' then. Wonder who it could be?

Wasn't there an announcement a while ago that Casino Royale sold > 100,000?

No. Sony said they 'shipped' 100K.

Besides which, it's easier to convince the board of one company (Universal) than it is to convince 3.

No way one can tell without knowing the position of the respective boards....the 1 v. 3 is a bad assumption to make. That's a common mistake in perception ;)

All studios going neutral only helps HDDVD, as it nullifies one of Blu-ray's main advantages (superior studio support).

It may help HD DVD more, but it will help BD as well.

Besides which, it's easier to convince the board of one company (Universal) than it is to convince 3.

So why not convince Sony or Toshiba :p

BTW, an ex exec of Universal recently said until Sony & MS support the same format, the format war is not over. ;)

BTW, an ex exec of Universal recently said until Sony & MS support the same format, the format war is not over. ;)Maybe he was trying to get some of the pressure off of Universal. :)

--Darin

What was Universal's best selling title? Does anyone think it will hold a candle to the Pirates sales? Maybe they should do it Disney style instead? :o

I'm sure that Pirates sales have everything to do with the relative popularity of the movies themselves, and exactly nothing to do with 2-page ads in industry mags or parties for industry media.

What was Universal's best selling title?Probably would have been "King Kong" if it wasn't included with the add-on. Then some discs are part of the rebate for Toshiba players. But for sales figures, from this thread:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=839412

as of the March 18th data we got Universal's numbers were:

UNIVERSAL
1) Serenity: 17755 (04/18/2006)
2) Apollo 13: 14316 (04/25/2006)
3) Bourne Supremacy: 12965 (05/23/2006)
4) Miami Vice: 11355 (12/05/2006)
5) Fearless: 10004 (12/19/2006)

--Darin

BTW, an ex exec of Universal recently said until Sony & MS support the same format, the format war is not over. ;)

So I guess that means that Microsoft could end the problem - perhaps you and Amir can get together and promote the advantages of Blu-ray disc inside Microsoft and save us all a lot of grief moving forward ;)

BTW, put me down for 61:39 in favour of Bluray...

So I guess that means that Microsoft could end the problem ...


Having acknowledged that you hate everything MS and everyone who works for MS, I'm not sure why you respond to my posts :rolleyes:

BTW, an ex exec of Universal recently said until Sony & MS support the same format, the format war is not over. ;)

What does Microsoft have to do with this format war at all? If a Universal exec considers their participation significant, then Universal is worse off than I thought.

What does Microsoft have to do with this format war at all? If a Universal exec considers their participation significant, then Universal is worse off than I thought.

???

92,000 360 HD DVD players were sold back in the months of November and December. At the time that effectively doubled the amount of HD DVD players in peoples homes. How is that not siginificant?

as of the March 18th data we got Universal's numbers were:

UNIVERSAL
1) Serenity: 17755 (04/18/2006)
2) Apollo 13: 14316 (04/25/2006)
3) Bourne Supremacy: 12965 (05/23/2006)
4) Miami Vice: 11355 (12/05/2006)
5) Fearless: 10004 (12/19/2006)
Gotta love how Serenity performs - especially considering the box office result. Come on Universal - give us the full Serenity Trilogy!!

???

92,000 360 HD DVD players were sold back in the months of November and December. At the time that effectively doubled the amount of HD DVD players in peoples homes. How is that not siginificant?

That's my bad. Its been a long day and I forgot about the add-on. Statement retracted.

What does Microsoft have to do with this format war at all?

We can safely conclude that without MS siding with HD DVD, it would have been still born - esp. after WB and Paramount became nuetral. Apart from the XBox 360 add-on visible contributions are VC-1 and HDi. And later in the year you will see Broadcom SOC + Win CE based players ...

We can safely conclude that without MS siding with HD DVD, it would have been still born - esp. after WB and Paramount became nuetral. Apart from the XBox 360 add-on visible contributions are VC-1 and HDi. And later in the year you will see Broadcom SOC + Win CE based players ...

I would love to know the story about Paramount and WB being swayed to switch their initial position. I have heard Time Warner forced WB to go neutral. Never heard about Paramount though.

53 /47 Blu-ray for next data set is my guess

Beleived to be because of PS3. Doubt they ever thought it would tank as it is doing now ... ;)


I'm sure Toshiba would love one of their HD-DVD players to similarly "tank".

I'm sure Toshiba would love one of their HD-DVD players to similarly "tank".

I am not sure any company would want to lose $2B in one year on a hardware that has sold fewer than 3M units worldwide. The PS3 so far is an utter disaster for Sony :eek:

* The $2B loss in the Sony gaming division takes into account profits from the PS2 and PSP.

I am not sure any company would want to lose $2B in one year on a hardware that has sold fewer than 3M units worldwide. The PS3 so far is an utter disaster for Sony :eek:

* The $2B loss in the Sony gaming division takes into account profits from the PS2 and PSP.


1. I'm sure Sony and its stockholders will disagree considering that their stock has been surging since the beginning of this year. Sony thinks long-term, which is always a good thing.

2. Game consoles typically are loss leaders. Sony will make its money, and profits, on software sales in the long run, especially since the PS3 will likely have the life span of 10 years or so.

3. This thread is becoming garbage since people started packing speculation and BS into it instead of keeping the thread to hard numbers. There is no way some newcomer will go through pages and pages of BS in order to see the hard numbers, and the hard numbers favor Blu-ray decisively.

The last "good" page was 207. There's 8 pages of garbage.

The last "good" page was 207. There's 8 pages of garbage.

The HD-DVD supporters can't stand the fact that every week Blu-ray continues to sell more titles than Hd-DVD no matter what. Oh well. If the mods don't want to stop the nonsense, who am i to complain.

Doubt they ever thought it would tank as it is doing now

It's hard to say that something that sells 3MM units "tanked", but I believe that what is happening in Blu-ray right now is NOT the bill-of-goods that was sold to all the studios by the BDA. First, they undoubtedly expected (and were probably promised) twice the install base. And then, there is the unimaginable. There is no way, no how, that anyone could have imagined that there would be an average of 1/2 to 1 BD sale PER UNIT. Give the BDA huge credit for selling the heck out of it and convincing some very smart people that Blu-ray would eat HD DVD's lunch. They are VERRYYY good at that, as we all know.

And later in the year you will see Broadcom SOC + Win CE based players ...

That press release said 2Q 2007. Have there been announcements I missed?

Not if their earlier version had a dominating presense. Its as if iPods suddenly started selling less than Sansa.

Oh, this is all OT. If you want to continue the discussion, you can do so at vgchartz.

Why do you keep fanning the OT and then try to retreat behind "but that's OT" after resorting to ultra partisan rhetoric like that?

Toshiba would wish they had all their SKU's combined sell as many as the PS3 have. They'll just have to be content with helping pay for it's Cell CPU and whatever return they're making off it, if any. ;)

The HD-DVD supporters can't stand the fact that every week Blu-ray continues to sell more titles than Hd-DVD no matter what.

Actually, to be perfectly straight about it, what HD DVD supporters can't stand is knowing that Blu-ray only sells 1.5-2x the numbers of discs despite the massive lopsided advantage it has, and that if all the studios were neutral, there would be no Blu-ray. But they aren't, and there is, and that's the way it goes.

Enough of the off topic post please stay on topic.

So, looks like HMM didn't publish the weekly market shares with the top seller, this week ... :(

My vote is for 55:45 and YTD market share to fall 1% for BD. We have had the same % for 4 weeks now. Has to move at some point !!

This week's prediction:

BD 62:38 HDDVD

I don't think you can count the PS3 along with the stand alone players. Many who purchase a PS3 will have no interest in using it for anything but games.

I wonder how the numbers would break down if you only counted stand alone players. I know some would argue that you would need to count the 360 add on, as people buy it for the sole purpose of playing HD DVD, but even without, I would wager that Toshiba has sold more stand alone players than Sony, Philips, Pioneer, Panasonic, and Samsung have combined. My guess is that a staggering percentage of BD players out there are PS3's, which makes the waters murky, as no one really knows how many PS3 owners will actually ever buy a movie to play on it.

I don't think you can count the PS3 along with the stand alone players. Many who purchase a PS3 will have no interest in using it for anything but games.

I agree, besides the people in this forum, few others are interested in the PS3 as a Blu-ray player. Just look at the Ps3forums, very few people frequent the BluRay area, and when I saw one Bluray fan promoting the BluRay day on April on the main PS3Forum area everyone asked him to shut up and that many didn't even have HD TVs.

Enough of the off topic post please stay on topic.

Thank you.

I say 64:36

I think the POTC will give BD a bit of an edge over HD. HD got matrix, so that should offset most of the "gain" to BR.

Thank you.

I say 64:36

I think the POTC will give BD a bit of an edge over HD. HD got matrix, so that should offset most of the "gain" to BR.

This weeks numbers will end on 5/20 so they will not include the movies you listed. Care to change your ratio?

This weeks numbers will end on 5/20 so they will not include the movies you listed. Care to change your ratio?

Oops. i thought we were doing it from the 5/21 to 5/27 :o If that's the case, I say the ratio will hold constant at 58:42 or whatever the previous week ratio was.

I'll go for 63:37 BD>HD-DVD

TOP HD DVD TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
2 HAPPY FEET (WB, $39.99)
3 CHILDREN OF MEN (UNI, $39.98)
4 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
5 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
6 SERENITY (UNI, $29.98)
7 SMOKIN' ACES (UNI, $39.98)
8 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $39.99)
9 THE GOOD SHEPHERD (UNI, $39.98)
10 DREAMGIRLS (DW/PAR, $39.99)


TOP Blu-Ray TITLES FOR WEEK ENDED 5/20/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM (FOX, $39.98)
4 THE FOUNTAIN (WB, $34.99)
5 DÉJÀ VU (BV, $34.99)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)
7 ERAGON (FOX, $39.98)
8 THE ROAD WARRIOR (WB, $28.99)
9 HAPPY FEET (WB, $34.99)
10 DONNIE BRASCO (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.
Guess:

5/14 - 5/20 = BD 63:37 HD (1.7:1)
5/21 - 5/27 = BD 66:34 HD (1.9:1)

I’m going to guess a slight market share gain for HD DVD based on the fact that BB is the top seller. The logic being that it has pretty much been for HD DVD what The Matrix (one film to show off the video/audio quality and special features) was for DVD. Batman Begins is the top selling film on HD DVD (just like the Matrix on DVD) and is on most peoples “must have” list for HD DVD. Why would Batman Begins, which has been out for months now, be the number one seller for HD DVD instead of a newer release? Because new HD DVD owners picked it up to show off their new toy.

It’s possible many of those people walking out of B&Ms with new HD DVD players last week were offered free HD DVDs (CC offered 4 all of which were rung up at the register) to go along with their new player. I think many of them picked up a copy of BB as one of their freebies. If that’s the case then this week could see a slight gain for HD DVD, but the real advantage will come down the line when those new HD DVD owners weigh in on big D & D releases such as The Bourne Ultimatum.

The rest of the BB sales probably came from the Fry’s HD DVD sales last week where one could get a copy of Batman Begins for less than $15.

nataraj beat me to it, but I'm still going to guess 55:45 in favor of Blu-ray.

nataraj beat me to it, but I'm still going to guess 55:45 in favor of Blu-ray.

49:51 HD DVD.

55:45 Bd:hd Dvd

59:41 in favor of Blu-ray.

5/14 - 5/20 = BD 53:47 HD (1.1:1)
5/21 - 5/27 = BD 39:61 HD (.64:1) or (1:1.6) ... the Matrix effect for HD DVD

5/14 - 5/20 = BD 53:47 HD (1.1:1)
5/21 - 5/27 = BD 39:61 HD (.64:1) or (1:1.6) ... the Matrix effect for HD DVD
Hmmm... Optimistic.

Don't forget about Pirates of the Caribbean 1 & 2 on Blu-ray.

The Videoscan numbers are in at homemediamagaine.com.

58:42 in favor of Blu-ray for the week ending 5/20. [The week of The Fountain but before Pirates and Matrix BTW.]

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052707/

58:42 in favor of Blu-ray for the week ending 5/20.I win! Well, at least I was closest. The parade starts at 5pm EST, beers paid for by Toshiba.

http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/1125/520xi4.jpg

I win! Well, at least I was closest. The parade starts at 5pm EST, beers paid for by Toshiba.

Sorry to cancel your parade but you we're only a close second. Kosty knocked off his throne.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10610250&&#post10610250

Put me in for 58:42 BD

Does the YTD number ever change? looks like whatever happens to the weekly sales the TYD and SI seems to stay the same!

Top 10 hidef sellers

1 (-) The Fountain BD 100.00
2 (1) Planet Earth HD 84.89
3 (-) The Fountain HD 66.64
4 (2) Planet Earth BD 61.80
5 (-) Stomp the Yard BD 50.01
6 (5) Casino Royale BD 41.61
7 (3) Night at the Museum BD 38.23
8 (4) Deja Vu BD 34.96
9 (-) Digital Video Essentials HD 23.70
10 (-) Batman Begins HD 23.52

Top 5 BD
1. The Fountain 100.00
2. Planet Earth 61.80
3. Stomp the Yard 50.01
4. Casino Royale 41.61
5. Night at the Museum 38.23

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Planet Earth 100.00
2. The Fountain 78.50
3. Digital Video Essentials 27.92
4. Batman Begins 27.70
5. Smokin' Aces 24.95

5/21 - 5/27 = BD 39:61 HD (.64:1) or (1:1.6) ... the Matrix effect for HD DVD

I think you've been drinking a little bit too much of something :rolleyes: :D

Does the YTD number ever change? looks like whatever happens to the weekly sales the TYD and SI seems to stay the same!

That's because it's an average and there were times when Bd was leading 5:1 or 4:1 for several weeks (e.g. after Casino Royale came out)....

Thank you.

I say 64:36

I think the POTC will give BD a bit of an edge over HD. HD got matrix, so that should offset most of the "gain" to BR.

I think you're predicting by one week in future...this week there is no big blockbusters (or at least, big catalog titles)

Does the YTD number ever change? looks like whatever happens to the weekly sales the TYD and SI seems to stay the same!

Actually YTD has just gone from 68/32 to 67/33.

5/14 - 5/20 = BD 53:47 HD (1.1:1)
5/21 - 5/27 = BD 39:61 HD (.64:1) or (1:1.6) ... the Matrix effect for HD DVD


I aint mad at cha. :D

Consumers sure aren't very consistent, are they? For "The Fountain" they choose BD over HD, but for "Planet Earth" they choose HD over BD. Very strange.

Whats up with Batman Begins isn't that like a year old now?

Might be the combo factor (and resultant $5 additional cost) for HD DVD in the case of The Fountain. Just a guess.

Consumers sure aren't very consistent, are they? For "The Fountain" they choose BD over HD, but for "Planet Earth" they choose HD over BD. Very strange.

Actually they are very consistent. The Fountain is just another example of the BD outperforming the HD DVD in sales. Planet Earth HD DVD is the exception.

Actually YTD has just gone from 68/32 to 67/33.

Aha - atleast I got one thing right.

My vote is for 55:45 and YTD market share to fall 1% for BD. We have had the same % for 4 weeks now. Has to move at some point !!

Sorry to cancel your parade but you we're only a close second. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

:)

Orginally Posted by hd nOOb
Whats up with Batman Begins isn't that like a year old now?
Actually it was release last October...

fitprod

Can't believe I am checking out AVS while playing golf at Reston National with the sales team! Now that IS the definition of a geek :)

Guess:

5/14 - 5/20 = BD 63:37 HD (1.7:1)
5/21 - 5/27 = BD 66:34 HD (1.9:1)
OK. I was way off. :o


Can't believe I am checking out AVS while playing golf at Reston National with the sales team! Now that IS the definition of a geek :)
Yes, indeed. :D

Whats up with Batman Begins isn't that like a year old now?
I've said this many times, the weak sales indicate that folks are picking up a few discs upon purchase of their console and then just renting after that. Batman Begins must just be a favorite among HD DVD adopters. That or it's one of the only good HD DVDs. :)

I've said this many times, the weak sales indicate that folks are picking up a few discs upon purchase of their console and then just renting after that. Batman Begins must just be a favorite among HD DVD adopters. That or it's one of the only good HD DVDs. :)

But you don't buy a player just for one movie. You will buy others.

Can't believe I am checking out AVS while playing golf at Reston National with the sales team! Now that IS the definition of a geek :)
dude! let me see here.... Golf, Beer, Cigars, more Golf, Sunshine, more Beer, Golf and you are actually checking AVS :eek: :eek:

I have an excuse.... am bored at work ;)

The Fountain is 60.01/39.99 BD, which is what we've consistently seen for other dual-releases - DreamGirls, The Departed, etc. Almost all dual releases are right at 60/40. The PE sales sure are interesting, aren't they? It's consistently breaking the mold, and on (relatively) decent volume.

But you don't buy a player just for one movie. You will buy others.

Eventually, but probably only when a title you already don't have on DVD comes out -- this is why Day and Date titles always sell so well. You may also start replacing more DVDs once your choice format reaches a certain milestone that you think means it will win.

The Fountain is 60.01/39.99 BD, which is what we've consistently seen for other dual-releases - DreamGirls, The Departed, etc. Almost all dual releases are right at 60/40. The PE sales sure are interesting, aren't they? It's consistently breaking the mold, and on (relatively) decent volume.
Could be because Planet Earth costs the same on both formats while a lot of other dual releases cost more on HD DVD.
During these early stages of the war I think there are a ton of dual format supporters (and be it PS3 + 360 addon). And those can actually choose which one to get.

Looks like PE is going the way of Batman and Casino. I expect all these three to be in the top 10 or 20 everyweek for sometime to come.

Last week my assumption for YTD was 67.6:32.4. Now that the ratio is being reported as 67:33, it could be all the way from 67.4 to 66.5. But I expect it to be closer to 67.4 than 66.5 - given possibly low totals this week as well (seeing how well PE and CR are doing - we can expect somewhat constant numbers for these now every week). Here are the list of totals we get for various possible ratios.

67.4 15,909 11,521
67.3 24,120 17,467
67.2 32,510 23,542
...
66.5 96,766 70,072

My guess would be 67.3 given last week's totals.

http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/623/vsof8.png (http://imageshack.us)

BTW, the good news is AVS will be Nataraj free next week since I'll be on vacation :D

With Sony announcing 80.000 sold Casino Royale and Warner announcing 100.000 sold Departed basically at the same time it would seem like they included this weeks numbers to get there.

Combining that with the numbers posted for Casino Royale at 74.280 in April. My 4 weeks numbers add 7.917 for 82.197. It's likely though that the first of those 4 weeks are included in the Sony April total. In that case my last 3 weeks would give 5.767 for a total of 80.047.

Departed is a little harder since there are only percentages for 2 weeks of BD. Still using those and the 60/40 ratio reported it gets you about 6.000 copies for very close to 100.000 total. (EDIT: Departed combined was at 93.600 through April)

Altogether I don't think the estimated totals below are off by more than 10-20% for the 4 weeks. If i had to wager I would say 10%.

Using the numbers from post #6272 and putting The Fountain BD at 5.000 this week you get the following:

For last four weeks ending 5/20 (that's 4 weeks counted together)

33.628 Planet Earth combined
23.192 Night at Museum BD
18.673 Deja Vu BD
18.996 Planet Earth HD DVD
14.632 Planet Earth BD
10.847* Dreamgirl combined (3 weeks since release)
7.917 Casino Royal BD
6.605* Dreamgirl BD (3 weeks since release)
5.849 Smokin Aces HD DVD
4.242* Dreamgirl HD DVD (3 weeks since release)
3.874* DVE HD DVD
3.774* Batman Begins HD DVD
3.313* Alpha Dog HD DVD (3 weeks since release)

* means that there is missing info for one week. The highest possible number, meaning 1 less than the lowest known for the week, have been used for that week. So given number is on the high side.

If we could get monthly numbers for a couple of titles for May we could get lots of info out of it.

Problem is that with all the new releases next week most likely we won't get percentages for most of the titles that we have the last couple of weeks.

That's because it's an average and there were times when Bd was leading 5:1 or 4:1 for several weeks (e.g. after Casino Royale came out)....

Here is the true picture ...

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/1737/ratiosfe4.png (http://imageshack.us)

If we could get monthly numbers for a couple of titles for May we could get lots of info out of it.

I'll check this and see how that correlated to totals I've been estimating later.

On a weekly bases how much does it come to for each format - combining the numbers you have for these top sellers ?

Seems to me that the latest price drop from Toshiba should sell more hardware and that hardware should sell more copies of "Batman Begins". Also, I think those who get into HD DVD at this point because of "The Matrix" should end up with a good attach rate for BB. It would be nice if we could somehow track the number of copies of BB that sell each week.

--Darin

But you don't buy a player just for one movie. You will buy others.

Yes, but it is one of the hot HD DVD movies which is at least temporaily HD DVD exclusive. Since most people who have HD DVD players already own Batman Begins it is safe to assume that alot of new HD DVD players are being sold with Batman Begins

The Fountain is 60.01/39.99 BD, which is what we've consistently seen for other dual-releases - DreamGirls, The Departed, etc. Almost all dual releases are right at 60/40. The PE sales sure are interesting, aren't they? It's consistently breaking the mold, and on (relatively) decent volume.

Since the High Definition movie market is so small dual format owners can push sales one way or the other. Since many HD DVD movies are combo formats dual format owners tend to go Blu-Ray to save the $5~$10 and to get disc art instead of the ugly flippers.

Superman Returns HD DVD flipper
Departed HD DVD flipper
Happy Feet HD DVD flipper
Fountain HD DVD flipper
Letters from Iwo Jima HD DVD flipper

Seems to me that the latest price drop from Toshiba should sell more hardware and that hardware should sell more copies of "Batman Begins". Also, I think those who get into HD DVD at this point because of "The Matrix" should end up with a good attach rate for BB. It would be nice if we could somehow track the number of copies of BB that sell each week.

That is a possibility.

My comment was more in line with "more or less constant demand" - unlike new releases where the variation between weeks in the first few weeks is rather large.

Since the High Definition movie market is so small dual format owners can push sales one way or the other. Since many HD DVD movies are combo formats dual format owners tend to go Blu-Ray to save the $5~$10 and to get disc art instead of the ugly flippers.

Superman Returns HD DVD flipper
Departed HD DVD flipper
Happy Feet HD DVD flipper
Fountain HD DVD flipper
Letters from Iwo Jima HD DVD flipper

And ofcourse Planet Earth is not a flipper and HD consistently outsells BD.

Interesting to know what dual format people within AVS are buying and why. Has there been a poll ?

So the way I see it the market share ratio has remained pretty much constant at about 1.5:1 through April and May (with some weekly variation of course). That means BD continues to widen its lead in titles sold every week.

Next week should be pretty interesting with all the new releases on both sides of the aisle.

I am really happy to see that Planet Earth has done so exceptionally well.

I think you're predicting by one week in future...this week there is no big blockbusters (or at least, big catalog titles)


Oops. i thought we were doing it from the 5/21 to 5/27 :o If that's the case, I say the ratio will hold constant at 58:42 or whatever the previous week ratio was.


lol... does this post count, even though the previous week ratio was a bit off from 58:42?

I'll check this and see how that correlated to totals I've been estimating later.

On a weekly bases how much does it come to for each format - combining the numbers you have for these top sellers ?

I think the best I can do is updating this one:

Here's some numbers comparing top 5 for the last 4 weeks against BD 5/1

BD 5/1 100% 34 620 copies
BD 5/8 48.7% 16 870 copies
BD 5/15 33.3% 11 544 (comparing top 7 would give 36.0%)
BD 5/22 42.1 % 14 583 (comparing top 6 would give 45.7%)


HD DVD 5/1 27.8% 9 639 copies
HD DVD 5/8 31.4 % 10 880 copies
HD DVD 5/15 23.8% 8 243 copies
HD DVD 5/22 31,8% 10 997 copies

It's anyones guess how big a share of the pie the top 5 titles normally holds. Another estimate from me would say on the average 50% but with pretty big variations adjusting for popular new releases. Better weeks probably means the top 5 is more than 50%. Next week it could be a lot more.

Maybe something could be figured from seeing the higher percentages for top 6 and 7 comparisons for the last two weeks?

I would put the YTD at 67.3

BTW, I need to figure out the dates used. I use 5/22 here only because of what I used previous weeks. Will get that figured out.

Seems to me that the latest price drop from Toshiba should sell more hardware and that hardware should sell more copies of "Batman Begins". Also, I think those who get into HD DVD at this point because of "The Matrix" should end up with a good attach rate for BB. It would be nice if we could somehow track the number of copies of BB that sell each week.

--Darin

Using my estimates I would put Batman between 600-1200 copies a week lately. On average probably clearly under 1000. So it would seem certain that there are a lot of HD DVD player buyers not getting Batman.

BTW, the good news is AVS will be Nataraj free next week since I'll be on vacation :D
That IS good news!

Hugs ;)

Enjoy your vacation, Nat.

Whats up with Batman Begins isn't that like a year old now?

The interesting thing about this is that it indicates fresh player sales.

The interesting thing about this is that it indicates fresh player sales.

It indicates that Frys had a sale which included Batman Begins for a very cheap price.

Since the High Definition movie market is so small dual format owners can push sales one way or the other. Since many HD DVD movies are combo formats dual format owners tend to go Blu-Ray to save the $5~$10 and to get disc art instead of the ugly flippers.

Superman Returns HD DVD flipper
Departed HD DVD flipper
Happy Feet HD DVD flipper
Fountain HD DVD flipper
Letters from Iwo Jima HD DVD flipper

Was Dreamgirls a flipper? Though I do tend to agree. I have seen a lot of format neutral people choose the Blu-ray over the HD DVD because of the Flipper Tax.

Perhaps the fact that Batman was part of that Warner promotion helped increase its sales in the short term?

Was Dreamgirls a flipper? Though I do tend to agree. I have seen a lot of format neutral people choose the Blu-ray over the HD DVD because of the Flipper Tax.

Dreamgirls wasn't a flipper, both versions were two disc editions. I don't know what the sales % are for Dreamgirls among both formats

Edit: nm I missed the numbers up top. So the BR version of Dreamgirls did sell better.