The problem is that you can't. You definitely can't go to the other extreme and assume they're not buying movies at all. Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence. The only difference from parity in disc sales (which was accompanied by a massive :rolleyes: 4% Toshiba lead in standalone sales) from today's 2:1 - 4:1 Blu-ray lead in disc sales is the PS3.

Give him a few weeks. Your gloating may seem hollow in a few weeks.


Kosty, I am, still waiting for the PS3 bump to go down. Funny how it is just wait a bit longer. Funny how stores had bonus movies with the players so it should have an immediate effect (if the player sales were any good) Funny how not even 24h after the PS3 came out you were here blowing your horn how the PS3 did not help BD sales.

The Nielson rule of thumb is that if a consumer has a choice with the purchase the movie title is counted as a sale. If the conusmer has no choice (King Kong Talledagea Knights Casino Royale in PAL land etc) the movie title is not counted asa a sale.

Its possible that Nielson in its counting could subtract out the Matrix SKU numbers if they were considered bound and intergral in the sale at that retailer?.

Not saying this happened , but maybe?

Kosty, not at all the rule of thumb is simple . Companies either give (or not) their numbers to VS. If they do VS has their numbers by SKU, if they don't give their numbers then VS has no idea what was sold. Companies can't decide what sku's to give, they can't decide what not include because they are free or discounted and even more obvious VS does not get the player SKU info, so there would be no way for them to subtract these numbers.

The difference is dual format owners wanting to save 5 bucks. When there are equally priced, identically full-featured titles, you can make a better comparison. Like with Planet Earth.

you mean like Flags? :)

Does anyone have the estimated unit sales for the week of PotC vs Matrix? I wonder if that week is strong enough to top 100K --- that's purely a psychological milestone, but a good one nonetheless, and until spidey3, 300 and potc4, there's nothing in the coming days to move that until player prices come down.

Potc Movies = 47,000
Matrix sets = 13,900
but not sure if they are VS or HMM numbers

Potc Movies = 47,000
Matrix sets = 13,900
but not sure if they are VS or HMM numbers

There are maybe 2 million PS3s and BD standalones in north america and around 200 - 250 thousand HD DVD players so why not extrapolate that according to install base? Why not do all sales since inception by install base also?

The problem is that you can't. You definitely can't go to the other extreme and assume they're not buying movies at all. Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence. The only difference from parity in disc sales (which was accompanied by a massive :rolleyes: 4% Toshiba lead in standalone sales) from today's 2:1 - 4:1 Blu-ray lead in disc sales is the PS3.

You can't tell individually but BD should be cleaning HD DVD's clock with over 2 million players and all that sacred BD content.

I wonder if that week is strong enough to top 100K --- that's purely a psychological milestone, but a good one nonetheless, and until spidey3, 300 and potc4, there's nothing in the coming days to move that until player prices come down.

Sales were definitely over 100K aggregate HDM. Probably the second best week in hidef optical media, only behind the week before Christmas.

Top 10 high-def sellers
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100.00
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.35
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.68
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86[/i]


If POTC2+POTC1=47000, then I suppose the breakdown looks like this

Top 10 high-def sellers RATIO UNITS BD SALES HD SALES
1 POTC: Dead Man's Chest BD 100 24751 24751
2 POTC: Black Pearl BD 89.89 22248 22248
3 Apocalypto BD 73.73 18249 18249
4 Ultimate Matrix Coll HD 33.28 8237 8237
5 Letters from Iwo Jima BD 26.28 6504 6504
6 Complete Matrix Coll HD 25.88 6405 6405
7 Letters from Iwo Jima HD 22.06 5460 5460
8 Planet Earth HD 17.55 4343 4343
9 Casino Royale BD 13.64 3376 3376
10 Flags of our Fathers BD 11.86 2935 2935
TOTAL 78065 24446


As for the rest of the titles lower on that list, BD would have to sell 22K to cross 100K/wk, it's very likely to do so. HD would have to sell 76K for the rest to cross 100K. With only 6 of their titles on the top 10, I say it is likely that BD did cross 100K/wk that week if the other 100+ disks are added, but HD DVD is unlikely to do the same. At least if PotC2+1 sold only 47K for BD.

There are maybe 2 million PS3s and BD standalones in north america and around 200 - 250 thousand HD DVD players so why not extrapolate that according to install base? Why not do all sales since inception by install base also?

so? someone asked how many sold. Yes player penetration is important because they put a real ceiling on numbers (an why anyone can see D DVD does not have a chance). But who cares if the first week 20% 30% or 50% of players? do you know if next week an other 50k copies will be sold of POC and 0 of Matrix on HD DVD?

You can't tell individually but BD should be cleaning HD DVD's clock with over 2 million players and all that sacred BD content.

and it is. That is why in less then a year and with 2-3 month head start BD has a higher SI sales number (and higher sales numbers all this year)

and it is. That is why in less then a year and with 2-3 month head start BD has a higher SI sales number (and higher sales numbers all this year)
As been said a bazillion times over...

2.2X the weekly disc sales or whatever with 9X the players isn't very impressive. Remember, the real growth market for HD players is not $600 consoles. It's standalones of course.

BD needs to get its assets in gear, and reduce the prices of its players, to something significantly lower than $599.

Neo1965: only one poroblem, I went back http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10717
Within a week, consumers had spent more than $2 million on those releases alone, according to Home Media Magazine market research estimates. The two “Pirates” films sold a combined total of nearly 47,000 units, while the higher-priced “Matrix” sets sold about 13,900 units.

you can't compare VS #s and HMM#s HMM tries to calculate the whole, so they should be higher then VS numbers

As been said a bazillion times over...

2.2X the weekly disc sales or whatever with 9X the players isn't very impressive. Remember, the real growth market for HD players is not $600 consoles. It's standalones of course.

and as has been stated a bazillion times in reponse only morons and HD DVD fanboys that want to mislead actually care. Is DVD a failure, have you done the same math for it? Do you think a studio gives a sh!t because you decided that if there was 2M HD DVD players the title would have sold in the same %. HD DVD has very few people with players and those very few are people that love buying movies. If it ever gets to a decent amount of players it will have a lot more of renters and occasional buyers.

Yeah ...kinda reminds me of grown men comparing a $599 product to that of a $249 product. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Who exactly are these grown men comparing PS3 to HD-A2? One is a video game, the other is a movie player. I haven't seen any comparisons.

Neo1965: only one poroblem, I went back http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10717


you can't compare VS #s and HMM#s HMM tries to calculate the whole, so they should be higher then VS numbers

The two matrix sets together did sell about 14K, which seems to match the HMM numbers. I agree the numbers depend on HMM numbers being close to Videoscan, so it is still a conjecture.

Who exactly are these grown men comparing PS3 to HD-A2? One is a video game, the other is a movie player. I haven't seen any comparisons.
Because after trying the panasonic, samsung and the PS3. I decided to keep the PS3 as a BD player. One of my two PS3s has never even played a single game before :D

you mean like Flags? :)

No. He means like Planet Earth.

No. He means like Planet Earth.

Yeah, he was obviously being selective on the one title that makes his point.

Yeah, he was obviously being selective on the one title that makes his point.

PE has been out longer that fact might be why it was chosen.

Week ending May 27, 2007

Week: Blu-ray 69 HD DVD 31
YTD: Blu-ray 67 HD DVD 33
SI: Blu-ray 58 HD DVD 42



Interestingly YTD stayed the same as last week. The reason why it is surprising is that it had just moved to 67/33 last week (from 68/32).

From what others have calculated, I see that top 6 BD had 78K of unit sales. With that number I would have expected 100K to have been just about breached - but it has possibly not happened - otherwise we would have heard about it.

Last week I had assumed 67.3 for YTD BD. If I use that, considering the max for this week on YTD for BD can be only 67.4444.... the max BD I can get to is about 85K. Thats too low. So, I'm going to tweek last week's 67.3 a bit - to 67.28 - and keep this week's numbers at 67.44 for BD. Given that I expect BD/HD weekly ratio to fall back - this means I expect the YTD to remain 67/33 next week. Otherwise I'll have to relook at these figures.

This gives a number for BD for this week at 94K. Pls remember these are rough (I do mean rough !) estimates.

http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/2826/bdhdweeklyuu4.png (http://imageshack.us)

Interestingly YTD stayed the same as last week. The reason why it is surprising is that it had just moved to 67/33 last week (from 68/32).

From what others have calculated, I see that top 6 BD had 78K of unit sales. With that number I would have expected 100K to have been just about breached - but it has possibly not happened - otherwise we would have heard about it.

Last week I had assumed 67.3 for YTD BD. If I use that, considering the max for this week on YTD for BD can be only 67.4444.... the max BD I can get to is about 85K. Thats too low. So, I'm going to tweek last week's 67.3 a bit - to 67.28 - and keep this week's numbers at 67.44 for BD. Given that I expect BD/HD weekly ratio to fall back - this means I expect the YTD to remain 67/33 next week. Otherwise I'll have to relook at these figures.

This gives a number for BD for this week at 94K. Pls remember these are rough (I do mean rough !) estimates.

If the total BD sales figure was at 94K then the following should also be true:


Total HDM Sales combined was 136K
The top 10 represented 72% of all HDM sales
HD outsold BD 60:40 for all sales outside of the top 10

They are skewed insofar as the total number of PS3 dominate the BD market; they probably have a 90 - 10% install base over BD standalones. Still disagree?

What is the drama here? I swear no one is as obsessed with spinning the PS3 'effect' to the extent the HD DVD hardcore are. 100 players, 1 billion players - everything else aside here are the facts as are made apparent by the sale numbers week after week. We cannot know what percentage of PS3s are used for BD playback; yes, the percentage is low. But whatever the case, we can infer that regardless of what that percentage is, in absolute terms there are more individuals actively purchasing BD films than there are individuals actively purchasing HD DVD films. Why everyone obsesses with regard to the vector or the means around here is beyond me. Pretend that the PS3 didn't exist, and that instead those that use it exclusively for gaming have something called the "GameStation," and those that use it for BD playback or more have something called the "MovieStation."

Everything else aside, it is clear that the "MovieStation" is presently the most prolific player, and the BD sales results are reflected in this. People saying that the PS3 attach rate is abysmal does nothing to diminish the fact that abysmal though that rate may be, it still "wins" week after week in the Nielsen.

HD DVD should be so lucky as to be in a 9x player, 2.2x movie sales situation. But they're not.


BD needs to get its assets in gear, and reduce the prices of its players, to something significantly lower than $599.

I don't think these numbers reflect a situation in which BD is the one that needs to get in gear. What happens after the $199 threshold gets crossed (which we're already near at this point), the call goes out for us to wait and see what happens when $99 HD DVD players hit?

Interestingly YTD stayed the same as last week. The reason why it is surprising is that it had just moved to 67/33 last week (from 68/32).


This is weird, especially since the slower moving average, SI, moved a point in favour of BD.

Of course, the YTD numbers are much closer to this week's number, meaning there would be less pull...

It will be interesting to see if there are strong sales again next week... and if so, where the numbers go...

If total BD was 94K, that's still the highest this year. However, if the PotC total was 47K, then the top 10 combined list should mean that that list alone (BD has 6 on that list) sold 78K BD disks. With another 100+ disks making up the rest, you'd think that 22K should not be too difficult to cross. But again... there's not enough hard facts to know for sure.

and as has been stated a bazillion times in reponse only morons and HD DVD fanboys that want to mislead actually care.
:rolleyes:

You know, if you were more civil, you might actually get people believing you for a change.

HD DVD should be so lucky as to be in a 9x player, 2.2x movie sales situation. But they're not.
The PS3 is a temporary solution. Even the Blu-ray CE companies understand this. The whole point seemingly was to have the PS3 annihilate the HD DVD group right from the start, allowing the Blu-ray standalones a chance for graduated introduction to maximize profits.

Clearly that has not happened. The growth market is definitely standalones, but now what the BDA is afraid of (and justifiably so), is growth of HD DVD standalones at the expense of Blu-ray standalones. The vitriol Panasonic had for LG is rather telling, despite the fact the LG combo player is borked for HD and costs way too much (even by Blu-ray standards).


BD needs to get its assets in gear, and reduce the prices of its players, to something significantly lower than $599.I don't think these numbers reflect a situation in which BD is the one that needs to get in gear. What happens after the $199 threshold gets crossed (which we're already near at this point), the call goes out for us to wait and see what happens when $99 HD DVD players hit?
I note that my $599 pricing (which was previously announced) for the Sony was wrong. The price is $499.00 (http://www.crutchfield.com/S-BqjKLIYxGoG/cgi-bin/ProdView.asp?g=279850&I=158BDPS300).

Sony seems to feel the need to at least partially respond to the pricing threats of the HD DVD side. Do you really believe they're doing it simply out of the goodness of their hearts?

It's obvious business sense. It's difficult to see how you could think that standalone introduction would happen with the 1st gen players. While I could have seen such an adoption, possible, I don't believe it would have been a realistic assumption even last year. Seems clear that the 2nd gen players will be much more affordable and likely much more elastic in their street pricing. They hit this summer. In the meantime, the PS3 sales will undoubtedly also increase.

If those 9x players, 2-5x disc sales go to 10-15x players and 5-10x disc sales, it's game over while HDDVD's only hope is to reestablish parity.

It's obvious business sense. It's difficult to see how you could think that standalone introduction would happen with the 1st gen players. While I could have seen such an adoption, possible, I don't believe it would have been a realistic assumption even last year. Seems clear that the 2nd gen players will be much more affordable and likely much more elastic in their street pricing. They hit this summer. In the meantime, the PS3 sales will undoubtedly also increase.

If those 9x players, 2-5x disc sales go to 10-15x players and 5-10x disc sales, it's game over while HDDVD's only hope is to reestablish parity.
That's a pretty big "if". That's an even bigger "if" than $199.99 HD DVD players hitting the market in Q4 IMO.

Hence the concept of a war. ;)

Personally I don't think either side is going to "win" in 2007. Probably not even in 2008 either. And maybe that $299 dual-format player will be out by Xmas 2008 anyway. :)

If total BD was 94K, that's still the highest this year. However, if the PotC total was 47K, then the top 10 combined list should mean that that list alone (BD has 6 on that list) sold 78K BD disks. With another 100+ disks making up the rest, you'd think that 22K should not be too difficult to cross. But again... there's not enough hard facts to know for sure.

Right. I still think there is a good chance of it having crossed 100K and we will hear about it next week. But if we don't, then the chances of more than 100K are very low. Afterall they bragged about 100K shipped for CR and 100K sold in both formats together for Departed - so the first time weekly sales go above 100K is definitely worth a shout.

The PS3 is a temporary solution. Even the Blu-ray CE companies understand this. The whole point seemingly was to have the PS3 annihilate the HD DVD group right from the start, allowing the Blu-ray standalones a chance for graduated introduction to maximize profits.

Clearly that has not happened. The growth market is definitely standalones, but now what the BDA is afraid of (and justifiably so), is growth of HD DVD standalones at the expense of Blu-ray standalones. The vitriol Panasonic had for LG is rather telling, despite the fact the LG combo player is borked for HD and costs way too much (even by Blu-ray standards).



I note that my $599 pricing (which was previously announced) for the Sony was wrong. The price is $499.00 (http://www.crutchfield.com/S-BqjKLIYxGoG/cgi-bin/ProdView.asp?g=279850&I=158BDPS300).

Sony seems to feel the need to at least partially respond to the pricing threats of the HD DVD side. Do you really believe they're doing it simply out of the goodness of their hearts?
The early adopters don't care too much about price, but more mainstream adopters need studio support and price to get interested.

If we follow the playbook of betamax vs VHS, betamax did force the VHS companies to lower their prices. This is good for the customers.

This time around it's essentially Toshiba (and MSFT) vs the entire CE industry. Some companies like LG and Samsung are trying to keep their high margin and go for the dual-format route, but I think the only solution is really lower priced players. If the dual format players had marginal price difference, it could still work. But, I repeat, the only solution is reasonably priced players.

The flip side, is to consider the engineers working in the CE companies : panasonic, pioneer, sony, hitachi, funai, sharp, hitachi, jvc. In some cases, a few had to cancel their player launches because of the rapid downward spiral of the box prices brought on by a price war. Engineers as a rule don't like it when products they work on don't launch.

The engineers at Ome are very nice people, and very capable, but you can't really fight against the entire CE industry and win. You can make it difficult for everyone, and help the consumers get cheaper players, but eventually, the fight is not winnable.

If total BD was 94K, that's still the highest this year. However, if the PotC total was 47K, then the top 10 combined list should mean that that list alone (BD has 6 on that list) sold 78K BD disks. With another 100+ disks making up the rest, you'd think that 22K should not be too difficult to cross. But again... there's not enough hard facts to know for sure.

Looking at the lowest sales numbers I'd think 20K or less is the total of other sales on a weekly basis - for both formats. And the new release sales are a high portion of total sales - thats why we see big swings in numbers week to week depending on releases.

Another important thing is that likely these 20K sales are to new owners - since new owners would want to buy something along with their brand new players. Those people would buy an older title they like ... perhaps except in weeks with popular new releases. The new onwers during such weeks may buy the popular new release instead of an older release. This means, during weeks when popular new releases happen, total of old release sales may actually go down.

The PS3 is a temporary solution. Even the Blu-ray CE companies understand this. The whole point seemingly was to have the PS3 annihilate the HD DVD group right from the start, allowing the Blu-ray standalones a chance for graduated introduction to maximize profits.

Well, the "plan" was also to have PS3 launch six months earlier... and that didn't happen either. If it had, I don't think the possibility of annihilating HD DVD would seem that farfetched. BUT, it doesn't really matter what anyone's plan was or not - you do what you can. Whatever the impact PS3 was supposed to have had... it's been pretty big regardless. I could just as plainly say that according to some, PS3 was 'supposed' to have basically no impact at all upon its launch; but yet here we are discussing it in the context of BDs lead over HD DVD seven months later.

Clearly that has not happened.

Well, what you're saying they were gunning for (annihilation) has not happened; but good things *have* indeed happened for the BD side on the coattails of PS3's launch.

The growth market is definitely standalones, but now what the BDA is afraid of (and justifiably so), is growth of HD DVD standalones at the expense of Blu-ray standalones. The vitriol Panasonic had for LG is rather telling, despite the fact the LG combo player is borked for HD and costs way too much (even by Blu-ray standards).

I think Panasonic's vitriol is what you would expect from any entity that feels betrayed to their detriment; it's less a matter of LG's business moves than the way they went about it vis a vis the BDA. Anyway, but that's all flavor text. To your point that the future growth areas are standalone players, I agree. But HD DVD players can only maintain an edge for however long before BD catches up - afterall, they'll never dip into pricing below $0, and although the HD DVD player prices continue to drop, so to do the spreads between both formats.

I'll note also that for however many PS3 owners are *not* buying Blu-ray movies, the option is only ever ~$20 away. Whether they have made use of it thus far or not, there is a very real latent user base out there, and I imagine that there is a steady trickle of existing owners that join the HD video scene every month.

Sony seems to feel the need to at least partially respond to the pricing threats of the HD DVD side. Do you really believe they're doing it simply out of the goodness of their hearts?

Hard to know what to say to this. You realize that Toshiba's recent price moves are in reaction to the fact that the PS3 launch has completely reversed what was a comfortable lead on their part, right? They are reactive rather than proactive, and likewise to Sony's standalone moves, not made out of any goodness of their hearts. Heck, the entire aggressive price structuring out of Toshiba from the get-go was based on the premise that Sony's PS3 was a looming threat from the BD player side that they had to neutralize as best and quickly as they could.

Well, the "plan" was also to have PS3 launch six months earlier... and that didn't happen either. If it had, I don't think the possibility of annihilating HD DVD would seem that farfetched. BUT, it doesn't really matter what anyone's plan was or not - you do what you can. Whatever the impact PS3 was supposed to have had... it's been pretty big regardless. I could just as plainly say that according to some, PS3 was 'supposed' to have basically no impact at all upon its launch; but yet here we are discussing it in the context of BDs lead over HD DVD seven months later.

Fortunately for Sony it has made a difference as far as Blu Ray is concerned, because as a game console it tanked. Once the rpg's start coming it will pick up a little, as Sony has a stranglehold on the fat, pasty, anime-watching portion of the 18-35 male demographic. Hardware selling PS3 titles like Devil May Cry and Metal Gear going multi platform has to really hurt though.

...

Are we talking high-def media in this thread, or video games? I'll note that you didn't write anything in refutation to any of my (high-def format related) points, and leave it at that.

Hard to know what to say to this. You realize that Toshiba's recent price moves are in reaction to the fact that the PS3 launch has completely reversed what was a comfortable lead on their part, right? They are reactive rather than proactive, and likewise to Sony's standalone moves, not made out of any goodness of their hearts. Heck, the entire aggressive price structuring out of Toshiba from the get-go was based on the premise that Sony's PS3 was a looming threat from the BD player side that they had to neutralize as best and quickly as they could.
Indeed, this was the plan all along. There were articles from 2005 (http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/10/20/business/dvd.php) that confirmed this.

Sony and the BDA were just caught off guard when it actually worked.


Are we talking high-def media in this thread, or video games? I'll note that you didn't write anything in refutation to any of my (high-def format related) points, and leave it at that.
It's extremely difficult to completely separate the PS3-as-a-game-console from the PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player in terms of consumer acceptance. It has been argued that it's sort of a catch-22 situation and I believe that. The PS3-as-a-game-console is expensive because it's also a Blu-ray media system. The PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player is expensive because it's also a game console. Because of this, media sales both on the gaming side and the movie side suffers.

Furthermore, while it would be good for the BD group if each PS3 sale represented the equivalent of one standalone sale, it just doesn't work that way. So what we have is mediocre PS3-as-a-game-console sales numbers, and OK PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player sales numbers, but in an environment when future growth potential is with the standalones.

Toshiba realizes this (and realized this right from 2005 and earlier) and has slashed prices and gotten the Chinese on board. Sony grudgingly realizes this now too, and is now pushing their BDP300 at $500 to try to stimulate standalone sales, knowing full well that the $600 PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player-and-a-game-console is losing steam.

However, at $500, I just don't think they're trying hard enough, possibly partially because they don't want to alienate the rest of the CE companies in the BDA.

It's extremely difficult to completely separate the PS3-as-a-game-console from the PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player in terms of consumer acceptance. It has been argued that it's sort of a catch-22 situation. The PS3-as-a-game-console is expensive because it's also a Blu-ray media system. The PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player is expensive because it's also a game console. Because of this, media sales both on the gaming side and the movie side suffers.

I don't quite see how the price of the PS3 can hinder the sales of movies. Once a person has the PS3 in their home then they can buy games or movies at the normal price. PS3-as-a-game-console definitely hinders it sales for video game use, but I don't see how it hinders its sales as a Blu-Ray player. It is currently the least expensive Blu-Ray player on the market. Although there is no doubt that the $599.99 price tag drives potential buyers away, imo it would of been a better move if Sony canned the $599.99 60 GB PS3 instead of the $499.99 20 GB PS3.

I don't quite see how the price of the PS3 can hinder the sales of movies. Once a person has the PS3 in their home then they can buy games or movies at the normal price. PS3-as-a-game-console definitely hinders it sales for video game use, but I don't see how it hinders its sales as a Blu-Ray player. It is currently the least expensive Blu-Ray player on the market. Although there is no doubt that the $599.99 price tag drives potential buyers away, imo it would of been a better move if Sony canned the $599.99 60 GB PS3 instead of the $499.99 20 GB PS3.
I've always thought that if the PS3 had launched at the time as initially planned, and Sony had hit its initial sales target (of 6 million PS3s in 2006), HD DVD would be dead.

However, the PS3 did not launch on time, and Sony did not hit its initial sales target, nor did it hit its reduced sales target, partially because of the high price of the unit. Hence, Blu-ray movie disc sales have suffered greatly. Furthermore, Toshiba's HD DVD launch, albeit also late, hit the ground running and did so before the launch of the PS3, and hence we have this hi-def format war in full swing.

In any case, we discuss the the weekly disc sales here, but in truth the overall numbers are quite low. We are still quite early in the war, and a much bigger battle is going to happen in Q4 of this year. What exactly will happen we don't know, but it will definitely be interesting to watch.

Are we talking high-def media in this thread, or video games? I'll note that you didn't write anything in refutation to any of my (high-def format related) points, and leave it at that.

Chewbacca defense?

http://www.connect-dots.com/Poofs/chewbacca.jpg

I've always thought that if the PS3 had launched at the time as initially planned, and Sony had hit their initial sales target (of 6 million PS3s in 2006), HD DVD would be dead.

However, the PS3 did not launch on time, and Sony did not hit its initial sales target, nor did it hit its reduced sales target, partially because of the high price of the unit. Hence, Blu-ray sales have suffered greatly. Furthermore, Toshiba's HD DVD launch, albeit late, hit the ground running, and hence we have this war in full swing.

Yes from that perspective that makes perfect sense. However I never really expected the PS3 to sell 6 million units in '06 or have 4D graphics or whatever. After the famous "PS2 will have Toy Story quality graphics" line I haven't taken anything Sony said seriously

It's extremely difficult to completely separate the PS3-as-a-game-console from the PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player in terms of consumer acceptance. It has been argued that it's sort of a catch-22 situation and I believe that. The PS3-as-a-game-console is expensive because it's also a Blu-ray media system. The PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player is expensive because it's also a game console. Because of this, media sales both on the gaming side and the movie side suffers.

Furthermore, while it would be good for the BD group if each PS3 sale represented the equivalent of one standalone sale, it just doesn't work that way. So what we have is mediocre PS3-as-a-game-console sales numbers, and OK PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player sales numbers, but in an environment when future growth potential is with the standalones.

Toshiba realizes this (and realized this right from 2005 and earlier) and has slashed prices and gotten the Chinese on board. Sony grudgingly realizes this now too, and is now pushing their BDP300 at $500 to try to stimulate standalone sales, knowing full well that the $600 PS3-as-a-Blu-ray-player-and-a-game-console is losing steam.

Well, I'm not sure that Toshiba or Sony 'realize' much of anything with regard to each others' positions; meaning I think everything's been on the table for some time now. Remember that Chinese players don't in this case automatically translate into anything cheaper than the Japanese manufacturers themselves can offer at this point either - although they have nominally lower overheads as manufacturers, the fact is that in these high-def players, every part must still be sourced from first-tier suppliers; i.e. there's no cheap Chinese sources for the diodes, optical pick-up units, or even the silicon required for decoding. Personally that's why I think the first players we may see at $200 may have nothing to do with China whatsoever, but come from Toshiba themselves. But either way, you see the the landscape in part shaped by the expense of the componentry itself.

However, at $500, I just don't think they're trying hard enough, possibly partially because they don't want to alienate the rest of the CE companies in the BDA.

But do they have to try hard right now? $500 today, $400 or less by Christmas... I don't know, not that bad. HD DVD at $200 let's say... maybe less. But by the end of next year, likely both of them at the same price; perhaps even by this time '08. What ultimately will matter for our purposes in the context of this thread is how many movies will have sold in each format by the end of this year - although HD DVD enjoys better standalone sales, it's still a murky prospect to say that those sales will actually return the crown to them by years end. Which is to say that although future momentum of course lies with standalone sales, that momentum at *this* point is still low relative to the momentum PS3 has generated for its respective format.

Interestingly YTD stayed the same as last week. The reason why it is surprising is that it had just moved to 67/33 last week (from 68/32).

From what others have calculated, I see that top 6 BD had 78K of unit sales. With that number I would have expected 100K to have been just about breached - but it has possibly not happened - otherwise we would have heard about it.

Last week I had assumed 67.3 for YTD BD. If I use that, considering the max for this week on YTD for BD can be only 67.4444.... the max BD I can get to is about 85K. Thats too low. So, I'm going to tweek last week's 67.3 a bit - to 67.28 - and keep this week's numbers at 67.44 for BD. Given that I expect BD/HD weekly ratio to fall back - this means I expect the YTD to remain 67/33 next week. Otherwise I'll have to relook at these figures.

This gives a number for BD for this week at 94K. Pls remember these are rough (I do mean rough !) estimates.

http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/2826/bdhdweeklyuu4.png (http://imageshack.us)

What would you get if you instead used the 13.900 figure for Matrix that seems much more exact than the "less than" 47.000 for both Pirates? Grubert made a calculation for that which I used in post #6909. That figure give more likely totals for some of the older titles.

Btw, using my estimates for previous weeks I would say that Blu Ray outside of top 5 has been at between 15-20.000 the last couple of weeks. You could argue that with top titles selling more the lower ranks would sell less or more. There are arguments both ways. Either way it would seem possible but unlikely that Blu Ray reach 100.000. Especially if using the 13.900 figure.

No. He means like Planet Earth.
Yeah, he was obviously being selective on the one title that makes his point.
PE has been out longer that fact might be why it was chosen.

PE is an anomalie, caused most likely
1) the BD version had major issue (some sets had HD DVDs in them)
2) it is more widely available on HD DVD then BD (I am guessing there was a recall when they found out about #1)

on the other hand this was what I was replying to


This is a good week to gauge the sales of neutral releases.

Letters of Iwo Jima (Warner) was combo and $39.95 on HD DVD, and no-combo (obviously) and $34.95 on Blu-ray. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.21:1.

Flags of Our Fathers (DW/Par) had the same price and presentation on both formats. The Blu-ray edition outsold the HD DVD edition by 1.39:1.

Curious.



The difference is dual format owners wanting to save 5 bucks. When there are equally priced, identically full-featured titles, you can make a better comparison. Like with Planet Earth.



Grubert was comparing the exact same things (two titles, one a combo one not......) and the bozo reply was that you need to look at PE, the only title that was the same on both but sold more on HD DVD (and as explained befoire because of a screw-up and most likely not for any other reason)

but it is funny to see the propaganda brigade trying to spin everything

Right. I still think there is a good chance of it having crossed 100K and we will hear about it next week. But if we don't, then the chances of more than 100K are very low. Afterall they bragged about 100K shipped for CR and 100K sold in both formats together for Departed - so the first time weekly sales go above 100K is definitely worth a shout.

Nataraj, I think you are making the same mistake many have done in the past. CR, Departed are both from a single studio. This is not. Yes departed was on two formats but it was one studio crowing about one movie adding both together to say how it did in HDOM

I don't want people to believe me
OK, we don't

I don't want people to believe me
Kudos then. Mission accomplished.

What would you get if you instead used the 13.900 figure for Matrix that seems much more exact than the "less than" 47.000 for both Pirates? Grubert made a calculation for that which I used in post #6909. That figure give more likely totals for some of the older titles.

That gives some 74K for top 6 BD titles. Ofcourse I've not directly used 78K in my calculations (just weekly and YTD ratios) - but 74K makes the 94K estimate more likely than a 100K+ sales.

Fortunately for Sony it has made a difference as far as Blu Ray is concerned, because as a game console it tanked.


Everyone keeps saying how bad PS3 sales are. Yet...

The PS3 in it's first 30 weeks has outsold

a) the xbox during it's first 30 weeks
b) the xbox360 during it's first 30 weeks
c) the SNES ...
d) the N64 ...
e) the GameCube ...
f) the PlayStation ...
g) the PS2 ...
h) the Saturn ...
i) the Dreamcast ...
etc. etc. etc.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&align=1

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=SNES&reg2=All&cons3=N64&reg3=All&align=1

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=PS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&align=1

The only non-handheld system to do better is the Wii.

Yep, the PS3 sales sure do suck. :rolleyes:

Kudos then. Mission accomplished.

nope, you don't think :)

There are maybe 2 million PS3s and BD standalones in north america and around 200 - 250 thousand HD DVD players so why not extrapolate that according to install base? Why not do all sales since inception by install base also?
You can't tell individually but BD should be cleaning HD DVD's clock with over 2 million players and all that sacred BD content.

2.2X the weekly disc sales or whatever with 9X the players isn't very impressive. Remember, the real growth market for HD players is not $600 consoles. It's standalones of course.

Unless you both have some new information you'd like to share, the North American sales totals for the PS3 to date are 1.46 Million according to VG Chartz. So do you think 40,000 stand-alone players have been sold and you are just rounding to the nearest million? Either that or 500,000 Blu-ray stand-alone players have been sold according to you.

9 x 350,000 HD DVD players = over 3 million Blu-ray players, which sounds more like the world wide number. Now you aren't honestly trying to tell us that Europe and Japan should be buying all of their disks exclusively from North America right?

Sony seems to feel the need to at least partially respond to the pricing threats of the HD DVD side. Do you really believe they're doing it simply out of the goodness of their hearts?

Do you really believe Toshiba is lowering prices out of the goodness of their hearts?

More like "desparate last gasp". ;)

However, at $500, I just don't think they're trying hard enough

So in your opinion, Toshiba isn't trying hard enough with the HD-A20 which retails for the same MSRP and has similar features?

I've got first three movies righ :) can I have something ? ;)

Marek You can share the stale cookies I got for my SWAGs on the first couple weeks :D

The problem is that you can't. You definitely can't go to the other extreme and assume they're not buying movies at all. Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence. The only difference from parity in disc sales (which was accompanied by a massive :rolleyes: 4% Toshiba lead in standalone sales) from today's 2:1 - 4:1 Blu-ray lead in disc sales is the PS3. You keep quoting the 52/48 hardware sales figure from 2006 sales quoted in Feb 07. Besides the fact that I contend that was a misstatement of the NPD figures of revenues versus units, YMMV, that is ancient history,

You cannot seriously believe that the MSRP reduction of the HD A2 on April 1 to $399 and the $100 off deal has not seriously increased HD DVD standalone player sales volumes over the BD players.

Its certainly true that the PS3 driven movie sales volumes still are holding their own against those increasing HD DVD player owners buying HD DVD movies, but if the standalone sales for HD DVD continue to increase, sooner or later those players will sell movies.

More importantly, the larger installed base eventually will give HD DVD studios and retailers all sorts of options to drop prices and offer sales and discounts later on during the fourth quarter or into next year after the holiday sales season.

For example , combo prices and regular HD DVD movies are currently sold at a larger premium over DVD releases . But if a million plus HD DVD players are sold by the end of the year, Universal or Warner or Wal-Mart or Costco or Target could reduce the B&M street price overnight to drive sales.

They have not done that yet as there are not enough installed base to make it an event, but as HD DVD installed base increases, that option to instantly increase sales of HD DVD movies may be exercised.

The bottom line is the studios/retailers are probably not as disapointed in the sales figures as some here are as industry guys know the B&M street prices are a drag on mass sales. When those prices move down from their current experimental first adopter levels to serious mass sales levels, everyone knows volumes will increase.

Everything now is just preparation for the climatic battle of fourth quarter. HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are just preparing the battlespace by increasing the installed base of standalone players and by starting their mass market advertising campaign.

Blu-ray spokespeople were saying the format war was virtually going to be over by the end of March and that the POTC release would be thefinal killing blow to HD DVD. That obviously wasn't the case and HD DVD is stubbornly fighting back.

Kosty, I am, still waiting for the PS3 bump to go down. Funny how it is just wait a bit longer. Funny how stores had bonus movies with the players so it should have an immediate effect (if the player sales were any good) Funny how not even 24h after the PS3 came out you were here blowing your horn how the PS3 did not help BD sales. It did take a few weeks after the PS3 was launched to affect the Nielson sales figures, although it did show up faster on the Amazon tracking sites. I said at the time I was surprised it did not happen sooner. But BD sales have not steadily climbed higher throughout the year, as they have flattened.

HD DVD movie sales should also increase in a few weeks as they too will probably be a lagger to the hardware sales. :)

So in your opinion, Toshiba isn't trying hard enough with the HD-A20 which retails for the same MSRP and has similar features?
I figured someone would say that. My point is that Sony should be releasing a player at a lower price, but that doesn't have to be the BDP300.

Everyone keeps saying how bad PS3 sales are. Yet...

The PS3 in it's first 30 weeks has outsold


Ofcourse that is because you are using worldwide figures. See the NA and Japan figures. VGChartz doesn't show figures for PS2 in other regions / countries and I have to wonder how correct the worldwide figures are for PS2 ...

Interestingly in EU PS3 did well - they could sell a lot of consoles in the beginning - because of good availability since the sales in other regions were bad !

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/7082/ps3nafs0.png (http://imageshack.us)

http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/2450/ps3japanqq9.png (http://imageshack.us)

I've to seriously wonder about the motivation of people who don't acknowledge the obvious.

Any idea on what the total number of disc sales are? I look forward to the sales chart that showed estimated disc sales.

You keep quoting the 52/48 hardware sales figure from 2006 sales quoted in Feb 07.

And until we get other numbers, I'm going to keep doing iso because that's the only evidence we have. Neither your wishful thinking nor any other heresay, unforunately, does not qualify as evidence. This evidence was also contrary to the posting and general wisdom that held Toshiba was dominating standalone sales until we learned it just wasn't so.

I would certainly be interested in seeing what you predict for the relative standalone percentages, so we can examine them if/when numbers are revealed. Care to toss any WAGs? FWIW, I'd WAG we're probably around 55:45...


You cannot seriously believe that the MSRP reduction of the HD A2 on April 1 to $399 and the $100 off deal has not seriously increased HD DVD standalone player sales volumes over the BD players.


I keep hearing you and other HDDVD partisans exclaiming it will have an effect. Yet, we have all seen that HDDVD has seen anything BUT an increase in disc sales. You can continue to believe in an ethereal world where people buy players but NO content. Unless the influx of new players is the only thing keeping HDDVD sales from a plummet? THAT would be an interesting theory to explain why HDDVD disc sales remain flat...



Its certainly true that the PS3 driven movie sales volumes still are holding their own against those increasing HD DVD player owners buying HD DVD movies, but if the standalone sales for HD DVD continue to increase, sooner or later those players will sell movies.


And if/when HDDVD media sales remain flat (or decline), how long will it be until you concede?




For example , combo prices and regular HD DVD movies are currently sold at a larger premium over DVD releases . But if a million plus HD DVD players are sold by the end of the year, Universal or Warner or Wal-Mart or Costco or Target could reduce the B&M street price overnight to drive sales.


That doesn't look to change anytime in the future. Meanwhile BD's with a $5+ price bonus will continue to significantly outsell their DVD/HDDVD combo counterparts.


Everything now is just preparation for the climatic battle of fourth quarter. HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are just preparing the battlespace by increasing the installed base of standalone players and by starting their mass market advertising campaign.


We definitely agree on that. The 2nd gen BD players will have been around for about at least a few months, too and possibly a PS3 price cut, if not new SKU (the 80GB has already been shown on the offiical PS Korea site. Either the current 60GB or a 40GB in the skin of the former 20GB would seem the logical next step). If the rumors of the BDP-S300 being $499 are true, I'm willing to be we see street prices ~$250-350 by Christmas.



Blu-ray spokespeople were saying the format war was virtually going to be over by the end of March and that the POTC release would be thefinal killing blow to HD DVD. That obviously wasn't the case and HD DVD is stubbornly fighting back.

The dust hasn't even settled from the 70:30 sales week. Let's see what this week brings, too. Any guesses? When would you predict HDDVD will reach 50k sales a week in software, if ever?

I figured someone would say that. My point is that Sony should be releasing a player at a lower price, but that doesn't have to be the BDP300.

But that doesn't answer my question either.

And were you going to address this, or just hope people forgot?

There are maybe 2 million PS3s and BD standalones in north america and around 200 - 250 thousand HD DVD players so why not extrapolate that according to install base? Why not do all sales since inception by install base also?
You can't tell individually but BD should be cleaning HD DVD's clock with over 2 million players and all that sacred BD content.

2.2X the weekly disc sales or whatever with 9X the players isn't very impressive. Remember, the real growth market for HD players is not $600 consoles. It's standalones of course.

Unless you both have some new information you'd like to share, the North American sales totals for the PS3 to date are 1.46 Million according to VG Chartz. So do you think 40,000 stand-alone players have been sold and you are just rounding to the nearest million? Either that or 500,000 Blu-ray stand-alone players have been sold according to you.

9 x 350,000 HD DVD players = over 3 million Blu-ray players, which sounds more like the world wide number. Now you aren't honestly trying to tell us that Europe and Japan should be buying all of their disks exclusively from North America right?

And until we get other numbers, I'm going to keep doing iso because that's the only evidence we have. Neither your wishful thinking nor any other heresay, unforunately, does not qualify as evidence. This evidence was also contrary to the posting and general wisdom that held Toshiba was dominating standalone sales until we learned it just wasn't so.


Sorry but quoting numbers that are nearly six months old as is if the could still be accurate only spells out one thing; you like those numbers.

Any responsible person would just admit that info was sorrily outdated and also mention their age in the same breath.

Everyone keeps saying how bad PS3 sales are. Yet...

The PS3 in it's first 30 weeks has outsold

a) the xbox during it's first 30 weeks
b) the xbox360 during it's first 30 weeks
c) the SNES ...
d) the N64 ...
e) the GameCube ...
f) the PlayStation ...
g) the PS2 ...
h) the Saturn ...
i) the Dreamcast ...
etc. etc. etc.

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&align=1

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=SNES&reg2=All&cons3=N64&reg3=All&align=1

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS3&reg1=All&cons2=PS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&align=1

The only non-handheld system to do better is the Wii.

Yep, the PS3 sales sure do suck. :rolleyes:

Thanks for posting some interesting facts.

Sorry but quoting numbers that are nearly six months old as is if the could still be accurate only spells out one thing; you like those numbers.

Any responsible person would just admit that info was sorrily outdated and also mention their age in the same breath.

Yet you have no problem with a "responsible person" jumping to unfounded conjecture because they didn't like the old numbers? :rolleyes:

nataraj: I've to seriously wonder about the motivation of people who don't acknowledge the obvious.

What nataraj fails to mention is that the XBOX and XBOX 360 are actually on that chart for Japan as well, they just didn't sell enough to register at all. :D

What I see is that the PS3 actually outsold the PS1. Wonder what it will look like once some heavy hitting titles come out.

You can share the stale cookies I got for my SWAGs on the first couple weeks :D

I am not sure about it :) thanx anyway ;) hehe

soooo, I wonder what %%%% we will get next week hmm

Marek

Yet you have no problem with a "responsible person" jumping to unfounded conjecture because they didn't like the old numbers? :rolleyes:


If the sales data is either a half a year old or conjecture, it's about = in it's accuracy. Your doing no better than guessing yourself working off numbers that old.

What nataraj fails to mention is that the XBOX and XBOX 360 are actually on that chart for Japan as well, they just didn't sell enough to register at all. :D

What I see is that the PS3 actually outsold the PS1. Wonder what it will look like once some heavy hitting titles come out.

Not bad for a $600 console (worth every single penny by the way).

Even better at $500 like the one I have. Then I put a 160GB drive in for when they have more downloadable content like Xbox Live.

But that doesn't answer my question either.

And were you going to address this, or just hope people forgot?
What are you talking about? I think the BDA should drop the entry level price for Blu-ray players. Period. What's so hard to understand about that?

The same goes for the arguments the PS3 should cost more cuz it plays games too. This is not about feature set. This is about entry-level price. $500 is too much, and $600 is even worse.


Unless you both have some new information you'd like to share, the North American sales totals for the PS3 to date are 1.46 Million according to VG Chartz. So do you think 40,000 stand-alone players have been sold and you are just rounding to the nearest million? Either that or 500,000 Blu-ray stand-alone players have been sold according to you.

9 x 350,000 HD DVD players = over 3 million Blu-ray players, which sounds more like the world wide number. Now you aren't honestly trying to tell us that Europe and Japan should be buying all of their disks exclusively from North America right?
I think about 400000+ HD DVD players have been sold worldwide. So perhaps the ratio should be 8X. 8 x 410000 = 3.28 million.

As for North America, perhaps you're right. Probably a higher proportion of those HD DVD players worldwide are actually North American sales. So, if we went by 1.5 million Blu-ray players, and say 0.25 million HD DVD players, then that would be a 6:1 ratio.

Either way, that 2.2X sales ratio for discs still looks pretty bad, especially when the growth market is standalones, and HD DVD has the price advantage (and sales advantage) there, at least so far.

Everything now is just preparation for the climatic battle of fourth quarter. HD DVD PRG and Toshiba are just preparing the battlespace by increasing the installed base of standalone players and by starting their mass market advertising campaign.

Blu-ray spokespeople were saying the format war was virtually going to be over by the end of March and that the POTC release would be thefinal killing blow to HD DVD. That obviously wasn't the case and HD DVD is stubbornly fighting back.
Agreed that Toshiba and MSFT is stubbornly fighting back against the entire japanese CE infrastructure.

Their recent win is forcing the koreans to go dual-format.

Note however that spokespeople on either sides say certain things as part of a propaganda war, not necessarily that they believe it. The intended audience is the public who have tuned out of HDM because of the format war.

Since HDM adoption's growth is not following what either camp wanted, the BDA theory probably goes along the lines of "there is a group of potential buyers who do not wish to participate in a format war and until they can be cajoled into believing it is over, the adoption rate will stay tepid".

Now if enough people believe the fat lady has sung, the propaganda itself becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.

But then, ever since HD DVD's incredible well executed launch, BD's equally incredible mastering missteps, a lot of things have changed. The quality touted by HD DVD has been analyzed by various technologically savvy people in this forum to death and understood to be a mainly a mastering and title selection issue.

The 50GB scifi argument is getting less playtime these days for obvious reasons, everywhere you look, there's BD50 disks released recently. In fact, most of the recent releases are BD50.

The cheaper manufacturing argument is also suspect these days, since HD DVD chose to go with combo disks making their prices higher than the same title in BD. In general because Fox delayed their disks, average HD DVD titles now are priced significantly higher than average BD titles. This makes the cheaper manufacturing claim even harder to believe --- even though manufacturing costs are definitely higher for BD than HD DVD, the difference is marginal, and BDs today are cheaper to buy.

The maturity of technology argument has been won because today, there are about 8 manufacturers making and selling BD-RE drives for 8 months now. I've spent enough time with BD-RE/R to know the stuff works and my movies no longer are made onto EVOBs on DVD/R-DL, they're on BD-R 25/50.

HD DVD drives will likely be released this year, we have to see if it is the 51GB, the 30GB or the 15GB. If it is the 15GB, the writable media war would be over.

This leaves the only true technical advantage in HD DVD's arsenal as the more advanced interactive features : namely HDi and ease of authoring, as well as IME. BD-J's interactivity itself is more a question of too many manufacturers and difficulty in ensuring software conformance, something Toshiba's single source hardware does not have to worry about, but this is an understood problem that can be solved in software. IME however is a pip feature that warner apparentl takes seriously. Whether general movie public believe in IME is up to debate, but if it is, then Toshiba's choice to add a P4 to the HD-A1 for just decoding a SD VC1 pip on HD-A1 is a brilliant move even though it is a hack design and could have slowed down the boot and load times significantly.

If the IME and HDi argument does not take hold with the general public, the technical arguments will all fall in BD's technologically more advanced features.

Which would then leave price as the only battle left that is being fought over.

^^^ The writable computer media war is not the same thing as the movie disc war, even though those two wars do overlap.

Thanks for posting some interesting facts.

You mean the "fact" that VGChartz has no data for old consoles for non-japan/na ?

What nataraj fails to mention is that the XBOX and XBOX 360 are actually on that chart for Japan as well, they just didn't sell enough to register at all.

Peter, we all know how you hate everything and everyone who works for MS - not sure why you respond to my posts. Afterall I was just correcting the post by OP - not moving goalposts. :rolleyes:

Blu-ray spokespeople were saying the format war was virtually going to be over by the end of March and that the POTC release would be thefinal killing blow to HD DVD. That obviously wasn't the case and HD DVD is stubbornly fighting back.

Well, we were also told by HD DVD spokespeople that the PS3 wouldn't have an effect on the war... which it most definitely has. So I don't think it's right to say that the BDA has a monopoly on bold proclamations. ;)

On the side, on a previous page I mentioned that the Toshiba players would likely be the first to go under $200, rather than any Chinese effort, and it looks like at certain retailers around the country it's already happening. So we are presently *in* the transition zone to $199 and lower priced HD DVD players as we speak, the "critical pricing" barrier people have been talking about for months/years.

Let's see what effect it will have. Personally, I'm comfortable calling the Nielsen numbers for Blu-ray for at least the next several months.

Well, we were also told by HD DVD spokespeople that the PS3 wouldn't have an effect on the war... which it most definitely has. So I don't think it's right to say that the BDA has a monopoly on bold proclamations. ;)

On the side, on a previous page I mentioned that the Toshiba players would likely be the first to go under $200, rather than any Chinese effort, and it looks like at certain retailers around the country it's already happening. So we are presently *in* the transition zone to $199 and lower priced HD DVD players as we speak, the "critical pricing" barrier people have been talking about for months/years.

Let's see what effect it will have. Personally, I'm comfortable calling the Nielsen numbers for Blu-ray for at least the next several months.

People really start spending from back-to-school through the holidays, until then I think we will see a gradual narrowing of the gap between formats, but not a reversal.

I think about 400000+ HD DVD players have been sold worldwide. So perhaps the ratio should be 8X. 8 x 410000 = 3.28 million.

As for North America, perhaps you're right. Probably a higher proportion of those HD DVD players worldwide are actually North American sales. So, if we went by 1.5 million Blu-ray players, and say 0.25 million HD DVD players, then that would be a 6:1 ratio.

Either way, that 2.2X sales ratio for discs still looks pretty bad, especially when the growth market is standalones, and HD DVD has the price advantage (and sales advantage) there, at least so far.

.25 million HD DVD players? You really think it is still that low? Even not including the sale, Toshiba announced 100,000 dedicated players were sold a month ago, and I thought the 150,000 number for the add-on was from February/March. I mean I can see why you are trying to inflate the Blu-ray install base and deflate the HD DVD install base. It makes for a bigger "X:1 player base sells 2.2:1 disks" quote, but come on, and least use some realistic numbers here.

Ofcourse that is because you are using worldwide figures. See the NA and Japan figures. VGChartz doesn't show figures for PS2 in other regions / countries and I have to wonder how correct the worldwide figures are for PS2 ...

Interestingly in EU PS3 did well - they could sell a lot of consoles in the beginning - because of good availability since the sales in other regions were bad !

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/7082/ps3nafs0.png (http://imageshack.us)

http://img365.imageshack.us/img365/2450/ps3japanqq9.png (http://imageshack.us)

I've to seriously wonder about the motivation of people who don't acknowledge the obvious.

Interesting... sales in the US, the largest videogame market shows how the PS3 is lagging behind the PS2. In Japan the 2nd strongest market it clearly shows how the PS3 has been lagging, it looks like more PS2s were sold the first month of launch compared to PS3s first 6 months.

Interesting... sales in the US, the largest videogame market shows how the PS3 is lagging behind the PS2. In Japan the 2nd strongest market it clearly shows how the PS3 has been lagging, it looks like more PS2s were sold the first month of launch compared to PS3s first 6 months.

If you compared the number of units launched in the two launches, the reasons would be immediately obvious. ;)

.25 million HD DVD players? You really think it is still that low? Even not including the sale, Toshiba announced 100,000 dedicated players were sold a month ago, and I thought the 150,000 number for the add-on was from February/March. I mean I can see why you are trying to inflate the Blu-ray install base and deflate the HD DVD install base. It makes for a bigger "X:1 player base sells 2.2:1 disks" quote, but come on, and least use some realistic numbers here.
I don't think there has ever been a 150000 number from anyone. (If there has, then I missed it.) The only numbers I know are Toshiba's 100000 number cumulative to mid April, and Microsoft's 92000 number from 2006 during Xmas time.

I figure that Toshiba may have sold another 10000 players in the following month, and Microsoft sold another 50000 players in the following several months. Hence, 250000.

As for Blu-ray numbers, how is 1.5 million inflating them?

EDIT:

I did some quick googling and there is a 150000 number for the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on from Adams Research, but MS itself said it was 92000. So either the 150000 number was simply wrong, or else it was an estimate of worldwide sales.

If you compared the number of units launched in the two launches, the reasons would be immediately obvious. ;)

That must be why PS3s were beginning to stack up in Best Buy, Target, GameStop, Circuit City, and Fry's as earlier as December.

Are the giant pyramids of stacked up 360's also indicative of poor sales?

Are the giant pyramids of stacked up 360's also indicative of poor sales?
Actually, yes and no.

In April, the 360 sold 174000 units in the US, which isn't great. However, the PS3 sold all of 82000 units, which is less than half of the mediocre number for the 360. The Wii sold 360000 units, which is twice as much as the 360, and over four times as much as the PS3.

However, more importantly for this thread, we have no idea how many HD DVD add-ons for the 360 were sold.

Are the giant pyramids of stacked up 360's also indicative of poor sales?

The XBox 360 didn't stack up less than two months after its release.

Guys I know the PS3 sales figures are awesome to drag into any thread that mentions the console... but I mean what we're talking about here isn't the video game industry. We've already *got* a readily provided sales metric to obsess over in this thread - and that's media sales.

Guys I know the PS3 sales figures are awesome to drag into any thread that mentions the console... but I mean what we're talking about here isn't the video game industry. We've already *got* a readily provided sales metric to obsess over in this thread - and that's media sales.

Good idea.

BTW - initial post udpated. :)

Yet you have no problem with a "responsible person" jumping to unfounded conjecture because they didn't like the old numbers? :rolleyes: Yet you are clinging to ancient history........

Sorry but quoting numbers that are nearly six months old as is if the could still be accurate only spells out one thing; you like those numbers.

Any responsible person would just admit that info was sorrily outdated and also mention their age in the same breath. That was my point when I said it was ancient history. :)

I also said it was my contention and YMMV. Its funny that that report was never confirmed by any other article. ;)

The XBox 360 didn't stack up less than two months after its release.

Actually for many they stacked up quite earlier, mine didn't brick until its 13th month but I'm a light gamer.

^^^ The writable computer media war is not the same thing as the movie disc war, even though those two wars do overlap.

It is a computer media, but it also happens to hold my AVCHD and HDV and other old mpeg2 content quite well, and they play on my PS3 just like any other normal blu-ray movies I buy --- except these ones have footage not available anywhere else. :D

As for Blu-ray numbers, how is 1.5 million inflating them?


You said 1.5 million only after I corrected your previous claims of 9X which would have yielded over 2 million Blu-ray players if you think only 250,000 HD DVD players have been sold.

The XBox 360 didn't stack up less than two months after its release.

The XBOX 360 also launched in Europe and suffered more widely-publicized production problems and shortages than the PS3.

I don't have a problem saying the PS3 is in much lower demand than the 360, and that at launch that demand was also lower, but don't try to paint the 360 as having some kind of Wii-like demand.

You said 1.5 million only after I corrected your previous claims of 9X which would have yielded over 2 million Blu-ray players if you think only 250,000 HD DVD players have been sold.
This is my exact post, 1 page ago:
Originally Posted by me
I think about 400000+ HD DVD players have been sold worldwide. So perhaps the ratio should be 8X. 8 x 410000 = 3.28 million.

As for North America, perhaps you're right. Probably a higher proportion of those HD DVD players worldwide are actually North American sales. So, if we went by 1.5 million Blu-ray players, and say 0.25 million HD DVD players, then that would be a 6:1 ratio.

Either way, that 2.2X sales ratio for discs still looks pretty bad, especially when the growth market is standalones, and HD DVD has the price advantage (and sales advantage) there, at least so far.
Obviously I was incorrect on the 9X in North America, but fully acknowledged that, but you seem unwilling to accept that and continue to complain about it.

As for 9X worldwide, that may or may not be correct. Perhaps 8X is more appropriate... as I said 1 page ago.

The XBOX 360 also launched in Europe and suffered more widely-publicized production problems and shortages than the PS3.

I don't have a problem saying the PS3 is in much lower demand than the 360, and that at launch that demand was also lower, but don't try to paint the 360 as having some kind of Wii-like demand.

I never said the 360 had a Wii-like demand. I'm just speaking the truths, the PS3 demand dropped dramatically to an all time low of <100,000 consoles last month.

I never said the 360 had a Wii-like demand. I'm just speaking the truths, the PS3 demand dropped dramatically to an all time low of <100,000 consoles last month.

Thats true it had a bad month. However:

The XBox 360 didn't stack up less than two months after its release.

You were talking about the period of two months after launch.

Obviously I was incorrect on the 9X in North America, but fully acknowledged that, but you seem unwilling to accept that and continue to complain about it.


You asked why I said you increased it, and I told you.

Thanks for acknowledging it, but could you provide some source for your claim that 150,000 additional HD DVD players have been sold worldwide?

And I'm not complaining about anything, unless by complaining you mean "stopping an attempt to spread false numbers."

You asked why I said you increased it, and I told you.

Thanks for acknowledging it, but could you provide some source for your claim that 150,000 additional HD DVD players have been sold worldwide?
Like I already posted, that's what I think. One cannot provide a source, because there is none available, AFAIK. So, I will post this yet again:
I think about 400000+ HD DVD players have been sold worldwide. So perhaps the ratio should be 8X. 8 x 410000 = 3.28 million.

As for North America, perhaps you're right. Probably a higher proportion of those HD DVD players worldwide are actually North American sales. So, if we went by 1.5 million Blu-ray players, and say 0.25 million HD DVD players, then that would be a 6:1 ratio.
Nowhere do I say that MS and Toshiba's employees phoned me and told me these are the right numbers.

As I said before, no official source has ever mentioned any other numbers, AFAIK. For the record, I can only find one reference to your US 150000 number, but that was by an analyst who turned out to be incorrect.
I don't think there has ever been a 150000 number from anyone. (If there has, then I missed it.) The only numbers I know are Toshiba's 100000 number cumulative to mid April, and Microsoft's 92000 number from 2006 during Xmas time.

I figure that Toshiba may have sold another 10000 players in the following month, and Microsoft sold another 50000 players in the following several months. Hence, 250000.

As for Blu-ray numbers, how is 1.5 million inflating them?

EDIT:

I did some quick googling and there is a 150000 number for the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on from Adams Research, but MS itself said it was 92000. So either the 150000 number was simply wrong, or else it was an estimate of worldwide sales.

-----

And I'm not complaining about anything, unless by complaining you mean "stopping an attempt to spread false numbers."
Do you have another source for your 150000 number?
.25 million HD DVD players? You really think it is still that low? Even not including the sale, Toshiba announced 100,000 dedicated players were sold a month ago, and I thought the 150,000 number for the add-on was from February/March. I mean I can see why you are trying to inflate the Blu-ray install base and deflate the HD DVD install base. It makes for a bigger "X:1 player base sells 2.2:1 disks" quote, but come on, and least use some realistic numbers here.

Thats true it had a bad month. However:



You were talking about the period of two months after launch.


Yes and that is all true.

360 demand exceeded supply two months after launch. In the same time frame during the PS3 launch PS3s started stacking up, the XBox 360 did not.

Do you have another source for your 150000 number?

Actually no I don't since that source turned out to be incorrect. I admit that I had seen so many HD DVD supporters say it was 150,000 that I figured a source must be easily found, but my own research only turned up the firm 92,000 number from NPD.

My apologies.

Actually no I don't since that source turned out to be incorrect. I admit that I had seen so many HD DVD supporters say it was 150,000 that I figured a source must be easily found, but my own research only turned up the firm 92,000 number from NPD.My memory is that kjack reported that the NPD number was then 112k at the end of January (another 20k). Something like 150k sounds like it is probably in about the right range for XBOX360 add-ons in the region covered by NPD (probably US only, but might include Canada) to me. However, I don't recall seeing any official numbers for the add-on after January. 112k to 150k in 4 months would be a slowdown from the approximately 20k for January by NPD, so it could be higher than 150k also.

--Darin

360 demand exceeded supply two months after launch. In the same time frame during the PS3 launch PS3s started stacking up, the XBox 360 did not.

For North America, we do know the PS3 outsold the 360 two months after launch (687,700 to 607,441 total) and three months after launch (931k to 856k total). We don't know how much more supply would have helped those sales. When i got my 360 in April 2006, they were plentiful and I didn't take any special consideration.

With my PS3, I happened to be lucky and was in the right place at the right time (I don't line up and don't buy sight unseen EVER) and it wasn't until at least Febuary-March that I was seeing them in shelves on other sporadic visits (and they'd be gone on the next visit, back on the visit after, etc).

For North America, we do know the PS3 outsold the 360 two months after launch (687,700 to 607,441 total) and three months after launch (931k to 856k total). We don't know how much more supply would have helped those sales. When i got my 360 in April 2007, they were plentiful and I didn't take any special consideration.

With my PS3, I happened to be lucky and was in the right place at the right time (I don't line up and don't buy sight unseen EVER) and it wasn't until at least Febuary-March that I was seeing them in shelves on other sporadic visits (and they'd be gone on the next visit, back on the visit after, etc).

Correct, there were a few articles indicating that the PS3 sold more in its first four months than the 360 did in its first four months and that is with major competition, something the 360 didn't have. That is also without the benefit fo a world wide launch that the 360 had. All at a $200 higher price point.

Correct, there were a few articles indicating that the PS3 sold more in its first four months than the 360 did in its first four months and that is with major competition, something the 360 didn't have. That is also without the benefit fo a world wide launch that the 360 had. All at a $200 higher price point.

I agree. Given how different the products were in terms of price, features and competition it seems a bit foolish to compare the launches based solely on dates and units, but people continue to insist on it.

It did take a few weeks after the PS3 was launched to affect the Nielson sales figures, although it did show up faster on the Amazon tracking sites. I said at the time I was surprised it did not happen sooner. But BD sales have not steadily climbed higher throughout the year, as they have flattened.

HD DVD movie sales should also increase in a few weeks as they too will probably be a lagger to the hardware sales.

1) the difference is that then we were not getting numbers as often. Or doo you think Jan 1 that BD whent from 1/3 HD DVD to 2x?

2) BD is actually increasing, not by much but it is (and faster then HD DVD)

3) you need a lot of players for a small change. I know every HD DVD fanboy likes to assume every HD DVD owner buys a handful of movies every week, but it is not reality. But for every 10k players most weeks you won't get an increase anywhere near 1k, and for every successive 10k players the bump is lower (some people might buy a second player, some people are less sure that is why they waited.....)

For North America, we do know the PS3 outsold the 360 two months after launch (687,700 to 607,441 total) and three months after launch (931k to 856k total). We don't know how much more supply would have helped those sales. When i got my 360 in April 2006, they were plentiful and I didn't take any special consideration.

With my PS3, I happened to be lucky and was in the right place at the right time (I don't line up and don't buy sight unseen EVER) and it wasn't until at least Febuary-March that I was seeing them in shelves on other sporadic visits (and they'd be gone on the next visit, back on the visit after, etc).

Well the 80,000 lead the PS3 had has just been obliterated by its pathetic April NPD numbers. I just can't see why the PS3 lovers can't admit that there were stacks of PS3s less than two months after launch due to low demand? Why is that so difficult?

Well the 80,000 lead the PS3 had has just been obliterated by its pathetic April NPD numbers. I just can't see why the PS3 lovers can't admit that there were stacks of PS3s less than two months after launch due to low demand? Why is that so difficult?


Because it wasn't true everywhere, when people were saying there were so many boxes at stores here you still had to get vouchers when they came in to be in line to get them this was also in april.

It doesn't matter anyway. By Sonys own admission they had shipped around 5.5 million but only sold around 3.5 million. That's alot of consoles sitting around anyway you look at it. And will take a long time for that inventory to be depleted at the current rate.

Store stock often has little relation to unit sales numbers.

My local Wal-Mart doesn't have a huge number of HD DVD titles, but according to the cashier there they don't sell a huge amount either.

Supply can be varied as needed once manufacturing is up and running properly.

It will be interesting to see what standalone HD DVD sales are in May/June with the Toshiba deals, but a format war does not 2 months of sales win. One also wonders if there will be a significant uptick in HD DVD disc sales in the coming weeks, but I'm definitely not predicting any miracles.

Blu-ray will still maintain a healthy lead over the coming months, but it is possible that lead in terms of proportional disc sales may narrow. Then when Q4 rolls around, all bets are off, for both sides. Both HD DVD and Blu-ray will be going into high gear then.

In fact, I'm predicting we won't see a clear winner in 2007, or even 2008.

Store stock often has little relation to unit sales numbers.

My local Wal-Mart doesn't have a huge number of HD DVD titles, but according to the cashier there they don't sell a huge amount either.

Supply can be varied as needed once manufacturing is up and running properly.

It will be interesting to see what standalone HD DVD sales are in May/June with the Toshiba deals, but a format war does not 2 months of sales win. One also wonders if there will be a significant uptick in HD DVD disc sales in the coming weeks, but I'm definitely not predicting any miracles.

Blu-ray will still maintain a healthy lead over the coming months, but it is possible that lead in terms of proportional disc sales may narrow. Then when Q4 rolls around, all bets are off, for both sides. Both HD DVD and Blu-ray will be going into high gear then.

In fact, I'm predicting we won't see a clear winner in 2007, or even 2008.

Problem for Toshiba is that there is no more powder in the keg.

Well the 80,000 lead the PS3 had has just been obliterated by its pathetic April NPD numbers. I just can't see why the PS3 lovers can't admit that there were stacks of PS3s less than two months after launch due to low demand? Why is that so difficult?

There were stacks of PS3s at select retail locations. Are you happy now? It wasn't true for the whole country, as much as you and the internet would like everyone to believe. Amazon was sold out for months as well.

Blu-ray will still maintain a healthy lead over the coming months, but it is possible that lead in terms of proportional disc sales may narrow. Then when Q4 rolls around, all bets are off, for both sides. Both HD DVD and Blu-ray will be going into high gear then.


What will HD DVD be going into high gear with? I'm guessing an even lower price on a 1080i player, but what else?

Agreed that Toshiba and MSFT is stubbornly fighting back against the entire japanese CE infrastructure.

Their recent win is forcing the koreans to go dual-format.

I think you're mistaken. As I mentioned in another thread, Samsung has a history of backing niche products that never really catch on.

Examples: Direct RDRAM, SlimFlat CRTs, cellular handsets, DAPs. Samsung will probably build dual format players for one or two product cycles then discontinue them, just like many of the other niche products it manufactured.

LG, since its the smaller chaebol, is just follwing samsungs lead.

In between bickering over how many PS3's are sitting at your local electronics story, would it be possible to talk about something as silly as software sales in this thread???

Thank you, oh thank you Wet1.

I propose the following topic for discussion (inspired by a thread on highdefdigest):

Can HD-DVD take any weeks in June?

Looking at the exclusives for the month, it could happen:


06/05
Blood Diamond
Bruce Springsteen &Seeger
Cruel Intentions
Few Good Men, A
Hellboy
Jerry Maguire
Messengers, The
Rescue Me 3rd Season
Seven Years in Tibet
Black Christmas
HD Window Hawaii
HD Window Great SW
Serenity Southern Seas
Visions of the Sea


06/12
Blood and Chocolate
Daddy's Little Girls
Ghost Rider Extended Cut
Primeval
Born on the 4th of July
Breach
Bruce Almighty
Daylight
Harsh Times
Liar Liar
M Pythons Meaning of Life
Sneakers

06/19
Bridge to Terabithia

06/26
American Me
Being John Malkovich
Big Lebowski, The
Bulletproof
Dead Silence
Deep Purple Montreux
Freedom Vol. 1
Mallrats
Meet Joe Black
Mystery Men
Santana Hymns for Peace
Watcher, The
Yes Live at Montreux

What will HD DVD be going into high gear with? I'm guessing an even lower price on a 1080i player, but what else?

Don't most people have 1080i displays (or 720p?)

I think you're mistaken. As I mentioned in another thread, Samsung has a history of backing niche products that never really catch on.

Examples: Direct RDRAM, SlimFlat CRTs, cellular handsets, DAPs. Samsung will probably build dual format players for one or two product cycles then discontinue them, just like many of the other niche products it manufactured.

LG, since its the smaller chaebol, is just follwing samsungs lead.

Blu-ray?

The first 3 weeks should be comfortbale Blu-ray wins.

On the face of it June 26th looks strong for HD DVD but on closer investigation of the HD DVD exclusives we see:

3 music titles:

Deep Purple: Live at Montreux 2006 (Rhino)
Santana: Hymns for Peace - Live at Montreux 2004 (Rhino)
Yes: Live at Montreux (Rhino)

1 Anime title:

Freedom: Vol. 1 (Bandai Visual)

2 re-issued titles (already on HD DVD)

Unleashed
Army of Darkness

Not much to set sales alight so far.

Next we have a bunch of oldish catalogue titles:

Meet Joe Black (Universal)
Mystery Men (Universal)
The Watcher (Universal)
Being John Malkovich (Universal)
Bulletproof (Universal)
The Big Lebowski (Universal)
American Me (Universal)
Mallrats (Universal)

Of these not one made over $50 million at the US box office (best was 'Meet Joe Black' with $44 million) and the most recent was released in 2000. It would take a real HD DVD loyalist to buy all of these. I don't see a lot of 'must buys' or demo material in there.

We know from experience that the above titles will see unit sales of anything from a few hundred to a few thousand. Collectively they could achieve sales of 8 - 10,000 but not much more.

Which leaves us with the only day/date premiere title exclusive to HD DVD:

Dead Silence (box office: $16.5 million)

Maybe 8,000 copies?

Add in Planet Earth, Batman Begins etc. and I think this week will see sales around the 25 - 30,000 mark for HD DVD PLUS whatever sales come in from the 2 neutrals, 'Black Snake Moan' & 'Hustle & Flow' - I don't see either of those doing great numbers either.

For Blu-ray to beat HD DVD it has to rely on the strength of recent releases - which will also include 'Ghost Rider' and 'Bridge to Terabithia'. Can Blu-ray do it?

I think there's a strong probability it will. And if it does it blows the release volume argument out of the water. It will show that what really matters in order to get sales moving are big box office titles that premiere day & date with the DVD counterpart. A load of old catalogue titles can help to support the big hitters but you need the big hitters in the first place.

It's what most of us believe anyway and it's backed up by the figures week in, week out.

Thank you, oh thank you Wet1.

I propose the following topic for discussion (inspired by a thread on highdefdigest):

Can HD-DVD take any weeks in June?

Looking at the exclusives for the month, it could happen:


06/05
Blood Diamond
Bruce Springsteen &Seeger
Cruel Intentions
Few Good Men, A
Hellboy
Jerry Maguire
Messengers, The
Rescue Me 3rd Season
Seven Years in Tibet

Looks like that list is out-of-date. I believe Cruel Intentions and Seven Years are now scheduled for the next week (6/12). And Few Good Men and Jerry Maguire are postponed with no new date.

What will HD DVD be going into high gear with? I'm guessing an even lower price on a 1080i player, but what else?

You'd have to think Warner will be pulling out all stops to give HD DVD an advantage on the software side such as releasing some big titles on HD DVD only.

Thank you, oh thank you Wet1.

I propose the following topic for discussion (inspired by a thread on highdefdigest):

Can HD-DVD take any weeks in June?

Looking at the exclusives for the month, it could happen:


06/05
Blood Diamond
Bruce Springsteen &Seeger
Cruel Intentions
Few Good Men, A
Hellboy
Jerry Maguire
Messengers, The
Rescue Me 3rd Season
Seven Years in Tibet
Black Christmas
HD Window Hawaii
HD Window Great SW
Serenity Southern Seas
Visions of the Sea


06/12
Blood and Chocolate
Daddy's Little Girls
Ghost Rider Extended Cut
Primeval
Born on the 4th of July
Breach
Bruce Almighty
Daylight
Harsh Times
Liar Liar
M Pythons Meaning of Life
Sneakers

06/19
Bridge to Terabithia

06/26
American Me
Being John Malkovich
Big Lebowski, The
Bulletproof
Dead Silence
Deep Purple Montreux
Freedom Vol. 1
Mallrats
Meet Joe Black
Mystery Men
Santana Hymns for Peace
Watcher, The
Yes Live at Montreux
Good question. The week of 6/5 is clearly Blu. The week of 6/12 might we a strong week for the red team, but I suspect GR being released on BR will be enough to keep it yet another Blu week. 6/19 is clearly weak for both sides, but BR should easily take this week. 6/26, now this should be interesting! While I don't have much interest in many of the titles being released, I wouldn't be surprised if HD-DVD doesn't takes this week.

On a related note... the Blu camp really needs to be concerned about not only getting hardware prices inline with their competitor, but they also need to be very concerned with their release schedule going forward. Fox being absent, and now Disney to a lesser extent, certainly isn't helping the BDA's cause to win this war. Will they let their strong showing in 2007 slip away??? Is 6/26 the week the tide changes and if so for how long?

Looks like that list is out-of-date. I believe Cruel Intentions and Seven Years are now scheduled for the next week (6/12). And Few Good Men and Jerry Maguire are postponed with no new date.


Oops.

BTW that proves nobody uses the release calendar.

There's only two known/announced blu titles for june-26, and they are both neutral (both formats)
June 26, 2007
Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

If there is a week where the red line might cross the blu line, that's the week. Let's see what happens.

Thats true it had a bad month.

Actually it's had a bad year. PS3 sales dropped 50% in January, 50% in February, 19% in March, and 22% in April. This despite widespread availability. Obviously I can't speak to the entire nation, but I haven't been to an electronics, toy or department store or warehouse club in the Chicagoland area since the 2nd week of January that didn't have PS3s in stock. In that same time, I've seen Wiis twice, and once was a bundle.

I expect May's NPD numbers will show another ~20% drop in sales.

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 6/02/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Planet Earth: The Complete series (BBC, 99.98)
2 Ultimate Matrix Collection (War,119.99)
3 Letters From Iwo Jima (War 39.99)
4 Complete Matrix Trilogy (War, 89.99)
5 The Frighteners (Uni 29.98)
6 The Road Warrior (War, 28.98)
7 40 Year Old Virgin (Uni, 29.98)
8 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
9 Lost In Translation (Uni, 29.98)
10 Fear And loathing In Las vegas (UNI, $29.98)

Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 6/02/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Dis, $34.99)
2 Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl (Dis, $34.99)
3 Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (BBC, $99.98)
4 Apocalypto (Dis, $34.99)
5 Letters From Iwo Jima (WB, $34.98)
6 Casino Royale (Sony, $38.96)
7 Curse Of the Golden Flower (Sny, $28.95)
8 The Deaprted (War, $34.99)
9 The Fountain (War, $34.99)
10 Flags Of Our Father (War, $39.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Actually it's had a bad year. PS3 sales dropped 50% in January, 50% in February, 19% in March, and 22% in April. This despite widespread availability. Obviously I can't speak to the entire nation, but I haven't been to an electronics, toy or department store or warehouse club in the Chicagoland area since the 2nd week of January that didn't have PS3s in stock. In that same time, I've seen Wiis twice, and once was a bundle.

I expect May's NPD numbers will show another ~20% drop in sales.




Please stick to the topic of software sales within this thread.

Thank you! :)

For Blu-ray to beat HD DVD it has to rely on the strength of recent releases - which will also include 'Ghost Rider' and 'Bridge to Terabithia'. Can Blu-ray do it?

I think there's a strong probability it will. And if it does it blows the release volume argument out of the water. It will show that what really matters in order to get sales moving are big box office titles that premiere day & date with the DVD counterpart. A load of old catalogue titles can help to support the big hitters but you need the big hitters in the first place.

It's what most of us believe anyway and it's backed up by the figures week in, week out.

I think this is a great month to see which argument holds more water. Do more blockbuster day-and-date releases mean victory, or do lots of catalog titles mean victory. Time will tell. Originally I thought HD DVD would have a lock on beating Blu-ray 6/26, but after todays dismal performance (even on Amazon) I'm not so sure. We'll know in a week how bad it was for todays releases, but I'm betting on extremely low volumes.

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 6/02/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Planet Earth: The Complete series (BBC, 99.98)
2 Ultimate Matrix Collection (War,119.99)
3 Letters From Iwo Jima (War 39.99)
4 Complete Matrix Trilogy (War, 89.99)
5 The Frighteners (Uni 29.98)
6 The Road Warrior (War, 28.98)
7 40 Year Old Virgin (Uni, 29.98)
8 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
9 Lost In Translation (Uni, 29.98)
10 Fear And loathing In Las vegas (UNI, $29.98)

Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 6/02/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Dis, $34.99)
2 Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl (Dis, $34.99)
3 Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (BBC, $99.98)
4 Apocalypto (Dis, $34.99)
5 Letters From Iwo Jima (WB, $34.98)
6 Casino Royale (Sony, $38.96)
7 Curse Of the Golden Flower (Sny, $28.95)
8 The Deaprted (War, $34.99)
9 The Fountain (War, $34.99)
10 Flags Of Our Father (War, $39.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Wow, Planet Earth and Batman Begins continue to impress me. Both have incredible staying power. Planet Earth went back up to #4 on Amazon yesterday. Batman Begins has been out for over 8 months. The Blu planet Earth is also doing very well, beating every recently released BR except Pirates.

Hey, Rentrak is early this week. :)

Matrix already reach market saturation? Might be another lopsided week.

I think Batman Begins continues to do well since there is a steady stream of hardware sales for HD DVD.

Matrix already reach market saturation? Might be another lopsided week.
It does look like it will be a good week for BD. But I agree with others that later in June is the best chance for an HD-DVD resurgence if it's going to happen. If HD-DVD doesn't do well then, then I'm not sure they will ever close the gap. With fall/winter approaching I expect BD sales to really start to take off.

Is there a thread that has # of discs sold (instead of ratios) per title or format? I find the ratios to be overrated in terms of usefullness.

Is there a thread that has # of discs sold (instead of ratios) per title or format? I find the ratios to be overrated in terms of usefullness.

We did the best we could in terms of estimations for a while, but then the ratios became much less accurate so that practice was stopped. There are no official numbers except for those released by the companies that pay for the NPD data, and those are not released often.

Why do you say the ratios aren't very useful?

Top HD DVD Titles For Week Ended 6/02/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Planet Earth: The Complete series (BBC, 99.98)
2 Ultimate Matrix Collection (War,119.99)
3 Letters From Iwo Jima (War 39.99)
4 Complete Matrix Trilogy (War, 89.99)
5 The Frighteners (Uni 29.98)
6 The Road Warrior (War, 28.98)
7 40 Year Old Virgin (Uni, 29.98)
8 Batman Begins (WB, $28.99)
9 Lost In Translation (Uni, 29.98)
10 Fear And loathing In Las vegas (UNI, $29.98)

Top Blu-Ray Titles For Week Ended 6/02/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Dis, $34.99)
2 Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl (Dis, $34.99)
3 Planet Earth: The Complete Collection (BBC, $99.98)
4 Apocalypto (Dis, $34.99)
5 Letters From Iwo Jima (WB, $34.98)
6 Casino Royale (Sony, $38.96)
7 Curse Of the Golden Flower (Sny, $28.95)
8 The Deaprted (War, $34.99)
9 The Fountain (War, $34.99)
10 Flags Of Our Father (War, $39.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Last week Rentrak was more off compared to Nielsen than earlier weeks. Worth to keep in mind.

Most titles in their second week are lucky to hit 50% of first week.

Night at the Museum only got to about 25%
Dreamgirl about 40-45%
Deja Vu about 30%

The only exception that we know of is Planet Earth which seems to have pretty much stayed at the same numbers for five weeks.

Based on that it's not surprising that Matrix would go under 4.000 copies and be passed by Planet Earth.

For HD based on previous weeks and how they are holding up on Amazon I would put

1 Planet Earth 4.000-4.500
8 Batman 800

For Blu Ray
3 Planet Earth 2.500-3.000
6 Casino Royale 2.000-2.500
8 The Departed 800

Looks like it all depends on how well the Pirates movies continue to sell. I would be surprised if both of them got over 10.000 copies. Maybe neither. Of course that would still be enough to give a similar lead to last week.

EDIT: Forgot that based on the above it's a gigantic fall for Apocalypto. Last week it was something like 17.000 copies. Now it's below Planet Earth BD which puts it at under 3.000

Yes and that is all true.

360 demand exceeded supply two months after launch. In the same time frame during the PS3 launch PS3s started stacking up, the XBox 360 did not.

It wasn't demand. There were no 360s available because microsoft couldn't get their manufacturing together. And they had a known failure mode (red light of death). They could barely ship any consoles cause their manufacturing wasn't in order.

The demand was average for a console in historical perspective.

It wasn't demand. There were no 360s available because microsoft couldn't get their manufacturing together. And they had a known failure mode (red light of death). They could barely ship any consoles cause their manufacturing wasn't in order.

The demand was average for a console in historical perspective.


Ok so there were no consoles on the shelves yet there was no demand for it. That doesn't work out. If there weren't any consoles on shelves it doesn't there still was demand and no one can ever know how much demand

There's only two known/announced blu titles for june-26, and they are both neutral (both formats)
June 26, 2007
Black Snake Moan (Paramount)
Hustle & Flow (Paramount)

If there is a week where the red line might cross the blu line, that's the week. Let's see what happens.

That will be a good comparison since the HD version are not combos and will be the same price.

We did the best we could in terms of estimations for a while, but then the ratios became much less accurate so that practice was stopped.

Not exactly. I calculate and put the graph here every week. Just not the actual numbers - since they are rough estimates.

Thats true it had a bad month.Actually it's had a bad year. PS3 sales dropped 50% in January, 50% in February, 19% in March, and 22% in April. This despite widespread availability. Obviously I can't speak to the entire nation, but I haven't been to an electronics, toy or department store or warehouse club in the Chicagoland area since the 2nd week of January that didn't have PS3s in stock. In that same time, I've seen Wiis twice, and once was a bundle.

I expect May's NPD numbers will show another ~20% drop in sales.

My comments about this is in the general thread.

Not exactly. I calculate and put the graph here every week. Just not the actual numbers - since they are rough estimates.

I was referring to Icemage's spreadsheet.

Why do you say the ratios aren't very useful?

Because the volumes of discs sold is so low. I don't have any idea of whether demand is growing or shrinking or staying flat.

Because the volumes of discs sold is so low. I don't have any idea of whether demand is growing or shrinking or staying flat.

The demand seems to be flat - with releases being the variable.

What will HD DVD be going into high gear with? I'm guessing an even lower price on a 1080i player, but what else?
Of course, as that was the plan all along. (They will also continue with reasonable numbers of HD DVD releases too obviously.)

On the HD DVD side, it's 1080i players that drive sales, which isn't surprising, considering the vast majority of HDTVs don't support 1080p anyway.

Oops.

BTW that proves nobody uses the release calendar.

Aww man. I did. So is the release calendar still good (for the most part)?

Aww man. I did. So is the release calendar still good (for the most part)?

Yes it is. I update it regularly (ten times last month!).

Quote:
Originally Posted by h0mi
Because the volumes of discs sold is so low. I don't have any idea of whether demand is growing or shrinking or staying flat.


The demand seems to be flat - with releases being the variable.

If the volumes are so low, and the demand is flat, then the ratios seem kind of pointless, or at least completely out of context.
J

The ratios are the only thing we've got that can give us as close to a snapshot of which format's winning... if you can call having the slightly larger share of 1% of home video sales winning. If anything the low volumes of titles moved indicate to us that either of the formats could go away/die tomorrow and not be missed (most people think HD-DVD but BD hasn't also proved itself as formidable a dominant force as originally advertised). This is what makes a rumor like Walmart siding with HD-DVD via cheap Chinese players so believable and interesting. HD-DVD is losing to BD in movie sales but the volume of inventory moving is so miniscule that Walmart alone could actually influence the format war by siding with either format. Remember: 1% of home video sales is all we're talking about within these ratios, weekly battles and attach rates. All it takes is a Walmart-type white knight for HD-DVD or a massive price cut from Sony of its BD players (PS3 for $450, BD player for $350) to let this tight race explode wide open on either side's favor.

I don't think there has ever been a 150000 number from anyone. (If there has, then I missed it.) The only numbers I know are Toshiba's 100000 number cumulative to mid April, and Microsoft's 92000 number from 2006 during Xmas time.

I figure that Toshiba may have sold another 10000 players in the following month, and Microsoft sold another 50000 players in the following several months. Hence, 250000.
Andy Pennel reports (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10708640&&#post10708640) that there is a VideoBusiness article from 2 days ago that lists NPD Funworld's numbers of 143000 Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on drives sold by the end of April, and that 143000 "outsold set-top players".

That plus the 100000 from Toshiba plus a few thousand extra for both in May (plus a bit more for Toshiba at the end of April) likely means something like 250000-265000, depending how many were sold because of that Toshiba $100 rebate deal (which only started May 20).

Yes it is. I update it regularly (ten times last month!).

and those of us who regularly consult it hugely appreciate your efforts!

The ratios are the only thing we've got that can give us as close to a snapshot of which format's winning... if you can call having the slightly larger share of 1% of home video sales winning. If anything the low volumes of titles moved indicate to us that either of the formats could go away/die tomorrow and not be missed (most people think HD-DVD but BD hasn't also proved itself as formidable a dominant force as originally advertised).

That's the point. The focus is on "winning" (whatever that means), when we don't even know if the formats are thriving. I don't really care if disc A sold 83% of disc B, when both numbers are only in the 1000s. Is that really winning? If so, does it really matter? It looks more like some are just trying to find relevance where there is none.
But, that's just my opinion.
J

That's the point. The focus is on "winning" (whatever that means), when we don't even know if the formats are thriving. I don't really care if disc A sold 83% of disc B, when both numbers are only in the 1000s. Is that really winning? If so, does it really matter? It looks more like some are just trying to find relevance where there is none.
But, that's just my opinion.
J
You've got to start somewhere.

I think if some titles reach the 100000+ sold mark (say by then end of 2007), then I think we're doing OK.

Actually, the Departed is already there (on both formats combined).

Andy Pennel reports (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10708640&&#post10708640) that there is a VideoBusiness article from 2 days ago that lists NPD Funworld's numbers of 143000 Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on drives sold by the end of April, and that 143000 "outsold set-top players".


Thanks. So sales would be
November: 42,000
December: 50,000
Jan-Apr: about 51,000

You've got to start somewhere.

I think if some titles reach the 100000+ sold mark (say by then end of 2007), then I think we're doing OK.

Actually, the Departed is already there (on both formats combined).

I don't think this means anything at all. Afterall Warner had projected some 500M IIRC in movie sales. We are probably at about 10% of that ...

I don't see how the following can be seen as adequate.

DVD sells about 100,000,000 a month.
HDM sells about 300,000 a month.

More importantly there is hardly any growth. You expect an young format like this to be growing at a healthy rate at this point in the life cycle.

Microsoft has got to start selling the add-on for $150 MSRP ASAP. Maybe it's just waiting for Sony to drop the PS3 price to counter with a price drop across the board (add-on, Core and Premium; Elite will stay around $450 for a while) but at $199 the add-on doesn't compare favorably with the $250 HD-A2 bargains that can be found on amazon.com.

HMM's Erik Gruenwedel reflected that on his recent article,
Departed Promise of High-Definition Discs (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom060307/index.php?startpage=12). He asked, "Since when did we settle for championing an individual title's total units sales exceeding 100K?"

And criticized the studios for continuing "to churn out the high-def hype regardless that the format war is stifling both adoption and sales among the general consumer - the lifeblood of packaged media."

Microsoft has got to start selling the add-on for $150 MSRP ASAP. Maybe it's just waiting for Sony to drop the PS3 price to counter with a price drop across the board (add-on, Core and Premium; Elite will stay around $450 for a while) but at $199 the add-on doesn't compare favorably with the $250 HD-A2 bargains that can be found on amazon.com.

I agree. Infact I'd say the add-on and even internal drives for the PC should be sold at $99 .... don't know whether the procurement costs allow for that, though.

Ofcourse the other big news not discussed here much is that all Tosh laptops will start having HD DVD drives. That shows the prices have fallen enough - and perhaps $99 drives and add-on can be made.

You've got to start somewhere.

I think if some titles reach the 100000+ sold mark (say by then end of 2007), then I think we're doing OK.

Actually, the Departed is already there (on both formats combined).

I'm sorry, but I don't really consider that OK, I consider that pretty pathetic really.
100,000 when the formats have been around for over a year? I'm underwhelmed. I'm sorry, but after seeing the sales figures for Pirates and Matrix, this whole weekly ratio bit is starting to take on a surreal air.

J

Ofcourse the other big news not discussed here much is that all Tosh laptops will start having HD DVD drives. That shows the prices have fallen enough - and perhaps $99 drives and add-on can be made.

The fact that Toshiba has decided to bundle HD DVD drives in its laptops does not really show that the prices have fallen. (trojan horse - customers being forced to pay extra for unused driver - we've heard it all now).

That's the point. The focus is on "winning" (whatever that means), when we don't even know if the formats are thriving. I don't really care if disc A sold 83% of disc B, when both numbers are only in the 1000s. Is that really winning? If so, does it really matter? It looks more like some are just trying to find relevance where there is none.
But, that's just my opinion.
J

Agreed. I'm not sure how ratios can be properly gauged but actual sales counts cannot... if you have numbers you don't know (# of BD and # of HDDVD sold) I'm not sure you can honestly say you know the ratio between the 2 figures.

You've got to start somewhere.

I think if some titles reach the 100000+ sold mark (say by then end of 2007), then I think we're doing OK.

Actually, the Departed is already there (on both formats combined).

I can't find the post but there are several UMD titles that hit 100k sold in 2005.

8 million UMD movies were sold through early 2006. (I can't find any #s through 2007 though).

Microsoft has got to start selling the add-on for $150 MSRP ASAP. Maybe it's just waiting for Sony to drop the PS3 price to counter with a price drop across the board (add-on, Core and Premium; Elite will stay around $450 for a while) but at $199 the add-on doesn't compare favorably with the $250 HD-A2 bargains that can be found on amazon.com.

Microsoft is most likely waiting for Sony to drop the price of the PS3. With the 60 GB model selling @ $241 in the red and the 360 Premium selling at $75 in the black. Obviously these numbers (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061120132150.html) are over half a year old. So both of these numbers have probably changed towards a more favorable number for both companies.

However it clear shows that Microsoft is in the best position. If Sony cuts the PS3 by $100 then it will be less of a burden for Microsoft to cut the price of the 360 by $100. Unfortunately there are no numbers out there for the cost of the 360 HD DVD Player. According to that link above the PS3 optical drive costs $125, if that is what the 360 HD DVD add-on costs plus ~$25 for the power supply then you got $150 for the cost of the 360 HD DVD player. But since HD DVD players have always been cheaper than Blu-Ray players it is possible that the 360 HD DVD player costs less than the optical drive in the PS3.

Either way... Microsoft is in a good position, Sony is in a less good position. If they drop the price of the PS3 they know Microsoft will be right behind them, and a $300 XBox 360 premium will be difficult to compete with. Since the game market includes Nintendo I wonder what will happen if the PS3 v. 360 price war makes Nintendo drop the price of the Wii!

Enough supply + $200 Wii = No more 360 or PS3

Agreed. I'm not sure how ratios can be properly gauged but actual sales counts cannot... if you have numbers you don't know (# of BD and # of HDDVD sold) I'm not sure you can honestly say you know the ratio between the 2 figures.

We are given a list of the best sellers for the week, by the people who keep track. Not as units sold, but as a ratio in proportion of the top seller ie. #1=100% #2 sold 86% of #1, #3 sold 52% of #1, etc. You can get ratios from this, but you don't know if #1 sold 1 million copies, or 100. They also aren't always accurate either. We are given a snapshot, but no point of reference. Plotting points on a curve without a scale or even a label is relatively useless.
J

Microsoft is most likely waiting for Sony to drop the price of the PS3. With the 60 GB model selling @ $241 in the red and the 360 Premium selling at $75 in the black. Obviously these numbers (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061120132150.html) are over half a year old. So both of these numbers have probably changed towards a more favorable number for both companies.

However it clear shows that Microsoft is in the best position. If Sony cuts the PS3 by $100 then it will be less of a burden for Microsoft to cut the price of the 360 by $100. Unfortunately there are no numbers out there for the cost of the 360 HD DVD Player. According to that link above the PS3 optical drive costs $125, if that is what the 360 HD DVD add-on costs plus ~$25 for the power supply then you got $150 for the cost of the 360 HD DVD player. But since HD DVD players have always been cheaper than Blu-Ray players it is possible that the 360 HD DVD player costs less than the optical drive in the PS3.

Either way... Microsoft is in a good position, Sony is in a less good position. If they drop the price of the PS3 they know Microsoft will be right behind them, and a $300 XBox 360 premium will be difficult to compete with. Since the game market includes Nintendo I wonder what will happen if the PS3 v. 360 price war makes Nintendo drop the price of the Wii!

Enough supply + $200 Wii = No more 360 or PS3

I think Microsoft should drop the price of the add on so that Elite+add on is the same or less than the PS3.

I also think the price of the Wii is fine, now production on the other hand...

FWIW I have a Wii and a PS3, and we spend more time watching movies (both dvd and bd) on the PS3 than playing games on either. Although my sister-in-law's love of Super Paper Mario almost turned that around.

We are given a list of the best sellers for the week, by the people who keep track. Not as units sold, but as a ratio in proportion of the top seller ie. #1=100% #2 sold 86% of #1, #3 sold 52% of #1, etc. You can get ratios from this, but you don't know if #1 sold 1 million copies, or 100. They also aren't always accurate either. We are given a snapshot, but no point of reference. Plotting points on a curve without a scale or even a label is relatively useless.
J

The point is that we have some actual figures (from the leaked VideoScan report, from HMM at the end of Q1, for The Departed BD/HD, for Matrix vs Pirates).

The rest is algebra.

The point is that we have some actual figures (from the leaked VideoScan report, from HMM at the end of Q1, for The Departed BD/HD, for Matrix vs Pirates).

The rest is algebra.
Unless I'm mistaken, we have very few actual numbers, mostly the ones you mention^^^. Most seem to be guestimates. How many solid numbers do we really have? How many copies has PE sold to date? How many copies has "Warriors of Heaven and Earth" sold?
J
Edit: Again, if we're talking such low numbers, are the ratios really of any value? How relevant were the SACD/DVD-A ratios?

The fact that Toshiba has decided to bundle HD DVD drives in its laptops does not really show that the prices have fallen. (trojan horse - customers being forced to pay extra for unused driver - we've heard it all now).

I'm assuming Tosh is not going to increase prices and lose a tonne of marketshare.

It is possible Tosh will just "offer" HD DVD drives as optional upgrades - in which case ofcourse it does not show the prices have come down much - and we go back to my earlier statement that I don't think the component prices will support a $99 add-on.

Is there a thread that has # of discs sold (instead of ratios) per title or format? I find the ratios to be overrated in terms of usefullness.
I would like to see # sold graphed, too. The ratios show the weekly change in market share but don't make clear how far ahead BD is now in terms of overall disk sales and what it would take for HD-DVD to catch up which I am interested in.

According to this Videoscan article (http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6442854.html), "The Blu-ray format, including both 25GB and 50GB discs, has sold about 1 million units in the U.S. through April". Is this useful info for those estimating overall sales from the ratios?

I can't find the post but there are several UMD titles that hit 100k sold in 2005.

8 million UMD movies were sold through early 2006. (I can't find any #s through 2007 though).


In February 2006, Paramount Home Entertainment, Warner Home Video, and even Sony Pictures Home Entertainment announced that they were cutting back releases for the PSP, citing disappointing sales of about 50,000 per title.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Media_Disc

So it seems that the often quoted 'failed format' UMD has/had better sales than the HD media formats so far - what percentage of HD media titles have hit 50k in sales?

On the plus side, Sony still releases titles on UMD, so it seems at least that Sony will support their format moving forward regardless :cool: I have seen recent UMD releases (like Borat) from other studios also.

All that said, DVD took a long time to get going also, with poor studio support, etc, and it is hardly a failed format. It seems that people love to poor doom and gloom on anything they can... I think that the HD Media formats are doing well considering the time frame, competition and required price of entry...

Did any laserdisc titles ever get to 100k sold?

--Darin

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx

What's with the Blu-ray sales peak on Amazon?

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx

What's with the Blu-ray sales peak on Amazon?

3x2 sale (selected Sony titles only).

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx

What's with the Blu-ray sales peak on Amazon?

Sony's trying to cook the books. ;)

Sony's trying to cook the books. ;)


Can anyone smell the Sony sales report cooking? I would guess we're about 2-3 weeks from seeing some updated numbers.

Can anyone smell the Sony sales report cooking? I would guess we're about 2-3 weeks from seeing some updated numbers.

Seems just in line with Tosh reducing the hardware to $250 and giving ANY 2 free titles with the purchase of the Matrix.....but i i forgot sony R Teh Devilz!1!

Sony's trying to cook the books. ;)
Can anyone smell the Sony sales report cooking? I would guess we're about 2-3 weeks from seeing some updated numbers.

It sure is nice that all Blu-ray fans can enjoy Sony's cooking. Toshiba only serves theirs to the new customers. Too bad for you, I hope you didn't buy a few months ago when prices were $200 higher. Thats gotta sting. Get your free movies yet?

Originally posted bydarinp2Did any laserdisc titles ever get to 100k sold?

I not sure if any of these were on a one shot deal, but I know the following titles sold at least 100,000 total.

Abyss, The
Aliens
Star Wars Trilogy
Terminator 2
Fantasia (Maybe... There are reports that over 250,000 were pressed, since this was supposed to be the title that was supposed to push LD into the mainstream back in the day...)

Josh Zyber's Laserdisc Forever web site might have some numbers...

fitprod

I must say I'm enjoying Sony's cooking quite thoroughly, they've bake up fantastic products :D

Though sure I'm some would prefer to settle for the cheaper quality McDonalds priced brand as well, just not personal style with my home theater gear. Neither choice is wrong though, just preference.

Though sure I'm some would prefer to settle for the cheaper quality McDonalds priced brand as well, just not personal style with my home theater gear. Neither choice is wrong though, just preference.

Hey, let them offer me Supersize combos at half prize and my HD DVD collection will soon suffer from obesity. :D

Hey, let them offer me Supersize combos at half prize and my HD DVD collection will soon suffer from obesity. :D

Haha, remember back when you could buy VHS movies from McDonalds for like $40? Those were the days! =)

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/versus.aspx

What's with the Blu-ray sales peak on Amazon?


Layer cake, CR, and Black Hawk Down are on there because of sony's 3 for 2 sale. You need to audit those. The rest are legitimate.

Appears possible that BR sales may go higher than it did with the 50% off sale. There's less movies, but the sale is a bit better.

I'd enjoy some HD DVD 3-for-2 bake sales, but none are forthcoming. :(

I'd enjoy some HD DVD 3-for-2 bake sales, but none are forthcoming. :(

Come to the Blu side. We all get to enjoy our bake sales over here. Or I guess you could buy another player for 5 different free movies. You only need to buy 3 players to collect em all ;)

None of the 3:2 I really want that I don't already have. They need to do this on Fox titles. Couple I didn't get at the last 50% off sale....

None of the 3:2 I really want that I don't already have. They need to do this on Fox titles. Couple I didn't get at the last 50% off sale....


I bought layer cake at CC for $20, I'll get a copy from amazon and return it at CC. Then pick up Identity & Kung Fu Hustle, which will end up being $10 each after I return layer cake.

So the sale is good for me. *shrug*

Planet Earth sells ~42,000 copies.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=241

Hey, let them offer me Supersize combos at half prize and my HD DVD collection will soon suffer from obesity. :D

Hell yeah, I'm down for that :)

Blu-ray ahead for the week at AxelMusic.

http://www.axelmusic.com/index_fab.php?fid=38&cid=&pid=fmt

Planet Earth sells ~42,000 copies.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=241

Is there any way to find out if that figure is based on the numbers published last week or if they include the Nielsens we'll get on friday?

I'm either about 1.500 to low, had them at 40.500 after 5/27, or around 5.000 to high if they make another 6-7.000 the week of 6/2. Either way, only about 10% off after 5 weeks of weekly percentage estimations.

Planet Earth sells ~42,000 copies.

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=241

Great - now we can go back and sanity check all the figures !

Is there any way to find out if that figure is based on the numbers published last week or if they include the Nielsens we'll get on friday?

I'm either about 1.500 to low, had them at 40.500 after 5/27, or around 5.000 to high if they make another 6-7.000 the week of 6/2. Either way, only about 10% off after 5 weeks of weekly percentage estimations.

Using these can you get the top 5 for each format for the past weeks ?

ps : Your figure of 40.5K instead of 42K is great. Thats just 3.5% off. I do think Warner figures were till 5/27 Nielsen figures.

Can anyone smell the Sony sales report cooking? I would guess we're about 2-3 weeks from seeing some updated numbers.

I hope we get a detailed report like their April 18 report. Last week's high point for BD would be a good cut off point - though this time Disney may release the report (because of POTC) instead of Sony.

I hope we get a detailed report like their April 18 report. Last week's high point for BD would be a good cut off point - though this time Disney may release the report (because of POTC) instead of Sony.

Another detailed report would certainly be nice.

It sure is nice that all Blu-ray fans can enjoy Sony's cooking. Toshiba only serves theirs to the new customers. Too bad for you, I hope you didn't buy a few months ago when prices were $200 higher. Thats gotta sting. Get your free movies yet?

I got quite a nice deal on my AX2, thanks for asking.

Truth be told, I didn't even order HD DVDs on DD 20% off sale, but I did pick up 16 DVDs.

I honestly don't know what fans of either format find at these sales, unless you've really been pacing your HDM expenditures. I'm not inclined to buy titles I wouldn't otherwise own just because they're on sale.

Their are four unique BD titles I would buy if bought BD tomorow, Devil's Rejects, Memento, Descent, & American Psycho. Even though I've seen so-so reviews for the PQ on Devil's, and American Psycho. So, even as a convert I'd be no scale-tipper.

Please stick to the topic of software sales within this thread.

Thank you! :)

....

Sales data from last week are getting nearer. These were the titles released:

HD DVD
Dragonheart
The Frighteners
Lost in Translation
Midnight Run
The River

Blu-ray
Basic Instinct
Chris Botti Live with Orchestra and Special Guests
Curse of the Golden Flower
Weeds: Season One

No day-and-date releases, though Curse of the Golden Flower was released on DVD only 2 months before.

65:35 blu-ray.

71:29 Blu-ray


Marek

70:30 Blu-ray.

68:32 BR

HD gains a little ground because of the standalone sales, even though it kinda gets shafted on the matrix numbers. POTC sales fall off dramatically as well. No advantages to either side due to movie releases.

75:25

Hard to tell. Sony counters Toshiba's player discounts with a buy 2 get 3 fire sale.
That will give a strong short term boost to br sales.

Has anyone tried to compare Nielsen figures to Amazon top 10 rankings ? It would be neat to see if there is a correlation ...

50:50

I will call it even. HD DVD has its strongest showing this year. Although no blockbuster sellers, they are more spread out to catalog movies due to Toshiba's push of standalone sales. Sony' s counter sales are after June 3.

75:25

Hard to tell. Sony counters Toshiba's player discounts with a buy 2 get 3 fire sale.
That will give a strong short term boost to br sales.

I think that will show up in the next ratio. That thing only went into effect 2 days ago or so.

Hard to tell. Sony counters Toshiba's player discounts with a buy 2 get 3 fire sale.
That will give a strong short term boost to br sales.
That won't show in last weeks numbers. ;) Fire sale? :p

50:50

I will call it even. HD DVD has its strongest showing this year. Although no blockbuster sellers, they are more spread out to catalog movies due to Toshiba's push of standalone sales.
I'm going to guess and say you're not even in the ball park. I'm going to go with 69:31 in favor of BR. :)

I think this is a great month to see which argument holds more water. Do more blockbuster day-and-date releases mean victory, or do lots of catalog titles mean victory. Time will tell. Originally I thought HD DVD would have a lock on beating Blu-ray 6/26, but after todays dismal performance (even on Amazon) I'm not so sure. We'll know in a week how bad it was for todays releases, but I'm betting on extremely low volumes. HD DVD 's catalog strategy is also based on those catalog releases continuosly selling over a long period to an every expanding base of cheaper mass marketed players.

Once the player base gets larger, software sales should increase.

I am of the mind that high B&M retail prices prices are holding HD DVD (and Blu-ray's) sales down, and when retailers get serious about selling movie titles (like in the 4th qtr) and drop prices to $19.99 or within $5 of the DVD price sales will accelerate.

But I think retailers are waiting for the installed bases to grow before those price reductions.

Also, to a new owner, the entire released inventory looks like a new release at the time of purchase. And we have long since passed a critical mass of available movies to support a purchase decision. Its a question of retail stockage and pricing to a degree.

HD DVD 's catalog strategy is also based on those catalog releases continuosly selling over a long period to an every expanding base of cheaper mass marketed players.

I agree, and think that is why the ratio isn't telling much. Many of the new customers to either format, aren't going to just buy this weeks releases, but some of the older releases as well. Looking at the top 5 or 10 will not tell us that. An increase in sales of the older or lesser titles, especially if its steady, could throw the ratios out of wack.
J

From Fredfa's "Hot Off the Press" thread in the HDTV section:

Technology Notebook
'Planet Earth' Is Highest Grossing HD disc
By Thomas K. Arnold The Hollywood Reporter June 7, 2007

A British TV documentary has overtaken "The Departed" to become the biggest high-definition disc moneymaker yet.

"Planet Earth: The Complete Series," from BBC Video, has generated $3.2 million in consumer spending since its April 24 release on both the HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc formats, according to figures provided by Warner Home Video.

With an average sales price of about $70, that translates to about 42,000 units. Sales of "Departed" recently topped the 100,000-unit mark, but at an average street price of $25, the total amount of money generated was less than "Planet Earth." To date, "Departed" has sold 102,000 units and generated about $2.8 million in consumer spending.

"The consumer response to 'Planet Earth: The Complete Series' on both high-definition formats has been absolutely incredible, and we are truly proud to be a part of it," Warner Home Video president Ron Sanders said. "This landmark series was made for high definition, and 'Planet Earth' will be an iconic staple in our natural-history documentary library for a very long time."

"Planet Earth" contains the original, unedited British version of the celebrated series, narrated by David Attenborough. Five years in the making, the series cost $25 million to produce and was filmed by 71 camerapeople in 62 countries.

The next dual-format high-definition disc releases from BBC Video will be the Oscar-winning "A Room With a View: Special Edition" and the Peabody Award-winning natural-history documentary "Galapagos." Both titles will be out in the fall.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ic26ecb1cf2ac2ac67309e31d17422f31

HD DVD 's catalog strategy is also based on those catalog releases continuosly selling over a long period to an every expanding base of cheaper mass marketed players.

Once the player base gets larger, software sales should increase.

Also, to a new owner, the entire released inventory looks like a new release at the time of purchase. And we have long since passed a critical mass of available movies to support a purchase decision. Its a question of retail stockage and pricing to a degree.

If that is truly their strategy I just don't think it is going to work out how they envision it. Even with a market saturated with low cost players I don't think you are going to find a lot of people replacing their DVD collections with catalog titles. Right now we are in the early adopter phase. The phase where the consumer is most likely to re-buy their DVDs because they are AQ and PQ junkies, and as we can see catalog title sales are pathetic. Pirates and The Matrix had terrible sales, and they were the cream of the crop. As we have already seen, most consumers already think DVD is good enough, and I think they aren't going to replace their DVD collection. Most of the early-ish adopter people I know don't even plan to re-buy, and Joe 6 Pack certainly won't. Percentage-wise as you sell more players catalog titles will also probably see an increase, but I think the percentage increase for day-and-date new releases will be higher.


I am of the mind that high B&M retail prices prices are holding HD DVD (and Blu-ray's) sales down, and when retailers get serious about selling movie titles (like in the 4th qtr) and drop prices to $19.99 or within $5 of the DVD price sales will accelerate.

But I think retailers are waiting for the installed bases to grow before those price reductions.


I completely agree with you here. B&M prices are ridiculous. I think consumers are willing to pay at most $5 over the price of a DVD for the HD version. $25-30 movies are stifling the growth of both formats.

Sales ratios:

63:37 Blu-ray: HD DVD

1. Dead Mans Chest
2. Curse of the Black Pearl
3. Planet Earth HD
4. Apocalypto
5. Ultimate Matrix

61:39 in favour for Br

From Fredfa's "Hot Off the Press" thread in the HDTV section:

-SNIP-

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ic26ecb1cf2ac2ac67309e31d17422f31

A little late to the game, bud.

Has anyone tried to compare Nielsen figures to Amazon top 10 rankings ? It would be neat to see if there is a correlation ...

It's hard to make any conclusions because different types of films are selling proportionaly different on Amazon vs total market.

I have kept track of inventory levels and ranks for a bunch of titles varying widely in rank for a couple of months. I'm planning on making some kind of list with estimates of how much different ranks means that a titel sell on Amazon. However this will still be very difficult to apply to total market numbers.

It's known that Amazon has about 20% of the total market for DVD media. We don't know what share they have of HD media. However they do not have close to 20% of the top 1000 or maybe even top 10000 after release day.

They do have alot more than a 20% share in pre-orders and in deep catalogue, say past 10.000 in rank or so.

This affects different titles differently. I think Amazon has probably sold 25% or more of all Planet Earth copies. That's why a continued strong rank for that title is so impressive. I think that they are at the moment selling between 10-20% of all copies of quality back catalogue titles such as The Departed and Batman Begins. I don't think they are selling over 10% of all Pirates after release day. Maybe not over 5%. It's too widely available everywhere.

For lower ranked titles they could well still sell a very high percentage since many of those titles will not be available in b&m anymore. Of course it will still only amount to a few dozens or less per week for many titles.

Stay tuned, more info and speculation than you would ever care to know could be forthcoming.

72:28
Very similar to last week, but Matrix drops off a little quicker than POTC.

I'll guess 62:38 with the expected drop for POTC and the Matrix sets increasing the effect of Planet Earth and other discs, to help bring things closer for HD DVD.

--Darin

It's hard to make any conclusions because different types of films are selling proportionaly different on Amazon vs total market.

I agree ... but that doesn't preclude the possibility that avg top 10 ranking is still correlated to Nielsen %. We already know that in the weeks where avg ranking on Amazon is higher for HD DVD, Nielsen shows higher marketshare. Just wondering - how good that correlation is.

Since there was some talk about this before:

Christopher Fawcett, Sony home video product management VP, cited Nielsen sales data showing Blu-ray Disc currently represents 70 percent of HD video disc sales.

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6449900.html

Since there was some talk about this before:



http://www.twice.com/article/CA6449900.html

Yes, you can bet that every highlight will be touted (as if its the norm, rather than a peak).

70/30 BD of coz.

Yes, you can bet that every highlight will be touted (as if its the norm, rather than a peak).
Not much different than saying player sales have increased 5x to 10x. It's PR.

Not much different than saying player sales have increased 5x to 10x. It's PR.

Yeah, not much difference between a company saying we're lowering our price with a 100 bucks and as a result we're selling 5 times as much compared to a company picking a very specific date announcing a bigger sales lead than any other day picked without explaining why that date was picked. Yep, pretty much the same thing.

I'll guess 62:38 with the expected drop for POTC and the Matrix sets increasing the effect of Planet Earth and other discs, to help bring things closer for HD DVD.

--Darin

I think you are right on. With the top titles from last week dropping dramatically PE and all titles not in top 10 will have a larger impact. HD DVD should be up a couple of points from last week. I'll go with 64:36

I still can't get over Apocalytpos fall. If it's really going down from 17.000 to 3.000 that's a disaster for the title. Somehow Rentrack must be off and Apocalypto will beat PE BD and reach maybe 5.000 copies. Still not good but not a catastrophe.

If somehow Pirates show a similar drop which I doubt it will be very worrying for HD in general.

If that is truly their strategy I just don't think it is going to work out how they envision it. Even with a market saturated with low cost players I don't think you are going to find a lot of people replacing their DVD collections with catalog titles. Right now we are in the early adopter phase. The phase where the consumer is most likely to re-buy their DVDs because they are AQ and PQ junkies, and as we can see catalog title sales are pathetic. Pirates and The Matrix had terrible sales, and they were the cream of the crop. As we have already seen, most consumers already think DVD is good enough, and I think they aren't going to replace their DVD collection. Most of the early-ish adopter people I know don't even plan to re-buy, and Joe 6 Pack certainly won't. Percentage-wise as you sell more players catalog titles will also probably see an increase, but I think the percentage increase for day-and-date new releases will be higher.



I completely agree with you here. B&M prices are ridiculous. I think consumers are willing to pay at most $5 over the price of a DVD for the HD version. $25-30 movies are stifling the growth of both formats. The real test is when Wal-Mart, Barnes and Noble etc start showing large displays of HD discs on retail display at a $19.99 price point.

By the end of the year, Wal-MArt Costco or Sam's Club could create a wall of 600 titles of either format for sale at $19.99 or less.

That would sell a lot of those catalog titles.

Lack of retail display space and high retail prices on currently displayed titles is holding back HD sales. Once there is anough of an installed base of players , retailers can decide to drop prices and show inventory to immeditely drive sales.

The significance of the lower HD DVD standalone player prices and of the possible mass retailer interest in HD DVD players (Wal-Mart) , is that those factors can lead to a much larger installed player base of dedicated players, bought to watch movies on.

With the PS3 already bringing a large possible installed base to Blu-ray and with the price drops to the HD A2 bringing a larger installed base to HD DVD, both formats may have by this fall enough installed base for the studios and retailers to really push disc sales by this fall.

Once we see B&M prices of HD discs consistently near DVD prices (or within a $5 premium) or at $19.99 or below for catalog titles, then we know the retailers are getting serious about selling HD content.

59/41 Blu-ray

63:37 Bd

The real test is when Wal-Mart, Barnes and Noble etc start showing large displays of HD discs on retail display at a $19.99 price point.


My local Fry's is already doing this, sharing the rack between the two formats (though they do have roughly 3:1 BD titles iirc). They have most Sony and Warner catalog titles at $19.99.

Since I am here... umm... 65:35 :)

59/41 Blu-ray

Kosty I have to say I always admire your enthusiasm.

I'm sorry, but I don't really consider that OK, I consider that pretty pathetic really.
100,000 when the formats have been around for over a year? I'm underwhelmed. I'm sorry, but after seeing the sales figures for Pirates and Matrix, this whole weekly ratio bit is starting to take on a surreal air.

J
{ :^ 0 Yawn

No doubt, J.

Someone call me when it's over please.


I gotta' say, I don't know how you guys do it. You keep hangin' in there for the weekly disappointments.

Kudos.

Did any laserdisc titles ever get to 100k sold?

--Darin
So that's where we're at? We're bragging about beating LD by a whisker?

Not exactly a good sign.

I'm a bit late to the game this week (again), but I'm predicting 53:47 in favor of Blu-ray.

(Hey, that's what I predicted last week . . . and I was way off!)

I am also late to the game, but put me down for 68:32 for Blu..

60:40 Bd:hd

So that's where we're at? We're bragging about beating LD by a whisker?

Not exactly a good sign.

Wasn't the quote that the first DVD to ship 100k units was 11 months after launch?

Yet DVD is largely regarded as the most successful format to date.

Perhaps we should keep our expectations realistic here... these are the infant years.

Phloyd...

What are you doing? Using rational thoughts? That's blashphemy for the fanbois...

fitprod

Kosty I have to say I always admire your enthusiasm. even when I get the cookie for being accurate? :D

;)

I see all these weekly numbers as warmups until Sep or so though.

Did any laserdisc titles ever get to 100k sold?

--Darin

Dont remember exactly. Long time ago. But remember that Toy Story sold 300,000. The first Star Wars box did probaly sell well over 100k also. It did sell several thousands copies here in Norway alone (population 4 million).

Perhaps we should keep our expectations realistic here... these are the infant years.

Right, it's barely a year after launch and people are wanting millions of copies sold, every title out and players for $50! Those things don't happen for years after launch.

Wasn't the quote that the first DVD to ship 100k units was 11 months after launch?

Yet DVD is largely regarded as the most successful format to date.

Perhaps we should keep our expectations realistic here... these are the infant years.
Fair enough, but I'm still going with nataraj on this one. I'm guessing that the chart for DVD was slanted a little more in the other direction for that first year. That's the part I'm having a hard time with. I certainly don't expect huge volumes at this point. Never did. But it would be really nice to see some positive growth rather than the negative that has been documented here for some time now.

Let's just hope that last week's boost was not another one time gig.

For example...


Departed Promise of High-Definition Discs

Warner Home Video last week heralded its sale of more than 100,000 high-definition copies of Oscar-winner The Departed – the first Studio to do so.

The tally, which included Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD that Warner shrewdly co-distributes, appeared to laud, at best, baby steps.

Remember when Buena Vista's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest sold 10.5 million DVDs its first week in stores? Since when did we settle for championing an individual title's total unit sales exceeding 100K?

Specifically, slightly more than 58,000 Blu-ray units and 35,000 HD DVD units of The Departed were sold at the end of April, according to Home Media Magazine's market research department.

These are unit totals typically reserved for third-edition DVD re-releases, direct-to-video and niche fare – not major studio movies.

The Departed's $3.4 million revenue didn't match individual weekly revenue totals for any of the top 12 DVD rental releases for the week ended May 13, according to Home Media Research.

And Departed DVD sales undoubtedly exceeded high-def sales exponentially, or that would have really been (bad) news.

Yet, the studios continue to churn out the high-def hype regardless that the format war is stifling both adoption and sales among the general consumer – the lifeblood of packaged media.

Wal-Mart, which reportedly accounts for 40% of all DVD sales, is still trying to comprehend high-def discs. Try finding more than a title or two and a sales clerk at a local Wal-Mart who even knows the existence of two formats.

Until then, I take with a big dose of skepticism Warner Home Video president Ron Sanders' explanation that Blu-ray and HD DVD represent the industry's "best hope" for near-term growth.

Because if that's true, it's time to get off the HD Titanic.


http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom060307/index.php?startpage=12

Eh, no numbers yet? BD 73-27 HDDVD

It was clear the original remarks about $50 players and millions of copies was a semi-humourous exageration to make a point about the number of doom-sayers constantly yapping on about how HD disc is only 1% of the HV market (OK, thanks, we got it). :rolleyes:


Right. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that most of the "doom-sayers" lean heavily HDDVD. ;)

Has anyone tried to compare Nielsen figures to Amazon top 10 rankings ? It would be neat to see if there is a correlation ...
There is no correlation. We already saw this from months of casual observation --- P.E. is doing much better on amazon than it is on retail B&M, and PotC sells much higher numbers on reail than on amazon. Even the rankings in amazon do not match the known rankings.

T5E for example had been in top 10 BD sales for EVERY WEEK until last month, yet had not shown any strength on amazon.

By looking at the discrepancy, I expect the amazon demographics is a very narrow segment of the buying public and this group of people behave very differently.

Right. I'm sure it's just a coincidence that most of the "doom-sayers" lean heavily HDDVD. ;)

"doom sayers" belong to the pragmatic/reality community - they can look t things without getting hung up on specs or marketing spin. They can take an impassionned look at facts and come to conclusions. Whether it is a co-incidence that most of these pragmatists are HD DVD supporters ... I'm not going to comment ;)

"doom sayers" belong to the pragmatic/reality community - they can look t things without getting hung up on specs or marketing spin. They can take an impassionned look at facts and come to conclusions. Whether it is a co-incidence that most of these pragmatists are HD DVD supporters ... I'm not going to comment ;)

I"d say the HDDVD supporters are pessimists, the pragmatic/realistics are neutral, and the optimists are Blu-ray. Though I tend to post towards the latter, I buy towards the middle. ;)

It was clear the original remarks about $50 players and millions of copies was a semi-humourous exageration to make a point about the number of doom-sayers constantly yapping on about how HD disc is only 1% of the HV market (OK, thanks, we got it). :rolleyes:

Well it was only a semi-exaggeration. I've seen plenty of posts complaining about the price of players and the lack of titles and saying things like "Blu-ray is too expensive". There's clearly a section of the commentators who don't recognise that we're in year one and believe the companies should employ year four strategies and pricing now. My comments were only an exaggeration of that, and it's not a huge leap.

Do they have a place here? Probably not, but neither does 90% of the comments. I was only responding to a comment (I even quoted it!) about someone who had failed to recognise we were still in year one.

"doom sayers" belong to the pragmatic/reality community - they can look t things without getting hung up on specs or marketing spin.

Funny because I also belong to that same community and I forsee a different a much brighter outlook!

It is not a coincidence that so many HD DVD supporters are doom sayers. Naturally some might be genuine but it smacks of "We won't win, therefore no one will" because admitting you've lost is far too hard for some of the more forthright people.

There is no correlation. We already saw this from months of casual observation --- P.E. is doing much better on amazon than it is on retail B&M, and PotC sells much higher numbers on reail than on amazon. Even the rankings in amazon do not match the known rankings.
It's too strong to say that there is "no correlation." There has been some, albeit limited, correlation. Planet Earth on HD DVD was, after all, the #1 seller one week (and it was also the #1 HD title on Amazon that week). The Pirates movies have done very well on Amazon, and they have done very well in the wider market. So, while limited, there has been some limited correlation. Of course, because the correlation has been limited, the value of that correlation may be very low (or one might even say that it has "no" value).

Then again, you might think I'm playing a semantic game. And you would, of course, be welcome to your opinion. ;) :)

They can take an impassionned look at facts and come to conclusions.The problem is nobody here knows all the facts. ;)

The problem is nobody here knows all the facts. ;)

Isn't that the "problem" everywhere ? If you wait to collect all the facts - you will wait for ever ! We definitely should not be afraid of making decisions in this uncertain world ;)

It is not a coincidence that so many HD DVD supporters are doom sayers. Naturally some might be genuine but it smacks of "We won't win, therefore no one will" because admitting you've lost is far too hard for some of the more forthright people.

This is off-topic, yet I'm compelled. By the same logic BD guys blame HD DVD as "spoiler" rather than a healthy does of competition, smacks of "If HD DVD lives it will ruin everything" Both side plays the same hand if indeed there is a hand being played.

I listen to what people and analysts who aren't Pro or anti HDM say, and there are a huge number of people aware, and uninterested by HDM.

It's always been my view that if it looks like an upgraded DVD, plays like and upgraded DVD, then yes, it's an upgraded DVD. It will be adopted or ignored as an improvement buy the general populace. They know how much they want to fork over for DVD +. That's not sour grapes, and it's not HD format specific.

On a related note, when do the numbers come out each week? I get mixed up between peoples predictions and such and the first official post of the actual sales ratios. Are they always from Nielsen?