I checked a nearby CC this weekend and they did have Toshiba HD-DVD. Stupidly enough though, I could find no HD-DVD discs.

A month ago, I asked if they had any HD-DVD's. The sales guy said they only carried Blu-ray and would never carry HD-DVD, because BD was superior in every way. Oops!

Good lackies are so hard to find these days. Give that kid a raise! :D

The sales figures don't figure into discerning a winner at this time in my estimation, but the movies coming out do:

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html
http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

It is not even close IMO. I don't own either. If/when I do buy it will be Blu Ray because there are more exclusive movies that I want. Both in announced titles and in the back catalogues.

If there is a must have Universal title, I will settle for DVD.

It's amazing how much we can predict based on 2 weeks of sales data. I'm sure at some point UMD was looking like the portable media for the future with super fantastic short term trends....

Kinda like when we expected the war in Iraq to end after a few weeks of fighting.

PM sent.

Was considering buying a standalone HD-DVD player to run next to my PS3. Not going to bother now. It's a race. Which comes first, Blu-ray getting all the titles or a 1080p HD-DVD player for $100. I'm in no hurry. Some great titles are HD-DVD exclusive but seeing the sales results I'm going to wait. Not buying a $600 turkey.

It is funny about the PS3. All the bashing and reporting said demand had dropped to the floor and that the built in blu-ray drive would do nothing to help the blu-ray camp because gamers don't want it. And here we are, still amazon can't keep a PS3 in stock longer than a day and the console has single handedly taken away the only advantage HD-DVD had - early lead in the market share.

I checked a nearby CC this weekend and they did have Toshiba HD-DVD. Stupidly enough though, I could find no HD-DVD discs.

A month ago, I asked if they had any HD-DVD's. The sales guy said they only carried Blu-ray and would never carry HD-DVD, because BD was superior in every way. Oops!

at my local CC the HD-DVD are in the same section as the DVD's while blu-ray's are out on display between all the HDTV's.

I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.

How much does Fox discs go for??

Was considering buying a standalone HD-DVD player to run next to my PS3. Not going to bother now. It's a race. Which comes first, Blu-ray getting all the titles or a 1080p HD-DVD player for $100. I'm in no hurry. Some great titles are HD-DVD exclusive but seeing the sales results I'm going to wait. Not buying a $600 turkey.

It is funny about the PS3. All the bashing and reporting said demand had dropped to the floor and that the built in blu-ray drive would do nothing to help the blu-ray camp because gamers don't want it. And here we are, still amazon can't keep a PS3 in stock longer than a day and the console has single handedly taken away the only advantage HD-DVD had - early lead in the market share.

good for you! and on your second para .. :D :D :D LMAO !! :D

Well, it's extremely frustrating to see studios sit on the sidelines when they have hd-dvd releases in the can.

Pent up frustration is evident when you see the first decent new release in months shoot to the top 100 of the Amazon charts and best the position of the #1 BR release.

The real concern that I have is that studios are intentionally starving HD-DVD content over the next several months to see if they can kill HD-DVD off that way.

I'd love to see what Amir has to say about this, backed by some facts, not the same "just hang in there" we've been hearing for weeks now.

Like Warners holding off HD DVD top tier films waiting for "parity" with BD? The BD group is laughing their asses off. I am not pissed with Toshiba I am pissed with the so called "neutral" studios. It doesn't take a genius to realize that if the BD group dumps a ton of films for purchase, or preorder, their numbers are going to rise as far as attachment rate. I only hope the HD DVD group (as I am sure they have) has taken this into their long term strategy. I am still pissed though. Very frustrating period of time. I would buy into BD if not for the BD-J debacle. This is still unknown. I won't invest in a current player until I know it has full interactive features for BD and I am not getting any positive responses from the BD insiders. When it comes to BD-J soon to be interactive features they are silent.

If this is a precursor to the future. The blame for HD DVD failurerests in three places.

1) Neutral studios refusing to release HD DVD product while BD catches up
2) Universal slowing down their release schedule for totally bizzare reason.
3) HD DVD early adopters being impatient and buying bluray as well.

IMO, Anyone who is too damn impatient to follow through with a purchasing descision deserves to loose the $500+ entry price for a HD DVD player when they eventually have to stop using it.

Personally, I refuse to buy Bluray and undermine the format I want to win the war. It diminishes the value of the software titles and machine I paid for.

The overiding issue I have now is that they keep releasing HD DVD at a rate that means I will have significant quantities of titles into the future so I can continue to use the hardware I purchased. I will keep buying them cheap even off those of you that dump HD DVD going foward.

If I eventually buy Bluray cause it wins. I will still have a use for HD DVD and the player years into the future and certianly wont replace titles with possibly cruddy Mpeg2 transfers.

In all likeyhood a dual format player will appear way before then. I win either way.

BUT DONT UNDERMINE HD DVD by being impatient. If you buy Bluray, you are sending a very scrambled message that will undermine studios who may be teetering on going neutral.

A few of my own Carnac predictions...

1) Warner not finding any other willing victims for their Total HD discs wiil produce 4 titles that are greeted by howls of complaints by both sides "being forced to pay for that other disc :mad: "

2) Paramount after going through the pains of BD and HD-DVD combo disc production for the most of 2007 announce in October they are dropping HD-DVD for "the low cost solution of Blu-Ray".

3) Toshiba announces at CES 2008 three new Blu-Ray/HD-DVD combo players to "fill the gap" for HD-DVD supporters. The new players will also support the new 51GB TL discs that replace the older 30GB DL format that is being abandoned. Warner at the same time anounces "Total HD+" which is a 51GB/50GB HD combo flipper disc aimed to reduce retailer and consumer confusion about the new HD formats. ;)

b2b

ROFLMAO :D :D :D

Howls of laughter, pounding floor in unbridled laughter :rolleyes:

ROFLMAO again :D :D :D


Your not actually serious there , are you? :confused:

0% chance

(only if all the boats carrying the HD A2s over at don't make it to shore)

If this is a precursor to the future. The blame for HD DVD failurerests in three places.

1) Neutral studios refusing to release HD DVD product while BD catches up
2) Universal slowing down their release schedule for totally bizzare reason.
3) HD DVD early adopters being impatient and buying bluray as well.

IMO, Anyone who is too damn impatient to follow through with a purchasing descision deserves to loose the $500+ entry price for a HD DVD player when they eventually have to stop using it.

Personally, I refuse to buy Bluray and undermine the format I want to win the war. It diminishes the value of the software titles and machine I paid for.

The overiding issue I have now is that they keep releasing HD DVD at a rate that means I will have significant quantities of titles into the future so I can continue to use the hardware I purchased. I will keep buying them cheap even off those of you that dump HD DVD going foward.

If I eventually buy Bluray cause it wins. I will still have a use for HD DVD and the player years into the future and certianly wont replace titles with possibly cruddy Mpeg2 transfers.

In all likeyhood a dual format player will appear way before then. I win either way.

BUT DONT UNDERMINE HD DVD by being impatient. If you buy Bluray, you are sending a very scrambled message that will undermine studios who may be teetering on going neutral.

Let me guess. Don Quixote, the whole ride a magic horse to fight the windmill deal? There's a song in there somewhere.

I'm asking because I'm curious about how the 'want' part clicked in. Under the best scenario, HD DVD will survive for a couple of years, maybe more, but under the latest sales trend, HD DVD has almost zero chance of making BD go away, also zero chance of making Sony MGM (possibly Fox & Disney too) give up on BD.

IMO, at this point HDDVD is really only fighting for a draw.

It's amazing how much we can predict based on 2 weeks of sales data.It isn't just 2 weeks of sales data. It is all the stuff we have from the Amazon rankings and the relative data for April 18th to now. But I do think many people are going too far with the predictions from it. Hopefully we will continue getting data for other weeks.
BD movies consistently secondary to HD DVD. BDA=1.025M players, HD DVD=175K. BD should BY NOW outsold HD DVD 5:1. Yet still, Amazon data consistently show HD DVD ahead of BD. What went wrong?The PS3s as a whole shouldn't have the same attach rates as standalone players, so why do you claim that BD should be outselling HD DVD 5:1? Your numbers also seen to be using shipped instead of sold for the BDA side or assume no HD DVD player sales after December 31st. And your statement about what the Amazon data shows is out of date. You could say it used to consistently show HD DVD ahead of BD, but it isn't right now and hasn't for at least a week (and even before that they were going back and forth throughout some days).

--Darin

at my local CC the HD-DVD are in the same section as the DVD's while blu-ray's are out on display between all the HDTV's.


You do all know that product placement is paid for by the manufacturer and is not the retail store taking sides?

When I wrote Best Buy about this very issue, they told me strait-up that "special display and demos are created at the manufactures request"

Translation, Sony's paying them to play-up BD. Perfectly legal, the same is true of breakfast cereal and booze. However, don't confuse it with any sort of voluntary support on the part of major retailers.

Sonyron will defeat all of his enemies.

Sonyron will defeat all of his enemies.

I really like your sig... and I think it's something Sony's concerned with!
While some folks here say Sony would love us to buy the PS3 no matter why, I have my doubts. If folks don't buy the games and rent the movies, this is going to really sting! Especially if Sony lowers the price even further (as I hear it's something they're considering)

As a gaming system, it competes with the more established 360 and the hotter and more affordable wii.

As a blu-ray player it's nearly 1/2 the cost of the standalones.

I bet we'll start to hear more about this.

IMO, at this point HDDVD is really only fighting for a draw.

If the underlying economics are better for hd-dvd, a draw could be as good as a win.

In other words BD can launch it's format based on heavy subsidies but can it sustain a format based on heavy subsidies? The costs of the format have to come down by driving volume up and being in a war with hd-dvd along with the ongoing fight to overtake DVD can't help volumes.

The BD plan is best in a win quickly scenario.

The sales information is spreading to more mainstream sites such as TG Daily (http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/02/01/bluray_beating_hddvd_nielsen/) and Slashdot (http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/02/01/1758222&from=rss).

TG Daily (http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/02/01/bluray_beating_hddvd_nielsen/)

Millions of consoles have been sold and most include a voucher for money back on a Blu-Ray disc purchase.

? Did I miss the voucher?

Sony cannot afford to sells hundreds of millions of PS3! PERIOD !! Especially when they are not getting anything back from game software sale. ;)

If the underlying economics are better for hd-dvd, a draw could be as good as a win.

In other words BD can launch it's format based on heavy subsidies but can it sustain a format based on heavy subsidies? The costs of the format have to come down by driving volume up and being in a war with hd-dvd along with the ongoing fight to overtake DVD can't help volumes.

The BD plan is best in a win quickly scenario.

Both formats have subsidized in different ways. The pre-launch HD-A1 pricecut is not done because Toshiba suddenly discovered their bom was magically lower. Sony included rebates for BD movies in PS3s sold in US (no such luck for canadians) while Toshiba gave coupons for 3 free movies in every hd dvd player.

Because it is a format war, both sides are indeed pouring money in, meaning we all get good deals, which is why buying both players make sense in the short term.

Costs are not constant over time. Toshiba for example did find a magic way to reduce costs when they switched from BRCM to NEC and a different system architecture, while Sony's gameplan with PS3 is the age-old "squeeze the suppliers" that is very effective once you are talking millions of units.

Besides, many estimates of the HD-A1 and PS3 components are unrealistic. The PS3 HDD for example have been priced higher than what I would pay from local retail stores, as well as pricewatch.com, meaning while PS3 is sold below cost today, the exact amount is not that widely reported number, and is probably not far from breakeven. As was the HD-A1.

TOKYO, Jan. 30 — Sony, the Japanese electronics maker, said today that its profit had slipped in the third quarter as it took large losses on its new PlayStation 3 game console.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/technology/30sonycnd.html?_r=1&ref=technology&oref=slogin

Tokyo — Toshiba said on Wednesday quarterly profit more than tripled
Sales rose in Toshiba’s digital products business, where its consumer electronics and PC categories reside
http://www.twice.com/article/CA6411961.html?nid=2402

Tosh's subsidy of HD DVD is not close to what BD is doing. At this point Toshiba is probably already breaking even or making money.

IMHO, the BD economics is not sustainable. But only time will tell. I will not be surprised even if many BD backers while taking Sonys 'handout with a smile are aware of the burden they are placing on Sony. All they have to do is say, we support BD and Sony takes care of the rest - it's called an entourage ;)

Will this be a quagmire for Sony? Not if they sell a lot of games to 50 million PS3 owners and are able to back away from subsidizing the big studios....and raising BD disk prices.

We haven't seen the end of this yet.

The end is near. By the time HD dvd come out with there weak and and old.... while Blu-ray Slams them with New titles out of theater everyweek almost. By the time april and may come around Ps3 will have Tons more huge game titles and alot more PS3 sold including the UK in march. My guess is by may Universal will be begging for a chuck of blu ray.... and then HD dvd will RIP. Sad but facts are painful.

People are not goin to buy a 500$ player for 2-3 titles they enjoy they are goin to watch where all the new good titles are coming from and like was post most of the top selling movies are Blu-ray.

The startup cost of building BD replication machines is no doubt higher than the old HD DVD ones --- unless the HD DVD ones also want to upgrade to new more cost effective technology to make the disks.

But these unit costs to run each disk, once the plants are up and running cannot be too different, because we are talking the same raw materials. Which means the question is if volume increase can be fast enough for production to bury the capital equipment costs. If you make 10 disks/hr, it's difficult to recoup a $1M investment, but if you can make 1000 disks/hr, the economics become easier.

Of course, this is just speculation, as I don't have their exact numbers. I am speaking from a general understanding behind the economics of 130nm vs 90nm wafer. If the tooling costs were a real hindrance to advancement in technology, we'd never have gotten to deep submicron. In fact, we'd still be stuck in discrete transistor land.

And as to whether Sony can sustain this is immaterial to everyone but Sony. As more new plants come online, the economics becomes easier and easier to handle. At this point, the quoted price for hassle-free content that any replication house will produce, is known to all here, and BD25 is quoted cheaper per unit than HD30.

If the new replication houses don't come online fast enough, then the economics don't make sense, and at some point it will be too painful.

But will reports like Nielsen's Videoscan data slow down or accelerate the building of new replication sites? What do you think? :)

Tosh's subsidy of HD DVD is not close to what BD is doing. At this point Toshiba is probably already breaking even or making money.

IMHO, the BD economics is not sustainable. But only time will tell. I will not be surprised even if many BD backers while taking Sonys 'handout with a smile are aware of the burden they are placing on Sony. All they have to do is say, we support BD and Sony takes care of the rest - it's called an entourage ;)

Will this be a quagmire for Sony? Not if they sell a lot of games to 50 million PS3 owners and are able to back away from subsidizing the big studios....and raising BD disk prices.

We haven't seen the end of this yet.

If the trend in disk sales continues, blu-ray will win the format war. In that event, blu-ray will not have competitive pressure from Toshiba hardware and HD DVD software. That will allow Sony and others to hold the line on standalone prices. Prices for blu-ray hardware will come down very slowly (glacier pace).

Disk prices may rise. Sony will reduce its subsidies for disk replication. Blu-ray will charge whatever the hd market will bear. PS3 prices will hold steady until economies of scale turn a profit for Sony. Independent movie studios will stay with DVD (given the expense of producing on blu-ray).

People like myself will not buy blu-ray hardware or software (we only got into the game because of affordability) for years, if ever. In other words, the whole introduction of hd hardware will go into reset or default mode, where low prices appear only very slowly. That will keep hd a niche market for longer than if HD DVD were applying pressure.

Sony has bet the bank on this. They are not going to back out of their subsidies until the war is over. Can they afford to do this? Yes. If disk sales continue to rise, studios and other hardware manufacturers will cut them some slack.

The consumer will pay more (at least for longer than otherwise) if there is only one format on the field. I believe that price/performance is still the critical part of this whole competition. Public adoption will be delayed considerably when or if blu-ray wins exclusivity.

The wild card in all of this is the sales number for HD-A2 and HD-XA2. The A2 still is the fifth best-selling DVD player at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/104-4016770-5119945

That is very remarkable for a "niche" product. Even more remarkable is the XA2 in sixteenth place -- a very expensive item for a ranking that high in sales. Just note the "bargain" players all around it.

The A2 sales figures and the attach rate of HD DVDs will be important statistics to add to the mix. One issue with less expensive players, however, is the purchasers are more likely to rent, rather than buy HD DVDs. In that case, the "disk sales war" will not reflect actual use. Of course, studios are more interested in sales than rentals.

If Toshiba's HDTV with player promo falls flat and if sales of the A2 slip, then I think Toshiba has few good cards left in its hand. In that event, the inexpensive Chinese players may never appear in any great quantity. But those are big "ifs."

Gizmodo has picked up the news (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/bluray-gaining-ground-on-hd-dvd-233151.php). And for a change, they're referencing this thread! Woo hoo!! :)

The end is near. By the time HD dvd come out with there weak and and old.... while Blu-ray Slams them with New titles out of theater everyweek almost. By the time april and may come around Ps3 will have Tons more huge game titles and alot more PS3 sold including the UK in march. My guess is by may Universal will be begging for a chuck of blu ray.... and then HD dvd will RIP. Sad but facts are painful.

People are not goin to buy a 500$ player for 2-3 titles they enjoy they are goin to watch where all the new good titles are coming from and like was post most of the top selling movies are Blu-ray.

:confused:

Sadly, I think YOU are ignoring the facts.

Both formats have subsidized in different ways.



Of course some subsidization takes place on both sides. Sony's investment starting with the PS3 subsidy alone, let alone investment in the tech itself, replication equipment, BD50 replication etc. isn't matched dollar for dollar by anything on hd-dvd side.

Because it is a format war, both sides are indeed pouring money in, meaning we all get good deals, which is why buying both players make sense in the short term.

I agree on the good deals, we consumers do get deals in pricing wars. Companies often have interesting ways of trying to recoup those losses later though when pricing wars are over.

Costs are not constant over time

These costs will come down over time but a lot it assumes big increases in volume. If volumes remain relatively low costs might now come down so fast.

R&D & those up front subsidies wont' be completely forgotten either as I'm sure Sony would love recover at least some of that at some point.

The end is near. By the time HD dvd come out with there weak and and old.... while Blu-ray Slams them with New titles out of theater everyweek almost. By the time april and may come around Ps3 will have Tons more huge game titles and alot more PS3 sold including the UK in march. My guess is by may Universal will be begging for a chuck of blu ray.... and then HD dvd will RIP. Sad but facts are painful.

People are not goin to buy a 500$ player for 2-3 titles they enjoy they are goin to watch where all the new good titles are coming from and like was post most of the top selling movies are Blu-ray.

While that may be true for the blue side of PS3, Sony has a much bigger uphill battle in the game side of things. With the PS3 bleeding exclusives left and right, the 360 with good content, and a kickin online interface, Sony finds itself in a place it is not used to, 3rd place. Also, please dont start with the "But wait and see what PS3 gets for games" With the 360 getting Mass Effect, Bioshock,Halo 3, its a tuff ride!

While that may be true for the blue side of PS3, Sony has a much bigger uphill battle in the game side of things. With the PS3 bleeding exclusives left and right, the 360 with good content, and a kickin online interface, Sony finds itself in a place it is not used to, 3rd place. Also, please dont start with the "But wait and see what PS3 gets for games" With the 360 getting Mass Effect, Bioshock,Halo 3, its a tuff ride!

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.
Well, that's is true if the the goal is a stalemate. However, if the real goal is Blu-ray outright winning, the numbers would need to be better.

I've been predicting a stalemate all along and it seems that's what is going to happen for the foreseeable future (ie. the next 2-3 years).

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.


Tell that to your friend who seems to think the PS3 will have blockbuster games out by May.

Regardless what you may think. The PS3 is a game console first to the public. If the public doesn't see games, it will not sell in volume.

Well, that's is true if the the goal is a stalemate. However, if the real goal is Blu-ray outright winning, the numbers would need to be better.

I've been predicting a stalemate all along and it seems that's what is going to happen for the foreseeable future (ie. the next 2-3 years).

I have to agree with Grubert here. The PS3 doesn't need to sell well by "PS2 standards." It only needs to sell well by "ordinary CE standards". In other words, the PS3 could be a failure by PS2 standards, but that's because the PS2 was one of the biggest CE successes ever. The PS3 doesn't need to meet or top that. And it doesn't need to meet or top the 360 either. It doesn't need that kind of volume to be a much better than average seller as a movie player, which is the standard by which it should be judged, (for these purposes).

The PS3 is a game console first to the public.

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it. The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

I have to agree with Grubert here. The PS3 doesn't need to sell well by "PS2 standards." It only needs to sell well by "ordinary CE standards". In other words, the PS3 could be a failure by PS2 standards, but that's because the PS2 was one of the biggest CE successes ever. The PS3 doesn't need to meet or top that. And it doesn't need to meet or top the 360 either. It doesn't need that kind of volume to be a much better than average seller as a movie player, which is the standard by which it should be judged, (for these purposes).

While I think that PS3 is selling to the AV enthusiast to get a "cheap" BR player, I still think that the bulk of purchases are being made by gamers.

If the games don't show up then sales of the PS3 will still slow, although I would expect "good" sales through 2007.

If there aren't several blockbuster games by the 2007 holiday season though I could see PS3 sales numbers getting destroyed by a low priced 2nd generation Xbox 360.

How will this relate to the BR war? As some have said, Sony's entire strategy with CE companies is to encourage them sell high profit boutique players while the PS3 basically wins the war for Blu-Ray. After the war has ended then BR players can gradually get reduced in prices to give CE companies similar profit margins to what they saw with DVD players before they became a commodity item.

If PS3 sales really stagnated it is hard to say if BR could out and out "win" or if it could merely reach a draw with HD-DVD.

I suspect that if we see very weak software support for HD-DVD over the next six months it is an indicator that studios are trying to force an end to the war that way.

If software support picks up for HD-DVD but PS3 sells in great quantity and attach rate remains as high as it has, HD-DVD is dead in early 2008.

If software support picks up for HD-DVD but PS3 sales go soft or attach rate slacks off then I see a stalemate.

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it. The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

Right, but is Sony's strategy that the PS3 is a blu-ray player sold as a gaming console or is it a gaming console that also pushes their new optical format?

The answer to this question is important because Sony can't sustain the heavy losses they are taking on the PS3 forever.

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.

You need to read my post again. I was responding to someone saying how great PS3 was going to be with games. I was not refering to BD.

Another example of PS3's split personality issues.

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Right, but is Sony's strategy that the PS3 is a blu-ray player sold as a gaming console or is it a gaming console that also pushes their new optical format?.

When Warner said they didn't think PS3/console would make a difference, they might be right that not too much gamers would buy $20-$25 HD discs. The problem here is not only gamers bought PS3.


The answer to this question is important because Sony can't sustain the heavy losses they are taking on the PS3 forever.

I don't think 200k-500k PS3 bought by none-gamers would make any difference in their balance sheet. However, it would be enough to lead the early adopters market by a very decent margin.

You do all know that product placement is paid for by the manufacturer and is not the retail store taking sides?

When I wrote Best Buy about this very issue, they told me strait-up that "special display and demos are created at the manufactures request"

Translation, Sony's paying them to play-up BD. Perfectly legal, the same is true of breakfast cereal and booze. However, don't confuse it with any sort of voluntary support on the part of major retailers.

of course.. wnorris said he couldn't find any, was merely try to let him know where they could be at his store.

Right, but is Sony's strategy that the PS3 is a blu-ray player sold as a gaming console or is it a gaming console that also pushes their new optical format?

The answer to this question is important because Sony can't sustain the heavy losses they are taking on the PS3 forever.
I can't find the reference now, but Sony swore that BD was added to the PS3 because of game content, and movie playing was serendipitous. Trying to justify the cost of the drive subsidy to be recovered on the backs of gamers, while doing the Trojan horse thing for the movie division.

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Wow, for it was 100/38 last weeks YTD, and 100/50 this weeks YTD???


WTH, that is a huge swing. I guess it just shows how volatile it is at this point.
That's good news for HD DVD, compared to last weeks release anyway.

The sales information is spreading to more mainstream sites such as TG Daily (http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/02/01/bluray_beating_hddvd_nielsen/) and Slashdot (http://games.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/02/01/1758222&from=rss).

Gizmodo has picked up the news (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/bluray-gaining-ground-on-hd-dvd-233151.php). And for a change, they're referencing this thread! Woo hoo!! :)

nice

Just to be clear -

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

If this trend continues, HD DVD will surpass BD in about 4 weeks!! (J/K) :)

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Week ended January 14, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00


What??? HD DVD made a 12% jump in only 7 days!!!

Now we can predict that BD will be destroyed in two months, right? :D

Or am I reading that wrong?

There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week, particularly with BD losing 10%.

They must be doing readjustments or something.

There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week.

They must be doing readjustments or something.

Now who's questioning the data?

Actually, it supports the idea that plazman was asking about volume. Low volume will cause this kind of swing. Or an ass kicking by HD DVD-- one or the other. :D

There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week, particularly with BD losing 10%.

They must be doing readjustments or something.

If sales of both formats are very low then it could easily change 10% or more in a week.

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it. The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

Early adopters are what? 2-5% of the market.

If you get HD DVD out with lower prices it gets to the public faster and it mutes the cries of the early adopter.

Give you guys an inch(2 weeks) and you take a mile(2 years) :)

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it.

The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

I'd agree except that you have to keep in mind that the 360 exists on the other side as an hd-dvd player marketed specifically to gamers. The addon sold better than expected with relatively little effort on the part of Toshiba or MS compared to the PS3 push.

Much depends on just how agressively MS does on or does not promote hd-dvd in it's gaming console going forward. Clearly the PS3 is showing that a game console IS a decisive way into the HD market (although that should have been clear long ago doh!). This of course is boosted by the fact that the PS3 is both the standalone blu-ray market AND the PS gamer market in one.

So how will the hd-dvd camp respond to the use of the gaming console to take the next-gen dvd market by storm? A Toshiba rep was quoted a few months ago as expecting an hd-dvd drive to show up in the 360 later but that was quickly denied by MS.

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

I agree.

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00
...

Historical data

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00
...

Week ended Jan 7

YTD: BD 100.00, HD 47.14
SI: BD 85.05, HD 100.00

Grubert, what is your analysis on this new set of data??

It was made a big deal that BD made up 7% of the deficit in one week (Jan 7-14) for discs sold Since Inception (SI). This was the sign that BD was on the charge, and that HD-DVD was ever so closer to obliteration.

Now, HD-DVD has gained back 10% ahead of BD in one-week (Jan 14-21) for the SI numbers. Also, YTD sales ratio decreased from almost 3:1 in favor of BD to 2:1.

Whoah !! BD as a format has tanked !! If this trend continues, what with more than 300 movies coming out for HD-DVD, BD will continue to lose 7-10% market share each week !!

Doom and Gloom, Ladies and Gents, Doom and Gloom !!!

Somehow I don't think all those "mainstream" news sites and blogs that picked up the earlier numbers would somehow post a revision of their sensational story saying that HD-DVD gained some back. :rolleyes:

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

So even with just a couple of new releases, HD-DVD gains ground. Just imagine what will be happening when HD-DVD starts releasing 20-30 titles a month in a few months.

Volumes are incredibly low right now, so you will see swings. If you read my past post, you will see I estimated 1.47 million discs for HD-DVD in 2006 and about 1.25 million discs for BD. I think that for one format to gain 10% on the other, they only need to outsell it by about 135,000 discs that week. A couple of good releases and you are there. With HD-DVD's limited numberof releases, BD should come out ahead more often, but once HD-DVD comes out swinging, it should have the edge as often as BD.

This is hilarious, now lets get all of the BD shills back on here that swore there was "no looking back" and that the numbers this week would show that HD-DVD was on its way to an early death by May.

I agree.

Does this end the circle jerk? ;)

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

i guess those in the HD-DVD camp should start a thread about this and start to make wild speculative guesses as to when this means BD will throw in the towel. :rolleyes:

Because the whole point of this idiotic thread is. If the numbers are correct BD sold more disc's in 2 weeks than HD-DVD. Yet, look how the BD champions came out in droves. Not pointing in your direction, just at the whole of most people in this thread.

This thread is a roller coaster ride. I never would have expected HD DVD to outsell BD last week. I'm still trying to figure out how this happened.

New data in:

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00


So a title without major mainstream appeal was able to repel the BD charge? Such a conundrum. :eek:

Grubert, what is your analysis on this new set of data??

It was made a big deal that BD made up 7% of the deficit in one week (Jan 7-14) for discs sold Since Inception (SI). This was the sign that BD was on the charge, and that HD-DVD was ever so closer to obliteration.

Now, HD-DVD has gained back 10% ahead of BD in one-week (Jan 14-21) for the SI numbers. Also, YTD sales ratio decreased from almost 3:1 in favor of BD to 2:1.

Whoah !! BD as a format has tanked !! If this trend continues, what with more than 300 movies coming out for HD-DVD, BD will continue to lose 7-10% market share each week !!

Doom and Gloom, Ladies and Gents, Doom and Gloom !!!

Somehow I don't think all those "mainstream" news sites and blogs that picked up the earlier numbers would somehow post a revision of their sensational story saying that HD-DVD gained some back. :rolleyes:

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?

If there is even the slightest bit of truth to any of the numbers, then they illustrate that the sales of both formats are really very, very low, as evidenced by the high volatility of the comparative numbers.

That may seem obvious, but it adds credence to the beliefs of some of us that we have a very long way until real hi-def disc adoption becomes widespread folks. There is no end to the format war in sight, and indeed, the real achievement will be to make the numbers look significant vs DVD.

Yet, look how the BD champions came out in droves. Not pointing in your direction, just at the whole of most people in this thread.



I should point out that I am an HD DVD supporter, though I care less about the subject now then I have in the past.
Now who's questioning the data?


Just so there is no confusion, it was me, an HD DVD supporter, who was questioning the data. So you can't imply hypocrisy on the other camp for it.

This thread is a roller coaster ride. I never would have expected HD DVD to outsell BD last week. I'm still trying to figure out how this happened.


I'm getting a visual:

Brianmonkey and Sketcha are shuffling papers, calling sources checking the stock market and crying fowl while whipping beads of sweat off there foreheads! The data must be wrong!

The 2 most obnoxious people in this thread imo. Continuously patting each other on the back as if they single handedly won the war themselves.

I can't wait to hear the spin they give this. I'm sure it'll be somewhere along the lines of "its only 1 weeks data, we've got 2 weeks data on our side!!"

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?

Let me first say thank you, for finding and posting the data. I should have had done this in my post. My bad.

Only the first line of my post was pointing at you, and the rest of the post was aimed at all the BD shills/cheerleaders here. I was just pointing that, just as with your original post in this thread that started all the hoopla, I was surprised when your post on the latest data did not include any analysis.

Curious as to why, that is all !! I would love to hear your analysis, BTW.

The startup cost of building BD replication machines is no doubt higher than the old HD DVD ones --- unless the HD DVD ones also want to upgrade to new more cost effective technology to make the disks.

But these unit costs to run each disk, once the plants are up and running cannot be too different, because we are talking the same raw materials. Which means the question is if volume increase can be fast enough for production to bury the capital equipment costs. If you make 10 disks/hr, it's difficult to recoup a $1M investment, but if you can make 1000 disks/hr, the economics become easier.

Of course, this is just speculation, as I don't have their exact numbers. I am speaking from a general understanding behind the economics of 130nm vs 90nm wafer. If the tooling costs were a real hindrance to advancement in technology, we'd never have gotten to deep submicron. In fact, we'd still be stuck in discrete transistor land.

And as to whether Sony can sustain this is immaterial to everyone but Sony. As more new plants come online, the economics becomes easier and easier to handle. At this point, the quoted price for hassle-free content that any replication house will produce, is known to all here, and BD25 is quoted cheaper per unit than HD30.

If the new replication houses don't come online fast enough, then the economics don't make sense, and at some point it will be too painful.

But will reports like Nielsen's Videoscan data slow down or accelerate the building of new replication sites? What do you think? :) The unit cost can be different even with the same materials if you are considering a higher error rate and a slower throughput rate and if the machines have to "warm up" and be calibrated before starting high yield production runs. Every unusable frisbee you make drives up effective unit costs. Plus a replicator has to recover new capital costs somehow.

Early adopters are what? 2-5% of the market.


I don't know. DVD sold around 300-400k during the first year. HD DVD camp is betting on that early adopter market would not make a big difference and they could have enough time/buffer to bring the mainstream player before Universal blinks. But they also think Sony couldn't delivery enough PS3. :)



If you get HD DVD out with lower prices it gets to the public faster and it mutes the cries of the early adopter.



That is what HD DVD camp is betting on. They also betting on bluray DL replication couldn't keep up with the demand once the game enters the mainstream turf. Let's wait and see. :)

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?
lol :)

I'm getting a visual:

Brianmonkey and Sketcha are shuffling papers, calling sources checking the stock market and crying fowl while whipping beads of sweat off there foreheads! The data must be wrong!

The 2 most obnoxious people in this thread imo. Continuously patting each other on the back as if they single handedly won the war themselves.

I can't wait to hear the spin they give this. I'm sure it'll be somewhere along the lines of "its only 1 weeks data, we've got 2 weeks data on our side!!"

oh wahhh! hahah. I never said the war was over in the first place. In fact I've said neither is going away any time soon (both sides have invested way too much money to just quit this early on, yes it is still very early), you might want to work on your comprehension skills just a bit or are you another HD-DVD zealot with extreme selective reading abilities? ;)

If the trend in disk sales continues, blu-ray will win the format war. In that event, blu-ray will not have competitive pressure from Toshiba hardware and HD DVD software. That will allow Sony and others to hold the line on standalone prices. Prices for blu-ray hardware will come down very slowly (glacier pace).

Disk prices may rise. Sony will reduce its subsidies for disk replication. Blu-ray will charge whatever the hd market will bear. PS3 prices will hold steady until economies of scale turn a profit for Sony. Independent movie studios will stay with DVD (given the expense of producing on blu-ray).

People like myself will not buy blu-ray hardware or software (we only got into the game because of affordability) for years, if ever. In other words, the whole introduction of hd hardware will go into reset or default mode, where low prices appear only very slowly. That will keep hd a niche market for longer than if HD DVD were applying pressure.

Sony has bet the bank on this. They are not going to back out of their subsidies until the war is over. Can they afford to do this? Yes. If disk sales continue to rise, studios and other hardware manufacturers will cut them some slack.

The consumer will pay more (at least for longer than otherwise) if there is only one format on the field. I believe that price/performance is still the critical part of this whole competition. Public adoption will be delayed considerably when or if blu-ray wins exclusivity.

The wild card in all of this is the sales number for HD-A2 and HD-XA2. The A2 still is the fifth best-selling DVD player at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/104-4016770-5119945

That is very remarkable for a "niche" product. Even more remarkable is the XA2 in sixteenth place -- a very expensive item for a ranking that high in sales. Just note the "bargain" players all around it.

The A2 sales figures and the attach rate of HD DVDs will be important statistics to add to the mix. One issue with less expensive players, however, is the purchasers are more likely to rent, rather than buy HD DVDs. In that case, the "disk sales war" will not reflect actual use. Of course, studios are more interested in sales than rentals.

If Toshiba's HDTV with player promo falls flat and if sales of the A2 slip, then I think Toshiba has few good cards left in its hand. In that event, the inexpensive Chinese players may never appear in any great quantity. But those are big "ifs." Once again oh web sage, you saved me the trouble of typing this myself.


The key issue here is the sales of the HD A2 and HD XA2 and the Xbox 360 add on. If they sell, HD DVD will be fine, and your horror story will never happen. If they fail I fear for niche content as well.

I don't know. DVD sold around 300-400k during the first year. HD DVD camp is betting on that early adopter market would not make a big difference and they could have enough time/buffer to bring the mainstream player before Universal blinks. But they also think Sony couldn't delivery enough PS3. :)




That is what HD DVD camp is betting on. They also betting on bluray DL replication couldn't keep up with the demand once the game enters the mainstream turf. Let's wait and see. :)

I'm not sure either. Just guesstimating.

As far as HD-DVD planning on Sony not getting enough PS3's out? I think they would have to have a fool at the helm to believe that.

I guess I don't see HD-DVD as betting this war was as simple as won. I think they accounted for and were expecting all these things to happen. You don't go to the Superbowl hoping for the Quarterback to make allot of turnovers, defense to let your RB have a 200yd game. You go in expecting to play the best team you ever played and make a plan according to that.

I don't think for 1 minute HD-DVD was planning on BD to beat themselves.

It isn't just 2 weeks of sales data. It is all the stuff we have from the Amazon rankings and the relative data for April 18th to now. But I do think many people are going too far with the predictions from it. Hopefully we will continue getting data for other weeks.
The PS3s as a whole shouldn't have the same attach rates as standalone players, so why do you claim that BD should be outselling HD DVD 5:1? Your numbers also seen to be using shipped instead of sold for the BDA side or assume no HD DVD player sales after December 31st. And your statement about what the Amazon data shows is out of date. You could say it used to consistently show HD DVD ahead of BD, but it isn't right now and hasn't for at least a week (and even before that they were going back and forth throughout some days).

--Darin
Exactly.

Also, didn't we figure early on in this thread that the Videoscan figures mirrored those of DVD Empire? How long have those numbers been positive for BD?

oh wahhh! hahah. I never said the war was over in the first place. In fact I've said neither is going away any time soon (both sides have invested way too much money to just quit this early on, yes it is still very early), you might want to work on your comprehension skills just a bit or are you another HD-DVD zealot with extreme selective reading abilities? ;)

Oh wahh, the tide is over as fast as it began!!

All you have to do is look at your post history and look at all the Thumbs Up and "nice" posts you made in this thread to people who said; "BD wins! HD-DVD dead"!

Haha, you're as transparent as the air I breathe. Nice try, thanks for playing!

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Is that Since Inception Number (SI) lowere than last week, or readjusted?


82.3 /100 SI seems less than the earlier data

TOKYO, Jan. 30 — Sony, the Japanese electronics maker, said today that its profit had slipped in the third quarter as it took large losses on its new PlayStation 3 game console.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/technology/30sonycnd.html?_r=1&ref=technology&oref=slogin

Tokyo — Toshiba said on Wednesday quarterly profit more than tripled
Sales rose in Toshiba’s digital products business, where its consumer electronics and PC categories reside
http://www.twice.com/article/CA6411961.html?nid=2402

Crap! I wasn't paying attention! Sony stock took a hit on Wed. and now it's recovered and beyond.

Maybe I'll get in for the next quarters profit report "hit."

Is that your way of saying thank you for finding the data and posting them first, regardless of which side they fall?

We appreciate you posting the data, but your answer is frankly a cop out. Lets face it you never would have started up this thread at a time when BD was behind.

Exactly.

Also, didn't we figure early on in this thread that the Videoscan figures mirrored those of DVD Empire? How long have those numbers been positive for BD?

Ah, damage control in full effect. Are you denying that it looks like one mediocre HD-DVD title was able to close the gap in one week with BD by a substantial amount?

Oh wahh, the tide is over as fast as it began!!

All you have to do is look at your post history and look at all the Thumbs Up and "nice" posts you made in this thread to people who said; "BD wins! HD-DVD dead"!

Haha, you're as transparent as the air I breathe (I'm guessing you are a smoker). Nice try, thanks for playing!

Looks like I was correct on both accounts, lol Well at least it is entertaining reading your misguided complaints about other posters :p

While I think that PS3 is selling to the AV enthusiast to get a "cheap" BR player, I still think that the bulk of purchases are being made by gamers.

If the games don't show up then sales of the PS3 will still slow, although I would expect "good" sales through 2007.

If there aren't several blockbuster games by the 2007 holiday season though I could see PS3 sales numbers getting destroyed by a low priced 2nd generation Xbox 360.

How will this relate to the BR war? As some have said, Sony's entire strategy with CE companies is to encourage them sell high profit boutique players while the PS3 basically wins the war for Blu-Ray. After the war has ended then BR players can gradually get reduced in prices to give CE companies similar profit margins to what they saw with DVD players before they became a commodity item.

If PS3 sales really stagnated it is hard to say if BR could out and out "win" or if it could merely reach a draw with HD-DVD.

I suspect that if we see very weak software support for HD-DVD over the next six months it is an indicator that studios are trying to force an end to the war that way.

If software support picks up for HD-DVD but PS3 sells in great quantity and attach rate remains as high as it has, HD-DVD is dead in early 2008.

If software support picks up for HD-DVD but PS3 sales go soft or attach rate slacks off then I see a stalemate.

The last scenario is if Toshiba indeed sells 1.5 million or more HD A2s this year , Xbox sells 500,000 Xbox add ons and the PS3 attach rates fall as time goes on and PS3 sales flatten. Then cheaper Chinsese players hit this fall and HD DVD adoption surges upward. Then its stalemate plus for HD DVD with a dominate market share with Blu-ray surviving as a mostly PS3 based format.

Lets face it you never would have started up this thread at a time when BD was behind.

Wrong. Grubert start the HD DVD: bluray=2:1 thread.

We appreciate you posting the data, but your answer is frankly a cop out. Lets face it you never would have started up this thread at a time when BD was behind.

Yes he would have. He's done similar things in the past. He post news if he thinks it is important.

Looks like I was correct on both accounts, lol Well at least it is entertaining reading your misguided complaints about other posters :p



Please, do tell and point out with references where you are "correct" on anything ;) :p

Gizmodo has picked up the news (http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/home-entertainment/bluray-gaining-ground-on-hd-dvd-233151.php). And for a change, they're referencing this thread! Woo hoo!! :)

Wow! And a link too. Way to go, G!

Ah, damage control in full effect. Are you denying that it looks like one mediocre HD-DVD title was able to close the gap in one week with BD by a substantial amount?

Nah, he's not in damage control yet. He is reading the older post first, and catching up. He hasn't got to the part where HD DVD outsold BD last week yet. It's kind of fun watching him work his way there. He's mosing along, replying as if BD is trending toward a certain victory, unaware of the new info.

Shout-out to Scketcha when you finally read this :)

Please, do tell and point out with references where you are "correct" on anything ;) :p

Is your memory that bad? You just quoted it recently, and proved it to be true as well :p

Yes he would have. He's done similar things in the past. He post news if he thinks it is important.

My mistake and apologies sent out to the Gruber man.

Is your memory that bad? You just quoted it recently, and proved it to be true as well :p

Point it out to me :)

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00


Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00


Thanks. Does it mean for every copy sold on clerks there is one crank sold?

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Grubert, is this info from the same site? If so that'd be a good sign, as it would seem to indicate we'll get a weekly snapshot of Nielsen every week reliably. Either way you seem on top of it, so I have faith.

Thanks. Does it mean for every copy sold on clerks there is one crank sold?

They're relative within their respective formats; so it's more like for every hundred copies of Crank, 97 copies of Gridiron Gang sold. For every hundred copies of Clerks II, 90 copies of Batment Begins.

How many Clerks II's relative to Crank's sold is unknown though.

Is that Since Inception Number (SI) lowere than last week, or readjusted?


82.3 /100 SI seems less than the earlier data

It is less because HD-DVD surged ahead last week.

Gizmodo:


It's not sure whether the Blu-ray boost came via the PS3 or if it was simply a lack of new HD DVD titles


Both.

It's whether and when this changes that is the debate.

Gary

Thanks. Does it mean for every copy sold on clerks there is one crank sold?
No. It is only relative to releases in the same format.

Wow, for it was 100/38 last weeks YTD, and 100/50 this weeks YTD???


WTH, that is a huge swing. I guess it just shows how volatile it is at this point.
That's good news for HD DVD, compared to last weeks release anyway.

Yep. Looks like this exemplifies the belief by some that the real sales figures are small enough that swings like this can occur.

Thanks. Does it mean for every copy sold on clerks there is one crank sold?

No.

The top 5 index only relates to titles of the same format. There is no relation to the 100 index for HD-DVD and the 100 index for BD. Since the SI number improved for HD-DVD, it is likely that more than 1 copy of Clerks 2 sold for every 1 copy of Crank, during that week.

Gizmodo:



Both.

It's whether and when this changes that is the debate.

Gary

Arguably, it changed last week, with HD DVD selling more content then BD.

Thanks. Does it mean for every copy sold on clerks there is one crank sold?

NO, they are relative percentages. The highest selling title is considered 100%, and all other titles are given a percentile number depending on what fraction of the top title's units the rest of them sold. If a title sold half as many titles as the top title, it would be 50%.

At least that is what I get from it. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.

No doubt.

There is something wrong with those numbers. No way the SI could change 10 points in one week, particularly with BD losing 10%.

They must be doing readjustments or something. Well it could happen if HD DVD actually substantially outsold Blu-ray in the last week. That would still be consistent with Blu-ray still leading year to date, but at a lower spread and HD DVD raising its SI lead.

It would seem to have to be a large HD DVD sales lead for the last week for that to happen.

Maybe the HD A2 sales are kicking in? :rolleyes:

Somehow I don't think all those "mainstream" news sites and blogs that picked up the earlier numbers would somehow post a revision of their sensational story saying that HD-DVD gained some back. :rolleyes:

Unfortunately for HD DVD, I think you're right.

The fact that the media picked up and ran with this this week is a lucky break for BD.

This is hilarious, now lets get all of the BD shills back on here that swore there was "no looking back" and that the numbers this week would show that HD-DVD was on its way to an early death by May.

"Sketcha?"

"Present"

Well it could happen if HD DVD actually substantially outsold Blu-ray in the last week. That would still be consistent with Blu-ray still leading year to date, but at a lower spread and HD DVD raising its SI lead.

It would seem to have to be a large HD DVD sales lead for the last week for that to happen.

Maybe the HD A2 sales are kicking in? :rolleyes:

Yes, but here's my problem. SI for HD and BD were almost equal. Then one weeks sale lowers the BD (relative to HD) by 10%. So in one week, HD is supposed to have sold nearly 10% of the total SI of BD, or HD for that matter. It had to be a damn good week.

Somebody who is good at math could probably look at all those ratios, and derive absolute figures for them. Anyone up for the challenge? Anthony, you're a math man aren't you?

Arguably, it changed last week, with HD DVD selling more content then BD.

Arguably? No, HD-DVD definately outsold BD last week and gained ground on both the SI and YTD ratios.

Week ended Jan 14
YTD: BD 100.00, HD 38.36
SI: BD 92.40, HD 100.00

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

A 10% gain in SI sales would be about what, about 200,000 units or so? Didn't HD DVD PRG state 1.6 million in disc units last year.

If Toshiba sold 50,000 HD A2 units and the attach rate was 2x and some other HD DVD owners starting buying some titles again, I guess it could be possible. but I'm very skeptical since we haven't seen a strong Amazon or DVD empire surge as well.

But then again, if those Amazon and DVD empire numbers are a two week lagging indicator?

I don't know, I'm so confused now. How could HD DVD close the gap so quickly again? :confused:

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Interesting. I wonder where that swing in sales occured? It wasn't at Amazon or DVD Empire.

Gary

I'm getting a visual:

Brianmonkey and Sketcha are shuffling papers, calling sources checking the stock market and crying fowl while whipping beads of sweat off there foreheads! The data must be wrong!

The 2 most obnoxious people in this thread imo. Continuously patting each other on the back as if they single handedly won the war themselves.

I can't wait to hear the spin they give this. I'm sure it'll be somewhere along the lines of "its only 1 weeks data, we've got 2 weeks data on our side!!"

Wow!

Good thing I can honestly say I got to this post long after several gracious posts of my own.

Simply put, your projection above, of my integrity has proven wrong.

I think this data shows how little hi-def media is selling since inception as the data changed 6-7 points per week based on 1-2 new movies being released.

Better news this week for the HD DVD fans I guess.

Somehow I don't think all those "mainstream" news sites and blogs that picked up the earlier numbers would somehow post a revision of their sensational story saying that HD-DVD gained some back. :rolleyes:

No, you're right... but that's just how it is; it's no one way street, believe me.

Everyone remember the Rob Enderle stir of just two months ago? That guy is a total moron, and we were bogged down in many a debate on this site circling his sweeping (and unenlightened) commentary.

Every single news site you could mention though, ran that story.

So it's the same here with the BD 'catch-up,' no one ever runs the less sensational "back to reality" stories that follow the original.

Things will just go back to normal silently until the next *big* story breaks on either side of the aisle. For what it's worth, things like this don't hold the publics attention for more than two minutes anyway.

I think this data shows how little hi-def media is selling since inception as the data changed 6-7 points per week based on 1-2 new movies being released.


What was released?

The Departed went pre-order for both, with HD DVD getting a big initial pop. Pre-orders don't count, do they?

Gary

This thread is a roller coaster ride. I never would have expected HD DVD to outsell BD last week. I'm still trying to figure out how this happened. Maybe the effect of those new HD A2 owners looking at the 150 or so existing titles and buying them to go with their shiny low mileage HD DVD players?

Or the Toshiba Superbowl promotion? Or Circuit City starting to carry HD DVD players? Or the arrival or the HD XA2? Or maybe the volumes are so slow that any good title skews the data.

The fact that no new title surged upward in the rankings might indicate that the sales rise was broad based among the titles and consistent with new owners buying titles spread among the existing HD DVD releases.

Anybody see any rise in the older HD DVD titles last week like Batman begins and Serenity?

Ah, damage control in full effect. Are you denying that it looks like one mediocre HD-DVD title was able to close the gap in one week with BD by a substantial amount?

This only illustrates my point that I got to SteroMadMan's post about me after I had already made some gracious responses. I just got to the computer and made the mistake of going down the list one by one, rather than reading ahead.

When I made the response that you are quoting, I hadn't yet read the "bad news."

"Damage control" was unintended.

Still wiping the egg off...

Well it could happen if HD DVD actually substantially outsold Blu-ray in the last week. That would still be consistent with Blu-ray still leading year to date, but at a lower spread and HD DVD raising its SI lead.


Wierd numbers.

YTD BD dropped from 2.6:1 to 2:1 sales. And lost 10 points on the SI?!

Gary

Nah, he's not in damage control yet. He is reading the older post first, and catching up. He hasn't got to the part where HD DVD outsold BD last week yet. It's kind of fun watching him work his way there. He's mosing along, replying as if BD is trending toward a certain victory, unaware of the new info.

Shout-out to Scketcha when you finally read this :)

LMAO!!! :D :D :D

You called it! Nice work!

And I'm still going. I bet you are cracking up right now at all the posts I just made prior to this one. Hope I am at least getting some sort of credit for my admissions.

I guess I'll see here in a bit. You guys need to slow down so I can catch up.

See ya' in a bit, hopefully.

Then the data is wrong on that account, because it shows 2:1 for BD.

So, somehow BD went from 2.6:1 to 2:1 in sales, but HD DVD outsold BD enough to drag back the SI?!

That makes no sense.

The math is a little obtuse, but what it would mean is that basically *whatever* happened last year in terms of sales... is essentially irrelevant compared to the volumes that are selling in the 'second stage' of the format war in 07.

Yes, but here's my problem. SI for HD and BD were almost equal. Then one weeks sale lowers the BD (relative to HD) by 10%. So in one week, HD is supposed to have sold nearly 10% of the total SI of BD, or HD for that matter. It had to be a damn good week.

Somebody who is good at math could probably look at all those ratios, and derive absolute figures for them. Anyone up for the challenge? Anthony, you're a math man aren't you?

I already did this previously, when Sony gained ground by 7% in one week, it only amounted to BD selling around 100,000 more discs in a week, using the best volume estimates we cancome up with. So a 10% swing back in the other direction for SI, would mean a ballpark of 150,000 more sales.

Personally, I think it is great that either HD format are selling this many units on a weekly basis.

Why do you believe it is possible for BD to outsell HD-DVD by 100,000 units on a week when the best release is Crank (not exactly the best film IMO), but refuse to believe HD-DVD can accomplish a similar feat in a week where Clerks 2, Mummy Returns, and Lucky # Slevin (all better than Crank IMO) are released?

Again, I think this is antecdotal evidence that the number of PS3's + standalones being used to watch movies is roughly equal to the number of 360 addons + standalones.

Wow!

Good thing I can honestly say I got to this post long after several gracious posts of my own.

Simply put, your projection above, of my integrity has proven wrong.

Just because you can act rational, doesn't mean you do so 100% of the time. As proven by your actions in this thread :)

Then the data is wrong on that account, because it shows 2:1 for BD.

So, somehow BD went from 2.6:1 to 2:1 in sales, but HD DVD outsold BD enough to drag back the SI?!

That makes no sense.

It doesn't make sense to me either. One week lead by HD DVD shouldn't be enough to cause a 10% swing in SI sells. But if it were, the YTD change should show a much larger effect then what it did.

Basically, the sale of that week caused a pro HD change of 10% on the SI sales, but only 20% on the YTD sales. From that, we could gleam that SI is only 2X as large as YTD.

Further, a big surge like that should be found on amazon or DVD empire.

Further, we should see one or two big titles out that would cause such a surge, or something to indicate why a big surge occured.

It just doesn't make sense, really. I want to believe it's true, but it doesn't make sense.

A 10% gain in SI sales would be about what, about 200,000 units or so? Didn't HD DVD PRG state 1.6 million in disc units last year.

If Toshiba sold 50,000 HD A2 units and the attach rate was 2x and some other HD DVD owners starting buying some titles again, I guess it could be possible. but I'm very skeptical since we haven't seen a strong Amazon or DVD empire surge as well.

But then again, if those Amazon and DVD empire numbers are a two week lagging indicator?

I don't know, I'm so confused now. How could HD DVD close the gap so quickly again? Interesting. I wonder where that swing in sales occured? It wasn't at Amazon or DVD Empire.

Gary Well it may not have been at DVD empire as we have comparable sales ratios between the formats there.

For Amazon, which has vastly more volume, we don't have a sales ratio, we only have the rankings baskets. Maybe a lot of the older titles in the top 1000 each gained a little. Maybe if we looked at the hdgamedb site for all teh older HD DVD titles for 14 days we could see a spike?

On other explanation, and maybe the simplest is that the Amazon stats we have access to lag player sales by a couple weeks as new player owners first buy at B&M stores because they want content , NOW dammit!!!, to play on their shiny new toys. So the Nielson numbers may be quicker in picking up the impact of new player sales, than our online tracking sites.

But for the above idea to be true, that would mean a hell of a lot of new HD DVD players were sold last week. That's a lot of HD A2s to make a swing that big. Great news for HD DVD if true, but I have my doubts.

A 10% gain in SI sales would be about what, about 200,000 units or so? Didn't HD DVD PRG state 1.6 million in disc units last year.

If Toshiba sold 50,000 HD A2 units and the attach rate was 2x and some other HD DVD owners starting buying some titles again, I guess it could be possible. but I'm very skeptical since we haven't seen a strong Amazon or DVD empire surge as well.

But then again, if those Amazon and DVD empire numbers are a two week lagging indicator?

I don't know, I'm so confused now. How could HD DVD close the gap so quickly again? :confused:

Read my previous post n this thread for an estimated number of units sold. I think it is the most accurate unit estimate available based on available information.

"Sketcha?"

"Present"

At least you own up to it. Now where's Monkey and YoYo?

Read my previous post n this thread for an estimated number of units sold. I think it is the most accurate unit estimate available based on available information. So a gain of this magnitude would be consitent with 50,000 HD A2s sold with an initial 2 x attach rate? What happened to the PS3 sales? Would the new HD A2 sales have to be greater than that if the PS3 was still selling to make up a 200,000 gap?

Any math wizes?

Pre-orders don't count, do they?

Gary
Not with VideoScan.

Why do you believe it is possible for BD to outsell HD-DVD by 100,000 units on a week when the best release is Crank (not exactly the best film IMO), but refuse to believe HD-DVD can accomplish a similar feat in a week where Clerks 2, Mummy Returns, and Lucky # Slevin (all better than Crank IMO) are released?



It's not the YTD numbers I have a problem with. The volume there is so low we should expect volatility. Its that one weeks change could have such a large effect on SI. That number should be more stable. We shouldn't see week-to-week shifts of 10%, and if we do, there should be readily available explainations.

It doesn't make sense to me either. One week lead by HD DVD shouldn't be enough to cause a 10% swing in SI sells. But if it were, the YTD change should show a much larger effect then what it did.

Basically, the sale of that week caused a pro HD change of 10% on the SI sales, but only 20% on the YTD sales. From that, we could gleam that SI is only 2X as large as YTD.

Further, a big surge like that should be found on amazon or DVD empire.

Further, we should see one or two big titles out that would cause such a surge, or something to indicate why a big surge occured.

It just doesn't make sense, really. I want to believe it's true, but it doesn't make sense.

Why does everyone insist on referencing Amazon or DVD Empire. Sales at B&M's like Best Buy, Target, Circuit City, Meijers, Frys, etc. are going to far out weigh DVD Empire and Amazon.

Just because you can act rational, doesn't mean you do so 100% of the time. As proven by your actions in this thread :)
Can't argue.

Got carried away. I felt it happening and, if you care to look back severl pages, you would notice a slight, but noticeable swing back to the rational. Too little, too late, I guess.

No, I am not imune to irrational exuberance. It's certainly sobering.

Actually, it's kind of funny. Plaz and I had a PM discussion about this between last night and this morning.


EDIT: Oh, and thank you for giving me the credit of at least acting rational some time. :)

It's not the YTD numbers I have a problem with. The volume there is so low we should expect volatility. Its that one weeks change could have such a large effect on SI. That number should be more stable. We shouldn't see week-to-week shifts of 10%, and if we do, there should be readily available explainations.

Again, I think that 2007 volumes just simply demolish their equivalent 2006 volumes. In that sense these numbers can line up.

The fact of the matter is though, that if BD vs HD sales figures are to remain an ingrained aspect of the AVS culture (which seems to be the case), then we need to pick a tool we can all agree on to form the cornerstone of debates on the matter.

Nielsen/Videoscan is as good as any, and better than most.

So I say we just use this as the 'official' metric from here on out, and so long as they are consistent in their methods, whether right or wrong, it will always be apples to apples. As volumes increase, inconsistencies should be hammered out.

Amazon and DVDEmpire can still make useful secondary data points to reference the Nielsen numbers against, since we know online is big in this war, but everything else aside I say we just adopt the Nielsen as the banner metric.

Again, I think this is antecdotal evidence that the number of PS3's + standalones being used to watch movies is roughly equal to the number of 360 addons + standalones.

This might very well be correct.

So then the question becomes will the number of monthly PS3s being added AND being used for movie watching out pace the number of standalone and xbox add ons being added?

Why does everyone insist on referencing Amazon or DVD Empire. Sales at B&M's like Best Buy, Target, Circuit City, Meijers, Frys, etc. are going to far out weigh DVD Empire and Amazon.

Because that is the data we have access to. Videoscan is the best indicator, but that doesn't make it perfect. I would have more confidence in the videoscan numbers if it were backed up by those other sources, rather than refuted by them.

It's not the YTD numbers I have a problem with. The volume there is so low we should expect volatility. Its that one weeks change could have such a large effect on SI. That number should be more stable. We shouldn't see week-to-week shifts of 10%, and if we do, there should be readily available explainations.

I was wondering about that too.

All I could figure is that actual sales are extremely low, but are they THAT low?

Not saying they're wrong Stero, just a bit wierd from a statistical standpoint.

Hard to keep up guys, 75 posts in the last hour here! :)

Somebody who is good at math could probably look at all those ratios, and derive absolute figures for them. Anyone up for the challenge? Anthony, you're a math man aren't you?

Nope. It would take someone who is good at metaphysics to divine volume from percentages.

It's not the YTD numbers I have a problem with. The volume there is so low we should expect volatility. Its that one weeks change could have such a large effect on SI. That number should be more stable. We shouldn't see week-to-week shifts of 10%, and if we do, there should be readily available explainations.

The SI volume is low too. In 2006, HD-DVD and BD combined sold fewer than 3 million discs. YTD there have probably been 500k to 750k combined sales. This means that in three weeks, the two formats combined have sold nearly 25% of all last years volumes. This means we will be seeing big jumps in YTD and SI until the combined units get above 10 million units, assuming sales continue at the same rate without increasing.

Again, I think that 2007 volumes just simply demolish their equivalent 2006 volumes. In that sense these numbers can line up.

The fact of the matter is though, that if BD vs HD sales figures are to remain an ingrained aspect of the AVS culture (which seems to be the case), then we need to pick a tool we can all agree on to form the cornerstone of debates on the matter.

Nielsen/Videoscan is as good as any, and better than most.

So I say we just use this as the 'official' metric from here on out, and so long as they are consistent in their methods, whether right or wrong, it will always be apples to apples. As volumes increase, inconsistencies should be hammered out.

Amazon and DVDEmpire can still make useful secondary data points to reference the Nielsen numbers against, since we know online is big in this war, but everything else aside I say we just adopt the Nielsen as the banner metric.

I would think December 06 would have more sales than January 06, for obvious reasons. But maybe not.

I agree that Videoscan is the best evidence available. Now that we have that, we don't need those lessor sources. At the same time, one would expect a trend in one source to be seen in the other 2. When Videoscan is in diametric opposition to the other sources, it should be looked into in my opinion.

Why does everyone insist on referencing Amazon or DVD Empire. Sales at B&M's like Best Buy, Target, Circuit City, Meijers, Frys, etc. are going to far out weigh DVD Empire and Amazon. Its because we don't have access to the B& M numbers and the oneline numbers we do have access to tend to match those B&M sales numbers over time and show the same trends. :D

Because that is the data we have access to. Videoscan is the best indicator, but that doesn't make it perfect. I would have more confidence in the videoscan numbers if it were backed up by those other sources, rather than refuted by them.

Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets, Amazon and DVD Empire dosen't even represent 1%, so their numbers are obviously not as accurate as Videoscan.

I still want to see units sold. Would make things much easier, but of course less fun :)

Can't argue.

Got carried away. I felt it happening and, if you care to look back severl pages, you would notice a slight, but noticeable swing back to the rational. Too little, too late, I guess.

No, I am not imune to irrational exuberance. It's certainly sobering.

Actually, it's kind of funny. Plaz and I had a PM discussion about this between last night and this morning.


EDIT: Oh, and thank you for giving me the credit of at least acting rational some time. :)

Well, nobody likes soar winners. Especially when they are being obtuse just for the sake of.

Just as long as the person who dishes it out can take it when its dished back. I'm more accepting of it!

Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets, Amazon and DVD Empire dosen't even represent 1%, so their numbers are obviously not as accurate as Videoscan. Amazon's online sales for both books and DVDs are a much higher percentage than that.

I was reading on DVD Talk that there was a BD "buy 1 get 1 deal" at Best Buy during the week of 1/14-1/21/07. I raise this mostly to point out that such sales incentives can have an impact on a week's results that may contribute to a misleading trend. Oddly In this case HD seems to have improved during this week in spite of this offering, presumably due in part to better new releases that week.

"Best Buy Jan 14-20

Blu-Ray:
Buy 1, Get 1 Free This Week - Offer Good only on these 7 Titles:

$24.99 Each:
House of Flying Daggers
Kung Fu Hustle
Black Hawk Down

$29.99 Each:
Monster House
Click
Talladega Nights: Ballad Of Ricky Bobby
Underworld: Evolution"

I don't know to what extent these deals can have an impact, I just figure they should be considered if folks are going to analyze this stuff each week.

Well it may not have been at DVD empire as we have comparable sales ratios between the formats there.

For Amazon, which has vastly more volume, we don't have a sales ratio, we only have the rankings baskets. Maybe a lot of the older titles in the top 1000 each gained a little. Maybe if we looked at the hdgamedb site for all teh older HD DVD titles for 14 days we could see a spike?


I did, BD first passed HD DVD on Amazon as of Jan 21. It has stayed ahead since.

Gary

Amazon's online sales for both books and DVDs are a much higher percentage than that.

no Amazon is only one retail outlet of thousands, so it is less than 1% of retail outlets. Videoscan covers about 66% of retail outlets.

Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets, Amazon and DVD Empire dosen't even represent 1%, so their numbers are obviously not as accurate as Videoscan.

Less than 1% of retailers, not less than 1% of overall disc sales, which is what the data is measuring.

Gary

I don't know to what extent these deals can have an impact, I just figure they should be considered if folks are going to analyze this stuff each week.

Sure, offers like that can *definitely* have an impact, but I don't think their effects are paradigm-shifting. Consider that the only title that made the Top 5 from that offer list was Blackhawk Down, and frankly... Blackhawk is one of the best BD performers week in and week out. In fact I believe it is the single most widely owned BD on this forum, from the polls conducted here.

I still want to see units sold. Would make things much easier, but of course less fun :) Videoscan and other reporting outlets deliberately do not publish those sales volumes because no one wants them to for competitive reasons (too easy to multiply sold x price = sales) Better to give out dollar amounts only when you want to from the studio viewpoint. Pretty much the sme for a lot of published retail stats.

People here are underestimating how many HD-DVD and Blu-ray players came on the market in late Nov/Dec. Prior to that point, the number of HD-DVD units was close to 50-70k and the number of Blu-ray players was much lower than that. Then you need to add the liquations of the 1st generation HD-DVD players, the A2's, and the add-ons. I think it's pretty arguable the number of players for the 21st week was 200kish for HD-DVD. On the blu-ray side, of course, you have the PS3 coming on line.

Hence, I think probably each weeks sales equals Nov sales at this point. The volume is probably pretty darn large.

As I recall, HD DVD had more releases that week than Blu-Ray:

Blu-Ray

* Employee of the Month (Lionsgate)
* GoodFellas (Warner)
* Gridiron Gang (Sony)
* Resident Evil: Apocalypse (Sony)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)

HD DVD

* Clerks II (Weinstein)
* Lucky Number Slevin (Weinstein)
* The Mummy Returns (Universal)
* Poseidon (Warner)
* Pulse (Weinstein)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)
* The Sting (Universal

Its quite obvious why HD DVD outsold Blu-Ray this week ...no worthwhile content on the Blu-Ray side. Now if content is key ...HD DVD is in for a whole lot of hurting soon

Well, nobody likes soar winners. Especially when they are being obtuse just for the sake of.

Just as long as the person who dishes it out can take it when its dished back. I'm more accepting of it!

Ironically you are beginning to go down that path yourself. How much more would you like to say on the subject?

As far as taking it, of course you're right. I would expect no less if the situation were reversed.

Also, may I again remind you that several HD DVD campers jumped to conclusions before I did. Fortunately for them, they came around before I was forced to.

It looks like hmurchison was right, after all to tell jmpage2 to "hang in there."

This thread is too funny.

I don't have a mirror, yet I can feel the abrasions from the rag wiping my face. Is there still egg on it?

(still wiping)

Less than 1% of retailers, not less than 1% of overall disc sales, which is what the data is measuring.

Gary Amazon sells a lot more than any usual retail outlet.

IIRC , its at least 5% and maybe even 10% of all DVD sales in the US. Its a surprisingly large number , but a bit hidden since it has to be derived by looking at their dollar volume and percentage of sales that DVD gives them.

Its a very large number and percentage though. Much more than any other online DVD retailer.

As I recall, HD DVD had more releases that week than Blu-Ray:

Blu-Ray

* Employee of the Month (Lionsgate)
* GoodFellas (Warner)
* Gridiron Gang (Sony)
* Resident Evil: Apocalypse (Sony)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)

HD DVD

* Clerks II (Weinstein)
* Lucky Number Slevin (Weinstein)
* The Mummy Returns (Universal)
* Poseidon (Warner)
* Pulse (Weinstein)
* Scooby-Doo (2002) (Warner)
* The Sting (Universal

Its quite obvious why HD DVD outsold Blu-Ray this week ...no worthwhile content on the Blu-Ray side. Now if you content is key ...HD DVD is in for a whole lot of hurting soon

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

Less than 1% of retailers, not less than 1% of overall disc sales, which is what the data is measuring.

Gary

We only know that Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets. we don't know what percentage of Hidef sales that these 66% of retail outlets represent. I was making an apples to apples comparison.

Don't take this as fact, but a few years ago, I believe Amazon sold 22% of all online DVD sales. Online sales of DVD accounted for 20-25% of all DVD sales. This would mean that Amazon accounted for 4.4-5.5% of all DVD sales. However, all I've heard the past few years is how Amazon was loosing market share. However, I don't know how much was lost to other online stores vs. B&M's. If you assume that all was lost to other online stores, then online would still account for 25% of DVD sales.

If it is similar today for hi-def formats, Amazon my represent 5% of all hi-def sales, but Videoscan obviously represents a large percentage of the 75% of sales that are B&M. It would obviously be much higher than the 5% represented by Amazon. I would say it at least represents 50%of all hi-def sales, if not more. This would make it an order of magnitude better than Amazon for determining sales trends.

People here are underestimating how many HD-DVD and Blu-ray players came on the market in late Nov/Dec. Prior to that point, the number of HD-DVD units was close to 50-70k and the number of Blu-ray players was much lower than that. Then you need to add the liquations of the 1st generation HD-DVD players, the A2's, and the add-ons. I think it's pretty arguable the number of players for the 21st week was 200kish for HD-DVD. On the blu-ray side, of course, you have the PS3 coming on line.

Hence, I think probably each weeks sales equals Nov sales at this point. The volume is probably pretty darn large.

Sounds like an old time boxing match

in this corner, in the Blue shorts, we have the PS3, who came outta nowhere to shake up things, sitting ringside are the other Blu standalones

over here in the opposing corner, in the red shorts, we have the new kid just off the boats, the new , the improved HD A2, hoping to pick right up where his slightly chunky older brother the HD A1 left off , sitting in his corner adding morale support is the Xbox HD DVD add on ......

Ding...

We only know that Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets. we don't know what percentage of Hidef sales that these 66% of retail outlets represent. I was making an apples to apples comparison.


Also, the Amazon numbers we see represent "popularity", including pre-orders. The Videoscan numbers represent actual sales, which don't occur until release day.

So, the Amazon numbers may foreshadow the future results. But, the two are apples and oranges for a given week.

Gary

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

Goodfella is a nonexclusive catalog title ...you know new titles always outsell catalog ones. Goodfellas has already been out on the HD DVD side. Crank, which was at least 1 week old, was still the number #1 Blu-Ray title with these new releases. Thats how bad these new releases were.

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

Preorders don't really get factored into Videoscan numbers at all. I don't think I've been into a retail store that allows me to preorder DVD titles. Videoscan works by counting barcode scans. Online retailers don't scan barcodes, so online sales (and preorders) don't count towards the Videoscan numbers. Videoscan numbers are actual customers, walking into a Best Buy, and paying for the movie at checkout. There could be a few small specialty B&M's that do preorders, and finish the transaction with a barcode scan when the items arrive, but I think they would be few and far between.

That makes sense (except claiming Goodfellas isn't worthwhile content on the BD side). I guess pre-orders get booked as sales on release day?

Then it all makes sense. There was a month or more of backed-up sales that got pumped into that week.

It also explains the previous swings too. It's not strictly sales for a week. But, sales that are booked for the week (actual sales in the week + pre-orders on release day).

Wow, there is going to be a lot of bouncing around going forward.

Gary

I don't know, that's kind of how I had assumed it worked. Pre-order get counted at the point of sell, not upon ordering. So for the first two weeks, when BD was leading, I assumed that was going on. And now, I also assume it's going on.

I'm still puzzled by all of this.

We only know that Videoscan represents 66% of retail outlets. we don't know what percentage of Hidef sales that these 66% of retail outlets represent. I was making an apples to apples comparison.

Don't take this as fact, but a few years ago, I believe Amazon sold 22% of all online DVD sales. Online sales of DVD accounted for 20-25% of all DVD sales. This would mean that Amazon accounted for 4.4-5.5% of all DVD sales. However, all I've heard the past few years is how Amazon was loosing market share. However, I don't know how much was lost to other online stores vs. B&M's. If you assume that all was lost to other online stores, then online would still account for 25% of DVD sales.

If it is similar today for hi-def formats, Amazon my represent 5% of all hi-def sales, but Videoscan obviously represents a large percentage of the 75% of sales that are B&M. It would obviously be much higher than the 5% represented by Amazon. I would say it at least represents 50%of all hi-def sales, if not more. This would make it an order of magnitude better than Amazon for determining sales trends. Kinda my rrecollection too, except I think Amazons % of DVD sales actually went up and were a bright light for them.

If Amazon's sales are representative of B&M in the long term, and I think they aer (probably lagging) tehn a 5-10% sample of all DVD sales in our tracking sites is a huge sample size and should overall give equal data. It probably lags the B&M stuff for initial player attached movie sales.

If this data is correct and Amazon sales are representative, but lagging, then we should see a rise in the Amazon stats for HD DVD within a few days certainly within a few weeks.

I'm still puzzled by all of this.

Me too.

It seem that if HD DVD could get 10 points or so of SI, then it should have gained much more YTD.

No?

Sounds like an old time boxing match

in this corner, in the Blue shorts, we have the PS3, who came outta nowhere to shake up things, sitting ringside are the other Blu standalones


Except the only thing the PS3 has beat down so far is some folks' credibility.

All the credit for HD DVD's supposed beating was laid at the feet of the PS3.

In the new HD era, Amazon *has* to be an outsized portion of the sales percentage.

I'm still of the opinion that Nielsen is the way to go from here on out, but when Amazon is the singular measure used up until now, when Amazon offers free shipping, when they offer the best prices, when they offer superior selection, and when they are discussed daily on sites such as these... I think the early adopters - which tend to be more educated than most - would work to give Amazon a greater percentage of HD sales than whatever their historical average for SD DVD is.

Maybe Amazon's role as a percentage of sales changed too in the post-November 06 era, but I still feel that they are a significant presence.

Except the only thing the PS3 has beat down so far is some folks' credibility.

All the credit for HD DVD's supposed beating was laid at the feet of the PS3.

Whether BD is winning or losing at any given moment, you'd be daft to think that the PS3 is not the present champion of the format.

I'm still puzzled by all of this.

Me too.


Sketcha, in your case, I think it's a stroke.

Things happen on the release schedules for both sides every week. Weekly stats will bounce around depending what's selling. Per chance might this have an effect on the next numbers ??
Debuting on DVD and
Blu-ray disc, the psychological thriller from Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF), the
premier independent filmed entertainment studio, and Twisted Pictures sold
1.6 million units its first day and finished the week in the top spot with
2.5 million units sold. Also, according to Rentrak Home Essentials, SAW III
Blu-Ray disc is the largest and most successful Blu-Ray debut to date.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-01-2007/0004518543&EDATE=

b2b

In the new HD era, Amazon *has* to be an outsized portion of the sales percentage.

I'm still of the opinion that Nielsen is the way to go from here on out, but when Amazon is the singular measure used up until now, when Amazon offers free shipping, when they offer the best prices, when they offer superior selection, and when they are discussed daily on sites such as these... I think the early adopters - which tend to be more educated than most - would work to give Amazon a greater percentage of HD sales than whatever their historical average for SD DVD is.

Maybe Amazon's role as a percentage of sales changed too in the post-November 06 era, but I still feel that they are a significant presence.



Whether BD is winning or losing at any given moment, you'd be daft to think that the PS3 is not the present champion of the format.

I don't think Amazon was that big of a factor in Nov/Dec because of Buy's $10 off $30 and $20 off $50. Real savvy buyers leaped on this deals. I will also point out some of my family memebers DVD buying habits. They have widescreen TV's and DVD players, but they don't have internet connections. No online sales there even though they know they are cheaper.

Me too.

It seem that if HD DVD could get 10 points or so of SI, then it should have gained much more YTD.

No?

I guess I could see it if a huge percentage of BD sales occured in January. Of course with the whole PS3 hiding under the Christmas Tree effect, this could certainly be the case, I don't know.

If it is the case, then it even more illustrates how fast BD caught up if it were all in January.

Of course the thing that remains to be seen is whether or not PS3 owners, and BD standalone owners continue to purchase with the consistency that HD DVD owners have.

Whether BD is winning or losing at any given moment, you'd be daft to think that the PS3 is not the present champion of the format.

The PS3 is definitely the life support system for BD right now. That would entitle it to be crowned champion I suppose.

Things happen on the release schedules for both sides every week. Weekly stats will bounce around depending what's selling. b2b

I don't know.... did that chart that Fox put out indicate that HD DVD would outsell BD last week? :p

Sketcha, in your case, I think it's a stroke.

Well for that I'm not signing your petition, then. :p

Alright then, Mr. Smarty Pants, what's your answer?

And don't you come up with a good one either! I don't need that right now. :)

I don't know.... did that chart that Fox put out indicate that HD DVD would outsell BD last week? :p

Fox actually made some rather ludicrous claims that got panned pretty hard here, and justifiably so.

If memory of what they said is correct it was something like doubling sales of BD discs every single month in 2007 while HD-DVD sales stayed flat.

Things happen on the release schedules for both sides every week. Weekly stats will bounce around depending what's selling. Per chance might this have an effect on the next numbers ??


http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/02-01-2007/0004518543&EDATE=

b2b

I think they might just a little:D

1/23 Blu-ray

Saw 2
Saw 3
Chicago
Alien Vs. Predator
The Guardian
Black Rain
We Were Soldiers
Hitchhiker's Guide To the Galaxy
The Manchurian Candidate
Men of Honor
Courage Under Fire
Casanova

1/23 HD-DVD

Brokeback Mountain
Black Rain
Alice Cooper
Toto

Fox actually made some rather ludicrous claims that got panned pretty hard here, and justifiably so.

If memory of what they said is correct it was something like doubling sales of BD discs every single month in 2007 while HD-DVD sales stayed flat. I have been told by three seperate people at that event, that when that slide went up, a lot of people in the audiance openly laughed, it seemed so absurd.

Not so much the increase in BD sales, but the flat HD DVD sales assumption.

I think they might just a little:D

1/23 Blu-ray

Saw 2
Saw 3
Chicago
Alien Vs. Predator
The Guardian
Black Rain
We Were Soldiers
Hitchhiker's Guide To the Galaxy
The Manchurian Candidate
Men of Honor
Courage Under Fire
Casanova

1/23 HD-DVD

Brokeback Mountain
Black Rain
Alice Cooper
Toto

LOL, yeah, we're (HD DVD) gonna get killed that week.

I think they might just a little:D

1/23 Blu-ray

Saw 2
Saw 3
Chicago
Alien Vs. Predator
The Guardian
Black Rain
We Were Soldiers
Hitchhiker's Guide To the Galaxy
The Manchurian Candidate
Men of Honor
Courage Under Fire
Casanova

1/23 HD-DVD

Brokeback Mountain
Black Rain
Alice Cooper
Toto

You underestimate Toto! :D

You underestimate Toto! :D

You type faster than I do. :D

Never underestimate the power of Toto!...

nor the Schwartz!

You underestimate Toto! :D

or Brokeback Mountain ...it will bring the week win for HD DVD!

You underestimate Toto! :D


Perhaps! :)

Me too.

It seem that if HD DVD could get 10 points or so of SI, then it should have gained much more YTD.

No?

It indicates that a huge number of discs have sold YTD relative to the SI for both formats.

In fact, if you do the math, that one week for HD DVD must have been around 15-20% of the SI up until then!

Gary

Can you imagine how lopsided the week of Casino Royale will be? ROFL.

I don't think that most rational HD-DVD supporters don't consider content the biggest single issue right now facing the format.

The frustrating thing is that Universal/Paramount/Warner have plenty of stuff they could release that would really give HD-DVD a shot in the arm.

If anything, these new numbers show a huge connection between new release and number of discs sold. All things being equal, that means HD DVD is in for a world of pain with a barren release list through the first quarter.

It indicates that a huge number of discs have sold YTD relative to the SI for both formats.

In fact, if you do the math, that one week for HD DVD must have been around 15-20% of the SI up until then!

Gary

Yeah, that's pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking. Crazy!

Well, some of you aren't going to believe this, but my plan for the day was to put AVS aside as I am way behind in work, and yes, in part due to that fact that I obviously spent too much time here yesterday. I've already spent way more today than I wanted, but I had to take my lumps.

If anyone else feels like they need to gloat, I'll try to pick it up later so don't feel like your gloating will go unnoticed.

Try not to miss me too much today, gang. Hope you get some stuff worked out.

BD Rules! :D

Later,

Sketch

Wouldn't it be a good idea to make this a sticky? or at least a thread that just contains the sales figures week by week which can be referenced and then discussed in here?

If anything, these new numbers show a huge connection between new release and number of discs sold. All things being equal, that means HD DVD is in for a world of pain with a barren release list through the first quarter. No it may show a strong relationship to disc sales to new HD players sold.

Its a race between the X% of new PS3 owners that are using the PS3 as a Blu-ray player and the 100% of new HD A2 and HD XA2 owners.

Not to say that new releses aren't important, where my new Universal titles, danggit!

If anything, these new numbers show a huge connection between new release and number of discs sold. All things being equal, that means HD DVD is in for a world of pain with a barren release list through the first quarter.


It indicated more than just that.

It showed that the "PS3 effect" wasn't so large that it took HD DVD out of the game, and that even after the launch of the PS3, BD doesn't have a consistent lead. Some weeks HD DVD will sale more, and some BD will sale more.

Days ago people believed the format war was over, now it appears more even then before. BD has the lead, but the gap isn't wide.

Also, rightfully or wrongfully, there's a consensus building around the fact that it is the titles that are causing more sales for BD, not the hardware install base. If true, that has some implications.

Yeah, that's pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking. Crazy!

Well, some of you aren't going to believe this, but my plan for the day was to put AVS aside as I am way behind in work, and yes, in part due to that fact that I obviously spent too much time here yesterday. I've already spent way more today than I wanted, but I had to take my lumps.

If anyone else feels like they need to gloat, I'll try to pick it up later so don't feel like your gloating will go unnoticed.

Try not to miss me too much today, gang. Hope you get some stuff worked out.

BD Rules! :D

Later,

Sketch Me too :D

No it may show a strong relationship to disc sales to new HD players sold.

Its a race between the X% of new PS3 owners that are using the PS3 as a Blu-ray player and the 100% of new HD A2 and HD XA2 owners.

Not to say that new releses aren't important, where my new Universal titles, danggit!

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. While collectors methodically peruse release lists and pre-order to stock their large libraries, there is nothing to show that purchases for most consumers are anything other than impulse buys.

A rack full of shiny new BR releases and a smaller HD-DVD rack of mostly catalog titles isn't going to appeal as strongly to that type of buyer in my opinion.

Yeah, that's pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking. Crazy!

Well, some of you aren't going to believe this, but my plan for the day was to put AVS aside as I am way behind in work, and yes, in part due to that fact that I obviously spent too much time here yesterday. I've already spent way more today than I wanted, but I had to take my lumps.

If anyone else feels like they need to gloat, I'll try to pick it up later so don't feel like your gloating will go unnoticed.

Try not to miss me too much today, gang. Hope you get some stuff worked out.

BD Rules! :D

Later,

Sketch

FWIW I think you have handled this well, and in fact probably conceded too much. But you earn respect for having an attitude like this.

No it may show a strong relationship to disc sales to new HD players sold.

Its a race between the X% of new PS3 owners that are using the PS3 as a Blu-ray player and the 100% of new HD A2 and HD XA2 owners.

Not to say that new releses aren't important, where my new Universal titles, danggit!

Agreed. New titles will help, but the PS3 owners who have purchased these titles throughout the Christmas season need to continue at the same pace as we know that 100% of the HD DVD buyers are buying movies.

Interesting stuff indeed.

It indicated more than just that.

It showed that the "PS3 effect" wasn't so large that it took HD DVD out of the game, and that even after the launch of the PS3, BD doesn't have a consistent lead. Some weeks HD DVD will sale more, and some BD will sale more.

Days ago people believed the format war was over, now it appears more even then before. BD has the lead, but the gap isn't wide.

Also, rightfully or wrongfully, there's a consensus building around the fact that it is the titles that are causing more sales for BD, not the hardware install base. If true, that has some implications.

On paper this is not even a war. BD should be easily taking this. I have a tendency to root for the underdog though so (while the end of the format battle will be good for all of us) this does keep me coming to the forum to keep track of the trends, etc.

Let's compare the numbers to the number of releases:

YTD

Percentage of market (Percentage of releases)

01/07
Blu-ray: 100 (100)
HD DVD: 47.14 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 100 (100)
HD DVD: 38.36 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 100 (41.6)
HD DVD: 50.51 (58.3)

I'm sure you could find a linear (or quadratic, if you love math) relation between the two. Anyone want to extrapolate the data based on release percentages?

01/28
Blu-ray: ? (85.7)
HD DVD: ? (14.3)

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. While collectors methodically peruse release lists and pre-order to stock their large libraries, there is nothing to show that purchases for most consumers are anything other than impulse buys.

A rack full of shiny new BR releases and a smaller HD-DVD rack of mostly catalog titles isn't going to appeal as strongly to that type of buyer in my opinion.


To a new HD DVD or PS3 owner, the entire rack of titles looks new to them. 150 -200 titles available on either side is starting to be a lot of movies to watch in one sitting/ ;)

If there is even the slightest bit of truth to any of the numbers, then they illustrate that the sales of both formats are really very, very low, as evidenced by the high volatility of the comparative numbers.

That may seem obvious, but it adds credence to the beliefs of some of us that we have a very long way until real hi-def disc adoption becomes widespread folks. There is no end to the format war in sight, and indeed, the real achievement will be to make the numbers look significant vs DVD.

This could also point that not as many as some would like to think are buying BD for PS3. The installed PS3 base is much higher than HD DVD and the actual sales volumes must be fairly close to allow swings like this :)

FWIW I think you have handled this well, and in fact probably conceded too much. But you earn respect for having an attitude like this.

Got another PM from Plaz right as I signed off. Just finished my response, so I had to check in one more time. Can someone say "addiction?"


Thanks, skogan.

And, don't worry. I'm biding my time. ;)

Later

The most interesting week for now will be when the Departed is released on both formats. It'll be the only HD-DVD new release up against 12 mainly catalogue BD releases. If HD-DVD even comes close to the BD figures for that week, i think it would show that HD-DVD is holding it's own pretty well. The Casino Royale week will be a huge win for BD but it will be interesting to see how things go from there, whether it will be a spike or if it brings in new buyers on a consistent basis after that.

1/23 HD-DVD

Brokeback Mountain
Black Rain
Alice Cooper
Toto
I've had Alice Cooper and Toto on BD for a long time now and I got Black Rain on street date, on BD as well. That leaves Brokeback Mountain... (nope, not going there, I have nothing interesting to say).

I agree about the addictive nature of this avsforum site. I do have to get some work done...

I have updated the numbers to reflect percentage of market (not normalized to 100):

YTD: Percentage of Market (Percentage of Releases)

01/07
Blu-ray: 67.96 (100)
HD DVD: 32.04 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 72.28 (100)
HD DVD: 27.72 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 66.44 (41.6)
HD DVD: 33.56 (58.3)

The formula I used was 10,000/(100+H)=B where B=% of BD and H=% of HD.

Maybe the effect of those new HD A2 owners looking at the 150 or so existing titles and buying them to go with their shiny low mileage HD DVD players?

Or the Toshiba Superbowl promotion? Or Circuit City starting to carry HD DVD players? Or the arrival or the HD XA2? Or maybe the volumes are so slow that any good title skews the data.

The fact that no new title surged upward in the rankings might indicate that the sales rise was broad based among the titles and consistent with new owners buying titles spread among the existing HD DVD releases.

Anybody see any rise in the older HD DVD titles last week like Batman begins and Serenity?

My thinking exactly! I think the shift can only be attributed to the A2s, Xa2s, and add-ons moving well. To me, the fact that buyers at Amazon are getting the Toshiba units over most other DVD players (including some of the Oppo units) says a lot.

The XA2 rank at Amazon is a bit of a surprise to me, since more expensive players wouldn't normally be expected to sell that well. It has a blu-ray standalone type price, and it is still in sixteenth place (last time I checked).

Maybe HD DVD folk just seem to blab too much about how good their players are. I know I do.

Not true anymore. There in my local Circuit CIty right now. They also now have them on their online store.

Issue was resolved before the HD A2s shipped. Toshiba is buying endcap space in selected markets now.

http://www.circuitcity.com/ccd/Search.do?c=1&context=&keyword=HD+A2&searchSection=All&go.x=18&go.y=5


Ah, thank you for the correction. I had missed that development. I stand reproved. :o

The PS3 has sold about 150,000 units year to date in Japan... that's it.

I expect similar numbers from North America NPD. Fractionize those numbers to compensate for the fact that not every PS3 owner is interested at all in Blu Ray movies, and you have a relevant BD hardware adoption rate that may be outpaced by HD DVD hardware adoption right now.

Here is SI:

01/07
Blu-ray: 45.96 (100)
HD DVD: 54.04 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 48.02 (100)
HD DVD: 51.98 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 45.15 (41.6)
HD DVD: 54.85 (58.3)

These numbers make much better graphs, IMHO. At least on my Excel spreadsheet it shows more detail.

Is Digital Bits and Bill Hunt on the ball yet?

More than likely not. I get rather bothered by the lopsided reporting on this issue, it seems as if everyone has an agenda that involves a game console.

I would like a math person to solve for X for me please:

January 1 SI = X, YTD = 0
January 7 SI = .8505 YTD = .4714

On January 1st, we had an unknown SI percentage we'll lable X, and a known YTD percentage of 0%, (or 1, depending how you look at it. Bascially, the YTD sales were equal at this point) .

By January 7, we had added sales at a .47 ratio (that may need to be inverted) to arrive at a .8505 YTD ratio. Can one work backward from there to get X,(the January 1 SI number)?

I can't seem to make it work, maybe because I switch from HD DVD being 100 to BD being 100. But the basic premise is that we should be able to determine the January 1 SI number by reducing the January 7 SI number by the January 7 YTD number.

Thanks in advance to any kind soul who want's to work this out.

Here's one analysis

Let:

X - BD SI as of Jan 14
x - sales for week of Jan 21
Y - HD DVD SI as of Jan 14
y - sale for week of Jan 21

X/Y = 0.93
(X+x)/(Y+y) = 0.83

X + x = 0.83(Y + y)
X + x = 0.83Y + 0.83y
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - X (now substitute X = 0.93Y)
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - 0.93Y
x = 0.83y - 0.1Y (divide both sides by y)
x/y = 0.83 - 0.1(Y/y)

Y/y is the ratio of SI sales to one week sales for HD DVD.

x/y must be >= 0, and 0 occurs at Y/y = 8.3 (12%)

But of course, it must be more than 0. If it was 2:1 for HD DVD in that week (x/y = 0.5) then that means Y/y = 5.3 or about 18.9% of SI up until that week.

Multi-months of pre-orders are resulting in BIG numbers being dumped into the situation on release days now. And that is causing some wild changes.

Gary

Here's one analysis

Let:

X - BD SI as of Jan 14
x - sales for week of Jan 21
Y - HD DVD SI as of Jan 14
y - sale for week of Jan 21

X/Y = 0.93
(X+x)/(Y+y) = 0.83

X + x = 0.83(Y + y)
X + x = 0.83Y + 0.83y
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - X (now substitute X = 0.93Y)
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - 0.93Y
x = 0.83y - 0.1Y (divide both sides by y)
x/y = 0.83 - 0.1(Y/y)

Y/y is the ratio of SI sales to one week sales for HD DVD.

x/y must be >= 0, and 0 occurs at Y/y = 8.3 (12%)

But of course, it must be more than 0. If it was 2:1 for HD DVD in that week (x/y = 0.5) then that means Y/y = 5.3 or about 18.9% of SI up until that week.

Multi-months of pre-orders are resulting in BIG numbers being dumped into the situation on release days now. And that is causing some wild changes.

Gary

Cool. That is a big change - 18% of SI in one week?!? Thanks for that.

The PS3 is definitely the life support system for BD right now. That would entitle it to be crowned champion I suppose.
Actually, IMO it's not the PS3 at all - it the exclusive studios.

If there were no studio exclusivity, there would be far less incentive to buy the PS3 over the Toshibas or Xbox.

..as well as the untimely lack of new releases on HD DVD right now...

Cool. That is a big change - 18% of SI in one week?!? Thanks for that.

I should see if I can pop the BD number out from the previous weeks changes. I wouldn't be surprised if 70% of BD SI sales occured in January.

How else could BD have gotten to 93% of HD DVD so quickly?

For sure, the numbers now seem to be dwarfing the previous eight months. And, once again, you have to wonder how wise it was for Universal to decide to be sitting on the sidelines for the next few months given this explosion?

Actually, the Amazon numbers are now explained. I was wondering how Serenity managed to be ranking so well, so long after release. Now we know. The HD DVD numbers have popped big too.

Gary

I should see if I can pop the BD number out from the previous weeks changes. I wouldn't be surprised if 70% of BD SI sales occured in January.

How else could BD have gotten to 93% of HD DVD so quickly?

For sure, the numbers now seem to be dwarfing the previous eight months. And, once again, you have to wonder how wise it was for Universal to decide to be sitting on the sidelines for the next few months given this explosion?

Actually, the Amazon numbers are now explained. I was wondering how Serenity managed to be ranking so well, so long after release. Now we know. The HD DVD numbers have popped big too.

Gary
It seems like you should be able to take the SI ratio from January 7 and reduce it by the YTD ratio of January 7 to get the SI of January 1.

For sure, the numbers now seem to be dwarfing the previous eight months. And, once again, you have to wonder how wise it was for Universal to decide to be sitting on the sidelines for the next few months given this explosion?

Gary

Define "explosion" your quoting numbers relative HD-DVD sales, combined they aren't even a blip compared to DVD sales.

Cool. That is a big change - 18% of SI in one week?!? Thanks for that.

So this years HD A2 and PS3 battle for sales is going to make last years numbers look like a petty skirmish?

18.3 % in one week means ever month will sell about as much as last year Thats 10-12 times more than last year.

The HD DVD PRG group was saying IIRC $165 million in HD DVD sales last year and $600 million this year.

You're giving an order of magnitude of $20 million in one week? A billion this year for HD DVD sales? with Blu-ray somewhere around that? If that happens won't most everybody except Sony and Universal , maybe Fox go neutral just to try and get some of the other formats pie?

It's not the YTD numbers I have a problem with. The volume there is so low we should expect volatility. Its that one weeks change could have such a large effect on SI. That number should be more stable. We shouldn't see week-to-week shifts of 10%, and if we do, there should be readily available explainations.

wow ! Look at what I've done :eek:

I pick up Clerks II, Return Of the Mummy and Lucky Slevin and look what happens to the sales data... AVS is abuzz, HD DVD sells more than Blu Ray for the week :D
Must be good news for Blu Ray :p

This is almost akin to those who day-trade stocks or bonds against weekly data like Jobless Claims.... com'on, let some solid trend develop....

So it was you!

Define "explosion" your quoting numbers relative HD-DVD sales, combined they aren't even a blip compared to DVD sales.

Relative to HD DVD sales for nine months, 20% in one week would be an explosion.

Why do you want to bring DVD into it? Most HD DVD fans want to push a "leaving money on the table" argument to argue for studio neutrality. I guess you figure the BD studios are laughing at the HD DVD numbers.

Gary

Relative to HD DVD sales for nine months, 20% in one week would be an explosion.

Why do you want to bring DVD into it? Most HD DVD fans want to push a "leaving money on the table" argument to argue for studio neutrality. I guess you figure the BD studios are laughing at the HD DVD numbers.

Gary

I bring DVD into it, because people are acting like Universal can't afford not to go neutral. As if Hi-def was making anyone rich, even with the "explosion" of immediate post PS3 sales.

Do you really think these numbers are a surprise to any backer of either format? I'm sure they all knew PS3 would sell at least in the numbers it has over the holidays, and that would also equate to a demand for BD discs.

New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Grubert, where did you get the data? Do you have a link? On www.homemediamagazine.com there is no new digital edition, just the old one with data for the week ending January 14. Do you have a new source?

Is Digital Bits and Bill Hunt on the ball yet?

You can bet the house they won't jump on it and when they do mention it, downplay it as much as they can. Bill Hunt has been pro-BD since even before they got out of the gate.

Anyway, should we all declare victory and say R.I.P. to BR, like the BR fanboys already did with HD-DVD ? No, 'cause most of us know better than that. What is interesting is that with 5 times more BR players out there and almost no HD-DVD titles being released, HD-DVD still holds its own. If PS3s were the BR player of choice that will determine the outcome of this war, how come they are not totally crushing HD-DVD software sales week after week ?

I have been criticized many times and will be flamed again for stating that the main reason we're seeing a BR sales surge is because of the lack of games for the PS3. Unlike most AV early adopters, most people that purchase a PS3 get it for games 1st, movies 2nd (if at all for movies). It's going to take a huge number of PS3s to compete with HD-DVD sales, especially once all the good games start coming out. BR movies sales and games sales might not be mutually exclusive, but there's only so much of their budget gamers will direct towards movies. And if you think Europe, with a PS3 going for even more money than here, and BR region coding, is going to be the market that crushes HD-DVD, then you are being quite foolish.

As much as we would like to have only one format to deal with, let's be realistic : both will survive for quite a while. Sorry fanboys, it's time to accept reality and enjoy your format of choice or both. And as crazy as it might sound, I would love for both formats to coexist long enough so we get full-featured dual format players from manufacturers like Denon. And to those that say, "no way, just have one format crush the other and be done with it", why do you care ? Do you have large amounts of stock in Sony or Toshiba ? Most likely not, so your partisan attitude makes as much sense as Homeland Security blowing up the LED ads in Boston...

I bring DVD into it, because people are acting like Universal can't afford not to go neutral. As if Hi-def was making anyone rich, even with the "explosion" of immediate post PS3 sales.

Do you really think these numbers are a surprise to any backer of either format? I'm sure they all knew PS3 would sell at least in the numbers it has over the holidays, and that would also equate to a demand for BD discs.

There is revenues issues from not supporting a new format. And then there is the strategic position where a studio tries to build a new format for future revenues.

I've always argued against the "leaving money on the table" argument. As you say, the numbers are a joke for HD discs relative to DVD. But, unless they have a plan to restore flagging DVD sales, then HD discs are currently the best option stategically. Maybe downloads will be in a few years.

So, it becomes a debate about which studios are taking the strategic risk.

Gary

wow ! Look at what I've done :eek:

I pick up Clerks II, Return Of the Mummy and Lucky Slevin and look what happens to the sales data... AVS is abuzz, HD DVD sells more than Blu Ray for the week :D
Must be good news for Blu Ray :p

This is almost akin to those who day-trade stocks or bonds against weekly data like Jobless Claims.... com'on, let some solid trend develop....

This is funny cause Amazon just shipped 8 of my preorders. AND I had those titles as well.

Dude, we have saved the format !! LMAO :D

I don't know, a lot of spinning in here can't change the fact HD-DVD is taking a beating far too soon. Blu-ray has only been out for a few months and it's already holding the stick. I'm not saying one should jump ship the moment it springs a leak, too late anyway you've already spent the money, but it is sinking. And don't think there is any honor in profit wars. I'm willing to bet Toshiba is set to start producing Blu-ray players at the touch of a switch.

I don't know, a lot of spinning in here can't change the fact HD-DVD is taking a beating far too soon. Blu-ray has only been out for a few months and it's already holding the stick. I'm not saying one should jump ship the moment it springs a leak, too late anyway you've already spent the money, but it is sinking. And don't think there is any honor in profit wars. I'm willing to bet Toshiba is set to start producing Blu-ray players at the touch of a switch.

But HD DVD outsold BD the last week reported, and so it was BD that took the beating. That's the surprise. It turns out the first two weeks of January BD sold more, but by the third week HD DVD sold more, so it is too early to declare a certain trend. It is close enough that they will go back and forth, appearently.

BTW, BD was released just a couple of months after HD DVD. Unless you're counting the PS3 as the real BD release date, in which case it would only be fair to count the add-on as the real HD DVD release date.

I have been criticized many times and will be flamed again for stating that the main reason we're seeing a BR sales surge is because of the lack of games for the PS3. Unlike most AV early adopters, most people that purchase a PS3 get it for games 1st, movies 2nd (if at all for movies). It's going to take a huge number of PS3s to compete with HD-DVD sales, especially once all the good games start coming out. BR movies sales and games sales might not be mutually exclusive, but there's only so much of their budget gamers will direct towards movies. And if you think Europe, with a PS3 going for even more money than here, and BR region coding, is going to be the market that crushes HD-DVD, then you are being quite foolish.

So why don't they just buy DVD instead of BD if all they are trying to do is get some usage out of their PS3?

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.

Well then we talk to different people, because the ones I talk to say the PS3 is too expensive.

Edit: I see you limited your response to "other than the U.K.", which is really the only European folks I talk to. So my post isn't on point.

But HD DVD outsold BD the last week reported, and so it was BD that took the beating. That's the surprise. It turns out the first two weeks of January BD sold more, but by the third week HD DVD sold more, so it is too early to declare a certain trend. It is close enough that they will go back and forth, appearently.
Agreed. No spin (for the moment :) ) and too early to tell.

BTW, BD was released just a couple of months after HD DVD. Unless you're counting the PS3 as the real BD release date, in which case it would only be fair to count the add-on as the real HD DVD release date.
Can't agree with this. I think we all know, deep down or otherwise, that the PS3 was to be BD's Trojan Horse much more so than the add-on. Obviously most anyone buying add-ons could be considered HD DVD supporters, but how many of those were sold again?

I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. Do you?

Can't agree with this. I think we all know, deep down or otherwise, that the PS3 was to be BD's Trojan Horse much more so than the add-on. Obviously most anyone buying add-ons could be considered HD DVD supporters, but how many of those were sold again?

I don't think that's a fair comparison at all. Do you?

First I would point out that all of what you have just said is irrelevent to the question of "what day should be counted as the formats launch date." Yes, the PS3 was more important to BD than the add-on to the HD DVD, but no one ever said otherwise.

Appearently, we are now selling ~15% of our SI each week. That must mean we are selling a lot more now than we were at the begining of both formats lives. So my first point is, if we are asking "when should we say the formats have launched" I think the very low volume pre-add-on suggest the sales didn't really start moving until the add-on came on the scene. So if you want to say that the format didn't launch until it really started selling, for both HD DVD and BD, that wasn't until very recently. Everything prior to this was chickin feed, appearently. It wouldn't be fair to say the BD didn't lanuch until recently but HD DVD did many months ago, if your logic is that there weren't really many sells prior to the launch of the PS3. Because that was true for both formats.


Second, I think it's established that the add-on is the highest selling HD DVD player, and in fact sells more than the rest of the HD DVD players added together. Putting 2 and 2 together would lead one to believe that the add-on, while not as important to HD DVD as PS3 is to BD, is important to HD DVD. So, if one wants to pretend that BD launched when the PS3 launched, then the same should apply to HD DVD.

To sum it all up, sells in both formats have shot up recently. That has to be due to something. Whatever that something is, you can either use that as the real launch date, or you can use the actual launch date that is official. I prefer the official one.

If those numbers are correct, there is only one way to interpret them. HD DVD sold more titles last week than BD did.Sorry that I haven't kept up with all the posts in this thread over the last day (they are coming in fast). I am impressed that HD DVD did as well as it looks like they did for the week ending the 21st. Not just winning, but looking like they won by a good margin. As I said yesterday:
BTW: Looking at the titles released on 1/16/07, it wouldn't shock me if Videoscan actually shows HD DVD in the lead for the week ending 1/21/07.but it was still impressive IMO. One of the problems for the HD DVD camp is that the 16th looks like the last week where they have more and better titles (at least in my view based on box office receipts and things) until March 6th, when they have one title scheduled and Blu-ray doesn't have any.

I admit that I am confused about how HD DVD could gain 12 points YTD and 10 points Since Inception (or something like that) in one week, but I'll have to look and see if you guys figured out how that could happen.

--Darin

First I would point out that all of what you have just said is irrelevent to the question of "what day should be counted as the formats launch date." Yes, the PS3 was more important to BD than the add-on to the HD DVD, but no one ever said otherwise.

Appearently, we are now selling ~15% of our SI each week. That must mean we are selling a lot more now than we were at the begining of both formats lives. So my first point is, if we are asking "when should we say the formats have launched" I think the very low volume pre-add-on suggest the sales didn't really start moving until the add-on came on the scene. So if you want to say that the format didn't launch until it really started selling, for both HD DVD and BD, that wasn't until very recently. Everything prior to this was chickin feed, appearently. It wouldn't be fair to say the BD didn't lanuch until recently but HD DVD did many months ago, if your logic is that there weren't really many sells prior to the launch of the PS3. Because that was true for both formats.


Second, I think it's established that the add-on is the highest selling HD DVD player, and in fact sells more than the rest of the HD DVD players added together. Putting 2 and 2 together would lead one to believe that the add-on, while not as important to HD DVD as PS3 is to BD, is important to HD DVD. So, if one wants to pretend that BD launched when the PS3 launched, then the same should apply to HD DVD.

To sum it all up, sells in both formats have shot up recently. That has to be due to something. Whatever that something is, you can either use that as the real launch date, or you can use the actual launch date that is official. I prefer the official one.
I appreciate the detailed response, but you could have save yourself some time had you just answered my question about the volume of add-on sales and left it at that.

I was not aware that add-ons had sold that heavily. If that is, indeed the case, then I will stand behind your statement to HH.

Either way, it certainly does look like sales for both have really spiked. I suspect there were plenty of HD DVD players, standalones and add-ons waiting to be unwrapped just like there were PS3s.

I hope the volume increases continue. Bodes well for HD optical.

So why don't they just buy DVD instead of BD if all they are trying to do is get some usage out of their PS3?

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.

Well, we will find out soon enough, won't we ?

I am from europe and region-coding is a big factor there, 'cause enthusiasts want to be able to import our US released movies. Also, as much as you'd like to believe europeans' buying power is higher than US' buying power, it's just not the case. Cost of living there is not better than here. I take it you know so many people living in europe that you already know the market is eagerly awaiting PS3 to jump on BR movies. Ok...

My opinion is that PS3 will sell the same way there as it has been selling in other countries. And yes it will result in a surge for BR at first. But isn't what matters the long term ? Declaring an all-out winner this early on is the only thing that should be characterized as "spin", not the other way around.

Sorry that I haven't kept up with all the posts in this thread over the last day (they are coming in fast). I am impressed that HD DVD did as well as it looks like they did for the week ending the 21st. Not just winning, but looking like they won by a good margin. As I said yesterday:
but it was still impressive IMO. One of the problems for the HD DVD camp is that the 16th looks like the last week where they have more and better titles (at least in my view based on box office receipts and things) until March 6th, when they have one title scheduled and Blu-ray doesn't have any.

I admit that I am confused about how HD DVD could gain 12 points YTD and 10 points Since Inception (or something like that) in one week, but I'll have to look and see if you guys figured out how that could happen.

--Darin

I think the only way it could happen is with a massive spike in sales for both formats after the 1st of the year. So much for the January slump. Maybe that only works for expensive things like consoles. I'm guessing everyone wanted new material for their Christmas presents.

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.
French people are "desperately" seeking Xbox 360 HD DVD Player :
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29818700&start=4530

French people are "desperately" waiting for Toshiba HD-XE1:
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29828832&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=5310

Latest French HT forum’s poll results:
. HD DVD: 68%
. Blu-ray: 15%
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29841047

Main HD DVD advantages:
. price
. no region coding

Well it could happen if HD DVD actually substantially outsold Blu-ray in the last week. That would still be consistent with Blu-ray still leading year to date, but at a lower spread and HD DVD raising its SI lead.

It would seem to have to be a large HD DVD sales lead for the last week for that to happen.

Maybe the HD A2 sales are kicking in? :rolleyes:
I've been saying this all along: if you've just purchased a player, there are over 200 "new" movies for you waiting on HD DVD. ;)

Well, we will find out soon enough, won't we ?

I am from europe and region-coding is a big factor there, 'cause enthusiasts want to be able to import our US released movies. Also, as much as you'd like to believe europeans' buying power is higher than US' buying power, it's just not the case. Cost of living there is not better than here. I take it you know so many people living in europe that you already know the market is eagerly awaiting PS3 to jump on BR movies. Ok...

My opinion is that PS3 will sell the same way there as it has been selling in other countries. And yes it will result in a surge for BR at first. But isn't what matters the long term ? Declaring an all-out winner this early on is the only thing that should be characterized as "spin", not the other way around.

Looks like DanielTS just backed up your region coding theory. Certainly makes sense.

I appreciate the detailed response, but you could have save yourself some time had you just answered my question about the volume of add-on sales and left it at that.

I was not aware that add-ons had sold that heavily. If that is, indeed the case, then I will stand behind your statement to HH.

Either way, it certainly does look like sales for both have really spiked. I suspect there were plenty of HD DVD players, standalones and add-ons waiting to be unwrapped just like there were PS3s.

I hope the volume increases continue. Bodes well for HD optical.

I hope that this volume increase will be significant enough that we don't end up with a niche product like we did with Laserdisc, kind of a stop-gap format before the next one. I'm hoping we can keep HD optical for a good number of years but I'm not so sure it will happen.

Darin, you are one smart cookie and I mean that in the most respectful way. Your analysis and honesty in what you say and write are truly an inspiration for me :)

Hey, count me as a fan. Even when I don't agree. I read through a number of posts and you are spot on. Very insightful.

Can't argue.

Got carried away. I felt it happening and, if you care to look back severl pages, you would notice a slight, but noticeable swing back to the rational. Too little, too late, I guess.

No, I am not imune to irrational exuberance. It's certainly sobering.

Actually, it's kind of funny. Plaz and I had a PM discussion about this between last night and this morning.


EDIT: Oh, and thank you for giving me the credit of at least acting rational some time. :)
What the hell is going on here? We're all getting civil and acting like adults! :eek:

It indicated more than just that.

It showed that the "PS3 effect" wasn't so large that it took HD DVD out of the game, and that even after the launch of the PS3, BD doesn't have a consistent lead. Some weeks HD DVD will sale more, and some BD will sale more.

Days ago people believed the format war was over, now it appears more even then before. BD has the lead, but the gap isn't wide.

Also, rightfully or wrongfully, there's a consensus building around the fact that it is the titles that are causing more sales for BD, not the hardware install base. If true, that has some implications.

How do you get BD has the lead? HD-DVD still has the lead according to these numbers.

French people are "desperately" seeking Xbox 360 HD DVD Player :
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29818700&start=4530

French people are "desperately" waiting for Toshiba HD-XE1:
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29828832&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=5310

Latest French HT forum’s poll results:
. HD DVD: 68%
. Blu-ray: 15%
http://www.homecinema-fr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=29841047

Main HD DVD advantages:
. price
. no region coding

Like I have stated before, France (my country of origin) is the biggest market after the USA when it comes to video. They are the fastest adopting country in Europe for new technologies. They also have the biggest video distributors for the continent, such as Pathe and Studio Canal. UK is actually way slower in adoption rate. And one more thing : price matters very much in that country. If they see one format has the same PQ/AQ for a cheaper cost of entry, they will buy the cheaper one, especially when that is the format with no region coding.

PS3 will not sell any faster in europe than it is selling in other countries. If Japan sales are slow, don't hope for a reversal of situation in europe.

Let's compare the numbers to the number of releases:

YTD

Percentage of market (Percentage of releases)

01/07
Blu-ray: 100 (100)
HD DVD: 47.14 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 100 (100)
HD DVD: 38.36 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 100 (41.6)
HD DVD: 50.51 (58.3)

I'm sure you could find a linear (or quadratic, if you love math) relation between the two. Anyone want to extrapolate the data based on release percentages?

01/28
Blu-ray: ? (85.7)
HD DVD: ? (14.3)

I don't think you have enough data points to generate any type of trend.

How do you get BD has the lead? HD-DVD still has the lead according to these numbers.

It was a guesstimate based on the fact that BD led HD DVD in sales 2 of the last 3 weeks. I recognize that there are a lot of different ways to judge it, and I judge it differently from post to post. So I can't decide on the right way to do it.

One could say that HD DVD is in the lead because it sold more titles last week. One could say BD is in the lead because it sold more titles in 2 of the past 3 weeks. One could say HD DVD had the lead because it has sold more since inception, one could say BD is in the lead because it has sold more year to date.


I guess the most accurate thing to say is that it is too even to tell, given the volatility of the market.

It was a guesstimate based on the fact that BD led HD DVD in sales 2 of the last 3 weeks. I recognize that there are a lot of different ways to judge it, and I judge it differently from post to post. So I can't decide on the right way to do it.

One could say that HD DVD is in the lead because it sold more titles last week. One could say BD is in the lead because it sold more titles in 2 of the past 3 weeks. One could say HD DVD had the lead because it has sold more since inception, one could say BD is in the lead because it has sold more year to date.


I guess the most accurate thing to say is that it is too even to tell, given the volatility of the market.

Funny we don't hear from the typical fanboys that the fat lady has sung... Even more amusing is as soon as another week shows BD with the lead, they will go at it again...

Here's one analysis

Let:

X - BD SI as of Jan 14
x - sales for week of Jan 21
Y - HD DVD SI as of Jan 14
y - sale for week of Jan 21

X/Y = 0.93
(X+x)/(Y+y) = 0.83

X + x = 0.83(Y + y)
X + x = 0.83Y + 0.83y
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - X (now substitute X = 0.93Y)
x = 0.83Y + 0.83y - 0.93Y
x = 0.83y - 0.1Y (divide both sides by y)
x/y = 0.83 - 0.1(Y/y)

Y/y is the ratio of SI sales to one week sales for HD DVD.

x/y must be >= 0, and 0 occurs at Y/y = 8.3 (12%)

But of course, it must be more than 0. If it was 2:1 for HD DVD in that week (x/y = 0.5) then that means Y/y = 5.3 or about 18.9% of SI up until that week.

Multi-months of pre-orders are resulting in BIG numbers being dumped into the situation on release days now. And that is causing some wild changes.

Gary

No they aren't. Preorders are not a factor in this at all, as B&M's don't do pre-orders, and online exclusive retailers are not included in the numbers.

Let's get away from this myth that swings are caused by preorders.

I should see if I can pop the BD number out from the previous weeks changes. I wouldn't be surprised if 70% of BD SI sales occured in January.

How else could BD have gotten to 93% of HD DVD so quickly?

For sure, the numbers now seem to be dwarfing the previous eight months. And, once again, you have to wonder how wise it was for Universal to decide to be sitting on the sidelines for the next few months given this explosion?

Actually, the Amazon numbers are now explained. I was wondering how Serenity managed to be ranking so well, so long after release. Now we know. The HD DVD numbers have popped big too.

Gary

Previous calcuations show BD sold ~1.25 million discs last year. That is how they got to 93% so quickly. It didn't all happen in January.

So why don't they just buy DVD instead of BD if all they are trying to do is get some usage out of their PS3?

As for Europe, from the people I've talked to, other than in the UK, the feeling that I get is that hd dvd and 360 are not doing well at all because people are waiting for PS3 and BD.
Maybe because the PS3 doesn't up convert DVDs? :rolleyes:

I hope that this volume increase will be significant enough that we don't end up with a niche product like we did with Laserdisc, kind of a stop-gap format before the next one. I'm hoping we can keep HD optical for a good number of years but I'm not so sure it will happen.
Don't talk like that.

Of course I'm sure none of us on this forum want that. Personally, I don't feel it's nearly as much of a danger as what laserdisc was up against.

From what I've read, HDTV sales have shot up this year much more than expected. Eventually these new buyers will make the next step.

Of course prices really need to come down. It really sucks that BD hardware is so expensive. But the Sammy has come down and I'm optomistic that there will be some fairly inexpensive hardware on the market before too long. Even if the Sammy, RCA, Phillips and later Sharp are not good players by our standards, they will probably impress the he11 out of J6P's older, more well-to-do brother.

Time will tell, of course.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the Super Bowl will/has done for additional HDTV sales! Come on BABY!!!

Previous calcu;ations show BD sold ~1.25 million discs last year. That is how they got to 93% last year.Why are you claiming that they got to 93% last year? The data in this thread doesn't support that.

--Darin

What the hell is going on here? We're all getting civil and acting like adults! :eek:

Don't be afraid, young Samwise. ;) Remember, I told you, you were on the right path. Well, now I am too. Hopefully I won't slip and fall down in to the cracks of Doom again.

Holding breath!

It was a guesstimate based on the fact that BD led HD DVD in sales 2 of the last 3 weeks. I recognize that there are a lot of different ways to judge it, and I judge it differently from post to post. So I can't decide on the right way to do it.

One could say that HD DVD is in the lead because it sold more titles last week. One could say BD is in the lead because it sold more titles in 2 of the past 3 weeks. One could say HD DVD had the lead because it has sold more since inception, one could say BD is in the lead because it has sold more year to date.


I guess the most accurate thing to say is that it is too even to tell, given the volatility of the market.

Personally, I would go with SI. HD DVD is still in the lead.

I was hoping for a trend that would put BD in the lead by now, which would've really been something, at least I thought. Ah, didn't happen.

Bottom line, leader or not, the race has only, just begun.

Funny we don't hear from the typical fanboys that the fat lady has sung... Even more amusing is as soon as another week shows BD with the lead, they will go at it again...

The first time it happened was a little over a year ago. There were polls put up suggesting HD DVD wouldn't even come out. Now, it's happened again. I think it's a rite that we have here annually. We declare HD DVD dead in order to welcome in spring and the new year. I'm already looking forward to next spring so that I can read HD DVD's obituary again.

Here is my favorite post, (which is no reflection on xbdestroya, whom I really think is a thoughtful poster)

I feel like hosting a DC Area BD victory party. (Plazman, maybe you can come!) I think Washington has got to be one of - if not *the* - most heavily represented area of the country on this entire forum.

We'll watch movies and play games on the PS3. :cool:


Oh, good times. :)

Why are you claiming that they got to 93% last year? The data in this thread doesn't support that.

--Darin

Corrected. I changed my train of thought and didn't delete last year. BD sold ~1.25 million discs last year. It isn't like they magically jumped to 92% because of
the first two weeks of January. Most of the work was done in 2006.

I have updated the numbers to reflect percentage of market (not normalized to 100):

YTD: Percentage of Market (Percentage of Releases)

01/07
Blu-ray: 67.96 (100)
HD DVD: 32.04 (0)

01/14
Blu-ray: 72.28 (100)
HD DVD: 27.72 (0)

01/21
Blu-ray: 66.44 (41.6)
HD DVD: 33.56 (58.3)

The formula I used was 10,000/(100+H)=B where B=% of BD and H=% of HD.

This shows no correlation between releases and share. Looks like BD ends up with 66-70% of the market irrespective of the percent of titles released. Am I missing something in this analysis, or is your point that number of releases has no bearing on market share??????

The first time it happened was a little over a year ago. There were polls put up suggesting HD DVD wouldn't even come out. Now, it's happened again. I think it's a yearly rite that we have here annually. We declare HD DVD dead in order to welcome in spring and the new year. I'm already looking forward to next spring so that I can read HD DVD's obituary again.

Here is my favorite post, (which is no reflection on xbdestroya, whom I really think is a thoughtful poster)




Oh, good times. :)

Kind of reminds one of the Sammy launch and all that Mpeg2/VC1 speculation. Anyone remember that?

Are we really one better than the other?

I don't think you have enough data points to generate any type of trend.

You don't need a single data point if you already made your conclusions before looking at the data.. :p

Personally, I would go with SI. HD DVD is still in the lead.

I was hoping for a trend that would put BD in the lead by now, which would've really been something, at least I thought. Ah, didn't happen.

Bottom line, leader or not, the race has only, just begun.

I believe a clearer picture will start emerging before the holiday season in 2007. My own guess is that the BDA strategy is to end HD DVD before they can get to the 2-4 M player range. At 2M HD DVD players, if we assume an attachment rate of 10, we are talking 20M disks at $25 a disk that would amount to a $500M market. I am sure studios would like to serve that market. At 4 M players we are talking about a $1B market. This would not be VHS v. Beta at that point....

Also, as more titles are available on both formats, the issue of content becomes less important. Like someone said, a person who buys a new HD DVD or BD player today has a choice of appox. 200 titles to choose from. By the end of the year, it could be 600 for HD DVD and 850 for BD....at some point, there are enough titles that it is no longer a huge factor.

I was also looking at the hardware sales on Amazon. It's amazing to me that the Toshiba A-2 has a higher sales rank than the xbox add on drive. If that continues, it's a positive for the HD DVD side. Most studios will tell you that they are closely watching hardware sales. When they see strong sales for a dedicated machine like the A-2, it sends a very strong signal.

I totally agree with you, in that we are in the early stages still, but things move quickly. Hence you see the huge advertising and general FUD campaing being launched by Sony. JMHO.

Oh, good times. :)

LOL, ok well the party's going ahead anyway... you can't stop the bumrush! :D

But HD DVDs will now be welcome as well.

Funny we don't hear from the typical fanboys that the fat lady has sung... Even more amusing is as soon as another week shows BD with the lead, they will go at it again...

I can guarantee we will see another article about the demise of HD DVD on Digital Bits for sure! You can count on that always ;)