Nielsen/videoscan/musicscan has always, as in for the last twenty years, counted boxsets as one unit in the charts. They have always counted a boxset as one sale. Its chartings and reports are SKU based. retailers and the studios can analyze the data any way they want but the Nielson/Videoscan system is based on retail sales units.

Other considerations. Having temporary price reductions (sales rebates etc) is also a way to get consumers to make decisions and to see value in the offer and perceive that they got a bargain. Not only does it serve as a pricing experiment (Toshiba well knows about research on $299 and $199 consumer price points) but it serves to lengthen out the time that sales can be done. By keeping the MSRP and offering $100 off sales throughout the year, retailers can use the MSRP to give them flexibility in pricing at BA&HM stores and more consumers throughout the year can be exposed to "sale" prices at the point of sale when most retail decisions are made.Do you think that there will be a period (long or short) after June 16th that the prices will go back to where they were? If so, how long do you think it will be and what do you think will happen to player sales during that time?

--Darin

i dont know but blu-ray better think about it now cause what ever mountain they think there on hd dvd is heading up the mountain to knock them off. bd continues to hold on to this were gonna make money to make money thing there into. where hd dvd seems to have this were gonna lose some money to make money! to me its a sound route to go.and to me toshbia has done more to get hd into peoples hands then bd has. its time to stop thinking hd dvd is the underdog,or if you like go ahead and think that. but hd dvd is creeping that mountain,and if the bda doesnt watch it there gonna lose the mountain I beleive Toshiba is making a profit on evry 2nd generation player sale, even with the HD A2 being $399 and the $100 pff rebates being in effect . They are also making more profit on HD A20 and HD XA2 sales.

I do not believe that Toshiba is subsidizing 2nd generation sales as they did do with the HD A1 and HD XA1.

The volumes and common chasis components are saving them a lot in production costs.

The HD A2 will be among the highest volume production model DVD player ever by the end of the year. Now I know there there's zillion more DVD players sold but also hundreds of models. The Toshiba 2nd gen models are in mass production now, second only to the PS3 as a HD player in volume.

Do you think that there will be a period (long or short) after June 16th that the prices will go back to where they were? If so, how long do you think it will be and what do you think will happen to player sales during that time?

--Darin

If you go back into the way back time machine you will see that posted here that after Toshiba's initial 5+4 free promotion, it was going to become a 5 + $100 off promotion.

I believe that after this $100 instant rebate promotion ends, the $100 of promotion will continue, but I don't know if it will continue as an instant rebate or some other form (mail in, store sponsored gift card, the rebate could be offered at only one store for one week, etc.).

I believe the next phase after the $100 off is a restructuring of the free movie promotion, corresponding with a drop in MSRP. I received this info way back at the start of April, and plans after the $100 off hadn't been finalized. The possibility that sounded like the favorite with Toshiba back then was to do away with the mail-in freebies (since that isn't going so well and is sort of a black eye for Toshiba). A couple of boxed in movies would be included, and a signifigant drop in MSRP at the same time (basically something like a $125-150 drop is MSRP).

Even longer range plans were being considered after this, which included removing all free movies and just selling the player at the lowest possible price for the holiday season (Toshiba basically wants at least a $249 MSRP by November 1, and even lower if possible).

But like I said, plans beyond the $100 off promotions were pretty fluid at the time I received the info. I would say $100 off continues, at least on an on and off basis till the 5 free promotion expires. There may be 2-3 weeks were $100 off isn't in effect, but likely all other weeks between no and then will have a $100 off promo in some form, somewhere.

This info is part of the reason I thought everone was way off base with the price of the Wal-Mart Chinese player. If Toshiba is planning at least a $249 MSRP by the holiday (and possible even $199), then a house brand Wal-Mart would have to have a MSRP at least $50 below that, if not more. So I was thinking FY players would be $149-$199 MSRP, with discounts making the price even lower.

This info is part of the reason I thought everone was way off base with the price of the Wal-Mart Chinese player. If Toshiba is planning at least a $249 MSRP by the holiday (and possible even $199), then a house brand Wal-Mart would have to have a MSRP at least $50 below that, if not more. So I was thinking FY players would be $149-$199 MSRP, with discounts making the price even lower.

This has to be a shock to the competition. If this really comes to pass, the P$3 better hope for some killer games to get moving by the holidays because it's usefulness as a movie player will come into question. After all, a HD movie is a HD movie regardless of format.

This has to be a shock to the competition.Well, not any more. :D

I'm a bit late to the game this week, but I'm predicting 53:47 in favor of Blu-ray. Top sellers:

POTC: DMC
PE on HD DVD
Complete Matrix Trilogy

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 5/26/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Ultimate Matrix Collection (War,$119.99)
2 Complete Matrix Trilogy (War, $89.99)
3 Letters From Iwo Jima (War $39.99)
4 Planet Earth: The Complete series (BBC, $99.98)
5 40 Year Old Virgin (Uni, $29.98)
6 The Road Warrior (War, $28.98)
7 Flags Of Our Fathers (Par, $39.98)
8 The Fountain (WB, $39.99)
9 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
10 Smokey And The Bandit (UNI, $29.98)

Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 5/26/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Dis, $34.99)
2 Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl (Dis, $34.99)
3 Apocalypto (Dis, $34.99)
4 Letters From Iwo Jima (WB, $34.98)
5 Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (BBC, $99.98)
6 Casino Royale (Sony, $38.96)
7 Flags Of Our Father (War, $39.99)
8 The Fountain (War, $34.99)
9 The Road Warrior (War, $28.99)
10 The Deaprted (War, $34.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 5/26/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Ultimate Matrix Collection (War,$119.99)
2 Complete Matrix Trilogy (War, $89.99)
3 Letters From Iwo Jima (War $39.99)
4 Planet Earth: The Complete series (BBC, $99.98)
5 40 Year Old Virgin (Uni, $29.98)
6 The Road Warrior (War, $28.98)
7 Flags Of Our Fathers (Par, $39.98)
8 The Fountain (WB, $39.99)
9 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
10 Smokey And The Bandit (UNI, $29.98)

Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 5/26/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Dis, $34.99)
2 Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl (Dis, $34.99)
3 Apocalypto (Dis, $34.99)
4 Letters From Iwo Jima (WB, $34.98)
5 Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (BBC, $99.98)
6 Casino Royale (Sony, $38.96)
7 Flags Of Our Father (War, $39.99)
8 The Fountain (War, $34.99)
9 The Road Warrior (War, $28.99)
10 The Deaprted (War, $34.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.
Whether or not they sold more discs, I am guessing that HD DVD pulled in more $$ this week.

You can do some simple ranking by assuming that same titles on both formats probably sold a little better on Blu-ray. Therefore, Letters on Blu-ray at #4 probably sold more than Letters on HD DVD at #3. This means your top 5 will consist of Pirates, Matrix, and Apocolypto, my guess in that order.

Maybe I'm slow, but I believe your logic is faulty. #3 will certainly sell more than#4.

I beleive Toshiba is making a profit on evry 2nd generation player sale, even with the HD A2 being $399 and the $100 pff rebates being in effect . They are also making more profit on HD A20 and HD XA2 sales.

Not saying you're wrong, but why do you believe this? In other words, how do you know? I know a few people here on AVS that would ready for a straight jacket if that were true and provable. ;)

Bradley

Maybe I'm slow, but I believe your logic is faulty. #3 will certainly sell more than#4.

no his logic is OK, Letters From Iwo Jima will sell more on BD, so #4 on BD will be more than #3 on HD-DVD

M.

oops, you're referring to the Top titles list, aren't you? I was thinking of the Amazon rankings where #3 has to be outselling #4.

oops, you're referring to the Top titles list, aren't you? I was thinking of the Amazon rankings where #3 has to be outselling #4.

I think he was talking about TOP TITLES list :)

Marek

no his logic is OK, Letters From Iwo Jima will sell more on BD, so #4 on BD will be more than #3 on HD-DVD

M.

But #4 on HD DVD is Planet Earth and #5 on BD is Planet Earth, and so far Planet Earth on HD DVD has been selling better.

I'm a bit late to the game this week, but I'm predicting 53:47 in favor of Blu-ray. Top sellers:

POTC: DMC
PE on HD DVD
Complete Matrix Trilogy

Hmmm. Last week was 58-42 (many people thought the ratio would be less). My guess is that it will be at least that. I will guess 59-41 or 60-40.

Not saying you're wrong, but why do you believe this? In other words, how do you know? I know a few people here on AVS that would ready for a straight jacket if that were true and provable. ;)

Bradley Logic and some conversations I have had with people that should know.

First off Toshiba is planning to sell millions of these second generation units this year. Millions. This is not a game console with Toshiba having a royaly game like revenue stream. They have shipped 100,000s of thousands of units. They have common chassis for 6 or more 2nd gen model units with mostly common guts assembled in commodity like fashion. At its core a HD DVD player is a DVD player with a different motherboard and fancier laser for the optics. With blu-violet lasers dropping to commodity pricing and low cost assembly, the most expensive parts are being bought and assembled in larger quantities than any other model.

These 2nd gen chassis are being produced in over million volumes, much more than the 1st gen players, maybe 20x or 50x the volume.

Even though its not a true SoC design, their are a lot of 2nd gen Toshibas in all flavors being shipped.

Plus I personally have been told by a Toshiba executive that the second generation models would not be sold at a loss to Toshiba. And that person's comments to me have been totally accurate.

Logically at this point Toshiba has no incentive to subsidize the 2nd gen models, with the kind of dealer rebates and channel promotions it is offering.

It may have made sense to subsidize 50,000 or so 1st gen units to some degree, I think less than iSuppli estimated, but the volumes being produced and shipped for the HD A2 do not support that. Toshiba is a conservatiev company and even if you think they are doing that for the future or to increase HDTV Plasma sales, its a stretch.

You can do some simple ranking by assuming that same titles on both formats probably sold a little better on Blu-ray. Therefore, Letters on Blu-ray at #4 probably sold more than Letters on HD DVD at #3. This means your top 5 will consist of Pirates, Matrix, and Apocolypto, my guess in that order.

Seems likely. It would also be likely that Planet Earth on HD DVD outsold the BD version with about 25-30% based on last couple of weeks. Based on Amazon ranks compared to same ranks earlier it could actually be a little more this week.

Estimates based on previous weeks would be something like this.

HD DVD
4 Planet Earth: The Complete series (BBC, $99.98) 4000 copies
9 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99) 1000 copies

BD
5 Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (BBC, $99.98) 3000 copies
6 Casino Royale (Sony, $38.96) 2000 copies
10 The Departed (War, $34.99) 800 copies

I would guess
100% Pirates
95% Pirates 2
65% Matrix Ultimate
50% Matrix Complete
50% Apocalypto
35% Letters BD
30% Letters HD DVD
20% Planet Earth HD

So Pirates at around 20.000 and Matrix at around 10.000. Off course we won't know for sure unless a studio makes some announcement for hard numbers

It's interesting to see though how all the new releases are already slipping on Amazon while PE is still in top 10. If it can keep selling 3-4000 a week for awhile it will stay the best grossing title for a long time.

A Blu-ray player is tougher to get to the level of theHD A2 cost because of the increased complexity of the optics to read at the Blu-ray layer and the overall lower volume of production and the delays in specifications etc leading to longer lead times.

Plus you have the pricing and marketing strategy of the BDA hardware companies and the early complexity of having to compete with the 20 GB PS3 price point.

At time, I think its only a short period of time before HD DVD standalone player lower prices and increased sales over Blu-ray standalones start showing up in the movie sales numbers.

Is this news?

In the first of what observers expect will be many high-profile title showdowns, Buena Vista Home Entertainment on May 22 released the first two “Pirates of the Caribbean” movies on Blu-ray Disc, just before the third installment in the blockbuster franchise opened on the big screen.

The same day, Warner Home Video released two “Matrix” collections on the rival HD DVD format.

Within a week, consumers had spent more than $2 million on those releases alone, according to Home Media Magazine market research estimates. The two “Pirates” films sold a combined total of nearly 47,000 units, while the higher-priced “Matrix” sets sold about 13,900 units.

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10717

I beleive Toshiba is making a profit on evry 2nd generation player sale, even with the HD A2 being $399 and the $100 pff rebates being in effect . They are also making more profit on HD A20 and HD XA2 sales.
I do not believe that Toshiba is subsidizing 2nd generation sales as they did do with the HD A1 and HD XA1.
Plus I personally have been told by a Toshiba executive that the second generation models would be sold at a loss to Toshiba. And that person's comments to me have been totally accurate.I'm confused. Are they making a profit or sold at a loss?

It's obvious that Kosty believes based on his sources that the G2 players are not subsidized. How is that hard to figure out....

His most recent statement takes precedence.

Is this news?

In the first of what observers expect will be many high-profile title showdowns, Buena Vista Home Entertainment on May 22 released the first two “Pirates of the Caribbean” movies on Blu-ray Disc, just before the third installment in the blockbuster franchise opened on the big screen.

The same day, Warner Home Video released two “Matrix” collections on the rival HD DVD format.

Within a week, consumers had spent more than $2 million on those releases alone, according to Home Media Magazine market research estimates. The two “Pirates” films sold a combined total of nearly 47,000 units, while the higher-priced “Matrix” sets sold about 13,900 units.


http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10717

Looks like news to me.

Not quite sure how 'Home Media Magazine market research estimates' compares to nielsen. Looks like I got Pirates a little low and Matrix a little high. If those numbers are correct it will certainly be more than 60/40.

This from same story should also give us some info. Or did we know this already? Can't remember.

In March, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment announced it had shipped 100,000 Blu-ray Disc copies of another new theatrical, Casino Royale, which as of the end of April had sold 74,280 units.

Plus I personally have been told by a Toshiba executive that the second generation models would not be sold at a loss to Toshiba. And that person's comments to me have been totally accurate.I was going to ask if you were missing a "not", but see you caught it. I am curious as to why you think Toshiba's prices are so high around the world (at least from what I've read) if they aren't losing any money on the players at $238 to $299 to consumers in the US. From what I've seen, in some places their entry level pricing isn't that far from the 60GB PS3 pricing.

--Darin

At time, I think its only a short period of time before HD DVD standalone player lower prices and increased sales over Blu-ray standalones start showing up in the movie sales numbers.

Well I guess we won't have too long to wait to see if your theories are true... :)

Something to consider... if the Toshiba A2 is priced so low, do you think that the reaction will be "What is wrong with this one if it is so cheap? And why is there only Toshiba players for this format?"

Actually I am sure that you don't think that, but consider the normal people in a store...

Do you buy the one that is cheaper, comes with a rebate, comes with free discs and is pretty much the only option for the format?

For me, the piles of discounts and 'exclusivity' would raise a red flag...

Looking forward to this weeks percentages... :D

In the first of what observers expect will be many high-profile title showdowns, Buena Vista Home Entertainment on May 22 released the first two “Pirates of the Caribbean” movies on Blu-ray Disc, just before the third installment in the blockbuster franchise opened on the big screen.

The same day, Warner Home Video released two “Matrix” collections on the rival HD DVD format.

Within a week, consumers had spent more than $2 million on those releases alone, according to Home Media Magazine market research estimates. The two “Pirates” films sold a combined total of nearly 47,000 units, while the higher-priced “Matrix” sets sold about 13,900 units.

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10717

Interesting how both "Pirates" movies are lumped together to make it seem like an impressive number of close to 50,000 copies instead of a more realistic 20-25,000 copies per "Pirates" movie. It assumes everybody that bought one of the "Pirates" movies bought both. Regardless, both "Pirates" and "Matrix" join "Planet Earth" as evergreen franchises (ala "Batman Begins" and "Casino Royale") guaranteed to keep selling to new buyers of either format (new PS3 and HD-A2 owners mainly) when they start shopping for new toys.

It's obvious that Kosty believes based on his sources that the G2 players are not subsidized. How is that hard to figure out....He forgot a word, and I'm to blame? In a thread where you spread misinformation about BD50 costs and licensing and are refuted by insiders, I want to make sure I'm reading things right

Quick math says, $ for $, it was actually pretty darn close between pirates and matrix.

It isn't an accurate representation to say 47,000 Pirates v. 13,900 Matrix 'units'

13,900 Matrix Sets = 41,700 Movies

Obviously that isn't the way it is counted by nielsen. But considering the price of the Matrix Box Sets I think it did decently, but it is lower than I expected. I am kinda disappointed in both Pirates and Matix, how many copies of Casino Royale were sold in its first week? It just seems like Pirates should of been higher given its popularity and the theatrical release of the 3rd one. Matrix should of been higher because of the Toshiba $100 off promotion and the "buy The Matrix Trilogy with a HD-A2 and get two free movies"

It isn't an accurate representation to say 47,000 Pirates v. 13,900 Matrix 'units'

13,900 Matrix Sets = 41,700 Movies

Obviously that isn't the way it is counted by nielsen. But considering the price of the Matrix Box Sets I think it did decently, but it is lower than I expected. I am kinda disappointed in both Pirates and Matix, how many copies of Casino Royale were sold in its first week? It just seems like Pirates should of been higher given its popularity and the theatrical release of the 3rd one. Matrix should of been higher because of the Toshiba $100 off promotion and the "buy The Matrix Trilogy with a HD-A2 and get two free movies"

Casino Royale was a new release. The POC movies have been out for a long time and are already owned by many people.

It isn't an accurate representation to say 47,000 Pirates v. 13,900 Matrix 'units'

13,900 Matrix Sets = 41,700 Movies

Obviously that isn't the way it is counted by nielsen. But considering the price of the Matrix Box Sets I think it did decently, but it is lower than I expected. I am kinda disappointed in both Pirates and Matix, how many copies of Casino Royale were sold in its first week? It just seems like Pirates should of been higher given its popularity and the theatrical release of the 3rd one. Matrix should of been higher because of the Toshiba $100 off promotion and the "buy The Matrix Trilogy with a HD-A2 and get two free movies"

I don't think the Pirates films should have sold higher. They are catalog titles which sold in the multiple milllions on their first day when released on DVD. I think you'll find that a lot of people, including most of the new HD-A2 owners, are not going to be replacing/rebuying their DVD collection. Now when Pirates 3 is released on Blu-ray, I think you can expect it to easily outsell Casino Royale, even when adjusting for relative player base at times of release.

Matrix is the same deal, especially considering most people who are big fans probably already have the Ultimate Collection on DVD. You are also probably overestimating how many people are willing to buy the second and third movies to get the first on HD. I expect a lot of them are simply waiting for the first to be sold separately.

How is the ratio calculated?

By unit or gross revenue? If it's by unit, the #s for this week will be skewed in blu-ray's favor.



More realistically, pirates 1 & 2 sold 47,000 movies * $25 = $1.175 mil.
matrix sold 13,900 x 3 = 41700 movies
13900 * $69 = $959k

Sales ratio by movie = 53:47 blu-ray
Sales ratio by $ = 55:45 blu-ray
Sales ratio by unit = 77:23 blu-ray


If a lot of people were buying the matrix at msrp, the ratio by $$ would be more even.

How is the ratio calculated?

By unit or gross revenue? If it's by unit, the #s for this week will be skewed in blu-ray's favor.

It is by unit.

It is by unit.

That means the # will skew towards blu-ray. Nevertheless, I'll stick to my guess for this week of 64:36 blu-ray.

Edit: 64:36

JB here believes BD 50 disks do not cost more than HD DVD 30 disks to replicate. If an insider is refuting that, I'd habe no problem saying that insider was clearly misinformed or was misinforming....

JB, so what's your source here?

I think I was expecting too much from Pirates and Matrix :confused:

I think I was expecting too much from Pirates and Matrix :confused:

I was thinking potc would sell combined of 100k+ & matrix maybe 20-30k. lol

Just shows how incredibly weak the hi def formats still are.

Well, it's too late to update my forecast, but I think it'll be in the 70+:30- range for BR. Looking at $$$, it will be much closer than that - maybe 55:45 or so, but that's the way the numbers are calculated.

That means the # will skew towards blu-ray. Nevertheless, I'll stick to my guess for this week of 64:46 blu-ray.


Your ratio equals 110.

JB here believes BD 50 disks do not cost more than HD DVD 30 disks to replicate. If an insider is refuting that, I'd habe no problem saying that insider was clearly misinformed or was misinforming....

JB, so what's your source here?

I see you are trying to turn it around on him, but if you can't even be honest when you do that how are we to ever believe you about anything?

You said that the HD DVD "Flipper" disks cost less than BD50s. Now you are trying to say you said just HD DVD 30s.

It isn't an accurate representation to say 47,000 Pirates v. 13,900 Matrix 'units'

13,900 Matrix Sets = 41,700 Movies


If you sold them separately, how many people would bother with the 2nd and 3rd movie?

Your ratio equals 110.

I meant 64:36 :o

Maybe someone needs to critique my other calculations too. lol

If you sold them separately, how many people would bother with the 2nd and 3rd movie?

Probably a lot less than 14,000.

I meant 64:36 :o

Maybe someone needs to critique my other calculations too. lol

Theres no shame in trying to give 110%...or so my football coach used to tell me =)

If you sold them separately, how many people would bother with the 2nd and 3rd movie?

Just yet another reason why this "comparison" is impossible to make. Different films, different audiences, different formats, different prices, different packaging configurations.

Regardless, the total amount of money made seems to be (a) small and (b) equal. So I'm not sure why any publication would try to make this into a "showdown", except of course to liven up an otherwise boring story.

I see you are trying to turn it around on him, but if you can't even be honest when you do that how are we to ever believe you about anything?And to turn it around on him:

Plazman, are you admitting you were spreading misinformation about licensing, when kjack and jimby_99 (both confirmed by AVS as insiders) corrected you?
JB, so what's your source here?The old insider's thread.

It isn't an accurate representation to say 47,000 Pirates v. 13,900 Matrix 'units'

13,900 Matrix Sets = 41,700 Movies

Obviously that isn't the way it is counted by nielsen. But considering the price of the Matrix Box Sets I think it did decently, but it is lower than I expected. I am kinda disappointed in both Pirates and Matix, how many copies of Casino Royale were sold in its first week? It just seems like Pirates should of been higher given its popularity and the theatrical release of the 3rd one. Matrix should of been higher because of the Toshiba $100 off promotion and the "buy The Matrix Trilogy with a HD-A2 and get two free movies"

Your calculation is however misleading.

Had the titles been released individually, there is no reason to think that they would have sold 3 times as many copies.

Many people have posted that they only want the first title anyway. IMHO, the first is a classic, the second was terrible, and I mercifully skipped the third, so there is no way I would purchase all three, but I would probably buy the box just to get the first, if it were available in Blu-ray.

I was thinking potc would sell combined of 100k+ & matrix maybe 20-30k. lol

Just shows how incredibly weak the hi def formats still are.

I was thinking ~25k Matrix sets and ~70k combined for Pirates

JB here believes BD 50 disks do not cost more than HD DVD 30 disks to replicate. If an insider is refuting that, I'd habe no problem saying that insider was clearly misinformed or was misinforming....

JB, so what's your source here?

An important question is how important the manfacturing cost really is.

Warners has stated that their THD format is not "materially" [their word] more expensive than either an HD DVD or a Blu-ray. It certainly makes sense that it is more expensive, so the trick is the word "materially".

From the manufacturing cost estimates I have read, the manufacturing costs of all of these disks are so small relative to wholesale/retail pricing that it is hardly significant.

Your calculation is however misleading.

Had the titles been released individually, there is no reason to think that they would have sold 3 times as many copies.

Many people have posted that they only want the first title anyway. IMHO, the first is a classic, the second was terrible, and I mercifully skipped the third, so there is no way I would purchase all three, but I would probably buy the box just to get the first, if it were available in Blu-ray.

It's not misleading it is true. Each set is 3 movies, it doesn't matter if someone "really doesn't want Matrix 2" if someone buys one of the box sets they buy all 3 movies. Just like the mission impossible box set, if someone didn't like MI:2 but purchased the boxset, well then too bad they purchased all 3 movies.

It doesn't matter what hypothetically would of happened if all three Matrix movies were released individually, the only think that matters is what has happened.

Your calculation is however misleading.

Had the titles been released individually, there is no reason to think that they would have sold 3 times as many copies.

Many people have posted that they only want the first title anyway. IMHO, the first is a classic, the second was terrible, and I mercifully skipped the third, so there is no way I would purchase all three, but I would probably buy the box just to get the first, if it were available in Blu-ray.

Of course, you are also not counting the people that didn't buy the box set but would have purchased only the first movie....

Of course, you are also not counting the people that didn't buy the box set but would have purchased only the first movie....

Indeed, count me in as one who would have ignored the 2nd and the 3rd.

Any chance Apocalypto will sell more than 14,000?

It's not misleading it is true. Each set is 3 movies, it doesn't matter if someone "really doesn't want Matrix 2" if someone buys one of the box sets they buy all 3 movies. Just like the mission impossible box set, if someone didn't like MI:2 but purchased the boxset, well then too bad they purchased all 3 movies.

It doesn't matter what hypothetically would of happened if all three Matrix movies were released individually, the only think that matters is what has happened.

It doesn't matter however you want to spin it or what rationalizations you come up to make you sleep better at nights. As far as Nielsen VideoScan concerns, both Matrix sets counts as one unit. Their sale figures are based on unit sold, not gross revenue. The Nielsen ratio for these movies alone will be 77:23. In the grand scheme of things, you will never see this:

Blu-ray Total Units sold: 1,500,000
HD DVD Totla Units sold: 1,100,000**

** The Matrix sets are counted as one unit.

kjack supplies chips that are used ONLY in BD players AFAIK. So, IF he said that replication costs are the same for both he was probably misinformed as well. IMO.

I don't recall him correcting me on the insiders thread. However, if you do find the post, you could reference it to jog my memory. However, I can see him claiming something like this....

Amir should change his sig to say, supplier of codecs for both BD and HD DVD, and then we can take his info about BD costs and use that as fact :)

At best individual sales of the 3 would have total 2x as there are many people who like each sequel correspondingly less. I happen to like the first two and not so fond of Revolutions. As is, I'm still hoping to get the Complete Set, but hopefully in a bundle deal with an A2. :D

I would anticipate Apocalypto to have outsold both Matrix boxed sets, simply by virtue of larger install base, lower price. Given that the MI trilogy was released separately, I wonder when the Matrix movies will be released individually, as well.

OK, BD 50 disks are more expensive to manifacture than ANY HD DVD disks, flipper or not. Sorry. Should have specified that.

OK, BD 50 disks are more expensive to manifacture than ANY HD DVD disks, flipper or not. Sorry. Should have specified that.

It sure isn't showing at the register. :o Do you have a source?

OK, BD 50 disks are more expensive to manifacture than ANY HD DVD disks, flipper or not. Sorry. Should have specified that.

Whats your source for that?

It sure isn't showing at the register. :o Do you have a source?

it has been revealed by a replicator insider in the insider's thread that even single BD disk cost marginally more than double layer HD DVD disks to make.

it has been revealed by a replicator insider in the insider's thread that even single BD disk cost marginally more than double layer HD DVD disks to make.

And what about the flipper disks?

And what about the flipper disks? the said replicator does not do HD DVD/DVD combo disks during the time the post was made ;) . how expensive it is to print a DVD9 anyway :p

the said replicator does not do HD DVD/DVD combo disks during the time the post was made ;) . how expensive it is to print a DVD9 anyway :p

Probably pretty cheap =) But an HD DVD 30 and a DVD 9 sandwitched on top sounds like you would need special equipment.

How long ago was the post you are referring to made, and can the person who made it be queried if the knowledge still holds true?

the said replicator does not do HD DVD/DVD combo disks during the time the post was made ;) . how expensive it is to print a DVD9 anyway :p

So does that mean it's pure rapage on the current pricing of combos or are they more expensive than the material from Fox's vault? :p

I'd definitely be interested in the timing, as well. As we've seen with Sony's diodes, they are vastly cheaper these days. ;) Are combos more than gluing a DVD9 to an HDDVD and if so, why wasn't this line doing it?

Probably pretty cheap =) But an HD DVD 30 and a DVD 9 sandwitched on top sounds like you would need special equipment.

How long ago was the post you are referring to made, and can the person who made it be queried if the knowledge still holds true?


the post was made by him:

PacificDisc
name withheld upon request
Sean - PacificDisc
HD DVD & Blu-ray Replication Insider

i am too lazy to search for it. be my guess people :p

oh here is the public quote for HD DVD and BD on his company's website:

http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/3714/pasificdiskcp2.jpg


http://www.pacificdisc.com/PricingHD-DVD.html


now imagine the minimum $20,000 loss on The Departed (100K units x minimum $0.20 (DL HD DVD vs SL BD replication cost difference) incurred on Warner :D :D :D :D :D .. now imagine the subsidy on BD replication is removed :eek: :eek:

It doesn't matter however you want to spin it or what rationalizations you come up to make you sleep better at nights. As far as Nielsen VideoScan concerns, both Matrix sets counts as one unit. Their sale figures are based on unit sold, not gross revenue. The Nielsen ratio for these movies alone will be 77:23. In the grand scheme of things, you will never see this:

I never said they counted each movie individually. But the fact remains that each box set sold is 3 movies. So when comparing the sales it is only accurate to take that into account. If anyone thinks that a $69.99 Boxset would sell as much as a $24 movie then they're crazy. And that's being generous since Best Buy and CC sell the trilogies for $79.99 and $89.99.
It doesn't matter how you want to spin it...13,900 boxsets were sold. Which is also

The Matrix 13,900
The Matrix Reloaded 13,900
The Matrix Revolutions 13,900

That is just the way it is whether you like it or not.

I never said they counted each movie individually. But the fact remains that each box set sold is 3 movies. So when comparing the sales it is only accurate to take that into account. If anyone thinks that a $69.99 Boxset would sell as much as a $24 movie then they're crazy. And that's being generous since Best Buy and CC sell the trilogies for $79.99 and $89.99.
It doesn't matter how you want to spin it...13,900 boxsets were sold. Which is also

The Matrix 13,900
The Matrix Reloaded 13,900
The Matrix Revolutions 13,900

That is just the way it is whether you like it or not.

I dont see it like that. There was no choice other then a single sku per set, so they bought 1 box set, not 3 box sets, to get the movies. So there were 13,900 box sets sold. Thats it. You cant split them up because that is impossible to do.

If anyone thinks that a $69.99 Boxset would sell as much as a $24 movie then they're crazy.

Honestly, do you know of anyone who bought 1 Pirate movie? Even though they are sold separately, I'll bet 90% of us bought both together, so it's around $50+ still. Not a huge leap from the matrix sets.

Honestly, do you know of anyone who bought 1 Pirate movie? Even though they are sold separately, I'll bet 90% of us bought both together, so it's around $50+ still. Not a huge leap from the matrix sets.

I would of purchased Black Pearl only, I thought the 2nd one was a dud

I never said they counted each movie individually. But the fact remains that each box set sold is 3 movies. So when comparing the sales it is only accurate to take that into account. If anyone thinks that a $69.99 Boxset would sell as much as a $24 movie then they're crazy. And that's being generous since Best Buy and CC sell the trilogies for $79.99 and $89.99.
It doesn't matter how you want to spin it...13,900 boxsets were sold. Which is also

The Matrix 13,900
The Matrix Reloaded 13,900
The Matrix Revolutions 13,900

That is just the way it is whether you like it or not.

Oh god not this again. I thought we were finally past fiddling with the Nielsen numbers to include the Toshiba freebies. Now you want to count all the disks in a box set as sold movies too? Lets count every movie on the Animatrix as a movie sold as well, because they are all by different directors/studios.

I see where you are coming from, and it would be very interesting in terms of finding out just how many disks for each format have been produced -- though I think between movies and games BD has the edge there too.

What we are here to talk about is the Nielsen numbers which represent units sold. If Toshiba or Warner wanted the Matrix to be counted as more than 1 unit it was completely up to them to not make it a bundle. I guarantee the DVD Ultimate Matrix collection was counted as one unit as well, and some day when the stars align the Blu-ray version will also count as one unit. What makes HD DVD special?

I dont see it like that. There was no choice other then a single sku per set, so they bought 1 box set, not 3 box sets, to get the movies. So there were 13,900 box sets sold. Thats it. You cant split them up because that is impossible to do.

How many times do I have to say that the movies are not going to be counted individually? I am just trying to see if I can get any Blu-doy to admit that The Matrix Trilogy really sold 41,700 movies.

Oh god not this again. I thought we were finally past fiddling with the Nielsen numbers to include the Toshiba freebies. Now you want to count all the disks in a box set as sold movies too? Lets count every movie on the Animatrix as a movie sold as well, because they are all by different directors/studios.

I see where you are coming from, and it would be very interesting in terms of finding out just how many disks for each format have been produced -- though I think between movies and games BD has the edge there too.

What we are here to talk about is the Nielsen numbers which represent units sold. If Toshiba or Warner wanted the Matrix to be counted as more than 1 unit it was completely up to them to not make it a bundle. I guarantee the DVD Ultimate Matrix collection was counted as one unit as well, and some day when the stars align the Blu-ray version will also count as one unit. What makes HD DVD special?

How many damn times do I have to say that the movies aren't going to be counted individually? This has got to be the fifth time in my past six posts. I am just curious whether any Blu-boys will admit that 41,700 copies of Matrix movies were sold.

Nevermind, this is like trying to argue with a wall. I'm not going to sit here all night to explain the complexities of three movies in one package. I am definitely not going to explain the basics of multiplication.

I dont see it like that. There was no choice other then a single sku per set, so they bought 1 box set, not 3 box sets, to get the movies. So there were 13,900 box sets sold. Thats it. You cant split them up because that is impossible to do.

Yes, it is true that consumers did not have a choice and the sequels would not have sold as many when split up, but sales of the first movie would have multiplied exponentially. Matrix 1 at $20 would have shattered records.

How many damn times do I have to say that the movies aren't going to be counted individually? This has got to be the fifth time in my past six posts. I am just curious whether any Blu-boys will admit that 41,700 copies of Matrix movies were sold.

I don't have a problem admitting that 41,700 movies were sold. I didn't realize anybody else did. I have a problem with an asterisk or something being placed next to units sold or the ratio for this week, unless you are planning on also keeping track when the Blu-ray Matrix set comes out, at which point the difference will be somewhat nullified. And if thats the case why bother at all?

Yes, it is true that consumers did not have a choice and the sequels would not have sold as many when split up, but sales of the first movie would have multiplied exponentially. Matrix 1 at $20 would have shattered records.

No doubt about it.

Nevermind, this is like trying to argue with a wall. I'm not going to sit here all night to explain the complexities of three movies in one package. I am definitely not going to explain the basics of multiplication.

I think you need to relax, dude. We're all just here to talk about the Nielsen numbers, and sales in general.

Yes, it is true that consumers did not have a choice and the sequels would not have sold as many when split up, but sales of the first movie would have multiplied exponentially. Matrix 1 at $20 would have shattered records.

Woulda.. Coulda.. Shoulda..

Listen guys, only 13,900 copies of the box set were sold. End of story. You cant say it was 13,900x3, because it is not possible to buy the 3 discs 13,900 times, only 1 box set 13,900 times.

I also agree that Matrix 1 alone would have done extremely well, but not even close to the amount people are trying to make it seem like it would sell.

The simple fact is that each PoTC title sold around 20K plus per disk and the Matrix sold 13.9K. IF the numbers being reported are correct.

To me the ratio between PoTC and the Matrix is wider than I would expected, but the total units difference is much smaller (I thought each PoTC version would sell 50-60K, with the Matrix selling around 40K for both sets). I was basing this on 1.5 M BD players and 130K HD DVD players. The volume is important and it sucks for either format. Not sure how much hardware has to sell to get respectable sales....

Honestly, do you know of anyone who bought 1 Pirate movie? Even though they are sold separately, I'll bet 90% of us bought both together, so it's around $50+ still. Not a huge leap from the matrix sets.

Ok, so if your rationale is that everyone bought BOTH POTC movies, then why not divide the Neilsen numbers for POTS by 2 and call that the actual sales numbers? This is silly...how can you count 3 Matrix movies as one? That makes no sense. It frikkin cost three times as much as each POTC movie...what the hell kind of comparison is this?

It's also silly to say "No one would have bought the 2nd and 3rd Matrix movies". Who cares what people "would have" done? We're talking about what people DID!!! And what people DID was buy over 13,000 Matrix box sets which included THREE movies. To get the number of Matrix "MOVIES" sold, multiply that number by THREE. A 4 year old can figure this out.

Gosh!

We are comparing two completely different things. A box set with 3 movies that cost about $80, and an individual movie that cost about $25.

It's like saying "Oh my gosh, Cars are outselling houses 3-to-1". Yes....yes, that is essentially what you are doing.

An important question is how important the manfacturing cost really is.

Warners has stated that their THD format is not "materially" [their word] more expensive than either an HD DVD or a Blu-ray. It certainly makes sense that it is more expensive, so the trick is the word "materially".

From the manufacturing cost estimates I have read, the manufacturing costs of all of these disks are so small relative to wholesale/retail pricing that it is hardly significant.

A small price difference at the studio is multiplied by the time it reaches retail. So a small change at the front means a bigger change at retail. I would eastimate that even a $.20 increase at the replication stage will relate to around $1 increase at the retail level. So if you start talking a $1 difference at replication, you are talking $5 by the time you reach retail pricing.

Probably pretty cheap =) But an HD DVD 30 and a DVD 9 sandwitched on top sounds like you would need special equipment.

How long ago was the post you are referring to made, and can the person who made it be queried if the knowledge still holds true?


Special equipment is not needed. The same machines that run DVD9 can run HD DVD combo discs with HD DVD modifications in place. So in theory, take the cost difference of a DVD5 and a HD30 and add to it the cost difference between DVD5 and DVD9, and you could come up with a rough estimate for HD DVD combo discs.

Woulda.. Coulda.. Shoulda..

Listen guys, only 13,900 copies of the box set were sold. End of story. You cant say it was 13,900x3, because it is not possible to buy the 3 discs 13,900 times, only 1 box set 13,900 times.

I also agree that Matrix 1 alone would have done extremely well, but not even close to the amount people are trying to make it seem like it would sell.

All I know is that studios only care about how much money they made, and not necessarily the number of units it took to get there. So regardless of how Nielsen reports the info, in the studios eyes, $ performance was close to equal, and that's really all that matters.

Plus the way I see it, if you want to do things strictly by how Nielsen reports, the likely each PotC film sold ~25k copies vs. ~14k copies of the Matrix. This is less than the 2:1 general sales ratio that is claimed to exist between BD and HD DVD. So what this tells the HD DVD camp is that with an $80 box set, they can actually improve the status quo against a single $25 movie of equal popularity. I think that is a plus when trying to promote HD DVD to studios.

I would also just like to state the obvious. As months have gone buy and BD overall hasn't improved the sales ratio beyond 2:1 (I would say it has actully narrowed), would indicate that equipment used by consumers to play HD DVD is selling equally or perhaps marginally better to equipment used to play Blu-ray. Either that, or if BD hardware is actually outselling HD DVD hardware, then the extra hardware is being sold to a demographic that only rents discs and doesn't purchase. Is that the type of demographic a studio wants to invest in?

Oh god not this again. I thought we were finally past fiddling with the Nielsen numbers to include the Toshiba freebies. Now you want to count all the disks in a box set as sold movies too? Lets count every movie on the Animatrix as a movie sold as well, because they are all by different directors/studios.

I see where you are coming from, and it would be very interesting in terms of finding out just how many disks for each format have been produced -- though I think between movies and games BD has the edge there too.

What we are here to talk about is the Nielsen numbers which represent units sold. If Toshiba or Warner wanted the Matrix to be counted as more than 1 unit it was completely up to them to not make it a bundle. I guarantee the DVD Ultimate Matrix collection was counted as one unit as well, and some day when the stars align the Blu-ray version will also count as one unit. What makes HD DVD special?

Yeah ...lets start counting TV season box sets as individual discs! Better yet, lets start counting each episodes! Instead of one unit for each Heroes Season 1 box set, we should count it as 22 units for each box set! Where does it stop? Studios make and market box set for a reason and they certainly don't market it as 3 individual titles.

I never said they counted each movie individually. But the fact remains that each box set sold is 3 movies. So when comparing the sales it is only accurate to take that into account. If anyone thinks that a $69.99 Boxset would sell as much as a $24 movie then they're crazy. And that's being generous since Best Buy and CC sell the trilogies for $79.99 and $89.99.
It doesn't matter how you want to spin it...13,900 boxsets were sold. Which is also

The Matrix 13,900
The Matrix Reloaded 13,900
The Matrix Revolutions 13,900

That is just the way it is whether you like it or not.

Nielsen officially considers the Matrix Box Set as ONE UNIT. THAT IS JUST THE WAY IT IS WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT.

The simple fact is that each PoTC title sold around 20K plus per disk and the Matrix sold 13.9K. IF the numbers being reported are correct.

To me the ratio between PoTC and the Matrix is wider than I would expected, but the total units difference is much smaller (I thought each PoTC version would sell 50-60K, with the Matrix selling around 40K for both sets). I was basing this on 1.5 M BD players and 130K HD DVD players. The volume is important and it sucks for either format. Not sure how much hardware has to sell to get respectable sales....

If you want to round numbers, please at least do it accurately and without bias. Both PotC movies sold for a combined 47,000 discs ...47,000/2 = 23,500. If you want to round the numbers, its 25k. I notice you used the exact numbers for The Matrix ...13.9k. Would you have a problem if I restate your sentence using my bias?

The simple fact is that each PoTC title sold around 23.5K plus per disk and the Matrix sold 10K. IF the numbers being reported are correct.

I was basing this on 1.5 M BD players and 130K HD DVD players.Not sure where you got the 130k for HD DVD players, but if you are counting the PS3 then you better count the XBOX360 add-ons (which is probably close to 150k just in the US, or whatever NPD covers, by now).

--Darin

How many times do I have to say that the movies are not going to be counted individually? I am just trying to see if I can get any Blu-doy to admit that The Matrix Trilogy really sold 41,700 movies.

If Warner had sold them seperately they would probably have sold in the ratio 100:40:20.

Most people love the first one, tolerated the second and hated the third.

WB knew this so they effectively forced customers to take all three whether they like them or not.

Your argument is flawed as it supposes that all three Matrix films would sell equally well.

all i know is that i was right again.

i predicted that the matrix box set wouldnt be that groundbraker title for hd-dvd like it was for dvd that time. even with the 100$ reduction for the hd-dvd player and all the promotion behind it only made the matrix sell 14k max. unbelievble low.

that said, sales of pirates are pretty low too. i would have expected sales between 50k - 60k for single.

what we can all learn from this, is that we still have a very far way to go until either format wins or comes even close for being accepted.

based on this sales media, i see 2 dead formats. just 1 is less dead then the other.

If Warner had sold them seperately they would probably have sold in the ratio 100:40:20.

Most people love the first one, tolerated the second and hated the third.

WB knew this so they effectively forced customers to take all three whether they like them or not.

Your argument is flawed as it supposes that all three Matrix films would sell equally well.

No, I am not arguing that all 3 movies would have sold equally well. It doesn't matter what the hypothetical sales for the movies would of been as individual releases. I am simply stating that 13,900 boxsets which comprise of 3 movies each makes for a total of 41,700 movies. End of story

what we can all learn from this, is that we still have a very far way to go until either format wins or comes even close for being accepted.


I cannot believe it myself, but it's true. HD disc formats are in a serious mess.

based on this sales media, i see 2 dead formats. just 1 is less dead then the other.

Too true.

Grubert? Are you gonna have the percentages for us soon? Seems like the crowd is getting impatient :)

Should we remind everybody that this is a thread about salesfigures. I'll be the first to admit that I stray from hard Nielsen facts quite alot but at least it relates to sales numbers. Replication costs have nothing whatsoever to do with this thread.

Grubert? Are you gonna have the percentages for us soon? Seems like the crowd is getting impatient :)

I bet they're sleeping in Hollywood. I bet they're sleeping all over America. ;)

Should we remind everybody that this is a thread about salesfigures. I'll be the first to admit that I stray from hard Nielsen facts quite alot but at least it relates to sales numbers. Replication costs have nothing whatsoever to do with this thread.

Agreed.

There are other topics more directly related. Such as, if HD DVD player sales have really skyrocketed (a Toshiba spokesperson talked about a five to tenfold increase), why don't software sales follow suit?

I bet they're sleeping in Hollywood. I bet they're sleeping all over America. ;)



Agreed.

There are other topics more directly related. Such as, if HD DVD player sales have really skyrocketed (a Toshiba spokesperson talked about a five to tenfold increase), why don't software sales follow suit?


This is just my guess, but logics say they will IF sales have "skyroceted" but I guess time will tell, on the other hand we don´t know more than these three titles. Perhaps (wishful thinking?) the weekly percentage is not so much different from previous weeks (despite pirates) which makes me think that the three following weeks will show indication wether or not the hardware sales have gained enough momentum or if it is just enough to keep up with the ps3 effect.

We are comparing two completely different things. A box set with 3 movies that cost about $80, and an individual movie that cost about $25.

It's like saying "Oh my gosh, Cars are outselling houses 3-to-1". Yes....yes, that is essentially what you are doing.
No, it's more like sixpacks (or threepacks) versus individual beer bottles.

47 people buy one beer each (or 23.5 buy two beers each, doesn't matter).
14 people buy one threepack each.

OK, this is my first post so bear with me. This must have been brought up somewhere before, but google "seating chart hdtv" and you will see the reason why I think that HD movies will never take off.


I just recently purchased a 40" 1080P LCD and these charts caused me to toss out my coffee table to be able to move the couch close enough to get the optimal viewing distance. When I brought the chart in to work people thought it was crazy, nobody sits that close to thier TV! Well thinking about most peoples setup I would imagine that maybe 20% sit within a distance where HD would make a large enough visual impact over upscaling (discounting color & contrast). Now I think my Sammy1200 is great and I found Pirates DMC AMAZING even my fiance admitted to it looking better, on the other hand I was showing off the TV to my father and he kept asking is this HD? :confused: I hope I am getting my point across. Thank you for listening.

Alex

OK, 10K Matrix and appox 25K PoTC. For 350K HD DVD Players and 1.5M BD Players. The point is that the sales suck either way.

A couple of thousand here and there was not the point. The very poor sales was my point. These were the most hyped titles that I can think of...

When BD supporters are trying to show how relatively more successful BD is by splitting a couple of thousand units, it probably says a lot about the format war! Yes. we were arguing over 3,500 units - I said appox 20K, and someone said it should be 23.5K. Amazing :)

And this was for a whole weeks worth of sales.!!!!!

OK, 10K Matrix and appox 25K PoTC. For 350K HD DVD Players and 1.5M BD Players. The point is that the sales suck either way.

A couple of thousand here and there was not the point. The very poor sales was my point. These were the most hyped titles that I can think of...

When BD supporters are trying to show how relatively more successful BD is by splitting a couple of thousand units, it probably says a lot about the format war! Yes. we were arguing over 3,500 units - I said appox 20K, and someone said it should be 23.5K. Amazing :)

And this was for a whole weeks worth of sales.!!!!!


Agree, sell a "whooping" 4-5k more units and percentage drastically changes. this Hd market is extremely small, but you (us residents) have a red carpet in front of you compared to us scandinavians. none the less, as a moviefreak you have to go with your gut feeling, Ignorance is bliss

The volumes themselves clearly indicate that the format wars are no where even close to being decided. Neither format it appears has established a viable market. Sales of top titles are just too weak.

I believe PoTC was originally supposed to be the victory stamp of a clear BD victory in this format war. The numbers indicate it was anything but....HD DVD also has a long way to go, but they are essentially on the same boat as BD. The sales difference in $ value is insignificant. The market sizes are about the same.

If anything, the volumes show that two formats are one too many, and that the sooner one format gives up - specifically the one trailing in sales even at a much lower entry price - the sooner the other format can get its feet set in the market.

I bet they're sleeping in Hollywood. I bet they're sleeping all over America. ;)



Agreed.

There are other topics more directly related. Such as, if HD DVD player sales have really skyrocketed (a Toshiba spokesperson talked about a five to tenfold increase), why don't software sales follow suit?

Well, Hollywood better wake up 'cause this sure ain't working as planned for anybody.

It would seem very unlikely that Toshiba didn't sell at least 5.000 players this week. It would also seem very unlikely that each buyer wouldn't get at least 2 movies immediatly, if not more. So it's hard not to see 10.000 copies or more sold to new owners. Maybe more people than we think are only planning on renting? Maybe the studios for some reason knows that Nielsen is a smaller part of the total than we have started believing but for some unknown reason have a gentlemans agreement only to use those numbers? I know unlikely but something doesn't add up.

When exactly did the 299 price take effect? Maybe we will see more results from that starting next week.

At the same time Blu rays numbers have been on a downward slope for many weeks now, with a small bump every no and then. The market sure doesn't seem to be as ready as I thought it would be by now.

If anything, the volumes show that two formats are one too many, and that the sooner one format gives up - specifically the one trailing in sales even at a much lower entry price - the sooner the other format can get its feet set in the market.

Amen.

Amen.

Same here.

If anything, the volumes show that two formats are one too many, and that the sooner one format gives up - specifically the one trailing in sales even at a much lower entry price - the sooner the other format can get its feet set in the market.I think you BD supporters should do the right thing and throw in the towel. With $250 HD DVD players you won't even feel the pinch. Then once the public sees that the water is fine, they will also rush to those affordable players, and it's on to HD DVD VS SD DVD.

After all, your first generation BD players may not be fully compliant by the end of the year anyway, and your PS3 is still good for games and to play what your obsolete BD software. For the good of Hi-def, make this small sacrifice.

see how realistic that sounds???

When exactly did the 299 price take effect?

May 20. And we are looking at May 21-27 sales.

Additionally there were player/Matrix offers at amazon, Best Buy and Circuit City. If you bought a Toshiba A2 + any of the Matrix packs on amazon you could get two free movies (on top of the five more offered by Toshiba).

Well, Hollywood better wake up 'cause this sure ain't working as planned for anybody.
Not sure I agree. I suspect they've done their research and have a pretty good idea how this will play out. I ignore PR-related press releases that may indicate otherwise and I assume the business plans are based on realistic projections.

Kagan Research did a report last year that indicated it was going to be a slow rollout. They say that even in 2009 HD packaged media (both formats combined) would only be 13.6% of sales with DVD still at 86.4%. They go on to say the format war should be decided by then (or dual-format will be present) and then things will really take off.

I doubt anyone in Hollywood is going to panic over the slow sales this early on.

But if you are talking about the compromised AACS, then I do agree. I am afraid that is causing concern with at least some studios in Hollywood. But this thread isn't about that.

Not sure I agree. I suspect they've done their research and have a pretty good idea how this will play out. I ignore PR-related press releases that may indicate otherwise and I assume the business plans are based on realistic projections.

Kagan Research did a report last year that indicated it was going to be a slow rollout. They say that even in 2009 HD packaged media (both formats combined) would only be 13.6% of sales with DVD still at 86.4%. They go on to say the format war should be decided by then (or dual-format will be present) and then things will really take off.


I agree, I've also heard the 25% HDTV penetration estimates are high. Where does that number come from?

OK, this is my first post so bear with me. This must have been brought up somewhere before, but google "seating chart hdtv" and you will see the reason why I think that HD movies will never take off.


I just recently purchased a 40" 1080P LCD and these charts caused me to toss out my coffee table to be able to move the couch close enough to get the optimal viewing distance. When I brought the chart in to work people thought it was crazy, nobody sits that close to thier TV! Well thinking about most peoples setup I would imagine that maybe 20% sit within a distance where HD would make a large enough visual impact over upscaling (discounting color & contrast). Now I think my Sammy1200 is great and I found Pirates DMC AMAZING even my fiance admitted to it looking better, on the other hand I was showing off the TV to my father and he kept asking is this HD? :confused: I hope I am getting my point across. Thank you for listening.

Alex

for a 40" set, you'd need to sit inside 6'. You'd be better off with a 50" set or bigger for a normal living room. 1080p is only useful if you're sitting very close or have a decent sized screen.

And you're right, people do tend to sit too far away for 1080p to matter. A lot aren't even in the optimal viewing for 720p given their tv set is in the 30" - 36" range.

May 20. And we are looking at May 21-27 sales.

Additionally there were player/Matrix offers at amazon, Best Buy and Circuit City. If you bought a Toshiba A2 + any of the Matrix packs on amazon you could get two free movies (on top of the five more offered by Toshiba).

... maybe you just answered your own question that you posed earlier about why there was not a huge jump in HD DVD software sales, if there truly had been a 5x to 10x increase in HD DVD hardware sales???

... maybe you just answered your own question that you posed earlier about why there was not a huge jump in HD DVD software sales, if there truly had been a 5x to 10x increase in HD DVD hardware sales???

But at the very least, each of the player sales which benefited from the offer came with a Matrix pack sale, which would definitely be counted as a sale. Which would make for a large Matrix sales number. Which we haven't seen.

What follows?

... maybe you just answered your own question that you posed earlier about why there was not a huge jump in HD DVD software sales, if there truly had been a 5x to 10x increase in HD DVD hardware sales???

I think we've established that the free Toshiba disks doesn't count anywhere. It could of course be a factor that people are buying less since the customer 'count' the free movies as much as any they pay for directly.

As for extra disks directly in the store they 'should' be counted, and we've pretty much assumed they were, but maybe something isn't working as we thought there?. Anyone have a scan of an actual reciet from a store doing these promotions? It would be interesting to confirm exactly how the movies are handled.

Pirates unit sales: 47000 copies combined.
Matrix unit sales: 13900 box sets combined (but at ~3X the price).

Pirates revenue, using Amazon's pricing: $1124650
Matrix revenue, using Amazon's pricing: $888905 - 1027905

Pirates revenue, using MSRP: $1644530
Matrix revenue, using MSRP: $1389861 - 1667861

So, I'd guess that POTC on Blu-ray generated about $1.2 million revenue, and that Matrix on HD DVD generated about $1 million revenue.

I think we've established that the free Toshiba disks doesn't count anywhere.

Not to mention that many people are still waiting for the earlier three free movies offered with the player they bought months ago.

AFAIK nobody has received the five movies yet.

Amir should change his sig to say, supplier of codecs for both BD and HD DVD, and then we can take his info about BD costs and use that as fact :)I assume by dodging the issue, you're admitting you were spreading misinformation about licensing. Glad to see it.

Pirates unit sales: 47000 copies combined.
Matrix unit sales: 13900 box sets combined (but at ~3X the price).

Pirates revenue, using Amazon's pricing: $1124650
Matrix revenue, using Amazon's pricing: $888905 - 1027905

Pirates revenue, using MSRP: $1644530
Matrix revenue, using MSRP: $1389861 - 1667861

So, I'd guess that POTC on Blu-ray generated about $1.2 million revenue, and that Matrix on HD DVD generated about $1 million revenue.
Almost forgot...

How many $19.99 Matrix sets did CC finally ship during that time period? 1000? That would drop the Matrix revenue above by ~$50000. Or was it much less? I recall a lot of people waiting and waiting and waiting for their CC orders to come through.

OK, this is my first post so bear with me. This must have been brought up somewhere before, but google "seating chart hdtv" and you will see the reason why I think that HD movies will never take off.


I just recently purchased a 40" 1080P LCD and these charts caused me to toss out my coffee table to be able to move the couch close enough to get the optimal viewing distance. When I brought the chart in to work people thought it was crazy, nobody sits that close to thier TV! Well thinking about most peoples setup I would imagine that maybe 20% sit within a distance where HD would make a large enough visual impact over upscaling (discounting color & contrast). Now I think my Sammy1200 is great and I found Pirates DMC AMAZING even my fiance admitted to it looking better, on the other hand I was showing off the TV to my father and he kept asking is this HD? :confused: I hope I am getting my point across. Thank you for listening.

Alex

First off you need a bigger TV. I have a 119" 1080p front projector. At that diagonal we have two rows of stadium seating, 1 at 15 feet and another at 19 feet. 1080p matters to me.

k

Yeah ...lets start counting TV season box sets as individual discs! Better yet, lets start counting each episodes! Instead of one unit for each Heroes Season 1 box set, we should count it as 22 units for each box set! Where does it stop? Studios make and market box set for a reason and they certainly don't market it as 3 individual titles.

In the bigger picture, unit sales are unit sales. True, except in this specific situation, everyone is trying to compare the apples and grapefruits (POTC and Matrix sets), so you have the opportunity to normalize everything. The most reasonable way to normalize it is to count each individual movie (as has been suggested several times), especially since the prices more or less reflect the fact that the Matrix units are 3-movie sets. If you have a better idea so that they can be compared, then suggest it. But to compare unit sales of the two without any consideration for the huge discrepancy in relative content and prices is flagrantly unscientific and unrealistic, to say the least.

The simple fact is that each PoTC title sold around 20K plus per disk and the Matrix sold 13.9K. IF the numbers being reported are correct.
....

No need to be so vague. The figures are:

Potc Movies = 47,000 units (7,000 more than your 'guess')
Matrix sets = 13,900 units (you got one right!)

That's a crushing 77:23 victory for Blu-ray on the big showdown of the week. When the other titles are included the ratio probably won't look quite so bad for HD DVD.

These numbers are sourced from Nielsen who do not report the whole market (no Wal*mart for example) so the whole market volumes may be 20 or 30% higher than those reported.

Remember that Casino Royale sold under 30,000 in week 1 (on Nielsen numbers) so expecting that to be topped by any of last weeks titles was somewhat hopeful.

I find it highly odd that we are comparing the sales of 2 titles to one. To say PoTC sold 47K while Matrix sold 14K seems biased. It would be fine if people said PoTC sold an avg. of 23.5K units per title with one version selling 28K v. Matrix collections sold a total of 14K. The BD sales advantage was 2:1, however, the revenue difference was 3:1 in favor of the Matrix trilogy...

So, either do a one title to one title comparison, or do a combo to combo. But the reorting seems to be BDA fed propaganda with some adjustments to show some balance. But you get my point...

To say PoTC did 47 K to Matrix 14K is just not right. We are comparing 2 titles to 1. If you do that, at least put the revenue in there. IF the Ultimate edition sold more, the HD DVD revenue was clearly more. Do studios care more about revenue or units sold? I'd say bills are paid by revenue, not units :)

No need to be so vague. The figures are:

Potc Movies = 47,000 units (7,000 more than your 'guess')
Matrix sets = 13,900 units (you got one right!)

That's a crushing 77:23 victory for Blu-ray on the big showdown of the week.
I totally understand that the Matrix units should not be multiplied by 3.
But to get at least somewhat of a reasonable comparison you have to chop the Potc units in half because the 47,000 number is for two movies combined.

Nobody is going to combine e.g. Bourne Identity sales and Bourne Supremacy sales into one either.

fozz, do you see why your ratio is off? You are combining sales of 2 titles to 1! This is totlally false reporting.

You either multiple 13.9 X 3 and then compare to 47K, or you take one of the two POTC and compare to Matrix.

This is crazy. Are people really that gullible and naive?

What about the revenue ratio?

Plazman is right on the money. The movie content of both Matrix SKUs is the same, such that no one would consider buying both. The content of the two POTC SKUs is different, and they will have a very high sales correlation. You can either compare 42k movies to 47k movies, or compare 14k titles to 23.5k titles. Obviously one side would prefer one metric while the other side would prefer the other. But 14k vs. 47k is just asinine and disingenuous.

No need to be so vague. The figures are:

Potc Movies = 47,000 units (7,000 more than your 'guess').

We have to be a bit vague, because if you read that again... it's "nearly" 47000 units. As in "less than". We don't have the exact number via that article.

In addition, I hope you can see the error of your ratios. You're combining sales of 2 individual films and counting them as 1 and then taking a 3-film box set and doing the same. You've introduced about 3 different errors into your calculations.



Comparing these sales is silly. First, they are COMPLETELY different movies and neither one is available on the other format. That fact alone makes any comparison stupid. But when you also factor in the price/configuration differences (individual $25 titles vs. $75 box set) it gets even more silly.


Ultimately, sales are VERY small for both sides. And if you add up the $$$ made at the end of the day (which, ultimately, is all Disney or Warner cares about)... it's a tie. Both sides made a little over a million bucks this week. But feel free to spin this so either one side or the other received a crushing blow.

Meanwhile, the rest of us with be (a) enjoying our movies and (b) lamenting the fact that neither format is selling as well as we hoped.

You're now equating two movies with three other movies.

I prefer to look at it this way:

- Pirates I: 23,500
- Pirates II: 23,500
- Matrix I: 13,900
- Matrix II: 13,900
- Matrix III: 13,900

(Of course if the Matrix titles had been actually released separately, we might be looking at a 20K/10K/5K spread ;) ).

Not sure I agree. I suspect they've done their research and have a pretty good idea how this will play out. I ignore PR-related press releases that may indicate otherwise and I assume the business plans are based on realistic projections.

Kagan Research did a report last year that indicated it was going to be a slow rollout. They say that even in 2009 HD packaged media (both formats combined) would only be 13.6% of sales with DVD still at 86.4%. They go on to say the format war should be decided by then (or dual-format will be present) and then things will really take off.

I doubt anyone in Hollywood is going to panic over the slow sales this early on.



No matter how you look at it I'm pretty sure the industry can't be pleased, or have expected, sales this spring to be close to the same as almost a year ago.

I predicted before anything was released that it would take 5-7 years before it would be about equal in volume to SD. So I'm not suprised it takes time, but no growt at all is alarming. At this rate it's gonna take alot longer than most hoped for.

No matter how you look at it I'm pretty sure the industry can't be pleased, or have expected, sales this spring to be close to the same as almost a year ago.

I predicted before anything was released that it would take 5-7 years before it would be about equal in volume to SD. So I'm not suprised it takes time, but no growt at all is alarming. At this rate it's gonna take alot longer than most hoped for.
Or, it may not happen at all. :(
J

No matter how you look at it I'm pretty sure the industry can't be pleased, or have expected, sales this spring to be close to the same as almost a year ago.

I predicted before anything was released that it would take 5-7 years before it would be about equal in volume to SD. So I'm not suprised it takes time, but no growt at all is alarming. At this rate it's gonna take alot longer than most hoped for.

I don't think it's time to panic now. User adaption curves are HIGHLY non-linear. I think people here get a little more excited about releases than the studios do and I'm not surprised the sales numbers were this low. My wife doesn't mind if I buy discs, but she does start to mind if I start buying my DVDs over again. I'd love to have both pirates, but a rule is a rule. I did get the matrix, but I had to use the technicality that I didn't have the second 2. :)

I think this fall when we see more new releases - 300, pirates, shrek (maybe?), SP3, etc, we'll get a better idea. I also think the BDA better be careful. I don't know if PS3 sales have started to recover from April, but if Toshiba keeps cutting prices, then at some point soon, HD-DVD hardware may be actually outselling BR hardware, even with all ps3's counted.

Chris

I don't know if PS3 sales have started to recover from April, but if Toshiba keeps cutting prices, then at some point soon, HD-DVD hardware may be actually outselling BR hardware, even with all ps3's counted.

Chris

The PS3 hasn't recovered yet, but with the latest firmware, I've noticed a lot of gamers are picking it up on the message boards. You wouldn't believe how important DVD upscaling was for them. One machine that does it all seems to be the motto. However, there's a strong possibility of a $100-$150 price drop for the PS3 in months. That alone will sell millions right off the bat.

Here's what Kagan predicted in their report based on revenue (not units). Sorry I only have a hard copy and no link:

2009
HD packaged media: 13.6%
Standard DVD packaged media: 88.4%

2012
HD: 53.7%
DVD: 46.3%

2015
HD: 68.7%
DVD 31.3%

I was guessing there would be about 20000 units of Matrix box sets sold combined, in the first week. I guess I was way off. Only 2/3rds of that were sold.

We'll see how much staying power these sets have though.

P.S. I'm still surprised that people actually thought they'd sell 50000 units or something.

The PS3 hasn't recovered yet, but with the latest firmware, I've noticed a lot of gamers are picking it up on the message boards. You wouldn't believe how important DVD upscaling was for them. One machine that does it all seems to be the motto. However, there's a strong possibility of a $100-$150 price drop for the PS3 in months. That alone will sell millions right off the bat.


Agreed, Sony did the PS3 a HUGE favor with the release of 1.8.

New numbers: (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom060307/index.php)

Week ending May 27, 2007

Week: Blu-ray 69 HD DVD 31
YTD: Blu-ray 67 HD DVD 33
SI: Blu-ray 58 HD DVD 42

YTD stayed the same, SI rose a point in Blu-ray's favor.

2015
HD: 68.7%
DVD 31.3%

By 2015, we'll have holographic media, flying cars, and clothes that dry themselves. Steven Spielberg told me so.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean DMC BD 100.00
2. Pirates of the Caribbean CBP BD 89.35
3. Apocalypto BD 73.73
4. Ultimate Matrix Collection BD 33.28
5. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 25.88
7. Letters from Iwo Jima 22.06
8. Planet Earth HD 17.55
9. Casino Royale BD 13.64
10. Flags of Our Fathers BD 11.86

http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/8951/picture1zh7.jpg

Already given the other numbers, I think that is what is about expected.

I was only 2% off.

New format for Top 10:

Week ending May 27, 2007

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86
xx Planet Earth BD 11.57 [ed. note: Using the figures below]
yy Flags of our Fathers HD 8.54 [ed. note: Using the figures below]

Top 10 high-def sellers (Aggregate by title)*
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Letters from Iwo Jima BD&HD 48.74
5 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
6 Planet Earth BD&HD 29.12
7 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
8 Flags of our Fathers BD&HD 20.40
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 The Fountain BD&HD 13.40

*Combined sales of dual-format releases

Grubert: Someone mixed up the Complete and Ultimate on one of the charts, can you ask HMM for clarification?
Note: If the Top HD DVD sellers is right, Ultimate Matrix should be higher. Corrected unless Grubert hears otherwise.

Top 5 Blu-ray
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl 89.35
3 Apocalypto 73.73
4 Letters from Iwo Jima 26.68
5 Casino Royale 13.64

Top 5 HD DVD
1 Ultimate Matrix Coll 100.00
2 Complete Matrix Coll 77.99
3 Letters from Iwo Jima 66.30
4 Planet Earth 52.73
5 The 40-Year Old Virgin 26.96

fozz, do you see why your ratio is off? You are combining sales of 2 titles to 1! This is totlally false reporting.

You either multiple 13.9 X 3 and then compare to 47K, or you take one of the two POTC and compare to Matrix.

This is crazy. Are people really that gullible and naive?

What about the revenue ratio?

I'm comparing 2 Blu-ray SKU's Vs. 2 HD DVD SKU's.

Spin away! :D

Not bad on the week. I guessed 70:30 (but not on this thread). Nice to see Apocalypto doing well.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean DMC BD 100.00
2. Pirates of the Caribbean CBP BD 89.35
3. Apocalypto BD 73.73
4. Ultimate Matrix Collection BD 33.28
5. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 25.88
7. Letters from Iwo Jima 22.06
8. Planet Earth HD 17.55
9. Casino Royale BD 13.64
10. Flags of Our Fathers BD 11.86

I called the Top 3. I'm surprised that the Letters and especially Flags are so low and also would have expected Complete Matrix to outsell Ultimate Matrix. Did none of the Ultimate Matrix shoppers already have the ultimate Matrix DVD set? I expected at least Flags HDDVD to beat Planet Earth this week, but I guess not.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean DMC BD 100.00
2. Pirates of the Caribbean CBP BD 89.35
4. Ultimate Matrix Collection BD 33.28
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 25.88


Those numbers would seem to corroborate the 47/13.9 report - or at least they keep the same ratio as the report... Must say, I wouldn't have expected to see Apocalypto beat out eith Matrix Collection...

cool :) I think I was right on mark with my prediction :)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10664352&&#post10664352

1. POTC2
2. POTC1
3. Apocalypto

BD 69/HD 31


Marek

Grubert: Someone mixed up the Complete and Ultimate on one of the charts, can you ask HMM for clarification?

I will... once the magazine gets officially released ;) (Monday).


Note: If the Top HD DVD sellers is right, Ultimate Matrix should be higher. Corrected unless Grubert hears otherwise.

We have three relevant charts. The Ultimate is on top on two of them. Editorially and statistically I'd say the aggregate chart has the matrices mixed up, and that Ultimate outsold Complete (remember that was the order on Rentrak as well).

Going from the 13,900 Matrix sold and Complete Matrix sales being 77.79% of Ultimate Matrix Sales it follows that there were 7818 Ultimate packs and 6,082 Complete packs solds.

Using that as a reference we get the following overall sales.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean DMC BD 23,492
2. Pirates of the Caribbean CBP BD 20,990
3. Apocalypto BD 17,320
4. Ultimate Matrix Collection HD 7,818
5. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 6,268
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 6,082
7. Letters from Iwo Jima HD 5,182
8. Planet Earth HD 4,123
9. Casino Royale BD 3,204
10. Flags of Our Fathers BD 2,786

Note: I'm fully aware that the Pirates sales aren't nearly 47,000. We could use the same method to determine Pirates sales (24,822 and 22,178, respectively), but then Matrix total sales would add up to nearly 15K.

New format for Top 10:

Week ending May 27, 2007

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Black Pearl BD 100.00
2 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 89.35

Top 10 high-def sellers (Aggregate by title)*
1 POTC: Black Pearl BD 100.00
2 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 89.35


JBlacklow, you have the POTC's reversed. DMC should be on top on both charts.

It also appears to me that the Pirates movies are having a better staying power as they are both, and Apocalytpo, still ranked much higher on Amazon then the matrix set which is down to number 70 already.

Well, the HMM numbers were an estimation, and Nielsen's not counting everybody. Between those two factors, we're bound to get some mismatch.

JBlacklow, you have the POTC's reversed. DMC should be on top on both charts.So I did. Corrected.

New format for Top 10:

Week ending May 27, 2007

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Black Pearl BD 100.00
2 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86
xx Planet Earth BD 11.57 [ed. note: Using the figures below]
yy Flags of our Fathers HD 8.54 [ed. note: Using the figures below]


Based on JBlacklow's numbers above, I calculated an estimated $$ comparison for the Top 12. Results:

MSRP Pricing: 57/43 BD/HD
Amazon Pricing: 65/35 BD/HD

Methodology: Each single unit went in as 1 unit, and the Matrix/PE sets went in as weighted x3 for MSRP pricing, x2 for Amazon pricing. It's obviously a rough estimate (based on this methodology, all single units are assumed to have the same price, which isn't of course true), but it gives us some idea.

I'm comparing 2 Blu-ray SKU's Vs. 2 HD DVD SKU's.

Spin away! :D



Fozziwig, do you see the flaw in your logic? Do you think people are going to be buying both the ultimate matrix and the complete matrix?

New format for Top 10:

Week ending May 27, 2007

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86
xx Planet Earth BD 11.57 [ed. note: Using the figures below]
yy Flags of our Fathers HD 8.54 [ed. note: Using the figures below]

Top 10 high-def sellers (Aggregate by title)*
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Letters from Iwo Jima BD&HD 48.74
5 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
6 Planet Earth BD&HD 29.12
7 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
8 Flags of our Fathers BD&HD 20.40
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 The Fountain BD&HD 13.40

*Combined sales of dual-format releases

Grubert: Someone mixed up the Complete and Ultimate on one of the charts, can you ask HMM for clarification?
Note: If the Top HD DVD sellers is right, Ultimate Matrix should be higher. Corrected unless Grubert hears otherwise.

So Ultimate outsold the complete Trilogy? Doesn't that mean that Matrix probably earned more revenue than the two Pirates then?

So Ultimate outsold the complete Trilogy? Doesn't that mean that Matrix probably earned more revenue than the two Pirates then?

Well I know my matrix trilogy along with several hundred or maybe a thousand others only cost 19.99. So that should affect the numbers a little right?

I think that's Circuit City's loss not Warner's.

Almost forgot...

How many $19.99 Matrix sets did CC finally ship during that time period? 1000? That would drop the Matrix revenue above by ~$50000. Or was it much less? I recall a lot of people waiting and waiting and waiting for their CC orders to come through.

Why would that drop the revenue. The studios still get paid their normal amount. CC is the one who eats the loss. Studio revenue was not effected by CC's slip up.

Going from the 13,900 Matrix sold and Complete Matrix sales being 77.79% of Ultimate Matrix Sales it follows that there were 7818 Ultimate packs and 6,082 Complete packs solds.

Using that as a reference we get the following overall sales.

1. Pirates of the Caribbean DMC BD 23,492
2. Pirates of the Caribbean CBP BD 20,990
3. Apocalypto BD 17,320
4. Ultimate Matrix Collection BD 7,818
5. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 6,268
6. Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 6,082
7. Letters from Iwo Jima HD 5,182
8. Planet Earth HD 4,123
9. Casino Royale BD 3,204
10. Flags of Our Fathers BD 2,786

Note: I'm fully aware that the Pirates sales aren't nearly 47,000. We could use the same method to determine Pirates sales (24,822 and 22,178, respectively), but then Matrix total sales would add up to nearly 15K.

I think that's pretty close. It also gives a likely number for PE. The Casino numbers seems a little higher than what it could have been the last couple of weeks but since it's targeting the same audience as Pirates there might have been some customers picking that one up as well. Going with Pirates at 47 would give both PE and Casino sales that seem high.

So Ultimate outsold the complete Trilogy? Doesn't that mean that Matrix probably earned more revenue than the two Pirates then?Maybe if almost every copy was Ultimate. Since it was actually around 55:45 Ultimate, the answer is no. I'll let someone else generate the formula to give us an actual number.

Whre are the HD DVD Sales for 5-fold Hardware?
Someone check my math...but:

If there was a significant boost to hardware sales for HD DVD, one might assume that there would be a market share move somewhere in the numbers. If we grant that BD had a significant advantage due to POTC that masked the weekly ratio, one could calculate the sales ratio for all titles NOT in the top 10. The assumption here being that new hardware owners might be purchasing previous release titles rather than the current releases.

So...if the top 10 share is 84:16 BD/HD and the weekly share is 69:31 BD/HD, that means that the share of sales for all titles NOT in the top 10 must have been 54:46 BD:HD.

Might be worthwhile to track market share of top 10 vs. Not-top 10 over time to see if the share of the bottom subset is changing or static.
That's actually a good point. I don't think we are seeing the whole picture by just focusing on the top 10. If you look at the top 100 from Amazon, you see the sales steadily increasing over the last 30 days. As Grubert likes to say, "you can see a trend". :) I'ld like to see some real numbers of total sales though-anybody have them?
J

Have we officially crossed the line when talking/debating/following the sales numbers of "Matrix" and "Pirates" movies is more fun than watching them in high-def media? Because this is definitely more fun than watching "The Matrix Revolutions" on HD-DVD, that's for sure! :p

The following weeks should be interesting to see how these products hold up over time. In my mind "Pirates" and "Matrix" are both evergreen franchises capable to continue selling for as long as there are new people buying into either format. "Batman Begins" didn't sell a ton of HD-DVD titles on its release date by the standards set by "Casino Royale" and "The Departed" but it has kept a steady presence in sales chart for close to a year now (and it wasn't a day-and-date release). Just because "Matrix" and "Pirates" didn't sell 100K out of the gate doesn't mean they won't get there eventually and keep on selling from there.

It also appears to me that the Pirates movies are having a better staying power as they are both, and Apocalytpo, still ranked much higher on Amazon then the matrix set which is down to number 70 already.

And amazingly Planet Earth is still going strong in the top 10 (HD DVD) and top 20 (Blu Ray) beating all of those with a huge margin already.

While Amazon sells something like 2.000 PE per week obviously others manage to sell another 5.000 or so. I don't think we've seen any other title do even close to 7.000 copies (combined) five weeks after release. Matrix certainly won't make it in it's second and I'm not sure Pirates will in it's third.

It's probably over 40.000 now. 23+17.

Btw both Eastwood movies sold better on BD. So much for the "HD-DVD supporters buy more quality movies" argument...

This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on Blu-ray. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.

Other sobering figures:

The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which was a box office smash hit two years ago (over $100 million for a comedy, #19 in top titles for 2005) only sold about 2,108 units.

The rest of catalog titles (MI I and II, The Skeleton Key, Smokey and the Bandit, Closer) don't make the charts. Nor does Freedom Writers.

This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on HD DVD. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.

I think there's one too many HD DVDs somewhere in that statement ...

Maybe the difference are all those SD customers stocking up on HD DVD for the future. The studios might be onto something with those combos. ;)

Maybe if almost every copy was Ultimate. Since it was actually around 55:45 Ultimate, the answer is no. I'll let someone else generate the formula to give us an actual number.

Look, no calculation will be exact, because we don't have exact numbers to work with. But if we assume that the 47000 and 13900 figures are correct. And we assume that 55% of the Matrix sales were Ultimate. And we use retail price (to eliminate the variable introduced by "assuming" what people paid)...

You get:

Pirates: $1,407,650
(47000 x $29.95)
Matrix: $1,542,205
(7645 x $119.95 + 6255 x $99.95)

These numbers are so close it isn't even funny. You make one set of (valid) assumptions and BD is a little ahead. You make a different set of (also valid) assumptions and HD DVD is a little ahead. Both releases made about a million bucks and change. And neither one did particularly well, or did particularly better than the other.

This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on HD DVD. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.
War movies being prefered by PS3/BD fans? Who'ld a thunk it? :eek:
J

Look, no calculation will be exact, because we don't have exact numbers to work with. But if we assume that the 47000 and 13900 figures are correct. And we assume that 55% of the Matrix sales were Ultimate. And we use retail price (to eliminate the variable introduced by "assuming" what people paid)...

You get:

Pirates: $1,407,650
(47000 x $29.95)
Matrix: $1,542,205
(7645 x $119.95 + 6255 x $99.95)

These numbers are so close it isn't even funny. You make one set of (valid) assumptions and BD is a little ahead. You make a different set of (also valid) assumptions and HD DVD is a little ahead. Both releases made about a million bucks and change. And neither one did particularly well, or did particularly better than the other.
Yea, that sure is a beating BD gave HD. :rolleyes:
J

From the figures given, 56.25% of the Matrix packs sold were Ultimate.

That's actually a good point. I don't think we are seeing the whole picture by just focusing on the top 10. If you look at the top 100 from Amazon, you see the sales steadily increasing over the last 30 days. As Grubert likes to say, "you can see a trend". :) I'ld like to see some real numbers of total sales though-anybody have them?
J
Sorry I deleted my orignial because I forgot about the volume contribution from the NOT top-10.

This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on Blu-ray. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.

Wasn't the ratio worse than that in previous combo/non-combo comparison?

Look, no calculation will be exact, because we don't have exact numbers to work with. But if we assume that the 47000 and 13900 figures are correct. And we assume that 55% of the Matrix sales were Ultimate. And we use retail price (to eliminate the variable introduced by "assuming" what people paid)...

You get:

Pirates: $1,407,650
(47000 x $29.95)
Matrix: $1,542,205
(7645 x $119.95 + 6255 x $99.95)
You used the wrong MSRP for Pirates, which came in at $34.99. Recalculating the "Pirates" figure we come up with

Pirates: $1,644,530
(47000 x $34.99)
Matrix: $1,542,205
(7645 x $119.95 + 6255 x $99.95)
You make one set of (valid) assumptions and BD is a little ahead. You make a different set of (also valid) assumptions and HD DVD is a little ahead.Not if we use the correct prices (see above).
Both releases made about a million bucks and change. And neither one did particularly well, or did particularly better than the other.No argument there.

War movies being prefered by PS3/BD fans? Who'ld a thunk it? :eek:
J

Ah, so "quality movies" still sell better on HD-DVD, just not "quality war movies", I see... :rolleyes:

Ah, so "quality movies" still sell better on HD-DVD, just not "quality war movies", I see... :rolleyes:

HD DVD owners are much more likely to buy quality movies. For the two movies under consideration the sales difference was very small. Considering that there are over a Million more BD players than HD DVD players, I'd say the argument holds....

HD DVD owners are much more likely to buy quality movies. For the two movies under consideration the sales difference was very small. Considering that there are over a Million more BD players than HD DVD players, I'd say the argument holds....

But PS3 'dudes' don't buy Blu-rays.

Other sobering figures:

The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which was a box office smash hit two years ago (over $100 million for a comedy, #19 in top titles for 2005) only sold about 2,108 units.

I love that movie, and probably have watched it 10 times on HBO HD. No doubt, if it was on Blu-ray I would have purchased a copy. If anything, I think the success of Planet Earth has showed us that video quality might be more important than we thought (though still less important than content). If you love a movie, you're going to buy it. But if a movie is just ok, but looks spectacular, early adopters are going to buy that as well.

You used the wrong MSRP for Pirates, which came in at $34.99. Recalculating the "Pirates" figure we come up with

Pirates: $1,644,530
(47000 x $34.99)
Matrix: $1,542,205
(7645 x $119.95 + 6255 x $99.95)

Ah, my bad. I thought Pirates were $30.

Still, my point stands. Using these numbers (which are about as perfect as we have available to us, in my opinion), it looks like Pirates sold all of $100k more than The Matrix. If that's worth celebrating, this whole "format war" is in a pretty sorry state.

HD DVD owners are much more likely to buy quality movies.Way to make a subjective consideration into fact. Even if you were to somehow do the impossible and make an qualitative argument into a quantitative one, you have nothing to back this up. You're 0 for 3 this week.

bboisvert.

your argument is invalid. you use pirates which are 2 movies against 3 movies ( matrix ) or even 4 if you include the animatrix.

that is why you cant use the total ammount of the vs argument. units sales are the only ones that can be compared. and pirates beat those. if you want to use the $$$ vs sales. do it this december when pirates 3 comes out on bluray. then the vs $$$ sale is valid.

I called the Top 3. I'm surprised that the Letters and especially Flags are so low ... I expected at least Flags HDDVD to beat Planet Earth this week, but I guess not.Flags did not seem to be advertised by the big box retailers. They all seemed to have Letters in their weekly ad, but surprisingly not Flags. When I went to BB to get Letters I looked around and didn't even see any copies of Flags (I'd purchased it at CC). I can only assume they didn't advertise Flags because it had already been released on DVD and was not a big box office hit.

Flags did not seem to be advertised by the big box retailers. They all seemed to have Letters in their weekly ad, but surprisingly not Flags. When I went to BB to get Letters I looked around and didn't even see any copies of Flags (I'd purchased it at CC). I can only assume they didn't advertise Flags because it had already been released on DVD and was not a big box office hit.

The Flags of our Fathers cover was displayed on every TV in the Best Buy ad for memorial day weekend

The Flags of our Fathers cover was displayed on every TV in the Best Buy ad for memorial day weekendThat was for the 2-disc DVD. They didn't have Flags in either HD format in their ad.

bboisvert.

your argument is invalid. you use pirates which are 2 movies against 3 movies ( matrix ) or even 4 if you include the animatrix.

If you're saying that comparing these releases is stupid, I agree wholeheartedly. I've pointed that out in about a half dozen different posts since this story broke yesterday.

But if people are determined to compare these (as the multiple threads and internet stories seem to indicate), let's be fair about it. Neither side "won" -- it's a frigging tie. They made the same amount of money.


But I agree that comparing two completely different film series on two completely different formats with two completely different configurations/price points is absurd.

I think both sides have that mentality now, and it is what will lead to both failing.

On Topic:

65:35 Blu-ray: HD DVD.

1) POTC: Dead Mans Chest
2) POTC: Curse of the Black something or another
3) Apocalypto
4) Complete Matrix Trilogy
5) Letters from Iwo Jima. BD

I was wrong about the ratio; I didn't expect Blu-ray to do so well. I think my top 5 were pretty close, except it was the Ultimate Matrix.

The PS3 hasn't recovered yet, but with the latest firmware, I've noticed a lot of gamers are picking it up on the message boards. You wouldn't believe how important DVD upscaling was for them. One machine that does it all seems to be the motto. However, there's a strong possibility of a $100-$150 price drop for the PS3 in months. That alone will sell millions right off the bat.

I've noticed a similar happening. Its anecdotal evidence, to be sure, but the new firmware has certainly made for new faces in the various PS3 threads I visit around the internet.

I think it is time to rewind a few dozen pages:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10317339&&#post10317339




Because, quite simply, it HAS caught up.

This is not all about the 1-day "buy" look at the last three weeks - which is what I have been drawing attention to in virtually every post.

You are consistently calling folks "deceivers", when all one has to do is use ones eyes.

The Videoscan numbers have shown this trend very clearly, also, just in case anyone has been watching. BD went from a peak, to 1.5 to 1 in the numbers last Wednesday, which was for the period of about the 1st to the 7th of April.

We are now in a period 2 weeks after that 1.5 measurement. Last week's Videoscan numbers will be out in two days. And this weeks numbers will be out in 9 days.

The trend is the story, here. After all the emotion is said and done (and there *is* too much of it) this Wednesday's numbers from Videoscan will not reflect the buy, but it will *not* be a 2 to 1 ratio for BD.

However, the numbers for *this* week, which will be released on the 25th of April, will show both formats virtually equal (if not HD ahead).

But every week more that passes, HD DVD is pulling closer alongside BD - and I predict quite comfortably that by the end of May, there will be no looking back. HD DVD is pulling ahead again.

I hope that my position is very clear here - just so there are no irrational retorts.

I've made my case, stated my position, and I'm confident that I will be shown to be correct.

If I'm wrong, so be it, but I'm certain that it'll only only be "wrong" in the context of how long it takes for HD DVD to leave BD sales behind. Heck - it could even happen sooner, for all I know.

But trends, and the fundamentals that make them, something I've become quite good at in my time :)

I don't ask anyone to agree - just bookmark this post and let's chat in 5 or 6 weeks.

(boldface added)

Okay, it's six weeks later.

Since that post went up, HD DVD has never sold more than BD (though week of April 22 was close). HD DVD has in no way, shape or form caught up, let alone pulled ahead. During the last 5 weeks BD has had between 58% and 71% market share. YTD continues to be 2:1 or more, and since-inception share is at an all-time-high 58%.

So the above prediction has not come true. At all.


But trends, and the fundamentals that make them, something I've become quite good at in my time :)


Well, what can I say? A man's gotta know his limitations (thanks, Harry).

Why would that drop the revenue. The studios still get paid their normal amount. CC is the one who eats the loss. Studio revenue was not effected by CC's slip up.
The numbers quoted for the $2+ million in sales between POTC and Matrix was retail revenue, not studio revenue.


New format for Top 10:

Week ending May 27, 2007

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86[/i]
As others have said, probably the most interesting part of all of this was in fact Letters from Iwo Jima BD vs HD.

What's also interesting is that the unit sales of Letters BD vs. HD mirrors the revenue generated by POTC vs Matrix. ie. about 55:45.

I'm still surprised that Planet Earth HD has such staying power too.

I think you BD supporters should do the right thing and throw in the towel. With $250 HD DVD players you won't even feel the pinch. Then once the public sees that the water is fine, they will also rush to those affordable players, and it's on to HD DVD VS SD DVD.

After all, your first generation BD players may not be fully compliant by the end of the year anyway, and your PS3 is still good for games and to play what your obsolete BD software. For the good of Hi-def, make this small sacrifice.

see how realistic that sounds???

Its actually extremely unrealistic, and we've talked about the reasons why many times. Enumerating them again would be off topic.

War movies being prefered by PS3/BD fans? Who'ld a thunk it? :eek:
J

Dreamgirls and Happy Feet are war movies?

The Queen is a war movie?

I think it is time to rewind a few dozen pages:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10317339&&#post10317339




(boldface added)

Okay, it's six weeks later.

Since that post went up, HD DVD has never sold more than BD (though week of April 22 was close). HD DVD has in no way, shape or form caught up, let alone pulled ahead. During the last 5 weeks BD has had between 58% and 71% market share. YTD continues to be 2:1 or more, and since-inception share is at an all-time-high 58%.

So the above prediction has not come true. At all.




Well, what can I say? A man's gotta know his limitations (thanks, Harry).

Oh, Internet. You never forget ;)

More figures:

The 6 BD titles we have figures for have sold just over 74K units.
The 5 HD DVD titles we have figures fore have sold a little over 25K units.

So actual sales could be 80K/36K, 85K/38K or even 90K/40K. The best week for both formats in all year:

http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/623/vsof8.png

Dollar value of top 5 BD titles (on the basis of MSRP) was $2.5 million. Dollar value of top HD titles was $2.2 million.

HD DVD owners are much more likely to buy quality movies...

As you - and others - keep repeating this strange opinion, I would like to know why this should be the case? What is the fundamental reason that would make someone with better taste in movies (as subjective as that is anyways) choose HD-DVD over Blu-ray?

Ok, to get you started, I'll give you one reason that just occured to myself. More intellectual types are often a little technophobic and may thus prefer the lower-tech option HD-DVD presents, inferior specs and all... :D

As you - and others - keep repeating this strange opinion, I would like to know why this should be the case? What is the fundamental reason that would make someone with better taste in movies (as subjective as that is anyways) choose HD-DVD over Blu-ray?

Ok, to get you started, I'll give you one reason that just occured to myself. More intellectual types are often a little technophobic and may thus prefer the lower-tech option HD-DVD presents, inferior specs and all... :D HD DVD has been marketed more as a movie player, including the recent ad campaign and Universal with its strong catalog titles is more likely to release a deeper more enthisast catalog than the Blu-ray studios catering to a day and date release crowd and chasing the PS3 demographics as the dominant Blu-ray player.

If you take off your sarcasm bennie hat, you can see that there are some reasons to factor in that at least early HD DVD buyers may be more movie buffs (buying the more expensive standalones) rather than PS3 buyers. As more and more standalond Blu-ray players are sold, that will shift. But most BD devices (ie the PS3) have not been bought and dedicated movie players, and the Blu-ray studios have been releasing more recent releases than HD DVD has as an acknowledgment of that fact.

As you - and others - keep repeating this strange opinion, I would like to know why this should be the case? What is the fundamental reason that would make someone with better taste in movies (as subjective as that is anyways) choose HD-DVD over Blu-ray?

Ok, to get you started, I'll give you one reason that just occured to myself. More intellectual types are often a little technophobic and may thus prefer the lower-tech option HD-DVD presents, inferior specs and all... :D

Its just his opinion

Two of my opinions
Apollo 13 > Flyboys
Cinderella Man > Little Man

And you forgot that HD DVD has mandatory specs :cool:

I think it is time to rewind a few dozen pages:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10317339&&#post10317339

(boldface added)

Okay, it's six weeks later.

Since that post went up, HD DVD has never sold more than BD (though week of April 22 was close). HD DVD has in no way, shape or form caught up, let alone pulled ahead. During the last 5 weeks BD has had between 58% and 71% market share. YTD continues to be 2:1 or more, and since-inception share is at an all-time-high 58%.

So the above prediction has not come true. At all.

Well, what can I say? A man's gotta know his limitations (thanks, Harry).
Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.

You may have to give him a couple weeks until the HD DVD player sales kick HD DVD movies up a few notches.

The Nielson/Videoscan sales numbers (first alert at that) may be lagging HD DVD player sales by a few weeks.

This weeks numbers are about the same as last weeks around a 60/40 split, which is still better than the average in the 1st quarter.


It will be more telling about 3-4 weeks from now to see if HD DVD player sales are driving HD DVD movie sales.

Other sobering figures:

The 40-Year-Old Virgin, which was a box office smash hit two years ago (over $100 million for a comedy, #19 in top titles for 2005) only sold about 2,108 units.

The rest of catalog titles (MI I and II, The Skeleton Key, Smokey and the Bandit, Closer) don't make the charts. Nor does Freedom Writers. The only way for catalog releases to sell in volume is to have millions of HD players in the wild.

The only way to get that is to get to over 100,000 units in sales for dedicated standalone players.

The only way to get that is to drop prices below $299 or better yet $199.

Guess what format is heading in that direction by the end of the year.

Catalog sales will pick up as HD prices drop and more standalone players are sold.

Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.

He was specific about the end of May.

And... here we are.


It will be more telling about 3-4 weeks from now to see if HD DVD player sales are driving HD DVD movie sales.

So... the end of June then?

To be honest I do expect the 'fire sale' player pricing to have some impact. Probably some more sales for Batman Begins..!

It will be interesting to see the overall impact none the less.

Universal stated that the smack down would be Q4. With the recent 'delaying' of BD titles (whether it be for BD+ or for Profile 1.1 or for some other reason), I can't help but think that the BDA studios are also drawing the battle lines for Q4.

Once again, the holiday season would seem to be where the next major shift might occur...

But at the very least, each of the player sales which benefited from the offer came with a Matrix pack sale, which would definitely be counted as a sale. Which would make for a large Matrix sales number. Which we haven't seen.

What follows? The Nielson rule of thumb is that if a consumer has a choice with the purchase the movie title is counted as a sale. If the conusmer has no choice (King Kong Talledagea Knights Casino Royale in PAL land etc) the movie title is not counted asa a sale.

Its possible that Nielson in its counting could subtract out the Matrix SKU numbers if they were considered bound and intergral in the sale at that retailer?.

Not saying this happened , but maybe?

The Nielson rule of thumb is that if a consumer has a choice with the purchase the movie title is counted as a sale. If the conusmer has no choice (King Kong Talledagea Knights Casino Royale in PAL land etc) the movie title is not counted asa a sale.

Its possible that Nielson in its counting could subtract out the Matrix SKU numbers if they were considered bound and intergral in the sale at that retailer?.

Not saying this happened , but maybe?

Well, even in PAL land, Casino Royal sold over 10.000 units first week in UK ! And consumer had choice, to wait for CR in mailbox.

Marek.

HD DVD has been marketed more as a movie player, including the recent ad campaign and Universal with its strong catalog titles is more likely to release a deeper more enthisast catalog than the Blu-ray studios catering to a day and date release crowd and chasing the PS3 demographics as the dominant Blu-ray player.

If you take off your sarcasm bennie hat, you can see that there are some reasons to factor in that at least early HD DVD buyers may be more movie buffs (buying the more expensive standalones) rather than PS3 buyers. As more and more standalond Blu-ray players are sold, that will shift. But most BD devices (ie the PS3) have not been bought and dedicated movie players, and the Blu-ray studios have been releasing more recent releases than HD DVD has as an acknowledgment of that fact.

Your assumption that movie buffs have better taste in movies is dubious. Just look at Ain't It Cool News if you have any further questions.

Me, I'd take The Fountain or Apocalypto over any of the Pirates or Matrix movies. Oh, and I own a PS3...with games.

This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on Blu-ray. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.

The difference is dual format owners wanting to save 5 bucks. When there are equally priced, identically full-featured titles, you can make a better comparison. Like with Planet Earth.

Best case scenario for HDDVD is to try to approach parity in the holidays instead of reversing the increasingly apparent domination of Blu-ray disc sales.

Using that same old graph Grubert used, Blu-ray went off the top of the scale for this week (highest ever) while HDDVD is still below the 30k line (that it's only managed to pass twice this year)...

If HDDVD disc sales STILL haven't increased by the end of June, maybe Toshiba will be doing a dual format player....

The Nielson rule of thumb is that if a consumer has a choice with the purchase the movie title is counted as a sale. If the conusmer has no choice (King Kong Talledagea Knights Casino Royale in PAL land etc) the movie title is not counted asa a sale.

Its possible that Nielson in its counting could subtract out the Matrix SKU numbers if they were considered bound and intergral in the sale at that retailer?.

Not saying this happened , but maybe?

I think there's a lot of confusion about the Nielson numbers, and what exactly gets tracked. If there is a SKU-related scan transaction, that's what gets tracked. Movies included for free inside of the packaging for *other* SKUs do not count (ie PS3 w/Talladega, HD DVD w/King Kong), but if it's an HD DVD player with an offer of grabbing two movies off the shelf, both those movies should count numerically towards the reported total, because they will have been scanned individually at checkout.

Everything else aside, I'll say this also - for as apples : oranges a comparison as PotC to Matrix is (even though Pirates wins anyway you slice it), I have little doubt that were Matrix to have been released on Blu-ray, we would have seen the BD version of the movie far outsell the HD DVD version. We'll of course see if this holds any water if/when Warner decides to put it out on Blu-ray.

Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.If I predicted that the stock market would go up (or down), at some point I would be bound to be right if we just waited long enough. :)

We are talking about somebody here who posted around February 14th that his prediction had been right about HD DVD going ahead, after people found some way to get $5 off on Amazon (which Amazon later cancelled on many orders) that resulted in HD DVD going ahead on Amazon for that night, claimed around early March that HD DVD was going to kick Blu-ray's butt (or words to that effect) on March 27th, later wrote an article for his site around April 15th that HD DVD was now ahead because it had gone ahead on Amazon that day, with no mention of the organized buy day here meant to manipulate the numbers that was the cause (although that article may not be on his site anymore), wrote an article about how the PS3 did not turn the sales around like some had hoped which he later updated with more stuff and gave no indication of how wrong it was (even though we can all see that the PS3 did turn the sales around).

I think HD DVD could start winning some weeks here based mostly on Toshiba's price drop (as I have said), but the stuff along the lines of, "I told you so" lose their meaning after the person has been wrong multiple times on the subject.

Since this has basically been going on since at least the middle of February, how many more weeks are people supposed to give and then believe the person when they say their prediction was right?

--Darin

Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.Unless HD DVD grabs weekly shares of 70+, no.
You may have to give him a couple weeks until the HD DVD player sales kick HD DVD movies up a few notches.

The Nielson/Videoscan sales numbers (first alert at that) may be lagging HD DVD player sales by a few weeks.The deal was going on the entire week of these figures, and HD DVD PRG felt it was such a huge boost that they had to crow about it. Fat lot of good it did.
This weeks numbers are about the same as last weeks around a 60/40 split, which is still better than the average in the 1st quarter.Wow, I don't know if you're reading the numbers wrong or pulling them out of your ass.

May 20: Blu-ray, 58:42
May 27: Blu-ray, 69:31

I'm not seeing how 69: 31 is as close to 60:40 as 58:42 is.

The performance of neutral titles tell us more about consumer preferences. The sales gap of neutral releases are pretty close. So consumers preference for a format isn't clear at all. Just look at Flags, Letters and Planet Earth for reference....

I am happy to report I was spot on with the sale ratio, since I expected PoTC to sell way more than the Matrix, given that the Matrix cost more and was bundled. Plus the over 1M player advantage for BD.

As for the impact of the new players. Let us be mindful that even the PS3 sales impact of software took a few weeks to kick in. We should see some impact in the next 2-3 weeks.

If anything this week shows that the format war is very much on and BD is nowhere close to have won it - given their very low volumes. The difference in the number of people who have an HD DVD version of The Matrix and either PoTC movie is in the 10K or so range. Not big at all. I'd say almost insignificant.

Flags and Letters on Blu-ray, however, had much more competition in price than they did on HDDVD and with much more recent, if not more popular, titles. Otherwise it would have been, at best, the typical 60-40 to 70-30 split we always see.

Using that same old graph Grubert used, Blu-ray went off the top of the scale for this week (highest ever) while HDDVD is still below the 30k line (that it's only managed to pass twice this year)...

Not quite sure I follow you here. The graph posted was not updated with the new figures. According to Grubert, both are at highs for the year:

"So actual sales could be 80K/36K, 85K/38K or even 90K/40K. The best week for both formats in all year"

As far as how to count the titles with a box set, there is no exact science, but I think things like this can be good indicators of who is just being biased by using whatever rules will help their side and would use different rules if things were reversed. For instance, if a Blu-ray fan wants to count the Matrix box sets as if they were one movie, will they feel the same when/if it comes out on Blu-ray? Or what if Sony decides to release Spiderman 3 by itself and as a box set with the other 2 (not way to just buy the first one out of the gate), should the box set of all 3 count the same as if somebody just bought the 3rd one? Doesn't seem like that would make sense to me. As I said, there is no exact science to this. On the other hand, people here should be able to be reasonable about these things. I know that some make it pretty obvious to me that they are willing to mislead in order to help one format.

--Darin

I am happy to report I was spot on with the sale ratio, since I expected PoTC to sell way more than the Matrix, given that the Matrix cost more and was bundled. Plus the over 1M player advantage for BD.I'm not sure why you are saying that you were spot on when your prediction was:
61/39 BD.--Darin

jebel and MarekM got the percentage and the first two movies right. jebel even guessed #3 would be Matrix only he picked the wrong one. :)

Most people underestimated Blu-ray's percentage by 10 points or more (including myself).

Darin, thanks for correcting me. I did underestimate the BD sales margin (I guess it was switching the last digits).

Overall the volumes seem just way too small. It looks like fewer than 10% of HD DVD players bought the Matrix and far fewer than 10% bought PoTC. I am not sure what studios will think of that, particularly since this is a trial period....

I wonder why the comparision is 47K PoTC v. 13.9K Matrix. Is it expected that people who bought one set were also candidates for the other, or were the two sets substitutes for each other. So what is the most accurate way to describe the difference? in $ terms (like they do for movies, I mean they don't say movie x sold y number of tickets), or in SKU terms as we are seeing being reported? Do studios care more about the $ or units? Anyone who works for a studio could shed some light here.

What about the significance that neutral titles were a lot closer than they usually are...across the board. AFAIK.

jebel and MarekM got the percentage and the first two movies right. jebel even guessed #3 would be Matrix only he picked the wrong one. :)

Most people underestimated Blu-ray's percentage by 10 points or more (including myself).

People = HD-DVD owners.

Not quite sure I follow you here. The graph posted was not updated with the new figures. According to Grubert, both are at highs for the year:

"So actual sales could be 80K/36K, 85K/38K or even 90K/40K. The best week for both formats in all year"


Right. HDDVD before peaked in between the 30k and 40k lines. This time it may actually reach the 40k line, but is still under it. That old graph needs to be rescaled or Blu-ray shoots off the top (which only goes to 70k) for this last week.

So what is the most accurate way to describe the difference?Since it is complicated, we may need to say that one was a box set and then give both sets of numbers. I don't know that it is important to include the price in all these, so something like "13.9k sets (for 41.7k movies)" would work for me. I also think that the fairest way to do TV series is probably to count one for each season, but I know that there can be exceptions and more complications there.
... in $ terms (like they do for movies, I mean they don't say movie x sold y number of tickets) ...In some countries they do (at least I've seen admissions listed). In some ways it would make it easier to compare movies where tickets were different prices (adjust for inflation) if they did that. But you are right. For the most part, movies at theaters are judged by dollars, movie rentals tend to be in dollars, while movie sales tend to be in number of sales. Not sure how they each ended up that way.
... or in SKU terms as we are seeing being reported? Do studios care more about the $ or units?I think Warner answered that one with the Matrix sets. I'm sure they could have sold more than 13.9k units this last week if they had just released the first movie by itself, even if the 2nd and 3rd hadn't come out.
What about the significance that neutral titles were a lot closer than they usually are...across the board. AFAIK.Both sides had positive things this week and if anybody needed any proof that HD DVD hasn't lost (at least not yet), Planet Earth continues to provide it each week. For some other titles, (like The Departed) it seems like the relative sales have been better for HD DVD than for later weeks. Kind of like a more serious group, but not very widespread. It will be interesting to see if that changes with the price drops on the Toshiba players, although we unfortunately probably won't be able to get all the data we would like to get on that.

The combo disc doing better ratio wise than the non-combo (for Iwo Jima and Flags) is an interesting occurance (at least to me :)).

--Darin

As for the impact of the new players. Let us be mindful that even the PS3 sales impact of software took a few weeks to kick in. We should see some impact in the next 2-3 weeks.




The Toshiba HD DVD player sale has been going what about a week? Yet some purposely attach unrealistically high expectations for disc sales. Get real, there were no free movies when I bought my player yet I didn't run out right away buying disc and I'm a movie enthusiast. Buyers of the current sale probably bought The Matrix and got 2 free movies, they are also waiting on their 5 free movies. Therefore, I'm sure many will watch what they have over and over before splurging on more HD DVDs.

How are the Sony BDA 50% off and buy 2 get 1 free fire sales being factored into the grand scheme of things? HD disc have never had those kinds of fire sales to artificially cook the numbers for bragging rights. It sure would be nice if HD DVD were on sale like that then we might have a more level playing field to better judge.

Everything else aside, I'll say this also - for as apples : oranges a comparison as PotC to Matrix is (even though Pirates wins anyway you slice it), I have little doubt that were Matrix to have been released on Blu-ray, we would have seen the BD version of the movie far outsell the HD DVD version. We'll of course see if this holds any water if/when Warner decides to put it out on Blu-ray.
The only way a BD Matrix vs HD Matrix comparison makes any sense is if they were released on the same day.

How are the Sony BDA 50% off and buy 2 get 1 free fire sales being factored into the grand scheme of things? HD disc have never had those kinds of fire sales to artificially cook the numbers for bragging rights. It sure would be nice if HD DVD were on sale like that then we might have a more level playing field to better judge.Given that the Amazon 50% was not 50% off normal prices (it was 50% off MSRP), the sale on HD DVDs recently at Frys might have been even more off MSRP (although required people to buy more than one disc). Frys has also had sales on Blu-ray. I'm not sure exactly how these offers with free movies (including the 4 free movies instantly with an HD DVD player from a few weeks ago or the 2 free HD DVD discs with an HD-A2 and the Matrix this last weekend) are counted.

BTW: You used "fire sale" twice in your post. Does that apply to the HD DVD disc sale at Frys also? :) How about to the HD DVD player sale?

It does seem to me that if people buying the HD-A2 this last week knew about the deal with 2 free movies if they bought one of the Matrix sets at the same time, then half of them should have taken advantage of it at least. If that were the case, then the 13.9k that includes all current owners would seem to put some kind of lid on what player sales were. But maybe most buying the HD-A2 didn't even take advantage of that Matrix deal.

--Darin

Given that the Amazon 50% was not 50% off normal prices (it was 50% off MSRP), the sale on HD DVDs recently at Frys might have been even more off MSRP (although required people to buy more than one disc). Frys has also had sales on Blu-ray. I'm not sure exactly how these offers with free movies (including the 4 free movies instantly with an HD DVD player from a few weeks ago or the 2 free HD DVD discs with an HD-A2 and the Matrix this last weekend) are counted.

BTW: You used "fire sale" twice in your post. Does that apply to the HD DVD disc sale at Frys also? :) How about to the HD DVD player sale?


--Darin

Are you trying to equate a disc sale on Amazon with a small selection of disc on sale at Fry's? Surely you aren't are you?

The only way a BD Matrix vs HD Matrix comparison makes any sense is if they were released on the same day.
...and for the same PRICE. Money matters, don't care what anyone says, some guys are making this harder then it has to be, so much scientific overkill for crissakes....a $25 movie vs a $70 3-piece set with a known lemon is not a fight, so unless that $70 set has "LOTR" or "Star Wars" on the cover, the argument is just plain nuts....the cheaper software should win that volume battle. Bang for buck always matters, even for upitty BR owners - how many times has a movie come out for both formats and we see all the guys who claim to be neutral throw out: "Cool! The BD version is $5 - $10 cheaper? I'm buyin' that one!"

I think the surprising Engadget (I think it was them?) piece was correct - pound for pound, this was pretty close considering the circumstances....sorry, no math needed.

Metrics people, metrics. These are razors and blades. Sony is selling a great # of game machines to sell games. For HDM, the real sales are players and HD is frying BD. The end game is the $ volume of the blades. PS3's are paint scrapers.

Metrics people, metrics. These are razors and blades. Sony is selling a great # of game machines to sell games. For HDM, the real sales are players and HD is frying BD. The end game is the $ volume of the blades. PS3's are paint scrapers.

Sounds like you've been doing something with paint, but it certainly wasn't scraping it. ;)

So if the PS3 is only going to sell games, who is buying 69 of every 100 HD disks sold?

So if the PS3 is only going to sell games, who is buying 69 of every 100 HD disks sold?

It must be the Blu-ray standalones since they were only behind a monstrous 4% when the price differentials were $500+ :rolleyes:

We shall see

The only way a BD Matrix vs HD Matrix comparison makes any sense is if they were released on the same day.

Yes!

The ratio of sales for Departed was 62:38 in favor of Blu-ray.

While different titles perform differently, my guess is that Matrix would have been about the same, assuming equivalent features on the same day.

Of course, it is also possible that there will be more Blu-ray players when Matrix is finally released on Blu-ray and that could alter the numbers.

Yes!

The ratio of sales for Departed was 62:38 in favor of Blu-ray.

While different titles perform differently, my guess is that Matrix would have been about the same, assuming equivalent features on the same day.


What kind of voodoo statistical predictions are you making? The departed cost more on HD than on BD.

No need to be so vague. The figures are:

Potc Movies = 47,000 units (7,000 more than your 'guess')
Matrix sets = 13,900 units (you got one right!)

That's a crushing 77:23 victory for Blu-ray on the big showdown of the week.


Here we are...grown men...comparing the sales volume of an $80+ product to a $25+ product. Jeebus freakin kripes.

Here we are...grown men...comparing the sales volume of an $80+ product to a $25+ product. Jeebus freakin kripes.

huh? :eek: Disney is using the figures to tell the world that the figures show hidef interest in BD :lol: :D :D :D :D

This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on Blu-ray. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.

If I had both a BD player and an HD player, I'd buy the "cheaper" BD version of ANY dual release movie.

Not exactly rocket science...not sure why we are curious.

More figures:

The 6 BD titles we have figures for have sold just over 74K units.
The 5 HD DVD titles we have figures fore have sold a little over 25K units.

So actual sales could be 80K/36K, 85K/38K or even 90K/40K. The best week for both formats in all year
Grubert, I think your totals are too conservative. Since we know the total for the top 10, the ratio for the top 10, and the ratio for everything, we can make some projections about what the total sales were, and what the sales ratio for BD was for everything not in the top 10:

http://img474.imageshack.us/img474/934/salesprojectionsbz3.jpg

So, if you decide what percentage of total sales is represented by the top 10 sales, just find that position on the X-axis and you can see the calculated total sales in the bars and the sales ratio for BD for all HDM sales for titles not in the top 10 represented by the line.

If we assume that this was a great week for HDM due to the new releases, then we must choose a high percentage of total sales for the top 10. Unfortunately, this also means that BD had a less than 1:1 ratio for market share for the rest of the title catalog.

If we could get top-10 sales numbers going forward we could see if HD DVD has any growth outside of the new releases. This could help to identify trends in new hardware sales if we assume that those purchases will drive purchases of previous releases.

If I had both a BD player and an HD player, I'd buy the "cheaper" BD version of ANY dual release movie.

Not exactly rocket science...not sure why we are curious.The reason it is curious is because it is the exact opposite of your explanation. It was the disc that didn't have the price advantage that did better on Blu-ray compared to HD DVD (1.39:1 for the one that cost the same and only 1.21:1 for the movie where the Blu-ray was cheaper). There could be multiple reasons, but if enough people consider the DVD side of the combo disc to be an advantage (especially for a day-and-date), then that could overcome the cost difference. There are bound to be people who buy it because of the extra feature (the DVD side) and people who will avoid it because of the extra cost associated with that feature.

--Darin

jebel and MarekM got the percentage and the first two movies right. jebel even guessed #3 would be Matrix only he picked the wrong one. :)

Most people underestimated Blu-ray's percentage by 10 points or more (including myself).

I've got first three movies righ :) can I have something ? ;)

Marek

HD DVD has been marketed more as a movie player

What have the standalone BD players from Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer been marketed as? Living room decoration?

Universal with its strong catalog titles is more likely to release a deeper more enthisast catalog than the Blu-ray studios...

Huh? Only Universal has great classic movies? And more of them than Disney, Fox and Sony combined?

...catering to a day and date release crowd and chasing the PS3 demographics as the dominant Blu-ray player.

You do realise that the dominant HD-DVD player is the xBox add-on, don't you? Maybe you will try to explain next that xBox owners are completely different from PS3 owners... Good thing, then, that the xBox freebie was that milestone of cinematic art, King Kong...

there are some reasons to factor in that at least early HD DVD buyers may be more movie buffs (buying the more expensive standalones) rather than PS3 buyers.

Again, huh? I always thought that a) Blu-ray standalones were even more expensive than HD-DVD standalones and b) both formats are dominated by game consoles.

the Blu-ray studios have been releasing more recent releases than HD DVD has as an acknowledgment of that fact.

This whole argument is way too silly for me to go and count the day-and-date/recent/classic releases for both formats just to prove you wrong. But as I'm sure you didn't make this effort either and are just guessing, I will just say that I don't think there is any statistically relevant difference. Well, apart from the fact that Blu-ray studios release more successful blockbusters because they have them...

What have the standalone BD players from Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer been marketed as? Living room decoration?



Huh? Only Universal has great classic movies? And more of them than Disney, Fox and Sony combined?



You do realise that the dominant HD-DVD player is the xBox add-on, don't you? Maybe you will try to explain next that xBox owners are completely different from PS3 owners... Good thing, then, that the xBox freebie was that milestone of cinematic art, King Kong...



Again, huh? I always thought that a) Blu-ray standalones were even more expensive than HD-DVD standalones and b) both formats are dominated by game consoles.



This whole argument is way too silly for me to go and count the day-and-date/recent/classic releases for both formats just to prove you wrong. But as I'm sure you didn't make this effort either and are just guessing, I will just say that I don't think there is any statistically relevant difference. Well, apart from the fact that Blu-ray studios release more successful blockbusters because they have them...

Exactly!

Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.

Only the prediction was not for 'a few weeks' from now. It 'matured' at the end of May.

And I'm not gloating, just summing up the current status to see how far off the prediction was.

He can make a prediction for June. And as others have said, he may even get it right this time... so he'd be batting about 20. ;)


This weeks numbers are about the same as last weeks around a 60/40 split

If 69% is around 60% we are getting realllly fuzzy here. ;)

You do realise that the dominant HD-DVD player is the xBox add-on, don't you? Maybe you will try to explain next that xBox owners are completely different from PS3 owners... Good thing, then, that the xBox freebie was that milestone of cinematic art, King Kong...



Again, huh? I always thought that a) Blu-ray standalones were even more expensive than HD-DVD standalones and b) both formats are dominated by game consoles.





There is a difference even if you don't want to acknowledge it. First the PS3 and Xbox are primarily game consoles first HD DVD players second. The distinction is with xbox you made a conscience decision to watch HD DVDs by purchasing the player. Those players are more likely to be used for watching HDM than the average PS3. BTW bluray is skewed way more toward game consoles than HD DVD thanks to PS3s and that not even debatable.

Here we are...grown men...comparing the sales volume of an $80+ product to a $25+ product. Jeebus freakin kripes.

I know. Isn't it terrible. Any suggestions for an alternative lifestyle? :rolleyes:

Thanks for taking the time out of your hectic schedule to bring us back to reality. :p

How are the Sony BDA 50% off and buy 2 get 1 free fire sales being factored into the grand scheme of things?

They're being factored in like this: they contribute to unit sales.

HD disc have never had those kinds of fire sales to artificially cook the numbers for bragging rights. It sure would be nice if HD DVD were on sale like that then we might have a more level playing field to better judge.

Do you see people sitting here complaining about the 'unfair' practice of Toshiba offering half-price players? The "ploy?" No - because that would be ridiculous. The price of the player as it stands is an advantage of the format. So to say that Blu-ray is pulling shenanigans by offering disc prices that are better than HD DVDs prices in order to 'artificially' boost sale numbers to me seems equally ridiculous.

Here we are...grown men...comparing the sales volume of an $80+ product to a $25+ product. Jeebus freakin kripes.

What's happening here is that people are pointing to the sales figures between the two and basically saying: "told you so." Grown men do that all the time, as you must be aware. There would be little cause for this in the first place if the preceding weeks hadn't resembled an echo chamber proclaiming Matrix's upcoming "profound" effects on the weekly sales figures... but that's exactly what this place was. Where was the logic of cheaper software and greater volumes then among the HD DVD fans? I agree it was always the reasonable assumption, but then I don't think it was ever the BD supporters that were the ones making claims that $60+ bundles would outsell the separated Disney offerings.

The distinction is with xbox you made a conscience decision to watch HD DVDs by purchasing the player. Those players are more likely to be used for watching HDM than the average PS3.

Very true, and no-one denied that. BUT the context was "taste in movies" - do you think that those who use an xBox for watching hi-def have a different taste than those using the PS3 to watch hi-def? Me neither.

BTW bluray is skewed way more toward game consoles than HD DVD thanks to PS3s and that not even debatable.

I don't think so, and you cannot have it both ways. As you so rightly pointed out, a lot of PS3s are not used for watching hi-def. If you count only those that are actually used to watch hi-def, Blu-ray is not really "skewed way more toward game consoles" than HD-DVD.

Huh? Only Universal has great classic movies?
No.

And more of them than Disney, Fox and Sony combined?
Yes.

Here we are...grown men...comparing the sales volume of an $80+ product to a $25+ product. Jeebus freakin kripes.

Yeah ...kinda reminds me of grown men comparing a $599 product to that of a $249 product. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Very true, and no-one denied that. BUT the context was "taste in movies" - do you think that those who use an xBox for watching hi-def have a different taste than those using the PS3 to watch hi-def? Me neither.


Sure I do HD DVDs are more varied and balanced with catalog and popcorn flicks. Whereas BDs are basically recent popcorn flicks all the time everytime.



I don't think so, and you cannot have it both ways. As you so rightly pointed out, a lot of PS3s are not used for watching hi-def. If you count only those that are actually used to watch hi-def, Blu-ray is not really "skewed way more toward game consoles" than HD-DVD.

They are skewed insofar as the total number of PS3 dominate the BD market; they probably have a 90 - 10% install base over BD standalones. Still disagree?

I think you BD supporters should do the right thing and throw in the towel. With $250 HD DVD players you won't even feel the pinch. Then once the public sees that the water is fine, they will also rush to those affordable players, and it's on to HD DVD VS SD DVD.

After all, your first generation BD players may not be fully compliant by the end of the year anyway, and your PS3 is still good for games and to play what your obsolete BD software. For the good of Hi-def, make this small sacrifice.

see how realistic that sounds???
I have both players because I want to watch the movies, not the blinking lights on the box.

I'm not exactly thrilled at having to buy a HD DVD Ultimate Matrix after I already decided to continue my collection in BD. I still have to buy the occasional Universal title, and the warner occcasional decision to have releases like the matrix also made me have a few more red disk ruin the all blue collection.

Blast from the past : About two years before Betamax VHS war was declared over by Rolling Stones magazine. Betamax players were selling below $300. All this did was force VHS players from Quasar(panasonic) and RCA to be sold at below $300 one year alter. And the price war did benefit the VHS owners. The only people hurt were the ones who could only afford a single betamax player and bought in that two years before the war was really over. ;)

As is typical with these things, the early adopters who are in it for the movies have to buy both formats or none, doesn't mean we like having two players in there --- the connections become messy.

But besides the clear advantage in movie selection, it's much easier to keep the PS3 than the HD-A1 (HD-A2 is better), because the HD-A1 is a primitive player chock-full of bugs that is practically unusable by anyone but masochists.

Despite the clearly wrong decision by Samsung to force a noise filter into their player, the Samsung BD-P1000 is a much more "finished product" from a usability feature.

Part of the reason is the higher headroom that the blu format allows for movies compared to the red format --- meaning more disks bump too close to the edge for red format, cause occasional glitches more often than the blue format. But the real reason, was the intel P4 in the HD-A1 having to decode pip to help the broadcomm 7411's main feature decode. The whole HD-A1 design was a hack-job.

As for the HD-A2, it's still puzzling what the celeron in there does --- it can't be the 2nd video, so that leaves some unknown thing that the NEC SOC forgot to do, which is still a mystery. Usability though is quite high with the HD-A2.

There is a difference even if you don't want to acknowledge it. First the PS3 and Xbox are primarily game consoles first HD DVD players second. The distinction is with xbox you made a conscience decision to watch HD DVDs by purchasing the player. Those players are more likely to be used for watching HDM than the average PS3. BTW bluray is skewed way more toward game consoles than HD DVD thanks to PS3s and that not even debatable.

I think that for every 360 add-on sold, someone else bought a PS3 with the intent to buy and watch movies. The Nielsen numbers seem to back me up, so what evidence do you have to prove me wrong?

Does anyone have the estimated unit sales for the week of PotC vs Matrix? I wonder if that week is strong enough to top 100K --- that's purely a psychological milestone, but a good one nonetheless, and until spidey3, 300 and potc4, there's nothing in the coming days to move that until player prices come down.

There is a difference even if you don't want to acknowledge it. First the PS3 and Xbox are primarily game consoles first HD DVD players second. The distinction is with xbox you made a conscience decision to watch HD DVDs by purchasing the player. Those players are more likely to be used for watching HDM than the average PS3. BTW bluray is skewed way more toward game consoles than HD DVD thanks to PS3s and that not even debatable.

And there are people who consciously purchased a PS3 with the intent to watch BD movies. What's your point?

What kind of voodoo statistical predictions are you making? The departed cost more on HD than on BD.





The 62:38 is not "voodoo", it is from Home Media Magazine.

As to the pricing, the HD DVD of Departed was more expensive because it was a combo. The desirability of combos is hotly debated. While many hate them, the studios claim that there research shows that people like combos and will pay for them.

And there are people who consciously purchased a PS3 with the intent to watch BD movies. What's your point?

My point is with the 360 you know the intent my them buying a separate HD player. So I'll ask you, how can you tell which PS3 buyers intend to use if for movies instead of game or along with games or no movies at all?