Wasnt the 47K for both POTC movies together?

Except the 47k number was incorrect even to begin with. In an editors piece a week or two later HomeMediaMagazine wrote 'nearly 45k'. This would fit perfectly with the 13900 for Matrix. Using that and the percentages for first week would give both Pirates together some 44.5k.

AnthonyP:

You selectivly neglect to answer my questions and then come up with your own list of 15 questions you expect me to give you yes or no answers too?

I've said over and over again what I believe, and yes that's obviously different from what you believe but neither of us have any proof, can we at least agree on that, that they used the Nielsen numbers and switched it to movies. What's so hard to understand about that? You don't have to agree but why do you want me to say it over and over?

We're obviously disagree so I'm just gonna ignore any more inputs from you in this thread. If you do the same I'm sure everyone else will be so much happier.

Feel free to have one last go. I won't respond.

62:38 BD

1. Blood Diamond BD
2. POTC: DMC
3. POTC: Pearl

OK, I don't often do this but I am officially calling BS on your post.

Why ? Because you don't agree with what I say ?


We have discussed ad nauseum how all the PS3 attach rates would not be the same as a standalone DVD player.

By saying 10.5 million copies equals 10% you are automatically exluding all PS2's, XBOX's, and computers and only looking at standalone DVD players sales - and a low estimate at that.

No. Going by households - and assuming all of them have a dvd player (whether that is standalone or not).


And as MovieSwede points out it was for both movies too ...

My Wal-Mart has had two for a week now.

And we all know where that is? :confused:

And we all know where that is? :confused:

Its in the same town where Blu-ray dedicated players have an attach rate of 1.5 and the PS3 has an attach rate of 1.

some interesting early news care of Hollywood Reporter.

On the high-definition disc charts, also from Nielsen, "Norbit" debuted at No. 2 on the HD DVD chart and at No. 4 on the Blu-ray Disc chart. The top-selling title on the HD DVD chart was "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," while the top Blu-ray seller was "Apocalypto."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/news/e3i8378d73d4ac53f92cc4de37a19bba84e

so Blood Diamond didn't make it to the top...

Why ? Because you don't agree with what I say ?


No. Going by households - and assuming all of them have a dvd player (whether that is standalone or not).


And as MovieSwede points out it was for both movies too ...


No, I'm mainly calling BS because you counting every PS3 the same as a standaloen player, which is just silly, and I know you are smarter than that.

I do stand corrected about the 47K - I forgot about that.

So looking at reasonable numbers of ~1.3million PS3's translates into ~260,000 + 100,000 actual standalones gives roughly a ~7% adoption rate for DMC. True, not perfect, but not that shabby either.


If you actually do think each PS3 should equal a standalone when calculating attachment rates I would like to hear it. I promise I will read your response, and respond once - only once - and won't be snarky when I do.

:)

If you actually do think each PS3 should equal a standalone when calculating attachment rates I would like to hear it.

I'm not really talking about attach rates - I don't care about them (except to figure out movie sales).

The reason I used PS3 also - is that I'm using $30 DVD players too. I would guess a PS3 owner is as likely to buy BDs as a $30 DVD player owner.

So, it is more a question of "likelyhood" of someone buying a movie. I'd hazard a guess that many PS3 owners are still buying DVDs ...

I'd hazard a guess that many PS3 owners are still buying DVDs ...

Maybe they're just as happy with upscaled Universal DVDs as HD DVD supporters claim to be with Sony, Fox, and Disney DVDs.

I think 6/26 is probably HD DVD's best chance to sell more than BD. There's no BD exclusive releases that day and lots of HD DVD exclusives. Wonder how the ratio will look that week.

No, I'm mainly calling BS because you counting every PS3 the same as a standaloen player, which is just silly, and I know you are smarter than that.

I do stand corrected about the 47K - I forgot about that.

So looking at reasonable numbers of ~1.3million PS3's translates into ~260,000 + 100,000 actual standalones gives roughly a ~7% adoption rate for DMC. True, not perfect, but not that shabby either.


If you actually do think each PS3 should equal a standalone when calculating attachment rates I would like to hear it. I promise I will read your response, and respond once - only once - and won't be snarky when I do.



There just needs to be consistency. The BDA can't go around shouting "wahh wahh we got >1.5 million Blu-Ray players wahhh wahhh!!" without acknowledging the humiliaring attach ratio... Conversely if the BDA wants to boast attach ratios then they shouldn't count the PS3 as Blu-Ray players. Sony had another pathetic month of PS3 sales the May NPD numbers indicate barely 80,000 were sold. So attach ratios may improve if the dreadful PS3 sales persist.

Attach rates mean nothing if you getting outsold 2 to 1 on the software side, that is what matters the studios.

fitprod

Attach rates mean nothing if you getting outsold 2 to 1 on the software side, that is what matters the studios.

fitprod

If attach rate means nothing they why doesn't Sony proudly announce the 1 Blu-Ray movie sold per Blu-Ray player? That would clearly mean nothing next to HD DVD and their higher attach rate.

When Toshiba starts including HD DVD drives in all of their laptops, do you think they'll include them in their "attach rate" figures? 'Cause I'd say it's a sure thing they won't have as high an attach rate as the PS3.

Attach rates mean nothing if you getting outsold 2 to 1 on the software side, that is what matters the studios.

fitprod

Studio are smarter than this.

They will also look at installed player base, growth, trends, etc. etc.

They will also see:
Installed player base stated by Sony: 1500000 PS3 and 100000 standalones.
They also see 50000..100000 copies of Pirates or Casino Royale sold to this 'installed' player base.

Do the math, these are abysmal sales.
Especially for these 'block buster' titles in an early adopter market, folks that like to show off these kinds of movies on their system.

When Toshiba starts including HD DVD drives in all of their laptops, do you think they'll include them in their "attach rate" figures? 'Cause I'd say it's a sure thing they won't have as high an attach rate as the PS3.

I didn't think either side counted PC drives in any of the figures.

I'm not really talking about attach rates - I don't care about them (except to figure out movie sales).

The reason I used PS3 also - is that I'm using $30 DVD players too. I would guess a PS3 owner is as likely to buy BDs as a $30 DVD player owner.

So, it is more a question of "likelyhood" of someone buying a movie. I'd hazard a guess that many PS3 owners are still buying DVDs ...

I agree. The cost of BD software is too high right now. I usuall don't buy any BDs unless there's a sale

Oh, BTW, CED puts the attach rates for HD DVD players at 8. Not sure how that was calculated, though.

Oh, BTW, CED puts the attach rates for HD DVD players at 8. Not sure how that was calculated, though.

There were about a million HD DVDs sold in the second half of April (source (http://www.betanews.com/article/HD_DVD_Still_Very_Much_in_the_Game/1177544785)). So let's say 1.2M.

8 = 1200000 / x ; x = 150,000

So they're using 150,000 as the basis for attach rate.

Hey, what happened with the Xbox add-ons? After all, they are a dedicated HD DVD playback device and you only buy it if you intend to play HD DVD... right?

Attach rates mean nothing if you getting outsold 2 to 1 on the software side, that is what matters the studios.

fitprod

Actually $$$ matter not units sold. I'd like to see what the $$$ difference is since HD DVD's better selling titles are also more expensive....

More important than simple $$$ is (selling price - cost) or profits....

So, revenue and profits (profit probably not as important now) are what matter most. Attach rates and units sold are 'other' metrics that tell you something about the health of either format. Ratios mean very little since they don't pay anyones bills! Of course if one side is losing sales and the other gaining, it would show up in the sales ratio - but then again the key metric is respective sales growth, not the ratio themselves.

Hopefully that wasn't too complicated to figure out :)

There were about a million HD DVDs sold in the second half of April ([URL=http://www.betanews.com/article/HD_DVD_Still_Very_Much_in_the_Game/1177544785]source). So let's say 1.2M.

8 = 1200000 x ; x = 150,000

So they're using 150,000 as the basis for attach rate.

Hey, what happened with the Xbox add-ons? After all, they are a dedicated HD DVD playback device and you only buy it if you intend to play HD DVD... right?

Agree. The add-on should be counted just like a dedicated player. The buyer has the same intention. There is no reason why the add on should be counted like the PS3 where a buyer may not make a conscious decision to buy a BD player.

Agree. The add-on should be counted just like a dedicated player. The buyer has the same intention. There is no reason why the add on should be counted like the PS3 where a buyer may not make a conscious decision to buy a BD player.

I agree with this. This is why Toshiba's attach rate ratio recently was BS. When calculating attach rate, they ignored the 360addon, but included Blu-ray's attach rate (including the PS3). I think in the end, the attach rate are fairly similar. Blu-ray having sold more discs due to the larger PS3 base.

I agree with this. This is why Toshiba's attach rate ratio recently was BS. When calculating attach rate, they ignored the 360addon, but included Blu-ray's attach rate (including the PS3). I think in the end, the attach rate are fairly similar. Blu-ray having sold more discs due to the larger PS3 base.

I totally agree that attach rates are the same or should be the same for the same type of product. I am not sure why Tosh keeps bringing up attach rates since it is an irrelevant metric IMHO. Talk about $ value of the market and market share by $ contribution etc.....it's about the $ generated not the attach rate (if Tosh is looking for a good PR angle to their story) !

I'm going to guess 67:33 in favor of BR... Yes, I'm probably optimistic this week. ;)
57:43 in favor of Blu-ray. I'm optimistic every week! ;)

8 = 1200000 / x ; x = 150,000


Only way this makes sense is if it is an annualized attach rate. Anyway as I said, the number is not from Tosh - it is from CED (i.e. CED calculated).

Shouldn't these numbers be out already?

Yeah I thought they normally come out at noon.

Yeah I thought they normally come out at noon.

They do. The time zone, though, varies ;)

Well it's gonna be noon on the left coast here soon...

maybe someone forgot to renew the subscription?? :)

It's official: Blu-ray 13, HD DVD 87

Who would have thought! :eek:

Hey now. I'm afraid there are many folks desperately hoping for a turnaround who are going to believe you.

Hey now. I'm afraid there are many folks desperately watching for a turnaround who are going to believe you.

Unfortunately, that is too true.

Hey now. I'm afraid there are many folks desperately hoping for a turnaround who are going to believe you.


Actually folks should be looking for volume growth, not % share if they have any sense....I'm looking for a pick up in sales volume, not what share of scraps went to which format.

Now low and behold, Blood Diamond has been released with a VC-1 encode and average bitrates under 10 Mbs.A followup on this claim. I checked with somebody who can look at sizes with a computer and their calculation came to 12.7Mbps ABR for Blood Diamond on Blu-ray. Might not be exact, but pretty good evidence that it isn't under 10Mbps ABR.

--Darin

Actually folks should be looking for volume growth, not % share if they have any sense....I'm looking for a pick up in sales volume, not what share of scraps went to which format.
Let's face it; volume on both sides is going to stay very low all summer for a number of reasons. And the companies involved know that. I don't think we should expect much volume increase for many weeks unless there are some surprise announcements in the near future. But starting this fall (or maybe even late summer) I expect volume to really take off.

Let's face it; volume is going to stay very low all summer for a number of reasons. And the companies involved know that. I don't think we should expect much volume increase for many weeks unless there are some surprise announcements in the near future.

I'm hoping both sides are saving up for a huge salvo around Christmas time. We may even see the return of Fox and Disney if the BD+ rumors prove to be true.

This isn't meant to imply that selling more players is bad in anyway - it's just that the average person that is willing to jump in at $200 is not going to spend as much on software as someone who was willing to pay $800. This was seen with DVD's - especially when the players dropped below $100. The only way the general populace was convinced to start buying a meaningful amount of software was to start selling it in bins for ~$10.And considering that Netflix and Blockbuster.com don't charge any extra for HD vs SD while the prices to buy are much higher for the HD discs in general, there is some extra incentive to use a rental service for HD people.
Almost 10% of DVD owners bought the POTC : DMC DVD in the first week. How much did it sell in BD ... 47K for 1.4 Million owners or some 3%.It will be interesting to see what happens with POTC3 if it is day-and-date. Conservatively assuming that it sells less on DVD than the 2nd one (say 10 million the first month), is it likely that a Blu-ray version could sell 2% of that late this year? That would be 200k.

--Darin

I believe the new numbers are up now. They are 61/39

I believe the new numbers are up now. They are 61/39

Are you sure those aren't last week's numbers?

I believe the new numbers are up now. They are 61/39

Are you looking at the 6/17/07 issue?

From what I can tell 6/17 still isn't up yet.

Yup., last weeks, sorry

Lat week the first post giving numbers was at 12:31.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10740586&&#post10740586

I wonder if Home Media Magazine thinks it is under a DOS attack with all of us reloading the page like crazy.

LOL. But nxtbook.com hosts the mag ... so it would have to be them.

If I was incharge of this - I'd change the naming convention, just for fun ;)

LOL. But nxtbook.com hosts the mag ... so it would have to be them.

If I was incharge of this - I'd change the naming convention, just for fun ;)

Haha. Got to keep the fanatics guessing.

"Why do our 404 page hits go up every friday?"

66/34
67/33
59/41

66/34
67/33
59/41

Wow.. Even with the huge promotions by Toshiba, Blu-Ray really dominated..

1. Appocolypto 100
2. POTC: DMC 98.55
3. POTC: CBP 84.33
4. Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5. Norbit BD 77.78
6. Blood Diamond 74.95
7. Planet Earth BD 62.17
8. The Messengers 51.05
9. Casino Royale 44.44
10. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65

Only 1 HD DVD in the Top 10 :eek:

Blu-ray

1. Appocolypto 100
2. POTC: DMC 98.55
3. POTC: CBP 84.33
4. Norbit BD 77.78
5. Blood Diamond 74.95

HD DVD

1. Planet Earth 100
2. Norbit 46.41
3. Ultimate Matrix 33.46
4. Letters from Iwo Jima 31.67
5. Complete Matrix 29.30

Wow.. Even with the huge promotions by Toshiba, Blu-Ray really dominated..
Blu-ray does have the buy 2 get 1 free sale.

01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 41.2/58.8
01/14 68.2/31.8 65.7/34.3 43.2/56.8
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 n/a 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41

Wow.. Even with the huge promotions by Toshiba, Blu-Ray really dominated..

Your expectations were wrong. As I posted, don't expect much before EOY.

Let us assume Tosh is selling at a high rate of about 40K players per month. PS3 is selling at about 80K ... let us be generous and make that about 100K, so that 22% is close to 20K. Further let us assume add-on continues to sell at 10K per month. BD stand alone's sell at 7.5K per month.

So, in effect we have 40+10*0.75 - (20+7.5) = 20K effective increase of HD DVD players per month.

To even BD's effective players we need to wait for 130/20 = 6 months. So, if things stay the way they are (they never do !) - we should see HD DVD movie sales equal BD sales on a consistent basis by end of this year

Blu-ray does have the buy 2 get 1 free sale.

Getting 5+ movies free probably doesn't do a whole lot for pushing sales right away, maybe the people who just purchased HD DVD players will have more of an impact later on.

Special Back edition with graphs all the way back to June 2006! Sorry, can't do screen grabs here.

Getting 5+ movies free probably doesn't do a whole lot for pushing sales right away, maybe the people who just purchased HD DVD players will have more of an impact later on.

who is going to buy a $250 player and wait 3 months to use it?

Blu-ray does have the buy 2 get 1 free sale.
Do you know when it ends?

It's not like you get those movies right away. It takes 2 to 4 months to receive them.

Do you know when it ends?

I think it already did.

It's not like you get those movies right away. It takes 2 to 4 months to receive them.

I thought you got some right away, like at Best Buy? I know the 5 free come later but I was thinking there were other free movie promo's as well with purchase of a player. (at one time it was 9, 4 now 5 by mail iirc)

Your expectations were wrong. As I posted, don't expect much before EOY.

Yeah, but are you factoring in cheaper Blu-Ray standalone prices, as well as a potential price drop on the PS3? I suspect that Blu-Ray and HD DVD standalone player sales will be close to even by the end of the year.

If they drop the price of the PS3 and some good exclusive games come out between now and the holidays, PS3 sales could double.

At any rate, I think HD DVD having only one title in the Top 10 is not a good sign when you factor in Fox being silent...

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

I thought you got some right away, like at Best Buy? I know the 5 free come later but I was thinking there were other free movie promo's as well with purchase of a player. (at one time it was 9, 4 now 5 by mail iirc)

The 5 free from toshiba take 2-6 months to receive. If best buy/circuit city had Additional free movies, those are immediate and would also show up on the #s for the week.

I was 1% off, not too shabby. Is no one else surprised that Apocalypto is the #1 HD seller? I knew it would have staying power being that it is day/date and also one of the most amazing transfers to be released in HD regardless of the format, but i thought pirates would still be ontop. Good to know the #s tho.

The end portion of this edition is a treasure trove of information.

So when will the excuses stop? More people are buying discs for the more expensive player. This must mean they like the content on that player more and have more faith in its survivability.

It's clear the Sony 2 for 1 promotion helped boost Casino Royale and The Messengers, which bumped a couple HD-DVD entries out of the top 10 (they were right behind). But how does one explain the drop of POTC and/or ascension of Apocalypto? It wasn't part of the promotion, was it?

Sales:

The Departed 100,500 (Warner)
Superman Returns 84,150 (Warner)
Casino Royale 83,600 (Sony)
Batman Begins 53,500 (Warner)
MI:3 51,400 (Paramount)
Planet Earth 44,700 (Warner)
Happy Feet 40,100 (Warner)
Goodfellas 38,200 (Warner)
The Prestige 34,700 (Disney)
The Fifth Element 33,800 (Sony)
The Last Samurai 32,500 (Warner)
X-Men: The Last Stand 32,000 (Fox)
Underworld: Evolution 31,400 (Sony)
Ice Age: Meltdown 28,300 (Fox)
Night at the Museum 28,100 (Fox)
Black Hawk Down 27,900 (Sony)
Talladega Nights 27,700 (Sony)
Babel 27,000 (Paramount)
Serenity 26,200 (Universal)
Troy 26,100 (Warner)

It's clear the Sony 2 for 1 promotion helped boost Casino Royale and The Messengers, which bumped a couple HD-DVD entries out of the top 10 (they were right behind). But how does one explain the drop of POTC and/or ascension of Apocalypto? It wasn't part of the promotion, was it?

It was not. It is certainly interesting to see the staying power of day-and-date vs catalog.

Week Ended 6/10
66-34 Blu ray

Year to date
67-33 Blu Ray

SI
59-41 Blu Ray

Week Ended 6/10
66-34 Blu ray

Year to date
67-33 Blu Ray

SI
59-41 Blu Ray

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/

Big winner in sales: Warner Brothers with 6 of the Top 10

Big loser: Universal with 1 in the Top 20 (at spot 19)

Damn can't get the end of this issue to finish downloading :-(

Is there a date for those total numbers should be a week or two back it looks like.

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

I thinkt that says more about the state of this market so far than percentage numbers right now.

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

Just to clarify, this is thr' May 27 th i.e. two weeks old.

I think it already did.
Amazon has minimal effect on the nielsen numbers. The disks on sale on amazon are not on the top10 combined disks.

This week, 9 of the top 10 highdef disks are BD.

I think June 26th release shoud swing the numbers somewhat. That week, there's lots of exclusive red titles, and NO exclusive blue titles. If that week does not go for the red format, then what?

1. The Departed - 100,500 (BD: 62,700 HD: 37,800)
2. Superman Returns - 84,150 (BD: 44,800 HD: 39,300)
3. Casino Royale - 83,600
4. Batman Begins - 53,500
5. MI:3 51,400 (BD: 25,500 HD: 25,800)
Planet Earth 44,700 (BD: HD: 25,400)
Happy Feet 40,100 (Warner)
Goodfellas 38,200 (Warner)
The Prestige 34,700 (Disney)
The Fifth Element 33,800 (Sony)
The Last Samurai 32,500 (Warner)
X-Men: The Last Stand 32,000 (Fox)
Underworld: Evolution 31,400 (Sony)
Ice Age: Meltdown 28,300 (Fox)
Night at the Museum 28,100 (Fox)
Black Hawk Down 27,900 (Sony)
Talladega Nights 27,700 (Sony)
Babel 27,000 (Paramount)
Serenity 26,200 (Universal)

Can someone help complete this?

Yeah, but are you factoring in cheaper ...

I can't factor in unknown stuff.

So, if things stay the way they are (they never do !) - we should see HD DVD movie sales equal BD sales on a consistent basis by end of this year

In anycase, I was just showing why your expectation that because a few more players are getting sold - suddenly the movie sales ratio should change is not rational.

It's clear the Sony 2 for 1 promotion helped boost Casino Royale and The Messengers, which bumped a couple HD-DVD entries out of the top 10 (they were right behind). But how does one explain the drop of POTC and/or ascension of Apocalypto? It wasn't part of the promotion, was it?

ehhhh, i dont know, Casino Royale was boosted a tad, as we see on amazon (the two for one sales was online only) But the Messengers must have sold well at B&M since its a new release and sold like crap on amazon...also, was the messengers even part of the 2 for one sale, i thought they were all back releases.

Also Casino royale was constantly hovering around 35 on the BD sales ratio.

The 2 for one sales doesnt explain the whooping the BD Norbit put on HD Norbit selling nearly 2 times as many copies.

Just to clarify, this is thr' May 27 th i.e. two weeks old.

EXACTLY, which means that is the SI numbers, which means if we factor in the last 2 weekly ratios BD has pulled even farther ahead. :)

1. The Departed - 100,500 (BD: 62,700 HD: 37,800)
2. Superman Returns - 84,150 (BD: 44,800 HD: 39,300)
3. Casino Royale - 83,600
4. Batman Begins - 53,500
5. MI:3 51,400 (BD: 25,500 HD: 25,800)
Planet Earth 44,700 (BD: HD: 25,400)
Happy Feet 40,100 (Warner)
Goodfellas 38,200 (Warner)
The Prestige 34,700 (Disney)
The Fifth Element 33,800 (Sony)
The Last Samurai 32,500 (Warner)
X-Men: The Last Stand 32,000 (Fox)
Underworld: Evolution 31,400 (Sony)
Ice Age: Meltdown 28,300 (Fox)
Night at the Museum 28,100 (Fox)
Black Hawk Down 27,900 (Sony)
Talladega Nights 27,700 (Sony)
Babel 27,000 (Paramount)
Serenity 26,200 (Universal)

Can someone help complete this?

I would if I could get the damn thing to finish loading

EXACTLY, which means that is the SI numbers, which means if we factor in the last 2 weekly ratios BD has pulled even farther ahead. :)

Well thats obvious - don't know whether that matters as such.

The date is important because that helps me guess the numbers.

If this is true

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

and this is true (dated 4/26/07)

"It just wouldn't be a proper format war without a rebuttal from the opposing side about this week's announcement that Blu-ray has sold over a million discs. The HD DVD PR machine scrambled to life to point out that they, too, are so close to that magic million, with their own sales numbers showing 998,000 units sold, up from the 937,500 reported by Home Media Research."

Taken from
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too/

Thats great news for BR because since that time to the end of May (or now?) Blu Ray has enormously outsold HD DVD.

josh2012:

post what you have and I'll do the rest. Finally got in.

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

Those are pretty sobering numbers and just go to show how completely far from reality the vast majority of posts here at AVS are.

We've been reading posts/threads here on a daily basis for 6 months talking about an ongoing BD "sales surge" and how the "gap is widening" and how BD has won and how HD DVD can never catch up and how HD DVD is a "sinking ship" and etc. etc. etc.

The end result? 445,000 extra discs sold on the BD side.

That's it. Less than half a million discs. A mediocre DVD release will sell 5x that amount on it's first day.


This just goes to show that (contrary to the hair pulling and overanalysing that goes on here), this market is still pathetically small and anything can happen. With numbers that close and that small, neither side is "winning".

If this is true

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

and this is true (dated 4/26/07)

"It just wouldn't be a proper format war without a rebuttal from the opposing side about this week's announcement that Blu-ray has sold over a million discs. The HD DVD PR machine scrambled to life to point out that they, too, are so close to that magic million, with their own sales numbers showing 998,000 units sold, up from the 937,500 reported by Home Media Research."

Taken from
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too/

Thats great news for BR because since that time to the end of May (or now?) Blu Ray has enormously outsold HD DVD.
Difficult to believe that in roughly a month (6 wks?) 600,000 more BD disks sold? That number doesn't match what our calculations indicate. There didn't seem to have been a week that BD sold more than 100K, but if that number is real, that's an average of 100K/wk, which seems over inflated.

If this is true

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

and this is true (dated 4/26/07)

"It just wouldn't be a proper format war without a rebuttal from the opposing side about this week's announcement that Blu-ray has sold over a million discs. The HD DVD PR machine scrambled to life to point out that they, too, are so close to that magic million, with their own sales numbers showing 998,000 units sold, up from the 937,500 reported by Home Media Research."

Taken from
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too/

Thats great news for BR because since that time to the end of May (or now?) Blu Ray has enormously outsold HD DVD.


well enormously.....?
I don´t think it´s news to anyone that has been reading this thread that bd is selling more discs each week?

this is from april, 23rd (http://www.reuters.com/article/filmNews/idUSN2220834920070423)

"Since the high-def format's inception -- HD DVD launched in April 2006, while Blu-ray got rolling two months later -- more than 2.14 million discs have been purchased by consumers: 1.2 million Blu-ray Discs and about 937,500 HD DVDs"

that would make bd increasing from 1,2 to 1,63 (430 000)
and hd dvd increasing from 0.93 to 1,19 (260 000)

The mag doesn't have 300 listed for Blu-ray on 7/31, just HD-DVD. Typo, or did I miss something?

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/8598/picture1ic2.jpg

Thats great news for BR because since that time to the end of May (or now?) Blu Ray has enormously outsold HD DVD.

This is the type of hyperbole I was talking about. There's nothing "enormous" about those numbers. They're small and very sad -- for both sides.

Those are pretty sobering numbers and just go to show how completely far from reality the vast majority of posts here at AVS are.

We've been reading posts/threads here on a daily basis for 6 months talking about an ongoing BD "sales surge" and how the "gap is widening" and how BD has won and how HD DVD can never catch up and how HD DVD is a "sinking ship" and etc. etc. etc.

The end result? 445,000 extra discs sold on the BD side.

That's it. Less than half a million discs. A mediocre DVD release will sell 5x that amount on it's first day.


This just goes to show that (contrary to the hair pulling and overanalysing that goes on here), this market is still pathetically small and anything can happen. With numbers that close and that small, neither side is "winning".


Couldn´t agree more.

of course I am hd dvd biased. But I still can´t see no reason to worry. It really doesn´t take much to change that number, not that I am saying that it will change, but it certainly could.

But just as hd dvd could turn this, it is even easier for bda to maintain it´s lead. But somehow I see no real "try or die" efforts from either sides, perhaps it´s not needed yet?

HD DVD since interception through May 27, 2007
01. Batman Begins - 53,500
02. Superman Returns - 39,300
03. The Departed - 37,800
04. Serenity - 26,200
05. Goodfellas - 26,100
06. Troy - 26,100
07. Mission Impossible III - 25,800
08. Planet Earth - 25,400
09. The Last Samurai - 22,400
10. Apollo 13 - 19,900
11. The Bourne Supreme - 19,300
12. V for Vendetta - 19,100
13. Smokin Aces - 17,200
14. Miami Vice - 16,600
15. The Polar Express - 16,500
16. Training Day - 15,200
17. Children of Men - 14,900
18. The Phantom of the Opera - 14,700
19. Happy Feet - 14,600
20. King Kong - 14,300
xx. Babel - 12,600
xx. The Good Shepherd - 10,800
xx. Lucky Number Slevin - 9,200
xx. The Ultimate Matrix Collection - 7,900
xx. The Mummy Returns - 7,300

BD since interception through May 27, 2007
01. Casino Royale - 83,600
02. The Departed - 62,700
03. Superman Returns - 44,800
04. The Prestige - 34,700
05. The Fifth Element - 33,800
06. X-Men: The Last Stand - 32,000
07. Underworld: Evolution - 31,400
08. Ice Age: The Meltdown - 28,300
09. Night at the Museum - 28,100
10. Black Hawk Down - 27,900
11. Talladega Nights - 27,700
12. Happy Feet - 25,500
12. Mission Impossible III - 25,500
14. Crank - 24,800
15. Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - 23,700
16. Deja Vu - 22,700
17. Terminator 2 - 21,600
18. Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - 21,100
19. Saw III - 20,400
20. House of Flying Daggers - 20,000
yy. Planet Earth - 19,300
yy. Rocky Balboa - 18,600
yy. Eragon - 17,800
yy. The Pursuit of Happyness - 17,800
yy. Apocalypto - 17,300

This is the type of hyperbole I was talking about. There's nothing "enormous" about those numbers. They're small and very sad -- for both sides.

It is astonishing how much downplaying and damage control you keep on doing. Those #s are 2 weeks old. There is a larger gap by now and the gap just keeps growing. Soon it will be 2:1 and you will still say how pathetic it is. If the #s are pathetic, then what does that make the losing format? Bionically Pathetic? Give me a break man.

This just goes to show that (contrary to the hair pulling and overanalysing that goes on here), this market is still pathetically small and anything can happen. With numbers that close and that small, neither side is "winning".

Agreed.
As I stated before, unless/until there is signficant growth in the HDM formats, over-analyzing these (almost laughably) small weekly sales numbers is akin to medieval monks arguing over how many angels can fit on the head of a pin - academically interesting, but not very significant in the real world.

Both formats since interception through May 27, 2007
01. Casino Royale - BD - 83,600
02. The Departed - BD - 62,700
03. Batman Begins - HD DVD - 53,500
04. Superman Returns - BD - 44,800
05. Superman Returns - HD DVD - 39,300
06. The Departed - HD DVD - 37,800
07. The Prestige - BD - 34,700
08. The Fifth Element - BD - 33,800
09. X-Men: The Last Stand - BD - 32,000
10. Underworld: Evolution - BD - 31,400
11. Ice Age: The Meltdown - BD - 28,300
12. Night at the Museum - BD - 28,100
13. Black Hawk Down - BD - 27,900
14. Talladega Nights - BD - 27,700
15. Serenity - HD DVD - 26,200
16. Goodfellas - HD DVD - 26,100
17. Troy - HD DVD - 26,100
18. Mission Impossible III - HD DVD - 25,800
19. Happy Feet - BD - 25,500
20. Mission Impossible III - BD - 25,500
21. Planet Earth - HD DVD - 25,400
22. Crank - BD - 24,800
23. Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - BD - 23,700
24. Deja Vu - BD - 22,700
25. The Last Samurai - HD DVD - 22,400
26. Terminator 2 - BD - 21,600
27. Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - BD - 21,100
28. Saw III - BD - 20,400
29. House of Flying Daggers - BD - 20,000
30. Apollo 13 - HD DVD - 19,900
31. The Bourne Supreme - HD DVD - 19,300
yy. Planet Earth - BD - 19,300
xx. V for Vendetta - HD DVD - 19,100
yy. Rocky Balboa - BD - 18,600
yy. Eragon - BD - 17,800
yy. The Pursuit of Happyness - BD - 17,800
yy. Apocalypto - BD - 17,300
xx. Smokin Aces - HD DVD - 17,200
xx. Miami Vice - HD DVD - 16,600
xx. The Polar Express - HD DVD - 16,500
xx. Training Day - HD DVD - 15,200
xx. Children of Men - HD DVD - 14,900
xx. The Phantom of the Opera - HD DVD - 14,700
xx. Happy Feet - HD DVD - 14,600
xx. King Kong - HD DVD - 14,300
xx. Babel - HD DVD - 12,600
xx. The Good Shepherd - HD DVD - 10,800
xx. Lucky Number Slevin - HD DVD - 9,200
xx. The Ultimate Matrix Collection - HD DVD - 7,900
xx. The Mummy Returns - HD DVD - 7,300

Edit: forgot to adjust placement numbers

The "enormous" ratio difference, for sales from April through end of May, comes out to 62/38. Which is right around where you'd expect it to, looking at the weekly ratios during that time period.

The Norbit sales don't portend well for HD-DVD. Most dual-format releases have been around 60:40 Blu-ray, and the reason given by some has been the "dvd combo" factor, where a user with both formats will purchase the Blu-ray disk to save $5. Norbit was not a combo, it was the same price on both formats, and its ratio was 67:33.

Course, this is all notwithstanding the Planet Earth sales, which sure are an interesting anomaly. I still have no idea why PE is selling at 43:57 HD-DVD favor, while almost all other dual-format releases are 60:40 BD or higher. Gotta be a reason.

Course, this is all notwithstanding the Planet Earth sales, which sure are an interesting anomaly. I still have no idea why PE is selling at 43:57 HD-DVD favor, while almost all other dual-format releases are 60:40 BD or higher. Gotta be a reason.

Well, Planet Earth at one end of the scale and Norbit at the other doesn't give you any clues? How about a difference in something called taste?

If this is true

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410

and this is true (dated 4/26/07)

"It just wouldn't be a proper format war without a rebuttal from the opposing side about this week's announcement that Blu-ray has sold over a million discs. The HD DVD PR machine scrambled to life to point out that they, too, are so close to that magic million, with their own sales numbers showing 998,000 units sold, up from the 937,500 reported by Home Media Research."

Taken from
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/04/26/hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-oh-yeah-well-weve-sold-a-lot-of-discs-too/

Thats great news for BR because since that time to the end of May (or now?) Blu Ray has enormously outsold HD DVD.I've explained this before, but I got the original email from the marketing company working for HD DVD that contained the 998k figure and I thought they made it reasonably clear that they were doing an apples to oranges comparison by using Nielsen plus Point-Of-Sale numbers from 3 companies for their 998k figure, while mentioning the one million claim from the other side that may have just used Nielsen numbers and was likely not an exact figure. If the marketing company had seen that Nielsen numbers were within 2k (since they could see Nielsen numbers for both sides) they could have said so, but they didn't say that sales were that close, only that they got to within 2k of the number the other side claimed.

--Darin

The "enormous" ratio difference, for sales from April through end of May, comes out to 62/38. Which is right around where you'd expect it to, looking at the weekly ratios during that time period.

The Norbit sales don't portend well for HD-DVD. Most dual-format releases have been around 60:40 Blu-ray, and the reason given by some has been the "dvd combo" factor, where a user with both formats will purchase the Blu-ray disk to save $5. Norbit was not a combo, it was the same price on both formats, and its ratio was 67:33.

Course, this is all notwithstanding the Planet Earth sales, which sure are an interesting anomaly. I still have no idea why PE is selling at 43:57 HD-DVD favor, while almost all other dual-format releases are 60:40 BD or higher. Gotta be a reason.

Check all the user reviews from Amazon. Theres plenty of upset people who bought it thinking it was a HD version of the DVD (like a SE) and once they opened it, amazon wont return it, so it is a done deal sale. I wish i could make it up, but go look for yourself. I'd say a HUGE chunk of the sales are from people who thought it was a SE DVD set.

I've explained this before, but I got the original email from the marketing company working for HD DVD that contained the 998k figure and I thought they made it reasonably clear that they were doing an apples to oranges comparison by using Nielsen plus Point-Of-Sale numbers from 3 companies for their 998k figure, while mentioning the one million claim from the other side that may have just used Nielsen numbers and was likely not an exact figure. If the marketing company had seen that Nielsen numbers were within 2k (since they could see Nielsen numbers for both sides) they could have said so, but they didn't say that sales were that close, only that they got to within 2k of the number the other side claimed.

--Darin

Quite possible I guess, if so shouldn't we now be able to figure out an approximation for how much of the market for HD that Nielsen covers? At least a round number? Someone else get to work on that. I'm busy ;)

Well, Planet Earth at one end of the scale and Norbit at the other doesn't give you any clues? How about a difference in something called taste?

Oh, I'll certainly say there's a massive quality difference between those two (PE is awesome, and you have to really look hard to find a IMDB user rating lower than Norbit's that doesn't have Shaq in it.)

But my point was beyond just Norbit vs PE. We've consistently seen at least 60:40 Blu-ray (usually right around it) for almost all dual-format releases. The Departed, Dreamgirls, Letters from Iwo Jima, Flags of our Fathers...List goes on and on. Norbit's even a little higher. PE just flat-out bucks the trend, was my point, and I'm not sure why.

Check all the user reviews from Amazon. Theres plenty of upset people who bought it thinking it was a HD version of the DVD (like a SE) and once they opened it, amazon wont return it, so it is a done deal sale. I wish i could make it up, but go look for yourself. I'd say a HUGE chunk of the sales are from people who thought it was a SE DVD set.

You keep pushing this idea. I'll grant you a few copies. Count exactly how many complaints there are on Amazon. Don't forget to not count those that admit to returning it since they never actually opened it. Then multiply with about 4 since Amazon sell about 25 percent of all copies. Then figure out how many copies your theory are missing form coming even close to explaining that. Actually maybe you should also deduct a few post made by viral agents :o

Amazon has minimal effect on the nielsen numbers. The disks on sale on amazon are not on the top10 combined disks.


Check all the user reviews from Amazon. Theres plenty of upset people who bought it thinking it was a HD version of the DVD (like a SE) and once they opened it, amazon wont return it, so it is a done deal sale. I wish i could make it up, but go look for yourself. I'd say a HUGE chunk of the sales are from people who thought it was a SE DVD set.


Which is it?

The strength of Planet Earth sure is impressive. This week it seems to be doing even better on HD DVD on Amazon compared to those Nielsen numbers and even some previous weeks on Amazon. I don't know how many bought it not understanding the HD DVD thing, but I still think there is a good chance it is doing better on HD DVD just because many looking for that type of thing might not care so much about regular movies and could just look for whatever player is cheapest.

One of the reasons that The Matrix hasn't sold better is the price, but Planet Earth is priced pretty high also, has been out for longer, splits sales between 2 formats, Amazon has been running a deal for The Matrix to people who buy a new player (they can get 2 more movies free if they get The Matrix), although I don't remember if that deal was during this week's numbers, and yet PE outsold The Matrix just on HD DVD about 1.8:1 for that week. And even the BD version by itself outsold both Matrix sets together. Together it looks like PE outsold the Matrix sets over 3:1.

If PE continues doing better on HD DVD than BD it could help HD DVD get a win in a week with little to no new content, or just little to no new content on Blu-ray.

--Darin

You keep pushing this idea. I'll grant you a few copies. Count exactly how many complaints there are on Amazon. Don't forget to not count those that admit to returning it since they never actually opened it. Then multiply with about 4 since Amazon sell about 25 percent of all copies. Then figure out how many copies your theory are missing form coming even close to explaining that. Actually maybe you should also deduct a few post made by viral agents :o

Ive never mentioned this in my entire time at AVS. Go through my post history. Before making accusations like that, better make sure you aren't spewing out crap against someone. But again, whatever lies it takes to try and keep hd-dvd alive on AVS.

Which is it?

Is my name Neo1965?

It is astonishing how much downplaying and damage control you keep on doing.

Is it your position that these numbers are strong? That a format that sells 445k more during a 12-month period is somehow unstoppable or victorious?

445,000 units. Do you have any clue what a tiny number that is?

Those #s are 2 weeks old. There is a larger gap by now and the gap just keeps growing.

How many discs do you think sold in the past 2 weeks? Enough to radically impact those numbers? If a format can only sell about 1 to 1.5 million discs in a 12-month period, I highly doubt that an extra 14 days will skew the numbers. But, please... enlighten me.

If the #s are pathetic, then what does that make the losing format? Bionically Pathetic?

It makes it exactly 445,000 units more pathetic. I'm not sure that there are "degrees" of pathetic when you're dealing with numbers this small, but if it makes you sleep better at night, go ahead and call the "losing" format whatever you want.

The rest of us realists will look at the situation for what it is, rather than doing the happy blu-dance because of a tiny lead on anemic sales figures.

Give me a break man.

Ditto.

I think Discovery has been re-airing the Planet Earth series, so that could explain a new surge in PE disc sales.

(this info based on my tivo picking up another episode either yesterday or the day before)

Is my name Neo1965?


Sorry, of course not, but I meant the fact that sometimes people claim Amazon doesn´t mean squat, and sometimes it does. It´s always good when´it can be used for whatever "side" of the war you cheer.

I think that since there is no real fact behind the claim that a large (?) part of pe sales is due to buyers thinking it is sd dvd it is just pure bs and really tries to take away the merit of pe sales.

Titles format combined since interception through May 27, 2007
01. The Departed - 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
02. Superman Returns - 84,100 (44,800+39,300)
03. Casino Royale - BD - 83,600
04. Batman Begins - HD DVD - 53,500
05. Mission Impossible III - 51,300 (25,500+25,800)
06. Planet Earth - 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
07. Happy Feet - 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
08. The Prestige - BD - 34,700
09. The Fifth Element - BD - 33,800
10. X-Men: The Last Stand - BD - 32,000
11. Underworld: Evolution - BD - 31,400
12. Ice Age: The Meltdown - BD - 28,300
13. Night at the Museum - BD - 28,100
14. Black Hawk Down - BD - 27,900
15. Talladega Nights - BD - 27,700
16. Serenity - HD DVD - 26,200
17. Goodfellas - HD DVD - 26,100
18. Troy - HD DVD - 26,100
19. Crank - BD - 24,800
20. Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - BD - 23,700
21. Deja Vu - BD - 22,700
22. The Last Samurai - HD DVD - 22,400
23. Terminator 2 - BD - 21,600
24. Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - BD - 21,100
25. Saw III - BD - 20,400
26. House of Flying Daggers - BD - 20,000
27. Apollo 13 - HD DVD - 19,900
28. The Bourne Supreme - HD DVD - 19,300
xx. V for Vendetta - HD DVD - 19,100
yy. Rocky Balboa - BD - 18,600
yy. Eragon - BD - 17,800
yy. The Pursuit of Happyness - BD - 17,800
yy. Apocalypto - BD - 17,300
xx. Smokin Aces - HD DVD - 17,200
xx. Miami Vice - HD DVD - 16,600
xx. The Polar Express - HD DVD - 16,500
xx. Training Day - HD DVD - 15,200
xx. Children of Men - HD DVD - 14,900
xx. The Phantom of the Opera - HD DVD - 14,700
xx. King Kong - HD DVD - 14,300
xx. Babel - HD DVD - 12,600
xx. The Good Shepherd - HD DVD - 10,800
xx. Lucky Number Slevin - HD DVD - 9,200
xx. The Ultimate Matrix Collection - HD DVD - 7,900
xx. The Mummy Returns - HD DVD - 7,300

Sorry, of course not, but I meant the fact that sometimes people claim Amazon doesn´t mean squat, and sometimes it does. It´s always good when´it can be used for whatever "side" of the war you cheer.

I think that since there is no real fact behind the claim that a large (?) part of pe sales is due to buyers thinking it is sd dvd it is just pure bs and really tries to take away the merit of pe sales.

If there is even proof of *1* disc being bought accidentally and couldnt be returned, which there is plenty of, then you have to realize that the # sold isnt true to what is the reality of sales for that title to hd-dvd owners. Basically, its selling more because of uninformed customers, not because there is more people in love with planet earth and hd-dvd players. That is my GUESS tho, i do not state it as fact, although i have some partial facts to back up my GUESS (amazon reviews).

Titles format combined since interception through May 27, 2007
01. The Departed - 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
02. Superman Returns - 84,100 (44,800+39,300)
03. Casino Royale - BD - 83,600
04. Batman Begins - HD DVD - 53,500
05. Mission Impossible III - 51,300 (25,500+25,800)
06. Planet Earth - 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
07. Happy Feet - 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
08. The Prestige - BD - 34,700
09. The Fifth Element - BD - 33,800
10. X-Men: The Last Stand - BD - 32,000
11. Underworld: Evolution - BD - 31,400
12. Ice Age: The Meltdown - BD - 28,300
13. Night at the Museum - BD - 28,100
14. Black Hawk Down - BD - 27,900
15. Talladega Nights - BD - 27,700
16. Serenity - HD DVD - 26,200
17. Goodfellas - HD DVD - 26,100
18. Troy - HD DVD - 26,100
19. Crank - BD - 24,800
20. Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - BD - 23,700
21. Deja Vu - BD - 22,700
22. The Last Samurai - HD DVD - 22,400
23. Terminator 2 - BD - 21,600
24. Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - BD - 21,100
25. Saw III - BD - 20,400
26. House of Flying Daggers - BD - 20,000
27. Apollo 13 - HD DVD - 19,900
28. The Bourne Supreme - HD DVD - 19,300
xx. V for Vendetta - HD DVD - 19,100
yy. Rocky Balboa - BD - 18,600
yy. Eragon - BD - 17,800
yy. The Pursuit of Happyness - BD - 17,800
yy. Apocalypto - BD - 17,300
xx. Smokin Aces - HD DVD - 17,200
xx. Miami Vice - HD DVD - 16,600
xx. The Polar Express - HD DVD - 16,500
xx. Training Day - HD DVD - 15,200
xx. Children of Men - HD DVD - 14,900
xx. The Phantom of the Opera - HD DVD - 14,700
xx. King Kong - HD DVD - 14,300
xx. Babel - HD DVD - 12,600
xx. The Good Shepherd - HD DVD - 10,800
xx. Lucky Number Slevin - HD DVD - 9,200
xx. The Ultimate Matrix Collection - HD DVD - 7,900
xx. The Mummy Returns - HD DVD - 7,300

Thanks for the work jpb123

One thing strikes me as a little odd with this. BD is supposed to be a younger male demographic, so movies that many of us would turn our noses up at do fairly well...

My question is why did the Departed do so well on BD while Superman Returns did not? (bd/hd ratio wise)

I would have thought the percentage of BD/HD on Superman Returns to be more in favor of BD than it is.

This doesn't mean anything, I just thought it was interesting and seemed to go against the assumed demographic.

Ive never mentioned this in my entire time at AVS. Go through my post history. Before making accusations like that, better make sure you aren't spewing out crap against someone. But again, whatever lies it takes to try and keep hd-dvd alive on AVS.

If you haven't I apologize. Somebody has using basically the same words.

That doesn't really get you off the hook of proving your point though. I guess you couldn't.

These numbers are interesting.

Has the ratio ever been this high before on a week with no big titles?

I guess Blood Diamond could be considered big but since it lost to 4 other titles that are not new it could not really be considered much of an influence.

Most "slow" weeks the ratio has been closer to 60:40 - I wonder if the ratio has seriously moved to the 65:35 range or this week is an anomaly?

One thing strikes me as a little odd with this. BD is supposed to be a younger male demographic, so movies that many of us would turn our noses up at do fairly well...

My question is why did the Departed do so well on BD while Superman Returns did not? (bd/hd ratio wise)

I would have thought the percentage of BD/HD on Superman Returns to be more in favor of BD than it is.

This doesn't mean anything, I just thought it was interesting and seemed to go against the assumed demographic.Superman Returns released at a time when the PS3 had barely gotten out there and I believe it had lossless audio on HD DVD and not on Blu-ray. I think the bigger factor could be when it released, but I would have to look back at some of the data about how it did in the first 8 weeks.

--Darin

Total Unit Sales SI:

Blu-ray: 1,637,090
HD DVD: 1,192,410With the latest 67/33 and some of the other data we have it seems like we could get close to figuring out what the disc sales for each side have been for 2007.

2006 likely ended at around 40/60 ratio for HD DVD. I could try to guestimate, but nataraj seems to have the calculations set that should give us a good idea.

--Darin

Well, Planet Earth at one end of the scale and Norbit at the other doesn't give you any clues? How about a difference in something called taste?

Ha. New slogan for HD DVD. It tastes better ! ;)

If there is even proof of *1* disc being bought accidentally and couldnt be returned, which there is plenty of, then you have to realize that the # sold isnt true to what is the reality of sales for that title to hd-dvd owners. Basically, its selling more because of uninformed customers, not because there is more people in love with planet earth and hd-dvd players. That is my GUESS tho, i do not state it as fact, although i have some partial facts to back up my GUESS (amazon reviews).

And if there is 1 BD sold to a PS3 owner who wants to try out the format but decides not to continue buying? All those copies are an addition that HD DVD can't get.

Let's see. 1.4 million PS3s. Let's say 10% tries BD out and decides it's not for them. Ooops, that 140,000 copies that 'shouldn't be counted'

Look, we're not counting every copy sold. We know that. I like numbers and are interested in this 'war' both from the movie angle and from the business side of it. It's fun. It's not the truth. We don't know the full truth. Today we know a little more than yesterday since we got all these new numbers to play with.

Superman Returns released at a time when the PS3 had barely gotten out there and I believe it had lossless audio on HD DVD and not on Blu-ray. I think the bigger factor could be when it released, but I would have to look back at some of the data about how it did in the first 8 weeks.

--Darin

The other oddity is that it is a Combo on HD DVD so it should have been more expensive (it was by $5 if I recall.. I own the HD DVD of it). I also seem to remember reading someone ranting about the PQ on it on BD (this is not a flame just what I recall reading and I could very well be mistaken) which may also skew the #

Difficult to believe that in roughly a month (6 wks?) 600,000 more BD disks sold? That number doesn't match what our calculations indicate. There didn't seem to have been a week that BD sold more than 100K, but if that number is real, that's an average of 100K/wk, which seems over inflated.


The last "good" figure we have is for Mar 18. BD was - 846,771. We now have 1,637,090 for May 27. The difference is 790,319. That is for 10 weeks - so an average of 79K. Definitely higher than our estimates.

I think now we have enough information to be able to back calculate to get better estimates. So, I've a project for the weekend ;)

I just hope the numbers are as Nielsen reported - not some projections by HMM.

I found this pretty interesting - the studio breakdown for the top 20 HD discs this year...

Warner has 5 titles (25%)
Sony has 5 titles (25%)
BVHE/Disney has 4 (20%)
Paramount has 2 (10%)
Lionsgate has 2 (10%)
Fox has 1 (5%)
BBC has 1 (5%)

Of course, the BBC is distributed through Warner, so they are the winners so far this year. Noticeable only by their absence are MGM and Universal.

In fact there are zero HD DVD exclusives in the top 20 titles. Though I imagine that the Matrix may have made it into that list by now..?

Superman Returns released at a time when the PS3 had barely gotten out there and I believe it had lossless audio on HD DVD and not on Blu-ray. I think the bigger factor could be when it released, but I would have to look back at some of the data about how it did in the first 8 weeks.

--Darin
Could be right, I don't have the data handy but the Sony released report from February did have first 8 week data for each title.

The last "good" figure we have is for Mar 18. BD was - 846,771. We now have 1,637,090 for May 27. The difference is 790,319. That is for 10 weeks - so an average of 79K. Definitely higher than our estimates.Good point. And if they sold about 57k the next week then that would mean those 11 weeks sold as many as they had up until March 18th (around 40 weeks since inception). Also, averaging 79k per week would put them over 1 million for a 13 week quarter.

--Darin

Superman Returns released at a time when the PS3 had barely gotten out there and I believe it had lossless audio on HD DVD and not on Blu-ray. I think the bigger factor could be when it released, but I would have to look back at some of the data about how it did in the first 8 weeks.

--Darin

Here it is. Second figure is SI sales, last is YTD. As of Mar 18.

SUPERMAN RETURNS-BRY BRY 22,582 30,845 17,779 13,066
SUPERMAN RETURNS-HDD/DVD HDD 24,706 28,440 22,285 6,155

I found this pretty interesting - the studio breakdown for the top 20 HD discs this year...

Warner has 5 titles (25%)
Sony has 5 titles (25%)
BVHE/Disney has 4 (20%)
Paramount has 2 (10%)
Lionsgate has 2 (10%)
Fox has 1 (5%)
BBC has 1 (5%)

Of course, the BBC is distributed through Warner, so they are the winners so far this year. Noticeable only by their absence are MGM and Universal.

In fact there are zero HD DVD exclusives in the top 20 titles. Though I imagine that the Matrix may have made it into that list by now..?

If you're going to count The Matrix as a HD DVD exclusive then you might as well count Batman Begins as a HD DVD exclusive.

I expect to see both titles on Blu-ray before the end of 2007.

These stats are pretty shocking for Universal.

Here it is. Second figure is SI sales, last is YTD. As of Mar 18.

SUPERMAN RETURNS-BRY BRY 22,582 30,845 17,779 13,066
SUPERMAN RETURNS-HDD/DVD HDD 24,706 28,440 22,285 6,155Thanks. If I am reading that right (columns of 2206, SI, first 8 weeks, 2007), then after the first 8 weeks the rest of 2006 was close to 2:1 advantage for SR on Blu-ray and 2007 up until March 18th was also close to 2:1 advantage for Blu-ray, after the first 8 weeks had been 1:1.25 with the HD DVD side holding that advantage.

--Darin

I found this pretty interesting - the studio breakdown for the top 20 HD discs this year...

Warner has 5 titles (25%)
Sony has 5 titles (25%)
BVHE/Disney has 4 (20%)
Paramount has 2 (10%)
Lionsgate has 2 (10%)
Fox has 1 (5%)
BBC has 1 (5%)

Of course, the BBC is distributed through Warner, so they are the winners so far this year. Noticeable only by their absence are MGM and Universal.

In fact there are zero HD DVD exclusives in the top 20 titles. Though I imagine that the Matrix may have made it into that list by now..?Looks like Serenity is at #15 and looks like Universal's top title to me.

--Darin

If you're going to count The Matrix as a HD DVD exclusive then you might as well count Batman Begins as a HD DVD exclusive.

I expect to see both titles on Blu-ray before the end of 2007.

These stats are pretty shocking for Universal.

:) Indeed. In the Since Inception top 20 there are 3 HD DVD exclusives - one of which is Universal (Serenity) and the other two Warner (Troy and Batman Begins).

For this year's numbers, the number 20 BD disc sold 17,300, and the #1 Universal disc (Smokin Aces) sold 17,200.

For those interested in 'taste' for HD DVD buyers, yeah, Smokin Aces outsold Children of Men and all those other 'quality' Universal titles this year including Bourne 2, Good Shepherd and even King Kong.

In fact, surprising to me is that Kong is only #20 in both SI and YTD charts. Perhaps because so many were given away with 360 add ons?

Looks like Serenity is at #15 and looks like Universal's top title to me.

--Darin

# 15 is Black Hawk Down.

Are you looking at an HD DVD only chart?

Serenity is #13 on the HD DVD only chart for this year...

These stats are pretty shocking for Universal.

It's as I expected, without Spielberg's titles, Universal won't make a dent, no matter how many titles they release.

For those wondering about how older movies do, the oldest one I could find on either list was 1990 (Goodfellas on HD DVD).

--Darin

Updated/corrected

Titles format combined since interception through May 27, 2007
01. The Departed - 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
02. Superman Returns - 84,100 (44,800+39,300)
03. Casino Royale - BD - 83,600
04. Batman Begins - HD DVD - 53,500
05. Mission Impossible III - 51,300 (25,500+25,800)
06. Planet Earth - 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
07. Happy Feet - 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
08. Goodfellas - 38,200 (12,100+26,100)
09. The Prestige - BD - 34,700
10. The Fifth Element - BD - 33,800
11. The Last Samurai - 32,500 (10,100+22,400)
12. X-Men: The Last Stand - BD - 32,000
13. Underworld: Evolution - BD - 31,400
14. Ice Age: The Meltdown - BD - 28,300
15. Night at the Museum - BD - 28,100
16. Black Hawk Down - BD - 27,900
17. Talladega Nights - BD - 27,700
18. Babel - 27,700 (14,400+12,600)
19. Serenity - HD DVD - 26,200
20. Troy - HD DVD - 26,100
21. Crank - BD - 24,800
22. Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - BD - 23,700
23. Deja Vu - BD - 22,700
24. Terminator 2 - BD - 21,600
25. Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - BD - 21,100
26. Saw III - BD - 20,400
27. House of Flying Daggers - BD - 20,000
28. Apollo 13 - HD DVD - 19,900
29. The Bourne Supreme - HD DVD - 19,300
xx. V for Vendetta - HD DVD - 19,100
yy. Rocky Balboa - BD - 18,600
yy. Eragon - BD - 17,800
yy. The Pursuit of Happyness - BD - 17,800
yy. Apocalypto - BD - 17,300
xx. Smokin Aces - HD DVD - 17,200
xx. Miami Vice - HD DVD - 16,600
xx. The Polar Express - HD DVD - 16,500
xx. Training Day - HD DVD - 15,200
xx. Children of Men - HD DVD - 14,900
xx. The Phantom of the Opera - HD DVD - 14,700
xx. King Kong - HD DVD - 14,300
xx. The Good Shepherd - HD DVD - 10,800
xx. Lucky Number Slevin - HD DVD - 9,200
xx. The Ultimate Matrix Collection - HD DVD - 7,900
xx. The Mummy Returns - HD DVD - 7,300

This is corrected with Goodfellas, The Last Samurai and Babel added.

These didn't have Blu Ray numbers in the separate lists which I used to combine them. They are of course included in the combined list Home Media has.

Edit: had the format numbers for Goodfellas mixed up.

# 15 is Black Hawk Down.

Are you looking at an HD DVD only chart?

Serenity is #13 on the HD DVD only chart for this year...Sorry, I missed that you said "this year". I was looking at the, "Both formats since interception through May 27, 2007" chart. That one doesn't combine sales from both formats.

--Darin

These stats are pretty shocking for Universal.

Don't know this time (since we don't have full data) ... but Apr 18 data showed that an average Universal movie did no worse than a Disney or Fox movie. i.e. there is no real sales advantage to supporting BD over HD DVD ...

Don't know this time (since we don't have full data) ... but Apr 18 data showed that an average Universal movie did no worse than a Disney or Fox movie. i.e. there is no real sales advantage to supporting BD over HD DVD ...

So data from 2 months ago is more relevant than the most current data we have?

Casino Royale is selling pretty strong. Batman Begins would probably be #1 if Warner would put the IME on a separate track and came out with a Blu-ray now. Apocalypto has been pretty high on the last few weeks charts, so imagine it could have passed Planet Earth by now.

The Pirates DMC will probably be in the top 10 before too long, as well.

So data from 2 months ago is more relevant than the most current data we have?

Give me the avg for all movies, and then we will talk.

Give me the avg for all movies, and then we will talk.

The averages won't skew the data much.

While it seems clear that Universal has a large number of mediocre selling titles, a very decent percentage of the sales are in these higher selling titles...

:)
For those interested in 'taste' for HD DVD buyers, yeah, Smokin Aces outsold Children of Men and all those other 'quality' Universal titles this year including Bourne 2, Good Shepherd and even King Kong.



Maybe because it is actually a better movie, excellent in it's genre actually? But most likely because as been proven many times, new movies sell better than old ones even if they are only months old. That's actually bad taste in general but I'll admit that it's true.

But most likely because as been proven many times, new movies sell better than old ones even if they are only months old.

I agree with this for sure. The new titles are for the most part the key titles. Matrix and Pirates are exceptions rather than the rule.

The averages won't skew the data much.


What does that even mean ?

Check all the user reviews from Amazon. Theres plenty of upset people who bought it thinking it was a HD version of the DVD (like a SE) and once they opened it, amazon wont return it, so it is a done deal sale. I wish i could make it up, but go look for yourself. I'd say a HUGE chunk of the sales are from people who thought it was a SE DVD set.

88% of the reviewers gave it 4 or 5 stars.

What does that even mean ?

What I mean is this.

The top studios for HD sales are clearly Warner, Sony and Disney.

Getting the averages of all titles (that you said was needed to 'talk') will not change this.

Most of the quantity of movies sold are documented in the top 20.

For example, just the Top 5 titles sold a total of 173800 this year. That does not count all of the other Sony titles that are not in the top 20.

Now the BEST selling Universal title sold 17300 this year. That means that they need to make up 150,000 units sold with their other lower selling titles to reach what Sony has sold with their top 5 titles.

Now Sony also has a lot of titles that are not in the top 20 that 'cancel out' the Universal titles that are not in the top 20.

So, it is clear, that this swag of Universal titles which don't sell all that great will not help them climb up the ladder much. Their only hope would be to maybe sell more units than Lionsgate.

Let me know if you need further clarification.

Here's an attempt at total numbers including the last two weeks that aren't included in the totals for May 27.

I will do a revision of my estimates for previous weeks over the weekend. It does seem that despite the doubts of a few (or was it one) posters I managed to stay within a 5% margin of error over 5 weeks on all titles I have checked so far. Not that many checked admittedly :)

A quick guess is that my estimation for 15.000 NatM first week was a bit low. That should take care of most of the difference.

For now I'm mostly including titles that are in the top positions the last couple of weeks. More complete later.

The Departed - 103,100 (64,300+38,800)
Casino Royale - BD - 88,200 (passing Superman Returns, gaining about 1,000 on Departed each week)
Planet Earth - 58,900 (25,300+33,600) (passing Batman and MI3)
Batman Begins - HD DVD - 55,500
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - BD - 38,600
Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - BD - 33,700
Night at the Museum - BD - 30,800
Apocalypto - BD - 30,500
Deja Vu - BD - 24,900
Matrix ultimate 12,400
Matrix complete 10,300

Casino Royal should hit 100,000 in 4-5 weeks
Planet Earth could do it in 6-7 weeks although it's obviously less likely for PE to be able to keep up it's current pace
Neither Pirates movies will until the fall at best.

Planet Earth may pick up steam based on word of mouth... not sure if you can find it in stores but I hadn't thought to purchase it until I read AVS, and after mentioning it to a friend of mine, he'd recorded it on his DVR (in SD) and loves the series.

As far as inadvertent sales of discs to unsuspecting DVD owners, it's entirely possible that people will do this for both formats, though it's more likely to occur with HDDVD. Those DVDs will get returned, and will they still be counted as sales? I'm doubting that.

Well, Planet Earth at one end of the scale and Norbit at the other doesn't give you any clues? How about a difference in something called taste?

You realse game over's close when HD-DVD fans resort to such comments.

Once again, this list is based on units, If Planet Earth counted as 4 units, HD-DVD would have the #1 spot.

Once again, this list is based on units, If Planet Earth counted as 4 units, HD-DVD would have the #1 spot.

And if I was Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie would be my wife.

You realse game over's close when HD-DVD fans resort to such comments.

Care to call HD DVD dead so we can bookmark it?

Here's an attempt at total numbers including the last two weeks that aren't included in the totals for May 27.

I will do a revision of my estimates for previous weeks over the weekend. It does seem that despite the doubts of a few (or was it one) posters I managed to stay within a 5% margin of error over 5 weeks on all titles I have checked so far. Not that many checked admittedly :)

A quick guess is that my estimation for 15.000 NatM first week was a bit low. That should take care of most of the difference.

For now I'm mostly including titles that are in the top positions the last couple of weeks. More complete later.

The Departed - 103,100 (64,300+38,800)
Casino Royale - BD - 88,200 (passing Superman Returns, gaining about 1,000 on Departed each week)
Planet Earth - 58,900 (25,300+33,600) (passing Batman and MI3)
Batman Begins - HD DVD - 55,500
Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man - BD - 38,600
Pirates of the Carribean: Curse - BD - 33,700
Night at the Museum - BD - 30,800
Apocalypto - BD - 30,500
Deja Vu - BD - 24,900
Matrix ultimate 12,400
Matrix complete 10,300

Casino Royal should hit 100,000 in 4-5 weeks
Planet Earth could do it in 6-7 weeks although it's obviously less likely for PE to be able to keep up it's current pace
Neither Pirates movies will until the fall at best.

The PotC releases again shows the importance of new releases compared to catalogs. As far as catalog releases go, PotC will be about as high as you can get given enough time, primarily because they are still quite new.

I expect PotC3 and Spidey3 should have a better chance of cracking the #1 title if they are released day&date.

My theory : At this point, I wonder if even starwars or lotr can crack 100K if released in fall. It might be xmas before a catalog release can sell 100K on HDM (within a month).

The PotC releases again shows the importance of new releases compared to catalogs. As far as catalog releases go, PotC will be about as high as you can get given enough time, primarily because they are still quite new.

and why I won't be finished buying SD for a long, long time. Day and date releases rule SD too, but the SD buyer-base is also so big that support smaller titles.

I think the most important thing it points out is just how hideously small the HDM market is. :(

I just realized that this week's HMM has a ton of valuable unit per movie data : !!!
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/index.php?startpage=52

Compared against the last april numbers giant pdf, I think we just got a big shot at calculating actual numbers again .... Where's Kosty and nataraj? Lets whip up those spreadsheets!!! :D

I just realized that this week's HMM has a ton of valuable unit per movie data : !!!
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/index.php?startpage=52

Compared against the last april numbers giant pdf, I think we just got a big shot at calculating actual numbers again .... Where's Kosty and nataraj? Lets whip up those spreadsheets!!! :D

Did you read the last few pages? Yes, We should be able to work out a ton of stuff from this. Good thing it's a weekend :)

Until May 9 from estimates

Casino Royale 38,95 x 88,200 = 3,435,000
Planet Earth HD DVD 99,98 x 33,600 = 3,359,000

Sometime this past week Planet Earth HD DVD should have passed Casino Royal BD for single format revenue record. And yes I know both titles sold few copies at MSRP so actual dollars are less.

Per week averages for March 18-May 27 (10 weeks) by HD titles released in 2006.

This should give a decent idea of how titles that have been out for awhile are selling, especially as most are somewhat close to what the averages was for Jan 1-March 18 (first 11 weeks)

1,368 Batman Begins - HD DVD (1,233 first 11 weeks)
953 Superman Returns - BD (1,076)
952 Black Hawk Down - BD (1,029)
945 Fifth Element - BD (995)
777 X-Men - BD (871)
741 Troy - HD DVD (662)
718 Underworld - BD (910)
560 Goodfellas - HD DVD (533)
535 Superman Returns - HD DVD (548)
518 Serenity - HD DVD (462)
507 MI3 - HD DVD (467)
442 V for Vendetta - HD DVD (448)
411 Bourne Supremacy - HD DVD (381)
394 King Kong - HD DVD (338)
363 The Last Samurai - HD DVD (362)

It should be noted that although I've used titles from 2006 more of the HD DVD titles were released early that year and we all know the surge in BD players came late in the year. Every single BD titles on this list sold better the first 11 weeks while most HD DVD sold better the last 10 weeks. Nevertheless this should give some indication that most 'good' titles that have been out for while are selling roughly 500-1000 copies a week.

The last "good" figure we have is for Mar 18. BD was - 846,771. We now have 1,637,090 for May 27. The difference is 790,319. That is for 10 weeks - so an average of 79K. Definitely higher than our estimates.

I think now we have enough information to be able to back calculate to get better estimates. So, I've a project for the weekend ;)



The hard work you guys have put into your estimations has been really appreciated, but it looks like your numbers have been pretty far off the mark. Actual Blu-ray sales have been MUCH higher than your graphs have shown.

Also several regular posters in this thread have claimed that Blu-ray sales were "stagnant" and there was no growth.

Looks like the real numbers show that Blu-ray is growing very fast and has a healthy uptrend!! :)

The hard work you guys have put into your estimations has been really appreciated, but it looks like your numbers have been pretty far off the mark. Actual Blu-ray sales have been MUCH higher than your graphs have shown.

Also several regular posters in this thread have claimed that Blu-ray sales were "stagnant" and there was no growth.

Looks like the real numbers show that Blu-ray is growing very fast and has a healthy uptrend!! :)

If the numbers are too low for Blu Ray they are low for HD DVD as well. It is possible that the catalogue titles have been underestimated. The top titles are pretty much correct since we have other figures confirming those.

We can't just take all of these figures as the truth either. There are stuff in the original Sony released report that doesn't add up with the new numbers. For example:

Batman Begins 53,500 total with 25,900 YTD. That should leave 27,600 sold in 2006. Problem is The Sony released report had Batman at 22.088 for 2006.

The Fifth Element 33,800 total with 20,900 YTD. That should leave 12,900 sold in 2006. Sony released report had 10,352.

Not sure what's up since all of this doesn't add up. Maybe the SI for March 18 doesn't add up either? We have to see if that can be figure out but i wouldn't bet my farm on those totals just yet. For all we know maybe Sony forgot 20-30 percent of the 2006 figures. I'm not saying that's what happened but something is not right.

Edit: We should also have had a higher number each week for the quality catalogue titles to support your theory about rising sales. As per my list above we clearly don't.

Batman Begins 53,500 total with 25,900 YTD. That should leave 27,600 sold in 2006. Problem is The Sony released report had Batman at 22.088 for 2006.

The Fifth Element 33,800 total with 20,900 YTD. That should leave 12,900 sold in 2006. Sony released report had 10,352.


It looks like the SI figure given by HMM is their interpolated figure - not Nielsen number.

This is similar to the way Nielsen had projected and said BD had sold 1M.

Grubert, can you confirm whether the SI numbers are st. from Nielsen or projected by HMM ?

Median sales per title should give us how studios are doing overall. Clearly, Universal does not have the day-date releases of the other studios. But 2 things stick out to me - first is how well Warner is doing relative to others and second is how close sales are for common titles in both formats. The relative sales of same titles are easily the best gauge of the market size of either format.

If anything, this report should be telling studios that consumer support for both formats are the same at this point.

This also explains why the neutral studios have not changed their positions based on sales so far.

As for Universal, we have to see what their median sales per title is. They don't have any blockbuster titles so far. However, their catalog titles should be doing as well as anyone elses....

If anything, this report should be telling studios that consumer support for both formats are the same at this point.

And that the base is small.

As I've said before I doubt avg movie is making any money at all. So support for one format or the other (or both) is purely strategic / tactical at this point.

It looks like the SI figure given by HMM is their interpolated figure - not Nielsen number.

This is similar to the way Nielsen had projected and said BD had sold 1M.

Grubert, can you confirm whether the SI numbers are st. from Nielsen or projected by HMM ?

That's possible but it still wouldn't explain the differences for individual titles as per those examples does it. Unless ALL May 27 figures are projected. That doesn't fit that well either though.

Edit: Sorry you meant SI per individual title? Have to think about that. if that's the case we can't get as much out of these numbers as we hoped

Blu-ray does have the buy 2 get 1 free sale.

look at the top 10, how many of them are part of that promotion?

I thought you got some right away, like at Best Buy? I know the 5 free come later but I was thinking there were other free movie promo's as well with purchase of a player. (at one time it was 9, 4 now 5 by mail iirc)

the 5 free are not counted but any other promotion like the 4 free are scanned when you buy the player and so they are in the POS system

If anything, this report should be telling studios that consumer support for both formats are the same at this point.

Departed: 62.7k vs 37.8k
Happy Feet: 25.5k vs 14.6k
Superman Returns: 22.6k vs. 11.5k
Planet Earth: 25.4k vs 19.3k

Aside from Planet Earth, HD DVD looks like it is behind on these titles by at least the typical 60:40 sales ratio.

Is 60:40 now considered 'the same'?

I found this pretty interesting - the studio breakdown for the top 20 HD discs this year...

Warner has 5 titles (25%)
Sony has 5 titles (25%)
BVHE/Disney has 4 (20%)
Paramount has 2 (10%)
Lionsgate has 2 (10%)
Fox has 1 (5%)
BBC has 1 (5%)

Of course, the BBC is distributed through Warner, so they are the winners so far this year. Noticeable only by their absence are MGM and Universal.

In fact there are zero HD DVD exclusives in the top 20 titles. Though I imagine that the Matrix may have made it into that list by now..?

wasn't Casino Royal MGM/Columbia?

Is 60:40 now considered 'the same'?

depends on the question. If you are an HD DVD fanboy and movies then they are the same, if you count a subset of devices that can play disks then it is the most important difference because you can then make moronic comments how you have a bigger % and larger attachment rates for them and try and convince other more moronic people that HD DVD is not floundering like it is

As for Universal, we have to see what their median sales per title is. They don't have any blockbuster titles so far. However, their catalog titles should be doing as well as anyone elses....

In what respect "doing as well as"? Certainly not in volume terms.

Let's take a recent catalogue title from Universal: Bruce Almighty

Universal (in the USA) are only selling this title on HD DVD.

Would this title sell more or less if it were released on both formats?
Would this title sell more or less if it were released on only Blu-ray?

The answer to both those is it would sell more! This applies to every single title that Universal sell. They would sell more copies if they released on both formats or only on Blu-ray.

Being a HD DVD exclusive ensures you will have the lowest sales volumes. That is what the figures are clearly telling the studios.

The Blu-ray exclusives will say they support only Blu-ray because they can sell to a much larger pool of customers and the format offers potentially stronger copy protection. You may not like them but those are reasonable arguments from the studio perspective.

What is Universal's reasonable argument? I don't remember seeing any advertising from HD DVD's only exclusive major studio in the latest issue of HMM, so perhaps they are struggling to come up with any good reasons to continue selling low volumes of their titles. Frankly, it's a little embarassing for them.

depends on the question. If you are an HD DVD fanboy and movies then they are the same, if you count a subset of devices that can play disks then it is the most important difference because you can then make moronic comments how you have a bigger % and larger attachment rates for them and try and convince other more moronic people that HD DVD is not floundering like it is
Actually, with those numbers I'd say both formats are "floundering". Not enough player sales for HD-DVD right now to make studios notice. Blu-Ray has 1.5 million plus players, and can only sell 47,000 copies of it's two biggest movies combined (first week sales). Both are floundering.

There are several titles that are sold on both formats and the HD DVD version sells better. This is another misinformation that any title will sell more on BD. The facts shows that the overall market for similar titles on both formats are about the same for most titles.

The avg. Uni catalog title should sell the same as a BD exclusive catalog.

Reason to support HD DVD - lower replication cost means higher margin and better pricing flexibility. Combo disks means that one SKU for any new title will play in the largest selection of possible devices.

Seems reasonable to me. No need for expensive new replication plants and complex authoring tools with lower margin sales with the same end product as the more efficient software. As long as you believe that BD+ isn't important, supporting BD exclusively is foolish. IMO.

The same titles are already selling about the same quality and $ value on both formats. So once Sony subsidy ends why should a studio be excited to be BD exclusive? Given that the PS3 is turning out to be a flop....the 1st pick of the draft, the saviour of the franchise has turned out to be a flop. Now what! Trade it for the BDP 300 and see if that works....

Reason to support HD DVD - lower replication cost means higher margin and better pricing flexibility. Combo disks means that one SKU for any new title will play in the largest selection of possible devices.


Are you insinuating that Combo discs will replace the DVD? This will NEVER EVER Happen! I worked at Blockbuster during my high school years when DVD was just getting some recognition. We had major headaches over flipper discs: wrong movies being returned, wrong movies being packed in the wrong case, etc.. Consumers in general are not as tidy with their DVDs as enthusiasts are. They WILL NOT tollerate the lack of graphics. It will be a nightmare scenario for the studio that first does this.

Edit: Sorry you meant SI per individual title? Have to think about that. if that's the case we can't get as much out of these numbers as we hoped

I first meant SI total - but then ofcourse your examples are for individual titles. Which would mean they projected even the individual titles - Not sure what to make of that.

PS : For eg. the Apr 22 issue gave figures for Q1 - including SI format totals and individual totals.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom042207/index.php?startpage=2

The figures were based on "Nielsen data and studio estimates".

This is my post from that time.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10350285&&#post10350285

Quote:

Total discs sold Q1
BD: 832,530
HD: 359,300

Total discs SI as of end of Q1
BD: 1.2 million
HD: 937,500


These are obviously not Videoscan numbers. I think these are projected HMM numbers. From Sony report we get as of Mar 18th 834K for BD. It couldn't have gone to 1.2M (i.e. about 400K) in just two more weeks.

The totals were about 30% higher than Nielsen numbers.

If the same ratio holds good, we get 1.26M for BD SI (from 1.64M) ... and instead of 79K avg per month, we get about 60K avg per month. Still higher than my estimates, but not as much as 79K. Monthly figure comes to (1,260,000-837,000)/10 = 41,000.

One more thing. My estimate for May 27th is 1.29M for BD SI. Little more than what we get above using the 30% figure - closer to 25%.

I first meant SI total - but then ofcourse your examples are for individual titles. Which would mean they projected even the individual titles - Not sure what to make of that.


Nataraj: depends on if they are projected or not. It could be that they have numbers from other sources as well.

The nice thing is that it looks like we might be getting numbers on a regular basis (they said the HD supplement will be by quarter.

are all HD DVD fanboys always full of sh!t? how are they the two biggest movies if Casino royal sold more then both combined.

As for the # of players? funny how when it suits fanboys that all the PS3s are counted
Besides the Spiderman movies which aren't out yet, I see the Pirates movies as the biggest draw for Blu-Ray. Feel free to disagree, but "fanboy" and "full of sh!t" for calling the Pirates movies as potential big sellers for a new format is a little harsh.

As for number of players is concerned, either the PS3 plays Blu-Ray or it doesn't (and it does) so I'm calling it a Blu-Ray player. Sure, it won't be used as such by all the buyers of PS3 systems, but I'd be concerned that more PS3 owners haven't bought the big titles. I come on and say both formats aren't doing so well, and guess that bit of reality can't be handled. Who's the "fanboy?"

I first meant SI total - but then ofcourse your examples are for individual titles. Which would mean they projected even the individual titles - Not sure what to make of that.

PS : For eg. the Apr 22 issue gave figures for Q1 - including SI format totals and individual totals.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom042207/index.php?startpage=2

The figures were based on "Nielsen data and studio estimates".

This is my post from that time.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10350285&&#post10350285



The totals were about 30% higher than Nielsen numbers.

If the same ratio holds good, we get 1.26M for BD SI (from 1.64M) ... and instead of 79K avg per month, we get about 60K avg per month. Still higher than my estimates, but not as much as 79K.

One more thing. My estimate for May 27th is 1.29M for BD SI. Little more than what we get above using the 30% figure - closer to 25%.

Only checked a few titles but they seem to be off by 20-30% for 2006. So that fits with the difference for total SI.

Problem is that it doesn't seem to add up either way. If March 18 was Nielsen only and May 27 is Nielsen plus projections we'll have a problem with fitting the 100.000 Departed, 40.000 Planet Earth, 45.000 (previously 47) Pirates and whatever Casino Royale number we got a while back.

Unless all of those have been with projections as well in which case we'll have to lower the estimates for the top sellers (to fit with weekly Nielsen) which makes it hard to get anything to fit.

My head hurts.

Lets take a look at the numbers given on Apr 22 and comparing to Mar 18 - this time for Batman.

According to HMM Batman sold 44,590 SI till Apr 1 '07. According to Sony/Nielsen the total was 34,313 till Mar '18. For May 27th HMM figure is 53,500.

If these are numbers from the same source, we would have ...

Weeks Total Avg
20 Weeks 34,314 1,700
2 Weeks 10,177 5,088
8 Weeks 8,910 1,113

I think we can only compare HMM figures of May 27 to their Apr 1st figures, not to Nielsen/Sony's Mar 18.

Only checked a few titles but they seem to be off by 20-30% for 2006. So that fits with the difference for total SI.

Yes - a 25% difference looks good.

Problem is that it doesn't seem to add up either way. If March 18 was Nielsen only and May 27 is Nielsen plus projections we'll have a problem with fitting the 100.000 Departed, 40.000 Planet Earth, 45.000 (previously 47) Pirates and whatever Casino Royale number we got a while back.

Were all these from HMM ?

Lets take a look at the numbers given on Apr 22 and comparing to Mar 18 - this time for Batman.

According to HMM Batman sold 44,590 SI till Apr 1 '07. According to Sony/Nielsen the total was 34,313 till Mar '18. For May 27th HMM figure is 53,500.

If these are numbers from the same source, we would have ...

Weeks Total Avg
20 Weeks 34,314 1,700
2 Weeks 10,177 5,088
8 Weeks 8,910 1,113

I think we can only compare HMM figures of May 27 to their Apr 1st figures, not to Nielsen/Sony's Mar 18.

You might be right in which case the March 18 numbers released by Sony might be the only 'Nielsen only' numbers we've ever gotten.

I'll try that tomorrow to see if I can figure something out.

Let's take a recent catalogue title from Universal: Bruce Almighty

Universal (in the USA) are only selling this title on HD DVD.

Would this title sell more or less if it were released on both formats?
Would this title sell more or less if it were released on only Blu-ray?

The answer to both those is it would sell more! This applies to every single title that Universal sell. They would sell more copies if they released on both formats or only on Blu-ray.

Being a HD DVD exclusive ensures you will have the lowest sales volumes. That is what the figures are clearly telling the studios.

What figures ?

The only complete set of figures we got (Apr 18) clearly shows Avg universal movie sales is no less than Disney and Fox ....

And the avg sales is too small to be a meaningful revenue contributor. Thats all any studio needs to know.

BTW, Universal most definitely made money by selling 200K or more of KingKong to Microsoft ....

Unless all of those have been with projections as well in which case we'll have to lower the estimates for the top sellers (to fit with weekly Nielsen) which makes it hard to get anything to fit.

My head hurts.You can't count on the numbers being fixed. Data from retailers, distributors and manufacturers comes in to data collectors like Nielsen over a period of time, causing back data to be refreshed with updated numbers. Sometimes errors in the data are found and fixed, which also results in the updating of previous data.

The totals were about 30% higher than Nielsen numbers.

If the same ratio holds good, we get 1.26M for BD SI (from 1.64M) ... and instead of 79K avg per month, we get about 60K avg per month. Still higher than my estimates, but not as much as 79K.

One more thing. My estimate for May 27th is 1.29M for BD SI. Little more than what we get above using the 30% figure - closer to 25%.

I take it the 79K (or 60K) figure is weekly, not monthly? HD disc is in serious trouble if they can only scrape together 20k sales per week!

Using a non-extrapolated SI figure (ie: raw Nielsen number) of 1.26M for Blu-ray gives us approx. 900K for HD DVD using the current 59:41 SI ratio. That means that the HD DVD promo group did not use Nielsen figures when claiming 1 million sales - they did exactly what HMM have done.

Assuming Nielsen's HD disc market coverage is 70% seems reasonable.

In what respect "doing as well as"? Certainly not in volume terms.

Let's take a recent catalogue title from Universal: Bruce Almighty

Universal (in the USA) are only selling this title on HD DVD.

Would this title sell more or less if it were released on both formats?
Would this title sell more or less if it were released on only Blu-ray?

The answer to both those is it would sell more! This applies to every single title that Universal sell. They would sell more copies if they released on both formats or only on Blu-ray.

Being a HD DVD exclusive ensures you will have the lowest sales volumes. That is what the figures are clearly telling the studios.

The Blu-ray exclusives will say they support only Blu-ray because they can sell to a much larger pool of customers and the format offers potentially stronger copy protection. You may not like them but those are reasonable arguments from the studio perspective.

What is Universal's reasonable argument? I don't remember seeing any advertising from HD DVD's only exclusive major studio in the latest issue of HMM, so perhaps they are struggling to come up with any good reasons to continue selling low volumes of their titles. Frankly, it's a little embarassing for them.

This pretty much sums it up :)

Universal's behavior would be extremely strange if there wasn't an obvious explanation:

Microsoft. :( If it wasn't for MS Universal would be releasing on both formats. Makes you wonder how big the payoff is.

What figures ?

The only complete set of figures we got (Apr 18) clearly shows Avg universal movie sales is no less than Disney and Fox ....

And the avg sales is too small to be a meaningful revenue contributor. Thats all any studio needs to know.

BTW, Universal most definitely made money by selling 200K or more of KingKong to Microsoft ....

I doubt KK was sold to MS at full cost - there would be a very generous discount - IMHO!

I will say that using KK as the free gift was a crazy idea. Better to give away lesser titles and use your big hitters for a seperate launch.

It's true that Sony did give away (up to) 500K copies of Casino Royale's in Europe but that was really an incentive to sign up online. The movie was not packaged with the PS3.

Universal's behavior would be extremely strange if there wasn't an obvious explanation:

Microsoft.

The most obvious explanation for your post is that you hate MS. Your posting history proves it. Afterall you are completely ignoring my facts/numbers based post above about Avg movie sales of universal / disney / fox.

I doubt KK was sold to MS at full cost - there would be a very generous discount - IMHO!

Depends on what you mean by "full cost" :p

BTW, from the above post ...

If it wasn't for MS Universal would be releasing on both formats. Makes you wonder how big the payoff is.

So, can you guys decide whether KK was sold at "full cost" or Universal got a big payoff :D

I take it the 79K (or 60K) figure is weekly, not monthly? HD disc is in serious trouble if they can only scrape together 20k sales per week!

Sorry, that was a wrong calculation. I've updated the post.

Monthly figure comes to (1,260,000-837,000)/10 = 41,000.

Just a note on all these comparisons with old figures.. these new ones are Nielsen figures, as were the March Sony ones but if i remember correctly, the april HMM figures were derived from Nielsen and HMM's own studio research figures so i think the only pure Nielsen figures are these current ones and the Sony ones.

Using a non-extrapolated SI figure (ie: raw Nielsen number) of 1.26M for Blu-ray gives us approx. 900K for HD DVD using the current 59:41 SI ratio. That means that the HD DVD promo group did not use Nielsen figures when claiming 1 million sales - they did exactly what HMM have done.The email from a marketing company the HD DVD group uses even said that they used POS data from 3 companies along with Nielsen data to get to 998k for HD DVD.

--Darin

I am not sure what posting during office hours has to do with anything. I post during office hours, do NOT get compensated for my participation in this or any forum, my company has nothing to gain from this format war and yes, I make a decent 6 figure annual income andhave been making a 6 figure + income for the past 10 years.....so I am not going to suffer if one format or the other wins. But personally, there are way too many BDA posters who refuse to disclose who they work for and what their agenda is and yet we are suposed to believe their info! Give me a break. Credibility or lack of credibility does not live on one side alone, if anything the BDA is engaging in a malicious misinformation campaign using thier own employees as forum posters, while MFST employees have the decency to at least disclose their affiliation - and by and large are civilized and logical in their postings. Whether you agree with them or not.

IMHO, MSFT has made a positive contribution to the format wars in pushing better quality products, faster and cheaper....what has Sony done other than trying to carve out a cartel and discouraging and mocking competition. I guess we have a lot of folks here in love with OPEC and want to see that model replicated in home video as well....

Hopefully the rest of the folks will see through this agenda.

Just a note on all these comparisons with old figures.. these new ones are Nielsen figures, as were the March Sony ones but if i remember correctly, the april HMM figures were derived from Nielsen and HMM's own studio research figures so i think the only pure Nielsen figures are these current ones and the Sony ones.

Do you have any inside info on this? As been posted above March 17 and May 27 can't both be pure Nielsen. If you don't believe us try to figure out what Batman (or any other movie) has sold in 2007 and what it then should have sold in 2006 to reach it's total. It's a simple subtraction with the newest numbers. Then check what the March 17 numbers say. They just don't go together.

The email from a marketing company the HD DVD group uses even said that they used POS data from 3 companies along with Nielsen data to get to 998k for HD DVD.

--Darin

So, is that POS data from 4 companies? Who are the others? I suppose one must be Rentrak.

The general point was that when the 1 million Blu-ray figure was announced they used basic (unmodified) Nielsen data. HD DVD countered with Nielsen + some others and a little wishful thinking and the 'meeja' spun that into a 2,000 unit sales gap!

Of course, even a small Patagonian Tree Frog could have just checked the actual Nielsen SI ratios and realised that suggesting a 2,000 sales gap would be a gross distortion of reality.

Wow, some interesting Nielsen weekly sales numbers, showing a whopping 2% gain of BD sales. This is all interesting, given that HD-DVD dropped player prices to as low as $199 for an HD-DVD player -- yet they are even at best, and actually losing average ground:

May 6:
http://www.tsurugi.co.uk/misc/hdmarketshare_5-06.jpg
Source: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052707/index.php

May 13:
http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t147/Greenmatiz2/Nielsen513.jpg
Source: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052007/index.php

May 20:
http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t147/Greenmatiz2/Nielsen520.jpg
Source: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom052707/index.php

May 27, which included the release of the two Pirates movies on BR:
http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t147/Greenmatiz2/nielsen527.jpg
Source: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom060307/index.php

June 3, which was more-or-less a dead release week for BR, and included an organized buy-day for HD-DVD and a player price drop, putting the lowest priced HD-DVD player at half of the nearest BR player:
http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t147/Greenmatiz2/niel.jpg
Source: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061007/index.php

June 10, which included the Sony 2-for-1 sale (although no titles from that sale were in the top 5 for sales of BR that week):

http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t147/Greenmatiz2/June10.jpg
Source: http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/index.php

For now.

For now.

And the past 6+ months.

The hard work you guys have put into your estimations has been really appreciated, but it looks like your numbers have been pretty far off the mark. Actual Blu-ray sales have been MUCH higher than your graphs have shown.

Also several regular posters in this thread have claimed that Blu-ray sales were "stagnant" and there was no growth.

Looks like the real numbers show that Blu-ray is growing very fast and has a healthy uptrend!! :)
There are two sets of numbers. The raw nielsen numbers only record the point of sale numbers from participating retailers (about 60% of total for DVD, unknown for HDM).

If we take a normal extrapolation of HDM=DVD, I suppose you could do RAW*(100/60 ) to arrive at the 'REAL' numbers. But this number is disputed by some since the total RAW numbers are still small enough to be unpredictable.

Nielsen gets $100K(?) from each subscribe, so the Nielsen people do get upset at attempts by people to reverse engineer the numbers. Often very publicly upset. ;)

Sometimes you don't know if quoted numbers in articles are RAW or EXTRAPOLATED or ACTUAL numbers and it makes it confusing. Studios also sometimes use SHIPPED vs SOLDTHROUGH numbers interchangably. Eg : the frequently quoted 100K Casino Royale in week1 was obviously shipped numbers, and RAW (or sellthrough?) sold for week1 was only about 50K(?). RAW sold so far appears to be 83K(?) If combined red&blue Departed RAW numbers crossed 100K, then actual numbers are likely higher.

I am not sure what posting during office hours has to do with anything. Just that you're being a bum at work and getting paid for it. ("You" as in a general those-who-post-during-office-hours-and-has-nothing-better-to-do you) :D Been there, done that, got paid. :D

But personally, there are way too many BDA posters who refuse to disclose who they work for and what their agenda is and yet we are suposed to believe their info! Give me a break. Completely off-topic but is it time for another witch hunt again? In the memo I got, the schedule was not included... :cool:

IMHO, MSFT has made a positive contribution to the format wars in pushing better quality products, faster and cheaper....what has Sony done other than trying to carve out a cartel and discouraging and mocking competition. I'll be a mindmelder and transmit to you one name. Transmitting... transmitting... There ya go. You got it. :) Yay!


fuad

So, is that POS data from 4 companies? Who are the others? I suppose one must be Rentrak.Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that they were POS companies. I could look back at the email, but I am being lazy and I remember Universal and Toshiba being mentioned along with another company that provided them data along with Nielsen.
Of course, even a small Patagonian Tree Frog could have just checked the actual Nielsen SI ratios and realised that suggesting a 2,000 sales gap would be a gross distortion of reality.It seems that it was too much to ask based on some of the posts around here and one writers interpretation (or misinterpretation actually) of what the email from the marketing company said. The first time I read it I thought it was pretty obvious that they were likely doing an apples to oranges comparison.

--Darin

This chart shows it a bit better. Take the June numbers into account, and the gap widens more at the end.

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/170/neilsonhdmarketsharejunwh9.jpg

As far as Rentrak, I found something interesting on page 6 of this Home Media Magazine issue.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/
To help offset the eroding PPT business, Rentrak is expanding data monitoring of online rental services run by Blockbuster Inc. and Netflix.--Darin

As far as Rentrak, I found something interesting on page 6 of this Home Media Magazine issue.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/
--Darin

Thanks for picking up on that article, interesting. Unfortunately online rental wouldn't do us much good for now.

As far at Rentrak goes. Have any actual numbers released come from them? For all we know their numbers would be as correct as Nielsen it's just that we don't seem to have any. Their top 10 list can certainly be different.

Besides the Spiderman movies which aren't out yet, I see the Pirates movies as the biggest draw for Blu-Ray.

David Scott: why do you need to decide what is the biggest draw? we have the top BD movies

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom061707/index.php?startpage=52

we have the sales numbers and ranking on them

POTC: DMC was 7 for YTD and 15 for SI.
POTC: TCOBP was 11 and 18 respectively

if they were on HD DVD
they would be 4 & 5 YTD and 9& 11 SI


PS the actual two best sellers were roughly 3x what the two Pirates movies did.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that they were POS companies. I could look back at the email, but I am being lazy and I remember Universal and Toshiba being mentioned along with another company that provided them data along with Nielsen.

Darin, interesting, maybe my hypothesis was closer then what some brain dead fanboy without any integrity might think.

Darin, interesting, maybe my hypothesis was closer then what some brain dead fanboy without any integrity might think.I haven't looked back at your hypothesis, but this is the part of the email I was referring to:
But in the wake of Blu-ray’s Monday announcement of hitting 1 million units sold, we had to point out some of our own interesting observations from the latest Nielsen stats and from point-of-sales data compiled by Universal, Warner and Toshiba.

First is that HD DVD titles are now at 998,059 units sold – a mere 2,000 units shy of Blu-ray’s announcement from Monday.You may notice that they never said sales were within 2k, only that HD DVD was within 2k of Blu-ray's announcement (which was a round number and so not an indication of exactly 1,000,000), based on observations that used more than Nielsen stats for the HD DVD side.

--Darin

It seems my home PC chose the wrong weekend to die. ;)

The market research staff at Home Media Research outdid itself this time.

I've extracted the sales for titles released this year.

Blu-ray
1. Casino Royale (Sony) 83,600
2. The Departed (Warner) 62,700
3. The Prestige (Disney) 34,700
4. Night at the Museum (Fox) 28,100
5. Happy Feet (Warner) 25,500
6. Crank (Lionsgate) 24,800
7. PotC: Dead Man's Chest (Disney) 23,700
8. Déjà Vu (Disney) 22,700
9. PotC: Curse Black Pearl (Disney) 21,100
10. Saw III (Lionsgate) 20,400
11. Planet Earth (BBC/Warner) 19,300
12. Rocky Balboa (Sony) 18,600
13. Eragon (Fox) 17,800
14. The Pursuit of Happyness (Sony) 17,800
15. Apocalypto (Disney) 17,300

HD DVD
1. The Departed (Warner) 37,800
2. Planet Earth (BBC/Warner) 25,400
3. Smokin' Aces (Universal) 17,200
4. Children of Men (Universal) 14,900
5. Happy Feet (Warner) 14,600
6. Babel (Paramount) 12,600
7. The Good Shepherd (Universal) 10,800
8. Lucky Number Slevin (Weinstein) 9,200
9. The Ultimate Matrix Coll. (Warner) 7,900

We have more titles on the BD list because on the HD DVD YTD chart there are a lot of 2006 titles.

The Complete Matrix Trilogy didn't hit the top 9?

Blu-Ray #15. Apocalypto (Disney) 17,300
vs.
HD-DVD #3. Smokin' Aces (Universal) 17,200

:eek:

The Complete Matrix Trilogy didn't hit the top 9?

Nope, the top 20 HD DVD sellers has King Kong at #20 with 7,100. So the CMT did 7,000 or less (as of May 27, of course).

Another factoid: three quarters of BD's top 20 list YTD are recent (this year) releases, whereas over half of HD DVD's top 20 list are last year's releases.

Back to the week ended June 10 and aligning reference points we have some more info:

1. Apocalypto BD 100
2. POTC: DMC BD 98.55
3. POTC: CBP BD 84.33
4. Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5. Norbit BD 77.78
6. Blood Diamond BD 74.95
7. Planet Earth BD 62.17
8. The Messengers BD 51.05
9. Casino Royale BD 44.44
10. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65

xx Norbit HD DVD 38.18
xx Ultimate Matrix Collection HD DVD 27.53
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HD DVD 26.05
xx Complete Matrix Trilogy HD DVD 24.11

I haven't looked back at your hypothesis, but this is the part of the email I was referring to:
You may notice that they never said sales were within 2k, only that HD DVD was within 2k of Blu-ray's announcement (which was a round number and so not an indication of exactly 1,000,000), based on observations that used more than Nielsen stats for the HD DVD side.

--Darin

:confused: I think you just indulged in a bit of tautology there!

I think if most people read the following:

But in the wake of Blu-ray’s Monday announcement of hitting 1 million units sold, we had to point out some of our own interesting observations from the latest Nielsen stats and from point-of-sales data compiled by Universal, Warner and Toshiba.

First is that HD DVD titles are now at 998,059 units sold – a mere 2,000 units shy of Blu-ray’s announcement from Monday.

Unless they had a good idea of the real Nielsen ratios the only inference that could be drawn from the above is that HD DVD and Blu-ray were practically level on sales.

Hopefully you're not defending the last paragraph that includes the highly misleading statement "a mere 2,000 units shy". There is no doubt in my mind what impression the author wanted to give when these words were written.

Obviously this twaddle came from the HD DVD promo group and their job is to spin for HD DVD. This time I think they simply came out looking like fools.

This is the top 20 YTD through 5/27. Where applicable I've included disaggregated sales in brackets (BD+HD DVD).

1. The Departed 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
2. Casino Royale 83,600
3. Planet Earth 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
4. Happy Feet 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
5. The Prestige 34,700
6. Superman Returns 34,100 (22,600+11,500)
7. Night at the Museum 28,100
8. Babel 27,000 (14,400+12,600)
9. Batman Begins 25,900
10. Crank 24,800
11. PotC: Dead Man's Chest 23,700
12. Goodfellas 23,300 (12,100+11,200)
13. Mission: Impossible III 22,900 (13,100+9,800)
14. Déjà Vu 22,700
15. Black Hawk Down 21,600
16. PotC: Curse Black Pearl 21,100
17. The Fifth Element 20,900
18. Saw III 20,400
19. Underworld: Evolution 19,100
20. Rocky Balboa 18,600

Nope, the top 20 HD DVD sellers has King Kong at #20 with 7,100. So the CMT did 7,000 or less (as of May 27, of course).

Another factoid: three quarters of BD's top 20 list YTD are recent (this year) releases, whereas over half of HD DVD's top 20 list are last year's releases.

Weird, I figured more people would of purchased the complete version over the ultimate for a number of reasons. The Complete Trilogy is less expensive, the Complete has disc art and the Ultimate has flippers, none of the extra specials are in HD, no HD animatrix.

Nope, the top 20 HD DVD sellers has King Kong at #20 with 7,100. So the CMT did 7,000 or less (as of May 27, of course).

Another factoid: three quarters of BD's top 20 list YTD are recent (this year) releases, whereas over half of HD DVD's top 20 list are last year's releases.

Interesting. So catalog isn't selling well in either format? New releases are generating far more sales? If so, I'm not surprised since that is essentially my buying habit ~ 95% or so of my BDs were new releases.

Whatever the reason, the Ultimate Collection has consistently outsold the Complete Trilogy.

Initial post updated. Some of the unit sales information has been posted on the second post, so don't miss it.

Updated/corrected

Titles format combined since interception through May 27, 2007
01. The Departed - 100,500 (62,700+37,800)
02. Superman Returns - 84,100 (44,800+39,300)
03. Casino Royale - BD - 83,600
04. Batman Begins - HD DVD - 53,500
05. Mission Impossible III - 51,300 (25,500+25,800)
06. Planet Earth - 44,700 (19,300+25,400)
07. Happy Feet - 40,100 (25,500+14,600)
08. Goodfellas - 38,200 (12,100+26,100)
09. The Prestige - BD - 34,700
10. The Fifth Element - BD - 33,800
11. The Last Samurai - 32,500 (10,100+22,400)
12. X-Men: The Last Stand - BD - 32,000
13. Underworld: Evolution - BD - 31,400
14. Ice Age: The Meltdown - BD - 28,300
15. Night at the Museum - BD - 28,100
16. Black Hawk Down - BD - 27,900
17. Talladega Nights - BD - 27,700
18. Babel - 27,700 (14,400+12,600)
19. Serenity - HD DVD - 26,200
20. Troy - HD DVD - 26,100


To me, this is the most important list. It shows how important Blu-ray releases have been able to stand on their own, as well as how important Blu-ray is to Warner and Paramount. I can actually see Serenity and Troy being knocked off that list shortly (if not already) by the two Pirates movies.

To me, this is the most important list. It shows how important Blu-ray releases have been able to stand on their own, as well as how important Blu-ray is to Warner and Paramount. I can actually see Serenity and Troy being knocked off that list shortly (if not already) by the two Pirates movies.

Definitely. The Pirates movies sold over 21,000 units each on its first week so it is highly likely that they sold 5,000 over the next couple weeks.

Weird, I figured more people would of purchased the complete version over the ultimate for a number of reasons. The Complete Trilogy is less expensive, the Complete has disc art and the Ultimate has flippers, none of the extra specials are in HD, no HD animatrix.

Exactly. I don't see the value of the ultimate pack. The complete set is more my cup of tea. Mainly because it has disc art.

Blu-Ray #15. Apocalypto (Disney) 17,300
vs.
HD-DVD #3. Smokin' Aces (Universal) 17,200

:eek:

There's the format war for you. I'm actually shocked that a garbage movie like Smokin Aces outsold Children of Men.

Back to the week ended June 10 and aligning reference points we have some more info:

1. Apocalypto BD 100
2. POTC: DMC BD 98.55
3. POTC: CBP BD 84.33
4. Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5. Norbit BD 77.78
6. Blood Diamond BD 74.95
7. Planet Earth BD 62.17
8. The Messengers BD 51.05
9. Casino Royale BD 44.44
10. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65

xx Norbit HD DVD 38.18
xx Ultimate Matrix Collection HD DVD 27.53
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HD DVD 26.05
xx Complete Matrix Trilogy HD DVD 24.11

Not to call out the obvious, but isn't HMM's numbers for the week of June 10th, obviously in error?

HMM lists the Top 10 hi-def discs (both formats combined) as:

1. Apocalypto BD 100
2. POTC: DMC BD 98.55
3. POTC: CBP BD 84.33
4. Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5. Norbit BD 77.78
6. Blood Diamond BD 74.95
7. Planet Earth BD 62.17
8. The Messengers BD 51.05
9. Casino Royale BD 44.44
10. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65

Then they list the Top 5 Blu-ray only discs for the same period as:

1. Apocalypto BD 100
2. POTC: DMC BD 98.55
3. POTC: CBP BD 84.33
4. Norbit BD 77.78
5. Blood Diamond BD 74.95

It's not possible that the index number on all 5 releases are identical on both the BD only list and the overall Top 10 list. It would mean HD DVD sold 0 discs for the week, an obvious error, since the weekly ratio is not 100/0.

So which list is in error, the overall Top 10 hi-def discs, or the Top 5 BD discs? One of them must be in error though. My suspicion is that it is the overall Top 10 list.

Grubert, since you have contacts with HMM, could you please determine which list (Top 5 BD or Top 10 Hi-def) is in error?

It's not possible that the index number on all 5 releases are identical on both the BD only list and the overall Top 10 list.

Yes, if the top-selling BD title is also the top-selling aggregate HD title and is an exclusive BD title.

It would mean HD DVD sold 0 discs for the week, an obvious error, since the weekly ratio is not 100/0.

You misunderstand the figures in the charts. What they mean is that, for instance, for each 100 units sold of Apocalypto BD, there were 98.55 units of POTC DMC BD sold, and 82.27 units of Planet Earth HD DVD.

That is to say, in units sold, sales of POTC DMC were 98.55% of Apocalypto BD, and sales of Planet Earth HD DVD were 82.27% of Planet Earth HD DVD.

So which list is in error, the overall Top 10 hi-def discs, or the Top 5 BD discs? One of them must be in error though. My suspicion is that it is the overall Top 10 list.

Grubert, since you have contacts with HMM, could you please determine which list (Top 5 BD or Top 10 Hi-def) is in error?

Both lists are correct. No need to contact HMM.

HMM lists the Top 10 hi-def discs (both formats combined) as:

1. Apocalypto BD 100
2. POTC: DMC BD 98.55
3. POTC: CBP BD 84.33
4. Planet Earth HD DVD 82.27
5. Norbit BD 77.78
6. Blood Diamond BD 74.95
7. Planet Earth BD 62.17
8. The Messengers BD 51.05
9. Casino Royale BD 44.44
10. Letters from Iwo Jima BD 38.65

Then they list the Top 5 Blu-ray only discs for the same period as:

1. Apocalypto BD 100
2. POTC: DMC BD 98.55
3. POTC: CBP BD 84.33
4. Norbit BD 77.78
5. Blood Diamond BD 74.95

wnorris,

The first list is high-def disc (both formats combined), while the second list is the Top 5 Blu-ray only discs.

For both lists Apocalpyto (Blu-ray) is the reference title for sales. Thus, the Blu-ray discs ratios will not vary on the list. The only difference is that Planet Earth, this largest selling HD DVD title, actually sneaks into the combined format list. That is why Norbit (Blu-ray) & Blood Diamond (Blu-ray) drop a slot, while not changing their ratio.

For every Apocalypto sold (100), 82.27 Planet Earth (HD DVD) were sold, 77.78 Norbit (Blu-ray) were sold, etc.

If an HD DVD title was number 1 on the combined list, the Blu-ray discs sales ratios would changed on the combined list.

fitprod

(EDIT - DOH! Sorry Grubert... I was writing this out while you posted...)

Yes, if the top-selling BD title is also the top-selling aggregate HD title and is an exclusive BD title.



You misunderstand the figures in the charts. What they mean is that, for instance, for each 100 units sold of Apocalypto BD, there were 98.55 units of POTC DMC BD sold, and 82.27 units of Planet Earth HD DVD.

That is to say, in units sold, sales of POTC DMC were 98.55% of Apocalypto BD, and sales of Planet Earth HD DVD were 82.27% of Planet Earth HD DVD.



Both lists are correct. No need to contact HMM.

Never mind. I had a brain fart. I was working with a relative ranking indexed list similar to this, but indexed based on ratio to overall sales.

I forgot that HMM choose to base everything in relation to the top selling disc.

Grubert, those are important but I would also think title format is as important

1. Casino Royale 83,600
2. The Departed 62,700
3. The Departed 37,800
4. The Prestige 34,700
5. Night at the Museum 28,100
6. Batman Begins 25,900
7. Happy Feet 25,500
8. Planet Earth 25,400
9. Crank 24,800
10. PotC: Dead Man's Chest 23,700
11. Déjà Vu 22,700
12. Superman Returns 22,600
13. Black Hawk Down 21,600
14. PotC: Curse Black Pearl 21,100
15. The Fifth Element 20,900
16. Saw III 20,400
17. Planet Earth 19,300
18. Underworld: Evolution 19,100
19. Rocky Balboa 18,600

Grubert, those are important but I would also think title format is as important

Is it possible to use a different blue color for Blu-ray? It is almost impossible to read with AVS White.

I just used the same colour as Grubert. truth is I just cut , rearranged and pasted from his (which is why I also did not bother to go back to HMM to find out #20, in case anyone is wondering)

I am not sure what posting during office hours has to do with anything. I post during office hours, do NOT get compensated for my participation in this or any forum, my company has nothing to gain from this format war and yes, I make a decent 6 figure annual income andhave been making a 6 figure + income for the past 10 years.....so I am not going to suffer if one format or the other wins. But personally, there are way too many BDA posters who refuse to disclose who they work for and what their agenda is and yet we are suposed to believe their info! Give me a break. Credibility or lack of credibility does not live on one side alone, if anything the BDA is engaging in a malicious misinformation campaign using thier own employees as forum posters, while MFST employees have the decency to at least disclose their affiliation - and by and large are civilized and logical in their postings. Whether you agree with them or not.

IMHO, MSFT has made a positive contribution to the format wars in pushing better quality products, faster and cheaper....what has Sony done other than trying to carve out a cartel and discouraging and mocking competition. I guess we have a lot of folks here in love with OPEC and want to see that model replicated in home video as well....

Hopefully the rest of the folks will see through this agenda.
D'ACCORD

I just used the same colour as Grubert. truth is I just cut , rearranged and pasted from his (which is why I also did not bother to go back to HMM to find out #20, in case anyone is wondering)

The same things happens on the release calendar. If I use Blue then the people with the default skin can't read it, and if I use Cyan, those who use AVS white can't see a thing.

Some tidbits from HMM Article (http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10784)

According to Digital Entertainment Group research, there are currently about 300,000 HD DVD players in the U.S. market, split in half between set-top boxes and Xbox 360s. There are 1.5 million Blu-ray players, with only 100,000 set-top boxes being counted among those. The rest are PlayStation 3s.

Also, according to DEG research, consumers have spent $35 million on Blu-ray software thus far in 2007, as opposed to $19 million on HD DVD product.

“No high-def format can recreate the DVD boon,” Jayalath said, adding that in the upcoming years DVD will still have relevance among the high-def selections. “This is not another revolution,” Jayalath said. “It is an evolution ... It won’t happen overnight. “Many consumers who opt for Blu-ray will get a PS3,” Jayalath added. “Plus we think the HD DVD product will continue to have a price advantage.” She also said more companies will adopt a “format agnostic” stance as the high-def format battle rages on, and the price for software will plummet too.

Worldwide, the global entertainment and packaged media industry was a $1.4 trillion business in 2006, according to research from PricewaterhouseCoopers, LLP. That’s expected to grow to $2 trillion in 2011, with both China and India accounting for much of the growth.

Titles released on June 12:

Blu-ray
Blood and Chocolate
Cruel Intentions
Daddy's Little Girls
Ghost Rider Extended Cut
Music and Lyrics
Primeval
Seven Years in Tibet
World's Most Beautiful Places

HD DVD
Black Christmas (2006)
Born on the 4th of July
Breach
Bruce Almighty
Daylight
Harsh Times
Liar Liar
Monty Python's Meaning of Life
Music and Lyrics
Sneakers
World's Most Beautiful Places

Titles released on June 19:

Blu-ray
Blood and Chocolate
Cruel Intentions
Daddy's Little Girls
Ghost Rider Extended Cut
Music and Lyrics
Primeval
Seven Years in Tibet
World's Most Beautiful Places

HD DVD
Black Christmas (2006)
Born on the 4th of July
Breach
Bruce Almighty
Daylight
Harsh Times
Liar Liar
Monty Python's Meaning of Life
Music and Lyrics
Sneakers
World's Most Beautiful Places

The 12th?

I think the only movie released on either format today is Bridge to Terabithia on Blu-ray.

According to Engadget anyway http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/06/18/hd-dvd-and-blu-ray-releases-on-june-19th-2007/

The 12th?


Yes, the 12! (Last week's Tuesday). Those are the titles that may be new entries in upcoming Rentrak or Nielsen charts.

Sorry about the error.

If so, I'm not surprised since that is essentially my buying habit ~ 95% or so of my BDs were new releases.

Exactly. I've only doubled dipped from DVD on what the consensus of reviews and first hand accounts from opinions I generally trust. BD had had and looks to continue with a significant edge in this aspect, as well, for at least the intermediate future.

Whatever the reason, the Ultimate Collection has consistently outsold the Complete Trilogy.

I've pretty much decided on the Complete collection since I already have the Ultimate DVD set and the ultimate HDDVD set doesn't offer anything I don't already have wrt extras (Animatrix, and other assorted extras in SD) and I absolutely detest flippers. I'm just waiting to see if/when there might be a deal on an A2 that includes the Complete set free. ;)

The same things happens on the release calendar. If I use Blue then the people with the default skin can't read it, and if I use Cyan, those who use AVS white can't see a thing.

I know, I actually tried the different blues (after his post), but leaving it as is was easier, works with the default (that I use) and left you as a convenient escape goat :)

I guess the list means it is time for the guesses?

70:30 BD

top 3
Ghost Rider Extended Cut
Blood and Chocolate
Monty Python's Meaning of Life

(I think the first is a given, the truth is no idea for the rest)

68 BD:32 HD, im giving hd-dvd the benefit of the doudbt it wont be worse :)

65:35 Blu-ray

I suck at guessing the top 5 so I'll abstain this time.

BD 67:33 HDDVD
1) Ghost Rider BD
2) Apocalypto BD
3) Pirates DMC BD
4) Pirates CBP BD
5) Planet Earth HDDVD

71:29 Blu-Ray

Well, next week's sales figures that we find out on 6/29 got a lot more interesting (good thing too - with little released, it looked like it was going to be a boring one). We'll get to see if the Blockbuster announcement had any affect on HD-DVD sales or not. This is a bone of contention in a bunch of other threads. Though I'd suspect that if there was indeed any effect, it would be more on the hardware side than on the software side, at least immediately.

Meantime, back to this week's #s, I'll guess 68/32 with
1) Ghost Rider BD
2) Apocalypto BD
3) Planet Earth HD

63:37 for last week.

Last week included a huge spike for hd-dvd because of the amazon 40% off sale. Blu-ray's 3 for 2 sale was already ended, with buyers slowing purchases after the sale.

"Ghost Rider" was the No. 1 Blu-ray Disc seller, while "Planet Earth" continued its long reign as the top HD DVD seller. "Ghost Rider" is only available on Blu-ray, while "Planet Earth" is out on both next-generation formats.

http://www.reuters.com/article/filmNews/idUSN2031089620070621

Top HD DVD Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/17/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
4 THE ULTIMATE MATRIX COLLECTION (WB, $119.99)
5 THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN (UNI, $29.98)
6 FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS (PAR, $39.99)
7 RIO BRAVO (WB, $28.99)
8 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
9 BRUCE ALMIGHTY (UNI, $29.98)
10 THE FRIGHTENERS: DIRECTOR'S CUT (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-ray Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/17/2007


RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (BV, $34.99)
3 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (BV, $34.99)
4 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
5 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
6 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
7 APOCALYPTO (BV, $34.99)
8 PRIMEVAL (BV, $34.99)
9 HELLBOY (SONY, $28.95)
10 BLACK HAWK DOWN (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

64:36 Blu-Ray

"Ghost Rider" was the No. 1 Blu-ray Disc seller, while "Planet Earth" continued its long reign as the top HD DVD seller. "Ghost Rider" is only available on Blu-ray, while "Planet Earth" is out on both next-generation formats.

http://www.reuters.com/article/filmNews/idUSN2031089620070621

what is the #1 HD DVD title, Breach or PE?

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)

or

"Planet Earth" continued its long reign as the top HD DVD seller.

Rentrak polls less retailers, so the more accurate answer will be PE (as we will see tomorrow when Nielson numbers come out.

FWIW, it could be Breach, PE on HD DVD is now #10 on Amazon (down from #4 last week at the same time).

This is related to the bogus numbers wnorris was trying to float earlier in the thread.

http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2007/06/21/hd_dvd_shrugs_off_blockbuster_move/1


This was an attempt at playing down the fact that the PlayStation 3 is primarily not a Blu-ray player. To further press this point home though, he highlighted the fact that if you include the PS3 sales in Sony’s Blu-ray sales figures, Blu-ray customers are only buying an average of one Blu-ray title per player, while HD DVD owners are buying around four titles per player.


Straight from Ken Graffeo. Are you still sure it is 4 times the attach rate of dedicated Blu-ray players?

Top HD DVD Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/17/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
2 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
3 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
4 THE ULTIMATE MATRIX COLLECTION (WB, $119.99)
5 THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN (UNI, $29.98)
6 FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS (PAR, $39.99)
7 RIO BRAVO (WB, $28.99)
8 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
9 BRUCE ALMIGHTY (UNI, $29.98)
10 THE FRIGHTENERS: DIRECTOR'S CUT (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-ray Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/17/2007


RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (BV, $34.99)
3 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (BV, $34.99)
4 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
5 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
6 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
7 APOCALYPTO (BV, $34.99)
8 PRIMEVAL (BV, $34.99)
9 HELLBOY (SONY, $28.95)
10 BLACK HAWK DOWN (SONY, $28.95)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Batman Begins continues its ownage despite being 8 months old... the new HD DVD owners from the $100 rebate realized that the 5 free movie deal is going to take some time, since Batman Begins has great reviews for PQ, AQ, and the movie itself its not surprising that it is near the top again.

1. The new people in the format war probably bought it
2. The new dual format owners who also picked up a HD DVD player during the $100 rebate probably bought it because they know how "neutral*" Warner Bros. is

Batman Begins continues its ownage despite being 8 months old.

I can't wait for its eventual release on Blu-ray. It is going to be a chart-topper for sure.