63:37 for last week.

Last week included a huge spike for hd-dvd because of the amazon 40% off sale. Blu-ray's 3 for 2 sale was already ended, with buyers slowing purchases after the sale.

Blu-Ray also had a 40% off sale on Amazon during the same time frame the advertisement page on Amazon had both formats listed and there was an article on highdefdigest (http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Amazon/High-Def_Retailing/Amazon_Drops_Prices_on_Select_Blu-ray,_HD_DVD_Discs_to_42_Percent_Off_List/695) about both formats on sale at Amazon, however Blu-Ray had many more movies to choose from.

57:43 Bd

Batman Begins continues its ownage despite being 8 months old... the new HD DVD owners from the $100 rebate realized that the 5 free movie deal is going to take some time, since Batman Begins has great reviews for PQ, AQ, and the movie itself its not surprising that it is near the top again.Could be, but it will be nice to see the percentage for it tomorrow (hopefully) instead of just the ranking.

I think that last week was a week the Planet Earth was selling especially well on HD DVD on Amazon, so I expect it to still be up there and in relative terms might have improved its position. It looks like it has been dropping in the rankings on Amazon since Monday and is now down to #12. That should be reflected in next weeks numbers. I do wonder how many returns Amazon will get given that the current warning I see on their page for it is:
Region 2 encoding (This DVD will not play on most DVD players sold in the US or Canada [Region 1]. This item requires a region specific or multi-region DVD player and compatible TV. More about DVD formats.)I don't see the warning about only playing in HD DVD players anymore at this page:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B000MRAAJW/hd08-20

--Darin

Could be, but it will be nice to see the percentage for it tomorrow (hopefully) instead of just the ranking.

I think that last week was a week the Planet Earth was selling especially well on HD DVD on Amazon, so I expect it to still be up there and in relative terms might have improved its position. It looks like it has been dropping in the rankings on Amazon since Monday and is now down to #12. That should be reflected in next weeks numbers. I do wonder how many returns Amazon will get given that the current warning I see on their page for it is:
I don't see the warning about only playing in HD DVD players anymore at this page:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B000MRAAJW/hd08-20

--Darin

Sales of Planet Earth HD DVD on Amazon came to what appears to be a standstill following the Blockbuster announcement and resulting media fallout. I have a feeling it is just temporary though, and in a week they'll probably pick up again.

Blu-Ray also had a 40% off sale on Amazon during the same time frame the advertisement page on Amazon had both formats listed and there was an article on highdefdigest (http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Amazon/High-Def_Retailing/Amazon_Drops_Prices_on_Select_Blu-ray,_HD_DVD_Discs_to_42_Percent_Off_List/695) about both formats on sale at Amazon, however Blu-Ray had many more movies to choose from.


True, but if you were watching amazon's #s, blu-ray sales were weakening at the same time hd-dvd #s picked up. Blu-ray was coming off the back of a 3 for 2 sale, and people had just finished placing their orders in for that sale.

It's kinda similar to what happened to the sales # after the 50% off sale and after the "buy days". After one of these events, or as the event progresses, sales spike, then drops off.

Also note that last week marked the end of the hd-dvd $100 rebate, which a lot of people did take advantage of. I dont doubt that people purchased at least one movie to go with their new players.

Of course, this is just my opinion. :D

Sales of Planet Earth HD DVD on Amazon came to what appears to be a standstill following the Blockbuster announcement and resulting media fallout. I have a feeling it is just temporary though, and in a week they'll probably pick up again.I thought about mentioning that, but it also seems to have coincided with the end of the sale on Toshiba players and maybe there is something with the PE show on the Discovery Channel. Hard to say what exactly caused it (or if it is multiple factors).

Maybe the sales drop has something to do with the warning that says it is Region 2 encoding.

--Darin

I thought about mentioning that, but it also seems to have coincided with the end of the sale on Toshiba players and maybe there is something with the PE show on the Discovery Channel. Hard to say what exactly caused it (or if it is multiple factors).

Maybe the sales drop has something to do with the warning that says it is Region 2 encoding.

--Darin

I agree it could just be a coincidence.

What was Discovery Channel's showtime scheduling of PE, does anyone know? From current schedule on their site it's clear that they show PE every Sunday, and I know that's what they did when it originally aired. Was there then a break for a few weeks before they started re-airing it, or have they shown it straight through every Sunday since inception?

True, but if you were watching amazon's #s, blu-ray sales were weakening at the same time hd-dvd #s picked up. Blu-ray was coming off the back of a 3 for 2 sale, and people had just finished placing their orders in for that sale.

It's kinda similar to what happened to the sales # after the 50% off sale and after the "buy days". After one of these events, or as the event progresses, sales spike, then drops off.

Also note that last week marked the end of the hd-dvd $100 rebate, which a lot of people did take advantage of. I dont doubt that people purchased at least one movie to go with their new players.

Of course, this is just my opinion. :D


And yet Blu-Ray also had a 40% off sale with more title choices.

What was Discovery Channel's showtime scheduling of PE, does anyone know? From current schedule on their site it's clear that they show PE every Sunday, and I know that's what they did when it originally aired. Was there then a break for a few weeks before they started re-airing it, or have they shown it straight through every Sunday since inception?

I am pretty sure there was a break. My tivo just picked up an earlier one last week and that is the first time it did that since the original Discovery HD broadcast.

Seems like having it on Discovery HD would help keep interest up. That doesn't seem to be the case.

Let the DDOS page refreshing begin.

Someone said that Planet Earth sales ranking has fallen in Amazon since the BB announcement. Some are inferring they are related. OK. How does that correlate with the ranking of PoTC? Have those fallen by more or less than PE? So, should we be discussing how the falling rankings of PoTC is related to the BB announcement?

It's amazing the type of FUD that so called 'objective' BD supporters are throwing around. How many weeks was Casino Royale as highly ranked or the #1 title on Amazon? Longer or shorter than PE HD DVD? Don't all products fall in ranking? isn't that just normal behavior?

Someone said that Planet Earth sales ranking has fallen in Amazon since the BB announcement. Some are inferring they are related. OK. How does that correlate with the ranking of PoTC? Have those fallen by more or less than PE? So, should we be discussing how the falling rankings of PoTC is related to the BB announcement?

It's amazing the type of FUD that so called 'objective' BD supporters are throwing around. How many weeks was Casino Royale as highly ranked or the #1 title on Amazon? Longer or shorter than PE HD DVD? Don't all products fall in ranking? isn't that just normal behavior?

Hasn't PE up until some unknown event early this week been defying that behavior? Especially on HD DVD?

edit: anecdotal info - HD DVD version was #4 until June 19th at 1:20pm and had been for sometime. It is now #13 just 3 days later.

Someone said that Planet Earth sales ranking has fallen in Amazon since the BB announcement. Some are inferring they are related. OK. How does that correlate with the ranking of PoTC? Have those fallen by more or less than PE? So, should we be discussing how the falling rankings of PoTC is related to the BB announcement?

It's amazing the type of FUD that so called 'objective' BD supporters are throwing around. How many weeks was Casino Royale as highly ranked or the #1 title on Amazon? Longer or shorter than PE HD DVD? Don't all products fall in ranking? isn't that just normal behavior?

Go here:

http://www.eproductwars.com/products/Planet-Earth-The-Complete-BBC-Series-HD-DVD-794051293923.cfm

Click on "View more sales rank and quantity history"

Look at the rates of sales before and after the Blockbuster announcement.

Now I'm not saying that it is only the Blockbuster announcement. I think the $100 player rebate ending factors in as well. I also think that no releases this week for HD DVD could cause some people to hold off and group their orders.

However, you can't honestly tell me that going from steady sales to near flat sales instantly is just a natural occurrence.

last minute prediction

61:39

BD of course

wild guessing here:

PotC2
PotC1
Apoc
PE- HD DVD
Terabithia

Someone said that Planet Earth sales ranking has fallen in Amazon since the BB announcement. Some are inferring they are related. OK. How does that correlate with the ranking of PoTC? Have those fallen by more or less than PE?Less on a percentage basis, which is most relevant. Or would you try to make people think that a drop from #4 to #12 is less indicative of fast dropping sales than a drop from #119 to #145?
So, should we be discussing how the falling rankings of PoTC is related to the BB announcement?Not unless you somehow think that it is the absolute drop that matters, in which case we could discuss ridiculous things like a title at around #5000 dropping by 50 spots.
It's amazing the type of FUD that so called 'objective' BD supporters are throwing around.And I find it somewhat amazing that you would seem to think 'objective' thought would see a more unusual drop in PoTC than PE.
How many weeks was Casino Royale as highly ranked or the #1 title on Amazon? Longer or shorter than PE HD DVD? Don't all products fall in ranking? isn't that just normal behavior?Dropping is normal. The chart for PE on HD DVD is not normal. Not being as high as it was over a month and a half after release compared to where it was the day it was released. Or dropping so quickly in the past few days on a percentage basis and the sales rate that the stock number chart seems to indicate, almost 2 months after release.

As I said, I don't know what caused it. But if you are going to claim you are fighting FUD, please do it with something better than trying to make people think that the drop for PE wasn't more suspect than the drops for PotC this week because it is so high that the absolute fall in ranking isn't real big.

EDIT: Obviously a drop from #1 to #2 would be a big percentage, but not indicative of anything unusual on its own for rounding reasons and the like. Also, we are looking at stock numbers in this case.

--Darin

Let the DDOS page refreshing begin.

Heh, I can see their server admin's putting a block on referrals. :D

Heh, I can see their server admin's putting a block on referrals. :D

link?

I don't think the numbers are up so one last guess at 70:30.

The URL is active.

But really slow! Hope for some content soon :)

Ill guess 68/32 in favor of BR

HD DVD got 36% this week.

64/36 in favor of Blu-ray

Weekly: 64/36
YTD: 67/33
SI: 59/41

1. Ghost Rider (100)
2. Planet Earth HD (26.72)
3. Breach (21.19)
4. Apocolypto (13.69)
5. POTC: DMC (13.60)
6. Planet Earth BD (13.12)
7. POTC: CBP (11.34)
8. Casino Royale (10.05)
9. Blood Diamond (6.71)
10. Primeval (6.69)

That looks like a pretty good showing by Ghostrider. At least 15.000 maybe over 20.000 copies based on PE.

PE could possibly have had an slightly better than lately week based on the Amazon ranks for the period. It's way ahead not only Pirates and Apocalypto but also if I remember correctly futher ahead of Casino Royale than last weeks.

Contenders for that week:

Blu-ray
* Blood & Chocolate (Sony)
* Cruel Intentions (Sony)
* Daddy's Little Girls (Lionsgate)
* Ghost Rider (Sony)
* Music and Lyrics (Warner)
* Primeval (Buena Vista)
* Seven Years in Tibet (Sony)

HD DVD
* Black Christmas (2006) (Weinstein)
* Born on the Fourth of July (Universal)
* Breach (Universal)
* Bruce Almighty (Universal)
* Daylight (Universal)
* Harsh Times (Weinstein)
* Liar Liar (Universal)
* Living Landscapes: The World's Most Beautiful Places (HD Environments)
* Monty Python's The Meaning of Life (Universal)
* Music and Lyrics (Warner)
* Sneakers (Universal)

That looks like a pretty good showing by Ghostrider. At least 15.000 maybe over 20.000 copies based on PE.

PE could possibly have had an slightly better than lately week based on the Amazon ranks for the period. It's way ahead not only Pirates and Apocalypto but also if I remember correctly futher ahead of Casino Royale than last weeks.

PE is making a big comeback on DVD as well. It was ranked 5th ... highest, since its release, IIRC.

The sales ranking of PE on HD DVD are tied not just to BD titles but SD DVDs as well. So, the ranking depends on what happens on the DVD side as well.

Darin I'm glad you put that edit, since the percentage drop in rankings makes no sense at all! That is a bogus metric. Also, Neilson shows that the % drop in PoTC unit sales has been much steeper....anyway, I'll be curious to see what next weeks shows.

Wow BD still dominates the weekly top 10 charts with 8 of 10 titles.

Wow BD still dominates the weekly top 10 charts with 8 of 10 titles.

Next week could be worse with no new HD DVD releases.

edit: or better considering on your position

Extended list

1. Ghost Rider (100)
2. Planet Earth HD (26.72)
3. Breach (21.19)
4. Apocolypto (13.69)
5. POTC: DMC (13.60)
6. Planet Earth BD (13.12)
7. POTC: CBP (11.34)
8. Casino Royale (10.05)
9. Blood Diamond (6.71)
10. Primeval (6.69)
xx. Letters from Iwo Jima BD (6.49)
xx. Batman Begins (6.33)
xx. Flags of our Fathers HD (5.88)
xx. Letters from Iwo Jima HD (5.77)
xx. Flags of our Fathers BD (4.92)

yy. Departed combined (8.52)

Next week could be worse with no new HD DVD releases.

edit: or better considering on your position

Not likely in this regard. Pe won't be out of the top 10. I'll bet you a billion on that. Even with the regular drop to 50% of first week Breach should stay in top 10 as well.

Not likely in this regard. Pe won't be out of the top 10. I'll bet you a billion on that. Even with the regular drop to 50% of first week Breach should stay in top 10 as well.

PE will still be in the top 10, but I bet Breach will drop out of the top 10*










*this bet has no cash value ;)

The sales ranking of PE on HD DVD are tied not just to BD titles but SD DVDs as well. So, the ranking depends on what happens on the DVD side as well.Yep. And we looked at the graphs of stock numbers. That has been explained to you more than once.
Darin I'm glad you put that edit, since the percentage drop in rankings makes no sense at all! That is a bogus metric.Yes, it does. Why don't you answer my question then:
Or would you try to make people think that a drop from #4 to #12 is less indicative of fast dropping sales than a drop from #119 to #145?Is it because people would see that you have to go to illogical places to claim that PE didn't have a more unusual drop than PotC?
Also, Neilson shows that the % drop in PoTC unit sales has been much steeper....anyway, I'll be curious to see what next weeks shows.Nielsen numbers were for the time before what we are talking about for the drop, so no it doesn't how than PotC has been much steeper than the PE we are talking about on Amazon. The week Nielsen shows is the one where PE on HD DVD was strong on Amazon, not the week of the drop. And Nielsen gets much more of the market than Amazon so even if the drop isn't shown there it doesn't mean it didn't happen on Amazon.

It seems so simple to me for you to see that your accusation was ridiculous that I can't believe you are still holding onto it. It isn't that complicated and I wonder why you reach like this so you can claim you are fighting FUD. If you want to disagree with me, please answer the point about whether the size of drops on Amazon should be based on absolute change (so 5000 to 5050 would be considered a bigger drop than 100 to 140).

--Darin

HD DVD got 36% this week.

64/36 in favor of Blu-ray

These (week ending 6/17/07) will be the benchmark figures with which to compare the figures from next week which will be the first figures following the 6/18/07 Blockbuster announcement. Should be interesting.

Next week could be worse with no new HD DVD releases.


Well, Blu-ray will win for sure next week, but the week after should be HD DVD's no question. If HD DVD can't win that week, stick a fork in it. It's done.

Again, I can't believe how popular Planet Earth is.

Well, Blu-ray will win for sure next week, but the week after should be HD DVD's no question. If HD DVD can't win that week, stick a fork in it. It's done.

Again, I can't believe how popular Planet Earth is.

I love the PE series (didn't purchase, only viewed off of DHD) I think it is the most amazing documentary I have ever seen, and I totally agree with you, the continued sales are amazing.

Well, back to the wait and see.

HD DVD got 36% this week.

64/36 in favor of Blu-ray


63:37 for last week.

Last week included a huge spike for hd-dvd because of the amazon 40% off sale. Blu-ray's 3 for 2 sale was already ended, with buyers slowing purchases after the sale.

BOOOOO I was awfully close.

This week will swing in BD's favor due to the BBI effect & expiring $100 rebates.

My prediction for next week: 69:31

for the week that includes 6/26 sales I say: 60:40

I am no good at guessing top 5 or anything like that, so I shall refrain.

Again, I can't believe how popular Planet Earth is.

This week, it's 8th, could possibly have been Planet Earths best yet in actual numbers. That's including the first week which I think we can say pretty much for certain is unparalleled.

Edit: that would be for HD DVD. It's doing very well on Blu Ray as well but not beating it's first week and actually dropping a bit from the last couple of weeks.

i still cant believe hd-dvd cant recover more. it had a 100 usa dollar player price drop! pretty good marketing and still bluray rules the software sales.

the week of june 26th. hd-dvd should rule that week. maybe we see some good announcements as well from hd-dvd. if not, then i see the future pretty bleak until fourth quarter.

I guessed 64:36 for this week's numbers so I guess I get a cookie :)

I think Universal has got to be feeling the pressure. They threw a ton of good catalog titles (although the PQ on many of these prevented me from buying them) at Blu-Ray and not one title showed up in the Top10... They have to be frustrated..

ack_bk

I think Universal has got to be feeling the pressure. They threw a ton of good catalog titles (although the PQ on many of these prevented me from buying them) at Blu-Ray and not one title showed up in the Top10... They have to be frustrated..

I just dont understand the logic of this. The numbers are so miniscule, the difference in absolute disc sales between number 1 and number 10 probably amounts to 6-8K discs.

JPB estimates between 15 and 20K discs for the number 1 seller.

Wow, I can see it now - Universal stock holders demanding that the entire board of directors be fired, and keel hauled because they are missing selling 20 or 30K discs a month.

All this jabber can be fun I guess, but really it is no more than a tempest in a tea pot.

Darin,

Percentage changes in rankings do not make sense. Rankings are ordinal and not interval data - one has no idea what the difference between each individual rank is, and hence percentage changes are not meaningful.

Actually, trying to interpret changes in rankings is largely meaningless - the numbers are low, and a large swing in rankings can be the result of relatively small shifts in purchases.

I am expecting that the June26th onslaught is the red format's last chance to prove that it can hold its own. After the HD-A2s went on sale for those prices, with the $100 rebate, one would expect that new and existing owners would now be able to pick from a sudden wave of ok catalogs, while the blue format exclusives sits out that week.

With such lopsided advantage, if the wk after next did not go the red format's way, it would be a tough one to understand.

I think Universal has got to be feeling the pressure. They threw a ton of good catalog titles (although the PQ on many of these prevented me from buying them) at Blu-Ray and not one title showed up in the Top10... They have to be frustrated..

True about Universal. But how do you think Lionsgate ("Daddy's Little Girls"), Warner ("Music and Lyrics") and even Sony ("Blood & Chocolate," "Cruel Intentions" and "Seven Years in Tibet") feel about how poorly their just-released catalogue and new releases performed? Except for Disney's "Primeval" no new BD title cracked the Top 15. Looks like the dreaded PS3 demographic that prefers flashy stuff like "Ghost Rider" wins a big one at the expense of the girlie-oriented flicks and other miscellanous stuff. Between these BD titles and Universal's slew of releases (other than "Breach") it was a bad week for just-released catalogue titles all-around. :(

I guessed 64:36 for this week's numbers so I guess I get a cookie :)

I think Universal has got to be feeling the pressure. They threw a ton of good catalog titles (although the PQ on many of these prevented me from buying them) at Blu-Ray and not one title showed up in the Top10... They have to be frustrated..
Breach was universal's only recent success. That's a day date release too.

True about Universal. But how do you think Lionsgate ("Daddy's Little Girls"), Warner ("Music and Lyrics") and even Sony ("Blood & Chocolate," "Cruel Intentions" and "Seven Years in Tibet") feel about how poorly their catalogue and new releases performed? Except for Disney's "Primeval" no new BD title cracked the Top 15. Looks like the dreaded PS3 demographic that prefers flashy stuff like "Ghost Rider" wins a big one at the expense of the girlie-oriented other stuff. Between these BD titles and Universal's slew of releases (other than "Breach") it was a bad week for catalogue titles all-around. :(

If Warner wanted better numbers on Music and Lyrics they should have done day and date.

No coment on the rest as I didn't rent or purchase any of them (possible anecdotal evidence of the reason the sales were so low) ;)

FWIW I didn't rent or purchase Ghost Rider either, and we watched Dirty Dancing last night.

ack_bk



I just dont understand the logic of this. The numbers are so miniscule, the difference in absolute disc sales between number 1 and number 10 probably amounts to 6-8K discs.

JPB estimates between 15 and 20K discs for the number 1 seller.

Wow, I can see it now - Universal stock holders demanding that the entire board of directors be fired, and keel hauled because they are missing selling 20 or 30K discs a month.

All this jabber can be fun I guess, but really it is no more than a tempest in a tea pot.

Come on. The studios know that the next logical step for selling their products and generating revenue is HD media (whether it be purchased, rented, downloaded, or watched on PPV). Do you think that Universal is cranking out major catalog releases left and right just so they can be the slowest horse in an already slow race? I don't.

After Warner and Paramont shocked everybody and announced their neutrality before the format war kicked off, I believe that Universal put the screws to Toshiba and was offered some lucrative incentives to stay exclusive. I also beleive that Universal got greedy and thought that they would be in the drivers seat with HD DVD owners since they would be the only exclusive studio and would be putting out more titles than the other neutral studios combined.

It is pretty obvious that Warner is by far the best studio releasing on HD DVD. Universal is not even in the drivers seat with the format that they are exclusively supporting. If I sat on the Universal board of directors, I would be frustrated when I look at how my studio stacks up compared to the other studios with regards to HD media. Have you seen the Top 20 sellers list (year to date)? Look where Universal ranks across the board compared to the other studios.

I am expecting that the June26th onslaught is the red format's last chance to prove that it can hold its own. After the HD-A2s went on sale for those prices, with the $100 rebate, one would expect that new and existing owners would now be able to pick from a sudden wave of ok catalogs, while the blue format exclusives sits out that week.

With such lopsided advantage, if the wk after next did not go the red format's way, it would be a tough one to understand.

With this release schedule, HD had better OWN that week.

American Me
Being John Malkovich
The Big Lebrownski
Bulletproof
Dead Silence
Freedom Vol. 1
Mallrats
Meet Joe Black
Mystery Men
The Watcher

Hd-dvd exclusive titles from Grupert's list

So Darin, let me get this straight. You are saying the the drop in ranking from 4 to 12, is the most dramatic drop in sales ranking you can think of and in your opinion it shows the deep impact that the BB announcement is having on sales?

Again, like I said. Drop in rankings is normal and all titlea drop in rankings. Including PoTC and Apocalypto and Casine Royale.....the list goes not. You cannot use correlation to show causation. The last I looked PE HD DVD was still the best selling HD title on Amazon or close to the best....a dramatic fall would be IF it went from 4 to 100 IMHO. 4 to 12 seems to be an insignificant change and seems totally normal. Even unit sales should slip....I used PoTC again, as an illustration to show that sales drop week upon week as a normal behavior...

Are you even trying to understand the point or just trying to be obstinate?

With this release schedule, HD had better OWN that week.

American Me
Being John Malkovich
The Big Lebrownski
Bulletproof
Dead Silence
Freedom Vol. 1
Mallrats
Meet Joe Black
Mystery Men
The Watcher

Hd-dvd exclusive titles from Grupert's list

all catalog, i would be shocked if any of them made into top 10.

Percentage changes in rankings do not make sense. Rankings are ordinal and not interval data - one has no idea what the difference between each individual rank is, and hence percentage changes are not meaningful.

Actually, trying to interpret changes in rankings is largely meaningless - the numbers are low, and a large swing in rankings can be the result of relatively small shifts in purchases.If you want to argue that interpreting the rankings is largely meaningless, then I can understand that, but if you want to apply any meaning to them at all, then how about giving a straight answer to my questions:
Or would you try to make people think that a drop from #4 to #12 is less indicative of fast dropping sales than a drop from #119 to #145?
...
Should the size of drops on Amazon be based on absolute change (so 5000 to 5050 would be considered a bigger drop than 100 to 140)?The percentage difference is definitely relevant (unless you want to argue that nothing is relevant) and I can't believe both of you guys are arguing otherwise. I already mentioned that we looked at the stock graphs to check things.

As far as:... the numbers are low, and a large swing in rankings can be the result of relatively small shifts in purchasesespecially down at higher numbers in the rankings (like at #5000). Which is why a larger absolute change when something is down there is not an indication of more change in sales. Do you consider dropping 8 spots to be more indicative of a drop in sales for something starting at rank #4, or rank #100? I hope I don't have defend what "more indicative" means.

--Darin

I think this graph speaks for itself, it is the Amazon Sales rank of PE on HD DVD for the past 45 days (that was the longest period they had).

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/graph.aspx?ASIN=B000MRAAJW&SPAN=45&TYPE=0

(sorry for not inserting a pic, I can't seem to sign into flickr today).

Important to note that the press release from Blockbuster was dated 6/18.

BD version, which has been consistently ranked lower for trend comparison.

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/graph.aspx?ASIN=B000MRAAJM&SPAN=45&TYPE=0

Looks like the dreaded PS3 demographic that prefers flashy stuff like "Ghost Rider" wins a big one at the expense of the girlie-oriented flicks and other miscellanous stuff. :(

That's because women don't belong near cutting edge Electronics, with very few exceptions. :eek:

That's because women don't belong near cutting edge Electronics, with very few exceptions.
Oh no he di'int!!!

Oh no he di'int!!!

Damn right I did!

"Honey, how do I turn on your speakers? The View is on"

"Put down the Harmony 880 and make me a sandwich, woman!"

Darin,

My point is that the absolute difference between the individual rankings varies and the number of units between the ranks probably varies. As such, it doesnt make much sense to look at percentages in terms of assessing "significance". Here is an example

Rank Volume

1 1000
2 900
3 890
4 500

versus

1 1000
2 300
3 100
4 5


In both cases, the percentage drop in ranks going from 1 to 4 would be the same, but their meanings would be very different.

all catalog, i would be shocked if any of them made into top 10.


Correct, though together they won't sell 10.000 copies based on previous catalogue releases. Will that have an impact on the percentages? Of course. Will it be enough to win the week. Possibly since Pirates and Apocalypto seems to fall pretty fast. Unless Ghost Rider shows an uncommon staying power it will likely be enough. It's still ridicolous low numbers though.

Would it matter. Not really apart from whatever press the result gathers.

Should we expect Blu Ray supporters posting for the next two weeks about how unless HD DVD wins it's all over (again). Very likely.

So Darin, let me get this straight. You are saying the the drop in ranking from 4 to 12, is the most dramatic drop in sales ranking you can think of and in your opinion it shows the deep impact that the BB announcement is having on sales?Are you even serious. Why do you make stuff like this up. Can't we be adults? I already posted this:I thought about mentioning that, but it also seems to have coincided with the end of the sale on Toshiba players and maybe there is something with the PE show on the Discovery Channel. Hard to say what exactly caused it (or if it is multiple factors).

Maybe the sales drop has something to do with the warning that says it is Region 2 encoding.before you claimed, "Some are inferring they are related" and took your position about PotC falling farther.

When you say stuff like:
... is the most dramatic drop in sales ranking you can think of ...I wonder why you are even here.
Again, like I said. Drop in rankings is normal and all titlea drop in rankings. Including PoTC and Apocalypto and Casine Royale.....the list goes not. You cannot use correlation to show causation. The last I looked PE HD DVD was still the best selling HD title on Amazon or close to the best....a dramatic fall would be IF it went from 4 to 100 IMHO. 4 to 12 seems to be an insignificant change and seems totally normal. Even unit sales should slip....I used PoTC again, as an illustration to show that sales drop week upon week as a normal behavior...I have already explained to you once that we looked at the graphs of stock numbers and this was not a normal drop like other things have as they get further from their release dates. Again, you can claim all you want that the PE pattern matches the normal drops, but coming it doesn't. Do I need to explain it again?
Are you even trying to understand the point or just trying to be obstinate?I'm wondering the same thing about you. I understand the point and wonder why you are claiming it when all you have to do is look at the data and think a little. I've already explained it. This is not one of those normal drops after release like you are trying to make people think it is. Have you even looked at the chart of the stock numbers at Amazon, or would you rather just claim this is how things normally go?

--Darin

Darin,

My point is that the absolute difference between the individual rankings varies and the number of units between the ranks probably varies. As such, it doesnt make much sense to look at percentages in terms of assessing "significance". Here is an example:I already understand that you can make up a case where it isn't. I'm talking about indicating things, where we know what we are dealing with (and we checked the stock graphs as I have said more than once). Amazon could have some really screwed up distribution for their rankings, but there is much more likely to be a relative distribution that would have more absolute sales volume space with things at the top.

In general, the percentage changes in ranking are something that anybody trying to figure out what is going on should look at and would be foolish to just look at the absolute change, or give the absolute change higher precedence when they are in very different regions (like down in the top 10 against something that is down past 100, other than the caveat I mentioned). The reason is that with normal statistics for sales like things like DVDs, the number of sales required to jump 10 spots is likely to be much small down at 100 than once things get into the top 10. There can be exceptions, which is one reason we looked at the stock charts which supported what we said.

Would you agree or disagree with the following statement:

With Amazon rankings, a title will normally have to add less percentage of sales increase to go from ranking #5050 to #5000 than it would to go from #12 to #4.

As far as PE on the 2 formats for the last 45 days, here is the chart I got:

--Darin

I just noticed that PE just dropped to #15. I realize some here would argue that a drop from #4 to #15 in 3 or 4 days almost 2 months after release is normal. I don't see it that way. As I said, I don't know the cause, but if anybody can show me any other title that has exhibited behavior like this, I would like to see it. I hope I won't get examples of things falling 11 places in a different range, like from #100 to #111, as if those are the same thing.

People can look at the stock chart here if they want.

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000MRAAJW

Click on the graph on the right to activate it and then you can zoom in with the right button on the mouse and then selecting the zoom.

--Darin

Darin, I agree with you in that since the BB announcement that the avg ranking of HD DVD titles on Amazon has dropped. However, so has the rankings for BD - but by not as much. So would one infer that the announcement was bad for both formats on the whole?

Also, there are those who feel that June 26th HD DVD will sell more disks. I feel that is impossible. There are far too many PS3 players for HD DVD to get closer than 40%, irespective of how many catalog titles are released on HD DVD that week....The much larger PS3 base I believes guarantees a 30K or so weekly sales. So, until Tosh can get to around 20% of PS3 players in the market, I don't see HD DVD beating BD movie sales outright on any week.....JMHO.

Darin, I agree with you in that since the BB announcement that the avg ranking of HD DVD titles on Amazon has dropped. However, so has the rankings for BD - but by not as much. So would one infer that the announcement was bad for both formats on the whole?It is a matter of degree from the norm. When things happen that are outside of norm people tend to perk up and wonder why.

I made a point to say that it was hard to say what caused it before you made your claim:
It's amazing the type of FUD that so called 'objective' BD supporters are throwing around.I have looked at the stock number chart for PE on BD here:

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000MRAAJM

and I do not see the out of the ordinary behavior that I see with the PE on HD DVD one since about Tuesday afternoon. It is easy to see the slope of the stock graph change in a way that correlated with the drop in ranking for the HD DVD version. Three days ago at this time the HD DVD version was at #5 and the BD at #14. Now I see #15 vs #17.

I hope we don't have to start taking a position that everything changes some, so we can't discuss out of the ordinary changes.

--Darin

Darin,

My point is that it is mathematical incorrect to look at percentage changes in rankings. There is an entire area of statistics that deals with testing rankings and other non-parametric data.

I already understand that you can make up a case where it isn't.

The implication of this statement, is that my case is the exception, rather than the rule. Unfortunately, most ranked data doesnt approach interval status, which is generally why ranks are used.


I'm talking about indicating things, where we know what we are dealing with (and we checked the stock graphs as I have said more than once).

But you dont really know what you are dealing with. You are using stock graphs, and then making assumptions about that data to support your point.

In general, the percentage changes in ranking are something that anybody trying to figure out what is going on should look at


If that makes you feel better, go for it.


and would be foolish to just look at the absolute change, or give the absolute change higher precedence when they are in very different regions

Under the conditions you outlined, the appropriate metric would be percentage change - but that percentage would be based on actual numbers, and thus conclusions regarding significance would be meaningful.

Essentially, you want to use data that has been transformed twice to make conclusions, with one of those transformations being statistically inappropriate.

As to your assertions about PE -

I realize some here would argue that a drop from #4 to #15 in 3 or 4 days almost 2 months after release is normal


It very well may not be normal, based on historical trends. And that drop may be due to the BlockBuster announcement. All of that may be true.

What you dont know though is whether that represents a signficant decrease in sales. The drop in rank might only be the result of a change of a couple of thousand discs, which in the grand scheme of things is not a big deal.

ack_bk



I just dont understand the logic of this. The numbers are so miniscule, the difference in absolute disc sales between number 1 and number 10 probably amounts to 6-8K discs.

JPB estimates between 15 and 20K discs for the number 1 seller.

Wow, I can see it now - Universal stock holders demanding that the entire board of directors be fired, and keel hauled because they are missing selling 20 or 30K discs a month.

All this jabber can be fun I guess, but really it is no more than a tempest in a tea pot.


If the numbers are so low that they don't even care, why are they bothering to release anything at all? That is where your logic eventually leads. Are you really trying to say that Universal couldn't care less about how their titles sell?

Looks like the dreaded PS3 demographic that prefers flashy stuff like "Ghost Rider" wins a big one at the expense of the girlie-oriented flicks and other miscellanous stuff. Between these BD titles and Universal's slew of releases (other than "Breach") it was a bad week for just-released catalogue titles all-around. :(

I really hope some day people will stop pretending there is a PS3 demographic other than "movie lovers." If 90%+ of dual format releases, regardless of genre, sell better on Blu-ray does that mean they are just normal people who love movies, or that all HD DVD owners are also part of the "PS3 demographic" and they just don't own a PS3.

Next week I'm betting we'll see Bridge To Terabithia high in the charts. Given that, just what exactly would you say the "PS3 demographic" is made up of?

So Darin, let me get this straight. You are saying the the drop in ranking from 4 to 12, is the most dramatic drop in sales ranking you can think of and in your opinion it shows the deep impact that the BB announcement is having on sales?

Again, like I said. Drop in rankings is normal and all titlea drop in rankings. Including PoTC and Apocalypto and Casine Royale.....the list goes not. You cannot use correlation to show causation. The last I looked PE HD DVD was still the best selling HD title on Amazon or close to the best....a dramatic fall would be IF it went from 4 to 100 IMHO. 4 to 12 seems to be an insignificant change and seems totally normal. Even unit sales should slip....I used PoTC again, as an illustration to show that sales drop week upon week as a normal behavior...

Are you even trying to understand the point or just trying to be obstinate?

Why is it that you continue to dodge the question about the exact sales? I provided you with a graph showing a clear momentum change, and yet you refuse to discuss it. You claim to be trying to fight FUD, which is a noble thing to do, but you can't fight "disinformation" by ignoring information.

I just noticed that PE just dropped to #15. I realize some here would argue that a drop from #4 to #15 in 3 or 4 days almost 2 months after release is normal. I don't see it that way. As I said, I don't know the cause, but if anybody can show me any other title that has exhibited behavior like this, I would like to see it. I hope I won't get examples of things falling 11 places in a different range, like from #100 to #111, as if those are the same thing.

People can look at the stock chart here if they want.

http://www.eproductwars.com/asinsaleshistory.cfm?db=dvd&asin=B000MRAAJW

Click on the graph on the right to activate it and then you can zoom in with the right button on the mouse and then selecting the zoom.

--Darin

Darin,

I don't have time right now to get into this debate so I've tried to stay out, and I will again after this post.

You do have some points but the main reason for the rank fall for PE seem to be that there is a mega sale on boxed TV shows in SD. There is a whole bunch of those in the top list that weren't there a week ago.

Not saying PE haven't dropped some sales on Amazon the last couple of days but it is one factor.

I really hope some day people will stop pretending there is a PS3 demographic other than "movie lovers." If 90%+ of dual format releases, regardless of genre, sell better on Blu-ray does that mean they are just normal people who love movies, or that all HD DVD owners are also part of the "PS3 demographic" and they just don't own a PS3.

Next week I'm betting we'll see Bridge To Terabithia high in the charts. Given that, just what exactly would you say the "PS3 demographic" is made up of?

Agreed. Nevermind the fact that Ghost Rider made over $115 million domestically at the box office and was the top DVD seller for the week as well. I guess all the PS2 owners must have bought the DVD....

I really hope some day people will stop pretending there is a PS3 demographic other than "movie lovers." If 90%+ of dual format releases, regardless of genre, sell better on Blu-ray does that mean they are just normal people who love movies, or that all HD DVD owners are also part of the "PS3 demographic" and they just don't own a PS3.

Next week I'm betting we'll see Bridge To Terabithia high in the charts. Given that, just what exactly would you say the "PS3 demographic" is made up of?

An unproportionally large number of people under thirtysomething (including small children) compared to the average DVD owner?

Darin,

My point is that it is mathematical incorrect to look at percentage changes in rankings. There is an entire area of statistics that deals with testing rankings and other non-parametric data.Yep. And I bet the people applying this to Amazon would realize what a mistake it would be to look at the absolute change in the rankings and think that was the most important. Why not just give straight answers to my questions:
Or would you try to make people think that a drop from #4 to #12 is less indicative of fast dropping sales than a drop from #119 to #145?
...
Should the size of drops on Amazon be based on absolute change (so 5000 to 5050 would be considered a bigger drop than 100 to 140)?
...
What you dont know though is whether that represents a signficant decrease in sales. The drop in rank might only be the result of a change of a couple of thousand discs, which in the grand scheme of things is not a big deal.Do you know how to use the stock graphs I have pointed to? If something was selling 500 a day and all of a sudden goes to 250 a day almost 2 months after release (those numbers aren't exact) then that is a big deal as far being an out of the ordinary event that it is perfectly reasonable to discuss. Whether it is significant to the format is another story, but we are discussing whether what we are seeing with it is normal or not.

I hope you will answer at least my 2nd question this time. If you are trying to look for indications of things do you just go by the absolute change in ranking (if you aren't just going to throw your arms up and claim that the data doesn't give us any indications about what is going on)?

--Darin

Plazman, in your view of what normal sales decline would be for a hypothetical product with 10,000 interested consumers?

A) 1000 consumers buy a product for 10 days and then sales drop to 0 after those consumers are satisfied.
B) A good portion of the consumers buy on day 1 with sales decreasing in a linear fashion following the initial sale.

Because I've shown you evidence of Amazon sales going flat for Planet Earth HD DVD thus leading to its drop in ranks, and you have called that normal behavior, which seems to imply you think A is the typical sales pattern.

On my PDA I can't see the graph, but what does the graph for something like Apocalypto look? I recall several BD titles during a sale at Amzon spike up and then rapidly fade....

In any case, overall I am surprised at how low sales for both formats continue to be. Perhaps the BB announcement will help BD, but looking at the rankings on Amazon of the top 10, both seem to be falling relative to SD!

I am wondering what sales for neutral titles were and what the market shares were. I believe studios care about that one.

I am assuming the ranking for HD DVD hardware should have also fallen relative to BD players, given that the rebate is over. The rebate did show that consumers are price sensitive::

Atleast I am not seeing much market growth in these numbers lately. While the HD DVD marketing has been quite poor, the BDA has gone all out and I would have expected a stringer trend. Perhaps next week will be it. So I am waiting for that. IF we see a 75% share for BD, I will be the first to admit, that the situation for HD DVD is grim. But chugging along at 30% market share while sales are flat and neutral title sales are close....we're talking stalemate in the short term. JMHO.

Darin,

I don't have time right now to get into this debate so I've tried to stay out, and I will again after this post.

You do have some points but the main reason for the rank fall for PE seem to be that there is a mega sale on boxed TV shows in SD. There is a whole bunch of those in the top list that weren't there a week ago.

Not saying PE haven't dropped some sales on Amazon the last couple of days but it is one factor.Thanks. That is good information. The stock graphs for PE on HD DVD still show a change in slope around Tuesday, but that is good to know.

--Darin

An unproportionally large number of people under thirtysomething (including small children) compared to the average DVD owner?

That sounds like you are describing the "Early Adopter" crowd which would include HD DVD buyers. You should probably be more specific if you want us to believe they are different.

theflux, you do realize that your option A makes no sense in this context. PE HD DVD is still the #1 selling HD title, or has been during this time.

It was replaced in ranking not by another HD disk, but by SD DVD.

I am saying IF PE HD DVD sales have fallen, then all HD disk sales have fallen since it is still #1. At least that is how I understand logicaly sales rankings work...

So, if PE HD DVD is zero, then ALL titles are also zero!

You get the point, right? I can't believe I am explaining this stuff!

theflux, you do realize that your option A makes no sense in this context. PE HD DVD is still the #1 selling HD title, or has been during this time.

It was replaced in ranking not by another HD disk, but by SD DVD.

I am saying IF PE HD DVD sales have fallen, then all HD disk sales have fallen since it is still #1. At least that is how I understand logicaly sales rankings work...

So, if PE HD DVD is zero, then ALL titles are also zero!

You get the point, right?

I get the point that you've still never addressed that the steady sales I've shown you data for have turned flat recently. I am perfectly aware that if an SD DVD sells better it will move up the ranks and displace those below it. However, the SD DVDs are selling better because Planet Earth HD DVD suddenly stopped selling apparently. What do you make of that?

That sounds like you are describing the "Early Adopter" crowd which would include HD DVD buyers. You should probably be more specific if you want us to believe they are different.

Well I believe the average PS3 buyer is younger than the average buyer of a standalone HD DVD player. There is a difference in what movies different age groups 'on the average' prefer. Can't see what's so strange about that. Why don't you give us something specific on how come both groups are 'exactly' the same as you seem to imply.

Darin,

Answers to your question.

Or would you try to make people think that a drop from #4 to #12 is less indicative of fast dropping sales than a drop from #119 to #145?

My answer, as I have said before, is that I dont know. Might it represent faster dropping sales, yes, but then again it might not, because we dont know the absolute numbers. Your implication that it necessarily represents a faster drop in sales is unfounded and statstically incorrect.

Should the size of drops on Amazon be based on absolute change (so 5000 to 5050 would be considered a bigger drop than 100 to 140)?

Again, the answer is, in the absence of absolute sales numbers, who knows.

As I have repeatedly said, a lot of people make a big deal about these rankings and changes in the rankings, but when the top title for the week sold 15K units and the number 2 title sold what, 12K units,none of this makes that big a deal in terms of determining the outcome of the format war.

If something was selling 500 a day and all of a sudden goes to 250 a day almost 2 months after release (those numbers aren't exact) then that is a big deal as far being an out of the ordinary event that it is perfectly reasonable to discuss.

And I have never denied that - it is out of the ordinary and well worth discussing, particularly in the context of various press announcements. However, note what you are doing. You are using absolute sales numbers and not rankings. Under these conditions, what you are doing is perfectly appropriate and I would agree with. But you arent discussing rankings in the example you gave.


Whether it is significant to the format is another story, but we are discussing whether what we are seeing with it is normal or not.

Then we dont disagree.


(if you aren't just going to throw your arms up and claim that the data doesn't give us any indications about what is going on)?

Darin, the ONLY thing the rankings tell us is that one item is more popular than another - it DOES NOT tell us how much more popular.

If Item A sold 99 units and Item B sold 100 units, Item B would have a higher ranking.

If Item A sold 5 units and Item B sold a 100 units, Item B would have a higher ranking.

If the ONLY information you had was that

B = Rank 1
A = Rank 2

you have no way of distinguishing between the two scenarios above, hence you cannot make any conclusions regarding the magnitude of preference.

Ok, Plazman I'll make it easy for you.
http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/6072/planetearthhddvdjb0.jpg
See how the sales went flat recently? I don't care what caused it, but that is indisputably what is causing Planet Earth HD DVD to drop in ranking, and it certainly doesn't look like a natural occurrence.

If it were following the previous trends it would have shifted another 500-1000 units, and it has not.

Well I believe the average PS3 buyer is younger than the average buyer of a standalone HD DVD player. There is a difference in what movies different age groups 'on the average' prefer. Can't see what's so strange about that. Why don't you give us something specific on how come both groups are 'exactly' the same as you seem to imply.

Identical movies of varying content and target demographic sell better on Blu-ray. There are exceptions of course, but when aren't there. If the "PS3 Demographic" just like "hurr explosions" movies like some try to say, why would Happy Feet sell better for Blu-ray?

Now why don't you give me some evidence to back up your claim? And sales of exclusive day-and-date releases aren't it.

Identical movies of varying content and target demographic sell better on Blu-ray. There are exceptions of course, but when aren't there. If the "PS3 Demographic" just like "hurr explosions" movies like some try to say, why would Happy Feet sell better for Blu-ray?

Because it's a kids movie?

So you are saying that PS3 owners and HD DVD owners like exactly the same movies exactly the same amount? If not there IS a difference.

To be fair, instead of looking at the Amazon rank of PE HD-DVD by itself, we should be looking at its rank relative to the Blu-ray version. This eliminates many of the speculative variables being tossed around that could be affecting the title's intrinsic demand (Amazon sale offers, the last couple weeks being an artificial spike due to Discovery re-airing, etc).

If you look at darin's pic of the ranks side-by-side (post 7809), and adding in today's current rank of 13 for HD-DVD and 17 for BD, the only real trend that I see is that the title's dropping on both formats. Maybe a little more for HD-DVD, but it had further to fall to begin with.

To be fair, instead of looking at the Amazon rank of PE HD-DVD by itself, we should be looking at its rank relative to the Blu-ray version. This eliminates many of the speculative variables being tossed around that could be affecting the title's intrinsic demand (Amazon sale offers, the last couple weeks being an artificial spike due to Discovery re-airing, etc).

If you look at darin's pic of the ranks side-by-side (post 7809), and adding in today's current rank of 13 for HD-DVD and 17 for BD, the only real trend that I see is that the title's dropping on both formats. Maybe a little more for HD-DVD, but it had further to fall to begin with.

Any thoughts on why HD DVDs drop happened the day after the Blockbuster announcement?

Coincidence?

When did (does) the promotion for the HD-DVD players end? I thought it was at the beginning of this week which mind explain a few things...

Because it's a kids movie?

So you are saying that PS3 owners and HD DVD owners like exactly the same movies exactly the same amount? If not there IS a difference.

You are trying to turn the argument into absolutes in an attempt to avoid providing evidence for your claims.

If you don't have any basis for your claims other than "video games have explosions so Blu-ray owners must just like movies with explosions" just say so and we can leave it at that. There's nothing wrong with having an opinion, even if there is no sales data to back it up.

I don't have a problem with Blu-ray and HD DVD owners preferring different movies in differing amounts, but I do have a problem with people saying "oh its just the PS3 demographic" whenever a movie tops the Blu-ray charts and happens to have action. It is just a cheap shot taken to try to degrade the format's performance.

You are trying to turn the argument into absolutes in an attempt to avoid providing evidence for your claims.

If you don't have any basis for your claims other than "video games have explosions so Blu-ray owners must just like movies with explosions" just say so and we can leave it at that. There's nothing wrong with having an opinion, even if there is no sales data to back it up.

I don't have a problem with Blu-ray and HD DVD owners preferring different movies in differing amounts, but I do have a problem with people saying "oh its just the PS3 demographic" whenever a movie tops the Blu-ray charts and happens to have action. It is just a cheap shot taken to try to degrade the format's performance.

Why should I say that when I never have?

Why don't you find a post where I have said anything about explosions? If your made up quotes give you problems I don't know who we should blame that on.

I've never said that it was anything but my opinion that there was a difference. The only one saying anything to belittle the PS3 crowd here is you.

My answer, as I have said before, is that I dont know.We could say that about just about anything discussed here. It seems like you are using the excuse that you don't know with 100% certaintity, so these aren't indicative of anything. If somebody gave you the rankings and the movements and made you choose what was the most likely I bet you would then decide that where things were in the rankings and the percentage changes were relevant, and not just their absolute changes, especially if something important was on the line if you got it right.
Might it represent faster dropping sales, yes, but then again it might not, because we dont know the absolute numbers. Your implication that it necessarily represents a faster drop in sales is unfounded and statstically incorrect.I assume you know what the word indicative means. The first question even had "less indicative" in it. It doesn't have to be with 100% certainty and the question is whether the absolute change is the one most indicative of which has dropped more, if that is the information you have.

A correct statement that it isn't certain doesn't mean it isn't indicative of something.

You could not even look at the rankings as you can just say they don't tell you anything that you know for sure. It does not necessarily represent a faster drop in sales. There are exceptions. But a small absolute change is going to tend to be a bigger indicator at low ranking numbers than at high ranking numbers for rankings like we are discussing here.
And I have never denied that - it is out of the ordinary and well worth discussing, particularly in the context of various press announcements. However, note what you are doing. You are using absolute sales numbers and not rankings. Under these conditions, what you are doing is perfectly appropriate and I would agree with. But you arent discussing rankings in the example you gave.I am using both. The stock charts largely verify the indications that were coming from the rankings change.
Darin, the ONLY thing the rankings tell us is that one item is more popular than another - it DOES NOT tell us how much more popular.

If Item A sold 99 units and Item B sold 100 units, Item B would have a higher ranking.

If Item A sold 5 units and Item B sold a 100 units, Item B would have a higher ranking.

If the ONLY information you had was that

B = Rank 1
A = Rank 2

you have no way of distinguishing between the two scenarios above, hence you cannot make any conclusions regarding the magnitude of preference.As I said before, you can come up with exceptions. Part of this is context. We are talking about way over 10k different discs for sale on Amazon that get ranked. These things don't tell us with 100% confidence. They are indicators. Something moving 50 spots while starting at 5000 should not make people suspicious that something big in the same way that changing 50 spots while ranked amongst the top 100 items should. Much like if all the people in the world were ranked by income, moving up 10 spots while starting at number one million wouldn't be likely to require near the change (and maybe none) as moving up 10 spots while already in the top 20. Yet, there are cases where one would be bigger than the other, which is why it isn't with 100% confidence. Heck, even the numbers for disc sales aren't with 100% confidence because the data isn't that accurate, but these things are still very indicative of what is going on and most of us don't just throw are arms up and say we don't know. We try to discuss them rationally while being aware that the data isn't likely to be 100% accurate (and try to word things so people know they aren't absolute).

--Darin

If you look at darin's pic of the ranks side-by-side (post 7809), and adding in today's current rank of 13 for HD-DVD and 17 for BD, the only real trend that I see is that the title's dropping on both formats. Maybe a little more for HD-DVD, but it had further to fall to begin with.Why would it lead the HD DVD for so long by a good amount in the rankings and then all of a sudden drop to be close in a relatively short period? I just checked and they are now at #16 and #17, with the HD DVD ahead by one ranking.

--Darin

Why should I say that when I never have?

Why don't you find a post where I have said anything about explosions? If your made up quotes give you problems I don't know who we should blame that on.

I've never said that it was anything but my opinion that there was a difference. The only one saying anything to belittle the PS3 crowd here is you.

And another post where you give absolutely no evidence to support where you got that the "PS3 Demographic" was

An unproportionally large number of people under thirtysomething (including small children) compared to the average DVD owner?

Instead you again try to find a little spec in my post and focus on that. Obviously I wasn't quoting you, I was quoting what the mindset of a person who believes in the PS3 movie buying demographic stereotype.

You asked for evidence and I gave you some; I asked for evidence and you continue to not produce it. If you don't have anything to back you statement up with, this is a waste of my time.

Why would it lead the HD DVD for so long by a good amount in the rankings and then all of a sudden drop to be close in a relatively short period? I just checked and they are now at #16 and #17, with the HD DVD ahead by one ranking.
It could very well be indicative of something to do with the Blockbuster situation. Or it could have something to do with the 11 SD DVD boxsets ranked above it that are on sale. There's a positively rediculous number of boxsets ranked high at the moment, they make up 15 of the top 25, 29 of the top 50, and half of the top 100.

It could be a combination of the two, or there could be even more factors. If it drops past the Blu-Ray version however, we'll know that the BB announcement was involved for sure.

It could very well be indicative of something to do with the Blockbuster situation. Or it could have something to do with the 11 SD DVD boxsets ranked above it that are on sale. There's a positively rediculous number of boxsets ranked high at the moment, they make up 15 of the top 25, 29 of the top 50, and half of the top 100.

It could be a combination of the two, or there could be even more factors. If it drops past the Blu-Ray version however, we'll know that the BB announcement was involved for sure.I wouldn't say that last part. It still could be from something else mainly. Like the warning on there about being region 2 (I don't know if that was there last week), more people buying the wrong one (thinking it would play in their DVD player that has HD output) and returning it this week, or other things.

--Darin

Darin,

We could say that about just about anything discussed here. It seems like you are using the excuse that you don't know with 100% certaintity, so these aren't indicative of anything.

One could, but I am not. I am saying what I am saying based on my statistical training and over 20 years of analyzing data. Each metric has its appropriate uses and limitations, and I am not going to draw possibly falacious conclusions based on the wrong use of a metric. Ranking inform as to preference, and do not give any inherent information regarding magnitude of preference. Just as correlation does not imply causation, in spite of the fact that the overwhelming majority of people make that mistake.

I bet you would then decide that where things were in the rankings and the percentage changes were relevant

That is a bet you would lose. Yes changes in rankings are relevant, and that is not something I would deny. However, I would never say that a change in rank from 1 to 2 implies a 50% drop. Nor would I necessarily say that the drop from 1 to 2 was necessarily bigger from 3 to 4. Nor would I say that the Number 1 item is preferred twice as much as the second ranked item, or 3 times as much as the third ranked item. Nor would I say that the absolute size of the drop from 1 to 2 is bigger than the absolute drop from 3 to 4. The information to make those conclusions simply does not exist in Rankings.

I assume you know what the word indicative means. The first question even had "less indicative" in it. It doesn't have to be with 100% certainty and the question is whether the absolute change is the one most indicative of which has dropped more, if that is the information you have.

Yes I know what the term indicative means. However, you are asking a non-question from a statistical point of view, unless you want to do non-parametric statistics on it.

As I said before, you can come up with exceptions.

And as I said, you are assuming that your scenario is the norm and is correct. You have no evidence that is true.

We are talking about way over 10k different discs for sale on Amazon that get ranked.

But for HDM you are simply wrong. When the numbers come out, you are looking at 20K discs for the top seller across all venues. Again, jpb estimated 15K units for Ghost Rider this week based on the NPD numbers. That is from all venues. Assume Amazon sold 50% of those for a total of 7.5K discs. The number 2 ranked title on the list PE sold 25% of that or a little under 2 K discs. That is a about 5.5KL discs.

But a small absolute change is going to tend to be a bigger indicator at low ranking numbers than at high ranking numbers for rankings like we are discussing here.

Only if you make certain assumptions, which you seem to be willing to make and seem to believe are NECESSARILY true, about the underlying distribution.

If you makes you happy to do so, again, be my guest. However, please dont believe that what you are doing has much basis in actual statistical analysis.

That is a bet you would lose. Yes changes in rankings are relevant, and that is not something I would deny. However, I would never say that a change in rank from 1 to 2 implies a 50% drop. Nor would I necessarily say that the drop from 1 to 2 was necessarily bigger from 3 to 4. Nor would I say that the Number 1 item is preferred twice as much as the second ranked item, or 3 times as much as the third ranked item. Nor would I say that the absolute size of the drop from 1 to 2 is bigger than the absolute drop from 3 to 4. The information to make those conclusions simply does not exist in Rankings.I already mentioned one of the problems with 1 to 2 and the like. We aren't talking about that here. Any single step can be a single disc. Eight steps on Amazon are very unlikely to be in the top 10, but on Amazon selling an extra disc on a day can easily move a title down near #10,000 up a lot of spots (hundreds of spots).

I will say with confidence that in general a drop from #4 on Amazon rankings to #12 will indicate a larger percentage drop in item sales than a drop from #5000 to #5008. I wish that I could bet on something with odds like that every day of the week. If each case where those drops in ranking happened was investigate and the percentage change in sales was looked at to see if it was higher from the drop from 4 to 12, you wouldn't bet against that at even odds, would you? At 10:1 odds in your favor would you bet that the drop from 5000 to 5008 actually had the higher percentage drop in item sales?
But for HDM you are simply wrong. When the numbers come out, you are looking at 20K discs for the top seller across all venues. Again, jpb estimated 15K units for Ghost Rider this week based on the NPD numbers. That is from all venues. Assume Amazon sold 50% of those for a total of 7.5K discs. The number 2 ranked title on the list PE sold 25% of that or a little under 2 K discs. That is a about 5.5KL discs.The rankings aren't just for HDM on Amazon, they are for all discs. The fact that these are HDMs doesn't make much difference as far as their rankings on Amazon compared to what sales were required to get those rankings. If they were DVDs it wouldn't matter. If you think it would as far as what the movements in rankings are indicative of, then please explain why you think a disc being an HD disc is relevant to this discussion of what it takes to move up or down in the rankings. I'm a little perplexed as why you think the fact that they are HDMs matters to this discussion of movements in the rankings for discs.

Do you disagree with the following statement:
Something moving 50 spots while starting at 5000 should not make people suspicious that something big happened to sales in the same way that changing 50 spots while ranked amongst the top 100 items should.On a graph showing the whole range one would look pretty much flat, while the other would look like falling off a cliff.

--Darin

Planet Earth HD DVD (#15) is now ranked lower than Planet Earth BD (#14). I think this is the first time this has ever happened, and seems to poke a hole in the argument that both are dropping by an equal amount.

darin,

Something moving 50 spots while starting at 5000 should not make people suspicious that something big in the same way that changing 50 spots while ranked amongst the top 100 items should.

Sure, most people would believe that 50 to 100 is more important than 5000 to 5050. Most people also believe a correlation implies causation. Big deal. A lot of people believe a lot of things that are not necessarily true.

Sure, most people would believe that 50 to 100 is more important than 5000 to 5050. Most people also believe a correlation implies causation. Big deal. A lot of people believe a lot of things that are not necessarily true.Would you take those bets I mentioned at even odds? At 10:1 odds in your favor?

--Darin

And George,

Are you going to explain why you said:
But for HDM you are simply wrong.What does the discs being HDMs have to do with anything? The rankings are for all discs on Amazon.

--Darin

On second thoughts, it does look like that HD DVD has lost a lot of momentum on Amazon. The avg. sales rank of top titles have nose dived. So, this could well be not just the effect from the BB announcement, but also the publicity surrounding it.

Looking at what is going on at Amazon right now, I'd say if next weeks Neilson data are bad for HD DVD and then the following week, I guess BD may well carry the day by the end of this year - when we defacto have one format. The trend should be very troubling to the HD DVD group and at this point they have to think of a counter move.

I am not sure how well the Sony player is doing saleswise, but aesthetically it's good looking, even if the demo I saw didn't exactly wow me - but it has wow looks and in the market it matters.

This may be politically incorrect, but the easiest way for HD DVD to gain momentum is to have MSFT announce an xbox SKU with built in HD DVD drive. While HD DVD certainly has the long term advantages, BD will be pushing hard in the next few months.

Since MSFT already has an xbox without HD DVD drive, they could have a media version with all the bells and whistles for $599. It would make MSFT more, rather than less competitive with the PS3.

After some thought, I believe unless we have a major announcement like that from MSFT or a very low cost product from Walmart or other major announcement it will be hard for HD DVD to sustain their momentum that they picked up in Q2.

In my books Q1 went to BD, Q2 to HD DVD - reason is that HD DVD wins with a stalemate, BD needs the quick knock out. This weeks Neilson shows a stalemate - in that IF this weeks market share were to persist, no one would change their current position.

JMHO.

Darin,

What does the discs being HDMs have to do with anything? The rankings are for all discs on Amazon.

If the rankings are for all discs, then Amazon doesnt sell that many discs or the numbers of HD discs that get released are seriously wrong.

If I remember correctly, CR in BD was ranked in the top 5 for amazon. However, it supposedly sold a total of 25-30K units in its first week - total sales. So, if you assume that Amazon sells 50% of all DVDs, then that means the 5th ranked item sold 13K units.

So any way you slice it, your assertion that the rankings are based on way more than 10K units per ranking is wrong.

It seems the hd-a2 is still the number one player on amazon, and the a20 is number 8. What if people are waiting for there 5 titles before they progress on to more. Also there wasn't really anything new realesed wise on hd-dvd this week was there. I might be wrong on that. Isn't there 10 hd-dvd's also coming out on tuesday and only 2 on blu-ray?

On second thoughts, it does look like that HD DVD has lost a lot of momentum on Amazon. The avg. sales rank of top titles have nose dived. So, this could well be not just the effect from the BB announcement, but also the publicity surrounding it.

Looking at what is going on at Amazon right now, I'd say if next weeks Neilson data are bad for HD DVD and then the following week, I guess BD may well carry the day by the end of this year - when we defacto have one format. The trend should be very troubling to the HD DVD group and at this point they have to think of a counter move.


Plazman, you've gained my respect for looking at the information at hand and changing your stance. Now if everyone else could be so reasonable...

It seems the hd-a2 is still the number one player on amazon, and the a20 is number 8. What if people are waiting for there 5 titles before they progress on to more. Also there wasn't really anything new realesed wise on hd-dvd this week was there. I might be wrong on that. Isn't there 10 hd-dvd's also coming out on tuesday and only 2 on blu-ray?

Why would no releases cause the sales of other movies to drop? It doesn't make sense.

How devastating is it to the HD-DVD group if HD-DVD does not have the higher sales for the week of the June 26th Releases?

Or is it not devastating at all?

~Josh

How devastating is it to the HD-DVD group if HD-DVD does not have the higher sales for the week of the June 26th Releases?

~Josh

Just wait until next week"... "ok, next week".... "I mean next week"

George,


Only if you make certain assumptions, which you seem to be willing to make and seem to believe are NECESSARILY true, about the underlying distribution.


Since none of our data sources capture the full sample space, any inference we draw on this forum hold 'only if you make certain assumptions about the underlying distribution'. (And that is true even if you use non-parametric methods, as you surely know.)


Ranking inform as to preference, and do not give any inherent information regarding magnitude of preference.


Rankings are order statistics, so you can draw inferences on magnitude (as long as you make assumptions on the distributions , which you need for any inference).

Obviously, no one will deny that order stats aren't as powerful as sample averages to draw inferences. But inferences are possible. (And while Plaz correctly argues that correlation does not prove causation, that holds true for any statistical inference.)

If the rankings are for all discs, then Amazon doesnt sell that many discs or the numbers of HD discs that get released are seriously wrong.They don't necessarily sell that many compared to the market out there.
If I remember correctly, CR in BD was ranked in the top 5 for amazon. However, it supposedly sold a total of 25-30K units in its first week - total sales. So, if you assume that Amazon sells 50% of all DVDs, then that means the 5th ranked item sold 13K units.My memory is that from checking the stock numbers for CR on Amazon it seemed to be selling about 300 per day for a few days there, or around 2k for the first week that it was out on Amazon (not counting preorders).
So any way you slice it, your assertion that the rankings are based on way more than 10K units per ranking is wrong.There is some miscommunication there. 10k+ different discs is what I was talking about. It is actually more than 100k based on how low the rankings go. For instance, Van Helsing on HD DVD is currently ranked #9621 here:

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B000E1ZK50******nosim/tonyswebsit02-20

By the time you click on that it might have moved a thousand spots or more. But it likely won't mean much other than maybe 1 person bought another copy or it went longer without anybody buying one. Based on stock numbers it might sell 2-4 a day. If a person bought one and it moved from #9621 to #8621 I wouldn't even put that in the same league as a title movie from #1000 to #1, even though in absolute terms the #9621 to #8261 is more ranking positions.

--Darin

nescio,

Since none of our data sources capture the full sample space, any inference we draw on this forum hold 'only if you make certain assumptions about the underlying distribution'. (And that is true even if you use non-parametric methods, as you surely know.)

You are right. However, those arent the assumptions I was talking about. Rankings, as you point out are ordinal data, and not interval data. Hence, there is no inherent arithmetic relationship between individual intervals - the size of the change from 1 rank to the next can vary. However, as you know, with interval data, the size from 1 number to the next is always the same.

Rankings are order statistics, so you can draw inferences on magnitude (as long as you make assumptions on the distributions , which you need for any inference).

Yes, you need to make assumptions for inferences - but with interval data such as raw sales numbers, you dont need to make assumptions about your scale to make magnitude assessments, as you must with ordinal data.

In the case of sales data of discs, I cant imagine anything close to even intervals between ranks, hence I dont buy the conclusion that percentage changes in rankings are meaningful.

Why would no releases cause the sales of other movies to drop? It doesn't make sense.I think it makes some sense and was planning on mentioning that to plazman in a "don't despair" response. Especially at places that charge shipping I think many people tend to bunch their orders up. I believe that one big title can get other titles to sell better. Of course, there is also the issue of people having limited amounts of money to spend, but in general I can see how having no new releases could cause some other titles to drop.

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks as Toshiba did report selling quite a few players in sale. It does seem like the ranking for the 100th best ranked HD DVD rose after that. Not sure if that makes much sense or how good an indicator that is, but the 100th ranked HD DVD shown on hdgamedb.com right now is at #7381. I remember when it was usually over #10000. Another way to look at this is the black graph here:

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/graphs/top10000-1-1-All.jpg

Maybe a few of those lower ranked titles are selling to new owners each day.

--Darin

i still cant believe hd-dvd cant recover more. it had a 100 usa dollar player price drop! pretty good marketing and still bluray rules the software sales.

the week of june 26th. hd-dvd should rule that week. maybe we see some good announcements as well from hd-dvd. if not, then i see the future pretty bleak until fourth quarter.

Don't expect any major change for a few months.


Just for fun ... here is what I wrote on 6/6.



1.3 M PS3s are in the US homes. Add a high figure of 100K Blu-ray players to that.

We have some 125K tosh players now along with 150K 360 add-ons. So,

effective BD players = 100K+1.3M*0.22 = 390K
effective HD players = 150K+150K*0.75 = 260K

That even gives a 1.5:1 advantage to BD - as reflected in movie sales. To counter that Tosh needs to sell 130K players quickly - and then sell at the rate of some 25K to 35K per month to counter PS3.

Let us assume Tosh is selling at a high rate of about 40K players per month. PS3 is selling at about 80K ... let us be generous and make that about 100K, so that 22% is close to 20K. Further let us assume add-on continues to sell at 10K per month. BD stand alone's sell at 7.5K per month.

So, in effect we have 40+10*0.75 - (20+7.5) = 20K effective increase of HD DVD players per month.

To even BD's effective players we need to wait for 130/20 = 6 months. So, if things stay the way they are (they never do !) - we should see HD DVD movie sales equal BD sales on a consistent basis by end of this year

In the case of sales data of discs, I cant imagine anything close to even intervals between ranks, hence I dont buy the conclusion that percentage changes in rankings are meaningful.The chance of even intervals is very unlikely. The odds are very high that the intervals are higher as you get closer to #1 (much like if you ranked the million richest people in the world). A single disc sale difference per day may be a thousand positions or more down at rankings like #5000 and beyond. Up in the top 10 selling an extra disc per day is unlikely to change the ranking a disc gets at all.

--Darin

Plazman, you've gained my respect for looking at the information at hand and changing your stance. Now if everyone else could be so reasonable...
I have to agree with this. :cool:

How devastating is it to the HD-DVD group if HD-DVD does not have the higher sales for the week of the June 26th Releases?

Or is it not devastating at all?

I'd say if BD doesn't show some impressive consistent gain in % - even after the BB announcement - it is actually bad for BD.

CED has some interesting comments about the BB announcement, I'll post when I get some time. Because of our Financial Year ending, I'm absolutely swamped with work.

I'd say if BD doesn't show some impressive consistent gain in % - even after the BB announcement - it is actually bad for BD.

CED has some interesting comments about the BB announcement, I'll post when I get some time. Because of our Financial Year ending, I'm absolutely swamped with work.

Agreed, though I don't expect it over night or to happen in just one week. Long term it definitely should have an effect. Especially when these 1,000+ stores actually start stocking blu-ray. When does that come into effect anyways? Hollywood Video got my business again tonight.

How devastating is it to the HD-DVD group if HD-DVD does not have the higher sales for the week of the June 26th Releases?

Or is it not devastating at all?

~Josh

It would not be devastating or surprising. Most of the titles are catalog and catalog titles just don't sell well on either format. I think there are good reasons for this, and the studios need to start thinking about it and not just pretending that this is back in the days of VHS or DVD.

Different game.

When does that come into effect anyways?
"Starting in July, Blockbuster outlets will begin carrying over 170 Blu-ray titles and will add additional titles as they are released from the studios."
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070618-blockbuster-puts-its-money-on-blu-ray.html
Other articles cite the same info.

thanks RUR, good to know. It will be nice to just walk to the corner to grab a flick, plus two rental stores is better than one :)

I'd say if BD doesn't show some impressive consistent gain in % - even after the BB announcement - it is actually bad for BD.

CED has some interesting comments about the BB announcement, I'll post when I get some time. Because of our Financial Year ending, I'm absolutely swamped with work.

I certainly disagree that Blu-ray needs to show a "consistent gain". This is like the politician, behind in the race, who redefines "victory" as only losing by only 20 points! Playing the expectation game is not going to work here.

We will not see a lot of attractive content from either format for a while. Both sides are preparing their fall efforts. The summer is the time for going outside and going to summer movies, not curling up in front of your TV with a new video.

For Blu-ray, the BD+ hurdle has got to be jumped before some studios make much of a showing. I understand that Fox has 100 titles ready to go if/when BD+ passes its tests.

Fall will tell the tale. Blu-ray should have a really impressive slate of new content available. It will be up to HD DVD not only to stay alive but to show that it can overtake based on the content that they have. If the second half of the year is like the first half, HD DVD will not be in good shape by CES 2008.

Looking at the slate of movies already released this year and expected, there is not a large number of blockbusters that will exclusive to HD DVD.

The jury is out this weekend on "Evan Almighty", we shall see about that one. :)

Extended list

1. Ghost Rider (100)
2. Planet Earth HD (26.72)
3. Breach (21.19)
4. Apocolypto (13.69)
5. POTC: DMC (13.60)
6. Planet Earth BD (13.12)
7. POTC: CBP (11.34)
8. Casino Royale (10.05)
9. Blood Diamond (6.71)
10. Primeval (6.69)
xx. Letters from Iwo Jima BD (6.49)
xx. Batman Begins (6.33)
xx. Flags of our Fathers HD (5.88)
xx. Letters from Iwo Jima HD (5.77)
xx. Flags of our Fathers BD (4.92)

yy. Departed combined (8.52)I just noticed that the Matrix box sets disappeared. I think the offer on Amazon was still going last week where people buying the HD-A2 could get 2 free movies if they also bought one of the Matrix sets. I don't see that anymore, so imagine they will drop further and we might not be able to track them week to week anymore (unless they come back in during a down week).

Looks like Batman Begins is back to being a rock for HD DVD though. Just as an estimate, if it did 1000 copies, some others would be:

1. Ghost Rider (15,800)
2. Planet Earth HD (4,220)
3. Breach (3,350)
4. Apocolypto (2,160)
5. POTC: DMC (2,150)
6. Planet Earth BD (2,070)
7. POTC: CBP (1,790)
8. Casino Royale (1,590)
9. Blood Diamond (1,060)
10. Primeval (1,060)
NOTE: In case it wasn't clear, the numbers above are just if Batman Begins sold 1000 and shouldn't be used as what actually sold (since I don't know).

--Darin

Wow, you're right. I completely didn't notice! :eek:

How devastating is it to the HD-DVD group if HD-DVD does not have the higher sales for the week of the June 26th Releases?

Or is it not devastating at all?

~JoshIt would not be devastating or surprising. Most of the titles are catalog and catalog titles just don't sell well on either format. I think there are good reasons for this, and the studios need to start thinking about it and not just pretending that this is back in the days of VHS or DVD.

Different game.With the disparity of releases on the 26th combined with the additional 50,000 HD DVD players in people's homes, I think it would be really bad if HD DVD does not improve its position for the week.

When is the effect of those father's day presents supposed to kick in if not next week? Wasn't the PS3 effect seen a week or two after Christmas?

With the disparity of releases on the 26th combined with the additional 50,000 HD DVD players in people's homes, I think it would be really bad if HD DVD does not improve its position for the week.

When is the effect of those father's day presents supposed to kick in if not next week? Wasn't the PS3 effect seen a week or two after Christmas?

But look at the fact that these are catalog titles. Look at their current Amazon ranks. Lebowski is doing ok (537 right now) but Meet Joe Black for example isn't (3220) nor is Being John Malkovich (3638). [MJB is a great film and it is on HDNet Movies this month, looks very good. But not selling on HD DVD. Malkovich is also terrific.] These Universal releases also do not fit the Serenity/Batman Begins demographic either.

The Videoscan numbers show a very cold response to random catalog titles. Many of these Universal releases are getting mediocre reviews for PQ as well. A poster cruelly said "shovelware".

What I am saying is that, no, I do not expect hugely improved HD DVD numbers for the week of 6/26 and I don't think it can be held against HD DVD.

What I am saying is that, no, I do not expect hugely improved HD DVD numbers for the week of 6/26 and I don't think it can be held against HD DVD.

If your quality catalog titles don't sell and you do not have recent hits/blockbusters - what exactly is HD-DVD, and especially Universal, going to sell?

If your quality catalog titles don't sell and you do not have recent hits/blockbusters - what exactly is HD-DVD, and especially Universal, going to sell?

It's a problem, isn't it? I expect Universal to be downright disappointed with the results of their HD DVD catalog blitz when someone finally looks at the numbers.

Of course, Fox has the same problem to a degree. They had a lot of Blu-ray catalog titles back in February and they didn't sell either.

The problem IMHO is that current early adopters have large existing collections and are not motivated to replace things, especially when the disks are less than perfect and the prices high. As adoption expands, quality improves and prices drop, this will change.

Well said, rlsmith. I think the studios have vastly overestimated how many people will replace their DVD collections with HD versions. I'm now at 40+ BD movies, and my first "re-buy" is the remastered Fifth Element coming next month. And that is only because I totally love that movie.

Didn't some execs expect HD to continue the revenue growth that DVD has given them over the last few years? Not so, it will gradually replace, not keep increasing at the pace it has been doing. Obviously, the studios will blame piracy... Sigh!

i dont think we should talk anymore about sales. but more about rentals.

it seems to me, that people are not buying catalog titles, but i think they rent them.

and lets face it. if i had the chance i would do the same. i have watched 7 years in tibet and bourne of july about 4 years ago. i like to see it again in high defenition format. but to replace my dvds for it. i find it to expensive. i rather rent it now once. and they buy it later again for 10 bucks or something.

so i like to know now is what are the actually rental attachments to the players bought.
because sales show around 60/40 in favor for bluray. but rental of blockbuster shows 70/30.

so maybe we should focus more on rentals instead of sales?

nescio,

You are right. However, those arent the assumptions I was talking about. Rankings, as you point out are ordinal data, and not interval data. Hence, there is no inherent arithmetic relationship between individual intervals - the size of the change from 1 rank to the next can vary. However, as you know, with interval data, the size from 1 number to the next is always the same.

Yes, you need to make assumptions for inferences - but with interval data such as raw sales numbers, you dont need to make assumptions about your scale to make magnitude assessments, as you must with ordinal data.

In the case of sales data of discs, I cant imagine anything close to even intervals between ranks, hence I dont buy the conclusion that percentage changes in rankings are meaningful.

While I agree that there is no fixed relationship, there is a statistical relationship: once you know (ie you assume in our case) the underlying distribution, the relationship between intervals is simply a random variable so you can draw statistical inferences on that relationship based on observed rankings.

But we do perfectly agree (I believe) that these are very weak inferences so you can't put much confidence in them. (Especially since the underlying distribution probably varies considerably from week to week, depending on new releases and stuff.)

As to the inferences here, I think distinguishing BB from Father's day stuff is near impossible, especially since Amazon rankings are not based on instantaneous sales but on some weighted past sales, so any effect only shows up over time and will show up differently for things that sold differently in the past.
(As long as we don't know the Amazon formula, it may well be that what is showing up is that the massive orders at release time -- now approximately 2 months ago -- are dropping from the data.)

Anyone ever wondered whether the BB announcement may actually hurt BD software sales in the short term? If I'm a Blockbuster B&M customer and I know that I'll be able to rent all these titles in a mere few weeks, then my incentives to buy these titles go down!

(Obviously, the overall effect is positive since it gives more confidence that your software and hardware buys won't be worthless in 2 years + it gives incentives for hardware buys for these B&M customers.)

So I don't think there is a sure way to figure the BB effect from software sales. You have to look at hardware sales.

Well said, rlsmith. I think the studios have vastly overestimated how many people will replace their DVD collections with HD versions. I'm now at 40+ BD movies, and my first "re-buy" is the remastered Fifth Element coming next month. And that is only because I totally love that movie.

I couldn't agree more. I just re-buy catalog titles that show a clear advantage over their DVD versions. "The Searchers", for example, is just stunning. But apparently it takes a lot of time and effort (= money) to get to this level of quality for older movies, so it is only being done for "prestige" pictures ("Casablanca" is another good example). And as long as even those prestige catalog titles don't sell, the studios will surely not be motivated to give more older pictures the premium treatment.

As to the inferences here, I think distinguishing BB from Father's day stuff is near impossible, especially since Amazon rankings are not based on instantaneous sales but on some weighted past sales, so any effect only shows up over time and will show up differently for things that sold differently in the past.
(As long as we don't know the Amazon formula, it may well be that what is showing up is that the massive orders at release time -- now approximately 2 months ago -- are dropping from the data.)I probably haven't made it clear, but I am basing some of my stuff on watching these stock numbers and rankings for quite a while to see what kinds of sales are generally required to get to different levels within the disc section on Amazon. And how old sales affect things compared to more recent sales. The evidence I have seen is that sales from more than a few days ago generally start having little affect on the rankings. Examples that help show this are when the organized buy days happen and then the drops afterward are observed. Also, Superman Returns on Blu-ray gave some good indications for a while because every time it went out of stock it would change so that people couldn't even order it. So, we knew that sales went to zero. And the ranking would start to plummet. I don't think that sales from even a week ago have much effect, let alone a couple of months ago. Other than things like selling 200 a week ago might keep a title above another one that sells a few copies a day for a while. But from my observations I would be surprised if sales from a week ago even have a 25% weighting on the rankings.

--Darin

it seems to me, that people are not buying catalog titles, but i think they rent them.
...
so maybe we should focus more on rentals instead of sales?I think we should consider how rentals affect sales. Even if rentals didn't bring any income to studios, they can have a big impact on sales. As Nescio mentioned, having rentals available can make sales go down in the short run. But in the long run I think they are important. And with the subject of catalog titles not selling well coming up again, I'm thinking that this all ties together.

Here is my theory with some assumptions layed out (some repeats of what others have said). There are many people who will buy day-and-date releases, but very few catalog titles. But, if they know what is going on they won't buy a player unless they can rent catalog titles (and some day-and-dates that they don't care enough about to buy). So, in order for the studios to sell lots of their day-and-date titles to this group, they need to release catalog titles and have them available for rent.

I'm thinking that the Blockbuster announcement could end up being important after the point that people go in there and see the titles, along with any advertising that targets them as far as letting them know about the Blu-ray rentals being available. For many people who buy a player based on that they could start out renting for a while and it may take a while for the disc sales to follow from them. But they should follow at some point, even if not with the same attach rate as for people who's main reason for getting in wasn't because rentals were available at their local store.

--Darin

The main thing to look for now is if HD DVD sales ranking are going to bounce back. If they do, then in my opinion what we saw was a regular correction (Here I am referring to the top 25 titles), OTOH, if we see a downward spiral - then that could spell trouble.

..the additional 50,000 HD DVD players in people's homes ...

As I've shown above it is not sufficient.

Anyone ever wondered whether the BB announcement may actually hurt BD software sales in the short term? If I'm a Blockbuster B&M customer and I know that I'll be able to rent all these titles in a mere few weeks, then my incentives to buy these titles go down!That might happen with j6p, but Blu-ray fanboys are gonna run out to buy MORE movies to celebrate.

How devastating is it to the HD-DVD group if HD-DVD does not have the higher sales for the week of the June 26th Releases?

Or is it not devastating at all?

~Josh It won't matter a lick to any decision makers.

Toshiba Universal Microsoft and any studio or retailer is really looking toward the 4th quarter to see any trends.

The volumes involved to date are just to small to base any decisions off.

Until the retailers (and studios) seriously price HD DVD and Blu-ray at retail brick and mortar outlets closer to DVD pricing and not charge outrageous premiums everybody knows the sales volumes will be small.

No one has any real incentive until the 4th quarter to drop the movie title street price until later in the year when the player installed base numbers are much larger.

Right now its still early adopter pricing, and people know that is not the true sales volume potential. But retail pricing is basically a one way street and nobody wants to drop the floor until the installed bases are large enough to support it.

Its assumed that HD disc sales volumes will increase when the prices drop, but its too early for that event to occur at the B&M locations.

Both Blu-ray ( with increased PS3 4th quarter sales & cheaper standalones) and HD DVD (with an ever growing installed player base with cheaper players ) will hit that mark after Black Friday.

Nothing is really serious until the 4th quarter sales period. Everything happening now is just preparation for that serious time of battle.

HD DVD catalog release strategy is partially based on the belief that a ever expanding installed base with eventually buy more catalog releases.

Plus virtually no retailers are serious about selling HD DVDE or Blu-ray now.

We will know they are serious when pricing drops to within a $5 premium over DVD and when hundreds or titles are routinely available at major retail locations.

Until then , everything is a kabuki dance.

I'm actually a Blu-ray guy (they're simply closer to the finish line), so I say this a little begrudgingly - But it's worth noting that it looks like PE's sales might have stabilized on Amazon's ranks, at least for now. HD-DVD is currently back up at 8, and BD at 14. With respect to the BB announcement, on 6/18 they started the day at 4 and 12, respectively. Eh...The way I see it, the data's unclear. Though I know some of ya'll disagree. Whatever - we only have to wait till Friday, then we find out for sure if the BB announcement had an immediate software sales impact.

HD DVD catalog release strategy is partially based on the belief that a ever expanding installed base with eventually buy more catalog releases.

We know that strategy is a bust. It's good enough to be doomed to perpetually less than half the sales of it's rival format that way...


Plus virtually no retailers are serious about selling HD DVDE or Blu-ray now.

We will know they are serious when pricing drops to within a $5 premium over DVD and when hundreds or titles are routinely available at major retail locations.


Eh? Any ideas what the percentage markup is and if it differs from DVD? For most catalog releases, the mastering has already been done, at least for Day & Date and it seems the only additional costs might be for the High Def press itself (and maybe the infrastructure required to set it up)...

It won't matter a lick to any decision makers.

Toshiba Universal Microsoft and any studio or retailer is really looking toward the 4th quarter to see any trends.

The volumes involved to date are just to small to base any decisions off.

Until the retailers (and studios) seriously price HD DVD and Blu-ray at retail brick and mortar outlets closer to DVD pricing and not charge outrageous premiums everybody knows the sales volumes will be small.

No one has any real incentive until the 4th quarter to drop the movie title street price until later in the year when the player installed base numbers are much larger.

Right now its still early adopter pricing, and people know that is not the true sales volume potential. But retail pricing is basically a one way street and nobody wants to drop the floor until the installed bases are large enough to support it.

Its assumed that HD disc sales volumes will increase when the prices drop, but its too early for that event to occur at the B&M locations.

Both Blu-ray ( with increased PS3 4th quarter sales & cheaper standalones) and HD DVD (with an ever growing installed player base with cheaper players ) will hit that mark after Black Friday.

Nothing is really serious until the 4th quarter sales period. Everything happening now is just preparation for that serious time of battle.

I also agree that the 4th quarter will be the key and the Universal CEO has mentioned several times that they are expecting a huge 4th quarter. I am just not sure what is going to be the driving force for HD DVD on the content side. Blu-Ray will most likely have the following exclusive titles this coming 4th quarter:
- Spiderman 1-3
- POTC3
- Fantastic 4 #2
- The Simpsons Movie
- Ratatouille
- Live Free or Die Hard

Obviously there will be more catalog and day and date releases as well, and Warner may also release some of the titles they have been withholding on Blu-Ray including:
- Batman Begins
- The Matrix Trilogy
- V for Vendetta

As for player prices, I suspect that HD DVD will still have the advantage, but that we will see much more competitive prices from Blu-Ray as well (especially if Funai players come to places like Wal-Mart and Target).

That said, I do think public perception leading up to the 4th quarter is more important than you think. If Blu-Ray has a commanding lead going into the 4th quarter, people may not purchase HD DVD players no matter what the price if it looks like Blu-Ray is going to win, and when they look at the studios supporting Blu-Ray and the exclusive content...

The public as a whole knows nothing about HD DVD/BD. MOst don't know much of anything about HD in general. It will be a long time before that changes. Of course the uninformed sales people don't help either.

HD DVD catalog release strategy is partially based on the belief that a ever expanding installed base with eventually buy more catalog releases.

Plus virtually no retailers are serious about selling HD DVDE or Blu-ray now.

We will know they are serious when pricing drops to within a $5 premium over DVD and when hundreds or titles are routinely available at major retail locations.

Until then , everything is a kabuki dance.

Kosty:

No one is going to listen to you. They are too into "chest beating" and prognostication of what the future will be and what needs to happen and blah, blah, blah.

There are macro thinker and there are micro thinkers. The Mac thinkers see that HD DVD/BD is going to be a very slow transition to the marketplace (even if there was only one format to begin with) because of it's evolutionary nature.

The Mic thinkers see numbers that favor BD and scream "BD is winning the war."

How about some facts/questions?

1. QUESTION - what has really changed from December 06 to June 07? (BD was in the lead then, they still are - but has the lead itself changed?

2. FACT - HD DVD/BD represent .03% of total video disc revenue

3 FACT - 10 million Xbox 360's but only 155,000 AO's sold (1.5%)

4. ASSUMED FACT - "well look at the success of DVD." But DVD was a revolutionary technology - sells/sold itself.

If you look at the big picture you begin to understand that all the hopes for a new profitable, widely accepted product are not there.

Just imagine if it was BD and only BD from the beginning - we would still be looking at $700 and $1000 priced players - and MPEG2 transfers.

^^ Other than the MicMac and those of us blessed enough to be abe to think so eloquently at such a stratospheric level while the rest of us mortals wallow in self-pity and yearn for such enlightenment, the fact is that the conflict here is because too many people fail to see the humor and focus on the wrong aspects of the stupid war.

Oh yes, that and the project hydra people, as well as the project anti-hydra and project anti-anti-hydra and project anti-anti-anti-hydra as well as people with vested interest in seeing one side win.

Whether the pot is blacker than the kettle is immaterial, nowadays, we don't use coal, and kettles tend to be electric, so the problem is not soot blackening all the muck around here, it's the calcium deposits that arise because people don't use proper water filters.

But I digress...

^^ Other than the MicMac and those of us blessed enough to be abe to think so eloquently at such a stratospheric level while the rest of us mortals wallow in self-pity and yearn for such enlightenment, the fact is that the conflict here is because too many people fail to see the humor and focus on the wrong aspects of the stupid war.

Oh yes, that and the project hydra people, as well as the project anti-hydra and project anti-anti-hydra and project anti-anti-anti-hydra as well as people with vested interest in seeing one side win.

Whether the pot is blacker than the kettle is immaterial, nowadays, we don't use coal, and kettles tend to be electric, so the problem is not soot blackening all the muck around here, it's the calcium deposits that arise because people don't use proper water filters.

But I digress...

RED - THAT is the understatement of the year!

These on-going threads are nothing more than people offerring their opinions - trying to sway others to their mindset - then defend that mindset to the death if necessary.

Do you know what people enjoy? Confrontation - with zero chance of bodily harm

^ That's why this thread about analysis and discussion of nielsen sales data is useful. It lets people deal with how many movies are bought, instead of hyperbole and assumptions. Lets not forget that until recently, the assumption that PS3s are not used as blu-ray players is a widely held premise here.

June 26th should have a good sales data to look at. Although amazon sales marches to different drums as nielsen data (which includes amazon), there should be some movement there. Some of those universal catalogs are half decent. There is no exclusive blu title this week. Big Lebowski is the onlly one that showed up. (interesting movie btw).

Amazon should have moved by now regardless of what goes on at nielsen.

Originally Posted by Kosty
HD DVD catalog release strategy is partially based on the belief that a ever expanding installed base with eventually buy more catalog releases.
We know that strategy is a bust. It's good enough to be doomed to
perpetually less than half the sales of it's rival format that way...Once again, you are too quick to declare failure, and are not taking a long term view.

The HD DVD catalog strategy is a long term one, with its first real test coming in the fourth quarter after the HD DVD player installed base increases. As additional player sales create a larger installed base, those catalog titles look new to those new owners. Besides the fact that only a tiny fraction of those catalog releases are being sold at retail locations, and their price points have been higher than optimum for sales. HD DVD probably has a manufacturing cost advantage which may help sustain the continued release of catalog releases as the studio breakeven point is low enough to make even low volume releases profitable.

And there is a lot more catalog releases than day and date releases available.

One of the major incentives for the studios in the HD fight is catalog sales. Day and date is basically a substitution for DVD sales. The real money is the found money or re-release of the catalog titles in the next format.

That fight will not really begin seriously until player sales reach mass market volumes. That will be this fall.

Originally Posted by Kosty
Plus virtually no retailers are serious about selling HD DVDE or Blu-ray now
We will know they are serious when pricing drops to within a $5 premium over DVD and when hundreds or titles are routinely available at major retail locations..Eh? Any ideas what the percentage markup is and if it differs from DVD? For most catalog releases, the mastering has already been done, at least for Day & Date and it seems the only additional costs might be for the High Def press itself (and maybe the infrastructure required to set it up)... Huh, right back at you.
I'll type slowly ...... When RETAILERS display more titles and drop prices closer to DVD levels, we will know they are serious about selling HD movies. Studios may drop their MSRP., but the production cost has little to do with the retail B&M price. That is partially evidenced by the lower online prices for most HD titles. Wal-Mart DVD pricing shows a lot of what the normal margin on DVD titles are.

The bottom line is that retailers can drop prices and sell more, but they are still in early adopter pricing now, and won't transition to a volume strategy until the HD player installed base is larger.

Big Lebrowski & Black Snake Moan moved to the #2xx position.

Before it was

#1 PE rank #1x
#2 Matrix rank #3xx

Not much change yet in the relative sales positions at amazon. None of the other 6/26/07 releases made Hd-dvd's top ten.

The HD DVD catalog strategy is a long term one, with its first real test coming in the fourth quarter after the HD DVD player installed base increases. As additional player sales create a larger installed base, those catalog titles look new to those new owners. Besides the fact that only a tiny fraction of those catalog releases are being sold at retail locations, and their price points have been higher than optimum for sales.

How does the catalog title theory (which todays new releases will be considered tomorrow) not benefit Blu-ray the same as it does HD DVD this Fall though? I'm just not seeing what aspect of this is unique to HD DVD.

And there is a lot more catalog releases than day and date releases available.


How is HDDVD strategy different from BD? For every Universal catalog title, there are titles from Sony, Fox, Buena Vista, and/or Disney.


One of the major incentives for the studios in the HD fight is catalog sales. Day and date is basically a substitution for DVD sales. The real money is the found money or re-release of the catalog titles in the next format.


Too bad the sales numbers don't bear that out. Maybe HDDVD catalog sales will pass day & date by the time it ceases production? :p


That fight will not really begin seriously until player sales reach mass market volumes. That will be this fall.


Whatever makes you sleep better at night. :) Mass market volumes will simply geometrically (if not exponentially) increase the trends we've already seen. I'm all for it. :D

How does the catalog title theory (which todays new releases will be considered tomorrow) not benefit Blu-ray the same as it does HD DVD this Fall though? I'm just not seeing what aspect of this is unique to HD DVD.

Yeah, I never quite *got* the catalog argument either. I mean, I could maybe see it being used, say, last summer/fall, when HD-DVD legitimately had a lot more catalog titles out there. But they don't anymore. As of right now, Blu-Ray has more overall titles out there (though it's very close), from Robert Sawyer's tabulation thread: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=741582&page=1. I also did a rough estimate from Grubert's release thread, and it's similar - The #s are close, but Blu-Ray has a slight lead. And with more studio support, it's not like this is changing - if anything, Blu-ray would increase its lead in overall titles released by Q4. In order to push sales past Blu-ray based on a greater catalog base, you would expect HD-DVD to have, you know, a greater catalog base.

Yeah, I never quite *got* the catalog argument either. I mean, I could maybe see it being used, say, last summer/fall, when HD-DVD legitimately had a lot more catalog titles out there. But they don't anymore. As of right now, Blu-Ray has more overall titles out there (though it's very close), from Robert Sawyer's tabulation thread: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=741582&page=1. I also did a rough estimate from Grubert's release thread, and it's similar - The #s are close, but Blu-Ray has a slight lead. And with more studio support, it's not like this is changing - if anything, Blu-ray would increase its lead in overall titles released by Q4. In order to push sales past Blu-ray based on a greater catalog base, you would expect HD-DVD to have, you know, a greater catalog base.

Doesn't this have to do with the all the PS3 owners out there who have little interest in catalog titles? More standalone sales equals more sales of catalog titles.

Doesn't this have to do with the all the PS3 owners out there who have little interest in catalog titles? More standalone sales equals more sales of catalog titles.

I suspect it is a matter of degree and not absolutes. I have studied the Videoscan numbers in detail fairly carefully, and there is a slight bias on HD DVD towards classic catalog titles, but only very slight. I do attribute this to the PS3 influence.

In general, catalog titles are not doing well on HD DVD either. There is a big batch of Universal catalogers coming out tomorrow 6/26, and only one (Lebowsky) is making any waves at Amazon as of today.

I predict that Universal's catalog blitz will be a failure both in terms of sales and bringing about adoption of HD DVD.

Remember, this is not the age of VHS or DVD. Almost all early adopters of nextgen already have large video collections, and are not being motivated to buy catalog titles unless something is really special.

I think that adoption really has to broaden out to include new folks who don't have huge collections, young people who have not been doing this for 10-20 years, and then we will see some action on the catalogers. The studios should do the following:
-- make the transfers absolutely perfect
-- select the special features carefully
-- price them right
-- time them correctly

Many catalog DVD's have done very well under these conditions.

Our problem is a chicken-and-egg: we can't close the format war until people start adopting one of the formats significantly over the other, and we can't get adoption without a lot of interesting content, and the studios won't release interesting content until adoption increases. So we are a bit stuck right now.

Here is a question: if you were a studio (like Sony or Universal) trying to win the format war, what titles would you release (from your catalog) and how would you market them?

I suspect it is a matter of degree and not absolutes. I have studied the Videoscan numbers in detail fairly carefully, and there is a slight bias on HD DVD towards classic catalog titles, but only very slight. I do attribute this to the PS3 influence.

In general, catalog titles are not doing well on HD DVD either. There is a big batch of Universal catalogers coming out tomorrow 6/26, and only one (Lebowsky) is making any waves at Amazon as of today.

I predict that Universal's catalog blitz will be a failure both in terms of sales and bringing about adoption of HD DVD.

Remember, this is not the age of VHS or DVD. Almost all early adopters of nextgen already have large video collections, and are not being motivated to buy catalog titles unless something is really special.

I think that adoption really has to broaden out to include new folks who don't have huge collections, young people who have not been doing this for 10-20 years, and then we will see some action on the catalogers. The studios should do the following:
-- make the transfers absolutely perfect
-- select the special features carefully
-- price them right
-- time them correctly

Many catalog DVD's have done very well under these conditions.

Our problem is a chicken-and-egg: we can't close the format war until people start adopting one of the formats significantly over the other, and we can't get adoption without a lot of interesting content, and the studios won't release interesting content until adoption increases. So we are a bit stuck right now.


You made a lot of good points and I agree with all of them. I think that catalog titles will do little to decide this war, and will continue to sell poorly. I expect them to do even worse percentage-wise as more "non-early adopter" consumers enter the market.

Remember, this is not the age of VHS or DVD. Almost all early adopters of nextgen already have large video collections, and are not being motivated to buy catalog titles unless something is really special.

I think that adoption really has to broaden out to include new folks who don't have huge collections, young people who have not been doing this for 10-20 years, and then we will see some action on the catalogers. The studios should do the following:
-- make the transfers absolutely perfect
-- select the special features carefully
-- price them right
-- time them correctly

Many catalog DVD's have done very well under these conditions.

Catalog DVDs have done well due to people buying them for the first time in a much improved format. Special features are not going to matter much to people who already own the DVD. Young people who don't have big collections? Those are the people who can least afford to spend money on discs. The players aren't cheap (yet), and then you have the expense of a receiver, speakers, and, oh yeah, a big enough tv for the high def to make a difference. The 27" tv that I've seen in a lot of people's homes has been just fine for DVD.

The bottom line is that retailers can drop prices and sell more, but they are still in early adopter pricing now, and won't transition to a volume strategy until the HD player installed base is larger.

I was at BB yesterday and they had Breach for HD-DVD with a $24.99 price. I took it to the register and it rang at $29.99 so they sold it to me at the sticker price. I know I could have gotten it for less at Amazon with Prime and 10% off but sometimes you just feel like buying a movie on the spot. In this case the five bucks made a difference and I bought it at a B&M store. I'm sure I'd buy more often at these stores if their prices at least matched Amazon's (the hell with paying taxes when I want to watch Big Lebowsky's the Dude in HD right now).

Initial post updated.

Hilarious how the third post on the thread (the first after the two with Grubert's updated sales info) is a permanent reminder of HD-DVD's 2nd place finished behind Blu-ray: "these numbers are pretty awful," indeed! :rolleyes:

Hilarious how the third post on the thread (the first after the two with Grubert's updated sales info) is a permanent reminder of HD-DVD's 2nd place finished behind Blu-ray: "these numbers are pretty awful," indeed! :rolleyes:
Agreed!!! It's not as bad as these analysis indicate. 2nd place isn't so bad. Heck it's tons better than 3rd!!! If HD DVD had finished 3rd out of field of 2 HDMs, then that would be a real disaster. Right now, the master plan is unfolding perfectly, the HD-A2 going down to 225 and then briefly to 199 is letting the HD DVD PG realize that with $50 players, HD DVD will probably carry the day. BD players would have trouble goign below $55 even with no margin, so the target is spelled out. There is no turning back now.

More players will translate to more red disk sales and the tyranny of nielsen statistics will eventually be overturned, and BD will have a chance to savor months of placing 3rd in a 2 man race.

Depending on your perspective, right now theHDM market is
1st place - a game machine
2nd place - Tosh players
3rd place - all CE BD players

Depending on your perspective, right now theHDM market is
1st place - a game machine
2nd place - Tosh players
3rd place - all CE BD players

I think it is actually this, based on the data we have available about announced sell-through numbers.

1st place - a game machine
2nd place - an add-on for a game machine
3rd place - Tosh players
4th place - all CE BD players

I think it is actually this, based on the data we have available about announced sell-through numbers.

1st place - a game machine
2nd place - an add-on for a game machine
3rd place - Tosh players
4th place - all CE BD players

Don't forget that there far more #1 than all the others combined.

Also I think Toshiba manufactured the 360 add-on, so you can probably just call that a Tosh player as well. ;)

I'd swap #1's "game machine" for "superior multimedia device." After all, it's selling the PS3 owners that use it for BD as well short to imply they bought this device for games alone, when that obviously is not the case.

Now Blu-ray is getting into the '5 movies for free' promotion that Toshiba's been using for a while.


Eligible Blu-ray Players
Sony BDP-S1
Sony BDP-S300
Sony PS3
Panasonic DMP-BD10K
Panasonic DMP-BD10KA
Philips BDP9000/37
Pioneer BDP-94HD
Samsung BD-P1000
Samsung BD-P1200

Movie Choices (you can only pick ONE movie per category)
Category 1
- The Guardian
- Pearl Harbor
- Invincible
- Chicken Little

Category 2
- Corpse bride
- Phantom of the opera
- Blazing Saddles

Category 3
- Stealth
- Resident Evil 2
- Underworld Evolution
- Stir of Echoes

Category 4
- The Italian Job
- Black Rain
- Babel
- Devil's Rejects

Category 5
- Kiss of the Dragon
- Omen 666
- The Transporter 2
- Species
- Hart's War
- The Last Waltz

You have to include the ORIGINAL UPC on the Blu-ray player package along with a receipt (can be photocopied) from the Blu-ray player purchase dated between 7/1/07 and 9/30/07 with the purchase price circled. Limit one redemption per household, group submissions are void. Only good for the US and it's territories.

Source: http://www.bluraysavings.com/ (which is down right now).

So if you don't buy a PS3 (or any BD player) until AFTER July 1st you get free movies; buy either one day before and you get dick. That's when the new 'Get 5 BD Movies' promotion kicks in and bites early adopters in the rear. Plus if you purchase a PS3 from a Sony Style store from 6/17 to 7/8 you get two free games and a $50 Gift Card. Here's the Fat Wallet posting: http://www.**************/t/18/743173/. So basically:

$599 (PS3)
$59 (free)
$59 (free)
+ $50 (free)
+ $100 (five BD movies at $20 a pop)
--------------
$599 + taxes (save $268).

Still too expensive for my blood, but for people on the fence about getting a PS3 that have access to a Sony Style store this might just be the ticket! Could these free discs count as part of the stats in favor of Blu-ray or are they out of the count like the free HD-DVD's when buying a Toshiba player?

Dad1153, your information is wrong. From the same thread you linked to:

Just called the Kenwood store in Cincinnati. They said that you have to buy a PS3, a controller, and two games, and then you get a $50 gift card. My husband just called the Atlanta store and they said the same thing. Hopefully it will save someone the trip. The deal is definitely not as good as originally posted.

The five free BD's is obviously still a good deal though for those that jump into the format next month.

You gotta hand it to Sony...They trumped Toshiba yet again by offering an even MORE pathetic list of movies to choose from.

Some of those categories contain stuff I wouldn't even want for free (#1, #3, #5.)

How does the catalog title theory (which todays new releases will be considered tomorrow) not benefit Blu-ray the same as it does HD DVD this Fall though? I'm just not seeing what aspect of this is unique to HD DVD. The strategy differs as HD DVD is more aggressively moving to lower price points, and mass consumer adoption and a larger installed base of players that will available when the decision is reached by retailers to lower the price premium.

HD DVD will have an advantage if it continues to sell more stand alone players and if the HD DVD players sell at the lower prices that will drive more volume.

Blu-ray may be handicapped by a strategy to have higher standalone prices through the fourth quarter.

The strategy differs as HD DVD is more aggressively moving to lower price points, and mass consumer adoption and a larger installed base of players that will available when the decision is reached by retailers to lower the price premium.

HD DVD will have an advantage if it continues to sell more stand alone players and if the HD DVD players sell at the lower prices that will drive more volume.

Blu-ray may be handicapped by a strategy to have higher standalone prices through the fourth quarter.

What does this post have to do with the catalog titles that we were discussing? Obviously lower player prices is better than higher player prices... but what you were saying is that HD DVD is gaining some sort of catalog advantage on Blu-ray, and we (me and others) were simply pointing out that this isn't the case.

The strategy differs as HD DVD is more aggressively moving to lower price points, and mass consumer adoption and a larger installed base of players that will available when the decision is reached by retailers to lower the price premium.

HD DVD will have an advantage if it continues to sell more stand alone players and if the HD DVD players sell at the lower prices that will drive more volume.

Blu-ray may be handicapped by a strategy to have higher standalone prices through the fourth quarter.

Blu-ray standalone prices have dropped 50% in the last couple of months. There is no reason to believe they will not continue to drop.

How is HDDVD strategy different from BD? For every Universal catalog title, there are titles from Sony, Fox, Buena Vista, and/or Disney.

Too bad the sales numbers don't bear that out. Maybe HDDVD catalog sales will pass day & date by the time it ceases production? :p

Whatever makes you sleep better at night. :) Mass market volumes will simply geometrically (if not exponentially) increase the trends we've already seen. I'm all for it. :D Mass market volumes are a completely new ball game and the tiny first and second quarter volumes based in the PS3 launch will be eventually taken by stand alone players on both sides by the fourth quarter of this year.

Catalog sales volumes have been disappointing to date, but they may ( and I believe) more significant to the studios as the installed basee of HD players grow and more catalog titles are available at retail at reducd prices.

4th quarter sales volumes at dramatically higher than the rest of the year.

The difference is that HD DVD is on track to have dramatically more standalone players in the installed base by the 4th quarter and will have by all accounts several players selling for much less than the Blu-ray players at that time. If retailers stock and drop the prices of HD DVD (and Blu-ray) movie titles later this year, the size of the installed base is a significant factor.

As player prices drop, lower prices under #299 do dramatically more volume the lower the price is. $199, $149 and $99 price points can sell x10 the units of $399 price points. That HD DVD advantage of lower prices will be dramatic in teh high volume 4th quarter which HD DVD essentially missed last year because of the late launch of the HD A2 and the HD XA2.

Everything is being aligned for the 4th quarter to see if the HD titles can break into mass market volumes.

That will be the prime time fight this year. So far we've been watching overnight and early morning programming braodcast wars. The main battle is later this year.

As long as HD DVD hangs on, it is preparing for the fourth quarter fight.

Yeah, I never quite *got* the catalog argument either. I mean, I could maybe see it being used, say, last summer/fall, when HD-DVD legitimately had a lot more catalog titles out there. But they don't anymore. As of right now, Blu-Ray has more overall titles out there (though it's very close), from Robert Sawyer's tabulation thread: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=741582&page=1. I also did a rough estimate from Grubert's release thread, and it's similar - The #s are close, but Blu-Ray has a slight lead. And with more studio support, it's not like this is changing - if anything, Blu-ray would increase its lead in overall titles released by Q4. In order to push sales past Blu-ray based on a greater catalog base, you would expect HD-DVD to have, you know, a greater catalog base. The difference is not in the number of titles released, it is in the strategy of trying to move more aggressively to lower player prices and a greater installed base of standalone dedicated players.

HD DVD is lowering player prices faster to sell more players and to get to consumer freindly price points.

Then the greater number ( true for each format ) of catalog releases will sell more per copy and eventually the greater number of catalog titles available will total a volume that makes more and more money.

Any day and date new release will sell vastly more but the much larger number of catalog titles will continue to over time sell more and more to the expanding base of new owners.

The released list of titles is new to all new owners.

Both formats want catalog titles to work, as new day and date releases may just be a substitute for DVD sales, while catalog sales are double sales and found money.

Blu-ray will benefit too, but HD DVD is hoping the increased size of teh installed base will sell more catalog titles as the player base expands. To date, that has not been a significant factor, but may be later in the year as movie titles drop in price and become more available and as player volumes increase.

I suspect it is a matter of degree and not absolutes. I have studied the Videoscan numbers in detail fairly carefully, and there is a slight bias on HD DVD towards classic catalog titles, but only very slight. I do attribute this to the PS3 influence.

In general, catalog titles are not doing well on HD DVD either. There is a big batch of Universal catalogers coming out tomorrow 6/26, and only one (Lebowsky) is making any waves at Amazon as of today.

I predict that Universal's catalog blitz will be a failure both in terms of sales and bringing about adoption of HD DVD.

Remember, this is not the age of VHS or DVD. Almost all early adopters of nextgen already have large video collections, and are not being motivated to buy catalog titles unless something is really special.

I think that adoption really has to broaden out to include new folks who don't have huge collections, young people who have not been doing this for 10-20 years, and then we will see some action on the catalogers. The studios should do the following:
-- make the transfers absolutely perfect
-- select the special features carefully
-- price them right
-- time them correctly

Many catalog DVD's have done very well under these conditions.

Our problem is a chicken-and-egg: we can't close the format war until people start adopting one of the formats significantly over the other, and we can't get adoption without a lot of interesting content, and the studios won't release interesting content until adoption increases. So we are a bit stuck right now.

Here is a question: if you were a studio (like Sony or Universal) trying to win the format war, what titles would you release (from your catalog) and how would you market them? You miss the point that catalog sales may explode in volume when player sales explode at lower price points.

There is just a lot more catalog titles available than current releases.

They will always be less than a hot release, but if it does not cost much to release them, smaller profits on a multitude of titles will eventually add up.

IF HD DVD production costs are less than Blu-ray , that might encourage the continued release of those lower sale volume catalog and niche titles.

Its a long term straegy, not well seen by short term sales figures.

Mass market volumes are a completely new ball game and the tiny first and second quarter volumes based in the PS3 launch will be eventually taken by stand alone players on both sides by the fourth quarter of this year.

Catalog sales volumes have been disappointing to date, but they may ( and I believe) more significant to the studios as the installed basee of HD players grow and more catalog titles are available at retail at reducd prices.

4th quarter sales volumes at dramatically higher than the rest of the year.

The difference is that HD DVD is on track to have dramatically more standalone players in the installed base by the 4th quarter and will have by all accounts several players selling for much less than the Blu-ray players at that time. If retailers stock and drop the prices of HD DVD (and Blu-ray) movie titles later this year, the size of the installed base is a significant factor.

As player prices drop, lower prices under #299 do dramatically more volume the lower the price is. $199, $149 and $99 price points can sell x10 the units of $399 price points. That HD DVD advantage of lower prices will be dramatic in teh high volume 4th quarter which HD DVD essentially missed last year because of the late launch of the HD A2 and the HD XA2.

Everything is being aligned for the 4th quarter to see if the HD titles can break into mass market volumes.

That will be the prime time fight this year. So far we've been watching overnight and early morning programming braodcast wars. The main battle is later this year.

As long as HD DVD hangs on, it is preparing for the fourth quarter fight.

Right. We keep hearing this, yet sales of standalone players are almost equal. HD DVD sold 100K standalone players in 12 months, and Blu-Ray sold the same amount in 12 months. HD DVD recently lowered player prices and offered a promotion, and Blu-Ray players have recently lowered in price as well. If you look at MSRP prices, which is what most B&M stores typically sell at, there is very little difference in standalone player prices. The PS3 will continue to be the difference maker in this format war along with exclusive content. I just don't see this changing. We have yet to see any effect on the promotions HD DVD recently had on their players with regards to movie sales.

Catalog releases will not matter for some time and may not matter nearly as much in this format war when compared to the switch from VHS to DVD.

The fact that I can buy a DVD version (if I don't already own it) of a movie for $4.99-$10 versus having to pay almost $20 for the same movie and also be able to watch it upscaled really puts a damper on catalog sales in my opinion. I really do not see the need to replace (double dip) for the majority of my catalog titles, and I doubt the general public will either.

In this respect I think Blu-Ray clearly has the upper-hand with access to many more day and date releases and blockbuster titles. I guess we will have to wait and see for the 4th quarter, but we also know that cheaper Blu-Ray players are on the horizon (Funai, possible Chinese players), and I just do not see a very large pricing advantage for HD DVD on players..

What does this post have to do with the catalog titles that we were discussing? Obviously lower player prices is better than higher player prices... but what you were saying is that HD DVD is gaining some sort of catalog advantage on Blu-ray, and we (me and others) were simply pointing out that this isn't the case. HD DVD standalones will have the advantage of higher numbers of players in the installed base.


If more movies are available to buy at a lower cost, the side with more players sold will have an advantage.

Right now, movie title prices are still much higher than DVD, and the amount of titles displayed at retail is small.

When that changes, lower player prices, driving more player sales, will be a significant advantage.

$199 sells a heck of a lot more than $399.

Blu-ray standalone prices have dropped 50% in the last couple of months. There is no reason to believe they will not continue to drop. HD DVD prices will continue to be lower than Blu-ray prices during the 4th quarter.

At he prices HD DVD players are being sold at now, any and all price advantage will directly lead to greater sales.

The more players sold, the more catalog movies ( and day and date ) will be sold.

Both formats have available a critical mass of titles available to a new buyer to support a purchase decision.

But the retail prices and B&M shelf availablity have been a drag on sales, but the installed base volume (beside the PS3) has been too low to support retail price drops or greater stockage and shelf space allowances.

That is beginning to change as the greater volume of HD DVD players accumulates. By the fall, both the PS3 and the HD A2 and maybe cheaper alternatives will be sold at mass market volumes. $399 Blu-ray players will be sold in smaller volumes.

By this fall, its a new chapter as larger and larger volumes of installed sold players will be a market that is available to be marketed to by studios and retailers.

^ I guess that's why we have to continue looking at the nielsen numbers all the way through a few more months to see what happens in Q3 and Q4'07. That's a fair assessment of whether BD can answer the HD DVD player strategy with their Funai and other ODM'd players.

Should be interesting to watch this one play out, especially if the celerons and P4s can be removed with the next SOC for the red player (which I have no doubt can be done, and certainly has to be done to hit the 199 price point).

It appears if price is the only significant driver here, then BD's gameplan would be to stay within 20% of HD DVD pricing as the demand curve for blu players appears to be a couple of notches above the red player demand curve. ;)

I'd swap #1's "game machine" for "superior multimedia device." After all, it's selling the PS3 owners that use it for BD as well short to imply they bought this device for games alone, when that obviously is not the case.

Well for me, and I guess for some other adults the PC with a HD drive would be the ultimate "superior multimedia device".

Personally I'm staying away of all-in-one "cheap-by-the-dozen" gadgets. But I surely know that many people think the more functions the more better the device is. I think the less functions a device have the better the device is quality wise.

It appears if price is the only significant driver here, then BD's gameplan would be to stay within 20% of HD DVD pricing as the demand curve for blu players appears to be a couple of notches above the red player demand curve. ;)

If price was the only significant driver then HD DVD would be winning, there is obviously more to it than that.

There is another issue that seems to be ignored in the 'just wait till all those people buy the cheap standalone' theory. HD DVD standalone sales will be hurt by the Blockbuster announcement. Unless something else happens that gets positive news about HD DVD out there, people aren't going to buy in in large numbers because they are concerned about the future of the format.

$199 sells a heck of a lot more than $399.

Do we have any actual numbers on this?

When people see one side has half the movies* and half price players, the overall value is not any better.

I would be interested to see hardware sales numbers before assuming that dropping the prices for the players is making people believe that HD DVD is the right format to be buying.

Other influences seem to be convincing people that it is the right format to be dumping (as evidenced by a recent listing for a player used three times being sold along with all the movies the guy has, half not even watched).

* HD DVD will be missing 6 out of the top 10 titles so far for 2007, and only has 2 of the top 10 for 2006 (and none of the top 5!).

If price was the only significant driver then HD DVD would be winning, there is obviously more to it than that.
But you forget, or choose to, that PS3 owners get a *free* BD player which is the logical market reason that BD disk sales are ahead. Sony went to some trouble to explain this when the cost of the PS3 came out - the BD drive was essential to PS3 because of future game size - movie playing is an unintended benefit, and Sony was not increasing the PS3 cost to help BD studios. This is a good enough reason to label the largest category of BD players as game machines.

But you forget, or choose to, that PS3 owners get a *free* BD player which is the logical market reason that BD disk sales are ahead. Sony went to some trouble to explain this when the cost of the PS3 came out - the BD drive was essential to PS3 because of future game size - movie playing is an unintended benefit, and Sony was not increasing the PS3 cost to help BD. This is a good enough reason to label the largest category of BD players as game machines.

Agreed. And It's a hell of a lot more easy to market multifunction gadgets than it is to market standalone players. To be honest I have never seen any "good" long run marketing strategy for any standalones for common people / J6p's.

If price was the only significant driver then HD DVD would be winning, there is obviously more to it than that.

There is another issue that seems to be ignored in the 'just wait till all those people buy the cheap standalone' theory. HD DVD standalone sales will be hurt by the Blockbuster announcement. Unless something else happens that gets positive news about HD DVD out there, people aren't going to buy in in large numbers because they are concerned about the future of the format.

I mean price as a large delta. Even though BD's demand curve is higher than HDDVD's if the price was < 1/3, that could still create a problem. tigerdirect.com appears to have a large batch of HD-A1's that they're selling for 199. Given that a HD-A2 is $225, I'd say the HD-A1 should be $150 to be worth buying.

My point really is that, people will pay a price premium for BD, but the premium is not 3X, not 2X. maybe not even 1.5X HD DVD's price, so being within 1.2X HD DVD player prices would be a target to shoot for --- if the sigma 8634 SOC, some memory and the BD drive are the only major components in the box, the $199 price is certainly within reach, but this would probably be bargain basement cheap plastic, so if you have to pay 240 this xmas for a blue player that looks good next to you, then I say, it's worth it to a lot of people.

When people see one side has half the movies* and half price players, the overall value is not any better.



eh... maybe you're using the new math again. Please recount.

Titles released last week:

Blu-ray: Bridge to Terabithia (day-and-date)
HD DVD: Uncommon Bach

Also this was the week when the Blockbuster Blu-ray expansion was announced.

My forecast:
70/30 BD/HD

1. Ghost Rider BD
2. Bridge to Terabithia BD
3 Planet Earth HD DVD

68/32

Terabithia
Ghost Rider
PE

I think the spread between titles will be a lot closer than last week (no more 4:1 advantage to the first place title).

BD 71 / BD29

I'll have to Plagarize you on the titles, though Grubert:

1) Ghost Rider BD
2) Bridge to Terabithia BD
3) Planet Earth HDDVD

65/35

1) Bridge to Terabithia BD
2) Ghost Rider BD
3) Planet Earth HDDVD

68/32 bridge ontop.

67:33 Blu-ray, since I don't think the Blockbuster news had percolated to potential consumers until the weekend (if at all).

I'm gonna have to go with Grubert and UniSXRD on this one:

1. Ghost Rider BD
2. Bridge to Terabithia BD
3. Planet Earth HD DVD

I'll go with 75:25 BD. I base this on the Amazon sales ranking where HD DVD had the biggest dip between Tuesday and Friday. Where even PE on BD was ranked higher than HD DVD. The recovery for HD DVD started on Sunday....so the BB announcement had a nice impact on BD sales for most of last week + a big day-date title for BD.

Top titles:

1. BtT
2. PoTC - DMC
3. Ghost Rider

I'll go with 75:25 BD.

I think the real plazaman is more calculating than this.

I will say 64/36, but I may be off by a week (next weeks data). I certainly don't think anything more than 69/31 is possible even this week.

k

You gotta hand it to Sony...They trumped Toshiba yet again by offering an even MORE pathetic list of movies to choose from.

Some of those categories contain stuff I wouldn't even want for free (#1, #3, #5.)

I wouldn't say they are "more pathetic", but I have to agree. The "free" movies that both Toshiba and Sony are offering are terrible. They don't entice me in the slightest. It does make sense though. They probably pressed tons of these movies and they are just sitting around unsold.

I will go with optimistic :)

76:24 BD

1. Bridge to Terabithia BD
2. PoTC - DMC BD
3. Ghost Rider BD

Marek

I think the real plazaman is more calculating than this.

I will say 64/36, but I may be off by a week (next weeks data). I certainly don't think anything more than 69/31 is possible even this week.

k


I actually agree. I would guess 69:31 (5% more than the previous week) for last week due to BBI & other announcements, and say that we're back to 64:36 this week due to Univ. releases. 2 of those titles broke into the top 1XXs on amazon.

I wouldn't say they are "more pathetic", but I have to agree. The "free" movies that both Toshiba and Sony are offering are terrible. They don't entice me in the slightest. It does make sense though. They probably pressed tons of these movies and they are just sitting around unsold.

Taste goes a long way when it comes to movies, but disregarding that:

The HD DVD selection has several Oscar winners and a few classics in there with the "junk". The BD selection is almost ALL junk.

I'm lucky in the choices I was given for HD DVD because I love Apollo 13, Casablanca, and We Were Soldiers. I also am one of the very few who really enjoyed Sky Captain. For me, category D is the issue. I'm getting The Rundown because I don't think Blazing Saddles was funny enough to watch over and over again.

Taste goes a long way when it comes to movies, but disregarding that:

The HD DVD selection has several Oscar winners and a few classics in there with the "junk". The BD selection is almost ALL junk.

I'm lucky in the choices I was given for HD DVD because I love Apollo 13, Casablanca, and We Were Soldiers. I also am one of the very few who really enjoyed Sky Captain. For me, category D is the issue. I'm getting The Rundown because I don't think Blazing Saddles was funny enough to watch over and over again.
Perception is one thing, but..... have you counted the oscar winners of 2006? ...exercise left for reader. :D

It's not just top grossers in this century (see www.boxofficemojo.com ), but more studios typically means more awards. That and that Universal as a studio has made several questionable management decisions in their movies, both from movies as art and from the boxoffice standpoint.

I do agree Casablanca is a classic that must be in everyone's collection.

---

I've never been good at predicting the ratios, but I'll go out on a limb and guess last week and this weeks ratios BD:HD
69:31 (06/19 - this friday's HMM)
55:45 (06/26 - too many red exclusives to ignore in the stores)

Top HD DVD Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/24/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
3 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
4 LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA (WB, $39.99)
5 THE ULTIMATE MATRIX COLLECTION (WB, $119.99)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $39.99)
7 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
8 CASINO (UNI, $29.98)
9 BRUCE ALMIGHTY (UNI, $29.98)
10 FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-ray Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/24/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (BV, $34.99)
3 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (BV, $34.99)
5 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
6 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
7 APOCALYPTO (BV, $34.99)
8 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (BV, $34.99)
9 LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA (WB, $34.99)
10 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)

Source: Rentrak’s Retail Essentials ™.
Sales estimations are based on preliminary data provided through an exclusive arrangement with Rentrak Corp.’s Retail Essentials service. Point-of-Sale data is collected weekly and projected nationally for the U.S. bricks-and-mortar sales channel.

Here's something interesting that was pointed out in another thread. Looks like Discovery will start selling a different edition of Planet Earth on both HD DVD and BD. With Sigourney Weaver instead of David Attenborough which is how they aired it.

Supposed to be shipping 7/27 with a price of 99.95. Guess they think Weaver is worth 30 bucks extra.

Anyway. I think it says a lot about how much Warner think this box set will continue to sell in the future.

Here's the link to Discovery (http://shopping.discovery.com/product-65763.html)

Here's something interesting that was pointed out in another thread. Looks like Discovery will start selling a different edition of Planet Earth on both HD DVD and BD. With Sigourney Weaver instead of David Attenborough which is how they aired it.

Supposed to be shipping 7/27 with a price of 99.95. Guess they think Weaver is worth 30 bucks extra.

Anyway. I think it says a lot about how much Warner think this box set will continue to sell in the future.

Here's the link to Discovery (http://shopping.discovery.com/product-65763.html)

I think the MSRP of the existing version is $99.98 (see the post above yours), so apparently they think Sigourney is worth 3 cents less.

I think the MSRP of the existing version is $99.98 (see the post above yours), so apparently they think Sigourney is worth 3 cents less.

Yes, but if they are selling it for full mspr, as they are, and no one else is selling it at all? How much more would anyone have to pay to get that version instead of buying the regular version at for example Amazon?

Yes, but if they are selling it for full mspr, as they are, and no one else is selling it at all? How much more would anyone have to pay to get that version instead of buying the regular version at for example Amazon?

Ah yes...missed the part about it being through Discovery and assumed it would be available at other outlets.

I also am one of the very few who really enjoyed Sky Captain.

I liked Sky Captain quite a bit too. Not enough for it to push me towards an HD DVD player, but thats a different issue ;)

It reminded me so much of the old Superman cartoons.

I liked Sky Captain quite a bit too. Not enough for it to push me ....

There are quite a few things that appeal to me that I can not presently purchase, yet, I too came to a similar conclusion.

ted

^^ I have sky captain on both red and blu.

I have sky captain on both red and blu.

Why for God's sake, WHY??!! :rolleyes:

Top HD DVD Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/24/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 BREACH (UNI, $39.98)
3 THE COMPLETE MATRIX TRILOGY (WB, $99.99)
4 LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA (WB, $39.99)
5 THE ULTIMATE MATRIX COLLECTION (WB, $119.99)
6 THE DEPARTED (WB, $39.99)
7 BATMAN BEGINS (WB, $28.99)
8 CASINO (UNI, $29.98)
9 BRUCE ALMIGHTY (UNI, $29.98)
10 FEAR AND LOATHING IN LAS VEGAS (UNI, $29.98)


Top Blu-ray Sales

WEEK ENDED 6/24/2007

RANK TITLE (LABEL/DISTRIBUTOR, SRP)
1 PLANET EARTH: THE COMPLETE COLLECTION (BBC/WB, $99.98)
2 BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (BV, $34.99)
3 GHOST RIDER (SONY, $38.96)
4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST (BV, $34.99)
5 BLOOD DIAMOND (WB, $28.99)
6 CASINO ROYALE (MGM/SONY, $38.96)
7 APOCALYPTO (BV, $34.99)
8 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: BLACK PEARL (BV, $34.99)
9 LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA (WB, $34.99)
10 THE DEPARTED (WB, $34.99)

"Casino," "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas" and "Batman Begins" continue their constant re-appearance act on the Top 10 list, further proof that there is some validity to HD-DVD's 'catalogue sells' theory. And "Bruce Almighty" somehow sold enough copies to enter the Top 10 for HD-DVD, a place you are sure to find "The Big Lebowsky" next week if the amazon ranking and my own cursory search of several CC's and BB's in my area (all sold out of their "Lebowsky" copies) is to be believed. :)

Here's something interesting that was pointed out in another thread. Looks like Discovery will start selling a different edition of Planet Earth on both HD DVD and BD. With Sigourney Weaver instead of David Attenborough which is how they aired it.

Supposed to be shipping 7/27 with a price of 99.95. Guess they think Weaver is worth 30 bucks extra.

Anyway. I think it says a lot about how much Warner think this box set will continue to sell in the future.

Here's the link to Discovery (http://shopping.discovery.com/product-65763.html)

Why don't they just release a version with both commentaries? Seriously the audio track as DD 448 kbps how hard would it of been to put both tracks on the inital release?

Why don't they just release a version with both commentaries? Seriously the audio track as DD 448 kbps how hard would it of been to put both tracks on the inital release?

LOL it's already over compressed as it his.. don't ask for more even if's it only about 1.5gig..

Why for God's sake, WHY??!! :rolleyes:

"Casino," "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas" and "Batman Begins" continue their constant re-appearance act on the Top 10 list, further proof that there is some validity to HD-DVD's 'catalogue sells' theory.

In the beginning, I was intrigued with comparing both formats, so I tried to see the differences in titles like Aeon Flux, PotO, Last Samurai, Sky Captain. Usually, I picked the HD when it came out and then BD later. I don't do that anymore because, it turned out to be a stupid way to throw away good money. In the beginning, I was just grateful for the chance to own legitimate legal HDM of any format and bought indiscriminately. Now, the novelty has died down.

In past weeks, the catalog titles on the top 10 list form a very small fraction of the top selling one, usually < 1/10 as a ratio of top selling title that week. Usually, a lot of older released catalog titles on the HD list have heralded some of the lowest ratio weeks for HD DVD. I won't speculate anymore to avoid further embarassment with wrong predictions, since tomorrow, HMM Nielsen numbers will be out.

LOL it's already over compressed as it his.. don't ask for more even if's it only about 1.5gig..

It's not even 1.5 GB for the second audio track, it's only 514 MB based on the calculations

Why for God's sake, WHY??!! :rolleyes:



"Casino," "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas" and "Batman Begins" continue their constant re-appearance act on the Top 10 list, further proof that there is some validity to HD-DVD's 'catalogue sells' theory. And "Bruce Almighty" somehow sold enough copies to enter the Top 10 for HD-DVD, a place you are sure to find "The Big Lebowsky" next week if the amazon ranking and my own cursory search of several CC's and BB's in my area (all sold out of their "Lebowsky" copies) is to be believed. :)

Or it could just be that HD DVDs volume is so low that anything that sells relatively well is a top 10 seller.

Or it could be that the Rentrak rank has little correspondence with Nielsen numbers.

Anyone wanna bet that the Pirates movies will do better than 4 and 8 on the BD list at Nielsen?

Batman Begins seems to be the only catalogue title that is consistently high enough to actually be a top ten HD DVD week after week.

There has been some upward movements on Amazon by Casino and some other titles this week though. Unless it's been included in some sale somewhere the only reason I can think of is that there is some effect of the 70.000 players sold in the last 7 weeks finally kicking in.

Week 70/30
YTD 67/33
SI 59/41

I win!! :D

Top 10 hidef sellers

1 (1) Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2 (-) Bridge to Terabithia BD 84.65
3 (8) Casino Royale BD 59.46
4 (2) Planet Earth HD 43.03
5 (4) Apocalypto BD 35.65
6 (5) PotC DMC BD 34.14
7 (6) Planet Earth BD 33.51
8 (7) PotC CBP BD 28.53
9 (-) Open Season BD 23.10
10 (3) Breach 22.71

xx Letters from Iwo Jima BD 14.80
xx Batman Begins HD 13.50
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HD 10.96
xx Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 9.01

Top 10 aggregate

1. Ghost Rider 100.00
2. Bridge to Terabithia 84.65
4. Planet Earth 76.53
3. Casino Royale 59.46
5. Apocalypto 35.65
6. PotC DMC 34.14
7. PotC CBP 28.53
8. Letters from Iwo Jima 25.76
9. Open Season 23.10
10. Breach 22.71

Yikes, "Casino Royale" is the "Batman Begins" of Blu-ray releases: down some weeks but never out and always ready to roar back into the top of the charts. Bad week for HD-DVD with the effect of the Blockbuster announcement and the drumbeat of negative media stories in full effect. If this is bad as it gets though (and the new HD-DVD releases and drop in MSRP price on July 1st have a positive effect on sales) then HD-DVD will have survived its toughest test yet and lived to fight another series of battles throughout the rest of 2007. Congrats to Blu-ray though, this was their week! :(

Yikes, "Casino Royale" is the "Batman Begins" of Blu-ray releases: down some weeks but never out and always ready to roar back into the top of the charts. Bad week for HD-DVD with the effect of the Blockbuster announcement and the drumbeat of negative media stories in full effect. If this is bad as it gets though (and the new HD-DVD releases and drop in MSRP price on July 1st have an effect) then HD-DVD will have survived and lived to fight another series of battle throughout the rest of 2007. Congrats to Blu-ray though, this was their week! :(

There were no new releases for HD DVD this week, next week with no BD exlusives and a bunch of catalog stuff from HD DVD would hopefully make a big difference.

Only time will tell how much the blockbuster announcement will matter.

Week 70/30
YTD 67/33
SI 59/41

I win!! :D
Wow. BD's momentum continues. It seems HD DVD just can't seem to close the market share gap, despite low-cost players. Earlier in this thread I said I thought summer was HD DVD's best shot at getting closer to 50:50. Maybe next week when the Blockbuster blitz has quieted down? If they don't close the gap soon I'm starting to think they never will.

Not only did I not get the percentage or the top 3 but I also predicted that Breach would be out of the top 10.

Told you I was bad at this stuff.

I just wonder how many units Batman Begins would sell on Blu-ray

I just wonder how many units Batman Begins would sell on Blu-ray

Ditto, hopefully we will find out before the end of the year.

/crosses fingers

Day Week YTD SI
01/07 63.3/36.7 63.3/36.7 41.2/58.8
01/14 68.2/31.8 65.7/34.3 43.2/56.8
01/21 67.8/32.2 66.4/33.6 45.1/54.9
01/28 68.8/31.2 67.0/33.0 46.7/53.3
02/04 69.0/31.0 67.4/32.6 48.1/51.9
02/11 69.6/30.4 67.7/32.3 49.3/50.7
02/18 65.0/35.0 67.4/32.6 50.3/49.7
02/25 68.5/31.5 67.4/32.6 51.5/48.5
03/04 65.7/34.3 67.2/32.8 52.2/47.8
03/11 68.7/31.3 67.9/32.1 52.8/47.2
03/18 81.7/18.3 69.2/30.8 54.3/45.7
03/25 n/a 70.4/29.6 55.6/44.4
04/01 62/38 69.9/30.1 56.2/43.8
04/08 62.4/37.6 69.4/30.6 56.4/43.6
04/15 61/39 69/31 57/43
04/22 52/48 68/32 57/43
04/29 71/29 68/32 58/42
05/06 60/40 68/32 57/43
05/13 62/38 68/32 57/43
05/20 58/42 67/33 57/43
05/27 69/31 67/33 58/42
06/03 61/39 67/33 59/41
06/10 66/34 67/33 59/41
06/17 64/36 67/33 59/41
06/24 70/30 67/33 59/41

I like this chart because it allows you to see trends easily. Data was out early this week, very nice.

If this is bad as it gets though (and the new HD-DVD releases and drop in MSRP price on July 1st have a positive effect on sales) then HD-DVD will have survived its toughest test yet and lived to fight another series of battles throughout the rest of 2007. How was this week their toughest yet? There was only one Blu-ray exclusive this week, and it was not a huge blockbuster. And I love the shiny optimism about the lower prices, but they've been going on for what, a month now? It hasn't done anything for their numbers. It actually looks like HD DVD's slowing down, or at the very least growing much slower than Blu-ray. How are the price cuts that already exist going to continue to help if they're not helping now?

Nice. Better then my prediction.

How was this week their toughest yet? There was only one Blu-ray exclusive this week, and it was not a huge blockbuster. And I love the shiny optimism about the lower prices, but they've been going on for what, a month now? It hasn't done anything for their numbers. It actually looks like HD DVD's slowing down, or at the very least growing much slower than Blu-ray. How are the price cuts that already exist going to continue to help if they're not helping now?

I agree. If anyone has been thinking about buying an HD-DVD player, they should wait until later in the year when they'll be going for $39.99. :) :)

I agree. If anyone has been thinking about buying an HD-DVD player, they should wait until later in the year when they'll be going for $39.99. :) :)On eBay!

*rimshot*

Top 10 hidef sellers

1 (1) Ghost Rider BD 100.00
2 (-) Bridge to Terabithia BD 84.65
3 (8) Casino Royale BD 59.46
4 (2) Planet Earth HD 43.03
5 (4) Apocalypto BD 35.65
6 (5) PotC DMC BD 34.14
7 (6) Planet Earth BD 33.51
8 (7) PotC CBP BD 28.53
9 (-) Open Season BD 23.10
10 (3) Breach 22.71

xx Letters from Iwo Jima BD 14.80
xx Batman Begins HD 13.50
xx Letters from Iwo Jima HD 10.96
xx Complete Matrix Trilogy HD 9.01

Top 10 aggregate

1. Ghost Rider 100.00
2. Bridge to Terabithia 84.65
4. Planet Earth 76.53
3. Casino Royale 59.46
5. Apocalypto 35.65
6. PotC DMC 34.14
7. Planet Earth 33.51
8. PotC CBP 28.53
9. Open Season 23.10
10. Breach 22.71

A little weird this week. We are obviously looking at very low total sales. Possibly one of the lowest weeks all year.

I don't think you can put Ghost Rider at more than 7.000 at best. The lowest selling number one in a while I think. That would mean that as discussed there was a dip for Planet Earth although it also went down on BD.

The big story is off course that Casino Royale seems to have had a MUCH better week than lately as well as Pirates and Apocalypto continuing to loose sales rather quickly.

Let's please keep the fanboyism out of this thread. Thanks.

My analysis:

1. High ranking of Casino Royale indicates many new BD players were sold.

2. Bridge to Terabithia probably did 5% of gross which would account for an extra bump to BD share..

3. As I pointed out earlier the BB announcement came on Monday and looking even at Amazon, there was a sharp drop in HD DVD sales - including PE.

As for health of the repsective formats. 30% is a healthy market share with no new releases and in the face of a decided negative news story that was picked up by the general media. However, even without any news, 30% market share is considered a viable market share in any business anywhere, any time :)

The other observation that I made was that the top 10 share is very much dominated by BD - perhaps by way more than 70% share. Which means deeper down the rankings HD DVD on avg. probably sold more. In other words there is more consistent (if still small) sales across titles in HD DVD v. BD. Hence why BD continues to have buy one get one and x% off etc type deals to move older catalog titles....

So there is my analysis by looking at this data :)

As for hardware sales. Even if Tosh sold 70K new players, Sony must have sold more than 70K PS3 players....at least that is what I think based on CR showing up in the top 5.

Best Buy for instance had a package deal with the PS3 which included one BD title and one game....IF you bought a Sony display (which was marked down by $500 from MSRP) buying the PS3 bundle would get you a $400 discount on the PS3 + a further $200 on the display....I bet they moved a couple of thousand units that way.

i don't get poor matrix sales, it should be doing better...

i don't get poor matrix sales, it should be doing better...

Overpriced. Most people only want the first one. Most people dont want to spend that much on a format that is on the decline. Pretty simple really.

i don't get poor matrix sales, it should be doing better...

It is on a format which has made "cheap players and discs" a cornerstone of their marketing push. Releasing a high priced box set doesn't fit that demographic.

It is on a format which has made "cheap players and discs" a cornerstone of their marketing push. Releasing a high priced box set doesn't fit that demographic.


maybe but then look at PE?

Week 70/30
YTD 67/33
SI 59/41

I win!! :D
Where did you predict 70/30? I predicted 69/31. That's the closest I got for the week :(

maybe but then look at PE?

The obvious anomaly. It sells better on HD DVD than Blu-ray for some reason, which is the complete opposite of other Warner releases. I'm not exactly sure why it has been such a huge success for the format. Its almost as if people are picking up this title and nothing else.

maybe but then look at PE?

I said it before - Planet Earth is excellent value for money. It is new on disc, has lots of eye candy, and you can watch fragments or show to friends without ruining the plot.

Where did you predict 70/30? I predicted 69/31. That's the closest I got for the week :(

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10893122&&#post10893122

I also got #1 and #2 right - would have been perfect were it not for that 007 bloke slipping ahead of PE. ;)

Overpriced. Most people only want the first one. Most people dont want to spend that much on a format that is on the decline. Pretty simple really.

What's the best selling boxed set on BD? Enough said :rolleyes:

i don't get poor matrix sales, it should be doing better...

Matrix has been on DVD 12 separate releases. It is a catalog title.

I think people need to reconsider the role of catalogers in nextgen. Right now, the early adopters all have large collections, so it is difficult to motivate them to buy catalog titles, especially for high prices (like the boxed sets which contain a lot of stuff that few people want).

I personally will wait until I can buy only the first movie (on Blu-ray but that is another matter).

There were no new releases for HD DVD this week, next week with no BD exlusives and a bunch of catalog stuff from HD DVD would hopefully make a big difference.

Going by Amazon.com, it won't. HD DVD did better than the week before, but only slightly. If last week was 70:30, amazon suggests 60:40


What's the best selling boxed set on BD?

That's a new release though. Matrix is catalogue.

I do think there's an element of wrong price for that audience but at the same time I don't think it would have done well on Blu-ray either. I'm not paying $70 for two films I don't even want. I'll take The Matrix at Christmas

The other observation that I made was that the top 10 share is very much dominated by BD - perhaps by way more than 70% share. Which means deeper down the rankings HD DVD on avg. probably sold more. In other words there is more consistent (if still small) sales across titles in HD DVD v. BD. Hence why BD continues to have buy one get one and x% off etc type deals to move older catalog titles....



Great Plazman you should Email Toshibas marketing department and offer this new Slogan.

"HD DVD : We dominate Blu Ray for the lowest titles sold!"

or

"HD DVD " We sell the most of the least bought titles!"

The Matrix released individually would sell far better, of course (and hopefully Warner goes that route with Blu-ray), but it has been released an awfully large number of times in a pretty short period of time. Wonder when we'll see SI go to 60/40...

The obvious anomaly. It sells better on HD DVD than Blu-ray for some reason, which is the complete opposite of other Warner releases. I'm not exactly sure why it has been such a huge success for the format. Its almost as if people are picking up this title and nothing else.

Most of the people who buy the PE HD-DVD probably don’t even have HD-DVD players. Go and read all of the negative feedback/comments from SDDVD owners on Amazon. People know PE is filmed in HD so they think that HD-DVD is just a normal version that that will play in HD on SD-DVD players.

It’s much harder to be confused about the Blu-ray version.

How was this week their toughest yet? There was only one Blu-ray exclusive this week, and it was not a huge blockbuster.
Yeah, this week wasn't nearly as "tough" for HD-DVD as the Casino Royale or NATM opening weeks. It's the third-highest ratio for a week (that we know of), but it doesn't seem like it should have been the third-toughest week yet.

How are the price cuts that already exist going to continue to help if they're not helping now?
Didn't their price cut sale end already anyways?

Data was out early this week, very nice.
Maybe they got annoyed with our constant page refreshes pegging their site in the early afternoon, so they just got it up before business hours to be done with it. :-)

Great Plazman you should Email Toshibas marketing department and offer this new Slogan.

"HD DVD : We dominate Blu Ray for the lowest titles sold!"

or

"HD DVD " We sell the most of the least bought titles!"

Actually the format war will not be decided by marketing slogans. You have to go below the skin deep marketing and PR fluff to try to understand the true picture...

HD DVD is selling better across a wider spectrum of titles....which is a good thing. IMO.

"HD DVD " We sell the most of the least bought titles!"

:D Comedy gold. :D

Didn't their price cut sale end already anyways?
Yes, and it starts up again on Sunday--only this time it's not an instant rebate, it's a permanent price reduction.

HD DVD is selling better across a wider spectrum of titles....which is a good thing. IMO.YOu keep on saying this, and it makes no sense, yet you have never explained where you get this when asked. If HD DVD is selling better across a wider spectrum of titles, wouldn't they just be selling better?

HD DVD is selling better across a wider spectrum of titles....which is a good thing. IMO.

lol

There were no new releases for HD DVD this week, next week with no BD exlusives and a bunch of catalog stuff from HD DVD would hopefully make a big difference.

Only time will tell how much the blockbuster announcement will matter.
Things do not happen overnight. I expect the BlockBuster thing will take months of eyeballs and major toy buying sessions (Thanksgiving, xmas) to fully exert some pull in player retail.

The BD players showing up at around $350 MSRP or less will probably be more positive in pushing this as well.

Things do not happen overnight. I expect the BlockBuster thing will take months of eyeballs and major toy buying sessions (Thanksgiving, xmas) to fully exert some pull in player retail.

The BD players showing up at around $350 MSRP or less will probably be more positive in pushing this as well.

I was talking about the Blockbuster announcements effect on HD DVD purchasing today, not the future BD purchases which would take longer to show up as stores actually get the new BD content.

Most of the people who buy the PE HD-DVD probably don’t even have HD-DVD players.

Could you let us know how you came up with MOST??? Maybe if you had said a few someone would have believed you.

It's nice to see Blu-ray is widening its lead over HD-DVD. Next Friday's numbers will be very telling. If Blu-ray leads in a week where they had no exclusive releases and HD-DVD had 14, then the writing is clearly on wall about this format war.

~Josh

As for hardware sales. Even if Tosh sold 70K new players, Sony must have sold more than 70K PS3 players....at least that is what I think based on CR showing up in the top 5.

Best Buy for instance had a package deal with the PS3 which included one BD title and one game....IF you bought a Sony display (which was marked down by $500 from MSRP) buying the PS3 bundle would get you a $400 discount on the PS3 + a further $200 on the display....I bet they moved a couple of thousand units that way.

Sounds unlikely that a PS3 promotion would have such an impact but then it is a very strange bump in Casino Royale sales after a long string of weeks with sales at roughly half the numbers. On the other hand if Sony had suddenly sold 70.000 PS3 in a week I'ld be pretty sure we would have heard about it.