The Fountain is 60.01/39.99 BD, which is what we've consistently seen for other dual-releases - DreamGirls, The Departed, etc. Almost all dual releases are right at 60/40. The PE sales sure are interesting, aren't they? It's consistently breaking the mold, and on (relatively) decent volume.

I think the reason is most PS3 owners want to play games or watch action flicks not gain knowledge about the planet. ;)

Could be because Planet Earth costs the same on both formats while a lot of other dual releases cost more on HD DVD.
During these early stages of the war I think there are a ton of dual format supporters (and be it PS3 + 360 addon). And those can actually choose which one to get.

I studied the detailed Videoscan report a few weeks ago and came up with a few guesses (based on very minimal statistical analysis):

1. On recent titles on both formats, BD is generally 60-40 over HD DVD.
2. Titles that are more "action/adventure/etc" do a bit better on BD.
3. Titles of "higher quality" do better on HD DvD. [Simply my opinion of quality.]
4. Early sales are higher, relatively speaking for HD DVD, while BD does better in the longer run.

I believe that there is a slightly different demographic going on: BD (with more PS3 owners) appeals a bit more to a crowd that likes action, while HD DVD has slightly more film buff/quality-oriented early adopters.

I also think this forum skews both to quality and also HD DVD than the general nextgen population BTW.

Some interesting numbers here.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6446723.html?nid=2840

Newbury Comics, for instance, on May 22 sold 87 units of Blu-ray and HD DVD titles combined. Its top high-def performers were Curse of the Black Pearl and Dead Man’s Chest, which each sold 15 copies and placed No. 9 and No. 11 among all 35 new May 22 DVD releases at the 27-store chain. Next came Apocalypto and the four-disc Ultimate Matrix Trilogy (13 copies sold each), three-disc Complete Matrix Trilogy (11), Flags on Blu-ray (seven), Virgin (seven) and Iwo Jima on HD DVD (six).

On its past best high-def day, March 13, the chain sold 23 copies of Casino Royale and six copies of Layer Cake on Blu-ray

Some interesting numbers here.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6446723.html?nid=2840

Now THAT is interesting, although the sample size is so small I'm not sure whether you can project them to overall trends. If true though, it means the combined PoTC films (which ARE fcatalog titles) did better than CR, and apocalypto did GREAT :)

It also shows the strength of the Matrix franchise, which essentially wiped the floor with everything else.

Now THAT is interesting, although the sample size is so small I'm not sure whether you can project them to overall trends. If true though, it means the combined PoTC films (which ARE fcatalog titles) did better than CR, and apocalypto did GREAT :)

But it also shows a 27 store chain just sold 30 units - just one per store.

BTW, there is some small problem there somewhere ...

Curse of the Black Pearl and Dead Man’s Chest, which each sold 15 copies and placed No. 9 and No. 11 among all 35 new May 22 DVD releases

If both sold 15 copies, why would they be ranked 9 and 11th ?

Anyway, if comparisons to CR are right, Hidef may have the highest number this week. May be BD will pass 100K - may be even HD DVD.

MY guess that 9th and 11th ranking is measured versus the performance of all other movies/items sold by the stores.

I studied the detailed Videoscan report a few weeks ago and came up with a few guesses (based on very minimal statistical analysis):

1. On recent titles on both formats, BD is generally 60-40 over HD DVD.
2. Titles that are more "action/adventure/etc" do a bit better on BD.
3. Titles of "higher quality" do better on HD DvD. [Simply my opinion of quality.]
4. Early sales are higher, relatively speaking for HD DVD, while BD does better in the longer run.

I believe that there is a slightly different demographic going on: BD (with more PS3 owners) appeals a bit more to a crowd that likes action, while HD DVD has slightly more film buff/quality-oriented early adopters.

I also think this forum skews both to quality and also HD DVD than the general nextgen population BTW.

I agree. Planet of the Apes will sell more on BD, while Planet Earth will sell more on HD DVD :)

I agree. Planet of the Apes will sell more on BD, while Planet Earth will sell more on HD DVD :)

BS. For example this very week arthouse flick The Fountain sold way more on Blu-ray than on HD-DVD.

BS. For example this very week arthouse flick The Fountain sold way more on Blu-ray than on HD-DVD.

The Fountain is a combo so owners of both formats will buy the cheaper bluray version and many HD DVD owners will not buy it because it's a combo. Moreover, combos have been plaqued with many playability issues which is another reason some will not buy them.

MY guess that 9th and 11th ranking is measured versus the performance of all other movies/items sold by the stores.

Of course, but a tied 9th would seem more logical if the sold the same number of units ...

The Fountain is a combo so owners of both formats will buy the cheaper bluray version and many HD DVD owners will not buy it because it's a combo. Moreover, combos have been plaqued with many playability issues which is another reason some will not buy them.

Why does Universal keep releasing combos when they're so unpopular?

The Fountain is a combo so owners of both formats will buy the cheaper bluray version and many HD DVD owners will not buy it because it's a combo. Moreover, combos have been plaqued with many playability issues which is another reason some will not buy them.

I am not convinced that the combo is the kiss of death that some here believe.

The studios contend that their research shows that people like combos. I personallly wish that Blu-ray had them, I would buy them (assuming no playability problems).

Whats up with Batman Begins isn't that like a year old now? Its probably an indicator of strong HD DVD player sales. With the HD A2 price drop and more ads from CC and BB, this would be a title a lot of people who just bought a player would buy. Remember, for someone who just bought a player, the entire universe of released titles are all effectively new releases.

I would love to see more complete data sets like the Sony released March 18th Nielson data that showed 8 week versus lifetime sales rates, but I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell Sony would release data like that again. I hope I'm wrong though and we get a copy of the 2nd quarter dataset from somewhere.

Here is the true picture ...

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/1737/ratiosfe4.png (http://imageshack.us) Does not seem like Blu-ray is increasing its lead. A lot of movement there toward 1:1 sales parity.

I studied the detailed Videoscan report a few weeks ago and came up with a few guesses (based on very minimal statistical analysis):

1. On recent titles on both formats, BD is generally 60-40 over HD DVD.
2. Titles that are more "action/adventure/etc" do a bit better on BD.
3. Titles of "higher quality" do better on HD DvD. [Simply my opinion of quality.]
4. Early sales are higher, relatively speaking for HD DVD, while BD does better in the longer run.

I believe that there is a slightly different demographic going on: BD (with more PS3 owners) appeals a bit more to a crowd that likes action, while HD DVD has slightly more film buff/quality-oriented early adopters.

I also think this forum skews both to quality and also HD DVD than the general nextgen population BTW.


Lotta good points.

At this point I think we would all be more happy in the long run if Warner went HD DVD only. Why?

1) Then every studio is giving the most to their selected format, optimizing all it's strenghts.

2) Competition will assure reasonable pricing (including software).

3) Both sides (consumers) could justify the purchase of hardware of the format they don't own.

4) Hybrids will get a major push, dissolving consumer fear, as the 50/50 split in HDM makes consumers, realize there is one format in two different colored boxes. I'm sure they could get the prices down by the end of 08 for "the big conversion"

War over.

Some interesting numbers here.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6446723.html?nid=2840


said Brian Lucas, Best Buy spokesman. “Consumers don’t know which studio is supporting which format] :rolleyes:

I am not convinced that the combo is the kiss of death that some here believe.

The studios contend that their research shows that people like combos. I personallly wish that Blu-ray had them, I would buy them (assuming no playability problems). The major problem with combos is the price.

That should change by the 4th quarter.

The major problem with combos is the price.

That should change by the 4th quarter.
Why do you say that? Are you suggesting that Universal is planning to normalize the prices to something closer to what HD DVD-only discs cost?

Does not seem like Blu-ray is increasing its lead. A lot of movement there toward 1:1 sales parity.

Anything over 1:1 means blu ray is increasing its lead. Going from 2:1 to 1:1 would mean the rate of gaining the lead is slowing.

Originally Poster by rlsmith
The studios contend that their research shows that people like combos. I personallly wish that Blu-ray had them, I would buy them (assuming no playability problems).

The Blu-ray camp looked at a type of combo briefly, and decided due to te cost, failure rate and interest, it was not worth it.

As for the studios research showing that people like combo, the big question is who was asked?

Was it people like us, the early adopter geeks who are actually looking for quality of quantity?

Was it Joe-Six-Pack who upconverted SD DVD's are high def?

Was it Soccer Mom who's just looking for a disc to jam into their Minivan's DVD player to amuse the kids?

What was the price suggested?

I'd really like to see this survey that suggest that consumers want combo discs.

In an ideal world where everything is on a equal pricing level, it might work, but it's not.

Considering the issues that have be popping up with Universal's discs and the added cost, the whole combo deal has backfired. (Assuming TotalHD actually shows up, it will backfire as well, due to the added cost...)

fitprod

Does the YTD number ever change? looks like whatever happens to the weekly sales the TYD and SI seems to stay the same!

Plasmaman: they should, but my guess is that we are talking really , really bad sales numbers. Don’t forget two things will affect how much YTD and SI will change each week
1) how far they are from the weekly ratios (i.e. if the old one was 60:40 if the additional week was 50:50 there would be more of an effect then if it was 55:45
2) the size of the week (total) so let’s say we had 60:40 and 50:50 if the week and the previous are the same size then the new ratio will be 55:45 (i.e. if it was 100k both we get 60+50=110 and 40+50=90 so the new ratio is 110:90=55:45) on the other hand if it is 1/4 it will become 58:42 (i.e. if the 60:40 is for 400 disks and 50:50 for 100 we get 240+50:160+50 -> 290:210 -> 58:42

I am not convinced that the combo is the kiss of death that some here believe.

The studios contend that their research shows that people like combos. I personallly wish that Blu-ray had them, I would buy them (assuming no playability problems).

I have no problem with the concept of combos, the problem is price, playability issues and the fact that I am not given the option to buy just the HD DVD absent the old DVD technology.

Universal CEO made the comment IIRC that Universal's revised combo strategy would be new day and date releases would be combos, but catalog HD DVD releases would be HD DVD only. Combo pricing will likely trend down to new release DVD levels by the fall when HD DVD penetration increases. Right now retailers are really controlling combo pricing and have no incentive to reduce price and maximize/balance sales & profits until player volumes increase a bit more. The combo manufacturing cost difference over a DL30 disc is much less than the retail cost difference.

BTW, the good news is AVS will be Nataraj free next week since I'll be on vacation

probably late, but have fun

Anything over 1:1 means blu ray is increasing its lead. Going from 2:1 to 1:1 would mean the rate of gaining the lead is slowing.

Not quite so. Blu Ray's current lead is 57:43 since inception. If, for example, Blue Ray out sells HD DVD 52:48 next week, they would be over 1:1, but decreasing their lead (on a sales ratio basis). :)

Combo pricing will likely trend down to new release DVD levels by the fall when HD DVD penetration increases. Right now retailers are really controlling combo pricing and have no incentive to reduce price and maximize/balance sales & profits until player volumes increase a bit more.There is a reason that MSRP starts with M instead of R (Manufacturer's Suggest Retail Price instead of Retailer's Suggested Retail Price). Who really controls the MSRP for Universal's discs, the retailers, or Universal? Are you getting your information about combo pricing likely changing by the 4th quarter from insiders, or are you just speculating? If the MSRPs come down, will it be because retailers changed something about their markup percentages, or because Universal changed something?

Is your claim that all discs will come down and so will combos, but still with combos priced a fair amount higher, that combos won't get a price premium anymore, or something else?
The combo manufacturing cost difference over a DL30 disc is much less than the retail cost difference.It better be. But even if there was no difference it wouldn't mean that studios would have to stop charging a premium for combos, given that they are including another version of the movie. The CD and DVD markets should have made it obvious how little the disc costs have to do with retail pricing from the majors (if disc costs are 50 cents lower, it does not mean that the retail costs to consumers will be 50 cents lower).

--Darin

Universal CEO made the comment IIRC that Universal's revised combo strategy would be new day and date releases would be combos, but catalog HD DVD releases would be HD DVD only. Combo pricing will likely trend down to new release DVD levels by the fall when HD DVD penetration increases. Right now retailers are really controlling combo pricing and have no incentive to reduce price and maximize/balance sales & profits until player volumes increase a bit more. The combo manufacturing cost difference over a DL30 disc is much less than the retail cost difference.

Here's Universals secret plan to win.

Wait till you can make a couple of million combos in a month or less. Probably late summer/early fall.

Pick a big title due on DVD at that time.

Release it as a combo only. No separate SD.

Use the red box but put it in one of those outer cardboard sleeves to make it look as it should to J6P when he picks it up from the SD DVD section.

Have the same list price as a SD version would have.

Let the HD DVD promotion fund pay for the extra cost. Let's say 1 dollar extra manufacturing compared to SD DVD. That's a couple of millions out of that 150 they had.

Let the SD side of the disk start with a cool intro telling everyone how much better it would look if they played the other side. Info about other titles etc.

Include special deal if you buy a player soon.

Get more publicity out of it than any other news regarding HD has ever got.

Take a gigantic lead over Blu Ray in Nielsen ratings meaning Sony could never again publish any statistic that they sold more.

Sit back and reap the rewards.

At least that ought to be the plan.

The Blu-ray camp looked at a type of combo briefly, and decided due to te cost, failure rate and interest, it was not worth it.

My understanding is a Blu-Ray combo disc is not possible due to licensing. I could be mistaken, but that's what I've read.

Not quite so. Blu Ray's current lead is 57:43 since inception. If, for example, Blue Ray out sells HD DVD 52:48 next week, they would be over 1:1, but decreasing their lead (on a sales ratio basis). :)

Well, I was replying to someone commenting on an image. The image was about the weekly sales ratio. If bluray outsells HDDVD in one week by a lesser margin than it does another, it's still gaining a lead no matter what.

[edit : oh nevermind, I get what you're saying. Still I think the absolute numbers are more important for a lead than ratio. Those numbers need to be much higher for any platform to be 'solid'...]

Well, I was replying to someone commenting on an image. The image was about the weekly sales ratio. If bluray outsells HDDVD in one week by a lesser margin than it does another, it's still gaining a lead no matter what.

[edit : oh nevermind, I get what you're saying. Still I think the absolute numbers are more important for a lead than ratio. Those numbers need to be much higher for any platform to be 'solid'...]


Let's put it this way...if the weekly sales ratio this week is 1.5:1, and last week it was 2:1, then blu-ray is STILL widening its sales lead, just not as fast as last week.

In the same way, if you have two cars racing, if earlier the blu car is going 60 km an hour and the red car is going 30 km an hour, but then later the blu car is going 50 an hour and the red is going 30 an hour, then the lead of the blu car will continue to widen, just not as fast. Any way you look at it, the blu car is going farther and farther away from the red car :p

Here's Universals secret plan to win.

A nice plan.

I've wondered, too, whether Universal is contemplating a combo-only release of some great new movie. That would certainly jack up the sales of HD DVD. I would like the plan even better, though, if they just made it a two-disc set -- one disc with SD and one disc with HD. After all, SD discs just aren't that expensive . . . :cool:

Let's put it this way...if the weekly sales ratio this week is 1.5:1, and last week it was 2:1, then blu-ray is STILL widening its sales lead, just not as fast as last week.

In the same way, if you have two cars racing, if earlier the blu car is going 60 km an hour and the red car is going 30 km an hour, but then later the blu car is going 50 an hour and the red is going 30 an hour, then the lead of the blu car will continue to widen, just not as fast. Any way you look at it, the blu car is going farther and farther away from the red car :p

Except that analogy has no place here. There is no clear finish line in this format war.

By the way, could you guys explain to me the importance of "since inception" numbers?

Let's put it this way...if the weekly sales ratio this week is 1.5:1, and last week it was 2:1, then blu-ray is STILL widening its sales lead, just not as fast as last week.

In the same way, if you have two cars racing, if earlier the blu car is going 60 km an hour and the red car is going 30 km an hour, but then later the blu car is going 50 an hour and the red is going 30 an hour, then the lead of the blu car will continue to widen, just not as fast. Any way you look at it, the blu car is going farther and farther away from the red car :p

And what happens when the blu car misses the turn and ends up off-course?

Here's Universals secret plan to win.

Wait till you can make a couple of million combos in a month or less. Probably late summer/early fall.

Pick a big title due on DVD at that time.

Release it as a combo only. No separate SD.

Use the red box but put it in one of those outer cardboard sleeves to make it look as it should to J6P when he picks it up from the SD DVD section.

Have the same list price as a SD version would have.

Let the HD DVD promotion fund pay for the extra cost. Let's say 1 dollar extra manufacturing compared to SD DVD. That's a couple of millions out of that 150 they had.

Let the SD side of the disk start with a cool intro telling everyone how much better it would look if they played the other side. Info about other titles etc.

Include special deal if you buy a player soon.

Get more publicity out of it than any other news regarding HD has ever got.

Take a gigantic lead over Blu Ray in Nielsen ratings meaning Sony could never again publish any statistic that they sold more.

Sit back and reap the rewards.

At least that ought to be the plan.

Nicely stated, that ought to be the plan.

The question is whether or not Universal feels they have enough vested interest in hd dvd format to do this kind of thing.

BD has Sony as a studio who we know has vested interest all the way thru the blu-ray chain and thus will use their content and resources in every way possible to promote the format. Does Universal or any Hollywood studio have that sort of reason to commit to the success of the hd dvd format?

The nice thing about the strategy you laid out is that it gives very strong incentive to standard dvd owners to buy a high def player. After all the mass market of standard dvd purchasers would be left with this combination of incentives sooner or later:

A) Upgraded to a new HDTV. - this is pretty much inevitable for most consumers, it's just a matter of time.

B) Own several of their favorite movies in high def, thru the trojan horse disk approach you laid out above.

C) Have access to fairly low priced hd dvd players at value retailers like Wal-mart, that would allow them to see just how good those trojan horse movies look on their new HDTV's.

That may be the single best chance Hollywood would have getting high def formats mass adopted over SD DVD, ie by piggy backing on the success of SD DVD.

The problem is that Hollywood may not see the financial incentive to finance that approach, esp. if they think BD may be better against piracy...

Here's Universals secret plan to win.

Wait till you can make a couple of million combos in a month or less. Probably late summer/early fall.

Pick a big title due on DVD at that time.

Release it as a combo only. No separate SD.

Use the red box but put it in one of those outer cardboard sleeves to make it look as it should to J6P when he picks it up from the SD DVD section.

Have the same list price as a SD version would have.

Let the HD DVD promotion fund pay for the extra cost. Let's say 1 dollar extra manufacturing compared to SD DVD. That's a couple of millions out of that 150 they had.

Let the SD side of the disk start with a cool intro telling everyone how much better it would look if they played the other side. Info about other titles etc.

Include special deal if you buy a player soon.

Get more publicity out of it than any other news regarding HD has ever got.

Take a gigantic lead over Blu Ray in Nielsen ratings meaning Sony could never again publish any statistic that they sold more.

Sit back and reap the rewards.What rewards? I'm serious. Unless Toshiba has given Universal a cut for the long term or some cash incentive, what rewards are there if Universal pulls the heavy weight to get HD DVD to win? How about Universal taking the above plan to Toshiba and/or Microsoft and saying, "If you pay us $____, we will do this."

And maybe they could get the professional pirates to pay them something to implement the above, since it looks like Universal would be doing those people a favor if they can get the format that the professional pirates would prefer (since HD DVD seems to have made it easy for them to replicate the content, after they get it) to win. ;) :)

--Darin

Originally Posted by jpb123
Here's Universals secret plan to win.

Wait till you can make a couple of million combos in a month or less. Probably late summer/early fall.

Pick a big title due on DVD at that time.

Release it as a combo only. No separate SD.

Use the red box but put it in one of those outer cardboard sleeves to make it look as it should to J6P when he picks it up from the SD DVD section.

Have the same list price as a SD version would have.

Let the HD DVD promotion fund pay for the extra cost. Let's say 1 dollar extra manufacturing compared to SD DVD. That's a couple of millions out of that 150 they had.

Let the SD side of the disk start with a cool intro telling everyone how much better it would look if they played the other side. Info about other titles etc.

Include special deal if you buy a player soon.

Get more publicity out of it than any other news regarding HD has ever got.

Take a gigantic lead over Blu Ray in Nielsen ratings meaning Sony could never again publish any statistic that they sold more.

Sit back and reap the rewards.

Except judging by this summer's slate Universal doesn't have a title that would make this approach workable. Evan Almighty might be successful, but do you see buzz about it?

Plus imagine all the defects, people putting the discs in the wrong side up, etc. Plus combo discs are the most expensive of both formats to produce.

Meanwhile they get walloped by Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End, etc.

And what happens when the blu car misses the turn and ends up off-course?

Since it's a larger, better built vehicle it plows into the red car and crushes it like a beer can and keeps on going.

Whats with the "Only 3 studios support HD DVD" myth when my HD DVD collection shows twice as many. Universal, Studio Canal, Warner Bros, Weinstein, Paramount, Dreamworks. And yes HD DVD is 1080p

Anyone else laugh when they see this sig? Weinstein is not a major studio. Paramount and Dreamworks are the same. Studio Canal? How many people want to import, much less pay the additional cost? Can you walk into a Best Buy or Walmart and buy a Studio Canal title?
Misleading, just like the rest of HD DVD's existence.

Combo disks are the highest price, but not the most expensive to product. That distinction belongs to the 50GB BD disks - and by a big margin at that.....

Since it's a larger, better built vehicle it plows into the red car and crushes it like a beer can and keeps on going.



Anyone else laugh when they see this sig? Weinstein is not a major studio. Paramount and Dreamworks are the same. Studio Canal? How many people want to import, much less pay the additional cost? Can you walk into a Best Buy or Walmart and buy a Studio Canal title?
Misleading, just like the rest of HD DVD's existence.

Owning both formats really opens your eyes to just how childish fanboys on either side can be. :rolleyes:

Let's put it this way...if the weekly sales ratio this week is 1.5:1, and last week it was 2:1, then blu-ray is STILL widening its sales lead, just not as fast as last week.

In the same way, if you have two cars racing, if earlier the blu car is going 60 km an hour and the red car is going 30 km an hour, but then later the blu car is going 50 an hour and the red is going 30 an hour, then the lead of the blu car will continue to widen, just not as fast. Any way you look at it, the blu car is going farther and farther away from the red car :p

Um, no. To watch the red and blue lines pinching closer together and rationalize it as good new for BR is a fantasy.

Your analogy stops short of one possible outcome. That the speed of BR doesn't stop dropping at a 1:1 ratio, at which point HD DVD would begin to make up ground. It also doesn't address the fact that the BR car requires a 1000 hp engine to maintain its lead over the 100 hp HD DVD car. But those points are less important than the fact that this isn't a race with a finish line. If BR and HD DVD were to reach and maintain 1:1 forever, the fact that there were more BR discs sold in the past that HD DVD can never regain is not a consideration for the studios. Studio decisions will be made on present and future sales. Since-conception figures are interesting talking points, but the current ratio and outlook for the future are the numbers that matter.

So, BR is NOT widening its lead, unless you think mathematical semantics are going to win the war.

Every time HD DVD shows it's doing better, out pop the analogies, Universal bashing, and combo-disk grumbles. It's like the HD DVD bashers are always ready with that ice-water in case the news is good.

Yes Sony/Disney has got a few more "biggies" up their sleeve, but there is nothing more fickle than the film-industry, so it would be foolish to think that only Sony can make a hit or will have an endless supply in the future. I trust never in our wildest dreams would we have picked "Planet Earth" to be a big seller.

I trust never in our wildest dreams would we have picked "Planet Earth" to be a big seller.
Yeah, I'm impressed by its staying power on the charts. Planet Earth on HD DVD is currently the #1 hi-def seller at Amazon in the DVD section, beating out the supposed big guns Pirates of the Caribbean and Matrix:

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Pix/AmazonHiDefSoftware_2007-05-27.jpg

If you include all DVDs, it's currently #8 overall, with the DVD version of Planet Earth in the #1 spot.

Except that analogy has no place here. There is no clear finish line in this format war.

By the way, could you guys explain to me the importance of "since inception" numbers?

I think the analogy is pretty much dead on. blu ray has the lead and as long as blu ray outsells HD DVD, it's gaining lead, too.

Um, no. To watch the red and blue lines pinching closer together and rationalize it as good new for BR is a fantasy.

Your analogy stops short of one possible outcome. That the speed of BR doesn't stop dropping at a 1:1 ratio, at which point HD DVD would begin to make up ground. It also doesn't address the fact that the BR car requires a 1000 hp engine to maintain its lead over the 100 hp HD DVD car. But those points are less important than the fact that this isn't a race with a finish line. If BR and HD DVD were to reach and maintain 1:1 forever, the fact that there were more BR discs sold in the past that HD DVD can never regain is not a consideration for the studios. Studio decisions will be made on present and future sales. Since-conception figures are interesting talking points, but the current ratio and outlook for the future are the numbers that matter.

So, BR is NOT widening its lead, unless you think mathematical semantics are going to win the war.

It's not good news, but I think you don't know what these lines mean... HD DVD doesn't 'make up ground' unless the blu ray to HD DVD ratio goes BELOW 1:1, like 0.9 blu ray and 1.0 HD DVD...

Also, I don't think you can take the analogy much further than the basics of the sales, if you do, you start to bring up all kinds of other stuff.

Neither format has to kill the other to be successful. There is no finish line, but there's a point where either format will be fairly well 'accepted'.

BR is widening its lead as long as it OUTSELLS HD DVD, which it is currently doing, I don't see how you can get around that, it's not semantics.

[QUOTE]
It's not good news, but I think you don't know what these lines mean... HD DVD doesn't 'make up ground' unless the blu ray to HD DVD ratio goes BELOW 1:1, like 0.9 blu ray and 1.0 HD DVD...

Also, I don't think you can take the analogy much further than the basics of the sales, if you do, you start to bring up all kinds of other stuff.

Neither format has to kill the other to be successful. There is no finish line, but there's a point where either format will be fairly well 'accepted'.

BR is widening its lead as long as it OUTSELLS HD DVD, which it is currently doing, I don't see how you can get around that, it's not semantics.


I agree with you that there is no finish line. HD DVD just needs to stay close until there is enough players and demand that Disney and Fox feel it's worthwhile to be neutral.
There are to many ps3 around for BD to be killed. It will become a niche format if HD DVD wins.

I think the analogy is pretty much dead on. blu ray has the lead and as long as blu ray outsells HD DVD, it's gaining lead, too.



It's not good news, but I think you don't know what these lines mean... HD DVD doesn't 'make up ground' unless the blu ray to HD DVD ratio goes BELOW 1:1, like 0.9 blu ray and 1.0 HD DVD...

Also, I don't think you can take the analogy much further than the basics of the sales, if you do, you start to bring up all kinds of other stuff.

Neither format has to kill the other to be successful. There is no finish line, but there's a point where either format will be fairly well 'accepted'.

BR is widening its lead as long as it OUTSELLS HD DVD, which it is currently doing, I don't see how you can get around that, it's not semantics.

Uh, I'll ask again, since NO ONE has been able to answer my question, and yet people keep bringing these numbers up like they are important. What is the importance of that "since inception" number?

Uh, I'll ask again, since NO ONE has been able to answer my question, and yet people keep bringing these numbers up like they are important. What is the importance of that "since inception" number?

That's the least important one, I agree. But BR is still outselling HD DVD on a weekly basis, right?

That's the least important one, I agree. But BR is still outselling HD DVD on a weekly basis, right?

Who denies this?

To act as if this is the single most important factor in the evolution of HDM at this juncture, should that mean that you also think the PS3 has utterly failed as a gaming-console, and should now throw in the towel given it's miserable showing compared to virtually all it's competitors.

Who denies this?

To act as if this is the single most important factor in the evolution of HDM at this juncture, should mean that you also think the PS3 has utterly failed as a gaming-console, and should now throw in the towel given it's miserable showing compared to virtually all it's competitors.

I don't know, someone might deny it...

Anyways, it's certainly an important one, but of course there are many things to consider. PS3 isn't doing very well as a gaming console. In the US at least, I think HD DVD is doing better as a movie format than PS3 is doing as a game console.

It's not really smart to throw in the towel in any of these situations, many billions have been invested in all sides.

Anyways, the HD movie formats and current console generations really haven't even started IMO.

It's not good news, but I think you don't know what these lines mean... HD DVD doesn't 'make up ground' unless the blu ray to HD DVD ratio goes BELOW 1:1, like 0.9 blu ray and 1.0 HD DVD...

Read again. That's what I said. The analogy assumes BR remains better than 1:1 in its favor, which is an assumption that the current trends would challenge.

BR is widening its lead as long as it OUTSELLS HD DVD, which it is currently doing, I don't see how you can get around that, it's not semantics.

It most certainly is semantics. I can't argue that BR is widening total number of discs sold to date as of this writing. But I can certainly argue that in the hypothetical situation where roles are reversed, and HD DVD is outselling BR 2:1, that any and all previous sales figures are irrelevant to studio decision making.

Put the analogies aside. Put the fanboyism aside. Look at the chart that's been posted. Extrapolate the lines. Then answer one simple question: is the current trend good news or bad news for BR?

I support HD DVD, but I know what reality is. Read my posts during 1Q. I was blasting HD DVD for their poor showing. When BR shot past, I didn't try to sugar coat it. I cursed Universal for sitting there doing nothing. I stopped buying HD DVDs for a couple months because I thought it had killed itself, and I stated my grievances openly in these forums. That was the reality. I look at the situation today, and the reality is that HD DVD has recovered and is working towards parity, if not regaining the lead in software sales. You can choose to look at it differently if you'd like, but your personal perception of a widening lead is not the same as the people making the decisions about which format to use for pressing their libraries. They will be looking to see whether the current trend is sustainable or a temporary fluke. If the lines on the chart start to reverse, you won't see me here spinning it. I'll say it's bad news for HD DVD.

That's the least important one, I agree. But BR is still outselling HD DVD on a weekly basis, right?

Yes, it is. So? The PS2 is still outselling the PS3, right? So are you saying that the PS3 is therefore a failure based on it's performance as of today, rather than waiting to see what it achieves during its life cycle?

Anyone else laugh when they see this sig? Weinstein is not a major studio. Paramount and Dreamworks are the same. Studio Canal? How many people want to import, much less pay the additional cost? Can you walk into a Best Buy or Walmart and buy a Studio Canal title?
Misleading, just like the rest of HD DVD's existence.

:confused:

Care to explain why I have HD DVD movies with Studio Canal, Weinstein, and Dreamworks logos on them? Sorry, but the 3 studio only myth has got to end

And yes HD DVD is 1080p, so get over it

Except judging by this summer's slate Universal doesn't have a title that would make this approach workable. Evan Almighty might be successful, but do you see buzz about it?I could see Universal's I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (with Kevin James and Adam Sandler and opening July 20th) doing better than that one (and doing well). We'll see.

--Darin

That distinction belongs to the 50GB BD disks - and by a big margin at that

That FUD has already been put to rest in the insiders thread.
Combo HD DVD discs are much more expensive than BD50's.

Studio Canal, Weinstein, and Dreamworks

Again, Studio Canal: imports (we're counting US studios and products). Weinstein: independent producer distributed by Genius products (not a studio). Dreamworks: a division of Paramount Pictures.

It's like saying Pixar or Dimension or Touchstone are all BD exclusive. They are, but they are really Buena Vista.

Combo disks are the highest price, but not the most expensive to product. That distinction belongs to the 50GB BD disks - and by a big margin at that.....Huh? Link, please.

That FUD has already been put to rest in the insiders thread.
Combo HD DVD discs are much more expensive than BD50's.



Again, Studio Canal: imports (we're counting US studios and products). Weinstein: independent producer distributed by Genius products (not a studio). Dreamworks: a division of Paramount Pictures.

It's like saying Pixar or Dimension or Touchstone are all BD exclusive. They are, but they are really Buena Vista.

So do you care to explain why no Dreamworks movies were released until Dreamgirls? Either way, I though Dreamworks was owned by Viacom, the parent company of Paramount.

Either way, I got movies from all these guys.

Your analogy stops short of one possible outcome. That the speed of BR doesn't stop dropping at a 1:1 ratio, at which point HD DVD would begin to make up ground.
So, BR is NOT widening its lead, unless you think mathematical semantics are going to win the war.


here...let's make it even simpler.

Say there are two cars at the starting line and they both zoom off...

The blu car is going at 60 kph and the red is going at 30....so the blu car starts to pull farther away from the red car.

Now, say 1 hour later, the blu car drops to 50 kph while the red car keeps at 30..

Now, can you actually say the red car is GAINING GROUND?

Of course not...the lead of the blu car continues to widen and it pulls farther and farther away, just not as fast.

Now, if HD-DVD actually outsells blu-ray for several weeks running THEN you can make a case for hd-dvd GAINING ground, since the actual lead will decrease.

That FUD has already been put to rest in the insiders thread.
Combo HD DVD discs are much more expensive than BD50's.

link?

Read again. That's what I said. The analogy assumes BR remains better than 1:1 in its favor, which is an assumption that the current trends would challenge.

It most certainly is semantics. I can't argue that BR is widening total number of discs sold to date as of this writing. But I can certainly argue that in the hypothetical situation where roles are reversed, and HD DVD is outselling BR 2:1, that any and all previous sales figures are irrelevant to studio decision making.

Put the analogies aside. Put the fanboyism aside. Look at the chart that's been posted. Extrapolate the lines. Then answer one simple question: is the current trend good news or bad news for BR?

I support HD DVD, but I know what reality is. Read my posts during 1Q. I was blasting HD DVD for their poor showing. When BR shot past, I didn't try to sugar coat it. I cursed Universal for sitting there doing nothing. I stopped buying HD DVDs for a couple months because I thought it had killed itself, and I stated my grievances openly in these forums. That was the reality. I look at the situation today, and the reality is that HD DVD has recovered and is working towards parity, if not regaining the lead in software sales. You can choose to look at it differently if you'd like, but your personal perception of a widening lead is not the same as the people making the decisions about which format to use for pressing their libraries. They will be looking to see whether the current trend is sustainable or a temporary fluke. If the lines on the chart start to reverse, you won't see me here spinning it. I'll say it's bad news for HD DVD.

I'm not a fanboy of movie formats at all, I don't really even care for movies, at least not at all like I do for games. I own a grand total of 1 blu ray disk (I only own a blu ray player because I own a PS3), 2 DVDs (yes, only two, more that I made myself through a cam corder and more still in games) and about 30 VHS tapes (more that I made myself).

All I'm doing is saying it as I have seen it on these forums (which I browsed recently because I wanted to see what a blu ray movie was like).

Anyways, I agree trends can change, but you do realize that changing from 3:1 ratio to 2:1 ratio is easier than 2:1 to 1:1, right?

I wouldn't say any of the next gen formats are in really great positions now. If I remember right, DVD took off with quite a boom, after many years of niche laserdisk ownership. As time passes this old reality looks to still apply to the current day.

Once again, I'm more a gamer than movie watcher by far. I own the PS3, 360, Wii, both portables, and many older systems too. I care less for what movie format succeeds and what movies are released than which videocard company is doing better, which CPUs are put into devices, and how well Windows platforms are doing.

Yes, it is. So? The PS2 is still outselling the PS3, right? So are you saying that the PS3 is therefore a failure based on it's performance as of today, rather than waiting to see what it achieves during its life cycle?

PS3 isn't a failure, but it's not doing great. PS2 and Wii are like old DVD, they continue to outsell the new formats (being PS3 and 360). I really love to see technological progress, but I do think the price barrier and slow acceptance of HDTV is going to hinder any big boom into the next generation of entertainment.

here...let's make it even simpler.

Say there are two cars at the starting line and they both zoom off...

The blu car is going at 60 kph and the red is going at 30....so the blu car starts to pull farther away from the red car.

Now, say 1 hour later, the blu car drops to 50 kph while the red car keeps at 30..

Now, can you actually say the red car is GAINING GROUND?

Of course not...the lead of the blu car continues to widen and it pulls farther and farther away, just not as fast.

Now, if HD-DVD actually outsells blu-ray for several weeks running THEN you can make a case for hd-dvd GAINING ground, since the actual lead will decrease.

You know, who am I to argue? If anyone looks at that chart and is happy, then I'm happy for them. There's nothing this world needs more than positive attitudes. Here's to the health of all formats everywhere.

<raises champagne glass>

Combo disks are the highest price, but not the most expensive to product. That distinction belongs to the 50GB BD disks - and by a big margin at that.....

any actual info to remotely back it up?

Read again. That's what I said. The analogy assumes BR remains better than 1:1 in its favor, which is an assumption that the current trends would challenge.

where is it challenged? just because there were a couple of bad weeks for BD and so it sold almost as pitifully as HD DVD?

Put the analogies aside. Put the fanboyism aside. Look at the chart that's been posted. Extrapolate the lines. Then answer one simple question: is the current trend good news or bad news for BR?


what trend? the one of most points that show BD doing well? or the two three anomaly points (where we don't have the actual numbers) that are near or below 30k like the vast majority of the HD DVD sales. Yes it sucks when there are no good movies and the numbers are between 30-20, but with HD DVD that happens when it is a good week

This week should be interesting, but should see a return of at least 3:1 for Blu-ray. I'd say higher, but there was much more material to dilute amongst the rest but plenty that would appeal to the PS3 crowd, most especially the Pirates movies, and Apocalypto.

If Flags of Our Fathers had been the "Saving Private Ryan of the Pacific Theater" that many of us were hoping for, it may well have been up there, too. Instead, I prefer letters from Iwo Jima.

I'm WAGing:

1) Pirates 2: DMC BD
2) Apocalypto BD
3) Pirates 1: CotBP BD
4) Flags of Our Fathers BD
5) Flags of Our Fathers HDDVD
6) Matrix Complete HDDVD
7) Matrix Ultimate HDDVD
8) Letters from Iwo Jima BD
9) Letters from Iwo Jima HDDVD


Both Matrix sets are hindered by being much more expensive than individual BD's. I would be interested if FooF or Letters could outsell the Matrix sets, which I want to say they should, but many diehard HDDVD zealots have been starved for good action flicks, so the Matrix may fulfill that. WB should have released the Matrix by itself for a wow number, but that would have put the kiss of death on set sales most likely... I'm still aiming to get the Complete set myself, but holding out for a good deal with a Tosh player maybe... Already having the extras from the Ultimate DVD set means the Ultimate HDDVD set just isn't needed since most, if not all of those extras are in SD from what I've read...

Every time HD DVD shows it's doing better, out pop the analogies, Universal bashing, and combo-disk grumbles. It's like the HD DVD bashers are always ready with that ice-water in case the news is good.

Yes Sony/Disney has got a few more "biggies" up their sleeve, but there is nothing more fickle than the film-industry, so it would be foolish to think that only Sony can make a hit or will have an endless supply in the future. I trust never in our wildest dreams would we have picked "Planet Earth" to be a big seller.
A few more biggies is nothing more than a fickle? Interesting.
Spider-man 3
Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Live Free or Die Hard
Ratatouille
The Simpson Movie

And this is just like any other year, Blu-ray have more top grossing movies. It is not a fickle. Of course, the average HD DVD fan would then say "Well, those all suck, and there are BETTER movies exclusively on HD DVD." Firstly, I don't agree and secondly, the whole discussion is about volume no? Which movies sell more?

The movies listed above will only be available in the blue section come this Christmas. I believe people will notice. YMMV.

As for the car analogy. Business is different than a race. There isn't a finish line that says the format that reaches x units first wins.

However, what does matter is:

1. How fast each car is going and if the speed is going up, steady or down. You typically want the speed to be going up since that shows growth, as long as the initial speed was good, holding steady is OK. But slowing down is bad!

2. The gap between the two cars at present. The past is totally irrelevant when it comes to business decisions. Only current and future.

So, all that matters is whether the cars are picking up speed, what their current speeds are and much more secondary is how far apart from each other they are currently...

Volume, margin, growth....matter.

A few more biggies is nothing more than a fickle? Interesting.
Spider-man 3
Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Live Free or Die Hard
Ratatouille
The Simpson Movie

And this is just like any other year, Blu-ray have more top grossing movies. It is not a fickle. Of course, the average HD DVD fan would then say "Well, those all suck, and there are BETTER movies exclusively on HD DVD." Firstly, I don't agree and secondly, the whole discussion is about volume no? Which movies sell more?

The movies listed above will only be available in the blue section come this Christmas. I believe people will notice. YMMV.

Three of those are Fox titles so I would not count on them, if BD+ is the reason why Fox has quit releasing and with BD+ maybe not being done until Nov./Dec. ( no one has really said when, just rumors which says 4th quarter), it will be a little wait until they come out.

but many diehard HDDVD Nazi's

LMAO

Oh you Blu-Ray communists!!! You better watch or the Laser disc fascists will turn on you :eek: But the VHS anarchists are the worst.... not even the HD DVD nazis dare to challenge them....

Three of those are Fox titles so I would not count on them, if BD+ is the reason why Fox has quit releasing and with BD+ maybe not being done until Nov./Dec. ( no one has really said when, just rumors which says 4th quarter), it will be a little wait until they come out.

Possibly true. I guess we won't know for sure until they are announced. I believe these titles will be out before Christmas, though. Thus they can be counted. :)

Uh, I'll ask again, since NO ONE has been able to answer my question, and yet people keep bringing these numbers up like they are important. What is the importance of that "since inception" number?
i agree,these numbers dont mean noting,but bd flyboys will take it a run with it,cause they got noting else to run with.bd should have beaten hd dvd to death long ago,but it didnt,studios could go the hd dvds way anytime.they are not going to leave money on the table.when the bd camp starts with there numbers game ,it just tells me there worried about their format,its called fear!

where is it challenged? just because there were a couple of bad weeks for BD and so it sold almost as pitifully as HD DVD?



what trend? the one of most points that show BD doing well? or the two three anomaly points (where we don't have the actual numbers) that are near or below 30k like the vast majority of the HD DVD sales. Yes it sucks when there are no good movies and the numbers are between 30-20, but with HD DVD that happens when it is a good week

Do you have any understanding whatsoever of how many units of software per week each format sells? To describe one as "doing well" while the other is selling "pitifully" would make me think you do not. Either that, or you've picked an arbitrary number in between the two sales numbers, and arbitrarily declared that number to be the standard for "selling well." You're entitled to your own perspective, but you'd be better served by adjusting your perspective to that of the CEs and studios.

As far as good movies vs no good movies, I'm not going to go back and read through your old posts, but you can answer me this: were you making that argument in favor of HD DVD during 1Q, when there were no titles period, good or bad? If you did, then I apologize in advance for implying you did not. The fact is, however, the HD DVD dryspell has been resolved, and now we will see how the formats really fare against one another. One thing is certain - BD has not obliterated HD DVD as has been predicted over and over by the BDA and BR fans. At no time was a "slowly widening lead" ever mentioned as part of the BR strategy. The existence of this subforum, the existence of this thread, and your participation here prove that nobody, including yourself, believes the BDA's official claims of victory.

Uh, I'll ask again, since NO ONE has been able to answer my question, and yet people keep bringing these numbers up like they are important. What is the importance of that "since inception" number?


Based on these overall lead analogies and touting of "since inception" numbers, some people must be shocked they didn't release Superman Returns on VHS alongside DVD and the HD formats. How can that format be dead when it's sold so many units?

I wonder if Toshiba can break the 100000 mark for standalone sales for the 4 week period beginning May 20.

I agree. Planet of the Apes will sell more on BD, while Planet Earth will sell more on HD DVD :)

NICE.. :p

I wonder if Toshiba can break the 100000 mark for standalone sales for the 4 week period beginning May 20.
Hmmm... The A2 is now the #1 top seller for all of Electronics at Amazon.

How often does Home Media Magazine publish hardware sales stats? IIRC, it's only seen spotty reporting.

A few more biggies is nothing more than a fickle? Interesting.
Spider-man 3
Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
Live Free or Die Hard
Ratatouille
The Simpson Movie

And this is just like any other year, Blu-ray have more top grossing movies. It is not a fickle. Of course, the average HD DVD fan would then say "Well, those all suck, and there are BETTER movies exclusively on HD DVD." Firstly, I don't agree and secondly, the whole discussion is about volume no? Which movies sell more?

The movies listed above will only be available in the blue section come this Christmas. I believe people will notice. YMMV.


Amazing! You know the box office on films that have yet to be released? I'm sure Hollywood would appreciate your clairvoyance. I can see the Simpson's movie stinking out loud, and the TV show has been "jumping- the shark" for a good three years; so unlike Pirates and Spiderman, bad word-of-mouth could kill it.

Besides, your list discounts other studios have hits not on your radar, and anomalies like Planet Earth.

Also, say Universal currently has no "blockbusters" up their sleeve that they're milking the third generation out of, they know that right? Are they going to be surprised by what they already Know? What nobody seems to get is all HD DVD has to do is grow to survive, Casino Royall, Night at the Museum, & POTC have sold more disks, but they haven't kept HD DVD from growing, and they haven't caused PS3 or BD player-sales to jump.

Possibly true. I guess we won't know for sure until they are announced. I believe these titles will be out before Christmas, though. Thus they can be counted. :)

I don't believe any title is a given until a week or two before it streets and I get the word from those who get review copies that it is indeed on track.

And what happens when the blu car misses the turn and ends up off-course?

And what happens when the red car runs out of gas?

And what happens when the red car runs out of gas?
Can we switch to sock-puppets? I'm getting sick of cars.

Given that the red car is far more fuel efficient. It will run a lot longer than the blu car and running out of gas is not a problem :)

Given that the red car is far more fuel efficient. It will run a lot longer than the blu car and running out of gas is not a problem :)

Ahh, but when the red car breaks down there are far less people who make parts to fix it.

(This car analogy thing is fun)

Given that the red car is far more fuel efficient. It will run a lot longer than the blu car and running out of gas is not a problem :)

The blu car is just as efficient but it has a bigger fuel tank so it will go for much longer.

Not really, since the longest movies are still on HD DVD :)

The proof of the pudding is in the tasting, not the recipe ;)

(Originally posted by Plazman)
Ahh, but when the red car breaks down there are far less people who make parts to fix it.
(This car analogy thing is fun)

The blu car is just as efficient but it has a bigger fuel tank so it will go for much longer.

Let's hope these aren't slot cars. They were all the rage--for a couple of years. :D

Given that the red car uses less complex technology - simpler laser assembly, simpler drive architecture, no cell prosessor, HDi instead of Java. It is probably going to be much easier to maintain the red car...also parts will be way cheaper :)

So far red = Honda Pilot, blu car = Hummer H2. Chevy has more dealers in the US than Honda, Hummer however is very very expensive to fix (although general Chevy's are pretty cheap) :)

SUV is counted as a car sale. Right?

Amazing! You know the box office on films that have yet to be released? I'm sure Hollywood would appreciate your clairvoyance. I can see the Simpson's movie stinking out loud, and the TV show has been "jumping- the shark" for a good three years; so unlike Pirates and Spiderman, bad word-of-mouth could kill it.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which titles have the biggest BO potential. Hollywood doesn't need that guy to figure it out, they already KNOW this stuff.

SO just you know...try and catch up with the obvious. You don't need to be a clairvoyant to list off the titles that have the greatest BO potential. It wouldn't be too hard to make a similar list of neutral and HD-DVD (well, Universal) titles that will be movers either.

Amazing! You know the box office on films that have yet to be released? I'm sure Hollywood would appreciate your clairvoyance. I can see the Simpson's movie stinking out loud, and the TV show has been "jumping- the shark" for a good three years; so unlike Pirates and Spiderman, bad word-of-mouth could kill it.
Wow! You think that list required clairvoyance? As the above poster said, it is not rocket science. They are all $100M+, one or two possibly $200M+. But as I said, YMMV, feel free to predict which one of those will bomb.

Besides, your list discounts other studios have hits not on your radar, and anomalies like Planet Earth.
What? I only listed a few Blu-ray exclusives that willl do well at the box office. Yes, Planet Earth is a big seller. On BOTH formats... Remember Universal is the only MAJOR HD DVD exclusive. I think one of the reasons it is still high in HD DVD sales, is because their ain't that much other content to buy! Heroes and Battle Star Galactica won't sell millions of players. (But they might sell one to me, once they drop to $199.... But I think Universal will go neutral before that happens. :eek: )

Also, say Universal currently has no "blockbusters" up their sleeve that they're milking the third generation out of, they know that right? Are they going to be surprised by what they already Know? What nobody seems to get is all HD DVD has to do is grow to survive, Casino Royall, Night at the Museum, & POTC have sold more disks, but they haven't kept HD DVD from growing, and they haven't caused PS3 or BD player-sales to jump.
Universal will do well with Evan and Bourne 3, but sorry, I don't agree with your statement, or even understand it... "Are they going to be surprised by what they already know?" Know what? That their competition have blockbusters? Uhh...?

All HD DVD has to do is grow to survive? Nah... Not good enough. It needs to grow faster. BTW, so does Blu-ray. This Christmas season will be very interesting!

Can we switch to sock-puppets? I'm getting sick of cars.

You can keep using your sock puppet if you want =)

All HD DVD has to do is grow to survive? Nah... Not good enough. It needs to grow faster. BTW, so does Blu-ray. This Christmas season will be very interesting!

Well, yes they both have reach genuine levels of profitability, but how does one lose?
When people don't buy players and disks and the manufacturers don't see any possibility of that situation will change. That's not what is going down with HD DVD.

Many were claiming a mass exodus to BD due to Casino Royall, it sold to the installed PS3 base, but I haven't seen anything that suggests it measurably increased the number of BD owners. Also, todays day and date release is tomorrows catalog title (especially if you just bought the DVD a month ago).

<snip>
Heroes and Battle Star Galactica won't sell millions of players. (But they might sell one to me, once they drop to $199.... But I think Universal will go neutral before that happens. :eek: )
<snip>

Well, considering that Costco is selling the A2 for $249 and someone on highdefdigest just posted photos of a Sam's Club HD DVD display with A2s for like $243... I'd say $199 isn't that far off.

But why not just buy in now for under $250 and take advantage of the 5 free movie deal?

Well, considering that Costco is selling the A2 for $249 and someone on highdefdigest just posted photos of a Sam's Club HD DVD display with A2s for like $243... I'd say $199 isn't that far off.

But why not just buy in now for under $250 and take advantage of the 5 free movie deal?

this is clearly a good time for Toshiba to get players out there too. BD player-prices are nowhere near $249, they aren't all future (BD-J BD-1) proof, the PS3 is crawling along, and Fox and Warner are kinking the hose on BD until specs are in place.

Given that the red car uses less complex technology - simpler laser assembly, simpler drive architecture, no cell prosessor, HDi instead of Java. It is probably going to be much easier to maintain the red car...also parts will be way cheaper :)

So far red = Honda Pilot, blu car = Hummer H2. Chevy has more dealers in the US than Honda, Hummer however is very very expensive to fix (although general Chevy's are pretty cheap) :)

SUV is counted as a car sale. Right?

Do you have any idea of what you are talking about. I don't know of any standalone using a Cell processor, do you. AFAIK it is only in the PS3 which has been proved to be a very sturdy piece of equipment.

BD-J is much less intensive than HDi, it is just more complicated.

Simpler laser assembly/drive architecture, wtf, do you just make stuff up for the sake of it?

DVD = Ford Focus
HD DVD = Hummer H3
Blu-ray = Rolls-Royce Phantom

Is more like it.

Well, considering that Costco is selling the A2 for $249 and someone on highdefdigest just posted photos of a Sam's Club HD DVD display with A2s for like $243... I'd say $199 isn't that far off.

But why not just buy in now for under $250 and take advantage of the 5 free movie deal?

Because the deals are going to just keep getting sweeter.

Do you have any idea of what you are talking about. I don't know of any standalone using a Cell processor, do you. AFAIK it is only in the PS3 which has been proved to be a very sturdy piece of equipment.

BD-J is much less intensive than HDi, it is just more complicated.

Simpler laser assembly/drive architecture, wtf, do you just make stuff up for the sake of it?

DVD = Ford Focus
HD DVD = Hummer H3
Blu-ray = Rolls-Royce Phantom

Is more like it.

Do you really want to go with that analogy? If so, the Rolls Royce Phantom is luxurious but it is a very inefficient gas hog. The Hummer H3 lighter more nimble and uses less gas to get the job done. And cheaper to operate btw.

Well, considering that Costco is selling the A2 for $249 and someone on highdefdigest just posted photos of a Sam's Club HD DVD display with A2s for like $243... I'd say $199 isn't that far off.

But why not just buy in now for under $250 and take advantage of the 5 free movie deal?

Hmm. I don't think nilsp is talkin' us prices. Or if he is, how will he get his volts to match the 230v in Norway if the price came down to $199?

Do you have any understanding whatsoever of how many units of software per week each format sells? To describe one as "doing well" while the other is selling "pitifully" would make me think you do not. Either that, or you've picked an arbitrary number in between the two sales numbers, and arbitrarily declared that number to be the standard for "selling well." You're entitled to your own perspective, but you'd be better served by adjusting your perspective to that of the CEs and studios.

yes I know what the # look like. Do you?
http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/623/vsof8.png

let’s start with HD DVD
1) worst – 8 are <=20k (2 official and 6 unofficial)
2) best – 3 above 30k ( 1 official and 2 unofficial one of which was a buy HD DVD day)
3) median – low 20’s
4) max – mid 30


If you don’t consider it pitiful, I don’t know what you would consider to be pitiful.

Now BD
1) worst – 2 unofficial<=30 ---- where most of the HD DVD reside
2) best – 3 above 60 (1 official, 2 unofficial
3) median –mid 40
4) max –mid to high 60
yes they are not great numbers but it is doing well compared to the older format called HD DVD. The median for BD> then the max for HD DVD


As far as good movies vs no good movies, I'm not going to go back and read through your old posts, but you can answer me this: were you making that argument in favor of HD DVD during 1Q, when there were no titles period, good or bad?
no, and as the chart clearly shows, good or bad titles HD DVD does not sell well. Especially when you add in that every time European numbers show up you have a few HD DVD supporters saying “I am from Europe and I bought my HD DVDs from Amazon.ca so HD DVD is not doing as badly as it appears in Europe.

If you did, then I apologize in advance for implying you did not. The fact is, however, the HD DVD dryspell has been resolved, and now we will see how the formats really fare against one another. One thing is certain - BD has not obliterated HD DVD as has been predicted over and over by the BDA and BR fans. At no time was a "slowly widening lead" ever mentioned as part of the BR strategy. The existence of this subforum, the existence of this thread, and your participation here prove that nobody, including yourself, believes the BDA's official claims of victory.

I am not here for the HD DVD numbers. I think it should be obvious to anyone that HD DVD has almost 0 chance of surviving. I come here to see how BD is faring and if it has a chance of surviving or if this stupid war will mean we will be stuck going back to DVD

Anthony, you do realize that one year later that BD would be outseling HD DVD by a margin of 20K units per week is not what anyone in the BD exclusive studio expected for sure. So, with over 90% studio support, 90% CE vendor support and probably 90% of the marketing $ spent so far on HD formats (perhaps even 90% of all HD capable players sold as well), we are talking about 20K units a week - that is less than $500K gross revenue difference for software per week. Works out to around $30M annual difference - split up across Sony, Paramount, Disney, Fox, MGM, LG, and WB. We are talking about a virtual tie at this stage. The sales gap is pretty insignificant. That HD DVD is where they are (with around 40% of the market) at is pretty remarkable and probably a cause of great worry to Sony for sure, and Panny very likely. I can bet Disney and Fox are using this opportunity to get additional concessions from Sony - perhaps for life.

I am sure people wanted and thought there would be higher numbers on both sides (so yes for BD). The thing in BDs favour is that there is a big number of players out there, so that when something popular does come out the numbers jumps and the studio releasing it makes money (which is what a studio cares about in the end). That is why the CR week there were close to 70k and that there were times when it was 4:1. On the other hand look at HD DVD, good week or a bad one it can't go much beyond 30k. Even though Toshiba is losing money trying to make it “affordable”, even though they are giving movies away to make it even more enticing, people are not buying it and so are not buying movies. The supposed large influx of HD DVD buyers due to cheap prices have not helped. Every few weeks some fanboy brings up how cheaper players will come and people will buy them and the numbers will change or that this is just a temporary bump for BD by curious PS3 owners that don’t watch movies and will soon stop watching them.


But the truth is BD is outselling HD DVD which is why even with HD DVDs longer existence there have been fewer movies that have sold.

yes I know what the # look like. Do you?
http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/623/vsof8.png

let’s start with HD DVD
1) worst – 8 are <=20k (2 official and 6 unofficial)
2) best – 3 above 30k ( 1 official and 2 unofficial one of which was a buy HD DVD day)
3) median – low 20’s
4) max – mid 30


If you don’t consider it pitiful, I don’t know what you would consider to be pitiful.

Now BD
1) worst – 2 unofficial<=30 ---- where most of the HD DVD reside
2) best – 3 above 60 (1 official, 2 unofficial
3) median –mid 40
4) max –mid to high 60
yes they are not great numbers but it is doing well compared to the older format called HD DVD. The median for BD> then the max for HD DVD



no, and as the chart clearly shows, good or bad titles HD DVD does not sell well. Especially when you add in that every time European numbers show up you have a few HD DVD supporters saying “I am from Europe and I bought my HD DVDs from Amazon.ca so HD DVD is not doing as badly as it appears in Europe.



I am not here for the HD DVD numbers. I think it should be obvious to anyone that HD DVD has almost 0 chance of surviving. I come here to see how BD is faring and if it has a chance of surviving or if this stupid war will mean we will be stuck going back to DVD

If you think the difference between 20K and 60K means anything, then I suggest you adjust the axes on the graph to allow a line for SD DVD. You misjudge relative scale yet again by calling HD DVD the "older format," when we are one year past the launch of two formats that happened within two months of each other. Or were you confused when Sony announced that the format war would start when they said it would start? That would explain your final paragraph also - perhaps you were confused by BDA officially claiming that HD DVD is dead.
You certainly sound confused... saying you're here for BD only, HD DVD has zero chance, but you're here in the HD DVD & BR subforum, checking on the progress of the war, which by definition requires a minimum of two combatants.

If it was obvious to ANYONE that HD DVD had zero chance of surviving, then I dare say nobody would still be pressing movies on it, nobody would still be retailing it, nobody would still be buying it, and nobody would be here in the forum talking about it. I would also expect standalone player sales to be stagnant, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Perhaps you should edit your statement to reflect that YOU think it's obvious that HD DVD has zero chance of surviving, and leave the rest of the population out of it.

Finally, I don't have the slightest idea what you're talking about with respect to European numbers. No need to clarify. I really don't care.

I

If it was obvious to ANYONE that HD DVD had zero chance of surviving, then I dare say nobody would still be pressing movies on it, nobody would still be retailing it, nobody would still be buying it, and nobody would be here in the forum talking about it. I would also expect standalone player sales to be stagnant, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Perhaps you should edit your statement to reflect that YOU think it's obvious that HD DVD has zero chance of surviving, and leave the rest of the population out of it.


Bingo

Why would Universal have more movies for HD DVD than Sony and Fox have for Blu-Ray combined? Why would a neutral studio release more movies on HD DVD? Why would a HD DVD player be currently ranked the #1 selling movie player on Amazon in relation to all other DVD and Blu-Ray players?

If you think the difference between 20K and 60K means anything, then I suggest you adjust the axes on the graph to allow a line for SD DVD.

SD DVD has been around for years. When it was in its first year where its numbers anywhere near VHS numbers?

we are now in the semi finals, the discussion is which of these two will get to the finals to go against DVD

If it was obvious to ANYONE that HD DVD had zero chance of surviving, then I dare say nobody would still be pressing movies on it, nobody would still be retailing it, nobody would still be buying it, and nobody would be here in the forum talking about it.

not at all, that makes no sense there are people talking about LED projectors but they don’t exist.

Toshiba has nothing to lose, if HD DVD sticks around long enough to kill HDOM then they win because we go back to DVD. Warner, the same thing. MS has a vested intetrest into killing HDOM so that then they can push SD DL. Universal is being paid by their partners. As for people that don’t get it, P. T. Barnum said it best, “There’s a sucker born every minute”.

that is a stupid comment. SD DVD has been around for years. When it was in its first year where its numbers anywhere near VHS numbers?

we are now in the semi finals, the discussion is which of these two will get to the finals to go against DVD



not at all, that makes no sense there are people talking about LED projectors but they don’t exist.

Toshiba has nothing to lose, if HD DVD sticks around long enough to kill HDOM then they win because we go back to DVD. Warner, the same thing. MS has a vested intetrest into killing HDOM so that then they can push SD DL. Universal is being paid by their partners. As for people that don’t get it, P. T. Barnum said it best, “There’s a sucker born every minute”.

You're entitled to your views, of course.

I've said what I have to say about the current sales numbers. Nothing else to add. Good night to all.

Given that the red car uses less complex technology - simpler laser assembly, simpler drive architecture, no cell prosessor, HDi instead of Java. It is probably going to be much easier to maintain the red car...also parts will be way cheaper :)

So far red = Honda Pilot, blu car = Hummer H2. Chevy has more dealers in the US than Honda, Hummer however is very very expensive to fix (although general Chevy's are pretty cheap) :)

SUV is counted as a car sale. Right?

There's also the expression, "you get what you pay for."
Honda is known for very good quality (few repairs, solid reliability, etc.) - the Toshiba HD DVD player track record doesn't match Honda. :)

Back to software sales information:

From Video Business (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6446723.html):

Also, the $99.98-priced HD DVD Planet Earth: The Complete BBC Series is the No. 1 release of all time in that format on a dollar basis, according to label BBC Video, and it was similarly released on all three formats on April 23.

Considering The Departed sold about 40,000 copies on HD DVD (MSRP $39.98) , it follows that, as of now, Planet Earth has sold over 16,000 copies on HD DVD.

*******

Initial post updated.

Back to software sales information:

From Video Business (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6446723.html):



Considering The Departed sold about 40,000 copies on HD DVD (MSRP $39.98) and about 60,000 on Blu-ray (MSRP $34.98), it follows that, as of now, Planet Earth has sold over 37,000 copies (BD and HD DVD combined).

*******

Initial post updated.

Guess I wasn't so far off in post #6483. Had PE at 33.628 copies after last week.

18.996 Planet Earth HD DVD
14.632 Planet Earth BD

The article isn't crystal clear in what they are actually comparing though. It might be that the are only saying that the HD DVD version is the dollar winner against other HD DVDs. I doesn't actually say that the dollar volume is the highest comparing to both formats but I think it's likely that's what they are implying.

jpb123, I think you're right and I misread the thing. They are talking about "HD DVD Planet Earth" and "that format."

Hence, the dollar value is 40000 · 40 = x · 100
x= 16000

So it follows that Planet Earth has sold over 16,000 units on HD DVD, and we don't know anything about Planet Earth BD.

I'll edit my previous post so as not to mislead anyone. :)

jpb123, I think you're right and I misread the thing. They are talking about "HD DVD Planet Earth" and "that format."

Hence, the dollar value is 40000 · 40 = x · 100
x= 16000

So it follows that Planet Earth has sold over 16,000 units on HD DVD, and we don't know anything about Planet Earth BD.

I'll edit my previous post so as not to mislead anyone. :)

We do have some knowledge of the Blu Ray version is doing compared to HD DVD since we can compare them weekly. We don't have a definite number for 100% each week so it's not written in stone but I would be pretty sure that it is somewhere between 75-80%

If it hasn't already it's bound to pass The Departed in dollars for both formats with next weeks numbers. It should already be way higher than any Blu Ray only title.

Basically Warner is competing with itself in this war. :rolleyes:

If we could get exact numbers for both formats for this title we could probably figure out the exact numbers for the top titles for the last few weeks.

Basically Warner is competing with itself in this war. :rolleyes:

And, unlike format-exclusive studios like Fox and Weinstein, laughing all the way to the bank. With profit margins minimal to non-existent in this format war Warner may be the only studio making money from high-def media for the foreseeable future. I just hope at least one BD exclusive studio becomes neutral before Universal. BD can afford to lose one or maybe two exclusive studios and still be competitive, but a switch to neutrality by Universal could cause a chain reaction (starting with the AVS Forums) that would stall HD-DVD's growth permanently. :(

And, unlike format-exclusive studios like Fox and Weinstein, laughing all the way to the bank. With profit margins minimal to non-existent in this format war Warner may be the only studio making money from high-def media for the foreseeable future. I just hope at least one BD exclusive studio becomes neutral before Universal. BD can afford to lose one or maybe two exclusive studios and still be competitive, but a switch to neutrality by Universal could cause a chain reaction (starting with the AVS Forums) that would stall HD-DVD's growth permanently. :(

Stalling one of the format's growth is vital to the end of this war. Why would you not want to take the quickest route to that end?

Stalling one of the format's growth is vital to the end of this war. Why would you not want to take the quickest route to that end?

Because one of the formats will not be able to beat SD DVD?

Feel free to guess which one that is.

Because one of the formats will not be able to beat SD DVD?

Feel free to guess which one that is.

I know! I know! The one that can't take over current DVD production lines and doesn't even have DVD in it's name, isn't up to spec yet, and costs twice as much for a player. :p

Because one of the formats will not be able to beat SD DVD?

Feel free to guess which one that is.

Exactly. If HD DVD can't beat DVD on its own, then HD DVD coexisting with Blu-ray definitely won't be able to beat DVD. But don't let that stop anyone from hoping that the path of most resistance (two studios going neutral and all of the CE companies coming out with dedicated HD DVD players versus one studio going neutral) is the best way to go.

I know! I know! The one that can't take over current DVD production lines and doesn't even have DVD in it's name, isn't up to spec yet, and costs twice as much for a player. :p

I see your hand moving the sock, but the sound seems to be coming from elsewhere. And thanks for the laugh from "DVD in its name." I hadn't heard that one in a while, but it's great every time.

I know! I know! The one that can't take over current DVD production lines and doesn't even have DVD in it's name, isn't up to spec yet, and costs twice as much for a player. :p

Interesting. I thought it was the one that can't produce working discs on existing DVD production lines.

Stalling one of the format's growth is vital to the end of this war. Why would you not want to take the quickest route to that end?
BD has proven the following:

1. That even with 90% studio support it is unable to maintain software growth.

2. That even with 90% CE support it is unable to field a standalone player that sells in any volume.

3. BD exists today because of the PS3, that's it. It's in the same category of UMD and has the same future as UMD.

The only way for HD formats to take off is for studios to start backing HD DVD. Mass adoption requires cheaper hardware and backwards compatibility with DVD that only HD DVD can provide. The longer studios stay exclusive to BD the greater the overall harm they do to the success of HD in general since general consumers are not likely to use the PS3 or a game console as their primary HD Player. BD's greatest asset is also the formats greatest weakness.....unless Panny or Sony step up to the plate with a low priced player that people want.

While it is true that a game console can jump start a format, by not having cost effective standalone players that people want means that the format has limited appeal. Same thing that happened with UMD. JMHO, based on my analysis. You are free to make up your own mind :)

The only way for HD formats to take off is for studios to start backing HD DVD. Mass adoption requires cheaper hardware and backwards compatibility with DVD that only HD DVD can provide.

Since BD can reach mass market hardware prices (maybe a little slower than Toshiba, but come on...you really think they can't? It's not like BD players can't be made for cheap...it's just that they don't want to loss leader their hardware like Tosh). So that's a moot point in the long run.

As for DVD compatibility...what are you talking about? Only HD-DVD can provide?

3. BD exists today because of the PS3, that's it. It's in the same category of UMD and has the same future as UMD.



How can you compare UMD to BD? didn't we debunk this theory over a year ago?

BD has proven the following:

1. That even with 90% studio support it is unable to maintain software growth.


One minute people are saying that Disney and Fox aren't releasing titles and therefore aren't supporting Blu-ray, the next they are counted as studio support. You can't really have it both ways, so which is it?


2. That even with 90% CE support it is unable to field a standalone player that sells in any volume.


This is true, though not quite as true as you would lead us to believe. Obviously if you have 1 company producing 99% of the players for a format, they will sell more of that one player than the individual players produced by 5 different companies which are competing with each other. That is just simple math.


3. BD exists today because of the PS3, that's it. It's in the same category of UMD and has the same future as UMD.


This comparison is flawed on multiple levels, so I'll just hit the big ones. UMD:
1) Offered nothing over a DVD copied to a memory stick, in fact it used more battery power. Blu-ray on the other hand offers much better picture and sound over a DVD.

2) Was supported by no other CEs. This is a biggy as well, and in fact it is much closer to the state of HD DVD than Blu-ray. Right now 99% of HD DVD players are made by Toshiba, and 100% of UMD players were made by Sony. Blu-ray as you mention has 90% of the CEs producing players for it. It is true that the vast majority of Blu-ray players are the PS3, but since we don't have any hard numbers on Blu-ray player sales I am hesitant to assign a percentage.


The only way for HD formats to take off is for studios to start backing HD DVD. Mass adoption requires cheaper hardware and backwards compatibility with DVD that only HD DVD can provide.


The hardware required for Blu-ray is dropping in price at a sustainable level. The companies producing these players have to make a profit, since they won't be getting royalties like Toshiba. Do you ever wonder why no other CEs produce dedicated HD DVD players if it is really "cheaper hardware?"


The longer studios stay exclusive to BD the greater the overall harm they do to the success of HD in general since general consumers are not likely to use the PS3 or a game console as their primary HD Player. BD's greatest asset is also the formats greatest weakness.....unless Panny or Sony step up to the plate with a low priced player that people want.


The longer Universal stays exclusive to HD DVD the greater the overall harm they do to the success of HD in general. Your comment about consumers not using a game console is interesting since most Blu-ray players are the PS3, and the majority HD DVD players are the 360 add-on. Additionally many people used the PS2 for its DVD capabilities. I think it is really only AV snobs who have some sort of problem using a game console to play movies.

How can you compare UMD to BD? didn't we debunk this theory over a year ago?

UMD is a proprietary format for portable movies. The primary device for this is the PSP. Sony would have licensed it if other vendors would be interested. Again, the PSP was probably too subsidized for others to compete against...

BD is a proprietary format for HD home video. The primary device for this is the PS3. Sony has licensed it to other vendors, but they cannot compete with the highly subsidized PS3 and will soon have to abandon it. JMHO.

HD DVD is backed by the DVD Forum, not a single company. Sony licenses the name and logo for BD. I believe companies who were dissatisfied with the DVD Forum and their liberal licensing policies for hardware and were backing BD will be even more dissatisfied with Sony and once again start backing the DVD Forum. LG and Samsung have already made the first moves....others will follow. Soon :)

A theory cannot be debunked when the evidence wasn't there over a year ago :eek:

One minute people are saying that Disney and Fox aren't releasing titles and therefore aren't supporting Blu-ray, the next they are counted as studio support. You can't really have it both ways, so which is it?


.

You choose. Either one looks bad :)

BD is a proprietary format for HD home video.... HD DVD is backed by the DVD Forum, not a single company.People really need to stop saying this nonsense. Both formats are equally proprietary, equally open, and specs equally accessible. BDA and DVD Forum, both with a substantial number of members, allow any company or individual to join and participate in as much as they desire.

Sony licenses the name and logo for BD.A separate licensing company is being done, so that argument will no soon longer be valid. Did a CE company handle DVD licensing when it was first developed?

LG and Samsung have already made the first moves....I think you have the wrong reason. ;)

I see your hand moving the sock, but the sound seems to be coming from elsewhere. And thanks for the laugh from "DVD in its name." I hadn't heard that one in a while, but it's great every time.

Hey laugh all ya want, but the majority of people I meet don't know the first thing about hi-def media yet, they don't know there are two HDTV types, they mistake any flat screen for HD, and they don't even know a broadcast-standard change is pending. They do however know what a DVD is, & when they realize they gotta buy an HDTV, an HD DVD player is going to be self-explanatory. In 2008 I'm sure you'll see a lot of players getting bundled right into the purchase of a TV.

If Blu-ray could buy "DVD" and be Blu-DVD, B-DVD, or Blu-ray DVD, they wouldn't let the sun set on the deal before they coughed-up the $.

People really need to stop saying this nonsense. Both formats are equally proprietary, equally open, and specs equally accessible. BDA and DVD Forum, both with a substantial number of members, allow any company or individual to join and participate in as much as they desire.

There was a quote from a former Warner exec. who claimed the BDA was run like a cartel. They liked to control everything. This does not sound like open and accessible to me.

Do you know when the BRCM chipset will be in production for the cheap HD-DVD players?

Well, considering that Costco is selling the A2 for $249 and someone on highdefdigest just posted photos of a Sam's Club HD DVD display with A2s for like $243... I'd say $199 isn't that far off.

But why not just buy in now for under $250 and take advantage of the 5 free movie deal? Anyone have a guess when the probable increased standalone sales of HD A2s at this price point will start affecting movie disc sales?

I say 3 weeks from now. It took about three weeks for the $399 MSRP price reduction to start showing in disc sales, and my speculation is that the lower price points for the Toshiba HD A2 will lead to enough sales to affect the disc sales but it takes a few weeks for people to start buying movies past after they have walked out the door with their new players.

When are the next price reductions for Blu-ray players anticipated?

SD DVD has been around for years. When it was in its first year where its numbers anywhere near VHS numbers?

we are now in the semi finals, the discussion is which of these two will get to the finals to go against DVD



not at all, that makes no sense there are people talking about LED projectors but they don’t exist.

Toshiba has nothing to lose, if HD DVD sticks around long enough to kill HDOM then they win because we go back to DVD. Warner, the same thing. MS has a vested intetrest into killing HDOM so that then they can push SD DL. Universal is being paid by their partners. As for people that don’t get it, P. T. Barnum said it best, “There’s a sucker born every minute”. That's the purest expression of a sour grapes expression of a possible HD DVD victory I have seen to date.

Sounds very depressive. Dr. Kosty prescribes a purchase of a $249 HD A2 at Sam's Club with 5 free HD DVD movies so you can actually see that the future may not be that bleak.

I mean really, you can't really think Toshiba wants HD DVD and Blu-ray to both lose so double layer standard DVDs will prevail.

I mean read Aseop.

Universal is owned by GE. The world's largest company. I am not sure it would be so easy to bribe them to support a format if it was against their self interest.

My local electronics adn white goods store just placed in its advertising circular " HD DVD player $299, was $399. First time advertising any HD player. Talked to the local manager. Said they just sold everyone they had in stock. Small regional 5 store chain of white and brown goods.

They never lead in new technology products and they are quite conservative in advertising. They did not feel the need to explain HD DVD. They said in the ad copy plays HD DVD's and upconverts your existing DVDs to near high definition. That's all they said in the ad. That and the $299 price spoke for themselves.

My local CC just created a big new HD DVD display.

To me anecdoctally, HD DVD is starting to become mainstream. I think its only a matter of time before movie sales start moving because of the $299 or less street prices of the HD A2.

If hardware sales will drive software sales, we should start seeing it soon.

What happens if/when HD A2 sales start being close or exceeding PS3 sales?

Hey laugh all ya want, but the majority of people I meet don't know the first thing about hi-def media yet, they don't know there are two HDTV types, they mistake any flat screen for HD, and they don't even know a broadcast-standard change is pending. They do however know what a DVD is, & when they realize they gotta buy an HDTV, an HD DVD player is going to be self-explanatory. In 2008 I'm sure you'll see a lot of players getting bundled right into the purchase of a TV.

If Blu-ray could buy "DVD" and be Blu-DVD, B-DVD, or Blu-ray DVD, they wouldn't let the sun set on the deal before they coughed-up the $.

You know, I've heard of more issues with people thinking HD-DVD is just DVD in high-def and not even understanding that it's a unique format that requires separate hardware, whereas Blu-Ray has no such issue, and is easily identified as a separate product. There was a time where I thought HD-DVD was the name that had better potential, but I'm starting to think Blu-Ray actually will have the superior marquee value. At least based on anecdotal evidence. I don't think having the word DVD in HD-DVD is really any sort of advantage anymore...and if anything, actually leads to some minor confusion.

So I'd have to disagree with this sentiment, since I don't think it'd help at all, I seriously doubt BD would do anything to buy the DVD name.

If hardware sales will drive software sales, we should start seeing it soon.

What happens if/when HD A2 sales start being close or exceeding PS3 sales?

Unfortunately for HD DVD it is the software that drives hardware sales. That's why no matter how many HD DVD players are handed out for free (pretty much) on street corners, the titles people actually want to buy are still only on Blu-ray.

As for the HDA2 outselling the PS3 :eek: :rolleyes: . I'm guessing you got a little carried away with your speculation.

So, it will no longer say ' The Blu Ray name and logo are trademarks used under license from Sony'? Who is Sony giving these rights to?

There was a quote from a former Warner exec. who claimed the BDA was run like a cartel. They liked to control everything. This does not sound like open and accessible to me.


Do you regularly believe in heresay or just when it's anti Blu-ray?

Anyone have a guess when the probable increased standalone sales of HD A2s at this price point will start affecting movie disc sales?

I say 3 weeks from now.

If HDDVD sales don't reach at least 40k or so for at least one week by then, would you concede that strategy hasn't worked, either? Or merely that your guess was wrong? :)

So, it will no longer say ' The Blu Ray name and logo are trademarks used under license from Sony'? Who is Sony giving these rights to?

Eh? I see "Copyright 2006 Blu-ray Disc Association. All rights reserved. Blu-ray Disc™ and the Blu-ray Disc logo are trademarks of the Blu-ray Disc Association." under all the company logos at blu-raydisc.com.

My local electronics adn white goods store just placed in its advertising circular " HD DVD player $299, was $399. First time advertising any HD player. Talked to the local manager. Said they just sold everyone they had in stock. Small regional 5 store chain of white and brown goods.

They never lead in new technology products and they are quite conservative in advertising. They did not feel the need to explain HD DVD. They said in the ad copy plays HD DVD's and upconverts your existing DVDs to near high definition. That's all they said in the ad. That and the $299 price spoke for themselves.

My local CC just created a big new HD DVD display.

To me anecdoctally, HD DVD is starting to become mainstream. I think its only a matter of time before movie sales start moving because of the $299 or less street prices of the HD A2.

If hardware sales will drive software sales, we should start seeing it soon.

What happens if/when HD A2 sales start being close or exceeding PS3 sales?

If anything, they're just beginning to catch up and even the marketshare.

Player prices will drop in the fall as expected for the christmas rush for BD, and it'll prolly be neck and neck all the way till no one cares anymore. Disc sales will remain the same price, content will be present on both formats, and the only 2 companies in town not releasing dual format players will be Toshiba and Sony.

There was a quote from a former Warner exec. who claimed the BDA was run like a cartel. They liked to control everything. This does not sound like open and accessible to me.All I can say is that hasn't been my experience. For me, both organizations are more similar than different. And I know parties in both camps can have their "stubborn" moments. :) Some tweaks are in the process of being done to accomodate Warner's latest wishes. Perhaps they weren't initially used to several CE companies being so heavily involved in defining a format. I'm continuously asked for my opinion on stuff (including helping out Warner a few weeks ago), and they've been very open to many of my ideas.

Do you know when the BRCM chipset will be in production for the cheap HD-DVD players?Of course. :D

You know, I've heard of more issues with people thinking HD-DVD is just DVD in high-def and not even understanding that it's a unique format that requires separate hardware, whereas Blu-Ray has no such issue, and is easily identified as a separate product. There was a time where I thought HD-DVD was the name that had better potential, but I'm starting to think Blu-Ray actually will have the superior marquee value. At least based on anecdotal evidence. I don't think having the word DVD in HD-DVD is really any sort of advantage anymore...and if anything, actually leads to some minor confusion.

So I'd have to disagree with this sentiment, since I don't think it'd help at all, I seriously doubt BD would do anything to buy the DVD name.


This has been my experience as well. Either that or people just assume HD-DVD is Blu-ray.

If anything, they're just beginning to catch up and even the marketshare.

Player prices will drop in the fall as expected for the christmas rush for BD, and it'll prolly be neck and neck all the way till no one cares anymore. Disc sales will remain the same price, content will be present on both formats, and the only 2 companies in town not releasing dual format players will be Toshiba and Sony.


I don't see how any CE manufacturers will make any money or differentiate their players if they don't go Hybrid. Even without cheap, no-name players Toshiba and Sony will pull the profitability rug out from under them, but Toshiba and Sony won't go hybrid, so that's about the only HDM carrot the other CE companies will have to dangle.

or they could just pull support from either format

I don't see how any CE manufacturers will make any money or differentiate their players if they don't go Hybrid. Ok, so everybody goes Hybrid. Then how will they make money or differentiate themselves?

What happens if/when HD A2 sales start being close or exceeding PS3 sales?Then Sony and/or the BDA have a decision to make IMO. Sit back and let themselves get beat or do something like get a much lower priced standalone of their own to compete, have something happen to greatly increase PS3 sales, etc.

But the above does kind of oversimplify things. Like Sony and/or the BDA may already have a much lower priced player in the works. And Toshiba only seems to be doing this promo in the US (not sure about Canada). So, what if they go ahead for software sales in the US, but continue to do poorly in Japan (from what I've seen) and get beat 3:1 or more for software sales on an ongoing weekly basis in Europe (just using the last indication for a week I saw as speculation)? Is Toshiba willing to do even close to the same stuff in the rest of the world as in the US, as far as pricing and if not, can they dislodge Blu-ray in Japan and Europe?

Getting sales now could be a double edged sword for HD DVD. Of course the sales help that side, but if there are decision makers on the Blu-ray side who think that price doesn't matter, this sale could convince them otherwise. Then they may have time to react before the critical holiday season, where doing something like this later in the year wouldn't give the Blu-ray side as much time to react. The Blu-ray camp shouldn't be able to say they weren't warned.

--Darin

Combo disks are the highest price, but not the most expensive to product. That distinction belongs to the 50GB BD disks - and by a big margin at that.....

Perhaps they are not the most expensive but they seem to have the worst yield?

I have not heard of anyone 'boiling' a BD50 to get it to read... :D

UMD is a proprietary format for portable movies. The primary device for this is the PSP. Sony would have licensed it if other vendors would be interested. Again, the PSP was probably too subsidized for others to compete against...

hey that sounds a lot like whats going on with hd dvd!

Because one of the formats will not be able to beat SD DVD?

Feel free to guess which one that is

the one that can't come close to beating it's competitor on any week even with planned "show support, buy a disk day", the one that even though has been out longer has sold less players and movies, the one that once you add all the rebates, free movies... it is almost free and people are still not getting conned into buying it.

:)

Ok, so everybody goes Hybrid. Then how will they make money or differentiate themselves?

The well is gonna run dry at some point no matter what. BD will not make it to critical mass on $600 players that sell for $449-$499, and the PS3 is not going to do it alone. So your going to see pricing that pulls both formats down to a level that nobody that's not Sony or Toshiba will be too keen about.

The LG with it's many shortcomings still sells for a grand, enough that LG will be ramping up production without lowering the tag.

Consumers may end up demanding hybrids as the only no-risk entry into HD.

the one that can't come close to beating it's competitor on any week even with planned "show support, buy a disk day", the one that even though has been out longer has sold less players and movies, the one that once you add all the rebates, free movies... it is almost free and people are still not getting conned into buying it.

:)

Did you look at the graphs for yesterday and today?

UMD is a proprietary format for portable movies. The primary device for this is the PSP. Sony would have licensed it if other vendors would be interested. Again, the PSP was probably too subsidized for others to compete against...


The PSP hardware produced a profit on every unit sold from day 1. Do you even bother to research things or do you just spout off and hope nobody knows the facts?


BD is a proprietary format for HD home video. The primary device for this is the PS3. Sony has licensed it to other vendors, but they cannot compete with the highly subsidized PS3 and will soon have to abandon it. JMHO.


HD DVD is a proprietyary format for HD home video. The primary device for this is the XBOX 360 add-on. Toshiba produces and heavily subsidizes all other players so much so that no other company even bothers to produce dedicated players. RCA tried to rebadge a Toshiba, and even gave up on that. The hardware vendors never started making dedicated HD DVD players, so they don't even have to abandon it. JMHO.

1. That even with 90% studio support it is unable to maintain software growth.

2. That even with 90% CE support it is unable to field a standalone player that sells in any volume.

3. BD exists today because of the PS3, that's it. It's in the same category of UMD and has the same future as UMD.

1) not true HD DVD sales have not increased, look at the graph. BD has been increasing just not fast

2) for both formats the none stand alones outnumber the stand alones. As for # how many models has Toshiba had? 6+ the RCA, 100k separated by 5 (or 6) is not what I would call volume (not that 100k in over a year is something to crow about)

3) this is the funniest of them all so BD with 90% CE and studio support (as you said above) is a proprietary format? Let’s do a brake down

tech:
- BD was started with several companies coming together to make anew format
- HD DVD was brought to the DVD forum ready made by Toshiba
CE support:
- BD is supported by (your number) 90% of manufacturers
- HD DVD is supported by its manufacturer
Studio:
BD: supported by most
HD DVD: supported by a few

If anything HD DVD is the proprietary format that is going no where

Hey laugh all ya want, but the majority of people I meet don't know the first thing about hi-def media yet, they don't know there are two HDTV types, they mistake any flat screen for HD, and they don't even know a broadcast-standard change is pending. They do however know what a DVD is, & when they realize they gotta buy an HDTV, an HD DVD player is going to be self-explanatory. In 2008 I'm sure you'll see a lot of players getting bundled right into the purchase of a TV.

If Blu-ray could buy "DVD" and be Blu-DVD, B-DVD, or Blu-ray DVD, they wouldn't let the sun set on the deal before they coughed-up the $.

Actually the majority of people I meet who don't even really know a war is going on tell me how bad the name "HD DVD" sounds compared to "Blu-ray." Just say it out loud. "Ache Dee Dee Vee Dee". Who wants to say that mouthful every time when you can just say "Blu Ray".

By your logic DVD should never have worked because people were expecting "CD VHS" or something.

There was a quote from a former Warner exec. who claimed the BDA was run like a cartel. They liked to control everything. This does not sound like open and accessible to me.

Do you know when the BRCM chipset will be in production for the cheap HD-DVD players?

Ah yes, the infamous Warren Lieberfarb quote. Pay no attention to the fact that he was a hired consultant for Microsoft and Toshiba. He obviously is unbiased.

UMD is a proprietary format for portable movies. The primary device for this is the PSP. Sony would have licensed it if other vendors would be interested. Again, the PSP was probably too subsidized for others to compete against...

exactly like HD DVD

[...], the one that even though has been out longer has sold less players and movies, [...]

:)

So you mean Blu-ray? Blu-ray has surely sold less players than HD DVD. Blu-ray has sold over 90 % of theire Blu-ray stuff as gaming toys.

PS3 owners don't need to worry even if/when HD DVD will win the battle; The owners should always be left with theire games. I think the worries are more reflected to a situation if there weren't really any good games available. But that is not the fault of HD DVD if it the situation should be bad for the games in the future.

Price doesn't matter... ;)

----

VideoBusiness: Price drops lift HD DVD player sales (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6447181.html)

Toshiba’s recent price drop on its HD DVD players and aggressive retailer pricing over the holiday weekend have driven up sales as much as tenfold at some retailers.

Since Toshiba began offering a $100 instant rebate on HD DVD players, sales have grown between fivefold and tenfold, depending on the retailer, said Jodi Sally, VP of marketing for Toshiba America Consumer Products.

“We’re thrilled to see that consumers are, by far, choosing Toshiba’s HD DVD players as their source for high-definition,” Sally said.

On May 20, Toshiba began offering the rebate on select HD DVD player models, effectively slashing the price on the bottom line HD-A2 model to $299.

Amazon.com cut the price even further, to as low as $238 over Memorial Day weekend. The lower price shot up the player to be the top-selling DVD player on the site, a spot previously held by the Oppo up-converting DVD player, which sells for $229.

exactly like HD DVD
I think Panasonic & friends thinks UMD sounds more like PS3 in theire ears.
:)

3) this is the funniest of them all so BD with 90% CE and studio support (as you said above) is a proprietary format? Let’s do a brake down



LOL that's funny! BD is not a proprietery format, true. But by your logic, HD DVD must be propreitary...well go ask Samsung or LG if they think HD DVD is as such....

BTW looking at the infamous sale chart, I am really at a lost at BD's performance given their 90% CE and Studio support. Any theory you can provide?

That's the purest expression of a sour grapes expression of a possible HD DVD victory I have seen to date.

Sounds very depressive. Dr. Kosty prescribes a purchase of a $249 HD A2 at Sam's Club with 5 free HD DVD movies so you can actually see that the future may not be that bleak.

I mean really, you can't really think Toshiba wants HD DVD and Blu-ray to both lose so double layer standard DVDs will prevail.

I mean read Aseop.

not at all. I did not say Toshiba wants HD DVD to fail. Unlike most here I think they are just not that dumb or delusional to think it can win. I was just pointing out that for them still pushing HD DVD is not about them thinking it will win but just to keep the war going long enough so that BD does not get entrenched and take s over from DVD.

theoretically there can be 4 options
1) BD becomes the next standard media
2) HD DVD becomes the next standard media
3) none of them becomes the next standard
4) both together become the standard

if #1 Toshiba loses big time
#4 they lose a bit
#2/#3 they win

2and 4 have almost 0 chance of happening. So Toshiba wins if #3 and loses if #1. So for them no HDOM is a good thing. They can continue with the DVD royalties until the patents end when they introduce something else.

Did you look at the graphs for yesterday and today?I've looked at them, but I'm not sure what your point is. The Blu-ray camp had a, "Let's manipulate the numbers day" on Saturday and the HD DVD camp had one on Sunday. People tend to buy from Amazon the most as those are the numbers many of them are trying to manipulate. So far these haven't resulted in a change to the winner by the Nielsen numbers (the much larger share of the market). I just looked and even with yesterdays manipulation day for HD DVD the top 10 average is in Blu-ray's favor, with the top 25 and top 100 in HD DVD's favor. I'll wait a few days before I put much stock in the Amazon disc rankings again, as these special days from both sides make them largely useless, IMO.

--Darin

Is this really the Nielsen/Videoscan sales ratio and Top 5 thread?
Somewhere I must have taken the wrong turn.

not at all. I did not say Toshiba wants HD DVD to fail. Unlike most here I think they are just not that dumb or delusional to think it can win.I think they know it can win. Especially if the Blu-ray camp is arrogant enough and naive enough to let it happen.

--Darin

Did you look at the graphs for yesterday and today?

what graph? we only get VS numbers once a week

So you mean Blu-ray? Blu-ray has surely sold less players than HD DVD. Blu-ray has sold over 90 % of theire Blu-ray stuff as gaming toys.

so, they are all players. I use my Samsung, I use my PS3 no problem, it just depends what room I want to watch the movie in.

not at all. I did not say Toshiba wants HD DVD to fail. Unlike most here I think they are just not that dumb or delusional to think it can win. I was just pointing out that for them still pushing HD DVD is not about them thinking it will win but just to keep the war going long enough so that BD does not get entrenched and take s over from DVD.

theoretically there can be 4 options
1) BD becomes the next standard media
2) HD DVD becomes the next standard media
3) none of them becomes the next standard
4) both together become the standard

if #1 Toshiba loses big time
#4 they lose a bit
#2/#3 they win

2and 4 have almost 0 chance of happening. So Toshiba wins if #3 and loses if #1. So for them no HDOM is a good thing. They can continue with the DVD royalties until the patents end when they introduce something else.

Actually if number 3 happens then no one wins.

I've looked at them, but I'm not sure what your point is. The Blu-ray camp had a, "Let's manipulate the numbers day" on Saturday and the HD DVD camp had one on Sunday. People tend to buy from Amazon the most as those are the numbers many of them are trying to manipulate. So far these haven't resulted in a change to the winner by the Nielsen numbers (the much larger share of the market). I just looked and even with yesterdays manipulation day for HD DVD the top 10 average is in Blu-ray's favor, with the top 25 and top 100 in HD DVD's favor. I'll wait a few days before I put much stock in the Amazon disc rankings again, as these special days from both sides make them largely useless, IMO.

--Darin

Common dute, you know HD DVD was number 1 in electronics. The sale just started the software will pick up as well. Your statement about the top 25 is deliberately false. If anyone has been following HDgamedb.com HD DVD has been above Blu-Ray in the top 25 for 3 days. The A2 is number 1 in dvd players above even the Oppo and as of now is number 11 in electronics, only because Amazon stock ran out. If your gonna post at least be honest. Blu-ray stand alones have never reached this mile stone. And you know this becase I have read a few of your comments were you were suprised at the spike. There aren't that many AVS members buying the A2 this is nation wide.

As for DVD compatibility...what are you talking about? Only HD-DVD can provide?

As much as there are issues with hd dvd combo disks there are also long term implications down the line to having no combo disks.

Since BD has no combo format (at least not yet) every standard dvd player is incompatible with every BD disk. HD DVD has at least an option in that respect to keep software compatible with standard dvd players.

Death to combos may make enthusiasts stand up and cheer but it remains to be seen how main stream consumers feel about moving completely to movies that don't play on their secondary televisions, or portable players or in vehicles.

BD could address that by packaging an sd dvd copy in with a BD but that would likely create an instant secondary dvd market on ebay and such with people selling their dvd copies pulling away potentially from both sd dvd and bd sales by adding more cheap dvds into the market, and with new releases at that.

People won't buy PS3's for every room, that's for sure so in an all blu-ray world much cheaper players BD will definitely be needed pretty quickly for kids rooms, bed rooms, portable players etc.

LOL that's funny! BD is not a proprietery format, true. But by your logic, HD DVD must be propreitary...well go ask Samsung or LG if they think HD DVD is as such....
AOD was created by Toshiba and brought to the DVD forum and it became HD DVD pretty much as it was. So yes I consider it more proprietary then BD that was created inside the BDA forum from the ground up by many companies. (though I would not consider any of the formats purely proprietary). As for Samsung, the player is not here yet and for LG we now know they did not get permission to make an HD DVD player, that is why there is no HD DVD logo on it.

BTW looking at the infamous sale chart, I am really at a lost at BD's performance given their 90% CE and Studio support. Any theory you can provide?
There is a war and so people are naturally more reluctant buying movies just in case it won't survive. If they can rent and fear having useless movies many will just buy the most important movies. That is why BD numbers go way high when there is something popular but is almost as bad as HD DVD numbers when there is not (many buy the "cool" movie, the hard core buy the rest)

Actually if number 3 happens then no one wins.

no we lose (people that want HD) but Toshiba and even WB win if DVD sticks around. They are getting most of the DVD royalties. So sticking with the DVD format is a win for them. That was one of the reason Toshiba wanted to stick with all the DVD specs that they owned and were getting royalties. WB had many of the replication royalties and Toshiba many of the disk and HW royalties. All of those they tried to keep on HD DVD. But some of the others (like Audio and Video) they did not care and so those got improved. If HDOM fail and we go back to DVD Toshiba will continue making what they are making on DVD instead of HD DVD

BD is proprietary because the trademark and license to use the name Blu Ray or even the Blu Ray logo belongs to one company and one company alone - Sony. In my dictionary that is proprietary. No one company owns the rights to the HD DVD logo or name. HD DVD does not belong to Toshiba or MSFT, Blu Ray belongs to Sony. Tomorrow Sony tells Panny that they can't use the Blu Ray name and logo and Panny has to come up with a different name for their product. There is a huge difference between one company owning the product called BD and the DVD Forum owning the product called HD DVD.

Even the BDA can't use the BDA logo without Sony's approval. Now isn't that strange....

As for the PSP selling at a profit on day 1. Isn't it funny that we heard that Sony was subsidizing the PS3 because game consoles are historicially subsidized. Then how come the PSP wasn't? What was Sony's margin on the PSP? Obviously no one else thought it worthwhile to support UMD!

Toshiba is achieving economies of scale that others will find hard to match for now. That comes with the teritory. As far as Tosh subsidizing the G2 players- do we have a link on the $ value of this? Tosh after all sells 3 models and subsidy on one can be offset with profits on another. All 3 models appear to be selling well.

Common dute, you know HD DVD was number 1 in electronics

go back, the Toshiba player has done well on Amazon for some time now. But in this year HD DVD disk numbers have not increased


PS this is the Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 we discuss disks not players

Using the weekly VS numbers since Jan if you draw a trend line, I believe the HD DVD line will slope up, the BD line is flat to declining. IIRC.

Actually the majority of people I meet who don't even really know a war is going on tell me how bad the name "HD DVD" sounds compared to "Blu-ray." Just say it out loud. "Ache Dee Dee Vee Dee". Who wants to say that mouthful every time when you can just say "Blu Ray".

It's a format, ya don't have to be able to set it to music, just know what it is.

I've heard many snicker at the uncomfortable proximity "Blu-ray" is to "Blurry".
So sticks and stones to you good fellow. ;)

Your statement about the top 25 is deliberately false. If anyone has been following HDgamedb.com HD DVD has been above Blu-Ray in the top 25 for 3 days.You are wrong and fortunately the graphs are there for people to see that you are wrong. So, are you going to admit it, or continue with your falsehood where you claim that my statement about the top 25 is deliberately false? It isn't even false, let alone "deliberately false". People can go here:

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/history.aspx?TYPE=25&SPAN=0

and pick different days on the left to see that for the last few days HD DVD didn't pass Blu-ray for the top 25 on there until about 2 pm (eastern I believe) yesterday, which was the manipulate the numbers day. For all of Saturday (May 27th) that shows Blu-ray ahead for the top 25. Same with Friday, Thursday, and last Wednesday.
If your gonna post at least be honest.I could say the same about you given that my comment was correct and what you posted was not correct according to the hdgamedb.com site. So, will you now be honest and correct that claim you made? The data is right there.
Blu-ray stand alones have never reached this mile stone. And you know this becase I have read a few of your comments were you were suprised at the spike. There aren't that many AVS members buying the A2 this is nation wide.Yes, the A2 is selling very well and I am impressed (as I have said). But the manipulation of the numbers with these buy days makes it difficult to separate what effects are causing things, as I believe I made clear. As I said, I will wait a few days before I put much stock in the disc rankings again. At that point the extra hardware sales will still be relevant, but the manipulation will have mostly dissipated.

Please be honest and tell us why you claimed that HD DVD has been ahead of Blu-ray for the top 25 for 3 days.

--Darin

Originally posted by plazman
Even the BDA can't use the BDA logo without Sony's approval. Now isn't that strange....

It's no different than Warner being paid for every disc with the traditional DVD logo on the packaging. That's part of what kept Disney on the sidelines back in the day, and why they use their own DVD logo on most of their discs.

fitprod

no we lose (people that want HD) but Toshiba and even WB win if DVD sticks around. They are getting most of the DVD royalties. So sticking with the DVD format is a win for them. That was one of the reason Toshiba wanted to stick with all the DVD specs that they owned and were getting royalties. WB had many of the replication royalties and Toshiba many of the disk and HW royalties. All of those they tried to keep on HD DVD. But some of the others (like Audio and Video) they did not care and so those got improved. If HDOM fail and we go back to DVD Toshiba will continue making what they are making on DVD instead of HD DVD

So how does Toshiba win if HD DVD loses? Sorry but no one wins? They have invested alot of $ in the HD DVD format. Continuing down the same path with DVD isn't considered a victory by any stretch of the imagination. If you think Toshiba and Warner win then you have to expand that assumption to all studios and Sony who will still release DVD players and movies.

So how does Toshiba win if HD DVD no one wins? They have invested alot of $ in the HD DVD format. Continuing down the same path with DVD isn't considered a victory by any stretch of the imagination.

the bit they spent on HD DVD is lost. But there was not much new from them. A format brings in a lot of royalties. If none win Toshiba gets their royalties still coming in. Again the point was not that for Toshiba 2 is better then 3 but 3 is much better then 1 or 4. Obviously for Toshiba the order of best to worst is 2341, for BD companies it is 14 (with a tie as bad for 2&3). The problem is that someone said why would Toshiba support HD DVD if it did not think it had a good chance of winning. The thing is that Toshiba can only fully lose with #1, any other income (including the more probable one - 3)> Toshiba has every interest in seeing #1 does not happen.

the bit they spent on HD DVD is lost. But there was not much new from them. A format brings in a lot of royalties. If none win Toshiba gets their royalties still coming in. Again the point was not that for Toshiba 2 is better then 3 but 3 is much better then 1 or 4. Obviously for Toshiba the order of best to worst is 2341, for BD companies it is 14 (with a tie as bad for 2&3). The problem is that someone said why would Toshiba support HD DVD if it did not think it had a good chance of winning. The thing is that Toshiba can only fully lose with #1, any other income (including the more probable one - 3)> Toshiba has every interest in seeing #1 does not happen.

You are assuming that HD DVD has lost. With the HD-A2 being the number 1 selling movie player on Amazon and number 2 in all of electronics that assumption is premature.

Of course Toshiba has an interest in seeing Blu-Ray fail, they want HD DVD to win to think otherwise is silly. However if you think Toshiba wins if both formats fail then you have to extend that to Sony who will continue to market and sell DVD players and all major studios who will continue to release DVDs. You are reaching the pinacle of fanboyism here anthony

You are reaching the pinacle of fanboyism here anthony
Is the pinnacle including a format in your name? ;)

Is the pinnacle including a format in your name? ;)

Hey I'm one of the HD DVD guys who says he'll get a Blu-Ray format when they fall to a reasonable price. But claiming that Toshiba will be a "winner" if both formats fail is stupid plain and simple.

Hey I'm one of the HD DVD guys who says he'll get a Blu-Ray format when they fall to a reasonable price. But claiming that Toshiba will be a "winner" if both formats fail is stupid plain and simple.

That is true, I don't think Toshiba will consider themselves the winner unless they are the winner. They are certainly expending a lot of resources to make sure it happens, and in the end thats good for all of us. I hope this latest price drop really scares the bejesus out of the BDA and they respond. In the future I see the deals offered by both sides only getting sweeter.

Hey I'm one of the HD DVD guys who says he'll get a Blu-Ray format when they fall to a reasonable price. But claiming that Toshiba will be a "winner" if both formats fail is stupid plain and simple.


No, it isn't

Unfortunately for HD DVD it is the software that drives hardware sales. That's why no matter how many HD DVD players are handed out for free (pretty much) on street corners, the titles people actually want to buy are still only on Blu-ray.

As for the HDA2 outselling the PS3 :eek: :rolleyes: . I'm guessing you got a little carried away with your speculation.

Wow! I've pretty much ignored this thread recently because of all the useless speculation and posts instead of hard numbers that we used to get, but i guess there still are people out there who actually use that old noggin. :)

That is true, I don't think Toshiba will consider themselves the winner unless they are the winner. They are certainly expending a lot of resources to make sure it happens, and in the end thats good for all of us.

How would it be "good" for us if HD discs fail? :mad:

How would it be "good" for us if HD discs fail? :mad:

Oh it won't be good if HD discs fail. I'm definitely not one of the crazies who thinks that downloadable content is going anywhere soon. I just meant that competition is lowering prices at a good rate, now if only the two formats would get into a disk price war.

You are assuming that HD DVD has lost. With the HD-A2 being the number 1 selling movie player on Amazon and number 2 in all of electronics that assumption is premature.

Of course Toshiba has an interest in seeing Blu-Ray fail, they want HD DVD to win to think otherwise is silly. However if you think Toshiba wins if both formats fail then you have to extend that to Sony who will continue to market and sell DVD players and all major studios who will continue to release DVDs. You are reaching the pinacle of fanboyism here anthony


how much work goes in a DVD player? royalties is where the real money is now. No one is making any real money in DVD player manufacturing.On the other hand on every player sold Toshiba is making money due to royalties. You don't need to make much per item

According to CEA there were a bit less then 20M stand alone players last year. Add the drives (on every computer) and consoles and even a few cents per device adds up to millions for no work. Then you look at disks (be they ROM or recordable) and then you add some more millions.

I am not saying they win because they will make DVD players but the royalties will continue to come in from DVD as long as DVD is around, so the only bad thing for Toyota is if something not theirs replaces DVD. The same way that it was bad for JVC when DVD replaced VHS.

(PS the 20M was for the US only)

No, it isn't

ohh yes, Toshiba will be jumping for joy when both High Def formats fail. Obviously Toshiba wants HD DVD to win, but if neither win then no one wins. End of story.

how much work goes in a DVD player? royalties is where the real money is now. No one is making any real money in DVD player manufacturing.On the other hand on every player sold Toshiba is making money due to royalties. You don't need to make much per item

According to CEA there were a bit less then 20M stand alone players last year. Add the drives (on every computer) and consoles and even a few cents per device adds up to millions for no work. Then you look at disks (be they ROM or recordable) and then you add some more millions.

I am not saying they win because they will make DVD players but the royalties will continue to come in from DVD as long as DVD is around, so the only bad thing for Toyota is if something not theirs replaces DVD. The same way that it was bad for JVC when DVD replaced VHS.

(PS the 20M was for the US only)

So that means Toshiba will "win" the HD war if both formats fail? I think not

ohh yes, Toshiba will be jumping for joy when both High Def formats fail. Obviously Toshiba wants HD DVD to win, but if neither win then no one wins. End of story.
How ya let yourself get into entertaining this absurd notion in first place. This whole idea that it HD DVD will kill HD period if it does well, or better, or lives at all, is just BD vinegar. The only thing it says to me is that the quick-kill plan is dead-in-the-water, and some are very sour about it.

How ya let yourself get into entertaining this absurd notion in first place. This whole idea that it HD DVD will kill HD period if it does well, or better, or lives at all, is just BD vinegar. The only thing it says to me is that the quick-kill plan is dead-in-the-water, and some are very sour about it.

You aren't sour about the idea of both formats failing spectacularly?

You aren't sour about the idea of both formats failing spectacularly?

No, I question the wisdom that HD DVD is a "spoiler" simply because it hasn't gone poof in order to fulfill the promise of BD PR.

So, when can we expect the next set of number from Nielsen?

So, when can we expect the next set of number from Nielsen?

Friday. Sometimes we get the weekly percentage Thursday.

BTW, again it's time to guess the results for the week ending May 27. Reminder: you have to guess the weekly Blu-ray/HD DVD sales percentage, and the top 3 hidef sellers for the week.

This is going to be a tricky week:

HD DVD new releases:
- Flags of Our Fathers (DreamWorks)
- Freedom Writers (Paramount)
- Letters from Iwo Jima (Warner)

HD DVD catalog releases:
- The 40 Year Old Virgin (Universal)
- The Complete Matrix Trilogy (Warner)
- Mission: Impossible (Paramount)
- Mission: Impossible II (Paramount)
- The Skeleton Key (Universal)
- Smokey and the Bandit (Universal)
- The Ultimate Matrix Collection (Warner)

Blu-ray new releases:
- Apocalypto (Buena Vista)
- Flags of Our Fathers (DreamWorks)
- Freedom Writers (Paramount)
- Letters from Iwo Jima (Warner)

Blu-ray catalog releases:
- Closer (Sony)
- Mission: Impossible (Paramount)
- Mission: Impossible II (Paramount)
- Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Buena Vista)
- Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Buena Vista)

My own guess:

59/41 (Blu-ray/HD DVD)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Blu-ray)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu-ray)
3. Complete Matrix Trilogy (HD DVD)

My own guess:

59/41 (Blu-ray/HD DVD)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Blu-ray)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu-ray)
3. Complete Matrix Trilogy (HD DVD)
I like your thinking, but I'm going to go 61/39. :)

BTW, again it's time to guess the results for the week ending May 27. Reminder: you have to guess the weekly Blu-ray/HD DVD sales percentage, and the top 3 hidef sellers for the week.


I'm going to say HD DVD got just a little closer to parity this week.

56/44 (Blu-ray/HD DVD)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Blu-ray)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu-ray)
3. Ultimate Matrix (HD DVD)

66/34 bluray

New releases sell really well. Apoc was out on Blu-ray, not HD-DVD so that's a positive for blu-ray. One of the Eastwood movies was a combo so that's another positive for blu-ray. Out of the 3 new movies, 2 are definitely positives for BR. Pirates will probably sell better because it's cheaper and there are two of them.

Trust me, I'm a HD-DVD biased format neutral guy, but BR should do better this week.

53/47

63/37 (Blu-ray/HD DVD)

1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Blu-ray)
2. Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu-ray)
3. Apocalypto (Blu-ray)

When the Nielsen numbers will be out?

I say 59/41 Blu-Ray. I predict starting next week the numbers begin a steady climb back towards HD-DVD with all the new player sales.

Don't forget the top 3 titles... ;)

I'm going with 98/1.1/0.9 (SD DVD/Blu Ray/HD DVD)

Concentrating on HiDef I would say

57/43 (Blu Ray/HD DVD)

1 Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Blu Ray)
2 Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu Ray)
3 Ultimate Matrix (HD DVD)

However if we could measure dollar revenue I think this week would be a clear win for HD DVD.

I also predict that the two Matrix counted together will be neck and neck with the best selling Pirates.

I'm going with 98/1.1/0.9 (SD DVD/Blu Ray/HD DVD)

Concentrating on HiDef I would say

57/43 (Blu Ray/HD DVD)

1 Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Man's Chest (Blu Ray)
2 Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu Ray)
3 Ultimate Matrix (HD DVD)

However if we could measure dollar revenue I think this week would be a clear win for HD DVD.

I also predict that the two Matrix counted together will be neck and neck with the best selling Pirates.

I'd really be surprised if either Matrix made the top 3 for the simple fact there are two box sets essentially dividing the numbers.

I say 59/41 Blu-Ray. I predict starting next week the numbers begin a steady climb back towards HD-DVD with all the new player sales.

I think you're right.

I'd bet a weekly in favor for HD-DVD and a YTD in favor of BD heading into Q4 of '07.

After player slashes in the holiday, I'd bet BD to pull back in the lead especially after the Spidie releases.

My best guess:

55/55 (so a draw)

Best 3 top selling titles:

(1) LOTR EE Total-HD
(2) LOTR Total-HD
(3) Serenity Blu-Ray

:confused:

My prediction is that all the new player sales will not significantly drive up disc sales for HD DVD.

61/39 BD.

Top 3 BD

PoTC2
PoTC1
Apocalypto

HD DVD
Ultimate Matrix
Planet Earth
Complete Matrix

Top 5 will be the 3 BD titles and then top 2 HD DVD.

No, I question the wisdom that HD DVD is a "spoiler" simply because it hasn't gone poof in order to fulfill the promise of BD PR.
:D

Thats the sour grapes bit. Blu-ray backers are angry that HD DVD refuses to die and go away. Its like a "if I can't win , nobody can win mentality".

Sour sour grapes.

56/44 Blu-ray once again with HD DVD closing in market share.

Ultimate Matrix HD DVD

Planet Earth HD DVD

Pirates (Either One) Blu-ray

so, they are all players. I use my Samsung, I use my PS3 no problem, it just depends what room I want to watch the movie in.

Yes, many of us A/V enthuasists may have several Blu-ray players or several HD DVD players or a combination of both.

But the average customer will probably buy only one player of either formats. Or a PS3 or a Xbox 360 (which I think are toys, despite all the hi-tech). These average customers are also the real kings in Nielsen Videoscan numbers.

I don't think the masses will ever buy both a $600 gaming console and a cheap HD DVD player. That's why I think HD DVD surely has a chance to win the battle. But I suppose it's kind of hard to see this scenario if you self have both the player and the console.

Unfortunately for HD DVD it is the software that drives hardware sales. That's why no matter how many HD DVD players are handed out for free (pretty much) on street corners, the titles people actually want to buy are still only on Blu-ray.

As for the HDA2 outselling the PS3 :eek: :rolleyes: . I'm guessing you got a little carried away with your speculation. All those hardware sales of the HD A2 are accumulating and once a person buys a player they will continue buying movies

The HD A2 may approach those 80k a month in PS3 sales soon.

Shall we talk attach rate differences between the standalone HD DVD players and teh PS3 again to understand the significance of HD DVD player sales getting anywhere close to PS3 volumes??

I say 59/41 Blu-Ray. I predict starting next week the numbers begin a steady climb back towards HD-DVD with all the new player sales.
Top 3:
BD:

PoTC2
PoTC1
Apocalypto

HD DVD:
Planet Earth
Ultimate Matrix
Complete Matrix

Interesting if my top 3 HD-DVD's are correct then it's all box sets, 10 HD-DVD's in all, the studios should love that the box sets are sales leaders for the format.

OOOh, this should be fun.

Top 3:

POTC1
POTC2
Apocalypto

BD 71/HD 29

Apocalypto will probably shock a lot of people in the sales numbers, it is a Day/Date release with an amazing transfer. Its also not a 99 dollar box set like the matrix.

p.s. - When i went to best buy, they had 80 copies of each pirates, 50 copies of apocalypto and 3 copies of matrix. Frys was similar, but they had 4 copies of matrix vs over 100 Apocalypto. This is why i think people will be shocked at the difference.

69/31 BD for unit sales ($$ a whole different story)

1. POTC-DMC
2. POTC-COTBP
3. Complete Matrix Trilogy

1. POTC2
2. POTC1
3. Apocalypto

BD 69/HD 31


Marek :)

All those hardware sales of the HD A2 are accumulating and once a person buys a player they will continue buying movies

The HD A2 may approach those 80k a month in PS3 sales soon.

Shall we talk attach rate differences between the standalone HD DVD players and teh PS3 again to understand the significance of HD DVD player sales getting anywhere close to PS3 volumes??

Kosty, haven't you learned yet, attach rate means nothing- the BD side certainly says it enough. :D

DVD Empire are reporting 59:41 to Blu-ray for the week in question.

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Features/hidef_wars.asp?view=1&userid=99365717074957

There seem to be alot of posts putting one of The Matrix boxsets in the top 3... I don't think we will see either Matrix Boxset in the top 3, the two boxsets split the HD DVD userbase with 1/2 buying The Complete Trilogy and 1/2 buying The Ultimate Collection. If sales were combined they would probably be in the top 3, but not individually no way.

I think Letters from Iwo Jima and Flags could pull off a surprise. Being on both formats and being released close to memorial day will probably push sales up for both. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the pirates films wasn't in the top 2.

1. Pirates Dead Mans Chest
2. Letters From Iwo Jima
3. Pirates Black Pearl
4. Flags of our Fathers
5. Apocalypto
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy (The cheaper one)
7. Planet Earth (probably HD DVD)
8. 40 Year old Virgin
9. Ultimate Matrix Collection

55/45 In the favor of Blu-Ray

Blu-ray backers are angry that HD DVD refuses to die and go away. Its like a "if I can't win , nobody can win mentality"

I think both sides have that mentality now, and it is what will lead to both failing.

On Topic:

65:35 Blu-ray: HD DVD.

1) POTC: Dead Mans Chest
2) POTC: Curse of the Black something or another
3) Apocalypto
4) Complete Matrix Trilogy
5) Letters from Iwo Jima. BD

Kosty, haven't you learned yet, attach rate means nothing- the BD side certainly says it enough. :D


Some HD-DVD guys are too attached. It's a shiny disc that holds data (albeit less than the competing format), nothing more.

So that means Toshiba will "win" the HD war if both formats fail? I think not

who said anything about winning the HD war if both fail.

Toshiba makes a lot now from their DVD royalties
if BD wins they lose those royalties and those royalties go to the companies that have patents in BD.

If HD DVD wins what they get now from DVD is switched to HD DVD (and I am guessing a bit more)

If both lose they continue with the royalties from DVD

Thats the sour grapes bit. Blu-ray backers are angry that HD DVD refuses to die and go away. Its like a "if I can't win , nobody can win mentality".

wow Kosty, down to ad hominem. And no, I would be extremely happy if HD DVD dethroned DVD. I am just being realistic. Back in the end of 2004 I actually thought HD DVD had a better chance and I was prepared to support it (instead of BDs better format), but they made a lot of blunders back then and lost any chances they had.

Yes, many of us A/V enthuasists may have several Blu-ray players or several HD DVD players or a combination of both.

But the average customer will probably buy only one player of either formats. Or a PS3 or a Xbox 360 (which I think are toys, despite all the hi-tech). These average customers are also the real kings in Nielsen Videoscan numbers.

I don't think the masses will ever buy both a $600 gaming console and a cheap HD DVD player. That's why I think HD DVD surely has a chance to win the battle. But I suppose it's kind of hard to see this scenario if you self have both the player and the console.

not at all. I agree people don't want two formats. Eventually many will have several players but not at any time that is important. The longer HDOM takes to get entrenched the less chance it has. The issue is you are assuming that even though people won't buy two players they will buy "cheap" HD DVD players. The problem is that no one will. People can buy a cheap DVD player and get every movie. Why pay several hundreds for a player that won't? On the other hand people do buy consoles and once they bought a PS3 it is in the home and can be used for movies. At 500$ 1/2 the price of BD it did not help HD DVD, even with its head start BD quickly surpassed HD DVD disk sales. ever since then Toshiba has tried more and more financial incentives (dropping price, adding free movies) and people are still not buying too many players or disks.

At 500$ 1/2 the price of BD it did not help HD DVD, even with its head start BD quickly surpassed HD DVD disk sales. ever since then Toshiba has tried more and more financial incentives (dropping price, adding free movies) and people are still not buying too many players or disks.If the Blu-ray side doesn't react, I think we will see the result of the <$300 price points in the numbers and we can argue about it then. The Blu-ray camp may be confident enough to stick with $599 MSRPs for a while, but if they do, then I predict that by July HD DVD will win at least one week (and probably more) by the Nielsen numbers. If HD DVD wins some weeks by Nielsen count it will get a whole lot harder for some to convince others that HD DVD has lost.

--Darin

I think both sides have that mentality now, and it is what will lead to both failing.
I think as a consumer, I'm not responsible for the fate of HDM. If it fails, it won't be because I spent a grand on it, then refused to chuck my investment and spend another grand (which I don't have) on the format I didn't want to begin with.

Let CE manufacturers make some affordable hybrids if they want to save their little opus.

65/35

the two POTC and one of the Matrix HD DVD

If the Blu-ray side doesn't react, I think we will see the result of the <$300 price points in the numbers and we can argue about it then. The Blu-ray camp may be confident enough to stick with $599 MSRPs for a while, but if they do, then I predict that by July HD DVD will win at least one week (and probably more) by the Nielsen numbers. If HD DVD wins some weeks by Nielsen count it will get a whole lot harder for some to convince others that HD DVD has lost.


a lot of ifs :) I think BD will react, it is not as if they have not so far, have they? The problem is that every time Toshiba announces a new fire sale we get the same people coming here and claiming how the numbers will soon change because when HD DVD was in its first few month someone said the attachment rate was 28 and now these cheap players will sell millions of players all with an extremely high attach rate.

Anyone have a guess when the probable increased standalone sales of HD A2s at this price point will start affecting movie disc sales?

I say 3 weeks from now. It took about three weeks for the $399 MSRP price reduction to start showing in disc sales, and my speculation is that the lower price points for the Toshiba HD A2 will lead to enough sales to affect the disc sales but it takes a few weeks for people to start buying movies past after they have walked out the door with their new players.

When are the next price reductions for Blu-ray players anticipated?
i dont know but blu-ray better think about it now cause what ever mountain they think there on hd dvd is heading up the mountain to knock them off. bd continues to hold on to this were gonna make money to make money thing there into. where hd dvd seems to have this were gonna lose some money to make money! to me its a sound route to go.and to me toshbia has done more to get hd into peoples hands then bd has. its time to stop thinking hd dvd is the underdog,or if you like go ahead and think that. but hd dvd is creeping that mountain,and if the bda doesnt watch it there gonna lose the mountain

a lot of ifs :) I think BD will react, it is not as if they have not so far, have they? The problem is that every time Toshiba announces a new fire sale we get the same people coming here and claiming how the numbers will soon change because when HD DVD was in its first few month someone said the attachment rate was 28 and now these cheap players will sell millions of players all with an extremely high attach rate.You can put me down as one who didn't come here and say that these numbers were going to change at those times, but thinks they will now with the latest drop in prices on the HD DVD side, if the Blu-ray side doesn't react with something stronger than the $599 Panasonic or announced $599 Sony. What kind of reaction are you expecting from the Blu-ray side and when? I think they really should be trying for at least down to $499 MSRP in the next 2 months and Sony may have to chose to release their next Blu-ray player for close to no profit if Toshiba keeps this up and Blu-ray wants to maintain their lead over the next few months. At least for the US market (and probably Canada). Europe and Japan look like different stories. Toshiba could choose to target Europe with the same kind of price cuts, but I haven't seen indications of that yet.

I also feel like I did pretty good at predicting as far as the effect of Toshiba's announced $499 MSRP at CES 2006 vs $999 and up entries on the Blu-ray side, on standalone player sales.

--Darin

Hard to say. I think they will at least wait to see the effect- nothing for thext 2-3 week and most likely a month.

I think the main problem with some people here is that they don't really look at the numbers. It took a year for Toshiba to reach 100k players, there over 300 days in a year that means that in all of the US there were less then 350 players sold a day. In the news thread someone posted an article were a 5 store chain said they sold 10x as many players as they used to before the sale started. People look at that 10x and think , "wow that is a lot of players" but that chain might have been selling a handful of players a day.

As for what can happen? I think (not only for BD) but this year (possibly summer) Sony will cut the PS3 price. As for stand alone players, I think 500$ is a definite, my guess before the end could be even 400$

04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43

05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43

wow the ratio for week May 20th is second worst for BD as for the WHOLE year of 2007. There were coordinated purchase of HD DVD for the month of April but for may, it was done on 28th. With BD has MUCH MORE players sold, this figure continue to prove the genuine interest that consumers have on HD DVD. HD DVD: where true hidef interest lies ;)

I also feel like I did pretty good at predicting as far as the effect of Toshiba's announced $499 MSRP at CES 2006 vs $999 and up entries on the Blu-ray side, on standalone player sales.


You predicted the 52-48 that resulted when prices were there?

I have a question for everyone in our prediction league:

If the real numbers for a week come out several (4+) points different than your prediction, do you take any time to examine why your prediction was so far off, or do you just shrug it off?

The reason I ask is that week after week some people have extremely "optimistic" predictions which never seem to come true, and I think it would be interesting to see why that is.

You predicted the 52-48 that resulted when prices were there?Do you believe that the 52-48 was for units, or for dollars? I think dollars is more likely, but I don't have proof either way. Do you?

--Darin

ok i am just going to say 58 42 blu ray.

I'm pretty sure that the ratio will increase in favor of Blu-ray this week.

There's a simple explanation:
Somebody who buys both POTC movies generates two sales.
Somebody who buys all three Matrix movies generates one sale (unless he buys both box sets which doesn't make sense).

You can put me down as one who didn't come here and say that these numbers were going to change at those times, but thinks they will now with the latest drop in prices on the HD DVD side, if the Blu-ray side doesn't react with something stronger than the $599 Panasonic or announced $599 Sony. What kind of reaction are you expecting from the Blu-ray side and when? I think they really should be trying for at least down to $499 MSRP in the next 2 months and Sony may have to chose to release their next Blu-ray player for close to no profit if Toshiba keeps this up and Blu-ray wants to maintain their lead over the next few months. At least for the US market (and probably Canada). Europe and Japan look like different stories. Toshiba could choose to target Europe with the same kind of price cuts, but I haven't seen indications of that yet.

I also feel like I did pretty good at predicting as far as the effect of Toshiba's announced $499 MSRP at CES 2006 vs $999 and up entries on the Blu-ray side, on standalone player sales.

--Darin

I could see the potential positive effects of the latest drop in player prices on HD DVD software sales. But, seeing that prices never rose back after each sequential cut, Toshiba appears willing to continue this to the end of HD DVD. As inviting as it is, I'm sure BDA would not want to see the end of Blu-ray. The one who has nothing to lose could turn the heat up a notch with every reflex reaction from the opponent.

I'm pretty sure that the ratio will increase in favor of Blu-ray this week.

There's a simple explanation:
Somebody who buys both POTC movies generates two sales.
Somebody who buys all three Matrix movies generates one sale (unless he buys both box sets which doesn't make sense).

Based on the results with Planet Earth, it is not clear to me that they count a multi-disc set as only one sale.

Based on the results with Planet Earth, it is not clear to me that they count a multi-disc set as only one sale.

On the other hand, counting a boxset as multiple sales makes even less sense....

Based on the results with Planet Earth, it is not clear to me that they count a multi-disc set as only one sale.
So what, you think they count the number of discs in the package? :D

Nielsen is a sales tracking company, they don't care how much is in the box or how much it costs. They track sales, and that's that.

Nielsen/videoscan/musicscan has always, as in for the last twenty years, counted boxsets as one unit in the charts.

i dont know but blu-ray better think about it now cause what ever mountain they think there on hd dvd is heading up the mountain to knock them off. bd continues to hold on to this were gonna make money to make money thing there into. where hd dvd seems to have this were gonna lose some money to make money! to me its a sound route to go.and to me toshbia has done more to get hd into peoples hands then bd has. its time to stop thinking hd dvd is the underdog,or if you like go ahead and think that. but hd dvd is creeping that mountain,and if the bda doesnt watch it there gonna lose the mountain
I agree. Toshiba seems to be willing to do the smart thing and cut prices to the point where deals are just too attractive for consumers to pass up (I'm getting close myself). I fully expect these price cuts are costly to Toshiba, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to future sales should BR die off. The BDA desperately needs to offer hardware below $350 to get back in the game. Price cuts on the PS3 will help, but what is really needed is lower priced stand alone players similar to the A2. Every day the BDA waits, the further behind the 8 ball they are going to find themselves as it's tough to pull those HD-DVD owners over to BR once they've adopted HD-DVD. With HD-DVD hardware flying off the shelves, every one of those sales are commitments to that format and at this rate it won't belong before the momentum is strong enough to spell disaster for the BDA.



BDA,
If you don't get hardware prices within 20% of HD-DVD hardware prices, and get your exclusive studios (Fox and to a lesser extent Disney) releasing content on a regular basis, you will lose this war in the not to distant furture!!! Wake up guys!!! :mad:

Please remember that soon HD-DVD player prices will go up again... it's a temporary promotion.

Please remember that soon HD-DVD player prices will go up again... it's a temporary promotion.
Will they? Have you seen the prices go back up on the Toshiba hardware? Every time they've made cuts, they've basically stuck.

Remember, ever player Toshiba sells is a commitment to HD-DVD and likely lost future sales to BR. The BDA must counter with similarly priced hardware to stop this hemorrhaging if they want to stay in the game.

Will they?
Of course they will. It's a limited time offer.

Who knows, the promotion may have been so http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/High-Def_Retailing/Toshiba/Hardware_(74_posts)/Toshiba_Reports_Strong_Sales_For_HD_DVD_Player_Promo/663 that Toshiba could decide to make the promotional price permanent. But I doubt it, however the current prices will probably return for the months of November and December.

... I fully expect these price cuts are costly to Toshiba, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to future sales should BR die off. ...

I don't expect these price cuts to be that costly. It's even likely they are getting a profit from the player they are selling.

Consider this also:

Before HD Toshiba didn't sell that much SD DVD players. The were operating in a DVD market having only a small market share. And in a lower price range so they didn't make much on SD DVD.

Now that they offer an affordable HD DVD player there overall market share has grown at the expense of SD DVD players in the $200..$600 price range too.
(Why spend $200 on a DVD player when you can get HD DVD for 250 + a bundle of movies?)

If they get the message across to an even bigger target audience then they are in a position to capture, not only a large part of the HD player market but also a sizeable part of the SD DVD player market.
I'm shure that Toshiba is hurting Pioneer, Denon, Panasonic etc. in the SD DVD player sales too.

As this brings economics of scale even more into the picture they are in a good position to drive the prices down even lower.

I have no doubt that br ce player prices can come down very quick at this stage but it will cost them dearly as they don't have the economics of scale driving their costs down. They still are prototyping because of the unfinished specs so the question is also: Do they want sell al lot of 'obselete' players at this stage yet to less educated consumers then early adopters?

A next follow up in the pricing war will be that HD DVD discs will get pricing down to the $15 range. Can br afford to follow that up short term?

Please remember that soon HD-DVD player prices will go up again... it's a temporary promotion.

It's also an experiment to find a pricing sweetspot to entice the next target audience*. If during this experiment they see a sustained higher sales rate then the pricing isn't going up by much if at all. The can even lower the price even more at the expense of the free movie offerings when the promotion ends if the higher sales rate brings in benefits of economics of scale.

Since the br camp isn't yet in a position yet to counter the pricing Toshiba can affors to experiment a little.
I have no doubt that Toshiba can afford to go lower still to counter a bda move if that will happen short term.

(First early adopters next are the *followers waiting for a deal and last everybody else )

I don't expect these price cuts to be that costly. It's even likely they are getting a profit from the player they are selling.

I really don't think so. It's a fire sale to counter Blu-ray's momentum. Toshiba has played the low-price card from day one because they know it's basically the only card they have.

I have no doubt that br ce player prices can come down very quick at this stage but it will cost them dearly as they don't have the economics of scale driving their costs down.

If anyone has economies of scale in regard to blue laser diodes, it's Sony.

A next follow up in the pricing war will be that HD DVD discs will get pricing down to the $15 range. Can br afford to follow that up short term?

Toshiba/MS can't dictate disc prices. Why would the studios, especially the neutral ones, lower disc prices? Only Universal would have any incentive to do this, and right now with their combo strategy their disc prices are usually even higher than the competition.

If anyone has economies of scale in regard to blue laser diodes, it's Sony.


blue laser diode alone does not dictate the prices of BD players.

I really don't think so. It's a fire sale to counter Blu-ray's momentum. Toshiba has played the low-price card from day one because they know it's basically the only card they have.

Very true and great insight from Toshiba on how te get the format into the mass market where most folks regard HD as an added feature instead of a truly new format.
But now it's clear that Toshiba still have cards left to play with.



Toshiba/MS can't dictate disc prices. Why would the studios, especially the neutral ones, lower disc prices? Only Universal would have any incentive to do this, and right now with their combo strategy their disc prices are usually even higher than the competition.

If studios are serious about HD to succeed in the mass market they must lower the current pricing. They know this already. It's just a matter of how much and when.

During early adopter fase they can get away with premium pricing.
Now it's at a stage they need to show 'progress in format development' to the general public by showing price cuts. With DVD they could afford to do this over a longer period of time because the adoption was also driven by a significant quality improvement at the time and lack of competition from other formats.
HD does not have this advantage, it has to compete on price.

Seeing that the last br buy day (27th) didn't make a dent in the amazon graphs where the HD DVD buy day (28th) actually did I can only conlude that br is loosing momentum. Even with the pirates releases. After this the HD DVD player buying frenzy started.

There seem to be alot of posts putting one of The Matrix boxsets in the top 3... I don't think we will see either Matrix Boxset in the top 3, the two boxsets split the HD DVD userbase with 1/2 buying The Complete Trilogy and 1/2 buying The Ultimate Collection. If sales were combined they would probably be in the top 3, but not individually no way.

I think Letters from Iwo Jima and Flags could pull off a surprise. Being on both formats and being released close to memorial day will probably push sales up for both. It wouldn't surprise me if one of the pirates films wasn't in the top 2.

1. Pirates Dead Mans Chest
2. Letters From Iwo Jima
3. Pirates Black Pearl
4. Flags of our Fathers
5. Apocalypto
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy (The cheaper one)
7. Planet Earth (probably HD DVD)
8. 40 Year old Virgin
9. Ultimate Matrix Collection

55/45 In the favor of Blu-Ray

I don't think the box sets will split 50/50. I think th esplit will be like 80/20 with the complete trilogy raking in 80%, so I think it could certainly see a top 3.

If studios are serious about HD to succeed in the mass market they must lower the current pricing. They know this already. It's just a matter of how much and when.

I believe the studios were looking for a way to get more profit from the ever decreasing SD DVD disk prices and declining theater ticket sales. I have read HD was "proposed" as a way to boost prices and thereby increase studio profit on disk sales ... the theory was offer "more" resolution and features to justify a higher disk price. If people are so entrenched in cheap disk prices as they are in SD DVD, I doubt there is much incentive for HD disks at or near the same pricing. Sutdios want to charge a premium for HD disks and they want the costs to be on par with SD disk production.

Home theaters destroy theater ticket sales ....
Video on demand will destroy disk sales ....

Studios will have to come up with yet another way to pull money from people. How about theme parks?

k

Seeing that the last br buy day (27th) didn't make a dent in the amazon graphs where the HD DVD buy day (28th) actually did I can only conlude that br is loosing momentum. Even with the pirates releases. After this the HD DVD player buying frenzy started.

Yes, and take a look at the last 7 days comparing the top 100:

The "Buy Day" caused an increase in sales, and while it's falling, is higher than BD. To me, this indicates more people are rounding out their collection after buying a new HD DVD player and not just focusing on top 10 and top 25.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next 2 weeks.

BD is proprietary because the trademark and license to use the name Blu Ray or even the Blu Ray logo belongs to one company and one company alone - Sony....

Tomorrow Sony tells Panny that they can't use the Blu Ray name and logo and Panny has to come up with a different name for their product. There is a huge difference between one company owning the product called BD and the DVD Forum owning the product called HD DVD.

Even the BDA can't use the BDA logo without Sony's approval. Now isn't that strange....



I don't think you understand how licensing agreements work. (BTW, I am a member of both the DVD Forum and the BDA.) Licenses are usually taken out for long periods of time, usually 5 or 10 years. Sony can't "revoke" Panasonics license "tomorrow." No company would ever set themselves up in a vulnerable situation like that.

As for BD being "proprietary," it's probably no more proprietary than Toshiba controlling the HD-DVD spec. And if you think that HD-DVD is somehow more democratic, I can tell you from experience that is not the case.

I believe the studios were looking for a way to get more profit from the ever decreasing SD DVD disk prices and declining theater ticket sales. I have read HD was "proposed" as a way to boost prices and thereby increase studio profit on disk sales ... the theory was offer "more" resolution and features to justify a higher disk price. If people are so entrenched in cheap disk prices as they are in SD DVD, I doubt there is much incentive for HD disks at or near the same pricing. Sutdios want to charge a premium for HD disks and they want the costs to be on par with SD disk production.

Home theaters destroy theater ticket sales ....
Video on demand will destroy disk sales ....

Studios will have to come up with yet another way to pull money from people. How about theme parks?

k Reselling catalog titles once again, even at lest than full price for day and date new releases is still a good deal.

Myself and a lot of others will rebuy favorite movies again in a HD format. Millions of others would probably buy or rebuy catalog HD titles again for a $5 premium over a standard DVD title at $19,99 or $14.99 or $9.99. A sale of a HD catalog title that was selling nothing as a old standard DVD release is found money for the studio. A day and date release sold at a $5 premium in the volume of millions of copies is found money for the studios.

The studios have HD as a chance to once more sell their catalog at a higher cost as a physical medium at a higher cost than as digital delivery in the future.

One way or another, the studios will have one or both of these HD formats making money for them on or above what they can get from day and date DVD releass.

It's also an experiment to find a pricing sweetspot to entice the next target audience*. If during this experiment they see a sustained higher sales rate then the pricing isn't going up by much if at all. The can even lower the price even more at the expense of the free movie offerings when the promotion ends if the higher sales rate brings in benefits of economics of scale.

Since the br camp isn't yet in a position yet to counter the pricing Toshiba can affors to experiment a little.
I have no doubt that Toshiba can afford to go lower still to counter a bda move if that will happen short term.

(First early adopters next are the *followers waiting for a deal and last everybody else ) Other considerations. Having temporary price reductions (sales rebates etc) is also a way to get consumers to make decisions and to see value in the offer and perceive that they got a bargain. Not only does it serve as a pricing experiment (Toshiba well knows about research on $299 and $199 consumer price points) but it serves to lengthen out the time that sales can be done. By keeping the MSRP and offering $100 off sales throughout the year, retailers can use the MSRP to give them flexibility in pricing at BA&HM stores and more consumers throughout the year can be exposed to "sale" prices at the point of sale when most retail decisions are made.

The increased HD DVD advertising campaign, in cinema and HDTV cable channel spots, and popular press magazine ads will start to gain cumulative affect over the next 30-90 days. As more and more consumers see that broadcast and print campaign, and then go to those retailers over the next few months , more and more consumers will make that point of sale decision to buy an HD DVD player. HD DVD saved its money for this campaign, and it will start to take affect in the future. Sony has already spent its PS3 /Blu-ray support for this year, until the late fall and it does not look like any BDA company is going to heavily advertise a Blu-ray player this year.

HD DVD keep its powder drive during the 1st quarter advertising PR blitz of Blu-ray. Despite pressure to do something about the disc sales disparity from Jan1 thru Mar 18th, they kept to plan.

Now we will begin to see if HD DVD plans of lower mass market pricing and availability of HD DVD players with a matching set of releases supported by appropriate promotion, point of sale and advertising will begin to bear fruit in relation to movie disc sales.